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000
FXUS61 KRLX 011012
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
605 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE/WEAK FLOW TODAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.  STRONG COLD
FRONT STREAKS ACROSS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MUCH COOLER AIR
ARRIVES FOR WEEKEND.  REINFORCING FRONT MAY ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WHEN YOU GET DOWN TO THE DETAILS...IT IS NEVER EASY.

THE 88D VAD WIND PROFILES SINCE START OF GRAVEYARD
SHIFT...03Z...HAVE BEEN SHOWING STRONGER NE FLOW AT 925 MB THAN ANY
MODEL I HAVE LOOKED AT.  IT WAS NEAR 20 KNOTS...ABOUT 15
KNOTS AT 08Z.  THE EXPECTED STRATUS WE TALKED ABOUT YESTERDAY...ID
FORM...AND IS STILL MOVING SW AND STILL PENETRATING FURTHER S INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY. DESPITE THE THIN NATURE OF THIS MOISTURE...WE ARE
STILL TRYING TO HOLD ONTO PLENTY OF CLOUDS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS...THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE HEADWATERS OF THE GUYANDOTTE
AND TUG FORK. FURTHER EAST AND SOUTHEAST...WAS NOT HITTING THE LOWER
STRATUS AS HARD IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES AND UPPER GREENBRIER
VALLEY.  WHERE THE STRATUS FORMED...WAS NOT EXPECTING DENSE FOG.
AREAS THAT GOT MORE RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE THE
EXCEPTION...WITH MORE FOG FOR PREDAWN AND DAWN...SUCH AS AROUND
CLARKSBURG.

TRIED TO SLOW DOWN THE DIURNAL RISE IN TEMPERATURE DURING THE 12Z TO
15Z TIME FRAME...JUST A BIT...FOR AREAS IN THE MID OHIO VALLEY
AROUND MARIETTA AND PARKERSBURG...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN CLOUDS
HOLDING THERE.  SOME 5 TO 6 MILES IN HAZE MAY LINGER TOO.

STILL TRY TO BREAK UP THE LEFTOVER STRATUS THIS AFTERNOON.

LEFT A 20 POP OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN COUNTIES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. IN WHAT FLOW THERE IS...A CONFLUENT PATTERN WITH WEAK
WESTERLIES W OF MOUNTAINS...AND EASTERLIES STILL E IN VIRGINIA.

JUST PLAYING UP MORE OF THE DIURNAL FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.  THE
LONGER THE CLOUDS HOLD TODAY...THE SOONER IT FORMS DURING THE
NIGHT.

THOUGHT SOME OF THE MOS GUIDANCE WAS A BIT COLD TONIGHT...SUCH AS
THE 43 DEGREES ON BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MOS FOR ELKINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE FOR THE SHORT TERM IS A DECENT COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND RELATED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING IN BEHIND IT.

THE COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. SOME DISCREPANCIES ON TIMING
BETWEEN THE MODELS...THE CMC IS THE FASTEST...AND APPEARS TO FAST.
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR...WITH THE NAM LAGGING BEHIND.
WENT MAINLY WITH A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WHICH DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. HAVE AN AREA OF LIKELY POPS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. FLOW IS PRETTY FAST...SO EXPECT INDIVIDUAL CELLS TO BE FAST
MOVING. THERE IS NOT A WHOLE LOT OF INSTABILITY...BUT STILL HAVE
GOOD FORCING WITH THE FRONT. SO HAVE DECENT CHANCES OF THUNDER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY...AND THE
BEST SHEAR LAGGING WELL BEHIND...AGREE WITH SPC ANALYSIS THAT SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT ALL THAT LIKELY. BUT WITH THE FAST MOVEMENT...ANY
OUTFLOW WILL ALREADY HAVE A DECENT SYNOPTIC VELOCITY TO FEED OFF OF.
ANTICIPATING AN SPS COULD BE NEEDED FOR STRONGER CELLS...WILL
INCLUDE GUSTY OUTFLOW MENTION IN HWO.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING SATURDAY...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POP ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. PROBABLY COULD HAVE INCREASED TO CHANCE
BASED ON MODELS SHOWING GOOD UPPER LEVEL FORCING...HOWEVER
MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

FOR HIGHS AND LOWS...BLENDED IN MET GUIDANCE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THEN TRANSITIONED TO A WPC/BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS BLEND IN THE
VERY COOL AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE HIGHS ON SATURDAY STRUGGLING TO
REACH 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE AREA DOES REMAIN IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS
THE SWD EXTENT OF THE L/W DOES RETREAT. THIS MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO
TIME THE COOLEST WEATHER OTHER THAN THE INITIAL SHOT SAT NT...WHICH
IS NOW CODED UP AS THE COOLEST PART OF THE FCST. THIS INCLUDES
POTENTIALLY FROSTY TEMPERATURES FOR THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS AND IN SE
OH COME SUN MORNING.

THE NEXT REINFORCING S/W TROUGH BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES AS TO ITS TIMING
ALONG WITH TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF THE REINFORCING COOL AIR BEHIND IT
SO COULD NOT REALLY DEPICT NEXT COOL DOWN EVEN ON DAY 7 NT.

BLENDED IN WPC AND THE LOW MEX FOR LOWS SAT NT...AGAIN ON LOW END OF
GUIDANCE.  WILL NOT HWO FROST DAY 4 NT THOUGH PENDING HOW FAVORABLE
SAT NT TURNS OUT FOR RADIATIVE COOLING.  BLENDED IN WPC TEMPERATURES
FOR THE LESS CERTAIN BALANCE OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXPECTED STRATUS CEILINGS ARE WELL ENTRENCHED NEAR DAWN IN THE
OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES.  THE NE LOW LEVEL FLOW AT 925 MB IS FINALLY
BEGINNING TO WEAKEN.  NEAR 10Z THE RLX VAD WAS RUNNING NEAR 10
KNOTS...COMPARED TO 20 KNOTS AROUND 06Z.

WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT CEILINGS ON EITHER SIDE OF 1 THSD FT
BKN/OVC FOR THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES.  THE SE EDGE OF THE WIDESPREAD
STRATUS CEILINGS WAS RUNNING FORMING JUST E OF THE CKB-CRW CORRIDOR
ON SW TO NEAR SJS AND JKL IN ERN KENTUCKY.  FORMING THE STRATUS
RATHER THAN DENSE SURFACE BASED FOG SEEMED TO BE THE RIGHT CALL FOR
CRW THAT THE 00Z AND 06Z SET OF TAFS WENT WITH.

STILL DO NOT EXPECTED THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS TO REACH OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS.  MORE VALLEY FOG AROUND EKN AND THE
SOUTHERN WV COAL FIELDS.

STILL EXPECT THE THIN STRATUS TO BE STUBBORN TO ERODE/LIFT DURING
THE 12Z TO 18Z TIME FRAME TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MID OHIO VALLEY
COUNTIES NEAR PKB.  18Z IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS.

A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST
VIRGINIA CENTRAL MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

HAVE MOSTLY SCATTERED CLOUDS BY 00Z THURSDAY.  DIURNAL FOG MAY BE
FORMING FIRST...03Z TO 06Z THURSDAY...IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AROUND
CRW.  HAVE IFR/LIFR IN RIBBONS OF VALLEY FOG 06Z TO 12Z
THURSDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE LIFTING AND BREAK UP OF THE THIN BUT
LOW STRATUS CEILINGS MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    WED 10/01/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    M    M    M    M

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...KTB











000
FXUS61 KRLX 011012
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
605 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE/WEAK FLOW TODAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.  STRONG COLD
FRONT STREAKS ACROSS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MUCH COOLER AIR
ARRIVES FOR WEEKEND.  REINFORCING FRONT MAY ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WHEN YOU GET DOWN TO THE DETAILS...IT IS NEVER EASY.

THE 88D VAD WIND PROFILES SINCE START OF GRAVEYARD
SHIFT...03Z...HAVE BEEN SHOWING STRONGER NE FLOW AT 925 MB THAN ANY
MODEL I HAVE LOOKED AT.  IT WAS NEAR 20 KNOTS...ABOUT 15
KNOTS AT 08Z.  THE EXPECTED STRATUS WE TALKED ABOUT YESTERDAY...ID
FORM...AND IS STILL MOVING SW AND STILL PENETRATING FURTHER S INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY. DESPITE THE THIN NATURE OF THIS MOISTURE...WE ARE
STILL TRYING TO HOLD ONTO PLENTY OF CLOUDS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS...THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE HEADWATERS OF THE GUYANDOTTE
AND TUG FORK. FURTHER EAST AND SOUTHEAST...WAS NOT HITTING THE LOWER
STRATUS AS HARD IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES AND UPPER GREENBRIER
VALLEY.  WHERE THE STRATUS FORMED...WAS NOT EXPECTING DENSE FOG.
AREAS THAT GOT MORE RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE THE
EXCEPTION...WITH MORE FOG FOR PREDAWN AND DAWN...SUCH AS AROUND
CLARKSBURG.

TRIED TO SLOW DOWN THE DIURNAL RISE IN TEMPERATURE DURING THE 12Z TO
15Z TIME FRAME...JUST A BIT...FOR AREAS IN THE MID OHIO VALLEY
AROUND MARIETTA AND PARKERSBURG...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN CLOUDS
HOLDING THERE.  SOME 5 TO 6 MILES IN HAZE MAY LINGER TOO.

STILL TRY TO BREAK UP THE LEFTOVER STRATUS THIS AFTERNOON.

LEFT A 20 POP OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN COUNTIES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. IN WHAT FLOW THERE IS...A CONFLUENT PATTERN WITH WEAK
WESTERLIES W OF MOUNTAINS...AND EASTERLIES STILL E IN VIRGINIA.

JUST PLAYING UP MORE OF THE DIURNAL FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.  THE
LONGER THE CLOUDS HOLD TODAY...THE SOONER IT FORMS DURING THE
NIGHT.

THOUGHT SOME OF THE MOS GUIDANCE WAS A BIT COLD TONIGHT...SUCH AS
THE 43 DEGREES ON BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MOS FOR ELKINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE FOR THE SHORT TERM IS A DECENT COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND RELATED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING IN BEHIND IT.

THE COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. SOME DISCREPANCIES ON TIMING
BETWEEN THE MODELS...THE CMC IS THE FASTEST...AND APPEARS TO FAST.
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR...WITH THE NAM LAGGING BEHIND.
WENT MAINLY WITH A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WHICH DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. HAVE AN AREA OF LIKELY POPS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. FLOW IS PRETTY FAST...SO EXPECT INDIVIDUAL CELLS TO BE FAST
MOVING. THERE IS NOT A WHOLE LOT OF INSTABILITY...BUT STILL HAVE
GOOD FORCING WITH THE FRONT. SO HAVE DECENT CHANCES OF THUNDER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY...AND THE
BEST SHEAR LAGGING WELL BEHIND...AGREE WITH SPC ANALYSIS THAT SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT ALL THAT LIKELY. BUT WITH THE FAST MOVEMENT...ANY
OUTFLOW WILL ALREADY HAVE A DECENT SYNOPTIC VELOCITY TO FEED OFF OF.
ANTICIPATING AN SPS COULD BE NEEDED FOR STRONGER CELLS...WILL
INCLUDE GUSTY OUTFLOW MENTION IN HWO.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING SATURDAY...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POP ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. PROBABLY COULD HAVE INCREASED TO CHANCE
BASED ON MODELS SHOWING GOOD UPPER LEVEL FORCING...HOWEVER
MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

FOR HIGHS AND LOWS...BLENDED IN MET GUIDANCE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THEN TRANSITIONED TO A WPC/BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS BLEND IN THE
VERY COOL AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE HIGHS ON SATURDAY STRUGGLING TO
REACH 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE AREA DOES REMAIN IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS
THE SWD EXTENT OF THE L/W DOES RETREAT. THIS MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO
TIME THE COOLEST WEATHER OTHER THAN THE INITIAL SHOT SAT NT...WHICH
IS NOW CODED UP AS THE COOLEST PART OF THE FCST. THIS INCLUDES
POTENTIALLY FROSTY TEMPERATURES FOR THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS AND IN SE
OH COME SUN MORNING.

THE NEXT REINFORCING S/W TROUGH BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES AS TO ITS TIMING
ALONG WITH TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF THE REINFORCING COOL AIR BEHIND IT
SO COULD NOT REALLY DEPICT NEXT COOL DOWN EVEN ON DAY 7 NT.

BLENDED IN WPC AND THE LOW MEX FOR LOWS SAT NT...AGAIN ON LOW END OF
GUIDANCE.  WILL NOT HWO FROST DAY 4 NT THOUGH PENDING HOW FAVORABLE
SAT NT TURNS OUT FOR RADIATIVE COOLING.  BLENDED IN WPC TEMPERATURES
FOR THE LESS CERTAIN BALANCE OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXPECTED STRATUS CEILINGS ARE WELL ENTRENCHED NEAR DAWN IN THE
OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES.  THE NE LOW LEVEL FLOW AT 925 MB IS FINALLY
BEGINNING TO WEAKEN.  NEAR 10Z THE RLX VAD WAS RUNNING NEAR 10
KNOTS...COMPARED TO 20 KNOTS AROUND 06Z.

WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT CEILINGS ON EITHER SIDE OF 1 THSD FT
BKN/OVC FOR THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES.  THE SE EDGE OF THE WIDESPREAD
STRATUS CEILINGS WAS RUNNING FORMING JUST E OF THE CKB-CRW CORRIDOR
ON SW TO NEAR SJS AND JKL IN ERN KENTUCKY.  FORMING THE STRATUS
RATHER THAN DENSE SURFACE BASED FOG SEEMED TO BE THE RIGHT CALL FOR
CRW THAT THE 00Z AND 06Z SET OF TAFS WENT WITH.

STILL DO NOT EXPECTED THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS TO REACH OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS.  MORE VALLEY FOG AROUND EKN AND THE
SOUTHERN WV COAL FIELDS.

STILL EXPECT THE THIN STRATUS TO BE STUBBORN TO ERODE/LIFT DURING
THE 12Z TO 18Z TIME FRAME TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MID OHIO VALLEY
COUNTIES NEAR PKB.  18Z IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS.

A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST
VIRGINIA CENTRAL MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

HAVE MOSTLY SCATTERED CLOUDS BY 00Z THURSDAY.  DIURNAL FOG MAY BE
FORMING FIRST...03Z TO 06Z THURSDAY...IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AROUND
CRW.  HAVE IFR/LIFR IN RIBBONS OF VALLEY FOG 06Z TO 12Z
THURSDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE LIFTING AND BREAK UP OF THE THIN BUT
LOW STRATUS CEILINGS MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    WED 10/01/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    M    M    M    M

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...KTB










000
FXUS61 KRLX 010832
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
430 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE/WEAK FLOW TODAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.  STRONG COLD
FRONT STREAKS ACROSS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MUCH COOLER AIR
ARRIVES FOR WEEKEND.  REINFORCING FRONT MAY ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WHEN YOU GET DOWN TO THE DETAILS...IT IS NEVER EASY.

THE 88D VAD WIND PROFILES SINCE START OF GRAVEYARD
SHIFT...03Z...HAVE BEEN SHOWING STRONGER NE FLOW AT 925 MB THAN ANY
MODEL I HAVE LOOKED AT.  IT WAS NEAR 20 KNOTS...ABOUT 15
KNOTS AT 08Z.  THE EXPECTED STRATUS WE TALKED ABOUT YESTERDAY...ID
FORM...AND IS STILL MOVING SW AND STILL PENETRATING FURTHER S INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY. DESPITE THE THIN NATURE OF THIS MOISTURE...WE ARE
STILL TRYING TO HOLD ONTO PLENTY OF CLOUDS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS...THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE HEADWATERS OF THE GUYANDOTTE
AND TUG FORK. FURTHER EAST AND SOUTHEAST...WAS NOT HITTING THE LOWER
STRATUS AS HARD IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES AND UPPER GREENBRIER
VALLEY.  WHERE THE STRATUS FORMED...WAS NOT EXPECTING DENSE FOG.
AREAS THAT GOT MORE RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE THE
EXCEPTION...WITH MORE FOG FOR PREDAWN AND DAWN...SUCH AS AROUND
CLARKSBURG.

TRIED TO SLOW DOWN THE DIURNAL RISE IN TEMPERATURE DURING THE 12Z TO
15Z TIME FRAME...JUST A BIT...FOR AREAS IN THE MID OHIO VALLEY
AROUND MARIETTA AND PARKERSBURG...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN CLOUDS
HOLDING THERE.  SOME 5 TO 6 MILES IN HAZE MAY LINGER TOO.

STILL TRY TO BREAK UP THE LEFTOVER STRATUS THIS AFTERNOON.

LEFT A 20 POP OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN COUNTIES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. IN WHAT FLOW THERE IS...A CONFLUENT PATTERN WITH WEAK
WESTERLIES W OF MOUNTAINS...AND EASTERLIES STILL E IN VIRGINIA.

JUST PLAYING UP MORE OF THE DIURNAL FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.  THE
LONGER THE CLOUDS HOLD TODAY...THE SOONER IT FORMS DURING THE
NIGHT.

THOUGHT SOME OF THE MOS GUIDANCE WAS A BIT COLD TONIGHT...SUCH AS
THE 43 DEGREES ON BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MOS FOR ELKINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE FOR THE SHORT TERM IS A DECENT COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND RELATED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING IN BEHIND IT.

THE COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. SOME DISCREPANCIES ON TIMING
BETWEEN THE MODELS...THE CMC IS THE FASTEST...AND APPEARS TO FAST.
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR...WITH THE NAM LAGGING BEHIND.
WENT MAINLY WITH A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WHICH DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. HAVE AN AREA OF LIKELY POPS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. FLOW IS PRETTY FAST...SO EXPECT INDIVIDUAL CELLS TO BE FAST
MOVING. THERE IS NOT A WHOLE LOT OF INSTABILITY...BUT STILL HAVE
GOOD FORCING WITH THE FRONT. SO HAVE DECENT CHANCES OF THUNDER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY...AND THE
BEST SHEAR LAGGING WELL BEHIND...AGREE WITH SPC ANALYSIS THAT SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT ALL THAT LIKELY. BUT WITH THE FAST MOVEMENT...ANY
OUTFLOW WILL ALREADY HAVE A DECENT SYNOPTIC VELOCITY TO FEED OFF OF.
ANTICIPATING AN SPS COULD BE NEEDED FOR STRONGER CELLS...WILL
INCLUDE GUSTY OUTFLOW MENTION IN HWO.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING SATURDAY...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POP ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. PROBABLY COULD HAVE INCREASED TO CHANCE
BASED ON MODELS SHOWING GOOD UPPER LEVEL FORCING...HOWEVER
MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

FOR HIGHS AND LOWS...BLENDED IN MET GUIDANCE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THEN TRANSITIONED TO A WPC/BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS BLEND IN THE
VERY COOL AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE HIGHS ON SATURDAY STRUGGLING TO
REACH 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE AREA DOES REMAIN IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS
THE SWD EXTENT OF THE L/W DOES RETREAT. THIS MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO
TIME THE COOLEST WEATHER OTHER THAN THE INITIAL SHOT SAT NT...WHICH
IS NOW CODED UP AS THE COOLEST PART OF THE FCST. THIS INCLUDES
POTENTIALLY FROSTY TEMPERATURES FOR THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS AND IN SE
OH COME SUN MORNING.

THE NEXT REINFORCING S/W TROUGH BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES AS TO ITS TIMING
ALONG WITH TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF THE REINFORCING COOL AIR BEHIND IT
SO COULD NOT REALLY DEPICT NEXT COOL DOWN EVEN ON DAY 7 NT.

BLENDED IN WPC AND THE LOW MEX FOR LOWS SAT NT...AGAIN ON LOW END OF
GUIDANCE.  WILL NOT HWO FROST DAY 4 NT THOUGH PENDING HOW FAVORABLE
SAT NT TURNS OUT FOR RADIATIVE COOLING.  BLENDED IN WPC TEMPERATURES
FOR THE LESS CERTAIN BALANCE OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXPECTED STRATUS IS FORMING IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND SINKING SW ON
THE NE LOW LEVEL FLOW.  YET...THAT FLOW BREAKS DOWN AFTER 09Z.  WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT CEILINGS ON EITHER SIDE OF 1 THSD FT BKN/OVC
FOR THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES...BUT CONFIDENCE LOWERS ON WHETHER IT
CAN PUSH INTO CKB TO CRW.  VAD WINDS ON KRLX 05 TO 06Z WERE STILL NE
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS AT 925 MBS WHICH IS STRONGER THAN MOST MODELS.  SO
WILL TRY TO FORM STRATUS AND NOT THICK FOG AT CKB TO CRW.  WAS NOT
FORECASTING THE LOW STRATUS CEILING TO REACH EKN TO BKW
CORRIDOR.

STILL EXPECT THE THIN STRATUS TO BE STUBBORN TO ERODE/LIFT WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY IN THE MID OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES NEAR PKB.  18Z IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.

A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST
VIRGINIA CENTRAL MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

HAVE MOSTLY SCATTERED CLOUDS BY 00Z THURSDAY.  DIURNAL FOG MAY BE
FORMING FIRST...03Z TO 06Z THURSDAY...IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AROUND
CRW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT OF STRATUS...AND THE 1000FT THRESHOLD
ARE IN QUESTION FOR THE 08Z TO 13Z TIME FRAME. TIMING THE LIFTING
AND BREAK UP OF THE THIN STRATUS MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    WED 10/01/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...KTB







000
FXUS61 KRLX 010832
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
430 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE/WEAK FLOW TODAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.  STRONG COLD
FRONT STREAKS ACROSS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MUCH COOLER AIR
ARRIVES FOR WEEKEND.  REINFORCING FRONT MAY ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WHEN YOU GET DOWN TO THE DETAILS...IT IS NEVER EASY.

THE 88D VAD WIND PROFILES SINCE START OF GRAVEYARD
SHIFT...03Z...HAVE BEEN SHOWING STRONGER NE FLOW AT 925 MB THAN ANY
MODEL I HAVE LOOKED AT.  IT WAS NEAR 20 KNOTS...ABOUT 15
KNOTS AT 08Z.  THE EXPECTED STRATUS WE TALKED ABOUT YESTERDAY...ID
FORM...AND IS STILL MOVING SW AND STILL PENETRATING FURTHER S INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY. DESPITE THE THIN NATURE OF THIS MOISTURE...WE ARE
STILL TRYING TO HOLD ONTO PLENTY OF CLOUDS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS...THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE HEADWATERS OF THE GUYANDOTTE
AND TUG FORK. FURTHER EAST AND SOUTHEAST...WAS NOT HITTING THE LOWER
STRATUS AS HARD IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES AND UPPER GREENBRIER
VALLEY.  WHERE THE STRATUS FORMED...WAS NOT EXPECTING DENSE FOG.
AREAS THAT GOT MORE RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE THE
EXCEPTION...WITH MORE FOG FOR PREDAWN AND DAWN...SUCH AS AROUND
CLARKSBURG.

TRIED TO SLOW DOWN THE DIURNAL RISE IN TEMPERATURE DURING THE 12Z TO
15Z TIME FRAME...JUST A BIT...FOR AREAS IN THE MID OHIO VALLEY
AROUND MARIETTA AND PARKERSBURG...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN CLOUDS
HOLDING THERE.  SOME 5 TO 6 MILES IN HAZE MAY LINGER TOO.

STILL TRY TO BREAK UP THE LEFTOVER STRATUS THIS AFTERNOON.

LEFT A 20 POP OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN COUNTIES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. IN WHAT FLOW THERE IS...A CONFLUENT PATTERN WITH WEAK
WESTERLIES W OF MOUNTAINS...AND EASTERLIES STILL E IN VIRGINIA.

JUST PLAYING UP MORE OF THE DIURNAL FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.  THE
LONGER THE CLOUDS HOLD TODAY...THE SOONER IT FORMS DURING THE
NIGHT.

THOUGHT SOME OF THE MOS GUIDANCE WAS A BIT COLD TONIGHT...SUCH AS
THE 43 DEGREES ON BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MOS FOR ELKINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE FOR THE SHORT TERM IS A DECENT COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND RELATED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING IN BEHIND IT.

THE COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. SOME DISCREPANCIES ON TIMING
BETWEEN THE MODELS...THE CMC IS THE FASTEST...AND APPEARS TO FAST.
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR...WITH THE NAM LAGGING BEHIND.
WENT MAINLY WITH A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WHICH DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. HAVE AN AREA OF LIKELY POPS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. FLOW IS PRETTY FAST...SO EXPECT INDIVIDUAL CELLS TO BE FAST
MOVING. THERE IS NOT A WHOLE LOT OF INSTABILITY...BUT STILL HAVE
GOOD FORCING WITH THE FRONT. SO HAVE DECENT CHANCES OF THUNDER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY...AND THE
BEST SHEAR LAGGING WELL BEHIND...AGREE WITH SPC ANALYSIS THAT SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT ALL THAT LIKELY. BUT WITH THE FAST MOVEMENT...ANY
OUTFLOW WILL ALREADY HAVE A DECENT SYNOPTIC VELOCITY TO FEED OFF OF.
ANTICIPATING AN SPS COULD BE NEEDED FOR STRONGER CELLS...WILL
INCLUDE GUSTY OUTFLOW MENTION IN HWO.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING SATURDAY...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POP ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. PROBABLY COULD HAVE INCREASED TO CHANCE
BASED ON MODELS SHOWING GOOD UPPER LEVEL FORCING...HOWEVER
MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

FOR HIGHS AND LOWS...BLENDED IN MET GUIDANCE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THEN TRANSITIONED TO A WPC/BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS BLEND IN THE
VERY COOL AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE HIGHS ON SATURDAY STRUGGLING TO
REACH 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE AREA DOES REMAIN IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS
THE SWD EXTENT OF THE L/W DOES RETREAT. THIS MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO
TIME THE COOLEST WEATHER OTHER THAN THE INITIAL SHOT SAT NT...WHICH
IS NOW CODED UP AS THE COOLEST PART OF THE FCST. THIS INCLUDES
POTENTIALLY FROSTY TEMPERATURES FOR THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS AND IN SE
OH COME SUN MORNING.

THE NEXT REINFORCING S/W TROUGH BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES AS TO ITS TIMING
ALONG WITH TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF THE REINFORCING COOL AIR BEHIND IT
SO COULD NOT REALLY DEPICT NEXT COOL DOWN EVEN ON DAY 7 NT.

BLENDED IN WPC AND THE LOW MEX FOR LOWS SAT NT...AGAIN ON LOW END OF
GUIDANCE.  WILL NOT HWO FROST DAY 4 NT THOUGH PENDING HOW FAVORABLE
SAT NT TURNS OUT FOR RADIATIVE COOLING.  BLENDED IN WPC TEMPERATURES
FOR THE LESS CERTAIN BALANCE OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXPECTED STRATUS IS FORMING IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND SINKING SW ON
THE NE LOW LEVEL FLOW.  YET...THAT FLOW BREAKS DOWN AFTER 09Z.  WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT CEILINGS ON EITHER SIDE OF 1 THSD FT BKN/OVC
FOR THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES...BUT CONFIDENCE LOWERS ON WHETHER IT
CAN PUSH INTO CKB TO CRW.  VAD WINDS ON KRLX 05 TO 06Z WERE STILL NE
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS AT 925 MBS WHICH IS STRONGER THAN MOST MODELS.  SO
WILL TRY TO FORM STRATUS AND NOT THICK FOG AT CKB TO CRW.  WAS NOT
FORECASTING THE LOW STRATUS CEILING TO REACH EKN TO BKW
CORRIDOR.

STILL EXPECT THE THIN STRATUS TO BE STUBBORN TO ERODE/LIFT WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY IN THE MID OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES NEAR PKB.  18Z IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.

A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST
VIRGINIA CENTRAL MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

HAVE MOSTLY SCATTERED CLOUDS BY 00Z THURSDAY.  DIURNAL FOG MAY BE
FORMING FIRST...03Z TO 06Z THURSDAY...IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AROUND
CRW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT OF STRATUS...AND THE 1000FT THRESHOLD
ARE IN QUESTION FOR THE 08Z TO 13Z TIME FRAME. TIMING THE LIFTING
AND BREAK UP OF THE THIN STRATUS MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    WED 10/01/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...KTB






000
FXUS61 KRLX 010605
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
205 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITS TONIGHT.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY.
MUCH COOLER WEEKEND.  REINFORCING FRONT MAY ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
NAM KEEPS TRYING TO GIVE SOME CONVECTION OFF THE ELEVATED CAPE
ALONG THE STALLING COLD FRONT FROM AN EKN-CRW-HTS LINE THROUGH
AROUND THE 06Z-09Z TIME FRAME. GAVE IN AND CONTINUED THE LOW END
POPS THROUGH THAT TIME FRAME WITH THE HRRR ALSO SELLING A SIMILAR
SOLUTION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SFC OBS SHOWING WEAK COLD FRONT/SFC TROUGH-LIKE FEATURE GENERALLY
BISECTING THE STATE OF OHIO FROM NE TO SW...JUST EAST OF CLE-CMH-CVG
AT 18Z. AHEAD OF IT AND OUT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SE GREAT
LAKES IS A LINE OF SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PA STRETCHING SSW-WARD
INTO MORGAN/PERRY COUNTIES IN OHIO. THESE WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY
EASTWARD MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF US HWY 50 THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WILL LIKELY SHOW SOME SIGNS OF DISSIPATION AS THEY PROGRESS.

FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY PUSH
EASTWARD ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA BY 12Z WED. PRECIP CHANCES THIS EVENING
ARE A BIT PROBLEMATIC...WITH NEAR-TERM CONVECTIVE MODELS INSISTING
ON SOME WEAK REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES INTO OUR
AREA THIS EVENING.  SHOULD THIS OCCUR IT WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES...WHILE THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS REMAIN
DRY. AT ANY RATE...ANY PRECIP SHOULD END BY THE 03Z-06Z TIME FRAME
OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES...AND ANYTHING WHICH DOES DEVELOP THIS
EVENING WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THE FRONT/TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
SOUTH OVERNIGHT BUT BEGIN TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE OVERNIGHT...LAYING
UP SOMEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL WV LOWLANDS. BEHIND IT...LOW STRATUS
WILL TAKE HOLD...WHILE EAST AND SOUTH OF IT SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY...ALLOWING A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR FOG
FORMATION.

WEDNESDAY...EARLY MORNING CLOUDS AND FOG WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
WITH AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY LATE MORNING FOR MOST AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST.
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAINLY ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH SOME RIDGE TOP CONVERGENCE AND LLVL MOISTURE
POOLED IN THAT AREA.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREV FCST REGARDING TEMPS. OVERNIGHT MINS
GENERALLY MID/UPPER 50S LOWLANDS AND MAX TEMPS MID/UPPER 70S STILL
APPEAR ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET START TO THE PERIOD AS RIDGING RULES SFC AND ALOFT WED NT INTO
THU NT.

