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000
FXUS61 KRLX 242333
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
709 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT EXITS SOUTH THIS EVENING. DRIER AIR REACHES INTO
SOUTHEAST OHIO FIRST...THEN CREEPS FURTHER EAST LATER TONIGHT. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL KEEP WET WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
18Z SHOWING SFC FRONT STILL JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE WIND SHIFT FINALLY MAKING IT THROUGH BKW IN THE PAST
HOUR. WATER VAPOR SAT AND VAD WIND PROFILERS SHOWING THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS A BIT FURTHER NORTHWEST...IT SERVING AS TODAY/S FOCAL
POINT FOR SHOWER/STORM REDEVELOPMENT. THE BACK EDGE OF THE GENERAL
PRECIP SHIELD/LINE IS NOW EAST OF HTS...SHOULD BE THROUGH CRW IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO TOPS...AND OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS 21Z-22Z. WILL LAG
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEHIND THE MAIN LINE FOR AN HOUR OR SO...BUT
EXPECT PRECIP TO END BY 00Z FRI.

OVERNIGHT...FLOW TURNS NORTHWEST WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSAGE WITH
SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NW ZONES BY 12Z FRI. CLOUDS ARE A BIT OF
A TOUGH CALL...WITH THE LATEST NAM RUN DEPICTING SOME TRAPPED LLVL
MOISTURE UNDERNEATH THE STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...WHILE
THE RAP/S LATEST RUNS SHOWING MORE ROBUST SCATTERING OF LLVL
MOISTURE...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE CLEARING. EXTENSIVE CUMULUS
FIELD NORTH OF OUR AREA LENDS SOME CREDENCE TO EXISTING LLVL
MOISTURE...AND WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT 00Z RAOBS IN THOSE
AREAS YIELD. IN SHORT...SHOULD WE CLEAR AS EXPECTED...MORE
FOG/REDUCED VIS WILL TRANSPIRE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.
SHOULD THE CLOUDS BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE/SCATTER...FOG WILL BE LESS
PREVALENT. VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREV FCST REGARDING OVERNIGHT
MINS...RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S NORTHWEST AND MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER
50S CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOWLANDS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OFF TO THE EAST. SHOULD BE
A VERY PLEASANT DAY IN STORE. A PINCH OF LLVL MOISTURE AROUND 850MB
PROBABLY WILL RESULT IN A FLAT-CU SCATTERED DECK...BUT THE AREA
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH WARM
ADVECTION ENSUING. MAY BE A MORE ROBUST CU-FIELD IN THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...AND HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING
THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NW ZONES AS A RIPPLE WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. HIGHS OF ABOUT 80F
FOR THE LOWLANDS PLUS OR MINUS A COUPLE OF DEGREES STILL APPEAR ON
TRACK...WHICH PREV FCST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON WITH ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL WITH PLEASANT WEATHER
FRIDAY.

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...EVIDENT IN H5 CHARTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER H5 SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS MID DAY SATURDAY
CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR PCPN INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MINOR TWEAKS
MADE TO POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT FOR
THE LAST FEW DAYS.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE ON
SUNDAY MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH AND ALONG THE WV SIDE OF THE OH
RIVER.

FLOW WILL BECOME MODERATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT. LEANED CLOSER TO THE MOS CONSENSUS FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE LAST SHORTWAVE EXITS THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. GRADUALLY REDUCED POPS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY MORNING...KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE
PCPN.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

FUSED A BLEND OF
DIFFERENT GUIDANCE...KEPT WARMER TEMPS FOR A MUGGY SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOW TURN NORTHWEST BY MONDAY BRINGING COOLER PLEASANT TEMPERATURES
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

NORTHERLY WINDS ARE PUSHING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL
ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR THIS EVENING...CLEARING LAST IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING AS
WELL...ALLOWING FOG TO FORM. DENSE FOG SHOULD FORM FIRST AND BE MOST
WIDESPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES...WITH FOG
CONFINED TO RIVER VALLEYS IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN WV.
AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF ON FRIDAY MORNING...EXPECT A RISING CUMULUS
DECK.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CLEARING CLOUDS COULD VARY. TIMING OF
FOG FORMING COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            FRI 07/25/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...RPY










000
FXUS61 KRLX 242333
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
709 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT EXITS SOUTH THIS EVENING. DRIER AIR REACHES INTO
SOUTHEAST OHIO FIRST...THEN CREEPS FURTHER EAST LATER TONIGHT. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL KEEP WET WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
18Z SHOWING SFC FRONT STILL JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE WIND SHIFT FINALLY MAKING IT THROUGH BKW IN THE PAST
HOUR. WATER VAPOR SAT AND VAD WIND PROFILERS SHOWING THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS A BIT FURTHER NORTHWEST...IT SERVING AS TODAY/S FOCAL
POINT FOR SHOWER/STORM REDEVELOPMENT. THE BACK EDGE OF THE GENERAL
PRECIP SHIELD/LINE IS NOW EAST OF HTS...SHOULD BE THROUGH CRW IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO TOPS...AND OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS 21Z-22Z. WILL LAG
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEHIND THE MAIN LINE FOR AN HOUR OR SO...BUT
EXPECT PRECIP TO END BY 00Z FRI.

OVERNIGHT...FLOW TURNS NORTHWEST WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSAGE WITH
SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NW ZONES BY 12Z FRI. CLOUDS ARE A BIT OF
A TOUGH CALL...WITH THE LATEST NAM RUN DEPICTING SOME TRAPPED LLVL
MOISTURE UNDERNEATH THE STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...WHILE
THE RAP/S LATEST RUNS SHOWING MORE ROBUST SCATTERING OF LLVL
MOISTURE...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE CLEARING. EXTENSIVE CUMULUS
FIELD NORTH OF OUR AREA LENDS SOME CREDENCE TO EXISTING LLVL
MOISTURE...AND WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT 00Z RAOBS IN THOSE
AREAS YIELD. IN SHORT...SHOULD WE CLEAR AS EXPECTED...MORE
FOG/REDUCED VIS WILL TRANSPIRE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.
SHOULD THE CLOUDS BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE/SCATTER...FOG WILL BE LESS
PREVALENT. VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREV FCST REGARDING OVERNIGHT
MINS...RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S NORTHWEST AND MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER
50S CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOWLANDS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OFF TO THE EAST. SHOULD BE
A VERY PLEASANT DAY IN STORE. A PINCH OF LLVL MOISTURE AROUND 850MB
PROBABLY WILL RESULT IN A FLAT-CU SCATTERED DECK...BUT THE AREA
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH WARM
ADVECTION ENSUING. MAY BE A MORE ROBUST CU-FIELD IN THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...AND HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING
THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NW ZONES AS A RIPPLE WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. HIGHS OF ABOUT 80F
FOR THE LOWLANDS PLUS OR MINUS A COUPLE OF DEGREES STILL APPEAR ON
TRACK...WHICH PREV FCST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON WITH ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL WITH PLEASANT WEATHER
FRIDAY.

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...EVIDENT IN H5 CHARTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER H5 SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS MID DAY SATURDAY
CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR PCPN INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MINOR TWEAKS
MADE TO POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT FOR
THE LAST FEW DAYS.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE ON
SUNDAY MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH AND ALONG THE WV SIDE OF THE OH
RIVER.

FLOW WILL BECOME MODERATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT. LEANED CLOSER TO THE MOS CONSENSUS FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE LAST SHORTWAVE EXITS THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. GRADUALLY REDUCED POPS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY MORNING...KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE
PCPN.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

FUSED A BLEND OF
DIFFERENT GUIDANCE...KEPT WARMER TEMPS FOR A MUGGY SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOW TURN NORTHWEST BY MONDAY BRINGING COOLER PLEASANT TEMPERATURES
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

NORTHERLY WINDS ARE PUSHING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL
ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR THIS EVENING...CLEARING LAST IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING AS
WELL...ALLOWING FOG TO FORM. DENSE FOG SHOULD FORM FIRST AND BE MOST
WIDESPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES...WITH FOG
CONFINED TO RIVER VALLEYS IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN WV.
AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF ON FRIDAY MORNING...EXPECT A RISING CUMULUS
DECK.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CLEARING CLOUDS COULD VARY. TIMING OF
FOG FORMING COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            FRI 07/25/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...RPY











000
FXUS61 KRLX 241933
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
333 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT EXITS SOUTH THIS EVENING. DRIER AIR REACHES INTO
SOUTHEAST OHIO FIRST...THEN CREEPS FURTHER EAST LATER TONIGHT. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL KEEP WET WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
18Z SHOWING SFC FRONT STILL JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE WIND SHIFT FINALLY MAKING IT THROUGH BKW IN THE PAST
HOUR. WATER VAPOR SAT AND VAD WIND PROFILERS SHOWING THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS A BIT FURTHER NORTHWEST...IT SERVING AS TODAY/S FOCAL
POINT FOR SHOWER/STORM REDEVELOPMENT. THE BACK EDGE OF THE GENERAL
PRECIP SHIELD/LINE IS NOW EAST OF HTS...SHOULD BE THROUGH CRW IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO TOPS...AND OVER THE EASTERN MTS 21Z-22Z. WILL LAG
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEHIND THE MAIN LINE FOR AN HOUR OR SO...BUT
EXPECT PRECIP TO END BY 00Z FRI.

OVERNIGHT...FLOW TURNS NORTHWEST WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSAGE WITH
SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NW ZONES BY 12Z FRI. CLOUDS ARE A BIT OF
A TOUGH CALL...WITH THE LATEST NAM RUN DEPICTING SOME TRAPPED LLVL
MOISTURE UNDERNEATH THE STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...WHILE
THE RAP/S LATEST RUNS SHOWING MORE ROBUST SCATTERING OF LLVL
MOISTURE...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE CLEARING. EXTENSIVE CUMULUS
FIELD NORTH OF OUR AREA LENDS SOME CREDENCE TO EXISTING LLVL
MOISTURE...AND WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT 00Z RAOBS IN THOSE
AREAS YIELD. IN SHORT...SHOULD WE CLEAR AS EXPECTED...MORE
FOG/REDUCED VIS WILL TRANSPIRE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.
SHOULD THE CLOUDS BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE/SCATTER...FOG WILL BE LESS
PREVALENT. VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREV FCST REGARDING OVERNIGHT
MINS...RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S NORTHWEST AND MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER
50S CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOWLANDS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OFF TO THE EAST. SHOULD BE
A VERY PLEASANT DAY IN STORE. A PINCH OF LLVL MOISTURE AROUND 850MB
PROBABLY WILL RESULT IN A FLAT-CU SCATTERED DECK...BUT THE AREA
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH WARM
ADVECTION ENSUING. MAY BE A MORE ROBUST CU-FIELD IN THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...AND HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING
THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NW ZONES AS A RIPPLE WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. HIGHS OF ABOUT 80F
FOR THE LOWLANDS PLUS OR MINUS A COUPLE OF DEGREES STILL APPEAR ON
TRACK...WHICH PREV FCST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON WITH ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL WITH PLEASANT WEATHER
FRIDAY.

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...EVIDENT IN H5 CHARTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER H5 SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS MID DAY SATURDAY
CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR PCPN INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MINOR TWEAKS
MADE TO POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT FOR
THE LAST FEW DAYS.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE ON
SUNDAY MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH AND ALONG THE WV SIDE OF THE OH
RIVER.

FLOW WILL BECOME MODERATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT. LEANED CLOSER TO THE MOS CONSENSUS FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE LAST SHORTWAVE EXITS THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. GRADUALLY REDUCED POPS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY MORNING...KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE
PCPN.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

FUSED A BLEND OF
DIFFERENT GUIDANCE...KEPT WARMER TEMPS FOR A MUGGY SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOW TURN NORTHWEST BY MONDAY BRINGING COOLER PLEASANT TEMPERATURES
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST...AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS BY 00Z FRI. IFR CIGS CURRENTLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...IMPROVING LAST IN THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AS USUAL.

A BIT OF A TOUGH CALL ON LOW STRATUS THIS EVENING...PARTICULARLY
FROM CKB-CRW AND POINTS SOUTH/EAST. DO BELIEVE THAT EVEN HERE LOW
STRATUS WILL EVENTUALLY SCATTER. FOG SHOULD BE A GOOD BET AT LEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL LOWLANDS OF WEST VIRGINIA...WITH LESS CERTAINTY
FURTHER WEST AND NORTH NEAR AND WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER WHERE TEMPS
ARE A BIT WARMER TODAY AND DEWPOINTS LOWER.

REDUCTIONS IN VIS AND CIG SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE BY THE 14Z-15Z
TIME FRAME AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CIG IMPROVEMENT MAY VARY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL THAT IT MAY NOT
COMPLETELY MATERIALIZE ACROSS THE EAST. TIMING...COVERAGE...AND
INTENSITY OF VIS REDUCTION MAY VARY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    M    M    L    L    L    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...50








000
FXUS61 KRLX 241933
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
333 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT EXITS SOUTH THIS EVENING. DRIER AIR REACHES INTO
SOUTHEAST OHIO FIRST...THEN CREEPS FURTHER EAST LATER TONIGHT. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL KEEP WET WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
18Z SHOWING SFC FRONT STILL JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE WIND SHIFT FINALLY MAKING IT THROUGH BKW IN THE PAST
HOUR. WATER VAPOR SAT AND VAD WIND PROFILERS SHOWING THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS A BIT FURTHER NORTHWEST...IT SERVING AS TODAY/S FOCAL
POINT FOR SHOWER/STORM REDEVELOPMENT. THE BACK EDGE OF THE GENERAL
PRECIP SHIELD/LINE IS NOW EAST OF HTS...SHOULD BE THROUGH CRW IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO TOPS...AND OVER THE EASTERN MTS 21Z-22Z. WILL LAG
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEHIND THE MAIN LINE FOR AN HOUR OR SO...BUT
EXPECT PRECIP TO END BY 00Z FRI.

OVERNIGHT...FLOW TURNS NORTHWEST WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSAGE WITH
SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NW ZONES BY 12Z FRI. CLOUDS ARE A BIT OF
A TOUGH CALL...WITH THE LATEST NAM RUN DEPICTING SOME TRAPPED LLVL
MOISTURE UNDERNEATH THE STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...WHILE
THE RAP/S LATEST RUNS SHOWING MORE ROBUST SCATTERING OF LLVL
MOISTURE...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE CLEARING. EXTENSIVE CUMULUS
FIELD NORTH OF OUR AREA LENDS SOME CREDENCE TO EXISTING LLVL
MOISTURE...AND WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT 00Z RAOBS IN THOSE
AREAS YIELD. IN SHORT...SHOULD WE CLEAR AS EXPECTED...MORE
FOG/REDUCED VIS WILL TRANSPIRE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.
SHOULD THE CLOUDS BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE/SCATTER...FOG WILL BE LESS
PREVALENT. VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREV FCST REGARDING OVERNIGHT
MINS...RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S NORTHWEST AND MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER
50S CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOWLANDS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OFF TO THE EAST. SHOULD BE
A VERY PLEASANT DAY IN STORE. A PINCH OF LLVL MOISTURE AROUND 850MB
PROBABLY WILL RESULT IN A FLAT-CU SCATTERED DECK...BUT THE AREA
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH WARM
ADVECTION ENSUING. MAY BE A MORE ROBUST CU-FIELD IN THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...AND HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING
THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NW ZONES AS A RIPPLE WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. HIGHS OF ABOUT 80F
FOR THE LOWLANDS PLUS OR MINUS A COUPLE OF DEGREES STILL APPEAR ON
TRACK...WHICH PREV FCST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON WITH ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL WITH PLEASANT WEATHER
FRIDAY.

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...EVIDENT IN H5 CHARTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER H5 SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS MID DAY SATURDAY
CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR PCPN INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MINOR TWEAKS
MADE TO POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT FOR
THE LAST FEW DAYS.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE ON
SUNDAY MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH AND ALONG THE WV SIDE OF THE OH
RIVER.

FLOW WILL BECOME MODERATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT. LEANED CLOSER TO THE MOS CONSENSUS FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE LAST SHORTWAVE EXITS THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. GRADUALLY REDUCED POPS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY MORNING...KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE
PCPN.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

FUSED A BLEND OF
DIFFERENT GUIDANCE...KEPT WARMER TEMPS FOR A MUGGY SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOW TURN NORTHWEST BY MONDAY BRINGING COOLER PLEASANT TEMPERATURES
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST...AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS BY 00Z FRI. IFR CIGS CURRENTLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...IMPROVING LAST IN THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AS USUAL.

A BIT OF A TOUGH CALL ON LOW STRATUS THIS EVENING...PARTICULARLY
FROM CKB-CRW AND POINTS SOUTH/EAST. DO BELIEVE THAT EVEN HERE LOW
STRATUS WILL EVENTUALLY SCATTER. FOG SHOULD BE A GOOD BET AT LEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL LOWLANDS OF WEST VIRGINIA...WITH LESS CERTAINTY
FURTHER WEST AND NORTH NEAR AND WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER WHERE TEMPS
ARE A BIT WARMER TODAY AND DEWPOINTS LOWER.

REDUCTIONS IN VIS AND CIG SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE BY THE 14Z-15Z
TIME FRAME AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CIG IMPROVEMENT MAY VARY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL THAT IT MAY NOT
COMPLETELY MATERIALIZE ACROSS THE EAST. TIMING...COVERAGE...AND
INTENSITY OF VIS REDUCTION MAY VARY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    M    M    L    L    L    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...50









000
FXUS61 KRLX 241928
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
328 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT EXITS SOUTH THIS EVENING. DRIER AIR REACHES INTO
SOUTHEAST OHIO FIRST...THEN CREEPS FURTHER EAST LATER TONIGHT. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL KEEP WET WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
18Z SHOWING SFC FRONT STILL JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE WIND SHIFT FINALLY MAKING IT THROUGH BKW IN THE PAST
HOUR. WATER VAPOR SAT AND VAD WIND PROFILERS SHOWING THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS A BIT FURTHER NORTHWEST...IT SERVING AS TODAY/S FOCAL
POINT FOR SHOWER/STORM REDEVELOPMENT. THE BACK EDGE OF THE GENERAL
PRECIP SHIELD/LINE IS NOW EAST OF HTS...SHOULD BE THROUGH CRW IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO TOPS...AND OVER THE EASTERN MTS 21Z-22Z. WILL LAG
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEHIND THE MAIN LINE FOR AN HOUR OR SO...BUT
EXPECT PRECIP TO END BY 00Z FRI.

OVERNIGHT...FLOW TURNS NORTHWEST WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSAGE WITH
SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NW ZONES BY 12Z FRI. CLOUDS ARE A BIT OF
A TOUGH CALL...WITH THE LATEST NAM RUN DEPICTING SOME TRAPPED LLVL
MOISTURE UNDERNEATH THE STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...WHILE
THE RAP/S LATEST RUNS SHOWING MORE ROBUST SCATTERING OF LLVL
MOISTURE...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE CLEARING. EXTENSIVE CUMULUS
FIELD NORTH OF OUR AREA LENDS SOME CREDENCE TO EXISTING LLVL
MOISTURE...AND WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT 00Z RAOBS IN THOSE
AREAS YIELD. IN SHORT...SHOULD WE CLEAR AS EXPECTED...MORE
FOG/REDUCED VIS WILL TRANSPIRE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.
SHOULD THE CLOUDS BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE/SCATTER...FOG WILL BE LESS
PREVALENT. VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREV FCST REGARDING OVERNIGHT
MINS...RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S NORTHWEST AND MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER
50S CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOWLANDS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OFF TO THE EAST. SHOULD BE
A VERY PLEASANT DAY IN STORE. A PINCH OF LLVL MOISTURE AROUND 850MB
PROBABLY WILL RESULT IN A FLAT-CU SCATTERED DECK...BUT THE AREA
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH WARM
ADVECTION ENSUING. MAY BE A MORE ROBUST CU-FIELD IN THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...AND HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING
THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NW ZONES AS A RIPPLE WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. HIGHS OF ABOUT 80F
FOR THE LOWLANDS PLUS OR MINUS A COUPLE OF DEGREES STILL APPEAR ON
TRACK...WHICH PREV FCST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON WITH ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL WITH PLEASANT WEATHER
FRIDAY.

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...EVIDENT IN H5 CHARTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER H5 SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS MID DAY SATURDAY
CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR PCPN INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MINOR TWEAKS
MADE TO POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT FOR
THE LAST FEW DAYS.

FLOW WILL BECOME MODERATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT. LEANED CLOSER TO THE MOS CONSENSUS FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE LAST SHORTWAVE EXITS THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. GRADUALLY REDUCED POPS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY MORNING...KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE
PCPN.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

FUSED A BLEND OF
DIFFERENT GUIDANCE...KEPT WARMER TEMPS FOR A MUGGY SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOW TURN NORTHWEST BY MONDAY BRINGING COOLER PLEASANT TEMPERATURES
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST...AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS BY 00Z FRI. IFR CIGS CURRENTLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...IMPROVING LAST IN THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AS USUAL.

A BIT OF A TOUGH CALL ON LOW STRATUS THIS EVENING...PARTICULARLY
FROM CKB-CRW AND POINTS SOUTH/EAST. DO BELIEVE THAT EVEN HERE LOW
STRATUS WILL EVENTUALLY SCATTER. FOG SHOULD BE A GOOD BET AT LEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL LOWLANDS OF WEST VIRGINIA...WITH LESS CERTAINTY
FURTHER WEST AND NORTH NEAR AND WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER WHERE TEMPS
ARE A BIT WARMER TODAY AND DEWPOINTS LOWER.

REDUCTIONS IN VIS AND CIG SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE BY THE 14Z-15Z
TIME FRAME AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CIG IMPROVEMENT MAY VARY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL THAT IT MAY NOT
COMPLETELY MATERIALIZE ACROSS THE EAST. TIMING...COVERAGE...AND
INTENSITY OF VIS REDUCTION MAY VARY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...50









000
FXUS61 KRLX 241928
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
328 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT EXITS SOUTH THIS EVENING. DRIER AIR REACHES INTO
SOUTHEAST OHIO FIRST...THEN CREEPS FURTHER EAST LATER TONIGHT. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL KEEP WET WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
18Z SHOWING SFC FRONT STILL JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE WIND SHIFT FINALLY MAKING IT THROUGH BKW IN THE PAST
HOUR. WATER VAPOR SAT AND VAD WIND PROFILERS SHOWING THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS A BIT FURTHER NORTHWEST...IT SERVING AS TODAY/S FOCAL
POINT FOR SHOWER/STORM REDEVELOPMENT. THE BACK EDGE OF THE GENERAL
PRECIP SHIELD/LINE IS NOW EAST OF HTS...SHOULD BE THROUGH CRW IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO TOPS...AND OVER THE EASTERN MTS 21Z-22Z. WILL LAG
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEHIND THE MAIN LINE FOR AN HOUR OR SO...BUT
EXPECT PRECIP TO END BY 00Z FRI.

OVERNIGHT...FLOW TURNS NORTHWEST WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSAGE WITH
SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NW ZONES BY 12Z FRI. CLOUDS ARE A BIT OF
A TOUGH CALL...WITH THE LATEST NAM RUN DEPICTING SOME TRAPPED LLVL
MOISTURE UNDERNEATH THE STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...WHILE
THE RAP/S LATEST RUNS SHOWING MORE ROBUST SCATTERING OF LLVL
MOISTURE...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE CLEARING. EXTENSIVE CUMULUS
FIELD NORTH OF OUR AREA LENDS SOME CREDENCE TO EXISTING LLVL
MOISTURE...AND WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT 00Z RAOBS IN THOSE
AREAS YIELD. IN SHORT...SHOULD WE CLEAR AS EXPECTED...MORE
FOG/REDUCED VIS WILL TRANSPIRE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.
SHOULD THE CLOUDS BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE/SCATTER...FOG WILL BE LESS
PREVALENT. VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREV FCST REGARDING OVERNIGHT
MINS...RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S NORTHWEST AND MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER
50S CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOWLANDS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OFF TO THE EAST. SHOULD BE
A VERY PLEASANT DAY IN STORE. A PINCH OF LLVL MOISTURE AROUND 850MB
PROBABLY WILL RESULT IN A FLAT-CU SCATTERED DECK...BUT THE AREA
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH WARM
ADVECTION ENSUING. MAY BE A MORE ROBUST CU-FIELD IN THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...AND HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING
THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NW ZONES AS A RIPPLE WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. HIGHS OF ABOUT 80F
FOR THE LOWLANDS PLUS OR MINUS A COUPLE OF DEGREES STILL APPEAR ON
TRACK...WHICH PREV FCST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON WITH ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL WITH PLEASANT WEATHER
FRIDAY.

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...EVIDENT IN H5 CHARTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER H5 SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS MID DAY SATURDAY
CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR PCPN INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MINOR TWEAKS
MADE TO POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT FOR
THE LAST FEW DAYS.

FLOW WILL BECOME MODERATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT. LEANED CLOSER TO THE MOS CONSENSUS FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE LAST SHORTWAVE EXITS THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. GRADUALLY REDUCED POPS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY MORNING...KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE
PCPN.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

FUSED A BLEND OF
DIFFERENT GUIDANCE...KEPT WARMER TEMPS FOR A MUGGY SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOW TURN NORTHWEST BY MONDAY BRINGING COOLER PLEASANT TEMPERATURES
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST...AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS BY 00Z FRI. IFR CIGS CURRENTLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...IMPROVING LAST IN THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AS USUAL.

A BIT OF A TOUGH CALL ON LOW STRATUS THIS EVENING...PARTICULARLY
FROM CKB-CRW AND POINTS SOUTH/EAST. DO BELIEVE THAT EVEN HERE LOW
STRATUS WILL EVENTUALLY SCATTER. FOG SHOULD BE A GOOD BET AT LEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL LOWLANDS OF WEST VIRGINIA...WITH LESS CERTAINTY
FURTHER WEST AND NORTH NEAR AND WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER WHERE TEMPS
ARE A BIT WARMER TODAY AND DEWPOINTS LOWER.

REDUCTIONS IN VIS AND CIG SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE BY THE 14Z-15Z
TIME FRAME AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CIG IMPROVEMENT MAY VARY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL THAT IT MAY NOT
COMPLETELY MATERIALIZE ACROSS THE EAST. TIMING...COVERAGE...AND
INTENSITY OF VIS REDUCTION MAY VARY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...50









000
FXUS61 KRLX 241928
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
328 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT EXITS SOUTH THIS EVENING. DRIER AIR REACHES INTO
SOUTHEAST OHIO FIRST...THEN CREEPS FURTHER EAST LATER TONIGHT. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL KEEP WET WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
18Z SHOWING SFC FRONT STILL JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE WIND SHIFT FINALLY MAKING IT THROUGH BKW IN THE PAST
HOUR. WATER VAPOR SAT AND VAD WIND PROFILERS SHOWING THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS A BIT FURTHER NORTHWEST...IT SERVING AS TODAY/S FOCAL
POINT FOR SHOWER/STORM REDEVELOPMENT. THE BACK EDGE OF THE GENERAL
PRECIP SHIELD/LINE IS NOW EAST OF HTS...SHOULD BE THROUGH CRW IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO TOPS...AND OVER THE EASTERN MTS 21Z-22Z. WILL LAG
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEHIND THE MAIN LINE FOR AN HOUR OR SO...BUT
EXPECT PRECIP TO END BY 00Z FRI.

OVERNIGHT...FLOW TURNS NORTHWEST WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSAGE WITH
SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NW ZONES BY 12Z FRI. CLOUDS ARE A BIT OF
A TOUGH CALL...WITH THE LATEST NAM RUN DEPICTING SOME TRAPPED LLVL
MOISTURE UNDERNEATH THE STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...WHILE
THE RAP/S LATEST RUNS SHOWING MORE ROBUST SCATTERING OF LLVL
MOISTURE...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE CLEARING. EXTENSIVE CUMULUS
FIELD NORTH OF OUR AREA LENDS SOME CREDENCE TO EXISTING LLVL
MOISTURE...AND WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT 00Z RAOBS IN THOSE
AREAS YIELD. IN SHORT...SHOULD WE CLEAR AS EXPECTED...MORE
FOG/REDUCED VIS WILL TRANSPIRE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.
SHOULD THE CLOUDS BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE/SCATTER...FOG WILL BE LESS
PREVALENT. VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREV FCST REGARDING OVERNIGHT
MINS...RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S NORTHWEST AND MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER
50S CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOWLANDS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OFF TO THE EAST. SHOULD BE
A VERY PLEASANT DAY IN STORE. A PINCH OF LLVL MOISTURE AROUND 850MB
PROBABLY WILL RESULT IN A FLAT-CU SCATTERED DECK...BUT THE AREA
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH WARM
ADVECTION ENSUING. MAY BE A MORE ROBUST CU-FIELD IN THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...AND HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING
THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NW ZONES AS A RIPPLE WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. HIGHS OF ABOUT 80F
FOR THE LOWLANDS PLUS OR MINUS A COUPLE OF DEGREES STILL APPEAR ON
TRACK...WHICH PREV FCST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON WITH ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL WITH PLEASANT WEATHER
FRIDAY.

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...EVIDENT IN H5 CHARTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER H5 SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS MID DAY SATURDAY
CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR PCPN INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MINOR TWEAKS
MADE TO POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT FOR
THE LAST FEW DAYS.

FLOW WILL BECOME MODERATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT. LEANED CLOSER TO THE MOS CONSENSUS FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE LAST SHORTWAVE EXITS THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. GRADUALLY REDUCED POPS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY MORNING...KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE
PCPN.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

FUSED A BLEND OF
DIFFERENT GUIDANCE...KEPT WARMER TEMPS FOR A MUGGY SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOW TURN NORTHWEST BY MONDAY BRINGING COOLER PLEASANT TEMPERATURES
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST...AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS BY 00Z FRI. IFR CIGS CURRENTLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...IMPROVING LAST IN THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AS USUAL.

A BIT OF A TOUGH CALL ON LOW STRATUS THIS EVENING...PARTICULARLY
FROM CKB-CRW AND POINTS SOUTH/EAST. DO BELIEVE THAT EVEN HERE LOW
STRATUS WILL EVENTUALLY SCATTER. FOG SHOULD BE A GOOD BET AT LEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL LOWLANDS OF WEST VIRGINIA...WITH LESS CERTAINTY
FURTHER WEST AND NORTH NEAR AND WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER WHERE TEMPS
ARE A BIT WARMER TODAY AND DEWPOINTS LOWER.

REDUCTIONS IN VIS AND CIG SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE BY THE 14Z-15Z
TIME FRAME AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CIG IMPROVEMENT MAY VARY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL THAT IT MAY NOT
COMPLETELY MATERIALIZE ACROSS THE EAST. TIMING...COVERAGE...AND
INTENSITY OF VIS REDUCTION MAY VARY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...50









000
FXUS61 KRLX 241928
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
328 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT EXITS SOUTH THIS EVENING. DRIER AIR REACHES INTO
SOUTHEAST OHIO FIRST...THEN CREEPS FURTHER EAST LATER TONIGHT. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL KEEP WET WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
18Z SHOWING SFC FRONT STILL JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE WIND SHIFT FINALLY MAKING IT THROUGH BKW IN THE PAST
HOUR. WATER VAPOR SAT AND VAD WIND PROFILERS SHOWING THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS A BIT FURTHER NORTHWEST...IT SERVING AS TODAY/S FOCAL
POINT FOR SHOWER/STORM REDEVELOPMENT. THE BACK EDGE OF THE GENERAL
PRECIP SHIELD/LINE IS NOW EAST OF HTS...SHOULD BE THROUGH CRW IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO TOPS...AND OVER THE EASTERN MTS 21Z-22Z. WILL LAG
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEHIND THE MAIN LINE FOR AN HOUR OR SO...BUT
EXPECT PRECIP TO END BY 00Z FRI.

OVERNIGHT...FLOW TURNS NORTHWEST WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSAGE WITH
SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NW ZONES BY 12Z FRI. CLOUDS ARE A BIT OF
A TOUGH CALL...WITH THE LATEST NAM RUN DEPICTING SOME TRAPPED LLVL
MOISTURE UNDERNEATH THE STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...WHILE
THE RAP/S LATEST RUNS SHOWING MORE ROBUST SCATTERING OF LLVL
MOISTURE...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE CLEARING. EXTENSIVE CUMULUS
FIELD NORTH OF OUR AREA LENDS SOME CREDENCE TO EXISTING LLVL
MOISTURE...AND WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT 00Z RAOBS IN THOSE
AREAS YIELD. IN SHORT...SHOULD WE CLEAR AS EXPECTED...MORE
FOG/REDUCED VIS WILL TRANSPIRE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.
SHOULD THE CLOUDS BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE/SCATTER...FOG WILL BE LESS
PREVALENT. VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREV FCST REGARDING OVERNIGHT
MINS...RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S NORTHWEST AND MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER
50S CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOWLANDS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OFF TO THE EAST. SHOULD BE
A VERY PLEASANT DAY IN STORE. A PINCH OF LLVL MOISTURE AROUND 850MB
PROBABLY WILL RESULT IN A FLAT-CU SCATTERED DECK...BUT THE AREA
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH WARM
ADVECTION ENSUING. MAY BE A MORE ROBUST CU-FIELD IN THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...AND HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING
THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NW ZONES AS A RIPPLE WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. HIGHS OF ABOUT 80F
FOR THE LOWLANDS PLUS OR MINUS A COUPLE OF DEGREES STILL APPEAR ON
TRACK...WHICH PREV FCST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON WITH ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL WITH PLEASANT WEATHER
FRIDAY.

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...EVIDENT IN H5 CHARTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER H5 SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS MID DAY SATURDAY
CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR PCPN INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MINOR TWEAKS
MADE TO POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT FOR
THE LAST FEW DAYS.

FLOW WILL BECOME MODERATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT. LEANED CLOSER TO THE MOS CONSENSUS FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE LAST SHORTWAVE EXITS THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. GRADUALLY REDUCED POPS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY MORNING...KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE
PCPN.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

FUSED A BLEND OF
DIFFERENT GUIDANCE...KEPT WARMER TEMPS FOR A MUGGY SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOW TURN NORTHWEST BY MONDAY BRINGING COOLER PLEASANT TEMPERATURES
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST...AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS BY 00Z FRI. IFR CIGS CURRENTLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...IMPROVING LAST IN THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AS USUAL.

