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000
FXUS61 KRLX 300800
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
400 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TODAY AND TONIGHT. COLD FRONT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SWIFT MOVING COLD FRONT EXITS THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING
IN A CLEAN SWEEPING FASHION WITHOUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THEREFORE...DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SHOULD SEE ONLY SOME FLAT
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL MIX SOME DRIER AIR BACK TO
THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BREEZY
CONDITIONS AT TIMES...BUT THE DRY AIR WILL NOT EXHIBIT THE LOW
DEWPOINTS SEEN BEFORE THE CURRENT FRONT ARRIVED.

AVOIDED THE MET GUIDANCE FOR THIS ISSUANCE AS THE ERROR POINTS WERE
TOO HIGH FOR THE PREVIOUS MAX TEMPS. INSTEAD...OPTED FOR THE BIAS
CORRECTED MAV...BUT MODIFIED HTS AND CRW WHICH LOOKED A LITTLE TOO
WARM TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LAST CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...WILL RAPIDLY DROP ACROSS THE AREA LATER TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. NOT TOO MUCH FANFARE IN THE WEATHER AS MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED. THE TRACK OF THE LOW ITSELF BY ALL THE MODELS WILL BE
JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. MOST OF THE DYNAMICS AND THUS THE RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE JUST NORTH OF
OUR AREA. WILL GENERALLY CONFINE CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO
NORTHERN AREAS. IN ANY CASE...ANY QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT. CHANGEABLE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIGGEST FEATURE...QUITE WARM TUESDAY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND COOLER WEDNESDAY. BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A MAJOR CHANGE IN THE PATTERN.
THIS CHANGE LEADS TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLING ACROSS THE AREA
LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY UNDER NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WITH THE
MEAN SURFACE HIGH SETTING UP OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...THE GULF
OF MEXICO MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE TAPPED AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
FEEDS INTO THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. WHILE THE DETAILS ARE YET TO BE
ESTABLISHED WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLING ALONG THE
FRONT...THE RESULT IN GENERAL WILL BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS. THE
FRONT WILL FINALLY GET A PUSH BY SATURDAY AS A SIGNIFICANT UPPER
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH. QUITE WARM THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...COOLER FRIDAY WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC. WHILE A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IS EXPECTED MID
TO LATE WEEK...IT MAY BE HAMPERED BY SHOWERS ON LATE THURSDAY AND
INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A PESKY DISTURBANCE COMES OUT OF THE S STREAM
BEFORE HEIGHTS CAN BUILD. THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL BE FRIDAY EVENING. A
THE WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE SEASONAL AND MAINLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SEEING SOME GUSTS ACROSS THE NORTH DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING WITH
THE ONSET OF SHOWERS AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS. OTHERWISE...ONLY
EXPECTING BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS TONIGHT AND MVFR
CEILINGS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS AS QUICK LOW LEVEL DRYING
IS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z. BEYOND...WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST
SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DURING MIXING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RESTRICTIONS IN CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION COULD
BE LOWER THAN EXPECTED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    MON 03/30/15
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    M    M    H    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    M    H    H    M    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...26








000
FXUS61 KRLX 300800
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
400 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TODAY AND TONIGHT. COLD FRONT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SWIFT MOVING COLD FRONT EXITS THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING
IN A CLEAN SWEEPING FASHION WITHOUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THEREFORE...DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SHOULD SEE ONLY SOME FLAT
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL MIX SOME DRIER AIR BACK TO
THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BREEZY
CONDITIONS AT TIMES...BUT THE DRY AIR WILL NOT EXHIBIT THE LOW
DEWPOINTS SEEN BEFORE THE CURRENT FRONT ARRIVED.

AVOIDED THE MET GUIDANCE FOR THIS ISSUANCE AS THE ERROR POINTS WERE
TOO HIGH FOR THE PREVIOUS MAX TEMPS. INSTEAD...OPTED FOR THE BIAS
CORRECTED MAV...BUT MODIFIED HTS AND CRW WHICH LOOKED A LITTLE TOO
WARM TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LAST CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...WILL RAPIDLY DROP ACROSS THE AREA LATER TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. NOT TOO MUCH FANFARE IN THE WEATHER AS MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED. THE TRACK OF THE LOW ITSELF BY ALL THE MODELS WILL BE
JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. MOST OF THE DYNAMICS AND THUS THE RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE JUST NORTH OF
OUR AREA. WILL GENERALLY CONFINE CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO
NORTHERN AREAS. IN ANY CASE...ANY QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT. CHANGEABLE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIGGEST FEATURE...QUITE WARM TUESDAY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND COOLER WEDNESDAY. BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A MAJOR CHANGE IN THE PATTERN.
THIS CHANGE LEADS TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLING ACROSS THE AREA
LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY UNDER NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WITH THE
MEAN SURFACE HIGH SETTING UP OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...THE GULF
OF MEXICO MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE TAPPED AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
FEEDS INTO THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. WHILE THE DETAILS ARE YET TO BE
ESTABLISHED WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLING ALONG THE
FRONT...THE RESULT IN GENERAL WILL BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS. THE
FRONT WILL FINALLY GET A PUSH BY SATURDAY AS A SIGNIFICANT UPPER
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH. QUITE WARM THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...COOLER FRIDAY WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC. WHILE A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IS EXPECTED MID
TO LATE WEEK...IT MAY BE HAMPERED BY SHOWERS ON LATE THURSDAY AND
INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A PESKY DISTURBANCE COMES OUT OF THE S STREAM
BEFORE HEIGHTS CAN BUILD. THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL BE FRIDAY EVENING. A
THE WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE SEASONAL AND MAINLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SEEING SOME GUSTS ACROSS THE NORTH DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING WITH
THE ONSET OF SHOWERS AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS. OTHERWISE...ONLY
EXPECTING BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS TONIGHT AND MVFR
CEILINGS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS AS QUICK LOW LEVEL DRYING
IS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z. BEYOND...WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST
SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DURING MIXING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RESTRICTIONS IN CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION COULD
BE LOWER THAN EXPECTED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    MON 03/30/15
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    M    M    H    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    M    H    H    M    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS61 KRLX 300800
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
400 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TODAY AND TONIGHT. COLD FRONT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SWIFT MOVING COLD FRONT EXITS THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING
IN A CLEAN SWEEPING FASHION WITHOUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THEREFORE...DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SHOULD SEE ONLY SOME FLAT
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL MIX SOME DRIER AIR BACK TO
THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BREEZY
CONDITIONS AT TIMES...BUT THE DRY AIR WILL NOT EXHIBIT THE LOW
DEWPOINTS SEEN BEFORE THE CURRENT FRONT ARRIVED.

AVOIDED THE MET GUIDANCE FOR THIS ISSUANCE AS THE ERROR POINTS WERE
TOO HIGH FOR THE PREVIOUS MAX TEMPS. INSTEAD...OPTED FOR THE BIAS
CORRECTED MAV...BUT MODIFIED HTS AND CRW WHICH LOOKED A LITTLE TOO
WARM TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LAST CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...WILL RAPIDLY DROP ACROSS THE AREA LATER TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. NOT TOO MUCH FANFARE IN THE WEATHER AS MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED. THE TRACK OF THE LOW ITSELF BY ALL THE MODELS WILL BE
JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. MOST OF THE DYNAMICS AND THUS THE RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE JUST NORTH OF
OUR AREA. WILL GENERALLY CONFINE CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO
NORTHERN AREAS. IN ANY CASE...ANY QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT. CHANGEABLE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIGGEST FEATURE...QUITE WARM TUESDAY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND COOLER WEDNESDAY. BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A MAJOR CHANGE IN THE PATTERN.
THIS CHANGE LEADS TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLING ACROSS THE AREA
LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY UNDER NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WITH THE
MEAN SURFACE HIGH SETTING UP OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...THE GULF
OF MEXICO MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE TAPPED AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
FEEDS INTO THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. WHILE THE DETAILS ARE YET TO BE
ESTABLISHED WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLING ALONG THE
FRONT...THE RESULT IN GENERAL WILL BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS. THE
FRONT WILL FINALLY GET A PUSH BY SATURDAY AS A SIGNIFICANT UPPER
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH. QUITE WARM THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...COOLER FRIDAY WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC. WHILE A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IS EXPECTED MID
TO LATE WEEK...IT MAY BE HAMPERED BY SHOWERS ON LATE THURSDAY AND
INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A PESKY DISTURBANCE COMES OUT OF THE S STREAM
BEFORE HEIGHTS CAN BUILD. THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL BE FRIDAY EVENING. A
THE WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE SEASONAL AND MAINLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SEEING SOME GUSTS ACROSS THE NORTH DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING WITH
THE ONSET OF SHOWERS AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS. OTHERWISE...ONLY
EXPECTING BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS TONIGHT AND MVFR
CEILINGS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS AS QUICK LOW LEVEL DRYING
IS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z. BEYOND...WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST
SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DURING MIXING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RESTRICTIONS IN CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION COULD
BE LOWER THAN EXPECTED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    MON 03/30/15
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    M    M    H    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    M    H    H    M    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS61 KRLX 300800
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
400 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TODAY AND TONIGHT. COLD FRONT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SWIFT MOVING COLD FRONT EXITS THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING
IN A CLEAN SWEEPING FASHION WITHOUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THEREFORE...DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SHOULD SEE ONLY SOME FLAT
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL MIX SOME DRIER AIR BACK TO
THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BREEZY
CONDITIONS AT TIMES...BUT THE DRY AIR WILL NOT EXHIBIT THE LOW
DEWPOINTS SEEN BEFORE THE CURRENT FRONT ARRIVED.

AVOIDED THE MET GUIDANCE FOR THIS ISSUANCE AS THE ERROR POINTS WERE
TOO HIGH FOR THE PREVIOUS MAX TEMPS. INSTEAD...OPTED FOR THE BIAS
CORRECTED MAV...BUT MODIFIED HTS AND CRW WHICH LOOKED A LITTLE TOO
WARM TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LAST CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...WILL RAPIDLY DROP ACROSS THE AREA LATER TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. NOT TOO MUCH FANFARE IN THE WEATHER AS MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED. THE TRACK OF THE LOW ITSELF BY ALL THE MODELS WILL BE
JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. MOST OF THE DYNAMICS AND THUS THE RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE JUST NORTH OF
OUR AREA. WILL GENERALLY CONFINE CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO
NORTHERN AREAS. IN ANY CASE...ANY QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT. CHANGEABLE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIGGEST FEATURE...QUITE WARM TUESDAY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND COOLER WEDNESDAY. BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A MAJOR CHANGE IN THE PATTERN.
THIS CHANGE LEADS TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLING ACROSS THE AREA
LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY UNDER NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WITH THE
MEAN SURFACE HIGH SETTING UP OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...THE GULF
OF MEXICO MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE TAPPED AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
FEEDS INTO THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. WHILE THE DETAILS ARE YET TO BE
ESTABLISHED WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLING ALONG THE
FRONT...THE RESULT IN GENERAL WILL BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS. THE
FRONT WILL FINALLY GET A PUSH BY SATURDAY AS A SIGNIFICANT UPPER
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH. QUITE WARM THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...COOLER FRIDAY WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC. WHILE A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IS EXPECTED MID
TO LATE WEEK...IT MAY BE HAMPERED BY SHOWERS ON LATE THURSDAY AND
INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A PESKY DISTURBANCE COMES OUT OF THE S STREAM
BEFORE HEIGHTS CAN BUILD. THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL BE FRIDAY EVENING. A
THE WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE SEASONAL AND MAINLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SEEING SOME GUSTS ACROSS THE NORTH DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING WITH
THE ONSET OF SHOWERS AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS. OTHERWISE...ONLY
EXPECTING BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS TONIGHT AND MVFR
CEILINGS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS AS QUICK LOW LEVEL DRYING
IS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z. BEYOND...WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST
SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DURING MIXING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RESTRICTIONS IN CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION COULD
BE LOWER THAN EXPECTED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    MON 03/30/15
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    M    M    H    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    M    H    H    M    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...26








000
FXUS61 KRLX 300531
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
131 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL COLD FRONTS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE UP COMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
BASED ON THE LATEST MODELS...WILL INCREASE SKY COVER AROUND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
AS THEY MOVE THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. ANY PRECIP THAT DOES ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT WILL LIGHT AND
FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ONLY MADE
SMALL CHANGES IN THIS PERIOD AS CURRENT FORECAST STILL ON TRACK.

ONCE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MAKES A BRIEF
APPEARANCE. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES SUGGESTS
A MORE MILDER PATTERN THAN RECENT DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC. WHILE A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IS EXPECTED MID
TO LATE WEEK...IT MAY BE HAMPERED BY SHOWERS ON LATE THURSDAY AND
INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A PESKY DISTURBANCE COMES OUT OF THE S STREAM
BEFORE HEIGHTS CAN BUILD. THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL BE FRIDAY EVENING. A
THE WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE SEASONAL AND MAINLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SEEING SOME GUSTS ACROSS THE NORTH DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING WITH
THE ONSET OF SHOWERS AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS. OTHERWISE...ONLY
EXPECTING BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS TONIGHT AND MVFR
CEILINGS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS AS QUICK LOW LEVEL DRYING
IS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z. BEYOND...WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST
SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DURING MIXING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RESTRICTIONS IN CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION COULD
BE LOWER THAN EXPECTED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  MON 03/30/15
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    M

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JB/ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...RPY/26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...26








000
FXUS61 KRLX 300531
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
131 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL COLD FRONTS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE UP COMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
BASED ON THE LATEST MODELS...WILL INCREASE SKY COVER AROUND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
AS THEY MOVE THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. ANY PRECIP THAT DOES ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT WILL LIGHT AND
FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ONLY MADE
SMALL CHANGES IN THIS PERIOD AS CURRENT FORECAST STILL ON TRACK.

ONCE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MAKES A BRIEF
APPEARANCE. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES SUGGESTS
A MORE MILDER PATTERN THAN RECENT DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC. WHILE A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IS EXPECTED MID
TO LATE WEEK...IT MAY BE HAMPERED BY SHOWERS ON LATE THURSDAY AND
INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A PESKY DISTURBANCE COMES OUT OF THE S STREAM
BEFORE HEIGHTS CAN BUILD. THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL BE FRIDAY EVENING. A
THE WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE SEASONAL AND MAINLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SEEING SOME GUSTS ACROSS THE NORTH DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING WITH
THE ONSET OF SHOWERS AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS. OTHERWISE...ONLY
EXPECTING BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS TONIGHT AND MVFR
CEILINGS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS AS QUICK LOW LEVEL DRYING
IS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z. BEYOND...WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST
SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DURING MIXING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RESTRICTIONS IN CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION COULD
BE LOWER THAN EXPECTED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  MON 03/30/15
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    M

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JB/ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...RPY/26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS61 KRLX 300531
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
131 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL COLD FRONTS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE UP COMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
BASED ON THE LATEST MODELS...WILL INCREASE SKY COVER AROUND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
AS THEY MOVE THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. ANY PRECIP THAT DOES ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT WILL LIGHT AND
FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ONLY MADE
SMALL CHANGES IN THIS PERIOD AS CURRENT FORECAST STILL ON TRACK.

ONCE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MAKES A BRIEF
APPEARANCE. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES SUGGESTS
A MORE MILDER PATTERN THAN RECENT DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC. WHILE A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IS EXPECTED MID
TO LATE WEEK...IT MAY BE HAMPERED BY SHOWERS ON LATE THURSDAY AND
INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A PESKY DISTURBANCE COMES OUT OF THE S STREAM
BEFORE HEIGHTS CAN BUILD. THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL BE FRIDAY EVENING. A
THE WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE SEASONAL AND MAINLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SEEING SOME GUSTS ACROSS THE NORTH DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING WITH
THE ONSET OF SHOWERS AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS. OTHERWISE...ONLY
EXPECTING BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS TONIGHT AND MVFR
CEILINGS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS AS QUICK LOW LEVEL DRYING
IS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z. BEYOND...WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST
SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DURING MIXING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RESTRICTIONS IN CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION COULD
BE LOWER THAN EXPECTED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  MON 03/30/15
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    M

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JB/ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...RPY/26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS61 KRLX 300531
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
131 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL COLD FRONTS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE UP COMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
BASED ON THE LATEST MODELS...WILL INCREASE SKY COVER AROUND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
AS THEY MOVE THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. ANY PRECIP THAT DOES ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT WILL LIGHT AND
FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ONLY MADE
SMALL CHANGES IN THIS PERIOD AS CURRENT FORECAST STILL ON TRACK.

ONCE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MAKES A BRIEF
APPEARANCE. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES SUGGESTS
A MORE MILDER PATTERN THAN RECENT DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC. WHILE A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IS EXPECTED MID
TO LATE WEEK...IT MAY BE HAMPERED BY SHOWERS ON LATE THURSDAY AND
INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A PESKY DISTURBANCE COMES OUT OF THE S STREAM
BEFORE HEIGHTS CAN BUILD. THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL BE FRIDAY EVENING. A
THE WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE SEASONAL AND MAINLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SEEING SOME GUSTS ACROSS THE NORTH DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING WITH
THE ONSET OF SHOWERS AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS. OTHERWISE...ONLY
EXPECTING BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS TONIGHT AND MVFR
CEILINGS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS AS QUICK LOW LEVEL DRYING
IS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z. BEYOND...WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST
SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DURING MIXING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RESTRICTIONS IN CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION COULD
BE LOWER THAN EXPECTED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  MON 03/30/15
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    M

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JB/ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...RPY/26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...26








000
FXUS61 KRLX 292302
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
649 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL COLD FRONTS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE UP COMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
BASED ON THE LATEST MODELS...WILL INCREASE SKY COVER AROUND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
AS THEY MOVE THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. ANY PRECIP THAT DOES ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT WILL LIGHT AND
FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ONLY MADE
SMALL CHANGES IN THIS PERIOD AS CURRENT FORECAST STILL ON TRACK.

ONCE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MAKES A BRIEF
APPEARANCE. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES SUGGESTS
A MORE MILDER PATTERN THAN RECENT DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC. WHILE A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IS EXPECTED MID
TO LATE WEEK...IT MAY BE HAMPERED BY SHOWERS ON LATE THURSDAY AND
INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A PESKY DISTURBANCE COMES OUT OF THE S STREAM
BEFORE HEIGHTS CAN BUILD. THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL BE FRIDAY EVENING. A
THE WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE SEASONAL AND MAINLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...PROVIDING SOME
SHOWERS. SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN SHOWERS
AND CLOUDS. IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...SOME SNOW OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE...WITH LOWER RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN THE
WINTRY WEATHER. CLOUDS WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE ON MONDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH THIS EVENING...THEN MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RESTRICTIONS IN CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION COULD
BE LOWER THAN EXPECTED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JB/ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...RPY










000
FXUS61 KRLX 292302
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
649 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL COLD FRONTS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE UP COMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
BASED ON THE LATEST MODELS...WILL INCREASE SKY COVER AROUND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
AS THEY MOVE THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. ANY PRECIP THAT DOES ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT WILL LIGHT AND
FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ONLY MADE
SMALL CHANGES IN THIS PERIOD AS CURRENT FORECAST STILL ON TRACK.

ONCE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MAKES A BRIEF
APPEARANCE. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES SUGGESTS
A MORE MILDER PATTERN THAN RECENT DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC. WHILE A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IS EXPECTED MID
TO LATE WEEK...IT MAY BE HAMPERED BY SHOWERS ON LATE THURSDAY AND
INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A PESKY DISTURBANCE COMES OUT OF THE S STREAM
BEFORE HEIGHTS CAN BUILD. THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL BE FRIDAY EVENING. A
THE WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE SEASONAL AND MAINLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...PROVIDING SOME
SHOWERS. SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN SHOWERS
AND CLOUDS. IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...SOME SNOW OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE...WITH LOWER RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN THE
WINTRY WEATHER. CLOUDS WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE ON MONDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH THIS EVENING...THEN MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RESTRICTIONS IN CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION COULD
BE LOWER THAN EXPECTED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JB/ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...RPY










000
FXUS61 KRLX 292302
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
649 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL COLD FRONTS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE UP COMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
BASED ON THE LATEST MODELS...WILL INCREASE SKY COVER AROUND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
AS THEY MOVE THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. ANY PRECIP THAT DOES ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT WILL LIGHT AND
FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ONLY MADE
SMALL CHANGES IN THIS PERIOD AS CURRENT FORECAST STILL ON TRACK.

ONCE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MAKES A BRIEF
APPEARANCE. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES SUGGESTS
A MORE MILDER PATTERN THAN RECENT DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC. WHILE A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IS EXPECTED MID
TO LATE WEEK...IT MAY BE HAMPERED BY SHOWERS ON LATE THURSDAY AND
INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A PESKY DISTURBANCE COMES OUT OF THE S STREAM
BEFORE HEIGHTS CAN BUILD. THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL BE FRIDAY EVENING. A
THE WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE SEASONAL AND MAINLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...PROVIDING SOME
SHOWERS. SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN SHOWERS
AND CLOUDS. IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...SOME SNOW OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE...WITH LOWER RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN THE
WINTRY WEATHER. CLOUDS WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE ON MONDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH THIS EVENING...THEN MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RESTRICTIONS IN CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION COULD
BE LOWER THAN EXPECTED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JB/ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...RPY











000
FXUS61 KRLX 292235
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
618 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL COLD FRONTS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE UP COMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
BASED ON THE LATEST MODELS...WILL INCREASE SKY COVER AROUND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
AS THEY MOVE THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. ANY PRECIP THAT DOES ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT WILL LIGHT AND
FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ONLY MADE
SMALL CHANGES IN THIS PERIOD AS CURRENT FORECAST STILL ON TRACK.

ONCE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MAKES A BRIEF
APPEARANCE. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES SUGGESTS
A MORE MILDER PATTERN THAN RECENT DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC. WHILE A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IS EXPECTED MID
TO LATE WEEK...IT MAY BE HAMPERED BY SHOWERS ON LATE THURSDAY AND
INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A PESKY DISTURBANCE COMES OUT OF THE S STREAM
BEFORE HEIGHTS CAN BUILD. THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL BE FRIDAY EVENING. A
THE WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE SEASONAL AND MAINLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS A HIGH PRESSURE EXITS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT TO INCREASE CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT. THE BULK OF THE PCPN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WILL BE BELOW
FREEZING...SO EXPECT PCPN TO TRANSITION INTO SNOW OR A MIX PCPN
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

THEREFORE...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE INITIAL SHOWERS
REACHING SOUTHEAST OH...PKB AND HTS AROUND 03-05Z. THEN...SHOWERS
AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL SPREAD EAST TO
AFFECT THE REST OF SITES. IFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN INCLUDING BKW AFTER 08Z. SHOWER RELATED IFR CONDITIONS CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT IF SHOWERS BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR SHORT
PERIODS OF TIMES.

