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000
FXUS61 KRLX 301838
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
238 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level ridge rebuilds for mid week. Cold front arrives
Thursday with showers and storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Have a discreet little band of moisture that has just traversed
the Ohio River...allowing convection to build just enough to
support a few isolated showers/thunderstorms. Band of moisture
shows up really well in the 700-600mb layer...where this layer is
bone dry elsewhere across the CWA. Convection also going up over
the mountains early this afternoon...but again...looking at
isolated to scattered activity.

Clearing tonight with developing valley fog likely. Dewpoints down
in the lower 60s will allow for temperatures to drop as low...with
50s in the higher elevations.

Ridging aloft returns...with weak disturbances within. Mid levels
will still be very dry...less some convective feedback seen on the
NAM over the mountains...which should limit any realized
shower/thunderstorm activity. Did increase the coverage of the low
POPS tomorrow...but still confine them generally to the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Much of short term periods will feature mainly tranquil wx. Upper
level heights will quickly build back over the region Tuesday into
Wednesday before height falls work back in with the approach of
the next wx maker. As for Tuesday and Wednesday...kept isolated
mention of popup shra/tsra over portions of the northern
mountains...otherwise rolling with a dry and warm forecast. I
suspect there will be the daily morning does of dense river valley
fog to contend with.

As mentioned above...an amplifying trof will move into the upper
Great Lakes Wednesday night into Thursday. This will bring a cold
front thru long about Thursday. This will bring a good chance of
shra/tsra to the area and have coded up pops into the likely
range.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
230 AM UPDATE...

Model consensus is for a deeper push of drier air into the area
later Friday and Saturday. Updated pops to reflect this drier
trend taking hold.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

Another cold front approaches from the west Friday morning. Kept
high chance PoPs lowlands and likely PoPs over elevations of 3000
feet and higher.

Current track of remnants of tropical storm Bonnie approach from
the southeast Thursday through Friday. Attm, seems that the
showers will stay over the eastern mountains Wednesday and
Wednesday night. An upper trough moves east across the Great Lakes
region on Sunday. This second system is strong enough to drive a
weak front across the area Sunday night and Monday morning.

Went with a combination of the super blend and the all blend
guidance for temperatures through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The mid levels of the atmosphere are very dry...which is a main
reason why the cumulus formation during heating today does not
have much vertical extent to it. There are low chances of showers
or an isolated thunderstorm from about CKB to CRW and east through
00Z Tuesday...but not high enough for prevailing or VCTS/CB.
Valley fog to settle in to many locations tonight...and relied
heavily on LAMP guidance for this.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of valley fog tonight may vary. May
need brief MVFR in SHRA through 00Z Tuesday.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
River valley IFR fog possible early Tuesday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JW/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...ARJ/30
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS61 KRLX 301731
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
131 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak cool front crosses today. Upper level ridge rebuilds for mid
week. Cold front arrives Thursday with showers and storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1000 AM update...
No changes this morning.

Previous discussion...
The line of showers and thunderstorms that moved across Ohio and
Northern Kentucky overnight...is dissipating as it gets to the
Ohio River early this morning. Expect little will survive east of
the Ohio River before it dissipates by dawn. The very weak cool
front that generated the convection...identified mainly by lower
dewpoints behind it...is still over western Ohio and western
Kentucky early this morning. However...this front will act in a
typical summer time fashion...where the upper support and deeper
moisture has continued to track east ahead of the surface front.
We expect that after any early morning fog dissipates...and with
diurnal heating later this morning and afternoon...the surface
front will literally jump eastward across the area as drier air
aloft mixes down. The front will likely jump through our western
zones around mid morning...through central WV by early
afternoon...and through the mountains by late afternoon...with
winds turning northwesterly and bringing some drier air in behind
the front. With the drying out process aloft ahead of the
front...we expect just mainly widely scattered showers and perhaps
a thunderstorm to work eastward with the front. Will confine most
pops with the front to the east of the Ohio River today...with
best chance in the mountains in the afternoon heat.
Otherwise...cold advection is lacking behind this front...and with
more sunshine today...temperatures will actually be at least a few
degrees warmer than yesterday...in the lower to mid 80s. So going
on the high end of guidance.

