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000
FXUS61 KRLX 281845
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
245 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LINGERS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MORE CONVECTION
EXPECTED. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE FRIDAY BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERS. ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS PRECIPITATION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1730Z...FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR MGW ON WEST TO NORTH OF
PKB AND SOUTH OF ZZV TO NORTH OF CVG.  THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SAG
SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE...SO WE STILL EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM SOUTH OF THE FRONT. SO THE LIKELY POPS WE
INSERTED THIS MORNING...SHOULD STILL BE ON TRACK FOR THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING.  DID ADJUST HIGHER POPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH INTO
OUR SOUTHERN WV COUNTIES TOO.

DUE TO THE PAST RAINS OF 3 DAYS...AFTER COORDINATING WITH OUR
HYDROLOGIST...WE WILL POST A SHORT TERM FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN THOSE WETTEST COUNTIES. STILL
CONCERNED WITH LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS OVER THE WET AREAS. OF
COURSE...WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL AROUND 30 THSD FT PER THE
RAP...WE ARE ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERE STORMS TOO.

AS THAT FRONT SAGS SOUTH...LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS FIGURES ON FRIDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA...AS COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ADVECTED SOUTH AS 925 MB FLOW
TURNS NW.  HELD ONTO SOME 20 TO 40 POPS IN OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES.

TRIED TO LIFT CEILINGS 15 TO 18Z FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT THE
DRY WEATHER IS FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER OHIO
RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY DRIVING A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE CWA
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW WILL PASS THE CWA ON
SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT SLIDING THROUGH. SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
MODELS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...SO OVERALL TIMING OF
HIGHEST POPS MAY VARY...BUT HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY. PWATS SURGE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN WE WILL ALSO GET A POOLING OF
PWATS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PUSHING THEM UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES
AGAIN. WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL PATTERNS...AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN
HIT SEVERAL TIMES OVER THE PAST WEEK WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR
POTENTIAL WATER CONCERNS. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO. SHOULD GET
SOME INSTABILITY SUNDAY...BUT THINK CLOUDS WILL LIMIT IT SOME.
HOWEVER...WITH SHEAR OF 35-45KTS...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE WELL SOUTH AND EAST BY MONDAY...BUT MODELS
BRING WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH...SO HAVE SHOWERS LINGERING.
THE 00Z ECMWF THEN SHOWS A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT BULGING IT BACK
NORTH TUESDAY INTO SOUTHEASTERN CWA. THE 12Z ECMWF IS EVEN MORE
AGGRESSIVE SURGING THE FRONT BACK NORTH WITH THIS WAVE...AND WOULD
SPELL PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER GFS KEEPS THE ENTIRE
THING FARTHER SOUTH. WENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW
UNTIL THIS BECOMES BETTER RESOLVED. OTHERWISE REMAINED CLOSE TO
WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM 18Z TO 21Z
SOUTH OF THE FRONT.  SO HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN THE
CONVECTION...THAT CAN NOT BE ENTIRELY SHOWN IN THE POINT TAFS.  WILL
PUT TSTMS IN VCNTY IN THE TAFS...UNTIL WE SEE THE STORMS THREATENING
THE TERMINAL.  EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL 30 TO 34 THSD...FREEZING LEVEL
AROUND 11 THSD.  COULD EASILY SEE SOME SEVERE...AND LOCALIZED
DOWNPOURS.

HAVE LOCAL IFR IN THUNDERSTORMS...WITH CEILINGS MOSTLY 2 TO 3 THSD
FT BKN TO OVC.

00Z TO 06Z...THUNDERSTORMS WANE BUT SHOWERS LINGER.  LOW CEILINGS
FORMING.

06Z TO 14Z...FIGURING MORE WIDESPREAD STRATUS...AND THUS FORECASTING
MORE 2 TO 4 MILES IN FOG...INSTEAD OF THE AOB 1 MILE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE LOW CEILINGS FORMING OVERNIGHT AND
LOWER VSBY MAY VARY.  RAIN INDUCED FOG COULD FORM EARLIER THAN
FORECAST TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-026>030-037>039-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ075-076-
     083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-
     105.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...KTB




000
FXUS61 KRLX 281753
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
155 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LINGERS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MORE CONVECTION
EXPECTED. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE FRIDAY BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERS. ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS PRECIPITATION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1730Z...FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR MGW ON WEST TO NORTH OF
PKB AND SOUTH OF ZZV TO NORTH OF CVG.  THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SAG
SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE...SO WE STILL EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM SOUTH OF THE FRONT. SO THE LIKELY POPS WE
INSERTED THIS MORNING...SHOULD STILL BE ON TRACK FOR THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING.  DID ADJUST HIGHER POPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH INTO
OUR SOUTHERN WV COUNTIES TOO.

DUE TO THE PAST RAINS OF 3 DAYS...AFTER COORDINATING WITH OUR
HYDROLOGIST...WE WILL LIKELY POST A SHORT TERM FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN THOSE WETTEST COUNTIES. STILL
CONCERNED WITH LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS OVER THE WET AREAS. OF
COURSE...WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL AROUND 30 THSD FT ON THE RAP...WE
ARE ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERE STORMS TOO.

AS THAT FRONT SAGS SOUTH...LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS FIGURES ON FRIDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA...AS COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ADVECTED SOUTH AS 925 MB FLOW
TURNS NW.  HELD ONTO SOME 20 TO 40 POPS IN OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES.

TRIED TO LIFT CEILINGS 15 TO 18Z FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS MOVING IN FOR FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL REMOVE POPS FOR ALL BUT NORTHEASTERN WV.

MODELS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM. WILL PULL
HIGHER POPS FORWARD INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY TO START THE PERIOD AS YET ANOTHER
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE PUSHES IN. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING ANOTHER
COPIOUS ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE LOW IS
ONLY PROGGED TO BE NEAR STANDARD ATMOSPHERE MSLP...BUT DECENT
MOISTURE INFLOW ON 40 KTS MID LEVEL FLOW...AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
COULD LEAD TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL.

MODELS CONCUR ON THE WEATHER SETTLING DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATES...SENDING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WAS A
BIT LEERY IN TRENDING DRIER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND
THE 12Z ECMWF SURE ENOUGH THROWS A MONKEY WRENCH BACK INTO THE
FORECAST...WITH YET ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ON TUESDAY...AND
THE NORTHERN STREAM NOT BECOMING A FACTOR UNTIL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND BLENDS...A LITTLE
LOWER ESPECIALLY ON LOWS EARLY TO MID WEEK...OTHERWISE CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...MODEL VARIATION ON THE POSITION OF THE
FRONT AND WAVES ALONG IT COULD LEAD TO LARGE BUST POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM 18Z TO 21Z
SOUTH OF THE FRONT.  SO HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN THE
CONVECTION...THAT CAN NOT BE ENTIRELY SHOWN IN THE POINT TAFS.  WILL
PUT TSTMS IN VCNTY IN THE TAFS...UNTIL WE SEE THE STORMS THREATENING
THE TERMINAL.  EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL 30 TO 34 THSD...FREEZING LEVEL
AROUND 11 THSD.  COULD EASILY SEE SOME SEVERE...AND LOCALIZED
DOWNPOURS.

HAVE LOCAL IFR IN THUNDERSTORMS...WITH CEILINGS MOSTLY 2 TO 3 THSD
FT BKN TO OVC.

00Z TO 06Z...THUNDERSTORMS WANE BUT SHOWERS LINGER.  LOW CEILINGS
FORMING.

06Z TO 14Z...FIGURING MORE WIDESPREAD STRATUS...AND THUS FORECASTING
MORE 2 TO 4 MILES IN FOG...INSTEAD OF THE AOB 1 MILE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE LOW CEILINGS FORMING OVERNIGHT AND
LOWER VSBY MAY VARY.  RAIN INDUCED FOG COULD FORM EARLIER THAN
FORECAST TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
   M

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE GAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...KTB/26




000
FXUS61 KRLX 281503
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1055 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LINGERS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MORE CONVECTION
EXPECTED. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE FRIDAY BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERS. ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS PRECIPITATION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1445Z...HAVE ANALYZED SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR
FROM ATHENS TO PARKERSBURG/MARIETTA...CLARKSBURG...GRAFTON.
SO A LARGE NORTH TO SOUTH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EXPECTED LATE
AFTERNOON BETWEEN SAY PIT AND CRW.  WITH THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
AND THE FORECAST MODEL INSTABILITY DEVELOPING...EXPECT NEW ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION TO FORM 18Z TO 21Z AND LINGERING INTO THIS EVENING.
DILEMNA IS HOW FAR SOUTH... THINKING THE HTS-CRW-BKW CORRIDOR MAY BE
ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS MORE ENHANCED COVERAGE.  SO WILL DRAW
SOME LIKELY POPS FROM HTS-CRW-BKW ON NORTH TOWARD THE FRONT FOR 20Z
INTO THIS EVENING...LINGERING THE LONGEST ALONG THE FRONT IN
NORTHERN COUNTIES.

DUE TO THE PAST RAINS OF 3 DAYS...AFTER COORDINATING WITH OUR
HYDROLOGIST...WE WILL BE CONSIDERING A SHORT TERM FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN THOSE WETTEST COUNTIES. WE
WANT TO SEE THE NEW INITIATION/CONVECTION TRENDS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. OF COURSE...WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL AROUND 30 THSD FT ON
THE RAP...COULD SEE SOME SEVERE STORMS TOO.

LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS FIGURES ON FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR
EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...AS COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE ADVECTED SOUTH AS 925 MB FLOW TURNS NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS MOVING IN FOR FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL REMOVE POPS FOR ALL BUT NORTHEASTERN WV.

MODELS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM. WILL PULL
HIGHER POPS FORWARD INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY TO START THE PERIOD AS YET ANOTHER
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE PUSHES IN. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING ANOTHER
COPIOUS ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE LOW IS
ONLY PROGGED TO BE NEAR STANDARD ATMOSPHERE MSLP...BUT DECENT
MOISTURE INFLOW ON 40 KTS MID LEVEL FLOW...AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
COULD LEAD TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL.

MODELS CONCUR ON THE WEATHER SETTLING DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATES...SENDING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WAS A
BIT LEERY IN TRENDING DRIER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND
THE 12Z ECMWF SURE ENOUGH THROWS A MONKEY WRENCH BACK INTO THE
FORECAST...WITH YET ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ON TUESDAY...AND
THE NORTHERN STREAM NOT BECOMING A FACTOR UNTIL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND BLENDS...A LITTLE
LOWER ESPECIALLY ON LOWS EARLY TO MID WEEK...OTHERWISE CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...MODEL VARIATION ON THE POSITION OF THE
FRONT AND WAVES ALONG IT COULD LEAD TO LARGE BUST POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PUT A LOT OF WEIGHT ON HRRR GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE NEAR
TERM...AS CONDITIONS HAVE EVOLVED OVERNIGHT.

NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME GETTING OUT OF
MVFR STRATUS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...AND EVEN INTO TONIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER IN THESE AREAS WITH A COLD FRONT
STALLING FROM CENTRAL OHIO INTO SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...AND
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.

EXPECTING MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY...SCATTERED IN
COVERAGE. NO PREVAILING FOR THESE STORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING EXCEPT FOR CKB AND EKN WHERE THE HIGHER CHANCES
EXIST.

HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AFTER 03Z...SOUTHERN TERMINALS MAY
CLEAR WHICH COULD ALLOW VALLEY FOG TO FORM LATE. THIS IS REFLECTED
WITH DETERIORATING VISIBILITIES LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION...AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS COULD VARY FROM CURRENT FORECAST. CLEARING/FOG MAY
VARY LATE TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT.
IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/26
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS61 KRLX 281041
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
641 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LINGERS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MORE CONVECTION
EXPECTED. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS PRECIPITATION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE...
WAVES OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE CWA...BUT IS LARGELY
LIGHT IN NATURE. AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS ARE HANDLING THE WATER OK
AT THIS HOUR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WHILE THE BETTER FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...ATMOSPHERE
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PRIMED FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT AND LINGERING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE BULK OF THE OHIO
VALLEY. THAT...AND OLD BOUNDARIES FROM THE DECAYING CONVECTION
MOVING THROUGH...SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH MEANS FOR INITIATION FOR
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE QUESTION
IS THE COVERAGE/FREQUENCY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

INFLATED NAM DEWPOINTS GIVE QUITE A BIT OF SURFACE BASED CAPE
TODAY DURING MAX HEATING HOURS IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. EVEN
IF THOSE VALUES ARE ON THE HIGH SIDE...INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE
AN ISSUE/LIMITING FACTOR TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY.

PWATS SHOULD COME DOWN GIVEN THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRYING IN THE
FORECAST...BELOW 1 INCH...BUT HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
FREEZING LEVEL DROPS TO AROUND 10KFT TODAY...ADDING TO A HAIL
THREAT. DRY LEVELS ALOFT ADD TO THE WIND GUST POTENTIAL WITH
STORMS.

TURNING TO THE FLOODING THREAT...CWA HAS SEEN PLENTY OF RAIN TO GO
AROUND OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...SO THIS NEEDS TO BE WATCHED
INTO THE SHORT TERM. NOT PLANNING ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
NOW...AS MOVING CONVECTION SHOULD NOT CAUSE ISSUES. HOWEVER...ANY
SORT OF CELL TRAINING OR MULTIPLE HITS WILL NOT TAKE LONG TO
CREATE ISSUES. STEERING FLOW OF 30-40 KTS SHOULD HELP MOVE
CONVECTION IN AND OUT OF AREAS FAIRLY EFFICIENTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS MOVING IN FOR FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL REMOVE POPS FOR ALL BUT NORTHEASTERN WV.

MODELS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM. WILL PULL
HIGHER POPS FORWARD INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY TO START THE PERIOD AS YET ANOTHER
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE PUSHES IN. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING ANOTHER
COPIOUS ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE LOW IS
ONLY PROGGED TO BE NEAR STANDARD ATMOSPHERE MSLP...BUT DECENT
MOISTURE INFLOW ON 40 KTS MID LEVEL FLOW...AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
COULD LEAD TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL.

