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000
FXUS61 KRLX 230703
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
303 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.  A
WARM WAVE MOVES UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD. CENTER OF HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY...WITH
A EAST/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA. WITH A DRY
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...WILL SEE ANOTHER GOOD DIURNAL SWING BETWEEN
MORNING LOWS AND DAYTIME HIGHS.

OVERNIGHT...WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOP
AGAIN...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD DUE TO THE OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS.
WILL SEE A FEW CLOUDS CREEP IN OVERNIGHT/TOWARDS MORNING...MAINLY
ACROSS EASTERN ZONES...FROM AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THAT
SYSTEM IN OUR CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BASICALLY RULES THE ROOST THIS PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH OVER THE SERN
STATES EARLY THIS MORNING GETS LEFT BEHIND BY NRN STREAM S/W TROUGH
LIFTING OUT THROUGH ERN CANADA DURING THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...AND
CLOSES OFF.  THE RESULTING UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY FILLS AS IT TAKES
AN INLAND TRACK...WANDERING SLOWLY NWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MOST OF THE COLUMN DRY MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT
CIRRUS IS SHOWN WED AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THU SKIRTING EASTERN
EDGES OF THE FCST AREA.  OTHERWISE SUNSHINE WILL BE PLENTIFUL BY DAY
WITH SOME DENSE VALLEY FOG AT NT.

TEMPERATURES WERE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE IN THIS BENIGN PATTERN.  DID
BLEND IN BIAS CORRECTED MET FOR HIGHS WED AND BIAS CORRECTED
CONSENSUS MOS FOR LOWS THU NT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...THE OH VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF WV...TO BRING
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER. THE WARMEST DAY SEEMS TO BE
SUNDAY UNDER NEAR CALM FLOW WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING 80 ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS.

HOWEVER...SOME DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS
MODELS. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A SFC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE US...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A WEAK DISTURBANCE. THE ECMWF
SUGGESTS THE LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THE APPALACHIANS
BRINGING SOME PCPN ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. IF THIS SCENARIO MATERIALIZES...THEN SOME RAIN
SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS NEXT MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE DISCREPANCY AMONG THESE TWO
MODELS...INTRODUCED ONLY LOW POPS ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR
FRIDAY DAY 4 WHICH USED THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS RAW.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DENSE VALLEY FOG STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AT 05Z. ANY
FOG WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 13-14Z...FOR A RETURN OF VFR AREA WIDE
WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS.

WILL CONTINUE TO HANG ONTO TEMPORARY CONDITIONS OF FOG ACROSS BKW
THIS MORNING

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              TUE 09/23/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT SHOULD NOT BE
AS WIDESPREAD AS TONIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...SL






000
FXUS61 KRLX 230703
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
303 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.  A
WARM WAVE MOVES UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD. CENTER OF HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY...WITH
A EAST/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA. WITH A DRY
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...WILL SEE ANOTHER GOOD DIURNAL SWING BETWEEN
MORNING LOWS AND DAYTIME HIGHS.

OVERNIGHT...WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOP
AGAIN...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD DUE TO THE OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS.
WILL SEE A FEW CLOUDS CREEP IN OVERNIGHT/TOWARDS MORNING...MAINLY
ACROSS EASTERN ZONES...FROM AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THAT
SYSTEM IN OUR CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BASICALLY RULES THE ROOST THIS PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH OVER THE SERN
STATES EARLY THIS MORNING GETS LEFT BEHIND BY NRN STREAM S/W TROUGH
LIFTING OUT THROUGH ERN CANADA DURING THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...AND
CLOSES OFF.  THE RESULTING UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY FILLS AS IT TAKES
AN INLAND TRACK...WANDERING SLOWLY NWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MOST OF THE COLUMN DRY MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT
CIRRUS IS SHOWN WED AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THU SKIRTING EASTERN
EDGES OF THE FCST AREA.  OTHERWISE SUNSHINE WILL BE PLENTIFUL BY DAY
WITH SOME DENSE VALLEY FOG AT NT.

TEMPERATURES WERE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE IN THIS BENIGN PATTERN.  DID
BLEND IN BIAS CORRECTED MET FOR HIGHS WED AND BIAS CORRECTED
CONSENSUS MOS FOR LOWS THU NT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...THE OH VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF WV...TO BRING
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER. THE WARMEST DAY SEEMS TO BE
SUNDAY UNDER NEAR CALM FLOW WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING 80 ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS.

HOWEVER...SOME DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS
MODELS. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A SFC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE US...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A WEAK DISTURBANCE. THE ECMWF
SUGGESTS THE LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THE APPALACHIANS
BRINGING SOME PCPN ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. IF THIS SCENARIO MATERIALIZES...THEN SOME RAIN
SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS NEXT MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE DISCREPANCY AMONG THESE TWO
MODELS...INTRODUCED ONLY LOW POPS ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR
FRIDAY DAY 4 WHICH USED THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS RAW.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DENSE VALLEY FOG STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AT 05Z. ANY
FOG WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 13-14Z...FOR A RETURN OF VFR AREA WIDE
WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS.

WILL CONTINUE TO HANG ONTO TEMPORARY CONDITIONS OF FOG ACROSS BKW
THIS MORNING

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              TUE 09/23/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT SHOULD NOT BE
AS WIDESPREAD AS TONIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...SL







000
FXUS61 KRLX 230532
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
132 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TONIGHT. IT MOVES OFFSHORE MID WEEK
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP ALONG THE APPALACHIANS OR THE EAST COAST.
ANOTHER BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
130 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...QUIET WEATHER IN THE NEAR-TERM PERIOD WITH
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS FROM PREV FCST PER LATEST GUIDANCE. SOME
LINGERING LOW STRATUS MAINLY IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AT THE
OUTSET OF THE PERIOD 00Z TUE THIS EVE WILL QUICKLY BE ERODING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...RESULTING IN A
CLEAR AND CALM OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND LOW TEMPS DROPPING GENERALLY
INTO THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...WITH SOME LOW/MID 30S FOR
THE NORMALLY- FAVORED HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEY LOCATIONS IN
RANDOLPH/POCAHONTAS COUNTIES. AT THIS POINT...NOT ANTICIPATING
THOSE LOWEST TEMPS TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FROST
HIGHLIGHT...BUT WILL REASSESS AS 12Z DATA COMES IN TODAY. DO
EXPECT TO SEE SOME FROST AT LEAST IN THOSE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
SPOTS HOWEVER...AND WILL AT LEAST CONTINUE PATCHY FROST MENTION IN
CURRENT HWO TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE TUESDAY AS ITS CENTER
CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD JUST TO OUR NORTH...WITH SFC
WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE. MEANWHILE UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE MISS VALLEY CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY WITH FLOW ALOFT
BECOMING NEARLY DUE-NORTH. ANY EARLY MORNING FOG WILL QUICKLY
SCATTER...WITH A VIRTUALLY CLEAR SKY ON TUESDAY FOR MOST AND PERHAPS
A FEW FLAT-CU IN THE MOUNTAINS. MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S
FOR THE LOWLANDS STILL APPEARS ON TRACK...WITH LOWER/MID 60S
EXPECTED FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST OF US TO BRING EASTERLY
FLOW AGAINST THE APPALACHIANS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. MODELS SHOW H850 TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 13C UNDER E-SE FLOW. THIS WILL BRING SOME WARMER TEMPS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME DOWN SLOPING WARMING
CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL OVER THE LOWLANDS. THEREFORE...BUMPED UP
TEMPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THE FLOW WEAKENS THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSEN UP AND A
NEW BROAD HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...SOUTH ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...WV AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LEFT PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK GOOD THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...THE OH VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF WV...TO BRING
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER. THE WARMEST DAY SEEMS TO BE
SUNDAY UNDER NEAR CALM FLOW WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING 80 ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS.

HOWEVER...SOME DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS
MODELS. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A SFC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE US...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A WEAK DISTURBANCE. THE ECMWF
SUGGESTS THE LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THE APPALACHIANS
BRINGING SOME PCPN ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. IF THIS SCENARIO MATERIALIZES...THEN SOME RAIN
SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS NEXT MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE DISCREPANCY AMONG THESE TWO
MODELS...INTRODUCED ONLY LOW POPS ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR
FRIDAY DAY 4 WHICH USED THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS RAW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DENSE VALLEY FOG STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AT 05Z. ANY
FOG WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 13-14Z...FOR A RETURN OF VFR AREA WIDE
WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS.

WILL CONTINUE TO HANG ONTO TEMPORARY CONDITIONS OF FOG ACROSS BKW
THIS MORNING

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              TUE 09/23/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT SHOULD NOT BE
AS WIDESPREAD AS TONIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...50/SL
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...SL








000
FXUS61 KRLX 230532
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
132 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TONIGHT. IT MOVES OFFSHORE MID WEEK
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP ALONG THE APPALACHIANS OR THE EAST COAST.
ANOTHER BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
130 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...QUIET WEATHER IN THE NEAR-TERM PERIOD WITH
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS FROM PREV FCST PER LATEST GUIDANCE. SOME
LINGERING LOW STRATUS MAINLY IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AT THE
OUTSET OF THE PERIOD 00Z TUE THIS EVE WILL QUICKLY BE ERODING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...RESULTING IN A
CLEAR AND CALM OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND LOW TEMPS DROPPING GENERALLY
INTO THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...WITH SOME LOW/MID 30S FOR
THE NORMALLY- FAVORED HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEY LOCATIONS IN
RANDOLPH/POCAHONTAS COUNTIES. AT THIS POINT...NOT ANTICIPATING
THOSE LOWEST TEMPS TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FROST
HIGHLIGHT...BUT WILL REASSESS AS 12Z DATA COMES IN TODAY. DO
EXPECT TO SEE SOME FROST AT LEAST IN THOSE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
SPOTS HOWEVER...AND WILL AT LEAST CONTINUE PATCHY FROST MENTION IN
CURRENT HWO TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE TUESDAY AS ITS CENTER
CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD JUST TO OUR NORTH...WITH SFC
WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE. MEANWHILE UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE MISS VALLEY CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY WITH FLOW ALOFT
BECOMING NEARLY DUE-NORTH. ANY EARLY MORNING FOG WILL QUICKLY
SCATTER...WITH A VIRTUALLY CLEAR SKY ON TUESDAY FOR MOST AND PERHAPS
A FEW FLAT-CU IN THE MOUNTAINS. MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S
FOR THE LOWLANDS STILL APPEARS ON TRACK...WITH LOWER/MID 60S
EXPECTED FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST OF US TO BRING EASTERLY
FLOW AGAINST THE APPALACHIANS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. MODELS SHOW H850 TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 13C UNDER E-SE FLOW. THIS WILL BRING SOME WARMER TEMPS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME DOWN SLOPING WARMING
CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL OVER THE LOWLANDS. THEREFORE...BUMPED UP
TEMPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THE FLOW WEAKENS THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSEN UP AND A
NEW BROAD HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...SOUTH ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...WV AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LEFT PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK GOOD THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...THE OH VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF WV...TO BRING
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER. THE WARMEST DAY SEEMS TO BE
SUNDAY UNDER NEAR CALM FLOW WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING 80 ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS.

HOWEVER...SOME DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS
MODELS. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A SFC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE US...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A WEAK DISTURBANCE. THE ECMWF
SUGGESTS THE LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THE APPALACHIANS
BRINGING SOME PCPN ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. IF THIS SCENARIO MATERIALIZES...THEN SOME RAIN
SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS NEXT MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE DISCREPANCY AMONG THESE TWO
MODELS...INTRODUCED ONLY LOW POPS ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR
FRIDAY DAY 4 WHICH USED THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS RAW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DENSE VALLEY FOG STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AT 05Z. ANY
FOG WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 13-14Z...FOR A RETURN OF VFR AREA WIDE
WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS.

WILL CONTINUE TO HANG ONTO TEMPORARY CONDITIONS OF FOG ACROSS BKW
THIS MORNING

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              TUE 09/23/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT SHOULD NOT BE
AS WIDESPREAD AS TONIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...50/SL
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...SL









000
FXUS61 KRLX 230220
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1020 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TONIGHT. IT MOVES OFFSHORE MID WEEK
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP ALONG THE APPALACHIANS OR THE EAST COAST.
ANOTHER BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1000 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...QUIET WEATHER IN THE NEAR-TERM PERIOD WITH
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS FROM PREV FCST PER LATEST GUIDANCE. SOME
LINGERING LOW STRATUS MAINLY IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AT THE
OUTSET OF THE PERIOD 00Z TUE THIS EVE WILL QUICKLY BE ERODING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...RESULTING IN A
CLEAR AND CALM OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND LOW TEMPS DROPPING GENERALLY
INTO THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...WITH SOME LOW/MID 30S FOR
THE NORMALLY- FAVORED HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEY LOCATIONS IN
RANDOLPH/POCAHONTAS COUNTIES. AT THIS POINT...NOT ANTICIPATING
THOSE LOWEST TEMPS TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FROST
HIGHLIGHT...BUT WILL REASSESS AS 12Z DATA COMES IN TODAY. DO
EXPECT TO SEE SOME FROST AT LEAST IN THOSE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
SPOTS HOWEVER...AND WILL AT LEAST CONTINUE PATCHY FROST MENTION IN
CURRENT HWO TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE TUESDAY AS ITS CENTER
CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD JUST TO OUR NORTH...WITH SFC
WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE. MEANWHILE UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE MISS VALLEY CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY WITH FLOW ALOFT
BECOMING NEARLY DUE-NORTH. ANY EARLY MORNING FOG WILL QUICKLY
SCATTER...WITH A VIRTUALLY CLEAR SKY ON TUESDAY FOR MOST AND PERHAPS
A FEW FLAT-CU IN THE MOUNTAINS. MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S
FOR THE LOWLANDS STILL APPEARS ON TRACK...WITH LOWER/MID 60S
EXPECTED FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST OF US TO BRING EASTERLY
FLOW AGAINST THE APPALACHIANS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. MODELS SHOW H850 TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 13C UNDER E-SE FLOW. THIS WILL BRING SOME WARMER TEMPS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME DOWN SLOPING WARMING
CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL OVER THE LOWLANDS. THEREFORE...BUMPED UP
TEMPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THE FLOW WEAKENS THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSEN UP AND A
NEW BROAD HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...SOUTH ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...WV AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LEFT PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK GOOD THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...THE OH VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF WV...TO BRING
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER. THE WARMEST DAY SEEMS TO BE
SUNDAY UNDER NEAR CALM FLOW WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING 80 ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS.

HOWEVER...SOME DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS
MODELS. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A SFC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE US...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A WEAK DISTURBANCE. THE ECMWF
SUGGESTS THE LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THE APPALACHIANS
BRINGING SOME PCPN ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. IF THIS SCENARIO MATERIALIZES...THEN SOME RAIN
SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS NEXT MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE DISCREPANCY AMONG THESE TWO
MODELS...INTRODUCED ONLY LOW POPS ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR
FRIDAY DAY 4 WHICH USED THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS RAW.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL HANGING ONTO MVFR CIG AT BKW...BUT EXPECT THIS TO DISSIPATE
QUICKLY. DID INCLUDE A ONE HOUR TEMPO TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WHICH WILL GIVE WAY TO
DENSE VALLEY FOG. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST THAT EKN SHOULD BE
FOG INSTEAD OF FROST...SO NO CHANGES TO THAT. DID ADD SOME FOG AT
BKW OVERNIGHT...WITH A LIGHT NE FLOW ENVISION SOME PUFFS OF FOG
DRIFTING DOWN FROM THE NEW RIVER GORGE AREA...GIVING SOME VARIABLE
CONDITIONS AT BKW THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.

FOG WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AFTER 13Z...MAY HAVE JUST A FEW CU
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH A CALM TO LIGHT
NORTH WIND THROUGH DAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  TUE 09/23/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    L    L    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    M

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT SHOULD NOT BE
AS WIDESPREAD AS TONIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...MZ/50
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MZ








000
FXUS61 KRLX 230220
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1020 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TONIGHT. IT MOVES OFFSHORE MID WEEK
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP ALONG THE APPALACHIANS OR THE EAST COAST.
ANOTHER BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1000 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...QUIET WEATHER IN THE NEAR-TERM PERIOD WITH
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS FROM PREV FCST PER LATEST GUIDANCE. SOME
LINGERING LOW STRATUS MAINLY IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AT THE
OUTSET OF THE PERIOD 00Z TUE THIS EVE WILL QUICKLY BE ERODING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...RESULTING IN A
CLEAR AND CALM OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND LOW TEMPS DROPPING GENERALLY
INTO THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...WITH SOME LOW/MID 30S FOR
THE NORMALLY- FAVORED HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEY LOCATIONS IN
RANDOLPH/POCAHONTAS COUNTIES. AT THIS POINT...NOT ANTICIPATING
THOSE LOWEST TEMPS TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FROST
HIGHLIGHT...BUT WILL REASSESS AS 12Z DATA COMES IN TODAY. DO
EXPECT TO SEE SOME FROST AT LEAST IN THOSE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
SPOTS HOWEVER...AND WILL AT LEAST CONTINUE PATCHY FROST MENTION IN
CURRENT HWO TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE TUESDAY AS ITS CENTER
CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD JUST TO OUR NORTH...WITH SFC
WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE. MEANWHILE UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE MISS VALLEY CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY WITH FLOW ALOFT
BECOMING NEARLY DUE-NORTH. ANY EARLY MORNING FOG WILL QUICKLY
SCATTER...WITH A VIRTUALLY CLEAR SKY ON TUESDAY FOR MOST AND PERHAPS
A FEW FLAT-CU IN THE MOUNTAINS. MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S
FOR THE LOWLANDS STILL APPEARS ON TRACK...WITH LOWER/MID 60S
EXPECTED FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST OF US TO BRING EASTERLY
FLOW AGAINST THE APPALACHIANS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. MODELS SHOW H850 TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 13C UNDER E-SE FLOW. THIS WILL BRING SOME WARMER TEMPS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME DOWN SLOPING WARMING
CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL OVER THE LOWLANDS. THEREFORE...BUMPED UP
TEMPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THE FLOW WEAKENS THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSEN UP AND A
NEW BROAD HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...SOUTH ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...WV AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LEFT PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK GOOD THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...THE OH VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF WV...TO BRING
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER. THE WARMEST DAY SEEMS TO BE
SUNDAY UNDER NEAR CALM FLOW WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING 80 ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS.

HOWEVER...SOME DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS
MODELS. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A SFC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE US...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A WEAK DISTURBANCE. THE ECMWF
SUGGESTS THE LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THE APPALACHIANS
BRINGING SOME PCPN ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. IF THIS SCENARIO MATERIALIZES...THEN SOME RAIN
SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS NEXT MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE DISCREPANCY AMONG THESE TWO
MODELS...INTRODUCED ONLY LOW POPS ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR
FRIDAY DAY 4 WHICH USED THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS RAW.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL HANGING ONTO MVFR CIG AT BKW...BUT EXPECT THIS TO DISSIPATE
QUICKLY. DID INCLUDE A ONE HOUR TEMPO TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WHICH WILL GIVE WAY TO
DENSE VALLEY FOG. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST THAT EKN SHOULD BE
FOG INSTEAD OF FROST...SO NO CHANGES TO THAT. DID ADD SOME FOG AT
BKW OVERNIGHT...WITH A LIGHT NE FLOW ENVISION SOME PUFFS OF FOG
DRIFTING DOWN FROM THE NEW RIVER GORGE AREA...GIVING SOME VARIABLE
CONDITIONS AT BKW THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.

FOG WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AFTER 13Z...MAY HAVE JUST A FEW CU
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH A CALM TO LIGHT
NORTH WIND THROUGH DAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  TUE 09/23/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    L    L    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    M

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT SHOULD NOT BE
AS WIDESPREAD AS TONIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...MZ/50
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MZ








000
FXUS61 KRLX 230220
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1020 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TONIGHT. IT MOVES OFFSHORE MID WEEK
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP ALONG THE APPALACHIANS OR THE EAST COAST.
ANOTHER BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1000 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...QUIET WEATHER IN THE NEAR-TERM PERIOD WITH
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS FROM PREV FCST PER LATEST GUIDANCE. SOME
LINGERING LOW STRATUS MAINLY IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AT THE
OUTSET OF THE PERIOD 00Z TUE THIS EVE WILL QUICKLY BE ERODING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...RESULTING IN A
CLEAR AND CALM OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND LOW TEMPS DROPPING GENERALLY
INTO THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...WITH SOME LOW/MID 30S FOR
THE NORMALLY- FAVORED HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEY LOCATIONS IN
RANDOLPH/POCAHONTAS COUNTIES. AT THIS POINT...NOT ANTICIPATING
THOSE LOWEST TEMPS TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FROST
HIGHLIGHT...BUT WILL REASSESS AS 12Z DATA COMES IN TODAY. DO
EXPECT TO SEE SOME FROST AT LEAST IN THOSE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
SPOTS HOWEVER...AND WILL AT LEAST CONTINUE PATCHY FROST MENTION IN
CURRENT HWO TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE TUESDAY AS ITS CENTER
CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD JUST TO OUR NORTH...WITH SFC
WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE. MEANWHILE UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE MISS VALLEY CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY WITH FLOW ALOFT
BECOMING NEARLY DUE-NORTH. ANY EARLY MORNING FOG WILL QUICKLY
SCATTER...WITH A VIRTUALLY CLEAR SKY ON TUESDAY FOR MOST AND PERHAPS
A FEW FLAT-CU IN THE MOUNTAINS. MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S
FOR THE LOWLANDS STILL APPEARS ON TRACK...WITH LOWER/MID 60S
EXPECTED FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST OF US TO BRING EASTERLY
FLOW AGAINST THE APPALACHIANS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. MODELS SHOW H850 TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 13C UNDER E-SE FLOW. THIS WILL BRING SOME WARMER TEMPS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME DOWN SLOPING WARMING
CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL OVER THE LOWLANDS. THEREFORE...BUMPED UP
TEMPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THE FLOW WEAKENS THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSEN UP AND A
NEW BROAD HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...SOUTH ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...WV AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LEFT PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK GOOD THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...THE OH VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF WV...TO BRING
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER. THE WARMEST DAY SEEMS TO BE
SUNDAY UNDER NEAR CALM FLOW WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING 80 ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS.

HOWEVER...SOME DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS
MODELS. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A SFC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE US...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A WEAK DISTURBANCE. THE ECMWF
SUGGESTS THE LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THE APPALACHIANS
BRINGING SOME PCPN ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. IF THIS SCENARIO MATERIALIZES...THEN SOME RAIN
SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS NEXT MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE DISCREPANCY AMONG THESE TWO
MODELS...INTRODUCED ONLY LOW POPS ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR
FRIDAY DAY 4 WHICH USED THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS RAW.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL HANGING ONTO MVFR CIG AT BKW...BUT EXPECT THIS TO DISSIPATE
QUICKLY. DID INCLUDE A ONE HOUR TEMPO TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WHICH WILL GIVE WAY TO
DENSE VALLEY FOG. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST THAT EKN SHOULD BE
FOG INSTEAD OF FROST...SO NO CHANGES TO THAT. DID ADD SOME FOG AT
BKW OVERNIGHT...WITH A LIGHT NE FLOW ENVISION SOME PUFFS OF FOG
DRIFTING DOWN FROM THE NEW RIVER GORGE AREA...GIVING SOME VARIABLE
CONDITIONS AT BKW THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.