For tonight...look for clearing skies and decreasing winds to
enhance radiational cooling in the drier air...so temperatures
will actually be cooler tonight. look for lows ranging from the
upper 50s north to the lower 60s south with some late night fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Much of short term periods will feature mainly tranquil wx. Upper
level heights will quickly build back over the region Tuesday into
Wednesday before height falls work back in with the approach of
the next wx maker. As for Tuesday and Wednesday...kept isolated
mention of popup shra/tsra over portions of the northern
mountains...otherwise rolling with a dry and warm forecast. I
suspect there will be the daily morning does of dense river valley
fog to contend with.

As mentioned above...an amplifying trof will move into the upper
Great Lakes Wednesday night into Thursday. This will bring a cold
front thru long about Thursday. This will bring a good chance of
shra/tsra to the area and have coded up pops into the likely
range.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
230 AM UPDATE...

Model consensus is for a deeper push of drier air into the area
later Friday and Saturday. Updated pops to reflect this drier
trend taking hold.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

Another cold front approaches from the west Friday morning. Kept
high chance PoPs lowlands and likely PoPs over elevations of 3000
feet and higher.

Current track of remnants of tropical storm Bonnie approach from
the southeast Thursday through Friday. Attm, seems that the
showers will stay over the eastern mountains Wednesday and
Wednesday night. An upper trough moves east across the Great Lakes
region on Sunday. This second system is strong enough to drive a
weak front across the area Sunday night and Monday morning.

Went with a combination of the super blend and the all blend
guidance for temperatures through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The mid levels of the atmosphere are very dry...which is a main
reason why the cumulus formation during heating today does not
have much vertical extent to it. There are low chances of showers
or an isolated thunderstorm from about CKB to CRW and east through
00Z Tuesday...but not high enough for prevailing or VCTS/CB.
Valley fog to settle in to many locations tonight...and relied
heavily on LAMP guidance for this.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of valley fog tonight may vary. May
need brief MVFR in SHRA through 00Z Tuesday.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
River valley IFR fog possible early Tuesday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV/26
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...ARJ/30
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS61 KRLX 300827
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
427 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak cool front crosses today. Upper level ridge rebuilds for mid
week. Cold front arrives Thursday with showers and storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The line of showers and thunderstorms that moved across Ohio and
Northern Kentucky overnight...is dissipating as it gets to the
Ohio River early this morning. Expect little will survive east of
the Ohio River before it dissipates by dawn. The very weak cool
front that generated the convection...identified mainly by lower
dewpoints behind it...is still over western Ohio and western
Kentucky early this morning. However...this front will act in a
typical summer time fashion...where the upper support and deeper
moisture has continued to track east ahead of the surface front.
We expect that after any early morning fog dissipates...and with
diurnal heating later this morning and afternoon...the surface
front will literally jump eastward across the area as drier air
aloft mixes down. The front will likely jump through our western
zones around mid morning...through central WV by early
afternoon...and through the mountains by late afternoon...with
winds turning northwesterly and bringing some drier air in behind
the front. With the drying out process aloft ahead of the
front...we expect just mainly widely scattered showers and perhaps
a thunderstorm to work eastward with the front. Will confine most
pops with the front to the east of the Ohio River today...with
best chance in the mountains in the afternoon heat.
Otherwise...cold advection is lacking behind this front...and with
more sunshine today...temperatures will actually be at least a few
degrees warmer than yesterday...in the lower to mid 80s. So going
on the high end of guidance.

For tonight...look for clearing skies and decreasing winds to
enhance radiational cooling in the drier air...so temperatures
will actually be cooler tonight. look for lows ranging from the
upper 50s north to the lower 60s south with some late night fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Much of short term periods will feature mainly tranquil wx. Upper
level heights will quickly build back over the region Tuesday into
Wednesday before height falls work back in with the approach of
the next wx maker. As for Tuesday and Wednesday...kept isolated
mention of popup shra/tsra over portions of the northern
mountains...otherwise rolling with a dry and warm forecast. I
suspect there will be the daily morning does of dense river valley
fog to contend with.

