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000
FXUS61 KRLX 260209
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1009 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES
SUNDAY. WARMER EARLY NEXT WEEK. COLD FRONTS CROSS EARLY WEDNESDAY
AND AGAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1000 PM UPDATE... COLD FRONT FINALLY MAKING IT INTO CWA...WITH
DEWPOINTS IN SE OHIO STARTING TO DROP. SATELLITE SHOWING SOME
CLOUDS DEVELOPING/MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT LOWERED
POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS BASED ON NEW SREF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FAST MOVING COLD FRONT SCOOTS ACROSS INTO
THIS EVENING. KEPT SCHC POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BUT OTHERWISE A
DRY FROPA. SOME POST FRONTAL LOW STRATUS MAY TRY TO LINGER ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND S COAL FIELDS FOR A TIME TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT
DRY AIR WILL WIN OUT FOR MOST RESULTING IN CLEARING THIS EVENING.

A FANTASTIC SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP WITH NARY A CLOUD IN THE SKY AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE ONLY REAL CHANGE TO THE FORECAST COMES AT THE FAR END AND HAVE
GONE AHEAD AND SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. KEEP LIKELIES IN PERRY COUNTY...BUT TRIM THE
EXTENT OF ANY POPS TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE NAM HAS SLOWED IT DOWN A
TOUCH AND DO NOT TRUST THE FASTER GFS IN THESE SITUATIONS.

OTHERWISE...A DR WARM FRONT COMES THROUGH MONDAY...PUSHING LOWLAND
TEMPERATURE READINGS TOWARDS THE 80 DEGREE MARK. NORTHERN ZONES
TOWARDS THE MOUNTAINS MAY HAVE TROUBLE KEEPING THAT PACE...SUCH AS
AT CKB...SO EXPECT A BIT OF A GRADIENT IN THE MAX TEMPERATURES EAST
OF I-79. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT AROUND 17C THAT DAY.

ON TUESDAY...TAKE THE MAX TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES OVER
THE WESTERN ZONES WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY.
OVERALL...EXPECT MONDAY TO BE THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS WEST OF
I-79 AND TUESDAY TO BE THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS EAST OF I-79.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MEAN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BRINGS A SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS THRU...EACH FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES UNDER CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL BRING TEMPERATURES TO WELL BELOW NORMAL BY
FRIDAY. PRECIP WISE...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATING...MOISTURE
RETURN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF THESE FRONTS WILL BE LIMITED
WITH CORRESPONDINGLY LIGHT QPF. FIRST FRONT THIS PERIOD USES THE
SLOWER MODELS OVER THE FASTER GFS AND WILL COME ACROSS EARLY
WEDNESDAY...PRECEDED BY SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER FRONT WILL COME ACROSS FRIDAY WITH EVEN LESS
MOISTURE AVAILABLE...SO ANY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED.
TEMPERATURES WILL GET PROGRESSIVELY COOLER THIS PERIOD. WE WILL
START WITH LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND ONLY NEAR 50 BY FRIDAY.
LOWS WILL START IN THE LOWER 50S TUESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE 30S BY
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. COULD GET A BRIEF GUST OF 20KTS AS THE FRONT PASSES. SATELLITE
SHOWS CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY BROKEN UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS.
HOWEVER...COULD STILL SEE SOME OF MVFR CIGS IN THE EASTERN
LOWLANDS AND MOUNTAINS INTO TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL HAVE
SOME FLOW TO KEEP THINGS STIRRED UP...AND LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CIG CHANGES MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  SUN 10/26/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/30/26
NEAR TERM...MZ/30
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 252317
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
717 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES
SUNDAY. WARMER EARLY NEXT WEEK. COLD FRONTS CROSS EARLY WEDNESDAY
AND AGAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
700 PM UPDATE...REDUCED CLOUDS A BIT...ALTHOUGH WITH FRONT STILL
WEST...CONTINUED LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN LOWLANDS AND
MOUNTAINS SEVERAL MORE HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FAST MOVING COLD FRONT SCOOTS ACROSS INTO
THIS EVENING. KEPT SCHC POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BUT OTHERWISE A
DRY FROPA. SOME POST FRONTAL LOW STRATUS MAY TRY TO LINGER ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND S COAL FIELDS FOR A TIME TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT
DRY AIR WILL WIN OUT FOR MOST RESULTING IN CLEARING THIS EVENING.

A FANTASTIC SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP WITH NARY A CLOUD IN THE SKY AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE ONLY REAL CHANGE TO THE FORECAST COMES AT THE FAR END AND HAVE
GONE AHEAD AND SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. KEEP LIKELIES IN PERRY COUNTY...BUT TRIM THE
EXTENT OF ANY POPS TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE NAM HAS SLOWED IT DOWN A
TOUCH AND DO NOT TRUST THE FASTER GFS IN THESE SITUATIONS.

OTHERWISE...A DR WARM FRONT COMES THROUGH MONDAY...PUSHING LOWLAND
TEMPERATURE READINGS TOWARDS THE 80 DEGREE MARK. NORTHERN ZONES
TOWARDS THE MOUNTAINS MAY HAVE TROUBLE KEEPING THAT PACE...SUCH AS
AT CKB...SO EXPECT A BIT OF A GRADIENT IN THE MAX TEMPERATURES EAST
OF I-79. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT AROUND 17C THAT DAY.

ON TUESDAY...TAKE THE MAX TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES OVER
THE WESTERN ZONES WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY.
OVERALL...EXPECT MONDAY TO BE THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS WEST OF
I-79 AND TUESDAY TO BE THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS EAST OF I-79.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MEAN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BRINGS A SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS THRU...EACH FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES UNDER CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL BRING TEMPERATURES TO WELL BELOW NORMAL BY
FRIDAY. PRECIP WISE...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATING...MOISTURE
RETURN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF THESE FRONTS WILL BE LIMITED
WITH CORRESPONDINGLY LIGHT QPF. FIRST FRONT THIS PERIOD USES THE
SLOWER MODELS OVER THE FASTER GFS AND WILL COME ACROSS EARLY
WEDNESDAY...PRECEDED BY SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER FRONT WILL COME ACROSS FRIDAY WITH EVEN LESS
MOISTURE AVAILABLE...SO ANY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED.
TEMPERATURES WILL GET PROGRESSIVELY COOLER THIS PERIOD. WE WILL
START WITH LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND ONLY NEAR 50 BY FRIDAY.
LOWS WILL START IN THE LOWER 50S TUESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE 30S BY
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. COULD GET A BRIEF GUST OF 20KTS AS THE FRONT PASSES. SATELLITE
SHOWS CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY BROKEN UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS.
HOWEVER...EXPECT SOME OF THE MVFR CIGS TO LINGER IN THE EASTERN
LOWLANDS AND MOUNTAINS INTO TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL HAVE
SOME FLOW TO KEEP THINGS STIRRED UP...AND LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CIG CHANGES MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/30/26
NEAR TERM...MZ/30
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 251913
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
242 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES
SUNDAY. WARMER EARLY NEXT WEEK. COLD FRONTS CROSS EARLY WEDNESDAY
AND AGAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT SCOOTS ACROSS INTO THIS EVENING. KEPT SCHC
POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BUT OTHERWISE A DRY FROPA. SOME POST
FRONTAL LOW STRATUS MAY TRY TO LINGER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND S
COAL FIELDS FOR A TIME TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT DRY AIR WILL WIN OUT
FOR MOST RESULTING IN CLEARING THIS EVENING.

A FANTASTIC SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP WITH NARY A CLOUD IN THE SKY AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE ONLY REAL CHANGE TO THE FORECAST COMES AT THE FAR END AND HAVE
GONE AHEAD AND SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. KEEP LIKELIES IN PERRY COUNTY...BUT TRIM THE
EXTENT OF ANY POPS TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE NAM HAS SLOWED IT DOWN A
TOUCH AND DO NOT TRUST THE FASTER GFS IN THESE SITUATIONS.

OTHERWISE...A DR WARM FRONT COMES THROUGH MONDAY...PUSHING LOWLAND
TEMPERATURE READINGS TOWARDS THE 80 DEGREE MARK. NORTHERN ZONES
TOWARDS THE MOUNTAINS MAY HAVE TROUBLE KEEPING THAT PACE...SUCH AS
AT CKB...SO EXPECT A BIT OF A GRADIENT IN THE MAX TEMPERATURES EAST
OF I-79. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT AROUND 17C THAT DAY.

ON TUESDAY...TAKE THE MAX TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES OVER
THE WESTERN ZONES WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY.
OVERALL...EXPECT MONDAY TO BE THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS WEST OF
I-79 AND TUESDAY TO BE THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS EAST OF I-79.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MEAN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BRINGS A SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS THRU...EACH FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES UNDER CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL BRING TEMPERATURES TO WELL BELOW NORMAL BY
FRIDAY. PRECIP WISE...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATING...MOISTURE
RETURN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF THESE FRONTS WILL BE LIMITED
WITH CORRESPONDINGLY LIGHT QPF. FIRST FRONT THIS PERIOD USES THE
SLOWER MODELS OVER THE FASTER GFS AND WILL COME ACROSS EARLY
WEDNESDAY...PRECEDED BY SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER FRONT WILL COME ACROSS FRIDAY WITH EVEN LESS
MOISTURE AVAILABLE...SO ANY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED.
TEMPERATURES WILL GET PROGRESSIVELY COOLER THIS PERIOD. WE WILL
START WITH LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND ONLY NEAR 50 BY FRIDAY.
LOWS WILL START IN THE LOWER 50S TUESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE 30S BY
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MAINLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ENVISIONED INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS.
HARD TO FIGURE OUT EXTENT OF STRATUS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.
ALLOWED FOR A PERIOD OF BKN MVFR CIG WITH THE FRONT AND LINGERED A
BIT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY KBKW. THERE
WILL BE SOME GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...PERHAPS CONTINUING FOR A FEW HRS THIS EVENING
BEFORE INVERSION SETS UP. ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN GUSTS 25 TO 35 KTS
CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. NO FOG IS EXPECTED WITH DRY AIRMASS
AND BL PUFF.

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ON SUNDAY AMID SKC. THERE MAY BE SOME 15
TO 20 KT GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON DURING PRIME MIXING HRS ACROSS
KCKB/KEKN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS COULD VARY AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN CROSSES INTO THIS EVENING. TIMING AND
EXTENT OF MVFR STRATOCU TONIGHT MAY VARY ALSO.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/30/26
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...30











000
FXUS61 KRLX 251913
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
242 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES
SUNDAY. WARMER EARLY NEXT WEEK. COLD FRONTS CROSS EARLY WEDNESDAY
AND AGAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT SCOOTS ACROSS INTO THIS EVENING. KEPT SCHC
POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BUT OTHERWISE A DRY FROPA. SOME POST
FRONTAL LOW STRATUS MAY TRY TO LINGER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND S
COAL FIELDS FOR A TIME TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT DRY AIR WILL WIN OUT
FOR MOST RESULTING IN CLEARING THIS EVENING.