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GENTLE TO MODERATE TONIGHT AHEAD
AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT. MODELS SUGGEST H850 WINDS OF 50 TO 60
KNOTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND A PORTION OF THESE WINDS CAN BE
MIXED DOWN BY ANY SHOWER.

COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY 13-14Z
MONDAY MORNING...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS SPREADING FROM WEST TO
EAST BY MID MORNING TO NOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP LATER TONIGHT MAY
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JB/ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ











000
FXUS61 KRLX 292235
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
618 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL COLD FRONTS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE UP COMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
BASED ON THE LATEST MODELS...WILL INCREASE SKY COVER AROUND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
AS THEY MOVE THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. ANY PRECIP THAT DOES ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT WILL LIGHT AND
FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ONLY MADE
SMALL CHANGES IN THIS PERIOD AS CURRENT FORECAST STILL ON TRACK.

ONCE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MAKES A BRIEF
APPEARANCE. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES SUGGESTS
A MORE MILDER PATTERN THAN RECENT DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC. WHILE A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IS EXPECTED MID
TO LATE WEEK...IT MAY BE HAMPERED BY SHOWERS ON LATE THURSDAY AND
INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A PESKY DISTURBANCE COMES OUT OF THE S STREAM
BEFORE HEIGHTS CAN BUILD. THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL BE FRIDAY EVENING. A
THE WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE SEASONAL AND MAINLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS A HIGH PRESSURE EXITS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT TO INCREASE CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT. THE BULK OF THE PCPN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WILL BE BELOW
FREEZING...SO EXPECT PCPN TO TRANSITION INTO SNOW OR A MIX PCPN
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

THEREFORE...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE INITIAL SHOWERS
REACHING SOUTHEAST OH...PKB AND HTS AROUND 03-05Z. THEN...SHOWERS
AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL SPREAD EAST TO
AFFECT THE REST OF SITES. IFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN INCLUDING BKW AFTER 08Z. SHOWER RELATED IFR CONDITIONS CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT IF SHOWERS BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR SHORT
PERIODS OF TIMES.

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GENTLE TO MODERATE TONIGHT AHEAD
AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT. MODELS SUGGEST H850 WINDS OF 50 TO 60
KNOTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND A PORTION OF THESE WINDS CAN BE
MIXED DOWN BY ANY SHOWER.

COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY 13-14Z
MONDAY MORNING...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS SPREADING FROM WEST TO
EAST BY MID MORNING TO NOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP LATER TONIGHT MAY
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JB/ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ










000
FXUS61 KRLX 292235
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
618 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL COLD FRONTS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE UP COMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
BASED ON THE LATEST MODELS...WILL INCREASE SKY COVER AROUND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
AS THEY MOVE THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. ANY PRECIP THAT DOES ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT WILL LIGHT AND
FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ONLY MADE
SMALL CHANGES IN THIS PERIOD AS CURRENT FORECAST STILL ON TRACK.

ONCE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MAKES A BRIEF
APPEARANCE. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES SUGGESTS
A MORE MILDER PATTERN THAN RECENT DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC. WHILE A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IS EXPECTED MID
TO LATE WEEK...IT MAY BE HAMPERED BY SHOWERS ON LATE THURSDAY AND
INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A PESKY DISTURBANCE COMES OUT OF THE S STREAM
BEFORE HEIGHTS CAN BUILD. THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL BE FRIDAY EVENING. A
THE WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE SEASONAL AND MAINLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS A HIGH PRESSURE EXITS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT TO INCREASE CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT. THE BULK OF THE PCPN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WILL BE BELOW
FREEZING...SO EXPECT PCPN TO TRANSITION INTO SNOW OR A MIX PCPN
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

THEREFORE...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE INITIAL SHOWERS
REACHING SOUTHEAST OH...PKB AND HTS AROUND 03-05Z. THEN...SHOWERS
AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL SPREAD EAST TO
AFFECT THE REST OF SITES. IFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN INCLUDING BKW AFTER 08Z. SHOWER RELATED IFR CONDITIONS CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT IF SHOWERS BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR SHORT
PERIODS OF TIMES.

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GENTLE TO MODERATE TONIGHT AHEAD
AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT. MODELS SUGGEST H850 WINDS OF 50 TO 60
KNOTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND A PORTION OF THESE WINDS CAN BE
MIXED DOWN BY ANY SHOWER.

COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY 13-14Z
MONDAY MORNING...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS SPREADING FROM WEST TO
EAST BY MID MORNING TO NOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP LATER TONIGHT MAY
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JB/ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ











000
FXUS61 KRLX 292235
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
618 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL COLD FRONTS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE UP COMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
BASED ON THE LATEST MODELS...WILL INCREASE SKY COVER AROUND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
AS THEY MOVE THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. ANY PRECIP THAT DOES ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT WILL LIGHT AND
FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ONLY MADE
SMALL CHANGES IN THIS PERIOD AS CURRENT FORECAST STILL ON TRACK.

ONCE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MAKES A BRIEF
APPEARANCE. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES SUGGESTS
A MORE MILDER PATTERN THAN RECENT DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC. WHILE A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IS EXPECTED MID
TO LATE WEEK...IT MAY BE HAMPERED BY SHOWERS ON LATE THURSDAY AND
INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A PESKY DISTURBANCE COMES OUT OF THE S STREAM
BEFORE HEIGHTS CAN BUILD. THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL BE FRIDAY EVENING. A
THE WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE SEASONAL AND MAINLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS A HIGH PRESSURE EXITS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT TO INCREASE CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT. THE BULK OF THE PCPN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WILL BE BELOW
FREEZING...SO EXPECT PCPN TO TRANSITION INTO SNOW OR A MIX PCPN
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

THEREFORE...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE INITIAL SHOWERS
REACHING SOUTHEAST OH...PKB AND HTS AROUND 03-05Z. THEN...SHOWERS
AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL SPREAD EAST TO
AFFECT THE REST OF SITES. IFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN INCLUDING BKW AFTER 08Z. SHOWER RELATED IFR CONDITIONS CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT IF SHOWERS BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR SHORT
PERIODS OF TIMES.

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GENTLE TO MODERATE TONIGHT AHEAD
AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT. MODELS SUGGEST H850 WINDS OF 50 TO 60
KNOTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND A PORTION OF THESE WINDS CAN BE
MIXED DOWN BY ANY SHOWER.

COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY 13-14Z
MONDAY MORNING...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS SPREADING FROM WEST TO
EAST BY MID MORNING TO NOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP LATER TONIGHT MAY
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JB/ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ










000
FXUS61 KRLX 291912
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
225 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS EAST...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO SPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL COLD FRONTS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE UP COMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND H850 SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGS WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN INCOMING WARM/COLD FRONT
COMBO ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. H500 CHARTS INDICATE THAT
MOST OF THE ENERGY FROM THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES NORTH ACROSS PA.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS INCREASING OVER SOUTHEAST OH BY 03Z...SPREADING EAST
ACROSS WV OVERNIGHT. BY 12Z THE BULK OF PCPN SHOULD BE ALONG THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS EAST. PERIODS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH NO FLOODING ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL PER SREF
PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE RAIN EXCEEDING 80 PERCENT...AND GOOD
TIMING CONSENSUS IN QPF FIELDS FROM OTHER MODELS. AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP.
OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS ALONG SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE NAM
MODEL SUPPORTS THIS REASONING SHOWING 50 TO 60 KNOTS AT H850.
BELIEVE ANY SHOWER COULD MIX DOWN A FRACTION OF THESE WINDS ALONG
THEIR PATH.

MODELS SUGGEST H850 FREEZING LEVEL LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE CWA...SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM MUCH UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW. COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...CAPABLE TO CHANGE RAIN SHOWERS TO LIGHT SNOW OR MIX OVER THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS LATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
AS THEY MOVE THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. ANY PRECIP THAT DOES ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT WILL LIGHT AND
FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ONLY MADE
SMALL CHANGES IN THIS PERIOD AS CURRENT FORECAST STILL ON TRACK.

ONCE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MAKES A BRIEF
APPEARANCE. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES SUGGESTS
A MORE MILDER PATTERN THAN RECENT DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC. WHILE A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IS EXPECTED MID
TO LATE WEEK...IT MAY BE HAMPERED BY SHOWERS ON LATE THURSDAY AND
INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A PESKY DISTURBANCE COMES OUT OF THE S STREAM
BEFORE HEIGHTS CAN BUILD. THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL BE FRIDAY EVENING. A
THE WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE SEASONAL AND MAINLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS A HIGH PRESSURE EXITS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT TO INCREASE CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT. THE BULK OF THE PCPN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WILL BE BELOW
FREEZING...SO EXPECT PCPN TO TRANSITION INTO SNOW OR A MIX PCPN
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

THEREFORE...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE INITIAL SHOWERS
REACHING SOUTHEAST OH...PKB AND HTS AROUND 03-05Z. THEN...SHOWERS
AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL SPREAD EAST TO
AFFECT THE REST OF SITES. IFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN INCLUDING BKW AFTER 08Z. SHOWER RELATED IFR CONDITIONS CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT IF SHOWERS BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR SHORT
PERIODS OF TIMES.

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GENTLE TO MODERATE TONIGHT AHEAD
AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT. MODELS SUGGEST H850 WINDS OF 50 TO 60
KNOTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND A PORTION OF THESE WINDS CAN BE
MIXED DOWN BY ANY SHOWER.

COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY 13-14Z
MONDAY MORNING...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS SPREADING FROM WEST TO
EAST BY MID MORNING TO NOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP LATER TONIGHT MAY
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JB/ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JB
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 291912
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
225 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS EAST...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO SPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL COLD FRONTS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE UP COMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND H850 SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGS WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN INCOMING WARM/COLD FRONT
COMBO ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. H500 CHARTS INDICATE THAT
MOST OF THE ENERGY FROM THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES NORTH ACROSS PA.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS INCREASING OVER SOUTHEAST OH BY 03Z...SPREADING EAST
ACROSS WV OVERNIGHT. BY 12Z THE BULK OF PCPN SHOULD BE ALONG THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS EAST. PERIODS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH NO FLOODING ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL PER SREF
PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE RAIN EXCEEDING 80 PERCENT...AND GOOD
TIMING CONSENSUS IN QPF FIELDS FROM OTHER MODELS. AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP.
OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS ALONG SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE NAM
MODEL SUPPORTS THIS REASONING SHOWING 50 TO 60 KNOTS AT H850.
BELIEVE ANY SHOWER COULD MIX DOWN A FRACTION OF THESE WINDS ALONG
THEIR PATH.

MODELS SUGGEST H850 FREEZING LEVEL LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE CWA...SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM MUCH UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW. COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...CAPABLE TO CHANGE RAIN SHOWERS TO LIGHT SNOW OR MIX OVER THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS LATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
AS THEY MOVE THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. ANY PRECIP THAT DOES ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT WILL LIGHT AND
FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ONLY MADE
SMALL CHANGES IN THIS PERIOD AS CURRENT FORECAST STILL ON TRACK.

ONCE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MAKES A BRIEF
APPEARANCE. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES SUGGESTS
A MORE MILDER PATTERN THAN RECENT DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC. WHILE A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IS EXPECTED MID
TO LATE WEEK...IT MAY BE HAMPERED BY SHOWERS ON LATE THURSDAY AND
INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A PESKY DISTURBANCE COMES OUT OF THE S STREAM
BEFORE HEIGHTS CAN BUILD. THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL BE FRIDAY EVENING. A
THE WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE SEASONAL AND MAINLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS A HIGH PRESSURE EXITS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT TO INCREASE CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT. THE BULK OF THE PCPN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WILL BE BELOW
FREEZING...SO EXPECT PCPN TO TRANSITION INTO SNOW OR A MIX PCPN
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

THEREFORE...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE INITIAL SHOWERS
REACHING SOUTHEAST OH...PKB AND HTS AROUND 03-05Z. THEN...SHOWERS
AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL SPREAD EAST TO
AFFECT THE REST OF SITES. IFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN INCLUDING BKW AFTER 08Z. SHOWER RELATED IFR CONDITIONS CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT IF SHOWERS BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR SHORT
PERIODS OF TIMES.

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GENTLE TO MODERATE TONIGHT AHEAD
AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT. MODELS SUGGEST H850 WINDS OF 50 TO 60
KNOTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND A PORTION OF THESE WINDS CAN BE
MIXED DOWN BY ANY SHOWER.

COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY 13-14Z
MONDAY MORNING...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS SPREADING FROM WEST TO
EAST BY MID MORNING TO NOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP LATER TONIGHT MAY
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JB/ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JB
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ








000
FXUS61 KRLX 291912
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
225 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS EAST...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO SPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL COLD FRONTS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE UP COMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND H850 SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGS WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN INCOMING WARM/COLD FRONT
COMBO ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. H500 CHARTS INDICATE THAT
MOST OF THE ENERGY FROM THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES NORTH ACROSS PA.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS INCREASING OVER SOUTHEAST OH BY 03Z...SPREADING EAST
ACROSS WV OVERNIGHT. BY 12Z THE BULK OF PCPN SHOULD BE ALONG THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS EAST. PERIODS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH NO FLOODING ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL PER SREF
PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE RAIN EXCEEDING 80 PERCENT...AND GOOD
TIMING CONSENSUS IN QPF FIELDS FROM OTHER MODELS. AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP.
OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS ALONG SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE NAM
MODEL SUPPORTS THIS REASONING SHOWING 50 TO 60 KNOTS AT H850.
BELIEVE ANY SHOWER COULD MIX DOWN A FRACTION OF THESE WINDS ALONG
THEIR PATH.

MODELS SUGGEST H850 FREEZING LEVEL LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE CWA...SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM MUCH UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW. COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...CAPABLE TO CHANGE RAIN SHOWERS TO LIGHT SNOW OR MIX OVER THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS LATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
AS THEY MOVE THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. ANY PRECIP THAT DOES ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT WILL LIGHT AND
FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ONLY MADE
SMALL CHANGES IN THIS PERIOD AS CURRENT FORECAST STILL ON TRACK.

ONCE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MAKES A BRIEF
APPEARANCE. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES SUGGESTS
A MORE MILDER PATTERN THAN RECENT DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC. WHILE A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IS EXPECTED MID
TO LATE WEEK...IT MAY BE HAMPERED BY SHOWERS ON LATE THURSDAY AND
INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A PESKY DISTURBANCE COMES OUT OF THE S STREAM
BEFORE HEIGHTS CAN BUILD. THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL BE FRIDAY EVENING. A
THE WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE SEASONAL AND MAINLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS A HIGH PRESSURE EXITS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT TO INCREASE CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT. THE BULK OF THE PCPN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WILL BE BELOW
FREEZING...SO EXPECT PCPN TO TRANSITION INTO SNOW OR A MIX PCPN
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

THEREFORE...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE INITIAL SHOWERS
REACHING SOUTHEAST OH...PKB AND HTS AROUND 03-05Z. THEN...SHOWERS
AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL SPREAD EAST TO
AFFECT THE REST OF SITES. IFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN INCLUDING BKW AFTER 08Z. SHOWER RELATED IFR CONDITIONS CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT IF SHOWERS BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR SHORT
PERIODS OF TIMES.

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GENTLE TO MODERATE TONIGHT AHEAD
AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT. MODELS SUGGEST H850 WINDS OF 50 TO 60
KNOTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND A PORTION OF THESE WINDS CAN BE
MIXED DOWN BY ANY SHOWER.

COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY 13-14Z
MONDAY MORNING...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS SPREADING FROM WEST TO
EAST BY MID MORNING TO NOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP LATER TONIGHT MAY
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JB/ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JB
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ








000
FXUS61 KRLX 291912
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
225 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS EAST...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO SPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL COLD FRONTS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE UP COMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND H850 SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGS WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN INCOMING WARM/COLD FRONT
COMBO ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. H500 CHARTS INDICATE THAT
MOST OF THE ENERGY FROM THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES NORTH ACROSS PA.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS INCREASING OVER SOUTHEAST OH BY 03Z...SPREADING EAST
ACROSS WV OVERNIGHT. BY 12Z THE BULK OF PCPN SHOULD BE ALONG THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS EAST. PERIODS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH NO FLOODING ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL PER SREF
PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE RAIN EXCEEDING 80 PERCENT...AND GOOD
TIMING CONSENSUS IN QPF FIELDS FROM OTHER MODELS. AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP.
OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS ALONG SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE NAM
MODEL SUPPORTS THIS REASONING SHOWING 50 TO 60 KNOTS AT H850.
BELIEVE ANY SHOWER COULD MIX DOWN A FRACTION OF THESE WINDS ALONG
THEIR PATH.

MODELS SUGGEST H850 FREEZING LEVEL LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE CWA...SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM MUCH UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW. COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...CAPABLE TO CHANGE RAIN SHOWERS TO LIGHT SNOW OR MIX OVER THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS LATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
AS THEY MOVE THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. ANY PRECIP THAT DOES ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT WILL LIGHT AND
FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ONLY MADE
SMALL CHANGES IN THIS PERIOD AS CURRENT FORECAST STILL ON TRACK.

ONCE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MAKES A BRIEF
APPEARANCE. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES SUGGESTS
A MORE MILDER PATTERN THAN RECENT DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC. WHILE A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IS EXPECTED MID
TO LATE WEEK...IT MAY BE HAMPERED BY SHOWERS ON LATE THURSDAY AND
INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A PESKY DISTURBANCE COMES OUT OF THE S STREAM
BEFORE HEIGHTS CAN BUILD. THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL BE FRIDAY EVENING. A
THE WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE SEASONAL AND MAINLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS A HIGH PRESSURE EXITS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT TO INCREASE CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT. THE BULK OF THE PCPN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WILL BE BELOW
FREEZING...SO EXPECT PCPN TO TRANSITION INTO SNOW OR A MIX PCPN
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

THEREFORE...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE INITIAL SHOWERS
REACHING SOUTHEAST OH...PKB AND HTS AROUND 03-05Z. THEN...SHOWERS
AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL SPREAD EAST TO
AFFECT THE REST OF SITES. IFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN INCLUDING BKW AFTER 08Z. SHOWER RELATED IFR CONDITIONS CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT IF SHOWERS BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR SHORT
PERIODS OF TIMES.

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GENTLE TO MODERATE TONIGHT AHEAD
AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT. MODELS SUGGEST H850 WINDS OF 50 TO 60
KNOTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND A PORTION OF THESE WINDS CAN BE
MIXED DOWN BY ANY SHOWER.

COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY 13-14Z
MONDAY MORNING...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS SPREADING FROM WEST TO
EAST BY MID MORNING TO NOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP LATER TONIGHT MAY
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JB/ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JB
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 291822
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
225 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS EAST...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO SPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL COLD FRONTS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE UP COMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND H850 SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGS WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN INCOMING WARM/COLD FRONT
COMBO ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. H500 CHARTS INDICATE THAT
MOST OF THE ENERGY FROM THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES NORTH ACROSS PA.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS INCREASING OVER SOUTHEAST OH BY 03Z...SPREADING EAST
ACROSS WV OVERNIGHT. BY 12Z THE BULK OF PCPN SHOULD BE ALONG THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS EAST. PERIODS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH NO FLOODING ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL PER SREF
PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE RAIN EXCEEDING 80 PERCENT...AND GOOD
TIMING CONSENSUS IN QPF FIELDS FROM OTHER MODELS. AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP.
OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS ALONG SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE NAM
MODEL SUPPORTS THIS REASONING SHOWING 50 TO 60 KNOTS AT H850.
BELIEVE ANY SHOWER COULD MIX DOWN A FRACTION OF THESE WINDS ALONG
THEIR PATH.

MODELS SUGGEST H850 FREEZING LEVEL LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE CWA...SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM MUCH UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW. COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...CAPABLE TO CHANGE RAIN SHOWERS TO LIGHT SNOW OR MIX OVER THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS LATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
AS THEY MOVE THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. ANY PRECIP THAT DOES ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT WILL LIGHT AND
FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ONLY MADE
SMALL CHANGES IN THIS PERIOD AS CURRENT FORECAST STILL ON TRACK.

ONCE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MAKES A BRIEF
APPEARANCE. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES SUGGESTS
A MORE MILDER PATTERN THAN RECENT DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC WHICH GIVES A NOD TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
SOLUTION FOR LATE WEEK AND INTO EASTER WEEKEND. WHILE A SIGNIFICANT
WARMUP IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK...IT MAY BE HAMPERED BY SHOWERS
ON LATE THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A PESKY DISTURBANCE COMES
OUT OF THE S STREAM BEFORE HEIGHTS CAN BUILD. THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL
BE FRIDAY EVENING. A DEEPENING LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AS A S/W TROF GOES NEGATIVE TILT. THE RESULTING STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND LLJ MAY PRODUCE A HEALTHY LINE OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WITH IT AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING
DAYS. THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEEKEND
IS SHAPING UP TO BE RATHER COOL...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WITH EVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS A HIGH PRESSURE EXITS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT TO INCREASE CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT. THE BULK OF THE PCPN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WILL BE BELOW
FREEZING...SO EXPECT PCPN TO TRANSITION INTO SNOW OR A MIX PCPN
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

THEREFORE...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE INITIAL SHOWERS
REACHING SOUTHEAST OH...PKB AND HTS AROUND 03-05Z. THEN...SHOWERS
AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL SPREAD EAST TO
AFFECT THE REST OF SITES. IFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN INCLUDING BKW AFTER 08Z. SHOWER RELATED IFR CONDITIONS CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT IF SHOWERS BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR SHORT
PERIODS OF TIMES.

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GENTLE TO MODERATE TONIGHT AHEAD
AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT. MODELS SUGGEST H850 WINDS OF 50 TO 60
KNOTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND A PORTION OF THESE WINDS CAN BE
MIXED DOWN BY ANY SHOWER.

COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY 13-14Z
MONDAY MORNING...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS SPREADING FROM WEST TO
EAST BY MID MORNING TO NOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP LATER TONIGHT MAY
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JB/ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JB
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ





000
FXUS61 KRLX 291822
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
225 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS EAST...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO SPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL COLD FRONTS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE UP COMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND H850 SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGS WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN INCOMING WARM/COLD FRONT
COMBO ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. H500 CHARTS INDICATE THAT
MOST OF THE ENERGY FROM THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES NORTH ACROSS PA.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS INCREASING OVER SOUTHEAST OH BY 03Z...SPREADING EAST
ACROSS WV OVERNIGHT. BY 12Z THE BULK OF PCPN SHOULD BE ALONG THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS EAST. PERIODS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH NO FLOODING ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL PER SREF
PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE RAIN EXCEEDING 80 PERCENT...AND GOOD
TIMING CONSENSUS IN QPF FIELDS FROM OTHER MODELS. AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP.
OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS ALONG SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE NAM
MODEL SUPPORTS THIS REASONING SHOWING 50 TO 60 KNOTS AT H850.
BELIEVE ANY SHOWER COULD MIX DOWN A FRACTION OF THESE WINDS ALONG
THEIR PATH.

MODELS SUGGEST H850 FREEZING LEVEL LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE CWA...SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM MUCH UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW. COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...CAPABLE TO CHANGE RAIN SHOWERS TO LIGHT SNOW OR MIX OVER THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS LATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
AS THEY MOVE THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. ANY PRECIP THAT DOES ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT WILL LIGHT AND
FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ONLY MADE
SMALL CHANGES IN THIS PERIOD AS CURRENT FORECAST STILL ON TRACK.

ONCE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MAKES A BRIEF
APPEARANCE. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES SUGGESTS
A MORE MILDER PATTERN THAN RECENT DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC WHICH GIVES A NOD TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
SOLUTION FOR LATE WEEK AND INTO EASTER WEEKEND. WHILE A SIGNIFICANT
WARMUP IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK...IT MAY BE HAMPERED BY SHOWERS
ON LATE THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A PESKY DISTURBANCE COMES
OUT OF THE S STREAM BEFORE HEIGHTS CAN BUILD. THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL
BE FRIDAY EVENING. A DEEPENING LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AS A S/W TROF GOES NEGATIVE TILT. THE RESULTING STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND LLJ MAY PRODUCE A HEALTHY LINE OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WITH IT AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING
DAYS. THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEEKEND
IS SHAPING UP TO BE RATHER COOL...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WITH EVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS A HIGH PRESSURE EXITS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT TO INCREASE CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT. THE BULK OF THE PCPN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WILL BE BELOW
FREEZING...SO EXPECT PCPN TO TRANSITION INTO SNOW OR A MIX PCPN
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

THEREFORE...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE INITIAL SHOWERS
REACHING SOUTHEAST OH...PKB AND HTS AROUND 03-05Z. THEN...SHOWERS
AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL SPREAD EAST TO
AFFECT THE REST OF SITES. IFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN INCLUDING BKW AFTER 08Z. SHOWER RELATED IFR CONDITIONS CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT IF SHOWERS BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR SHORT
PERIODS OF TIMES.

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GENTLE TO MODERATE TONIGHT AHEAD
AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT. MODELS SUGGEST H850 WINDS OF 50 TO 60
KNOTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND A PORTION OF THESE WINDS CAN BE
MIXED DOWN BY ANY SHOWER.

COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY 13-14Z
MONDAY MORNING...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS SPREADING FROM WEST TO
EAST BY MID MORNING TO NOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP LATER TONIGHT MAY
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JB/ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JB
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ






000
FXUS61 KRLX 291822
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
225 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS EAST...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO SPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL COLD FRONTS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE UP COMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND H850 SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGS WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN INCOMING WARM/COLD FRONT
COMBO ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. H500 CHARTS INDICATE THAT
MOST OF THE ENERGY FROM THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES NORTH ACROSS PA.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS INCREASING OVER SOUTHEAST OH BY 03Z...SPREADING EAST
ACROSS WV OVERNIGHT. BY 12Z THE BULK OF PCPN SHOULD BE ALONG THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS EAST. PERIODS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH NO FLOODING ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL PER SREF
PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE RAIN EXCEEDING 80 PERCENT...AND GOOD
TIMING CONSENSUS IN QPF FIELDS FROM OTHER MODELS. AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP.
OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS ALONG SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE NAM
MODEL SUPPORTS THIS REASONING SHOWING 50 TO 60 KNOTS AT H850.
BELIEVE ANY SHOWER COULD MIX DOWN A FRACTION OF THESE WINDS ALONG
THEIR PATH.

MODELS SUGGEST H850 FREEZING LEVEL LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE CWA...SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM MUCH UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW. COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...CAPABLE TO CHANGE RAIN SHOWERS TO LIGHT SNOW OR MIX OVER THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS LATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
AS THEY MOVE THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. ANY PRECIP THAT DOES ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT WILL LIGHT AND
FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ONLY MADE
SMALL CHANGES IN THIS PERIOD AS CURRENT FORECAST STILL ON TRACK.

ONCE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MAKES A BRIEF
APPEARANCE. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES SUGGESTS
A MORE MILDER PATTERN THAN RECENT DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC WHICH GIVES A NOD TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
SOLUTION FOR LATE WEEK AND INTO EASTER WEEKEND. WHILE A SIGNIFICANT
WARMUP IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK...IT MAY BE HAMPERED BY SHOWERS
ON LATE THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A PESKY DISTURBANCE COMES
OUT OF THE S STREAM BEFORE HEIGHTS CAN BUILD. THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL
BE FRIDAY EVENING. A DEEPENING LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AS A S/W TROF GOES NEGATIVE TILT. THE RESULTING STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND LLJ MAY PRODUCE A HEALTHY LINE OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WITH IT AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING
DAYS. THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEEKEND
IS SHAPING UP TO BE RATHER COOL...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WITH EVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS A HIGH PRESSURE EXITS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT TO INCREASE CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT. THE BULK OF THE PCPN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WILL BE BELOW
FREEZING...SO EXPECT PCPN TO TRANSITION INTO SNOW OR A MIX PCPN
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

THEREFORE...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE INITIAL SHOWERS
REACHING SOUTHEAST OH...PKB AND HTS AROUND 03-05Z. THEN...SHOWERS
AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL SPREAD EAST TO
AFFECT THE REST OF SITES. IFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN INCLUDING BKW AFTER 08Z. SHOWER RELATED IFR CONDITIONS CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT IF SHOWERS BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR SHORT
PERIODS OF TIMES.

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GENTLE TO MODERATE TONIGHT AHEAD
AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT. MODELS SUGGEST H850 WINDS OF 50 TO 60
KNOTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND A PORTION OF THESE WINDS CAN BE
MIXED DOWN BY ANY SHOWER.

COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY 13-14Z
MONDAY MORNING...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS SPREADING FROM WEST TO
EAST BY MID MORNING TO NOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP LATER TONIGHT MAY
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JB/ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JB
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ






000
FXUS61 KRLX 291822
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
225 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS EAST...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO SPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL COLD FRONTS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE UP COMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND H850 SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGS WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN INCOMING WARM/COLD FRONT
COMBO ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. H500 CHARTS INDICATE THAT
MOST OF THE ENERGY FROM THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES NORTH ACROSS PA.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS INCREASING OVER SOUTHEAST OH BY 03Z...SPREADING EAST
ACROSS WV OVERNIGHT. BY 12Z THE BULK OF PCPN SHOULD BE ALONG THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS EAST. PERIODS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH NO FLOODING ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL PER SREF
PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE RAIN EXCEEDING 80 PERCENT...AND GOOD
TIMING CONSENSUS IN QPF FIELDS FROM OTHER MODELS. AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP.
OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS ALONG SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE NAM
MODEL SUPPORTS THIS REASONING SHOWING 50 TO 60 KNOTS AT H850.
BELIEVE ANY SHOWER COULD MIX DOWN A FRACTION OF THESE WINDS ALONG
THEIR PATH.

MODELS SUGGEST H850 FREEZING LEVEL LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE CWA...SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM MUCH UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW. COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...CAPABLE TO CHANGE RAIN SHOWERS TO LIGHT SNOW OR MIX OVER THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS LATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
AS THEY MOVE THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. ANY PRECIP THAT DOES ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT WILL LIGHT AND
FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ONLY MADE
SMALL CHANGES IN THIS PERIOD AS CURRENT FORECAST STILL ON TRACK.

ONCE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MAKES A BRIEF
APPEARANCE. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES SUGGESTS
A MORE MILDER PATTERN THAN RECENT DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC WHICH GIVES A NOD TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
SOLUTION FOR LATE WEEK AND INTO EASTER WEEKEND. WHILE A SIGNIFICANT
WARMUP IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK...IT MAY BE HAMPERED BY SHOWERS
ON LATE THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A PESKY DISTURBANCE COMES
OUT OF THE S STREAM BEFORE HEIGHTS CAN BUILD. THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL
BE FRIDAY EVENING. A DEEPENING LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AS A S/W TROF GOES NEGATIVE TILT. THE RESULTING STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND LLJ MAY PRODUCE A HEALTHY LINE OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WITH IT AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING
DAYS. THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEEKEND
IS SHAPING UP TO BE RATHER COOL...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WITH EVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS A HIGH PRESSURE EXITS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT TO INCREASE CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT. THE BULK OF THE PCPN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WILL BE BELOW
FREEZING...SO EXPECT PCPN TO TRANSITION INTO SNOW OR A MIX PCPN
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

THEREFORE...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE INITIAL SHOWERS
REACHING SOUTHEAST OH...PKB AND HTS AROUND 03-05Z. THEN...SHOWERS
AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL SPREAD EAST TO
AFFECT THE REST OF SITES. IFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN INCLUDING BKW AFTER 08Z. SHOWER RELATED IFR CONDITIONS CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT IF SHOWERS BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR SHORT
PERIODS OF TIMES.

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GENTLE TO MODERATE TONIGHT AHEAD
AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT. MODELS SUGGEST H850 WINDS OF 50 TO 60
KNOTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND A PORTION OF THESE WINDS CAN BE
MIXED DOWN BY ANY SHOWER.

COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY 13-14Z
MONDAY MORNING...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS SPREADING FROM WEST TO
EAST BY MID MORNING TO NOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP LATER TONIGHT MAY
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JB/ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JB
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ






000
FXUS61 KRLX 291822
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
225 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS EAST...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO SPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL COLD FRONTS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE UP COMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND H850 SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGS WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN INCOMING WARM/COLD FRONT
COMBO ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. H500 CHARTS INDICATE THAT
MOST OF THE ENERGY FROM THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES NORTH ACROSS PA.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS INCREASING OVER SOUTHEAST OH BY 03Z...SPREADING EAST
ACROSS WV OVERNIGHT. BY 12Z THE BULK OF PCPN SHOULD BE ALONG THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS EAST. PERIODS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH NO FLOODING ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL PER SREF
PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE RAIN EXCEEDING 80 PERCENT...AND GOOD
TIMING CONSENSUS IN QPF FIELDS FROM OTHER MODELS. AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP.
OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS ALONG SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE NAM
MODEL SUPPORTS THIS REASONING SHOWING 50 TO 60 KNOTS AT H850.
BELIEVE ANY SHOWER COULD MIX DOWN A FRACTION OF THESE WINDS ALONG
THEIR PATH.

MODELS SUGGEST H850 FREEZING LEVEL LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE CWA...SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM MUCH UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW. COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...CAPABLE TO CHANGE RAIN SHOWERS TO LIGHT SNOW OR MIX OVER THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS LATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
AS THEY MOVE THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. ANY PRECIP THAT DOES ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT WILL LIGHT AND
FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ONLY MADE
SMALL CHANGES IN THIS PERIOD AS CURRENT FORECAST STILL ON TRACK.

ONCE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MAKES A BRIEF
APPEARANCE. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES SUGGESTS
A MORE MILDER PATTERN THAN RECENT DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC WHICH GIVES A NOD TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
SOLUTION FOR LATE WEEK AND INTO EASTER WEEKEND. WHILE A SIGNIFICANT
WARMUP IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK...IT MAY BE HAMPERED BY SHOWERS
ON LATE THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A PESKY DISTURBANCE COMES
OUT OF THE S STREAM BEFORE HEIGHTS CAN BUILD. THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL
BE FRIDAY EVENING. A DEEPENING LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AS A S/W TROF GOES NEGATIVE TILT. THE RESULTING STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND LLJ MAY PRODUCE A HEALTHY LINE OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WITH IT AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING
DAYS. THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEEKEND
IS SHAPING UP TO BE RATHER COOL...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WITH EVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS A HIGH PRESSURE EXITS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT TO INCREASE CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT. THE BULK OF THE PCPN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WILL BE BELOW
FREEZING...SO EXPECT PCPN TO TRANSITION INTO SNOW OR A MIX PCPN
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

THEREFORE...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE INITIAL SHOWERS
REACHING SOUTHEAST OH...PKB AND HTS AROUND 03-05Z. THEN...SHOWERS
AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL SPREAD EAST TO
AFFECT THE REST OF SITES. IFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN INCLUDING BKW AFTER 08Z. SHOWER RELATED IFR CONDITIONS CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT IF SHOWERS BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR SHORT
PERIODS OF TIMES.

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GENTLE TO MODERATE TONIGHT AHEAD
AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT. MODELS SUGGEST H850 WINDS OF 50 TO 60
KNOTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND A PORTION OF THESE WINDS CAN BE
MIXED DOWN BY ANY SHOWER.

COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY 13-14Z
MONDAY MORNING...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS SPREADING FROM WEST TO
EAST BY MID MORNING TO NOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP LATER TONIGHT MAY
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JB/ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JB
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ






000
FXUS61 KRLX 291725
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
125 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS EAST...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO SPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL COLD FRONTS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE UP COMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND H850 SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGS WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN INCOMING WARM/COLD FRONT
COMBO ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. H500 CHARTS INDICATE THAT
MOST OF THE ENERGY FROM THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES NORTH ACROSS PA.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS INCREASING OVER SOUTHEAST OH BY 03Z...SPREADING EAST
ACROSS WV OVERNIGHT. BY 12Z THE BULK OF PCPN SHOULD BE ALONG THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS EAST. PERIODS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH NO FLOODING ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL PER SREF
PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE RAIN EXCEEDING 80 PERCENT...AND GOOD
TIMING CONSENSUS IN QPF FIELDS FROM OTHER MODELS. AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP.
OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS ALONG SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE NAM
MODEL SUPPORTS THIS REASONING SHOWING 50 TO 60 KNOTS AT H850.
BELIEVE ANY SHOWER COULD MIX DOWN A FRACTION OF THESE WINDS ALONG
THEIR PATH.

MODELS SUGGEST H850 FREEZING LEVEL LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE CWA...SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM MUCH UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW. COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...CAPABLE TO CHANGE RAIN SHOWERS TO LIGHT SNOW OR MIX OVER THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS LATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
PATTERN CONTINUES TO UNDERGO CHANGE THIS PERIOD FROM A DEEP
EASTERN UPPER TROUGH AND WESTERN UPPER RIDGE...TO A MORE ZONAL
TYPE FLOW ALOFT. ONE LAST CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST
LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT JUST NORTH AND EAST OF OUR
AREA...BRINGING A WEAK FRONT ACROSS TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE MOISTURE
IS AVAILABLE INTO THIS SYSTEM...THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARM
ADVECTION NORTH OF THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL KEEP MOST OF
THE ATTENDING LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE SYSTEM IN THE NORTH. MODELS
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS
WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE REAL PATTERN CHANGE TAKES EFFECT. UP TO THIS
POINT TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO A WARMING TREND...EVEN BEHIND THE
WEAK FRONT...AS AIR BECOMES INCREASINGLY PACIFIC IN NATURE.

BY THURSDAY...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF PACIFIC SYSTEMS ROLLS ACROSS
THE NATION WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TAKING CONTROL. IN THIS
PATTERN...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF THE NATION...WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO OPENING UP WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. WHILE THE EXACT STRENGTH AND
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS QUESTIONABLE...IT WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM...WITH
QUITE WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC WHICH GIVES A NOD TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
SOLUTION FOR LATE WEEK AND INTO EASTER WEEKEND. WHILE A SIGNIFICANT
WARMUP IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK...IT MAY BE HAMPERED BY SHOWERS
ON LATE THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A PESKY DISTURBANCE COMES
OUT OF THE S STREAM BEFORE HEIGHTS CAN BUILD. THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL
BE FRIDAY EVENING. A DEEPENING LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AS A S/W TROF GOES NEGATIVE TILT. THE RESULTING STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND LLJ MAY PRODUCE A HEALTHY LINE OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WITH IT AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING
DAYS. THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEEKEND
IS SHAPING UP TO BE RATHER COOL...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WITH EVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS A HIGH PRESSURE EXITS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT TO INCREASE CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT. THE BULK OF THE PCPN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WILL BE BELOW
FREEZING...SO EXPECT PCPN TO TRANSITION INTO SNOW OR A MIX PCPN
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

THEREFORE...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE INITIAL SHOWERS
REACHING SOUTHEAST OH...PKB AND HTS AROUND 03-05Z. THEN...SHOWERS
AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL SPREAD EAST TO
AFFECT THE REST OF SITES. IFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN INCLUDING BKW AFTER 08Z. SHOWER RELATED IFR CONDITIONS CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT IF SHOWERS BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR SHORT
PERIODS OF TIMES.

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GENTLE TO MODERATE TONIGHT AHEAD
AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT. MODELS SUGGEST H850 WINDS OF 50 TO 60
KNOTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND A PORTION OF THESE WINDS CAN BE
MIXED DOWN BY ANY SHOWER.

COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY 13-14Z
MONDAY MORNING...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS SPREADING FROM WEST TO
EAST BY MID MORNING TO NOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP LATER TONIGHT MAY
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JB/ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 291725
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
125 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS EAST...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO SPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL COLD FRONTS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE UP COMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND H850 SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGS WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN INCOMING WARM/COLD FRONT
COMBO ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. H500 CHARTS INDICATE THAT
MOST OF THE ENERGY FROM THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES NORTH ACROSS PA.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS INCREASING OVER SOUTHEAST OH BY 03Z...SPREADING EAST
ACROSS WV OVERNIGHT. BY 12Z THE BULK OF PCPN SHOULD BE ALONG THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS EAST. PERIODS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH NO FLOODING ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL PER SREF
PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE RAIN EXCEEDING 80 PERCENT...AND GOOD
TIMING CONSENSUS IN QPF FIELDS FROM OTHER MODELS. AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP.
OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS ALONG SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE NAM
MODEL SUPPORTS THIS REASONING SHOWING 50 TO 60 KNOTS AT H850.
BELIEVE ANY SHOWER COULD MIX DOWN A FRACTION OF THESE WINDS ALONG
THEIR PATH.

MODELS SUGGEST H850 FREEZING LEVEL LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE CWA...SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM MUCH UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW. COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...CAPABLE TO CHANGE RAIN SHOWERS TO LIGHT SNOW OR MIX OVER THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS LATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
PATTERN CONTINUES TO UNDERGO CHANGE THIS PERIOD FROM A DEEP
EASTERN UPPER TROUGH AND WESTERN UPPER RIDGE...TO A MORE ZONAL
TYPE FLOW ALOFT. ONE LAST CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST
LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT JUST NORTH AND EAST OF OUR
AREA...BRINGING A WEAK FRONT ACROSS TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE MOISTURE
IS AVAILABLE INTO THIS SYSTEM...THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARM
ADVECTION NORTH OF THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL KEEP MOST OF
THE ATTENDING LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE SYSTEM IN THE NORTH. MODELS
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS
WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE REAL PATTERN CHANGE TAKES EFFECT. UP TO THIS
POINT TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO A WARMING TREND...EVEN BEHIND THE
WEAK FRONT...AS AIR BECOMES INCREASINGLY PACIFIC IN NATURE.

BY THURSDAY...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF PACIFIC SYSTEMS ROLLS ACROSS
THE NATION WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TAKING CONTROL. IN THIS
PATTERN...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF THE NATION...WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO OPENING UP WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. WHILE THE EXACT STRENGTH AND
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS QUESTIONABLE...IT WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM...WITH
QUITE WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC WHICH GIVES A NOD TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
SOLUTION FOR LATE WEEK AND INTO EASTER WEEKEND. WHILE A SIGNIFICANT
WARMUP IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK...IT MAY BE HAMPERED BY SHOWERS
ON LATE THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A PESKY DISTURBANCE COMES
OUT OF THE S STREAM BEFORE HEIGHTS CAN BUILD. THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL
BE FRIDAY EVENING. A DEEPENING LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AS A S/W TROF GOES NEGATIVE TILT. THE RESULTING STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND LLJ MAY PRODUCE A HEALTHY LINE OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WITH IT AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING
DAYS. THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEEKEND
IS SHAPING UP TO BE RATHER COOL...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WITH EVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS A HIGH PRESSURE EXITS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT TO INCREASE CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT. THE BULK OF THE PCPN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WILL BE BELOW
FREEZING...SO EXPECT PCPN TO TRANSITION INTO SNOW OR A MIX PCPN
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

THEREFORE...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE INITIAL SHOWERS
REACHING SOUTHEAST OH...PKB AND HTS AROUND 03-05Z. THEN...SHOWERS
AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL SPREAD EAST TO
AFFECT THE REST OF SITES. IFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN INCLUDING BKW AFTER 08Z. SHOWER RELATED IFR CONDITIONS CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT IF SHOWERS BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR SHORT
PERIODS OF TIMES.

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GENTLE TO MODERATE TONIGHT AHEAD
AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT. MODELS SUGGEST H850 WINDS OF 50 TO 60
KNOTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND A PORTION OF THESE WINDS CAN BE
MIXED DOWN BY ANY SHOWER.

COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY 13-14Z
MONDAY MORNING...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS SPREADING FROM WEST TO
EAST BY MID MORNING TO NOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP LATER TONIGHT MAY
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JB/ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 291725
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
125 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS EAST...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO SPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL COLD FRONTS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE UP COMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND H850 SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGS WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN INCOMING WARM/COLD FRONT
COMBO ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. H500 CHARTS INDICATE THAT
MOST OF THE ENERGY FROM THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES NORTH ACROSS PA.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS INCREASING OVER SOUTHEAST OH BY 03Z...SPREADING EAST
ACROSS WV OVERNIGHT. BY 12Z THE BULK OF PCPN SHOULD BE ALONG THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS EAST. PERIODS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH NO FLOODING ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL PER SREF
PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE RAIN EXCEEDING 80 PERCENT...AND GOOD
TIMING CONSENSUS IN QPF FIELDS FROM OTHER MODELS. AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP.
OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS ALONG SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE NAM
MODEL SUPPORTS THIS REASONING SHOWING 50 TO 60 KNOTS AT H850.
BELIEVE ANY SHOWER COULD MIX DOWN A FRACTION OF THESE WINDS ALONG
THEIR PATH.

