[top]
000
FXUS61 KRLX 221532
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1132 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LATE
THURSDAY. UPPER LOW CROSSES EARLY FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR...FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1130 AM MESOSCALE UPDATE...
FOLLOWING AN AREA OF SHRA/TSRA IN N MTNS THAT WILL SLIDE OFF TO NE
IN NEXT HR OR SO. OTHERWISE...CWA QUIET AS OF 15Z. THAT WILL CHANGE
THIS AFTN WITH SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING. TRACKING ANOTHER MID LVL WAVE
MOVING NE ACROSS CENTRAL OH/KY AS UPR TROF DROPS DOWN INTO UPR MS
VALLEY. MOST OF HI RES MDLS...RUC...AND NAM SEEM TO HAVE A GRASP ON
THIS FEATURE AS IT HEADS ACROSS CWA INTO THIS AFTN. USED LLVL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH MID LVL LIFT ALONG WITH CURRENT
SATELLITE TRENDS FOR TIMING. CAP OVER AREA SHOULD ERODE BY 17Z
JUST AS THIS FEATURE IS MOVING INTO W AND S ZONES. AS SUCH BEGIN
TO RAMP UP POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE KY AND W LOWLANDS 17 TO
18Z...OVER TO KANAWHA VALLEY SHORTLY THEREAFTER...WITH LKLY POPS.
NOT SURE HOW MUCH DEVELOPMENT REACHES INTO SE OH OR ALONG OH RVR
UP N. THUS HAVE ONLY LOW POPS THERE INITIALLY. OTHER AREA OF
CONVECTIVE INITIALIZATION SHOULD BE ACROSS MUCH E RIDGES OF MTNS
DOWN TO SW VA AIDED WITH SOME SE UPSLOPE FLOW. IN FACT MDLS
INDICATE THIS CONVECTION MAY TRY TO COME OFF THE RIDGES TOWARD I79
CORRIDOR TO COINCIDE WITH CONVECTIVE BAND MOVING THRU KANAWHA
VALLEY. THUS...HAVE SOME CAT POPS IN THIS AREA BY 21Z. MAY SEE A
LULL W ZONES ONCE THIS MOVES THRU UNTIL COLD FRONT APPROACHES BY
00Z AS BL TRIES TO STABILIZE. QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW ACTIVE IS
FRONT AS IT MOVES THRU TONIGHT. THINK SE OH STANDS TO SEE GREATEST
COVERAGE OF FRONTAL PCPN SHOULD AFTN ACTIVITY STAY MOSTLY E AND S OF
THEM. WILL TRY TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THAT NEXT FEW HRS.
SPC CONT SLIGHT RISK OVER MUCH OF AREA FOR THIS AFTN/EVE. MDL
SOUNDINGS LOOK SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME DECENT ML CAPE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER FLOW ALOFT COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. THINK WIND IS GREATEST CONCERN AGAIN TDY WITH DOWNDRAFT
CAPE AND SFC-H7 DELTA THETA VALUES INDICATIVE OF DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL. FRZ LVL LOOKS TO BE ARND 12K WITH WETBULB HEIGHTS CLOSER
TO 10K...SO CANT RULE OUT SOME LARGER HAIL. CODED UP THE STRONG
ATTRIBUTES IN WX GRIDS FOR THIS AFTN.
PWATS ARND 1.5 AGAIN TDY BUT STORM MOTION/SPEED MAY MITIGATE
WATERN CONCERNS IN SOGGY COAL FIELDS/SW VA/MTNS. WILL MONITOR
TRENDS THOUGH SHOULD RIDGE TOPS GET GOING EARLY.
PREV DISCN...
TODAY LOOKS LIKE THE MIDDLE DAY OF THE THREE DAYS OF STRONG TO
SEVERE WE SEEM TO GET PRECEDING WARM SEASON COLD FRONTS. THE
WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR TO THAT OF TUE.
UPPER LEVEL FORCING APPEARS TO REMAIN IN TACT AS IT CROSSES FCST
AREA RIGHT DURING PEAK HEATING...EVEN AS SURFACE COLD FRONT SEEMS TO
LOSE DEFINITION. AS HEIGHTS FALL...LIX VALUES DROP TO AROUND -6
WHILE CAPE INCREASES TO AT LEAST 2KJ/KG AND WBZ HEIGHTS HOVER AROUND
10KFT. MEAN MID LAYER FLOW RANGES FROM AROUND 20 KTS SE TO AS HIGH
AS 40 KTS NW...WHICH JIBES WITH SPC/S EASTERN EDGE OF THE SLIGHT
RISK WHICH IS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ESSENTIALLY THE ENTIRE AREA IS IN
THE DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK NOW.
WILL KEEP STRONG WORDING IN FCST FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS AND EXPAND HWO THREAT TO ENTIRE FCST AREA.
PW VALUES EXCEED 1.5 INCHES SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO LIKELY.
THE CONVECTION WILL DIE DOWN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT NOT AS QUICKLY
AS THIS PAST NT ON ACCOUNT OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND WHAT IS
LEFT OF THE SFC FRONT.
NO IMPORTANT CHANGES NEEDED TO TEMPERATURES. HIGHS TODAY WERE
AROUND MIDDLE GROUND IN LIGHT OF LATEST GUIDANCE AND BIAS CORRECTED
GUIDANCE AND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION...SO SAW LITTLE CHANCE FOR IMPROVEMENT UPON PREVIOUS
FCST. CONVERSELY...SMALL RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES ON LOWS TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES ON THURSDAY...AND PART OF FRIDAY...AS
UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. STILL COULD BE SOME STORMS ON
THURSDAY THAT MAY CONTAIN SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS AS THERE WILL
STILL BE MODERATE WINDS ALOFT...BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY IS
WEAK...AND SO SEVERE RISK IS LOW.
DRIER...COOLER...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL TAKE HOLD FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EAST. DID ELECT
TO LOWER TEMPS SLIGHTLY DURING THIS PERIOD...PARTICULARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...AS GOOD CLEARING...LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. MAY BE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY MORNING UNDER THESE CONDITIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED WPC THINKING FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST A FEW WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE SOUTHEAST. BELIEVE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY...WITH
A FEW MORE CLOUDS BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT
A WARM FRONT WILL THEN DEVELOP AND APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY. AS
A RESULT...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE 70S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...WITH 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. AS THE HIGH PUSHES EAST ON SUNDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONCE EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG IS GONE...VFR MORNING AHEAD OF ANOTHER
DAY OF CONVECTION THAT WILL INITIATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN SO
INTO THIS EVENING. THEY WILL DEVELOP / MOVE IN FROM THE W BUT AT
THE SAME TIME...ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE EFFECT WILL GET STORMS FIRING
OVER THE WV MOUNTAINS. THIS IS WHY THERE IS A SECOND TSRA GROUP IN
THE MOUNTAIN TAFS FOR LATER TONIGHT.
ANY THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD PRODUCE IFR
CONDITIONS AND VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE AREA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
CONCERNING WIND GUSTS OF 50 KTS OR GREATER ALONG WITH HAIL TO ONE
INCH IN DIAMETER.
DENSE POST RAIN NOCTURNAL VALLEY FOG IS AGAIN LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.
S TO SW SFC FLOW WILL BECOME A BIT GUSTY OUTSIDE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
AND THEN LIGHT S TONIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME S TO SW TODAY AND THEN SW OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...STILL LIGHT TO MODERATE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DEGREE OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE TO
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT COULD VARY...AS WELL AS TIMING
AND EXTENT OF DENSE VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN POST RAIN NOCTURNAL VALLEY FOG EARLY THU
MORNING...AND IN VALLEY FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/30
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...TRM
000
FXUS61 KRLX 221025
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
625 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LATE
THURSDAY. UPPER LOW CROSSES EARLY FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR...FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK.
PREV DISCN...
TODAY LOOKS LIKE THE MIDDLE DAY OF THE THREE DAYS OF STRONG TO
SEVERE WE SEEM TO GET PRECEDING WARM SEASON COLD FRONTS. THE
WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR TO THAT OF TUE.
UPPER LEVEL FORCING APPEARS TO REMAIN IN TACT AS IT CROSSES FCST
AREA RIGHT DURING PEAK HEATING...EVEN AS SURFACE COLD FRONT SEEMS TO
LOSE DEFINITION. AS HEIGHTS FALL...LIX VALUES DROP TO AROUND -6
WHILE CAPE INCREASES TO AT LEAST 2KJ/KG AND WBZ HEIGHTS HOVER AROUND
10KFT. MEAN MID LAYER FLOW RANGES FROM AROUND 20 KTS SE TO AS HIGH
AS 40 KTS NW...WHICH JIBES WITH SPC/S EASTERN EDGE OF THE SLIGHT
RISK WHICH IS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ESSENTIALLY THE ENTIRE AREA IS IN
THE DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK NOW.
WILL KEEP STRONG WORDING IN FCST FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS AND EXPAND HWO THREAT TO ENTIRE FCST AREA.
PW VALUES EXCEED 1.5 INCHES SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO LIKELY.
THE CONVECTION WILL DIE DOWN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT NOT AS QUICKLY
AS THIS PAST NT ON ACCOUNT OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND WHAT IS
LEFT OF THE SFC FRONT.