MODELS CONCUR ON THE WEATHER SETTLING DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATES...SENDING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WAS A
BIT LEERY IN TRENDING DRIER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND
THE 12Z ECMWF SURE ENOUGH THROWS A MONKEY WRENCH BACK INTO THE
FORECAST...WITH YET ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ON TUESDAY...AND
THE NORTHERN STREAM NOT BECOMING A FACTOR UNTIL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND BLENDS...A LITTLE
LOWER ESPECIALLY ON LOWS EARLY TO MID WEEK...OTHERWISE CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...MODEL VARIATION ON THE POSITION OF THE
FRONT AND WAVES ALONG IT COULD LEAD TO LARGE BUST POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PUT A LOT OF WEIGHT ON HRRR GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE NEAR
TERM...AS CONDITIONS HAVE EVOLVED OVERNIGHT.

NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME GETTING OUT OF
MVFR STRATUS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...AND EVEN INTO TONIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER IN THESE AREAS WITH A COLD FRONT
STALLING FROM CENTRAL OHIO INTO SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...AND
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.

EXPECTING MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY...SCATTERED IN
COVERAGE. NO PREVAILING FOR THESE STORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING EXCEPT FOR CKB AND EKN WHERE THE HIGHER CHANCES
EXIST.

HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AFTER 03Z...SOUTHERN TERMINALS MAY
CLEAR WHICH COULD ALLOW VALLEY FOG TO FORM LATE. THIS IS REFLECTED
WITH DETERIORATING VISIBILITIES LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION...AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS COULD VARY FROM CURRENT FORECAST. CLEARING/FOG MAY
VARY LATE TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT.
IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS61 KRLX 280735
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
328 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LINGERS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MORE CONVECTION
EXPECTED. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS PRECIPITATION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WHILE THE BETTER FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...ATMOSPHERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
PRIMED FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND
LINGERING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE BULK OF THE OHIO VALLEY.
THAT...AND OLD BOUNDARIES FROM THE DECAYING CONVECTION MOVING
THROUGH...SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH MEANS FOR INITIATION FOR
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE QUESTION
IS THE COVERAGE/FREQUENCY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

INFLATED NAM DEWPOINTS GIVE QUITE A BIT OF SURFACE BASED CAPE
TODAY DURING MAX HEATING HOURS IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. EVEN
IF THOSE VALUES ARE ON THE HIGH SIDE...INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE
AN ISSUE/LIMITING FACTOR TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY.

PWATS SHOULD COME DOWN GIVEN THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRYING IN THE
FORECAST...BELOW 1 INCH...BUT HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
FREEZING LEVEL DROPS TO AROUND 10KFT TODAY...ADDING TO A HAIL
THREAT. DRY LEVELS ALOFT ADD TO THE WIND GUST POTENTIAL WITH
STORMS.

TURNING TO THE FLOODING THREAT...CWA HAS SEEN PLENTY OF RAIN TO GO
AROUND OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...SO THIS NEEDS TO BE WATCHED
INTO THE SHORT TERM. NOT PLANNING ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
NOW...AS MOVING CONVECTION SHOULD NOT CAUSE ISSUES. HOWEVER...ANY
SORT OF CELL TRAINING OR MULTIPLE HITS WILL NOT TAKE LONG TO
CREATE ISSUES. STEERING FLOW OF 30-40 KTS SHOULD HELP MOVE
CONVECTION IN AND OUT OF AREAS FAIRLY EFFICIENTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS MOVING IN FOR FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL REMOVE POPS FOR ALL BUT NORTHEASTERN WV.

MODELS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM. WILL PULL
HIGHER POPS FORWARD INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY TO START THE PERIOD AS YET ANOTHER
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE PUSHES IN. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING ANOTHER
COPIOUS ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE LOW IS
ONLY PROGGED TO BE NEAR STANDARD ATMOSPHERE MSLP...BUT DECENT
MOISTURE INFLOW ON 40 KTS MID LEVEL FLOW...AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
COULD LEAD TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL.

MODELS CONCUR ON THE WEATHER SETTLING DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATES...SENDING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WAS A
BIT LEERY IN TRENDING DRIER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND
THE 12Z ECMWF SURE ENOUGH THROWS A MONKEY WRENCH BACK INTO THE
FORECAST...WITH YET ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ON TUESDAY...AND
THE NORTHERN STREAM NOT BECOMING A FACTOR UNTIL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND BLENDS...A LITTLE
LOWER ESPECIALLY ON LOWS EARLY TO MID WEEK...OTHERWISE CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...MODEL VARIATION ON THE POSITION OF THE
FRONT AND WAVES ALONG IT COULD LEAD TO LARGE BUST POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DECAYING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS NOW PUSHING INTO THE NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY REGION TOWARDS HTS...AND A LEADING BATCH OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY INTO
THE COAL FIELDS TOWARDS CRW.

CRW...THINKING IS THAT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY VISIBLE ON RADAR
IMAGERY AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BRING THE
VISIBILITIES FROM IFR TO MVFR WITH A MODEST 5 TO 10 KT
WIND...LIKELY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. ONLY USING
VCTS GIVEN THE OVERALL DECAYING NATURE OF THE CONVECTION TONIGHT.

OVERALL...THE CONVECTIVE TREND CONTINUES TODAY...BUT THE BETTER
FORCING PUSHES NORTH OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING...TAKING THE
HIGHEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION...AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS COULD VARY FROM CURRENT FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              THU 04/28/16
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    L    L    M    M    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT.
IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS61 KRLX 280648
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
248 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LINGERS THROUGH TONIGHT. MORE CONVECTION
EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WHILE THE BETTER FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...ATMOSPHERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
PRIMED FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND
LINGERING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE BULK OF THE OHIO VALLEY.
THAT...AND OLD BOUNDARIES FROM THE DECAYING CONVECTION MOVING
THROUGH...SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH MEANS FOR INITIATION FOR
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE QUESTION
IS THE COVERAGE/FREQUENCY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

INFLATED NAM DEWPOINTS GIVE QUITE A BIT OF SURFACE BASED CAPE
TODAY DURING MAX HEATING HOURS IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. EVEN
IF THOSE VALUES ARE ON THE HIGH SIDE...INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE
AN ISSUE/LIMITING FACTOR TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY.

PWATS SHOULD COME DOWN GIVEN THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRYING IN THE
FORECAST...BELOW 1 INCH...BUT HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
FREEZING LEVEL DROPS TO AROUND 10KFT TODAY...ADDING TO A HAIL
THREAT. DRY LEVELS ALOFT ADD TO THE WIND GUST POTENTIAL WITH
STORMS.

TURNING TO THE FLOODING THREAT...CWA HAS SEEN PLENTY OF RAIN TO GO
AROUND OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...SO THIS NEEDS TO BE WATCHED
INTO THE SHORT TERM. NOT PLANNING ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
NOW...AS MOVING CONVECTION SHOULD NOT CAUSE ISSUES. HOWEVER...ANY
SORT OF CELL TRAINING OR MULTIPLE HITS WILL NOT TAKE LONG TO
CREATE ISSUES. STEERING FLOW OF 30-40 KTS SHOULD HELP MOVE
CONVECTION IN AND OUT OF AREAS FAIRLY EFFICIENTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL MODELS SHOW A FINAL WAVE SLIDING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING IN THE REGION MOST OF
THE WEEK. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THIS. THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION OF THE NAM EVEN SHOWS A DECENT VORT MAX CROSSING
DURING THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LINGERING THE LONGEST ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES OF WV. SO...MUCH OF FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT LOOKS DRY...BEFORE MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY
AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SPED UP POPS
WITH THIS FEATURE PRETTY GOOD...AND MAY EVEN STILL BE A LITTLE SLOW
BASED ON 12Z MODEL RUNS. MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. BIGGEST CHANGE WAS TO GO A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH CLOUDS ALREADY ON THE INCREASE BY THE PREDAWN HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY TO START THE PERIOD AS YET ANOTHER
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE PUSHES IN. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING ANOTHER
COPIOUS ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE LOW IS
ONLY PROGGED TO BE NEAR STANDARD ATMOSPHERE MSLP...BUT DECENT
MOISTURE INFLOW ON 40 KTS MID LEVEL FLOW...AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
COULD LEAD TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL.

MODELS CONCUR ON THE WEATHER SETTLING DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATES...SENDING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WAS A
BIT LEERY IN TRENDING DRIER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND
THE 12Z ECMWF SURE ENOUGH THROWS A MONKEY WRENCH BACK INTO THE
FORECAST...WITH YET ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ON TUESDAY...AND
THE NORTHERN STREAM NOT BECOMING A FACTOR UNTIL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND BLENDS...A LITTLE
LOWER ESPECIALLY ON LOWS EARLY TO MID WEEK...OTHERWISE CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...MODEL VARIATION ON THE POSITION OF THE
FRONT AND WAVES ALONG IT COULD LEAD TO LARGE BUST POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DECAYING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS NOW PUSHING INTO THE NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY REGION TOWARDS HTS...AND A LEADING BATCH OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY INTO
THE COAL FIELDS TOWARDS CRW.

CRW...THINKING IS THAT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY VISIBLE ON RADAR
IMAGERY AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BRING THE
VISIBILITIES FROM IFR TO MVFR WITH A MODEST 5 TO 10 KT
WIND...LIKELY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. ONLY USING
VCTS GIVEN THE OVERALL DECAYING NATURE OF THE CONVECTION TONIGHT.

OVERALL...THE CONVECTIVE TREND CONTINUES TODAY...BUT THE BETTER
FORCING PUSHES NORTH OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING...TAKING THE
HIGHEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION...AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS COULD VARY FROM CURRENT FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              THU 04/28/16
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    L    L    M    M    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/MZ/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS61 KRLX 280555
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
155 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
FRONT STALLED NORTHERN KENTUCKY TO CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA LIFTS
BACK NORTH OVERNIGHT...THEN WAFFLES BACK/FORTH IN OUR VICINITY
THROUGH FRIDAY...PROVIDING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
TWEAKED POP GRIDS A BIT...KEEPING HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
THIS EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. KEEPING
AN EYE ON TRENDS/PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THIS EVENING. OFFICE
RECEIVED ABOUT 0.25 INCHES IN A 15-20 MINUTE PERIOD THIS EVENING.
A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT COUNTIES TO OUR NORTH AND EAST THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...WHERE HEAVIER RAINS FELL YESTERDAY. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR...AND ISSUE ANY WATER HEADLINES AS DEEM NECESSARY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
AS OF 18Z...STALLED SHALLOW SURFACE FRONT NEAR HTS-CRW TO N OF
BKW. DIFFICULT POP AND QPF FORECAST TO SAY THE LEAST. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE...AT 18Z...TO GO WITH ANY WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD WATCH
OVERNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT CONVECTION TO ALIGN WITH THE FLOW LIKE
YESTERDAY...BUT STILL HAVE LOCALIZED PROBLEMS. SO IF THESE
DOWNPOURS HIT THE WETTER AREAS FROM LAST NIGHT...COULD SEE
FLOODING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE FFA FOR
TONIGHT.

WILL INSERT SOME HEAVY RAIN FOR OVERNIGHT...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
INCREASES TO AROUND 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES...BEFORE TRENDING DOWN AGAIN
LATE THURSDAY.

THINKING SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE FRONT
AND SOUTH.  THEN THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES 00Z TO 06Z
WITH STEERING FLOW AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKING AHEAD OF IT.  12Z MODEL
SOLUTIONS SEEM A BIT SLOW...COMPARED TO THE 18Z RADAR...LIFTING THE
DISTURBANCE NORTHEAST.

SO MORE DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...ESPECIALLY
IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES.

WILL BASE FORECAST ON THE FRONT LIFTING TOWARD THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR
BY 12Z THURSDAY.  AS A RESULT...WILL INCREASE MAX TEMPERATURE A BIT
IN THE NORTH ON THURSDAY...BUT A SHARP GRADIENT AS YOU VENTURE
FURTHER NORTH.  HAVE POPS DECREASING IN THE MORNING AS THE MID LEVEL
SUPPORT PULLS NORTH.

MORE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...COMPARED TO
TODAY...OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES DESPITE THE LOWER
PRECIPITABLE WATER.  SO DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD REFIRE...WITH
POSSIBLE SEVERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL MODELS SHOW A FINAL WAVE SLIDING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING IN THE REGION MOST OF
THE WEEK. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THIS. THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION OF THE NAM EVEN SHOWS A DECENT VORT MAX CROSSING
DURING THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LINGERING THE LONGEST ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES OF WV. SO...MUCH OF FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT LOOKS DRY...BEFORE MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY
AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SPED UP POPS
WITH THIS FEATURE PRETTY GOOD...AND MAY EVEN STILL BE A LITTLE SLOW
BASED ON 12Z MODEL RUNS. MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. BIGGEST CHANGE WAS TO GO A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH CLOUDS ALREADY ON THE INCREASE BY THE PREDAWN HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY TO START THE PERIOD AS YET ANOTHER
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE PUSHES IN. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING ANOTHER
COPIOUS ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE LOW IS
ONLY PROGGED TO BE NEAR STANDARD ATMOSPHERE MSLP...BUT DECENT
MOISTURE INFLOW ON 40 KTS MID LEVEL FLOW...AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
COULD LEAD TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL.

MODELS CONCUR ON THE WEATHER SETTLING DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATES...SENDING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WAS A
BIT LEERY IN TRENDING DRIER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND
THE 12Z ECMWF SURE ENOUGH THROWS A MONKEY WRENCH BACK INTO THE
FORECAST...WITH YET ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ON TUESDAY...AND
THE NORTHERN STREAM NOT BECOMING A FACTOR UNTIL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND BLENDS...A LITTLE
LOWER ESPECIALLY ON LOWS EARLY TO MID WEEK...OTHERWISE CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...MODEL VARIATION ON THE POSITION OF THE
FRONT AND WAVES ALONG IT COULD LEAD TO LARGE BUST POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DECAYING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS NOW PUSHING INTO THE NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY REGION TOWARDS HTS...AND A LEADING BATCH OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY INTO
THE COAL FIELDS TOWARDS CRW.

CRW...THINKING IS THAT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY VISIBLE ON RADAR
IMAGERY AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BRING THE
VISIBILITIES FROM IFR TO MVFR WITH A MODEST 5 TO 10 KT
WIND...LIKELY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. ONLY USING
VCTS GIVEN THE OVERALL DECAYING NATURE OF THE CONVECTION TONIGHT.

