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000
FXUS61 KRLX 280225
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1025 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT. A FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH LATE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1030PM UPDATE...
LARGELY ECHO FREE ACROSS THE CWA...BUT WILL NOT COMPLETELY BAIL
OUT ON THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL MIGRATE SOUTHEASTWARD WITH A LINGERING POSSIBLE FOCUS FOR AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW A VORTICITY MAX AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REACHING THE OH RIVER AROUND 00-06Z. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH 12Z...AS
ONLY THE GFS IS BRINGING SOME QPF ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE BRINGS
QPF LATER ON THURSDAY AND THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA DRY. FOR
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED THE GFS QPF KEEPING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS EXPECTING LOWS CLOSE TO DEWPOINTS AND HIGHS ON
THURSDAY INTO THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL FIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU. WITH
UPPER SUPPORT OVER THE REGION THOUGH...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS TIME FRAME FOR THE BETTER COVERAGE IN CONVECTION. THERE MAY
BE A REPRIEVE POSSIBLY FRI AS THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY FLEXES ITS
MUSCLE BACK INTO THE REGION. WARM AND MUGGY THE BEST DESCRIPTOR
FOR TEMPS/DEWPTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING
TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER
AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY LATE SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF HTS IS CURRENTLY FALLING APART AT THIS
HOUR...AND HAVE REMOVED THE TSRA FROM THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS
FOR THAT PARTICULAR LOCATION.

WILL SEE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AFTER 03Z TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD
BE ABOVE 3KFT. A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM AT ANY TIME CANNOT BE
COUNTED OUT THANKS TO A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING IN FROM CENTRAL
OHIO...WITH BETTER CHANCES TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER OVERNIGHT. WILL
NOT CARRY PREVAILING TSRA HOWEVER AND HAVE OPTIMISTIC TAFS GOING
FORWARD.

LATE RIVER VALLEY FOG TONIGHT IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHLAND VALLEYS AND TOWARDS HTS WHERE RAIN MAY FALL OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. ONLY IFR IN THE TAFS IS FOR EKN.

CONVECTION A POSSIBILITY AGAIN ON THURSDAY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
OHIO RIVER.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VALLEY FOG MAY VARY FROM FORECAST TONIGHT.
ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY HIT TERMINALS.

.AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ/26
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...26



000
FXUS61 KRLX 280225
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1025 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT. A FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH LATE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1030PM UPDATE...
LARGELY ECHO FREE ACROSS THE CWA...BUT WILL NOT COMPLETELY BAIL
OUT ON THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL MIGRATE SOUTHEASTWARD WITH A LINGERING POSSIBLE FOCUS FOR AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW A VORTICITY MAX AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REACHING THE OH RIVER AROUND 00-06Z. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH 12Z...AS
ONLY THE GFS IS BRINGING SOME QPF ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE BRINGS
QPF LATER ON THURSDAY AND THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA DRY. FOR
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED THE GFS QPF KEEPING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS EXPECTING LOWS CLOSE TO DEWPOINTS AND HIGHS ON
THURSDAY INTO THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL FIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU. WITH
UPPER SUPPORT OVER THE REGION THOUGH...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS TIME FRAME FOR THE BETTER COVERAGE IN CONVECTION. THERE MAY
BE A REPRIEVE POSSIBLY FRI AS THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY FLEXES ITS
MUSCLE BACK INTO THE REGION. WARM AND MUGGY THE BEST DESCRIPTOR
FOR TEMPS/DEWPTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING
TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER
AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY LATE SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF HTS IS CURRENTLY FALLING APART AT THIS
HOUR...AND HAVE REMOVED THE TSRA FROM THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS
FOR THAT PARTICULAR LOCATION.

WILL SEE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AFTER 03Z TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD
BE ABOVE 3KFT. A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM AT ANY TIME CANNOT BE
COUNTED OUT THANKS TO A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING IN FROM CENTRAL
OHIO...WITH BETTER CHANCES TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER OVERNIGHT. WILL
NOT CARRY PREVAILING TSRA HOWEVER AND HAVE OPTIMISTIC TAFS GOING
FORWARD.

LATE RIVER VALLEY FOG TONIGHT IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHLAND VALLEYS AND TOWARDS HTS WHERE RAIN MAY FALL OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. ONLY IFR IN THE TAFS IS FOR EKN.

CONVECTION A POSSIBILITY AGAIN ON THURSDAY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
OHIO RIVER.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VALLEY FOG MAY VARY FROM FORECAST TONIGHT.
ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY HIT TERMINALS.

.AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ/26
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS61 KRLX 272345
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
745 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT. A FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH LATE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
730PM UPDATE...
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD TOP WARMING OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY TAKING PLACE
WITH LINE OF CONVECTION DECAYING TO SHOWERS AS IT MOVES TOWARDS
THE TRI STATE AREA. USED THE TRENDS FROM THE HRRR IN ITS
PROGRESSION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW A VORTICITY MAX AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REACHING THE OH RIVER AROUND 00-06Z. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH 12Z...AS
ONLY THE GFS IS BRINGING SOME QPF ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE BRINGS
QPF LATER ON THURSDAY AND THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA DRY. FOR
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED THE GFS QPF KEEPING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS EXPECTING LOWS CLOSE TO DEWPOINTS AND HIGHS ON
THURSDAY INTO THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL FIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU. WITH
UPPER SUPPORT OVER THE REGION THOUGH...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS TIME FRAME FOR THE BETTER COVERAGE IN CONVECTION. THERE MAY
BE A REPRIEVE POSSIBLY FRI AS THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY FLEXES ITS
MUSCLE BACK INTO THE REGION. WARM AND MUGGY THE BEST DESCRIPTOR
FOR TEMPS/DEWPTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING
TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER
AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY LATE SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF HTS IS CURRENTLY FALLING APART AT THIS
HOUR...AND HAVE REMOVED THE TSRA FROM THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS
FOR THAT PARTICULAR LOCATION.

WILL SEE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AFTER 03Z TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD
BE ABOVE 3KFT. A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM AT ANY TIME CANNOT BE
COUNTED OUT THANKS TO A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING IN FROM CENTRAL
OHIO...WITH BETTER CHANCES TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER OVERNIGHT. WILL
NOT CARRY PREVAILING TSRA HOWEVER AND HAVE OPTIMISTIC TAFS GOING
FORWARD.

LATE RIVER VALLEY FOG TONIGHT IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHLAND VALLEYS AND TOWARDS HTS WHERE RAIN MAY FALL OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. ONLY IFR IN THE TAFS IS FOR EKN.

CONVECTION A POSSIBILITY AGAIN ON THURSDAY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
OHIO RIVER.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VALLEY FOG MAY VARY FROM FORECAST TONIGHT.
ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY HIT TERMINALS.

.AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ/26
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS61 KRLX 272345
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
745 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT. A FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH LATE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
730PM UPDATE...
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD TOP WARMING OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY TAKING PLACE
WITH LINE OF CONVECTION DECAYING TO SHOWERS AS IT MOVES TOWARDS
THE TRI STATE AREA. USED THE TRENDS FROM THE HRRR IN ITS
PROGRESSION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW A VORTICITY MAX AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REACHING THE OH RIVER AROUND 00-06Z. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH 12Z...AS
ONLY THE GFS IS BRINGING SOME QPF ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE BRINGS
QPF LATER ON THURSDAY AND THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA DRY. FOR
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED THE GFS QPF KEEPING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS EXPECTING LOWS CLOSE TO DEWPOINTS AND HIGHS ON
THURSDAY INTO THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL FIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU. WITH
UPPER SUPPORT OVER THE REGION THOUGH...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS TIME FRAME FOR THE BETTER COVERAGE IN CONVECTION. THERE MAY
BE A REPRIEVE POSSIBLY FRI AS THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY FLEXES ITS
MUSCLE BACK INTO THE REGION. WARM AND MUGGY THE BEST DESCRIPTOR
FOR TEMPS/DEWPTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING
TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER
AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY LATE SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF HTS IS CURRENTLY FALLING APART AT THIS
HOUR...AND HAVE REMOVED THE TSRA FROM THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS
FOR THAT PARTICULAR LOCATION.

WILL SEE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AFTER 03Z TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD
BE ABOVE 3KFT. A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM AT ANY TIME CANNOT BE
COUNTED OUT THANKS TO A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING IN FROM CENTRAL
OHIO...WITH BETTER CHANCES TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER OVERNIGHT. WILL
NOT CARRY PREVAILING TSRA HOWEVER AND HAVE OPTIMISTIC TAFS GOING
FORWARD.

LATE RIVER VALLEY FOG TONIGHT IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHLAND VALLEYS AND TOWARDS HTS WHERE RAIN MAY FALL OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. ONLY IFR IN THE TAFS IS FOR EKN.

CONVECTION A POSSIBILITY AGAIN ON THURSDAY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
OHIO RIVER.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VALLEY FOG MAY VARY FROM FORECAST TONIGHT.
ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY HIT TERMINALS.

.AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ/26
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...26



000
FXUS61 KRLX 272345
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
745 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT. A FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH LATE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
730PM UPDATE...
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD TOP WARMING OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY TAKING PLACE
WITH LINE OF CONVECTION DECAYING TO SHOWERS AS IT MOVES TOWARDS
THE TRI STATE AREA. USED THE TRENDS FROM THE HRRR IN ITS
PROGRESSION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW A VORTICITY MAX AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REACHING THE OH RIVER AROUND 00-06Z. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH 12Z...AS
ONLY THE GFS IS BRINGING SOME QPF ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE BRINGS
QPF LATER ON THURSDAY AND THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA DRY. FOR
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED THE GFS QPF KEEPING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS EXPECTING LOWS CLOSE TO DEWPOINTS AND HIGHS ON
THURSDAY INTO THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL FIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU. WITH
UPPER SUPPORT OVER THE REGION THOUGH...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS TIME FRAME FOR THE BETTER COVERAGE IN CONVECTION. THERE MAY
BE A REPRIEVE POSSIBLY FRI AS THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY FLEXES ITS
MUSCLE BACK INTO THE REGION. WARM AND MUGGY THE BEST DESCRIPTOR
FOR TEMPS/DEWPTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING
TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER
AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY LATE SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF HTS IS CURRENTLY FALLING APART AT THIS
HOUR...AND HAVE REMOVED THE TSRA FROM THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS
FOR THAT PARTICULAR LOCATION.

WILL SEE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AFTER 03Z TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD
BE ABOVE 3KFT. A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM AT ANY TIME CANNOT BE
COUNTED OUT THANKS TO A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING IN FROM CENTRAL
OHIO...WITH BETTER CHANCES TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER OVERNIGHT. WILL
NOT CARRY PREVAILING TSRA HOWEVER AND HAVE OPTIMISTIC TAFS GOING
FORWARD.

LATE RIVER VALLEY FOG TONIGHT IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHLAND VALLEYS AND TOWARDS HTS WHERE RAIN MAY FALL OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. ONLY IFR IN THE TAFS IS FOR EKN.

CONVECTION A POSSIBILITY AGAIN ON THURSDAY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
OHIO RIVER.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VALLEY FOG MAY VARY FROM FORECAST TONIGHT.
ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY HIT TERMINALS.

.AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ/26
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...26



000
FXUS61 KRLX 272345
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
745 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT. A FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH LATE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
730PM UPDATE...
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD TOP WARMING OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY TAKING PLACE
WITH LINE OF CONVECTION DECAYING TO SHOWERS AS IT MOVES TOWARDS
THE TRI STATE AREA. USED THE TRENDS FROM THE HRRR IN ITS
PROGRESSION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW A VORTICITY MAX AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REACHING THE OH RIVER AROUND 00-06Z. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH 12Z...AS
ONLY THE GFS IS BRINGING SOME QPF ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE BRINGS
QPF LATER ON THURSDAY AND THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA DRY. FOR
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED THE GFS QPF KEEPING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS EXPECTING LOWS CLOSE TO DEWPOINTS AND HIGHS ON
THURSDAY INTO THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL FIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU. WITH
UPPER SUPPORT OVER THE REGION THOUGH...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS TIME FRAME FOR THE BETTER COVERAGE IN CONVECTION. THERE MAY
BE A REPRIEVE POSSIBLY FRI AS THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY FLEXES ITS
MUSCLE BACK INTO THE REGION. WARM AND MUGGY THE BEST DESCRIPTOR
FOR TEMPS/DEWPTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING
TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER
AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY LATE SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF HTS IS CURRENTLY FALLING APART AT THIS
HOUR...AND HAVE REMOVED THE TSRA FROM THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS
FOR THAT PARTICULAR LOCATION.

WILL SEE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AFTER 03Z TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD
BE ABOVE 3KFT. A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM AT ANY TIME CANNOT BE
COUNTED OUT THANKS TO A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING IN FROM CENTRAL
OHIO...WITH BETTER CHANCES TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER OVERNIGHT. WILL
NOT CARRY PREVAILING TSRA HOWEVER AND HAVE OPTIMISTIC TAFS GOING
FORWARD.

LATE RIVER VALLEY FOG TONIGHT IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHLAND VALLEYS AND TOWARDS HTS WHERE RAIN MAY FALL OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. ONLY IFR IN THE TAFS IS FOR EKN.

CONVECTION A POSSIBILITY AGAIN ON THURSDAY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
OHIO RIVER.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VALLEY FOG MAY VARY FROM FORECAST TONIGHT.
ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY HIT TERMINALS.

.AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ/26
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...26



000
FXUS61 KRLX 272345
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
745 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT. A FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH LATE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
730PM UPDATE...
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD TOP WARMING OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY TAKING PLACE
WITH LINE OF CONVECTION DECAYING TO SHOWERS AS IT MOVES TOWARDS
THE TRI STATE AREA. USED THE TRENDS FROM THE HRRR IN ITS
PROGRESSION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW A VORTICITY MAX AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REACHING THE OH RIVER AROUND 00-06Z. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH 12Z...AS
ONLY THE GFS IS BRINGING SOME QPF ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE BRINGS
QPF LATER ON THURSDAY AND THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA DRY. FOR
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED THE GFS QPF KEEPING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS EXPECTING LOWS CLOSE TO DEWPOINTS AND HIGHS ON
THURSDAY INTO THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL FIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU. WITH
UPPER SUPPORT OVER THE REGION THOUGH...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS TIME FRAME FOR THE BETTER COVERAGE IN CONVECTION. THERE MAY
BE A REPRIEVE POSSIBLY FRI AS THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY FLEXES ITS
MUSCLE BACK INTO THE REGION. WARM AND MUGGY THE BEST DESCRIPTOR
FOR TEMPS/DEWPTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING
TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER
AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY LATE SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF HTS IS CURRENTLY FALLING APART AT THIS
HOUR...AND HAVE REMOVED THE TSRA FROM THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS
FOR THAT PARTICULAR LOCATION.

WILL SEE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AFTER 03Z TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD
BE ABOVE 3KFT. A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM AT ANY TIME CANNOT BE
COUNTED OUT THANKS TO A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING IN FROM CENTRAL
OHIO...WITH BETTER CHANCES TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER OVERNIGHT. WILL
NOT CARRY PREVAILING TSRA HOWEVER AND HAVE OPTIMISTIC TAFS GOING
FORWARD.

LATE RIVER VALLEY FOG TONIGHT IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHLAND VALLEYS AND TOWARDS HTS WHERE RAIN MAY FALL OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. ONLY IFR IN THE TAFS IS FOR EKN.

CONVECTION A POSSIBILITY AGAIN ON THURSDAY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
OHIO RIVER.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VALLEY FOG MAY VARY FROM FORECAST TONIGHT.
ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY HIT TERMINALS.

.AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ/26
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...26



000
FXUS61 KRLX 272345
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
745 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT. A FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH LATE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
730PM UPDATE...
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD TOP WARMING OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY TAKING PLACE
WITH LINE OF CONVECTION DECAYING TO SHOWERS AS IT MOVES TOWARDS
THE TRI STATE AREA. USED THE TRENDS FROM THE HRRR IN ITS
PROGRESSION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW A VORTICITY MAX AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REACHING THE OH RIVER AROUND 00-06Z. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH 12Z...AS
ONLY THE GFS IS BRINGING SOME QPF ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE BRINGS
QPF LATER ON THURSDAY AND THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA DRY. FOR
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED THE GFS QPF KEEPING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS EXPECTING LOWS CLOSE TO DEWPOINTS AND HIGHS ON
THURSDAY INTO THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL FIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU. WITH
UPPER SUPPORT OVER THE REGION THOUGH...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS TIME FRAME FOR THE BETTER COVERAGE IN CONVECTION. THERE MAY
BE A REPRIEVE POSSIBLY FRI AS THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY FLEXES ITS
MUSCLE BACK INTO THE REGION. WARM AND MUGGY THE BEST DESCRIPTOR
FOR TEMPS/DEWPTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING
TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER
AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY LATE SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF HTS IS CURRENTLY FALLING APART AT THIS
HOUR...AND HAVE REMOVED THE TSRA FROM THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS
FOR THAT PARTICULAR LOCATION.

WILL SEE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AFTER 03Z TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD
BE ABOVE 3KFT. A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM AT ANY TIME CANNOT BE
COUNTED OUT THANKS TO A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING IN FROM CENTRAL
OHIO...WITH BETTER CHANCES TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER OVERNIGHT. WILL
NOT CARRY PREVAILING TSRA HOWEVER AND HAVE OPTIMISTIC TAFS GOING
FORWARD.

LATE RIVER VALLEY FOG TONIGHT IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHLAND VALLEYS AND TOWARDS HTS WHERE RAIN MAY FALL OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. ONLY IFR IN THE TAFS IS FOR EKN.

CONVECTION A POSSIBILITY AGAIN ON THURSDAY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
OHIO RIVER.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VALLEY FOG MAY VARY FROM FORECAST TONIGHT.
ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY HIT TERMINALS.

.AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ/26
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...26



000
FXUS61 KRLX 271939
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
339 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT. A FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH LATE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS SHOW A VORTICITY MAX AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REACHING THE OH RIVER AROUND 00-06Z. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH 12Z...AS
ONLY THE GFS IS BRINGING SOME QPF ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE BRINGS
QPF LATER ON THURSDAY AND THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA DRY. FOR
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED THE GFS QPF KEEPING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS EXPECTING LOWS CLOSE TO DEWPOINTS AND HIGHS ON
THURSDAY INTO THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL FIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU. WITH
UPPER SUPPORT OVER THE REGION THOUGH...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS TIME FRAME FOR THE BETTER COVEREAGE IN CONVECTION. THERE MAY
BE A REPRIEVE POSSIBLY FRI AS THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY FLEXES ITS
MUSCLE BACK INTO THE REGION. WARM AND MUGGY THE BEST DESCRIPTOR
FOR TEMPS/DEWPTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING
TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER
AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY LATE SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MORNING LOW STRATUS HAS TRANSFORMED INTO DIURNAL CU ACROSS THE
AREA PROVIDING POCKETS OF SUNSHINE. WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...EXPECT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING TO TAKE PLACE TO FORM
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE SITES MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED COULD BE HTS AND PKB.
THEREFORE...INCLUDED VCTS IN THE BEGINNING OF THEIR TAFS. IN
GENERAL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...EXCEPT UNDER A BRIEF
MVFR/IFR SHOWER OF STORM.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES TONIGHT FROM THE WEST TO PROVIDE
A LITTLE BIT OF FORCING. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING IN
PLACE UNDER WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY TOWARDS THE PREDAWN HOURS. THEREFORE...INCLUDED VCTS AS
WELL AT MOST PLACES. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS ONLY THE GFS BRINGS QPF
OVERNIGHT...WHEN COMPARED WITH THE SUITE OF SYNOPTIC AND HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY MAY DROP BRIEFLY LOWER THAN FORECAST IN
CONVECTION THIS EVENING. LOWER CEILINGS THAN FORECAST MAY ALSO
FORM 06Z TO 12Z THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION IN THE
MUGGY LATE NIGHT AIR.

.AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ



000
FXUS61 KRLX 271939
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
339 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT. A FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH LATE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS SHOW A VORTICITY MAX AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REACHING THE OH RIVER AROUND 00-06Z. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH 12Z...AS
ONLY THE GFS IS BRINGING SOME QPF ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE BRINGS
QPF LATER ON THURSDAY AND THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA DRY. FOR
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED THE GFS QPF KEEPING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS EXPECTING LOWS CLOSE TO DEWPOINTS AND HIGHS ON
THURSDAY INTO THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL FIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU. WITH
UPPER SUPPORT OVER THE REGION THOUGH...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS TIME FRAME FOR THE BETTER COVEREAGE IN CONVECTION. THERE MAY
BE A REPRIEVE POSSIBLY FRI AS THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY FLEXES ITS
MUSCLE BACK INTO THE REGION. WARM AND MUGGY THE BEST DESCRIPTOR
FOR TEMPS/DEWPTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING
TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER
AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY LATE SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MORNING LOW STRATUS HAS TRANSFORMED INTO DIURNAL CU ACROSS THE
AREA PROVIDING POCKETS OF SUNSHINE. WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...EXPECT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING TO TAKE PLACE TO FORM
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE SITES MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED COULD BE HTS AND PKB.
THEREFORE...INCLUDED VCTS IN THE BEGINNING OF THEIR TAFS. IN
GENERAL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...EXCEPT UNDER A BRIEF
MVFR/IFR SHOWER OF STORM.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES TONIGHT FROM THE WEST TO PROVIDE
A LITTLE BIT OF FORCING. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING IN
PLACE UNDER WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY TOWARDS THE PREDAWN HOURS. THEREFORE...INCLUDED VCTS AS
WELL AT MOST PLACES. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS ONLY THE GFS BRINGS QPF
OVERNIGHT...WHEN COMPARED WITH THE SUITE OF SYNOPTIC AND HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY MAY DROP BRIEFLY LOWER THAN FORECAST IN
CONVECTION THIS EVENING. LOWER CEILINGS THAN FORECAST MAY ALSO
FORM 06Z TO 12Z THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION IN THE
MUGGY LATE NIGHT AIR.

.AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 271818
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
218 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT. A FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS SHOW A VORTICITY MAX AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REACHING THE OH RIVER AROUND 00-06Z. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH 12Z...AS
ONLY THE GFS IS BRINGING SOME QPF ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE BRINGS
QPF LATER ON THURSDAY AND THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA DRY. FOR
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED THE GFS QPF KEEPING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS EXPECTING LOWS CLOSE TO DEWPOINTS AND HIGHS ON
THURSDAY INTO THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE HOT...HUMID...AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE PERIOD. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY...BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY
FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRIMARILY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH ANY RIPPLE IN THE FLOW WILL
ONLY HELP TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THE
PERIOD APPEARS TO BE LOW...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL CONTINUE. HEIGHTS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY BUILD THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. MAX
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S FOR
MOST OF THE AREA...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 90S IN A FEW SPOTS
BY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING
TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER
AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MORNING LOW STRATUS HAS TRANSFORMED INTO DIURNAL CU ACROSS THE
AREA PROVIDING POCKETS OF SUNSHINE. WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...EXPECT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING TO TAKE PLACE TO FORM
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE SITES MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED COULD BE HTS AND PKB.
THEREFORE...INCLUDED VCTS IN THE BEGINNING OF THEIR TAFS. IN
GENERAL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...EXCEPT UNDER A BRIEF
MVFR/IFR SHOWER OF STORM.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES TONIGHT FROM THE WEST TO PROVIDE
A LITTLE BIT OF FORCING. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING IN
PLACE UNDER WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY TOWARDS THE PREDAWN HOURS. THEREFORE...INCLUDED VCTS AS
WELL AT MOST PLACES. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS ONLY THE GFS BRINGS QPF
OVERNIGHT...WHEN COMPARED WITH THE SUITE OF SYNOPTIC AND HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY MAY DROP BRIEFLY LOWER THAN FORECAST IN
CONVECTION THIS EVENING. LOWER CEILINGS THAN FORECAST MAY ALSO
FORM 06Z TO 12Z THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION IN THE
MUGGY LATE NIGHT AIR.

.AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ



000
FXUS61 KRLX 271818
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
218 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT. A FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS SHOW A VORTICITY MAX AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REACHING THE OH RIVER AROUND 00-06Z. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH 12Z...AS
ONLY THE GFS IS BRINGING SOME QPF ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE BRINGS
QPF LATER ON THURSDAY AND THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA DRY. FOR
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED THE GFS QPF KEEPING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS EXPECTING LOWS CLOSE TO DEWPOINTS AND HIGHS ON
THURSDAY INTO THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE HOT...HUMID...AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE PERIOD. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY...BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY
FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRIMARILY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH ANY RIPPLE IN THE FLOW WILL
ONLY HELP TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THE
PERIOD APPEARS TO BE LOW...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL CONTINUE. HEIGHTS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY BUILD THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. MAX
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S FOR
MOST OF THE AREA...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 90S IN A FEW SPOTS
BY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING
TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER
AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MORNING LOW STRATUS HAS TRANSFORMED INTO DIURNAL CU ACROSS THE
AREA PROVIDING POCKETS OF SUNSHINE. WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...EXPECT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING TO TAKE PLACE TO FORM
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE SITES MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED COULD BE HTS AND PKB.
THEREFORE...INCLUDED VCTS IN THE BEGINNING OF THEIR TAFS. IN
GENERAL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...EXCEPT UNDER A BRIEF
MVFR/IFR SHOWER OF STORM.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES TONIGHT FROM THE WEST TO PROVIDE
A LITTLE BIT OF FORCING. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING IN
PLACE UNDER WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY TOWARDS THE PREDAWN HOURS. THEREFORE...INCLUDED VCTS AS
WELL AT MOST PLACES. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS ONLY THE GFS BRINGS QPF
OVERNIGHT...WHEN COMPARED WITH THE SUITE OF SYNOPTIC AND HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY MAY DROP BRIEFLY LOWER THAN FORECAST IN
CONVECTION THIS EVENING. LOWER CEILINGS THAN FORECAST MAY ALSO
FORM 06Z TO 12Z THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION IN THE
MUGGY LATE NIGHT AIR.

.AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 271738
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
138 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT. A FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS FOLLOWING LATEST RADAR IMAGES.
ALSO TWEAKED SKY GRIDS PER SATELLITE IMAGES. REST OF FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AXIS RIDING UP E SIDE OF MAIN TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE MIDWEST...LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...TAKING BAND OF SHOWERS WITH IT. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAVE
BEHIND SOME MORNING MIST AND STRATOCU THAT WILL THEN BURN OFF AND
MIX OUT BY LATER THIS MORNING.

MODELS DRY THE COLUMN OUT CONSIDERABLY...ALLOWING FOR SIGNIFICANT
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. NAM CRANKS THE CAPE TO 1500-2000
J/KG IN RESPONSE BY LATE IN THE DAY...AS THE MIDWEST S/W TROUGH
APPROACHES. THIS COULD LEAD TO RATHER STRONG THUNDERSTORMS W OF
THE OHIO RIVER...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR SE OHIO...WHERE THE FLOW IS
STRONGEST. FARTHER E...LIGHTER FLOW AND LITTLE OR NO TRIGGER
SPELLS LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INTO THIS EVENING.

THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS LATE TODAY SHIFTS SLOWLY E/NEWD T AND
WANES TONIGHT AS THE FORCING S/W TROUGH LIFTS NEWD INTO THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.

LIKED HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS GIVEN AMPLE SUNSHINE FOR A
TIME TODAY AND ALSO STAYED ON HIGH SIDE FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE HOT...HUMID...AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE PERIOD. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY...BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY
FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRIMARILY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH ANY RIPPLE IN THE FLOW WILL
ONLY HELP TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THE
PERIOD APPEARS TO BE LOW...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL CONTINUE. HEIGHTS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY BUILD THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. MAX
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S FOR
MOST OF THE AREA...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 90S IN A FEW SPOTS
BY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING
TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER
AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MORNING LOW STRATUS HAS TRANSFORMED INTO DIURNAL CU ACROSS THE
AREA PROVIDING POCKETS OF SUNSHINE. WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...EXPECT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING TO TAKE PLACE TO FORM
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE SITES MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED COULD BE HTS AND PKB.
THEREFORE...INCLUDED VCTS IN THE BEGINNING OF THEIR TAFS. IN
GENERAL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...EXCEPT UNDER A BRIEF
MVFR/IFR SHOWER OF STORM.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES TONIGHT FROM THE WEST TO PROVIDE
A LITTLE BIT OF FORCING. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING IN
PLACE UNDER WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY TOWARDS THE PREDAWN HOURS. THEREFORE...INCLUDED VCTS AS
WELL AT MOST PLACES. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS ONLY THE GFS BRINGS QPF
OVERNIGHT...WHEN COMPARED WITH THE SUITE OF SYNOPTIC AND HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY MAY DROP BRIEFLY LOWER THAN FORECAST IN
CONVECTION THIS EVENING. LOWER CEILINGS THAN FORECAST MAY ALSO
FORM 06Z TO 12Z THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION IN THE
MUGGY LATE NIGHT AIR.

.AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...ARJ/TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 271738
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
138 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT. A FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS FOLLOWING LATEST RADAR IMAGES.
ALSO TWEAKED SKY GRIDS PER SATELLITE IMAGES. REST OF FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AXIS RIDING UP E SIDE OF MAIN TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE MIDWEST...LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...TAKING BAND OF SHOWERS WITH IT. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAVE
BEHIND SOME MORNING MIST AND STRATOCU THAT WILL THEN BURN OFF AND
MIX OUT BY LATER THIS MORNING.

MODELS DRY THE COLUMN OUT CONSIDERABLY...ALLOWING FOR SIGNIFICANT
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. NAM CRANKS THE CAPE TO 1500-2000
J/KG IN RESPONSE BY LATE IN THE DAY...AS THE MIDWEST S/W TROUGH
APPROACHES. THIS COULD LEAD TO RATHER STRONG THUNDERSTORMS W OF
THE OHIO RIVER...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR SE OHIO...WHERE THE FLOW IS
STRONGEST. FARTHER E...LIGHTER FLOW AND LITTLE OR NO TRIGGER
SPELLS LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INTO THIS EVENING.

THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS LATE TODAY SHIFTS SLOWLY E/NEWD T AND
WANES TONIGHT AS THE FORCING S/W TROUGH LIFTS NEWD INTO THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.

LIKED HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS GIVEN AMPLE SUNSHINE FOR A
TIME TODAY AND ALSO STAYED ON HIGH SIDE FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE HOT...HUMID...AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE PERIOD. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY...BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY
FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRIMARILY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH ANY RIPPLE IN THE FLOW WILL
ONLY HELP TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THE
PERIOD APPEARS TO BE LOW...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL CONTINUE. HEIGHTS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY BUILD THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. MAX
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S FOR
MOST OF THE AREA...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 90S IN A FEW SPOTS
BY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING
TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER
AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MORNING LOW STRATUS HAS TRANSFORMED INTO DIURNAL CU ACROSS THE
AREA PROVIDING POCKETS OF SUNSHINE. WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...EXPECT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING TO TAKE PLACE TO FORM
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE SITES MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED COULD BE HTS AND PKB.
THEREFORE...INCLUDED VCTS IN THE BEGINNING OF THEIR TAFS. IN
GENERAL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...EXCEPT UNDER A BRIEF
MVFR/IFR SHOWER OF STORM.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES TONIGHT FROM THE WEST TO PROVIDE
A LITTLE BIT OF FORCING. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING IN
PLACE UNDER WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY TOWARDS THE PREDAWN HOURS. THEREFORE...INCLUDED VCTS AS
WELL AT MOST PLACES. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS ONLY THE GFS BRINGS QPF
OVERNIGHT...WHEN COMPARED WITH THE SUITE OF SYNOPTIC AND HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY MAY DROP BRIEFLY LOWER THAN FORECAST IN
CONVECTION THIS EVENING. LOWER CEILINGS THAN FORECAST MAY ALSO
FORM 06Z TO 12Z THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION IN THE
MUGGY LATE NIGHT AIR.

.AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...ARJ/TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 271738
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
138 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT. A FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS FOLLOWING LATEST RADAR IMAGES.
ALSO TWEAKED SKY GRIDS PER SATELLITE IMAGES. REST OF FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AXIS RIDING UP E SIDE OF MAIN TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE MIDWEST...LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...TAKING BAND OF SHOWERS WITH IT. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAVE
BEHIND SOME MORNING MIST AND STRATOCU THAT WILL THEN BURN OFF AND
MIX OUT BY LATER THIS MORNING.

MODELS DRY THE COLUMN OUT CONSIDERABLY...ALLOWING FOR SIGNIFICANT
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. NAM CRANKS THE CAPE TO 1500-2000
J/KG IN RESPONSE BY LATE IN THE DAY...AS THE MIDWEST S/W TROUGH
APPROACHES. THIS COULD LEAD TO RATHER STRONG THUNDERSTORMS W OF
THE OHIO RIVER...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR SE OHIO...WHERE THE FLOW IS
STRONGEST. FARTHER E...LIGHTER FLOW AND LITTLE OR NO TRIGGER
SPELLS LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INTO THIS EVENING.

THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS LATE TODAY SHIFTS SLOWLY E/NEWD T AND
WANES TONIGHT AS THE FORCING S/W TROUGH LIFTS NEWD INTO THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.

LIKED HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS GIVEN AMPLE SUNSHINE FOR A
TIME TODAY AND ALSO STAYED ON HIGH SIDE FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE HOT...HUMID...AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE PERIOD. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY...BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY
FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRIMARILY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH ANY RIPPLE IN THE FLOW WILL
ONLY HELP TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THE
PERIOD APPEARS TO BE LOW...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL CONTINUE. HEIGHTS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY BUILD THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. MAX
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S FOR
MOST OF THE AREA...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 90S IN A FEW SPOTS
BY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING
TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER
AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MORNING LOW STRATUS HAS TRANSFORMED INTO DIURNAL CU ACROSS THE
AREA PROVIDING POCKETS OF SUNSHINE. WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...EXPECT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING TO TAKE PLACE TO FORM
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE SITES MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED COULD BE HTS AND PKB.
THEREFORE...INCLUDED VCTS IN THE BEGINNING OF THEIR TAFS. IN
GENERAL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...EXCEPT UNDER A BRIEF
MVFR/IFR SHOWER OF STORM.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES TONIGHT FROM THE WEST TO PROVIDE
A LITTLE BIT OF FORCING. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING IN
PLACE UNDER WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY TOWARDS THE PREDAWN HOURS. THEREFORE...INCLUDED VCTS AS
WELL AT MOST PLACES. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS ONLY THE GFS BRINGS QPF
OVERNIGHT...WHEN COMPARED WITH THE SUITE OF SYNOPTIC AND HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY MAY DROP BRIEFLY LOWER THAN FORECAST IN
CONVECTION THIS EVENING. LOWER CEILINGS THAN FORECAST MAY ALSO
FORM 06Z TO 12Z THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION IN THE
MUGGY LATE NIGHT AIR.

.AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...ARJ/TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 271738
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
138 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT. A FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS FOLLOWING LATEST RADAR IMAGES.
ALSO TWEAKED SKY GRIDS PER SATELLITE IMAGES. REST OF FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AXIS RIDING UP E SIDE OF MAIN TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE MIDWEST...LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...TAKING BAND OF SHOWERS WITH IT. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAVE
BEHIND SOME MORNING MIST AND STRATOCU THAT WILL THEN BURN OFF AND
MIX OUT BY LATER THIS MORNING.

MODELS DRY THE COLUMN OUT CONSIDERABLY...ALLOWING FOR SIGNIFICANT
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. NAM CRANKS THE CAPE TO 1500-2000
J/KG IN RESPONSE BY LATE IN THE DAY...AS THE MIDWEST S/W TROUGH
APPROACHES. THIS COULD LEAD TO RATHER STRONG THUNDERSTORMS W OF
THE OHIO RIVER...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR SE OHIO...WHERE THE FLOW IS
STRONGEST. FARTHER E...LIGHTER FLOW AND LITTLE OR NO TRIGGER
SPELLS LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INTO THIS EVENING.

THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS LATE TODAY SHIFTS SLOWLY E/NEWD T AND
WANES TONIGHT AS THE FORCING S/W TROUGH LIFTS NEWD INTO THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.

LIKED HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS GIVEN AMPLE SUNSHINE FOR A
TIME TODAY AND ALSO STAYED ON HIGH SIDE FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE HOT...HUMID...AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE PERIOD. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY...BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY
FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRIMARILY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH ANY RIPPLE IN THE FLOW WILL
ONLY HELP TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THE
PERIOD APPEARS TO BE LOW...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL CONTINUE. HEIGHTS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY BUILD THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. MAX
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S FOR
MOST OF THE AREA...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 90S IN A FEW SPOTS
BY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING
TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER
AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MORNING LOW STRATUS HAS TRANSFORMED INTO DIURNAL CU ACROSS THE
AREA PROVIDING POCKETS OF SUNSHINE. WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...EXPECT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING TO TAKE PLACE TO FORM
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE SITES MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED COULD BE HTS AND PKB.
THEREFORE...INCLUDED VCTS IN THE BEGINNING OF THEIR TAFS. IN
GENERAL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...EXCEPT UNDER A BRIEF
MVFR/IFR SHOWER OF STORM.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES TONIGHT FROM THE WEST TO PROVIDE
A LITTLE BIT OF FORCING. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING IN
PLACE UNDER WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY TOWARDS THE PREDAWN HOURS. THEREFORE...INCLUDED VCTS AS
WELL AT MOST PLACES. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS ONLY THE GFS BRINGS QPF
OVERNIGHT...WHEN COMPARED WITH THE SUITE OF SYNOPTIC AND HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY MAY DROP BRIEFLY LOWER THAN FORECAST IN
CONVECTION THIS EVENING. LOWER CEILINGS THAN FORECAST MAY ALSO
FORM 06Z TO 12Z THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION IN THE
MUGGY LATE NIGHT AIR.

.AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...ARJ/TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 271738
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
138 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT. A FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS FOLLOWING LATEST RADAR IMAGES.
ALSO TWEAKED SKY GRIDS PER SATELLITE IMAGES. REST OF FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AXIS RIDING UP E SIDE OF MAIN TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE MIDWEST...LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...TAKING BAND OF SHOWERS WITH IT. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAVE
BEHIND SOME MORNING MIST AND STRATOCU THAT WILL THEN BURN OFF AND
MIX OUT BY LATER THIS MORNING.

MODELS DRY THE COLUMN OUT CONSIDERABLY...ALLOWING FOR SIGNIFICANT
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. NAM CRANKS THE CAPE TO 1500-2000
J/KG IN RESPONSE BY LATE IN THE DAY...AS THE MIDWEST S/W TROUGH
APPROACHES. THIS COULD LEAD TO RATHER STRONG THUNDERSTORMS W OF
THE OHIO RIVER...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR SE OHIO...WHERE THE FLOW IS
STRONGEST. FARTHER E...LIGHTER FLOW AND LITTLE OR NO TRIGGER
SPELLS LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INTO THIS EVENING.

THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS LATE TODAY SHIFTS SLOWLY E/NEWD T AND
WANES TONIGHT AS THE FORCING S/W TROUGH LIFTS NEWD INTO THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.

LIKED HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS GIVEN AMPLE SUNSHINE FOR A
TIME TODAY AND ALSO STAYED ON HIGH SIDE FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE HOT...HUMID...AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE PERIOD. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY...BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY
FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRIMARILY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH ANY RIPPLE IN THE FLOW WILL
ONLY HELP TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THE
PERIOD APPEARS TO BE LOW...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL CONTINUE. HEIGHTS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY BUILD THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. MAX
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S FOR
MOST OF THE AREA...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 90S IN A FEW SPOTS
BY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING
TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER
AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MORNING LOW STRATUS HAS TRANSFORMED INTO DIURNAL CU ACROSS THE
AREA PROVIDING POCKETS OF SUNSHINE. WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...EXPECT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING TO TAKE PLACE TO FORM
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE SITES MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED COULD BE HTS AND PKB.
THEREFORE...INCLUDED VCTS IN THE BEGINNING OF THEIR TAFS. IN
GENERAL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...EXCEPT UNDER A BRIEF
MVFR/IFR SHOWER OF STORM.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES TONIGHT FROM THE WEST TO PROVIDE
A LITTLE BIT OF FORCING. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING IN
PLACE UNDER WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY TOWARDS THE PREDAWN HOURS. THEREFORE...INCLUDED VCTS AS
WELL AT MOST PLACES. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS ONLY THE GFS BRINGS QPF
OVERNIGHT...WHEN COMPARED WITH THE SUITE OF SYNOPTIC AND HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY MAY DROP BRIEFLY LOWER THAN FORECAST IN
CONVECTION THIS EVENING. LOWER CEILINGS THAN FORECAST MAY ALSO
FORM 06Z TO 12Z THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION IN THE
MUGGY LATE NIGHT AIR.

.AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...ARJ/TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 271738
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
138 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT. A FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS FOLLOWING LATEST RADAR IMAGES.
ALSO TWEAKED SKY GRIDS PER SATELLITE IMAGES. REST OF FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AXIS RIDING UP E SIDE OF MAIN TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE MIDWEST...LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...TAKING BAND OF SHOWERS WITH IT. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAVE
BEHIND SOME MORNING MIST AND STRATOCU THAT WILL THEN BURN OFF AND
MIX OUT BY LATER THIS MORNING.

MODELS DRY THE COLUMN OUT CONSIDERABLY...ALLOWING FOR SIGNIFICANT
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. NAM CRANKS THE CAPE TO 1500-2000
J/KG IN RESPONSE BY LATE IN THE DAY...AS THE MIDWEST S/W TROUGH
APPROACHES. THIS COULD LEAD TO RATHER STRONG THUNDERSTORMS W OF
THE OHIO RIVER...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR SE OHIO...WHERE THE FLOW IS
STRONGEST. FARTHER E...LIGHTER FLOW AND LITTLE OR NO TRIGGER
SPELLS LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INTO THIS EVENING.

THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS LATE TODAY SHIFTS SLOWLY E/NEWD T AND
WANES TONIGHT AS THE FORCING S/W TROUGH LIFTS NEWD INTO THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.

LIKED HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS GIVEN AMPLE SUNSHINE FOR A
TIME TODAY AND ALSO STAYED ON HIGH SIDE FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE HOT...HUMID...AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE PERIOD. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY...BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY
FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRIMARILY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH ANY RIPPLE IN THE FLOW WILL
ONLY HELP TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THE
PERIOD APPEARS TO BE LOW...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL CONTINUE. HEIGHTS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY BUILD THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. MAX
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S FOR
MOST OF THE AREA...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 90S IN A FEW SPOTS
BY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING
TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER
AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MORNING LOW STRATUS HAS TRANSFORMED INTO DIURNAL CU ACROSS THE
AREA PROVIDING POCKETS OF SUNSHINE. WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...EXPECT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING TO TAKE PLACE TO FORM
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE SITES MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED COULD BE HTS AND PKB.
THEREFORE...INCLUDED VCTS IN THE BEGINNING OF THEIR TAFS. IN
GENERAL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...EXCEPT UNDER A BRIEF
MVFR/IFR SHOWER OF STORM.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES TONIGHT FROM THE WEST TO PROVIDE
A LITTLE BIT OF FORCING. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING IN
PLACE UNDER WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY TOWARDS THE PREDAWN HOURS. THEREFORE...INCLUDED VCTS AS
WELL AT MOST PLACES. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS ONLY THE GFS BRINGS QPF
OVERNIGHT...WHEN COMPARED WITH THE SUITE OF SYNOPTIC AND HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY MAY DROP BRIEFLY LOWER THAN FORECAST IN
CONVECTION THIS EVENING. LOWER CEILINGS THAN FORECAST MAY ALSO
FORM 06Z TO 12Z THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION IN THE
MUGGY LATE NIGHT AIR.

.AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...ARJ/TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ



000
FXUS61 KRLX 271320
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
920 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING. ANOTHER SKIRTS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. A
FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS FOLLOWING LATEST RADAR IMAGES.
ALSO TWEAKED SKY GRIDS PER SATELLITE IMAGES. REST OF FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AXIS RIDING UP E SIDE OF MAIN TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE MIDWEST...LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...TAKING BAND OF SHOWERS WITH IT. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAVE
BEHIND SOME MORNING MIST AND STRATOCU THAT WILL THEN BURN OFF AND
MIX OUT BY LATER THIS MORNING.

MODELS DRY THE COLUMN OUT CONSIDERABLY...ALLOWING FOR SIGNIFICANT
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. NAM CRANKS THE CAPE TO 1500-2000
J/KG IN RESPONSE BY LATE IN THE DAY...AS THE MIDWEST S/W TROUGH
APPROACHES. THIS COULD LEAD TO RATHER STRONG THUNDERSTORMS W OF
THE OHIO RIVER...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR SE OHIO...WHERE THE FLOW IS
STRONGEST. FARTHER E...LIGHTER FLOW AND LITTLE OR NO TRIGGER
SPELLS LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INTO THIS EVENING.

THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS LATE TODAY SHIFTS SLOWLY E/NEWD T AND
WANES TONIGHT AS THE FORCING S/W TROUGH LIFTS NEWD INTO THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.

LIKED HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS GIVEN AMPLE SUNSHINE FOR A
TIME TODAY AND ALSO STAYED ON HIGH SIDE FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE HOT...HUMID...AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE PERIOD. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY...BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY
FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRIMARILY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH ANY RIPPLE IN THE FLOW WILL
ONLY HELP TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THE
PERIOD APPEARS TO BE LOW...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL CONTINUE. HEIGHTS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY BUILD THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. MAX
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S FOR
MOST OF THE AREA...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 90S IN A FEW SPOTS
BY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING
TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER
AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
N-S ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING SLOWLY EWD WITH THE
INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVING N THROUGH NE WV...BRINGING MVFR TO BRIEF
IFR CONDITIONS WITH IT FIRST THING THIS MORNING. PATCHY MVFR
STRATOCU WILL LIFT AND BREAK UP TOWARD MIDDAY TODAY.

THE WARM AND HUMID PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECTING A
VFR AFTERNOON WITH A RELATIVE DEARTH OF ACTIVITY ON RADAR. THE
NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
BEGINNING IN THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...AND AGAIN WORKING SLOWLY
EWD.