NO IMPORTANT CHANGES NEEDED TO TEMPERATURES. HIGHS TODAY WERE
AROUND MIDDLE GROUND IN LIGHT OF LATEST GUIDANCE AND BIAS CORRECTED
GUIDANCE AND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION...SO SAW LITTLE CHANCE FOR IMPROVEMENT UPON PREVIOUS
FCST. CONVERSELY...SMALL RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES ON LOWS TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES ON THURSDAY...AND PART OF FRIDAY...AS
UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. STILL COULD BE SOME STORMS ON
THURSDAY THAT MAY CONTAIN SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS AS THERE WILL
STILL BE MODERATE WINDS ALOFT...BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY IS
WEAK...AND SO SEVERE RISK IS LOW.
DRIER...COOLER...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL TAKE HOLD FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EAST. DID ELECT
TO LOWER TEMPS SLIGHTLY DURING THIS PERIOD...PARTICULARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...AS GOOD CLEARING...LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. MAY BE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY MORNING UNDER THESE CONDITIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED WPC THINKING FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST A FEW WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE SOUTHEAST. BELIEVE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY...WITH
A FEW MORE CLOUDS BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT
A WARM FRONT WILL THEN DEVELOP AND APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY. AS
A RESULT...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE 70S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...WITH 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. AS THE HIGH PUSHES EAST ON SUNDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONCE EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG IS GONE...VFR MORNING AHEAD OF ANOTHER
DAY OF CONVECTION THAT WILL INITIATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN SO
INTO THIS EVENING. THEY WILL DEVELOP / MOVE IN FROM THE W BUT AT
THE SAME TIME...ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE EFFECT WILL GET STORMS FIRING
OVER THE WV MOUNTAINS. THIS IS WHY THERE IS A SECOND TSRA GROUP IN
THE MOUNTAIN TAFS FOR LATER TONIGHT.
ANY THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD PRODUCE IFR
CONDITIONS AND VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE AREA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
CONCERNING WIND GUSTS OF 50 KTS OR GREATER ALONG WITH HAIL TO ONE
INCH IN DIAMETER.
DENSE POST RAIN NOCTURNAL VALLEY FOG IS AGAIN LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.
S TO SW SFC FLOW WILL BECOME A BIT GUSTY OUTSIDE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
AND THEN LIGHT S TONIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME S TO SW TODAY AND THEN SW OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...STILL LIGHT TO MODERATE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DEGREE OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE TO
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT COULD VARY...AS WELL AS TIMING
AND EXTENT OF DENSE VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L M H M M H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN POST RAIN NOCTURNAL VALLEY FOG EARLY THU
MORNING...AND IN VALLEY FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...TRM
000
FXUS61 KRLX 220728
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
328 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LATE
THURSDAY. UPPER LOW CROSSES EARLY FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR...FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY LOOKS LIKE THE MIDDLE DAY OF THE THREE DAYS OF STRONG TO
SEVERE WE SEEM TO GET PRECEDING WARM SEASON COLD FRONTS. THE
WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR TO THAT OF TUE.
UPPER LEVEL FORCING APPEARS TO REMAIN IN TACT AS IT CROSSES FCST
AREA RIGHT DURING PEAK HEATING...EVEN AS SURFACE COLD FRONT SEEMS TO
LOSE DEFINITION. AS HEIGHTS FALL...LIX VALUES DROP TO AROUND -6
WHILE CAPE INCREASES TO AT LEAST 2KJ/KG AND WBZ HEIGHTS HOVER AROUND
10KFT. MEAN MID LAYER FLOW RANGES FROM AROUND 20 KTS SE TO AS HIGH
AS 40 KTS NW...WHICH JIBES WITH SPC/S EASTERN EDGE OF THE SLIGHT
RISK WHICH IS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ESSENTIALLY THE ENTIRE AREA IS IN
THE DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK NOW.
WILL KEEP STRONG WORDING IN FCST FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS AND EXPAND HWO THREAT TO ENTIRE FCST AREA.
PW VALUES EXCEED 1.5 INCHES SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO LIKELY.
THE CONVECTION WILL DIE DOWN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT NOT AS QUICKLY
AS THIS PAST NT ON ACCOUNT OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND WHAT IS
LEFT OF THE SFC FRONT.
NO IMPORTANT CHANGES NEEDED TO TEMPERATURES. HIGHS TODAY WERE
AROUND MIDDLE GROUND IN LIGHT OF LATEST GUIDANCE AND BIAS CORRECTED
GUIDANCE AND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION...SO SAW LITTLE CHANCE FOR IMPROVEMENT UPON PREVIOUS
FCST. CONVERSELY...SMALL RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES ON LOWS TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES ON THURSDAY...AND PART OF FRIDAY...AS
UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. STILL COULD BE SOME STORMS ON
THURSDAY THAT MAY CONTAIN SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS AS THERE WILL
STILL BE MODERATE WINDS ALOFT...BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY IS
WEAK...AND SO SEVERE RISK IS LOW.
DRIER...COOLER...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL TAKE HOLD FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EAST. DID ELECT
TO LOWER TEMPS SLIGHTLY DURING THIS PERIOD...PARTICULARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...AS GOOD CLEARING...LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. MAY BE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY MORNING UNDER THESE CONDITIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED WPC THINKING FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST A FEW WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE SOUTHEAST. BELIEVE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY...WITH
A FEW MORE CLOUDS BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT
A WARM FRONT WILL THEN DEVELOP AND APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY. AS
A RESULT...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE 70S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...WITH 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. AS THE HIGH PUSHES EAST ON SUNDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONVECTION IS OVER FOR THE OVERNIGHT...SO THE ONLY RESTRICTIONS TO
NOCTURNAL AND EARLY WED MORNING AVIATION IS DENSE VALLEY FOG WHICH
MAY AFFECT THE CRW AND EKN RUNWAYS.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY
WED WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN. ANY
THUNDERSTORM WED AFTERNOON AND WED NT COULD PRODUCE IFR CONDITIONS
AND VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS. DENSE POST RAIN NOCTURNAL VALLEY FOG IS
AGAIN LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THUNDERSTORMS WED NT.
SFC FLOW WILL CONTINUE LIGHT S TO SW AT NT...BECOMING A BIT GUSTY
OUTSIDE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY WED. LIGHT TO MODERATE SW FLOW
ALOFT OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME S TO SW WED.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF DENSE VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT
COULD VARY...AS WELL AS TIMING AND DEGREE OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE
TO CONVECTION WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 05/22/13
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M M H M H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H M L L L L L M H M M H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M H H H H H
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED NT INTO THU MORNING IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND POST RAIN NOCTURNAL VALLEY FOG.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...TRM
000
FXUS61 KRLX 220555
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
156 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THURSDAY. COOLER
HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
130 AM UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES AS CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED FOR THE NT.
1030 PM UPDATE...CONVECTION WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AS IT DRIFTS NE. DECREASED POPS QUICKER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST AS
THE PRECIP ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TRICKY FCST FOR THIS AFTN REGARDING CONVECTION POTENTIAL. NOT
SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF DEVELOPMENT ALONG MORNING OUTFLOW LLVL
AS IT EXITS MTNS. MDL SOUNDINGS SHOW AREA LOSING CAP SHORTLY. WILL
ALLOW FOR ISO DEVELOPMENT IN N MTNS ON RIDGES WHERE
DEVELOPING S TO SE LLVL FLOW LATER THIS AFTN SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SHRA.
OF BIGGER CONCERN IS CONVECTIVE LINE GETTING GOING ACROSS S KY/TN
WITH SUBTLE S/W TROF. NAM...RUC...AND HI RES WRF MDLS ARE PICKING
UP ON THIS AND ALLOWING FOR IT TO GET INTO CWA LATE THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVE. WILL ALLOW FOR LKLY POPS TO ENCROACH USING
CONSENSUS SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND MID LVL OMEGA FIELDS FOR
GENERAL TIMING. HAVE THIS ENTERING W ZONES BY 22Z IF NOT A LITTLE
SOONER...INTO CENTRAL ZONES ARND 00Z...AND EXITING MTNS SHORTLY
AFTER 03Z. MDL SOUNDINGS SHOW MEAGER AMNTS OF MOISTURE WHICH IS
REALLY THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR. MDLS GENERATE 2 TO 3K ML CAPE THIS
AFTN WITH RELATIVELY LOW FRZ LVLS AMID STEEP LAPSE RATES. SO THERE
IS A HAIL CONCERN. GENERAL FLOW ALOFT IS RATHER WEAK...HOWEVER
THERE IS SOMEWHAT GREATER OF A CONCERN FOR DOWNBURSTS GIVEN SFC TO
H7 THETA DIFF AND AMNT OF DOWNDRAFT CAPE PROGGED. MDL SOUNDINGS
SHOW A DECENT LLVL DRY LYR TO CONTRIBUTE TO THIS. CODED UP SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WIND WORDING IN GRIDS. SPC ADDED W HALF OF CWA TO
SLIGHT RISK WITH IT 1630Z UPDATE.
THINGS QUITE DOWN TONIGHT. WITH NOTHING TO GRAB HOLD OF FOR
FORCING...ELECTED TO NIX POPS OVERNIGHT. SOME MID AND HI CLDS MAY
HAMPER FG DEVELOPMENT AND WILL DEPEND ON WHO RECEIVES RAINFALL. BL
WINDS ALSO INCREASE LATE WHICH MAY KEEP MUCH OF FG AT BAY...SAVE
FOR DEEPER HOLLOWS AND MTN VALLEYS.