MEANWHILE...L/W TROUGH RESIDING OVER THE WRN CONUS OF LATE...SLIDES
E TO THE CENTRAL CONUS BY THU...AND TO THE ERN CONUS FRI-FRI NT.
MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON BEHAVIOR OF INDIVIDUAL S/W TROUGHS
ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LARGER L/W AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH.  THE FIRST S/W IS A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT GETS
DRAWN NEWD ON FRONT SIDE OF L/W...CROSSING FRI.  THIS WILL HAVE THE
BEST AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION EVENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  DEPICTED A MORE
NEGATIVELY TILTED PATTERN IN THE POP GRIDS.

DYNAMICS WITH THIS FEATURE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN BUOYANCY WHICH...WITH STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW...GIVE RISE TO
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...THE ONLY MITIGATING FACTOR BEING THE TIMING
WILL BE A BIT EARLY IN RELATIONSHIP TO DIURNAL HEATING.  WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO AT LEAST SEE A SEE TEXT AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER.
WILL DEFER TO THE MID SHIFT WITH THE NEW SWODY3 FOR AN HWO
INTRODUCTION.

THE FRONT WHIPS THROUGH FRI NT...DRIVEN BY THE MAIN S/W TROUGH AXIS
WHICH DIGS IN AND CLOSES OFF INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SOMEWHERE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES.  THERE REMAINS MODEL DISCREPANCY AS TO HOW FAR S
THE LOW CLOSES OFF...BUT CLEARING...DRYING AND FALLING TEMPERATURES
FOLLOW EITHER WAY.

BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS...A LITTLE LOWER
THAN PREVIOUS.  PREVIOUS FCST LOOKED GOOD FOR HIGHS THU.  BLENDED IN
A COMBINATION OF NAM AND GFS MODEL TEMPERATURES FOR FRI...HIGHS
ENDED UP CLOSE TO PREVIOUS AS A RESULT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
L/W TROUGH DOMINATES THE ERN CONUS THIS PERIOD WITH INITIAL SHOT OF
COLD AIR FIRMLY IN PLACE FRI.  THE GFS TAKES MOST OF SAT TO GET THE
MAIN TROUGH AXIS THROUGH WHILE THE ECMWF IS FASTER...BUT BRINGS
ANOTHER S/W TROUGH AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE L/W THROUGH ON SAT.
EITHER WAY...A FEW SHOWERS COULD OCCUR IN THE COLD ADVECTION UPSLOPE
FLOW BENEATH THE COLD AIR ALOFT.

THE AREA DOES REMAIN IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE MUCH OF THE PERIOD AFTER
THAT AS THE SWD EXTENT OF THE L/W DOES RETREAT.  THIS MAKES IT
DIFFICULT TO TIME THE COOLEST WEATHER OTHER THAN THE INITIAL SHOT
SAT...WHICH IS NOW CODED UP AS THE COOLEST PART OF THE FCST.  THIS
INCLUDES POTENTIALLY FROSTY TEMPERATURES FOR THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS
AND IN SE OH COME SUN MORNING.

THE NEXT REINFORCING S/W TROUGH BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES AS TO ITS TIMING
ALONG WITH TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF THE REINFORCING COOL AIR BEHIND IT
SO COULD NOT REALLY DEPICT NEXT COOL DOWN EVEN ON DAY 7 NT.

BLENDED IN GFS...THE COLDER MODEL...FOR TEMPERATURES SAT AND HAVE
HIGHS SAT ON LOW EDGE OF GUIDANCE AND WELL BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 50S
LOWLANDS.  BLENDED IN WPC AND THE LOW MEX FOR LOWS SAT NT...AGAIN ON
LOW END OF GUIDANCE.  WILL NOT HWO FROST DAY 4 NT THOUGH PENDING HOW
FAVORABLE SAT NT TURNS OUT FOR RADIATIVE COOLING.  BLENDED IN WPC
TEMPERATURES FOR THE LESS CERTAIN BALANCE OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXPECTED STRATUS IS FORMING IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND SINKING SW ON
THE NE LOW LEVEL FLOW.  YET...THAT FLOW BREAKS DOWN AFTER 09Z.  WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT CEILINGS ON EITHER SIDE OF 1 THSD FT BKN/OVC
FOR THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES...BUT CONFIDENCE LOWERS ON WHETHER IT
CAN PUSH INTO CKB TO CRW.  VAD WINDS ON KRLX 05 TO 06Z WERE STILL NE
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS AT 925 MBS WHICH IS STRONGER THAN MOST MODELS.  SO
WILL TRY TO FORM STRATUS AND NOT THICK FOG AT CKB TO CRW.  WAS NOT
FORECASTING THE LOW STRATUS CEILING TO REACH EKN TO BKW
CORRIDOR.

STILL EXPECT THE THIN STRATUS TO BE STUBBORN TO ERODE/LIFT WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY IN THE MID OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES NEAR PKB.  18Z IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.

A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST
VIRGINIA CENTRAL MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

HAVE MOSTLY SCATTERED CLOUDS BY 00Z THURSDAY.  DIURNAL FOG MAY BE
FORMING FIRST...03Z TO 06Z THURSDAY...IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AROUND
CRW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT OF STRATUS...AND THE 1000FT THRESHOLD
ARE IN QUESTION FOR THE 08Z TO 13Z TIME FRAME. TIMING THE LIFTING
AND BREAK UP OF THE THIN STRATUS MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              WED 10/01/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    L    H    M    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...50/26
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...KTB










000
FXUS61 KRLX 010605
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
205 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITS TONIGHT.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY.
MUCH COOLER WEEKEND.  REINFORCING FRONT MAY ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
NAM KEEPS TRYING TO GIVE SOME CONVECTION OFF THE ELEVATED CAPE
ALONG THE STALLING COLD FRONT FROM AN EKN-CRW-HTS LINE THROUGH
AROUND THE 06Z-09Z TIME FRAME. GAVE IN AND CONTINUED THE LOW END
POPS THROUGH THAT TIME FRAME WITH THE HRRR ALSO SELLING A SIMILAR
SOLUTION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SFC OBS SHOWING WEAK COLD FRONT/SFC TROUGH-LIKE FEATURE GENERALLY
BISECTING THE STATE OF OHIO FROM NE TO SW...JUST EAST OF CLE-CMH-CVG
AT 18Z. AHEAD OF IT AND OUT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SE GREAT
LAKES IS A LINE OF SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PA STRETCHING SSW-WARD
INTO MORGAN/PERRY COUNTIES IN OHIO. THESE WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY
EASTWARD MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF US HWY 50 THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WILL LIKELY SHOW SOME SIGNS OF DISSIPATION AS THEY PROGRESS.

FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY PUSH
EASTWARD ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA BY 12Z WED. PRECIP CHANCES THIS EVENING
ARE A BIT PROBLEMATIC...WITH NEAR-TERM CONVECTIVE MODELS INSISTING
ON SOME WEAK REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES INTO OUR
AREA THIS EVENING.  SHOULD THIS OCCUR IT WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES...WHILE THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS REMAIN
DRY. AT ANY RATE...ANY PRECIP SHOULD END BY THE 03Z-06Z TIME FRAME
OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES...AND ANYTHING WHICH DOES DEVELOP THIS
EVENING WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THE FRONT/TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
SOUTH OVERNIGHT BUT BEGIN TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE OVERNIGHT...LAYING
UP SOMEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL WV LOWLANDS. BEHIND IT...LOW STRATUS
WILL TAKE HOLD...WHILE EAST AND SOUTH OF IT SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY...ALLOWING A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR FOG
FORMATION.

WEDNESDAY...EARLY MORNING CLOUDS AND FOG WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
WITH AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY LATE MORNING FOR MOST AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST.
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAINLY ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH SOME RIDGE TOP CONVERGENCE AND LLVL MOISTURE
POOLED IN THAT AREA.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREV FCST REGARDING TEMPS. OVERNIGHT MINS
GENERALLY MID/UPPER 50S LOWLANDS AND MAX TEMPS MID/UPPER 70S STILL
APPEAR ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET START TO THE PERIOD AS RIDGING RULES SFC AND ALOFT WED NT INTO
THU NT.

MEANWHILE...L/W TROUGH RESIDING OVER THE WRN CONUS OF LATE...SLIDES
E TO THE CENTRAL CONUS BY THU...AND TO THE ERN CONUS FRI-FRI NT.
MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON BEHAVIOR OF INDIVIDUAL S/W TROUGHS
ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LARGER L/W AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH.  THE FIRST S/W IS A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT GETS
DRAWN NEWD ON FRONT SIDE OF L/W...CROSSING FRI.  THIS WILL HAVE THE
BEST AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION EVENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  DEPICTED A MORE
NEGATIVELY TILTED PATTERN IN THE POP GRIDS.

DYNAMICS WITH THIS FEATURE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN BUOYANCY WHICH...WITH STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW...GIVE RISE TO
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...THE ONLY MITIGATING FACTOR BEING THE TIMING
WILL BE A BIT EARLY IN RELATIONSHIP TO DIURNAL HEATING.  WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO AT LEAST SEE A SEE TEXT AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER.
WILL DEFER TO THE MID SHIFT WITH THE NEW SWODY3 FOR AN HWO
INTRODUCTION.

THE FRONT WHIPS THROUGH FRI NT...DRIVEN BY THE MAIN S/W TROUGH AXIS
WHICH DIGS IN AND CLOSES OFF INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SOMEWHERE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES.  THERE REMAINS MODEL DISCREPANCY AS TO HOW FAR S
THE LOW CLOSES OFF...BUT CLEARING...DRYING AND FALLING TEMPERATURES
FOLLOW EITHER WAY.

BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS...A LITTLE LOWER
THAN PREVIOUS.  PREVIOUS FCST LOOKED GOOD FOR HIGHS THU.  BLENDED IN
A COMBINATION OF NAM AND GFS MODEL TEMPERATURES FOR FRI...HIGHS
ENDED UP CLOSE TO PREVIOUS AS A RESULT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
L/W TROUGH DOMINATES THE ERN CONUS THIS PERIOD WITH INITIAL SHOT OF
COLD AIR FIRMLY IN PLACE FRI.  THE GFS TAKES MOST OF SAT TO GET THE
MAIN TROUGH AXIS THROUGH WHILE THE ECMWF IS FASTER...BUT BRINGS
ANOTHER S/W TROUGH AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE L/W THROUGH ON SAT.
EITHER WAY...A FEW SHOWERS COULD OCCUR IN THE COLD ADVECTION UPSLOPE
FLOW BENEATH THE COLD AIR ALOFT.

THE AREA DOES REMAIN IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE MUCH OF THE PERIOD AFTER
THAT AS THE SWD EXTENT OF THE L/W DOES RETREAT.  THIS MAKES IT
DIFFICULT TO TIME THE COOLEST WEATHER OTHER THAN THE INITIAL SHOT
SAT...WHICH IS NOW CODED UP AS THE COOLEST PART OF THE FCST.  THIS
INCLUDES POTENTIALLY FROSTY TEMPERATURES FOR THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS
AND IN SE OH COME SUN MORNING.

THE NEXT REINFORCING S/W TROUGH BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES AS TO ITS TIMING
ALONG WITH TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF THE REINFORCING COOL AIR BEHIND IT
SO COULD NOT REALLY DEPICT NEXT COOL DOWN EVEN ON DAY 7 NT.

BLENDED IN GFS...THE COLDER MODEL...FOR TEMPERATURES SAT AND HAVE
HIGHS SAT ON LOW EDGE OF GUIDANCE AND WELL BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 50S
LOWLANDS.  BLENDED IN WPC AND THE LOW MEX FOR LOWS SAT NT...AGAIN ON
LOW END OF GUIDANCE.  WILL NOT HWO FROST DAY 4 NT THOUGH PENDING HOW
FAVORABLE SAT NT TURNS OUT FOR RADIATIVE COOLING.  BLENDED IN WPC
TEMPERATURES FOR THE LESS CERTAIN BALANCE OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXPECTED STRATUS IS FORMING IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND SINKING SW ON
THE NE LOW LEVEL FLOW.  YET...THAT FLOW BREAKS DOWN AFTER 09Z.  WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT CEILINGS ON EITHER SIDE OF 1 THSD FT BKN/OVC
FOR THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES...BUT CONFIDENCE LOWERS ON WHETHER IT
CAN PUSH INTO CKB TO CRW.  VAD WINDS ON KRLX 05 TO 06Z WERE STILL NE
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS AT 925 MBS WHICH IS STRONGER THAN MOST MODELS.  SO
WILL TRY TO FORM STRATUS AND NOT THICK FOG AT CKB TO CRW.  WAS NOT
FORECASTING THE LOW STRATUS CEILING TO REACH EKN TO BKW
CORRIDOR.

STILL EXPECT THE THIN STRATUS TO BE STUBBORN TO ERODE/LIFT WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY IN THE MID OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES NEAR PKB.  18Z IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.

A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST
VIRGINIA CENTRAL MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

HAVE MOSTLY SCATTERED CLOUDS BY 00Z THURSDAY.  DIURNAL FOG MAY BE
FORMING FIRST...03Z TO 06Z THURSDAY...IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AROUND
CRW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT OF STRATUS...AND THE 1000FT THRESHOLD
ARE IN QUESTION FOR THE 08Z TO 13Z TIME FRAME. TIMING THE LIFTING
AND BREAK UP OF THE THIN STRATUS MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              WED 10/01/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    L    H    M    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...50/26
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...KTB











000
FXUS61 KRLX 010234
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1034 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITS TONIGHT.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY.
MUCH COOLER WEEKEND.  REINFORCING FRONT MAY ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE...
NAM KEEPS TRYING TO GIVE SOME CONVECTION OFF THE ELEVATED CAPE
ALONG THE STALLING COLD FRONT FROM AN EKN-CRW-HTS LINE THROUGH
AROUND THE 06Z-09Z TIME FRAME. GAVE IN AND CONTINUED THE LOW END
POPS THROUGH THAT TIME FRAME WITH THE HRRR ALSO SELLING A SIMILAR
SOLUTION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SFC OBS SHOWING WEAK COLD FRONT/SFC TROUGH-LIKE FEATURE GENERALLY
BISECTING THE STATE OF OHIO FROM NE TO SW...JUST EAST OF CLE-CMH-CVG
AT 18Z. AHEAD OF IT AND OUT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SE GREAT
LAKES IS A LINE OF SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PA STRETCHING SSW-WARD
INTO MORGAN/PERRY COUNTIES IN OHIO. THESE WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY
EASTWARD MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF US HWY 50 THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WILL LIKELY SHOW SOME SIGNS OF DISSIPATION AS THEY PROGRESS.

FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY PUSH
EASTWARD ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA BY 12Z WED. PRECIP CHANCES THIS EVENING
ARE A BIT PROBLEMATIC...WITH NEAR-TERM CONVECTIVE MODELS INSISTING
ON SOME WEAK REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES INTO OUR
AREA THIS EVENING.  SHOULD THIS OCCUR IT WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES...WHILE THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS REMAIN
DRY. AT ANY RATE...ANY PRECIP SHOULD END BY THE 03Z-06Z TIME FRAME
OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES...AND ANYTHING WHICH DOES DEVELOP THIS
EVENING WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THE FRONT/TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
SOUTH OVERNIGHT BUT BEGIN TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE OVERNIGHT...LAYING
UP SOMEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL WV LOWLANDS. BEHIND IT...LOW STRATUS
WILL TAKE HOLD...WHILE EAST AND SOUTH OF IT SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY...ALLOWING A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR FOG
FORMATION.

WEDNESDAY...EARLY MORNING CLOUDS AND FOG WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
WITH AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY LATE MORNING FOR MOST AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST.
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAINLY ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH SOME RIDGE TOP CONVERGENCE AND LLVL MOISTURE
POOLED IN THAT AREA.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREV FCST REGARDING TEMPS. OVERNIGHT MINS
GENERALLY MID/UPPER 50S LOWLANDS AND MAX TEMPS MID/UPPER 70S STILL
APPEAR ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET START TO THE PERIOD AS RIDGING RULES SFC AND ALOFT WED NT INTO
THU NT.

MEANWHILE...L/W TROUGH RESIDING OVER THE WRN CONUS OF LATE...SLIDES
E TO THE CENTRAL CONUS BY THU...AND TO THE ERN CONUS FRI-FRI NT.
MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON BEHAVIOR OF INDIVIDUAL S/W TROUGHS
ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LARGER L/W AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH.  THE FIRST S/W IS A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT GETS
DRAWN NEWD ON FRONT SIDE OF L/W...CROSSING FRI.  THIS WILL HAVE THE
BEST AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION EVENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  DEPICTED A MORE
NEGATIVELY TILTED PATTERN IN THE POP GRIDS.

DYNAMICS WITH THIS FEATURE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN BUOYANCY WHICH...WITH STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW...GIVE RISE TO
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...THE ONLY MITIGATING FACTOR BEING THE TIMING
WILL BE A BIT EARLY IN RELATIONSHIP TO DIURNAL HEATING.  WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO AT LEAST SEE A SEE TEXT AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER.
WILL DEFER TO THE MID SHIFT WITH THE NEW SWODY3 FOR AN HWO
INTRODUCTION.

THE FRONT WHIPS THROUGH FRI NT...DRIVEN BY THE MAIN S/W TROUGH AXIS
WHICH DIGS IN AND CLOSES OFF INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SOMEWHERE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES.  THERE REMAINS MODEL DISCREPANCY AS TO HOW FAR S
THE LOW CLOSES OFF...BUT CLEARING...DRYING AND FALLING TEMPERATURES
FOLLOW EITHER WAY.

BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS...A LITTLE LOWER
THAN PREVIOUS.  PREVIOUS FCST LOOKED GOOD FOR HIGHS THU.  BLENDED IN
A COMBINATION OF NAM AND GFS MODEL TEMPERATURES FOR FRI...HIGHS
ENDED UP CLOSE TO PREVIOUS AS A RESULT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
L/W TROUGH DOMINATES THE ERN CONUS THIS PERIOD WITH INITIAL SHOT OF
COLD AIR FIRMLY IN PLACE FRI.  THE GFS TAKES MOST OF SAT TO GET THE
MAIN TROUGH AXIS THROUGH WHILE THE ECMWF IS FASTER...BUT BRINGS
ANOTHER S/W TROUGH AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE L/W THROUGH ON SAT.
EITHER WAY...A FEW SHOWERS COULD OCCUR IN THE COLD ADVECTION UPSLOPE
FLOW BENEATH THE COLD AIR ALOFT.

THE AREA DOES REMAIN IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE MUCH OF THE PERIOD AFTER
THAT AS THE SWD EXTENT OF THE L/W DOES RETREAT.  THIS MAKES IT
DIFFICULT TO TIME THE COOLEST WEATHER OTHER THAN THE INITIAL SHOT
SAT...WHICH IS NOW CODED UP AS THE COOLEST PART OF THE FCST.  THIS
INCLUDES POTENTIALLY FROSTY TEMPERATURES FOR THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS
AND IN SE OH COME SUN MORNING.

THE NEXT REINFORCING S/W TROUGH BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES AS TO ITS TIMING
ALONG WITH TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF THE REINFORCING COOL AIR BEHIND IT
SO COULD NOT REALLY DEPICT NEXT COOL DOWN EVEN ON DAY 7 NT.

BLENDED IN GFS...THE COLDER MODEL...FOR TEMPERATURES SAT AND HAVE
HIGHS SAT ON LOW EDGE OF GUIDANCE AND WELL BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 50S
LOWLANDS.  BLENDED IN WPC AND THE LOW MEX FOR LOWS SAT NT...AGAIN ON
LOW END OF GUIDANCE.  WILL NOT HWO FROST DAY 4 NT THOUGH PENDING HOW
FAVORABLE SAT NT TURNS OUT FOR RADIATIVE COOLING.  BLENDED IN WPC
TEMPERATURES FOR THE LESS CERTAIN BALANCE OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT STRATUS TO FORM THIS EVENING AND ROLL IN FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT. BIGGEST QUESTIONS ARE THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE STRATUS
AND WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL GO IFR. LEANED ON THE NAM FOR THESE
ANSWERS AND KEEP CRW IN THE STRATUS...BRINGING IT IN TO BKW AND
EKN LATE...NEAR THE DAWN TIME FRAME.

STRATUS COULD BE STUBBORN TO ERODE/LIFT WEDNESDAY. 18Z IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION FOR THE IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.

GUIDANCE PEGS THE VISIBILITIES...BUT WILL KEEP THE VISIBILITIES AT
6SM OR GREATER WHERE THE STRATUS ANCHORS IN. COAL FIELD AREAS ARE
THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE IFR OR WORSE FOG...BUT SHOULD NOT AFFECT
ANY TERMINALS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT OF STRATUS...AND THE 1000FT THRESHOLD
ARE IN QUESTION. MAY TAKE LONGER FOR STRATUS TO DISSOLVE
WEDNESDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  WED 10/01/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/50
NEAR TERM...50/26
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS61 KRLX 010234
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1034 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITS TONIGHT.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY.
MUCH COOLER WEEKEND.  REINFORCING FRONT MAY ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE...
NAM KEEPS TRYING TO GIVE SOME CONVECTION OFF THE ELEVATED CAPE
ALONG THE STALLING COLD FRONT FROM AN EKN-CRW-HTS LINE THROUGH
AROUND THE 06Z-09Z TIME FRAME. GAVE IN AND CONTINUED THE LOW END
POPS THROUGH THAT TIME FRAME WITH THE HRRR ALSO SELLING A SIMILAR
SOLUTION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SFC OBS SHOWING WEAK COLD FRONT/SFC TROUGH-LIKE FEATURE GENERALLY
BISECTING THE STATE OF OHIO FROM NE TO SW...JUST EAST OF CLE-CMH-CVG
AT 18Z. AHEAD OF IT AND OUT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SE GREAT
LAKES IS A LINE OF SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PA STRETCHING SSW-WARD
INTO MORGAN/PERRY COUNTIES IN OHIO. THESE WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY
EASTWARD MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF US HWY 50 THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WILL LIKELY SHOW SOME SIGNS OF DISSIPATION AS THEY PROGRESS.

FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY PUSH
EASTWARD ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA BY 12Z WED. PRECIP CHANCES THIS EVENING
ARE A BIT PROBLEMATIC...WITH NEAR-TERM CONVECTIVE MODELS INSISTING
ON SOME WEAK REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES INTO OUR
AREA THIS EVENING.  SHOULD THIS OCCUR IT WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES...WHILE THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS REMAIN
DRY. AT ANY RATE...ANY PRECIP SHOULD END BY THE 03Z-06Z TIME FRAME
OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES...AND ANYTHING WHICH DOES DEVELOP THIS
EVENING WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THE FRONT/TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
SOUTH OVERNIGHT BUT BEGIN TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE OVERNIGHT...LAYING
UP SOMEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL WV LOWLANDS. BEHIND IT...LOW STRATUS
WILL TAKE HOLD...WHILE EAST AND SOUTH OF IT SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY...ALLOWING A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR FOG
FORMATION.

WEDNESDAY...EARLY MORNING CLOUDS AND FOG WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
WITH AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY LATE MORNING FOR MOST AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST.
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAINLY ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH SOME RIDGE TOP CONVERGENCE AND LLVL MOISTURE
POOLED IN THAT AREA.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREV FCST REGARDING TEMPS. OVERNIGHT MINS
GENERALLY MID/UPPER 50S LOWLANDS AND MAX TEMPS MID/UPPER 70S STILL
APPEAR ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET START TO THE PERIOD AS RIDGING RULES SFC AND ALOFT WED NT INTO
THU NT.

MEANWHILE...L/W TROUGH RESIDING OVER THE WRN CONUS OF LATE...SLIDES
E TO THE CENTRAL CONUS BY THU...AND TO THE ERN CONUS FRI-FRI NT.
MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON BEHAVIOR OF INDIVIDUAL S/W TROUGHS
ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LARGER L/W AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH.  THE FIRST S/W IS A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT GETS
DRAWN NEWD ON FRONT SIDE OF L/W...CROSSING FRI.  THIS WILL HAVE THE
BEST AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION EVENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  DEPICTED A MORE
NEGATIVELY TILTED PATTERN IN THE POP GRIDS.

DYNAMICS WITH THIS FEATURE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN BUOYANCY WHICH...WITH STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW...GIVE RISE TO
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...THE ONLY MITIGATING FACTOR BEING THE TIMING
WILL BE A BIT EARLY IN RELATIONSHIP TO DIURNAL HEATING.  WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO AT LEAST SEE A SEE TEXT AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER.
WILL DEFER TO THE MID SHIFT WITH THE NEW SWODY3 FOR AN HWO
INTRODUCTION.

THE FRONT WHIPS THROUGH FRI NT...DRIVEN BY THE MAIN S/W TROUGH AXIS
WHICH DIGS IN AND CLOSES OFF INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SOMEWHERE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES.  THERE REMAINS MODEL DISCREPANCY AS TO HOW FAR S
THE LOW CLOSES OFF...BUT CLEARING...DRYING AND FALLING TEMPERATURES
FOLLOW EITHER WAY.

BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS...A LITTLE LOWER
THAN PREVIOUS.  PREVIOUS FCST LOOKED GOOD FOR HIGHS THU.  BLENDED IN
A COMBINATION OF NAM AND GFS MODEL TEMPERATURES FOR FRI...HIGHS
ENDED UP CLOSE TO PREVIOUS AS A RESULT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
L/W TROUGH DOMINATES THE ERN CONUS THIS PERIOD WITH INITIAL SHOT OF
COLD AIR FIRMLY IN PLACE FRI.  THE GFS TAKES MOST OF SAT TO GET THE
MAIN TROUGH AXIS THROUGH WHILE THE ECMWF IS FASTER...BUT BRINGS
ANOTHER S/W TROUGH AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE L/W THROUGH ON SAT.
EITHER WAY...A FEW SHOWERS COULD OCCUR IN THE COLD ADVECTION UPSLOPE
FLOW BENEATH THE COLD AIR ALOFT.

THE AREA DOES REMAIN IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE MUCH OF THE PERIOD AFTER
THAT AS THE SWD EXTENT OF THE L/W DOES RETREAT.  THIS MAKES IT
DIFFICULT TO TIME THE COOLEST WEATHER OTHER THAN THE INITIAL SHOT
SAT...WHICH IS NOW CODED UP AS THE COOLEST PART OF THE FCST.  THIS
INCLUDES POTENTIALLY FROSTY TEMPERATURES FOR THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS
AND IN SE OH COME SUN MORNING.

THE NEXT REINFORCING S/W TROUGH BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES AS TO ITS TIMING
ALONG WITH TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF THE REINFORCING COOL AIR BEHIND IT
SO COULD NOT REALLY DEPICT NEXT COOL DOWN EVEN ON DAY 7 NT.

BLENDED IN GFS...THE COLDER MODEL...FOR TEMPERATURES SAT AND HAVE
HIGHS SAT ON LOW EDGE OF GUIDANCE AND WELL BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 50S
LOWLANDS.  BLENDED IN WPC AND THE LOW MEX FOR LOWS SAT NT...AGAIN ON
LOW END OF GUIDANCE.  WILL NOT HWO FROST DAY 4 NT THOUGH PENDING HOW
FAVORABLE SAT NT TURNS OUT FOR RADIATIVE COOLING.  BLENDED IN WPC
TEMPERATURES FOR THE LESS CERTAIN BALANCE OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT STRATUS TO FORM THIS EVENING AND ROLL IN FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT. BIGGEST QUESTIONS ARE THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE STRATUS
AND WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL GO IFR. LEANED ON THE NAM FOR THESE
ANSWERS AND KEEP CRW IN THE STRATUS...BRINGING IT IN TO BKW AND
EKN LATE...NEAR THE DAWN TIME FRAME.

STRATUS COULD BE STUBBORN TO ERODE/LIFT WEDNESDAY. 18Z IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION FOR THE IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.

GUIDANCE PEGS THE VISIBILITIES...BUT WILL KEEP THE VISIBILITIES AT
6SM OR GREATER WHERE THE STRATUS ANCHORS IN. COAL FIELD AREAS ARE
THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE IFR OR WORSE FOG...BUT SHOULD NOT AFFECT
ANY TERMINALS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT OF STRATUS...AND THE 1000FT THRESHOLD
ARE IN QUESTION. MAY TAKE LONGER FOR STRATUS TO DISSOLVE
WEDNESDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  WED 10/01/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/50
NEAR TERM...50/26
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...26








000
FXUS61 KRLX 302340
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
740 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITS TONIGHT.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY.
MUCH COOLER WEEKEND.  REINFORCING FRONT MAY ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE...
COLD FRONT AT AROUND THE OHIO RIVER AT THIS HOUR. CARRIED THE POPS
A BIT FURTHER INTO THE EVENING TIME...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN
ZONES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SFC OBS SHOWING WEAK COLD FRONT/SFC TROUGH-LIKE FEATURE GENERALLY
BISECTING THE STATE OF OHIO FROM NE TO SW...JUST EAST OF CLE-CMH-CVG
AT 18Z. AHEAD OF IT AND OUT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SE GREAT
LAKES IS A LINE OF SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PA STRETCHING SSW-WARD
INTO MORGAN/PERRY COUNTIES IN OHIO. THESE WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY
EASTWARD MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF US HWY 50 THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WILL LIKELY SHOW SOME SIGNS OF DISSIPATION AS THEY PROGRESS.

FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY PUSH
EASTWARD ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA BY 12Z WED. PRECIP CHANCES THIS EVENING
ARE A BIT PROBLEMATIC...WITH NEAR-TERM CONVECTIVE MODELS INSISTING
ON SOME WEAK REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES INTO OUR
AREA THIS EVENING.  SHOULD THIS OCCUR IT WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES...WHILE THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS REMAIN
DRY. AT ANY RATE...ANY PRECIP SHOULD END BY THE 03Z-06Z TIME FRAME
OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES...AND ANYTHING WHICH DOES DEVELOP THIS
EVENING WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THE FRONT/TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
SOUTH OVERNIGHT BUT BEGIN TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE OVERNIGHT...LAYING
UP SOMEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL WV LOWLANDS. BEHIND IT...LOW STRATUS
WILL TAKE HOLD...WHILE EAST AND SOUTH OF IT SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY...ALLOWING A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR FOG
FORMATION.

WEDNESDAY...EARLY MORNING CLOUDS AND FOG WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
WITH AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY LATE MORNING FOR MOST AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST.
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAINLY ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH SOME RIDGE TOP CONVERGENCE AND LLVL MOISTURE
POOLED IN THAT AREA.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREV FCST REGARDING TEMPS. OVERNIGHT MINS
GENERALLY MID/UPPER 50S LOWLANDS AND MAX TEMPS MID/UPPER 70S STILL
APPEAR ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET START TO THE PERIOD AS RIDGING RULES SFC AND ALOFT WED NT INTO
THU NT.

MEANWHILE...L/W TROUGH RESIDING OVER THE WRN CONUS OF LATE...SLIDES
E TO THE CENTRAL CONUS BY THU...AND TO THE ERN CONUS FRI-FRI NT.
MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON BEHAVIOR OF INDIVIDUAL S/W TROUGHS
ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LARGER L/W AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH.  THE FIRST S/W IS A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT GETS
DRAWN NEWD ON FRONT SIDE OF L/W...CROSSING FRI.  THIS WILL HAVE THE
BEST AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION EVENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  DEPICTED A MORE
NEGATIVELY TILTED PATTERN IN THE POP GRIDS.

