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000
FXUS61 KRLX 112337
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
637 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS PICK UP AGAIN
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT PLOWS THROUGH THE
AREA GIVING EVEN COLDER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
620 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME AS FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL ALLOW MAINLY DIURNAL CLOUDS TO
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. WENT ON LOWER SIDE OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
BUT DID NOT HIT THAT TOO HARD DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY LATER ON
TONIGHT ABOUT THE TIMING OF THE INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT
SYSTEM. MODELS HAVE THIS HIGH PRESSURE RAPIDLY SHIFTING EAST BY
FRIDAY...WHICH ALLOWS THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE HERALDING AN
ARCTIC FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. THE DISTURBANCE AND
BEST FORCING LOOKS TO TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING SOME SNOW TO MOST
OF THE AREA FRIDAY. WITH THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AND ITS LIMITED
MOISTURE...SNOW TOTALS FROM THIS DISTURBANCE THRU THE DAY FRIDAY
LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH THE HEAVIEST OVER THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS. LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE FRONT PASSES AND
NORTHWEST FLOW WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS...WE LOOK FOR
THIS TO TRANSITION INTO MAINLY AN UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN EVENT...BUT
WITH THE BEST UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS OCCURRING
MAINLY AFTER THIS PERIOD. THUS...OUTSIDE THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS
AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL
FRIDAY...WE LOOK FOR GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH IN MOST OF THE
REMAINING LOW LANDS. IN THE MOUNTAINS...WE HAVE SOME HIGHER
AMOUNTS DUE TO UPSLOPE. GIVEN ALL THIS...SNOW TOTALS WILL BE JUST
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...SO NO HEADLINES. LOOK FOR FRIGID TEMPS
TONIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES FRIDAY REACHING CLOSER TO THE 30 DEGREE
MARK AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO START WITH...BUT A SLUG OF MOISTURE GETS USHERED
IN ON ZONAL FLOW INCREASING POPS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STILL PLENTY
COLD FOR SNOW WITH GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES FOR THE LOWLANDS AND
2-5 IN THE MTNS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHISKS OFF TO THE EAST
BRINGING ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MORE UPSLOPE SNOW.
THEN COLD HIGH PRESSURE HUNKERS DOWN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY FOR SOME VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WITH 850 TEMPS DOWN TO -22
C. PROBABLY WILL NEED ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR WIND CHILLS FOR THE
HIGHEST MOUNTAIN COUNTIES AND MAYBE FOR SNOW TOO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
MODELS ARE GRADUALLY TRYING TO COME TOGETHER. SERIES OF POTENT WAVES
TO AFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. FIRST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AS WAVE MOVES INTO GREAT LAKES REGION...SPREADING MAINLY
LIGHT SNOWFALL INTO THE REGION. THE SECOND MORE POWERFUL WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. TOWARDS
THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF
THE LOW...WILL DETERMINE WHETHER AREA IS LOOKING AT AN ALL SNOW
EVENT...OR A WINTRY MIX AT TIMES. AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE A
WINTRY MIX CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS...WHICH OF COURSE WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL POTENTIAL. WITH THE
OVERALL UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP A MENTION
OUT OF THE HWO FOR ONE MORE DAY...AND ALLOW FOCUS TO REMAIN ON
SYSTEMS AND IMPACTS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALL TERMINALS HAVE BECOME VFR THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...SOME MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW WILL
GENERALLY ARRIVE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.

AFTER 16Z FRIDAY...RAPIDLY BECOMING MVFR WITH LIGHT SNOW AS UPPER
DISTURBANCE RACES EASTWARD...WITH HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ARRIVING IN
THE MOUNTAINS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THAT COULD BRING PERIODS OF
IFR CONDITIONS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SNOW TOMORROW IS STILL UNCERTAIN
AND MOVE MOVE IN SOUTHERN AREAS EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED. SNOW
IN THE MOUNTAINS MAY END QUICKER THAN FORECAST AND COULD POSSIBLY
DROP CIGS/VIS LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EST 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/JW/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV/MPK
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...MPK




000
FXUS61 KRLX 112337
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
637 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS PICK UP AGAIN
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT PLOWS THROUGH THE
AREA GIVING EVEN COLDER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
620 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME AS FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL ALLOW MAINLY DIURNAL CLOUDS TO
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. WENT ON LOWER SIDE OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
BUT DID NOT HIT THAT TOO HARD DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY LATER ON
TONIGHT ABOUT THE TIMING OF THE INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT
SYSTEM. MODELS HAVE THIS HIGH PRESSURE RAPIDLY SHIFTING EAST BY
FRIDAY...WHICH ALLOWS THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE HERALDING AN
ARCTIC FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. THE DISTURBANCE AND
BEST FORCING LOOKS TO TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING SOME SNOW TO MOST
OF THE AREA FRIDAY. WITH THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AND ITS LIMITED
MOISTURE...SNOW TOTALS FROM THIS DISTURBANCE THRU THE DAY FRIDAY
LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH THE HEAVIEST OVER THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS. LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE FRONT PASSES AND
NORTHWEST FLOW WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS...WE LOOK FOR
THIS TO TRANSITION INTO MAINLY AN UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN EVENT...BUT
WITH THE BEST UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS OCCURRING
MAINLY AFTER THIS PERIOD. THUS...OUTSIDE THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS
AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL
FRIDAY...WE LOOK FOR GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH IN MOST OF THE
REMAINING LOW LANDS. IN THE MOUNTAINS...WE HAVE SOME HIGHER
AMOUNTS DUE TO UPSLOPE. GIVEN ALL THIS...SNOW TOTALS WILL BE JUST
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...SO NO HEADLINES. LOOK FOR FRIGID TEMPS
TONIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES FRIDAY REACHING CLOSER TO THE 30 DEGREE
MARK AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO START WITH...BUT A SLUG OF MOISTURE GETS USHERED
IN ON ZONAL FLOW INCREASING POPS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STILL PLENTY
COLD FOR SNOW WITH GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES FOR THE LOWLANDS AND
2-5 IN THE MTNS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHISKS OFF TO THE EAST
BRINGING ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MORE UPSLOPE SNOW.
THEN COLD HIGH PRESSURE HUNKERS DOWN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY FOR SOME VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WITH 850 TEMPS DOWN TO -22
C. PROBABLY WILL NEED ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR WIND CHILLS FOR THE
HIGHEST MOUNTAIN COUNTIES AND MAYBE FOR SNOW TOO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
MODELS ARE GRADUALLY TRYING TO COME TOGETHER. SERIES OF POTENT WAVES
TO AFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. FIRST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AS WAVE MOVES INTO GREAT LAKES REGION...SPREADING MAINLY
LIGHT SNOWFALL INTO THE REGION. THE SECOND MORE POWERFUL WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. TOWARDS
THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF
THE LOW...WILL DETERMINE WHETHER AREA IS LOOKING AT AN ALL SNOW
EVENT...OR A WINTRY MIX AT TIMES. AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE A
WINTRY MIX CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS...WHICH OF COURSE WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL POTENTIAL. WITH THE
OVERALL UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP A MENTION
OUT OF THE HWO FOR ONE MORE DAY...AND ALLOW FOCUS TO REMAIN ON
SYSTEMS AND IMPACTS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALL TERMINALS HAVE BECOME VFR THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...SOME MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW WILL
GENERALLY ARRIVE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.

AFTER 16Z FRIDAY...RAPIDLY BECOMING MVFR WITH LIGHT SNOW AS UPPER
DISTURBANCE RACES EASTWARD...WITH HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ARRIVING IN
THE MOUNTAINS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THAT COULD BRING PERIODS OF
IFR CONDITIONS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SNOW TOMORROW IS STILL UNCERTAIN
AND MOVE MOVE IN SOUTHERN AREAS EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED. SNOW
IN THE MOUNTAINS MAY END QUICKER THAN FORECAST AND COULD POSSIBLY
DROP CIGS/VIS LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EST 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/JW/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV/MPK
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...MPK




000
FXUS61 KRLX 112337
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
637 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS PICK UP AGAIN
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT PLOWS THROUGH THE
AREA GIVING EVEN COLDER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
620 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME AS FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL ALLOW MAINLY DIURNAL CLOUDS TO
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. WENT ON LOWER SIDE OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
BUT DID NOT HIT THAT TOO HARD DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY LATER ON
TONIGHT ABOUT THE TIMING OF THE INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT
SYSTEM. MODELS HAVE THIS HIGH PRESSURE RAPIDLY SHIFTING EAST BY
FRIDAY...WHICH ALLOWS THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE HERALDING AN
ARCTIC FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. THE DISTURBANCE AND
BEST FORCING LOOKS TO TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING SOME SNOW TO MOST
OF THE AREA FRIDAY. WITH THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AND ITS LIMITED
MOISTURE...SNOW TOTALS FROM THIS DISTURBANCE THRU THE DAY FRIDAY
LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH THE HEAVIEST OVER THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS. LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE FRONT PASSES AND
NORTHWEST FLOW WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS...WE LOOK FOR
THIS TO TRANSITION INTO MAINLY AN UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN EVENT...BUT
WITH THE BEST UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS OCCURRING
MAINLY AFTER THIS PERIOD. THUS...OUTSIDE THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS
AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL
FRIDAY...WE LOOK FOR GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH IN MOST OF THE
REMAINING LOW LANDS. IN THE MOUNTAINS...WE HAVE SOME HIGHER
AMOUNTS DUE TO UPSLOPE. GIVEN ALL THIS...SNOW TOTALS WILL BE JUST
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...SO NO HEADLINES. LOOK FOR FRIGID TEMPS
TONIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES FRIDAY REACHING CLOSER TO THE 30 DEGREE
MARK AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO START WITH...BUT A SLUG OF MOISTURE GETS USHERED
IN ON ZONAL FLOW INCREASING POPS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STILL PLENTY
COLD FOR SNOW WITH GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES FOR THE LOWLANDS AND
2-5 IN THE MTNS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHISKS OFF TO THE EAST
BRINGING ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MORE UPSLOPE SNOW.
THEN COLD HIGH PRESSURE HUNKERS DOWN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY FOR SOME VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WITH 850 TEMPS DOWN TO -22
C. PROBABLY WILL NEED ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR WIND CHILLS FOR THE
HIGHEST MOUNTAIN COUNTIES AND MAYBE FOR SNOW TOO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
MODELS ARE GRADUALLY TRYING TO COME TOGETHER. SERIES OF POTENT WAVES
TO AFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. FIRST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AS WAVE MOVES INTO GREAT LAKES REGION...SPREADING MAINLY
LIGHT SNOWFALL INTO THE REGION. THE SECOND MORE POWERFUL WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. TOWARDS
THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF
THE LOW...WILL DETERMINE WHETHER AREA IS LOOKING AT AN ALL SNOW
EVENT...OR A WINTRY MIX AT TIMES. AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE A
WINTRY MIX CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS...WHICH OF COURSE WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL POTENTIAL. WITH THE
OVERALL UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP A MENTION
OUT OF THE HWO FOR ONE MORE DAY...AND ALLOW FOCUS TO REMAIN ON
SYSTEMS AND IMPACTS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALL TERMINALS HAVE BECOME VFR THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...SOME MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW WILL
GENERALLY ARRIVE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.

AFTER 16Z FRIDAY...RAPIDLY BECOMING MVFR WITH LIGHT SNOW AS UPPER
DISTURBANCE RACES EASTWARD...WITH HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ARRIVING IN
THE MOUNTAINS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THAT COULD BRING PERIODS OF
IFR CONDITIONS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SNOW TOMORROW IS STILL UNCERTAIN
AND MOVE MOVE IN SOUTHERN AREAS EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED. SNOW
IN THE MOUNTAINS MAY END QUICKER THAN FORECAST AND COULD POSSIBLY
DROP CIGS/VIS LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EST 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/JW/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV/MPK
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...MPK



000
FXUS61 KRLX 112009
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
309 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS PICK UP AGAIN
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT PLOWS THROUGH THE
AREA GIVING EVEN COLDER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL ALLOW MAINLY DIURNAL CLOUDS TO
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. WENT ON LOWER SIDE OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
BUT DID NOT HIT THAT TOO HARD DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY LATER ON
TONIGHT ABOUT THE TIMING OF THE INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT
SYSTEM. MODELS HAVE THIS HIGH PRESSURE RAPIDLY SHIFTING EAST BY
FRIDAY...WHICH ALLOWS THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE HERALDING AN
ARCTIC FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. THE DISTURBANCE AND
BEST FORCING LOOKS TO TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING SOME SNOW TO MOST
OF THE AREA FRIDAY. WITH THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AND ITS LIMITED
MOISTURE...SNOW TOTALS FROM THIS DISTURBANCE THRU THE DAY FRIDAY
LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH THE HEAVIEST OVER THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS. LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE FRONT PASSES AND
NORTHWEST FLOW WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS...WE LOOK FOR
THIS TO TRANSITION INTO MAINLY AN UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN EVENT...BUT
WITH THE BEST UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS OCCURRING
MAINLY AFTER THIS PERIOD. THUS...OUTSIDE THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS
AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL
FRIDAY...WE LOOK FOR GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH IN MOST OF THE
REMAINING LOW LANDS. IN THE MOUNTAINS...WE HAVE SOME HIGHER
AMOUNTS DUE TO UPSLOPE. GIVEN ALL THIS...SNOW TOTALS WILL BE JUST
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...SO NO HEADLINES. LOOK FOR FRIGID TEMPS
TONIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES FRIDAY REACHING CLOSER TO THE 30 DEGREE
MARK AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO START WITH...BUT A SLUG OF MOISTURE GETS USHERED
IN ON ZONAL FLOW INCREASING POPS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STILL PLENTY
COLD FOR SNOW WITH GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES FOR THE LOWLANDS AND
2-5 IN THE MTNS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHISKS OFF TO THE EAST
BRINGING ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MORE UPSLOPE SNOW.
THEN COLD HIGH PRESSURE HUNKERS DOWN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY FOR SOME VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WITH 850 TEMPS DOWN TO -22
C. PROBABLY WILL NEED ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR WIND CHILLS FOR THE
HIGHEST MOUNTAIN COUNTIES AND MAYBE FOR SNOW TOO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
MODELS ARE GRADUALLY TRYING TO COME TOGETHER. SERIES OF POTENT WAVES
TO AFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. FIRST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AS WAVE MOVES INTO GREAT LAKES REGION...SPREADING MAINLY
LIGHT SNOWFALL INTO THE REGION. THE SECOND MORE POWERFUL WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. TOWARDS
THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF
THE LOW...WILL DETERMINE WHETHER AREA IS LOOKING AT AN ALL SNOW
EVENT...OR A WINTRY MIX AT TIMES. AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE A
WINTRY MIX CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS...WHICH OF COURSE WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL POTENTIAL. WITH THE
OVERALL UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP A MENTION
OUT OF THE HWO FOR ONE MORE DAY...AND ALLOW FOCUS TO REMAIN ON
SYSTEMS AND IMPACTS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z THURSDAY THRU 18Z FRIDAY...
GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS...BECOMING VFR CEILINGS
19-22Z...THEN SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS AOA 7000 FEET AGL AFTER 00Z.
ELSEWHERE...SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS AOA 4000 FEET AGL...EXCEPT VFR
FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST OHIO.
WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 04Z...WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLY ARRIVING IN MAINLY
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA BY 12Z FRIDAY.

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...RAPIDLY BECOMING MVFR IN GENERAL LIGHT SNOW AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER DISTURBANCE RACES EASTWARD...WITH HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS BY 18Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS MAY END QUICKER
THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EST 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/JW/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JMV




000
FXUS61 KRLX 112009
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
309 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS PICK UP AGAIN
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT PLOWS THROUGH THE
AREA GIVING EVEN COLDER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL ALLOW MAINLY DIURNAL CLOUDS TO
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. WENT ON LOWER SIDE OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
BUT DID NOT HIT THAT TOO HARD DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY LATER ON
TONIGHT ABOUT THE TIMING OF THE INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT
SYSTEM. MODELS HAVE THIS HIGH PRESSURE RAPIDLY SHIFTING EAST BY
FRIDAY...WHICH ALLOWS THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE HERALDING AN
ARCTIC FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. THE DISTURBANCE AND
BEST FORCING LOOKS TO TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING SOME SNOW TO MOST
OF THE AREA FRIDAY. WITH THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AND ITS LIMITED
MOISTURE...SNOW TOTALS FROM THIS DISTURBANCE THRU THE DAY FRIDAY
LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH THE HEAVIEST OVER THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS. LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE FRONT PASSES AND
NORTHWEST FLOW WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS...WE LOOK FOR
THIS TO TRANSITION INTO MAINLY AN UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN EVENT...BUT
WITH THE BEST UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS OCCURRING
MAINLY AFTER THIS PERIOD. THUS...OUTSIDE THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS
AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL
FRIDAY...WE LOOK FOR GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH IN MOST OF THE
REMAINING LOW LANDS. IN THE MOUNTAINS...WE HAVE SOME HIGHER
AMOUNTS DUE TO UPSLOPE. GIVEN ALL THIS...SNOW TOTALS WILL BE JUST
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...SO NO HEADLINES. LOOK FOR FRIGID TEMPS
TONIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES FRIDAY REACHING CLOSER TO THE 30 DEGREE
MARK AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO START WITH...BUT A SLUG OF MOISTURE GETS USHERED
IN ON ZONAL FLOW INCREASING POPS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STILL PLENTY
COLD FOR SNOW WITH GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES FOR THE LOWLANDS AND
2-5 IN THE MTNS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHISKS OFF TO THE EAST
BRINGING ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MORE UPSLOPE SNOW.
THEN COLD HIGH PRESSURE HUNKERS DOWN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY FOR SOME VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WITH 850 TEMPS DOWN TO -22
C. PROBABLY WILL NEED ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR WIND CHILLS FOR THE
HIGHEST MOUNTAIN COUNTIES AND MAYBE FOR SNOW TOO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
MODELS ARE GRADUALLY TRYING TO COME TOGETHER. SERIES OF POTENT WAVES
TO AFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. FIRST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AS WAVE MOVES INTO GREAT LAKES REGION...SPREADING MAINLY
LIGHT SNOWFALL INTO THE REGION. THE SECOND MORE POWERFUL WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. TOWARDS
THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF
THE LOW...WILL DETERMINE WHETHER AREA IS LOOKING AT AN ALL SNOW
EVENT...OR A WINTRY MIX AT TIMES. AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE A
WINTRY MIX CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS...WHICH OF COURSE WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL POTENTIAL. WITH THE
OVERALL UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP A MENTION
OUT OF THE HWO FOR ONE MORE DAY...AND ALLOW FOCUS TO REMAIN ON
SYSTEMS AND IMPACTS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z THURSDAY THRU 18Z FRIDAY...
GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS...BECOMING VFR CEILINGS
19-22Z...THEN SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS AOA 7000 FEET AGL AFTER 00Z.
ELSEWHERE...SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS AOA 4000 FEET AGL...EXCEPT VFR
FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST OHIO.
WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 04Z...WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLY ARRIVING IN MAINLY
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA BY 12Z FRIDAY.

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...RAPIDLY BECOMING MVFR IN GENERAL LIGHT SNOW AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER DISTURBANCE RACES EASTWARD...WITH HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS BY 18Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS MAY END QUICKER
THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EST 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/JW/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JMV



000
FXUS61 KRLX 112009
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
309 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS PICK UP AGAIN
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT PLOWS THROUGH THE
AREA GIVING EVEN COLDER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL ALLOW MAINLY DIURNAL CLOUDS TO
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. WENT ON LOWER SIDE OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
BUT DID NOT HIT THAT TOO HARD DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY LATER ON
TONIGHT ABOUT THE TIMING OF THE INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT
SYSTEM. MODELS HAVE THIS HIGH PRESSURE RAPIDLY SHIFTING EAST BY
FRIDAY...WHICH ALLOWS THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE HERALDING AN
ARCTIC FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. THE DISTURBANCE AND
BEST FORCING LOOKS TO TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING SOME SNOW TO MOST
OF THE AREA FRIDAY. WITH THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AND ITS LIMITED
MOISTURE...SNOW TOTALS FROM THIS DISTURBANCE THRU THE DAY FRIDAY
LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH THE HEAVIEST OVER THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS. LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE FRONT PASSES AND
NORTHWEST FLOW WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS...WE LOOK FOR
THIS TO TRANSITION INTO MAINLY AN UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN EVENT...BUT
WITH THE BEST UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS OCCURRING
MAINLY AFTER THIS PERIOD. THUS...OUTSIDE THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS
AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL
FRIDAY...WE LOOK FOR GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH IN MOST OF THE
REMAINING LOW LANDS. IN THE MOUNTAINS...WE HAVE SOME HIGHER
AMOUNTS DUE TO UPSLOPE. GIVEN ALL THIS...SNOW TOTALS WILL BE JUST
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...SO NO HEADLINES. LOOK FOR FRIGID TEMPS
TONIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES FRIDAY REACHING CLOSER TO THE 30 DEGREE
MARK AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO START WITH...BUT A SLUG OF MOISTURE GETS USHERED
IN ON ZONAL FLOW INCREASING POPS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STILL PLENTY
COLD FOR SNOW WITH GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES FOR THE LOWLANDS AND
2-5 IN THE MTNS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHISKS OFF TO THE EAST
BRINGING ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MORE UPSLOPE SNOW.
THEN COLD HIGH PRESSURE HUNKERS DOWN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY FOR SOME VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WITH 850 TEMPS DOWN TO -22
C. PROBABLY WILL NEED ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR WIND CHILLS FOR THE
HIGHEST MOUNTAIN COUNTIES AND MAYBE FOR SNOW TOO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
MODELS ARE GRADUALLY TRYING TO COME TOGETHER. SERIES OF POTENT WAVES
TO AFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. FIRST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AS WAVE MOVES INTO GREAT LAKES REGION...SPREADING MAINLY
LIGHT SNOWFALL INTO THE REGION. THE SECOND MORE POWERFUL WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. TOWARDS
THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF
THE LOW...WILL DETERMINE WHETHER AREA IS LOOKING AT AN ALL SNOW
EVENT...OR A WINTRY MIX AT TIMES. AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE A
WINTRY MIX CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS...WHICH OF COURSE WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL POTENTIAL. WITH THE
OVERALL UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP A MENTION
OUT OF THE HWO FOR ONE MORE DAY...AND ALLOW FOCUS TO REMAIN ON
SYSTEMS AND IMPACTS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z THURSDAY THRU 18Z FRIDAY...
GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS...BECOMING VFR CEILINGS
19-22Z...THEN SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS AOA 7000 FEET AGL AFTER 00Z.
ELSEWHERE...SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS AOA 4000 FEET AGL...EXCEPT VFR
FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST OHIO.
WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 04Z...WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLY ARRIVING IN MAINLY
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA BY 12Z FRIDAY.