A BIT OF A TOUGH CALL ON LOW STRATUS THIS EVENING...PARTICULARLY
FROM CKB-CRW AND POINTS SOUTH/EAST. DO BELIEVE THAT EVEN HERE LOW
STRATUS WILL EVENTUALLY SCATTER. FOG SHOULD BE A GOOD BET AT LEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL LOWLANDS OF WEST VIRGINIA...WITH LESS CERTAINTY
FURTHER WEST AND NORTH NEAR AND WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER WHERE TEMPS
ARE A BIT WARMER TODAY AND DEWPOINTS LOWER.

REDUCTIONS IN VIS AND CIG SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE BY THE 14Z-15Z
TIME FRAME AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CIG IMPROVEMENT MAY VARY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL THAT IT MAY NOT
COMPLETELY MATERIALIZE ACROSS THE EAST. TIMING...COVERAGE...AND
INTENSITY OF VIS REDUCTION MAY VARY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...50









000
FXUS61 KRLX 241814
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
214 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT SINKING SLOWLY SOUTH AS MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THIS
MORNING. DRIER AIR REACHES INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO FIRST...THEN CREEPS
FURTHER EAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
130 PM UPDATE...
AGAIN FINE-TUNED PRECIP AND THUNDER PER LATEST TRENDS. SFC FRONT
HAVING A TOUGH TIME CLIMBING OVER THE HILLS TO THE
SOUTHEAST...WITH THE WIND SHIFT FINALLY MAKING IT THROUGH BKW IN
THE PAST HOUR. BACK EDGE OF THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD/LINE NOW EAST
OF HTS...AND EXPECT IT TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA AND EXIT THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY THE 21Z-22Z TIME FRAME.

1030 AM UPDATE...
SEVERAL UPDATES TO ONGOING FORECAST. UPDATED/TIGHTENED UP POPS TO
REFLECT PERSISTENT BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE I64
CORRIDOR...WHICH APPEARS TO BE ASSOC WITH THE ELEVATED FRONT. EVEN
HAVE HAD A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES NORTHWEST OF CRW IN THE
PAST 30-45 MINS...SO ADDED IN SLIGHT THUNDER AS WELL FROM THERE
AND POINTS SOUTH. THAT SAME STORM CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN JACKSON
COUNTY BEARS WATCHING...AS IT IS MAKING A BEELINE STRAIGHT FOR
WEST-CENTRAL BRAXTON COUNTY WHICH RECEIVED A RADAR-ESTIMATED 2.50IN+
OF RAIN EARLIER THIS MORNING. FINALLY...UPDATED THE HOURLY TEMP
CURVE TODAY WITH CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND WEAK COLD
ADVECTION...EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN DROP A DEGREE OR
TWO BEFORE REBOUNDING MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CERTAINLY AN UNUSUAL PATTERN FOR LATE JULY. HAVE SURFACE FRONT
ABOUT ON TIME WITH OUR THINKING 24 HOURS AGO. AROUND
08Z...ANALYZING THE FRONT SOUTH OF EKN TO JUST S OF CRW TO NEAR
JKL AT 08Z. YET...EVEN SOUTH OF THE FRONT...KFCX RADAR HAS A
NORTHWEST FLOW AT 925 MB.

LOCAL DOWNPOURS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVERNIGHT.  RAIN RATES
OF .75 IN 15 MINUTES HAVE BEEN MEASURED.  THE HIGHEST 3 HOUR TOTAL
OVERNIGHT...THRU 08Z WAS LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING WAS AN ESTIMATED 3
INCHES ALONG THE BOONE/RALEIGH COUNTY LINE.  SO FAR...NO SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED.  ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT THE
REPETITIVE CELLS THIS PREDAWN THURSDAY IN CLAY COUNTY.

THE SECONDARY RAIN AREA BETWEEN HTS AND CVG SEEMS TO BE IN THE
850 MB THERMAL GRADIENT NORTH OF THE FRONT.  FIGURING IT WILL MOVE
EAST INTO CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA THIS MORNING.  ALSO FIGURING WITH
PW(S) LOWERING...THAT RAIN RATES WILL DECREASE THIS MORNING.  IF
NOT...FLASH FLOOD WATCHES OR WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

WITH 925 MB FLOW TURNING NE...STILL HAVE THE DRIER AIR HAVING A
TOUGH TIME PENETRATING INTO THE HEART OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA...BUT SHOULD ARRIVE LATE TODAY.  I CAN PICTURE THE SOUTHERN
PLATEAU OF SOUTHERN WV GETTING INTO LOW CLOUDS WITH A DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE SPREAD OF 5 DEGREES.  SO NOT YOUR "CHAMBER OF COMMERCE
DAY" PICTURED FOR PLACES LIKE BECKLEY.

WENT WITH SOME FOG OR LOW STRATUS 06Z TO 12Z FRIDAY IN THE WEST
VIRGINIA VALLEYS.  DID NOT GO QUITE AS CHILLY FROM THE ELK RIVER
VALLEY ON SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...THIS INCLUDES KANAWHA VALLEY AROUND CRW.
FIGURING ON THAT FOG AND WET TERRAIN HOLDING READINGS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER TO END THE WORK
WEEK. SEVERAL 500MB RIPPLES ARE PROGGED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. IT MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR THE ATMOSPHERE
TO MOISTEN BACK UP AS THE HIGH DEPARTS...BUT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES DO HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO HIGHS
AND LOWS BY BLENDING IN CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TWO DISTINCTIVE SHORT WAVE EVIDENT IN H5 CHARTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...KEEPING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AT
LEAST PARTS OF UP COMING WEEKEND. THE FIRST COMES ALONG THE BACK
SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND THE SECOND ONE IN A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

MODELS QPF FIELDS KEEP SATURDAY RELATIVELY DRY...AND TARGET MORE THE
SYSTEM ON SUNDAY WITH A VORTICITY MAX IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PASSING
OVER AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER OUR CWA. THE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE PCPN.
THEREFORE...INCREASED CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO LIKELIES FOR
SUNDAY...AS EXPECTED CONVECTION MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED A BLEND OF DIFFERENT GUIDANCE...WARMER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY PER DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION...WITH
A COOLER TREND AFTER THE WEEKENDS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST...AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS BY 00Z FRI. IFR CIGS CURRENTLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...IMPROVING LAST IN THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AS USUAL.

A BIT OF A TOUGH CALL ON LOW STRATUS THIS EVENING...PARTICULARLY
FROM CKB-CRW AND POINTS SOUTH/EAST. DO BELIEVE THAT EVEN HERE LOW
STRATUS WILL EVENTUALLY SCATTER. FOG SHOULD BE A GOOD BET AT LEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL LOWLANDS OF WEST VIRGINIA...WITH LESS CERTAINTY
FURTHER WEST AND NORTH NEAR AND WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER WHERE TEMPS
ARE A BIT WARMER TODAY AND DEWPOINTS LOWER.

REDUCTIONS IN VIS AND CIG SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE BY THE 14Z-15Z
TIME FRAME AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CIG IMPROVEMENT MAY VARY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL THAT IT MAY NOT
COMPLETELY MATERIALIZE ACROSS THE EAST. TIMING...COVERAGE...AND
INTENSITY OF VIS REDUCTION MAY VARY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/50
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...50








000
FXUS61 KRLX 241814
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
214 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT SINKING SLOWLY SOUTH AS MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THIS
MORNING. DRIER AIR REACHES INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO FIRST...THEN CREEPS
FURTHER EAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
130 PM UPDATE...
AGAIN FINE-TUNED PRECIP AND THUNDER PER LATEST TRENDS. SFC FRONT
HAVING A TOUGH TIME CLIMBING OVER THE HILLS TO THE
SOUTHEAST...WITH THE WIND SHIFT FINALLY MAKING IT THROUGH BKW IN
THE PAST HOUR. BACK EDGE OF THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD/LINE NOW EAST
OF HTS...AND EXPECT IT TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA AND EXIT THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY THE 21Z-22Z TIME FRAME.

1030 AM UPDATE...
SEVERAL UPDATES TO ONGOING FORECAST. UPDATED/TIGHTENED UP POPS TO
REFLECT PERSISTENT BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE I64
CORRIDOR...WHICH APPEARS TO BE ASSOC WITH THE ELEVATED FRONT. EVEN
HAVE HAD A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES NORTHWEST OF CRW IN THE
PAST 30-45 MINS...SO ADDED IN SLIGHT THUNDER AS WELL FROM THERE
AND POINTS SOUTH. THAT SAME STORM CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN JACKSON
COUNTY BEARS WATCHING...AS IT IS MAKING A BEELINE STRAIGHT FOR
WEST-CENTRAL BRAXTON COUNTY WHICH RECEIVED A RADAR-ESTIMATED 2.50IN+
OF RAIN EARLIER THIS MORNING. FINALLY...UPDATED THE HOURLY TEMP
CURVE TODAY WITH CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND WEAK COLD
ADVECTION...EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN DROP A DEGREE OR
TWO BEFORE REBOUNDING MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CERTAINLY AN UNUSUAL PATTERN FOR LATE JULY. HAVE SURFACE FRONT
ABOUT ON TIME WITH OUR THINKING 24 HOURS AGO. AROUND
08Z...ANALYZING THE FRONT SOUTH OF EKN TO JUST S OF CRW TO NEAR
JKL AT 08Z. YET...EVEN SOUTH OF THE FRONT...KFCX RADAR HAS A
NORTHWEST FLOW AT 925 MB.

LOCAL DOWNPOURS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVERNIGHT.  RAIN RATES
OF .75 IN 15 MINUTES HAVE BEEN MEASURED.  THE HIGHEST 3 HOUR TOTAL
OVERNIGHT...THRU 08Z WAS LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING WAS AN ESTIMATED 3
INCHES ALONG THE BOONE/RALEIGH COUNTY LINE.  SO FAR...NO SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED.  ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT THE
REPETITIVE CELLS THIS PREDAWN THURSDAY IN CLAY COUNTY.

THE SECONDARY RAIN AREA BETWEEN HTS AND CVG SEEMS TO BE IN THE
850 MB THERMAL GRADIENT NORTH OF THE FRONT.  FIGURING IT WILL MOVE
EAST INTO CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA THIS MORNING.  ALSO FIGURING WITH
PW(S) LOWERING...THAT RAIN RATES WILL DECREASE THIS MORNING.  IF
NOT...FLASH FLOOD WATCHES OR WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

WITH 925 MB FLOW TURNING NE...STILL HAVE THE DRIER AIR HAVING A
TOUGH TIME PENETRATING INTO THE HEART OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA...BUT SHOULD ARRIVE LATE TODAY.  I CAN PICTURE THE SOUTHERN
PLATEAU OF SOUTHERN WV GETTING INTO LOW CLOUDS WITH A DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE SPREAD OF 5 DEGREES.  SO NOT YOUR "CHAMBER OF COMMERCE
DAY" PICTURED FOR PLACES LIKE BECKLEY.

WENT WITH SOME FOG OR LOW STRATUS 06Z TO 12Z FRIDAY IN THE WEST
VIRGINIA VALLEYS.  DID NOT GO QUITE AS CHILLY FROM THE ELK RIVER
VALLEY ON SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...THIS INCLUDES KANAWHA VALLEY AROUND CRW.
FIGURING ON THAT FOG AND WET TERRAIN HOLDING READINGS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER TO END THE WORK
WEEK. SEVERAL 500MB RIPPLES ARE PROGGED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. IT MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR THE ATMOSPHERE
TO MOISTEN BACK UP AS THE HIGH DEPARTS...BUT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES DO HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO HIGHS
AND LOWS BY BLENDING IN CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TWO DISTINCTIVE SHORT WAVE EVIDENT IN H5 CHARTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...KEEPING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AT
LEAST PARTS OF UP COMING WEEKEND. THE FIRST COMES ALONG THE BACK
SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND THE SECOND ONE IN A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

MODELS QPF FIELDS KEEP SATURDAY RELATIVELY DRY...AND TARGET MORE THE
SYSTEM ON SUNDAY WITH A VORTICITY MAX IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PASSING
OVER AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER OUR CWA. THE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE PCPN.
THEREFORE...INCREASED CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO LIKELIES FOR
SUNDAY...AS EXPECTED CONVECTION MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED A BLEND OF DIFFERENT GUIDANCE...WARMER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY PER DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION...WITH
A COOLER TREND AFTER THE WEEKENDS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST...AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS BY 00Z FRI. IFR CIGS CURRENTLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...IMPROVING LAST IN THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AS USUAL.

A BIT OF A TOUGH CALL ON LOW STRATUS THIS EVENING...PARTICULARLY
FROM CKB-CRW AND POINTS SOUTH/EAST. DO BELIEVE THAT EVEN HERE LOW
STRATUS WILL EVENTUALLY SCATTER. FOG SHOULD BE A GOOD BET AT LEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL LOWLANDS OF WEST VIRGINIA...WITH LESS CERTAINTY
FURTHER WEST AND NORTH NEAR AND WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER WHERE TEMPS
ARE A BIT WARMER TODAY AND DEWPOINTS LOWER.

REDUCTIONS IN VIS AND CIG SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE BY THE 14Z-15Z
TIME FRAME AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CIG IMPROVEMENT MAY VARY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL THAT IT MAY NOT
COMPLETELY MATERIALIZE ACROSS THE EAST. TIMING...COVERAGE...AND
INTENSITY OF VIS REDUCTION MAY VARY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/50
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...50








000
FXUS61 KRLX 241814
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
214 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT SINKING SLOWLY SOUTH AS MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THIS
MORNING. DRIER AIR REACHES INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO FIRST...THEN CREEPS
FURTHER EAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
130 PM UPDATE...
AGAIN FINE-TUNED PRECIP AND THUNDER PER LATEST TRENDS. SFC FRONT
HAVING A TOUGH TIME CLIMBING OVER THE HILLS TO THE
SOUTHEAST...WITH THE WIND SHIFT FINALLY MAKING IT THROUGH BKW IN
THE PAST HOUR. BACK EDGE OF THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD/LINE NOW EAST
OF HTS...AND EXPECT IT TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA AND EXIT THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY THE 21Z-22Z TIME FRAME.

1030 AM UPDATE...
SEVERAL UPDATES TO ONGOING FORECAST. UPDATED/TIGHTENED UP POPS TO
REFLECT PERSISTENT BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE I64
CORRIDOR...WHICH APPEARS TO BE ASSOC WITH THE ELEVATED FRONT. EVEN
HAVE HAD A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES NORTHWEST OF CRW IN THE
PAST 30-45 MINS...SO ADDED IN SLIGHT THUNDER AS WELL FROM THERE
AND POINTS SOUTH. THAT SAME STORM CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN JACKSON
COUNTY BEARS WATCHING...AS IT IS MAKING A BEELINE STRAIGHT FOR
WEST-CENTRAL BRAXTON COUNTY WHICH RECEIVED A RADAR-ESTIMATED 2.50IN+
OF RAIN EARLIER THIS MORNING. FINALLY...UPDATED THE HOURLY TEMP
CURVE TODAY WITH CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND WEAK COLD
ADVECTION...EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN DROP A DEGREE OR
TWO BEFORE REBOUNDING MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CERTAINLY AN UNUSUAL PATTERN FOR LATE JULY. HAVE SURFACE FRONT
ABOUT ON TIME WITH OUR THINKING 24 HOURS AGO. AROUND
08Z...ANALYZING THE FRONT SOUTH OF EKN TO JUST S OF CRW TO NEAR
JKL AT 08Z. YET...EVEN SOUTH OF THE FRONT...KFCX RADAR HAS A
NORTHWEST FLOW AT 925 MB.

LOCAL DOWNPOURS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVERNIGHT.  RAIN RATES
OF .75 IN 15 MINUTES HAVE BEEN MEASURED.  THE HIGHEST 3 HOUR TOTAL
OVERNIGHT...THRU 08Z WAS LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING WAS AN ESTIMATED 3
INCHES ALONG THE BOONE/RALEIGH COUNTY LINE.  SO FAR...NO SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED.  ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT THE
REPETITIVE CELLS THIS PREDAWN THURSDAY IN CLAY COUNTY.

THE SECONDARY RAIN AREA BETWEEN HTS AND CVG SEEMS TO BE IN THE
850 MB THERMAL GRADIENT NORTH OF THE FRONT.  FIGURING IT WILL MOVE
EAST INTO CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA THIS MORNING.  ALSO FIGURING WITH
PW(S) LOWERING...THAT RAIN RATES WILL DECREASE THIS MORNING.  IF
NOT...FLASH FLOOD WATCHES OR WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

WITH 925 MB FLOW TURNING NE...STILL HAVE THE DRIER AIR HAVING A
TOUGH TIME PENETRATING INTO THE HEART OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA...BUT SHOULD ARRIVE LATE TODAY.  I CAN PICTURE THE SOUTHERN
PLATEAU OF SOUTHERN WV GETTING INTO LOW CLOUDS WITH A DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE SPREAD OF 5 DEGREES.  SO NOT YOUR "CHAMBER OF COMMERCE
DAY" PICTURED FOR PLACES LIKE BECKLEY.

WENT WITH SOME FOG OR LOW STRATUS 06Z TO 12Z FRIDAY IN THE WEST
VIRGINIA VALLEYS.  DID NOT GO QUITE AS CHILLY FROM THE ELK RIVER
VALLEY ON SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...THIS INCLUDES KANAWHA VALLEY AROUND CRW.
FIGURING ON THAT FOG AND WET TERRAIN HOLDING READINGS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER TO END THE WORK
WEEK. SEVERAL 500MB RIPPLES ARE PROGGED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. IT MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR THE ATMOSPHERE
TO MOISTEN BACK UP AS THE HIGH DEPARTS...BUT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES DO HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO HIGHS
AND LOWS BY BLENDING IN CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TWO DISTINCTIVE SHORT WAVE EVIDENT IN H5 CHARTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...KEEPING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AT
LEAST PARTS OF UP COMING WEEKEND. THE FIRST COMES ALONG THE BACK
SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND THE SECOND ONE IN A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

MODELS QPF FIELDS KEEP SATURDAY RELATIVELY DRY...AND TARGET MORE THE
SYSTEM ON SUNDAY WITH A VORTICITY MAX IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PASSING
OVER AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER OUR CWA. THE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE PCPN.
THEREFORE...INCREASED CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO LIKELIES FOR
SUNDAY...AS EXPECTED CONVECTION MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED A BLEND OF DIFFERENT GUIDANCE...WARMER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY PER DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION...WITH
A COOLER TREND AFTER THE WEEKENDS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST...AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS BY 00Z FRI. IFR CIGS CURRENTLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...IMPROVING LAST IN THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AS USUAL.

A BIT OF A TOUGH CALL ON LOW STRATUS THIS EVENING...PARTICULARLY
FROM CKB-CRW AND POINTS SOUTH/EAST. DO BELIEVE THAT EVEN HERE LOW
STRATUS WILL EVENTUALLY SCATTER. FOG SHOULD BE A GOOD BET AT LEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL LOWLANDS OF WEST VIRGINIA...WITH LESS CERTAINTY
FURTHER WEST AND NORTH NEAR AND WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER WHERE TEMPS
ARE A BIT WARMER TODAY AND DEWPOINTS LOWER.

REDUCTIONS IN VIS AND CIG SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE BY THE 14Z-15Z
TIME FRAME AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CIG IMPROVEMENT MAY VARY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL THAT IT MAY NOT
COMPLETELY MATERIALIZE ACROSS THE EAST. TIMING...COVERAGE...AND
INTENSITY OF VIS REDUCTION MAY VARY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/50
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...50








000
FXUS61 KRLX 241814
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
214 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT SINKING SLOWLY SOUTH AS MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THIS
MORNING. DRIER AIR REACHES INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO FIRST...THEN CREEPS
FURTHER EAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
130 PM UPDATE...
AGAIN FINE-TUNED PRECIP AND THUNDER PER LATEST TRENDS. SFC FRONT
HAVING A TOUGH TIME CLIMBING OVER THE HILLS TO THE
SOUTHEAST...WITH THE WIND SHIFT FINALLY MAKING IT THROUGH BKW IN
THE PAST HOUR. BACK EDGE OF THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD/LINE NOW EAST
OF HTS...AND EXPECT IT TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA AND EXIT THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY THE 21Z-22Z TIME FRAME.

1030 AM UPDATE...
SEVERAL UPDATES TO ONGOING FORECAST. UPDATED/TIGHTENED UP POPS TO
REFLECT PERSISTENT BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE I64
CORRIDOR...WHICH APPEARS TO BE ASSOC WITH THE ELEVATED FRONT. EVEN
HAVE HAD A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES NORTHWEST OF CRW IN THE
PAST 30-45 MINS...SO ADDED IN SLIGHT THUNDER AS WELL FROM THERE
AND POINTS SOUTH. THAT SAME STORM CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN JACKSON
COUNTY BEARS WATCHING...AS IT IS MAKING A BEELINE STRAIGHT FOR
WEST-CENTRAL BRAXTON COUNTY WHICH RECEIVED A RADAR-ESTIMATED 2.50IN+
OF RAIN EARLIER THIS MORNING. FINALLY...UPDATED THE HOURLY TEMP
CURVE TODAY WITH CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND WEAK COLD
ADVECTION...EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN DROP A DEGREE OR
TWO BEFORE REBOUNDING MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CERTAINLY AN UNUSUAL PATTERN FOR LATE JULY. HAVE SURFACE FRONT
ABOUT ON TIME WITH OUR THINKING 24 HOURS AGO. AROUND
08Z...ANALYZING THE FRONT SOUTH OF EKN TO JUST S OF CRW TO NEAR
JKL AT 08Z. YET...EVEN SOUTH OF THE FRONT...KFCX RADAR HAS A
NORTHWEST FLOW AT 925 MB.

LOCAL DOWNPOURS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVERNIGHT.  RAIN RATES
OF .75 IN 15 MINUTES HAVE BEEN MEASURED.  THE HIGHEST 3 HOUR TOTAL
OVERNIGHT...THRU 08Z WAS LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING WAS AN ESTIMATED 3
INCHES ALONG THE BOONE/RALEIGH COUNTY LINE.  SO FAR...NO SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED.  ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT THE
REPETITIVE CELLS THIS PREDAWN THURSDAY IN CLAY COUNTY.

THE SECONDARY RAIN AREA BETWEEN HTS AND CVG SEEMS TO BE IN THE
850 MB THERMAL GRADIENT NORTH OF THE FRONT.  FIGURING IT WILL MOVE
EAST INTO CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA THIS MORNING.  ALSO FIGURING WITH
PW(S) LOWERING...THAT RAIN RATES WILL DECREASE THIS MORNING.  IF
NOT...FLASH FLOOD WATCHES OR WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

WITH 925 MB FLOW TURNING NE...STILL HAVE THE DRIER AIR HAVING A
TOUGH TIME PENETRATING INTO THE HEART OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA...BUT SHOULD ARRIVE LATE TODAY.  I CAN PICTURE THE SOUTHERN
PLATEAU OF SOUTHERN WV GETTING INTO LOW CLOUDS WITH A DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE SPREAD OF 5 DEGREES.  SO NOT YOUR "CHAMBER OF COMMERCE
DAY" PICTURED FOR PLACES LIKE BECKLEY.

WENT WITH SOME FOG OR LOW STRATUS 06Z TO 12Z FRIDAY IN THE WEST
VIRGINIA VALLEYS.  DID NOT GO QUITE AS CHILLY FROM THE ELK RIVER
VALLEY ON SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...THIS INCLUDES KANAWHA VALLEY AROUND CRW.
FIGURING ON THAT FOG AND WET TERRAIN HOLDING READINGS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER TO END THE WORK
WEEK. SEVERAL 500MB RIPPLES ARE PROGGED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. IT MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR THE ATMOSPHERE
TO MOISTEN BACK UP AS THE HIGH DEPARTS...BUT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES DO HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO HIGHS
AND LOWS BY BLENDING IN CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TWO DISTINCTIVE SHORT WAVE EVIDENT IN H5 CHARTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...KEEPING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AT
LEAST PARTS OF UP COMING WEEKEND. THE FIRST COMES ALONG THE BACK
SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND THE SECOND ONE IN A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

MODELS QPF FIELDS KEEP SATURDAY RELATIVELY DRY...AND TARGET MORE THE
SYSTEM ON SUNDAY WITH A VORTICITY MAX IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PASSING
OVER AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER OUR CWA. THE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE PCPN.
THEREFORE...INCREASED CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO LIKELIES FOR
SUNDAY...AS EXPECTED CONVECTION MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED A BLEND OF DIFFERENT GUIDANCE...WARMER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY PER DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION...WITH
A COOLER TREND AFTER THE WEEKENDS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST...AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS BY 00Z FRI. IFR CIGS CURRENTLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...IMPROVING LAST IN THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AS USUAL.

A BIT OF A TOUGH CALL ON LOW STRATUS THIS EVENING...PARTICULARLY
FROM CKB-CRW AND POINTS SOUTH/EAST. DO BELIEVE THAT EVEN HERE LOW
STRATUS WILL EVENTUALLY SCATTER. FOG SHOULD BE A GOOD BET AT LEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL LOWLANDS OF WEST VIRGINIA...WITH LESS CERTAINTY
FURTHER WEST AND NORTH NEAR AND WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER WHERE TEMPS
ARE A BIT WARMER TODAY AND DEWPOINTS LOWER.

REDUCTIONS IN VIS AND CIG SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE BY THE 14Z-15Z
TIME FRAME AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CIG IMPROVEMENT MAY VARY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL THAT IT MAY NOT
COMPLETELY MATERIALIZE ACROSS THE EAST. TIMING...COVERAGE...AND
INTENSITY OF VIS REDUCTION MAY VARY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/50
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...50








000
FXUS61 KRLX 241452 CCA
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1048 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT SINKING SLOWLY SOUTH AS MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THIS
MORNING. DRIER AIR REACHES INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO FIRST...THEN CREEPS
FURTHER EAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...
SEVERAL UPDATES TO ONGOING FORECAST. UPDATED/TIGHTENED UP POPS TO
REFLECT PERSISTENT BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE I64
CORRIDOR...WHICH APPEARS TO BE ASSOC WITH THE ELEVATED FRONT. EVEN
HAVE HAD A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES NORTHWEST OF CRW IN THE
PAST 30-45 MINS...SO ADDED IN SLIGHT THUNDER AS WELL FROM THERE
AND POINTS SOUTH. THAT SAME STORM CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN JACKSON
COUNTY BEARS WATCHING...AS IT IS MAKING A BEELINE STRAIGHT FOR
WEST-CENTRAL BRAXTON COUNTY WHICH RECEIVED A RADAR-ESTIMATED 2.50IN+
OF RAIN EARLIER THIS MORNING. FINALLY...UPDATED THE HOURLY TEMP
CURVE TODAY WITH CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND WEAK COLD
ADVECTION...EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN DROP A DEGREE OR
TWO BEFORE REBOUNDING MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CERTAINLY AN UNUSUAL PATTERN FOR LATE JULY. HAVE SURFACE FRONT
ABOUT ON TIME WITH OUR THINKING 24 HOURS AGO. AROUND
08Z...ANALYZING THE FRONT SOUTH OF EKN TO JUST S OF CRW TO NEAR
JKL AT 08Z. YET...EVEN SOUTH OF THE FRONT...KFCX RADAR HAS A
NORTHWEST FLOW AT 925 MB.

LOCAL DOWNPOURS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVERNIGHT.  RAIN RATES
OF .75 IN 15 MINUTES HAVE BEEN MEASURED.  THE HIGHEST 3 HOUR TOTAL
OVERNIGHT...THRU 08Z WAS LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING WAS AN ESTIMATED 3
INCHES ALONG THE BOONE/RALEIGH COUNTY LINE.  SO FAR...NO SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED.  ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT THE
REPETITIVE CELLS THIS PREDAWN THURSDAY IN CLAY COUNTY.

THE SECONDARY RAIN AREA BETWEEN HTS AND CVG SEEMS TO BE IN THE
850 MB THERMAL GRADIENT NORTH OF THE FRONT.  FIGURING IT WILL MOVE
EAST INTO CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA THIS MORNING.  ALSO FIGURING WITH
PW(S) LOWERING...THAT RAIN RATES WILL DECREASE THIS MORNING.  IF
NOT...FLASH FLOOD WATCHES OR WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

WITH 925 MB FLOW TURNING NE...STILL HAVE THE DRIER AIR HAVING A
TOUGH TIME PENETRATING INTO THE HEART OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA...BUT SHOULD ARRIVE LATE TODAY.  I CAN PICTURE THE SOUTHERN
PLATEAU OF SOUTHERN WV GETTING INTO LOW CLOUDS WITH A DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE SPREAD OF 5 DEGREES.  SO NOT YOUR "CHAMBER OF COMMERCE
DAY" PICTURED FOR PLACES LIKE BECKLEY.

WENT WITH SOME FOG OR LOW STRATUS 06Z TO 12Z FRIDAY IN THE WEST
VIRGINIA VALLEYS.  DID NOT GO QUITE AS CHILLY FROM THE ELK RIVER
VALLEY ON SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...THIS INCLUDES KANAWHA VALLEY AROUND CRW.
FIGURING ON THAT FOG AND WET TERRAIN HOLDING READINGS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER TO END THE WORK
WEEK. SEVERAL 500MB RIPPLES ARE PROGGED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. IT MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR THE ATMOSPHERE
TO MOISTEN BACK UP AS THE HIGH DEPARTS...BUT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES DO HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO HIGHS
AND LOWS BY BLENDING IN CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TWO DISTINCTIVE SHORT WAVE EVIDENT IN H5 CHARTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...KEEPING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AT
LEAST PARTS OF UP COMING WEEKEND. THE FIRST COMES ALONG THE BACK
SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND THE SECOND ONE IN A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

MODELS QPF FIELDS KEEP SATURDAY RELATIVELY DRY...AND TARGET MORE THE
SYSTEM ON SUNDAY WITH A VORTICITY MAX IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PASSING
OVER AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER OUR CWA. THE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE PCPN.
THEREFORE...INCREASED CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO LIKELIES FOR
SUNDAY...AS EXPECTED CONVECTION MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED A BLEND OF DIFFERENT GUIDANCE...WARMER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY PER DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION...WITH
A COOLER TREND AFTER THE WEEKENDS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR 10Z...FRONT SOUTH OF CRW AND WAS APPROACHING BKW. LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNING NNE BEHIND FRONT...SO DRIER AIR NOW MOVING SSWW INTO
SOUTHERN OHIO...BEHIND MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WITH CEILINGS
LIFTING.

500 MB DISTURBANCE ALOFT PASSES DURING THE LATE MORNING.  THIS KEEPS
THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER WEST VIRGINIA...NORTH OF THE SURFACE
FRONT...THROUGH 15Z. HAVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED LOW
CEILINGS FIGURED TO LINGER MOST OF THE DAY TODAY OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS INCLUDING BKW.  THE NORTH WIND THAT DEVELOPS MAY
ALSO KEEP VSBY DOWN OVER THE HIGH GROUND INCLUDING BKW WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON.  LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRYING TO FIGURE THE DOMINATE VSBY AND
CEILING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS.

ALL IN ALL...WHILE CONDITIONS IMPROVE OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO...HAVE
WIDESPREAD IFR IN THE LINGERING LIGHTER SHOWERS THROUGH THE
MORNING.  OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS...WIDESPREAD CEILINGS 1 TO 2 THSD FT
EXCEPT AOB 1 THSD FT OVER MOUNTAINS.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM STILL
POSSIBLE VOER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...UNTIL 500 MB WAVE
PASSES DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO MIDDAY.

CEILINGS LIFTING INTO THE 3 TO 5 THSD FT BROKEN RANGE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OHIO BEFORE 12Z...THEN CREEPING INTO WEST VIRGINIA DURING
THE DAY...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING IN THE CKB TO PKB TO HTS
CORRIDOR FIRST.

WITH CLEARING REACHING FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN WEST VIRGINIA
21Z TO 06Z...SURFACE BASED FOG OR LOW STRATUS AOB 1 THSD MAY BEGIN
TO FORM OVER WEST VIRGINIA...IN THE COOLER AIR BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z
ON FRIDAY.
HAVE FOG ALONG THE OHIO RIVER FORMING LATER IN THE PREDAWN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY MAY STAY LOWER...OR OSCILLATE...
IN LOW CLOUDS AND A NORTH WIND AT BKW DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
THURSDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/50
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...KTB











000
FXUS61 KRLX 241452 CCA
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1048 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT SINKING SLOWLY SOUTH AS MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THIS
MORNING. DRIER AIR REACHES INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO FIRST...THEN CREEPS
FURTHER EAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...
SEVERAL UPDATES TO ONGOING FORECAST. UPDATED/TIGHTENED UP POPS TO
REFLECT PERSISTENT BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE I64
CORRIDOR...WHICH APPEARS TO BE ASSOC WITH THE ELEVATED FRONT. EVEN
HAVE HAD A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES NORTHWEST OF CRW IN THE
PAST 30-45 MINS...SO ADDED IN SLIGHT THUNDER AS WELL FROM THERE
AND POINTS SOUTH. THAT SAME STORM CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN JACKSON
COUNTY BEARS WATCHING...AS IT IS MAKING A BEELINE STRAIGHT FOR
WEST-CENTRAL BRAXTON COUNTY WHICH RECEIVED A RADAR-ESTIMATED 2.50IN+
OF RAIN EARLIER THIS MORNING. FINALLY...UPDATED THE HOURLY TEMP
CURVE TODAY WITH CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND WEAK COLD
ADVECTION...EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN DROP A DEGREE OR
TWO BEFORE REBOUNDING MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CERTAINLY AN UNUSUAL PATTERN FOR LATE JULY. HAVE SURFACE FRONT
ABOUT ON TIME WITH OUR THINKING 24 HOURS AGO. AROUND
08Z...ANALYZING THE FRONT SOUTH OF EKN TO JUST S OF CRW TO NEAR
JKL AT 08Z. YET...EVEN SOUTH OF THE FRONT...KFCX RADAR HAS A
NORTHWEST FLOW AT 925 MB.

