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000
FXUS61 KRLX 041020
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
620 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO OUR EAST THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY. DRIER AIR TRIES
TO OOZE SOUTHEAST. MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PULLS DEEPER MOISTURE BACK NORTH
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT ARE
PRODUCING EFFICIENT RAIN. THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY
AT THE SURFACE AND A 500MB TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. DRIER AIR WILL TRY
TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...BUT THINK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
GET TRAPPED AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE SLOW
TO LIFT/BREAK UP. SHOWERS WITH MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SINCE
THE PRECIP HAS CLEARED THE WETTEST AREA OF THE CWA...AND IS NOT
OVERLY HEAVY...WILL CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH A BIT EARLY.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY GET HUNG UP ACROSS SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT...SO MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS
THERE...WHILE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST THE WANING MOON SHOULD MAKE AN
APPEARANCE TONIGHT. ALL THE WHILE...THE NEXT SYSTEM IS WINDING UP
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IN THE FORM OF A
STRENGTHENING 500MB LOW WITH POPS BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
SOUTH AT THE END OF THE NEAR TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TREND ON 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY WAS TO HAVE THE WEAK
500 MB LOW FURTHER WEST...WITH THE NAM THE FURTHEST WEST.  AS A RESULT...
HAD TO GO WETTER IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
BRING THE CHANCE POPS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
STILL TRY TO KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS INCLUDING
SW VA AND THE SOUTHERN WV PLATEAU REGION VCNTY BKW.  ALSO INCREASED
CLOUDS IN OUR SOUTH AND LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE A BIT OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS FOR SUNDAY.

THE 500 MB TEMPS ARE ONLY A DEGREE OR SO COOLER IN THE 500 MB TROF...SO WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUDS...THUNDER CHANCES WERE MENTIONED...BUT INSTABILITY NOT HIGH.
SOMETIMES IN THIS TYPE OF SUMMER PATTERN THE T APPEARS ON THE PERIPHERY.

THE 500 MB TROF WEAKENS AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST MONDAY...WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONT AND TROF IN THE MIDWEST ACTING AS A KICKER.

CURRENTLY WILL NOT ADD ANY WATER HAZARD IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL...
BUT WITH THE WET TERRAIN IN MANY COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE TO REEVALUATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY KEEPING LOW
CHANCE POPS AS WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING BY. ANY PCPN
WOULD BE MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE MAXIMUM HEATING.
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH SHOULD HELP TO SUPPRESS
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BECOME STRONG.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...CROSSING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CODED HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR
NOW. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WENT WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SLOWLY MOVING SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS WV. IN THE SHOWERS
ACTUALLY SEEING BETTER FLIGHT CONDITIONS THAN ELSEWHERE...AS
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS DENSE FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS FORM QUICKLY.
WEAK BOUNDARY ALSO DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS CWA...WITH IFR CIGS
ALONG AND BEHIND IT. EXPECT SLOW IMPROVEMENT INTO MID MORNING.
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS
TODAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOWER CATEGORIES POSSIBLE IF A SHOWER OR
STORM PASSES OVER A TAF SITE TODAY. TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG AND
STRATUS MAY VARY TONIGHT.

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...IFR EXPECTED IN VALLEY FOG/MOUNTAIN CLOUDS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN WV. IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
AND/OR LOW CEILINGS ALONG EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MZ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 041020
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
620 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO OUR EAST THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY. DRIER AIR TRIES
TO OOZE SOUTHEAST. MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PULLS DEEPER MOISTURE BACK NORTH
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT ARE
PRODUCING EFFICIENT RAIN. THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY
AT THE SURFACE AND A 500MB TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. DRIER AIR WILL TRY
TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...BUT THINK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
GET TRAPPED AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE SLOW
TO LIFT/BREAK UP. SHOWERS WITH MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SINCE
THE PRECIP HAS CLEARED THE WETTEST AREA OF THE CWA...AND IS NOT
OVERLY HEAVY...WILL CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH A BIT EARLY.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY GET HUNG UP ACROSS SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT...SO MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS
THERE...WHILE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST THE WANING MOON SHOULD MAKE AN
APPEARANCE TONIGHT. ALL THE WHILE...THE NEXT SYSTEM IS WINDING UP
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IN THE FORM OF A
STRENGTHENING 500MB LOW WITH POPS BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
SOUTH AT THE END OF THE NEAR TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TREND ON 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY WAS TO HAVE THE WEAK
500 MB LOW FURTHER WEST...WITH THE NAM THE FURTHEST WEST.  AS A RESULT...
HAD TO GO WETTER IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
BRING THE CHANCE POPS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
STILL TRY TO KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS INCLUDING
SW VA AND THE SOUTHERN WV PLATEAU REGION VCNTY BKW.  ALSO INCREASED
CLOUDS IN OUR SOUTH AND LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE A BIT OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS FOR SUNDAY.

THE 500 MB TEMPS ARE ONLY A DEGREE OR SO COOLER IN THE 500 MB TROF...SO WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUDS...THUNDER CHANCES WERE MENTIONED...BUT INSTABILITY NOT HIGH.
SOMETIMES IN THIS TYPE OF SUMMER PATTERN THE T APPEARS ON THE PERIPHERY.

THE 500 MB TROF WEAKENS AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST MONDAY...WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONT AND TROF IN THE MIDWEST ACTING AS A KICKER.

CURRENTLY WILL NOT ADD ANY WATER HAZARD IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL...
BUT WITH THE WET TERRAIN IN MANY COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE TO REEVALUATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY KEEPING LOW
CHANCE POPS AS WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING BY. ANY PCPN
WOULD BE MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE MAXIMUM HEATING.
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH SHOULD HELP TO SUPPRESS
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BECOME STRONG.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...CROSSING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CODED HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR
NOW. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WENT WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SLOWLY MOVING SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS WV. IN THE SHOWERS
ACTUALLY SEEING BETTER FLIGHT CONDITIONS THAN ELSEWHERE...AS
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS DENSE FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS FORM QUICKLY.
WEAK BOUNDARY ALSO DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS CWA...WITH IFR CIGS
ALONG AND BEHIND IT. EXPECT SLOW IMPROVEMENT INTO MID MORNING.
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS
TODAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOWER CATEGORIES POSSIBLE IF A SHOWER OR
STORM PASSES OVER A TAF SITE TODAY. TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG AND
STRATUS MAY VARY TONIGHT.

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...IFR EXPECTED IN VALLEY FOG/MOUNTAIN CLOUDS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN WV. IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
AND/OR LOW CEILINGS ALONG EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MZ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 041020
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
620 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO OUR EAST THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY. DRIER AIR TRIES
TO OOZE SOUTHEAST. MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PULLS DEEPER MOISTURE BACK NORTH
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT ARE
PRODUCING EFFICIENT RAIN. THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY
AT THE SURFACE AND A 500MB TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. DRIER AIR WILL TRY
TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...BUT THINK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
GET TRAPPED AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE SLOW
TO LIFT/BREAK UP. SHOWERS WITH MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SINCE
THE PRECIP HAS CLEARED THE WETTEST AREA OF THE CWA...AND IS NOT
OVERLY HEAVY...WILL CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH A BIT EARLY.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY GET HUNG UP ACROSS SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT...SO MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS
THERE...WHILE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST THE WANING MOON SHOULD MAKE AN
APPEARANCE TONIGHT. ALL THE WHILE...THE NEXT SYSTEM IS WINDING UP
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IN THE FORM OF A
STRENGTHENING 500MB LOW WITH POPS BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
SOUTH AT THE END OF THE NEAR TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TREND ON 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY WAS TO HAVE THE WEAK
500 MB LOW FURTHER WEST...WITH THE NAM THE FURTHEST WEST.  AS A RESULT...
HAD TO GO WETTER IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
BRING THE CHANCE POPS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
STILL TRY TO KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS INCLUDING
SW VA AND THE SOUTHERN WV PLATEAU REGION VCNTY BKW.  ALSO INCREASED
CLOUDS IN OUR SOUTH AND LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE A BIT OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS FOR SUNDAY.

THE 500 MB TEMPS ARE ONLY A DEGREE OR SO COOLER IN THE 500 MB TROF...SO WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUDS...THUNDER CHANCES WERE MENTIONED...BUT INSTABILITY NOT HIGH.
SOMETIMES IN THIS TYPE OF SUMMER PATTERN THE T APPEARS ON THE PERIPHERY.

THE 500 MB TROF WEAKENS AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST MONDAY...WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONT AND TROF IN THE MIDWEST ACTING AS A KICKER.

CURRENTLY WILL NOT ADD ANY WATER HAZARD IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL...
BUT WITH THE WET TERRAIN IN MANY COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE TO REEVALUATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY KEEPING LOW
CHANCE POPS AS WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING BY. ANY PCPN
WOULD BE MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE MAXIMUM HEATING.
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH SHOULD HELP TO SUPPRESS
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BECOME STRONG.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...CROSSING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CODED HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR
NOW. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WENT WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SLOWLY MOVING SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS WV. IN THE SHOWERS
ACTUALLY SEEING BETTER FLIGHT CONDITIONS THAN ELSEWHERE...AS
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS DENSE FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS FORM QUICKLY.
WEAK BOUNDARY ALSO DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS CWA...WITH IFR CIGS
ALONG AND BEHIND IT. EXPECT SLOW IMPROVEMENT INTO MID MORNING.
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS
TODAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOWER CATEGORIES POSSIBLE IF A SHOWER OR
STORM PASSES OVER A TAF SITE TODAY. TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG AND
STRATUS MAY VARY TONIGHT.

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...IFR EXPECTED IN VALLEY FOG/MOUNTAIN CLOUDS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN WV. IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
AND/OR LOW CEILINGS ALONG EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MZ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 041020
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
620 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO OUR EAST THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY. DRIER AIR TRIES
TO OOZE SOUTHEAST. MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PULLS DEEPER MOISTURE BACK NORTH
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT ARE
PRODUCING EFFICIENT RAIN. THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY
AT THE SURFACE AND A 500MB TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. DRIER AIR WILL TRY
TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...BUT THINK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
GET TRAPPED AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE SLOW
TO LIFT/BREAK UP. SHOWERS WITH MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SINCE
THE PRECIP HAS CLEARED THE WETTEST AREA OF THE CWA...AND IS NOT
OVERLY HEAVY...WILL CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH A BIT EARLY.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY GET HUNG UP ACROSS SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT...SO MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS
THERE...WHILE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST THE WANING MOON SHOULD MAKE AN
APPEARANCE TONIGHT. ALL THE WHILE...THE NEXT SYSTEM IS WINDING UP
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IN THE FORM OF A
STRENGTHENING 500MB LOW WITH POPS BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
SOUTH AT THE END OF THE NEAR TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TREND ON 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY WAS TO HAVE THE WEAK
500 MB LOW FURTHER WEST...WITH THE NAM THE FURTHEST WEST.  AS A RESULT...
HAD TO GO WETTER IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
BRING THE CHANCE POPS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
STILL TRY TO KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS INCLUDING
SW VA AND THE SOUTHERN WV PLATEAU REGION VCNTY BKW.  ALSO INCREASED
CLOUDS IN OUR SOUTH AND LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE A BIT OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS FOR SUNDAY.

THE 500 MB TEMPS ARE ONLY A DEGREE OR SO COOLER IN THE 500 MB TROF...SO WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUDS...THUNDER CHANCES WERE MENTIONED...BUT INSTABILITY NOT HIGH.
SOMETIMES IN THIS TYPE OF SUMMER PATTERN THE T APPEARS ON THE PERIPHERY.

THE 500 MB TROF WEAKENS AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST MONDAY...WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONT AND TROF IN THE MIDWEST ACTING AS A KICKER.

CURRENTLY WILL NOT ADD ANY WATER HAZARD IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL...
BUT WITH THE WET TERRAIN IN MANY COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE TO REEVALUATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY KEEPING LOW
CHANCE POPS AS WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING BY. ANY PCPN
WOULD BE MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE MAXIMUM HEATING.
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH SHOULD HELP TO SUPPRESS
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BECOME STRONG.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...CROSSING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CODED HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR
NOW. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WENT WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SLOWLY MOVING SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS WV. IN THE SHOWERS
ACTUALLY SEEING BETTER FLIGHT CONDITIONS THAN ELSEWHERE...AS
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS DENSE FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS FORM QUICKLY.
WEAK BOUNDARY ALSO DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS CWA...WITH IFR CIGS
ALONG AND BEHIND IT. EXPECT SLOW IMPROVEMENT INTO MID MORNING.
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS
TODAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOWER CATEGORIES POSSIBLE IF A SHOWER OR
STORM PASSES OVER A TAF SITE TODAY. TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG AND
STRATUS MAY VARY TONIGHT.

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...IFR EXPECTED IN VALLEY FOG/MOUNTAIN CLOUDS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN WV. IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
AND/OR LOW CEILINGS ALONG EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MZ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 041020
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
620 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO OUR EAST THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY. DRIER AIR TRIES
TO OOZE SOUTHEAST. MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PULLS DEEPER MOISTURE BACK NORTH
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT ARE
PRODUCING EFFICIENT RAIN. THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY
AT THE SURFACE AND A 500MB TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. DRIER AIR WILL TRY
TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...BUT THINK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
GET TRAPPED AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE SLOW
TO LIFT/BREAK UP. SHOWERS WITH MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SINCE
THE PRECIP HAS CLEARED THE WETTEST AREA OF THE CWA...AND IS NOT
OVERLY HEAVY...WILL CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH A BIT EARLY.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY GET HUNG UP ACROSS SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT...SO MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS
THERE...WHILE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST THE WANING MOON SHOULD MAKE AN
APPEARANCE TONIGHT. ALL THE WHILE...THE NEXT SYSTEM IS WINDING UP
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IN THE FORM OF A
STRENGTHENING 500MB LOW WITH POPS BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
SOUTH AT THE END OF THE NEAR TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TREND ON 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY WAS TO HAVE THE WEAK
500 MB LOW FURTHER WEST...WITH THE NAM THE FURTHEST WEST.  AS A RESULT...
HAD TO GO WETTER IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
BRING THE CHANCE POPS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
STILL TRY TO KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS INCLUDING
SW VA AND THE SOUTHERN WV PLATEAU REGION VCNTY BKW.  ALSO INCREASED
CLOUDS IN OUR SOUTH AND LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE A BIT OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS FOR SUNDAY.

THE 500 MB TEMPS ARE ONLY A DEGREE OR SO COOLER IN THE 500 MB TROF...SO WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUDS...THUNDER CHANCES WERE MENTIONED...BUT INSTABILITY NOT HIGH.
SOMETIMES IN THIS TYPE OF SUMMER PATTERN THE T APPEARS ON THE PERIPHERY.

THE 500 MB TROF WEAKENS AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST MONDAY...WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONT AND TROF IN THE MIDWEST ACTING AS A KICKER.

CURRENTLY WILL NOT ADD ANY WATER HAZARD IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL...
BUT WITH THE WET TERRAIN IN MANY COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE TO REEVALUATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY KEEPING LOW
CHANCE POPS AS WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING BY. ANY PCPN
WOULD BE MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE MAXIMUM HEATING.
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH SHOULD HELP TO SUPPRESS
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BECOME STRONG.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...CROSSING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CODED HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR
NOW. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WENT WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SLOWLY MOVING SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS WV. IN THE SHOWERS
ACTUALLY SEEING BETTER FLIGHT CONDITIONS THAN ELSEWHERE...AS
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS DENSE FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS FORM QUICKLY.
WEAK BOUNDARY ALSO DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS CWA...WITH IFR CIGS
ALONG AND BEHIND IT. EXPECT SLOW IMPROVEMENT INTO MID MORNING.
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS
TODAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOWER CATEGORIES POSSIBLE IF A SHOWER OR
STORM PASSES OVER A TAF SITE TODAY. TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG AND
STRATUS MAY VARY TONIGHT.

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...IFR EXPECTED IN VALLEY FOG/MOUNTAIN CLOUDS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN WV. IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
AND/OR LOW CEILINGS ALONG EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MZ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 041020
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
620 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO OUR EAST THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY. DRIER AIR TRIES
TO OOZE SOUTHEAST. MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PULLS DEEPER MOISTURE BACK NORTH
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT ARE
PRODUCING EFFICIENT RAIN. THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY
AT THE SURFACE AND A 500MB TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. DRIER AIR WILL TRY
TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...BUT THINK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
GET TRAPPED AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE SLOW
TO LIFT/BREAK UP. SHOWERS WITH MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SINCE
THE PRECIP HAS CLEARED THE WETTEST AREA OF THE CWA...AND IS NOT
OVERLY HEAVY...WILL CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH A BIT EARLY.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY GET HUNG UP ACROSS SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT...SO MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS
THERE...WHILE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST THE WANING MOON SHOULD MAKE AN
APPEARANCE TONIGHT. ALL THE WHILE...THE NEXT SYSTEM IS WINDING UP
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IN THE FORM OF A
STRENGTHENING 500MB LOW WITH POPS BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
SOUTH AT THE END OF THE NEAR TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TREND ON 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY WAS TO HAVE THE WEAK
500 MB LOW FURTHER WEST...WITH THE NAM THE FURTHEST WEST.  AS A RESULT...
HAD TO GO WETTER IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
BRING THE CHANCE POPS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
STILL TRY TO KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS INCLUDING
SW VA AND THE SOUTHERN WV PLATEAU REGION VCNTY BKW.  ALSO INCREASED
CLOUDS IN OUR SOUTH AND LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE A BIT OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS FOR SUNDAY.

THE 500 MB TEMPS ARE ONLY A DEGREE OR SO COOLER IN THE 500 MB TROF...SO WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUDS...THUNDER CHANCES WERE MENTIONED...BUT INSTABILITY NOT HIGH.
SOMETIMES IN THIS TYPE OF SUMMER PATTERN THE T APPEARS ON THE PERIPHERY.

THE 500 MB TROF WEAKENS AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST MONDAY...WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONT AND TROF IN THE MIDWEST ACTING AS A KICKER.

CURRENTLY WILL NOT ADD ANY WATER HAZARD IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL...
BUT WITH THE WET TERRAIN IN MANY COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE TO REEVALUATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY KEEPING LOW
CHANCE POPS AS WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING BY. ANY PCPN
WOULD BE MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE MAXIMUM HEATING.
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH SHOULD HELP TO SUPPRESS
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BECOME STRONG.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...CROSSING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CODED HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR
NOW. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WENT WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SLOWLY MOVING SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS WV. IN THE SHOWERS
ACTUALLY SEEING BETTER FLIGHT CONDITIONS THAN ELSEWHERE...AS
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS DENSE FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS FORM QUICKLY.
WEAK BOUNDARY ALSO DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS CWA...WITH IFR CIGS
ALONG AND BEHIND IT. EXPECT SLOW IMPROVEMENT INTO MID MORNING.
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS
TODAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOWER CATEGORIES POSSIBLE IF A SHOWER OR
STORM PASSES OVER A TAF SITE TODAY. TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG AND
STRATUS MAY VARY TONIGHT.

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...IFR EXPECTED IN VALLEY FOG/MOUNTAIN CLOUDS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN WV. IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
AND/OR LOW CEILINGS ALONG EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MZ



000
FXUS61 KRLX 040813 CCA
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
412 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO OUR EAST THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY. DRIER AIR TRIES
TO OOZE SOUTHEAST. MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PULLS DEEPER MOISTURE BACK NORTH
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SLOW MOVING SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT ARE
PRODUCING EFFICIENT RAIN. THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY
AT THE SURFACE AND A 500MB TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. DRIER AIR WILL TRY
TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...BUT THINK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
GET TRAPPED AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE SLOW
TO LIFT/BREAK UP. SHOWERS WITH MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY GET HUNG UP ACROSS SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT...SO MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS
THERE...WHILE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST THE WANING MOON SHOULD MAKE AN
APPEARANCE TONIGHT. ALL THE WHILE...THE NEXT SYSTEM IS WINDING UP
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IN THE FORM OF A
STRENGTHENING 500MB LOW WITH POPS BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
SOUTH AT THE END OF THE NEAR TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TREND ON 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY WAS TO HAVE THE WEAK
500 MB LOW FURTHER WEST...WITH THE NAM THE FURTHEST WEST.  AS A RESULT...
HAD TO GO WETTER IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
BRING THE CHANCE POPS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
STILL TRY TO KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS INCLUDING
SW VA AND THE SOUTHERN WV PLATEAU REGION VCNTY BKW.  ALSO INCREASED
CLOUDS IN OUR SOUTH AND LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE A BIT OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS FOR SUNDAY.

THE 500 MB TEMPS ARE ONLY A DEGREE OR SO COOLER IN THE 500 MB TROF...SO WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUDS...THUNDER CHANCES WERE MENTIONED...BUT INSTABILITY NOT HIGH.
SOMETIMES IN THIS TYPE OF SUMMER PATTERN THE T APPEARS ON THE PERIPHERY.

THE 500 MB TROF WEAKENS AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST MONDAY...WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONT AND TROF IN THE MIDWEST ACTING AS A KICKER.

CURRENTLY WILL NOT ADD ANY WATER HAZARD IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL...
BUT WITH THE WET TERRAIN IN MANY COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE TO REEVALUATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY KEEPING LOW
CHANCE POPS AS WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING BY. ANY PCPN
WOULD BE MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE MAXIMUM HEATING.
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH SHOULD HELP TO SUPPRESS
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BECOME STRONG.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...CROSSING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CODED HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR
NOW. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WENT WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SLOWLY MOVING SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS WV. IN THE SHOWERS
ACTUALLY SEEING BETTER FLIGHT CONDITIONS THAN ELSEWHERE...AS
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS DENSE FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS FORM QUICKLY.
WEAK BOUNDARY ALSO DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS CWA...WITH IFR CIGS
ALONG AND BEHIND IT. EXPECT IFR TO LIFR TO SETTLE INTO TO ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH EARLY MORNING...WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT INTO MID
MORNING. SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS TODAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG AND STRATUS MAY
VARY TONIGHT.

