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000
FXUS61 KRLX 311437
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1037 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL...DRY AIRMASS HANGS ON THROUGH TODAY. HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY BEGINNING FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK SAVE FOR REMOVAL OF SCHC POPS NORTH CENTRAL WV LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCN...
5H TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH PRIMARY AXIS LIFTING
NORTHWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS LEADING TO SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND. MEANWHILE...A
SOUTHERN STREAM FEATURE WILL MAKE APPROACH TO SOUTHERN
COALFIELDS...AND SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA BY TONIGHT. NOTED A
WEAK S/W WORKING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN OH KICKING OFF A FEW
SPRINKLES EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS HINT THAT
THIS FEATURE MAY BECOME MORE ACTIVE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
INTRODUCED A MENTION OF SOME LATE MORNING MID AFTERNOON SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS AS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
MAY BE AROUND TO HAVE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. RELIED ON BIAS
CORRECTED VALUES FOR TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
REALLY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS MODELS MAINTAIN
GOOD CONTINUITY IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THIS CONSISTS OF A WEAK
BUT HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION...WITH UPPER IMPULSES RIDING UP THE FRONT SIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. THE NAM PERSISTS AS THE WESTERN OUTLIER WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE MODELS ARE FARTHER EAST WITH THESE IMPULSES.
MODEL CONSENSUS MAINTAINS THE MAIN BAND OF ORGANIZED RAINS WILL BE
FROM THE MOUNTAINS EASTWARD. THIS COINCIDES WELL WITH THE
INHERITED FORECAST. SO WE MAINTAIN HIGH POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD
IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOWER AND MORE DIURNAL POPS WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH ITSELF. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WARMER...THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH RATHER HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL STILL ACTUALLY KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE
WIDESPREAD. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES FROM THE 70S EAST TO THE LOWER
80S WEST. THINK THUNDER CHANCES IN THIS REGIME WILL BE OF A CHANCE
OR SCATTERED NATURE. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE ANY POTENTIAL WATER
PROBLEMS WOULD BE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THINGS SHOULD START
IMPROVING LATER SUNDAY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST AND ALLOW A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CREATE A
PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER EARLIER NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...WARMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT IN ADVANCE OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. POPS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
EXTENDED...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
GRADUALLY SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MORNING RIVER FOG BURNS OFF TO SCATTERED CU FIELD THIS MORNING.
WEAK GRADIENTS LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY FORM
INVOF OF KEKN THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS...
OTHERWISE REMAINING PERIOD WILL GENERALLY SEE VFR CONDITIONS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF MORNING FOG. POSSIBILITY
OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS INVOF KEKN THIS AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    THU 07/31/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...KMC/TRM
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KMC






000
FXUS61 KRLX 311437
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1037 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL...DRY AIRMASS HANGS ON THROUGH TODAY. HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY BEGINNING FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK SAVE FOR REMOVAL OF SCHC POPS NORTH CENTRAL WV LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCN...
5H TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH PRIMARY AXIS LIFTING
NORTHWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS LEADING TO SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND. MEANWHILE...A
SOUTHERN STREAM FEATURE WILL MAKE APPROACH TO SOUTHERN
COALFIELDS...AND SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA BY TONIGHT. NOTED A
WEAK S/W WORKING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN OH KICKING OFF A FEW
SPRINKLES EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS HINT THAT
THIS FEATURE MAY BECOME MORE ACTIVE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
INTRODUCED A MENTION OF SOME LATE MORNING MID AFTERNOON SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS AS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
MAY BE AROUND TO HAVE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. RELIED ON BIAS
CORRECTED VALUES FOR TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
REALLY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS MODELS MAINTAIN
GOOD CONTINUITY IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THIS CONSISTS OF A WEAK
BUT HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION...WITH UPPER IMPULSES RIDING UP THE FRONT SIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. THE NAM PERSISTS AS THE WESTERN OUTLIER WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE MODELS ARE FARTHER EAST WITH THESE IMPULSES.
MODEL CONSENSUS MAINTAINS THE MAIN BAND OF ORGANIZED RAINS WILL BE
FROM THE MOUNTAINS EASTWARD. THIS COINCIDES WELL WITH THE
INHERITED FORECAST. SO WE MAINTAIN HIGH POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD
IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOWER AND MORE DIURNAL POPS WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH ITSELF. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WARMER...THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH RATHER HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL STILL ACTUALLY KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE
WIDESPREAD. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES FROM THE 70S EAST TO THE LOWER
80S WEST. THINK THUNDER CHANCES IN THIS REGIME WILL BE OF A CHANCE
OR SCATTERED NATURE. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE ANY POTENTIAL WATER
PROBLEMS WOULD BE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THINGS SHOULD START
IMPROVING LATER SUNDAY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST AND ALLOW A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CREATE A
PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER EARLIER NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...WARMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT IN ADVANCE OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. POPS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
EXTENDED...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
GRADUALLY SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MORNING RIVER FOG BURNS OFF TO SCATTERED CU FIELD THIS MORNING.
WEAK GRADIENTS LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY FORM
INVOF OF KEKN THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS...
OTHERWISE REMAINING PERIOD WILL GENERALLY SEE VFR CONDITIONS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF MORNING FOG. POSSIBILITY
OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS INVOF KEKN THIS AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    THU 07/31/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...KMC/TRM
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KMC







000
FXUS61 KRLX 311012
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
612 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL...DRY AIRMASS HANGS ON THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHER TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY BEGINNING FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
5H TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH PRIMARY AXIS LIFTING
NORTHWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS LEADING TO SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND. MEANWHILE...A
SOUTHERN STREAM FEATURE WILL MAKE APPROACH TO SOUTHERN
COALFIELDS...AND SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA BY TONIGHT. NOTED A
WEAK S/W WORKING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN OH KICKING OFF A FEW
SPRINKLES EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS HINT THAT
THIS FEATURE MAY BECOME MORE ACTIVE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
INTRODUCED A MENTION OF SOME LATE MORNING MID AFTERNOON SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS AS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
MAY BE AROUND TO HAVE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. RELIED ON BIAS
CORRECTED VALUES FOR TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
REALLY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS MODELS MAINTAIN
GOOD CONTINUITY IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THIS CONSISTS OF A WEAK
BUT HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION...WITH UPPER IMPULSES RIDING UP THE FRONT SIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. THE NAM PERSISTS AS THE WESTERN OUTLIER WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE MODELS ARE FARTHER EAST WITH THESE IMPULSES.
MODEL CONSENSUS MAINTAINS THE MAIN BAND OF ORGANIZED RAINS WILL BE
FROM THE MOUNTAINS EASTWARD. THIS COINCIDES WELL WITH THE
INHERITED FORECAST. SO WE MAINTAIN HIGH POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD
IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOWER AND MORE DIURNAL POPS WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH ITSELF. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WARMER...THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH RATHER HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL STILL ACTUALLY KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE
WIDESPREAD. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES FROM THE 70S EAST TO THE LOWER
80S WEST. THINK THUNDER CHANCES IN THIS REGIME WILL BE OF A CHANCE
OR SCATTERED NATURE. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE ANY POTENTIAL WATER
PROBLEMS WOULD BE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THINGS SHOULD START
IMPROVING LATER SUNDAY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST AND ALLOW A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CREATE A
PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER EARLIER NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...WARMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT IN ADVANCE OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. POPS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
EXTENDED...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
GRADUALLY SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MORNING RIVER FOG BURNS OFF TO SCATTERED CU FIELD THIS MORNING.
WEAK GRADIENTS LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY FORM
INVOF OF KEKN THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS...
OTHERWISE REMAINING PERIOD WILL GENERALLY SEE VFR CONDITIONS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF MORNING FOG. POSSIBILITY
OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS INVOF KEKN THIS AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    THU 07/31/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KMC









000
FXUS61 KRLX 311012
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
612 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL...DRY AIRMASS HANGS ON THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHER TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY BEGINNING FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
5H TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH PRIMARY AXIS LIFTING
NORTHWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS LEADING TO SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND. MEANWHILE...A
SOUTHERN STREAM FEATURE WILL MAKE APPROACH TO SOUTHERN
COALFIELDS...AND SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA BY TONIGHT. NOTED A
WEAK S/W WORKING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN OH KICKING OFF A FEW
SPRINKLES EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS HINT THAT
THIS FEATURE MAY BECOME MORE ACTIVE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
INTRODUCED A MENTION OF SOME LATE MORNING MID AFTERNOON SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS AS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
MAY BE AROUND TO HAVE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. RELIED ON BIAS
CORRECTED VALUES FOR TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
REALLY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS MODELS MAINTAIN
GOOD CONTINUITY IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THIS CONSISTS OF A WEAK
BUT HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION...WITH UPPER IMPULSES RIDING UP THE FRONT SIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. THE NAM PERSISTS AS THE WESTERN OUTLIER WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE MODELS ARE FARTHER EAST WITH THESE IMPULSES.
MODEL CONSENSUS MAINTAINS THE MAIN BAND OF ORGANIZED RAINS WILL BE
FROM THE MOUNTAINS EASTWARD. THIS COINCIDES WELL WITH THE
INHERITED FORECAST. SO WE MAINTAIN HIGH POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD
IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOWER AND MORE DIURNAL POPS WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH ITSELF. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WARMER...THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH RATHER HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL STILL ACTUALLY KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE
WIDESPREAD. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES FROM THE 70S EAST TO THE LOWER
80S WEST. THINK THUNDER CHANCES IN THIS REGIME WILL BE OF A CHANCE
OR SCATTERED NATURE. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE ANY POTENTIAL WATER
PROBLEMS WOULD BE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THINGS SHOULD START
IMPROVING LATER SUNDAY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST AND ALLOW A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CREATE A
PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER EARLIER NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...WARMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT IN ADVANCE OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. POPS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
EXTENDED...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
GRADUALLY SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MORNING RIVER FOG BURNS OFF TO SCATTERED CU FIELD THIS MORNING.
WEAK GRADIENTS LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY FORM
INVOF OF KEKN THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS...
OTHERWISE REMAINING PERIOD WILL GENERALLY SEE VFR CONDITIONS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF MORNING FOG. POSSIBILITY
OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS INVOF KEKN THIS AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    THU 07/31/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KMC








000
FXUS61 KRLX 310715
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
315 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL...DRY AIRMASS HANGS ON THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHER TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY BEGINNING FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
5H TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH PRIMARY AXIS LIFTING
NORTHWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS LEADING TO SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND. MEANWHILE...A
SOUTHERN STREAM FEATURE WILL MAKE APPROACH TO SOUTHERN
COALFIELDS...AND SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA BY TONIGHT. NOTED A
WEAK S/W WORKING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN OH KICKING OFF A FEW
SPRINKLES EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS HINT THAT
THIS FEATURE MAY BECOME MORE ACTIVE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
INTRODUCED A MENTION OF SOME LATE MORNING MID AFTERNOON SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS AS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
MAY BE AROUND TO HAVE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. RELIED ON BIAS
CORRECTED VALUES FOR TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
REALLY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS MODELS MAINTAIN
GOOD CONTINUITY IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THIS CONSISTS OF A WEAK
BUT HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION...WITH UPPER IMPULSES RIDING UP THE FRONT SIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. THE NAM PERSISTS AS THE WESTERN OUTLIER WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE MODELS ARE FARTHER EAST WITH THESE IMPULSES.
MODEL CONSENSUS MAINTAINS THE MAIN BAND OF ORGANIZED RAINS WILL BE
FROM THE MOUNTAINS EASTWARD. THIS COINCIDES WELL WITH THE
INHERITED FORECAST. SO WE MAINTAIN HIGH POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD
IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOWER AND MORE DIURNAL POPS WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH ITSELF. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WARMER...THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH RATHER HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL STILL ACTUALLY KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE
WIDESPREAD. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES FROM THE 70S EAST TO THE LOWER
80S WEST. THINK THUNDER CHANCES IN THIS REGIME WILL BE OF A CHANCE
OR SCATTERED NATURE. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE ANY POTENTIAL WATER
PROBLEMS WOULD BE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THINGS SHOULD START
IMPROVING LATER SUNDAY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST AND ALLOW A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CREATE A
PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER EARLIER NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...WARMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT IN ADVANCE OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. POPS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
EXTENDED...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
GRADUALLY SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL WV SLOWLY DISSIPATING. EXPECT FAIR
AMOUNT OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...EVEN
AT LOWLAND LOCATIONS...SINCE THEY HAVE ALL RECEIVED SOME RAINFALL
THE PAST 24 HOURS AND THE BL REMAINS MOIST. FG SHOULD LIFT TO LOW
STRATUS AND CU FIELD TODAY. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY ALSO FORM INVOF
OF KEKN THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS...OTHERWISE
REMAINING PERIOD WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF MORNING FOG. POSSIBILITY
OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS INVOF KEKN THIS AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              THU 07/31/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KMC








000
FXUS61 KRLX 310715
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
315 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL...DRY AIRMASS HANGS ON THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHER TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY BEGINNING FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
5H TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH PRIMARY AXIS LIFTING
NORTHWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS LEADING TO SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND. MEANWHILE...A
SOUTHERN STREAM FEATURE WILL MAKE APPROACH TO SOUTHERN
COALFIELDS...AND SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA BY TONIGHT. NOTED A
WEAK S/W WORKING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN OH KICKING OFF A FEW
SPRINKLES EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS HINT THAT
THIS FEATURE MAY BECOME MORE ACTIVE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
INTRODUCED A MENTION OF SOME LATE MORNING MID AFTERNOON SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS AS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
MAY BE AROUND TO HAVE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. RELIED ON BIAS
CORRECTED VALUES FOR TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
REALLY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS MODELS MAINTAIN
GOOD CONTINUITY IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THIS CONSISTS OF A WEAK
BUT HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION...WITH UPPER IMPULSES RIDING UP THE FRONT SIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. THE NAM PERSISTS AS THE WESTERN OUTLIER WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE MODELS ARE FARTHER EAST WITH THESE IMPULSES.
MODEL CONSENSUS MAINTAINS THE MAIN BAND OF ORGANIZED RAINS WILL BE
FROM THE MOUNTAINS EASTWARD. THIS COINCIDES WELL WITH THE
INHERITED FORECAST. SO WE MAINTAIN HIGH POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD
IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOWER AND MORE DIURNAL POPS WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH ITSELF. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WARMER...THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH RATHER HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL STILL ACTUALLY KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE
WIDESPREAD. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES FROM THE 70S EAST TO THE LOWER
80S WEST. THINK THUNDER CHANCES IN THIS REGIME WILL BE OF A CHANCE
OR SCATTERED NATURE. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE ANY POTENTIAL WATER
PROBLEMS WOULD BE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THINGS SHOULD START
IMPROVING LATER SUNDAY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST AND ALLOW A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CREATE A
PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER EARLIER NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...WARMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT IN ADVANCE OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. POPS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
EXTENDED...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
GRADUALLY SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL WV SLOWLY DISSIPATING. EXPECT FAIR
AMOUNT OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...EVEN
AT LOWLAND LOCATIONS...SINCE THEY HAVE ALL RECEIVED SOME RAINFALL
THE PAST 24 HOURS AND THE BL REMAINS MOIST. FG SHOULD LIFT TO LOW
STRATUS AND CU FIELD TODAY. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY ALSO FORM INVOF
OF KEKN THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS...OTHERWISE
REMAINING PERIOD WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF MORNING FOG. POSSIBILITY
OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS INVOF KEKN THIS AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              THU 07/31/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KMC