LOCAL DOWNPOURS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVERNIGHT.  RAIN RATES
OF .75 IN 15 MINUTES HAVE BEEN MEASURED.  THE HIGHEST 3 HOUR TOTAL
OVERNIGHT...THRU 08Z WAS LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING WAS AN ESTIMATED 3
INCHES ALONG THE BOONE/RALEIGH COUNTY LINE.  SO FAR...NO SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED.  ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT THE
REPETITIVE CELLS THIS PREDAWN THURSDAY IN CLAY COUNTY.

THE SECONDARY RAIN AREA BETWEEN HTS AND CVG SEEMS TO BE IN THE
850 MB THERMAL GRADIENT NORTH OF THE FRONT.  FIGURING IT WILL MOVE
EAST INTO CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA THIS MORNING.  ALSO FIGURING WITH
PW(S) LOWERING...THAT RAIN RATES WILL DECREASE THIS MORNING.  IF
NOT...FLASH FLOOD WATCHES OR WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

WITH 925 MB FLOW TURNING NE...STILL HAVE THE DRIER AIR HAVING A
TOUGH TIME PENETRATING INTO THE HEART OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA...BUT SHOULD ARRIVE LATE TODAY.  I CAN PICTURE THE SOUTHERN
PLATEAU OF SOUTHERN WV GETTING INTO LOW CLOUDS WITH A DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE SPREAD OF 5 DEGREES.  SO NOT YOUR "CHAMBER OF COMMERCE
DAY" PICTURED FOR PLACES LIKE BECKLEY.

WENT WITH SOME FOG OR LOW STRATUS 06Z TO 12Z FRIDAY IN THE WEST
VIRGINIA VALLEYS.  DID NOT GO QUITE AS CHILLY FROM THE ELK RIVER
VALLEY ON SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...THIS INCLUDES KANAWHA VALLEY AROUND CRW.
FIGURING ON THAT FOG AND WET TERRAIN HOLDING READINGS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER TO END THE WORK
WEEK. SEVERAL 500MB RIPPLES ARE PROGGED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. IT MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR THE ATMOSPHERE
TO MOISTEN BACK UP AS THE HIGH DEPARTS...BUT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES DO HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO HIGHS
AND LOWS BY BLENDING IN CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TWO DISTINCTIVE SHORT WAVE EVIDENT IN H5 CHARTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...KEEPING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AT
LEAST PARTS OF UP COMING WEEKEND. THE FIRST COMES ALONG THE BACK
SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND THE SECOND ONE IN A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

MODELS QPF FIELDS KEEP SATURDAY RELATIVELY DRY...AND TARGET MORE THE
SYSTEM ON SUNDAY WITH A VORTICITY MAX IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PASSING
OVER AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER OUR CWA. THE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE PCPN.
THEREFORE...INCREASED CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO LIKELIES FOR
SUNDAY...AS EXPECTED CONVECTION MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED A BLEND OF DIFFERENT GUIDANCE...WARMER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY PER DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION...WITH
A COOLER TREND AFTER THE WEEKENDS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR 10Z...FRONT SOUTH OF CRW AND WAS APPROACHING BKW. LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNING NNE BEHIND FRONT...SO DRIER AIR NOW MOVING SSWW INTO
SOUTHERN OHIO...BEHIND MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WITH CEILINGS
LIFTING.

500 MB DISTURBANCE ALOFT PASSES DURING THE LATE MORNING.  THIS KEEPS
THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER WEST VIRGINIA...NORTH OF THE SURFACE
FRONT...THROUGH 15Z. HAVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED LOW
CEILINGS FIGURED TO LINGER MOST OF THE DAY TODAY OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS INCLUDING BKW.  THE NORTH WIND THAT DEVELOPS MAY
ALSO KEEP VSBY DOWN OVER THE HIGH GROUND INCLUDING BKW WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON.  LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRYING TO FIGURE THE DOMINATE VSBY AND
CEILING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS.

ALL IN ALL...WHILE CONDITIONS IMPROVE OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO...HAVE
WIDESPREAD IFR IN THE LINGERING LIGHTER SHOWERS THROUGH THE
MORNING.  OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS...WIDESPREAD CEILINGS 1 TO 2 THSD FT
EXCEPT AOB 1 THSD FT OVER MOUNTAINS.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM STILL
POSSIBLE VOER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...UNTIL 500 MB WAVE
PASSES DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO MIDDAY.

CEILINGS LIFTING INTO THE 3 TO 5 THSD FT BROKEN RANGE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OHIO BEFORE 12Z...THEN CREEPING INTO WEST VIRGINIA DURING
THE DAY...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING IN THE CKB TO PKB TO HTS
CORRIDOR FIRST.

WITH CLEARING REACHING FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN WEST VIRGINIA
21Z TO 06Z...SURFACE BASED FOG OR LOW STRATUS AOB 1 THSD MAY BEGIN
TO FORM OVER WEST VIRGINIA...IN THE COOLER AIR BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z
ON FRIDAY.
HAVE FOG ALONG THE OHIO RIVER FORMING LATER IN THE PREDAWN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY MAY STAY LOWER...OR OSCILLATE...
IN LOW CLOUDS AND A NORTH WIND AT BKW DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
THURSDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/50
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...KTB












000
FXUS61 KRLX 241448
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1048 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT SINKING SLOWLY SOUTH AS MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THIS
MORNING. DRIER AIR REACHES INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO FIRST...THEN CREEPS
FURTHER EAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...
SEVERAL UPDATES TO ONGOING FORECAST. UPDATED/TIGHTENED UP POPS TO
REFLECT PERSISTENT BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE I64
CORRIDOR...WHICH APPEARS TO BE ASSOC WITH THE ELEVATED FRONT. EVEN
HAVE HAD A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES NORTHWEST OF CRW IN THE
PAST 30-45 MINS...SO ADDED IN SLIGHT THUNDER AS WELL FROM THERE
AND POINTS SOUTH. THAT SAME STORM CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN JACKSON
COUNTY BEARS WATCHING...AS IT IS MAKING A BEELINE STRAIGHT FOR
WEST-CENTRAL CLAY COUNTY WHICH RECEIVED A RADAR-ESTIMATED 2.50IN+
OF RAIN EARLIER THIS MORNING. FINALLY...UPDATED THE HOURLY TEMP
CURVE TODAY WITH CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND WEAK COLD
ADVECTION...EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN DROP A DEGREE OR
TWO BEFORE REBOUNDING MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CERTAINLY AN UNUSUAL PATTERN FOR LATE JULY. HAVE SURFACE FRONT
ABOUT ON TIME WITH OUR THINKING 24 HOURS AGO. AROUND
08Z...ANALYZING THE FRONT SOUTH OF EKN TO JUST S OF CRW TO NEAR
JKL AT 08Z. YET...EVEN SOUTH OF THE FRONT...KFCX RADAR HAS A
NORTHWEST FLOW AT 925 MB.

LOCAL DOWNPOURS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVERNIGHT.  RAIN RATES
OF .75 IN 15 MINUTES HAVE BEEN MEASURED.  THE HIGHEST 3 HOUR TOTAL
OVERNIGHT...THRU 08Z WAS LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING WAS AN ESTIMATED 3
INCHES ALONG THE BOONE/RALEIGH COUNTY LINE.  SO FAR...NO SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED.  ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT THE
REPETITIVE CELLS THIS PREDAWN THURSDAY IN CLAY COUNTY.

THE SECONDARY RAIN AREA BETWEEN HTS AND CVG SEEMS TO BE IN THE
850 MB THERMAL GRADIENT NORTH OF THE FRONT.  FIGURING IT WILL MOVE
EAST INTO CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA THIS MORNING.  ALSO FIGURING WITH
PW(S) LOWERING...THAT RAIN RATES WILL DECREASE THIS MORNING.  IF
NOT...FLASH FLOOD WATCHES OR WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

WITH 925 MB FLOW TURNING NE...STILL HAVE THE DRIER AIR HAVING A
TOUGH TIME PENETRATING INTO THE HEART OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA...BUT SHOULD ARRIVE LATE TODAY.  I CAN PICTURE THE SOUTHERN
PLATEAU OF SOUTHERN WV GETTING INTO LOW CLOUDS WITH A DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE SPREAD OF 5 DEGREES.  SO NOT YOUR "CHAMBER OF COMMERCE
DAY" PICTURED FOR PLACES LIKE BECKLEY.

WENT WITH SOME FOG OR LOW STRATUS 06Z TO 12Z FRIDAY IN THE WEST
VIRGINIA VALLEYS.  DID NOT GO QUITE AS CHILLY FROM THE ELK RIVER
VALLEY ON SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...THIS INCLUDES KANAWHA VALLEY AROUND CRW.
FIGURING ON THAT FOG AND WET TERRAIN HOLDING READINGS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER TO END THE WORK
WEEK. SEVERAL 500MB RIPPLES ARE PROGGED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. IT MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR THE ATMOSPHERE
TO MOISTEN BACK UP AS THE HIGH DEPARTS...BUT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES DO HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO HIGHS
AND LOWS BY BLENDING IN CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TWO DISTINCTIVE SHORT WAVE EVIDENT IN H5 CHARTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...KEEPING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AT
LEAST PARTS OF UP COMING WEEKEND. THE FIRST COMES ALONG THE BACK
SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND THE SECOND ONE IN A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

MODELS QPF FIELDS KEEP SATURDAY RELATIVELY DRY...AND TARGET MORE THE
SYSTEM ON SUNDAY WITH A VORTICITY MAX IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PASSING
OVER AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER OUR CWA. THE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE PCPN.
THEREFORE...INCREASED CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO LIKELIES FOR
SUNDAY...AS EXPECTED CONVECTION MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED A BLEND OF DIFFERENT GUIDANCE...WARMER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY PER DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION...WITH
A COOLER TREND AFTER THE WEEKENDS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR 10Z...FRONT SOUTH OF CRW AND WAS APPROACHING BKW. LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNING NNE BEHIND FRONT...SO DRIER AIR NOW MOVING SSWW INTO
SOUTHERN OHIO...BEHIND MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WITH CEILINGS
LIFTING.

500 MB DISTURBANCE ALOFT PASSES DURING THE LATE MORNING.  THIS KEEPS
THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER WEST VIRGINIA...NORTH OF THE SURFACE
FRONT...THROUGH 15Z. HAVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED LOW
CEILINGS FIGURED TO LINGER MOST OF THE DAY TODAY OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS INCLUDING BKW.  THE NORTH WIND THAT DEVELOPS MAY
ALSO KEEP VSBY DOWN OVER THE HIGH GROUND INCLUDING BKW WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON.  LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRYING TO FIGURE THE DOMINATE VSBY AND
CEILING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS.

ALL IN ALL...WHILE CONDITIONS IMPROVE OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO...HAVE
WIDESPREAD IFR IN THE LINGERING LIGHTER SHOWERS THROUGH THE
MORNING.  OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS...WIDESPREAD CEILINGS 1 TO 2 THSD FT
EXCEPT AOB 1 THSD FT OVER MOUNTAINS.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM STILL
POSSIBLE VOER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...UNTIL 500 MB WAVE
PASSES DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO MIDDAY.

CEILINGS LIFTING INTO THE 3 TO 5 THSD FT BROKEN RANGE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OHIO BEFORE 12Z...THEN CREEPING INTO WEST VIRGINIA DURING
THE DAY...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING IN THE CKB TO PKB TO HTS
CORRIDOR FIRST.

WITH CLEARING REACHING FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN WEST VIRGINIA
21Z TO 06Z...SURFACE BASED FOG OR LOW STRATUS AOB 1 THSD MAY BEGIN
TO FORM OVER WEST VIRGINIA...IN THE COOLER AIR BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z
ON FRIDAY.
HAVE FOG ALONG THE OHIO RIVER FORMING LATER IN THE PREDAWN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY MAY STAY LOWER...OR OSCILLATE...
IN LOW CLOUDS AND A NORTH WIND AT BKW DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
THURSDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/50
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...KTB









000
FXUS61 KRLX 241448
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1048 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT SINKING SLOWLY SOUTH AS MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THIS
MORNING. DRIER AIR REACHES INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO FIRST...THEN CREEPS
FURTHER EAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...
SEVERAL UPDATES TO ONGOING FORECAST. UPDATED/TIGHTENED UP POPS TO
REFLECT PERSISTENT BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE I64
CORRIDOR...WHICH APPEARS TO BE ASSOC WITH THE ELEVATED FRONT. EVEN
HAVE HAD A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES NORTHWEST OF CRW IN THE
PAST 30-45 MINS...SO ADDED IN SLIGHT THUNDER AS WELL FROM THERE
AND POINTS SOUTH. THAT SAME STORM CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN JACKSON
COUNTY BEARS WATCHING...AS IT IS MAKING A BEELINE STRAIGHT FOR
WEST-CENTRAL CLAY COUNTY WHICH RECEIVED A RADAR-ESTIMATED 2.50IN+
OF RAIN EARLIER THIS MORNING. FINALLY...UPDATED THE HOURLY TEMP
CURVE TODAY WITH CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND WEAK COLD
ADVECTION...EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN DROP A DEGREE OR
TWO BEFORE REBOUNDING MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CERTAINLY AN UNUSUAL PATTERN FOR LATE JULY. HAVE SURFACE FRONT
ABOUT ON TIME WITH OUR THINKING 24 HOURS AGO. AROUND
08Z...ANALYZING THE FRONT SOUTH OF EKN TO JUST S OF CRW TO NEAR
JKL AT 08Z. YET...EVEN SOUTH OF THE FRONT...KFCX RADAR HAS A
NORTHWEST FLOW AT 925 MB.

LOCAL DOWNPOURS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVERNIGHT.  RAIN RATES
OF .75 IN 15 MINUTES HAVE BEEN MEASURED.  THE HIGHEST 3 HOUR TOTAL
OVERNIGHT...THRU 08Z WAS LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING WAS AN ESTIMATED 3
INCHES ALONG THE BOONE/RALEIGH COUNTY LINE.  SO FAR...NO SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED.  ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT THE
REPETITIVE CELLS THIS PREDAWN THURSDAY IN CLAY COUNTY.

THE SECONDARY RAIN AREA BETWEEN HTS AND CVG SEEMS TO BE IN THE
850 MB THERMAL GRADIENT NORTH OF THE FRONT.  FIGURING IT WILL MOVE
EAST INTO CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA THIS MORNING.  ALSO FIGURING WITH
PW(S) LOWERING...THAT RAIN RATES WILL DECREASE THIS MORNING.  IF
NOT...FLASH FLOOD WATCHES OR WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

WITH 925 MB FLOW TURNING NE...STILL HAVE THE DRIER AIR HAVING A
TOUGH TIME PENETRATING INTO THE HEART OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA...BUT SHOULD ARRIVE LATE TODAY.  I CAN PICTURE THE SOUTHERN
PLATEAU OF SOUTHERN WV GETTING INTO LOW CLOUDS WITH A DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE SPREAD OF 5 DEGREES.  SO NOT YOUR "CHAMBER OF COMMERCE
DAY" PICTURED FOR PLACES LIKE BECKLEY.

WENT WITH SOME FOG OR LOW STRATUS 06Z TO 12Z FRIDAY IN THE WEST
VIRGINIA VALLEYS.  DID NOT GO QUITE AS CHILLY FROM THE ELK RIVER
VALLEY ON SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...THIS INCLUDES KANAWHA VALLEY AROUND CRW.
FIGURING ON THAT FOG AND WET TERRAIN HOLDING READINGS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER TO END THE WORK
WEEK. SEVERAL 500MB RIPPLES ARE PROGGED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. IT MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR THE ATMOSPHERE
TO MOISTEN BACK UP AS THE HIGH DEPARTS...BUT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES DO HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO HIGHS
AND LOWS BY BLENDING IN CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TWO DISTINCTIVE SHORT WAVE EVIDENT IN H5 CHARTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...KEEPING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AT
LEAST PARTS OF UP COMING WEEKEND. THE FIRST COMES ALONG THE BACK
SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND THE SECOND ONE IN A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

MODELS QPF FIELDS KEEP SATURDAY RELATIVELY DRY...AND TARGET MORE THE
SYSTEM ON SUNDAY WITH A VORTICITY MAX IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PASSING
OVER AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER OUR CWA. THE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE PCPN.
THEREFORE...INCREASED CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO LIKELIES FOR
SUNDAY...AS EXPECTED CONVECTION MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED A BLEND OF DIFFERENT GUIDANCE...WARMER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY PER DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION...WITH
A COOLER TREND AFTER THE WEEKENDS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR 10Z...FRONT SOUTH OF CRW AND WAS APPROACHING BKW. LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNING NNE BEHIND FRONT...SO DRIER AIR NOW MOVING SSWW INTO
SOUTHERN OHIO...BEHIND MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WITH CEILINGS
LIFTING.

500 MB DISTURBANCE ALOFT PASSES DURING THE LATE MORNING.  THIS KEEPS
THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER WEST VIRGINIA...NORTH OF THE SURFACE
FRONT...THROUGH 15Z. HAVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED LOW
CEILINGS FIGURED TO LINGER MOST OF THE DAY TODAY OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS INCLUDING BKW.  THE NORTH WIND THAT DEVELOPS MAY
ALSO KEEP VSBY DOWN OVER THE HIGH GROUND INCLUDING BKW WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON.  LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRYING TO FIGURE THE DOMINATE VSBY AND
CEILING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS.

ALL IN ALL...WHILE CONDITIONS IMPROVE OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO...HAVE
WIDESPREAD IFR IN THE LINGERING LIGHTER SHOWERS THROUGH THE
MORNING.  OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS...WIDESPREAD CEILINGS 1 TO 2 THSD FT
EXCEPT AOB 1 THSD FT OVER MOUNTAINS.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM STILL
POSSIBLE VOER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...UNTIL 500 MB WAVE
PASSES DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO MIDDAY.

CEILINGS LIFTING INTO THE 3 TO 5 THSD FT BROKEN RANGE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OHIO BEFORE 12Z...THEN CREEPING INTO WEST VIRGINIA DURING
THE DAY...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING IN THE CKB TO PKB TO HTS
CORRIDOR FIRST.

WITH CLEARING REACHING FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN WEST VIRGINIA
21Z TO 06Z...SURFACE BASED FOG OR LOW STRATUS AOB 1 THSD MAY BEGIN
TO FORM OVER WEST VIRGINIA...IN THE COOLER AIR BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z
ON FRIDAY.
HAVE FOG ALONG THE OHIO RIVER FORMING LATER IN THE PREDAWN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY MAY STAY LOWER...OR OSCILLATE...
IN LOW CLOUDS AND A NORTH WIND AT BKW DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
THURSDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/50
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...KTB








000
FXUS61 KRLX 241044
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
634 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT SINKING SLOWLY SOUTH AS MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THIS
MORNING. DRIER AIR REACHES INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO FIRST...THEN CREEPS
FURTHER EAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CERTAINLY AN UNUSUAL PATTERN FOR LATE JULY.  HAVE SURFACE FRONT
ABOUT ON TIME WITH OUR THINKING 24 HOURS AGO.  AROUND
08Z...ANALYZING THE FRONT SOUTH OF EKN TO JUST S OF CRW TO NEAR JKL
AT 08Z.  YET...EVEN SOUTH OF THE FRONT...KFCX RADAR HAS A NORTHWEST
FLOW AT 925 MB.

LOCAL DOWNPOURS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVERNIGHT.  RAIN RATES
OF .75 IN 15 MINUTES HAVE BEEN MEASURED.  THE HIGHEST 3 HOUR TOTAL
OVERNIGHT...THRU 08Z WAS LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING WAS AN ESTIMATED 3
INCHES ALONG THE BOONE/RALEIGH COUNTY LINE.  SO FAR...NO SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED.  ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT THE
REPETITIVE CELLS THIS PREDAWN THURSDAY IN CLAY COUNTY.

THE SECONDARY RAIN AREA BETWEEN HTS AND CVG SEEMS TO BE IN THE
850 MB THERMAL GRADIENT NORTH OF THE FRONT.  FIGURING IT WILL MOVE
EAST INTO CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA THIS MORNING.  ALSO FIGURING WITH
PW(S) LOWERING...THAT RAIN RATES WILL DECREASE THIS MORNING.  IF
NOT...FLASH FLOOD WATCHES OR WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

WITH 925 MB FLOW TURNING NE...STILL HAVE THE DRIER AIR HAVING A
TOUGH TIME PENETRATING INTO THE HEART OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA...BUT SHOULD ARRIVE LATE TODAY.  I CAN PICTURE THE SOUTHERN
PLATEAU OF SOUTHERN WV GETTING INTO LOW CLOUDS WITH A DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE SPREAD OF 5 DEGREES.  SO NOT YOUR "CHAMBER OF COMMERCE
DAY" PICTURED FOR PLACES LIKE BECKLEY.

WENT WITH SOME FOG OR LOW STRATUS 06Z TO 12Z FRIDAY IN THE WEST
VIRGINIA VALLEYS.  DID NOT GO QUITE AS CHILLY FROM THE ELK RIVER
VALLEY ON SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...THIS INCLUDES KANAWHA VALLEY AROUND CRW.
FIGURING ON THAT FOG AND WET TERRAIN HOLDING READINGS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER TO END THE WORK
WEEK. SEVERAL 500MB RIPPLES ARE PROGGED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. IT MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR THE ATMOSPHERE
TO MOISTEN BACK UP AS THE HIGH DEPARTS...BUT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES DO HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO HIGHS
AND LOWS BY BLENDING IN CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TWO DISTINCTIVE SHORT WAVE EVIDENT IN H5 CHARTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...KEEPING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AT
LEAST PARTS OF UP COMING WEEKEND. THE FIRST COMES ALONG THE BACK
SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND THE SECOND ONE IN A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

MODELS QPF FIELDS KEEP SATURDAY RELATIVELY DRY...AND TARGET MORE THE
SYSTEM ON SUNDAY WITH A VORTICITY MAX IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PASSING
OVER AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER OUR CWA. THE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE PCPN.
THEREFORE...INCREASED CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO LIKELIES FOR
SUNDAY...AS EXPECTED CONVECTION MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED A BLEND OF DIFFERENT GUIDANCE...WARMER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY PER DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION...WITH
A COOLER TREND AFTER THE WEEKENDS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR 10Z...FRONT SOUTH OF CRW AND WAS APPROACHING BKW. LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNING NNE BEHIND FRONT...SO DRIER AIR NOW MOVING SSWW INTO
SOUTHERN OHIO...BEHIND MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WITH CEILINGS
LIFTING.

500 MB DISTURBANCE ALOFT PASSES DURING THE LATE MORNING.  THIS KEEPS
THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER WEST VIRGINIA...NORTH OF THE SURFACE
FRONT...THROUGH 15Z. HAVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED LOW
CEILINGS FIGURED TO LINGER MOST OF THE DAY TODAY OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS INCLUDING BKW.  THE NORTH WIND THAT DEVELOPS MAY
ALSO KEEP VSBY DOWN OVER THE HIGH GROUND INCLUDING BKW WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON.  LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRYING TO FIGURE THE DOMINATE VSBY AND
CEILING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS.

ALL IN ALL...WHILE CONDITIONS IMPROVE OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO...HAVE
WIDESPREAD IFR IN THE LINGERING LIGHTER SHOWERS THROUGH THE
MORNING.  OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS...WIDESPREAD CEILINGS 1 TO 2 THSD FT
EXCEPT AOB 1 THSD FT OVER MOUNTAINS.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM STILL
POSSIBLE VOER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...UNTIL 500 MB WAVE
PASSES DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO MIDDAY.

CEILINGS LIFTING INTO THE 3 TO 5 THSD FT BROKEN RANGE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OHIO BEFORE 12Z...THEN CREEPING INTO WEST VIRGINIA DURING
THE DAY...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING IN THE CKB TO PKB TO HTS
CORRIDOR FIRST.

WITH CLEARING REACHING FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN WEST VIRGINIA
21Z TO 06Z...SURFACE BASED FOG OR LOW STRATUS AOB 1 THSD MAY BEGIN
TO FORM OVER WEST VIRGINIA...IN THE COOLER AIR BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z
ON FRIDAY.
HAVE FOG ALONG THE OHIO RIVER FORMING LATER IN THE PREDAWN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY MAY STAY LOWER...OR OSCILLATE...
IN LOW CLOUDS AND A NORTH WIND AT BKW DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
THURSDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    M    H    H    M    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    L    M    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...KTB










000
FXUS61 KRLX 241044
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
634 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT SINKING SLOWLY SOUTH AS MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THIS
MORNING. DRIER AIR REACHES INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO FIRST...THEN CREEPS
FURTHER EAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CERTAINLY AN UNUSUAL PATTERN FOR LATE JULY.  HAVE SURFACE FRONT
ABOUT ON TIME WITH OUR THINKING 24 HOURS AGO.  AROUND
08Z...ANALYZING THE FRONT SOUTH OF EKN TO JUST S OF CRW TO NEAR JKL
AT 08Z.  YET...EVEN SOUTH OF THE FRONT...KFCX RADAR HAS A NORTHWEST
FLOW AT 925 MB.

LOCAL DOWNPOURS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVERNIGHT.  RAIN RATES
OF .75 IN 15 MINUTES HAVE BEEN MEASURED.  THE HIGHEST 3 HOUR TOTAL
OVERNIGHT...THRU 08Z WAS LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING WAS AN ESTIMATED 3
INCHES ALONG THE BOONE/RALEIGH COUNTY LINE.  SO FAR...NO SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED.  ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT THE
REPETITIVE CELLS THIS PREDAWN THURSDAY IN CLAY COUNTY.

THE SECONDARY RAIN AREA BETWEEN HTS AND CVG SEEMS TO BE IN THE
850 MB THERMAL GRADIENT NORTH OF THE FRONT.  FIGURING IT WILL MOVE
EAST INTO CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA THIS MORNING.  ALSO FIGURING WITH
PW(S) LOWERING...THAT RAIN RATES WILL DECREASE THIS MORNING.  IF
NOT...FLASH FLOOD WATCHES OR WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

WITH 925 MB FLOW TURNING NE...STILL HAVE THE DRIER AIR HAVING A
TOUGH TIME PENETRATING INTO THE HEART OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA...BUT SHOULD ARRIVE LATE TODAY.  I CAN PICTURE THE SOUTHERN
PLATEAU OF SOUTHERN WV GETTING INTO LOW CLOUDS WITH A DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE SPREAD OF 5 DEGREES.  SO NOT YOUR "CHAMBER OF COMMERCE
DAY" PICTURED FOR PLACES LIKE BECKLEY.

WENT WITH SOME FOG OR LOW STRATUS 06Z TO 12Z FRIDAY IN THE WEST
VIRGINIA VALLEYS.  DID NOT GO QUITE AS CHILLY FROM THE ELK RIVER
VALLEY ON SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...THIS INCLUDES KANAWHA VALLEY AROUND CRW.
FIGURING ON THAT FOG AND WET TERRAIN HOLDING READINGS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER TO END THE WORK
WEEK. SEVERAL 500MB RIPPLES ARE PROGGED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. IT MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR THE ATMOSPHERE
TO MOISTEN BACK UP AS THE HIGH DEPARTS...BUT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES DO HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO HIGHS
AND LOWS BY BLENDING IN CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TWO DISTINCTIVE SHORT WAVE EVIDENT IN H5 CHARTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...KEEPING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AT
LEAST PARTS OF UP COMING WEEKEND. THE FIRST COMES ALONG THE BACK
SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND THE SECOND ONE IN A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

MODELS QPF FIELDS KEEP SATURDAY RELATIVELY DRY...AND TARGET MORE THE
SYSTEM ON SUNDAY WITH A VORTICITY MAX IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PASSING
OVER AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER OUR CWA. THE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE PCPN.
THEREFORE...INCREASED CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO LIKELIES FOR
SUNDAY...AS EXPECTED CONVECTION MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED A BLEND OF DIFFERENT GUIDANCE...WARMER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY PER DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION...WITH
A COOLER TREND AFTER THE WEEKENDS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR 10Z...FRONT SOUTH OF CRW AND WAS APPROACHING BKW. LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNING NNE BEHIND FRONT...SO DRIER AIR NOW MOVING SSWW INTO
SOUTHERN OHIO...BEHIND MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WITH CEILINGS
LIFTING.

500 MB DISTURBANCE ALOFT PASSES DURING THE LATE MORNING.  THIS KEEPS
THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER WEST VIRGINIA...NORTH OF THE SURFACE
FRONT...THROUGH 15Z. HAVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED LOW
CEILINGS FIGURED TO LINGER MOST OF THE DAY TODAY OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS INCLUDING BKW.  THE NORTH WIND THAT DEVELOPS MAY
ALSO KEEP VSBY DOWN OVER THE HIGH GROUND INCLUDING BKW WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON.  LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRYING TO FIGURE THE DOMINATE VSBY AND
CEILING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS.

ALL IN ALL...WHILE CONDITIONS IMPROVE OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO...HAVE
WIDESPREAD IFR IN THE LINGERING LIGHTER SHOWERS THROUGH THE
MORNING.  OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS...WIDESPREAD CEILINGS 1 TO 2 THSD FT
EXCEPT AOB 1 THSD FT OVER MOUNTAINS.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM STILL
POSSIBLE VOER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...UNTIL 500 MB WAVE
PASSES DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO MIDDAY.

CEILINGS LIFTING INTO THE 3 TO 5 THSD FT BROKEN RANGE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OHIO BEFORE 12Z...THEN CREEPING INTO WEST VIRGINIA DURING
THE DAY...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING IN THE CKB TO PKB TO HTS
CORRIDOR FIRST.

WITH CLEARING REACHING FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN WEST VIRGINIA
21Z TO 06Z...SURFACE BASED FOG OR LOW STRATUS AOB 1 THSD MAY BEGIN
TO FORM OVER WEST VIRGINIA...IN THE COOLER AIR BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z
ON FRIDAY.
HAVE FOG ALONG THE OHIO RIVER FORMING LATER IN THE PREDAWN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY MAY STAY LOWER...OR OSCILLATE...
IN LOW CLOUDS AND A NORTH WIND AT BKW DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
THURSDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    M    H    H    M    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    L    M    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...KTB










000
FXUS61 KRLX 241044
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
634 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT SINKING SLOWLY SOUTH AS MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THIS
MORNING. DRIER AIR REACHES INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO FIRST...THEN CREEPS
FURTHER EAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CERTAINLY AN UNUSUAL PATTERN FOR LATE JULY.  HAVE SURFACE FRONT
ABOUT ON TIME WITH OUR THINKING 24 HOURS AGO.  AROUND
08Z...ANALYZING THE FRONT SOUTH OF EKN TO JUST S OF CRW TO NEAR JKL
AT 08Z.  YET...EVEN SOUTH OF THE FRONT...KFCX RADAR HAS A NORTHWEST
FLOW AT 925 MB.

LOCAL DOWNPOURS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVERNIGHT.  RAIN RATES
OF .75 IN 15 MINUTES HAVE BEEN MEASURED.  THE HIGHEST 3 HOUR TOTAL
OVERNIGHT...THRU 08Z WAS LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING WAS AN ESTIMATED 3
INCHES ALONG THE BOONE/RALEIGH COUNTY LINE.  SO FAR...NO SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED.  ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT THE
REPETITIVE CELLS THIS PREDAWN THURSDAY IN CLAY COUNTY.

THE SECONDARY RAIN AREA BETWEEN HTS AND CVG SEEMS TO BE IN THE
850 MB THERMAL GRADIENT NORTH OF THE FRONT.  FIGURING IT WILL MOVE
EAST INTO CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA THIS MORNING.  ALSO FIGURING WITH
PW(S) LOWERING...THAT RAIN RATES WILL DECREASE THIS MORNING.  IF
NOT...FLASH FLOOD WATCHES OR WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

WITH 925 MB FLOW TURNING NE...STILL HAVE THE DRIER AIR HAVING A
TOUGH TIME PENETRATING INTO THE HEART OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA...BUT SHOULD ARRIVE LATE TODAY.  I CAN PICTURE THE SOUTHERN
PLATEAU OF SOUTHERN WV GETTING INTO LOW CLOUDS WITH A DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE SPREAD OF 5 DEGREES.  SO NOT YOUR "CHAMBER OF COMMERCE
DAY" PICTURED FOR PLACES LIKE BECKLEY.

WENT WITH SOME FOG OR LOW STRATUS 06Z TO 12Z FRIDAY IN THE WEST
VIRGINIA VALLEYS.  DID NOT GO QUITE AS CHILLY FROM THE ELK RIVER
VALLEY ON SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...THIS INCLUDES KANAWHA VALLEY AROUND CRW.
FIGURING ON THAT FOG AND WET TERRAIN HOLDING READINGS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER TO END THE WORK
WEEK. SEVERAL 500MB RIPPLES ARE PROGGED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. IT MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR THE ATMOSPHERE
TO MOISTEN BACK UP AS THE HIGH DEPARTS...BUT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES DO HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO HIGHS
AND LOWS BY BLENDING IN CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TWO DISTINCTIVE SHORT WAVE EVIDENT IN H5 CHARTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...KEEPING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AT
LEAST PARTS OF UP COMING WEEKEND. THE FIRST COMES ALONG THE BACK
SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND THE SECOND ONE IN A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

MODELS QPF FIELDS KEEP SATURDAY RELATIVELY DRY...AND TARGET MORE THE
SYSTEM ON SUNDAY WITH A VORTICITY MAX IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PASSING
OVER AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER OUR CWA. THE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE PCPN.
THEREFORE...INCREASED CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO LIKELIES FOR
SUNDAY...AS EXPECTED CONVECTION MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED A BLEND OF DIFFERENT GUIDANCE...WARMER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY PER DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION...WITH
A COOLER TREND AFTER THE WEEKENDS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR 10Z...FRONT SOUTH OF CRW AND WAS APPROACHING BKW. LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNING NNE BEHIND FRONT...SO DRIER AIR NOW MOVING SSWW INTO
SOUTHERN OHIO...BEHIND MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WITH CEILINGS
LIFTING.