A FANTASTIC SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP WITH NARY A CLOUD IN THE SKY AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE ONLY REAL CHANGE TO THE FORECAST COMES AT THE FAR END AND HAVE
GONE AHEAD AND SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. KEEP LIKELIES IN PERRY COUNTY...BUT TRIM THE
EXTENT OF ANY POPS TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE NAM HAS SLOWED IT DOWN A
TOUCH AND DO NOT TRUST THE FASTER GFS IN THESE SITUATIONS.

OTHERWISE...A DR WARM FRONT COMES THROUGH MONDAY...PUSHING LOWLAND
TEMPERATURE READINGS TOWARDS THE 80 DEGREE MARK. NORTHERN ZONES
TOWARDS THE MOUNTAINS MAY HAVE TROUBLE KEEPING THAT PACE...SUCH AS
AT CKB...SO EXPECT A BIT OF A GRADIENT IN THE MAX TEMPERATURES EAST
OF I-79. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT AROUND 17C THAT DAY.

ON TUESDAY...TAKE THE MAX TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES OVER
THE WESTERN ZONES WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY.
OVERALL...EXPECT MONDAY TO BE THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS WEST OF
I-79 AND TUESDAY TO BE THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS EAST OF I-79.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MEAN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BRINGS A SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS THRU...EACH FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES UNDER CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL BRING TEMPERATURES TO WELL BELOW NORMAL BY
FRIDAY. PRECIP WISE...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATING...MOISTURE
RETURN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF THESE FRONTS WILL BE LIMITED
WITH CORRESPONDINGLY LIGHT QPF. FIRST FRONT THIS PERIOD USES THE
SLOWER MODELS OVER THE FASTER GFS AND WILL COME ACROSS EARLY
WEDNESDAY...PRECEDED BY SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER FRONT WILL COME ACROSS FRIDAY WITH EVEN LESS
MOISTURE AVAILABLE...SO ANY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED.
TEMPERATURES WILL GET PROGRESSIVELY COOLER THIS PERIOD. WE WILL
START WITH LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND ONLY NEAR 50 BY FRIDAY.
LOWS WILL START IN THE LOWER 50S TUESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE 30S BY
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MAINLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ENVISIONED INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS.
HARD TO FIGURE OUT EXTENT OF STRATUS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.
ALLOWED FOR A PERIOD OF BKN MVFR CIG WITH THE FRONT AND LINGERED A
BIT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY KBKW. THERE
WILL BE SOME GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...PERHAPS CONTINUING FOR A FEW HRS THIS EVENING
BEFORE INVERSION SETS UP. ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN GUSTS 25 TO 35 KTS
CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. NO FOG IS EXPECTED WITH DRY AIRMASS
AND BL PUFF.

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ON SUNDAY AMID SKC. THERE MAY BE SOME 15
TO 20 KT GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON DURING PRIME MIXING HRS ACROSS
KCKB/KEKN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS COULD VARY AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN CROSSES INTO THIS EVENING. TIMING AND
EXTENT OF MVFR STRATOCU TONIGHT MAY VARY ALSO.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/30/26
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...30











000
FXUS61 KRLX 251835
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
235 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES
SUNDAY. WARMER EARLY NEXT WEEK. COLD FRONTS CROSS EARLY WEDNESDAY
AND AGAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT SCOOTS ACROSS INTO THIS EVENING. KEPT SCHC
POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BUT OTHERWISE A DRY FROPA. SOME POST
FRONTAL LOW STRATUS MAY TRY TO LINGER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND S
COAL FIELDS FOR A TIME TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT DRY AIR WILL WIN OUT
FOR MOST RESULTING IN CLEARING THIS EVENING.

A FANTASTIC SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP WITH NARY A CLOUD IN THE SKY AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE ONLY REAL CHANGE TO THE FORECAST COMES AT THE FAR END AND HAVE
GONE AHEAD AND SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. KEEP LIKELIES IN PERRY COUNTY...BUT TRIM THE
EXTENT OF ANY POPS TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE NAM HAS SLOWED IT DOWN A
TOUCH AND DO NOT TRUST THE FASTER GFS IN THESE SITUATIONS.

OTHERWISE...A DR WARM FRONT COMES THROUGH MONDAY...PUSHING LOWLAND
TEMPERATURE READINGS TOWARDS THE 80 DEGREE MARK. NORTHERN ZONES
TOWARDS THE MOUNTAINS MAY HAVE TROUBLE KEEPING THAT PACE...SUCH AS
AT CKB...SO EXPECT A BIT OF A GRADIENT IN THE MAX TEMPERATURES EAST
OF I-79. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT AROUND 17C THAT DAY.

ON TUESDAY...TAKE THE MAX TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES OVER
THE WESTERN ZONES WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY.
OVERALL...EXPECT MONDAY TO BE THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS WEST OF
I-79 AND TUESDAY TO BE THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS EAST OF I-79.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIODS BEGIN RATHER WARM AND END RATHER CHILLY. TUESDAY
THE AREA WILL BASKING IN WARM SW FLOW AMID BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS.
HAVE TENTATIVELY CODED UP MID 70S BUT THIS MAY BE A BIT UNDERDONE.
THE WARMTH DOES NOT LAST THOUGH...AS A STRONG BUT MOISTURE
RESTRICTED COLD FRONT CROSSES MIDWEEK. APPEARS FRONT WILL SLOW
DOWN AS THE UPPER TROF BEGINS TO RETREAT. SO...HAVE WEDNESDAY THE
DAY FOR FROPA...WITH A SOMEWHAT NARROW FRONTAL ZONE OF SHRA MOVING
THRU. AREA CLEARS OUT FOR A NICE BUT COOLISH DAY ON THURSDAY.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL
SHOWING VOLATILITY FROM RUN TO RUN WITH MAGNITUDE OF UPPER TROF
MOVING INTO THE REGION...WHICH INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH HAS SOME
ORIGINS FROM THE REMNANTS OF ANA IN THE E PACIFIC CURRENTLY. DID
NOT SWAY MUCH FROM WPC TO MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. WILL BE WATCHING TO SEE IF THE MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS
EMERGE WHICH WOULD GIVE SOME UNSEASONABLE COLD AIR TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MAINLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ENVISIONED INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS.
HARD TO FIGURE OUT EXTENT OF STRATUS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.
ALLOWED FOR A PERIOD OF BKN MVFR CIG WITH THE FRONT AND LINGERED A
BIT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY KBKW. THERE
WILL BE SOME GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...PERHAPS CONTINUING FOR A FEW HRS THIS EVENING
BEFORE INVERSION SETS UP. ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN GUSTS 25 TO 35 KTS
CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. NO FOG IS EXPECTED WITH DRY AIRMASS
AND BL PUFF.

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ON SUNDAY AMID SKC. THERE MAY BE SOME 15
TO 20 KT GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON DURING PRIME MIXING HRS ACROSS
KCKB/KEKN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS COULD VARY AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN CROSSES INTO THIS EVENING. TIMING AND
EXTENT OF MVFR STRATOCU TONIGHT MAY VARY ALSO.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/30/26
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...30









000
FXUS61 KRLX 251835
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
235 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES
SUNDAY. WARMER EARLY NEXT WEEK. COLD FRONTS CROSS EARLY WEDNESDAY
AND AGAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT SCOOTS ACROSS INTO THIS EVENING. KEPT SCHC
POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BUT OTHERWISE A DRY FROPA. SOME POST
FRONTAL LOW STRATUS MAY TRY TO LINGER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND S
COAL FIELDS FOR A TIME TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT DRY AIR WILL WIN OUT
FOR MOST RESULTING IN CLEARING THIS EVENING.

A FANTASTIC SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP WITH NARY A CLOUD IN THE SKY AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE ONLY REAL CHANGE TO THE FORECAST COMES AT THE FAR END AND HAVE
GONE AHEAD AND SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. KEEP LIKELIES IN PERRY COUNTY...BUT TRIM THE
EXTENT OF ANY POPS TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE NAM HAS SLOWED IT DOWN A
TOUCH AND DO NOT TRUST THE FASTER GFS IN THESE SITUATIONS.

OTHERWISE...A DR WARM FRONT COMES THROUGH MONDAY...PUSHING LOWLAND
TEMPERATURE READINGS TOWARDS THE 80 DEGREE MARK. NORTHERN ZONES
TOWARDS THE MOUNTAINS MAY HAVE TROUBLE KEEPING THAT PACE...SUCH AS
AT CKB...SO EXPECT A BIT OF A GRADIENT IN THE MAX TEMPERATURES EAST
OF I-79. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT AROUND 17C THAT DAY.

ON TUESDAY...TAKE THE MAX TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES OVER
THE WESTERN ZONES WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY.
OVERALL...EXPECT MONDAY TO BE THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS WEST OF
I-79 AND TUESDAY TO BE THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS EAST OF I-79.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIODS BEGIN RATHER WARM AND END RATHER CHILLY. TUESDAY
THE AREA WILL BASKING IN WARM SW FLOW AMID BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS.
HAVE TENTATIVELY CODED UP MID 70S BUT THIS MAY BE A BIT UNDERDONE.
THE WARMTH DOES NOT LAST THOUGH...AS A STRONG BUT MOISTURE
RESTRICTED COLD FRONT CROSSES MIDWEEK. APPEARS FRONT WILL SLOW
DOWN AS THE UPPER TROF BEGINS TO RETREAT. SO...HAVE WEDNESDAY THE
DAY FOR FROPA...WITH A SOMEWHAT NARROW FRONTAL ZONE OF SHRA MOVING
THRU. AREA CLEARS OUT FOR A NICE BUT COOLISH DAY ON THURSDAY.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL
SHOWING VOLATILITY FROM RUN TO RUN WITH MAGNITUDE OF UPPER TROF
MOVING INTO THE REGION...WHICH INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH HAS SOME
ORIGINS FROM THE REMNANTS OF ANA IN THE E PACIFIC CURRENTLY. DID
NOT SWAY MUCH FROM WPC TO MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. WILL BE WATCHING TO SEE IF THE MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS
EMERGE WHICH WOULD GIVE SOME UNSEASONABLE COLD AIR TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MAINLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ENVISIONED INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS.
HARD TO FIGURE OUT EXTENT OF STRATUS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.
ALLOWED FOR A PERIOD OF BKN MVFR CIG WITH THE FRONT AND LINGERED A
BIT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY KBKW. THERE
WILL BE SOME GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...PERHAPS CONTINUING FOR A FEW HRS THIS EVENING
BEFORE INVERSION SETS UP. ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN GUSTS 25 TO 35 KTS
CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. NO FOG IS EXPECTED WITH DRY AIRMASS
AND BL PUFF.

