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000
FXUS61 KRLX 021034
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
617 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FRONTAL SYSTEM TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS...SOME STRONG. VERY
WARM AND HUMID THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6 AM UPDATE. TWEAKED POPS INTO LIKELY FOR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES THIS
MORNING...ALSO EXPANDED LOW POPS EARLY THIS MORNING INTO NORTH
CENTRAL WV...ALL PER RADAR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EVEN THOUGH WE ARE TRANSITIONING INTO THE COOL SEASON...THE PATTERN
STILL SHOWS SIGNS OF SUMMER AS STRONG UPPER RIDGING HOLDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE NATION. THIS KEEPS OUR AREA IN THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES WHICH HAS IMPLICATIONS ON ANY FRONT AFFECTING
US.

MODELS AGREE ON A STOUT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND ON
INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...WITH A VORT LOBE TRAILING SOUTH ACROSS
OUR AREA. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT IS WEAK AND WILL LOSE
DEFINITION AS IT TRIES TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT APPEARS THE FRONT ITSELF WILL HAVE LESSER
IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. THE GREATEST IMPACT WILL COME FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH DYNAMICS IN THE FORM OF A WELL DEFINED RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE UPPER JET AND THE TRAILING VORT LOBE. WITH PW`S AROUND 2
INCHES AND A MODEST 850 MB SOUTHWESTERLY JET COINCIDING WITH THE
UPPER DYNAMICS...WE EXPECT A BAND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE
ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC DOES HAVE THE NORTHWEST HALF
OF OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...SO WILL ADD
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL FOR NOW TO THE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.
TIMING OF THE STORMS IS BASED ON GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT...REACHING THE
OHIO RIVER AROUND 18Z AND PROGRESSING TO THE MOUNTAINS BY 22Z.
THINGS QUICKLY WIND DOWN THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY
AND LOSS OF HEATING...LEAVING ONLY THE FAR SOUTHEAST WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BY MIDNIGHT. LEANING ON LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
FOR MAX TEMPS NORTHWEST AND HIGHER SIDE SOUTHEAST DUE TO CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION.

FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE FRONT BY THIS TIME IS ILL DEFINED AT BEST AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER. LOOKS LIKE ANY DRIER AIR THAT MAKES
IT INTO THE NORTH AND WEST WILL NOT GET ANY FARTHER. SO WITH LOSS OF
WIND FLOW AND DECREASING CLOUDS...EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF RIVER AND
VALLEY FOG TONIGHT...EVEN UP NORTH AND WEST AS BETTER RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL COMPENSATE FOR ANY LOSS OF MOISTURE. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL
BE A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH PROVES TO BE PERSISTENT
AND STILL WILL NOT BE ABLE TO SHAKE THE 590DKM LINE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. DESPITE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
WEDNESDAY...THINK WE WILL HAVE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO POP
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HEATING HOURS. STRETCHED
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA BASED ON THIS
REASONING.

LEFT THURSDAY LARGELY DRY AS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH THE
MOUNTAINS AND TUG VALLEY IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE AREA AS BEFORE. NAM
BRINGS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS ALOFT OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES IN
SOUTHEAST OHIO...BUT COLUMN WILL LIKELY BE TOO DRY AT THIS POINT FOR
ANYTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE TO DEVELOP.

BRING THE POPS BACK IN AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES...AND FIGURE TO
GET SOME BETTER DESTABILIZATION DURING THE DAY WITH PRESSURE FALLS.

KEEP THE HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER THE 90 DEGREE
MARK GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND MOIST GROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HEATING BACK UP...AS THE SOUTHERN 500 MB RIDGE BUILDS BACK NORTH FOR
FRIDAY.  SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION COULD OCCUR FRIDAY...BUT POPS
MOSTLY 20 AND 30 PERCENT.

PER WPC MEDIUM COORDINATION...CONTINUE TO TREND SLOWER THAN THE GFS
ON THE NEXT FRONT. 12Z GFS QUICKLY DRIES OUT OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY.  PREFER THE SLOWER ECWMF SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME...INCREASED POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING. HOLDING SOME CHANCE POPS EVEN INTO SUNDAY MORNING
FOR NORTHERN COUNTIES...AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES.  DRY MONDAY...EXCEPT AGAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG
THE EASTERN SLOPES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z TUESDAY THRU 12Z WEDNESDAY...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
LOSE DEFINITION AS IT TRIES TO CROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...VFR WILL PREVAIL TODAY. ALSO...SOUTHWEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME MODERATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS TO NEAR 20 MPH IN SOME LOCATIONS.

AFTER 00Z...FRONT CONTINUES TO LOSE DEFINITION AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. WITH CLOUDS AND WINDS
DECREASING...EXPECTING LIFR RIVER AND VALLEY FOG TO FORM BY
06Z...AFFECTING MOST OF THE MAJOR TERMINALS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD VARY
BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. ONSET OF FOG TONIGHT MAY BE DELAYED IF CLOUDS
HANG ON LONGER.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR IN RIVER AND VALLEY FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...JMV











000
FXUS61 KRLX 021034
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
617 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FRONTAL SYSTEM TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS...SOME STRONG. VERY
WARM AND HUMID THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6 AM UPDATE. TWEAKED POPS INTO LIKELY FOR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES THIS
MORNING...ALSO EXPANDED LOW POPS EARLY THIS MORNING INTO NORTH
CENTRAL WV...ALL PER RADAR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EVEN THOUGH WE ARE TRANSITIONING INTO THE COOL SEASON...THE PATTERN
STILL SHOWS SIGNS OF SUMMER AS STRONG UPPER RIDGING HOLDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE NATION. THIS KEEPS OUR AREA IN THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES WHICH HAS IMPLICATIONS ON ANY FRONT AFFECTING
US.

MODELS AGREE ON A STOUT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND ON
INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...WITH A VORT LOBE TRAILING SOUTH ACROSS
OUR AREA. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT IS WEAK AND WILL LOSE
DEFINITION AS IT TRIES TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT APPEARS THE FRONT ITSELF WILL HAVE LESSER
IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. THE GREATEST IMPACT WILL COME FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH DYNAMICS IN THE FORM OF A WELL DEFINED RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE UPPER JET AND THE TRAILING VORT LOBE. WITH PW`S AROUND 2
INCHES AND A MODEST 850 MB SOUTHWESTERLY JET COINCIDING WITH THE
UPPER DYNAMICS...WE EXPECT A BAND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE
ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC DOES HAVE THE NORTHWEST HALF
OF OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...SO WILL ADD
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL FOR NOW TO THE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.
TIMING OF THE STORMS IS BASED ON GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT...REACHING THE
OHIO RIVER AROUND 18Z AND PROGRESSING TO THE MOUNTAINS BY 22Z.
THINGS QUICKLY WIND DOWN THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY
AND LOSS OF HEATING...LEAVING ONLY THE FAR SOUTHEAST WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BY MIDNIGHT. LEANING ON LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
FOR MAX TEMPS NORTHWEST AND HIGHER SIDE SOUTHEAST DUE TO CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION.

FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE FRONT BY THIS TIME IS ILL DEFINED AT BEST AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER. LOOKS LIKE ANY DRIER AIR THAT MAKES
IT INTO THE NORTH AND WEST WILL NOT GET ANY FARTHER. SO WITH LOSS OF
WIND FLOW AND DECREASING CLOUDS...EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF RIVER AND
VALLEY FOG TONIGHT...EVEN UP NORTH AND WEST AS BETTER RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL COMPENSATE FOR ANY LOSS OF MOISTURE. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL
BE A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH PROVES TO BE PERSISTENT
AND STILL WILL NOT BE ABLE TO SHAKE THE 590DKM LINE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. DESPITE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
WEDNESDAY...THINK WE WILL HAVE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO POP
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HEATING HOURS. STRETCHED
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA BASED ON THIS
REASONING.

LEFT THURSDAY LARGELY DRY AS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH THE
MOUNTAINS AND TUG VALLEY IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE AREA AS BEFORE. NAM
BRINGS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS ALOFT OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES IN
SOUTHEAST OHIO...BUT COLUMN WILL LIKELY BE TOO DRY AT THIS POINT FOR
ANYTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE TO DEVELOP.

BRING THE POPS BACK IN AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES...AND FIGURE TO
GET SOME BETTER DESTABILIZATION DURING THE DAY WITH PRESSURE FALLS.

KEEP THE HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER THE 90 DEGREE
MARK GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND MOIST GROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HEATING BACK UP...AS THE SOUTHERN 500 MB RIDGE BUILDS BACK NORTH FOR
FRIDAY.  SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION COULD OCCUR FRIDAY...BUT POPS
MOSTLY 20 AND 30 PERCENT.

PER WPC MEDIUM COORDINATION...CONTINUE TO TREND SLOWER THAN THE GFS
ON THE NEXT FRONT. 12Z GFS QUICKLY DRIES OUT OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY.  PREFER THE SLOWER ECWMF SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME...INCREASED POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING. HOLDING SOME CHANCE POPS EVEN INTO SUNDAY MORNING
FOR NORTHERN COUNTIES...AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES.  DRY MONDAY...EXCEPT AGAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG
THE EASTERN SLOPES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z TUESDAY THRU 12Z WEDNESDAY...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
LOSE DEFINITION AS IT TRIES TO CROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...VFR WILL PREVAIL TODAY. ALSO...SOUTHWEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME MODERATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS TO NEAR 20 MPH IN SOME LOCATIONS.

AFTER 00Z...FRONT CONTINUES TO LOSE DEFINITION AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. WITH CLOUDS AND WINDS
DECREASING...EXPECTING LIFR RIVER AND VALLEY FOG TO FORM BY
06Z...AFFECTING MOST OF THE MAJOR TERMINALS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD VARY
BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. ONSET OF FOG TONIGHT MAY BE DELAYED IF CLOUDS
HANG ON LONGER.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR IN RIVER AND VALLEY FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...JMV











000
FXUS61 KRLX 021034
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
617 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FRONTAL SYSTEM TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS...SOME STRONG. VERY
WARM AND HUMID THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6 AM UPDATE. TWEAKED POPS INTO LIKELY FOR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES THIS
MORNING...ALSO EXPANDED LOW POPS EARLY THIS MORNING INTO NORTH
CENTRAL WV...ALL PER RADAR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EVEN THOUGH WE ARE TRANSITIONING INTO THE COOL SEASON...THE PATTERN
STILL SHOWS SIGNS OF SUMMER AS STRONG UPPER RIDGING HOLDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE NATION. THIS KEEPS OUR AREA IN THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES WHICH HAS IMPLICATIONS ON ANY FRONT AFFECTING
US.

MODELS AGREE ON A STOUT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND ON
INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...WITH A VORT LOBE TRAILING SOUTH ACROSS
OUR AREA. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT IS WEAK AND WILL LOSE
DEFINITION AS IT TRIES TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT APPEARS THE FRONT ITSELF WILL HAVE LESSER
IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. THE GREATEST IMPACT WILL COME FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH DYNAMICS IN THE FORM OF A WELL DEFINED RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE UPPER JET AND THE TRAILING VORT LOBE. WITH PW`S AROUND 2
INCHES AND A MODEST 850 MB SOUTHWESTERLY JET COINCIDING WITH THE
UPPER DYNAMICS...WE EXPECT A BAND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE
ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC DOES HAVE THE NORTHWEST HALF
OF OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...SO WILL ADD
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL FOR NOW TO THE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.
TIMING OF THE STORMS IS BASED ON GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT...REACHING THE
OHIO RIVER AROUND 18Z AND PROGRESSING TO THE MOUNTAINS BY 22Z.
THINGS QUICKLY WIND DOWN THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY
AND LOSS OF HEATING...LEAVING ONLY THE FAR SOUTHEAST WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BY MIDNIGHT. LEANING ON LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
FOR MAX TEMPS NORTHWEST AND HIGHER SIDE SOUTHEAST DUE TO CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION.

FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE FRONT BY THIS TIME IS ILL DEFINED AT BEST AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER. LOOKS LIKE ANY DRIER AIR THAT MAKES
IT INTO THE NORTH AND WEST WILL NOT GET ANY FARTHER. SO WITH LOSS OF
WIND FLOW AND DECREASING CLOUDS...EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF RIVER AND
VALLEY FOG TONIGHT...EVEN UP NORTH AND WEST AS BETTER RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL COMPENSATE FOR ANY LOSS OF MOISTURE. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL
BE A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH PROVES TO BE PERSISTENT
AND STILL WILL NOT BE ABLE TO SHAKE THE 590DKM LINE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. DESPITE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
WEDNESDAY...THINK WE WILL HAVE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO POP
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HEATING HOURS. STRETCHED
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA BASED ON THIS
REASONING.

LEFT THURSDAY LARGELY DRY AS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH THE
MOUNTAINS AND TUG VALLEY IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE AREA AS BEFORE. NAM
BRINGS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS ALOFT OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES IN
SOUTHEAST OHIO...BUT COLUMN WILL LIKELY BE TOO DRY AT THIS POINT FOR
ANYTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE TO DEVELOP.

BRING THE POPS BACK IN AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES...AND FIGURE TO
GET SOME BETTER DESTABILIZATION DURING THE DAY WITH PRESSURE FALLS.

KEEP THE HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER THE 90 DEGREE
MARK GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND MOIST GROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HEATING BACK UP...AS THE SOUTHERN 500 MB RIDGE BUILDS BACK NORTH FOR
FRIDAY.  SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION COULD OCCUR FRIDAY...BUT POPS
MOSTLY 20 AND 30 PERCENT.

PER WPC MEDIUM COORDINATION...CONTINUE TO TREND SLOWER THAN THE GFS
ON THE NEXT FRONT. 12Z GFS QUICKLY DRIES OUT OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY.  PREFER THE SLOWER ECWMF SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME...INCREASED POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING. HOLDING SOME CHANCE POPS EVEN INTO SUNDAY MORNING
FOR NORTHERN COUNTIES...AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES.  DRY MONDAY...EXCEPT AGAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG
THE EASTERN SLOPES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z TUESDAY THRU 12Z WEDNESDAY...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
LOSE DEFINITION AS IT TRIES TO CROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...VFR WILL PREVAIL TODAY. ALSO...SOUTHWEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME MODERATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS TO NEAR 20 MPH IN SOME LOCATIONS.

AFTER 00Z...FRONT CONTINUES TO LOSE DEFINITION AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. WITH CLOUDS AND WINDS
DECREASING...EXPECTING LIFR RIVER AND VALLEY FOG TO FORM BY
06Z...AFFECTING MOST OF THE MAJOR TERMINALS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD VARY
BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. ONSET OF FOG TONIGHT MAY BE DELAYED IF CLOUDS
HANG ON LONGER.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR IN RIVER AND VALLEY FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...JMV











000
FXUS61 KRLX 021034
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
617 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FRONTAL SYSTEM TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS...SOME STRONG. VERY
WARM AND HUMID THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6 AM UPDATE. TWEAKED POPS INTO LIKELY FOR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES THIS
MORNING...ALSO EXPANDED LOW POPS EARLY THIS MORNING INTO NORTH
CENTRAL WV...ALL PER RADAR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EVEN THOUGH WE ARE TRANSITIONING INTO THE COOL SEASON...THE PATTERN
STILL SHOWS SIGNS OF SUMMER AS STRONG UPPER RIDGING HOLDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE NATION. THIS KEEPS OUR AREA IN THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES WHICH HAS IMPLICATIONS ON ANY FRONT AFFECTING
US.

MODELS AGREE ON A STOUT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND ON
INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...WITH A VORT LOBE TRAILING SOUTH ACROSS
OUR AREA. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT IS WEAK AND WILL LOSE
DEFINITION AS IT TRIES TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT APPEARS THE FRONT ITSELF WILL HAVE LESSER
IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. THE GREATEST IMPACT WILL COME FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH DYNAMICS IN THE FORM OF A WELL DEFINED RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE UPPER JET AND THE TRAILING VORT LOBE. WITH PW`S AROUND 2
INCHES AND A MODEST 850 MB SOUTHWESTERLY JET COINCIDING WITH THE
UPPER DYNAMICS...WE EXPECT A BAND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE
ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC DOES HAVE THE NORTHWEST HALF
OF OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...SO WILL ADD
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL FOR NOW TO THE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.
TIMING OF THE STORMS IS BASED ON GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT...REACHING THE
OHIO RIVER AROUND 18Z AND PROGRESSING TO THE MOUNTAINS BY 22Z.
THINGS QUICKLY WIND DOWN THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY
AND LOSS OF HEATING...LEAVING ONLY THE FAR SOUTHEAST WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BY MIDNIGHT. LEANING ON LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
FOR MAX TEMPS NORTHWEST AND HIGHER SIDE SOUTHEAST DUE TO CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION.

FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE FRONT BY THIS TIME IS ILL DEFINED AT BEST AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER. LOOKS LIKE ANY DRIER AIR THAT MAKES
IT INTO THE NORTH AND WEST WILL NOT GET ANY FARTHER. SO WITH LOSS OF
WIND FLOW AND DECREASING CLOUDS...EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF RIVER AND
VALLEY FOG TONIGHT...EVEN UP NORTH AND WEST AS BETTER RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL COMPENSATE FOR ANY LOSS OF MOISTURE. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL
BE A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH PROVES TO BE PERSISTENT
AND STILL WILL NOT BE ABLE TO SHAKE THE 590DKM LINE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. DESPITE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
WEDNESDAY...THINK WE WILL HAVE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO POP
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HEATING HOURS. STRETCHED
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA BASED ON THIS
REASONING.

LEFT THURSDAY LARGELY DRY AS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH THE
MOUNTAINS AND TUG VALLEY IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE AREA AS BEFORE. NAM
BRINGS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS ALOFT OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES IN
SOUTHEAST OHIO...BUT COLUMN WILL LIKELY BE TOO DRY AT THIS POINT FOR
ANYTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE TO DEVELOP.

BRING THE POPS BACK IN AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES...AND FIGURE TO
GET SOME BETTER DESTABILIZATION DURING THE DAY WITH PRESSURE FALLS.

KEEP THE HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER THE 90 DEGREE
MARK GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND MOIST GROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HEATING BACK UP...AS THE SOUTHERN 500 MB RIDGE BUILDS BACK NORTH FOR
FRIDAY.  SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION COULD OCCUR FRIDAY...BUT POPS
MOSTLY 20 AND 30 PERCENT.