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...RAPIDLY BECOMING MVFR IN GENERAL LIGHT SNOW AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER DISTURBANCE RACES EASTWARD...WITH HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS BY 18Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS MAY END QUICKER
THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EST 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/JW/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JMV




000
FXUS61 KRLX 112007
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
307 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS PICK UP AGAIN
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT PLOWS THROUGH THE
AREA GIVING EVEN COLDER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL ALLOW MAINLY DIURNAL CLOUDS TO
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. WENT ON LOWER SIDE OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
     BUT DID NOT HIT THAT TOO HARD DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY LATER ON
TONIGHT ABOUT THE TIMING OF THE INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT
SYSTEM. MODELS HAVE THIS HIGH PRESSURE RAPIDLY SHIFTING EAST BY
FRIDAY...WHICH ALLOWS THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE HERALDING AN
ARCTIC FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. THE DISTURBANCE AND
BEST FORCING LOOKS TO TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING SOME SNOW TO MOST
OF THE AREA FRIDAY. WITH THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AND ITS LIMITED
MOISTURE...SNOW TOTALS FROM THIS DISTURBANCE THRU THE DAY FRIDAY
LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH THE HEAVIEST OVER THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS. LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE FRONT PASSES AND
NORTHWEST FLOW WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS...WE LOOK FOR
THIS TO TRANSITION INTO MAINLY AN UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN EVENT...BUT
WITH THE BEST UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS OCCURRING
MAINLY AFTER THIS PERIOD. THUS...OUTSIDE THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS
AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL
FRIDAY...WE LOOK FOR GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH IN MOST OF THE
REMAINING LOW LANDS. IN THE MOUNTAINS...WE HAVE SOME HIGHER
AMOUNTS DUE TO UPSLOPE. GIVEN ALL THIS...SNOW TOTALS WILL BE JUST
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...SO NO HEADLINES. LOOK FOR FRIGID TEMPS
TONIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES FRIDAY REACHING CLOSER TO THE 30 DEGREE
MARK AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL KEEP LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE GOOD CHANCE FOR UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW DEPENDING ON SHOWER PLACEMENT AND
TIMING. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS ARE ONCE AGAIN THE FAVORED AREAS DUE TO
THE TOPOGRAPHY ENHANCEMENT.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGS HIGH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE TEENS SATURDAY AND THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS...SOME PLACES
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUB-ZERO DEGREES FAHRENHEIT ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS WILL
PRODUCE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS APPROACHING -30 F IN THE MOUNTAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FROM RALEIGH
COUNTY...NORTH TO RANDOLPH...POCAHONTAS...UPSHUR...BARBOUR AND
TAYLOR COUNTIES WITH WIND CHILL VALUES RANGING FROM MINUS 15 TO
MINUS 30 DEGREES.

DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS THE DRY AND COLD AIRMASS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

USED THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
MODELS ARE GRADUALLY TRYING TO COME TOGETHER. SERIES OF POTENT WAVES
TO AFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. FIRST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AS WAVE MOVES INTO GREAT LAKES REGION...SPREADING MAINLY
LIGHT SNOWFALL INTO THE REGION. THE SECOND MORE POWERFUL WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. TOWARDS
THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF
THE LOW...WILL DETERMINE WHETHER AREA IS LOOKING AT AN ALL SNOW
EVENT...OR A WINTRY MIX AT TIMES. AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE A
WINTRY MIX CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS...WHICH OF COURSE WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL POTENTIAL. WITH THE
OVERALL UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP A MENTION
OUT OF THE HWO FOR ONE MORE DAY...AND ALLOW FOCUS TO REMAIN ON
SYSTEMS AND IMPACTS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z THURSDAY THRU 18Z FRIDAY...
GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS...BECOMING VFR CEILINGS
19-22Z...THEN SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS AOA 7000 FEET AGL AFTER 00Z.
ELSEWHERE...SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS AOA 4000 FEET AGL...EXCEPT VFR
FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST OHIO.
WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 04Z...WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLY ARRIVING IN MAINLY
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA BY 12Z FRIDAY.

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...RAPIDLY BECOMING MVFR IN GENERAL LIGHT SNOW AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER DISTURBANCE RACES EASTWARD...WITH HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS BY 18Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS MAY END QUICKER
THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EST 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/JW/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JMV




000
FXUS61 KRLX 112003
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
303 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS PICK UP AGAIN
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT PLOWS THROUGH THE
AREA GIVING EVEN COLDER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL ALLOW MAINLY DIURNAL CLOUDS TO
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. WENT ON LOWER SIDE OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
...BUT DID NOT HIT THAT TOO HARD DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY LATER ON
TONIGHT ABOUT THE TIMING OF THE INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT
SYSTEM. MODELS HAVE THIS HIGH PRESSURE RAPIDLY SHIFTING EAST BY
FRIDAY...WHICH ALLOWS THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE HERALDING AN
ARCTIC FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. THE DISTURBANCE AND
BEST FORCING LOOKS TO TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING SOME SNOW TO MOST
OF THE AREA FRIDAY. WITH THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AND ITS LIMITED
MOISTURE...SNOW TOTALS FROM THIS DISTURBANCE THRU THE DAY FRIDAY
LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH THE HEAVIEST OVER THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS. LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE FRONT PASSES AND
NORTHWEST FLOW WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS...WE LOOK FOR
THIS TO TRANSITION INTO MAINLY AN UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN EVENT...BUT
WITH THE BEST UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS OCCURRING
MAINLY AFTER THIS PERIOD. THUS...OUTSIDE THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS
AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL
FRIDAY...WE LOOK FOR GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH IN MOST OF THE
REMAINING LOW LANDS. IN THE MOUNTAINS...WE HAVE SOME HIGHER
AMOUNTS DUE TO UPSLOPE. GIVEN ALL THIS...SNOW TOTALS WILL BE JUST
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...SO NO HEADLINES. LOOK FOR FRIGID TEMPS
TONIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES FRIDAY REACHING CLOSER TO THE 30 DEGREE
MARK AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL KEEP LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE GOOD CHANCE FOR UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW DEPENDING ON SHOWER PLACEMENT AND
TIMING. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS ARE ONCE AGAIN THE FAVORED AREAS DUE TO
THE TOPOGRAPHY ENHANCEMENT.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGS HIGH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE TEENS SATURDAY AND THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS...SOME PLACES
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUB-ZERO DEGREES FAHRENHEIT ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS APPROACHING -30 F IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FROM RALEIGH
COUNTY...NORTH TO RANDOLPH...POCAHONTAS...UPSHUR...BARBOUR AND
TAYLOR COUNTIES WITH WIND CHILL VALUES RANGING FROM MINUS 15 TO
MINUS 30 DEGREES.

DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS THE DRY AND COLD AIRMASS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

USED THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH LITTLE TO NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. SOME GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.
THIS WITH ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE...850MB AIR -23C...WILL RESULT IN
RATHER COLD TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY WITH SNOWFALL ON THE
GROUND...AND ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. HAVE KEPT LOW
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIND CHILL ADVISORIES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAINOUS
COUNTIES.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS PERIOD BETWEEN THE MODELS...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS THEMSELVES
APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. GFS INDICATING A
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AREA WIDE...AND
A GULF LOW MOVING EAST ALONG THE COAST...AND STAYING WELL EAST OF
THE AREA...EVENTUALLY BECOMING A NOR`EASTER. ECMWF HOWEVER INDICATES
A STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM SOLUTION...WITH LOW MOVING NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE GULF REGION INTO THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN MORE
OF A WINTRY  MIX SCENARIO TO START EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO
NEW ENGLAND. FOR NOW...IN COORDINATION WITH OTHER OFFICES...DID A
GENERAL BROAD BRUSH OF POPS IN THE EXTENDED...WITH PERIODS OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AT TIMES ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z THURSDAY THRU 18Z FRIDAY...
GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS...BECOMING VFR CEILINGS
19-22Z...THEN SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS AOA 7000 FEET AGL AFTER 00Z.
ELSEWHERE...SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS AOA 4000 FEET AGL...EXCEPT VFR
FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST OHIO.
WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 04Z...WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLY ARRIVING IN MAINLY
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA BY 12Z FRIDAY.

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...RAPIDLY BECOMING MVFR IN GENERAL LIGHT SNOW AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER DISTURBANCE RACES EASTWARD...WITH HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS BY 18Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS MAY END QUICKER
THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EST 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/JW/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JMV




000
FXUS61 KRLX 111854
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
154 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN LATER TODAY. SNOW SHOWERS PICK UP AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT PLOWS
THROUGH THE AREA GIVING EVEN COLDER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
145 PM UPDATE. EXPIRED THE LAST OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
1015 AM. UPDATED TO EXPIRE WIND CHILL FOR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
KEPT SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...BUT WILL LIKELY CANCEL REMAINING ADVISORY THERE ON
AFTERNOON PACKAGE. OTHERWISE...A BIT MORE SUNSHINE MOST AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON.

615 AM UPDATE...
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
NICHOLAS...WEBSTER...UPSHUR AND BARBOUR COUNTIES AT 600 AM. THE
REST OF FORECAST REMAINS REPRESENTATIVE OF THE EXPECTED
CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
545 AM UPDATE... SNOW SHOWERS STILL LINGER...BUT COVERAGE IS STEADILY
DECREASING. KEEPING THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA THIS MORNING...AND STILL A BIT HIGHER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STILL GETTING A FEW ISOLATED BANDS OF SNOW TRACKING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE VALLEY...AND ALSO PERSISTING IN THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE
EXTENDED THE CWA WIDE LOW POPS BECAUSE OF THIS THROUGH THE DAWN
HOURS TODAY...SLOWLY RETREATING EASTWARD.

EXPECTING A SLOW DISSOLVING OF THE GRADUALLY LIFTING
STRATOCUMULUS...LAST TO VACATE THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES THIS
EVENING...JUST IN TIME FOR THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
TEMPERS THE OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AFTER A CHILLY DAY TODAY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. SOME FRONTOGENESIS
ARRIVES OVER THE TUG VALLEY AFTER 09Z FRIDAY...SO HAVE STARTED THE
POPS AGAIN AROUND THAT TIME. MAY TAKE A LITTLE TIME TO RESATURATE
THE LOWEST LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL KEEP LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE GOOD CHANCE FOR UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW DEPENDING ON SHOWER PLACEMENT AND
TIMING. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS ARE ONCE AGAIN THE FAVORED AREAS DUE TO
THE TOPOGRAPHY ENHANCEMENT.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGS HIGH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE TEENS SATURDAY AND THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS...SOME PLACES
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUB-ZERO DEGREES FAHRENHEIT ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS APPROACHING -30 F IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FROM RALEIGH
COUNTY...NORTH TO RANDOLPH...POCAHONTAS...UPSHUR...BARBOUR AND
TAYLOR COUNTIES WITH WIND CHILL VALUES RANGING FROM MINUS 15 TO
MINUS 30 DEGREES.

DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS THE DRY AND COLD AIRMASS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

USED THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH LITTLE TO NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. SOME GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.
THIS WITH ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE...850MB AIR -23C...WILL RESULT IN
RATHER COLD TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY WITH SNOWFALL ON THE
GROUND...AND ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. HAVE KEPT LOW
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIND CHILL ADVISORIES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAINOUS
COUNTIES.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS PERIOD BETWEEN THE MODELS...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS THEMSELVES
APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. GFS INDICATING A
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AREA WIDE...AND
A GULF LOW MOVING EAST ALONG THE COAST...AND STAYING WELL EAST OF
THE AREA...EVENTUALLY BECOMING A NOR`EASTER. ECMWF HOWEVER INDICATES
A STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM SOLUTION...WITH LOW MOVING NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE GULF REGION INTO THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN MORE
OF A WINTRY  MIX SCENARIO TO START EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO
NEW ENGLAND. FOR NOW...IN COORDINATION WITH OTHER OFFICES...DID A
GENERAL BROAD BRUSH OF POPS IN THE EXTENDED...WITH PERIODS OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AT TIMES ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z THURSDAY THRU 18Z FRIDAY...
GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS...BECOMING VFR CEILINGS
19-22Z...THEN SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS AOA 7000 FEET AGL AFTER 00Z.
ELSEWHERE...SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS AOA 4000 FEET AGL...EXCEPT VFR
FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST OHIO.
WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 04Z...WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLY ARRIVING IN MAINLY
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA BY 12Z FRIDAY.

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...RAPIDLY BECOMING MVFR IN GENERAL LIGHT SNOW AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER DISTURBANCE RACES EASTWARD...WITH HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS BY 18Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS MAY END QUICKER
THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EST 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/26
NEAR TERM...ARJ/JMV/26
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JMV




000
FXUS61 KRLX 111819
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
119 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN LATER TODAY. SNOW SHOWERS PICK UP AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT PLOWS
THROUGH THE AREA GIVING EVEN COLDER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1015 AM. UPDATED TO EXPIRE WIND CHILL FOR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
KEPT SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...BUT WILL LIKELY CANCEL REMAINING ADVISORY THERE ON
AFTERNOON PACKAGE. OTHERWISE...A BIT MORE SUNSHINE MOST AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON.

615 AM UPDATE...
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
NICHOLAS...WEBSTER...UPSHUR AND BARBOUR COUNTIES AT 600 AM. THE
REST OF FORECAST REMAINS REPRESENTATIVE OF THE EXPECTED
CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
545 AM UPDATE... SNOW SHOWERS STILL LINGER...BUT COVERAGE IS STEADILY
DECREASING. KEEPING THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA THIS MORNING...AND STILL A BIT HIGHER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STILL GETTING A FEW ISOLATED BANDS OF SNOW TRACKING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE VALLEY...AND ALSO PERSISTING IN THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE
EXTENDED THE CWA WIDE LOW POPS BECAUSE OF THIS THROUGH THE DAWN
HOURS TODAY...SLOWLY RETREATING EASTWARD.

EXPECTING A SLOW DISSOLVING OF THE GRADUALLY LIFTING
STRATOCUMULUS...LAST TO VACATE THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES THIS
EVENING...JUST IN TIME FOR THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
TEMPERS THE OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AFTER A CHILLY DAY TODAY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. SOME FRONTOGENESIS
ARRIVES OVER THE TUG VALLEY AFTER 09Z FRIDAY...SO HAVE STARTED THE
POPS AGAIN AROUND THAT TIME. MAY TAKE A LITTLE TIME TO RESATURATE
THE LOWEST LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL KEEP LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE GOOD CHANCE FOR UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW DEPENDING ON SHOWER PLACEMENT AND
TIMING. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS ARE ONCE AGAIN THE FAVORED AREAS DUE TO
THE TOPOGRAPHY ENHANCEMENT.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGS HIGH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE TEENS SATURDAY AND THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS...SOME PLACES
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUB-ZERO DEGREES FAHRENHEIT ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS APPROACHING -30 F IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FROM RALEIGH
COUNTY...NORTH TO RANDOLPH...POCAHONTAS...UPSHUR...BARBOUR AND
TAYLOR COUNTIES WITH WIND CHILL VALUES RANGING FROM MINUS 15 TO
MINUS 30 DEGREES.

DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS THE DRY AND COLD AIRMASS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

USED THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH LITTLE TO NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. SOME GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.
THIS WITH ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE...850MB AIR -23C...WILL RESULT IN
RATHER COLD TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY WITH SNOWFALL ON THE
GROUND...AND ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. HAVE KEPT LOW
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIND CHILL ADVISORIES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAINOUS
COUNTIES.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS PERIOD BETWEEN THE MODELS...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS THEMSELVES
APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. GFS INDICATING A
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AREA WIDE...AND
A GULF LOW MOVING EAST ALONG THE COAST...AND STAYING WELL EAST OF
THE AREA...EVENTUALLY BECOMING A NOR`EASTER. ECMWF HOWEVER INDICATES
A STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM SOLUTION...WITH LOW MOVING NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE GULF REGION INTO THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN MORE
OF A WINTRY  MIX SCENARIO TO START EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO
NEW ENGLAND. FOR NOW...IN COORDINATION WITH OTHER OFFICES...DID A
GENERAL BROAD BRUSH OF POPS IN THE EXTENDED...WITH PERIODS OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AT TIMES ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z THURSDAY THRU 18Z FRIDAY...
GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS...BECOMING VFR CEILINGS
19-22Z...THEN SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS AOA 7000 FEET AGL AFTER 00Z.
ELSEWHERE...SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS AOA 4000 FEET AGL...EXCEPT VFR
FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST OHIO.
WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 04Z...WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLY ARRIVING IN MAINLY
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA BY 12Z FRIDAY.

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...RAPIDLY BECOMING MVFR IN GENERAL LIGHT SNOW AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER DISTURBANCE RACES EASTWARD...WITH HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS BY 18Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS MAY END QUICKER
THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EST 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ046-
     047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/26
NEAR TERM...ARJ/JMV/26
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JMV




000
FXUS61 KRLX 111610
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1110 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN LATER TODAY. SNOW SHOWERS PICK UP AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT PLOWS
THROUGH THE AREA GIVING EVEN COLDER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1015 AM. UPDATED TO EXPIRE WIND CHILL FOR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
KEPT SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...BUT WILL LIKELY CANCEL REMAINING ADVISORY THERE ON
AFTERNOON PACKAGE. OTHERWISE...A BIT MORE SUNSHINE MOST AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON.

615 AM UPDATE...
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
NICHOLAS...WEBSTER...UPSHUR AND BARBOUR COUNTIES AT 600 AM. THE
REST OF FORECAST REMAINS REPRESENTATIVE OF THE EXPECTED
CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
545 AM UPDATE... SNOW SHOWERS STILL LINGER...BUT COVERAGE IS STEADILY
DECREASING. KEEPING THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA THIS MORNING...AND STILL A BIT HIGHER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STILL GETTING A FEW ISOLATED BANDS OF SNOW TRACKING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE VALLEY...AND ALSO PERSISTING IN THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE
EXTENDED THE CWA WIDE LOW POPS BECAUSE OF THIS THROUGH THE DAWN
HOURS TODAY...SLOWLY RETREATING EASTWARD.

EXPECTING A SLOW DISSOLVING OF THE GRADUALLY LIFTING
STRATOCUMULUS...LAST TO VACATE THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES THIS
EVENING...JUST IN TIME FOR THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
TEMPERS THE OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AFTER A CHILLY DAY TODAY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. SOME FRONTOGENESIS
ARRIVES OVER THE TUG VALLEY AFTER 09Z FRIDAY...SO HAVE STARTED THE
POPS AGAIN AROUND THAT TIME. MAY TAKE A LITTLE TIME TO RESATURATE
THE LOWEST LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL KEEP LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE GOOD CHANCE FOR UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW DEPENDING ON SHOWER PLACEMENT AND
TIMING. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS ARE ONCE AGAIN THE FAVORED AREAS DUE TO
THE TOPOGRAPHY ENHANCEMENT.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGS HIGH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE TEENS SATURDAY AND THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS...SOME PLACES
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUB-ZERO DEGREES FAHRENHEIT ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS APPROACHING -30 F IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FROM RALEIGH
COUNTY...NORTH TO RANDOLPH...POCAHONTAS...UPSHUR...BARBOUR AND
TAYLOR COUNTIES WITH WIND CHILL VALUES RANGING FROM MINUS 15 TO
MINUS 30 DEGREES.

DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS THE DRY AND COLD AIRMASS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

USED THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH LITTLE TO NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. SOME GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.
THIS WITH ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE...850MB AIR -23C...WILL RESULT IN
RATHER COLD TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY WITH SNOWFALL ON THE
GROUND...AND ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. HAVE KEPT LOW
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIND CHILL ADVISORIES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAINOUS
COUNTIES.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS PERIOD BETWEEN THE MODELS...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS THEMSELVES
APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. GFS INDICATING A
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AREA WIDE...AND
A GULF LOW MOVING EAST ALONG THE COAST...AND STAYING WELL EAST OF
THE AREA...EVENTUALLY BECOMING A NOR`EASTER. ECMWF HOWEVER INDICATES
A STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM SOLUTION...WITH LOW MOVING NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE GULF REGION INTO THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN MORE
OF A WINTRY  MIX SCENARIO TO START EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO
NEW ENGLAND. FOR NOW...IN COORDINATION WITH OTHER OFFICES...DID A
GENERAL BROAD BRUSH OF POPS IN THE EXTENDED...WITH PERIODS OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AT TIMES ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
16Z THURDAY THRU 12Z FRIDAY...
GENERALLY MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN
MOUNTAINS...BECOMING VFR CEILINGS 19-22Z...THEN SCT VFR CLOUDS
AFTER 00Z. ELSEWHERE...SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS AOA 6000 FEET AGL THRU
THE PERIOD. WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE JUST AFTER
06Z FRIDAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST ...LATER TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS MAY END QUICKER
THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EST 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ046-
     047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/26
NEAR TERM...ARJ/JMV/26
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JMV/26




000
FXUS61 KRLX 111610
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1110 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN LATER TODAY. SNOW SHOWERS PICK UP AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT PLOWS
THROUGH THE AREA GIVING EVEN COLDER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1015 AM. UPDATED TO EXPIRE WIND CHILL FOR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
KEPT SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...BUT WILL LIKELY CANCEL REMAINING ADVISORY THERE ON
AFTERNOON PACKAGE. OTHERWISE...A BIT MORE SUNSHINE MOST AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON.

615 AM UPDATE...
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
NICHOLAS...WEBSTER...UPSHUR AND BARBOUR COUNTIES AT 600 AM. THE
REST OF FORECAST REMAINS REPRESENTATIVE OF THE EXPECTED
CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
545 AM UPDATE... SNOW SHOWERS STILL LINGER...BUT COVERAGE IS STEADILY
DECREASING. KEEPING THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA THIS MORNING...AND STILL A BIT HIGHER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STILL GETTING A FEW ISOLATED BANDS OF SNOW TRACKING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE VALLEY...AND ALSO PERSISTING IN THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE
EXTENDED THE CWA WIDE LOW POPS BECAUSE OF THIS THROUGH THE DAWN
HOURS TODAY...SLOWLY RETREATING EASTWARD.

EXPECTING A SLOW DISSOLVING OF THE GRADUALLY LIFTING
STRATOCUMULUS...LAST TO VACATE THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES THIS
EVENING...JUST IN TIME FOR THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
TEMPERS THE OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AFTER A CHILLY DAY TODAY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. SOME FRONTOGENESIS
ARRIVES OVER THE TUG VALLEY AFTER 09Z FRIDAY...SO HAVE STARTED THE
POPS AGAIN AROUND THAT TIME. MAY TAKE A LITTLE TIME TO RESATURATE
THE LOWEST LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL KEEP LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE GOOD CHANCE FOR UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW DEPENDING ON SHOWER PLACEMENT AND
TIMING. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS ARE ONCE AGAIN THE FAVORED AREAS DUE TO
THE TOPOGRAPHY ENHANCEMENT.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGS HIGH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE TEENS SATURDAY AND THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS...SOME PLACES
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUB-ZERO DEGREES FAHRENHEIT ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS APPROACHING -30 F IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FROM RALEIGH
COUNTY...NORTH TO RANDOLPH...POCAHONTAS...UPSHUR...BARBOUR AND
TAYLOR COUNTIES WITH WIND CHILL VALUES RANGING FROM MINUS 15 TO
MINUS 30 DEGREES.

DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS THE DRY AND COLD AIRMASS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

USED THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH LITTLE TO NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. SOME GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.
THIS WITH ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE...850MB AIR -23C...WILL RESULT IN
RATHER COLD TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY WITH SNOWFALL ON THE
GROUND...AND ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. HAVE KEPT LOW
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIND CHILL ADVISORIES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAINOUS
COUNTIES.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS PERIOD BETWEEN THE MODELS...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS THEMSELVES
APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. GFS INDICATING A
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AREA WIDE...AND
A GULF LOW MOVING EAST ALONG THE COAST...AND STAYING WELL EAST OF
THE AREA...EVENTUALLY BECOMING A NOR`EASTER. ECMWF HOWEVER INDICATES
A STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM SOLUTION...WITH LOW MOVING NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE GULF REGION INTO THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN MORE
OF A WINTRY  MIX SCENARIO TO START EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO
NEW ENGLAND. FOR NOW...IN COORDINATION WITH OTHER OFFICES...DID A
GENERAL BROAD BRUSH OF POPS IN THE EXTENDED...WITH PERIODS OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AT TIMES ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
16Z THURDAY THRU 12Z FRIDAY...
GENERALLY MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN
MOUNTAINS...BECOMING VFR CEILINGS 19-22Z...THEN SCT VFR CLOUDS
AFTER 00Z. ELSEWHERE...SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS AOA 6000 FEET AGL THRU
THE PERIOD. WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE JUST AFTER
06Z FRIDAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST ...LATER TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS MAY END QUICKER
THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EST 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ046-
     047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/26
NEAR TERM...ARJ/JMV/26
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JMV/26




000
FXUS61 KRLX 111119
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
619 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS PICK UP AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT PLOWS THROUGH THE
AREA GIVING EVEN COLDER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
615 AM UPDATE...
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
NICHOLAS...WEBSTER...UPSHUR AND BARBOUR COUNTIES AT 600 AM. THE
REST OF FORECAST REMAINS REPRESENTATIVE OF THE EXPECTED
CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
545 AM UPDATE... SNOW SHOWERS STILL LINGER...BUT COVERAGE IS STEADILY
DECREASING. KEEPING THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA THIS MORNING...AND STILL A BIT HIGHER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STILL GETTING A FEW ISOLATED BANDS OF SNOW TRACKING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE VALLEY...AND ALSO PERSISTING IN THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE
EXTENDED THE CWA WIDE LOW POPS BECAUSE OF THIS THROUGH THE DAWN
HOURS TODAY...SLOWLY RETREATING EASTWARD.

EXPECTING A SLOW DISSOLVING OF THE GRADUALLY LIFTING
STRATOCUMULUS...LAST TO VACATE THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES THIS
EVENING...JUST IN TIME FOR THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
TEMPERS THE OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AFTER A CHILLY DAY TODAY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. SOME FRONTOGENESIS
ARRIVES OVER THE TUG VALLEY AFTER 09Z FRIDAY...SO HAVE STARTED THE
POPS AGAIN AROUND THAT TIME. MAY TAKE A LITTLE TIME TO RESATURATE
THE LOWEST LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL KEEP LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE GOOD CHANCE FOR UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW DEPENDING ON SHOWER PLACEMENT AND
TIMING. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS ARE ONCE AGAIN THE FAVORED AREAS DUE TO
THE TOPOGRAPHY ENHANCEMENT.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGS HIGH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE TEENS SATURDAY AND THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS...SOME PLACES
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUB-ZERO DEGREES FAHRENHEIT ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS APPROACHING -30 F IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FROM RALEIGH
COUNTY...NORTH TO RANDOLPH...POCAHONTAS...UPSHUR...BARBOUR AND
TAYLOR COUNTIES WITH WIND CHILL VALUES RANGING FROM MINUS 15 TO
MINUS 30 DEGREES.

DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS THE DRY AND COLD AIRMASS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

USED THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH LITTLE TO NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. SOME GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.
THIS WITH ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE...850MB AIR -23C...WILL RESULT IN
RATHER COLD TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY WITH SNOWFALL ON THE
GROUND...AND ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. HAVE KEPT LOW
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIND CHILL ADVISORIES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAINOUS
COUNTIES.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS PERIOD BETWEEN THE MODELS...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS THEMSELVES
APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. GFS INDICATING A
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AREA WIDE...AND
A GULF LOW MOVING EAST ALONG THE COAST...AND STAYING WELL EAST OF
THE AREA...EVENTUALLY BECOMING A NOR`EASTER. ECMWF HOWEVER INDICATES
A STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM SOLUTION...WITH LOW MOVING NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE GULF REGION INTO THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN MORE
OF A WINTRY  MIX SCENARIO TO START EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO
NEW ENGLAND. FOR NOW...IN COORDINATION WITH OTHER OFFICES...DID A
GENERAL BROAD BRUSH OF POPS IN THE EXTENDED...WITH PERIODS OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AT TIMES ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AVIATION CONDITIONS TO EVENTUALLY BECOME VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT STUBBORN SNOW SHOWERS MAY STILL PLAGUE A FEW SITES
OVER THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. NOT EXPECTING
ANY IFR IN THE VISIBILITIES AT THIS POINT...WITH LARGELY VERY
LIGHT SNOW FALLING OVER THE EASTERN TERMINALS.

ONCE THE LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS FINALLY DISSIPATES...MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE...LATER TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS MAY END QUICKER
THAN FORECAST TODAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               THU 02/11/16
UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EST 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ046-
     047.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ046-
     047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/26
NEAR TERM...ARJ/26
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS61 KRLX 111033
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
533 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS PICK UP AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT PLOWS
THROUGH THE AREA GIVING EVEN COLDER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
545 AM UPDATE...
SNOW SHOWERS STILL LINGER...BUT COVERAGE IS STEADILY
DECREASING. KEEPING THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA THIS MORNING...AND STILL A BIT HIGHER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STILL GETTING A FEW ISOLATED BANDS OF SNOW TRACKING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE VALLEY...AND ALSO PERSISTING IN THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE
EXTENDED THE CWA WIDE LOW POPS BECAUSE OF THIS THROUGH THE DAWN
HOURS TODAY...SLOWLY RETREATING EASTWARD.

EXPECTING A SLOW DISSOLVING OF THE GRADUALLY LIFTING
STRATOCUMULUS...LAST TO VACATE THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES THIS
EVENING...JUST IN TIME FOR THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
TEMPERS THE OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AFTER A CHILLY DAY TODAY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. SOME FRONTOGENESIS
ARRIVES OVER THE TUG VALLEY AFTER 09Z FRIDAY...SO HAVE STARTED THE
POPS AGAIN AROUND THAT TIME. MAY TAKE A LITTLE TIME TO RESATURATE
THE LOWEST LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL KEEP LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE GOOD CHANCE FOR UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW DEPENDING ON SHOWER PLACEMENT AND
TIMING. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS ARE ONCE AGAIN THE FAVORED AREAS DUE TO
THE TOPOGRAPHY ENHANCEMENT.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGS HIGH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE TEENS SATURDAY AND THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS...SOME PLACES
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUB-ZERO DEGREES FAHRENHEIT ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS APPROACHING -30 F IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FROM RALEIGH
COUNTY...NORTH TO RANDOLPH...POCAHONTAS...UPSHUR...BARBOUR AND
TAYLOR COUNTIES WITH WIND CHILL VALUES RANGING FROM MINUS 15 TO
MINUS 30 DEGREES.

DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS THE DRY AND COLD AIRMASS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

USED THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH LITTLE TO NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. SOME GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.
THIS WITH ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE...850MB AIR -23C...WILL RESULT IN
RATHER COLD TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY WITH SNOWFALL ON THE
GROUND...AND ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. HAVE KEPT LOW
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIND CHILL ADVISORIES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAINOUS
COUNTIES.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS PERIOD BETWEEN THE MODELS...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS THEMSELVES
APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. GFS INDICATING A
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AREA WIDE...AND
A GULF LOW MOVING EAST ALONG THE COAST...AND STAYING WELL EAST OF
THE AREA...EVENTUALLY BECOMING A NOR`EASTER. ECMWF HOWEVER INDICATES
A STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM SOLUTION...WITH LOW MOVING NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE GULF REGION INTO THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN MORE
OF A WINTRY  MIX SCENARIO TO START EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO
NEW ENGLAND. FOR NOW...IN COORDINATION WITH OTHER OFFICES...DID A
GENERAL BROAD BRUSH OF POPS IN THE EXTENDED...WITH PERIODS OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AT TIMES ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AVIATION CONDITIONS TO EVENTUALLY BECOME VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT STUBBORN SNOW SHOWERS MAY STILL PLAGUE A FEW SITES
OVER THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. NOT EXPECTING
ANY IFR IN THE VISIBILITIES AT THIS POINT...WITH LARGELY VERY
LIGHT SNOW FALLING OVER THE EASTERN TERMINALS.

ONCE THE LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS FINALLY DISSIPATES...MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE...LATER TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS MAY END QUICKER
THAN FORECAST TODAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               THU 02/11/16
UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EST 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ037>040.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ046-
     047.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ046-
     047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS61 KRLX 110823
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
323 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS PICK UP AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT PLOWS
THROUGH THE AREA GIVING EVEN COLDER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STILL GETTING A FEW ISOLATED BANDS OF SNOW TRACKING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE VALLEY...AND ALSO PERSISTING IN THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE
EXTENDED THE CWA WIDE LOW POPS BECAUSE OF THIS THROUGH THE DAWN
HOURS TODAY...SLOWLY RETREATING EASTWARD.

EXPECTING A SLOW DISSOLVING OF THE GRADUALLY LIFTING
STRATOCUMULUS...LAST TO VACATE THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES THIS
EVENING...JUST IN TIME FOR THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
TEMPERS THE OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AFTER A CHILLY DAY TODAY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. SOME FRONTOGENESIS
ARRIVES OVER THE TUG VALLEY AFTER 09Z FRIDAY...SO HAVE STARTED THE
POPS AGAIN AROUND THAT TIME. MAY TAKE A LITTLE TIME TO RESATURATE
THE LOWEST LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL KEEP LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE GOOD CHANCE FOR UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW DEPENDING ON SHOWER PLACEMENT AND
TIMING. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS ARE ONCE AGAIN THE FAVORED AREAS DUE TO
THE TOPOGRAPHY ENHANCEMENT.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGS HIGH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE TEENS SATURDAY AND THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS...SOME PLACES
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUB-ZERO DEGREES FAHRENHEIT ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS APPROACHING -30 F IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FROM RALEIGH
COUNTY...NORTH TO RANDOLPH...POCAHONTAS...UPSHUR...BARBOUR AND
TAYLOR COUNTIES WITH WIND CHILL VALUES RANGING FROM MINUS 15 TO
MINUS 30 DEGREES.

DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS THE DRY AND COLD AIRMASS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

USED THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH LITTLE TO NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. SOME GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.
THIS WITH ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE...850MB AIR -23C...WILL RESULT IN
RATHER COLD TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY WITH SNOWFALL ON THE
GROUND...AND ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. HAVE KEPT LOW
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIND CHILL ADVISORIES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAINOUS
COUNTIES.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS PERIOD BETWEEN THE MODELS...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS THEMSELVES
APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. GFS INDICATING A
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AREA WIDE...AND
A GULF LOW MOVING EAST ALONG THE COAST...AND STAYING WELL EAST OF
THE AREA...EVENTUALLY BECOMING A NOR`EASTER. ECMWF HOWEVER INDICATES
A STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM SOLUTION...WITH LOW MOVING NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE GULF REGION INTO THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN MORE
OF A WINTRY  MIX SCENARIO TO START EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO
NEW ENGLAND. FOR NOW...IN COORDINATION WITH OTHER OFFICES...DID A
GENERAL BROAD BRUSH OF POPS IN THE EXTENDED...WITH PERIODS OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AT TIMES ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS TO END OVERNIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS...BKW...AND THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS INCLUDING EKN AND
CKB JUST TO THE WEST...LATER IN THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. BASED
ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS...IFR SHOULD BE ON THE WANE...BUT STILL
SEEING 2SM SNOW IN BKW. WILL KEEP THIS GOING FOR A FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE...VFR IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS SLOWLY
LIFTS ABOVE 3KFT AND DISSOLVES OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ENDING OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...ALONG
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS...MAY BE SLOWER OR POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT
FASTER THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   THU 02/11/16
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
OUR NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES ON FRIDAY AND IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ037>040.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ046-
     047.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ046-
     047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS61 KRLX 110755
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
255 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS PICK UP AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT PLOWS
THROUGH THE AREA GIVING EVEN COLDER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STILL GETTING A FEW ISOLATED BANDS OF SNOW TRACKING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE VALLEY...AND ALSO PERSISTING IN THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE
EXTENDED THE CWA WIDE LOW POPS BECAUSE OF THIS THROUGH THE DAWN
HOURS TODAY...SLOWLY RETREATING EASTWARD.

EXPECTING A SLOW DISSOLVING OF THE GRADUALLY LIFTING
STRATOCUMULUS...LAST TO VACATE THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES THIS
EVENING...JUST IN TIME FOR THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
TEMPERS THE OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AFTER A CHILLY DAY TODAY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. SOME FRONTOGENESIS
ARRIVES OVER THE TUG VALLEY AFTER 09Z FRIDAY...SO HAVE STARTED THE
POPS AGAIN AROUND THAT TIME. MAY TAKE A LITTLE TIME TO RESATURATE
THE LOWEST LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE SUCCUMBS TO AN ARCTIC FRONT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A RETURN TO THE OMNIPRESENT
SNOW SHOWERS THAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED MOST OF THIS WEEK. WITH
THESE SHOWERS EXPECT ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES DEPENDING ON SHOWER
PLACEMENT AND TIMING. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS ARE ONCE AGAIN THE
FAVORED AREAS DUE TO THE TOPOGRAPHY ENHANCEMENT.

TEMPERATURES PLUMMET IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...IN WHAT LIKELY
WILL BE A WIDESPREAD SUB-ZERO FAHRENHEIT EVENT WITH WIND CHILLS
APPROACHING -30 F IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH LITTLE TO NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. SOME GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.
THIS WITH ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE...850MB AIR -23C...WILL RESULT IN
RATHER COLD TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY WITH SNOWFALL ON THE
GROUND...AND ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. HAVE KEPT LOW
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIND CHILL ADVISORIES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAINOUS
COUNTIES.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS PERIOD BETWEEN THE MODELS...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS THEMSELVES
APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. GFS INDICATING A
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AREA WIDE...AND
A GULF LOW MOVING EAST ALONG THE COAST...AND STAYING WELL EAST OF
THE AREA...EVENTUALLY BECOMING A NOR`EASTER. ECMWF HOWEVER INDICATES
A STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM SOLUTION...WITH LOW MOVING NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE GULF REGION INTO THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN MORE
OF A WINTRY  MIX SCENARIO TO START EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO
NEW ENGLAND. FOR NOW...IN COORDINATION WITH OTHER OFFICES...DID A
GENERAL BROAD BRUSH OF POPS IN THE EXTENDED...WITH PERIODS OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AT TIMES ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS TO END OVERNIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS...BKW...AND THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS INCLUDING EKN AND
CKB JUST TO THE WEST...LATER IN THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. BASED
ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS...IFR SHOULD BE ON THE WANE...BUT STILL
SEEING 2SM SNOW IN BKW. WILL KEEP THIS GOING FOR A FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE...VFR IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS SLOWLY
LIFTS ABOVE 3KFT AND DISSOLVES OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ENDING OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...ALONG
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS...MAY BE SLOWER OR POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT
FASTER THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   THU 02/11/16
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
OUR NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES ON FRIDAY AND IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ037>040.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ046-
     047.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ046-
     047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...26



000
FXUS61 KRLX 110755
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
255 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS PICK UP AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT PLOWS
THROUGH THE AREA GIVING EVEN COLDER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STILL GETTING A FEW ISOLATED BANDS OF SNOW TRACKING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE VALLEY...AND ALSO PERSISTING IN THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE
EXTENDED THE CWA WIDE LOW POPS BECAUSE OF THIS THROUGH THE DAWN
HOURS TODAY...SLOWLY RETREATING EASTWARD.

EXPECTING A SLOW DISSOLVING OF THE GRADUALLY LIFTING
STRATOCUMULUS...LAST TO VACATE THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES THIS
EVENING...JUST IN TIME FOR THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
TEMPERS THE OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AFTER A CHILLY DAY TODAY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. SOME FRONTOGENESIS
ARRIVES OVER THE TUG VALLEY AFTER 09Z FRIDAY...SO HAVE STARTED THE
POPS AGAIN AROUND THAT TIME. MAY TAKE A LITTLE TIME TO RESATURATE
THE LOWEST LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE SUCCUMBS TO AN ARCTIC FRONT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A RETURN TO THE OMNIPRESENT
SNOW SHOWERS THAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED MOST OF THIS WEEK. WITH
THESE SHOWERS EXPECT ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES DEPENDING ON SHOWER
PLACEMENT AND TIMING. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS ARE ONCE AGAIN THE
FAVORED AREAS DUE TO THE TOPOGRAPHY ENHANCEMENT.