OVERALL...THE CONVECTIVE TREND CONTINUES TODAY...BUT THE BETTER
FORCING PUSHES NORTH OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING...TAKING THE
HIGHEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION...AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS COULD VARY FROM CURRENT FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              THU 04/28/16
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    L    L    M    M    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/SL
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS61 KRLX 272333
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
733 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
FRONT STALLED NORTHERN KENTUCKY TO CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA LIFTS
BACK NORTH OVERNIGHT...THEN WAFFLES BACK/FORTH IN OUR VICINITY
THROUGH FRIDAY...PROVIDING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
545 PM UPDATE...TWEAKED POP GRIDS A BIT...KEEPING HIGHER POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. KEEPING AN EYE ON TRENDS/PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THIS
EVENING. OFFICE RECEIVED ABOUT 0.25 INCHES IN A 15-20 MINUTE
PERIOD THIS EVENING. A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT COUNTIES TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHERE HEAVIER RAINS FELL
YESTERDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...AND ISSUE ANY WATER
HEADLINES AS DEEM NECESSARY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
AS OF 18Z...STALLED SHALLOW SURFACE FRONT NEAR HTS-CRW TO N OF
BKW. DIFFICULT POP AND QPF FORECAST TO SAY THE LEAST. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE...AT 18Z...TO GO WITH ANY WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD WATCH
OVERNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT CONVECTION TO ALIGN WITH THE FLOW LIKE
YESTERDAY...BUT STILL HAVE LOCALIZED PROBLEMS. SO IF THESE
DOWNPOURS HIT THE WETTER AREAS FROM LAST NIGHT...COULD SEE
FLOODING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE FFA FOR
TONIGHT.

WILL INSERT SOME HEAVY RAIN FOR OVERNIGHT...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
INCREASES TO AROUND 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES...BEFORE TRENDING DOWN AGAIN
LATE THURSDAY.

THINKING SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE FRONT
AND SOUTH.  THEN THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES 00Z TO 06Z
WITH STEERING FLOW AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKING AHEAD OF IT.  12Z MODEL
SOLUTIONS SEEM A BIT SLOW...COMPARED TO THE 18Z RADAR...LIFTING THE
DISTURBANCE NORTHEAST.

SO MORE DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...ESPECIALLY
IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES.

WILL BASE FORECAST ON THE FRONT LIFTING TOWARD THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR
BY 12Z THURSDAY.  AS A RESULT...WILL INCREASE MAX TEMPERATURE A BIT
IN THE NORTH ON THURSDAY...BUT A SHARP GRADIENT AS YOU VENTURE
FURTHER NORTH.  HAVE POPS DECREASING IN THE MORNING AS THE MID LEVEL
SUPPORT PULLS NORTH.

MORE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...COMPARED TO
TODAY...OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES DESPITE THE LOWER
PRECIPITABLE WATER.  SO DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD REFIRE...WITH
POSSIBLE SEVERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL MODELS SHOW A FINAL WAVE SLIDING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING IN THE REGION MOST OF
THE WEEK. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THIS. THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION OF THE NAM EVEN SHOWS A DECENT VORT MAX CROSSING
DURING THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LINGERING THE LONGEST ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES OF WV. SO...MUCH OF FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT LOOKS DRY...BEFORE MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY
AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SPED UP POPS
WITH THIS FEATURE PRETTY GOOD...AND MAY EVEN STILL BE A LITTLE SLOW
BASED ON 12Z MODEL RUNS. MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. BIGGEST CHANGE WAS TO GO A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH CLOUDS ALREADY ON THE INCREASE BY THE PREDAWN HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY TO START THE PERIOD AS YET ANOTHER
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE PUSHES IN. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING ANOTHER
COPIOUS ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE LOW IS
ONLY PROGGED TO BE NEAR STANDARD ATMOSPHERE MSLP...BUT DECENT
MOISTURE INFLOW ON 40 KTS MID LEVEL FLOW...AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
COULD LEAD TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL.

MODELS CONCUR ON THE WEATHER SETTLING DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATES...SENDING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WAS A
BIT LEERY IN TRENDING DRIER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND
THE 12Z ECMWF SURE ENOUGH THROWS A MONKEY WRENCH BACK INTO THE
FORECAST...WITH YET ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ON TUESDAY...AND
THE NORTHERN STREAM NOT BECOMING A FACTOR UNTIL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND BLENDS...A LITTLE
LOWER ESPECIALLY ON LOWS EARLY TO MID WEEK...OTHERWISE CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...MODEL VARIATION ON THE POSITION OF THE
FRONT AND WAVES ALONG IT COULD LEAD TO LARGE BUST POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AT 23Z...STALLED JUST SOUTH OF A KHTS TO KCRW
LINE. ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SCT +SHRA AND +TSRA...WITH BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS. COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR FOG TONIGHT...WITH THE MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER...PARTICULARLY IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES EAST
TOWARDS AREA...WITH ADDL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING...PARTICULARLY AFTER 07Z. EXPECT BRIEF MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS IN STORMS.

BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AFTER
16-18Z...HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AREA WIDE IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH BRIEF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION...AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS COULD VARY FROM CURRENT FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EDT 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/SL
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...SL




000
FXUS61 KRLX 272333
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
733 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
FRONT STALLED NORTHERN KENTUCKY TO CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA LIFTS
BACK NORTH OVERNIGHT...THEN WAFFLES BACK/FORTH IN OUR VICINITY
THROUGH FRIDAY...PROVIDING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
545 PM UPDATE...TWEAKED POP GRIDS A BIT...KEEPING HIGHER POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. KEEPING AN EYE ON TRENDS/PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THIS
EVENING. OFFICE RECEIVED ABOUT 0.25 INCHES IN A 15-20 MINUTE
PERIOD THIS EVENING. A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT COUNTIES TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHERE HEAVIER RAINS FELL
YESTERDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...AND ISSUE ANY WATER
HEADLINES AS DEEM NECESSARY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
AS OF 18Z...STALLED SHALLOW SURFACE FRONT NEAR HTS-CRW TO N OF
BKW. DIFFICULT POP AND QPF FORECAST TO SAY THE LEAST. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE...AT 18Z...TO GO WITH ANY WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD WATCH
OVERNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT CONVECTION TO ALIGN WITH THE FLOW LIKE
YESTERDAY...BUT STILL HAVE LOCALIZED PROBLEMS. SO IF THESE
DOWNPOURS HIT THE WETTER AREAS FROM LAST NIGHT...COULD SEE
FLOODING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE FFA FOR
TONIGHT.

WILL INSERT SOME HEAVY RAIN FOR OVERNIGHT...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
INCREASES TO AROUND 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES...BEFORE TRENDING DOWN AGAIN
LATE THURSDAY.

THINKING SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE FRONT
AND SOUTH.  THEN THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES 00Z TO 06Z
WITH STEERING FLOW AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKING AHEAD OF IT.  12Z MODEL
SOLUTIONS SEEM A BIT SLOW...COMPARED TO THE 18Z RADAR...LIFTING THE
DISTURBANCE NORTHEAST.

SO MORE DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...ESPECIALLY
IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES.

WILL BASE FORECAST ON THE FRONT LIFTING TOWARD THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR
BY 12Z THURSDAY.  AS A RESULT...WILL INCREASE MAX TEMPERATURE A BIT
IN THE NORTH ON THURSDAY...BUT A SHARP GRADIENT AS YOU VENTURE
FURTHER NORTH.  HAVE POPS DECREASING IN THE MORNING AS THE MID LEVEL
SUPPORT PULLS NORTH.

MORE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...COMPARED TO
TODAY...OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES DESPITE THE LOWER
PRECIPITABLE WATER.  SO DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD REFIRE...WITH
POSSIBLE SEVERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL MODELS SHOW A FINAL WAVE SLIDING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING IN THE REGION MOST OF
THE WEEK. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THIS. THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION OF THE NAM EVEN SHOWS A DECENT VORT MAX CROSSING
DURING THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LINGERING THE LONGEST ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES OF WV. SO...MUCH OF FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT LOOKS DRY...BEFORE MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY
AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SPED UP POPS
WITH THIS FEATURE PRETTY GOOD...AND MAY EVEN STILL BE A LITTLE SLOW
BASED ON 12Z MODEL RUNS. MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. BIGGEST CHANGE WAS TO GO A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH CLOUDS ALREADY ON THE INCREASE BY THE PREDAWN HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY TO START THE PERIOD AS YET ANOTHER
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE PUSHES IN. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING ANOTHER
COPIOUS ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE LOW IS
ONLY PROGGED TO BE NEAR STANDARD ATMOSPHERE MSLP...BUT DECENT
MOISTURE INFLOW ON 40 KTS MID LEVEL FLOW...AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
COULD LEAD TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL.

MODELS CONCUR ON THE WEATHER SETTLING DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATES...SENDING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WAS A
BIT LEERY IN TRENDING DRIER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND
THE 12Z ECMWF SURE ENOUGH THROWS A MONKEY WRENCH BACK INTO THE
FORECAST...WITH YET ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ON TUESDAY...AND
THE NORTHERN STREAM NOT BECOMING A FACTOR UNTIL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND BLENDS...A LITTLE
LOWER ESPECIALLY ON LOWS EARLY TO MID WEEK...OTHERWISE CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...MODEL VARIATION ON THE POSITION OF THE
FRONT AND WAVES ALONG IT COULD LEAD TO LARGE BUST POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AT 23Z...STALLED JUST SOUTH OF A KHTS TO KCRW
LINE. ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SCT +SHRA AND +TSRA...WITH BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS. COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR FOG TONIGHT...WITH THE MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER...PARTICULARLY IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES EAST
TOWARDS AREA...WITH ADDL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING...PARTICULARLY AFTER 07Z. EXPECT BRIEF MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS IN STORMS.

BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AFTER
16-18Z...HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AREA WIDE IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH BRIEF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION...AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS COULD VARY FROM CURRENT FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EDT 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/SL
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...SL




000
FXUS61 KRLX 272155
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
555 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
FRONT STALLED NORTHERN KENTUCKY TO CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA LIFTS
BACK NORTH OVERNIGHT...THEN WAFFLES BACK/FORTH IN OUR VICINITY
THROUGH FRIDAY...PROVIDING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
545 PM UPDATE...TWEAKED POP GRIDS A BIT...KEEPING HIGHER POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. KEEPING AN EYE ON TRENDS/PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THIS
EVENING. OFFICE RECEIVED ABOUT 0.25 INCHES IN A 15-20 MINUTE
PERIOD THIS EVENING. A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT COUNTIES TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHERE HEAVIER RAINS FELL
YESTERDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...AND ISSUE ANY WATER
HEADLINES AS DEEM NECESSARY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
AS OF 18Z...STALLED SHALLOW SURFACE FRONT NEAR HTS-CRW TO N OF
BKW. DIFFICULT POP AND QPF FORECAST TO SAY THE LEAST. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE...AT 18Z...TO GO WITH ANY WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD WATCH
OVERNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT CONVECTION TO ALIGN WITH THE FLOW LIKE
YESTERDAY...BUT STILL HAVE LOCALIZED PROBLEMS. SO IF THESE
DOWNPOURS HIT THE WETTER AREAS FROM LAST NIGHT...COULD SEE
FLOODING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE FFA FOR
TONIGHT.

WILL INSERT SOME HEAVY RAIN FOR OVERNIGHT...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
INCREASES TO AROUND 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES...BEFORE TRENDING DOWN AGAIN
LATE THURSDAY.

THINKING SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE FRONT
AND SOUTH.  THEN THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES 00Z TO 06Z
WITH STEERING FLOW AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKING AHEAD OF IT.  12Z MODEL
SOLUTIONS SEEM A BIT SLOW...COMPARED TO THE 18Z RADAR...LIFTING THE
DISTURBANCE NORTHEAST.

SO MORE DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...ESPECIALLY
IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES.

WILL BASE FORECAST ON THE FRONT LIFTING TOWARD THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR
BY 12Z THURSDAY.  AS A RESULT...WILL INCREASE MAX TEMPERATURE A BIT
IN THE NORTH ON THURSDAY...BUT A SHARP GRADIENT AS YOU VENTURE
FURTHER NORTH.  HAVE POPS DECREASING IN THE MORNING AS THE MID LEVEL
SUPPORT PULLS NORTH.

MORE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...COMPARED TO
TODAY...OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES DESPITE THE LOWER
PRECIPITABLE WATER.  SO DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD REFIRE...WITH
POSSIBLE SEVERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL MODELS SHOW A FINAL WAVE SLIDING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING IN THE REGION MOST OF
THE WEEK. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THIS. THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION OF THE NAM EVEN SHOWS A DECENT VORT MAX CROSSING
DURING THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LINGERING THE LONGEST ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES OF WV. SO...MUCH OF FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT LOOKS DRY...BEFORE MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY
AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SPED UP POPS
WITH THIS FEATURE PRETTY GOOD...AND MAY EVEN STILL BE A LITTLE SLOW
BASED ON 12Z MODEL RUNS. MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. BIGGEST CHANGE WAS TO GO A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH CLOUDS ALREADY ON THE INCREASE BY THE PREDAWN HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY TO START THE PERIOD AS YET ANOTHER
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE PUSHES IN. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING ANOTHER
COPIOUS ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE LOW IS
ONLY PROGGED TO BE NEAR STANDARD ATMOSPHERE MSLP...BUT DECENT
MOISTURE INFLOW ON 40 KTS MID LEVEL FLOW...AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
COULD LEAD TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL.

MODELS CONCUR ON THE WEATHER SETTLING DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATES...SENDING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WAS A
BIT LEARY IN TRENDING DRIER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND THE
12Z ECMWF SURE ENOUGH THROWS A MONKEY WRENCH BACK INTO THE
FORECAST...WITH YET ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ON TUESDAY...AND
THE NORTHERN STREAM NOT BECOMING A FACTOR UNTIL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND BLENDS...A LITTLE
LOWER ESPECIALLY ON LOWS EARLY TO MID WEEK...OTHERWISE CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...MODEL VARIATION ON THE POSITION OF THE
FRONT AND WAVES ALONG IT COULD LEAD TO LARGE BUST POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONFIDENCE LOWERED TO LOW. HARD TO DETERMINE COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION FROM HTS-CRW-BKW ON SOUTH...THEN HARD TO TIME OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION AND COVERAGE...AS IT LIFTS NORTH TOWARD PKB-CKB AND EKN.
MODELS SEEM TO BE A BIT SLOW LIFTING NORTH...COMPARED TO 18Z RADAR.

IN THE MEANTIME...HAVE DRY CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS DIURNALLY
LIFTING THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

PLUS WITH THE HIGHER DEW POINTS...WILL MOUNTAIN VALLEYS LIKE ELKINS
SEE FOG FORM BEFORE THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION REACHES THE MOUNTAINS.

