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000
FXUS61 KRLX 221603
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1103 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY...INCREASING SUNDAY FOR A WARMER
BUT WET WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11AM UPDATE...ALLOWED FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS TEMPS
ARE QUICKLY CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE A SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING TOWARDS WV AND
TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID TEENS. HRRR HAS THE SLUG DRYING OUT
EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF SE OHIO...SO WENT WITH A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE PRECIP WILL BE FALLING INTO A
COLD AIR MASS. OBSERVATION IN PERRY COUNTY AT 27 SO OPTED TO LEAVE
THEM OUT AS THE WARM AIR EXTENDS TO ABOUT PERRY CNTY. AFTER 9 AM
TEMPS SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND THE FZRA THREAT WILL BE
GONE.

THEN A PLEASANT DRY...DAY WHERE TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE WIND FLOW WILL TURN DEEP FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST...TO BRING MOIST AND WARM AIR MASS ON SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL MERGE FROM THIS FLOW TO PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN SPREADING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE BY 00Z MONDAY...AS SUGGESTED BY H850 WINDS
FROM THE GFS/ECMWF OF ABOUT 65-70 KNOTS. UNDER ISENTROPIC
UP GLIDING...IT WILL BE MORE LIKELY FOR SOME OF THESE WINDS TO
CREATE GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH H850
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS.
PW AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE
A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.
COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY
06 TUESDAY.

WENT CLOSE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO END ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND
MOVES EAST.  MODEL TRENDS HAVE WAFFLED A BIT WITH NEITHER THE GFS
AND ECMWF STAYING WITH A GREAT SOLUTION.  SHORTWAVES ARE MORE
EVIDENT IN DEEPER TROUGH EXHIBITED BY THE ECMWF...BUT THE GFS
CURRENTLY SHOWS A MORE WESTERN FLOW.  TOOK A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS
TO RESOLVE SOME OF THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE HOPES THE SOLUTIONS WILL
CONVERGE AS WE MOVE CLOSER IN TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT.  THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EARLY
THURSDAY...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS.  THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET VFR WEATHER. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN
INTERIOR SE OHIO SAT MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS INTERIOR SE OHIO
SAT MORNING AND THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS LATE SUN INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...MZ/JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW








000
FXUS61 KRLX 221603
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1103 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY...INCREASING SUNDAY FOR A WARMER
BUT WET WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11AM UPDATE...ALLOWED FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS TEMPS
ARE QUICKLY CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE A SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING TOWARDS WV AND
TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID TEENS. HRRR HAS THE SLUG DRYING OUT
EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF SE OHIO...SO WENT WITH A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE PRECIP WILL BE FALLING INTO A
COLD AIR MASS. OBSERVATION IN PERRY COUNTY AT 27 SO OPTED TO LEAVE
THEM OUT AS THE WARM AIR EXTENDS TO ABOUT PERRY CNTY. AFTER 9 AM
TEMPS SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND THE FZRA THREAT WILL BE
GONE.

THEN A PLEASANT DRY...DAY WHERE TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE WIND FLOW WILL TURN DEEP FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST...TO BRING MOIST AND WARM AIR MASS ON SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL MERGE FROM THIS FLOW TO PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN SPREADING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE BY 00Z MONDAY...AS SUGGESTED BY H850 WINDS
FROM THE GFS/ECMWF OF ABOUT 65-70 KNOTS. UNDER ISENTROPIC
UP GLIDING...IT WILL BE MORE LIKELY FOR SOME OF THESE WINDS TO
CREATE GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH H850
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS.
PW AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE
A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.
COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY
06 TUESDAY.

WENT CLOSE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO END ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND
MOVES EAST.  MODEL TRENDS HAVE WAFFLED A BIT WITH NEITHER THE GFS
AND ECMWF STAYING WITH A GREAT SOLUTION.  SHORTWAVES ARE MORE
EVIDENT IN DEEPER TROUGH EXHIBITED BY THE ECMWF...BUT THE GFS
CURRENTLY SHOWS A MORE WESTERN FLOW.  TOOK A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS
TO RESOLVE SOME OF THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE HOPES THE SOLUTIONS WILL
CONVERGE AS WE MOVE CLOSER IN TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT.  THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EARLY
THURSDAY...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS.  THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET VFR WEATHER. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN
INTERIOR SE OHIO SAT MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS INTERIOR SE OHIO
SAT MORNING AND THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS LATE SUN INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...MZ/JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW









000
FXUS61 KRLX 221328
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
828 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY...INCREASING SUNDAY FOR A WARMER
BUT WET WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
820 AM UPDATE...WARM ADVECTION A BIT SLOWER TO PICK UP THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...SO LOWERED TEMPS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
THIS ALSO PROMPTED AN EXTENSION OF THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
UNTIL 11 AM. HAVE RECEIVED A COUPLE CALLS FROM MORGAN COUNTY OHIO OF
FREEZING RAIN WITH ICE ON ROADS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE A SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING TOWARDS WV AND
TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID TEENS. HRRR HAS THE SLUG DRYING OUT
EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF SE OHIO...SO WENT WITH A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE PRECIP WILL BE FALLING INTO A
COLD AIR MASS. OBSERVATION IN PERRY COUNTY AT 27 SO OPTED TO LEAVE
THEM OUT AS THE WARM AIR EXTENDS TO ABOUT PERRY CNTY. AFTER 9 AM
TEMPS SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND THE FZRA THREAT WILL BE
GONE.

THEN A PLEASANT DRY...DAY WHERE TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE WIND FLOW WILL TURN DEEP FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST...TO BRING MOIST AND WARM AIR MASS ON SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL MERGE FROM THIS FLOW TO PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN SPREADING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE BY 00Z MONDAY...AS SUGGESTED BY H850 WINDS
FROM THE GFS/ECMWF OF ABOUT 65-70 KNOTS. UNDER ISENTROPIC
UP GLIDING...IT WILL BE MORE LIKELY FOR SOME OF THESE WINDS TO
CREATE GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH H850
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS.
PW AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE
A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.
COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY
06 TUESDAY.

WENT CLOSE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO END ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND
MOVES EAST.  MODEL TRENDS HAVE WAFFLED A BIT WITH NEITHER THE GFS
AND ECMWF STAYING WITH A GREAT SOLUTION.  SHORTWAVES ARE MORE
EVIDENT IN DEEPER TROUGH EXHIBITED BY THE ECMWF...BUT THE GFS
CURRENTLY SHOWS A MORE WESTERN FLOW.  TOOK A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS
TO RESOLVE SOME OF THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE HOPES THE SOLUTIONS WILL
CONVERGE AS WE MOVE CLOSER IN TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT.  THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EARLY
THURSDAY...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS.  THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET VFR WEATHER. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN
INTERIOR SE OHIO SAT MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS INTERIOR SE OHIO
SAT MORNING AND THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS LATE SUN INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ009.
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>086.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...MZ/JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW









000
FXUS61 KRLX 221328
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
828 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY...INCREASING SUNDAY FOR A WARMER
BUT WET WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
820 AM UPDATE...WARM ADVECTION A BIT SLOWER TO PICK UP THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...SO LOWERED TEMPS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
THIS ALSO PROMPTED AN EXTENSION OF THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
UNTIL 11 AM. HAVE RECEIVED A COUPLE CALLS FROM MORGAN COUNTY OHIO OF
FREEZING RAIN WITH ICE ON ROADS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE A SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING TOWARDS WV AND
TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID TEENS. HRRR HAS THE SLUG DRYING OUT
EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF SE OHIO...SO WENT WITH A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE PRECIP WILL BE FALLING INTO A
COLD AIR MASS. OBSERVATION IN PERRY COUNTY AT 27 SO OPTED TO LEAVE
THEM OUT AS THE WARM AIR EXTENDS TO ABOUT PERRY CNTY. AFTER 9 AM
TEMPS SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND THE FZRA THREAT WILL BE
GONE.

THEN A PLEASANT DRY...DAY WHERE TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE WIND FLOW WILL TURN DEEP FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST...TO BRING MOIST AND WARM AIR MASS ON SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL MERGE FROM THIS FLOW TO PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN SPREADING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE BY 00Z MONDAY...AS SUGGESTED BY H850 WINDS
FROM THE GFS/ECMWF OF ABOUT 65-70 KNOTS. UNDER ISENTROPIC
UP GLIDING...IT WILL BE MORE LIKELY FOR SOME OF THESE WINDS TO
CREATE GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH H850
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS.
PW AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE
A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.
COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY
06 TUESDAY.

WENT CLOSE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO END ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND
MOVES EAST.  MODEL TRENDS HAVE WAFFLED A BIT WITH NEITHER THE GFS
AND ECMWF STAYING WITH A GREAT SOLUTION.  SHORTWAVES ARE MORE
EVIDENT IN DEEPER TROUGH EXHIBITED BY THE ECMWF...BUT THE GFS
CURRENTLY SHOWS A MORE WESTERN FLOW.  TOOK A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS
TO RESOLVE SOME OF THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE HOPES THE SOLUTIONS WILL
CONVERGE AS WE MOVE CLOSER IN TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT.  THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EARLY
THURSDAY...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS.  THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET VFR WEATHER. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN
INTERIOR SE OHIO SAT MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS INTERIOR SE OHIO
SAT MORNING AND THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS LATE SUN INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ009.
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>086.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...MZ/JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW








000
FXUS61 KRLX 221148
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
648 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY...INCREASING SUNDAY FOR A WARMER
BUT WET WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ADDED PERRY COUNTY UNDER FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM.

LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE A SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING TOWARDS WV AND
TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID TEENS. HRRR HAS THE SLUG DRYING OUT
EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF SE OHIO...SO WENT WITH A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE PRECIP WILL BE FALLING INTO A
COLD AIR MASS. OBSERVATION IN PERRY COUNTY AT 27 SO OPTED TO LEAVE
THEM OUT AS THE WARM AIR EXTENDS TO ABOUT PERRY CNTY. AFTER 9 AM
TEMPS SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND THE FZRA THREAT WILL BE
GONE.

THEN A PLEASANT DRY...DAY WHERE TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE WIND FLOW WILL TURN DEEP FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST...TO BRING MOIST AND WARM AIR MASS ON SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL MERGE FROM THIS FLOW TO PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN SPREADING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE BY 00Z MONDAY...AS SUGGESTED BY H850 WINDS
FROM THE GFS/ECMWF OF ABOUT 65-70 KNOTS. UNDER ISENTROPIC
UP GLIDING...IT WILL BE MORE LIKELY FOR SOME OF THESE WINDS TO
CREATE GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH H850
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS.
PW AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE
A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.
COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY
06 TUESDAY.

WENT CLOSE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO END ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND
MOVES EAST.  MODEL TRENDS HAVE WAFFLED A BIT WITH NEITHER THE GFS
AND ECMWF STAYING WITH A GREAT SOLUTION.  SHORTWAVES ARE MORE
EVIDENT IN DEEPER TROUGH EXHIBITED BY THE ECMWF...BUT THE GFS
CURRENTLY SHOWS A MORE WESTERN FLOW.  TOOK A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS
TO RESOLVE SOME OF THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE HOPES THE SOLUTIONS WILL
CONVERGE AS WE MOVE CLOSER IN TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT.  THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EARLY
THURSDAY...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS.  THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET VFR WEATHER. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN
INTERIOR SE OHIO SAT MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS INTERIOR SE OHIO
SAT MORNING AND THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EST 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS LATE SUN INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ009.
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>086.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW








000
FXUS61 KRLX 221148
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
648 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY...INCREASING SUNDAY FOR A WARMER
BUT WET WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ADDED PERRY COUNTY UNDER FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM.

LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE A SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING TOWARDS WV AND
TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID TEENS. HRRR HAS THE SLUG DRYING OUT
EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF SE OHIO...SO WENT WITH A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE PRECIP WILL BE FALLING INTO A
COLD AIR MASS. OBSERVATION IN PERRY COUNTY AT 27 SO OPTED TO LEAVE
THEM OUT AS THE WARM AIR EXTENDS TO ABOUT PERRY CNTY. AFTER 9 AM
TEMPS SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND THE FZRA THREAT WILL BE
GONE.

THEN A PLEASANT DRY...DAY WHERE TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE WIND FLOW WILL TURN DEEP FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST...TO BRING MOIST AND WARM AIR MASS ON SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL MERGE FROM THIS FLOW TO PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN SPREADING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE BY 00Z MONDAY...AS SUGGESTED BY H850 WINDS
FROM THE GFS/ECMWF OF ABOUT 65-70 KNOTS. UNDER ISENTROPIC
UP GLIDING...IT WILL BE MORE LIKELY FOR SOME OF THESE WINDS TO
CREATE GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH H850
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS.
PW AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE
A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.
COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY
06 TUESDAY.

WENT CLOSE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO END ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND
MOVES EAST.  MODEL TRENDS HAVE WAFFLED A BIT WITH NEITHER THE GFS
AND ECMWF STAYING WITH A GREAT SOLUTION.  SHORTWAVES ARE MORE
EVIDENT IN DEEPER TROUGH EXHIBITED BY THE ECMWF...BUT THE GFS
CURRENTLY SHOWS A MORE WESTERN FLOW.  TOOK A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS
TO RESOLVE SOME OF THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE HOPES THE SOLUTIONS WILL
CONVERGE AS WE MOVE CLOSER IN TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT.  THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EARLY
THURSDAY...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS.  THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET VFR WEATHER. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN
INTERIOR SE OHIO SAT MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS INTERIOR SE OHIO
SAT MORNING AND THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EST 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS LATE SUN INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ009.
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>086.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW









000
FXUS61 KRLX 220958
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
458 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY...INCREASING SUNDAY FOR A WARMER
BUT WET WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE A SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING TOWARDS WV AND
TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID TEENS. HRRR HAS THE SLUG DRYING OUT
EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF SE OHIO...SO WENT WITH A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE PRECIP WILL BE FALLING INTO A
COLD AIR MASS. OBSERVATION IN PERRY COUNTY AT 27 SO OPTED TO LEAVE
THEM OUT AS THE WARM AIR EXTENDS TO ABOUT PERRY CNTY. AFTER 9 AM
TEMPS SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND THE FZRA THREAT WILL BE
GONE.

THEN A PLEASANT DRY...DAY WHERE TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE WIND FLOW WILL TURN DEEP FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST...TO BRING MOIST AND WARM AIR MASS ON SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL MERGE FROM THIS FLOW TO PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN SPREADING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE BY 00Z MONDAY...AS SUGGESTED BY H850 WINDS
FROM THE GFS/ECMWF OF ABOUT 65-70 KNOTS. UNDER ISENTROPIC
UP GLIDING...IT WILL BE MORE LIKELY FOR SOME OF THESE WINDS TO
CREATE GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH H850
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS.
PW AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE
A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.
COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY
06 TUESDAY.

WENT CLOSE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO END ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND
MOVES EAST.  MODEL TRENDS HAVE WAFFLED A BIT WITH NEITHER THE GFS
AND ECMWF STAYING WITH A GREAT SOLUTION.  SHORTWAVES ARE MORE
EVIDENT IN DEEPER TROUGH EXHIBITED BY THE ECMWF...BUT THE GFS
CURRENTLY SHOWS A MORE WESTERN FLOW.  TOOK A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS
TO RESOLVE SOME OF THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE HOPES THE SOLUTIONS WILL
CONVERGE AS WE MOVE CLOSER IN TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT.  THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EARLY
THURSDAY...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS.  THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET VFR WEATHER. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN
INTERIOR SE OHIO SAT MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS INTERIOR SE OHIO
SAT MORNING AND THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         SAT 11/22/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS LATE SUN INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ009.
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ067-
     075-076-083>086.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW









000
FXUS61 KRLX 220958
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
458 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY...INCREASING SUNDAY FOR A WARMER
BUT WET WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE A SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING TOWARDS WV AND
TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID TEENS. HRRR HAS THE SLUG DRYING OUT
EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF SE OHIO...SO WENT WITH A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE PRECIP WILL BE FALLING INTO A
COLD AIR MASS. OBSERVATION IN PERRY COUNTY AT 27 SO OPTED TO LEAVE
THEM OUT AS THE WARM AIR EXTENDS TO ABOUT PERRY CNTY. AFTER 9 AM
TEMPS SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND THE FZRA THREAT WILL BE
GONE.

THEN A PLEASANT DRY...DAY WHERE TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE WIND FLOW WILL TURN DEEP FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST...TO BRING MOIST AND WARM AIR MASS ON SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL MERGE FROM THIS FLOW TO PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN SPREADING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE BY 00Z MONDAY...AS SUGGESTED BY H850 WINDS
FROM THE GFS/ECMWF OF ABOUT 65-70 KNOTS. UNDER ISENTROPIC
UP GLIDING...IT WILL BE MORE LIKELY FOR SOME OF THESE WINDS TO
CREATE GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH H850
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS.
PW AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE
A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.
COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY
06 TUESDAY.

WENT CLOSE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO END ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND
MOVES EAST.  MODEL TRENDS HAVE WAFFLED A BIT WITH NEITHER THE GFS
AND ECMWF STAYING WITH A GREAT SOLUTION.  SHORTWAVES ARE MORE
EVIDENT IN DEEPER TROUGH EXHIBITED BY THE ECMWF...BUT THE GFS
CURRENTLY SHOWS A MORE WESTERN FLOW.  TOOK A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS
TO RESOLVE SOME OF THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE HOPES THE SOLUTIONS WILL
CONVERGE AS WE MOVE CLOSER IN TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT.  THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EARLY
THURSDAY...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS.  THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET VFR WEATHER. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN
INTERIOR SE OHIO SAT MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS INTERIOR SE OHIO
SAT MORNING AND THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         SAT 11/22/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS LATE SUN INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ009.
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ067-
     075-076-083>086.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW









000
FXUS61 KRLX 220958
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
458 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY...INCREASING SUNDAY FOR A WARMER
BUT WET WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE A SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING TOWARDS WV AND
TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID TEENS. HRRR HAS THE SLUG DRYING OUT
EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF SE OHIO...SO WENT WITH A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE PRECIP WILL BE FALLING INTO A
COLD AIR MASS. OBSERVATION IN PERRY COUNTY AT 27 SO OPTED TO LEAVE
THEM OUT AS THE WARM AIR EXTENDS TO ABOUT PERRY CNTY. AFTER 9 AM
TEMPS SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND THE FZRA THREAT WILL BE
GONE.