FOG WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AFTER 13Z...MAY HAVE JUST A FEW CU
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH A CALM TO LIGHT
NORTH WIND THROUGH DAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  TUE 09/23/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    L    L    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    M

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT SHOULD NOT BE
AS WIDESPREAD AS TONIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...MZ/50
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MZ








000
FXUS61 KRLX 230220
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1020 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TONIGHT. IT MOVES OFFSHORE MID WEEK
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP ALONG THE APPALACHIANS OR THE EAST COAST.
ANOTHER BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1000 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...QUIET WEATHER IN THE NEAR-TERM PERIOD WITH
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS FROM PREV FCST PER LATEST GUIDANCE. SOME
LINGERING LOW STRATUS MAINLY IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AT THE
OUTSET OF THE PERIOD 00Z TUE THIS EVE WILL QUICKLY BE ERODING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...RESULTING IN A
CLEAR AND CALM OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND LOW TEMPS DROPPING GENERALLY
INTO THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...WITH SOME LOW/MID 30S FOR
THE NORMALLY- FAVORED HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEY LOCATIONS IN
RANDOLPH/POCAHONTAS COUNTIES. AT THIS POINT...NOT ANTICIPATING
THOSE LOWEST TEMPS TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FROST
HIGHLIGHT...BUT WILL REASSESS AS 12Z DATA COMES IN TODAY. DO
EXPECT TO SEE SOME FROST AT LEAST IN THOSE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
SPOTS HOWEVER...AND WILL AT LEAST CONTINUE PATCHY FROST MENTION IN
CURRENT HWO TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE TUESDAY AS ITS CENTER
CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD JUST TO OUR NORTH...WITH SFC
WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE. MEANWHILE UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE MISS VALLEY CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY WITH FLOW ALOFT
BECOMING NEARLY DUE-NORTH. ANY EARLY MORNING FOG WILL QUICKLY
SCATTER...WITH A VIRTUALLY CLEAR SKY ON TUESDAY FOR MOST AND PERHAPS
A FEW FLAT-CU IN THE MOUNTAINS. MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S
FOR THE LOWLANDS STILL APPEARS ON TRACK...WITH LOWER/MID 60S
EXPECTED FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST OF US TO BRING EASTERLY
FLOW AGAINST THE APPALACHIANS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. MODELS SHOW H850 TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 13C UNDER E-SE FLOW. THIS WILL BRING SOME WARMER TEMPS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME DOWN SLOPING WARMING
CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL OVER THE LOWLANDS. THEREFORE...BUMPED UP
TEMPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THE FLOW WEAKENS THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSEN UP AND A
NEW BROAD HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...SOUTH ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...WV AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LEFT PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK GOOD THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...THE OH VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF WV...TO BRING
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER. THE WARMEST DAY SEEMS TO BE
SUNDAY UNDER NEAR CALM FLOW WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING 80 ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS.

HOWEVER...SOME DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS
MODELS. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A SFC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE US...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A WEAK DISTURBANCE. THE ECMWF
SUGGESTS THE LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THE APPALACHIANS
BRINGING SOME PCPN ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. IF THIS SCENARIO MATERIALIZES...THEN SOME RAIN
SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS NEXT MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE DISCREPANCY AMONG THESE TWO
MODELS...INTRODUCED ONLY LOW POPS ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR
FRIDAY DAY 4 WHICH USED THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS RAW.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL HANGING ONTO MVFR CIG AT BKW...BUT EXPECT THIS TO DISSIPATE
QUICKLY. DID INCLUDE A ONE HOUR TEMPO TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WHICH WILL GIVE WAY TO
DENSE VALLEY FOG. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST THAT EKN SHOULD BE
FOG INSTEAD OF FROST...SO NO CHANGES TO THAT. DID ADD SOME FOG AT
BKW OVERNIGHT...WITH A LIGHT NE FLOW ENVISION SOME PUFFS OF FOG
DRIFTING DOWN FROM THE NEW RIVER GORGE AREA...GIVING SOME VARIABLE
CONDITIONS AT BKW THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.

FOG WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AFTER 13Z...MAY HAVE JUST A FEW CU
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH A CALM TO LIGHT
NORTH WIND THROUGH DAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  TUE 09/23/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    L    L    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    M

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT SHOULD NOT BE
AS WIDESPREAD AS TONIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...MZ/50
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MZ








000
FXUS61 KRLX 222321
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
721 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TONIGHT. IT MOVES OFFSHORE MID WEEK
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP ALONG THE APPALACHIANS OR THE EAST COAST.
ANOTHER BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
700 PM UPDATE...CLEARED SKY OUT ACROSS LOWLANDS FASTER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...QUIET WEATHER IN THE NEAR-TERM PERIOD WITH
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS FROM PREV FCST PER LATEST GUIDANCE. SOME
LINGERING LOW STRATUS MAINLY IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AT THE
OUTSET OF THE PERIOD 00Z TUE THIS EVE WILL QUICKLY BE ERODING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...RESULTING IN A
CLEAR AND CALM OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND LOW TEMPS DROPPING GENERALLY
INTO THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...WITH SOME LOW/MID 30S FOR
THE NORMALLY- FAVORED HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEY LOCATIONS IN
RANDOLPH/POCAHONTAS COUNTIES. AT THIS POINT...NOT ANTICIPATING
THOSE LOWEST TEMPS TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FROST
HIGHLIGHT...BUT WILL REASSESS AS 12Z DATA COMES IN TODAY. DO
EXPECT TO SEE SOME FROST AT LEAST IN THOSE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
SPOTS HOWEVER...AND WILL AT LEAST CONTINUE PATCHY FROST MENTION IN
CURRENT HWO TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE TUESDAY AS ITS CENTER
CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD JUST TO OUR NORTH...WITH SFC
WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE. MEANWHILE UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE MISS VALLEY CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY WITH FLOW ALOFT
BECOMING NEARLY DUE-NORTH. ANY EARLY MORNING FOG WILL QUICKLY
SCATTER...WITH A VIRTUALLY CLEAR SKY ON TUESDAY FOR MOST AND PERHAPS
A FEW FLAT-CU IN THE MOUNTAINS. MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S
FOR THE LOWLANDS STILL APPEARS ON TRACK...WITH LOWER/MID 60S
EXPECTED FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST OF US TO BRING EASTERLY
FLOW AGAINST THE APPALACHIANS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. MODELS SHOW H850 TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 13C UNDER E-SE FLOW. THIS WILL BRING SOME WARMER TEMPS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME DOWN SLOPING WARMING
CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL OVER THE LOWLANDS. THEREFORE...BUMPED UP
TEMPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THE FLOW WEAKENS THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSEN UP AND A
NEW BROAD HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...SOUTH ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...WV AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LEFT PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK GOOD THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...THE OH VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF WV...TO BRING
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER. THE WARMEST DAY SEEMS TO BE
SUNDAY UNDER NEAR CALM FLOW WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING 80 ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS.

HOWEVER...SOME DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS
MODELS. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A SFC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE US...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A WEAK DISTURBANCE. THE ECMWF
SUGGESTS THE LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THE APPALACHIANS
BRINGING SOME PCPN ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. IF THIS SCENARIO MATERIALIZES...THEN SOME RAIN
SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS NEXT MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE DISCREPANCY AMONG THESE TWO
MODELS...INTRODUCED ONLY LOW POPS ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR
FRIDAY DAY 4 WHICH USED THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS RAW.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL HANGING ONTO MVFR CIG AT BKW...BUT EXPECT THIS TO DISSIPATE
QUICKLY. DID INCLUDE A ONE HOUR TEMPO TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WHICH WILL GIVE WAY TO
DENSE VALLEY FOG. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST THAT EKN SHOULD BE
FOG INSTEAD OF FROST...SO NO CHANGES TO THAT. DID ADD SOME FOG AT
BKW OVERNIGHT...WITH A LIGHT NE FLOW ENVISION SOME PUFFS OF FOG
DRIFTING DOWN FROM THE NEW RIVER GORGE AREA...GIVING SOME VARIABLE
CONDITIONS AT BKW THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.

FOG WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AFTER 13Z...MAY HAVE JUST A FEW CU
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH A CALM TO LIGHT
NORTH WIND THROUGH DAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT SHOULD NOT BE
AS WIDESPREAD AS TONIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...MZ/50
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MZ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 222321
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
721 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TONIGHT. IT MOVES OFFSHORE MID WEEK
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP ALONG THE APPALACHIANS OR THE EAST COAST.
ANOTHER BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
700 PM UPDATE...CLEARED SKY OUT ACROSS LOWLANDS FASTER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...QUIET WEATHER IN THE NEAR-TERM PERIOD WITH
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS FROM PREV FCST PER LATEST GUIDANCE. SOME
LINGERING LOW STRATUS MAINLY IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AT THE
OUTSET OF THE PERIOD 00Z TUE THIS EVE WILL QUICKLY BE ERODING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...RESULTING IN A
CLEAR AND CALM OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND LOW TEMPS DROPPING GENERALLY
INTO THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...WITH SOME LOW/MID 30S FOR
THE NORMALLY- FAVORED HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEY LOCATIONS IN
RANDOLPH/POCAHONTAS COUNTIES. AT THIS POINT...NOT ANTICIPATING
THOSE LOWEST TEMPS TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FROST
HIGHLIGHT...BUT WILL REASSESS AS 12Z DATA COMES IN TODAY. DO
EXPECT TO SEE SOME FROST AT LEAST IN THOSE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
SPOTS HOWEVER...AND WILL AT LEAST CONTINUE PATCHY FROST MENTION IN
CURRENT HWO TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE TUESDAY AS ITS CENTER
CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD JUST TO OUR NORTH...WITH SFC
WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE. MEANWHILE UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE MISS VALLEY CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY WITH FLOW ALOFT
BECOMING NEARLY DUE-NORTH. ANY EARLY MORNING FOG WILL QUICKLY
SCATTER...WITH A VIRTUALLY CLEAR SKY ON TUESDAY FOR MOST AND PERHAPS
A FEW FLAT-CU IN THE MOUNTAINS. MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S
FOR THE LOWLANDS STILL APPEARS ON TRACK...WITH LOWER/MID 60S
EXPECTED FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST OF US TO BRING EASTERLY
FLOW AGAINST THE APPALACHIANS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. MODELS SHOW H850 TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 13C UNDER E-SE FLOW. THIS WILL BRING SOME WARMER TEMPS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME DOWN SLOPING WARMING
CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL OVER THE LOWLANDS. THEREFORE...BUMPED UP
TEMPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THE FLOW WEAKENS THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSEN UP AND A
NEW BROAD HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...SOUTH ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...WV AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LEFT PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK GOOD THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...THE OH VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF WV...TO BRING
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER. THE WARMEST DAY SEEMS TO BE
SUNDAY UNDER NEAR CALM FLOW WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING 80 ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS.

HOWEVER...SOME DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS
MODELS. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A SFC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE US...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A WEAK DISTURBANCE. THE ECMWF
SUGGESTS THE LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THE APPALACHIANS
BRINGING SOME PCPN ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. IF THIS SCENARIO MATERIALIZES...THEN SOME RAIN
SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS NEXT MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE DISCREPANCY AMONG THESE TWO
MODELS...INTRODUCED ONLY LOW POPS ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR
FRIDAY DAY 4 WHICH USED THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS RAW.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL HANGING ONTO MVFR CIG AT BKW...BUT EXPECT THIS TO DISSIPATE
QUICKLY. DID INCLUDE A ONE HOUR TEMPO TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WHICH WILL GIVE WAY TO
DENSE VALLEY FOG. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST THAT EKN SHOULD BE
FOG INSTEAD OF FROST...SO NO CHANGES TO THAT. DID ADD SOME FOG AT
BKW OVERNIGHT...WITH A LIGHT NE FLOW ENVISION SOME PUFFS OF FOG
DRIFTING DOWN FROM THE NEW RIVER GORGE AREA...GIVING SOME VARIABLE
CONDITIONS AT BKW THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.

FOG WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AFTER 13Z...MAY HAVE JUST A FEW CU
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH A CALM TO LIGHT
NORTH WIND THROUGH DAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT SHOULD NOT BE
AS WIDESPREAD AS TONIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...MZ/50
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MZ








000
FXUS61 KRLX 221806 CCA
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
146 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TONIGHT. IT MOVES OFFSHORE MID WEEK
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP ALONG THE APPALACHIANS OR THE EAST COAST.
ANOTHER BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER IN THE NEAR-TERM PERIOD WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS FROM
PREV FCST PER LATEST GUIDANCE. SOME LINGERING LOW STRATUS MAINLY IN
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AT THE OUTSET OF THE PERIOD 00Z TUE THIS EVE
WILL QUICKLY BE ERODING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST...RESULTING IN A CLEAR AND CALM OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND LOW
TEMPS DROPPING GENERALLY INTO THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...WITH
SOME LOW/MID 30S FOR THE NORMALLY-FAVORED HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEY
LOCATIONS IN RANDOLPH/POCAHONTAS COUNTIES. AT THIS POINT...NOT
ANTICIPATING THOSE LOWEST TEMPS TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
FROST HIGHLIGHT...BUT WILL REASSESS AS 12Z DATA COMES IN TODAY. DO
EXPECT TO SEE SOME FROST AT LEAST IN THOSE AFOREMENTIONED COLD SPOTS
HOWEVER...AND WILL AT LEAST CONTINUE PATCHY FROST MENTION IN CURRENT
HWO TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE TUESDAY AS ITS CENTER
CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD JUST TO OUR NORTH...WITH SFC
WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE. MEANWHILE UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE MISS VALLEY CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY WITH FLOW ALOFT
BECOMING NEARLY DUE-NORTH. ANY EARLY MORNING FOG WILL QUICKLY
SCATTER...WITH A VIRTUALLY CLEAR SKY ON TUESDAY FOR MOST AND PERHAPS
A FEW FLAT-CU IN THE MOUNTAINS. MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S
FOR THE LOWLANDS STILL APPEARS ON TRACK...WITH LOWER/MID 60S
EXPECTED FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST OF US TO BRING EASTERLY
FLOW AGAINST THE APPALACHIANS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. MODELS SHOW H850 TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 13C UNDER E-SE FLOW. THIS WILL BRING SOME WARMER TEMPS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME DOWN SLOPING WARMING
CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL OVER THE LOWLANDS. THEREFORE...BUMPED UP
TEMPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THE FLOW WEAKENS THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSEN UP AND A
NEW BROAD HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...SOUTH ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...WV AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LEFT PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK GOOD THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...THE OH VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF WV...TO BRING
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER. THE WARMEST DAY SEEMS TO BE
SUNDAY UNDER NEAR CALM FLOW WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING 80 ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS.

HOWEVER...SOME DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS
MODELS. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A SFC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE US...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A WEAK DISTURBANCE. THE ECMWF
SUGGESTS THE LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THE APPALACHIANS
BRINGING SOME PCPN ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. IF THIS SCENARIO MATERIALIZES...THEN SOME RAIN
SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS NEXT MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE DISCREPANCY AMONG THESE TWO
MODELS...INTRODUCED ONLY LOW POPS ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR
FRIDAY DAY 4 WHICH USED THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS RAW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CURRENT MVFR CIGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SLOWLY RISE AND/OR SCATTER DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
HOURS..FIRST ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AROUND THE 19Z-21Z TIME
FRAME...FOLLOWED BY THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AROUND 22Z-23Z.

HIGH PRESSURE OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN DENSE VALLEY FOG BY
AND AFTER 06Z TUE FOR MOST LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE JUST A
BIT MORE IN QUESTION FOR EKN WHERE TEMPS DOWN IN THE MID 30S MAY
RESULT IN FROST AS OPPOSED TO FOG. FOR NOW WILL KEEP FOG AT EKN AND
ALLOW NEXT SHIFT TO REASSESS.

ANY FOG AND/OR REDUCTION IN VSBYS WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE BTWN
14Z-15Z TUE...WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID
PERIOD AND A LIGHT NORTH WIND.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: BEHAVIOR AND EVENTUAL BREAK UP OF MVFR CIGS MAY
VARY. TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...50












000
FXUS61 KRLX 221806 CCA
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
146 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TONIGHT. IT MOVES OFFSHORE MID WEEK
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP ALONG THE APPALACHIANS OR THE EAST COAST.
ANOTHER BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER IN THE NEAR-TERM PERIOD WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS FROM
PREV FCST PER LATEST GUIDANCE. SOME LINGERING LOW STRATUS MAINLY IN
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AT THE OUTSET OF THE PERIOD 00Z TUE THIS EVE
WILL QUICKLY BE ERODING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST...RESULTING IN A CLEAR AND CALM OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND LOW
TEMPS DROPPING GENERALLY INTO THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...WITH
SOME LOW/MID 30S FOR THE NORMALLY-FAVORED HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEY
LOCATIONS IN RANDOLPH/POCAHONTAS COUNTIES. AT THIS POINT...NOT
ANTICIPATING THOSE LOWEST TEMPS TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
FROST HIGHLIGHT...BUT WILL REASSESS AS 12Z DATA COMES IN TODAY. DO
EXPECT TO SEE SOME FROST AT LEAST IN THOSE AFOREMENTIONED COLD SPOTS
HOWEVER...AND WILL AT LEAST CONTINUE PATCHY FROST MENTION IN CURRENT
HWO TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE TUESDAY AS ITS CENTER
CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD JUST TO OUR NORTH...WITH SFC
WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE. MEANWHILE UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE MISS VALLEY CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY WITH FLOW ALOFT
BECOMING NEARLY DUE-NORTH. ANY EARLY MORNING FOG WILL QUICKLY
SCATTER...WITH A VIRTUALLY CLEAR SKY ON TUESDAY FOR MOST AND PERHAPS
A FEW FLAT-CU IN THE MOUNTAINS. MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S
FOR THE LOWLANDS STILL APPEARS ON TRACK...WITH LOWER/MID 60S
EXPECTED FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST OF US TO BRING EASTERLY
FLOW AGAINST THE APPALACHIANS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. MODELS SHOW H850 TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 13C UNDER E-SE FLOW. THIS WILL BRING SOME WARMER TEMPS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME DOWN SLOPING WARMING
CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL OVER THE LOWLANDS. THEREFORE...BUMPED UP
TEMPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THE FLOW WEAKENS THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSEN UP AND A
NEW BROAD HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...SOUTH ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...WV AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LEFT PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK GOOD THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...THE OH VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF WV...TO BRING
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER. THE WARMEST DAY SEEMS TO BE
SUNDAY UNDER NEAR CALM FLOW WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING 80 ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS.

HOWEVER...SOME DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS
MODELS. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A SFC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE US...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A WEAK DISTURBANCE. THE ECMWF
SUGGESTS THE LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THE APPALACHIANS
BRINGING SOME PCPN ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. IF THIS SCENARIO MATERIALIZES...THEN SOME RAIN
SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS NEXT MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE DISCREPANCY AMONG THESE TWO
MODELS...INTRODUCED ONLY LOW POPS ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR
FRIDAY DAY 4 WHICH USED THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS RAW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CURRENT MVFR CIGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SLOWLY RISE AND/OR SCATTER DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
HOURS..FIRST ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AROUND THE 19Z-21Z TIME
FRAME...FOLLOWED BY THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AROUND 22Z-23Z.

HIGH PRESSURE OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN DENSE VALLEY FOG BY
AND AFTER 06Z TUE FOR MOST LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE JUST A
BIT MORE IN QUESTION FOR EKN WHERE TEMPS DOWN IN THE MID 30S MAY
RESULT IN FROST AS OPPOSED TO FOG. FOR NOW WILL KEEP FOG AT EKN AND
ALLOW NEXT SHIFT TO REASSESS.

ANY FOG AND/OR REDUCTION IN VSBYS WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE BTWN
14Z-15Z TUE...WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID
PERIOD AND A LIGHT NORTH WIND.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: BEHAVIOR AND EVENTUAL BREAK UP OF MVFR CIGS MAY
VARY. TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...50











000
FXUS61 KRLX 221746
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
146 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TONIGHT. IT MOVES OFFSHORE MID WEEK
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP ALONG THE APPALACHIANS OR THE EAST COAST.
ANOTHER BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER IN THE NEAR-TERM PERIOD WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS FROM
PREV FCST PER LATEST GUIDANCE. SOME LINGERING LOW STRATUS MAINLY IN
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AT THE OUTSET OF THE PERIOD 00Z TUE THIS EVE
WILL QUICKLY BE ERODING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST...RESULTING IN A CLEAR AND CALM OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND LOW
TEMPS DROPPING GENERALLY INTO THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...WITH
SOME LOW/MID 30S FOR THE NORMALLY-FAVORED HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEY
LOCATIONS IN RANDOLPH/POCAHONTAS COUNTIES. AT THIS POINT...NOT
ANTICIPATING THOSE LOWEST TEMPS TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
FROST HIGHLIGHT...BUT WILL REASSESS AS 12Z DATA COMES IN TODAY. DO
EXPECT TO SEE SOME FROST AT LEAST IN THOSE AFOREMENTIONED COLD SPOTS
HOWEVER...AND WILL AT LEAST CONTINUE PATCHY FROST MENTION IN CURRENT
HWO TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE TUESDAY AS ITS CENTER
CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD JUST TO OUR NORTH...WITH SFC
WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE. MEANWHILE UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE MISS VALLEY CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY WITH FLOW ALOFT
BECOMING NEARLY DUE-NORTH. ANY EARLY MORNING FOG WILL QUICKLY
SCATTER...WITH A VIRTUALLY CLEAR SKY ON TUESDAY FOR MOST AND PERHAPS
A FEW FLAT-CU IN THE MOUNTAINS. MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S
FOR THE LOWLANDS STILL APPEARS ON TRACK...WITH LOWER/MID 60S
EXPECTED FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST OF US TO BRING EASTERLY
FLOW AGAINST THE APPALACHIANS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. MODELS SHOW H850 TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 13C UNDER E-SE FLOW. THIS WILL BRING SOME WARMER TEMPS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME DOWN SLOPING WARMING
CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL OVER THE LOWLANDS. THEREFORE...BUMPED UP
TEMPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THE FLOW WEAKENS THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSEN UP AND A
NEW BROAD HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...SOUTH ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...WV AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LEFT PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK GOOD THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...THE OH VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF WV...TO BRING
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER. THE WARMEST DAY SEEMS TO BE
SUNDAY UNDER NEAR CALM FLOW WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING 80 ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS.