000
FXUS61 KRLX 310533
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
133 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL...DRY AIRMASS HANGS ON THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHER TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY BEGINNING FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
ALL THUNDER HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA...BUT LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE I64 CORRIDOR
SOUTHWARD INTO THE COALFIELDS. IN FACT...SEEING SOME FURTHER
REGENERATION ALONG A VERY DIFFUSE SFC COLD FRONT BOUNDARY WHICH
EXTENDS NORTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN OH INTO INDIANA. NEW CELLS GOING
UP ACROSS NW AND CENTRAL OHIO...JUST WEST OF CMH AT THIS
TIME...APPARENTLY OUT AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX. STILL
EXPECTING PRECIP TO GRADUALLY END BUT HAVE EXTENDED SLIGHT/LOW
CHANCE POPS PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND NORTHWEST
ZONES THROUGH 06Z. ACTIVITY WEST OF CMH WILL BRUSH THE NW ZONES
SHOULD IT HOLD TOGETHER...THOUGH THAT ACTIVITY WILL BE RUNNING
INTO FAR LESS SFC INSTABILITY THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY BEING
REALIZED FURTHER WEST OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN OHIO. ALSO ADJUSTED
CORRESPONDING SKY COVER. STILL EXPECT A GENERAL CLEARING OUT LATE
IN THE OVERNIGHT AND NEAR-DAWN HOURS...SAVE ANY VERY LOW STRATUS
WHICH MAY FORM IN THE POST-RAIN ENVIRONMENT.

730 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK...HAVE TIGHTENED UP THE POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. CURRENT BAND OF PRECIP RUNNING ROUGHLY
FROM CKB TO CRW TO HTS. THE NORTHERN PART OF THE BAND IS
CONTINUING EASTWARD...WITH THE SOUTHERN PART TRAINING JUST A BIT
ALONG A CONVERGENT AREA FROM CRW W/NW-WARD TOWARDS THE CINCINNATI
AREA. MEANWHILE...S/W VORT MAX CURRENTLY ENTERING THE NW ZONES.
MAY NEED TO FINE TUNE POPS JUST A BIT WITH THE NEXT UPDATE BUT
STILL EXPECTING AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH VORT MAX CONTINUING TO RAPIDLY TO THE EAST AND THE CONVERGENT
AREA FURTHER SOUTH PROGGED TO WEAKEN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING IN CENTRAL OHIO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH THERE...WILL
MOVE ESEWD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. NAM12
HAS SUPPORT FROM NEAR TERM MODELS AND UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT ON THIS
IDEA SO HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY IN A NARROW BAND MOVING
ACROSS.

THE WEATHER SETTLES DOWN WITH LESS CLOUD AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LATER TONIGHT AND THU SAVE FOR THE POST-RAIN EFFECTS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. IT AND THE CLEAR...CALM CONDITIONS THAT WILL ENSUE BEHIND
THE AXIS OF CONVECTION SHOULD ALLOW DENSE VALLEY FOG TO FORM
ESPECIALLY AS WE ARE NEARING IF NOT ENTERING FOG SEASON. A NICE
DAY IS ON TAP FOR THU ONCE THE MORNING FOG IS GONE.

A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MAY BRING CONVECTION INTO SW
VA AS THU DRAWS TO A CLOSE THOUGH.

TEMPERATURES LOOKED CLOSE TO LATEST BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE ON LOWS
TONIGHT AND STRAIGHT UP GUIDANCE ON HIGHS THU...AS H85 VALUES
CLIMBING UP TO 14C SUPPORT AT LEAST LOWER 80S LOWLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY...WITH A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA...AND A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN THE HUMIDITY LEVELS...PARTICULARLY FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. DEW POINTS WILL ONCE AGAIN PUSH BACK UP INTO THE 60S AREA
WIDE. IN ADDITION TO THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AIDING IN INCREASED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE OUTLIER...INDICATING A MORE WESTERLY
TRACK WITH THE DISTURBANCE...AND THUS HIGHER POPS ACROSS WESTERN
ZONES. CONTINUED TO FOLLOW TREND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND KEEP
HIGHER POPS MOUNTAINS...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS...PARTICULARLY DURING AFTERNOON/HEATING HOURS.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND ON
SUNDAY...AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...BUT SHOULD STILL REMAIN NEAR TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CREATE A
PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER EARLIER NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...WARMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT IN ADVANCE OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. POPS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
EXTENDED...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY
SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL WV SLOWLY DISSIPATING. EXPECT FAIR
AMOUNT OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...EVEN
AT LOWLAND LOCATIONS...SINCE THEY HAVE ALL RECEIVED SOME RAINFALL
THE PAST 24 HOURS AND THE BL REMAINS MOIST. FG SHOULD LIFT TO LOW
STRATUS AND CU FIELD TODAY. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY ALSO FORM INVOF
OF KEKN THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS...OTHERWISE
REMAINING PERIOD WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF MORNING FOG. POSSIBILITY
OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS INVOF KEKN THIS AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              THU 07/31/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/50
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KMC






000
FXUS61 KRLX 310244
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1044 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL...DRY AIRMASS HANGS ON THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHER TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY BEGINNING FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
ALL THUNDER HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA...BUT LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE I64 CORRIDOR
SOUTHWARD INTO THE COALFIELDS. IN FACT...SEEING SOME FURTHER
REGENERATION ALONG A VERY DIFFUSE SFC COLD FRONT BOUNDARY WHICH
EXTENDS NORTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN OH INTO INDIANA. NEW CELLS GOING
UP ACROSS NW AND CENTRAL OHIO...JUST WEST OF CMH AT THIS
TIME...APPARENTLY OUT AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX. STILL
EXPECTING PRECIP TO GRADUALLY END BUT HAVE EXTENDED SLIGHT/LOW
CHANCE POPS PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND NORTHWEST
ZONES THROUGH 06Z. ACTIVITY WEST OF CMH WILL BRUSH THE NW ZONES
SHOULD IT HOLD TOGETHER...THOUGH THAT ACTIVITY WILL BE RUNNING
INTO FAR LESS SFC INSTABILITY THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY BEING
REALIZED FURTHER WEST OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN OHIO. ALSO ADJUSTED
CORRESPONDING SKY COVER. STILL EXPECT A GENERAL CLEARING OUT LATE
IN THE OVERNIGHT AND NEAR-DAWN HOURS...SAVE ANY VERY LOW STRATUS
WHICH MAY FORM IN THE POST-RAIN ENVIRONMENT.

730 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK...HAVE TIGHTENED UP THE POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. CURRENT BAND OF PRECIP RUNNING ROUGHLY
FROM CKB TO CRW TO HTS. THE NORTHERN PART OF THE BAND IS
CONTINUING EASTWARD...WITH THE SOUTHERN PART TRAINING JUST A BIT
ALONG A CONVERGENT AREA FROM CRW W/NW-WARD TOWARDS THE CINCINNATI
AREA. MEANWHILE...S/W VORT MAX CURRENTLY ENTERING THE NW ZONES.
MAY NEED TO FINE TUNE POPS JUST A BIT WITH THE NEXT UPDATE BUT
STILL EXPECTING AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH VORT MAX CONTINUING TO RAPIDLY TO THE EAST AND THE CONVERGENT
AREA FURTHER SOUTH PROGGED TO WEAKEN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING IN CENTRAL OHIO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH THERE...WILL
MOVE ESEWD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. NAM12
HAS SUPPORT FROM NEAR TERM MODELS AND UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT ON THIS
IDEA SO HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY IN A NARROW BAND MOVING
ACROSS.

THE WEATHER SETTLES DOWN WITH LESS CLOUD AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LATER TONIGHT AND THU SAVE FOR THE POST-RAIN EFFECTS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. IT AND THE CLEAR...CALM CONDITIONS THAT WILL ENSUE BEHIND
THE AXIS OF CONVECTION SHOULD ALLOW DENSE VALLEY FOG TO FORM
ESPECIALLY AS WE ARE NEARING IF NOT ENTERING FOG SEASON. A NICE
DAY IS ON TAP FOR THU ONCE THE MORNING FOG IS GONE.

A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MAY BRING CONVECTION INTO SW
VA AS THU DRAWS TO A CLOSE THOUGH.

TEMPERATURES LOOKED CLOSE TO LATEST BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE ON LOWS
TONIGHT AND STRAIGHT UP GUIDANCE ON HIGHS THU...AS H85 VALUES
CLIMBING UP TO 14C SUPPORT AT LEAST LOWER 80S LOWLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY...WITH A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA...AND A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN THE HUMIDITY LEVELS...PARTICULARLY FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. DEW POINTS WILL ONCE AGAIN PUSH BACK UP INTO THE 60S AREA
WIDE. IN ADDITION TO THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AIDING IN INCREASED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE OUTLIER...INDICATING A MORE WESTERLY
TRACK WITH THE DISTURBANCE...AND THUS HIGHER POPS ACROSS WESTERN
ZONES. CONTINUED TO FOLLOW TREND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND KEEP
HIGHER POPS MOUNTAINS...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS...PARTICULARLY DURING AFTERNOON/HEATING HOURS.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND ON
SUNDAY...AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...BUT SHOULD STILL REMAIN NEAR TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CREATE A
PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER EARLIER NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...WARMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT IN ADVANCE OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. POPS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
EXTENDED...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY
SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM NEAR
CKB SOUTHWESTWARD TO CRW...THEN WEST TO NEAR HTS. SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO MAY RESULT IN BRIEF
MVFR/IFR VIS...BUT THESE SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS.

CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW DENSE VALLEY FOG TO
FORM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. HIT THE FOG POTENTIAL MUCH HARDER AT THE
LOWLAND TERMINALS WITH THOSE LOCATIONS SEEING RAIN...AND AS A RESULT
ARE ALREADY AT ABOUT A 2-4 DEW POINT DEPRESSION.

ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF THU MORNING...IT MAY BRIEFLY LIFT INTO A
LOW STRATUS DECK...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO SCATTER FAIRLY QUICKLY
WITH VFR PREVAILING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY THU MORNING MAY VARY FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  THU 07/31/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    M    H    M    H

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/50
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...50








000
FXUS61 KRLX 310244
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1044 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL...DRY AIRMASS HANGS ON THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHER TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY BEGINNING FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
ALL THUNDER HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA...BUT LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE I64 CORRIDOR
SOUTHWARD INTO THE COALFIELDS. IN FACT...SEEING SOME FURTHER
REGENERATION ALONG A VERY DIFFUSE SFC COLD FRONT BOUNDARY WHICH
EXTENDS NORTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN OH INTO INDIANA. NEW CELLS GOING
UP ACROSS NW AND CENTRAL OHIO...JUST WEST OF CMH AT THIS
TIME...APPARENTLY OUT AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX. STILL
EXPECTING PRECIP TO GRADUALLY END BUT HAVE EXTENDED SLIGHT/LOW
CHANCE POPS PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND NORTHWEST
ZONES THROUGH 06Z. ACTIVITY WEST OF CMH WILL BRUSH THE NW ZONES
SHOULD IT HOLD TOGETHER...THOUGH THAT ACTIVITY WILL BE RUNNING
INTO FAR LESS SFC INSTABILITY THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY BEING
REALIZED FURTHER WEST OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN OHIO. ALSO ADJUSTED
CORRESPONDING SKY COVER. STILL EXPECT A GENERAL CLEARING OUT LATE
IN THE OVERNIGHT AND NEAR-DAWN HOURS...SAVE ANY VERY LOW STRATUS
WHICH MAY FORM IN THE POST-RAIN ENVIRONMENT.

730 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK...HAVE TIGHTENED UP THE POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. CURRENT BAND OF PRECIP RUNNING ROUGHLY
FROM CKB TO CRW TO HTS. THE NORTHERN PART OF THE BAND IS
CONTINUING EASTWARD...WITH THE SOUTHERN PART TRAINING JUST A BIT
ALONG A CONVERGENT AREA FROM CRW W/NW-WARD TOWARDS THE CINCINNATI
AREA. MEANWHILE...S/W VORT MAX CURRENTLY ENTERING THE NW ZONES.
MAY NEED TO FINE TUNE POPS JUST A BIT WITH THE NEXT UPDATE BUT
STILL EXPECTING AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH VORT MAX CONTINUING TO RAPIDLY TO THE EAST AND THE CONVERGENT
AREA FURTHER SOUTH PROGGED TO WEAKEN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING IN CENTRAL OHIO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH THERE...WILL
MOVE ESEWD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. NAM12
HAS SUPPORT FROM NEAR TERM MODELS AND UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT ON THIS
IDEA SO HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY IN A NARROW BAND MOVING
ACROSS.

THE WEATHER SETTLES DOWN WITH LESS CLOUD AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LATER TONIGHT AND THU SAVE FOR THE POST-RAIN EFFECTS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. IT AND THE CLEAR...CALM CONDITIONS THAT WILL ENSUE BEHIND
THE AXIS OF CONVECTION SHOULD ALLOW DENSE VALLEY FOG TO FORM
ESPECIALLY AS WE ARE NEARING IF NOT ENTERING FOG SEASON. A NICE
DAY IS ON TAP FOR THU ONCE THE MORNING FOG IS GONE.

A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MAY BRING CONVECTION INTO SW
VA AS THU DRAWS TO A CLOSE THOUGH.

