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000
FXUS61 KRLX 182318
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
718 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT MOVES IN TONIGHT. STORM SHOULD
REMAIN TO OUR SE ALONG COAST...RESULTING IN DRY/WARM EASTER
WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES. THE REST OF FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
COLD FRONT AT 18Z MAKING ITS WAY TOWARDS CENTRAL OHIO...WILL PUSH
EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAVE NOT OBSERVED
ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS OHIO OR INDIANA TODAY WITH THIS
FRONT...SO REMOVED ALL POPS FROM THE FORECAST. WITH THAT BEING
SAID...A SPRINKLE CANT BE RULE OUT UP TO THE NORTH.

UPPER LOW IN SOUTHERN STREAM STILL LOOKING TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH.
MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS. MAIN
EFFECT WILL JUST BE CLOUD COVER...MAINLY ACROSS FAR
EASTERN/SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

OTHERWISE...DRY...AND WARM SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE START TO BUILD BACK IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY...INCREASING SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

NO MAJOR CHANGES.  SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LINGER ON THE EASTERN
SLOPES AND FORM MORE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. SO INCREASED
SKY GRIDS A BIT OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER GREENBRIER
VALLEY DOWN THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS.

LIKED OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST OF STAYING ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES EASTER SUNDAY.  ANY WEAK FLOW
WILL BE DOWNSLOPE FOR THE WESTERN LOWLANDS.

STILL HAVE SOME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 20S
EASTER AFTERNOON...BEFORE DEW POINTS GRADUALLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS...RED FLAG CRITERIA NOT EXPECTED
SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUING TO CONVERGE ON AN EARLY MORNING TUE SOLUTION WITH
REGARD TO UPPER S/W TROUGH AND ASSOC COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WEST TO EAST. NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREV FCST REGARDING
PROGRESSION OF PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
PARTICULARLY TUE MORNING. SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE AND THUS GENERALLY
ONLY EXPECTING AROUND A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF PRECIP WITH IT.
TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER WARMING TREND LATE WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM
PROGGED TO PUSH OUT OF THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH COLD FRONT AT LEAST
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY EARLY FRIDAY. LATEST OP GFS
AND EURO VERY DIFFERENT BY LATE IN THE PERIOD AND HAVE LEANED THE
FORECAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME TOWARDS THE EURO...WHICH BRINGS THE
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIP WITH IT ON
FRIDAY AND LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AREA
REMAINING IN THE BASE OF L/W TROUGHING TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MOISTURE FROM A LOW TO OUR SOUTH COULD CREEP
FAR ENOUGH NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS MOUNTAINS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SAT 04/19/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/50/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ/SL
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...ARJ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 182015
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
415 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT MOVES IN TONIGHT. STORM SHOULD
REMAIN TO OUR SE ALONG COAST...RESULTING IN DRY/WARM EASTER
WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT AT 18Z MAKING ITS WAY TOWARDS CENTRAL OHIO...WILL PUSH
EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAVE NOT OBSERVED
ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS OHIO OR INDIANA TODAY WITH THIS
FRONT...SO REMOVED ALL POPS FROM THE FORECAST. WITH THAT BEING
SAID...A SPRINKLE CANT BE RULE OUT UP TO THE NORTH.

UPPER LOW IN SOUTHERN STREAM STILL LOOKING TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH.
MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS. MAIN
EFFECT WILL JUST BE CLOUD COVER...MAINLY ACROSS FAR
EASTERN/SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

OTHERWISE...DRY...AND WARM SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE START TO BUILD BACK IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY...INCREASING SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

NO MAJOR CHANGES.  SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LINGER ON THE EASTERN
SLOPES AND FORM MORE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. SO INCREASED
SKY GRIDS A BIT OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER GREENBRIER
VALLEY DOWN THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS.

LIKED OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST OF STAYING ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES EASTER SUNDAY.  ANY WEAK FLOW
WILL BE DOWNSLOPE FOR THE WESTERN LOWLANDS.

STILL HAVE SOME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 20S
EASTER AFTERNOON...BEFORE DEW POINTS GRADUALLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS...RED FLAG CRITERIA NOT EXPECTED
SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUING TO CONVERGE ON AN EARLY MORNING TUE SOLUTION WITH
REGARD TO UPPER S/W TROUGH AND ASSOC COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WEST TO EAST. NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREV FCST REGARDING
PROGRESSION OF PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
PARTICULARLY TUE MORNING. SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE AND THUS GENERALLY
ONLY EXPECTING AROUND A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF PRECIP WITH IT.
TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER WARMING TREND LATE WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM
PROGGED TO PUSH OUT OF THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH COLD FRONT AT LEAST
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY EARLY FRIDAY. LATEST OP GFS
AND EURO VERY DIFFERENT BY LATE IN THE PERIOD AND HAVE LEANED THE
FORECAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME TOWARDS THE EURO...WHICH BRINGS THE
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIP WITH IT ON
FRIDAY AND LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AREA
REMAINING IN THE BASE OF L/W TROUGHING TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS...AND SCT TO BKN MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MOISTURE FROM A LOW TO OUR SOUTH COULD CREEP
FAR ENOUGH NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS MOUNTAINS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/50/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...SL











000
FXUS61 KRLX 181747
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
147 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT MOVES IN TONIGHT. STORM SHOULD
REMAIN TO OUR SE ALONG COAST...RESULTING IN DRY/WARM EASTER
WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT AT 18Z MAKING ITS WAY TOWARDS CENTRAL OHIO...WILL PUSH
EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAVE NOT OBSERVED
ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS OHIO OR INDIANA TODAY WITH THIS
FRONT...SO REMOVED ALL POPS FROM THE FORECAST. WITH THAT BEING
SAID...A SPRINKLE CANT BE RULE OUT UP TO THE NORTH.