HOWEVER...SOME DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS
MODELS. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A SFC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE US...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A WEAK DISTURBANCE. THE ECMWF
SUGGESTS THE LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THE APPALACHIANS
BRINGING SOME PCPN ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. IF THIS SCENARIO MATERIALIZES...THEN SOME RAIN
SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS NEXT MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE DISCREPANCY AMONG THESE TWO
MODELS...INTRODUCED ONLY LOW POPS ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR
FRIDAY DAY 4 WHICH USED THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS RAW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CURRENT MVFR CIGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SLOWLY RISE AND/OR SCATTER DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
HOURS..FIRST ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AROUND THE 19Z-21Z TIME
FRAME...FOLLOWED BY THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AROUND 22Z-23Z.

HIGH PRESSURE OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN DENSE VALLEY FOG BY
AND AFTER 06Z TUE FOR MOST LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE JUST A
BIT MORE IN QUESTION FOR EKN WHERE TEMPS DOWN IN THE MID 30S MAY
RESULT IN FROST AS OPPOSED TO FOG. FOR NOW WILL KEEP FOG AT EKN AND
ALLOW NEXT SHIFT TO REASSESS.

ANY FOG AND/OR REDUCTION IN VSBYS WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE BTWN
14Z-15Z TUE...WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID
PERIOD AND A LIGHT NORTH WIND.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: BEHAVIOR AND EVENTUAL BREAK UP OF MVFR CIGS MAY
VARY. TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IN THE CHILLY AIR...LOCAL IFR VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVERS AND IN BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...50









000
FXUS61 KRLX 221433
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1033 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  IT
MOVES OFFSHORE MID WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EAST
COAST...ONLY TO REBUILD OVER THE AREA LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK.

645 AM UPDATE...
SNUCK IN SPRINKLES UP N AND DOWN THE MOUNTAINS OUTSIDE THE SCHC AREA
EARLIER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NUMEROUS OBSERVATIONS OF HYDROMETEORS IN
THE MOIST LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING.  OTHERWISE
FCST ON TRACK.

PREV DISCN...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING BENEATH
POST FRONTAL INVERSION IN WRAP AROUND CYCLONIC FLOW.  MODELS DO NOT
PICK UP ON ANY OF THE RAIN DOTTING THE MIDDLE AND UPPER OHIO VALLEYS
EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT DO REFLECT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING.

FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC ALL THE WAY UP THROUGH THE MID
LEVELS TODAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W.  MOISTURE
BECOMES LIMITED TO A SHALLOW LAYER BENEATH THE INVERSION BEFORE
DRYING OUT ALTOGETHER BY THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING A CLEAR...CALM NT
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN VALLEY FOG...ALONG WITH PATCHY FROST IN THE
BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS ALTHOUGH NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY.

HIGHS ARE BELOW GUIDANCE IN AIR MASS OF CANADIAN ORIGIN BENEATH THE
CLOUDS AND FRONTAL INVERSION TODAY...AND LOWS BETWEEN THE HIGHER MET
AND LOWER MAV TONIGHT.  THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED BUT DID USE
THE MET TO LOWER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY A BIT TONIGHT WHILE MAKING
CERTAIN NOT TO RAISE LOWS ANYWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE...WITH A CLEAR SKY...COOL NIGHTS...AND WARM DAYS
EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. TEMPS WILL WARM NICELY ON
WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. A FEW
CLOUDS MAY SEEP IN ACROSS EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY...AS A LOW MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST...BUT AREA
SHOULD REMAIN DRY. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY AND
ALLOW A MODEST INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...UPPER RIDGING ALOFT WILL HOLD.
SO WHILE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN AS TIME GOES ON...THE
PROSPECTS OF ANY RAIN ARE VERY LOW AT BEST. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BANKING UP AGAINST EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL ONLY
BRING INCREASED CLOUDS BY THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...SUNSHINE WILL
DOMINATE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND
WITH HIGHS TO AROUND 80 BY THE WEEKEND AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S
IN THE LOW LANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CIGS IN STRATOCU WERE QUITE VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
SHOULD SETTLE INTO LOWER PORTION OF MVFR RANGE ON MIXING AFTER
SUNRISE THIS MORNING. BRIEF MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE MAINLY IN THE NRN MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING
SHOULD END BY MID MORNING /14Z OR SO/.

THESE CIGS WILL GRADUALLY CLIMB MIDDAY TODAY...BUT REMAIN IN MVFR
RANGE INTO THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE NRN WV
MOUNTAINS...BEFORE BREAKING UP.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WILL BRING CLEAR AND
CALM CONDITIONS...WITH DENSE VALLEY FOG LIKELY FORMING AFTER 06Z TUE.

LIGHT NW SFC FLOW TODAY WILL BECOME CALM TONIGHT.  LIGHT TO MODERATE
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL DIMINISH TODAY AND BECOME LIGHT N TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: BEHAVIOR AND EVENTUAL BREAK UP OF MVFR CIGS MAY
VARY...AS MAY LOWEST VALUES INCLUDING BORDERLINE IFR IN THE
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING.  TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IN THE CHILLY AIR...LOCAL IFR VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVERS AND IN BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/50
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...TRM









000
FXUS61 KRLX 221433
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1033 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  IT
MOVES OFFSHORE MID WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EAST
COAST...ONLY TO REBUILD OVER THE AREA LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK.

645 AM UPDATE...
SNUCK IN SPRINKLES UP N AND DOWN THE MOUNTAINS OUTSIDE THE SCHC AREA
EARLIER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NUMEROUS OBSERVATIONS OF HYDROMETEORS IN
THE MOIST LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING.  OTHERWISE
FCST ON TRACK.

PREV DISCN...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING BENEATH
POST FRONTAL INVERSION IN WRAP AROUND CYCLONIC FLOW.  MODELS DO NOT
PICK UP ON ANY OF THE RAIN DOTTING THE MIDDLE AND UPPER OHIO VALLEYS
EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT DO REFLECT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING.

FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC ALL THE WAY UP THROUGH THE MID
LEVELS TODAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W.  MOISTURE
BECOMES LIMITED TO A SHALLOW LAYER BENEATH THE INVERSION BEFORE
DRYING OUT ALTOGETHER BY THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING A CLEAR...CALM NT
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN VALLEY FOG...ALONG WITH PATCHY FROST IN THE
BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS ALTHOUGH NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY.

HIGHS ARE BELOW GUIDANCE IN AIR MASS OF CANADIAN ORIGIN BENEATH THE
CLOUDS AND FRONTAL INVERSION TODAY...AND LOWS BETWEEN THE HIGHER MET
AND LOWER MAV TONIGHT.  THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED BUT DID USE
THE MET TO LOWER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY A BIT TONIGHT WHILE MAKING
CERTAIN NOT TO RAISE LOWS ANYWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE...WITH A CLEAR SKY...COOL NIGHTS...AND WARM DAYS
EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. TEMPS WILL WARM NICELY ON
WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. A FEW
CLOUDS MAY SEEP IN ACROSS EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY...AS A LOW MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST...BUT AREA
SHOULD REMAIN DRY. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY AND
ALLOW A MODEST INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...UPPER RIDGING ALOFT WILL HOLD.
SO WHILE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN AS TIME GOES ON...THE
PROSPECTS OF ANY RAIN ARE VERY LOW AT BEST. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BANKING UP AGAINST EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL ONLY
BRING INCREASED CLOUDS BY THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...SUNSHINE WILL
DOMINATE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND
WITH HIGHS TO AROUND 80 BY THE WEEKEND AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S
IN THE LOW LANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CIGS IN STRATOCU WERE QUITE VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
SHOULD SETTLE INTO LOWER PORTION OF MVFR RANGE ON MIXING AFTER
SUNRISE THIS MORNING. BRIEF MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE MAINLY IN THE NRN MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING
SHOULD END BY MID MORNING /14Z OR SO/.

THESE CIGS WILL GRADUALLY CLIMB MIDDAY TODAY...BUT REMAIN IN MVFR
RANGE INTO THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE NRN WV
MOUNTAINS...BEFORE BREAKING UP.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WILL BRING CLEAR AND
CALM CONDITIONS...WITH DENSE VALLEY FOG LIKELY FORMING AFTER 06Z TUE.

LIGHT NW SFC FLOW TODAY WILL BECOME CALM TONIGHT.  LIGHT TO MODERATE
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL DIMINISH TODAY AND BECOME LIGHT N TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: BEHAVIOR AND EVENTUAL BREAK UP OF MVFR CIGS MAY
VARY...AS MAY LOWEST VALUES INCLUDING BORDERLINE IFR IN THE
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING.  TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IN THE CHILLY AIR...LOCAL IFR VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVERS AND IN BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/50
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...TRM









000
FXUS61 KRLX 221433
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1033 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  IT
MOVES OFFSHORE MID WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EAST
COAST...ONLY TO REBUILD OVER THE AREA LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK.

645 AM UPDATE...
SNUCK IN SPRINKLES UP N AND DOWN THE MOUNTAINS OUTSIDE THE SCHC AREA
EARLIER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NUMEROUS OBSERVATIONS OF HYDROMETEORS IN
THE MOIST LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING.  OTHERWISE
FCST ON TRACK.

PREV DISCN...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING BENEATH
POST FRONTAL INVERSION IN WRAP AROUND CYCLONIC FLOW.  MODELS DO NOT
PICK UP ON ANY OF THE RAIN DOTTING THE MIDDLE AND UPPER OHIO VALLEYS
EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT DO REFLECT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING.

FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC ALL THE WAY UP THROUGH THE MID
LEVELS TODAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W.  MOISTURE
BECOMES LIMITED TO A SHALLOW LAYER BENEATH THE INVERSION BEFORE
DRYING OUT ALTOGETHER BY THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING A CLEAR...CALM NT
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN VALLEY FOG...ALONG WITH PATCHY FROST IN THE
BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS ALTHOUGH NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY.

HIGHS ARE BELOW GUIDANCE IN AIR MASS OF CANADIAN ORIGIN BENEATH THE
CLOUDS AND FRONTAL INVERSION TODAY...AND LOWS BETWEEN THE HIGHER MET
AND LOWER MAV TONIGHT.  THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED BUT DID USE
THE MET TO LOWER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY A BIT TONIGHT WHILE MAKING
CERTAIN NOT TO RAISE LOWS ANYWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE...WITH A CLEAR SKY...COOL NIGHTS...AND WARM DAYS
EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. TEMPS WILL WARM NICELY ON
WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. A FEW
CLOUDS MAY SEEP IN ACROSS EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY...AS A LOW MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST...BUT AREA
SHOULD REMAIN DRY. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY AND
ALLOW A MODEST INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...UPPER RIDGING ALOFT WILL HOLD.
SO WHILE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN AS TIME GOES ON...THE
PROSPECTS OF ANY RAIN ARE VERY LOW AT BEST. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BANKING UP AGAINST EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL ONLY
BRING INCREASED CLOUDS BY THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...SUNSHINE WILL
DOMINATE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND
WITH HIGHS TO AROUND 80 BY THE WEEKEND AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S
IN THE LOW LANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CIGS IN STRATOCU WERE QUITE VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
SHOULD SETTLE INTO LOWER PORTION OF MVFR RANGE ON MIXING AFTER
SUNRISE THIS MORNING. BRIEF MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE MAINLY IN THE NRN MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING
SHOULD END BY MID MORNING /14Z OR SO/.

THESE CIGS WILL GRADUALLY CLIMB MIDDAY TODAY...BUT REMAIN IN MVFR
RANGE INTO THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE NRN WV
MOUNTAINS...BEFORE BREAKING UP.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WILL BRING CLEAR AND
CALM CONDITIONS...WITH DENSE VALLEY FOG LIKELY FORMING AFTER 06Z TUE.

LIGHT NW SFC FLOW TODAY WILL BECOME CALM TONIGHT.  LIGHT TO MODERATE
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL DIMINISH TODAY AND BECOME LIGHT N TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: BEHAVIOR AND EVENTUAL BREAK UP OF MVFR CIGS MAY
VARY...AS MAY LOWEST VALUES INCLUDING BORDERLINE IFR IN THE
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING.  TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IN THE CHILLY AIR...LOCAL IFR VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVERS AND IN BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/50
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...TRM









000
FXUS61 KRLX 221433
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1033 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  IT
MOVES OFFSHORE MID WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EAST
COAST...ONLY TO REBUILD OVER THE AREA LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK.

645 AM UPDATE...
SNUCK IN SPRINKLES UP N AND DOWN THE MOUNTAINS OUTSIDE THE SCHC AREA
EARLIER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NUMEROUS OBSERVATIONS OF HYDROMETEORS IN
THE MOIST LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING.  OTHERWISE
FCST ON TRACK.

PREV DISCN...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING BENEATH
POST FRONTAL INVERSION IN WRAP AROUND CYCLONIC FLOW.  MODELS DO NOT
PICK UP ON ANY OF THE RAIN DOTTING THE MIDDLE AND UPPER OHIO VALLEYS
EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT DO REFLECT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING.

FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC ALL THE WAY UP THROUGH THE MID
LEVELS TODAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W.  MOISTURE
BECOMES LIMITED TO A SHALLOW LAYER BENEATH THE INVERSION BEFORE
DRYING OUT ALTOGETHER BY THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING A CLEAR...CALM NT
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN VALLEY FOG...ALONG WITH PATCHY FROST IN THE
BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS ALTHOUGH NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY.

HIGHS ARE BELOW GUIDANCE IN AIR MASS OF CANADIAN ORIGIN BENEATH THE
CLOUDS AND FRONTAL INVERSION TODAY...AND LOWS BETWEEN THE HIGHER MET
AND LOWER MAV TONIGHT.  THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED BUT DID USE
THE MET TO LOWER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY A BIT TONIGHT WHILE MAKING
CERTAIN NOT TO RAISE LOWS ANYWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE...WITH A CLEAR SKY...COOL NIGHTS...AND WARM DAYS
EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. TEMPS WILL WARM NICELY ON
WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. A FEW
CLOUDS MAY SEEP IN ACROSS EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY...AS A LOW MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST...BUT AREA
SHOULD REMAIN DRY. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY AND
ALLOW A MODEST INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...UPPER RIDGING ALOFT WILL HOLD.
SO WHILE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN AS TIME GOES ON...THE
PROSPECTS OF ANY RAIN ARE VERY LOW AT BEST. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BANKING UP AGAINST EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL ONLY
BRING INCREASED CLOUDS BY THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...SUNSHINE WILL
DOMINATE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND
WITH HIGHS TO AROUND 80 BY THE WEEKEND AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S
IN THE LOW LANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CIGS IN STRATOCU WERE QUITE VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
SHOULD SETTLE INTO LOWER PORTION OF MVFR RANGE ON MIXING AFTER
SUNRISE THIS MORNING. BRIEF MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE MAINLY IN THE NRN MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING
SHOULD END BY MID MORNING /14Z OR SO/.

THESE CIGS WILL GRADUALLY CLIMB MIDDAY TODAY...BUT REMAIN IN MVFR
RANGE INTO THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE NRN WV
MOUNTAINS...BEFORE BREAKING UP.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WILL BRING CLEAR AND
CALM CONDITIONS...WITH DENSE VALLEY FOG LIKELY FORMING AFTER 06Z TUE.

LIGHT NW SFC FLOW TODAY WILL BECOME CALM TONIGHT.  LIGHT TO MODERATE
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL DIMINISH TODAY AND BECOME LIGHT N TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: BEHAVIOR AND EVENTUAL BREAK UP OF MVFR CIGS MAY
VARY...AS MAY LOWEST VALUES INCLUDING BORDERLINE IFR IN THE
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING.  TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IN THE CHILLY AIR...LOCAL IFR VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVERS AND IN BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/50
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...TRM









000
FXUS61 KRLX 221139 CCA
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
655 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  IT
MOVES OFFSHORE MID WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EAST
COAST...ONLY TO REBUILD OVER THE AREA LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
645 AM UPDATE...
SNUCK IN SPRINKLES UP N AND DOWN THE MOUNTAINS OUTSIDE THE SCHC AREA
EARLIER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NUMEROUS OBSERVATIONS OF HYDROMETEORS IN
THE MOIST LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING.  OTHERWISE
FCST ON TRACK.

PREV DISCN...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING BENEATH
POST FRONTAL INVERSION IN WRAP AROUND CYCLONIC FLOW.  MODELS DO NOT
PICK UP ON ANY OF THE RAIN DOTTING THE MIDDLE AND UPPER OHIO VALLEYS
EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT DO REFLECT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING.

FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC ALL THE WAY UP THROUGH THE MID
LEVELS TODAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W.  MOISTURE
BECOMES LIMITED TO A SHALLOW LAYER BENEATH THE INVERSION BEFORE
DRYING OUT ALTOGETHER BY THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING A CLEAR...CALM NT
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN VALLEY FOG...ALONG WITH PATCHY FROST IN THE
BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS ALTHOUGH NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY.

HIGHS ARE BELOW GUIDANCE IN AIR MASS OF CANADIAN ORIGIN BENEATH THE
CLOUDS AND FRONTAL INVERSION TODAY...AND LOWS BETWEEN THE HIGHER MET
AND LOWER MAV TONIGHT.  THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED BUT DID USE
THE MET TO LOWER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY A BIT TONIGHT WHILE MAKING
CERTAIN NOT TO RAISE LOWS ANYWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE...WITH A CLEAR SKY...COOL NIGHTS...AND WARM DAYS
EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. TEMPS WILL WARM NICELY ON
WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. A FEW
CLOUDS MAY SEEP IN ACROSS EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY...AS A LOW MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST...BUT AREA
SHOULD REMAIN DRY. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY AND
ALLOW A MODEST INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...UPPER RIDGING ALOFT WILL HOLD.
SO WHILE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN AS TIME GOES ON...THE
PROSPECTS OF ANY RAIN ARE VERY LOW AT BEST. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BANKING UP AGAINST EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL ONLY
BRING INCREASED CLOUDS BY THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...SUNSHINE WILL
DOMINATE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND
WITH HIGHS TO AROUND 80 BY THE WEEKEND AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S
IN THE LOW LANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CIGS IN STRATOCU WERE QUITE VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD
SETTLE INTO LOWER PORTION OF MVFR RANGE ON MIXING AFTER SUNRISE THIS
MORNING.  BRIEF MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR
DRIZZLE MAINLY IN THE NRN MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD END BY
MID MORNING /14Z OR SO/.

THESE CIGS WILL GRADUALLY CLIMB MIDDAY TODAY...BUT REMAIN IN MVFR
RANGE INTO THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE NRN WV
MOUNTAINS...BEFORE BREAKING UP.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WILL BRING CLEAR AND
CALM CONDITIONS...WITH DENSE VALLEY FOG LIKELY FORMING AFTER 06Z TUE.

LIGHT NW SFC FLOW TODAY WILL BECOME CALM TONIGHT.  LIGHT TO MODERATE
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL DIMINISH TODAY AND BECOME LIGHT N TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: BEHAVIOR AND EVENTUAL BREAK UP OF MVFR CIGS MAY
VARY...AS MAY LOWEST VALUES INCLUDING BORDERLINE IFR IN THE
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING.  TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    H    H    M    H    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IN THE CHILLY AIR...LOCAL IFR VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVERS AND IN BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...TRM









000
FXUS61 KRLX 221139 CCA
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
655 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  IT
MOVES OFFSHORE MID WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EAST
COAST...ONLY TO REBUILD OVER THE AREA LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
645 AM UPDATE...
SNUCK IN SPRINKLES UP N AND DOWN THE MOUNTAINS OUTSIDE THE SCHC AREA
EARLIER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NUMEROUS OBSERVATIONS OF HYDROMETEORS IN
THE MOIST LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING.  OTHERWISE
FCST ON TRACK.

PREV DISCN...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING BENEATH
POST FRONTAL INVERSION IN WRAP AROUND CYCLONIC FLOW.  MODELS DO NOT
PICK UP ON ANY OF THE RAIN DOTTING THE MIDDLE AND UPPER OHIO VALLEYS
EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT DO REFLECT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING.

FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC ALL THE WAY UP THROUGH THE MID
LEVELS TODAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W.  MOISTURE
BECOMES LIMITED TO A SHALLOW LAYER BENEATH THE INVERSION BEFORE
DRYING OUT ALTOGETHER BY THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING A CLEAR...CALM NT
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN VALLEY FOG...ALONG WITH PATCHY FROST IN THE
BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS ALTHOUGH NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY.

HIGHS ARE BELOW GUIDANCE IN AIR MASS OF CANADIAN ORIGIN BENEATH THE
CLOUDS AND FRONTAL INVERSION TODAY...AND LOWS BETWEEN THE HIGHER MET
AND LOWER MAV TONIGHT.  THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED BUT DID USE
THE MET TO LOWER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY A BIT TONIGHT WHILE MAKING
CERTAIN NOT TO RAISE LOWS ANYWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE...WITH A CLEAR SKY...COOL NIGHTS...AND WARM DAYS
EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. TEMPS WILL WARM NICELY ON
WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. A FEW
CLOUDS MAY SEEP IN ACROSS EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY...AS A LOW MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST...BUT AREA
SHOULD REMAIN DRY. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY AND
ALLOW A MODEST INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...UPPER RIDGING ALOFT WILL HOLD.
SO WHILE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN AS TIME GOES ON...THE
PROSPECTS OF ANY RAIN ARE VERY LOW AT BEST. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BANKING UP AGAINST EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL ONLY
BRING INCREASED CLOUDS BY THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...SUNSHINE WILL
DOMINATE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND
WITH HIGHS TO AROUND 80 BY THE WEEKEND AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S
IN THE LOW LANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CIGS IN STRATOCU WERE QUITE VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD
SETTLE INTO LOWER PORTION OF MVFR RANGE ON MIXING AFTER SUNRISE THIS
MORNING.  BRIEF MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR
DRIZZLE MAINLY IN THE NRN MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD END BY
MID MORNING /14Z OR SO/.

THESE CIGS WILL GRADUALLY CLIMB MIDDAY TODAY...BUT REMAIN IN MVFR
RANGE INTO THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE NRN WV
MOUNTAINS...BEFORE BREAKING UP.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WILL BRING CLEAR AND
CALM CONDITIONS...WITH DENSE VALLEY FOG LIKELY FORMING AFTER 06Z TUE.

LIGHT NW SFC FLOW TODAY WILL BECOME CALM TONIGHT.  LIGHT TO MODERATE
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL DIMINISH TODAY AND BECOME LIGHT N TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: BEHAVIOR AND EVENTUAL BREAK UP OF MVFR CIGS MAY
VARY...AS MAY LOWEST VALUES INCLUDING BORDERLINE IFR IN THE
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING.  TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    H    H    M    H    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IN THE CHILLY AIR...LOCAL IFR VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVERS AND IN BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...TRM










000
FXUS61 KRLX 221055
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
655 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  IT
MOVES OFFSHORE MID WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EAST
COAST...ONLY TO REBUILD OVER THE AREA LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
645 AM UPDATE...
SNUCK IN SPRINKLES UP N AND DOWN THE MOUNTAINS OUTSIDE THE SCHC AREA
EARLIER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NUMEROUS OBSERVATIONS OF HYDROMETEORS IN
THE MOIST LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING.  OTHERWISE
FCST ON TRACK.