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...IFR EXPECTED IN VALLEY FOG/MOUNTAIN CLOUDS
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN WV. IFR
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND/OR LOW CEILINGS ALONG EASTERN SLOPES
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ015-016-
     024>027-033>037.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MZ



000
FXUS61 KRLX 040813 CCA
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
412 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO OUR EAST THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY. DRIER AIR TRIES
TO OOZE SOUTHEAST. MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PULLS DEEPER MOISTURE BACK NORTH
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SLOW MOVING SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT ARE
PRODUCING EFFICIENT RAIN. THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY
AT THE SURFACE AND A 500MB TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. DRIER AIR WILL TRY
TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...BUT THINK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
GET TRAPPED AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE SLOW
TO LIFT/BREAK UP. SHOWERS WITH MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY GET HUNG UP ACROSS SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT...SO MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS
THERE...WHILE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST THE WANING MOON SHOULD MAKE AN
APPEARANCE TONIGHT. ALL THE WHILE...THE NEXT SYSTEM IS WINDING UP
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IN THE FORM OF A
STRENGTHENING 500MB LOW WITH POPS BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
SOUTH AT THE END OF THE NEAR TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TREND ON 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY WAS TO HAVE THE WEAK
500 MB LOW FURTHER WEST...WITH THE NAM THE FURTHEST WEST.  AS A RESULT...
HAD TO GO WETTER IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
BRING THE CHANCE POPS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
STILL TRY TO KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS INCLUDING
SW VA AND THE SOUTHERN WV PLATEAU REGION VCNTY BKW.  ALSO INCREASED
CLOUDS IN OUR SOUTH AND LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE A BIT OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS FOR SUNDAY.

THE 500 MB TEMPS ARE ONLY A DEGREE OR SO COOLER IN THE 500 MB TROF...SO WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUDS...THUNDER CHANCES WERE MENTIONED...BUT INSTABILITY NOT HIGH.
SOMETIMES IN THIS TYPE OF SUMMER PATTERN THE T APPEARS ON THE PERIPHERY.

THE 500 MB TROF WEAKENS AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST MONDAY...WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONT AND TROF IN THE MIDWEST ACTING AS A KICKER.

CURRENTLY WILL NOT ADD ANY WATER HAZARD IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL...
BUT WITH THE WET TERRAIN IN MANY COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE TO REEVALUATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY KEEPING LOW
CHANCE POPS AS WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING BY. ANY PCPN
WOULD BE MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE MAXIMUM HEATING.
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH SHOULD HELP TO SUPPRESS
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BECOME STRONG.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...CROSSING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CODED HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR
NOW. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WENT WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SLOWLY MOVING SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS WV. IN THE SHOWERS
ACTUALLY SEEING BETTER FLIGHT CONDITIONS THAN ELSEWHERE...AS
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS DENSE FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS FORM QUICKLY.
WEAK BOUNDARY ALSO DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS CWA...WITH IFR CIGS
ALONG AND BEHIND IT. EXPECT IFR TO LIFR TO SETTLE INTO TO ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH EARLY MORNING...WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT INTO MID
MORNING. SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS TODAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG AND STRATUS MAY
VARY TONIGHT.

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...IFR EXPECTED IN VALLEY FOG/MOUNTAIN CLOUDS
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN WV. IFR
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND/OR LOW CEILINGS ALONG EASTERN SLOPES
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ015-016-
     024>027-033>037.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MZ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 040812
AFDRLX

ZCZC CRWWRKAFD 040810
TTAA00 KCRW DDHHMM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
412 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO OUR EAST THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY. DRIER AIR TRIES
TO OOZE SOUTHEAST. MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PULLS DEEPER MOISTURE BACK NORTH
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SLOW MOVING SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT ARE
PRODUCING EFFICIENT RAIN. THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY
AT THE SURFACE AND A 500MB TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. DRIER AIR WILL TRY
TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...BUT THINK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
GET TRAPPED AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE SLOW
TO LIFT/BREAK UP. SHOWERS WITH MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY GET HUNG UP ACROSS SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT...SO MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS
THERE...WHILE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST THE WANING MOON SHOULD MAKE AN
APPEARANCE TONIGHT. ALL THE WHILE...THE NEXT SYSTEM IS WINDING UP
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IN THE FORM OF A
STRENGTHENING 500MB LOW WITH POPS BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
SOUTH AT THE END OF THE NEAR TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TREND ON 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY WAS TO HAVE THE WEAK
500 MB LOW FURTHER WEST...WITH THE NAM THE FURTHEST WEST.  AS A RESULT...
HAD TO GO WETTER IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
BRING THE CHANCE POPS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
STILL TRY TO KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS INCLUDING
SW VA AND THE SOUTHERN WV PLATEAU REGION VCNTY BKW.  ALSO INCREASED
CLOUDS IN OUR SOUTH AND LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE A BIT OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS FOR SUNDAY.

THE 500 MB TEMPS ARE ONLY A DEGREE OR SO COOLER IN THE 500 MB TROF...SO WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUDS...THUNDER CHANCES WERE MENTIONED...BUT INSTABILITY NOT HIGH.
SOMETIMES IN THIS TYPE OF SUMMER PATTERN THE T APPEARS ON THE PERIPHERY.

THE 500 MB TROF WEAKENS AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST MONDAY...WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONT AND TROF IN THE MIDWEST ACTING AS A KICKER.

CURRENTLY WILL NOT ADD ANY WATER HAZARD IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL...
BUT WITH THE WET TERRAIN IN MANY COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE TO REEVALUATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY KEEPING LOW
CHANCE POPS AS WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING BY. ANY PCPN
WOULD BE MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE MAXIMUM HEATING.
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH SHOULD HELP TO SUPPRESS
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BECOME STRONG.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...CROSSING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CODED HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR
NOW. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WENT WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SLOWLY MOVING SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS WV. IN THE SHOWERS
ACTUALLY SEEING BETTER FLIGHT CONDITIONS THAN ELSEWHERE...AS
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS DENSE FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS FORM QUICKLY.
WEAK BOUNDARY ALSO DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS CWA...WITH IFR CIGS
ALONG AND BEHIND IT. EXPECT IFR TO LIFR TO SETTLE INTO TO ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH EARLY MORNING...WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT INTO MID
MORNING. SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS TODAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG AND STRATUS MAY
VARY TONIGHT.

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...IFR EXPECTED IN VALLEY FOG/MOUNTAIN CLOUDS
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN WV. IFR
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND/OR LOW CEILINGS ALONG EASTERN SLOPES
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ015-016-
     024>027-033>037.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MZ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 040812
AFDRLX

ZCZC CRWWRKAFD 040810
TTAA00 KCRW DDHHMM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
412 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO OUR EAST THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY. DRIER AIR TRIES
TO OOZE SOUTHEAST. MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PULLS DEEPER MOISTURE BACK NORTH
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SLOW MOVING SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT ARE
PRODUCING EFFICIENT RAIN. THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY
AT THE SURFACE AND A 500MB TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. DRIER AIR WILL TRY
TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...BUT THINK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
GET TRAPPED AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE SLOW
TO LIFT/BREAK UP. SHOWERS WITH MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY GET HUNG UP ACROSS SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT...SO MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS
THERE...WHILE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST THE WANING MOON SHOULD MAKE AN
APPEARANCE TONIGHT. ALL THE WHILE...THE NEXT SYSTEM IS WINDING UP
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IN THE FORM OF A
STRENGTHENING 500MB LOW WITH POPS BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
SOUTH AT THE END OF THE NEAR TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TREND ON 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY WAS TO HAVE THE WEAK
500 MB LOW FURTHER WEST...WITH THE NAM THE FURTHEST WEST.  AS A RESULT...
HAD TO GO WETTER IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
BRING THE CHANCE POPS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
STILL TRY TO KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS INCLUDING
SW VA AND THE SOUTHERN WV PLATEAU REGION VCNTY BKW.  ALSO INCREASED
CLOUDS IN OUR SOUTH AND LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE A BIT OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS FOR SUNDAY.

THE 500 MB TEMPS ARE ONLY A DEGREE OR SO COOLER IN THE 500 MB TROF...SO WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUDS...THUNDER CHANCES WERE MENTIONED...BUT INSTABILITY NOT HIGH.
SOMETIMES IN THIS TYPE OF SUMMER PATTERN THE T APPEARS ON THE PERIPHERY.

THE 500 MB TROF WEAKENS AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST MONDAY...WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONT AND TROF IN THE MIDWEST ACTING AS A KICKER.

CURRENTLY WILL NOT ADD ANY WATER HAZARD IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL...
BUT WITH THE WET TERRAIN IN MANY COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE TO REEVALUATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY KEEPING LOW
CHANCE POPS AS WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING BY. ANY PCPN
WOULD BE MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE MAXIMUM HEATING.
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH SHOULD HELP TO SUPPRESS
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BECOME STRONG.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...CROSSING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CODED HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR
NOW. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WENT WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SLOWLY MOVING SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS WV. IN THE SHOWERS
ACTUALLY SEEING BETTER FLIGHT CONDITIONS THAN ELSEWHERE...AS
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS DENSE FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS FORM QUICKLY.
WEAK BOUNDARY ALSO DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS CWA...WITH IFR CIGS
ALONG AND BEHIND IT. EXPECT IFR TO LIFR TO SETTLE INTO TO ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH EARLY MORNING...WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT INTO MID
MORNING. SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS TODAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG AND STRATUS MAY
VARY TONIGHT.

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...IFR EXPECTED IN VALLEY FOG/MOUNTAIN CLOUDS
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN WV. IFR
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND/OR LOW CEILINGS ALONG EASTERN SLOPES
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ015-016-
     024>027-033>037.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MZ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 040812
AFDRLX

ZCZC CRWWRKAFD 040810
TTAA00 KCRW DDHHMM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
412 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO OUR EAST THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY. DRIER AIR TRIES
TO OOZE SOUTHEAST. MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PULLS DEEPER MOISTURE BACK NORTH
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SLOW MOVING SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT ARE
PRODUCING EFFICIENT RAIN. THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY
AT THE SURFACE AND A 500MB TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. DRIER AIR WILL TRY
TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...BUT THINK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
GET TRAPPED AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE SLOW
TO LIFT/BREAK UP. SHOWERS WITH MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY GET HUNG UP ACROSS SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT...SO MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS
THERE...WHILE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST THE WANING MOON SHOULD MAKE AN
APPEARANCE TONIGHT. ALL THE WHILE...THE NEXT SYSTEM IS WINDING UP
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IN THE FORM OF A
STRENGTHENING 500MB LOW WITH POPS BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
SOUTH AT THE END OF THE NEAR TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TREND ON 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY WAS TO HAVE THE WEAK
500 MB LOW FURTHER WEST...WITH THE NAM THE FURTHEST WEST.  AS A RESULT...
HAD TO GO WETTER IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
BRING THE CHANCE POPS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
STILL TRY TO KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS INCLUDING
SW VA AND THE SOUTHERN WV PLATEAU REGION VCNTY BKW.  ALSO INCREASED
CLOUDS IN OUR SOUTH AND LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE A BIT OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS FOR SUNDAY.

THE 500 MB TEMPS ARE ONLY A DEGREE OR SO COOLER IN THE 500 MB TROF...SO WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUDS...THUNDER CHANCES WERE MENTIONED...BUT INSTABILITY NOT HIGH.
SOMETIMES IN THIS TYPE OF SUMMER PATTERN THE T APPEARS ON THE PERIPHERY.

THE 500 MB TROF WEAKENS AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST MONDAY...WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONT AND TROF IN THE MIDWEST ACTING AS A KICKER.

CURRENTLY WILL NOT ADD ANY WATER HAZARD IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL...
BUT WITH THE WET TERRAIN IN MANY COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE TO REEVALUATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY KEEPING LOW
CHANCE POPS AS WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING BY. ANY PCPN
WOULD BE MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE MAXIMUM HEATING.
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH SHOULD HELP TO SUPPRESS
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BECOME STRONG.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...CROSSING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CODED HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR
NOW. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WENT WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SLOWLY MOVING SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS WV. IN THE SHOWERS
ACTUALLY SEEING BETTER FLIGHT CONDITIONS THAN ELSEWHERE...AS
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS DENSE FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS FORM QUICKLY.
WEAK BOUNDARY ALSO DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS CWA...WITH IFR CIGS
ALONG AND BEHIND IT. EXPECT IFR TO LIFR TO SETTLE INTO TO ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH EARLY MORNING...WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT INTO MID
MORNING. SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS TODAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG AND STRATUS MAY
VARY TONIGHT.

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...IFR EXPECTED IN VALLEY FOG/MOUNTAIN CLOUDS
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN WV. IFR
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND/OR LOW CEILINGS ALONG EASTERN SLOPES
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ015-016-
     024>027-033>037.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MZ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 040812
AFDRLX

ZCZC CRWWRKAFD 040810
TTAA00 KCRW DDHHMM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
412 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO OUR EAST THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY. DRIER AIR TRIES
TO OOZE SOUTHEAST. MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PULLS DEEPER MOISTURE BACK NORTH
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SLOW MOVING SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT ARE
PRODUCING EFFICIENT RAIN. THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY
AT THE SURFACE AND A 500MB TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. DRIER AIR WILL TRY
TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...BUT THINK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
GET TRAPPED AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE SLOW
TO LIFT/BREAK UP. SHOWERS WITH MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY GET HUNG UP ACROSS SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT...SO MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS
THERE...WHILE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST THE WANING MOON SHOULD MAKE AN
APPEARANCE TONIGHT. ALL THE WHILE...THE NEXT SYSTEM IS WINDING UP
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IN THE FORM OF A
STRENGTHENING 500MB LOW WITH POPS BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
SOUTH AT THE END OF THE NEAR TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TREND ON 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY WAS TO HAVE THE WEAK
500 MB LOW FURTHER WEST...WITH THE NAM THE FURTHEST WEST.  AS A RESULT...
HAD TO GO WETTER IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
BRING THE CHANCE POPS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
STILL TRY TO KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS INCLUDING
SW VA AND THE SOUTHERN WV PLATEAU REGION VCNTY BKW.  ALSO INCREASED
CLOUDS IN OUR SOUTH AND LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE A BIT OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS FOR SUNDAY.

THE 500 MB TEMPS ARE ONLY A DEGREE OR SO COOLER IN THE 500 MB TROF...SO WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUDS...THUNDER CHANCES WERE MENTIONED...BUT INSTABILITY NOT HIGH.
SOMETIMES IN THIS TYPE OF SUMMER PATTERN THE T APPEARS ON THE PERIPHERY.

THE 500 MB TROF WEAKENS AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST MONDAY...WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONT AND TROF IN THE MIDWEST ACTING AS A KICKER.

CURRENTLY WILL NOT ADD ANY WATER HAZARD IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL...
BUT WITH THE WET TERRAIN IN MANY COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE TO REEVALUATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY KEEPING LOW
CHANCE POPS AS WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING BY. ANY PCPN
WOULD BE MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE MAXIMUM HEATING.
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH SHOULD HELP TO SUPPRESS
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BECOME STRONG.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...CROSSING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CODED HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR
NOW. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WENT WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SLOWLY MOVING SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS WV. IN THE SHOWERS
ACTUALLY SEEING BETTER FLIGHT CONDITIONS THAN ELSEWHERE...AS
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS DENSE FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS FORM QUICKLY.
WEAK BOUNDARY ALSO DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS CWA...WITH IFR CIGS
ALONG AND BEHIND IT. EXPECT IFR TO LIFR TO SETTLE INTO TO ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH EARLY MORNING...WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT INTO MID
MORNING. SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS TODAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG AND STRATUS MAY
VARY TONIGHT.

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...IFR EXPECTED IN VALLEY FOG/MOUNTAIN CLOUDS
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN WV. IFR
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND/OR LOW CEILINGS ALONG EASTERN SLOPES
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ015-016-
     024>027-033>037.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MZ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 040526
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
126 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH AREA TONIGHT...THEN TO OUR EAST ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. DRIER AIR TRIES TO OOZE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY-MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
815 PM UPDATE...EXTENDED HIGHER POPS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT TO
MAINLY FOLLOW THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM. FRONT AT 8 PM
BASICALLY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...SO BEST POPS ARE TO THE EAST.
FRONT REACHES MOUNTAINS BY 10Z...BUT CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY
DECREASING BY 06Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BAGGY SFC LOW SLOWLY MOVING THRU KY THIS AFTN. CONVECTION HAS
FIRED AHEAD OF DECAYING MCV CROSSING SW VA. THIS BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION EXTENDS NW INTO SE OH AS OF 18Z. SOME GOOD DUMPERS OVER
KANAWHA VALLEY THE NEXT FEW HRS...WITH AREAS FURTHER N GETTING IN
ON THE ACTION LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE. ONCE THE LOW TRACKS ALONG OH
RIVER THIS EVE...EXPECT BULK OF THE ACTIVITY TO DEPART WITH
IT...LEAVING MUCH LESS COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA OVER THE AREA.
STILL...WITH THE UPR TROF YET TO CROSS AND THE SFC BOUNDARY
LINGERING...WAS HESITANT ON LETTING E EXTENT OF THE WATCH GO AT
00Z. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS...EXTENDED TO 12Z WHILE
LETTING W PORTION OF THE WATCH EXPIRE ON TIME. IT IS ENTIRELY
POSSIBLY EVEN THE E PART OF THE WATCH CAN BE LET GO BEFORE 12Z.

THINK LOW STRATUS WILL SETTLE IN OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY AREAS OF
DENSE FOG IN THIS MOIST LOW FLOW ENVIRONMENT. DRIER AIR WILL BE
ADVECTING INTO SE OH NEAR DAWN...BUT WILL BE STUBBORN TO MAKE MUCH
FURTHER SE PROGRESS UNTIL MIDDAY. AS SUCH...HELD THE LOW CLOUDS E
OF THE OH RIVER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...CLOSER TO THE OLD BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT MOVE SOUTH AND STALLS ALONG THE WV/KY BORDER BY 00Z
SUNDAY.  THE NAM/ECMWF/GFS/CMC MODELS BRING DRIER AIR AT ALL LEVELS
SUGGESTING CLEARING SKIES SPREADING FROM NORTHWEST TO CENTRAL WV
SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS ALSO SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ABOUT 5 KNOTS
FOR THE SAME TIME PERIOD. THEREFORE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
SATURDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR SOME LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING AROUND PKB
SOUTH AND EAST TO CRW AND CKB AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND FOG DEVELOPING
ALONG RIVER VALLEYS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS SUNDAY MORNING. KEPT
CLOUDS AND LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CAN GET TRAPPED OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES AND EXTREME
SOUTHERN SECTIONS WHERE WILL BE CLOSER TO AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH
OF THE AREA. ANY PCPN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY
WHILE A SHORT WAVE AT H500 MOVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WAVE
WILL BRING CHANCE POPS BACK NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN WV AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES FOR PCPN FURTHER NORTH THROUGH
MONDAY MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WENT WITH A BLEND OF NAM AND SREF FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GENERALLY...HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S LOWLANDS RANGING
INTO THE MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL WILL BE IN THE MID
TO LOW 60S...EXCEPT INT HE UPPER 50S OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY KEEPING LOW
CHANCE POPS AS WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING BY. ANY PCPN
WOULD BE MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE MAXIMUM HEATING.
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH SHOULD HELP TO SUPPRESS
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BECOME STRONG.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...CROSSING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CODED HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR
NOW. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WENT WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SLOWLY MOVING SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS WV. IN THE SHOWERS
ACTUALLY SEEING BETTER FLIGHT CONDITIONS THAN ELSEWHERE...AS
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS DENSE FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS FORM QUICKLY.
WEAK BOUNDARY ALSO DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS CWA...WITH IFR CIGS
ALONG AND BEHIND IT. EXPECT IFR TO LIFR TO SETTLE INTO TO ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH EARLY MORNING...WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT INTO MID
MORNING. SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS TODAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG AND STRATUS MAY
VARY TONIGHT.

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...IFR EXPECTED IN VALLEY FOG/MOUNTAIN CLOUDS
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN WV. IFR
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND/OR LOW CEILINGS ALONG EASTERN SLOPES
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ015-016-
     024>027-033>037.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/30
NEAR TERM...JMV/30
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MZ



000
FXUS61 KRLX 040526
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
126 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH AREA TONIGHT...THEN TO OUR EAST ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. DRIER AIR TRIES TO OOZE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY-MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
815 PM UPDATE...EXTENDED HIGHER POPS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT TO
MAINLY FOLLOW THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM. FRONT AT 8 PM
BASICALLY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...SO BEST POPS ARE TO THE EAST.
FRONT REACHES MOUNTAINS BY 10Z...BUT CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY
DECREASING BY 06Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BAGGY SFC LOW SLOWLY MOVING THRU KY THIS AFTN. CONVECTION HAS
FIRED AHEAD OF DECAYING MCV CROSSING SW VA. THIS BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION EXTENDS NW INTO SE OH AS OF 18Z. SOME GOOD DUMPERS OVER
KANAWHA VALLEY THE NEXT FEW HRS...WITH AREAS FURTHER N GETTING IN
ON THE ACTION LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE. ONCE THE LOW TRACKS ALONG OH
RIVER THIS EVE...EXPECT BULK OF THE ACTIVITY TO DEPART WITH
IT...LEAVING MUCH LESS COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA OVER THE AREA.
STILL...WITH THE UPR TROF YET TO CROSS AND THE SFC BOUNDARY
LINGERING...WAS HESITANT ON LETTING E EXTENT OF THE WATCH GO AT
00Z. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS...EXTENDED TO 12Z WHILE
LETTING W PORTION OF THE WATCH EXPIRE ON TIME. IT IS ENTIRELY
POSSIBLY EVEN THE E PART OF THE WATCH CAN BE LET GO BEFORE 12Z.

THINK LOW STRATUS WILL SETTLE IN OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY AREAS OF
DENSE FOG IN THIS MOIST LOW FLOW ENVIRONMENT. DRIER AIR WILL BE
ADVECTING INTO SE OH NEAR DAWN...BUT WILL BE STUBBORN TO MAKE MUCH
FURTHER SE PROGRESS UNTIL MIDDAY. AS SUCH...HELD THE LOW CLOUDS E
OF THE OH RIVER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...CLOSER TO THE OLD BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT MOVE SOUTH AND STALLS ALONG THE WV/KY BORDER BY 00Z
SUNDAY.  THE NAM/ECMWF/GFS/CMC MODELS BRING DRIER AIR AT ALL LEVELS
SUGGESTING CLEARING SKIES SPREADING FROM NORTHWEST TO CENTRAL WV
SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS ALSO SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ABOUT 5 KNOTS
FOR THE SAME TIME PERIOD. THEREFORE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
SATURDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR SOME LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING AROUND PKB
SOUTH AND EAST TO CRW AND CKB AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND FOG DEVELOPING
ALONG RIVER VALLEYS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS SUNDAY MORNING. KEPT
CLOUDS AND LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CAN GET TRAPPED OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES AND EXTREME
SOUTHERN SECTIONS WHERE WILL BE CLOSER TO AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH
OF THE AREA. ANY PCPN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY
WHILE A SHORT WAVE AT H500 MOVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WAVE
WILL BRING CHANCE POPS BACK NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN WV AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES FOR PCPN FURTHER NORTH THROUGH
MONDAY MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WENT WITH A BLEND OF NAM AND SREF FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GENERALLY...HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S LOWLANDS RANGING
INTO THE MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL WILL BE IN THE MID
TO LOW 60S...EXCEPT INT HE UPPER 50S OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY KEEPING LOW
CHANCE POPS AS WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING BY. ANY PCPN
WOULD BE MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE MAXIMUM HEATING.
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH SHOULD HELP TO SUPPRESS
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BECOME STRONG.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...CROSSING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CODED HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR
NOW. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WENT WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SLOWLY MOVING SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS WV. IN THE SHOWERS
ACTUALLY SEEING BETTER FLIGHT CONDITIONS THAN ELSEWHERE...AS
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS DENSE FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS FORM QUICKLY.
WEAK BOUNDARY ALSO DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS CWA...WITH IFR CIGS
ALONG AND BEHIND IT. EXPECT IFR TO LIFR TO SETTLE INTO TO ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH EARLY MORNING...WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT INTO MID
MORNING. SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS TODAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG AND STRATUS MAY
VARY TONIGHT.