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ON SUNDAY AMID SKC. THERE MAY BE SOME 15
TO 20 KT GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON DURING PRIME MIXING HRS ACROSS
KCKB/KEKN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS COULD VARY AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN CROSSES INTO THIS EVENING. TIMING AND
EXTENT OF MVFR STRATOCU TONIGHT MAY VARY ALSO.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/30/26
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...30









000
FXUS61 KRLX 251806
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
206 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES
SUNDAY. WARMER EARLY NEXT WEEK. COLD FRONTS CROSS EARLY WEDNESDAY
AND AGAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT SCOOTS ACROSS INTO THIS EVENING. KEPT SCHC
POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BUT OTHERWISE A DRY FROPA. SOME POST
FRONTAL LOW STRATUS MAY TRY TO LINGER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND S
COAL FIELDS FOR A TIME TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT DRY AIR WILL WIN OUT
FOR MOST RESULTING IN CLEARING THIS EVENING.

A FANTASTIC SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP WITH NARY A CLOUD IN THE SKY AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER TENNESSEE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE LATER PART OF WEEKEND AS A WEAK WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
DRY...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN
LITTLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH AN UPSWING IN DAYTIME
HIGHS...ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY AFTER WARMER AIRMASS NUDGES INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY.

MAINLY STUCK WITH INHERITED TEMPERATURE VALUES WHICH WERE LEANING
TOWARD THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIODS BEGIN RATHER WARM AND END RATHER CHILLY. TUESDAY
THE AREA WILL BASKING IN WARM SW FLOW AMID BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS.
HAVE TENTATIVELY CODED UP MID 70S BUT THIS MAY BE A BIT UNDERDONE.
THE WARMTH DOES NOT LAST THOUGH...AS A STRONG BUT MOISTURE
RESTRICTED COLD FRONT CROSSES MIDWEEK. APPEARS FRONT WILL SLOW
DOWN AS THE UPPER TROF BEGINS TO RETREAT. SO...HAVE WEDNESDAY THE
DAY FOR FROPA...WITH A SOMEWHAT NARROW FRONTAL ZONE OF SHRA MOVING
THRU. AREA CLEARS OUT FOR A NICE BUT COOLISH DAY ON THURSDAY.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL
SHOWING VOLATILITY FROM RUN TO RUN WITH MAGNITUDE OF UPPER TROF
MOVING INTO THE REGION...WHICH INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH HAS SOME
ORIGINS FROM THE REMNANTS OF ANA IN THE E PACIFIC CURRENTLY. DID
NOT SWAY MUCH FROM WPC TO MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. WILL BE WATCHING TO SEE IF THE MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS
EMERGE WHICH WOULD GIVE SOME UNSEASONABLE COLD AIR TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MAINLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ENVISIONED INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS.
HARD TO FIGURE OUT EXTENT OF STRATUS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.
ALLOWED FOR A PERIOD OF BKN MVFR CIG WITH THE FRONT AND LINGERED A
BIT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY KBKW. THERE
WILL BE SOME GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...PERHAPS CONTINUING FOR A FEW HRS THIS EVENING
BEFORE INVERSION SETS UP. ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN GUSTS 25 TO 35 KTS
CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. NO FOG IS EXPECTED WITH DRY AIRMASS
AND BL PUFF.

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ON SUNDAY AMID SKC. THERE MAY BE SOME 15
TO 20 KT GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON DURING PRIME MIXING HRS ACROSS
KCKB/KEKN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS COULD VARY AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN CROSSES INTO THIS EVENING. TIMING AND
EXTENT OF MVFR STRATOCU TONIGHT MAY VARY ALSO.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/30/26
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...30









000
FXUS61 KRLX 251806
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
206 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES
SUNDAY. WARMER EARLY NEXT WEEK. COLD FRONTS CROSS EARLY WEDNESDAY
AND AGAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT SCOOTS ACROSS INTO THIS EVENING. KEPT SCHC
POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BUT OTHERWISE A DRY FROPA. SOME POST
FRONTAL LOW STRATUS MAY TRY TO LINGER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND S
COAL FIELDS FOR A TIME TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT DRY AIR WILL WIN OUT
FOR MOST RESULTING IN CLEARING THIS EVENING.

A FANTASTIC SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP WITH NARY A CLOUD IN THE SKY AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER TENNESSEE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE LATER PART OF WEEKEND AS A WEAK WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
DRY...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN
LITTLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH AN UPSWING IN DAYTIME
HIGHS...ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY AFTER WARMER AIRMASS NUDGES INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY.

MAINLY STUCK WITH INHERITED TEMPERATURE VALUES WHICH WERE LEANING
TOWARD THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIODS BEGIN RATHER WARM AND END RATHER CHILLY. TUESDAY
THE AREA WILL BASKING IN WARM SW FLOW AMID BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS.
HAVE TENTATIVELY CODED UP MID 70S BUT THIS MAY BE A BIT UNDERDONE.
THE WARMTH DOES NOT LAST THOUGH...AS A STRONG BUT MOISTURE
RESTRICTED COLD FRONT CROSSES MIDWEEK. APPEARS FRONT WILL SLOW
DOWN AS THE UPPER TROF BEGINS TO RETREAT. SO...HAVE WEDNESDAY THE
DAY FOR FROPA...WITH A SOMEWHAT NARROW FRONTAL ZONE OF SHRA MOVING
THRU. AREA CLEARS OUT FOR A NICE BUT COOLISH DAY ON THURSDAY.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL
SHOWING VOLATILITY FROM RUN TO RUN WITH MAGNITUDE OF UPPER TROF
MOVING INTO THE REGION...WHICH INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH HAS SOME
ORIGINS FROM THE REMNANTS OF ANA IN THE E PACIFIC CURRENTLY. DID
NOT SWAY MUCH FROM WPC TO MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. WILL BE WATCHING TO SEE IF THE MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS
EMERGE WHICH WOULD GIVE SOME UNSEASONABLE COLD AIR TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MAINLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ENVISIONED INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS.
HARD TO FIGURE OUT EXTENT OF STRATUS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.
ALLOWED FOR A PERIOD OF BKN MVFR CIG WITH THE FRONT AND LINGERED A
BIT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY KBKW. THERE
WILL BE SOME GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...PERHAPS CONTINUING FOR A FEW HRS THIS EVENING
BEFORE INVERSION SETS UP. ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN GUSTS 25 TO 35 KTS
CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. NO FOG IS EXPECTED WITH DRY AIRMASS
AND BL PUFF.

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ON SUNDAY AMID SKC. THERE MAY BE SOME 15
TO 20 KT GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON DURING PRIME MIXING HRS ACROSS
KCKB/KEKN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS COULD VARY AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN CROSSES INTO THIS EVENING. TIMING AND
EXTENT OF MVFR STRATOCU TONIGHT MAY VARY ALSO.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/30/26
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...30









000
FXUS61 KRLX 251523
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1123 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS FIRST THING THIS MORNING.  A MAINLY DRY COLD
FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SUNDAY.  WARMER EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  COLD FRONTS CROSS EARLY WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1130 AM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK.

PREV DISCN...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS FIRST THING THIS MORNING...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT
TO APPROACH FROM THE MIDWEST.  THE FRONT IS DRIVEN BY AN UPPER LEVEL
S/W TROUGH THAT DIGS ESEWD THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST TODAY...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SETTLING INTO THE ST.
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z SUN.  THIS LEAVES THE FCST AREA ON THE
ANTICYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF THE JET.

WITH LITTLE INFLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NOT MUCH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED.  CLOUDS INCREASE
TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN REACHING THE GROUND OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT...AND ONLY 20 PERCENT EVEN THERE.

THE FLOW BECOMES ALIGNED OUT OF THE WNW TONIGHT AS THE FRONT
CROSSES...WITH UP TO 50 KTS AT H85.  THEREFORE EXPECT WINDS TO
BECOME A BIT GUSTY LATE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT IN THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH PEAK GUSTS POSSIBLY OVER 40 KTS OVER THE VERY
HIGHEST RIDGETOPS.

BLENDED IN THE MET AND BIAS CORRECTED MAV FOR HIGHS TODAY...WHICH
ARE CLOSE TO A BIAS CORRECTED MOS BLEND AND PREVIOUS.  KEPT LOWS
TONIGHT WHICH ARE ALSO CLOSE TO BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE.  DID SLOW
THE FALL OF TEMPERATURES TONIGHT UNTIL THE FRONT GOES BY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER TENNESSEE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE LATER PART OF WEEKEND AS A WEAK WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
DRY...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN
LITTLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH AN UPSWING IN DAYTIME
HIGHS...ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY AFTER WARMER AIRMASS NUDGES INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY.

MAINLY STUCK WITH INHERITED TEMPERATURE VALUES WHICH WERE LEANING
TOWARD THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIODS BEGIN RATHER WARM AND END RATHER CHILLY. TUESDAY
THE AREA WILL BASKING IN WARM SW FLOW AMID BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS.
HAVE TENTATIVELY CODED UP MID 70S BUT THIS MAY BE A BIT UNDERDONE.
THE WARMTH DOES NOT LAST THOUGH...AS A STRONG BUT MOISTURE
RESTRICTED COLD FRONT CROSSES MIDWEEK. APPEARS FRONT WILL SLOW
DOWN AS THE UPPER TROF BEGINS TO RETREAT. SO...HAVE WEDNESDAY THE
DAY FOR FROPA...WITH A SOMEWHAT NARROW FRONTAL ZONE OF SHRA MOVING
THRU. AREA CLEARS OUT FOR A NICE BUT COOLISH DAY ON THURSDAY.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL
SHOWING VOLATILITY FROM RUN TO RUN WITH MAGNITUDE OF UPPER TROF
MOVING INTO THE REGION...WHICH INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH HAS SOME
ORIGINS FROM THE REMNANTS OF ANA IN THE E PACIFIC CURRENTLY. DID
NOT SWAY MUCH FROM WPC TO MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. WILL BE WATCHING TO SEE IF THE MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS
EMERGE WHICH WOULD GIVE SOME UNSEASONABLE COLD AIR TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS FIRST THING MORNING.  THE FOG BURNS OFF BY
14Z...YIELDING A VFR DAY TODAY.  A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W
MAY BRING SPRINKLES...EVEN A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER...TO THE MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT.  AN ASSOCIATED STRATOCU DECK WILL REMAIN VFR DURING THE DAY
TODAY...BEFORE LOWERING TO MVFR TONIGHT.  NEAR AND W OF THE OHIO
RIVER...THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP AS THE BASES LOWER...SO MVFR CIGS
MAY NEVER BE REALIZED.

LIGHT S TO SW SFC FLOW THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT W TO SW
TODAY...AND THEN BECOME A BIT GUSTY IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN CROSSES.  SFC FLOW WILL BE W TO NW BEHIND
THE FRONT.  SO...EVEN WHERE AND WHEN IT CLEARS...THERE OUGHT TO BE
ENOUGH WIND AND DRY ADVECTION TO PRECLUDE FOG TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN LITTLE OR NO RAIN.  LIGHT TO MODERATE W FLOW ALOFT TODAY WILL
BECOME MODERATE TO STRONG NW BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF FOG BURNING OFF THIS MORNING MAY VARY
BY AN HOUR OR SO.  WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS COULD VARY AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES AND THEN CROSSES TONIGHT.  TIMING AND EXTENT OF MVFR
STRATOCU TONIGHT MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM/30
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...TRM









000
FXUS61 KRLX 251033
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
633 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS FIRST THING THIS MORNING.  A MAINLY DRY COLD
FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SUNDAY.  WARMER EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  COLD FRONTS CROSS EARLY WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK.