SFC FLOW WILL CONTINUE LIGHT S TO SW BY DAY AND S TO SE BY NT
WHILE LIGHT TO MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES.FORECAST
CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND IMPROVEMENT OF MVFR / IFR MAY VARY
THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY CKB AND EKN.  VSBY MAY DROP BRIEFLY LOWER
THAN FORECAST IN CONVECTION THIS EVENING. LOWER CEILINGS THAN
FORECAST MAY ALSO FORM 06Z TO 12Z THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
CONVECTION IN THE MUGGY LATE NIGHT AIR.

.AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...ARJ/TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...TRM




000
FXUS61 KRLX 271320
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
920 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING. ANOTHER SKIRTS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. A
FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS FOLLOWING LATEST RADAR IMAGES.
ALSO TWEAKED SKY GRIDS PER SATELLITE IMAGES. REST OF FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AXIS RIDING UP E SIDE OF MAIN TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE MIDWEST...LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...TAKING BAND OF SHOWERS WITH IT. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAVE
BEHIND SOME MORNING MIST AND STRATOCU THAT WILL THEN BURN OFF AND
MIX OUT BY LATER THIS MORNING.

MODELS DRY THE COLUMN OUT CONSIDERABLY...ALLOWING FOR SIGNIFICANT
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. NAM CRANKS THE CAPE TO 1500-2000
J/KG IN RESPONSE BY LATE IN THE DAY...AS THE MIDWEST S/W TROUGH
APPROACHES. THIS COULD LEAD TO RATHER STRONG THUNDERSTORMS W OF
THE OHIO RIVER...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR SE OHIO...WHERE THE FLOW IS
STRONGEST. FARTHER E...LIGHTER FLOW AND LITTLE OR NO TRIGGER
SPELLS LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INTO THIS EVENING.

THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS LATE TODAY SHIFTS SLOWLY E/NEWD T AND
WANES TONIGHT AS THE FORCING S/W TROUGH LIFTS NEWD INTO THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.

LIKED HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS GIVEN AMPLE SUNSHINE FOR A
TIME TODAY AND ALSO STAYED ON HIGH SIDE FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE HOT...HUMID...AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE PERIOD. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY...BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY
FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRIMARILY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH ANY RIPPLE IN THE FLOW WILL
ONLY HELP TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THE
PERIOD APPEARS TO BE LOW...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL CONTINUE. HEIGHTS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY BUILD THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. MAX
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S FOR
MOST OF THE AREA...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 90S IN A FEW SPOTS
BY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING
TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER
AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
N-S ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING SLOWLY EWD WITH THE
INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVING N THROUGH NE WV...BRINGING MVFR TO BRIEF
IFR CONDITIONS WITH IT FIRST THING THIS MORNING. PATCHY MVFR
STRATOCU WILL LIFT AND BREAK UP TOWARD MIDDAY TODAY.

THE WARM AND HUMID PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECTING A
VFR AFTERNOON WITH A RELATIVE DEARTH OF ACTIVITY ON RADAR. THE
NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
BEGINNING IN THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...AND AGAIN WORKING SLOWLY
EWD.

SFC FLOW WILL CONTINUE LIGHT S TO SW BY DAY AND S TO SE BY NT
WHILE LIGHT TO MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES.FORECAST
CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND IMPROVEMENT OF MVFR / IFR MAY VARY
THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY CKB AND EKN.  VSBY MAY DROP BRIEFLY LOWER
THAN FORECAST IN CONVECTION THIS EVENING. LOWER CEILINGS THAN
FORECAST MAY ALSO FORM 06Z TO 12Z THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
CONVECTION IN THE MUGGY LATE NIGHT AIR.

.AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...ARJ/TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...TRM




000
FXUS61 KRLX 271320
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
920 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING. ANOTHER SKIRTS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. A
FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS FOLLOWING LATEST RADAR IMAGES.
ALSO TWEAKED SKY GRIDS PER SATELLITE IMAGES. REST OF FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AXIS RIDING UP E SIDE OF MAIN TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE MIDWEST...LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...TAKING BAND OF SHOWERS WITH IT. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAVE
BEHIND SOME MORNING MIST AND STRATOCU THAT WILL THEN BURN OFF AND
MIX OUT BY LATER THIS MORNING.

MODELS DRY THE COLUMN OUT CONSIDERABLY...ALLOWING FOR SIGNIFICANT
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. NAM CRANKS THE CAPE TO 1500-2000
J/KG IN RESPONSE BY LATE IN THE DAY...AS THE MIDWEST S/W TROUGH
APPROACHES. THIS COULD LEAD TO RATHER STRONG THUNDERSTORMS W OF
THE OHIO RIVER...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR SE OHIO...WHERE THE FLOW IS
STRONGEST. FARTHER E...LIGHTER FLOW AND LITTLE OR NO TRIGGER
SPELLS LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INTO THIS EVENING.

THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS LATE TODAY SHIFTS SLOWLY E/NEWD T AND
WANES TONIGHT AS THE FORCING S/W TROUGH LIFTS NEWD INTO THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.

LIKED HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS GIVEN AMPLE SUNSHINE FOR A
TIME TODAY AND ALSO STAYED ON HIGH SIDE FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE HOT...HUMID...AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE PERIOD. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY...BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY
FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRIMARILY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH ANY RIPPLE IN THE FLOW WILL
ONLY HELP TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THE
PERIOD APPEARS TO BE LOW...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL CONTINUE. HEIGHTS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY BUILD THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. MAX
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S FOR
MOST OF THE AREA...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 90S IN A FEW SPOTS
BY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING
TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER
AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
N-S ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING SLOWLY EWD WITH THE
INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVING N THROUGH NE WV...BRINGING MVFR TO BRIEF
IFR CONDITIONS WITH IT FIRST THING THIS MORNING. PATCHY MVFR
STRATOCU WILL LIFT AND BREAK UP TOWARD MIDDAY TODAY.

THE WARM AND HUMID PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECTING A
VFR AFTERNOON WITH A RELATIVE DEARTH OF ACTIVITY ON RADAR. THE
NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
BEGINNING IN THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...AND AGAIN WORKING SLOWLY
EWD.

SFC FLOW WILL CONTINUE LIGHT S TO SW BY DAY AND S TO SE BY NT
WHILE LIGHT TO MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES.FORECAST
CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND IMPROVEMENT OF MVFR / IFR MAY VARY
THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY CKB AND EKN.  VSBY MAY DROP BRIEFLY LOWER
THAN FORECAST IN CONVECTION THIS EVENING. LOWER CEILINGS THAN
FORECAST MAY ALSO FORM 06Z TO 12Z THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
CONVECTION IN THE MUGGY LATE NIGHT AIR.

.AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...ARJ/TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...TRM



000
FXUS61 KRLX 271137
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
737 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING. ANOTHER SKIRTS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. A
FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AXIS RIDING UP E SIDE OF MAIN TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE MIDWEST...LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...TAKING BAND OF SHOWERS WITH IT. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAVE
BEHIND SOME MORNING MIST AND STRATOCU THAT WILL THEN BURN OFF AND
MIX OUT BY LATER THIS MORNING.

MODELS DRY THE COLUMN OUT CONSIDERABLY...ALLOWING FOR SIGNIFICANT
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. NAM CRANKS THE CAPE TO 1500-2000
J/KG IN RESPONSE BY LATE IN THE DAY...AS THE MIDWEST S/W TROUGH
APPROACHES. THIS COULD LEAD TO RATHER STRONG THUNDERSTORMS W OF
THE OHIO RIVER...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR SE OHIO...WHERE THE FLOW IS
STRONGEST. FARTHER E...LIGHTER FLOW AND LITTLE OR NO TRIGGER
SPELLS LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INTO THIS EVENING.

THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS LATE TODAY SHIFTS SLOWLY E/NEWD T AND
WANES TONIGHT AS THE FORCING S/W TROUGH LIFTS NEWD INTO THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.

LIKED HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS GIVEN AMPLE SUNSHINE FOR A
TIME TODAY AND ALSO STAYED ON HIGH SIDE FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE HOT...HUMID...AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE PERIOD. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY...BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY
FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRIMARILY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH ANY RIPPLE IN THE FLOW WILL
ONLY HELP TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THE
PERIOD APPEARS TO BE LOW...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL CONTINUE. HEIGHTS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY BUILD THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. MAX
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S FOR
MOST OF THE AREA...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 90S IN A FEW SPOTS
BY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING
TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER
AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
N-S ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING SLOWLY EWD WITH THE
INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVING N THROUGH NE WV...BRINGING MVFR TO BRIEF
IFR CONDITIONS WITH IT FIRST THING THIS MORNING. PATCHY MVFR
STRATOCU WILL LIFT AND BREAK UP TOWARD MIDDAY TODAY.

THE WARM AND HUMID PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECTING A
VFR AFTERNOON WITH A RELATIVE DEARTH OF ACTIVITY ON RADAR. THE
NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
BEGINNING IN THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...AND AGAIN WORKING SLOWLY
EWD.

SFC FLOW WILL CONTINUE LIGHT S TO SW BY DAY AND S TO SE BY NT
WHILE LIGHT TO MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES.FORECAST
CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND IMPROVEMENT OF MVFR / IFR MAY VARY
THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY CKB AND EKN.  VSBY MAY DROP BRIEFLY LOWER
THAN FORECAST IN CONVECTION THIS EVENING. LOWER CEILINGS THAN
FORECAST MAY ALSO FORM 06Z TO 12Z THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
CONVECTION IN THE MUGGY LATE NIGHT AIR.

.AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...TRM



000
FXUS61 KRLX 271137
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
737 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING. ANOTHER SKIRTS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. A
FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AXIS RIDING UP E SIDE OF MAIN TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE MIDWEST...LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...TAKING BAND OF SHOWERS WITH IT. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAVE
BEHIND SOME MORNING MIST AND STRATOCU THAT WILL THEN BURN OFF AND
MIX OUT BY LATER THIS MORNING.

MODELS DRY THE COLUMN OUT CONSIDERABLY...ALLOWING FOR SIGNIFICANT
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. NAM CRANKS THE CAPE TO 1500-2000
J/KG IN RESPONSE BY LATE IN THE DAY...AS THE MIDWEST S/W TROUGH
APPROACHES. THIS COULD LEAD TO RATHER STRONG THUNDERSTORMS W OF
THE OHIO RIVER...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR SE OHIO...WHERE THE FLOW IS
STRONGEST. FARTHER E...LIGHTER FLOW AND LITTLE OR NO TRIGGER
SPELLS LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INTO THIS EVENING.

THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS LATE TODAY SHIFTS SLOWLY E/NEWD T AND
WANES TONIGHT AS THE FORCING S/W TROUGH LIFTS NEWD INTO THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.

LIKED HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS GIVEN AMPLE SUNSHINE FOR A
TIME TODAY AND ALSO STAYED ON HIGH SIDE FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE HOT...HUMID...AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE PERIOD. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY...BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY
FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRIMARILY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH ANY RIPPLE IN THE FLOW WILL
ONLY HELP TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THE
PERIOD APPEARS TO BE LOW...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL CONTINUE. HEIGHTS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY BUILD THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. MAX
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S FOR
MOST OF THE AREA...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 90S IN A FEW SPOTS
BY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING
TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER
AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
N-S ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING SLOWLY EWD WITH THE
INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVING N THROUGH NE WV...BRINGING MVFR TO BRIEF
IFR CONDITIONS WITH IT FIRST THING THIS MORNING. PATCHY MVFR
STRATOCU WILL LIFT AND BREAK UP TOWARD MIDDAY TODAY.

THE WARM AND HUMID PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECTING A
VFR AFTERNOON WITH A RELATIVE DEARTH OF ACTIVITY ON RADAR. THE
NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
BEGINNING IN THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...AND AGAIN WORKING SLOWLY
EWD.

SFC FLOW WILL CONTINUE LIGHT S TO SW BY DAY AND S TO SE BY NT
WHILE LIGHT TO MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES.FORECAST
CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND IMPROVEMENT OF MVFR / IFR MAY VARY
THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY CKB AND EKN.  VSBY MAY DROP BRIEFLY LOWER
THAN FORECAST IN CONVECTION THIS EVENING. LOWER CEILINGS THAN
FORECAST MAY ALSO FORM 06Z TO 12Z THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
CONVECTION IN THE MUGGY LATE NIGHT AIR.

.AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...TRM



000
FXUS61 KRLX 271137
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
737 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING. ANOTHER SKIRTS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. A
FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AXIS RIDING UP E SIDE OF MAIN TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE MIDWEST...LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...TAKING BAND OF SHOWERS WITH IT. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAVE
BEHIND SOME MORNING MIST AND STRATOCU THAT WILL THEN BURN OFF AND
MIX OUT BY LATER THIS MORNING.

MODELS DRY THE COLUMN OUT CONSIDERABLY...ALLOWING FOR SIGNIFICANT
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. NAM CRANKS THE CAPE TO 1500-2000
J/KG IN RESPONSE BY LATE IN THE DAY...AS THE MIDWEST S/W TROUGH
APPROACHES. THIS COULD LEAD TO RATHER STRONG THUNDERSTORMS W OF
THE OHIO RIVER...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR SE OHIO...WHERE THE FLOW IS
STRONGEST. FARTHER E...LIGHTER FLOW AND LITTLE OR NO TRIGGER
SPELLS LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INTO THIS EVENING.

THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS LATE TODAY SHIFTS SLOWLY E/NEWD T AND
WANES TONIGHT AS THE FORCING S/W TROUGH LIFTS NEWD INTO THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.

LIKED HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS GIVEN AMPLE SUNSHINE FOR A
TIME TODAY AND ALSO STAYED ON HIGH SIDE FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE HOT...HUMID...AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE PERIOD. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY...BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY
FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRIMARILY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH ANY RIPPLE IN THE FLOW WILL
ONLY HELP TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THE
PERIOD APPEARS TO BE LOW...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL CONTINUE. HEIGHTS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY BUILD THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. MAX
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S FOR
MOST OF THE AREA...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 90S IN A FEW SPOTS
BY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING
TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER
AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
N-S ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING SLOWLY EWD WITH THE
INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVING N THROUGH NE WV...BRINGING MVFR TO BRIEF
IFR CONDITIONS WITH IT FIRST THING THIS MORNING. PATCHY MVFR
STRATOCU WILL LIFT AND BREAK UP TOWARD MIDDAY TODAY.

THE WARM AND HUMID PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECTING A
VFR AFTERNOON WITH A RELATIVE DEARTH OF ACTIVITY ON RADAR. THE
NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
BEGINNING IN THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...AND AGAIN WORKING SLOWLY
EWD.

SFC FLOW WILL CONTINUE LIGHT S TO SW BY DAY AND S TO SE BY NT
WHILE LIGHT TO MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES.FORECAST
CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND IMPROVEMENT OF MVFR / IFR MAY VARY
THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY CKB AND EKN.  VSBY MAY DROP BRIEFLY LOWER
THAN FORECAST IN CONVECTION THIS EVENING. LOWER CEILINGS THAN
FORECAST MAY ALSO FORM 06Z TO 12Z THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
CONVECTION IN THE MUGGY LATE NIGHT AIR.

.AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...TRM




000
FXUS61 KRLX 271137
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
737 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING. ANOTHER SKIRTS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. A
FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AXIS RIDING UP E SIDE OF MAIN TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE MIDWEST...LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...TAKING BAND OF SHOWERS WITH IT. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAVE
BEHIND SOME MORNING MIST AND STRATOCU THAT WILL THEN BURN OFF AND
MIX OUT BY LATER THIS MORNING.

MODELS DRY THE COLUMN OUT CONSIDERABLY...ALLOWING FOR SIGNIFICANT
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. NAM CRANKS THE CAPE TO 1500-2000
J/KG IN RESPONSE BY LATE IN THE DAY...AS THE MIDWEST S/W TROUGH
APPROACHES. THIS COULD LEAD TO RATHER STRONG THUNDERSTORMS W OF
THE OHIO RIVER...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR SE OHIO...WHERE THE FLOW IS
STRONGEST. FARTHER E...LIGHTER FLOW AND LITTLE OR NO TRIGGER
SPELLS LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INTO THIS EVENING.

THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS LATE TODAY SHIFTS SLOWLY E/NEWD T AND
WANES TONIGHT AS THE FORCING S/W TROUGH LIFTS NEWD INTO THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.

LIKED HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS GIVEN AMPLE SUNSHINE FOR A
TIME TODAY AND ALSO STAYED ON HIGH SIDE FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE HOT...HUMID...AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE PERIOD. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY...BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY
FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRIMARILY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH ANY RIPPLE IN THE FLOW WILL
ONLY HELP TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THE
PERIOD APPEARS TO BE LOW...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL CONTINUE. HEIGHTS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY BUILD THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. MAX
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S FOR
MOST OF THE AREA...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 90S IN A FEW SPOTS
BY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING
TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER
AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
N-S ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING SLOWLY EWD WITH THE
INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVING N THROUGH NE WV...BRINGING MVFR TO BRIEF
IFR CONDITIONS WITH IT FIRST THING THIS MORNING. PATCHY MVFR
STRATOCU WILL LIFT AND BREAK UP TOWARD MIDDAY TODAY.

THE WARM AND HUMID PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECTING A
VFR AFTERNOON WITH A RELATIVE DEARTH OF ACTIVITY ON RADAR. THE
NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
BEGINNING IN THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...AND AGAIN WORKING SLOWLY
EWD.

SFC FLOW WILL CONTINUE LIGHT S TO SW BY DAY AND S TO SE BY NT
WHILE LIGHT TO MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES.FORECAST
CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND IMPROVEMENT OF MVFR / IFR MAY VARY
THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY CKB AND EKN.  VSBY MAY DROP BRIEFLY LOWER
THAN FORECAST IN CONVECTION THIS EVENING. LOWER CEILINGS THAN
FORECAST MAY ALSO FORM 06Z TO 12Z THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
CONVECTION IN THE MUGGY LATE NIGHT AIR.

.AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...TRM




000
FXUS61 KRLX 270749
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
349 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING. ANOTHER SKIRTS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. A
FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AXIS RIDING UP E SIDE OF MAIN TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE MIDWEST...LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...TAKING BAND OF SHOWERS WITH IT. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAVE
BEHIND SOME MORNING MIST AND STRATOCU THAT WILL THEN BURN OFF AND
MIX OUT BY LATER THIS MORNING.

MODELS DRY THE COLUMN OUT CONSIDERABLY...ALLOWING FOR SIGNIFICANT
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. NAM CRANKS THE CAPE TO 1500-2000
J/KG IN RESPONSE BY LATE IN THE DAY...AS THE MIDWEST S/W TROUGH
APPROACHES. THIS COULD LEAD TO RATHER STRONG THUNDERSTORMS W OF
THE OHIO RIVER...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR SE OHIO...WHERE THE FLOW IS
STRONGEST. FARTHER E...LIGHTER FLOW AND LITTLE OR NO TRIGGER
SPELLS LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INTO THIS EVENING.

THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS LATE TODAY SHIFTS SLOWLY E/NEWD T AND
WANES TONIGHT AS THE FORCING S/W TROUGH LIFTS NEWD INTO THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.

LIKED HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS GIVEN AMPLE SUNSHINE FOR A
TIME TODAY AND ALSO STAYED ON HIGH SIDE FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE HOT...HUMID...AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE PERIOD. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY...BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY
FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRIMARILY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH ANY RIPPLE IN THE FLOW WILL
ONLY HELP TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THE
PERIOD APPEARS TO BE LOW...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL CONTINUE. HEIGHTS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY BUILD THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. MAX
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S FOR
MOST OF THE AREA...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 90S IN A FEW SPOTS
BY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING
TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER
AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
N-S ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING SLOWLY EWD WITH THE
INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVING NWD OVERNIGHT...BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH IT. THE THUNDER HAD ALL BUT WANED...BUT A HEAVIER DOWNPOUR
COULD STILL PRODUCE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. POST RAIN FOG OR MIST IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING. MVFR STRATOCU IS ALSO LIKELY
TO FORM NEAR DAYBREAK WED AND THEN LIFT AND BREAK UP TOWARD MIDDAY
WED.

THE WARM AND HUMID PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH WED AND WED NT.
EXPECTING A VFR AFTERNOON WITH A RELATIVE DEARTH OF ACTIVITY ON
RADAR. THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
WED EVENING BEGINNING IN THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...AND AGAIN
WORKING SLOWLY EWD.

SFC FLOW WILL CONTINUE LIGHT S TO SE BY NT AND S TO SW BY DAY
WHILE LIGHT TO MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. THE LIGHTER FLOW
ALOFT COMPARED WITH TUE SPELLS SLIGHTLY LESS STRENGTH TO THE
THUNDERSTORMS WED EVENING COMPARED WITH TUE EVENING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY MAY DROP BRIEFLY LOWER THAN FORECAST IN
CONVECTION. LOWER CEILINGS THAN FORECAST MAY ALSO FORM 06Z TO 12Z
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION IN THE MUGGY LATE NIGHT
AIR.

.AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...TRM




000
FXUS61 KRLX 270749
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
349 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING. ANOTHER SKIRTS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. A
FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AXIS RIDING UP E SIDE OF MAIN TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE MIDWEST...LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...TAKING BAND OF SHOWERS WITH IT. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAVE
BEHIND SOME MORNING MIST AND STRATOCU THAT WILL THEN BURN OFF AND
MIX OUT BY LATER THIS MORNING.

MODELS DRY THE COLUMN OUT CONSIDERABLY...ALLOWING FOR SIGNIFICANT
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. NAM CRANKS THE CAPE TO 1500-2000
J/KG IN RESPONSE BY LATE IN THE DAY...AS THE MIDWEST S/W TROUGH
APPROACHES. THIS COULD LEAD TO RATHER STRONG THUNDERSTORMS W OF
THE OHIO RIVER...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR SE OHIO...WHERE THE FLOW IS
STRONGEST. FARTHER E...LIGHTER FLOW AND LITTLE OR NO TRIGGER
SPELLS LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INTO THIS EVENING.

THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS LATE TODAY SHIFTS SLOWLY E/NEWD T AND
WANES TONIGHT AS THE FORCING S/W TROUGH LIFTS NEWD INTO THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.

LIKED HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS GIVEN AMPLE SUNSHINE FOR A
TIME TODAY AND ALSO STAYED ON HIGH SIDE FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE HOT...HUMID...AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE PERIOD. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY...BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY
FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRIMARILY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH ANY RIPPLE IN THE FLOW WILL
ONLY HELP TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THE
PERIOD APPEARS TO BE LOW...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL CONTINUE. HEIGHTS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY BUILD THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. MAX
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S FOR
MOST OF THE AREA...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 90S IN A FEW SPOTS
BY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING
TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER
AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
N-S ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING SLOWLY EWD WITH THE
INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVING NWD OVERNIGHT...BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH IT. THE THUNDER HAD ALL BUT WANED...BUT A HEAVIER DOWNPOUR
COULD STILL PRODUCE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. POST RAIN FOG OR MIST IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING. MVFR STRATOCU IS ALSO LIKELY
TO FORM NEAR DAYBREAK WED AND THEN LIFT AND BREAK UP TOWARD MIDDAY
WED.

THE WARM AND HUMID PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH WED AND WED NT.
EXPECTING A VFR AFTERNOON WITH A RELATIVE DEARTH OF ACTIVITY ON
RADAR. THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
WED EVENING BEGINNING IN THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...AND AGAIN
WORKING SLOWLY EWD.

