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000
FXUS61 KRLX 282326
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
726 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level disturbance moves through overnight. High pressure
builds in for Wednesday. Cooler for the remainder of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
715 PM UPDATE...

No significant changes with the evening update. Still like
isolated shra mention this evening with passage of vort axis. The
low level winds may lay down enough for some predawn river valley
fog.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

NAM is showing precipitation along moisture field and vorticity
maximum associated with upper level disturbance. Other models not in
agreement with NAM but NAM is very good in these situations.
Therefore included small POPs overnight in response to propagation
of disturbance. High pressure builds in for Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Dry and warm to start the period...with high pressure in control.
High will gradually move east on Thursday out ahead of an
approaching front...with moisture creeping into the mountainous
counties on return flow...creating a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms. Cold front will sink south across the area Friday
into Saturday...creating a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms...before stalling out across the area over the
weekend...with increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms...particularly across the south.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Frontal boundary draped across mid Mississippi and Ohio valleys
begins to lift northward Sunday evening into early Monday morning.
Best chances for storms to fire will be in the southern part of the
forecast area. Front will continue to linger over the region into
Tuesday with more chances for showers and thunderstorms.
Daytime temperatures seasonable into the 80s. Dew points bumping up
near 70 in the Kanawha and Ohio river valleys. Exact placement of
the front still hard to pin point...Euro showing a boundary more to
the south of our area against the GFS. Highest chances for showers
and storms throughout this part of the holiday weekend will be
concentrated in the southern portions of the CWA, where heavy
downpours are possible.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR this evening. An upper level disturbance will move thru
tonight with just an isolated shra threat. The low level winds
should lie down enough for some late IFR or worse river valley fog
with more of a low cig scenario for KBKW. Any fog and low stratus
will burn off tomorrow morning for a return to VFR conditions
areawide with just a few flat CU around for the aftn.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Low level winds may stay up enough to prevent
IFR river valley fog.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EDT 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR possible in thunderstorms next weekend.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL
NEAR TERM...RPY/30/99
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...30




000
FXUS61 KRLX 282326
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
726 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level disturbance moves through overnight. High pressure
builds in for Wednesday. Cooler for the remainder of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
715 PM UPDATE...

No significant changes with the evening update. Still like
isolated shra mention this evening with passage of vort axis. The
low level winds may lay down enough for some predawn river valley
fog.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

NAM is showing precipitation along moisture field and vorticity
maximum associated with upper level disturbance. Other models not in
agreement with NAM but NAM is very good in these situations.
Therefore included small POPs overnight in response to propagation
of disturbance. High pressure builds in for Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Dry and warm to start the period...with high pressure in control.
High will gradually move east on Thursday out ahead of an
approaching front...with moisture creeping into the mountainous
counties on return flow...creating a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms. Cold front will sink south across the area Friday
into Saturday...creating a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms...before stalling out across the area over the
weekend...with increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms...particularly across the south.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Frontal boundary draped across mid Mississippi and Ohio valleys
begins to lift northward Sunday evening into early Monday morning.
Best chances for storms to fire will be in the southern part of the
forecast area. Front will continue to linger over the region into
Tuesday with more chances for showers and thunderstorms.
Daytime temperatures seasonable into the 80s. Dew points bumping up
near 70 in the Kanawha and Ohio river valleys. Exact placement of
the front still hard to pin point...Euro showing a boundary more to
the south of our area against the GFS. Highest chances for showers
and storms throughout this part of the holiday weekend will be
concentrated in the southern portions of the CWA, where heavy
downpours are possible.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR this evening. An upper level disturbance will move thru
tonight with just an isolated shra threat. The low level winds
should lie down enough for some late IFR or worse river valley fog
with more of a low cig scenario for KBKW. Any fog and low stratus
will burn off tomorrow morning for a return to VFR conditions
areawide with just a few flat CU around for the aftn.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Low level winds may stay up enough to prevent
IFR river valley fog.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EDT 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR possible in thunderstorms next weekend.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL
NEAR TERM...RPY/30/99
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...30




000
FXUS61 KRLX 281815
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
215 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level disturbance moves through overnight. High pressure
builds in for Wednesday. Cooler for the remainder of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NAM is showing precipitation along moisture field and vorticity
maximum associated with upper level disturbance. Other models not in
agreement with NAM but NAM is very good in these situations.
Therefore included small POPs overnight in response to propagation
of disturbance. High pressure builds in for Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Dry and warm to start the period...with high pressure in control.
High will gradually move east on Thursday out ahead of an
approaching front...with moisture creeping into the mountainous
counties on return flow...creating a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms. Cold front will sink south across the area Friday
into Saturday...creating a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms...before stalling out across the area over the
weekend...with increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms...particularly across the south.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Frontal boundary draped across mid Mississippi and Ohio valleys
begins to lift northward Sunday evening into early Monday morning.
Best chances for storms to fire will be in the southern part of the
forecast area. Front will continue to linger over the region into
Tuesday with more chances for showers and thunderstorms.
Daytime temperatures seasonable into the 80s. Dew points bumping up
near 70 in the Kanawha and Ohio river valleys. Exact placement of
the front still hard to pin point...Euro showing a boundary more to
the south of our area against the GFS. Highest chances for showers
and storms throughout this part of the holiday weekend will be
concentrated in the southern portions of the CWA, where heavy
downpours are possible.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Cumulus field will form across the area this afternoon. MVFR
isolated showers associated with upper level disturbance this
evening through tonight. Fog could develop across the southern
mountains of WV should burn off by 13Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Showers overnight may or may not form.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR possible in thunderstorms next weekend.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL
NEAR TERM...RPY/99
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...APR
AVIATION...RPY/99




000
FXUS61 KRLX 281815
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
215 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level disturbance moves through overnight. High pressure
builds in for Wednesday. Cooler for the remainder of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NAM is showing precipitation along moisture field and vorticity
maximum associated with upper level disturbance. Other models not in
agreement with NAM but NAM is very good in these situations.
Therefore included small POPs overnight in response to propagation
of disturbance. High pressure builds in for Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Dry and warm to start the period...with high pressure in control.
High will gradually move east on Thursday out ahead of an
approaching front...with moisture creeping into the mountainous
counties on return flow...creating a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms. Cold front will sink south across the area Friday
into Saturday...creating a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms...before stalling out across the area over the
weekend...with increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms...particularly across the south.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Frontal boundary draped across mid Mississippi and Ohio valleys
begins to lift northward Sunday evening into early Monday morning.
Best chances for storms to fire will be in the southern part of the
forecast area. Front will continue to linger over the region into
Tuesday with more chances for showers and thunderstorms.
Daytime temperatures seasonable into the 80s. Dew points bumping up
near 70 in the Kanawha and Ohio river valleys. Exact placement of
the front still hard to pin point...Euro showing a boundary more to
the south of our area against the GFS. Highest chances for showers
and storms throughout this part of the holiday weekend will be
concentrated in the southern portions of the CWA, where heavy
downpours are possible.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Cumulus field will form across the area this afternoon. MVFR
isolated showers associated with upper level disturbance this
evening through tonight. Fog could develop across the southern
mountains of WV should burn off by 13Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Showers overnight may or may not form.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR possible in thunderstorms next weekend.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL
NEAR TERM...RPY/99
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...APR
AVIATION...RPY/99




000
FXUS61 KRLX 281756
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
148 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level disturbance moves through overnight. High pressure
builds in for Wednesday. Cooler for the remainder of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NAM is showing precipitation along moisture field and vorticity
maximum associated with upper level disturbance. Other models not in
agreement with NAM but NAM is very good in these situations.
Therefore included small POPs overnight in response to propagation
of disturbance. High pressure builds in for Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
No changes, forecast looks on track. Previous discussion
follows...