OVERALL...EXPECT LOW BASED CU AT MOSTLY 2 TO 3 THSD FT AGL SCATTERED
TO BROKEN WITH LAYERS ABOVE. LOCAL IFR IN CONVECTION WITH VSBY BLO 3
MILES AND CEILINGS AOB 2 THSD FT.

BASING FORECAST ON SURFACE FRONT LIFTING NORTH TO NEAR KUNI-KPKB-
KCKB BY 12Z THURSDAY. LEFTOVER MORNING SHOWERS EXIT TO THE
NORTH...BUT THEN INSTABILITY INCREASES BY 18Z THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF PKB-CKB.  SO TALLER CONVECTION EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...


ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION COULD VARY.
FOG MAY FORM IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS BEFORE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
AREAS...WITH VSBY LOWER THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EDT 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/SL
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...KTB




000
FXUS61 KRLX 272155
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
555 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
FRONT STALLED NORTHERN KENTUCKY TO CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA LIFTS
BACK NORTH OVERNIGHT...THEN WAFFLES BACK/FORTH IN OUR VICINITY
THROUGH FRIDAY...PROVIDING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
545 PM UPDATE...TWEAKED POP GRIDS A BIT...KEEPING HIGHER POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. KEEPING AN EYE ON TRENDS/PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THIS
EVENING. OFFICE RECEIVED ABOUT 0.25 INCHES IN A 15-20 MINUTE
PERIOD THIS EVENING. A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT COUNTIES TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHERE HEAVIER RAINS FELL
YESTERDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...AND ISSUE ANY WATER
HEADLINES AS DEEM NECESSARY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
AS OF 18Z...STALLED SHALLOW SURFACE FRONT NEAR HTS-CRW TO N OF
BKW. DIFFICULT POP AND QPF FORECAST TO SAY THE LEAST. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE...AT 18Z...TO GO WITH ANY WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD WATCH
OVERNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT CONVECTION TO ALIGN WITH THE FLOW LIKE
YESTERDAY...BUT STILL HAVE LOCALIZED PROBLEMS. SO IF THESE
DOWNPOURS HIT THE WETTER AREAS FROM LAST NIGHT...COULD SEE
FLOODING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE FFA FOR
TONIGHT.

WILL INSERT SOME HEAVY RAIN FOR OVERNIGHT...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
INCREASES TO AROUND 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES...BEFORE TRENDING DOWN AGAIN
LATE THURSDAY.

THINKING SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE FRONT
AND SOUTH.  THEN THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES 00Z TO 06Z
WITH STEERING FLOW AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKING AHEAD OF IT.  12Z MODEL
SOLUTIONS SEEM A BIT SLOW...COMPARED TO THE 18Z RADAR...LIFTING THE
DISTURBANCE NORTHEAST.

SO MORE DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...ESPECIALLY
IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES.

WILL BASE FORECAST ON THE FRONT LIFTING TOWARD THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR
BY 12Z THURSDAY.  AS A RESULT...WILL INCREASE MAX TEMPERATURE A BIT
IN THE NORTH ON THURSDAY...BUT A SHARP GRADIENT AS YOU VENTURE
FURTHER NORTH.  HAVE POPS DECREASING IN THE MORNING AS THE MID LEVEL
SUPPORT PULLS NORTH.

MORE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...COMPARED TO
TODAY...OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES DESPITE THE LOWER
PRECIPITABLE WATER.  SO DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD REFIRE...WITH
POSSIBLE SEVERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL MODELS SHOW A FINAL WAVE SLIDING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING IN THE REGION MOST OF
THE WEEK. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THIS. THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION OF THE NAM EVEN SHOWS A DECENT VORT MAX CROSSING
DURING THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LINGERING THE LONGEST ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES OF WV. SO...MUCH OF FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT LOOKS DRY...BEFORE MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY
AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SPED UP POPS
WITH THIS FEATURE PRETTY GOOD...AND MAY EVEN STILL BE A LITTLE SLOW
BASED ON 12Z MODEL RUNS. MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. BIGGEST CHANGE WAS TO GO A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH CLOUDS ALREADY ON THE INCREASE BY THE PREDAWN HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY TO START THE PERIOD AS YET ANOTHER
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE PUSHES IN. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING ANOTHER
COPIOUS ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE LOW IS
ONLY PROGGED TO BE NEAR STANDARD ATMOSPHERE MSLP...BUT DECENT
MOISTURE INFLOW ON 40 KTS MID LEVEL FLOW...AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
COULD LEAD TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL.

MODELS CONCUR ON THE WEATHER SETTLING DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATES...SENDING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WAS A
BIT LEARY IN TRENDING DRIER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND THE
12Z ECMWF SURE ENOUGH THROWS A MONKEY WRENCH BACK INTO THE
FORECAST...WITH YET ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ON TUESDAY...AND
THE NORTHERN STREAM NOT BECOMING A FACTOR UNTIL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND BLENDS...A LITTLE
LOWER ESPECIALLY ON LOWS EARLY TO MID WEEK...OTHERWISE CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...MODEL VARIATION ON THE POSITION OF THE
FRONT AND WAVES ALONG IT COULD LEAD TO LARGE BUST POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONFIDENCE LOWERED TO LOW. HARD TO DETERMINE COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION FROM HTS-CRW-BKW ON SOUTH...THEN HARD TO TIME OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION AND COVERAGE...AS IT LIFTS NORTH TOWARD PKB-CKB AND EKN.
MODELS SEEM TO BE A BIT SLOW LIFTING NORTH...COMPARED TO 18Z RADAR.

IN THE MEANTIME...HAVE DRY CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS DIURNALLY
LIFTING THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

PLUS WITH THE HIGHER DEW POINTS...WILL MOUNTAIN VALLEYS LIKE ELKINS
SEE FOG FORM BEFORE THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION REACHES THE MOUNTAINS.

OVERALL...EXPECT LOW BASED CU AT MOSTLY 2 TO 3 THSD FT AGL SCATTERED
TO BROKEN WITH LAYERS ABOVE. LOCAL IFR IN CONVECTION WITH VSBY BLO 3
MILES AND CEILINGS AOB 2 THSD FT.

BASING FORECAST ON SURFACE FRONT LIFTING NORTH TO NEAR KUNI-KPKB-
KCKB BY 12Z THURSDAY. LEFTOVER MORNING SHOWERS EXIT TO THE
NORTH...BUT THEN INSTABILITY INCREASES BY 18Z THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF PKB-CKB.  SO TALLER CONVECTION EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...


ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION COULD VARY.
FOG MAY FORM IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS BEFORE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
AREAS...WITH VSBY LOWER THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EDT 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/SL
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...KTB




000
FXUS61 KRLX 272054
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
454 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
FRONT STALLED NORTHERN KENTUCKY TO CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA LIFTS
BACK NORTH OVERNIGHT...THEN WAFFLES BACK/FORTH IN OUR VICINITY
THROUGH FRIDAY...PROVIDING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...STALLED SHALLOW SURFACE FRONT NEAR HTS-CRW TO N OF
BKW. DIFFICULT POP AND QPF FORECAST TO SAY THE LEAST. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE...AT 18Z...TO GO WITH ANY WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD WATCH
OVERNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT CONVECTION TO ALIGN WITH THE FLOW LIKE
YESTERDAY...BUT STILL HAVE LOCALIZED PROBLEMS. SO IF THESE
DOWNPOURS HIT THE WETTER AREAS FROM LAST NIGHT...COULD SEE
FLOODING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE FFA FOR
TONIGHT.

WILL INSERT SOME HEAVY RAIN FOR OVERNIGHT...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
INCREASES TO AROUND 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES...BEFORE TRENDING DOWN AGAIN
LATE THURSDAY.

THINKING SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE FRONT
AND SOUTH.  THEN THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES 00Z TO 06Z
WITH STEERING FLOW AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKING AHEAD OF IT.  12Z MODEL
SOLUTIONS SEEM A BIT SLOW...COMPARED TO THE 18Z RADAR...LIFTING THE
DISTURBANCE NORTHEAST.

SO MORE DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...ESPECIALLY
IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES.

WILL BASE FORECAST ON THE FRONT LIFTING TOWARD THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR
BY 12Z THURSDAY.  AS A RESULT...WILL INCREASE MAX TEMPERATURE A BIT
IN THE NORTH ON THURSDAY...BUT A SHARP GRADIENT AS YOU VENTURE
FURTHER NORTH.  HAVE POPS DECREASING IN THE MORNING AS THE MID LEVEL
SUPPORT PULLS NORTH.

MORE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...COMPARED TO
TODAY...OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES DESPITE THE LOWER
PRECIPITABLE WATER.  SO DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD REFIRE...WITH
POSSIBLE SEVERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL MODELS SHOW A FINAL WAVE SLIDING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING IN THE REGION MOST OF
THE WEEK. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THIS. THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION OF THE NAM EVEN SHOWS A DECENT VORT MAX CROSSING
DURING THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LINGERING THE LONGEST ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES OF WV. SO...MUCH OF FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT LOOKS DRY...BEFORE MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY
AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SPED UP POPS
WITH THIS FEATURE PRETTY GOOD...AND MAY EVEN STILL BE A LITTLE SLOW
BASED ON 12Z MODEL RUNS. MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. BIGGEST CHANGE WAS TO GO A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH CLOUDS ALREADY ON THE INCREASE BY THE PREDAWN HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY TO START THE PERIOD AS YET ANOTHER
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE PUSHES IN. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING ANOTHER
COPIOUS ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE LOW IS
ONLY PROGGED TO BE NEAR STANDARD ATMOSPHERE MSLP...BUT DECENT
MOISTURE INFLOW ON 40 KTS MID LEVEL FLOW...AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
COULD LEAD TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL.

MODELS CONCUR ON THE WEATHER SETTLING DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATES...SENDING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WAS A
BIT LEARY IN TRENDING DRIER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND THE
12Z ECMWF SURE ENOUGH THROWS A MONKEY WRENCH BACK INTO THE
FORECAST...WITH YET ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ON TUESDAY...AND
THE NORTHERN STREAM NOT BECOMING A FACTOR UNTIL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND BLENDS...A LITTLE
LOWER ESPECIALLY ON LOWS EARLY TO MID WEEK...OTHERWISE CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...MODEL VARIATION ON THE POSITION OF THE
FRONT AND WAVES ALONG IT COULD LEAD TO LARGE BUST POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONFIDENCE LOWERED TO LOW. HARD TO DETERMINE COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION FROM HTS-CRW-BKW ON SOUTH...THEN HARD TO TIME OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION AND COVERAGE...AS IT LIFTS NORTH TOWARD PKB-CKB AND EKN.
MODELS SEEM TO BE A BIT SLOW LIFTING NORTH...COMPARED TO 18Z RADAR.

IN THE MEANTIME...HAVE DRY CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS DIURNALLY
LIFTING THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

PLUS WITH THE HIGHER DEW POINTS...WILL MOUNTAIN VALLEYS LIKE ELKINS
SEE FOG FORM BEFORE THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION REACHES THE MOUNTAINS.

OVERALL...EXPECT LOW BASED CU AT MOSTLY 2 TO 3 THSD FT AGL SCATTERED
TO BROKEN WITH LAYERS ABOVE. LOCAL IFR IN CONVECTION WITH VSBY BLO 3
MILES AND CEILINGS AOB 2 THSD FT.

BASING FORECAST ON SURFACE FRONT LIFTING NORTH TO NEAR KUNI-KPKB-
KCKB BY 12Z THURSDAY. LEFTOVER MORNING SHOWERS EXIT TO THE
NORTH...BUT THEN INSTABILITY INCREASES BY 18Z THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF PKB-CKB.  SO TALLER CONVECTION EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION COULD VARY.
FOG MAY FORM IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS BEFORE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
AREAS...WITH VSBY LOWER THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EDT 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...KTB




000
FXUS61 KRLX 272054
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
454 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
FRONT STALLED NORTHERN KENTUCKY TO CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA LIFTS
BACK NORTH OVERNIGHT...THEN WAFFLES BACK/FORTH IN OUR VICINITY
THROUGH FRIDAY...PROVIDING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...STALLED SHALLOW SURFACE FRONT NEAR HTS-CRW TO N OF
BKW. DIFFICULT POP AND QPF FORECAST TO SAY THE LEAST. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE...AT 18Z...TO GO WITH ANY WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD WATCH
OVERNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT CONVECTION TO ALIGN WITH THE FLOW LIKE
YESTERDAY...BUT STILL HAVE LOCALIZED PROBLEMS. SO IF THESE
DOWNPOURS HIT THE WETTER AREAS FROM LAST NIGHT...COULD SEE
FLOODING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE FFA FOR
TONIGHT.

WILL INSERT SOME HEAVY RAIN FOR OVERNIGHT...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
INCREASES TO AROUND 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES...BEFORE TRENDING DOWN AGAIN
LATE THURSDAY.

THINKING SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE FRONT
AND SOUTH.  THEN THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES 00Z TO 06Z
WITH STEERING FLOW AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKING AHEAD OF IT.  12Z MODEL
SOLUTIONS SEEM A BIT SLOW...COMPARED TO THE 18Z RADAR...LIFTING THE
DISTURBANCE NORTHEAST.

SO MORE DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...ESPECIALLY
IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES.

WILL BASE FORECAST ON THE FRONT LIFTING TOWARD THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR
BY 12Z THURSDAY.  AS A RESULT...WILL INCREASE MAX TEMPERATURE A BIT
IN THE NORTH ON THURSDAY...BUT A SHARP GRADIENT AS YOU VENTURE
FURTHER NORTH.  HAVE POPS DECREASING IN THE MORNING AS THE MID LEVEL
SUPPORT PULLS NORTH.

MORE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...COMPARED TO
TODAY...OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES DESPITE THE LOWER
PRECIPITABLE WATER.  SO DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD REFIRE...WITH
POSSIBLE SEVERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL MODELS SHOW A FINAL WAVE SLIDING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING IN THE REGION MOST OF
THE WEEK. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THIS. THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION OF THE NAM EVEN SHOWS A DECENT VORT MAX CROSSING
DURING THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LINGERING THE LONGEST ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES OF WV. SO...MUCH OF FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT LOOKS DRY...BEFORE MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY
AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SPED UP POPS
WITH THIS FEATURE PRETTY GOOD...AND MAY EVEN STILL BE A LITTLE SLOW
BASED ON 12Z MODEL RUNS. MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. BIGGEST CHANGE WAS TO GO A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH CLOUDS ALREADY ON THE INCREASE BY THE PREDAWN HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY TO START THE PERIOD AS YET ANOTHER
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE PUSHES IN. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING ANOTHER
COPIOUS ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE LOW IS
ONLY PROGGED TO BE NEAR STANDARD ATMOSPHERE MSLP...BUT DECENT
MOISTURE INFLOW ON 40 KTS MID LEVEL FLOW...AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
COULD LEAD TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL.