UPPER LOW IN SOUTHERN STREAM STILL LOOKING TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH.
MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS. MAIN
EFFECT WILL JUST BE CLOUD COVER...MAINLY ACROSS FAR
EASTERN/SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

OTHERWISE...DRY...AND WARM SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE START TO BUILD BACK IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ALONG SE COAST WILL VERY SLOWLY
TRACK E INTO W ATLANTIC BY END OF WEEKEND. SENSIBLE WX EFFECTS FROM
THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE MAINLY A CLOUD ISSUE...WITH SOME CIRRUS
MAINLY OVER SE WV/SW VA ZONES SATURDAY. THERE ARE HINTS THAT SOME
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS MAY TRY TO SNEAK INTO POCAHONTAS SUNDAY NIGHT ON
SOME SE FLOW H85 MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM. WILL
START WITH NE SURFACE FLOW ON SATURDAY...VEERING TO LIGHT SE FLOW ON
SUNDAY. FOR TEMPS THIS WEEKEND TRIED TO ROLL WITH WARM GUIDANCE FOR
THE LOWLANDS BOTH DAYS WITH E SLOPES GIVEN A NOD ON COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. TRIED TO INCORPORATE SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING
EFFECTS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH NIGHTS BUT WITH AN OVERALL INCREASE
COME SUNDAY NIGHT. FIRE DANGER THREAT WILL BE INCREASING GIVEN LOW
AFTERNOON RH VALUES AND DRYING OF 10 HR FUELS...BUT WINDS SHOULD NOT
BE A COMPLICATING FACTOR. ALL IN ALL...A STELLAR EASTER WEEKEND.

MAIN CHANGE TO EARLY NEXT WEEK WAS TO DELAY POPS PER SLOWER TRENDS
ON MODELS FOR S/W TROF AND SURFACE FRONT. HAVE FROPA ON TUESDAY WITH
BAND OF LIKELY POPS WITH MONDAY STAYING ON DRIER SIDE. KEEP THUNDER
CHANCES IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL
RESIDE. FOR TEMPS MONDAY...LEANED HEAVILY ON WARMER MEX GUIDANCE
WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F DEPICTED IN THE LOWLANDS. LIKED IDEA OF
GOING A BIT ABOVE EVEN WARMEST GUIDANCE FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN
INCREASE IN BL STIR AS WELL AS CLOUDS. QPF WISE...THIS SYSTEM LOOKS
TO CARRY .25 TO .50 INCHES OF RAIN POTENTIAL WITH IT. IT IS GETTING
ON THE DRY SIDE IN THE MOUNTAINS...PARTICULARLY IN THE N MOUNTAINS
WITH EKN RUNNING QUITE A BIT BELOW NORMAL SO FAR THIS MONTH. SO
THIS WOULD BE WELCOMED RAIN OUT THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUED WPC THINKING THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. FAIRLY TRANQUIL
PERIOD GENERALLY-SPEAKING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A S/W UPPER TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL REGARDING THAT SYSTEM...BUT YET
BETTER AGREEMENT BRINGING THE SYSTEM ACROSS EITHER MON NIGHT OR TUE
MORNING. AS SUCH...LOWERED POPS FOR MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
MONDAY BEFORE BRINGING IN HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIP MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. CONTINUED TO CAP PRECIP CHANCES AT HIGH CHANCE
WITH THE TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. NO MAJOR HEAT WAVES OR COLD BLASTS ON
THE HORIZON DURING THIS PERIOD. DID WARM TEMPS UP A FAIR AMOUNT FOR
MONDAY...INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S FOR THE LOWLANDS...WITH GREATER
CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WON/T BE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS...AND SCT TO BKN MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MOISTURE FROM A LOW TO OUR SOUTH COULD CREEP
FAR ENOUGH NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS MOUNTAINS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/50/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...SL









000
FXUS61 KRLX 181206
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
806 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT MOVES IN FRIDAY NIGHT/DISSIPATES.
STORM SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR SE ALONG COAST...RESULTING IN DRY/WARM
EASTER WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
8 AM UPDATE...UPDATES TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT GRIDS.
OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MODELS SHOWING A WEAK MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO
THE REGION THIS EVENING THEN DISSIPATING. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE ON
ALL MODELS...WILL PULL POPS IN ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES. EVEN THERE...WILL ONLY RUN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. WITH
CIRRUS CLOUDS TONIGHT AND SOME WIND PICKING UP LATE TONIGHT...WILL
RUN TOWARD THE WARMER MAV MOS LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ALONG SE COAST WILL VERY SLOWLY
TRACK E INTO W ATLANTIC BY END OF WEEKEND. SENSIBLE WX EFFECTS FROM
THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE MAINLY A CLOUD ISSUE...WITH SOME CIRRUS
MAINLY OVER SE WV/SW VA ZONES SATURDAY. THERE ARE HINTS THAT SOME
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS MAY TRY TO SNEAK INTO POCAHONTAS SUNDAY NIGHT ON
SOME SE FLOW H85 MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM. WILL
START WITH NE SURFACE FLOW ON SATURDAY...VEERING TO LIGHT SE FLOW ON
SUNDAY. FOR TEMPS THIS WEEKEND TRIED TO ROLL WITH WARM GUIDANCE FOR
THE LOWLANDS BOTH DAYS WITH E SLOPES GIVEN A NOD ON COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. TRIED TO INCORPORATE SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING
EFFECTS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH NIGHTS BUT WITH AN OVERALL INCREASE
COME SUNDAY NIGHT. FIRE DANGER THREAT WILL BE INCREASING GIVEN LOW
AFTERNOON RH VALUES AND DRYING OF 10 HR FUELS...BUT WINDS SHOULD NOT
BE A COMPLICATING FACTOR. ALL IN ALL...A STELLAR EASTER WEEKEND.