TEMPERATURES PLUMMET IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...IN WHAT LIKELY
WILL BE A WIDESPREAD SUB-ZERO FAHRENHEIT EVENT WITH WIND CHILLS
APPROACHING -30 F IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH LITTLE TO NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. SOME GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.
THIS WITH ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE...850MB AIR -23C...WILL RESULT IN
RATHER COLD TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY WITH SNOWFALL ON THE
GROUND...AND ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. HAVE KEPT LOW
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIND CHILL ADVISORIES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAINOUS
COUNTIES.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS PERIOD BETWEEN THE MODELS...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS THEMSELVES
APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. GFS INDICATING A
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AREA WIDE...AND
A GULF LOW MOVING EAST ALONG THE COAST...AND STAYING WELL EAST OF
THE AREA...EVENTUALLY BECOMING A NOR`EASTER. ECMWF HOWEVER INDICATES
A STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM SOLUTION...WITH LOW MOVING NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE GULF REGION INTO THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN MORE
OF A WINTRY  MIX SCENARIO TO START EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO
NEW ENGLAND. FOR NOW...IN COORDINATION WITH OTHER OFFICES...DID A
GENERAL BROAD BRUSH OF POPS IN THE EXTENDED...WITH PERIODS OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AT TIMES ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS TO END OVERNIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS...BKW...AND THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS INCLUDING EKN AND
CKB JUST TO THE WEST...LATER IN THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. BASED
ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS...IFR SHOULD BE ON THE WANE...BUT STILL
SEEING 2SM SNOW IN BKW. WILL KEEP THIS GOING FOR A FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE...VFR IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS SLOWLY
LIFTS ABOVE 3KFT AND DISSOLVES OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ENDING OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...ALONG
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS...MAY BE SLOWER OR POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT
FASTER THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   THU 02/11/16
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
OUR NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES ON FRIDAY AND IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ037>040.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ046-
     047.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ046-
     047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS61 KRLX 110755
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
255 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS PICK UP AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT PLOWS
THROUGH THE AREA GIVING EVEN COLDER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STILL GETTING A FEW ISOLATED BANDS OF SNOW TRACKING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE VALLEY...AND ALSO PERSISTING IN THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE
EXTENDED THE CWA WIDE LOW POPS BECAUSE OF THIS THROUGH THE DAWN
HOURS TODAY...SLOWLY RETREATING EASTWARD.

EXPECTING A SLOW DISSOLVING OF THE GRADUALLY LIFTING
STRATOCUMULUS...LAST TO VACATE THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES THIS
EVENING...JUST IN TIME FOR THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
TEMPERS THE OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AFTER A CHILLY DAY TODAY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. SOME FRONTOGENESIS
ARRIVES OVER THE TUG VALLEY AFTER 09Z FRIDAY...SO HAVE STARTED THE
POPS AGAIN AROUND THAT TIME. MAY TAKE A LITTLE TIME TO RESATURATE
THE LOWEST LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE SUCCUMBS TO AN ARCTIC FRONT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A RETURN TO THE OMNIPRESENT
SNOW SHOWERS THAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED MOST OF THIS WEEK. WITH
THESE SHOWERS EXPECT ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES DEPENDING ON SHOWER
PLACEMENT AND TIMING. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS ARE ONCE AGAIN THE
FAVORED AREAS DUE TO THE TOPOGRAPHY ENHANCEMENT.

TEMPERATURES PLUMMET IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...IN WHAT LIKELY
WILL BE A WIDESPREAD SUB-ZERO FAHRENHEIT EVENT WITH WIND CHILLS
APPROACHING -30 F IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH LITTLE TO NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. SOME GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.
THIS WITH ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE...850MB AIR -23C...WILL RESULT IN
RATHER COLD TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY WITH SNOWFALL ON THE
GROUND...AND ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. HAVE KEPT LOW
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIND CHILL ADVISORIES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAINOUS
COUNTIES.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS PERIOD BETWEEN THE MODELS...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS THEMSELVES
APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. GFS INDICATING A
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AREA WIDE...AND
A GULF LOW MOVING EAST ALONG THE COAST...AND STAYING WELL EAST OF
THE AREA...EVENTUALLY BECOMING A NOR`EASTER. ECMWF HOWEVER INDICATES
A STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM SOLUTION...WITH LOW MOVING NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE GULF REGION INTO THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN MORE
OF A WINTRY  MIX SCENARIO TO START EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO
NEW ENGLAND. FOR NOW...IN COORDINATION WITH OTHER OFFICES...DID A
GENERAL BROAD BRUSH OF POPS IN THE EXTENDED...WITH PERIODS OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AT TIMES ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS TO END OVERNIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS...BKW...AND THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS INCLUDING EKN AND
CKB JUST TO THE WEST...LATER IN THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. BASED
ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS...IFR SHOULD BE ON THE WANE...BUT STILL
SEEING 2SM SNOW IN BKW. WILL KEEP THIS GOING FOR A FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE...VFR IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS SLOWLY
LIFTS ABOVE 3KFT AND DISSOLVES OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ENDING OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...ALONG
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS...MAY BE SLOWER OR POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT
FASTER THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   THU 02/11/16
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
OUR NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES ON FRIDAY AND IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ037>040.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ046-
     047.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ046-
     047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS61 KRLX 110539
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1239 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY FOR A
LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS PICK UP AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT PLOWS THROUGH THE
AREA GIVING EVEN COLDER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
530 PM UPDATE...JUST MINOR CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON
CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO OTHER
CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW OF DEEPER WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE FINALLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THUS...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST WILL OCCUR. LOOKS
LIKE MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE LOW LANDS...OUTSIDE OF A
FEW LINGERING AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SNOW SHOWERS...WILL
TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL LIMIT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW TONIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ITS WESTERN
UPSLOPE COUNTIES...RANGING FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES....ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ANTICIPATE EXPIRING THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE LOW LANDS AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AT 6 PM THIS
EVENING. ON THURSDAY...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL END BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH JUST LIGHT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN SOME SUNSHINE WILL RETURN TO THE WEST HALF OF
THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
THOUGH...WITH RATHER FRIGID TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THURSDAY...VERY MUCH BELOW NORMAL. GUSTY
WEST WINDS TONIGHT ON THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY THERE FOR TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE SUCCUMBS TO AN ARCTIC FRONT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A RETURN TO THE OMNIPRESENT
SNOW SHOWERS THAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED MOST OF THIS WEEK. WITH
THESE SHOWERS EXPECT ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES DEPENDING ON SHOWER
PLACEMENT AND TIMING. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS ARE ONCE AGAIN THE
FAVORED AREAS DUE TO THE TOPOGRAPHY ENHANCEMENT.

TEMPERATURES PLUMMET IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...IN WHAT LIKELY
WILL BE A WIDESPREAD SUB-ZERO FAHRENHEIT EVENT WITH WIND CHILLS
APPROACHING -30 F IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH LITTLE TO NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. SOME GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.
THIS WITH ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE...850MB AIR -23C...WILL RESULT IN
RATHER COLD TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY WITH SNOWFALL ON THE
GROUND...AND ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. HAVE KEPT LOW
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIND CHILL ADVISORIES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAINOUS
COUNTIES.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS PERIOD BETWEEN THE MODELS...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS THEMSELVES
APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. GFS INDICATING A
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AREA WIDE...AND
A GULF LOW MOVING EAST ALONG THE COAST...AND STAYING WELL EAST OF
THE AREA...EVENTUALLY BECOMING A NOR`EASTER. ECMWF HOWEVER INDICATES
A STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM SOLUTION...WITH LOW MOVING NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE GULF REGION INTO THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN MORE
OF A WINTRY  MIX SCENARIO TO START EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO
NEW ENGLAND. FOR NOW...IN COORDINATION WITH OTHER OFFICES...DID A
GENERAL BROAD BRUSH OF POPS IN THE EXTENDED...WITH PERIODS OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AT TIMES ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS TO END OVERNIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS...BKW...AND THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS INCLUDING EKN AND
CKB JUST TO THE WEST...LATER IN THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. BASED
ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS...IFR SHOULD BE ON THE WANE...BUT STILL
SEEING 2SM SNOW IN BKW. WILL KEEP THIS GOING FOR A FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE...VFR IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS SLOWLY
LIFTS ABOVE 3KFT AND DISSOLVES OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ENDING OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...ALONG
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS...MAY BE SLOWER OR POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT
FASTER THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 THU
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
OUR NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES ON FRIDAY AND IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ037>040.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV/MPK
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...26



000
FXUS61 KRLX 110539
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1239 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY FOR A
LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS PICK UP AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT PLOWS THROUGH THE
AREA GIVING EVEN COLDER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
530 PM UPDATE...JUST MINOR CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON
CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO OTHER
CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW OF DEEPER WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE FINALLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THUS...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST WILL OCCUR. LOOKS
LIKE MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE LOW LANDS...OUTSIDE OF A
FEW LINGERING AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SNOW SHOWERS...WILL
TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL LIMIT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW TONIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ITS WESTERN
UPSLOPE COUNTIES...RANGING FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES....ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ANTICIPATE EXPIRING THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE LOW LANDS AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AT 6 PM THIS
EVENING. ON THURSDAY...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL END BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH JUST LIGHT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN SOME SUNSHINE WILL RETURN TO THE WEST HALF OF
THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
THOUGH...WITH RATHER FRIGID TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THURSDAY...VERY MUCH BELOW NORMAL. GUSTY
WEST WINDS TONIGHT ON THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY THERE FOR TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE SUCCUMBS TO AN ARCTIC FRONT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A RETURN TO THE OMNIPRESENT
SNOW SHOWERS THAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED MOST OF THIS WEEK. WITH
THESE SHOWERS EXPECT ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES DEPENDING ON SHOWER
PLACEMENT AND TIMING. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS ARE ONCE AGAIN THE
FAVORED AREAS DUE TO THE TOPOGRAPHY ENHANCEMENT.

TEMPERATURES PLUMMET IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...IN WHAT LIKELY
WILL BE A WIDESPREAD SUB-ZERO FAHRENHEIT EVENT WITH WIND CHILLS
APPROACHING -30 F IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH LITTLE TO NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. SOME GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.
THIS WITH ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE...850MB AIR -23C...WILL RESULT IN
RATHER COLD TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY WITH SNOWFALL ON THE
GROUND...AND ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. HAVE KEPT LOW
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIND CHILL ADVISORIES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAINOUS
COUNTIES.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS PERIOD BETWEEN THE MODELS...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS THEMSELVES
APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. GFS INDICATING A
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AREA WIDE...AND
A GULF LOW MOVING EAST ALONG THE COAST...AND STAYING WELL EAST OF
THE AREA...EVENTUALLY BECOMING A NOR`EASTER. ECMWF HOWEVER INDICATES
A STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM SOLUTION...WITH LOW MOVING NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE GULF REGION INTO THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN MORE
OF A WINTRY  MIX SCENARIO TO START EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO
NEW ENGLAND. FOR NOW...IN COORDINATION WITH OTHER OFFICES...DID A
GENERAL BROAD BRUSH OF POPS IN THE EXTENDED...WITH PERIODS OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AT TIMES ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS TO END OVERNIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS...BKW...AND THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS INCLUDING EKN AND
CKB JUST TO THE WEST...LATER IN THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. BASED
ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS...IFR SHOULD BE ON THE WANE...BUT STILL
SEEING 2SM SNOW IN BKW. WILL KEEP THIS GOING FOR A FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE...VFR IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS SLOWLY
LIFTS ABOVE 3KFT AND DISSOLVES OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ENDING OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...ALONG
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS...MAY BE SLOWER OR POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT
FASTER THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 THU
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
OUR NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES ON FRIDAY AND IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ037>040.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV/MPK
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS61 KRLX 110539
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1239 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY FOR A
LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS PICK UP AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT PLOWS THROUGH THE
AREA GIVING EVEN COLDER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
530 PM UPDATE...JUST MINOR CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON
CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO OTHER
CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW OF DEEPER WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE FINALLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THUS...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST WILL OCCUR. LOOKS
LIKE MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE LOW LANDS...OUTSIDE OF A
FEW LINGERING AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SNOW SHOWERS...WILL
TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL LIMIT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW TONIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ITS WESTERN
UPSLOPE COUNTIES...RANGING FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES....ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ANTICIPATE EXPIRING THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE LOW LANDS AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AT 6 PM THIS
EVENING. ON THURSDAY...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL END BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH JUST LIGHT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN SOME SUNSHINE WILL RETURN TO THE WEST HALF OF
THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
THOUGH...WITH RATHER FRIGID TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THURSDAY...VERY MUCH BELOW NORMAL. GUSTY
WEST WINDS TONIGHT ON THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY THERE FOR TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE SUCCUMBS TO AN ARCTIC FRONT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A RETURN TO THE OMNIPRESENT
SNOW SHOWERS THAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED MOST OF THIS WEEK. WITH
THESE SHOWERS EXPECT ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES DEPENDING ON SHOWER
PLACEMENT AND TIMING. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS ARE ONCE AGAIN THE
FAVORED AREAS DUE TO THE TOPOGRAPHY ENHANCEMENT.

TEMPERATURES PLUMMET IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...IN WHAT LIKELY
WILL BE A WIDESPREAD SUB-ZERO FAHRENHEIT EVENT WITH WIND CHILLS
APPROACHING -30 F IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH LITTLE TO NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. SOME GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.
THIS WITH ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE...850MB AIR -23C...WILL RESULT IN
RATHER COLD TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY WITH SNOWFALL ON THE
GROUND...AND ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. HAVE KEPT LOW
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIND CHILL ADVISORIES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAINOUS
COUNTIES.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS PERIOD BETWEEN THE MODELS...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS THEMSELVES
APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. GFS INDICATING A
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AREA WIDE...AND
A GULF LOW MOVING EAST ALONG THE COAST...AND STAYING WELL EAST OF
THE AREA...EVENTUALLY BECOMING A NOR`EASTER. ECMWF HOWEVER INDICATES
A STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM SOLUTION...WITH LOW MOVING NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE GULF REGION INTO THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN MORE
OF A WINTRY  MIX SCENARIO TO START EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO
NEW ENGLAND. FOR NOW...IN COORDINATION WITH OTHER OFFICES...DID A
GENERAL BROAD BRUSH OF POPS IN THE EXTENDED...WITH PERIODS OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AT TIMES ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS TO END OVERNIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS...BKW...AND THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS INCLUDING EKN AND
CKB JUST TO THE WEST...LATER IN THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. BASED
ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS...IFR SHOULD BE ON THE WANE...BUT STILL
SEEING 2SM SNOW IN BKW. WILL KEEP THIS GOING FOR A FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE...VFR IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS SLOWLY
LIFTS ABOVE 3KFT AND DISSOLVES OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ENDING OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...ALONG
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS...MAY BE SLOWER OR POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT
FASTER THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 THU
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
OUR NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES ON FRIDAY AND IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ037>040.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV/MPK
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS61 KRLX 102331
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
631 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY FOR A
LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS PICK UP AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT PLOWS THROUGH THE
AREA GIVING EVEN COLDER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
530 PM UPDATE...JUST MINOR CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON
CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO OTHER
CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW OF DEEPER WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE FINALLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THUS...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST WILL OCCUR. LOOKS
LIKE MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE LOW LANDS...OUTSIDE OF A
FEW LINGERING AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SNOW SHOWERS...WILL
TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL LIMIT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW TONIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ITS WESTERN
UPSLOPE COUNTIES...RANGING FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES....ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ANTICIPATE EXPIRING THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE LOW LANDS AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AT 6 PM THIS
EVENING. ON THURSDAY...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL END BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH JUST LIGHT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN SOME SUNSHINE WILL RETURN TO THE WEST HALF OF
THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
THOUGH...WITH RATHER FRIGID TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THURSDAY...VERY MUCH BELOW NORMAL. GUSTY
WEST WINDS TONIGHT ON THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY THERE FOR TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE SUCCUMBS TO AN ARCTIC FRONT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A RETURN TO THE OMNIPRESENT
SNOW SHOWERS THAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED MOST OF THIS WEEK. WITH
THESE SHOWERS EXPECT ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES DEPENDING ON SHOWER
PLACEMENT AND TIMING. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS ARE ONCE AGAIN THE
FAVORED AREAS DUE TO THE TOPOGRAPHY ENHANCEMENT.

TEMPERATURES PLUMMET IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...IN WHAT LIKELY
WILL BE A WIDESPREAD SUB-ZERO FAHRENHEIT EVENT WITH WIND CHILLS
APPROACHING -30 F IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH LITTLE TO NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. SOME GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.
THIS WITH ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE...850MB AIR -23C...WILL RESULT IN
RATHER COLD TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY WITH SNOWFALL ON THE
GROUND...AND ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. HAVE KEPT LOW
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIND CHILL ADVISORIES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAINOUS
COUNTIES.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS PERIOD BETWEEN THE MODELS...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS THEMSELVES
APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. GFS INDICATING A
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AREA WIDE...AND
A GULF LOW MOVING EAST ALONG THE COAST...AND STAYING WELL EAST OF
THE AREA...EVENTUALLY BECOMING A NOR`EASTER. ECMWF HOWEVER INDICATES
A STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM SOLUTION...WITH LOW MOVING NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE GULF REGION INTO THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN MORE
OF A WINTRY  MIX SCENARIO TO START EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO
NEW ENGLAND. FOR NOW...IN COORDINATION WITH OTHER OFFICES...DID A
GENERAL BROAD BRUSH OF POPS IN THE EXTENDED...WITH PERIODS OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AT TIMES ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS ARE DECREASING IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND WILL
EVENTUALLY JUST TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES FROM WEST TO EAST INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY WORKING INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING AND HTS LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN
VFR FOR THE PERIOD. ALL OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE MVFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
TOMORROW.

SOME HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR TO BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE IN MOUNTAINS. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE ALONG RIDGE TOPS WITH DIMINISHING WINDS ELSEWHERE.
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OUT OF THE
REGION AND EVEN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ENDING OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...ALONG
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS...MAY BE SLOWER OR POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT
FASTER THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EST 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
OUR NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES ON FRIDAY AND IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ037>040.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV/MPK
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...MPK




000
FXUS61 KRLX 102331
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
631 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY FOR A
LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS PICK UP AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT PLOWS THROUGH THE
AREA GIVING EVEN COLDER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
530 PM UPDATE...JUST MINOR CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON
CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO OTHER
CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW OF DEEPER WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE FINALLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THUS...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST WILL OCCUR. LOOKS
LIKE MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE LOW LANDS...OUTSIDE OF A
FEW LINGERING AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SNOW SHOWERS...WILL
TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL LIMIT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW TONIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ITS WESTERN
UPSLOPE COUNTIES...RANGING FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES....ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ANTICIPATE EXPIRING THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE LOW LANDS AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AT 6 PM THIS
EVENING. ON THURSDAY...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL END BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH JUST LIGHT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN SOME SUNSHINE WILL RETURN TO THE WEST HALF OF
THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
THOUGH...WITH RATHER FRIGID TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THURSDAY...VERY MUCH BELOW NORMAL. GUSTY
WEST WINDS TONIGHT ON THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY THERE FOR TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE SUCCUMBS TO AN ARCTIC FRONT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A RETURN TO THE OMNIPRESENT
SNOW SHOWERS THAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED MOST OF THIS WEEK. WITH
THESE SHOWERS EXPECT ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES DEPENDING ON SHOWER
PLACEMENT AND TIMING. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS ARE ONCE AGAIN THE
FAVORED AREAS DUE TO THE TOPOGRAPHY ENHANCEMENT.

TEMPERATURES PLUMMET IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...IN WHAT LIKELY
WILL BE A WIDESPREAD SUB-ZERO FAHRENHEIT EVENT WITH WIND CHILLS
APPROACHING -30 F IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH LITTLE TO NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. SOME GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.
THIS WITH ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE...850MB AIR -23C...WILL RESULT IN
RATHER COLD TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY WITH SNOWFALL ON THE
GROUND...AND ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. HAVE KEPT LOW
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIND CHILL ADVISORIES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAINOUS
COUNTIES.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS PERIOD BETWEEN THE MODELS...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS THEMSELVES
APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. GFS INDICATING A
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AREA WIDE...AND
A GULF LOW MOVING EAST ALONG THE COAST...AND STAYING WELL EAST OF
THE AREA...EVENTUALLY BECOMING A NOR`EASTER. ECMWF HOWEVER INDICATES
A STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM SOLUTION...WITH LOW MOVING NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE GULF REGION INTO THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN MORE
OF A WINTRY  MIX SCENARIO TO START EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO
NEW ENGLAND. FOR NOW...IN COORDINATION WITH OTHER OFFICES...DID A
GENERAL BROAD BRUSH OF POPS IN THE EXTENDED...WITH PERIODS OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AT TIMES ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS ARE DECREASING IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND WILL
EVENTUALLY JUST TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES FROM WEST TO EAST INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY WORKING INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING AND HTS LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN
VFR FOR THE PERIOD. ALL OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE MVFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
TOMORROW.

SOME HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR TO BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE IN MOUNTAINS. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE ALONG RIDGE TOPS WITH DIMINISHING WINDS ELSEWHERE.
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OUT OF THE
REGION AND EVEN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ENDING OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...ALONG
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS...MAY BE SLOWER OR POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT
FASTER THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EST 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
OUR NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES ON FRIDAY AND IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ037>040.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV/MPK
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...MPK




000
FXUS61 KRLX 102331
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
631 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY FOR A
LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS PICK UP AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT PLOWS THROUGH THE
AREA GIVING EVEN COLDER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
530 PM UPDATE...JUST MINOR CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON
CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO OTHER
CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW OF DEEPER WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE FINALLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THUS...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST WILL OCCUR. LOOKS
LIKE MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE LOW LANDS...OUTSIDE OF A
FEW LINGERING AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SNOW SHOWERS...WILL
TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL LIMIT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW TONIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ITS WESTERN
UPSLOPE COUNTIES...RANGING FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES....ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ANTICIPATE EXPIRING THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE LOW LANDS AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AT 6 PM THIS
EVENING. ON THURSDAY...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL END BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH JUST LIGHT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN SOME SUNSHINE WILL RETURN TO THE WEST HALF OF
THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
THOUGH...WITH RATHER FRIGID TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THURSDAY...VERY MUCH BELOW NORMAL. GUSTY
WEST WINDS TONIGHT ON THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY THERE FOR TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE SUCCUMBS TO AN ARCTIC FRONT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A RETURN TO THE OMNIPRESENT
SNOW SHOWERS THAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED MOST OF THIS WEEK. WITH
THESE SHOWERS EXPECT ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES DEPENDING ON SHOWER
PLACEMENT AND TIMING. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS ARE ONCE AGAIN THE
FAVORED AREAS DUE TO THE TOPOGRAPHY ENHANCEMENT.