DYNAMICS WITH THIS FEATURE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN BUOYANCY WHICH...WITH STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW...GIVE RISE TO
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...THE ONLY MITIGATING FACTOR BEING THE TIMING
WILL BE A BIT EARLY IN RELATIONSHIP TO DIURNAL HEATING.  WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO AT LEAST SEE A SEE TEXT AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER.
WILL DEFER TO THE MID SHIFT WITH THE NEW SWODY3 FOR AN HWO
INTRODUCTION.

THE FRONT WHIPS THROUGH FRI NT...DRIVEN BY THE MAIN S/W TROUGH AXIS
WHICH DIGS IN AND CLOSES OFF INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SOMEWHERE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES.  THERE REMAINS MODEL DISCREPANCY AS TO HOW FAR S
THE LOW CLOSES OFF...BUT CLEARING...DRYING AND FALLING TEMPERATURES
FOLLOW EITHER WAY.

BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS...A LITTLE LOWER
THAN PREVIOUS.  PREVIOUS FCST LOOKED GOOD FOR HIGHS THU.  BLENDED IN
A COMBINATION OF NAM AND GFS MODEL TEMPERATURES FOR FRI...HIGHS
ENDED UP CLOSE TO PREVIOUS AS A RESULT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
L/W TROUGH DOMINATES THE ERN CONUS THIS PERIOD WITH INITIAL SHOT OF
COLD AIR FIRMLY IN PLACE FRI.  THE GFS TAKES MOST OF SAT TO GET THE
MAIN TROUGH AXIS THROUGH WHILE THE ECMWF IS FASTER...BUT BRINGS
ANOTHER S/W TROUGH AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE L/W THROUGH ON SAT.
EITHER WAY...A FEW SHOWERS COULD OCCUR IN THE COLD ADVECTION UPSLOPE
FLOW BENEATH THE COLD AIR ALOFT.

THE AREA DOES REMAIN IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE MUCH OF THE PERIOD AFTER
THAT AS THE SWD EXTENT OF THE L/W DOES RETREAT.  THIS MAKES IT
DIFFICULT TO TIME THE COOLEST WEATHER OTHER THAN THE INITIAL SHOT
SAT...WHICH IS NOW CODED UP AS THE COOLEST PART OF THE FCST.  THIS
INCLUDES POTENTIALLY FROSTY TEMPERATURES FOR THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS
AND IN SE OH COME SUN MORNING.

THE NEXT REINFORCING S/W TROUGH BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES AS TO ITS TIMING
ALONG WITH TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF THE REINFORCING COOL AIR BEHIND IT
SO COULD NOT REALLY DEPICT NEXT COOL DOWN EVEN ON DAY 7 NT.

BLENDED IN GFS...THE COLDER MODEL...FOR TEMPERATURES SAT AND HAVE
HIGHS SAT ON LOW EDGE OF GUIDANCE AND WELL BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 50S
LOWLANDS.  BLENDED IN WPC AND THE LOW MEX FOR LOWS SAT NT...AGAIN ON
LOW END OF GUIDANCE.  WILL NOT HWO FROST DAY 4 NT THOUGH PENDING HOW
FAVORABLE SAT NT TURNS OUT FOR RADIATIVE COOLING.  BLENDED IN WPC
TEMPERATURES FOR THE LESS CERTAIN BALANCE OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT STRATUS TO FORM THIS EVENING AND ROLL IN FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT. BIGGEST QUESTIONS ARE THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE STRATUS
AND WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL GO IFR. LEANED ON THE NAM FOR THESE
ANSWERS AND KEEP CRW IN THE STRATUS...BRINGING IT IN TO BKW AND
EKN LATE...NEAR THE DAWN TIME FRAME.

STRATUS COULD BE STUBBORN TO ERODE/LIFT WEDNESDAY. 18Z IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION FOR THE IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.

GUIDANCE PEGS THE VISIBILITIES...BUT WILL KEEP THE VISIBILITIES AT
6SM OR GREATER WHERE THE STRATUS ANCHORS IN. COAL FIELD AREAS ARE
THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE IFR OR WORSE FOG...BUT SHOULD NOT AFFECT
ANY TERMINALS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT OF STRATUS...AND THE 1000FT THRESHOLD
ARE IN QUESTION. MAY TAKE LONGER FOR STRATUS TO DISSOLVE
WEDNESDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            WED 10/01/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/50
NEAR TERM...50/26
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...26








000
FXUS61 KRLX 302042
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
441 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITS TONIGHT.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY.
MUCH COOLER WEEKEND.  REINFORCING FRONT MAY ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC OBS SHOWING WEAK COLD FRONT/SFC TROUGH-LIKE FEATURE GENERALLY
BISECTING THE STATE OF OHIO FROM NE TO SW...JUST EAST OF CLE-CMH-CVG
AT 18Z. AHEAD OF IT AND OUT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SE GREAT
LAKES IS A LINE OF SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PA STRETCHING SSW-WARD
INTO MORGAN/PERRY COUNTIES IN OHIO. THESE WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY
EASTWARD MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF US HWY 50 THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WILL LIKELY SHOW SOME SIGNS OF DISSIPATION AS THEY PROGRESS.

FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY PUSH
EASTWARD ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA BY 12Z WED. PRECIP CHANCES THIS EVENING
ARE A BIT PROBLEMATIC...WITH NEAR-TERM CONVECTIVE MODELS INSISTING
ON SOME WEAK REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES INTO OUR
AREA THIS EVENING.  SHOULD THIS OCCUR IT WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES...WHILE THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS REMAIN
DRY. AT ANY RATE...ANY PRECIP SHOULD END BY THE 03Z-06Z TIME FRAME
OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES...AND ANYTHING WHICH DOES DEVELOP THIS
EVENING WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THE FRONT/TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
SOUTH OVERNIGHT BUT BEGIN TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE OVERNIGHT...LAYING
UP SOMEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL WV LOWLANDS. BEHIND IT...LOW STRATUS
WILL TAKE HOLD...WHILE EAST AND SOUTH OF IT SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY...ALLOWING A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR FOG
FORMATION.

WEDNESDAY...EARLY MORNING CLOUDS AND FOG WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
WITH AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY LATE MORNING FOR MOST AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST.
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAINLY ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH SOME RIDGETOP CONVERGENCE AND LLVL MOISTURE
POOLED IN THAT AREA.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREV FCST REGARDING TEMPS. OVERNIGHT MINS
GENERALLY MID/UPPER 50S LOWLANDS AND MAX TEMPS MID/UPPER 70S STILL
APPEAR ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET START TO THE PERIOD AS RIDGING RULES SFC AND ALOFT WED NT INTO
THU NT.

MEANWHILE...L/W TROUGH RESIDING OVER THE WRN CONUS OF LATE...SLIDES
E TO THE CENTRAL CONUS BY THU...AND TO THE ERN CONUS FRI-FRI NT.
MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON BEHAVIOR OF INDIVIDUAL S/W TROUGHS
ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LARGER L/W AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH.  THE FIRST S/W IS A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT GETS
DRAWN NEWD ON FRONT SIDE OF L/W...CROSSING FRI.  THIS WILL HAVE THE
BEST AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION EVENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  DEPICTED A MORE
NEGATIVELY TILTED PATTERN IN THE POP GRIDS.

DYNAMICS WITH THIS FEATURE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN BUOYANCY WHICH...WITH STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW...GIVE RISE TO
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...THE ONLY MITIGATING FACTOR BEING THE TIMING
WILL BE A BIT EARLY IN RELATIONSHIP TO DIURNAL HEATING.  WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO AT LEAST SEE A SEE TEXT AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER.
WILL DEFER TO THE MID SHIFT WITH THE NEW SWODY3 FOR AN HWO
INTRODUCTION.

THE FRONT WHIPS THROUGH FRI NT...DRIVEN BY THE MAIN S/W TROUGH AXIS
WHICH DIGS IN AND CLOSES OFF INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SOMEWHERE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES.  THERE REMAINS MODEL DISCREPANCY AS TO HOW FAR S
THE LOW CLOSES OFF...BUT CLEARING...DRYING AND FALLING TEMPERATURES
FOLLOW EITHER WAY.

BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS...A LITTLE LOWER
THAN PREVIOUS.  PREVIOUS FCST LOOKED GOOD FOR HIGHS THU.  BLENDED IN
A COMBINATION OF NAM AND GFS MODEL TEMPERATURES FOR FRI...HIGHS
ENDED UP CLOSE TO PREVIOUS AS A RESULT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
L/W TROUGH DOMINATES THE ERN CONUS THIS PERIOD WITH INITIAL SHOT OF
COLD AIR FIRMLY IN PLACE FRI.  THE GFS TAKES MOST OF SAT TO GET THE
MAIN TROUGH AXIS THROUGH WHILE THE ECMWF IS FASTER...BUT BRINGS
ANOTHER S/W TROUGH AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE L/W THROUGH ON SAT.
EITHER WAY...A FEW SHOWERS COULD OCCUR IN THE COLD ADVECTION UPSLOPE
FLOW BENEATH THE COLD AIR ALOFT.

THE AREA DOES REMAIN IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE MUCH OF THE PERIOD AFTER
THAT AS THE SWD EXTENT OF THE L/W DOES RETREAT.  THIS MAKES IT
DIFFICULT TO TIME THE COOLEST WEATHER OTHER THAN THE INITIAL SHOT
SAT...WHICH IS NOW CODED UP AS THE COOLEST PART OF THE FCST.  THIS
INCLUDES POTENTIALLY FROSTY TEMPERATURES FOR THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS
AND IN SE OH COME SUN MORNING.

THE NEXT REINFORCING S/W TROUGH BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES AS TO ITS TIMING
ALONG WITH TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF THE REINFORCING COOL AIR BEHIND IT
SO COULD NOT REALLY DEPICT NEXT COOL DOWN EVEN ON DAY 7 NT.

BLENDED IN GFS...THE COLDER MODEL...FOR TEMPERATURES SAT AND HAVE
HIGHS SAT ON LOW EDGE OF GUIDANCE AND WELL BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 50S
LOWLANDS.  BLENDED IN WPC AND THE LOW MEX FOR LOWS SAT NT...AGAIN ON
LOW END OF GUIDANCE.  WILL NOT HWO FROST DAY 4 NT THOUGH PENDING HOW
FAVORABLE SAT NT TURNS OUT FOR RADIATIVE COOLING.  BLENDED IN WPC
TEMPERATURES FOR THE LESS CERTAIN BALANCE OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS BEING EXPERIENCED THIS AFTERNOON. A LINE
OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY PUSHING SLOWLY ACROSS SE OHIO INTO THE
PANHANDLE OF WV SHOULD CONTINUE SLOWLY EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NEAR AND NORTH OF US HWY 50. BRIEF MVFR/IFR
VIS IS POSSIBLE UNDERNEATH A HEAVIER SHOWER BUT AGAIN...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE PREVALENT OTHERWISE.

EXPECT LOWER MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TO MOVE SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO
00Z TO 06Z WEDNESDAY...BEHIND THE FRONT CURRENTLY JUST TO THE
NORTHWEST. A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS MAINLY FOR THE
CENTRAL WV LOWLANDS WITH EXACTLY HOW FAR EAST AND SOUTH IT
PROGRESSES...WITH LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG POSSIBLE IN THIS GENERAL
AREA. THINKING MORE DIURNAL FOG WILL FORM ACROSS SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA BY 06Z WEDNESDAY.

EXPECT SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING HOURS BTWN
15Z-18Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY BE MORE THAN FORECAST
IN THE PKB-CKB-EKN VCNTY. ARRIVAL OF LOWER STRATUS CEILING INTO
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND MID OHIO VALLEY AROUND PKB MAY BE FASTER THAN
FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...50






000
FXUS61 KRLX 302042
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
441 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITS TONIGHT.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY.
MUCH COOLER WEEKEND.  REINFORCING FRONT MAY ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC OBS SHOWING WEAK COLD FRONT/SFC TROUGH-LIKE FEATURE GENERALLY
BISECTING THE STATE OF OHIO FROM NE TO SW...JUST EAST OF CLE-CMH-CVG
AT 18Z. AHEAD OF IT AND OUT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SE GREAT
LAKES IS A LINE OF SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PA STRETCHING SSW-WARD
INTO MORGAN/PERRY COUNTIES IN OHIO. THESE WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY
EASTWARD MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF US HWY 50 THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WILL LIKELY SHOW SOME SIGNS OF DISSIPATION AS THEY PROGRESS.

FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY PUSH
EASTWARD ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA BY 12Z WED. PRECIP CHANCES THIS EVENING
ARE A BIT PROBLEMATIC...WITH NEAR-TERM CONVECTIVE MODELS INSISTING
ON SOME WEAK REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES INTO OUR
AREA THIS EVENING.  SHOULD THIS OCCUR IT WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES...WHILE THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS REMAIN
DRY. AT ANY RATE...ANY PRECIP SHOULD END BY THE 03Z-06Z TIME FRAME
OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES...AND ANYTHING WHICH DOES DEVELOP THIS
EVENING WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THE FRONT/TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
SOUTH OVERNIGHT BUT BEGIN TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE OVERNIGHT...LAYING
UP SOMEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL WV LOWLANDS. BEHIND IT...LOW STRATUS
WILL TAKE HOLD...WHILE EAST AND SOUTH OF IT SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY...ALLOWING A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR FOG
FORMATION.

WEDNESDAY...EARLY MORNING CLOUDS AND FOG WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
WITH AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY LATE MORNING FOR MOST AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST.
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAINLY ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH SOME RIDGETOP CONVERGENCE AND LLVL MOISTURE
POOLED IN THAT AREA.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREV FCST REGARDING TEMPS. OVERNIGHT MINS
GENERALLY MID/UPPER 50S LOWLANDS AND MAX TEMPS MID/UPPER 70S STILL
APPEAR ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET START TO THE PERIOD AS RIDGING RULES SFC AND ALOFT WED NT INTO
THU NT.

MEANWHILE...L/W TROUGH RESIDING OVER THE WRN CONUS OF LATE...SLIDES
E TO THE CENTRAL CONUS BY THU...AND TO THE ERN CONUS FRI-FRI NT.
MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON BEHAVIOR OF INDIVIDUAL S/W TROUGHS
ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LARGER L/W AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH.  THE FIRST S/W IS A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT GETS
DRAWN NEWD ON FRONT SIDE OF L/W...CROSSING FRI.  THIS WILL HAVE THE
BEST AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION EVENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  DEPICTED A MORE
NEGATIVELY TILTED PATTERN IN THE POP GRIDS.

DYNAMICS WITH THIS FEATURE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN BUOYANCY WHICH...WITH STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW...GIVE RISE TO
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...THE ONLY MITIGATING FACTOR BEING THE TIMING
WILL BE A BIT EARLY IN RELATIONSHIP TO DIURNAL HEATING.  WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO AT LEAST SEE A SEE TEXT AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER.
WILL DEFER TO THE MID SHIFT WITH THE NEW SWODY3 FOR AN HWO
INTRODUCTION.

THE FRONT WHIPS THROUGH FRI NT...DRIVEN BY THE MAIN S/W TROUGH AXIS
WHICH DIGS IN AND CLOSES OFF INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SOMEWHERE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES.  THERE REMAINS MODEL DISCREPANCY AS TO HOW FAR S
THE LOW CLOSES OFF...BUT CLEARING...DRYING AND FALLING TEMPERATURES
FOLLOW EITHER WAY.

BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS...A LITTLE LOWER
THAN PREVIOUS.  PREVIOUS FCST LOOKED GOOD FOR HIGHS THU.  BLENDED IN
A COMBINATION OF NAM AND GFS MODEL TEMPERATURES FOR FRI...HIGHS
ENDED UP CLOSE TO PREVIOUS AS A RESULT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
L/W TROUGH DOMINATES THE ERN CONUS THIS PERIOD WITH INITIAL SHOT OF
COLD AIR FIRMLY IN PLACE FRI.  THE GFS TAKES MOST OF SAT TO GET THE
MAIN TROUGH AXIS THROUGH WHILE THE ECMWF IS FASTER...BUT BRINGS
ANOTHER S/W TROUGH AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE L/W THROUGH ON SAT.
EITHER WAY...A FEW SHOWERS COULD OCCUR IN THE COLD ADVECTION UPSLOPE
FLOW BENEATH THE COLD AIR ALOFT.

THE AREA DOES REMAIN IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE MUCH OF THE PERIOD AFTER
THAT AS THE SWD EXTENT OF THE L/W DOES RETREAT.  THIS MAKES IT
DIFFICULT TO TIME THE COOLEST WEATHER OTHER THAN THE INITIAL SHOT
SAT...WHICH IS NOW CODED UP AS THE COOLEST PART OF THE FCST.  THIS
INCLUDES POTENTIALLY FROSTY TEMPERATURES FOR THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS
AND IN SE OH COME SUN MORNING.

THE NEXT REINFORCING S/W TROUGH BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES AS TO ITS TIMING
ALONG WITH TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF THE REINFORCING COOL AIR BEHIND IT
SO COULD NOT REALLY DEPICT NEXT COOL DOWN EVEN ON DAY 7 NT.

BLENDED IN GFS...THE COLDER MODEL...FOR TEMPERATURES SAT AND HAVE
HIGHS SAT ON LOW EDGE OF GUIDANCE AND WELL BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 50S
LOWLANDS.  BLENDED IN WPC AND THE LOW MEX FOR LOWS SAT NT...AGAIN ON
LOW END OF GUIDANCE.  WILL NOT HWO FROST DAY 4 NT THOUGH PENDING HOW
FAVORABLE SAT NT TURNS OUT FOR RADIATIVE COOLING.  BLENDED IN WPC
TEMPERATURES FOR THE LESS CERTAIN BALANCE OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS BEING EXPERIENCED THIS AFTERNOON. A LINE
OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY PUSHING SLOWLY ACROSS SE OHIO INTO THE
PANHANDLE OF WV SHOULD CONTINUE SLOWLY EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NEAR AND NORTH OF US HWY 50. BRIEF MVFR/IFR
VIS IS POSSIBLE UNDERNEATH A HEAVIER SHOWER BUT AGAIN...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE PREVALENT OTHERWISE.

EXPECT LOWER MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TO MOVE SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO
00Z TO 06Z WEDNESDAY...BEHIND THE FRONT CURRENTLY JUST TO THE
NORTHWEST. A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS MAINLY FOR THE
CENTRAL WV LOWLANDS WITH EXACTLY HOW FAR EAST AND SOUTH IT
PROGRESSES...WITH LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG POSSIBLE IN THIS GENERAL
AREA. THINKING MORE DIURNAL FOG WILL FORM ACROSS SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA BY 06Z WEDNESDAY.

EXPECT SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING HOURS BTWN
15Z-18Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY BE MORE THAN FORECAST
IN THE PKB-CKB-EKN VCNTY. ARRIVAL OF LOWER STRATUS CEILING INTO
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND MID OHIO VALLEY AROUND PKB MAY BE FASTER THAN
FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...50







000
FXUS61 KRLX 301805
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
205 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS SOUTHEAST...BRUSHES AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE/LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY  STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY. MUCH COOLER WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
130 PM UPDATE...
SHOWERS CURRENTLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FAR NW ZONES AT
THIS TIME. THESE ARE PART OF THE LARGER LINE OF SHRA TO THE NORTH
ACROSS WESTERN PA AND NW OHIO. WHILE THAT PORTION OF THE LINE IS
MOVING EAST QUICKER...THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LINE AFFECTING OUR
AREA IS SLOWER AS TO BE EXPECTED. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE. MAY
BE MORE REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS SE OHIO LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

1030 AM UPDATE...
FIRST LINE OF CONVECTION WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY NEARING PERRY COUNTY AT THIS TIME. RAMPED
UP POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THOSE LOCATIONS NEAR OUR
NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA BORDER FROM PERRY COUNTY OVER TOWARDS
MORGAN AND WASH COUNTIES IN OHIO FOR THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS AS IT
QUICKLY MOVES EAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PATCHES OF CLOUDS STILL OVER THE MOUNTAINS AT 07Z...OTHERWISE
VALLEY FOG PREVAILS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS MID/UPPER TROF
OVER LAKE HURON AND MICHIGAN DROPPING SOUTHEAST. ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT/WIND SHIFT WAS APPROACHING TOL AND STILL NORTH OF IND.

AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...THE MAIN COOLING ALOFT TODAY WILL BE NORTH
OF OUR CWA.  FOR EXAMPLE...00Z NAM HAS 500 MB TEMP AT PBZ COOLING
ABOUT 5C TODAY...WHILE CKB ONLY ABOUT A DEG C.  SO TIMING THE
POPS...AND HOW FAR SOUTH TO MENTION PCPN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT IS ONE CHALLENGE.  AFTER DIGESTING THE MODELS...SEE NO
REASON TO CHANGE THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS
HTS-CRW VCNTY FOR THIS EVENING.  THIS IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN
MOST 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS.  FURTHER NNE...HAVE POPS MAXING OUT AROUND
40 TO 50 PCT FOR N CNTRL WV FROM 21Z TODAY TO 01Z WEDNESDAY.

DRY AIR SOUTH OF THAT DISTURBANCE FOR TODAY. RAP SOLUTION TRIES TO
EVEN LOWER DEW POINTS INTO THE 40S.  MAYBE ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN LIKE
BKW...BUT DID NOT GO THAT LOW IN THE WESTERN LOWLANDS.

MAIN PUSH BEHIND FRONT IS INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO...BEFORE 925 MB WINDS
QUICKLY VEER TO EAST OR DIMINISH TO CALM.  THINKING LOW STRATUS WILL
FORM TONIGHT IN SE OHIO BEHIND FRONT.  FURTHER SOUTH IN THE COAL
FIELDS OF WV...WAS THINKING JUST THE USUAL DIURNAL LATE NIGHT FOG.
FURTHER NORTH...LINGERING CLOUDS MAY HINDER OR DELAY THE FOG
FORMATION AROUND CKB AND EKN.  HTS-CRW CORRIDOR IS A TOUGH CALL
BETWEEN ALL 3 FOR LATE TONIGHT...PATCHES OF CLOUDS LINGERING
OVERNIGHT...STRATUS FORMATION...OR SURFACE BASED FOG FORMING.
OVERALL KEPT MINIMUM TEMPERATURE ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GFS MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE HEADING EAST OUT TO SEA TO START THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...ANTICIPATE LOTS OF LOW
STRATUS WEDNESDAY MORNING...GRADUALLY BREAKING UP THROUGH THE DAY.
ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE DO NOT EXPECT THESE
CLOUDS. WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUDS...ALSO LOWERED HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
SEVERAL DEGREES IN SE OHIO. BLENDED BIAS CORRECTED MET INTO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. HAVE A LITTLE TRAILING VORT MAX COMING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT DRY ELSEWHERE. WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PASSES THURSDAY WITH A
WARMER...SUNNY DAY. AGAIN BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MET. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. FOR LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS...BLENDED IN BIAS
CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
L/W TROUGH SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA THIS PERIOD.  RAIN IS MOST
LIKELY FRI AS LEAD SRN STREAM S/W TROUGH CROSSES JUST OUT AHEAD OF
SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH IS DRIVEN BY MID STREAM S/W PIVOTING THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FRI...DRIVING THE SFC COLD
FRONT THROUGH LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

STRONG FLOW...FORCING...LAST MINUTE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND LATE DAY TIMING SHOULD SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER...ALTHOUGH
A MITIGATING FACTOR IS THE LEAD SRN STREAM S/W...WHICH BRINGS CLOUDS
AND RAIN ACROSS EARLIER IN THE DAY.

A HIGH OF MAINLY PACIFIC ORIGIN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT
INITIALLY...BRINGING ABOUT A FAIR...COOL WEEKEND.  A REINFORCING
UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AND SFC FRONT CROSS MON...WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...AND THEN EVEN COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BLENDED IN GFS BASED GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS FRI AND THEN MAINLY WPC FOR
LOWS AND HIGHS BEYOND THAT...MOST CHANGES TO LOWER VALUES BUT NOT BY
MUCH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS BEING EXPERIENCED THIS AFTERNOON. A LINE
OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY PUSHING SLOWLY ACROSS SE OHIO INTO THE
PANHANDLE OF WV SHOULD CONTINUE SLOWLY EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NEAR AND NORTH OF US HWY 50. BRIEF MVFR/IFR
VIS IS POSSIBLE UNDERNEATH A HEAVIER SHOWER BUT AGAIN...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE PREVALENT OTHERWISE.

EXPECT LOWER MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TO MOVE SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO
00Z TO 06Z WEDNESDAY...BEHIND THE FRONT CURRENTLY JUST TO THE
NORTHWEST. A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS MAINLY FOR THE
CENTRAL WV LOWLANDS WITH EXACTLY HOW FAR EAST AND SOUTH IT
PROGRESSES...WITH LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG POSSIBLE IN THIS GENERAL
AREA. THINKING MORE DIURNAL FOG WILL FORM ACROSS SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA BY 06Z WEDNESDAY.

EXPECT SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING HOURS BTWN
15Z-18Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY BE MORE THAN FORECAST
IN THE PKB-CKB-EKN VCNTY. ARRIVAL OF LOWER STRATUS CEILING INTO
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND MID OHIO VALLEY AROUND PKB MAY BE FASTER THAN
FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/50
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...50









000
FXUS61 KRLX 301805
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
205 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS SOUTHEAST...BRUSHES AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE/LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY  STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY. MUCH COOLER WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
130 PM UPDATE...
SHOWERS CURRENTLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FAR NW ZONES AT
THIS TIME. THESE ARE PART OF THE LARGER LINE OF SHRA TO THE NORTH
ACROSS WESTERN PA AND NW OHIO. WHILE THAT PORTION OF THE LINE IS
MOVING EAST QUICKER...THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LINE AFFECTING OUR
AREA IS SLOWER AS TO BE EXPECTED. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE. MAY
BE MORE REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS SE OHIO LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

1030 AM UPDATE...
FIRST LINE OF CONVECTION WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY NEARING PERRY COUNTY AT THIS TIME. RAMPED
UP POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THOSE LOCATIONS NEAR OUR
NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA BORDER FROM PERRY COUNTY OVER TOWARDS
MORGAN AND WASH COUNTIES IN OHIO FOR THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS AS IT
QUICKLY MOVES EAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PATCHES OF CLOUDS STILL OVER THE MOUNTAINS AT 07Z...OTHERWISE
VALLEY FOG PREVAILS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS MID/UPPER TROF
OVER LAKE HURON AND MICHIGAN DROPPING SOUTHEAST. ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT/WIND SHIFT WAS APPROACHING TOL AND STILL NORTH OF IND.

AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...THE MAIN COOLING ALOFT TODAY WILL BE NORTH
OF OUR CWA.  FOR EXAMPLE...00Z NAM HAS 500 MB TEMP AT PBZ COOLING
ABOUT 5C TODAY...WHILE CKB ONLY ABOUT A DEG C.  SO TIMING THE
POPS...AND HOW FAR SOUTH TO MENTION PCPN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT IS ONE CHALLENGE.  AFTER DIGESTING THE MODELS...SEE NO
REASON TO CHANGE THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS
HTS-CRW VCNTY FOR THIS EVENING.  THIS IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN
MOST 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS.  FURTHER NNE...HAVE POPS MAXING OUT AROUND
40 TO 50 PCT FOR N CNTRL WV FROM 21Z TODAY TO 01Z WEDNESDAY.

DRY AIR SOUTH OF THAT DISTURBANCE FOR TODAY. RAP SOLUTION TRIES TO
EVEN LOWER DEW POINTS INTO THE 40S.  MAYBE ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN LIKE
BKW...BUT DID NOT GO THAT LOW IN THE WESTERN LOWLANDS.

MAIN PUSH BEHIND FRONT IS INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO...BEFORE 925 MB WINDS
QUICKLY VEER TO EAST OR DIMINISH TO CALM.  THINKING LOW STRATUS WILL
FORM TONIGHT IN SE OHIO BEHIND FRONT.  FURTHER SOUTH IN THE COAL
FIELDS OF WV...WAS THINKING JUST THE USUAL DIURNAL LATE NIGHT FOG.
FURTHER NORTH...LINGERING CLOUDS MAY HINDER OR DELAY THE FOG
FORMATION AROUND CKB AND EKN.  HTS-CRW CORRIDOR IS A TOUGH CALL
BETWEEN ALL 3 FOR LATE TONIGHT...PATCHES OF CLOUDS LINGERING
OVERNIGHT...STRATUS FORMATION...OR SURFACE BASED FOG FORMING.
OVERALL KEPT MINIMUM TEMPERATURE ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GFS MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE HEADING EAST OUT TO SEA TO START THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...ANTICIPATE LOTS OF LOW
STRATUS WEDNESDAY MORNING...GRADUALLY BREAKING UP THROUGH THE DAY.
ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE DO NOT EXPECT THESE
CLOUDS. WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUDS...ALSO LOWERED HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
SEVERAL DEGREES IN SE OHIO. BLENDED BIAS CORRECTED MET INTO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. HAVE A LITTLE TRAILING VORT MAX COMING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT DRY ELSEWHERE. WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PASSES THURSDAY WITH A
WARMER...SUNNY DAY. AGAIN BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MET. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. FOR LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS...BLENDED IN BIAS
CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
L/W TROUGH SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA THIS PERIOD.  RAIN IS MOST
LIKELY FRI AS LEAD SRN STREAM S/W TROUGH CROSSES JUST OUT AHEAD OF
SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH IS DRIVEN BY MID STREAM S/W PIVOTING THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FRI...DRIVING THE SFC COLD
FRONT THROUGH LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

STRONG FLOW...FORCING...LAST MINUTE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND LATE DAY TIMING SHOULD SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER...ALTHOUGH
A MITIGATING FACTOR IS THE LEAD SRN STREAM S/W...WHICH BRINGS CLOUDS
AND RAIN ACROSS EARLIER IN THE DAY.

A HIGH OF MAINLY PACIFIC ORIGIN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT
INITIALLY...BRINGING ABOUT A FAIR...COOL WEEKEND.  A REINFORCING
UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AND SFC FRONT CROSS MON...WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...AND THEN EVEN COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BLENDED IN GFS BASED GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS FRI AND THEN MAINLY WPC FOR
LOWS AND HIGHS BEYOND THAT...MOST CHANGES TO LOWER VALUES BUT NOT BY
MUCH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS BEING EXPERIENCED THIS AFTERNOON. A LINE
OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY PUSHING SLOWLY ACROSS SE OHIO INTO THE
PANHANDLE OF WV SHOULD CONTINUE SLOWLY EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NEAR AND NORTH OF US HWY 50. BRIEF MVFR/IFR
VIS IS POSSIBLE UNDERNEATH A HEAVIER SHOWER BUT AGAIN...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE PREVALENT OTHERWISE.