TEMPERATURES LOOKED CLOSE TO LATEST BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE ON LOWS
TONIGHT AND STRAIGHT UP GUIDANCE ON HIGHS THU...AS H85 VALUES
CLIMBING UP TO 14C SUPPORT AT LEAST LOWER 80S LOWLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY...WITH A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA...AND A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN THE HUMIDITY LEVELS...PARTICULARLY FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. DEW POINTS WILL ONCE AGAIN PUSH BACK UP INTO THE 60S AREA
WIDE. IN ADDITION TO THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AIDING IN INCREASED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE OUTLIER...INDICATING A MORE WESTERLY
TRACK WITH THE DISTURBANCE...AND THUS HIGHER POPS ACROSS WESTERN
ZONES. CONTINUED TO FOLLOW TREND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND KEEP
HIGHER POPS MOUNTAINS...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS...PARTICULARLY DURING AFTERNOON/HEATING HOURS.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND ON
SUNDAY...AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...BUT SHOULD STILL REMAIN NEAR TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CREATE A
PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER EARLIER NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...WARMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT IN ADVANCE OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. POPS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
EXTENDED...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY
SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM NEAR
CKB SOUTHWESTWARD TO CRW...THEN WEST TO NEAR HTS. SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO MAY RESULT IN BRIEF
MVFR/IFR VIS...BUT THESE SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS.

CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW DENSE VALLEY FOG TO
FORM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. HIT THE FOG POTENTIAL MUCH HARDER AT THE
LOWLAND TERMINALS WITH THOSE LOCATIONS SEEING RAIN...AND AS A RESULT
ARE ALREADY AT ABOUT A 2-4 DEW POINT DEPRESSION.

ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF THU MORNING...IT MAY BRIEFLY LIFT INTO A
LOW STRATUS DECK...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO SCATTER FAIRLY QUICKLY
WITH VFR PREVAILING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY THU MORNING MAY VARY FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  THU 07/31/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    M    H    M    H

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/50
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...50








000
FXUS61 KRLX 310244
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1044 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL...DRY AIRMASS HANGS ON THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHER TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY BEGINNING FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
ALL THUNDER HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA...BUT LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE I64 CORRIDOR
SOUTHWARD INTO THE COALFIELDS. IN FACT...SEEING SOME FURTHER
REGENERATION ALONG A VERY DIFFUSE SFC COLD FRONT BOUNDARY WHICH
EXTENDS NORTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN OH INTO INDIANA. NEW CELLS GOING
UP ACROSS NW AND CENTRAL OHIO...JUST WEST OF CMH AT THIS
TIME...APPARENTLY OUT AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX. STILL
EXPECTING PRECIP TO GRADUALLY END BUT HAVE EXTENDED SLIGHT/LOW
CHANCE POPS PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND NORTHWEST
ZONES THROUGH 06Z. ACTIVITY WEST OF CMH WILL BRUSH THE NW ZONES
SHOULD IT HOLD TOGETHER...THOUGH THAT ACTIVITY WILL BE RUNNING
INTO FAR LESS SFC INSTABILITY THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY BEING
REALIZED FURTHER WEST OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN OHIO. ALSO ADJUSTED
CORRESPONDING SKY COVER. STILL EXPECT A GENERAL CLEARING OUT LATE
IN THE OVERNIGHT AND NEAR-DAWN HOURS...SAVE ANY VERY LOW STRATUS
WHICH MAY FORM IN THE POST-RAIN ENVIRONMENT.

730 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK...HAVE TIGHTENED UP THE POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. CURRENT BAND OF PRECIP RUNNING ROUGHLY
FROM CKB TO CRW TO HTS. THE NORTHERN PART OF THE BAND IS
CONTINUING EASTWARD...WITH THE SOUTHERN PART TRAINING JUST A BIT
ALONG A CONVERGENT AREA FROM CRW W/NW-WARD TOWARDS THE CINCINNATI
AREA. MEANWHILE...S/W VORT MAX CURRENTLY ENTERING THE NW ZONES.
MAY NEED TO FINE TUNE POPS JUST A BIT WITH THE NEXT UPDATE BUT
STILL EXPECTING AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH VORT MAX CONTINUING TO RAPIDLY TO THE EAST AND THE CONVERGENT
AREA FURTHER SOUTH PROGGED TO WEAKEN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING IN CENTRAL OHIO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH THERE...WILL
MOVE ESEWD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. NAM12
HAS SUPPORT FROM NEAR TERM MODELS AND UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT ON THIS
IDEA SO HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY IN A NARROW BAND MOVING
ACROSS.

THE WEATHER SETTLES DOWN WITH LESS CLOUD AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LATER TONIGHT AND THU SAVE FOR THE POST-RAIN EFFECTS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. IT AND THE CLEAR...CALM CONDITIONS THAT WILL ENSUE BEHIND
THE AXIS OF CONVECTION SHOULD ALLOW DENSE VALLEY FOG TO FORM
ESPECIALLY AS WE ARE NEARING IF NOT ENTERING FOG SEASON. A NICE
DAY IS ON TAP FOR THU ONCE THE MORNING FOG IS GONE.

A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MAY BRING CONVECTION INTO SW
VA AS THU DRAWS TO A CLOSE THOUGH.

TEMPERATURES LOOKED CLOSE TO LATEST BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE ON LOWS
TONIGHT AND STRAIGHT UP GUIDANCE ON HIGHS THU...AS H85 VALUES
CLIMBING UP TO 14C SUPPORT AT LEAST LOWER 80S LOWLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY...WITH A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA...AND A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN THE HUMIDITY LEVELS...PARTICULARLY FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. DEW POINTS WILL ONCE AGAIN PUSH BACK UP INTO THE 60S AREA
WIDE. IN ADDITION TO THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AIDING IN INCREASED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE OUTLIER...INDICATING A MORE WESTERLY
TRACK WITH THE DISTURBANCE...AND THUS HIGHER POPS ACROSS WESTERN
ZONES. CONTINUED TO FOLLOW TREND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND KEEP
HIGHER POPS MOUNTAINS...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS...PARTICULARLY DURING AFTERNOON/HEATING HOURS.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND ON
SUNDAY...AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...BUT SHOULD STILL REMAIN NEAR TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CREATE A
PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER EARLIER NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...WARMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT IN ADVANCE OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. POPS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
EXTENDED...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY
SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM NEAR
CKB SOUTHWESTWARD TO CRW...THEN WEST TO NEAR HTS. SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO MAY RESULT IN BRIEF
MVFR/IFR VIS...BUT THESE SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS.

CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW DENSE VALLEY FOG TO
FORM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. HIT THE FOG POTENTIAL MUCH HARDER AT THE
LOWLAND TERMINALS WITH THOSE LOCATIONS SEEING RAIN...AND AS A RESULT
ARE ALREADY AT ABOUT A 2-4 DEW POINT DEPRESSION.

ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF THU MORNING...IT MAY BRIEFLY LIFT INTO A
LOW STRATUS DECK...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO SCATTER FAIRLY QUICKLY
WITH VFR PREVAILING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY THU MORNING MAY VARY FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  THU 07/31/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    M    H    M    H

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/50
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...50








000
FXUS61 KRLX 310244
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1044 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL...DRY AIRMASS HANGS ON THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHER TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY BEGINNING FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
ALL THUNDER HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA...BUT LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE I64 CORRIDOR
SOUTHWARD INTO THE COALFIELDS. IN FACT...SEEING SOME FURTHER
REGENERATION ALONG A VERY DIFFUSE SFC COLD FRONT BOUNDARY WHICH
EXTENDS NORTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN OH INTO INDIANA. NEW CELLS GOING
UP ACROSS NW AND CENTRAL OHIO...JUST WEST OF CMH AT THIS
TIME...APPARENTLY OUT AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX. STILL
EXPECTING PRECIP TO GRADUALLY END BUT HAVE EXTENDED SLIGHT/LOW
CHANCE POPS PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND NORTHWEST
ZONES THROUGH 06Z. ACTIVITY WEST OF CMH WILL BRUSH THE NW ZONES
SHOULD IT HOLD TOGETHER...THOUGH THAT ACTIVITY WILL BE RUNNING
INTO FAR LESS SFC INSTABILITY THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY BEING
REALIZED FURTHER WEST OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN OHIO. ALSO ADJUSTED
CORRESPONDING SKY COVER. STILL EXPECT A GENERAL CLEARING OUT LATE
IN THE OVERNIGHT AND NEAR-DAWN HOURS...SAVE ANY VERY LOW STRATUS
WHICH MAY FORM IN THE POST-RAIN ENVIRONMENT.

730 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK...HAVE TIGHTENED UP THE POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. CURRENT BAND OF PRECIP RUNNING ROUGHLY
FROM CKB TO CRW TO HTS. THE NORTHERN PART OF THE BAND IS
CONTINUING EASTWARD...WITH THE SOUTHERN PART TRAINING JUST A BIT
ALONG A CONVERGENT AREA FROM CRW W/NW-WARD TOWARDS THE CINCINNATI
AREA. MEANWHILE...S/W VORT MAX CURRENTLY ENTERING THE NW ZONES.
MAY NEED TO FINE TUNE POPS JUST A BIT WITH THE NEXT UPDATE BUT
STILL EXPECTING AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH VORT MAX CONTINUING TO RAPIDLY TO THE EAST AND THE CONVERGENT
AREA FURTHER SOUTH PROGGED TO WEAKEN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING IN CENTRAL OHIO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH THERE...WILL
MOVE ESEWD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. NAM12
HAS SUPPORT FROM NEAR TERM MODELS AND UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT ON THIS
IDEA SO HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY IN A NARROW BAND MOVING
ACROSS.

THE WEATHER SETTLES DOWN WITH LESS CLOUD AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LATER TONIGHT AND THU SAVE FOR THE POST-RAIN EFFECTS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. IT AND THE CLEAR...CALM CONDITIONS THAT WILL ENSUE BEHIND
THE AXIS OF CONVECTION SHOULD ALLOW DENSE VALLEY FOG TO FORM
ESPECIALLY AS WE ARE NEARING IF NOT ENTERING FOG SEASON. A NICE
DAY IS ON TAP FOR THU ONCE THE MORNING FOG IS GONE.

A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MAY BRING CONVECTION INTO SW
VA AS THU DRAWS TO A CLOSE THOUGH.

TEMPERATURES LOOKED CLOSE TO LATEST BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE ON LOWS
TONIGHT AND STRAIGHT UP GUIDANCE ON HIGHS THU...AS H85 VALUES
CLIMBING UP TO 14C SUPPORT AT LEAST LOWER 80S LOWLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY...WITH A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA...AND A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN THE HUMIDITY LEVELS...PARTICULARLY FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. DEW POINTS WILL ONCE AGAIN PUSH BACK UP INTO THE 60S AREA
WIDE. IN ADDITION TO THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AIDING IN INCREASED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE OUTLIER...INDICATING A MORE WESTERLY
TRACK WITH THE DISTURBANCE...AND THUS HIGHER POPS ACROSS WESTERN
ZONES. CONTINUED TO FOLLOW TREND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND KEEP
HIGHER POPS MOUNTAINS...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS...PARTICULARLY DURING AFTERNOON/HEATING HOURS.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND ON
SUNDAY...AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...BUT SHOULD STILL REMAIN NEAR TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CREATE A
PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER EARLIER NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...WARMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT IN ADVANCE OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. POPS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
EXTENDED...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY
SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM NEAR
CKB SOUTHWESTWARD TO CRW...THEN WEST TO NEAR HTS. SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO MAY RESULT IN BRIEF
MVFR/IFR VIS...BUT THESE SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS.

CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW DENSE VALLEY FOG TO
FORM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. HIT THE FOG POTENTIAL MUCH HARDER AT THE
LOWLAND TERMINALS WITH THOSE LOCATIONS SEEING RAIN...AND AS A RESULT
ARE ALREADY AT ABOUT A 2-4 DEW POINT DEPRESSION.

ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF THU MORNING...IT MAY BRIEFLY LIFT INTO A
LOW STRATUS DECK...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO SCATTER FAIRLY QUICKLY
WITH VFR PREVAILING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY THU MORNING MAY VARY FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  THU 07/31/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    M    H    M    H

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/50
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...50








000
FXUS61 KRLX 310006
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
806 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL...DRY AIRMASS HANGS ON THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHER TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY BEGINNING FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK...HAVE TIGHTENED UP THE POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. CURRENT BAND OF PRECIP RUNNING ROUGHLY
FROM CKB TO CRW TO HTS. THE NORTHERN PART OF THE BAND IS
CONTINUING EASTWARD...WITH THE SOUTHERN PART TRAINING JUST A BIT
ALONG A CONVERGENT AREA FROM CRW W/NW-WARD TOWARDS THE CINCINNATI
AREA. MEANWHILE...S/W VORT MAX CURRENTLY ENTERING THE NW ZONES.
MAY NEED TO FINE TUNE POPS JUST A BIT WITH THE NEXT UPDATE BUT
STILL EXPECTING AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH VORT MAX CONTINUING TO RAPIDLY TO THE EAST AND THE CONVERGENT
AREA FURTHER SOUTH PROGGED TO WEAKEN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING IN CENTRAL OHIO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH THERE...WILL
MOVE ESEWD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. NAM12
HAS SUPPORT FROM NEAR TERM MODELS AND UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT ON THIS
IDEA SO HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY IN A NARROW BAND MOVING
ACROSS.

THE WEATHER SETTLES DOWN WITH LESS CLOUD AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LATER TONIGHT AND THU SAVE FOR THE POST-RAIN EFFECTS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. IT AND THE CLEAR...CALM CONDITIONS THAT WILL ENSUE BEHIND
THE AXIS OF CONVECTION SHOULD ALLOW DENSE VALLEY FOG TO FORM
ESPECIALLY AS WE ARE NEARING IF NOT ENTERING FOG SEASON. A NICE
DAY IS ON TAP FOR THU ONCE THE MORNING FOG IS GONE.

A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MAY BRING CONVECTION INTO SW
VA AS THU DRAWS TO A CLOSE THOUGH.