TEMPERATURES PLUMMET IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...IN WHAT LIKELY
WILL BE A WIDESPREAD SUB-ZERO FAHRENHEIT EVENT WITH WIND CHILLS
APPROACHING -30 F IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH LITTLE TO NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. SOME GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.
THIS WITH ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE...850MB AIR -23C...WILL RESULT IN
RATHER COLD TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY WITH SNOWFALL ON THE
GROUND...AND ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. HAVE KEPT LOW
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIND CHILL ADVISORIES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAINOUS
COUNTIES.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS PERIOD BETWEEN THE MODELS...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS THEMSELVES
APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. GFS INDICATING A
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AREA WIDE...AND
A GULF LOW MOVING EAST ALONG THE COAST...AND STAYING WELL EAST OF
THE AREA...EVENTUALLY BECOMING A NOR`EASTER. ECMWF HOWEVER INDICATES
A STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM SOLUTION...WITH LOW MOVING NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE GULF REGION INTO THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN MORE
OF A WINTRY  MIX SCENARIO TO START EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO
NEW ENGLAND. FOR NOW...IN COORDINATION WITH OTHER OFFICES...DID A
GENERAL BROAD BRUSH OF POPS IN THE EXTENDED...WITH PERIODS OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AT TIMES ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS ARE DECREASING IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND WILL
EVENTUALLY JUST TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES FROM WEST TO EAST INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY WORKING INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING AND HTS LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN
VFR FOR THE PERIOD. ALL OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE MVFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
TOMORROW.

SOME HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR TO BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE IN MOUNTAINS. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE ALONG RIDGE TOPS WITH DIMINISHING WINDS ELSEWHERE.
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OUT OF THE
REGION AND EVEN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ENDING OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...ALONG
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS...MAY BE SLOWER OR POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT
FASTER THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EST 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
OUR NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES ON FRIDAY AND IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ037>040.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV/MPK
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...MPK




000
FXUS61 KRLX 102331
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
631 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY FOR A
LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS PICK UP AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT PLOWS THROUGH THE
AREA GIVING EVEN COLDER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
530 PM UPDATE...JUST MINOR CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON
CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO OTHER
CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW OF DEEPER WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE FINALLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THUS...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST WILL OCCUR. LOOKS
LIKE MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE LOW LANDS...OUTSIDE OF A
FEW LINGERING AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SNOW SHOWERS...WILL
TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL LIMIT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW TONIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ITS WESTERN
UPSLOPE COUNTIES...RANGING FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES....ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ANTICIPATE EXPIRING THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE LOW LANDS AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AT 6 PM THIS
EVENING. ON THURSDAY...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL END BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH JUST LIGHT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN SOME SUNSHINE WILL RETURN TO THE WEST HALF OF
THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
THOUGH...WITH RATHER FRIGID TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THURSDAY...VERY MUCH BELOW NORMAL. GUSTY
WEST WINDS TONIGHT ON THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY THERE FOR TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE SUCCUMBS TO AN ARCTIC FRONT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A RETURN TO THE OMNIPRESENT
SNOW SHOWERS THAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED MOST OF THIS WEEK. WITH
THESE SHOWERS EXPECT ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES DEPENDING ON SHOWER
PLACEMENT AND TIMING. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS ARE ONCE AGAIN THE
FAVORED AREAS DUE TO THE TOPOGRAPHY ENHANCEMENT.

TEMPERATURES PLUMMET IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...IN WHAT LIKELY
WILL BE A WIDESPREAD SUB-ZERO FAHRENHEIT EVENT WITH WIND CHILLS
APPROACHING -30 F IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH LITTLE TO NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. SOME GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.
THIS WITH ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE...850MB AIR -23C...WILL RESULT IN
RATHER COLD TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY WITH SNOWFALL ON THE
GROUND...AND ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. HAVE KEPT LOW
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIND CHILL ADVISORIES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAINOUS
COUNTIES.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS PERIOD BETWEEN THE MODELS...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS THEMSELVES
APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. GFS INDICATING A
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AREA WIDE...AND
A GULF LOW MOVING EAST ALONG THE COAST...AND STAYING WELL EAST OF
THE AREA...EVENTUALLY BECOMING A NOR`EASTER. ECMWF HOWEVER INDICATES
A STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM SOLUTION...WITH LOW MOVING NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE GULF REGION INTO THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN MORE
OF A WINTRY  MIX SCENARIO TO START EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO
NEW ENGLAND. FOR NOW...IN COORDINATION WITH OTHER OFFICES...DID A
GENERAL BROAD BRUSH OF POPS IN THE EXTENDED...WITH PERIODS OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AT TIMES ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS ARE DECREASING IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND WILL
EVENTUALLY JUST TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES FROM WEST TO EAST INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY WORKING INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING AND HTS LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN
VFR FOR THE PERIOD. ALL OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE MVFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
TOMORROW.

SOME HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR TO BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE IN MOUNTAINS. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE ALONG RIDGE TOPS WITH DIMINISHING WINDS ELSEWHERE.
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OUT OF THE
REGION AND EVEN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ENDING OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...ALONG
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS...MAY BE SLOWER OR POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT
FASTER THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EST 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
OUR NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES ON FRIDAY AND IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ037>040.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV/MPK
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...MPK




000
FXUS61 KRLX 102331
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
631 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY FOR A
LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS PICK UP AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT PLOWS THROUGH THE
AREA GIVING EVEN COLDER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
530 PM UPDATE...JUST MINOR CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON
CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO OTHER
CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW OF DEEPER WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE FINALLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THUS...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST WILL OCCUR. LOOKS
LIKE MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE LOW LANDS...OUTSIDE OF A
FEW LINGERING AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SNOW SHOWERS...WILL
TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL LIMIT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW TONIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ITS WESTERN
UPSLOPE COUNTIES...RANGING FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES....ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ANTICIPATE EXPIRING THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE LOW LANDS AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AT 6 PM THIS
EVENING. ON THURSDAY...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL END BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH JUST LIGHT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN SOME SUNSHINE WILL RETURN TO THE WEST HALF OF
THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
THOUGH...WITH RATHER FRIGID TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THURSDAY...VERY MUCH BELOW NORMAL. GUSTY
WEST WINDS TONIGHT ON THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY THERE FOR TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE SUCCUMBS TO AN ARCTIC FRONT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A RETURN TO THE OMNIPRESENT
SNOW SHOWERS THAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED MOST OF THIS WEEK. WITH
THESE SHOWERS EXPECT ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES DEPENDING ON SHOWER
PLACEMENT AND TIMING. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS ARE ONCE AGAIN THE
FAVORED AREAS DUE TO THE TOPOGRAPHY ENHANCEMENT.

TEMPERATURES PLUMMET IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...IN WHAT LIKELY
WILL BE A WIDESPREAD SUB-ZERO FAHRENHEIT EVENT WITH WIND CHILLS
APPROACHING -30 F IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH LITTLE TO NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. SOME GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.
THIS WITH ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE...850MB AIR -23C...WILL RESULT IN
RATHER COLD TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY WITH SNOWFALL ON THE
GROUND...AND ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. HAVE KEPT LOW
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIND CHILL ADVISORIES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAINOUS
COUNTIES.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS PERIOD BETWEEN THE MODELS...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS THEMSELVES
APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. GFS INDICATING A
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AREA WIDE...AND
A GULF LOW MOVING EAST ALONG THE COAST...AND STAYING WELL EAST OF
THE AREA...EVENTUALLY BECOMING A NOR`EASTER. ECMWF HOWEVER INDICATES
A STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM SOLUTION...WITH LOW MOVING NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE GULF REGION INTO THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN MORE
OF A WINTRY  MIX SCENARIO TO START EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO
NEW ENGLAND. FOR NOW...IN COORDINATION WITH OTHER OFFICES...DID A
GENERAL BROAD BRUSH OF POPS IN THE EXTENDED...WITH PERIODS OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AT TIMES ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS ARE DECREASING IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND WILL
EVENTUALLY JUST TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES FROM WEST TO EAST INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY WORKING INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING AND HTS LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN
VFR FOR THE PERIOD. ALL OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE MVFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
TOMORROW.

SOME HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR TO BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE IN MOUNTAINS. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE ALONG RIDGE TOPS WITH DIMINISHING WINDS ELSEWHERE.
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OUT OF THE
REGION AND EVEN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ENDING OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...ALONG
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS...MAY BE SLOWER OR POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT
FASTER THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EST 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
OUR NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES ON FRIDAY AND IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ037>040.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV/MPK
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...MPK




000
FXUS61 KRLX 102238
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
538 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY FOR A
LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS PICK UP AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT PLOWS THROUGH THE
AREA GIVING EVEN COLDER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
530 PM UPDATE...JUST MINOR CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON
CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO OTHER
CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW OF DEEPER WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE FINALLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THUS...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST WILL OCCUR. LOOKS
LIKE MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE LOW LANDS...OUTSIDE OF A
FEW LINGERING AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SNOW SHOWERS...WILL
TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL LIMIT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW TONIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ITS WESTERN
UPSLOPE COUNTIES...RANGING FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES....ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ANTICIPATE EXPIRING THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE LOW LANDS AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AT 6 PM THIS
EVENING. ON THURSDAY...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL END BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH JUST LIGHT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN SOME SUNSHINE WILL RETURN TO THE WEST HALF OF
THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
THOUGH...WITH RATHER FRIGID TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THURSDAY...VERY MUCH BELOW NORMAL. GUSTY
WEST WINDS TONIGHT ON THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY THERE FOR TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE SUCCUMBS TO AN ARCTIC FRONT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A RETURN TO THE OMNIPRESENT
SNOW SHOWERS THAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED MOST OF THIS WEEK. WITH
THESE SHOWERS EXPECT ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES DEPENDING ON SHOWER
PLACEMENT AND TIMING. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS ARE ONCE AGAIN THE
FAVORED AREAS DUE TO THE TOPOGRAPHY ENHANCEMENT.

TEMPERATURES PLUMMET IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...IN WHAT LIKELY
WILL BE A WIDESPREAD SUB-ZERO FAHRENHEIT EVENT WITH WIND CHILLS
APPROACHING -30 F IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH LITTLE TO NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. SOME GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.
THIS WITH ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE...850MB AIR -23C...WILL RESULT IN
RATHER COLD TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY WITH SNOWFALL ON THE
GROUND...AND ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. HAVE KEPT LOW
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIND CHILL ADVISORIES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAINOUS
COUNTIES.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS PERIOD BETWEEN THE MODELS...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS THEMSELVES
APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. GFS INDICATING A
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AREA WIDE...AND
A GULF LOW MOVING EAST ALONG THE COAST...AND STAYING WELL EAST OF
THE AREA...EVENTUALLY BECOMING A NOR`EASTER. ECMWF HOWEVER INDICATES
A STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM SOLUTION...WITH LOW MOVING NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE GULF REGION INTO THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN MORE
OF A WINTRY  MIX SCENARIO TO START EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO
NEW ENGLAND. FOR NOW...IN COORDINATION WITH OTHER OFFICES...DID A
GENERAL BROAD BRUSH OF POPS IN THE EXTENDED...WITH PERIODS OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AT TIMES ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z WEDNESDAY THRU 18Z THURSDAY...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY BE TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES FROM WEST TO
EAST FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHLY
VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS OUTSIDE OF SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT IFR VSBY IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. GUSTY WEST WINDS
10 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY MOUNTAINS.

FOR TONIGHT...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS. VFR CEILINGS REACH
OHIO RIVER BY 07Z...MVFR CEILINGS WITH FLURRIES OVER REMAINING
LOW LANDS. SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN
MOUNTAINS. GUSTY WEST WINDS WINDS CONTINUE RIDGETOPS WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS ELSEWHERE.

AFTER 12Z...VFR SCT-BKN VFR STRATOCU SPREADING EAST TO A CKB-CRW
LINE BY 18Z...SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF WITH GENERALLY MVFR
CEILINGS MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ENDING OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...ALONG
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS...MAY BE SLOWER THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EST 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
SOME IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LINGER OVER WV MOUNTAINS INTO
THURSDAY. IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT TIMES FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>036.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ037>040.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>087.
KY...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV/MPK
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JMV




000
FXUS61 KRLX 102037
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
337 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY FOR A
LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS PICK UP AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT PLOWS THROUGH THE
AREA GIVING EVEN COLDER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW OF DEEPER WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE FINALLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THUS...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST WILL OCCUR. LOOKS
LIKE MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE LOW LANDS...OUTSIDE OF A
FEW LINGERING AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SNOW SHOWERS...WILL
TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL LIMIT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW TONIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ITS WESTERN
UPSLOPE COUNTIES...RANGING FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES....ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ANTICIPATE EXPIRING THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE LOW LANDS AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AT 6 PM THIS
EVENING. ON THURSDAY...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL END BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH JUST LIGHT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN SOME SUNSHINE WILL RETURN TO THE WEST HALF OF
THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
THOUGH...WITH RATHER FRIGID TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THURSDAY...VERY MUCH BELOW NORMAL. GUSTY
WEST WINDS TONIGHT ON THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY THERE FOR TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE SUCCUMBS TO AN ARCTIC FRONT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A RETURN TO THE OMNIPRESENT
SNOW SHOWERS THAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED MOST OF THIS WEEK. WITH
THESE SHOWERS EXPECT ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES DEPENDING ON SHOWER
PLACEMENT AND TIMING. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS ARE ONCE AGAIN THE
FAVORED AREAS DUE TO THE TOPOGRAPHY ENHANCEMENT.

TEMPERATURES PLUMMET IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...IN WHAT LIKELY
WILL BE A WIDESPREAD SUB-ZERO FAHRENHEIT EVENT WITH WIND CHILLS
APPROACHING -30 F IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH LITTLE TO NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. SOME GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.
THIS WITH ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE...850MB AIR -23C...WILL RESULT IN
RATHER COLD TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY WITH SNOWFALL ON THE
GROUND...AND ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. HAVE KEPT LOW
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIND CHILL ADVISORIES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAINOUS
COUNTIES.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS PERIOD BETWEEN THE MODELS...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS THEMSELVES
APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. GFS INDICATING A
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AREA WIDE...AND
A GULF LOW MOVING EAST ALONG THE COAST...AND STAYING WELL EAST OF
THE AREA...EVENTUALLY BECOMING A NOR`EASTER. ECMWF HOWEVER INDICATES
A STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM SOLUTION...WITH LOW MOVING NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE GULF REGION INTO THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN MORE
OF A WINTRY  MIX SCENARIO TO START EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO
NEW ENGLAND. FOR NOW...IN COORDINATION WITH OTHER OFFICES...DID A
GENERAL BROAD BRUSH OF POPS IN THE EXTENDED...WITH PERIODS OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AT TIMES ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z WEDNESDAY THRU 18Z THURSDAY...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY BE TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES FROM WEST TO
EAST FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHLY
VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS OUTSIDE OF SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT IFR VSBY IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. GUSTY WEST WINDS
10 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY MOUNTAINS.

FOR TONIGHT...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS. VFR CEILINGS REACH
OHIO RIVER BY 07Z...MVFR CEILINGS WITH FLURRIES OVER REMAINING
LOW LANDS. SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN
MOUNTAINS. GUSTY WEST WINDS WINDS CONTINUE RIDGETOPS WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS ELSEWHERE.

AFTER 12Z...VFR SCT-BKN VFR STRATOCU SPREADING EAST TO A CKB-CRW
LINE BY 18Z...SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF WITH GENERALLY MVFR
CEILINGS MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ENDING OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...ALONG
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS...MAY BE SLOWER THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EST 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
SOME IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LINGER OVER WV MOUNTAINS INTO
THURSDAY. IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT TIMES FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>036.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ037>040.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>087.
KY...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JMV




000
FXUS61 KRLX 102037
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
337 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY FOR A
LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS PICK UP AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT PLOWS THROUGH THE
AREA GIVING EVEN COLDER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW OF DEEPER WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE FINALLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THUS...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST WILL OCCUR. LOOKS
LIKE MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE LOW LANDS...OUTSIDE OF A
FEW LINGERING AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SNOW SHOWERS...WILL
TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL LIMIT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW TONIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ITS WESTERN
UPSLOPE COUNTIES...RANGING FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES....ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ANTICIPATE EXPIRING THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE LOW LANDS AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AT 6 PM THIS
EVENING. ON THURSDAY...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL END BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH JUST LIGHT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN SOME SUNSHINE WILL RETURN TO THE WEST HALF OF
THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
THOUGH...WITH RATHER FRIGID TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THURSDAY...VERY MUCH BELOW NORMAL. GUSTY
WEST WINDS TONIGHT ON THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY THERE FOR TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE SUCCUMBS TO AN ARCTIC FRONT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A RETURN TO THE OMNIPRESENT
SNOW SHOWERS THAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED MOST OF THIS WEEK. WITH
THESE SHOWERS EXPECT ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES DEPENDING ON SHOWER
PLACEMENT AND TIMING. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS ARE ONCE AGAIN THE
FAVORED AREAS DUE TO THE TOPOGRAPHY ENHANCEMENT.

TEMPERATURES PLUMMET IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...IN WHAT LIKELY
WILL BE A WIDESPREAD SUB-ZERO FAHRENHEIT EVENT WITH WIND CHILLS
APPROACHING -30 F IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH LITTLE TO NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. SOME GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.
THIS WITH ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE...850MB AIR -23C...WILL RESULT IN
RATHER COLD TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY WITH SNOWFALL ON THE
GROUND...AND ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. HAVE KEPT LOW
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIND CHILL ADVISORIES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAINOUS
COUNTIES.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS PERIOD BETWEEN THE MODELS...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS THEMSELVES
APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. GFS INDICATING A
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AREA WIDE...AND
A GULF LOW MOVING EAST ALONG THE COAST...AND STAYING WELL EAST OF
THE AREA...EVENTUALLY BECOMING A NOR`EASTER. ECMWF HOWEVER INDICATES
A STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM SOLUTION...WITH LOW MOVING NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE GULF REGION INTO THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN MORE
OF A WINTRY  MIX SCENARIO TO START EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO
NEW ENGLAND. FOR NOW...IN COORDINATION WITH OTHER OFFICES...DID A
GENERAL BROAD BRUSH OF POPS IN THE EXTENDED...WITH PERIODS OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AT TIMES ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z WEDNESDAY THRU 18Z THURSDAY...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY BE TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES FROM WEST TO
EAST FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHLY
VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS OUTSIDE OF SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT IFR VSBY IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. GUSTY WEST WINDS
10 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY MOUNTAINS.

FOR TONIGHT...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS. VFR CEILINGS REACH
OHIO RIVER BY 07Z...MVFR CEILINGS WITH FLURRIES OVER REMAINING
LOW LANDS. SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN
MOUNTAINS. GUSTY WEST WINDS WINDS CONTINUE RIDGETOPS WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS ELSEWHERE.

AFTER 12Z...VFR SCT-BKN VFR STRATOCU SPREADING EAST TO A CKB-CRW
LINE BY 18Z...SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF WITH GENERALLY MVFR
CEILINGS MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ENDING OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...ALONG
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS...MAY BE SLOWER THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EST 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
SOME IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LINGER OVER WV MOUNTAINS INTO
THURSDAY. IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT TIMES FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>036.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ037>040.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>087.
KY...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JMV



000
FXUS61 KRLX 102037
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
337 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY FOR A
LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS PICK UP AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT PLOWS THROUGH THE
AREA GIVING EVEN COLDER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW OF DEEPER WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE FINALLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THUS...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST WILL OCCUR. LOOKS
LIKE MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE LOW LANDS...OUTSIDE OF A
FEW LINGERING AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SNOW SHOWERS...WILL
TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL LIMIT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW TONIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ITS WESTERN
UPSLOPE COUNTIES...RANGING FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES....ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ANTICIPATE EXPIRING THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE LOW LANDS AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AT 6 PM THIS
EVENING. ON THURSDAY...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL END BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH JUST LIGHT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN SOME SUNSHINE WILL RETURN TO THE WEST HALF OF
THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
THOUGH...WITH RATHER FRIGID TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THURSDAY...VERY MUCH BELOW NORMAL. GUSTY
WEST WINDS TONIGHT ON THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY THERE FOR TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE SUCCUMBS TO AN ARCTIC FRONT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A RETURN TO THE OMNIPRESENT
SNOW SHOWERS THAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED MOST OF THIS WEEK. WITH
THESE SHOWERS EXPECT ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES DEPENDING ON SHOWER
PLACEMENT AND TIMING. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS ARE ONCE AGAIN THE
FAVORED AREAS DUE TO THE TOPOGRAPHY ENHANCEMENT.