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...IFR EXPECTED IN VALLEY FOG/MOUNTAIN CLOUDS
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN WV. IFR
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND/OR LOW CEILINGS ALONG EASTERN SLOPES
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ015-016-
     024>027-033>037.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/30
NEAR TERM...JMV/30
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MZ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 040048
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
848 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH AREA TONIGHT...THEN TO OUR EAST ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. DRIER AIR TRIES TO OOZE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY-MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
815 PM UPDATE...EXTENDED HIGHER POPS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT TO
MAINLY FOLLOW THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM. FRONT AT 8 PM
BASICALLY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...SO BEST POPS ARE TO THE EAST.
FRONT REACHES MOUNTAINS BY 10Z...BUT CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY
DECREASING BY 06Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BAGGY SFC LOW SLOWLY MOVING THRU KY THIS AFTN. CONVECTION HAS
FIRED AHEAD OF DECAYING MCV CROSSING SW VA. THIS BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION EXTENDS NW INTO SE OH AS OF 18Z. SOME GOOD DUMPERS OVER
KANAWHA VALLEY THE NEXT FEW HRS...WITH AREAS FURTHER N GETTING IN
ON THE ACTION LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE. ONCE THE LOW TRACKS ALONG OH
RIVER THIS EVE...EXPECT BULK OF THE ACTIVITY TO DEPART WITH
IT...LEAVING MUCH LESS COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA OVER THE AREA.
STILL...WITH THE UPR TROF YET TO CROSS AND THE SFC BOUNDARY
LINGERING...WAS HESITANT ON LETTING E EXTENT OF THE WATCH GO AT
00Z. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS...EXTENDED TO 12Z WHILE
LETTING W PORTION OF THE WATCH EXPIRE ON TIME. IT IS ENTIRELY
POSSIBLY EVEN THE E PART OF THE WATCH CAN BE LET GO BEFORE 12Z.

THINK LOW STRATUS WILL SETTLE IN OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY AREAS OF
DENSE FOG IN THIS MOIST LOW FLOW ENVIRONMENT. DRIER AIR WILL BE
ADVECTING INTO SE OH NEAR DAWN...BUT WILL BE STUBBORN TO MAKE MUCH
FURTHER SE PROGRESS UNTIL MIDDAY. AS SUCH...HELD THE LOW CLOUDS E
OF THE OH RIVER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...CLOSER TO THE OLD BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT MOVE SOUTH AND STALLS ALONG THE WV/KY BORDER BY 00Z
SUNDAY.  THE NAM/ECMWF/GFS/CMC MODELS BRING DRIER AIR AT ALL LEVELS
SUGGESTING CLEARING SKIES SPREADING FROM NORTHWEST TO CENTRAL WV
SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS ALSO SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ABOUT 5 KNOTS
FOR THE SAME TIME PERIOD. THEREFORE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
SATURDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR SOME LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING AROUND PKB
SOUTH AND EAST TO CRW AND CKB AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND FOG DEVELOPING
ALONG RIVER VALLEYS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS SUNDAY MORNING. KEPT
CLOUDS AND LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CAN GET TRAPPED OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES AND EXTREME
SOUTHERN SECTIONS WHERE WILL BE CLOSER TO AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH
OF THE AREA. ANY PCPN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY
WHILE A SHORT WAVE AT H500 MOVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WAVE
WILL BRING CHANCE POPS BACK NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN WV AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES FOR PCPN FURTHER NORTH THROUGH
MONDAY MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WENT WITH A BLEND OF NAM AND SREF FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GENERALLY...HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S LOWLANDS RANGING
INTO THE MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL WILL BE IN THE MID
TO LOW 60S...EXCEPT INT HE UPPER 50S OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY KEEPING LOW
CHANCE POPS AS WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING BY. ANY PCPN
WOULD BE MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE MAXIMUM HEATING.
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH SHOULD HELP TO SUPPRESS
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BECOME STRONG.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...CROSSING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CODED HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR
NOW. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WENT WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
00Z SATURDAY THRU 00Z SUNDAY...
SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM AT 00Z BASICALLY ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER. VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MOSTLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...THROUGH THESE WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. BY 12Z...BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE IN SOUTHEAST
WV.

WITH THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EARLIER...THE VERY MOIST AIR AND
WET GROUND...EXPECT A GENERAL LOWERING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY TO
IFR/LIFR BY 06Z AT THE MAJOR TERMINALS. CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE
AFTER 13Z FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TO MVFR AND FINALLY TO VFR
CEILINGS. LOOK FOR VFR TO OCCUR BY 18Z IN THE WEST AND BY 22Z IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z
SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF DOWNPOURS AND STORM
EARLY TONIGHT MAY VARY. SPATIAL EXTENT AND TIMING OF FOG AND
STRATUS IN QUESTION TONIGHT...IN ADDITION TO IMPROVEMENT SATURDAY.

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...IFR EXPECTED IN VALLEY FOG/MOUNTAIN CLOUDS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN WV. IFR POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS AND/OR LOW CEILINGS ALONG EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&


.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ015-016-
     024>027-033>037.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/30
NEAR TERM...JMV/30
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JMV




000
FXUS61 KRLX 040048
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
848 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH AREA TONIGHT...THEN TO OUR EAST ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. DRIER AIR TRIES TO OOZE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY-MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
815 PM UPDATE...EXTENDED HIGHER POPS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT TO
MAINLY FOLLOW THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM. FRONT AT 8 PM
BASICALLY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...SO BEST POPS ARE TO THE EAST.
FRONT REACHES MOUNTAINS BY 10Z...BUT CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY
DECREASING BY 06Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BAGGY SFC LOW SLOWLY MOVING THRU KY THIS AFTN. CONVECTION HAS
FIRED AHEAD OF DECAYING MCV CROSSING SW VA. THIS BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION EXTENDS NW INTO SE OH AS OF 18Z. SOME GOOD DUMPERS OVER
KANAWHA VALLEY THE NEXT FEW HRS...WITH AREAS FURTHER N GETTING IN
ON THE ACTION LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE. ONCE THE LOW TRACKS ALONG OH
RIVER THIS EVE...EXPECT BULK OF THE ACTIVITY TO DEPART WITH
IT...LEAVING MUCH LESS COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA OVER THE AREA.
STILL...WITH THE UPR TROF YET TO CROSS AND THE SFC BOUNDARY
LINGERING...WAS HESITANT ON LETTING E EXTENT OF THE WATCH GO AT
00Z. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS...EXTENDED TO 12Z WHILE
LETTING W PORTION OF THE WATCH EXPIRE ON TIME. IT IS ENTIRELY
POSSIBLY EVEN THE E PART OF THE WATCH CAN BE LET GO BEFORE 12Z.

THINK LOW STRATUS WILL SETTLE IN OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY AREAS OF
DENSE FOG IN THIS MOIST LOW FLOW ENVIRONMENT. DRIER AIR WILL BE
ADVECTING INTO SE OH NEAR DAWN...BUT WILL BE STUBBORN TO MAKE MUCH
FURTHER SE PROGRESS UNTIL MIDDAY. AS SUCH...HELD THE LOW CLOUDS E
OF THE OH RIVER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...CLOSER TO THE OLD BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT MOVE SOUTH AND STALLS ALONG THE WV/KY BORDER BY 00Z
SUNDAY.  THE NAM/ECMWF/GFS/CMC MODELS BRING DRIER AIR AT ALL LEVELS
SUGGESTING CLEARING SKIES SPREADING FROM NORTHWEST TO CENTRAL WV
SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS ALSO SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ABOUT 5 KNOTS
FOR THE SAME TIME PERIOD. THEREFORE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
SATURDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR SOME LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING AROUND PKB
SOUTH AND EAST TO CRW AND CKB AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND FOG DEVELOPING
ALONG RIVER VALLEYS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS SUNDAY MORNING. KEPT
CLOUDS AND LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CAN GET TRAPPED OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES AND EXTREME
SOUTHERN SECTIONS WHERE WILL BE CLOSER TO AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH
OF THE AREA. ANY PCPN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY
WHILE A SHORT WAVE AT H500 MOVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WAVE
WILL BRING CHANCE POPS BACK NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN WV AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES FOR PCPN FURTHER NORTH THROUGH
MONDAY MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WENT WITH A BLEND OF NAM AND SREF FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GENERALLY...HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S LOWLANDS RANGING
INTO THE MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL WILL BE IN THE MID
TO LOW 60S...EXCEPT INT HE UPPER 50S OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY KEEPING LOW
CHANCE POPS AS WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING BY. ANY PCPN
WOULD BE MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE MAXIMUM HEATING.
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH SHOULD HELP TO SUPPRESS
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BECOME STRONG.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...CROSSING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CODED HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR
NOW. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WENT WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
00Z SATURDAY THRU 00Z SUNDAY...
SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM AT 00Z BASICALLY ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER. VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MOSTLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...THROUGH THESE WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. BY 12Z...BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE IN SOUTHEAST
WV.

WITH THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EARLIER...THE VERY MOIST AIR AND
WET GROUND...EXPECT A GENERAL LOWERING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY TO
IFR/LIFR BY 06Z AT THE MAJOR TERMINALS. CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE
AFTER 13Z FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TO MVFR AND FINALLY TO VFR
CEILINGS. LOOK FOR VFR TO OCCUR BY 18Z IN THE WEST AND BY 22Z IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z
SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF DOWNPOURS AND STORM
EARLY TONIGHT MAY VARY. SPATIAL EXTENT AND TIMING OF FOG AND
STRATUS IN QUESTION TONIGHT...IN ADDITION TO IMPROVEMENT SATURDAY.

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...IFR EXPECTED IN VALLEY FOG/MOUNTAIN CLOUDS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN WV. IFR POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS AND/OR LOW CEILINGS ALONG EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&


.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ015-016-
     024>027-033>037.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/30
NEAR TERM...JMV/30
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JMV



000
FXUS61 KRLX 040048
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
848 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH AREA TONIGHT...THEN TO OUR EAST ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. DRIER AIR TRIES TO OOZE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY-MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
815 PM UPDATE...EXTENDED HIGHER POPS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT TO
MAINLY FOLLOW THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM. FRONT AT 8 PM
BASICALLY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...SO BEST POPS ARE TO THE EAST.
FRONT REACHES MOUNTAINS BY 10Z...BUT CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY
DECREASING BY 06Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BAGGY SFC LOW SLOWLY MOVING THRU KY THIS AFTN. CONVECTION HAS
FIRED AHEAD OF DECAYING MCV CROSSING SW VA. THIS BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION EXTENDS NW INTO SE OH AS OF 18Z. SOME GOOD DUMPERS OVER
KANAWHA VALLEY THE NEXT FEW HRS...WITH AREAS FURTHER N GETTING IN
ON THE ACTION LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE. ONCE THE LOW TRACKS ALONG OH
RIVER THIS EVE...EXPECT BULK OF THE ACTIVITY TO DEPART WITH
IT...LEAVING MUCH LESS COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA OVER THE AREA.
STILL...WITH THE UPR TROF YET TO CROSS AND THE SFC BOUNDARY
LINGERING...WAS HESITANT ON LETTING E EXTENT OF THE WATCH GO AT
00Z. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS...EXTENDED TO 12Z WHILE
LETTING W PORTION OF THE WATCH EXPIRE ON TIME. IT IS ENTIRELY
POSSIBLY EVEN THE E PART OF THE WATCH CAN BE LET GO BEFORE 12Z.

THINK LOW STRATUS WILL SETTLE IN OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY AREAS OF
DENSE FOG IN THIS MOIST LOW FLOW ENVIRONMENT. DRIER AIR WILL BE
ADVECTING INTO SE OH NEAR DAWN...BUT WILL BE STUBBORN TO MAKE MUCH
FURTHER SE PROGRESS UNTIL MIDDAY. AS SUCH...HELD THE LOW CLOUDS E
OF THE OH RIVER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...CLOSER TO THE OLD BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT MOVE SOUTH AND STALLS ALONG THE WV/KY BORDER BY 00Z
SUNDAY.  THE NAM/ECMWF/GFS/CMC MODELS BRING DRIER AIR AT ALL LEVELS
SUGGESTING CLEARING SKIES SPREADING FROM NORTHWEST TO CENTRAL WV
SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS ALSO SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ABOUT 5 KNOTS
FOR THE SAME TIME PERIOD. THEREFORE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
SATURDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR SOME LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING AROUND PKB
SOUTH AND EAST TO CRW AND CKB AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND FOG DEVELOPING
ALONG RIVER VALLEYS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS SUNDAY MORNING. KEPT
CLOUDS AND LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CAN GET TRAPPED OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES AND EXTREME
SOUTHERN SECTIONS WHERE WILL BE CLOSER TO AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH
OF THE AREA. ANY PCPN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY
WHILE A SHORT WAVE AT H500 MOVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WAVE
WILL BRING CHANCE POPS BACK NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN WV AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES FOR PCPN FURTHER NORTH THROUGH
MONDAY MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WENT WITH A BLEND OF NAM AND SREF FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GENERALLY...HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S LOWLANDS RANGING
INTO THE MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL WILL BE IN THE MID
TO LOW 60S...EXCEPT INT HE UPPER 50S OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY KEEPING LOW
CHANCE POPS AS WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING BY. ANY PCPN
WOULD BE MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE MAXIMUM HEATING.
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH SHOULD HELP TO SUPPRESS
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BECOME STRONG.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...CROSSING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CODED HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR
NOW. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WENT WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
00Z SATURDAY THRU 00Z SUNDAY...
SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM AT 00Z BASICALLY ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER. VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MOSTLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...THROUGH THESE WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. BY 12Z...BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE IN SOUTHEAST
WV.

WITH THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EARLIER...THE VERY MOIST AIR AND
WET GROUND...EXPECT A GENERAL LOWERING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY TO
IFR/LIFR BY 06Z AT THE MAJOR TERMINALS. CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE
AFTER 13Z FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TO MVFR AND FINALLY TO VFR
CEILINGS. LOOK FOR VFR TO OCCUR BY 18Z IN THE WEST AND BY 22Z IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z
SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF DOWNPOURS AND STORM
EARLY TONIGHT MAY VARY. SPATIAL EXTENT AND TIMING OF FOG AND
STRATUS IN QUESTION TONIGHT...IN ADDITION TO IMPROVEMENT SATURDAY.

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...IFR EXPECTED IN VALLEY FOG/MOUNTAIN CLOUDS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN WV. IFR POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS AND/OR LOW CEILINGS ALONG EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&


.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ015-016-
     024>027-033>037.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/30
NEAR TERM...JMV/30
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JMV




000
FXUS61 KRLX 031945
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
345 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH AREA TONIGHT...THEN TO OUR EAST ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. DRIER AIR TRIES TO OOZE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY-MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BAGGY SFC LOW SLOWLY MOVING THRU KY THIS AFTN. CONVECTION HAS
FIRED AHEAD OF DECAYING MCV CROSSING SW VA. THIS BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION EXTENDS NW INTO SE OH AS OF 18Z. SOME GOOD DUMPERS OVER
KANAWHA VALLEY THE NEXT FEW HRS...WITH AREAS FURTHER N GETTING IN
ON THE ACTION LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE. ONCE THE LOW TRACKS ALONG OH
RIVER THIS EVE...EXPECT BULK OF THE ACTIVITY TO DEPART WITH
IT...LEAVING MUCH LESS COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA OVER THE AREA.
STILL...WITH THE UPR TROF YET TO CROSS AND THE SFC BOUNDARY
LINGERING...WAS HESITANT ON LETTING E EXTENT OF THE WATCH GO AT
00Z. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS...EXTENDED TO 12Z WHILE
LETTING W PORTION OF THE WATCH EXPIRE ON TIME. IT IS ENTIRELY
POSSIBLY EVEN THE E PART OF THE WATCH CAN BE LET GO BEFORE 12Z.

THINK LOW STRATUS WILL SETTLE IN OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY AREAS OF
DENSE FOG IN THIS MOIST LOW FLOW ENVIRONMENT. DRIER AIR WILL BE
ADVECTING INTO SE OH NEAR DAWN...BUT WILL BE STUBBORN TO MAKE MUCH
FURTHER SE PROGRESS UNTIL MIDDAY. AS SUCH...HELD THE LOW CLOUDS E
OF THE OH RIVER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...CLOSER TO THE OLD BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT MOVE SOUTH AND STALLS ALONG THE WV/KY BORDER BY 00Z
SUNDAY.  THE NAM/ECMWF/GFS/CMC MODELS BRING DRIER AIR AT ALL LEVELS
SUGGESTING CLEARING SKIES SPREADING FROM NORTHWEST TO CENTRAL WV
SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS ALSO SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ABOUT 5 KNOTS
FOR THE SAME TIME PERIOD. THEREFORE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
SATURDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR SOME LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING AROUND PKB
SOUTH AND EAST TO CRW AND CKB AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND FOG DEVELOPING
ALONG RIVER VALLEYS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS SUNDAY MORNING. KEPT
CLOUDS AND LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CAN GET TRAPPED OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES AND EXTREME
SOUTHERN SECTIONS WHERE WILL BE CLOSER TO AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH
OF THE AREA. ANY PCPN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY
WHILE A SHORT WAVE AT H500 MOVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WAVE
WILL BRING CHANCE POPS BACK NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN WV AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES FOR PCPN FURTHER NORTH THROUGH
MONDAY MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WENT WITH A BLEND OF NAM AND SREF FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GENERALLY...HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S LOWLANDS RANGING
INTO THE MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL WILL BE IN THE MID
TO LOW 60S...EXCEPT INT HE UPPER 50S OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY KEEPING LOW
CHANCE POPS AS WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING BY. ANY PCPN
WOULD BE MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE MAXIMUM HEATING.
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH SHOULD HELP TO SUPPRESS
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BECOME STRONG.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...CROSSING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CODED HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR
NOW. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WENT WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTN WITH
MVFR CIGS/VSBY AND LOCALIZED IFR. TOUGH TO FIGURE OUT WHICH
TERMINALS GET HIT WITH STRONGER CELLS...THUS HELD TEMPO IFR OUT
SAVE FOR FIRST HR IN HTS.

SFC LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK UP THE OH RIVER THIS EVENING...TAKING
BULK OF THE SHRA/TSRA WITH IT. SO...EXPECT COVERAGE OF PRECIP TO
SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE BY 06Z...IF NOT SOONER. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LEFT BEHIND WILL SLOWLY TRACK SE INTO THE MTNS BY 12Z. EXPECT IFR
OR WORSE STRATUS TO SETTLE IN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH MVFR FG
AS WELL. DRIER AIR WILL BE SLOW TO ADVECT IN UNTIL TOMORROW AFTN.
THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP AT MVFR CIGS FOR MOST TAF SITES UNTIL MIDDAY
OR LONGER. EXPECT IFR CIGS TO HOLD AT KBKW THE LONGEST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z
SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF DOWNPOURS AND STORM
TODAY MAY VARY. SPATIAL EXTENT OF FOG AND STRATUS IN
QUESTION TONIGHT.

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...IFR EXPECTED IN VALLEY FOG/MOUNTAIN CLOUDS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN WV. IFR POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS AND/OR LOW CEILINGS ALONG EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR WVZ015-016-
     024>027-033>037.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>008-
     013-014.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ083-086-
     087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-
     105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...30



000
FXUS61 KRLX 031919
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
319 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH AREA TONIGHT...THEN TO OUR EAST ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. DRIER AIR TRIES TO OOZE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY-MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BAGGY SFC LOW SLOWLY MOVING THRU KY THIS AFTN. CONVECTION HAS
FIRED AHEAD OF DECAYING MCV CROSSING SW VA. THIS BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION EXTENDS NW INTO SE OH AS OF 18Z. SOME GOOD DUMPERS OVER
KANAWHA VALLEY THE NEXT FEW HRS...WITH AREAS FURTHER N GETTING IN
ON THE ACTION LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE. ONCE THE LOW TRACKS ALONG OH
RIVER THIS EVE...EXPECT BULK OF THE ACTIVITY TO DEPART WITH
IT...LEAVING MUCH LESS COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA OVER THE AREA.
STILL...WITH THE UPR TROF YET TO CROSS AND THE SFC BOUNDARY
LINGERING...WAS HESITANT ON LETTING E EXTENT OF THE WATCH GO AT
00Z. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS...EXTENDED TO 12Z WHILE
LETTING W PORTION OF THE WATCH EXPIRE ON TIME. IT IS ENTIRELY
POSSIBLY EVEN THE E PART OF THE WATCH CAN BE LET GO BEFORE 12Z.

THINK LOW STRATUS WILL SETTLE IN OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY AREAS OF
DENSE FOG IN THIS MOIST LOW FLOW ENVIRONMENT. DRIER AIR WILL BE
ADVECTING INTO SE OH NEAR DAWN...BUT WILL BE STUBBORN TO MAKE MUCH
FURTHER SE PROGRESS UNTIL MIDDAY. AS SUCH...HELD THE LOW CLOUDS E
OF THE OH RIVER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...CLOSER TO THE OLD BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT MOVE SOUTH AND STALLS ALONG THE WV/KY BORDER BY 00Z
SUNDAY.  THE NAM/ECMWF/GFS/CMC MODELS BRING DRIER AIR AT ALL LEVELS
SUGGESTING CLEARING SKIES SPREADING FROM NORTHWEST TO CENTRAL WV
SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS ALSO SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ABOUT 5 KNOTS
FOR THE SAME TIME PERIOD. THEREFORE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
SATURDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR SOME LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING AROUND PKB
SOUTH AND EAST TO CRW AND CKB AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND FOG DEVELOPING
ALONG RIVER VALLEYS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS SUNDAY MORNING. KEPT
CLOUDS AND LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CAN GET TRAPPED OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES AND EXTREME
SOUTHERN SECTIONS WHERE WILL BE CLOSER TO AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH
OF THE AREA. ANY PCPN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY
WHILE A SHORT WAVE AT H500 MOVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WAVE
WILL BRING CHANCE POPS BACK NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN WV AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES FOR PCPN FURTHER NORTH THROUGH
MONDAY MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WENT WITH A BLEND OF NAM AND SREF FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GENERALLY...HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S LOWLANDS RANGING
INTO THE MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL WILL BE IN THE MID
TO LOW 60S...EXCEPT INT HE UPPER 50S OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH WEAK MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASSING BY...A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WILL CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING MAINLY
EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...CROSSING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CODED HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE FOR NOW. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WENT WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTN WITH
MVFR CIGS/VSBY AND LOCALIZED IFR. TOUGH TO FIGURE OUT WHICH
TERMINALS GET HIT WITH STRONGER CELLS...THUS HELD TEMPO IFR OUT
SAVE FOR FIRST HR IN HTS.