THEN A PLEASANT DRY...DAY WHERE TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE WIND FLOW WILL TURN DEEP FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST...TO BRING MOIST AND WARM AIR MASS ON SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL MERGE FROM THIS FLOW TO PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN SPREADING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE BY 00Z MONDAY...AS SUGGESTED BY H850 WINDS
FROM THE GFS/ECMWF OF ABOUT 65-70 KNOTS. UNDER ISENTROPIC
UP GLIDING...IT WILL BE MORE LIKELY FOR SOME OF THESE WINDS TO
CREATE GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH H850
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS.
PW AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE
A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.
COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY
06 TUESDAY.

WENT CLOSE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO END ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND
MOVES EAST.  MODEL TRENDS HAVE WAFFLED A BIT WITH NEITHER THE GFS
AND ECMWF STAYING WITH A GREAT SOLUTION.  SHORTWAVES ARE MORE
EVIDENT IN DEEPER TROUGH EXHIBITED BY THE ECMWF...BUT THE GFS
CURRENTLY SHOWS A MORE WESTERN FLOW.  TOOK A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS
TO RESOLVE SOME OF THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE HOPES THE SOLUTIONS WILL
CONVERGE AS WE MOVE CLOSER IN TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT.  THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EARLY
THURSDAY...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS.  THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET VFR WEATHER. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN
INTERIOR SE OHIO SAT MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS INTERIOR SE OHIO
SAT MORNING AND THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         SAT 11/22/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS LATE SUN INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ009.
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ067-
     075-076-083>086.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW









000
FXUS61 KRLX 220958
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
458 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY...INCREASING SUNDAY FOR A WARMER
BUT WET WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE A SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING TOWARDS WV AND
TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID TEENS. HRRR HAS THE SLUG DRYING OUT
EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF SE OHIO...SO WENT WITH A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE PRECIP WILL BE FALLING INTO A
COLD AIR MASS. OBSERVATION IN PERRY COUNTY AT 27 SO OPTED TO LEAVE
THEM OUT AS THE WARM AIR EXTENDS TO ABOUT PERRY CNTY. AFTER 9 AM
TEMPS SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND THE FZRA THREAT WILL BE
GONE.

THEN A PLEASANT DRY...DAY WHERE TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE WIND FLOW WILL TURN DEEP FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST...TO BRING MOIST AND WARM AIR MASS ON SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL MERGE FROM THIS FLOW TO PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN SPREADING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE BY 00Z MONDAY...AS SUGGESTED BY H850 WINDS
FROM THE GFS/ECMWF OF ABOUT 65-70 KNOTS. UNDER ISENTROPIC
UP GLIDING...IT WILL BE MORE LIKELY FOR SOME OF THESE WINDS TO
CREATE GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH H850
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS.
PW AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE
A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.
COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY
06 TUESDAY.

WENT CLOSE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO END ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND
MOVES EAST.  MODEL TRENDS HAVE WAFFLED A BIT WITH NEITHER THE GFS
AND ECMWF STAYING WITH A GREAT SOLUTION.  SHORTWAVES ARE MORE
EVIDENT IN DEEPER TROUGH EXHIBITED BY THE ECMWF...BUT THE GFS
CURRENTLY SHOWS A MORE WESTERN FLOW.  TOOK A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS
TO RESOLVE SOME OF THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE HOPES THE SOLUTIONS WILL
CONVERGE AS WE MOVE CLOSER IN TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT.  THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EARLY
THURSDAY...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS.  THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET VFR WEATHER. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN
INTERIOR SE OHIO SAT MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS INTERIOR SE OHIO
SAT MORNING AND THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         SAT 11/22/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS LATE SUN INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ009.
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ067-
     075-076-083>086.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW









000
FXUS61 KRLX 220958
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
458 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY...INCREASING SUNDAY FOR A WARMER
BUT WET WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE A SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING TOWARDS WV AND
TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID TEENS. HRRR HAS THE SLUG DRYING OUT
EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF SE OHIO...SO WENT WITH A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE PRECIP WILL BE FALLING INTO A
COLD AIR MASS. OBSERVATION IN PERRY COUNTY AT 27 SO OPTED TO LEAVE
THEM OUT AS THE WARM AIR EXTENDS TO ABOUT PERRY CNTY. AFTER 9 AM
TEMPS SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND THE FZRA THREAT WILL BE
GONE.

THEN A PLEASANT DRY...DAY WHERE TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE WIND FLOW WILL TURN DEEP FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST...TO BRING MOIST AND WARM AIR MASS ON SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL MERGE FROM THIS FLOW TO PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN SPREADING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE BY 00Z MONDAY...AS SUGGESTED BY H850 WINDS
FROM THE GFS/ECMWF OF ABOUT 65-70 KNOTS. UNDER ISENTROPIC
UP GLIDING...IT WILL BE MORE LIKELY FOR SOME OF THESE WINDS TO
CREATE GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH H850
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS.
PW AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE
A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.
COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY
06 TUESDAY.

WENT CLOSE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO END ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND
MOVES EAST.  MODEL TRENDS HAVE WAFFLED A BIT WITH NEITHER THE GFS
AND ECMWF STAYING WITH A GREAT SOLUTION.  SHORTWAVES ARE MORE
EVIDENT IN DEEPER TROUGH EXHIBITED BY THE ECMWF...BUT THE GFS
CURRENTLY SHOWS A MORE WESTERN FLOW.  TOOK A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS
TO RESOLVE SOME OF THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE HOPES THE SOLUTIONS WILL
CONVERGE AS WE MOVE CLOSER IN TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT.  THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EARLY
THURSDAY...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS.  THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET VFR WEATHER. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN
INTERIOR SE OHIO SAT MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS INTERIOR SE OHIO
SAT MORNING AND THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         SAT 11/22/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS LATE SUN INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ009.
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ067-
     075-076-083>086.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW








000
FXUS61 KRLX 220958
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
458 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY...INCREASING SUNDAY FOR A WARMER
BUT WET WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE A SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING TOWARDS WV AND
TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID TEENS. HRRR HAS THE SLUG DRYING OUT
EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF SE OHIO...SO WENT WITH A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE PRECIP WILL BE FALLING INTO A
COLD AIR MASS. OBSERVATION IN PERRY COUNTY AT 27 SO OPTED TO LEAVE
THEM OUT AS THE WARM AIR EXTENDS TO ABOUT PERRY CNTY. AFTER 9 AM
TEMPS SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND THE FZRA THREAT WILL BE
GONE.

THEN A PLEASANT DRY...DAY WHERE TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE WIND FLOW WILL TURN DEEP FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST...TO BRING MOIST AND WARM AIR MASS ON SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL MERGE FROM THIS FLOW TO PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN SPREADING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE BY 00Z MONDAY...AS SUGGESTED BY H850 WINDS
FROM THE GFS/ECMWF OF ABOUT 65-70 KNOTS. UNDER ISENTROPIC
UP GLIDING...IT WILL BE MORE LIKELY FOR SOME OF THESE WINDS TO
CREATE GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH H850
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS.
PW AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE
A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.
COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY
06 TUESDAY.

WENT CLOSE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO END ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND
MOVES EAST.  MODEL TRENDS HAVE WAFFLED A BIT WITH NEITHER THE GFS
AND ECMWF STAYING WITH A GREAT SOLUTION.  SHORTWAVES ARE MORE
EVIDENT IN DEEPER TROUGH EXHIBITED BY THE ECMWF...BUT THE GFS
CURRENTLY SHOWS A MORE WESTERN FLOW.  TOOK A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS
TO RESOLVE SOME OF THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE HOPES THE SOLUTIONS WILL
CONVERGE AS WE MOVE CLOSER IN TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT.  THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EARLY
THURSDAY...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS.  THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET VFR WEATHER. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN
INTERIOR SE OHIO SAT MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS INTERIOR SE OHIO
SAT MORNING AND THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         SAT 11/22/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS LATE SUN INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ009.
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ067-
     075-076-083>086.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW









000
FXUS61 KRLX 220910
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
410 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY...INCREASING SUNDAY FOR A WARMER
BUT WET WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
700 PM UPDATE...
ADDED A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN TO PERRY
COUNTY SAT MORNING...NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY HAZARDS.  ANY
FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT / BRIEF...AS THE COLD AIR
SHOULD BE QUICKLY ERADICATED.  THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR THAT WOULD WET
BULB THE TEMPERATURE AT THE ONSET OF ANY PRECIPITATION MAY ALSO HOLD
OFF SAID ONSET.

PREV DISCN BELOW...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TODAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT AS HIGH
PULLS EAST. MAY EVEN HAVE A VERY WEAK WARM FRONT DRIFTING NORTH
ACROSS OHIO. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF CWA...SO LEFT
ANY POPS OUT OF FAR NW CORNER. PLUS...ANY PRECIP THAT MAY FALL
FROM CLOUDS WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE BEFORE HITTING THE GROUND WITH
DRY AIR STILL AT THE SURFACE. STARTED WITH A MAV/MET BLEND FOR HIGHS
AND LOWS...THEN MADE A FEW TWEAKS. WENT NON-DIURNAL ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN TONIGHT...AND ALSO WENT A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE WEST AS
CLOUDS MOVE IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE WIND FLOW WILL TURN DEEP FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST...TO BRING MOIST AND WARM AIR MASS ON SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL MERGE FROM THIS FLOW TO PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN SPREADING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE BY 00Z MONDAY...AS SUGGESTED BY H850 WINDS
FROM THE GFS/ECMWF OF ABOUT 65-70 KNOTS. UNDER ISENTROPIC
UP GLIDING...IT WILL BE MORE LIKELY FOR SOME OF THESE WINDS TO
CREATE GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH H850
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS.
PW AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE
A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.
COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY
06 TUESDAY.

WENT CLOSE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO END ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND
MOVES EAST.  MODEL TRENDS HAVE WAFFLED A BIT WITH NEITHER THE GFS
AND ECMWF STAYING WITH A GREAT SOLUTION.  SHORTWAVES ARE MORE
EVIDENT IN DEEPER TROUGH EXHIBITED BY THE ECMWF...BUT THE GFS
CURRENTLY SHOWS A MORE WESTERN FLOW.  TOOK A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS
TO RESOLVE SOME OF THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE HOPES THE SOLUTIONS WILL
CONVERGE AS WE MOVE CLOSER IN TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT.  THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EARLY
THURSDAY...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS.  THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET VFR WEATHER. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN
INTERIOR SE OHIO SAT MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS INTERIOR SE OHIO
SAT MORNING AND THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         SAT 11/22/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS LATE SUN INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW








000
FXUS61 KRLX 220910
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
410 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY...INCREASING SUNDAY FOR A WARMER
BUT WET WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
700 PM UPDATE...
ADDED A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN TO PERRY
COUNTY SAT MORNING...NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY HAZARDS.  ANY
FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT / BRIEF...AS THE COLD AIR
SHOULD BE QUICKLY ERADICATED.  THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR THAT WOULD WET
BULB THE TEMPERATURE AT THE ONSET OF ANY PRECIPITATION MAY ALSO HOLD
OFF SAID ONSET.

PREV DISCN BELOW...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TODAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT AS HIGH
PULLS EAST. MAY EVEN HAVE A VERY WEAK WARM FRONT DRIFTING NORTH
ACROSS OHIO. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF CWA...SO LEFT
ANY POPS OUT OF FAR NW CORNER. PLUS...ANY PRECIP THAT MAY FALL
FROM CLOUDS WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE BEFORE HITTING THE GROUND WITH
DRY AIR STILL AT THE SURFACE. STARTED WITH A MAV/MET BLEND FOR HIGHS
AND LOWS...THEN MADE A FEW TWEAKS. WENT NON-DIURNAL ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN TONIGHT...AND ALSO WENT A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE WEST AS
CLOUDS MOVE IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE WIND FLOW WILL TURN DEEP FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST...TO BRING MOIST AND WARM AIR MASS ON SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL MERGE FROM THIS FLOW TO PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN SPREADING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE BY 00Z MONDAY...AS SUGGESTED BY H850 WINDS
FROM THE GFS/ECMWF OF ABOUT 65-70 KNOTS. UNDER ISENTROPIC
UP GLIDING...IT WILL BE MORE LIKELY FOR SOME OF THESE WINDS TO
CREATE GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH H850
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS.
PW AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE
A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.
COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY
06 TUESDAY.

WENT CLOSE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO END ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND
MOVES EAST.  MODEL TRENDS HAVE WAFFLED A BIT WITH NEITHER THE GFS
AND ECMWF STAYING WITH A GREAT SOLUTION.  SHORTWAVES ARE MORE
EVIDENT IN DEEPER TROUGH EXHIBITED BY THE ECMWF...BUT THE GFS
CURRENTLY SHOWS A MORE WESTERN FLOW.  TOOK A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS
TO RESOLVE SOME OF THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE HOPES THE SOLUTIONS WILL
CONVERGE AS WE MOVE CLOSER IN TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT.  THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EARLY
THURSDAY...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS.  THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET VFR WEATHER. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN
INTERIOR SE OHIO SAT MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS INTERIOR SE OHIO
SAT MORNING AND THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         SAT 11/22/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS LATE SUN INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW









000
FXUS61 KRLX 220541
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1241 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OVERNIGHT.  SOUTHERLY FLOW ON ITS BACK SIDE WILL
BRING ABOUT A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND...BUT LOW
PRESSURE BRINGS A WET SECOND HALF TO IT.  COOLER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
700 PM UPDATE...
ADDED A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN TO PERRY
COUNTY SAT MORNING...NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY HAZARDS.  ANY
FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT / BRIEF...AS THE COLD AIR
SHOULD BE QUICKLY ERADICATED.  THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR THAT WOULD WET
BULB THE TEMPERATURE AT THE ONSET OF ANY PRECIPITATION MAY ALSO HOLD
OFF SAID ONSET.

PREV DISCN BELOW...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TODAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT AS HIGH
PULLS EAST. MAY EVEN HAVE A VERY WEAK WARM FRONT DRIFTING NORTH
ACROSS OHIO. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF CWA...SO LEFT
ANY POPS OUT OF FAR NW CORNER. PLUS...ANY PRECIP THAT MAY FALL
FROM CLOUDS WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE BEFORE HITTING THE GROUND WITH
DRY AIR STILL AT THE SURFACE. STARTED WITH A MAV/MET BLEND FOR HIGHS
AND LOWS...THEN MADE A FEW TWEAKS. WENT NON-DIURNAL ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN TONIGHT...AND ALSO WENT A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE WEST AS
CLOUDS MOVE IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WARM...BUT RAINY CONDITIONS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN GULF
STATES INTO THE MIDWEST. GOOD MOISTURE FETCH WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW...AND PW VALUES PROGGED TO RISE TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...AND TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT RATHER GUSTY
WINDS...PARTICULARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH  MONDAY...PARTICULARLY
ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS. COULD STILL BE A CHANCE FOR A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT FOR
NOW.

BULK OF FORCING WILL PUSH OFF TO THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
DRIER WEATHER TAKING HOLD FOR THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY.
HOWEVER...COLD FRONT...WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
DAY MONDAY...WITH AN INCREASE IN POPS ONCE AGAIN. LOOKING AT THIS
POINT THAT NOT ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE CWA DURING
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD FOR A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO END ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND
MOVES EAST.  MODEL TRENDS HAVE WAFFLED A BIT WITH NEITHER THE GFS
AND ECMWF STAYING WITH A GREAT SOLUTION.  SHORTWAVES ARE MORE
EVIDENT IN DEEPER TROUGH EXHIBITED BY THE ECMWF...BUT THE GFS
CURRENTLY SHOWS A MORE WESTERN FLOW.  TOOK A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS
TO RESOLVE SOME OF THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE HOPES THE SOLUTIONS WILL
CONVERGE AS WE MOVE CLOSER IN TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT.  THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EARLY
THURSDAY...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS.  THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET VFR WEATHER. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN
INTERIOR SE OHIO SAT MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS INTERIOR SE OHIO
SAT MORNING AND THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   SAT 11/22/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS LATE SUN INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ/LS
NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW








000
FXUS61 KRLX 220007
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
707 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OVERNIGHT.  SOUTHERLY FLOW ON ITS BACK SIDE WILL
BRING ABOUT A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND...BUT LOW
PRESSURE BRINGS A WET SECOND HALF TO IT.  COOLER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
700 PM UPDATE...
ADDED A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN TO PERRY
COUNTY SAT MORNING...NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY HAZARDS.  ANY
FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT / BRIEF...AS THE COLD AIR
SHOULD BE QUICKLY ERADICATED.  THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR THAT WOULD WET
BULB THE TEMPERATURE AT THE ONSET OF ANY PRECIPITATION MAY ALSO HOLD
OFF SAID ONSET.

PREV DISCN BELOW...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TODAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT AS HIGH
PULLS EAST. MAY EVEN HAVE A VERY WEAK WARM FRONT DRIFTING NORTH
ACROSS OHIO. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF CWA...SO LEFT
ANY POPS OUT OF FAR NW CORNER. PLUS...ANY PRECIP THAT MAY FALL
FROM CLOUDS WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE BEFORE HITTING THE GROUND WITH
DRY AIR STILL AT THE SURFACE. STARTED WITH A MAV/MET BLEND FOR HIGHS
AND LOWS...THEN MADE A FEW TWEAKS. WENT NON-DIURNAL ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN TONIGHT...AND ALSO WENT A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE WEST AS
CLOUDS MOVE IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WARM...BUT RAINY CONDITIONS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN GULF
STATES INTO THE MIDWEST. GOOD MOISTURE FETCH WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW...AND PW VALUES PROGGED TO RISE TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...AND TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT RATHER GUSTY
WINDS...PARTICULARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH  MONDAY...PARTICULARLY
ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS. COULD STILL BE A CHANCE FOR A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT FOR
NOW.