TEMPERATURES PLUMMET IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...IN WHAT LIKELY
WILL BE A WIDESPREAD SUB-ZERO FAHRENHEIT EVENT WITH WIND CHILLS
APPROACHING -30 F IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH LITTLE TO NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. SOME GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.
THIS WITH ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE...850MB AIR -23C...WILL RESULT IN
RATHER COLD TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY WITH SNOWFALL ON THE
GROUND...AND ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. HAVE KEPT LOW
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIND CHILL ADVISORIES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAINOUS
COUNTIES.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS PERIOD BETWEEN THE MODELS...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS THEMSELVES
APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. GFS INDICATING A
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AREA WIDE...AND
A GULF LOW MOVING EAST ALONG THE COAST...AND STAYING WELL EAST OF
THE AREA...EVENTUALLY BECOMING A NOR`EASTER. ECMWF HOWEVER INDICATES
A STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM SOLUTION...WITH LOW MOVING NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE GULF REGION INTO THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN MORE
OF A WINTRY  MIX SCENARIO TO START EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO
NEW ENGLAND. FOR NOW...IN COORDINATION WITH OTHER OFFICES...DID A
GENERAL BROAD BRUSH OF POPS IN THE EXTENDED...WITH PERIODS OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AT TIMES ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z WEDNESDAY THRU 18Z THURSDAY...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY BE TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES FROM WEST TO
EAST FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHLY
VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS OUTSIDE OF SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT IFR VSBY IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. GUSTY WEST WINDS
10 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY MOUNTAINS.

FOR TONIGHT...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS. VFR CEILINGS REACH
OHIO RIVER BY 07Z...MVFR CEILINGS WITH FLURRIES OVER REMAINING
LOW LANDS. SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN
MOUNTAINS. GUSTY WEST WINDS WINDS CONTINUE RIDGETOPS WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS ELSEWHERE.

AFTER 12Z...VFR SCT-BKN VFR STRATOCU SPREADING EAST TO A CKB-CRW
LINE BY 18Z...SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF WITH GENERALLY MVFR
CEILINGS MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ENDING OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...ALONG
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS...MAY BE SLOWER THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EST 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
SOME IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LINGER OVER WV MOUNTAINS INTO
THURSDAY. IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT TIMES FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>036.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ037>040.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>087.
KY...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JMV




000
FXUS61 KRLX 102023
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
323 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY FOR A
LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS PICK UP AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT PLOWS THROUGH THE
AREA GIVING EVEN COLDER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW OF DEEPER WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE FINALLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THUS...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST WILL OCCUR. LOOKS
LIKE MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE LOW LANDS...OUTSIDE OF A
FEW LINGERING AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SNOW SHOWERS...WILL
TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL LIMIT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW TONIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ITS WESTERN
UPSLOPE COUNTIES...RANGING FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES....ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ANTICIPATE EXPIRING THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE LOW LANDS AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AT 6 PM THIS
EVENING. ON THURSDAY...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL END BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH JUST LIGHT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN SOME SUNSHINE WILL RETURN TO THE WEST HALF OF
THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
THOUGH...WITH RATHER FRIGID TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THURSDAY...VERY MUCH BELOW NORMAL. GUSTY
WEST WINDS TONIGHT ON THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY THERE FOR TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE SUCCUMBS TO AN ARCTIC FRONT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A RETURN TO THE OMNIPRESENT
SNOW SHOWERS THAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED MOST OF THIS WEEK. WITH
THESE SHOWERS EXPECT ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES DEPENDING ON SHOWER
PLACEMENT AND TIMING. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS ARE ONCE AGAIN THE
FAVORED AREAS DUE TO THE TOPOGRAPHY ENHANCEMENT.

TEMPERATURES PLUMMET IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...IN WHAT LIKELY
WILL BE A WIDESPREAD SUB-ZERO FAHRENHEIT EVENT WITH WIND CHILLS
APPROACHING -30 F IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ARCTIC FRONT THIS WEEKEND...WILL BRING IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST.
OVERALL...ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FIGURED FOR SATURDAY...AND MAINLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS. WITH THE VERY COLD
AIR...EXPECT A RATHER LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND. BASED ON
TIMING OF THE FRONT...COULD BE FALLING TEMPERATURES EARLY ON
SATURDAY...BEFORE BECOMING SOMEWHAT STEADY DURING THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUITE COLD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A
GRADUALLY CLEARING SKY...AND -24 AIR AT 850MB IN PLACE. WENT BELOW
GUIDANCE ACROSS THE CWA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS MOUNTAINOUS VALLEYS
SUCH AS AT KEKN.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
THIS LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY SNOW EVENT...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF A RAIN SNOW MIX ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z WEDNESDAY THRU 18Z THURSDAY...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY BE TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES FROM WEST TO
EAST FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHLY
VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS OUTSIDE OF SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT IFR VSBY IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. GUSTY WEST WINDS
10 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY MOUNTAINS.

FOR TONIGHT...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS. VFR CEILINGS REACH
OHIO RIVER BY 07Z...MVFR CEILINGS WITH FLURRIES OVER REMAINING
LOW LANDS. SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN
MOUNTAINS. GUSTY WEST WINDS WINDS CONTINUE RIDGETOPS WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS ELSEWHERE.

AFTER 12Z...VFR SCT-BKN VFR STRATOCU SPREADING EAST TO A CKB-CRW
LINE BY 18Z...SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF WITH GENERALLY MVFR
CEILINGS MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ENDING OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...ALONG
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS...MAY BE SLOWER THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
SOME IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LINGER OVER WV MOUNTAINS INTO
THURSDAY. IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT TIMES FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>036.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ037>040.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>087.
KY...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JMV




000
FXUS61 KRLX 102013
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
313 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY FOR A
LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. TROUGH RE-ESTABLISHES FRIDAY- SATURDAY
WITH RETURN OF SNOW SHOWERS AND EVEN COLDER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW OF DEEPER WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE FINALLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THUS...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST WILL OCCUR. LOOKS
LIKE MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE LOW LANDS...OUTSIDE OF A
FEW LINGERING AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SNOW SHOWERS...WILL
TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL LIMIT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW TONIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ITS WESTERN
UPSLOPE COUNTIES...RANGING FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES....ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ANTICIPATE EXPIRING THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE LOW LANDS AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AT 6 PM THIS
EVENING. ON THURSDAY...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL END BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH JUST LIGHT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN SOME SUNSHINE WILL RETURN TO THE WEST HALF OF
THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
THOUGH...WITH RATHER FRIGID TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THURSDAY...VERY MUCH BELOW NORMAL. GUSTY
WEST WINDS TONIGHT ON THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY THERE FOR TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES.



&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
WEDNESDAY. THE LOW STARTS TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA WED NT AND THU.

A SERIES OF VORTICITY LOBES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
TROUGH TO KEEP SOME FORCING FOR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. WESTERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY VEERS FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET THE PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN
RIGHT TOWARDS NORTH OF OUR AREA THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL PRODUCE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 4.5
INCHES ALONG THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS FOR THURSDAY.

ANOTHER VORTICITY LOBE CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ENHANCING SNOW OVER THE LOWLANDS...AND UPSLOPE SNOW OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

USED THE SUPERBLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ARCTIC FRONT THIS WEEKEND...WILL BRING IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST.
OVERALL...ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FIGURED FOR SATURDAY...AND MAINLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS. WITH THE VERY COLD
AIR...EXPECT A RATHER LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND. BASED ON
TIMING OF THE FRONT...COULD BE FALLING TEMPERATURES EARLY ON
SATURDAY...BEFORE BECOMING SOMEWHAT STEADY DURING THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUITE COLD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A
GRADUALLY CLEARING SKY...AND -24 AIR AT 850MB IN PLACE. WENT BELOW
GUIDANCE ACROSS THE CWA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS MOUNTAINOUS VALLEYS
SUCH AS AT KEKN.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
THIS LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY SNOW EVENT...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF A RAIN SNOW MIX ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z WEDNESDAY THRU 18Z THURSDAY...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY BE TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES FROM WEST TO
EAST FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHLY
VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS OUTSIDE OF SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT IFR VSBY IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. GUSTY WEST WINDS
10 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY MOUNTAINS.

FOR TONIGHT...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS. VFR CEILINGS REACH
OHIO RIVER BY 07Z...MVFR CEILINGS WITH FLURRIES OVER REMAINING
LOW LANDS. SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN
MOUNTAINS. GUSTY WEST WINDS WINDS CONTINUE RIDGETOPS WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS ELSEWHERE.

AFTER 12Z...VFR SCT-BKN VFR STRATOCU SPREADING EAST TO A CKB-CRW
LINE BY 18Z...SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF WITH GENERALLY MVFR
CEILINGS MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ENDING OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...ALONG
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS...MAY BE SLOWER THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
SOME IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LINGER OVER WV MOUNTAINS INTO
THURSDAY. IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT TIMES FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>036.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ037>040.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>087.
KY...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JMV



000
FXUS61 KRLX 102013
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
313 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY FOR A
LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. TROUGH RE-ESTABLISHES FRIDAY- SATURDAY
WITH RETURN OF SNOW SHOWERS AND EVEN COLDER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW OF DEEPER WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE FINALLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THUS...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST WILL OCCUR. LOOKS
LIKE MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE LOW LANDS...OUTSIDE OF A
FEW LINGERING AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SNOW SHOWERS...WILL
TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL LIMIT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW TONIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ITS WESTERN
UPSLOPE COUNTIES...RANGING FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES....ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ANTICIPATE EXPIRING THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE LOW LANDS AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AT 6 PM THIS
EVENING. ON THURSDAY...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL END BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH JUST LIGHT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN SOME SUNSHINE WILL RETURN TO THE WEST HALF OF
THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
THOUGH...WITH RATHER FRIGID TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THURSDAY...VERY MUCH BELOW NORMAL. GUSTY
WEST WINDS TONIGHT ON THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY THERE FOR TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES.



&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
WEDNESDAY. THE LOW STARTS TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA WED NT AND THU.

A SERIES OF VORTICITY LOBES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
TROUGH TO KEEP SOME FORCING FOR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. WESTERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY VEERS FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET THE PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN
RIGHT TOWARDS NORTH OF OUR AREA THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL PRODUCE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 4.5
INCHES ALONG THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS FOR THURSDAY.

ANOTHER VORTICITY LOBE CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ENHANCING SNOW OVER THE LOWLANDS...AND UPSLOPE SNOW OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

USED THE SUPERBLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ARCTIC FRONT THIS WEEKEND...WILL BRING IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST.
OVERALL...ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FIGURED FOR SATURDAY...AND MAINLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS. WITH THE VERY COLD
AIR...EXPECT A RATHER LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND. BASED ON
TIMING OF THE FRONT...COULD BE FALLING TEMPERATURES EARLY ON
SATURDAY...BEFORE BECOMING SOMEWHAT STEADY DURING THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUITE COLD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A
GRADUALLY CLEARING SKY...AND -24 AIR AT 850MB IN PLACE. WENT BELOW
GUIDANCE ACROSS THE CWA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS MOUNTAINOUS VALLEYS
SUCH AS AT KEKN.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
THIS LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY SNOW EVENT...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF A RAIN SNOW MIX ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z WEDNESDAY THRU 18Z THURSDAY...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY BE TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES FROM WEST TO
EAST FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHLY
VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS OUTSIDE OF SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT IFR VSBY IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. GUSTY WEST WINDS
10 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY MOUNTAINS.

FOR TONIGHT...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS. VFR CEILINGS REACH
OHIO RIVER BY 07Z...MVFR CEILINGS WITH FLURRIES OVER REMAINING
LOW LANDS. SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN
MOUNTAINS. GUSTY WEST WINDS WINDS CONTINUE RIDGETOPS WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS ELSEWHERE.

AFTER 12Z...VFR SCT-BKN VFR STRATOCU SPREADING EAST TO A CKB-CRW
LINE BY 18Z...SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF WITH GENERALLY MVFR
CEILINGS MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ENDING OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...ALONG
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS...MAY BE SLOWER THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
SOME IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LINGER OVER WV MOUNTAINS INTO
THURSDAY. IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT TIMES FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>036.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ037>040.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>087.
KY...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JMV




000
FXUS61 KRLX 101828
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
128 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY FOR A BRIEF
LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. TROUGH RE-ESTABLISHES FRIDAY-SATURDAY
WITH RETURN OF SNOW SHOWERS AND EVEN COLDER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

1:00 PM UPDATE. EXPIRED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR KENTUCKY.

10:00 AM UPDATE...INCREASED POPS THIS MORNING OVER SOUTH AND WEST
PORTIONS OF AREA PER RADAR/OBS AND HI RES MODEL VORT MAX MOVING
ACROSS THAT AREA. ANOTHER VORT MAX OVER CENTRAL OHIO WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON....AND
INCREASED POPS THERE. BEHIND THIS SECOND VORT MAX...BACK EDGE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE AND SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOWERS SHIFT RAPIDLY EAST
INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY EVENING....WITH LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE
LOW LANDS. GENERAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH STILL LOOK
GOOD...WITH THE TYPICAL LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ANY NARROW SNOW
BAND. NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES.

PREV DISCN...
A POTPOURRI OF CHANGES NEEDED TO ADVISORIES BASED ON SNOW SHOWERS
PERSISTING INTO OR REGENERATING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS...AND LINGERING INTO THU IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGHEST
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN WILL NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING.

THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A DEEP UPPER LEVEL L/W TROUGH MOVING
SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S. IT WILL SLOWLY START TO LIFT
OUT TONIGHT. THIS TROUGH HAS BECOME LARGELY DEFINED BY A
NEGATIVELY TILTED AXIS THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
IT..AND DIURNAL HEATING...ARE LIKELY TO FILL THE RADAR SCOPE WITH
A POPCORN PATTERN OF NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS BY THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE NEARLY AUTO CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.

OTHERWISE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR SNOW SHOWERS IN AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

BLENDED IN A COMBINATION OF NAM...RUC AND LAMP TEMPERATURES AND
DEW POINTS TODAY...AND THEN BIAS CORRECTED MET/MAV FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. WINDS WERE DERIVED FROM THE NAM USING THE
RUC METHOD FOR GUSTS...OFF WHICH WIND SPEEDS WERE MODULATED.

WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IS
LEFT TO EXPIRE AT 1 PM FOR THE NE KY COUNTIES...BUT EXTENDED
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE LOWLAND COUNTIES AND SW VA UNTIL 6 PM
TONIGHT...AND IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY.
FURTHER...THE ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY FOR THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES OF POCAHONTAS AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES
WHERE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WAS HOISTED FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING FOR WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -20C.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
WEDNESDAY. THE LOW STARTS TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA WED NT AND THU.

A SERIES OF VORTICITY LOBES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
TROUGH TO KEEP SOME FORCING FOR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. WESTERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY VEERS FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET THE PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN
RIGHT TOWARDS NORTH OF OUR AREA THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL PRODUCE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 4.5
INCHES ALONG THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS FOR THURSDAY.

ANOTHER VORTICITY LOBE CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ENHANCING SNOW OVER THE LOWLANDS...AND UPSLOPE SNOW OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

USED THE SUPERBLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ARCTIC FRONT THIS WEEKEND...WILL BRING IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST.
OVERALL...ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FIGURED FOR SATURDAY...AND MAINLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS. WITH THE VERY COLD
AIR...EXPECT A RATHER LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND. BASED ON
TIMING OF THE FRONT...COULD BE FALLING TEMPERATURES EARLY ON
SATURDAY...BEFORE BECOMING SOMEWHAT STEADY DURING THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUITE COLD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A
GRADUALLY CLEARING SKY...AND -24 AIR AT 850MB IN PLACE. WENT BELOW
GUIDANCE ACROSS THE CWA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS MOUNTAINOUS VALLEYS
SUCH AS AT KEKN.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
THIS LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY SNOW EVENT...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF A RAIN SNOW MIX ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z WEDNESDAY THRU 18Z THURSDAY...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY BE TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES FROM WEST TO
EAST FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHLY
VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS OUTSIDE OF SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT IFR VSBY IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. GUSTY WEST WINDS
10 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY MOUNTAINS.

FOR TONIGHT...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS. VFR CEILINGS REACH
OHIO RIVER BY 07Z...MVFR CEILINGS WITH FLURRIES OVER REMAINING
LOW LANDS. SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN
MOUNTAINS. GUSTY WEST WINDS WINDS CONTINUE RIDGETOPS WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS ELSEWHERE.

AFTER 12Z...VFR SCT-BKN VFR STRATOCU SPREADING EAST TO A CKB-CRW
LINE BY 18Z...SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF WITH GENERALLY MVFR
CEILINGS MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ENDING OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...ALONG
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS...MAY BE SLOWER THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
SOME IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LINGER OVER WV MOUNTAINS INTO
THURSDAY. IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT TIMES FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>036.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ037>040.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>087.
KY...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JMV




000
FXUS61 KRLX 101828
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
128 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY FOR A BRIEF
LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. TROUGH RE-ESTABLISHES FRIDAY-SATURDAY
WITH RETURN OF SNOW SHOWERS AND EVEN COLDER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

1:00 PM UPDATE. EXPIRED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR KENTUCKY.

10:00 AM UPDATE...INCREASED POPS THIS MORNING OVER SOUTH AND WEST
PORTIONS OF AREA PER RADAR/OBS AND HI RES MODEL VORT MAX MOVING
ACROSS THAT AREA. ANOTHER VORT MAX OVER CENTRAL OHIO WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON....AND
INCREASED POPS THERE. BEHIND THIS SECOND VORT MAX...BACK EDGE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE AND SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOWERS SHIFT RAPIDLY EAST
INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY EVENING....WITH LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE
LOW LANDS. GENERAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH STILL LOOK
GOOD...WITH THE TYPICAL LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ANY NARROW SNOW
BAND. NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES.

PREV DISCN...
A POTPOURRI OF CHANGES NEEDED TO ADVISORIES BASED ON SNOW SHOWERS
PERSISTING INTO OR REGENERATING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS...AND LINGERING INTO THU IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGHEST
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN WILL NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING.

THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A DEEP UPPER LEVEL L/W TROUGH MOVING
SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S. IT WILL SLOWLY START TO LIFT
OUT TONIGHT. THIS TROUGH HAS BECOME LARGELY DEFINED BY A
NEGATIVELY TILTED AXIS THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
IT..AND DIURNAL HEATING...ARE LIKELY TO FILL THE RADAR SCOPE WITH
A POPCORN PATTERN OF NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS BY THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE NEARLY AUTO CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.

OTHERWISE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR SNOW SHOWERS IN AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

BLENDED IN A COMBINATION OF NAM...RUC AND LAMP TEMPERATURES AND
DEW POINTS TODAY...AND THEN BIAS CORRECTED MET/MAV FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. WINDS WERE DERIVED FROM THE NAM USING THE
RUC METHOD FOR GUSTS...OFF WHICH WIND SPEEDS WERE MODULATED.

WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IS
LEFT TO EXPIRE AT 1 PM FOR THE NE KY COUNTIES...BUT EXTENDED
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE LOWLAND COUNTIES AND SW VA UNTIL 6 PM
TONIGHT...AND IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY.
FURTHER...THE ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY FOR THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES OF POCAHONTAS AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES
WHERE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WAS HOISTED FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING FOR WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -20C.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
WEDNESDAY. THE LOW STARTS TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA WED NT AND THU.

A SERIES OF VORTICITY LOBES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
TROUGH TO KEEP SOME FORCING FOR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. WESTERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY VEERS FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET THE PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN
RIGHT TOWARDS NORTH OF OUR AREA THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL PRODUCE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 4.5
INCHES ALONG THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS FOR THURSDAY.

ANOTHER VORTICITY LOBE CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ENHANCING SNOW OVER THE LOWLANDS...AND UPSLOPE SNOW OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

USED THE SUPERBLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ARCTIC FRONT THIS WEEKEND...WILL BRING IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST.
OVERALL...ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FIGURED FOR SATURDAY...AND MAINLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS. WITH THE VERY COLD
AIR...EXPECT A RATHER LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND. BASED ON
TIMING OF THE FRONT...COULD BE FALLING TEMPERATURES EARLY ON
SATURDAY...BEFORE BECOMING SOMEWHAT STEADY DURING THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUITE COLD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A
GRADUALLY CLEARING SKY...AND -24 AIR AT 850MB IN PLACE. WENT BELOW
GUIDANCE ACROSS THE CWA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS MOUNTAINOUS VALLEYS
SUCH AS AT KEKN.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
THIS LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY SNOW EVENT...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF A RAIN SNOW MIX ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z WEDNESDAY THRU 18Z THURSDAY...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY BE TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES FROM WEST TO
EAST FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHLY
VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS OUTSIDE OF SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT IFR VSBY IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. GUSTY WEST WINDS
10 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY MOUNTAINS.

FOR TONIGHT...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS. VFR CEILINGS REACH
OHIO RIVER BY 07Z...MVFR CEILINGS WITH FLURRIES OVER REMAINING
LOW LANDS. SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN
MOUNTAINS. GUSTY WEST WINDS WINDS CONTINUE RIDGETOPS WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS ELSEWHERE.

AFTER 12Z...VFR SCT-BKN VFR STRATOCU SPREADING EAST TO A CKB-CRW
LINE BY 18Z...SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF WITH GENERALLY MVFR
CEILINGS MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ENDING OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...ALONG
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS...MAY BE SLOWER THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
SOME IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LINGER OVER WV MOUNTAINS INTO
THURSDAY. IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT TIMES FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>036.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ037>040.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>087.
KY...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JMV



000
FXUS61 KRLX 101828
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
128 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY FOR A BRIEF
LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. TROUGH RE-ESTABLISHES FRIDAY-SATURDAY
WITH RETURN OF SNOW SHOWERS AND EVEN COLDER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

1:00 PM UPDATE. EXPIRED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR KENTUCKY.