Upper level trough moving through during the short term, but
behind the cold front moisture should be somewhat limited. Have
POPs lingering in the mountains Tuesday night. Have a slight
chance of POPs re-developing Thursday afternoon and evening
across the elevated heat source of the mountains. Again moisture
may be to limited to get more than some cumulus popping.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Have some lingering POPs associated with upper trough Friday and
Friday night, however moisture may be too limited and have surface
high pressure in the vicinity. Cold front sinks in for the
weekend. Followed WPC guidance for POPs on this, with highest POPs
across the south as a surface wave rides up the front.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Cumulus field will form across the area this afternoon. MVFR
isolated showers associated with upper level disturbance this
evening through tonight. Fog could develop across the southern
mountains of WV should burn off by 13Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Showers overnight may or may not form.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR possible in thunderstorms next weekend.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RPY/JW/AJV
NEAR TERM...RPY/AJV
SHORT TERM...JW/MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...RPY/AJV




000
FXUS61 KRLX 281756
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
148 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level disturbance moves through overnight. High pressure
builds in for Wednesday. Cooler for the remainder of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NAM is showing precipitation along moisture field and vorticity
maximum associated with upper level disturbance. Other models not in
agreement with NAM but NAM is very good in these situations.
Therefore included small POPs overnight in response to propagation
of disturbance. High pressure builds in for Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
No changes, forecast looks on track. Previous discussion
follows...

Upper level trough moving through during the short term, but
behind the cold front moisture should be somewhat limited. Have
POPs lingering in the mountains Tuesday night. Have a slight
chance of POPs re-developing Thursday afternoon and evening
across the elevated heat source of the mountains. Again moisture
may be to limited to get more than some cumulus popping.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Have some lingering POPs associated with upper trough Friday and
Friday night, however moisture may be too limited and have surface
high pressure in the vicinity. Cold front sinks in for the
weekend. Followed WPC guidance for POPs on this, with highest POPs
across the south as a surface wave rides up the front.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Cumulus field will form across the area this afternoon. MVFR
isolated showers associated with upper level disturbance this
evening through tonight. Fog could develop across the southern
mountains of WV should burn off by 13Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Showers overnight may or may not form.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR possible in thunderstorms next weekend.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RPY/JW/AJV
NEAR TERM...RPY/AJV
SHORT TERM...JW/MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...RPY/AJV




000
FXUS61 KRLX 281730
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
123 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A reinforcing cold front moves through today. Cooler for the
remainder of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Skies have cleared in the western zones so lowered sky cover until
cumulus forms later today.  Changed temperatures as well...went with
MOS guidance and raised temperatures across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
No changes, forecast looks on track. Previous discussion
follows...

Upper level trough moving through during the short term, but
behind the cold front moisture should be somewhat limited. Have
POPs lingering in the mountains Tuesday night. Have a slight
chance of POPs re-developing Thursday afternoon and evening
across the elevated heat source of the mountains. Again moisture
may be to limited to get more than some cumulus popping.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Have some lingering POPs associated with upper trough Friday and
Friday night, however moisture may be too limited and have surface
high pressure in the vicinity. Cold front sinks in for the
weekend. Followed WPC guidance for POPs on this, with highest POPs
across the south as a surface wave rides up the front.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Cumulus field will form across the area this afternoon. MVFR
isolated showers associated with upper level disturbance this
evening through tonight. Fog could develop across the southern
mountains of WV should burn off by 13Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Showers overnight may or may not form.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR possible in thunderstorms next weekend.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/JW
NEAR TERM...JS/RPY/99
SHORT TERM...JW/MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...RPY/99




000
FXUS61 KRLX 281321
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
916 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A reinforcing cold front moves through today. Cooler for the
remainder of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Skies have cleared in the western zones so lowered sky cover until
cumulus forms later today.  Changed temperatures as well...went with
MOS guidance and raised temperatures across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
No changes, forecast looks on track. Previous discussion
follows...

Upper level trough moving through during the short term, but
behind the cold front moisture should be somewhat limited. Have
POPs lingering in the mountains Tuesday night. Have a slight
chance of POPs re-developing Thursday afternoon and evening
across the elevated heat source of the mountains. Again moisture
may be to limited to get more than some cumulus popping.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Have some lingering POPs associated with upper trough Friday and
Friday night, however moisture may be too limited and have surface
high pressure in the vicinity. Cold front sinks in for the
weekend. Followed WPC guidance for POPs on this, with highest POPs
across the south as a surface wave rides up the front.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Showers formed on a weak boundary that will exit the area by 12z.
MVFR/IFR conditions in VSBYS/CIGS will quickly become VFR after
13z.  Afternoon VFR cu to develop then briefly become bkn then
sct out by evening...as high pressure builds in across the
region. MVFR/IFR Fog is expected to form between 06z and 08z and
continue through the rest of the forecast period.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of fog forming may vary during the
early morning hours Wednesday.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR possible in Thunderstorms Monday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/JW
NEAR TERM...JS/RPY/99
SHORT TERM...JW/MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...JS




000
FXUS61 KRLX 281316 CCA
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
630 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A reinforcing cold front moves through today. Cooler for the
remainder of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...added slight chc pops in for the mountain zones for the
next couple of hours...as showers formed on a weak boundary. These
showers are very light and will exit the cwa by 12z. Otherwise no
other changes are expected.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Weak cold front to push through the region today. Moisture is
limited with this front. Still there might be some left over low
level moisture to kick a sprinkle or shower this
afternoon...mainly across the northern areas and in the mountain
zones.

Tonight high pressure builds into the region bringing cooler and
drier air into the area...with patchy fog forming.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
No changes, forecast looks on track. Previous discussion
follows...

Upper level trough moving through during the short term, but
behind the cold front moisture should be somewhat limited. Have
POPs lingering in the mountains Tuesday night. Have a slight
chance of POPs re-developing Thursday afternoon and evening
across the elevated heat source of the mountains. Again moisture
may be to limited to get more than some cumulus popping.

&&


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Have some lingering POPs associated with upper trough Friday and
Friday night, however moisture may be too limited and have surface
high pressure in the vicinity. Cold front sinks in for the
weekend. Followed WPC guidance for POPs on this, with highest POPs
across the south as a surface wave rides up the front.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Showers formed on a weak boundary that will exit the area by 12z.
MVFR/IFR conditions in VSBYS/CIGS will quickly become VFR after
13z.  Afternoon VFR cu to develop then briefly become bkn then
sct out by evening...as high pressure builds in across the
region. MVFR/IFR Fog is expected to form between 06z and 08z and
continue through the rest of the forecast period.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of fog forming may vary during the
early morning hours Wednesday.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR possible in Thunderstorms Monday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/JW
NEAR TERM...JS
SHORT TERM...JW/MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...JS




000
FXUS61 KRLX 281316 CCA
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
630 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A reinforcing cold front moves through today. Cooler for the
remainder of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...added slight chc pops in for the mountain zones for the
next couple of hours...as showers formed on a weak boundary. These
showers are very light and will exit the cwa by 12z. Otherwise no
other changes are expected.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Weak cold front to push through the region today. Moisture is
limited with this front. Still there might be some left over low
level moisture to kick a sprinkle or shower this
afternoon...mainly across the northern areas and in the mountain
zones.

Tonight high pressure builds into the region bringing cooler and
drier air into the area...with patchy fog forming.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
No changes, forecast looks on track. Previous discussion
follows...