SFC LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK UP THE OH RIVER THIS EVENING...TAKING
BULK OF THE SHRA/TSRA WITH IT. SO...EXPECT COVERAGE OF PRECIP TO
SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE BY 06Z...IF NOT SOONER. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LEFT BEHIND WILL SLOWLY TRACK SE INTO THE MTNS BY 12Z. EXPECT IFR
OR WORSE STRATUS TO SETTLE IN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH MVFR FG
AS WELL. DRIER AIR WILL BE SLOW TO ADVECT IN UNTIL TOMORROW AFTN.
THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP AT MVFR CIGS FOR MOST TAF SITES UNTIL MIDDAY
OR LONGER. EXPECT IFR CIGS TO HOLD AT KBKW THE LONGEST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z
SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF DOWNPOURS AND STORM
TODAY MAY VARY. SPATIAL EXTENT OF FOG AND STRATUS IN
QUESTION TONIGHT.

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...IFR EXPECTED IN VALLEY FOG/MOUNTAIN CLOUDS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN WV. IFR POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS AND/OR LOW CEILINGS ALONG EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR WVZ015-016-
     024>027-033>037.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>008-
     013-014.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ083-086-
     087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-
     105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...30



000
FXUS61 KRLX 031919
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
319 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH AREA TONIGHT...THEN TO OUR EAST ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. DRIER AIR TRIES TO OOZE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY-MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BAGGY SFC LOW SLOWLY MOVING THRU KY THIS AFTN. CONVECTION HAS
FIRED AHEAD OF DECAYING MCV CROSSING SW VA. THIS BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION EXTENDS NW INTO SE OH AS OF 18Z. SOME GOOD DUMPERS OVER
KANAWHA VALLEY THE NEXT FEW HRS...WITH AREAS FURTHER N GETTING IN
ON THE ACTION LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE. ONCE THE LOW TRACKS ALONG OH
RIVER THIS EVE...EXPECT BULK OF THE ACTIVITY TO DEPART WITH
IT...LEAVING MUCH LESS COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA OVER THE AREA.
STILL...WITH THE UPR TROF YET TO CROSS AND THE SFC BOUNDARY
LINGERING...WAS HESITANT ON LETTING E EXTENT OF THE WATCH GO AT
00Z. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS...EXTENDED TO 12Z WHILE
LETTING W PORTION OF THE WATCH EXPIRE ON TIME. IT IS ENTIRELY
POSSIBLY EVEN THE E PART OF THE WATCH CAN BE LET GO BEFORE 12Z.

THINK LOW STRATUS WILL SETTLE IN OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY AREAS OF
DENSE FOG IN THIS MOIST LOW FLOW ENVIRONMENT. DRIER AIR WILL BE
ADVECTING INTO SE OH NEAR DAWN...BUT WILL BE STUBBORN TO MAKE MUCH
FURTHER SE PROGRESS UNTIL MIDDAY. AS SUCH...HELD THE LOW CLOUDS E
OF THE OH RIVER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...CLOSER TO THE OLD BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT MOVE SOUTH AND STALLS ALONG THE WV/KY BORDER BY 00Z
SUNDAY.  THE NAM/ECMWF/GFS/CMC MODELS BRING DRIER AIR AT ALL LEVELS
SUGGESTING CLEARING SKIES SPREADING FROM NORTHWEST TO CENTRAL WV
SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS ALSO SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ABOUT 5 KNOTS
FOR THE SAME TIME PERIOD. THEREFORE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
SATURDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR SOME LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING AROUND PKB
SOUTH AND EAST TO CRW AND CKB AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND FOG DEVELOPING
ALONG RIVER VALLEYS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS SUNDAY MORNING. KEPT
CLOUDS AND LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CAN GET TRAPPED OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES AND EXTREME
SOUTHERN SECTIONS WHERE WILL BE CLOSER TO AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH
OF THE AREA. ANY PCPN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY
WHILE A SHORT WAVE AT H500 MOVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WAVE
WILL BRING CHANCE POPS BACK NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN WV AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES FOR PCPN FURTHER NORTH THROUGH
MONDAY MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WENT WITH A BLEND OF NAM AND SREF FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GENERALLY...HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S LOWLANDS RANGING
INTO THE MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL WILL BE IN THE MID
TO LOW 60S...EXCEPT INT HE UPPER 50S OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH WEAK MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASSING BY...A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WILL CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING MAINLY
EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...CROSSING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CODED HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE FOR NOW. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WENT WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTN WITH
MVFR CIGS/VSBY AND LOCALIZED IFR. TOUGH TO FIGURE OUT WHICH
TERMINALS GET HIT WITH STRONGER CELLS...THUS HELD TEMPO IFR OUT
SAVE FOR FIRST HR IN HTS.

SFC LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK UP THE OH RIVER THIS EVENING...TAKING
BULK OF THE SHRA/TSRA WITH IT. SO...EXPECT COVERAGE OF PRECIP TO
SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE BY 06Z...IF NOT SOONER. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LEFT BEHIND WILL SLOWLY TRACK SE INTO THE MTNS BY 12Z. EXPECT IFR
OR WORSE STRATUS TO SETTLE IN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH MVFR FG
AS WELL. DRIER AIR WILL BE SLOW TO ADVECT IN UNTIL TOMORROW AFTN.
THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP AT MVFR CIGS FOR MOST TAF SITES UNTIL MIDDAY
OR LONGER. EXPECT IFR CIGS TO HOLD AT KBKW THE LONGEST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z
SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF DOWNPOURS AND STORM
TODAY MAY VARY. SPATIAL EXTENT OF FOG AND STRATUS IN
QUESTION TONIGHT.

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...IFR EXPECTED IN VALLEY FOG/MOUNTAIN CLOUDS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN WV. IFR POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS AND/OR LOW CEILINGS ALONG EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR WVZ015-016-
     024>027-033>037.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>008-
     013-014.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ083-086-
     087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-
     105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...30



000
FXUS61 KRLX 031919
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
319 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH AREA TONIGHT...THEN TO OUR EAST ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. DRIER AIR TRIES TO OOZE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY-MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BAGGY SFC LOW SLOWLY MOVING THRU KY THIS AFTN. CONVECTION HAS
FIRED AHEAD OF DECAYING MCV CROSSING SW VA. THIS BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION EXTENDS NW INTO SE OH AS OF 18Z. SOME GOOD DUMPERS OVER
KANAWHA VALLEY THE NEXT FEW HRS...WITH AREAS FURTHER N GETTING IN
ON THE ACTION LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE. ONCE THE LOW TRACKS ALONG OH
RIVER THIS EVE...EXPECT BULK OF THE ACTIVITY TO DEPART WITH
IT...LEAVING MUCH LESS COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA OVER THE AREA.
STILL...WITH THE UPR TROF YET TO CROSS AND THE SFC BOUNDARY
LINGERING...WAS HESITANT ON LETTING E EXTENT OF THE WATCH GO AT
00Z. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS...EXTENDED TO 12Z WHILE
LETTING W PORTION OF THE WATCH EXPIRE ON TIME. IT IS ENTIRELY
POSSIBLY EVEN THE E PART OF THE WATCH CAN BE LET GO BEFORE 12Z.

THINK LOW STRATUS WILL SETTLE IN OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY AREAS OF
DENSE FOG IN THIS MOIST LOW FLOW ENVIRONMENT. DRIER AIR WILL BE
ADVECTING INTO SE OH NEAR DAWN...BUT WILL BE STUBBORN TO MAKE MUCH
FURTHER SE PROGRESS UNTIL MIDDAY. AS SUCH...HELD THE LOW CLOUDS E
OF THE OH RIVER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...CLOSER TO THE OLD BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT MOVE SOUTH AND STALLS ALONG THE WV/KY BORDER BY 00Z
SUNDAY.  THE NAM/ECMWF/GFS/CMC MODELS BRING DRIER AIR AT ALL LEVELS
SUGGESTING CLEARING SKIES SPREADING FROM NORTHWEST TO CENTRAL WV
SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS ALSO SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ABOUT 5 KNOTS
FOR THE SAME TIME PERIOD. THEREFORE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
SATURDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR SOME LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING AROUND PKB
SOUTH AND EAST TO CRW AND CKB AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND FOG DEVELOPING
ALONG RIVER VALLEYS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS SUNDAY MORNING. KEPT
CLOUDS AND LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CAN GET TRAPPED OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES AND EXTREME
SOUTHERN SECTIONS WHERE WILL BE CLOSER TO AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH
OF THE AREA. ANY PCPN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY
WHILE A SHORT WAVE AT H500 MOVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WAVE
WILL BRING CHANCE POPS BACK NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN WV AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES FOR PCPN FURTHER NORTH THROUGH
MONDAY MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WENT WITH A BLEND OF NAM AND SREF FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GENERALLY...HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S LOWLANDS RANGING
INTO THE MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL WILL BE IN THE MID
TO LOW 60S...EXCEPT INT HE UPPER 50S OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH WEAK MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASSING BY...A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WILL CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING MAINLY
EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...CROSSING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CODED HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE FOR NOW. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WENT WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTN WITH
MVFR CIGS/VSBY AND LOCALIZED IFR. TOUGH TO FIGURE OUT WHICH
TERMINALS GET HIT WITH STRONGER CELLS...THUS HELD TEMPO IFR OUT
SAVE FOR FIRST HR IN HTS.

SFC LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK UP THE OH RIVER THIS EVENING...TAKING
BULK OF THE SHRA/TSRA WITH IT. SO...EXPECT COVERAGE OF PRECIP TO
SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE BY 06Z...IF NOT SOONER. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LEFT BEHIND WILL SLOWLY TRACK SE INTO THE MTNS BY 12Z. EXPECT IFR
OR WORSE STRATUS TO SETTLE IN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH MVFR FG
AS WELL. DRIER AIR WILL BE SLOW TO ADVECT IN UNTIL TOMORROW AFTN.
THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP AT MVFR CIGS FOR MOST TAF SITES UNTIL MIDDAY
OR LONGER. EXPECT IFR CIGS TO HOLD AT KBKW THE LONGEST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z
SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF DOWNPOURS AND STORM
TODAY MAY VARY. SPATIAL EXTENT OF FOG AND STRATUS IN
QUESTION TONIGHT.

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...IFR EXPECTED IN VALLEY FOG/MOUNTAIN CLOUDS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN WV. IFR POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS AND/OR LOW CEILINGS ALONG EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR WVZ015-016-
     024>027-033>037.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>008-
     013-014.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ083-086-
     087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-
     105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...30




000
FXUS61 KRLX 031841
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
241 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH AREA TONIGHT...THEN TO OUR EAST ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. DRIER AIR TRIES TO OOZE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY-MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BAGGY SFC LOW SLOWLY MOVING THRU KY THIS AFTN. CONVECTION HAS
FIRED AHEAD OF DECAYING MCV CROSSING SW VA. THIS BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION EXTENDS NW INTO SE OH AS OF 18Z. SOME GOOD DUMPERS OVER
KANAWHA VALLEY THE NEXT FEW HRS...WITH AREAS FURTHER N GETTING IN
ON THE ACTION LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE. ONCE THE LOW TRACKS ALONG OH
RIVER THIS EVE...EXPECT BULK OF THE ACTIVITY TO DEPART WITH
IT...LEAVING MUCH LESS COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA OVER THE AREA.
STILL...WITH THE UPR TROF YET TO CROSS AND THE SFC BOUNDARY
LINGERING...WAS HESITANT ON LETTING E EXTENT OF THE WATCH GO AT
00Z. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS...EXTENDED TO 12Z WHILE
LETTING W PORTION OF THE WATCH EXPIRE ON TIME. IT IS ENTIRELY
POSSIBLY EVEN THE E PART OF THE WATCH CAN BE LET GO BEFORE 12Z.

THINK LOW STRATUS WILL SETTLE IN OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY AREAS OF
DENSE FOG IN THIS MOIST LOW FLOW ENVIRONMENT. DRIER AIR WILL BE
ADVECTING INTO SE OH NEAR DAWN...BUT WILL BE STUBBORN TO MAKE MUCH
FURTHER SE PROGRESS UNTIL MIDDAY. AS SUCH...HELD THE LOW CLOUDS E
OF THE OH RIVER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...CLOSER TO THE OLD BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A BIT LEERY/SKEPTICAL OF THE 00Z NAM PUSHING THE DRIER AIR
QUICKLY SE ON SATURDAY AND EVEN KEEPING OUR EASTERN SLOPES DRY
SUNDAY. WILL TREND TOWARD A SLOWER DRYING TREND IN OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES INDEPENDENCE DAY AFTERNOON...AS LOW CLOUDS TRY TO BREAK
UP. YET...WAS STILL FASTER IN REMOVING POPS SATURDAY IN OUR MID
OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES...INCLUDING ATHENS...MARIETTA...AND
PARKERSBURG...THEN OUR PREVIOUS THINKING. ANY CHANCES OF THUNDER
SATURDAY SHOULD RESTRICTED TO MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ON EAST.

WITH DRIER AIR INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO...TRIED TO LOWER MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. IN THE GRADIENT
OR TRANSITION ZONE...INCLUDED FOG FORMING CKB-EKN TO CRW VCNTY
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

A WEAK STEERING FLOW ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A WEAK 500 MB LOW
POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.  A WEAK EAST AND SOUTHEAST
WIND FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS...SO WILL HOLD ONTO POPS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT IN OUR MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ESPECIALLY SNOWSHOE...BECKLEY
ON SW TOWARD GRUNDY.

AT LEAST THE PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD BE LOWERING DURING THE SHORT
TERM...COMPARED TO THE CURRENT NEAR TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH WEAK MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASSING BY...A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WILL CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING MAINLY
EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...CROSSING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CODED HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE FOR NOW. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WENT WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTN WITH
MVFR CIGS/VSBY AND LOCALIZED IFR. TOUGH TO FIGURE OUT WHICH
TERMINALS GET HIT WITH STRONGER CELLS...THUS HELD TEMPO IFR OUT
SAVE FOR FIRST HR IN HTS.

SFC LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK UP THE OH RIVER THIS EVENING...TAKING
BULK OF THE SHRA/TSRA WITH IT. SO...EXPECT COVERAGE OF PRECIP TO
SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE BY 06Z...IF NOT SOONER. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LEFT BEHIND WILL SLOWLY TRACK SE INTO THE MTNS BY 12Z. EXPECT IFR
OR WORSE STRATUS TO SETTLE IN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH MVFR FG
AS WELL. DRIER AIR WILL BE SLOW TO ADVECT IN UNTIL TOMORROW AFTN.
THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP AT MVFR CIGS FOR MOST TAF SITES UNTIL MIDDAY
OR LONGER. EXPECT IFR CIGS TO HOLD AT KBKW THE LONGEST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z
SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF DOWNPOURS AND STORM
TODAY MAY VARY. SPATIAL EXTENT OF FOG AND STRATUS IN
QUESTION TONIGHT.

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...IFR EXPECTED IN VALLEY FOG/MOUNTAIN CLOUDS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN WV. IFR POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS AND/OR LOW CEILINGS ALONG EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR WVZ015-016-
     024>027-033>037.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>008-
     013-014.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ083-086-
     087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-
     105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...30



000
FXUS61 KRLX 031841
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
241 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH AREA TONIGHT...THEN TO OUR EAST ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. DRIER AIR TRIES TO OOZE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY-MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BAGGY SFC LOW SLOWLY MOVING THRU KY THIS AFTN. CONVECTION HAS
FIRED AHEAD OF DECAYING MCV CROSSING SW VA. THIS BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION EXTENDS NW INTO SE OH AS OF 18Z. SOME GOOD DUMPERS OVER
KANAWHA VALLEY THE NEXT FEW HRS...WITH AREAS FURTHER N GETTING IN
ON THE ACTION LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE. ONCE THE LOW TRACKS ALONG OH
RIVER THIS EVE...EXPECT BULK OF THE ACTIVITY TO DEPART WITH
IT...LEAVING MUCH LESS COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA OVER THE AREA.
STILL...WITH THE UPR TROF YET TO CROSS AND THE SFC BOUNDARY
LINGERING...WAS HESITANT ON LETTING E EXTENT OF THE WATCH GO AT
00Z. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS...EXTENDED TO 12Z WHILE
LETTING W PORTION OF THE WATCH EXPIRE ON TIME. IT IS ENTIRELY
POSSIBLY EVEN THE E PART OF THE WATCH CAN BE LET GO BEFORE 12Z.

THINK LOW STRATUS WILL SETTLE IN OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY AREAS OF
DENSE FOG IN THIS MOIST LOW FLOW ENVIRONMENT. DRIER AIR WILL BE
ADVECTING INTO SE OH NEAR DAWN...BUT WILL BE STUBBORN TO MAKE MUCH
FURTHER SE PROGRESS UNTIL MIDDAY. AS SUCH...HELD THE LOW CLOUDS E
OF THE OH RIVER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...CLOSER TO THE OLD BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A BIT LEERY/SKEPTICAL OF THE 00Z NAM PUSHING THE DRIER AIR
QUICKLY SE ON SATURDAY AND EVEN KEEPING OUR EASTERN SLOPES DRY
SUNDAY. WILL TREND TOWARD A SLOWER DRYING TREND IN OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES INDEPENDENCE DAY AFTERNOON...AS LOW CLOUDS TRY TO BREAK
UP. YET...WAS STILL FASTER IN REMOVING POPS SATURDAY IN OUR MID
OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES...INCLUDING ATHENS...MARIETTA...AND
PARKERSBURG...THEN OUR PREVIOUS THINKING. ANY CHANCES OF THUNDER
SATURDAY SHOULD RESTRICTED TO MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ON EAST.

WITH DRIER AIR INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO...TRIED TO LOWER MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. IN THE GRADIENT
OR TRANSITION ZONE...INCLUDED FOG FORMING CKB-EKN TO CRW VCNTY
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

A WEAK STEERING FLOW ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A WEAK 500 MB LOW
POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.  A WEAK EAST AND SOUTHEAST
WIND FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS...SO WILL HOLD ONTO POPS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT IN OUR MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ESPECIALLY SNOWSHOE...BECKLEY
ON SW TOWARD GRUNDY.

AT LEAST THE PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD BE LOWERING DURING THE SHORT
TERM...COMPARED TO THE CURRENT NEAR TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH WEAK MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASSING BY...A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WILL CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING MAINLY
EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...CROSSING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CODED HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE FOR NOW. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WENT WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTN WITH
MVFR CIGS/VSBY AND LOCALIZED IFR. TOUGH TO FIGURE OUT WHICH
TERMINALS GET HIT WITH STRONGER CELLS...THUS HELD TEMPO IFR OUT
SAVE FOR FIRST HR IN HTS.

SFC LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK UP THE OH RIVER THIS EVENING...TAKING
BULK OF THE SHRA/TSRA WITH IT. SO...EXPECT COVERAGE OF PRECIP TO
SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE BY 06Z...IF NOT SOONER. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LEFT BEHIND WILL SLOWLY TRACK SE INTO THE MTNS BY 12Z. EXPECT IFR
OR WORSE STRATUS TO SETTLE IN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH MVFR FG
AS WELL. DRIER AIR WILL BE SLOW TO ADVECT IN UNTIL TOMORROW AFTN.
THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP AT MVFR CIGS FOR MOST TAF SITES UNTIL MIDDAY
OR LONGER. EXPECT IFR CIGS TO HOLD AT KBKW THE LONGEST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z
SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF DOWNPOURS AND STORM
TODAY MAY VARY. SPATIAL EXTENT OF FOG AND STRATUS IN
QUESTION TONIGHT.

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...IFR EXPECTED IN VALLEY FOG/MOUNTAIN CLOUDS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN WV. IFR POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS AND/OR LOW CEILINGS ALONG EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR WVZ015-016-
     024>027-033>037.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>008-
     013-014.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ083-086-
     087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-
     105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...30



000
FXUS61 KRLX 031841
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
241 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH AREA TONIGHT...THEN TO OUR EAST ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. DRIER AIR TRIES TO OOZE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY-MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BAGGY SFC LOW SLOWLY MOVING THRU KY THIS AFTN. CONVECTION HAS
FIRED AHEAD OF DECAYING MCV CROSSING SW VA. THIS BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION EXTENDS NW INTO SE OH AS OF 18Z. SOME GOOD DUMPERS OVER
KANAWHA VALLEY THE NEXT FEW HRS...WITH AREAS FURTHER N GETTING IN
ON THE ACTION LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE. ONCE THE LOW TRACKS ALONG OH
RIVER THIS EVE...EXPECT BULK OF THE ACTIVITY TO DEPART WITH
IT...LEAVING MUCH LESS COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA OVER THE AREA.
STILL...WITH THE UPR TROF YET TO CROSS AND THE SFC BOUNDARY
LINGERING...WAS HESITANT ON LETTING E EXTENT OF THE WATCH GO AT
00Z. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS...EXTENDED TO 12Z WHILE
LETTING W PORTION OF THE WATCH EXPIRE ON TIME. IT IS ENTIRELY
POSSIBLY EVEN THE E PART OF THE WATCH CAN BE LET GO BEFORE 12Z.

THINK LOW STRATUS WILL SETTLE IN OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY AREAS OF
DENSE FOG IN THIS MOIST LOW FLOW ENVIRONMENT. DRIER AIR WILL BE
ADVECTING INTO SE OH NEAR DAWN...BUT WILL BE STUBBORN TO MAKE MUCH
FURTHER SE PROGRESS UNTIL MIDDAY. AS SUCH...HELD THE LOW CLOUDS E
OF THE OH RIVER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...CLOSER TO THE OLD BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A BIT LEERY/SKEPTICAL OF THE 00Z NAM PUSHING THE DRIER AIR
QUICKLY SE ON SATURDAY AND EVEN KEEPING OUR EASTERN SLOPES DRY
SUNDAY. WILL TREND TOWARD A SLOWER DRYING TREND IN OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES INDEPENDENCE DAY AFTERNOON...AS LOW CLOUDS TRY TO BREAK
UP. YET...WAS STILL FASTER IN REMOVING POPS SATURDAY IN OUR MID
OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES...INCLUDING ATHENS...MARIETTA...AND
PARKERSBURG...THEN OUR PREVIOUS THINKING. ANY CHANCES OF THUNDER
SATURDAY SHOULD RESTRICTED TO MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ON EAST.