PREV DISCN...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS FIRST THING THIS MORNING...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT
TO APPROACH FROM THE MIDWEST.  THE FRONT IS DRIVEN BY AN UPPER LEVEL
S/W TROUGH THAT DIGS ESEWD THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST TODAY...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SETTLING INTO THE ST.
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z SUN.  THIS LEAVES THE FCST AREA ON THE
ANTICYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF THE JET.

WITH LITTLE INFLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NOT MUCH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED.  CLOUDS INCREASE
TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN REACHING THE GROUND OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT...AND ONLY 20 PERCENT EVEN THERE.

THE FLOW BECOMES ALIGNED OUT OF THE WNW TONIGHT AS THE FRONT
CROSSES...WITH UP TO 50 KTS AT H85.  THEREFORE EXPECT WINDS TO
BECOME A BIT GUSTY LATE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT IN THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH PEAK GUSTS POSSIBLY OVER 40 KTS OVER THE VERY
HIGHEST RIDGETOPS.

BLENDED IN THE MET AND BIAS CORRECTED MAV FOR HIGHS TODAY...WHICH
ARE CLOSE TO A BIAS CORRECTED MOS BLEND AND PREVIOUS.  KEPT LOWS
TONIGHT WHICH ARE ALSO CLOSE TO BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE.  DID SLOW
THE FALL OF TEMPERATURES TONIGHT UNTIL THE FRONT GOES BY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER TENNESSEE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE LATER PART OF WEEKEND AS A WEAK WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
DRY...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN
LITTLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH AN UPSWING IN DAYTIME
HIGHS...ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY AFTER WARMER AIRMASS NUDGES INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY.

MAINLY STUCK WITH INHERITED TEMPERATURE VALUES WHICH WERE LEANING
TOWARD THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIODS BEGIN RATHER WARM AND END RATHER CHILLY. TUESDAY
THE AREA WILL BASKING IN WARM SW FLOW AMID BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS.
HAVE TENTATIVELY CODED UP MID 70S BUT THIS MAY BE A BIT UNDERDONE.
THE WARMTH DOES NOT LAST THOUGH...AS A STRONG BUT MOISTURE
RESTRICTED COLD FRONT CROSSES MIDWEEK. APPEARS FRONT WILL SLOW
DOWN AS THE UPPER TROF BEGINS TO RETREAT. SO...HAVE WEDNESDAY THE
DAY FOR FROPA...WITH A SOMEWHAT NARROW FRONTAL ZONE OF SHRA MOVING
THRU. AREA CLEARS OUT FOR A NICE BUT COOLISH DAY ON THURSDAY.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL
SHOWING VOLATILITY FROM RUN TO RUN WITH MAGNITUDE OF UPPER TROF
MOVING INTO THE REGION...WHICH INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH HAS SOME
ORIGINS FROM THE REMNANTS OF ANA IN THE E PACIFIC CURRENTLY. DID
NOT SWAY MUCH FROM WPC TO MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. WILL BE WATCHING TO SEE IF THE MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS
EMERGE WHICH WOULD GIVE SOME UNSEASONABLE COLD AIR TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS FIRST THING MORNING.  THE FOG BURNS OFF BY
14Z...YIELDING A VFR DAY TODAY.  A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W
MAY BRING SPRINKLES...EVEN A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER...TO THE MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT.  AN ASSOCIATED STRATOCU DECK WILL REMAIN VFR DURING THE DAY
TODAY...BEFORE LOWERING TO MVFR TONIGHT.  NEAR AND W OF THE OHIO
RIVER...THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP AS THE BASES LOWER...SO MVFR CIGS
MAY NEVER BE REALIZED.

LIGHT S TO SW SFC FLOW THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT W TO SW
TODAY...AND THEN BECOME A BIT GUSTY IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN CROSSES.  SFC FLOW WILL BE W TO NW BEHIND
THE FRONT.  SO...EVEN WHERE AND WHEN IT CLEARS...THERE OUGHT TO BE
ENOUGH WIND AND DRY ADVECTION TO PRECLUDE FOG TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN LITTLE OR NO RAIN.  LIGHT TO MODERATE W FLOW ALOFT TODAY WILL
BECOME MODERATE TO STRONG NW BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF FOG BURNING OFF THIS MORNING MAY VARY
BY AN HOUR OR SO.  WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS COULD VARY AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES AND THEN CROSSES TONIGHT.  TIMING AND EXTENT OF MVFR
STRATOCU TONIGHT MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...TRM







000
FXUS61 KRLX 251033
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
633 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS FIRST THING THIS MORNING.  A MAINLY DRY COLD
FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SUNDAY.  WARMER EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  COLD FRONTS CROSS EARLY WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK.

PREV DISCN...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS FIRST THING THIS MORNING...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT
TO APPROACH FROM THE MIDWEST.  THE FRONT IS DRIVEN BY AN UPPER LEVEL
S/W TROUGH THAT DIGS ESEWD THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST TODAY...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SETTLING INTO THE ST.
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z SUN.  THIS LEAVES THE FCST AREA ON THE
ANTICYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF THE JET.

WITH LITTLE INFLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NOT MUCH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED.  CLOUDS INCREASE
TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN REACHING THE GROUND OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT...AND ONLY 20 PERCENT EVEN THERE.

THE FLOW BECOMES ALIGNED OUT OF THE WNW TONIGHT AS THE FRONT
CROSSES...WITH UP TO 50 KTS AT H85.  THEREFORE EXPECT WINDS TO
BECOME A BIT GUSTY LATE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT IN THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH PEAK GUSTS POSSIBLY OVER 40 KTS OVER THE VERY
HIGHEST RIDGETOPS.

BLENDED IN THE MET AND BIAS CORRECTED MAV FOR HIGHS TODAY...WHICH
ARE CLOSE TO A BIAS CORRECTED MOS BLEND AND PREVIOUS.  KEPT LOWS
TONIGHT WHICH ARE ALSO CLOSE TO BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE.  DID SLOW
THE FALL OF TEMPERATURES TONIGHT UNTIL THE FRONT GOES BY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER TENNESSEE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE LATER PART OF WEEKEND AS A WEAK WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
DRY...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN
LITTLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH AN UPSWING IN DAYTIME
HIGHS...ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY AFTER WARMER AIRMASS NUDGES INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY.

MAINLY STUCK WITH INHERITED TEMPERATURE VALUES WHICH WERE LEANING
TOWARD THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIODS BEGIN RATHER WARM AND END RATHER CHILLY. TUESDAY
THE AREA WILL BASKING IN WARM SW FLOW AMID BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS.
HAVE TENTATIVELY CODED UP MID 70S BUT THIS MAY BE A BIT UNDERDONE.
THE WARMTH DOES NOT LAST THOUGH...AS A STRONG BUT MOISTURE
RESTRICTED COLD FRONT CROSSES MIDWEEK. APPEARS FRONT WILL SLOW
DOWN AS THE UPPER TROF BEGINS TO RETREAT. SO...HAVE WEDNESDAY THE
DAY FOR FROPA...WITH A SOMEWHAT NARROW FRONTAL ZONE OF SHRA MOVING
THRU. AREA CLEARS OUT FOR A NICE BUT COOLISH DAY ON THURSDAY.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL
SHOWING VOLATILITY FROM RUN TO RUN WITH MAGNITUDE OF UPPER TROF
MOVING INTO THE REGION...WHICH INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH HAS SOME
ORIGINS FROM THE REMNANTS OF ANA IN THE E PACIFIC CURRENTLY. DID
NOT SWAY MUCH FROM WPC TO MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. WILL BE WATCHING TO SEE IF THE MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS
EMERGE WHICH WOULD GIVE SOME UNSEASONABLE COLD AIR TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS FIRST THING MORNING.  THE FOG BURNS OFF BY
14Z...YIELDING A VFR DAY TODAY.  A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W
MAY BRING SPRINKLES...EVEN A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER...TO THE MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT.  AN ASSOCIATED STRATOCU DECK WILL REMAIN VFR DURING THE DAY
TODAY...BEFORE LOWERING TO MVFR TONIGHT.  NEAR AND W OF THE OHIO
RIVER...THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP AS THE BASES LOWER...SO MVFR CIGS
MAY NEVER BE REALIZED.

LIGHT S TO SW SFC FLOW THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT W TO SW
TODAY...AND THEN BECOME A BIT GUSTY IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN CROSSES.  SFC FLOW WILL BE W TO NW BEHIND
THE FRONT.  SO...EVEN WHERE AND WHEN IT CLEARS...THERE OUGHT TO BE
ENOUGH WIND AND DRY ADVECTION TO PRECLUDE FOG TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN LITTLE OR NO RAIN.  LIGHT TO MODERATE W FLOW ALOFT TODAY WILL
BECOME MODERATE TO STRONG NW BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF FOG BURNING OFF THIS MORNING MAY VARY
BY AN HOUR OR SO.  WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS COULD VARY AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES AND THEN CROSSES TONIGHT.  TIMING AND EXTENT OF MVFR
STRATOCU TONIGHT MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...TRM







000
FXUS61 KRLX 250758
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
358 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS FIRST THING THIS MORNING.  A MAINLY DRY COLD
FRONT CROSSES THIS EVENING.  HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SUNDAY.  WARMER
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  COLD FRONTS CROSS EARLY WEDNESDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS FIRST THING THIS MORNING...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT
TO APPROACH FROM THE MIDWEST.  THE FRONT IS DRIVEN BY AN UPPER LEVEL
S/W TROUGH THAT DIGS ESEWD THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST TODAY...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SETTLING INTO THE ST.
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z SUN.  THIS LEAVES THE FCST AREA ON THE
ANTICYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF THE JET.

WITH LITTLE INFLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NOT MUCH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED.  CLOUDS INCREASE
TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN REACHING THE GROUND OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT...AND ONLY 20 PERCENT EVEN THERE.

THE FLOW BECOMES ALIGNED OUT OF THE WNW TONIGHT AS THE FRONT
CROSSES...WITH UP TO 50 KTS AT H85.  THEREFORE EXPECT WINDS TO
BECOME A BIT GUSTY LATE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT IN THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH PEAK GUSTS POSSIBLY OVER 40 KTS OVER THE VERY
HIGHEST RIDGETOPS.

BLENDED IN THE MET AND BIAS CORRECTED MAV FOR HIGHS TODAY...WHICH
ARE CLOSE TO A BIAS CORRECTED MOS BLEND AND PREVIOUS.  KEPT LOWS
TONIGHT WHICH ARE ALSO CLOSE TO BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE.  DID SLOW
THE FALL OF TEMPERATURES TONIGHT UNTIL THE FRONT GOES BY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER TENNESSEE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE LATER PART OF WEEKEND AS A WEAK WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
DRY...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN
LITTLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH AN UPSWING IN DAYTIME
HIGHS...ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY AFTER WARMER AIRMASS NUDGES INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY.