THINGS TURN ACTIVE ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW AS UPR LVL TROF AMPLIFIES
ACROSS UPR MS VALLEY. HARD TO PINPOINT FORCING TO GRAB HOLD OF UNTIL
PREFRONTAL BANDS ENCROACH LATER IN AFTN. KEEP POPS IN CHC RANGE
UNTIL THEN. SPC CONT TO HIGHLIGHT A CHUNK OF CWA IN SLIGHT RISK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND HUMID
ON WEDNESDAY IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE AS HIGH AS ON TUESDAY...DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...AND
PRECIPITATION.
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THE
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH PUSHES CLOSER TO THE AREA. SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...AND MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. STILL LOOKING LIKE THERE COULD BE SEVERE
WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY...PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHEAST OHIO...EASTERN
KY...AND WV COUNTIES NEAR TO THE OHIO RIVER AS GOOD UPPER
DYNAMICS...INSTABILITY...AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 30+ KTS WILL EXIST.
STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS...AND HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY THREATS...WITH
FZLVS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 11K FEET. COLD FRONT WILL END UP
SOMEWHERE ALONG/NEAR SOUTHEAST OHIO ZONES BY 12Z THURSDAY.
UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...KEEPING A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
IS EXPECTED TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE CWA FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH BUILDS IN.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED WPC THINKING FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST A FEW WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE SOUTHEAST. BELIEVE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY...WITH
A FEW MORE CLOUDS BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT
A WARM FRONT WILL THEN DEVELOP AND APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY. AS
A RESULT...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE 70S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...WITH 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. AS THE HIGH PUSHES EAST ON SUNDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONVECTION IS OVER FOR THE OVERNIGHT...SO THE ONLY RESTRICTIONS TO
NOCTURNAL AND EARLY WED MORNING AVIATION IS DENSE VALLEY FOG WHICH
MAY AFFECT THE CRW AND EKN RUNWAYS.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY
WED WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN. ANY
THUNDERSTORM WED AFTERNOON AND WED NT COULD PRODUCE IFR CONDITIONS
AND VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS. DENSE POST RAIN NOCTURNAL VALLEY FOG IS
AGAIN LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THUNDERSTORMS WED NT.
SFC FLOW WILL CONTINUE LIGHT S TO SW AT NT...BECOMING A BIT GUSTY
OUTSIDE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY WED. LIGHT TO MODERATE SW FLOW
ALOFT OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME S TO SW WED.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF DENSE VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT
COULD VARY...AS WELL AS TIMING AND DEGREE OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE
TO CONVECTION WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 05/22/13
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M M H M H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H M L L L L L M H M M H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M H H H H H
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED NT INTO THU MORNING IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND POST RAIN NOCTURNAL VALLEY FOG.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ/30
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...TRM
000
FXUS61 KRLX 220241
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1041 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THURSDAY. COOLER
HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1030 PM UPDATE...CONVECTION WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AS IT DRIFTS NE. DECREASED POPS QUICKER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST AS
THE PRECIP ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TRICKY FCST FOR THIS AFTN REGARDING CONVECTION POTENTIAL. NOT
SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF DEVELOPMENT ALONG MORNING OUTFLOW LLVL
AS IT EXITS MTNS. MDL SOUNDINGS SHOW AREA LOSING CAP SHORTLY. WILL
ALLOW FOR ISO DEVELOPMENT IN N MTNS ON RIDGES WHERE
DEVELOPING S TO SE LLVL FLOW LATER THIS AFTN SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SHRA.
OF BIGGER CONCERN IS CONVECTIVE LINE GETTING GOING ACROSS S KY/TN
WITH SUBTLE S/W TROF. NAM...RUC...AND HI RES WRF MDLS ARE PICKING
UP ON THIS AND ALLOWING FOR IT TO GET INTO CWA LATE THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVE. WILL ALLOW FOR LKLY POPS TO ENCROACH USING
CONSENSUS SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND MID LVL OMEGA FIELDS FOR
GENERAL TIMING. HAVE THIS ENTERING W ZONES BY 22Z IF NOT A LITTLE
SOONER...INTO CENTRAL ZONES ARND 00Z...AND EXITING MTNS SHORTLY
AFTER 03Z. MDL SOUNDINGS SHOW MEAGER AMNTS OF MOISTURE WHICH IS
REALLY THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR. MDLS GENERATE 2 TO 3K ML CAPE THIS
AFTN WITH RELATIVELY LOW FRZ LVLS AMID STEEP LAPSE RATES. SO THERE
IS A HAIL CONCERN. GENERAL FLOW ALOFT IS RATHER WEAK...HOWEVER
THERE IS SOMEWHAT GREATER OF A CONCERN FOR DOWNBURSTS GIVEN SFC TO
H7 THETA DIFF AND AMNT OF DOWNDRAFT CAPE PROGGED. MDL SOUNDINGS
SHOW A DECENT LLVL DRY LYR TO CONTRIBUTE TO THIS. CODED UP SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WIND WORDING IN GRIDS. SPC ADDED W HALF OF CWA TO
SLIGHT RISK WITH IT 1630Z UPDATE.
THINGS QUITE DOWN TONIGHT. WITH NOTHING TO GRAB HOLD OF FOR
FORCING...ELECTED TO NIX POPS OVERNIGHT. SOME MID AND HI CLDS MAY
HAMPER FG DEVELOPMENT AND WILL DEPEND ON WHO RECEIVES RAINFALL. BL
WINDS ALSO INCREASE LATE WHICH MAY KEEP MUCH OF FG AT BAY...SAVE
FOR DEEPER HOLLOWS AND MTN VALLEYS.
THINGS TURN ACTIVE ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW AS UPR LVL TROF AMPLIFIES
ACROSS UPR MS VALLEY. HARD TO PINPOINT FORCING TO GRAB HOLD OF
UNTIL PREFRONTAL BANDS ENCROACH LATER IN AFTN. KEEP POPS IN CHC
RANGE UNTIL THEN. SPC CONT TO HIGHLIGHT A CHUNK OF CWA IN SLIGHT RISK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND HUMID
ON WEDNESDAY IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE AS HIGH AS ON TUESDAY...DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...AND
PRECIPITATION.
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THE
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH PUSHES CLOSER TO THE AREA. SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...AND MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. STILL LOOKING LIKE THERE COULD BE SEVERE
WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY...PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHEAST OHIO...EASTERN
KY...AND WV COUNTIES NEAR TO THE OHIO RIVER AS GOOD UPPER
DYNAMICS...INSTABILITY...AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 30+ KTS WILL EXIST.
STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS...AND HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY THREATS...WITH
FZLVS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 11K FEET. COLD FRONT WILL END UP
SOMEWHERE ALONG/NEAR SOUTHEAST OHIO ZONES BY 12Z THURSDAY.
UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...KEEPING A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
IS EXPECTED TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE CWA FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH BUILDS IN.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED WPC THINKING FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST A FEW WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE SOUTHEAST. BELIEVE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY...WITH
A FEW MORE CLOUDS BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT
A WARM FRONT WILL THEN DEVELOP AND APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY. AS
A RESULT...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE 70S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...WITH 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. AS THE HIGH PUSHES EAST ON SUNDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONVECTION CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY INTO WESTERN ZONES...AND HAVE
TEMPOS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AT HTS/CRW/BKW. FARTHER
NORTH...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS NOT LIKELY...BUT STILL HAVE SOME
VCTS AS CONVECTION MOVES NORTH AND WEAKENS. FOG IS A BIT TRICKY
TONIGHT...WITH SOME FLOW REMAINING. BUT AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN
SHOULD AT LEAST GET SOME FOG...ESPECIALLY IN MORE SHELTERED
VALLEYS. MAY NEED TO AMEND TO ADD DENSER FOG SHOULD FLOW NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECAST. ANY FOG THAT IS AROUND WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TOMORROW...AND
HAVE VCTS FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION INCREASES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING COULD VARY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND DENSITY
OF FOG OVERNIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 05/22/13
UTC 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
EDT 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M L L L L L M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M H
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...MZ/30
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...MZ
000
FXUS61 KRLX 212337
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
737 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
EVENING CONVECTION. COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY AND MOVES
ACROSS THURSDAY. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
420 PM UPDATE...ONGOING CONVECTION JUST ENTERING WESTERN
ZONES...FAIRLY WELL DEVELOPED COLD POOL WITH GUSTY WINDS AT THE
BOW MAKING ITS WAY INTO MINGO COUNTY WV. EXTENDED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH INTO PUTNAM/KANAWHA/FAYETTE COUNTIES. ADJUSTED
POPS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TRICKY FCST FOR THIS AFTN REGARDING CONVECTION POTENTIAL. NOT
SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF DEVELOPMENT ALONG MORNING OUTFLOW LLVL
AS IT EXITS MTNS. MDL SOUNDINGS SHOW AREA LOSING CAP SHORTLY. WILL
ALLOW FOR ISO DEVELOPMENT IN N MTNS ON RIDGES WHERE
DEVELOPING S TO SE LLVL FLOW LATER THIS AFTN SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SHRA.