Upper level trough moving through during the short term, but
behind the cold front moisture should be somewhat limited. Have
POPs lingering in the mountains Tuesday night. Have a slight
chance of POPs re-developing Thursday afternoon and evening
across the elevated heat source of the mountains. Again moisture
may be to limited to get more than some cumulus popping.

&&


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Have some lingering POPs associated with upper trough Friday and
Friday night, however moisture may be too limited and have surface
high pressure in the vicinity. Cold front sinks in for the
weekend. Followed WPC guidance for POPs on this, with highest POPs
across the south as a surface wave rides up the front.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Showers formed on a weak boundary that will exit the area by 12z.
MVFR/IFR conditions in VSBYS/CIGS will quickly become VFR after
13z.  Afternoon VFR cu to develop then briefly become bkn then
sct out by evening...as high pressure builds in across the
region. MVFR/IFR Fog is expected to form between 06z and 08z and
continue through the rest of the forecast period.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of fog forming may vary during the
early morning hours Wednesday.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR possible in Thunderstorms Monday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/JW
NEAR TERM...JS
SHORT TERM...JW/MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...JS




000
FXUS61 KRLX 281030
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
630 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A reinforcing cold front moves through today. Cooler for the
remainder of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...added slight chc pops in for the mountain zones for the
next couple of hours...as showers formed on a weak boundary. These
showers are very light and will exit the cwa by 12z. Otherwise no
other changes are expected.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Weak cold front to push through the region today. Moisture is
limited with this front. Still there might be some left over low
level moisture to kick a sprinkle or shower this
afternoon...mainly across the northern areas and in the mountain
zones.

Tonight high pressure builds into the region bringing cooler and
drier air into the area...with patchy fog forming.


.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
No changes, forecast looks on track. Previous discussion
follows...

Upper level trough moving through during the short term, but
behind the cold front moisture should be somewhat limited. Have
POPs lingering in the mountains Tuesday night. Have a slight
chance of POPs re-developing Thursday afternoon and evening
across the elevated heat source of the mountains. Again moisture
may be to limited to get more than some cumulus popping.

&&


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Have some lingering POPs associated with upper trough Friday and
Friday night, however moisture may be too limited and have surface
high pressure in the vicinity. Cold front sinks in for the
weekend. Followed WPC guidance for POPs on this, with highest POPs
across the south as a surface wave rides up the front.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Showers formed on a weak boundary that will exit the area by 12z.
MVFR/IFR conditions in VSBYS/CIGS will quickly become VFR after
13z.  Afternoon VFR cu to develop then briefly become bkn then
sct out by evening...as high pressure builds in across the
region. MVFR/IFR Fog is expected to form between 06z and 08z and
continue through the rest of the forecast period.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of fog forming may vary during the
early morning hours Wednesday.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR possible in Thunderstorms Monday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/JW
NEAR TERM...JS
SHORT TERM...JW/MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...JS




000
FXUS61 KRLX 280720
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
320 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A reinforcing cold front moves through today. Cooler for the
remainder of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Weak cold front to push through the region today. Moisture is
limited with this front. Still there might be some left over low
level moisture to kick a sprinkle or shower this
afternoon...mainly across the northern areas and in the mountain
zones.

Tonight high pressure builds into the region bringing cooler and
drier air into the area.


.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
No changes, forecast looks on track. Previous discussion
follows...

Upper level trough moving through during the short term, but
behind the cold front moisture should be somewhat limited. Have
POPs lingering in the mountains Tuesday night. Have a slight
chance of POPs re-developing Thursday afternoon and evening
across the elevated heat source of the mountains. Again moisture
may be to limited to get more than some cumulus popping.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Have some lingering POPs associated with upper trough Friday and
Friday night, however moisture may be too limited and have surface
high pressure in the vicinity. Cold front sinks in for the
weekend. Followed WPC guidance for POPs on this, with highest POPs
across the south as a surface wave rides up the front.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Conditions will continue to transition to LIFR and VLIFR fog
between 06z and 12z.  A weak low level frontal boundary is
expected to cross the area between 12 to 15Z. This should quickly
lift any fog. VFR conditions after any morning fog/low stratus.
Afternoon VFR cu to develop then briefly become bkn then sct out
by evening...as high pressure builds in across the region.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: timing of fog forming and lifting may vary as
high clouds move across the region during the early morning hours.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              TUE 06/28/16
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR possible in Thunderstorms Monday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/JW
NEAR TERM...JS
SHORT TERM...JW/MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...JS




000
FXUS61 KRLX 280720
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
320 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A reinforcing cold front moves through today. Cooler for the
remainder of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Weak cold front to push through the region today. Moisture is
limited with this front. Still there might be some left over low
level moisture to kick a sprinkle or shower this
afternoon...mainly across the northern areas and in the mountain
zones.

Tonight high pressure builds into the region bringing cooler and
drier air into the area.


.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
No changes, forecast looks on track. Previous discussion
follows...

Upper level trough moving through during the short term, but
behind the cold front moisture should be somewhat limited. Have
POPs lingering in the mountains Tuesday night. Have a slight
chance of POPs re-developing Thursday afternoon and evening
across the elevated heat source of the mountains. Again moisture
may be to limited to get more than some cumulus popping.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Have some lingering POPs associated with upper trough Friday and
Friday night, however moisture may be too limited and have surface
high pressure in the vicinity. Cold front sinks in for the
weekend. Followed WPC guidance for POPs on this, with highest POPs
across the south as a surface wave rides up the front.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Conditions will continue to transition to LIFR and VLIFR fog
between 06z and 12z.  A weak low level frontal boundary is
expected to cross the area between 12 to 15Z. This should quickly
lift any fog. VFR conditions after any morning fog/low stratus.
Afternoon VFR cu to develop then briefly become bkn then sct out
by evening...as high pressure builds in across the region.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: timing of fog forming and lifting may vary as
high clouds move across the region during the early morning hours.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              TUE 06/28/16
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR possible in Thunderstorms Monday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/JW
NEAR TERM...JS
SHORT TERM...JW/MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...JS




000
FXUS61 KRLX 280712
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
312 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves through the area kicking off heavy rain
showers into this evening. A reinforcing cold front moves through
Tuesday. Cooler for the remainder of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
730 PM UPDATE...

Cancelled the flash flood watch over the area as all of the
convection has shifted into VA...with just some patches of light
rain over SW VA and SE WV.

Despite the high clouds overhead...thinking most places see some
dense valley fog tonight given the rains today. This may break up
during the predawn over W zones as low level winds pick up with
weak frontal passage.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
Scattered convection firing across central West Virginia and
extending southward into the coalfields. Expanded coverage of
flash flood watch both northeastward and southwestward, based on
current radar trends. Although small, these storms will be
efficient precipitation producers, with heavy downpours.
Precipitable water values at around 2 inches, so most storms
should have heavy precip loading for isolated wet microburst
potential. Otherwise, current thinking is severe threat is
diminished, and main concern will be heightened flash flood
potential. Thus, flash flood watch remains posted until 9 pm.

For temperatures, used mainly model blends averaged back into
inherited values. Result was a minimal change to inherited
forecast.

Flash flood watch remains in effect into this evening. Turn
around don`t drown. Be safe.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
No changes, forecast looks on track. Previous discussion
follows...