MAINLY STUCK WITH INHERITED TEMPERATURE VALUES WHICH WERE LEANING
TOWARD THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIODS BEGIN RATHER WARM AND END RATHER CHILLY. TUESDAY
THE AREA WILL BASKING IN WARM SW FLOW AMID BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS.
HAVE TENTATIVELY CODED UP MID 70S BUT THIS MAY BE A BIT UNDERDONE.
THE WARMTH DOES NOT LAST THOUGH...AS A STRONG BUT MOISTURE
RESTRICTED COLD FRONT CROSSES MIDWEEK. APPEARS FRONT WILL SLOW
DOWN AS THE UPPER TROF BEGINS TO RETREAT. SO...HAVE WEDNESDAY THE
DAY FOR FROPA...WITH A SOMEWHAT NARROW FRONTAL ZONE OF SHRA MOVING
THRU. AREA CLEARS OUT FOR A NICE BUT COOLISH DAY ON THURSDAY.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL
SHOWING VOLATILITY FROM RUN TO RUN WITH MAGNITUDE OF UPPER TROF
MOVING INTO THE REGION...WHICH INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH HAS SOME
ORIGINS FROM THE REMNANTS OF ANA IN THE E PACIFIC CURRENTLY. DID
NOT SWAY MUCH FROM WPC TO MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. WILL BE WATCHING TO SEE IF THE MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS
EMERGE WHICH WOULD GIVE SOME UNSEASONABLE COLD AIR TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS EARLY SAT MORNING.  DENSE VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY E
OF THE OHIO RIVER...WITH JUST MVFR MIST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.  THE
FOG BURNS OFF BY 14Z SAT MORNING...YIELDING A VFR DAY.  A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE W MAY BRING SPRINKLES...EVEN A LIGHT RAIN
SHOWER...E OF THE OHIO RIVER SAT AFTERNOON AND NT.  AN ASSOCIATED
STRATOCU DECK WILL REMAIN VFR DURING THE DAY SAT BEFORE LOWERING TO
MVFR SAT NT.  NEAR AND W OF THE OHIO RIVER...THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK
UP AS THE BASES LOWER...SO MVFR CIGS MAY NEVER BE REALIZED.

CALM AIR WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHT W TO SW SFC FLOW SAT...AND THEN
BECOME A BIT GUSTY IN THE MOUNTAINS SAT NT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
AND THEN CROSSES.  SFC FLOW WILL BE W TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT.  LIGHT
TO MODERATE W FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT AND SAT WILL BECOME MODERATE TO
STRONG NW BEHIND THE FRONT SAT NT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH...MEDIUM WITH THE FOG.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING...DENSITY...AND LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING COULD VARY.  WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS COULD VARY AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN CROSSES SAT EVENING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SAT 10/25/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...TRM







000
FXUS61 KRLX 250600
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
200 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVERNIGHT.  A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES
SATURDAY EVENING.  HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SUNDAY.  WARMER EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  COLD FRONTS CROSS EARLY WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
200 AM UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.

1000 PM UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...JUST PROVIDING SOME CLOUDS. WITH SOME WINDS LATE TONIGHT
AND CLOUDS ALSO MOVING IN...WENT TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS IN
SOUTHEAST OHIO. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGS SOME CLOUDS ON
SATURDAY...BUT SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE IS TOO LIMITED FOR
ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ASIDE FROM SOME POST COLD FRONTAL SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS...SIG WX NIL IN THE SHORT TERM. THERE MAY NOT BE A CLOUD
IN THE SKY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. AS THIS SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS TO THE
EAST...FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY AND WILL TAKE THE TEMPERATURES FOR
MONDAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS 500MB HEIGHTS CLIMB BACK OVER 580DKM IN
STRONG RIDGING. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES TOPPING THE 16C MARK OVER
THE WESTERN ZONES...THINK 80 DEGREES ON MONDAY IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...AND HAVE UTILIZED THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIODS BEGIN RATHER WARM AND END RATHER CHILLY. TUESDAY
THE AREA WILL BASKING IN WARM SW FLOW AMID BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS.
HAVE TENTATIVELY CODED UP MID 70S BUT THIS MAY BE A BIT UNDERDONE.
THE WARMTH DOES NOT LAST THOUGH...AS A STRONG BUT MOISTURE
RESTRICTED COLD FRONT CROSSES MIDWEEK. APPEARS FRONT WILL SLOW
DOWN AS THE UPPER TROF BEGINS TO RETREAT. SO...HAVE WEDNESDAY THE
DAY FOR FROPA...WITH A SOMEWHAT NARROW FRONTAL ZONE OF SHRA MOVING
THRU. AREA CLEARS OUT FOR A NICE BUT COOLISH DAY ON THURSDAY.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL
SHOWING VOLATILITY FROM RUN TO RUN WITH MAGNITUDE OF UPPER TROF
MOVING INTO THE REGION...WHICH INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH HAS SOME
ORIGINS FROM THE REMNANTS OF ANA IN THE E PACIFIC CURRENTLY. DID
NOT SWAY MUCH FROM WPC TO MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. WILL BE WATCHING TO SEE IF THE MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS
EMERGE WHICH WOULD GIVE SOME UNSEASONABLE COLD AIR TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS EARLY SAT MORNING.  DENSE VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY E
OF THE OHIO RIVER...WITH JUST MVFR MIST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.  THE
FOG BURNS OFF BY 14Z SAT MORNING...YIELDING A VFR DAY.  A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE W MAY BRING SPRINKLES...EVEN A LIGHT RAIN
SHOWER...E OF THE OHIO RIVER SAT AFTERNOON AND NT.  AN ASSOCIATED
STRATOCU DECK WILL REMAIN VFR DURING THE DAY SAT BEFORE LOWERING TO
MVFR SAT NT.  NEAR AND W OF THE OHIO RIVER...THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK
UP AS THE BASES LOWER...SO MVFR CIGS MAY NEVER BE REALIZED.

CALM AIR WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHT W TO SW SFC FLOW SAT...AND THEN
BECOME A BIT GUSTY IN THE MOUNTAINS SAT NT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
AND THEN CROSSES.  SFC FLOW WILL BE W TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT.  LIGHT
TO MODERATE W FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT AND SAT WILL BECOME MODERATE TO
STRONG NW BEHIND THE FRONT SAT NT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH...MEDIUM WITH THE FOG.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING...DENSITY...AND LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING COULD VARY.  WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS COULD VARY AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN CROSSES SAT EVENING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SAT 10/25/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30/26/TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM/RPY/MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...TRM







000
FXUS61 KRLX 250203
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1003 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TONIGHT. A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES
SATURDAY EVENING.  HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY.  WARMER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1000 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE
REGION THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN MOVE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...JUST PROVIDING SOME
CLOUDS. WITH SOME WINDS LATE TONIGHT AND CLOUDS ALSO MOVING
IN...WENT TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS IN SOUTHEAST OHIO. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGS SOME CLOUDS ON SATURDAY...BUT
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE IS TOO LIMITED FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ASIDE FROM SOME POST COLD FRONTAL SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS...SIG WX NIL IN THE SHORT TERM. THERE MAY NOT BE A CLOUD
IN THE SKY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. AS THIS SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS TO THE
EAST...FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY AND WILL TAKE THE TEMPERATURES FOR
MONDAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS 500MB HEIGHTS CLIMB BACK OVER 580DKM IN
STRONG RIDGING. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES TOPPING THE 16C MARK OVER
THE WESTERN ZONES...THINK 80 DEGREES ON MONDAY IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...AND HAVE UTILIZED THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIODS BEGIN RATHER WARM AND END RATHER CHILLY. TUESDAY
THE AREA WILL BASKING IN WARM SW FLOW AMID BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS.
HAVE TENTATIVELY CODED UP MID 70S BUT THIS MAY BE A BIT UNDERDONE.
THE WARMTH DOES NOT LAST THOUGH...AS A STRONG BUT MOISTURE
RESTRICTED COLD FRONT CROSSES MIDWEEK. APPEARS FRONT WILL SLOW
DOWN AS THE UPPER TROF BEGINS TO RETREAT. SO...HAVE WEDNESDAY THE
DAY FOR FROPA...WITH A SOMEWHAT NARROW FRONTAL ZONE OF SHRA MOVING
THRU. AREA CLEARS OUT FOR A NICE BUT COOLISH DAY ON THURSDAY.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL
SHOWING VOLATILITY FROM RUN TO RUN WITH MAGNITUDE OF UPPER TROF
MOVING INTO THE REGION...WHICH INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH HAS SOME
ORIGINS FROM THE REMNANTS OF ANA IN THE E PACIFIC CURRENTLY. DID
NOT SWAY MUCH FROM WPC TO MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. WILL BE WATCHING TO SEE IF THE MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS
EMERGE WHICH WOULD GIVE SOME UNSEASONABLE COLD AIR TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS
EVENING. SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT IN THE
PROTECTED VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. THAT FOG WILL DISSIPATE 12Z-14Z. CLOUDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH. CANNOT RULE OUT A LIGHT SHOWER AND SOME MVFR CIGS WITH
THIS. HAVE SOME MVFR CIGS ENTERING FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH...MEDIUM WITH THE FOG.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING...DENSITY...AND LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT
COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  SAT 10/25/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30/26
NEAR TERM...RPY/MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...MZ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 242312
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
712 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TONIGHT. A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES
SATURDAY EVENING.  HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY.  WARMER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
700 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE
REGION THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN MOVE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...JUST PROVIDING SOME
CLOUDS. WITH SOME WINDS LATE TONIGHT AND CLOUDS ALSO MOVING
IN...WENT TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS IN SOUTHEAST OHIO. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGS SOME CLOUDS ON SATURDAY...BUT
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE IS TOO LIMITED FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ASIDE FROM SOME POST COLD FRONTAL SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS...SIG WX NIL IN THE SHORT TERM. THERE MAY NOT BE A CLOUD
IN THE SKY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. AS THIS SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS TO THE
EAST...FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY AND WILL TAKE THE TEMPERATURES FOR
MONDAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS 500MB HEIGHTS CLIMB BACK OVER 580DKM IN
STRONG RIDGING. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES TOPPING THE 16C MARK OVER
THE WESTERN ZONES...THINK 80 DEGREES ON MONDAY IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...AND HAVE UTILIZED THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIODS BEGIN RATHER WARM AND END RATHER CHILLY. TUESDAY
THE AREA WILL BASKING IN WARM SW FLOW AMID BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS.
HAVE TENTATIVELY CODED UP MID 70S BUT THIS MAY BE A BIT UNDERDONE.
THE WARMTH DOES NOT LAST THOUGH...AS A STRONG BUT MOISTURE
RESTRICTED COLD FRONT CROSSES MIDWEEK. APPEARS FRONT WILL SLOW
DOWN AS THE UPPER TROF BEGINS TO RETREAT. SO...HAVE WEDNESDAY THE
DAY FOR FROPA...WITH A SOMEWHAT NARROW FRONTAL ZONE OF SHRA MOVING
THRU. AREA CLEARS OUT FOR A NICE BUT COOLISH DAY ON THURSDAY.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL
SHOWING VOLATILITY FROM RUN TO RUN WITH MAGNITUDE OF UPPER TROF
MOVING INTO THE REGION...WHICH INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH HAS SOME
ORIGINS FROM THE REMNANTS OF ANA IN THE E PACIFIC CURRENTLY. DID
NOT SWAY MUCH FROM WPC TO MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. WILL BE WATCHING TO SEE IF THE MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS
EMERGE WHICH WOULD GIVE SOME UNSEASONABLE COLD AIR TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS
EVENING. SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT IN THE
PROTECTED VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. THAT FOG WILL DISSIPATE 12Z-14Z. CLOUDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH. CANNOT RULE OUT A LIGHT SHOWER AND SOME MVFR CIGS WITH
THIS. HAVE SOME MVFR CIGS ENTERING FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH...MEDIUM WITH THE FOG.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING...DENSITY...AND LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT
COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30/26
NEAR TERM...RPY/MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...MZ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 241923
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
323 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TONIGHT. A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES
SATURDAY EVENING.  HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY.  WARMER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...JUST PROVIDING SOME CLOUDS. WITH SOME WINDS LATE TONIGHT
AND CLOUDS ALSO MOVING IN...WENT TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS IN
SOUTHEAST OHIO. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGS SOME CLOUDS ON
SATURDAY...BUT SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE IS TOO LIMITED FOR
ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ASIDE FROM SOME POST COLD FRONTAL SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS...SIG WX NIL IN THE SHORT TERM. THERE MAY NOT BE A CLOUD
IN THE SKY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. AS THIS SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS TO THE
EAST...FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY AND WILL TAKE THE TEMPERATURES FOR
MONDAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS 500MB HEIGHTS CLIMB BACK OVER 580DKM IN
STRONG RIDGING. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES TOPPING THE 16C MARK OVER
THE WESTERN ZONES...THINK 80 DEGREES ON MONDAY IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...AND HAVE UTILIZED THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIODS BEGIN RATHER WARM AND END RATHER CHILLY. TUESDAY
THE AREA WILL BASKING IN WARM SW FLOW AMID BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS.
HAVE TENTATIVELY CODED UP MID 70S BUT THIS MAY BE A BIT UNDERDONE.
THE WARMTH DOES NOT LAST THOUGH...AS A STRONG BUT MOISTURE
RESTRICTED COLD FRONT CROSSES MIDWEEK. APPEARS FRONT WILL SLOW
DOWN AS THE UPPER TROF BEGINS TO RETREAT. SO...HAVE WEDNESDAY THE
DAY FOR FROPA...WITH A SOMEWHAT NARROW FRONTAL ZONE OF SHRA MOVING
THRU. AREA CLEARS OUT FOR A NICE BUT COOLISH DAY ON THURSDAY.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL
SHOWING VOLATILITY FROM RUN TO RUN WITH MAGNITUDE OF UPPER TROF
MOVING INTO THE REGION...WHICH INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH HAS SOME
ORIGINS FROM THE REMNANTS OF ANA IN THE E PACIFIC CURRENTLY. DID
NOT SWAY MUCH FROM WPC TO MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. WILL BE WATCHING TO SEE IF THE MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS
EMERGE WHICH WOULD GIVE SOME UNSEASONABLE COLD AIR TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT IN THE
PROTECTED VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN MOVE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY...PROVIDING SOME MVFR/VFR
CLOUDS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH...MEDIUM WITH THE FOG.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING...DENSITY...AND LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT
COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30/26
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...RPY