OF BIGGER CONCERN IS CONVECTIVE LINE GETTING GOING ACROSS S KY/TN
WITH SUBTLE S/W TROF. NAM...RUC...AND HI RES WRF MDLS ARE PICKING
UP ON THIS AND ALLOWING FOR IT TO GET INTO CWA LATE THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVE. WILL ALLOW FOR LKLY POPS TO ENCROACH USING
CONSENSUS SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND MID LVL OMEGA FIELDS FOR
GENERAL TIMING. HAVE THIS ENTERING W ZONES BY 22Z IF NOT A LITTLE
SOONER...INTO CENTRAL ZONES ARND 00Z...AND EXITING MTNS SHORTLY
AFTER 03Z. MDL SOUNDINGS SHOW MEAGER AMNTS OF MOISTURE WHICH IS
REALLY THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR. MDLS GENERATE 2 TO 3K ML CAPE THIS
AFTN WITH RELATIVELY LOW FRZ LVLS AMID STEEP LAPSE RATES. SO THERE
IS A HAIL CONCERN. GENERAL FLOW ALOFT IS RATHER WEAK...HOWEVER
THERE IS SOMEWHAT GREATER OF A CONCERN FOR DOWNBURSTS GIVEN SFC TO
H7 THETA DIFF AND AMNT OF DOWNDRAFT CAPE PROGGED. MDL SOUNDINGS
SHOW A DECENT LLVL DRY LYR TO CONTRIBUTE TO THIS. CODED UP SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WIND WORDING IN GRIDS. SPC ADDED W HALF OF CWA TO
SLIGHT RISK WITH IT 1630Z UPDATE.
THINGS QUITE DOWN TONIGHT. WITH NOTHING TO GRAB HOLD OF FOR
FORCING...ELECTED TO NIX POPS OVERNIGHT. SOME MID AND HI CLDS MAY
HAMPER FG DEVELOPMENT AND WILL DEPEND ON WHO RECEIVES RAINFALL. BL
WINDS ALSO INCREASE LATE WHICH MAY KEEP MUCH OF FG AT BAY...SAVE
FOR DEEPER HOLLOWS AND MTN VALLEYS.
THINGS TURN ACTIVE ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW AS UPR LVL TROF AMPLIFIES
ACROSS UPR MS VALLEY. HARD TO PINPOINT FORCING TO GRAB HOLD OF
UNTIL PREFRONTAL BANDS ENCROACH LATER IN AFTN. KEEP POPS IN CHC
RANGE UNTIL THEN. SPC CONT TO HIGHLIGHT A CHUNK OF CWA IN SLIGHT RISK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND HUMID
ON WEDNESDAY IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE AS HIGH AS ON TUESDAY...DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...AND
PRECIPITATION.
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THE
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH PUSHES CLOSER TO THE AREA. SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...AND MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. STILL LOOKING LIKE THERE COULD BE SEVERE
WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY...PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHEAST OHIO...EASTERN
KY...AND WV COUNTIES NEAR TO THE OHIO RIVER AS GOOD UPPER
DYNAMICS...INSTABILITY...AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 30+ KTS WILL EXIST.
STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS...AND HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY THREATS...WITH
FZLVS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 11K FEET. COLD FRONT WILL END UP
SOMEWHERE ALONG/NEAR SOUTHEAST OHIO ZONES BY 12Z THURSDAY.
UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...KEEPING A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
IS EXPECTED TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE CWA FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH BUILDS IN.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED WPC THINKING FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST A FEW WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE SOUTHEAST. BELIEVE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY...WITH
A FEW MORE CLOUDS BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT
A WARM FRONT WILL THEN DEVELOP AND APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY. AS
A RESULT...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE 70S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...WITH 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. AS THE HIGH PUSHES EAST ON SUNDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONVECTION CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY INTO WESTERN ZONES...AND HAVE
TEMPOS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AT HTS/CRW/BKW. FARTHER
NORTH...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS NOT LIKELY...BUT STILL HAVE SOME
VCTS AS CONVECTION MOVES NORTH AND WEAKENS. FOG IS A BIT TRICKY
TONIGHT...WITH SOME FLOW REMAINING. BUT AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN
SHOULD AT LEAST GET SOME FOG...ESPECIALLY IN MORE SHELTERED
VALLEYS. MAY NEED TO AMEND TO ADD DENSER FOG SHOULD FLOW NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECAST. ANY FOG THAT IS AROUND WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TOMORROW...AND
HAVE VCTS FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION INCREASES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING COULD VARY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND DENSITY
OF FOG OVERNIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 05/22/13
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H M M M H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H M M M H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M L L L L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR WVZ024-025-
033-034.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...MZ/30
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...MZ
000
FXUS61 KRLX 212026
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
426 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
EVENING CONVECTION. COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY AND MOVES
ACROSS THURSDAY. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
420 PM UPDATE...ISSUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR OUR WETTEST COUNTIES
IN THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS OF WV INTO WESTERN VA. FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE RANGES FROM 1.0 TO ABOUT 1.5 INCHES IN AN HOUR...WHICH
BASED ON RADAR BASED RAINFALL ESTIMATES OF THE CONVECTION
CURRENTLY TO THE WEST DEFINITELY POSSIBLE. ALSO UPDATED TIMING OF
POPS WITH INCOMING CONVECTION BASED ON CURRENT CELL MOVEMENT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TRICKY FCST FOR THIS AFTN REGARDING CONVECTION POTENTIAL. NOT
SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF DEVELOPMENT ALONG MORNING OUTFLOW LLVL
AS IT EXITS MTNS. MDL SOUNDINGS SHOW AREA LOSING CAP SHORTLY. WILL
ALLOW FOR ISO DEVELOPMENT IN N MTNS ON RIDGES WHERE
DEVELOPING S TO SE LLVL FLOW LATER THIS AFTN SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SHRA.
OF BIGGER CONCERN IS CONVECTIVE LINE GETTING GOING ACROSS S KY/TN
WITH SUBTLE S/W TROF. NAM...RUC...AND HI RES WRF MDLS ARE PICKING
UP ON THIS AND ALLOWING FOR IT TO GET INTO CWA LATE THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVE. WILL ALLOW FOR LKLY POPS TO ENCROACH USING
CONSENSUS SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND MID LVL OMEGA FIELDS FOR
GENERAL TIMING. HAVE THIS ENTERING W ZONES BY 22Z IF NOT A LITTLE
SOONER...INTO CENTRAL ZONES ARND 00Z...AND EXITING MTNS SHORTLY
AFTER 03Z. MDL SOUNDINGS SHOW MEAGER AMNTS OF MOISTURE WHICH IS
REALLY THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR. MDLS GENERATE 2 TO 3K ML CAPE THIS
AFTN WITH RELATIVELY LOW FRZ LVLS AMID STEEP LAPSE RATES. SO THERE
IS A HAIL CONCERN. GENERAL FLOW ALOFT IS RATHER WEAK...HOWEVER
THERE IS SOMEWHAT GREATER OF A CONCERN FOR DOWNBURSTS GIVEN SFC TO
H7 THETA DIFF AND AMNT OF DOWNDRAFT CAPE PROGGED. MDL SOUNDINGS
SHOW A DECENT LLVL DRY LYR TO CONTRIBUTE TO THIS. CODED UP SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WIND WORDING IN GRIDS. SPC ADDED W HALF OF CWA TO
SLIGHT RISK WITH IT 1630Z UPDATE.
THINGS QUITE DOWN TONIGHT. WITH NOTHING TO GRAB HOLD OF FOR
FORCING...ELECTED TO NIX POPS OVERNIGHT. SOME MID AND HI CLDS MAY
HAMPER FG DEVELOPMENT AND WILL DEPEND ON WHO RECEIVES RAINFALL. BL
WINDS ALSO INCREASE LATE WHICH MAY KEEP MUCH OF FG AT BAY...SAVE
FOR DEEPER HOLLOWS AND MTN VALLEYS.
THINGS TURN ACTIVE ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW AS UPR LVL TROF AMPLIFIES
ACROSS UPR MS VALLEY. HARD TO PINPOINT FORCING TO GRAB HOLD OF
UNTIL PREFRONTAL BANDS ENCROACH LATER IN AFTN. KEEP POPS IN CHC
RANGE UNTIL THEN. SPC CONT TO HIGHLIGHT A CHUNK OF CWA IN SLIGHT RISK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND HUMID
ON WEDNESDAY IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE AS HIGH AS ON TUESDAY...DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...AND
PRECIPITATION.
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THE
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH PUSHES CLOSER TO THE AREA. SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...AND MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. STILL LOOKING LIKE THERE COULD BE SEVERE
WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY...PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHEAST OHIO...EASTERN
KY...AND WV COUNTIES NEAR TO THE OHIO RIVER AS GOOD UPPER
DYNAMICS...INSTABILITY...AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 30+ KTS WILL EXIST.
STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS...AND HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY THREATS...WITH
FZLVS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 11K FEET. COLD FRONT WILL END UP
SOMEWHERE ALONG/NEAR SOUTHEAST OHIO ZONES BY 12Z THURSDAY.
UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...KEEPING A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
IS EXPECTED TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE CWA FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH BUILDS IN.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED WPC THINKING FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST A FEW WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE SOUTHEAST. BELIEVE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY...WITH
A FEW MORE CLOUDS BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT
A WARM FRONT WILL THEN DEVELOP AND APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY. AS
A RESULT...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE 70S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...WITH 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. AS THE HIGH PUSHES EAST ON SUNDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WILL TRACK MID LVL WAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE.