EXPECT LOWER MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TO MOVE SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO
00Z TO 06Z WEDNESDAY...BEHIND THE FRONT CURRENTLY JUST TO THE
NORTHWEST. A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS MAINLY FOR THE
CENTRAL WV LOWLANDS WITH EXACTLY HOW FAR EAST AND SOUTH IT
PROGRESSES...WITH LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG POSSIBLE IN THIS GENERAL
AREA. THINKING MORE DIURNAL FOG WILL FORM ACROSS SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA BY 06Z WEDNESDAY.

EXPECT SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING HOURS BTWN
15Z-18Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY BE MORE THAN FORECAST
IN THE PKB-CKB-EKN VCNTY. ARRIVAL OF LOWER STRATUS CEILING INTO
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND MID OHIO VALLEY AROUND PKB MAY BE FASTER THAN
FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/50
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...50








000
FXUS61 KRLX 301450
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1050 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS SOUTHEAST...BRUSHES AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE/LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY  STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY. MUCH COOLER WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...
FIRST LINE OF CONVECTION WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY NEARING PERRY COUNTY AT THIS TIME. RAMPED
UP POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THOSE LOCATIONS NEAR OUR
NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA BORDER FROM PERRY COUNTY OVER TOWARDS
MORGAN AND WASH COUNTIES IN OHIO FOR THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS AS IT
QUICKLY MOVES EAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PATCHES OF CLOUDS STILL OVER THE MOUNTAINS AT 07Z...OTHERWISE
VALLEY FOG PREVAILS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS MID/UPPER TROF
OVER LAKE HURON AND MICHIGAN DROPPING SOUTHEAST. ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT/WIND SHIFT WAS APPROACHING TOL AND STILL NORTH OF IND.

AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...THE MAIN COOLING ALOFT TODAY WILL BE NORTH
OF OUR CWA.  FOR EXAMPLE...00Z NAM HAS 500 MB TEMP AT PBZ COOLING
ABOUT 5C TODAY...WHILE CKB ONLY ABOUT A DEG C.  SO TIMING THE
POPS...AND HOW FAR SOUTH TO MENTION PCPN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT IS ONE CHALLENGE.  AFTER DIGESTING THE MODELS...SEE NO
REASON TO CHANGE THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS
HTS-CRW VCNTY FOR THIS EVENING.  THIS IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN
MOST 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS.  FURTHER NNE...HAVE POPS MAXING OUT AROUND
40 TO 50 PCT FOR N CNTRL WV FROM 21Z TODAY TO 01Z WEDNESDAY.

DRY AIR SOUTH OF THAT DISTURBANCE FOR TODAY. RAP SOLUTION TRIES TO
EVEN LOWER DEW POINTS INTO THE 40S.  MAYBE ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN LIKE
BKW...BUT DID NOT GO THAT LOW IN THE WESTERN LOWLANDS.

MAIN PUSH BEHIND FRONT IS INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO...BEFORE 925 MB WINDS
QUICKLY VEER TO EAST OR DIMINISH TO CALM.  THINKING LOW STRATUS WILL
FORM TONIGHT IN SE OHIO BEHIND FRONT.  FURTHER SOUTH IN THE COAL
FIELDS OF WV...WAS THINKING JUST THE USUAL DIURNAL LATE NIGHT FOG.
FURTHER NORTH...LINGERING CLOUDS MAY HINDER OR DELAY THE FOG
FORMATION AROUND CKB AND EKN.  HTS-CRW CORRIDOR IS A TOUGH CALL
BETWEEN ALL 3 FOR LATE TONIGHT...PATCHES OF CLOUDS LINGERING
OVERNIGHT...STRATUS FORMATION...OR SURFACE BASED FOG FORMING.
OVERALL KEPT MINIMUM TEMPERATURE ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GFS MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE HEADING EAST OUT TO SEA TO START THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...ANTICIPATE LOTS OF LOW
STRATUS WEDNESDAY MORNING...GRADUALLY BREAKING UP THROUGH THE DAY.
ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE DO NOT EXPECT THESE
CLOUDS. WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUDS...ALSO LOWERED HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
SEVERAL DEGREES IN SE OHIO. BLENDED BIAS CORRECTED MET INTO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. HAVE A LITTLE TRAILING VORT MAX COMING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT DRY ELSEWHERE. WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PASSES THURSDAY WITH A
WARMER...SUNNY DAY. AGAIN BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MET. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. FOR LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS...BLENDED IN BIAS
CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
L/W TROUGH SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA THIS PERIOD.  RAIN IS MOST
LIKELY FRI AS LEAD SRN STREAM S/W TROUGH CROSSES JUST OUT AHEAD OF
SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH IS DRIVEN BY MID STREAM S/W PIVOTING THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FRI...DRIVING THE SFC COLD
FRONT THROUGH LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

STRONG FLOW...FORCING...LAST MINUTE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND LATE DAY TIMING SHOULD SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER...ALTHOUGH
A MITIGATING FACTOR IS THE LEAD SRN STREAM S/W...WHICH BRINGS CLOUDS
AND RAIN ACROSS EARLIER IN THE DAY.

A HIGH OF MAINLY PACIFIC ORIGIN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT
INITIALLY...BRINGING ABOUT A FAIR...COOL WEEKEND.  A REINFORCING
UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AND SFC FRONT CROSS MON...WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...AND THEN EVEN COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BLENDED IN GFS BASED GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS FRI AND THEN MAINLY WPC FOR
LOWS AND HIGHS BEYOND THAT...MOST CHANGES TO LOWER VALUES BUT NOT BY
MUCH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECTING THE RIVER VALLEY FOG TO BE THE SLOWEST TO EVAPORATE E
AND S OF CRW IN THE SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA COAL FIELDS...BUT
SHOULD BE GONE BY 14Z.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT 3 TO 5 THSD FT FORMING 14Z TO 17Z OVER
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...PLUS THE CENTRAL WV
MOUNTAINS.  HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS REACHING INTO UNI-PKB-CKB-KEN
CORRIDOR 18Z TO 21Z...THEN LINGERING IN NORTHERN/CENTRAL WV 00Z TO
06Z.  COULD NOT RULE OUT A MINIMAL THUNDERSTORM.  AN ISOLATED CELL
COULD REACH HTS-CRW CORRIDOR 22Z TUESDAY TO 03Z WEDNESDAY.

EXPECT LOWER CEILINGS TO BE MOVING SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO 00Z TO
06Z WEDNESDAY...WITH 1 THSD FT BKN TO OVC POSSIBLE AND VSBY NEAR
5 MILES IN HAZE.  HOW FAR EAST AND SOUTH THAT ADVECTS IS DIFFICULT
TO FIGURE...WITH 925 MB FLOW QUICKLY TURNING TO EAST BEFORE 06Z
WEDNESDAY.  CRW A TOUGH CALL BETWEEN STRATUS AND SURFACE BASED FOG
FORMING 06Z TO 12Z WEDNESDAY.  THINKING MORE DIURNAL FOG WILL FORM
ACROSS SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA BY 06Z WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY BE MORE THAN FORECAST
IN THE PKB-CKB-EKN VCNTY. ARRIVAL OF LOWER STRATUS CEILING INTO
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND MID OHIO VALLEY AROUND PKB MAY BE FASTER THAN
FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/50
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...KTB









000
FXUS61 KRLX 301450
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1050 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS SOUTHEAST...BRUSHES AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE/LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY  STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY. MUCH COOLER WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...
FIRST LINE OF CONVECTION WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY NEARING PERRY COUNTY AT THIS TIME. RAMPED
UP POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THOSE LOCATIONS NEAR OUR
NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA BORDER FROM PERRY COUNTY OVER TOWARDS
MORGAN AND WASH COUNTIES IN OHIO FOR THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS AS IT
QUICKLY MOVES EAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PATCHES OF CLOUDS STILL OVER THE MOUNTAINS AT 07Z...OTHERWISE
VALLEY FOG PREVAILS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS MID/UPPER TROF
OVER LAKE HURON AND MICHIGAN DROPPING SOUTHEAST. ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT/WIND SHIFT WAS APPROACHING TOL AND STILL NORTH OF IND.

AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...THE MAIN COOLING ALOFT TODAY WILL BE NORTH
OF OUR CWA.  FOR EXAMPLE...00Z NAM HAS 500 MB TEMP AT PBZ COOLING
ABOUT 5C TODAY...WHILE CKB ONLY ABOUT A DEG C.  SO TIMING THE
POPS...AND HOW FAR SOUTH TO MENTION PCPN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT IS ONE CHALLENGE.  AFTER DIGESTING THE MODELS...SEE NO
REASON TO CHANGE THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS
HTS-CRW VCNTY FOR THIS EVENING.  THIS IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN
MOST 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS.  FURTHER NNE...HAVE POPS MAXING OUT AROUND
40 TO 50 PCT FOR N CNTRL WV FROM 21Z TODAY TO 01Z WEDNESDAY.

DRY AIR SOUTH OF THAT DISTURBANCE FOR TODAY. RAP SOLUTION TRIES TO
EVEN LOWER DEW POINTS INTO THE 40S.  MAYBE ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN LIKE
BKW...BUT DID NOT GO THAT LOW IN THE WESTERN LOWLANDS.

MAIN PUSH BEHIND FRONT IS INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO...BEFORE 925 MB WINDS
QUICKLY VEER TO EAST OR DIMINISH TO CALM.  THINKING LOW STRATUS WILL
FORM TONIGHT IN SE OHIO BEHIND FRONT.  FURTHER SOUTH IN THE COAL
FIELDS OF WV...WAS THINKING JUST THE USUAL DIURNAL LATE NIGHT FOG.
FURTHER NORTH...LINGERING CLOUDS MAY HINDER OR DELAY THE FOG
FORMATION AROUND CKB AND EKN.  HTS-CRW CORRIDOR IS A TOUGH CALL
BETWEEN ALL 3 FOR LATE TONIGHT...PATCHES OF CLOUDS LINGERING
OVERNIGHT...STRATUS FORMATION...OR SURFACE BASED FOG FORMING.
OVERALL KEPT MINIMUM TEMPERATURE ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GFS MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE HEADING EAST OUT TO SEA TO START THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...ANTICIPATE LOTS OF LOW
STRATUS WEDNESDAY MORNING...GRADUALLY BREAKING UP THROUGH THE DAY.
ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE DO NOT EXPECT THESE
CLOUDS. WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUDS...ALSO LOWERED HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
SEVERAL DEGREES IN SE OHIO. BLENDED BIAS CORRECTED MET INTO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. HAVE A LITTLE TRAILING VORT MAX COMING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT DRY ELSEWHERE. WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PASSES THURSDAY WITH A
WARMER...SUNNY DAY. AGAIN BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MET. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. FOR LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS...BLENDED IN BIAS
CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
L/W TROUGH SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA THIS PERIOD.  RAIN IS MOST
LIKELY FRI AS LEAD SRN STREAM S/W TROUGH CROSSES JUST OUT AHEAD OF
SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH IS DRIVEN BY MID STREAM S/W PIVOTING THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FRI...DRIVING THE SFC COLD
FRONT THROUGH LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

STRONG FLOW...FORCING...LAST MINUTE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND LATE DAY TIMING SHOULD SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER...ALTHOUGH
A MITIGATING FACTOR IS THE LEAD SRN STREAM S/W...WHICH BRINGS CLOUDS
AND RAIN ACROSS EARLIER IN THE DAY.

A HIGH OF MAINLY PACIFIC ORIGIN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT
INITIALLY...BRINGING ABOUT A FAIR...COOL WEEKEND.  A REINFORCING
UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AND SFC FRONT CROSS MON...WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...AND THEN EVEN COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BLENDED IN GFS BASED GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS FRI AND THEN MAINLY WPC FOR
LOWS AND HIGHS BEYOND THAT...MOST CHANGES TO LOWER VALUES BUT NOT BY
MUCH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECTING THE RIVER VALLEY FOG TO BE THE SLOWEST TO EVAPORATE E
AND S OF CRW IN THE SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA COAL FIELDS...BUT
SHOULD BE GONE BY 14Z.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT 3 TO 5 THSD FT FORMING 14Z TO 17Z OVER
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...PLUS THE CENTRAL WV
MOUNTAINS.  HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS REACHING INTO UNI-PKB-CKB-KEN
CORRIDOR 18Z TO 21Z...THEN LINGERING IN NORTHERN/CENTRAL WV 00Z TO
06Z.  COULD NOT RULE OUT A MINIMAL THUNDERSTORM.  AN ISOLATED CELL
COULD REACH HTS-CRW CORRIDOR 22Z TUESDAY TO 03Z WEDNESDAY.

EXPECT LOWER CEILINGS TO BE MOVING SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO 00Z TO
06Z WEDNESDAY...WITH 1 THSD FT BKN TO OVC POSSIBLE AND VSBY NEAR
5 MILES IN HAZE.  HOW FAR EAST AND SOUTH THAT ADVECTS IS DIFFICULT
TO FIGURE...WITH 925 MB FLOW QUICKLY TURNING TO EAST BEFORE 06Z
WEDNESDAY.  CRW A TOUGH CALL BETWEEN STRATUS AND SURFACE BASED FOG
FORMING 06Z TO 12Z WEDNESDAY.  THINKING MORE DIURNAL FOG WILL FORM
ACROSS SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA BY 06Z WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY BE MORE THAN FORECAST
IN THE PKB-CKB-EKN VCNTY. ARRIVAL OF LOWER STRATUS CEILING INTO
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND MID OHIO VALLEY AROUND PKB MAY BE FASTER THAN
FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/50
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...KTB









000
FXUS61 KRLX 301450
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1050 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS SOUTHEAST...BRUSHES AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE/LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY  STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY. MUCH COOLER WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...
FIRST LINE OF CONVECTION WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY NEARING PERRY COUNTY AT THIS TIME. RAMPED
UP POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THOSE LOCATIONS NEAR OUR
NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA BORDER FROM PERRY COUNTY OVER TOWARDS
MORGAN AND WASH COUNTIES IN OHIO FOR THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS AS IT
QUICKLY MOVES EAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PATCHES OF CLOUDS STILL OVER THE MOUNTAINS AT 07Z...OTHERWISE
VALLEY FOG PREVAILS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS MID/UPPER TROF
OVER LAKE HURON AND MICHIGAN DROPPING SOUTHEAST. ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT/WIND SHIFT WAS APPROACHING TOL AND STILL NORTH OF IND.

AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...THE MAIN COOLING ALOFT TODAY WILL BE NORTH
OF OUR CWA.  FOR EXAMPLE...00Z NAM HAS 500 MB TEMP AT PBZ COOLING
ABOUT 5C TODAY...WHILE CKB ONLY ABOUT A DEG C.  SO TIMING THE
POPS...AND HOW FAR SOUTH TO MENTION PCPN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT IS ONE CHALLENGE.  AFTER DIGESTING THE MODELS...SEE NO
REASON TO CHANGE THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS
HTS-CRW VCNTY FOR THIS EVENING.  THIS IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN
MOST 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS.  FURTHER NNE...HAVE POPS MAXING OUT AROUND
40 TO 50 PCT FOR N CNTRL WV FROM 21Z TODAY TO 01Z WEDNESDAY.

DRY AIR SOUTH OF THAT DISTURBANCE FOR TODAY. RAP SOLUTION TRIES TO
EVEN LOWER DEW POINTS INTO THE 40S.  MAYBE ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN LIKE
BKW...BUT DID NOT GO THAT LOW IN THE WESTERN LOWLANDS.

MAIN PUSH BEHIND FRONT IS INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO...BEFORE 925 MB WINDS
QUICKLY VEER TO EAST OR DIMINISH TO CALM.  THINKING LOW STRATUS WILL
FORM TONIGHT IN SE OHIO BEHIND FRONT.  FURTHER SOUTH IN THE COAL
FIELDS OF WV...WAS THINKING JUST THE USUAL DIURNAL LATE NIGHT FOG.
FURTHER NORTH...LINGERING CLOUDS MAY HINDER OR DELAY THE FOG
FORMATION AROUND CKB AND EKN.  HTS-CRW CORRIDOR IS A TOUGH CALL
BETWEEN ALL 3 FOR LATE TONIGHT...PATCHES OF CLOUDS LINGERING
OVERNIGHT...STRATUS FORMATION...OR SURFACE BASED FOG FORMING.
OVERALL KEPT MINIMUM TEMPERATURE ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GFS MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE HEADING EAST OUT TO SEA TO START THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...ANTICIPATE LOTS OF LOW
STRATUS WEDNESDAY MORNING...GRADUALLY BREAKING UP THROUGH THE DAY.
ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE DO NOT EXPECT THESE
CLOUDS. WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUDS...ALSO LOWERED HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
SEVERAL DEGREES IN SE OHIO. BLENDED BIAS CORRECTED MET INTO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. HAVE A LITTLE TRAILING VORT MAX COMING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT DRY ELSEWHERE. WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PASSES THURSDAY WITH A
WARMER...SUNNY DAY. AGAIN BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MET. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. FOR LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS...BLENDED IN BIAS
CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
L/W TROUGH SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA THIS PERIOD.  RAIN IS MOST
LIKELY FRI AS LEAD SRN STREAM S/W TROUGH CROSSES JUST OUT AHEAD OF
SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH IS DRIVEN BY MID STREAM S/W PIVOTING THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FRI...DRIVING THE SFC COLD
FRONT THROUGH LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

STRONG FLOW...FORCING...LAST MINUTE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND LATE DAY TIMING SHOULD SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER...ALTHOUGH
A MITIGATING FACTOR IS THE LEAD SRN STREAM S/W...WHICH BRINGS CLOUDS
AND RAIN ACROSS EARLIER IN THE DAY.

A HIGH OF MAINLY PACIFIC ORIGIN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT
INITIALLY...BRINGING ABOUT A FAIR...COOL WEEKEND.  A REINFORCING
UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AND SFC FRONT CROSS MON...WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...AND THEN EVEN COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BLENDED IN GFS BASED GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS FRI AND THEN MAINLY WPC FOR
LOWS AND HIGHS BEYOND THAT...MOST CHANGES TO LOWER VALUES BUT NOT BY
MUCH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECTING THE RIVER VALLEY FOG TO BE THE SLOWEST TO EVAPORATE E
AND S OF CRW IN THE SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA COAL FIELDS...BUT
SHOULD BE GONE BY 14Z.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT 3 TO 5 THSD FT FORMING 14Z TO 17Z OVER
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...PLUS THE CENTRAL WV
MOUNTAINS.  HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS REACHING INTO UNI-PKB-CKB-KEN
CORRIDOR 18Z TO 21Z...THEN LINGERING IN NORTHERN/CENTRAL WV 00Z TO
06Z.  COULD NOT RULE OUT A MINIMAL THUNDERSTORM.  AN ISOLATED CELL
COULD REACH HTS-CRW CORRIDOR 22Z TUESDAY TO 03Z WEDNESDAY.

EXPECT LOWER CEILINGS TO BE MOVING SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO 00Z TO
06Z WEDNESDAY...WITH 1 THSD FT BKN TO OVC POSSIBLE AND VSBY NEAR
5 MILES IN HAZE.  HOW FAR EAST AND SOUTH THAT ADVECTS IS DIFFICULT
TO FIGURE...WITH 925 MB FLOW QUICKLY TURNING TO EAST BEFORE 06Z
WEDNESDAY.  CRW A TOUGH CALL BETWEEN STRATUS AND SURFACE BASED FOG
FORMING 06Z TO 12Z WEDNESDAY.  THINKING MORE DIURNAL FOG WILL FORM
ACROSS SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA BY 06Z WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY BE MORE THAN FORECAST
IN THE PKB-CKB-EKN VCNTY. ARRIVAL OF LOWER STRATUS CEILING INTO
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND MID OHIO VALLEY AROUND PKB MAY BE FASTER THAN
FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/50
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...KTB









000
FXUS61 KRLX 301450
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1050 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS SOUTHEAST...BRUSHES AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE/LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY  STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY. MUCH COOLER WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...
FIRST LINE OF CONVECTION WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY NEARING PERRY COUNTY AT THIS TIME. RAMPED
UP POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THOSE LOCATIONS NEAR OUR
NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA BORDER FROM PERRY COUNTY OVER TOWARDS
MORGAN AND WASH COUNTIES IN OHIO FOR THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS AS IT
QUICKLY MOVES EAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PATCHES OF CLOUDS STILL OVER THE MOUNTAINS AT 07Z...OTHERWISE
VALLEY FOG PREVAILS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS MID/UPPER TROF
OVER LAKE HURON AND MICHIGAN DROPPING SOUTHEAST. ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT/WIND SHIFT WAS APPROACHING TOL AND STILL NORTH OF IND.

AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...THE MAIN COOLING ALOFT TODAY WILL BE NORTH
OF OUR CWA.  FOR EXAMPLE...00Z NAM HAS 500 MB TEMP AT PBZ COOLING
ABOUT 5C TODAY...WHILE CKB ONLY ABOUT A DEG C.  SO TIMING THE
POPS...AND HOW FAR SOUTH TO MENTION PCPN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT IS ONE CHALLENGE.  AFTER DIGESTING THE MODELS...SEE NO
REASON TO CHANGE THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS
HTS-CRW VCNTY FOR THIS EVENING.  THIS IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN
MOST 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS.  FURTHER NNE...HAVE POPS MAXING OUT AROUND
40 TO 50 PCT FOR N CNTRL WV FROM 21Z TODAY TO 01Z WEDNESDAY.

DRY AIR SOUTH OF THAT DISTURBANCE FOR TODAY. RAP SOLUTION TRIES TO
EVEN LOWER DEW POINTS INTO THE 40S.  MAYBE ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN LIKE
BKW...BUT DID NOT GO THAT LOW IN THE WESTERN LOWLANDS.

MAIN PUSH BEHIND FRONT IS INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO...BEFORE 925 MB WINDS
QUICKLY VEER TO EAST OR DIMINISH TO CALM.  THINKING LOW STRATUS WILL
FORM TONIGHT IN SE OHIO BEHIND FRONT.  FURTHER SOUTH IN THE COAL
FIELDS OF WV...WAS THINKING JUST THE USUAL DIURNAL LATE NIGHT FOG.
FURTHER NORTH...LINGERING CLOUDS MAY HINDER OR DELAY THE FOG
FORMATION AROUND CKB AND EKN.  HTS-CRW CORRIDOR IS A TOUGH CALL
BETWEEN ALL 3 FOR LATE TONIGHT...PATCHES OF CLOUDS LINGERING
OVERNIGHT...STRATUS FORMATION...OR SURFACE BASED FOG FORMING.
OVERALL KEPT MINIMUM TEMPERATURE ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GFS MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE HEADING EAST OUT TO SEA TO START THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...ANTICIPATE LOTS OF LOW
STRATUS WEDNESDAY MORNING...GRADUALLY BREAKING UP THROUGH THE DAY.
ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE DO NOT EXPECT THESE
CLOUDS. WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUDS...ALSO LOWERED HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
SEVERAL DEGREES IN SE OHIO. BLENDED BIAS CORRECTED MET INTO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. HAVE A LITTLE TRAILING VORT MAX COMING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT DRY ELSEWHERE. WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PASSES THURSDAY WITH A
WARMER...SUNNY DAY. AGAIN BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MET. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. FOR LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS...BLENDED IN BIAS
CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
L/W TROUGH SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA THIS PERIOD.  RAIN IS MOST
LIKELY FRI AS LEAD SRN STREAM S/W TROUGH CROSSES JUST OUT AHEAD OF
SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH IS DRIVEN BY MID STREAM S/W PIVOTING THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FRI...DRIVING THE SFC COLD
FRONT THROUGH LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

STRONG FLOW...FORCING...LAST MINUTE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND LATE DAY TIMING SHOULD SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER...ALTHOUGH
A MITIGATING FACTOR IS THE LEAD SRN STREAM S/W...WHICH BRINGS CLOUDS
AND RAIN ACROSS EARLIER IN THE DAY.

A HIGH OF MAINLY PACIFIC ORIGIN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT
INITIALLY...BRINGING ABOUT A FAIR...COOL WEEKEND.  A REINFORCING
UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AND SFC FRONT CROSS MON...WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...AND THEN EVEN COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BLENDED IN GFS BASED GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS FRI AND THEN MAINLY WPC FOR
LOWS AND HIGHS BEYOND THAT...MOST CHANGES TO LOWER VALUES BUT NOT BY
MUCH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECTING THE RIVER VALLEY FOG TO BE THE SLOWEST TO EVAPORATE E
AND S OF CRW IN THE SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA COAL FIELDS...BUT
SHOULD BE GONE BY 14Z.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT 3 TO 5 THSD FT FORMING 14Z TO 17Z OVER
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...PLUS THE CENTRAL WV
MOUNTAINS.  HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS REACHING INTO UNI-PKB-CKB-KEN
CORRIDOR 18Z TO 21Z...THEN LINGERING IN NORTHERN/CENTRAL WV 00Z TO
06Z.  COULD NOT RULE OUT A MINIMAL THUNDERSTORM.  AN ISOLATED CELL
COULD REACH HTS-CRW CORRIDOR 22Z TUESDAY TO 03Z WEDNESDAY.

EXPECT LOWER CEILINGS TO BE MOVING SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO 00Z TO
06Z WEDNESDAY...WITH 1 THSD FT BKN TO OVC POSSIBLE AND VSBY NEAR
5 MILES IN HAZE.  HOW FAR EAST AND SOUTH THAT ADVECTS IS DIFFICULT
TO FIGURE...WITH 925 MB FLOW QUICKLY TURNING TO EAST BEFORE 06Z
WEDNESDAY.  CRW A TOUGH CALL BETWEEN STRATUS AND SURFACE BASED FOG
FORMING 06Z TO 12Z WEDNESDAY.  THINKING MORE DIURNAL FOG WILL FORM
ACROSS SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA BY 06Z WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY BE MORE THAN FORECAST
IN THE PKB-CKB-EKN VCNTY. ARRIVAL OF LOWER STRATUS CEILING INTO
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND MID OHIO VALLEY AROUND PKB MAY BE FASTER THAN
FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/50
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...KTB









000
FXUS61 KRLX 301021
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
618 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS SOUTHEAST...BRUSHES AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE/LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY  STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY. MUCH COOLER WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PATCHES OF CLOUDS STILL OVER THE MOUNTAINS AT 07Z...OTHERWISE VALLEY
FOG PREVAILS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS MID/UPPER TROF OVER LAKE
HURON AND MICHIGAN DROPPING SOUTHEAST.  ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT/WIND
SHIFT WAS APPROACHING TOL AND STILL NORTH OF IND.

AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...THE MAIN COOLING ALOFT TODAY WILL BE NORTH
OF OUR CWA.  FOR EXAMPLE...00Z NAM HAS 500 MB TEMP AT PBZ COOLING
ABOUT 5C TODAY...WHILE CKB ONLY ABOUT A DEG C.  SO TIMING THE
POPS...AND HOW FAR SOUTH TO MENTION PCPN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT IS ONE CHALLENGE.  AFTER DIGESTING THE MODELS...SEE NO
REASON TO CHANGE THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS
HTS-CRW VCNTY FOR THIS EVENING.  THIS IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN
MOST 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS.  FURTHER NNE...HAVE POPS MAXING OUT AROUND
40 TO 50 PCT FOR N CNTRL WV FROM 21Z TODAY TO 01Z WEDNESDAY.

DRY AIR SOUTH OF THAT DISTURBANCE FOR TODAY. RAP SOLUTION TRIES TO
EVEN LOWER DEW POINTS INTO THE 40S.  MAYBE ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN LIKE
BKW...BUT DID NOT GO THAT LOW IN THE WESTERN LOWLANDS.

MAIN PUSH BEHIND FRONT IS INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO...BEFORE 925 MB WINDS
QUICKLY VEER TO EAST OR DIMINISH TO CALM.  THINKING LOW STRATUS WILL
FORM TONIGHT IN SE OHIO BEHIND FRONT.  FURTHER SOUTH IN THE COAL
FIELDS OF WV...WAS THINKING JUST THE USUAL DIURNAL LATE NIGHT FOG.
FURTHER NORTH...LINGERING CLOUDS MAY HINDER OR DELAY THE FOG
FORMATION AROUND CKB AND EKN.  HTS-CRW CORRIDOR IS A TOUGH CALL
BETWEEN ALL 3 FOR LATE TONIGHT...PATCHES OF CLOUDS LINGERING
OVERNIGHT...STRATUS FORMATION...OR SURFACE BASED FOG FORMING.
OVERALL KEPT MINIMUM TEMPERATURE ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GFS MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE HEADING EAST OUT TO SEA TO START THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...ANTICIPATE LOTS OF LOW
STRATUS WEDNESDAY MORNING...GRADUALLY BREAKING UP THROUGH THE DAY.
ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE DO NOT EXPECT THESE
CLOUDS. WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUDS...ALSO LOWERED HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
SEVERAL DEGREES IN SE OHIO. BLENDED BIAS CORRECTED MET INTO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. HAVE A LITTLE TRAILING VORT MAX COMING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT DRY ELSEWHERE. WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PASSES THURSDAY WITH A
WARMER...SUNNY DAY. AGAIN BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MET. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. FOR LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS...BLENDED IN BIAS
CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
L/W TROUGH SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA THIS PERIOD.  RAIN IS MOST
LIKELY FRI AS LEAD SRN STREAM S/W TROUGH CROSSES JUST OUT AHEAD OF
SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH IS DRIVEN BY MID STREAM S/W PIVOTING THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FRI...DRIVING THE SFC COLD
FRONT THROUGH LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

STRONG FLOW...FORCING...LAST MINUTE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND LATE DAY TIMING SHOULD SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER...ALTHOUGH
A MITIGATING FACTOR IS THE LEAD SRN STREAM S/W...WHICH BRINGS CLOUDS
AND RAIN ACROSS EARLIER IN THE DAY.

A HIGH OF MAINLY PACIFIC ORIGIN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT
INITIALLY...BRINGING ABOUT A FAIR...COOL WEEKEND.  A REINFORCING
UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AND SFC FRONT CROSS MON...WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...AND THEN EVEN COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BLENDED IN GFS BASED GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS FRI AND THEN MAINLY WPC FOR
LOWS AND HIGHS BEYOND THAT...MOST CHANGES TO LOWER VALUES BUT NOT BY
MUCH.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECTING THE RIVER VALLEY FOG TO BE THE SLOWEST TO EVAPORATE E AND
S OF CRW IN THE SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA COAL FIELDS...BUT SHOULD BE
GONE BY 14Z.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT 3 TO 5 THSD FT FORMING 14Z TO 17Z OVER
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...PLUS THE CENTRAL WV
MOUNTAINS.  HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS REACHING INTO UNI-PKB-CKB-KEN
CORRIDOR 18Z TO 21Z...THEN LINGERING IN NORTHERN/CENTRAL WV 00Z TO
06Z.  COULD NOT RULE OUT A MINIMAL THUNDERSTORM.  AN ISOLATED CELL
COULD REACH HTS-CRW CORRIDOR 22Z TUESDAY TO 03Z WEDNESDAY.