SFC FLOW WILL CONTINUE LIGHT S TO SE BY NT AND S TO SW BY DAY
WHILE LIGHT TO MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. THE LIGHTER FLOW
ALOFT COMPARED WITH TUE SPELLS SLIGHTLY LESS STRENGTH TO THE
THUNDERSTORMS WED EVENING COMPARED WITH TUE EVENING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY MAY DROP BRIEFLY LOWER THAN FORECAST IN
CONVECTION. LOWER CEILINGS THAN FORECAST MAY ALSO FORM 06Z TO 12Z
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION IN THE MUGGY LATE NIGHT
AIR.

.AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...TRM




000
FXUS61 KRLX 270749
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
349 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING. ANOTHER SKIRTS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. A
FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AXIS RIDING UP E SIDE OF MAIN TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE MIDWEST...LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...TAKING BAND OF SHOWERS WITH IT. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAVE
BEHIND SOME MORNING MIST AND STRATOCU THAT WILL THEN BURN OFF AND
MIX OUT BY LATER THIS MORNING.

MODELS DRY THE COLUMN OUT CONSIDERABLY...ALLOWING FOR SIGNIFICANT
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. NAM CRANKS THE CAPE TO 1500-2000
J/KG IN RESPONSE BY LATE IN THE DAY...AS THE MIDWEST S/W TROUGH
APPROACHES. THIS COULD LEAD TO RATHER STRONG THUNDERSTORMS W OF
THE OHIO RIVER...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR SE OHIO...WHERE THE FLOW IS
STRONGEST. FARTHER E...LIGHTER FLOW AND LITTLE OR NO TRIGGER
SPELLS LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INTO THIS EVENING.

THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS LATE TODAY SHIFTS SLOWLY E/NEWD T AND
WANES TONIGHT AS THE FORCING S/W TROUGH LIFTS NEWD INTO THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.

LIKED HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS GIVEN AMPLE SUNSHINE FOR A
TIME TODAY AND ALSO STAYED ON HIGH SIDE FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE HOT...HUMID...AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE PERIOD. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY...BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY
FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRIMARILY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH ANY RIPPLE IN THE FLOW WILL
ONLY HELP TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THE
PERIOD APPEARS TO BE LOW...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL CONTINUE. HEIGHTS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY BUILD THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. MAX
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S FOR
MOST OF THE AREA...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 90S IN A FEW SPOTS
BY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING
TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER
AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
N-S ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING SLOWLY EWD WITH THE
INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVING NWD OVERNIGHT...BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH IT. THE THUNDER HAD ALL BUT WANED...BUT A HEAVIER DOWNPOUR
COULD STILL PRODUCE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. POST RAIN FOG OR MIST IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING. MVFR STRATOCU IS ALSO LIKELY
TO FORM NEAR DAYBREAK WED AND THEN LIFT AND BREAK UP TOWARD MIDDAY
WED.

THE WARM AND HUMID PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH WED AND WED NT.
EXPECTING A VFR AFTERNOON WITH A RELATIVE DEARTH OF ACTIVITY ON
RADAR. THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
WED EVENING BEGINNING IN THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...AND AGAIN
WORKING SLOWLY EWD.

SFC FLOW WILL CONTINUE LIGHT S TO SE BY NT AND S TO SW BY DAY
WHILE LIGHT TO MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. THE LIGHTER FLOW
ALOFT COMPARED WITH TUE SPELLS SLIGHTLY LESS STRENGTH TO THE
THUNDERSTORMS WED EVENING COMPARED WITH TUE EVENING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY MAY DROP BRIEFLY LOWER THAN FORECAST IN
CONVECTION. LOWER CEILINGS THAN FORECAST MAY ALSO FORM 06Z TO 12Z
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION IN THE MUGGY LATE NIGHT
AIR.

.AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...TRM




000
FXUS61 KRLX 270749
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
349 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING. ANOTHER SKIRTS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. A
FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AXIS RIDING UP E SIDE OF MAIN TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE MIDWEST...LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...TAKING BAND OF SHOWERS WITH IT. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAVE
BEHIND SOME MORNING MIST AND STRATOCU THAT WILL THEN BURN OFF AND
MIX OUT BY LATER THIS MORNING.

MODELS DRY THE COLUMN OUT CONSIDERABLY...ALLOWING FOR SIGNIFICANT
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. NAM CRANKS THE CAPE TO 1500-2000
J/KG IN RESPONSE BY LATE IN THE DAY...AS THE MIDWEST S/W TROUGH
APPROACHES. THIS COULD LEAD TO RATHER STRONG THUNDERSTORMS W OF
THE OHIO RIVER...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR SE OHIO...WHERE THE FLOW IS
STRONGEST. FARTHER E...LIGHTER FLOW AND LITTLE OR NO TRIGGER
SPELLS LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INTO THIS EVENING.

THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS LATE TODAY SHIFTS SLOWLY E/NEWD T AND
WANES TONIGHT AS THE FORCING S/W TROUGH LIFTS NEWD INTO THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.

LIKED HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS GIVEN AMPLE SUNSHINE FOR A
TIME TODAY AND ALSO STAYED ON HIGH SIDE FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE HOT...HUMID...AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE PERIOD. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY...BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY
FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRIMARILY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH ANY RIPPLE IN THE FLOW WILL
ONLY HELP TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THE
PERIOD APPEARS TO BE LOW...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL CONTINUE. HEIGHTS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY BUILD THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. MAX
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S FOR
MOST OF THE AREA...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 90S IN A FEW SPOTS
BY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING
TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER
AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
N-S ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING SLOWLY EWD WITH THE
INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVING NWD OVERNIGHT...BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH IT. THE THUNDER HAD ALL BUT WANED...BUT A HEAVIER DOWNPOUR
COULD STILL PRODUCE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. POST RAIN FOG OR MIST IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING. MVFR STRATOCU IS ALSO LIKELY
TO FORM NEAR DAYBREAK WED AND THEN LIFT AND BREAK UP TOWARD MIDDAY
WED.

THE WARM AND HUMID PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH WED AND WED NT.
EXPECTING A VFR AFTERNOON WITH A RELATIVE DEARTH OF ACTIVITY ON
RADAR. THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
WED EVENING BEGINNING IN THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...AND AGAIN
WORKING SLOWLY EWD.

SFC FLOW WILL CONTINUE LIGHT S TO SE BY NT AND S TO SW BY DAY
WHILE LIGHT TO MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. THE LIGHTER FLOW
ALOFT COMPARED WITH TUE SPELLS SLIGHTLY LESS STRENGTH TO THE
THUNDERSTORMS WED EVENING COMPARED WITH TUE EVENING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY MAY DROP BRIEFLY LOWER THAN FORECAST IN
CONVECTION. LOWER CEILINGS THAN FORECAST MAY ALSO FORM 06Z TO 12Z
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION IN THE MUGGY LATE NIGHT
AIR.

.AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...TRM




000
FXUS61 KRLX 270749
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
349 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING. ANOTHER SKIRTS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. A
FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AXIS RIDING UP E SIDE OF MAIN TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE MIDWEST...LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...TAKING BAND OF SHOWERS WITH IT. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAVE
BEHIND SOME MORNING MIST AND STRATOCU THAT WILL THEN BURN OFF AND
MIX OUT BY LATER THIS MORNING.

MODELS DRY THE COLUMN OUT CONSIDERABLY...ALLOWING FOR SIGNIFICANT
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. NAM CRANKS THE CAPE TO 1500-2000
J/KG IN RESPONSE BY LATE IN THE DAY...AS THE MIDWEST S/W TROUGH
APPROACHES. THIS COULD LEAD TO RATHER STRONG THUNDERSTORMS W OF
THE OHIO RIVER...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR SE OHIO...WHERE THE FLOW IS
STRONGEST. FARTHER E...LIGHTER FLOW AND LITTLE OR NO TRIGGER
SPELLS LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INTO THIS EVENING.

THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS LATE TODAY SHIFTS SLOWLY E/NEWD T AND
WANES TONIGHT AS THE FORCING S/W TROUGH LIFTS NEWD INTO THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.

LIKED HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS GIVEN AMPLE SUNSHINE FOR A
TIME TODAY AND ALSO STAYED ON HIGH SIDE FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE HOT...HUMID...AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE PERIOD. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY...BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY
FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRIMARILY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH ANY RIPPLE IN THE FLOW WILL
ONLY HELP TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THE
PERIOD APPEARS TO BE LOW...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL CONTINUE. HEIGHTS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY BUILD THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. MAX
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S FOR
MOST OF THE AREA...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 90S IN A FEW SPOTS
BY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING
TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER
AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
N-S ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING SLOWLY EWD WITH THE
INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVING NWD OVERNIGHT...BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH IT. THE THUNDER HAD ALL BUT WANED...BUT A HEAVIER DOWNPOUR
COULD STILL PRODUCE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. POST RAIN FOG OR MIST IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING. MVFR STRATOCU IS ALSO LIKELY
TO FORM NEAR DAYBREAK WED AND THEN LIFT AND BREAK UP TOWARD MIDDAY
WED.

THE WARM AND HUMID PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH WED AND WED NT.
EXPECTING A VFR AFTERNOON WITH A RELATIVE DEARTH OF ACTIVITY ON
RADAR. THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
WED EVENING BEGINNING IN THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...AND AGAIN
WORKING SLOWLY EWD.

SFC FLOW WILL CONTINUE LIGHT S TO SE BY NT AND S TO SW BY DAY
WHILE LIGHT TO MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. THE LIGHTER FLOW
ALOFT COMPARED WITH TUE SPELLS SLIGHTLY LESS STRENGTH TO THE
THUNDERSTORMS WED EVENING COMPARED WITH TUE EVENING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY MAY DROP BRIEFLY LOWER THAN FORECAST IN
CONVECTION. LOWER CEILINGS THAN FORECAST MAY ALSO FORM 06Z TO 12Z
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION IN THE MUGGY LATE NIGHT
AIR.

.AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...TRM




000
FXUS61 KRLX 270749
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
349 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING. ANOTHER SKIRTS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. A
FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AXIS RIDING UP E SIDE OF MAIN TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE MIDWEST...LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...TAKING BAND OF SHOWERS WITH IT. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAVE
BEHIND SOME MORNING MIST AND STRATOCU THAT WILL THEN BURN OFF AND
MIX OUT BY LATER THIS MORNING.

MODELS DRY THE COLUMN OUT CONSIDERABLY...ALLOWING FOR SIGNIFICANT
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. NAM CRANKS THE CAPE TO 1500-2000
J/KG IN RESPONSE BY LATE IN THE DAY...AS THE MIDWEST S/W TROUGH
APPROACHES. THIS COULD LEAD TO RATHER STRONG THUNDERSTORMS W OF
THE OHIO RIVER...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR SE OHIO...WHERE THE FLOW IS
STRONGEST. FARTHER E...LIGHTER FLOW AND LITTLE OR NO TRIGGER
SPELLS LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INTO THIS EVENING.

THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS LATE TODAY SHIFTS SLOWLY E/NEWD T AND
WANES TONIGHT AS THE FORCING S/W TROUGH LIFTS NEWD INTO THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.

LIKED HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS GIVEN AMPLE SUNSHINE FOR A
TIME TODAY AND ALSO STAYED ON HIGH SIDE FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE HOT...HUMID...AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE PERIOD. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY...BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY
FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRIMARILY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH ANY RIPPLE IN THE FLOW WILL
ONLY HELP TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THE
PERIOD APPEARS TO BE LOW...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL CONTINUE. HEIGHTS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY BUILD THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. MAX
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S FOR
MOST OF THE AREA...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 90S IN A FEW SPOTS
BY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING
TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER
AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
N-S ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING SLOWLY EWD WITH THE
INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVING NWD OVERNIGHT...BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH IT. THE THUNDER HAD ALL BUT WANED...BUT A HEAVIER DOWNPOUR
COULD STILL PRODUCE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. POST RAIN FOG OR MIST IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING. MVFR STRATOCU IS ALSO LIKELY
TO FORM NEAR DAYBREAK WED AND THEN LIFT AND BREAK UP TOWARD MIDDAY
WED.

THE WARM AND HUMID PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH WED AND WED NT.
EXPECTING A VFR AFTERNOON WITH A RELATIVE DEARTH OF ACTIVITY ON
RADAR. THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
WED EVENING BEGINNING IN THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...AND AGAIN
WORKING SLOWLY EWD.

SFC FLOW WILL CONTINUE LIGHT S TO SE BY NT AND S TO SW BY DAY
WHILE LIGHT TO MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. THE LIGHTER FLOW
ALOFT COMPARED WITH TUE SPELLS SLIGHTLY LESS STRENGTH TO THE
THUNDERSTORMS WED EVENING COMPARED WITH TUE EVENING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY MAY DROP BRIEFLY LOWER THAN FORECAST IN
CONVECTION. LOWER CEILINGS THAN FORECAST MAY ALSO FORM 06Z TO 12Z
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION IN THE MUGGY LATE NIGHT
AIR.

.AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...TRM



000
FXUS61 KRLX 270739
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
339 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING. ANOTHER SKIRTS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. A
FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AXIS RIDING UP E SIDE OF MAIN TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE MIDWEST...LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...TAKING BAND OF SHOWERS WITH IT. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAVE
BEHIND SOME MORNING MIST AND STRATOCU THAT WILL THEN BURN OFF AND
MIX OUT BY LATER THIS MORNING.

MODELS DRY THE COLUMN OUT CONSIDERABLY...ALLOWING FOR SIGNIFICANT
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. NAM CRANKS THE CAPE TO 1500-2000
J/KG IN RESPONSE BY LATE IN THE DAY...AS THE MIDWEST S/W TROUGH
APPROACHES. THIS COULD LEAD TO RATHER STRONG THUNDERSTORMS W OF
THE OHIO RIVER...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR SE OHIO...WHERE THE FLOW IS
STRONGEST. FARTHER E...LIGHTER FLOW AND LITTLE OR NO TRIGGER
SPELLS LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INTO THIS EVENING.

THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS LATE TODAY SHIFTS SLOWLY E/NEWD T AND
WANES TONIGHT AS THE FORCING S/W TROUGH LIFTS NEWD INTO THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.

LIKED HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS GIVEN AMPLE SUNSHINE FOR A
TIME TODAY AND ALSO STAYED ON HIGH SIDE FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
APPEARS TWO UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO TRACK...ONE TUE NIGHT AND THE
LONG ABOUT WED NIGHT. HAVE SOME HIGHER POPS FOR THESE AND ROLLING
WITH COVERAGE IN THE WX GRIDS. THERE MAY BE A REPRIEVE THU AND
POSSIBLY FRI AS THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY FLEXES ITS MUSCLE BACK
INTO THE REGION. WARM AND MUGGY THE BEST DESCRIPTOR FOR
TEMPS/DEWPTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING
TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER
AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
N-S ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING SLOWLY EWD WITH THE
INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVING NWD OVERNIGHT...BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH IT. THE THUNDER HAD ALL BUT WANED...BUT A HEAVIER DOWNPOUR
COULD STILL PRODUCE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. POST RAIN FOG OR MIST IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING. MVFR STRATOCU IS ALSO LIKELY
TO FORM NEAR DAYBREAK WED AND THEN LIFT AND BREAK UP TOWARD MIDDAY
WED.

THE WARM AND HUMID PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH WED AND WED NT.
EXPECTING A VFR AFTERNOON WITH A RELATIVE DEARTH OF ACTIVITY ON
RADAR. THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
WED EVENING BEGINNING IN THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...AND AGAIN
WORKING SLOWLY EWD.

SFC FLOW WILL CONTINUE LIGHT S TO SE BY NT AND S TO SW BY DAY
WHILE LIGHT TO MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. THE LIGHTER FLOW
ALOFT COMPARED WITH TUE SPELLS SLIGHTLY LESS STRENGTH TO THE
THUNDERSTORMS WED EVENING COMPARED WITH TUE EVENING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY MAY DROP BRIEFLY LOWER THAN FORECAST IN
CONVECTION. LOWER CEILINGS THAN FORECAST MAY ALSO FORM 06Z TO 12Z
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION IN THE MUGGY LATE NIGHT
AIR.

.AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...TRM




000
FXUS61 KRLX 270615
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
215 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AREA REMAINS IN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF WARM AND HUMID AIR.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
200 AM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AS S/W TROUGH BRINGS A BAND
OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCN...
IN THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE...WAS A FEW HOURS QUICKER IN
INCREASING POPS W TO E OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...BIGGEST CHANGE TO OUR
HOURLY FORECAST GRIDS WAS TO DECREASE POPS IN WAKE OF THE MAIN
LINE OF CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST...REACHING
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THINK WE CAN BE DRY IN WESTERN
COUNTIES DURING THE 06Z TO 12Z TIME FRAME. IN THE MUGGY
AIR...DESPITE SOME LIGHT SOUTH WIND...THERE COULD BE RAIN INDUCED
LOW SCUD CLOUDS THAT FORM...AND CAUSE PATCHES OF FOG
OVERNIGHT...BUT LEFT THAT MAINLY FOR THE AVIATION FORECASTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
APPEARS TWO UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO TRACK...ONE TUE NIGHT AND THE
LONG ABOUT WED NIGHT. HAVE SOME HIGHER POPS FOR THESE AND ROLLING
WITH COVERAGE IN THE WX GRIDS. THERE MAY BE A REPRIEVE THU AND
POSSIBLY FRI AS THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY FLEXES ITS MUSCLE BACK
INTO THE REGION. WARM AND MUGGY THE BEST DESCRIPTOR FOR
TEMPS/DEWPTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING
TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER
AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
N-S ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING SLOWLY EWD WITH THE
INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVING NWD OVERNIGHT...BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH IT. THE THUNDER HAD ALL BUT WANED...BUT A HEAVIER DOWNPOUR
COULD STILL PRODUCE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. POST RAIN FOG OR MIST IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING. MVFR STRATOCU IS ALSO LIKELY
TO FORM NEAR DAYBREAK WED AND THEN LIFT AND BREAK UP TOWARD MIDDAY
WED.

THE WARM AND HUMID PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH WED AND WED NT.
EXPECTING A VFR AFTERNOON WITH A RELATIVE DEARTH OF ACTIVITY ONRADAR.
THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED WED
EVENING BEGINNING IN THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...AND AGAIN WORKING
SLOWLY EWD.

SFC FLOW WILL CONTINUE LIGHT S TO SE BY NT AND S TO SW BY DAY
WHILE LIGHT TO MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. THE LIGHTER FLOW
ALOFT COMPARED WITH TUE SPELLS SLIGHTLY LESS STRENGTH TO THE
THUNDERSTORMS WED EVENING COMPARED WITH TUE EVENING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY MAY DROP BRIEFLY LOWER THAN FORECAST IN
CONVECTION. LOWER CEILINGS THAN FORECAST MAY ALSO FORM 06Z TO 12Z
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION IN THE MUGGY LATE NIGHT
AIR.

.AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30/TRM
NEAR TERM...KTB/TRM
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...TRM




000
FXUS61 KRLX 270615
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
215 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AREA REMAINS IN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF WARM AND HUMID AIR.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
200 AM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AS S/W TROUGH BRINGS A BAND
OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCN...
IN THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE...WAS A FEW HOURS QUICKER IN
INCREASING POPS W TO E OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...BIGGEST CHANGE TO OUR
HOURLY FORECAST GRIDS WAS TO DECREASE POPS IN WAKE OF THE MAIN
LINE OF CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST...REACHING
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THINK WE CAN BE DRY IN WESTERN
COUNTIES DURING THE 06Z TO 12Z TIME FRAME. IN THE MUGGY
AIR...DESPITE SOME LIGHT SOUTH WIND...THERE COULD BE RAIN INDUCED
LOW SCUD CLOUDS THAT FORM...AND CAUSE PATCHES OF FOG
OVERNIGHT...BUT LEFT THAT MAINLY FOR THE AVIATION FORECASTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
APPEARS TWO UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO TRACK...ONE TUE NIGHT AND THE
LONG ABOUT WED NIGHT. HAVE SOME HIGHER POPS FOR THESE AND ROLLING
WITH COVERAGE IN THE WX GRIDS. THERE MAY BE A REPRIEVE THU AND
POSSIBLY FRI AS THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY FLEXES ITS MUSCLE BACK
INTO THE REGION. WARM AND MUGGY THE BEST DESCRIPTOR FOR
TEMPS/DEWPTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING
TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER
AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
N-S ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING SLOWLY EWD WITH THE
INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVING NWD OVERNIGHT...BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH IT. THE THUNDER HAD ALL BUT WANED...BUT A HEAVIER DOWNPOUR
COULD STILL PRODUCE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. POST RAIN FOG OR MIST IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING. MVFR STRATOCU IS ALSO LIKELY
TO FORM NEAR DAYBREAK WED AND THEN LIFT AND BREAK UP TOWARD MIDDAY
WED.

THE WARM AND HUMID PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH WED AND WED NT.
EXPECTING A VFR AFTERNOON WITH A RELATIVE DEARTH OF ACTIVITY ONRADAR.
THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED WED
EVENING BEGINNING IN THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...AND AGAIN WORKING
SLOWLY EWD.

SFC FLOW WILL CONTINUE LIGHT S TO SE BY NT AND S TO SW BY DAY
WHILE LIGHT TO MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. THE LIGHTER FLOW
ALOFT COMPARED WITH TUE SPELLS SLIGHTLY LESS STRENGTH TO THE
THUNDERSTORMS WED EVENING COMPARED WITH TUE EVENING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY MAY DROP BRIEFLY LOWER THAN FORECAST IN
CONVECTION. LOWER CEILINGS THAN FORECAST MAY ALSO FORM 06Z TO 12Z
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION IN THE MUGGY LATE NIGHT
AIR.

.AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30/TRM
NEAR TERM...KTB/TRM
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...TRM



000
FXUS61 KRLX 262348
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
745 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AREA REMAINS IN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF WARM AND HUMID AIR.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY.
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE...WAS A FEW HOURS QUICKER IN INCREASING POPS W TO E
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...BIGGEST CHANGE TO OUR HOURLY FORECAST GIRDS WAS TO
DECREASE POPS IN WAKE OF THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT FROM WEST
TO EAST...REACHING MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THINK WE CAN BE DRY IN WESTERN
COUNTIES DURING THE 06Z TO 12Z TIME FRAME. IN THE MUGGY AIR...DESPITE SOME
LIGHT SOUTH WIND...THERE COULD BE RAIN INDUCED LOW SCUD CLOUDS THAT FORM...AND
CAUSE PATCHES OF FOG OVERNIGHT...BUT LEFT THAT MAINLY FOR THE AVIATION FORECASTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
APPEARS TWO UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO TRACK...ONE TUE NIGHT AND THE
LONG ABOUT WED NIGHT. HAVE SOME HIGHER POPS FOR THESE AND ROLLING
WITH COVERAGE IN THE WX GRIDS. THERE MAY BE A REPRIEVE THU AND
POSSIBLY FRI AS THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY FLEXES ITS MUSCLE BACK
INTO THE REGION. WARM AND MUGGY THE BEST DESCRIPTOR FOR
TEMPS/DEWPTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING
TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER
AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOWERED CONFIDENCE TO LOW...BECAUSE OF CONCERNS FOR RAIN INDUCED FOG OR LOW
SCUD CLOUDS IN THE HUMID AIR...IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION.