A LINE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS AS IT CROSSES. HAVE
SOME TEMPO IFR TSRA GROUPS SOME OF TAF GROUPS...MAINLY
KHTS/KCRW/KBKW. UNTIL THEN MAINLY SCT LOW VFR BASE CU AMID SOME
CIRRUS. FOR TIMING...KHTS 22-00Z..KCRW 00-02Z...KBKW 00-03Z FOR
AREAS WHERE GREATEST CONFIDENCE IS.
ACTIVITY WANES AFTER 03Z WITH SCT TO BKN MID/HI CLDS. THIS
COMBINED WITH INCREASING BL WIND LATE MAY CONFINE DENSE FG TO
DEEPER HOLLOWS AND N MTN VALLEYS. AREAS THAT RECEIVE RA MAY TRY TO
FG EARLY THOUGH. WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR FG MOST TERMINALS WITH
IFR FG FOR KEKN.
ANY FG BURNS OFF BY 13Z WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR CU 15 TO 18Z BEFORE
BASES RISE INTO LOW END VFR. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BEGIN TO FORM
TOWARD END OF TAF PERIOD BUT LEFT OUT ATTM.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON COULD VARY. SOME TERMINALS MAY FG EARLY SHOULD THEY
RECEIVE RAIN.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR WVZ024-025-
033-034.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...MZ/30
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...30
000
FXUS61 KRLX 211841
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
241 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
EVENING CONVECTION. COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY AND MOVES
ACROSS THURSDAY. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TRICKY FCST FOR THIS AFTN REGARDING CONVECTION POTENTIAL. NOT
SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF DEVELOPMENT ALONG MORNING OUTFLOW LLVL
AS IT EXITS MTNS. MDL SOUNDINGS SHOW AREA LOSING CAP SHORTLY. WILL
ALLOW FOR ISO DEVELOPMENT IN N MTNS ON RIDGES WHERE
DEVELOPING S TO SE LLVL FLOW LATER THIS AFTN SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SHRA.
OF BIGGER CONCERN IS CONVECTIVE LINE GETTING GOING ACROSS S KY/TN
WITH SUBTLE S/W TROF. NAM...RUC...AND HI RES WRF MDLS ARE PICKING
UP ON THIS AND ALLOWING FOR IT TO GET INTO CWA LATE THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVE. WILL ALLOW FOR LKLY POPS TO ENCROACH USING
CONSENSUS SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND MID LVL OMEGA FIELDS FOR
GENERAL TIMING. HAVE THIS ENTERING W ZONES BY 22Z IF NOT A LITTLE
SOONER...INTO CENTRAL ZONES ARND 00Z...AND EXITING MTNS SHORTLY
AFTER 03Z. MDL SOUNDINGS SHOW MEAGER AMNTS OF MOISTURE WHICH IS
REALLY THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR. MDLS GENERATE 2 TO 3K ML CAPE THIS
AFTN WITH RELATIVELY LOW FRZ LVLS AMID STEEP LAPSE RATES. SO THERE
IS A HAIL CONCERN. GENERAL FLOW ALOFT IS RATHER WEAK...HOWEVER
THERE IS SOMEWHAT GREATER OF A CONCERN FOR DOWNBURSTS GIVEN SFC TO
H7 THETA DIFF AND AMNT OF DOWNDRAFT CAPE PROGGED. MDL SOUNDINGS
SHOW A DECENT LLVL DRY LYR TO CONTRIBUTE TO THIS. CODED UP SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WIND WORDING IN GRIDS. SPC ADDED W HALF OF CWA TO
SLIGHT RISK WITH IT 1630Z UPDATE.
THINGS QUITE DOWN TONIGHT. WITH NOTHING TO GRAB HOLD OF FOR
FORCING...ELECTED TO NIX POPS OVERNIGHT. SOME MID AND HI CLDS MAY
HAMPER FG DEVELOPMENT AND WILL DEPEND ON WHO RECEIVES RAINFALL. BL
WINDS ALSO INCREASE LATE WHICH MAY KEEP MUCH OF FG AT BAY...SAVE
FOR DEEPER HOLLOWS AND MTN VALLEYS.
THINGS TURN ACTIVE ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW AS UPR LVL TROF AMPLIFIES
ACROSS UPR MS VALLEY. HARD TO PINPOINT FORCING TO GRAB HOLD OF
UNTIL PREFRONTAL BANDS ENCROACH LATER IN AFTN. KEEP POPS IN CHC
RANGE UNTIL THEN. SPC CONT TO HIGHLIGHT A CHUNK OF CWA IN SLIGHT RISK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND HUMID
ON WEDNESDAY IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE AS HIGH AS ON TUESDAY...DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...AND
PRECIPITATION.
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THE
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH PUSHES CLOSER TO THE AREA. SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...AND MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. STILL LOOKING LIKE THERE COULD BE SEVERE
WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY...PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHEAST OHIO...EASTERN
KY...AND WV COUNTIES NEAR TO THE OHIO RIVER AS GOOD UPPER
DYNAMICS...INSTABILITY...AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 30+ KTS WILL EXIST.
STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS...AND HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY THREATS...WITH
FZLVS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 11K FEET. COLD FRONT WILL END UP
SOMEWHERE ALONG/NEAR SOUTHEAST OHIO ZONES BY 12Z THURSDAY.
UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...KEEPING A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
IS EXPECTED TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE CWA FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH BUILDS IN.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED WPC THINKING FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST A FEW WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE SOUTHEAST. BELIEVE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY...WITH
A FEW MORE CLOUDS BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT
A WARM FRONT WILL THEN DEVELOP AND APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY. AS
A RESULT...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE 70S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...WITH 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. AS THE HIGH PUSHES EAST ON SUNDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WILL TRACK MID LVL WAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE.
A LINE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS AS IT CROSSES. HAVE
SOME TEMPO IFR TSRA GROUPS SOME OF TAF GROUPS...MAINLY
KHTS/KCRW/KBKW. UNTIL THEN MAINLY SCT LOW VFR BASE CU AMID SOME
CIRRUS. FOR TIMING...KHTS 22-00Z..KCRW 00-02Z...KBKW 00-03Z FOR
AREAS WHERE GREATEST CONFIDENCE IS.
ACTIVITY WANES AFTER 03Z WITH SCT TO BKN MID/HI CLDS. THIS
COMBINED WITH INCREASING BL WIND LATE MAY CONFINE DENSE FG TO
DEEPER HOLLOWS AND N MTN VALLEYS. AREAS THAT RECEIVE RA MAY TRY TO
FG EARLY THOUGH. WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR FG MOST TERMINALS WITH
IFR FG FOR KEKN.
ANY FG BURNS OFF BY 13Z WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR CU 15 TO 18Z BEFORE
BASES RISE INTO LOW END VFR. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BEGIN TO FORM
TOWARD END OF TAF PERIOD BUT LEFT OUT ATTM.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON COULD VARY. SOME TERMINALS MAY FG EARLY SHOULD THEY
RECEIVE RAIN.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...30
000
FXUS61 KRLX 211518
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1118 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THURSDAY. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY AND
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1100 AM MESOSCALE UPDATE...
TRICKY FCST FOR THIS AFTN REGARDING CONVECTION POTENTIAL. AS OF
15Z...TRACKING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM LAST NIGHT CONVECTION THAT HAS
RACED E INTO W ZONES...CLOCKED ARND 50KTS. NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS LLVL CONVERGENCE ZONE CURRENTLY...WITH
MOST OF CU ACROSS SE KY AND SOME ACROSS S COAL FIELDS. MDL SOUNDINGS
SHOW AREA STILL CAPPED EXCEPT WEAKLY CAPPED ACROSS MTNS. WILL BRING
IN LOW POPS NEXT FEW HRS TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY AS CAP ERODES WITH HEATING. WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IN N MTNS ON RIDGES WHERE DEVELOPING S TO SE LLVL FLOW
THIS AFTN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME AFTN DEVELOPMENT.
OF BIGGER CONCERN IS CONVECTIVE LINE GETTING GOING ACROSS W KY
WITH SUBTLE S/W TROF. NAM...RUC...AND HI RES WRF MDLS ARE PICKING
UP ON THIS AND ALLOWING FOR IT TO GET INTO CWA LATER THIS AFTN.
WILL ALLOW FOR LKLY POPS TO ENCROACH USING CONSENSUS SFC MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND MID LVL OMEGA FIELDS FOR GENERAL TIMING. HAVE THIS
ENTERING W ZONES BY 20Z IF NOT A LITTLE SOONER...INTO CENTRAL
ZONES BY 22Z...AND EXITING MTNS SHORTLY AFTER BY 01Z. MDL
SOUNDINGS SHOW MEAGER AMNTS OF MOISTURE WHICH IS REALLY THE ONLY
LIMITING FACTOR. MDLS GENERATE 2 TO 3K SFC CAPE THIS AFTN WITH
RELATIVELY LOW FRZ LVLS AMID STEEP LAPSE RATES. SO THERE IS A HAIL
CONCERN. GENERAL FLOW ALOFT IS RATHER WEAK...HOWEVER THERE IS
SOMEWHAT GREATER OF A CONCERN FOR DOWNBURSTS GIVEN SFC TO H7 THETA
DIFF AND AMNT OF DOWNDRAFT CAPE PROGGED. MDL SOUNDINGS SHOW A
DECENT LLVL DRY LYR TO CONTRIBUTE TO THIS. CODED UP SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WIND WORDING IN GRIDS. SPC DOES NOT HAVE AREA HIGHLIGHTED
WITH ANYTHING ATTM THOUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND HUMID
ON WEDNESDAY IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE AS HIGH AS ON TUESDAY...DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...AND
PRECIPITATION.