PER WPC MEDIUM COORDINATION...CONTINUE TO TREND SLOWER THAN THE GFS
ON THE NEXT FRONT. 12Z GFS QUICKLY DRIES OUT OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY.  PREFER THE SLOWER ECWMF SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME...INCREASED POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING. HOLDING SOME CHANCE POPS EVEN INTO SUNDAY MORNING
FOR NORTHERN COUNTIES...AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES.  DRY MONDAY...EXCEPT AGAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG
THE EASTERN SLOPES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z TUESDAY THRU 12Z WEDNESDAY...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
LOSE DEFINITION AS IT TRIES TO CROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...VFR WILL PREVAIL TODAY. ALSO...SOUTHWEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME MODERATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS TO NEAR 20 MPH IN SOME LOCATIONS.

AFTER 00Z...FRONT CONTINUES TO LOSE DEFINITION AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. WITH CLOUDS AND WINDS
DECREASING...EXPECTING LIFR RIVER AND VALLEY FOG TO FORM BY
06Z...AFFECTING MOST OF THE MAJOR TERMINALS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD VARY
BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. ONSET OF FOG TONIGHT MAY BE DELAYED IF CLOUDS
HANG ON LONGER.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR IN RIVER AND VALLEY FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...JMV











000
FXUS61 KRLX 020822
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
422 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS. VERY WARM AND
HUMID THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EVEN THOUGH WE ARE TRANSITIONING INTO THE COOL SEASON...THE PATTERN
STILL SHOWS SIGNS OF SUMMER AS STRONG UPPER RIDGING HOLDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE NATION. THIS KEEPS OUR AREA IN THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES WHICH HAS IMPLICATIONS ON ANY FRONT AFFECTING
US.

MODELS AGREE ON A STOUT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND ON
INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...WITH A VORT LOBE TRAILING SOUTH ACROSS
OUR AREA. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT IS WEAK AND WILL LOSE
DEFINITION AS IT TRIES TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT APPEARS THE FRONT ITSELF WILL HAVE LESSER
IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. THE GREATEST IMPACT WILL COME FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH DYNAMICS IN THE FORM OF A WELL DEFINED RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE UPPER JET AND THE TRAILING VORT LOBE. WITH PW`S AROUND 2
INCHES AND A MODEST 850 MB SOUTHWESTERLY JET COINCIDING WITH THE
UPPER DYNAMICS...WE EXPECT A BAND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE
ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC DOES HAVE THE NORTHWEST HALF
OF OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...SO WILL ADD
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL FOR NOW TO THE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.
TIMING OF THE STORMS IS BASED ON GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT...REACHING THE
OHIO RIVER AROUND 18Z AND PROGRESSING TO THE MOUNTAINS BY 22Z.
THINGS QUICKLY WIND DOWN THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY
AND LOSS OF HEATING...LEAVING ONLY THE FAR SOUTHEAST WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BY MIDNIGHT. LEANING ON LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
FOR MAX TEMPS NORTHWEST AND HIGHER SIDE SOUTHEAST DUE TO CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION.

FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE FRONT BY THIS TIME IS ILL DEFINED AT BEST AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER. LOOKS LIKE ANY DRIER AIR THAT MAKES
IT INTO THE NORTH AND WEST WILL NOT GET ANY FARTHER. SO WITH LOSS OF
WIND FLOW AND DECREASING CLOUDS...EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF RIVER AND
VALLEY FOG TONIGHT...EVEN UP NORTH AND WEST AS BETTER RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL COMPENSATE FOR ANY LOSS OF MOISTURE. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL
BE A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH PROVES TO BE PERSISTENT
AND STILL WILL NOT BE ABLE TO SHAKE THE 590DKM LINE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. DESPITE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
WEDNESDAY...THINK WE WILL HAVE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO POP
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HEATING HOURS. STRETCHED
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA BASED ON THIS
REASONING.

LEFT THURSDAY LARGELY DRY AS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH THE
MOUNTAINS AND TUG VALLEY IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE AREA AS BEFORE. NAM
BRINGS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS ALOFT OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES IN
SOUTHEAST OHIO...BUT COLUMN WILL LIKELY BE TOO DRY AT THIS POINT FOR
ANYTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE TO DEVELOP.

BRING THE POPS BACK IN AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES...AND FIGURE TO
GET SOME BETTER DESTABILIZATION DURING THE DAY WITH PRESSURE FALLS.

KEEP THE HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER THE 90 DEGREE
MARK GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND MOIST GROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HEATING BACK UP...AS THE SOUTHERN 500 MB RIDGE BUILDS BACK NORTH FOR
FRIDAY.  SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION COULD OCCUR FRIDAY...BUT POPS
MOSTLY 20 AND 30 PERCENT.

PER WPC MEDIUM COORDINATION...CONTINUE TO TREND SLOWER THAN THE GFS
ON THE NEXT FRONT. 12Z GFS QUICKLY DRIES OUT OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY.  PREFER THE SLOWER ECWMF SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME...INCREASED POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING. HOLDING SOME CHANCE POPS EVEN INTO SUNDAY MORNING
FOR NORTHERN COUNTIES...AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES.  DRY MONDAY...EXCEPT AGAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG
THE EASTERN SLOPES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
06Z TUESDAY THRU 06Z WEDNESDAY...
WEAK UPPER TROUGH WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTHEAST WV WILL END BY
10Z...OTHERWISE VFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
WIND TO KEEP SIGNIFICANT FOG OUT OF THE PICTURE EARLY THIS MORNING.

AFTER 12Z...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND LOSE DEFINITION AS IT TRIES TO CROSS THE AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS WITH THE FRONT...MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...VFR WILL PREVAIL
TODAY. ALSO...SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME
MODERATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 MPH IN SOME LOCATIONS.

AFTER 00Z...FRONT LOSES DEFINITION AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE AREA. WITH CLOUDS AND WINDS DECREASING...EXPECTING MVFR TO
IFR RIVER AND VALLEY FOG TO FORM BY 06Z...AFFECTING MOST OF THE
MAJOR TERMINALS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD VARY
BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. ONSET OF FOG TONIGHT MAY BE DELAYED IF CLOUDS
HANG ON LONGER.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    TUE 09/02/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR IN RIVER AND VALLEY FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...JMV









000
FXUS61 KRLX 020822
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
422 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS. VERY WARM AND
HUMID THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EVEN THOUGH WE ARE TRANSITIONING INTO THE COOL SEASON...THE PATTERN
STILL SHOWS SIGNS OF SUMMER AS STRONG UPPER RIDGING HOLDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE NATION. THIS KEEPS OUR AREA IN THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES WHICH HAS IMPLICATIONS ON ANY FRONT AFFECTING
US.

MODELS AGREE ON A STOUT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND ON
INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...WITH A VORT LOBE TRAILING SOUTH ACROSS
OUR AREA. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT IS WEAK AND WILL LOSE
DEFINITION AS IT TRIES TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT APPEARS THE FRONT ITSELF WILL HAVE LESSER
IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. THE GREATEST IMPACT WILL COME FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH DYNAMICS IN THE FORM OF A WELL DEFINED RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE UPPER JET AND THE TRAILING VORT LOBE. WITH PW`S AROUND 2
INCHES AND A MODEST 850 MB SOUTHWESTERLY JET COINCIDING WITH THE
UPPER DYNAMICS...WE EXPECT A BAND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE
ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC DOES HAVE THE NORTHWEST HALF
OF OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...SO WILL ADD
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL FOR NOW TO THE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.
TIMING OF THE STORMS IS BASED ON GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT...REACHING THE
OHIO RIVER AROUND 18Z AND PROGRESSING TO THE MOUNTAINS BY 22Z.
THINGS QUICKLY WIND DOWN THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY
AND LOSS OF HEATING...LEAVING ONLY THE FAR SOUTHEAST WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BY MIDNIGHT. LEANING ON LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
FOR MAX TEMPS NORTHWEST AND HIGHER SIDE SOUTHEAST DUE TO CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION.

FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE FRONT BY THIS TIME IS ILL DEFINED AT BEST AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER. LOOKS LIKE ANY DRIER AIR THAT MAKES
IT INTO THE NORTH AND WEST WILL NOT GET ANY FARTHER. SO WITH LOSS OF
WIND FLOW AND DECREASING CLOUDS...EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF RIVER AND
VALLEY FOG TONIGHT...EVEN UP NORTH AND WEST AS BETTER RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL COMPENSATE FOR ANY LOSS OF MOISTURE. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL
BE A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH PROVES TO BE PERSISTENT
AND STILL WILL NOT BE ABLE TO SHAKE THE 590DKM LINE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. DESPITE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
WEDNESDAY...THINK WE WILL HAVE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO POP
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HEATING HOURS. STRETCHED
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA BASED ON THIS
REASONING.

LEFT THURSDAY LARGELY DRY AS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH THE
MOUNTAINS AND TUG VALLEY IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE AREA AS BEFORE. NAM
BRINGS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS ALOFT OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES IN
SOUTHEAST OHIO...BUT COLUMN WILL LIKELY BE TOO DRY AT THIS POINT FOR
ANYTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE TO DEVELOP.

BRING THE POPS BACK IN AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES...AND FIGURE TO
GET SOME BETTER DESTABILIZATION DURING THE DAY WITH PRESSURE FALLS.

KEEP THE HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER THE 90 DEGREE
MARK GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND MOIST GROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HEATING BACK UP...AS THE SOUTHERN 500 MB RIDGE BUILDS BACK NORTH FOR
FRIDAY.  SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION COULD OCCUR FRIDAY...BUT POPS
MOSTLY 20 AND 30 PERCENT.

PER WPC MEDIUM COORDINATION...CONTINUE TO TREND SLOWER THAN THE GFS
ON THE NEXT FRONT. 12Z GFS QUICKLY DRIES OUT OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY.  PREFER THE SLOWER ECWMF SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME...INCREASED POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING. HOLDING SOME CHANCE POPS EVEN INTO SUNDAY MORNING
FOR NORTHERN COUNTIES...AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES.  DRY MONDAY...EXCEPT AGAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG
THE EASTERN SLOPES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
06Z TUESDAY THRU 06Z WEDNESDAY...
WEAK UPPER TROUGH WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTHEAST WV WILL END BY
10Z...OTHERWISE VFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
WIND TO KEEP SIGNIFICANT FOG OUT OF THE PICTURE EARLY THIS MORNING.

AFTER 12Z...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND LOSE DEFINITION AS IT TRIES TO CROSS THE AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS WITH THE FRONT...MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...VFR WILL PREVAIL
TODAY. ALSO...SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME
MODERATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 MPH IN SOME LOCATIONS.

AFTER 00Z...FRONT LOSES DEFINITION AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE AREA. WITH CLOUDS AND WINDS DECREASING...EXPECTING MVFR TO
IFR RIVER AND VALLEY FOG TO FORM BY 06Z...AFFECTING MOST OF THE
MAJOR TERMINALS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD VARY
BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. ONSET OF FOG TONIGHT MAY BE DELAYED IF CLOUDS
HANG ON LONGER.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    TUE 09/02/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR IN RIVER AND VALLEY FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...JMV









000
FXUS61 KRLX 020822
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
422 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS. VERY WARM AND
HUMID THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EVEN THOUGH WE ARE TRANSITIONING INTO THE COOL SEASON...THE PATTERN
STILL SHOWS SIGNS OF SUMMER AS STRONG UPPER RIDGING HOLDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE NATION. THIS KEEPS OUR AREA IN THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES WHICH HAS IMPLICATIONS ON ANY FRONT AFFECTING
US.

MODELS AGREE ON A STOUT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND ON
INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...WITH A VORT LOBE TRAILING SOUTH ACROSS
OUR AREA. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT IS WEAK AND WILL LOSE
DEFINITION AS IT TRIES TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT APPEARS THE FRONT ITSELF WILL HAVE LESSER
IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. THE GREATEST IMPACT WILL COME FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH DYNAMICS IN THE FORM OF A WELL DEFINED RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE UPPER JET AND THE TRAILING VORT LOBE. WITH PW`S AROUND 2
INCHES AND A MODEST 850 MB SOUTHWESTERLY JET COINCIDING WITH THE
UPPER DYNAMICS...WE EXPECT A BAND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE
ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC DOES HAVE THE NORTHWEST HALF
OF OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...SO WILL ADD
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL FOR NOW TO THE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.
TIMING OF THE STORMS IS BASED ON GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT...REACHING THE
OHIO RIVER AROUND 18Z AND PROGRESSING TO THE MOUNTAINS BY 22Z.
THINGS QUICKLY WIND DOWN THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY
AND LOSS OF HEATING...LEAVING ONLY THE FAR SOUTHEAST WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BY MIDNIGHT. LEANING ON LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
FOR MAX TEMPS NORTHWEST AND HIGHER SIDE SOUTHEAST DUE TO CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION.

FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE FRONT BY THIS TIME IS ILL DEFINED AT BEST AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER. LOOKS LIKE ANY DRIER AIR THAT MAKES
IT INTO THE NORTH AND WEST WILL NOT GET ANY FARTHER. SO WITH LOSS OF
WIND FLOW AND DECREASING CLOUDS...EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF RIVER AND
VALLEY FOG TONIGHT...EVEN UP NORTH AND WEST AS BETTER RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL COMPENSATE FOR ANY LOSS OF MOISTURE. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL
BE A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH PROVES TO BE PERSISTENT
AND STILL WILL NOT BE ABLE TO SHAKE THE 590DKM LINE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. DESPITE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
WEDNESDAY...THINK WE WILL HAVE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO POP
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HEATING HOURS. STRETCHED
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA BASED ON THIS
REASONING.

LEFT THURSDAY LARGELY DRY AS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH THE
MOUNTAINS AND TUG VALLEY IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE AREA AS BEFORE. NAM
BRINGS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS ALOFT OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES IN
SOUTHEAST OHIO...BUT COLUMN WILL LIKELY BE TOO DRY AT THIS POINT FOR
ANYTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE TO DEVELOP.

BRING THE POPS BACK IN AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES...AND FIGURE TO
GET SOME BETTER DESTABILIZATION DURING THE DAY WITH PRESSURE FALLS.

KEEP THE HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER THE 90 DEGREE
MARK GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND MOIST GROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HEATING BACK UP...AS THE SOUTHERN 500 MB RIDGE BUILDS BACK NORTH FOR
FRIDAY.  SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION COULD OCCUR FRIDAY...BUT POPS
MOSTLY 20 AND 30 PERCENT.

PER WPC MEDIUM COORDINATION...CONTINUE TO TREND SLOWER THAN THE GFS
ON THE NEXT FRONT. 12Z GFS QUICKLY DRIES OUT OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY.  PREFER THE SLOWER ECWMF SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME...INCREASED POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING. HOLDING SOME CHANCE POPS EVEN INTO SUNDAY MORNING
FOR NORTHERN COUNTIES...AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES.  DRY MONDAY...EXCEPT AGAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG
THE EASTERN SLOPES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
06Z TUESDAY THRU 06Z WEDNESDAY...
WEAK UPPER TROUGH WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTHEAST WV WILL END BY
10Z...OTHERWISE VFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
WIND TO KEEP SIGNIFICANT FOG OUT OF THE PICTURE EARLY THIS MORNING.

AFTER 12Z...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND LOSE DEFINITION AS IT TRIES TO CROSS THE AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS WITH THE FRONT...MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...VFR WILL PREVAIL
TODAY. ALSO...SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME
MODERATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 MPH IN SOME LOCATIONS.

AFTER 00Z...FRONT LOSES DEFINITION AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE AREA. WITH CLOUDS AND WINDS DECREASING...EXPECTING MVFR TO
IFR RIVER AND VALLEY FOG TO FORM BY 06Z...AFFECTING MOST OF THE
MAJOR TERMINALS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD VARY
BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. ONSET OF FOG TONIGHT MAY BE DELAYED IF CLOUDS
HANG ON LONGER.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    TUE 09/02/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR IN RIVER AND VALLEY FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...JMV









000
FXUS61 KRLX 020822
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
422 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS. VERY WARM AND
HUMID THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EVEN THOUGH WE ARE TRANSITIONING INTO THE COOL SEASON...THE PATTERN
STILL SHOWS SIGNS OF SUMMER AS STRONG UPPER RIDGING HOLDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE NATION. THIS KEEPS OUR AREA IN THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES WHICH HAS IMPLICATIONS ON ANY FRONT AFFECTING
US.

MODELS AGREE ON A STOUT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND ON
INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...WITH A VORT LOBE TRAILING SOUTH ACROSS
OUR AREA. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT IS WEAK AND WILL LOSE
DEFINITION AS IT TRIES TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT APPEARS THE FRONT ITSELF WILL HAVE LESSER
IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. THE GREATEST IMPACT WILL COME FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH DYNAMICS IN THE FORM OF A WELL DEFINED RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE UPPER JET AND THE TRAILING VORT LOBE. WITH PW`S AROUND 2
INCHES AND A MODEST 850 MB SOUTHWESTERLY JET COINCIDING WITH THE
UPPER DYNAMICS...WE EXPECT A BAND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE
ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC DOES HAVE THE NORTHWEST HALF
OF OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...SO WILL ADD
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL FOR NOW TO THE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.
TIMING OF THE STORMS IS BASED ON GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT...REACHING THE
OHIO RIVER AROUND 18Z AND PROGRESSING TO THE MOUNTAINS BY 22Z.
THINGS QUICKLY WIND DOWN THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY
AND LOSS OF HEATING...LEAVING ONLY THE FAR SOUTHEAST WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BY MIDNIGHT. LEANING ON LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
FOR MAX TEMPS NORTHWEST AND HIGHER SIDE SOUTHEAST DUE TO CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION.

FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE FRONT BY THIS TIME IS ILL DEFINED AT BEST AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER. LOOKS LIKE ANY DRIER AIR THAT MAKES
IT INTO THE NORTH AND WEST WILL NOT GET ANY FARTHER. SO WITH LOSS OF
WIND FLOW AND DECREASING CLOUDS...EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF RIVER AND
VALLEY FOG TONIGHT...EVEN UP NORTH AND WEST AS BETTER RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL COMPENSATE FOR ANY LOSS OF MOISTURE. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL
BE A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH PROVES TO BE PERSISTENT
AND STILL WILL NOT BE ABLE TO SHAKE THE 590DKM LINE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. DESPITE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
WEDNESDAY...THINK WE WILL HAVE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO POP
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HEATING HOURS. STRETCHED
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA BASED ON THIS
REASONING.

LEFT THURSDAY LARGELY DRY AS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH THE
MOUNTAINS AND TUG VALLEY IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE AREA AS BEFORE. NAM
BRINGS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS ALOFT OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES IN
SOUTHEAST OHIO...BUT COLUMN WILL LIKELY BE TOO DRY AT THIS POINT FOR
ANYTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE TO DEVELOP.

BRING THE POPS BACK IN AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES...AND FIGURE TO
GET SOME BETTER DESTABILIZATION DURING THE DAY WITH PRESSURE FALLS.