HAVE CEILINGS MOSTLY 2 TO 3 THSD FT AND VSBY BRIEFLY BLO 3 MILES IN THE
CONVECTION...REACHING MOUNTAIN COUNTIES MOSTLY 03Z TO 07Z.

IN WAKE OF CONVECTION FORMING CEILINGS AROUND 1 TO 2 THSD FT BKN 06Z TO 12Z
AND VSBY 3 TO 5 MILES IN LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS OVER WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA.

SOME RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY OVER THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES...
OTHERWISE TRIED TO HAVE WIDESPREAD CEILINGS OF 1 TO 3 THSD FT BKN LIFT
TO 2 TO 4 THSD FT AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY.

ANY CONVECTION THAT REFORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AFTER 18Z SHOULD BE MOSTLY
CONFINED TO OHIO.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY MAY DROP BRIEFLY LOWER THAN FORECAST IN CONVECTION.
LOWER CEILINGS THAN FORECAST MAY ALSO FORM 06Z TO 12Z WEDNESDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE CONVECTION IN THE MUGGY LATE NIGHT AIR.

.AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KTB




000
FXUS61 KRLX 262348
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
745 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AREA REMAINS IN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF WARM AND HUMID AIR.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY.
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE...WAS A FEW HOURS QUICKER IN INCREASING POPS W TO E
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...BIGGEST CHANGE TO OUR HOURLY FORECAST GIRDS WAS TO
DECREASE POPS IN WAKE OF THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT FROM WEST
TO EAST...REACHING MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THINK WE CAN BE DRY IN WESTERN
COUNTIES DURING THE 06Z TO 12Z TIME FRAME. IN THE MUGGY AIR...DESPITE SOME
LIGHT SOUTH WIND...THERE COULD BE RAIN INDUCED LOW SCUD CLOUDS THAT FORM...AND
CAUSE PATCHES OF FOG OVERNIGHT...BUT LEFT THAT MAINLY FOR THE AVIATION FORECASTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
APPEARS TWO UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO TRACK...ONE TUE NIGHT AND THE
LONG ABOUT WED NIGHT. HAVE SOME HIGHER POPS FOR THESE AND ROLLING
WITH COVERAGE IN THE WX GRIDS. THERE MAY BE A REPRIEVE THU AND
POSSIBLY FRI AS THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY FLEXES ITS MUSCLE BACK
INTO THE REGION. WARM AND MUGGY THE BEST DESCRIPTOR FOR
TEMPS/DEWPTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING
TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER
AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOWERED CONFIDENCE TO LOW...BECAUSE OF CONCERNS FOR RAIN INDUCED FOG OR LOW
SCUD CLOUDS IN THE HUMID AIR...IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION.

HAVE CEILINGS MOSTLY 2 TO 3 THSD FT AND VSBY BRIEFLY BLO 3 MILES IN THE
CONVECTION...REACHING MOUNTAIN COUNTIES MOSTLY 03Z TO 07Z.

IN WAKE OF CONVECTION FORMING CEILINGS AROUND 1 TO 2 THSD FT BKN 06Z TO 12Z
AND VSBY 3 TO 5 MILES IN LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS OVER WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA.

SOME RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY OVER THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES...
OTHERWISE TRIED TO HAVE WIDESPREAD CEILINGS OF 1 TO 3 THSD FT BKN LIFT
TO 2 TO 4 THSD FT AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY.

ANY CONVECTION THAT REFORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AFTER 18Z SHOULD BE MOSTLY
CONFINED TO OHIO.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY MAY DROP BRIEFLY LOWER THAN FORECAST IN CONVECTION.
LOWER CEILINGS THAN FORECAST MAY ALSO FORM 06Z TO 12Z WEDNESDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE CONVECTION IN THE MUGGY LATE NIGHT AIR.

.AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KTB



000
FXUS61 KRLX 262348
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
745 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AREA REMAINS IN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF WARM AND HUMID AIR.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY.
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE...WAS A FEW HOURS QUICKER IN INCREASING POPS W TO E
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...BIGGEST CHANGE TO OUR HOURLY FORECAST GIRDS WAS TO
DECREASE POPS IN WAKE OF THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT FROM WEST
TO EAST...REACHING MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THINK WE CAN BE DRY IN WESTERN
COUNTIES DURING THE 06Z TO 12Z TIME FRAME. IN THE MUGGY AIR...DESPITE SOME
LIGHT SOUTH WIND...THERE COULD BE RAIN INDUCED LOW SCUD CLOUDS THAT FORM...AND
CAUSE PATCHES OF FOG OVERNIGHT...BUT LEFT THAT MAINLY FOR THE AVIATION FORECASTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
APPEARS TWO UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO TRACK...ONE TUE NIGHT AND THE
LONG ABOUT WED NIGHT. HAVE SOME HIGHER POPS FOR THESE AND ROLLING
WITH COVERAGE IN THE WX GRIDS. THERE MAY BE A REPRIEVE THU AND
POSSIBLY FRI AS THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY FLEXES ITS MUSCLE BACK
INTO THE REGION. WARM AND MUGGY THE BEST DESCRIPTOR FOR
TEMPS/DEWPTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING
TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER
AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOWERED CONFIDENCE TO LOW...BECAUSE OF CONCERNS FOR RAIN INDUCED FOG OR LOW
SCUD CLOUDS IN THE HUMID AIR...IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION.

HAVE CEILINGS MOSTLY 2 TO 3 THSD FT AND VSBY BRIEFLY BLO 3 MILES IN THE
CONVECTION...REACHING MOUNTAIN COUNTIES MOSTLY 03Z TO 07Z.

IN WAKE OF CONVECTION FORMING CEILINGS AROUND 1 TO 2 THSD FT BKN 06Z TO 12Z
AND VSBY 3 TO 5 MILES IN LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS OVER WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA.

SOME RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY OVER THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES...
OTHERWISE TRIED TO HAVE WIDESPREAD CEILINGS OF 1 TO 3 THSD FT BKN LIFT
TO 2 TO 4 THSD FT AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY.

ANY CONVECTION THAT REFORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AFTER 18Z SHOULD BE MOSTLY
CONFINED TO OHIO.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY MAY DROP BRIEFLY LOWER THAN FORECAST IN CONVECTION.
LOWER CEILINGS THAN FORECAST MAY ALSO FORM 06Z TO 12Z WEDNESDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE CONVECTION IN THE MUGGY LATE NIGHT AIR.

.AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KTB




000
FXUS61 KRLX 262348
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
745 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AREA REMAINS IN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF WARM AND HUMID AIR.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY.
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE...WAS A FEW HOURS QUICKER IN INCREASING POPS W TO E
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...BIGGEST CHANGE TO OUR HOURLY FORECAST GIRDS WAS TO
DECREASE POPS IN WAKE OF THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT FROM WEST
TO EAST...REACHING MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THINK WE CAN BE DRY IN WESTERN
COUNTIES DURING THE 06Z TO 12Z TIME FRAME. IN THE MUGGY AIR...DESPITE SOME
LIGHT SOUTH WIND...THERE COULD BE RAIN INDUCED LOW SCUD CLOUDS THAT FORM...AND
CAUSE PATCHES OF FOG OVERNIGHT...BUT LEFT THAT MAINLY FOR THE AVIATION FORECASTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
APPEARS TWO UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO TRACK...ONE TUE NIGHT AND THE
LONG ABOUT WED NIGHT. HAVE SOME HIGHER POPS FOR THESE AND ROLLING
WITH COVERAGE IN THE WX GRIDS. THERE MAY BE A REPRIEVE THU AND
POSSIBLY FRI AS THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY FLEXES ITS MUSCLE BACK
INTO THE REGION. WARM AND MUGGY THE BEST DESCRIPTOR FOR
TEMPS/DEWPTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING
TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER
AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOWERED CONFIDENCE TO LOW...BECAUSE OF CONCERNS FOR RAIN INDUCED FOG OR LOW
SCUD CLOUDS IN THE HUMID AIR...IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION.

HAVE CEILINGS MOSTLY 2 TO 3 THSD FT AND VSBY BRIEFLY BLO 3 MILES IN THE
CONVECTION...REACHING MOUNTAIN COUNTIES MOSTLY 03Z TO 07Z.

IN WAKE OF CONVECTION FORMING CEILINGS AROUND 1 TO 2 THSD FT BKN 06Z TO 12Z
AND VSBY 3 TO 5 MILES IN LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS OVER WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA.

SOME RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY OVER THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES...
OTHERWISE TRIED TO HAVE WIDESPREAD CEILINGS OF 1 TO 3 THSD FT BKN LIFT
TO 2 TO 4 THSD FT AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY.

ANY CONVECTION THAT REFORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AFTER 18Z SHOULD BE MOSTLY
CONFINED TO OHIO.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY MAY DROP BRIEFLY LOWER THAN FORECAST IN CONVECTION.
LOWER CEILINGS THAN FORECAST MAY ALSO FORM 06Z TO 12Z WEDNESDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE CONVECTION IN THE MUGGY LATE NIGHT AIR.

.AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KTB



000
FXUS61 KRLX 261907
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
307 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AREA REMAINS IN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF WARM AND HUMID AIR.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY.
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
H500 SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO PASS OVERHEAD OVER A HUMID AND
WARM AIR MASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE INTO THE
MID 60S TONIGHT. SHOWERS OR A STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
UNDER LIMITED INSTABILITY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST SECOND
BATCH OF CONVECTION MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH AROUND 02Z. PERIODS
OF SUNSHINE AFFECTED THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE LIKELY POPS
TO MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. SPC MOVED THE SLIGHT RISK FURTHER WEST AWAY FROM OUR
CWA. SO...REMOVE MENTIONING OF SEVERE THREAT IN HWO.

MODELS SUGGEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THIS
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT THE STORMS WILL BE ON
THE MOVE...LIMITING ANY HIGH WATER TO THE ACUTE POOR DRAINAGE
VARIETY.

PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES NUMBERS LOOK GOOD. TWEAKED NUMBERS AT SOME
PLACES WITH MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
APPEARS TWO UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO TRACK...ONE TUE NIGHT AND THE
LONG ABOUT WED NIGHT. HAVE SOME HIGHER POPS FOR THESE AND ROLLING
WITH COVERAGE IN THE WX GRIDS. THERE MAY BE A REPRIEVE THU AND
POSSIBLY FRI AS THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY FLEXES ITS MUSCLE BACK
INTO THE REGION. WARM AND MUGGY THE BEST DESCRIPTOR FOR
TEMPS/DEWPTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING
TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER
AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGING AN INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON.
A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. POCKETS OF SUNSHINE PROVIDING NEEDED HEATING
FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE
CONVECTION WILL INITIATE ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND SOUTHEAST OH AROUND
21Z...AND A SECOND BATCH AROUND 02Z...TO AFFECT MAINLY THE EASTERN
SITES...PKB...HTS...AND CRW THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTER SUNSET...THE
RAINFALL ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST TOWARDS OUR EASTERN SITES BUT
WINING DOWN PER LOOSING DIURNAL HEATING. INSTABILITY IS NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE SO CODED VCTS AND VCSH THROUGH TONIGHT.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS MEDIUM...WITH UNCERTAINTY ON THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING/MOVING UP FROM THE S
THIS AFTERNOON...PLUS TIMING NEW ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ARRIVING
FROM THE WSW LATE THIS EVENING. SPC MOVED THE SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS FURTHER WEST...AWAY FROM OUR AREA INDICATING THAT
THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS HAS DIMINISHED.

HAVE CIGS MAINLY 4-5 KFT AND PREVAILING VFR VSBY. A SHORT PERIOD
OF MVFR IS STILL POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND
THUNDER IS LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN SITES. THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND
GUSTS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. BRIEF IFR IS
POSSIBLE BENEATH ANY THUNDERSTORM LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT.

LIGHT S TO SW FLOW BECOMES S TO SE BY TONIGHT...WITH MODERATE SW
FLOW ALOFT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION MAY DIFFER FROM
FORECAST. THERE MAY BE IFR IN SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN
INDUCED FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

.AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...IFR MAY LINGER IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES
WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ



000
FXUS61 KRLX 261907
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
307 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AREA REMAINS IN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF WARM AND HUMID AIR.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY.
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
H500 SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO PASS OVERHEAD OVER A HUMID AND
WARM AIR MASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE INTO THE
MID 60S TONIGHT. SHOWERS OR A STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
UNDER LIMITED INSTABILITY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST SECOND
BATCH OF CONVECTION MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH AROUND 02Z. PERIODS
OF SUNSHINE AFFECTED THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE LIKELY POPS
TO MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. SPC MOVED THE SLIGHT RISK FURTHER WEST AWAY FROM OUR
CWA. SO...REMOVE MENTIONING OF SEVERE THREAT IN HWO.

MODELS SUGGEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THIS
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT THE STORMS WILL BE ON
THE MOVE...LIMITING ANY HIGH WATER TO THE ACUTE POOR DRAINAGE
VARIETY.

PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES NUMBERS LOOK GOOD. TWEAKED NUMBERS AT SOME
PLACES WITH MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
APPEARS TWO UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO TRACK...ONE TUE NIGHT AND THE
LONG ABOUT WED NIGHT. HAVE SOME HIGHER POPS FOR THESE AND ROLLING
WITH COVERAGE IN THE WX GRIDS. THERE MAY BE A REPRIEVE THU AND
POSSIBLY FRI AS THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY FLEXES ITS MUSCLE BACK
INTO THE REGION. WARM AND MUGGY THE BEST DESCRIPTOR FOR
TEMPS/DEWPTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING
TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER
AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGING AN INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON.
A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. POCKETS OF SUNSHINE PROVIDING NEEDED HEATING
FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE
CONVECTION WILL INITIATE ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND SOUTHEAST OH AROUND
21Z...AND A SECOND BATCH AROUND 02Z...TO AFFECT MAINLY THE EASTERN
SITES...PKB...HTS...AND CRW THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTER SUNSET...THE
RAINFALL ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST TOWARDS OUR EASTERN SITES BUT
WINING DOWN PER LOOSING DIURNAL HEATING. INSTABILITY IS NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE SO CODED VCTS AND VCSH THROUGH TONIGHT.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS MEDIUM...WITH UNCERTAINTY ON THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING/MOVING UP FROM THE S
THIS AFTERNOON...PLUS TIMING NEW ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ARRIVING
FROM THE WSW LATE THIS EVENING. SPC MOVED THE SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS FURTHER WEST...AWAY FROM OUR AREA INDICATING THAT
THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS HAS DIMINISHED.

HAVE CIGS MAINLY 4-5 KFT AND PREVAILING VFR VSBY. A SHORT PERIOD
OF MVFR IS STILL POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND
THUNDER IS LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN SITES. THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND
GUSTS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. BRIEF IFR IS
POSSIBLE BENEATH ANY THUNDERSTORM LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT.

LIGHT S TO SW FLOW BECOMES S TO SE BY TONIGHT...WITH MODERATE SW
FLOW ALOFT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION MAY DIFFER FROM
FORECAST. THERE MAY BE IFR IN SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN
INDUCED FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

.AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...IFR MAY LINGER IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES
WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ



000
FXUS61 KRLX 261907
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
307 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AREA REMAINS IN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF WARM AND HUMID AIR.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY.
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
H500 SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO PASS OVERHEAD OVER A HUMID AND
WARM AIR MASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE INTO THE
MID 60S TONIGHT. SHOWERS OR A STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
UNDER LIMITED INSTABILITY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST SECOND
BATCH OF CONVECTION MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH AROUND 02Z. PERIODS
OF SUNSHINE AFFECTED THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE LIKELY POPS
TO MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. SPC MOVED THE SLIGHT RISK FURTHER WEST AWAY FROM OUR
CWA. SO...REMOVE MENTIONING OF SEVERE THREAT IN HWO.

MODELS SUGGEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THIS
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT THE STORMS WILL BE ON
THE MOVE...LIMITING ANY HIGH WATER TO THE ACUTE POOR DRAINAGE
VARIETY.

PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES NUMBERS LOOK GOOD. TWEAKED NUMBERS AT SOME
PLACES WITH MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
APPEARS TWO UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO TRACK...ONE TUE NIGHT AND THE
LONG ABOUT WED NIGHT. HAVE SOME HIGHER POPS FOR THESE AND ROLLING
WITH COVERAGE IN THE WX GRIDS. THERE MAY BE A REPRIEVE THU AND
POSSIBLY FRI AS THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY FLEXES ITS MUSCLE BACK
INTO THE REGION. WARM AND MUGGY THE BEST DESCRIPTOR FOR
TEMPS/DEWPTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING
TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER
AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGING AN INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON.
A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. POCKETS OF SUNSHINE PROVIDING NEEDED HEATING
FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE
CONVECTION WILL INITIATE ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND SOUTHEAST OH AROUND
21Z...AND A SECOND BATCH AROUND 02Z...TO AFFECT MAINLY THE EASTERN
SITES...PKB...HTS...AND CRW THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTER SUNSET...THE
RAINFALL ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST TOWARDS OUR EASTERN SITES BUT
WINING DOWN PER LOOSING DIURNAL HEATING. INSTABILITY IS NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE SO CODED VCTS AND VCSH THROUGH TONIGHT.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS MEDIUM...WITH UNCERTAINTY ON THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING/MOVING UP FROM THE S
THIS AFTERNOON...PLUS TIMING NEW ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ARRIVING
FROM THE WSW LATE THIS EVENING. SPC MOVED THE SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS FURTHER WEST...AWAY FROM OUR AREA INDICATING THAT
THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS HAS DIMINISHED.

HAVE CIGS MAINLY 4-5 KFT AND PREVAILING VFR VSBY. A SHORT PERIOD
OF MVFR IS STILL POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND
THUNDER IS LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN SITES. THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND
GUSTS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. BRIEF IFR IS
POSSIBLE BENEATH ANY THUNDERSTORM LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT.

LIGHT S TO SW FLOW BECOMES S TO SE BY TONIGHT...WITH MODERATE SW
FLOW ALOFT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION MAY DIFFER FROM
FORECAST. THERE MAY BE IFR IN SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN
INDUCED FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

.AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...IFR MAY LINGER IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES
WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 261808
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
208 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AREA REMAINS IN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF WARM AND HUMID AIR.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY.
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
H500 SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO PASS OVERHEAD OVER A HUMID AND
WARM AIR MASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE INTO THE
MID 60S TONIGHT. SHOWERS OR A STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
UNDER LIMITED INSTABILITY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST SECOND
BATCH OF CONVECTION MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH AROUND 02Z. PERIODS
OF SUNSHINE AFFECTED THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE LIKELY POPS
TO MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. SPC MOVED THE SLIGHT RISK FURTHER WEST AWAY FROM OUR
CWA. SO...REMOVE MENTIONING OF SEVERE THREAT IN HWO.

MODELS SUGGEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THIS
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT THE STORMS WILL BE ON
THE MOVE...LIMITING ANY HIGH WATER TO THE ACUTE POOR DRAINAGE
VARIETY.

PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES NUMBERS LOOK GOOD. TWEAKED NUMBERS AT SOME
PLACES WITH MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ACTIVE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OFF THE EAST COAST...WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A WARM AND
HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE...AND THIS ALONG WITH SEVERAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY DURING DAYTIME HEATING
HOURS. ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN
THE HUMID ATMOSPHERE. THE AREA IS HIGHLIGHTED IN A MARGINAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST LOCATION FOR SEVERE LOOKS
TO BE TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE CWA...WHERE BETTER
INSTABILITY...SHEAR...AND UPPER DYNAMICS WILL EXIST. WILL HOWEVER
MENTION THE MARGINAL IN THE HWO AS AN ISOLATED STORM GOING SEVERE
IN THE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS CANT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

AN UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CWA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE STALLING OR WASHING OUT ACROSS THE
AREA. THUS...THERE APPEARS TO BE NO RELIEF IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. IN ADDITION...HEIGHTS WILL BUILD
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE...WITH
MAX TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOLLOWED ALONG WITH WPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM. FRONT
CROSSES LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH SOME COOLING AND DRYING NORTH AND
WEST. STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO DROP POPS COMPLETELY OUT OF
THE FORECAST SO LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH FRONT BEING IN THE
AREA. THUS...SUMMER LIKE BROAD BRUSH OF CHC POPS CARRY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGING AN INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON.
A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. POCKETS OF SUNSHINE PROVIDING NEEDED HEATING
FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE
CONVECTION WILL INITIATE ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND SOUTHEAST OH AROUND
21Z...AND A SECOND BATCH AROUND 02Z...TO AFFECT MAINLY THE EASTERN
SITES...PKB...HTS...AND CRW THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTER SUNSET...THE
RAINFALL ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST TOWARDS OUR EASTERN SITES BUT
WINING DOWN PER LOOSING DIURNAL HEATING. INSTABILITY IS NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE SO CODED VCTS AND VCSH THROUGH TONIGHT.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS MEDIUM...WITH UNCERTAINTY ON THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING/MOVING UP FROM THE S
THIS AFTERNOON...PLUS TIMING NEW ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ARRIVING
FROM THE WSW LATE THIS EVENING. SPC MOVED THE SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS FURTHER WEST...AWAY FROM OUR AREA INDICATING THAT
THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS HAS DIMINISHED.

HAVE CIGS MAINLY 4-5 KFT AND PREVAILING VFR VSBY. A SHORT PERIOD
OF MVFR IS STILL POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND
THUNDER IS LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN SITES. THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND
GUSTS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. BRIEF IFR IS
POSSIBLE BENEATH ANY THUNDERSTORM LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT.

LIGHT S TO SW FLOW BECOMES S TO SE BY TONIGHT...WITH MODERATE SW
FLOW ALOFT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION MAY DIFFER FROM
FORECAST. THERE MAY BE IFR IN SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN
INDUCED FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

.AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...IFR MAY LINGER IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES
WED AFTERNOON.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...ARJ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 261808
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
208 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AREA REMAINS IN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF WARM AND HUMID AIR.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY.
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
H500 SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO PASS OVERHEAD OVER A HUMID AND
WARM AIR MASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE INTO THE
MID 60S TONIGHT. SHOWERS OR A STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
UNDER LIMITED INSTABILITY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST SECOND
BATCH OF CONVECTION MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH AROUND 02Z. PERIODS
OF SUNSHINE AFFECTED THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE LIKELY POPS
TO MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. SPC MOVED THE SLIGHT RISK FURTHER WEST AWAY FROM OUR
CWA. SO...REMOVE MENTIONING OF SEVERE THREAT IN HWO.

MODELS SUGGEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THIS
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT THE STORMS WILL BE ON
THE MOVE...LIMITING ANY HIGH WATER TO THE ACUTE POOR DRAINAGE
VARIETY.

PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES NUMBERS LOOK GOOD. TWEAKED NUMBERS AT SOME
PLACES WITH MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ACTIVE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OFF THE EAST COAST...WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A WARM AND
HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE...AND THIS ALONG WITH SEVERAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY DURING DAYTIME HEATING
HOURS. ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN
THE HUMID ATMOSPHERE. THE AREA IS HIGHLIGHTED IN A MARGINAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST LOCATION FOR SEVERE LOOKS
TO BE TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE CWA...WHERE BETTER
INSTABILITY...SHEAR...AND UPPER DYNAMICS WILL EXIST. WILL HOWEVER
MENTION THE MARGINAL IN THE HWO AS AN ISOLATED STORM GOING SEVERE
IN THE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS CANT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

AN UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CWA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE STALLING OR WASHING OUT ACROSS THE
AREA. THUS...THERE APPEARS TO BE NO RELIEF IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. IN ADDITION...HEIGHTS WILL BUILD
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE...WITH
MAX TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOLLOWED ALONG WITH WPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM. FRONT
CROSSES LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH SOME COOLING AND DRYING NORTH AND
WEST. STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO DROP POPS COMPLETELY OUT OF
THE FORECAST SO LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH FRONT BEING IN THE
AREA. THUS...SUMMER LIKE BROAD BRUSH OF CHC POPS CARRY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGING AN INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON.
A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. POCKETS OF SUNSHINE PROVIDING NEEDED HEATING
FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE
CONVECTION WILL INITIATE ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND SOUTHEAST OH AROUND
21Z...AND A SECOND BATCH AROUND 02Z...TO AFFECT MAINLY THE EASTERN
SITES...PKB...HTS...AND CRW THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTER SUNSET...THE
RAINFALL ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST TOWARDS OUR EASTERN SITES BUT
WINING DOWN PER LOOSING DIURNAL HEATING. INSTABILITY IS NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE SO CODED VCTS AND VCSH THROUGH TONIGHT.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS MEDIUM...WITH UNCERTAINTY ON THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING/MOVING UP FROM THE S
THIS AFTERNOON...PLUS TIMING NEW ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ARRIVING
FROM THE WSW LATE THIS EVENING. SPC MOVED THE SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS FURTHER WEST...AWAY FROM OUR AREA INDICATING THAT
THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS HAS DIMINISHED.

HAVE CIGS MAINLY 4-5 KFT AND PREVAILING VFR VSBY. A SHORT PERIOD
OF MVFR IS STILL POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND
THUNDER IS LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN SITES. THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND
GUSTS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. BRIEF IFR IS
POSSIBLE BENEATH ANY THUNDERSTORM LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT.

LIGHT S TO SW FLOW BECOMES S TO SE BY TONIGHT...WITH MODERATE SW
FLOW ALOFT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION MAY DIFFER FROM
FORECAST. THERE MAY BE IFR IN SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN
INDUCED FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

.AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...IFR MAY LINGER IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES
WED AFTERNOON.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...ARJ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 261808
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
208 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AREA REMAINS IN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF WARM AND HUMID AIR.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY.
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
H500 SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO PASS OVERHEAD OVER A HUMID AND
WARM AIR MASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE INTO THE
MID 60S TONIGHT. SHOWERS OR A STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
UNDER LIMITED INSTABILITY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST SECOND
BATCH OF CONVECTION MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH AROUND 02Z. PERIODS
OF SUNSHINE AFFECTED THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE LIKELY POPS
TO MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. SPC MOVED THE SLIGHT RISK FURTHER WEST AWAY FROM OUR
CWA. SO...REMOVE MENTIONING OF SEVERE THREAT IN HWO.

MODELS SUGGEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THIS
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT THE STORMS WILL BE ON
THE MOVE...LIMITING ANY HIGH WATER TO THE ACUTE POOR DRAINAGE
VARIETY.

PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES NUMBERS LOOK GOOD. TWEAKED NUMBERS AT SOME
PLACES WITH MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ACTIVE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OFF THE EAST COAST...WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A WARM AND
HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE...AND THIS ALONG WITH SEVERAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY DURING DAYTIME HEATING
HOURS. ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN
THE HUMID ATMOSPHERE. THE AREA IS HIGHLIGHTED IN A MARGINAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST LOCATION FOR SEVERE LOOKS
TO BE TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE CWA...WHERE BETTER
INSTABILITY...SHEAR...AND UPPER DYNAMICS WILL EXIST. WILL HOWEVER
MENTION THE MARGINAL IN THE HWO AS AN ISOLATED STORM GOING SEVERE
IN THE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS CANT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

AN UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CWA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE STALLING OR WASHING OUT ACROSS THE
AREA. THUS...THERE APPEARS TO BE NO RELIEF IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. IN ADDITION...HEIGHTS WILL BUILD
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE...WITH
MAX TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOLLOWED ALONG WITH WPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM. FRONT
CROSSES LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH SOME COOLING AND DRYING NORTH AND
WEST. STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO DROP POPS COMPLETELY OUT OF
THE FORECAST SO LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH FRONT BEING IN THE
AREA. THUS...SUMMER LIKE BROAD BRUSH OF CHC POPS CARRY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGING AN INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON.
A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. POCKETS OF SUNSHINE PROVIDING NEEDED HEATING
FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE
CONVECTION WILL INITIATE ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND SOUTHEAST OH AROUND
21Z...AND A SECOND BATCH AROUND 02Z...TO AFFECT MAINLY THE EASTERN
SITES...PKB...HTS...AND CRW THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTER SUNSET...THE
RAINFALL ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST TOWARDS OUR EASTERN SITES BUT
WINING DOWN PER LOOSING DIURNAL HEATING. INSTABILITY IS NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE SO CODED VCTS AND VCSH THROUGH TONIGHT.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS MEDIUM...WITH UNCERTAINTY ON THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING/MOVING UP FROM THE S
THIS AFTERNOON...PLUS TIMING NEW ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ARRIVING
FROM THE WSW LATE THIS EVENING. SPC MOVED THE SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS FURTHER WEST...AWAY FROM OUR AREA INDICATING THAT
THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS HAS DIMINISHED.

HAVE CIGS MAINLY 4-5 KFT AND PREVAILING VFR VSBY. A SHORT PERIOD
OF MVFR IS STILL POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND
THUNDER IS LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN SITES. THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND
GUSTS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. BRIEF IFR IS
POSSIBLE BENEATH ANY THUNDERSTORM LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT.

LIGHT S TO SW FLOW BECOMES S TO SE BY TONIGHT...WITH MODERATE SW
FLOW ALOFT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION MAY DIFFER FROM
FORECAST. THERE MAY BE IFR IN SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN
INDUCED FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

.AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...IFR MAY LINGER IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES
WED AFTERNOON.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...ARJ



000
FXUS61 KRLX 261743
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
143 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AREA REMAINS IN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF WARM AND HUMID AIR.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY.
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO TRIM POPS A BIT FOLLOWING LATEST RADAR
IMAGES. RAINFALL ACTIVITY IS VERY LIMITED ATTM. HOWEVER...KEPT
LIKELY POPS AS EXPECTED CONVECTION SHOULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST OH...AND NORTHEAST KY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ALSO...TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPERATURES PER LATEST SFC OBS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

630 AM UPDATE...
THERE REMAIN SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH
MORNING MID LEVEL WAVE COME TOGETHER IN TERMS OF MEASURABLE
RAINFALL. KEPT THE SMALL LIKELY POPS MOVING NEWD THROUGH FCST AREA
THIS MORNING BUT LOWERED THE CHANCE FOR THE UNDER.

PREV DISCN...
WARM MOIST AIR ON THE MOVE KEEPS THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FCST THIS PERIOD. AFTERNOON INSTABILITY IS LIMITED TO A KG PER
KG OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON ON ACCOUNT OF MORNING CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION...AS PW VALUES RESIDE MAINLY BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75
INCHES.

OTHERWISE WEAK RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW OUT AHEAD OF A
S/W TROUGH DRIFTING NEWD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING...TO
THE MIDWEST WED MORNING...WILL DRIVE CONVECTION TIMING. ONE RIPPLE
WAS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS TO ERN
KY EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS
MORNING.

THE MAIN S/W TROUGH AXIS THEN LIFTS NEWD AND IS REPLACED
BY ANOTHER...THE LARGER FEATURE EFFECTIVELY MUCH SLOWER THAN THE
SMALLER RIPPLES WITHIN THE FLOW. THE TAIL END OF THE ORIGINAL S/W
TROUGH APPROACHES THE FCST AREA FROM THE W LATE TODAY AND THEN
CROSSES TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO PROGRESS
GENERALLY FROM W TO E ACROSS THE FCST AREA TONIGHT.

THE STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE COUPLED
WITH THE LATE DAY INSTABILITY...COULD LEAD TO STRONG TO DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS IN THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY LATE
TODAY...ESPECIALLY IF ONE IF FAR ENOUGH N AND W TO AVOID MUCH OF
THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE THE HWO MENTION IN LINE WITH
THE NEW SWODY1.

LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT THE STORMS WILL BE
ON THE MOVE...LIMITING ANY HIGH WATER TO THE ACUTE POOR DRAINAGE
VARIETY.

BLENDED IN MOSGUIDE FOR SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGHS ESPECIALLY E
TODAY...STILL AT THE HIGH END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOP. LOWS
TONIGHT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AND ACCEPTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ACTIVE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OFF THE EAST COAST...WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A WARM AND
HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE...AND THIS ALONG WITH SEVERAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY DURING DAYTIME HEATING
HOURS. ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN
THE HUMID ATMOSPHERE. THE AREA IS HIGHLIGHTED IN A MARGINAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST LOCATION FOR SEVERE LOOKS
TO BE TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE CWA...WHERE BETTER
INSTABILITY...SHEAR...AND UPPER DYNAMICS WILL EXIST. WILL HOWEVER
MENTION THE MARGINAL IN THE HWO AS AN ISOLATED STORM GOING SEVERE
IN THE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS CANT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

AN UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CWA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE STALLING OR WASHING OUT ACROSS THE
AREA. THUS...THERE APPEARS TO BE NO RELIEF IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. IN ADDITION...HEIGHTS WILL BUILD
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE...WITH
MAX TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOLLOWED ALONG WITH WPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM. FRONT
CROSSES LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH SOME COOLING AND DRYING NORTH AND
WEST. STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO DROP POPS COMPLETELY OUT OF
THE FORECAST SO LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH FRONT BEING IN THE
AREA. THUS...SUMMER LIKE BROAD BRUSH OF CHC POPS CARRY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGING AN INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON.
A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. POCKETS OF SUNSHINE PROVIDING NEEDED HEATING
FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE
CONVECTION WILL INITIATE ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND SOUTHEAST OH AROUND
21Z...AND A SECOND BATCH AROUND 02Z...TO AFFECT MAINLY THE EASTERN
SITES...PKN...HTS...AND CRW THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTER SUNSET...THE
RAINFALL ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST TOWARDS OUR EASTERN SITES BUT
WINING DOWN PER LOOSING DIURNAL HEATING. INSTABILITY IS NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE SO CODED VCTS AND VCSH THROUGH TONIGHT.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS MEDIUM...WITH UNCERTAINTY ON THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING/MOVING UP FROM THE S
THIS AFTERNOON...PLUS TIMING NEW ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ARRIVING
FROM THE WSW LATE THIS EVENING. SPC MOVED THE SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS FURTHER WEST...AWAY FROM OUR AREA INDICATING THAT
THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS HAS DIMINISHED.

HAVE CIGS MAINLY 4-5 KFT AND PREVAILING VFR VSBY. A SHORT PERIOD
OF MVFR IS STILL POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND
THUNDER IS LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN SITES. THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND
GUSTS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. BRIEF IFR IS
POSSIBLE BENEATH ANY THUNDERSTORM LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT.

LIGHT S TO SW FLOW BECOMES S TO SE BY TONIGHT...WITH MODERATE SW
FLOW ALOFT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION MAY DIFFER FROM
FORECAST. THERE MAY BE IFR IN SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN
INDUCED FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

.AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...IFR MAY LINGER IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES
WED AFTERNOON.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ/TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...ARJ



000
FXUS61 KRLX 261743
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
143 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AREA REMAINS IN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF WARM AND HUMID AIR.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY.
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO TRIM POPS A BIT FOLLOWING LATEST RADAR
IMAGES. RAINFALL ACTIVITY IS VERY LIMITED ATTM. HOWEVER...KEPT
LIKELY POPS AS EXPECTED CONVECTION SHOULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST OH...AND NORTHEAST KY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ALSO...TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPERATURES PER LATEST SFC OBS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

630 AM UPDATE...
THERE REMAIN SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH
MORNING MID LEVEL WAVE COME TOGETHER IN TERMS OF MEASURABLE
RAINFALL. KEPT THE SMALL LIKELY POPS MOVING NEWD THROUGH FCST AREA
THIS MORNING BUT LOWERED THE CHANCE FOR THE UNDER.

PREV DISCN...
WARM MOIST AIR ON THE MOVE KEEPS THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FCST THIS PERIOD. AFTERNOON INSTABILITY IS LIMITED TO A KG PER
KG OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON ON ACCOUNT OF MORNING CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION...AS PW VALUES RESIDE MAINLY BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75
INCHES.

OTHERWISE WEAK RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW OUT AHEAD OF A
S/W TROUGH DRIFTING NEWD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING...TO
THE MIDWEST WED MORNING...WILL DRIVE CONVECTION TIMING. ONE RIPPLE
WAS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS TO ERN
KY EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS
MORNING.

THE MAIN S/W TROUGH AXIS THEN LIFTS NEWD AND IS REPLACED
BY ANOTHER...THE LARGER FEATURE EFFECTIVELY MUCH SLOWER THAN THE
SMALLER RIPPLES WITHIN THE FLOW. THE TAIL END OF THE ORIGINAL S/W
TROUGH APPROACHES THE FCST AREA FROM THE W LATE TODAY AND THEN
CROSSES TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO PROGRESS
GENERALLY FROM W TO E ACROSS THE FCST AREA TONIGHT.

THE STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE COUPLED
WITH THE LATE DAY INSTABILITY...COULD LEAD TO STRONG TO DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS IN THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY LATE
TODAY...ESPECIALLY IF ONE IF FAR ENOUGH N AND W TO AVOID MUCH OF
THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE THE HWO MENTION IN LINE WITH
THE NEW SWODY1.

LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT THE STORMS WILL BE
ON THE MOVE...LIMITING ANY HIGH WATER TO THE ACUTE POOR DRAINAGE
VARIETY.

BLENDED IN MOSGUIDE FOR SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGHS ESPECIALLY E
TODAY...STILL AT THE HIGH END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOP. LOWS
TONIGHT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AND ACCEPTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ACTIVE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OFF THE EAST COAST...WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A WARM AND
HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE...AND THIS ALONG WITH SEVERAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY DURING DAYTIME HEATING
HOURS. ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN
THE HUMID ATMOSPHERE. THE AREA IS HIGHLIGHTED IN A MARGINAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST LOCATION FOR SEVERE LOOKS
TO BE TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE CWA...WHERE BETTER
INSTABILITY...SHEAR...AND UPPER DYNAMICS WILL EXIST. WILL HOWEVER
MENTION THE MARGINAL IN THE HWO AS AN ISOLATED STORM GOING SEVERE
IN THE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS CANT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

AN UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CWA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE STALLING OR WASHING OUT ACROSS THE
AREA. THUS...THERE APPEARS TO BE NO RELIEF IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. IN ADDITION...HEIGHTS WILL BUILD
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE...WITH
MAX TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOLLOWED ALONG WITH WPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM. FRONT
CROSSES LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH SOME COOLING AND DRYING NORTH AND
WEST. STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO DROP POPS COMPLETELY OUT OF
THE FORECAST SO LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH FRONT BEING IN THE
AREA. THUS...SUMMER LIKE BROAD BRUSH OF CHC POPS CARRY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGING AN INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON.
A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. POCKETS OF SUNSHINE PROVIDING NEEDED HEATING
FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE
CONVECTION WILL INITIATE ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND SOUTHEAST OH AROUND
21Z...AND A SECOND BATCH AROUND 02Z...TO AFFECT MAINLY THE EASTERN
SITES...PKN...HTS...AND CRW THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTER SUNSET...THE
RAINFALL ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST TOWARDS OUR EASTERN SITES BUT
WINING DOWN PER LOOSING DIURNAL HEATING. INSTABILITY IS NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE SO CODED VCTS AND VCSH THROUGH TONIGHT.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS MEDIUM...WITH UNCERTAINTY ON THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING/MOVING UP FROM THE S
THIS AFTERNOON...PLUS TIMING NEW ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ARRIVING
FROM THE WSW LATE THIS EVENING. SPC MOVED THE SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS FURTHER WEST...AWAY FROM OUR AREA INDICATING THAT
THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS HAS DIMINISHED.

HAVE CIGS MAINLY 4-5 KFT AND PREVAILING VFR VSBY. A SHORT PERIOD
OF MVFR IS STILL POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND
THUNDER IS LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN SITES. THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND
GUSTS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. BRIEF IFR IS
POSSIBLE BENEATH ANY THUNDERSTORM LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT.

LIGHT S TO SW FLOW BECOMES S TO SE BY TONIGHT...WITH MODERATE SW
FLOW ALOFT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION MAY DIFFER FROM
FORECAST. THERE MAY BE IFR IN SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN
INDUCED FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

.AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...IFR MAY LINGER IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES
WED AFTERNOON.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ/TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...ARJ



000
FXUS61 KRLX 261743
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
143 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AREA REMAINS IN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF WARM AND HUMID AIR.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY.
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO TRIM POPS A BIT FOLLOWING LATEST RADAR
IMAGES. RAINFALL ACTIVITY IS VERY LIMITED ATTM. HOWEVER...KEPT
LIKELY POPS AS EXPECTED CONVECTION SHOULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST OH...AND NORTHEAST KY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ALSO...TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPERATURES PER LATEST SFC OBS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

630 AM UPDATE...
THERE REMAIN SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH
MORNING MID LEVEL WAVE COME TOGETHER IN TERMS OF MEASURABLE
RAINFALL. KEPT THE SMALL LIKELY POPS MOVING NEWD THROUGH FCST AREA
THIS MORNING BUT LOWERED THE CHANCE FOR THE UNDER.

PREV DISCN...
WARM MOIST AIR ON THE MOVE KEEPS THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FCST THIS PERIOD. AFTERNOON INSTABILITY IS LIMITED TO A KG PER
KG OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON ON ACCOUNT OF MORNING CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION...AS PW VALUES RESIDE MAINLY BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75
INCHES.

OTHERWISE WEAK RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW OUT AHEAD OF A
S/W TROUGH DRIFTING NEWD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING...TO
THE MIDWEST WED MORNING...WILL DRIVE CONVECTION TIMING. ONE RIPPLE
WAS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS TO ERN
KY EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS
MORNING.

THE MAIN S/W TROUGH AXIS THEN LIFTS NEWD AND IS REPLACED
BY ANOTHER...THE LARGER FEATURE EFFECTIVELY MUCH SLOWER THAN THE
SMALLER RIPPLES WITHIN THE FLOW. THE TAIL END OF THE ORIGINAL S/W
TROUGH APPROACHES THE FCST AREA FROM THE W LATE TODAY AND THEN
CROSSES TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO PROGRESS
GENERALLY FROM W TO E ACROSS THE FCST AREA TONIGHT.

THE STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE COUPLED
WITH THE LATE DAY INSTABILITY...COULD LEAD TO STRONG TO DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS IN THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY LATE
TODAY...ESPECIALLY IF ONE IF FAR ENOUGH N AND W TO AVOID MUCH OF
THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE THE HWO MENTION IN LINE WITH
THE NEW SWODY1.

LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT THE STORMS WILL BE
ON THE MOVE...LIMITING ANY HIGH WATER TO THE ACUTE POOR DRAINAGE
VARIETY.

BLENDED IN MOSGUIDE FOR SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGHS ESPECIALLY E
TODAY...STILL AT THE HIGH END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOP. LOWS
TONIGHT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AND ACCEPTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ACTIVE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OFF THE EAST COAST...WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A WARM AND
HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE...AND THIS ALONG WITH SEVERAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY DURING DAYTIME HEATING
HOURS. ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN
THE HUMID ATMOSPHERE. THE AREA IS HIGHLIGHTED IN A MARGINAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST LOCATION FOR SEVERE LOOKS
TO BE TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE CWA...WHERE BETTER
INSTABILITY...SHEAR...AND UPPER DYNAMICS WILL EXIST. WILL HOWEVER
MENTION THE MARGINAL IN THE HWO AS AN ISOLATED STORM GOING SEVERE
IN THE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS CANT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

AN UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CWA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE STALLING OR WASHING OUT ACROSS THE
AREA. THUS...THERE APPEARS TO BE NO RELIEF IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. IN ADDITION...HEIGHTS WILL BUILD
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE...WITH
MAX TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOLLOWED ALONG WITH WPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM. FRONT
CROSSES LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH SOME COOLING AND DRYING NORTH AND
WEST. STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO DROP POPS COMPLETELY OUT OF
THE FORECAST SO LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH FRONT BEING IN THE
AREA. THUS...SUMMER LIKE BROAD BRUSH OF CHC POPS CARRY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGING AN INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON.
A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. POCKETS OF SUNSHINE PROVIDING NEEDED HEATING
FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE
CONVECTION WILL INITIATE ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND SOUTHEAST OH AROUND
21Z...AND A SECOND BATCH AROUND 02Z...TO AFFECT MAINLY THE EASTERN
SITES...PKN...HTS...AND CRW THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTER SUNSET...THE
RAINFALL ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST TOWARDS OUR EASTERN SITES BUT
WINING DOWN PER LOOSING DIURNAL HEATING. INSTABILITY IS NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE SO CODED VCTS AND VCSH THROUGH TONIGHT.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS MEDIUM...WITH UNCERTAINTY ON THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING/MOVING UP FROM THE S
THIS AFTERNOON...PLUS TIMING NEW ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ARRIVING
FROM THE WSW LATE THIS EVENING. SPC MOVED THE SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS FURTHER WEST...AWAY FROM OUR AREA INDICATING THAT
THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS HAS DIMINISHED.

HAVE CIGS MAINLY 4-5 KFT AND PREVAILING VFR VSBY. A SHORT PERIOD
OF MVFR IS STILL POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND
THUNDER IS LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN SITES. THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND
GUSTS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. BRIEF IFR IS
POSSIBLE BENEATH ANY THUNDERSTORM LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT.

LIGHT S TO SW FLOW BECOMES S TO SE BY TONIGHT...WITH MODERATE SW
FLOW ALOFT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION MAY DIFFER FROM
FORECAST. THERE MAY BE IFR IN SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN
INDUCED FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

.AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...IFR MAY LINGER IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES
WED AFTERNOON.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ/TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...ARJ



000
FXUS61 KRLX 261743
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
143 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AREA REMAINS IN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF WARM AND HUMID AIR.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY.
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO TRIM POPS A BIT FOLLOWING LATEST RADAR
IMAGES. RAINFALL ACTIVITY IS VERY LIMITED ATTM. HOWEVER...KEPT
LIKELY POPS AS EXPECTED CONVECTION SHOULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST OH...AND NORTHEAST KY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ALSO...TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPERATURES PER LATEST SFC OBS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

630 AM UPDATE...
THERE REMAIN SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH
MORNING MID LEVEL WAVE COME TOGETHER IN TERMS OF MEASURABLE
RAINFALL. KEPT THE SMALL LIKELY POPS MOVING NEWD THROUGH FCST AREA
THIS MORNING BUT LOWERED THE CHANCE FOR THE UNDER.

PREV DISCN...
WARM MOIST AIR ON THE MOVE KEEPS THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FCST THIS PERIOD. AFTERNOON INSTABILITY IS LIMITED TO A KG PER
KG OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON ON ACCOUNT OF MORNING CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION...AS PW VALUES RESIDE MAINLY BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75
INCHES.