EXPECT LOWER CEILINGS TO BE MOVING SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO 00Z TO
06Z WEDNESDAY...WITH 1 THSD FT BKN TO OVC POSSIBLE AND VSBY NEAR
5 MILES IN HAZE.  HOW FAR EAST AND SOUTH THAT ADVECTS IS DIFFICULT
TO FIGURE...WITH 925 MB FLOW QUICKLY TURNING TO EAST BEFORE 06Z
WEDNESDAY.  CRW A TOUGH CALL BETWEEN STRATUS AND SURFACE BASED FOG
FORMING 06Z TO 12Z WEDNESDAY.  THINKING MORE DIURNAL FOG WILL FORM
ACROSS SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA BY 06Z WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY BE MORE THAN FORECAST
IN THE PKB-CKB-EKN VCNTY. ARRIVAL OF LOWER STRATUS CEILING INTO
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND MID OHIO VALLEY AROUND PKB MAY BE FASTER THAN
FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    TUE 09/30/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...KTB











000
FXUS61 KRLX 301021
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
618 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS SOUTHEAST...BRUSHES AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE/LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY  STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY. MUCH COOLER WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PATCHES OF CLOUDS STILL OVER THE MOUNTAINS AT 07Z...OTHERWISE VALLEY
FOG PREVAILS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS MID/UPPER TROF OVER LAKE
HURON AND MICHIGAN DROPPING SOUTHEAST.  ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT/WIND
SHIFT WAS APPROACHING TOL AND STILL NORTH OF IND.

AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...THE MAIN COOLING ALOFT TODAY WILL BE NORTH
OF OUR CWA.  FOR EXAMPLE...00Z NAM HAS 500 MB TEMP AT PBZ COOLING
ABOUT 5C TODAY...WHILE CKB ONLY ABOUT A DEG C.  SO TIMING THE
POPS...AND HOW FAR SOUTH TO MENTION PCPN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT IS ONE CHALLENGE.  AFTER DIGESTING THE MODELS...SEE NO
REASON TO CHANGE THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS
HTS-CRW VCNTY FOR THIS EVENING.  THIS IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN
MOST 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS.  FURTHER NNE...HAVE POPS MAXING OUT AROUND
40 TO 50 PCT FOR N CNTRL WV FROM 21Z TODAY TO 01Z WEDNESDAY.

DRY AIR SOUTH OF THAT DISTURBANCE FOR TODAY. RAP SOLUTION TRIES TO
EVEN LOWER DEW POINTS INTO THE 40S.  MAYBE ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN LIKE
BKW...BUT DID NOT GO THAT LOW IN THE WESTERN LOWLANDS.

MAIN PUSH BEHIND FRONT IS INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO...BEFORE 925 MB WINDS
QUICKLY VEER TO EAST OR DIMINISH TO CALM.  THINKING LOW STRATUS WILL
FORM TONIGHT IN SE OHIO BEHIND FRONT.  FURTHER SOUTH IN THE COAL
FIELDS OF WV...WAS THINKING JUST THE USUAL DIURNAL LATE NIGHT FOG.
FURTHER NORTH...LINGERING CLOUDS MAY HINDER OR DELAY THE FOG
FORMATION AROUND CKB AND EKN.  HTS-CRW CORRIDOR IS A TOUGH CALL
BETWEEN ALL 3 FOR LATE TONIGHT...PATCHES OF CLOUDS LINGERING
OVERNIGHT...STRATUS FORMATION...OR SURFACE BASED FOG FORMING.
OVERALL KEPT MINIMUM TEMPERATURE ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GFS MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE HEADING EAST OUT TO SEA TO START THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...ANTICIPATE LOTS OF LOW
STRATUS WEDNESDAY MORNING...GRADUALLY BREAKING UP THROUGH THE DAY.
ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE DO NOT EXPECT THESE
CLOUDS. WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUDS...ALSO LOWERED HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
SEVERAL DEGREES IN SE OHIO. BLENDED BIAS CORRECTED MET INTO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. HAVE A LITTLE TRAILING VORT MAX COMING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT DRY ELSEWHERE. WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PASSES THURSDAY WITH A
WARMER...SUNNY DAY. AGAIN BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MET. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. FOR LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS...BLENDED IN BIAS
CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
L/W TROUGH SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA THIS PERIOD.  RAIN IS MOST
LIKELY FRI AS LEAD SRN STREAM S/W TROUGH CROSSES JUST OUT AHEAD OF
SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH IS DRIVEN BY MID STREAM S/W PIVOTING THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FRI...DRIVING THE SFC COLD
FRONT THROUGH LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

STRONG FLOW...FORCING...LAST MINUTE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND LATE DAY TIMING SHOULD SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER...ALTHOUGH
A MITIGATING FACTOR IS THE LEAD SRN STREAM S/W...WHICH BRINGS CLOUDS
AND RAIN ACROSS EARLIER IN THE DAY.

A HIGH OF MAINLY PACIFIC ORIGIN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT
INITIALLY...BRINGING ABOUT A FAIR...COOL WEEKEND.  A REINFORCING
UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AND SFC FRONT CROSS MON...WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...AND THEN EVEN COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BLENDED IN GFS BASED GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS FRI AND THEN MAINLY WPC FOR
LOWS AND HIGHS BEYOND THAT...MOST CHANGES TO LOWER VALUES BUT NOT BY
MUCH.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECTING THE RIVER VALLEY FOG TO BE THE SLOWEST TO EVAPORATE E AND
S OF CRW IN THE SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA COAL FIELDS...BUT SHOULD BE
GONE BY 14Z.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT 3 TO 5 THSD FT FORMING 14Z TO 17Z OVER
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...PLUS THE CENTRAL WV
MOUNTAINS.  HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS REACHING INTO UNI-PKB-CKB-KEN
CORRIDOR 18Z TO 21Z...THEN LINGERING IN NORTHERN/CENTRAL WV 00Z TO
06Z.  COULD NOT RULE OUT A MINIMAL THUNDERSTORM.  AN ISOLATED CELL
COULD REACH HTS-CRW CORRIDOR 22Z TUESDAY TO 03Z WEDNESDAY.

EXPECT LOWER CEILINGS TO BE MOVING SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO 00Z TO
06Z WEDNESDAY...WITH 1 THSD FT BKN TO OVC POSSIBLE AND VSBY NEAR
5 MILES IN HAZE.  HOW FAR EAST AND SOUTH THAT ADVECTS IS DIFFICULT
TO FIGURE...WITH 925 MB FLOW QUICKLY TURNING TO EAST BEFORE 06Z
WEDNESDAY.  CRW A TOUGH CALL BETWEEN STRATUS AND SURFACE BASED FOG
FORMING 06Z TO 12Z WEDNESDAY.  THINKING MORE DIURNAL FOG WILL FORM
ACROSS SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA BY 06Z WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY BE MORE THAN FORECAST
IN THE PKB-CKB-EKN VCNTY. ARRIVAL OF LOWER STRATUS CEILING INTO
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND MID OHIO VALLEY AROUND PKB MAY BE FASTER THAN
FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    TUE 09/30/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...KTB











000
FXUS61 KRLX 301021
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
618 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS SOUTHEAST...BRUSHES AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE/LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY  STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY. MUCH COOLER WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PATCHES OF CLOUDS STILL OVER THE MOUNTAINS AT 07Z...OTHERWISE VALLEY
FOG PREVAILS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS MID/UPPER TROF OVER LAKE
HURON AND MICHIGAN DROPPING SOUTHEAST.  ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT/WIND
SHIFT WAS APPROACHING TOL AND STILL NORTH OF IND.

AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...THE MAIN COOLING ALOFT TODAY WILL BE NORTH
OF OUR CWA.  FOR EXAMPLE...00Z NAM HAS 500 MB TEMP AT PBZ COOLING
ABOUT 5C TODAY...WHILE CKB ONLY ABOUT A DEG C.  SO TIMING THE
POPS...AND HOW FAR SOUTH TO MENTION PCPN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT IS ONE CHALLENGE.  AFTER DIGESTING THE MODELS...SEE NO
REASON TO CHANGE THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS
HTS-CRW VCNTY FOR THIS EVENING.  THIS IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN
MOST 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS.  FURTHER NNE...HAVE POPS MAXING OUT AROUND
40 TO 50 PCT FOR N CNTRL WV FROM 21Z TODAY TO 01Z WEDNESDAY.

DRY AIR SOUTH OF THAT DISTURBANCE FOR TODAY. RAP SOLUTION TRIES TO
EVEN LOWER DEW POINTS INTO THE 40S.  MAYBE ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN LIKE
BKW...BUT DID NOT GO THAT LOW IN THE WESTERN LOWLANDS.

MAIN PUSH BEHIND FRONT IS INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO...BEFORE 925 MB WINDS
QUICKLY VEER TO EAST OR DIMINISH TO CALM.  THINKING LOW STRATUS WILL
FORM TONIGHT IN SE OHIO BEHIND FRONT.  FURTHER SOUTH IN THE COAL
FIELDS OF WV...WAS THINKING JUST THE USUAL DIURNAL LATE NIGHT FOG.
FURTHER NORTH...LINGERING CLOUDS MAY HINDER OR DELAY THE FOG
FORMATION AROUND CKB AND EKN.  HTS-CRW CORRIDOR IS A TOUGH CALL
BETWEEN ALL 3 FOR LATE TONIGHT...PATCHES OF CLOUDS LINGERING
OVERNIGHT...STRATUS FORMATION...OR SURFACE BASED FOG FORMING.
OVERALL KEPT MINIMUM TEMPERATURE ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GFS MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE HEADING EAST OUT TO SEA TO START THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...ANTICIPATE LOTS OF LOW
STRATUS WEDNESDAY MORNING...GRADUALLY BREAKING UP THROUGH THE DAY.
ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE DO NOT EXPECT THESE
CLOUDS. WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUDS...ALSO LOWERED HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
SEVERAL DEGREES IN SE OHIO. BLENDED BIAS CORRECTED MET INTO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. HAVE A LITTLE TRAILING VORT MAX COMING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT DRY ELSEWHERE. WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PASSES THURSDAY WITH A
WARMER...SUNNY DAY. AGAIN BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MET. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. FOR LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS...BLENDED IN BIAS
CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
L/W TROUGH SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA THIS PERIOD.  RAIN IS MOST
LIKELY FRI AS LEAD SRN STREAM S/W TROUGH CROSSES JUST OUT AHEAD OF
SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH IS DRIVEN BY MID STREAM S/W PIVOTING THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FRI...DRIVING THE SFC COLD
FRONT THROUGH LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

STRONG FLOW...FORCING...LAST MINUTE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND LATE DAY TIMING SHOULD SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER...ALTHOUGH
A MITIGATING FACTOR IS THE LEAD SRN STREAM S/W...WHICH BRINGS CLOUDS
AND RAIN ACROSS EARLIER IN THE DAY.

A HIGH OF MAINLY PACIFIC ORIGIN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT
INITIALLY...BRINGING ABOUT A FAIR...COOL WEEKEND.  A REINFORCING
UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AND SFC FRONT CROSS MON...WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...AND THEN EVEN COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BLENDED IN GFS BASED GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS FRI AND THEN MAINLY WPC FOR
LOWS AND HIGHS BEYOND THAT...MOST CHANGES TO LOWER VALUES BUT NOT BY
MUCH.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECTING THE RIVER VALLEY FOG TO BE THE SLOWEST TO EVAPORATE E AND
S OF CRW IN THE SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA COAL FIELDS...BUT SHOULD BE
GONE BY 14Z.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT 3 TO 5 THSD FT FORMING 14Z TO 17Z OVER
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...PLUS THE CENTRAL WV
MOUNTAINS.  HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS REACHING INTO UNI-PKB-CKB-KEN
CORRIDOR 18Z TO 21Z...THEN LINGERING IN NORTHERN/CENTRAL WV 00Z TO
06Z.  COULD NOT RULE OUT A MINIMAL THUNDERSTORM.  AN ISOLATED CELL
COULD REACH HTS-CRW CORRIDOR 22Z TUESDAY TO 03Z WEDNESDAY.

EXPECT LOWER CEILINGS TO BE MOVING SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO 00Z TO
06Z WEDNESDAY...WITH 1 THSD FT BKN TO OVC POSSIBLE AND VSBY NEAR
5 MILES IN HAZE.  HOW FAR EAST AND SOUTH THAT ADVECTS IS DIFFICULT
TO FIGURE...WITH 925 MB FLOW QUICKLY TURNING TO EAST BEFORE 06Z
WEDNESDAY.  CRW A TOUGH CALL BETWEEN STRATUS AND SURFACE BASED FOG
FORMING 06Z TO 12Z WEDNESDAY.  THINKING MORE DIURNAL FOG WILL FORM
ACROSS SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA BY 06Z WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY BE MORE THAN FORECAST
IN THE PKB-CKB-EKN VCNTY. ARRIVAL OF LOWER STRATUS CEILING INTO
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND MID OHIO VALLEY AROUND PKB MAY BE FASTER THAN
FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    TUE 09/30/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...KTB











000
FXUS61 KRLX 301021
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
618 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS SOUTHEAST...BRUSHES AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE/LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY  STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY. MUCH COOLER WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PATCHES OF CLOUDS STILL OVER THE MOUNTAINS AT 07Z...OTHERWISE VALLEY
FOG PREVAILS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS MID/UPPER TROF OVER LAKE
HURON AND MICHIGAN DROPPING SOUTHEAST.  ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT/WIND
SHIFT WAS APPROACHING TOL AND STILL NORTH OF IND.

AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...THE MAIN COOLING ALOFT TODAY WILL BE NORTH
OF OUR CWA.  FOR EXAMPLE...00Z NAM HAS 500 MB TEMP AT PBZ COOLING
ABOUT 5C TODAY...WHILE CKB ONLY ABOUT A DEG C.  SO TIMING THE
POPS...AND HOW FAR SOUTH TO MENTION PCPN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT IS ONE CHALLENGE.  AFTER DIGESTING THE MODELS...SEE NO
REASON TO CHANGE THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS
HTS-CRW VCNTY FOR THIS EVENING.  THIS IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN
MOST 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS.  FURTHER NNE...HAVE POPS MAXING OUT AROUND
40 TO 50 PCT FOR N CNTRL WV FROM 21Z TODAY TO 01Z WEDNESDAY.

DRY AIR SOUTH OF THAT DISTURBANCE FOR TODAY. RAP SOLUTION TRIES TO
EVEN LOWER DEW POINTS INTO THE 40S.  MAYBE ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN LIKE
BKW...BUT DID NOT GO THAT LOW IN THE WESTERN LOWLANDS.

MAIN PUSH BEHIND FRONT IS INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO...BEFORE 925 MB WINDS
QUICKLY VEER TO EAST OR DIMINISH TO CALM.  THINKING LOW STRATUS WILL
FORM TONIGHT IN SE OHIO BEHIND FRONT.  FURTHER SOUTH IN THE COAL
FIELDS OF WV...WAS THINKING JUST THE USUAL DIURNAL LATE NIGHT FOG.
FURTHER NORTH...LINGERING CLOUDS MAY HINDER OR DELAY THE FOG
FORMATION AROUND CKB AND EKN.  HTS-CRW CORRIDOR IS A TOUGH CALL
BETWEEN ALL 3 FOR LATE TONIGHT...PATCHES OF CLOUDS LINGERING
OVERNIGHT...STRATUS FORMATION...OR SURFACE BASED FOG FORMING.
OVERALL KEPT MINIMUM TEMPERATURE ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GFS MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE HEADING EAST OUT TO SEA TO START THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...ANTICIPATE LOTS OF LOW
STRATUS WEDNESDAY MORNING...GRADUALLY BREAKING UP THROUGH THE DAY.
ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE DO NOT EXPECT THESE
CLOUDS. WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUDS...ALSO LOWERED HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
SEVERAL DEGREES IN SE OHIO. BLENDED BIAS CORRECTED MET INTO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. HAVE A LITTLE TRAILING VORT MAX COMING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT DRY ELSEWHERE. WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PASSES THURSDAY WITH A
WARMER...SUNNY DAY. AGAIN BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MET. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. FOR LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS...BLENDED IN BIAS
CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
L/W TROUGH SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA THIS PERIOD.  RAIN IS MOST
LIKELY FRI AS LEAD SRN STREAM S/W TROUGH CROSSES JUST OUT AHEAD OF
SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH IS DRIVEN BY MID STREAM S/W PIVOTING THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FRI...DRIVING THE SFC COLD
FRONT THROUGH LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

STRONG FLOW...FORCING...LAST MINUTE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND LATE DAY TIMING SHOULD SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER...ALTHOUGH
A MITIGATING FACTOR IS THE LEAD SRN STREAM S/W...WHICH BRINGS CLOUDS
AND RAIN ACROSS EARLIER IN THE DAY.

A HIGH OF MAINLY PACIFIC ORIGIN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT
INITIALLY...BRINGING ABOUT A FAIR...COOL WEEKEND.  A REINFORCING
UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AND SFC FRONT CROSS MON...WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...AND THEN EVEN COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BLENDED IN GFS BASED GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS FRI AND THEN MAINLY WPC FOR
LOWS AND HIGHS BEYOND THAT...MOST CHANGES TO LOWER VALUES BUT NOT BY
MUCH.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECTING THE RIVER VALLEY FOG TO BE THE SLOWEST TO EVAPORATE E AND
S OF CRW IN THE SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA COAL FIELDS...BUT SHOULD BE
GONE BY 14Z.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT 3 TO 5 THSD FT FORMING 14Z TO 17Z OVER
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...PLUS THE CENTRAL WV
MOUNTAINS.  HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS REACHING INTO UNI-PKB-CKB-KEN
CORRIDOR 18Z TO 21Z...THEN LINGERING IN NORTHERN/CENTRAL WV 00Z TO
06Z.  COULD NOT RULE OUT A MINIMAL THUNDERSTORM.  AN ISOLATED CELL
COULD REACH HTS-CRW CORRIDOR 22Z TUESDAY TO 03Z WEDNESDAY.

EXPECT LOWER CEILINGS TO BE MOVING SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO 00Z TO
06Z WEDNESDAY...WITH 1 THSD FT BKN TO OVC POSSIBLE AND VSBY NEAR
5 MILES IN HAZE.  HOW FAR EAST AND SOUTH THAT ADVECTS IS DIFFICULT
TO FIGURE...WITH 925 MB FLOW QUICKLY TURNING TO EAST BEFORE 06Z
WEDNESDAY.  CRW A TOUGH CALL BETWEEN STRATUS AND SURFACE BASED FOG
FORMING 06Z TO 12Z WEDNESDAY.  THINKING MORE DIURNAL FOG WILL FORM
ACROSS SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA BY 06Z WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY BE MORE THAN FORECAST
IN THE PKB-CKB-EKN VCNTY. ARRIVAL OF LOWER STRATUS CEILING INTO
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND MID OHIO VALLEY AROUND PKB MAY BE FASTER THAN
FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    TUE 09/30/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...KTB











000
FXUS61 KRLX 300754
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
348 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS SOUTHEAST...BRUSHES AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE/LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY  STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY. MUCH COOLER WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PATCHES OF CLOUDS STILL OVER THE MOUNTAINS AT 07Z...OTHERWISE VALLEY
FOG PREVAILS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS MID/UPPER TROF OVER LAKE
HURON AND MICHIGAN DROPPING SOUTHEAST.  ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT/WIND
SHIFT WAS APPROACHING TOL AND STILL NORTH OF IND.

AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...THE MAIN COOLING ALOFT TODAY WILL BE NORTH
OF OUR CWA.  FOR EXAMPLE...00Z NAM HAS 500 MB TEMP AT PBZ COOLING
ABOUT 5C TODAY...WHILE CKB ONLY ABOUT A DEG C.  SO TIMING THE
POPS...AND HOW FAR SOUTH TO MENTION PCPN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT IS ONE CHALLENGE.  AFTER DIGESTING THE MODELS...SEE NO
REASON TO CHANGE THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS
HTS-CRW VCNTY FOR THIS EVENING.  THIS IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN
MOST 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS.  FURTHER NNE...HAVE POPS MAXING OUT AROUND
40 PCT FOR N CNTRL WV FROM 22Z TODAY TO 01Z WEDNESDAY.

DRY AIR SOUTH OF THAT DISTURBANCE FOR TODAY. RAP SOLUTION TRIES TO
EVEN LOWER DEW POINTS INTO THE 40S.  MAYBE ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN LIKE
BKW...BUT DID NOT GO THAT LOW IN THE WESTERN LOWLANDS.

MAIN PUSH BEHIND FRONT IS INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO...BEFORE 925 MB WINDS
QUICKLY VEER TO EAST OR DIMINISH TO CALM.  THINKING LOW STRATUS WILL
FORM TONIGHT IN SE OHIO BEHIND FRONT.  FURTHER SOUTH IN THE COAL
FIELDS OF WV...WAS THINKING JUST THE USUAL DIURNAL LATE NIGHT FOG.
FURTHER NORTH...LINGERING CLOUDS MAY HINDER OR DELAY THE FOG
FORMATION AROUND CKB AND EKN.  HTS-CRW CORRIDOR IS A TOUGH CALL
BETWEEN ALL 3 FOR LATE TONIGHT...PATCHES OF CLOUDS LINGERING
OVERNIGHT...STRATUS FORMATION...OR SURFACE BASED FOG FORMING.
OVERALL KEPT MINIMUM TEMPERATURE ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GFS MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE HEADING EAST OUT TO SEA TO START THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...ANTICIPATE LOTS OF LOW
STRATUS WEDNESDAY MORNING...GRADUALLY BREAKING UP THROUGH THE DAY.
ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE DO NOT EXPECT THESE
CLOUDS. WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUDS...ALSO LOWERED HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
SEVERAL DEGREES IN SE OHIO. BLENDED BIAS CORRECTED MET INTO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. HAVE A LITTLE TRAILING VORT MAX COMING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT DRY ELSEWHERE. WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PASSES THURSDAY WITH A
WARMER...SUNNY DAY. AGAIN BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MET. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. FOR LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS...BLENDED IN BIAS
CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
L/W TROUGH SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA THIS PERIOD.  RAIN IS MOST
LIKELY FRI AS LEAD SRN STREAM S/W TROUGH CROSSES JUST OUT AHEAD OF
SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH IS DRIVEN BY MID STREAM S/W PIVOTING THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FRI...DRIVING THE SFC COLD
FRONT THROUGH LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

STRONG FLOW...FORCING...LAST MINUTE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND LATE DAY TIMING SHOULD SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER...ALTHOUGH
A MITIGATING FACTOR IS THE LEAD SRN STREAM S/W...WHICH BRINGS CLOUDS
AND RAIN ACROSS EARLIER IN THE DAY.

A HIGH OF MAINLY PACIFIC ORIGIN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT
INITIALLY...BRINGING ABOUT A FAIR...COOL WEEKEND.  A REINFORCING
UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AND SFC FRONT CROSS MON...WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...AND THEN EVEN COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BLENDED IN GFS BASED GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS FRI AND THEN MAINLY WPC FOR
LOWS AND HIGHS BEYOND THAT...MOST CHANGES TO LOWER VALUES BUT NOT BY
MUCH.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIVER VALLEY FOG SHOULD BE COMMON THROUGH WEST VIRGINIA INTO
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA 06Z TO 12Z. DRIER AIR IN SOUTHEAST OHIO...BUT THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES MAY STILL CAUSE SOME FOG THERE...BUT OF SHORTER
DURATION.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT 3 TO 5 THSD FT FORMING 14Z TO 17Z OVER
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...PLUS THE CENTRAL WV
MOUNTAINS.  HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS REACHING INTO UNI-PKB-CKB-KEN
CORRIDOR 18Z TO 21Z...THEN LINGERING IN NORTHERN/CENTRAL WV 00Z TO
06Z.  COULD NOT RULE OUT A MINIMAL THUNDERSTORM.  AN ISOLATED CELL
COULD REACH HTS-CRW CORRIDOR 22Z TUESDAY TO 03Z WEDNESDAY.

EXPECT LOWER CEILINGS TO BE MOVING SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO 00Z TO
06Z WEDNESDAY...WITH 1 THSD FT BKN TO OVC POSSIBLE AND VSBY NEAR
5 MILES IN HAZE.  HOW FAR EAST AND SOUTH THAT ADVECTS IS DIFFICULT
TO FIGURE...WITH 925 MB FLOW QUICKLY TURNING TO EAST BEFORE 06Z
WEDNESDAY.  THINKING MORE DIURNAL FOG WILL FORM ACROSS SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA BY 06Z WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RIVER/VALLEY FOG TIMING AND DENSITY MAY VARY
OVERNIGHT.  ARRIVAL OF LOWER STRATUS CEILING INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND
MID OHIO VALLEY AROUND PKB MAY BE FASTER THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    TUE 09/30/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...KTB












000
FXUS61 KRLX 300754
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
348 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS SOUTHEAST...BRUSHES AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE/LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY  STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY. MUCH COOLER WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PATCHES OF CLOUDS STILL OVER THE MOUNTAINS AT 07Z...OTHERWISE VALLEY
FOG PREVAILS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS MID/UPPER TROF OVER LAKE
HURON AND MICHIGAN DROPPING SOUTHEAST.  ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT/WIND
SHIFT WAS APPROACHING TOL AND STILL NORTH OF IND.

AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...THE MAIN COOLING ALOFT TODAY WILL BE NORTH
OF OUR CWA.  FOR EXAMPLE...00Z NAM HAS 500 MB TEMP AT PBZ COOLING
ABOUT 5C TODAY...WHILE CKB ONLY ABOUT A DEG C.  SO TIMING THE
POPS...AND HOW FAR SOUTH TO MENTION PCPN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT IS ONE CHALLENGE.  AFTER DIGESTING THE MODELS...SEE NO
REASON TO CHANGE THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS
HTS-CRW VCNTY FOR THIS EVENING.  THIS IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN
MOST 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS.  FURTHER NNE...HAVE POPS MAXING OUT AROUND
40 PCT FOR N CNTRL WV FROM 22Z TODAY TO 01Z WEDNESDAY.

DRY AIR SOUTH OF THAT DISTURBANCE FOR TODAY. RAP SOLUTION TRIES TO
EVEN LOWER DEW POINTS INTO THE 40S.  MAYBE ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN LIKE
BKW...BUT DID NOT GO THAT LOW IN THE WESTERN LOWLANDS.

MAIN PUSH BEHIND FRONT IS INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO...BEFORE 925 MB WINDS
QUICKLY VEER TO EAST OR DIMINISH TO CALM.  THINKING LOW STRATUS WILL
FORM TONIGHT IN SE OHIO BEHIND FRONT.  FURTHER SOUTH IN THE COAL
FIELDS OF WV...WAS THINKING JUST THE USUAL DIURNAL LATE NIGHT FOG.
FURTHER NORTH...LINGERING CLOUDS MAY HINDER OR DELAY THE FOG
FORMATION AROUND CKB AND EKN.  HTS-CRW CORRIDOR IS A TOUGH CALL
BETWEEN ALL 3 FOR LATE TONIGHT...PATCHES OF CLOUDS LINGERING
OVERNIGHT...STRATUS FORMATION...OR SURFACE BASED FOG FORMING.
OVERALL KEPT MINIMUM TEMPERATURE ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GFS MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE HEADING EAST OUT TO SEA TO START THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...ANTICIPATE LOTS OF LOW
STRATUS WEDNESDAY MORNING...GRADUALLY BREAKING UP THROUGH THE DAY.
ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE DO NOT EXPECT THESE
CLOUDS. WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUDS...ALSO LOWERED HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
SEVERAL DEGREES IN SE OHIO. BLENDED BIAS CORRECTED MET INTO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. HAVE A LITTLE TRAILING VORT MAX COMING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT DRY ELSEWHERE. WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PASSES THURSDAY WITH A
WARMER...SUNNY DAY. AGAIN BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MET. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. FOR LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS...BLENDED IN BIAS
CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
L/W TROUGH SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA THIS PERIOD.  RAIN IS MOST
LIKELY FRI AS LEAD SRN STREAM S/W TROUGH CROSSES JUST OUT AHEAD OF
SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH IS DRIVEN BY MID STREAM S/W PIVOTING THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FRI...DRIVING THE SFC COLD
FRONT THROUGH LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

STRONG FLOW...FORCING...LAST MINUTE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND LATE DAY TIMING SHOULD SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER...ALTHOUGH
A MITIGATING FACTOR IS THE LEAD SRN STREAM S/W...WHICH BRINGS CLOUDS
AND RAIN ACROSS EARLIER IN THE DAY.

A HIGH OF MAINLY PACIFIC ORIGIN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT
INITIALLY...BRINGING ABOUT A FAIR...COOL WEEKEND.  A REINFORCING
UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AND SFC FRONT CROSS MON...WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...AND THEN EVEN COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BLENDED IN GFS BASED GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS FRI AND THEN MAINLY WPC FOR
LOWS AND HIGHS BEYOND THAT...MOST CHANGES TO LOWER VALUES BUT NOT BY
MUCH.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIVER VALLEY FOG SHOULD BE COMMON THROUGH WEST VIRGINIA INTO
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA 06Z TO 12Z. DRIER AIR IN SOUTHEAST OHIO...BUT THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES MAY STILL CAUSE SOME FOG THERE...BUT OF SHORTER
DURATION.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT 3 TO 5 THSD FT FORMING 14Z TO 17Z OVER
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...PLUS THE CENTRAL WV
MOUNTAINS.  HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS REACHING INTO UNI-PKB-CKB-KEN
CORRIDOR 18Z TO 21Z...THEN LINGERING IN NORTHERN/CENTRAL WV 00Z TO
06Z.  COULD NOT RULE OUT A MINIMAL THUNDERSTORM.  AN ISOLATED CELL
COULD REACH HTS-CRW CORRIDOR 22Z TUESDAY TO 03Z WEDNESDAY.

EXPECT LOWER CEILINGS TO BE MOVING SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO 00Z TO
06Z WEDNESDAY...WITH 1 THSD FT BKN TO OVC POSSIBLE AND VSBY NEAR
5 MILES IN HAZE.  HOW FAR EAST AND SOUTH THAT ADVECTS IS DIFFICULT
TO FIGURE...WITH 925 MB FLOW QUICKLY TURNING TO EAST BEFORE 06Z
WEDNESDAY.  THINKING MORE DIURNAL FOG WILL FORM ACROSS SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA BY 06Z WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RIVER/VALLEY FOG TIMING AND DENSITY MAY VARY
OVERNIGHT.  ARRIVAL OF LOWER STRATUS CEILING INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND
MID OHIO VALLEY AROUND PKB MAY BE FASTER THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    TUE 09/30/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...KTB













000
FXUS61 KRLX 300541
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
135 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS SOUTHEAST...BRUSHES AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE/LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY  STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY. MUCH COOLER WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH UPPER
TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER AT THIS TIME PER LATEST VAD WIND
PROFILER DATA. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP MAINLY SE OHIO
AND POINTS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE I64 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON ENDING
FROM NW TO SE...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ONLY IN THE EASTERN MTS BY
THE OUTSET OF THE FORECAST PERIOD 00Z TUE AS THE TROUGH AXIS
CONTINUES EAST.

BRIEF UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
FURTHER EAST...TAKING MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WITH IT. RIVER VALLEY FOG
SHOULD BE A DECENT BET IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS WITH A CALM NIGHT.
FURTHER EAST MAY ACTUALLY CONTINUE TO SEE SOME LLVL STRATUS VERSUS
FOG HOWEVER.