PREV DISCN...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING BENEATH
POST FRONTAL INVERSION IN WRAP AROUND CYCLONIC FLOW.  MODELS DO NOT
PICK UP ON ANY OF THE RAIN DOTTING THE MIDDLE AND UPPER OHIO VALLEYS
EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT DO REFLECT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING.

FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC ALL THE WAY UP THROUGH THE MID
LEVELS TODAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W.  MOISTURE
BECOMES LIMITED TO A SHALLOW LAYER BENEATH THE INVERSION BEFORE
DRYING OUT ALTOGETHER BY THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING A CLEAR...CALM NT
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN VALLEY FOG...ALONG WITH PATCHY FROST IN THE
BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS ALTHOUGH NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY.

HIGHS ARE BELOW GUIDANCE IN AIR MASS OF CANADIAN ORIGIN BENEATH THE
CLOUDS AND FRONTAL INVERSION TODAY...AND LOWS BETWEEN THE HIGHER MET
AND LOWER MAV TONIGHT.  THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED BUT DID USE
THE MET TO LOWER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY A BIT TONIGHT WHILE MAKING
CERTAIN NOT TO RAISE LOWS ANYWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE...WITH A CLEAR SKY...COOL NIGHTS...AND WARM DAYS
EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. TEMPS WILL WARM NICELY ON
WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. A FEW
CLOUDS MAY SEEP IN ACROSS EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY...AS A LOW MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST...BUT AREA
SHOULD REMAIN DRY. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY AND
ALLOW A MODEST INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...UPPER RIDGING ALOFT WILL HOLD.
SO WHILE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN AS TIME GOES ON...THE
PROSPECTS OF ANY RAIN ARE VERY LOW AT BEST. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BANKING UP AGAINST EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL ONLY
BRING INCREASED CLOUDS BY THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...SUNSHINE WILL
DOMINATE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND
WITH HIGHS TO AROUND 80 BY THE WEEKEND AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S
IN THE LOW LANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CIGS IN STRATOCU WERE QUITE VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD
SETTLE INTO LOWER PORTION OF MVFR RANGE ON MIXING AFTER SUNRISE THIS
MORNING.  BRIEF MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR
DRIZZLE MAINLY IN THE NRN MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD END BY
MID MORNING /14Z OR SO/.

THESE CIGS WILL GRADUALLY CLIMB MIDDAY TODAY...BUT REMAIN IN MVFR
RANGE INTO THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE NRN WV
MOUNTAINS...BEFORE BREAKING UP.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WILL BRING CLEAR AND
CALM CONDITIONS...WITH DENSE VALLEY FOG LIKELY FORMING AFTER 06Z TUE.

LIGHT NW SFC FLOW TODAY WILL BECOME CALM TONIGHT.  LIGHT TO MODERATE
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL DIMINISH TODAY AND BECOME LIGHT N TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: BEHAVIOR AND EVENTUAL BREAK UP OF MVFR CIGS MAY
VARY...AS MAY LOWEST VALUES INCLUDING BORDERLINE IFR IN THE
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING.  TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    H    H    M    H    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IN THE CHILLY AIR...LOCAL IFR VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVERS AND IN BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...TRM







000
FXUS61 KRLX 221055
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
655 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  IT
MOVES OFFSHORE MID WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EAST
COAST...ONLY TO REBUILD OVER THE AREA LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
645 AM UPDATE...
SNUCK IN SPRINKLES UP N AND DOWN THE MOUNTAINS OUTSIDE THE SCHC AREA
EARLIER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NUMEROUS OBSERVATIONS OF HYDROMETEORS IN
THE MOIST LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING.  OTHERWISE
FCST ON TRACK.

PREV DISCN...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING BENEATH
POST FRONTAL INVERSION IN WRAP AROUND CYCLONIC FLOW.  MODELS DO NOT
PICK UP ON ANY OF THE RAIN DOTTING THE MIDDLE AND UPPER OHIO VALLEYS
EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT DO REFLECT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING.

FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC ALL THE WAY UP THROUGH THE MID
LEVELS TODAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W.  MOISTURE
BECOMES LIMITED TO A SHALLOW LAYER BENEATH THE INVERSION BEFORE
DRYING OUT ALTOGETHER BY THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING A CLEAR...CALM NT
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN VALLEY FOG...ALONG WITH PATCHY FROST IN THE
BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS ALTHOUGH NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY.

HIGHS ARE BELOW GUIDANCE IN AIR MASS OF CANADIAN ORIGIN BENEATH THE
CLOUDS AND FRONTAL INVERSION TODAY...AND LOWS BETWEEN THE HIGHER MET
AND LOWER MAV TONIGHT.  THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED BUT DID USE
THE MET TO LOWER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY A BIT TONIGHT WHILE MAKING
CERTAIN NOT TO RAISE LOWS ANYWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE...WITH A CLEAR SKY...COOL NIGHTS...AND WARM DAYS
EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. TEMPS WILL WARM NICELY ON
WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. A FEW
CLOUDS MAY SEEP IN ACROSS EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY...AS A LOW MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST...BUT AREA
SHOULD REMAIN DRY. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY AND
ALLOW A MODEST INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...UPPER RIDGING ALOFT WILL HOLD.
SO WHILE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN AS TIME GOES ON...THE
PROSPECTS OF ANY RAIN ARE VERY LOW AT BEST. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BANKING UP AGAINST EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL ONLY
BRING INCREASED CLOUDS BY THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...SUNSHINE WILL
DOMINATE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND
WITH HIGHS TO AROUND 80 BY THE WEEKEND AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S
IN THE LOW LANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CIGS IN STRATOCU WERE QUITE VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD
SETTLE INTO LOWER PORTION OF MVFR RANGE ON MIXING AFTER SUNRISE THIS
MORNING.  BRIEF MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR
DRIZZLE MAINLY IN THE NRN MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD END BY
MID MORNING /14Z OR SO/.

THESE CIGS WILL GRADUALLY CLIMB MIDDAY TODAY...BUT REMAIN IN MVFR
RANGE INTO THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE NRN WV
MOUNTAINS...BEFORE BREAKING UP.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WILL BRING CLEAR AND
CALM CONDITIONS...WITH DENSE VALLEY FOG LIKELY FORMING AFTER 06Z TUE.

LIGHT NW SFC FLOW TODAY WILL BECOME CALM TONIGHT.  LIGHT TO MODERATE
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL DIMINISH TODAY AND BECOME LIGHT N TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: BEHAVIOR AND EVENTUAL BREAK UP OF MVFR CIGS MAY
VARY...AS MAY LOWEST VALUES INCLUDING BORDERLINE IFR IN THE
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING.  TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    H    H    M    H    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IN THE CHILLY AIR...LOCAL IFR VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVERS AND IN BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...TRM






000
FXUS61 KRLX 220738
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
338 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  IT
MOVES OFFSHORE MID WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EAST
COAST...ONLY TO REBUILD OVER THE AREA LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING BENEATH
POST FRONTAL INVERSION IN WRAP AROUND CYCLONIC FLOW.  MODELS DO NOT
PICK UP ON ANY OF THE RAIN DOTTING THE MIDDLE AND UPPER OHIO VALLEYS
EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT DO REFLECT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING.

FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC ALL THE WAY UP THROUGH THE MID
LEVELS TODAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W.  MOISTURE
BECOMES LIMITED TO A SHALLOW LAYER BENEATH THE INVERSION BEFORE
DRYING OUT ALTOGETHER BY THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING A CLEAR...CALM NT
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN VALLEY FOG...ALONG WITH PATCHY FROST IN THE
BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS ALTHOUGH NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY.

HIGHS ARE BELOW GUIDANCE IN AIR MASS OF CANADIAN ORIGIN BENEATH THE
CLOUDS AND FRONTAL INVERSION TODAY...AND LOWS BETWEEN THE HIGHER MET
AND LOWER MAV TONIGHT.  THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED BUT DID USE
THE MET TO LOWER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY A BIT TONIGHT WHILE MAKING
CERTAIN NOT TO RAISE LOWS ANYWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE...WITH A CLEAR SKY...COOL NIGHTS...AND WARM DAYS
EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. TEMPS WILL WARM NICELY ON
WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. A FEW
CLOUDS MAY SEEP IN ACROSS EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY...AS A LOW MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST...BUT AREA
SHOULD REMAIN DRY. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY AND
ALLOW A MODEST INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...UPPER RIDGING ALOFT WILL HOLD.
SO WHILE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN AS TIME GOES ON...THE
PROSPECTS OF ANY RAIN ARE VERY LOW AT BEST. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BANKING UP AGAINST EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL ONLY
BRING INCREASED CLOUDS BY THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...SUNSHINE WILL
DOMINATE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND
WITH HIGHS TO AROUND 80 BY THE WEEKEND AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S
IN THE LOW LANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRIER AIR TAKING FIRM CONTROL IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT
ROLLED THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.  THIS AND LIGHT NW SFC FLOW WILL
PRECLUDE FOG FOR THE MOST PART OVERNIGHT...BUT  A STRATOCU DECK
FORMING AND SPREADING SEWD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT BENEATH FRONTAL
INVERSION WILL LOWER TO MVFR FIRST FEW HOURS OF FCST...ALREADY
HAVING DONE SO AT PKB.  CIGS COULD LOWER TO NEAR THE TOP END OF IFR
IN THE MOUNTAINS AROUND DAYBREAK MON.

CIGS WILL GRADUALLY CLIMB AFTER DAYBREAK MON...BUT REMAIN IN MVFR
RANGE INTO MON AFTERNOON...EVEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE NRN WV
MOUNTAINS...BEFORE BREAKING UP.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA MON NT WILL BRING CLEAR AND
CALM CONDITIONS...WITH MVFR FOG FORMING IN THE NRN WV MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS BY 06Z TUE.

LIGHT NW SFC FLOW THROUGH MON WILL BECOME CALM MON NT.  LIGHT TO
MODERATE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL DIMINISH MON AND BECOME LIGHT N MON NT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF ONSET AND BREAK UP OF MVFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT AND MON MAY VARY...AS MAY LOWEST VALUES INCLUDING
BORDERLINE IFR IN THE MOUNTAINS MON MORNING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              MON 09/22/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    L    M    M    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IN THE CHILLY AIR...LOCAL IFR VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVERS AND IN BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...TRM






000
FXUS61 KRLX 220738
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
338 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  IT
MOVES OFFSHORE MID WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EAST
COAST...ONLY TO REBUILD OVER THE AREA LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING BENEATH
POST FRONTAL INVERSION IN WRAP AROUND CYCLONIC FLOW.  MODELS DO NOT
PICK UP ON ANY OF THE RAIN DOTTING THE MIDDLE AND UPPER OHIO VALLEYS
EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT DO REFLECT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING.

FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC ALL THE WAY UP THROUGH THE MID
LEVELS TODAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W.  MOISTURE
BECOMES LIMITED TO A SHALLOW LAYER BENEATH THE INVERSION BEFORE
DRYING OUT ALTOGETHER BY THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING A CLEAR...CALM NT
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN VALLEY FOG...ALONG WITH PATCHY FROST IN THE
BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS ALTHOUGH NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY.

HIGHS ARE BELOW GUIDANCE IN AIR MASS OF CANADIAN ORIGIN BENEATH THE
CLOUDS AND FRONTAL INVERSION TODAY...AND LOWS BETWEEN THE HIGHER MET
AND LOWER MAV TONIGHT.  THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED BUT DID USE
THE MET TO LOWER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY A BIT TONIGHT WHILE MAKING
CERTAIN NOT TO RAISE LOWS ANYWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE...WITH A CLEAR SKY...COOL NIGHTS...AND WARM DAYS
EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. TEMPS WILL WARM NICELY ON
WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. A FEW
CLOUDS MAY SEEP IN ACROSS EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY...AS A LOW MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST...BUT AREA
SHOULD REMAIN DRY. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY AND
ALLOW A MODEST INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...UPPER RIDGING ALOFT WILL HOLD.
SO WHILE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN AS TIME GOES ON...THE
PROSPECTS OF ANY RAIN ARE VERY LOW AT BEST. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BANKING UP AGAINST EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL ONLY
BRING INCREASED CLOUDS BY THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...SUNSHINE WILL
DOMINATE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND
WITH HIGHS TO AROUND 80 BY THE WEEKEND AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S
IN THE LOW LANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRIER AIR TAKING FIRM CONTROL IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT
ROLLED THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.  THIS AND LIGHT NW SFC FLOW WILL
PRECLUDE FOG FOR THE MOST PART OVERNIGHT...BUT  A STRATOCU DECK
FORMING AND SPREADING SEWD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT BENEATH FRONTAL
INVERSION WILL LOWER TO MVFR FIRST FEW HOURS OF FCST...ALREADY
HAVING DONE SO AT PKB.  CIGS COULD LOWER TO NEAR THE TOP END OF IFR
IN THE MOUNTAINS AROUND DAYBREAK MON.

CIGS WILL GRADUALLY CLIMB AFTER DAYBREAK MON...BUT REMAIN IN MVFR
RANGE INTO MON AFTERNOON...EVEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE NRN WV
MOUNTAINS...BEFORE BREAKING UP.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA MON NT WILL BRING CLEAR AND
CALM CONDITIONS...WITH MVFR FOG FORMING IN THE NRN WV MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS BY 06Z TUE.

LIGHT NW SFC FLOW THROUGH MON WILL BECOME CALM MON NT.  LIGHT TO
MODERATE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL DIMINISH MON AND BECOME LIGHT N MON NT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF ONSET AND BREAK UP OF MVFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT AND MON MAY VARY...AS MAY LOWEST VALUES INCLUDING
BORDERLINE IFR IN THE MOUNTAINS MON MORNING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              MON 09/22/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    L    M    M    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IN THE CHILLY AIR...LOCAL IFR VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVERS AND IN BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...TRM







000
FXUS61 KRLX 220600
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
200 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT BUILDS IN MONDAY
NIGHT...AND DOMINATES OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
200 AM UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.

PREV DISCN...
NO BIG CHANGES IN LATE EVENING UPDATE FROM THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE.

AT 02Z...OUR CWA IN POST FRONTAL DRY SLOT.

00Z MONDAY 850 MB TEMP AT ILN AND PBZ DOWN 5 TO 6 DEGS C FROM 12Z
SUNDAY. WE STILL EXPECT THAT STRONG COOL AIR ADVECTION AT 925 TO 850
MB TO FORM LOWERING STRATOCUMULUS FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT. THINKING
MAXIMUM MOISTURE/CLOUDS IN THE COOL POOL...08Z TO 16Z. LEFT SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. CLOUDS THIN AND LIFT SLIGHTLY AFTER THAT
MAXIMUM TIME PERIOD.

DUE TO THE EARLY EVENING RAIN IN THE DEEP SOUTHERN WV VALLEYS...HAVE
CONTINUED SOME FOG THERE THROUGH ABOUT 06Z..BEFORE THE DRIER AIR
INFILTRATES ALL THOSE NOOKS AND CRANNIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A VERY TRANQUIL AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS INDICATED BY ALL THE
MODELS...WHICH IS EXPECTED AT THIS CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRIEST TIME OF
THE YEAR. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EACH DAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AT NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR
WILL LEAD TO CHILLY TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT...AND SOME NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN VALLEY FROST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A WIDE RANGE IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S FOR THE LOW
LANDS. LEANING ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE BY DAY AND LOWER SIDE
BY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY AND
ALLOW A MODEST INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...UPPER RIDGING ALOFT WILL HOLD.
SO WHILE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN AS TIME GOES ON...THE
PROSPECTS OF ANY RAIN ARE VERY LOW AT BEST. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BANKING UP AGAINST EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL ONLY
BRING INCREASED CLOUDS BY THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...SUNSHINE WILL
DOMINATE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND
WITH HIGHS TO AROUND 80 BY THE WEEKEND AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S
IN THE LOW LANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRIER AIR TAKING FIRM CONTROL IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT
ROLLED THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.  THIS AND LIGHT NW SFC FLOW WILL
PRECLUDE FOG FOR THE MOST PART OVERNIGHT...BUT  A STRATOCU DECK
FORMING AND SPREADING SEWD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT BENEATH FRONTAL
INVERSION WILL LOWER TO MVFR FIRST FEW HOURS OF FCST...ALREADY
HAVING DONE SO AT PKB.  CIGS COULD LOWER TO NEAR THE TOP END OF IFR
IN THE MOUNTAINS AROUND DAYBREAK MON.

CIGS WILL GRADUALLY CLIMB AFTER DAYBREAK MON...BUT REMAIN IN MVFR
RANGE INTO MON AFTERNOON...EVEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE NRN WV
MOUNTAINS...BEFORE BREAKING UP.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA MON NT WILL BRING CLEAR AND
CALM CONDITIONS...WITH MVFR FOG FORMING IN THE NRN WV MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS BY 06Z TUE.

LIGHT NW SFC FLOW THROUGH MON WILL BECOME CALM MON NT.  LIGHT TO
MODERATE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL DIMINISH MON AND BECOME LIGHT N MON NT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF ONSET AND BREAK UP OF MVFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT AND MON MAY VARY...AS MAY LOWEST VALUES INCLUDING
BORDERLINE IFR IN THE MOUNTAINS MON MORNING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              MON 09/22/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    L    M    M    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IN THE CHILLY AIR...LOCAL IFR VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVERS AND IN BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...KTB/TRM
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...TRM







000
FXUS61 KRLX 220600
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
200 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT BUILDS IN MONDAY
NIGHT...AND DOMINATES OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
200 AM UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.

PREV DISCN...
NO BIG CHANGES IN LATE EVENING UPDATE FROM THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE.

AT 02Z...OUR CWA IN POST FRONTAL DRY SLOT.

00Z MONDAY 850 MB TEMP AT ILN AND PBZ DOWN 5 TO 6 DEGS C FROM 12Z
SUNDAY. WE STILL EXPECT THAT STRONG COOL AIR ADVECTION AT 925 TO 850
MB TO FORM LOWERING STRATOCUMULUS FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT. THINKING
MAXIMUM MOISTURE/CLOUDS IN THE COOL POOL...08Z TO 16Z. LEFT SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. CLOUDS THIN AND LIFT SLIGHTLY AFTER THAT
MAXIMUM TIME PERIOD.

DUE TO THE EARLY EVENING RAIN IN THE DEEP SOUTHERN WV VALLEYS...HAVE
CONTINUED SOME FOG THERE THROUGH ABOUT 06Z..BEFORE THE DRIER AIR
INFILTRATES ALL THOSE NOOKS AND CRANNIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A VERY TRANQUIL AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS INDICATED BY ALL THE
MODELS...WHICH IS EXPECTED AT THIS CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRIEST TIME OF
THE YEAR. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EACH DAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AT NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR
WILL LEAD TO CHILLY TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT...AND SOME NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN VALLEY FROST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A WIDE RANGE IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S FOR THE LOW
LANDS. LEANING ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE BY DAY AND LOWER SIDE
BY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY AND
ALLOW A MODEST INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...UPPER RIDGING ALOFT WILL HOLD.
SO WHILE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN AS TIME GOES ON...THE
PROSPECTS OF ANY RAIN ARE VERY LOW AT BEST. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BANKING UP AGAINST EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL ONLY
BRING INCREASED CLOUDS BY THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...SUNSHINE WILL
DOMINATE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND
WITH HIGHS TO AROUND 80 BY THE WEEKEND AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S
IN THE LOW LANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRIER AIR TAKING FIRM CONTROL IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT
ROLLED THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.  THIS AND LIGHT NW SFC FLOW WILL
PRECLUDE FOG FOR THE MOST PART OVERNIGHT...BUT  A STRATOCU DECK
FORMING AND SPREADING SEWD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT BENEATH FRONTAL
INVERSION WILL LOWER TO MVFR FIRST FEW HOURS OF FCST...ALREADY
HAVING DONE SO AT PKB.  CIGS COULD LOWER TO NEAR THE TOP END OF IFR
IN THE MOUNTAINS AROUND DAYBREAK MON.

CIGS WILL GRADUALLY CLIMB AFTER DAYBREAK MON...BUT REMAIN IN MVFR
RANGE INTO MON AFTERNOON...EVEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE NRN WV
MOUNTAINS...BEFORE BREAKING UP.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA MON NT WILL BRING CLEAR AND
CALM CONDITIONS...WITH MVFR FOG FORMING IN THE NRN WV MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS BY 06Z TUE.

LIGHT NW SFC FLOW THROUGH MON WILL BECOME CALM MON NT.  LIGHT TO
MODERATE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL DIMINISH MON AND BECOME LIGHT N MON NT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF ONSET AND BREAK UP OF MVFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT AND MON MAY VARY...AS MAY LOWEST VALUES INCLUDING
BORDERLINE IFR IN THE MOUNTAINS MON MORNING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              MON 09/22/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    L    M    M    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IN THE CHILLY AIR...LOCAL IFR VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVERS AND IN BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...KTB/TRM
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...TRM






000
FXUS61 KRLX 220236
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1028 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT BUILDS IN MONDAY
NIGHT...AND DOMINATES OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WITH WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO BIG CHANGES IN LATE EVENING UPDATE FROM THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE.

AT 02Z...OUR CWA IN POST FRONTAL DRY SLOT.

00Z MONDAY 850 MB TEMP AT ILN AND PBZ DOWN 5 TO 6 DEGS C FROM 12Z
SUNDAY. WE STILL EXPECT THAT STRONG COOL AIR ADVECTION AT 925 TO 850
MB TO FORM LOWERING STRATOCUMULUS FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT. THINKING
MAXIMUM MOISTURE/CLOUDS IN THE COOL POOL...08Z TO 16Z. LEFT SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. CLOUDS THIN AND LIFT SLIGHTLY AFTER THAT
MAXIMUM TIME PERIOD.

DUE TO THE EARLY EVENING RAIN IN THE DEEP SOUTHERN WV VALLEYS...HAVE
CONTINUED SOME FOG THERE THROUGH ABOUT 06Z..BEFORE THE DRIER AIR
INFILTRATES ALL THOSE NOOKS AND CRANNIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A VERY TRANQUIL AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS INDICATED BY ALL THE
MODELS...WHICH IS EXPECTED AT THIS CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRIEST TIME OF
THE YEAR. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EACH DAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AT NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR
WILL LEAD TO CHILLY TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT...AND SOME NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN VALLEY FROST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A WIDE RANGE IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S FOR THE LOW
LANDS. LEANING ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE BY DAY AND LOWER SIDE
BY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY AND
ALLOW A MODEST INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...UPPER RIDGING ALOFT WILL HOLD.
SO WHILE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN AS TIME GOES ON...THE
PROSPECTS OF ANY RAIN ARE VERY LOW AT BEST. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BANKING UP AGAINST EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL ONLY
BRING INCREASED CLOUDS BY THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...SUNSHINE WILL
DOMINATE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND
WITH HIGHS TO AROUND 80 BY THE WEEKEND AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S
IN THE LOW LANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS MOUNTAIN COUNTIES AT SUNSET WITH DEW POINT
GRADIENT NEAR CKB TO CRW.