TEMPERATURES LOOKED CLOSE TO LATEST BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE ON LOWS
TONIGHT AND STRAIGHT UP GUIDANCE ON HIGHS THU...AS H85 VALUES
CLIMBING UP TO 14C SUPPORT AT LEAST LOWER 80S LOWLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY...WITH A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA...AND A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN THE HUMIDITY LEVELS...PARTICULARLY FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. DEW POINTS WILL ONCE AGAIN PUSH BACK UP INTO THE 60S AREA
WIDE. IN ADDITION TO THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AIDING IN INCREASED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE OUTLIER...INDICATING A MORE WESTERLY
TRACK WITH THE DISTURBANCE...AND THUS HIGHER POPS ACROSS WESTERN
ZONES. CONTINUED TO FOLLOW TREND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND KEEP
HIGHER POPS MOUNTAINS...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS...PARTICULARLY DURING AFTERNOON/HEATING HOURS.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND ON
SUNDAY...AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...BUT SHOULD STILL REMAIN NEAR TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CREATE A
PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER EARLIER NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...WARMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT IN ADVANCE OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. POPS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
EXTENDED...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY
SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM NEAR
CKB SOUTHWESTWARD TO CRW...THEN WEST TO NEAR HTS. SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO MAY RESULT IN BRIEF
MVFR/IFR VIS...BUT THESE SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS.

CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW DENSE VALLEY FOG TO
FORM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. HIT THE FOG POTENTIAL MUCH HARDER AT THE
LOWLAND TERMINALS WITH THOSE LOCATIONS SEEING RAIN...AND AS A RESULT
ARE ALREADY AT ABOUT A 2-4 DEW POINT DEPRESSION.

ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF THU MORNING...IT MAY BRIEFLY LIFT INTO A
LOW STRATUS DECK...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO SCATTER FAIRLY QUICKLY
WITH VFR PREVAILING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY THU MORNING MAY VARY FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            THU 07/31/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/50
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...50








000
FXUS61 KRLX 310006
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
806 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL...DRY AIRMASS HANGS ON THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHER TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY BEGINNING FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK...HAVE TIGHTENED UP THE POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. CURRENT BAND OF PRECIP RUNNING ROUGHLY
FROM CKB TO CRW TO HTS. THE NORTHERN PART OF THE BAND IS
CONTINUING EASTWARD...WITH THE SOUTHERN PART TRAINING JUST A BIT
ALONG A CONVERGENT AREA FROM CRW W/NW-WARD TOWARDS THE CINCINNATI
AREA. MEANWHILE...S/W VORT MAX CURRENTLY ENTERING THE NW ZONES.
MAY NEED TO FINE TUNE POPS JUST A BIT WITH THE NEXT UPDATE BUT
STILL EXPECTING AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH VORT MAX CONTINUING TO RAPIDLY TO THE EAST AND THE CONVERGENT
AREA FURTHER SOUTH PROGGED TO WEAKEN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING IN CENTRAL OHIO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH THERE...WILL
MOVE ESEWD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. NAM12
HAS SUPPORT FROM NEAR TERM MODELS AND UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT ON THIS
IDEA SO HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY IN A NARROW BAND MOVING
ACROSS.

THE WEATHER SETTLES DOWN WITH LESS CLOUD AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LATER TONIGHT AND THU SAVE FOR THE POST-RAIN EFFECTS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. IT AND THE CLEAR...CALM CONDITIONS THAT WILL ENSUE BEHIND
THE AXIS OF CONVECTION SHOULD ALLOW DENSE VALLEY FOG TO FORM
ESPECIALLY AS WE ARE NEARING IF NOT ENTERING FOG SEASON. A NICE
DAY IS ON TAP FOR THU ONCE THE MORNING FOG IS GONE.

A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MAY BRING CONVECTION INTO SW
VA AS THU DRAWS TO A CLOSE THOUGH.

TEMPERATURES LOOKED CLOSE TO LATEST BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE ON LOWS
TONIGHT AND STRAIGHT UP GUIDANCE ON HIGHS THU...AS H85 VALUES
CLIMBING UP TO 14C SUPPORT AT LEAST LOWER 80S LOWLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY...WITH A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA...AND A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN THE HUMIDITY LEVELS...PARTICULARLY FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. DEW POINTS WILL ONCE AGAIN PUSH BACK UP INTO THE 60S AREA
WIDE. IN ADDITION TO THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AIDING IN INCREASED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE OUTLIER...INDICATING A MORE WESTERLY
TRACK WITH THE DISTURBANCE...AND THUS HIGHER POPS ACROSS WESTERN
ZONES. CONTINUED TO FOLLOW TREND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND KEEP
HIGHER POPS MOUNTAINS...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS...PARTICULARLY DURING AFTERNOON/HEATING HOURS.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND ON
SUNDAY...AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...BUT SHOULD STILL REMAIN NEAR TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CREATE A
PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER EARLIER NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...WARMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT IN ADVANCE OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. POPS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
EXTENDED...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY
SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM NEAR
CKB SOUTHWESTWARD TO CRW...THEN WEST TO NEAR HTS. SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO MAY RESULT IN BRIEF
MVFR/IFR VIS...BUT THESE SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS.

CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW DENSE VALLEY FOG TO
FORM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. HIT THE FOG POTENTIAL MUCH HARDER AT THE
LOWLAND TERMINALS WITH THOSE LOCATIONS SEEING RAIN...AND AS A RESULT
ARE ALREADY AT ABOUT A 2-4 DEW POINT DEPRESSION.

ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF THU MORNING...IT MAY BRIEFLY LIFT INTO A
LOW STRATUS DECK...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO SCATTER FAIRLY QUICKLY
WITH VFR PREVAILING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY THU MORNING MAY VARY FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            THU 07/31/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/50
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...50









000
FXUS61 KRLX 301849
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
249 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL...DRY AIRMASS HANGS ON THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHER TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY BEGINNING FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING IN CENTRAL OHIO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH THERE...WILL
MOVE ESEWD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  NAM12
HAS SUPPORT FROM NEAR TERM MODELS AND UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT ON THIS
IDEA SO HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY IN A NARROW BAND MOVING ACROSS.

THE WEATHER SETTLES DOWN WITH LESS CLOUD AND LOW LEVEL MOISTER LATER
TONIGHT AND THU SAVE FOR THE POST-RAIN EFFECTS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
IT AND THE CLEAR...CALM CONDITIONS THAT WILL ENSUE BEHIND THE AXIS
OF CONVECTION SHOULD ALLOW DENSE VALLEY FOG TO FORM ESPECIALLY AS WE
ARE NEARING IF NOT ENTERING FOG SEASON.  A NICE DAY IS ON TAP FOR
THU ONCE THE MORNING FOG IS GONE.

A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MAY BRING CONVECTION INTO SW
VA AS THU DRAWS TO A CLOSE THOUGH.

TEMPERATURES LOOKED CLOSE TO LATEST BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE ON LOWS
TONIGHT AND STRAIGHT UP GUIDANCE ON HIGHS THU...AS H85 VALUES
CLIMBING UP TO 14C SUPPORT AT LEAST LOWER 80S LOWLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY...WITH A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA...AND A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN THE HUMIDITY LEVELS...PARTICULARLY FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. DEW POINTS WILL ONCE AGAIN PUSH BACK UP INTO THE 60S AREA
WIDE. IN ADDITION TO THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AIDING IN INCREASED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE OUTLIER...INDICATING A MORE WESTERLY
TRACK WITH THE DISTURBANCE...AND THUS HIGHER POPS ACROSS WESTERN
ZONES. CONTINUED TO FOLLOW TREND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND KEEP
HIGHER POPS MOUNTAINS...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS...PARTICULARLY DURING AFTERNOON/HEATING HOURS.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND ON
SUNDAY...AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...BUT SHOULD STILL REMAIN NEAR TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CREATE A
PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER EARLIER NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...WARMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT IN ADVANCE OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. POPS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
EXTENDED...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY
SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY STILL LEAD TO MVFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH VFR WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING AN AXIS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  TAFS MAY
NEED AMENDED FOR THUNDER AND MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS IF IT APPEARS
A THUNDERSTORM WILL TRACK OVER AN AIRPORT.  OTHERWISE THE VCTS / CB
GROUPS DEFINE THE TIME BRACKETS FOR THE DIFFERENT AIRPORTS.

CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW DENSE VALLEY FOG TO
FORM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.  ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF THU MORNING...THE
DAY WILL FEATURE NEITHER MORNING CU NOR THUNDERSTORMS...SO VFR IS
FCST.

LIGHT SW SFC FLOW WILL BECOME W TO NW ONCE THE AXIS OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH.  A THUNDERSTORM CAN BRING GUSTS UP TO 25
KTS.  THE SFC FLOW WILL BECOME CALM TONIGHT AND THEN LIGHT W TO SW
ON THU.  FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN LIGHT W.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR STRATOCU MAY OR MAY NOT POP UP AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON.  A THUNDERSTORM COULD DIRECTLY IMPACT AN AIRPORT.  THE
TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING MAY VARY
FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM












000
FXUS61 KRLX 301849
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
249 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL...DRY AIRMASS HANGS ON THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHER TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY BEGINNING FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING IN CENTRAL OHIO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH THERE...WILL
MOVE ESEWD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  NAM12
HAS SUPPORT FROM NEAR TERM MODELS AND UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT ON THIS
IDEA SO HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY IN A NARROW BAND MOVING ACROSS.

THE WEATHER SETTLES DOWN WITH LESS CLOUD AND LOW LEVEL MOISTER LATER
TONIGHT AND THU SAVE FOR THE POST-RAIN EFFECTS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
IT AND THE CLEAR...CALM CONDITIONS THAT WILL ENSUE BEHIND THE AXIS
OF CONVECTION SHOULD ALLOW DENSE VALLEY FOG TO FORM ESPECIALLY AS WE
ARE NEARING IF NOT ENTERING FOG SEASON.  A NICE DAY IS ON TAP FOR
THU ONCE THE MORNING FOG IS GONE.

A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MAY BRING CONVECTION INTO SW
VA AS THU DRAWS TO A CLOSE THOUGH.

TEMPERATURES LOOKED CLOSE TO LATEST BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE ON LOWS
TONIGHT AND STRAIGHT UP GUIDANCE ON HIGHS THU...AS H85 VALUES
CLIMBING UP TO 14C SUPPORT AT LEAST LOWER 80S LOWLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY...WITH A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA...AND A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN THE HUMIDITY LEVELS...PARTICULARLY FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. DEW POINTS WILL ONCE AGAIN PUSH BACK UP INTO THE 60S AREA
WIDE. IN ADDITION TO THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AIDING IN INCREASED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE OUTLIER...INDICATING A MORE WESTERLY
TRACK WITH THE DISTURBANCE...AND THUS HIGHER POPS ACROSS WESTERN
ZONES. CONTINUED TO FOLLOW TREND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND KEEP
HIGHER POPS MOUNTAINS...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS...PARTICULARLY DURING AFTERNOON/HEATING HOURS.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND ON
SUNDAY...AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...BUT SHOULD STILL REMAIN NEAR TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CREATE A
PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER EARLIER NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...WARMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT IN ADVANCE OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. POPS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
EXTENDED...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY
SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY STILL LEAD TO MVFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH VFR WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING AN AXIS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  TAFS MAY
NEED AMENDED FOR THUNDER AND MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS IF IT APPEARS
A THUNDERSTORM WILL TRACK OVER AN AIRPORT.  OTHERWISE THE VCTS / CB
GROUPS DEFINE THE TIME BRACKETS FOR THE DIFFERENT AIRPORTS.

CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW DENSE VALLEY FOG TO
FORM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.  ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF THU MORNING...THE
DAY WILL FEATURE NEITHER MORNING CU NOR THUNDERSTORMS...SO VFR IS
FCST.

LIGHT SW SFC FLOW WILL BECOME W TO NW ONCE THE AXIS OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH.  A THUNDERSTORM CAN BRING GUSTS UP TO 25
KTS.  THE SFC FLOW WILL BECOME CALM TONIGHT AND THEN LIGHT W TO SW
ON THU.  FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN LIGHT W.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR STRATOCU MAY OR MAY NOT POP UP AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON.  A THUNDERSTORM COULD DIRECTLY IMPACT AN AIRPORT.  THE
TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING MAY VARY
FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM












000
FXUS61 KRLX 301849
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
249 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL...DRY AIRMASS HANGS ON THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHER TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY BEGINNING FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING IN CENTRAL OHIO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH THERE...WILL
MOVE ESEWD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  NAM12
HAS SUPPORT FROM NEAR TERM MODELS AND UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT ON THIS
IDEA SO HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY IN A NARROW BAND MOVING ACROSS.

THE WEATHER SETTLES DOWN WITH LESS CLOUD AND LOW LEVEL MOISTER LATER
TONIGHT AND THU SAVE FOR THE POST-RAIN EFFECTS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
IT AND THE CLEAR...CALM CONDITIONS THAT WILL ENSUE BEHIND THE AXIS
OF CONVECTION SHOULD ALLOW DENSE VALLEY FOG TO FORM ESPECIALLY AS WE
ARE NEARING IF NOT ENTERING FOG SEASON.  A NICE DAY IS ON TAP FOR
THU ONCE THE MORNING FOG IS GONE.

A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MAY BRING CONVECTION INTO SW
VA AS THU DRAWS TO A CLOSE THOUGH.

TEMPERATURES LOOKED CLOSE TO LATEST BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE ON LOWS
TONIGHT AND STRAIGHT UP GUIDANCE ON HIGHS THU...AS H85 VALUES
CLIMBING UP TO 14C SUPPORT AT LEAST LOWER 80S LOWLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY...WITH A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA...AND A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN THE HUMIDITY LEVELS...PARTICULARLY FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. DEW POINTS WILL ONCE AGAIN PUSH BACK UP INTO THE 60S AREA
WIDE. IN ADDITION TO THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AIDING IN INCREASED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE OUTLIER...INDICATING A MORE WESTERLY
TRACK WITH THE DISTURBANCE...AND THUS HIGHER POPS ACROSS WESTERN
ZONES. CONTINUED TO FOLLOW TREND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND KEEP
HIGHER POPS MOUNTAINS...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS...PARTICULARLY DURING AFTERNOON/HEATING HOURS.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND ON
SUNDAY...AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...BUT SHOULD STILL REMAIN NEAR TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CREATE A
PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER EARLIER NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...WARMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT IN ADVANCE OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. POPS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
EXTENDED...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY
SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY STILL LEAD TO MVFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH VFR WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING AN AXIS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  TAFS MAY
NEED AMENDED FOR THUNDER AND MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS IF IT APPEARS
A THUNDERSTORM WILL TRACK OVER AN AIRPORT.  OTHERWISE THE VCTS / CB
GROUPS DEFINE THE TIME BRACKETS FOR THE DIFFERENT AIRPORTS.

CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW DENSE VALLEY FOG TO
FORM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.  ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF THU MORNING...THE
DAY WILL FEATURE NEITHER MORNING CU NOR THUNDERSTORMS...SO VFR IS
FCST.

LIGHT SW SFC FLOW WILL BECOME W TO NW ONCE THE AXIS OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH.  A THUNDERSTORM CAN BRING GUSTS UP TO 25
KTS.  THE SFC FLOW WILL BECOME CALM TONIGHT AND THEN LIGHT W TO SW
ON THU.  FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN LIGHT W.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR STRATOCU MAY OR MAY NOT POP UP AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON.  A THUNDERSTORM COULD DIRECTLY IMPACT AN AIRPORT.  THE
TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING MAY VARY
FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM












000
FXUS61 KRLX 301849
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
249 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL...DRY AIRMASS HANGS ON THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHER TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY BEGINNING FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING IN CENTRAL OHIO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH THERE...WILL
MOVE ESEWD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  NAM12
HAS SUPPORT FROM NEAR TERM MODELS AND UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT ON THIS
IDEA SO HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY IN A NARROW BAND MOVING ACROSS.

THE WEATHER SETTLES DOWN WITH LESS CLOUD AND LOW LEVEL MOISTER LATER
TONIGHT AND THU SAVE FOR THE POST-RAIN EFFECTS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
IT AND THE CLEAR...CALM CONDITIONS THAT WILL ENSUE BEHIND THE AXIS
OF CONVECTION SHOULD ALLOW DENSE VALLEY FOG TO FORM ESPECIALLY AS WE
ARE NEARING IF NOT ENTERING FOG SEASON.  A NICE DAY IS ON TAP FOR
THU ONCE THE MORNING FOG IS GONE.

A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MAY BRING CONVECTION INTO SW
VA AS THU DRAWS TO A CLOSE THOUGH.

TEMPERATURES LOOKED CLOSE TO LATEST BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE ON LOWS
TONIGHT AND STRAIGHT UP GUIDANCE ON HIGHS THU...AS H85 VALUES
CLIMBING UP TO 14C SUPPORT AT LEAST LOWER 80S LOWLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY...WITH A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA...AND A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN THE HUMIDITY LEVELS...PARTICULARLY FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. DEW POINTS WILL ONCE AGAIN PUSH BACK UP INTO THE 60S AREA
WIDE. IN ADDITION TO THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AIDING IN INCREASED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE OUTLIER...INDICATING A MORE WESTERLY
TRACK WITH THE DISTURBANCE...AND THUS HIGHER POPS ACROSS WESTERN
ZONES. CONTINUED TO FOLLOW TREND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND KEEP
HIGHER POPS MOUNTAINS...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS...PARTICULARLY DURING AFTERNOON/HEATING HOURS.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND ON
SUNDAY...AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...BUT SHOULD STILL REMAIN NEAR TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CREATE A
PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER EARLIER NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...WARMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT IN ADVANCE OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. POPS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
EXTENDED...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY
SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY STILL LEAD TO MVFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH VFR WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING AN AXIS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  TAFS MAY
NEED AMENDED FOR THUNDER AND MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS IF IT APPEARS
A THUNDERSTORM WILL TRACK OVER AN AIRPORT.  OTHERWISE THE VCTS / CB
GROUPS DEFINE THE TIME BRACKETS FOR THE DIFFERENT AIRPORTS.

CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW DENSE VALLEY FOG TO
FORM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.  ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF THU MORNING...THE
DAY WILL FEATURE NEITHER MORNING CU NOR THUNDERSTORMS...SO VFR IS
FCST.

LIGHT SW SFC FLOW WILL BECOME W TO NW ONCE THE AXIS OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH.  A THUNDERSTORM CAN BRING GUSTS UP TO 25
KTS.  THE SFC FLOW WILL BECOME CALM TONIGHT AND THEN LIGHT W TO SW
ON THU.  FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN LIGHT W.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR STRATOCU MAY OR MAY NOT POP UP AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON.  A THUNDERSTORM COULD DIRECTLY IMPACT AN AIRPORT.  THE
TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING MAY VARY
FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM












000
FXUS61 KRLX 301832
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
232 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL...DRY AIRMASS HANGS ON THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHER TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY BEGINNING FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING IN CENTRAL OHIO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH THERE...WILL
MOVE ESEWD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  NAM12
HAS NEAR TERM MODEL SUPPORT ON THIS IDEA.  HAVE SCT COVERAGE BUT MAY
HAVE TO BUMP UP PER DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM.

THE WEATHER SETTLES DOWN WITH LESS CLOUD AND LOW LEVEL MOISTER LATER
TONIGHT AND THU SAVE FOR THE POST-RAIN EFFECTS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
IT AND THE CLEAR...CALM CONDITIONS THAT WILL ENSUE BEHIND THE AXIS
OF CONVECTION SHOULD ALLOW DENSE VALLEY FOG TO FORM ESPECIALLY AS WE
ARE NEARING IF NOT ENTERING FOG SEASON.  A NICE DAY IS ON TAP FOR
THU ONCE THE MORNING FOG IS GONE.

A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MAY BRING CONVECTION INTO SW
VA AS THU DRAWS TO A CLOSE THOUGH.

TEMPERATURES LOOKED CLOSE TO LATEST BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE ON LOWS
TONIGHT AND STRAIGHT UP GUIDANCE ON HIGHS THU...AS H85 VALUES
CLIMBING UP TO 14C SUPPORT AT LEAST LOWER 80S LOWLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY...WITH A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA...AND A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN THE HUMIDITY LEVELS...PARTICULARLY FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. DEW POINTS WILL ONCE AGAIN PUSH BACK UP INTO THE 60S AREA
WIDE. IN ADDITION TO THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AIDING IN INCREASED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE OUTLIER...INDICATING A MORE WESTERLY
TRACK WITH THE DISTURBANCE...AND THUS HIGHER POPS ACROSS WESTERN
ZONES. CONTINUED TO FOLLOW TREND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND KEEP
HIGHER POPS MOUNTAINS...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS...PARTICULARLY DURING AFTERNOON/HEATING HOURS.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND ON
SUNDAY...AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...BUT SHOULD STILL REMAIN NEAR TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CREATE A
PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER EARLIER NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...WARMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT IN ADVANCE OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. POPS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
EXTENDED...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY
SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY STILL LEAD TO MVFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH VFR WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING AN AXIS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  TAFS MAY
NEED AMENDED FOR THUNDER AND MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS IF IT APPEARS
A THUNDERSTORM WILL TRACK OVER AN AIRPORT.  OTHERWISE THE VCTS / CB
GROUPS DEFINE THE TIME BRACKETS FOR THE DIFFERENT AIRPORTS.

CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW DENSE VALLEY FOG TO
FORM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.  ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF THU MORNING...THE
DAY WILL FEATURE NEITHER MORNING CU NOR THUNDERSTORMS...SO VFR IS
FCST.

LIGHT SW SFC FLOW WILL BECOME W TO NW ONCE THE AXIS OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH.  A THUNDERSTORM CAN BRING GUSTS UP TO 25
KTS.  THE SFC FLOW WILL BECOME CALM TONIGHT AND THEN LIGHT W TO SW
ON THU.  FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN LIGHT W.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR STRATOCU MAY OR MAY NOT POP UP AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON.  A THUNDERSTORM COULD DIRECTLY IMPACT AN AIRPORT.  THE
TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING MAY VARY
FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM









000
FXUS61 KRLX 301832
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
232 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL...DRY AIRMASS HANGS ON THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHER TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY BEGINNING FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING IN CENTRAL OHIO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH THERE...WILL
MOVE ESEWD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  NAM12
HAS NEAR TERM MODEL SUPPORT ON THIS IDEA.  HAVE SCT COVERAGE BUT MAY
HAVE TO BUMP UP PER DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM.

THE WEATHER SETTLES DOWN WITH LESS CLOUD AND LOW LEVEL MOISTER LATER
TONIGHT AND THU SAVE FOR THE POST-RAIN EFFECTS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
IT AND THE CLEAR...CALM CONDITIONS THAT WILL ENSUE BEHIND THE AXIS
OF CONVECTION SHOULD ALLOW DENSE VALLEY FOG TO FORM ESPECIALLY AS WE
ARE NEARING IF NOT ENTERING FOG SEASON.  A NICE DAY IS ON TAP FOR
THU ONCE THE MORNING FOG IS GONE.

A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MAY BRING CONVECTION INTO SW
VA AS THU DRAWS TO A CLOSE THOUGH.

TEMPERATURES LOOKED CLOSE TO LATEST BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE ON LOWS
TONIGHT AND STRAIGHT UP GUIDANCE ON HIGHS THU...AS H85 VALUES
CLIMBING UP TO 14C SUPPORT AT LEAST LOWER 80S LOWLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY...WITH A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA...AND A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN THE HUMIDITY LEVELS...PARTICULARLY FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. DEW POINTS WILL ONCE AGAIN PUSH BACK UP INTO THE 60S AREA
WIDE. IN ADDITION TO THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AIDING IN INCREASED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE OUTLIER...INDICATING A MORE WESTERLY
TRACK WITH THE DISTURBANCE...AND THUS HIGHER POPS ACROSS WESTERN
ZONES. CONTINUED TO FOLLOW TREND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND KEEP
HIGHER POPS MOUNTAINS...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS...PARTICULARLY DURING AFTERNOON/HEATING HOURS.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND ON
SUNDAY...AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...BUT SHOULD STILL REMAIN NEAR TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CREATE A
PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER EARLIER NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...WARMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT IN ADVANCE OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. POPS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
EXTENDED...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY
SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY STILL LEAD TO MVFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH VFR WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING AN AXIS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  TAFS MAY
NEED AMENDED FOR THUNDER AND MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS IF IT APPEARS
A THUNDERSTORM WILL TRACK OVER AN AIRPORT.  OTHERWISE THE VCTS / CB
GROUPS DEFINE THE TIME BRACKETS FOR THE DIFFERENT AIRPORTS.

CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW DENSE VALLEY FOG TO
FORM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.  ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF THU MORNING...THE
DAY WILL FEATURE NEITHER MORNING CU NOR THUNDERSTORMS...SO VFR IS
FCST.

LIGHT SW SFC FLOW WILL BECOME W TO NW ONCE THE AXIS OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH.  A THUNDERSTORM CAN BRING GUSTS UP TO 25
KTS.  THE SFC FLOW WILL BECOME CALM TONIGHT AND THEN LIGHT W TO SW
ON THU.  FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN LIGHT W.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR STRATOCU MAY OR MAY NOT POP UP AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON.  A THUNDERSTORM COULD DIRECTLY IMPACT AN AIRPORT.  THE
TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING MAY VARY
FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM








000
FXUS61 KRLX 301820
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
219 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL...DRY AIRMASS HANGS ON THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHER TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY BEGINNING FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING IN CENTRAL OHIO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH THERE...WILL
MOVE ESEWD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  NAM12
HAS NEAR TERM MODEL SUPPORT ON THIS IDEA.  HAVE SCT COVERAGE BUT MAY
HAVE TO BUMP UP PER DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM.

THE WEATHER SETTLES DOWN WITH LESS CLOUD AND LOW LEVEL MOISTER LATER
TONIGHT AND THU SAVE FOR THE POST-RAIN EFFECTS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
IT AND THE CLEAR...CALM CONDITIONS THAT WILL ENSUE BEHIND THE AXIS
OF CONVECTION SHOULD ALLOW DENSE VALLEY FOG TO FORM ESPECIALLY AS WE
ARE NEARING IF NOT ENTERING FOG SEASON.  A NICE DAY IS ON TAP FOR
THU ONCE THE MORNING FOG IS GONE.

A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MAY BRING CONVECTION INTO SW
VA AS THU DRAWS TO A CLOSE THOUGH.

TEMPERATURES LOOKED CLOSE TO LATEST BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE ON LOWS
TONIGHT AND STRAIGHT UP GUIDANCE ON HIGHS THU...AS H85 VALUES
CLIMBING UP TO 14C SUPPORT AT LEAST LOWER 80S LOWLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON A WEAK BUT SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION...AS THE BERMUDA HIGH IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC EXPANDS WESTWARD. A DRY AND STILL RATHER MILD THURSDAY IS
EXPECTED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST BY FRIDAY...ALLOWING WARMER AND MUCH MORE HUMID AIR TO RETURN
ON SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH UPPER
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR WEST
WILL THESE DISTURBANCES...AND HENCE THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD...TRACK
AS THEY RIDE UP THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. GENERAL
CONSENSUS...WITH THE NAM A WESTERN OUTLIER...KEEPS MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION THIS PERIOD IN THE MOUNTAINS AND EAST AS AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH FORMS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. WILL HAVE HIGH POPS
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY ONWARD...WITH MUCH LOWER POPS WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL THIS
PERIOD...IN THE LOWER 80S...BECAUSE OF THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY AS A LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASED
POPS TO HIGH CHANCE/LOWER LIKELIES IN THIS TIME FRAME
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
MIDWEST...DEEPENING THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA...AND KEEPING
THE WEATHER ON THE COOL AND UNSETTLED SIDE. DRIER WEATHER WILL
FINALLY SETTLE IN TOWARDS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY STILL LEAD TO MVFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH VFR WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING AN AXIS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  TAFS MAY
NEED AMENDED FOR THUNDER AND MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS IF IT APPEARS
A THUNDERSTORM WILL TRACK OVER AN AIRPORT.  OTHERWISE THE VCTS / CB
GROUPS DEFINE THE TIME BRACKETS FOR THE DIFFERENT AIRPORTS.

CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW DENSE VALLEY FOG TO
FORM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.  ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF THU MORNING...THE
DAY WILL FEATURE NEITHER MORNING CU NOR THUNDERSTORMS...SO VFR IS
FCST.