BULK OF FORCING WILL PUSH OFF TO THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
DRIER WEATHER TAKING HOLD FOR THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY.
HOWEVER...COLD FRONT...WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
DAY MONDAY...WITH AN INCREASE IN POPS ONCE AGAIN. LOOKING AT THIS
POINT THAT NOT ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE CWA DURING
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD FOR A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO END ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND
MOVES EAST.  MODEL TRENDS HAVE WAFFLED A BIT WITH NEITHER THE GFS
AND ECMWF STAYING WITH A GREAT SOLUTION.  SHORTWAVES ARE MORE
EVIDENT IN DEEPER TROUGH EXHIBITED BY THE ECMWF...BUT THE GFS
CURRENTLY SHOWS A MORE WESTERN FLOW.  TOOK A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS
TO RESOLVE SOME OF THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE HOPES THE SOLUTIONS WILL
CONVERGE AS WE MOVE CLOSER IN TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT.  THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EARLY
THURSDAY...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS.  THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET VFR AVIATION PERIOD EVEN AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OVERNIGHT.  A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY ON SAT WILL
BRING SOME ALTOCU AND STRATOCU...ESPECIALLY TO NRN SITES
PKB-CKB-EKN.  A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN
INTERIOR SE OHIO SAT MORNING.

LIGHT...NEARLY CALM FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT S ON SAT.
LIGHT NW NW FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO LIGHT SW OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND MODERATE SW OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT...AND THEN REMAINS SO ON SAT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS INTERIOR SE OHIO
SAT MORNING THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 SAT
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS LATE SUN INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ/LS/TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...TRM






000
FXUS61 KRLX 211824
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
124 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST INTO TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A PRONOUNCED
WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS WET WEATHER
SUNDAY. COOLER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TODAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT AS HIGH
PULLS EAST. MAY EVEN HAVE A VERY WEAK WARM FRONT DRIFTING NORTH
ACROSS OHIO. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF CWA...SO LEFT
ANY POPS OUT OF FAR NW CORNER. PLUS...ANY PRECIP THAT MAY FALL
FROM CLOUDS WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE BEFORE HITTING THE GROUND WITH
DRY AIR STILL AT THE SURFACE. STARTED WITH A MAV/MET BLEND FOR HIGHS
AND LOWS...THEN MADE A FEW TWEAKS. WENT NON-DIURNAL ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN TONIGHT...AND ALSO WENT A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE WEST AS
CLOUDS MOVE IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WARM...BUT RAINY CONDITIONS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN GULF
STATES INTO THE MIDWEST. GOOD MOISTURE FETCH WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW...AND PW VALUES PROGGED TO RISE TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...AND TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT RATHER GUSTY
WINDS...PARTICULARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH  MONDAY...PARTICULARLY
ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS. COULD STILL BE A CHANCE FOR A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT FOR
NOW.

BULK OF FORCING WILL PUSH OFF TO THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
DRIER WEATHER TAKING HOLD FOR THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY.
HOWEVER...COLD FRONT...WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
DAY MONDAY...WITH AN INCREASE IN POPS ONCE AGAIN. LOOKING AT THIS
POINT THAT NOT ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE CWA DURING
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD FOR A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO END ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND
MOVES EAST.  MODEL TRENDS HAVE WAFFLED A BIT WITH NEITHER THE GFS
AND ECMWF STAYING WITH A GREAT SOLUTION.  SHORTWAVES ARE MORE
EVIDENT IN DEEPER TROUGH EXHIBITED BY THE ECMWF...BUT THE GFS
CURRENTLY SHOWS A MORE WESTERN FLOW.  TOOK A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS
TO RESOLVE SOME OF THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE HOPES THE SOLUTIONS WILL
CONVERGE AS WE MOVE CLOSER IN TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT.  THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EARLY
THURSDAY...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS.  THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FROM WEST OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR. AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS PAST WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY...BECOMING
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE NORTH.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RAIN AND CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ/LS
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...MZ








000
FXUS61 KRLX 211824
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
124 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST INTO TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A PRONOUNCED
WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS WET WEATHER
SUNDAY. COOLER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TODAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT AS HIGH
PULLS EAST. MAY EVEN HAVE A VERY WEAK WARM FRONT DRIFTING NORTH
ACROSS OHIO. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF CWA...SO LEFT
ANY POPS OUT OF FAR NW CORNER. PLUS...ANY PRECIP THAT MAY FALL
FROM CLOUDS WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE BEFORE HITTING THE GROUND WITH
DRY AIR STILL AT THE SURFACE. STARTED WITH A MAV/MET BLEND FOR HIGHS
AND LOWS...THEN MADE A FEW TWEAKS. WENT NON-DIURNAL ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN TONIGHT...AND ALSO WENT A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE WEST AS
CLOUDS MOVE IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WARM...BUT RAINY CONDITIONS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN GULF
STATES INTO THE MIDWEST. GOOD MOISTURE FETCH WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW...AND PW VALUES PROGGED TO RISE TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...AND TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT RATHER GUSTY
WINDS...PARTICULARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH  MONDAY...PARTICULARLY
ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS. COULD STILL BE A CHANCE FOR A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT FOR
NOW.

BULK OF FORCING WILL PUSH OFF TO THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
DRIER WEATHER TAKING HOLD FOR THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY.
HOWEVER...COLD FRONT...WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
DAY MONDAY...WITH AN INCREASE IN POPS ONCE AGAIN. LOOKING AT THIS
POINT THAT NOT ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE CWA DURING
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD FOR A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO END ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND
MOVES EAST.  MODEL TRENDS HAVE WAFFLED A BIT WITH NEITHER THE GFS
AND ECMWF STAYING WITH A GREAT SOLUTION.  SHORTWAVES ARE MORE
EVIDENT IN DEEPER TROUGH EXHIBITED BY THE ECMWF...BUT THE GFS
CURRENTLY SHOWS A MORE WESTERN FLOW.  TOOK A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS
TO RESOLVE SOME OF THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE HOPES THE SOLUTIONS WILL
CONVERGE AS WE MOVE CLOSER IN TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT.  THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EARLY
THURSDAY...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS.  THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FROM WEST OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR. AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS PAST WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY...BECOMING
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE NORTH.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RAIN AND CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ/LS
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...MZ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 211720
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1220 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST INTO TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A PRONOUNCED
WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS WET WEATHER
SUNDAY. COOLER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TODAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT AS HIGH
PULLS EAST. MAY EVEN HAVE A VERY WEAK WARM FRONT DRIFTING NORTH
ACROSS OHIO. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF CWA...SO LEFT
ANY POPS OUT OF FAR NW CORNER. PLUS...ANY PRECIP THAT MAY FALL
FROM CLOUDS WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE BEFORE HITTING THE GROUND WITH
DRY AIR STILL AT THE SURFACE. STARTED WITH A MAV/MET BLEND FOR HIGHS
AND LOWS...THEN MADE A FEW TWEAKS. WENT NON-DIURNAL ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN TONIGHT...AND ALSO WENT A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE WEST AS
CLOUDS MOVE IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID TO LOW
LEVELS BRINGING A WARM FRONT WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

PCPN INCREASES SUNDAY WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTH...PUSHING HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT INTO THE REGION. H850
TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO 11C...WARM ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO FALL AS
RAIN. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS REMAINS SUNDAY. KEEP LIKELY POPS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY NORTHERN SECTIONS PER MODELS CONSENSUS
ON THE STRONGEST FORCING.

STRONG WINDS AT H50 REACHING 60-70 KNOTS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
CONDITIONS MAINLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS UNDER UPGLIDE FLOW.

STRONGER WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON
SUNDAY...TO PRODUCE GUSTY CONDITIONS AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS RIDGE TOPS.

WENT A BLEND OF MET AND MAV NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SLIGHTLY WARMER UNDER STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND HIGHS IN THE MID 60S FOR THE
LOWLANDS...MID 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED BEGINNING THE PERIOD...BUT THIS WILL END QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING INTO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY.

A WEAKENING 500 MB TROUGH WILL ALLOW COLD TEMPERATURES TO DIP SOUTH
AND COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS BEFORE ENDING IN
THE AFTERNOON.  THE MOUNTAINS WILL HOLD ON TO A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THANKSGIVING...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SOME PRECIPITATION IN SE OHIO AS A FEW RIPPLES MOVE ALONG THE
HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FROM WEST OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR. AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS PAST WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY...BECOMING
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE NORTH.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RAIN AND CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ/LS
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...MZ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 211720
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1220 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST INTO TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A PRONOUNCED
WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS WET WEATHER
SUNDAY. COOLER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TODAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT AS HIGH
PULLS EAST. MAY EVEN HAVE A VERY WEAK WARM FRONT DRIFTING NORTH
ACROSS OHIO. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF CWA...SO LEFT
ANY POPS OUT OF FAR NW CORNER. PLUS...ANY PRECIP THAT MAY FALL
FROM CLOUDS WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE BEFORE HITTING THE GROUND WITH
DRY AIR STILL AT THE SURFACE. STARTED WITH A MAV/MET BLEND FOR HIGHS
AND LOWS...THEN MADE A FEW TWEAKS. WENT NON-DIURNAL ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN TONIGHT...AND ALSO WENT A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE WEST AS
CLOUDS MOVE IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID TO LOW
LEVELS BRINGING A WARM FRONT WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

PCPN INCREASES SUNDAY WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTH...PUSHING HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT INTO THE REGION. H850
TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO 11C...WARM ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO FALL AS
RAIN. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS REMAINS SUNDAY. KEEP LIKELY POPS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY NORTHERN SECTIONS PER MODELS CONSENSUS
ON THE STRONGEST FORCING.

STRONG WINDS AT H50 REACHING 60-70 KNOTS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
CONDITIONS MAINLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS UNDER UPGLIDE FLOW.

STRONGER WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON
SUNDAY...TO PRODUCE GUSTY CONDITIONS AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS RIDGE TOPS.

WENT A BLEND OF MET AND MAV NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SLIGHTLY WARMER UNDER STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND HIGHS IN THE MID 60S FOR THE
LOWLANDS...MID 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED BEGINNING THE PERIOD...BUT THIS WILL END QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING INTO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY.

A WEAKENING 500 MB TROUGH WILL ALLOW COLD TEMPERATURES TO DIP SOUTH
AND COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS BEFORE ENDING IN
THE AFTERNOON.  THE MOUNTAINS WILL HOLD ON TO A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THANKSGIVING...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SOME PRECIPITATION IN SE OHIO AS A FEW RIPPLES MOVE ALONG THE
HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FROM WEST OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR. AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS PAST WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY...BECOMING
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE NORTH.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RAIN AND CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ/LS
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...MZ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 211720
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1220 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST INTO TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A PRONOUNCED
WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS WET WEATHER
SUNDAY. COOLER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TODAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT AS HIGH
PULLS EAST. MAY EVEN HAVE A VERY WEAK WARM FRONT DRIFTING NORTH
ACROSS OHIO. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF CWA...SO LEFT
ANY POPS OUT OF FAR NW CORNER. PLUS...ANY PRECIP THAT MAY FALL
FROM CLOUDS WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE BEFORE HITTING THE GROUND WITH
DRY AIR STILL AT THE SURFACE. STARTED WITH A MAV/MET BLEND FOR HIGHS
AND LOWS...THEN MADE A FEW TWEAKS. WENT NON-DIURNAL ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN TONIGHT...AND ALSO WENT A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE WEST AS
CLOUDS MOVE IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID TO LOW
LEVELS BRINGING A WARM FRONT WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

PCPN INCREASES SUNDAY WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTH...PUSHING HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT INTO THE REGION. H850
TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO 11C...WARM ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO FALL AS
RAIN. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS REMAINS SUNDAY. KEEP LIKELY POPS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY NORTHERN SECTIONS PER MODELS CONSENSUS
ON THE STRONGEST FORCING.

STRONG WINDS AT H50 REACHING 60-70 KNOTS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
CONDITIONS MAINLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS UNDER UPGLIDE FLOW.

STRONGER WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON
SUNDAY...TO PRODUCE GUSTY CONDITIONS AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS RIDGE TOPS.

WENT A BLEND OF MET AND MAV NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SLIGHTLY WARMER UNDER STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND HIGHS IN THE MID 60S FOR THE
LOWLANDS...MID 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED BEGINNING THE PERIOD...BUT THIS WILL END QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING INTO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY.

A WEAKENING 500 MB TROUGH WILL ALLOW COLD TEMPERATURES TO DIP SOUTH
AND COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS BEFORE ENDING IN
THE AFTERNOON.  THE MOUNTAINS WILL HOLD ON TO A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THANKSGIVING...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SOME PRECIPITATION IN SE OHIO AS A FEW RIPPLES MOVE ALONG THE
HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FROM WEST OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR. AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS PAST WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY...BECOMING
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE NORTH.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RAIN AND CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ/LS
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...MZ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 211720
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1220 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST INTO TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A PRONOUNCED
WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS WET WEATHER
SUNDAY. COOLER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TODAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT AS HIGH
PULLS EAST. MAY EVEN HAVE A VERY WEAK WARM FRONT DRIFTING NORTH
ACROSS OHIO. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF CWA...SO LEFT
ANY POPS OUT OF FAR NW CORNER. PLUS...ANY PRECIP THAT MAY FALL
FROM CLOUDS WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE BEFORE HITTING THE GROUND WITH
DRY AIR STILL AT THE SURFACE. STARTED WITH A MAV/MET BLEND FOR HIGHS
AND LOWS...THEN MADE A FEW TWEAKS. WENT NON-DIURNAL ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN TONIGHT...AND ALSO WENT A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE WEST AS
CLOUDS MOVE IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID TO LOW
LEVELS BRINGING A WARM FRONT WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

PCPN INCREASES SUNDAY WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTH...PUSHING HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT INTO THE REGION. H850
TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO 11C...WARM ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO FALL AS
RAIN. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS REMAINS SUNDAY. KEEP LIKELY POPS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY NORTHERN SECTIONS PER MODELS CONSENSUS
ON THE STRONGEST FORCING.

STRONG WINDS AT H50 REACHING 60-70 KNOTS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
CONDITIONS MAINLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS UNDER UPGLIDE FLOW.

STRONGER WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON
SUNDAY...TO PRODUCE GUSTY CONDITIONS AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS RIDGE TOPS.

WENT A BLEND OF MET AND MAV NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SLIGHTLY WARMER UNDER STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND HIGHS IN THE MID 60S FOR THE
LOWLANDS...MID 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED BEGINNING THE PERIOD...BUT THIS WILL END QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING INTO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY.

A WEAKENING 500 MB TROUGH WILL ALLOW COLD TEMPERATURES TO DIP SOUTH
AND COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS BEFORE ENDING IN
THE AFTERNOON.  THE MOUNTAINS WILL HOLD ON TO A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THANKSGIVING...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SOME PRECIPITATION IN SE OHIO AS A FEW RIPPLES MOVE ALONG THE
HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FROM WEST OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR. AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS PAST WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY...BECOMING
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE NORTH.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RAIN AND CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ/LS
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...MZ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 211400
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
900 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE STARVED NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSES FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND THIS
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS WET WEATHER SUNDAY. COOLER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
900 AM UPDATE...TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPS AND SKY BASED ON CURRENT OBS
AND TRENDS BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LIGHT NW FLOW IS BRINGING SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS.

TEMPERATURES START TO MODERATE A BIT TODAY...BUT STILL REMAIN
ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TONIGHT SHOULD BE THE LAST BELOW
FREEZING NIGHT FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH DRY AND WARM WEATHER
SATURDAY...BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID TO LOW
LEVELS BRINGING A WARM FRONT WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

PCPN INCREASES SUNDAY WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTH...PUSHING HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT INTO THE REGION. H850
TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO 11C...WARM ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO FALL AS
RAIN. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS REMAINS SUNDAY. KEEP LIKELY POPS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY NORTHERN SECTIONS PER MODELS CONSENSUS
ON THE STRONGEST FORCING.

STRONG WINDS AT H50 REACHING 60-70 KNOTS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
CONDITIONS MAINLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS UNDER UPGLIDE FLOW.

STRONGER WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON
SUNDAY...TO PRODUCE GUSTY CONDITIONS AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS RIDGE TOPS.

WENT A BLEND OF MET AND MAV NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SLIGHTLY WARMER UNDER STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND HIGHS IN THE MID 60S FOR THE
LOWLANDS...MID 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED BEGINNING THE PERIOD...BUT THIS WILL END QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING INTO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY.

A WEAKENING 500 MB TROUGH WILL ALLOW COLD TEMPERATURES TO DIP SOUTH
AND COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS BEFORE ENDING IN
THE AFTERNOON.  THE MOUNTAINS WILL HOLD ON TO A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THANKSGIVING...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SOME PRECIPITATION IN SE OHIO AS A FEW RIPPLES MOVE ALONG THE
HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR SNOW SHOWERS MAY REDUCE VSBY TO MVFR IN THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD BREAK TO VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON.

SFC FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR STRATUS MAY EXPAND IN COVERAGE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RAIN AND CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/30
NEAR TERM...MZ/JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW








000
FXUS61 KRLX 211400
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
900 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE STARVED NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSES FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND THIS
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS WET WEATHER SUNDAY. COOLER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
900 AM UPDATE...TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPS AND SKY BASED ON CURRENT OBS
AND TRENDS BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LIGHT NW FLOW IS BRINGING SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS.

TEMPERATURES START TO MODERATE A BIT TODAY...BUT STILL REMAIN
ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TONIGHT SHOULD BE THE LAST BELOW
FREEZING NIGHT FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH DRY AND WARM WEATHER
SATURDAY...BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID TO LOW
LEVELS BRINGING A WARM FRONT WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

PCPN INCREASES SUNDAY WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTH...PUSHING HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT INTO THE REGION. H850
TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO 11C...WARM ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO FALL AS
RAIN. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS REMAINS SUNDAY. KEEP LIKELY POPS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY NORTHERN SECTIONS PER MODELS CONSENSUS
ON THE STRONGEST FORCING.