000
FXUS61 KRLX 241816
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
215 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TONIGHT. A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES
SATURDAY EVENING.  HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY.  WARMER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...JUST PROVIDING SOME CLOUDS. WITH SOME WINDS LATE TONIGHT
AND CLOUDS ALSO MOVING IN...WENT TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS IN
SOUTHEAST OHIO. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGS SOME CLOUDS ON
SATURDAY...BUT SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE IS TOO LIMITED FOR
ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR SATURDAY...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND REACHES THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT.  THE LATEST NAM12...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE GFS...ARE SPITTING OUT THE SLIGHTEST AMOUNT OF QPF FOR
THE 06Z SUN TIMEFRAME. LEFT MENTION OF LIGHT SHOWERS IN FOR
MOUNTAINS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THIS DYING FRONT MAKES ITS
EXODUS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER TENNESSEE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH THE LATER PART OF WEEKEND AS A WEAK WARM FRONT
PUSHED NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN DRY...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN LITTLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH AN UPSWING IN
DAYTIME HIGHS...ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY AFTER WARMER AIRMASS NUDGES
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

USED INHERITED TEMPS WITH A BLEND TOWARD CONSENSUS BC GRIDS TO COVER
DAYTIME HIGHS WHICH LEAD TO MINIMAL CHANGES IN VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARMING ALOFT...ALONG WITH A PSEUDO DRY WARM FRONT...SHOULD BE
LIFTING NORTH AND NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.  WILL KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FROST ADVISORY
CRITERIA WHERE THE PROGRAM STILL IS ONGOING.

WARMING ON MONDAY APPEARS FASTER THAN WE PICTURED 24 HOURS AGO. 850
MB TEMPERATURES OF 15 TO 16C BY 00Z TUESDAY ARE PROJECTED BY 12Z GFS
AND ECMWF.  A MARGINAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE AT 850 MBS ON TUESDAY
HAS GFS AND ECMWF DROPPING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 12C TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.  WILL INCREASE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MONDAY...BUT
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD KEEP MAXIMUM READINGS TUESDAY NEARING AS
WARM.  STRONGEST WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  HAVE
SURFACE DEW POINTS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST IN WAKE OF THE
PSEUDO WARM FRONT ON MONDAY.  DO NOT EXPECT RED FLAG CRITERIA TO BE
MEET.  HOWEVER...WITH THE INCREASE IN WIND AND THE WARM AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES...WILL INCLUDE AN ELEVATED/ENHANCED RISK OF THE SPREAD
OF WILD/BRUSH FIRES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TUESDAY.

WAS ALSO SLOWER INCREASING CLOUD COVER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THAN
OUR MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FROM WPC.

GLAD WE DELAYED THE POPS 24 HOURS AGO...WITH THE NEXT FRONT.  THE
FRONT WILL HAVE SOME RIGHT REAR 250 MB JET SUPPORT.  SO HAVE
INCREASED POPS...MOSTLY IN THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE FOR LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  HAVE POPS LOWERING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IN OUR OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES.

THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WITH
ANOTHER 500 MB TROF STILL TO OUR WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  SO WILL HOLD
POPS ALONG OUR VIRGINIA BORDER COUNTIES INTO THURSDAY...BUT HAVE THE
WESTERN SLOPES DRY ON THURSDAY.  WAVE LIKELY TO ENHANCE THE RAIN
THURSDAY TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST.  A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIKELY BE WELL TO OUR NORTH...OVER ONTARIO LATE THURSDAY...WHICH
WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO ANOTHER DOWNWARD SWING ON OUR AUTUMN
TEMPERATURE SEESAW RIDE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT IN THE
PROTECTED VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN MOVE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY...PROVIDING SOME MVFR/VFR
CLOUDS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH...MEDIUM WITH THE FOG.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING...DENSITY...AND LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT
COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/RPY
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...RPY











000
FXUS61 KRLX 241433
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1030 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DOMINATES THROUGH TONIGHT...EVEN AS
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSS.  MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES
SATURDAY EVENING.  HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY.  WARMER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. NO CHANGES ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR SATURDAY...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND REACHES THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT.  THE LATEST NAM12...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE GFS...ARE SPITTING OUT THE SLIGHTEST AMOUNT OF QPF FOR
THE 06Z SUN TIMEFRAME. LEFT MENTION OF LIGHT SHOWERS IN FOR
MOUNTAINS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THIS DYING FRONT MAKES ITS
EXODUS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER TENNESSEE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH THE LATER PART OF WEEKEND AS A WEAK WARM FRONT
PUSHED NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN DRY...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN LITTLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH AN UPSWING IN
DAYTIME HIGHS...ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY AFTER WARMER AIRMASS NUDGES
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

USED INHERITED TEMPS WITH A BLEND TOWARD CONSENSUS BC GRIDS TO COVER
DAYTIME HIGHS WHICH LEAD TO MINIMAL CHANGES IN VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARMING ALOFT...ALONG WITH A PSEUDO DRY WARM FRONT...SHOULD BE
LIFTING NORTH AND NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.  WILL KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FROST ADVISORY
CRITERIA WHERE THE PROGRAM STILL IS ONGOING.

WARMING ON MONDAY APPEARS FASTER THAN WE PICTURED 24 HOURS AGO. 850
MB TEMPERATURES OF 15 TO 16C BY 00Z TUESDAY ARE PROJECTED BY 12Z GFS
AND ECMWF.  A MARGINAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE AT 850 MBS ON TUESDAY
HAS GFS AND ECMWF DROPPING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 12C TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.  WILL INCREASE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MONDAY...BUT
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD KEEP MAXIMUM READINGS TUESDAY NEARING AS
WARM.  STRONGEST WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  HAVE
SURFACE DEW POINTS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST IN WAKE OF THE
PSEUDO WARM FRONT ON MONDAY.  DO NOT EXPECT RED FLAG CRITERIA TO BE
MEET.  HOWEVER...WITH THE INCREASE IN WIND AND THE WARM AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES...WILL INCLUDE AN ELEVATED/ENHANCED RISK OF THE SPREAD
OF WILD/BRUSH FIRES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TUESDAY.

WAS ALSO SLOWER INCREASING CLOUD COVER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THAN
OUR MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FROM WPC.

GLAD WE DELAYED THE POPS 24 HOURS AGO...WITH THE NEXT FRONT.  THE
FRONT WILL HAVE SOME RIGHT REAR 250 MB JET SUPPORT.  SO HAVE
INCREASED POPS...MOSTLY IN THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE FOR LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  HAVE POPS LOWERING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IN OUR OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES.

THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WITH
ANOTHER 500 MB TROF STILL TO OUR WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  SO WILL HOLD
POPS ALONG OUR VIRGINIA BORDER COUNTIES INTO THURSDAY...BUT HAVE THE
WESTERN SLOPES DRY ON THURSDAY.  WAVE LIKELY TO ENHANCE THE RAIN
THURSDAY TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST.  A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIKELY BE WELL TO OUR NORTH...OVER ONTARIO LATE THURSDAY...WHICH
WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO ANOTHER DOWNWARD SWING ON OUR AUTUMN
TEMPERATURE SEESAW RIDE.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR STRATOCU DISSIPATING IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT MAY REFORM
BRIEFLY AS MORNING CU AFTER DAYBREAK FRI.  OTHERWISE VLIFR DENSE FOG
LIKELY MOST SITES...EVEN BKW MAY GET IFR FOG.

THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...THE BALANCE OF THE DAY FRI AND FRI
NT...WILL BRING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BRINGS MID AND HIGH CLOUD.  VALLEY FOG MAY START TO FORM BY 06Z
SAT.  MVFR STRATOCU MAY ALSO START TO REFORM IN THE MOUNTAINS BY 06Z
SAT.