As mentioned above...an amplifying trof will move into the upper
Great Lakes Wednesday night into Thursday. This will bring a cold
front thru long about Thursday. This will bring a good chance of
shra/tsra to the area and have coded up pops into the likely
range.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
230 AM UPDATE...

Model consensus is for a deeper push of drier air into the area
later Friday and Saturday. Updated pops to reflect this drier
trend taking hold.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

Another cold front approaches from the west Friday morning. Kept
high chance PoPs lowlands and likely PoPs over elevations of 3000
feet and higher.

Current track of remnants of tropical storm Bonnie approach from
the southeast Thursday through Friday. Attm, seems that the
showers will stay over the eastern mountains Wednesday and
Wednesday night. An upper trough moves east across the Great Lakes
region on Sunday. This second system is strong enough to drive a
weak front across the area Sunday night and Monday morning.

Went with a combination of the super blend and the all blend
guidance for temperatures through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
08Z Monday thru 06Z Tuesday..

0821Z correction to CRW to maintain LIFR early this morning.

0812Z update. Except for LIFR fog at PKB and CKB...have mostly
MVFR fog at remaining major terminals for early this morning.

Previous discussion...
Til 12Z Monday. Quite variable conditions. Showers and isolated
thunder will be confined to northeast Kentucky...extreme southeast
Ohio and far southwest WV...affecting HTS before dissipating
around 09z. Because of the showers or variable cloud cover...look
for lifr fog to affect all the major terminals overnight except at
BKW. Most of the fog will be river valley fog.

After 12z...fog mixes out by 14z. Cold front crossing the area
during the day may combine with diurnal heating to generate a few
showers or perhaps a thunderstorm after 16z. These will be east
of the Ohio river and not enough coverage to go with more than
VCTS in CRW...CKB...EKN...BKW. Otherwise...VFR sct-bkn 4000-6000
feet agl outside of any convection. light and variable winds will
become northwest behind the front at 5 to 8 kts.

After 00Z basically vfr mostly clear. Any fog redevelopment will
likely be after 06z. Winds will again drop off with loss of
heating.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low overnight. Medium Monday.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Areal coverage and intensity of fog this
morning may vary due to any showers or cloud cover.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    MON 05/30/16
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
River valley IFR fog possible early Tuesday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...ARJ/30
AVIATION...JMV




000
FXUS61 KRLX 300642
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
242 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak cool front crosses today. Upper level ridge rebuilds for mid
week. Cold front arrives Thursday with showers and storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1000 pm update...Showers and thunderstorms out ahead of a cold
front are starting to push into the Ohio Valley. Expecting this
line to follow instability axis and head southeastward through
Jackson County Ohio and then into Gallia County over the next one
to two hours. The cells will continue to weaken and latest meso
guidance has the line fizzle out shortly after passing the Ohio
Valley. I have updated PoP to reflect this trend over the next few
hours.

730 pm update...Skies are clearing to the west so I went ahead and
updated sky cover based on current satellite and trends.

545 pm update...Forecast remains mostly on track. Just made minor
changes to temperatures based on current observations and trends.
Also went ahead and updated PoP based on current precipitation
coverage on RADAR.

Previous Discussion...
Unsettled weather across the CWA today...as moisture from
tropical depression Bonnie overspreads the mountainous
counties...and scattered thunderstorms have formed across parts of
southeast Ohio...northeast Kentucky...and adjacent WV counties as
a shortwave trough approaches from the west. Overall...much of the
moisture associated with TD Bonnie is struggling to reach the
ground on western side of the mountains...with thunderstorms
across western zones slow moving and producing brief heavy
downpours. Have continued the trend with thunder in the western
zones today...and showers across the east associated with Bonnie.