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THE
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH PUSHES CLOSER TO THE AREA. SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...AND MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. STILL LOOKING LIKE THERE COULD BE SEVERE
WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY...PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHEAST OHIO...EASTERN
KY...AND WV COUNTIES NEAR TO THE OHIO RIVER AS GOOD UPPER
DYNAMICS...INSTABILITY...AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 30+ KTS WILL EXIST.
STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS...AND HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY THREATS...WITH
FZLVS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 11K FEET. COLD FRONT WILL END UP
SOMEWHERE ALONG/NEAR SOUTHEAST OHIO ZONES BY 12Z THURSDAY.
UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...KEEPING A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
IS EXPECTED TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE CWA FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH BUILDS IN.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED WPC THINKING FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST A FEW WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE SOUTHEAST. BELIEVE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY...WITH
A FEW MORE CLOUDS BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT
A WARM FRONT WILL THEN DEVELOP AND APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY. AS
A RESULT...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE 70S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...WITH 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. AS THE HIGH PUSHES EAST ON SUNDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING. CUMULUS CAN THEN BE
EXPECTED TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
PATCHY DENSE FOG CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT IN VALLEYS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND JUST WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVE SHOWERS TODAY. FURTHER WEST AND ON HILLTOPS...WINDS SHOULD
PREVENT THE DENSE FOG.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF FOG DISSIPATION COULD VARY. TIMING OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL
NEAR TERM...RPY/30
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...RPY
000
FXUS61 KRLX 211304
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
904 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THURSDAY. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY AND
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BIG QUESTION IS HOW WILL THE COMPLEX OVER IL/IN AFFECT OUR REGION
TODAY. NONE OF THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON THE
COMPLEX...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. MESO NAM AND SOME OTHER MODELS
SHOW A LINE OF CONVECTION FORMING OFF THE MOISTURE FROM THIS COMPLEX
AND MOVING EITHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...OR INTO THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. BASED ON THE MESO MODELS...WILL LOWER POPS
THIS MORNING...BUT RAISE POPS IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. GFS MOS
LOOKS TOO WARM FOR HIGHS TODAY...SO WENT CLOSER TO THE NAM MOS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND HUMID
ON WEDNESDAY IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE AS HIGH AS ON TUESDAY...DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...AND
PRECIPITATION.
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THE
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH PUSHES CLOSER TO THE AREA. SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...AND MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. STILL LOOKING LIKE THERE COULD BE SEVERE
WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY...PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHEAST OHIO...EASTERN
KY...AND WV COUNTIES NEAR TO THE OHIO RIVER AS GOOD UPPER
DYNAMICS...INSTABILITY...AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 30+ KTS WILL EXIST.
STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS...AND HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY THREATS...WITH
FZLVS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 11K FEET. COLD FRONT WILL END UP
SOMEWHERE ALONG/NEAR SOUTHEAST OHIO ZONES BY 12Z THURSDAY.
UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...KEEPING A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
IS EXPECTED TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE CWA FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH BUILDS IN.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED WPC THINKING FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST A FEW WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE SOUTHEAST. BELIEVE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY...WITH
A FEW MORE CLOUDS BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT
A WARM FRONT WILL THEN DEVELOP AND APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY. AS
A RESULT...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE 70S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...WITH 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. AS THE HIGH PUSHES EAST ON SUNDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING. CUMULUS CAN THEN BE
EXPECTED TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
PATCHY DENSE FOG CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT IN VALLEYS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND JUST WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVE SHOWERS TODAY. FURTHER WEST AND ON HILLTOPS...WINDS SHOULD
PREVENT THE DENSE FOG.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF FOG DISSIPATION COULD VARY. TIMING OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY L L H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...RPY
000
FXUS61 KRLX 211015
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
600 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THURSDAY. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY AND
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BIG QUESTION IS HOW WILL THE COMPLEX OVER IL/IN AFFECT OUR REGION
TODAY. NONE OF THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON THE
COMPLEX...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. MESO NAM AND SOME OTHER MODELS
SHOW A LINE OF CONVECTION FORMING OFF THE MOISTURE FROM THIS COMPLEX
AND MOVING EITHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...OR INTO THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. BASED ON THE MESO MODELS...WILL LOWER POPS
THIS MORNING...BUT RAISE POPS IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. GFS MOS
LOOKS TOO WARM FOR HIGHS TODAY...SO WENT CLOSER TO THE NAM MOS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND HUMID
ON WEDNESDAY IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE AS HIGH AS ON TUESDAY...DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...AND
PRECIPITATION.
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THE
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH PUSHES CLOSER TO THE AREA. SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...AND MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. STILL LOOKING LIKE THERE COULD BE SEVERE
WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY...PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHEAST OHIO...EASTERN
KY...AND WV COUNTIES NEAR TO THE OHIO RIVER AS GOOD UPPER
DYNAMICS...INSTABILITY...AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 30+ KTS WILL EXIST.
STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS...AND HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY THREATS...WITH
FZLVS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 11K FEET. COLD FRONT WILL END UP
SOMEWHERE ALONG/NEAR SOUTHEAST OHIO ZONES BY 12Z THURSDAY.
UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...KEEPING A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
IS EXPECTED TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE CWA FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH BUILDS IN.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED WPC THINKING FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHEAST
WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY....MAINLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT COUNTIES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BE IN CONTROL OF THE AREA INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY. ECMWF
SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
LEFT THESE CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING. CUMULUS CAN THEN BE
EXPECTED TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
PATCHY DENSE FOG CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT IN VALLEYS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND JUST WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVE SHOWERS TODAY. FURTHER WEST AND ON HILLTOPS...WINDS SHOULD
PREVENT THE DENSE FOG.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF FOG DISSIPATION COULD VARY. TIMING OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 05/21/13
UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...RPY
000
FXUS61 KRLX 210744
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
344 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THURSDAY. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY AND
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BIG QUESTION IS HOW WILL THE COMPLEX OVER IL/IN AFFECT OUR REGION
TODAY. NONE OF THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON THE
COMPLEX...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. MESO NAM AND SOME OTHER MODELS
SHOW A LINE OF CONVECTION FORMING OFF THE MOISTURE FROM THIS COMPLEX
AND MOVING EITHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...OR INTO THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. BASED ON THE MESO MODELS...WILL LOWER POPS
THIS MORNING...BUT RAISE POPS IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. GFS MOS
LOOKS TOO WARM FOR HIGHS TODAY...SO WENT CLOSER TO THE NAM MOS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND HUMID
ON WEDNESDAY IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE AS HIGH AS ON TUESDAY...DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...AND
PRECIPITATION.
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THE
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH PUSHES CLOSER TO THE AREA. SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...AND MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. STILL LOOKING LIKE THERE COULD BE SEVERE
WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY...PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHEAST OHIO...EASTERN
KY...AND WV COUNTIES NEAR TO THE OHIO RIVER AS GOOD UPPER
DYNAMICS...INSTABILITY...AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 30+ KTS WILL EXIST.
STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS...AND HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY THREATS...WITH
FZLVS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 11K FEET. COLD FRONT WILL END UP
SOMEWHERE ALONG/NEAR SOUTHEAST OHIO ZONES BY 12Z THURSDAY.
UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...KEEPING A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
IS EXPECTED TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE CWA FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH BUILDS IN.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED WPC THINKING FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHEAST
WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY....MAINLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT COUNTIES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BE IN CONTROL OF THE AREA INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY. ECMWF
SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
LEFT THESE CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PATCHY DENSE FOG CAN BE EXPECTED IN VALLEYS IN AND JUST WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS THAT RECEIVED RAIN TODAY. FURTHER WEST AND ON
HILLTOPS...WINDS SHOULD PREVENT THE DENSE FOG. CUMULUS CAN BE
EXPECTED TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MODERATE WITH FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN
HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SOME UNCERTAINTY ON FOG DENSITY AND COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT. TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD
VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 05/21/13
UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...RPY
000
FXUS61 KRLX 210714
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
302 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THURSDAY. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY AND
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BIG QUESTION IS HOW WILL THE COMPLEX OVER IL/IN AFFECT OUR REGION
TODAY. NONE OF THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON THE
COMPLEX...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. MESO NAM AND SOME OTHER MODELS
SHOW A LINE OF CONVECTION FORMING OFF THE MOISTURE FROM THIS COMPLEX
AND MOVING EITHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...OR INTO THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. BASED ON THE MESO MODELS...WILL LOWER POPS
THIS MORNING...BUT RAISE POPS IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. GFS MOS
LOOKS TOO WARM FOR HIGHS TODAY...SO WENT CLOSER TO THE NAM MOS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN WEATHER MAKER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT PASSING WEDNESDAY...AND THEN THE LINGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...MAIN FOCUS IS TO THE WEST...SO DECREASED POPS
SOME...HOWEVER WITH LOTS OF MOISTURE STILL HANGING AROUND COULD NOT
GO DRY SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY...WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING CONVECTION/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO OUR WEST
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY IN THE
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...NAM IS SHOWING 2000+ J/KG CAPE
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AROUND NOON...WITH 30-40KTS BULK SHEER AND
PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES. SHOULD SEE A ROUND OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE CWA. THE MOST LIKELY AREA OF CONCERN FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES TO BE ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF THE OHIO
RIVER FROM SE OHIO INTO NORTH CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. WILL CONTINUE
HWO MENTION FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL POTENTIAL. THE ACTUAL COLD
FRONT WILL NOT PASS UNTIL THURSDAY...SO POPS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE A WARM DAY...BUT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS SHOULD NOT
BE AS WARM AS TUESDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE.