10:00 AM UPDATE...INCREASED POPS THIS MORNING OVER SOUTH AND WEST
PORTIONS OF AREA PER RADAR/OBS AND HI RES MODEL VORT MAX MOVING
ACROSS THAT AREA. ANOTHER VORT MAX OVER CENTRAL OHIO WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON....AND
INCREASED POPS THERE. BEHIND THIS SECOND VORT MAX...BACK EDGE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE AND SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOWERS SHIFT RAPIDLY EAST
INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY EVENING....WITH LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE
LOW LANDS. GENERAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH STILL LOOK
GOOD...WITH THE TYPICAL LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ANY NARROW SNOW
BAND. NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES.

PREV DISCN...
A POTPOURRI OF CHANGES NEEDED TO ADVISORIES BASED ON SNOW SHOWERS
PERSISTING INTO OR REGENERATING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS...AND LINGERING INTO THU IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGHEST
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN WILL NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING.

THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A DEEP UPPER LEVEL L/W TROUGH MOVING
SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S. IT WILL SLOWLY START TO LIFT
OUT TONIGHT. THIS TROUGH HAS BECOME LARGELY DEFINED BY A
NEGATIVELY TILTED AXIS THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
IT..AND DIURNAL HEATING...ARE LIKELY TO FILL THE RADAR SCOPE WITH
A POPCORN PATTERN OF NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS BY THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE NEARLY AUTO CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.

OTHERWISE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR SNOW SHOWERS IN AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

BLENDED IN A COMBINATION OF NAM...RUC AND LAMP TEMPERATURES AND
DEW POINTS TODAY...AND THEN BIAS CORRECTED MET/MAV FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. WINDS WERE DERIVED FROM THE NAM USING THE
RUC METHOD FOR GUSTS...OFF WHICH WIND SPEEDS WERE MODULATED.

WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IS
LEFT TO EXPIRE AT 1 PM FOR THE NE KY COUNTIES...BUT EXTENDED
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE LOWLAND COUNTIES AND SW VA UNTIL 6 PM
TONIGHT...AND IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY.
FURTHER...THE ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY FOR THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES OF POCAHONTAS AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES
WHERE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WAS HOISTED FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING FOR WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -20C.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
WEDNESDAY. THE LOW STARTS TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA WED NT AND THU.

A SERIES OF VORTICITY LOBES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
TROUGH TO KEEP SOME FORCING FOR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. WESTERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY VEERS FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET THE PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN
RIGHT TOWARDS NORTH OF OUR AREA THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL PRODUCE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 4.5
INCHES ALONG THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS FOR THURSDAY.

ANOTHER VORTICITY LOBE CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ENHANCING SNOW OVER THE LOWLANDS...AND UPSLOPE SNOW OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

USED THE SUPERBLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ARCTIC FRONT THIS WEEKEND...WILL BRING IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST.
OVERALL...ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FIGURED FOR SATURDAY...AND MAINLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS. WITH THE VERY COLD
AIR...EXPECT A RATHER LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND. BASED ON
TIMING OF THE FRONT...COULD BE FALLING TEMPERATURES EARLY ON
SATURDAY...BEFORE BECOMING SOMEWHAT STEADY DURING THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUITE COLD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A
GRADUALLY CLEARING SKY...AND -24 AIR AT 850MB IN PLACE. WENT BELOW
GUIDANCE ACROSS THE CWA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS MOUNTAINOUS VALLEYS
SUCH AS AT KEKN.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
THIS LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY SNOW EVENT...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF A RAIN SNOW MIX ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z WEDNESDAY THRU 18Z THURSDAY...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY BE TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES FROM WEST TO
EAST FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHLY
VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS OUTSIDE OF SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT IFR VSBY IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. GUSTY WEST WINDS
10 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY MOUNTAINS.

FOR TONIGHT...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS. VFR CEILINGS REACH
OHIO RIVER BY 07Z...MVFR CEILINGS WITH FLURRIES OVER REMAINING
LOW LANDS. SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN
MOUNTAINS. GUSTY WEST WINDS WINDS CONTINUE RIDGETOPS WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS ELSEWHERE.

AFTER 12Z...VFR SCT-BKN VFR STRATOCU SPREADING EAST TO A CKB-CRW
LINE BY 18Z...SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF WITH GENERALLY MVFR
CEILINGS MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ENDING OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...ALONG
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS...MAY BE SLOWER THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
SOME IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LINGER OVER WV MOUNTAINS INTO
THURSDAY. IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT TIMES FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>036.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ037>040.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>087.
KY...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JMV



000
FXUS61 KRLX 101828
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
128 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY FOR A BRIEF
LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. TROUGH RE-ESTABLISHES FRIDAY-SATURDAY
WITH RETURN OF SNOW SHOWERS AND EVEN COLDER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

1:00 PM UPDATE. EXPIRED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR KENTUCKY.

10:00 AM UPDATE...INCREASED POPS THIS MORNING OVER SOUTH AND WEST
PORTIONS OF AREA PER RADAR/OBS AND HI RES MODEL VORT MAX MOVING
ACROSS THAT AREA. ANOTHER VORT MAX OVER CENTRAL OHIO WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON....AND
INCREASED POPS THERE. BEHIND THIS SECOND VORT MAX...BACK EDGE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE AND SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOWERS SHIFT RAPIDLY EAST
INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY EVENING....WITH LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE
LOW LANDS. GENERAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH STILL LOOK
GOOD...WITH THE TYPICAL LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ANY NARROW SNOW
BAND. NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES.

PREV DISCN...
A POTPOURRI OF CHANGES NEEDED TO ADVISORIES BASED ON SNOW SHOWERS
PERSISTING INTO OR REGENERATING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS...AND LINGERING INTO THU IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGHEST
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN WILL NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING.

THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A DEEP UPPER LEVEL L/W TROUGH MOVING
SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S. IT WILL SLOWLY START TO LIFT
OUT TONIGHT. THIS TROUGH HAS BECOME LARGELY DEFINED BY A
NEGATIVELY TILTED AXIS THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
IT..AND DIURNAL HEATING...ARE LIKELY TO FILL THE RADAR SCOPE WITH
A POPCORN PATTERN OF NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS BY THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE NEARLY AUTO CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.

OTHERWISE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR SNOW SHOWERS IN AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

BLENDED IN A COMBINATION OF NAM...RUC AND LAMP TEMPERATURES AND
DEW POINTS TODAY...AND THEN BIAS CORRECTED MET/MAV FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. WINDS WERE DERIVED FROM THE NAM USING THE
RUC METHOD FOR GUSTS...OFF WHICH WIND SPEEDS WERE MODULATED.

WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IS
LEFT TO EXPIRE AT 1 PM FOR THE NE KY COUNTIES...BUT EXTENDED
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE LOWLAND COUNTIES AND SW VA UNTIL 6 PM
TONIGHT...AND IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY.
FURTHER...THE ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY FOR THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES OF POCAHONTAS AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES
WHERE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WAS HOISTED FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING FOR WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -20C.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
WEDNESDAY. THE LOW STARTS TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA WED NT AND THU.

A SERIES OF VORTICITY LOBES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
TROUGH TO KEEP SOME FORCING FOR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. WESTERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY VEERS FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET THE PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN
RIGHT TOWARDS NORTH OF OUR AREA THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL PRODUCE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 4.5
INCHES ALONG THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS FOR THURSDAY.

ANOTHER VORTICITY LOBE CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ENHANCING SNOW OVER THE LOWLANDS...AND UPSLOPE SNOW OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

USED THE SUPERBLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ARCTIC FRONT THIS WEEKEND...WILL BRING IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST.
OVERALL...ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FIGURED FOR SATURDAY...AND MAINLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS. WITH THE VERY COLD
AIR...EXPECT A RATHER LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND. BASED ON
TIMING OF THE FRONT...COULD BE FALLING TEMPERATURES EARLY ON
SATURDAY...BEFORE BECOMING SOMEWHAT STEADY DURING THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUITE COLD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A
GRADUALLY CLEARING SKY...AND -24 AIR AT 850MB IN PLACE. WENT BELOW
GUIDANCE ACROSS THE CWA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS MOUNTAINOUS VALLEYS
SUCH AS AT KEKN.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
THIS LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY SNOW EVENT...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF A RAIN SNOW MIX ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z WEDNESDAY THRU 18Z THURSDAY...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY BE TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES FROM WEST TO
EAST FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHLY
VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS OUTSIDE OF SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT IFR VSBY IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. GUSTY WEST WINDS
10 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY MOUNTAINS.

FOR TONIGHT...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS. VFR CEILINGS REACH
OHIO RIVER BY 07Z...MVFR CEILINGS WITH FLURRIES OVER REMAINING
LOW LANDS. SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN
MOUNTAINS. GUSTY WEST WINDS WINDS CONTINUE RIDGETOPS WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS ELSEWHERE.

AFTER 12Z...VFR SCT-BKN VFR STRATOCU SPREADING EAST TO A CKB-CRW
LINE BY 18Z...SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF WITH GENERALLY MVFR
CEILINGS MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ENDING OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...ALONG
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS...MAY BE SLOWER THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
SOME IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LINGER OVER WV MOUNTAINS INTO
THURSDAY. IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT TIMES FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>036.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ037>040.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>087.
KY...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JMV



000
FXUS61 KRLX 101828
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
128 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY FOR A BRIEF
LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. TROUGH RE-ESTABLISHES FRIDAY-SATURDAY
WITH RETURN OF SNOW SHOWERS AND EVEN COLDER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

1:00 PM UPDATE. EXPIRED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR KENTUCKY.

10:00 AM UPDATE...INCREASED POPS THIS MORNING OVER SOUTH AND WEST
PORTIONS OF AREA PER RADAR/OBS AND HI RES MODEL VORT MAX MOVING
ACROSS THAT AREA. ANOTHER VORT MAX OVER CENTRAL OHIO WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON....AND
INCREASED POPS THERE. BEHIND THIS SECOND VORT MAX...BACK EDGE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE AND SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOWERS SHIFT RAPIDLY EAST
INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY EVENING....WITH LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE
LOW LANDS. GENERAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH STILL LOOK
GOOD...WITH THE TYPICAL LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ANY NARROW SNOW
BAND. NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES.

PREV DISCN...
A POTPOURRI OF CHANGES NEEDED TO ADVISORIES BASED ON SNOW SHOWERS
PERSISTING INTO OR REGENERATING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS...AND LINGERING INTO THU IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGHEST
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN WILL NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING.

THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A DEEP UPPER LEVEL L/W TROUGH MOVING
SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S. IT WILL SLOWLY START TO LIFT
OUT TONIGHT. THIS TROUGH HAS BECOME LARGELY DEFINED BY A
NEGATIVELY TILTED AXIS THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
IT..AND DIURNAL HEATING...ARE LIKELY TO FILL THE RADAR SCOPE WITH
A POPCORN PATTERN OF NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS BY THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE NEARLY AUTO CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.

OTHERWISE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR SNOW SHOWERS IN AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

BLENDED IN A COMBINATION OF NAM...RUC AND LAMP TEMPERATURES AND
DEW POINTS TODAY...AND THEN BIAS CORRECTED MET/MAV FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. WINDS WERE DERIVED FROM THE NAM USING THE
RUC METHOD FOR GUSTS...OFF WHICH WIND SPEEDS WERE MODULATED.

WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IS
LEFT TO EXPIRE AT 1 PM FOR THE NE KY COUNTIES...BUT EXTENDED
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE LOWLAND COUNTIES AND SW VA UNTIL 6 PM
TONIGHT...AND IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY.
FURTHER...THE ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY FOR THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES OF POCAHONTAS AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES
WHERE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WAS HOISTED FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING FOR WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -20C.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
WEDNESDAY. THE LOW STARTS TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA WED NT AND THU.

A SERIES OF VORTICITY LOBES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
TROUGH TO KEEP SOME FORCING FOR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. WESTERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY VEERS FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET THE PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN
RIGHT TOWARDS NORTH OF OUR AREA THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL PRODUCE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 4.5
INCHES ALONG THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS FOR THURSDAY.

ANOTHER VORTICITY LOBE CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ENHANCING SNOW OVER THE LOWLANDS...AND UPSLOPE SNOW OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

USED THE SUPERBLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ARCTIC FRONT THIS WEEKEND...WILL BRING IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST.
OVERALL...ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FIGURED FOR SATURDAY...AND MAINLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS. WITH THE VERY COLD
AIR...EXPECT A RATHER LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND. BASED ON
TIMING OF THE FRONT...COULD BE FALLING TEMPERATURES EARLY ON
SATURDAY...BEFORE BECOMING SOMEWHAT STEADY DURING THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUITE COLD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A
GRADUALLY CLEARING SKY...AND -24 AIR AT 850MB IN PLACE. WENT BELOW
GUIDANCE ACROSS THE CWA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS MOUNTAINOUS VALLEYS
SUCH AS AT KEKN.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
THIS LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY SNOW EVENT...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF A RAIN SNOW MIX ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z WEDNESDAY THRU 18Z THURSDAY...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY BE TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES FROM WEST TO
EAST FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHLY
VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS OUTSIDE OF SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT IFR VSBY IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. GUSTY WEST WINDS
10 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY MOUNTAINS.

FOR TONIGHT...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS. VFR CEILINGS REACH
OHIO RIVER BY 07Z...MVFR CEILINGS WITH FLURRIES OVER REMAINING
LOW LANDS. SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN
MOUNTAINS. GUSTY WEST WINDS WINDS CONTINUE RIDGETOPS WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS ELSEWHERE.

AFTER 12Z...VFR SCT-BKN VFR STRATOCU SPREADING EAST TO A CKB-CRW
LINE BY 18Z...SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF WITH GENERALLY MVFR
CEILINGS MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ENDING OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...ALONG
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS...MAY BE SLOWER THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
SOME IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LINGER OVER WV MOUNTAINS INTO
THURSDAY. IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT TIMES FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>036.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ037>040.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>087.
KY...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JMV



000
FXUS61 KRLX 101517
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1017 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY FOR A BRIEF
LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. TROUGH RE-ESTABLISHES FRIDAY-SATURDAY
WITH RETURN OF SNOW SHOWERS AND EVEN COLDER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...INCREASED POPS THIS MORNING OVER SOUTH AND WEST
PORTIONS OF AREA PER RADAR/OBS AND HI RES MODEL VORT MAX MOVING
ACROSS THAT AREA. ANOTHER VORT MAX OVER CENTRAL OHIO WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON....AND
INCREASED POPS THERE. BEHIND THIS SECOND VORT MAX...BACK EDGE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE AND SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOWERS SHIFT RAPIDLY EAST
INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY EVENING....WITH LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE
LOW LANDS. GENERAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH STILL LOOK
GOOD...WITH THE TYPICAL LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ANY NARROW SNOW
BAND. NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES.

PREV DISCN...
A POTPOURRI OF CHANGES NEEDED TO ADVISORIES BASED ON SNOW SHOWERS
PERSISTING INTO OR REGENERATING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS...AND LINGERING INTO THU IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGHEST
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN WILL NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING.

THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A DEEP UPPER LEVEL L/W TROUGH MOVING
SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S. IT WILL SLOWLY START TO LIFT
OUT TONIGHT. THIS TROUGH HAS BECOME LARGELY DEFINED BY A
NEGATIVELY TILTED AXIS THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
IT..AND DIURNAL HEATING...ARE LIKELY TO FILL THE RADAR SCOPE WITH
A POPCORN PATTERN OF NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS BY THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE NEARLY AUTO CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.

OTHERWISE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR SNOW SHOWERS IN AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

BLENDED IN A COMBINATION OF NAM...RUC AND LAMP TEMPERATURES AND
DEW POINTS TODAY...AND THEN BIAS CORRECTED MET/MAV FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. WINDS WERE DERIVED FROM THE NAM USING THE
RUC METHOD FOR GUSTS...OFF WHICH WIND SPEEDS WERE MODULATED.

WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IS
LEFT TO EXPIRE AT 1 PM FOR THE NE KY COUNTIES...BUT EXTENDED
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE LOWLAND COUNTIES AND SW VA UNTIL 6 PM
TONIGHT...AND IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY.
FURTHER...THE ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY FOR THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES OF POCAHONTAS AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES
WHERE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WAS HOISTED FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING FOR WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -20C.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
WEDNESDAY. THE LOW STARTS TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA WED NT AND THU.

A SERIES OF VORTICITY LOBES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
TROUGH TO KEEP SOME FORCING FOR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. WESTERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY VEERS FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET THE PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN
RIGHT TOWARDS NORTH OF OUR AREA THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL PRODUCE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 4.5
INCHES ALONG THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS FOR THURSDAY.

ANOTHER VORTICITY LOBE CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ENHANCING SNOW OVER THE LOWLANDS...AND UPSLOPE SNOW OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

USED THE SUPERBLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ARCTIC FRONT THIS WEEKEND...WILL BRING IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST.
OVERALL...ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FIGURED FOR SATURDAY...AND MAINLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS. WITH THE VERY COLD
AIR...EXPECT A RATHER LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND. BASED ON
TIMING OF THE FRONT...COULD BE FALLING TEMPERATURES EARLY ON
SATURDAY...BEFORE BECOMING SOMEWHAT STEADY DURING THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUITE COLD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A
GRADUALLY CLEARING SKY...AND -24 AIR AT 850MB IN PLACE. WENT BELOW
GUIDANCE ACROSS THE CWA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS MOUNTAINOUS VALLEYS
SUCH AS AT KEKN.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
THIS LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY SNOW EVENT...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF A RAIN SNOW MIX ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA NEXT 18 HOURS...KEEPING
MVFR CONDITIONS COMMON IN SNOW SHOWERS. IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WHICH ARE MOST LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS
PERIOD...BUT ALSO ACROSS NRN WV AND ERN OHIO THIS AFTERNOON...AS
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WITHIN THE LARGER SYSTEM.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON ACCOUNT OF THE TIMING OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS AND THE HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS AS A RESULT. TEMPO
GROUPS FOR IFR CONDITIONS WERE ADDED MIDDAY INTO THIS AFTERNOON
WHEN SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOST NUMEROUS.

SFC FLOW WILL BE W TO SW AND A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES BENEATH LIGHT TO
MODERATE W FLOW ALOFT TODAY THAT BECOMES NW TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF IFR WILL VARY IN SNOW
SHOWERS. TAF VSBY MORE VARIABLE THAN INDICATED IN DETERMINISTIC
TAF FORECAST. IN PARTICULAR...SHOW SHOWERS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ARE LIKELY TO DOT THE RADAR LIKE POPCORN THIS AFTERNOON.
IFR CONDITIONS CAN EASILY OCCUR BENEATH ANY OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EST 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
SOME IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LINGER OVER WV MOUNTAINS INTO
THURSDAY. IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT TIMES FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>036.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ037>040.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>087.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM/JMV




000
FXUS61 KRLX 101048
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
548 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY FOR A BRIEF
LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. TROUGH RE-ESTABLISHES FRIDAY-SATURDAY
WITH RETURN OF SNOW SHOWERS AND EVEN COLDER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
600 AM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK.

PREV DISCN...
A POTPOURRI OF CHANGES NEEDED TO ADVISORIES BASED ON SNOW SHOWERS
PERSISTING INTO OR REGENERATING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS...AND LINGERING INTO THU IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGHEST
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN WILL NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING.

THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A DEEP UPPER LEVEL L/W TROUGH MOVING
SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S. IT WILL SLOWLY START TO LIFT
OUT TONIGHT. THIS TROUGH HAS BECOME LARGELY DEFINED BY A
NEGATIVELY TILTED AXIS THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
IT..AND DIURNAL HEATING...ARE LIKELY TO FILL THE RADAR SCOPE WITH
A POPCORN PATTERN OF NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS BY THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE NEARLY AUTO CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.

OTHERWISE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR SNOW SHOWERS IN AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

BLENDED IN A COMBINATION OF NAM...RUC AND LAMP TEMPERATURES AND
DEW POINTS TODAY...AND THEN BIAS CORRECTED MET/MAV FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. WINDS WERE DERIVED FROM THE NAM USING THE
RUC METHOD FOR GUSTS...OFF WHICH WIND SPEEDS WERE MODULATED.

WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IS
LEFT TO EXPIRE AT 1 PM FOR THE NE KY COUNTIES...BUT EXTENDED
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE LOWLAND COUNTIES AND SW VA UNTIL 6 PM
TONIGHT...AND IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY.
FURTHER...THE ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY FOR THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES OF POCAHONTAS AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES
WHERE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WAS HOISTED FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING FOR WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -20C.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
WEDNESDAY. THE LOW STARTS TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA WED NT AND THU.

A SERIES OF VORTICITY LOBES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
TROUGH TO KEEP SOME FORCING FOR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. WESTERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY VEERS FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET THE PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN
RIGHT TOWARDS NORTH OF OUR AREA THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL PRODUCE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 4.5
INCHES ALONG THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS FOR THURSDAY.