CALM AIR WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHT W SFC FLOW FRI AND THEN BECOME CALM
AGAIN FRI NT.  LIGHT N FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME LIGHT NW FRI.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM OVERNIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...THEN HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING...DENSITY...AND LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT
COULD VARY...AS MAY MVFR CIGS AT EKN INTO FRI MORNING AND AGAIN FRI
NT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/TRM
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...TRM











000
FXUS61 KRLX 241017
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
617 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DOMINATES THROUGH TONIGHT...EVEN AS
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSS.  MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES
SATURDAY EVENING.  HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY.  WARMER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
615 AM UPDATE...
INCREASED CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS FIRST THING THIS
MORNING...WHILE DECREASING FOG THERE.  FCST OTHERWISE ON TRACK.

PREV DISCN...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AT THE SFC EVEN AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES CROSS.  UPSLOPE STRATOCU IN THE MOUNTAINS RESULTING
FROM THE LOW LEVEL NW FLOW WILL MIX OUT LATER THIS MORNING ON
HEATING AND DRYING.  MODELS SUGGEST IT MAY REFORM IN THE MOUNTAINS
LATE TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW STILL FROM THE W TO NW.  HAVE A
HINT OF THIS IN THE FCST.  OTHERWISE EXPECT JUST MID AND HIGH CLOUD
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.

LOWER CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD DAWN SAT
IN WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...PROBABLY LATE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
DENSE VALLEY FOG TO FORM AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

INHERITED TEMPERATURES WERE CLOSE TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE BLENDS AND
LOOKED REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR SATURDAY...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND REACHES THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT.  THE LATEST NAM12...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE GFS...ARE SPITTING OUT THE SLIGHTEST AMOUNT OF QPF FOR
THE 06Z SUN TIMEFRAME. LEFT MENTION OF LIGHT SHOWERS IN FOR
MOUNTAINS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THIS DYING FRONT MAKES ITS
EXODUS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER TENNESSEE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH THE LATER PART OF WEEKEND AS A WEAK WARM FRONT
PUSHED NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN DRY...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN LITTLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH AN UPSWING IN
DAYTIME HIGHS...ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY AFTER WARMER AIRMASS NUDGES
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

USED INHERITED TEMPS WITH A BLEND TOWARD CONSENSUS BC GRIDS TO COVER
DAYTIME HIGHS WHICH LEAD TO MINIMAL CHANGES IN VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARMING ALOFT...ALONG WITH A PSEUDO DRY WARM FRONT...SHOULD BE
LIFTING NORTH AND NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.  WILL KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FROST ADVISORY
CRITERIA WHERE THE PROGRAM STILL IS ONGOING.

WARMING ON MONDAY APPEARS FASTER THAN WE PICTURED 24 HOURS AGO. 850
MB TEMPERATURES OF 15 TO 16C BY 00Z TUESDAY ARE PROJECTED BY 12Z GFS
AND ECMWF.  A MARGINAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE AT 850 MBS ON TUESDAY
HAS GFS AND ECMWF DROPPING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 12C TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.  WILL INCREASE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MONDAY...BUT
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD KEEP MAXIMUM READINGS TUESDAY NEARING AS
WARM.  STRONGEST WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  HAVE
SURFACE DEW POINTS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST IN WAKE OF THE
PSEUDO WARM FRONT ON MONDAY.  DO NOT EXPECT RED FLAG CRITERIA TO BE
MEET.  HOWEVER...WITH THE INCREASE IN WIND AND THE WARM AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES...WILL INCLUDE AN ELEVATED/ENHANCED RISK OF THE SPREAD
OF WILD/BRUSH FIRES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TUESDAY.

WAS ALSO SLOWER INCREASING CLOUD COVER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THAN
OUR MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FROM WPC.

GLAD WE DELAYED THE POPS 24 HOURS AGO...WITH THE NEXT FRONT.  THE
FRONT WILL HAVE SOME RIGHT REAR 250 MB JET SUPPORT.  SO HAVE
INCREASED POPS...MOSTLY IN THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE FOR LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  HAVE POPS LOWERING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IN OUR OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES.

THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WITH
ANOTHER 500 MB TROF STILL TO OUR WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  SO WILL HOLD
POPS ALONG OUR VIRGINIA BORDER COUNTIES INTO THURSDAY...BUT HAVE THE
WESTERN SLOPES DRY ON THURSDAY.  WAVE LIKELY TO ENHANCE THE RAIN
THURSDAY TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST.  A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIKELY BE WELL TO OUR NORTH...OVER ONTARIO LATE THURSDAY...WHICH
WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO ANOTHER DOWNWARD SWING ON OUR AUTUMN
TEMPERATURE SEESAW RIDE.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR STRATOCU IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MIX INTO A
MORNING CU FIELD LATER THIS MORNING...BEFORE DISSIPATING ALTOGETHER
BY THIS AFTERNOON.  ELSEWHERE...VALLEY FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 14Z.
THE SRN EDGE OF THE STRATOCU MADE IT AS FAR S AS BKW FOR A TIME
OVERNIGHT...AND MAY RE-MATERIALIZE AS MORNING CU THERE FOR AN HOUR
OR TWO THIS MORNING.  ELSEWHERE...FOG...MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS BUT
WHICH ALSO MANAGED TO GET INTO BKW BRIEFLY...WILL DISSIPATE BY 14Z.

THE BALANCE OF TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BRING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS MID AND HIGH CLOUD.  LOWER CLOUD WILL
REACH THE OHIO RIVER AS 12Z SAT APPROACHES...AND MVFR STRATOCU MAY
REFORM IN THE MOUNTAINS.

CALM AIR EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHT W SFC FLOW TODAY
AND THEN BECOME CALM AGAIN TONIGHT.  FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN LIGHT NW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: BEHAVIOR OF FOG MAY VARY FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF
THE FCST...AS MAY THAT OF STRATOCU IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING.
WHILE NOT CURRENTLY FCST...DENSE VALLEY FOG MAY EVENTUALLY FORM
LATER TONIGHT.  THE FORMATION OF MVFR STRATOCU IN THE MOUNTAINS
LATER TONIGHT IS ALSO IN QUESTION...ITS ABSENCE MAY ALLOW FOG THERE
AS WELL.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...TRM







000
FXUS61 KRLX 240750
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
350 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DOMINATES THROUGH TONIGHT...EVEN AS
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSS.  MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES
SATURDAY EVENING.  HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY.  WARMER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AT THE SFC EVEN AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES CROSS.  UPSLOPE STRATOCU IN THE MOUNTAINS RESULTING
FROM THE LOW LEVEL NW FLOW WILL MIX OUT LATER THIS MORNING ON
HEATING AND DRYING.  MODELS SUGGEST IT MAY REFORM IN THE MOUNTAINS
LATE TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW STILL FROM THE W TO NW.  HAVE A
HINT OF THIS IN THE FCST.  OTHERWISE EXPECT JUST MID AND HIGH CLOUD
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.

LOWER CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD DAWN SAT
IN WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...PROBABLY LATE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
DENSE VALLEY FOG TO FORM AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

INHERITED TEMPERATURES WERE CLOSE TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE BLENDS AND
LOOKED REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR SATURDAY...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND REACHES THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT.  THE LATEST NAM12...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE GFS...ARE SPITTING OUT THE SLIGHTEST AMOUNT OF QPF FOR
THE 06Z SUN TIMEFRAME. LEFT MENTION OF LIGHT SHOWERS IN FOR
MOUNTAINS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THIS DYING FRONT MAKES ITS
EXODUS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER TENNESSEE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH THE LATER PART OF WEEKEND AS A WEAK WARM FRONT
PUSHED NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN DRY...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN LITTLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH AN UPSWING IN
DAYTIME HIGHS...ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY AFTER WARMER AIRMASS NUDGES
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

USED INHERITED TEMPS WITH A BLEND TOWARD CONSENSUS BC GRIDS TO COVER
DAYTIME HIGHS WHICH LEAD TO MINIMAL CHANGES IN VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARMING ALOFT...ALONG WITH A PSEUDO DRY WARM FRONT...SHOULD BE
LIFTING NORTH AND NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.  WILL KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FROST ADVISORY
CRITERIA WHERE THE PROGRAM STILL IS ONGOING.

WARMING ON MONDAY APPEARS FASTER THAN WE PICTURED 24 HOURS AGO. 850
MB TEMPERATURES OF 15 TO 16C BY 00Z TUESDAY ARE PROJECTED BY 12Z GFS
AND ECMWF.  A MARGINAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE AT 850 MBS ON TUESDAY
HAS GFS AND ECMWF DROPPING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 12C TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.  WILL INCREASE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MONDAY...BUT
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD KEEP MAXIMUM READINGS TUESDAY NEARING AS
WARM.  STRONGEST WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  HAVE
SURFACE DEW POINTS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST IN WAKE OF THE
PSEUDO WARM FRONT ON MONDAY.  DO NOT EXPECT RED FLAG CRITERIA TO BE
MEET.  HOWEVER...WITH THE INCREASE IN WIND AND THE WARM AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES...WILL INCLUDE AN ELEVATED/ENHANCED RISK OF THE SPREAD
OF WILD/BRUSH FIRES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TUESDAY.

WAS ALSO SLOWER INCREASING CLOUD COVER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THAN
OUR MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FROM WPC.

GLAD WE DELAYED THE POPS 24 HOURS AGO...WITH THE NEXT FRONT.  THE
FRONT WILL HAVE SOME RIGHT REAR 250 MB JET SUPPORT.  SO HAVE
INCREASED POPS...MOSTLY IN THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE FOR LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  HAVE POPS LOWERING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IN OUR OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES.

THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WITH
ANOTHER 500 MB TROF STILL TO OUR WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  SO WILL HOLD
POPS ALONG OUR VIRGINIA BORDER COUNTIES INTO THURSDAY...BUT HAVE THE
WESTERN SLOPES DRY ON THURSDAY.  WAVE LIKELY TO ENHANCE THE RAIN
THURSDAY TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST.  A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIKELY BE WELL TO OUR NORTH...OVER ONTARIO LATE THURSDAY...WHICH
WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO ANOTHER DOWNWARD SWING ON OUR AUTUMN
TEMPERATURE SEESAW RIDE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR STRATOCU DISSIPATING IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT MAY REFORM
BRIEFLY AS MORNING CU AFTER DAYBREAK FRI.  OTHERWISE VLIFR DENSE FOG
LIKELY MOST SITES...EVEN BKW MAY GET IFR FOG.

THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...THE BALANCE OF THE DAY FRI AND FRI
NT...WILL BRING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BRINGS MID AND HIGH CLOUD.  VALLEY FOG MAY START TO FORM BY 06Z
SAT.  MVFR STRATOCU MAY ALSO START TO REFORM IN THE MOUNTAINS BY 06Z
SAT.