STRONG WINDS AT H50 REACHING 60-70 KNOTS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
CONDITIONS MAINLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS UNDER UPGLIDE FLOW.

STRONGER WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON
SUNDAY...TO PRODUCE GUSTY CONDITIONS AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS RIDGE TOPS.

WENT A BLEND OF MET AND MAV NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SLIGHTLY WARMER UNDER STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND HIGHS IN THE MID 60S FOR THE
LOWLANDS...MID 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED BEGINNING THE PERIOD...BUT THIS WILL END QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING INTO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY.

A WEAKENING 500 MB TROUGH WILL ALLOW COLD TEMPERATURES TO DIP SOUTH
AND COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS BEFORE ENDING IN
THE AFTERNOON.  THE MOUNTAINS WILL HOLD ON TO A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THANKSGIVING...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SOME PRECIPITATION IN SE OHIO AS A FEW RIPPLES MOVE ALONG THE
HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR SNOW SHOWERS MAY REDUCE VSBY TO MVFR IN THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD BREAK TO VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON.

SFC FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR STRATUS MAY EXPAND IN COVERAGE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RAIN AND CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/30
NEAR TERM...MZ/JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW








000
FXUS61 KRLX 211400
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
900 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE STARVED NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSES FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND THIS
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS WET WEATHER SUNDAY. COOLER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
900 AM UPDATE...TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPS AND SKY BASED ON CURRENT OBS
AND TRENDS BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LIGHT NW FLOW IS BRINGING SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS.

TEMPERATURES START TO MODERATE A BIT TODAY...BUT STILL REMAIN
ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TONIGHT SHOULD BE THE LAST BELOW
FREEZING NIGHT FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH DRY AND WARM WEATHER
SATURDAY...BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID TO LOW
LEVELS BRINGING A WARM FRONT WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

PCPN INCREASES SUNDAY WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTH...PUSHING HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT INTO THE REGION. H850
TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO 11C...WARM ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO FALL AS
RAIN. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS REMAINS SUNDAY. KEEP LIKELY POPS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY NORTHERN SECTIONS PER MODELS CONSENSUS
ON THE STRONGEST FORCING.

STRONG WINDS AT H50 REACHING 60-70 KNOTS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
CONDITIONS MAINLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS UNDER UPGLIDE FLOW.

STRONGER WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON
SUNDAY...TO PRODUCE GUSTY CONDITIONS AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS RIDGE TOPS.

WENT A BLEND OF MET AND MAV NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SLIGHTLY WARMER UNDER STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND HIGHS IN THE MID 60S FOR THE
LOWLANDS...MID 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED BEGINNING THE PERIOD...BUT THIS WILL END QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING INTO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY.

A WEAKENING 500 MB TROUGH WILL ALLOW COLD TEMPERATURES TO DIP SOUTH
AND COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS BEFORE ENDING IN
THE AFTERNOON.  THE MOUNTAINS WILL HOLD ON TO A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THANKSGIVING...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SOME PRECIPITATION IN SE OHIO AS A FEW RIPPLES MOVE ALONG THE
HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR SNOW SHOWERS MAY REDUCE VSBY TO MVFR IN THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD BREAK TO VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON.

SFC FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR STRATUS MAY EXPAND IN COVERAGE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RAIN AND CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/30
NEAR TERM...MZ/JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW








000
FXUS61 KRLX 211400
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
900 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE STARVED NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSES FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND THIS
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS WET WEATHER SUNDAY. COOLER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
900 AM UPDATE...TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPS AND SKY BASED ON CURRENT OBS
AND TRENDS BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LIGHT NW FLOW IS BRINGING SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS.

TEMPERATURES START TO MODERATE A BIT TODAY...BUT STILL REMAIN
ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TONIGHT SHOULD BE THE LAST BELOW
FREEZING NIGHT FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH DRY AND WARM WEATHER
SATURDAY...BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID TO LOW
LEVELS BRINGING A WARM FRONT WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

PCPN INCREASES SUNDAY WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTH...PUSHING HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT INTO THE REGION. H850
TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO 11C...WARM ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO FALL AS
RAIN. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS REMAINS SUNDAY. KEEP LIKELY POPS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY NORTHERN SECTIONS PER MODELS CONSENSUS
ON THE STRONGEST FORCING.

STRONG WINDS AT H50 REACHING 60-70 KNOTS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
CONDITIONS MAINLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS UNDER UPGLIDE FLOW.

STRONGER WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON
SUNDAY...TO PRODUCE GUSTY CONDITIONS AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS RIDGE TOPS.

WENT A BLEND OF MET AND MAV NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SLIGHTLY WARMER UNDER STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND HIGHS IN THE MID 60S FOR THE
LOWLANDS...MID 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED BEGINNING THE PERIOD...BUT THIS WILL END QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING INTO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY.

A WEAKENING 500 MB TROUGH WILL ALLOW COLD TEMPERATURES TO DIP SOUTH
AND COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS BEFORE ENDING IN
THE AFTERNOON.  THE MOUNTAINS WILL HOLD ON TO A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THANKSGIVING...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SOME PRECIPITATION IN SE OHIO AS A FEW RIPPLES MOVE ALONG THE
HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR SNOW SHOWERS MAY REDUCE VSBY TO MVFR IN THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD BREAK TO VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON.

SFC FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR STRATUS MAY EXPAND IN COVERAGE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RAIN AND CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/30
NEAR TERM...MZ/JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW








000
FXUS61 KRLX 210944
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
444 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE STARVED NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSES FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND THIS
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS WET WEATHER SUNDAY. COOLER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LIGHT NW FLOW IS BRINGING SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS.

TEMPERATURES START TO MODERATE A BIT TODAY...BUT STILL REMAIN
ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TONIGHT SHOULD BE THE LAST BELOW
FREEZING NIGHT FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH DRY AND WARM WEATHER
SATURDAY...BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID TO LOW
LEVELS BRINGING A WARM FRONT WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

PCPN INCREASES SUNDAY WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTH...PUSHING HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT INTO THE REGION. H850
TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO 11C...WARM ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO FALL AS
RAIN. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS REMAINS SUNDAY. KEEP LIKELY POPS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY NORTHERN SECTIONS PER MODELS CONSENSUS
ON THE STRONGEST FORCING.

STRONG WINDS AT H50 REACHING 60-70 KNOTS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
CONDITIONS MAINLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS UNDER UPGLIDE FLOW.

STRONGER WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON
SUNDAY...TO PRODUCE GUSTY CONDITIONS AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS RIDGE TOPS.

WENT A BLEND OF MET AND MAV NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SLIGHTLY WARMER UNDER STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND HIGHS IN THE MID 60S FOR THE
LOWLANDS...MID 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED BEGINNING THE PERIOD...BUT THIS WILL END QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING INTO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY.

A WEAKENING 500 MB TROUGH WILL ALLOW COLD TEMPERATURES TO DIP SOUTH
AND COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS BEFORE ENDING IN
THE AFTERNOON.  THE MOUNTAINS WILL HOLD ON TO A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THANKSGIVING...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SOME PRECIPITATION IN SE OHIO AS A FEW RIPPLES MOVE ALONG THE
HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR SNOW SHOWERS MAY REDUCE VSBY TO MVFR IN THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD BREAK TO VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON.

SFC FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR STRATUS MAY EXPAND IN COVERAGE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         FRI 11/21/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RAIN AND CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/MZ/30
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW








000
FXUS61 KRLX 210944
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
444 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE STARVED NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSES FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND THIS
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS WET WEATHER SUNDAY. COOLER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LIGHT NW FLOW IS BRINGING SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS.

TEMPERATURES START TO MODERATE A BIT TODAY...BUT STILL REMAIN
ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TONIGHT SHOULD BE THE LAST BELOW
FREEZING NIGHT FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH DRY AND WARM WEATHER
SATURDAY...BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID TO LOW
LEVELS BRINGING A WARM FRONT WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

PCPN INCREASES SUNDAY WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTH...PUSHING HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT INTO THE REGION. H850
TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO 11C...WARM ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO FALL AS
RAIN. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS REMAINS SUNDAY. KEEP LIKELY POPS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY NORTHERN SECTIONS PER MODELS CONSENSUS
ON THE STRONGEST FORCING.

STRONG WINDS AT H50 REACHING 60-70 KNOTS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
CONDITIONS MAINLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS UNDER UPGLIDE FLOW.

STRONGER WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON
SUNDAY...TO PRODUCE GUSTY CONDITIONS AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS RIDGE TOPS.

WENT A BLEND OF MET AND MAV NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SLIGHTLY WARMER UNDER STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND HIGHS IN THE MID 60S FOR THE
LOWLANDS...MID 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED BEGINNING THE PERIOD...BUT THIS WILL END QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING INTO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY.

A WEAKENING 500 MB TROUGH WILL ALLOW COLD TEMPERATURES TO DIP SOUTH
AND COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS BEFORE ENDING IN
THE AFTERNOON.  THE MOUNTAINS WILL HOLD ON TO A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THANKSGIVING...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SOME PRECIPITATION IN SE OHIO AS A FEW RIPPLES MOVE ALONG THE
HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR SNOW SHOWERS MAY REDUCE VSBY TO MVFR IN THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD BREAK TO VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON.

SFC FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR STRATUS MAY EXPAND IN COVERAGE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         FRI 11/21/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RAIN AND CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/MZ/30
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW








000
FXUS61 KRLX 210944
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
444 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE STARVED NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSES FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND THIS
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS WET WEATHER SUNDAY. COOLER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LIGHT NW FLOW IS BRINGING SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS.

TEMPERATURES START TO MODERATE A BIT TODAY...BUT STILL REMAIN
ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TONIGHT SHOULD BE THE LAST BELOW
FREEZING NIGHT FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH DRY AND WARM WEATHER
SATURDAY...BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID TO LOW
LEVELS BRINGING A WARM FRONT WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

PCPN INCREASES SUNDAY WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTH...PUSHING HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT INTO THE REGION. H850
TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO 11C...WARM ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO FALL AS
RAIN. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS REMAINS SUNDAY. KEEP LIKELY POPS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY NORTHERN SECTIONS PER MODELS CONSENSUS
ON THE STRONGEST FORCING.

STRONG WINDS AT H50 REACHING 60-70 KNOTS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
CONDITIONS MAINLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS UNDER UPGLIDE FLOW.

STRONGER WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON
SUNDAY...TO PRODUCE GUSTY CONDITIONS AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS RIDGE TOPS.

WENT A BLEND OF MET AND MAV NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SLIGHTLY WARMER UNDER STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND HIGHS IN THE MID 60S FOR THE
LOWLANDS...MID 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED BEGINNING THE PERIOD...BUT THIS WILL END QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING INTO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY.

A WEAKENING 500 MB TROUGH WILL ALLOW COLD TEMPERATURES TO DIP SOUTH
AND COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS BEFORE ENDING IN
THE AFTERNOON.  THE MOUNTAINS WILL HOLD ON TO A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THANKSGIVING...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SOME PRECIPITATION IN SE OHIO AS A FEW RIPPLES MOVE ALONG THE
HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR SNOW SHOWERS MAY REDUCE VSBY TO MVFR IN THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD BREAK TO VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON.

SFC FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR STRATUS MAY EXPAND IN COVERAGE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         FRI 11/21/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RAIN AND CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/MZ/30
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW








000
FXUS61 KRLX 210944
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
444 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE STARVED NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSES FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND THIS
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS WET WEATHER SUNDAY. COOLER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LIGHT NW FLOW IS BRINGING SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS.

TEMPERATURES START TO MODERATE A BIT TODAY...BUT STILL REMAIN
ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TONIGHT SHOULD BE THE LAST BELOW
FREEZING NIGHT FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH DRY AND WARM WEATHER
SATURDAY...BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID TO LOW
LEVELS BRINGING A WARM FRONT WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

PCPN INCREASES SUNDAY WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTH...PUSHING HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT INTO THE REGION. H850
TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO 11C...WARM ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO FALL AS
RAIN. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS REMAINS SUNDAY. KEEP LIKELY POPS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY NORTHERN SECTIONS PER MODELS CONSENSUS
ON THE STRONGEST FORCING.

STRONG WINDS AT H50 REACHING 60-70 KNOTS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
CONDITIONS MAINLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS UNDER UPGLIDE FLOW.

STRONGER WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON
SUNDAY...TO PRODUCE GUSTY CONDITIONS AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS RIDGE TOPS.

WENT A BLEND OF MET AND MAV NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SLIGHTLY WARMER UNDER STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND HIGHS IN THE MID 60S FOR THE
LOWLANDS...MID 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED BEGINNING THE PERIOD...BUT THIS WILL END QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING INTO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY.

A WEAKENING 500 MB TROUGH WILL ALLOW COLD TEMPERATURES TO DIP SOUTH
AND COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS BEFORE ENDING IN
THE AFTERNOON.  THE MOUNTAINS WILL HOLD ON TO A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THANKSGIVING...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SOME PRECIPITATION IN SE OHIO AS A FEW RIPPLES MOVE ALONG THE
HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR SNOW SHOWERS MAY REDUCE VSBY TO MVFR IN THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD BREAK TO VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON.

SFC FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR STRATUS MAY EXPAND IN COVERAGE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         FRI 11/21/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RAIN AND CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/MZ/30
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW








000
FXUS61 KRLX 210732
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
232 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE STARVED NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSES FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND THIS
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS WET WEATHER SUNDAY. COOLER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 PM UPDATE...
STRATOCU A LITTLE SLOW TO FORM OR ADVECT IN. OTHERWISE FCST ON
TRACK.

700 PM UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.

PREV DISCN...
CLOUDS SCATTERED OUT FASTER THAN EXPECTED TODAY...AND HAVE RAISED
HIGHS JUST A TOUCH IN AREAS WHERE WE ARE ALREADY AT/NEAR PREVIOUS
HIGH FORECAST FOR TODAY. FLOW BEGINS TRANSITIONING TO NW AS UPPER
TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE...AS IT MAINLY REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH. 850MB TEMPS
ARE DROPPING DURING THIS TIME...BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 12Z FRIDAY
MORNING. RULE OF THUMB IS TO LINGER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
UNTIL THE 850MB TEMP TROUGH PASSES. SO HAVE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN QUICKLY COMING TO AN
END AS THE SUN RISES. IN ALL...HAVE GENERALLY UP TO AN INCH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WITH NW FLOW...WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDS A BIT
LONGER.

STAYED GENERALLY BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET FOR LOWS TONIGHT...ENDING
UP A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ACROSS THE COAL FIELDS. MADE ONLY
MINIMAL CHANGES TO HIGHS FOR FRIDAY BY BLENDING IN BIAS-CORRECTED
CONSENSUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH DRY AND WARM WEATHER
SATURDAY...BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID TO LOW
LEVELS BRINGING A WARM FRONT WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

PCPN INCREASES SUNDAY WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTH...PUSHING HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT INTO THE REGION. H850
TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO 11C...WARM ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO FALL AS
RAIN. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS REMAINS SUNDAY. KEEP LIKELY POPS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY NORTHERN SECTIONS PER MODELS CONSENSUS
ON THE STRONGEST FORCING.

STRONG WINDS AT H50 REACHING 60-70 KNOTS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
CONDITIONS MAINLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS UNDER UPGLIDE FLOW.

STRONGER WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON
SUNDAY...TO PRODUCE GUSTY CONDITIONS AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS RIDGE TOPS.

WENT A BLEND OF MET AND MAV NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SLIGHTLY WARMER UNDER STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND HIGHS IN THE MID 60S FOR THE
LOWLANDS...MID 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED BEGINNING THE PERIOD...BUT THIS WILL END QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING INTO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY.

A WEAKENING 500 MB TROUGH WILL ALLOW COLD TEMPERATURES TO DIP SOUTH
AND COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS BEFORE ENDING IN
THE AFTERNOON.  THE MOUNTAINS WILL HOLD ON TO A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THANKSGIVING...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SOME PRECIPITATION IN SE OHIO AS A FEW RIPPLES MOVE ALONG THE
HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR SNOW SHOWERS MAY REDUCE VSBY TO MVFR IN THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD BREAK TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

SFC FLOW WILL BE W OVERNIGHT AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON
FRI.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR STRATUS MAY EXPAND IN COVERAGE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         FRI 11/21/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RAIN AND CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/MZ/30
NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW









000
FXUS61 KRLX 210732
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
232 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE STARVED NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSES FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND THIS
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS WET WEATHER SUNDAY. COOLER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 PM UPDATE...
STRATOCU A LITTLE SLOW TO FORM OR ADVECT IN. OTHERWISE FCST ON
TRACK.

700 PM UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.

PREV DISCN...
CLOUDS SCATTERED OUT FASTER THAN EXPECTED TODAY...AND HAVE RAISED
HIGHS JUST A TOUCH IN AREAS WHERE WE ARE ALREADY AT/NEAR PREVIOUS
HIGH FORECAST FOR TODAY. FLOW BEGINS TRANSITIONING TO NW AS UPPER
TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE...AS IT MAINLY REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH. 850MB TEMPS
ARE DROPPING DURING THIS TIME...BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 12Z FRIDAY
MORNING. RULE OF THUMB IS TO LINGER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
UNTIL THE 850MB TEMP TROUGH PASSES. SO HAVE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN QUICKLY COMING TO AN
END AS THE SUN RISES. IN ALL...HAVE GENERALLY UP TO AN INCH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WITH NW FLOW...WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDS A BIT
LONGER.