MAIN CHANGE TO EARLY NEXT WEEK WAS TO DELAY POPS PER SLOWER TRENDS
ON MODELS FOR S/W TROF AND SURFACE FRONT. HAVE FROPA ON TUESDAY WITH
BAND OF LIKELY POPS WITH MONDAY STAYING ON DRIER SIDE. KEEP THUNDER
CHANCES IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL
RESIDE. FOR TEMPS MONDAY...LEANED HEAVILY ON WARMER MEX GUIDANCE
WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F DEPICTED IN THE LOWLANDS. LIKED IDEA OF
GOING A BIT ABOVE EVEN WARMEST GUIDANCE FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN
INCREASE IN BL STIR AS WELL AS CLOUDS. QPF WISE...THIS SYSTEM LOOKS
TO CARRY .25 TO .50 INCHES OF RAIN POTENTIAL WITH IT. IT IS GETTING
ON THE DRY SIDE IN THE MOUNTAINS...PARTICULARLY IN THE N MOUNTAINS
WITH EKN RUNNING QUITE A BIT BELOW NORMAL SO FAR THIS MONTH. SO
THIS WOULD BE WELCOMED RAIN OUT THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUED WPC THINKING THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. FAIRLY TRANQUIL
PERIOD GENERALLY-SPEAKING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A S/W UPPER TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL REGARDING THAT SYSTEM...BUT YET
BETTER AGREEMENT BRINGING THE SYSTEM ACROSS EITHER MON NIGHT OR TUE
MORNING. AS SUCH...LOWERED POPS FOR MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
MONDAY BEFORE BRINGING IN HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIP MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. CONTINUED TO CAP PRECIP CHANCES AT HIGH CHANCE
WITH THE TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. NO MAJOR HEAT WAVES OR COLD BLASTS ON
THE HORIZON DURING THIS PERIOD. DID WARM TEMPS UP A FAIR AMOUNT FOR
MONDAY...INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S FOR THE LOWLANDS...WITH GREATER
CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WON/T BE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD DESPITE A WEAK MOISTURE
STARVED COLD FRONT THAT MOVES IN THIS EVENING AND DISSIPATES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/50/30
NEAR TERM...RPY/SL
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...RPY









000
FXUS61 KRLX 181020
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
618 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT MOVES IN FRIDAY NIGHT/DISSIPATES.
STORM SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR SE ALONG COAST...RESULTING IN DRY/WARM
EASTER WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS SHOWING A WEAK MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
REGION THIS EVENING THEN DISSIPATING. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE ON ALL
MODELS...WILL PULL POPS IN ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.
EVEN THERE...WILL ONLY RUN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. WITH CIRRUS CLOUDS
TONIGHT AND SOME WIND PICKING UP LATE TONIGHT...WILL RUN TOWARD THE
WARMER MAV MOS LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ALONG SE COAST WILL VERY SLOWLY
TRACK E INTO W ATLANTIC BY END OF WEEKEND. SENSIBLE WX EFFECTS FROM
THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE MAINLY A CLOUD ISSUE...WITH SOME CIRRUS
MAINLY OVER SE WV/SW VA ZONES SATURDAY. THERE ARE HINTS THAT SOME
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS MAY TRY TO SNEAK INTO POCAHONTAS SUNDAY NIGHT ON
SOME SE FLOW H85 MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM. WILL
START WITH NE SURFACE FLOW ON SATURDAY...VEERING TO LIGHT SE FLOW ON
SUNDAY. FOR TEMPS THIS WEEKEND TRIED TO ROLL WITH WARM GUIDANCE FOR
THE LOWLANDS BOTH DAYS WITH E SLOPES GIVEN A NOD ON COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. TRIED TO INCORPORATE SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING
EFFECTS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH NIGHTS BUT WITH AN OVERALL INCREASE
COME SUNDAY NIGHT. FIRE DANGER THREAT WILL BE INCREASING GIVEN LOW
AFTERNOON RH VALUES AND DRYING OF 10 HR FUELS...BUT WINDS SHOULD NOT
BE A COMPLICATING FACTOR. ALL IN ALL...A STELLAR EASTER WEEKEND.

MAIN CHANGE TO EARLY NEXT WEEK WAS TO DELAY POPS PER SLOWER TRENDS
ON MODELS FOR S/W TROF AND SURFACE FRONT. HAVE FROPA ON TUESDAY WITH
BAND OF LIKELY POPS WITH MONDAY STAYING ON DRIER SIDE. KEEP THUNDER
CHANCES IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL
RESIDE. FOR TEMPS MONDAY...LEANED HEAVILY ON WARMER MEX GUIDANCE
WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F DEPICTED IN THE LOWLANDS. LIKED IDEA OF
GOING A BIT ABOVE EVEN WARMEST GUIDANCE FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN
INCREASE IN BL STIR AS WELL AS CLOUDS. QPF WISE...THIS SYSTEM LOOKS
TO CARRY .25 TO .50 INCHES OF RAIN POTENTIAL WITH IT. IT IS GETTING
ON THE DRY SIDE IN THE MOUNTAINS...PARTICULARLY IN THE N MOUNTAINS
WITH EKN RUNNING QUITE A BIT BELOW NORMAL SO FAR THIS MONTH. SO
THIS WOULD BE WELCOMED RAIN OUT THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUED WPC THINKING THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. FAIRLY TRANQUIL
PERIOD GENERALLY-SPEAKING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A S/W UPPER TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL REGARDING THAT SYSTEM...BUT YET
BETTER AGREEMENT BRINGING THE SYSTEM ACROSS EITHER MON NIGHT OR TUE
MORNING. AS SUCH...LOWERED POPS FOR MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
MONDAY BEFORE BRINGING IN HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIP MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. CONTINUED TO CAP PRECIP CHANCES AT HIGH CHANCE
WITH THE TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. NO MAJOR HEAT WAVES OR COLD BLASTS ON
THE HORIZON DURING THIS PERIOD. DID WARM TEMPS UP A FAIR AMOUNT FOR
MONDAY...INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S FOR THE LOWLANDS...WITH GREATER
CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WON/T BE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD DESPITE A WEAK MOISTURE
STARVED COLD FRONT THAT MOVES IN THIS EVENING AND DISSIPATES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/50/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...RPY











000
FXUS61 KRLX 180627
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
227 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT MOVES IN FRIDAY NIGHT/DISSIPATES.
STORM SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR SE ALONG COAST...RESULTING IN DRY/WARM
EASTER WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS SHOWING A WEAK MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
REGION THIS EVENING THEN DISSIPATING. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE ON ALL
MODELS...WILL PULL POPS IN ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.
EVEN THERE...WILL ONLY RUN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. WITH CIRRUS CLOUDS
TONIGHT AND SOME WIND PICKING UP LATE TONIGHT...WILL RUN TOWARD THE
WARMER MAV MOS LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ALONG SE COAST WILL VERY SLOWLY
TRACK E INTO W ATLANTIC BY END OF WEEKEND. SENSIBLE WX EFFECTS FROM
THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE MAINLY A CLOUD ISSUE...WITH SOME CIRRUS
MAINLY OVER SE WV/SW VA ZONES SATURDAY. THERE ARE HINTS THAT SOME
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS MAY TRY TO SNEAK INTO POCAHONTAS SUNDAY NIGHT ON
SOME SE FLOW H85 MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM. WILL
START WITH NE SURFACE FLOW ON SATURDAY...VEERING TO LIGHT SE FLOW ON
SUNDAY. FOR TEMPS THIS WEEKEND TRIED TO ROLL WITH WARM GUIDANCE FOR
THE LOWLANDS BOTH DAYS WITH E SLOPES GIVEN A NOD ON COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. TRIED TO INCORPORATE SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING
EFFECTS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH NIGHTS BUT WITH AN OVERALL INCREASE
COME SUNDAY NIGHT. FIRE DANGER THREAT WILL BE INCREASING GIVEN LOW
AFTERNOON RH VALUES AND DRYING OF 10 HR FUELS...BUT WINDS SHOULD NOT
BE A COMPLICATING FACTOR. ALL IN ALL...A STELLAR EASTER WEEKEND.