Upper level trough moving through during the short term, but
behind the cold front moisture should be somewhat limited. Have
POPs lingering in the mountains Tuesday night. Have a slight
chance of POPs re-developing Thursday afternoon and evening
across the elevated heat source of the mountains. Again moisture
may be to limited to get more than some cumulus popping.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Have some lingering POPs associated with upper trough Friday and
Friday night, however moisture may be too limited and have surface
high pressure in the vicinity. Cold front sinks in for the
weekend. Followed WPC guidance for POPs on this, with highest POPs
across the south as a surface wave rides up the front.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Conditions will continue to transition to LIFR and VLIFR fog
between 06z and 12z.  A weak low level frontal boundary is
expected to cross the area between 12 to 15Z. This should quickly
lift any fog. VFR conditions after any morning fog/low stratus.
Afternoon VFR cu to develop then briefly become bkn then sct out
by evening...as high pressure builds in across the region.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: timing of fog forming and lifting may vary as
high clouds move across the region during the early morning hours.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              TUE 06/28/16
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR possible in Thunderstorms Monday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JW/MZ
NEAR TERM...KMC/30
SHORT TERM...JW/MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...JS




000
FXUS61 KRLX 280712
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
312 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves through the area kicking off heavy rain
showers into this evening. A reinforcing cold front moves through
Tuesday. Cooler for the remainder of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
730 PM UPDATE...

Cancelled the flash flood watch over the area as all of the
convection has shifted into VA...with just some patches of light
rain over SW VA and SE WV.

Despite the high clouds overhead...thinking most places see some
dense valley fog tonight given the rains today. This may break up
during the predawn over W zones as low level winds pick up with
weak frontal passage.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
Scattered convection firing across central West Virginia and
extending southward into the coalfields. Expanded coverage of
flash flood watch both northeastward and southwestward, based on
current radar trends. Although small, these storms will be
efficient precipitation producers, with heavy downpours.
Precipitable water values at around 2 inches, so most storms
should have heavy precip loading for isolated wet microburst
potential. Otherwise, current thinking is severe threat is
diminished, and main concern will be heightened flash flood
potential. Thus, flash flood watch remains posted until 9 pm.

For temperatures, used mainly model blends averaged back into
inherited values. Result was a minimal change to inherited
forecast.

Flash flood watch remains in effect into this evening. Turn
around don`t drown. Be safe.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
No changes, forecast looks on track. Previous discussion
follows...

Upper level trough moving through during the short term, but
behind the cold front moisture should be somewhat limited. Have
POPs lingering in the mountains Tuesday night. Have a slight
chance of POPs re-developing Thursday afternoon and evening
across the elevated heat source of the mountains. Again moisture
may be to limited to get more than some cumulus popping.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Have some lingering POPs associated with upper trough Friday and
Friday night, however moisture may be too limited and have surface
high pressure in the vicinity. Cold front sinks in for the
weekend. Followed WPC guidance for POPs on this, with highest POPs
across the south as a surface wave rides up the front.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Conditions will continue to transition to LIFR and VLIFR fog
between 06z and 12z.  A weak low level frontal boundary is
expected to cross the area between 12 to 15Z. This should quickly
lift any fog. VFR conditions after any morning fog/low stratus.
Afternoon VFR cu to develop then briefly become bkn then sct out
by evening...as high pressure builds in across the region.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: timing of fog forming and lifting may vary as
high clouds move across the region during the early morning hours.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              TUE 06/28/16
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR possible in Thunderstorms Monday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JW/MZ
NEAR TERM...KMC/30
SHORT TERM...JW/MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...JS




000
FXUS61 KRLX 280605
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
205 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves through the area kicking off heavy rain
showers into this evening. A reinforcing cold front moves through
Tuesday. Cooler for the remainder of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...

Cancelled the flash flood watch over the area as all of the
convection has shifted into VA...with just some patches of light
rain over SW VA and SE WV.

Despite the high clouds overhead...thinking most places see some
dense valley fog tonight given the rains today. This may break up
during the predawn over W zones as low level winds pick up with
weak frontal passage.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
Scattered convection firing across central West Virginia and
extending southward into the coalfields. Expanded coverage of
flash flood watch both northeastward and southwestward, based on
current radar trends. Although small, these storms will be
efficient precipitation producers, with heavy downpours.
Precipitable water values at around 2 inches, so most storms
should have heavy precip loading for isolated wet microburst
potential. Otherwise, current thinking is severe threat is
diminished, and main concern will be heightened flash flood
potential. Thus, flash flood watch remains posted until 9 pm.

For temperatures, used mainly model blends averaged back into
inherited values. Result was a minimal change to inherited
forecast.

Flash flood watch remains in effect into this evening. Turn
around don`t drown. Be safe.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level trough moving through during the short term, but
behind the cold front moisture should be somewhat limited. Have
POPs lingering in the mountains Tuesday night. Have a slight
chance of POPs re-developing Thursday afternoon and evening across
the elevated heat source of the mountains. Again moisture may be
to limited to get more than some cumulus popping.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Have some lingering POPs associated with upper trough Friday and
Friday night, however moisture may be too limited and have surface
high pressure in the vicinity. Cold front sinks in for the
weekend. Followed WPC guidance for POPs on this, with highest POPs
across the south as a surface wave rides up the front.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Conditions will continue to transition to LIFR and VLIFR fog
between 06z and 12z.  A weak low level frontal boundary is
expected to cross the area between 12 to 15Z. This should quickly
lift any fog. VFR conditions after any morning fog/low stratus.
Afternoon VFR cu to develop then briefly become bkn then sct out
by evening...as high pressure builds in across the region.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: timing of fog forming and lifting may vary as
high clouds move across the region during the early morning hours.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              TUE 06/28/16
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR possible in Thunderstorms Monday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/MZ
NEAR TERM...KMC/30
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...JS




000
FXUS61 KRLX 280605
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
205 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves through the area kicking off heavy rain
showers into this evening. A reinforcing cold front moves through
Tuesday. Cooler for the remainder of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...

Cancelled the flash flood watch over the area as all of the
convection has shifted into VA...with just some patches of light
rain over SW VA and SE WV.

Despite the high clouds overhead...thinking most places see some
dense valley fog tonight given the rains today. This may break up
during the predawn over W zones as low level winds pick up with
weak frontal passage.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
Scattered convection firing across central West Virginia and
extending southward into the coalfields. Expanded coverage of
flash flood watch both northeastward and southwestward, based on
current radar trends. Although small, these storms will be
efficient precipitation producers, with heavy downpours.
Precipitable water values at around 2 inches, so most storms
should have heavy precip loading for isolated wet microburst
potential. Otherwise, current thinking is severe threat is
diminished, and main concern will be heightened flash flood
potential. Thus, flash flood watch remains posted until 9 pm.

For temperatures, used mainly model blends averaged back into
inherited values. Result was a minimal change to inherited
forecast.

Flash flood watch remains in effect into this evening. Turn
around don`t drown. Be safe.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level trough moving through during the short term, but
behind the cold front moisture should be somewhat limited. Have
POPs lingering in the mountains Tuesday night. Have a slight
chance of POPs re-developing Thursday afternoon and evening across
the elevated heat source of the mountains. Again moisture may be
to limited to get more than some cumulus popping.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Have some lingering POPs associated with upper trough Friday and
Friday night, however moisture may be too limited and have surface
high pressure in the vicinity. Cold front sinks in for the
weekend. Followed WPC guidance for POPs on this, with highest POPs
across the south as a surface wave rides up the front.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Conditions will continue to transition to LIFR and VLIFR fog
between 06z and 12z.  A weak low level frontal boundary is
expected to cross the area between 12 to 15Z. This should quickly
lift any fog. VFR conditions after any morning fog/low stratus.
Afternoon VFR cu to develop then briefly become bkn then sct out
by evening...as high pressure builds in across the region.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: timing of fog forming and lifting may vary as
high clouds move across the region during the early morning hours.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              TUE 06/28/16
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR possible in Thunderstorms Monday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/MZ
NEAR TERM...KMC/30
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...JS




000
FXUS61 KRLX 272333
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
733 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves through the area kicking off heavy rain
showers into this evening. A reinforcing cold front moves through
Tuesday. Cooler for the remainder of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...