STAYED GENERALLY BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET FOR LOWS TONIGHT...ENDING
UP A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ACROSS THE COAL FIELDS. MADE ONLY
MINIMAL CHANGES TO HIGHS FOR FRIDAY BY BLENDING IN BIAS-CORRECTED
CONSENSUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH DRY AND WARM WEATHER
SATURDAY...BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID TO LOW
LEVELS BRINGING A WARM FRONT WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

PCPN INCREASES SUNDAY WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTH...PUSHING HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT INTO THE REGION. H850
TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO 11C...WARM ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO FALL AS
RAIN. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS REMAINS SUNDAY. KEEP LIKELY POPS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY NORTHERN SECTIONS PER MODELS CONSENSUS
ON THE STRONGEST FORCING.

STRONG WINDS AT H50 REACHING 60-70 KNOTS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
CONDITIONS MAINLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS UNDER UPGLIDE FLOW.

STRONGER WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON
SUNDAY...TO PRODUCE GUSTY CONDITIONS AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS RIDGE TOPS.

WENT A BLEND OF MET AND MAV NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SLIGHTLY WARMER UNDER STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND HIGHS IN THE MID 60S FOR THE
LOWLANDS...MID 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED BEGINNING THE PERIOD...BUT THIS WILL END QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING INTO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY.

A WEAKENING 500 MB TROUGH WILL ALLOW COLD TEMPERATURES TO DIP SOUTH
AND COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS BEFORE ENDING IN
THE AFTERNOON.  THE MOUNTAINS WILL HOLD ON TO A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THANKSGIVING...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SOME PRECIPITATION IN SE OHIO AS A FEW RIPPLES MOVE ALONG THE
HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR SNOW SHOWERS MAY REDUCE VSBY TO MVFR IN THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD BREAK TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

SFC FLOW WILL BE W OVERNIGHT AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON
FRI.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR STRATUS MAY EXPAND IN COVERAGE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         FRI 11/21/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RAIN AND CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/MZ/30
NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW









000
FXUS61 KRLX 210732
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
232 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE STARVED NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSES FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND THIS
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS WET WEATHER SUNDAY. COOLER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 PM UPDATE...
STRATOCU A LITTLE SLOW TO FORM OR ADVECT IN. OTHERWISE FCST ON
TRACK.

700 PM UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.

PREV DISCN...
CLOUDS SCATTERED OUT FASTER THAN EXPECTED TODAY...AND HAVE RAISED
HIGHS JUST A TOUCH IN AREAS WHERE WE ARE ALREADY AT/NEAR PREVIOUS
HIGH FORECAST FOR TODAY. FLOW BEGINS TRANSITIONING TO NW AS UPPER
TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE...AS IT MAINLY REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH. 850MB TEMPS
ARE DROPPING DURING THIS TIME...BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 12Z FRIDAY
MORNING. RULE OF THUMB IS TO LINGER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
UNTIL THE 850MB TEMP TROUGH PASSES. SO HAVE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN QUICKLY COMING TO AN
END AS THE SUN RISES. IN ALL...HAVE GENERALLY UP TO AN INCH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WITH NW FLOW...WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDS A BIT
LONGER.

STAYED GENERALLY BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET FOR LOWS TONIGHT...ENDING
UP A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ACROSS THE COAL FIELDS. MADE ONLY
MINIMAL CHANGES TO HIGHS FOR FRIDAY BY BLENDING IN BIAS-CORRECTED
CONSENSUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH DRY AND WARM WEATHER
SATURDAY...BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID TO LOW
LEVELS BRINGING A WARM FRONT WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

PCPN INCREASES SUNDAY WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTH...PUSHING HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT INTO THE REGION. H850
TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO 11C...WARM ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO FALL AS
RAIN. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS REMAINS SUNDAY. KEEP LIKELY POPS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY NORTHERN SECTIONS PER MODELS CONSENSUS
ON THE STRONGEST FORCING.

STRONG WINDS AT H50 REACHING 60-70 KNOTS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
CONDITIONS MAINLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS UNDER UPGLIDE FLOW.

STRONGER WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON
SUNDAY...TO PRODUCE GUSTY CONDITIONS AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS RIDGE TOPS.

WENT A BLEND OF MET AND MAV NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SLIGHTLY WARMER UNDER STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND HIGHS IN THE MID 60S FOR THE
LOWLANDS...MID 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED BEGINNING THE PERIOD...BUT THIS WILL END QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING INTO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY.

A WEAKENING 500 MB TROUGH WILL ALLOW COLD TEMPERATURES TO DIP SOUTH
AND COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS BEFORE ENDING IN
THE AFTERNOON.  THE MOUNTAINS WILL HOLD ON TO A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THANKSGIVING...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SOME PRECIPITATION IN SE OHIO AS A FEW RIPPLES MOVE ALONG THE
HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR SNOW SHOWERS MAY REDUCE VSBY TO MVFR IN THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD BREAK TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

SFC FLOW WILL BE W OVERNIGHT AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON
FRI.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR STRATUS MAY EXPAND IN COVERAGE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         FRI 11/21/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RAIN AND CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/MZ/30
NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW









000
FXUS61 KRLX 210732
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
232 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE STARVED NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSES FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND THIS
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS WET WEATHER SUNDAY. COOLER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 PM UPDATE...
STRATOCU A LITTLE SLOW TO FORM OR ADVECT IN. OTHERWISE FCST ON
TRACK.

700 PM UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.

PREV DISCN...
CLOUDS SCATTERED OUT FASTER THAN EXPECTED TODAY...AND HAVE RAISED
HIGHS JUST A TOUCH IN AREAS WHERE WE ARE ALREADY AT/NEAR PREVIOUS
HIGH FORECAST FOR TODAY. FLOW BEGINS TRANSITIONING TO NW AS UPPER
TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE...AS IT MAINLY REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH. 850MB TEMPS
ARE DROPPING DURING THIS TIME...BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 12Z FRIDAY
MORNING. RULE OF THUMB IS TO LINGER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
UNTIL THE 850MB TEMP TROUGH PASSES. SO HAVE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN QUICKLY COMING TO AN
END AS THE SUN RISES. IN ALL...HAVE GENERALLY UP TO AN INCH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WITH NW FLOW...WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDS A BIT
LONGER.

STAYED GENERALLY BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET FOR LOWS TONIGHT...ENDING
UP A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ACROSS THE COAL FIELDS. MADE ONLY
MINIMAL CHANGES TO HIGHS FOR FRIDAY BY BLENDING IN BIAS-CORRECTED
CONSENSUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH DRY AND WARM WEATHER
SATURDAY...BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID TO LOW
LEVELS BRINGING A WARM FRONT WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

PCPN INCREASES SUNDAY WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTH...PUSHING HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT INTO THE REGION. H850
TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO 11C...WARM ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO FALL AS
RAIN. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS REMAINS SUNDAY. KEEP LIKELY POPS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY NORTHERN SECTIONS PER MODELS CONSENSUS
ON THE STRONGEST FORCING.

STRONG WINDS AT H50 REACHING 60-70 KNOTS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
CONDITIONS MAINLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS UNDER UPGLIDE FLOW.

STRONGER WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON
SUNDAY...TO PRODUCE GUSTY CONDITIONS AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS RIDGE TOPS.

WENT A BLEND OF MET AND MAV NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SLIGHTLY WARMER UNDER STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND HIGHS IN THE MID 60S FOR THE
LOWLANDS...MID 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED BEGINNING THE PERIOD...BUT THIS WILL END QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING INTO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY.

A WEAKENING 500 MB TROUGH WILL ALLOW COLD TEMPERATURES TO DIP SOUTH
AND COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS BEFORE ENDING IN
THE AFTERNOON.  THE MOUNTAINS WILL HOLD ON TO A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THANKSGIVING...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SOME PRECIPITATION IN SE OHIO AS A FEW RIPPLES MOVE ALONG THE
HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR SNOW SHOWERS MAY REDUCE VSBY TO MVFR IN THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD BREAK TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

SFC FLOW WILL BE W OVERNIGHT AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON
FRI.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR STRATUS MAY EXPAND IN COVERAGE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         FRI 11/21/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RAIN AND CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/MZ/30
NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW









000
FXUS61 KRLX 210537
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1237 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE STARVED NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSES FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND THIS
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS WET WEATHER SUNDAY. COOLER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
930 PM UPDATE...
STRATOCU A LITTLE SLOW TO FORM OR ADVECT IN. OTHERWISE FCST ON
TRACK.

700 PM UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.

PREV DISCN...
CLOUDS SCATTERED OUT FASTER THAN EXPECTED TODAY...AND HAVE RAISED
HIGHS JUST A TOUCH IN AREAS WHERE WE ARE ALREADY AT/NEAR PREVIOUS
HIGH FORECAST FOR TODAY. FLOW BEGINS TRANSITIONING TO NW AS UPPER
TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE...AS IT MAINLY REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH. 850MB TEMPS
ARE DROPPING DURING THIS TIME...BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 12Z FRIDAY
MORNING. RULE OF THUMB IS TO LINGER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
UNTIL THE 850MB TEMP TROUGH PASSES. SO HAVE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN QUICKLY COMING TO AN
END AS THE SUN RISES. IN ALL...HAVE GENERALLY UP TO AN INCH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WITH NW FLOW...WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDS A BIT
LONGER.

STAYED GENERALLY BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET FOR LOWS TONIGHT...ENDING
UP A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ACROSS THE COAL FIELDS. MADE ONLY
MINIMAL CHANGES TO HIGHS FOR FRIDAY BY BLENDING IN BIAS-CORRECTED
CONSENSUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUCH OF THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AND WARM ON SATURDAY...AS
SURFACE  HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST....AND A ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT TAKES HOLD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FROM THE SOUTH.
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS OR EVEN A WINTRY MIX ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH...ON SATURDAY...FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURRING OUT
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...BUT THIS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY BRIEF AS WARMER
AIR CONTINUES TO SURGE AHEAD OF SYSTEM INTO THE REGION.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS
STRONG SHORTWAVE...WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
ENOUGH WARM AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...THAT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THERE IS ALSO THE
POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION...BUT FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE IT
OUT OF FORECAST. IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS ALOFT...AND TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ON SUNDAY...WILL CREATE RATHER GUSTY CONDITIONS AT
TIMES ON SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS RIDGE TOPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND HIGHS IN THE MID 60S FOR THE
LOWLANDS...MID 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED BEGINNING THE PERIOD...BUT THIS WILL END QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING INTO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY.

A WEAKENING 500 MB TROUGH WILL ALLOW COLD TEMPERATURES TO DIP SOUTH
AND COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS BEFORE ENDING IN
THE AFTERNOON.  THE MOUNTAINS WILL HOLD ON TO A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THANKSGIVING...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SOME PRECIPITATION IN SE OHIO AS A FEW RIPPLES MOVE ALONG THE
HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR SNOW SHOWERS MAY REDUCE VSBY TO MVFR IN THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD BREAK TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

SFC FLOW WILL BE W OVERNIGHT AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON
FRI.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR STRATUS MAY EXPAND IN COVERAGE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   FRI 11/21/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RAIN AND CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/MZ/30
NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW








000
FXUS61 KRLX 210537
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1237 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE STARVED NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSES FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND THIS
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS WET WEATHER SUNDAY. COOLER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
930 PM UPDATE...
STRATOCU A LITTLE SLOW TO FORM OR ADVECT IN. OTHERWISE FCST ON
TRACK.

700 PM UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.

PREV DISCN...
CLOUDS SCATTERED OUT FASTER THAN EXPECTED TODAY...AND HAVE RAISED
HIGHS JUST A TOUCH IN AREAS WHERE WE ARE ALREADY AT/NEAR PREVIOUS
HIGH FORECAST FOR TODAY. FLOW BEGINS TRANSITIONING TO NW AS UPPER
TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE...AS IT MAINLY REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH. 850MB TEMPS
ARE DROPPING DURING THIS TIME...BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 12Z FRIDAY
MORNING. RULE OF THUMB IS TO LINGER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
UNTIL THE 850MB TEMP TROUGH PASSES. SO HAVE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN QUICKLY COMING TO AN
END AS THE SUN RISES. IN ALL...HAVE GENERALLY UP TO AN INCH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WITH NW FLOW...WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDS A BIT
LONGER.

STAYED GENERALLY BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET FOR LOWS TONIGHT...ENDING
UP A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ACROSS THE COAL FIELDS. MADE ONLY
MINIMAL CHANGES TO HIGHS FOR FRIDAY BY BLENDING IN BIAS-CORRECTED
CONSENSUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUCH OF THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AND WARM ON SATURDAY...AS
SURFACE  HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST....AND A ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT TAKES HOLD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FROM THE SOUTH.
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS OR EVEN A WINTRY MIX ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH...ON SATURDAY...FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURRING OUT
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...BUT THIS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY BRIEF AS WARMER
AIR CONTINUES TO SURGE AHEAD OF SYSTEM INTO THE REGION.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS
STRONG SHORTWAVE...WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
ENOUGH WARM AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...THAT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THERE IS ALSO THE
POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION...BUT FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE IT
OUT OF FORECAST. IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS ALOFT...AND TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ON SUNDAY...WILL CREATE RATHER GUSTY CONDITIONS AT
TIMES ON SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS RIDGE TOPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND HIGHS IN THE MID 60S FOR THE
LOWLANDS...MID 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED BEGINNING THE PERIOD...BUT THIS WILL END QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING INTO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY.

A WEAKENING 500 MB TROUGH WILL ALLOW COLD TEMPERATURES TO DIP SOUTH
AND COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS BEFORE ENDING IN
THE AFTERNOON.  THE MOUNTAINS WILL HOLD ON TO A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THANKSGIVING...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SOME PRECIPITATION IN SE OHIO AS A FEW RIPPLES MOVE ALONG THE
HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR SNOW SHOWERS MAY REDUCE VSBY TO MVFR IN THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD BREAK TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

SFC FLOW WILL BE W OVERNIGHT AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON
FRI.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR STRATUS MAY EXPAND IN COVERAGE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   FRI 11/21/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RAIN AND CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/MZ/30
NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW








000
FXUS61 KRLX 210537
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1237 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE STARVED NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSES FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND THIS
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS WET WEATHER SUNDAY. COOLER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
930 PM UPDATE...
STRATOCU A LITTLE SLOW TO FORM OR ADVECT IN. OTHERWISE FCST ON
TRACK.

700 PM UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.

PREV DISCN...
CLOUDS SCATTERED OUT FASTER THAN EXPECTED TODAY...AND HAVE RAISED
HIGHS JUST A TOUCH IN AREAS WHERE WE ARE ALREADY AT/NEAR PREVIOUS
HIGH FORECAST FOR TODAY. FLOW BEGINS TRANSITIONING TO NW AS UPPER
TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE...AS IT MAINLY REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH. 850MB TEMPS
ARE DROPPING DURING THIS TIME...BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 12Z FRIDAY
MORNING. RULE OF THUMB IS TO LINGER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
UNTIL THE 850MB TEMP TROUGH PASSES. SO HAVE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN QUICKLY COMING TO AN
END AS THE SUN RISES. IN ALL...HAVE GENERALLY UP TO AN INCH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WITH NW FLOW...WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDS A BIT
LONGER.

STAYED GENERALLY BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET FOR LOWS TONIGHT...ENDING
UP A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ACROSS THE COAL FIELDS. MADE ONLY
MINIMAL CHANGES TO HIGHS FOR FRIDAY BY BLENDING IN BIAS-CORRECTED
CONSENSUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUCH OF THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AND WARM ON SATURDAY...AS
SURFACE  HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST....AND A ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT TAKES HOLD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FROM THE SOUTH.
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS OR EVEN A WINTRY MIX ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH...ON SATURDAY...FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURRING OUT
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...BUT THIS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY BRIEF AS WARMER
AIR CONTINUES TO SURGE AHEAD OF SYSTEM INTO THE REGION.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS
STRONG SHORTWAVE...WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
ENOUGH WARM AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...THAT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THERE IS ALSO THE
POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION...BUT FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE IT
OUT OF FORECAST. IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS ALOFT...AND TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ON SUNDAY...WILL CREATE RATHER GUSTY CONDITIONS AT
TIMES ON SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS RIDGE TOPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND HIGHS IN THE MID 60S FOR THE
LOWLANDS...MID 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED BEGINNING THE PERIOD...BUT THIS WILL END QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING INTO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY.

A WEAKENING 500 MB TROUGH WILL ALLOW COLD TEMPERATURES TO DIP SOUTH
AND COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS BEFORE ENDING IN
THE AFTERNOON.  THE MOUNTAINS WILL HOLD ON TO A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THANKSGIVING...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SOME PRECIPITATION IN SE OHIO AS A FEW RIPPLES MOVE ALONG THE
HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR SNOW SHOWERS MAY REDUCE VSBY TO MVFR IN THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD BREAK TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

SFC FLOW WILL BE W OVERNIGHT AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON
FRI.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR STRATUS MAY EXPAND IN COVERAGE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   FRI 11/21/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RAIN AND CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/MZ/30
NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW








000
FXUS61 KRLX 210537
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1237 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE STARVED NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSES FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND THIS
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS WET WEATHER SUNDAY. COOLER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
930 PM UPDATE...
STRATOCU A LITTLE SLOW TO FORM OR ADVECT IN. OTHERWISE FCST ON
TRACK.

700 PM UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.

PREV DISCN...
CLOUDS SCATTERED OUT FASTER THAN EXPECTED TODAY...AND HAVE RAISED
HIGHS JUST A TOUCH IN AREAS WHERE WE ARE ALREADY AT/NEAR PREVIOUS
HIGH FORECAST FOR TODAY. FLOW BEGINS TRANSITIONING TO NW AS UPPER
TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE...AS IT MAINLY REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH. 850MB TEMPS
ARE DROPPING DURING THIS TIME...BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 12Z FRIDAY
MORNING. RULE OF THUMB IS TO LINGER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
UNTIL THE 850MB TEMP TROUGH PASSES. SO HAVE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN QUICKLY COMING TO AN
END AS THE SUN RISES. IN ALL...HAVE GENERALLY UP TO AN INCH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WITH NW FLOW...WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDS A BIT
LONGER.