MAIN CHANGE TO EARLY NEXT WEEK WAS TO DELAY POPS PER SLOWER TRENDS
ON MODELS FOR S/W TROF AND SURFACE FRONT. HAVE FROPA ON TUESDAY WITH
BAND OF LIKELY POPS WITH MONDAY STAYING ON DRIER SIDE. KEEP THUNDER
CHANCES IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL
RESIDE. FOR TEMPS MONDAY...LEANED HEAVILY ON WARMER MEX GUIDANCE
WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F DEPICTED IN THE LOWLANDS. LIKED IDEA OF
GOING A BIT ABOVE EVEN WARMEST GUIDANCE FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN
INCREASE IN BL STIR AS WELL AS CLOUDS. QPF WISE...THIS SYSTEM LOOKS
TO CARRY .25 TO .50 INCHES OF RAIN POTENTIAL WITH IT. IT IS GETTING
ON THE DRY SIDE IN THE MOUNTAINS...PARTICULARLY IN THE N MOUNTAINS
WITH EKN RUNNING QUITE A BIT BELOW NORMAL SO FAR THIS MONTH. SO
THIS WOULD BE WELCOMED RAIN OUT THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUED WPC THINKING THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. FAIRLY TRANQUIL
PERIOD GENERALLY-SPEAKING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A S/W UPPER TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL REGARDING THAT SYSTEM...BUT YET
BETTER AGREEMENT BRINGING THE SYSTEM ACROSS EITHER MON NIGHT OR TUE
MORNING. AS SUCH...LOWERED POPS FOR MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
MONDAY BEFORE BRINGING IN HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIP MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. CONTINUED TO CAP PRECIP CHANCES AT HIGH CHANCE
WITH THE TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. NO MAJOR HEAT WAVES OR COLD BLASTS ON
THE HORIZON DURING THIS PERIOD. DID WARM TEMPS UP A FAIR AMOUNT FOR
MONDAY...INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S FOR THE LOWLANDS...WITH GREATER
CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WON/T BE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD DESPITE A WEAK MOISTURE
STARVED COLD FRONT THAT MOVES IN THIS EVENING AND DISSIPATES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              FRI 04/18/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/50/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...RPY









000
FXUS61 KRLX 180532
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
125 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT MOVES IN FRIDAY NIGHT/DISSIPATES.
STORM SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR SE ALONG COAST...RESULTING IN DRY/WARM
EASTER WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS SHOWING A WEAK MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
REGION THIS EVENING THEN DISSIPATING. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE ON ALL
MODELS...WILL PULL POPS IN ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.
EVEN THERE...WILL ONLY RUN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. WITH CIRRUS CLOUDS
TONIGHT AND SOME WIND PICKING UP LATE TONIGHT...WILL RUN TOWARD THE
WARMER MAV MOS LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE ADVERTISED WEAKENING COOL FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO ENTER THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS AND WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE...ANY CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER REMAINS SLIM.  WILL
LEAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH...FOR
CONSISTENCY FOR NOW.

THE GFS HAS BEEN THE FURTHEST NORTH DEVELOPING DEEPER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW MOVING CUT OFF 500 MB LOW OVER THE WEEKEND
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. YET...EVEN THE 12Z GFS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
THAN THE 06Z GFS.  WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE THE OUR CWA DRY...WITH
PCPN MENTIONING POPS JUST OFF TO OUR SE. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS MOSTLY
NORTHEAST RATHER THAN SOUTHEAST.

DEW POINTS MAY ACTUALLY DROP IN THAT LOW LEVEL FLOW SATURDAY
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT.

WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH WEEKEND...BUT WITH DRYING THE USUAL
SCATTERING OF BRUSH FIRES FIGURED DURING LATE AFTERNOONS.

SO OVERALL...IF CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...A RELATIVELY
PLEASANT EASTER WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUED WPC THINKING THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. FAIRLY TRANQUIL
PERIOD GENERALLY-SPEAKING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A S/W UPPER TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL REGARDING THAT SYSTEM...BUT YET
BETTER AGREEMENT BRINGING THE SYSTEM ACROSS EITHER MON NIGHT OR TUE
MORNING. AS SUCH...LOWERED POPS FOR MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
MONDAY BEFORE BRINGING IN HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIP MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. CONTINUED TO CAP PRECIP CHANCES AT HIGH CHANCE
WITH THE TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. NO MAJOR HEAT WAVES OR COLD BLASTS ON
THE HORIZON DURING THIS PERIOD. DID WARM TEMPS UP A FAIR AMOUNT FOR
MONDAY...INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S FOR THE LOWLANDS...WITH GREATER
CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WON/T BE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD DESPITE A WEAK MOISTURE
STARVED COLD FRONT THAT MOVES IN THIS EVENING AND DISSIPATES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              FRI 04/18/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/RPY/50
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...RPY











000
FXUS61 KRLX 172326
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
726 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/DISSIPATES. STORM SHOULD
REMAIN TO OUR SE ALONG COAST...RESULTING IN DRY/WARM EASTER WEEKEND.
ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. NO CHANGES NEEDED ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. UPPER AIR PATTERN BECOMES SPLIT BY FRIDAY...AS AN UPPER
LOW IN THE SOUTHERN U.S. DEVELOPS AND TREKS EASTWARD...WHILE A
COLD FRONT IN NORTHERN STREAM WILL TREK EAST TOWARDS THE REGION
FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS...THUS NO NEED FOR A FREEZE WARNING ANTICIPATED.