Cancelled the flash flood watch over the area as all of the
convection has shifted into VA...with just some patches of light
rain over SW VA and SE WV.

Despite the high clouds overhead...thinking most places see some
dense valley fog tonight given the rains today. This may break up
during the predawn over W zones as low level winds pick up with
weak frontal passage.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
Scattered convection firing across central West Virginia and
extending southward into the coalfields. Expanded coverage of
flash flood watch both northeastward and southwestward, based on
current radar trends. Although small, these storms will be
efficient precipitation producers, with heavy downpours.
Precipitable water values at around 2 inches, so most storms
should have heavy precip loading for isolated wet microburst
potential. Otherwise, current thinking is severe threat is
diminished, and main concern will be heightened flash flood
potential. Thus, flash flood watch remains posted until 9 pm.

For temperatures, used mainly model blends averaged back into
inherited values. Result was a minimal change to inherited
forecast.

Flash flood watch remains in effect into this evening. Turn
around don`t drown. Be safe.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level trough moving through during the short term, but
behind the cold front moisture should be somewhat limited. Have
POPs lingering in the mountains Tuesday night. Have a slight
chance of POPs re-developing Thursday afternoon and evening across
the elevated heat source of the mountains. Again moisture may be
to limited to get more than some cumulus popping.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Have some lingering POPs associated with upper trough Friday and
Friday night, however moisture may be too limited and have surface
high pressure in the vicinity. Cold front sinks in for the
weekend. Followed WPC guidance for POPs on this, with highest POPs
across the south as a surface wave rides up the front.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions will transition to LIFR and VLIFR fog later this
evening. In addition...low stratus is expected across KBKW...maybe
as low as 300 ft. A weak low level frontal boundary is expected to
cross in the 10 to 12Z time frame which may provide enough of a
stir to allow the fog to lift.

VFR conditions after any morning fog/low stratus for Tuesday with
a sct to bkn 5 to 7 thsd foot deck during the afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent and timing of any fog is in question
given the high canopy of clouds overhead.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EDT 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR possible in Thunderstorms Monday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/MZ
NEAR TERM...KMC/30
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...30




000
FXUS61 KRLX 271939
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
339 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves through the area kicking off heavy rain
showers into this evening. A reinforcing cold front moves through
Tuesday. Cooler for the remainder of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Scattered convection firing across central West Virginia and
extending southward into the coalfields. Expanded coverage of
flash flood watch both northeastward and southwestward, based on
current radar trends. Although small, these storms will be
efficient precipitation producers, with heavy downpours.
Precipitable water values at around 2 inches, so most storms
should have heavy precip loading for isolated wet microburst
potential. Otherwise, current thinking is severe threat is
diminished, and main concern will be heightened flash flood
potential. Thus, flash flood watch remains posted until 9 pm.

For temperatures, used mainly model blends averaged back into
inherited values. Result was a minimal change to inherited
forecast.

Flash flood watch remains in effect into this evening. Turn
around don`t drown. Be safe.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level trough moving through during the short term, but
behind the cold front moisture should be somewhat limited. Have
POPs lingering in the mountains Tuesday night. Have a slight
chance of POPs re-developing Thursday afternoon and evening across
the elevated heat source of the mountains. Again moisture may be
to limited to get more than some cumulus popping.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Have some lingering POPs associated with upper trough Friday and
Friday night, however moisture may be too limited and have surface
high pressure in the vicinity. Cold front sinks in for the
weekend. Followed WPC guidance for POPs on this, with highest POPs
across the south as a surface wave rides up the front.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR transitioning to MVFR/IFR as afternoon convection develops.
Diurnal convection will give way the evening for improvement to
VFR. However, moist low levels will provide main ingredient for a
round of morning fog, especially since surface gradients are
light.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Flight cats may need to be lower in tsra
this aftn and in fg in the morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR possible in Thunderstorms Monday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flash Flood Watch until 9 PM EDT this evening for WVZ005>008-
     013>018-024>030-033>039-046-047.
OH...Flash Flood Watch until 9 PM EDT this evening for OHZ086-087.
KY...Flash Flood Watch until 9 PM EDT this evening for KYZ101>103-
     105.
VA...Flash Flood Watch until 9 PM EDT this evening for VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/MZ
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...KMC




000
FXUS61 KRLX 271939
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
339 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves through the area kicking off heavy rain
showers into this evening. A reinforcing cold front moves through
Tuesday. Cooler for the remainder of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Scattered convection firing across central West Virginia and
extending southward into the coalfields. Expanded coverage of
flash flood watch both northeastward and southwestward, based on
current radar trends. Although small, these storms will be
efficient precipitation producers, with heavy downpours.
Precipitable water values at around 2 inches, so most storms
should have heavy precip loading for isolated wet microburst
potential. Otherwise, current thinking is severe threat is
diminished, and main concern will be heightened flash flood
potential. Thus, flash flood watch remains posted until 9 pm.

For temperatures, used mainly model blends averaged back into
inherited values. Result was a minimal change to inherited
forecast.

Flash flood watch remains in effect into this evening. Turn
around don`t drown. Be safe.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level trough moving through during the short term, but
behind the cold front moisture should be somewhat limited. Have
POPs lingering in the mountains Tuesday night. Have a slight
chance of POPs re-developing Thursday afternoon and evening across
the elevated heat source of the mountains. Again moisture may be
to limited to get more than some cumulus popping.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Have some lingering POPs associated with upper trough Friday and
Friday night, however moisture may be too limited and have surface
high pressure in the vicinity. Cold front sinks in for the
weekend. Followed WPC guidance for POPs on this, with highest POPs
across the south as a surface wave rides up the front.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR transitioning to MVFR/IFR as afternoon convection develops.
Diurnal convection will give way the evening for improvement to
VFR. However, moist low levels will provide main ingredient for a
round of morning fog, especially since surface gradients are
light.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Flight cats may need to be lower in tsra
this aftn and in fg in the morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR possible in Thunderstorms Monday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flash Flood Watch until 9 PM EDT this evening for WVZ005>008-
     013>018-024>030-033>039-046-047.
OH...Flash Flood Watch until 9 PM EDT this evening for OHZ086-087.
KY...Flash Flood Watch until 9 PM EDT this evening for KYZ101>103-
     105.
VA...Flash Flood Watch until 9 PM EDT this evening for VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/MZ
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...KMC




000
FXUS61 KRLX 271806
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
206 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves through the area kicking off heavy rain
showers into this evening. A reinforcing cold front moves through
Tuesday. Cooler and drier remainder of week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Scattered convection firing across central West Virginia and
extending southward into the coalfields. Expanded coverage of
flash flood watch both northeastward and southwestward, based on
current radar trends. Although small, these storms will be
efficient precipitation producers, with heavy downpours.
Precipitable water values at around 2 inches, so most storms
should have heavy precip loading for isolated wet microburst
potential. Otherwise, current thinking is severe threat is
diminished, and main concern will be heightened flash flood
potential. Thus, flash flood watch remains posted until 9 pm.

For temperatures, used mainly model blends averaged back into
inherited values. Result was a minimal change to inherited
forecast.