LIGHT SW SFC FLOW WILL BECOME W TO NW ONCE THE AXIS OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH.  A THUNDERSTORM CAN BRING GUSTS UP TO 25
KTS.  THE SFC FLOW WILL BECOME CALM TONIGHT AND THEN LIGHT W TO SW
ON THU.  FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN LIGHT W.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR STRATOCU MAY OR MAY NOT POP UP AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON.  A THUNDERSTORM COULD DIRECTLY IMPACT AN AIRPORT.  THE
TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING MAY VARY
FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM






000
FXUS61 KRLX 301820
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
219 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL...DRY AIRMASS HANGS ON THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHER TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY BEGINNING FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING IN CENTRAL OHIO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH THERE...WILL
MOVE ESEWD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  NAM12
HAS NEAR TERM MODEL SUPPORT ON THIS IDEA.  HAVE SCT COVERAGE BUT MAY
HAVE TO BUMP UP PER DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM.

THE WEATHER SETTLES DOWN WITH LESS CLOUD AND LOW LEVEL MOISTER LATER
TONIGHT AND THU SAVE FOR THE POST-RAIN EFFECTS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
IT AND THE CLEAR...CALM CONDITIONS THAT WILL ENSUE BEHIND THE AXIS
OF CONVECTION SHOULD ALLOW DENSE VALLEY FOG TO FORM ESPECIALLY AS WE
ARE NEARING IF NOT ENTERING FOG SEASON.  A NICE DAY IS ON TAP FOR
THU ONCE THE MORNING FOG IS GONE.

A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MAY BRING CONVECTION INTO SW
VA AS THU DRAWS TO A CLOSE THOUGH.

TEMPERATURES LOOKED CLOSE TO LATEST BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE ON LOWS
TONIGHT AND STRAIGHT UP GUIDANCE ON HIGHS THU...AS H85 VALUES
CLIMBING UP TO 14C SUPPORT AT LEAST LOWER 80S LOWLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON A WEAK BUT SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION...AS THE BERMUDA HIGH IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC EXPANDS WESTWARD. A DRY AND STILL RATHER MILD THURSDAY IS
EXPECTED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST BY FRIDAY...ALLOWING WARMER AND MUCH MORE HUMID AIR TO RETURN
ON SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH UPPER
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR WEST
WILL THESE DISTURBANCES...AND HENCE THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD...TRACK
AS THEY RIDE UP THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. GENERAL
CONSENSUS...WITH THE NAM A WESTERN OUTLIER...KEEPS MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION THIS PERIOD IN THE MOUNTAINS AND EAST AS AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH FORMS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. WILL HAVE HIGH POPS
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY ONWARD...WITH MUCH LOWER POPS WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL THIS
PERIOD...IN THE LOWER 80S...BECAUSE OF THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY AS A LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASED
POPS TO HIGH CHANCE/LOWER LIKELIES IN THIS TIME FRAME
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
MIDWEST...DEEPENING THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA...AND KEEPING
THE WEATHER ON THE COOL AND UNSETTLED SIDE. DRIER WEATHER WILL
FINALLY SETTLE IN TOWARDS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY STILL LEAD TO MVFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH VFR WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING AN AXIS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  TAFS MAY
NEED AMENDED FOR THUNDER AND MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS IF IT APPEARS
A THUNDERSTORM WILL TRACK OVER AN AIRPORT.  OTHERWISE THE VCTS / CB
GROUPS DEFINE THE TIME BRACKETS FOR THE DIFFERENT AIRPORTS.

CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW DENSE VALLEY FOG TO
FORM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.  ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF THU MORNING...THE
DAY WILL FEATURE NEITHER MORNING CU NOR THUNDERSTORMS...SO VFR IS
FCST.

LIGHT SW SFC FLOW WILL BECOME W TO NW ONCE THE AXIS OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH.  A THUNDERSTORM CAN BRING GUSTS UP TO 25
KTS.  THE SFC FLOW WILL BECOME CALM TONIGHT AND THEN LIGHT W TO SW
ON THU.  FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN LIGHT W.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR STRATOCU MAY OR MAY NOT POP UP AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON.  A THUNDERSTORM COULD DIRECTLY IMPACT AN AIRPORT.  THE
TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING MAY VARY
FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM







000
FXUS61 KRLX 301020
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
620 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL...DRY AIRMASS HANGS ON THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHER TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY BEGINNING FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MORNING FOG SHOULD LIFT TO LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING AND BURN OFF.
5H TROUGH SAGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
LARGE SCALE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS NORTHERN OH RIVER VALLEY
TODAY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED...LOOKS TO BE JUST
ENOUGH CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE FLOW COMBINED WITH INSTABILITY TO
ALLOW SOME POPCORN VARIETY SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSHOWERS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER NRN WV AND SE OH. USED BIAS CORRECTED
VALUES FOR TEMPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS TEMP FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON A WEAK BUT SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION...AS THE BERMUDA HIGH IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC EXPANDS WESTWARD. A DRY AND STILL RATHER MILD THURSDAY IS
EXPECTED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST BY FRIDAY...ALLOWING WARMER AND MUCH MORE HUMID AIR TO RETURN
ON SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH UPPER
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR WEST
WILL THESE DISTURBANCES...AND HENCE THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD...TRACK
AS THEY RIDE UP THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. GENERAL
CONSENSUS...WITH THE NAM A WESTERN OUTLIER...KEEPS MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION THIS PERIOD IN THE MOUNTAINS AND EAST AS AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH FORMS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. WILL HAVE HIGH POPS
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY ONWARD...WITH MUCH LOWER POPS WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL THIS
PERIOD...IN THE LOWER 80S...BECAUSE OF THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY AS A LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASED
POPS TO HIGH CHANCE/LOWER LIKELIES IN THIS TIME FRAME
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
MIDWEST...DEEPENING THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA...AND KEEPING THE
WEATHER ON THE COOL AND UNSETTLED SIDE. DRIER WEATHER WILL FINALLY
SETTLE IN TOWARDS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES
OFF TO THE EAST...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MORNING CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BURN OF RAPIDLY DURING THE MORNING
HOURS AS BL MIXES OUT. NOTED SOME LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A
SPRINKLE OR TWO ALONG THE OH RIVER WHICH WAS DISSIPATING THIS
MORNING.

FURTHER TO THE NORTH...IN NW OH...MORE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
S/W TRACKING SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES COULD KICK OFF MORE SHOWERS BY
LATE MORNING...ESP OVER NRN WV LASTING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
CONVECTION SHOULD FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE SCATTERED AND NOT WELL
ORGANIZED. OTHERWISE...AFTER A FEW EARLY MORNING HOURS OF IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO RIVER FOG AND LOW STRATUS...CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE RAPIDLY TO VFR WELL BEFORE NOON.

INCLUDED REDEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST MVFR FG BY THURSDAY AFT 10Z
FOR MOST SITES...THE EXCEPTION BEING KEKN WERE IFR CONDITIONS MOST
LIKELY TO EXIST.

SURFACE GRADIENTS REMAIN WEAK FOR GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THE EXTENT OF FG MAY VARY FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KMC








000
FXUS61 KRLX 301020
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
620 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL...DRY AIRMASS HANGS ON THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHER TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY BEGINNING FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MORNING FOG SHOULD LIFT TO LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING AND BURN OFF.
5H TROUGH SAGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
LARGE SCALE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS NORTHERN OH RIVER VALLEY
TODAY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED...LOOKS TO BE JUST
ENOUGH CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE FLOW COMBINED WITH INSTABILITY TO
ALLOW SOME POPCORN VARIETY SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSHOWERS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER NRN WV AND SE OH. USED BIAS CORRECTED
VALUES FOR TEMPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS TEMP FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON A WEAK BUT SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION...AS THE BERMUDA HIGH IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC EXPANDS WESTWARD. A DRY AND STILL RATHER MILD THURSDAY IS
EXPECTED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST BY FRIDAY...ALLOWING WARMER AND MUCH MORE HUMID AIR TO RETURN
ON SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH UPPER
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR WEST
WILL THESE DISTURBANCES...AND HENCE THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD...TRACK
AS THEY RIDE UP THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. GENERAL
CONSENSUS...WITH THE NAM A WESTERN OUTLIER...KEEPS MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION THIS PERIOD IN THE MOUNTAINS AND EAST AS AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH FORMS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. WILL HAVE HIGH POPS
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY ONWARD...WITH MUCH LOWER POPS WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL THIS
PERIOD...IN THE LOWER 80S...BECAUSE OF THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY AS A LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASED
POPS TO HIGH CHANCE/LOWER LIKELIES IN THIS TIME FRAME
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
MIDWEST...DEEPENING THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA...AND KEEPING THE
WEATHER ON THE COOL AND UNSETTLED SIDE. DRIER WEATHER WILL FINALLY
SETTLE IN TOWARDS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES
OFF TO THE EAST...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MORNING CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BURN OF RAPIDLY DURING THE MORNING
HOURS AS BL MIXES OUT. NOTED SOME LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A
SPRINKLE OR TWO ALONG THE OH RIVER WHICH WAS DISSIPATING THIS
MORNING.

FURTHER TO THE NORTH...IN NW OH...MORE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
S/W TRACKING SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES COULD KICK OFF MORE SHOWERS BY
LATE MORNING...ESP OVER NRN WV LASTING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
CONVECTION SHOULD FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE SCATTERED AND NOT WELL
ORGANIZED. OTHERWISE...AFTER A FEW EARLY MORNING HOURS OF IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO RIVER FOG AND LOW STRATUS...CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE RAPIDLY TO VFR WELL BEFORE NOON.

INCLUDED REDEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST MVFR FG BY THURSDAY AFT 10Z
FOR MOST SITES...THE EXCEPTION BEING KEKN WERE IFR CONDITIONS MOST
LIKELY TO EXIST.

SURFACE GRADIENTS REMAIN WEAK FOR GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THE EXTENT OF FG MAY VARY FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KMC









000
FXUS61 KRLX 300726
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
305 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL...DRY AIRMASS HANGS ON THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHER TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY BEGINNING FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MORNING FOG SHOULD LIFT TO LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING AND BURN OFF.
5H TROUGH SAGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
LARGE SCALE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS NORTHERN OH RIVER VALLEY
TODAY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED...LOOKS TO BE JUST
ENOUGH CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE FLOW COMBINED WITH INSTABILITY TO
ALLOW SOME POPCORN VARIETY SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSHOWERS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER NRN WV AND SE OH. USED BIAS CORRECTED
VALUES FOR TEMPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS TEMP FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON A WEAK BUT SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION...AS THE BERMUDA HIGH IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC EXPANDS WESTWARD. A DRY AND STILL RATHER MILD THURSDAY IS
EXPECTED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST BY FRIDAY...ALLOWING WARMER AND MUCH MORE HUMID AIR TO RETURN
ON SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH UPPER
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR WEST
WILL THESE DISTURBANCES...AND HENCE THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD...TRACK
AS THEY RIDE UP THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. GENERAL
CONSENSUS...WITH THE NAM A WESTERN OUTLIER...KEEPS MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION THIS PERIOD IN THE MOUNTAINS AND EAST AS AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH FORMS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. WILL HAVE HIGH POPS
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY ONWARD...WITH MUCH LOWER POPS WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL THIS
PERIOD...IN THE LOWER 80S...BECAUSE OF THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY AS A LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASED
POPS TO HIGH CHANCE/LOWER LIKELIES IN THIS TIME FRAME
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
MIDWEST...DEEPENING THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA...AND KEEPING THE
WEATHER ON THE COOL AND UNSETTLED SIDE. DRIER WEATHER WILL FINALLY
SETTLE IN TOWARDS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES
OFF TO THE EAST...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES...RADIATIONAL COOLING AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ALL
CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE MORE VALLEY FG THAN LAST
NIGHT. CARRYING DENSE FOG CRW/EKN/HTS AND IFR FG KPKB WITH SITES
ALREADY APPROACHING DP CROSSOVER POINTS ALREADY. VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN AFTER 13Z WITH SCT TO BKN 4-6 THSD FT STRATOCU. SOME
INSTABILITY DRIVEN SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AS WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS MAINLY NRN WV AND SE OH.

SURFACE GRADIENTS REMAIN WEAK FOR GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THE EXTENT OF FG MAY VARY FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    WED 07/30/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KMC










000
FXUS61 KRLX 300726
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
305 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL...DRY AIRMASS HANGS ON THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHER TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY BEGINNING FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MORNING FOG SHOULD LIFT TO LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING AND BURN OFF.
5H TROUGH SAGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
LARGE SCALE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS NORTHERN OH RIVER VALLEY
TODAY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED...LOOKS TO BE JUST
ENOUGH CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE FLOW COMBINED WITH INSTABILITY TO
ALLOW SOME POPCORN VARIETY SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSHOWERS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER NRN WV AND SE OH. USED BIAS CORRECTED
VALUES FOR TEMPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS TEMP FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON A WEAK BUT SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION...AS THE BERMUDA HIGH IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC EXPANDS WESTWARD. A DRY AND STILL RATHER MILD THURSDAY IS
EXPECTED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST BY FRIDAY...ALLOWING WARMER AND MUCH MORE HUMID AIR TO RETURN
ON SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH UPPER
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR WEST
WILL THESE DISTURBANCES...AND HENCE THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD...TRACK
AS THEY RIDE UP THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. GENERAL
CONSENSUS...WITH THE NAM A WESTERN OUTLIER...KEEPS MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION THIS PERIOD IN THE MOUNTAINS AND EAST AS AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH FORMS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. WILL HAVE HIGH POPS
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY ONWARD...WITH MUCH LOWER POPS WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL THIS
PERIOD...IN THE LOWER 80S...BECAUSE OF THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY AS A LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASED
POPS TO HIGH CHANCE/LOWER LIKELIES IN THIS TIME FRAME
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
MIDWEST...DEEPENING THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA...AND KEEPING THE
WEATHER ON THE COOL AND UNSETTLED SIDE. DRIER WEATHER WILL FINALLY
SETTLE IN TOWARDS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES
OFF TO THE EAST...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES...RADIATIONAL COOLING AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ALL
CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE MORE VALLEY FG THAN LAST
NIGHT. CARRYING DENSE FOG CRW/EKN/HTS AND IFR FG KPKB WITH SITES
ALREADY APPROACHING DP CROSSOVER POINTS ALREADY. VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN AFTER 13Z WITH SCT TO BKN 4-6 THSD FT STRATOCU. SOME
INSTABILITY DRIVEN SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AS WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS MAINLY NRN WV AND SE OH.