Showers...and perhaps an isold thunderstorm will continue
tonight...mainly across southeast Ohio and adjacent KY and WV
counties...as a surface cold front...entering Indiana at
18Z...moves east into the region. However...activity will be
rather limited due to the late arrival of the front.

Drier...and cooler weather across much of the area on
Monday...although a slight chance for showers will still exist
across the east depending on the timing/exit of the front.

Next concern for tonight is whether or not fog will form. At this
point...thinking best bet/location for fog development is across
the north and west...where some partial clearing late tonight is
possible. Still...patchy fog development cannot be totally ruled
out in other locations...particularly where rain occurs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Much of short term periods will feature mainly tranquil wx. Upper
level heights will quickly build back over the region Tuesday into
Wednesday before height falls work back in with the approach of
the next wx maker. As for Tuesday and Wednesday...kept isolated
mention of popup shra/tsra over portions of the northern
mountains...otherwise rolling with a dry and warm forecast. I
suspect there will be the daily morning does of dense river valley
fog to contend with.

As mentioned above...an amplifying trof will move into the upper
Great Lakes Wednesday night into Thursday. This will bring a cold
front thru long about Thursday. This will bring a good chance of
shra/tsra to the area and have coded up pops into the likely
range.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
230 AM UPDATE...

Model consensus is for a deeper push of drier air into the area
later Friday and Saturday. Updated pops to reflect this drier
trend taking hold.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

Another cold front approaches from the west Friday morning. Kept
high chance PoPs lowlands and likely PoPs over elevations of 3000
feet and higher.

Current track of remnants of tropical storm Bonnie approach from
the southeast Thursday through Friday. Attm, seems that the
showers will stay over the eastern mountains Wednesday and
Wednesday night. An upper trough moves east across the Great Lakes
region on Sunday. This second system is strong enough to drive a
weak front across the area Sunday night and Monday morning.

Went with a combination of the super blend and the all blend
guidance for temperatures through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z Monday thru 06Z Tuesday...
Til 12Z Monday. Quite variable conditions. Showers and isolated
thunder will be confined to northeast Kentucky...extreme southeast
Ohio and far southwest WV...affecting HTS before dissipating
around 09z. Because of the showers or variable cloud cover...look
for lifr fog to affect all the major terminals overnight except at BKW.
Most of the fog will be river valley fog.

After 12z...fog mixes out by 14z. Cold front crossing the area
during the day may combine with diurnal heating to generate a few
showers or perhaps a thunderstorm after 16z. These will be east
of the Ohio river and not enough coverage to go with more than
VCTS in CRW...CKB...EKN...BKW. Otherwise...VFR sct-bkn 4000-6000
feet agl outside of any convection. light and variable winds will
become northwest behind the front at 5 to 8 kts.

After 00Z basically vfr mostly clear. Any fog redevelopment will
likely be after 06z. Winds will again drop off with loss of
heating.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low overnight. Medium Monday.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Areal coverage and intensity of fog this
morning may vary due to any showers or cloud cover.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              MON 05/30/16
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
River valley IFR fog possible early Tuesday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...MPK/SL
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...ARJ/30
AVIATION...JMV




000
FXUS61 KRLX 292349
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
749 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Moist southeast flow will raise shower chance today in the
mountains. Upper level ridge rebuilds for mid week. cold front
arrives thursday with showers and cooler air.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
730 pm update...Skies are clearing to the west so I went ahead and
updated sky cover based on current satellite and trends.

545 pm update...Forecast remains mostly on track. Just made minor
changes to temperatures based on current observations and trends.
Also went ahead and updated PoP based on current precipitation
coverage on RADAR.

Previous Discussion...
Unsettled weather across the CWA today...as moisture from
tropical depression Bonnie overspreads the mountainous
counties...and scattered thunderstorms have formed across parts of
southeast Ohio...northeast Kentucky...and adjacent WV counties as
a shortwave trough approaches from the west. Overall...much of the
moisture associated with TD Bonnie is struggling to reach the
ground on western side of the mountains...with thunderstorms
across western zones slow moving and producing brief heavy
downpours. Have continued the trend with thunder in the western
zones today...and showers across the east associated with Bonnie.