WITH DRIER AIR INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO...TRIED TO LOWER MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. IN THE GRADIENT
OR TRANSITION ZONE...INCLUDED FOG FORMING CKB-EKN TO CRW VCNTY
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

A WEAK STEERING FLOW ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A WEAK 500 MB LOW
POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.  A WEAK EAST AND SOUTHEAST
WIND FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS...SO WILL HOLD ONTO POPS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT IN OUR MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ESPECIALLY SNOWSHOE...BECKLEY
ON SW TOWARD GRUNDY.

AT LEAST THE PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD BE LOWERING DURING THE SHORT
TERM...COMPARED TO THE CURRENT NEAR TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH WEAK MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASSING BY...A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WILL CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING MAINLY
EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...CROSSING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CODED HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE FOR NOW. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WENT WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTN WITH
MVFR CIGS/VSBY AND LOCALIZED IFR. TOUGH TO FIGURE OUT WHICH
TERMINALS GET HIT WITH STRONGER CELLS...THUS HELD TEMPO IFR OUT
SAVE FOR FIRST HR IN HTS.

SFC LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK UP THE OH RIVER THIS EVENING...TAKING
BULK OF THE SHRA/TSRA WITH IT. SO...EXPECT COVERAGE OF PRECIP TO
SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE BY 06Z...IF NOT SOONER. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LEFT BEHIND WILL SLOWLY TRACK SE INTO THE MTNS BY 12Z. EXPECT IFR
OR WORSE STRATUS TO SETTLE IN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH MVFR FG
AS WELL. DRIER AIR WILL BE SLOW TO ADVECT IN UNTIL TOMORROW AFTN.
THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP AT MVFR CIGS FOR MOST TAF SITES UNTIL MIDDAY
OR LONGER. EXPECT IFR CIGS TO HOLD AT KBKW THE LONGEST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z
SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF DOWNPOURS AND STORM
TODAY MAY VARY. SPATIAL EXTENT OF FOG AND STRATUS IN
QUESTION TONIGHT.

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...IFR EXPECTED IN VALLEY FOG/MOUNTAIN CLOUDS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN WV. IFR POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS AND/OR LOW CEILINGS ALONG EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR WVZ015-016-
     024>027-033>037.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>008-
     013-014.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ083-086-
     087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-
     105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...30



000
FXUS61 KRLX 031841
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
241 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH AREA TONIGHT...THEN TO OUR EAST ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. DRIER AIR TRIES TO OOZE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY-MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BAGGY SFC LOW SLOWLY MOVING THRU KY THIS AFTN. CONVECTION HAS
FIRED AHEAD OF DECAYING MCV CROSSING SW VA. THIS BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION EXTENDS NW INTO SE OH AS OF 18Z. SOME GOOD DUMPERS OVER
KANAWHA VALLEY THE NEXT FEW HRS...WITH AREAS FURTHER N GETTING IN
ON THE ACTION LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE. ONCE THE LOW TRACKS ALONG OH
RIVER THIS EVE...EXPECT BULK OF THE ACTIVITY TO DEPART WITH
IT...LEAVING MUCH LESS COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA OVER THE AREA.
STILL...WITH THE UPR TROF YET TO CROSS AND THE SFC BOUNDARY
LINGERING...WAS HESITANT ON LETTING E EXTENT OF THE WATCH GO AT
00Z. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS...EXTENDED TO 12Z WHILE
LETTING W PORTION OF THE WATCH EXPIRE ON TIME. IT IS ENTIRELY
POSSIBLY EVEN THE E PART OF THE WATCH CAN BE LET GO BEFORE 12Z.

THINK LOW STRATUS WILL SETTLE IN OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY AREAS OF
DENSE FOG IN THIS MOIST LOW FLOW ENVIRONMENT. DRIER AIR WILL BE
ADVECTING INTO SE OH NEAR DAWN...BUT WILL BE STUBBORN TO MAKE MUCH
FURTHER SE PROGRESS UNTIL MIDDAY. AS SUCH...HELD THE LOW CLOUDS E
OF THE OH RIVER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...CLOSER TO THE OLD BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A BIT LEERY/SKEPTICAL OF THE 00Z NAM PUSHING THE DRIER AIR
QUICKLY SE ON SATURDAY AND EVEN KEEPING OUR EASTERN SLOPES DRY
SUNDAY. WILL TREND TOWARD A SLOWER DRYING TREND IN OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES INDEPENDENCE DAY AFTERNOON...AS LOW CLOUDS TRY TO BREAK
UP. YET...WAS STILL FASTER IN REMOVING POPS SATURDAY IN OUR MID
OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES...INCLUDING ATHENS...MARIETTA...AND
PARKERSBURG...THEN OUR PREVIOUS THINKING. ANY CHANCES OF THUNDER
SATURDAY SHOULD RESTRICTED TO MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ON EAST.

WITH DRIER AIR INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO...TRIED TO LOWER MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. IN THE GRADIENT
OR TRANSITION ZONE...INCLUDED FOG FORMING CKB-EKN TO CRW VCNTY
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

A WEAK STEERING FLOW ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A WEAK 500 MB LOW
POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.  A WEAK EAST AND SOUTHEAST
WIND FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS...SO WILL HOLD ONTO POPS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT IN OUR MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ESPECIALLY SNOWSHOE...BECKLEY
ON SW TOWARD GRUNDY.

AT LEAST THE PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD BE LOWERING DURING THE SHORT
TERM...COMPARED TO THE CURRENT NEAR TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH WEAK MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASSING BY...A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WILL CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING MAINLY
EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...CROSSING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CODED HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE FOR NOW. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WENT WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTN WITH
MVFR CIGS/VSBY AND LOCALIZED IFR. TOUGH TO FIGURE OUT WHICH
TERMINALS GET HIT WITH STRONGER CELLS...THUS HELD TEMPO IFR OUT
SAVE FOR FIRST HR IN HTS.

SFC LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK UP THE OH RIVER THIS EVENING...TAKING
BULK OF THE SHRA/TSRA WITH IT. SO...EXPECT COVERAGE OF PRECIP TO
SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE BY 06Z...IF NOT SOONER. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LEFT BEHIND WILL SLOWLY TRACK SE INTO THE MTNS BY 12Z. EXPECT IFR
OR WORSE STRATUS TO SETTLE IN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH MVFR FG
AS WELL. DRIER AIR WILL BE SLOW TO ADVECT IN UNTIL TOMORROW AFTN.
THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP AT MVFR CIGS FOR MOST TAF SITES UNTIL MIDDAY
OR LONGER. EXPECT IFR CIGS TO HOLD AT KBKW THE LONGEST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z
SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF DOWNPOURS AND STORM
TODAY MAY VARY. SPATIAL EXTENT OF FOG AND STRATUS IN
QUESTION TONIGHT.

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...IFR EXPECTED IN VALLEY FOG/MOUNTAIN CLOUDS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN WV. IFR POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS AND/OR LOW CEILINGS ALONG EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR WVZ015-016-
     024>027-033>037.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>008-
     013-014.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ083-086-
     087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-
     105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...30



000
FXUS61 KRLX 031507
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1107 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH AREA TONIGHT...THEN TO OUR EAST ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. DRIER AIR TRIES TO OOZE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY-MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11 AM UPDATE...

BAGGY SFC LOW SLOWLY MOVING THRU KY AS OF 15Z. THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO HAVE NUDGED A HAIR N OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
HRS...NOW A BIT N OF I64 CORRIDOR. RLX VAD VERIFIES THIS WITH A
SSW LLVL FLOW. BAND OF SHRA ALONG THE FRONT HAVE ALL BUT
DISSIPATED AS THEY WORKED INTO THE N LOWLANDS AND SE OH...THUS
MUCH OF S HALF OF THE AREA IS CURRENTLY IN A LULL. EXPECT THIS
AREA TO FILL BACK IN THIS AFTN AS SHRA../PERHAPS A FEW BOOMERS AS
WELL/ DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW. PWATS WILL RISE TO NEAR 2
INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. SO...DESPITE THE BEST DEEP MOISTURE
ADVECTION REMAINING OVER TN VALLEY...THINK EFFICIENT DOWNPOURS
TILL A GOOD BET IN THIS LOW FLOW ENVIRONMENT. AS SUCH...THE WATCH
CONTINUES FOR S HALF OF THE AREA...WHICH IS THE WETTEST BY FAR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

SLOW MOVING SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY DRIFTING BACK INTO
THE CWA FROM THE SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN RESPONSE
TO A SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY...THAT WILL
STRENGTHEN SOME TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES
THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE CWA TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT FARTHER WEST AND NORTH WITH THE
PRECIPITATION INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT FAIRLY SLOW STORM MOVEMENT
WITH WEAK FLOW. DUE TO THIS...ADDED A TIER OF COUNTIES TO THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SE OHIO AND CENTRAL WV. DOWNPOURS ARE
JUST AS LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THE FLOOD WATCH IS NOT IN
PLACE...BUT THIS AREA HAS HAD SOME TIME TO DRY OUT SINCE THE LAST
SIGNIFICANT RAIN. WILL STILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
LOCALIZED ISSUES SHOULD A SLOW MOVING CELL OR REPETITIVE CELLS
CROSS A SPECIFIC AREA.

SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING A DRY SLOT OF SORTS MOVING INTO THE WV COAL
FIELDS TODAY. NOT SURE THE LOW WILL GET SPUN UP ENOUGH TO PULL IN
ENOUGH DRY AIR TO BE A TRUE DRY SLOT...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A BIT SPOTTIER COVERAGE OR LESS INTENSE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
HERE. DID TRY TO SHOW A BIT LOWER POPS AS WELL...ALTHOUGH STILL HAVE
LIKELY NUMBERS. AS THE LOW HEAD TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT...DRIER AIR
WILL SLOWLY TRY TO WORK IN FROM THE NW. WHILE PRECIP SHOULD
GRADUALLY COME TO AN END ACROSS THE WEST...THINK LOW STRATUS WILL
LIKELY STICK AROUND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD.

USED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES...WHICH DID NOT MAKE ANY HUGE
SWINGS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A BIT LEERY/SKEPTICAL OF THE 00Z NAM PUSHING THE DRIER AIR
QUICKLY SE ON SATURDAY AND EVEN KEEPING OUR EASTERN SLOPES DRY
SUNDAY. WILL TREND TOWARD A SLOWER DRYING TREND IN OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES INDEPENDENCE DAY AFTERNOON...AS LOW CLOUDS TRY TO BREAK
UP. YET...WAS STILL FASTER IN REMOVING POPS SATURDAY IN OUR MID
OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES...INCLUDING ATHENS...MARIETTA...AND
PARKERSBURG...THEN OUR PREVIOUS THINKING. ANY CHANCES OF THUNDER
SATURDAY SHOULD RESTRICTED TO MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ON EAST.

WITH DRIER AIR INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO...TRIED TO LOWER MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. IN THE GRADIENT
OR TRANSITION ZONE...INCLUDED FOG FORMING CKB-EKN TO CRW VCNTY
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

A WEAK STEERING FLOW ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A WEAK 500 MB LOW
POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.  A WEAK EAST AND SOUTHEAST
WIND FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS...SO WILL HOLD ONTO POPS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT IN OUR MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ESPECIALLY SNOWSHOE...BECKLEY
ON SW TOWARD GRUNDY.

AT LEAST THE PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD BE LOWERING DURING THE SHORT
TERM...COMPARED TO THE CURRENT NEAR TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH WEAK MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASSING BY...A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WILL CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING MAINLY
EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...CROSSING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CODED HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE FOR NOW. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WENT WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DENSE FOG DID NOT REALLY FORM AS INITIALLY THOUGHT...MAINLY DUE
TO SOME PUFFS OF WINDS AND THICKER CLOUDS. AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT MVFR TO LINGER MUCH
OF THE DAY IN RAIN...STORMS AND OR LOW STRATUS. AS RAIN ENDS THIS
EVENING...WILL LIKELY BE LEFT WITH LOW STRATUS MIXED WITH FOG
LINGERING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL BE NE TO E...WITH SW WINDS SOUTH OF
THE FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF DOWNPOURS AND STORM
TODAY MAY VARY. SPATIAL EXTENT OF FOG AND STRATUS IN
QUESTION TONIGHT.

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...IFR EXPECTED IN VALLEY FOG/MOUNTAIN CLOUDS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN WV. IFR POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS AND/OR LOW CEILINGS ALONG EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&


WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>008-013>016-
     024>027-033>037.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OHZ083-086-087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>008-
     013>016-024>027-033>037.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ083-086-
     087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-
     105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ/30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MZ



000
FXUS61 KRLX 031507
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1107 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH AREA TONIGHT...THEN TO OUR EAST ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. DRIER AIR TRIES TO OOZE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY-MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11 AM UPDATE...

BAGGY SFC LOW SLOWLY MOVING THRU KY AS OF 15Z. THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO HAVE NUDGED A HAIR N OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
HRS...NOW A BIT N OF I64 CORRIDOR. RLX VAD VERIFIES THIS WITH A
SSW LLVL FLOW. BAND OF SHRA ALONG THE FRONT HAVE ALL BUT
DISSIPATED AS THEY WORKED INTO THE N LOWLANDS AND SE OH...THUS
MUCH OF S HALF OF THE AREA IS CURRENTLY IN A LULL. EXPECT THIS
AREA TO FILL BACK IN THIS AFTN AS SHRA../PERHAPS A FEW BOOMERS AS
WELL/ DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW. PWATS WILL RISE TO NEAR 2
INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. SO...DESPITE THE BEST DEEP MOISTURE
ADVECTION REMAINING OVER TN VALLEY...THINK EFFICIENT DOWNPOURS
TILL A GOOD BET IN THIS LOW FLOW ENVIRONMENT. AS SUCH...THE WATCH
CONTINUES FOR S HALF OF THE AREA...WHICH IS THE WETTEST BY FAR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

SLOW MOVING SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY DRIFTING BACK INTO
THE CWA FROM THE SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN RESPONSE
TO A SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY...THAT WILL
STRENGTHEN SOME TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES
THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE CWA TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT FARTHER WEST AND NORTH WITH THE
PRECIPITATION INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT FAIRLY SLOW STORM MOVEMENT
WITH WEAK FLOW. DUE TO THIS...ADDED A TIER OF COUNTIES TO THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SE OHIO AND CENTRAL WV. DOWNPOURS ARE
JUST AS LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THE FLOOD WATCH IS NOT IN
PLACE...BUT THIS AREA HAS HAD SOME TIME TO DRY OUT SINCE THE LAST
SIGNIFICANT RAIN. WILL STILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
LOCALIZED ISSUES SHOULD A SLOW MOVING CELL OR REPETITIVE CELLS
CROSS A SPECIFIC AREA.

SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING A DRY SLOT OF SORTS MOVING INTO THE WV COAL
FIELDS TODAY. NOT SURE THE LOW WILL GET SPUN UP ENOUGH TO PULL IN
ENOUGH DRY AIR TO BE A TRUE DRY SLOT...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A BIT SPOTTIER COVERAGE OR LESS INTENSE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
HERE. DID TRY TO SHOW A BIT LOWER POPS AS WELL...ALTHOUGH STILL HAVE
LIKELY NUMBERS. AS THE LOW HEAD TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT...DRIER AIR
WILL SLOWLY TRY TO WORK IN FROM THE NW. WHILE PRECIP SHOULD
GRADUALLY COME TO AN END ACROSS THE WEST...THINK LOW STRATUS WILL
LIKELY STICK AROUND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD.

USED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES...WHICH DID NOT MAKE ANY HUGE
SWINGS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A BIT LEERY/SKEPTICAL OF THE 00Z NAM PUSHING THE DRIER AIR
QUICKLY SE ON SATURDAY AND EVEN KEEPING OUR EASTERN SLOPES DRY
SUNDAY. WILL TREND TOWARD A SLOWER DRYING TREND IN OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES INDEPENDENCE DAY AFTERNOON...AS LOW CLOUDS TRY TO BREAK
UP. YET...WAS STILL FASTER IN REMOVING POPS SATURDAY IN OUR MID
OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES...INCLUDING ATHENS...MARIETTA...AND
PARKERSBURG...THEN OUR PREVIOUS THINKING. ANY CHANCES OF THUNDER
SATURDAY SHOULD RESTRICTED TO MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ON EAST.

WITH DRIER AIR INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO...TRIED TO LOWER MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. IN THE GRADIENT
OR TRANSITION ZONE...INCLUDED FOG FORMING CKB-EKN TO CRW VCNTY
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

A WEAK STEERING FLOW ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A WEAK 500 MB LOW
POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.  A WEAK EAST AND SOUTHEAST
WIND FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS...SO WILL HOLD ONTO POPS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT IN OUR MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ESPECIALLY SNOWSHOE...BECKLEY
ON SW TOWARD GRUNDY.

AT LEAST THE PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD BE LOWERING DURING THE SHORT
TERM...COMPARED TO THE CURRENT NEAR TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH WEAK MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASSING BY...A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WILL CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING MAINLY
EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...CROSSING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CODED HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE FOR NOW. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WENT WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DENSE FOG DID NOT REALLY FORM AS INITIALLY THOUGHT...MAINLY DUE
TO SOME PUFFS OF WINDS AND THICKER CLOUDS. AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT MVFR TO LINGER MUCH
OF THE DAY IN RAIN...STORMS AND OR LOW STRATUS. AS RAIN ENDS THIS
EVENING...WILL LIKELY BE LEFT WITH LOW STRATUS MIXED WITH FOG
LINGERING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL BE NE TO E...WITH SW WINDS SOUTH OF
THE FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF DOWNPOURS AND STORM
TODAY MAY VARY. SPATIAL EXTENT OF FOG AND STRATUS IN
QUESTION TONIGHT.

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...IFR EXPECTED IN VALLEY FOG/MOUNTAIN CLOUDS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN WV. IFR POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS AND/OR LOW CEILINGS ALONG EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&


WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>008-013>016-
     024>027-033>037.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OHZ083-086-087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>008-
     013>016-024>027-033>037.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ083-086-
     087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-
     105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ/30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MZ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 031507
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1107 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH AREA TONIGHT...THEN TO OUR EAST ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. DRIER AIR TRIES TO OOZE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY-MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11 AM UPDATE...

BAGGY SFC LOW SLOWLY MOVING THRU KY AS OF 15Z. THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO HAVE NUDGED A HAIR N OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
HRS...NOW A BIT N OF I64 CORRIDOR. RLX VAD VERIFIES THIS WITH A
SSW LLVL FLOW. BAND OF SHRA ALONG THE FRONT HAVE ALL BUT
DISSIPATED AS THEY WORKED INTO THE N LOWLANDS AND SE OH...THUS
MUCH OF S HALF OF THE AREA IS CURRENTLY IN A LULL. EXPECT THIS
AREA TO FILL BACK IN THIS AFTN AS SHRA../PERHAPS A FEW BOOMERS AS
WELL/ DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW. PWATS WILL RISE TO NEAR 2
INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. SO...DESPITE THE BEST DEEP MOISTURE
ADVECTION REMAINING OVER TN VALLEY...THINK EFFICIENT DOWNPOURS
TILL A GOOD BET IN THIS LOW FLOW ENVIRONMENT. AS SUCH...THE WATCH
CONTINUES FOR S HALF OF THE AREA...WHICH IS THE WETTEST BY FAR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

SLOW MOVING SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY DRIFTING BACK INTO
THE CWA FROM THE SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN RESPONSE
TO A SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY...THAT WILL
STRENGTHEN SOME TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES
THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE CWA TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT FARTHER WEST AND NORTH WITH THE
PRECIPITATION INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT FAIRLY SLOW STORM MOVEMENT
WITH WEAK FLOW. DUE TO THIS...ADDED A TIER OF COUNTIES TO THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SE OHIO AND CENTRAL WV. DOWNPOURS ARE
JUST AS LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THE FLOOD WATCH IS NOT IN
PLACE...BUT THIS AREA HAS HAD SOME TIME TO DRY OUT SINCE THE LAST
SIGNIFICANT RAIN. WILL STILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
LOCALIZED ISSUES SHOULD A SLOW MOVING CELL OR REPETITIVE CELLS
CROSS A SPECIFIC AREA.

SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING A DRY SLOT OF SORTS MOVING INTO THE WV COAL
FIELDS TODAY. NOT SURE THE LOW WILL GET SPUN UP ENOUGH TO PULL IN
ENOUGH DRY AIR TO BE A TRUE DRY SLOT...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A BIT SPOTTIER COVERAGE OR LESS INTENSE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
HERE. DID TRY TO SHOW A BIT LOWER POPS AS WELL...ALTHOUGH STILL HAVE
LIKELY NUMBERS. AS THE LOW HEAD TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT...DRIER AIR
WILL SLOWLY TRY TO WORK IN FROM THE NW. WHILE PRECIP SHOULD
GRADUALLY COME TO AN END ACROSS THE WEST...THINK LOW STRATUS WILL
LIKELY STICK AROUND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD.

USED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES...WHICH DID NOT MAKE ANY HUGE
SWINGS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A BIT LEERY/SKEPTICAL OF THE 00Z NAM PUSHING THE DRIER AIR
QUICKLY SE ON SATURDAY AND EVEN KEEPING OUR EASTERN SLOPES DRY
SUNDAY. WILL TREND TOWARD A SLOWER DRYING TREND IN OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES INDEPENDENCE DAY AFTERNOON...AS LOW CLOUDS TRY TO BREAK
UP. YET...WAS STILL FASTER IN REMOVING POPS SATURDAY IN OUR MID
OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES...INCLUDING ATHENS...MARIETTA...AND
PARKERSBURG...THEN OUR PREVIOUS THINKING. ANY CHANCES OF THUNDER
SATURDAY SHOULD RESTRICTED TO MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ON EAST.

WITH DRIER AIR INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO...TRIED TO LOWER MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. IN THE GRADIENT
OR TRANSITION ZONE...INCLUDED FOG FORMING CKB-EKN TO CRW VCNTY
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

A WEAK STEERING FLOW ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A WEAK 500 MB LOW
POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.  A WEAK EAST AND SOUTHEAST
WIND FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS...SO WILL HOLD ONTO POPS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT IN OUR MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ESPECIALLY SNOWSHOE...BECKLEY
ON SW TOWARD GRUNDY.

AT LEAST THE PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD BE LOWERING DURING THE SHORT
TERM...COMPARED TO THE CURRENT NEAR TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH WEAK MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASSING BY...A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WILL CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING MAINLY
EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...CROSSING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CODED HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE FOR NOW. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WENT WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DENSE FOG DID NOT REALLY FORM AS INITIALLY THOUGHT...MAINLY DUE
TO SOME PUFFS OF WINDS AND THICKER CLOUDS. AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT MVFR TO LINGER MUCH
OF THE DAY IN RAIN...STORMS AND OR LOW STRATUS. AS RAIN ENDS THIS
EVENING...WILL LIKELY BE LEFT WITH LOW STRATUS MIXED WITH FOG
LINGERING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL BE NE TO E...WITH SW WINDS SOUTH OF
THE FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF DOWNPOURS AND STORM
TODAY MAY VARY. SPATIAL EXTENT OF FOG AND STRATUS IN
QUESTION TONIGHT.