KEEP THE HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER THE 90 DEGREE
MARK GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND MOIST GROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HEATING BACK UP...AS THE SOUTHERN 500 MB RIDGE BUILDS BACK NORTH FOR
FRIDAY.  SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION COULD OCCUR FRIDAY...BUT POPS
MOSTLY 20 AND 30 PERCENT.

PER WPC MEDIUM COORDINATION...CONTINUE TO TREND SLOWER THAN THE GFS
ON THE NEXT FRONT. 12Z GFS QUICKLY DRIES OUT OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY.  PREFER THE SLOWER ECWMF SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME...INCREASED POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING. HOLDING SOME CHANCE POPS EVEN INTO SUNDAY MORNING
FOR NORTHERN COUNTIES...AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES.  DRY MONDAY...EXCEPT AGAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG
THE EASTERN SLOPES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
06Z TUESDAY THRU 06Z WEDNESDAY...
WEAK UPPER TROUGH WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTHEAST WV WILL END BY
10Z...OTHERWISE VFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
WIND TO KEEP SIGNIFICANT FOG OUT OF THE PICTURE EARLY THIS MORNING.

AFTER 12Z...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND LOSE DEFINITION AS IT TRIES TO CROSS THE AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS WITH THE FRONT...MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...VFR WILL PREVAIL
TODAY. ALSO...SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME
MODERATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 MPH IN SOME LOCATIONS.

AFTER 00Z...FRONT LOSES DEFINITION AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE AREA. WITH CLOUDS AND WINDS DECREASING...EXPECTING MVFR TO
IFR RIVER AND VALLEY FOG TO FORM BY 06Z...AFFECTING MOST OF THE
MAJOR TERMINALS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD VARY
BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. ONSET OF FOG TONIGHT MAY BE DELAYED IF CLOUDS
HANG ON LONGER.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    TUE 09/02/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR IN RIVER AND VALLEY FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...JMV









000
FXUS61 KRLX 020604
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
152 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS. DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR TRIES TO OOZE SOUTH FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATED THE POPS THIS EVENING BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE
TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE ENTER SEPTEMBER...THE LATE SUMMER PATTERN SEEMS TO HOLD...AS
WE RESIDE WHERE FRONTS COME TO WEAKEN/DIE.  THE SOUTHERN RIDGE
OCCASIONALLY WEAKENS ALLOWING FRONT IN THE WESTERLIES TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA...BUT WEAKEN AS THEY TRY TO MOVE FURTHER SOUTH.  SUCH IS
THE CASE TUESDAY NIGHT.

DRYING ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY WITH MORE STABLE
AIR...BUT WILL BE LESS AGGRESSIVE DROPPING THE SURFACE DEW POINTS
TOO MUCH WITH THE EXPECTED WET VEGETATION. WILL HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT
CHC POPS IN FAR SW VIRGINIA FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

PICTURE LOTS OF LOW STRATUS AT DAWN WEDNESDAY IN THE WESTERN
LOWLANDS OF WEST VIRGINIA INTO TRI STATE AROUND HTS.  DID NOT
INCLUDE SURFACE FOG YET...BUT THAT MAY ALSO OCCUR.

WITH SOME WEAK SE FLOW DEVELOPING THURSDAY...DID CONTINUE OUR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS DEVELOPING UP THE EASTERN SLOPES...INCLUDING THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AROUND BECKLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HEATING BACK UP...AS THE SOUTHERN 500 MB RIDGE BUILDS BACK NORTH FOR
FRIDAY.  SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION COULD OCCUR FRIDAY...BUT POPS
MOSTLY 20 AND 30 PERCENT.

PER WPC MEDIUM COORDINATION...CONTINUE TO TREND SLOWER THAN THE GFS
ON THE NEXT FRONT. 12Z GFS QUICKLY DRIES OUT OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY.  PREFER THE SLOWER ECWMF SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME...INCREASED POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING. HOLDING SOME CHANCE POPS EVEN INTO SUNDAY MORNING
FOR NORTHERN COUNTIES...AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES.  DRY MONDAY...EXCEPT AGAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG
THE EASTERN SLOPES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
06Z TUESDAY THRU 06Z WEDNESDAY...
WEAK UPPER TROUGH WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTHEAST WV WILL END BY
10Z...OTHERWISE VFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
WIND TO KEEP SIGNIFICANT FOG OUT OF THE PICTURE EARLY THIS MORNING.

AFTER 12Z...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND LOSE DEFINITION AS IT TRIES TO CROSS THE AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS WITH THE FRONT...MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...VFR WILL PREVAIL
TODAY. ALSO...SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME
MODERATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 MPH IN SOME LOCATIONS.

AFTER 00Z...FRONT LOSES DEFINITION AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE AREA. WITH CLOUDS AND WINDS DECREASING...EXPECTING MVFR TO
IFR RIVER AND VALLEY FOG TO FORM BY 06Z...AFFECTING MOST OF THE
MAJOR TERMINALS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD VARY
BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. ONSET OF FOG TONIGHT MAY BE DELAYED IF CLOUDS
HANG ON LONGER.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              TUE 09/02/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR IN RIVER AND VALLEY FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...JMV










000
FXUS61 KRLX 020604
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
152 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS. DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR TRIES TO OOZE SOUTH FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATED THE POPS THIS EVENING BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE
TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE ENTER SEPTEMBER...THE LATE SUMMER PATTERN SEEMS TO HOLD...AS
WE RESIDE WHERE FRONTS COME TO WEAKEN/DIE.  THE SOUTHERN RIDGE
OCCASIONALLY WEAKENS ALLOWING FRONT IN THE WESTERLIES TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA...BUT WEAKEN AS THEY TRY TO MOVE FURTHER SOUTH.  SUCH IS
THE CASE TUESDAY NIGHT.

DRYING ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY WITH MORE STABLE
AIR...BUT WILL BE LESS AGGRESSIVE DROPPING THE SURFACE DEW POINTS
TOO MUCH WITH THE EXPECTED WET VEGETATION. WILL HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT
CHC POPS IN FAR SW VIRGINIA FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

PICTURE LOTS OF LOW STRATUS AT DAWN WEDNESDAY IN THE WESTERN
LOWLANDS OF WEST VIRGINIA INTO TRI STATE AROUND HTS.  DID NOT
INCLUDE SURFACE FOG YET...BUT THAT MAY ALSO OCCUR.

WITH SOME WEAK SE FLOW DEVELOPING THURSDAY...DID CONTINUE OUR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS DEVELOPING UP THE EASTERN SLOPES...INCLUDING THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AROUND BECKLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HEATING BACK UP...AS THE SOUTHERN 500 MB RIDGE BUILDS BACK NORTH FOR
FRIDAY.  SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION COULD OCCUR FRIDAY...BUT POPS
MOSTLY 20 AND 30 PERCENT.

PER WPC MEDIUM COORDINATION...CONTINUE TO TREND SLOWER THAN THE GFS
ON THE NEXT FRONT. 12Z GFS QUICKLY DRIES OUT OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY.  PREFER THE SLOWER ECWMF SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME...INCREASED POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING. HOLDING SOME CHANCE POPS EVEN INTO SUNDAY MORNING
FOR NORTHERN COUNTIES...AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES.  DRY MONDAY...EXCEPT AGAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG
THE EASTERN SLOPES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
06Z TUESDAY THRU 06Z WEDNESDAY...
WEAK UPPER TROUGH WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTHEAST WV WILL END BY
10Z...OTHERWISE VFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
WIND TO KEEP SIGNIFICANT FOG OUT OF THE PICTURE EARLY THIS MORNING.

AFTER 12Z...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND LOSE DEFINITION AS IT TRIES TO CROSS THE AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS WITH THE FRONT...MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...VFR WILL PREVAIL
TODAY. ALSO...SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME
MODERATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 MPH IN SOME LOCATIONS.

AFTER 00Z...FRONT LOSES DEFINITION AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE AREA. WITH CLOUDS AND WINDS DECREASING...EXPECTING MVFR TO
IFR RIVER AND VALLEY FOG TO FORM BY 06Z...AFFECTING MOST OF THE
MAJOR TERMINALS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD VARY
BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. ONSET OF FOG TONIGHT MAY BE DELAYED IF CLOUDS
HANG ON LONGER.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              TUE 09/02/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR IN RIVER AND VALLEY FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...JMV











000
FXUS61 KRLX 012325
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
700 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MUGGY WITH DISTURBANCES ALOFT PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
OVERNIGHT. COOL FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS DRIER
AND MORE STABLE AIR TRIES TO OOZE SOUTH FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED THE POPS THIS EVENING BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE
TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE ENTER SEPTEMBER...THE LATE SUMMER PATTERN SEEMS TO HOLD...AS
WE RESIDE WHERE FRONTS COME TO WEAKEN/DIE.  THE SOUTHERN RIDGE
OCCASIONALLY WEAKENS ALLOWING FRONT IN THE WESTERLIES TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA...BUT WEAKEN AS THEY TRY TO MOVE FURTHER SOUTH.  SUCH IS
THE CASE TUESDAY NIGHT.

DRYING ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY WITH MORE STABLE
AIR...BUT WILL BE LESS AGGRESSIVE DROPPING THE SURFACE DEW POINTS
TOO MUCH WITH THE EXPECTED WET VEGETATION. WILL HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT
CHC POPS IN FAR SW VIRGINIA FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

PICTURE LOTS OF LOW STRATUS AT DAWN WEDNESDAY IN THE WESTERN
LOWLANDS OF WEST VIRGINIA INTO TRI STATE AROUND HTS.  DID NOT
INCLUDE SURFACE FOG YET...BUT THAT MAY ALSO OCCUR.

WITH SOME WEAK SE FLOW DEVELOPING THURSDAY...DID CONTINUE OUR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS DEVELOPING UP THE EASTERN SLOPES...INCLUDING THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AROUND BECKLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HEATING BACK UP...AS THE SOUTHERN 500 MB RIDGE BUILDS BACK NORTH FOR
FRIDAY.  SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION COULD OCCUR FRIDAY...BUT POPS
MOSTLY 20 AND 30 PERCENT.

PER WPC MEDIUM COORDINATION...CONTINUE TO TREND SLOWER THAN THE GFS
ON THE NEXT FRONT. 12Z GFS QUICKLY DRIES OUT OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY.  PREFER THE SLOWER ECWMF SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME...INCREASED POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING. HOLDING SOME CHANCE POPS EVEN INTO SUNDAY MORNING
FOR NORTHERN COUNTIES...AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES.  DRY MONDAY...EXCEPT AGAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG
THE EASTERN SLOPES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A VORTICITY LOBE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY
PRODUCING SOME SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FEATURE MAY ALSO CREATE
A MVFR/VFR STRATUS DECK LATER TONIGHT IN NORTHEASTERN WV. CONFIDENCE
WITH THIS IS LOW HOWEVER. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL PREVENT FOG IN OH/KY
AND WESTERN WV...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME FOG IN PROTECTED VALLEYS NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS. FOG WOULD OF COURSE BE DEPENDENT ON A STRATUS DECK
NOT FORMING.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY...PROVIDING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM...EXCEPT LOW LATE TONIGHT.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF STRATUS OR FOG MAY VARY
LATE TONIGHT. TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR IN SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...RPY











000
FXUS61 KRLX 012325
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
700 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MUGGY WITH DISTURBANCES ALOFT PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
OVERNIGHT. COOL FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS DRIER
AND MORE STABLE AIR TRIES TO OOZE SOUTH FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED THE POPS THIS EVENING BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE
TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE ENTER SEPTEMBER...THE LATE SUMMER PATTERN SEEMS TO HOLD...AS
WE RESIDE WHERE FRONTS COME TO WEAKEN/DIE.  THE SOUTHERN RIDGE
OCCASIONALLY WEAKENS ALLOWING FRONT IN THE WESTERLIES TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA...BUT WEAKEN AS THEY TRY TO MOVE FURTHER SOUTH.  SUCH IS
THE CASE TUESDAY NIGHT.

DRYING ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY WITH MORE STABLE
AIR...BUT WILL BE LESS AGGRESSIVE DROPPING THE SURFACE DEW POINTS
TOO MUCH WITH THE EXPECTED WET VEGETATION. WILL HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT
CHC POPS IN FAR SW VIRGINIA FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

PICTURE LOTS OF LOW STRATUS AT DAWN WEDNESDAY IN THE WESTERN
LOWLANDS OF WEST VIRGINIA INTO TRI STATE AROUND HTS.  DID NOT
INCLUDE SURFACE FOG YET...BUT THAT MAY ALSO OCCUR.

WITH SOME WEAK SE FLOW DEVELOPING THURSDAY...DID CONTINUE OUR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS DEVELOPING UP THE EASTERN SLOPES...INCLUDING THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AROUND BECKLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HEATING BACK UP...AS THE SOUTHERN 500 MB RIDGE BUILDS BACK NORTH FOR
FRIDAY.  SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION COULD OCCUR FRIDAY...BUT POPS
MOSTLY 20 AND 30 PERCENT.

PER WPC MEDIUM COORDINATION...CONTINUE TO TREND SLOWER THAN THE GFS
ON THE NEXT FRONT. 12Z GFS QUICKLY DRIES OUT OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY.  PREFER THE SLOWER ECWMF SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME...INCREASED POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING. HOLDING SOME CHANCE POPS EVEN INTO SUNDAY MORNING
FOR NORTHERN COUNTIES...AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES.  DRY MONDAY...EXCEPT AGAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG
THE EASTERN SLOPES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A VORTICITY LOBE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY
PRODUCING SOME SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FEATURE MAY ALSO CREATE
A MVFR/VFR STRATUS DECK LATER TONIGHT IN NORTHEASTERN WV. CONFIDENCE
WITH THIS IS LOW HOWEVER. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL PREVENT FOG IN OH/KY
AND WESTERN WV...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME FOG IN PROTECTED VALLEYS NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS. FOG WOULD OF COURSE BE DEPENDENT ON A STRATUS DECK
NOT FORMING.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY...PROVIDING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM...EXCEPT LOW LATE TONIGHT.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF STRATUS OR FOG MAY VARY
LATE TONIGHT. TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR IN SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...RPY










000
FXUS61 KRLX 012007
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
345 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MUGGY WITH DISTURBANCES ALOFT BRINGING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS
INTO TONIGHT. COOL FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR TRIES TO OOZE SOUTH FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MESSY FLOW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL RIPPLES FLOWING BY AT 500MB.
CURRENTLY HAVE SHOWERS WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDER DRIFTING NE
ACROSS CWA...WITH ANOTHER LINE OF CONVECTION IN KY...HEADED TOWARD
CWA AT AROUND 30-35KTS. TRYING TO REFLECT THIS LINE WITH SOME
HIGHER POPS. FOR TONIGHT...GFS/NAM/RAP ALL SHOWING ONE LEADING
SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX PASSING OVER...SO ADDED SOME HIGHER CHANCE
POPS WITH THAT.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THINK THE FRONT MAY START WASHING OUT AS IT PASSES
THROUGH...BUT STILL PRETTY GOOD 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING
OVER...SO HAVE LIKELY POPS MOVING THROUGH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THAT.
NAM SOUNDINGS SHOWING AROUND 1500+J/KG CAPE...BUT THINK THAT IS
OVERDONE...ESPECIALLY WITH CLOUD COVER IN PLACE MUCH OF THE DAY.
HOWEVER...HAVE DECENT SHEAR MAX MOVING THROUGH OHIO -- 35-40KTS --
COMBINED WITH SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SO CANNOT RULE OUT STRONG
TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS. ALSO NOTE THAT SPC HAS ADDED A SLIGHT
RISK FOR OHIO VALLEY PORTION OF CWA...SO WILL GO AHEAD AND ADD
THAT TO HWO. STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY
THREAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE ENTER SEPTEMBER...THE LATE SUMMER PATTERN SEEMS TO HOLD...AS
WE RESIDE WHERE FRONTS COME TO WEAKEN/DIE.  THE SOUTHERN RIDGE
OCCASIONALLY WEAKENS ALLOWING FRONT IN THE WESTERLIES TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA...BUT WEAKEN AS THEY TRY TO MOVE FURTHER SOUTH.  SUCH IS
THE CASE TUESDAY NIGHT.

DRYING ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY WITH MORE STABLE
AIR...BUT WILL BE LESS AGGRESSIVE DROPPING THE SURFACE DEW POINTS
TOO MUCH WITH THE EXPECTED WET VEGETATION. WILL HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT
CHC POPS IN FAR SW VIRGINIA FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

PICTURE LOTS OF LOW STRATUS AT DAWN WEDNESDAY IN THE WESTERN
LOWLANDS OF WEST VIRGINIA INTO TRI STATE AROUND HTS.  DID NOT
INCLUDE SURFACE FOG YET...BUT THAT MAY ALSO OCCUR.

WITH SOME WEAK SE FLOW DEVELOPING THURSDAY...DID CONTINUE OUR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS DEVELOPING UP THE EASTERN SLOPES...INCLUDING THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AROUND BECKLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HEATING BACK UP...AS THE SOUTHERN 500 MB RIDGE BUILDS BACK NORTH FOR
FRIDAY.  SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION COULD OCCUR FRIDAY...BUT POPS
MOSTLY 20 AND 30 PERCENT.

PER WPC MEDIUM COORDINATION...CONTINUE TO TREND SLOWER THAN THE GFS
ON THE NEXT FRONT. 12Z GFS QUICKLY DRIES OUT OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY.  PREFER THE SLOWER ECWMF SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME...INCREASED POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING. HOLDING SOME CHANCE POPS EVEN INTO SUNDAY MORNING
FOR NORTHERN COUNTIES...AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES.  DRY MONDAY...EXCEPT AGAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG
THE EASTERN SLOPES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LAST BITS OF THE LOW MVFR STRATUS FINALLY LIFTING. OVERALL EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING...HOWEVER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL DRIFT NE ACROSS FORECAST AREA AND ANY SHOWER THAT
PASSES OVER A TAF SITE COULD PRODUCE MVFR OR EVEN IFR. INCLUDED
VCSH OR VCTS. DID INCLUDE TEMPOS AT CRW AND HTS FOR THE LINE OF
SHOWERS COMING THROUGH KY. WINDS ARE A BIT GUSTY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON OUT OF THE SW.

FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH COMBINATION OF FOG AND CLOUDS.
LEANED TOWARD LAV PROBABILITIES FOR VSBY WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUD DECK. FOR TOMORROW WILL HAVE SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST...MVFR TO IFR MAY BE NEEDED AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES
IN TIMING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM...BUT LOW TONIGHT.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG MAY VARY TONIGHT.
MAY NEED AMENDMENT FOR CONVECTION.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR IN SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...MZ










000
FXUS61 KRLX 012007
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
345 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MUGGY WITH DISTURBANCES ALOFT BRINGING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS
INTO TONIGHT. COOL FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR TRIES TO OOZE SOUTH FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MESSY FLOW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL RIPPLES FLOWING BY AT 500MB.
CURRENTLY HAVE SHOWERS WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDER DRIFTING NE
ACROSS CWA...WITH ANOTHER LINE OF CONVECTION IN KY...HEADED TOWARD
CWA AT AROUND 30-35KTS. TRYING TO REFLECT THIS LINE WITH SOME
HIGHER POPS. FOR TONIGHT...GFS/NAM/RAP ALL SHOWING ONE LEADING
SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX PASSING OVER...SO ADDED SOME HIGHER CHANCE
POPS WITH THAT.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THINK THE FRONT MAY START WASHING OUT AS IT PASSES
THROUGH...BUT STILL PRETTY GOOD 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING
OVER...SO HAVE LIKELY POPS MOVING THROUGH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THAT.
NAM SOUNDINGS SHOWING AROUND 1500+J/KG CAPE...BUT THINK THAT IS
OVERDONE...ESPECIALLY WITH CLOUD COVER IN PLACE MUCH OF THE DAY.
HOWEVER...HAVE DECENT SHEAR MAX MOVING THROUGH OHIO -- 35-40KTS --
COMBINED WITH SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SO CANNOT RULE OUT STRONG
TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS. ALSO NOTE THAT SPC HAS ADDED A SLIGHT
RISK FOR OHIO VALLEY PORTION OF CWA...SO WILL GO AHEAD AND ADD
THAT TO HWO. STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY
THREAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE ENTER SEPTEMBER...THE LATE SUMMER PATTERN SEEMS TO HOLD...AS
WE RESIDE WHERE FRONTS COME TO WEAKEN/DIE.  THE SOUTHERN RIDGE
OCCASIONALLY WEAKENS ALLOWING FRONT IN THE WESTERLIES TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA...BUT WEAKEN AS THEY TRY TO MOVE FURTHER SOUTH.  SUCH IS
THE CASE TUESDAY NIGHT.

DRYING ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY WITH MORE STABLE
AIR...BUT WILL BE LESS AGGRESSIVE DROPPING THE SURFACE DEW POINTS
TOO MUCH WITH THE EXPECTED WET VEGETATION. WILL HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT
CHC POPS IN FAR SW VIRGINIA FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

PICTURE LOTS OF LOW STRATUS AT DAWN WEDNESDAY IN THE WESTERN
LOWLANDS OF WEST VIRGINIA INTO TRI STATE AROUND HTS.  DID NOT
INCLUDE SURFACE FOG YET...BUT THAT MAY ALSO OCCUR.

WITH SOME WEAK SE FLOW DEVELOPING THURSDAY...DID CONTINUE OUR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS DEVELOPING UP THE EASTERN SLOPES...INCLUDING THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AROUND BECKLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HEATING BACK UP...AS THE SOUTHERN 500 MB RIDGE BUILDS BACK NORTH FOR
FRIDAY.  SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION COULD OCCUR FRIDAY...BUT POPS
MOSTLY 20 AND 30 PERCENT.

PER WPC MEDIUM COORDINATION...CONTINUE TO TREND SLOWER THAN THE GFS
ON THE NEXT FRONT. 12Z GFS QUICKLY DRIES OUT OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY.  PREFER THE SLOWER ECWMF SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME...INCREASED POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING. HOLDING SOME CHANCE POPS EVEN INTO SUNDAY MORNING
FOR NORTHERN COUNTIES...AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES.  DRY MONDAY...EXCEPT AGAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG
THE EASTERN SLOPES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LAST BITS OF THE LOW MVFR STRATUS FINALLY LIFTING. OVERALL EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING...HOWEVER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL DRIFT NE ACROSS FORECAST AREA AND ANY SHOWER THAT
PASSES OVER A TAF SITE COULD PRODUCE MVFR OR EVEN IFR. INCLUDED
VCSH OR VCTS. DID INCLUDE TEMPOS AT CRW AND HTS FOR THE LINE OF
SHOWERS COMING THROUGH KY. WINDS ARE A BIT GUSTY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON OUT OF THE SW.

FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH COMBINATION OF FOG AND CLOUDS.
LEANED TOWARD LAV PROBABILITIES FOR VSBY WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUD DECK. FOR TOMORROW WILL HAVE SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST...MVFR TO IFR MAY BE NEEDED AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES
IN TIMING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM...BUT LOW TONIGHT.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG MAY VARY TONIGHT.
MAY NEED AMENDMENT FOR CONVECTION.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR IN SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...MZ











000
FXUS61 KRLX 011809
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
209 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES BRING CLOUDS AND SOME
PASSING SHOWERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. COOL FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY
WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MESSY FLOW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL RIPPLES FLOWING BY AT 500MB.
CURRENTLY HAVE SHOWERS WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDER DRIFTING NE
ACROSS CWA...WITH ANOTHER LINE OF CONVECTION IN KY...HEADED TOWARD
CWA AT AROUND 30-35KTS. TRYING TO REFLECT THIS LINE WITH SOME
HIGHER POPS. FOR TONIGHT...GFS/NAM/RAP ALL SHOWING ONE LEADING
SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX PASSING OVER...SO ADDED SOME HIGHER CHANCE
POPS WITH THAT.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THINK THE FRONT MAY START WASHING OUT AS IT PASSES
THROUGH...BUT STILL PRETTY GOOD 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING
OVER...SO HAVE LIKELY POPS MOVING THROUGH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THAT.
NAM SOUNDINGS SHOWING AROUND 1500+J/KG CAPE...BUT THINK THAT IS
OVERDONE...ESPECIALLY WITH CLOUD COVER IN PLACE MUCH OF THE DAY.
HOWEVER...HAVE DECENT SHEAR MAX MOVING THROUGH OHIO -- 35-40KTS --
COMBINED WITH SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SO CANNOT RULE OUT STRONG
TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS. ALSO NOTE THAT SPC HAS ADDED A SLIGHT
RISK FOR OHIO VALLEY PORTION OF CWA...SO WILL GO AHEAD AND ADD
THAT TO HWO. STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY
THREAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...NO REAL CHANGE IN AIRMASS WILL BE
EXPERIENCED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...SHIFTING TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL PUSH THE TEMPERATURES BACK UP TOWARDS THE 90 DEGREE MARK
FOR THE LOWLANDS BY THURSDAY.

KEEP LOW POPS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN
LOCALIZED AREAS OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH MOSTLY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE
USUAL TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH
DAY...PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP FRIDAY VERSUS
THURSDAY WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE. BY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...LONG TERM OP MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA...WITH ONLY A DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF ROUGHLY SIX OR SO HOURS.
INCREASED POPS TO MID/HIGH CHANCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS SUCH.
BEYOND THAT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE EC AND OP GFS THEN DIVERGE ON
THE HANDLING OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A CLEAN SWEEP
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE EURO HANGING THE FRONT UP NEAR OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES UNDER W/SW FLOW ALOFT. DID ALLOW FOR THE COOLER AIRMASS TO
MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINS DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR
THE LOWLANDS BUT ALSO CONTINUED SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS PER LATEST EC
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LAST BITS OF THE LOW MVFR STRATUS FINALLY LIFTING. OVERALL EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING...HOWEVER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL DRIFT NE ACROSS FORECAST AREA AND ANY SHOWER THAT
PASSES OVER A TAF SITE COULD PRODUCE MVFR OR EVEN IFR. INCLUDED
VCSH OR VCTS. DID INCLUDE TEMPOS AT CRW AND HTS FOR THE LINE OF
SHOWERS COMING THROUGH KY. WINDS ARE A BIT GUSTY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON OUT OF THE SW.

FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH COMBINATION OF FOG AND CLOUDS.
LEANED TOWARD LAV PROBABILITIES FOR VISBY WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUD DECK. FOR TOMORROW WILL HAVE SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST...MVFR TO IFR MAY BE NEEDED AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES
IN TIMING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM...BUT LOW TONIGHT.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG MAY VARY TONIGHT. MAY NEED
AMENDMENT FOR CONVECTION.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR IN SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...MZ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 011809
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
209 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES BRING CLOUDS AND SOME
PASSING SHOWERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. COOL FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY
WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MESSY FLOW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL RIPPLES FLOWING BY AT 500MB.
CURRENTLY HAVE SHOWERS WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDER DRIFTING NE
ACROSS CWA...WITH ANOTHER LINE OF CONVECTION IN KY...HEADED TOWARD
CWA AT AROUND 30-35KTS. TRYING TO REFLECT THIS LINE WITH SOME
HIGHER POPS. FOR TONIGHT...GFS/NAM/RAP ALL SHOWING ONE LEADING
SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX PASSING OVER...SO ADDED SOME HIGHER CHANCE
POPS WITH THAT.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THINK THE FRONT MAY START WASHING OUT AS IT PASSES
THROUGH...BUT STILL PRETTY GOOD 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING
OVER...SO HAVE LIKELY POPS MOVING THROUGH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THAT.
NAM SOUNDINGS SHOWING AROUND 1500+J/KG CAPE...BUT THINK THAT IS
OVERDONE...ESPECIALLY WITH CLOUD COVER IN PLACE MUCH OF THE DAY.
HOWEVER...HAVE DECENT SHEAR MAX MOVING THROUGH OHIO -- 35-40KTS --
COMBINED WITH SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SO CANNOT RULE OUT STRONG
TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS. ALSO NOTE THAT SPC HAS ADDED A SLIGHT
RISK FOR OHIO VALLEY PORTION OF CWA...SO WILL GO AHEAD AND ADD
THAT TO HWO. STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY
THREAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...NO REAL CHANGE IN AIRMASS WILL BE
EXPERIENCED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...SHIFTING TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL PUSH THE TEMPERATURES BACK UP TOWARDS THE 90 DEGREE MARK
FOR THE LOWLANDS BY THURSDAY.

KEEP LOW POPS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN
LOCALIZED AREAS OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH MOSTLY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE
USUAL TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH
DAY...PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP FRIDAY VERSUS
THURSDAY WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE. BY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...LONG TERM OP MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA...WITH ONLY A DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF ROUGHLY SIX OR SO HOURS.
INCREASED POPS TO MID/HIGH CHANCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS SUCH.
BEYOND THAT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE EC AND OP GFS THEN DIVERGE ON
THE HANDLING OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A CLEAN SWEEP
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE EURO HANGING THE FRONT UP NEAR OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES UNDER W/SW FLOW ALOFT. DID ALLOW FOR THE COOLER AIRMASS TO
MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINS DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR
THE LOWLANDS BUT ALSO CONTINUED SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS PER LATEST EC
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LAST BITS OF THE LOW MVFR STRATUS FINALLY LIFTING. OVERALL EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING...HOWEVER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL DRIFT NE ACROSS FORECAST AREA AND ANY SHOWER THAT
PASSES OVER A TAF SITE COULD PRODUCE MVFR OR EVEN IFR. INCLUDED
VCSH OR VCTS. DID INCLUDE TEMPOS AT CRW AND HTS FOR THE LINE OF
SHOWERS COMING THROUGH KY. WINDS ARE A BIT GUSTY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON OUT OF THE SW.

FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH COMBINATION OF FOG AND CLOUDS.
LEANED TOWARD LAV PROBABILITIES FOR VISBY WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUD DECK. FOR TOMORROW WILL HAVE SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST...MVFR TO IFR MAY BE NEEDED AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES
IN TIMING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM...BUT LOW TONIGHT.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG MAY VARY TONIGHT. MAY NEED
AMENDMENT FOR CONVECTION.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR IN SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...MZ








000
FXUS61 KRLX 011431
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1031 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW PROVIDES PLENTY OF CLOUDS THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF A PASSING SHOWER. COOL FRONT CROSSES
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE... TWEAKED POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND HI RES
MODELS TO BETTER CAPTURE SCATTERED SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN OH/KY AS
THEY DRIFT NW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH DEEP TROPICAL LIKE
MOISTURE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY MID MORNING. SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS BY
MID MORNING...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY BY DAWN BEING CONFINED OVER
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF WEST VIRGINIA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
MONDAY...SOME DRYING OCCURS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS...BUT ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AFTER THE
MORNING CLOUDS BREAK...WILL GIVE RISE TO A THREAT OF A PASSING
SHOWER OR STORM. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP POPS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON ON
THE LOW SIDE GIVEN THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND DRYING ALOFT. SO ANY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY ON THE WIDELY SCATTERED SIDE.
THE NAM IS AN TYPICAL OUTLIER WITH GREATER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON...AND IN TURN WITH THE POPS AND QPF. GOING WITH THE
WARMER MAV GUIDANCE WITH AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WARM AND MUGGY
AGAIN TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW PUMPING
MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH OUR
AREA FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT...ENOUGH TO ALLOW A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS CREEPING INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO BY DAWN TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE STORY OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE PERSISTENCE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATING THE PATTERN DESPITE A COLD FRONT TUESDAY
AND A WEAK TROUGH AXIS ALOFT RUNNING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE
COLD FRONT CUTTING THROUGH ON TUESDAY BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VERTICAL PROFILES SHOW MODEST SPEED SHEAR
TUESDAY...SO COULD SEE SOME ORGANIZATION INTO SOME SEGMENTS. BUT THE
MOISTURE REMAINS TROPICAL LIKE...OVER 1.75 INCHES IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER...WITH MUCH OF IT USABLE. ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE IS THE
INVERTED V FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SO THIS COULD ADD TO A GUST THREAT.

HOWEVER...PER SPC...HAVE SOME CLOUD COVER TO DEAL WITH...SO THAT
COULD HINDER THE DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SPC ROLLING WITH A SEE TEXT AREA.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...NO REAL CHANGE IN AIRMASS WILL BE
EXPERIENCED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...SHIFTING TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL PUSH THE TEMPERATURES BACK UP TOWARDS THE 90 DEGREE MARK
FOR THE LOWLANDS BY THURSDAY.

KEEP LOW POPS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN
LOCALIZED AREAS OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH MOSTLY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE
USUAL TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH
DAY...PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP FRIDAY VERSUS
THURSDAY WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE. BY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...LONG TERM OP MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA...WITH ONLY A DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF ROUGHLY SIX OR SO HOURS.
INCREASED POPS TO MID/HIGH CHANCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS SUCH.
BEYOND THAT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE EC AND OP GFS THEN DIVERGE ON
THE HANDLING OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A CLEAN SWEEP
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE EURO HANGING THE FRONT UP NEAR OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES UNDER W/SW FLOW ALOFT. DID ALLOW FOR THE COOLER AIRMASS TO
MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINS DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR
THE LOWLANDS BUT ALSO CONTINUED SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS PER LATEST EC
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12Z MONDAY THRU 12Z TUESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH SHOWERS AND A STORM UNTIL AROUND
14Z...PRIMARILY OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN WV. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD
MVFR STRATUS...IFR STRATUS 10Z TO 13Z...WILL LAST UNTIL AROUND 16Z.
FOG WILL GENERALLY BE LOCALIZED AND MOSTLY IN THE MVFR RANGE UNTIL
13Z OVER THE MOST PRONE RIVERS AND VALLEYS....ESPECIALLY EKN.

AFTER 16Z CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST TO VFR SCT-BKN
CLOUDS AROUND 4000 FEET 18Z TO 22Z...AND CONTINUING TO 06Z TUESDAY.
ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS.

AFTER 00Z...VFR BECOMING MVFR CEILINGS 06Z TO 08Z. GENERALLY MVFR RIVER
AND VALLEY FOG AFTER 06Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW THIS MORNING...HIGH THIS AFTERNOON.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ENDING TIME OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING COULD VARY.
TIMING OF LIFTING OF STRATUS DECK INTO CU DECK LATER THIS MORNING
COULD ALSO VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR IN SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...JMV








000
FXUS61 KRLX 011431
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1031 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW PROVIDES PLENTY OF CLOUDS THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF A PASSING SHOWER. COOL FRONT CROSSES
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE... TWEAKED POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND HI RES
MODELS TO BETTER CAPTURE SCATTERED SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN OH/KY AS
THEY DRIFT NW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH DEEP TROPICAL LIKE
MOISTURE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY MID MORNING. SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS BY
MID MORNING...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY BY DAWN BEING CONFINED OVER
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF WEST VIRGINIA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
MONDAY...SOME DRYING OCCURS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS...BUT ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AFTER THE
MORNING CLOUDS BREAK...WILL GIVE RISE TO A THREAT OF A PASSING
SHOWER OR STORM. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP POPS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON ON
THE LOW SIDE GIVEN THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND DRYING ALOFT. SO ANY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY ON THE WIDELY SCATTERED SIDE.
THE NAM IS AN TYPICAL OUTLIER WITH GREATER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON...AND IN TURN WITH THE POPS AND QPF. GOING WITH THE
WARMER MAV GUIDANCE WITH AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WARM AND MUGGY
AGAIN TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW PUMPING
MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH OUR
AREA FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT...ENOUGH TO ALLOW A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS CREEPING INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO BY DAWN TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE STORY OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE PERSISTENCE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATING THE PATTERN DESPITE A COLD FRONT TUESDAY
AND A WEAK TROUGH AXIS ALOFT RUNNING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE
COLD FRONT CUTTING THROUGH ON TUESDAY BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VERTICAL PROFILES SHOW MODEST SPEED SHEAR
TUESDAY...SO COULD SEE SOME ORGANIZATION INTO SOME SEGMENTS. BUT THE
MOISTURE REMAINS TROPICAL LIKE...OVER 1.75 INCHES IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER...WITH MUCH OF IT USABLE. ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE IS THE
INVERTED V FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SO THIS COULD ADD TO A GUST THREAT.

HOWEVER...PER SPC...HAVE SOME CLOUD COVER TO DEAL WITH...SO THAT
COULD HINDER THE DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SPC ROLLING WITH A SEE TEXT AREA.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...NO REAL CHANGE IN AIRMASS WILL BE
EXPERIENCED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...SHIFTING TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL PUSH THE TEMPERATURES BACK UP TOWARDS THE 90 DEGREE MARK
FOR THE LOWLANDS BY THURSDAY.

KEEP LOW POPS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN
LOCALIZED AREAS OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH MOSTLY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE
USUAL TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH
DAY...PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP FRIDAY VERSUS
THURSDAY WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE. BY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...LONG TERM OP MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA...WITH ONLY A DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF ROUGHLY SIX OR SO HOURS.
INCREASED POPS TO MID/HIGH CHANCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS SUCH.
BEYOND THAT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE EC AND OP GFS THEN DIVERGE ON
THE HANDLING OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A CLEAN SWEEP
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE EURO HANGING THE FRONT UP NEAR OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES UNDER W/SW FLOW ALOFT. DID ALLOW FOR THE COOLER AIRMASS TO
MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINS DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR
THE LOWLANDS BUT ALSO CONTINUED SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS PER LATEST EC
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12Z MONDAY THRU 12Z TUESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH SHOWERS AND A STORM UNTIL AROUND
14Z...PRIMARILY OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN WV. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD
MVFR STRATUS...IFR STRATUS 10Z TO 13Z...WILL LAST UNTIL AROUND 16Z.
FOG WILL GENERALLY BE LOCALIZED AND MOSTLY IN THE MVFR RANGE UNTIL
13Z OVER THE MOST PRONE RIVERS AND VALLEYS....ESPECIALLY EKN.