500 MB DISTURBANCE ALOFT PASSES DURING THE LATE MORNING.  THIS KEEPS
THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER WEST VIRGINIA...NORTH OF THE SURFACE
FRONT...THROUGH 15Z. HAVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED LOW
CEILINGS FIGURED TO LINGER MOST OF THE DAY TODAY OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS INCLUDING BKW.  THE NORTH WIND THAT DEVELOPS MAY
ALSO KEEP VSBY DOWN OVER THE HIGH GROUND INCLUDING BKW WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON.  LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRYING TO FIGURE THE DOMINATE VSBY AND
CEILING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS.

ALL IN ALL...WHILE CONDITIONS IMPROVE OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO...HAVE
WIDESPREAD IFR IN THE LINGERING LIGHTER SHOWERS THROUGH THE
MORNING.  OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS...WIDESPREAD CEILINGS 1 TO 2 THSD FT
EXCEPT AOB 1 THSD FT OVER MOUNTAINS.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM STILL
POSSIBLE VOER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...UNTIL 500 MB WAVE
PASSES DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO MIDDAY.

CEILINGS LIFTING INTO THE 3 TO 5 THSD FT BROKEN RANGE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OHIO BEFORE 12Z...THEN CREEPING INTO WEST VIRGINIA DURING
THE DAY...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING IN THE CKB TO PKB TO HTS
CORRIDOR FIRST.

WITH CLEARING REACHING FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN WEST VIRGINIA
21Z TO 06Z...SURFACE BASED FOG OR LOW STRATUS AOB 1 THSD MAY BEGIN
TO FORM OVER WEST VIRGINIA...IN THE COOLER AIR BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z
ON FRIDAY.
HAVE FOG ALONG THE OHIO RIVER FORMING LATER IN THE PREDAWN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY MAY STAY LOWER...OR OSCILLATE...
IN LOW CLOUDS AND A NORTH WIND AT BKW DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
THURSDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    M    H    H    M    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    L    M    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...KTB










000
FXUS61 KRLX 241044
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
634 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT SINKING SLOWLY SOUTH AS MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THIS
MORNING. DRIER AIR REACHES INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO FIRST...THEN CREEPS
FURTHER EAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CERTAINLY AN UNUSUAL PATTERN FOR LATE JULY.  HAVE SURFACE FRONT
ABOUT ON TIME WITH OUR THINKING 24 HOURS AGO.  AROUND
08Z...ANALYZING THE FRONT SOUTH OF EKN TO JUST S OF CRW TO NEAR JKL
AT 08Z.  YET...EVEN SOUTH OF THE FRONT...KFCX RADAR HAS A NORTHWEST
FLOW AT 925 MB.

LOCAL DOWNPOURS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVERNIGHT.  RAIN RATES
OF .75 IN 15 MINUTES HAVE BEEN MEASURED.  THE HIGHEST 3 HOUR TOTAL
OVERNIGHT...THRU 08Z WAS LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING WAS AN ESTIMATED 3
INCHES ALONG THE BOONE/RALEIGH COUNTY LINE.  SO FAR...NO SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED.  ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT THE
REPETITIVE CELLS THIS PREDAWN THURSDAY IN CLAY COUNTY.

THE SECONDARY RAIN AREA BETWEEN HTS AND CVG SEEMS TO BE IN THE
850 MB THERMAL GRADIENT NORTH OF THE FRONT.  FIGURING IT WILL MOVE
EAST INTO CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA THIS MORNING.  ALSO FIGURING WITH
PW(S) LOWERING...THAT RAIN RATES WILL DECREASE THIS MORNING.  IF
NOT...FLASH FLOOD WATCHES OR WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

WITH 925 MB FLOW TURNING NE...STILL HAVE THE DRIER AIR HAVING A
TOUGH TIME PENETRATING INTO THE HEART OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA...BUT SHOULD ARRIVE LATE TODAY.  I CAN PICTURE THE SOUTHERN
PLATEAU OF SOUTHERN WV GETTING INTO LOW CLOUDS WITH A DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE SPREAD OF 5 DEGREES.  SO NOT YOUR "CHAMBER OF COMMERCE
DAY" PICTURED FOR PLACES LIKE BECKLEY.

WENT WITH SOME FOG OR LOW STRATUS 06Z TO 12Z FRIDAY IN THE WEST
VIRGINIA VALLEYS.  DID NOT GO QUITE AS CHILLY FROM THE ELK RIVER
VALLEY ON SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...THIS INCLUDES KANAWHA VALLEY AROUND CRW.
FIGURING ON THAT FOG AND WET TERRAIN HOLDING READINGS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER TO END THE WORK
WEEK. SEVERAL 500MB RIPPLES ARE PROGGED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. IT MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR THE ATMOSPHERE
TO MOISTEN BACK UP AS THE HIGH DEPARTS...BUT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES DO HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO HIGHS
AND LOWS BY BLENDING IN CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TWO DISTINCTIVE SHORT WAVE EVIDENT IN H5 CHARTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...KEEPING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AT
LEAST PARTS OF UP COMING WEEKEND. THE FIRST COMES ALONG THE BACK
SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND THE SECOND ONE IN A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

MODELS QPF FIELDS KEEP SATURDAY RELATIVELY DRY...AND TARGET MORE THE
SYSTEM ON SUNDAY WITH A VORTICITY MAX IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PASSING
OVER AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER OUR CWA. THE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE PCPN.
THEREFORE...INCREASED CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO LIKELIES FOR
SUNDAY...AS EXPECTED CONVECTION MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED A BLEND OF DIFFERENT GUIDANCE...WARMER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY PER DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION...WITH
A COOLER TREND AFTER THE WEEKENDS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR 10Z...FRONT SOUTH OF CRW AND WAS APPROACHING BKW. LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNING NNE BEHIND FRONT...SO DRIER AIR NOW MOVING SSWW INTO
SOUTHERN OHIO...BEHIND MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WITH CEILINGS
LIFTING.

500 MB DISTURBANCE ALOFT PASSES DURING THE LATE MORNING.  THIS KEEPS
THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER WEST VIRGINIA...NORTH OF THE SURFACE
FRONT...THROUGH 15Z. HAVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED LOW
CEILINGS FIGURED TO LINGER MOST OF THE DAY TODAY OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS INCLUDING BKW.  THE NORTH WIND THAT DEVELOPS MAY
ALSO KEEP VSBY DOWN OVER THE HIGH GROUND INCLUDING BKW WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON.  LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRYING TO FIGURE THE DOMINATE VSBY AND
CEILING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS.

ALL IN ALL...WHILE CONDITIONS IMPROVE OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO...HAVE
WIDESPREAD IFR IN THE LINGERING LIGHTER SHOWERS THROUGH THE
MORNING.  OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS...WIDESPREAD CEILINGS 1 TO 2 THSD FT
EXCEPT AOB 1 THSD FT OVER MOUNTAINS.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM STILL
POSSIBLE VOER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...UNTIL 500 MB WAVE
PASSES DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO MIDDAY.

CEILINGS LIFTING INTO THE 3 TO 5 THSD FT BROKEN RANGE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OHIO BEFORE 12Z...THEN CREEPING INTO WEST VIRGINIA DURING
THE DAY...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING IN THE CKB TO PKB TO HTS
CORRIDOR FIRST.

WITH CLEARING REACHING FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN WEST VIRGINIA
21Z TO 06Z...SURFACE BASED FOG OR LOW STRATUS AOB 1 THSD MAY BEGIN
TO FORM OVER WEST VIRGINIA...IN THE COOLER AIR BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z
ON FRIDAY.
HAVE FOG ALONG THE OHIO RIVER FORMING LATER IN THE PREDAWN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY MAY STAY LOWER...OR OSCILLATE...
IN LOW CLOUDS AND A NORTH WIND AT BKW DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
THURSDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    M    H    H    M    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    L    M    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...KTB










000
FXUS61 KRLX 240848
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
414 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT SINKING SLOWLY SOUTH AS MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THIS
MORNING. DRIER AIR REACHES INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO FIRST...THEN CREEPS
FURTHER EAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CERTAINLY AN UNUSUAL PATTERN FOR LATE JULY.  HAVE SURFACE FRONT
ABOUT ON TIME WITH OUR THINKING 24 HOURS AGO.  AROUND
08Z...ANALYZING THE FRONT SOUTH OF EKN TO JUST S OF CRW TO NEAR JKL
AT 08Z.  YET...EVEN SOUTH OF THE FRONT...FCS RADAR HAS A NORTHWEST
FLOW AT 925 MB.

LOCAL DOWNPOURS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVERNIGHT.  RAIN RATES
OF .75 IN 15 MINUTES HAVE BEEN MEASURED.  THE HIGHEST 3 HOUR TOTAL
OVERNIGHT...THRU 08Z WAS LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING WAS AN ESTIMATED 3
INCHES ALONG THE BOONE/RALEIGH COUNTY LINE.  SO FAR...NO SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED.  ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT THE
REPETITIVE CELLS THIS PREDAWN THURSDAY IN CLAY COUNTY.

THE SECONDARY RAIN AREA BETWEEN HTS AND CVG SEEMS TO BE IN THE 805
THERMAL GRADIENT NORTH OF THE FRONT.  FIGURING IT WILL MOVE EAST
INTO CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA THIS MORNING.  ALSO FIGURING WITH PW(S)
LOWERING...THAT RAIN RATES WILL DECREASE THIS MORNING.  IF NOT...
FLASH FLOOD WATCHES OR WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

WITH 925 MB FLOW TURNING NE...STILL HAVE THE DRIER AIR HAVING A
TOUGH TIME PENETRATING INTO THE HEART OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA BUT LATE TODAY.  I CAN PICTURE THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
GETTING INTO LOW CLOUDS WITH A DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SPREAD OF 5
DEGREES.

WENT WITH SOME FOG OR LOW STRATUS 06Z TO 12Z FRIDAY IN THE WEST
VIRGINIA VALLEYS.  DID NOT GO QUITE AS CHILLY FROM THE ELK RIVER
VALLEY ON SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.  FIGURING ON THAT FOG AND WET TERRAIN HOLDER
READINGS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER TO END THE WORK
WEEK. SEVERAL 500MB RIPPLES ARE PROGGED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. IT MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR THE ATMOSPHERE
TO MOISTEN BACK UP AS THE HIGH DEPARTS...BUT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES DO HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO HIGHS
AND LOWS BY BLENDING IN CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TWO DISTINCTIVE SHORT WAVE EVIDENT IN H5 CHARTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...KEEPING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AT
LEAST PARTS OF UP COMING WEEKEND. THE FIRST COMES ALONG THE BACK
SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND THE SECOND ONE IN A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

MODELS QPF FIELDS KEEP SATURDAY RELATIVELY DRY...AND TARGET MORE THE
SYSTEM ON SUNDAY WITH A VORTICITY MAX IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PASSING
OVER AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER OUR CWA. THE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE PCPN.
THEREFORE...INCREASED CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO LIKELIES FOR
SUNDAY...AS EXPECTED CONVECTION MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED A BLEND OF DIFFERENT GUIDANCE...WARMER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY PER DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION...WITH
A COOLER TREND AFTER THE WEEKENDS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR 06Z...FRONT NEAR EKN TO CRW TO S OF HTS.  LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING
NNE BEHIND FRONT...SO DRIER PUSH MOVING INTO SOUTHERN OHIO FIRST.

500 MB DISTURBANCE ALOFT PASSES DURING THE LATE MORNING.  THIS KEEPS
THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER WEST VIRGINIA...NORTH OF THE SURFACE
FRONT...THROUGH 15Z. HAVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED LOW
CEILINGS FIGURED TO LINGER MOST OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS INCLUDING BKW.  THE NORTH WIND THAT DEVELOPS MAY
ALSO KEEP VSBY DOWN OVER THE HIGH GROUND INCLUDING BKW WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON.  LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRYING TO FIGURE THE DOMINATE VSBY AND
CEILING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS.

ALL IN ALL...WHILE CONDITIONS IMPROVE OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO...HAVE
WIDESPREAD IFR IN SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING.  OUTSIDE OF
SHOWERS...WIDESPREAD CEILINGS 1 TO 2 THSD FT EXCEPT AOB 1 THSD FT
OVER MOUNTAINS.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM STILL POSSIBLE UNTIL 500 MB
WAVE PASSES DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO MIDDAY.

CEILINGS LIFTING INTO THE 3 TO 5 THSD FT BROKEN RANGE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OHIO BEFORE 12Z...THEN ONLY SLOWLY CREEPING INTO WEST
VIRGINIA DURING THE DAY...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING IN THE CKB TO
PKB TO HTS CORRIDOR FIRST.

WITH CLEARING REACHING FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN WEST VIRGINIA 21Z TO
06Z...SURFACE BASED FOG OR LOW STRATUS AOB 1 THSD MAY BEGIN TO FORM
OVER WEST VIRGINIA...IN THE COOLER AIR BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z ON FRIDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY MAY STAY LOWER IN LOW CLOUDS AND A NORTH
WIND AT BKW DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON THURSDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    THU 07/24/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    L    H    H    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    M    H    H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...RPY












000
FXUS61 KRLX 240848
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
414 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT SINKING SLOWLY SOUTH AS MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THIS
MORNING. DRIER AIR REACHES INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO FIRST...THEN CREEPS
FURTHER EAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CERTAINLY AN UNUSUAL PATTERN FOR LATE JULY.  HAVE SURFACE FRONT
ABOUT ON TIME WITH OUR THINKING 24 HOURS AGO.  AROUND
08Z...ANALYZING THE FRONT SOUTH OF EKN TO JUST S OF CRW TO NEAR JKL
AT 08Z.  YET...EVEN SOUTH OF THE FRONT...FCS RADAR HAS A NORTHWEST
FLOW AT 925 MB.

LOCAL DOWNPOURS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVERNIGHT.  RAIN RATES
OF .75 IN 15 MINUTES HAVE BEEN MEASURED.  THE HIGHEST 3 HOUR TOTAL
OVERNIGHT...THRU 08Z WAS LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING WAS AN ESTIMATED 3
INCHES ALONG THE BOONE/RALEIGH COUNTY LINE.  SO FAR...NO SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED.  ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT THE
REPETITIVE CELLS THIS PREDAWN THURSDAY IN CLAY COUNTY.

THE SECONDARY RAIN AREA BETWEEN HTS AND CVG SEEMS TO BE IN THE 805
THERMAL GRADIENT NORTH OF THE FRONT.  FIGURING IT WILL MOVE EAST
INTO CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA THIS MORNING.  ALSO FIGURING WITH PW(S)
LOWERING...THAT RAIN RATES WILL DECREASE THIS MORNING.  IF NOT...
FLASH FLOOD WATCHES OR WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

WITH 925 MB FLOW TURNING NE...STILL HAVE THE DRIER AIR HAVING A
TOUGH TIME PENETRATING INTO THE HEART OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA BUT LATE TODAY.  I CAN PICTURE THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
GETTING INTO LOW CLOUDS WITH A DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SPREAD OF 5
DEGREES.

WENT WITH SOME FOG OR LOW STRATUS 06Z TO 12Z FRIDAY IN THE WEST
VIRGINIA VALLEYS.  DID NOT GO QUITE AS CHILLY FROM THE ELK RIVER
VALLEY ON SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.  FIGURING ON THAT FOG AND WET TERRAIN HOLDER
READINGS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER TO END THE WORK
WEEK. SEVERAL 500MB RIPPLES ARE PROGGED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. IT MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR THE ATMOSPHERE
TO MOISTEN BACK UP AS THE HIGH DEPARTS...BUT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES DO HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO HIGHS
AND LOWS BY BLENDING IN CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TWO DISTINCTIVE SHORT WAVE EVIDENT IN H5 CHARTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...KEEPING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AT
LEAST PARTS OF UP COMING WEEKEND. THE FIRST COMES ALONG THE BACK
SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND THE SECOND ONE IN A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

MODELS QPF FIELDS KEEP SATURDAY RELATIVELY DRY...AND TARGET MORE THE
SYSTEM ON SUNDAY WITH A VORTICITY MAX IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PASSING
OVER AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER OUR CWA. THE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE PCPN.
THEREFORE...INCREASED CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO LIKELIES FOR
SUNDAY...AS EXPECTED CONVECTION MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED A BLEND OF DIFFERENT GUIDANCE...WARMER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY PER DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION...WITH
A COOLER TREND AFTER THE WEEKENDS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR 06Z...FRONT NEAR EKN TO CRW TO S OF HTS.  LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING
NNE BEHIND FRONT...SO DRIER PUSH MOVING INTO SOUTHERN OHIO FIRST.

500 MB DISTURBANCE ALOFT PASSES DURING THE LATE MORNING.  THIS KEEPS
THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER WEST VIRGINIA...NORTH OF THE SURFACE
FRONT...THROUGH 15Z. HAVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED LOW
CEILINGS FIGURED TO LINGER MOST OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS INCLUDING BKW.  THE NORTH WIND THAT DEVELOPS MAY
ALSO KEEP VSBY DOWN OVER THE HIGH GROUND INCLUDING BKW WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON.  LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRYING TO FIGURE THE DOMINATE VSBY AND
CEILING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS.

ALL IN ALL...WHILE CONDITIONS IMPROVE OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO...HAVE
WIDESPREAD IFR IN SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING.  OUTSIDE OF
SHOWERS...WIDESPREAD CEILINGS 1 TO 2 THSD FT EXCEPT AOB 1 THSD FT
OVER MOUNTAINS.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM STILL POSSIBLE UNTIL 500 MB
WAVE PASSES DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO MIDDAY.

CEILINGS LIFTING INTO THE 3 TO 5 THSD FT BROKEN RANGE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OHIO BEFORE 12Z...THEN ONLY SLOWLY CREEPING INTO WEST
VIRGINIA DURING THE DAY...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING IN THE CKB TO
PKB TO HTS CORRIDOR FIRST.

WITH CLEARING REACHING FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN WEST VIRGINIA 21Z TO
06Z...SURFACE BASED FOG OR LOW STRATUS AOB 1 THSD MAY BEGIN TO FORM
OVER WEST VIRGINIA...IN THE COOLER AIR BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z ON FRIDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY MAY STAY LOWER IN LOW CLOUDS AND A NORTH
WIND AT BKW DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON THURSDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    THU 07/24/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    L    H    H    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    M    H    H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...RPY













000
FXUS61 KRLX 240622
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
203 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT SINKS SLOWLY SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH STORMS/SHOWERS.
SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER FRONT THURSDAY MORNING. DRIER AIR REACHES INTO
SOUTHEAST OHJIO FIRST...THEN CREEPS EAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REPRESENT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT TO
PROVIDE WEAK NORTHERLY FRESH AIR THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THEREFORE...KEPT DRY WEATHER FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

EXPECTING A COOLER NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF READINGS IN
THE 50S. CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP FRIDAY NIGHT JUST A TOUCH WARMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TWO DISTINCTIVE SHORT WAVE EVIDENT IN H5 CHARTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...KEEPING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AT
LEAST PARTS OF UP COMING WEEKEND. THE FIRST COMES ALONG THE BACK
SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND THE SECOND ONE IN A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

MODELS QPF FIELDS KEEP SATURDAY RELATIVELY DRY...AND TARGET MORE THE
SYSTEM ON SUNDAY WITH A VORTICITY MAX IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PASSING
OVER AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER OUR CWA. THE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE PCPN.
THEREFORE...INCREASED CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO LIKELIES FOR
SUNDAY...AS EXPECTED CONVECTION MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED A BLEND OF DIFFERENT GUIDANCE...WARMER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY PER DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION...WITH
A COOLER TREND AFTER THE WEEKENDS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR 06Z...FRONT NEAR EKN TO CRW TO S OF HTS.  LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING
NNE BEHIND FRONT...SO DRIER PUSH MOVING INTO SOUTHERN OHIO FIRST.

500 MB DISTURBANCE ALOFT PASSES DURING THE LATE MORNING.  THIS KEEPS
THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER WEST VIRGINIA...NORTH OF THE SURFACE
FRONT...THROUGH 15Z. HAVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED LOW
CEILINGS FIGURED TO LINGER MOST OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUTNAINS INCLUDING BKW.  THE NORTH WIND THAT DEVELOPS MAY
ALSO KEEP VSBY DOWN OVER THE HIGH GROUND INCLUDING BKW WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON.  LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRYING TO FIGURE THE DOMINATE VSBY AND
CEILING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN WEST VIRIGNIA MOUNTAINS.

ALL IN ALL...WHILE CONDITIONS IMPROVE OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO...HAVE
WIDESPREAD IFR IN SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING.  OUTSIDE OF
SHOWERS...WIDESPREAD CEILINGS 1 TO 2 THSD FT EXCEPT AOB 1 THSD FT
OVER MOUNTAINS.  ISOLATED THUNDESTORM STILL POSSIBLE UNTIL 500 MB
WAVE PASSES DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO MIDDAY.

CEILINGS LIFTING INTO THE 3 TO 5 THSD FT BROKEN RANGE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OHIO BEFORE 12Z...THEN ONLY SLOWLY CREEPING INTO WEST
VIRGINIA DURING THE DAY...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING IN THE CKB TO
PKB TO HTS CORRIDOR FIRST.

WITH CLEARING RECHING FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN WEST VIRGINIA 21Z TO
06Z...SURFACE BASED FOG OR LOW STRATUS AOB 1 THSD MAY BEGIN TO FORM
OVER WEST VIRGINIA...IN THE COOLER AIR BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z ON FRIDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY MAY STAY LOWER IN LOW CLOUDS AND A NORTH
WIND AT BKW DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON THURSDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              THU 07/24/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    M    H    H    M    H    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...RPY










000
FXUS61 KRLX 240622
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
203 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT SINKS SLOWLY SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH STORMS/SHOWERS.
SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER FRONT THURSDAY MORNING. DRIER AIR REACHES INTO
SOUTHEAST OHJIO FIRST...THEN CREEPS EAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REPRESENT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT TO
PROVIDE WEAK NORTHERLY FRESH AIR THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THEREFORE...KEPT DRY WEATHER FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

EXPECTING A COOLER NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF READINGS IN
THE 50S. CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP FRIDAY NIGHT JUST A TOUCH WARMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TWO DISTINCTIVE SHORT WAVE EVIDENT IN H5 CHARTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...KEEPING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AT
LEAST PARTS OF UP COMING WEEKEND. THE FIRST COMES ALONG THE BACK
SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND THE SECOND ONE IN A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

MODELS QPF FIELDS KEEP SATURDAY RELATIVELY DRY...AND TARGET MORE THE
SYSTEM ON SUNDAY WITH A VORTICITY MAX IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PASSING
OVER AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER OUR CWA. THE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE PCPN.
THEREFORE...INCREASED CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO LIKELIES FOR
SUNDAY...AS EXPECTED CONVECTION MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED A BLEND OF DIFFERENT GUIDANCE...WARMER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY PER DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION...WITH
A COOLER TREND AFTER THE WEEKENDS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR 06Z...FRONT NEAR EKN TO CRW TO S OF HTS.  LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING
NNE BEHIND FRONT...SO DRIER PUSH MOVING INTO SOUTHERN OHIO FIRST.

500 MB DISTURBANCE ALOFT PASSES DURING THE LATE MORNING.  THIS KEEPS
THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER WEST VIRGINIA...NORTH OF THE SURFACE
FRONT...THROUGH 15Z. HAVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED LOW
CEILINGS FIGURED TO LINGER MOST OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUTNAINS INCLUDING BKW.  THE NORTH WIND THAT DEVELOPS MAY
ALSO KEEP VSBY DOWN OVER THE HIGH GROUND INCLUDING BKW WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON.  LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRYING TO FIGURE THE DOMINATE VSBY AND
CEILING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN WEST VIRIGNIA MOUNTAINS.

ALL IN ALL...WHILE CONDITIONS IMPROVE OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO...HAVE
WIDESPREAD IFR IN SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING.  OUTSIDE OF
SHOWERS...WIDESPREAD CEILINGS 1 TO 2 THSD FT EXCEPT AOB 1 THSD FT
OVER MOUNTAINS.  ISOLATED THUNDESTORM STILL POSSIBLE UNTIL 500 MB
WAVE PASSES DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO MIDDAY.

CEILINGS LIFTING INTO THE 3 TO 5 THSD FT BROKEN RANGE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OHIO BEFORE 12Z...THEN ONLY SLOWLY CREEPING INTO WEST
VIRGINIA DURING THE DAY...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING IN THE CKB TO
PKB TO HTS CORRIDOR FIRST.

WITH CLEARING RECHING FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN WEST VIRGINIA 21Z TO
06Z...SURFACE BASED FOG OR LOW STRATUS AOB 1 THSD MAY BEGIN TO FORM
OVER WEST VIRGINIA...IN THE COOLER AIR BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z ON FRIDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY MAY STAY LOWER IN LOW CLOUDS AND A NORTH
WIND AT BKW DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON THURSDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              THU 07/24/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    M    H    H    M    H    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...RPY









000
FXUS61 KRLX 232227
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
616 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER FRONT EARLY THURSDAY.
DRIER AIR BEHIND FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REPRESENT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT TO
PROVIDE WEAK NORTHERLY FRESH AIR THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THEREFORE...KEPT DRY WEATHER FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

EXPECTING A COOLER NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF READINGS IN
THE 50S. CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP FRIDAY NIGHT JUST A TOUCH WARMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TWO DISTINCTIVE SHORT WAVE EVIDENT IN H5 CHARTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...KEEPING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AT
LEAST PARTS OF UP COMING WEEKEND. THE FIRST COMES ALONG THE BACK
SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND THE SECOND ONE IN A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

MODELS QPF FIELDS KEEP SATURDAY RELATIVELY DRY...AND TARGET MORE THE
SYSTEM ON SUNDAY WITH A VORTICITY MAX IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PASSING
OVER AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER OUR CWA. THE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE PCPN.
THEREFORE...INCREASED CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO LIKELIES FOR
SUNDAY...AS EXPECTED CONVECTION MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED A BLEND OF DIFFERENT GUIDANCE...WARMER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY PER DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION...WITH
A COOLER TREND AFTER THE WEEKENDS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY TRICKY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. MODELS SHOWING SOME LOW CLOUDS
MOVING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH
NOT TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...LOW CLOUDS HAVE PERSISTED IN NW
OHIO AND IN...SO THINK THAT MODELS COULD HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON
THIS. WILL ALLOW THE LOW CLOUDS TO SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...LIFTING INTO A CUMULUS DECK ON THURSDAY. WITH THE CLOUDS
AND SOME WIND STIRRING...OPTED NOT TO GO WITH FOG. THIS IS VERY
TRICKY THOUGH...AS SOME LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED RAINFALL.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD VARY.
TIMING/EXISTENCE OF LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT COULD VARY. FOG COULD
DEVELOP IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
PKB ASOS IS NOT SENDING A COMPLETE OBSERVATION. NWS TECHS ARE
WORKING ON THE PROBLEM.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...RPY

EQUIPMENT...KTB











000
FXUS61 KRLX 232227
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
616 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER FRONT EARLY THURSDAY.
DRIER AIR BEHIND FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REPRESENT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT TO
PROVIDE WEAK NORTHERLY FRESH AIR THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THEREFORE...KEPT DRY WEATHER FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

EXPECTING A COOLER NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF READINGS IN
THE 50S. CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP FRIDAY NIGHT JUST A TOUCH WARMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TWO DISTINCTIVE SHORT WAVE EVIDENT IN H5 CHARTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...KEEPING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AT
LEAST PARTS OF UP COMING WEEKEND. THE FIRST COMES ALONG THE BACK
SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND THE SECOND ONE IN A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

MODELS QPF FIELDS KEEP SATURDAY RELATIVELY DRY...AND TARGET MORE THE
SYSTEM ON SUNDAY WITH A VORTICITY MAX IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PASSING
OVER AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER OUR CWA. THE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE PCPN.
THEREFORE...INCREASED CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO LIKELIES FOR
SUNDAY...AS EXPECTED CONVECTION MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED A BLEND OF DIFFERENT GUIDANCE...WARMER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY PER DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION...WITH
A COOLER TREND AFTER THE WEEKENDS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY TRICKY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. MODELS SHOWING SOME LOW CLOUDS
MOVING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH
NOT TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...LOW CLOUDS HAVE PERSISTED IN NW
OHIO AND IN...SO THINK THAT MODELS COULD HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON
THIS. WILL ALLOW THE LOW CLOUDS TO SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...LIFTING INTO A CUMULUS DECK ON THURSDAY. WITH THE CLOUDS
AND SOME WIND STIRRING...OPTED NOT TO GO WITH FOG. THIS IS VERY
TRICKY THOUGH...AS SOME LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED RAINFALL.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD VARY.
TIMING/EXISTENCE OF LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT COULD VARY. FOG COULD
DEVELOP IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
PKB ASOS IS NOT SENDING A COMPLETE OBSERVATION. NWS TECHS ARE
WORKING ON THE PROBLEM.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...RPY

EQUIPMENT...KTB











000
FXUS61 KRLX 232227
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
616 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER FRONT EARLY THURSDAY.
DRIER AIR BEHIND FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REPRESENT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT TO
PROVIDE WEAK NORTHERLY FRESH AIR THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THEREFORE...KEPT DRY WEATHER FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

EXPECTING A COOLER NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF READINGS IN
THE 50S. CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP FRIDAY NIGHT JUST A TOUCH WARMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TWO DISTINCTIVE SHORT WAVE EVIDENT IN H5 CHARTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...KEEPING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AT
LEAST PARTS OF UP COMING WEEKEND. THE FIRST COMES ALONG THE BACK
SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND THE SECOND ONE IN A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

MODELS QPF FIELDS KEEP SATURDAY RELATIVELY DRY...AND TARGET MORE THE
SYSTEM ON SUNDAY WITH A VORTICITY MAX IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PASSING
OVER AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER OUR CWA. THE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE PCPN.
THEREFORE...INCREASED CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO LIKELIES FOR
SUNDAY...AS EXPECTED CONVECTION MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED A BLEND OF DIFFERENT GUIDANCE...WARMER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY PER DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION...WITH
A COOLER TREND AFTER THE WEEKENDS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY TRICKY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. MODELS SHOWING SOME LOW CLOUDS
MOVING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH
NOT TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...LOW CLOUDS HAVE PERSISTED IN NW
OHIO AND IN...SO THINK THAT MODELS COULD HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON
THIS. WILL ALLOW THE LOW CLOUDS TO SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...LIFTING INTO A CUMULUS DECK ON THURSDAY. WITH THE CLOUDS
AND SOME WIND STIRRING...OPTED NOT TO GO WITH FOG. THIS IS VERY
TRICKY THOUGH...AS SOME LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED RAINFALL.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD VARY.
TIMING/EXISTENCE OF LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT COULD VARY. FOG COULD
DEVELOP IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
PKB ASOS IS NOT SENDING A COMPLETE OBSERVATION. NWS TECHS ARE
WORKING ON THE PROBLEM.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...RPY

EQUIPMENT...KTB











000
FXUS61 KRLX 232227
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
616 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER FRONT EARLY THURSDAY.
DRIER AIR BEHIND FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REPRESENT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT TO
PROVIDE WEAK NORTHERLY FRESH AIR THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THEREFORE...KEPT DRY WEATHER FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

EXPECTING A COOLER NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF READINGS IN
THE 50S. CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP FRIDAY NIGHT JUST A TOUCH WARMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TWO DISTINCTIVE SHORT WAVE EVIDENT IN H5 CHARTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...KEEPING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AT
LEAST PARTS OF UP COMING WEEKEND. THE FIRST COMES ALONG THE BACK
SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND THE SECOND ONE IN A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

MODELS QPF FIELDS KEEP SATURDAY RELATIVELY DRY...AND TARGET MORE THE
SYSTEM ON SUNDAY WITH A VORTICITY MAX IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PASSING
OVER AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER OUR CWA. THE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE PCPN.
THEREFORE...INCREASED CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO LIKELIES FOR
SUNDAY...AS EXPECTED CONVECTION MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED A BLEND OF DIFFERENT GUIDANCE...WARMER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY PER DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION...WITH
A COOLER TREND AFTER THE WEEKENDS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY TRICKY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. MODELS SHOWING SOME LOW CLOUDS
MOVING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH
NOT TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...LOW CLOUDS HAVE PERSISTED IN NW
OHIO AND IN...SO THINK THAT MODELS COULD HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON
THIS. WILL ALLOW THE LOW CLOUDS TO SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...LIFTING INTO A CUMULUS DECK ON THURSDAY. WITH THE CLOUDS
AND SOME WIND STIRRING...OPTED NOT TO GO WITH FOG. THIS IS VERY
TRICKY THOUGH...AS SOME LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED RAINFALL.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD VARY.
TIMING/EXISTENCE OF LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT COULD VARY. FOG COULD
DEVELOP IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
PKB ASOS IS NOT SENDING A COMPLETE OBSERVATION. NWS TECHS ARE
WORKING ON THE PROBLEM.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...RPY

EQUIPMENT...KTB











000
FXUS61 KRLX 232221
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
616 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER FRONT EARLY THURSDAY.
DRIER AIR BEHIND FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REPRESENT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT TO
PROVIDE WEAK NORTHERLY FRESH AIR THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THEREFORE...KEPT DRY WEATHER FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

EXPECTING A COOLER NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF READINGS IN
THE 50S. CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP FRIDAY NIGHT JUST A TOUCH WARMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TWO DISTINCTIVE SHORT WAVE EVIDENT IN H5 CHARTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...KEEPING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AT
LEAST PARTS OF UP COMING WEEKEND. THE FIRST COMES ALONG THE BACK
SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND THE SECOND ONE IN A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

MODELS QPF FIELDS KEEP SATURDAY RELATIVELY DRY...AND TARGET MORE THE
SYSTEM ON SUNDAY WITH A VORTICITY MAX IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PASSING
OVER AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER OUR CWA. THE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE PCPN.
THEREFORE...INCREASED CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO LIKELIES FOR
SUNDAY...AS EXPECTED CONVECTION MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED A BLEND OF DIFFERENT GUIDANCE...WARMER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY PER DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION...WITH
A COOLER TREND AFTER THE WEEKENDS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA...ARE STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY TOWARDS THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OHIO APPROX 21Z-00Z THU...CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA 00Z-
03Z...AND ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS 06Z-09Z.