MODELS CONCUR ON THE WEATHER SETTLING DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATES...SENDING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WAS A
BIT LEARY IN TRENDING DRIER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND THE
12Z ECMWF SURE ENOUGH THROWS A MONKEY WRENCH BACK INTO THE
FORECAST...WITH YET ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ON TUESDAY...AND
THE NORTHERN STREAM NOT BECOMING A FACTOR UNTIL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND BLENDS...A LITTLE
LOWER ESPECIALLY ON LOWS EARLY TO MID WEEK...OTHERWISE CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...MODEL VARIATION ON THE POSITION OF THE
FRONT AND WAVES ALONG IT COULD LEAD TO LARGE BUST POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONFIDENCE LOWERED TO LOW. HARD TO DETERMINE COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION FROM HTS-CRW-BKW ON SOUTH...THEN HARD TO TIME OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION AND COVERAGE...AS IT LIFTS NORTH TOWARD PKB-CKB AND EKN.
MODELS SEEM TO BE A BIT SLOW LIFTING NORTH...COMPARED TO 18Z RADAR.

IN THE MEANTIME...HAVE DRY CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS DIURNALLY
LIFTING THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

PLUS WITH THE HIGHER DEW POINTS...WILL MOUNTAIN VALLEYS LIKE ELKINS
SEE FOG FORM BEFORE THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION REACHES THE MOUNTAINS.

OVERALL...EXPECT LOW BASED CU AT MOSTLY 2 TO 3 THSD FT AGL SCATTERED
TO BROKEN WITH LAYERS ABOVE. LOCAL IFR IN CONVECTION WITH VSBY BLO 3
MILES AND CEILINGS AOB 2 THSD FT.

BASING FORECAST ON SURFACE FRONT LIFTING NORTH TO NEAR KUNI-KPKB-
KCKB BY 12Z THURSDAY. LEFTOVER MORNING SHOWERS EXIT TO THE
NORTH...BUT THEN INSTABILITY INCREASES BY 18Z THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF PKB-CKB.  SO TALLER CONVECTION EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION COULD VARY.
FOG MAY FORM IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS BEFORE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
AREAS...WITH VSBY LOWER THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EDT 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...KTB




000
FXUS61 KRLX 272007
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
407 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
FRONTED STALLED NORTHERN KY TO CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA LIFTS BACK
NORTH OVERNIGHT...THEN WAFFLES BACK/FORTH IN OUR VICINITY THROUGH
FRIDAY...PROVIDING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...STALLED SHALLOW SURFACE FRONT NEAR HTS-CRW TO N OF
BKW. DIFFICULT POP AND QPF FORECAST TO SAY THE LEAST. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE...AT 18Z...TO GO WITH ANY WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD WATCH
OVERNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT CONVECTION TO ALIGN WITH THE FLOW LIKE
YESTERDAY...BUT STILL HAVE LOCALIZED PROBLEMS. SO IF THESE
DOWNPOURS HIT THE WETTER AREAS FROM LAST NIGHT...COULD SEE
FLOODING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE FFA FOR
TONIGHT.

WILL INSERT SOME HEAVY RAIN FOR OVERNIGHT...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
INCREASES TO AROUND 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES...BEFORE TRENDING DOWN AGAIN
LATE THURSDAY.

THINKING SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE FRONT
AND SOUTH.  THEN THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES 00Z TO 06Z
WITH STEERING FLOW AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKING AHEAD OF IT.  12Z MODEL
SOLUTIONS SEEM A BIT SLOW...COMPARED TO THE 18Z RADAR...LIFTING THE
DISTURBANCE NORTHEAST.

SO MORE DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...ESPECIALLY
IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES.

WILL BASE FORECAST ON THE FRONT LIFTING TOWARD THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR
BY 12Z THURSDAY.  AS A RESULT...WILL INCREASE MAX TEMPERATURE A BIT
IN THE NORTH ON THURSDAY...BUT A SHARP GRADIENT AS YOU VENTURE
FURTHER NORTH.  HAVE POPS DECREASING IN THE MORNING AS THE MID LEVEL
SUPPORT PULLS NORTH.

MORE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...COMPARED TO
TODAY...OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES DESPITE THE LOWER
PRECIPITABLE WATER.  SO DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD REFIRE...WITH
POSSIBLE SEVERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL MODELS SHOW A FINAL WAVE SLIDING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING IN THE REGION MOST OF
THE WEEK. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THIS. THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION OF THE NAM EVEN SHOWS A DECENT VORT MAX CROSSING
DURING THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LINGERING THE LONGEST ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES OF WV. SO...MUCH OF FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT LOOKS DRY...BEFORE MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY
AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SPED UP POPS
WITH THIS FEATURE PRETTY GOOD...AND MAY EVEN STILL BE A LITTLE SLOW
BASED ON 12Z MODEL RUNS. MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. BIGGEST CHANGE WAS TO GO A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH CLOUDS ALREADY ON THE INCREASE BY THE PREDAWN HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY TO START THE PERIOD AS YET ANOTHER
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE PUSHES IN. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING ANOTHER
COPIOUS ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE LOW IS
ONLY PROGGED TO BE NEAR STANDARD ATMOSPHERE MSLP...BUT DECENT
MOISTURE INFLOW ON 40 KTS MID LEVEL FLOW...AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
COULD LEAD TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL.

MODELS CONCUR ON THE WEATHER SETTLING DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATES...SENDING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WAS A
BIT LEARY IN TRENDING DRIER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND THE
12Z ECMWF SURE ENOUGH THROWS A MONKEY WRENCH BACK INTO THE
FORECAST...WITH YET ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ON TUESDAY...AND
THE NORTHERN STREAM NOT BECOMING A FACTOR UNTIL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND BLENDS...A LITTLE
LOWER ESPECIALLY ON LOWS EARLY TO MID WEEK...OTHERWISE CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...MODEL VARIATION ON THE POSITION OF THE
FRONT AND WAVES ALONG IT COULD LEAD TO LARGE BUST POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONFIDENCE LOWERED TO LOW. HARD TO DETERMINE COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION FROM HTS-CRW-BKW ON SOUTH...THEN HARD TO TIME OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION AND COVERAGE...AS IT LIFTS NORTH TOWARD PKB-CKB AND EKN.
MODELS SEEM TO BE A BIT SLOW LIFTING NORTH...COMPARED TO 18Z RADAR.

IN THE MEANTIME...HAVE DRY CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS DIURNALLY
LIFTING THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

PLUS WITH THE HIGHER DEW POINTS...WILL MOUNTAIN VALLEYS LIKE ELKINS
SEE FOG FORM BEFORE THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION REACHES THE MOUNTAINS.

OVERALL...EXPECT LOW BASED CU AT MOSTLY 2 TO 3 THSD FT AGL SCATTERED
TO BROKEN WITH LAYERS ABOVE. LOCAL IFR IN CONVECTION WITH VSBY BLO 3
MILES AND CEILINGS AOB 2 THSD FT.

BASING FORECAST ON SURFACE FRONT LIFTING NORTH TO NEAR KUNI-KPKB-
KCKB BY 12Z THURSDAY. LEFTOVER MORNING SHOWERS EXIT TO THE
NORTH...BUT THEN INSTABILITY INCREASES BY 18Z THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF PKB-CKB.  SO TALLER CONVECTION EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION COULD VARY.
FOG MAY FORM IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS BEFORE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
AREAS...WITH VSBY LOWER THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...KTB




000
FXUS61 KRLX 271819
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
215 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
FRONTED STALLED NORTHERN KY TO CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA LIFTS BACK
NORTH OVERNIGHT...THEN WAFFLES BACK/FORTH IN OUR VICINITY THROUGH
FRIDAY...PROVIDING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 18Z...STALLED SHALLOW SURFACE FRONT NEAR HTS-CRW TO N OF BKW.
DIFFICULT POP AND QPF FORECAST TO SAY THE LEAST. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE...AT
18Z...TO GO WITH ANY WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVERNIGHT.  DO NOT
EXPECT CONVECTION TO ALIGN WITH THE FLOW LIKE YESTERDAY...BUT STILL
HAVE LOCALIZED PROBLEMS. SO IF THESE DOWNPOURS HIT THE WETTER AREAS
FROM LAST NIGHT...COULD SEE FLOODING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
ANY POSSIBLE FFA FOR TONIGHT.

WILL INSERT SOME HEAVY RAIN FOR OVERNIGHT...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
INCREASES TO AROUND 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES...BEFORE TRENDING DOWN AGAIN
LATE THURSDAY.

THINKING SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE FRONT
AND SOUTH.  THEN THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES 00Z TO 06Z
WITH STEERING FLOW AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKING AHEAD OF IT.  12Z MODEL
SOLUTIONS SEEM A BIT SLOW...COMPARED TO THE 18Z RADAR...LIFTING THE
DISTURBANCE NORTHEAST.

SO MORE DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...ESPECIALLY
IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES.

WILL BASE FORECAST ON THE FRONT LIFTING TOWARD THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR
BY 12Z THURSDAY.  AS A RESULT...WILL INCREASE MAX TEMPERATURE A BIT
IN THE NORTH ON THURSDAY...BUT A SHARP GRADIENT AS YOU VENTURE
FURTHER NORTH.  HAVE POPS DECREASING IN THE MORNING AS THE MID LEVEL
SUPPORT PULLS NORTH.

MORE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...COMPARED TO
TODAY...OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES DESPITE THE LOWER
PRECIPITABLE WATER.  SO DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD REFIRE...WITH
POSSIBLE SEVERE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
STILL DEALING WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES REGARDING DRIER AIR INTRUDING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY. DIFFERENCES CONTINUE ON
FRIDAY WITH TIMING OF COLDER AIR PUSHING INTO THE AREA. GFS AND
CANADIAN ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS...WHILE THE NAM KEEPS THE
WARMEST AIR OVER THE AREA. SREF AND ECMWF ARE IN BETWEEN. PRIME
EXAMPLE IS THE MOS GUIDANCE HIGHS FOR HTS. NAM HAS 80 WHILE GFS HAS
67. BIG BUST POTENTIAL. WITH NO CLEAR EVIDENCE ON WHICH WAY TO
LEAN... WILL KEEP A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION FOR BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND STARTING OUT DRY
FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING AND POSITION OF THIS NEXT
SYSTEM. WITH THAT IN MIND, WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION. INTRODUCED POPS FOR SATURDAY FROM SW TO NE WITH
THE WARM FRONT. THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY
WITH THE SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE LOW FINALLY EXITS TO THE EAST ON
MONDAY NIGHT. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONFIDENCE LOWERED TO LOW. HARD TO DETERMINE COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION FROM HTS-CRW-BKW ON SOUTH...THEN HARD TO TIME OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION AND COVERAGE...AS IT LIFTS NORTH TOWARD PKB-CKB AND EKN.
MODELS SEEM TO BE A BIT SLOW LIFTING NORTH...COMPARED TO 18Z RADAR.

IN THE MEANTIME...HAVE DRY CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS DIRUNALLY
LIFTING THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

PLUS WITH THE HIGHER DEW POINTS...WILL MOUNTAIN VALLEYS LIKE ELKINS
SEE FOG FORM BEFORE THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION REACHES THE MOUNTAINS.

OVERALL...EXPECT LOW BASED CU AT MOSTLY 2 TO 3 THSD FT AGL SCATTERED
TO BROKEN WITH LAYERS ABOVE. LOCAL IFR IN CONVECTION WITH VSBY BLO 3
MILES AND CEILINGS AOB 2 THSD FT.

BASING FORECAST ON SURFACE FRONT LIFTING NORTH TO NEAR KUNI-KPKB-
KCKB BY 12Z THURSDAY. LEFTOVER MORNING SHOWERS EXIT TO THE
NORTH...BUT THEN INSTABILITY INCREASES BY 18Z THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF PKB-CKB.  SO TALLER CONVECTION EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION COULD VARY.
FOG MAY FORM IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS BEFORE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
AREAS...WITH VSBY LOWER THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OR STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. IFR AGAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...KTB




000
FXUS61 KRLX 271819
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
215 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
FRONTED STALLED NORTHERN KY TO CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA LIFTS BACK
NORTH OVERNIGHT...THEN WAFFLES BACK/FORTH IN OUR VICINITY THROUGH
FRIDAY...PROVIDING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 18Z...STALLED SHALLOW SURFACE FRONT NEAR HTS-CRW TO N OF BKW.
DIFFICULT POP AND QPF FORECAST TO SAY THE LEAST. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE...AT
18Z...TO GO WITH ANY WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVERNIGHT.  DO NOT
EXPECT CONVECTION TO ALIGN WITH THE FLOW LIKE YESTERDAY...BUT STILL
HAVE LOCALIZED PROBLEMS. SO IF THESE DOWNPOURS HIT THE WETTER AREAS
FROM LAST NIGHT...COULD SEE FLOODING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
ANY POSSIBLE FFA FOR TONIGHT.

WILL INSERT SOME HEAVY RAIN FOR OVERNIGHT...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
INCREASES TO AROUND 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES...BEFORE TRENDING DOWN AGAIN
LATE THURSDAY.

THINKING SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE FRONT
AND SOUTH.  THEN THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES 00Z TO 06Z
WITH STEERING FLOW AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKING AHEAD OF IT.  12Z MODEL
SOLUTIONS SEEM A BIT SLOW...COMPARED TO THE 18Z RADAR...LIFTING THE
DISTURBANCE NORTHEAST.

SO MORE DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...ESPECIALLY
IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES.

WILL BASE FORECAST ON THE FRONT LIFTING TOWARD THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR
BY 12Z THURSDAY.  AS A RESULT...WILL INCREASE MAX TEMPERATURE A BIT
IN THE NORTH ON THURSDAY...BUT A SHARP GRADIENT AS YOU VENTURE
FURTHER NORTH.  HAVE POPS DECREASING IN THE MORNING AS THE MID LEVEL
SUPPORT PULLS NORTH.