HAVE SOME FOG POSSIBLE IN THE DEEP SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA VALLEYS
01Z THRU 06Z DUE TO RECENT RAINS.  DEW POINTS IN THOSE VALLEYS MAY
BE SLOW TO DROP OVERNIGHT...BUT DID FIGURE THE GRADIENT WIND AND
DRIER AIR ALOFT...WILL EVENTUALLY WIN OUT...EVEN IN THOSE DEEPER
VALLEYS.

DRY SLOP IN WAKE OF FRONT WITH MOSTLY SCATTERED CLOUDS 4 TO 6 THSD
FT. AS COOLER AIR ADVECTS IN...WAS SLOWER IN DROPPING CEILINGS IN
THE COOL POOL.  THINK THE MAXIMUM COVERAGE OF CEILINGS NEAR 2 TO 3
THSD FT WITH 1 TO 2 THSD FT OVER WV MOUNTAINS 08Z TO 15Z MONDAY.
FEW SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE CKB TO EKN VCNTY DURING THAT
TIME.

18Z MONDAY TO 00Z TUESDAY...CEILINGS LIFTING AND SCATTERED OUT AT 2
TO 4 THSD FT.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CEILINGS DO NOT LOWER AS QUICKLY 06Z TO 12Z
MONDAY.  DEW POINT AT CRW DOES NOT LOWER AS QUICKLY AS EXPECTED WITH
SOME FOG FORMING BY 06Z.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  MON 09/22/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    M    H    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IN THE CHILLY AIR...LOCAL IFR VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVERS AND IN BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...KTB










000
FXUS61 KRLX 220008
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
808 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT BUILDS IN MONDAY
NIGHT...AND DOMINATES OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WITH WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS 24 HOURS AHEAD OF THE CALENDAR...WITH THE AUTUMNAL
EQUINOX MONDAY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS MOUNTAIN COUNTIES AT SUNSET SUNDAY...WITH
DEW POINT GRADIENT NEAR CKB TO CRW.  CRW DEW POINT FINALLY DROPPING
AT 00Z.

IN WAKE OF FRONT...DRY SLOT. WILL BE SLOWER INCREASING CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT IN THE COOL AIR ADVECTION AT 925 TO 850 MB...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THINKING MAXIMUM MOISTURE IN THE COOL
POOL...08Z TO 16Z.  LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER IN THE
NORTHEAST.

EVENTUALLY THE DRY AIR SHOULD WIN OUT.  HOWEVER...DUE TO THE EARLY
EVENING RAIN IN THE DEEP SOUTHERN WV VALLEYS...HAVE SOME FOG THERE
FOR A TIME 00Z TO 06Z...BEFORE THE DRIER AIR INFILTRATES EVEN THOSE
DEEP VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A VERY TRANQUIL AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS INDICATED BY ALL THE
MODELS...WHICH IS EXPECTED AT THIS CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRIEST TIME OF
THE YEAR. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EACH DAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AT NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR
WILL LEAD TO CHILLY TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT...AND SOME NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN VALLEY FROST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A WIDE RANGE IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S FOR THE LOW
LANDS. LEANING ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE BY DAY AND LOWER SIDE
BY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY AND
ALLOW A MODEST INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...UPPER RIDGING ALOFT WILL HOLD.
SO WHILE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN AS TIME GOES ON...THE
PROSPECTS OF ANY RAIN ARE VERY LOW AT BEST. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BANKING UP AGAINST EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL ONLY
BRING INCREASED CLOUDS BY THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...SUNSHINE WILL
DOMINATE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND
WITH HIGHS TO AROUND 80 BY THE WEEKEND AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S
IN THE LOW LANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS MOUNTAIN COUNTIES AT SUNSET WITH DEW POINT
GRADIENT NEAR CKB TO CRW.

HAVE SOME FOG POSSIBLE IN THE DEEP SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA VALLEYS
01Z THRU 06Z DUE TO RECENT RAINS.  DEW POINTS IN THOSE VALLEYS MAY
BE SLOW TO DROP OVERNIGHT...BUT DID FIGURE THE GRADIENT WIND AND
DRIER AIR ALOFT...WILL EVENTUALLY WIN OUT...EVEN IN THOSE DEEPER
VALLEYS.

DRY SLOP IN WAKE OF FRONT WITH MOSTLY SCATTERED CLOUDS 4 TO 6 THSD
FT. AS COOLER AIR ADVECTS IN...WAS SLOWER IN DROPPING CEILINGS IN
THE COOL POOL.  THINK THE MAXIMUM COVERAGE OF CEILINGS NEAR 2 TO 3
THSD FT WITH 1 TO 2 THSD FT OVER WV MOUNTAINS 08Z TO 15Z MONDAY.
FEW SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE CKB TO EKN VCNTY DURING THAT
TIME.

18Z MONDAY TO 00Z TUESDAY...CEILINGS LIFTING AND SCATTERED OUT AT 2
TO 4 THSD FT.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CEILINGS DO NOT LOWER AS QUICKLY 06Z TO 12Z
MONDAY.  DEW POINT AT CRW DOES NOT LOWER AS QUICKLY AS EXPECTED WITH
SOME FOG FORMING BY 06Z.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            MON 09/22/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IN THE CHILLY AIR...LOCAL IFR VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVERS AND IN BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...KTB










000
FXUS61 KRLX 220008
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
808 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT BUILDS IN MONDAY
NIGHT...AND DOMINATES OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WITH WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS 24 HOURS AHEAD OF THE CALENDAR...WITH THE AUTUMNAL
EQUINOX MONDAY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS MOUNTAIN COUNTIES AT SUNSET SUNDAY...WITH
DEW POINT GRADIENT NEAR CKB TO CRW.  CRW DEW POINT FINALLY DROPPING
AT 00Z.

IN WAKE OF FRONT...DRY SLOT. WILL BE SLOWER INCREASING CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT IN THE COOL AIR ADVECTION AT 925 TO 850 MB...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THINKING MAXIMUM MOISTURE IN THE COOL
POOL...08Z TO 16Z.  LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER IN THE
NORTHEAST.

EVENTUALLY THE DRY AIR SHOULD WIN OUT.  HOWEVER...DUE TO THE EARLY
EVENING RAIN IN THE DEEP SOUTHERN WV VALLEYS...HAVE SOME FOG THERE
FOR A TIME 00Z TO 06Z...BEFORE THE DRIER AIR INFILTRATES EVEN THOSE
DEEP VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A VERY TRANQUIL AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS INDICATED BY ALL THE
MODELS...WHICH IS EXPECTED AT THIS CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRIEST TIME OF
THE YEAR. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EACH DAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AT NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR
WILL LEAD TO CHILLY TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT...AND SOME NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN VALLEY FROST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A WIDE RANGE IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S FOR THE LOW
LANDS. LEANING ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE BY DAY AND LOWER SIDE
BY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY AND
ALLOW A MODEST INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...UPPER RIDGING ALOFT WILL HOLD.
SO WHILE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN AS TIME GOES ON...THE
PROSPECTS OF ANY RAIN ARE VERY LOW AT BEST. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BANKING UP AGAINST EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL ONLY
BRING INCREASED CLOUDS BY THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...SUNSHINE WILL
DOMINATE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND
WITH HIGHS TO AROUND 80 BY THE WEEKEND AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S
IN THE LOW LANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS MOUNTAIN COUNTIES AT SUNSET WITH DEW POINT
GRADIENT NEAR CKB TO CRW.

HAVE SOME FOG POSSIBLE IN THE DEEP SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA VALLEYS
01Z THRU 06Z DUE TO RECENT RAINS.  DEW POINTS IN THOSE VALLEYS MAY
BE SLOW TO DROP OVERNIGHT...BUT DID FIGURE THE GRADIENT WIND AND
DRIER AIR ALOFT...WILL EVENTUALLY WIN OUT...EVEN IN THOSE DEEPER
VALLEYS.

DRY SLOP IN WAKE OF FRONT WITH MOSTLY SCATTERED CLOUDS 4 TO 6 THSD
FT. AS COOLER AIR ADVECTS IN...WAS SLOWER IN DROPPING CEILINGS IN
THE COOL POOL.  THINK THE MAXIMUM COVERAGE OF CEILINGS NEAR 2 TO 3
THSD FT WITH 1 TO 2 THSD FT OVER WV MOUNTAINS 08Z TO 15Z MONDAY.
FEW SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE CKB TO EKN VCNTY DURING THAT
TIME.

18Z MONDAY TO 00Z TUESDAY...CEILINGS LIFTING AND SCATTERED OUT AT 2
TO 4 THSD FT.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CEILINGS DO NOT LOWER AS QUICKLY 06Z TO 12Z
MONDAY.  DEW POINT AT CRW DOES NOT LOWER AS QUICKLY AS EXPECTED WITH
SOME FOG FORMING BY 06Z.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            MON 09/22/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IN THE CHILLY AIR...LOCAL IFR VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVERS AND IN BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...KTB











000
FXUS61 KRLX 211836
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
236 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT BUILDS IN MONDAY
NIGHT...AND DOMINATES OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WITH WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT IS WELL DEFINED ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY/SURFACE PLOTS AS
IT CUTS THROUGH SOUTHERN OHIO TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER. DEWPOINT DROPS
BEHIND THE FRONT ARE SWIFT...ALONG WITH WINDS GUSTING TO THE 30KT
RANGE AT TIMES BACK IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN OHIO. WATCHING THE
DEWPOINT AT KILN DROP 13 DEGREES FROM 56 TO 43 IN THE LAST HOUR.
COLD FRONTS OFTEN TIMES LIKE TO HANG UP IN THE CWA...PARTICULARLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS...BUT UPPER TROUGH AXIS LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH FOR A
CLEAN SWEEP.

CONVECTION HAS BEGUN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT COVERAGE IS LESS THAN
OPTIMUM LIKELY DUE TO THE STRATOCUMULUS THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE SINCE
THE MID MORNING HOURS. DO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN THE
ACTIVITY...HOWEVER THE THINKING IS THAT DIURNAL HEATING WILL PLAY AS
MUCH OF A FACTOR AS THE DYNAMICS IN THE AMOUNT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TODAY. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE...BUT WIND GUSTS CERTAINLY ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE COLD ADVECTION COUPLED WITH SOME LOW LEVEL EVAPORATION.

WILL GET A BRIEF CLEAR AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT WILL QUICKLY BE
FILLED IN BY MORE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH THE AXIS OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. WITH THAT SAID...DESPITE THE TSRA IN THE FORECAST...THIS
SYSTEM RESEMBLES MORE OF A COLD SEASON WAVE CYCLONE AS WE TRANSITION
TOWARDS FALL.

WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S AS THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A VERY TRANQUIL AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS INDICATED BY ALL THE
MODELS...WHICH IS EXPECTED AT THIS CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRIEST TIME OF
THE YEAR. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EACH DAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AT NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR
WILL LEAD TO CHILLY TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT...AND SOME NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN VALLEY FROST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A WIDE RANGE IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S FOR THE LOW
LANDS. LEANING ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE BY DAY AND LOWER SIDE
BY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY AND
ALLOW A MODEST INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...UPPER RIDGING ALOFT WILL HOLD.
SO WHILE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN AS TIME GOES ON...THE
PROSPECTS OF ANY RAIN ARE VERY LOW AT BEST. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BANKING UP AGAINST EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL ONLY
BRING INCREASED CLOUDS BY THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...SUNSHINE WILL
DOMINATE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND
WITH HIGHS TO AROUND 80 BY THE WEEKEND AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S
IN THE LOW LANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LACKING SOME CONFIDENCE IN THE AVIATION FORECAST TODAY.

COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BE A QUICK MOVER THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...DRIVEN BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. A LINE OF
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY FORMING WITH THIS COLD FRONT WHICH
DOMINATES THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE FORECAST.

THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF SOME GUSTY WINDS THAT ARE
ALREADY INCREASING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. ALSO INCLUDE BKW/MOUNTAINS
IN THE BETTER TSRA THREAT. HAVE TEMPO GROUPS FOR SHRA ONLY AT HTS
AND CRW.

THE FRONT ITSELF IS LOOKING A LITTLE RAGGED...SO THE COVERAGE OF
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS IS QUESTIONABLE AT THE TIME OF THIS
FORECAST. THIS IS THE REASON FOR THE TEMPOS INSTEAD OF THE
PREVAILING CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS.

WIND SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH WIND SPEEDS
COMING DOWN BELOW 10KTS TONIGHT.

EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO PERSIST BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE ADVECTION
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. OPTED
AGAINST FOG GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS STAYING
AROUND 5KTS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR STRATUS POSSIBLE MON MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. IFR
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE TUE MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVERS AND IN
BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS61 KRLX 211808
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
154 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY
NIGHT...AND DOMINATES OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
WITH WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1000 AM UPDATE...
LINE HAS DEVELOPED AND IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CWA...BUT
WITH LITTLE FANFARE. UPDATED THE POPS TO REFLECT THIS AND
CURRENTLY AWAITING THE COLD FRONT AND THE CONVECTION FIRE WITH THE
MAIN BOUNDARY.

PREV DISC...
CONVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING IN AND IL EARLY THIS
MORNING STRUGGLING TO PUSH E AS INITIAL S/W TROUGH LIFTS OUT.  AS A
RESULT...CONVECTION HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO AN AXIS JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  AS A RESULT...SHOWERS DO NOT REACH THE UPSTREAM
/W/ EDGE OF THE FCST AREA UNTIL CLOSE TO DAYBREAK.

MODELS ESPECIALLY NEAR TERM MODELS INSIST THE PRECIPITATION MOVES
QUICKLY E ACROSS FCST AREA TODAY IN RESPONSE TO SECOND S/W TROUGH
WHICH ALSO LIFTS OUT THIS MORNING...SO THIS PRECIPITATION MAY AGAIN
STRUGGLE TO HOLD TOGETHER.  POPS EVENTUALLY COME CLOSER IN LINE WITH
PREV FCST AS FRONT AND WHATEVER DIURNAL HEATING WE CAN ACHIEVE
CONVERGE ON THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON BENEATH DIFFLUENT UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND FALLING HEIGHTS.  SO NAM DYNAMICS SUGGEST AT LEAST
TWO BANDS OF CONVECTION SWEEPING ACROSS WHILE WRFARW FOR EXAMPLE
SUGGESTS SEVERAL.

SEP HEATING AND CLOUD COVER EARLY ON WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HELPS PUSH MID LEVEL /H85-H7/ LAPSE RATES TO
6-7C/KM.  FLOW IS ALSO MARGINAL WITH 30 KTS AT H85 AND 40 KTS MID
LEVEL MEAN AND 60 KTS AT H5.  WILL BE DIFFICULT BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE
TO CONVERT THIS TO DAMAGING WIND AT THE SFC BUT ISOLATED STRONGER
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.  THINK ANY DAMAGE IS MINOR AND ISOLATED ENOUGH
FOR NO MENTION IN HWO AND NEAR TERM FCST.

H7-H5 LAPSE RATES ARE LOWER OWING TO A STABLE LEVEL THERE SO HAIL IS
NOT LIKELY DESPITE FREEZING LEVELS AS LOW AS 10 KFT AGL AND THE 60
KTS AT H5 WILL BE HARD TO TAP.  SPC KEEPS PROBABILITIES AT 5 PERCENT
ON BOTH IN A SEE TEXT.

BRIEF CLEARING TAKES PLACE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...BUT CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT IN THE CYCLONIC LOW
LEVEL FLOW BENEATH THE POST FRONTAL INVERSION.  CLOUD AND FLOW
SHOULD PRECLUDE DENSE FOG TONIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME POST RAIN MIST AND
LIMITED VALLEY FOG ARE LIKELY.

MET AND MAV WERE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREV FCST ON TEMPERATURES BUT
MADE JUST S SLIGHT MOVE IN THAT DIRECTION.  THE TIMING ON HIGHS WILL
VARY BASED ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...BASICALLY EARLY E AND LATE
W BUT DETAIL DIFFICULT TO CODE.  MOVED TOWARD HIGHER GUIDANCE
TONIGHT WITH THE TYPICAL SLOWER PUSH OF COOLER AIR TOWARD THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A VERY TRANQUIL AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS INDICATED BY ALL THE
MODELS...WHICH IS EXPECTED AT THIS CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRIEST TIME OF
THE YEAR. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EACH DAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AT NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR
WILL LEAD TO CHILLY TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT...AND SOME NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN VALLEY FROST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A WIDE RANGE IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S FOR THE LOW
LANDS. LEANING ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE BY DAY AND LOWER SIDE
BY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY AND
ALLOW A MODEST INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...UPPER RIDGING ALOFT WILL HOLD.
SO WHILE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN AS TIME GOES ON...THE
PROSPECTS OF ANY RAIN ARE VERY LOW AT BEST. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BANKING UP AGAINST EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL ONLY
BRING INCREASED CLOUDS BY THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...SUNSHINE WILL
DOMINATE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND
WITH HIGHS TO AROUND 80 BY THE WEEKEND AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S
IN THE LOW LANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LACKING SOME CONFIDENCE IN THE AVIATION FORECAST TODAY.

COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BE A QUICK MOVER THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...DRIVEN BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. A LINE OF
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY FORMING WITH THIS COLD FRONT WHICH
DOMINATES THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE FORECAST.

THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF SOME GUSTY WINDS THAT ARE
ALREADY INCREASING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. ALSO INCLUDE BKW/MOUNTAINS
IN THE BETTER TSRA THREAT. HAVE TEMPO GROUPS FOR SHRA ONLY AT HTS
AND CRW.

THE FRONT ITSELF IS LOOKING A LITTLE RAGGED...SO THE COVERAGE OF
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS IS QUESTIONABLE AT THE TIME OF THIS
FORECAST. THIS IS THE REASON FOR THE TEMPOS INSTEAD OF THE
PREVAILING CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS.

WIND SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH WIND SPEEDS
COMING DOWN BELOW 10KTS TONIGHT.

EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO PERSIST BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE ADVECTION
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. OPTED
AGAINST FOG GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS STAYING
AROUND 5KTS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR STRATUS POSSIBLE MON MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. IFR
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE TUE MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVERS AND IN
BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...26











000
FXUS61 KRLX 211808
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
154 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY
NIGHT...AND DOMINATES OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
WITH WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1000 AM UPDATE...
LINE HAS DEVELOPED AND IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CWA...BUT
WITH LITTLE FANFARE. UPDATED THE POPS TO REFLECT THIS AND
CURRENTLY AWAITING THE COLD FRONT AND THE CONVECTION FIRE WITH THE
MAIN BOUNDARY.

PREV DISC...
CONVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING IN AND IL EARLY THIS
MORNING STRUGGLING TO PUSH E AS INITIAL S/W TROUGH LIFTS OUT.  AS A
RESULT...CONVECTION HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO AN AXIS JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  AS A RESULT...SHOWERS DO NOT REACH THE UPSTREAM
/W/ EDGE OF THE FCST AREA UNTIL CLOSE TO DAYBREAK.

MODELS ESPECIALLY NEAR TERM MODELS INSIST THE PRECIPITATION MOVES
QUICKLY E ACROSS FCST AREA TODAY IN RESPONSE TO SECOND S/W TROUGH
WHICH ALSO LIFTS OUT THIS MORNING...SO THIS PRECIPITATION MAY AGAIN
STRUGGLE TO HOLD TOGETHER.  POPS EVENTUALLY COME CLOSER IN LINE WITH
PREV FCST AS FRONT AND WHATEVER DIURNAL HEATING WE CAN ACHIEVE
CONVERGE ON THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON BENEATH DIFFLUENT UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND FALLING HEIGHTS.  SO NAM DYNAMICS SUGGEST AT LEAST
TWO BANDS OF CONVECTION SWEEPING ACROSS WHILE WRFARW FOR EXAMPLE
SUGGESTS SEVERAL.

SEP HEATING AND CLOUD COVER EARLY ON WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HELPS PUSH MID LEVEL /H85-H7/ LAPSE RATES TO
6-7C/KM.  FLOW IS ALSO MARGINAL WITH 30 KTS AT H85 AND 40 KTS MID
LEVEL MEAN AND 60 KTS AT H5.  WILL BE DIFFICULT BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE
TO CONVERT THIS TO DAMAGING WIND AT THE SFC BUT ISOLATED STRONGER
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.  THINK ANY DAMAGE IS MINOR AND ISOLATED ENOUGH
FOR NO MENTION IN HWO AND NEAR TERM FCST.

H7-H5 LAPSE RATES ARE LOWER OWING TO A STABLE LEVEL THERE SO HAIL IS
NOT LIKELY DESPITE FREEZING LEVELS AS LOW AS 10 KFT AGL AND THE 60
KTS AT H5 WILL BE HARD TO TAP.  SPC KEEPS PROBABILITIES AT 5 PERCENT
ON BOTH IN A SEE TEXT.

BRIEF CLEARING TAKES PLACE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...BUT CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT IN THE CYCLONIC LOW
LEVEL FLOW BENEATH THE POST FRONTAL INVERSION.  CLOUD AND FLOW
SHOULD PRECLUDE DENSE FOG TONIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME POST RAIN MIST AND
LIMITED VALLEY FOG ARE LIKELY.

MET AND MAV WERE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREV FCST ON TEMPERATURES BUT
MADE JUST S SLIGHT MOVE IN THAT DIRECTION.  THE TIMING ON HIGHS WILL
VARY BASED ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...BASICALLY EARLY E AND LATE
W BUT DETAIL DIFFICULT TO CODE.  MOVED TOWARD HIGHER GUIDANCE
TONIGHT WITH THE TYPICAL SLOWER PUSH OF COOLER AIR TOWARD THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A VERY TRANQUIL AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS INDICATED BY ALL THE
MODELS...WHICH IS EXPECTED AT THIS CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRIEST TIME OF
THE YEAR. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EACH DAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AT NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR
WILL LEAD TO CHILLY TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT...AND SOME NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN VALLEY FROST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A WIDE RANGE IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S FOR THE LOW
LANDS. LEANING ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE BY DAY AND LOWER SIDE
BY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY AND
ALLOW A MODEST INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...UPPER RIDGING ALOFT WILL HOLD.
SO WHILE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN AS TIME GOES ON...THE
PROSPECTS OF ANY RAIN ARE VERY LOW AT BEST. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BANKING UP AGAINST EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL ONLY
BRING INCREASED CLOUDS BY THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...SUNSHINE WILL
DOMINATE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND
WITH HIGHS TO AROUND 80 BY THE WEEKEND AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S
IN THE LOW LANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LACKING SOME CONFIDENCE IN THE AVIATION FORECAST TODAY.

COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BE A QUICK MOVER THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...DRIVEN BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. A LINE OF
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY FORMING WITH THIS COLD FRONT WHICH
DOMINATES THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE FORECAST.

THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF SOME GUSTY WINDS THAT ARE
ALREADY INCREASING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. ALSO INCLUDE BKW/MOUNTAINS
IN THE BETTER TSRA THREAT. HAVE TEMPO GROUPS FOR SHRA ONLY AT HTS
AND CRW.