CEILINGS WILL BE GENERALLY 3KFT AND ABOVE PREVALENT...WITH MVFR
CIGS AND POSSIBLE IFR VIS UNDERNEATH ANY HEAVIER SHOWER/STORM.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...LIKELY SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE RIDES ALONG THE FRONT. CIGS WILL ALSO
LOWER BEHIND THE FRONT TO AT LEAST LOW/MID MVFR...WITH HIGH IFR
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY THE INTERSTATE 79 CORRIDOR AND POINTS
EAST...AND WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE BY END OF THE VALID PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE ACROSS SE OHIO BY THE DAWN HOURS.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE VARIOUS CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL LIKELY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN LINGERING WAVE ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY MID-AFTERNOON.

IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
PKB ASOS IS NOT SENDING A COMPLETE OBSERVATION. NWS TECHS ARE
WORKING ON THE PROBLEM.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...RPY

EQUIPMENT...KTB









000
FXUS61 KRLX 232221
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
616 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER FRONT EARLY THURSDAY.
DRIER AIR BEHIND FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REPRESENT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT TO
PROVIDE WEAK NORTHERLY FRESH AIR THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THEREFORE...KEPT DRY WEATHER FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

EXPECTING A COOLER NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF READINGS IN
THE 50S. CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP FRIDAY NIGHT JUST A TOUCH WARMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TWO DISTINCTIVE SHORT WAVE EVIDENT IN H5 CHARTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...KEEPING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AT
LEAST PARTS OF UP COMING WEEKEND. THE FIRST COMES ALONG THE BACK
SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND THE SECOND ONE IN A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

MODELS QPF FIELDS KEEP SATURDAY RELATIVELY DRY...AND TARGET MORE THE
SYSTEM ON SUNDAY WITH A VORTICITY MAX IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PASSING
OVER AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER OUR CWA. THE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE PCPN.
THEREFORE...INCREASED CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO LIKELIES FOR
SUNDAY...AS EXPECTED CONVECTION MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED A BLEND OF DIFFERENT GUIDANCE...WARMER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY PER DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION...WITH
A COOLER TREND AFTER THE WEEKENDS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA...ARE STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY TOWARDS THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OHIO APPROX 21Z-00Z THU...CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA 00Z-
03Z...AND ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS 06Z-09Z.

CEILINGS WILL BE GENERALLY 3KFT AND ABOVE PREVALENT...WITH MVFR
CIGS AND POSSIBLE IFR VIS UNDERNEATH ANY HEAVIER SHOWER/STORM.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...LIKELY SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE RIDES ALONG THE FRONT. CIGS WILL ALSO
LOWER BEHIND THE FRONT TO AT LEAST LOW/MID MVFR...WITH HIGH IFR
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY THE INTERSTATE 79 CORRIDOR AND POINTS
EAST...AND WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE BY END OF THE VALID PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE ACROSS SE OHIO BY THE DAWN HOURS.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE VARIOUS CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL LIKELY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN LINGERING WAVE ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY MID-AFTERNOON.

IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
PKB ASOS IS NOT SENDING A COMPLETE OBSERVATION. NWS TECHS ARE
WORKING ON THE PROBLEM.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...RPY

EQUIPMENT...KTB









000
FXUS61 KRLX 232221
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
616 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER FRONT EARLY THURSDAY.
DRIER AIR BEHIND FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REPRESENT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT TO
PROVIDE WEAK NORTHERLY FRESH AIR THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THEREFORE...KEPT DRY WEATHER FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

EXPECTING A COOLER NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF READINGS IN
THE 50S. CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP FRIDAY NIGHT JUST A TOUCH WARMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TWO DISTINCTIVE SHORT WAVE EVIDENT IN H5 CHARTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...KEEPING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AT
LEAST PARTS OF UP COMING WEEKEND. THE FIRST COMES ALONG THE BACK
SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND THE SECOND ONE IN A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

MODELS QPF FIELDS KEEP SATURDAY RELATIVELY DRY...AND TARGET MORE THE
SYSTEM ON SUNDAY WITH A VORTICITY MAX IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PASSING
OVER AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER OUR CWA. THE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE PCPN.
THEREFORE...INCREASED CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO LIKELIES FOR
SUNDAY...AS EXPECTED CONVECTION MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED A BLEND OF DIFFERENT GUIDANCE...WARMER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY PER DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION...WITH
A COOLER TREND AFTER THE WEEKENDS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA...ARE STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY TOWARDS THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OHIO APPROX 21Z-00Z THU...CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA 00Z-
03Z...AND ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS 06Z-09Z.

CEILINGS WILL BE GENERALLY 3KFT AND ABOVE PREVALENT...WITH MVFR
CIGS AND POSSIBLE IFR VIS UNDERNEATH ANY HEAVIER SHOWER/STORM.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...LIKELY SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE RIDES ALONG THE FRONT. CIGS WILL ALSO
LOWER BEHIND THE FRONT TO AT LEAST LOW/MID MVFR...WITH HIGH IFR
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY THE INTERSTATE 79 CORRIDOR AND POINTS
EAST...AND WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE BY END OF THE VALID PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE ACROSS SE OHIO BY THE DAWN HOURS.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE VARIOUS CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL LIKELY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN LINGERING WAVE ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY MID-AFTERNOON.

IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
PKB ASOS IS NOT SENDING A COMPLETE OBSERVATION. NWS TECHS ARE
WORKING ON THE PROBLEM.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...RPY

EQUIPMENT...KTB









000
FXUS61 KRLX 232221
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
616 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER FRONT EARLY THURSDAY.
DRIER AIR BEHIND FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REPRESENT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT TO
PROVIDE WEAK NORTHERLY FRESH AIR THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THEREFORE...KEPT DRY WEATHER FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

EXPECTING A COOLER NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF READINGS IN
THE 50S. CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP FRIDAY NIGHT JUST A TOUCH WARMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TWO DISTINCTIVE SHORT WAVE EVIDENT IN H5 CHARTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...KEEPING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AT
LEAST PARTS OF UP COMING WEEKEND. THE FIRST COMES ALONG THE BACK
SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND THE SECOND ONE IN A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

MODELS QPF FIELDS KEEP SATURDAY RELATIVELY DRY...AND TARGET MORE THE
SYSTEM ON SUNDAY WITH A VORTICITY MAX IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PASSING
OVER AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER OUR CWA. THE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE PCPN.
THEREFORE...INCREASED CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO LIKELIES FOR
SUNDAY...AS EXPECTED CONVECTION MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED A BLEND OF DIFFERENT GUIDANCE...WARMER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY PER DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION...WITH
A COOLER TREND AFTER THE WEEKENDS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA...ARE STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY TOWARDS THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OHIO APPROX 21Z-00Z THU...CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA 00Z-
03Z...AND ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS 06Z-09Z.

CEILINGS WILL BE GENERALLY 3KFT AND ABOVE PREVALENT...WITH MVFR
CIGS AND POSSIBLE IFR VIS UNDERNEATH ANY HEAVIER SHOWER/STORM.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...LIKELY SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE RIDES ALONG THE FRONT. CIGS WILL ALSO
LOWER BEHIND THE FRONT TO AT LEAST LOW/MID MVFR...WITH HIGH IFR
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY THE INTERSTATE 79 CORRIDOR AND POINTS
EAST...AND WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE BY END OF THE VALID PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE ACROSS SE OHIO BY THE DAWN HOURS.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE VARIOUS CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL LIKELY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN LINGERING WAVE ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY MID-AFTERNOON.

IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
PKB ASOS IS NOT SENDING A COMPLETE OBSERVATION. NWS TECHS ARE
WORKING ON THE PROBLEM.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...RPY

EQUIPMENT...KTB









000
FXUS61 KRLX 231913
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
313 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...INCREASING
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SHORTWAVE PASSES
OVER FRONT EARLY THURSDAY. DRIER AIR BEHIND FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY AT ABOUT 14Z DEPICTING A COUPLE OF THIN
PREFRONTAL BANDS OF SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA...WITH MORE GENERAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER WEST OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN OHIO INTO INDIANA. 14Z OBS INDICATE THE SFC FRONT ROUGHLY ON
TRACK WITH FCST...STRETCHING FROM JUST EAST OF TOLEDO OHIO...STILL
WEST OF DAYTON OHIO...AND INTO SE INDIANA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT ITSELF SHOULD BE INTO THE SE OHIO
ZONES BY AROUND 21Z. THE FRONT WILL THEN BEGIN TO SLOW IN ITS
FORWARD PROGRESSION...AND SHOULD BE LOCATED NEAR THE I64 CORRIDOR
BTWN 00Z THU AND 03Z THU...AND STILL NEAR OUR EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY
THE 09Z-12Z THU TIME FRAME. SOME INDICATION VIA NEAR-TERM CONVECTIVE
MODELS AS WELL AS RECENT RAP13 RUNS THAT BULK OF THE STRONGER
CONVECTION MAY MISS THE FAR NW ZONES AND RESIDE MORE IN THE SOUTH
CENTRAL OHIO AND TRI-STATE AREAS LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
ALSO GOING TO ALLOW ISO SEVERE WORDING TO CONTINUE IN CURRENT HWO
WITH MINIMAL WINDS IN THE COLUMN AND VERY HIGH HAIL HEIGHTS...ANY
SEVERE WX SHOULD REMAIN LOCALIZED.

NO WHOLESALE CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW IN
GENERAL. LATEST NAM AND OP GFS RUNS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION
OF THE UPPER TROUGH JUST A BIT VERSUS PREV RUNS. MAINTAIN LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ZONES AT 12Z THU AND WITH
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT OVER THOSE AREAS...WILL LEAVE A
SLIGHT THUNDER CHANCE IN AS WELL. WITH UPPER TROUGH REMAINING
OVERHEAD AT 18Z THU WITH ASSOC COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY...WILL KEEP SKY COVER UP TO REFLECT A PARTLY CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY OVER THE WV ZONES AS A GOOD AMOUNT OF LLVL
MOISTURE PROGGED TO REMAIN UNDERNEATH THE STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. STILL...AS USUAL...THE SE OHIO ZONES AND LOCATIONS CLOSER
TO THE OHIO RIVER WILL STAND TO SEE MORE MID/LATE DAY SUN VERSUS
POINTS FURTHER EAST...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUING FOR THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. STILL EXPECT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S FOR
THE LOWLANDS. DO BELIEVE THAT TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WITH CLOUDS AND AFOREMENTIONED WEAK COLD
ADVECTION CONTINUING...WITH A LATE-DAY REBOUND IN TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT TO
PROVIDE WEAK NORTHERLY FRESH AIR THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THEREFORE...KEPT DRY WEATHER FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

EXPECTING A COOLER NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF READINGS IN
THE 50S. CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP FRIDAY NIGHT JUST A TOUCH WARMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TWO DISTINCTIVE SHORT WAVE EVIDENT IN H5 CHARTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...KEEPING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AT
LEAST PARTS OF UP COMING WEEKEND. THE FIRST COMES ALONG THE BACK
SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND THE SECOND ONE IN A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

MODELS QPF FIELDS KEEP SATURDAY RELATIVELY DRY...AND TARGET MORE THE
SYSTEM ON SUNDAY WITH A VORTICITY MAX IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PASSING
OVER AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER OUR CWA. THE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE PCPN.
THEREFORE...INCREASED CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO LIKELIES FOR
SUNDAY...AS EXPECTED CONVECTION MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED A BLEND OF DIFFERENT GUIDANCE...WARMER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY PER DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION...WITH
A COOLER TREND AFTER THE WEEKENDS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA...ARE STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY TOWARDS THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OHIO APPROX 21Z-00Z THU...CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA 00Z-
03Z...AND ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS 06Z-09Z.

CEILINGS WILL BE GENERALLY 3KFT AND ABOVE PREVALENT...WITH MVFR
CIGS AND POSSIBLE IFR VIS UNDERNEATH ANY HEAVIER SHOWER/STORM.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...LIKELY SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE RIDES ALONG THE FRONT. CIGS WILL ALSO
LOWER BEHIND THE FRONT TO AT LEAST LOW/MID MVFR...WITH HIGH IFR
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY THE INTERSTATE 79 CORRIDOR AND POINTS
EAST...AND WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE BY END OF THE VALID PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE ACROSS SE OHIO BY THE DAWN HOURS.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE VARIOUS CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL LIKELY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN LINGERING WAVE ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY MID-AFTERNOON.

IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
PKB ASOS IS NOT SENDING A COMPLETE OBSERVATION. NWS TECHS ARE
WORKING ON THE PROBLEM.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...50

EQUIPMENT...KTB







000
FXUS61 KRLX 231820
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
220 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...INCREASING
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SHORTWAVE PASSES
OVER FRONT EARLY THURSDAY. DRIER AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY AT ABOUT 14Z DEPICTING A COUPLE OF THIN
PREFRONTAL BANDS OF SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA...WITH MORE GENERAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER WEST OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN OHIO INTO INDIANA. 14Z OBS INDICATE THE SFC FRONT ROUGHLY ON
TRACK WITH FCST...STRETCHING FROM JUST EAST OF TOLEDO OHIO...STILL
WEST OF DAYTON OHIO...AND INTO SE INDIANA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT ITSELF SHOULD BE INTO THE SE OHIO
ZONES BY AROUND 21Z. THE FRONT WILL THEN BEGIN TO SLOW IN ITS
FORWARD PROGRESSION...AND SHOULD BE LOCATED NEAR THE I64 CORRIDOR
BTWN 00Z THU AND 03Z THU...AND STILL NEAR OUR EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY
THE 09Z-12Z THU TIME FRAME. SOME INDICATION VIA NEAR-TERM CONVECTIVE
MODELS AS WELL AS RECENT RAP13 RUNS THAT BULK OF THE STRONGER
CONVECTION MAY MISS THE FAR NW ZONES AND RESIDE MORE IN THE SOUTH
CENTRAL OHIO AND TRI-STATE AREAS LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
ALSO GOING TO ALLOW ISO SEVERE WORDING TO CONTINUE IN CURRENT HWO
WITH MINIMAL WINDS IN THE COLUMN AND VERY HIGH HAIL HEIGHTS...ANY
SEVERE WX SHOULD REMAIN LOCALIZED.

NO WHOLESALE CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW IN
GENERAL. LATEST NAM AND OP GFS RUNS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION
OF THE UPPER TROUGH JUST A BIT VERSUS PREV RUNS. MAINTAIN LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ZONES AT 12Z THU AND WITH
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT OVER THOSE AREAS...WILL LEAVE A
SLIGHT THUNDER CHANCE IN AS WELL. WITH UPPER TROUGH REMAINING
OVERHEAD AT 18Z THU WITH ASSOC COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY...WILL KEEP SKY COVER UP TO REFLECT A PARTLY CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY OVER THE WV ZONES AS A GOOD AMOUNT OF LLVL
MOISTURE PROGGED TO REMAIN UNDERNEATH THE STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. STILL...AS USUAL...THE SE OHIO ZONES AND LOCATIONS CLOSER
TO THE OHIO RIVER WILL STAND TO SEE MORE MID/LATE DAY SUN VERSUS
POINTS FURTHER EAST...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUING FOR THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. STILL EXPECT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S FOR
THE LOWLANDS. DO BELIEVE THAT TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WITH CLOUDS AND AFOREMENTIONED WEAK COLD
ADVECTION CONTINUING...WITH A LATE-DAY REBOUND IN TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WHILE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH FORECAST AREA TO START THE SHORT
TERM...POST FRONTAL PRECIP WILL STILL BE LINGERING AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES. WILL BE DRYING OUT FOR FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES. ALL MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY WEAK 500MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS IN NW FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
INCREASED POPS FRIDAY NIGHT ANTICIPATING DECAYING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ON A STRONG WAA AT 850MB. ALSO INCREASED
POPS ON SATURDAY WITH THE ACTUAL UPPER LEVEL RIPPLE.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND WITH LINGERING CLOUDS...EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS ON THURSDAY TO STAY BELOW 80. ADDED A COUPLE DEGREES TO THAT
FOR FRIDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE...AND THEN ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES
SATURDAY AS THE WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY. EXPECTING A COOLER NIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF READINGS IN THE 50S. CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP
FRIDAY NIGHT JUST A TOUCH WARMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TWO DISTINCTIVE SHORT WAVE EVIDENT IN H5 CHARTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...KEEPING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AT
LEAST PARTS OF UP COMING WEEKEND. THE FIRST COMES ALONG THE BACK
SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND THE SECOND ONE IN A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

MODELS QPF FIELDS KEEP SATURDAY RELATIVELY DRY...AND TARGET MORE THE
SYSTEM ON SUNDAY WITH A VORTICITY MAX IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PASSING
OVER AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER OUR CWA. THE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE PCPN.
THEREFORE...INCREASED CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO LIKELIES FOR
SUNDAY...AS EXPECTED CONVECTION MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED A BLEND OF DIFFERENT GUIDANCE...WARMER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY PER DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION...WITH
A COOLER TREND AFTER THE WEEKENDS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA...ARE STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY TOWARDS THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OHIO APPROX 21Z-00Z THU...CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA 00Z-
03Z...AND ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS 06Z-09Z.

CEILINGS WILL BE GENERALLY 3KFT AND ABOVE PREVALENT...WITH MVFR
CIGS AND POSSIBLE IFR VIS UNDERNEATH ANY HEAVIER SHOWER/STORM.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...LIKELY SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE RIDES ALONG THE FRONT. CIGS WILL ALSO
LOWER BEHIND THE FRONT TO AT LEAST LOW/MID MVFR...WITH HIGH IFR
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY THE INTERSTATE 79 CORRIDOR AND POINTS
EAST...AND WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE BY END OF THE VALID PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE ACROSS SE OHIO BY THE DAWN HOURS.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE VARIOUS CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL LIKELY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN LINGERING WAVE ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY MID-AFTERNOON.

IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
PKB ASOS IS NOT SENDING A COMPLETE OBSERVATION. NWS TECHS ARE
WORKING ON THE PROBLEM.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ/50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JS

EQUIPMENT...50







000
FXUS61 KRLX 231820
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
220 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...INCREASING
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SHORTWAVE PASSES
OVER FRONT EARLY THURSDAY. DRIER AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY AT ABOUT 14Z DEPICTING A COUPLE OF THIN
PREFRONTAL BANDS OF SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA...WITH MORE GENERAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER WEST OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN OHIO INTO INDIANA. 14Z OBS INDICATE THE SFC FRONT ROUGHLY ON
TRACK WITH FCST...STRETCHING FROM JUST EAST OF TOLEDO OHIO...STILL
WEST OF DAYTON OHIO...AND INTO SE INDIANA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT ITSELF SHOULD BE INTO THE SE OHIO
ZONES BY AROUND 21Z. THE FRONT WILL THEN BEGIN TO SLOW IN ITS
FORWARD PROGRESSION...AND SHOULD BE LOCATED NEAR THE I64 CORRIDOR
BTWN 00Z THU AND 03Z THU...AND STILL NEAR OUR EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY
THE 09Z-12Z THU TIME FRAME. SOME INDICATION VIA NEAR-TERM CONVECTIVE
MODELS AS WELL AS RECENT RAP13 RUNS THAT BULK OF THE STRONGER
CONVECTION MAY MISS THE FAR NW ZONES AND RESIDE MORE IN THE SOUTH
CENTRAL OHIO AND TRI-STATE AREAS LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
ALSO GOING TO ALLOW ISO SEVERE WORDING TO CONTINUE IN CURRENT HWO
WITH MINIMAL WINDS IN THE COLUMN AND VERY HIGH HAIL HEIGHTS...ANY
SEVERE WX SHOULD REMAIN LOCALIZED.

NO WHOLESALE CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW IN
GENERAL. LATEST NAM AND OP GFS RUNS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION
OF THE UPPER TROUGH JUST A BIT VERSUS PREV RUNS. MAINTAIN LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ZONES AT 12Z THU AND WITH
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT OVER THOSE AREAS...WILL LEAVE A
SLIGHT THUNDER CHANCE IN AS WELL. WITH UPPER TROUGH REMAINING
OVERHEAD AT 18Z THU WITH ASSOC COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY...WILL KEEP SKY COVER UP TO REFLECT A PARTLY CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY OVER THE WV ZONES AS A GOOD AMOUNT OF LLVL
MOISTURE PROGGED TO REMAIN UNDERNEATH THE STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. STILL...AS USUAL...THE SE OHIO ZONES AND LOCATIONS CLOSER
TO THE OHIO RIVER WILL STAND TO SEE MORE MID/LATE DAY SUN VERSUS
POINTS FURTHER EAST...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUING FOR THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. STILL EXPECT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S FOR
THE LOWLANDS. DO BELIEVE THAT TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WITH CLOUDS AND AFOREMENTIONED WEAK COLD
ADVECTION CONTINUING...WITH A LATE-DAY REBOUND IN TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WHILE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH FORECAST AREA TO START THE SHORT
TERM...POST FRONTAL PRECIP WILL STILL BE LINGERING AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES. WILL BE DRYING OUT FOR FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES. ALL MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY WEAK 500MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS IN NW FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
INCREASED POPS FRIDAY NIGHT ANTICIPATING DECAYING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ON A STRONG WAA AT 850MB. ALSO INCREASED
POPS ON SATURDAY WITH THE ACTUAL UPPER LEVEL RIPPLE.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND WITH LINGERING CLOUDS...EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS ON THURSDAY TO STAY BELOW 80. ADDED A COUPLE DEGREES TO THAT
FOR FRIDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE...AND THEN ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES
SATURDAY AS THE WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY. EXPECTING A COOLER NIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF READINGS IN THE 50S. CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP
FRIDAY NIGHT JUST A TOUCH WARMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TWO DISTINCTIVE SHORT WAVE EVIDENT IN H5 CHARTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...KEEPING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AT
LEAST PARTS OF UP COMING WEEKEND. THE FIRST COMES ALONG THE BACK
SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND THE SECOND ONE IN A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

MODELS QPF FIELDS KEEP SATURDAY RELATIVELY DRY...AND TARGET MORE THE
SYSTEM ON SUNDAY WITH A VORTICITY MAX IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PASSING
OVER AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER OUR CWA. THE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE PCPN.
THEREFORE...INCREASED CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO LIKELIES FOR
SUNDAY...AS EXPECTED CONVECTION MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED A BLEND OF DIFFERENT GUIDANCE...WARMER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY PER DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION...WITH
A COOLER TREND AFTER THE WEEKENDS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA...ARE STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY TOWARDS THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OHIO APPROX 21Z-00Z THU...CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA 00Z-
03Z...AND ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS 06Z-09Z.

CEILINGS WILL BE GENERALLY 3KFT AND ABOVE PREVALENT...WITH MVFR
CIGS AND POSSIBLE IFR VIS UNDERNEATH ANY HEAVIER SHOWER/STORM.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...LIKELY SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE RIDES ALONG THE FRONT. CIGS WILL ALSO
LOWER BEHIND THE FRONT TO AT LEAST LOW/MID MVFR...WITH HIGH IFR
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY THE INTERSTATE 79 CORRIDOR AND POINTS
EAST...AND WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE BY END OF THE VALID PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE ACROSS SE OHIO BY THE DAWN HOURS.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE VARIOUS CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL LIKELY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN LINGERING WAVE ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY MID-AFTERNOON.

IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
PKB ASOS IS NOT SENDING A COMPLETE OBSERVATION. NWS TECHS ARE
WORKING ON THE PROBLEM.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ/50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JS

EQUIPMENT...50








000
FXUS61 KRLX 231757
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
157 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH...INCREASING SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER FRONT EARLY THURSDAY.
DRIER AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY. BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
130 PM UPDATE...
STILL HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDER OVER THE FORECAST
AREA BUT HAVE LOWERED POPS ONCE AGAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST TO DELAY
ONSET OF HIGHEST POPS.

1030 AM UPDATE...
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO POPS AND SKY TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND
TRENDS. INCREASED POPS/SKY JUST A BIT MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE I79
CORRIDOR AS A COUPLE OF THIN PREFRONTAL BANDS OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER MOVE SLOWLY EAST/SOUTHEAST. LOWERED POPS THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WITH CURRENT
VIS SHOWING A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE OVER THAT AREA. STILL EXPECT
A QUICK RAMP-UP OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP BY THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CERTAINLY WAS A WARM AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING...WITH
DEW POINTS ON EITHER SIDE OF 70 DEGREES.

HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACTLY HOW THE AREAS OF CONVECTION WILL
EVOLVE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.  YET...TRIED TO KEEP THE HIGHER POPS...IN
THE LIKELY RANGE...OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR TODAY...THEN LINGERED
THOSE HIGHER POPS A BIT LONGER IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATE
TONIGHT...AS THE MID LEVEL 500 MB TROF AXIS ACTS ON THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE.

EVEN AS DAWN APPROACHES...COULD NOT RULE OUT SHOWERS FORMING THIS
MORNING...PATCHES OF CLOUDS HAVE BEEN FORMING PAST FEW HOURS.
PROBABLY RELATED TO THE INCREASE LOW LEVEL FLOW...COULD NOT
LOCATE/FIND ANY DISTURBANCES.  SO WE STILL KEPT THE FOG AT A MINIMUM
FOR DAWN.  MOSTLY IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM DURING THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY FURTHER
SOUTH...AWAY FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT...OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS TRY TO REACH 35 TO 40 THSD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOWLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.  MID LEVEL WINDS RATHER WEAK.
YET...COULD NOT RULE OUT A PULSE STORM REACHING SEVERE LIMITS...BUT
OVERALL THE THREAT FOR A LOT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR LARGE STILL
APPEARS TO BE RATHER LOW.  OF COURSE THE USUAL LIGHTNING AND
DOWNPOURS STILL DESERVES RESPECT.

HAVE THE FRONT ITSELF REACHING INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY NEAR
MARIETTA AND PARKERSBURG AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING...THEN REACHING OUT
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AROUND BKW ABOUT 09Z THURSDAY.  YET...WINDS AT
MOST LEVELS BEGIN TO VEER BEFORE THE SURFACE FRONT PASSES.

HAVE THUNDER CHANCES DECREASING N/S OVERNIGHT...EVEN THOUGH POPS
REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH IN THE SOUTH DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH WHERE CLOUDS
AND HIGHER POPS EXPECTED SOONER.

HAVE THE NORTH WIND DRIVING SOUTH IN SOUTHEAST OHIO TONIGHT...WITH
SOME CLEARING THERE LATE TONIGHT...AND LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
A BIT ESPECIALLY FROM HOCKING VALLEY NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WHILE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH FORECAST AREA TO START THE SHORT
TERM...POST FRONTAL PRECIP WILL STILL BE LINGERING AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES. WILL BE DRYING OUT FOR FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES. ALL MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY WEAK 500MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS IN NW FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
INCREASED POPS FRIDAY NIGHT ANTICIPATING DECAYING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ON A STRONG WAA AT 850MB. ALSO INCREASED
POPS ON SATURDAY WITH THE ACTUAL UPPER LEVEL RIPPLE.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND WITH LINGERING CLOUDS...EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS ON THURSDAY TO STAY BELOW 80. ADDED A COUPLE DEGREES TO THAT
FOR FRIDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE...AND THEN ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES
SATURDAY AS THE WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY. EXPECTING A COOLER NIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF READINGS IN THE 50S. CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP
FRIDAY NIGHT JUST A TOUCH WARMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TWO DISTINCTIVE SHORT WAVE EVIDENT IN H5 CHARTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...KEEPING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AT
LEAST PARTS OF UP COMING WEEKEND. THE FIRST COMES ALONG THE BACK
SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND THE SECOND ONE IN A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

MODELS QPF FIELDS KEEP SATURDAY RELATIVELY DRY...AND TARGET MORE THE
SYSTEM ON SUNDAY WITH A VORTICITY MAX IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PASSING
OVER AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER OUR CWA. THE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE PCPN.
THEREFORE...INCREASED CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO LIKELIES FOR
SUNDAY...AS EXPECTED CONVECTION MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED A BLEND OF DIFFERENT GUIDANCE...WARMER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY PER DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION...WITH
A COOLER TREND AFTER THE WEEKENDS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA...ARE STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY TOWARDS THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OHIO APPROX 21Z-00Z THU...CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA 00Z-
03Z...AND ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS 06Z-09Z.

CEILINGS WILL BE GENERALLY 3KFT AND ABOVE PREVALENT...WITH MVFR
CIGS AND POSSIBLE IFR VIS UNDERNEATH ANY HEAVIER SHOWER/STORM.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...LIKELY SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE RIDES ALONG THE FRONT. CIGS WILL ALSO
LOWER BEHIND THE FRONT TO AT LEAST LOW/MID MVFR...WITH HIGH IFR
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY THE INTERSTATE 79 CORRIDOR AND POINTS
EAST...AND WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE BY END OF THE VALID PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE ACROSS SE OHIO BY THE DAWN HOURS.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE VARIOUS CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL LIKELY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN LINGERING WAVE ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY MID-AFTERNOON.

IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
PKB ASOS IS NOT SENDING A COMPLETE OBSERVATION. NWS TECHS ARE
WORKING ON THE PROBLEM.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/50
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JS

EQUIPMENT...50







000
FXUS61 KRLX 231757
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
157 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH...INCREASING SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER FRONT EARLY THURSDAY.
DRIER AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY. BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
130 PM UPDATE...
STILL HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDER OVER THE FORECAST
AREA BUT HAVE LOWERED POPS ONCE AGAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST TO DELAY
ONSET OF HIGHEST POPS.

1030 AM UPDATE...
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO POPS AND SKY TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND
TRENDS. INCREASED POPS/SKY JUST A BIT MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE I79
CORRIDOR AS A COUPLE OF THIN PREFRONTAL BANDS OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER MOVE SLOWLY EAST/SOUTHEAST. LOWERED POPS THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WITH CURRENT
VIS SHOWING A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE OVER THAT AREA. STILL EXPECT
A QUICK RAMP-UP OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP BY THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CERTAINLY WAS A WARM AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING...WITH
DEW POINTS ON EITHER SIDE OF 70 DEGREES.

HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACTLY HOW THE AREAS OF CONVECTION WILL
EVOLVE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.  YET...TRIED TO KEEP THE HIGHER POPS...IN
THE LIKELY RANGE...OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR TODAY...THEN LINGERED
THOSE HIGHER POPS A BIT LONGER IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATE
TONIGHT...AS THE MID LEVEL 500 MB TROF AXIS ACTS ON THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE.

EVEN AS DAWN APPROACHES...COULD NOT RULE OUT SHOWERS FORMING THIS
MORNING...PATCHES OF CLOUDS HAVE BEEN FORMING PAST FEW HOURS.
PROBABLY RELATED TO THE INCREASE LOW LEVEL FLOW...COULD NOT
LOCATE/FIND ANY DISTURBANCES.  SO WE STILL KEPT THE FOG AT A MINIMUM
FOR DAWN.  MOSTLY IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM DURING THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY FURTHER
SOUTH...AWAY FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT...OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS TRY TO REACH 35 TO 40 THSD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOWLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.  MID LEVEL WINDS RATHER WEAK.
YET...COULD NOT RULE OUT A PULSE STORM REACHING SEVERE LIMITS...BUT
OVERALL THE THREAT FOR A LOT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR LARGE STILL
APPEARS TO BE RATHER LOW.  OF COURSE THE USUAL LIGHTNING AND
DOWNPOURS STILL DESERVES RESPECT.

HAVE THE FRONT ITSELF REACHING INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY NEAR
MARIETTA AND PARKERSBURG AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING...THEN REACHING OUT
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AROUND BKW ABOUT 09Z THURSDAY.  YET...WINDS AT
MOST LEVELS BEGIN TO VEER BEFORE THE SURFACE FRONT PASSES.

HAVE THUNDER CHANCES DECREASING N/S OVERNIGHT...EVEN THOUGH POPS
REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH IN THE SOUTH DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH WHERE CLOUDS
AND HIGHER POPS EXPECTED SOONER.

HAVE THE NORTH WIND DRIVING SOUTH IN SOUTHEAST OHIO TONIGHT...WITH
SOME CLEARING THERE LATE TONIGHT...AND LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
A BIT ESPECIALLY FROM HOCKING VALLEY NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WHILE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH FORECAST AREA TO START THE SHORT
TERM...POST FRONTAL PRECIP WILL STILL BE LINGERING AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES. WILL BE DRYING OUT FOR FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES. ALL MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY WEAK 500MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS IN NW FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
INCREASED POPS FRIDAY NIGHT ANTICIPATING DECAYING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ON A STRONG WAA AT 850MB. ALSO INCREASED
POPS ON SATURDAY WITH THE ACTUAL UPPER LEVEL RIPPLE.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND WITH LINGERING CLOUDS...EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS ON THURSDAY TO STAY BELOW 80. ADDED A COUPLE DEGREES TO THAT
FOR FRIDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE...AND THEN ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES
SATURDAY AS THE WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY. EXPECTING A COOLER NIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF READINGS IN THE 50S. CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP
FRIDAY NIGHT JUST A TOUCH WARMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TWO DISTINCTIVE SHORT WAVE EVIDENT IN H5 CHARTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...KEEPING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AT
LEAST PARTS OF UP COMING WEEKEND. THE FIRST COMES ALONG THE BACK
SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND THE SECOND ONE IN A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

MODELS QPF FIELDS KEEP SATURDAY RELATIVELY DRY...AND TARGET MORE THE
SYSTEM ON SUNDAY WITH A VORTICITY MAX IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PASSING
OVER AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER OUR CWA. THE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE PCPN.
THEREFORE...INCREASED CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO LIKELIES FOR
SUNDAY...AS EXPECTED CONVECTION MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED A BLEND OF DIFFERENT GUIDANCE...WARMER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY PER DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION...WITH
A COOLER TREND AFTER THE WEEKENDS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA...ARE STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY TOWARDS THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OHIO APPROX 21Z-00Z THU...CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA 00Z-
03Z...AND ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS 06Z-09Z.