Flash flood watch remains in effect into this evening. Turn
around don`t drown. Be safe.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Models in agreement with upper level disturbance over the great
lakes moving southeast. Trailing cold front will move through the
region. Moisture is lacking with this front. Not expecting much
other than clouds and a few showers...mainly over the mountain
zones by late afternoon and evening...before exiting tuesday
night. Canadian high pressure builds in late tuesday night and
Wednesday with cooler and drier air. Plenty of sunshine is
expected on Wednesday with noticeable cooler temperatures.
Pleasant temperatures expected Wednesday night under mostly clear
skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A west to northwest flow pattern aloft with broad high pressure at
surface...will dominate this period. The Canadian high pressure
center itself does shift east of the area by Thursday...but still
dominates with mostly dry weather...and also with a warming trend.
Temperatures will rebound to around normal values this period...but
nights will still be on the cool side. Models do show some low level
moisture coming back on southeast flow around the high. This will
mainly affect east facing slopes of the mountains with increased
clouds...and only a slight chance of a shower.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR transitioning to MVFR/IFR as afternoon convection develops.
Diurnal convection will give way the evening for improvement to
VFR. However, moist low levels will provide main ingredient for a
round of morning fog, especially since surface gradients are
light.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Flight cats may need to be lower in tsra
this aftn and in fg in the morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR possible in Thunderstorms Monday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flash Flood Watch until 9 PM EDT this evening for WVZ005>008-
     013>018-024>030-033>039-046-047.
OH...Flash Flood Watch until 9 PM EDT this evening for OHZ086-087.
KY...Flash Flood Watch until 9 PM EDT this evening for KYZ101>103-
     105.
VA...Flash Flood Watch until 9 PM EDT this evening for VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/JMV/JW
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...KMC




000
FXUS61 KRLX 271806
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
206 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves through the area kicking off heavy rain
showers into this evening. A reinforcing cold front moves through
Tuesday. Cooler and drier remainder of week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Scattered convection firing across central West Virginia and
extending southward into the coalfields. Expanded coverage of
flash flood watch both northeastward and southwestward, based on
current radar trends. Although small, these storms will be
efficient precipitation producers, with heavy downpours.
Precipitable water values at around 2 inches, so most storms
should have heavy precip loading for isolated wet microburst
potential. Otherwise, current thinking is severe threat is
diminished, and main concern will be heightened flash flood
potential. Thus, flash flood watch remains posted until 9 pm.

For temperatures, used mainly model blends averaged back into
inherited values. Result was a minimal change to inherited
forecast.

Flash flood watch remains in effect into this evening. Turn
around don`t drown. Be safe.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Models in agreement with upper level disturbance over the great
lakes moving southeast. Trailing cold front will move through the
region. Moisture is lacking with this front. Not expecting much
other than clouds and a few showers...mainly over the mountain
zones by late afternoon and evening...before exiting tuesday
night. Canadian high pressure builds in late tuesday night and
Wednesday with cooler and drier air. Plenty of sunshine is
expected on Wednesday with noticeable cooler temperatures.
Pleasant temperatures expected Wednesday night under mostly clear
skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A west to northwest flow pattern aloft with broad high pressure at
surface...will dominate this period. The Canadian high pressure
center itself does shift east of the area by Thursday...but still
dominates with mostly dry weather...and also with a warming trend.
Temperatures will rebound to around normal values this period...but
nights will still be on the cool side. Models do show some low level
moisture coming back on southeast flow around the high. This will
mainly affect east facing slopes of the mountains with increased
clouds...and only a slight chance of a shower.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR transitioning to MVFR/IFR as afternoon convection develops.
Diurnal convection will give way the evening for improvement to
VFR. However, moist low levels will provide main ingredient for a
round of morning fog, especially since surface gradients are
light.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Flight cats may need to be lower in tsra
this aftn and in fg in the morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR possible in Thunderstorms Monday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flash Flood Watch until 9 PM EDT this evening for WVZ005>008-
     013>018-024>030-033>039-046-047.
OH...Flash Flood Watch until 9 PM EDT this evening for OHZ086-087.
KY...Flash Flood Watch until 9 PM EDT this evening for KYZ101>103-
     105.
VA...Flash Flood Watch until 9 PM EDT this evening for VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/JMV/JW
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...KMC




000
FXUS61 KRLX 271440
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1040 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves through the area today kicking off heavy rain
showers. A reinforcing cold front moves through Tuesday. Cooler
and drier remainder of week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Noted some convective initiation across southeast ohio at this
time with elevated convection exiting our eastern zones. With cap
erosion taking place, we will see general upswing in single cell
convection with additional development driven primarily by outflow
boundaries, with a more linear line developing this afternoon.

Storms will produce heavy downpours in this moisture rich
environment and light mid to upper level flow. In addition, soils
remain at or near saturation from previous rainfall. So, flash
flood watch warranted.

Made minor adjustments to pop values for today, based on latest
short term models, timing the line into the kcrw area 17Z-20Z. No
changes to forecasted max min temps thru Tuesday.

Flash flood watch remains in effect today. Turn around don`t
drown. Be safe.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Models in agreement with upper level disturbance over the great
lakes moving southeast. Trailing cold front will move through the
region. Moisture is lacking with this front. Not expecting much
other than clouds and a few showers...mainly over the mountain
zones by late afternoon and evening...before exiting tuesday
night. Canadian high pressure builds in late tuesday night and
Wednesday with cooler and drier air. Plenty of sunshine is
expected on Wednesday with noticeable cooler temperatures.
Pleasant temperatures expected Wednesday night under mostly clear
skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A west to northwest flow pattern aloft with broad high pressure at
surface...will dominate this period. The Canadian high pressure
center itself does shift east of the area by Thursday...but still
dominates with mostly dry weather...and also with a warming trend.
Temperatures will rebound to around normal values this period...but
nights will still be on the cool side. Models do show some low level
moisture coming back on southeast flow around the high. This will
mainly affect east facing slopes of the mountains with increased
clouds...and only a slight chance of a shower.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR until MVFR/IFR shra/tsra forms midday thru the aftn so have
maintained VCTS wording across most terminals in the afternoon,
but only hinted at sub-VFR in TAFs.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Flight cats may need to be lower in tsra
this aftn.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    M    H    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR possible in Thunderstorms Monday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flash Flood Watch until 9 PM EDT this evening for WVZ005>008-
     013>018-024>029-034>038-046.
OH...Flash Flood Watch until 9 PM EDT this evening for OHZ086-087.
KY...Flash Flood Watch until 9 PM EDT this evening for KYZ101>103-
     105.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/JMV/JW
NEAR TERM...KMC/JW
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...JW/30




000
FXUS61 KRLX 271053
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
653 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A juicy cold front moves through the area today kicking off heavy
rain showers. A reinforcing cold front moves through Tuesday.
Cooler and drier remainder of week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Big concern for the day is the amount of water that will be
squeezed out of an approaching cold front especially over the
areas that were hard hit last week.

Today a cold front will slowly make its way through our forecast
area. Showers should start to enter/develop over our Ohio counties
around 11 am and slowly make their way southeast exiting into
Virginia by 8-10 pm. Given instability, showers will likely form
out ahead of the front as well giving multiple waves of rain. All
said and done, the forecast has an inch of rain over most of our
WV counties by tonight, however, easily could see some localized
3+ inch totals in a few short hours. This is because storm motion
is quite slow with unidirectional winds that max out at 15-20 kt
between the surface and 40 kft. Couple that with lots of CAPE and
a deep warm cloud layer that extends up to 12-13 kft in an
environment that has PW`s in excess of 2 inches. Storms may go up
fast, but due to lack of wind, they likely will smother themselves
which could be a good thing to distribute QPF across a broader
region - though this may just initiate new cells that may
backbuild upstream. All in all, it`s a fairly complex forecast for
a region that is vulnerable.