ANOTHER VORTICITY LOBE CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ENHANCING SNOW OVER THE LOWLANDS...AND UPSLOPE SNOW OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

USED THE SUPERBLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ARCTIC FRONT THIS WEEKEND...WILL BRING IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST.
OVERALL...ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FIGURED FOR SATURDAY...AND MAINLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS. WITH THE VERY COLD
AIR...EXPECT A RATHER LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND. BASED ON
TIMING OF THE FRONT...COULD BE FALLING TEMPERATURES EARLY ON
SATURDAY...BEFORE BECOMING SOMEWHAT STEADY DURING THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUITE COLD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A
GRADUALLY CLEARING SKY...AND -24 AIR AT 850MB IN PLACE. WENT BELOW
GUIDANCE ACROSS THE CWA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS MOUNTAINOUS VALLEYS
SUCH AS AT KEKN.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
THIS LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY SNOW EVENT...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF A RAIN SNOW MIX ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA NEXT 18 HOURS...KEEPING
MVFR CONDITIONS COMMON IN SNOW SHOWERS. IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WHICH ARE MOST LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS
PERIOD...BUT ALSO ACROSS NRN WV AND ERN OHIO THIS AFTERNOON...AS
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WITHIN THE LARGER SYSTEM.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON ACCOUNT OF THE TIMING OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS AND THE HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS AS A RESULT. TEMPO
GROUPS FOR IFR CONDITIONS WERE ADDED MIDDAY INTO THIS AFTERNOON
WHEN SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOST NUMEROUS.

SFC FLOW WILL BE W TO SW AND A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES BENEATH LIGHT TO
MODERATE W FLOW ALOFT TODAY THAT BECOMES NW TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF IFR WILL VARY IN SNOW
SHOWERS. TAF VSBY MORE VARIABLE THAN INDICATED IN DETERMINISTIC
TAF FORECAST. IN PARTICULAR...SHOW SHOWERS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ARE LIKELY TO DOT THE RADAR LIKE POPCORN THIS AFTERNOON.
IFR CONDITIONS CAN EASILY OCCUR BENEATH ANY OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               WED 02/10/16
UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EST 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
SOME IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LINGER OVER WV MOUNTAINS INTO
THURSDAY. IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT TIMES FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>036.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ037>040.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>087.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM




000
FXUS61 KRLX 101003
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
503 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY FOR A BRIEF
LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. TROUGH RE-ESTABLISHES FRIDAY-SATURDAY
WITH RETURN OF SNOW SHOWERS AND EVEN COLDER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A POTPOURRI OF CHANGES NEEDED TO ADVISORIES BASED ON SNOW SHOWERS
PERSISTING INTO OR REGENERATING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS...AND LINGERING INTO THU IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGHEST
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN WILL NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING.

THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A DEEP UPPER LEVEL L/W TROUGH MOVING
SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S. IT WILL SLOWLY START TO LIFT
OUT TONIGHT. THIS TROUGH HAS BECOME LARGELY DEFINED BY A
NEGATIVELY TILTED AXIS THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
IT..AND DIURNAL HEATING...ARE LIKELY TO FILL THE RADAR SCOPE WITH
A POPCORN PATTERN OF NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS BY THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE NEARLY AUTO CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.

OTHERWISE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR SNOW SHOWERS IN AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

BLENDED IN A COMBINATION OF NAM...RUC AND LAMP TEMPERATURES AND
DEW POINTS TODAY...AND THEN BIAS CORRECTED MET/MAV FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. WINDS WERE DERIVED FROM THE NAM USING THE
RUC METHOD FOR GUSTS...OFF WHICH WIND SPEEDS WERE MODULATED.

WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IS
LEFT TO EXPIRE AT 1 PM FOR THE NE KY COUNTIES...BUT EXTENDED
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE LOWLAND COUNTIES AND SW VA UNTIL 6 PM
TONIGHT...AND IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY.
FURTHER...THE ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY FOR THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES OF POCAHONTAS AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES
WHERE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WAS HOISTED FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING FOR WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -20C.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
WEDNESDAY. THE LOW STARTS TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA WED NT AND THU.

A SERIES OF VORTICITY LOBES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
TROUGH TO KEEP SOME FORCING FOR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. WESTERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY VEERS FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET THE PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN
RIGHT TOWARDS NORTH OF OUR AREA THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL PRODUCE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 4.5
INCHES ALONG THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS FOR THURSDAY.

ANOTHER VORTICITY LOBE CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ENHANCING SNOW OVER THE LOWLANDS...AND UPSLOPE SNOW OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

USED THE SUPERBLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ARCTIC FRONT THIS WEEKEND...WILL BRING IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST.
OVERALL...ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FIGURED FOR SATURDAY...AND MAINLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS. WITH THE VERY COLD
AIR...EXPECT A RATHER LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND. BASED ON
TIMING OF THE FRONT...COULD BE FALLING TEMPERATURES EARLY ON
SATURDAY...BEFORE BECOMING SOMEWHAT STEADY DURING THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUITE COLD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A
GRADUALLY CLEARING SKY...AND -24 AIR AT 850MB IN PLACE. WENT BELOW
GUIDANCE ACROSS THE CWA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS MOUNTAINOUS VALLEYS
SUCH AS AT KEKN.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
THIS LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY SNOW EVENT...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF A RAIN SNOW MIX ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA NEXT 24
HOURS...KEEPING MVFR CONDITIONS COMMON IN SNOW SHOWERS. IFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WHICH ARE MOST LIKELY
IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS PERIOD...BUT ALSO ACROSS NRN WV AND ERN
OHIO WED AFTERNOON...AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WITHIN
THE LARGER SYSTEM.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON ACCOUNT OF THE TIMING OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS AND THE HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS AS A RESULT.

SFC FLOW WILL BE W TO SW AND A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES BENEATH LIGHT TO
MODERATE W TO NW FLOW ALOFT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF IFR WILL VARY IN SNOW
SHOWERS. TAF VSBY MORE VARIABLE THAN INDICATED IN DETERMINISTIC
TAF FORECAST. IN PARTICULAR...SHOW SHOWERS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ARE LIKELY TO DOT THE RADAR LIKE POPCORN WED AFTERNOON. IFR
CONDITIONS CAN EASILY OCCUR BENEATH ANY OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               WED 02/10/16
UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EST 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
SOME IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LINGER OVER WV MOUNTAINS INTO
THURSDAY. IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT TIMES FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>036.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ037>040.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>087.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM




000
FXUS61 KRLX 100603
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
103 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY FOR A BRIEF
LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. TROUGH RE-ESTABLISHES FRIDAY-SATURDAY
WITH RETURN OF SNOW SHOWERS AND EVEN COLDER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
100 AM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK.

715 PM UPDATE...
UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REMOVE THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE 10
COUNTIES IN THE NORTHEAST. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS STILL
VALID UNTIL 1 PM TOMORROW.

AT 00Z A SNOW BURST IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL WV. AS IT MOVES OVER
OBSERVATION LOCATIONS VISIBILITIES ARE BEING REDUCED TO 1 MILE
AND A QUICK ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. ANOTHER AREA OF SNOW
IS SHOWING UP OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO BUT ACCUMULATIONS DON/T SEEM AS
GREAT. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT. AT
THIS TIME NO FORECAST UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AFTER ADDING WIRT AND RITCHIE COUNTIES TO THE SHORT
FUSE WARNING EARLIER THIS MORNING...NO MAJOR CHANGES IN OUR
HEADLINES IN THIS PROLONG 48 HOUR PLUS EPISODE. THE ONE CHANGE OF
NOTE...WAS TO DELAY THE ENDING TIMES ON WEDNESDAY.

STILL HAVE THE DEEPEST STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER OUR CENTRAL WV
MOUNTAINS...WITH THE SECONDARY MAX ALONG THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR FROM GRAFTON
TO PARKERSBURG/MARIETTA TO ATHENS. THESE STORM TOTAL SNOWS ARE FOR THE
WHOLE EPISODE THAT STARTED MONDAY NIGHT...SO 48 HOURS PLUS...IN DURATION.

OF COURSE...AS WE HAVE BEEN STRESSING...IN CONTRAST TO OUR JANUARY STORM...
THIS IS NOT AN ORGANIZED STORM. ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS. WITH THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...THE FLUFFY SNOW COULD MEAN MORE EFFICIENT ACCUMULATIONS.

THE 500 MB VORT HAS INCREASE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 18Z
IN SOUTHERN OHIO AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.  ACCUMULATIONS DURING
THE DAY UNDER THAT AREA...HAVE BEEN MOSTLY AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH 20Z.

WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...FLUFFY SNOW COULD MEAN MORE EFFICIENT
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS. ANY ROUND COULD LEAVE A HALF INCH
TO AN INCH OF FLUFF.

LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURE TO AROUND 5 ABOVE ZERO...AND LOWERED BKW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLATEAU TO 14 DEGS BASED ON 850 TEMPS OF MINUS 15C.

TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO RISE AFTER SUNSET DURING 12 TO 15Z WEDNESDAY IN THE
COLD POOL. HAVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE NO HIGHER THAN 10 DEGS AT SNOWSHOE ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING DEEPER MOISTURE PULLING OUT WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT
COLD AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
CREATE SOME LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

BY FRIDAY...MODELS DISAGREE ON A DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE AREA.
ECMWF...NAM...AND CANADIAN ARE DEVELOPING THE SYSTEM MORE OVER THE
REGION...WHILE THE GFS AND SREF ARE MORE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH
WITH THE SYSTEM. WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH CHANCE
POPS UNTIL MODELS AGREE ON A SOLUTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ARCTIC FRONT THIS WEEKEND...WILL BRING IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST.
OVERALL...ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FIGURED FOR SATURDAY...AND MAINLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS. WITH THE VERY COLD
AIR...EXPECT A RATHER LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND. BASED ON
TIMING OF THE FRONT...COULD BE FALLING TEMPERATURES EARLY ON
SATURDAY...BEFORE BECOMING SOMEWHAT STEADY DURING THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUITE COLD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A
GRADUALLY CLEARING SKY...AND -24 AIR AT 850MB IN PLACE. WENT BELOW
GUIDANCE ACROSS THE CWA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS MOUNTAINOUS VALLEYS
SUCH AS AT KEKN.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
THIS LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY SNOW EVENT...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF A RAIN SNOW MIX ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA NEXT 24
HOURS...KEEPING MVFR CONDITIONS COMMON IN SNOW SHOWERS. IFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WHICH ARE MOST LIKELY
IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS PERIOD...BUT ALSO ACROSS NRN WV AND ERN
OHIO WED AFTERNOON...AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WITHIN
THE LARGER SYSTEM.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON ACCOUNT OF THE TIMING OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS AND THE HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS AS A RESULT.

SFC FLOW WILL BE W TO SW AND A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES BENEATH LIGHT TO
MODERATE W TO NW FLOW ALOFT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF IFR WILL VARY IN SNOW
SHOWERS. TAF VSBY MORE VARIABLE THAN INDICATED IN DETERMINISTIC
TAF FORECAST. IN PARTICULAR...SHOW SHOWERS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ARE LIKELY TO DOT THE RADAR LIKE POPCORN WED AFTERNOON. IFR
CONDITIONS CAN EASILY OCCUR BENEATH ANY OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  WED 02/10/16
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EST 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
SOME IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LINGER OVER WV MOUNTAINS INTO
THURSDAY. IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT TIMES FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.


&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>036.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ037>040-046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/RPY/SL
NEAR TERM...FB/KTB/TRM
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM




000
FXUS61 KRLX 100603
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
103 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY FOR A BRIEF
LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. TROUGH RE-ESTABLISHES FRIDAY-SATURDAY
WITH RETURN OF SNOW SHOWERS AND EVEN COLDER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
100 AM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK.

715 PM UPDATE...
UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REMOVE THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE 10
COUNTIES IN THE NORTHEAST. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS STILL
VALID UNTIL 1 PM TOMORROW.

AT 00Z A SNOW BURST IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL WV. AS IT MOVES OVER
OBSERVATION LOCATIONS VISIBILITIES ARE BEING REDUCED TO 1 MILE
AND A QUICK ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. ANOTHER AREA OF SNOW
IS SHOWING UP OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO BUT ACCUMULATIONS DON/T SEEM AS
GREAT. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT. AT
THIS TIME NO FORECAST UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AFTER ADDING WIRT AND RITCHIE COUNTIES TO THE SHORT
FUSE WARNING EARLIER THIS MORNING...NO MAJOR CHANGES IN OUR
HEADLINES IN THIS PROLONG 48 HOUR PLUS EPISODE. THE ONE CHANGE OF
NOTE...WAS TO DELAY THE ENDING TIMES ON WEDNESDAY.

STILL HAVE THE DEEPEST STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER OUR CENTRAL WV
MOUNTAINS...WITH THE SECONDARY MAX ALONG THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR FROM GRAFTON
TO PARKERSBURG/MARIETTA TO ATHENS. THESE STORM TOTAL SNOWS ARE FOR THE
WHOLE EPISODE THAT STARTED MONDAY NIGHT...SO 48 HOURS PLUS...IN DURATION.

OF COURSE...AS WE HAVE BEEN STRESSING...IN CONTRAST TO OUR JANUARY STORM...
THIS IS NOT AN ORGANIZED STORM. ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS. WITH THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...THE FLUFFY SNOW COULD MEAN MORE EFFICIENT ACCUMULATIONS.

THE 500 MB VORT HAS INCREASE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 18Z
IN SOUTHERN OHIO AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.  ACCUMULATIONS DURING
THE DAY UNDER THAT AREA...HAVE BEEN MOSTLY AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH 20Z.

WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...FLUFFY SNOW COULD MEAN MORE EFFICIENT
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS. ANY ROUND COULD LEAVE A HALF INCH
TO AN INCH OF FLUFF.

LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURE TO AROUND 5 ABOVE ZERO...AND LOWERED BKW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLATEAU TO 14 DEGS BASED ON 850 TEMPS OF MINUS 15C.

TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO RISE AFTER SUNSET DURING 12 TO 15Z WEDNESDAY IN THE
COLD POOL. HAVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE NO HIGHER THAN 10 DEGS AT SNOWSHOE ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING DEEPER MOISTURE PULLING OUT WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT
COLD AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
CREATE SOME LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

BY FRIDAY...MODELS DISAGREE ON A DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE AREA.
ECMWF...NAM...AND CANADIAN ARE DEVELOPING THE SYSTEM MORE OVER THE
REGION...WHILE THE GFS AND SREF ARE MORE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH
WITH THE SYSTEM. WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH CHANCE
POPS UNTIL MODELS AGREE ON A SOLUTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ARCTIC FRONT THIS WEEKEND...WILL BRING IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST.
OVERALL...ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FIGURED FOR SATURDAY...AND MAINLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS. WITH THE VERY COLD
AIR...EXPECT A RATHER LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND. BASED ON
TIMING OF THE FRONT...COULD BE FALLING TEMPERATURES EARLY ON
SATURDAY...BEFORE BECOMING SOMEWHAT STEADY DURING THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUITE COLD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A
GRADUALLY CLEARING SKY...AND -24 AIR AT 850MB IN PLACE. WENT BELOW
GUIDANCE ACROSS THE CWA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS MOUNTAINOUS VALLEYS
SUCH AS AT KEKN.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
THIS LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY SNOW EVENT...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF A RAIN SNOW MIX ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA NEXT 24
HOURS...KEEPING MVFR CONDITIONS COMMON IN SNOW SHOWERS. IFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WHICH ARE MOST LIKELY
IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS PERIOD...BUT ALSO ACROSS NRN WV AND ERN
OHIO WED AFTERNOON...AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WITHIN
THE LARGER SYSTEM.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON ACCOUNT OF THE TIMING OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS AND THE HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS AS A RESULT.

SFC FLOW WILL BE W TO SW AND A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES BENEATH LIGHT TO
MODERATE W TO NW FLOW ALOFT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF IFR WILL VARY IN SNOW
SHOWERS. TAF VSBY MORE VARIABLE THAN INDICATED IN DETERMINISTIC
TAF FORECAST. IN PARTICULAR...SHOW SHOWERS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ARE LIKELY TO DOT THE RADAR LIKE POPCORN WED AFTERNOON. IFR
CONDITIONS CAN EASILY OCCUR BENEATH ANY OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  WED 02/10/16
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EST 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
SOME IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LINGER OVER WV MOUNTAINS INTO
THURSDAY. IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT TIMES FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.


&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>036.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ037>040-046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/RPY/SL
NEAR TERM...FB/KTB/TRM
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM



000
FXUS61 KRLX 100603
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
103 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY FOR A BRIEF
LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. TROUGH RE-ESTABLISHES FRIDAY-SATURDAY
WITH RETURN OF SNOW SHOWERS AND EVEN COLDER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
100 AM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK.

715 PM UPDATE...
UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REMOVE THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE 10
COUNTIES IN THE NORTHEAST. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS STILL
VALID UNTIL 1 PM TOMORROW.

AT 00Z A SNOW BURST IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL WV. AS IT MOVES OVER
OBSERVATION LOCATIONS VISIBILITIES ARE BEING REDUCED TO 1 MILE
AND A QUICK ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. ANOTHER AREA OF SNOW
IS SHOWING UP OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO BUT ACCUMULATIONS DON/T SEEM AS
GREAT. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT. AT
THIS TIME NO FORECAST UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AFTER ADDING WIRT AND RITCHIE COUNTIES TO THE SHORT
FUSE WARNING EARLIER THIS MORNING...NO MAJOR CHANGES IN OUR
HEADLINES IN THIS PROLONG 48 HOUR PLUS EPISODE. THE ONE CHANGE OF
NOTE...WAS TO DELAY THE ENDING TIMES ON WEDNESDAY.

STILL HAVE THE DEEPEST STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER OUR CENTRAL WV
MOUNTAINS...WITH THE SECONDARY MAX ALONG THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR FROM GRAFTON
TO PARKERSBURG/MARIETTA TO ATHENS. THESE STORM TOTAL SNOWS ARE FOR THE
WHOLE EPISODE THAT STARTED MONDAY NIGHT...SO 48 HOURS PLUS...IN DURATION.

OF COURSE...AS WE HAVE BEEN STRESSING...IN CONTRAST TO OUR JANUARY STORM...
THIS IS NOT AN ORGANIZED STORM. ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS. WITH THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...THE FLUFFY SNOW COULD MEAN MORE EFFICIENT ACCUMULATIONS.

THE 500 MB VORT HAS INCREASE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 18Z
IN SOUTHERN OHIO AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.  ACCUMULATIONS DURING
THE DAY UNDER THAT AREA...HAVE BEEN MOSTLY AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH 20Z.

WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...FLUFFY SNOW COULD MEAN MORE EFFICIENT
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS. ANY ROUND COULD LEAVE A HALF INCH
TO AN INCH OF FLUFF.

LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURE TO AROUND 5 ABOVE ZERO...AND LOWERED BKW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLATEAU TO 14 DEGS BASED ON 850 TEMPS OF MINUS 15C.

TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO RISE AFTER SUNSET DURING 12 TO 15Z WEDNESDAY IN THE
COLD POOL. HAVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE NO HIGHER THAN 10 DEGS AT SNOWSHOE ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING DEEPER MOISTURE PULLING OUT WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT
COLD AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
CREATE SOME LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

BY FRIDAY...MODELS DISAGREE ON A DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE AREA.
ECMWF...NAM...AND CANADIAN ARE DEVELOPING THE SYSTEM MORE OVER THE
REGION...WHILE THE GFS AND SREF ARE MORE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH
WITH THE SYSTEM. WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH CHANCE
POPS UNTIL MODELS AGREE ON A SOLUTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ARCTIC FRONT THIS WEEKEND...WILL BRING IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST.
OVERALL...ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FIGURED FOR SATURDAY...AND MAINLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS. WITH THE VERY COLD
AIR...EXPECT A RATHER LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND. BASED ON
TIMING OF THE FRONT...COULD BE FALLING TEMPERATURES EARLY ON
SATURDAY...BEFORE BECOMING SOMEWHAT STEADY DURING THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUITE COLD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A
GRADUALLY CLEARING SKY...AND -24 AIR AT 850MB IN PLACE. WENT BELOW
GUIDANCE ACROSS THE CWA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS MOUNTAINOUS VALLEYS
SUCH AS AT KEKN.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
THIS LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY SNOW EVENT...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF A RAIN SNOW MIX ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA NEXT 24
HOURS...KEEPING MVFR CONDITIONS COMMON IN SNOW SHOWERS. IFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WHICH ARE MOST LIKELY
IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS PERIOD...BUT ALSO ACROSS NRN WV AND ERN
OHIO WED AFTERNOON...AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WITHIN
THE LARGER SYSTEM.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON ACCOUNT OF THE TIMING OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS AND THE HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS AS A RESULT.

SFC FLOW WILL BE W TO SW AND A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES BENEATH LIGHT TO
MODERATE W TO NW FLOW ALOFT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF IFR WILL VARY IN SNOW
SHOWERS. TAF VSBY MORE VARIABLE THAN INDICATED IN DETERMINISTIC
TAF FORECAST. IN PARTICULAR...SHOW SHOWERS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ARE LIKELY TO DOT THE RADAR LIKE POPCORN WED AFTERNOON. IFR
CONDITIONS CAN EASILY OCCUR BENEATH ANY OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  WED 02/10/16
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EST 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
SOME IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LINGER OVER WV MOUNTAINS INTO
THURSDAY. IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT TIMES FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.


&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>036.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ037>040-046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/RPY/SL
NEAR TERM...FB/KTB/TRM
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM




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