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...IFR EXPECTED IN VALLEY FOG/MOUNTAIN CLOUDS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN WV. IFR POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS AND/OR LOW CEILINGS ALONG EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&


WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>008-013>016-
     024>027-033>037.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OHZ083-086-087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>008-
     013>016-024>027-033>037.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ083-086-
     087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-
     105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ/30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MZ



000
FXUS61 KRLX 031507
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1107 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH AREA TONIGHT...THEN TO OUR EAST ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. DRIER AIR TRIES TO OOZE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY-MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11 AM UPDATE...

BAGGY SFC LOW SLOWLY MOVING THRU KY AS OF 15Z. THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO HAVE NUDGED A HAIR N OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
HRS...NOW A BIT N OF I64 CORRIDOR. RLX VAD VERIFIES THIS WITH A
SSW LLVL FLOW. BAND OF SHRA ALONG THE FRONT HAVE ALL BUT
DISSIPATED AS THEY WORKED INTO THE N LOWLANDS AND SE OH...THUS
MUCH OF S HALF OF THE AREA IS CURRENTLY IN A LULL. EXPECT THIS
AREA TO FILL BACK IN THIS AFTN AS SHRA../PERHAPS A FEW BOOMERS AS
WELL/ DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW. PWATS WILL RISE TO NEAR 2
INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. SO...DESPITE THE BEST DEEP MOISTURE
ADVECTION REMAINING OVER TN VALLEY...THINK EFFICIENT DOWNPOURS
TILL A GOOD BET IN THIS LOW FLOW ENVIRONMENT. AS SUCH...THE WATCH
CONTINUES FOR S HALF OF THE AREA...WHICH IS THE WETTEST BY FAR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

SLOW MOVING SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY DRIFTING BACK INTO
THE CWA FROM THE SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN RESPONSE
TO A SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY...THAT WILL
STRENGTHEN SOME TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES
THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE CWA TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT FARTHER WEST AND NORTH WITH THE
PRECIPITATION INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT FAIRLY SLOW STORM MOVEMENT
WITH WEAK FLOW. DUE TO THIS...ADDED A TIER OF COUNTIES TO THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SE OHIO AND CENTRAL WV. DOWNPOURS ARE
JUST AS LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THE FLOOD WATCH IS NOT IN
PLACE...BUT THIS AREA HAS HAD SOME TIME TO DRY OUT SINCE THE LAST
SIGNIFICANT RAIN. WILL STILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
LOCALIZED ISSUES SHOULD A SLOW MOVING CELL OR REPETITIVE CELLS
CROSS A SPECIFIC AREA.

SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING A DRY SLOT OF SORTS MOVING INTO THE WV COAL
FIELDS TODAY. NOT SURE THE LOW WILL GET SPUN UP ENOUGH TO PULL IN
ENOUGH DRY AIR TO BE A TRUE DRY SLOT...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A BIT SPOTTIER COVERAGE OR LESS INTENSE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
HERE. DID TRY TO SHOW A BIT LOWER POPS AS WELL...ALTHOUGH STILL HAVE
LIKELY NUMBERS. AS THE LOW HEAD TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT...DRIER AIR
WILL SLOWLY TRY TO WORK IN FROM THE NW. WHILE PRECIP SHOULD
GRADUALLY COME TO AN END ACROSS THE WEST...THINK LOW STRATUS WILL
LIKELY STICK AROUND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD.

USED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES...WHICH DID NOT MAKE ANY HUGE
SWINGS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A BIT LEERY/SKEPTICAL OF THE 00Z NAM PUSHING THE DRIER AIR
QUICKLY SE ON SATURDAY AND EVEN KEEPING OUR EASTERN SLOPES DRY
SUNDAY. WILL TREND TOWARD A SLOWER DRYING TREND IN OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES INDEPENDENCE DAY AFTERNOON...AS LOW CLOUDS TRY TO BREAK
UP. YET...WAS STILL FASTER IN REMOVING POPS SATURDAY IN OUR MID
OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES...INCLUDING ATHENS...MARIETTA...AND
PARKERSBURG...THEN OUR PREVIOUS THINKING. ANY CHANCES OF THUNDER
SATURDAY SHOULD RESTRICTED TO MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ON EAST.

WITH DRIER AIR INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO...TRIED TO LOWER MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. IN THE GRADIENT
OR TRANSITION ZONE...INCLUDED FOG FORMING CKB-EKN TO CRW VCNTY
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

A WEAK STEERING FLOW ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A WEAK 500 MB LOW
POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.  A WEAK EAST AND SOUTHEAST
WIND FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS...SO WILL HOLD ONTO POPS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT IN OUR MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ESPECIALLY SNOWSHOE...BECKLEY
ON SW TOWARD GRUNDY.

AT LEAST THE PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD BE LOWERING DURING THE SHORT
TERM...COMPARED TO THE CURRENT NEAR TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH WEAK MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASSING BY...A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WILL CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING MAINLY
EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...CROSSING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CODED HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE FOR NOW. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WENT WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DENSE FOG DID NOT REALLY FORM AS INITIALLY THOUGHT...MAINLY DUE
TO SOME PUFFS OF WINDS AND THICKER CLOUDS. AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT MVFR TO LINGER MUCH
OF THE DAY IN RAIN...STORMS AND OR LOW STRATUS. AS RAIN ENDS THIS
EVENING...WILL LIKELY BE LEFT WITH LOW STRATUS MIXED WITH FOG
LINGERING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL BE NE TO E...WITH SW WINDS SOUTH OF
THE FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF DOWNPOURS AND STORM
TODAY MAY VARY. SPATIAL EXTENT OF FOG AND STRATUS IN
QUESTION TONIGHT.

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...IFR EXPECTED IN VALLEY FOG/MOUNTAIN CLOUDS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN WV. IFR POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS AND/OR LOW CEILINGS ALONG EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&


WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>008-013>016-
     024>027-033>037.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OHZ083-086-087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>008-
     013>016-024>027-033>037.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ083-086-
     087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-
     105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ/30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MZ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 031025
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
625 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH AREA TONIGHT...THEN TO OUR EAST ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. DRIER AIR TRIES TO OOZE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY-MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY DRIFTING BACK INTO THE CWA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW
OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY...THAT WILL STRENGTHEN SOME TODAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES REGIONS. THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE CWA TODAY
INTO TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A
BIT FARTHER WEST AND NORTH WITH THE PRECIPITATION INTO THIS
EVENING. EXPECT FAIRLY SLOW STORM MOVEMENT WITH WEAK FLOW. DUE TO
THIS...ADDED A TIER OF COUNTIES TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SE
OHIO AND CENTRAL WV. DOWNPOURS ARE JUST AS LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH
WHERE THE FLOOD WATCH IS NOT IN PLACE...BUT THIS AREA HAS HAD SOME
TIME TO DRY OUT SINCE THE LAST SIGNIFICANT RAIN. WILL STILL NEED
TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED ISSUES SHOULD A SLOW
MOVING CELL OR REPETITIVE CELLS CROSS A SPECIFIC AREA.

SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING A DRY SLOT OF SORTS MOVING INTO THE WV COAL
FIELDS TODAY. NOT SURE THE LOW WILL GET SPUN UP ENOUGH TO PULL IN
ENOUGH DRY AIR TO BE A TRUE DRY SLOT...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A BIT SPOTTIER COVERAGE OR LESS INTENSE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
HERE. DID TRY TO SHOW A BIT LOWER POPS AS WELL...ALTHOUGH STILL HAVE
LIKELY NUMBERS. AS THE LOW HEAD TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT...DRIER AIR
WILL SLOWLY TRY TO WORK IN FROM THE NW. WHILE PRECIP SHOULD
GRADUALLY COME TO AN END ACROSS THE WEST...THINK LOW STRATUS WILL
LIKELY STICK AROUND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD.

USED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES...WHICH DID NOT MAKE ANY HUGE
SWINGS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A BIT LEERY/SKEPTICAL OF THE 00Z NAM PUSHING THE DRIER AIR
QUICKLY SE ON SATURDAY AND EVEN KEEPING OUR EASTERN SLOPES DRY
SUNDAY. WILL TREND TOWARD A SLOWER DRYING TREND IN OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES INDEPENDENCE DAY AFTERNOON...AS LOW CLOUDS TRY TO BREAK
UP. YET...WAS STILL FASTER IN REMOVING POPS SATURDAY IN OUR MID
OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES...INCLUDING ATHENS...MARIETTA...AND
PARKERSBURG...THEN OUR PREVIOUS THINKING. ANY CHANCES OF THUNDER
SATURDAY SHOULD RESTRICTED TO MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ON EAST.

WITH DRIER AIR INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO...TRIED TO LOWER MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. IN THE GRADIENT
OR TRANSITION ZONE...INCLUDED FOG FORMING CKB-EKN TO CRW VCNTY
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

A WEAK STEERING FLOW ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A WEAK 500 MB LOW
POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.  A WEAK EAST AND SOUTHEAST
WIND FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS...SO WILL HOLD ONTO POPS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT IN OUR MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ESPECIALLY SNOWSHOE...BECKLEY
ON SW TOWARD GRUNDY.

AT LEAST THE PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD BE LOWERING DURING THE SHORT
TERM...COMPARED TO THE CURRENT NEAR TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH WEAK MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASSING BY...A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WILL CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING MAINLY
EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...CROSSING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CODED HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE FOR NOW. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WENT WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DENSE FOG DID NOT REALLY FORM AS INITIALLY THOUGHT...MAINLY DUE
TO SOME PUFFS OF WINDS AND THICKER CLOUDS. AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT MVFR TO LINGER MUCH
OF THE DAY IN RAIN...STORMS AND OR LOW STRATUS. AS RAIN ENDS THIS
EVENING...WILL LIKELY BE LEFT WITH LOW STRATUS MIXED WITH FOG
LINGERING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL BE NE TO E...WITH SW WINDS SOUTH OF
THE FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF DOWNPOURS AND STORM
TODAY MAY VARY. SPATIAL EXTENT OF FOG AND STRATUS IN
QUESTION TONIGHT.

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...IFR EXPECTED IN VALLEY FOG/MOUNTAIN CLOUDS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN WV. IFR POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS AND/OR LOW CEILINGS ALONG EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>008-013>016-
     024>027-033>037.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OHZ083-086-087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MZ



000
FXUS61 KRLX 031025
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
625 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH AREA TONIGHT...THEN TO OUR EAST ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. DRIER AIR TRIES TO OOZE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY-MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY DRIFTING BACK INTO THE CWA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW
OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY...THAT WILL STRENGTHEN SOME TODAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES REGIONS. THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE CWA TODAY
INTO TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A
BIT FARTHER WEST AND NORTH WITH THE PRECIPITATION INTO THIS
EVENING. EXPECT FAIRLY SLOW STORM MOVEMENT WITH WEAK FLOW. DUE TO
THIS...ADDED A TIER OF COUNTIES TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SE
OHIO AND CENTRAL WV. DOWNPOURS ARE JUST AS LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH
WHERE THE FLOOD WATCH IS NOT IN PLACE...BUT THIS AREA HAS HAD SOME
TIME TO DRY OUT SINCE THE LAST SIGNIFICANT RAIN. WILL STILL NEED
TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED ISSUES SHOULD A SLOW
MOVING CELL OR REPETITIVE CELLS CROSS A SPECIFIC AREA.

SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING A DRY SLOT OF SORTS MOVING INTO THE WV COAL
FIELDS TODAY. NOT SURE THE LOW WILL GET SPUN UP ENOUGH TO PULL IN
ENOUGH DRY AIR TO BE A TRUE DRY SLOT...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A BIT SPOTTIER COVERAGE OR LESS INTENSE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
HERE. DID TRY TO SHOW A BIT LOWER POPS AS WELL...ALTHOUGH STILL HAVE
LIKELY NUMBERS. AS THE LOW HEAD TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT...DRIER AIR
WILL SLOWLY TRY TO WORK IN FROM THE NW. WHILE PRECIP SHOULD
GRADUALLY COME TO AN END ACROSS THE WEST...THINK LOW STRATUS WILL
LIKELY STICK AROUND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD.

USED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES...WHICH DID NOT MAKE ANY HUGE
SWINGS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A BIT LEERY/SKEPTICAL OF THE 00Z NAM PUSHING THE DRIER AIR
QUICKLY SE ON SATURDAY AND EVEN KEEPING OUR EASTERN SLOPES DRY
SUNDAY. WILL TREND TOWARD A SLOWER DRYING TREND IN OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES INDEPENDENCE DAY AFTERNOON...AS LOW CLOUDS TRY TO BREAK
UP. YET...WAS STILL FASTER IN REMOVING POPS SATURDAY IN OUR MID
OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES...INCLUDING ATHENS...MARIETTA...AND
PARKERSBURG...THEN OUR PREVIOUS THINKING. ANY CHANCES OF THUNDER
SATURDAY SHOULD RESTRICTED TO MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ON EAST.

WITH DRIER AIR INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO...TRIED TO LOWER MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. IN THE GRADIENT
OR TRANSITION ZONE...INCLUDED FOG FORMING CKB-EKN TO CRW VCNTY
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

A WEAK STEERING FLOW ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A WEAK 500 MB LOW
POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.  A WEAK EAST AND SOUTHEAST
WIND FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS...SO WILL HOLD ONTO POPS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT IN OUR MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ESPECIALLY SNOWSHOE...BECKLEY
ON SW TOWARD GRUNDY.

AT LEAST THE PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD BE LOWERING DURING THE SHORT
TERM...COMPARED TO THE CURRENT NEAR TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH WEAK MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASSING BY...A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WILL CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING MAINLY
EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...CROSSING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CODED HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE FOR NOW. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WENT WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DENSE FOG DID NOT REALLY FORM AS INITIALLY THOUGHT...MAINLY DUE
TO SOME PUFFS OF WINDS AND THICKER CLOUDS. AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT MVFR TO LINGER MUCH
OF THE DAY IN RAIN...STORMS AND OR LOW STRATUS. AS RAIN ENDS THIS
EVENING...WILL LIKELY BE LEFT WITH LOW STRATUS MIXED WITH FOG
LINGERING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL BE NE TO E...WITH SW WINDS SOUTH OF
THE FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF DOWNPOURS AND STORM
TODAY MAY VARY. SPATIAL EXTENT OF FOG AND STRATUS IN
QUESTION TONIGHT.

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...IFR EXPECTED IN VALLEY FOG/MOUNTAIN CLOUDS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN WV. IFR POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS AND/OR LOW CEILINGS ALONG EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>008-013>016-
     024>027-033>037.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OHZ083-086-087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MZ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 030814
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
414 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH AREA TONIGHT...THEN TO OUR EAST ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. DRIER AIR TRIES TO OOZE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY-MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY DRIFTING BACK INTO THE CWA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW
OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY...THAT WILL STRENGTHEN SOME TODAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES REGIONS. THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE CWA TODAY
INTO TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A
BIT FARTHER WEST AND NORTH WITH THE PRECIPITATION INTO THIS EVENING.
DUE TO THIS...ADDED A TIER OF COUNTIES TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
ACROSS SE OHIO AND CENTRAL WV. DOWNPOURS ARE JUST AS LIKELY ACROSS
THE NORTH WHERE THE FLOOD WATCH IS NOT IN PLACE...BUT THIS AREA HAS
HAD SOME TIME TO DRY OUT SINCE THE LAST SIGNIFICANT RAIN. WILL STILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED ISSUES SHOULD A SLOW
MOVING CELL OR REPETITIVE CELLS CROSS A SPECIFIC AREA.

SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING A DRY SLOT OF SORTS MOVING INTO THE WV COAL
FIELDS TODAY. NOT SURE THE LOW WILL GET SPUN UP ENOUGH TO PULL IN
ENOUGH DRY AIR TO BE A TRUE DRY SLOT...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A BIT SPOTTIER COVERAGE OR LESS INTENSE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
HERE. DID TRY TO SHOW A BIT LOWER POPS AS WELL...ALTHOUGH STILL HAVE
LIKELY NUMBERS. AS THE LOW HEAD TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT...DRIER AIR
WILL SLOWLY TRY TO WORK IN FROM THE NW. WHILE PRECIP SHOULD
GRADUALLY COME TO AN END ACROSS THE WEST...THINK LOW STRATUS WILL
LIKELY STICK AROUND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD.

USED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES...WHICH DID NOT MAKE ANY HUGE
SWINGS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A BIT LEERY/SKEPTICAL OF THE 00Z NAM PUSHING THE DRIER AIR
QUICKLY SE ON SATURDAY AND EVEN KEEPING OUR EASTERN SLOPES DRY
SUNDAY. WILL TREND TOWARD A SLOWER DRYING TREND IN OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES INDEPENDENCE DAY AFTERNOON...AS LOW CLOUDS TRY TO BREAK
UP. YET...WAS STILL FASTER IN REMOVING POPS SATURDAY IN OUR MID
OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES...INCLUDING ATHENS...MARIETTA...AND
PARKERSBURG...THEN OUR PREVIOUS THINKING. ANY CHANCES OF THUNDER
SATURDAY SHOULD RESTRICTED TO MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ON EAST.

WITH DRIER AIR INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO...TRIED TO LOWER MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. IN THE GRADIENT
OR TRANSITION ZONE...INCLUDED FOG FORMING CKB-EKN TO CRW VCNTY
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

A WEAK STEERING FLOW ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A WEAK 500 MB LOW
POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.  A WEAK EAST AND SOUTHEAST
WIND FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS...SO WILL HOLD ONTO POPS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT IN OUR MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ESPECIALLY SNOWSHOE...BECKLEY
ON SW TOWARD GRUNDY.

AT LEAST THE PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD BE LOWERING DURING THE SHORT
TERM...COMPARED TO THE CURRENT NEAR TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH WEAK MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASSING BY...A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WILL CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING MAINLY
EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...CROSSING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CODED HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE FOR NOW. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WENT WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COMPLEX AVIATION FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CURRENTLY HAVE
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING IN VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS. EXPECT IFR AT
ALL TAF SITES AT TIMES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING IN FOG OR LOW
STRATUS OR BOTH IN SOME CASES. THE FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
SOME AFTER SUNRISE...BUT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...EXPECT MVFR TO LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY IN RAIN...STORMS
AND OR LOW STRATUS. SHOULD BE SIMILAR TONIGHT...WITH LOTS OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BRINGING FOG AND LOW STRATUS.

WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL BE NE TO E...WITH SW WINDS SOUTH OF
THE FRONT. IT SHOULD SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z
SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SPATIAL EXTENT OF FOG AND STRATUS IN
QUESTION TONIGHT. TIMING AND EXTENT OF DOWNPOURS TOMORROW MAY
VARY.

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>008-013>016-
     024>027-033>037.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OHZ083-086-087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MZ



000
FXUS61 KRLX 030814
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
414 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH AREA TONIGHT...THEN TO OUR EAST ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. DRIER AIR TRIES TO OOZE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY-MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY DRIFTING BACK INTO THE CWA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW
OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY...THAT WILL STRENGTHEN SOME TODAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES REGIONS. THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE CWA TODAY
INTO TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A
BIT FARTHER WEST AND NORTH WITH THE PRECIPITATION INTO THIS EVENING.
DUE TO THIS...ADDED A TIER OF COUNTIES TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
ACROSS SE OHIO AND CENTRAL WV. DOWNPOURS ARE JUST AS LIKELY ACROSS
THE NORTH WHERE THE FLOOD WATCH IS NOT IN PLACE...BUT THIS AREA HAS
HAD SOME TIME TO DRY OUT SINCE THE LAST SIGNIFICANT RAIN. WILL STILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED ISSUES SHOULD A SLOW
MOVING CELL OR REPETITIVE CELLS CROSS A SPECIFIC AREA.

SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING A DRY SLOT OF SORTS MOVING INTO THE WV COAL
FIELDS TODAY. NOT SURE THE LOW WILL GET SPUN UP ENOUGH TO PULL IN
ENOUGH DRY AIR TO BE A TRUE DRY SLOT...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A BIT SPOTTIER COVERAGE OR LESS INTENSE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
HERE. DID TRY TO SHOW A BIT LOWER POPS AS WELL...ALTHOUGH STILL HAVE
LIKELY NUMBERS. AS THE LOW HEAD TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT...DRIER AIR
WILL SLOWLY TRY TO WORK IN FROM THE NW. WHILE PRECIP SHOULD
GRADUALLY COME TO AN END ACROSS THE WEST...THINK LOW STRATUS WILL
LIKELY STICK AROUND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD.

USED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES...WHICH DID NOT MAKE ANY HUGE
SWINGS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A BIT LEERY/SKEPTICAL OF THE 00Z NAM PUSHING THE DRIER AIR
QUICKLY SE ON SATURDAY AND EVEN KEEPING OUR EASTERN SLOPES DRY
SUNDAY. WILL TREND TOWARD A SLOWER DRYING TREND IN OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES INDEPENDENCE DAY AFTERNOON...AS LOW CLOUDS TRY TO BREAK
UP. YET...WAS STILL FASTER IN REMOVING POPS SATURDAY IN OUR MID
OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES...INCLUDING ATHENS...MARIETTA...AND
PARKERSBURG...THEN OUR PREVIOUS THINKING. ANY CHANCES OF THUNDER
SATURDAY SHOULD RESTRICTED TO MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ON EAST.

WITH DRIER AIR INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO...TRIED TO LOWER MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. IN THE GRADIENT
OR TRANSITION ZONE...INCLUDED FOG FORMING CKB-EKN TO CRW VCNTY
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

A WEAK STEERING FLOW ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A WEAK 500 MB LOW
POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.  A WEAK EAST AND SOUTHEAST
WIND FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS...SO WILL HOLD ONTO POPS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT IN OUR MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ESPECIALLY SNOWSHOE...BECKLEY
ON SW TOWARD GRUNDY.

AT LEAST THE PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD BE LOWERING DURING THE SHORT
TERM...COMPARED TO THE CURRENT NEAR TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH WEAK MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASSING BY...A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WILL CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING MAINLY
EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...CROSSING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CODED HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE FOR NOW. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WENT WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COMPLEX AVIATION FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CURRENTLY HAVE
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING IN VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS. EXPECT IFR AT
ALL TAF SITES AT TIMES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING IN FOG OR LOW
STRATUS OR BOTH IN SOME CASES. THE FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
SOME AFTER SUNRISE...BUT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...EXPECT MVFR TO LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY IN RAIN...STORMS
AND OR LOW STRATUS. SHOULD BE SIMILAR TONIGHT...WITH LOTS OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BRINGING FOG AND LOW STRATUS.

WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL BE NE TO E...WITH SW WINDS SOUTH OF
THE FRONT. IT SHOULD SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z
SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SPATIAL EXTENT OF FOG AND STRATUS IN
QUESTION TONIGHT. TIMING AND EXTENT OF DOWNPOURS TOMORROW MAY
VARY.

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>008-013>016-
     024>027-033>037.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OHZ083-086-087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MZ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 030546
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
146 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAFFLES ACROSS
THE AREA...AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE THROUGH AT TIMES. THE
WEATHER MAY SETTLE DOWN A BIT ON THE 4TH AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
8 PM UPDATE...CONFINED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWEST THIRD
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH ON FRIDAY. TOOK
MOST OF THE THUNDER OUT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER CHALLENGING DAY HERE ON THE NEAR TERM DESK. ONE ROUND OF
DOWNPOURS MOVING THRU AREAS ALONG AND S OF I64 THIS AFTN. BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM OVER KY...THE SUN IS POKING THRU AND SOME BL HEATING
IS BEING REALIZED. EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG QUASI
STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER WHICH MAY
PROPAGATE INTO W ZONES LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVE. CONFIDENCE
ON THAT PANNING OUT IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH. DO THINK A GENERAL
LULL WILL BE REALIZED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE
DOWNPOURS REDEVELOP ON FRI AS A BAGGY SFC LOW MAKES A RUN INTO THE
AREA. DESPITE THE DEEPER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND DECENT
INSTABILITY REMAINING S OF THE CWA FRI...THINK THE SHRA/TSRA THAT
DO DEVELOP WITH THE LOW AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AS PWATS MAKE A RUN TO 2 INCHES. GIVEN
WHAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST 24 HRS AND WHAT IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW...WENT AHEAD AND HOISTED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS
ALONG AND S OF I64 CORRIDOR THRU 00 SAT. THIS MAY HAVE TO BE
EXTENDED IN TIME THRU TOMORROW NIGHT DEPENDING ON PROGRESSION OF
THE LOW PRESSURE AND S/W TROF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE LIKELY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...WITH CHANCES OVER THE
REMINDER WEST AND NORTH. NAM SUGGEST PWATS FROM 1.9 INCHES FRIDAY
NIGHT TO 1.7 INCHES SATURDAY. SOME H200 DIVERGENCE...MID LEVEL OMEGA
AND H850 TO H700 THETA-E AROUND 330K SUGGEST HEAVY OR PROLONGED
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE MENTIONING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND
POSSIBLE WATER ISSUES IN THE HWO.

COMFORTABLE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY AROUND 80 LOWLANDS TO
THE UPPER 60S HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A BIT WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN RESULT SUNDAY
PER LESS CLOUD COVER SPREADING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS A HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH.

USED A COMBINATION OF CONSENSUS MOS AND ALL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR THE 4TH OF JULY...PCPN WILL GRADUALLY EXIT TO THE EAST WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS SPREADING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. SO KEPT CHANCE POPS ROUGHLY FROM HTS TO PKB WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE AND DRIER ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH SPREADING SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY TO BRING DRIER
CONDITIONS AT LEAST OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH
WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING BY...A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WILL CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING MAINLY EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...CROSSING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CODED HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE FOR NOW. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WENT WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COMPLEX AVIATION FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CURRENTLY HAVE
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING IN VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS. EXPECT IFR AT
ALL TAF SITES AT TIMES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING IN FOG OR LOW
STRATUS OR BOTH IN SOME CASES. THE FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
SOME AFTER SUNRISE...BUT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...EXPECT MVFR TO LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY IN RAIN...STORMS
AND OR LOW STRATUS. SHOULD BE SIMILAR TONIGHT...WITH LOTS OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BRINGING FOG AND LOW STRATUS.

WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL BE NE TO E...WITH SW WINDS SOUTH OF
THE FRONT. IT SHOULD SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z
SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SPATIAL EXTENT OF FOG AND STRATUS IN
QUESTION TONIGHT. TIMING AND EXTENT OF DOWNPOURS TOMORROW MAY
VARY.

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005-006-013>015-
     024>027-033>037.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/30
NEAR TERM...JMV/30
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MZ



000
FXUS61 KRLX 030546
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
146 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAFFLES ACROSS
THE AREA...AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE THROUGH AT TIMES. THE
WEATHER MAY SETTLE DOWN A BIT ON THE 4TH AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
8 PM UPDATE...CONFINED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWEST THIRD
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH ON FRIDAY. TOOK
MOST OF THE THUNDER OUT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER CHALLENGING DAY HERE ON THE NEAR TERM DESK. ONE ROUND OF
DOWNPOURS MOVING THRU AREAS ALONG AND S OF I64 THIS AFTN. BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM OVER KY...THE SUN IS POKING THRU AND SOME BL HEATING
IS BEING REALIZED. EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG QUASI
STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER WHICH MAY
PROPAGATE INTO W ZONES LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVE. CONFIDENCE
ON THAT PANNING OUT IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH. DO THINK A GENERAL
LULL WILL BE REALIZED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE
DOWNPOURS REDEVELOP ON FRI AS A BAGGY SFC LOW MAKES A RUN INTO THE
AREA. DESPITE THE DEEPER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND DECENT
INSTABILITY REMAINING S OF THE CWA FRI...THINK THE SHRA/TSRA THAT
DO DEVELOP WITH THE LOW AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AS PWATS MAKE A RUN TO 2 INCHES. GIVEN
WHAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST 24 HRS AND WHAT IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW...WENT AHEAD AND HOISTED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS
ALONG AND S OF I64 CORRIDOR THRU 00 SAT. THIS MAY HAVE TO BE
EXTENDED IN TIME THRU TOMORROW NIGHT DEPENDING ON PROGRESSION OF
THE LOW PRESSURE AND S/W TROF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE LIKELY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...WITH CHANCES OVER THE
REMINDER WEST AND NORTH. NAM SUGGEST PWATS FROM 1.9 INCHES FRIDAY
NIGHT TO 1.7 INCHES SATURDAY. SOME H200 DIVERGENCE...MID LEVEL OMEGA
AND H850 TO H700 THETA-E AROUND 330K SUGGEST HEAVY OR PROLONGED
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE MENTIONING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND
POSSIBLE WATER ISSUES IN THE HWO.

COMFORTABLE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY AROUND 80 LOWLANDS TO
THE UPPER 60S HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A BIT WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN RESULT SUNDAY
PER LESS CLOUD COVER SPREADING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS A HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH.

USED A COMBINATION OF CONSENSUS MOS AND ALL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR THE 4TH OF JULY...PCPN WILL GRADUALLY EXIT TO THE EAST WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS SPREADING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. SO KEPT CHANCE POPS ROUGHLY FROM HTS TO PKB WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE AND DRIER ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH SPREADING SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY TO BRING DRIER
CONDITIONS AT LEAST OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH
WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING BY...A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WILL CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING MAINLY EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...CROSSING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CODED HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE FOR NOW. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WENT WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COMPLEX AVIATION FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CURRENTLY HAVE
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING IN VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS. EXPECT IFR AT
ALL TAF SITES AT TIMES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING IN FOG OR LOW
STRATUS OR BOTH IN SOME CASES. THE FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
SOME AFTER SUNRISE...BUT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...EXPECT MVFR TO LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY IN RAIN...STORMS
AND OR LOW STRATUS. SHOULD BE SIMILAR TONIGHT...WITH LOTS OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BRINGING FOG AND LOW STRATUS.

WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL BE NE TO E...WITH SW WINDS SOUTH OF
THE FRONT. IT SHOULD SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z
SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SPATIAL EXTENT OF FOG AND STRATUS IN
QUESTION TONIGHT. TIMING AND EXTENT OF DOWNPOURS TOMORROW MAY
VARY.

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005-006-013>015-
     024>027-033>037.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/30
NEAR TERM...JMV/30
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MZ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 030022
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
822 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAFFLES ACROSS
THE AREA...AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE THROUGH AT TIMES. THE
WEATHER MAY SETTLE DOWN A BIT ON THE 4TH AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
8 PM UPDATE...CONFINED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWEST THIRD
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH ON FRIDAY. TOOK
MOST OF THE THUNDER OUT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER CHALLENGING DAY HERE ON THE NEAR TERM DESK. ONE ROUND OF
DOWNPOURS MOVING THRU AREAS ALONG AND S OF I64 THIS AFTN. BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM OVER KY...THE SUN IS POKING THRU AND SOME BL HEATING
IS BEING REALIZED. EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG QUASI
STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER WHICH MAY
PROPAGATE INTO W ZONES LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVE. CONFIDENCE
ON THAT PANNING OUT IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH. DO THINK A GENERAL
LULL WILL BE REALIZED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE
DOWNPOURS REDEVELOP ON FRI AS A BAGGY SFC LOW MAKES A RUN INTO THE
AREA. DESPITE THE DEEPER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND DECENT
INSTABILITY REMAINING S OF THE CWA FRI...THINK THE SHRA/TSRA THAT
DO DEVELOP WITH THE LOW AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AS PWATS MAKE A RUN TO 2 INCHES. GIVEN
WHAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST 24 HRS AND WHAT IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW...WENT AHEAD AND HOISTED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS
ALONG AND S OF I64 CORRIDOR THRU 00 SAT. THIS MAY HAVE TO BE
EXTENDED IN TIME THRU TOMORROW NIGHT DEPENDING ON PROGRESSION OF
THE LOW PRESSURE AND S/W TROF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE LIKELY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...WITH CHANCES OVER THE
REMINDER WEST AND NORTH. NAM SUGGEST PWATS FROM 1.9 INCHES FRIDAY
NIGHT TO 1.7 INCHES SATURDAY. SOME H200 DIVERGENCE...MID LEVEL OMEGA
AND H850 TO H700 THETA-E AROUND 330K SUGGEST HEAVY OR PROLONGED
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE MENTIONING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND
POSSIBLE WATER ISSUES IN THE HWO.

COMFORTABLE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY AROUND 80 LOWLANDS TO
THE UPPER 60S HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A BIT WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN RESULT SUNDAY
PER LESS CLOUD COVER SPREADING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS A HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH.

USED A COMBINATION OF CONSENSUS MOS AND ALL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR THE 4TH OF JULY...PCPN WILL GRADUALLY EXIT TO THE EAST WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS SPREADING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. SO KEPT CHANCE POPS ROUGHLY FROM HTS TO PKB WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE AND DRIER ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH SPREADING SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY TO BRING DRIER
CONDITIONS AT LEAST OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH
WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING BY...A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WILL CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING MAINLY EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...CROSSING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CODED HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE FOR NOW. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WENT WITH HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...
WEAK EAST TO WET FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECT SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF A HTS-CRW-BKW LINE...BUT MOST OF THE THUNDER
OUT AS PREVIOUS RAINS HAVE SOMEWHAT STABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE.
OTHERWISE...RATHER SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH ANY EARLY VFR
BECOMING IFR/LIFR AT MAJOR TERMINALS....MAINLY AFTER 06Z.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR AFTER 12Z...BUT THEN AN ORGANIZED AREA
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE...AGAIN REDUCING AT TIMES TO IFR CONDITIONS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SPATIAL EXTENT OF FOG AND STRATUS IN
QUESTION TONIGHT. TIMING AND EXTENT OF DOWNPOURS TOMORROW MAY
VARY.

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR WVZ005-006-
     013>015-024>027-033>037.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/30
NEAR TERM...JMV/30
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JMV



000
FXUS61 KRLX 030022
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
822 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAFFLES ACROSS
THE AREA...AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE THROUGH AT TIMES. THE
WEATHER MAY SETTLE DOWN A BIT ON THE 4TH AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
8 PM UPDATE...CONFINED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWEST THIRD
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH ON FRIDAY. TOOK
MOST OF THE THUNDER OUT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER CHALLENGING DAY HERE ON THE NEAR TERM DESK. ONE ROUND OF
DOWNPOURS MOVING THRU AREAS ALONG AND S OF I64 THIS AFTN. BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM OVER KY...THE SUN IS POKING THRU AND SOME BL HEATING
IS BEING REALIZED. EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG QUASI
STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER WHICH MAY
PROPAGATE INTO W ZONES LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVE. CONFIDENCE
ON THAT PANNING OUT IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH. DO THINK A GENERAL
LULL WILL BE REALIZED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE
DOWNPOURS REDEVELOP ON FRI AS A BAGGY SFC LOW MAKES A RUN INTO THE
AREA. DESPITE THE DEEPER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND DECENT
INSTABILITY REMAINING S OF THE CWA FRI...THINK THE SHRA/TSRA THAT
DO DEVELOP WITH THE LOW AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AS PWATS MAKE A RUN TO 2 INCHES. GIVEN
WHAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST 24 HRS AND WHAT IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW...WENT AHEAD AND HOISTED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS
ALONG AND S OF I64 CORRIDOR THRU 00 SAT. THIS MAY HAVE TO BE
EXTENDED IN TIME THRU TOMORROW NIGHT DEPENDING ON PROGRESSION OF
THE LOW PRESSURE AND S/W TROF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE LIKELY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...WITH CHANCES OVER THE
REMINDER WEST AND NORTH. NAM SUGGEST PWATS FROM 1.9 INCHES FRIDAY
NIGHT TO 1.7 INCHES SATURDAY. SOME H200 DIVERGENCE...MID LEVEL OMEGA
AND H850 TO H700 THETA-E AROUND 330K SUGGEST HEAVY OR PROLONGED
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE MENTIONING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND
POSSIBLE WATER ISSUES IN THE HWO.

COMFORTABLE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY AROUND 80 LOWLANDS TO
THE UPPER 60S HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A BIT WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN RESULT SUNDAY
PER LESS CLOUD COVER SPREADING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS A HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH.

USED A COMBINATION OF CONSENSUS MOS AND ALL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR THE 4TH OF JULY...PCPN WILL GRADUALLY EXIT TO THE EAST WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS SPREADING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. SO KEPT CHANCE POPS ROUGHLY FROM HTS TO PKB WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE AND DRIER ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH SPREADING SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY TO BRING DRIER
CONDITIONS AT LEAST OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH
WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING BY...A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WILL CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING MAINLY EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...CROSSING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CODED HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE FOR NOW. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WENT WITH HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...
WEAK EAST TO WET FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECT SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF A HTS-CRW-BKW LINE...BUT MOST OF THE THUNDER
OUT AS PREVIOUS RAINS HAVE SOMEWHAT STABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE.
OTHERWISE...RATHER SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH ANY EARLY VFR
BECOMING IFR/LIFR AT MAJOR TERMINALS....MAINLY AFTER 06Z.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR AFTER 12Z...BUT THEN AN ORGANIZED AREA
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE...AGAIN REDUCING AT TIMES TO IFR CONDITIONS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SPATIAL EXTENT OF FOG AND STRATUS IN
QUESTION TONIGHT. TIMING AND EXTENT OF DOWNPOURS TOMORROW MAY
VARY.

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR WVZ005-006-
     013>015-024>027-033>037.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/30
NEAR TERM...JMV/30
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JMV



000
FXUS61 KRLX 030022
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
822 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAFFLES ACROSS
THE AREA...AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE THROUGH AT TIMES. THE
WEATHER MAY SETTLE DOWN A BIT ON THE 4TH AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
8 PM UPDATE...CONFINED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWEST THIRD
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH ON FRIDAY. TOOK
MOST OF THE THUNDER OUT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER CHALLENGING DAY HERE ON THE NEAR TERM DESK. ONE ROUND OF
DOWNPOURS MOVING THRU AREAS ALONG AND S OF I64 THIS AFTN. BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM OVER KY...THE SUN IS POKING THRU AND SOME BL HEATING
IS BEING REALIZED. EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG QUASI
STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER WHICH MAY
PROPAGATE INTO W ZONES LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVE. CONFIDENCE
ON THAT PANNING OUT IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH. DO THINK A GENERAL
LULL WILL BE REALIZED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE
DOWNPOURS REDEVELOP ON FRI AS A BAGGY SFC LOW MAKES A RUN INTO THE
AREA. DESPITE THE DEEPER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND DECENT
INSTABILITY REMAINING S OF THE CWA FRI...THINK THE SHRA/TSRA THAT
DO DEVELOP WITH THE LOW AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AS PWATS MAKE A RUN TO 2 INCHES. GIVEN
WHAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST 24 HRS AND WHAT IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW...WENT AHEAD AND HOISTED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS
ALONG AND S OF I64 CORRIDOR THRU 00 SAT. THIS MAY HAVE TO BE
EXTENDED IN TIME THRU TOMORROW NIGHT DEPENDING ON PROGRESSION OF
THE LOW PRESSURE AND S/W TROF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE LIKELY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...WITH CHANCES OVER THE
REMINDER WEST AND NORTH. NAM SUGGEST PWATS FROM 1.9 INCHES FRIDAY
NIGHT TO 1.7 INCHES SATURDAY. SOME H200 DIVERGENCE...MID LEVEL OMEGA
AND H850 TO H700 THETA-E AROUND 330K SUGGEST HEAVY OR PROLONGED
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE MENTIONING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND
POSSIBLE WATER ISSUES IN THE HWO.

COMFORTABLE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY AROUND 80 LOWLANDS TO
THE UPPER 60S HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A BIT WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN RESULT SUNDAY
PER LESS CLOUD COVER SPREADING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS A HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH.

USED A COMBINATION OF CONSENSUS MOS AND ALL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR THE 4TH OF JULY...PCPN WILL GRADUALLY EXIT TO THE EAST WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS SPREADING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. SO KEPT CHANCE POPS ROUGHLY FROM HTS TO PKB WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE AND DRIER ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH SPREADING SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY TO BRING DRIER
CONDITIONS AT LEAST OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH
WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING BY...A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WILL CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING MAINLY EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...CROSSING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CODED HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE FOR NOW. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WENT WITH HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...
WEAK EAST TO WET FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECT SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF A HTS-CRW-BKW LINE...BUT MOST OF THE THUNDER
OUT AS PREVIOUS RAINS HAVE SOMEWHAT STABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE.
OTHERWISE...RATHER SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH ANY EARLY VFR
BECOMING IFR/LIFR AT MAJOR TERMINALS....MAINLY AFTER 06Z.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR AFTER 12Z...BUT THEN AN ORGANIZED AREA
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE...AGAIN REDUCING AT TIMES TO IFR CONDITIONS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SPATIAL EXTENT OF FOG AND STRATUS IN
QUESTION TONIGHT. TIMING AND EXTENT OF DOWNPOURS TOMORROW MAY
VARY.

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR WVZ005-006-
     013>015-024>027-033>037.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/30
NEAR TERM...JMV/30
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JMV




000
FXUS61 KRLX 021824
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
224 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAFFLES ACROSS
THE AREA...AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE THROUGH AT TIMES. THE
WEATHER MAY SETTLE DOWN A BIT ON THE 4TH AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER CHALLENGING DAY HERE ON THE NEAR TERM DESK. ONE ROUND OF
DOWNPOURS MOVING THRU AREAS ALONG AND S OF I64 THIS AFTN. BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM OVER KY...THE SUN IS POKING THRU AND SOME BL HEATING
IS BEING REALIZED. EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG QUASI
STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER WHICH MAY
PROPAGATE INTO W ZONES LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVE. CONFIDENCE
ON THAT PANNING OUT IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH. DO THINK A GENERAL
LULL WILL BE REALIZED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE
DOWNPOURS REDEVELOP ON FRI AS A BAGGY SFC LOW MAKES A RUN INTO THE
AREA. DESPITE THE DEEPER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND DECENT
INSTABILITY REMAINING S OF THE CWA FRI...THINK THE SHRA/TSRA THAT
DO DEVELOP WITH THE LOW AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AS PWATS MAKE A RUN TO 2 INCHES. GIVEN
WHAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST 24 HRS AND WHAT IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW...WENT AHEAD AND HOISTED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS
ALONG AND S OF I64 CORRIDOR THRU 00 SAT. THIS MAY HAVE TO BE
EXTENDED IN TIME THRU TOMORROW NIGHT DEPENDING ON PROGRESSION OF
THE LOW PRESSURE AND S/W TROF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE LIKELY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...WITH CHANCES OVER THE
REMINDER WEST AND NORTH. NAM SUGGEST PWATS FROM 1.9 INCHES FRIDAY
NIGHT TO 1.7 INCHES SATURDAY. SOME H200 DIVERGENCE...MID LEVEL OMEGA
AND H850 TO H700 THETA-E AROUND 330K SUGGEST HEAVY OR PROLONGED
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE MENTIONING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND
POSSIBLE WATER ISSUES IN THE HWO.

COMFORTABLE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY AROUND 80 LOWLANDS TO
THE UPPER 60S HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A BIT WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN RESULT SUNDAY
PER LESS CLOUD COVER SPREADING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS A HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH.

USED A COMBINATION OF CONSENSUS MOS AND ALL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR THE 4TH OF JULY...PCPN WILL GRADUALLY EXIT TO THE EAST WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS SPREADING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. SO KEPT CHANCE POPS ROUGHLY FROM HTS TO PKB WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE AND DRIER ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH SPREADING SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY TO BRING DRIER
CONDITIONS AT LEAST OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH
WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING BY...A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WILL CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING MAINLY EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...CROSSING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CODED HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE FOR NOW. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WENT WITH HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

ONE ROUND OF SHRA MOVING THRU S WV/SW VA THRU 21Z WITH OCCASIONAL
MVFR OR EVEN IFR VSBY/CIGS. OTHERWISE THE LOW STRATUS FROM EARLIER
HAS MIXED OUT BY AND LARGE...LEAVING A BKN TO OVC MID AND HI DECK
IN PLACE.

EXPECT A GENERAL LULL IN ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...SAVE FOR PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED SHRA. TOUGH TO FIGURE EXTENT OF STRATUS AND FOG ONCE
AGAIN BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF FLOW...ANY HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER
SHOULD ALLOW TERMINALS TO FOG DOWN ESPECIALLY KHTS/KCRW/KBKW AS
THEY HAVE HAD RAIN.

FOR TOMORROW...STRATUS AND FOG WILL LIFT IN THE MORNING WHICH
COULD BE DELAYED IF A MID/HI DECK REMAINS OVERHEAD. EXPECT
SHRA...HVY AT TIMES...WITH PERHAPS A FEW TSRA TO DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SPATIAL EXTENT OF FOG AND STRATUS IN
QUESTION TONIGHT. TIMING AND EXTENT OF DOWNPOURS TOMORROW MAY
VARY.