MORE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...COMPARED TO
TODAY...OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES DESPITE THE LOWER
PRECIPITABLE WATER.  SO DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD REFIRE...WITH
POSSIBLE SEVERE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
STILL DEALING WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES REGARDING DRIER AIR INTRUDING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY. DIFFERENCES CONTINUE ON
FRIDAY WITH TIMING OF COLDER AIR PUSHING INTO THE AREA. GFS AND
CANADIAN ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS...WHILE THE NAM KEEPS THE
WARMEST AIR OVER THE AREA. SREF AND ECMWF ARE IN BETWEEN. PRIME
EXAMPLE IS THE MOS GUIDANCE HIGHS FOR HTS. NAM HAS 80 WHILE GFS HAS
67. BIG BUST POTENTIAL. WITH NO CLEAR EVIDENCE ON WHICH WAY TO
LEAN... WILL KEEP A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION FOR BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND STARTING OUT DRY
FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING AND POSITION OF THIS NEXT
SYSTEM. WITH THAT IN MIND, WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION. INTRODUCED POPS FOR SATURDAY FROM SW TO NE WITH
THE WARM FRONT. THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY
WITH THE SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE LOW FINALLY EXITS TO THE EAST ON
MONDAY NIGHT. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONFIDENCE LOWERED TO LOW. HARD TO DETERMINE COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION FROM HTS-CRW-BKW ON SOUTH...THEN HARD TO TIME OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION AND COVERAGE...AS IT LIFTS NORTH TOWARD PKB-CKB AND EKN.
MODELS SEEM TO BE A BIT SLOW LIFTING NORTH...COMPARED TO 18Z RADAR.

IN THE MEANTIME...HAVE DRY CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS DIRUNALLY
LIFTING THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

PLUS WITH THE HIGHER DEW POINTS...WILL MOUNTAIN VALLEYS LIKE ELKINS
SEE FOG FORM BEFORE THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION REACHES THE MOUNTAINS.

OVERALL...EXPECT LOW BASED CU AT MOSTLY 2 TO 3 THSD FT AGL SCATTERED
TO BROKEN WITH LAYERS ABOVE. LOCAL IFR IN CONVECTION WITH VSBY BLO 3
MILES AND CEILINGS AOB 2 THSD FT.

BASING FORECAST ON SURFACE FRONT LIFTING NORTH TO NEAR KUNI-KPKB-
KCKB BY 12Z THURSDAY. LEFTOVER MORNING SHOWERS EXIT TO THE
NORTH...BUT THEN INSTABILITY INCREASES BY 18Z THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF PKB-CKB.  SO TALLER CONVECTION EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION COULD VARY.
FOG MAY FORM IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS BEFORE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
AREAS...WITH VSBY LOWER THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OR STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. IFR AGAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...KTB




000
FXUS61 KRLX 271442
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1040 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
FRONT STALLING OUT IN VICINITY TODAY. FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH TONIGHT
AND WAFFLES BACK/FORTH IN OUR VICINITY THROUGH FRIDAY...PROVIDING
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1430Z...SHALLOW SURFACE FRONT HAS SNEAKED THROUGH HTS TO CRW
BETWEEN 11Z TO 14Z. YET...925 88D VAD FLOW STILL FROM SOUTHWEST AT
RLX. SO DEPTH OF FRONTAL INVERSION ABOUT 1 TO 2 THSD FT.  FURTHER
INTO THE COOLER LOW LEVEL AIR...WILL LOWER MAXIUMUM TEMPERATURE PKB
TO CKB. FIGURING FRONT WILL NOT MOVE MUCH THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MORNING SHOWERS ARE RUNNING JUST JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE
FRONT...SHOULD MOVE INTO CENTRAL WV MOUNTAIN COUNTIES FOR MIDDAY.

THE BAND OF CONVECTION IN CENTRAL KY TO SE KY AT 1430Z...SEEMS TO BE
RELATED TO A NICE 925 MB INFLOW THIS MORNING. YET...MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE 925 MB INFLOW BREAKING DOWN THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
RECHARGING FURTHER WEST.  THAT BETTER INFLOW LIFTS INTO OUR OHIO
VALLEY COUNTIES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ALSO
TRYING TO LIFT BACK NORTH.

RAINFALL PAST 24 HOURS WAS HIGHLY VARIABLE IN THE CONVECTION.  BANDS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN OCCURRED...WITH A MAXIMUM 2 TO 2.5 IN
NICHOLAS COUNTY. YET...WITH THE DRY GROUND THERE INITIALLY...THE
GAULEY ONLY RISING ABOUT A FOOT OR TWO.

IN THE WETTER COUNTIES...THE FFA DID PAN OUT FOR THE PKB
VCNTY...WITH SOME MINOR FLASH FLOODING TUESDAY EVENING AROUND
WILLIAMSTOWN WITH RAINFALL OF 1.6 INCHES.

WILL MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE FFA FOR TONIGHT...BUT MAY BE HARD TO
JUMP ON ANY HEADLINE RELEASE THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
STILL DEALING WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES REGARDING DRIER AIR INTRUDING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY. DIFFERENCES CONTINUE ON
FRIDAY WITH TIMING OF COLDER AIR PUSHING INTO THE AREA. GFS AND
CANADIAN ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS...WHILE THE NAM KEEPS THE
WARMEST AIR OVER THE AREA. SREF AND ECMWF ARE IN BETWEEN. PRIME
EXAMPLE IS THE MOS GUIDANCE HIGHS FOR HTS. NAM HAS 80 WHILE GFS HAS
67. BIG BUST POTENTIAL. WITH NO CLEAR EVIDENCE ON WHICH WAY TO
LEAN... WILL KEEP A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION FOR BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND STARTING OUT DRY
FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING AND POSITION OF THIS NEXT
SYSTEM. WITH THAT IN MIND, WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION. INTRODUCED POPS FOR SATURDAY FROM SW TO NE WITH
THE WARM FRONT. THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY
WITH THE SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE LOW FINALLY EXITS TO THE EAST ON
MONDAY NIGHT. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW STRATUS SETTLING IN AT A FEW OF THE TERMINALS THIS
MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE 15Z TIME FRAME BEFORE
IMPROVING. WAVES OF SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO PASS AS
WELL...BUT THESE SHOULD CAUSE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 18Z...AND WILL
SEE A TRANSITION BACK TO A CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS
FIRST...AND WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT...THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE NORTH AS WELL. NO
PREVAILING THUNDER AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS YET...BUT THIS MAY
CHANGE IN FUTURE ISSUANCES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF STRATUS LIFTING MAY VARY.
CONVECTION TIMING LATER TODAY TO VARY...AND MAY NEED TO ADD TSRA
TO PREVAILING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/RPY/MZ/26
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS61 KRLX 271037
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
637 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AND WAFFLES
BACK/FORTH IN OUR VICINITY THROUGH FRIDAY...PROVIDING ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE...
NO CHANGES THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXPECT THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO STALL OVER SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
THIS MORNING AS CONVECTION INTENSITY WANES AND WE TRANSITION TO A
MORE STRATIFORM EVENT.

FILLING UPPER LOW THAT WAS IN PART RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ACTIVITY
OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS YESTERDAY WILL PUSH NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CORRESPONDING SURFACE
SYSTEM...INCLUDING THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT...WILL LINGER OVER THE
AREA...ACTUALLY DRIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. SPC GOING WITH A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL TODAY WITH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA IN THE MARGINAL
RISK TERRITORY. LOW STRATUS THAT SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE BULK OF
THE MORNING AFTER THE CURRENT BATCH OF RAIN EXITS IS A CULPRIT IN
THIS CASE. LOW LEVELS FLOWS ARE WEAK...AND INSTABILITY OFF THE
SURFACE WILL BE MINIMAL...AND ALMOST NON EXISTENT ACROSS EASTERN
OHIO AND NORTH CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON.

NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY. SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WAS IN AN
ABNORMALLY DRY STATE BEFORE THE CONVECTION EARLIER THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT...AND THE ACTIVITY SHOULD HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING
NORTH TODAY...PRODUCING CONSISTENT RAINFALL. WILL NEED TO RE
EVALUATE THIS AFTER TODAY...HEADING INTO TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH
THE RETURN OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
STILL DEALING WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES REGARDING DRIER AIR INTRUDING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY. DIFFERENCES CONTINUE ON
FRIDAY WITH TIMING OF COLDER AIR PUSHING INTO THE AREA. GFS AND
CANADIAN ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS...WHILE THE NAM KEEPS THE
WARMEST AIR OVER THE AREA. SREF AND ECMWF ARE IN BETWEEN. PRIME
EXAMPLE IS THE MOS GUIDANCE HIGHS FOR HTS. NAM HAS 80 WHILE GFS HAS
67. BIG BUST POTENTIAL. WITH NO CLEAR EVIDENCE ON WHICH WAY TO
LEAN... WILL KEEP A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION FOR BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND STARTING OUT DRY
FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING AND POSITION OF THIS NEXT
SYSTEM. WITH THAT IN MIND, WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION. INTRODUCED POPS FOR SATURDAY FROM SW TO NE WITH
THE WARM FRONT. THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY
WITH THE SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE LOW FINALLY EXITS TO THE EAST ON
MONDAY NIGHT. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW STRATUS SETTLING IN AT A FEW OF THE TERMINALS THIS
MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE 15Z TIME FRAME BEFORE
IMPROVING. WAVES OF SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO PASS AS
WELL...BUT THESE SHOULD CAUSE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 18Z...AND WILL
SEE A TRANSITION BACK TO A CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS
FIRST...AND WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT...THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE NORTH AS WELL. NO
PREVAILING THUNDER AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS YET...BUT THIS MAY
CHANGE IN FUTURE ISSUANCES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF STRATUS LIFTING MAY VARY.
CONVECTION TIMING LATER TODAY TO VARY...AND MAY NEED TO ADD TSRA
TO PREVAILING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/RPY/MZ/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS61 KRLX 271037
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
637 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AND WAFFLES
BACK/FORTH IN OUR VICINITY THROUGH FRIDAY...PROVIDING ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE...
NO CHANGES THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXPECT THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO STALL OVER SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
THIS MORNING AS CONVECTION INTENSITY WANES AND WE TRANSITION TO A
MORE STRATIFORM EVENT.

FILLING UPPER LOW THAT WAS IN PART RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ACTIVITY
OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS YESTERDAY WILL PUSH NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CORRESPONDING SURFACE
SYSTEM...INCLUDING THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT...WILL LINGER OVER THE
AREA...ACTUALLY DRIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. SPC GOING WITH A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL TODAY WITH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA IN THE MARGINAL
RISK TERRITORY. LOW STRATUS THAT SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE BULK OF
THE MORNING AFTER THE CURRENT BATCH OF RAIN EXITS IS A CULPRIT IN
THIS CASE. LOW LEVELS FLOWS ARE WEAK...AND INSTABILITY OFF THE
SURFACE WILL BE MINIMAL...AND ALMOST NON EXISTENT ACROSS EASTERN
OHIO AND NORTH CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON.

NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY. SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WAS IN AN
ABNORMALLY DRY STATE BEFORE THE CONVECTION EARLIER THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT...AND THE ACTIVITY SHOULD HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING
NORTH TODAY...PRODUCING CONSISTENT RAINFALL. WILL NEED TO RE
EVALUATE THIS AFTER TODAY...HEADING INTO TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH
THE RETURN OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
STILL DEALING WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES REGARDING DRIER AIR INTRUDING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY. DIFFERENCES CONTINUE ON
FRIDAY WITH TIMING OF COLDER AIR PUSHING INTO THE AREA. GFS AND
CANADIAN ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS...WHILE THE NAM KEEPS THE
WARMEST AIR OVER THE AREA. SREF AND ECMWF ARE IN BETWEEN. PRIME
EXAMPLE IS THE MOS GUIDANCE HIGHS FOR HTS. NAM HAS 80 WHILE GFS HAS
67. BIG BUST POTENTIAL. WITH NO CLEAR EVIDENCE ON WHICH WAY TO
LEAN... WILL KEEP A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION FOR BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND STARTING OUT DRY
FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING AND POSITION OF THIS NEXT
SYSTEM. WITH THAT IN MIND, WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION. INTRODUCED POPS FOR SATURDAY FROM SW TO NE WITH
THE WARM FRONT. THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY
WITH THE SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE LOW FINALLY EXITS TO THE EAST ON
MONDAY NIGHT. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW STRATUS SETTLING IN AT A FEW OF THE TERMINALS THIS
MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE 15Z TIME FRAME BEFORE
IMPROVING. WAVES OF SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO PASS AS
WELL...BUT THESE SHOULD CAUSE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 18Z...AND WILL
SEE A TRANSITION BACK TO A CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS
FIRST...AND WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT...THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE NORTH AS WELL. NO
PREVAILING THUNDER AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS YET...BUT THIS MAY
CHANGE IN FUTURE ISSUANCES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF STRATUS LIFTING MAY VARY.
CONVECTION TIMING LATER TODAY TO VARY...AND MAY NEED TO ADD TSRA
TO PREVAILING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/RPY/MZ/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS61 KRLX 270729
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
320 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AND WAFFLES
BACK/FORTH IN OUR VICINITY THROUGH FRIDAY...PROVIDING ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EXPECT THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO STALL OVER SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
THIS MORNING AS CONVECTION INTENSITY WANES AND WE TRANSITION TO A
MORE STRATIFORM EVENT.

FILLING UPPER LOW THAT WAS IN PART RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ACTIVITY
OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS YESTERDAY WILL PUSH NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CORRESPONDING SURFACE
SYSTEM...INCLUDING THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT...WILL LINGER OVER THE
AREA...ACTUALLY DRIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. SPC GOING WITH A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL TODAY WITH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA IN THE MARGINAL
RISK TERRITORY. LOW STRATUS THAT SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE BULK OF
THE MORNING AFTER THE CURRENT BATCH OF RAIN EXITS IS A CULPRIT IN
THIS CASE. LOW LEVELS FLOWS ARE WEAK...AND INSTABILITY OFF THE
SURFACE WILL BE MINIMAL...AND ALMOST NON EXISTENT ACROSS EASTERN
OHIO AND NORTH CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON.

NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY. SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WAS IN AN
ABNORMALLY DRY STATE BEFORE THE CONVECTION EARLIER THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT...AND THE ACTIVITY SHOULD HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING
NORTH TODAY...PRODUCING CONSISTENT RAINFALL. WILL NEED TO RE
EVALUATE THIS AFTER TODAY...HEADING INTO TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH
THE RETURN OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
STILL DEALING WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES REGARDING DRIER AIR INTRUDING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY. DIFFERENCES CONTINUE ON
FRIDAY WITH TIMING OF COLDER AIR PUSHING INTO THE AREA. GFS AND
CANADIAN ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS...WHILE THE NAM KEEPS THE
WARMEST AIR OVER THE AREA. SREF AND ECMWF ARE IN BETWEEN. PRIME
EXAMPLE IS THE MOS GUIDANCE HIGHS FOR HTS. NAM HAS 80 WHILE GFS HAS
67. BIG BUST POTENTIAL. WITH NO CLEAR EVIDENCE ON WHICH WAY TO
LEAN... WILL KEEP A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION FOR BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND STARTING OUT DRY
FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING AND POSITION OF THIS NEXT
SYSTEM. WITH THAT IN MIND, WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION. INTRODUCED POPS FOR SATURDAY FROM SW TO NE WITH
THE WARM FRONT. THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY
WITH THE SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE LOW FINALLY EXITS TO THE EAST ON
MONDAY NIGHT. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WAVES OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 5 HOURS WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF CKB...WHERE THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH. UPON EXIT...EXPECTING LOW STRATUS TO FORM IN
ITS WAKE...AND ALREADY SEE HINTS OF WHAT IS TO COME AT PKB WHERE
CEILINGS ARE DOWN TO IFR LEVELS. LOW END MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS...AS CEILINGS SLOWLY LIFT
BACK TO VFR FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN AFTER 18Z...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS. COVERAGE AND DURATION OF THE
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CEILINGS IN QUESTION AFTER RAIN EXITS THIS
MORNING. TIMING OF CONVECTION  THIS AFTERNOON MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              WED 04/27/16
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/RPY/MZ/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS61 KRLX 270704
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
304 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AND WAFFLES
BACK/FORTH IN OUR VICINITY THROUGH FRIDAY...PROVIDING ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EXPECT THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO STALL OVER SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
THIS MORNING AS CONVECTION INTENSITY WANES AND WE TRANSITION TO A
MORE STRATIFORM EVENT.

FILLING UPPER LOW THAT WAS IN PART RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ACTIVITY
OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS YESTERDAY WILL PUSH NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CORRESPONDING SURFACE
SYSTEM...INCLUDING THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT...WILL LINGER OVER THE
AREA...ACTUALLY DRIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. SPC GOING WITH A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL TODAY WITH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA IN THE MARGINAL
RISK TERRITORY. LOW STRATUS THAT SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE BULK OF
THE MORNING AFTER THE CURRENT BATCH OF RAIN EXITS IS A CULPRIT IN
THIS CASE. LOW LEVELS FLOWS ARE WEAK...AND INSTABILITY OFF THE
SURFACE WILL BE MINIMAL...AND ALMOST NON EXISTENT ACROSS EASTERN
OHIO AND NORTH CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON.

NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY. SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WAS IN AN
ABNORMALLY DRY STATE BEFORE THE CONVECTION EARLIER THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT...AND THE ACTIVITY SHOULD HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING
NORTH TODAY...PRODUCING CONSISTENT RAINFALL. WILL NEED TO RE
EVALUATE THIS AFTER TODAY...HEADING INTO TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH
THE RETURN OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ON EXACT TIMING FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE
A SURFACE LOW SLIDING ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON A NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AS THE LOW IA/IL...THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE CWA AS A WARM FRONT.
THE GFS AND NAM SHOW A RELATIVE MINIMUM FOR POP/QPF OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...SO KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO MAKE IT TO ABOUT THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING INTO PA AS A WEAKENING UPPER LOW
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES. HAVE POPS DRYING OUT FROM SW TO NE THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW HEADS NE. USED A BLEND OF BIAS-
CORRECTED GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...ENDING UP A TOUCH WARMER ON THURSDAY.
MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO GOING LOWS USING A CONSENSUS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND STARTING OUT DRY
FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING AND POSITION OF THIS NEXT
SYSTEM. WITH THAT IN MIND, WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR
TIMING OF PRECIP. INTRODUCED POPS FOR SATURDAY FROM SW TO NE WITH
THE WARM FRONT. THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY
WITH THE SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE LOW FINALLY EXITS TO THE EAST ON
MONDAY NIGHT. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WAVES OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 5 HOURS WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF CKB...WHERE THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH. UPON EXIT...EXPECTING LOW STRATUS TO FORM IN
ITS WAKE...AND ALREADY SEE HINTS OF WHAT IS TO COME AT PKB WHERE
CEILINGS ARE DOWN TO IFR LEVELS. LOW END MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS...AS CEILINGS SLOWLY LIFT
BACK TO VFR FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN AFTER 18Z...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS. COVERAGE AND DURATION OF THE
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CEILINGS IN QUESTION AFTER RAIN EXITS THIS
MORNING. TIMING OF CONVECTION  THIS AFTERNOON MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              WED 04/27/16
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/MZ/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS61 KRLX 270704
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
304 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AND WAFFLES
BACK/FORTH IN OUR VICINITY THROUGH FRIDAY...PROVIDING ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EXPECT THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO STALL OVER SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
THIS MORNING AS CONVECTION INTENSITY WANES AND WE TRANSITION TO A
MORE STRATIFORM EVENT.

FILLING UPPER LOW THAT WAS IN PART RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ACTIVITY
OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS YESTERDAY WILL PUSH NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CORRESPONDING SURFACE
SYSTEM...INCLUDING THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT...WILL LINGER OVER THE
AREA...ACTUALLY DRIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. SPC GOING WITH A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL TODAY WITH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA IN THE MARGINAL
RISK TERRITORY. LOW STRATUS THAT SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE BULK OF
THE MORNING AFTER THE CURRENT BATCH OF RAIN EXITS IS A CULPRIT IN
THIS CASE. LOW LEVELS FLOWS ARE WEAK...AND INSTABILITY OFF THE
SURFACE WILL BE MINIMAL...AND ALMOST NON EXISTENT ACROSS EASTERN
OHIO AND NORTH CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON.

NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY. SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WAS IN AN
ABNORMALLY DRY STATE BEFORE THE CONVECTION EARLIER THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT...AND THE ACTIVITY SHOULD HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING
NORTH TODAY...PRODUCING CONSISTENT RAINFALL. WILL NEED TO RE
EVALUATE THIS AFTER TODAY...HEADING INTO TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH
THE RETURN OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ON EXACT TIMING FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE
A SURFACE LOW SLIDING ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON A NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AS THE LOW IA/IL...THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE CWA AS A WARM FRONT.
THE GFS AND NAM SHOW A RELATIVE MINIMUM FOR POP/QPF OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...SO KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO MAKE IT TO ABOUT THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING INTO PA AS A WEAKENING UPPER LOW
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES. HAVE POPS DRYING OUT FROM SW TO NE THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW HEADS NE. USED A BLEND OF BIAS-
CORRECTED GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...ENDING UP A TOUCH WARMER ON THURSDAY.
MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO GOING LOWS USING A CONSENSUS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND STARTING OUT DRY
FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING AND POSITION OF THIS NEXT
SYSTEM. WITH THAT IN MIND, WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR
TIMING OF PRECIP. INTRODUCED POPS FOR SATURDAY FROM SW TO NE WITH
THE WARM FRONT. THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY
WITH THE SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE LOW FINALLY EXITS TO THE EAST ON
MONDAY NIGHT. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WAVES OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 5 HOURS WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF CKB...WHERE THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH. UPON EXIT...EXPECTING LOW STRATUS TO FORM IN
ITS WAKE...AND ALREADY SEE HINTS OF WHAT IS TO COME AT PKB WHERE
CEILINGS ARE DOWN TO IFR LEVELS. LOW END MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS...AS CEILINGS SLOWLY LIFT
BACK TO VFR FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN AFTER 18Z...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS. COVERAGE AND DURATION OF THE
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CEILINGS IN QUESTION AFTER RAIN EXITS THIS
MORNING. TIMING OF CONVECTION  THIS AFTERNOON MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              WED 04/27/16
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/MZ/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS61 KRLX 270531
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
131 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH INTO AREA TONIGHT. WARM/UNSTABLE AIR IN
ADVANCE. FRONT WAFFLES BACK/FORTH IN OUR VICINITY THROUGH
FRIDAY...PROVIDING FOR ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO CANCEL THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WATCH FOR
THE REST OF THE AREA. PCPN HAS BECOME MORE STRATIFY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...WHILE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN
INTENSITY ACROSS THE SOUTH INCLUDING IN KY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ON EXACT TIMING FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE
A SURFACE LOW SLIDING ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON A NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AS THE LOW IA/IL...THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE CWA AS A WARM FRONT.
THE GFS AND NAM SHOW A RELATIVE MINIMUM FOR POP/QPF OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...SO KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO MAKE IT TO ABOUT THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING INTO PA AS A WEAKENING UPPER LOW
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES. HAVE POPS DRYING OUT FROM SW TO NE THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW HEADS NE. USED A BLEND OF BIAS-
CORRECTED GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...ENDING UP A TOUCH WARMER ON THURSDAY.
MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO GOING LOWS USING A CONSENSUS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND STARTING OUT DRY
FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING AND POSITION OF THIS NEXT
SYSTEM. WITH THAT IN MIND, WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR
TIMING OF PRECIP. INTRODUCED POPS FOR SATURDAY FROM SW TO NE WITH
THE WARM FRONT. THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY
WITH THE SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE LOW FINALLY EXITS TO THE EAST ON
MONDAY NIGHT. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WAVES OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 5 HOURS WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF CKB...WHERE THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH. UPON EXIT...EXPECTING LOW STRATUS TO FORM IN
ITS WAKE...AND ALREADY SEE HINTS OF WHAT IS TO COME AT PKB WHERE
CEILINGS ARE DOWN TO IFR LEVELS. LOW END MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS...AS CEILINGS SLOWLY LIFT
BACK TO VFR FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN AFTER 18Z...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS. COVERAGE AND DURATION OF THE
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CEILINGS IN QUESTION AFTER RAIN EXITS THIS
MORNING. TIMING OF CONVECTION  THIS AFTERNOON MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             WED 04/27/16
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/ARJ
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS61 KRLX 270531
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
131 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH INTO AREA TONIGHT. WARM/UNSTABLE AIR IN
ADVANCE. FRONT WAFFLES BACK/FORTH IN OUR VICINITY THROUGH
FRIDAY...PROVIDING FOR ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO CANCEL THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WATCH FOR
THE REST OF THE AREA. PCPN HAS BECOME MORE STRATIFY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...WHILE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN
INTENSITY ACROSS THE SOUTH INCLUDING IN KY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ON EXACT TIMING FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE
A SURFACE LOW SLIDING ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON A NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AS THE LOW IA/IL...THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE CWA AS A WARM FRONT.
THE GFS AND NAM SHOW A RELATIVE MINIMUM FOR POP/QPF OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...SO KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO MAKE IT TO ABOUT THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING INTO PA AS A WEAKENING UPPER LOW
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES. HAVE POPS DRYING OUT FROM SW TO NE THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW HEADS NE. USED A BLEND OF BIAS-
CORRECTED GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...ENDING UP A TOUCH WARMER ON THURSDAY.
MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO GOING LOWS USING A CONSENSUS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND STARTING OUT DRY
FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING AND POSITION OF THIS NEXT
SYSTEM. WITH THAT IN MIND, WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR
TIMING OF PRECIP. INTRODUCED POPS FOR SATURDAY FROM SW TO NE WITH
THE WARM FRONT. THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY
WITH THE SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE LOW FINALLY EXITS TO THE EAST ON
MONDAY NIGHT. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WAVES OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 5 HOURS WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF CKB...WHERE THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH. UPON EXIT...EXPECTING LOW STRATUS TO FORM IN
ITS WAKE...AND ALREADY SEE HINTS OF WHAT IS TO COME AT PKB WHERE
CEILINGS ARE DOWN TO IFR LEVELS. LOW END MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS...AS CEILINGS SLOWLY LIFT
BACK TO VFR FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN AFTER 18Z...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS. COVERAGE AND DURATION OF THE
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CEILINGS IN QUESTION AFTER RAIN EXITS THIS
MORNING. TIMING OF CONVECTION  THIS AFTERNOON MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             WED 04/27/16
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/ARJ
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS61 KRLX 270459
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1259 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH INTO AREA TONIGHT. WARM/UNSTABLE AIR IN
ADVANCE. FRONT WAFFLES BACK/FORTH IN OUR VICINITY THROUGH
FRIDAY...PROVIDING FOR ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO CANCEL THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WATCH FOR
THE REST OF THE AREA. PCPN HAS BECOME MORE STRATIFY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...WHILE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN
INTENSITY ACROSS THE SOUTH INCLUDING IN KY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ON EXACT TIMING FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE
A SURFACE LOW SLIDING ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON A NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AS THE LOW IA/IL...THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE CWA AS A WARM FRONT.
THE GFS AND NAM SHOW A RELATIVE MINIMUM FOR POP/QPF OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...SO KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO MAKE IT TO ABOUT THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING INTO PA AS A WEAKENING UPPER LOW
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES. HAVE POPS DRYING OUT FROM SW TO NE THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW HEADS NE. USED A BLEND OF BIAS-
CORRECTED GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...ENDING UP A TOUCH WARMER ON THURSDAY.
MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO GOING LOWS USING A CONSENSUS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND STARTING OUT DRY
FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING AND POSITION OF THIS NEXT
SYSTEM. WITH THAT IN MIND, WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR
TIMING OF PRECIP. INTRODUCED POPS FOR SATURDAY FROM SW TO NE WITH
THE WARM FRONT. THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY
WITH THE SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE LOW FINALLY EXITS TO THE EAST ON
MONDAY NIGHT. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SPREAD NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA FROM EAST TO WEST. SOME OF THE HEAVIER STORMS
BECAME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS DEVELOP IN A POPCORN FASHION
MAKING DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THEIR TRACK AND SEE IF THEY WOULD
AFFECT ANY OF THE SITES.

THE CHALLENGE IS TO FORECAST WHETHER THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
MOVING SOUTH OR BECOMES STATIONARY. THE GENERAL THINKING WAS THAT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA.