Showers...and perhaps an isold thunderstorm will continue
tonight...mainly across southeast Ohio and adjacent KY and WV
counties...as a surface cold front...entering Indiana at
18Z...moves east into the region. However...activity will be
rather limited due to the late arrival of the front.

Drier...and cooler weather across much of the area on
Monday...although a slight chance for showers will still exist
across the east depending on the timing/exit of the front.

Next concern for tonight is whether or not fog will form. At this
point...thinking best bet/location for fog development is across
the north and west...where some partial clearing late tonight is
possible. Still...patchy fog development cannot be totally ruled
out in other locations...particularly where rain occurs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Remnants of tropical storm Bonnie is expected to be over the
Carolinas by Tuesday 12z. Meanwhile, a cool front with limited
moisture approaches from the northwest. The area will be under the
influence of a small high pressure maintaining dry weather until
Tuesday night. Small chance for showers appears along the
mountains as moisture from the tropical system gets squeeze across
the mountains.

the front crosses to the south by 12z Wednesday. The diurnal
heating and near calm flow will keep low chance for showers or
storms Wednesday and Wednesday night along the mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Another cold front approaches from the west Friday morning. Kept
high chance PoPs lowlands and likely PoPs over elevations of 3000
feet and higher.

Current track of remnants of tropical storm Bonnie approach from
the southeast Thursday through Friday. Attm, seems that the
showers will stay over the eastern mountains Wednesday and
Wednesday night. An upper trough moves east across the Great Lakes
region on Sunday. This second system is strong enough to drive a
weak front across the area Sunday night and Monday morning.

Went with a combination of the super blend and the all blend
guidance for temperatures through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Tricky forecast overnight as showers and thunderstorms die off and
clouds thin out. Very high dewpoints are still stretched across
the area and now with earlier rainfall in places such as
PKB...CKB...and EKN...the environment is prime for fog
development.

Current thinking is that PKB will be first to go down...however
this will all depend on whether or not a line of showers and
storms to the west in Ohio will fall apart before they reach PKB.
Current thinking is that they will die out right before or near the
Ohio Valley...so have kept SCT clouds at PKB for now and bring in
MVFR conditions by 230Z with fog starting to develop. All other
sites should see fog development hold off until the early morning
hours...while BKW should escape any fog tonight and remain VFR.

Definitely some uncertainty on how low visibility will drop off.
Where there was rainfall earlier...I am much more confident that
IFR conditions will occur...but not as confident at HTS or CRW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Where and when fog develops tonight is in
question. Also...how dense the fog will become is also a low
confidence forecast at this time.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EDT 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...MPK/SL
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MPK




000
FXUS61 KRLX 291258
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
858 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Moist southeast flow will raise shower chance today in the
mountains. Upper level ridge rebuilds for mid week. cold front
arrives thursday with showers and cooler air.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
9 AM update...
added slight chance of thunder across southeast Ohio and northeast
KY this morning. Otherwise...no changes were necessary in the
update.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

Mainly high clouds will continue to overspread the area into the
morning hours as the upper trof entrains some upper level moisture
from Bonnie. Models agree on breaking off a piece of the mid
level energy associated with Bonnie and sending it northward into
NC/VA today...keeping the greatest coverage of shra just to the
east of the mountains. Elected to cap pops in the 50ish range in
the Northern mountains for this reason. Elsewhere it is a bit
difficult to determine coverage of any shra/tsra today as the area
gets the squeeze play between the piece of Bonnie and the
approaching upper level trof. Near term hi res models continue to
generate some early morning shra along the mid level moisture
axis that has remained over KY/OH the past few days. This axis
shifts eastward across E KY/E OH this morning and into WV this
aftn as the s/w trof pivots into the upper OH Valley. Have raised
pops a bit from previous fcst across SE OH/NE KY/W WV midday to
early aftn as a result...still capping in the chance category.
With an abundance of high clouds overhead...thinking thunder
chances will be tempered...especially across the mountains. Highs
today should be a good 5 degrees lower with the mid/high level
clouds overhead.