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR WVZ005-006-
     013>015-024>027-033>037.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...30



000
FXUS61 KRLX 021824
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
224 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAFFLES ACROSS
THE AREA...AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE THROUGH AT TIMES. THE
WEATHER MAY SETTLE DOWN A BIT ON THE 4TH AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER CHALLENGING DAY HERE ON THE NEAR TERM DESK. ONE ROUND OF
DOWNPOURS MOVING THRU AREAS ALONG AND S OF I64 THIS AFTN. BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM OVER KY...THE SUN IS POKING THRU AND SOME BL HEATING
IS BEING REALIZED. EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG QUASI
STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER WHICH MAY
PROPAGATE INTO W ZONES LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVE. CONFIDENCE
ON THAT PANNING OUT IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH. DO THINK A GENERAL
LULL WILL BE REALIZED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE
DOWNPOURS REDEVELOP ON FRI AS A BAGGY SFC LOW MAKES A RUN INTO THE
AREA. DESPITE THE DEEPER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND DECENT
INSTABILITY REMAINING S OF THE CWA FRI...THINK THE SHRA/TSRA THAT
DO DEVELOP WITH THE LOW AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AS PWATS MAKE A RUN TO 2 INCHES. GIVEN
WHAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST 24 HRS AND WHAT IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW...WENT AHEAD AND HOISTED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS
ALONG AND S OF I64 CORRIDOR THRU 00 SAT. THIS MAY HAVE TO BE
EXTENDED IN TIME THRU TOMORROW NIGHT DEPENDING ON PROGRESSION OF
THE LOW PRESSURE AND S/W TROF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE LIKELY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...WITH CHANCES OVER THE
REMINDER WEST AND NORTH. NAM SUGGEST PWATS FROM 1.9 INCHES FRIDAY
NIGHT TO 1.7 INCHES SATURDAY. SOME H200 DIVERGENCE...MID LEVEL OMEGA
AND H850 TO H700 THETA-E AROUND 330K SUGGEST HEAVY OR PROLONGED
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE MENTIONING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND
POSSIBLE WATER ISSUES IN THE HWO.

COMFORTABLE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY AROUND 80 LOWLANDS TO
THE UPPER 60S HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A BIT WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN RESULT SUNDAY
PER LESS CLOUD COVER SPREADING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS A HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH.

USED A COMBINATION OF CONSENSUS MOS AND ALL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR THE 4TH OF JULY...PCPN WILL GRADUALLY EXIT TO THE EAST WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS SPREADING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. SO KEPT CHANCE POPS ROUGHLY FROM HTS TO PKB WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE AND DRIER ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH SPREADING SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY TO BRING DRIER
CONDITIONS AT LEAST OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH
WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING BY...A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WILL CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING MAINLY EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...CROSSING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CODED HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE FOR NOW. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WENT WITH HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

ONE ROUND OF SHRA MOVING THRU S WV/SW VA THRU 21Z WITH OCCASIONAL
MVFR OR EVEN IFR VSBY/CIGS. OTHERWISE THE LOW STRATUS FROM EARLIER
HAS MIXED OUT BY AND LARGE...LEAVING A BKN TO OVC MID AND HI DECK
IN PLACE.

EXPECT A GENERAL LULL IN ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...SAVE FOR PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED SHRA. TOUGH TO FIGURE EXTENT OF STRATUS AND FOG ONCE
AGAIN BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF FLOW...ANY HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER
SHOULD ALLOW TERMINALS TO FOG DOWN ESPECIALLY KHTS/KCRW/KBKW AS
THEY HAVE HAD RAIN.

FOR TOMORROW...STRATUS AND FOG WILL LIFT IN THE MORNING WHICH
COULD BE DELAYED IF A MID/HI DECK REMAINS OVERHEAD. EXPECT
SHRA...HVY AT TIMES...WITH PERHAPS A FEW TSRA TO DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SPATIAL EXTENT OF FOG AND STRATUS IN
QUESTION TONIGHT. TIMING AND EXTENT OF DOWNPOURS TOMORROW MAY
VARY.

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR WVZ005-006-
     013>015-024>027-033>037.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...30



000
FXUS61 KRLX 021824
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
224 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAFFLES ACROSS
THE AREA...AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE THROUGH AT TIMES. THE
WEATHER MAY SETTLE DOWN A BIT ON THE 4TH AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER CHALLENGING DAY HERE ON THE NEAR TERM DESK. ONE ROUND OF
DOWNPOURS MOVING THRU AREAS ALONG AND S OF I64 THIS AFTN. BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM OVER KY...THE SUN IS POKING THRU AND SOME BL HEATING
IS BEING REALIZED. EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG QUASI
STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER WHICH MAY
PROPAGATE INTO W ZONES LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVE. CONFIDENCE
ON THAT PANNING OUT IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH. DO THINK A GENERAL
LULL WILL BE REALIZED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE
DOWNPOURS REDEVELOP ON FRI AS A BAGGY SFC LOW MAKES A RUN INTO THE
AREA. DESPITE THE DEEPER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND DECENT
INSTABILITY REMAINING S OF THE CWA FRI...THINK THE SHRA/TSRA THAT
DO DEVELOP WITH THE LOW AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AS PWATS MAKE A RUN TO 2 INCHES. GIVEN
WHAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST 24 HRS AND WHAT IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW...WENT AHEAD AND HOISTED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS
ALONG AND S OF I64 CORRIDOR THRU 00 SAT. THIS MAY HAVE TO BE
EXTENDED IN TIME THRU TOMORROW NIGHT DEPENDING ON PROGRESSION OF
THE LOW PRESSURE AND S/W TROF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE LIKELY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...WITH CHANCES OVER THE
REMINDER WEST AND NORTH. NAM SUGGEST PWATS FROM 1.9 INCHES FRIDAY
NIGHT TO 1.7 INCHES SATURDAY. SOME H200 DIVERGENCE...MID LEVEL OMEGA
AND H850 TO H700 THETA-E AROUND 330K SUGGEST HEAVY OR PROLONGED
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE MENTIONING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND
POSSIBLE WATER ISSUES IN THE HWO.

COMFORTABLE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY AROUND 80 LOWLANDS TO
THE UPPER 60S HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A BIT WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN RESULT SUNDAY
PER LESS CLOUD COVER SPREADING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS A HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH.

USED A COMBINATION OF CONSENSUS MOS AND ALL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR THE 4TH OF JULY...PCPN WILL GRADUALLY EXIT TO THE EAST WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS SPREADING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. SO KEPT CHANCE POPS ROUGHLY FROM HTS TO PKB WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE AND DRIER ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH SPREADING SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY TO BRING DRIER
CONDITIONS AT LEAST OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH
WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING BY...A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WILL CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING MAINLY EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...CROSSING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CODED HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE FOR NOW. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WENT WITH HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

ONE ROUND OF SHRA MOVING THRU S WV/SW VA THRU 21Z WITH OCCASIONAL
MVFR OR EVEN IFR VSBY/CIGS. OTHERWISE THE LOW STRATUS FROM EARLIER
HAS MIXED OUT BY AND LARGE...LEAVING A BKN TO OVC MID AND HI DECK
IN PLACE.

EXPECT A GENERAL LULL IN ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...SAVE FOR PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED SHRA. TOUGH TO FIGURE EXTENT OF STRATUS AND FOG ONCE
AGAIN BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF FLOW...ANY HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER
SHOULD ALLOW TERMINALS TO FOG DOWN ESPECIALLY KHTS/KCRW/KBKW AS
THEY HAVE HAD RAIN.

FOR TOMORROW...STRATUS AND FOG WILL LIFT IN THE MORNING WHICH
COULD BE DELAYED IF A MID/HI DECK REMAINS OVERHEAD. EXPECT
SHRA...HVY AT TIMES...WITH PERHAPS A FEW TSRA TO DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SPATIAL EXTENT OF FOG AND STRATUS IN
QUESTION TONIGHT. TIMING AND EXTENT OF DOWNPOURS TOMORROW MAY
VARY.

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR WVZ005-006-
     013>015-024>027-033>037.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...30




000
FXUS61 KRLX 021732
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
132 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAFFLES ACROSS
THE AREA...AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE THROUGH AT TIMES. THE
WEATHER MAY SETTLE DOWN A BIT ON THE 4TH AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT 07Z GENERALLY STRETCHED WEST TO
EAST...BISECTING CWA IN HALF. THIS BOUNDARY WILL WAFFLE ACROSS THE
CWA TODAY...AS LOW PRESSURE...CENTERED NEAR THE LOWER OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE REGION. MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN
AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE PATH OF THIS LOW...AND SUBSEQUENT
NORTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION...OR TIMING. NAM TAKES THE LOW
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS TN...WHILE GFS TAKES THE LOW FARTHER NORTH
ACROSS KY. WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS FOR PRECIPITATION
TIMING AND NORTHERN EXTENT...WHICH KEEPS LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH...AND CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH. NUMEROUS VORT MAXES MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW AT TIMES...WHICH WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME...WILL
HELP TO TRIGGER PRECIP AT TIMES.

STILL CONCERNED ABOUT POTENTIAL WATER ISSUES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
SOUTH WITH TIME. MOIST ATMOSPHERE...PW VALUES EXPECTED TO RISE TO
AROUND 1.7 ACROSS THE SOUTH...COMBINED WITH A WEAK
FLOW...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS...AND AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES
WHICH WILL HELP TO TRIGGER/ENHANCE CONVECTION AT TIMES...COULD SEE
ISSUES DEVELOP WITH TIME. SOMEWHAT GOOD NEWS IS THAT FFG VALUES
ACROSS THE SOUTH ARE RATHER HIGH...GENERALLY 1.5 TO 2 INCHES IN 1
HOUR...AND AROUND 2-2.2 INCHES IN 3 HOURS...WILL FOR
NOW...CONTINUE A MENTION IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE LIKELY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...WITH CHANCES OVER THE
REMINDER WEST AND NORTH. NAM SUGGEST PWATS FROM 1.9 INCHES FRIDAY
NIGHT TO 1.7 INCHES SATURDAY. SOME H200 DIVERGENCE...MID LEVEL OMEGA
AND H850 TO H700 THETA-E AROUND 330K SUGGEST HEAVY OR PROLONGED
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE MENTIONING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND
POSSIBLE WATER ISSUES IN THE HWO.

COMFORTABLE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY AROUND 80 LOWLANDS TO
THE UPPER 60S HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A BIT WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN RESULT SUNDAY
PER LESS CLOUD COVER SPREADING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS A HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH.

USED A COMBINATION OF CONSENSUS MOS AND ALL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR THE 4TH OF JULY...PCPN WILL GRADUALLY EXIT TO THE EAST WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS SPREADING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. SO KEPT CHANCE POPS ROUGHLY FROM HTS TO PKB WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE AND DRIER ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH SPREADING SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY TO BRING DRIER
CONDITIONS AT LEAST OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH
WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING BY...A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WILL CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING MAINLY EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...CROSSING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CODED HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE FOR NOW. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WENT WITH HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

IFR/LIFR FOG ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH MVFR STRATUS GENERALLY SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM KHTS TO KCRW. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
AREA WIDE AFTER 14Z...HOWEVER...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT
ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA...WITH A LIGHT FLOW EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
TODAY. NUMEROUS WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW...TRIGGERING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY 15-03Z...WITH BULK
OF ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WV...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA...NORTHEAST KY AND SOUTHEAST OHIO. EXPECT HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN VICINITY OF STORMS. IN
ADDITION...WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTHERN WV AND SOUTHWEST VA DURING THE PERIOD...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF IFR FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE NORTH.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z
THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SPATIAL EXTENT OF FOG AND STRATUS IN
QUESTION TONIGHT. TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN
QUESTION.

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY... BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEK.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR WVZ005-006-
     013>015-024>027-033>037.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...SL



000
FXUS61 KRLX 021732
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
132 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAFFLES ACROSS
THE AREA...AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE THROUGH AT TIMES. THE
WEATHER MAY SETTLE DOWN A BIT ON THE 4TH AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT 07Z GENERALLY STRETCHED WEST TO
EAST...BISECTING CWA IN HALF. THIS BOUNDARY WILL WAFFLE ACROSS THE
CWA TODAY...AS LOW PRESSURE...CENTERED NEAR THE LOWER OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE REGION. MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN
AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE PATH OF THIS LOW...AND SUBSEQUENT
NORTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION...OR TIMING. NAM TAKES THE LOW
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS TN...WHILE GFS TAKES THE LOW FARTHER NORTH
ACROSS KY. WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS FOR PRECIPITATION
TIMING AND NORTHERN EXTENT...WHICH KEEPS LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH...AND CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH. NUMEROUS VORT MAXES MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW AT TIMES...WHICH WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME...WILL
HELP TO TRIGGER PRECIP AT TIMES.

STILL CONCERNED ABOUT POTENTIAL WATER ISSUES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
SOUTH WITH TIME. MOIST ATMOSPHERE...PW VALUES EXPECTED TO RISE TO
AROUND 1.7 ACROSS THE SOUTH...COMBINED WITH A WEAK
FLOW...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS...AND AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES
WHICH WILL HELP TO TRIGGER/ENHANCE CONVECTION AT TIMES...COULD SEE
ISSUES DEVELOP WITH TIME. SOMEWHAT GOOD NEWS IS THAT FFG VALUES
ACROSS THE SOUTH ARE RATHER HIGH...GENERALLY 1.5 TO 2 INCHES IN 1
HOUR...AND AROUND 2-2.2 INCHES IN 3 HOURS...WILL FOR
NOW...CONTINUE A MENTION IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE LIKELY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...WITH CHANCES OVER THE
REMINDER WEST AND NORTH. NAM SUGGEST PWATS FROM 1.9 INCHES FRIDAY
NIGHT TO 1.7 INCHES SATURDAY. SOME H200 DIVERGENCE...MID LEVEL OMEGA
AND H850 TO H700 THETA-E AROUND 330K SUGGEST HEAVY OR PROLONGED
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE MENTIONING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND
POSSIBLE WATER ISSUES IN THE HWO.

COMFORTABLE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY AROUND 80 LOWLANDS TO
THE UPPER 60S HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A BIT WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN RESULT SUNDAY
PER LESS CLOUD COVER SPREADING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS A HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH.

USED A COMBINATION OF CONSENSUS MOS AND ALL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR THE 4TH OF JULY...PCPN WILL GRADUALLY EXIT TO THE EAST WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS SPREADING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. SO KEPT CHANCE POPS ROUGHLY FROM HTS TO PKB WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE AND DRIER ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH SPREADING SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY TO BRING DRIER
CONDITIONS AT LEAST OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH
WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING BY...A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WILL CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING MAINLY EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...CROSSING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CODED HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE FOR NOW. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WENT WITH HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

IFR/LIFR FOG ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH MVFR STRATUS GENERALLY SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM KHTS TO KCRW. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
AREA WIDE AFTER 14Z...HOWEVER...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT
ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA...WITH A LIGHT FLOW EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
TODAY. NUMEROUS WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW...TRIGGERING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY 15-03Z...WITH BULK
OF ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WV...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA...NORTHEAST KY AND SOUTHEAST OHIO. EXPECT HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN VICINITY OF STORMS. IN
ADDITION...WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTHERN WV AND SOUTHWEST VA DURING THE PERIOD...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF IFR FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE NORTH.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z
THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SPATIAL EXTENT OF FOG AND STRATUS IN
QUESTION TONIGHT. TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN
QUESTION.

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY... BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEK.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR WVZ005-006-
     013>015-024>027-033>037.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...SL




000
FXUS61 KRLX 021732
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
132 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAFFLES ACROSS
THE AREA...AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE THROUGH AT TIMES. THE
WEATHER MAY SETTLE DOWN A BIT ON THE 4TH AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT 07Z GENERALLY STRETCHED WEST TO
EAST...BISECTING CWA IN HALF. THIS BOUNDARY WILL WAFFLE ACROSS THE
CWA TODAY...AS LOW PRESSURE...CENTERED NEAR THE LOWER OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE REGION. MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN
AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE PATH OF THIS LOW...AND SUBSEQUENT
NORTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION...OR TIMING. NAM TAKES THE LOW
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS TN...WHILE GFS TAKES THE LOW FARTHER NORTH
ACROSS KY. WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS FOR PRECIPITATION
TIMING AND NORTHERN EXTENT...WHICH KEEPS LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH...AND CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH. NUMEROUS VORT MAXES MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW AT TIMES...WHICH WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME...WILL
HELP TO TRIGGER PRECIP AT TIMES.

STILL CONCERNED ABOUT POTENTIAL WATER ISSUES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
SOUTH WITH TIME. MOIST ATMOSPHERE...PW VALUES EXPECTED TO RISE TO
AROUND 1.7 ACROSS THE SOUTH...COMBINED WITH A WEAK
FLOW...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS...AND AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES
WHICH WILL HELP TO TRIGGER/ENHANCE CONVECTION AT TIMES...COULD SEE
ISSUES DEVELOP WITH TIME. SOMEWHAT GOOD NEWS IS THAT FFG VALUES
ACROSS THE SOUTH ARE RATHER HIGH...GENERALLY 1.5 TO 2 INCHES IN 1
HOUR...AND AROUND 2-2.2 INCHES IN 3 HOURS...WILL FOR
NOW...CONTINUE A MENTION IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE LIKELY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...WITH CHANCES OVER THE
REMINDER WEST AND NORTH. NAM SUGGEST PWATS FROM 1.9 INCHES FRIDAY
NIGHT TO 1.7 INCHES SATURDAY. SOME H200 DIVERGENCE...MID LEVEL OMEGA
AND H850 TO H700 THETA-E AROUND 330K SUGGEST HEAVY OR PROLONGED
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE MENTIONING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND
POSSIBLE WATER ISSUES IN THE HWO.

COMFORTABLE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY AROUND 80 LOWLANDS TO
THE UPPER 60S HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A BIT WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN RESULT SUNDAY
PER LESS CLOUD COVER SPREADING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS A HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH.

USED A COMBINATION OF CONSENSUS MOS AND ALL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR THE 4TH OF JULY...PCPN WILL GRADUALLY EXIT TO THE EAST WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS SPREADING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. SO KEPT CHANCE POPS ROUGHLY FROM HTS TO PKB WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE AND DRIER ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH SPREADING SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY TO BRING DRIER
CONDITIONS AT LEAST OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH
WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING BY...A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WILL CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING MAINLY EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...CROSSING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CODED HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE FOR NOW. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WENT WITH HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

IFR/LIFR FOG ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH MVFR STRATUS GENERALLY SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM KHTS TO KCRW. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
AREA WIDE AFTER 14Z...HOWEVER...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT
ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA...WITH A LIGHT FLOW EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
TODAY. NUMEROUS WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW...TRIGGERING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY 15-03Z...WITH BULK
OF ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WV...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA...NORTHEAST KY AND SOUTHEAST OHIO. EXPECT HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN VICINITY OF STORMS. IN
ADDITION...WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTHERN WV AND SOUTHWEST VA DURING THE PERIOD...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF IFR FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE NORTH.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z
THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SPATIAL EXTENT OF FOG AND STRATUS IN
QUESTION TONIGHT. TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN
QUESTION.

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY... BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEK.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR WVZ005-006-
     013>015-024>027-033>037.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...SL




000
FXUS61 KRLX 021732
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
132 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAFFLES ACROSS
THE AREA...AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE THROUGH AT TIMES. THE
WEATHER MAY SETTLE DOWN A BIT ON THE 4TH AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT 07Z GENERALLY STRETCHED WEST TO
EAST...BISECTING CWA IN HALF. THIS BOUNDARY WILL WAFFLE ACROSS THE
CWA TODAY...AS LOW PRESSURE...CENTERED NEAR THE LOWER OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE REGION. MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN
AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE PATH OF THIS LOW...AND SUBSEQUENT
NORTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION...OR TIMING. NAM TAKES THE LOW
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS TN...WHILE GFS TAKES THE LOW FARTHER NORTH
ACROSS KY. WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS FOR PRECIPITATION
TIMING AND NORTHERN EXTENT...WHICH KEEPS LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH...AND CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH. NUMEROUS VORT MAXES MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW AT TIMES...WHICH WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME...WILL
HELP TO TRIGGER PRECIP AT TIMES.

STILL CONCERNED ABOUT POTENTIAL WATER ISSUES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
SOUTH WITH TIME. MOIST ATMOSPHERE...PW VALUES EXPECTED TO RISE TO
AROUND 1.7 ACROSS THE SOUTH...COMBINED WITH A WEAK
FLOW...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS...AND AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES
WHICH WILL HELP TO TRIGGER/ENHANCE CONVECTION AT TIMES...COULD SEE
ISSUES DEVELOP WITH TIME. SOMEWHAT GOOD NEWS IS THAT FFG VALUES
ACROSS THE SOUTH ARE RATHER HIGH...GENERALLY 1.5 TO 2 INCHES IN 1
HOUR...AND AROUND 2-2.2 INCHES IN 3 HOURS...WILL FOR
NOW...CONTINUE A MENTION IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE LIKELY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...WITH CHANCES OVER THE
REMINDER WEST AND NORTH. NAM SUGGEST PWATS FROM 1.9 INCHES FRIDAY
NIGHT TO 1.7 INCHES SATURDAY. SOME H200 DIVERGENCE...MID LEVEL OMEGA
AND H850 TO H700 THETA-E AROUND 330K SUGGEST HEAVY OR PROLONGED
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE MENTIONING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND
POSSIBLE WATER ISSUES IN THE HWO.

COMFORTABLE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY AROUND 80 LOWLANDS TO
THE UPPER 60S HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A BIT WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN RESULT SUNDAY
PER LESS CLOUD COVER SPREADING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS A HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH.

USED A COMBINATION OF CONSENSUS MOS AND ALL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR THE 4TH OF JULY...PCPN WILL GRADUALLY EXIT TO THE EAST WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS SPREADING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. SO KEPT CHANCE POPS ROUGHLY FROM HTS TO PKB WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE AND DRIER ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH SPREADING SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY TO BRING DRIER
CONDITIONS AT LEAST OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH
WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING BY...A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WILL CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING MAINLY EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...CROSSING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CODED HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE FOR NOW. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WENT WITH HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

IFR/LIFR FOG ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH MVFR STRATUS GENERALLY SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM KHTS TO KCRW. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
AREA WIDE AFTER 14Z...HOWEVER...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT
ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA...WITH A LIGHT FLOW EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
TODAY. NUMEROUS WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW...TRIGGERING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY 15-03Z...WITH BULK
OF ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WV...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA...NORTHEAST KY AND SOUTHEAST OHIO. EXPECT HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN VICINITY OF STORMS. IN
ADDITION...WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTHERN WV AND SOUTHWEST VA DURING THE PERIOD...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF IFR FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE NORTH.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z
THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SPATIAL EXTENT OF FOG AND STRATUS IN
QUESTION TONIGHT. TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN
QUESTION.

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY... BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEK.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR WVZ005-006-
     013>015-024>027-033>037.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...SL



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