AFTER 16Z CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST TO VFR SCT-BKN
CLOUDS AROUND 4000 FEET 18Z TO 22Z...AND CONTINUING TO 06Z TUESDAY.
ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS.

AFTER 00Z...VFR BECOMING MVFR CEILINGS 06Z TO 08Z. GENERALLY MVFR RIVER
AND VALLEY FOG AFTER 06Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW THIS MORNING...HIGH THIS AFTERNOON.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ENDING TIME OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING COULD VARY.
TIMING OF LIFTING OF STRATUS DECK INTO CU DECK LATER THIS MORNING
COULD ALSO VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR IN SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...JMV








000
FXUS61 KRLX 011431
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1031 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW PROVIDES PLENTY OF CLOUDS THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF A PASSING SHOWER. COOL FRONT CROSSES
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE... TWEAKED POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND HI RES
MODELS TO BETTER CAPTURE SCATTERED SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN OH/KY AS
THEY DRIFT NW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH DEEP TROPICAL LIKE
MOISTURE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY MID MORNING. SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS BY
MID MORNING...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY BY DAWN BEING CONFINED OVER
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF WEST VIRGINIA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
MONDAY...SOME DRYING OCCURS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS...BUT ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AFTER THE
MORNING CLOUDS BREAK...WILL GIVE RISE TO A THREAT OF A PASSING
SHOWER OR STORM. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP POPS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON ON
THE LOW SIDE GIVEN THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND DRYING ALOFT. SO ANY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY ON THE WIDELY SCATTERED SIDE.
THE NAM IS AN TYPICAL OUTLIER WITH GREATER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON...AND IN TURN WITH THE POPS AND QPF. GOING WITH THE
WARMER MAV GUIDANCE WITH AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WARM AND MUGGY
AGAIN TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW PUMPING
MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH OUR
AREA FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT...ENOUGH TO ALLOW A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS CREEPING INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO BY DAWN TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE STORY OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE PERSISTENCE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATING THE PATTERN DESPITE A COLD FRONT TUESDAY
AND A WEAK TROUGH AXIS ALOFT RUNNING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE
COLD FRONT CUTTING THROUGH ON TUESDAY BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VERTICAL PROFILES SHOW MODEST SPEED SHEAR
TUESDAY...SO COULD SEE SOME ORGANIZATION INTO SOME SEGMENTS. BUT THE
MOISTURE REMAINS TROPICAL LIKE...OVER 1.75 INCHES IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER...WITH MUCH OF IT USABLE. ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE IS THE
INVERTED V FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SO THIS COULD ADD TO A GUST THREAT.

HOWEVER...PER SPC...HAVE SOME CLOUD COVER TO DEAL WITH...SO THAT
COULD HINDER THE DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SPC ROLLING WITH A SEE TEXT AREA.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...NO REAL CHANGE IN AIRMASS WILL BE
EXPERIENCED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...SHIFTING TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL PUSH THE TEMPERATURES BACK UP TOWARDS THE 90 DEGREE MARK
FOR THE LOWLANDS BY THURSDAY.

KEEP LOW POPS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN
LOCALIZED AREAS OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH MOSTLY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE
USUAL TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH
DAY...PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP FRIDAY VERSUS
THURSDAY WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE. BY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...LONG TERM OP MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA...WITH ONLY A DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF ROUGHLY SIX OR SO HOURS.
INCREASED POPS TO MID/HIGH CHANCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS SUCH.
BEYOND THAT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE EC AND OP GFS THEN DIVERGE ON
THE HANDLING OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A CLEAN SWEEP
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE EURO HANGING THE FRONT UP NEAR OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES UNDER W/SW FLOW ALOFT. DID ALLOW FOR THE COOLER AIRMASS TO
MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINS DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR
THE LOWLANDS BUT ALSO CONTINUED SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS PER LATEST EC
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12Z MONDAY THRU 12Z TUESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH SHOWERS AND A STORM UNTIL AROUND
14Z...PRIMARILY OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN WV. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD
MVFR STRATUS...IFR STRATUS 10Z TO 13Z...WILL LAST UNTIL AROUND 16Z.
FOG WILL GENERALLY BE LOCALIZED AND MOSTLY IN THE MVFR RANGE UNTIL
13Z OVER THE MOST PRONE RIVERS AND VALLEYS....ESPECIALLY EKN.

AFTER 16Z CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST TO VFR SCT-BKN
CLOUDS AROUND 4000 FEET 18Z TO 22Z...AND CONTINUING TO 06Z TUESDAY.
ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS.

AFTER 00Z...VFR BECOMING MVFR CEILINGS 06Z TO 08Z. GENERALLY MVFR RIVER
AND VALLEY FOG AFTER 06Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW THIS MORNING...HIGH THIS AFTERNOON.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ENDING TIME OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING COULD VARY.
TIMING OF LIFTING OF STRATUS DECK INTO CU DECK LATER THIS MORNING
COULD ALSO VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR IN SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...JMV








000
FXUS61 KRLX 011431
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1031 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW PROVIDES PLENTY OF CLOUDS THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF A PASSING SHOWER. COOL FRONT CROSSES
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE... TWEAKED POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND HI RES
MODELS TO BETTER CAPTURE SCATTERED SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN OH/KY AS
THEY DRIFT NW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH DEEP TROPICAL LIKE
MOISTURE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY MID MORNING. SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS BY
MID MORNING...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY BY DAWN BEING CONFINED OVER
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF WEST VIRGINIA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
MONDAY...SOME DRYING OCCURS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS...BUT ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AFTER THE
MORNING CLOUDS BREAK...WILL GIVE RISE TO A THREAT OF A PASSING
SHOWER OR STORM. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP POPS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON ON
THE LOW SIDE GIVEN THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND DRYING ALOFT. SO ANY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY ON THE WIDELY SCATTERED SIDE.
THE NAM IS AN TYPICAL OUTLIER WITH GREATER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON...AND IN TURN WITH THE POPS AND QPF. GOING WITH THE
WARMER MAV GUIDANCE WITH AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WARM AND MUGGY
AGAIN TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW PUMPING
MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH OUR
AREA FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT...ENOUGH TO ALLOW A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS CREEPING INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO BY DAWN TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE STORY OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE PERSISTENCE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATING THE PATTERN DESPITE A COLD FRONT TUESDAY
AND A WEAK TROUGH AXIS ALOFT RUNNING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE
COLD FRONT CUTTING THROUGH ON TUESDAY BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VERTICAL PROFILES SHOW MODEST SPEED SHEAR
TUESDAY...SO COULD SEE SOME ORGANIZATION INTO SOME SEGMENTS. BUT THE
MOISTURE REMAINS TROPICAL LIKE...OVER 1.75 INCHES IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER...WITH MUCH OF IT USABLE. ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE IS THE
INVERTED V FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SO THIS COULD ADD TO A GUST THREAT.

HOWEVER...PER SPC...HAVE SOME CLOUD COVER TO DEAL WITH...SO THAT
COULD HINDER THE DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SPC ROLLING WITH A SEE TEXT AREA.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...NO REAL CHANGE IN AIRMASS WILL BE
EXPERIENCED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...SHIFTING TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL PUSH THE TEMPERATURES BACK UP TOWARDS THE 90 DEGREE MARK
FOR THE LOWLANDS BY THURSDAY.

KEEP LOW POPS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN
LOCALIZED AREAS OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH MOSTLY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE
USUAL TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH
DAY...PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP FRIDAY VERSUS
THURSDAY WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE. BY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...LONG TERM OP MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA...WITH ONLY A DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF ROUGHLY SIX OR SO HOURS.
INCREASED POPS TO MID/HIGH CHANCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS SUCH.
BEYOND THAT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE EC AND OP GFS THEN DIVERGE ON
THE HANDLING OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A CLEAN SWEEP
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE EURO HANGING THE FRONT UP NEAR OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES UNDER W/SW FLOW ALOFT. DID ALLOW FOR THE COOLER AIRMASS TO
MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINS DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR
THE LOWLANDS BUT ALSO CONTINUED SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS PER LATEST EC
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12Z MONDAY THRU 12Z TUESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH SHOWERS AND A STORM UNTIL AROUND
14Z...PRIMARILY OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN WV. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD
MVFR STRATUS...IFR STRATUS 10Z TO 13Z...WILL LAST UNTIL AROUND 16Z.
FOG WILL GENERALLY BE LOCALIZED AND MOSTLY IN THE MVFR RANGE UNTIL
13Z OVER THE MOST PRONE RIVERS AND VALLEYS....ESPECIALLY EKN.

AFTER 16Z CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST TO VFR SCT-BKN
CLOUDS AROUND 4000 FEET 18Z TO 22Z...AND CONTINUING TO 06Z TUESDAY.
ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS.

AFTER 00Z...VFR BECOMING MVFR CEILINGS 06Z TO 08Z. GENERALLY MVFR RIVER
AND VALLEY FOG AFTER 06Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW THIS MORNING...HIGH THIS AFTERNOON.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ENDING TIME OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING COULD VARY.
TIMING OF LIFTING OF STRATUS DECK INTO CU DECK LATER THIS MORNING
COULD ALSO VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR IN SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...JMV








000
FXUS61 KRLX 011005
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
548 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW PROVIDES PLENTY OF CLOUDS THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF A PASSING SHOWER. COOL FRONT CROSSES
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6 AM UPDATE. SHOWERS BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST WITH EXITING UPPER
TROUGH SO LITTLE UPDATE THIS MORNING. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...NO CHANGE
MADE TO INCREASE THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. SOME LOSS OF MID TO HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE COINCIDES WITH WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND VERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SO
AFTERNOON CONVECTION PRIMARILY DEPENDS ON HOW FAST LOW CLOUDS BREAK
TO ALLOW HEATING AND INSTABILITY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH DEEP TROPICAL LIKE
MOISTURE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY MID MORNING. SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS BY
MID MORNING...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY BY DAWN BEING CONFINED OVER
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF WEST VIRGINIA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
MONDAY...SOME DRYING OCCURS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS...BUT ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AFTER THE
MORNING CLOUDS BREAK...WILL GIVE RISE TO A THREAT OF A PASSING
SHOWER OR STORM. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP POPS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON ON
THE LOW SIDE GIVEN THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND DRYING ALOFT. SO ANY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY ON THE WIDELY SCATTERED SIDE.
THE NAM IS AN TYPICAL OUTLIER WITH GREATER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON...AND IN TURN WITH THE POPS AND QPF. GOING WITH THE
WARMER MAV GUIDANCE WITH AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WARM AND MUGGY
AGAIN TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW PUMPING
MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH OUR
AREA FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT...ENOUGH TO ALLOW A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS CREEPING INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO BY DAWN TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE STORY OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE PERSISTENCE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATING THE PATTERN DESPITE A COLD FRONT TUESDAY
AND A WEAK TROUGH AXIS ALOFT RUNNING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE
COLD FRONT CUTTING THROUGH ON TUESDAY BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VERTICAL PROFILES SHOW MODEST SPEED SHEAR
TUESDAY...SO COULD SEE SOME ORGANIZATION INTO SOME SEGMENTS. BUT THE
MOISTURE REMAINS TROPICAL LIKE...OVER 1.75 INCHES IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER...WITH MUCH OF IT USABLE. ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE IS THE
INVERTED V FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SO THIS COULD ADD TO A GUST THREAT.

HOWEVER...PER SPC...HAVE SOME CLOUD COVER TO DEAL WITH...SO THAT
COULD HINDER THE DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SPC ROLLING WITH A SEE TEXT AREA.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...NO REAL CHANGE IN AIRMASS WILL BE
EXPERIENCED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...SHIFTING TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL PUSH THE TEMPERATURES BACK UP TOWARDS THE 90 DEGREE MARK
FOR THE LOWLANDS BY THURSDAY.

KEEP LOW POPS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN
LOCALIZED AREAS OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH MOSTLY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE
USUAL TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH
DAY...PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP FRIDAY VERSUS
THURSDAY WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE. BY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...LONG TERM OP MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA...WITH ONLY A DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF ROUGHLY SIX OR SO HOURS.
INCREASED POPS TO MID/HIGH CHANCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS SUCH.
BEYOND THAT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE EC AND OP GFS THEN DIVERGE ON
THE HANDLING OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A CLEAN SWEEP
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE EURO HANGING THE FRONT UP NEAR OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES UNDER W/SW FLOW ALOFT. DID ALLOW FOR THE COOLER AIRMASS TO
MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINS DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR
THE LOWLANDS BUT ALSO CONTINUED SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS PER LATEST EC
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12Z MONDAY THRU 12Z TUESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH SHOWERS AND A STORM UNTIL AROUND
14Z...PRIMARILY OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN WV. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD
MVFR STRATUS...IFR STRATUS 10Z TO 13Z...WILL LAST UNTIL AROUND 16Z.
FOG WILL GENERALLY BE LOCALIZED AND MOSTLY IN THE MVFR RANGE UNTIL
13Z OVER THE MOST PRONE RIVERS AND VALLEYS....ESPECIALLY EKN.

AFTER 16Z CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST TO VFR SCT-BKN
CLOUDS AROUND 4000 FEET 18Z TO 22Z...AND CONTINUING TO 06Z TUESDAY.
ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS.

AFTER 00Z...VFR BECOMING MVFR CEILINGS 06Z TO 08Z. GENERALLY MVFR RIVER
AND VALLEY FOG AFTER 06Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW THIS MORNING...HIGH THIS AFTERNOON.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ENDING TIME OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING COULD VARY.
TIMING OF LIFTING OF STRATUS DECK INTO CU DECK LATER THIS MORNING
COULD ALSO VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    MON 09/01/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    L    L    H    M    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    L    L    H    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR IN SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...JMV










000
FXUS61 KRLX 010849
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
428 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW PROVIDES PLENTY OF CLOUDS THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF A PASSING SHOWER. COOL FRONT CROSSES
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH DEEP TROPICAL LIKE
MOISTURE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY MID MORNING. SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS BY
MID MORNING...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY BY DAWN BEING CONFINED OVER
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF WEST VIRGINIA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
MONDAY...SOME DRYING OCCURS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS...BUT ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AFTER THE
MORNING CLOUDS BREAK...WILL GIVE RISE TO A THREAT OF A PASSING
SHOWER OR STORM. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP POPS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON ON
THE LOW SIDE GIVEN THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND DRYING ALOFT. SO ANY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY ON THE WIDELY SCATTERED SIDE.
THE NAM IS AN TYPICAL OUTLIER WITH GREATER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON...AND IN TURN WITH THE POPS AND QPF. GOING WITH THE
WARMER MAV GUIDANCE WITH AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WARM AND MUGGY
AGAIN TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW PUMPING
MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH OUR
AREA FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT...ENOUGH TO ALLOW A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS CREEPING INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO BY DAWN TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE STORY OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE PERSISTENCE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATING THE PATTERN DESPITE A COLD FRONT TUESDAY
AND A WEAK TROUGH AXIS ALOFT RUNNING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE
COLD FRONT CUTTING THROUGH ON TUESDAY BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VERTICAL PROFILES SHOW MODEST SPEED SHEAR
TUESDAY...SO COULD SEE SOME ORGANIZATION INTO SOME SEGMENTS. BUT THE
MOISTURE REMAINS TROPICAL LIKE...OVER 1.75 INCHES IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER...WITH MUCH OF IT USABLE. ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE IS THE
INVERTED V FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SO THIS COULD ADD TO A GUST THREAT.

HOWEVER...PER SPC...HAVE SOME CLOUD COVER TO DEAL WITH...SO THAT
COULD HINDER THE DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SPC ROLLING WITH A SEE TEXT AREA.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...NO REAL CHANGE IN AIRMASS WILL BE
EXPERIENCED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...SHIFTING TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL PUSH THE TEMPERATURES BACK UP TOWARDS THE 90 DEGREE MARK
FOR THE LOWLANDS BY THURSDAY.

KEEP LOW POPS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN
LOCALIZED AREAS OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH MOSTLY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE
USUAL TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH
DAY...PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP FRIDAY VERSUS
THURSDAY WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE. BY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...LONG TERM OP MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA...WITH ONLY A DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF ROUGHLY SIX OR SO HOURS.
INCREASED POPS TO MID/HIGH CHANCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS SUCH.
BEYOND THAT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE EC AND OP GFS THEN DIVERGE ON
THE HANDLING OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A CLEAN SWEEP
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE EURO HANGING THE FRONT UP NEAR OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES UNDER W/SW FLOW ALOFT. DID ALLOW FOR THE COOLER AIRMASS TO
MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINS DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR
THE LOWLANDS BUT ALSO CONTINUED SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS PER LATEST EC
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
09Z MONDAY THRU 06Z TUESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH SHOWERS AND A STORM UNTIL AROUND
14Z...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEASTERN WV. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD MVFR
STRATUS...IFR STRATUS 10Z TO 13Z...WILL LAST UNTIL AROUND 16Z. FOG
WILL GENERALLY BE LOCALIZED AND MOSTLY IN THE MVFR RANGE UNTIL 13Z
OVER THE MOST PRONE RIVERS AND VALLEYS....ESPECIALLY EKN.

AFTER 16Z CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST TO VFR SCT-BKN
CLOUDS AROUND 4000 FEET 18Z TO 22Z...AND CONTINUING TO 06Z TUESDAY.
ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW THIS MORNING...HIGH THIS AFTERNOON.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ENDING TIME OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING COULD VARY.
TIMING OF LIFTING OF STRATUS DECK INTO CU DECK LATER THIS MORNING
COULD ALSO VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    MON 09/01/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    L    L    H    M    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    L    L    H    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR IN SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...JMV











000
FXUS61 KRLX 010849
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
428 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW PROVIDES PLENTY OF CLOUDS THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF A PASSING SHOWER. COOL FRONT CROSSES
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH DEEP TROPICAL LIKE
MOISTURE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY MID MORNING. SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS BY
MID MORNING...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY BY DAWN BEING CONFINED OVER
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF WEST VIRGINIA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
MONDAY...SOME DRYING OCCURS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS...BUT ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AFTER THE
MORNING CLOUDS BREAK...WILL GIVE RISE TO A THREAT OF A PASSING
SHOWER OR STORM. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP POPS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON ON
THE LOW SIDE GIVEN THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND DRYING ALOFT. SO ANY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY ON THE WIDELY SCATTERED SIDE.
THE NAM IS AN TYPICAL OUTLIER WITH GREATER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON...AND IN TURN WITH THE POPS AND QPF. GOING WITH THE
WARMER MAV GUIDANCE WITH AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WARM AND MUGGY
AGAIN TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW PUMPING
MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH OUR
AREA FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT...ENOUGH TO ALLOW A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS CREEPING INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO BY DAWN TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE STORY OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE PERSISTENCE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATING THE PATTERN DESPITE A COLD FRONT TUESDAY
AND A WEAK TROUGH AXIS ALOFT RUNNING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE
COLD FRONT CUTTING THROUGH ON TUESDAY BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VERTICAL PROFILES SHOW MODEST SPEED SHEAR
TUESDAY...SO COULD SEE SOME ORGANIZATION INTO SOME SEGMENTS. BUT THE
MOISTURE REMAINS TROPICAL LIKE...OVER 1.75 INCHES IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER...WITH MUCH OF IT USABLE. ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE IS THE
INVERTED V FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SO THIS COULD ADD TO A GUST THREAT.