SURFACE GRADIENTS REMAIN WEAK FOR GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THE EXTENT OF FG MAY VARY FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    WED 07/30/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KMC











000
FXUS61 KRLX 300647
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
247 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL...DRY AIRMASS HANGS ON MOST OF THE WORK WEEK...BEFORE
MODERATING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MORNING FOG SHOULD LIFT TO LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING AND BURN OFF.
5H TROUGH SAGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
LARGE SCALE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS NORTHERN OH RIVER VALLEY
TODAY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED...LOOKS TO BE JUST
ENOUGH CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE FLOW COMBINED WITH INSTABILITY TO
ALLOW SOME POPCORN VARIETY SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSHOWERS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER NRN WV AND SE OH. USED BIAS CORRECTED
VALUES FOR TEMPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS TEMP FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MILD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AS
UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN U.S...WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER CANADA. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE THE AREA
WILL KEEP A DAILY MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. FLOW WILL
TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ON FRIDAY...WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOK TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY AS A LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASED
POPS TO HIGH CHANCE/LOWER LIKELIES IN THIS TIME FRAME
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
MIDWEST...DEEPENING THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA...AND KEEPING THE
WEATHER ON THE COOL AND UNSETTLED SIDE. DRIER WEATHER WILL FINALLY
SETTLE IN TOWARDS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES
OFF TO THE EAST...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES...RADIATIONAL COOLING AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ALL
CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE MORE VALLEY FG THAN LAST
NIGHT. CARRYING DENSE FOG CRW/EKN/HTS AND IFR FG KPKB WITH SITES
ALREADY APPROACHING DP CROSSOVER POINTS ALREADY. VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN AFTER 13Z WITH SCT TO BKN 4-6 THSD FT STRATOCU. SOME
INSTABILITY DRIVEN SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AS WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS MAINLY NRN WV AND SE OH.

SURFACE GRADIENTS REMAIN WEAK FOR GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THE EXTENT OF FG MAY VARY FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              WED 07/30/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JM
NEAR TERM...KMC/30
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KMC









000
FXUS61 KRLX 300528
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
128 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL...DRY AIRMASS HANGS ON MOST OF THE WORK WEEK...BEFORE
MODERATING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
800 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST GENERALLY IN GOOD SHAPE. EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF FOG
TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS DOMINATES THIS PERIOD WITH S/W TROUGH
OVERHEAD MOVING E THIS AFTERNOON...AND ANOTHER WED AFTERNOON.

STUBBORN MORNING STRATUS FINALLY ALL BUT MIXED OUT.  SCATTERED
UNPLUGGED CONVECTION PERSISTS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN
A W-E AXIS.  WITH MOISTURE NOT THAT DEEP AND LACK OF HEATING...NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO AMOUNT TO MUCH BEFORE DISSIPATING BY SUNSET.

TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER FIGHT BETWEEN FOG AND STRATUS WITH FOG
WINNING OUT INITIALLY.  WE PROBABLY WILL BE DEALING WITH MORNING CU
AGAIN WED.  MODELS INDICATE INCREASED INSTABILITY WED AFTERNOON WITH
MORE SUNSHINE AND COOL AIR HANGING ALOFT...SO THE THUNDER CHANCE
RETURNS.

TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD IN LIGHT OF LATEST BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MILD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AS
UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN U.S...WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER CANADA. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE THE AREA
WILL KEEP A DAILY MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. FLOW WILL
TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ON FRIDAY...WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOK TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY AS A LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASED
POPS TO HIGH CHANCE/LOWER LIKELIES IN THIS TIME FRAME
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
MIDWEST...DEEPENING THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA...AND KEEPING THE
WEATHER ON THE COOL AND UNSETTLED SIDE. DRIER WEATHER WILL FINALLY
SETTLE IN TOWARDS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES
OFF TO THE EAST...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES...RADIATIONAL COOLING AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ALL
CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE MORE VALLEY FG THAN LAST
NIGHT. CARRYING DENSE FOG CRW/EKN/HTS AND IFR FG KPKB WITH SITES
ALREADY APPROACHING DP CROSSOVER POINTS ALREADY. VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN AFTER 13Z WITH SCT TO BKN 4-6 THSD FT STRATOCU. SOME
INSTABILITY DRIVEN SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AS WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS MAINLY NRN WV AND SE OH.

SURFACE GRADIENTS REMAIN WEAK FOR GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THE EXTENT OF FG MAY VARY FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              WED 07/30/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/26
NEAR TERM...TRM/30
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KMC







000
FXUS61 KRLX 292359
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
759 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL...DRY AIRMASS HANGS ON MOST OF THE WORK WEEK...BEFORE
MODERATING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
800 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST GENERALLY IN GOOD SHAPE. EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF FOG
TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS DOMINATES THIS PERIOD WITH S/W TROUGH
OVERHEAD MOVING E THIS AFTERNOON...AND ANOTHER WED AFTERNOON.

STUBBORN MORNING STRATUS FINALLY ALL BUT MIXED OUT.  SCATTERED
UNPLUGGED CONVECTION PERSISTS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN
A W-E AXIS.  WITH MOISTURE NOT THAT DEEP AND LACK OF HEATING...NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO AMOUNT TO MUCH BEFORE DISSIPATING BY SUNSET.

TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER FIGHT BETWEEN FOG AND STRATUS WITH FOG
WINNING OUT INITIALLY.  WE PROBABLY WILL BE DEALING WITH MORNING CU
AGAIN WED.  MODELS INDICATE INCREASED INSTABILITY WED AFTERNOON WITH
MORE SUNSHINE AND COOL AIR HANGING ALOFT...SO THE THUNDER CHANCE
RETURNS.

TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD IN LIGHT OF LATEST BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MILD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AS
UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN U.S...WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER CANADA. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE THE AREA
WILL KEEP A DAILY MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. FLOW WILL
TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ON FRIDAY...WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOK TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY AS A LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASED
POPS TO HIGH CHANCE/LOWER LIKELIES IN THIS TIME FRAME
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
MIDWEST...DEEPENING THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA...AND KEEPING THE
WEATHER ON THE COOL AND UNSETTLED SIDE. DRIER WEATHER WILL FINALLY
SETTLE IN TOWARDS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES
OFF TO THE EAST...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT WILL BRING MORE VALLEY FG THAN LAST NIGHT...WITH LESS IN
THE WAY OF CLOUDS. HAVE DENSE FOG CRW/EKN/HTS AND IFR FG KPKB. VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER 13Z WITH SCT TO BKN 4-6 THSD FT STRATOCU.
SOME INSTABILITY DRIVEN SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

LIGHT NW SFC FLOW WILL GO CALM TONIGHT AND THEN BECOME LIGHT W ON
WED.  LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME LIGHT W ON WED.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THE EXTENT OF FG MAY VARY FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            WED 07/30/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    L    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    L    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    L    L    L    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L    L    M    M

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/26
NEAR TERM...TRM/30
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...30








000
FXUS61 KRLX 292359
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
759 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL...DRY AIRMASS HANGS ON MOST OF THE WORK WEEK...BEFORE
MODERATING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
800 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST GENERALLY IN GOOD SHAPE. EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF FOG
TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS DOMINATES THIS PERIOD WITH S/W TROUGH
OVERHEAD MOVING E THIS AFTERNOON...AND ANOTHER WED AFTERNOON.

STUBBORN MORNING STRATUS FINALLY ALL BUT MIXED OUT.  SCATTERED
UNPLUGGED CONVECTION PERSISTS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN
A W-E AXIS.  WITH MOISTURE NOT THAT DEEP AND LACK OF HEATING...NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO AMOUNT TO MUCH BEFORE DISSIPATING BY SUNSET.

TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER FIGHT BETWEEN FOG AND STRATUS WITH FOG
WINNING OUT INITIALLY.  WE PROBABLY WILL BE DEALING WITH MORNING CU
AGAIN WED.  MODELS INDICATE INCREASED INSTABILITY WED AFTERNOON WITH
MORE SUNSHINE AND COOL AIR HANGING ALOFT...SO THE THUNDER CHANCE
RETURNS.

TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD IN LIGHT OF LATEST BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MILD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AS
UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN U.S...WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER CANADA. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE THE AREA
WILL KEEP A DAILY MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. FLOW WILL
TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ON FRIDAY...WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOK TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY AS A LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASED
POPS TO HIGH CHANCE/LOWER LIKELIES IN THIS TIME FRAME
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
MIDWEST...DEEPENING THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA...AND KEEPING THE
WEATHER ON THE COOL AND UNSETTLED SIDE. DRIER WEATHER WILL FINALLY
SETTLE IN TOWARDS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES
OFF TO THE EAST...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT WILL BRING MORE VALLEY FG THAN LAST NIGHT...WITH LESS IN
THE WAY OF CLOUDS. HAVE DENSE FOG CRW/EKN/HTS AND IFR FG KPKB. VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER 13Z WITH SCT TO BKN 4-6 THSD FT STRATOCU.
SOME INSTABILITY DRIVEN SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

LIGHT NW SFC FLOW WILL GO CALM TONIGHT AND THEN BECOME LIGHT W ON
WED.  LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME LIGHT W ON WED.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THE EXTENT OF FG MAY VARY FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            WED 07/30/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    L    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    L    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    L    L    L    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L    L    M    M

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/26
NEAR TERM...TRM/30
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...30









000
FXUS61 KRLX 291855
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
255 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL...DRY AIRMASS HANGS ON MOST OF THE WORK WEEK...BEFORE
MODERATING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS DOMINATES THIS
PERIOD WITH S/W TROUGH OVERHEAD MOVING E THIS AFTERNOON...AND
ANOTHER WED AFTERNOON.

STUBBORN MORNING STRATUS FINALLY ALL BUT MIXED OUT.  SCATTERED
UNPLUGGED CONVECTION PERSISTS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN
A W-E AXIS.  WITH MOISTURE NOT THAT DEEP AND LACK OF HEATING...NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO AMOUNT TO MUCH BEFORE DISSIPATING BY SUNSET.

TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER FIGHT BETWEEN FOG AND STRATUS WITH FOG
WINNING OUT INITIALLY.  WE PROBABLY WILL BE DEALING WITH MORNING CU
AGAIN WED.  MODELS INDICATE INCREASED INSTABILITY WED AFTERNOON WITH
MORE SUNSHINE AND COOL AIR HANGING ALOFT...SO THE THUNDER CHANCE
RETURNS.

TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD IN LIGHT OF LATEST BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... MILD
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AS UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN U.S...WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
CANADA. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE THE AREA WILL
KEEP A DAILY MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. FLOW WILL TURN
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ON FRIDAY...WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOK TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY AS A LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASED
POPS TO HIGH CHANCE/LOWER LIKELIES IN THIS TIME FRAME
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
MIDWEST...DEEPENING THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA...AND KEEPING THE
WEATHER ON THE COOL AND UNSETTLED SIDE. DRIER WEATHER WILL FINALLY
SETTLE IN TOWARDS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES
OFF TO THE EAST...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR STRATUS / MORNING CU HAS MIXED OUT ALL BUT THE HTS AREA AND
THAT SHOULD HAPPEN THERE BY 21Z.  THE FEW SHOWERS SCATTERED ALONG AN
E-W BAND FROM SRN OHIO EWD ACROSS CENTRAL WV WILL DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET.

TONIGHT WILL BRING MORE VALLEY FOG THEN STRATUS ALTHOUGH THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME OF EITHER.  HAVE DENSE FOG CRW AND EKN AND IFR FOG
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.  STRATUS THAT DOES NOT FORM BY DAWN WED WILL
LIKELY FORM AS MORNING CU AFTER DAWN.  THIS MAY AGAIN TAKE ALL
MORNING TO MIX OUT.  WHEN IT DOES...ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE
ALLOWED TO FIRE UP.

LIGHT NW SFC FLOW WILL GO CALM TONIGHT AND THEN BECOME LIGHT W ON
WED.  LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME LIGHT W ON WED.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THE EXTENT OF FOG AND STRATUS MAY VARY
OVERNIGHT AND WED MORNING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/26
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM









000
FXUS61 KRLX 291855
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
255 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL...DRY AIRMASS HANGS ON MOST OF THE WORK WEEK...BEFORE
MODERATING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS DOMINATES THIS
PERIOD WITH S/W TROUGH OVERHEAD MOVING E THIS AFTERNOON...AND
ANOTHER WED AFTERNOON.

STUBBORN MORNING STRATUS FINALLY ALL BUT MIXED OUT.  SCATTERED
UNPLUGGED CONVECTION PERSISTS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN
A W-E AXIS.  WITH MOISTURE NOT THAT DEEP AND LACK OF HEATING...NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO AMOUNT TO MUCH BEFORE DISSIPATING BY SUNSET.

TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER FIGHT BETWEEN FOG AND STRATUS WITH FOG
WINNING OUT INITIALLY.  WE PROBABLY WILL BE DEALING WITH MORNING CU
AGAIN WED.  MODELS INDICATE INCREASED INSTABILITY WED AFTERNOON WITH
MORE SUNSHINE AND COOL AIR HANGING ALOFT...SO THE THUNDER CHANCE
RETURNS.

TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD IN LIGHT OF LATEST BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... MILD
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AS UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN U.S...WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
CANADA. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE THE AREA WILL
KEEP A DAILY MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. FLOW WILL TURN
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ON FRIDAY...WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOK TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY AS A LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASED
POPS TO HIGH CHANCE/LOWER LIKELIES IN THIS TIME FRAME
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
MIDWEST...DEEPENING THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA...AND KEEPING THE
WEATHER ON THE COOL AND UNSETTLED SIDE. DRIER WEATHER WILL FINALLY
SETTLE IN TOWARDS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES
OFF TO THE EAST...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR STRATUS / MORNING CU HAS MIXED OUT ALL BUT THE HTS AREA AND
THAT SHOULD HAPPEN THERE BY 21Z.  THE FEW SHOWERS SCATTERED ALONG AN
E-W BAND FROM SRN OHIO EWD ACROSS CENTRAL WV WILL DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET.

TONIGHT WILL BRING MORE VALLEY FOG THEN STRATUS ALTHOUGH THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME OF EITHER.  HAVE DENSE FOG CRW AND EKN AND IFR FOG
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.  STRATUS THAT DOES NOT FORM BY DAWN WED WILL
LIKELY FORM AS MORNING CU AFTER DAWN.  THIS MAY AGAIN TAKE ALL
MORNING TO MIX OUT.  WHEN IT DOES...ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE
ALLOWED TO FIRE UP.