CEILINGS WILL BE GENERALLY 3KFT AND ABOVE PREVALENT...WITH MVFR
CIGS AND POSSIBLE IFR VIS UNDERNEATH ANY HEAVIER SHOWER/STORM.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...LIKELY SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE RIDES ALONG THE FRONT. CIGS WILL ALSO
LOWER BEHIND THE FRONT TO AT LEAST LOW/MID MVFR...WITH HIGH IFR
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY THE INTERSTATE 79 CORRIDOR AND POINTS
EAST...AND WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE BY END OF THE VALID PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE ACROSS SE OHIO BY THE DAWN HOURS.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE VARIOUS CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL LIKELY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN LINGERING WAVE ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY MID-AFTERNOON.

IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
PKB ASOS IS NOT SENDING A COMPLETE OBSERVATION. NWS TECHS ARE
WORKING ON THE PROBLEM.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/50
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JS

EQUIPMENT...50







000
FXUS61 KRLX 231757
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
157 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH...INCREASING SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER FRONT EARLY THURSDAY.
DRIER AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY. BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
130 PM UPDATE...
STILL HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDER OVER THE FORECAST
AREA BUT HAVE LOWERED POPS ONCE AGAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST TO DELAY
ONSET OF HIGHEST POPS.

1030 AM UPDATE...
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO POPS AND SKY TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND
TRENDS. INCREASED POPS/SKY JUST A BIT MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE I79
CORRIDOR AS A COUPLE OF THIN PREFRONTAL BANDS OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER MOVE SLOWLY EAST/SOUTHEAST. LOWERED POPS THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WITH CURRENT
VIS SHOWING A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE OVER THAT AREA. STILL EXPECT
A QUICK RAMP-UP OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP BY THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CERTAINLY WAS A WARM AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING...WITH
DEW POINTS ON EITHER SIDE OF 70 DEGREES.

HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACTLY HOW THE AREAS OF CONVECTION WILL
EVOLVE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.  YET...TRIED TO KEEP THE HIGHER POPS...IN
THE LIKELY RANGE...OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR TODAY...THEN LINGERED
THOSE HIGHER POPS A BIT LONGER IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATE
TONIGHT...AS THE MID LEVEL 500 MB TROF AXIS ACTS ON THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE.

EVEN AS DAWN APPROACHES...COULD NOT RULE OUT SHOWERS FORMING THIS
MORNING...PATCHES OF CLOUDS HAVE BEEN FORMING PAST FEW HOURS.
PROBABLY RELATED TO THE INCREASE LOW LEVEL FLOW...COULD NOT
LOCATE/FIND ANY DISTURBANCES.  SO WE STILL KEPT THE FOG AT A MINIMUM
FOR DAWN.  MOSTLY IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM DURING THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY FURTHER
SOUTH...AWAY FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT...OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS TRY TO REACH 35 TO 40 THSD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOWLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.  MID LEVEL WINDS RATHER WEAK.
YET...COULD NOT RULE OUT A PULSE STORM REACHING SEVERE LIMITS...BUT
OVERALL THE THREAT FOR A LOT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR LARGE STILL
APPEARS TO BE RATHER LOW.  OF COURSE THE USUAL LIGHTNING AND
DOWNPOURS STILL DESERVES RESPECT.

HAVE THE FRONT ITSELF REACHING INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY NEAR
MARIETTA AND PARKERSBURG AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING...THEN REACHING OUT
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AROUND BKW ABOUT 09Z THURSDAY.  YET...WINDS AT
MOST LEVELS BEGIN TO VEER BEFORE THE SURFACE FRONT PASSES.

HAVE THUNDER CHANCES DECREASING N/S OVERNIGHT...EVEN THOUGH POPS
REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH IN THE SOUTH DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH WHERE CLOUDS
AND HIGHER POPS EXPECTED SOONER.

HAVE THE NORTH WIND DRIVING SOUTH IN SOUTHEAST OHIO TONIGHT...WITH
SOME CLEARING THERE LATE TONIGHT...AND LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
A BIT ESPECIALLY FROM HOCKING VALLEY NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WHILE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH FORECAST AREA TO START THE SHORT
TERM...POST FRONTAL PRECIP WILL STILL BE LINGERING AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES. WILL BE DRYING OUT FOR FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES. ALL MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY WEAK 500MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS IN NW FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
INCREASED POPS FRIDAY NIGHT ANTICIPATING DECAYING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ON A STRONG WAA AT 850MB. ALSO INCREASED
POPS ON SATURDAY WITH THE ACTUAL UPPER LEVEL RIPPLE.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND WITH LINGERING CLOUDS...EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS ON THURSDAY TO STAY BELOW 80. ADDED A COUPLE DEGREES TO THAT
FOR FRIDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE...AND THEN ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES
SATURDAY AS THE WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY. EXPECTING A COOLER NIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF READINGS IN THE 50S. CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP
FRIDAY NIGHT JUST A TOUCH WARMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TWO DISTINCTIVE SHORT WAVE EVIDENT IN H5 CHARTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...KEEPING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AT
LEAST PARTS OF UP COMING WEEKEND. THE FIRST COMES ALONG THE BACK
SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND THE SECOND ONE IN A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

MODELS QPF FIELDS KEEP SATURDAY RELATIVELY DRY...AND TARGET MORE THE
SYSTEM ON SUNDAY WITH A VORTICITY MAX IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PASSING
OVER AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER OUR CWA. THE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE PCPN.
THEREFORE...INCREASED CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO LIKELIES FOR
SUNDAY...AS EXPECTED CONVECTION MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED A BLEND OF DIFFERENT GUIDANCE...WARMER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY PER DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION...WITH
A COOLER TREND AFTER THE WEEKENDS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA...ARE STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY TOWARDS THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OHIO APPROX 21Z-00Z THU...CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA 00Z-
03Z...AND ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS 06Z-09Z.

CEILINGS WILL BE GENERALLY 3KFT AND ABOVE PREVALENT...WITH MVFR
CIGS AND POSSIBLE IFR VIS UNDERNEATH ANY HEAVIER SHOWER/STORM.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...LIKELY SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE RIDES ALONG THE FRONT. CIGS WILL ALSO
LOWER BEHIND THE FRONT TO AT LEAST LOW/MID MVFR...WITH HIGH IFR
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY THE INTERSTATE 79 CORRIDOR AND POINTS
EAST...AND WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE BY END OF THE VALID PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE ACROSS SE OHIO BY THE DAWN HOURS.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE VARIOUS CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL LIKELY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN LINGERING WAVE ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY MID-AFTERNOON.

IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
PKB ASOS IS NOT SENDING A COMPLETE OBSERVATION. NWS TECHS ARE
WORKING ON THE PROBLEM.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/50
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JS

EQUIPMENT...50







000
FXUS61 KRLX 231757
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
157 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH...INCREASING SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER FRONT EARLY THURSDAY.
DRIER AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY. BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
130 PM UPDATE...
STILL HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDER OVER THE FORECAST
AREA BUT HAVE LOWERED POPS ONCE AGAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST TO DELAY
ONSET OF HIGHEST POPS.

1030 AM UPDATE...
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO POPS AND SKY TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND
TRENDS. INCREASED POPS/SKY JUST A BIT MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE I79
CORRIDOR AS A COUPLE OF THIN PREFRONTAL BANDS OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER MOVE SLOWLY EAST/SOUTHEAST. LOWERED POPS THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WITH CURRENT
VIS SHOWING A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE OVER THAT AREA. STILL EXPECT
A QUICK RAMP-UP OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP BY THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CERTAINLY WAS A WARM AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING...WITH
DEW POINTS ON EITHER SIDE OF 70 DEGREES.

HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACTLY HOW THE AREAS OF CONVECTION WILL
EVOLVE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.  YET...TRIED TO KEEP THE HIGHER POPS...IN
THE LIKELY RANGE...OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR TODAY...THEN LINGERED
THOSE HIGHER POPS A BIT LONGER IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATE
TONIGHT...AS THE MID LEVEL 500 MB TROF AXIS ACTS ON THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE.

EVEN AS DAWN APPROACHES...COULD NOT RULE OUT SHOWERS FORMING THIS
MORNING...PATCHES OF CLOUDS HAVE BEEN FORMING PAST FEW HOURS.
PROBABLY RELATED TO THE INCREASE LOW LEVEL FLOW...COULD NOT
LOCATE/FIND ANY DISTURBANCES.  SO WE STILL KEPT THE FOG AT A MINIMUM
FOR DAWN.  MOSTLY IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM DURING THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY FURTHER
SOUTH...AWAY FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT...OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS TRY TO REACH 35 TO 40 THSD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOWLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.  MID LEVEL WINDS RATHER WEAK.
YET...COULD NOT RULE OUT A PULSE STORM REACHING SEVERE LIMITS...BUT
OVERALL THE THREAT FOR A LOT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR LARGE STILL
APPEARS TO BE RATHER LOW.  OF COURSE THE USUAL LIGHTNING AND
DOWNPOURS STILL DESERVES RESPECT.

HAVE THE FRONT ITSELF REACHING INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY NEAR
MARIETTA AND PARKERSBURG AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING...THEN REACHING OUT
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AROUND BKW ABOUT 09Z THURSDAY.  YET...WINDS AT
MOST LEVELS BEGIN TO VEER BEFORE THE SURFACE FRONT PASSES.

HAVE THUNDER CHANCES DECREASING N/S OVERNIGHT...EVEN THOUGH POPS
REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH IN THE SOUTH DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH WHERE CLOUDS
AND HIGHER POPS EXPECTED SOONER.

HAVE THE NORTH WIND DRIVING SOUTH IN SOUTHEAST OHIO TONIGHT...WITH
SOME CLEARING THERE LATE TONIGHT...AND LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
A BIT ESPECIALLY FROM HOCKING VALLEY NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WHILE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH FORECAST AREA TO START THE SHORT
TERM...POST FRONTAL PRECIP WILL STILL BE LINGERING AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES. WILL BE DRYING OUT FOR FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES. ALL MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY WEAK 500MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS IN NW FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
INCREASED POPS FRIDAY NIGHT ANTICIPATING DECAYING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ON A STRONG WAA AT 850MB. ALSO INCREASED
POPS ON SATURDAY WITH THE ACTUAL UPPER LEVEL RIPPLE.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND WITH LINGERING CLOUDS...EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS ON THURSDAY TO STAY BELOW 80. ADDED A COUPLE DEGREES TO THAT
FOR FRIDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE...AND THEN ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES
SATURDAY AS THE WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY. EXPECTING A COOLER NIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF READINGS IN THE 50S. CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP
FRIDAY NIGHT JUST A TOUCH WARMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TWO DISTINCTIVE SHORT WAVE EVIDENT IN H5 CHARTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...KEEPING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AT
LEAST PARTS OF UP COMING WEEKEND. THE FIRST COMES ALONG THE BACK
SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND THE SECOND ONE IN A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

MODELS QPF FIELDS KEEP SATURDAY RELATIVELY DRY...AND TARGET MORE THE
SYSTEM ON SUNDAY WITH A VORTICITY MAX IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PASSING
OVER AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER OUR CWA. THE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE PCPN.
THEREFORE...INCREASED CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO LIKELIES FOR
SUNDAY...AS EXPECTED CONVECTION MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED A BLEND OF DIFFERENT GUIDANCE...WARMER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY PER DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION...WITH
A COOLER TREND AFTER THE WEEKENDS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA...ARE STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY TOWARDS THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OHIO APPROX 21Z-00Z THU...CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA 00Z-
03Z...AND ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS 06Z-09Z.

CEILINGS WILL BE GENERALLY 3KFT AND ABOVE PREVALENT...WITH MVFR
CIGS AND POSSIBLE IFR VIS UNDERNEATH ANY HEAVIER SHOWER/STORM.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...LIKELY SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE RIDES ALONG THE FRONT. CIGS WILL ALSO
LOWER BEHIND THE FRONT TO AT LEAST LOW/MID MVFR...WITH HIGH IFR
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY THE INTERSTATE 79 CORRIDOR AND POINTS
EAST...AND WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE BY END OF THE VALID PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE ACROSS SE OHIO BY THE DAWN HOURS.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE VARIOUS CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL LIKELY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN LINGERING WAVE ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY MID-AFTERNOON.

IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
PKB ASOS IS NOT SENDING A COMPLETE OBSERVATION. NWS TECHS ARE
WORKING ON THE PROBLEM.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/50
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JS

EQUIPMENT...50







000
FXUS61 KRLX 231620
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1220 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH...INCREASING SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER FRONT EARLY THURSDAY.
DRIER AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY. BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO POPS AND SKY TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND
TRENDS. INCREASED POPS/SKY JUST A BIT MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE I79
CORRIDOR AS A COUPLE OF THIN PREFRONTAL BANDS OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER MOVE SLOWLY EAST/SOUTHEAST. LOWERED POPS THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WITH CURRENT
VIS SHOWING A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE OVER THAT AREA. STILL EXPECT
A QUICK RAMP-UP OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP BY THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CERTAINLY WAS A WARM AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING...WITH
DEW POINTS ON EITHER SIDE OF 70 DEGREES.

HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACTLY HOW THE AREAS OF CONVECTION WILL
EVOLVE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.  YET...TRIED TO KEEP THE HIGHER POPS...IN
THE LIKELY RANGE...OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR TODAY...THEN LINGERED
THOSE HIGHER POPS A BIT LONGER IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATE
TONIGHT...AS THE MID LEVEL 500 MB TROF AXIS ACTS ON THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE.

EVEN AS DAWN APPROACHES...COULD NOT RULE OUT SHOWERS FORMING THIS
MORNING...PATCHES OF CLOUDS HAVE BEEN FORMING PAST FEW HOURS.
PROBABLY RELATED TO THE INCREASE LOW LEVEL FLOW...COULD NOT
LOCATE/FIND ANY DISTURBANCES.  SO WE STILL KEPT THE FOG AT A MINIMUM
FOR DAWN.  MOSTLY IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM DURING THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY FURTHER
SOUTH...AWAY FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT...OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS TRY TO REACH 35 TO 40 THSD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOWLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.  MID LEVEL WINDS RATHER WEAK.
YET...COULD NOT RULE OUT A PULSE STORM REACHING SEVERE LIMITS...BUT
OVERALL THE THREAT FOR A LOT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR LARGE STILL
APPEARS TO BE RATHER LOW.  OF COURSE THE USUAL LIGHTNING AND
DOWNPOURS STILL DESERVES RESPECT.

HAVE THE FRONT ITSELF REACHING INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY NEAR
MARIETTA AND PARKERSBURG AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING...THEN REACHING OUT
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AROUND BKW ABOUT 09Z THURSDAY.  YET...WINDS AT
MOST LEVELS BEGIN TO VEER BEFORE THE SURFACE FRONT PASSES.

HAVE THUNDER CHANCES DECREASING N/S OVERNIGHT...EVEN THOUGH POPS
REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH IN THE SOUTH DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH WHERE CLOUDS
AND HIGHER POPS EXPECTED SOONER.

HAVE THE NORTH WIND DRIVING SOUTH IN SOUTHEAST OHIO TONIGHT...WITH
SOME CLEARING THERE LATE TONIGHT...AND LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
A BIT ESPECIALLY FROM HOCKING VALLEY NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WHILE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH FORECAST AREA TO START THE SHORT
TERM...POST FRONTAL PRECIP WILL STILL BE LINGERING AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES. WILL BE DRYING OUT FOR FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES. ALL MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY WEAK 500MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS IN NW FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
INCREASED POPS FRIDAY NIGHT ANTICIPATING DECAYING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ON A STRONG WAA AT 850MB. ALSO INCREASED
POPS ON SATURDAY WITH THE ACTUAL UPPER LEVEL RIPPLE.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND WITH LINGERING CLOUDS...EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS ON THURSDAY TO STAY BELOW 80. ADDED A COUPLE DEGREES TO THAT
FOR FRIDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE...AND THEN ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES
SATURDAY AS THE WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY. EXPECTING A COOLER NIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF READINGS IN THE 50S. CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP
FRIDAY NIGHT JUST A TOUCH WARMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TWO DISTINCTIVE SHORT WAVE EVIDENT IN H5 CHARTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...KEEPING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AT
LEAST PARTS OF UP COMING WEEKEND. THE FIRST COMES ALONG THE BACK
SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND THE SECOND ONE IN A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

MODELS QPF FIELDS KEEP SATURDAY RELATIVELY DRY...AND TARGET MORE THE
SYSTEM ON SUNDAY WITH A VORTICITY MAX IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PASSING
OVER AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER OUR CWA. THE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE PCPN.
THEREFORE...INCREASED CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO LIKELIES FOR
SUNDAY...AS EXPECTED CONVECTION MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED A BLEND OF DIFFERENT GUIDANCE...WARMER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY PER DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION...WITH
A COOLER TREND AFTER THE WEEKENDS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO FORM SPOTTY SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. CELLS DID FORM PKB TO CKB VCNTY AROUND
10Z. MAY BE RELATED TO THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW...AFTER 2
DAYS OF DEAD FLOW.

OUTFLOW FROMM OLDER CONVECTION SINKING SOUTH THROUGH OHIO.  INCREASED
POPS SOONER IN SOUTHEAST OHIO THIS MORNING.

STILL TIMING THE FRONT TO REACH THE MID OHIO VALLEY AROUND PKB ABOUT
00Z...THEN EKN TO CRW AROUND 04Z...AND THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AROUND
BKW BEFORE DAWN...AROUND 08Z.

TIMING THE VARIOUS ROUNDS OF CONVECTION TODAY INTO TONIGHT...HAS
CONFIDENCE LEVEL LOWERED TO LOW.  THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME SEPARATE
CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AWAY FROM THE
FRONT...DUE TO THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY.   HAVE THE LIKELY
POPS...MOST COVERAGE...AHEAD OF THE FRONT ITSELF. THOSE LIKELY POPS
REACHING INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AFTER 15Z...AND INTO CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA TOWARD 18Z...THEN HTS TO CRW CORRIDOR 20/21Z...AND BKW
AFTER 00Z.  AGAIN THAT IS FOR THE MOST COVERAGE.

CEILINGS 2 TO 3 THSD FT AND VSBY AOB 3 MILES IN ANY PREFRONTAL
CONVECTION.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...HAVE SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES AT 06Z THURSDAY...WITH WAVE ACTION ALONG THE
FRONT.  SO HOLDING LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT TRANSITIONING
TO MOSTLY SHOWERS...RATHER THAN THUNDERSTORMS.

CEILINGS LOWERING 1 TO 2 THSD FT AND VSBY AROUND 3 MILES IN POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS.  CEILINGS OVER HIGH MOUNTAINS LIKELY TO DROP BELOW
1 THSD FT AND VSBY BLO 3 MILES.

MEANWHILE...DRIER AIR MOVING SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND TOWARD
PKB.  SO HAVE CEILINGS STARTING TO IMPROVE/LIFT FROM THE NORTH TOWARD
06Z THURSDAY...THEN CONTINUING TO IMPROVE IN THE MID OHIO VALLEY 06Z
TO 12Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE VARIOUS CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL LIKELY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN LINGERING WAVE ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
PKB ASOS IS NOT SENDING A COMPLETE OBSERVATION. NWS TECHS ARE
WORKING ON THE PROBLEM.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/50
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JS

EQUIPMENT...KTB








000
FXUS61 KRLX 231620
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1220 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH...INCREASING SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER FRONT EARLY THURSDAY.
DRIER AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY. BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO POPS AND SKY TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND
TRENDS. INCREASED POPS/SKY JUST A BIT MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE I79
CORRIDOR AS A COUPLE OF THIN PREFRONTAL BANDS OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER MOVE SLOWLY EAST/SOUTHEAST. LOWERED POPS THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WITH CURRENT
VIS SHOWING A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE OVER THAT AREA. STILL EXPECT
A QUICK RAMP-UP OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP BY THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CERTAINLY WAS A WARM AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING...WITH
DEW POINTS ON EITHER SIDE OF 70 DEGREES.

HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACTLY HOW THE AREAS OF CONVECTION WILL
EVOLVE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.  YET...TRIED TO KEEP THE HIGHER POPS...IN
THE LIKELY RANGE...OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR TODAY...THEN LINGERED
THOSE HIGHER POPS A BIT LONGER IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATE
TONIGHT...AS THE MID LEVEL 500 MB TROF AXIS ACTS ON THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE.

EVEN AS DAWN APPROACHES...COULD NOT RULE OUT SHOWERS FORMING THIS
MORNING...PATCHES OF CLOUDS HAVE BEEN FORMING PAST FEW HOURS.
PROBABLY RELATED TO THE INCREASE LOW LEVEL FLOW...COULD NOT
LOCATE/FIND ANY DISTURBANCES.  SO WE STILL KEPT THE FOG AT A MINIMUM
FOR DAWN.  MOSTLY IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM DURING THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY FURTHER
SOUTH...AWAY FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT...OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS TRY TO REACH 35 TO 40 THSD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOWLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.  MID LEVEL WINDS RATHER WEAK.
YET...COULD NOT RULE OUT A PULSE STORM REACHING SEVERE LIMITS...BUT
OVERALL THE THREAT FOR A LOT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR LARGE STILL
APPEARS TO BE RATHER LOW.  OF COURSE THE USUAL LIGHTNING AND
DOWNPOURS STILL DESERVES RESPECT.

HAVE THE FRONT ITSELF REACHING INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY NEAR
MARIETTA AND PARKERSBURG AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING...THEN REACHING OUT
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AROUND BKW ABOUT 09Z THURSDAY.  YET...WINDS AT
MOST LEVELS BEGIN TO VEER BEFORE THE SURFACE FRONT PASSES.

HAVE THUNDER CHANCES DECREASING N/S OVERNIGHT...EVEN THOUGH POPS
REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH IN THE SOUTH DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH WHERE CLOUDS
AND HIGHER POPS EXPECTED SOONER.

HAVE THE NORTH WIND DRIVING SOUTH IN SOUTHEAST OHIO TONIGHT...WITH
SOME CLEARING THERE LATE TONIGHT...AND LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
A BIT ESPECIALLY FROM HOCKING VALLEY NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WHILE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH FORECAST AREA TO START THE SHORT
TERM...POST FRONTAL PRECIP WILL STILL BE LINGERING AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES. WILL BE DRYING OUT FOR FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES. ALL MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY WEAK 500MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS IN NW FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
INCREASED POPS FRIDAY NIGHT ANTICIPATING DECAYING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ON A STRONG WAA AT 850MB. ALSO INCREASED
POPS ON SATURDAY WITH THE ACTUAL UPPER LEVEL RIPPLE.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND WITH LINGERING CLOUDS...EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS ON THURSDAY TO STAY BELOW 80. ADDED A COUPLE DEGREES TO THAT
FOR FRIDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE...AND THEN ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES
SATURDAY AS THE WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY. EXPECTING A COOLER NIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF READINGS IN THE 50S. CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP
FRIDAY NIGHT JUST A TOUCH WARMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TWO DISTINCTIVE SHORT WAVE EVIDENT IN H5 CHARTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...KEEPING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AT
LEAST PARTS OF UP COMING WEEKEND. THE FIRST COMES ALONG THE BACK
SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND THE SECOND ONE IN A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

MODELS QPF FIELDS KEEP SATURDAY RELATIVELY DRY...AND TARGET MORE THE
SYSTEM ON SUNDAY WITH A VORTICITY MAX IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PASSING
OVER AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER OUR CWA. THE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE PCPN.
THEREFORE...INCREASED CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO LIKELIES FOR
SUNDAY...AS EXPECTED CONVECTION MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED A BLEND OF DIFFERENT GUIDANCE...WARMER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY PER DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION...WITH
A COOLER TREND AFTER THE WEEKENDS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO FORM SPOTTY SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. CELLS DID FORM PKB TO CKB VCNTY AROUND
10Z. MAY BE RELATED TO THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW...AFTER 2
DAYS OF DEAD FLOW.

OUTFLOW FROMM OLDER CONVECTION SINKING SOUTH THROUGH OHIO.  INCREASED
POPS SOONER IN SOUTHEAST OHIO THIS MORNING.

STILL TIMING THE FRONT TO REACH THE MID OHIO VALLEY AROUND PKB ABOUT
00Z...THEN EKN TO CRW AROUND 04Z...AND THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AROUND
BKW BEFORE DAWN...AROUND 08Z.

TIMING THE VARIOUS ROUNDS OF CONVECTION TODAY INTO TONIGHT...HAS
CONFIDENCE LEVEL LOWERED TO LOW.  THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME SEPARATE
CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AWAY FROM THE
FRONT...DUE TO THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY.   HAVE THE LIKELY
POPS...MOST COVERAGE...AHEAD OF THE FRONT ITSELF. THOSE LIKELY POPS
REACHING INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AFTER 15Z...AND INTO CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA TOWARD 18Z...THEN HTS TO CRW CORRIDOR 20/21Z...AND BKW
AFTER 00Z.  AGAIN THAT IS FOR THE MOST COVERAGE.

CEILINGS 2 TO 3 THSD FT AND VSBY AOB 3 MILES IN ANY PREFRONTAL
CONVECTION.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...HAVE SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES AT 06Z THURSDAY...WITH WAVE ACTION ALONG THE
FRONT.  SO HOLDING LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT TRANSITIONING
TO MOSTLY SHOWERS...RATHER THAN THUNDERSTORMS.

CEILINGS LOWERING 1 TO 2 THSD FT AND VSBY AROUND 3 MILES IN POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS.  CEILINGS OVER HIGH MOUNTAINS LIKELY TO DROP BELOW
1 THSD FT AND VSBY BLO 3 MILES.

MEANWHILE...DRIER AIR MOVING SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND TOWARD
PKB.  SO HAVE CEILINGS STARTING TO IMPROVE/LIFT FROM THE NORTH TOWARD
06Z THURSDAY...THEN CONTINUING TO IMPROVE IN THE MID OHIO VALLEY 06Z
TO 12Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE VARIOUS CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL LIKELY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN LINGERING WAVE ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
PKB ASOS IS NOT SENDING A COMPLETE OBSERVATION. NWS TECHS ARE
WORKING ON THE PROBLEM.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/50
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JS

EQUIPMENT...KTB








000
FXUS61 KRLX 231620
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1220 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH...INCREASING SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER FRONT EARLY THURSDAY.
DRIER AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY. BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO POPS AND SKY TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND
TRENDS. INCREASED POPS/SKY JUST A BIT MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE I79
CORRIDOR AS A COUPLE OF THIN PREFRONTAL BANDS OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER MOVE SLOWLY EAST/SOUTHEAST. LOWERED POPS THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WITH CURRENT
VIS SHOWING A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE OVER THAT AREA. STILL EXPECT
A QUICK RAMP-UP OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP BY THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CERTAINLY WAS A WARM AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING...WITH
DEW POINTS ON EITHER SIDE OF 70 DEGREES.

HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACTLY HOW THE AREAS OF CONVECTION WILL
EVOLVE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.  YET...TRIED TO KEEP THE HIGHER POPS...IN
THE LIKELY RANGE...OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR TODAY...THEN LINGERED
THOSE HIGHER POPS A BIT LONGER IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATE
TONIGHT...AS THE MID LEVEL 500 MB TROF AXIS ACTS ON THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE.

EVEN AS DAWN APPROACHES...COULD NOT RULE OUT SHOWERS FORMING THIS
MORNING...PATCHES OF CLOUDS HAVE BEEN FORMING PAST FEW HOURS.
PROBABLY RELATED TO THE INCREASE LOW LEVEL FLOW...COULD NOT
LOCATE/FIND ANY DISTURBANCES.  SO WE STILL KEPT THE FOG AT A MINIMUM
FOR DAWN.  MOSTLY IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM DURING THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY FURTHER
SOUTH...AWAY FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT...OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS TRY TO REACH 35 TO 40 THSD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOWLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.  MID LEVEL WINDS RATHER WEAK.
YET...COULD NOT RULE OUT A PULSE STORM REACHING SEVERE LIMITS...BUT
OVERALL THE THREAT FOR A LOT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR LARGE STILL
APPEARS TO BE RATHER LOW.  OF COURSE THE USUAL LIGHTNING AND
DOWNPOURS STILL DESERVES RESPECT.

HAVE THE FRONT ITSELF REACHING INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY NEAR
MARIETTA AND PARKERSBURG AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING...THEN REACHING OUT
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AROUND BKW ABOUT 09Z THURSDAY.  YET...WINDS AT
MOST LEVELS BEGIN TO VEER BEFORE THE SURFACE FRONT PASSES.

HAVE THUNDER CHANCES DECREASING N/S OVERNIGHT...EVEN THOUGH POPS
REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH IN THE SOUTH DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH WHERE CLOUDS
AND HIGHER POPS EXPECTED SOONER.

HAVE THE NORTH WIND DRIVING SOUTH IN SOUTHEAST OHIO TONIGHT...WITH
SOME CLEARING THERE LATE TONIGHT...AND LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
A BIT ESPECIALLY FROM HOCKING VALLEY NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WHILE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH FORECAST AREA TO START THE SHORT
TERM...POST FRONTAL PRECIP WILL STILL BE LINGERING AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES. WILL BE DRYING OUT FOR FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES. ALL MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY WEAK 500MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS IN NW FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
INCREASED POPS FRIDAY NIGHT ANTICIPATING DECAYING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ON A STRONG WAA AT 850MB. ALSO INCREASED
POPS ON SATURDAY WITH THE ACTUAL UPPER LEVEL RIPPLE.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND WITH LINGERING CLOUDS...EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS ON THURSDAY TO STAY BELOW 80. ADDED A COUPLE DEGREES TO THAT
FOR FRIDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE...AND THEN ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES
SATURDAY AS THE WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY. EXPECTING A COOLER NIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF READINGS IN THE 50S. CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP
FRIDAY NIGHT JUST A TOUCH WARMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TWO DISTINCTIVE SHORT WAVE EVIDENT IN H5 CHARTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...KEEPING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AT
LEAST PARTS OF UP COMING WEEKEND. THE FIRST COMES ALONG THE BACK
SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND THE SECOND ONE IN A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

MODELS QPF FIELDS KEEP SATURDAY RELATIVELY DRY...AND TARGET MORE THE
SYSTEM ON SUNDAY WITH A VORTICITY MAX IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PASSING
OVER AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER OUR CWA. THE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE PCPN.
THEREFORE...INCREASED CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO LIKELIES FOR
SUNDAY...AS EXPECTED CONVECTION MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED A BLEND OF DIFFERENT GUIDANCE...WARMER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY PER DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION...WITH
A COOLER TREND AFTER THE WEEKENDS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO FORM SPOTTY SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. CELLS DID FORM PKB TO CKB VCNTY AROUND
10Z. MAY BE RELATED TO THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW...AFTER 2
DAYS OF DEAD FLOW.

OUTFLOW FROMM OLDER CONVECTION SINKING SOUTH THROUGH OHIO.  INCREASED
POPS SOONER IN SOUTHEAST OHIO THIS MORNING.

STILL TIMING THE FRONT TO REACH THE MID OHIO VALLEY AROUND PKB ABOUT
00Z...THEN EKN TO CRW AROUND 04Z...AND THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AROUND
BKW BEFORE DAWN...AROUND 08Z.

TIMING THE VARIOUS ROUNDS OF CONVECTION TODAY INTO TONIGHT...HAS
CONFIDENCE LEVEL LOWERED TO LOW.  THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME SEPARATE
CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AWAY FROM THE
FRONT...DUE TO THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY.   HAVE THE LIKELY
POPS...MOST COVERAGE...AHEAD OF THE FRONT ITSELF. THOSE LIKELY POPS
REACHING INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AFTER 15Z...AND INTO CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA TOWARD 18Z...THEN HTS TO CRW CORRIDOR 20/21Z...AND BKW
AFTER 00Z.  AGAIN THAT IS FOR THE MOST COVERAGE.

CEILINGS 2 TO 3 THSD FT AND VSBY AOB 3 MILES IN ANY PREFRONTAL
CONVECTION.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...HAVE SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES AT 06Z THURSDAY...WITH WAVE ACTION ALONG THE
FRONT.  SO HOLDING LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT TRANSITIONING
TO MOSTLY SHOWERS...RATHER THAN THUNDERSTORMS.

CEILINGS LOWERING 1 TO 2 THSD FT AND VSBY AROUND 3 MILES IN POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS.  CEILINGS OVER HIGH MOUNTAINS LIKELY TO DROP BELOW
1 THSD FT AND VSBY BLO 3 MILES.

MEANWHILE...DRIER AIR MOVING SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND TOWARD
PKB.  SO HAVE CEILINGS STARTING TO IMPROVE/LIFT FROM THE NORTH TOWARD
06Z THURSDAY...THEN CONTINUING TO IMPROVE IN THE MID OHIO VALLEY 06Z
TO 12Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE VARIOUS CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL LIKELY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN LINGERING WAVE ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
PKB ASOS IS NOT SENDING A COMPLETE OBSERVATION. NWS TECHS ARE
WORKING ON THE PROBLEM.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/50
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JS

EQUIPMENT...KTB








000
FXUS61 KRLX 231620
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1220 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH...INCREASING SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER FRONT EARLY THURSDAY.
DRIER AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY. BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO POPS AND SKY TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND
TRENDS. INCREASED POPS/SKY JUST A BIT MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE I79
CORRIDOR AS A COUPLE OF THIN PREFRONTAL BANDS OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER MOVE SLOWLY EAST/SOUTHEAST. LOWERED POPS THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WITH CURRENT
VIS SHOWING A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE OVER THAT AREA. STILL EXPECT
A QUICK RAMP-UP OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP BY THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CERTAINLY WAS A WARM AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING...WITH
DEW POINTS ON EITHER SIDE OF 70 DEGREES.

HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACTLY HOW THE AREAS OF CONVECTION WILL
EVOLVE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.  YET...TRIED TO KEEP THE HIGHER POPS...IN
THE LIKELY RANGE...OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR TODAY...THEN LINGERED
THOSE HIGHER POPS A BIT LONGER IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATE
TONIGHT...AS THE MID LEVEL 500 MB TROF AXIS ACTS ON THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE.