YOU CAN ENCOUNTER MICROBURST UNDER THE STRONGEST CELLS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONVECTION MAY BE SLOWER MOVING SOUTH LATE
THIS EVENING THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             WED 04/27/16
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/ARJ
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...ARJ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 270236
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1036 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH INTO AREA TONIGHT. WARM/UNSTABLE AIR IN
ADVANCE. FRONT WAFFLES BACK/FORTH IN OUR VICINITY THROUGH
FRIDAY...PROVIDING FOR ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA HAS DIMINISH IN INTENSITY. DOPPLER
RADAR INDICATE NO SEVERE STORMS PRESENT AT THE MOMENT. THERE STILL
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA.
THEREFORE...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER NO LONGER EXIST FOR THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT REMAINS FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
COUNTIES UNTIL 06Z. WILL CONTINUE MONITORING THE ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS WITH THE POSSIBILITY TO CANCEL THE REST OF THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... AS OF 1840Z...DECIDED TO GO WITH
FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVER OUR WETTEST COUNTIES FROM THE PAST SEVERAL
WEEKS...IN CASE THE SAME SMALL BASIN GET MORE THAN 1 HEAVIER CELL.

THE FFA IS CURRENT NOW...AND LINGERS INTO THIS EVENING. SOUTHERN COUNTIES
MAY SEE JUST AS MUCH RAIN LATER...BUT MUCH DRIER SOILS OVER SOUTHERN
COUNTIES.

REST OF DISCUSSION FROM 1830Z...
AS OF 1830Z...CONTINUES TO BE AN EVOLVING PATTERN TO SAY THE
LEAST...BUT SO FAR...UNFOLDING ABOUT ON SCHEDULE...FROM OUR
MORNING DISCUSSION.

NEW DEVELOPMENT IS FORMING IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OHIO...IN THE
MOST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS.  QUESTION IS HOW...
QUICKLY IT SINKS SOUTH...SINCE STEERING FLOW STUBBORN TO VEER TO NW.
I MAY BE TOO FAST INCREASING POPS OVER SOUTHERN WV S OF CRW.

WILL MONITOR COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...FOR POSSIBLE SHORT
FUSE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR OUR WETTEST CORRIDOR IN THE PKB TO CKB
VCNTY. OF COURSE...SEVERE POSSIBLE TOO...CONSIDERING EQUILIBRIUM
LEVEL 30 TO 35 THSD...WITH FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 11K TO 11.5 K. EXPECT
CELL MOVEMENT SHOULD BE AROUND 30 TO 35 KNOTS.

ALSO...THINKING SEPARATE AREAS OF CONVECTION DEVELOP FURTHER NORTH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE FRONT ITSELF.  SO OVERALL...SEVERAL
CLUSTERS.

CONTINUE TO INCLUDED MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN...WHEN POPS ARE THE
HIGHEST THIS AFTERNOON AND MUCH OF THIS EVENING.

BASING OUR FORECAST ON FRONT REACHING NEAR PKB TO CKB AROUND 03Z
WEDNESDAY...AND REACHING EKN TO CRW TO HTS AROUND 09Z WEDNESDAY...
THEN STARTING TO RUN OUT OF GAS.  HAVE DRIZZLE IN THE LOW CLOUDS
NORTH OF THE FRONT LATE NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

WAS DRIER IN THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...FIGURING DEEPER MOISTURE DOES
NOT RETURN UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ON EXACT TIMING FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE
A SURFACE LOW SLIDING ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON A NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AS THE LOW IA/IL...THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE CWA AS A WARM FRONT.
THE GFS AND NAM SHOW A RELATIVE MINIMUM FOR POP/QPF OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...SO KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO MAKE IT TO ABOUT THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING INTO PA AS A WEAKENING UPPER LOW
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES. HAVE POPS DRYING OUT FROM SW TO NE THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW HEADS NE. USED A BLEND OF BIAS-
CORRECTED GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...ENDING UP A TOUCH WARMER ON THURSDAY.
MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO GOING LOWS USING A CONSENSUS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND STARTING OUT DRY
FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING AND POSITION OF THIS NEXT
SYSTEM. WITH THAT IN MIND, WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR
TIMING OF PRECIP. INTRODUCED POPS FOR SATURDAY FROM SW TO NE WITH
THE WARM FRONT. THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY
WITH THE SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE LOW FINALLY EXITS TO THE EAST ON
MONDAY NIGHT. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SPREAD NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA FROM EAST TO WEST. SOME OF THE HEAVIER STORMS
BECAME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS DEVELOP IN A POPCORN FASHION
MAKING DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THEIR TRACK AND SEE IF THEY WOULD
AFFECT ANY OF THE SITES.

THE CHALLENGE IS TO FORECAST WHETHER THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
MOVING SOUTH OR BECOMES STATIONARY. THE GENERAL THINKING WAS THAT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA.

YOU CAN ENCOUNTER MICROBURST UNDER THE STRONGEST CELLS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONVECTION MAY BE SLOWER MOVING SOUTH LATE
THIS EVENING THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            WED 04/27/16
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/ARJ
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...ARJ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 270236
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1036 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH INTO AREA TONIGHT. WARM/UNSTABLE AIR IN
ADVANCE. FRONT WAFFLES BACK/FORTH IN OUR VICINITY THROUGH
FRIDAY...PROVIDING FOR ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA HAS DIMINISH IN INTENSITY. DOPPLER
RADAR INDICATE NO SEVERE STORMS PRESENT AT THE MOMENT. THERE STILL
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA.
THEREFORE...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER NO LONGER EXIST FOR THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT REMAINS FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
COUNTIES UNTIL 06Z. WILL CONTINUE MONITORING THE ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS WITH THE POSSIBILITY TO CANCEL THE REST OF THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... AS OF 1840Z...DECIDED TO GO WITH
FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVER OUR WETTEST COUNTIES FROM THE PAST SEVERAL
WEEKS...IN CASE THE SAME SMALL BASIN GET MORE THAN 1 HEAVIER CELL.

THE FFA IS CURRENT NOW...AND LINGERS INTO THIS EVENING. SOUTHERN COUNTIES
MAY SEE JUST AS MUCH RAIN LATER...BUT MUCH DRIER SOILS OVER SOUTHERN
COUNTIES.

REST OF DISCUSSION FROM 1830Z...
AS OF 1830Z...CONTINUES TO BE AN EVOLVING PATTERN TO SAY THE
LEAST...BUT SO FAR...UNFOLDING ABOUT ON SCHEDULE...FROM OUR
MORNING DISCUSSION.

NEW DEVELOPMENT IS FORMING IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OHIO...IN THE
MOST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS.  QUESTION IS HOW...
QUICKLY IT SINKS SOUTH...SINCE STEERING FLOW STUBBORN TO VEER TO NW.
I MAY BE TOO FAST INCREASING POPS OVER SOUTHERN WV S OF CRW.

WILL MONITOR COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...FOR POSSIBLE SHORT
FUSE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR OUR WETTEST CORRIDOR IN THE PKB TO CKB
VCNTY. OF COURSE...SEVERE POSSIBLE TOO...CONSIDERING EQUILIBRIUM
LEVEL 30 TO 35 THSD...WITH FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 11K TO 11.5 K. EXPECT
CELL MOVEMENT SHOULD BE AROUND 30 TO 35 KNOTS.

ALSO...THINKING SEPARATE AREAS OF CONVECTION DEVELOP FURTHER NORTH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE FRONT ITSELF.  SO OVERALL...SEVERAL
CLUSTERS.

CONTINUE TO INCLUDED MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN...WHEN POPS ARE THE
HIGHEST THIS AFTERNOON AND MUCH OF THIS EVENING.

BASING OUR FORECAST ON FRONT REACHING NEAR PKB TO CKB AROUND 03Z
WEDNESDAY...AND REACHING EKN TO CRW TO HTS AROUND 09Z WEDNESDAY...
THEN STARTING TO RUN OUT OF GAS.  HAVE DRIZZLE IN THE LOW CLOUDS
NORTH OF THE FRONT LATE NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

WAS DRIER IN THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...FIGURING DEEPER MOISTURE DOES
NOT RETURN UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ON EXACT TIMING FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE
A SURFACE LOW SLIDING ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON A NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AS THE LOW IA/IL...THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE CWA AS A WARM FRONT.
THE GFS AND NAM SHOW A RELATIVE MINIMUM FOR POP/QPF OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...SO KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO MAKE IT TO ABOUT THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING INTO PA AS A WEAKENING UPPER LOW
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES. HAVE POPS DRYING OUT FROM SW TO NE THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW HEADS NE. USED A BLEND OF BIAS-
CORRECTED GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...ENDING UP A TOUCH WARMER ON THURSDAY.
MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO GOING LOWS USING A CONSENSUS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND STARTING OUT DRY
FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING AND POSITION OF THIS NEXT
SYSTEM. WITH THAT IN MIND, WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR
TIMING OF PRECIP. INTRODUCED POPS FOR SATURDAY FROM SW TO NE WITH
THE WARM FRONT. THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY
WITH THE SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE LOW FINALLY EXITS TO THE EAST ON
MONDAY NIGHT. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SPREAD NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA FROM EAST TO WEST. SOME OF THE HEAVIER STORMS
BECAME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS DEVELOP IN A POPCORN FASHION
MAKING DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THEIR TRACK AND SEE IF THEY WOULD
AFFECT ANY OF THE SITES.

THE CHALLENGE IS TO FORECAST WHETHER THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
MOVING SOUTH OR BECOMES STATIONARY. THE GENERAL THINKING WAS THAT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA.

YOU CAN ENCOUNTER MICROBURST UNDER THE STRONGEST CELLS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONVECTION MAY BE SLOWER MOVING SOUTH LATE
THIS EVENING THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            WED 04/27/16
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/ARJ
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...ARJ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 262358
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
758 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH INTO AREA THIS EVENING. WARM/UNSTABLE AIR
IN ADVANCE. FRONT WAFFLES BACK/FORTH IN OUR VICINITY THROUGH
FRIDAY...PROVIDING FOR ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SPC ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA UNTIL
06Z. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOUTHEAST OH...WV...NORTHEAST KY...AND
SOUTHWEST VA TONIGHT. WITH SUNSET...STORMS LOOSE THE DIURNAL
HEATING AND STORMS TREND TO DECREASE THEIR INTENSITY. THIS
ACTIVITY IS DRIVEN BY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ORIENTED EAST TO
WEST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN
INTENSITY BY SUNSET.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
AS OF 1840Z...DECIDED TO GO WITH FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVER OUR
WETTEST COUNTIES FROM THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS...IN CASE THE SAME
SMALL BASIN GET MORE THAN 1 HEAVIER CELL.

THE FFA IS CURRENT NOW...AND LINGERS INTO THIS EVENING. SOUTHERN COUNTIES
MAY SEE JUST AS MUCH RAIN LATER...BUT MUCH DRIER SOILS OVER SOUTHERN
COUNTIES.

REST OF DISCUSSION FROM 1830Z...
AS OF 1830Z...CONTINUES TO BE AN EVOLVING PATTERN TO SAY THE
LEAST...BUT SO FAR...UNFOLDING ABOUT ON SCHEDULE...FROM OUR
MORNING DISCUSSION.

NEW DEVELOPMENT IS FORMING IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OHIO...IN THE
MOST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS.  QUESTION IS HOW...
QUICKLY IT SINKS SOUTH...SINCE STEERING FLOW STUBBORN TO VEER TO NW.
I MAY BE TOO FAST INCREASING POPS OVER SOUTHERN WV S OF CRW.

WILL MONITOR COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...FOR POSSIBLE SHORT
FUSE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR OUR WETTEST CORRIDOR IN THE PKB TO CKB
VCNTY. OF COURSE...SEVERE POSSIBLE TOO...CONSIDERING EQUILIBRIUM
LEVEL 30 TO 35 THSD...WITH FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 11K TO 11.5 K. EXPECT
CELL MOVEMENT SHOULD BE AROUND 30 TO 35 KNOTS.

ALSO...THINKING SEPARATE AREAS OF CONVECTION DEVELOP FURTHER NORTH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE FRONT ITSELF.  SO OVERALL...SEVERAL
CLUSTERS.

CONTINUE TO INCLUDED MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN...WHEN POPS ARE THE
HIGHEST THIS AFTERNOON AND MUCH OF THIS EVENING.

BASING OUR FORECAST ON FRONT REACHING NEAR PKB TO CKB AROUND 03Z
WEDNESDAY...AND REACHING EKN TO CRW TO HTS AROUND 09Z WEDNESDAY...
THEN STARTING TO RUN OUT OF GAS.  HAVE DRIZZLE IN THE LOW CLOUDS
NORTH OF THE FRONT LATE NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

WAS DRIER IN THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...FIGURING DEEPER MOISTURE DOES
NOT RETURN UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ON EXACT TIMING FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE
A SURFACE LOW SLIDING ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON A NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AS THE LOW IA/IL...THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE CWA AS A WARM FRONT.
THE GFS AND NAM SHOW A RELATIVE MINIMUM FOR POP/QPF OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...SO KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO MAKE IT TO ABOUT THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING INTO PA AS A WEAKENING UPPER LOW
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES. HAVE POPS DRYING OUT FROM SW TO NE THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW HEADS NE. USED A BLEND OF BIAS-
CORRECTED GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...ENDING UP A TOUCH WARMER ON THURSDAY.
MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO GOING LOWS USING A CONSENSUS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND STARTING OUT DRY
FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING AND POSITION OF THIS NEXT
SYSTEM. WITH THAT IN MIND, WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR
TIMING OF PRECIP. INTRODUCED POPS FOR SATURDAY FROM SW TO NE WITH
THE WARM FRONT. THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY
WITH THE SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE LOW FINALLY EXITS TO THE EAST ON
MONDAY NIGHT. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SPREAD NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA FROM EAST TO WEST. SOME OF THE HEAVIER STORMS
BECAME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS DEVELOP IN A POPCORN FASHION
MAKING DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THEIR TRACK AND SEE IF THEY WOULD
AFFECT ANY OF THE SITES.

THE CHALLENGE IS TO FORECAST WHETHER THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
MOVING SOUTH OR BECOMES STATIONARY. THE GENERAL THINKING WAS THAT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA.

YOU CAN ENCOUNTER MICROBURST UNDER THE STRONGEST CELLS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONVECTION MAY BE SLOWER MOVING SOUTH LATE
THIS EVENING THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            WED 04/27/16
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ009>011-
     017>020-028>032-038>040-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-067-
     075-076.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/ARJ
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...ARJ




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