LIGHT NW SFC FLOW WILL GO CALM TONIGHT AND THEN BECOME LIGHT W ON
WED.  LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME LIGHT W ON WED.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THE EXTENT OF FOG AND STRATUS MAY VARY
OVERNIGHT AND WED MORNING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/26
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM








000
FXUS61 KRLX 291800
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
200 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL...DRY AIRMASS HANGS ON MOST OF THE WORK WEEK...BEFORE
MODERATING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS DOMINATES THIS PERIOD WITH S/W TROUGH
OVERHEAD MOVING E THIS AFTERNOON...AND ANOTHER WED AFTERNOON.

STUBBORN MORNING STRATUS FINALLY ALL BUT MIXED OUT.  SCATTERED
UNPLUGGED CONVECTION PERSISTS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN
A W-E AXIS.  WITH MOISTURE NOT THAT DEEP AND LACK OF HEATING...NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO AMOUNT TO MUCH BEFORE DISSIPATING BY SUNSET.

TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER FIGHT BETWEEN FOG AND STRATUS WITH FOG
WINNING OUT INITIALLY.  WE PROBABLY WILL BE DEALING WITH MORNING CU
AGAIN WED.  MODELS INDICATE INCREASED INSTABILITY WED AFTERNOON WITH
MORE SUNSHINE AND COOL AIR HANGING ALOFT...SO THE THUNDER CHANCE
RETURNS.

TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD IN LIGHT OF LATEST BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE MEAN EASTERN U.S. UPPER
TROUGH WEDNESDAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE AND MAY
BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOSTLY IN THE NORTH. ALL THE
MODELS SHOW A HEALTHY RH FIELD WITH THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTH.
BUT WITH LACK OF A LOW LEVEL FOCUSING MECHANISM...THE SHOWERS WILL
TEND TO BE DIURNAL...WIDELY SCATTERED...AND LIGHT. SLOWLY
RISING HEIGHTS WITHIN THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AND MODERATING SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND A SLOW WARMING TREND
THURSDAY. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO GET BACK INTO MAINLY THE LOWER
80S BY THURSDAY...WHICH IS STILL BELOW NORMAL.

BY FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH WEAKER...THE MEAN EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH
SHARPENS UP A BIT...AS UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
RETROGRADES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BY THIS TIME WILL HAVE SHIFTED
FAR ENOUGH EAST TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW. THE INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL BRING A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY ON EAST FACING SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS WHERE MODEST UPSLOPE FORCING INCREASES. INCREASED
CLOUDS FRIDAY WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE LOWER 80S...BUT
HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS LATE ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...AS A SYSTEM LIFTS UP FROM THE CAROLINAS. HIGH PRESSURE
AGAIN BUILDS IN FOR NEXT WEEK.

USED AND BLEND OF MODEL AND HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR STRATUS / MORNING CU HAS MIXED OUT ALL BUT THE HTS AREA AND
THAT SHOULD HAPPEN THERE BY 21Z.  THE FEW SHOWERS SCATTERED ALONG AN
E-W BAND FROM SRN OHIO EWD ACROSS CENTRAL WV WILL DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET.

TONIGHT WILL BRING MORE VALLEY FOG THEN STRATUS ALTHOUGH THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME OF EITHER.  HAVE DENSE FOG CRW AND EKN AND IFR FOG
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.  STRATUS THAT DOES NOT FORM BY DAWN WED WILL
LIKELY FORM AS MORNING CU AFTER DAWN.  THIS MAY AGAIN TAKE ALL
MORNING TO MIX OUT.  WHEN IT DOES...ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE
ALLOWED TO FIRE UP.

LIGHT NW SFC FLOW WILL GO CALM TONIGHT AND THEN BECOME LIGHT W ON
WED.  LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME LIGHT W ON WED.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THE EXTENT OF FOG AND STRATUS MAY VARY
OVERNIGHT AND WED MORNING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/26
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...TRM/26







000
FXUS61 KRLX 291800
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
200 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL...DRY AIRMASS HANGS ON MOST OF THE WORK WEEK...BEFORE
MODERATING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS DOMINATES THIS PERIOD WITH S/W TROUGH
OVERHEAD MOVING E THIS AFTERNOON...AND ANOTHER WED AFTERNOON.

STUBBORN MORNING STRATUS FINALLY ALL BUT MIXED OUT.  SCATTERED
UNPLUGGED CONVECTION PERSISTS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN
A W-E AXIS.  WITH MOISTURE NOT THAT DEEP AND LACK OF HEATING...NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO AMOUNT TO MUCH BEFORE DISSIPATING BY SUNSET.

TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER FIGHT BETWEEN FOG AND STRATUS WITH FOG
WINNING OUT INITIALLY.  WE PROBABLY WILL BE DEALING WITH MORNING CU
AGAIN WED.  MODELS INDICATE INCREASED INSTABILITY WED AFTERNOON WITH
MORE SUNSHINE AND COOL AIR HANGING ALOFT...SO THE THUNDER CHANCE
RETURNS.

TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD IN LIGHT OF LATEST BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE MEAN EASTERN U.S. UPPER
TROUGH WEDNESDAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE AND MAY
BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOSTLY IN THE NORTH. ALL THE
MODELS SHOW A HEALTHY RH FIELD WITH THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTH.
BUT WITH LACK OF A LOW LEVEL FOCUSING MECHANISM...THE SHOWERS WILL
TEND TO BE DIURNAL...WIDELY SCATTERED...AND LIGHT. SLOWLY
RISING HEIGHTS WITHIN THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AND MODERATING SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND A SLOW WARMING TREND
THURSDAY. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO GET BACK INTO MAINLY THE LOWER
80S BY THURSDAY...WHICH IS STILL BELOW NORMAL.

BY FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH WEAKER...THE MEAN EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH
SHARPENS UP A BIT...AS UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
RETROGRADES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BY THIS TIME WILL HAVE SHIFTED
FAR ENOUGH EAST TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW. THE INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL BRING A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY ON EAST FACING SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS WHERE MODEST UPSLOPE FORCING INCREASES. INCREASED
CLOUDS FRIDAY WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE LOWER 80S...BUT
HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS LATE ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...AS A SYSTEM LIFTS UP FROM THE CAROLINAS. HIGH PRESSURE
AGAIN BUILDS IN FOR NEXT WEEK.

USED AND BLEND OF MODEL AND HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR STRATUS / MORNING CU HAS MIXED OUT ALL BUT THE HTS AREA AND
THAT SHOULD HAPPEN THERE BY 21Z.  THE FEW SHOWERS SCATTERED ALONG AN
E-W BAND FROM SRN OHIO EWD ACROSS CENTRAL WV WILL DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET.

TONIGHT WILL BRING MORE VALLEY FOG THEN STRATUS ALTHOUGH THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME OF EITHER.  HAVE DENSE FOG CRW AND EKN AND IFR FOG
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.  STRATUS THAT DOES NOT FORM BY DAWN WED WILL
LIKELY FORM AS MORNING CU AFTER DAWN.  THIS MAY AGAIN TAKE ALL
MORNING TO MIX OUT.  WHEN IT DOES...ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE
ALLOWED TO FIRE UP.

LIGHT NW SFC FLOW WILL GO CALM TONIGHT AND THEN BECOME LIGHT W ON
WED.  LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME LIGHT W ON WED.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THE EXTENT OF FOG AND STRATUS MAY VARY
OVERNIGHT AND WED MORNING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/26
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...TRM/26







000
FXUS61 KRLX 291800
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
200 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL...DRY AIRMASS HANGS ON MOST OF THE WORK WEEK...BEFORE
MODERATING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS DOMINATES THIS PERIOD WITH S/W TROUGH
OVERHEAD MOVING E THIS AFTERNOON...AND ANOTHER WED AFTERNOON.

STUBBORN MORNING STRATUS FINALLY ALL BUT MIXED OUT.  SCATTERED
UNPLUGGED CONVECTION PERSISTS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN
A W-E AXIS.  WITH MOISTURE NOT THAT DEEP AND LACK OF HEATING...NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO AMOUNT TO MUCH BEFORE DISSIPATING BY SUNSET.

TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER FIGHT BETWEEN FOG AND STRATUS WITH FOG
WINNING OUT INITIALLY.  WE PROBABLY WILL BE DEALING WITH MORNING CU
AGAIN WED.  MODELS INDICATE INCREASED INSTABILITY WED AFTERNOON WITH
MORE SUNSHINE AND COOL AIR HANGING ALOFT...SO THE THUNDER CHANCE
RETURNS.

TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD IN LIGHT OF LATEST BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE MEAN EASTERN U.S. UPPER
TROUGH WEDNESDAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE AND MAY
BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOSTLY IN THE NORTH. ALL THE
MODELS SHOW A HEALTHY RH FIELD WITH THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTH.
BUT WITH LACK OF A LOW LEVEL FOCUSING MECHANISM...THE SHOWERS WILL
TEND TO BE DIURNAL...WIDELY SCATTERED...AND LIGHT. SLOWLY
RISING HEIGHTS WITHIN THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AND MODERATING SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND A SLOW WARMING TREND
THURSDAY. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO GET BACK INTO MAINLY THE LOWER
80S BY THURSDAY...WHICH IS STILL BELOW NORMAL.

BY FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH WEAKER...THE MEAN EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH
SHARPENS UP A BIT...AS UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
RETROGRADES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BY THIS TIME WILL HAVE SHIFTED
FAR ENOUGH EAST TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW. THE INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL BRING A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY ON EAST FACING SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS WHERE MODEST UPSLOPE FORCING INCREASES. INCREASED
CLOUDS FRIDAY WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE LOWER 80S...BUT
HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS LATE ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...AS A SYSTEM LIFTS UP FROM THE CAROLINAS. HIGH PRESSURE
AGAIN BUILDS IN FOR NEXT WEEK.

USED AND BLEND OF MODEL AND HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR STRATUS / MORNING CU HAS MIXED OUT ALL BUT THE HTS AREA AND
THAT SHOULD HAPPEN THERE BY 21Z.  THE FEW SHOWERS SCATTERED ALONG AN
E-W BAND FROM SRN OHIO EWD ACROSS CENTRAL WV WILL DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET.

TONIGHT WILL BRING MORE VALLEY FOG THEN STRATUS ALTHOUGH THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME OF EITHER.  HAVE DENSE FOG CRW AND EKN AND IFR FOG
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.  STRATUS THAT DOES NOT FORM BY DAWN WED WILL
LIKELY FORM AS MORNING CU AFTER DAWN.  THIS MAY AGAIN TAKE ALL
MORNING TO MIX OUT.  WHEN IT DOES...ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE
ALLOWED TO FIRE UP.

LIGHT NW SFC FLOW WILL GO CALM TONIGHT AND THEN BECOME LIGHT W ON
WED.  LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME LIGHT W ON WED.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THE EXTENT OF FOG AND STRATUS MAY VARY
OVERNIGHT AND WED MORNING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/26
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...TRM/26







000
FXUS61 KRLX 291800
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
200 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL...DRY AIRMASS HANGS ON MOST OF THE WORK WEEK...BEFORE
MODERATING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS DOMINATES THIS PERIOD WITH S/W TROUGH
OVERHEAD MOVING E THIS AFTERNOON...AND ANOTHER WED AFTERNOON.

STUBBORN MORNING STRATUS FINALLY ALL BUT MIXED OUT.  SCATTERED
UNPLUGGED CONVECTION PERSISTS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN
A W-E AXIS.  WITH MOISTURE NOT THAT DEEP AND LACK OF HEATING...NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO AMOUNT TO MUCH BEFORE DISSIPATING BY SUNSET.

TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER FIGHT BETWEEN FOG AND STRATUS WITH FOG
WINNING OUT INITIALLY.  WE PROBABLY WILL BE DEALING WITH MORNING CU
AGAIN WED.  MODELS INDICATE INCREASED INSTABILITY WED AFTERNOON WITH
MORE SUNSHINE AND COOL AIR HANGING ALOFT...SO THE THUNDER CHANCE
RETURNS.

TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD IN LIGHT OF LATEST BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE MEAN EASTERN U.S. UPPER
TROUGH WEDNESDAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE AND MAY
BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOSTLY IN THE NORTH. ALL THE
MODELS SHOW A HEALTHY RH FIELD WITH THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTH.
BUT WITH LACK OF A LOW LEVEL FOCUSING MECHANISM...THE SHOWERS WILL
TEND TO BE DIURNAL...WIDELY SCATTERED...AND LIGHT. SLOWLY
RISING HEIGHTS WITHIN THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AND MODERATING SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND A SLOW WARMING TREND
THURSDAY. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO GET BACK INTO MAINLY THE LOWER
80S BY THURSDAY...WHICH IS STILL BELOW NORMAL.

BY FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH WEAKER...THE MEAN EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH
SHARPENS UP A BIT...AS UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
RETROGRADES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BY THIS TIME WILL HAVE SHIFTED
FAR ENOUGH EAST TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW. THE INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL BRING A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY ON EAST FACING SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS WHERE MODEST UPSLOPE FORCING INCREASES. INCREASED
CLOUDS FRIDAY WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE LOWER 80S...BUT
HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS LATE ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...AS A SYSTEM LIFTS UP FROM THE CAROLINAS. HIGH PRESSURE
AGAIN BUILDS IN FOR NEXT WEEK.

USED AND BLEND OF MODEL AND HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR STRATUS / MORNING CU HAS MIXED OUT ALL BUT THE HTS AREA AND
THAT SHOULD HAPPEN THERE BY 21Z.  THE FEW SHOWERS SCATTERED ALONG AN
E-W BAND FROM SRN OHIO EWD ACROSS CENTRAL WV WILL DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET.

TONIGHT WILL BRING MORE VALLEY FOG THEN STRATUS ALTHOUGH THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME OF EITHER.  HAVE DENSE FOG CRW AND EKN AND IFR FOG
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.  STRATUS THAT DOES NOT FORM BY DAWN WED WILL
LIKELY FORM AS MORNING CU AFTER DAWN.  THIS MAY AGAIN TAKE ALL
MORNING TO MIX OUT.  WHEN IT DOES...ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE
ALLOWED TO FIRE UP.

LIGHT NW SFC FLOW WILL GO CALM TONIGHT AND THEN BECOME LIGHT W ON
WED.  LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME LIGHT W ON WED.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THE EXTENT OF FOG AND STRATUS MAY VARY
OVERNIGHT AND WED MORNING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/26
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...TRM/26







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