UPPER RIDGE IS QUICKLY REPLACED TUESDAY AS ANOTHER STOUT CLOSED
500MB LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SE-WARD TOWARDS THE EASTERN
LAKE ERIE REGION BY 00Z WED. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED...THE BETTER
MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SYSTEM ITSELF. WILL KEEP INHERITED SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE POPS HOWEVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE PRESENT BELOW A STOUT CAP
AROUND THE 600MB-700MB RANGE. SAME CAP SHOULD ALSO LIMIT ANY
VERTICAL GROWTH TO AROUND 16KFT-18KFT AND THUS...CONTINUED TO LEAVE
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS PER LATEST DATA MADE TO PREV FCST MINS/MAXES
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S FOR THE LOWLANDS AND
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S LOWLANDS STILL LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF THE AREA AT THE START OFF THE PERIOD MOVES AWAY
TO THE E TUE NT INTO WED.  HAVE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE N
MOVING E TUE NT ALONG WEAK SFC FRONT.  MODEST MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL
CAP SHOULD PRECLUDE THUNDER AS LIGHT FLOW BENEATH THE CAP SUGGESTS
WEAK UPDRAFTS.  UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS LATE WED INTO THU NT
FOR A PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER...WITH COOLER AIR MOSTLY LOCKED UP
IN CANADA DURING THIS TIME.

THIS CHANGES AS FULL LATITUDE L/W TROUGH MOVES EWD OUT OF THE
ROCKIES WED AND THU AND EVENTUALLY SETS UP OVER THE ERN CONUS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.  SOUTHERN STREAM LEAD S/W TROUGH APPROACHES THU
NT...WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT THU NT.
MODELS DIFFER ON ORIENTATION OF THIS FEATURE BUT ALL SUGGEST
FORCING GETTING OUT AHEAD OF THE SFC COLD FRONT.

BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MET FOR LOWS TUE NT AND MET STRAIGHT UP
FOR HIGHS WED.  LOWS WED AND THU NTS AND HIGHS WED WERE CLOSE TO
BIAS CORRECTED BLENDS AND LOOKED GOOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
L/W TROUGH SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA THIS PERIOD.  RAIN IS MOST
LIKELY FRI AS LEAD SRN STREAM S/W TROUGH CROSSES JUST OUT AHEAD OF
SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH IS DRIVEN BY MID STREAM S/W PIVOTING THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FRI...DRIVING THE SFC COLD
FRONT THROUGH LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

STRONG FLOW...FORCING...LAST MINUTE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND LATE DAY TIMING SHOULD SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER...ALTHOUGH
A MITIGATING FACTOR IS THE LEAD SRN STREAM S/W...WHICH BRINGS CLOUDS
AND RAIN ACROSS EARLIER IN THE DAY.

A HIGH OF MAINLY PACIFIC ORIGIN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT
INITIALLY...BRINGING ABOUT A FAIR...COOL WEEKEND.  A REINFORCING
UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AND SFC FRONT CROSS MON...WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...AND THEN EVEN COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BLENDED IN GFS BASED GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS FRI AND THEN MAINLY WPC FOR
LOWS AND HIGHS BEYOND THAT...MOST CHANGES TO LOWER VALUES BUT NOT BY
MUCH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIVER VALLEY FOG SHOULD BE COMMON THROUGH WEST VIRGINIA INTO
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA 06Z TO 12Z. DRIER AIR IN SOUTHEAST OHIO...BUT THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES MAY STILL CAUSE SOME FOG THERE...BUT OF SHORTER
DURATION.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT 3 TO 5 THSD FT FORMING 14Z TO 17Z OVER
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...PLUS THE CENTRAL WV
MOUNTAINS.  HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS REACHING INTO UNI-PKB-CKB-KEN
CORRIDOR 18Z TO 21Z...THEN LINGERING IN NORTHERN/CENTRAL WV 00Z TO
06Z.  COULD NOT RULE OUT A MINIMAL THUNDERSTORM.  AN ISOLATED CELL
COULD REACH HTS-CRW CORRIDOR 22Z TUESDAY TO 03Z WEDNESDAY.

EXPECT LOWER CEILINGS TO BE MOVING SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO 00Z TO
06Z WEDNESDAY...WITH 1 THSD FT BKN TO OVC POSSIBLE AND VSBY NEAR
5 MILES IN HAZE.  HOW FAR EAST AND SOUTH THAT ADVECTS IS DIFFICULT
TO FIGURE...WITH 925 MB FLOW QUICKLY TURNING TO EAST BEFORE 06Z
WEDNESDAY.  THINKING MORE DIURNAL FOG WILL FORM ACROSS SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA BY 06Z WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RIVER/VALLEY FOG TIMING AND DENSITY MAY VARY
OVERNIGHT.  ARRIVAL OF LOWER STRATUS CEILING INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND
MID OHIO VALLEY AROUND PKB MAY BE FASTER THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              TUE 09/30/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...50/26
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...KTB










000
FXUS61 KRLX 300541
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
135 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS SOUTHEAST...BRUSHES AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE/LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY  STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY. MUCH COOLER WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH UPPER
TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER AT THIS TIME PER LATEST VAD WIND
PROFILER DATA. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP MAINLY SE OHIO
AND POINTS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE I64 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON ENDING
FROM NW TO SE...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ONLY IN THE EASTERN MTS BY
THE OUTSET OF THE FORECAST PERIOD 00Z TUE AS THE TROUGH AXIS
CONTINUES EAST.

BRIEF UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
FURTHER EAST...TAKING MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WITH IT. RIVER VALLEY FOG
SHOULD BE A DECENT BET IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS WITH A CALM NIGHT.
FURTHER EAST MAY ACTUALLY CONTINUE TO SEE SOME LLVL STRATUS VERSUS
FOG HOWEVER.

UPPER RIDGE IS QUICKLY REPLACED TUESDAY AS ANOTHER STOUT CLOSED
500MB LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SE-WARD TOWARDS THE EASTERN
LAKE ERIE REGION BY 00Z WED. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED...THE BETTER
MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SYSTEM ITSELF. WILL KEEP INHERITED SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE POPS HOWEVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE PRESENT BELOW A STOUT CAP
AROUND THE 600MB-700MB RANGE. SAME CAP SHOULD ALSO LIMIT ANY
VERTICAL GROWTH TO AROUND 16KFT-18KFT AND THUS...CONTINUED TO LEAVE
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS PER LATEST DATA MADE TO PREV FCST MINS/MAXES
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S FOR THE LOWLANDS AND
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S LOWLANDS STILL LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF THE AREA AT THE START OFF THE PERIOD MOVES AWAY
TO THE E TUE NT INTO WED.  HAVE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE N
MOVING E TUE NT ALONG WEAK SFC FRONT.  MODEST MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL
CAP SHOULD PRECLUDE THUNDER AS LIGHT FLOW BENEATH THE CAP SUGGESTS
WEAK UPDRAFTS.  UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS LATE WED INTO THU NT
FOR A PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER...WITH COOLER AIR MOSTLY LOCKED UP
IN CANADA DURING THIS TIME.

THIS CHANGES AS FULL LATITUDE L/W TROUGH MOVES EWD OUT OF THE
ROCKIES WED AND THU AND EVENTUALLY SETS UP OVER THE ERN CONUS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.  SOUTHERN STREAM LEAD S/W TROUGH APPROACHES THU
NT...WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT THU NT.
MODELS DIFFER ON ORIENTATION OF THIS FEATURE BUT ALL SUGGEST
FORCING GETTING OUT AHEAD OF THE SFC COLD FRONT.

BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MET FOR LOWS TUE NT AND MET STRAIGHT UP
FOR HIGHS WED.  LOWS WED AND THU NTS AND HIGHS WED WERE CLOSE TO
BIAS CORRECTED BLENDS AND LOOKED GOOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
L/W TROUGH SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA THIS PERIOD.  RAIN IS MOST
LIKELY FRI AS LEAD SRN STREAM S/W TROUGH CROSSES JUST OUT AHEAD OF
SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH IS DRIVEN BY MID STREAM S/W PIVOTING THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FRI...DRIVING THE SFC COLD
FRONT THROUGH LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

STRONG FLOW...FORCING...LAST MINUTE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND LATE DAY TIMING SHOULD SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER...ALTHOUGH
A MITIGATING FACTOR IS THE LEAD SRN STREAM S/W...WHICH BRINGS CLOUDS
AND RAIN ACROSS EARLIER IN THE DAY.

A HIGH OF MAINLY PACIFIC ORIGIN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT
INITIALLY...BRINGING ABOUT A FAIR...COOL WEEKEND.  A REINFORCING
UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AND SFC FRONT CROSS MON...WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...AND THEN EVEN COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BLENDED IN GFS BASED GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS FRI AND THEN MAINLY WPC FOR
LOWS AND HIGHS BEYOND THAT...MOST CHANGES TO LOWER VALUES BUT NOT BY
MUCH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIVER VALLEY FOG SHOULD BE COMMON THROUGH WEST VIRGINIA INTO
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA 06Z TO 12Z. DRIER AIR IN SOUTHEAST OHIO...BUT THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES MAY STILL CAUSE SOME FOG THERE...BUT OF SHORTER
DURATION.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT 3 TO 5 THSD FT FORMING 14Z TO 17Z OVER
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...PLUS THE CENTRAL WV
MOUNTAINS.  HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS REACHING INTO UNI-PKB-CKB-KEN
CORRIDOR 18Z TO 21Z...THEN LINGERING IN NORTHERN/CENTRAL WV 00Z TO
06Z.  COULD NOT RULE OUT A MINIMAL THUNDERSTORM.  AN ISOLATED CELL
COULD REACH HTS-CRW CORRIDOR 22Z TUESDAY TO 03Z WEDNESDAY.

EXPECT LOWER CEILINGS TO BE MOVING SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO 00Z TO
06Z WEDNESDAY...WITH 1 THSD FT BKN TO OVC POSSIBLE AND VSBY NEAR
5 MILES IN HAZE.  HOW FAR EAST AND SOUTH THAT ADVECTS IS DIFFICULT
TO FIGURE...WITH 925 MB FLOW QUICKLY TURNING TO EAST BEFORE 06Z
WEDNESDAY.  THINKING MORE DIURNAL FOG WILL FORM ACROSS SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA BY 06Z WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RIVER/VALLEY FOG TIMING AND DENSITY MAY VARY
OVERNIGHT.  ARRIVAL OF LOWER STRATUS CEILING INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND
MID OHIO VALLEY AROUND PKB MAY BE FASTER THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              TUE 09/30/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...50/26
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...KTB










000
FXUS61 KRLX 300541
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
135 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS SOUTHEAST...BRUSHES AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE/LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY  STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY. MUCH COOLER WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH UPPER
TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER AT THIS TIME PER LATEST VAD WIND
PROFILER DATA. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP MAINLY SE OHIO
AND POINTS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE I64 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON ENDING
FROM NW TO SE...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ONLY IN THE EASTERN MTS BY
THE OUTSET OF THE FORECAST PERIOD 00Z TUE AS THE TROUGH AXIS
CONTINUES EAST.

BRIEF UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
FURTHER EAST...TAKING MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WITH IT. RIVER VALLEY FOG
SHOULD BE A DECENT BET IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS WITH A CALM NIGHT.
FURTHER EAST MAY ACTUALLY CONTINUE TO SEE SOME LLVL STRATUS VERSUS
FOG HOWEVER.

UPPER RIDGE IS QUICKLY REPLACED TUESDAY AS ANOTHER STOUT CLOSED
500MB LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SE-WARD TOWARDS THE EASTERN
LAKE ERIE REGION BY 00Z WED. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED...THE BETTER
MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SYSTEM ITSELF. WILL KEEP INHERITED SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE POPS HOWEVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE PRESENT BELOW A STOUT CAP
AROUND THE 600MB-700MB RANGE. SAME CAP SHOULD ALSO LIMIT ANY
VERTICAL GROWTH TO AROUND 16KFT-18KFT AND THUS...CONTINUED TO LEAVE
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS PER LATEST DATA MADE TO PREV FCST MINS/MAXES
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S FOR THE LOWLANDS AND
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S LOWLANDS STILL LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF THE AREA AT THE START OFF THE PERIOD MOVES AWAY
TO THE E TUE NT INTO WED.  HAVE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE N
MOVING E TUE NT ALONG WEAK SFC FRONT.  MODEST MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL
CAP SHOULD PRECLUDE THUNDER AS LIGHT FLOW BENEATH THE CAP SUGGESTS
WEAK UPDRAFTS.  UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS LATE WED INTO THU NT
FOR A PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER...WITH COOLER AIR MOSTLY LOCKED UP
IN CANADA DURING THIS TIME.

THIS CHANGES AS FULL LATITUDE L/W TROUGH MOVES EWD OUT OF THE
ROCKIES WED AND THU AND EVENTUALLY SETS UP OVER THE ERN CONUS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.  SOUTHERN STREAM LEAD S/W TROUGH APPROACHES THU
NT...WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT THU NT.
MODELS DIFFER ON ORIENTATION OF THIS FEATURE BUT ALL SUGGEST
FORCING GETTING OUT AHEAD OF THE SFC COLD FRONT.

BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MET FOR LOWS TUE NT AND MET STRAIGHT UP
FOR HIGHS WED.  LOWS WED AND THU NTS AND HIGHS WED WERE CLOSE TO
BIAS CORRECTED BLENDS AND LOOKED GOOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
L/W TROUGH SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA THIS PERIOD.  RAIN IS MOST
LIKELY FRI AS LEAD SRN STREAM S/W TROUGH CROSSES JUST OUT AHEAD OF
SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH IS DRIVEN BY MID STREAM S/W PIVOTING THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FRI...DRIVING THE SFC COLD
FRONT THROUGH LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

STRONG FLOW...FORCING...LAST MINUTE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND LATE DAY TIMING SHOULD SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER...ALTHOUGH
A MITIGATING FACTOR IS THE LEAD SRN STREAM S/W...WHICH BRINGS CLOUDS
AND RAIN ACROSS EARLIER IN THE DAY.

A HIGH OF MAINLY PACIFIC ORIGIN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT
INITIALLY...BRINGING ABOUT A FAIR...COOL WEEKEND.  A REINFORCING
UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AND SFC FRONT CROSS MON...WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...AND THEN EVEN COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BLENDED IN GFS BASED GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS FRI AND THEN MAINLY WPC FOR
LOWS AND HIGHS BEYOND THAT...MOST CHANGES TO LOWER VALUES BUT NOT BY
MUCH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIVER VALLEY FOG SHOULD BE COMMON THROUGH WEST VIRGINIA INTO
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA 06Z TO 12Z. DRIER AIR IN SOUTHEAST OHIO...BUT THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES MAY STILL CAUSE SOME FOG THERE...BUT OF SHORTER
DURATION.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT 3 TO 5 THSD FT FORMING 14Z TO 17Z OVER
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...PLUS THE CENTRAL WV
MOUNTAINS.  HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS REACHING INTO UNI-PKB-CKB-KEN
CORRIDOR 18Z TO 21Z...THEN LINGERING IN NORTHERN/CENTRAL WV 00Z TO
06Z.  COULD NOT RULE OUT A MINIMAL THUNDERSTORM.  AN ISOLATED CELL
COULD REACH HTS-CRW CORRIDOR 22Z TUESDAY TO 03Z WEDNESDAY.

EXPECT LOWER CEILINGS TO BE MOVING SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO 00Z TO
06Z WEDNESDAY...WITH 1 THSD FT BKN TO OVC POSSIBLE AND VSBY NEAR
5 MILES IN HAZE.  HOW FAR EAST AND SOUTH THAT ADVECTS IS DIFFICULT
TO FIGURE...WITH 925 MB FLOW QUICKLY TURNING TO EAST BEFORE 06Z
WEDNESDAY.  THINKING MORE DIURNAL FOG WILL FORM ACROSS SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA BY 06Z WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RIVER/VALLEY FOG TIMING AND DENSITY MAY VARY
OVERNIGHT.  ARRIVAL OF LOWER STRATUS CEILING INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND
MID OHIO VALLEY AROUND PKB MAY BE FASTER THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              TUE 09/30/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...50/26
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...KTB










000
FXUS61 KRLX 300541
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
135 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS SOUTHEAST...BRUSHES AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE/LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY  STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY. MUCH COOLER WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH UPPER
TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER AT THIS TIME PER LATEST VAD WIND
PROFILER DATA. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP MAINLY SE OHIO
AND POINTS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE I64 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON ENDING
FROM NW TO SE...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ONLY IN THE EASTERN MTS BY
THE OUTSET OF THE FORECAST PERIOD 00Z TUE AS THE TROUGH AXIS
CONTINUES EAST.

BRIEF UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
FURTHER EAST...TAKING MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WITH IT. RIVER VALLEY FOG
SHOULD BE A DECENT BET IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS WITH A CALM NIGHT.
FURTHER EAST MAY ACTUALLY CONTINUE TO SEE SOME LLVL STRATUS VERSUS
FOG HOWEVER.

UPPER RIDGE IS QUICKLY REPLACED TUESDAY AS ANOTHER STOUT CLOSED
500MB LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SE-WARD TOWARDS THE EASTERN
LAKE ERIE REGION BY 00Z WED. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED...THE BETTER
MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SYSTEM ITSELF. WILL KEEP INHERITED SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE POPS HOWEVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE PRESENT BELOW A STOUT CAP
AROUND THE 600MB-700MB RANGE. SAME CAP SHOULD ALSO LIMIT ANY
VERTICAL GROWTH TO AROUND 16KFT-18KFT AND THUS...CONTINUED TO LEAVE
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS PER LATEST DATA MADE TO PREV FCST MINS/MAXES
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S FOR THE LOWLANDS AND
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S LOWLANDS STILL LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF THE AREA AT THE START OFF THE PERIOD MOVES AWAY
TO THE E TUE NT INTO WED.  HAVE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE N
MOVING E TUE NT ALONG WEAK SFC FRONT.  MODEST MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL
CAP SHOULD PRECLUDE THUNDER AS LIGHT FLOW BENEATH THE CAP SUGGESTS
WEAK UPDRAFTS.  UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS LATE WED INTO THU NT
FOR A PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER...WITH COOLER AIR MOSTLY LOCKED UP
IN CANADA DURING THIS TIME.

THIS CHANGES AS FULL LATITUDE L/W TROUGH MOVES EWD OUT OF THE
ROCKIES WED AND THU AND EVENTUALLY SETS UP OVER THE ERN CONUS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.  SOUTHERN STREAM LEAD S/W TROUGH APPROACHES THU
NT...WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT THU NT.
MODELS DIFFER ON ORIENTATION OF THIS FEATURE BUT ALL SUGGEST
FORCING GETTING OUT AHEAD OF THE SFC COLD FRONT.

BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MET FOR LOWS TUE NT AND MET STRAIGHT UP
FOR HIGHS WED.  LOWS WED AND THU NTS AND HIGHS WED WERE CLOSE TO
BIAS CORRECTED BLENDS AND LOOKED GOOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
L/W TROUGH SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA THIS PERIOD.  RAIN IS MOST
LIKELY FRI AS LEAD SRN STREAM S/W TROUGH CROSSES JUST OUT AHEAD OF
SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH IS DRIVEN BY MID STREAM S/W PIVOTING THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FRI...DRIVING THE SFC COLD
FRONT THROUGH LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

STRONG FLOW...FORCING...LAST MINUTE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND LATE DAY TIMING SHOULD SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER...ALTHOUGH
A MITIGATING FACTOR IS THE LEAD SRN STREAM S/W...WHICH BRINGS CLOUDS
AND RAIN ACROSS EARLIER IN THE DAY.

A HIGH OF MAINLY PACIFIC ORIGIN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT
INITIALLY...BRINGING ABOUT A FAIR...COOL WEEKEND.  A REINFORCING
UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AND SFC FRONT CROSS MON...WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...AND THEN EVEN COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BLENDED IN GFS BASED GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS FRI AND THEN MAINLY WPC FOR
LOWS AND HIGHS BEYOND THAT...MOST CHANGES TO LOWER VALUES BUT NOT BY
MUCH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIVER VALLEY FOG SHOULD BE COMMON THROUGH WEST VIRGINIA INTO
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA 06Z TO 12Z. DRIER AIR IN SOUTHEAST OHIO...BUT THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES MAY STILL CAUSE SOME FOG THERE...BUT OF SHORTER
DURATION.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT 3 TO 5 THSD FT FORMING 14Z TO 17Z OVER
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...PLUS THE CENTRAL WV
MOUNTAINS.  HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS REACHING INTO UNI-PKB-CKB-KEN
CORRIDOR 18Z TO 21Z...THEN LINGERING IN NORTHERN/CENTRAL WV 00Z TO
06Z.  COULD NOT RULE OUT A MINIMAL THUNDERSTORM.  AN ISOLATED CELL
COULD REACH HTS-CRW CORRIDOR 22Z TUESDAY TO 03Z WEDNESDAY.

EXPECT LOWER CEILINGS TO BE MOVING SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO 00Z TO
06Z WEDNESDAY...WITH 1 THSD FT BKN TO OVC POSSIBLE AND VSBY NEAR
5 MILES IN HAZE.  HOW FAR EAST AND SOUTH THAT ADVECTS IS DIFFICULT
TO FIGURE...WITH 925 MB FLOW QUICKLY TURNING TO EAST BEFORE 06Z
WEDNESDAY.  THINKING MORE DIURNAL FOG WILL FORM ACROSS SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA BY 06Z WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RIVER/VALLEY FOG TIMING AND DENSITY MAY VARY
OVERNIGHT.  ARRIVAL OF LOWER STRATUS CEILING INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND
MID OHIO VALLEY AROUND PKB MAY BE FASTER THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              TUE 09/30/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...50/26
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...KTB










000
FXUS61 KRLX 300230
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1030 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER TROUGH EXITS THIS EVENING.  ANOTHER CROSSES NORTH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES FRIDAY.  COOL HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS NEXT WEEKEND.  REINFORCING COLD FRONT NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH UPPER
TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER AT THIS TIME PER LATEST VAD WIND
PROFILER DATA. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP MAINLY SE OHIO
AND POINTS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE I64 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON ENDING
FROM NW TO SE...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ONLY IN THE EASTERN MTS BY
THE OUTSET OF THE FORECAST PERIOD 00Z TUE AS THE TROUGH AXIS
CONTINUES EAST.

BRIEF UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
FURTHER EAST...TAKING MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WITH IT. RIVER VALLEY FOG
SHOULD BE A DECENT BET IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS WITH A CALM NIGHT.
FURTHER EAST MAY ACTUALLY CONTINUE TO SEE SOME LLVL STRATUS VERSUS
FOG HOWEVER.

UPPER RIDGE IS QUICKLY REPLACED TUESDAY AS ANOTHER STOUT CLOSED
500MB LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SE-WARD TOWARDS THE EASTERN
LAKE ERIE REGION BY 00Z WED. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED...THE BETTER
MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SYSTEM ITSELF. WILL KEEP INHERITED SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE POPS HOWEVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE PRESENT BELOW A STOUT CAP
AROUND THE 600MB-700MB RANGE. SAME CAP SHOULD ALSO LIMIT ANY
VERTICAL GROWTH TO AROUND 16KFT-18KFT AND THUS...CONTINUED TO LEAVE
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS PER LATEST DATA MADE TO PREV FCST MINS/MAXES
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S FOR THE LOWLANDS AND
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S LOWLANDS STILL LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF THE AREA AT THE START OFF THE PERIOD MOVES AWAY
TO THE E TUE NT INTO WED.  HAVE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE N
MOVING E TUE NT ALONG WEAK SFC FRONT.  MODEST MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL
CAP SHOULD PRECLUDE THUNDER AS LIGHT FLOW BENEATH THE CAP SUGGESTS
WEAK UPDRAFTS.  UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS LATE WED INTO THU NT
FOR A PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER...WITH COOLER AIR MOSTLY LOCKED UP
IN CANADA DURING THIS TIME.

THIS CHANGES AS FULL LATITUDE L/W TROUGH MOVES EWD OUT OF THE
ROCKIES WED AND THU AND EVENTUALLY SETS UP OVER THE ERN CONUS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.  SOUTHERN STREAM LEAD S/W TROUGH APPROACHES THU
NT...WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT THU NT.
MODELS DIFFER ON ORIENTATION OF THIS FEATURE BUT ALL SUGGEST
FORCING GETTING OUT AHEAD OF THE SFC COLD FRONT.

BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MET FOR LOWS TUE NT AND MET STRAIGHT UP
FOR HIGHS WED.  LOWS WED AND THU NTS AND HIGHS WED WERE CLOSE TO
BIAS CORRECTED BLENDS AND LOOKED GOOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
L/W TROUGH SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA THIS PERIOD.  RAIN IS MOST
LIKELY FRI AS LEAD SRN STREAM S/W TROUGH CROSSES JUST OUT AHEAD OF
SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH IS DRIVEN BY MID STREAM S/W PIVOTING THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FRI...DRIVING THE SFC COLD
FRONT THROUGH LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

STRONG FLOW...FORCING...LAST MINUTE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND LATE DAY TIMING SHOULD SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER...ALTHOUGH
A MITIGATING FACTOR IS THE LEAD SRN STREAM S/W...WHICH BRINGS CLOUDS
AND RAIN ACROSS EARLIER IN THE DAY.

A HIGH OF MAINLY PACIFIC ORIGIN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT
INITIALLY...BRINGING ABOUT A FAIR...COOL WEEKEND.  A REINFORCING
UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AND SFC FRONT CROSS MON...WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...AND THEN EVEN COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BLENDED IN GFS BASED GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS FRI AND THEN MAINLY WPC FOR
LOWS AND HIGHS BEYOND THAT...MOST CHANGES TO LOWER VALUES BUT NOT BY
MUCH.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECTING A QUICK CHANGE OF WIND DIRECTION AT CRW FROM A STRAY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. SHOULD BE OVER SHORTLY AFTER THE OB TIME AT THE
TOP OF THE HOUR.

EXPECTING CLOUDS TO DECREASE TONIGHT TO ALLOW FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG
DEVELOPMENT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR LATE
DEVELOPMENT OF SAID FOG CONDITIONS. EXPECT FOG TO LIFT AFTER 13Z
TUESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH DURING THE DAY...MEDIUM OVERNIGHT.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RIVER/VALLEY FOG TIMING AND DENSITY MAY VARY
OVERNIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  TUE 09/30/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    L    L    L    L    L    L

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/50
NEAR TERM...50/26
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...26








000
FXUS61 KRLX 300230
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1030 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER TROUGH EXITS THIS EVENING.  ANOTHER CROSSES NORTH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES FRIDAY.  COOL HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS NEXT WEEKEND.  REINFORCING COLD FRONT NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH UPPER
TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER AT THIS TIME PER LATEST VAD WIND
PROFILER DATA. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP MAINLY SE OHIO
AND POINTS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE I64 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON ENDING
FROM NW TO SE...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ONLY IN THE EASTERN MTS BY
THE OUTSET OF THE FORECAST PERIOD 00Z TUE AS THE TROUGH AXIS
CONTINUES EAST.

BRIEF UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
FURTHER EAST...TAKING MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WITH IT. RIVER VALLEY FOG
SHOULD BE A DECENT BET IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS WITH A CALM NIGHT.
FURTHER EAST MAY ACTUALLY CONTINUE TO SEE SOME LLVL STRATUS VERSUS
FOG HOWEVER.

UPPER RIDGE IS QUICKLY REPLACED TUESDAY AS ANOTHER STOUT CLOSED
500MB LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SE-WARD TOWARDS THE EASTERN
LAKE ERIE REGION BY 00Z WED. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED...THE BETTER
MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SYSTEM ITSELF. WILL KEEP INHERITED SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE POPS HOWEVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE PRESENT BELOW A STOUT CAP
AROUND THE 600MB-700MB RANGE. SAME CAP SHOULD ALSO LIMIT ANY
VERTICAL GROWTH TO AROUND 16KFT-18KFT AND THUS...CONTINUED TO LEAVE
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS PER LATEST DATA MADE TO PREV FCST MINS/MAXES
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S FOR THE LOWLANDS AND
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S LOWLANDS STILL LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF THE AREA AT THE START OFF THE PERIOD MOVES AWAY
TO THE E TUE NT INTO WED.  HAVE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE N
MOVING E TUE NT ALONG WEAK SFC FRONT.  MODEST MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL
CAP SHOULD PRECLUDE THUNDER AS LIGHT FLOW BENEATH THE CAP SUGGESTS
WEAK UPDRAFTS.  UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS LATE WED INTO THU NT
FOR A PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER...WITH COOLER AIR MOSTLY LOCKED UP
IN CANADA DURING THIS TIME.

THIS CHANGES AS FULL LATITUDE L/W TROUGH MOVES EWD OUT OF THE
ROCKIES WED AND THU AND EVENTUALLY SETS UP OVER THE ERN CONUS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.  SOUTHERN STREAM LEAD S/W TROUGH APPROACHES THU
NT...WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT THU NT.
MODELS DIFFER ON ORIENTATION OF THIS FEATURE BUT ALL SUGGEST
FORCING GETTING OUT AHEAD OF THE SFC COLD FRONT.

BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MET FOR LOWS TUE NT AND MET STRAIGHT UP
FOR HIGHS WED.  LOWS WED AND THU NTS AND HIGHS WED WERE CLOSE TO
BIAS CORRECTED BLENDS AND LOOKED GOOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
L/W TROUGH SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA THIS PERIOD.  RAIN IS MOST
LIKELY FRI AS LEAD SRN STREAM S/W TROUGH CROSSES JUST OUT AHEAD OF
SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH IS DRIVEN BY MID STREAM S/W PIVOTING THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FRI...DRIVING THE SFC COLD
FRONT THROUGH LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

STRONG FLOW...FORCING...LAST MINUTE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND LATE DAY TIMING SHOULD SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER...ALTHOUGH
A MITIGATING FACTOR IS THE LEAD SRN STREAM S/W...WHICH BRINGS CLOUDS
AND RAIN ACROSS EARLIER IN THE DAY.

A HIGH OF MAINLY PACIFIC ORIGIN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT
INITIALLY...BRINGING ABOUT A FAIR...COOL WEEKEND.  A REINFORCING
UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AND SFC FRONT CROSS MON...WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...AND THEN EVEN COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BLENDED IN GFS BASED GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS FRI AND THEN MAINLY WPC FOR
LOWS AND HIGHS BEYOND THAT...MOST CHANGES TO LOWER VALUES BUT NOT BY
MUCH.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECTING A QUICK CHANGE OF WIND DIRECTION AT CRW FROM A STRAY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. SHOULD BE OVER SHORTLY AFTER THE OB TIME AT THE
TOP OF THE HOUR.