HOWEVER...PER SPC...HAVE SOME CLOUD COVER TO DEAL WITH...SO THAT
COULD HINDER THE DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SPC ROLLING WITH A SEE TEXT AREA.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...NO REAL CHANGE IN AIRMASS WILL BE
EXPERIENCED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...SHIFTING TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL PUSH THE TEMPERATURES BACK UP TOWARDS THE 90 DEGREE MARK
FOR THE LOWLANDS BY THURSDAY.

KEEP LOW POPS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN
LOCALIZED AREAS OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH MOSTLY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE
USUAL TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH
DAY...PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP FRIDAY VERSUS
THURSDAY WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE. BY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...LONG TERM OP MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA...WITH ONLY A DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF ROUGHLY SIX OR SO HOURS.
INCREASED POPS TO MID/HIGH CHANCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS SUCH.
BEYOND THAT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE EC AND OP GFS THEN DIVERGE ON
THE HANDLING OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A CLEAN SWEEP
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE EURO HANGING THE FRONT UP NEAR OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES UNDER W/SW FLOW ALOFT. DID ALLOW FOR THE COOLER AIRMASS TO
MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINS DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR
THE LOWLANDS BUT ALSO CONTINUED SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS PER LATEST EC
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
09Z MONDAY THRU 06Z TUESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH SHOWERS AND A STORM UNTIL AROUND
14Z...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEASTERN WV. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD MVFR
STRATUS...IFR STRATUS 10Z TO 13Z...WILL LAST UNTIL AROUND 16Z. FOG
WILL GENERALLY BE LOCALIZED AND MOSTLY IN THE MVFR RANGE UNTIL 13Z
OVER THE MOST PRONE RIVERS AND VALLEYS....ESPECIALLY EKN.

AFTER 16Z CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST TO VFR SCT-BKN
CLOUDS AROUND 4000 FEET 18Z TO 22Z...AND CONTINUING TO 06Z TUESDAY.
ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW THIS MORNING...HIGH THIS AFTERNOON.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ENDING TIME OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING COULD VARY.
TIMING OF LIFTING OF STRATUS DECK INTO CU DECK LATER THIS MORNING
COULD ALSO VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    MON 09/01/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    L    L    H    M    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    L    L    H    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR IN SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...JMV











000
FXUS61 KRLX 010849
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
428 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW PROVIDES PLENTY OF CLOUDS THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF A PASSING SHOWER. COOL FRONT CROSSES
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH DEEP TROPICAL LIKE
MOISTURE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY MID MORNING. SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS BY
MID MORNING...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY BY DAWN BEING CONFINED OVER
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF WEST VIRGINIA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
MONDAY...SOME DRYING OCCURS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS...BUT ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AFTER THE
MORNING CLOUDS BREAK...WILL GIVE RISE TO A THREAT OF A PASSING
SHOWER OR STORM. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP POPS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON ON
THE LOW SIDE GIVEN THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND DRYING ALOFT. SO ANY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY ON THE WIDELY SCATTERED SIDE.
THE NAM IS AN TYPICAL OUTLIER WITH GREATER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON...AND IN TURN WITH THE POPS AND QPF. GOING WITH THE
WARMER MAV GUIDANCE WITH AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WARM AND MUGGY
AGAIN TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW PUMPING
MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH OUR
AREA FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT...ENOUGH TO ALLOW A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS CREEPING INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO BY DAWN TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE STORY OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE PERSISTENCE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATING THE PATTERN DESPITE A COLD FRONT TUESDAY
AND A WEAK TROUGH AXIS ALOFT RUNNING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE
COLD FRONT CUTTING THROUGH ON TUESDAY BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VERTICAL PROFILES SHOW MODEST SPEED SHEAR
TUESDAY...SO COULD SEE SOME ORGANIZATION INTO SOME SEGMENTS. BUT THE
MOISTURE REMAINS TROPICAL LIKE...OVER 1.75 INCHES IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER...WITH MUCH OF IT USABLE. ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE IS THE
INVERTED V FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SO THIS COULD ADD TO A GUST THREAT.

HOWEVER...PER SPC...HAVE SOME CLOUD COVER TO DEAL WITH...SO THAT
COULD HINDER THE DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SPC ROLLING WITH A SEE TEXT AREA.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...NO REAL CHANGE IN AIRMASS WILL BE
EXPERIENCED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...SHIFTING TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL PUSH THE TEMPERATURES BACK UP TOWARDS THE 90 DEGREE MARK
FOR THE LOWLANDS BY THURSDAY.

KEEP LOW POPS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN
LOCALIZED AREAS OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH MOSTLY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE
USUAL TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH
DAY...PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP FRIDAY VERSUS
THURSDAY WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE. BY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...LONG TERM OP MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA...WITH ONLY A DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF ROUGHLY SIX OR SO HOURS.
INCREASED POPS TO MID/HIGH CHANCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS SUCH.
BEYOND THAT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE EC AND OP GFS THEN DIVERGE ON
THE HANDLING OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A CLEAN SWEEP
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE EURO HANGING THE FRONT UP NEAR OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES UNDER W/SW FLOW ALOFT. DID ALLOW FOR THE COOLER AIRMASS TO
MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINS DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR
THE LOWLANDS BUT ALSO CONTINUED SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS PER LATEST EC
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
09Z MONDAY THRU 06Z TUESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH SHOWERS AND A STORM UNTIL AROUND
14Z...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEASTERN WV. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD MVFR
STRATUS...IFR STRATUS 10Z TO 13Z...WILL LAST UNTIL AROUND 16Z. FOG
WILL GENERALLY BE LOCALIZED AND MOSTLY IN THE MVFR RANGE UNTIL 13Z
OVER THE MOST PRONE RIVERS AND VALLEYS....ESPECIALLY EKN.

AFTER 16Z CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST TO VFR SCT-BKN
CLOUDS AROUND 4000 FEET 18Z TO 22Z...AND CONTINUING TO 06Z TUESDAY.
ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW THIS MORNING...HIGH THIS AFTERNOON.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ENDING TIME OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING COULD VARY.
TIMING OF LIFTING OF STRATUS DECK INTO CU DECK LATER THIS MORNING
COULD ALSO VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    MON 09/01/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    L    L    H    M    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    L    L    H    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR IN SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...JMV











000
FXUS61 KRLX 010849
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
428 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW PROVIDES PLENTY OF CLOUDS THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF A PASSING SHOWER. COOL FRONT CROSSES
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH DEEP TROPICAL LIKE
MOISTURE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY MID MORNING. SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS BY
MID MORNING...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY BY DAWN BEING CONFINED OVER
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF WEST VIRGINIA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
MONDAY...SOME DRYING OCCURS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS...BUT ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AFTER THE
MORNING CLOUDS BREAK...WILL GIVE RISE TO A THREAT OF A PASSING
SHOWER OR STORM. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP POPS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON ON
THE LOW SIDE GIVEN THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND DRYING ALOFT. SO ANY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY ON THE WIDELY SCATTERED SIDE.
THE NAM IS AN TYPICAL OUTLIER WITH GREATER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON...AND IN TURN WITH THE POPS AND QPF. GOING WITH THE
WARMER MAV GUIDANCE WITH AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WARM AND MUGGY
AGAIN TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW PUMPING
MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH OUR
AREA FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT...ENOUGH TO ALLOW A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS CREEPING INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO BY DAWN TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE STORY OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE PERSISTENCE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATING THE PATTERN DESPITE A COLD FRONT TUESDAY
AND A WEAK TROUGH AXIS ALOFT RUNNING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE
COLD FRONT CUTTING THROUGH ON TUESDAY BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VERTICAL PROFILES SHOW MODEST SPEED SHEAR
TUESDAY...SO COULD SEE SOME ORGANIZATION INTO SOME SEGMENTS. BUT THE
MOISTURE REMAINS TROPICAL LIKE...OVER 1.75 INCHES IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER...WITH MUCH OF IT USABLE. ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE IS THE
INVERTED V FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SO THIS COULD ADD TO A GUST THREAT.

HOWEVER...PER SPC...HAVE SOME CLOUD COVER TO DEAL WITH...SO THAT
COULD HINDER THE DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SPC ROLLING WITH A SEE TEXT AREA.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...NO REAL CHANGE IN AIRMASS WILL BE
EXPERIENCED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...SHIFTING TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL PUSH THE TEMPERATURES BACK UP TOWARDS THE 90 DEGREE MARK
FOR THE LOWLANDS BY THURSDAY.

KEEP LOW POPS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN
LOCALIZED AREAS OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH MOSTLY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE
USUAL TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH
DAY...PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP FRIDAY VERSUS
THURSDAY WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE. BY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...LONG TERM OP MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA...WITH ONLY A DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF ROUGHLY SIX OR SO HOURS.
INCREASED POPS TO MID/HIGH CHANCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS SUCH.
BEYOND THAT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE EC AND OP GFS THEN DIVERGE ON
THE HANDLING OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A CLEAN SWEEP
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE EURO HANGING THE FRONT UP NEAR OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES UNDER W/SW FLOW ALOFT. DID ALLOW FOR THE COOLER AIRMASS TO
MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINS DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR
THE LOWLANDS BUT ALSO CONTINUED SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS PER LATEST EC
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
09Z MONDAY THRU 06Z TUESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH SHOWERS AND A STORM UNTIL AROUND
14Z...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEASTERN WV. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD MVFR
STRATUS...IFR STRATUS 10Z TO 13Z...WILL LAST UNTIL AROUND 16Z. FOG
WILL GENERALLY BE LOCALIZED AND MOSTLY IN THE MVFR RANGE UNTIL 13Z
OVER THE MOST PRONE RIVERS AND VALLEYS....ESPECIALLY EKN.

AFTER 16Z CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST TO VFR SCT-BKN
CLOUDS AROUND 4000 FEET 18Z TO 22Z...AND CONTINUING TO 06Z TUESDAY.
ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW THIS MORNING...HIGH THIS AFTERNOON.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ENDING TIME OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING COULD VARY.
TIMING OF LIFTING OF STRATUS DECK INTO CU DECK LATER THIS MORNING
COULD ALSO VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    MON 09/01/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    L    L    H    M    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    L    L    H    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR IN SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...JMV











000
FXUS61 KRLX 010736
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
336 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW PROVIDES PLENTY OF CLOUDS THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF A PASSING SHOWER. COOL FRONT CROSSES
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH DEEP TROPICAL LIKE
MOISTURE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY MID MORNING. SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS BY
MID MORNING...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY BY DAWN BEING CONFINED OVER
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF WEST VIRGINIA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
MONDAY...SOME DRYING OCCURS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS...BUT ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AFTER THE
MORNING CLOUDS BREAK...WILL GIVE RISE TO A THREAT OF A PASSING
SHOWER OR STORM. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP POPS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON ON
THE LOW SIDE GIVEN THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND DRYING ALOFT. SO ANY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY ON THE WIDELY SCATTERED SIDE.
THE NAM IS AN TYPICAL OUTLIER WITH GREATER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON...AND IN TURN WITH THE POPS AND QPF. GOING WITH THE
WARMER MAV GUIDANCE WITH AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WARM AND MUGGY
AGAIN TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW PUMPING
MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH OUR
AREA FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT...ENOUGH TO ALLOW A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS CREEPING INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO BY DAWN TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE STORY OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE PERSISTENCE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATING THE PATTERN DESPITE A COLD FRONT TUESDAY
AND A WEAK TROUGH AXIS ALOFT RUNNING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE
COLD FRONT CUTTING THROUGH ON TUESDAY BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VERTICAL PROFILES SHOW MODEST SPEED SHEAR
TUESDAY...SO COULD SEE SOME ORGANIZATION INTO SOME SEGMENTS. BUT THE
MOISTURE REMAINS TROPICAL LIKE...OVER 1.75 INCHES IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER...WITH MUCH OF IT USABLE. ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE IS THE
INVERTED V FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SO THIS COULD ADD TO A GUST THREAT.

HOWEVER...PER SPC...HAVE SOME CLOUD COVER TO DEAL WITH...SO THAT
COULD HINDER THE DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SPC ROLLING WITH A SEE TEXT AREA.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...NO REAL CHANGE IN AIRMASS WILL BE
EXPERIENCED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...SHIFTING TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL PUSH THE TEMPERATURES BACK UP TOWARDS THE 90 DEGREE MARK
FOR THE LOWLANDS BY THURSDAY.

KEEP LOW POPS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN
LOCALIZED AREAS OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH MOSTLY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE
USUAL TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH
DAY...PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP FRIDAY VERSUS
THURSDAY WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE. BY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...LONG TERM OP MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA...WITH ONLY A DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF ROUGHLY SIX OR SO HOURS.
INCREASED POPS TO MID/HIGH CHANCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS SUCH.
BEYOND THAT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE EC AND OP GFS THEN DIVERGE ON
THE HANDLING OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A CLEAN SWEEP
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE EURO HANGING THE FRONT UP NEAR OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES UNDER W/SW FLOW ALOFT. DID ALLOW FOR THE COOLER AIRMASS TO
MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINS DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR
THE LOWLANDS BUT ALSO CONTINUED SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS PER LATEST EC
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z MONDAY THRU 06Z TUESDAY...
DEEP MOISTURE WILL PREVAIL FOR THIS PERIOD WITH A PASSING SHOWER
POSSIBLE...BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO INSERT INTO TAFS AFTER 10Z.

THRU 16Z MONDAY. LATEST SATELLITE AND OBS AROUND THE REGION SHOW A
WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK HAS DEVELOPED. THESE WILL LAST THRU MONDAY
MORNING...GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS...BUT WITH IFR CEILINGS 09Z TO
13Z. ADD TO THAT SOME MVFR FOG...BRIEFLY IFR PROTECTED MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS 10Z TO 12Z. EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE SOUTH WHERE MVFR
CEILINGS WILL PREDOMINATE... AFFECTING PRIMARILY BKW.

AFTER 16Z CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 4000
FEET BY 22Z...AND CONTINUING TO 06Z TUESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...HIGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS COULD VARY. EXTEND AND HEIGHT
OF STRATUS DECK COULD VARY. FOG COULD BE DENSE IF BRIEF CLEARING
OCCURS IN EASTERN VALLEYS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    MON 09/01/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    L    L    H    M    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    L    L    H    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR IN SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...JMV









000
FXUS61 KRLX 010559
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
141 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW PROVIDES PLENTY OF CLOUDS THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF A PASSING SHOWER. WEAK FRONT CROSSES
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATED THE FORECAST BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS TO
BETTER HANDLE PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY BY THE OUTSET OF THE PERIOD 00Z
TUE...HOWEVER WILL LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS JUST A BIT LONGER
ACROSS THE NORTHERN QUARTER OR SO OF THE CWA WHERE JUST A BIT BETTER
LLVL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO RESIDE ALONG WITH A HINT OF SFC
CONVERGENCE PER LATEST NAM12 RUN. WEAKLY AMPLIFIED SW FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT WILL BACK JUST A
BIT DURING THE DAY TUE WITH THE APPROACH OF A S/W TROUGH WHICH WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AROUND 18Z TUE AND ESSENTIALLY OVERHEAD
BY 00Z WED. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA OUT OF
THE WEST AND BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL IN BY 18Z TUE AND ACROSS NW
OHIO BY 00Z WED. STILL APPEARS THAT A PRE-FRONTAL TYPE BAND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RACE OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...ENTERING INTO THE NW ZONES AROUND 15Z-18Z...NEAR AND/OR
CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER AROUND 19Z-21Z...AND ALONG/EAST OF A CKB-CRW
LINE BY 00Z WED. STRONGER STORMS AND HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD
COME ACROSS THE NW ZONES WHERE MORE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING ECHOES
EXISTS PRIOR TO THE 700MB TROUGH AXIS PASSING...AFTER WHICH STORM
MOTION WILL VEER MORE STRAIGHT EASTERLY WITH THE LINE SPEEDING UP IN
ITS FORWARD PROGRESSION SOME. AN OUTSIDE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
EXISTS WITH GOOD SHEAR IN PLACE AND HIGHER INSTABILITY...AGAIN
MAINLY OVER THE SE OHIO ZONES...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD
HOWEVER. THE BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR SVR STORMS WILL REMAIN WEST AND
NORTH OF THE AREA.

TUE NIGHT AND WED...UPPER TROUGH S/W AXIS CONTINUES EAST OF THE AREA
AFTER 00Z WED WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. MAIN BATCH OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS ENDING AROUND THE 03Z TIME FRAME...AND THEN HAVE ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY ABOUT 06Z WED. ALSO
TRAILED A SECONDARY AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST ZONES WITH THE FRONT ITSELF AS IT ENTERS INTO THAT PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND WASHES OUT. WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD
ON WED WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE ALSO IN PLACE...CENTERED JUST TO OUR
NORTH BY 00Z THU. AS A RESULT...ONCE EARLY MORNING LOW STRATUS BURNS
OFF MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PERHAPS SOME PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BY THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON HOURS. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
POP-UP SHOWER/STORM ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE SLIGHTLY
BETTER LLVL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH MOSTLY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE
USUAL TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH
DAY...PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP FRIDAY VERSUS
THURSDAY WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE. BY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...LONG TERM OP MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA...WITH ONLY A DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF ROUGHLY SIX OR SO HOURS.
INCREASED POPS TO MID/HIGH CHANCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS SUCH.
BEYOND THAT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE EC AND OP GFS THEN DIVERGE ON
THE HANDLING OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A CLEAN SWEEP
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE EURO HANGING THE FRONT UP NEAR OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES UNDER W/SW FLOW ALOFT. DID ALLOW FOR THE COOLER AIRMASS TO
MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINS DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR
THE LOWLANDS BUT ALSO CONTINUED SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS PER LATEST EC
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z MONDAY THRU 06Z TUESDAY...
DEEP MOISTURE WILL PREVAIL FOR THIS PERIOD WITH A PASSING SHOWER
POSSIBLE...BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO INSERT INTO TAFS AFTER 10Z.