EVEN AS DAWN APPROACHES...COULD NOT RULE OUT SHOWERS FORMING THIS
MORNING...PATCHES OF CLOUDS HAVE BEEN FORMING PAST FEW HOURS.
PROBABLY RELATED TO THE INCREASE LOW LEVEL FLOW...COULD NOT
LOCATE/FIND ANY DISTURBANCES.  SO WE STILL KEPT THE FOG AT A MINIMUM
FOR DAWN.  MOSTLY IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM DURING THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY FURTHER
SOUTH...AWAY FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT...OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS TRY TO REACH 35 TO 40 THSD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOWLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.  MID LEVEL WINDS RATHER WEAK.
YET...COULD NOT RULE OUT A PULSE STORM REACHING SEVERE LIMITS...BUT
OVERALL THE THREAT FOR A LOT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR LARGE STILL
APPEARS TO BE RATHER LOW.  OF COURSE THE USUAL LIGHTNING AND
DOWNPOURS STILL DESERVES RESPECT.

HAVE THE FRONT ITSELF REACHING INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY NEAR
MARIETTA AND PARKERSBURG AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING...THEN REACHING OUT
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AROUND BKW ABOUT 09Z THURSDAY.  YET...WINDS AT
MOST LEVELS BEGIN TO VEER BEFORE THE SURFACE FRONT PASSES.

HAVE THUNDER CHANCES DECREASING N/S OVERNIGHT...EVEN THOUGH POPS
REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH IN THE SOUTH DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH WHERE CLOUDS
AND HIGHER POPS EXPECTED SOONER.

HAVE THE NORTH WIND DRIVING SOUTH IN SOUTHEAST OHIO TONIGHT...WITH
SOME CLEARING THERE LATE TONIGHT...AND LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
A BIT ESPECIALLY FROM HOCKING VALLEY NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WHILE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH FORECAST AREA TO START THE SHORT
TERM...POST FRONTAL PRECIP WILL STILL BE LINGERING AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES. WILL BE DRYING OUT FOR FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES. ALL MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY WEAK 500MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS IN NW FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
INCREASED POPS FRIDAY NIGHT ANTICIPATING DECAYING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ON A STRONG WAA AT 850MB. ALSO INCREASED
POPS ON SATURDAY WITH THE ACTUAL UPPER LEVEL RIPPLE.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND WITH LINGERING CLOUDS...EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS ON THURSDAY TO STAY BELOW 80. ADDED A COUPLE DEGREES TO THAT
FOR FRIDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE...AND THEN ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES
SATURDAY AS THE WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY. EXPECTING A COOLER NIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF READINGS IN THE 50S. CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP
FRIDAY NIGHT JUST A TOUCH WARMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TWO DISTINCTIVE SHORT WAVE EVIDENT IN H5 CHARTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...KEEPING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AT
LEAST PARTS OF UP COMING WEEKEND. THE FIRST COMES ALONG THE BACK
SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND THE SECOND ONE IN A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

MODELS QPF FIELDS KEEP SATURDAY RELATIVELY DRY...AND TARGET MORE THE
SYSTEM ON SUNDAY WITH A VORTICITY MAX IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PASSING
OVER AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER OUR CWA. THE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE PCPN.
THEREFORE...INCREASED CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO LIKELIES FOR
SUNDAY...AS EXPECTED CONVECTION MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED A BLEND OF DIFFERENT GUIDANCE...WARMER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY PER DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION...WITH
A COOLER TREND AFTER THE WEEKENDS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO FORM SPOTTY SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. CELLS DID FORM PKB TO CKB VCNTY AROUND
10Z. MAY BE RELATED TO THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW...AFTER 2
DAYS OF DEAD FLOW.

OUTFLOW FROMM OLDER CONVECTION SINKING SOUTH THROUGH OHIO.  INCREASED
POPS SOONER IN SOUTHEAST OHIO THIS MORNING.

STILL TIMING THE FRONT TO REACH THE MID OHIO VALLEY AROUND PKB ABOUT
00Z...THEN EKN TO CRW AROUND 04Z...AND THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AROUND
BKW BEFORE DAWN...AROUND 08Z.

TIMING THE VARIOUS ROUNDS OF CONVECTION TODAY INTO TONIGHT...HAS
CONFIDENCE LEVEL LOWERED TO LOW.  THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME SEPARATE
CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AWAY FROM THE
FRONT...DUE TO THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY.   HAVE THE LIKELY
POPS...MOST COVERAGE...AHEAD OF THE FRONT ITSELF. THOSE LIKELY POPS
REACHING INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AFTER 15Z...AND INTO CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA TOWARD 18Z...THEN HTS TO CRW CORRIDOR 20/21Z...AND BKW
AFTER 00Z.  AGAIN THAT IS FOR THE MOST COVERAGE.

CEILINGS 2 TO 3 THSD FT AND VSBY AOB 3 MILES IN ANY PREFRONTAL
CONVECTION.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...HAVE SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES AT 06Z THURSDAY...WITH WAVE ACTION ALONG THE
FRONT.  SO HOLDING LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT TRANSITIONING
TO MOSTLY SHOWERS...RATHER THAN THUNDERSTORMS.

CEILINGS LOWERING 1 TO 2 THSD FT AND VSBY AROUND 3 MILES IN POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS.  CEILINGS OVER HIGH MOUNTAINS LIKELY TO DROP BELOW
1 THSD FT AND VSBY BLO 3 MILES.

MEANWHILE...DRIER AIR MOVING SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND TOWARD
PKB.  SO HAVE CEILINGS STARTING TO IMPROVE/LIFT FROM THE NORTH TOWARD
06Z THURSDAY...THEN CONTINUING TO IMPROVE IN THE MID OHIO VALLEY 06Z
TO 12Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE VARIOUS CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL LIKELY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN LINGERING WAVE ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
PKB ASOS IS NOT SENDING A COMPLETE OBSERVATION. NWS TECHS ARE
WORKING ON THE PROBLEM.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/50
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JS

EQUIPMENT...KTB








000
FXUS61 KRLX 231448
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1048 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH TODAY...INCREASING SHOWERS AND STORMS. FRONT
PASSES TONIGHT...WITH WAVE ALONG FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY. DRIER AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY. BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO POPS AND SKY TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND
TRENDS. INCREASED POPS/SKY JUST A BIT MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE I79
CORRIDOR AS A COUPLE OF THIN PREFRONTAL BANDS OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER MOVE SLOWLY EAST/SOUTHEAST. LOWERED POPS THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WITH CURRENT
VIS SHOWING A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE OVER THAT AREA. STILL EXPECT
A QUICK RAMP-UP OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP BY THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CERTAINLY WAS A WARM AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING...WITH
DEW POINTS ON EITHER SIDE OF 70 DEGREES.

HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACTLY HOW THE AREAS OF CONVECTION WILL
EVOLVE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.  YET...TRIED TO KEEP THE HIGHER POPS...IN
THE LIKELY RANGE...OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR TODAY...THEN LINGERED
THOSE HIGHER POPS A BIT LONGER IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATE
TONIGHT...AS THE MID LEVEL 500 MB TROF AXIS ACTS ON THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE.

EVEN AS DAWN APPROACHES...COULD NOT RULE OUT SHOWERS FORMING THIS
MORNING...PATCHES OF CLOUDS HAVE BEEN FORMING PAST FEW HOURS.
PROBABLY RELATED TO THE INCREASE LOW LEVEL FLOW...COULD NOT
LOCATE/FIND ANY DISTURBANCES.  SO WE STILL KEPT THE FOG AT A MINIMUM
FOR DAWN.  MOSTLY IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM DURING THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY FURTHER
SOUTH...AWAY FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT...OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS TRY TO REACH 35 TO 40 THSD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOWLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.  MID LEVEL WINDS RATHER WEAK.
YET...COULD NOT RULE OUT A PULSE STORM REACHING SEVERE LIMITS...BUT
OVERALL THE THREAT FOR A LOT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR LARGE STILL
APPEARS TO BE RATHER LOW.  OF COURSE THE USUAL LIGHTNING AND
DOWNPOURS STILL DESERVES RESPECT.

HAVE THE FRONT ITSELF REACHING INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY NEAR
MARIETTA AND PARKERSBURG AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING...THEN REACHING OUT
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AROUND BKW ABOUT 09Z THURSDAY.  YET...WINDS AT
MOST LEVELS BEGIN TO VEER BEFORE THE SURFACE FRONT PASSES.

HAVE THUNDER CHANCES DECREASING N/S OVERNIGHT...EVEN THOUGH POPS
REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH IN THE SOUTH DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH WHERE CLOUDS
AND HIGHER POPS EXPECTED SOONER.

HAVE THE NORTH WIND DRIVING SOUTH IN SOUTHEAST OHIO TONIGHT...WITH
SOME CLEARING THERE LATE TONIGHT...AND LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
A BIT ESPECIALLY FROM HOCKING VALLEY NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WHILE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH FORECAST AREA TO START THE SHORT
TERM...POST FRONTAL PRECIP WILL STILL BE LINGERING AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES. WILL BE DRYING OUT FOR FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES. ALL MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY WEAK 500MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS IN NW FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
INCREASED POPS FRIDAY NIGHT ANTICIPATING DECAYING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ON A STRONG WAA AT 850MB. ALSO INCREASED
POPS ON SATURDAY WITH THE ACTUAL UPPER LEVEL RIPPLE.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND WITH LINGERING CLOUDS...EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS ON THURSDAY TO STAY BELOW 80. ADDED A COUPLE DEGREES TO THAT
FOR FRIDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE...AND THEN ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES
SATURDAY AS THE WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY. EXPECTING A COOLER NIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF READINGS IN THE 50S. CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP
FRIDAY NIGHT JUST A TOUCH WARMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE WEATHER ELEMENTS WITH A FEW
MINOR TWEAKS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ALTHOUGH NORTHWEST FLOW AT H5 WEAKENS SOME 5H...A SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED BY MODELS TO SLIDE ACROSS OUR AREA LATER SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE COULD BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS OR STORMS
BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

A LARGE OCCLUDING SYSTEM MEANDERS SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY...AS CUT-
OFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN PLAYING OUT THIS SCENARIO LATE IN THE
PERIOD FOR A GENERAL UPSWING IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY EARLY
MONDAY.

WEAK AND FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY
WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO FORM SPOTTY SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. CELLS DID FORM PKB TO CKB VCNTY AROUND
10Z. MAY BE RELATED TO THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW...AFTER 2
DAYS OF DEAD FLOW.

OUTFLOW FROMM OLDER CONVECTION SINKING SOUTH THROUGH OHIO.  INCREASED
POPS SOONER IN SOUTHEAST OHIO THIS MORNING.

STILL TIMING THE FRONT TO REACH THE MID OHIO VALLEY AROUND PKB ABOUT
00Z...THEN EKN TO CRW AROUND 04Z...AND THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AROUND
BKW BEFORE DAWN...AROUND 08Z.

TIMING THE VARIOUS ROUNDS OF CONVECTION TODAY INTO TONIGHT...HAS
CONFIDENCE LEVEL LOWERED TO LOW.  THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME SEPARATE
CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AWAY FROM THE
FRONT...DUE TO THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY.   HAVE THE LIKELY
POPS...MOST COVERAGE...AHEAD OF THE FRONT ITSELF. THOSE LIKELY POPS
REACHING INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AFTER 15Z...AND INTO CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA TOWARD 18Z...THEN HTS TO CRW CORRIDOR 20/21Z...AND BKW
AFTER 00Z.  AGAIN THAT IS FOR THE MOST COVERAGE.

CEILINGS 2 TO 3 THSD FT AND VSBY AOB 3 MILES IN ANY PREFRONTAL
CONVECTION.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...HAVE SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES AT 06Z THURSDAY...WITH WAVE ACTION ALONG THE
FRONT.  SO HOLDING LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT TRANSITIONING
TO MOSTLY SHOWERS...RATHER THAN THUNDERSTORMS.

CEILINGS LOWERING 1 TO 2 THSD FT AND VSBY AROUND 3 MILES IN POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS.  CEILINGS OVER HIGH MOUNTAINS LIKELY TO DROP BELOW
1 THSD FT AND VSBY BLO 3 MILES.

MEANWHILE...DRIER AIR MOVING SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND TOWARD
PKB.  SO HAVE CEILINGS STARTING TO IMPROVE/LIFT FROM THE NORTH TOWARD
06Z THURSDAY...THEN CONTINUING TO IMPROVE IN THE MID OHIO VALLEY 06Z
TO 12Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE VARIOUS CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL LIKELY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN LINGERING WAVE ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
PKB ASOS IS NOT SENDING A COMPLETE OBSERVATION. NWS TECHS ARE
WORKING ON THE PROBLEM.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/50
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JS

EQUIPMENT...KTB







000
FXUS61 KRLX 231448
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1048 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH TODAY...INCREASING SHOWERS AND STORMS. FRONT
PASSES TONIGHT...WITH WAVE ALONG FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY. DRIER AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY. BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO POPS AND SKY TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND
TRENDS. INCREASED POPS/SKY JUST A BIT MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE I79
CORRIDOR AS A COUPLE OF THIN PREFRONTAL BANDS OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER MOVE SLOWLY EAST/SOUTHEAST. LOWERED POPS THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WITH CURRENT
VIS SHOWING A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE OVER THAT AREA. STILL EXPECT
A QUICK RAMP-UP OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP BY THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CERTAINLY WAS A WARM AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING...WITH
DEW POINTS ON EITHER SIDE OF 70 DEGREES.

HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACTLY HOW THE AREAS OF CONVECTION WILL
EVOLVE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.  YET...TRIED TO KEEP THE HIGHER POPS...IN
THE LIKELY RANGE...OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR TODAY...THEN LINGERED
THOSE HIGHER POPS A BIT LONGER IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATE
TONIGHT...AS THE MID LEVEL 500 MB TROF AXIS ACTS ON THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE.

EVEN AS DAWN APPROACHES...COULD NOT RULE OUT SHOWERS FORMING THIS
MORNING...PATCHES OF CLOUDS HAVE BEEN FORMING PAST FEW HOURS.
PROBABLY RELATED TO THE INCREASE LOW LEVEL FLOW...COULD NOT
LOCATE/FIND ANY DISTURBANCES.  SO WE STILL KEPT THE FOG AT A MINIMUM
FOR DAWN.  MOSTLY IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM DURING THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY FURTHER
SOUTH...AWAY FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT...OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS TRY TO REACH 35 TO 40 THSD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOWLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.  MID LEVEL WINDS RATHER WEAK.
YET...COULD NOT RULE OUT A PULSE STORM REACHING SEVERE LIMITS...BUT
OVERALL THE THREAT FOR A LOT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR LARGE STILL
APPEARS TO BE RATHER LOW.  OF COURSE THE USUAL LIGHTNING AND
DOWNPOURS STILL DESERVES RESPECT.

HAVE THE FRONT ITSELF REACHING INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY NEAR
MARIETTA AND PARKERSBURG AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING...THEN REACHING OUT
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AROUND BKW ABOUT 09Z THURSDAY.  YET...WINDS AT
MOST LEVELS BEGIN TO VEER BEFORE THE SURFACE FRONT PASSES.

HAVE THUNDER CHANCES DECREASING N/S OVERNIGHT...EVEN THOUGH POPS
REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH IN THE SOUTH DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH WHERE CLOUDS
AND HIGHER POPS EXPECTED SOONER.

HAVE THE NORTH WIND DRIVING SOUTH IN SOUTHEAST OHIO TONIGHT...WITH
SOME CLEARING THERE LATE TONIGHT...AND LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
A BIT ESPECIALLY FROM HOCKING VALLEY NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WHILE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH FORECAST AREA TO START THE SHORT
TERM...POST FRONTAL PRECIP WILL STILL BE LINGERING AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES. WILL BE DRYING OUT FOR FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES. ALL MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY WEAK 500MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS IN NW FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
INCREASED POPS FRIDAY NIGHT ANTICIPATING DECAYING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ON A STRONG WAA AT 850MB. ALSO INCREASED
POPS ON SATURDAY WITH THE ACTUAL UPPER LEVEL RIPPLE.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND WITH LINGERING CLOUDS...EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS ON THURSDAY TO STAY BELOW 80. ADDED A COUPLE DEGREES TO THAT
FOR FRIDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE...AND THEN ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES
SATURDAY AS THE WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY. EXPECTING A COOLER NIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF READINGS IN THE 50S. CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP
FRIDAY NIGHT JUST A TOUCH WARMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE WEATHER ELEMENTS WITH A FEW
MINOR TWEAKS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ALTHOUGH NORTHWEST FLOW AT H5 WEAKENS SOME 5H...A SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED BY MODELS TO SLIDE ACROSS OUR AREA LATER SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE COULD BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS OR STORMS
BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

A LARGE OCCLUDING SYSTEM MEANDERS SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY...AS CUT-
OFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN PLAYING OUT THIS SCENARIO LATE IN THE
PERIOD FOR A GENERAL UPSWING IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY EARLY
MONDAY.

WEAK AND FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY
WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO FORM SPOTTY SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. CELLS DID FORM PKB TO CKB VCNTY AROUND
10Z. MAY BE RELATED TO THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW...AFTER 2
DAYS OF DEAD FLOW.

OUTFLOW FROMM OLDER CONVECTION SINKING SOUTH THROUGH OHIO.  INCREASED
POPS SOONER IN SOUTHEAST OHIO THIS MORNING.

STILL TIMING THE FRONT TO REACH THE MID OHIO VALLEY AROUND PKB ABOUT
00Z...THEN EKN TO CRW AROUND 04Z...AND THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AROUND
BKW BEFORE DAWN...AROUND 08Z.

TIMING THE VARIOUS ROUNDS OF CONVECTION TODAY INTO TONIGHT...HAS
CONFIDENCE LEVEL LOWERED TO LOW.  THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME SEPARATE
CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AWAY FROM THE
FRONT...DUE TO THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY.   HAVE THE LIKELY
POPS...MOST COVERAGE...AHEAD OF THE FRONT ITSELF. THOSE LIKELY POPS
REACHING INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AFTER 15Z...AND INTO CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA TOWARD 18Z...THEN HTS TO CRW CORRIDOR 20/21Z...AND BKW
AFTER 00Z.  AGAIN THAT IS FOR THE MOST COVERAGE.

CEILINGS 2 TO 3 THSD FT AND VSBY AOB 3 MILES IN ANY PREFRONTAL
CONVECTION.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...HAVE SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES AT 06Z THURSDAY...WITH WAVE ACTION ALONG THE
FRONT.  SO HOLDING LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT TRANSITIONING
TO MOSTLY SHOWERS...RATHER THAN THUNDERSTORMS.

CEILINGS LOWERING 1 TO 2 THSD FT AND VSBY AROUND 3 MILES IN POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS.  CEILINGS OVER HIGH MOUNTAINS LIKELY TO DROP BELOW
1 THSD FT AND VSBY BLO 3 MILES.

MEANWHILE...DRIER AIR MOVING SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND TOWARD
PKB.  SO HAVE CEILINGS STARTING TO IMPROVE/LIFT FROM THE NORTH TOWARD
06Z THURSDAY...THEN CONTINUING TO IMPROVE IN THE MID OHIO VALLEY 06Z
TO 12Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE VARIOUS CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL LIKELY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN LINGERING WAVE ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
PKB ASOS IS NOT SENDING A COMPLETE OBSERVATION. NWS TECHS ARE
WORKING ON THE PROBLEM.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/50
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JS

EQUIPMENT...KTB








000
FXUS61 KRLX 231031
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
627 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH TODAY...INCREASING SHOWERS AND STORMS. FRONT
PASSES TONIGHT...WITH WAVE ALONG FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY. DRIER AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY. BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CERTAINLY WAS A WARM AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING...WITH
DEW POINTS ON EITHER SIDE OF 70 DEGREES.

HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACTLY HOW THE AREAS OF CONVECTION WILL
EVOLVE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.  YET...TRIED TO KEEP THE HIGHER POPS...IN
THE LIKELY RANGE...OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR TODAY...THEN LINGERED
THOSE HIGHER POPS A BIT LONGER IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATE
TONIGHT...AS THE MID LEVEL 500 MB TROF AXIS ACTS ON THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE.

EVEN AS DAWN APPROACHES...COULD NOT RULE OUT SHOWERS FORMING THIS
MORNING...PATCHES OF CLOUDS HAVE BEEN FORMING PAST FEW HOURS.
PROBABLY RELATED TO THE INCREASE LOW LEVEL FLOW...COULD NOT
LOCATE/FIND ANY DISTURBANCES.  SO WE STILL KEPT THE FOG AT A MINIMUM
FOR DAWN.  MOSTLY IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM DURING THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY FURTHER
SOUTH...AWAY FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT...OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS TRY TO REACH 35 TO 40 THSD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOWLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.  MID LEVEL WINDS RATHER WEAK.
YET...COULD NOT RULE OUT A PULSE STORM REACHING SEVERE LIMITS...BUT
OVERALL THE THREAT FOR A LOT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR LARGE STILL
APPEARS TO BE RATHER LOW.  OF COURSE THE USUAL LIGHTNING AND
DOWNPOURS STILL DESERVES RESPECT.

HAVE THE FRONT ITSELF REACHING INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY NEAR
MARIETTA AND PARKERSBURG AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING...THEN REACHING OUT
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AROUND BKW ABOUT 09Z THURSDAY.  YET...WINDS AT
MOST LEVELS BEGIN TO VEER BEFORE THE SURFACE FRONT PASSES.

HAVE THUNDER CHANCES DECREASING N/S OVERNIGHT...EVEN THOUGH POPS
REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH IN THE SOUTH DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH WHERE CLOUDS
AND HIGHER POPS EXPECTED SOONER.

HAVE THE NORTH WIND DRIVING SOUTH IN SOUTHEAST OHIO TONIGHT...WITH
SOME CLEARING THERE LATE TONIGHT...AND LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
A BIT ESPECIALLY FROM HOCKING VALLEY NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WHILE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH FORECAST AREA TO START THE SHORT
TERM...POST FRONTAL PRECIP WILL STILL BE LINGERING AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES. WILL BE DRYING OUT FOR FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES. ALL MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY WEAK 500MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS IN NW FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
INCREASED POPS FRIDAY NIGHT ANTICIPATING DECAYING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ON A STRONG WAA AT 850MB. ALSO INCREASED
POPS ON SATURDAY WITH THE ACTUAL UPPER LEVEL RIPPLE.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND WITH LINGERING CLOUDS...EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS ON THURSDAY TO STAY BELOW 80. ADDED A COUPLE DEGREES TO THAT
FOR FRIDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE...AND THEN ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES
SATURDAY AS THE WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY. EXPECTING A COOLER NIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF READINGS IN THE 50S. CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP
FRIDAY NIGHT JUST A TOUCH WARMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE WEATHER ELEMENTS WITH A FEW
MINOR TWEAKS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ALTHOUGH NORTHWEST FLOW AT H5 WEAKENS SOME 5H...A SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED BY MODELS TO SLIDE ACROSS OUR AREA LATER SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE COULD BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS OR STORMS
BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

A LARGE OCCLUDING SYSTEM MEANDERS SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY...AS CUT-
OFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN PLAYING OUT THIS SCENARIO LATE IN THE
PERIOD FOR A GENERAL UPSWING IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY EARLY
MONDAY.

WEAK AND FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY
WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO FORM SPOTTY SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING.  CELLS DID FORM PKB TO CKB VCNTY AROUND
10Z.  MAY BE RELATED TO THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW...AFTER 2 DAYS
OF DEAD FLOW.

OUTFLOW FROMM OLDER CONVECTION SINKING SOUTH THROUGH OHIO.  INCREASED
POPS SOONER IN SOUTHEAST OHIO THIS MORNING.

STILL TIMING THE FRONT TO REACH THE MID OHIO VALLEY AROUND PKB ABOUT
00Z...THEN EKN TO CRW AROUND 04Z...AND THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AROUND
BKW BEFORE DAWN...AROUND 08Z.

TIMING THE VARIOUS ROUNDS OF CONVECTION TODAY INTO TONIGHT...HAS
CONFIDENCE LEVEL LOWERED TO LOW.  THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME SEPARATE
CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AWAY FROM THE
FRONT...DUE TO THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY.   HAVE THE LIKELY
POPS...MOST COVERAGE...AHEAD OF THE FRONT ITSELF. THOSE LIKELY POPS
REACHING INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AFTER 15Z...AND INTO CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA TOWARD 18Z...THEN HTS TO CRW CORRIDOR 20/21Z...AND BKW
AFTER 00Z.  AGAIN THAT IS FOR THE MOST COVERAGE.

CEILINGS 2 TO 3 THSD FT AND VSBY AOB 3 MILES IN ANY PREFRONTAL
CONVECTION.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...HAVE SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES AT 06Z THURSDAY...WITH WAVE ACTION ALONG THE
FRONT.  SO HOLDING LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT TRANSITIONING
TO MOSTLY SHOWERS...RATHER THAN THUNDERSTORMS.

CEILINGS LOWERING 1 TO 2 THSD FT AND VSBY AROUND 3 MILES IN POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS.  CEILINGS OVER HIGH MOUNTAINS LIKELY TO DROP BELOW
1 THSD FT AND VSBY BLO 3 MILES.

MEANWHILE...DRIER AIR MOVING SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND TOWARD
PKB.  SO HAVE CEILINGS STARTING TO IMPROVE/LIFT FROM THE NORTH TOWARD
06Z THURSDAY...THEN CONTINUING TO IMPROVE IN THE MID OHIO VALLEY 06Z
TO 12Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE VARIOUS CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL LIKELY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    H    H    M    H    H    H    M    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN LINGERING WAVE ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
PKB ASOS IS NOT SENDING A COMPLETE OBSERVATION. NWS TECHS ARE
WORKING ON THE PROBLEM.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JS

EQUIPMENT...KTB









000
FXUS61 KRLX 231031
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
627 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH TODAY...INCREASING SHOWERS AND STORMS. FRONT
PASSES TONIGHT...WITH WAVE ALONG FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY. DRIER AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY. BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CERTAINLY WAS A WARM AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING...WITH
DEW POINTS ON EITHER SIDE OF 70 DEGREES.

HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACTLY HOW THE AREAS OF CONVECTION WILL
EVOLVE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.  YET...TRIED TO KEEP THE HIGHER POPS...IN
THE LIKELY RANGE...OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR TODAY...THEN LINGERED
THOSE HIGHER POPS A BIT LONGER IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATE
TONIGHT...AS THE MID LEVEL 500 MB TROF AXIS ACTS ON THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE.

EVEN AS DAWN APPROACHES...COULD NOT RULE OUT SHOWERS FORMING THIS
MORNING...PATCHES OF CLOUDS HAVE BEEN FORMING PAST FEW HOURS.
PROBABLY RELATED TO THE INCREASE LOW LEVEL FLOW...COULD NOT
LOCATE/FIND ANY DISTURBANCES.  SO WE STILL KEPT THE FOG AT A MINIMUM
FOR DAWN.  MOSTLY IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM DURING THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY FURTHER
SOUTH...AWAY FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT...OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS TRY TO REACH 35 TO 40 THSD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOWLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.  MID LEVEL WINDS RATHER WEAK.
YET...COULD NOT RULE OUT A PULSE STORM REACHING SEVERE LIMITS...BUT
OVERALL THE THREAT FOR A LOT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR LARGE STILL
APPEARS TO BE RATHER LOW.  OF COURSE THE USUAL LIGHTNING AND
DOWNPOURS STILL DESERVES RESPECT.

HAVE THE FRONT ITSELF REACHING INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY NEAR
MARIETTA AND PARKERSBURG AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING...THEN REACHING OUT
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AROUND BKW ABOUT 09Z THURSDAY.  YET...WINDS AT
MOST LEVELS BEGIN TO VEER BEFORE THE SURFACE FRONT PASSES.

HAVE THUNDER CHANCES DECREASING N/S OVERNIGHT...EVEN THOUGH POPS
REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH IN THE SOUTH DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH WHERE CLOUDS
AND HIGHER POPS EXPECTED SOONER.

HAVE THE NORTH WIND DRIVING SOUTH IN SOUTHEAST OHIO TONIGHT...WITH
SOME CLEARING THERE LATE TONIGHT...AND LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
A BIT ESPECIALLY FROM HOCKING VALLEY NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WHILE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH FORECAST AREA TO START THE SHORT
TERM...POST FRONTAL PRECIP WILL STILL BE LINGERING AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES. WILL BE DRYING OUT FOR FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES. ALL MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY WEAK 500MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS IN NW FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
INCREASED POPS FRIDAY NIGHT ANTICIPATING DECAYING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ON A STRONG WAA AT 850MB. ALSO INCREASED
POPS ON SATURDAY WITH THE ACTUAL UPPER LEVEL RIPPLE.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND WITH LINGERING CLOUDS...EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS ON THURSDAY TO STAY BELOW 80. ADDED A COUPLE DEGREES TO THAT
FOR FRIDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE...AND THEN ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES
SATURDAY AS THE WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY. EXPECTING A COOLER NIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF READINGS IN THE 50S. CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP
FRIDAY NIGHT JUST A TOUCH WARMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE WEATHER ELEMENTS WITH A FEW
MINOR TWEAKS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ALTHOUGH NORTHWEST FLOW AT H5 WEAKENS SOME 5H...A SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED BY MODELS TO SLIDE ACROSS OUR AREA LATER SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE COULD BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS OR STORMS
BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

A LARGE OCCLUDING SYSTEM MEANDERS SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY...AS CUT-
OFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN PLAYING OUT THIS SCENARIO LATE IN THE
PERIOD FOR A GENERAL UPSWING IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY EARLY
MONDAY.

WEAK AND FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY
WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO FORM SPOTTY SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING.  CELLS DID FORM PKB TO CKB VCNTY AROUND
10Z.  MAY BE RELATED TO THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW...AFTER 2 DAYS
OF DEAD FLOW.

OUTFLOW FROMM OLDER CONVECTION SINKING SOUTH THROUGH OHIO.  INCREASED
POPS SOONER IN SOUTHEAST OHIO THIS MORNING.

STILL TIMING THE FRONT TO REACH THE MID OHIO VALLEY AROUND PKB ABOUT
00Z...THEN EKN TO CRW AROUND 04Z...AND THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AROUND
BKW BEFORE DAWN...AROUND 08Z.

TIMING THE VARIOUS ROUNDS OF CONVECTION TODAY INTO TONIGHT...HAS
CONFIDENCE LEVEL LOWERED TO LOW.  THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME SEPARATE
CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AWAY FROM THE
FRONT...DUE TO THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY.   HAVE THE LIKELY
POPS...MOST COVERAGE...AHEAD OF THE FRONT ITSELF. THOSE LIKELY POPS
REACHING INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AFTER 15Z...AND INTO CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA TOWARD 18Z...THEN HTS TO CRW CORRIDOR 20/21Z...AND BKW
AFTER 00Z.  AGAIN THAT IS FOR THE MOST COVERAGE.

CEILINGS 2 TO 3 THSD FT AND VSBY AOB 3 MILES IN ANY PREFRONTAL
CONVECTION.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...HAVE SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES AT 06Z THURSDAY...WITH WAVE ACTION ALONG THE
FRONT.  SO HOLDING LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT TRANSITIONING
TO MOSTLY SHOWERS...RATHER THAN THUNDERSTORMS.

CEILINGS LOWERING 1 TO 2 THSD FT AND VSBY AROUND 3 MILES IN POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS.  CEILINGS OVER HIGH MOUNTAINS LIKELY TO DROP BELOW
1 THSD FT AND VSBY BLO 3 MILES.

MEANWHILE...DRIER AIR MOVING SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND TOWARD
PKB.  SO HAVE CEILINGS STARTING TO IMPROVE/LIFT FROM THE NORTH TOWARD
06Z THURSDAY...THEN CONTINUING TO IMPROVE IN THE MID OHIO VALLEY 06Z
TO 12Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE VARIOUS CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL LIKELY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    H    H    M    H    H    H    M    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN LINGERING WAVE ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
PKB ASOS IS NOT SENDING A COMPLETE OBSERVATION. NWS TECHS ARE
WORKING ON THE PROBLEM.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JS

EQUIPMENT...KTB










000
FXUS61 KRLX 230814
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
405 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH TODAY...INCREASING SHOWERS AND STORMS. FRONT
PASSES TONIGHT...WITH WAVE ALONG FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY. DRIER AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY. BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CERTAINLY WAS A WARM AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING...WITH
DEW POINTS ON EITHER SIDE OF 70 DEGREES.

HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACTLY HOW THE AREAS OF CONVECTION WILL
EVOLVE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.  YET...TRIED TO KEEP THE HIGHER POPS...IN
THE LIKELY RANGE...OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR TODAY...THEN LINGERED
THOSE HIGHER POPS A BIT LONGER IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATE
TONIGHT...AS THE MID LEVEL 500 MB TROF AXIS ACTS ON THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE.

EVEN AS DAWN APPROACHES...COULD NOT RULE OUT A LIGHT SHOWER FORMING
THIS MORNING...PATCHES OF CLOUDS HAVE BEEN FORMING PAST FEW HOURS.
PROBABLY RELATED TO THE INCREASE LOW LEVEL FLOW...COULD NOT
LOCATE/FIND ANY DISTURBANCES.  SO WE STILL KEPT THE FOG AT A MINIMUM
FOR DAWN.  MOSTLY IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM DURING THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY FURTHER
SOUTH...AWAY FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT...OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS TRY TO REACH 35 TO 40 THSD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOWLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.  MID LEVEL WINDS RATHER WEAK.
YET...COULD NOT RULE OUT A PULSE STORM REACHING SEVERE LIMITS...BUT
OVERALL THE THREAT FOR A LOT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR LARGE STILL
APPEARS TO BE RATHER LOW.  OF COURSE THE USUAL LIGHTNING AND
DOWNPOURS STILL DESERVES RESPECT.

HAVE THE FRONT ITSELF REACHING INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY NEAR
MARIETTA AND PARKERSBURG AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING...THEN REACHING OUT
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AROUND BKW ABOUT 09Z THURSDAY.  YET...WINDS AT
MOST LEVELS BEGIN TO VEER BEFORE THE SURFACE FRONT PASSES.