AS FRONT ENTERS SOUTHEAST OHIO ZONES TOWARDS END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...BUT AT
BEST...MAY ONLY SEE SPRINKLES...DUE TO WEAKENING NATURE OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND DRY AIR IN PLACE THAT WILL PREVENT MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...WILL LEAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE IN SOUTHEAST OHIO COUNTIES FOR NOW.

MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE AND MORE CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING UPPER
LOW AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION AND DYNAMICS TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE CWA. AS IT
STANDS RIGHT NOW...BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION FRIDAY
EVENING...IF ABLE TO OCCUR...WOULD BE SOUTHWEST VA AND SOUTHERN WV
MOUNTAIN ZONES. WILL LEAVE FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH DRY FOR THE
NEAR TERM PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE ADVERTISED WEAKENING COOL FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO ENTER THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS AND WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE...ANY CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER REMAINS SLIM.  WILL
LEAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH...FOR
CONSISTENCY FOR NOW.

THE GFS HAS BEEN THE FURTHEST NORTH DEVELOPING DEEPER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW MOVING CUT OFF 500 MB LOW OVER THE WEEKEND
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. YET...EVEN THE 12Z GFS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
THAN THE 06Z GFS.  WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE THE OUR CWA DRY...WITH
PCPN MENTIONING POPS JUST OFF TO OUR SE. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS MOSTLY
NORTHEAST RATHER THAN SOUTHEAST.

DEW POINTS MAY ACTUALLY DROP IN THAT LOW LEVEL FLOW SATURDAY
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT.

WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH WEEKEND...BUT WITH DRYING THE USUAL
SCATTERING OF BRUSH FIRES FIGURED DURING LATE AFTERNOONS.

SO OVERALL...IF CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...A RELATIVELY
PLEASANT EASTER WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUED WPC THINKING THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. FAIRLY TRANQUIL
PERIOD GENERALLY-SPEAKING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A S/W UPPER TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL REGARDING THAT SYSTEM...BUT YET
BETTER AGREEMENT BRINGING THE SYSTEM ACROSS EITHER MON NIGHT OR TUE
MORNING. AS SUCH...LOWERED POPS FOR MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
MONDAY BEFORE BRINGING IN HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIP MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. CONTINUED TO CAP PRECIP CHANCES AT HIGH CHANCE
WITH THE TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. NO MAJOR HEAT WAVES OR COLD BLASTS ON
THE HORIZON DURING THIS PERIOD. DID WARM TEMPS UP A FAIR AMOUNT FOR
MONDAY...INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S FOR THE LOWLANDS...WITH GREATER
CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WON/T BE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL
SPREAD FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY 13Z FRIDAY.

LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS THROUGH 09Z...WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER 09Z...BUT REMAIN LIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK COULD FORM OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/50/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ/SL
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...ARJ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 172225
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
625 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/DISSIPATES. STORM SHOULD
REMAIN TO OUR SE ALONG COAST...RESULTING IN DRY/WARM EASTER WEEKEND.
ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. NO CHANGES NEEDED ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. UPPER AIR PATTERN BECOMES SPLIT BY FRIDAY...AS AN UPPER
LOW IN THE SOUTHERN U.S. DEVELOPS AND TREKS EASTWARD...WHILE A
COLD FRONT IN NORTHERN STREAM WILL TREK EAST TOWARDS THE REGION
FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS...THUS NO NEED FOR A FREEZE WARNING ANTICIPATED.

AS FRONT ENTERS SOUTHEAST OHIO ZONES TOWARDS END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...BUT AT
BEST...MAY ONLY SEE SPRINKLES...DUE TO WEAKENING NATURE OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND DRY AIR IN PLACE THAT WILL PREVENT MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...WILL LEAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE IN SOUTHEAST OHIO COUNTIES FOR NOW.

MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE AND MORE CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING UPPER
LOW AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION AND DYNAMICS TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE CWA. AS IT
STANDS RIGHT NOW...BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION FRIDAY
EVENING...IF ABLE TO OCCUR...WOULD BE SOUTHWEST VA AND SOUTHERN WV
MOUNTAIN ZONES. WILL LEAVE FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH DRY FOR THE
NEAR TERM PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE ADVERTISED WEAKENING COOL FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO ENTER THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS AND WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE...ANY CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER REMAINS SLIM.  WILL
LEAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH...FOR
CONSISTENCY FOR NOW.

THE GFS HAS BEEN THE FURTHEST NORTH DEVELOPING DEEPER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW MOVING CUT OFF 500 MB LOW OVER THE WEEKEND
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. YET...EVEN THE 12Z GFS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
THAN THE 06Z GFS.  WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE THE OUR CWA DRY...WITH
PCPN MENTIONING POPS JUST OFF TO OUR SE. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS MOSTLY
NORTHEAST RATHER THAN SOUTHEAST.

DEW POINTS MAY ACTUALLY DROP IN THAT LOW LEVEL FLOW SATURDAY
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT.

WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH WEEKEND...BUT WITH DRYING THE USUAL
SCATTERING OF BRUSH FIRES FIGURED DURING LATE AFTERNOONS.

SO OVERALL...IF CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...A RELATIVELY
PLEASANT EASTER WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUED WPC THINKING THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. FAIRLY TRANQUIL
PERIOD GENERALLY-SPEAKING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A S/W UPPER TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL REGARDING THAT SYSTEM...BUT YET
BETTER AGREEMENT BRINGING THE SYSTEM ACROSS EITHER MON NIGHT OR TUE
MORNING. AS SUCH...LOWERED POPS FOR MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
MONDAY BEFORE BRINGING IN HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIP MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. CONTINUED TO CAP PRECIP CHANCES AT HIGH CHANCE
WITH THE TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. NO MAJOR HEAT WAVES OR COLD BLASTS ON
THE HORIZON DURING THIS PERIOD. DID WARM TEMPS UP A FAIR AMOUNT FOR
MONDAY...INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S FOR THE LOWLANDS...WITH GREATER
CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WON/T BE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN
AND LOWER TO AROUND 5-10K FEET AFTER 09Z. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS THROUGH 09Z...WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
AFTER 09Z...BUT REMAIN LIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: WINDS COULD BE GUSTIER AT TIMES THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/50/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ/SL
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...SL









000
FXUS61 KRLX 171955
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
350 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/DISSIPATES. STORM SHOULD
REMAIN TO OUR SE ALONG COAST...RESULTING IN DRY/WARM EASTER WEEKEND.
ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. UPPER AIR PATTERN BECOMES SPLIT BY FRIDAY...AS AN UPPER LOW
IN THE SOUTHERN U.S. DEVELOPS AND TREKS EASTWARD...WHILE A COLD FRONT
IN NORTHERN STREAM WILL TREK EAST TOWARDS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
FEATURES WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...KEEPING OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...THUS NO NEED FOR A
FREEZE WARNING ANTICIPATED.