THE FRONT ITSELF IS LOOKING A LITTLE RAGGED...SO THE COVERAGE OF
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS IS QUESTIONABLE AT THE TIME OF THIS
FORECAST. THIS IS THE REASON FOR THE TEMPOS INSTEAD OF THE
PREVAILING CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS.

WIND SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH WIND SPEEDS
COMING DOWN BELOW 10KTS TONIGHT.

EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO PERSIST BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE ADVECTION
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. OPTED
AGAINST FOG GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS STAYING
AROUND 5KTS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR STRATUS POSSIBLE MON MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. IFR
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE TUE MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVERS AND IN
BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...26










000
FXUS61 KRLX 211754
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
154 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS AFTERNOON.  AUTUMN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
MONDAY NIGHT...AND THEN DOMINATES THE WEATHER OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MUCH...IF NOT ALL...OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1000 AM UPDATE...
LINE HAS DEVELOPED AND IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CWA...BUT
WITH LITTLE FANFARE. UPDATED THE POPS TO REFLECT THIS AND
CURRENTLY AWAITING THE COLD FRONT AND THE CONVECTION FIRE WITH THE
MAIN BOUNDARY.

PREV DISC...
CONVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING IN AND IL EARLY THIS
MORNING STRUGGLING TO PUSH E AS INITIAL S/W TROUGH LIFTS OUT.  AS A
RESULT...CONVECTION HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO AN AXIS JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  AS A RESULT...SHOWERS DO NOT REACH THE UPSTREAM
/W/ EDGE OF THE FCST AREA UNTIL CLOSE TO DAYBREAK.

MODELS ESPECIALLY NEAR TERM MODELS INSIST THE PRECIPITATION MOVES
QUICKLY E ACROSS FCST AREA TODAY IN RESPONSE TO SECOND S/W TROUGH
WHICH ALSO LIFTS OUT THIS MORNING...SO THIS PRECIPITATION MAY AGAIN
STRUGGLE TO HOLD TOGETHER.  POPS EVENTUALLY COME CLOSER IN LINE WITH
PREV FCST AS FRONT AND WHATEVER DIURNAL HEATING WE CAN ACHIEVE
CONVERGE ON THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON BENEATH DIFFLUENT UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND FALLING HEIGHTS.  SO NAM DYNAMICS SUGGEST AT LEAST
TWO BANDS OF CONVECTION SWEEPING ACROSS WHILE WRFARW FOR EXAMPLE
SUGGESTS SEVERAL.

SEP HEATING AND CLOUD COVER EARLY ON WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HELPS PUSH MID LEVEL /H85-H7/ LAPSE RATES TO
6-7C/KM.  FLOW IS ALSO MARGINAL WITH 30 KTS AT H85 AND 40 KTS MID
LEVEL MEAN AND 60 KTS AT H5.  WILL BE DIFFICULT BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE
TO CONVERT THIS TO DAMAGING WIND AT THE SFC BUT ISOLATED STRONGER
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.  THINK ANY DAMAGE IS MINOR AND ISOLATED ENOUGH
FOR NO MENTION IN HWO AND NEAR TERM FCST.

H7-H5 LAPSE RATES ARE LOWER OWING TO A STABLE LEVEL THERE SO HAIL IS
NOT LIKELY DESPITE FREEZING LEVELS AS LOW AS 10 KFT AGL AND THE 60
KTS AT H5 WILL BE HARD TO TAP.  SPC KEEPS PROBABILITIES AT 5 PERCENT
ON BOTH IN A SEE TEXT.

BRIEF CLEARING TAKES PLACE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...BUT CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT IN THE CYCLONIC LOW
LEVEL FLOW BENEATH THE POST FRONTAL INVERSION.  CLOUD AND FLOW
SHOULD PRECLUDE DENSE FOG TONIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME POST RAIN MIST AND
LIMITED VALLEY FOG ARE LIKELY.

MET AND MAV WERE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREV FCST ON TEMPERATURES BUT
MADE JUST S SLIGHT MOVE IN THAT DIRECTION.  THE TIMING ON HIGHS WILL
VARY BASED ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...BASICALLY EARLY E AND LATE
W BUT DETAIL DIFFICULT TO CODE.  MOVED TOWARD HIGHER GUIDANCE
TONIGHT WITH THE TYPICAL SLOWER PUSH OF COOLER AIR TOWARD THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH UPPER TROUGH PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE CWA. STILL
EXPECTING QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS THE CWA FOR AT
LEAST THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...WITH A GRADUAL
CLEARING/DRYING TREND. WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EXPECT A
RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NOT MUCH GOING ON AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES UNDER A DEVELOPING
EASTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL BRING DRY AIR WITH LOTS OF
SUNSHINE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THE RESULT HERE WILL BE
A LARGE RANGE IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURES...BUT A DEFINITE WARMING TREND
FROM HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY TO AROUND 80 BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LACKING SOME CONFIDENCE IN THE AVIATION FORECAST TODAY.

COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BE A QUICK MOVER THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...DRIVEN BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. A LINE OF
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY FORMING WITH THIS COLD FRONT WHICH
DOMINATES THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE FORECAST.

THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF SOME GUSTY WINDS THAT ARE
ALREADY INCREASING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. ALSO INCLUDE BKW/MOUNTAINS
IN THE BETTER TSRA THREAT. HAVE TEMPO GROUPS FOR SHRA ONLY AT HTS
AND CRW.

THE FRONT ITSELF IS LOOKING A LITTLE RAGGED...SO THE COVERAGE OF
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS IS QUESTIONABLE AT THE TIME OF THIS
FORECAST. THIS IS THE REASON FOR THE TEMPOS INSTEAD OF THE
PREVAILING CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS.

WIND SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH WIND SPEEDS
COMING DOWN BELOW 10KTS TONIGHT.

EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO PERSIST BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE ADVECTION
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. OPTED
AGAINST FOG GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS STAYING
AROUND 5KTS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR STRATUS POSSIBLE MON MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. IFR
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE TUE MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVERS AND IN
BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/26
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS61 KRLX 211754
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
154 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS AFTERNOON.  AUTUMN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
MONDAY NIGHT...AND THEN DOMINATES THE WEATHER OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MUCH...IF NOT ALL...OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1000 AM UPDATE...
LINE HAS DEVELOPED AND IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CWA...BUT
WITH LITTLE FANFARE. UPDATED THE POPS TO REFLECT THIS AND
CURRENTLY AWAITING THE COLD FRONT AND THE CONVECTION FIRE WITH THE
MAIN BOUNDARY.

PREV DISC...
CONVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING IN AND IL EARLY THIS
MORNING STRUGGLING TO PUSH E AS INITIAL S/W TROUGH LIFTS OUT.  AS A
RESULT...CONVECTION HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO AN AXIS JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  AS A RESULT...SHOWERS DO NOT REACH THE UPSTREAM
/W/ EDGE OF THE FCST AREA UNTIL CLOSE TO DAYBREAK.

MODELS ESPECIALLY NEAR TERM MODELS INSIST THE PRECIPITATION MOVES
QUICKLY E ACROSS FCST AREA TODAY IN RESPONSE TO SECOND S/W TROUGH
WHICH ALSO LIFTS OUT THIS MORNING...SO THIS PRECIPITATION MAY AGAIN
STRUGGLE TO HOLD TOGETHER.  POPS EVENTUALLY COME CLOSER IN LINE WITH
PREV FCST AS FRONT AND WHATEVER DIURNAL HEATING WE CAN ACHIEVE
CONVERGE ON THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON BENEATH DIFFLUENT UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND FALLING HEIGHTS.  SO NAM DYNAMICS SUGGEST AT LEAST
TWO BANDS OF CONVECTION SWEEPING ACROSS WHILE WRFARW FOR EXAMPLE
SUGGESTS SEVERAL.

SEP HEATING AND CLOUD COVER EARLY ON WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HELPS PUSH MID LEVEL /H85-H7/ LAPSE RATES TO
6-7C/KM.  FLOW IS ALSO MARGINAL WITH 30 KTS AT H85 AND 40 KTS MID
LEVEL MEAN AND 60 KTS AT H5.  WILL BE DIFFICULT BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE
TO CONVERT THIS TO DAMAGING WIND AT THE SFC BUT ISOLATED STRONGER
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.  THINK ANY DAMAGE IS MINOR AND ISOLATED ENOUGH
FOR NO MENTION IN HWO AND NEAR TERM FCST.

H7-H5 LAPSE RATES ARE LOWER OWING TO A STABLE LEVEL THERE SO HAIL IS
NOT LIKELY DESPITE FREEZING LEVELS AS LOW AS 10 KFT AGL AND THE 60
KTS AT H5 WILL BE HARD TO TAP.  SPC KEEPS PROBABILITIES AT 5 PERCENT
ON BOTH IN A SEE TEXT.

BRIEF CLEARING TAKES PLACE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...BUT CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT IN THE CYCLONIC LOW
LEVEL FLOW BENEATH THE POST FRONTAL INVERSION.  CLOUD AND FLOW
SHOULD PRECLUDE DENSE FOG TONIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME POST RAIN MIST AND
LIMITED VALLEY FOG ARE LIKELY.

MET AND MAV WERE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREV FCST ON TEMPERATURES BUT
MADE JUST S SLIGHT MOVE IN THAT DIRECTION.  THE TIMING ON HIGHS WILL
VARY BASED ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...BASICALLY EARLY E AND LATE
W BUT DETAIL DIFFICULT TO CODE.  MOVED TOWARD HIGHER GUIDANCE
TONIGHT WITH THE TYPICAL SLOWER PUSH OF COOLER AIR TOWARD THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH UPPER TROUGH PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE CWA. STILL
EXPECTING QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS THE CWA FOR AT
LEAST THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...WITH A GRADUAL
CLEARING/DRYING TREND. WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EXPECT A
RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NOT MUCH GOING ON AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES UNDER A DEVELOPING
EASTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL BRING DRY AIR WITH LOTS OF
SUNSHINE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THE RESULT HERE WILL BE
A LARGE RANGE IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURES...BUT A DEFINITE WARMING TREND
FROM HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY TO AROUND 80 BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LACKING SOME CONFIDENCE IN THE AVIATION FORECAST TODAY.

COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BE A QUICK MOVER THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...DRIVEN BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. A LINE OF
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY FORMING WITH THIS COLD FRONT WHICH
DOMINATES THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE FORECAST.

THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF SOME GUSTY WINDS THAT ARE
ALREADY INCREASING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. ALSO INCLUDE BKW/MOUNTAINS
IN THE BETTER TSRA THREAT. HAVE TEMPO GROUPS FOR SHRA ONLY AT HTS
AND CRW.

THE FRONT ITSELF IS LOOKING A LITTLE RAGGED...SO THE COVERAGE OF
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS IS QUESTIONABLE AT THE TIME OF THIS
FORECAST. THIS IS THE REASON FOR THE TEMPOS INSTEAD OF THE
PREVAILING CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS.

WIND SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH WIND SPEEDS
COMING DOWN BELOW 10KTS TONIGHT.

EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO PERSIST BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE ADVECTION
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. OPTED
AGAINST FOG GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS STAYING
AROUND 5KTS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR STRATUS POSSIBLE MON MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. IFR
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE TUE MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVERS AND IN
BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/26
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...26








000
FXUS61 KRLX 211418
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1018 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS AFTERNOON.  AUTUMN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
MONDAY NIGHT...AND THEN DOMINATES THE WEATHER OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MUCH...IF NOT ALL...OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1000 AM UPDATE...
LINE HAS DEVELOPED AND IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CWA...BUT
WITH LITTLE FANFARE. UPDATED THE POPS TO REFLECT THIS AND
CURRENTLY AWAITING THE COLD FRONT AND THE CONVECTION FIRE WITH THE
MAIN BOUNDARY.

PREV DISCN...
CONVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING IN AND IL EARLY THIS
MORNING STRUGGLING TO PUSH E AS INITIAL S/W TROUGH LIFTS OUT.  AS A
RESULT...CONVECTION HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO AN AXIS JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  AS A RESULT...SHOWERS DO NOT REACH THE UPSTREAM
/W/ EDGE OF THE FCST AREA UNTIL CLOSE TO DAYBREAK.

MODELS ESPECIALLY NEAR TERM MODELS INSIST THE PRECIPITATION MOVES
QUICKLY E ACROSS FCST AREA TODAY IN RESPONSE TO SECOND S/W TROUGH
WHICH ALSO LIFTS OUT THIS MORNING...SO THIS PRECIPITATION MAY AGAIN
STRUGGLE TO HOLD TOGETHER.  POPS EVENTUALLY COME CLOSER IN LINE WITH
PREV FCST AS FRONT AND WHATEVER DIURNAL HEATING WE CAN ACHIEVE
CONVERGE ON THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON BENEATH DIFFLUENT UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND FALLING HEIGHTS.  SO NAM DYNAMICS SUGGEST AT LEAST
TWO BANDS OF CONVECTION SWEEPING ACROSS WHILE WRFARW FOR EXAMPLE
SUGGESTS SEVERAL.

SEP HEATING AND CLOUD COVER EARLY ON WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HELPS PUSH MID LEVEL /H85-H7/ LAPSE RATES TO
6-7C/KM.  FLOW IS ALSO MARGINAL WITH 30 KTS AT H85 AND 40 KTS MID
LEVEL MEAN AND 60 KTS AT H5.  WILL BE DIFFICULT BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE
TO CONVERT THIS TO DAMAGING WIND AT THE SFC BUT ISOLATED STRONGER
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.  THINK ANY DAMAGE IS MINOR AND ISOLATED ENOUGH
FOR NO MENTION IN HWO AND NEAR TERM FCST.

H7-H5 LAPSE RATES ARE LOWER OWING TO A STABLE LEVEL THERE SO HAIL IS
NOT LIKELY DESPITE FREEZING LEVELS AS LOW AS 10 KFT AGL AND THE 60
KTS AT H5 WILL BE HARD TO TAP.  SPC KEEPS PROBABILITIES AT 5 PERCENT
ON BOTH IN A SEE TEXT.

BRIEF CLEARING TAKES PLACE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...BUT CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT IN THE CYCLONIC LOW
LEVEL FLOW BENEATH THE POST FRONTAL INVERSION.  CLOUD AND FLOW
SHOULD PRECLUDE DENSE FOG TONIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME POST RAIN MIST AND
LIMITED VALLEY FOG ARE LIKELY.

MET AND MAV WERE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREV FCST ON TEMPERATURES BUT
MADE JUST S SLIGHT MOVE IN THAT DIRECTION.  THE TIMING ON HIGHS WILL
VARY BASED ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...BASICALLY EARLY E AND LATE
W BUT DETAIL DIFFICULT TO CODE.  MOVED TOWARD HIGHER GUIDANCE
TONIGHT WITH THE TYPICAL SLOWER PUSH OF COOLER AIR TOWARD THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH UPPER TROUGH PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE CWA. STILL
EXPECTING QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS THE CWA FOR AT
LEAST THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...WITH A GRADUAL
CLEARING/DRYING TREND. WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EXPECT A
RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT MUCH GOING ON AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES UNDER A DEVELOPING
EASTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL BRING DRY AIR WITH LOTS OF
SUNSHINE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THE RESULT HERE WILL BE
A LARGE RANGE IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURES...BUT A DEFINITE WARMING TREND
FROM HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY TO AROUND 80 BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY REMAINING VALLEY FOG WAS BEING SCOURED OUT EARLY THIS
MORNING...AS CLOUD AND WIND WERE INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W.

THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING SHRA/TSRA TO THE OHIO RIVER NEAR
15Z...CRW AND CKB 16Z AND THE MOUNTAINS 16-17Z.  THERE WILL BE ABOUT
A 5 HOUR PERIOD AT MOST SITES DURING WHICH SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE
AND IT WILL LIKELY COME IN TWO OR THREE BROKEN BANDS.

THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AROUND 00Z AND THE
MOUNTAINS 01-02Z.  STRATOCU FOLLOWING THE FRONT THIS EVENING WILL
LIKELY BE 4-5 KFT MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND MVFR 2-3 KFT
MOUNTAINS...BUT LOWER TO MVFR LOWLANDS OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY AOA
1-2 KFT...WITH IFR IN THE MOUNTAINS...BY 12Z MON.  POST-RAIN MVFR
MIST MAY FORM AS WELL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT THE FLOW SHOULD REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH FOR ALL BUT IFR FOG IN A FEW BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS.

SW SFC FLOW TODAY...A BIT GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...WILL BECOME  W TO
NW BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...A BIT
GUSTY INITIALLY.  LIGHT TO MODERATE W TO SW FLOW ALOFT MOST OF TODAY
WILL BECOME MODERATE NW TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA TODAY WILL VARY AS MAY
MVFR STRATOCU CIGS FOLLOWING THE FRONT TONIGHT AND MVFR MIST AND IFR
CIGS IN MOUNTAINS TOWARD DAWN MON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR STRATUS POSSIBLE MON MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.  IFR
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE TUE MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVERS AND IN
BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/26
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...TRM








000
FXUS61 KRLX 211418
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1018 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS AFTERNOON.  AUTUMN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
MONDAY NIGHT...AND THEN DOMINATES THE WEATHER OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MUCH...IF NOT ALL...OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1000 AM UPDATE...
LINE HAS DEVELOPED AND IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CWA...BUT
WITH LITTLE FANFARE. UPDATED THE POPS TO REFLECT THIS AND
CURRENTLY AWAITING THE COLD FRONT AND THE CONVECTION FIRE WITH THE
MAIN BOUNDARY.

PREV DISCN...
CONVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING IN AND IL EARLY THIS
MORNING STRUGGLING TO PUSH E AS INITIAL S/W TROUGH LIFTS OUT.  AS A
RESULT...CONVECTION HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO AN AXIS JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  AS A RESULT...SHOWERS DO NOT REACH THE UPSTREAM
/W/ EDGE OF THE FCST AREA UNTIL CLOSE TO DAYBREAK.

MODELS ESPECIALLY NEAR TERM MODELS INSIST THE PRECIPITATION MOVES
QUICKLY E ACROSS FCST AREA TODAY IN RESPONSE TO SECOND S/W TROUGH
WHICH ALSO LIFTS OUT THIS MORNING...SO THIS PRECIPITATION MAY AGAIN
STRUGGLE TO HOLD TOGETHER.  POPS EVENTUALLY COME CLOSER IN LINE WITH
PREV FCST AS FRONT AND WHATEVER DIURNAL HEATING WE CAN ACHIEVE
CONVERGE ON THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON BENEATH DIFFLUENT UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND FALLING HEIGHTS.  SO NAM DYNAMICS SUGGEST AT LEAST
TWO BANDS OF CONVECTION SWEEPING ACROSS WHILE WRFARW FOR EXAMPLE
SUGGESTS SEVERAL.

SEP HEATING AND CLOUD COVER EARLY ON WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HELPS PUSH MID LEVEL /H85-H7/ LAPSE RATES TO
6-7C/KM.  FLOW IS ALSO MARGINAL WITH 30 KTS AT H85 AND 40 KTS MID
LEVEL MEAN AND 60 KTS AT H5.  WILL BE DIFFICULT BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE
TO CONVERT THIS TO DAMAGING WIND AT THE SFC BUT ISOLATED STRONGER
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.  THINK ANY DAMAGE IS MINOR AND ISOLATED ENOUGH
FOR NO MENTION IN HWO AND NEAR TERM FCST.

H7-H5 LAPSE RATES ARE LOWER OWING TO A STABLE LEVEL THERE SO HAIL IS
NOT LIKELY DESPITE FREEZING LEVELS AS LOW AS 10 KFT AGL AND THE 60
KTS AT H5 WILL BE HARD TO TAP.  SPC KEEPS PROBABILITIES AT 5 PERCENT
ON BOTH IN A SEE TEXT.

BRIEF CLEARING TAKES PLACE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...BUT CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT IN THE CYCLONIC LOW
LEVEL FLOW BENEATH THE POST FRONTAL INVERSION.  CLOUD AND FLOW
SHOULD PRECLUDE DENSE FOG TONIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME POST RAIN MIST AND
LIMITED VALLEY FOG ARE LIKELY.

MET AND MAV WERE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREV FCST ON TEMPERATURES BUT
MADE JUST S SLIGHT MOVE IN THAT DIRECTION.  THE TIMING ON HIGHS WILL
VARY BASED ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...BASICALLY EARLY E AND LATE
W BUT DETAIL DIFFICULT TO CODE.  MOVED TOWARD HIGHER GUIDANCE
TONIGHT WITH THE TYPICAL SLOWER PUSH OF COOLER AIR TOWARD THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH UPPER TROUGH PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE CWA. STILL
EXPECTING QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS THE CWA FOR AT
LEAST THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...WITH A GRADUAL
CLEARING/DRYING TREND. WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EXPECT A
RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT MUCH GOING ON AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES UNDER A DEVELOPING
EASTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL BRING DRY AIR WITH LOTS OF
SUNSHINE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THE RESULT HERE WILL BE
A LARGE RANGE IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURES...BUT A DEFINITE WARMING TREND
FROM HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY TO AROUND 80 BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY REMAINING VALLEY FOG WAS BEING SCOURED OUT EARLY THIS
MORNING...AS CLOUD AND WIND WERE INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W.

THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING SHRA/TSRA TO THE OHIO RIVER NEAR
15Z...CRW AND CKB 16Z AND THE MOUNTAINS 16-17Z.  THERE WILL BE ABOUT
A 5 HOUR PERIOD AT MOST SITES DURING WHICH SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE
AND IT WILL LIKELY COME IN TWO OR THREE BROKEN BANDS.

THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AROUND 00Z AND THE
MOUNTAINS 01-02Z.  STRATOCU FOLLOWING THE FRONT THIS EVENING WILL
LIKELY BE 4-5 KFT MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND MVFR 2-3 KFT
MOUNTAINS...BUT LOWER TO MVFR LOWLANDS OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY AOA
1-2 KFT...WITH IFR IN THE MOUNTAINS...BY 12Z MON.  POST-RAIN MVFR
MIST MAY FORM AS WELL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT THE FLOW SHOULD REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH FOR ALL BUT IFR FOG IN A FEW BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS.

SW SFC FLOW TODAY...A BIT GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...WILL BECOME  W TO
NW BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...A BIT
GUSTY INITIALLY.  LIGHT TO MODERATE W TO SW FLOW ALOFT MOST OF TODAY
WILL BECOME MODERATE NW TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA TODAY WILL VARY AS MAY
MVFR STRATOCU CIGS FOLLOWING THE FRONT TONIGHT AND MVFR MIST AND IFR
CIGS IN MOUNTAINS TOWARD DAWN MON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR STRATUS POSSIBLE MON MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.  IFR
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE TUE MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVERS AND IN
BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/26
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...TRM








000
FXUS61 KRLX 211418
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1018 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS AFTERNOON.  AUTUMN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
MONDAY NIGHT...AND THEN DOMINATES THE WEATHER OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MUCH...IF NOT ALL...OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1000 AM UPDATE...
LINE HAS DEVELOPED AND IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CWA...BUT
WITH LITTLE FANFARE. UPDATED THE POPS TO REFLECT THIS AND
CURRENTLY AWAITING THE COLD FRONT AND THE CONVECTION FIRE WITH THE
MAIN BOUNDARY.