HAVE THUNDER CHANCES DECREASING N/S OVERNIGHT...EVEN THOUGH POPS
REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH IN THE SOUTH DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH WHERE CLOUDS
AND HIGHER POPS EXPECTED SOONER.

HAVE THE NORTH WIND DRIVING SOUTH IN SOUTHEAST OHIO TONIGHT...WITH
SOME CLEARING THERE LATE TONIGHT...AND LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
A BIT ESPECIALLY FROM HOCKING VALLEY NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WHILE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH FORECAST AREA TO START THE SHORT
TERM...POST FRONTAL PRECIP WILL STILL BE LINGERING AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES. WILL BE DRYING OUT FOR FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES. ALL MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY WEAK 500MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS IN NW FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
INCREASED POPS FRIDAY NIGHT ANTICIPATING DECAYING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ON A STRONG WAA AT 850MB. ALSO INCREASED
POPS ON SATURDAY WITH THE ACTUAL UPPER LEVEL RIPPLE.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND WITH LINGERING CLOUDS...EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS ON THURSDAY TO STAY BELOW 80. ADDED A COUPLE DEGREES TO THAT
FOR FRIDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE...AND THEN ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES
SATURDAY AS THE WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY. EXPECTING A COOLER NIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF READINGS IN THE 50S. CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP
FRIDAY NIGHT JUST A TOUCH WARMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE WEATHER ELEMENTS WITH A FEW
MINOR TWEAKS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ALTHOUGH NORTHWEST FLOW AT H5 WEAKENS SOME 5H...A SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED BY MODELS TO SLIDE ACROSS OUR AREA LATER SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE COULD BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS OR STORMS
BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

A LARGE OCCLUDING SYSTEM MEANDERS SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY...AS CUT-
OFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN PLAYING OUT THIS SCENARIO LATE IN THE
PERIOD FOR A GENERAL UPSWING IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY EARLY
MONDAY.

WEAK AND FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY
WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VERY MUGGY AIR WITH DEW POINTS ON EITHER SIDE OF 70 DEGREES.  STILL
NOT HITTING THE FOG HARD FOR THE PREDAWN AND DAWN HOURS.  SOME OF
THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...LIKE ELKINS...MAY VARY BETWEEN IFR AND
MVFR IN FOG. OTHERWISE SOME 5 TO 6 MILES IN HAZE POSSIBLE INTO
MID MORNING...SAY 14Z.

NEAR TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO FORM SOME PREDAWN SHOWERS IN WV.  MAY
BE RELATED TO THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW...AFTER 2 DAYS OF DEAD
FLOW.  WILL INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
NOT INCLUDE IN ANY POINT TAF SITES AT THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE TIME.

TIMING THE FRONT TO REACH THE MID OHIO VALLEY AROUND PKB ABOUT
00Z...THEN EKN TO CRW AROUND 04Z...AND THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
AROUND BKW BEFORE DAWN...AROUND 08Z.

TIMING THE VARIOUS ROUNDS OF CONVECTION HAS CONFIDENCE LEVEL LOWERED
TO LOW.  THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME SEPARATE CONVECTION FORMING OVER
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AWAY FROM THE FRONT...DUE TO THE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY.   HAVE THE LIKELY POPS...MOST COVERAGE...AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ITSELF. THOSE LIKELY POPS REACHING INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AFTER
15Z...AND INTO CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA TOWARD 18Z...THEN HTS TO CRW
CORRIDOR 20/21Z...AND BKW AFTER 00Z.  AGAIN THAT IS FOR THE MOST
COVERAGE.

CEILINGS 2 TO 3 THSD FT AND VSBY NEAR 3 MILES IN ANY PREFRONTAL
CONVECTION.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...HAVE SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES AT 06Z THURSDAY...WITH WAVE ACTION ALONG THE
FRONT.  SO HOLDING LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT TRANSITIONING
TO MOSTLY SHOWERS...RATHER THAN THUNDERSTORMS.

CEILINGS LOWERING 1 TO 2 THSD FT AND VSBY AROUND 3 MILES IN POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS.  CEILINGS OVER HIGH MOUNTAINS LIKELY TO DROP BELOW
1 THSD FT AND VSBY BLO 3 MILES.

MEANWHILE...DRIER AIR MOVING SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND TOWARD
PKB.  SO HAVE CEILINGS STARTING TO IMPROVE/LIFT FROM THE NORTH TOWARD
06Z THURSDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE VARIOUS CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL LIKELY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    WED 07/23/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    H    M    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN LINGERING WAVE ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
PKB ASOS IS NOT SENDING A COMPLETE OBSERVATION. NWS TECHS ARE
WORKING ON THE PROBLEM.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JS
EQUIPMENT...KTB












000
FXUS61 KRLX 230814
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
405 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH TODAY...INCREASING SHOWERS AND STORMS. FRONT
PASSES TONIGHT...WITH WAVE ALONG FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY. DRIER AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY. BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CERTAINLY WAS A WARM AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING...WITH
DEW POINTS ON EITHER SIDE OF 70 DEGREES.

HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACTLY HOW THE AREAS OF CONVECTION WILL
EVOLVE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.  YET...TRIED TO KEEP THE HIGHER POPS...IN
THE LIKELY RANGE...OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR TODAY...THEN LINGERED
THOSE HIGHER POPS A BIT LONGER IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATE
TONIGHT...AS THE MID LEVEL 500 MB TROF AXIS ACTS ON THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE.

EVEN AS DAWN APPROACHES...COULD NOT RULE OUT A LIGHT SHOWER FORMING
THIS MORNING...PATCHES OF CLOUDS HAVE BEEN FORMING PAST FEW HOURS.
PROBABLY RELATED TO THE INCREASE LOW LEVEL FLOW...COULD NOT
LOCATE/FIND ANY DISTURBANCES.  SO WE STILL KEPT THE FOG AT A MINIMUM
FOR DAWN.  MOSTLY IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM DURING THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY FURTHER
SOUTH...AWAY FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT...OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS TRY TO REACH 35 TO 40 THSD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOWLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.  MID LEVEL WINDS RATHER WEAK.
YET...COULD NOT RULE OUT A PULSE STORM REACHING SEVERE LIMITS...BUT
OVERALL THE THREAT FOR A LOT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR LARGE STILL
APPEARS TO BE RATHER LOW.  OF COURSE THE USUAL LIGHTNING AND
DOWNPOURS STILL DESERVES RESPECT.

HAVE THE FRONT ITSELF REACHING INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY NEAR
MARIETTA AND PARKERSBURG AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING...THEN REACHING OUT
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AROUND BKW ABOUT 09Z THURSDAY.  YET...WINDS AT
MOST LEVELS BEGIN TO VEER BEFORE THE SURFACE FRONT PASSES.

HAVE THUNDER CHANCES DECREASING N/S OVERNIGHT...EVEN THOUGH POPS
REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH IN THE SOUTH DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH WHERE CLOUDS
AND HIGHER POPS EXPECTED SOONER.

HAVE THE NORTH WIND DRIVING SOUTH IN SOUTHEAST OHIO TONIGHT...WITH
SOME CLEARING THERE LATE TONIGHT...AND LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
A BIT ESPECIALLY FROM HOCKING VALLEY NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WHILE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH FORECAST AREA TO START THE SHORT
TERM...POST FRONTAL PRECIP WILL STILL BE LINGERING AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES. WILL BE DRYING OUT FOR FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES. ALL MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY WEAK 500MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS IN NW FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
INCREASED POPS FRIDAY NIGHT ANTICIPATING DECAYING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ON A STRONG WAA AT 850MB. ALSO INCREASED
POPS ON SATURDAY WITH THE ACTUAL UPPER LEVEL RIPPLE.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND WITH LINGERING CLOUDS...EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS ON THURSDAY TO STAY BELOW 80. ADDED A COUPLE DEGREES TO THAT
FOR FRIDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE...AND THEN ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES
SATURDAY AS THE WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY. EXPECTING A COOLER NIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF READINGS IN THE 50S. CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP
FRIDAY NIGHT JUST A TOUCH WARMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE WEATHER ELEMENTS WITH A FEW
MINOR TWEAKS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ALTHOUGH NORTHWEST FLOW AT H5 WEAKENS SOME 5H...A SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED BY MODELS TO SLIDE ACROSS OUR AREA LATER SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE COULD BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS OR STORMS
BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

A LARGE OCCLUDING SYSTEM MEANDERS SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY...AS CUT-
OFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN PLAYING OUT THIS SCENARIO LATE IN THE
PERIOD FOR A GENERAL UPSWING IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY EARLY
MONDAY.

WEAK AND FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY
WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VERY MUGGY AIR WITH DEW POINTS ON EITHER SIDE OF 70 DEGREES.  STILL
NOT HITTING THE FOG HARD FOR THE PREDAWN AND DAWN HOURS.  SOME OF
THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...LIKE ELKINS...MAY VARY BETWEEN IFR AND
MVFR IN FOG. OTHERWISE SOME 5 TO 6 MILES IN HAZE POSSIBLE INTO
MID MORNING...SAY 14Z.

NEAR TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO FORM SOME PREDAWN SHOWERS IN WV.  MAY
BE RELATED TO THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW...AFTER 2 DAYS OF DEAD
FLOW.  WILL INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
NOT INCLUDE IN ANY POINT TAF SITES AT THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE TIME.

TIMING THE FRONT TO REACH THE MID OHIO VALLEY AROUND PKB ABOUT
00Z...THEN EKN TO CRW AROUND 04Z...AND THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
AROUND BKW BEFORE DAWN...AROUND 08Z.

TIMING THE VARIOUS ROUNDS OF CONVECTION HAS CONFIDENCE LEVEL LOWERED
TO LOW.  THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME SEPARATE CONVECTION FORMING OVER
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AWAY FROM THE FRONT...DUE TO THE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY.   HAVE THE LIKELY POPS...MOST COVERAGE...AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ITSELF. THOSE LIKELY POPS REACHING INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AFTER
15Z...AND INTO CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA TOWARD 18Z...THEN HTS TO CRW
CORRIDOR 20/21Z...AND BKW AFTER 00Z.  AGAIN THAT IS FOR THE MOST
COVERAGE.

CEILINGS 2 TO 3 THSD FT AND VSBY NEAR 3 MILES IN ANY PREFRONTAL
CONVECTION.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...HAVE SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES AT 06Z THURSDAY...WITH WAVE ACTION ALONG THE
FRONT.  SO HOLDING LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT TRANSITIONING
TO MOSTLY SHOWERS...RATHER THAN THUNDERSTORMS.

CEILINGS LOWERING 1 TO 2 THSD FT AND VSBY AROUND 3 MILES IN POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS.  CEILINGS OVER HIGH MOUNTAINS LIKELY TO DROP BELOW
1 THSD FT AND VSBY BLO 3 MILES.

MEANWHILE...DRIER AIR MOVING SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND TOWARD
PKB.  SO HAVE CEILINGS STARTING TO IMPROVE/LIFT FROM THE NORTH TOWARD
06Z THURSDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE VARIOUS CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL LIKELY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    WED 07/23/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    H    M    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN LINGERING WAVE ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
PKB ASOS IS NOT SENDING A COMPLETE OBSERVATION. NWS TECHS ARE
WORKING ON THE PROBLEM.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JS
EQUIPMENT...KTB













000
FXUS61 KRLX 230611
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
205 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH TODAY...INCREASING SHOWERS AND STORMS. FRONT
PASSES TONIGHT...WITH WAVE ALONG FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY. DRIER AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY WITH A BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MADE A FEW MINOR TWEEKS WITH POPS...AS PERSISTENT SHOWERS OVER THE
RIDGETOPS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO WIND
DOWN WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.  OTHERWISE REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA AS EXPECTED. DIURNAL CU
HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OFF TO THE EAST CREATING A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...CREATING THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STILL LOOKING LIKE
ANY CONVECTION THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP SHOULD STAY OVER MOUNTAINS
WITH OVERALL WEAK FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE.

EXPECTING ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA...WITH FOG
DEVELOPMENT ONLY EXPECTED IN DEEP MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. INCREASED BL
FLOW...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH...SHOULD HELP TO KEEP MUCH
FOG DEVELOPMENT AT BAY...AND KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE WARM
SIDE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ZONES.

SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACH THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT SHOULD ENTER SOUTHEAST OHIO ZONES
18-21Z...AND END UP TO THE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. STILL NOT EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD SEVERE
EVENT. GOOD CAPE/INSTABILITY PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED IN AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT NO
REAL STRONG DYNAMICS...AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY 20-25 KTS.
HOWEVER...COULD STILL GET SEVERE HAIL OR DMG WINDS WITH ANY STORM
THAT DEVELOPS. WILL MAINTAIN THIS IN THE HWO. SPC HAS AREA IN A
SEE TEXT FOR SEVERE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BE CROSSING EAST
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS...ALLOWING DRIER BUT WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW.
THEREFORE...LIKELY POPS STILL EXPECTED IN THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...QUICKLY IMPROVING BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT A
COOL AND MUGGY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES REACH THEIR
DEWPOINTS...PERHAPS PRODUCING AREAS OF FOG UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

DECREASED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY 12-15Z THURSDAY WITH CHANCES
ALONG THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE ALL MOVE EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA BY MID
DAY THURSDAY. MODELS AGREE IN A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE SHORTLY BEHIND
THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY...SO HOLD ON INTO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...MOST OF THE LOWLAND WILL PROBABLY REMAIN DRY WITH MAX
TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPPER 70S. A BIT OF A TOUGH CALL ON SKY
COVER...CODED UP PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR
THE LOWLANDS BUT SOME INDICATION THAT A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CU FIELD
MAY REDEVELOP UNDERNEATH AFOREMENTIONED INVERSION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE WEATHER ELEMENTS WITH A FEW
MINOR TWEAKS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW TURNS WEST AND SOUTHWEST AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH
NORTHWEST FLOW AT H5 WEAKENS SOME 5H...A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED BY
MODELS TO SLIDE ACROSS OUR AREA LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS
FEATURE COULD BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS OR STORMS BY THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

A LARGE OCCLUDING SYSTEM MEANDERS SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY...AS CUT-
OFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN PLAYING OUT THIS SCENARIO LATE IN THE
PERIOD FOR A GENERAL UPSWING IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY EARLY
MONDAY.

WEAK AND FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY
WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VERY MUGGY AIR WITH DEW POINTS ON EITHER SIDE OF 70 DEGREES.  STILL
NOT HITTING THE FOG HARD FOR THE PREDAWN AND DAWN HOURS.  SOME OF
THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...LIKE ELKINS...MAY VARY BETWEEN IFR AND
MVFR IN FOG. OTHERWISE SOME 5 TO 6 MILES IN HAZE POSSIBLE INTO
MID MORNING...SAY 14Z.

NEAR TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO FORM SOME PREDAWN SHOWERS IN WV.  MAY
BE RELATED TO THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW...AFTER 2 DAYS OF DEAD
FLOW.  WILL INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
NOT INCLUDE IN ANY POINT TAF SITES AT THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE TIME.

TIMING THE FRONT TO REACH THE MID OHIO VALLEY AROUND PKB ABOUT
00Z...THEN EKN TO CRW AROUND 04Z...AND THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
AROUND BKW BEFORE DAWN...AROUND 08Z.

TIMING THE VARIOUS ROUNDS OF CONVECTION HAS CONFIDENCE LEVEL LOWERED
TO LOW.  THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME SEPARATE CONVECTION FORMING OVER
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AWAY FROM THE FRONT...DUE TO THE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY.   HAVE THE LIKELY POPS...MOST COVERAGE...AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ITSELF. THOSE LIKELY POPS REACHING INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AFTER
15Z...AND INTO CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA TOWARD 18Z...THEN HTS TO CRW
CORRIDOR 20/21Z...AND BKW AFTER 00Z.  AGAIN THAT IS FOR THE MOST
COVERAGE.

CEILINGS 2 TO 3 THSD FT AND VSBY NEAR 3 MILES IN ANY PREFRONTAL
CONVECTION.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...HAVE SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES AT 06Z THURSDAY...WITH WAVE ACTION ALONG THE
FRONT.  SO HOLDING LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT TRANSITIONING
TO MOSTLY SHOWERS...RATHER THAN THUNDERSTORMS.

CEILINGS LOWERING 1 TO 2 THSD FT AND VSBY AROUND 3 MILES IN POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS.  CEILINGS OVER HIGH MOUNTAINS LIKELY TO DROP BELOW
1 THSD FT AND VSBY BLO 3 MILES.

MEANWHILE...DRIER AIR MOVING SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND TOWARD
PKB.  SO HAVE CEILINGS STARTING TO IMPROVE/LIFT FROM THE NORTH TOWARD
06Z THURSDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE VARIOUS CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL LIKELY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              WED 07/23/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN LINGERING WAVE ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
PKB ASOS IS NOT SENDING A COMPLETE OBSERVATION. NWS TECHS ARE
WORKING ON THE PROBLEM.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...JS/SL
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JS
EQUIPMENT...KTB









000
FXUS61 KRLX 230611
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
205 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH TODAY...INCREASING SHOWERS AND STORMS. FRONT
PASSES TONIGHT...WITH WAVE ALONG FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY. DRIER AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY WITH A BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MADE A FEW MINOR TWEEKS WITH POPS...AS PERSISTENT SHOWERS OVER THE
RIDGETOPS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO WIND
DOWN WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.  OTHERWISE REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA AS EXPECTED. DIURNAL CU
HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OFF TO THE EAST CREATING A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...CREATING THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STILL LOOKING LIKE
ANY CONVECTION THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP SHOULD STAY OVER MOUNTAINS
WITH OVERALL WEAK FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE.

EXPECTING ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA...WITH FOG
DEVELOPMENT ONLY EXPECTED IN DEEP MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. INCREASED BL
FLOW...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH...SHOULD HELP TO KEEP MUCH
FOG DEVELOPMENT AT BAY...AND KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE WARM
SIDE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ZONES.

SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACH THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT SHOULD ENTER SOUTHEAST OHIO ZONES
18-21Z...AND END UP TO THE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. STILL NOT EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD SEVERE
EVENT. GOOD CAPE/INSTABILITY PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED IN AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT NO
REAL STRONG DYNAMICS...AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY 20-25 KTS.
HOWEVER...COULD STILL GET SEVERE HAIL OR DMG WINDS WITH ANY STORM
THAT DEVELOPS. WILL MAINTAIN THIS IN THE HWO. SPC HAS AREA IN A
SEE TEXT FOR SEVERE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BE CROSSING EAST
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS...ALLOWING DRIER BUT WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW.
THEREFORE...LIKELY POPS STILL EXPECTED IN THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...QUICKLY IMPROVING BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT A
COOL AND MUGGY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES REACH THEIR
DEWPOINTS...PERHAPS PRODUCING AREAS OF FOG UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

DECREASED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY 12-15Z THURSDAY WITH CHANCES
ALONG THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE ALL MOVE EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA BY MID
DAY THURSDAY. MODELS AGREE IN A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE SHORTLY BEHIND
THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY...SO HOLD ON INTO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...MOST OF THE LOWLAND WILL PROBABLY REMAIN DRY WITH MAX
TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPPER 70S. A BIT OF A TOUGH CALL ON SKY
COVER...CODED UP PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR
THE LOWLANDS BUT SOME INDICATION THAT A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CU FIELD
MAY REDEVELOP UNDERNEATH AFOREMENTIONED INVERSION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE WEATHER ELEMENTS WITH A FEW
MINOR TWEAKS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW TURNS WEST AND SOUTHWEST AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH
NORTHWEST FLOW AT H5 WEAKENS SOME 5H...A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED BY
MODELS TO SLIDE ACROSS OUR AREA LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS
FEATURE COULD BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS OR STORMS BY THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

A LARGE OCCLUDING SYSTEM MEANDERS SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY...AS CUT-
OFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN PLAYING OUT THIS SCENARIO LATE IN THE
PERIOD FOR A GENERAL UPSWING IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY EARLY
MONDAY.

WEAK AND FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY
WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VERY MUGGY AIR WITH DEW POINTS ON EITHER SIDE OF 70 DEGREES.  STILL
NOT HITTING THE FOG HARD FOR THE PREDAWN AND DAWN HOURS.  SOME OF
THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...LIKE ELKINS...MAY VARY BETWEEN IFR AND
MVFR IN FOG. OTHERWISE SOME 5 TO 6 MILES IN HAZE POSSIBLE INTO
MID MORNING...SAY 14Z.

NEAR TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO FORM SOME PREDAWN SHOWERS IN WV.  MAY
BE RELATED TO THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW...AFTER 2 DAYS OF DEAD
FLOW.  WILL INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
NOT INCLUDE IN ANY POINT TAF SITES AT THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE TIME.

TIMING THE FRONT TO REACH THE MID OHIO VALLEY AROUND PKB ABOUT
00Z...THEN EKN TO CRW AROUND 04Z...AND THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
AROUND BKW BEFORE DAWN...AROUND 08Z.

TIMING THE VARIOUS ROUNDS OF CONVECTION HAS CONFIDENCE LEVEL LOWERED
TO LOW.  THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME SEPARATE CONVECTION FORMING OVER
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AWAY FROM THE FRONT...DUE TO THE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY.   HAVE THE LIKELY POPS...MOST COVERAGE...AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ITSELF. THOSE LIKELY POPS REACHING INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AFTER
15Z...AND INTO CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA TOWARD 18Z...THEN HTS TO CRW
CORRIDOR 20/21Z...AND BKW AFTER 00Z.  AGAIN THAT IS FOR THE MOST
COVERAGE.

CEILINGS 2 TO 3 THSD FT AND VSBY NEAR 3 MILES IN ANY PREFRONTAL
CONVECTION.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...HAVE SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES AT 06Z THURSDAY...WITH WAVE ACTION ALONG THE
FRONT.  SO HOLDING LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT TRANSITIONING
TO MOSTLY SHOWERS...RATHER THAN THUNDERSTORMS.

CEILINGS LOWERING 1 TO 2 THSD FT AND VSBY AROUND 3 MILES IN POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS.  CEILINGS OVER HIGH MOUNTAINS LIKELY TO DROP BELOW
1 THSD FT AND VSBY BLO 3 MILES.

MEANWHILE...DRIER AIR MOVING SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND TOWARD
PKB.  SO HAVE CEILINGS STARTING TO IMPROVE/LIFT FROM THE NORTH TOWARD
06Z THURSDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE VARIOUS CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL LIKELY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              WED 07/23/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN LINGERING WAVE ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
PKB ASOS IS NOT SENDING A COMPLETE OBSERVATION. NWS TECHS ARE
WORKING ON THE PROBLEM.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...JS/SL
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JS
EQUIPMENT...KTB









000
FXUS61 KRLX 230611
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
205 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH TODAY...INCREASING SHOWERS AND STORMS. FRONT
PASSES TONIGHT...WITH WAVE ALONG FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY. DRIER AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY WITH A BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MADE A FEW MINOR TWEEKS WITH POPS...AS PERSISTENT SHOWERS OVER THE
RIDGETOPS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO WIND
DOWN WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.  OTHERWISE REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA AS EXPECTED. DIURNAL CU
HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OFF TO THE EAST CREATING A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...CREATING THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STILL LOOKING LIKE
ANY CONVECTION THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP SHOULD STAY OVER MOUNTAINS
WITH OVERALL WEAK FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE.

EXPECTING ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA...WITH FOG
DEVELOPMENT ONLY EXPECTED IN DEEP MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. INCREASED BL
FLOW...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH...SHOULD HELP TO KEEP MUCH
FOG DEVELOPMENT AT BAY...AND KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE WARM
SIDE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ZONES.

SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACH THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT SHOULD ENTER SOUTHEAST OHIO ZONES
18-21Z...AND END UP TO THE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. STILL NOT EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD SEVERE
EVENT. GOOD CAPE/INSTABILITY PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED IN AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT NO
REAL STRONG DYNAMICS...AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY 20-25 KTS.
HOWEVER...COULD STILL GET SEVERE HAIL OR DMG WINDS WITH ANY STORM
THAT DEVELOPS. WILL MAINTAIN THIS IN THE HWO. SPC HAS AREA IN A
SEE TEXT FOR SEVERE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BE CROSSING EAST
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS...ALLOWING DRIER BUT WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW.
THEREFORE...LIKELY POPS STILL EXPECTED IN THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...QUICKLY IMPROVING BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT A
COOL AND MUGGY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES REACH THEIR
DEWPOINTS...PERHAPS PRODUCING AREAS OF FOG UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

DECREASED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY 12-15Z THURSDAY WITH CHANCES
ALONG THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE ALL MOVE EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA BY MID
DAY THURSDAY. MODELS AGREE IN A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE SHORTLY BEHIND
THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY...SO HOLD ON INTO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...MOST OF THE LOWLAND WILL PROBABLY REMAIN DRY WITH MAX
TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPPER 70S. A BIT OF A TOUGH CALL ON SKY
COVER...CODED UP PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR
THE LOWLANDS BUT SOME INDICATION THAT A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CU FIELD
MAY REDEVELOP UNDERNEATH AFOREMENTIONED INVERSION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE WEATHER ELEMENTS WITH A FEW
MINOR TWEAKS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW TURNS WEST AND SOUTHWEST AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH
NORTHWEST FLOW AT H5 WEAKENS SOME 5H...A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED BY
MODELS TO SLIDE ACROSS OUR AREA LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS
FEATURE COULD BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS OR STORMS BY THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

A LARGE OCCLUDING SYSTEM MEANDERS SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY...AS CUT-
OFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN PLAYING OUT THIS SCENARIO LATE IN THE
PERIOD FOR A GENERAL UPSWING IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY EARLY
MONDAY.

WEAK AND FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY
WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VERY MUGGY AIR WITH DEW POINTS ON EITHER SIDE OF 70 DEGREES.  STILL
NOT HITTING THE FOG HARD FOR THE PREDAWN AND DAWN HOURS.  SOME OF
THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...LIKE ELKINS...MAY VARY BETWEEN IFR AND
MVFR IN FOG. OTHERWISE SOME 5 TO 6 MILES IN HAZE POSSIBLE INTO
MID MORNING...SAY 14Z.

NEAR TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO FORM SOME PREDAWN SHOWERS IN WV.  MAY
BE RELATED TO THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW...AFTER 2 DAYS OF DEAD
FLOW.  WILL INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
NOT INCLUDE IN ANY POINT TAF SITES AT THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE TIME.

TIMING THE FRONT TO REACH THE MID OHIO VALLEY AROUND PKB ABOUT
00Z...THEN EKN TO CRW AROUND 04Z...AND THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
AROUND BKW BEFORE DAWN...AROUND 08Z.

TIMING THE VARIOUS ROUNDS OF CONVECTION HAS CONFIDENCE LEVEL LOWERED
TO LOW.  THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME SEPARATE CONVECTION FORMING OVER
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AWAY FROM THE FRONT...DUE TO THE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY.   HAVE THE LIKELY POPS...MOST COVERAGE...AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ITSELF. THOSE LIKELY POPS REACHING INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AFTER
15Z...AND INTO CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA TOWARD 18Z...THEN HTS TO CRW
CORRIDOR 20/21Z...AND BKW AFTER 00Z.  AGAIN THAT IS FOR THE MOST
COVERAGE.

CEILINGS 2 TO 3 THSD FT AND VSBY NEAR 3 MILES IN ANY PREFRONTAL
CONVECTION.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...HAVE SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES AT 06Z THURSDAY...WITH WAVE ACTION ALONG THE
FRONT.  SO HOLDING LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT TRANSITIONING
TO MOSTLY SHOWERS...RATHER THAN THUNDERSTORMS.

CEILINGS LOWERING 1 TO 2 THSD FT AND VSBY AROUND 3 MILES IN POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS.  CEILINGS OVER HIGH MOUNTAINS LIKELY TO DROP BELOW
1 THSD FT AND VSBY BLO 3 MILES.

MEANWHILE...DRIER AIR MOVING SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND TOWARD
PKB.  SO HAVE CEILINGS STARTING TO IMPROVE/LIFT FROM THE NORTH TOWARD
06Z THURSDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE VARIOUS CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL LIKELY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              WED 07/23/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN LINGERING WAVE ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
PKB ASOS IS NOT SENDING A COMPLETE OBSERVATION. NWS TECHS ARE
WORKING ON THE PROBLEM.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...JS/SL
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JS
EQUIPMENT...KTB









000
FXUS61 KRLX 230611
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
205 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH TODAY...INCREASING SHOWERS AND STORMS. FRONT
PASSES TONIGHT...WITH WAVE ALONG FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY. DRIER AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY WITH A BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MADE A FEW MINOR TWEEKS WITH POPS...AS PERSISTENT SHOWERS OVER THE
RIDGETOPS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO WIND
DOWN WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.  OTHERWISE REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA AS EXPECTED. DIURNAL CU
HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OFF TO THE EAST CREATING A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...CREATING THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STILL LOOKING LIKE
ANY CONVECTION THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP SHOULD STAY OVER MOUNTAINS
WITH OVERALL WEAK FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE.

EXPECTING ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA...WITH FOG
DEVELOPMENT ONLY EXPECTED IN DEEP MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. INCREASED BL
FLOW...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH...SHOULD HELP TO KEEP MUCH
FOG DEVELOPMENT AT BAY...AND KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE WARM
SIDE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ZONES.

SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACH THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT SHOULD ENTER SOUTHEAST OHIO ZONES
18-21Z...AND END UP TO THE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. STILL NOT EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD SEVERE
EVENT. GOOD CAPE/INSTABILITY PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED IN AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT NO
REAL STRONG DYNAMICS...AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY 20-25 KTS.
HOWEVER...COULD STILL GET SEVERE HAIL OR DMG WINDS WITH ANY STORM
THAT DEVELOPS. WILL MAINTAIN THIS IN THE HWO. SPC HAS AREA IN A
SEE TEXT FOR SEVERE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BE CROSSING EAST
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS...ALLOWING DRIER BUT WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW.
THEREFORE...LIKELY POPS STILL EXPECTED IN THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...QUICKLY IMPROVING BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT A
COOL AND MUGGY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES REACH THEIR
DEWPOINTS...PERHAPS PRODUCING AREAS OF FOG UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

DECREASED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY 12-15Z THURSDAY WITH CHANCES
ALONG THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE ALL MOVE EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA BY MID
DAY THURSDAY. MODELS AGREE IN A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE SHORTLY BEHIND
THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY...SO HOLD ON INTO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...MOST OF THE LOWLAND WILL PROBABLY REMAIN DRY WITH MAX
TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPPER 70S. A BIT OF A TOUGH CALL ON SKY
COVER...CODED UP PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR
THE LOWLANDS BUT SOME INDICATION THAT A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CU FIELD
MAY REDEVELOP UNDERNEATH AFOREMENTIONED INVERSION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE WEATHER ELEMENTS WITH A FEW
MINOR TWEAKS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW TURNS WEST AND SOUTHWEST AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH
NORTHWEST FLOW AT H5 WEAKENS SOME 5H...A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED BY
MODELS TO SLIDE ACROSS OUR AREA LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS
FEATURE COULD BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS OR STORMS BY THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

A LARGE OCCLUDING SYSTEM MEANDERS SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY...AS CUT-
OFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN PLAYING OUT THIS SCENARIO LATE IN THE
PERIOD FOR A GENERAL UPSWING IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY EARLY
MONDAY.

WEAK AND FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY
WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VERY MUGGY AIR WITH DEW POINTS ON EITHER SIDE OF 70 DEGREES.  STILL
NOT HITTING THE FOG HARD FOR THE PREDAWN AND DAWN HOURS.  SOME OF
THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...LIKE ELKINS...MAY VARY BETWEEN IFR AND
MVFR IN FOG. OTHERWISE SOME 5 TO 6 MILES IN HAZE POSSIBLE INTO
MID MORNING...SAY 14Z.

NEAR TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO FORM SOME PREDAWN SHOWERS IN WV.  MAY
BE RELATED TO THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW...AFTER 2 DAYS OF DEAD
FLOW.  WILL INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
NOT INCLUDE IN ANY POINT TAF SITES AT THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE TIME.

TIMING THE FRONT TO REACH THE MID OHIO VALLEY AROUND PKB ABOUT
00Z...THEN EKN TO CRW AROUND 04Z...AND THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
AROUND BKW BEFORE DAWN...AROUND 08Z.

TIMING THE VARIOUS ROUNDS OF CONVECTION HAS CONFIDENCE LEVEL LOWERED
TO LOW.  THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME SEPARATE CONVECTION FORMING OVER
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AWAY FROM THE FRONT...DUE TO THE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY.   HAVE THE LIKELY POPS...MOST COVERAGE...AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ITSELF. THOSE LIKELY POPS REACHING INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AFTER
15Z...AND INTO CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA TOWARD 18Z...THEN HTS TO CRW
CORRIDOR 20/21Z...AND BKW AFTER 00Z.  AGAIN THAT IS FOR THE MOST
COVERAGE.

CEILINGS 2 TO 3 THSD FT AND VSBY NEAR 3 MILES IN ANY PREFRONTAL
CONVECTION.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...HAVE SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES AT 06Z THURSDAY...WITH WAVE ACTION ALONG THE
FRONT.  SO HOLDING LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT TRANSITIONING
TO MOSTLY SHOWERS...RATHER THAN THUNDERSTORMS.

CEILINGS LOWERING 1 TO 2 THSD FT AND VSBY AROUND 3 MILES IN POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS.  CEILINGS OVER HIGH MOUNTAINS LIKELY TO DROP BELOW
1 THSD FT AND VSBY BLO 3 MILES.

MEANWHILE...DRIER AIR MOVING SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND TOWARD
PKB.  SO HAVE CEILINGS STARTING TO IMPROVE/LIFT FROM THE NORTH TOWARD
06Z THURSDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE VARIOUS CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL LIKELY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              WED 07/23/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN LINGERING WAVE ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
PKB ASOS IS NOT SENDING A COMPLETE OBSERVATION. NWS TECHS ARE
WORKING ON THE PROBLEM.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...JS/SL
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JS
EQUIPMENT...KTB









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