AS FRONT ENTERS SOUTHEAST OHIO ZONES TOWARDS END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...BUT AT
BEST...MAY ONLY SEE SPRINKLES...DUE TO WEAKENING NATURE OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND DRY AIR IN PLACE THAT WILL PREVENT MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...WILL LEAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE IN SOUTHEAST OHIO COUNTIES FOR NOW.

MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE AND MORE CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING UPPER
LOW AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION AND DYNAMICS TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE CWA. AS IT
STANDS RIGHT NOW...BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION FRIDAY
EVENING...IF ABLE TO OCCUR...WOULD BE SOUTHWEST VA AND SOUTHERN WV
MOUNTAIN ZONES. WILL LEAVE FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH DRY FOR THE
NEAR TERM PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE ADVERTISED WEAKENING COOL FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO ENTER THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS AND WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE...ANY CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER REMAINS SLIM.  WILL
LEAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH...FOR
CONSISTENCY FOR NOW.

THE GFS HAS BEEN THE FURTHEST NORTH DEVELOPING DEEPER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW MOVING CUT OFF 500 MB LOW OVER THE WEEKEND
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. YET...EVEN THE 12Z GFS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
THAN THE 06Z GFS.  WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE THE OUR CWA DRY...WITH
PCPN MENTIONING POPS JUST OFF TO OUR SE. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS MOSTLY
NORTHEAST RATHER THAN SOUTHEAST.

DEW POINTS MAY ACTUALLY DROP IN THAT LOW LEVEL FLOW SATURDAY
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT.

WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH WEEKEND...BUT WITH DRYING THE USUAL
SCATTERING OF BRUSH FIRES FIGURED DURING LATE AFTERNOONS.

SO OVERALL...IF CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...A RELATIVELY
PLEASANT EASTER WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUED WPC THINKING THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. FAIRLY TRANQUIL
PERIOD GENERALLY-SPEAKING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A S/W UPPER TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL REGARDING THAT SYSTEM...BUT YET
BETTER AGREEMENT BRINGING THE SYSTEM ACROSS EITHER MON NIGHT OR TUE
MORNING. AS SUCH...LOWERED POPS FOR MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
MONDAY BEFORE BRINGING IN HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIP MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. CONTINUED TO CAP PRECIP CHANCES AT HIGH CHANCE
WITH THE TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. NO MAJOR HEAT WAVES OR COLD BLASTS ON
THE HORIZON DURING THIS PERIOD. DID WARM TEMPS UP A FAIR AMOUNT FOR
MONDAY...INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S FOR THE LOWLANDS...WITH GREATER
CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WON/T BE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN
AND LOWER TO AROUND 5-10K FEET AFTER 09Z. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS THROUGH 09Z...WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
AFTER 09Z...BUT REMAIN LIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: WINDS COULD BE GUSTIER AT TIMES THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/50/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...SL











000
FXUS61 KRLX 171729
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
129 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS NORTHEAST THURSDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. UPPER AIR PATTERN BECOMES SPLIT BY FRIDAY...AS AN UPPER LOW
IN THE SOUTHERN U.S. DEVELOPS AND TREKS EASTWARD...WHILE A COLD FRONT
IN NORTHERN STREAM WILL TREK EAST TOWARDS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
FEATURES WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...KEEPING OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...THUS NO NEED FOR A
FREEZE WARNING ANTICIPATED.

AS FRONT ENTERS SOUTHEAST OHIO ZONES TOWARDS END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...BUT AT
BEST...MAY ONLY SEE SPRINKLES...DUE TO WEAKENING NATURE OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND DRY AIR IN PLACE THAT WILL PREVENT MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...WILL LEAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE IN SOUTHEAST OHIO COUNTIES FOR NOW.

MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE AND MORE CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING UPPER
LOW AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION AND DYNAMICS TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE CWA. AS IT
STANDS RIGHT NOW...BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION FRIDAY
EVENING...IF ABLE TO OCCUR...WOULD BE SOUTHWEST VA AND SOUTHERN WV
MOUNTAIN ZONES. WILL LEAVE FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH DRY FOR THE
NEAR TERM PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ADVERTISED WEAK COOL FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO ENTER THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PATTERN...A WELL DEFINED
SPLIT BECOMES EVEN MORE DEFINED. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE A PORTION OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH DRIVING THE COLD FRONT TOWARD US...WILL
DROP INTO THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW. WITH THE UPPER LOW TO STAY
SOUTH OF THE AREA...MOISTURE INFLOW INTO OUR SYSTEM AND UPPER
DYNAMICS HAVE FURTHER WEAKENED. THE FRONT WILL SO WEAKEN THAT IT
WILL WASH OUT AS IT DROPS INTO CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THUS...NOT MUCH AT ALL EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT COMING INTO
OUR AREA...AND WILL HAVE VERY LOW POPS CONFINED TO NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA...WITH NOT MUCH
COOLING AT ALL FROM THE FRONT. EXPECT SUNSHINE TO HELP BOOST
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY BACK TO AROUND THE SIMILAR 70 DEGREES FORECAST
ON FRIDAY. EVEN WARMER SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70
UNDER MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNSHINE. NIGHTS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...MAINLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY CONTINUED WPC THINKING WITH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. FAIRLY
TRANQUIL FOUR DAYS ON THE WHOLE WITH A PLEASANT WEEKEND IN
STORE...DESPITE A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER SATURDAY. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE MONDAY/TUESDAY PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL
S/W TROUGH AND ASSOC COLD FRONT PUSH ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE OP
GFS QUICKER BY ABOUT 12 HOURS VERSUS THE MOST RECENT ECMWF.
CONTINUED TO CAP POPS AT MID/HIGH CHANCE WITH THAT FEATURE GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY WITH A SLIGHT WEIGHT TO MON NIGHT AND EARLY TUE. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE NEAR-SEASONAL THROUGHOUT...WITH HIGHS FOR THE LOWLANDS
GENERALLY LOW/MID 70S AND MINS RANGING FROM LOWER 40S EARLY IN THE
PERIOD TO THE LOW 50S DURING THE LATER HALF.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN
AND LOWER TO AROUND 5-10K FEET AFTER 09Z. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS THROUGH 09Z...WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
AFTER 09Z...BUT REMAIN LIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: WINDS COULD BE GUSTIER AT TIMES THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/50/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...SL









000
FXUS61 KRLX 171424
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1024 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS NORTHEAST THURSDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SIG WX NIL. HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE A
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STRUGGLE TO
PUSH TO THE EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AS STEERING 500MB REMAINS
SOUTHWESTERLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
SLOW INCREASE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.