MODELS SUGGEST H850 FREEZING LEVEL LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE CWA...SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM MUCH UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW. COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...CAPABLE TO CHANGE RAIN SHOWERS TO LIGHT SNOW OR MIX OVER THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS LATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
PATTERN CONTINUES TO UNDERGO CHANGE THIS PERIOD FROM A DEEP
EASTERN UPPER TROUGH AND WESTERN UPPER RIDGE...TO A MORE ZONAL
TYPE FLOW ALOFT. ONE LAST CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST
LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT JUST NORTH AND EAST OF OUR
AREA...BRINGING A WEAK FRONT ACROSS TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE MOISTURE
IS AVAILABLE INTO THIS SYSTEM...THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARM
ADVECTION NORTH OF THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL KEEP MOST OF
THE ATTENDING LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE SYSTEM IN THE NORTH. MODELS
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS
WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE REAL PATTERN CHANGE TAKES EFFECT. UP TO THIS
POINT TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO A WARMING TREND...EVEN BEHIND THE
WEAK FRONT...AS AIR BECOMES INCREASINGLY PACIFIC IN NATURE.

BY THURSDAY...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF PACIFIC SYSTEMS ROLLS ACROSS
THE NATION WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TAKING CONTROL. IN THIS
PATTERN...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF THE NATION...WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO OPENING UP WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. WHILE THE EXACT STRENGTH AND
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS QUESTIONABLE...IT WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM...WITH
QUITE WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC WHICH GIVES A NOD TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
SOLUTION FOR LATE WEEK AND INTO EASTER WEEKEND. WHILE A SIGNIFICANT
WARMUP IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK...IT MAY BE HAMPERED BY SHOWERS
ON LATE THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A PESKY DISTURBANCE COMES
OUT OF THE S STREAM BEFORE HEIGHTS CAN BUILD. THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL
BE FRIDAY EVENING. A DEEPENING LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AS A S/W TROF GOES NEGATIVE TILT. THE RESULTING STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND LLJ MAY PRODUCE A HEALTHY LINE OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WITH IT AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING
DAYS. THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEEKEND
IS SHAPING UP TO BE RATHER COOL...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WITH EVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS A HIGH PRESSURE EXITS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT TO INCREASE CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT. THE BULK OF THE PCPN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WILL BE BELOW
FREEZING...SO EXPECT PCPN TO TRANSITION INTO SNOW OR A MIX PCPN
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

THEREFORE...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE INITIAL SHOWERS
REACHING SOUTHEAST OH...PKB AND HTS AROUND 03-05Z. THEN...SHOWERS
AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL SPREAD EAST TO
AFFECT THE REST OF SITES. IFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN INCLUDING BKW AFTER 08Z. SHOWER RELATED IFR CONDITIONS CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT IF SHOWERS BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR SHORT
PERIODS OF TIMES.

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GENTLE TO MODERATE TONIGHT AHEAD
AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT. MODELS SUGGEST H850 WINDS OF 50 TO 60
KNOTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND A PORTION OF THESE WINDS CAN BE
MIXED DOWN BY ANY SHOWER.

COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY 13-14Z
MONDAY MORNING...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS SPREADING FROM WEST TO
EAST BY MID MORNING TO NOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP LATER TONIGHT MAY
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JB/ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 291725
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
125 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS EAST...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO SPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL COLD FRONTS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE UP COMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND H850 SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGS WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN INCOMING WARM/COLD FRONT
COMBO ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. H500 CHARTS INDICATE THAT
MOST OF THE ENERGY FROM THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES NORTH ACROSS PA.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS INCREASING OVER SOUTHEAST OH BY 03Z...SPREADING EAST
ACROSS WV OVERNIGHT. BY 12Z THE BULK OF PCPN SHOULD BE ALONG THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS EAST. PERIODS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH NO FLOODING ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL PER SREF
PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE RAIN EXCEEDING 80 PERCENT...AND GOOD
TIMING CONSENSUS IN QPF FIELDS FROM OTHER MODELS. AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP.
OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS ALONG SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE NAM
MODEL SUPPORTS THIS REASONING SHOWING 50 TO 60 KNOTS AT H850.
BELIEVE ANY SHOWER COULD MIX DOWN A FRACTION OF THESE WINDS ALONG
THEIR PATH.

MODELS SUGGEST H850 FREEZING LEVEL LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE CWA...SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM MUCH UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW. COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...CAPABLE TO CHANGE RAIN SHOWERS TO LIGHT SNOW OR MIX OVER THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS LATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
PATTERN CONTINUES TO UNDERGO CHANGE THIS PERIOD FROM A DEEP
EASTERN UPPER TROUGH AND WESTERN UPPER RIDGE...TO A MORE ZONAL
TYPE FLOW ALOFT. ONE LAST CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST
LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT JUST NORTH AND EAST OF OUR
AREA...BRINGING A WEAK FRONT ACROSS TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE MOISTURE
IS AVAILABLE INTO THIS SYSTEM...THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARM
ADVECTION NORTH OF THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL KEEP MOST OF
THE ATTENDING LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE SYSTEM IN THE NORTH. MODELS
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS
WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE REAL PATTERN CHANGE TAKES EFFECT. UP TO THIS
POINT TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO A WARMING TREND...EVEN BEHIND THE
WEAK FRONT...AS AIR BECOMES INCREASINGLY PACIFIC IN NATURE.

BY THURSDAY...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF PACIFIC SYSTEMS ROLLS ACROSS
THE NATION WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TAKING CONTROL. IN THIS
PATTERN...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF THE NATION...WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO OPENING UP WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. WHILE THE EXACT STRENGTH AND
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS QUESTIONABLE...IT WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM...WITH
QUITE WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC WHICH GIVES A NOD TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
SOLUTION FOR LATE WEEK AND INTO EASTER WEEKEND. WHILE A SIGNIFICANT
WARMUP IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK...IT MAY BE HAMPERED BY SHOWERS
ON LATE THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A PESKY DISTURBANCE COMES
OUT OF THE S STREAM BEFORE HEIGHTS CAN BUILD. THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL
BE FRIDAY EVENING. A DEEPENING LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AS A S/W TROF GOES NEGATIVE TILT. THE RESULTING STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND LLJ MAY PRODUCE A HEALTHY LINE OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WITH IT AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING
DAYS. THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEEKEND
IS SHAPING UP TO BE RATHER COOL...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WITH EVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS A HIGH PRESSURE EXITS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT TO INCREASE CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT. THE BULK OF THE PCPN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WILL BE BELOW
FREEZING...SO EXPECT PCPN TO TRANSITION INTO SNOW OR A MIX PCPN
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

THEREFORE...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE INITIAL SHOWERS
REACHING SOUTHEAST OH...PKB AND HTS AROUND 03-05Z. THEN...SHOWERS
AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL SPREAD EAST TO
AFFECT THE REST OF SITES. IFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN INCLUDING BKW AFTER 08Z. SHOWER RELATED IFR CONDITIONS CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT IF SHOWERS BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR SHORT
PERIODS OF TIMES.

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GENTLE TO MODERATE TONIGHT AHEAD
AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT. MODELS SUGGEST H850 WINDS OF 50 TO 60
KNOTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND A PORTION OF THESE WINDS CAN BE
MIXED DOWN BY ANY SHOWER.

COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY 13-14Z
MONDAY MORNING...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS SPREADING FROM WEST TO
EAST BY MID MORNING TO NOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP LATER TONIGHT MAY
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JB/ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 291725
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
125 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS EAST...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO SPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL COLD FRONTS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE UP COMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND H850 SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGS WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN INCOMING WARM/COLD FRONT
COMBO ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. H500 CHARTS INDICATE THAT
MOST OF THE ENERGY FROM THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES NORTH ACROSS PA.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS INCREASING OVER SOUTHEAST OH BY 03Z...SPREADING EAST
ACROSS WV OVERNIGHT. BY 12Z THE BULK OF PCPN SHOULD BE ALONG THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS EAST. PERIODS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH NO FLOODING ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL PER SREF
PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE RAIN EXCEEDING 80 PERCENT...AND GOOD
TIMING CONSENSUS IN QPF FIELDS FROM OTHER MODELS. AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP.
OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS ALONG SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE NAM
MODEL SUPPORTS THIS REASONING SHOWING 50 TO 60 KNOTS AT H850.
BELIEVE ANY SHOWER COULD MIX DOWN A FRACTION OF THESE WINDS ALONG
THEIR PATH.

MODELS SUGGEST H850 FREEZING LEVEL LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE CWA...SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM MUCH UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW. COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...CAPABLE TO CHANGE RAIN SHOWERS TO LIGHT SNOW OR MIX OVER THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS LATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
PATTERN CONTINUES TO UNDERGO CHANGE THIS PERIOD FROM A DEEP
EASTERN UPPER TROUGH AND WESTERN UPPER RIDGE...TO A MORE ZONAL
TYPE FLOW ALOFT. ONE LAST CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST
LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT JUST NORTH AND EAST OF OUR
AREA...BRINGING A WEAK FRONT ACROSS TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE MOISTURE
IS AVAILABLE INTO THIS SYSTEM...THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARM
ADVECTION NORTH OF THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL KEEP MOST OF
THE ATTENDING LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE SYSTEM IN THE NORTH. MODELS
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS
WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE REAL PATTERN CHANGE TAKES EFFECT. UP TO THIS
POINT TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO A WARMING TREND...EVEN BEHIND THE
WEAK FRONT...AS AIR BECOMES INCREASINGLY PACIFIC IN NATURE.

BY THURSDAY...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF PACIFIC SYSTEMS ROLLS ACROSS
THE NATION WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TAKING CONTROL. IN THIS
PATTERN...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF THE NATION...WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO OPENING UP WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. WHILE THE EXACT STRENGTH AND
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS QUESTIONABLE...IT WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM...WITH
QUITE WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC WHICH GIVES A NOD TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
SOLUTION FOR LATE WEEK AND INTO EASTER WEEKEND. WHILE A SIGNIFICANT
WARMUP IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK...IT MAY BE HAMPERED BY SHOWERS
ON LATE THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A PESKY DISTURBANCE COMES
OUT OF THE S STREAM BEFORE HEIGHTS CAN BUILD. THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL
BE FRIDAY EVENING. A DEEPENING LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AS A S/W TROF GOES NEGATIVE TILT. THE RESULTING STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND LLJ MAY PRODUCE A HEALTHY LINE OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WITH IT AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING
DAYS. THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEEKEND
IS SHAPING UP TO BE RATHER COOL...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WITH EVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS A HIGH PRESSURE EXITS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT TO INCREASE CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT. THE BULK OF THE PCPN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WILL BE BELOW
FREEZING...SO EXPECT PCPN TO TRANSITION INTO SNOW OR A MIX PCPN
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

THEREFORE...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE INITIAL SHOWERS
REACHING SOUTHEAST OH...PKB AND HTS AROUND 03-05Z. THEN...SHOWERS
AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL SPREAD EAST TO
AFFECT THE REST OF SITES. IFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN INCLUDING BKW AFTER 08Z. SHOWER RELATED IFR CONDITIONS CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT IF SHOWERS BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR SHORT
PERIODS OF TIMES.

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GENTLE TO MODERATE TONIGHT AHEAD
AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT. MODELS SUGGEST H850 WINDS OF 50 TO 60
KNOTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND A PORTION OF THESE WINDS CAN BE
MIXED DOWN BY ANY SHOWER.

COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY 13-14Z
MONDAY MORNING...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS SPREADING FROM WEST TO
EAST BY MID MORNING TO NOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP LATER TONIGHT MAY
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JB/ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ










000
FXUS61 KRLX 291725
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
125 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS EAST...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO SPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL COLD FRONTS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE UP COMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND H850 SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGS WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN INCOMING WARM/COLD FRONT
COMBO ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. H500 CHARTS INDICATE THAT
MOST OF THE ENERGY FROM THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES NORTH ACROSS PA.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS INCREASING OVER SOUTHEAST OH BY 03Z...SPREADING EAST
ACROSS WV OVERNIGHT. BY 12Z THE BULK OF PCPN SHOULD BE ALONG THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS EAST. PERIODS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH NO FLOODING ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL PER SREF
PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE RAIN EXCEEDING 80 PERCENT...AND GOOD
TIMING CONSENSUS IN QPF FIELDS FROM OTHER MODELS. AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP.
OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS ALONG SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE NAM
MODEL SUPPORTS THIS REASONING SHOWING 50 TO 60 KNOTS AT H850.
BELIEVE ANY SHOWER COULD MIX DOWN A FRACTION OF THESE WINDS ALONG
THEIR PATH.

MODELS SUGGEST H850 FREEZING LEVEL LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE CWA...SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM MUCH UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW. COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...CAPABLE TO CHANGE RAIN SHOWERS TO LIGHT SNOW OR MIX OVER THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS LATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
PATTERN CONTINUES TO UNDERGO CHANGE THIS PERIOD FROM A DEEP
EASTERN UPPER TROUGH AND WESTERN UPPER RIDGE...TO A MORE ZONAL
TYPE FLOW ALOFT. ONE LAST CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST
LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT JUST NORTH AND EAST OF OUR
AREA...BRINGING A WEAK FRONT ACROSS TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE MOISTURE
IS AVAILABLE INTO THIS SYSTEM...THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARM
ADVECTION NORTH OF THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL KEEP MOST OF
THE ATTENDING LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE SYSTEM IN THE NORTH. MODELS
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS
WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE REAL PATTERN CHANGE TAKES EFFECT. UP TO THIS
POINT TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO A WARMING TREND...EVEN BEHIND THE
WEAK FRONT...AS AIR BECOMES INCREASINGLY PACIFIC IN NATURE.

BY THURSDAY...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF PACIFIC SYSTEMS ROLLS ACROSS
THE NATION WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TAKING CONTROL. IN THIS
PATTERN...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF THE NATION...WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO OPENING UP WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. WHILE THE EXACT STRENGTH AND
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS QUESTIONABLE...IT WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM...WITH
QUITE WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC WHICH GIVES A NOD TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
SOLUTION FOR LATE WEEK AND INTO EASTER WEEKEND. WHILE A SIGNIFICANT
WARMUP IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK...IT MAY BE HAMPERED BY SHOWERS
ON LATE THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A PESKY DISTURBANCE COMES
OUT OF THE S STREAM BEFORE HEIGHTS CAN BUILD. THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL
BE FRIDAY EVENING. A DEEPENING LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AS A S/W TROF GOES NEGATIVE TILT. THE RESULTING STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND LLJ MAY PRODUCE A HEALTHY LINE OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WITH IT AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING
DAYS. THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEEKEND
IS SHAPING UP TO BE RATHER COOL...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WITH EVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS A HIGH PRESSURE EXITS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT TO INCREASE CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT. THE BULK OF THE PCPN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WILL BE BELOW
FREEZING...SO EXPECT PCPN TO TRANSITION INTO SNOW OR A MIX PCPN
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

THEREFORE...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE INITIAL SHOWERS
REACHING SOUTHEAST OH...PKB AND HTS AROUND 03-05Z. THEN...SHOWERS
AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL SPREAD EAST TO
AFFECT THE REST OF SITES. IFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN INCLUDING BKW AFTER 08Z. SHOWER RELATED IFR CONDITIONS CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT IF SHOWERS BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR SHORT
PERIODS OF TIMES.

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GENTLE TO MODERATE TONIGHT AHEAD
AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT. MODELS SUGGEST H850 WINDS OF 50 TO 60
KNOTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND A PORTION OF THESE WINDS CAN BE
MIXED DOWN BY ANY SHOWER.

COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY 13-14Z
MONDAY MORNING...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS SPREADING FROM WEST TO
EAST BY MID MORNING TO NOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP LATER TONIGHT MAY
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JB/ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ










000
FXUS61 KRLX 291725
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
125 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS EAST...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO SPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL COLD FRONTS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE UP COMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND H850 SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGS WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN INCOMING WARM/COLD FRONT
COMBO ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. H500 CHARTS INDICATE THAT
MOST OF THE ENERGY FROM THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES NORTH ACROSS PA.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS INCREASING OVER SOUTHEAST OH BY 03Z...SPREADING EAST
ACROSS WV OVERNIGHT. BY 12Z THE BULK OF PCPN SHOULD BE ALONG THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS EAST. PERIODS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH NO FLOODING ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL PER SREF
PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE RAIN EXCEEDING 80 PERCENT...AND GOOD
TIMING CONSENSUS IN QPF FIELDS FROM OTHER MODELS. AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP.
OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS ALONG SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE NAM
MODEL SUPPORTS THIS REASONING SHOWING 50 TO 60 KNOTS AT H850.
BELIEVE ANY SHOWER COULD MIX DOWN A FRACTION OF THESE WINDS ALONG
THEIR PATH.

MODELS SUGGEST H850 FREEZING LEVEL LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE CWA...SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM MUCH UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW. COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...CAPABLE TO CHANGE RAIN SHOWERS TO LIGHT SNOW OR MIX OVER THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS LATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
PATTERN CONTINUES TO UNDERGO CHANGE THIS PERIOD FROM A DEEP
EASTERN UPPER TROUGH AND WESTERN UPPER RIDGE...TO A MORE ZONAL
TYPE FLOW ALOFT. ONE LAST CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST
LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT JUST NORTH AND EAST OF OUR
AREA...BRINGING A WEAK FRONT ACROSS TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE MOISTURE
IS AVAILABLE INTO THIS SYSTEM...THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARM
ADVECTION NORTH OF THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL KEEP MOST OF
THE ATTENDING LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE SYSTEM IN THE NORTH. MODELS
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS
WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE REAL PATTERN CHANGE TAKES EFFECT. UP TO THIS
POINT TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO A WARMING TREND...EVEN BEHIND THE
WEAK FRONT...AS AIR BECOMES INCREASINGLY PACIFIC IN NATURE.

BY THURSDAY...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF PACIFIC SYSTEMS ROLLS ACROSS
THE NATION WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TAKING CONTROL. IN THIS
PATTERN...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF THE NATION...WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO OPENING UP WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. WHILE THE EXACT STRENGTH AND
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS QUESTIONABLE...IT WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM...WITH
QUITE WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC WHICH GIVES A NOD TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
SOLUTION FOR LATE WEEK AND INTO EASTER WEEKEND. WHILE A SIGNIFICANT
WARMUP IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK...IT MAY BE HAMPERED BY SHOWERS
ON LATE THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A PESKY DISTURBANCE COMES
OUT OF THE S STREAM BEFORE HEIGHTS CAN BUILD. THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL
BE FRIDAY EVENING. A DEEPENING LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AS A S/W TROF GOES NEGATIVE TILT. THE RESULTING STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND LLJ MAY PRODUCE A HEALTHY LINE OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WITH IT AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING
DAYS. THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEEKEND
IS SHAPING UP TO BE RATHER COOL...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WITH EVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS A HIGH PRESSURE EXITS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT TO INCREASE CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT. THE BULK OF THE PCPN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WILL BE BELOW
FREEZING...SO EXPECT PCPN TO TRANSITION INTO SNOW OR A MIX PCPN
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

THEREFORE...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE INITIAL SHOWERS
REACHING SOUTHEAST OH...PKB AND HTS AROUND 03-05Z. THEN...SHOWERS
AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL SPREAD EAST TO
AFFECT THE REST OF SITES. IFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN INCLUDING BKW AFTER 08Z. SHOWER RELATED IFR CONDITIONS CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT IF SHOWERS BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR SHORT
PERIODS OF TIMES.

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GENTLE TO MODERATE TONIGHT AHEAD
AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT. MODELS SUGGEST H850 WINDS OF 50 TO 60
KNOTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND A PORTION OF THESE WINDS CAN BE
MIXED DOWN BY ANY SHOWER.

COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY 13-14Z
MONDAY MORNING...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS SPREADING FROM WEST TO
EAST BY MID MORNING TO NOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP LATER TONIGHT MAY
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JB/ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ










000
FXUS61 KRLX 291725
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
125 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS EAST...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO SPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL COLD FRONTS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE UP COMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND H850 SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGS WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN INCOMING WARM/COLD FRONT
COMBO ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. H500 CHARTS INDICATE THAT
MOST OF THE ENERGY FROM THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES NORTH ACROSS PA.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS INCREASING OVER SOUTHEAST OH BY 03Z...SPREADING EAST
ACROSS WV OVERNIGHT. BY 12Z THE BULK OF PCPN SHOULD BE ALONG THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS EAST. PERIODS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH NO FLOODING ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL PER SREF
PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE RAIN EXCEEDING 80 PERCENT...AND GOOD
TIMING CONSENSUS IN QPF FIELDS FROM OTHER MODELS. AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP.
OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS ALONG SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE NAM
MODEL SUPPORTS THIS REASONING SHOWING 50 TO 60 KNOTS AT H850.
BELIEVE ANY SHOWER COULD MIX DOWN A FRACTION OF THESE WINDS ALONG
THEIR PATH.

MODELS SUGGEST H850 FREEZING LEVEL LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE CWA...SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM MUCH UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW. COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...CAPABLE TO CHANGE RAIN SHOWERS TO LIGHT SNOW OR MIX OVER THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS LATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
PATTERN CONTINUES TO UNDERGO CHANGE THIS PERIOD FROM A DEEP
EASTERN UPPER TROUGH AND WESTERN UPPER RIDGE...TO A MORE ZONAL
TYPE FLOW ALOFT. ONE LAST CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST
LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT JUST NORTH AND EAST OF OUR
AREA...BRINGING A WEAK FRONT ACROSS TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE MOISTURE
IS AVAILABLE INTO THIS SYSTEM...THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARM
ADVECTION NORTH OF THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL KEEP MOST OF
THE ATTENDING LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE SYSTEM IN THE NORTH. MODELS
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS
WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE REAL PATTERN CHANGE TAKES EFFECT. UP TO THIS
POINT TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO A WARMING TREND...EVEN BEHIND THE
WEAK FRONT...AS AIR BECOMES INCREASINGLY PACIFIC IN NATURE.