Flash flood watch remains in effect today. Turn around don`t
drown. Be safe.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Models in agreement with upper level disturbance over the great
lakes moving southeast. Trailing cold front will move through the
region. Moisture is lacking with this front. Not expecting much
other than clouds and a few showers...mainly over the mountain
zones by late afternoon and evening...before exiting tuesday
night. Canadian high pressure builds in late tuesday night and
Wednesday with cooler and drier air. Plenty of sunshine is
expected on Wednesday with noticeable cooler temperatures.
Pleasant temperatures expected Wednesday night under mostly clear
skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A west to northwest flow pattern aloft with broad high pressure at
surface...will dominate this period. The Canadian high pressure
center itself does shift east of the area by Thursday...but still
dominates with mostly dry weather...and also with a warming trend.
Temperatures will rebound to around normal values this period...but
nights will still be on the cool side. Models do show some low level
moisture coming back on southeast flow around the high. This will
mainly affect east facing slopes of the mountains with increased
clouds...and only a slight chance of a shower.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR until MVFR/IFR shra/tsra forms midday thru the aftn so have
maintained VCTS wording across most terminals in the afternoon,
but only hinted at sub-VFR in TAFs.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Flight cats may need to be lower in tsra
this aftn.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR possible in Thunderstorms Monday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for WVZ005>008-013>018-
     024>029-034>038-046.
OH...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for OHZ086-087.
KY...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/JMV/JW
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...JW/30




000
FXUS61 KRLX 270720
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
320 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A juicy cold front moves through the area today kicking off heavy
rain showers. A reinforcing cold front moves through Tuesday.
Cooler and drier remainder of week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Big concern for the day is the amount of water that will be
squeezed out of an approaching cold front especially over the
areas that were hard hit last week.

Today a cold front will slowly make its way through our forecast
area. Showers should start to enter/develop over our Ohio counties
around 11 am and slowly make their way southeast exiting into
Virginia by 8-10 pm. Given instability, showers will likely form
out ahead of the front as well giving multiple waves of rain. All
said and done, the forecast has an inch of rain over most of our
WV counties by tonight, however, easily could see some localized
3+ inch totals in a few short hours. This is because storm motion
is quite slow with unidirectional winds that max out at 15-20 kt
between the surface and 40 kft. Couple that with lots of CAPE and
a deep warm cloud layer that extends up to 12-13 kft in an
environment that has PW`s in excess of 2 inches. Storms may go up
fast, but due to lack of wind, they likely will smother themselves
which could be a good thing to distribute QPF across a broader
region - though this may just initiate new cells that may
backbuild upstream. All in all, it`s a fairly complex forecast for
a region that is vulnerable.

Flash flood watch remains in effect today. Turn around don`t
drown. Be safe.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Models in agreement with upper level disturbance over the great
lakes moving southeast. Trailing cold front will move through the
region. Moisture is lacking with this front. Not expecting much
other than clouds and a few showers...mainly over the mountain
zones by late afternoon and evening...before exiting tuesday
night. Canadian high pressure builds in late tuesday night and
Wednesday with cooler and drier air. Plenty of sunshine is
expected on Wednesday with noticeable cooler temperatures.
Pleasant temperatures expected Wednesday night under mostly clear
skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A west to northwest flow pattern aloft with broad high pressure at
surface...will dominate this period. The Canadian high pressure
center itself does shift east of the area by Thursday...but still
dominates with mostly dry weather...and also with a warming trend.
Temperatures will rebound to around normal values this period...but
nights will still be on the cool side. Models do show some low level
moisture coming back on southeast flow around the high. This will
mainly affect east facing slopes of the mountains with increased
clouds...and only a slight chance of a shower.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR with patchy MVFR river valley fog.

MVFR/IFR shra/tsra midday thru the aftn so have maintained VCTS
wording across most terminals in the afternoon, but only hinted at
sub-VFR in TAFs.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent and magnitude of river valley fog may
be more than currently forecasted. Flight cats may need to be
lower in tsra this aftn.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              MON 06/27/16
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR possible in Thunderstorms Monday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flash Flood Watch from 9 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for WVZ005>008-013>018-024>029-034>038-046.
OH...Flash Flood Watch from 9 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for OHZ086-087.
KY...Flash Flood Watch from 9 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/JMV/JW
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...JW/30




000
FXUS61 KRLX 270701
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
301 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front moves through the area today. A reinforcing cold front
moves through Tuesday. Cooler and drier remainder of week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
700 PM UPDATE...

A quiet but humid and warm evening across the area. Thinking some
patchy river valley fog will be around overnight...possibly dense
over the mountain valleys. Convective line ahead of cold front
over the W OH Valley should weaken on approach with just some
debris clouds late late tonight.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

Moisture starts advecting into the region tonight as warm front
pushes in. Could see some showers popping up overnight after
midnight and should increase in coverage from west to east by
daybreak. Focus then turns to tomorrow late morning through
tomorrow evening. Upper trough and associated cold front sinks southward
from the Great Lakes Region. Out ahead of this front Theta e
ridge builds in across the southern half of West Virginia and
should be the focus for the heaviest rainfall.  Not sure how much
solar insolation we will see ahead of the front...but if there
are some breaks in the cloud cover this will increase instability
for the afternoon. Even so...with dew points upwards of 72F
across the area it is likely we will still have modest instability
in place even with out daytime heating in upwards of 1000 J/Kg of
CAPE.

GFS Ensembles indicate PWATs over 2 inches...which is 2-3
std devs above normal. Also...deep moist profiles with high warm
cloud depths near 12K ft...short corfidi vectors to support back
building storms and the approaching cold front to kick off the
scattered storms is enough alone to warrant a Flash Flood Watch.
But...when you add the fact that Flash Flood Guidance values are
generally around 1 to 1.5 inches in one hour and about 2 inches in
3 hours across the region...with lowest values of course in the
hardest hit areas from the event on Thursday...then the issuance
of the Flash Flood Watch was absolutely necessary.

Any slow moving storms tomorrow could quickly cause
issues...especially in areas decimated from flooding on Thursday.
Although flash flooding is the main threat...there is enough
shear and instability that some thunderstorms could also be strong
to severe...with gusty winds being the primary threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Models in agreement with upper level disturbance over the great
lakes moving southeast. Trailing cold front will move through the
region. Moisture is lacking with this front. Not expecting much
other than clouds and a few showers...mainly over the mountain
zones by late afternoon and evening...before exiting tuesday
night. Canadian high pressure builds in late tuesday night and
Wednesday with cooler and drier air. Plenty of sunshine is
expected on Wednesday with noticable cooler temperatures. Pleasant
temperatures expected Wednesday night under mostly clear skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A west to northwest flow pattern aloft with broad high pressure at
surface...will dominate this period. The Canadian high pressure
center itself does shift east of the area by Thursday...but still
dominates with mostly dry weather...and also with a warming trend.
Temperatures will rebound to around normal values this period...but
nights will still be on the cool side. Models do show some low level
moisture coming back on southeast flow around the high. This will
mainly affect east facing slopes of the mountains with increased
clouds...and only a slight chance of a shower.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR with patchy MVFR river valley fog.

shra/tsra midday thru the aftn so have maintained VCTS wording
across most terminals in the afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent and magnitude of river valley fog may
be more than currently forecasted. Flight cats may need to be
lower in tsra this aftn.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              MON 06/27/16
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR possible in Thunderstorms Monday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flash Flood Watch from 9 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for WVZ005>008-013>018-024>029-034>038-046.
OH...Flash Flood Watch from 9 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for OHZ086-087.
KY...Flash Flood Watch from 9 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/JMV/MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...JW/30




000
FXUS61 KRLX 270701
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
301 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front moves through the area today. A reinforcing cold front
moves through Tuesday. Cooler and drier remainder of week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
700 PM UPDATE...