850MB TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RECOVER...AND WILL SEE ANOTHER
DAY OF SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE IMPROVEMENT. SHOULD END UP NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE AFTERNOON MAX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ADVERTISED WEAK COOL FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO ENTER THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PATTERN...A WELL DEFINED
SPLIT BECOMES EVEN MORE DEFINED. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE A PORTION OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH DRIVING THE COLD FRONT TOWARD US...WILL
DROP INTO THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW. WITH THE UPPER LOW TO STAY
SOUTH OF THE AREA...MOISTURE INFLOW INTO OUR SYSTEM AND UPPER
DYNAMICS HAVE FURTHER WEAKENED. THE FRONT WILL SO WEAKEN THAT IT
WILL WASH OUT AS IT DROPS INTO CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THUS...NOT MUCH AT ALL EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT COMING INTO
OUR AREA...AND WILL HAVE VERY LOW POPS CONFINED TO NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA...WITH NOT MUCH
COOLING AT ALL FROM THE FRONT. EXPECT SUNSHINE TO HELP BOOST
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY BACK TO AROUND THE SIMILAR 70 DEGREES FORECAST
ON FRIDAY. EVEN WARMER SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70
UNDER MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNSHINE. NIGHTS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...MAINLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY CONTINUED WPC THINKING WITH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. FAIRLY
TRANQUIL FOUR DAYS ON THE WHOLE WITH A PLEASANT WEEKEND IN
STORE...DESPITE A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER SATURDAY. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE MONDAY/TUESDAY PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL
S/W TROUGH AND ASSOC COLD FRONT PUSH ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE OP
GFS QUICKER BY ABOUT 12 HOURS VERSUS THE MOST RECENT ECMWF.
CONTINUED TO CAP POPS AT MID/HIGH CHANCE WITH THAT FEATURE GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY WITH A SLIGHT WEIGHT TO MON NIGHT AND EARLY TUE. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE NEAR-SEASONAL THROUGHOUT...WITH HIGHS FOR THE LOWLANDS
GENERALLY LOW/MID 70S AND MINS RANGING FROM LOWER 40S EARLY IN THE
PERIOD TO THE LOW 50S DURING THE LATER HALF.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CAVU/VFR. CIRRUS OVERSPREADING THE WESTERN ZONES THIS
MORNING...AND WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE CIRRUS INTO
TONIGHT. CEILINGS MAY ALSO LOWER FROM 250 TO 200...BUT NOT ENOUGH
OF A CHANGE TO WARRANT MORE THAN ONE LINERS IN MOST CASES TODAY.

SURFACE FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TODAY UNDER 10KTS EXCEPT FOR
BKW. GUSTS TO 20KTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 19Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE RECORD LOW FOR THE 16TH OF APRIL WAS TIED AT HUNTINGTON WV THIS
MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...SL/26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...ARJ

CLIMATE...26








000
FXUS61 KRLX 171019
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
619 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS NORTHEAST THURSDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
BUMPED UP THE I-64 CORRIDOR HIGHS A NOTCH TODAY. OTHERWISE...NO
MAJOR CHANGES THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SIG WX NIL. HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE A
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STRUGGLE TO
PUSH TO THE EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AS STEERING 500MB REMAINS
SOUTHWESTERLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
SLOW INCREASE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.

850MB TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RECOVER...AND WILL SEE ANOTHER
DAY OF SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE IMPROVEMENT. SHOULD END UP NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE AFTERNOON MAX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ADVERTISED WEAK COOL FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO ENTER THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PATTERN...A WELL DEFINED
SPLIT BECOMES EVEN MORE DEFINED. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE A PORTION OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH DRIVING THE COLD FRONT TOWARD US...WILL
DROP INTO THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW. WITH THE UPPER LOW TO STAY
SOUTH OF THE AREA...MOISTURE INFLOW INTO OUR SYSTEM AND UPPER
DYNAMICS HAVE FURTHER WEAKENED. THE FRONT WILL SO WEAKEN THAT IT
WILL WASH OUT AS IT DROPS INTO CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THUS...NOT MUCH AT ALL EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT COMING INTO
OUR AREA...AND WILL HAVE VERY LOW POPS CONFINED TO NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA...WITH NOT MUCH
COOLING AT ALL FROM THE FRONT. EXPECT SUNSHINE TO HELP BOOST
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY BACK TO AROUND THE SIMILAR 70 DEGREES FORECAST
ON FRIDAY. EVEN WARMER SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70
UNDER MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNSHINE. NIGHTS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...MAINLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY CONTINUED WPC THINKING WITH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. FAIRLY
TRANQUIL FOUR DAYS ON THE WHOLE WITH A PLEASANT WEEKEND IN
STORE...DESPITE A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER SATURDAY. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE MONDAY/TUESDAY PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL
S/W TROUGH AND ASSOC COLD FRONT PUSH ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE OP
GFS QUICKER BY ABOUT 12 HOURS VERSUS THE MOST RECENT ECMWF.
CONTINUED TO CAP POPS AT MID/HIGH CHANCE WITH THAT FEATURE GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY WITH A SLIGHT WEIGHT TO MON NIGHT AND EARLY TUE. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE NEAR-SEASONAL THROUGHOUT...WITH HIGHS FOR THE LOWLANDS
GENERALLY LOW/MID 70S AND MINS RANGING FROM LOWER 40S EARLY IN THE
PERIOD TO THE LOW 50S DURING THE LATER HALF.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CAVU/VFR. CIRRUS OVERSPREADING THE WESTERN ZONES THIS
MORNING...AND WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE CIRRUS INTO
TONIGHT. CEILINGS MAY ALSO LOWER FROM 250 TO 200...BUT NOT ENOUGH
OF A CHANGE TO WARRANT MORE THAN ONE LINERS IN MOST CASES TODAY.