PREV DISCN...
CONVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING IN AND IL EARLY THIS
MORNING STRUGGLING TO PUSH E AS INITIAL S/W TROUGH LIFTS OUT.  AS A
RESULT...CONVECTION HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO AN AXIS JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  AS A RESULT...SHOWERS DO NOT REACH THE UPSTREAM
/W/ EDGE OF THE FCST AREA UNTIL CLOSE TO DAYBREAK.

MODELS ESPECIALLY NEAR TERM MODELS INSIST THE PRECIPITATION MOVES
QUICKLY E ACROSS FCST AREA TODAY IN RESPONSE TO SECOND S/W TROUGH
WHICH ALSO LIFTS OUT THIS MORNING...SO THIS PRECIPITATION MAY AGAIN
STRUGGLE TO HOLD TOGETHER.  POPS EVENTUALLY COME CLOSER IN LINE WITH
PREV FCST AS FRONT AND WHATEVER DIURNAL HEATING WE CAN ACHIEVE
CONVERGE ON THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON BENEATH DIFFLUENT UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND FALLING HEIGHTS.  SO NAM DYNAMICS SUGGEST AT LEAST
TWO BANDS OF CONVECTION SWEEPING ACROSS WHILE WRFARW FOR EXAMPLE
SUGGESTS SEVERAL.

SEP HEATING AND CLOUD COVER EARLY ON WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HELPS PUSH MID LEVEL /H85-H7/ LAPSE RATES TO
6-7C/KM.  FLOW IS ALSO MARGINAL WITH 30 KTS AT H85 AND 40 KTS MID
LEVEL MEAN AND 60 KTS AT H5.  WILL BE DIFFICULT BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE
TO CONVERT THIS TO DAMAGING WIND AT THE SFC BUT ISOLATED STRONGER
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.  THINK ANY DAMAGE IS MINOR AND ISOLATED ENOUGH
FOR NO MENTION IN HWO AND NEAR TERM FCST.

H7-H5 LAPSE RATES ARE LOWER OWING TO A STABLE LEVEL THERE SO HAIL IS
NOT LIKELY DESPITE FREEZING LEVELS AS LOW AS 10 KFT AGL AND THE 60
KTS AT H5 WILL BE HARD TO TAP.  SPC KEEPS PROBABILITIES AT 5 PERCENT
ON BOTH IN A SEE TEXT.

BRIEF CLEARING TAKES PLACE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...BUT CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT IN THE CYCLONIC LOW
LEVEL FLOW BENEATH THE POST FRONTAL INVERSION.  CLOUD AND FLOW
SHOULD PRECLUDE DENSE FOG TONIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME POST RAIN MIST AND
LIMITED VALLEY FOG ARE LIKELY.

MET AND MAV WERE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREV FCST ON TEMPERATURES BUT
MADE JUST S SLIGHT MOVE IN THAT DIRECTION.  THE TIMING ON HIGHS WILL
VARY BASED ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...BASICALLY EARLY E AND LATE
W BUT DETAIL DIFFICULT TO CODE.  MOVED TOWARD HIGHER GUIDANCE
TONIGHT WITH THE TYPICAL SLOWER PUSH OF COOLER AIR TOWARD THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH UPPER TROUGH PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE CWA. STILL
EXPECTING QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS THE CWA FOR AT
LEAST THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...WITH A GRADUAL
CLEARING/DRYING TREND. WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EXPECT A
RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT MUCH GOING ON AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES UNDER A DEVELOPING
EASTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL BRING DRY AIR WITH LOTS OF
SUNSHINE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THE RESULT HERE WILL BE
A LARGE RANGE IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURES...BUT A DEFINITE WARMING TREND
FROM HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY TO AROUND 80 BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY REMAINING VALLEY FOG WAS BEING SCOURED OUT EARLY THIS
MORNING...AS CLOUD AND WIND WERE INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W.

THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING SHRA/TSRA TO THE OHIO RIVER NEAR
15Z...CRW AND CKB 16Z AND THE MOUNTAINS 16-17Z.  THERE WILL BE ABOUT
A 5 HOUR PERIOD AT MOST SITES DURING WHICH SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE
AND IT WILL LIKELY COME IN TWO OR THREE BROKEN BANDS.

THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AROUND 00Z AND THE
MOUNTAINS 01-02Z.  STRATOCU FOLLOWING THE FRONT THIS EVENING WILL
LIKELY BE 4-5 KFT MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND MVFR 2-3 KFT
MOUNTAINS...BUT LOWER TO MVFR LOWLANDS OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY AOA
1-2 KFT...WITH IFR IN THE MOUNTAINS...BY 12Z MON.  POST-RAIN MVFR
MIST MAY FORM AS WELL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT THE FLOW SHOULD REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH FOR ALL BUT IFR FOG IN A FEW BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS.

SW SFC FLOW TODAY...A BIT GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...WILL BECOME  W TO
NW BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...A BIT
GUSTY INITIALLY.  LIGHT TO MODERATE W TO SW FLOW ALOFT MOST OF TODAY
WILL BECOME MODERATE NW TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA TODAY WILL VARY AS MAY
MVFR STRATOCU CIGS FOLLOWING THE FRONT TONIGHT AND MVFR MIST AND IFR
CIGS IN MOUNTAINS TOWARD DAWN MON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR STRATUS POSSIBLE MON MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.  IFR
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE TUE MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVERS AND IN
BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/26
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...TRM








000
FXUS61 KRLX 211418
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1018 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS AFTERNOON.  AUTUMN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
MONDAY NIGHT...AND THEN DOMINATES THE WEATHER OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MUCH...IF NOT ALL...OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1000 AM UPDATE...
LINE HAS DEVELOPED AND IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CWA...BUT
WITH LITTLE FANFARE. UPDATED THE POPS TO REFLECT THIS AND
CURRENTLY AWAITING THE COLD FRONT AND THE CONVECTION FIRE WITH THE
MAIN BOUNDARY.

PREV DISCN...
CONVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING IN AND IL EARLY THIS
MORNING STRUGGLING TO PUSH E AS INITIAL S/W TROUGH LIFTS OUT.  AS A
RESULT...CONVECTION HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO AN AXIS JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  AS A RESULT...SHOWERS DO NOT REACH THE UPSTREAM
/W/ EDGE OF THE FCST AREA UNTIL CLOSE TO DAYBREAK.

MODELS ESPECIALLY NEAR TERM MODELS INSIST THE PRECIPITATION MOVES
QUICKLY E ACROSS FCST AREA TODAY IN RESPONSE TO SECOND S/W TROUGH
WHICH ALSO LIFTS OUT THIS MORNING...SO THIS PRECIPITATION MAY AGAIN
STRUGGLE TO HOLD TOGETHER.  POPS EVENTUALLY COME CLOSER IN LINE WITH
PREV FCST AS FRONT AND WHATEVER DIURNAL HEATING WE CAN ACHIEVE
CONVERGE ON THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON BENEATH DIFFLUENT UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND FALLING HEIGHTS.  SO NAM DYNAMICS SUGGEST AT LEAST
TWO BANDS OF CONVECTION SWEEPING ACROSS WHILE WRFARW FOR EXAMPLE
SUGGESTS SEVERAL.

SEP HEATING AND CLOUD COVER EARLY ON WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HELPS PUSH MID LEVEL /H85-H7/ LAPSE RATES TO
6-7C/KM.  FLOW IS ALSO MARGINAL WITH 30 KTS AT H85 AND 40 KTS MID
LEVEL MEAN AND 60 KTS AT H5.  WILL BE DIFFICULT BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE
TO CONVERT THIS TO DAMAGING WIND AT THE SFC BUT ISOLATED STRONGER
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.  THINK ANY DAMAGE IS MINOR AND ISOLATED ENOUGH
FOR NO MENTION IN HWO AND NEAR TERM FCST.

H7-H5 LAPSE RATES ARE LOWER OWING TO A STABLE LEVEL THERE SO HAIL IS
NOT LIKELY DESPITE FREEZING LEVELS AS LOW AS 10 KFT AGL AND THE 60
KTS AT H5 WILL BE HARD TO TAP.  SPC KEEPS PROBABILITIES AT 5 PERCENT
ON BOTH IN A SEE TEXT.

BRIEF CLEARING TAKES PLACE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...BUT CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT IN THE CYCLONIC LOW
LEVEL FLOW BENEATH THE POST FRONTAL INVERSION.  CLOUD AND FLOW
SHOULD PRECLUDE DENSE FOG TONIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME POST RAIN MIST AND
LIMITED VALLEY FOG ARE LIKELY.

MET AND MAV WERE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREV FCST ON TEMPERATURES BUT
MADE JUST S SLIGHT MOVE IN THAT DIRECTION.  THE TIMING ON HIGHS WILL
VARY BASED ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...BASICALLY EARLY E AND LATE
W BUT DETAIL DIFFICULT TO CODE.  MOVED TOWARD HIGHER GUIDANCE
TONIGHT WITH THE TYPICAL SLOWER PUSH OF COOLER AIR TOWARD THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH UPPER TROUGH PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE CWA. STILL
EXPECTING QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS THE CWA FOR AT
LEAST THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...WITH A GRADUAL
CLEARING/DRYING TREND. WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EXPECT A
RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT MUCH GOING ON AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES UNDER A DEVELOPING
EASTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL BRING DRY AIR WITH LOTS OF
SUNSHINE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THE RESULT HERE WILL BE
A LARGE RANGE IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURES...BUT A DEFINITE WARMING TREND
FROM HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY TO AROUND 80 BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY REMAINING VALLEY FOG WAS BEING SCOURED OUT EARLY THIS
MORNING...AS CLOUD AND WIND WERE INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W.

THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING SHRA/TSRA TO THE OHIO RIVER NEAR
15Z...CRW AND CKB 16Z AND THE MOUNTAINS 16-17Z.  THERE WILL BE ABOUT
A 5 HOUR PERIOD AT MOST SITES DURING WHICH SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE
AND IT WILL LIKELY COME IN TWO OR THREE BROKEN BANDS.

THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AROUND 00Z AND THE
MOUNTAINS 01-02Z.  STRATOCU FOLLOWING THE FRONT THIS EVENING WILL
LIKELY BE 4-5 KFT MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND MVFR 2-3 KFT
MOUNTAINS...BUT LOWER TO MVFR LOWLANDS OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY AOA
1-2 KFT...WITH IFR IN THE MOUNTAINS...BY 12Z MON.  POST-RAIN MVFR
MIST MAY FORM AS WELL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT THE FLOW SHOULD REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH FOR ALL BUT IFR FOG IN A FEW BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS.

SW SFC FLOW TODAY...A BIT GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...WILL BECOME  W TO
NW BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...A BIT
GUSTY INITIALLY.  LIGHT TO MODERATE W TO SW FLOW ALOFT MOST OF TODAY
WILL BECOME MODERATE NW TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA TODAY WILL VARY AS MAY
MVFR STRATOCU CIGS FOLLOWING THE FRONT TONIGHT AND MVFR MIST AND IFR
CIGS IN MOUNTAINS TOWARD DAWN MON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR STRATUS POSSIBLE MON MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.  IFR
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE TUE MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVERS AND IN
BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/26
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...TRM








000
FXUS61 KRLX 211109
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
708 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS AFTERNOON.  AUTUMN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
MONDAY NIGHT...AND THEN DOMINATES THE WEATHER OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MUCH...IF NOT ALL...OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
700 AM UPDATE...
SLOWED PRECIPITATION DOWN FURTHER STILL...BUT FCST OTHERWISE REMAINS
ON TRACK.

PREV DISCN...
CONVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING IN AND IL EARLY THIS
MORNING STRUGGLING TO PUSH E AS INITIAL S/W TROUGH LIFTS OUT.  AS A
RESULT...CONVECTION HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO AN AXIS JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  AS A RESULT...SHOWERS DO NOT REACH THE UPSTREAM
/W/ EDGE OF THE FCST AREA UNTIL CLOSE TO DAYBREAK.

MODELS ESPECIALLY NEAR TERM MODELS INSIST THE PRECIPITATION MOVES
QUICKLY E ACROSS FCST AREA TODAY IN RESPONSE TO SECOND S/W TROUGH
WHICH ALSO LIFTS OUT THIS MORNING...SO THIS PRECIPITATION MAY AGAIN
STRUGGLE TO HOLD TOGETHER.  POPS EVENTUALLY COME CLOSER IN LINE WITH
PREV FCST AS FRONT AND WHATEVER DIURNAL HEATING WE CAN ACHIEVE
CONVERGE ON THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON BENEATH DIFFLUENT UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND FALLING HEIGHTS.  SO NAM DYNAMICS SUGGEST AT LEAST
TWO BANDS OF CONVECTION SWEEPING ACROSS WHILE WRFARW FOR EXAMPLE
SUGGESTS SEVERAL.

SEP HEATING AND CLOUD COVER EARLY ON WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HELPS PUSH MID LEVEL /H85-H7/ LAPSE RATES TO
6-7C/KM.  FLOW IS ALSO MARGINAL WITH 30 KTS AT H85 AND 40 KTS MID
LEVEL MEAN AND 60 KTS AT H5.  WILL BE DIFFICULT BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE
TO CONVERT THIS TO DAMAGING WIND AT THE SFC BUT ISOLATED STRONGER
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.  THINK ANY DAMAGE IS MINOR AND ISOLATED ENOUGH
FOR NO MENTION IN HWO AND NEAR TERM FCST.

H7-H5 LAPSE RATES ARE LOWER OWING TO A STABLE LEVEL THERE SO HAIL IS
NOT LIKELY DESPITE FREEZING LEVELS AS LOW AS 10 KFT AGL AND THE 60
KTS AT H5 WILL BE HARD TO TAP.  SPC KEEPS PROBABILITIES AT 5 PERCENT
ON BOTH IN A SEE TEXT.

BRIEF CLEARING TAKES PLACE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...BUT CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT IN THE CYCLONIC LOW
LEVEL FLOW BENEATH THE POST FRONTAL INVERSION.  CLOUD AND FLOW
SHOULD PRECLUDE DENSE FOG TONIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME POST RAIN MIST AND
LIMITED VALLEY FOG ARE LIKELY.

MET AND MAV WERE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREV FCST ON TEMPERATURES BUT
MADE JUST S SLIGHT MOVE IN THAT DIRECTION.  THE TIMING ON HIGHS WILL
VARY BASED ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...BASICALLY EARLY E AND LATE
W BUT DETAIL DIFFICULT TO CODE.  MOVED TOWARD HIGHER GUIDANCE
TONIGHT WITH THE TYPICAL SLOWER PUSH OF COOLER AIR TOWARD THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH UPPER TROUGH PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE CWA. STILL
EXPECTING QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS THE CWA FOR AT
LEAST THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...WITH A GRADUAL
CLEARING/DRYING TREND. WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EXPECT A
RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT MUCH GOING ON AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES UNDER A DEVELOPING
EASTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL BRING DRY AIR WITH LOTS OF
SUNSHINE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THE RESULT HERE WILL BE
A LARGE RANGE IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURES...BUT A DEFINITE WARMING TREND
FROM HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY TO AROUND 80 BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY REMAINING VALLEY FOG WAS BEING SCOURED OUT EARLY THIS
MORNING...AS CLOUD AND WIND WERE INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W.

THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING SHRA/TSRA TO THE OHIO RIVER NEAR
15Z...CRW AND CKB 16Z AND THE MOUNTAINS 16-17Z.  THERE WILL BE ABOUT
A 5 HOUR PERIOD AT MOST SITES DURING WHICH SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE
AND IT WILL LIKELY COME IN TWO OR THREE BROKEN BANDS.

THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AROUND 00Z AND THE
MOUNTAINS 01-02Z.  STRATOCU FOLLOWING THE FRONT THIS EVENING WILL
LIKELY BE 4-5 KFT MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND MVFR 2-3 KFT
MOUNTAINS...BUT LOWER TO MVFR LOWLANDS OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY AOA
1-2 KFT...WITH IFR IN THE MOUNTAINS...BY 12Z MON.  POST-RAIN MVFR
MIST MAY FORM AS WELL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT THE FLOW SHOULD REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH FOR ALL BUT IFR FOG IN A FEW BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS.

SW SFC FLOW TODAY...A BIT GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...WILL BECOME  W TO
NW BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...A BIT
GUSTY INITIALLY.  LIGHT TO MODERATE W TO SW FLOW ALOFT MOST OF TODAY
WILL BECOME MODERATE NW TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA TODAY WILL VARY AS MAY
MVFR STRATOCU CIGS FOLLOWING THE FRONT TONIGHT AND MVFR MIST AND IFR
CIGS IN MOUNTAINS TOWARD DAWN MON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    M    M    H    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR STRATUS POSSIBLE MON MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.  IFR
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE TUE MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVERS AND IN
BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...TRM







000
FXUS61 KRLX 211109
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
708 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS AFTERNOON.  AUTUMN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
MONDAY NIGHT...AND THEN DOMINATES THE WEATHER OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MUCH...IF NOT ALL...OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
700 AM UPDATE...
SLOWED PRECIPITATION DOWN FURTHER STILL...BUT FCST OTHERWISE REMAINS
ON TRACK.

PREV DISCN...
CONVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING IN AND IL EARLY THIS
MORNING STRUGGLING TO PUSH E AS INITIAL S/W TROUGH LIFTS OUT.  AS A
RESULT...CONVECTION HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO AN AXIS JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  AS A RESULT...SHOWERS DO NOT REACH THE UPSTREAM
/W/ EDGE OF THE FCST AREA UNTIL CLOSE TO DAYBREAK.

MODELS ESPECIALLY NEAR TERM MODELS INSIST THE PRECIPITATION MOVES
QUICKLY E ACROSS FCST AREA TODAY IN RESPONSE TO SECOND S/W TROUGH
WHICH ALSO LIFTS OUT THIS MORNING...SO THIS PRECIPITATION MAY AGAIN
STRUGGLE TO HOLD TOGETHER.  POPS EVENTUALLY COME CLOSER IN LINE WITH
PREV FCST AS FRONT AND WHATEVER DIURNAL HEATING WE CAN ACHIEVE
CONVERGE ON THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON BENEATH DIFFLUENT UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND FALLING HEIGHTS.  SO NAM DYNAMICS SUGGEST AT LEAST
TWO BANDS OF CONVECTION SWEEPING ACROSS WHILE WRFARW FOR EXAMPLE
SUGGESTS SEVERAL.

SEP HEATING AND CLOUD COVER EARLY ON WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HELPS PUSH MID LEVEL /H85-H7/ LAPSE RATES TO
6-7C/KM.  FLOW IS ALSO MARGINAL WITH 30 KTS AT H85 AND 40 KTS MID
LEVEL MEAN AND 60 KTS AT H5.  WILL BE DIFFICULT BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE
TO CONVERT THIS TO DAMAGING WIND AT THE SFC BUT ISOLATED STRONGER
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.  THINK ANY DAMAGE IS MINOR AND ISOLATED ENOUGH
FOR NO MENTION IN HWO AND NEAR TERM FCST.

H7-H5 LAPSE RATES ARE LOWER OWING TO A STABLE LEVEL THERE SO HAIL IS
NOT LIKELY DESPITE FREEZING LEVELS AS LOW AS 10 KFT AGL AND THE 60
KTS AT H5 WILL BE HARD TO TAP.  SPC KEEPS PROBABILITIES AT 5 PERCENT
ON BOTH IN A SEE TEXT.

BRIEF CLEARING TAKES PLACE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...BUT CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT IN THE CYCLONIC LOW
LEVEL FLOW BENEATH THE POST FRONTAL INVERSION.  CLOUD AND FLOW
SHOULD PRECLUDE DENSE FOG TONIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME POST RAIN MIST AND
LIMITED VALLEY FOG ARE LIKELY.

MET AND MAV WERE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREV FCST ON TEMPERATURES BUT
MADE JUST S SLIGHT MOVE IN THAT DIRECTION.  THE TIMING ON HIGHS WILL
VARY BASED ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...BASICALLY EARLY E AND LATE
W BUT DETAIL DIFFICULT TO CODE.  MOVED TOWARD HIGHER GUIDANCE
TONIGHT WITH THE TYPICAL SLOWER PUSH OF COOLER AIR TOWARD THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH UPPER TROUGH PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE CWA. STILL
EXPECTING QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS THE CWA FOR AT
LEAST THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...WITH A GRADUAL
CLEARING/DRYING TREND. WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EXPECT A
RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT MUCH GOING ON AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES UNDER A DEVELOPING
EASTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL BRING DRY AIR WITH LOTS OF
SUNSHINE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THE RESULT HERE WILL BE
A LARGE RANGE IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURES...BUT A DEFINITE WARMING TREND
FROM HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY TO AROUND 80 BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY REMAINING VALLEY FOG WAS BEING SCOURED OUT EARLY THIS
MORNING...AS CLOUD AND WIND WERE INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W.

THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING SHRA/TSRA TO THE OHIO RIVER NEAR
15Z...CRW AND CKB 16Z AND THE MOUNTAINS 16-17Z.  THERE WILL BE ABOUT
A 5 HOUR PERIOD AT MOST SITES DURING WHICH SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE
AND IT WILL LIKELY COME IN TWO OR THREE BROKEN BANDS.

THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AROUND 00Z AND THE
MOUNTAINS 01-02Z.  STRATOCU FOLLOWING THE FRONT THIS EVENING WILL
LIKELY BE 4-5 KFT MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND MVFR 2-3 KFT
MOUNTAINS...BUT LOWER TO MVFR LOWLANDS OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY AOA
1-2 KFT...WITH IFR IN THE MOUNTAINS...BY 12Z MON.  POST-RAIN MVFR
MIST MAY FORM AS WELL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT THE FLOW SHOULD REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH FOR ALL BUT IFR FOG IN A FEW BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS.

SW SFC FLOW TODAY...A BIT GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...WILL BECOME  W TO
NW BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...A BIT
GUSTY INITIALLY.  LIGHT TO MODERATE W TO SW FLOW ALOFT MOST OF TODAY
WILL BECOME MODERATE NW TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA TODAY WILL VARY AS MAY
MVFR STRATOCU CIGS FOLLOWING THE FRONT TONIGHT AND MVFR MIST AND IFR
CIGS IN MOUNTAINS TOWARD DAWN MON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    M    M    H    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR STRATUS POSSIBLE MON MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.  IFR
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE TUE MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVERS AND IN
BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...TRM






000
FXUS61 KRLX 210921
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
520 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS AFTERNOON.  AUTUMN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
MONDAY NIGHT...AND THEN DOMINATES THE WEATHER OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MUCH...IF NOT ALL...OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING IN AND IL EARLY THIS
MORNING STRUGGLING TO PUSH E AS INITIAL S/W TROUGH LIFTS OUT.  AS A
RESULT...CONVECTION HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO AN AXIS JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  AS A RESULT...SHOWERS DO NOT REACH THE UPSTREAM
/W/ EDGE OF THE FCST AREA UNTIL CLOSE TO DAYBREAK.