BY THURSDAY...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF PACIFIC SYSTEMS ROLLS ACROSS
THE NATION WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TAKING CONTROL. IN THIS
PATTERN...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF THE NATION...WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO OPENING UP WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. WHILE THE EXACT STRENGTH AND
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS QUESTIONABLE...IT WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM...WITH
QUITE WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC WHICH GIVES A NOD TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
SOLUTION FOR LATE WEEK AND INTO EASTER WEEKEND. WHILE A SIGNIFICANT
WARMUP IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK...IT MAY BE HAMPERED BY SHOWERS
ON LATE THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A PESKY DISTURBANCE COMES
OUT OF THE S STREAM BEFORE HEIGHTS CAN BUILD. THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL
BE FRIDAY EVENING. A DEEPENING LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AS A S/W TROF GOES NEGATIVE TILT. THE RESULTING STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND LLJ MAY PRODUCE A HEALTHY LINE OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WITH IT AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING
DAYS. THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEEKEND
IS SHAPING UP TO BE RATHER COOL...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WITH EVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS A HIGH PRESSURE EXITS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT TO INCREASE CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT. THE BULK OF THE PCPN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WILL BE BELOW
FREEZING...SO EXPECT PCPN TO TRANSITION INTO SNOW OR A MIX PCPN
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

THEREFORE...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE INITIAL SHOWERS
REACHING SOUTHEAST OH...PKB AND HTS AROUND 03-05Z. THEN...SHOWERS
AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL SPREAD EAST TO
AFFECT THE REST OF SITES. IFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN INCLUDING BKW AFTER 08Z. SHOWER RELATED IFR CONDITIONS CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT IF SHOWERS BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR SHORT
PERIODS OF TIMES.

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GENTLE TO MODERATE TONIGHT AHEAD
AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT. MODELS SUGGEST H850 WINDS OF 50 TO 60
KNOTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND A PORTION OF THESE WINDS CAN BE
MIXED DOWN BY ANY SHOWER.

COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY 13-14Z
MONDAY MORNING...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS SPREADING FROM WEST TO
EAST BY MID MORNING TO NOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP LATER TONIGHT MAY
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JB/ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ










000
FXUS61 KRLX 291541
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1141 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SEVERAL COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE UP
COMING WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS PER LATEST
SFC OBS. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS REPRESENTATIVE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES
TONIGHT. RAMPED UP POPS SLIGHTLY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS FOR LATE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS COME TOGETHER
FOR A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...WITH RAIN SNOW MIX OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.
GENERALLY ACCEPTED INHERITED TEMPERATURES WITH MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
PATTERN CONTINUES TO UNDERGO CHANGE THIS PERIOD FROM A DEEP
EASTERN UPPER TROUGH AND WESTERN UPPER RIDGE...TO A MORE ZONAL
TYPE FLOW ALOFT. ONE LAST CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST
LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT JUST NORTH AND EAST OF OUR
AREA...BRINGING A WEAK FRONT ACROSS TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE MOISTURE
IS AVAILABLE INTO THIS SYSTEM...THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARM
ADVECTION NORTH OF THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL KEEP MOST OF
THE ATTENDING LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE SYSTEM IN THE NORTH. MODELS
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS
WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE REAL PATTERN CHANGE TAKES EFFECT. UP TO THIS
POINT TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO A WARMING TREND...EVEN BEHIND THE
WEAK FRONT...AS AIR BECOMES INCREASINGLY PACIFIC IN NATURE.

BY THURSDAY...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF PACIFIC SYSTEMS ROLLS ACROSS
THE NATION WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TAKING CONTROL. IN THIS
PATTERN...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF THE NATION...WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO OPENING UP WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. WHILE THE EXACT STRENGTH AND
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS QUESTIONABLE...IT WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM...WITH
QUITE WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC WHICH GIVES A NOD TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
SOLUTION FOR LATE WEEK AND INTO EASTER WEEKEND. WHILE A SIGNIFICANT
WARMUP IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK...IT MAY BE HAMPERED BY SHOWERS
ON LATE THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A PESKY DISTURBANCE COMES
OUT OF THE S STREAM BEFORE HEIGHTS CAN BUILD. THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL
BE FRIDAY EVENING. A DEEPENING LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AS A S/W TROF GOES NEGATIVE TILT. THE RESULTING STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND LLJ MAY PRODUCE A HEALTHY LINE OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WITH IT AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING
DAYS. THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEEKEND
IS SHAPING UP TO BE RATHER COOL...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WITH EVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. THEN AFTER 03Z...CIG AND VISBY VALUES
LOWER AS FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE MVFR CONDITIONS
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD FOR ALL SITES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP LATER TONIGHT MAY
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...KMC/ARJ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KMC








000
FXUS61 KRLX 291541
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1141 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SEVERAL COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE UP
COMING WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS PER LATEST
SFC OBS. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS REPRESENTATIVE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES
TONIGHT. RAMPED UP POPS SLIGHTLY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS FOR LATE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS COME TOGETHER
FOR A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...WITH RAIN SNOW MIX OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.
GENERALLY ACCEPTED INHERITED TEMPERATURES WITH MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
PATTERN CONTINUES TO UNDERGO CHANGE THIS PERIOD FROM A DEEP
EASTERN UPPER TROUGH AND WESTERN UPPER RIDGE...TO A MORE ZONAL
TYPE FLOW ALOFT. ONE LAST CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST
LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT JUST NORTH AND EAST OF OUR
AREA...BRINGING A WEAK FRONT ACROSS TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE MOISTURE
IS AVAILABLE INTO THIS SYSTEM...THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARM
ADVECTION NORTH OF THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL KEEP MOST OF
THE ATTENDING LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE SYSTEM IN THE NORTH. MODELS
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS
WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE REAL PATTERN CHANGE TAKES EFFECT. UP TO THIS
POINT TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO A WARMING TREND...EVEN BEHIND THE
WEAK FRONT...AS AIR BECOMES INCREASINGLY PACIFIC IN NATURE.

BY THURSDAY...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF PACIFIC SYSTEMS ROLLS ACROSS
THE NATION WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TAKING CONTROL. IN THIS
PATTERN...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF THE NATION...WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO OPENING UP WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. WHILE THE EXACT STRENGTH AND
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS QUESTIONABLE...IT WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM...WITH
QUITE WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC WHICH GIVES A NOD TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
SOLUTION FOR LATE WEEK AND INTO EASTER WEEKEND. WHILE A SIGNIFICANT
WARMUP IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK...IT MAY BE HAMPERED BY SHOWERS
ON LATE THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A PESKY DISTURBANCE COMES
OUT OF THE S STREAM BEFORE HEIGHTS CAN BUILD. THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL
BE FRIDAY EVENING. A DEEPENING LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AS A S/W TROF GOES NEGATIVE TILT. THE RESULTING STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND LLJ MAY PRODUCE A HEALTHY LINE OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WITH IT AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING
DAYS. THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEEKEND
IS SHAPING UP TO BE RATHER COOL...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WITH EVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. THEN AFTER 03Z...CIG AND VISBY VALUES
LOWER AS FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE MVFR CONDITIONS
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD FOR ALL SITES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP LATER TONIGHT MAY
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...KMC/ARJ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KMC








000
FXUS61 KRLX 291541
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1141 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SEVERAL COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE UP
COMING WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS PER LATEST
SFC OBS. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS REPRESENTATIVE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES
TONIGHT. RAMPED UP POPS SLIGHTLY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS FOR LATE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS COME TOGETHER
FOR A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...WITH RAIN SNOW MIX OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.
GENERALLY ACCEPTED INHERITED TEMPERATURES WITH MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
PATTERN CONTINUES TO UNDERGO CHANGE THIS PERIOD FROM A DEEP
EASTERN UPPER TROUGH AND WESTERN UPPER RIDGE...TO A MORE ZONAL
TYPE FLOW ALOFT. ONE LAST CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST
LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT JUST NORTH AND EAST OF OUR
AREA...BRINGING A WEAK FRONT ACROSS TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE MOISTURE
IS AVAILABLE INTO THIS SYSTEM...THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARM
ADVECTION NORTH OF THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL KEEP MOST OF
THE ATTENDING LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE SYSTEM IN THE NORTH. MODELS
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS
WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE REAL PATTERN CHANGE TAKES EFFECT. UP TO THIS
POINT TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO A WARMING TREND...EVEN BEHIND THE
WEAK FRONT...AS AIR BECOMES INCREASINGLY PACIFIC IN NATURE.

BY THURSDAY...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF PACIFIC SYSTEMS ROLLS ACROSS
THE NATION WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TAKING CONTROL. IN THIS
PATTERN...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF THE NATION...WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO OPENING UP WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. WHILE THE EXACT STRENGTH AND
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS QUESTIONABLE...IT WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM...WITH
QUITE WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC WHICH GIVES A NOD TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
SOLUTION FOR LATE WEEK AND INTO EASTER WEEKEND. WHILE A SIGNIFICANT
WARMUP IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK...IT MAY BE HAMPERED BY SHOWERS
ON LATE THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A PESKY DISTURBANCE COMES
OUT OF THE S STREAM BEFORE HEIGHTS CAN BUILD. THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL
BE FRIDAY EVENING. A DEEPENING LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AS A S/W TROF GOES NEGATIVE TILT. THE RESULTING STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND LLJ MAY PRODUCE A HEALTHY LINE OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WITH IT AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING
DAYS. THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEEKEND
IS SHAPING UP TO BE RATHER COOL...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WITH EVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. THEN AFTER 03Z...CIG AND VISBY VALUES
LOWER AS FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE MVFR CONDITIONS
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD FOR ALL SITES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP LATER TONIGHT MAY
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...KMC/ARJ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KMC








000
FXUS61 KRLX 291541
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1141 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SEVERAL COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE UP
COMING WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS PER LATEST
SFC OBS. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS REPRESENTATIVE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES
TONIGHT. RAMPED UP POPS SLIGHTLY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS FOR LATE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS COME TOGETHER
FOR A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...WITH RAIN SNOW MIX OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.
GENERALLY ACCEPTED INHERITED TEMPERATURES WITH MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
PATTERN CONTINUES TO UNDERGO CHANGE THIS PERIOD FROM A DEEP
EASTERN UPPER TROUGH AND WESTERN UPPER RIDGE...TO A MORE ZONAL
TYPE FLOW ALOFT. ONE LAST CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST
LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT JUST NORTH AND EAST OF OUR
AREA...BRINGING A WEAK FRONT ACROSS TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE MOISTURE
IS AVAILABLE INTO THIS SYSTEM...THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARM
ADVECTION NORTH OF THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL KEEP MOST OF
THE ATTENDING LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE SYSTEM IN THE NORTH. MODELS
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS
WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE REAL PATTERN CHANGE TAKES EFFECT. UP TO THIS
POINT TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO A WARMING TREND...EVEN BEHIND THE
WEAK FRONT...AS AIR BECOMES INCREASINGLY PACIFIC IN NATURE.

BY THURSDAY...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF PACIFIC SYSTEMS ROLLS ACROSS
THE NATION WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TAKING CONTROL. IN THIS
PATTERN...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF THE NATION...WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO OPENING UP WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. WHILE THE EXACT STRENGTH AND
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS QUESTIONABLE...IT WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM...WITH
QUITE WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC WHICH GIVES A NOD TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
SOLUTION FOR LATE WEEK AND INTO EASTER WEEKEND. WHILE A SIGNIFICANT
WARMUP IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK...IT MAY BE HAMPERED BY SHOWERS
ON LATE THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A PESKY DISTURBANCE COMES
OUT OF THE S STREAM BEFORE HEIGHTS CAN BUILD. THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL
BE FRIDAY EVENING. A DEEPENING LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AS A S/W TROF GOES NEGATIVE TILT. THE RESULTING STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND LLJ MAY PRODUCE A HEALTHY LINE OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WITH IT AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING
DAYS. THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEEKEND
IS SHAPING UP TO BE RATHER COOL...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WITH EVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. THEN AFTER 03Z...CIG AND VISBY VALUES
LOWER AS FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE MVFR CONDITIONS
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD FOR ALL SITES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP LATER TONIGHT MAY
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...KMC/ARJ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KMC








000
FXUS61 KRLX 291009
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
609 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST THROUGH SUNDAY. SEVERAL
COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE UP COMING
WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES
TONIGHT. RAMPED UP POPS SLIGHTLY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS FOR LATE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS COME TOGETHER
FOR A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...WITH RAIN SNOW MIX OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.
GENERALLY ACCEPTED INHERITED TEMPERATURES WITH MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
PATTERN CONTINUES TO UNDERGO CHANGE THIS PERIOD FROM A DEEP
EASTERN UPPER TROUGH AND WESTERN UPPER RIDGE...TO A MORE ZONAL
TYPE FLOW ALOFT. ONE LAST CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST
LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT JUST NORTH AND EAST OF OUR
AREA...BRINGING A WEAK FRONT ACROSS TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE MOISTURE
IS AVAILABLE INTO THIS SYSTEM...THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARM
ADVECTION NORTH OF THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL KEEP MOST OF
THE ATTENDING LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE SYSTEM IN THE NORTH. MODELS
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS
WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE REAL PATTERN CHANGE TAKES EFFECT. UP TO THIS
POINT TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO A WARMING TREND...EVEN BEHIND THE
WEAK FRONT...AS AIR BECOMES INCREASINGLY PACIFIC IN NATURE.

BY THURSDAY...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF PACIFIC SYSTEMS ROLLS ACROSS
THE NATION WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TAKING CONTROL. IN THIS
PATTERN...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF THE NATION...WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO OPENING UP WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. WHILE THE EXACT STRENGTH AND
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS QUESTIONABLE...IT WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM...WITH
QUITE WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC WHICH GIVES A NOD TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
SOLUTION FOR LATE WEEK AND INTO EASTER WEEKEND. WHILE A SIGNIFICANT
WARMUP IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK...IT MAY BE HAMPERED BY SHOWERS
ON LATE THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A PESKY DISTURBANCE COMES
OUT OF THE S STREAM BEFORE HEIGHTS CAN BUILD. THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL
BE FRIDAY EVENING. A DEEPENING LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AS A S/W TROF GOES NEGATIVE TILT. THE RESULTING STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND LLJ MAY PRODUCE A HEALTHY LINE OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WITH IT AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING
DAYS. THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEEKEND
IS SHAPING UP TO BE RATHER COOL...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WITH EVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. THEN AFTER 03Z...CIG AND VISBY VALUES
LOWER AS FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE MVFR CONDITIONS
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD FOR ALL SITES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP LATER TONIGHT MAY
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    SUN 03/29/15
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KMC






000
FXUS61 KRLX 291009
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
609 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST THROUGH SUNDAY. SEVERAL
COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE UP COMING
WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES
TONIGHT. RAMPED UP POPS SLIGHTLY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS FOR LATE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS COME TOGETHER
FOR A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...WITH RAIN SNOW MIX OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.
GENERALLY ACCEPTED INHERITED TEMPERATURES WITH MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
PATTERN CONTINUES TO UNDERGO CHANGE THIS PERIOD FROM A DEEP
EASTERN UPPER TROUGH AND WESTERN UPPER RIDGE...TO A MORE ZONAL
TYPE FLOW ALOFT. ONE LAST CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST
LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT JUST NORTH AND EAST OF OUR
AREA...BRINGING A WEAK FRONT ACROSS TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE MOISTURE
IS AVAILABLE INTO THIS SYSTEM...THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARM
ADVECTION NORTH OF THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL KEEP MOST OF
THE ATTENDING LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE SYSTEM IN THE NORTH. MODELS
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS
WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE REAL PATTERN CHANGE TAKES EFFECT. UP TO THIS
POINT TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO A WARMING TREND...EVEN BEHIND THE
WEAK FRONT...AS AIR BECOMES INCREASINGLY PACIFIC IN NATURE.

BY THURSDAY...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF PACIFIC SYSTEMS ROLLS ACROSS
THE NATION WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TAKING CONTROL. IN THIS
PATTERN...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF THE NATION...WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO OPENING UP WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. WHILE THE EXACT STRENGTH AND
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS QUESTIONABLE...IT WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM...WITH
QUITE WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC WHICH GIVES A NOD TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
SOLUTION FOR LATE WEEK AND INTO EASTER WEEKEND. WHILE A SIGNIFICANT
WARMUP IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK...IT MAY BE HAMPERED BY SHOWERS
ON LATE THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A PESKY DISTURBANCE COMES
OUT OF THE S STREAM BEFORE HEIGHTS CAN BUILD. THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL
BE FRIDAY EVENING. A DEEPENING LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AS A S/W TROF GOES NEGATIVE TILT. THE RESULTING STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND LLJ MAY PRODUCE A HEALTHY LINE OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WITH IT AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING
DAYS. THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEEKEND
IS SHAPING UP TO BE RATHER COOL...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WITH EVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. THEN AFTER 03Z...CIG AND VISBY VALUES
LOWER AS FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE MVFR CONDITIONS
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD FOR ALL SITES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP LATER TONIGHT MAY
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    SUN 03/29/15
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KMC





000
FXUS61 KRLX 290701
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
301 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST THROUGH SUNDAY. SEVERAL
COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE UP COMING
WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES
TONIGHT. RAMPED UP POPS SLIGHTLY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS FOR LATE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS COME TOGETHER
FOR A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...WITH RAIN SNOW MIX OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.
GENERALLY ACCEPTED INHERITED TEMPERATURES WITH MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PATTERN CONTINUES TO UNDERGO CHANGE THIS PERIOD FROM A DEEP
EASTERN UPPER TROUGH AND WESTERN UPPER RIDGE...TO A MORE ZONAL
TYPE FLOW ALOFT. ONE LAST CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST
LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT JUST NORTH AND EAST OF OUR
AREA...BRINGING A WEAK FRONT ACROSS TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE MOISTURE
IS AVAILABLE INTO THIS SYSTEM...THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARM
ADVECTION NORTH OF THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL KEEP MOST OF
THE ATTENDING LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE SYSTEM IN THE NORTH. MODELS
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS
WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE REAL PATTERN CHANGE TAKES EFFECT. UP TO THIS
POINT TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO A WARMING TREND...EVEN BEHIND THE
WEAK FRONT...AS AIR BECOMES INCREASINGLY PACIFIC IN NATURE.

BY THURSDAY...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF PACIFIC SYSTEMS ROLLS ACROSS
THE NATION WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TAKING CONTROL. IN THIS
PATTERN...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF THE NATION...WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO OPENING UP WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. WHILE THE EXACT STRENGTH AND
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS QUESTIONABLE...IT WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM...WITH
QUITE WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC WHICH GIVES A NOD TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
SOLUTION FOR LATE WEEK AND INTO EASTER WEEKEND. WHILE A SIGNIFICANT
WARMUP IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK...IT MAY BE HAMPERED BY SHOWERS
ON LATE THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A PESKY DISTURBANCE COMES
OUT OF THE S STREAM BEFORE HEIGHTS CAN BUILD. THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL
BE FRIDAY EVENING. A DEEPENING LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AS A S/W TROF GOES NEGATIVE TILT. THE RESULTING STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND LLJ MAY PRODUCE A HEALTHY LINE OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WITH IT AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING
DAYS. THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEEKEND
IS SHAPING UP TO BE RATHER COOL...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WITH EVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. AFTER 03Z...CIG AND VISBY VALUES
LOWER AS FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE MVFR CONDITIONS
BYE THE END OF THE PERIOD FOR ALL SITES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME MVFR CLOUDS ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SUN 03/29/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KMC








000
FXUS61 KRLX 290701
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
301 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST THROUGH SUNDAY. SEVERAL
COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE UP COMING
WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES
TONIGHT. RAMPED UP POPS SLIGHTLY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS FOR LATE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS COME TOGETHER
FOR A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...WITH RAIN SNOW MIX OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.
GENERALLY ACCEPTED INHERITED TEMPERATURES WITH MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PATTERN CONTINUES TO UNDERGO CHANGE THIS PERIOD FROM A DEEP
EASTERN UPPER TROUGH AND WESTERN UPPER RIDGE...TO A MORE ZONAL
TYPE FLOW ALOFT. ONE LAST CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST
LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT JUST NORTH AND EAST OF OUR
AREA...BRINGING A WEAK FRONT ACROSS TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE MOISTURE
IS AVAILABLE INTO THIS SYSTEM...THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARM
ADVECTION NORTH OF THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL KEEP MOST OF
THE ATTENDING LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE SYSTEM IN THE NORTH. MODELS
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS
WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE REAL PATTERN CHANGE TAKES EFFECT. UP TO THIS
POINT TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO A WARMING TREND...EVEN BEHIND THE
WEAK FRONT...AS AIR BECOMES INCREASINGLY PACIFIC IN NATURE.

BY THURSDAY...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF PACIFIC SYSTEMS ROLLS ACROSS
THE NATION WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TAKING CONTROL. IN THIS
PATTERN...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF THE NATION...WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO OPENING UP WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. WHILE THE EXACT STRENGTH AND
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS QUESTIONABLE...IT WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM...WITH
QUITE WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC WHICH GIVES A NOD TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
SOLUTION FOR LATE WEEK AND INTO EASTER WEEKEND. WHILE A SIGNIFICANT
WARMUP IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK...IT MAY BE HAMPERED BY SHOWERS
ON LATE THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A PESKY DISTURBANCE COMES
OUT OF THE S STREAM BEFORE HEIGHTS CAN BUILD. THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL
BE FRIDAY EVENING. A DEEPENING LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AS A S/W TROF GOES NEGATIVE TILT. THE RESULTING STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND LLJ MAY PRODUCE A HEALTHY LINE OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WITH IT AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING
DAYS. THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEEKEND
IS SHAPING UP TO BE RATHER COOL...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WITH EVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. AFTER 03Z...CIG AND VISBY VALUES
LOWER AS FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE MVFR CONDITIONS
BYE THE END OF THE PERIOD FOR ALL SITES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME MVFR CLOUDS ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SUN 03/29/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KMC









000
FXUS61 KRLX 290523
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
123 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST THROUGH SUNDAY. SEVERAL
COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE UP COMING
WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...WINDS BECOMING CALM...AND
VERY LOW DEW POINTS SHOULD COMBINE FOR SOME GOOD RADIATION
CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...SOME SNOW ON THE GROUND IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS SHOULD ALSO HELP LOWER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. WILL MOVE
LOWS TOWARD THE LOWER END OF MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK ZONAL FLOW SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE THE FIRST COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MAINLY SOME SHOWERS WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX FOR
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE COLD FRONT NUMBER TWO APPROACHES
TUESDAY NIGHT. INCREASED POPS FOR COLD FRONT NUMBER ONE. NOT SURE
HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MODELS HAVE
INCREASED MOISTURE WITH THE CURRENT MODEL RUN. ALSO HAVE INTRODUCED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE SECOND COLD
FRONT.