THRU 16Z MONDAY. LATEST SATELLITE AND OBS AROUND THE REGION SHOW A
WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK HAS DEVELOPED. THESE WILL LAST THRU MONDAY
MORNING...GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS...BUT WITH IFR CEILINGS 09Z TO
13Z. ADD TO THAT SOME MVFR FOG...BRIEFLY IFR PROTECTED MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS 10Z TO 12Z. EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE SOUTH WHERE MVFR
CEILINGS WILL PREDOMINATE... AFFECTING PRIMARILY BKW.

AFTER 16Z CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 4000
FEET BY 22Z...AND CONTINUING TO 06Z TUESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...HIGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS COULD VARY. EXTEND AND HEIGHT
OF STRATUS DECK COULD VARY. FOG COULD BE DENSE IF BRIEF CLEARING
OCCURS IN EASTERN VALLEYS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              MON 09/01/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    H    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR IN SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/50
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...JMV










000
FXUS61 KRLX 010559
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
141 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW PROVIDES PLENTY OF CLOUDS THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF A PASSING SHOWER. WEAK FRONT CROSSES
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATED THE FORECAST BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS TO
BETTER HANDLE PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY BY THE OUTSET OF THE PERIOD 00Z
TUE...HOWEVER WILL LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS JUST A BIT LONGER
ACROSS THE NORTHERN QUARTER OR SO OF THE CWA WHERE JUST A BIT BETTER
LLVL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO RESIDE ALONG WITH A HINT OF SFC
CONVERGENCE PER LATEST NAM12 RUN. WEAKLY AMPLIFIED SW FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT WILL BACK JUST A
BIT DURING THE DAY TUE WITH THE APPROACH OF A S/W TROUGH WHICH WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AROUND 18Z TUE AND ESSENTIALLY OVERHEAD
BY 00Z WED. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA OUT OF
THE WEST AND BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL IN BY 18Z TUE AND ACROSS NW
OHIO BY 00Z WED. STILL APPEARS THAT A PRE-FRONTAL TYPE BAND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RACE OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...ENTERING INTO THE NW ZONES AROUND 15Z-18Z...NEAR AND/OR
CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER AROUND 19Z-21Z...AND ALONG/EAST OF A CKB-CRW
LINE BY 00Z WED. STRONGER STORMS AND HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD
COME ACROSS THE NW ZONES WHERE MORE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING ECHOES
EXISTS PRIOR TO THE 700MB TROUGH AXIS PASSING...AFTER WHICH STORM
MOTION WILL VEER MORE STRAIGHT EASTERLY WITH THE LINE SPEEDING UP IN
ITS FORWARD PROGRESSION SOME. AN OUTSIDE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
EXISTS WITH GOOD SHEAR IN PLACE AND HIGHER INSTABILITY...AGAIN
MAINLY OVER THE SE OHIO ZONES...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD
HOWEVER. THE BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR SVR STORMS WILL REMAIN WEST AND
NORTH OF THE AREA.

TUE NIGHT AND WED...UPPER TROUGH S/W AXIS CONTINUES EAST OF THE AREA
AFTER 00Z WED WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. MAIN BATCH OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS ENDING AROUND THE 03Z TIME FRAME...AND THEN HAVE ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY ABOUT 06Z WED. ALSO
TRAILED A SECONDARY AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST ZONES WITH THE FRONT ITSELF AS IT ENTERS INTO THAT PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND WASHES OUT. WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD
ON WED WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE ALSO IN PLACE...CENTERED JUST TO OUR
NORTH BY 00Z THU. AS A RESULT...ONCE EARLY MORNING LOW STRATUS BURNS
OFF MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PERHAPS SOME PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BY THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON HOURS. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
POP-UP SHOWER/STORM ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE SLIGHTLY
BETTER LLVL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH MOSTLY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE
USUAL TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH
DAY...PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP FRIDAY VERSUS
THURSDAY WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE. BY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...LONG TERM OP MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA...WITH ONLY A DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF ROUGHLY SIX OR SO HOURS.
INCREASED POPS TO MID/HIGH CHANCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS SUCH.
BEYOND THAT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE EC AND OP GFS THEN DIVERGE ON
THE HANDLING OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A CLEAN SWEEP
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE EURO HANGING THE FRONT UP NEAR OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES UNDER W/SW FLOW ALOFT. DID ALLOW FOR THE COOLER AIRMASS TO
MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINS DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR
THE LOWLANDS BUT ALSO CONTINUED SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS PER LATEST EC
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z MONDAY THRU 06Z TUESDAY...
DEEP MOISTURE WILL PREVAIL FOR THIS PERIOD WITH A PASSING SHOWER
POSSIBLE...BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO INSERT INTO TAFS AFTER 10Z.

THRU 16Z MONDAY. LATEST SATELLITE AND OBS AROUND THE REGION SHOW A
WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK HAS DEVELOPED. THESE WILL LAST THRU MONDAY
MORNING...GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS...BUT WITH IFR CEILINGS 09Z TO
13Z. ADD TO THAT SOME MVFR FOG...BRIEFLY IFR PROTECTED MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS 10Z TO 12Z. EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE SOUTH WHERE MVFR
CEILINGS WILL PREDOMINATE... AFFECTING PRIMARILY BKW.

AFTER 16Z CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 4000
FEET BY 22Z...AND CONTINUING TO 06Z TUESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...HIGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS COULD VARY. EXTEND AND HEIGHT
OF STRATUS DECK COULD VARY. FOG COULD BE DENSE IF BRIEF CLEARING
OCCURS IN EASTERN VALLEYS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              MON 09/01/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    H    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR IN SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/50
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...JMV











000
FXUS61 KRLX 010204
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1001 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROVIDE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. WEAK FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED THE FORECAST BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS TO
BETTER HANDLE PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY BY THE OUTSET OF THE PERIOD 00Z
TUE...HOWEVER WILL LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS JUST A BIT LONGER
ACROSS THE NORTHERN QUARTER OR SO OF THE CWA WHERE JUST A BIT BETTER
LLVL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO RESIDE ALONG WITH A HINT OF SFC
CONVERGENCE PER LATEST NAM12 RUN. WEAKLY AMPLIFIED SW FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT WILL BACK JUST A
BIT DURING THE DAY TUE WITH THE APPROACH OF A S/W TROUGH WHICH WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AROUND 18Z TUE AND ESSENTIALLY OVERHEAD
BY 00Z WED. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA OUT OF
THE WEST AND BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL IN BY 18Z TUE AND ACROSS NW
OHIO BY 00Z WED. STILL APPEARS THAT A PRE-FRONTAL TYPE BAND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RACE OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...ENTERING INTO THE NW ZONES AROUND 15Z-18Z...NEAR AND/OR
CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER AROUND 19Z-21Z...AND ALONG/EAST OF A CKB-CRW
LINE BY 00Z WED. STRONGER STORMS AND HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD
COME ACROSS THE NW ZONES WHERE MORE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING ECHOES
EXISTS PRIOR TO THE 700MB TROUGH AXIS PASSING...AFTER WHICH STORM
MOTION WILL VEER MORE STRAIGHT EASTERLY WITH THE LINE SPEEDING UP IN
ITS FORWARD PROGRESSION SOME. AN OUTSIDE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
EXISTS WITH GOOD SHEAR IN PLACE AND HIGHER INSTABILITY...AGAIN
MAINLY OVER THE SE OHIO ZONES...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD
HOWEVER. THE BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR SVR STORMS WILL REMAIN WEST AND
NORTH OF THE AREA.

TUE NIGHT AND WED...UPPER TROUGH S/W AXIS CONTINUES EAST OF THE AREA
AFTER 00Z WED WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. MAIN BATCH OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS ENDING AROUND THE 03Z TIME FRAME...AND THEN HAVE ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY ABOUT 06Z WED. ALSO
TRAILED A SECONDARY AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST ZONES WITH THE FRONT ITSELF AS IT ENTERS INTO THAT PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND WASHES OUT. WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD
ON WED WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE ALSO IN PLACE...CENTERED JUST TO OUR
NORTH BY 00Z THU. AS A RESULT...ONCE EARLY MORNING LOW STRATUS BURNS
OFF MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PERHAPS SOME PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BY THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON HOURS. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
POP-UP SHOWER/STORM ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE SLIGHTLY
BETTER LLVL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH MOSTLY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE
USUAL TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH
DAY...PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP FRIDAY VERSUS
THURSDAY WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE. BY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...LONG TERM OP MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA...WITH ONLY A DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF ROUGHLY SIX OR SO HOURS.
INCREASED POPS TO MID/HIGH CHANCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS SUCH.
BEYOND THAT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE EC AND OP GFS THEN DIVERGE ON
THE HANDLING OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A CLEAN SWEEP
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE EURO HANGING THE FRONT UP NEAR OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES UNDER W/SW FLOW ALOFT. DID ALLOW FOR THE COOLER AIRMASS TO
MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINS DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR
THE LOWLANDS BUT ALSO CONTINUED SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS PER LATEST EC
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COMPLICATED FORECAST OVERNIGHT. MODELS SHOW A BAND OF SHOWERS
PERSISTING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER A BAND
A STRATUS DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT...AND IF SO...AT WHAT LEVEL. WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS PERSISTING...NOT SURE A LOW STRATUS DECK WILL BE
ABLE TO FORM. SO INSTEAD...OPTED FOR AN MVFR STRATUS DECK WITH SOME
IFR/MVFR FOG IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS. IF TOO MUCH CLEARING
OCCURS...DENSER FOG IS POSSIBLE. WINDS TO THE WEST SHOULD LIMIT THE
THREAT OF FOG THERE. FOG OR STRATUS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT ON
MONDAY...GRADUALLY BECOMING A VFR CUMULUS DECK.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...HIGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS COULD VARY. EXTEND AND HEIGHT
OF STRATUS DECK COULD VARY. FOG COULD BE DENSE IF BRIEF CLEARING
OCCURS IN EASTERN VALLEYS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            MON 09/01/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR IN SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...RPY











000
FXUS61 KRLX 010204
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1001 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROVIDE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. WEAK FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED THE FORECAST BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS TO
BETTER HANDLE PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY BY THE OUTSET OF THE PERIOD 00Z
TUE...HOWEVER WILL LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS JUST A BIT LONGER
ACROSS THE NORTHERN QUARTER OR SO OF THE CWA WHERE JUST A BIT BETTER
LLVL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO RESIDE ALONG WITH A HINT OF SFC
CONVERGENCE PER LATEST NAM12 RUN. WEAKLY AMPLIFIED SW FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT WILL BACK JUST A
BIT DURING THE DAY TUE WITH THE APPROACH OF A S/W TROUGH WHICH WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AROUND 18Z TUE AND ESSENTIALLY OVERHEAD
BY 00Z WED. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA OUT OF
THE WEST AND BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL IN BY 18Z TUE AND ACROSS NW
OHIO BY 00Z WED. STILL APPEARS THAT A PRE-FRONTAL TYPE BAND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RACE OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...ENTERING INTO THE NW ZONES AROUND 15Z-18Z...NEAR AND/OR
CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER AROUND 19Z-21Z...AND ALONG/EAST OF A CKB-CRW
LINE BY 00Z WED. STRONGER STORMS AND HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD
COME ACROSS THE NW ZONES WHERE MORE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING ECHOES
EXISTS PRIOR TO THE 700MB TROUGH AXIS PASSING...AFTER WHICH STORM
MOTION WILL VEER MORE STRAIGHT EASTERLY WITH THE LINE SPEEDING UP IN
ITS FORWARD PROGRESSION SOME. AN OUTSIDE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
EXISTS WITH GOOD SHEAR IN PLACE AND HIGHER INSTABILITY...AGAIN
MAINLY OVER THE SE OHIO ZONES...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD
HOWEVER. THE BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR SVR STORMS WILL REMAIN WEST AND
NORTH OF THE AREA.

TUE NIGHT AND WED...UPPER TROUGH S/W AXIS CONTINUES EAST OF THE AREA
AFTER 00Z WED WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. MAIN BATCH OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS ENDING AROUND THE 03Z TIME FRAME...AND THEN HAVE ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY ABOUT 06Z WED. ALSO
TRAILED A SECONDARY AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST ZONES WITH THE FRONT ITSELF AS IT ENTERS INTO THAT PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND WASHES OUT. WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD
ON WED WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE ALSO IN PLACE...CENTERED JUST TO OUR
NORTH BY 00Z THU. AS A RESULT...ONCE EARLY MORNING LOW STRATUS BURNS
OFF MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PERHAPS SOME PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BY THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON HOURS. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
POP-UP SHOWER/STORM ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE SLIGHTLY
BETTER LLVL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH MOSTLY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE
USUAL TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH
DAY...PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP FRIDAY VERSUS
THURSDAY WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE. BY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...LONG TERM OP MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA...WITH ONLY A DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF ROUGHLY SIX OR SO HOURS.
INCREASED POPS TO MID/HIGH CHANCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS SUCH.
BEYOND THAT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE EC AND OP GFS THEN DIVERGE ON
THE HANDLING OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A CLEAN SWEEP
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE EURO HANGING THE FRONT UP NEAR OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES UNDER W/SW FLOW ALOFT. DID ALLOW FOR THE COOLER AIRMASS TO
MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINS DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR
THE LOWLANDS BUT ALSO CONTINUED SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS PER LATEST EC
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COMPLICATED FORECAST OVERNIGHT. MODELS SHOW A BAND OF SHOWERS
PERSISTING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER A BAND
A STRATUS DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT...AND IF SO...AT WHAT LEVEL. WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS PERSISTING...NOT SURE A LOW STRATUS DECK WILL BE
ABLE TO FORM. SO INSTEAD...OPTED FOR AN MVFR STRATUS DECK WITH SOME
IFR/MVFR FOG IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS. IF TOO MUCH CLEARING
OCCURS...DENSER FOG IS POSSIBLE. WINDS TO THE WEST SHOULD LIMIT THE
THREAT OF FOG THERE. FOG OR STRATUS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT ON
MONDAY...GRADUALLY BECOMING A VFR CUMULUS DECK.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...HIGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS COULD VARY. EXTEND AND HEIGHT
OF STRATUS DECK COULD VARY. FOG COULD BE DENSE IF BRIEF CLEARING
OCCURS IN EASTERN VALLEYS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            MON 09/01/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR IN SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...RPY











000
FXUS61 KRLX 010204
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1001 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROVIDE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. WEAK FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED THE FORECAST BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS TO
BETTER HANDLE PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY BY THE OUTSET OF THE PERIOD 00Z
TUE...HOWEVER WILL LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS JUST A BIT LONGER
ACROSS THE NORTHERN QUARTER OR SO OF THE CWA WHERE JUST A BIT BETTER
LLVL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO RESIDE ALONG WITH A HINT OF SFC
CONVERGENCE PER LATEST NAM12 RUN. WEAKLY AMPLIFIED SW FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT WILL BACK JUST A
BIT DURING THE DAY TUE WITH THE APPROACH OF A S/W TROUGH WHICH WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AROUND 18Z TUE AND ESSENTIALLY OVERHEAD
BY 00Z WED. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA OUT OF
THE WEST AND BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL IN BY 18Z TUE AND ACROSS NW
OHIO BY 00Z WED. STILL APPEARS THAT A PRE-FRONTAL TYPE BAND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RACE OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...ENTERING INTO THE NW ZONES AROUND 15Z-18Z...NEAR AND/OR
CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER AROUND 19Z-21Z...AND ALONG/EAST OF A CKB-CRW
LINE BY 00Z WED. STRONGER STORMS AND HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD
COME ACROSS THE NW ZONES WHERE MORE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING ECHOES
EXISTS PRIOR TO THE 700MB TROUGH AXIS PASSING...AFTER WHICH STORM
MOTION WILL VEER MORE STRAIGHT EASTERLY WITH THE LINE SPEEDING UP IN
ITS FORWARD PROGRESSION SOME. AN OUTSIDE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
EXISTS WITH GOOD SHEAR IN PLACE AND HIGHER INSTABILITY...AGAIN
MAINLY OVER THE SE OHIO ZONES...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD
HOWEVER. THE BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR SVR STORMS WILL REMAIN WEST AND
NORTH OF THE AREA.

TUE NIGHT AND WED...UPPER TROUGH S/W AXIS CONTINUES EAST OF THE AREA
AFTER 00Z WED WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. MAIN BATCH OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS ENDING AROUND THE 03Z TIME FRAME...AND THEN HAVE ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY ABOUT 06Z WED. ALSO
TRAILED A SECONDARY AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST ZONES WITH THE FRONT ITSELF AS IT ENTERS INTO THAT PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND WASHES OUT. WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD
ON WED WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE ALSO IN PLACE...CENTERED JUST TO OUR
NORTH BY 00Z THU. AS A RESULT...ONCE EARLY MORNING LOW STRATUS BURNS
OFF MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PERHAPS SOME PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BY THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON HOURS. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
POP-UP SHOWER/STORM ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE SLIGHTLY
BETTER LLVL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH MOSTLY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE
USUAL TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH
DAY...PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP FRIDAY VERSUS
THURSDAY WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE. BY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...LONG TERM OP MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA...WITH ONLY A DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF ROUGHLY SIX OR SO HOURS.
INCREASED POPS TO MID/HIGH CHANCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS SUCH.
BEYOND THAT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE EC AND OP GFS THEN DIVERGE ON
THE HANDLING OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A CLEAN SWEEP
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE EURO HANGING THE FRONT UP NEAR OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES UNDER W/SW FLOW ALOFT. DID ALLOW FOR THE COOLER AIRMASS TO
MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINS DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR
THE LOWLANDS BUT ALSO CONTINUED SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS PER LATEST EC
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COMPLICATED FORECAST OVERNIGHT. MODELS SHOW A BAND OF SHOWERS
PERSISTING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER A BAND
A STRATUS DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT...AND IF SO...AT WHAT LEVEL. WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS PERSISTING...NOT SURE A LOW STRATUS DECK WILL BE
ABLE TO FORM. SO INSTEAD...OPTED FOR AN MVFR STRATUS DECK WITH SOME
IFR/MVFR FOG IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS. IF TOO MUCH CLEARING
OCCURS...DENSER FOG IS POSSIBLE. WINDS TO THE WEST SHOULD LIMIT THE
THREAT OF FOG THERE. FOG OR STRATUS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT ON
MONDAY...GRADUALLY BECOMING A VFR CUMULUS DECK.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...HIGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS COULD VARY. EXTEND AND HEIGHT
OF STRATUS DECK COULD VARY. FOG COULD BE DENSE IF BRIEF CLEARING
OCCURS IN EASTERN VALLEYS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            MON 09/01/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR IN SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...RPY











000
FXUS61 KRLX 010204
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1001 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROVIDE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. WEAK FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED THE FORECAST BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS TO
BETTER HANDLE PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY BY THE OUTSET OF THE PERIOD 00Z
TUE...HOWEVER WILL LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS JUST A BIT LONGER
ACROSS THE NORTHERN QUARTER OR SO OF THE CWA WHERE JUST A BIT BETTER
LLVL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO RESIDE ALONG WITH A HINT OF SFC
CONVERGENCE PER LATEST NAM12 RUN. WEAKLY AMPLIFIED SW FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT WILL BACK JUST A
BIT DURING THE DAY TUE WITH THE APPROACH OF A S/W TROUGH WHICH WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AROUND 18Z TUE AND ESSENTIALLY OVERHEAD
BY 00Z WED. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA OUT OF
THE WEST AND BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL IN BY 18Z TUE AND ACROSS NW
OHIO BY 00Z WED. STILL APPEARS THAT A PRE-FRONTAL TYPE BAND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RACE OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...ENTERING INTO THE NW ZONES AROUND 15Z-18Z...NEAR AND/OR
CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER AROUND 19Z-21Z...AND ALONG/EAST OF A CKB-CRW
LINE BY 00Z WED. STRONGER STORMS AND HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD
COME ACROSS THE NW ZONES WHERE MORE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING ECHOES
EXISTS PRIOR TO THE 700MB TROUGH AXIS PASSING...AFTER WHICH STORM
MOTION WILL VEER MORE STRAIGHT EASTERLY WITH THE LINE SPEEDING UP IN
ITS FORWARD PROGRESSION SOME. AN OUTSIDE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
EXISTS WITH GOOD SHEAR IN PLACE AND HIGHER INSTABILITY...AGAIN
MAINLY OVER THE SE OHIO ZONES...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD
HOWEVER. THE BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR SVR STORMS WILL REMAIN WEST AND
NORTH OF THE AREA.