EXPECTING CLOUDS TO DECREASE TONIGHT TO ALLOW FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG
DEVELOPMENT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR LATE
DEVELOPMENT OF SAID FOG CONDITIONS. EXPECT FOG TO LIFT AFTER 13Z
TUESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH DURING THE DAY...MEDIUM OVERNIGHT.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RIVER/VALLEY FOG TIMING AND DENSITY MAY VARY
OVERNIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  TUE 09/30/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    L    L    L    L    L    L

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/50
NEAR TERM...50/26
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS61 KRLX 292329
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
729 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER TROUGH EXITS THIS EVENING.  ANOTHER CROSSES NORTH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES FRIDAY.  COOL HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS NEXT WEEKEND.  REINFORCING COLD FRONT NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATE...
NO CHANGES OF NOTE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. STRAY CONVECTION
DYING DOWN...BUT TAKING ITS TIME IN DOING SO. SHOULD GET A BRIEF
WIND GUST BELOW 20KTS FROM AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF KANAWHA COUNTY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH UPPER
TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER AT THIS TIME PER LATEST VAD WIND
PROFILER DATA. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP MAINLY SE OHIO
AND POINTS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE I64 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON ENDING
FROM NW TO SE...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ONLY IN THE EASTERN MTS BY
THE OUTSET OF THE FORECAST PERIOD 00Z TUE AS THE TROUGH AXIS
CONTINUES EAST.

BRIEF UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
FURTHER EAST...TAKING MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WITH IT. RIVER VALLEY FOG
SHOULD BE A DECENT BET IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS WITH A CALM NIGHT.
FURTHER EAST MAY ACTUALLY CONTINUE TO SEE SOME LLVL STRATUS VERSUS
FOG HOWEVER.

UPPER RIDGE IS QUICKLY REPLACED TUESDAY AS ANOTHER STOUT CLOSED
500MB LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SE-WARD TOWARDS THE EASTERN
LAKE ERIE REGION BY 00Z WED. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED...THE BETTER
MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SYSTEM ITSELF. WILL KEEP INHERITED SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE POPS HOWEVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE PRESENT BELOW A STOUT CAP
AROUND THE 600MB-700MB RANGE. SAME CAP SHOULD ALSO LIMIT ANY
VERTICAL GROWTH TO AROUND 16KFT-18KFT AND THUS...CONTINUED TO LEAVE
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS PER LATEST DATA MADE TO PREV FCST MINS/MAXES
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S FOR THE LOWLANDS AND
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S LOWLANDS STILL LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF THE AREA AT THE START OFF THE PERIOD MOVES AWAY
TO THE E TUE NT INTO WED.  HAVE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE N
MOVING E TUE NT ALONG WEAK SFC FRONT.  MODEST MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL
CAP SHOULD PRECLUDE THUNDER AS LIGHT FLOW BENEATH THE CAP SUGGESTS
WEAK UPDRAFTS.  UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS LATE WED INTO THU NT
FOR A PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER...WITH COOLER AIR MOSTLY LOCKED UP
IN CANADA DURING THIS TIME.

THIS CHANGES AS FULL LATITUDE L/W TROUGH MOVES EWD OUT OF THE
ROCKIES WED AND THU AND EVENTUALLY SETS UP OVER THE ERN CONUS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.  SOUTHERN STREAM LEAD S/W TROUGH APPROACHES THU
NT...WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT THU NT.
MODELS DIFFER ON ORIENTATION OF THIS FEATURE BUT ALL SUGGEST
FORCING GETTING OUT AHEAD OF THE SFC COLD FRONT.

BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MET FOR LOWS TUE NT AND MET STRAIGHT UP
FOR HIGHS WED.  LOWS WED AND THU NTS AND HIGHS WED WERE CLOSE TO
BIAS CORRECTED BLENDS AND LOOKED GOOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
L/W TROUGH SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA THIS PERIOD.  RAIN IS MOST
LIKELY FRI AS LEAD SRN STREAM S/W TROUGH CROSSES JUST OUT AHEAD OF
SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH IS DRIVEN BY MID STREAM S/W PIVOTING THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FRI...DRIVING THE SFC COLD
FRONT THROUGH LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

STRONG FLOW...FORCING...LAST MINUTE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND LATE DAY TIMING SHOULD SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER...ALTHOUGH
A MITIGATING FACTOR IS THE LEAD SRN STREAM S/W...WHICH BRINGS CLOUDS
AND RAIN ACROSS EARLIER IN THE DAY.

A HIGH OF MAINLY PACIFIC ORIGIN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT
INITIALLY...BRINGING ABOUT A FAIR...COOL WEEKEND.  A REINFORCING
UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AND SFC FRONT CROSS MON...WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...AND THEN EVEN COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BLENDED IN GFS BASED GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS FRI AND THEN MAINLY WPC FOR
LOWS AND HIGHS BEYOND THAT...MOST CHANGES TO LOWER VALUES BUT NOT BY
MUCH.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECTING A QUICK CHANGE OF WIND DIRECTION AT CRW FROM A STRAY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. SHOULD BE OVER SHORTLY AFTER THE OB TIME AT THE
TOP OF THE HOUR.

EXPECTING CLOUDS TO DECREASE TONIGHT TO ALLOW FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG
DEVELOPMENT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR LATE
DEVELOPMENT OF SAID FOG CONDITIONS. EXPECT FOG TO LIFT AFTER 13Z
TUESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH DURING THE DAY...MEDIUM OVERNIGHT.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RIVER/VALLEY FOG TIMING AND DENSITY MAY VARY
OVERNIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/50
NEAR TERM...50/26
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...26








000
FXUS61 KRLX 292329
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
729 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER TROUGH EXITS THIS EVENING.  ANOTHER CROSSES NORTH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES FRIDAY.  COOL HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS NEXT WEEKEND.  REINFORCING COLD FRONT NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATE...
NO CHANGES OF NOTE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. STRAY CONVECTION
DYING DOWN...BUT TAKING ITS TIME IN DOING SO. SHOULD GET A BRIEF
WIND GUST BELOW 20KTS FROM AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF KANAWHA COUNTY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH UPPER
TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER AT THIS TIME PER LATEST VAD WIND
PROFILER DATA. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP MAINLY SE OHIO
AND POINTS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE I64 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON ENDING
FROM NW TO SE...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ONLY IN THE EASTERN MTS BY
THE OUTSET OF THE FORECAST PERIOD 00Z TUE AS THE TROUGH AXIS
CONTINUES EAST.

BRIEF UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
FURTHER EAST...TAKING MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WITH IT. RIVER VALLEY FOG
SHOULD BE A DECENT BET IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS WITH A CALM NIGHT.
FURTHER EAST MAY ACTUALLY CONTINUE TO SEE SOME LLVL STRATUS VERSUS
FOG HOWEVER.

UPPER RIDGE IS QUICKLY REPLACED TUESDAY AS ANOTHER STOUT CLOSED
500MB LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SE-WARD TOWARDS THE EASTERN
LAKE ERIE REGION BY 00Z WED. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED...THE BETTER
MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SYSTEM ITSELF. WILL KEEP INHERITED SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE POPS HOWEVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE PRESENT BELOW A STOUT CAP
AROUND THE 600MB-700MB RANGE. SAME CAP SHOULD ALSO LIMIT ANY
VERTICAL GROWTH TO AROUND 16KFT-18KFT AND THUS...CONTINUED TO LEAVE
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS PER LATEST DATA MADE TO PREV FCST MINS/MAXES
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S FOR THE LOWLANDS AND
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S LOWLANDS STILL LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF THE AREA AT THE START OFF THE PERIOD MOVES AWAY
TO THE E TUE NT INTO WED.  HAVE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE N
MOVING E TUE NT ALONG WEAK SFC FRONT.  MODEST MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL
CAP SHOULD PRECLUDE THUNDER AS LIGHT FLOW BENEATH THE CAP SUGGESTS
WEAK UPDRAFTS.  UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS LATE WED INTO THU NT
FOR A PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER...WITH COOLER AIR MOSTLY LOCKED UP
IN CANADA DURING THIS TIME.

THIS CHANGES AS FULL LATITUDE L/W TROUGH MOVES EWD OUT OF THE
ROCKIES WED AND THU AND EVENTUALLY SETS UP OVER THE ERN CONUS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.  SOUTHERN STREAM LEAD S/W TROUGH APPROACHES THU
NT...WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT THU NT.
MODELS DIFFER ON ORIENTATION OF THIS FEATURE BUT ALL SUGGEST
FORCING GETTING OUT AHEAD OF THE SFC COLD FRONT.

BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MET FOR LOWS TUE NT AND MET STRAIGHT UP
FOR HIGHS WED.  LOWS WED AND THU NTS AND HIGHS WED WERE CLOSE TO
BIAS CORRECTED BLENDS AND LOOKED GOOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
L/W TROUGH SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA THIS PERIOD.  RAIN IS MOST
LIKELY FRI AS LEAD SRN STREAM S/W TROUGH CROSSES JUST OUT AHEAD OF
SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH IS DRIVEN BY MID STREAM S/W PIVOTING THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FRI...DRIVING THE SFC COLD
FRONT THROUGH LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

STRONG FLOW...FORCING...LAST MINUTE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND LATE DAY TIMING SHOULD SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER...ALTHOUGH
A MITIGATING FACTOR IS THE LEAD SRN STREAM S/W...WHICH BRINGS CLOUDS
AND RAIN ACROSS EARLIER IN THE DAY.

A HIGH OF MAINLY PACIFIC ORIGIN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT
INITIALLY...BRINGING ABOUT A FAIR...COOL WEEKEND.  A REINFORCING
UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AND SFC FRONT CROSS MON...WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...AND THEN EVEN COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BLENDED IN GFS BASED GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS FRI AND THEN MAINLY WPC FOR
LOWS AND HIGHS BEYOND THAT...MOST CHANGES TO LOWER VALUES BUT NOT BY
MUCH.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECTING A QUICK CHANGE OF WIND DIRECTION AT CRW FROM A STRAY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. SHOULD BE OVER SHORTLY AFTER THE OB TIME AT THE
TOP OF THE HOUR.

EXPECTING CLOUDS TO DECREASE TONIGHT TO ALLOW FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG
DEVELOPMENT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR LATE
DEVELOPMENT OF SAID FOG CONDITIONS. EXPECT FOG TO LIFT AFTER 13Z
TUESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH DURING THE DAY...MEDIUM OVERNIGHT.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RIVER/VALLEY FOG TIMING AND DENSITY MAY VARY
OVERNIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/50
NEAR TERM...50/26
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...26








000
FXUS61 KRLX 292329
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
729 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER TROUGH EXITS THIS EVENING.  ANOTHER CROSSES NORTH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES FRIDAY.  COOL HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS NEXT WEEKEND.  REINFORCING COLD FRONT NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATE...
NO CHANGES OF NOTE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. STRAY CONVECTION
DYING DOWN...BUT TAKING ITS TIME IN DOING SO. SHOULD GET A BRIEF
WIND GUST BELOW 20KTS FROM AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF KANAWHA COUNTY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH UPPER
TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER AT THIS TIME PER LATEST VAD WIND
PROFILER DATA. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP MAINLY SE OHIO
AND POINTS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE I64 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON ENDING
FROM NW TO SE...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ONLY IN THE EASTERN MTS BY
THE OUTSET OF THE FORECAST PERIOD 00Z TUE AS THE TROUGH AXIS
CONTINUES EAST.

BRIEF UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
FURTHER EAST...TAKING MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WITH IT. RIVER VALLEY FOG
SHOULD BE A DECENT BET IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS WITH A CALM NIGHT.
FURTHER EAST MAY ACTUALLY CONTINUE TO SEE SOME LLVL STRATUS VERSUS
FOG HOWEVER.

UPPER RIDGE IS QUICKLY REPLACED TUESDAY AS ANOTHER STOUT CLOSED
500MB LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SE-WARD TOWARDS THE EASTERN
LAKE ERIE REGION BY 00Z WED. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED...THE BETTER
MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SYSTEM ITSELF. WILL KEEP INHERITED SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE POPS HOWEVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE PRESENT BELOW A STOUT CAP
AROUND THE 600MB-700MB RANGE. SAME CAP SHOULD ALSO LIMIT ANY
VERTICAL GROWTH TO AROUND 16KFT-18KFT AND THUS...CONTINUED TO LEAVE
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS PER LATEST DATA MADE TO PREV FCST MINS/MAXES
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S FOR THE LOWLANDS AND
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S LOWLANDS STILL LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF THE AREA AT THE START OFF THE PERIOD MOVES AWAY
TO THE E TUE NT INTO WED.  HAVE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE N
MOVING E TUE NT ALONG WEAK SFC FRONT.  MODEST MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL
CAP SHOULD PRECLUDE THUNDER AS LIGHT FLOW BENEATH THE CAP SUGGESTS
WEAK UPDRAFTS.  UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS LATE WED INTO THU NT
FOR A PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER...WITH COOLER AIR MOSTLY LOCKED UP
IN CANADA DURING THIS TIME.

THIS CHANGES AS FULL LATITUDE L/W TROUGH MOVES EWD OUT OF THE
ROCKIES WED AND THU AND EVENTUALLY SETS UP OVER THE ERN CONUS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.  SOUTHERN STREAM LEAD S/W TROUGH APPROACHES THU
NT...WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT THU NT.
MODELS DIFFER ON ORIENTATION OF THIS FEATURE BUT ALL SUGGEST
FORCING GETTING OUT AHEAD OF THE SFC COLD FRONT.

BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MET FOR LOWS TUE NT AND MET STRAIGHT UP
FOR HIGHS WED.  LOWS WED AND THU NTS AND HIGHS WED WERE CLOSE TO
BIAS CORRECTED BLENDS AND LOOKED GOOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
L/W TROUGH SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA THIS PERIOD.  RAIN IS MOST
LIKELY FRI AS LEAD SRN STREAM S/W TROUGH CROSSES JUST OUT AHEAD OF
SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH IS DRIVEN BY MID STREAM S/W PIVOTING THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FRI...DRIVING THE SFC COLD
FRONT THROUGH LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

STRONG FLOW...FORCING...LAST MINUTE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND LATE DAY TIMING SHOULD SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER...ALTHOUGH
A MITIGATING FACTOR IS THE LEAD SRN STREAM S/W...WHICH BRINGS CLOUDS
AND RAIN ACROSS EARLIER IN THE DAY.

A HIGH OF MAINLY PACIFIC ORIGIN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT
INITIALLY...BRINGING ABOUT A FAIR...COOL WEEKEND.  A REINFORCING
UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AND SFC FRONT CROSS MON...WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...AND THEN EVEN COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BLENDED IN GFS BASED GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS FRI AND THEN MAINLY WPC FOR
LOWS AND HIGHS BEYOND THAT...MOST CHANGES TO LOWER VALUES BUT NOT BY
MUCH.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECTING A QUICK CHANGE OF WIND DIRECTION AT CRW FROM A STRAY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. SHOULD BE OVER SHORTLY AFTER THE OB TIME AT THE
TOP OF THE HOUR.

EXPECTING CLOUDS TO DECREASE TONIGHT TO ALLOW FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG
DEVELOPMENT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR LATE
DEVELOPMENT OF SAID FOG CONDITIONS. EXPECT FOG TO LIFT AFTER 13Z
TUESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH DURING THE DAY...MEDIUM OVERNIGHT.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RIVER/VALLEY FOG TIMING AND DENSITY MAY VARY
OVERNIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/50
NEAR TERM...50/26
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...26








000
FXUS61 KRLX 292329
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
729 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER TROUGH EXITS THIS EVENING.  ANOTHER CROSSES NORTH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES FRIDAY.  COOL HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS NEXT WEEKEND.  REINFORCING COLD FRONT NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATE...
NO CHANGES OF NOTE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. STRAY CONVECTION
DYING DOWN...BUT TAKING ITS TIME IN DOING SO. SHOULD GET A BRIEF
WIND GUST BELOW 20KTS FROM AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF KANAWHA COUNTY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH UPPER
TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER AT THIS TIME PER LATEST VAD WIND
PROFILER DATA. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP MAINLY SE OHIO
AND POINTS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE I64 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON ENDING
FROM NW TO SE...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ONLY IN THE EASTERN MTS BY
THE OUTSET OF THE FORECAST PERIOD 00Z TUE AS THE TROUGH AXIS
CONTINUES EAST.

BRIEF UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
FURTHER EAST...TAKING MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WITH IT. RIVER VALLEY FOG
SHOULD BE A DECENT BET IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS WITH A CALM NIGHT.
FURTHER EAST MAY ACTUALLY CONTINUE TO SEE SOME LLVL STRATUS VERSUS
FOG HOWEVER.

UPPER RIDGE IS QUICKLY REPLACED TUESDAY AS ANOTHER STOUT CLOSED
500MB LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SE-WARD TOWARDS THE EASTERN
LAKE ERIE REGION BY 00Z WED. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED...THE BETTER
MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SYSTEM ITSELF. WILL KEEP INHERITED SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE POPS HOWEVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE PRESENT BELOW A STOUT CAP
AROUND THE 600MB-700MB RANGE. SAME CAP SHOULD ALSO LIMIT ANY
VERTICAL GROWTH TO AROUND 16KFT-18KFT AND THUS...CONTINUED TO LEAVE
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS PER LATEST DATA MADE TO PREV FCST MINS/MAXES
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S FOR THE LOWLANDS AND
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S LOWLANDS STILL LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF THE AREA AT THE START OFF THE PERIOD MOVES AWAY
TO THE E TUE NT INTO WED.  HAVE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE N
MOVING E TUE NT ALONG WEAK SFC FRONT.  MODEST MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL
CAP SHOULD PRECLUDE THUNDER AS LIGHT FLOW BENEATH THE CAP SUGGESTS
WEAK UPDRAFTS.  UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS LATE WED INTO THU NT
FOR A PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER...WITH COOLER AIR MOSTLY LOCKED UP
IN CANADA DURING THIS TIME.

THIS CHANGES AS FULL LATITUDE L/W TROUGH MOVES EWD OUT OF THE
ROCKIES WED AND THU AND EVENTUALLY SETS UP OVER THE ERN CONUS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.  SOUTHERN STREAM LEAD S/W TROUGH APPROACHES THU
NT...WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT THU NT.
MODELS DIFFER ON ORIENTATION OF THIS FEATURE BUT ALL SUGGEST
FORCING GETTING OUT AHEAD OF THE SFC COLD FRONT.

BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MET FOR LOWS TUE NT AND MET STRAIGHT UP
FOR HIGHS WED.  LOWS WED AND THU NTS AND HIGHS WED WERE CLOSE TO
BIAS CORRECTED BLENDS AND LOOKED GOOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
L/W TROUGH SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA THIS PERIOD.  RAIN IS MOST
LIKELY FRI AS LEAD SRN STREAM S/W TROUGH CROSSES JUST OUT AHEAD OF
SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH IS DRIVEN BY MID STREAM S/W PIVOTING THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FRI...DRIVING THE SFC COLD
FRONT THROUGH LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

STRONG FLOW...FORCING...LAST MINUTE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND LATE DAY TIMING SHOULD SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER...ALTHOUGH
A MITIGATING FACTOR IS THE LEAD SRN STREAM S/W...WHICH BRINGS CLOUDS
AND RAIN ACROSS EARLIER IN THE DAY.

A HIGH OF MAINLY PACIFIC ORIGIN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT
INITIALLY...BRINGING ABOUT A FAIR...COOL WEEKEND.  A REINFORCING
UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AND SFC FRONT CROSS MON...WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...AND THEN EVEN COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BLENDED IN GFS BASED GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS FRI AND THEN MAINLY WPC FOR
LOWS AND HIGHS BEYOND THAT...MOST CHANGES TO LOWER VALUES BUT NOT BY
MUCH.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECTING A QUICK CHANGE OF WIND DIRECTION AT CRW FROM A STRAY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. SHOULD BE OVER SHORTLY AFTER THE OB TIME AT THE
TOP OF THE HOUR.

EXPECTING CLOUDS TO DECREASE TONIGHT TO ALLOW FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG
DEVELOPMENT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR LATE
DEVELOPMENT OF SAID FOG CONDITIONS. EXPECT FOG TO LIFT AFTER 13Z
TUESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH DURING THE DAY...MEDIUM OVERNIGHT.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RIVER/VALLEY FOG TIMING AND DENSITY MAY VARY
OVERNIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/50
NEAR TERM...50/26
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...26








000
FXUS61 KRLX 291849
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
248 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER TROUGH EXITS THIS EVENING.  ANOTHER CROSSES NORTH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES FRIDAY.  COOL HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS NEXT WEEKEND.  REINFORCING COLD FRONT NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH UPPER
TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER AT THIS TIME PER LATEST VAD WIND
PROFILER DATA. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP MAINLY SE OHIO
AND POINTS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE I64 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON ENDING
FROM NW TO SE...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ONLY IN THE EASTERN MTS BY
THE OUTSET OF THE FORECAST PERIOD 00Z TUE AS THE TROUGH AXIS
CONTINUES EAST.

BRIEF UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
FURTHER EAST...TAKING MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WITH IT. RIVER VALLEY FOG
SHOULD BE A DECENT BET IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS WITH A CALM NIGHT.
FURTHER EAST MAY ACTUALLY CONTINUE TO SEE SOME LLVL STRATUS VERSUS
FOG HOWEVER.

UPPER RIDGE IS QUICKLY REPLACED TUESDAY AS ANOTHER STOUT CLOSED
500MB LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SE-WARD TOWARDS THE EASTERN
LAKE ERIE REGION BY 00Z WED. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED...THE BETTER
MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SYSTEM ITSELF. WILL KEEP INHERITED SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE POPS HOWEVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE PRESENT BELOW A STOUT CAP
AROUND THE 600MB-700MB RANGE. SAME CAP SHOULD ALSO LIMIT ANY
VERTICAL GROWTH TO AROUND 16KFT-18KFT AND THUS...CONTINUED TO LEAVE
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS PER LATEST DATA MADE TO PREV FCST MINS/MAXES
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S FOR THE LOWLANDS AND
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S LOWLANDS STILL LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF THE AREA AT THE START OPF THE PERIOD MOVES AWAY
TO THE E TUE NT INTO WED.  HAVE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE N
MOVING E TUE NT ALONG WEAK SFC FRONT.  MODEST MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL
CAP SHOULD PRECLUDE THUNDER AS LIGHT FLOW BENEATH THE CAP SUGGESTS
WEAK UPDRAFTS.  UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS LATE WED INTO THU NT
FOR A PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER...WITH COOLER AIR MOSTLY LOCKED UP
IN CANADA DURING THIS TIME.

THIS CHANGES AS FULL LATITUDE L/W TROUGH MOVES EWD OUT OF THE
ROCKIES WED AND THU AND EVENTUALLY SETS UP OVER THE ERN CONUS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.  SOUTHERN STREAM LEAD S/W TROUGH APPROACHES THU
NT...WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT THU NT.
MODELS DIFFER ON ORIENTATION OF THIS FEATURE BUT ALL SUGGEST
FORCING GETTING OUT AHEAD OF THE SFC COLD FRONT.

BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MET FOR LOWS TUE NT AND MET STRAIGHT UP
FOR HIGHS WED.  LOWS WED AND THU NTS AND HIGHS WED WERE CLOSE TO
BIAS CORRECTED BLENDS AND LOOKED GOOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
L/W TROUGH SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA THIS PERIOD.  RAIN IS MOST
LIKELY FRI AS LEAD SRN STREAM S/W TROUGH CROSSES JUST OUT AHEAD OF
SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH IS DRIVEN BY MID STREAM S/W PIVOTING THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FRI...DRIVING THE SFC COLD
FRONT THROUGH LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

STRONG FLOW...FORCING...LAST MINUTE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND LATE DAY TIMING SHOULD SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER...ALTHOUGH
A MITIGATING FACTOR IS THE LEAD SRN STREAM S/W...WHICH BRINGS CLOUDS
AND RAIN ACROSS EARLIER IN THE DAY.

A HIGH OF MAINLY PACIFIC ORIGIN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT
INITIALLY...BRINGING ABOUT A FAIR...COOL WEEKEND.  A REINFORCING
UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AND SFC FRONT CROSS MON...WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...AND THEN EVEN COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BLENDED IN GFS BASED GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS FRI AND THEN MAINLY WPC FOR
LOWS AND HIGHS BEYOND THAT...MOST CHANGES TO LOWER VALUES BUT NOT BY
MUCH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW LIGHT/MODERATE SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR...WITH LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT TO FLIGHT
CATEGORIES AND EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL TODAY. STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY TONIGHT REGARDING FOG FORMATION. RIVER VALLEY FOG
SHOULD BE A GOOD BET ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...BUT FARTHER EAST COULD
SEE FOG...OR POSSIBLY LOW STRATUS INSTEAD. LIGHT W/SW FLOW WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH DURING THE DAY...MEDIUM OVERNIGHT.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RIVER/VALLEY FOG TIMING AND DENSITY MAY VARY
OVERNIGHT. FOG/LOW STRATUS MAY VARY TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...50






000
FXUS61 KRLX 291849
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
248 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER TROUGH EXITS THIS EVENING.  ANOTHER CROSSES NORTH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES FRIDAY.  COOL HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS NEXT WEEKEND.  REINFORCING COLD FRONT NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH UPPER
TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER AT THIS TIME PER LATEST VAD WIND
PROFILER DATA. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP MAINLY SE OHIO
AND POINTS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE I64 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON ENDING
FROM NW TO SE...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ONLY IN THE EASTERN MTS BY
THE OUTSET OF THE FORECAST PERIOD 00Z TUE AS THE TROUGH AXIS
CONTINUES EAST.

BRIEF UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
FURTHER EAST...TAKING MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WITH IT. RIVER VALLEY FOG
SHOULD BE A DECENT BET IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS WITH A CALM NIGHT.
FURTHER EAST MAY ACTUALLY CONTINUE TO SEE SOME LLVL STRATUS VERSUS
FOG HOWEVER.

UPPER RIDGE IS QUICKLY REPLACED TUESDAY AS ANOTHER STOUT CLOSED
500MB LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SE-WARD TOWARDS THE EASTERN
LAKE ERIE REGION BY 00Z WED. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED...THE BETTER
MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SYSTEM ITSELF. WILL KEEP INHERITED SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE POPS HOWEVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE PRESENT BELOW A STOUT CAP
AROUND THE 600MB-700MB RANGE. SAME CAP SHOULD ALSO LIMIT ANY
VERTICAL GROWTH TO AROUND 16KFT-18KFT AND THUS...CONTINUED TO LEAVE
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS PER LATEST DATA MADE TO PREV FCST MINS/MAXES
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S FOR THE LOWLANDS AND
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S LOWLANDS STILL LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF THE AREA AT THE START OPF THE PERIOD MOVES AWAY
TO THE E TUE NT INTO WED.  HAVE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE N
MOVING E TUE NT ALONG WEAK SFC FRONT.  MODEST MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL
CAP SHOULD PRECLUDE THUNDER AS LIGHT FLOW BENEATH THE CAP SUGGESTS
WEAK UPDRAFTS.  UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS LATE WED INTO THU NT
FOR A PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER...WITH COOLER AIR MOSTLY LOCKED UP
IN CANADA DURING THIS TIME.

THIS CHANGES AS FULL LATITUDE L/W TROUGH MOVES EWD OUT OF THE
ROCKIES WED AND THU AND EVENTUALLY SETS UP OVER THE ERN CONUS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.  SOUTHERN STREAM LEAD S/W TROUGH APPROACHES THU
NT...WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT THU NT.
MODELS DIFFER ON ORIENTATION OF THIS FEATURE BUT ALL SUGGEST
FORCING GETTING OUT AHEAD OF THE SFC COLD FRONT.

BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MET FOR LOWS TUE NT AND MET STRAIGHT UP
FOR HIGHS WED.  LOWS WED AND THU NTS AND HIGHS WED WERE CLOSE TO
BIAS CORRECTED BLENDS AND LOOKED GOOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
L/W TROUGH SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA THIS PERIOD.  RAIN IS MOST
LIKELY FRI AS LEAD SRN STREAM S/W TROUGH CROSSES JUST OUT AHEAD OF
SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH IS DRIVEN BY MID STREAM S/W PIVOTING THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FRI...DRIVING THE SFC COLD
FRONT THROUGH LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

STRONG FLOW...FORCING...LAST MINUTE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND LATE DAY TIMING SHOULD SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER...ALTHOUGH
A MITIGATING FACTOR IS THE LEAD SRN STREAM S/W...WHICH BRINGS CLOUDS
AND RAIN ACROSS EARLIER IN THE DAY.

A HIGH OF MAINLY PACIFIC ORIGIN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT
INITIALLY...BRINGING ABOUT A FAIR...COOL WEEKEND.  A REINFORCING
UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AND SFC FRONT CROSS MON...WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...AND THEN EVEN COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BLENDED IN GFS BASED GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS FRI AND THEN MAINLY WPC FOR
LOWS AND HIGHS BEYOND THAT...MOST CHANGES TO LOWER VALUES BUT NOT BY
MUCH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW LIGHT/MODERATE SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR...WITH LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT TO FLIGHT
CATEGORIES AND EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL TODAY. STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY TONIGHT REGARDING FOG FORMATION. RIVER VALLEY FOG
SHOULD BE A GOOD BET ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...BUT FARTHER EAST COULD
SEE FOG...OR POSSIBLY LOW STRATUS INSTEAD. LIGHT W/SW FLOW WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH DURING THE DAY...MEDIUM OVERNIGHT.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RIVER/VALLEY FOG TIMING AND DENSITY MAY VARY
OVERNIGHT. FOG/LOW STRATUS MAY VARY TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...50







000
FXUS61 KRLX 291737
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
137 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERN MOISTURE SKIMS SOUTH AS WEAK UPPER TROUGH PASSES TODAY.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONG COLD
FRONT PASSES FRIDAY. IN ITS WAKE...COOLER AIR OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
130 PM UPDATE...A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG AND WEST OF THE I79
CORRIDOR AS EXPECTED...BUT A BIT FURTHER NORTH VERSUS FCST. THUS
INCLUDED AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS MUCH OF THE SE OHIO
ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

1030 AM UPDATE...OVERALL FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH GENERAL AREA
OF PRECIP HAVING EXITED THE FORECAST AREA TO THE EAST WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF POCAHONTAS COUNTY. ADDED IN SOME LOW/MID CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA FOR THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS BATCH OF LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOC WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS.

620 AM UPDATE...INCREASED POPS ALONG EASTERN CWA BORDER EARLY THIS
MORNING BASED ON CURRENT RADAR. ALSO ADDED SPRINKLES ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTHERN CWA...HAD A TRACE HERE AT THE OFFICE FROM A PASSING
BATCH OF SPRINKLES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO OHIO...WITH
RADAR ECHOS MOVING INTO CWA FROM THE SW. NOTHING REAL IMPRESSIVE
WITH THIS...SO ONLY HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY BACK TOWARDS
THE TRI-STATE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A PRETTY GOOD CAP IN
PLACE AROUND 12KFT SO WOULD NOT EXPECT ANY THUNDER...AND EVEN
SHOWERS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEAK 500MB
RIPPLE DROPPING INTO THE OVERALL TROUGH TODAY...AND ALSO SHOW AN
AREA OF DECENT MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA AROUND THE
SAME TIME...SO LINGERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM HTS TO CRW THROUGH
A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AFTERNOON. IN THE END MAY JUST BE PATCHY
SPRINKLES OR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP SOME LATE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES EAST...TAKING THE
MOISTURE WITH IT. BLENDED IN BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS...AND BLENDED MET INTO THE PREVIOUS LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MID/UPPER TROF DROPS SE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY...
SWINGING THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY NIGHT.  A WEAK SURFACE FRONT
WILL LIKELY BE REFLECTED...MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND TRYING TO REACH INTO WEST VIRGINIA TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE 00Z NAM DEPICTS A NICE DEW POINT GRADIENT AT 925 MBS ALONG THIS
FEATURE OF ABOUT 6C.  MOST OF THE MID LEVEL COOLING IN RESPONSE TO
THAT DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO PENNSYLVANIA...RATHER THAN DIVING
SOUTHEAST INTO WV. SO WILL NOT GET TOO EXCITED WITH HIGHER POPS.
WILL SWING SOME 20 AND 30 POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN
RESPONSE TO THAT FEATURE.