EXPECT A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
WILL GO FROM BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY TO ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC WHICH GIVES A NOD TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
SOLUTION FOR LATE WEEK AND INTO EASTER WEEKEND. WHILE A SIGNIFICANT
WARMUP IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK...IT MAY BE HAMPERED BY SHOWERS
ON LATE THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A PESKY DISTURBANCE COMES
OUT OF THE S STREAM BEFORE HEIGHTS CAN BUILD. THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL
BE FRIDAY EVENING. A DEEPENING LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AS A S/W TROF GOES NEGATIVE TILT. THE RESULTING STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND LLJ MAY PRODUCE A HEALTHY LINE OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WITH IT AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING
DAYS. THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEEKEND
IS SHAPING UP TO BE RATHER COOL...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WITH EVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. AFTER 03Z...CIG AND VISBY VALUES
LOWER AS FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE MVFR CONDITIONS
BYE THE END OF THE PERIOD FOR ALL SITES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME MVFR CLOUDS ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SUN 03/29/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KMC








000
FXUS61 KRLX 290523
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
123 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST THROUGH SUNDAY. SEVERAL
COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE UP COMING
WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...WINDS BECOMING CALM...AND
VERY LOW DEW POINTS SHOULD COMBINE FOR SOME GOOD RADIATION
CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...SOME SNOW ON THE GROUND IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS SHOULD ALSO HELP LOWER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. WILL MOVE
LOWS TOWARD THE LOWER END OF MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK ZONAL FLOW SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE THE FIRST COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MAINLY SOME SHOWERS WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX FOR
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE COLD FRONT NUMBER TWO APPROACHES
TUESDAY NIGHT. INCREASED POPS FOR COLD FRONT NUMBER ONE. NOT SURE
HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MODELS HAVE
INCREASED MOISTURE WITH THE CURRENT MODEL RUN. ALSO HAVE INTRODUCED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE SECOND COLD
FRONT.

EXPECT A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
WILL GO FROM BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY TO ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC WHICH GIVES A NOD TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
SOLUTION FOR LATE WEEK AND INTO EASTER WEEKEND. WHILE A SIGNIFICANT
WARMUP IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK...IT MAY BE HAMPERED BY SHOWERS
ON LATE THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A PESKY DISTURBANCE COMES
OUT OF THE S STREAM BEFORE HEIGHTS CAN BUILD. THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL
BE FRIDAY EVENING. A DEEPENING LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AS A S/W TROF GOES NEGATIVE TILT. THE RESULTING STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND LLJ MAY PRODUCE A HEALTHY LINE OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WITH IT AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING
DAYS. THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEEKEND
IS SHAPING UP TO BE RATHER COOL...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WITH EVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. AFTER 03Z...CIG AND VISBY VALUES
LOWER AS FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE MVFR CONDITIONS
BYE THE END OF THE PERIOD FOR ALL SITES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME MVFR CLOUDS ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SUN 03/29/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KMC








000
FXUS61 KRLX 290523
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
123 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST THROUGH SUNDAY. SEVERAL
COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE UP COMING
WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...WINDS BECOMING CALM...AND
VERY LOW DEW POINTS SHOULD COMBINE FOR SOME GOOD RADIATION
CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...SOME SNOW ON THE GROUND IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS SHOULD ALSO HELP LOWER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. WILL MOVE
LOWS TOWARD THE LOWER END OF MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK ZONAL FLOW SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE THE FIRST COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MAINLY SOME SHOWERS WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX FOR
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE COLD FRONT NUMBER TWO APPROACHES
TUESDAY NIGHT. INCREASED POPS FOR COLD FRONT NUMBER ONE. NOT SURE
HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MODELS HAVE
INCREASED MOISTURE WITH THE CURRENT MODEL RUN. ALSO HAVE INTRODUCED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE SECOND COLD
FRONT.

EXPECT A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
WILL GO FROM BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY TO ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC WHICH GIVES A NOD TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
SOLUTION FOR LATE WEEK AND INTO EASTER WEEKEND. WHILE A SIGNIFICANT
WARMUP IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK...IT MAY BE HAMPERED BY SHOWERS
ON LATE THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A PESKY DISTURBANCE COMES
OUT OF THE S STREAM BEFORE HEIGHTS CAN BUILD. THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL
BE FRIDAY EVENING. A DEEPENING LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AS A S/W TROF GOES NEGATIVE TILT. THE RESULTING STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND LLJ MAY PRODUCE A HEALTHY LINE OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WITH IT AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING
DAYS. THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEEKEND
IS SHAPING UP TO BE RATHER COOL...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WITH EVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. AFTER 03Z...CIG AND VISBY VALUES
LOWER AS FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE MVFR CONDITIONS
BYE THE END OF THE PERIOD FOR ALL SITES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME MVFR CLOUDS ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SUN 03/29/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KMC








000
FXUS61 KRLX 290523
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
123 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST THROUGH SUNDAY. SEVERAL
COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE UP COMING
WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...WINDS BECOMING CALM...AND
VERY LOW DEW POINTS SHOULD COMBINE FOR SOME GOOD RADIATION
CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...SOME SNOW ON THE GROUND IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS SHOULD ALSO HELP LOWER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. WILL MOVE
LOWS TOWARD THE LOWER END OF MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK ZONAL FLOW SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE THE FIRST COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MAINLY SOME SHOWERS WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX FOR
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE COLD FRONT NUMBER TWO APPROACHES
TUESDAY NIGHT. INCREASED POPS FOR COLD FRONT NUMBER ONE. NOT SURE
HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MODELS HAVE
INCREASED MOISTURE WITH THE CURRENT MODEL RUN. ALSO HAVE INTRODUCED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE SECOND COLD
FRONT.

EXPECT A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
WILL GO FROM BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY TO ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC WHICH GIVES A NOD TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
SOLUTION FOR LATE WEEK AND INTO EASTER WEEKEND. WHILE A SIGNIFICANT
WARMUP IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK...IT MAY BE HAMPERED BY SHOWERS
ON LATE THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A PESKY DISTURBANCE COMES
OUT OF THE S STREAM BEFORE HEIGHTS CAN BUILD. THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL
BE FRIDAY EVENING. A DEEPENING LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AS A S/W TROF GOES NEGATIVE TILT. THE RESULTING STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND LLJ MAY PRODUCE A HEALTHY LINE OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WITH IT AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING
DAYS. THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEEKEND
IS SHAPING UP TO BE RATHER COOL...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WITH EVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. AFTER 03Z...CIG AND VISBY VALUES
LOWER AS FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE MVFR CONDITIONS
BYE THE END OF THE PERIOD FOR ALL SITES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME MVFR CLOUDS ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SUN 03/29/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KMC








000
FXUS61 KRLX 290523
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
123 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST THROUGH SUNDAY. SEVERAL
COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE UP COMING
WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...WINDS BECOMING CALM...AND
VERY LOW DEW POINTS SHOULD COMBINE FOR SOME GOOD RADIATION
CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...SOME SNOW ON THE GROUND IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS SHOULD ALSO HELP LOWER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. WILL MOVE
LOWS TOWARD THE LOWER END OF MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK ZONAL FLOW SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE THE FIRST COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MAINLY SOME SHOWERS WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX FOR
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE COLD FRONT NUMBER TWO APPROACHES
TUESDAY NIGHT. INCREASED POPS FOR COLD FRONT NUMBER ONE. NOT SURE
HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MODELS HAVE
INCREASED MOISTURE WITH THE CURRENT MODEL RUN. ALSO HAVE INTRODUCED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE SECOND COLD
FRONT.

EXPECT A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
WILL GO FROM BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY TO ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC WHICH GIVES A NOD TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
SOLUTION FOR LATE WEEK AND INTO EASTER WEEKEND. WHILE A SIGNIFICANT
WARMUP IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK...IT MAY BE HAMPERED BY SHOWERS
ON LATE THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A PESKY DISTURBANCE COMES
OUT OF THE S STREAM BEFORE HEIGHTS CAN BUILD. THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL
BE FRIDAY EVENING. A DEEPENING LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AS A S/W TROF GOES NEGATIVE TILT. THE RESULTING STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND LLJ MAY PRODUCE A HEALTHY LINE OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WITH IT AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING
DAYS. THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEEKEND
IS SHAPING UP TO BE RATHER COOL...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WITH EVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. AFTER 03Z...CIG AND VISBY VALUES
LOWER AS FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE MVFR CONDITIONS
BYE THE END OF THE PERIOD FOR ALL SITES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME MVFR CLOUDS ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SUN 03/29/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KMC









000
FXUS61 KRLX 290523
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
123 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST THROUGH SUNDAY. SEVERAL
COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE UP COMING
WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...WINDS BECOMING CALM...AND
VERY LOW DEW POINTS SHOULD COMBINE FOR SOME GOOD RADIATION
CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...SOME SNOW ON THE GROUND IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS SHOULD ALSO HELP LOWER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. WILL MOVE
LOWS TOWARD THE LOWER END OF MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK ZONAL FLOW SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE THE FIRST COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MAINLY SOME SHOWERS WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX FOR
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE COLD FRONT NUMBER TWO APPROACHES
TUESDAY NIGHT. INCREASED POPS FOR COLD FRONT NUMBER ONE. NOT SURE
HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MODELS HAVE
INCREASED MOISTURE WITH THE CURRENT MODEL RUN. ALSO HAVE INTRODUCED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE SECOND COLD
FRONT.

EXPECT A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
WILL GO FROM BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY TO ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC WHICH GIVES A NOD TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
SOLUTION FOR LATE WEEK AND INTO EASTER WEEKEND. WHILE A SIGNIFICANT
WARMUP IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK...IT MAY BE HAMPERED BY SHOWERS
ON LATE THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A PESKY DISTURBANCE COMES
OUT OF THE S STREAM BEFORE HEIGHTS CAN BUILD. THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL
BE FRIDAY EVENING. A DEEPENING LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AS A S/W TROF GOES NEGATIVE TILT. THE RESULTING STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND LLJ MAY PRODUCE A HEALTHY LINE OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WITH IT AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING
DAYS. THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEEKEND
IS SHAPING UP TO BE RATHER COOL...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WITH EVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. AFTER 03Z...CIG AND VISBY VALUES
LOWER AS FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE MVFR CONDITIONS
BYE THE END OF THE PERIOD FOR ALL SITES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME MVFR CLOUDS ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SUN 03/29/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KMC









000
FXUS61 KRLX 290523
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
123 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST THROUGH SUNDAY. SEVERAL
COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE UP COMING
WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...WINDS BECOMING CALM...AND
VERY LOW DEW POINTS SHOULD COMBINE FOR SOME GOOD RADIATION
CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...SOME SNOW ON THE GROUND IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS SHOULD ALSO HELP LOWER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. WILL MOVE
LOWS TOWARD THE LOWER END OF MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK ZONAL FLOW SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE THE FIRST COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MAINLY SOME SHOWERS WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX FOR
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE COLD FRONT NUMBER TWO APPROACHES
TUESDAY NIGHT. INCREASED POPS FOR COLD FRONT NUMBER ONE. NOT SURE
HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MODELS HAVE
INCREASED MOISTURE WITH THE CURRENT MODEL RUN. ALSO HAVE INTRODUCED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE SECOND COLD
FRONT.

EXPECT A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
WILL GO FROM BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY TO ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC WHICH GIVES A NOD TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
SOLUTION FOR LATE WEEK AND INTO EASTER WEEKEND. WHILE A SIGNIFICANT
WARMUP IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK...IT MAY BE HAMPERED BY SHOWERS
ON LATE THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A PESKY DISTURBANCE COMES
OUT OF THE S STREAM BEFORE HEIGHTS CAN BUILD. THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL
BE FRIDAY EVENING. A DEEPENING LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AS A S/W TROF GOES NEGATIVE TILT. THE RESULTING STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND LLJ MAY PRODUCE A HEALTHY LINE OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WITH IT AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING
DAYS. THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEEKEND
IS SHAPING UP TO BE RATHER COOL...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WITH EVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. AFTER 03Z...CIG AND VISBY VALUES
LOWER AS FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE MVFR CONDITIONS
BYE THE END OF THE PERIOD FOR ALL SITES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME MVFR CLOUDS ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SUN 03/29/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KMC









000
FXUS61 KRLX 290523
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
123 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST THROUGH SUNDAY. SEVERAL
COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE UP COMING
WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...WINDS BECOMING CALM...AND
VERY LOW DEW POINTS SHOULD COMBINE FOR SOME GOOD RADIATION
CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...SOME SNOW ON THE GROUND IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS SHOULD ALSO HELP LOWER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. WILL MOVE
LOWS TOWARD THE LOWER END OF MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK ZONAL FLOW SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE THE FIRST COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MAINLY SOME SHOWERS WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX FOR
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE COLD FRONT NUMBER TWO APPROACHES
TUESDAY NIGHT. INCREASED POPS FOR COLD FRONT NUMBER ONE. NOT SURE
HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MODELS HAVE
INCREASED MOISTURE WITH THE CURRENT MODEL RUN. ALSO HAVE INTRODUCED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE SECOND COLD
FRONT.

EXPECT A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
WILL GO FROM BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY TO ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC WHICH GIVES A NOD TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
SOLUTION FOR LATE WEEK AND INTO EASTER WEEKEND. WHILE A SIGNIFICANT
WARMUP IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK...IT MAY BE HAMPERED BY SHOWERS
ON LATE THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A PESKY DISTURBANCE COMES
OUT OF THE S STREAM BEFORE HEIGHTS CAN BUILD. THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL
BE FRIDAY EVENING. A DEEPENING LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AS A S/W TROF GOES NEGATIVE TILT. THE RESULTING STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND LLJ MAY PRODUCE A HEALTHY LINE OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WITH IT AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING
DAYS. THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEEKEND
IS SHAPING UP TO BE RATHER COOL...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WITH EVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. AFTER 03Z...CIG AND VISBY VALUES
LOWER AS FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE MVFR CONDITIONS
BYE THE END OF THE PERIOD FOR ALL SITES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME MVFR CLOUDS ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SUN 03/29/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KMC









000
FXUS61 KRLX 282158
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
549 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
SEVERAL COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE UP
COMING WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...WINDS BECOMING CALM...AND
VERY LOW DEW POINTS SHOULD COMBINE FOR SOME GOOD RADIATION
CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...SOME SNOW ON THE GROUND IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS SHOULD ALSO HELP LOWER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. WILL MOVE
LOWS TOWARD THE LOWER END OF MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK ZONAL FLOW SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE THE FIRST COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MAINLY SOME SHOWERS WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX FOR
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE COLD FRONT NUMBER TWO APPROACHES
TUESDAY NIGHT. INCREASED POPS FOR COLD FRONT NUMBER ONE. NOT SURE
HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MODELS HAVE
INCREASED MOISTURE WITH THE CURRENT MODEL RUN. ALSO HAVE INTRODUCED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE SECOND COLD
FRONT.

EXPECT A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
WILL GO FROM BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY TO ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC WHICH GIVES A NOD TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
SOLUTION FOR LATE WEEK AND INTO EASTER WEEKEND. WHILE A SIGNIFICANT
WARMUP IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK...IT MAY BE HAMPERED BY SHOWERS
ON LATE THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A PESKY DISTURBANCE COMES
OUT OF THE S STREAM BEFORE HEIGHTS CAN BUILD. THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL
BE FRIDAY EVENING. A DEEPENING LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AS A S/W TROF GOES NEGATIVE TILT. THE RESULTING STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND LLJ MAY PRODUCE A HEALTHY LINE OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WITH IT AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING
DAYS. THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEEKEND
IS SHAPING UP TO BE RATHER COOL...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WITH EVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME MVFR CLOUDS ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...RPY










000
FXUS61 KRLX 282158
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
549 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
SEVERAL COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE UP
COMING WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...WINDS BECOMING CALM...AND
VERY LOW DEW POINTS SHOULD COMBINE FOR SOME GOOD RADIATION
CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...SOME SNOW ON THE GROUND IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS SHOULD ALSO HELP LOWER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. WILL MOVE
LOWS TOWARD THE LOWER END OF MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK ZONAL FLOW SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE THE FIRST COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MAINLY SOME SHOWERS WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX FOR
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE COLD FRONT NUMBER TWO APPROACHES
TUESDAY NIGHT. INCREASED POPS FOR COLD FRONT NUMBER ONE. NOT SURE
HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MODELS HAVE
INCREASED MOISTURE WITH THE CURRENT MODEL RUN. ALSO HAVE INTRODUCED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE SECOND COLD
FRONT.

EXPECT A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
WILL GO FROM BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY TO ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC WHICH GIVES A NOD TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
SOLUTION FOR LATE WEEK AND INTO EASTER WEEKEND. WHILE A SIGNIFICANT
WARMUP IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK...IT MAY BE HAMPERED BY SHOWERS
ON LATE THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A PESKY DISTURBANCE COMES
OUT OF THE S STREAM BEFORE HEIGHTS CAN BUILD. THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL
BE FRIDAY EVENING. A DEEPENING LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AS A S/W TROF GOES NEGATIVE TILT. THE RESULTING STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND LLJ MAY PRODUCE A HEALTHY LINE OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WITH IT AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING
DAYS. THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEEKEND
IS SHAPING UP TO BE RATHER COOL...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WITH EVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME MVFR CLOUDS ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...RPY











000
FXUS61 KRLX 282158
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
549 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
SEVERAL COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE UP
COMING WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...WINDS BECOMING CALM...AND
VERY LOW DEW POINTS SHOULD COMBINE FOR SOME GOOD RADIATION
CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...SOME SNOW ON THE GROUND IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS SHOULD ALSO HELP LOWER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. WILL MOVE
LOWS TOWARD THE LOWER END OF MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK ZONAL FLOW SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE THE FIRST COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MAINLY SOME SHOWERS WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX FOR
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE COLD FRONT NUMBER TWO APPROACHES
TUESDAY NIGHT. INCREASED POPS FOR COLD FRONT NUMBER ONE. NOT SURE
HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MODELS HAVE
INCREASED MOISTURE WITH THE CURRENT MODEL RUN. ALSO HAVE INTRODUCED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE SECOND COLD
FRONT.

EXPECT A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
WILL GO FROM BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY TO ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC WHICH GIVES A NOD TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
SOLUTION FOR LATE WEEK AND INTO EASTER WEEKEND. WHILE A SIGNIFICANT
WARMUP IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK...IT MAY BE HAMPERED BY SHOWERS
ON LATE THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A PESKY DISTURBANCE COMES
OUT OF THE S STREAM BEFORE HEIGHTS CAN BUILD. THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL
BE FRIDAY EVENING. A DEEPENING LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AS A S/W TROF GOES NEGATIVE TILT. THE RESULTING STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND LLJ MAY PRODUCE A HEALTHY LINE OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WITH IT AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING
DAYS. THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEEKEND
IS SHAPING UP TO BE RATHER COOL...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WITH EVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME MVFR CLOUDS ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...RPY











000
FXUS61 KRLX 281923
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
249 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
SEVERAL COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE UP
COMING WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST TO PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH SUNDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW HAS BROUGHT A DRY AND COLD
AIRMASS TO THE REGION. WITH CLEARING AND NEAR CALM WINDS
TONIGHT...EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO DROP TEMPERATURES EVEN
FURTHER...TO NEAR RECORD AT FEW PLACES.

SOME PLACES WHERE LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE EXPECTED ARE AT...

     FCST    RECORD   DATE
BKW   15       17     1966
CRW   19       22     1966

GENERALLY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS...WITH
FEW LOCATIONS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. WENT CLOSER TO THE ALL BLEND SOLUTIONS FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK ZONAL FLOW SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE THE FIRST COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MAINLY SOME SHOWERS WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX FOR
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE COLD FRONT NUMBER TWO APPROACHES
TUESDAY NIGHT. INCREASED POPS FOR COLD FRONT NUMBER ONE. NOT SURE
HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MODELS HAVE
INCREASED MOISTURE WITH THE CURRENT MODEL RUN. ALSO HAVE INTRODUCED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE SECOND COLD
FRONT.

EXPECT A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
WILL GO FROM BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY TO ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC WHICH GIVES A NOD TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
SOLUTION FOR LATE WEEK AND INTO EASTER WEEKEND. WHILE A SIGNIFICANT
WARMUP IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK...IT MAY BE HAMPERED BY SHOWERS
ON LATE THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A PESKY DISTURBANCE COMES
OUT OF THE S STREAM BEFORE HEIGHTS CAN BUILD. THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL
BE FRIDAY EVENING. A DEEPENING LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AS A S/W TROF GOES NEGATIVE TILT. THE RESULTING STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND LLJ MAY PRODUCE A HEALTHY LINE OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WITH IT AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING
DAYS. THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEEKEND
IS SHAPING UP TO BE RATHER COOL...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WITH EVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. LOW DIURNAL CU WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST BEFORE DISSIPATING BY 22Z. ISOLATED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS ENDING
THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TO EAST...PROVIDING CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT. CLOUDS GRADUALLY ERODING AND LIFTING IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...AND CALM AT
MOST SITES OVERNIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSEN UP. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ











000
FXUS61 KRLX 281923
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
249 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
SEVERAL COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE UP
COMING WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST TO PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH SUNDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW HAS BROUGHT A DRY AND COLD
AIRMASS TO THE REGION. WITH CLEARING AND NEAR CALM WINDS
TONIGHT...EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO DROP TEMPERATURES EVEN
FURTHER...TO NEAR RECORD AT FEW PLACES.

SOME PLACES WHERE LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE EXPECTED ARE AT...