MODELS ESPECIALLY NEAR TERM MODELS INSIST THE PRECIPITATION MOVES
QUICKLY E ACROSS FCST AREA TODAY IN RESPONSE TO SECOND S/W TROUGH
WHICH ALSO LIFTS OUT THIS MORNING...SO THIS PRECIPITATION MAY AGAIN
STRUGGLE TO HOLD TOGETHER.  POPS EVENTUALLY COME CLOSER IN LINE WITH
PREV FCST AS FRONT AND WHATEVER DIURNAL HEATING WE CAN ACHIEVE
CONVERGE ON THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON BENEATH DIFFLUENT UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND FALLING HEIGHTS.  SO NAM DYNAMICS SUGGEST AT LEAST
TWO BANDS OF CONVECTION SWEEPING ACROSS WHILE WRFARW FOR EXAMPLE
SUGGESTS SEVERAL.

SEP HEATING AND CLOUD COVER EARLY ON WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HELPS PUSH MID LEVEL /H85-H7/ LAPSE RATES TO
6-7C/KM.  FLOW IS ALSO MARGINAL WITH 30 KTS AT H85 AND 40 KTS MID
LEVEL MEAN AND 60 KTS AT H5.  WILL BE DIFFICULT BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE
TO CONVERT THIS TO DAMAGING WIND AT THE SFC BUT ISOLATED STRONGER
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.  THINK ANY DAMAGE IS MINOR AND ISOLATED ENOUGH
FOR NO MENTION IN HWO AND NEAR TERM FCST.

H7-H5 LAPSE RATES ARE LOWER OWING TO A STABLE LEVEL THERE SO HAIL IS
NOT LIKELY DESPITE FREEZING LEVELS AS LOW AS 10 KFT AGL AND THE 60
KTS AT H5 WILL BE HARD TO TAP.  SPC KEEPS PROBABILITIES AT 5 PERCENT
ON BOTH IN A SEE TEXT.

BRIEF CLEARING TAKES PLACE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...BUT CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT IN THE CYCLONIC LOW
LEVEL FLOW BENEATH THE POST FRONTAL INVERSION.  CLOUD AND FLOW
SHOULD PRECLUDE DENSE FOG TONIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME POST RAIN MIST AND
LIMITED VALLEY FOG ARE LIKELY.

MET AND MAV WERE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREV FCST ON TEMPERATURES BUT
MADE JUST S SLIGHT MOVE IN THAT DIRECTION.  THE TIMING ON HIGHS WILL
VARY BASED ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...BASICALLY EARLY E AND LATE
W BUT DETAIL DIFFICULT TO CODE.  MOVED TOWARD HIGHER GUIDANCE
TONIGHT WITH THE TYPICAL SLOWER PUSH OF COOLER AIR TOWARD THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH UPPER TROUGH PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE CWA. STILL
EXPECTING QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS THE CWA FOR AT
LEAST THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...WITH A GRADUAL
CLEARING/DRYING TREND. WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EXPECT A
RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT MUCH GOING ON AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES UNDER A DEVELOPING
EASTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL BRING DRY AIR WITH LOTS OF
SUNSHINE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THE RESULT HERE WILL BE
A LARGE RANGE IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURES...BUT A DEFINITE WARMING TREND
FROM HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY TO AROUND 80 BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH WEAKER LOW LEVEL FLOW COMPARED WITH FRI NT...THE BOUNDARY LAYER
HAS DECOUPLED IN THE VALLEYS.  THIS ALLOWS IFR TO AT TIMES VLIFR
DENSE FOG IN THE TYGART VALLEY / EKN / OVERNIGHT...WITH MVFR AT
TIMES ELSEWHERE EXCEPT PKB / TO CLOSE TO APPROACHING FRONT / AND BKW
/ SOME WIND ON THE RIDGE /.  ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER
DAYBREAK IF NOT BEFORE...AS THE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN
CLOUD AND FLOW APPROACH.

THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING SHRA/TSRA TO THE OHIO RIVER NEAR
14Z...CRW AND CKB 15Z AND THE MOUNTAINS BY 16Z.  THERE WILL BE ABOUT
A 6 HOUR PERIOD AT MOST SITES DURING WHICH SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE
AND IT WILL LIKELY COME IN TWO OR THREE BROKEN BANDS.

THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AROUND 00Z AND THE
MOUNTAINS 01-02Z.  STRATOCU FOLLOWING THE FRONT SUNDAY EVENING WILL
LIKELY BE 4-5 KFT MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND MVFR 2-3 KFT MOUNTAINS.

LIGHT S SFC FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SW SUN...A BIT GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND THEN W TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SUN AND SUN
EVENING...A BIT GUSTY INITIALLY.  LIGHT TO MODERATE W TO SW FLOW
ALOFT OVERNIGHT AND MOST OF SUNDAY WILL BECOME MODERATE NW SUN NT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING AND DENSITY IN QUESTION OVERNIGHT
DEPENDING ON THE ARRIVAL TIME OF FRONTAL CLOUDS.  IF CLOUDS WERE TO
SLOW...THEN RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD BE DENSER AND MORE WIDESPREAD.
CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY WILL VARY AS MAY MVFR STRATOCU CIGS
FOLLOWING THE FRONT SUNDAY EVENING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SUN 09/21/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR STRATUS POSSIBLE MON MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.  IFR
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE TUE MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVERS AND IN
BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...TRM






000
FXUS61 KRLX 210921
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
520 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS AFTERNOON.  AUTUMN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
MONDAY NIGHT...AND THEN DOMINATES THE WEATHER OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MUCH...IF NOT ALL...OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING IN AND IL EARLY THIS
MORNING STRUGGLING TO PUSH E AS INITIAL S/W TROUGH LIFTS OUT.  AS A
RESULT...CONVECTION HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO AN AXIS JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  AS A RESULT...SHOWERS DO NOT REACH THE UPSTREAM
/W/ EDGE OF THE FCST AREA UNTIL CLOSE TO DAYBREAK.

MODELS ESPECIALLY NEAR TERM MODELS INSIST THE PRECIPITATION MOVES
QUICKLY E ACROSS FCST AREA TODAY IN RESPONSE TO SECOND S/W TROUGH
WHICH ALSO LIFTS OUT THIS MORNING...SO THIS PRECIPITATION MAY AGAIN
STRUGGLE TO HOLD TOGETHER.  POPS EVENTUALLY COME CLOSER IN LINE WITH
PREV FCST AS FRONT AND WHATEVER DIURNAL HEATING WE CAN ACHIEVE
CONVERGE ON THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON BENEATH DIFFLUENT UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND FALLING HEIGHTS.  SO NAM DYNAMICS SUGGEST AT LEAST
TWO BANDS OF CONVECTION SWEEPING ACROSS WHILE WRFARW FOR EXAMPLE
SUGGESTS SEVERAL.

SEP HEATING AND CLOUD COVER EARLY ON WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HELPS PUSH MID LEVEL /H85-H7/ LAPSE RATES TO
6-7C/KM.  FLOW IS ALSO MARGINAL WITH 30 KTS AT H85 AND 40 KTS MID
LEVEL MEAN AND 60 KTS AT H5.  WILL BE DIFFICULT BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE
TO CONVERT THIS TO DAMAGING WIND AT THE SFC BUT ISOLATED STRONGER
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.  THINK ANY DAMAGE IS MINOR AND ISOLATED ENOUGH
FOR NO MENTION IN HWO AND NEAR TERM FCST.

H7-H5 LAPSE RATES ARE LOWER OWING TO A STABLE LEVEL THERE SO HAIL IS
NOT LIKELY DESPITE FREEZING LEVELS AS LOW AS 10 KFT AGL AND THE 60
KTS AT H5 WILL BE HARD TO TAP.  SPC KEEPS PROBABILITIES AT 5 PERCENT
ON BOTH IN A SEE TEXT.

BRIEF CLEARING TAKES PLACE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...BUT CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT IN THE CYCLONIC LOW
LEVEL FLOW BENEATH THE POST FRONTAL INVERSION.  CLOUD AND FLOW
SHOULD PRECLUDE DENSE FOG TONIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME POST RAIN MIST AND
LIMITED VALLEY FOG ARE LIKELY.

MET AND MAV WERE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREV FCST ON TEMPERATURES BUT
MADE JUST S SLIGHT MOVE IN THAT DIRECTION.  THE TIMING ON HIGHS WILL
VARY BASED ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...BASICALLY EARLY E AND LATE
W BUT DETAIL DIFFICULT TO CODE.  MOVED TOWARD HIGHER GUIDANCE
TONIGHT WITH THE TYPICAL SLOWER PUSH OF COOLER AIR TOWARD THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH UPPER TROUGH PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE CWA. STILL
EXPECTING QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS THE CWA FOR AT
LEAST THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...WITH A GRADUAL
CLEARING/DRYING TREND. WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EXPECT A
RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT MUCH GOING ON AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES UNDER A DEVELOPING
EASTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL BRING DRY AIR WITH LOTS OF
SUNSHINE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THE RESULT HERE WILL BE
A LARGE RANGE IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURES...BUT A DEFINITE WARMING TREND
FROM HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY TO AROUND 80 BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH WEAKER LOW LEVEL FLOW COMPARED WITH FRI NT...THE BOUNDARY LAYER
HAS DECOUPLED IN THE VALLEYS.  THIS ALLOWS IFR TO AT TIMES VLIFR
DENSE FOG IN THE TYGART VALLEY / EKN / OVERNIGHT...WITH MVFR AT
TIMES ELSEWHERE EXCEPT PKB / TO CLOSE TO APPROACHING FRONT / AND BKW
/ SOME WIND ON THE RIDGE /.  ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER
DAYBREAK IF NOT BEFORE...AS THE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN
CLOUD AND FLOW APPROACH.

THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING SHRA/TSRA TO THE OHIO RIVER NEAR
14Z...CRW AND CKB 15Z AND THE MOUNTAINS BY 16Z.  THERE WILL BE ABOUT
A 6 HOUR PERIOD AT MOST SITES DURING WHICH SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE
AND IT WILL LIKELY COME IN TWO OR THREE BROKEN BANDS.

THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AROUND 00Z AND THE
MOUNTAINS 01-02Z.  STRATOCU FOLLOWING THE FRONT SUNDAY EVENING WILL
LIKELY BE 4-5 KFT MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND MVFR 2-3 KFT MOUNTAINS.

LIGHT S SFC FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SW SUN...A BIT GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND THEN W TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SUN AND SUN
EVENING...A BIT GUSTY INITIALLY.  LIGHT TO MODERATE W TO SW FLOW
ALOFT OVERNIGHT AND MOST OF SUNDAY WILL BECOME MODERATE NW SUN NT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING AND DENSITY IN QUESTION OVERNIGHT
DEPENDING ON THE ARRIVAL TIME OF FRONTAL CLOUDS.  IF CLOUDS WERE TO
SLOW...THEN RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD BE DENSER AND MORE WIDESPREAD.
CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY WILL VARY AS MAY MVFR STRATOCU CIGS
FOLLOWING THE FRONT SUNDAY EVENING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SUN 09/21/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR STRATUS POSSIBLE MON MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.  IFR
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE TUE MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVERS AND IN
BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...TRM






000
FXUS61 KRLX 210921
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
520 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS AFTERNOON.  AUTUMN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
MONDAY NIGHT...AND THEN DOMINATES THE WEATHER OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MUCH...IF NOT ALL...OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING IN AND IL EARLY THIS
MORNING STRUGGLING TO PUSH E AS INITIAL S/W TROUGH LIFTS OUT.  AS A
RESULT...CONVECTION HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO AN AXIS JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  AS A RESULT...SHOWERS DO NOT REACH THE UPSTREAM
/W/ EDGE OF THE FCST AREA UNTIL CLOSE TO DAYBREAK.

MODELS ESPECIALLY NEAR TERM MODELS INSIST THE PRECIPITATION MOVES
QUICKLY E ACROSS FCST AREA TODAY IN RESPONSE TO SECOND S/W TROUGH
WHICH ALSO LIFTS OUT THIS MORNING...SO THIS PRECIPITATION MAY AGAIN
STRUGGLE TO HOLD TOGETHER.  POPS EVENTUALLY COME CLOSER IN LINE WITH
PREV FCST AS FRONT AND WHATEVER DIURNAL HEATING WE CAN ACHIEVE
CONVERGE ON THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON BENEATH DIFFLUENT UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND FALLING HEIGHTS.  SO NAM DYNAMICS SUGGEST AT LEAST
TWO BANDS OF CONVECTION SWEEPING ACROSS WHILE WRFARW FOR EXAMPLE
SUGGESTS SEVERAL.

SEP HEATING AND CLOUD COVER EARLY ON WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HELPS PUSH MID LEVEL /H85-H7/ LAPSE RATES TO
6-7C/KM.  FLOW IS ALSO MARGINAL WITH 30 KTS AT H85 AND 40 KTS MID
LEVEL MEAN AND 60 KTS AT H5.  WILL BE DIFFICULT BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE
TO CONVERT THIS TO DAMAGING WIND AT THE SFC BUT ISOLATED STRONGER
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.  THINK ANY DAMAGE IS MINOR AND ISOLATED ENOUGH
FOR NO MENTION IN HWO AND NEAR TERM FCST.

H7-H5 LAPSE RATES ARE LOWER OWING TO A STABLE LEVEL THERE SO HAIL IS
NOT LIKELY DESPITE FREEZING LEVELS AS LOW AS 10 KFT AGL AND THE 60
KTS AT H5 WILL BE HARD TO TAP.  SPC KEEPS PROBABILITIES AT 5 PERCENT
ON BOTH IN A SEE TEXT.

BRIEF CLEARING TAKES PLACE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...BUT CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT IN THE CYCLONIC LOW
LEVEL FLOW BENEATH THE POST FRONTAL INVERSION.  CLOUD AND FLOW
SHOULD PRECLUDE DENSE FOG TONIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME POST RAIN MIST AND
LIMITED VALLEY FOG ARE LIKELY.

MET AND MAV WERE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREV FCST ON TEMPERATURES BUT
MADE JUST S SLIGHT MOVE IN THAT DIRECTION.  THE TIMING ON HIGHS WILL
VARY BASED ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...BASICALLY EARLY E AND LATE
W BUT DETAIL DIFFICULT TO CODE.  MOVED TOWARD HIGHER GUIDANCE
TONIGHT WITH THE TYPICAL SLOWER PUSH OF COOLER AIR TOWARD THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH UPPER TROUGH PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE CWA. STILL
EXPECTING QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS THE CWA FOR AT
LEAST THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...WITH A GRADUAL
CLEARING/DRYING TREND. WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EXPECT A
RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT MUCH GOING ON AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES UNDER A DEVELOPING
EASTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL BRING DRY AIR WITH LOTS OF
SUNSHINE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THE RESULT HERE WILL BE
A LARGE RANGE IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURES...BUT A DEFINITE WARMING TREND
FROM HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY TO AROUND 80 BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH WEAKER LOW LEVEL FLOW COMPARED WITH FRI NT...THE BOUNDARY LAYER
HAS DECOUPLED IN THE VALLEYS.  THIS ALLOWS IFR TO AT TIMES VLIFR
DENSE FOG IN THE TYGART VALLEY / EKN / OVERNIGHT...WITH MVFR AT
TIMES ELSEWHERE EXCEPT PKB / TO CLOSE TO APPROACHING FRONT / AND BKW
/ SOME WIND ON THE RIDGE /.  ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER
DAYBREAK IF NOT BEFORE...AS THE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN
CLOUD AND FLOW APPROACH.

THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING SHRA/TSRA TO THE OHIO RIVER NEAR
14Z...CRW AND CKB 15Z AND THE MOUNTAINS BY 16Z.  THERE WILL BE ABOUT
A 6 HOUR PERIOD AT MOST SITES DURING WHICH SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE
AND IT WILL LIKELY COME IN TWO OR THREE BROKEN BANDS.

THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AROUND 00Z AND THE
MOUNTAINS 01-02Z.  STRATOCU FOLLOWING THE FRONT SUNDAY EVENING WILL
LIKELY BE 4-5 KFT MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND MVFR 2-3 KFT MOUNTAINS.

LIGHT S SFC FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SW SUN...A BIT GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND THEN W TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SUN AND SUN
EVENING...A BIT GUSTY INITIALLY.  LIGHT TO MODERATE W TO SW FLOW
ALOFT OVERNIGHT AND MOST OF SUNDAY WILL BECOME MODERATE NW SUN NT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING AND DENSITY IN QUESTION OVERNIGHT
DEPENDING ON THE ARRIVAL TIME OF FRONTAL CLOUDS.  IF CLOUDS WERE TO
SLOW...THEN RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD BE DENSER AND MORE WIDESPREAD.
CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY WILL VARY AS MAY MVFR STRATOCU CIGS
FOLLOWING THE FRONT SUNDAY EVENING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SUN 09/21/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR STRATUS POSSIBLE MON MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.  IFR
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE TUE MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVERS AND IN
BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...TRM






000
FXUS61 KRLX 210921
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
520 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS AFTERNOON.  AUTUMN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
MONDAY NIGHT...AND THEN DOMINATES THE WEATHER OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MUCH...IF NOT ALL...OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING IN AND IL EARLY THIS
MORNING STRUGGLING TO PUSH E AS INITIAL S/W TROUGH LIFTS OUT.  AS A
RESULT...CONVECTION HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO AN AXIS JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  AS A RESULT...SHOWERS DO NOT REACH THE UPSTREAM
/W/ EDGE OF THE FCST AREA UNTIL CLOSE TO DAYBREAK.

MODELS ESPECIALLY NEAR TERM MODELS INSIST THE PRECIPITATION MOVES
QUICKLY E ACROSS FCST AREA TODAY IN RESPONSE TO SECOND S/W TROUGH
WHICH ALSO LIFTS OUT THIS MORNING...SO THIS PRECIPITATION MAY AGAIN
STRUGGLE TO HOLD TOGETHER.  POPS EVENTUALLY COME CLOSER IN LINE WITH
PREV FCST AS FRONT AND WHATEVER DIURNAL HEATING WE CAN ACHIEVE
CONVERGE ON THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON BENEATH DIFFLUENT UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND FALLING HEIGHTS.  SO NAM DYNAMICS SUGGEST AT LEAST
TWO BANDS OF CONVECTION SWEEPING ACROSS WHILE WRFARW FOR EXAMPLE
SUGGESTS SEVERAL.

SEP HEATING AND CLOUD COVER EARLY ON WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HELPS PUSH MID LEVEL /H85-H7/ LAPSE RATES TO
6-7C/KM.  FLOW IS ALSO MARGINAL WITH 30 KTS AT H85 AND 40 KTS MID
LEVEL MEAN AND 60 KTS AT H5.  WILL BE DIFFICULT BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE
TO CONVERT THIS TO DAMAGING WIND AT THE SFC BUT ISOLATED STRONGER
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.  THINK ANY DAMAGE IS MINOR AND ISOLATED ENOUGH
FOR NO MENTION IN HWO AND NEAR TERM FCST.

H7-H5 LAPSE RATES ARE LOWER OWING TO A STABLE LEVEL THERE SO HAIL IS
NOT LIKELY DESPITE FREEZING LEVELS AS LOW AS 10 KFT AGL AND THE 60
KTS AT H5 WILL BE HARD TO TAP.  SPC KEEPS PROBABILITIES AT 5 PERCENT
ON BOTH IN A SEE TEXT.

BRIEF CLEARING TAKES PLACE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...BUT CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT IN THE CYCLONIC LOW
LEVEL FLOW BENEATH THE POST FRONTAL INVERSION.  CLOUD AND FLOW
SHOULD PRECLUDE DENSE FOG TONIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME POST RAIN MIST AND
LIMITED VALLEY FOG ARE LIKELY.

MET AND MAV WERE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREV FCST ON TEMPERATURES BUT
MADE JUST S SLIGHT MOVE IN THAT DIRECTION.  THE TIMING ON HIGHS WILL
VARY BASED ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...BASICALLY EARLY E AND LATE
W BUT DETAIL DIFFICULT TO CODE.  MOVED TOWARD HIGHER GUIDANCE
TONIGHT WITH THE TYPICAL SLOWER PUSH OF COOLER AIR TOWARD THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH UPPER TROUGH PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE CWA. STILL
EXPECTING QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS THE CWA FOR AT
LEAST THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...WITH A GRADUAL
CLEARING/DRYING TREND. WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EXPECT A
RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT MUCH GOING ON AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES UNDER A DEVELOPING
EASTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL BRING DRY AIR WITH LOTS OF
SUNSHINE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THE RESULT HERE WILL BE
A LARGE RANGE IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURES...BUT A DEFINITE WARMING TREND
FROM HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY TO AROUND 80 BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH WEAKER LOW LEVEL FLOW COMPARED WITH FRI NT...THE BOUNDARY LAYER
HAS DECOUPLED IN THE VALLEYS.  THIS ALLOWS IFR TO AT TIMES VLIFR
DENSE FOG IN THE TYGART VALLEY / EKN / OVERNIGHT...WITH MVFR AT
TIMES ELSEWHERE EXCEPT PKB / TO CLOSE TO APPROACHING FRONT / AND BKW
/ SOME WIND ON THE RIDGE /.  ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER
DAYBREAK IF NOT BEFORE...AS THE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN
CLOUD AND FLOW APPROACH.

THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING SHRA/TSRA TO THE OHIO RIVER NEAR
14Z...CRW AND CKB 15Z AND THE MOUNTAINS BY 16Z.  THERE WILL BE ABOUT
A 6 HOUR PERIOD AT MOST SITES DURING WHICH SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE
AND IT WILL LIKELY COME IN TWO OR THREE BROKEN BANDS.

THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AROUND 00Z AND THE
MOUNTAINS 01-02Z.  STRATOCU FOLLOWING THE FRONT SUNDAY EVENING WILL
LIKELY BE 4-5 KFT MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND MVFR 2-3 KFT MOUNTAINS.

LIGHT S SFC FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SW SUN...A BIT GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND THEN W TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SUN AND SUN
EVENING...A BIT GUSTY INITIALLY.  LIGHT TO MODERATE W TO SW FLOW
ALOFT OVERNIGHT AND MOST OF SUNDAY WILL BECOME MODERATE NW SUN NT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING AND DENSITY IN QUESTION OVERNIGHT
DEPENDING ON THE ARRIVAL TIME OF FRONTAL CLOUDS.  IF CLOUDS WERE TO
SLOW...THEN RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD BE DENSER AND MORE WIDESPREAD.
CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY WILL VARY AS MAY MVFR STRATOCU CIGS
FOLLOWING THE FRONT SUNDAY EVENING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SUN 09/21/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR STRATUS POSSIBLE MON MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.  IFR
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE TUE MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVERS AND IN
BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...TRM






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