A quiet but humid and warm evening across the area. Thinking some
patchy river valley fog will be around overnight...possibly dense
over the mountain valleys. Convective line ahead of cold front
over the W OH Valley should weaken on approach with just some
debris clouds late late tonight.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

Moisture starts advecting into the region tonight as warm front
pushes in. Could see some showers popping up overnight after
midnight and should increase in coverage from west to east by
daybreak. Focus then turns to tomorrow late morning through
tomorrow evening. Upper trough and associated cold front sinks southward
from the Great Lakes Region. Out ahead of this front Theta e
ridge builds in across the southern half of West Virginia and
should be the focus for the heaviest rainfall.  Not sure how much
solar insolation we will see ahead of the front...but if there
are some breaks in the cloud cover this will increase instability
for the afternoon. Even so...with dew points upwards of 72F
across the area it is likely we will still have modest instability
in place even with out daytime heating in upwards of 1000 J/Kg of
CAPE.

GFS Ensembles indicate PWATs over 2 inches...which is 2-3
std devs above normal. Also...deep moist profiles with high warm
cloud depths near 12K ft...short corfidi vectors to support back
building storms and the approaching cold front to kick off the
scattered storms is enough alone to warrant a Flash Flood Watch.
But...when you add the fact that Flash Flood Guidance values are
generally around 1 to 1.5 inches in one hour and about 2 inches in
3 hours across the region...with lowest values of course in the
hardest hit areas from the event on Thursday...then the issuance
of the Flash Flood Watch was absolutely necessary.

Any slow moving storms tomorrow could quickly cause
issues...especially in areas decimated from flooding on Thursday.
Although flash flooding is the main threat...there is enough
shear and instability that some thunderstorms could also be strong
to severe...with gusty winds being the primary threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Models in agreement with upper level disturbance over the great
lakes moving southeast. Trailing cold front will move through the
region. Moisture is lacking with this front. Not expecting much
other than clouds and a few showers...mainly over the mountain
zones by late afternoon and evening...before exiting tuesday
night. Canadian high pressure builds in late tuesday night and
Wednesday with cooler and drier air. Plenty of sunshine is
expected on Wednesday with noticable cooler temperatures. Pleasant
temperatures expected Wednesday night under mostly clear skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A west to northwest flow pattern aloft with broad high pressure at
surface...will dominate this period. The Canadian high pressure
center itself does shift east of the area by Thursday...but still
dominates with mostly dry weather...and also with a warming trend.
Temperatures will rebound to around normal values this period...but
nights will still be on the cool side. Models do show some low level
moisture coming back on southeast flow around the high. This will
mainly affect east facing slopes of the mountains with increased
clouds...and only a slight chance of a shower.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR with patchy MVFR river valley fog.

shra/tsra midday thru the aftn so have maintained VCTS wording
across most terminals in the afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent and magnitude of river valley fog may
be more than currently forecasted. Flight cats may need to be
lower in tsra this aftn.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              MON 06/27/16
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR possible in Thunderstorms Monday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flash Flood Watch from 9 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for WVZ005>008-013>018-024>029-034>038-046.
OH...Flash Flood Watch from 9 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for OHZ086-087.
KY...Flash Flood Watch from 9 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/JMV/MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...JW/30




000
FXUS61 KRLX 270540
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
140 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and dry under high pressure today. Cold front Monday.
Reinforcing cold front Tuesday. Cooler and drier remainder of week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
700 PM UPDATE...

A quiet but humid and warm evening across the area. Thinking some
patchy river valley fog will be around overnight...possibly dense
over the mountain valleys. Convective line ahead of cold front
over the W OH Valley should weaken on approach with just some
debris clouds late late tonight.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

Moisture starts advecting into the region tonight as warm front
pushes in. Could see some showers popping up overnight after
midnight and should increase in coverage from west to east by
daybreak. Focus then turns to tomorrow late morning through
tomorrow evening. Upper trough and associated cold front sinks southward
from the Great Lakes Region. Out ahead of this front Theta e
ridge builds in across the southern half of West Virginia and
should be the focus for the heaviest rainfall.  Not sure how much
solar insolation we will see ahead of the front...but if there
are some breaks in the cloud cover this will increase instability
for the afternoon. Even so...with dew points upwards of 72F
across the area it is likely we will still have modest instability
in place even with out daytime heating in upwards of 1000 J/Kg of
CAPE.

GFS Ensembles indicate PWATs over 2 inches...which is 2-3
std devs above normal. Also...deep moist profiles with high warm
cloud depths near 12K ft...short corfidi vectors to support back
building storms and the approaching cold front to kick off the
scattered storms is enough alone to warrant a Flash Flood Watch.
But...when you add the fact that Flash Flood Guidance values are
generally around 1 to 1.5 inches in one hour and about 2 inches in
3 hours across the region...with lowest values of course in the
hardest hit areas from the event on Thursday...then the issuance
of the Flash Flood Watch was absolutely necessary.

Any slow moving storms tomorrow could quickly cause
issues...especially in areas decimated from flooding on Thursday.
Although flash flooding is the main threat...there is enough
shear and instability that some thunderstorms could also be strong
to severe...with gusty winds being the primary threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Models continue to bring a short wave across the area Monday...with
the deeper moisture exiting to the east with the short wave Monday
evening. The attending cold front with this short wave tends to wash
out during the afternoon as it approaches the mountains...allowing
lots of low level moisture to remain. However...the weakening upper
dynamics...drying aloft and weakening low level convergence are
expected to bring an end to the precipitation Monday evening. Will
only carry low pops for a while in the mountains Monday evening.
Temperatures Monday night will be warm and still rather muggy.

For Tuesday...another short wave dropping southeast in amplifying
northern stream flow aloft...will carry a stronger cold front across
the area Tuesday. However...lack of moisture with this front
precludes more than widely scattered showers. Canadian high pressure
finally settles in Tuesday night and Wednesday with much drier and
cooler air...especially at night. Look for high temperatures below
normal for Wednesday...despite sunshine.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A west to northwest flow pattern aloft with broad high pressure at
surface...will dominate this period. The Canadian high pressure
center itself does shift east of the area by Thursday...but still
dominates with mostly dry weather...and also with a warming trend.
Temperatures will rebound to around normal values this period...but
nights will still be on the cool side. Models do show some low level
moisture coming back on southeast flow around the high. This will
mainly affect east facing slopes of the mountains with increased
clouds...and only a slight chance of a shower.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR with patchy MVFR river valley fog.

shra/tsra midday thru the aftn so have maintained VCTS wording
across most terminals in the afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent and magnitude of river valley fog may
be more than currently forecasted. Flight cats may need to be
lower in tsra this aftn.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              MON 06/27/16
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR possible in Thunderstorms Monday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flash Flood Watch from 9 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for WVZ005>008-013>018-024>029-034>038-046.
OH...Flash Flood Watch from 9 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for OHZ086-087.
KY...Flash Flood Watch from 9 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...JW/30




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