OTHERWISE WEAK RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW OUT AHEAD OF A
S/W TROUGH DRIFTING NEWD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING...TO
THE MIDWEST WED MORNING...WILL DRIVE CONVECTION TIMING. ONE RIPPLE
WAS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS TO ERN
KY EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS
MORNING.

THE MAIN S/W TROUGH AXIS THEN LIFTS NEWD AND IS REPLACED
BY ANOTHER...THE LARGER FEATURE EFFECTIVELY MUCH SLOWER THAN THE
SMALLER RIPPLES WITHIN THE FLOW. THE TAIL END OF THE ORIGINAL S/W
TROUGH APPROACHES THE FCST AREA FROM THE W LATE TODAY AND THEN
CROSSES TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO PROGRESS
GENERALLY FROM W TO E ACROSS THE FCST AREA TONIGHT.

THE STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE COUPLED
WITH THE LATE DAY INSTABILITY...COULD LEAD TO STRONG TO DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS IN THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY LATE
TODAY...ESPECIALLY IF ONE IF FAR ENOUGH N AND W TO AVOID MUCH OF
THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE THE HWO MENTION IN LINE WITH
THE NEW SWODY1.

LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT THE STORMS WILL BE
ON THE MOVE...LIMITING ANY HIGH WATER TO THE ACUTE POOR DRAINAGE
VARIETY.

BLENDED IN MOSGUIDE FOR SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGHS ESPECIALLY E
TODAY...STILL AT THE HIGH END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOP. LOWS
TONIGHT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AND ACCEPTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ACTIVE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OFF THE EAST COAST...WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A WARM AND
HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE...AND THIS ALONG WITH SEVERAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY DURING DAYTIME HEATING
HOURS. ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN
THE HUMID ATMOSPHERE. THE AREA IS HIGHLIGHTED IN A MARGINAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST LOCATION FOR SEVERE LOOKS
TO BE TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE CWA...WHERE BETTER
INSTABILITY...SHEAR...AND UPPER DYNAMICS WILL EXIST. WILL HOWEVER
MENTION THE MARGINAL IN THE HWO AS AN ISOLATED STORM GOING SEVERE
IN THE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS CANT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

AN UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CWA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE STALLING OR WASHING OUT ACROSS THE
AREA. THUS...THERE APPEARS TO BE NO RELIEF IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. IN ADDITION...HEIGHTS WILL BUILD
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE...WITH
MAX TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOLLOWED ALONG WITH WPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM. FRONT
CROSSES LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH SOME COOLING AND DRYING NORTH AND
WEST. STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO DROP POPS COMPLETELY OUT OF
THE FORECAST SO LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH FRONT BEING IN THE
AREA. THUS...SUMMER LIKE BROAD BRUSH OF CHC POPS CARRY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGING AN INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON.
A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. POCKETS OF SUNSHINE PROVIDING NEEDED HEATING
FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE
CONVECTION WILL INITIATE ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND SOUTHEAST OH AROUND
21Z...AND A SECOND BATCH AROUND 02Z...TO AFFECT MAINLY THE EASTERN
SITES...PKN...HTS...AND CRW THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTER SUNSET...THE
RAINFALL ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST TOWARDS OUR EASTERN SITES BUT
WINING DOWN PER LOOSING DIURNAL HEATING. INSTABILITY IS NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE SO CODED VCTS AND VCSH THROUGH TONIGHT.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS MEDIUM...WITH UNCERTAINTY ON THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING/MOVING UP FROM THE S
THIS AFTERNOON...PLUS TIMING NEW ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ARRIVING
FROM THE WSW LATE THIS EVENING. SPC MOVED THE SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS FURTHER WEST...AWAY FROM OUR AREA INDICATING THAT
THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS HAS DIMINISHED.

HAVE CIGS MAINLY 4-5 KFT AND PREVAILING VFR VSBY. A SHORT PERIOD
OF MVFR IS STILL POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND
THUNDER IS LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN SITES. THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND
GUSTS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. BRIEF IFR IS
POSSIBLE BENEATH ANY THUNDERSTORM LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT.

LIGHT S TO SW FLOW BECOMES S TO SE BY TONIGHT...WITH MODERATE SW
FLOW ALOFT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION MAY DIFFER FROM
FORECAST. THERE MAY BE IFR IN SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN
INDUCED FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

.AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...IFR MAY LINGER IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES
WED AFTERNOON.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ/TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...ARJ



000
FXUS61 KRLX 261743
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
143 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AREA REMAINS IN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF WARM AND HUMID AIR.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY.
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO TRIM POPS A BIT FOLLOWING LATEST RADAR
IMAGES. RAINFALL ACTIVITY IS VERY LIMITED ATTM. HOWEVER...KEPT
LIKELY POPS AS EXPECTED CONVECTION SHOULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST OH...AND NORTHEAST KY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ALSO...TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPERATURES PER LATEST SFC OBS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

630 AM UPDATE...
THERE REMAIN SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH
MORNING MID LEVEL WAVE COME TOGETHER IN TERMS OF MEASURABLE
RAINFALL. KEPT THE SMALL LIKELY POPS MOVING NEWD THROUGH FCST AREA
THIS MORNING BUT LOWERED THE CHANCE FOR THE UNDER.

PREV DISCN...
WARM MOIST AIR ON THE MOVE KEEPS THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FCST THIS PERIOD. AFTERNOON INSTABILITY IS LIMITED TO A KG PER
KG OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON ON ACCOUNT OF MORNING CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION...AS PW VALUES RESIDE MAINLY BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75
INCHES.

OTHERWISE WEAK RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW OUT AHEAD OF A
S/W TROUGH DRIFTING NEWD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING...TO
THE MIDWEST WED MORNING...WILL DRIVE CONVECTION TIMING. ONE RIPPLE
WAS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS TO ERN
KY EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS
MORNING.

THE MAIN S/W TROUGH AXIS THEN LIFTS NEWD AND IS REPLACED
BY ANOTHER...THE LARGER FEATURE EFFECTIVELY MUCH SLOWER THAN THE
SMALLER RIPPLES WITHIN THE FLOW. THE TAIL END OF THE ORIGINAL S/W
TROUGH APPROACHES THE FCST AREA FROM THE W LATE TODAY AND THEN
CROSSES TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO PROGRESS
GENERALLY FROM W TO E ACROSS THE FCST AREA TONIGHT.

THE STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE COUPLED
WITH THE LATE DAY INSTABILITY...COULD LEAD TO STRONG TO DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS IN THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY LATE
TODAY...ESPECIALLY IF ONE IF FAR ENOUGH N AND W TO AVOID MUCH OF
THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE THE HWO MENTION IN LINE WITH
THE NEW SWODY1.

LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT THE STORMS WILL BE
ON THE MOVE...LIMITING ANY HIGH WATER TO THE ACUTE POOR DRAINAGE
VARIETY.

BLENDED IN MOSGUIDE FOR SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGHS ESPECIALLY E
TODAY...STILL AT THE HIGH END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOP. LOWS
TONIGHT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AND ACCEPTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ACTIVE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OFF THE EAST COAST...WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A WARM AND
HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE...AND THIS ALONG WITH SEVERAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY DURING DAYTIME HEATING
HOURS. ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN
THE HUMID ATMOSPHERE. THE AREA IS HIGHLIGHTED IN A MARGINAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST LOCATION FOR SEVERE LOOKS
TO BE TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE CWA...WHERE BETTER
INSTABILITY...SHEAR...AND UPPER DYNAMICS WILL EXIST. WILL HOWEVER
MENTION THE MARGINAL IN THE HWO AS AN ISOLATED STORM GOING SEVERE
IN THE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS CANT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

AN UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CWA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE STALLING OR WASHING OUT ACROSS THE
AREA. THUS...THERE APPEARS TO BE NO RELIEF IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. IN ADDITION...HEIGHTS WILL BUILD
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE...WITH
MAX TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOLLOWED ALONG WITH WPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM. FRONT
CROSSES LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH SOME COOLING AND DRYING NORTH AND
WEST. STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO DROP POPS COMPLETELY OUT OF
THE FORECAST SO LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH FRONT BEING IN THE
AREA. THUS...SUMMER LIKE BROAD BRUSH OF CHC POPS CARRY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGING AN INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON.
A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. POCKETS OF SUNSHINE PROVIDING NEEDED HEATING
FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE
CONVECTION WILL INITIATE ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND SOUTHEAST OH AROUND
21Z...AND A SECOND BATCH AROUND 02Z...TO AFFECT MAINLY THE EASTERN
SITES...PKN...HTS...AND CRW THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTER SUNSET...THE
RAINFALL ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST TOWARDS OUR EASTERN SITES BUT
WINING DOWN PER LOOSING DIURNAL HEATING. INSTABILITY IS NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE SO CODED VCTS AND VCSH THROUGH TONIGHT.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS MEDIUM...WITH UNCERTAINTY ON THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING/MOVING UP FROM THE S
THIS AFTERNOON...PLUS TIMING NEW ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ARRIVING
FROM THE WSW LATE THIS EVENING. SPC MOVED THE SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS FURTHER WEST...AWAY FROM OUR AREA INDICATING THAT
THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS HAS DIMINISHED.

HAVE CIGS MAINLY 4-5 KFT AND PREVAILING VFR VSBY. A SHORT PERIOD
OF MVFR IS STILL POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND
THUNDER IS LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN SITES. THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND
GUSTS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. BRIEF IFR IS
POSSIBLE BENEATH ANY THUNDERSTORM LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT.

LIGHT S TO SW FLOW BECOMES S TO SE BY TONIGHT...WITH MODERATE SW
FLOW ALOFT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION MAY DIFFER FROM
FORECAST. THERE MAY BE IFR IN SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN
INDUCED FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

.AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...IFR MAY LINGER IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES
WED AFTERNOON.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ/TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...ARJ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 261417
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1017 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF WARM AND
HUMID AIR. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS THROUGH TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO TRIM POPS A BIT FOLLOWING LATEST RADAR
IMAGES. RAINFALL ACTIVITY IS VERY LIMITED ATTM. HOWEVER...KEPT
LIKELY POPS AS EXPECTED CONVECTION SHOULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST OH...AND NORTHEAST KY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ALSO...TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPERATURES PER LATEST SFC OBS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

630 AM UPDATE...
THERE REMAIN SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH
MORNING MID LEVEL WAVE COME TOGETHER IN TERMS OF MEASURABLE
RAINFALL. KEPT THE SMALL LIKELY POPS MOVING NEWD THROUGH FCST AREA
THIS MORNING BUT LOWERED THE CHANCE FOR THE UNDER.

PREV DISCN...
WARM MOIST AIR ON THE MOVE KEEPS THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FCST THIS PERIOD. AFTERNOON INSTABILITY IS LIMITED TO A KG PER
KG OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON ON ACCOUNT OF MORNING CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION...AS PW VALUES RESIDE MAINLY BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75
INCHES.

OTHERWISE WEAK RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW OUT AHEAD OF A
S/W TROUGH DRIFTING NEWD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING...TO
THE MIDWEST WED MORNING...WILL DRIVE CONVECTION TIMING. ONE RIPPLE
WAS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS TO ERN
KY EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS
MORNING.

THE MAIN S/W TROUGH AXIS THEN LIFTS NEWD AND IS REPLACED
BY ANOTHER...THE LARGER FEATURE EFFECTIVELY MUCH SLOWER THAN THE
SMALLER RIPPLES WITHIN THE FLOW. THE TAIL END OF THE ORIGINAL S/W
TROUGH APPROACHES THE FCST AREA FROM THE W LATE TODAY AND THEN
CROSSES TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO PROGRESS
GENERALLY FROM W TO E ACROSS THE FCST AREA TONIGHT.

THE STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE COUPLED
WITH THE LATE DAY INSTABILITY...COULD LEAD TO STRONG TO DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS IN THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY LATE
TODAY...ESPECIALLY IF ONE IF FAR ENOUGH N AND W TO AVOID MUCH OF
THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE THE HWO MENTION IN LINE WITH
THE NEW SWODY1.

LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT THE STORMS WILL BE
ON THE MOVE...LIMITING ANY HIGH WATER TO THE ACUTE POOR DRAINAGE
VARIETY.

BLENDED IN MOSGUIDE FOR SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGHS ESPECIALLY E
TODAY...STILL AT THE HIGH END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOP. LOWS
TONIGHT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AND ACCEPTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ACTIVE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OFF THE EAST COAST...WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A WARM AND
HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE...AND THIS ALONG WITH SEVERAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY DURING DAYTIME HEATING
HOURS. ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN
THE HUMID ATMOSPHERE. THE AREA IS HIGHLIGHTED IN A MARGINAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST LOCATION FOR SEVERE LOOKS
TO BE TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE CWA...WHERE BETTER
INSTABILITY...SHEAR...AND UPPER DYNAMICS WILL EXIST. WILL HOWEVER
MENTION THE MARGINAL IN THE HWO AS AN ISOLATED STORM GOING SEVERE
IN THE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS CANT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

AN UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CWA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE STALLING OR WASHING OUT ACROSS THE
AREA. THUS...THERE APPEARS TO BE NO RELIEF IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. IN ADDITION...HEIGHTS WILL BUILD
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE...WITH
MAX TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOLLOWED ALONG WITH WPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM. FRONT
CROSSES LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH SOME COOLING AND DRYING NORTH AND
WEST. STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO DROP POPS COMPLETELY OUT OF
THE FORECAST SO LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH FRONT BEING IN THE
AREA. THUS...SUMMER LIKE BROAD BRUSH OF CHC POPS CARRY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID AIR IN PLACE...AND RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVEL SW
FLOW...SPELL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS KEEPS
CONFIDENCE AT MEDIUM...WITH UNCERTAINTY ON THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING/MOVING UP FROM THE S EARLY THIS
MORNING...PLUS TIMING NEW ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ARRIVING FROM THE
WSW LATE IN THE DAY TUE.

HAVE CIGS MAINLY ATOP MIXING LAYER 4-5 KFT AND PREVAILING VFR
VSBY. A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR IS STILL POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS MOVE
THROUGH THIS MORNING...AND THUNDER IS POSSIBLE BUT NOT LIKELY.
AFTER A RELATIVE AFTERNOON LULL...ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS
LIKELY TO ARRIVE FROM THE W LATE TODAY OR THIS EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE STRONG
WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. BRIEF IFR IS
POSSIBLE BENEATH ANY THUNDERSTORM LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT.

SFC FLOW WILL BE LIGHT S TO SW BY DAY AND S TO SE BY NT...WITH
MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION MAY DIFFER FROM
FORECAST. THERE MAY BE IFR IN SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN
INDUCED FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

.AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...LOCAL IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS...AND RAIN
INDUCED LOW STRATUS AND FOG INTO WED MORNING. IFR MAY LINGER
IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES WED AFTERNOON.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ/TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...TRM



000
FXUS61 KRLX 261041
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
641 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF WARM AND
HUMID AIR. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS THROUGH TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE...
THERE REMAIN SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH
MORNING MID LEVEL WAVE COME TOGETHER IN TERMS OF MEASURABLE
RAINFALL. KEPT THE SMALL LIKELY POPS MOVING NEWD THROUGH FCST AREA
THIS MORNING BUT LOWERED THE CHANCE FOR THE UNDER.

PREV DISCN...
WARM MOIST AIR ON THE MOVE KEEPS THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FCST THIS PERIOD. AFTERNOON INSTABILITY IS LIMITED TO A KG PER
KG OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON ON ACCOUNT OF MORNING CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION...AS PW VALUES RESIDE MAINLY BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75
INCHES.

OTHERWISE WEAK RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW OUT AHEAD OF A
S/W TROUGH DRIFTING NEWD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING...TO
THE MIDWEST WED MORNING...WILL DRIVE CONVECTION TIMING. ONE RIPPLE
WAS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS TO ERN
KY EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS
MORNING.

THE MAIN S/W TROUGH AXIS THEN LIFTS NEWD AND IS REPLACED
BY ANOTHER...THE LARGER FEATURE EFFECTIVELY MUCH SLOWER THAN THE
SMALLER RIPPLES WITHIN THE FLOW. THE TAIL END OF THE ORIGINAL S/W
TROUGH APPROACHES THE FCST AREA FROM THE W LATE TODAY AND THEN
CROSSES TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO PROGRESS
GENERALLY FROM W TO E ACROSS THE FCST AREA TONIGHT.

THE STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE COUPLED
WITH THE LATE DAY INSTABILITY...COULD LEAD TO STRONG TO DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS IN THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY LATE
TODAY...ESPECIALLY IF ONE IF FAR ENOUGH N AND W TO AVOID MUCH OF
THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE THE HWO MENTION IN LINE WITH
THE NEW SWODY1.

LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT THE STORMS WILL BE
ON THE MOVE...LIMITING ANY HIGH WATER TO THE ACUTE POOR DRAINAGE
VARIETY.

BLENDED IN MOSGUIDE FOR SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGHS ESPECIALLY E
TODAY...STILL AT THE HIGH END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOP. LOWS
TONIGHT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AND ACCEPTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ACTIVE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OFF THE EAST COAST...WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A WARM AND
HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE...AND THIS ALONG WITH SEVERAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY DURING DAYTIME HEATING
HOURS. ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN
THE HUMID ATMOSPHERE. THE AREA IS HIGHLIGHTED IN A MARGINAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST LOCATION FOR SEVERE LOOKS
TO BE TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE CWA...WHERE BETTER
INSTABILITY...SHEAR...AND UPPER DYNAMICS WILL EXIST. WILL HOWEVER
MENTION THE MARGINAL IN THE HWO AS AN ISOLATED STORM GOING SEVERE
IN THE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS CANT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

AN UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CWA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE STALLING OR WASHING OUT ACROSS THE
AREA. THUS...THERE APPEARS TO BE NO RELIEF IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. IN ADDITION...HEIGHTS WILL BUILD
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE...WITH
MAX TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOLLOWED ALONG WITH WPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM. FRONT
CROSSES LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH SOME COOLING AND DRYING NORTH AND
WEST. STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO DROP POPS COMPLETELY OUT OF
THE FORECAST SO LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH FRONT BEING IN THE
AREA. THUS...SUMMER LIKE BROAD BRUSH OF CHC POPS CARRY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID AIR IN PLACE...AND RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVEL SW
FLOW...SPELL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS KEEPS
CONFIDENCE AT MEDIUM...WITH UNCERTAINTY ON THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING/MOVING UP FROM THE S EARLY THIS
MORNING...PLUS TIMING NEW ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ARRIVING FROM THE
WSW LATE IN THE DAY TUE.

HAVE CIGS MAINLY ATOP MIXING LAYER 4-5 KFT AND PREVAILING VFR
VSBY. A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR IS STILL POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS MOVE
THROUGH THIS MORNING...AND THUNDER IS POSSIBLE BUT NOT LIKELY.
AFTER A RELATIVE AFTERNOON LULL...ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS
LIKELY TO ARRIVE FROM THE W LATE TODAY OR THIS EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE STRONG
WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. BRIEF IFR IS
POSSIBLE BENEATH ANY THUNDERSTORM LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT.

SFC FLOW WILL BE LIGHT S TO SW BY DAY AND S TO SE BY NT...WITH
MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION MAY DIFFER FROM
FORECAST. THERE MAY BE IFR IN SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN
INDUCED FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

.AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...LOCAL IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS...AND RAIN
INDUCED LOW STRATUS AND FOG INTO WED MORNING. IFR MAY LINGER
IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...TRM



000
FXUS61 KRLX 261041
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
641 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF WARM AND
HUMID AIR. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS THROUGH TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE...
THERE REMAIN SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH
MORNING MID LEVEL WAVE COME TOGETHER IN TERMS OF MEASURABLE
RAINFALL. KEPT THE SMALL LIKELY POPS MOVING NEWD THROUGH FCST AREA
THIS MORNING BUT LOWERED THE CHANCE FOR THE UNDER.

PREV DISCN...
WARM MOIST AIR ON THE MOVE KEEPS THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FCST THIS PERIOD. AFTERNOON INSTABILITY IS LIMITED TO A KG PER
KG OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON ON ACCOUNT OF MORNING CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION...AS PW VALUES RESIDE MAINLY BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75
INCHES.

OTHERWISE WEAK RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW OUT AHEAD OF A
S/W TROUGH DRIFTING NEWD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING...TO
THE MIDWEST WED MORNING...WILL DRIVE CONVECTION TIMING. ONE RIPPLE
WAS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS TO ERN
KY EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS
MORNING.

THE MAIN S/W TROUGH AXIS THEN LIFTS NEWD AND IS REPLACED
BY ANOTHER...THE LARGER FEATURE EFFECTIVELY MUCH SLOWER THAN THE
SMALLER RIPPLES WITHIN THE FLOW. THE TAIL END OF THE ORIGINAL S/W
TROUGH APPROACHES THE FCST AREA FROM THE W LATE TODAY AND THEN
CROSSES TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO PROGRESS
GENERALLY FROM W TO E ACROSS THE FCST AREA TONIGHT.

THE STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE COUPLED
WITH THE LATE DAY INSTABILITY...COULD LEAD TO STRONG TO DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS IN THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY LATE
TODAY...ESPECIALLY IF ONE IF FAR ENOUGH N AND W TO AVOID MUCH OF
THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE THE HWO MENTION IN LINE WITH
THE NEW SWODY1.

LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT THE STORMS WILL BE
ON THE MOVE...LIMITING ANY HIGH WATER TO THE ACUTE POOR DRAINAGE
VARIETY.

BLENDED IN MOSGUIDE FOR SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGHS ESPECIALLY E
TODAY...STILL AT THE HIGH END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOP. LOWS
TONIGHT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AND ACCEPTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ACTIVE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OFF THE EAST COAST...WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A WARM AND
HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE...AND THIS ALONG WITH SEVERAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY DURING DAYTIME HEATING
HOURS. ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN
THE HUMID ATMOSPHERE. THE AREA IS HIGHLIGHTED IN A MARGINAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST LOCATION FOR SEVERE LOOKS
TO BE TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE CWA...WHERE BETTER
INSTABILITY...SHEAR...AND UPPER DYNAMICS WILL EXIST. WILL HOWEVER
MENTION THE MARGINAL IN THE HWO AS AN ISOLATED STORM GOING SEVERE
IN THE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS CANT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

AN UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CWA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE STALLING OR WASHING OUT ACROSS THE
AREA. THUS...THERE APPEARS TO BE NO RELIEF IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. IN ADDITION...HEIGHTS WILL BUILD
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE...WITH
MAX TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOLLOWED ALONG WITH WPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM. FRONT
CROSSES LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH SOME COOLING AND DRYING NORTH AND
WEST. STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO DROP POPS COMPLETELY OUT OF
THE FORECAST SO LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH FRONT BEING IN THE
AREA. THUS...SUMMER LIKE BROAD BRUSH OF CHC POPS CARRY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID AIR IN PLACE...AND RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVEL SW
FLOW...SPELL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS KEEPS
CONFIDENCE AT MEDIUM...WITH UNCERTAINTY ON THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING/MOVING UP FROM THE S EARLY THIS
MORNING...PLUS TIMING NEW ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ARRIVING FROM THE
WSW LATE IN THE DAY TUE.

HAVE CIGS MAINLY ATOP MIXING LAYER 4-5 KFT AND PREVAILING VFR
VSBY. A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR IS STILL POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS MOVE
THROUGH THIS MORNING...AND THUNDER IS POSSIBLE BUT NOT LIKELY.
AFTER A RELATIVE AFTERNOON LULL...ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS
LIKELY TO ARRIVE FROM THE W LATE TODAY OR THIS EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE STRONG
WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. BRIEF IFR IS
POSSIBLE BENEATH ANY THUNDERSTORM LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT.