     FCST    RECORD   DATE
BKW   15       17     1966
CRW   19       22     1966

GENERALLY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS...WITH
FEW LOCATIONS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. WENT CLOSER TO THE ALL BLEND SOLUTIONS FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK ZONAL FLOW SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE THE FIRST COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MAINLY SOME SHOWERS WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX FOR
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE COLD FRONT NUMBER TWO APPROACHES
TUESDAY NIGHT. INCREASED POPS FOR COLD FRONT NUMBER ONE. NOT SURE
HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MODELS HAVE
INCREASED MOISTURE WITH THE CURRENT MODEL RUN. ALSO HAVE INTRODUCED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE SECOND COLD
FRONT.

EXPECT A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
WILL GO FROM BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY TO ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC WHICH GIVES A NOD TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
SOLUTION FOR LATE WEEK AND INTO EASTER WEEKEND. WHILE A SIGNIFICANT
WARMUP IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK...IT MAY BE HAMPERED BY SHOWERS
ON LATE THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A PESKY DISTURBANCE COMES
OUT OF THE S STREAM BEFORE HEIGHTS CAN BUILD. THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL
BE FRIDAY EVENING. A DEEPENING LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AS A S/W TROF GOES NEGATIVE TILT. THE RESULTING STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND LLJ MAY PRODUCE A HEALTHY LINE OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WITH IT AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING
DAYS. THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEEKEND
IS SHAPING UP TO BE RATHER COOL...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WITH EVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. LOW DIURNAL CU WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST BEFORE DISSIPATING BY 22Z. ISOLATED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS ENDING
THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TO EAST...PROVIDING CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT. CLOUDS GRADUALLY ERODING AND LIFTING IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...AND CALM AT
MOST SITES OVERNIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSEN UP. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ












000
FXUS61 KRLX 281923
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
249 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
SEVERAL COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE UP
COMING WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST TO PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH SUNDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW HAS BROUGHT A DRY AND COLD
AIRMASS TO THE REGION. WITH CLEARING AND NEAR CALM WINDS
TONIGHT...EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO DROP TEMPERATURES EVEN
FURTHER...TO NEAR RECORD AT FEW PLACES.

SOME PLACES WHERE LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE EXPECTED ARE AT...

     FCST    RECORD   DATE
BKW   15       17     1966
CRW   19       22     1966

GENERALLY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS...WITH
FEW LOCATIONS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. WENT CLOSER TO THE ALL BLEND SOLUTIONS FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK ZONAL FLOW SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE THE FIRST COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MAINLY SOME SHOWERS WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX FOR
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE COLD FRONT NUMBER TWO APPROACHES
TUESDAY NIGHT. INCREASED POPS FOR COLD FRONT NUMBER ONE. NOT SURE
HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MODELS HAVE
INCREASED MOISTURE WITH THE CURRENT MODEL RUN. ALSO HAVE INTRODUCED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE SECOND COLD
FRONT.

EXPECT A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
WILL GO FROM BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY TO ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC WHICH GIVES A NOD TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
SOLUTION FOR LATE WEEK AND INTO EASTER WEEKEND. WHILE A SIGNIFICANT
WARMUP IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK...IT MAY BE HAMPERED BY SHOWERS
ON LATE THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A PESKY DISTURBANCE COMES
OUT OF THE S STREAM BEFORE HEIGHTS CAN BUILD. THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL
BE FRIDAY EVENING. A DEEPENING LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AS A S/W TROF GOES NEGATIVE TILT. THE RESULTING STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND LLJ MAY PRODUCE A HEALTHY LINE OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WITH IT AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING
DAYS. THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEEKEND
IS SHAPING UP TO BE RATHER COOL...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WITH EVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. LOW DIURNAL CU WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST BEFORE DISSIPATING BY 22Z. ISOLATED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS ENDING
THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TO EAST...PROVIDING CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT. CLOUDS GRADUALLY ERODING AND LIFTING IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...AND CALM AT
MOST SITES OVERNIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSEN UP. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ











000
FXUS61 KRLX 281923
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
249 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
SEVERAL COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE UP
COMING WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST TO PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH SUNDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW HAS BROUGHT A DRY AND COLD
AIRMASS TO THE REGION. WITH CLEARING AND NEAR CALM WINDS
TONIGHT...EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO DROP TEMPERATURES EVEN
FURTHER...TO NEAR RECORD AT FEW PLACES.

SOME PLACES WHERE LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE EXPECTED ARE AT...

     FCST    RECORD   DATE
BKW   15       17     1966
CRW   19       22     1966

GENERALLY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS...WITH
FEW LOCATIONS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. WENT CLOSER TO THE ALL BLEND SOLUTIONS FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK ZONAL FLOW SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE THE FIRST COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MAINLY SOME SHOWERS WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX FOR
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE COLD FRONT NUMBER TWO APPROACHES
TUESDAY NIGHT. INCREASED POPS FOR COLD FRONT NUMBER ONE. NOT SURE
HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MODELS HAVE
INCREASED MOISTURE WITH THE CURRENT MODEL RUN. ALSO HAVE INTRODUCED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE SECOND COLD
FRONT.

EXPECT A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
WILL GO FROM BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY TO ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC WHICH GIVES A NOD TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
SOLUTION FOR LATE WEEK AND INTO EASTER WEEKEND. WHILE A SIGNIFICANT
WARMUP IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK...IT MAY BE HAMPERED BY SHOWERS
ON LATE THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A PESKY DISTURBANCE COMES
OUT OF THE S STREAM BEFORE HEIGHTS CAN BUILD. THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL
BE FRIDAY EVENING. A DEEPENING LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AS A S/W TROF GOES NEGATIVE TILT. THE RESULTING STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND LLJ MAY PRODUCE A HEALTHY LINE OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WITH IT AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING
DAYS. THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEEKEND
IS SHAPING UP TO BE RATHER COOL...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WITH EVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. LOW DIURNAL CU WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST BEFORE DISSIPATING BY 22Z. ISOLATED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS ENDING
THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TO EAST...PROVIDING CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT. CLOUDS GRADUALLY ERODING AND LIFTING IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...AND CALM AT
MOST SITES OVERNIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSEN UP. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ












000
FXUS61 KRLX 281849
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
249 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
SEVERAL COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE UP
COMING WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST TO PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH SUNDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW HAS BROUGHT A DRY AND COLD
AIRMASS TO THE REGION. WITH CLEARING AND NEAR CALM WINDS
TONIGHT...EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO DROP TEMPERATURES EVEN
FURTHER...TO NEAR RECORD AT FEW PLACES.

SOME PLACES WHERE LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE EXPECTED ARE AT...

     FCST    RECORD   DATE
BKW   15       17     1966
CRW   19       22     1966

GENERALLY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS...WITH
FEW LOCATIONS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. WENT CLOSER TO THE ALL BLEND SOLUTIONS FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK ZONAL FLOW SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE THE FIRST COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MAINLY SOME SHOWERS WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX FOR
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE COLD FRONT NUMBER TWO APPROACHES TUESDAY
NIGHT. INCREASED POPS FOR COLD FRONT NUMBER ONE. NOT SURE HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MODELS HAVE INCREASED
MOISTURE WITH THE CURRENT MODEL RUN. ALSO HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE SECOND COLD
FRONT.

EXPECT A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
WILL GO FROM BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY TO ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GIVEN SOME DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP LATE WEEK
REGARDING HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN GETS. AFTER A WARMING TREND INTO
MIDWEEK...STILL LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED LATE WEEK...WITH THE WEEKEND
SHAPING UP TO BE CHILLY ONCE AGAIN. SO THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE ROLLS
ON.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. LOW DIURNAL CU WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST BEFORE DISSIPATING BY 22Z. ISOLATED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS ENDING
THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TO EAST...PROVIDING CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT. CLOUDS GRADUALLY ERODING AND LIFTING IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...AND CALM AT
MOST SITES OVERNIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSEN UP. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 281849
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
249 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
SEVERAL COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE UP
COMING WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST TO PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH SUNDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW HAS BROUGHT A DRY AND COLD
AIRMASS TO THE REGION. WITH CLEARING AND NEAR CALM WINDS
TONIGHT...EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO DROP TEMPERATURES EVEN
FURTHER...TO NEAR RECORD AT FEW PLACES.

SOME PLACES WHERE LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE EXPECTED ARE AT...

     FCST    RECORD   DATE
BKW   15       17     1966
CRW   19       22     1966

GENERALLY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS...WITH
FEW LOCATIONS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. WENT CLOSER TO THE ALL BLEND SOLUTIONS FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK ZONAL FLOW SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE THE FIRST COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MAINLY SOME SHOWERS WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX FOR
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE COLD FRONT NUMBER TWO APPROACHES TUESDAY
NIGHT. INCREASED POPS FOR COLD FRONT NUMBER ONE. NOT SURE HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MODELS HAVE INCREASED
MOISTURE WITH THE CURRENT MODEL RUN. ALSO HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE SECOND COLD
FRONT.

EXPECT A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
WILL GO FROM BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY TO ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GIVEN SOME DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP LATE WEEK
REGARDING HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN GETS. AFTER A WARMING TREND INTO
MIDWEEK...STILL LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED LATE WEEK...WITH THE WEEKEND
SHAPING UP TO BE CHILLY ONCE AGAIN. SO THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE ROLLS
ON.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. LOW DIURNAL CU WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST BEFORE DISSIPATING BY 22Z. ISOLATED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS ENDING
THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TO EAST...PROVIDING CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT. CLOUDS GRADUALLY ERODING AND LIFTING IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...AND CALM AT
MOST SITES OVERNIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSEN UP. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ








000
FXUS61 KRLX 281849
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
249 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
SEVERAL COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE UP
COMING WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST TO PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH SUNDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW HAS BROUGHT A DRY AND COLD
AIRMASS TO THE REGION. WITH CLEARING AND NEAR CALM WINDS
TONIGHT...EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO DROP TEMPERATURES EVEN
FURTHER...TO NEAR RECORD AT FEW PLACES.

SOME PLACES WHERE LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE EXPECTED ARE AT...

     FCST    RECORD   DATE
BKW   15       17     1966
CRW   19       22     1966

GENERALLY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS...WITH
FEW LOCATIONS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. WENT CLOSER TO THE ALL BLEND SOLUTIONS FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK ZONAL FLOW SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE THE FIRST COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MAINLY SOME SHOWERS WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX FOR
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE COLD FRONT NUMBER TWO APPROACHES TUESDAY
NIGHT. INCREASED POPS FOR COLD FRONT NUMBER ONE. NOT SURE HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MODELS HAVE INCREASED
MOISTURE WITH THE CURRENT MODEL RUN. ALSO HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE SECOND COLD
FRONT.

EXPECT A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
WILL GO FROM BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY TO ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GIVEN SOME DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP LATE WEEK
REGARDING HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN GETS. AFTER A WARMING TREND INTO
MIDWEEK...STILL LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED LATE WEEK...WITH THE WEEKEND
SHAPING UP TO BE CHILLY ONCE AGAIN. SO THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE ROLLS
ON.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. LOW DIURNAL CU WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST BEFORE DISSIPATING BY 22Z. ISOLATED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS ENDING
THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TO EAST...PROVIDING CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT. CLOUDS GRADUALLY ERODING AND LIFTING IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...AND CALM AT
MOST SITES OVERNIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSEN UP. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ








000
FXUS61 KRLX 281849
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
249 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
SEVERAL COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE UP
COMING WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST TO PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH SUNDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW HAS BROUGHT A DRY AND COLD
AIRMASS TO THE REGION. WITH CLEARING AND NEAR CALM WINDS
TONIGHT...EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO DROP TEMPERATURES EVEN
FURTHER...TO NEAR RECORD AT FEW PLACES.

SOME PLACES WHERE LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE EXPECTED ARE AT...

     FCST    RECORD   DATE
BKW   15       17     1966
CRW   19       22     1966

GENERALLY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS...WITH
FEW LOCATIONS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. WENT CLOSER TO THE ALL BLEND SOLUTIONS FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK ZONAL FLOW SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE THE FIRST COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MAINLY SOME SHOWERS WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX FOR
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE COLD FRONT NUMBER TWO APPROACHES TUESDAY
NIGHT. INCREASED POPS FOR COLD FRONT NUMBER ONE. NOT SURE HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MODELS HAVE INCREASED
MOISTURE WITH THE CURRENT MODEL RUN. ALSO HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE SECOND COLD
FRONT.

EXPECT A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
WILL GO FROM BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY TO ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GIVEN SOME DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP LATE WEEK
REGARDING HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN GETS. AFTER A WARMING TREND INTO
MIDWEEK...STILL LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED LATE WEEK...WITH THE WEEKEND
SHAPING UP TO BE CHILLY ONCE AGAIN. SO THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE ROLLS
ON.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. LOW DIURNAL CU WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST BEFORE DISSIPATING BY 22Z. ISOLATED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS ENDING
THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TO EAST...PROVIDING CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT. CLOUDS GRADUALLY ERODING AND LIFTING IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...AND CALM AT
MOST SITES OVERNIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSEN UP. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 281821
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
221 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST TO PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH SUNDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW HAS BROUGHT A DRY AND COLD
AIRMASS TO THE REGION. WITH CLEARING AND NEAR CALM WINDS
TONIGHT...EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO DROP TEMPERATURES EVEN
FURTHER...TO NEAR RECORD AT FEW PLACES.

SOME PLACES WHERE LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE EXPECTED ARE AT...

     FCST    RECORD   DATE
BKW   15       17     1966
CRW   19       22     1966

GENERALLY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS...WITH
FEW LOCATIONS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. WENT CLOSER TO THE ALL BLEND SOLUTIONS FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AMPLIFIES FROM A DEEP
EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH AND WESTERN UPPER RIDGE TO A MORE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. WEAK AND MOISTURE LACKING FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SPECIFICALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER OR TWO. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL
BE A WARMING TREND FROM BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS AIRMASSES BECOME
MORE PACIFIC IN ORIGIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GIVEN SOME DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP LATE WEEK
REGARDING HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN GETS. AFTER A WARMING TREND INTO
MIDWEEK...STILL LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED LATE WEEK...WITH THE WEEKEND
SHAPING UP TO BE CHILLY ONCE AGAIN. SO THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE ROLLS
ON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. LOW DIURNAL CU WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST BEFORE DISSIPATING BY 22Z. ISOLATED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS ENDING
THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TO EAST...PROVIDING CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT. CLOUDS GRADUALLY ERODING AND LIFTING IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...AND CALM AT
MOST SITES OVERNIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSEN UP. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ








000
FXUS61 KRLX 281821
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
221 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST TO PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH SUNDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW HAS BROUGHT A DRY AND COLD
AIRMASS TO THE REGION. WITH CLEARING AND NEAR CALM WINDS
TONIGHT...EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO DROP TEMPERATURES EVEN
FURTHER...TO NEAR RECORD AT FEW PLACES.

SOME PLACES WHERE LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE EXPECTED ARE AT...

     FCST    RECORD   DATE
BKW   15       17     1966
CRW   19       22     1966

GENERALLY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS...WITH
FEW LOCATIONS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. WENT CLOSER TO THE ALL BLEND SOLUTIONS FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AMPLIFIES FROM A DEEP
EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH AND WESTERN UPPER RIDGE TO A MORE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. WEAK AND MOISTURE LACKING FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SPECIFICALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER OR TWO. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL
BE A WARMING TREND FROM BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS AIRMASSES BECOME
MORE PACIFIC IN ORIGIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GIVEN SOME DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP LATE WEEK
REGARDING HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN GETS. AFTER A WARMING TREND INTO
MIDWEEK...STILL LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED LATE WEEK...WITH THE WEEKEND
SHAPING UP TO BE CHILLY ONCE AGAIN. SO THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE ROLLS
ON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. LOW DIURNAL CU WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST BEFORE DISSIPATING BY 22Z. ISOLATED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS ENDING
THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TO EAST...PROVIDING CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT. CLOUDS GRADUALLY ERODING AND LIFTING IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...AND CALM AT
MOST SITES OVERNIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSEN UP. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 281821
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
221 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST TO PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH SUNDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW HAS BROUGHT A DRY AND COLD
AIRMASS TO THE REGION. WITH CLEARING AND NEAR CALM WINDS
TONIGHT...EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO DROP TEMPERATURES EVEN
FURTHER...TO NEAR RECORD AT FEW PLACES.

SOME PLACES WHERE LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE EXPECTED ARE AT...

     FCST    RECORD   DATE
BKW   15       17     1966
CRW   19       22     1966

GENERALLY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS...WITH
FEW LOCATIONS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. WENT CLOSER TO THE ALL BLEND SOLUTIONS FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AMPLIFIES FROM A DEEP
EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH AND WESTERN UPPER RIDGE TO A MORE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. WEAK AND MOISTURE LACKING FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SPECIFICALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER OR TWO. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL
BE A WARMING TREND FROM BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS AIRMASSES BECOME
MORE PACIFIC IN ORIGIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GIVEN SOME DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP LATE WEEK
REGARDING HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN GETS. AFTER A WARMING TREND INTO
MIDWEEK...STILL LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED LATE WEEK...WITH THE WEEKEND
SHAPING UP TO BE CHILLY ONCE AGAIN. SO THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE ROLLS
ON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. LOW DIURNAL CU WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST BEFORE DISSIPATING BY 22Z. ISOLATED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS ENDING
THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TO EAST...PROVIDING CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT. CLOUDS GRADUALLY ERODING AND LIFTING IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...AND CALM AT
MOST SITES OVERNIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSEN UP. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ








000
FXUS61 KRLX 281821
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
221 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST TO PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH SUNDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW HAS BROUGHT A DRY AND COLD
AIRMASS TO THE REGION. WITH CLEARING AND NEAR CALM WINDS
TONIGHT...EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO DROP TEMPERATURES EVEN
FURTHER...TO NEAR RECORD AT FEW PLACES.

SOME PLACES WHERE LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE EXPECTED ARE AT...

     FCST    RECORD   DATE
BKW   15       17     1966
CRW   19       22     1966

GENERALLY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS...WITH
FEW LOCATIONS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. WENT CLOSER TO THE ALL BLEND SOLUTIONS FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AMPLIFIES FROM A DEEP
EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH AND WESTERN UPPER RIDGE TO A MORE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. WEAK AND MOISTURE LACKING FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SPECIFICALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER OR TWO. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL
BE A WARMING TREND FROM BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS AIRMASSES BECOME
MORE PACIFIC IN ORIGIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GIVEN SOME DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP LATE WEEK
REGARDING HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN GETS. AFTER A WARMING TREND INTO
MIDWEEK...STILL LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED LATE WEEK...WITH THE WEEKEND
SHAPING UP TO BE CHILLY ONCE AGAIN. SO THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE ROLLS
ON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. LOW DIURNAL CU WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST BEFORE DISSIPATING BY 22Z. ISOLATED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS ENDING
THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TO EAST...PROVIDING CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT. CLOUDS GRADUALLY ERODING AND LIFTING IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...AND CALM AT
MOST SITES OVERNIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSEN UP. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ








000
FXUS61 KRLX 281821
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
221 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST TO PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH SUNDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW HAS BROUGHT A DRY AND COLD
AIRMASS TO THE REGION. WITH CLEARING AND NEAR CALM WINDS
TONIGHT...EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO DROP TEMPERATURES EVEN
FURTHER...TO NEAR RECORD AT FEW PLACES.

SOME PLACES WHERE LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE EXPECTED ARE AT...

     FCST    RECORD   DATE
BKW   15       17     1966
CRW   19       22     1966

GENERALLY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS...WITH
FEW LOCATIONS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. WENT CLOSER TO THE ALL BLEND SOLUTIONS FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AMPLIFIES FROM A DEEP
EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH AND WESTERN UPPER RIDGE TO A MORE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. WEAK AND MOISTURE LACKING FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SPECIFICALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER OR TWO. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL
BE A WARMING TREND FROM BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS AIRMASSES BECOME
MORE PACIFIC IN ORIGIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GIVEN SOME DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP LATE WEEK
REGARDING HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN GETS. AFTER A WARMING TREND INTO
MIDWEEK...STILL LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED LATE WEEK...WITH THE WEEKEND
SHAPING UP TO BE CHILLY ONCE AGAIN. SO THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE ROLLS
ON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. LOW DIURNAL CU WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST BEFORE DISSIPATING BY 22Z. ISOLATED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS ENDING
THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TO EAST...PROVIDING CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT. CLOUDS GRADUALLY ERODING AND LIFTING IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...AND CALM AT
MOST SITES OVERNIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSEN UP. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ








000
FXUS61 KRLX 281821
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
221 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST TO PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH SUNDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW HAS BROUGHT A DRY AND COLD
AIRMASS TO THE REGION. WITH CLEARING AND NEAR CALM WINDS
TONIGHT...EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO DROP TEMPERATURES EVEN
FURTHER...TO NEAR RECORD AT FEW PLACES.

SOME PLACES WHERE LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE EXPECTED ARE AT...