STAYED GENERALLY BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET FOR LOWS TONIGHT...ENDING
UP A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ACROSS THE COAL FIELDS. MADE ONLY
MINIMAL CHANGES TO HIGHS FOR FRIDAY BY BLENDING IN BIAS-CORRECTED
CONSENSUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUCH OF THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AND WARM ON SATURDAY...AS
SURFACE  HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST....AND A ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT TAKES HOLD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FROM THE SOUTH.
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS OR EVEN A WINTRY MIX ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH...ON SATURDAY...FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURRING OUT
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...BUT THIS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY BRIEF AS WARMER
AIR CONTINUES TO SURGE AHEAD OF SYSTEM INTO THE REGION.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS
STRONG SHORTWAVE...WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
ENOUGH WARM AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...THAT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THERE IS ALSO THE
POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION...BUT FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE IT
OUT OF FORECAST. IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS ALOFT...AND TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ON SUNDAY...WILL CREATE RATHER GUSTY CONDITIONS AT
TIMES ON SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS RIDGE TOPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND HIGHS IN THE MID 60S FOR THE
LOWLANDS...MID 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED BEGINNING THE PERIOD...BUT THIS WILL END QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING INTO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY.

A WEAKENING 500 MB TROUGH WILL ALLOW COLD TEMPERATURES TO DIP SOUTH
AND COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS BEFORE ENDING IN
THE AFTERNOON.  THE MOUNTAINS WILL HOLD ON TO A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THANKSGIVING...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SOME PRECIPITATION IN SE OHIO AS A FEW RIPPLES MOVE ALONG THE
HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR SNOW SHOWERS MAY REDUCE VSBY TO MVFR IN THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD BREAK TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

SFC FLOW WILL BE W OVERNIGHT AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON
FRI.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR STRATUS MAY EXPAND IN COVERAGE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   FRI 11/21/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RAIN AND CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/MZ/30
NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW








000
FXUS61 KRLX 210227
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
927 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE STARVED NORTHWEST FLOW UPSLOPE OVERNIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSES FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND THIS
WEEKEND.  LOW PRESSURE BRINGS WET WEATHER SUNDAY.  COOLER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
930 PM UPDATE...
STRATOCU A LITTLE SLOW TO FORM OR ADVECT IN. OTHERWISE FCST ON
TRACK.

700 PM UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.

PREV DISCN...
CLOUDS SCATTERED OUT FASTER THAN EXPECTED TODAY...AND HAVE RAISED
HIGHS JUST A TOUCH IN AREAS WHERE WE ARE ALREADY AT/NEAR PREVIOUS
HIGH FORECAST FOR TODAY. FLOW BEGINS TRANSITIONING TO NW AS UPPER
TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE...AS IT MAINLY REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH. 850MB TEMPS
ARE DROPPING DURING THIS TIME...BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 12Z FRIDAY
MORNING. RULE OF THUMB IS TO LINGER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
UNTIL THE 850MB TEMP TROUGH PASSES. SO HAVE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN QUICKLY COMING TO AN
END AS THE SUN RISES. IN ALL...HAVE GENERALLY UP TO AN INCH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WITH NW FLOW...WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDS A BIT
LONGER.

STAYED GENERALLY BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET FOR LOWS TONIGHT...ENDING
UP A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ACROSS THE COAL FIELDS. MADE ONLY
MINIMAL CHANGES TO HIGHS FOR FRIDAY BY BLENDING IN BIAS-CORRECTED
CONSENSUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUCH OF THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AND WARM ON SATURDAY...AS
SURFACE  HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST....AND A ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT TAKES HOLD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FROM THE SOUTH.
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS OR EVEN A WINTRY MIX ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH...ON SATURDAY...FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURRING OUT
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...BUT THIS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY BRIEF AS WARMER
AIR CONTINUES TO SURGE AHEAD OF SYSTEM INTO THE REGION.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS
STRONG SHORTWAVE...WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
ENOUGH WARM AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...THAT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THERE IS ALSO THE
POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION...BUT FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE IT
OUT OF FORECAST. IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS ALOFT...AND TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ON SUNDAY...WILL CREATE RATHER GUSTY CONDITIONS AT
TIMES ON SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS RIDGE TOPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND HIGHS IN THE MID 60S FOR THE
LOWLANDS...MID 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED BEGINNING THE PERIOD...BUT THIS WILL END QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING INTO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY.

A WEAKENING 500 MB TROUGH WILL ALLOW COLD TEMPERATURES TO DIP SOUTH
AND COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS BEFORE ENDING IN
THE AFTERNOON.  THE MOUNTAINS WILL HOLD ON TO A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THANKSGIVING...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SOME PRECIPITATION IN SE OHIO AS A FEW RIPPLES MOVE ALONG THE
HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR STRATOCU WILL REFORM ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND NRN
WV...AND ESPECIALLY THE WV MOUNTAINS...TONIGHT...AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE PASSES.  SNOW SHOWERS MAY REDUCE VSBY TO MVFR IN THE NRN
WV MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT.

THE STRATOCU WILL AGAIN BREAK UP FIRST THING IN THE MORNING...EXCEPT
IN AND NEAR THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS...WHERE IT WILL PERSIST INTO THE
AFTERNOON.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY FRI.

SFC FLOW WILL BE W OVERNIGHT AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON
FRI.  MODERATE W FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME NW OVERNIGHT AND THEN
GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON FRI.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF MVFR STRATOCU FORMATION OVERNIGHT AND
DISSIPATION ON FRI MAY VARY.  TIMING OF MVFR VSBY RESTRICTION IN
SNOW SHOWERS MAY VARY...AND MAY EVEN HAVE BRIEF DROPS INTO IFR
VISIBILITY ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES...OVERNIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 FRI
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RAIN AND CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/MZ/30
NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...TRM








000
FXUS61 KRLX 210002
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
702 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE STARVED NORTHWEST FLOW UPSLOPE OVERNIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSES FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND THIS
WEEKEND.  LOW PRESSURE BRINGS WET WEATHER SUNDAY.  COOLER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
700 PM UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.

PREV DISCN...
CLOUDS SCATTERED OUT FASTER THAN EXPECTED TODAY...AND HAVE RAISED
HIGHS JUST A TOUCH IN AREAS WHERE WE ARE ALREADY AT/NEAR PREVIOUS
HIGH FORECAST FOR TODAY. FLOW BEGINS TRANSITIONING TO NW AS UPPER
TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE...AS IT MAINLY REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH. 850MB TEMPS
ARE DROPPING DURING THIS TIME...BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 12Z FRIDAY
MORNING. RULE OF THUMB IS TO LINGER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
UNTIL THE 850MB TEMP TROUGH PASSES. SO HAVE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN QUICKLY COMING TO AN
END AS THE SUN RISES. IN ALL...HAVE GENERALLY UP TO AN INCH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WITH NW FLOW...WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDS A BIT
LONGER.

STAYED GENERALLY BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET FOR LOWS TONIGHT...ENDING
UP A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ACROSS THE COAL FIELDS. MADE ONLY
MINIMAL CHANGES TO HIGHS FOR FRIDAY BY BLENDING IN BIAS-CORRECTED
CONSENSUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUCH OF THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AND WARM ON SATURDAY...AS
SURFACE  HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST....AND A ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT TAKES HOLD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FROM THE SOUTH.
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS OR EVEN A WINTRY MIX ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH...ON SATURDAY...FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURRING OUT
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...BUT THIS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY BRIEF AS WARMER
AIR CONTINUES TO SURGE AHEAD OF SYSTEM INTO THE REGION.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS
STRONG SHORTWAVE...WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
ENOUGH WARM AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...THAT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THERE IS ALSO THE
POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION...BUT FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE IT
OUT OF FORECAST. IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS ALOFT...AND TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ON SUNDAY...WILL CREATE RATHER GUSTY CONDITIONS AT
TIMES ON SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS RIDGE TOPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND HIGHS IN THE MID 60S FOR THE
LOWLANDS...MID 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED BEGINNING THE PERIOD...BUT THIS WILL END QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING INTO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY.

A WEAKENING 500 MB TROUGH WILL ALLOW COLD TEMPERATURES TO DIP SOUTH
AND COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS BEFORE ENDING IN
THE AFTERNOON.  THE MOUNTAINS WILL HOLD ON TO A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THANKSGIVING...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SOME PRECIPITATION IN SE OHIO AS A FEW RIPPLES MOVE ALONG THE
HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR STRATOCU WILL REFORM ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND NRN
WV...AND ESPECIALLY THE WV MOUNTAINS...TONIGHT...AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE PASSES.  SNOW SHOWERS MAY REDUCE VSBY TO MVFR IN THE NRN
WV MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT.

THE STRATOCU WILL AGAIN BREAK UP FIRST THING IN THE MORNING...EXCEPT
IN AND NEAR THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS...WHERE IT WILL PERSIST INTO THE
AFTERNOON.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY FRI.

SFC FLOW WILL BE W OVERNIGHT AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON
FRI.  MODERATE W FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME NW OVERNIGHT AND THEN
GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON FRI.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF MVFR STRATOCU FORMATION OVERNIGHT AND
DISSIPATION ON FRI MAY VARY.  TIMING OF MVFR VSBY RESTRICTION IN
SNOW SHOWERS MAY VARY...AND MAY EVEN HAVE BRIEF DROPS INTO IFR
VISIBILITY ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES...OVERNIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 FRI
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RAIN AND CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/30/TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...TRM






000
FXUS61 KRLX 210002
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
702 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE STARVED NORTHWEST FLOW UPSLOPE OVERNIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSES FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND THIS
WEEKEND.  LOW PRESSURE BRINGS WET WEATHER SUNDAY.  COOLER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
700 PM UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.

PREV DISCN...
CLOUDS SCATTERED OUT FASTER THAN EXPECTED TODAY...AND HAVE RAISED
HIGHS JUST A TOUCH IN AREAS WHERE WE ARE ALREADY AT/NEAR PREVIOUS
HIGH FORECAST FOR TODAY. FLOW BEGINS TRANSITIONING TO NW AS UPPER
TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE...AS IT MAINLY REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH. 850MB TEMPS
ARE DROPPING DURING THIS TIME...BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 12Z FRIDAY
MORNING. RULE OF THUMB IS TO LINGER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
UNTIL THE 850MB TEMP TROUGH PASSES. SO HAVE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN QUICKLY COMING TO AN
END AS THE SUN RISES. IN ALL...HAVE GENERALLY UP TO AN INCH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WITH NW FLOW...WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDS A BIT
LONGER.

STAYED GENERALLY BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET FOR LOWS TONIGHT...ENDING
UP A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ACROSS THE COAL FIELDS. MADE ONLY
MINIMAL CHANGES TO HIGHS FOR FRIDAY BY BLENDING IN BIAS-CORRECTED
CONSENSUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUCH OF THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AND WARM ON SATURDAY...AS
SURFACE  HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST....AND A ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT TAKES HOLD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FROM THE SOUTH.
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS OR EVEN A WINTRY MIX ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH...ON SATURDAY...FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURRING OUT
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...BUT THIS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY BRIEF AS WARMER
AIR CONTINUES TO SURGE AHEAD OF SYSTEM INTO THE REGION.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS
STRONG SHORTWAVE...WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
ENOUGH WARM AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...THAT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THERE IS ALSO THE
POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION...BUT FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE IT
OUT OF FORECAST. IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS ALOFT...AND TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ON SUNDAY...WILL CREATE RATHER GUSTY CONDITIONS AT
TIMES ON SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS RIDGE TOPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND HIGHS IN THE MID 60S FOR THE
LOWLANDS...MID 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED BEGINNING THE PERIOD...BUT THIS WILL END QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING INTO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY.

A WEAKENING 500 MB TROUGH WILL ALLOW COLD TEMPERATURES TO DIP SOUTH
AND COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS BEFORE ENDING IN
THE AFTERNOON.  THE MOUNTAINS WILL HOLD ON TO A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THANKSGIVING...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SOME PRECIPITATION IN SE OHIO AS A FEW RIPPLES MOVE ALONG THE
HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR STRATOCU WILL REFORM ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND NRN
WV...AND ESPECIALLY THE WV MOUNTAINS...TONIGHT...AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE PASSES.  SNOW SHOWERS MAY REDUCE VSBY TO MVFR IN THE NRN
WV MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT.

THE STRATOCU WILL AGAIN BREAK UP FIRST THING IN THE MORNING...EXCEPT
IN AND NEAR THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS...WHERE IT WILL PERSIST INTO THE
AFTERNOON.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY FRI.

SFC FLOW WILL BE W OVERNIGHT AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON
FRI.  MODERATE W FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME NW OVERNIGHT AND THEN
GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON FRI.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF MVFR STRATOCU FORMATION OVERNIGHT AND
DISSIPATION ON FRI MAY VARY.  TIMING OF MVFR VSBY RESTRICTION IN
SNOW SHOWERS MAY VARY...AND MAY EVEN HAVE BRIEF DROPS INTO IFR
VISIBILITY ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES...OVERNIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 FRI
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RAIN AND CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/30/TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...TRM






000
FXUS61 KRLX 210002
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
702 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE STARVED NORTHWEST FLOW UPSLOPE OVERNIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSES FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND THIS
WEEKEND.  LOW PRESSURE BRINGS WET WEATHER SUNDAY.  COOLER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
700 PM UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.

PREV DISCN...
CLOUDS SCATTERED OUT FASTER THAN EXPECTED TODAY...AND HAVE RAISED
HIGHS JUST A TOUCH IN AREAS WHERE WE ARE ALREADY AT/NEAR PREVIOUS
HIGH FORECAST FOR TODAY. FLOW BEGINS TRANSITIONING TO NW AS UPPER
TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE...AS IT MAINLY REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH. 850MB TEMPS
ARE DROPPING DURING THIS TIME...BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 12Z FRIDAY
MORNING. RULE OF THUMB IS TO LINGER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
UNTIL THE 850MB TEMP TROUGH PASSES. SO HAVE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN QUICKLY COMING TO AN
END AS THE SUN RISES. IN ALL...HAVE GENERALLY UP TO AN INCH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WITH NW FLOW...WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDS A BIT
LONGER.

STAYED GENERALLY BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET FOR LOWS TONIGHT...ENDING
UP A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ACROSS THE COAL FIELDS. MADE ONLY
MINIMAL CHANGES TO HIGHS FOR FRIDAY BY BLENDING IN BIAS-CORRECTED
CONSENSUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUCH OF THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AND WARM ON SATURDAY...AS
SURFACE  HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST....AND A ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT TAKES HOLD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FROM THE SOUTH.
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS OR EVEN A WINTRY MIX ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH...ON SATURDAY...FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURRING OUT
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...BUT THIS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY BRIEF AS WARMER
AIR CONTINUES TO SURGE AHEAD OF SYSTEM INTO THE REGION.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS
STRONG SHORTWAVE...WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
ENOUGH WARM AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...THAT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THERE IS ALSO THE
POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION...BUT FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE IT
OUT OF FORECAST. IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS ALOFT...AND TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ON SUNDAY...WILL CREATE RATHER GUSTY CONDITIONS AT
TIMES ON SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS RIDGE TOPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND HIGHS IN THE MID 60S FOR THE
LOWLANDS...MID 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED BEGINNING THE PERIOD...BUT THIS WILL END QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING INTO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY.

A WEAKENING 500 MB TROUGH WILL ALLOW COLD TEMPERATURES TO DIP SOUTH
AND COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS BEFORE ENDING IN
THE AFTERNOON.  THE MOUNTAINS WILL HOLD ON TO A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THANKSGIVING...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SOME PRECIPITATION IN SE OHIO AS A FEW RIPPLES MOVE ALONG THE
HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR STRATOCU WILL REFORM ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND NRN
WV...AND ESPECIALLY THE WV MOUNTAINS...TONIGHT...AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE PASSES.  SNOW SHOWERS MAY REDUCE VSBY TO MVFR IN THE NRN
WV MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT.

THE STRATOCU WILL AGAIN BREAK UP FIRST THING IN THE MORNING...EXCEPT
IN AND NEAR THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS...WHERE IT WILL PERSIST INTO THE
AFTERNOON.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY FRI.

SFC FLOW WILL BE W OVERNIGHT AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON
FRI.  MODERATE W FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME NW OVERNIGHT AND THEN
GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON FRI.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF MVFR STRATOCU FORMATION OVERNIGHT AND
DISSIPATION ON FRI MAY VARY.  TIMING OF MVFR VSBY RESTRICTION IN
SNOW SHOWERS MAY VARY...AND MAY EVEN HAVE BRIEF DROPS INTO IFR
VISIBILITY ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES...OVERNIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 FRI
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RAIN AND CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/30/TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...TRM






000
FXUS61 KRLX 210002
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
702 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE STARVED NORTHWEST FLOW UPSLOPE OVERNIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSES FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND THIS
WEEKEND.  LOW PRESSURE BRINGS WET WEATHER SUNDAY.  COOLER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
700 PM UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.

PREV DISCN...
CLOUDS SCATTERED OUT FASTER THAN EXPECTED TODAY...AND HAVE RAISED
HIGHS JUST A TOUCH IN AREAS WHERE WE ARE ALREADY AT/NEAR PREVIOUS
HIGH FORECAST FOR TODAY. FLOW BEGINS TRANSITIONING TO NW AS UPPER
TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE...AS IT MAINLY REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH. 850MB TEMPS
ARE DROPPING DURING THIS TIME...BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 12Z FRIDAY
MORNING. RULE OF THUMB IS TO LINGER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
UNTIL THE 850MB TEMP TROUGH PASSES. SO HAVE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN QUICKLY COMING TO AN
END AS THE SUN RISES. IN ALL...HAVE GENERALLY UP TO AN INCH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WITH NW FLOW...WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDS A BIT
LONGER.