BASED ON RECENT VERIFICATION STATS...BLENDED IN BIAS- CORRECTED
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED WPC THINKING FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHEAST
WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY....MAINLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT COUNTIES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BE IN CONTROL OF THE AREA INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY. ECMWF
SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
LEFT THESE CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PATCHY DENSE FOG CAN BE EXPECTED IN VALLEYS IN AND JUST WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS THAT RECEIVED RAIN TODAY. FURTHER WEST AND ON
HILLTOPS...WINDS SHOULD PREVENT THE DENSE FOG. CUMULUS CAN BE
EXPECTED TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MODERATE WITH FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN
HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SOME UNCERTAINTY ON FOG DENSITY AND COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT. TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD
VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 05/21/13
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/RPY
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...RPY
000
FXUS61 KRLX 210541
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
125 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERNIGHT. AFTERNOON CONVECTION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY AND MOVES ACROSS
THURSDAY. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
INTRODUCE AREAS OF FOG MAINLY OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND OVER TYGART RIVER AND KANAWHA RIVER
VALLEYS...AND THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS OF WEST VIRGINIA DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS CURVE. REMOVED ALL PCPN
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. MODELS SHOWING NO DISTURBANCES AT H5 WITHIN UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS NORTHEAST KY...OH...WV...AND PA. FOR
TUESDAY...AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
RADAR IMAGERY AT 18Z SHOWING SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE EASTERN HIGHER TERRAIN AT
THIS POINT. EXPECT THIS PRECIP TO CONTINUE EASTWARD AS THE S/W
TROUGH AND ASSOC VORT MAX RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAY/S PRECIP CONTINUES
EAST AS WELL. LATEST SFC OBS AND RUC13 CONTINUE TO DEPICT SOME SFC
CONVERGENCE WITH WEAK TROUGH ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON. BEST LLVL MOISTURE HAS PUSHED EASTWARD AND NEAR-TERM
CONVECTIVE MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WEST.
WILL HOWEVER GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
OUT HERE WITH JUST A PINCH OF LLVL MOISTURE STILL NOTED ON POINT
SOUNDINGS AND PWATS UP AROUND 1.2-1.4 INCHES.
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TODAY/S S/W TROUGH AND VORT MAX CONTINUE
EASTWARD. PRECIP WILL HAVE ENDED FOR MOST IF NOT ALL LOCATIONS BTWN
00Z-03Z TUE. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN PRECIP-FREE OVERNIGHT BUT
LATEST NWP GUIDANCE DEPICTING A 2-3KFT LAYER OF CONVECTIVE MOISTURE
PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES CENTERED AROUND 850MB AND AROUND 12Z
TUE. SIMULTANEOUSLY 850MB CONVERGENCE NOTED ACROSS THE I-79 CORRIDOR
AS WELL AND THUS WILL BRING IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THUNDER WITH
THIS FEATURE. INHERITED MINS IN THE LOW/MID 60S MOST LOWLAND
LOCATIONS LOOK GOOD. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/THUNDER MOST LOCATION DURING THE DAY...BUT THE BETTER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES SE OHIO ZONES BY AND AFTER 21Z AS
BETTER LLVL MOISTURE ARRIVES WITH DECENT SFC CONVERGENCE NOTED SAME
AREA. SHEAR IS WEAK AND THUS ORGANIZATION WILL BE AS WELL WITH
REGARD TO SEVERE POTENTIAL. BUT HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND
WITH SOME STRONG WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN WEATHER MAKER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT PASSING WEDNESDAY...AND THEN THE LINGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...MAIN FOCUS IS TO THE WEST...SO DECREASED POPS
SOME...HOWEVER WITH LOTS OF MOISTURE STILL HANGING AROUND COULD NOT
GO DRY SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY...WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING CONVECTION/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO OUR WEST
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY IN THE
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...NAM IS SHOWING 2000+ J/KG CAPE
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AROUND NOON...WITH 30-40KTS BULK SHEER AND
PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES. SHOULD SEE A ROUND OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE CWA. THE MOST LIKELY AREA OF CONCERN FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES TO BE ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF THE OHIO
RIVER FROM SE OHIO INTO NORTH CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. WILL CONTINUE
HWO MENTION FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL POTENTIAL. THE ACTUAL COLD
FRONT WILL NOT PASS UNTIL THURSDAY...SO POPS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE A WARM DAY...BUT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS SHOULD NOT
BE AS WARM AS TUESDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE.
BASED ON RECENT VERIFICATION STATS...BLENDED IN BIAS- CORRECTED
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED WPC THINKING FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHEAST
WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY....MAINLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT COUNTIES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BE IN CONTROL OF THE AREA INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY. ECMWF
SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
LEFT THESE CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PATCHY DENSE FOG CAN BE EXPECTED IN VALLEYS IN AND JUST WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS THAT RECEIVED RAIN TODAY. FURTHER WEST AND ON
HILLTOPS...WINDS SHOULD PREVENT THE DENSE FOG. CUMULUS CAN BE
EXPECTED TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MODERATE WITH FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN
HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SOME UNCERTAINTY ON FOG DENSITY AND COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT. TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD
VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 05/21/13
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...ARJ/50
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...RPY
000
FXUS61 KRLX 210143
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
943 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER RIDGE ALOFT TONIGHT. AFTERNOON CONVECTION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY AND MOVES ACROSS
THURSDAY. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INTRODUCE AREAS OF FOG MAINLY OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND OVER TYGART RIVER AND KANAWHA RIVER
VALLEYS...AND THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS OF WEST VIRGINIA DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS CURVE. REMOVED ALL PCPN
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. MODELS SHOWING NO DISTURBANCES AT H5 WITHIN UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS NORTHEAST KY...OH...WV...AND PA. FOR
TUESDAY...AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
RADAR IMAGERY AT 18Z SHOWING SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE EASTERN HIGHER TERRAIN AT
THIS POINT. EXPECT THIS PRECIP TO CONTINUE EASTWARD AS THE S/W
TROUGH AND ASSOC VORT MAX RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAY/S PRECIP CONTINUES
EAST AS WELL. LATEST SFC OBS AND RUC13 CONTINUE TO DEPICT SOME SFC
CONVERGENCE WITH WEAK TROUGH ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON. BEST LLVL MOISTURE HAS PUSHED EASTWARD AND NEAR-TERM
CONVECTIVE MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WEST.
WILL HOWEVER GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
OUT HERE WITH JUST A PINCH OF LLVL MOISTURE STILL NOTED ON POINT
SOUNDINGS AND PWATS UP AROUND 1.2-1.4 INCHES.
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TODAY/S S/W TROUGH AND VORT MAX CONTINUE
EASTWARD. PRECIP WILL HAVE ENDED FOR MOST IF NOT ALL LOCATIONS BTWN
00Z-03Z TUE. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN PRECIP-FREE OVERNIGHT BUT
LATEST NWP GUIDANCE DEPICTING A 2-3KFT LAYER OF CONVECTIVE MOISTURE
PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES CENTERED AROUND 850MB AND AROUND 12Z
TUE. SIMULTANEOUSLY 850MB CONVERGENCE NOTED ACROSS THE I-79 CORRIDOR
AS WELL AND THUS WILL BRING IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THUNDER WITH
THIS FEATURE. INHERITED MINS IN THE LOW/MID 60S MOST LOWLAND
LOCATIONS LOOK GOOD. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/THUNDER MOST LOCATION DURING THE DAY...BUT THE BETTER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES SE OHIO ZONES BY AND AFTER 21Z AS
BETTER LLVL MOISTURE ARRIVES WITH DECENT SFC CONVERGENCE NOTED SAME
AREA. SHEAR IS WEAK AND THUS ORGANIZATION WILL BE AS WELL WITH
REGARD TO SEVERE POTENTIAL. BUT HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND
WITH SOME STRONG WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN WEATHER MAKER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT PASSING WEDNESDAY...AND THEN THE LINGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...MAIN FOCUS IS TO THE WEST...SO DECREASED POPS
SOME...HOWEVER WITH LOTS OF MOISTURE STILL HANGING AROUND COULD NOT
GO DRY SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY...WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING CONVECTION/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO OUR WEST
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY IN THE
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...NAM IS SHOWING 2000+ J/KG CAPE
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AROUND NOON...WITH 30-40KTS BULK SHEER AND
PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES. SHOULD SEE A ROUND OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE CWA. THE MOST LIKELY AREA OF CONCERN FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES TO BE ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF THE OHIO
RIVER FROM SE OHIO INTO NORTH CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. WILL CONTINUE
HWO MENTION FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL POTENTIAL. THE ACTUAL COLD
FRONT WILL NOT PASS UNTIL THURSDAY...SO POPS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE A WARM DAY...BUT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS SHOULD NOT
BE AS WARM AS TUESDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE.