     FCST    RECORD   DATE
BKW   15       17     1966
CRW   19       22     1966

GENERALLY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS...WITH
FEW LOCATIONS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. WENT CLOSER TO THE ALL BLEND SOLUTIONS FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AMPLIFIES FROM A DEEP
EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH AND WESTERN UPPER RIDGE TO A MORE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. WEAK AND MOISTURE LACKING FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SPECIFICALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER OR TWO. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL
BE A WARMING TREND FROM BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS AIRMASSES BECOME
MORE PACIFIC IN ORIGIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GIVEN SOME DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP LATE WEEK
REGARDING HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN GETS. AFTER A WARMING TREND INTO
MIDWEEK...STILL LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED LATE WEEK...WITH THE WEEKEND
SHAPING UP TO BE CHILLY ONCE AGAIN. SO THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE ROLLS
ON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. LOW DIURNAL CU WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST BEFORE DISSIPATING BY 22Z. ISOLATED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS ENDING
THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TO EAST...PROVIDING CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT. CLOUDS GRADUALLY ERODING AND LIFTING IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...AND CALM AT
MOST SITES OVERNIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSEN UP. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ








000
FXUS61 KRLX 281718
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
118 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS INTO LATE THIS AFTERNOON UNDER A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED HOURLY TEMPERATURES PER LATEST SFC OBS. RADAR IMAGES
INDICATE ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS COMING TO AN END EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW STRATO CU MORE ABUNDANT ALONG
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE A RENEGADE ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER COULD
BE POSSIBLE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN...AS 5H TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...ESPECIALLY AT THE LOW
LEVELS...WILL UNDERGO A DRYING TREND. CLEAR SKIES WILL SETTLE IN
TONIGHT WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER LIGHT FLOW. FOR
TEMPS...WILL GO WITH A COMBO OF INHERITED FORECAST WITH BC BLEND.
HOWEVER...WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS LOWER FOR MOST AREAS FOR OVERNIGHT
MINS...AS MET AND MAV GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING LOWER OVER THE
PAST FEW RUNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AMPLIFIES FROM A DEEP
EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH AND WESTERN UPPER RIDGE TO A MORE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. WEAK AND MOISTURE LACKING FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SPECIFICALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER OR TWO. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL
BE A WARMING TREND FROM BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS AIRMASSES BECOME
MORE PACIFIC IN ORIGIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GIVEN SOME DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP LATE WEEK
REGARDING HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN GETS. AFTER A WARMING TREND INTO
MIDWEEK...STILL LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED LATE WEEK...WITH THE WEEKEND
SHAPING UP TO BE CHILLY ONCE AGAIN. SO THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE ROLLS
ON.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. LOW STRATO CU WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST BEFORE DISSIPATING BY 22Z. ISOLATED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS ENDING
THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TO EAST...PROVIDING CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT. CLOUDS GRADUALLY ERODING AND LIFTING IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...AND CALM AT
MOST SITES OVERNIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSEN UP. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...KMC/ARJ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ








000
FXUS61 KRLX 281718
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
118 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS INTO LATE THIS AFTERNOON UNDER A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED HOURLY TEMPERATURES PER LATEST SFC OBS. RADAR IMAGES
INDICATE ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS COMING TO AN END EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW STRATO CU MORE ABUNDANT ALONG
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE A RENEGADE ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER COULD
BE POSSIBLE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN...AS 5H TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...ESPECIALLY AT THE LOW
LEVELS...WILL UNDERGO A DRYING TREND. CLEAR SKIES WILL SETTLE IN
TONIGHT WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER LIGHT FLOW. FOR
TEMPS...WILL GO WITH A COMBO OF INHERITED FORECAST WITH BC BLEND.
HOWEVER...WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS LOWER FOR MOST AREAS FOR OVERNIGHT
MINS...AS MET AND MAV GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING LOWER OVER THE
PAST FEW RUNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AMPLIFIES FROM A DEEP
EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH AND WESTERN UPPER RIDGE TO A MORE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. WEAK AND MOISTURE LACKING FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SPECIFICALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER OR TWO. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL
BE A WARMING TREND FROM BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS AIRMASSES BECOME
MORE PACIFIC IN ORIGIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GIVEN SOME DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP LATE WEEK
REGARDING HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN GETS. AFTER A WARMING TREND INTO
MIDWEEK...STILL LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED LATE WEEK...WITH THE WEEKEND
SHAPING UP TO BE CHILLY ONCE AGAIN. SO THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE ROLLS
ON.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. LOW STRATO CU WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST BEFORE DISSIPATING BY 22Z. ISOLATED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS ENDING
THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TO EAST...PROVIDING CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT. CLOUDS GRADUALLY ERODING AND LIFTING IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...AND CALM AT
MOST SITES OVERNIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSEN UP. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...KMC/ARJ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 281718
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
118 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS INTO LATE THIS AFTERNOON UNDER A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED HOURLY TEMPERATURES PER LATEST SFC OBS. RADAR IMAGES
INDICATE ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS COMING TO AN END EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW STRATO CU MORE ABUNDANT ALONG
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE A RENEGADE ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER COULD
BE POSSIBLE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN...AS 5H TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...ESPECIALLY AT THE LOW
LEVELS...WILL UNDERGO A DRYING TREND. CLEAR SKIES WILL SETTLE IN
TONIGHT WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER LIGHT FLOW. FOR
TEMPS...WILL GO WITH A COMBO OF INHERITED FORECAST WITH BC BLEND.
HOWEVER...WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS LOWER FOR MOST AREAS FOR OVERNIGHT
MINS...AS MET AND MAV GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING LOWER OVER THE
PAST FEW RUNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AMPLIFIES FROM A DEEP
EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH AND WESTERN UPPER RIDGE TO A MORE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. WEAK AND MOISTURE LACKING FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SPECIFICALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER OR TWO. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL
BE A WARMING TREND FROM BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS AIRMASSES BECOME
MORE PACIFIC IN ORIGIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GIVEN SOME DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP LATE WEEK
REGARDING HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN GETS. AFTER A WARMING TREND INTO
MIDWEEK...STILL LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED LATE WEEK...WITH THE WEEKEND
SHAPING UP TO BE CHILLY ONCE AGAIN. SO THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE ROLLS
ON.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. LOW STRATO CU WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST BEFORE DISSIPATING BY 22Z. ISOLATED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS ENDING
THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TO EAST...PROVIDING CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT. CLOUDS GRADUALLY ERODING AND LIFTING IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...AND CALM AT
MOST SITES OVERNIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSEN UP. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...KMC/ARJ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 281718
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
118 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS INTO LATE THIS AFTERNOON UNDER A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED HOURLY TEMPERATURES PER LATEST SFC OBS. RADAR IMAGES
INDICATE ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS COMING TO AN END EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW STRATO CU MORE ABUNDANT ALONG
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE A RENEGADE ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER COULD
BE POSSIBLE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN...AS 5H TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...ESPECIALLY AT THE LOW
LEVELS...WILL UNDERGO A DRYING TREND. CLEAR SKIES WILL SETTLE IN
TONIGHT WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER LIGHT FLOW. FOR
TEMPS...WILL GO WITH A COMBO OF INHERITED FORECAST WITH BC BLEND.
HOWEVER...WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS LOWER FOR MOST AREAS FOR OVERNIGHT
MINS...AS MET AND MAV GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING LOWER OVER THE
PAST FEW RUNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AMPLIFIES FROM A DEEP
EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH AND WESTERN UPPER RIDGE TO A MORE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. WEAK AND MOISTURE LACKING FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SPECIFICALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER OR TWO. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL
BE A WARMING TREND FROM BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS AIRMASSES BECOME
MORE PACIFIC IN ORIGIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GIVEN SOME DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP LATE WEEK
REGARDING HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN GETS. AFTER A WARMING TREND INTO
MIDWEEK...STILL LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED LATE WEEK...WITH THE WEEKEND
SHAPING UP TO BE CHILLY ONCE AGAIN. SO THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE ROLLS
ON.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. LOW STRATO CU WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST BEFORE DISSIPATING BY 22Z. ISOLATED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS ENDING
THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TO EAST...PROVIDING CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT. CLOUDS GRADUALLY ERODING AND LIFTING IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...AND CALM AT
MOST SITES OVERNIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSEN UP. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...KMC/ARJ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 281718
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
118 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS INTO LATE THIS AFTERNOON UNDER A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED HOURLY TEMPERATURES PER LATEST SFC OBS. RADAR IMAGES
INDICATE ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS COMING TO AN END EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW STRATO CU MORE ABUNDANT ALONG
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE A RENEGADE ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER COULD
BE POSSIBLE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN...AS 5H TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...ESPECIALLY AT THE LOW
LEVELS...WILL UNDERGO A DRYING TREND. CLEAR SKIES WILL SETTLE IN
TONIGHT WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER LIGHT FLOW. FOR
TEMPS...WILL GO WITH A COMBO OF INHERITED FORECAST WITH BC BLEND.
HOWEVER...WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS LOWER FOR MOST AREAS FOR OVERNIGHT
MINS...AS MET AND MAV GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING LOWER OVER THE
PAST FEW RUNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AMPLIFIES FROM A DEEP
EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH AND WESTERN UPPER RIDGE TO A MORE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. WEAK AND MOISTURE LACKING FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SPECIFICALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER OR TWO. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL
BE A WARMING TREND FROM BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS AIRMASSES BECOME
MORE PACIFIC IN ORIGIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GIVEN SOME DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP LATE WEEK
REGARDING HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN GETS. AFTER A WARMING TREND INTO
MIDWEEK...STILL LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED LATE WEEK...WITH THE WEEKEND
SHAPING UP TO BE CHILLY ONCE AGAIN. SO THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE ROLLS
ON.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. LOW STRATO CU WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST BEFORE DISSIPATING BY 22Z. ISOLATED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS ENDING
THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TO EAST...PROVIDING CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT. CLOUDS GRADUALLY ERODING AND LIFTING IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...AND CALM AT
MOST SITES OVERNIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSEN UP. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...KMC/ARJ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 281718
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
118 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS INTO LATE THIS AFTERNOON UNDER A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED HOURLY TEMPERATURES PER LATEST SFC OBS. RADAR IMAGES
INDICATE ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS COMING TO AN END EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW STRATO CU MORE ABUNDANT ALONG
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE A RENEGADE ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER COULD
BE POSSIBLE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN...AS 5H TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...ESPECIALLY AT THE LOW
LEVELS...WILL UNDERGO A DRYING TREND. CLEAR SKIES WILL SETTLE IN
TONIGHT WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER LIGHT FLOW. FOR
TEMPS...WILL GO WITH A COMBO OF INHERITED FORECAST WITH BC BLEND.
HOWEVER...WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS LOWER FOR MOST AREAS FOR OVERNIGHT
MINS...AS MET AND MAV GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING LOWER OVER THE
PAST FEW RUNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AMPLIFIES FROM A DEEP
EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH AND WESTERN UPPER RIDGE TO A MORE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. WEAK AND MOISTURE LACKING FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SPECIFICALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER OR TWO. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL
BE A WARMING TREND FROM BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS AIRMASSES BECOME
MORE PACIFIC IN ORIGIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GIVEN SOME DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP LATE WEEK
REGARDING HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN GETS. AFTER A WARMING TREND INTO
MIDWEEK...STILL LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED LATE WEEK...WITH THE WEEKEND
SHAPING UP TO BE CHILLY ONCE AGAIN. SO THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE ROLLS
ON.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. LOW STRATO CU WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST BEFORE DISSIPATING BY 22Z. ISOLATED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS ENDING
THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TO EAST...PROVIDING CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT. CLOUDS GRADUALLY ERODING AND LIFTING IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...AND CALM AT
MOST SITES OVERNIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSEN UP. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...KMC/ARJ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ








000
FXUS61 KRLX 281310
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
910 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY UNDER A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL WV PER RADAR
IMAGES SHOWING A BURST OF SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING KANAWHA COUNTY.
THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST ALONG I64 CORRIDOR.
EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO END AROUND 10 AM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN...AS 5H TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...ESPECIALLY AT THE LOW
LEVELS...WILL UNDERGO A DRYING TREND. CLEAR SKIES WILL SETTLE IN
TONIGHT WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER LIGHT FLOW. FOR
TEMPS...WILL GO WITH A COMBO OF INHERITED FORECAST WITH BC BLEND.
HOWEVER...WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS LOWER FOR MOST AREAS FOR OVERNIGHT
MINS...AS MET AND MAV GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING LOWER OVER THE
PAST FEW RUNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AMPLIFIES FROM A DEEP
EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH AND WESTERN UPPER RIDGE TO A MORE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. WEAK AND MOISTURE LACKING FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SPECIFICALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER OR TWO. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL
BE A WARMING TREND FROM BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS AIRMASSES BECOME
MORE PACIFIC IN ORIGIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GIVEN SOME DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP LATE WEEK
REGARDING HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN GETS. AFTER A WARMING TREND INTO
MIDWEEK...STILL LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED LATE WEEK...WITH THE WEEKEND
SHAPING UP TO BE CHILLY ONCE AGAIN. SO THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE ROLLS
ON.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRATUS DECK COVERS CENTRAL WV AND SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST.
STILL SEEING A FEW RADAR RETURNS FROM KBKW-KCRW-KEKN LINE WITH NW
GUSTY WINDS AND CAA. UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS WITH SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT GRADUALLY DIMINISHES
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS GENERALLY
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TO
EAST...PROVIDING SOME CLEARING INTO SATURDAY. CLOUDS GRADUALLY
ERODING AND LIFTING IN THE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT CLOUD AND SNOW RESTRICTIONS
COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...KMC/ARJ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KMC









000
FXUS61 KRLX 281310
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
910 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY UNDER A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL WV PER RADAR
IMAGES SHOWING A BURST OF SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING KANAWHA COUNTY.
THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST ALONG I64 CORRIDOR.
EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO END AROUND 10 AM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN...AS 5H TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...ESPECIALLY AT THE LOW
LEVELS...WILL UNDERGO A DRYING TREND. CLEAR SKIES WILL SETTLE IN
TONIGHT WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER LIGHT FLOW. FOR
TEMPS...WILL GO WITH A COMBO OF INHERITED FORECAST WITH BC BLEND.
HOWEVER...WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS LOWER FOR MOST AREAS FOR OVERNIGHT
MINS...AS MET AND MAV GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING LOWER OVER THE
PAST FEW RUNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AMPLIFIES FROM A DEEP
EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH AND WESTERN UPPER RIDGE TO A MORE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. WEAK AND MOISTURE LACKING FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SPECIFICALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER OR TWO. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL
BE A WARMING TREND FROM BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS AIRMASSES BECOME
MORE PACIFIC IN ORIGIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GIVEN SOME DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP LATE WEEK
REGARDING HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN GETS. AFTER A WARMING TREND INTO
MIDWEEK...STILL LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED LATE WEEK...WITH THE WEEKEND
SHAPING UP TO BE CHILLY ONCE AGAIN. SO THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE ROLLS
ON.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRATUS DECK COVERS CENTRAL WV AND SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST.
STILL SEEING A FEW RADAR RETURNS FROM KBKW-KCRW-KEKN LINE WITH NW
GUSTY WINDS AND CAA. UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS WITH SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT GRADUALLY DIMINISHES
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS GENERALLY
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TO
EAST...PROVIDING SOME CLEARING INTO SATURDAY. CLOUDS GRADUALLY
ERODING AND LIFTING IN THE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT CLOUD AND SNOW RESTRICTIONS
COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...KMC/ARJ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KMC









000
FXUS61 KRLX 281310
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
910 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY UNDER A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL WV PER RADAR
IMAGES SHOWING A BURST OF SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING KANAWHA COUNTY.
THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST ALONG I64 CORRIDOR.
EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO END AROUND 10 AM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN...AS 5H TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...ESPECIALLY AT THE LOW
LEVELS...WILL UNDERGO A DRYING TREND. CLEAR SKIES WILL SETTLE IN
TONIGHT WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER LIGHT FLOW. FOR
TEMPS...WILL GO WITH A COMBO OF INHERITED FORECAST WITH BC BLEND.
HOWEVER...WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS LOWER FOR MOST AREAS FOR OVERNIGHT
MINS...AS MET AND MAV GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING LOWER OVER THE
PAST FEW RUNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AMPLIFIES FROM A DEEP
EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH AND WESTERN UPPER RIDGE TO A MORE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. WEAK AND MOISTURE LACKING FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SPECIFICALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER OR TWO. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL
BE A WARMING TREND FROM BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS AIRMASSES BECOME
MORE PACIFIC IN ORIGIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GIVEN SOME DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP LATE WEEK
REGARDING HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN GETS. AFTER A WARMING TREND INTO
MIDWEEK...STILL LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED LATE WEEK...WITH THE WEEKEND
SHAPING UP TO BE CHILLY ONCE AGAIN. SO THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE ROLLS
ON.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRATUS DECK COVERS CENTRAL WV AND SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST.
STILL SEEING A FEW RADAR RETURNS FROM KBKW-KCRW-KEKN LINE WITH NW
GUSTY WINDS AND CAA. UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS WITH SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT GRADUALLY DIMINISHES
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS GENERALLY
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TO
EAST...PROVIDING SOME CLEARING INTO SATURDAY. CLOUDS GRADUALLY
ERODING AND LIFTING IN THE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT CLOUD AND SNOW RESTRICTIONS
COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...KMC/ARJ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KMC








000
FXUS61 KRLX 281050
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
650 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY UNDER A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN...AS 5H TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...ESPECIALLY AT THE LOW
LEVELS...WILL UNDERGO A DRYING TREND. CLEAR SKIES WILL SETTLE IN
TONIGHT WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER LIGHT FLOW. FOR
TEMPS...WILL GO WITH A COMBO OF INHERITED FORECAST WITH BC BLEND.
HOWEVER...WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS LOWER FOR MOST AREAS FOR OVERNIGHT
MINS...AS MET AND MAV GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING LOWER OVER THE PAST
FEW RUNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AMPLIFIES FROM A DEEP
EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH AND WESTERN UPPER RIDGE TO A MORE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. WEAK AND MOISTURE LACKING FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SPECIFICALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER OR TWO. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL
BE A WARMING TREND FROM BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS AIRMASSES BECOME
MORE PACIFIC IN ORIGIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GIVEN SOME DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP LATE WEEK
REGARDING HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN GETS. AFTER A WARMING TREND INTO
MIDWEEK...STILL LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED LATE WEEK...WITH THE WEEKEND
SHAPING UP TO BE CHILLY ONCE AGAIN. SO THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE ROLLS
ON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRATUS DECK COVERS CENTRAL WV AND SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST.
STILL SEEING A FEW RADAR RETURNS FROM KBKW-KCRW-KEKN LINE WITH NW
GUSTY WINDS AND CAA. UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS WITH SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT GRADUALLY DIMINISHES
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS GENERALLY
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TO
EAST...PROVIDING SOME CLEARING INTO SATURDAY. CLOUDS GRADUALLY
ERODING AND LIFTING IN THE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT CLOUD AND SNOW RESTRICTIONS
COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KMC









000
FXUS61 KRLX 281050
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
650 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY UNDER A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN...AS 5H TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...ESPECIALLY AT THE LOW
LEVELS...WILL UNDERGO A DRYING TREND. CLEAR SKIES WILL SETTLE IN
TONIGHT WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER LIGHT FLOW. FOR
TEMPS...WILL GO WITH A COMBO OF INHERITED FORECAST WITH BC BLEND.
HOWEVER...WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS LOWER FOR MOST AREAS FOR OVERNIGHT
MINS...AS MET AND MAV GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING LOWER OVER THE PAST
FEW RUNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AMPLIFIES FROM A DEEP
EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH AND WESTERN UPPER RIDGE TO A MORE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. WEAK AND MOISTURE LACKING FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SPECIFICALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER OR TWO. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL
BE A WARMING TREND FROM BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS AIRMASSES BECOME
MORE PACIFIC IN ORIGIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GIVEN SOME DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP LATE WEEK
REGARDING HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN GETS. AFTER A WARMING TREND INTO
MIDWEEK...STILL LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED LATE WEEK...WITH THE WEEKEND
SHAPING UP TO BE CHILLY ONCE AGAIN. SO THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE ROLLS
ON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRATUS DECK COVERS CENTRAL WV AND SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST.
STILL SEEING A FEW RADAR RETURNS FROM KBKW-KCRW-KEKN LINE WITH NW
GUSTY WINDS AND CAA. UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS WITH SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT GRADUALLY DIMINISHES
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS GENERALLY
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TO
EAST...PROVIDING SOME CLEARING INTO SATURDAY. CLOUDS GRADUALLY
ERODING AND LIFTING IN THE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT CLOUD AND SNOW RESTRICTIONS
COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KMC








000
FXUS61 KRLX 281050
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
650 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY UNDER A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN...AS 5H TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...ESPECIALLY AT THE LOW
LEVELS...WILL UNDERGO A DRYING TREND. CLEAR SKIES WILL SETTLE IN
TONIGHT WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER LIGHT FLOW. FOR
TEMPS...WILL GO WITH A COMBO OF INHERITED FORECAST WITH BC BLEND.
HOWEVER...WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS LOWER FOR MOST AREAS FOR OVERNIGHT
MINS...AS MET AND MAV GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING LOWER OVER THE PAST
FEW RUNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AMPLIFIES FROM A DEEP
EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH AND WESTERN UPPER RIDGE TO A MORE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. WEAK AND MOISTURE LACKING FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SPECIFICALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER OR TWO. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL
BE A WARMING TREND FROM BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS AIRMASSES BECOME
MORE PACIFIC IN ORIGIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GIVEN SOME DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP LATE WEEK
REGARDING HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN GETS. AFTER A WARMING TREND INTO
MIDWEEK...STILL LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED LATE WEEK...WITH THE WEEKEND
SHAPING UP TO BE CHILLY ONCE AGAIN. SO THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE ROLLS
ON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRATUS DECK COVERS CENTRAL WV AND SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST.
STILL SEEING A FEW RADAR RETURNS FROM KBKW-KCRW-KEKN LINE WITH NW
GUSTY WINDS AND CAA. UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS WITH SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT GRADUALLY DIMINISHES
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS GENERALLY
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TO
EAST...PROVIDING SOME CLEARING INTO SATURDAY. CLOUDS GRADUALLY
ERODING AND LIFTING IN THE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT CLOUD AND SNOW RESTRICTIONS
COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KMC









000
FXUS61 KRLX 281050
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
650 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY UNDER A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN...AS 5H TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...ESPECIALLY AT THE LOW
LEVELS...WILL UNDERGO A DRYING TREND. CLEAR SKIES WILL SETTLE IN
TONIGHT WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER LIGHT FLOW. FOR
TEMPS...WILL GO WITH A COMBO OF INHERITED FORECAST WITH BC BLEND.
HOWEVER...WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS LOWER FOR MOST AREAS FOR OVERNIGHT
MINS...AS MET AND MAV GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING LOWER OVER THE PAST
FEW RUNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AMPLIFIES FROM A DEEP
EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH AND WESTERN UPPER RIDGE TO A MORE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. WEAK AND MOISTURE LACKING FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SPECIFICALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER OR TWO. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL
BE A WARMING TREND FROM BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS AIRMASSES BECOME
MORE PACIFIC IN ORIGIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GIVEN SOME DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP LATE WEEK
REGARDING HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN GETS. AFTER A WARMING TREND INTO
MIDWEEK...STILL LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED LATE WEEK...WITH THE WEEKEND
SHAPING UP TO BE CHILLY ONCE AGAIN. SO THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE ROLLS
ON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRATUS DECK COVERS CENTRAL WV AND SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST.
STILL SEEING A FEW RADAR RETURNS FROM KBKW-KCRW-KEKN LINE WITH NW
GUSTY WINDS AND CAA. UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS WITH SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT GRADUALLY DIMINISHES
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS GENERALLY
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TO
EAST...PROVIDING SOME CLEARING INTO SATURDAY. CLOUDS GRADUALLY
ERODING AND LIFTING IN THE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT CLOUD AND SNOW RESTRICTIONS
COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KMC








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