THAT DEW POINT GRADIENT SINKS INTO WV FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE
STALLING  THE 00Z GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  THINKING LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTH AND WEST. WILL INCLUDE SOME FOG IN SE OH...NE KY AND SRN WV
FOR DAWN WEDNESDAY.  CONFIDENCE LOWER IN MOUNTAINS AND NORTH.

WITH LIGHT SURFACE AND 925 MB WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL FORECAST MAX
TEMPERATURE BELOW GFS MAV GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS.  STRATUS MAY LINGER
IN THE MORNING FOR AT LEAST SOME COUNTIES.

THE WARMEST DAY STILL APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY. NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE
FROM OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST.  AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...STILL HAVE POPS
INCREASING IN THE WESTERN LOWLANDS BY THE PREDAWN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THIS
WOULD HAVE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLLING THE WEATHER
THURSDAY...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT PROVIDING SOME PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL THEN MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW LIGHT/MODERATE SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR...WITH LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT TO FLIGHT
CATEGORIES AND EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL TODAY. STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY TONIGHT REGARDING FOG FORMATION. RIVER VALLEY FOG
SHOULD BE A GOOD BET ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...BUT FARTHER EAST COULD
SEE FOG...OR POSSIBLY LOW STRATUS INSTEAD. LIGHT W/SW FLOW WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH DURING THE DAY...MEDIUM OVERNIGHT.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RIVER/VALLEY FOG TIMING AND DENSITY MAY VARY
OVERNIGHT. FOG/LOW STRATUS MAY VARY TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ/50
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...50










000
FXUS61 KRLX 291737
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
137 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERN MOISTURE SKIMS SOUTH AS WEAK UPPER TROUGH PASSES TODAY.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONG COLD
FRONT PASSES FRIDAY. IN ITS WAKE...COOLER AIR OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
130 PM UPDATE...A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG AND WEST OF THE I79
CORRIDOR AS EXPECTED...BUT A BIT FURTHER NORTH VERSUS FCST. THUS
INCLUDED AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS MUCH OF THE SE OHIO
ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

1030 AM UPDATE...OVERALL FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH GENERAL AREA
OF PRECIP HAVING EXITED THE FORECAST AREA TO THE EAST WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF POCAHONTAS COUNTY. ADDED IN SOME LOW/MID CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA FOR THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS BATCH OF LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOC WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS.

620 AM UPDATE...INCREASED POPS ALONG EASTERN CWA BORDER EARLY THIS
MORNING BASED ON CURRENT RADAR. ALSO ADDED SPRINKLES ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTHERN CWA...HAD A TRACE HERE AT THE OFFICE FROM A PASSING
BATCH OF SPRINKLES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO OHIO...WITH
RADAR ECHOS MOVING INTO CWA FROM THE SW. NOTHING REAL IMPRESSIVE
WITH THIS...SO ONLY HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY BACK TOWARDS
THE TRI-STATE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A PRETTY GOOD CAP IN
PLACE AROUND 12KFT SO WOULD NOT EXPECT ANY THUNDER...AND EVEN
SHOWERS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEAK 500MB
RIPPLE DROPPING INTO THE OVERALL TROUGH TODAY...AND ALSO SHOW AN
AREA OF DECENT MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA AROUND THE
SAME TIME...SO LINGERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM HTS TO CRW THROUGH
A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AFTERNOON. IN THE END MAY JUST BE PATCHY
SPRINKLES OR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP SOME LATE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES EAST...TAKING THE
MOISTURE WITH IT. BLENDED IN BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS...AND BLENDED MET INTO THE PREVIOUS LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MID/UPPER TROF DROPS SE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY...
SWINGING THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY NIGHT.  A WEAK SURFACE FRONT
WILL LIKELY BE REFLECTED...MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND TRYING TO REACH INTO WEST VIRGINIA TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE 00Z NAM DEPICTS A NICE DEW POINT GRADIENT AT 925 MBS ALONG THIS
FEATURE OF ABOUT 6C.  MOST OF THE MID LEVEL COOLING IN RESPONSE TO
THAT DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO PENNSYLVANIA...RATHER THAN DIVING
SOUTHEAST INTO WV. SO WILL NOT GET TOO EXCITED WITH HIGHER POPS.
WILL SWING SOME 20 AND 30 POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN
RESPONSE TO THAT FEATURE.

THAT DEW POINT GRADIENT SINKS INTO WV FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE
STALLING  THE 00Z GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  THINKING LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTH AND WEST. WILL INCLUDE SOME FOG IN SE OH...NE KY AND SRN WV
FOR DAWN WEDNESDAY.  CONFIDENCE LOWER IN MOUNTAINS AND NORTH.

WITH LIGHT SURFACE AND 925 MB WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL FORECAST MAX
TEMPERATURE BELOW GFS MAV GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS.  STRATUS MAY LINGER
IN THE MORNING FOR AT LEAST SOME COUNTIES.

THE WARMEST DAY STILL APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY. NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE
FROM OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST.  AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...STILL HAVE POPS
INCREASING IN THE WESTERN LOWLANDS BY THE PREDAWN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THIS
WOULD HAVE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLLING THE WEATHER
THURSDAY...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT PROVIDING SOME PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL THEN MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW LIGHT/MODERATE SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR...WITH LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT TO FLIGHT
CATEGORIES AND EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL TODAY. STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY TONIGHT REGARDING FOG FORMATION. RIVER VALLEY FOG
SHOULD BE A GOOD BET ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...BUT FARTHER EAST COULD
SEE FOG...OR POSSIBLY LOW STRATUS INSTEAD. LIGHT W/SW FLOW WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH DURING THE DAY...MEDIUM OVERNIGHT.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RIVER/VALLEY FOG TIMING AND DENSITY MAY VARY
OVERNIGHT. FOG/LOW STRATUS MAY VARY TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ/50
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...50










000
FXUS61 KRLX 291737
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
137 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERN MOISTURE SKIMS SOUTH AS WEAK UPPER TROUGH PASSES TODAY.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONG COLD
FRONT PASSES FRIDAY. IN ITS WAKE...COOLER AIR OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
130 PM UPDATE...A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG AND WEST OF THE I79
CORRIDOR AS EXPECTED...BUT A BIT FURTHER NORTH VERSUS FCST. THUS
INCLUDED AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS MUCH OF THE SE OHIO
ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

1030 AM UPDATE...OVERALL FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH GENERAL AREA
OF PRECIP HAVING EXITED THE FORECAST AREA TO THE EAST WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF POCAHONTAS COUNTY. ADDED IN SOME LOW/MID CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA FOR THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS BATCH OF LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOC WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS.

620 AM UPDATE...INCREASED POPS ALONG EASTERN CWA BORDER EARLY THIS
MORNING BASED ON CURRENT RADAR. ALSO ADDED SPRINKLES ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTHERN CWA...HAD A TRACE HERE AT THE OFFICE FROM A PASSING
BATCH OF SPRINKLES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO OHIO...WITH
RADAR ECHOS MOVING INTO CWA FROM THE SW. NOTHING REAL IMPRESSIVE
WITH THIS...SO ONLY HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY BACK TOWARDS
THE TRI-STATE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A PRETTY GOOD CAP IN
PLACE AROUND 12KFT SO WOULD NOT EXPECT ANY THUNDER...AND EVEN
SHOWERS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEAK 500MB
RIPPLE DROPPING INTO THE OVERALL TROUGH TODAY...AND ALSO SHOW AN
AREA OF DECENT MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA AROUND THE
SAME TIME...SO LINGERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM HTS TO CRW THROUGH
A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AFTERNOON. IN THE END MAY JUST BE PATCHY
SPRINKLES OR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP SOME LATE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES EAST...TAKING THE
MOISTURE WITH IT. BLENDED IN BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS...AND BLENDED MET INTO THE PREVIOUS LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MID/UPPER TROF DROPS SE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY...
SWINGING THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY NIGHT.  A WEAK SURFACE FRONT
WILL LIKELY BE REFLECTED...MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND TRYING TO REACH INTO WEST VIRGINIA TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE 00Z NAM DEPICTS A NICE DEW POINT GRADIENT AT 925 MBS ALONG THIS
FEATURE OF ABOUT 6C.  MOST OF THE MID LEVEL COOLING IN RESPONSE TO
THAT DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO PENNSYLVANIA...RATHER THAN DIVING
SOUTHEAST INTO WV. SO WILL NOT GET TOO EXCITED WITH HIGHER POPS.
WILL SWING SOME 20 AND 30 POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN
RESPONSE TO THAT FEATURE.

THAT DEW POINT GRADIENT SINKS INTO WV FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE
STALLING  THE 00Z GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  THINKING LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTH AND WEST. WILL INCLUDE SOME FOG IN SE OH...NE KY AND SRN WV
FOR DAWN WEDNESDAY.  CONFIDENCE LOWER IN MOUNTAINS AND NORTH.

WITH LIGHT SURFACE AND 925 MB WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL FORECAST MAX
TEMPERATURE BELOW GFS MAV GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS.  STRATUS MAY LINGER
IN THE MORNING FOR AT LEAST SOME COUNTIES.

THE WARMEST DAY STILL APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY. NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE
FROM OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST.  AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...STILL HAVE POPS
INCREASING IN THE WESTERN LOWLANDS BY THE PREDAWN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THIS
WOULD HAVE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLLING THE WEATHER
THURSDAY...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT PROVIDING SOME PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL THEN MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW LIGHT/MODERATE SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR...WITH LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT TO FLIGHT
CATEGORIES AND EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL TODAY. STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY TONIGHT REGARDING FOG FORMATION. RIVER VALLEY FOG
SHOULD BE A GOOD BET ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...BUT FARTHER EAST COULD
SEE FOG...OR POSSIBLY LOW STRATUS INSTEAD. LIGHT W/SW FLOW WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH DURING THE DAY...MEDIUM OVERNIGHT.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RIVER/VALLEY FOG TIMING AND DENSITY MAY VARY
OVERNIGHT. FOG/LOW STRATUS MAY VARY TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ/50
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...50










000
FXUS61 KRLX 291737
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
137 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERN MOISTURE SKIMS SOUTH AS WEAK UPPER TROUGH PASSES TODAY.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONG COLD
FRONT PASSES FRIDAY. IN ITS WAKE...COOLER AIR OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
130 PM UPDATE...A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG AND WEST OF THE I79
CORRIDOR AS EXPECTED...BUT A BIT FURTHER NORTH VERSUS FCST. THUS
INCLUDED AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS MUCH OF THE SE OHIO
ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

1030 AM UPDATE...OVERALL FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH GENERAL AREA
OF PRECIP HAVING EXITED THE FORECAST AREA TO THE EAST WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF POCAHONTAS COUNTY. ADDED IN SOME LOW/MID CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA FOR THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS BATCH OF LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOC WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS.

620 AM UPDATE...INCREASED POPS ALONG EASTERN CWA BORDER EARLY THIS
MORNING BASED ON CURRENT RADAR. ALSO ADDED SPRINKLES ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTHERN CWA...HAD A TRACE HERE AT THE OFFICE FROM A PASSING
BATCH OF SPRINKLES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO OHIO...WITH
RADAR ECHOS MOVING INTO CWA FROM THE SW. NOTHING REAL IMPRESSIVE
WITH THIS...SO ONLY HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY BACK TOWARDS
THE TRI-STATE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A PRETTY GOOD CAP IN
PLACE AROUND 12KFT SO WOULD NOT EXPECT ANY THUNDER...AND EVEN
SHOWERS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEAK 500MB
RIPPLE DROPPING INTO THE OVERALL TROUGH TODAY...AND ALSO SHOW AN
AREA OF DECENT MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA AROUND THE
SAME TIME...SO LINGERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM HTS TO CRW THROUGH
A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AFTERNOON. IN THE END MAY JUST BE PATCHY
SPRINKLES OR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP SOME LATE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES EAST...TAKING THE
MOISTURE WITH IT. BLENDED IN BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS...AND BLENDED MET INTO THE PREVIOUS LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MID/UPPER TROF DROPS SE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY...
SWINGING THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY NIGHT.  A WEAK SURFACE FRONT
WILL LIKELY BE REFLECTED...MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND TRYING TO REACH INTO WEST VIRGINIA TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE 00Z NAM DEPICTS A NICE DEW POINT GRADIENT AT 925 MBS ALONG THIS
FEATURE OF ABOUT 6C.  MOST OF THE MID LEVEL COOLING IN RESPONSE TO
THAT DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO PENNSYLVANIA...RATHER THAN DIVING
SOUTHEAST INTO WV. SO WILL NOT GET TOO EXCITED WITH HIGHER POPS.
WILL SWING SOME 20 AND 30 POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN
RESPONSE TO THAT FEATURE.

THAT DEW POINT GRADIENT SINKS INTO WV FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE
STALLING  THE 00Z GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  THINKING LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTH AND WEST. WILL INCLUDE SOME FOG IN SE OH...NE KY AND SRN WV
FOR DAWN WEDNESDAY.  CONFIDENCE LOWER IN MOUNTAINS AND NORTH.

WITH LIGHT SURFACE AND 925 MB WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL FORECAST MAX
TEMPERATURE BELOW GFS MAV GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS.  STRATUS MAY LINGER
IN THE MORNING FOR AT LEAST SOME COUNTIES.

THE WARMEST DAY STILL APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY. NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE
FROM OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST.  AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...STILL HAVE POPS
INCREASING IN THE WESTERN LOWLANDS BY THE PREDAWN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THIS
WOULD HAVE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLLING THE WEATHER
THURSDAY...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT PROVIDING SOME PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL THEN MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW LIGHT/MODERATE SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR...WITH LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT TO FLIGHT
CATEGORIES AND EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL TODAY. STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY TONIGHT REGARDING FOG FORMATION. RIVER VALLEY FOG
SHOULD BE A GOOD BET ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...BUT FARTHER EAST COULD
SEE FOG...OR POSSIBLY LOW STRATUS INSTEAD. LIGHT W/SW FLOW WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH DURING THE DAY...MEDIUM OVERNIGHT.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RIVER/VALLEY FOG TIMING AND DENSITY MAY VARY
OVERNIGHT. FOG/LOW STRATUS MAY VARY TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ/50
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...50










000
FXUS61 KRLX 291437
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1037 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERN MOISTURE SKIMS SOUTH AS WEAK UPPER TROUGH PASSES TODAY.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONG COLD
FRONT PASSES FRIDAY. IN ITS WAKE...COOLER AIR OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...OVERALL FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH GENERAL AREA
OF PRECIP HAVING EXITED THE FORECAST AREA TO THE EAST WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF POCAHONTAS COUNTY. ADDED IN SOME LOW/MID CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA FOR THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS BATCH OF LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOC WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS.

620 AM UPDATE...INCREASED POPS ALONG EASTERN CWA BORDER EARLY THIS
MORNING BASED ON CURRENT RADAR. ALSO ADDED SPRINKLES ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTHERN CWA...HAD A TRACE HERE AT THE OFFICE FROM A PASSING
BATCH OF SPRINKLES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO OHIO...WITH
RADAR ECHOS MOVING INTO CWA FROM THE SW. NOTHING REAL IMPRESSIVE
WITH THIS...SO ONLY HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY BACK TOWARDS
THE TRI-STATE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A PRETTY GOOD CAP IN
PLACE AROUND 12KFT SO WOULD NOT EXPECT ANY THUNDER...AND EVEN
SHOWERS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEAK 500MB
RIPPLE DROPPING INTO THE OVERALL TROUGH TODAY...AND ALSO SHOW AN
AREA OF DECENT MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA AROUND THE
SAME TIME...SO LINGERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM HTS TO CRW THROUGH
A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AFTERNOON. IN THE END MAY JUST BE PATCHY
SPRINKLES OR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP SOME LATE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES EAST...TAKING THE
MOISTURE WITH IT. BLENDED IN BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS...AND BLENDED MET INTO THE PREVIOUS LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MID/UPPER TROF DROPS SE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY...
SWINGING THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY NIGHT.  A WEAK SURFACE FRONT
WILL LIKELY BE REFLECTED...MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND TRYING TO REACH INTO WEST VIRGINIA TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE 00Z NAM DEPICTS A NICE DEW POINT GRADIENT AT 925 MBS ALONG THIS
FEATURE OF ABOUT 6C.  MOST OF THE MID LEVEL COOLING IN RESPONSE TO
THAT DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO PENNSYLVANIA...RATHER THAN DIVING
SOUTHEAST INTO WV. SO WILL NOT GET TOO EXCITED WITH HIGHER POPS.
WILL SWING SOME 20 AND 30 POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN
RESPONSE TO THAT FEATURE.

THAT DEW POINT GRADIENT SINKS INTO WV FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE
STALLING  THE 00Z GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  THINKING LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTH AND WEST. WILL INCLUDE SOME FOG IN SE OH...NE KY AND SRN WV
FOR DAWN WEDNESDAY.  CONFIDENCE LOWER IN MOUNTAINS AND NORTH.

WITH LIGHT SURFACE AND 925 MB WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL FORECAST MAX
TEMPERATURE BELOW GFS MAV GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS.  STRATUS MAY LINGER
IN THE MORNING FOR AT LEAST SOME COUNTIES.

THE WARMEST DAY STILL APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY. NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE
FROM OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST.  AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...STILL HAVE POPS
INCREASING IN THE WESTERN LOWLANDS BY THE PREDAWN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THIS
WOULD HAVE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLLING THE WEATHER
THURSDAY...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT PROVIDING SOME PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL THEN MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT A LOT OF FOG OUT THERE EARLY THIS MORNING...INSTEAD HAVE MIX
OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...AND EVEN SOME SPRINKLES AND LIGHT
SHOWERS. CANNOT RULE OUT A PASSING SPRINKLE TODAY...MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR...BUT SHOULD NOT IMPACT FLIGHT
CATEGORIES AND EXPECT VFR TODAY. QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
TONIGHT ON FOG FORMATION. THINK VALLEY FOG A GOOD BET ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER...BUT FARTHER EAST COULD SEE FOG...OR POSSIBLY LOW
STRATUS INSTEAD. LIGHT FLOW WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RIVER/VALLEY FOG TIMING AND DENSITY MAY VARY
OVERNIGHT. FOG/LOW STRATUS MAY VARY TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ/50
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...MZ








000
FXUS61 KRLX 291437
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1037 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERN MOISTURE SKIMS SOUTH AS WEAK UPPER TROUGH PASSES TODAY.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONG COLD
FRONT PASSES FRIDAY. IN ITS WAKE...COOLER AIR OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...OVERALL FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH GENERAL AREA
OF PRECIP HAVING EXITED THE FORECAST AREA TO THE EAST WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF POCAHONTAS COUNTY. ADDED IN SOME LOW/MID CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA FOR THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS BATCH OF LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOC WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS.

620 AM UPDATE...INCREASED POPS ALONG EASTERN CWA BORDER EARLY THIS
MORNING BASED ON CURRENT RADAR. ALSO ADDED SPRINKLES ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTHERN CWA...HAD A TRACE HERE AT THE OFFICE FROM A PASSING
BATCH OF SPRINKLES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO OHIO...WITH
RADAR ECHOS MOVING INTO CWA FROM THE SW. NOTHING REAL IMPRESSIVE
WITH THIS...SO ONLY HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY BACK TOWARDS
THE TRI-STATE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A PRETTY GOOD CAP IN
PLACE AROUND 12KFT SO WOULD NOT EXPECT ANY THUNDER...AND EVEN
SHOWERS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEAK 500MB
RIPPLE DROPPING INTO THE OVERALL TROUGH TODAY...AND ALSO SHOW AN
AREA OF DECENT MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA AROUND THE
SAME TIME...SO LINGERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM HTS TO CRW THROUGH
A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AFTERNOON. IN THE END MAY JUST BE PATCHY
SPRINKLES OR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP SOME LATE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES EAST...TAKING THE
MOISTURE WITH IT. BLENDED IN BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS...AND BLENDED MET INTO THE PREVIOUS LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MID/UPPER TROF DROPS SE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY...
SWINGING THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY NIGHT.  A WEAK SURFACE FRONT
WILL LIKELY BE REFLECTED...MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND TRYING TO REACH INTO WEST VIRGINIA TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE 00Z NAM DEPICTS A NICE DEW POINT GRADIENT AT 925 MBS ALONG THIS
FEATURE OF ABOUT 6C.  MOST OF THE MID LEVEL COOLING IN RESPONSE TO
THAT DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO PENNSYLVANIA...RATHER THAN DIVING
SOUTHEAST INTO WV. SO WILL NOT GET TOO EXCITED WITH HIGHER POPS.
WILL SWING SOME 20 AND 30 POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN
RESPONSE TO THAT FEATURE.

THAT DEW POINT GRADIENT SINKS INTO WV FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE
STALLING  THE 00Z GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  THINKING LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTH AND WEST. WILL INCLUDE SOME FOG IN SE OH...NE KY AND SRN WV
FOR DAWN WEDNESDAY.  CONFIDENCE LOWER IN MOUNTAINS AND NORTH.

WITH LIGHT SURFACE AND 925 MB WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL FORECAST MAX
TEMPERATURE BELOW GFS MAV GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS.  STRATUS MAY LINGER
IN THE MORNING FOR AT LEAST SOME COUNTIES.

THE WARMEST DAY STILL APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY. NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE
FROM OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST.  AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...STILL HAVE POPS
INCREASING IN THE WESTERN LOWLANDS BY THE PREDAWN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THIS
WOULD HAVE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLLING THE WEATHER
THURSDAY...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT PROVIDING SOME PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL THEN MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT A LOT OF FOG OUT THERE EARLY THIS MORNING...INSTEAD HAVE MIX
OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...AND EVEN SOME SPRINKLES AND LIGHT
SHOWERS. CANNOT RULE OUT A PASSING SPRINKLE TODAY...MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR...BUT SHOULD NOT IMPACT FLIGHT
CATEGORIES AND EXPECT VFR TODAY. QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
TONIGHT ON FOG FORMATION. THINK VALLEY FOG A GOOD BET ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER...BUT FARTHER EAST COULD SEE FOG...OR POSSIBLY LOW
STRATUS INSTEAD. LIGHT FLOW WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RIVER/VALLEY FOG TIMING AND DENSITY MAY VARY
OVERNIGHT. FOG/LOW STRATUS MAY VARY TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ/50
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...MZ








000
FXUS61 KRLX 291437
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1037 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERN MOISTURE SKIMS SOUTH AS WEAK UPPER TROUGH PASSES TODAY.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONG COLD
FRONT PASSES FRIDAY. IN ITS WAKE...COOLER AIR OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...OVERALL FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH GENERAL AREA
OF PRECIP HAVING EXITED THE FORECAST AREA TO THE EAST WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF POCAHONTAS COUNTY. ADDED IN SOME LOW/MID CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA FOR THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS BATCH OF LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOC WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS.

620 AM UPDATE...INCREASED POPS ALONG EASTERN CWA BORDER EARLY THIS
MORNING BASED ON CURRENT RADAR. ALSO ADDED SPRINKLES ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTHERN CWA...HAD A TRACE HERE AT THE OFFICE FROM A PASSING
BATCH OF SPRINKLES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO OHIO...WITH
RADAR ECHOS MOVING INTO CWA FROM THE SW. NOTHING REAL IMPRESSIVE
WITH THIS...SO ONLY HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY BACK TOWARDS
THE TRI-STATE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A PRETTY GOOD CAP IN
PLACE AROUND 12KFT SO WOULD NOT EXPECT ANY THUNDER...AND EVEN
SHOWERS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEAK 500MB
RIPPLE DROPPING INTO THE OVERALL TROUGH TODAY...AND ALSO SHOW AN
AREA OF DECENT MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA AROUND THE
SAME TIME...SO LINGERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM HTS TO CRW THROUGH
A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AFTERNOON. IN THE END MAY JUST BE PATCHY
SPRINKLES OR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP SOME LATE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES EAST...TAKING THE
MOISTURE WITH IT. BLENDED IN BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS...AND BLENDED MET INTO THE PREVIOUS LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MID/UPPER TROF DROPS SE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY...
SWINGING THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY NIGHT.  A WEAK SURFACE FRONT
WILL LIKELY BE REFLECTED...MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND TRYING TO REACH INTO WEST VIRGINIA TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE 00Z NAM DEPICTS A NICE DEW POINT GRADIENT AT 925 MBS ALONG THIS
FEATURE OF ABOUT 6C.  MOST OF THE MID LEVEL COOLING IN RESPONSE TO
THAT DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO PENNSYLVANIA...RATHER THAN DIVING
SOUTHEAST INTO WV. SO WILL NOT GET TOO EXCITED WITH HIGHER POPS.
WILL SWING SOME 20 AND 30 POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN
RESPONSE TO THAT FEATURE.

THAT DEW POINT GRADIENT SINKS INTO WV FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE
STALLING  THE 00Z GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  THINKING LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTH AND WEST. WILL INCLUDE SOME FOG IN SE OH...NE KY AND SRN WV
FOR DAWN WEDNESDAY.  CONFIDENCE LOWER IN MOUNTAINS AND NORTH.

WITH LIGHT SURFACE AND 925 MB WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL FORECAST MAX
TEMPERATURE BELOW GFS MAV GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS.  STRATUS MAY LINGER
IN THE MORNING FOR AT LEAST SOME COUNTIES.

THE WARMEST DAY STILL APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY. NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE
FROM OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST.  AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...STILL HAVE POPS
INCREASING IN THE WESTERN LOWLANDS BY THE PREDAWN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THIS
WOULD HAVE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLLING THE WEATHER
THURSDAY...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT PROVIDING SOME PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL THEN MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT A LOT OF FOG OUT THERE EARLY THIS MORNING...INSTEAD HAVE MIX
OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...AND EVEN SOME SPRINKLES AND LIGHT
SHOWERS. CANNOT RULE OUT A PASSING SPRINKLE TODAY...MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR...BUT SHOULD NOT IMPACT FLIGHT
CATEGORIES AND EXPECT VFR TODAY. QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
TONIGHT ON FOG FORMATION. THINK VALLEY FOG A GOOD BET ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER...BUT FARTHER EAST COULD SEE FOG...OR POSSIBLY LOW
STRATUS INSTEAD. LIGHT FLOW WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RIVER/VALLEY FOG TIMING AND DENSITY MAY VARY
OVERNIGHT. FOG/LOW STRATUS MAY VARY TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ/50
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...MZ








000
FXUS61 KRLX 291437
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1037 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERN MOISTURE SKIMS SOUTH AS WEAK UPPER TROUGH PASSES TODAY.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONG COLD
FRONT PASSES FRIDAY. IN ITS WAKE...COOLER AIR OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...OVERALL FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH GENERAL AREA
OF PRECIP HAVING EXITED THE FORECAST AREA TO THE EAST WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF POCAHONTAS COUNTY. ADDED IN SOME LOW/MID CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA FOR THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS BATCH OF LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOC WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS.

620 AM UPDATE...INCREASED POPS ALONG EASTERN CWA BORDER EARLY THIS
MORNING BASED ON CURRENT RADAR. ALSO ADDED SPRINKLES ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTHERN CWA...HAD A TRACE HERE AT THE OFFICE FROM A PASSING
BATCH OF SPRINKLES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO OHIO...WITH
RADAR ECHOS MOVING INTO CWA FROM THE SW. NOTHING REAL IMPRESSIVE
WITH THIS...SO ONLY HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY BACK TOWARDS
THE TRI-STATE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A PRETTY GOOD CAP IN
PLACE AROUND 12KFT SO WOULD NOT EXPECT ANY THUNDER...AND EVEN
SHOWERS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEAK 500MB
RIPPLE DROPPING INTO THE OVERALL TROUGH TODAY...AND ALSO SHOW AN
AREA OF DECENT MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA AROUND THE
SAME TIME...SO LINGERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM HTS TO CRW THROUGH
A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AFTERNOON. IN THE END MAY JUST BE PATCHY
SPRINKLES OR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP SOME LATE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES EAST...TAKING THE
MOISTURE WITH IT. BLENDED IN BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS...AND BLENDED MET INTO THE PREVIOUS LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MID/UPPER TROF DROPS SE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY...
SWINGING THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY NIGHT.  A WEAK SURFACE FRONT
WILL LIKELY BE REFLECTED...MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND TRYING TO REACH INTO WEST VIRGINIA TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE 00Z NAM DEPICTS A NICE DEW POINT GRADIENT AT 925 MBS ALONG THIS
FEATURE OF ABOUT 6C.  MOST OF THE MID LEVEL COOLING IN RESPONSE TO
THAT DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO PENNSYLVANIA...RATHER THAN DIVING
SOUTHEAST INTO WV. SO WILL NOT GET TOO EXCITED WITH HIGHER POPS.
WILL SWING SOME 20 AND 30 POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN
RESPONSE TO THAT FEATURE.

THAT DEW POINT GRADIENT SINKS INTO WV FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE
STALLING  THE 00Z GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  THINKING LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTH AND WEST. WILL INCLUDE SOME FOG IN SE OH...NE KY AND SRN WV
FOR DAWN WEDNESDAY.  CONFIDENCE LOWER IN MOUNTAINS AND NORTH.

WITH LIGHT SURFACE AND 925 MB WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL FORECAST MAX
TEMPERATURE BELOW GFS MAV GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS.  STRATUS MAY LINGER
IN THE MORNING FOR AT LEAST SOME COUNTIES.

THE WARMEST DAY STILL APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY. NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE
FROM OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST.  AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...STILL HAVE POPS
INCREASING IN THE WESTERN LOWLANDS BY THE PREDAWN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THIS
WOULD HAVE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLLING THE WEATHER
THURSDAY...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT PROVIDING SOME PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL THEN MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT A LOT OF FOG OUT THERE EARLY THIS MORNING...INSTEAD HAVE MIX
OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...AND EVEN SOME SPRINKLES AND LIGHT
SHOWERS. CANNOT RULE OUT A PASSING SPRINKLE TODAY...MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR...BUT SHOULD NOT IMPACT FLIGHT
CATEGORIES AND EXPECT VFR TODAY. QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
TONIGHT ON FOG FORMATION. THINK VALLEY FOG A GOOD BET ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER...BUT FARTHER EAST COULD SEE FOG...OR POSSIBLY LOW
STRATUS INSTEAD. LIGHT FLOW WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RIVER/VALLEY FOG TIMING AND DENSITY MAY VARY
OVERNIGHT. FOG/LOW STRATUS MAY VARY TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ/50
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...MZ








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