BASED ON RECENT VERIFICATION STATS...BLENDED IN BIAS- CORRECTED
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED WPC THINKING FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHEAST
WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY....MAINLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT COUNTIES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BE IN CONTROL OF THE AREA INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY. ECMWF
SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
LEFT THESE CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT. MVFR LOW
STRATUS OR IFR FOG MAY DEVELOP ALONG CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS WHERE IT RAINED DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. IFR FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TYGART RIVER BASIN
INCLUDING EKN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF
IFR/LIFR FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE KANAWHA AND ELK RIVER
VALLEYS TOWARD DAWN.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TUESDAY MORNING...WITH AFTERNOON IFR
CONDITIONS UNDER HEAVY RAIN CAUSED BY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
STORMS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SOME UNCERTAINTY ON FOG DENSITY...LOW STRATUS...AND
AREAL COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING TUESDAY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 05/21/13
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L L L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M H
AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...ARJ/50
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...ARJ
000
FXUS61 KRLX 201849
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
249 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY EXITS EAST TONIGHT. COLD FRONT APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THURSDAY. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY
AND THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY AT 18Z SHOWING SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE EASTERN HIGHER TERRAIN AT THIS
POINT. EXPECT THIS PRECIP TO CONTINUE EASTWARD AS THE S/W TROUGH AND
ASSOC VORT MAX RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAY/S PRECIP CONTINUES EAST AS
WELL. LATEST SFC OBS AND RUC13 CONTINUE TO DEPICT SOME SFC
CONVERGENCE WITH WEAK TROUGH ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON. BEST LLVL MOISTURE HAS PUSHED EASTWARD AND NEAR-TERM
CONVECTIVE MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WEST.
WILL HOWEVER GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
OUT HERE WITH JUST A PINCH OF LLVL MOISTURE STILL NOTED ON POINT
SOUNDINGS AND PWATS UP AROUND 1.2-1.4 INCHES.
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TODAY/S S/W TROUGH AND VORT MAX CONTINUE
EASTWARD. PRECIP WILL HAVE ENDED FOR MOST IF NOT ALL LOCATIONS BTWN
00Z-03Z TUE. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN PRECIP-FREE OVERNIGHT BUT
LATEST NWP GUIDANCE DEPICTING A 2-3KFT LAYER OF CONVECTIVE MOISTURE
PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES CENTERED AROUND 850MB AND AROUND 12Z
TUE. SIMULTANEOUSLY 850MB CONVERGENCE NOTED ACROSS THE I-79 CORRIDOR
AS WELL AND THUS WILL BRING IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THUNDER WITH
THIS FEATURE. INHERITED MINS IN THE LOW/MID 60S MOST LOWLAND
LOCATIONS LOOK GOOD. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/THUNDER MOST LOCATION DURING THE DAY...BUT THE BETTER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES SE OHIO ZONES BY AND AFTER 21Z AS
BETTER LLVL MOISTURE ARRIVES WITH DECENT SFC CONVERGENCE NOTED SAME
AREA. SHEAR IS WEAK AND THUS ORGANIZATION WILL BE AS WELL WITH
REGARD TO SEVERE POTENTIAL. BUT HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND
WITH SOME STRONG WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN WEATHER MAKER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT PASSING WEDNESDAY...AND THEN THE LINGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...MAIN FOCUS IS TO THE WEST...SO DECREASED POPS
SOME...HOWEVER WITH LOTS OF MOISTURE STILL HANGING AROUND COULD NOT
GO DRY SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY...WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING CONVECTION/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO OUR WEST
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY IN THE
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...NAM IS SHOWING 2000+ J/KG CAPE
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AROUND NOON...WITH 30-40KTS BULK SHEER AND
PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES. SHOULD SEE A ROUND OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE CWA. THE MOST LIKELY AREA OF CONCERN FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES TO BE ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF THE OHIO
RIVER FROM SE OHIO INTO NORTH CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. WILL CONTINUE
HWO MENTION FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL POTENTIAL. THE ACTUAL COLD
FRONT WILL NOT PASS UNTIL THURSDAY...SO POPS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE A WARM DAY...BUT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS SHOULD NOT
BE AS WARM AS TUESDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE.
BASED ON RECENT VERIFICATION STATS...BLENDED IN BIAS- CORRECTED
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED WPC THINKING FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHEAST
WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY....MAINLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT COUNTIES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BE IN CONTROL OF THE AREA INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY. ECMWF
SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
LEFT THESE CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR TO LOW VFR CIGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA CURRENTLY SHOULD
SCATTER WEST TO EAST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS THE LAST OF
THE PRECIP CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD. VIS MAY ONCE AGAIN BECOME AN
ISSUE OVERNIGHT AND TOWARDS DAWN...PARTICULARLY AT LOCATIONS WHICH
RECEIVED RAINFALL TODAY SUCH AS CRW AND EKN. EARLY MORNING REDUCED
VIS/LOW STRATUS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS BY
MID-MORNING. WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE S/SW THROUGH
THE VALID PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SOME UNCERTAINTY ON FOG DENSITY...LOW STRATUS...AND
AREAL COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING TUESDAY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/MZ/50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...50
000
FXUS61 KRLX 201755
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
155 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY PASSES TODAY. NEW FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THURSDAY. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
130 PM UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO PUSH EASTWARD WITH
S/W TROUGH AND VORT MAX...AND WEAKEN AS THEY PUSH INTO REGION WITH
LESS INSTABILITY. LOWERED MAX TEMPS JUST A BIT MAINLY ACROSS
EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED CLOUD COVER...BUT WITH
SOME BREAKS IN THOSE CLOUDS FURTHER WEST...HESITANT TO LOWER THOSE
TEMPS TOO MUCH ACROSS CENTRAL CWA WHERE SOME LATE DAY SUN MAY
RESULT IN A QUICK BUMP IN TEMPS PRIOR TO 21Z-22Z. ALSO ALLOWING
FOR FLASH FLOOD WARNING TO EXPIRE JUST BEFORE TOP OF THE HOUR WITH
HEAVY RAINS ENDING IN THOSE LOCATIONS WITH SMALL STREAMS BEGINNING
TO RECEDE.
PREV DISCUSSION...
5H RIDGE AXIS TO NUDGE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERAL FORECASTED TRENDS ARE ON TRACK. LOW TO
MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST TODAY WITH
DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN CONTINUING ON WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF UPPER RIDGE. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ALONG A LINE FROM KEKN
TO KBKW AND POINTS TO THE EAST FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRY AIR WILL THEN WORK ITS WAY
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT...BRINGING AN EARLIER END TO
MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WE HAVE SEEN FOR
THE PAST FEW DAYS. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
TEMP TRENDS AS VALUES REMAIN ON TRACK WITH EXPECTED TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THE PERIOD...AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AS
A RESULT...EXPECTING RATHER WARM TEMPERATURES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION IN THE SHORT TERM...PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY...WHEN 500MB
HEIGHTS AROUND 582DAM AND 850MB TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND 17-18C.
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY TO RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S FOR MANY LOCATIONS...AND THIS COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WILL MAKE FOR A SOMEWHAT UNPLEASANT
DAY. WITH THE HUMID...UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE...STILL EXPECT A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN DAYTIME HEATING...DESPITE
UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE.
ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO A COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW...WHICH WILL ENTER SOUTHEAST OHIO BY THURSDAY
MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS
WILL HELP TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH
COULD BE STRONG...PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHEAST OHIO/EASTERN KY/WV
COUNTIES NEAR TO THE OHIO RIVER. MODELS INDICATING 0-6KM SHEAR OF
AROUND 30+ KTS...AND A FREEZING LEVEL OF AROUND 10-11K FEET. HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE FACTORS WITH ANY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP. WILL PUT A MENTION OF SEVERE INTO THE HWO. OF
COURSE...CLOUD COVER...AND ANY CHANGES IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MAY END UP MITIGATING THE THREAT.
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY...WHICH WILL FINALLY USHER IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED WPC THINKING FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHEAST
WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY....MAINLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT COUNTIES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BE IN CONTROL OF THE AREA INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY. ECMWF
SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
LEFT THESE CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR TO LOW VFR CIGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA CURRENTLY SHOULD
SCATTER WEST TO EAST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS THE LAST OF
THE PRECIP CONTIUES TO PUSH EASTWARD. VIS MAY ONCE AGAIN BECOME AN
ISSUE OVERNIGHT AND TOWARDS DAWN...PARTICULARLY AT LOCATIONS WHICH
RECEIVED RAINFALL TODAY SUCH AS CRW AND EKN. EARLY MORNING REDUCED
VIS/LOW STRATUS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDTIONS BY
MID-MORNING. WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE S/SW THROUGH
THE VALID PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SOME UNCERTAINTY ON FOG DENSITY...LOW
STRATUS...AND AREAL COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING TUESDAY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/SL
NEAR TERM...KMC/50
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...50
| 