SFC FLOW WILL BE LIGHT S TO SW BY DAY AND S TO SE BY NT...WITH
MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION MAY DIFFER FROM
FORECAST. THERE MAY BE IFR IN SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN
INDUCED FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

.AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...LOCAL IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS...AND RAIN
INDUCED LOW STRATUS AND FOG INTO WED MORNING. IFR MAY LINGER
IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...TRM




000
FXUS61 KRLX 260715
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
315 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF WARM AND
HUMID AIR. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS THROUGH TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WARM MOIST AIR ON THE MOVE KEEPS THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FCST THIS PERIOD. AFTERNOON INSTABILITY IS LIMITED TO A KG PER
KG OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON ON ACCOUNT OF MORNING CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION...AS PW VALUES RESIDE MAINLY BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75
INCHES.

OTHERWISE WEAK RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW OUT AHEAD OF A
S/W TROUGH DRIFTING NEWD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING...TO
THE MIDWEST WED MORNING...WILL DRIVE CONVECTION TIMING. ONE RIPPLE
WAS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS TO ERN
KY EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS
MORNING.

THE MAIN S/W TROUGH AXIS THEN LIFTS NEWD AND IS REPLACED
BY ANOTHER...THE LARGER FEATURE EFFECTIVELY MUCH SLOWER THAN THE
SMALLER RIPPLES WITHIN THE FLOW. THE TAIL END OF THE ORIGINAL S/W
TROUGH APPROACHES THE FCST AREA FROM THE W LATE TODAY AND THEN
CROSSES TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO PROGRESS
GENERALLY FROM W TO E ACROSS THE FCST AREA TONIGHT.

THE STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE COUPLED
WITH THE LATE DAY INSTABILITY...COULD LEAD TO STRONG TO DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS IN THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY LATE
TODAY...ESPECIALLY IF ONE IF FAR ENOUGH N AND W TO AVOID MUCH OF
THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE THE HWO MENTION IN LINE WITH
THE NEW SWODY1.

LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT THE STORMS WILL BE
ON THE MOVE...LIMITING ANY HIGH WATER TO THE ACUTE POOR DRAINAGE
VARIETY.

BLENDED IN MOSGUIDE FOR SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGHS ESPECIALLY E
TODAY...STILL AT THE HIGH END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOP. LOWS
TONIGHT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AND ACCEPTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ACTIVE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OFF THE EAST COAST...WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A WARM AND
HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE...AND THIS ALONG WITH SEVERAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY DURING DAYTIME HEATING
HOURS. ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN
THE HUMID ATMOSPHERE. THE AREA IS HIGHLIGHTED IN A MARGINAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST LOCATION FOR SEVERE LOOKS
TO BE TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE CWA...WHERE BETTER
INSTABILITY...SHEAR...AND UPPER DYNAMICS WILL EXIST. WILL HOWEVER
MENTION THE MARGINAL IN THE HWO AS AN ISOLATED STORM GOING SEVERE
IN THE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS CANT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

AN UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CWA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE STALLING OR WASHING OUT ACROSS THE
AREA. THUS...THERE APPEARS TO BE NO RELIEF IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. IN ADDITION...HEIGHTS WILL BUILD
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE...WITH
MAX TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOLLOWED ALONG WITH WPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM. FRONT
CROSSES LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH SOME COOLING AND DRYING NORTH AND
WEST. STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO DROP POPS COMPLETELY OUT OF
THE FORECAST SO LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH FRONT BEING IN THE
AREA. THUS...SUMMER LIKE BROAD BRUSH OF CHC POPS CARRY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID AIR IN PLACE...AND RIPPLE IN THE UPPER LEVEL SW
FLOW...SPELL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS KEEPS
CONFIDENCE AT MEDIUM...WITH UNCERTAINTY ON THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING/MOVING UP FROM THE S EARLY TUE
MORNING...PLUS TIMING NEW ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ARRIVING FROM THE
WSW LATE IN THE DAY TUE.

HAVE CIGS MAINLY ATOP MIXING LAYER 4-5 KFT AND PREVAILING VFR
VSBY. A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR IS LIKELY AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH
TUE MORNING...BUT IFR IS POSSIBLE IN A HEAVIER SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM. AFTER A RELATIVE AFTERNOON LULL...ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE FROM THE W LATE TUE OR TUE EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE STRONG
WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.

SFC FLOW WILL BE LIGHT S TO SE BY NT AND S TO SW BY DAY...WITH
MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION MAY DIFFER FROM
FORECAST.

.AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...LOCAL IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS OVERNIGHT TUE NT
INTO WED MORNING...AND RAIN INDUCED LOW STRATUS AND FOG. IFR MAY
LINGER THROUGH MOUNTAIN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...TRM




000
FXUS61 KRLX 260702
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
302 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF WARM AND
HUMID AIR. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS THROUGH TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WARM MOIST AIR ON THE MOVE KEEPS THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FCST THIS PERIOD. AFTERNOON INSTABILITY IS LIMITED TO A KG PER
KG OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON ON ACCOUNT OF MORNING CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION...AS PW VALUES RESIDE MAINLY BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75
INCHES.

OTHERWISE WEAK RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW OUT AHEAD OF A
S/W TROUGH DRIFTING NEWD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING...TO
THE MIDWEST WED MORNING...WILL DRIVE CONVECTION TIMING. ONE RIPPLE
WAS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS TO ERN
KY EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS
MORNING.

THE MAIN S/W TROUGH AXIS THEN LIFTS NEWD AND IS REPLACED
BY ANOTHER...THE LARGER FEATURE EFFECTIVELY MUCH SLOWER THAN THE
SMALLER RIPPLES WITHIN THE FLOW. THE TAIL END OF THE ORIGINAL S/W
TROUGH APPROACHES THE FCST AREA FROM THE W LATE TODAY AND THEN
CROSSES TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO PROGRESS
GENERALLY FROM W TO E ACROSS THE FCST AREA TONIGHT.

THE STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE COUPLED
WITH THE LATE DAY INSTABILITY...COULD LEAD TO STRONG TO DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS IN THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY LATE
TODAY...ESPECIALLY IF ONE IF FAR ENOUGH N AND W TO AVOID MUCH OF
THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE THE HWO MENTION IN LINE WITH
THE NEW SWODY1.

LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT THE STORMS WILL BE
ON THE MOVE...LIMITING ANY HIGH WATER TO THE ACUTE POOR DRAINAGE
VARIETY.

BLENDED IN MOSGUIDE FOR SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGHS ESPECIALLY E
TODAY...STILL AT THE HIGH END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOP. LOWS
TONIGHT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AND ACCEPTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DEEP LAYER S TO SW FLOW WITH ATLANTIC RIDGE TO THE EAST AND
TROUGH TO THE W. A FEW DISTURBANCES IN SW FLOW WILL PROVIDE A
KICKER FOR ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. TIMING THESE FEATURES IS
DIFFICULT...THUS WILL CARRY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH PRESENCE OF DIURNAL HEATING. WILL CONTINUE
MENTION WITH SPC MARGINAL RISK TUE AND WED WHILE ALSO COVERING FOR
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR TEMPS...STAYED MAINLY WITH INHERITED VALUES...WITH A SLIGHT
BLEND TOWARD LATEST GUIDANCE VALUES WITH DID NOT RESULT IN MUCH
CHANGE IN FORECAST TRENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOLLOWED ALONG WITH WPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM. FRONT
CROSSES LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH SOME COOLING AND DRYING NORTH AND
WEST. STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO DROP POPS COMPLETELY OUT OF
THE FORECAST SO LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH FRONT BEING IN THE
AREA. THUS...SUMMER LIKE BROAD BRUSH OF CHC POPS CARRY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID AIR IN PLACE...AND RIPPLE IN THE UPPER LEVEL SW
FLOW...SPELL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS KEEPS
CONFIDENCE AT MEDIUM...WITH UNCERTAINTY ON THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING/MOVING UP FROM THE S EARLY TUE
MORNING...PLUS TIMING NEW ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ARRIVING FROM THE
WSW LATE IN THE DAY TUE.

HAVE CIGS MAINLY ATOP MIXING LAYER 4-5 KFT AND PREVAILING VFR
VSBY. A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR IS LIKELY AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH
TUE MORNING...BUT IFR IS POSSIBLE IN A HEAVIER SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM. AFTER A RELATIVE AFTERNOON LULL...ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE FROM THE W LATE TUE OR TUE EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE STRONG
WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.

SFC FLOW WILL BE LIGHT S TO SE BY NT AND S TO SW BY DAY...WITH
MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION MAY DIFFER FROM
FORECAST.

.AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...LOCAL IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS OVERNIGHT TUE NT
INTO WED MORNING...AND RAIN INDUCED LOW STRATUS AND FOG. IFR MAY
LINGER THROUGH MOUNTAIN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...TRM



000
FXUS61 KRLX 260702
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
302 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF WARM AND
HUMID AIR. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS THROUGH TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WARM MOIST AIR ON THE MOVE KEEPS THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FCST THIS PERIOD. AFTERNOON INSTABILITY IS LIMITED TO A KG PER
KG OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON ON ACCOUNT OF MORNING CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION...AS PW VALUES RESIDE MAINLY BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75
INCHES.

OTHERWISE WEAK RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW OUT AHEAD OF A
S/W TROUGH DRIFTING NEWD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING...TO
THE MIDWEST WED MORNING...WILL DRIVE CONVECTION TIMING. ONE RIPPLE
WAS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS TO ERN
KY EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS
MORNING.

THE MAIN S/W TROUGH AXIS THEN LIFTS NEWD AND IS REPLACED
BY ANOTHER...THE LARGER FEATURE EFFECTIVELY MUCH SLOWER THAN THE
SMALLER RIPPLES WITHIN THE FLOW. THE TAIL END OF THE ORIGINAL S/W
TROUGH APPROACHES THE FCST AREA FROM THE W LATE TODAY AND THEN
CROSSES TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO PROGRESS
GENERALLY FROM W TO E ACROSS THE FCST AREA TONIGHT.

THE STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE COUPLED
WITH THE LATE DAY INSTABILITY...COULD LEAD TO STRONG TO DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS IN THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY LATE
TODAY...ESPECIALLY IF ONE IF FAR ENOUGH N AND W TO AVOID MUCH OF
THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE THE HWO MENTION IN LINE WITH
THE NEW SWODY1.

LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT THE STORMS WILL BE
ON THE MOVE...LIMITING ANY HIGH WATER TO THE ACUTE POOR DRAINAGE
VARIETY.

BLENDED IN MOSGUIDE FOR SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGHS ESPECIALLY E
TODAY...STILL AT THE HIGH END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOP. LOWS
TONIGHT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AND ACCEPTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DEEP LAYER S TO SW FLOW WITH ATLANTIC RIDGE TO THE EAST AND
TROUGH TO THE W. A FEW DISTURBANCES IN SW FLOW WILL PROVIDE A
KICKER FOR ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. TIMING THESE FEATURES IS
DIFFICULT...THUS WILL CARRY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH PRESENCE OF DIURNAL HEATING. WILL CONTINUE
MENTION WITH SPC MARGINAL RISK TUE AND WED WHILE ALSO COVERING FOR
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR TEMPS...STAYED MAINLY WITH INHERITED VALUES...WITH A SLIGHT
BLEND TOWARD LATEST GUIDANCE VALUES WITH DID NOT RESULT IN MUCH
CHANGE IN FORECAST TRENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOLLOWED ALONG WITH WPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM. FRONT
CROSSES LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH SOME COOLING AND DRYING NORTH AND
WEST. STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO DROP POPS COMPLETELY OUT OF
THE FORECAST SO LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH FRONT BEING IN THE
AREA. THUS...SUMMER LIKE BROAD BRUSH OF CHC POPS CARRY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID AIR IN PLACE...AND RIPPLE IN THE UPPER LEVEL SW
FLOW...SPELL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS KEEPS
CONFIDENCE AT MEDIUM...WITH UNCERTAINTY ON THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING/MOVING UP FROM THE S EARLY TUE
MORNING...PLUS TIMING NEW ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ARRIVING FROM THE
WSW LATE IN THE DAY TUE.

HAVE CIGS MAINLY ATOP MIXING LAYER 4-5 KFT AND PREVAILING VFR
VSBY. A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR IS LIKELY AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH
TUE MORNING...BUT IFR IS POSSIBLE IN A HEAVIER SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM. AFTER A RELATIVE AFTERNOON LULL...ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE FROM THE W LATE TUE OR TUE EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE STRONG
WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.

SFC FLOW WILL BE LIGHT S TO SE BY NT AND S TO SW BY DAY...WITH
MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION MAY DIFFER FROM
FORECAST.

.AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...LOCAL IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS OVERNIGHT TUE NT
INTO WED MORNING...AND RAIN INDUCED LOW STRATUS AND FOG. IFR MAY
LINGER THROUGH MOUNTAIN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...TRM




000
FXUS61 KRLX 260702
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
302 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF WARM AND
HUMID AIR. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS THROUGH TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WARM MOIST AIR ON THE MOVE KEEPS THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FCST THIS PERIOD. AFTERNOON INSTABILITY IS LIMITED TO A KG PER
KG OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON ON ACCOUNT OF MORNING CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION...AS PW VALUES RESIDE MAINLY BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75
INCHES.

OTHERWISE WEAK RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW OUT AHEAD OF A
S/W TROUGH DRIFTING NEWD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING...TO
THE MIDWEST WED MORNING...WILL DRIVE CONVECTION TIMING. ONE RIPPLE
WAS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS TO ERN
KY EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS
MORNING.

THE MAIN S/W TROUGH AXIS THEN LIFTS NEWD AND IS REPLACED
BY ANOTHER...THE LARGER FEATURE EFFECTIVELY MUCH SLOWER THAN THE
SMALLER RIPPLES WITHIN THE FLOW. THE TAIL END OF THE ORIGINAL S/W
TROUGH APPROACHES THE FCST AREA FROM THE W LATE TODAY AND THEN
CROSSES TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO PROGRESS
GENERALLY FROM W TO E ACROSS THE FCST AREA TONIGHT.

THE STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE COUPLED
WITH THE LATE DAY INSTABILITY...COULD LEAD TO STRONG TO DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS IN THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY LATE
TODAY...ESPECIALLY IF ONE IF FAR ENOUGH N AND W TO AVOID MUCH OF
THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE THE HWO MENTION IN LINE WITH
THE NEW SWODY1.

LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT THE STORMS WILL BE
ON THE MOVE...LIMITING ANY HIGH WATER TO THE ACUTE POOR DRAINAGE
VARIETY.

BLENDED IN MOSGUIDE FOR SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGHS ESPECIALLY E
TODAY...STILL AT THE HIGH END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOP. LOWS
TONIGHT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AND ACCEPTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DEEP LAYER S TO SW FLOW WITH ATLANTIC RIDGE TO THE EAST AND
TROUGH TO THE W. A FEW DISTURBANCES IN SW FLOW WILL PROVIDE A
KICKER FOR ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. TIMING THESE FEATURES IS
DIFFICULT...THUS WILL CARRY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH PRESENCE OF DIURNAL HEATING. WILL CONTINUE
MENTION WITH SPC MARGINAL RISK TUE AND WED WHILE ALSO COVERING FOR
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR TEMPS...STAYED MAINLY WITH INHERITED VALUES...WITH A SLIGHT
BLEND TOWARD LATEST GUIDANCE VALUES WITH DID NOT RESULT IN MUCH
CHANGE IN FORECAST TRENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOLLOWED ALONG WITH WPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM. FRONT
CROSSES LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH SOME COOLING AND DRYING NORTH AND
WEST. STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO DROP POPS COMPLETELY OUT OF
THE FORECAST SO LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH FRONT BEING IN THE
AREA. THUS...SUMMER LIKE BROAD BRUSH OF CHC POPS CARRY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID AIR IN PLACE...AND RIPPLE IN THE UPPER LEVEL SW
FLOW...SPELL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS KEEPS
CONFIDENCE AT MEDIUM...WITH UNCERTAINTY ON THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING/MOVING UP FROM THE S EARLY TUE
MORNING...PLUS TIMING NEW ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ARRIVING FROM THE
WSW LATE IN THE DAY TUE.

HAVE CIGS MAINLY ATOP MIXING LAYER 4-5 KFT AND PREVAILING VFR
VSBY. A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR IS LIKELY AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH
TUE MORNING...BUT IFR IS POSSIBLE IN A HEAVIER SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM. AFTER A RELATIVE AFTERNOON LULL...ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE FROM THE W LATE TUE OR TUE EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE STRONG
WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.

SFC FLOW WILL BE LIGHT S TO SE BY NT AND S TO SW BY DAY...WITH
MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION MAY DIFFER FROM
FORECAST.

.AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...LOCAL IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS OVERNIGHT TUE NT
INTO WED MORNING...AND RAIN INDUCED LOW STRATUS AND FOG. IFR MAY
LINGER THROUGH MOUNTAIN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...TRM



000
FXUS61 KRLX 260558
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
158 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS. MID/UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL BRING
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
200 AM UPDATE...
RAISED POPS BANKING ON THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SHRA/TSRA COMING UP
ACROSS THE FCST AREA FROM THE S EARLY TUE MORNING. THIS FOLLOWS
THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS FCST AND REASONING.

PREV DISCN...
WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT IN TRI STATE AROUND HTS...THEN
WILL INCREASE POPS FURTHER EAST AND NORTH TOWARD PREDAWN HOURS...AFTER 08Z.
SO HAVE POPS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH...AS MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A
500 MB VORT MAX PASSING AND LIFTING N DURING THE MORNING...THEN EXITING
NORTHERN COUNTIES AFTER 18Z. THINKING NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM
WSW TOWARD EVENING.  STILL DIFFICULT TO FIGURE COVERAGE OF THE OVERNIGHT
AND MORNING SHOWERS...PLUS WHAT AFFECTS MORNING CONVECTION HAS ON
REDEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DEEP LAYER S TO SW FLOW WITH ATLANTIC RIDGE TO THE EAST AND
TROUGH TO THE W. A FEW DISTURBANCES IN SW FLOW WILL PROVIDE A
KICKER FOR ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. TIMING THESE FEATURES IS
DIFFICULT...THUS WILL CARRY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH PRESENCE OF DIURNAL HEATING. WILL CONTINUE
MENTION WITH SPC MARGINAL RISK TUE AND WED WHILE ALSO COVERING FOR
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR TEMPS...STAYED MAINLY WITH INHERITED VALUES...WITH A SLIGHT
BLEND TOWARD LATEST GUIDANCE VALUES WITH DID NOT RESULT IN MUCH
CHANGE IN FORECAST TRENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOLLOWED ALONG WITH WPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM. FRONT
CROSSES LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH SOME COOLING AND DRYING NORTH AND
WEST. STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO DROP POPS COMPLETELY OUT OF
THE FORECAST SO LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH FRONT BEING IN THE
AREA. THUS...SUMMER LIKE BROAD BRUSH OF CHC POPS CARRY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID AIR IN PLACE...AND RIPPLE IN THE UPPER LEVEL SW
FLOW...SPELL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS KEEPS
CONFIDENCE AT MEDIUM...WITH UNCERTAINTY ON THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING/MOVING UP FROM THE S EARLY TUE
MORNING...PLUS TIMING NEW ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ARRIVING FROM THE
WSW LATE IN THE DAY TUE.

HAVE CIGS MAINLY ATOP MIXING LAYER 4-5 KFT AND PREVAILING VFR
VSBY. A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR IS LIKELY AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH
TUE MORNING...BUT IFR IS POSSIBLE IN A HEAVIER SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM. AFTER A RELATIVE AFTERNOON LULL...ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE FROM THE W LATE TUE OR TUE EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE STRONG
WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.

SFC FLOW WILL BE LIGHT S TO SE BY NT AND S TO SW BY DAY...WITH
MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION MAY DIFFER FROM
FORECAST.

.AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...LOCAL IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS OVERNIGHT TUE NT
INTO WED MORNING...AND RAIN INDUCED LOW STRATUS AND FOG. IFR MAY
LINGER THROUGH MOUNTAIN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB/TRM
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...TRM




000
FXUS61 KRLX 260558
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
158 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS. MID/UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL BRING
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
200 AM UPDATE...
RAISED POPS BANKING ON THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SHRA/TSRA COMING UP
ACROSS THE FCST AREA FROM THE S EARLY TUE MORNING. THIS FOLLOWS
THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS FCST AND REASONING.

PREV DISCN...
WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT IN TRI STATE AROUND HTS...THEN
WILL INCREASE POPS FURTHER EAST AND NORTH TOWARD PREDAWN HOURS...AFTER 08Z.
SO HAVE POPS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH...AS MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A
500 MB VORT MAX PASSING AND LIFTING N DURING THE MORNING...THEN EXITING
NORTHERN COUNTIES AFTER 18Z. THINKING NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM
WSW TOWARD EVENING.  STILL DIFFICULT TO FIGURE COVERAGE OF THE OVERNIGHT
AND MORNING SHOWERS...PLUS WHAT AFFECTS MORNING CONVECTION HAS ON
REDEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DEEP LAYER S TO SW FLOW WITH ATLANTIC RIDGE TO THE EAST AND
TROUGH TO THE W. A FEW DISTURBANCES IN SW FLOW WILL PROVIDE A
KICKER FOR ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. TIMING THESE FEATURES IS
DIFFICULT...THUS WILL CARRY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH PRESENCE OF DIURNAL HEATING. WILL CONTINUE
MENTION WITH SPC MARGINAL RISK TUE AND WED WHILE ALSO COVERING FOR
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR TEMPS...STAYED MAINLY WITH INHERITED VALUES...WITH A SLIGHT
BLEND TOWARD LATEST GUIDANCE VALUES WITH DID NOT RESULT IN MUCH
CHANGE IN FORECAST TRENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOLLOWED ALONG WITH WPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM. FRONT
CROSSES LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH SOME COOLING AND DRYING NORTH AND
WEST. STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO DROP POPS COMPLETELY OUT OF
THE FORECAST SO LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH FRONT BEING IN THE
AREA. THUS...SUMMER LIKE BROAD BRUSH OF CHC POPS CARRY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID AIR IN PLACE...AND RIPPLE IN THE UPPER LEVEL SW
FLOW...SPELL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS KEEPS
CONFIDENCE AT MEDIUM...WITH UNCERTAINTY ON THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING/MOVING UP FROM THE S EARLY TUE
MORNING...PLUS TIMING NEW ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ARRIVING FROM THE
WSW LATE IN THE DAY TUE.

HAVE CIGS MAINLY ATOP MIXING LAYER 4-5 KFT AND PREVAILING VFR
VSBY. A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR IS LIKELY AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH
TUE MORNING...BUT IFR IS POSSIBLE IN A HEAVIER SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM. AFTER A RELATIVE AFTERNOON LULL...ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE FROM THE W LATE TUE OR TUE EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE STRONG
WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.

SFC FLOW WILL BE LIGHT S TO SE BY NT AND S TO SW BY DAY...WITH
MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION MAY DIFFER FROM
FORECAST.

.AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...LOCAL IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS OVERNIGHT TUE NT
INTO WED MORNING...AND RAIN INDUCED LOW STRATUS AND FOG. IFR MAY
LINGER THROUGH MOUNTAIN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB/TRM
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...TRM



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