STAYED GENERALLY BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET FOR LOWS TONIGHT...ENDING
UP A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ACROSS THE COAL FIELDS. MADE ONLY
MINIMAL CHANGES TO HIGHS FOR FRIDAY BY BLENDING IN BIAS-CORRECTED
CONSENSUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUCH OF THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AND WARM ON SATURDAY...AS
SURFACE  HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST....AND A ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT TAKES HOLD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FROM THE SOUTH.
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS OR EVEN A WINTRY MIX ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH...ON SATURDAY...FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURRING OUT
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...BUT THIS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY BRIEF AS WARMER
AIR CONTINUES TO SURGE AHEAD OF SYSTEM INTO THE REGION.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS
STRONG SHORTWAVE...WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
ENOUGH WARM AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...THAT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THERE IS ALSO THE
POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION...BUT FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE IT
OUT OF FORECAST. IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS ALOFT...AND TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ON SUNDAY...WILL CREATE RATHER GUSTY CONDITIONS AT
TIMES ON SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS RIDGE TOPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND HIGHS IN THE MID 60S FOR THE
LOWLANDS...MID 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED BEGINNING THE PERIOD...BUT THIS WILL END QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING INTO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY.

A WEAKENING 500 MB TROUGH WILL ALLOW COLD TEMPERATURES TO DIP SOUTH
AND COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS BEFORE ENDING IN
THE AFTERNOON.  THE MOUNTAINS WILL HOLD ON TO A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THANKSGIVING...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SOME PRECIPITATION IN SE OHIO AS A FEW RIPPLES MOVE ALONG THE
HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR STRATOCU WILL REFORM ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND NRN
WV...AND ESPECIALLY THE WV MOUNTAINS...TONIGHT...AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE PASSES.  SNOW SHOWERS MAY REDUCE VSBY TO MVFR IN THE NRN
WV MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT.

THE STRATOCU WILL AGAIN BREAK UP FIRST THING IN THE MORNING...EXCEPT
IN AND NEAR THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS...WHERE IT WILL PERSIST INTO THE
AFTERNOON.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY FRI.

SFC FLOW WILL BE W OVERNIGHT AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON
FRI.  MODERATE W FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME NW OVERNIGHT AND THEN
GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON FRI.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF MVFR STRATOCU FORMATION OVERNIGHT AND
DISSIPATION ON FRI MAY VARY.  TIMING OF MVFR VSBY RESTRICTION IN
SNOW SHOWERS MAY VARY...AND MAY EVEN HAVE BRIEF DROPS INTO IFR
VISIBILITY ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES...OVERNIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 FRI
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RAIN AND CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/30/TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...TRM






000
FXUS61 KRLX 201844
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
144 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE STARVED NORTHWEST UPSLOPE INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BRINGS PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND. DEEPER
MOISTURE QUICKLY THROUGH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS SCATTERED OUT FASTER THAN EXPECTED TODAY...AND HAVE RAISED
HIGHS JUST A TOUCH IN AREAS WHERE WE ARE ALREADY AT/NEAR PREVIOUS
HIGH FORECAST FOR TODAY. FLOW BEGINS TRANSITIONING TO NW AS UPPER
TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE...AS IT MAINLY REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH. 850MB TEMPS
ARE DROPPING DURING THIS TIME...BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 12Z FRIDAY
MORNING. RULE OF THUMB IS TO LINGER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
UNTIL THE 850MB TEMP TROUGH PASSES. SO HAVE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN QUICKLY COMING TO AN
END AS THE SUN RISES. IN ALL...HAVE GENERALLY UP TO AN INCH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WITH NW FLOW...WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDS A BIT
LONGER.

STAYED GENERALLY BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET FOR LOWS TONIGHT...ENDING
UP A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ACROSS THE COAL FIELDS. MADE ONLY
MINIMAL CHANGES TO HIGHS FOR FRIDAY BY BLENDING IN BIAS-CORRECTED
CONSENSUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUCH OF THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AND WARM ON SATURDAY...AS
SURFACE  HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST....AND A ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT TAKES HOLD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FROM THE SOUTH.
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS OR EVEN A WINTRY MIX ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH...ON SATURDAY...FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURRING OUT
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...BUT THIS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY BRIEF AS WARMER
AIR CONTINUES TO SURGE AHEAD OF SYSTEM INTO THE REGION.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS
STRONG SHORTWAVE...WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
ENOUGH WARM AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...THAT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THERE IS ALSO THE
POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION...BUT FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE IT
OUT OF FORECAST. IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS ALOFT...AND TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ON SUNDAY...WILL CREATE RATHER GUSTY CONDITIONS AT
TIMES ON SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS RIDGE TOPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE
50S OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND HIGHS IN THE MID 60S FOR THE LOWLANDS...MID
50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
BEGINNING THE PERIOD...BUT THIS WILL END QUICKLY TRANSITIONING
INTO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY.

A WEAKENING 500 MB TROUGH WILL ALLOW COLD TEMPERATURES TO DIP SOUTH
AND COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS BEFORE ENDING IN
THE AFTERNOON.  THE MOUNTAINS WILL HOLD ON TO A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THANKSGIVING...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SOME PRECIPITATION IN SE OHIO AS A FEW RIPPLES MOVE ALONG THE
HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED...AND EXPECT VFR INTO THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS PASSES TONIGHT WITH FLOW BECOMING NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
INDUCE SOME UPSLOPE TYPE SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. VERY LIMITED MOISTURE
WITH THIS...SO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON DROPS IN CIG/VIS...BUT HAVE
MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT...WITH MVFR VIS IN SNOW SHOWERS
AT EKN. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS MOVING IN FRIDAY...WITH SKIES
BECOMING CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY W/NW WINDS TODAY WILL
DECREASE ACROSS THE WEST TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW
TOMORROW ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. NW WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CATEGORY RESTRICTIONS MAY VARY
OVERNIGHT. MAY EVEN HAVE BRIEF DROPS INTO IFR VISIBILITY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RAIN AND CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/30
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...MZ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 201844
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
144 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE STARVED NORTHWEST UPSLOPE INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BRINGS PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND. DEEPER
MOISTURE QUICKLY THROUGH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS SCATTERED OUT FASTER THAN EXPECTED TODAY...AND HAVE RAISED
HIGHS JUST A TOUCH IN AREAS WHERE WE ARE ALREADY AT/NEAR PREVIOUS
HIGH FORECAST FOR TODAY. FLOW BEGINS TRANSITIONING TO NW AS UPPER
TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE...AS IT MAINLY REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH. 850MB TEMPS
ARE DROPPING DURING THIS TIME...BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 12Z FRIDAY
MORNING. RULE OF THUMB IS TO LINGER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
UNTIL THE 850MB TEMP TROUGH PASSES. SO HAVE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN QUICKLY COMING TO AN
END AS THE SUN RISES. IN ALL...HAVE GENERALLY UP TO AN INCH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WITH NW FLOW...WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDS A BIT
LONGER.

STAYED GENERALLY BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET FOR LOWS TONIGHT...ENDING
UP A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ACROSS THE COAL FIELDS. MADE ONLY
MINIMAL CHANGES TO HIGHS FOR FRIDAY BY BLENDING IN BIAS-CORRECTED
CONSENSUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUCH OF THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AND WARM ON SATURDAY...AS
SURFACE  HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST....AND A ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT TAKES HOLD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FROM THE SOUTH.
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS OR EVEN A WINTRY MIX ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH...ON SATURDAY...FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURRING OUT
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...BUT THIS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY BRIEF AS WARMER
AIR CONTINUES TO SURGE AHEAD OF SYSTEM INTO THE REGION.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS
STRONG SHORTWAVE...WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
ENOUGH WARM AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...THAT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THERE IS ALSO THE
POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION...BUT FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE IT
OUT OF FORECAST. IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS ALOFT...AND TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ON SUNDAY...WILL CREATE RATHER GUSTY CONDITIONS AT
TIMES ON SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS RIDGE TOPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE
50S OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND HIGHS IN THE MID 60S FOR THE LOWLANDS...MID
50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
BEGINNING THE PERIOD...BUT THIS WILL END QUICKLY TRANSITIONING
INTO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY.

A WEAKENING 500 MB TROUGH WILL ALLOW COLD TEMPERATURES TO DIP SOUTH
AND COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS BEFORE ENDING IN
THE AFTERNOON.  THE MOUNTAINS WILL HOLD ON TO A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THANKSGIVING...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SOME PRECIPITATION IN SE OHIO AS A FEW RIPPLES MOVE ALONG THE
HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED...AND EXPECT VFR INTO THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS PASSES TONIGHT WITH FLOW BECOMING NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
INDUCE SOME UPSLOPE TYPE SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. VERY LIMITED MOISTURE
WITH THIS...SO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON DROPS IN CIG/VIS...BUT HAVE
MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT...WITH MVFR VIS IN SNOW SHOWERS
AT EKN. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS MOVING IN FRIDAY...WITH SKIES
BECOMING CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY W/NW WINDS TODAY WILL
DECREASE ACROSS THE WEST TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW
TOMORROW ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. NW WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CATEGORY RESTRICTIONS MAY VARY
OVERNIGHT. MAY EVEN HAVE BRIEF DROPS INTO IFR VISIBILITY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RAIN AND CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/30
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...MZ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 201844
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
144 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE STARVED NORTHWEST UPSLOPE INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BRINGS PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND. DEEPER
MOISTURE QUICKLY THROUGH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS SCATTERED OUT FASTER THAN EXPECTED TODAY...AND HAVE RAISED
HIGHS JUST A TOUCH IN AREAS WHERE WE ARE ALREADY AT/NEAR PREVIOUS
HIGH FORECAST FOR TODAY. FLOW BEGINS TRANSITIONING TO NW AS UPPER
TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE...AS IT MAINLY REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH. 850MB TEMPS
ARE DROPPING DURING THIS TIME...BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 12Z FRIDAY
MORNING. RULE OF THUMB IS TO LINGER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
UNTIL THE 850MB TEMP TROUGH PASSES. SO HAVE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN QUICKLY COMING TO AN
END AS THE SUN RISES. IN ALL...HAVE GENERALLY UP TO AN INCH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WITH NW FLOW...WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDS A BIT
LONGER.

STAYED GENERALLY BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET FOR LOWS TONIGHT...ENDING
UP A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ACROSS THE COAL FIELDS. MADE ONLY
MINIMAL CHANGES TO HIGHS FOR FRIDAY BY BLENDING IN BIAS-CORRECTED
CONSENSUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUCH OF THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AND WARM ON SATURDAY...AS
SURFACE  HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST....AND A ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT TAKES HOLD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FROM THE SOUTH.
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS OR EVEN A WINTRY MIX ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH...ON SATURDAY...FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURRING OUT
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...BUT THIS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY BRIEF AS WARMER
AIR CONTINUES TO SURGE AHEAD OF SYSTEM INTO THE REGION.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS
STRONG SHORTWAVE...WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
ENOUGH WARM AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...THAT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THERE IS ALSO THE
POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION...BUT FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE IT
OUT OF FORECAST. IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS ALOFT...AND TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ON SUNDAY...WILL CREATE RATHER GUSTY CONDITIONS AT
TIMES ON SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS RIDGE TOPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE
50S OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND HIGHS IN THE MID 60S FOR THE LOWLANDS...MID
50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
BEGINNING THE PERIOD...BUT THIS WILL END QUICKLY TRANSITIONING
INTO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY.

A WEAKENING 500 MB TROUGH WILL ALLOW COLD TEMPERATURES TO DIP SOUTH
AND COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS BEFORE ENDING IN
THE AFTERNOON.  THE MOUNTAINS WILL HOLD ON TO A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THANKSGIVING...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SOME PRECIPITATION IN SE OHIO AS A FEW RIPPLES MOVE ALONG THE
HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED...AND EXPECT VFR INTO THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS PASSES TONIGHT WITH FLOW BECOMING NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
INDUCE SOME UPSLOPE TYPE SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. VERY LIMITED MOISTURE
WITH THIS...SO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON DROPS IN CIG/VIS...BUT HAVE
MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT...WITH MVFR VIS IN SNOW SHOWERS
AT EKN. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS MOVING IN FRIDAY...WITH SKIES
BECOMING CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY W/NW WINDS TODAY WILL
DECREASE ACROSS THE WEST TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW
TOMORROW ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. NW WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CATEGORY RESTRICTIONS MAY VARY
OVERNIGHT. MAY EVEN HAVE BRIEF DROPS INTO IFR VISIBILITY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RAIN AND CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/30
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...MZ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 201844
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
144 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE STARVED NORTHWEST UPSLOPE INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BRINGS PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND. DEEPER
MOISTURE QUICKLY THROUGH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS SCATTERED OUT FASTER THAN EXPECTED TODAY...AND HAVE RAISED
HIGHS JUST A TOUCH IN AREAS WHERE WE ARE ALREADY AT/NEAR PREVIOUS
HIGH FORECAST FOR TODAY. FLOW BEGINS TRANSITIONING TO NW AS UPPER
TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE...AS IT MAINLY REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH. 850MB TEMPS
ARE DROPPING DURING THIS TIME...BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 12Z FRIDAY
MORNING. RULE OF THUMB IS TO LINGER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
UNTIL THE 850MB TEMP TROUGH PASSES. SO HAVE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN QUICKLY COMING TO AN
END AS THE SUN RISES. IN ALL...HAVE GENERALLY UP TO AN INCH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WITH NW FLOW...WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDS A BIT
LONGER.

STAYED GENERALLY BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET FOR LOWS TONIGHT...ENDING
UP A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ACROSS THE COAL FIELDS. MADE ONLY
MINIMAL CHANGES TO HIGHS FOR FRIDAY BY BLENDING IN BIAS-CORRECTED
CONSENSUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUCH OF THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AND WARM ON SATURDAY...AS
SURFACE  HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST....AND A ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT TAKES HOLD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FROM THE SOUTH.
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS OR EVEN A WINTRY MIX ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH...ON SATURDAY...FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURRING OUT
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...BUT THIS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY BRIEF AS WARMER
AIR CONTINUES TO SURGE AHEAD OF SYSTEM INTO THE REGION.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS
STRONG SHORTWAVE...WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
ENOUGH WARM AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...THAT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THERE IS ALSO THE
POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION...BUT FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE IT
OUT OF FORECAST. IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS ALOFT...AND TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ON SUNDAY...WILL CREATE RATHER GUSTY CONDITIONS AT
TIMES ON SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS RIDGE TOPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE
50S OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND HIGHS IN THE MID 60S FOR THE LOWLANDS...MID
50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
BEGINNING THE PERIOD...BUT THIS WILL END QUICKLY TRANSITIONING
INTO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY.

A WEAKENING 500 MB TROUGH WILL ALLOW COLD TEMPERATURES TO DIP SOUTH
AND COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS BEFORE ENDING IN
THE AFTERNOON.  THE MOUNTAINS WILL HOLD ON TO A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THANKSGIVING...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SOME PRECIPITATION IN SE OHIO AS A FEW RIPPLES MOVE ALONG THE
HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED...AND EXPECT VFR INTO THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS PASSES TONIGHT WITH FLOW BECOMING NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
INDUCE SOME UPSLOPE TYPE SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. VERY LIMITED MOISTURE
WITH THIS...SO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON DROPS IN CIG/VIS...BUT HAVE
MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT...WITH MVFR VIS IN SNOW SHOWERS
AT EKN. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS MOVING IN FRIDAY...WITH SKIES
BECOMING CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY W/NW WINDS TODAY WILL
DECREASE ACROSS THE WEST TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW
TOMORROW ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. NW WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CATEGORY RESTRICTIONS MAY VARY
OVERNIGHT. MAY EVEN HAVE BRIEF DROPS INTO IFR VISIBILITY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RAIN AND CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/30
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...MZ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 201810
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
110 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE STARVED NORTHWEST UPSLOPE INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BRINGS PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND. DEEPER
MOISTURE QUICKLY THROUGH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS SCATTERED OUT FASTER THAN EXPECTED TODAY...AND HAVE RAISED
HIGHS JUST A TOUCH IN AREAS WHERE WE ARE ALREADY AT/NEAR PREVIOUS
HIGH FORECAST FOR TODAY. FLOW BEGINS TRANSITIONING TO NW AS UPPER
TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE...AS IT MAINLY REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH. 850MB TEMPS
ARE DROPPING DURING THIS TIME...BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 12Z FRIDAY
MORNING. RULE OF THUMB IS TO LINGER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
UNTIL THE 850MB TEMP TROUGH PASSES. SO HAVE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN QUICKLY COMING TO AN
END AS THE SUN RISES. IN ALL...HAVE GENERALLY UP TO AN INCH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WITH NW FLOW...WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDS A BIT
LONGER.

STAYED GENERALLY BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET FOR LOWS TONIGHT...ENDING
UP A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ACROSS THE COAL FIELDS. MADE ONLY
MINIMAL CHANGES TO HIGHS FOR FRIDAY BY BLENDING IN BIAS-CORRECTED
CONSENSUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUCH OF THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AND WARM ON SATURDAY...AS
SURFACE  HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST....AND A ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT TAKES HOLD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FROM THE SOUTH.
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS OR EVEN A WINTRY MIX ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH...ON SATURDAY...FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURRING OUT
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...BUT THIS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY BRIEF AS WARMER
AIR CONTINUES TO SURGE AHEAD OF SYSTEM INTO THE REGION.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS
STRONG SHORTWAVE...WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
ENOUGH WARM AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...THAT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THERE IS ALSO THE
POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION...BUT FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE IT
OUT OF FORECAST. IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS ALOFT...AND TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ON SUNDAY...WILL CREATE RATHER GUSTY CONDITIONS AT
TIMES ON SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS RIDGE TOPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NOT A BAD WX TREND LEADING UP TOWARD THANKSGIVING WITH NO MAJOR
STORMS.

BOARD RIDGE SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE SOUTHEAST...WITH DISTURBANCES
RIDING NE THROUGH THE UPPER OH VALLEY WHILE 500 MB HEIGHTS STILL
RISE SLIGHTLY OVER CWA. KEEPING MOST OF CWA DRY SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT
HAVE SOME 20 AND 30 POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
OHIO.