For tonight the lagging cold front looks to enter the area with
little fanfare other than a wind shift and mainly aloft.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
With the remnants of the tropical system and its rich moisture
staying east of our area...the weak cool front forecast by the
models to move across Monday morning will not have much moisture
to work with. Lack of upper support and moisture...combined with
unfavorable time of day...will result in essentially a dry front
as it moves across Monday. Only in the mountains do we hang onto
very low pops Monday...where there may be some last minute heating
and slightly better moisture before the front moves across. Behind
the front...lack of cold advection and increased sunshine should
boost temperatures into the 80s Monday. Thereafter...high
pressure will bring dry weather Tuesday and Wednesday. High
temperatures will continue in the 80s...as continued sunshine
helps to boost temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Another cold front approaches from the west Thursday can be enhanced
by afternoon heating and associated convection. The area will remain
under the warm sector of the next low/cold front system Thursday and
Friday. Increase PoPs higher than 50 percent and likely PoPs over
elevations of 3000 feet and higher.

A tropical storm could become sub tropical as it exit the mid
Atlantic states northeast over the off shore waters. The general
track northwestward to the South Carolina coast this weekend...and
then just sits there through early next week...as the supporting
upper trough is sheared north and northeast thru the Mid Atlantic
states on Sunday. This shearing out of the upper trough on Sunday is
caused by the current Plains upper low opening up and moving east
across the Great Lakes. This second system is strong enough to drive
a weak front across the area Sunday night and Monday morning.

Went with a combination of the super blend and the all blend
guidance for temperatures through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High clouds will continue to overspread the area from the SW into
the morning hours. As a result dense fog should be confined to the
Northern mountain valleys to include KEKN. Appears a brief window
of mainly MVFR fog for KPKB/KHTS before the high clouds thicken
by 09z. Did put a tempo IFR at KPKB until 08z given recent trends.

Isolate showers this morning are possible across E OH/NE KY as mid
level moisture axis shifts E with the approaching S/W trof.
Thinking they will remain W of KHTS/KPKB this morning before
regenerating with heating midday over the area. Elected to roll
with VCTS at aforementioned sites as well as KCRW for a few hours
this aftn. Bulk of the shra with loosely associated energy with
Bonnie will remain E of the mountains today...but still chances
high enough to give a VCSH mention at KEKN. Thunder chances look
minimal there.

The S/W trof pivots thru the area tonight with the lagging cold
front crossing overnight with little fanfare other than a wind
shift to NW...mainly aloft. There may be some dense river valley
fog forming late tonight should enough clearing take place.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent and coverage of shra and tsra remains
in question today.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/30
NEAR TERM...SL/30
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...30




000
FXUS61 KRLX 290030
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
826 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Moist southeast flow will raise shower chance Sunday in the
mountains. Upper level ridge rebuilds next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Based on current radar trends and meso model trends...will raise
pops in northeastern West Virginia this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /2 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Afternoon heating, precipitable water around 1.25 and some buoyancy
will keep low chance pops sunday night. Although low level moisture
decreases some, there will be enough instability and moisture to
keep isolated showers or storms on Monday. Meanwhile, a cold front
approaches from the west bringing better chance for showers or
storms.

The GFS and ECMWF show decreasing QPF Sunday night and early Monday.
While the GFS show afternoon convection, the ECMWF keeps light
showers for the whole day Monday. Went with a compromise between
these two models coding chance PoPs.

Models are in agreement bringing dry conditions Tuesday and
Wednesday with mostly clear skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Another cold front approaches from the west Thursday can be enhanced
by afternoon heating and associated convection. The area will remain
under the warm sector of the next low/cold front system Thursday and
Friday. Increase PoPs higher than 50 percent and likely PoPs over
elevations of 3000 feet and higher.