CALM AIR WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHT W SFC FLOW FRI AND THEN BECOME CALM
AGAIN FRI NT.  LIGHT N FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME LIGHT NW FRI.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM OVERNIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...THEN HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING...DENSITY...AND LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT
COULD VARY...AS MAY MVFR CIGS AT EKN INTO FRI MORNING AND AGAIN FRI
NT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              FRI 10/24/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...TRM







000
FXUS61 KRLX 240641
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
241 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT REMAINS IN PLACE ON FRIDAY. DRY
COLD FRONT SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WARMING
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. NEXT FRONT AROUND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
230 AM UPDATE...
ADJUSTED LOWS DOWN PER CURRENT TRENDS. THIS PROMPTED THE ADDITION
OF SOME FROST...ALTHOUGH THE FORMATION OF DEW EARLY ON MAY PREVENT
FROST FROM FORMING.

200 AM UPDATE...
ADJUSTED THE CLEARING...AND HENCE THE FOG...FASTER AND FARTHER E.

1000 PM UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREV DISCN...
MODELS SHOW CLOUDS FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. WITH CLOUDS CLEARING AND WINDS BECOMING CALM IN WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THERE IS A QUESTION OF WHETHER FOG
WILL FORM. SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN OVERNIGHT WILL ATTEMPT TO HAMPER
FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT BELIEVE SOME FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE
NORMAL SPOTS OF THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY WITH ONLY A FEW HIGHER
CLOUDS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HAVE SOME FEATURES TO TALK ABOUT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND...WITHOUT MUCH FANFARE IN TERMS OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THEY
WILL CREATE.

A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL DRAG WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT...TRAILED BY A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE. THIS WILL TRANSLATE
TO LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST ALONG
WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. FOLLOWING THESE FEATURES FOR
SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING IS THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
WASH OUT IN TERMS OF THE PRESSURE FIELDS...AND AGAIN...WILL PRODUCE
SOME CLOUDS AND A REMOVAL OF THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND
FIELD.

FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...NOT EXPECTING MEASURABLE...AND
MAY NEED TO REVISIT THIS FOR SOME SPRINKLES WITH EITHER FEATURE. DID
ADD SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE SATURDAY
EVENING COLD FRONT. MIGHT GET SOME DAMP GROUND IN A FEW LOCATIONS IN
THE MOUNTAINS...BUT AGAIN...NOT EXPECTING MUCH.

TEMPERATURES PUSH WARMER IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...AND WILL
ONLY FALL A COUPLE DEGREES FOR SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

IN THE END...A DECENT WEEKEND SHAPING UP. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE
OPEN TO SEE IF MODELS MAKE A PUSH FOR BETTER MOISTURE IN WHICH SOME
LOW END POPS NEED TO BE ADDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARMING ALOFT...ALONG WITH A PSEUDO DRY WARM FRONT...SHOULD BE
LIFTING NORTH AND NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.  WILL KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FROST ADVISORY
CRITERIA WHERE THE PROGRAM STILL IS ONGOING.

WARMING ON MONDAY APPEARS FASTER THAN WE PICTURED 24 HOURS AGO. 850
MB TEMPERATURES OF 15 TO 16C BY 00Z TUESDAY ARE PROJECTED BY 12Z GFS
AND ECMWF.  A MARGINAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE AT 850 MBS ON TUESDAY
HAS GFS AND ECMWF DROPPING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 12C TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.  WILL INCREASE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MONDAY...BUT
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD KEEP MAXIMUM READINGS TUESDAY NEARING AS
WARM.  STRONGEST WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  HAVE
SURFACE DEW POINTS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST IN WAKE OF THE
PSEUDO WARM FRONT ON MONDAY.  DO NOT EXPECT RED FLAG CRITERIA TO BE
MEET.  HOWEVER...WITH THE INCREASE IN WIND AND THE WARM AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES...WILL INCLUDE AN ELEVATED/ENHANCED RISK OF THE SPREAD
OF WILD/BRUSH FIRES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TUESDAY.

WAS ALSO SLOWER INCREASING CLOUD COVER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THAN
OUR MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FROM WPC.

GLAD WE DELAYED THE POPS 24 HOURS AGO...WITH THE NEXT FRONT.  THE
FRONT WILL HAVE SOME RIGHT REAR 250 MB JET SUPPORT.  SO HAVE
INCREASED POPS...MOSTLY IN THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE FOR LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  HAVE POPS LOWERING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IN OUR OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES.

THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WITH
ANOTHER 500 MB TROF STILL TO OUR WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  SO WILL HOLD
POPS ALONG OUR VIRGINIA BORDER COUNTIES INTO THURSDAY...BUT HAVE THE
WESTERN SLOPES DRY ON THURSDAY.  WAVE LIKELY TO ENHANCE THE RAIN
THURSDAY TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST.  A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIKELY BE WELL TO OUR NORTH...OVER ONTARIO LATE THURSDAY...WHICH
WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO ANOTHER DOWNWARD SWING ON OUR AUTUMN
TEMPERATURE SEESAW RIDE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR STRATOCU DISSIPATING IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT MAY REFORM
BRIEFLY AS MORNING CU AFTER DAYBREAK FRI.  OTHERWISE VLIFR DENSE FOG
LIKELY MOST SITES...EVEN BKW MAY GET IFR FOG.

THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...THE BALANCE OF THE DAY FRI AND FRI
NT...WILL BRING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BRINGS MID AND HIGH CLOUD.  VALLEY FOG MAY START TO FORM BY 06Z
SAT.  MVFR STRATOCU MAY ALSO START TO REFORM IN THE MOUNTAINS BY 06Z
SAT.

CALM AIR WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHT W SFC FLOW FRI AND THEN BECOME CALM
AGAIN FRI NT.  LIGHT N FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME LIGHT NW FRI.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM OVERNIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...THEN HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING...DENSITY...AND LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT
COULD VARY...AS MAY MVFR CIGS AT EKN INTO FRI MORNING AND AGAIN FRI
NT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              FRI 10/24/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/RPY/26
NEAR TERM...TRM/RPY/MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...TRM









000
FXUS61 KRLX 240551
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
151 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT REMAINS IN PLACE ON FRIDAY. DRY
COLD FRONT SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WARMING
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. NEXT FRONT AROUND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
200 AM UPDATE...
ADJUSTED THE CLEARING...AND HENCE THE FOG...FASTER AND FARTHER E.

1000 PM UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREV DISCN...
MODELS SHOW CLOUDS FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. WITH CLOUDS CLEARING AND WINDS BECOMING CALM IN WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THERE IS A QUESTION OF WHETHER FOG
WILL FORM. SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN OVERNIGHT WILL ATTEMPT TO HAMPER
FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT BELIEVE SOME FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE
NORMAL SPOTS OF THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY WITH ONLY A FEW HIGHER
CLOUDS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HAVE SOME FEATURES TO TALK ABOUT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND...WITHOUT MUCH FANFARE IN TERMS OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THEY
WILL CREATE.

A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL DRAG WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT...TRAILED BY A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE. THIS WILL TRANSLATE
TO LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST ALONG
WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. FOLLOWING THESE FEATURES FOR
SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING IS THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
WASH OUT IN TERMS OF THE PRESSURE FIELDS...AND AGAIN...WILL PRODUCE
SOME CLOUDS AND A REMOVAL OF THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND
FIELD.

FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...NOT EXPECTING MEASURABLE...AND
MAY NEED TO REVISIT THIS FOR SOME SPRINKLES WITH EITHER FEATURE. DID
ADD SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE SATURDAY
EVENING COLD FRONT. MIGHT GET SOME DAMP GROUND IN A FEW LOCATIONS IN
THE MOUNTAINS...BUT AGAIN...NOT EXPECTING MUCH.

TEMPERATURES PUSH WARMER IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...AND WILL
ONLY FALL A COUPLE DEGREES FOR SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

IN THE END...A DECENT WEEKEND SHAPING UP. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE
OPEN TO SEE IF MODELS MAKE A PUSH FOR BETTER MOISTURE IN WHICH SOME
LOW END POPS NEED TO BE ADDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARMING ALOFT...ALONG WITH A PSEUDO DRY WARM FRONT...SHOULD BE
LIFTING NORTH AND NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.  WILL KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FROST ADVISORY
CRITERIA WHERE THE PROGRAM STILL IS ONGOING.

WARMING ON MONDAY APPEARS FASTER THAN WE PICTURED 24 HOURS AGO. 850
MB TEMPERATURES OF 15 TO 16C BY 00Z TUESDAY ARE PROJECTED BY 12Z GFS
AND ECMWF.  A MARGINAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE AT 850 MBS ON TUESDAY
HAS GFS AND ECMWF DROPPING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 12C TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.  WILL INCREASE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MONDAY...BUT
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD KEEP MAXIMUM READINGS TUESDAY NEARING AS
WARM.  STRONGEST WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  HAVE
SURFACE DEW POINTS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST IN WAKE OF THE
PSEUDO WARM FRONT ON MONDAY.  DO NOT EXPECT RED FLAG CRITERIA TO BE
MEET.  HOWEVER...WITH THE INCREASE IN WIND AND THE WARM AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES...WILL INCLUDE AN ELEVATED/ENHANCED RISK OF THE SPREAD
OF WILD/BRUSH FIRES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TUESDAY.

WAS ALSO SLOWER INCREASING CLOUD COVER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THAN
OUR MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FROM WPC.

GLAD WE DELAYED THE POPS 24 HOURS AGO...WITH THE NEXT FRONT.  THE
FRONT WILL HAVE SOME RIGHT REAR 250 MB JET SUPPORT.  SO HAVE
INCREASED POPS...MOSTLY IN THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE FOR LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  HAVE POPS LOWERING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IN OUR OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES.

THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WITH
ANOTHER 500 MB TROF STILL TO OUR WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  SO WILL HOLD
POPS ALONG OUR VIRGINIA BORDER COUNTIES INTO THURSDAY...BUT HAVE THE
WESTERN SLOPES DRY ON THURSDAY.  WAVE LIKELY TO ENHANCE THE RAIN
THURSDAY TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST.  A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIKELY BE WELL TO OUR NORTH...OVER ONTARIO LATE THURSDAY...WHICH
WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO ANOTHER DOWNWARD SWING ON OUR AUTUMN
TEMPERATURE SEESAW RIDE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR STRATOCU DISSIPATING IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT MAY REFORM
BRIEFLY AS MORNING CU AFTER DAYBREAK FRI.  OTHERWISE VLIFR DENSE FOG
LIKELY MOST SITES...EVEN BKW MAY GET IFR FOG.

THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...THE BALANCE OF THE DAY FRI AND FRI
NT...WILL BRING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BRINGS MID AND HIGH CLOUD.  VALLEY FOG MAY START TO FORM BY 06Z
SAT.  MVFR STRATOCU MAY ALSO START TO REFORM IN THE MOUNTAINS BY 06Z
SAT.

CALM AIR WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHT W SFC FLOW FRI AND THEN BECOME CALM
AGAIN FRI NT.  LIGHT N FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME LIGHT NW FRI.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM OVERNIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...THEN HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING...DENSITY...AND LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT
COULD VARY...AS MAY MVFR CIGS AT EKN INTO FRI MORNING AND AGAIN FRI
NT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              FRI 10/24/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/RPY/26
NEAR TERM...TRM/RPY/MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...TRM







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