HAVE DEEPER MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED HIGHER POPS ARRIVING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST 12Z TO 15Z SUNDAY...BUT QUICKLY MOVING
THROUGH ON SUNDAY...WITH LOWERING POPS SW TO NE BY LATE IN THE DAY.
WILL GO WITH A NONDIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRACE SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
RISING TEMPERATURES DURING THE PREDAWN FOR MOST COUNTIES...AS
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE.  WILL HOLD POCAHONTAS COUNTY
COLDER.

AT THIS POINT...NO NEED FOR ANY ADDITIONS TO OUR EMPTY HAZARDOUS
WEATHER POTENTIAL. IF THE MOISTURE INCREASE TRENDS A FEW HOURS
FASTER...THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE HIGHER FOR POCAHONTAS.
CURRENTLY...ONLY HAVE A HOUR OR SO OF MENTIONING THAT POSSIBILITY.

500 MB TROF REMAINING OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...THEN ONLY SHIFTING EAST AND WEAKENING ON THANKSGIVING EVE.
FROM THE WV DEER PERSPECTIVE...UNFORTUNATELY A MILDER THAN NORMAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE HUNTERS ON MONDAY. EVEN LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
DAWN MONDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

ONLY A GRADUAL COOLING DOWN IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.  COLD ENOUGH BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR A CHANCE OF
SOME SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED...AND EXPECT VFR INTO THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS PASSES TONIGHT WITH FLOW BECOMING NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
INDUCE SOME UPSLOPE TYPE SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. VERY LIMITED MOISTURE
WITH THIS...SO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON DROPS IN CIG/VIS...BUT HAVE
MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT...WITH MVFR VIS IN SNOW SHOWERS
AT EKN. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS MOVING IN FRIDAY...WITH SKIES
BECOMING CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY W/NW WINDS TODAY WILL
DECREASE ACROSS THE WEST TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW
TOMORROW ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. NW WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CATEGORY RESTRICTIONS MAY VARY
OVERNIGHT. MAY EVEN HAVE BRIEF DROPS INTO IFR VISIBILITY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RAIN AND CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/30
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...MZ








000
FXUS61 KRLX 201810
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
110 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE STARVED NORTHWEST UPSLOPE INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BRINGS PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND. DEEPER
MOISTURE QUICKLY THROUGH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS SCATTERED OUT FASTER THAN EXPECTED TODAY...AND HAVE RAISED
HIGHS JUST A TOUCH IN AREAS WHERE WE ARE ALREADY AT/NEAR PREVIOUS
HIGH FORECAST FOR TODAY. FLOW BEGINS TRANSITIONING TO NW AS UPPER
TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE...AS IT MAINLY REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH. 850MB TEMPS
ARE DROPPING DURING THIS TIME...BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 12Z FRIDAY
MORNING. RULE OF THUMB IS TO LINGER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
UNTIL THE 850MB TEMP TROUGH PASSES. SO HAVE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN QUICKLY COMING TO AN
END AS THE SUN RISES. IN ALL...HAVE GENERALLY UP TO AN INCH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WITH NW FLOW...WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDS A BIT
LONGER.

STAYED GENERALLY BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET FOR LOWS TONIGHT...ENDING
UP A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ACROSS THE COAL FIELDS. MADE ONLY
MINIMAL CHANGES TO HIGHS FOR FRIDAY BY BLENDING IN BIAS-CORRECTED
CONSENSUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUCH OF THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AND WARM ON SATURDAY...AS
SURFACE  HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST....AND A ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT TAKES HOLD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FROM THE SOUTH.
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS OR EVEN A WINTRY MIX ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH...ON SATURDAY...FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURRING OUT
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...BUT THIS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY BRIEF AS WARMER
AIR CONTINUES TO SURGE AHEAD OF SYSTEM INTO THE REGION.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS
STRONG SHORTWAVE...WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
ENOUGH WARM AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...THAT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THERE IS ALSO THE
POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION...BUT FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE IT
OUT OF FORECAST. IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS ALOFT...AND TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ON SUNDAY...WILL CREATE RATHER GUSTY CONDITIONS AT
TIMES ON SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS RIDGE TOPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NOT A BAD WX TREND LEADING UP TOWARD THANKSGIVING WITH NO MAJOR
STORMS.

BOARD RIDGE SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE SOUTHEAST...WITH DISTURBANCES
RIDING NE THROUGH THE UPPER OH VALLEY WHILE 500 MB HEIGHTS STILL
RISE SLIGHTLY OVER CWA. KEEPING MOST OF CWA DRY SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT
HAVE SOME 20 AND 30 POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
OHIO.

HAVE DEEPER MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED HIGHER POPS ARRIVING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST 12Z TO 15Z SUNDAY...BUT QUICKLY MOVING
THROUGH ON SUNDAY...WITH LOWERING POPS SW TO NE BY LATE IN THE DAY.
WILL GO WITH A NONDIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRACE SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
RISING TEMPERATURES DURING THE PREDAWN FOR MOST COUNTIES...AS
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE.  WILL HOLD POCAHONTAS COUNTY
COLDER.

AT THIS POINT...NO NEED FOR ANY ADDITIONS TO OUR EMPTY HAZARDOUS
WEATHER POTENTIAL. IF THE MOISTURE INCREASE TRENDS A FEW HOURS
FASTER...THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE HIGHER FOR POCAHONTAS.
CURRENTLY...ONLY HAVE A HOUR OR SO OF MENTIONING THAT POSSIBILITY.

500 MB TROF REMAINING OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...THEN ONLY SHIFTING EAST AND WEAKENING ON THANKSGIVING EVE.
FROM THE WV DEER PERSPECTIVE...UNFORTUNATELY A MILDER THAN NORMAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE HUNTERS ON MONDAY. EVEN LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
DAWN MONDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

ONLY A GRADUAL COOLING DOWN IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.  COLD ENOUGH BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR A CHANCE OF
SOME SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED...AND EXPECT VFR INTO THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS PASSES TONIGHT WITH FLOW BECOMING NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
INDUCE SOME UPSLOPE TYPE SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. VERY LIMITED MOISTURE
WITH THIS...SO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON DROPS IN CIG/VIS...BUT HAVE
MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT...WITH MVFR VIS IN SNOW SHOWERS
AT EKN. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS MOVING IN FRIDAY...WITH SKIES
BECOMING CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY W/NW WINDS TODAY WILL
DECREASE ACROSS THE WEST TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW
TOMORROW ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. NW WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CATEGORY RESTRICTIONS MAY VARY
OVERNIGHT. MAY EVEN HAVE BRIEF DROPS INTO IFR VISIBILITY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RAIN AND CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/30
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...MZ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 201744
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1244 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE STARVED NORTHWEST UPSLOPE INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BRINGS PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND. DEEPER
MOISTURE QUICKLY THROUGH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS SCATTERED OUT FASTER THAN EXPECTED TODAY...AND HAVE RAISED
HIGHS JUST A TOUCH IN AREAS WHERE WE ARE ALREADY AT/NEAR PREVIOUS
HIGH FORECAST FOR TODAY. FLOW BEGINS TRANSITIONING TO NW AS UPPER
TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE...AS IT MAINLY REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH. 850MB TEMPS
ARE DROPPING DURING THIS TIME...BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 12Z FRIDAY
MORNING. RULE OF THUMB IS TO LINGER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
UNTIL THE 850MB TEMP TROUGH PASSES. SO HAVE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN QUICKLY COMING TO AN
END AS THE SUN RISES. IN ALL...HAVE GENERALLY UP TO AN INCH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WITH NW FLOW...WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDS A BIT
LONGER.

STAYED GENERALLY BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET FOR LOWS TONIGHT...ENDING
UP A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ACROSS THE COAL FIELDS. MADE ONLY
MINIMAL CHANGES TO HIGHS FOR FRIDAY BY BLENDING IN BIAS-CORRECTED
CONSENSUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE E AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
TRANSITION TO MORE OF A ZONAL REGIME FRIDAY. STILL...WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES ON THE LOW SIDE...EXPECT TEMPS SIMILAR TO THURSDAY
DESPITE SUNSHINE. THERE PROBABLY WILL BE QUITE THE TEMP GRADIENT
FROM SW TO NE GIVEN THE TIGHT LOW LEVEL THERMAL PACKING DEVELOPING.

SURFACE HIGH LINGERS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME CIRRUS PASSING BY. A
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE S LATE WITH LOWER
CLOUDS ACROSS NE KY/SE OH. EXPECT ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...PARTICULARLY
IN THE TYPICAL COLD VALLEYS. WAA ALOFT WILL ALLOW HIGHEST PEAKS IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT...CREATING FOR QUITE
THE RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT BY MORNING.

SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH SOME SUN...EXCEPT SMALL CHANCE FOR
A SHRA OVER SE OH DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. EXPECT QUITE THE
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES PER WAA AND DEVELOPING DOWNSLOPING SE
FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE TEMPS SPIKING INTO THE MID 50S ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS SURGE SATURDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM
TROF AMPLIFICATION. WITH THE FLOW INCREASING...KEPT LOWS UP EXCEPT
ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. AGAIN...ANOTHER IMPRESSIVE RIDGE/VALLEY
SPLIT SHAPING UP FOR THE N MOUNTAINS. SUNDAY WILL MARK THE ARRIVAL
OF S STREAM SYSTEM AS IT TRIES TO PHASE WITH N BRANCH OVER THE UPPER
MS VALLEY. EXPECT A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW TO TRACK WELL W OF THE
AREA ON SUNDAY WITH THE TROF GOING NEGATIVE TILT. IMPRESSIVE
DYNAMICS AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR
STRONG WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL BAND AS IT RACES NE THRU THE AREA THE
FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. BROUGHT POPS DOWN QUICKLY WITH ARRIVAL OF DRY
SLOT IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS LOOKS TO CROSS 60F WITH WINDS STAYING
UP IN THE POST FRONTAL DRY SLOT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NOT A BAD WX TREND LEADING UP TOWARD THANKSGIVING WITH NO MAJOR
STORMS.

BOARD RIDGE SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE SOUTHEAST...WITH DISTURBANCES
RIDING NE THROUGH THE UPPER OH VALLEY WHILE 500 MB HEIGHTS STILL
RISE SLIGHTLY OVER CWA. KEEPING MOST OF CWA DRY SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT
HAVE SOME 20 AND 30 POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
OHIO.

HAVE DEEPER MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED HIGHER POPS ARRIVING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST 12Z TO 15Z SUNDAY...BUT QUICKLY MOVING
THROUGH ON SUNDAY...WITH LOWERING POPS SW TO NE BY LATE IN THE DAY.
WILL GO WITH A NONDIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRACE SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
RISING TEMPERATURES DURING THE PREDAWN FOR MOST COUNTIES...AS
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE.  WILL HOLD POCAHONTAS COUNTY
COLDER.

AT THIS POINT...NO NEED FOR ANY ADDITIONS TO OUR EMPTY HAZARDOUS
WEATHER POTENTIAL. IF THE MOISTURE INCREASE TRENDS A FEW HOURS
FASTER...THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE HIGHER FOR POCAHONTAS.
CURRENTLY...ONLY HAVE A HOUR OR SO OF MENTIONING THAT POSSIBILITY.

500 MB TROF REMAINING OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...THEN ONLY SHIFTING EAST AND WEAKENING ON THANKSGIVING EVE.
FROM THE WV DEER PERSPECTIVE...UNFORTUNATELY A MILDER THAN NORMAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE HUNTERS ON MONDAY. EVEN LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
DAWN MONDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

ONLY A GRADUAL COOLING DOWN IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.  COLD ENOUGH BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR A CHANCE OF
SOME SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED...AND EXPECT VFR INTO THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS PASSES TONIGHT WITH FLOW BECOMING NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
INDUCE SOME UPSLOPE TYPE SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. VERY LIMITED MOISTURE
WITH THIS...SO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON DROPS IN CIG/VIS...BUT HAVE
MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT...WITH MVFR VIS IN SNOW SHOWERS
AT EKN. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS MOVING IN FRIDAY...WITH SKIES
BECOMING CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY W/NW WINDS TODAY WILL
DECREASE ACROSS THE WEST TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW
TOMORROW ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. NW WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CATEGORY RESTRICTIONS MAY VARY
OVERNIGHT. MAY EVEN HAVE BRIEF DROPS INTO IFR VISIBILITY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RAIN AND CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/30
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...MZ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 201744
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1244 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE STARVED NORTHWEST UPSLOPE INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BRINGS PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND. DEEPER
MOISTURE QUICKLY THROUGH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS SCATTERED OUT FASTER THAN EXPECTED TODAY...AND HAVE RAISED
HIGHS JUST A TOUCH IN AREAS WHERE WE ARE ALREADY AT/NEAR PREVIOUS
HIGH FORECAST FOR TODAY. FLOW BEGINS TRANSITIONING TO NW AS UPPER
TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE...AS IT MAINLY REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH. 850MB TEMPS
ARE DROPPING DURING THIS TIME...BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 12Z FRIDAY
MORNING. RULE OF THUMB IS TO LINGER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
UNTIL THE 850MB TEMP TROUGH PASSES. SO HAVE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN QUICKLY COMING TO AN
END AS THE SUN RISES. IN ALL...HAVE GENERALLY UP TO AN INCH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WITH NW FLOW...WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDS A BIT
LONGER.

STAYED GENERALLY BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET FOR LOWS TONIGHT...ENDING
UP A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ACROSS THE COAL FIELDS. MADE ONLY
MINIMAL CHANGES TO HIGHS FOR FRIDAY BY BLENDING IN BIAS-CORRECTED
CONSENSUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE E AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
TRANSITION TO MORE OF A ZONAL REGIME FRIDAY. STILL...WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES ON THE LOW SIDE...EXPECT TEMPS SIMILAR TO THURSDAY
DESPITE SUNSHINE. THERE PROBABLY WILL BE QUITE THE TEMP GRADIENT
FROM SW TO NE GIVEN THE TIGHT LOW LEVEL THERMAL PACKING DEVELOPING.

SURFACE HIGH LINGERS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME CIRRUS PASSING BY. A
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE S LATE WITH LOWER
CLOUDS ACROSS NE KY/SE OH. EXPECT ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...PARTICULARLY
IN THE TYPICAL COLD VALLEYS. WAA ALOFT WILL ALLOW HIGHEST PEAKS IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT...CREATING FOR QUITE
THE RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT BY MORNING.

SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH SOME SUN...EXCEPT SMALL CHANCE FOR
A SHRA OVER SE OH DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. EXPECT QUITE THE
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES PER WAA AND DEVELOPING DOWNSLOPING SE
FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE TEMPS SPIKING INTO THE MID 50S ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS SURGE SATURDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM
TROF AMPLIFICATION. WITH THE FLOW INCREASING...KEPT LOWS UP EXCEPT
ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. AGAIN...ANOTHER IMPRESSIVE RIDGE/VALLEY
SPLIT SHAPING UP FOR THE N MOUNTAINS. SUNDAY WILL MARK THE ARRIVAL
OF S STREAM SYSTEM AS IT TRIES TO PHASE WITH N BRANCH OVER THE UPPER
MS VALLEY. EXPECT A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW TO TRACK WELL W OF THE
AREA ON SUNDAY WITH THE TROF GOING NEGATIVE TILT. IMPRESSIVE
DYNAMICS AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR
STRONG WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL BAND AS IT RACES NE THRU THE AREA THE
FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. BROUGHT POPS DOWN QUICKLY WITH ARRIVAL OF DRY
SLOT IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS LOOKS TO CROSS 60F WITH WINDS STAYING
UP IN THE POST FRONTAL DRY SLOT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NOT A BAD WX TREND LEADING UP TOWARD THANKSGIVING WITH NO MAJOR
STORMS.

BOARD RIDGE SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE SOUTHEAST...WITH DISTURBANCES
RIDING NE THROUGH THE UPPER OH VALLEY WHILE 500 MB HEIGHTS STILL
RISE SLIGHTLY OVER CWA. KEEPING MOST OF CWA DRY SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT
HAVE SOME 20 AND 30 POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
OHIO.

HAVE DEEPER MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED HIGHER POPS ARRIVING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST 12Z TO 15Z SUNDAY...BUT QUICKLY MOVING
THROUGH ON SUNDAY...WITH LOWERING POPS SW TO NE BY LATE IN THE DAY.
WILL GO WITH A NONDIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRACE SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
RISING TEMPERATURES DURING THE PREDAWN FOR MOST COUNTIES...AS
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE.  WILL HOLD POCAHONTAS COUNTY
COLDER.

AT THIS POINT...NO NEED FOR ANY ADDITIONS TO OUR EMPTY HAZARDOUS
WEATHER POTENTIAL. IF THE MOISTURE INCREASE TRENDS A FEW HOURS
FASTER...THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE HIGHER FOR POCAHONTAS.
CURRENTLY...ONLY HAVE A HOUR OR SO OF MENTIONING THAT POSSIBILITY.

500 MB TROF REMAINING OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...THEN ONLY SHIFTING EAST AND WEAKENING ON THANKSGIVING EVE.
FROM THE WV DEER PERSPECTIVE...UNFORTUNATELY A MILDER THAN NORMAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE HUNTERS ON MONDAY. EVEN LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
DAWN MONDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

ONLY A GRADUAL COOLING DOWN IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.  COLD ENOUGH BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR A CHANCE OF
SOME SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED...AND EXPECT VFR INTO THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS PASSES TONIGHT WITH FLOW BECOMING NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
INDUCE SOME UPSLOPE TYPE SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. VERY LIMITED MOISTURE
WITH THIS...SO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON DROPS IN CIG/VIS...BUT HAVE
MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT...WITH MVFR VIS IN SNOW SHOWERS
AT EKN. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS MOVING IN FRIDAY...WITH SKIES
BECOMING CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY W/NW WINDS TODAY WILL
DECREASE ACROSS THE WEST TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW
TOMORROW ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. NW WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CATEGORY RESTRICTIONS MAY VARY
OVERNIGHT. MAY EVEN HAVE BRIEF DROPS INTO IFR VISIBILITY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RAIN AND CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/30
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...MZ








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