A tropical storm could become sub tropical as it exit the mid
Atlantic states northeast over the off shore waters. The general
track northwestward to the South Carolina coast this weekend...and
then just sits there through early next week...as the supporting
upper trough is sheared north and northeast thru the Mid Atlantic
states on Sunday. This shearing out of the upper trough on Sunday is
caused by the current Plains upper low opening up and moving east
across the Great Lakes. This second system is strong enough to drive
a weak front across the area Sunday night and Monday morning.

Went with a combination of the super blend and the all blend
guidance for temperatures through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Expect VFR conditions this evening outside of a couple of showers.
Some fog may form in protected mountain valleys late tonight...but
confidence is not high due to higher clouds moving in later tonight.
Moisture from the tropical system along the east coast will skirt
eastern portions of the area on Sunday. All area could see some
showers and/or thunderstorms.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent and coverage of fog late tonight could
vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SUN 05/29/16
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...RPY




000
FXUS61 KRLX 282302
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
652 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Moist southeast flow will raise shower chance Sunday in the
mountains. Upper level ridge rebuilds next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Overall...no significant changes were necessary to the previous
forecast. As expected...scattered showers and thunderstorms have started
to develop across Ohio...and am expecting scattered showers and
thunderstorms to develop across southeast Ohio...NE KY...and
adjacent WV counties this afternoon...as upper disturbances moving
north out ahead of an approaching upper trough affect the area.
In addition...isolated convection has developed across the northern
mountains just outside the CWA due to differential heating...and
will maintain a slight chance across northern mountain zones this
afternoon. As with yesterday...overall flow is light...and storms
will be slow to move and contain heavy downpours.

Bulk of convection will briefly die down
tonight...however...things will ramp up again towards morning...as
a combination of moisture from a tropical depression...which will
move inland towards South Carolina...and upper trough moves in
from the west. Models seem to be backing off a bit on how much
moisture and energy will actually make it into our CWA from the
tropical depression...and elected to back off the pops a bit
tomorrow across the east as a result. Still...looking at overall higher
pops across the east...with lower pops across the central and
western counties as upper trough pushes east into region.

With the expected cloud cover and shower activity on
Sunday...temperatures will be several degrees cooler than in
recent days...particularly across the east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Afternoon heating, precipitable water around 1.25 and some buoyancy
will keep low chance pops sunday night. Although low level moisture
decreases some, there will be enough instability and moisture to
keep isolated showers or storms on Monday. Meanwhile, a cold front
approaches from the west bringing better chance for showers or
storms.

The GFS and ECMWF show decreasing QPF Sunday night and early Monday.
While the GFS show afternoon convection, the ECMWF keeps light
showers for the whole day Monday. Went with a compromise between
these two models coding chance PoPs.

Models are in agreement bringing dry conditions Tuesday and
Wednesday with mostly clear skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Another cold front approaches from the west Thursday can be enhanced
by afternoon heating and associated convection. The area will remain
under the warm sector of the next low/cold front system Thursday and
Friday. Increase PoPs higher than 50 percent and likely PoPs over
elevations of 3000 feet and higher.

A tropical storm could become sub tropical as it exit the mid
Atlantic states northeast over the off shore waters. The general
track northwestward to the South Carolina coast this weekend...and
then just sits there through early next week...as the supporting
upper trough is sheared north and northeast thru the Mid Atlantic
states on Sunday. This shearing out of the upper trough on Sunday is
caused by the current Plains upper low opening up and moving east
across the Great Lakes. This second system is strong enough to drive
a weak front across the area Sunday night and Monday morning.

Went with a combination of the super blend and the all blend
guidance for temperatures through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Expect VFR conditions this evening outside of a couple of showers.
Some fog may form in protected mountain valleys late tonight...but
confidence is not high due to higher clouds moving in later tonight.
Moisture from the tropical system along the east coast will skirt
eastern portions of the area on Sunday. All area could see some
showers and/or thunderstorms.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent and coverage of fog late tonight could
vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EDT 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...RPY




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