SURFACE FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TODAY UNDER 10KTS EXCEPT FOR
BKW. GUSTS TO 20KTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 19Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE RECORD LOW FOR THE 16TH OF APRIL WAS TIED AT HUNTINGTON WV THIS
MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>032.
OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...ARJ

CLIMATE...26








000
FXUS61 KRLX 170653
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
253 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS NORTHEAST THURSDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SIG WX NIL. HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE A
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STRUGGLE TO
PUSH TO THE EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AS STEERING 500MB REMAINS
SOUTHWESTERLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
SLOW INCREASE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.

850MB TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RECOVER...AND WILL SEE ANOTHER
DAY OF SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE IMPROVEMENT. SHOULD END UP NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE AFTERNOON MAX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ADVERTISED WEAK COOL FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO ENTER THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PATTERN...A WELL DEFINED
SPLIT BECOMES EVEN MORE DEFINED. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE A PORTION OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH DRIVING THE COLD FRONT TOWARD US...WILL
DROP INTO THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW. WITH THE UPPER LOW TO STAY
SOUTH OF THE AREA...MOISTURE INFLOW INTO OUR SYSTEM AND UPPER
DYNAMICS HAVE FURTHER WEAKENED. THE FRONT WILL SO WEAKEN THAT IT
WILL WASH OUT AS IT DROPS INTO CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THUS...NOT MUCH AT ALL EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT COMING INTO
OUR AREA...AND WILL HAVE VERY LOW POPS CONFINED TO NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA...WITH NOT MUCH
COOLING AT ALL FROM THE FRONT. EXPECT SUNSHINE TO HELP BOOST
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY BACK TO AROUND THE SIMILAR 70 DEGREES FORECAST
ON FRIDAY. EVEN WARMER SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70
UNDER MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNSHINE. NIGHTS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...MAINLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY CONTINUED WPC THINKING WITH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. FAIRLY
TRANQUIL FOUR DAYS ON THE WHOLE WITH A PLEASANT WEEKEND IN
STORE...DESPITE A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER SATURDAY. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE MONDAY/TUESDAY PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL
S/W TROUGH AND ASSOC COLD FRONT PUSH ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE OP
GFS QUICKER BY ABOUT 12 HOURS VERSUS THE MOST RECENT ECMWF.
CONTINUED TO CAP POPS AT MID/HIGH CHANCE WITH THAT FEATURE GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY WITH A SLIGHT WEIGHT TO MON NIGHT AND EARLY TUE. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE NEAR-SEASONAL THROUGHOUT...WITH HIGHS FOR THE LOWLANDS
GENERALLY LOW/MID 70S AND MINS RANGING FROM LOWER 40S EARLY IN THE
PERIOD TO THE LOW 50S DURING THE LATER HALF.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GUST OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 25KTS. OVER THE LOWLANDS...THESE WINDS WILL BE
UNDER 10KTS.

ONLY CIRRUS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD THAT WILL THICKEN INTO 12Z
FRIDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              THU 04/17/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE RECORD LOW FOR THE 16TH OF APRIL WAS TIED AT HUNTINGTON WV THIS
MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>032.
OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...ARJ

CLIMATE...26








000
FXUS61 KRLX 170533
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
133 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THURSDAY. WARMER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
NO CHANGES FOR THIS ISSUANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE...AND DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA.
EXPECTING ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS DROPPING DOWN TO OR BELOW
FREEZING ONCE AGAIN. HILL TOP LOCATIONS PROBABLY WONT GET AS COLD
TONIGHT DUE TO NIGHTTIME INVERSION...AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT PUFFS OF
WIND. KEPT A RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT IN THE GRIDS FOR TONIGHTS LOWS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY...WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. WITH THE DRY
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...EXPECT A LARGE DIURNAL SWING. WILL BE
ANOTHER DAY OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...BUT NOT EXPECTING AN
ENHANCED FIRE THREAT DUE TO RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AOB 925 MB INCREASES ON SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.  INCREASED CLOUDS...
BUT NO PRECIPITATION...FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS INTO
THE UPPER GREENBRIER RIVER VALLEY.  THESE CLOUDS MAKE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE A TOUGH FORECAST THERE.

THAT SOUTHEAST FLOW BREAKS DOWN DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

WEAK COLD FRONT TRIES TO OOZE SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR CWA OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY NIGHT.  WE CONTINUE MENTIONING JUST 20 AND 30 POPS WITH THAT
FEATURE...WITH NO THUNDER...FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WEST...INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT EAST.

ECMWF HAS A BIT MORE COOLING AT 850 MBS INTO NORTHERN COUNTIES ON
SATURDAY...BUT STILL NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE.

THE LIGHT WINDS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD KEEP THE FIRE DANGER
FROM GETTING TOO HIGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY CONTINUED WPC THINKING WITH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. FAIRLY
TRANQUIL FOUR DAYS ON THE WHOLE WITH A PLEASANT WEEKEND IN
STORE...DESPITE A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER SATURDAY. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE MONDAY/TUESDAY PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL
S/W TROUGH AND ASSOC COLD FRONT PUSH ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE OP
GFS QUICKER BY ABOUT 12 HOURS VERSUS THE MOST RECENT ECMWF.
CONTINUED TO CAP POPS AT MID/HIGH CHANCE WITH THAT FEATURE GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY WITH A SLIGHT WEIGHT TO MON NIGHT AND EARLY TUE. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE NEAR-SEASONAL THROUGHOUT...WITH HIGHS FOR THE LOWLANDS
GENERALLY LOW/MID 70S AND MINS RANGING FROM LOWER 40S EARLY IN THE
PERIOD TO THE LOW 50S DURING THE LATER HALF.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GUST OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 25KTS. OVER THE LOWLANDS...THESE WINDS WILL BE
UNDER 10KTS.

ONLY CIRRUS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD THAT WILL THICKEN INTO 12Z
FRIDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              THU 04/17/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE RECORD LOW FOR THE 16TH OF APRIL WAS TIED AT HUNTINGTON WV THIS
MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>032.
OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/50/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ/SL
SHORT TERM...KTB/26
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...ARJ

CLIMATE...26








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