TUE NIGHT AND WED...UPPER TROUGH S/W AXIS CONTINUES EAST OF THE AREA
AFTER 00Z WED WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. MAIN BATCH OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS ENDING AROUND THE 03Z TIME FRAME...AND THEN HAVE ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY ABOUT 06Z WED. ALSO
TRAILED A SECONDARY AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST ZONES WITH THE FRONT ITSELF AS IT ENTERS INTO THAT PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND WASHES OUT. WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD
ON WED WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE ALSO IN PLACE...CENTERED JUST TO OUR
NORTH BY 00Z THU. AS A RESULT...ONCE EARLY MORNING LOW STRATUS BURNS
OFF MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PERHAPS SOME PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BY THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON HOURS. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
POP-UP SHOWER/STORM ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE SLIGHTLY
BETTER LLVL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH MOSTLY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE
USUAL TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH
DAY...PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP FRIDAY VERSUS
THURSDAY WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE. BY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...LONG TERM OP MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA...WITH ONLY A DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF ROUGHLY SIX OR SO HOURS.
INCREASED POPS TO MID/HIGH CHANCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS SUCH.
BEYOND THAT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE EC AND OP GFS THEN DIVERGE ON
THE HANDLING OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A CLEAN SWEEP
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE EURO HANGING THE FRONT UP NEAR OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES UNDER W/SW FLOW ALOFT. DID ALLOW FOR THE COOLER AIRMASS TO
MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINS DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR
THE LOWLANDS BUT ALSO CONTINUED SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS PER LATEST EC
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COMPLICATED FORECAST OVERNIGHT. MODELS SHOW A BAND OF SHOWERS
PERSISTING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER A BAND
A STRATUS DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT...AND IF SO...AT WHAT LEVEL. WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS PERSISTING...NOT SURE A LOW STRATUS DECK WILL BE
ABLE TO FORM. SO INSTEAD...OPTED FOR AN MVFR STRATUS DECK WITH SOME
IFR/MVFR FOG IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS. IF TOO MUCH CLEARING
OCCURS...DENSER FOG IS POSSIBLE. WINDS TO THE WEST SHOULD LIMIT THE
THREAT OF FOG THERE. FOG OR STRATUS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT ON
MONDAY...GRADUALLY BECOMING A VFR CUMULUS DECK.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...HIGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS COULD VARY. EXTEND AND HEIGHT
OF STRATUS DECK COULD VARY. FOG COULD BE DENSE IF BRIEF CLEARING
OCCURS IN EASTERN VALLEYS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            MON 09/01/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR IN SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...RPY











000
FXUS61 KRLX 312349
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
742 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROVIDE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. WEAK FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED FORECAST TO BETTER HANDLE THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION
CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY BY THE OUTSET OF THE PERIOD 00Z
TUE...HOWEVER WILL LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS JUST A BIT LONGER
ACROSS THE NORTHERN QUARTER OR SO OF THE CWA WHERE JUST A BIT BETTER
LLVL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO RESIDE ALONG WITH A HINT OF SFC
CONVERGENCE PER LATEST NAM12 RUN. WEAKLY AMPLIFIED SW FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT WILL BACK JUST A
BIT DURING THE DAY TUE WITH THE APPROACH OF A S/W TROUGH WHICH WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AROUND 18Z TUE AND ESSENTIALLY OVERHEAD
BY 00Z WED. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA OUT OF
THE WEST AND BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL IN BY 18Z TUE AND ACROSS NW
OHIO BY 00Z WED. STILL APPEARS THAT A PRE-FRONTAL TYPE BAND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RACE OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...ENTERING INTO THE NW ZONES AROUND 15Z-18Z...NEAR AND/OR
CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER AROUND 19Z-21Z...AND ALONG/EAST OF A CKB-CRW
LINE BY 00Z WED. STRONGER STORMS AND HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD
COME ACROSS THE NW ZONES WHERE MORE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING ECHOES
EXISTS PRIOR TO THE 700MB TROUGH AXIS PASSING...AFTER WHICH STORM
MOTION WILL VEER MORE STRAIGHT EASTERLY WITH THE LINE SPEEDING UP IN
ITS FORWARD PROGRESSION SOME. AN OUTSIDE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
EXISTS WITH GOOD SHEAR IN PLACE AND HIGHER INSTABILITY...AGAIN
MAINLY OVER THE SE OHIO ZONES...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD
HOWEVER. THE BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR SVR STORMS WILL REMAIN WEST AND
NORTH OF THE AREA.

TUE NIGHT AND WED...UPPER TROUGH S/W AXIS CONTINUES EAST OF THE AREA
AFTER 00Z WED WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. MAIN BATCH OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS ENDING AROUND THE 03Z TIME FRAME...AND THEN HAVE ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY ABOUT 06Z WED. ALSO
TRAILED A SECONDARY AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST ZONES WITH THE FRONT ITSELF AS IT ENTERS INTO THAT PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND WASHES OUT. WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD
ON WED WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE ALSO IN PLACE...CENTERED JUST TO OUR
NORTH BY 00Z THU. AS A RESULT...ONCE EARLY MORNING LOW STRATUS BURNS
OFF MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PERHAPS SOME PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BY THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON HOURS. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
POP-UP SHOWER/STORM ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE SLIGHTLY
BETTER LLVL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH MOSTLY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE
USUAL TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH
DAY...PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP FRIDAY VERSUS
THURSDAY WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE. BY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...LONG TERM OP MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA...WITH ONLY A DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF ROUGHLY SIX OR SO HOURS.
INCREASED POPS TO MID/HIGH CHANCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS SUCH.
BEYOND THAT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE EC AND OP GFS THEN DIVERGE ON
THE HANDLING OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A CLEAN SWEEP
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE EURO HANGING THE FRONT UP NEAR OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES UNDER W/SW FLOW ALOFT. DID ALLOW FOR THE COOLER AIRMASS TO
MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINS DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR
THE LOWLANDS BUT ALSO CONTINUED SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS PER LATEST EC
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COMPLICATED FORECAST OVERNIGHT. MODELS SHOW A BAND OF SHOWERS
PERSISTING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER A BAND
A STRATUS DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT...AND IF SO...AT WHAT LEVEL. WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS PERSISTING...NOT SURE A LOW STRATUS DECK WILL BE
ABLE TO FORM. SO INSTEAD...OPTED FOR AN MVFR STRATUS DECK WITH SOME
IFR/MVFR FOG IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS. IF TOO MUCH CLEARING
OCCURS...DENSER FOG IS POSSIBLE. WINDS TO THE WEST SHOULD LIMIT THE
THREAT OF FOG THERE. FOG OR STRATUS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT ON
MONDAY...GRADUALLY BECOMING A VFR CUMULUS DECK.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...HIGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS COULD VARY. EXTEND AND HEIGHT
OF STRATUS DECK COULD VARY. FOG COULD BE DENSE IF BRIEF CLEARING
OCCURS IN EASTERN VALLEYS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            MON 09/01/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR IN SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...ARJ/RPY










000
FXUS61 KRLX 311826
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
226 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROVIDE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. WEAK FRONT CROSSES
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AMPLE MOISTURE EVIDENT IN SATURATED BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...IN
COMBINATION WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEPICTED BY MODELS AS A
SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMAS AT H5...WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AREAS
OF STRATIFORM RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
WITH NO FRONTAL PASSAGE...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN
JUICY...ALLOWING FOR LOW LEVEL STRATUS TO FORM AND PERHAPS LOWER
TO THE SFC AT SOME PLACES DUE TO SUBSIDENCE.

AREAS OF RAIN MAY CONTAIN ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWER MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL WV THIS EVENING. RAIN MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL FORCING.

HAVE NO THUNDER IN THE FORECAST EXCEPT OVER SOUTHEAST OH
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH CHANCES ARE LOW.

SOME CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE BY MID MORNING MONDAY INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIURNAL CU DECK FORMS ACROSS THE AREA FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AT THE SFC...DUE TO RECENT
RAINFALL...EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
PERIODS OF SUNSHINE MONDAY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON COULD BRING HIGHS
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. ADJUSTED PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES
ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY BY THE OUTSET OF THE PERIOD 00Z
TUE...HOWEVER WILL LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS JUST A BIT LONGER
ACROSS THE NORTHERN QUARTER OR SO OF THE CWA WHERE JUST A BIT BETTER
LLVL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO RESIDE ALONG WITH A HINT OF SFC
CONVERGENCE PER LATEST NAM12 RUN. WEAKLY AMPLIFIED SW FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT WILL BACK JUST A
BIT DURING THE DAY TUE WITH THE APPROACH OF A S/W TROUGH WHICH WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AROUND 18Z TUE AND ESSENTIALLY OVERHEAD
BY 00Z WED. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA OUT OF
THE WEST AND BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL IN BY 18Z TUE AND ACROSS NW
OHIO BY 00Z WED. STILL APPEARS THAT A PRE-FRONTAL TYPE BAND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RACE OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...ENTERING INTO THE NW ZONES AROUND 15Z-18Z...NEAR AND/OR
CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER AROUND 19Z-21Z...AND ALONG/EAST OF A CKB-CRW
LINE BY 00Z WED. STRONGER STORMS AND HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD
COME ACROSS THE NW ZONES WHERE MORE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING ECHOES
EXISTS PRIOR TO THE 700MB TROUGH AXIS PASSING...AFTER WHICH STORM
MOTION WILL VEER MORE STRAIGHT EASTERLY WITH THE LINE SPEEDING UP IN
ITS FORWARD PROGRESSION SOME. AN OUTSIDE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
EXISTS WITH GOOD SHEAR IN PLACE AND HIGHER INSTABILITY...AGAIN
MAINLY OVER THE SE OHIO ZONES...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD
HOWEVER. THE BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR SVR STORMS WILL REMAIN WEST AND
NORTH OF THE AREA.

TUE NIGHT AND WED...UPPER TROUGH S/W AXIS CONTINUES EAST OF THE AREA
AFTER 00Z WED WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. MAIN BATCH OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS ENDING AROUND THE 03Z TIME FRAME...AND THEN HAVE ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS BY ABOUT 06Z WED. ALSO
TRAILED A SECONDARY AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST ZONES WITH THE FRONT ITSELF AS IT ENTERS INTO THAT PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND WASHES OUT. WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD
ON WED WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE ALSO IN PLACE...CENTERED JUST TO OUR
NORTH BY 00Z THU. AS A RESULT...ONCE EARLY MORNING LOW STRATUS BURNS
OFF MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PERHAPS SOME PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BY THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON HOURS. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
POP-UP SHOWER/STORM ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE SLIGHTLY
BETTER LLVL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH MOSTLY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE
USUAL TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH
DAY...PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP FRIDAY VERSUS
THURSDAY WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE. BY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...LONG TERM OP MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA...WITH ONLY A DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF ROUGHLY SIX OR SO HOURS.
INCREASED POPS TO MID/HIGH CHANCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS SUCH.
BEYOND THAT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE EC AND OP GFS THEN DIVERGE ON
THE HANDLING OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A CLEAN SWEEP
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE EURO HANGING THE FRONT UP NEAR OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES UNDER W/SW FLOW ALOFT. DID ALLOW FOR THE COOLER AIRMASS TO
MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINS DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR
THE LOWLANDS BUT ALSO CONTINUED SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS PER LATEST EC
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST SITES THROUGH 22Z. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE MVFR UNDER LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE AT HTS...TO MOVE
OVER CRW BY 18-20Z. CONVECTION WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY ACROSS
CENTRAL WV THIS AFTERNOON.

REMOVED TSRA AND VCTS FROM TAFS AS RADAR SHOWS AREA OF PCPN TO BE
MORE STRATIFORM THAN CONVECTIVE.

CONTINUE TO EXPECT EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS DECK TO FORM THIS
EVENING AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD. LOW STRATUS
SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY MAKE VISIBILITIES TO COME DOWN AS WELL
WITH THE RECENT RAIN. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER AREAS
THAT RECEIVED RAIN.

A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR
STORMS EXPECTED.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTEND OF POST RAIN AND SUBSIDENCE OF LOW
STRATUS COULD VARY FROM SITE TO SITE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR IN DENSE EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK. IFR IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...ARJ








000
FXUS61 KRLX 311826
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
226 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROVIDE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. WEAK FRONT CROSSES
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AMPLE MOISTURE EVIDENT IN SATURATED BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...IN
COMBINATION WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEPICTED BY MODELS AS A
SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMAS AT H5...WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AREAS
OF STRATIFORM RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
WITH NO FRONTAL PASSAGE...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN
JUICY...ALLOWING FOR LOW LEVEL STRATUS TO FORM AND PERHAPS LOWER
TO THE SFC AT SOME PLACES DUE TO SUBSIDENCE.

AREAS OF RAIN MAY CONTAIN ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWER MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL WV THIS EVENING. RAIN MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL FORCING.

HAVE NO THUNDER IN THE FORECAST EXCEPT OVER SOUTHEAST OH
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH CHANCES ARE LOW.

SOME CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE BY MID MORNING MONDAY INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIURNAL CU DECK FORMS ACROSS THE AREA FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AT THE SFC...DUE TO RECENT
RAINFALL...EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
PERIODS OF SUNSHINE MONDAY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON COULD BRING HIGHS
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. ADJUSTED PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES
ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY BY THE OUTSET OF THE PERIOD 00Z
TUE...HOWEVER WILL LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS JUST A BIT LONGER
ACROSS THE NORTHERN QUARTER OR SO OF THE CWA WHERE JUST A BIT BETTER
LLVL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO RESIDE ALONG WITH A HINT OF SFC
CONVERGENCE PER LATEST NAM12 RUN. WEAKLY AMPLIFIED SW FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT WILL BACK JUST A
BIT DURING THE DAY TUE WITH THE APPROACH OF A S/W TROUGH WHICH WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AROUND 18Z TUE AND ESSENTIALLY OVERHEAD
BY 00Z WED. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA OUT OF
THE WEST AND BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL IN BY 18Z TUE AND ACROSS NW
OHIO BY 00Z WED. STILL APPEARS THAT A PRE-FRONTAL TYPE BAND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RACE OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...ENTERING INTO THE NW ZONES AROUND 15Z-18Z...NEAR AND/OR
CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER AROUND 19Z-21Z...AND ALONG/EAST OF A CKB-CRW
LINE BY 00Z WED. STRONGER STORMS AND HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD
COME ACROSS THE NW ZONES WHERE MORE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING ECHOES
EXISTS PRIOR TO THE 700MB TROUGH AXIS PASSING...AFTER WHICH STORM
MOTION WILL VEER MORE STRAIGHT EASTERLY WITH THE LINE SPEEDING UP IN
ITS FORWARD PROGRESSION SOME. AN OUTSIDE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
EXISTS WITH GOOD SHEAR IN PLACE AND HIGHER INSTABILITY...AGAIN
MAINLY OVER THE SE OHIO ZONES...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD
HOWEVER. THE BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR SVR STORMS WILL REMAIN WEST AND
NORTH OF THE AREA.

TUE NIGHT AND WED...UPPER TROUGH S/W AXIS CONTINUES EAST OF THE AREA
AFTER 00Z WED WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. MAIN BATCH OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS ENDING AROUND THE 03Z TIME FRAME...AND THEN HAVE ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS BY ABOUT 06Z WED. ALSO
TRAILED A SECONDARY AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST ZONES WITH THE FRONT ITSELF AS IT ENTERS INTO THAT PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND WASHES OUT. WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD
ON WED WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE ALSO IN PLACE...CENTERED JUST TO OUR
NORTH BY 00Z THU. AS A RESULT...ONCE EARLY MORNING LOW STRATUS BURNS
OFF MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PERHAPS SOME PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BY THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON HOURS. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
POP-UP SHOWER/STORM ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE SLIGHTLY
BETTER LLVL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH MOSTLY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE
USUAL TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH
DAY...PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP FRIDAY VERSUS
THURSDAY WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE. BY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...LONG TERM OP MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA...WITH ONLY A DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF ROUGHLY SIX OR SO HOURS.
INCREASED POPS TO MID/HIGH CHANCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS SUCH.
BEYOND THAT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE EC AND OP GFS THEN DIVERGE ON
THE HANDLING OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A CLEAN SWEEP
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE EURO HANGING THE FRONT UP NEAR OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES UNDER W/SW FLOW ALOFT. DID ALLOW FOR THE COOLER AIRMASS TO
MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINS DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR
THE LOWLANDS BUT ALSO CONTINUED SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS PER LATEST EC
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST SITES THROUGH 22Z. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE MVFR UNDER LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE AT HTS...TO MOVE
OVER CRW BY 18-20Z. CONVECTION WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY ACROSS
CENTRAL WV THIS AFTERNOON.

REMOVED TSRA AND VCTS FROM TAFS AS RADAR SHOWS AREA OF PCPN TO BE
MORE STRATIFORM THAN CONVECTIVE.

CONTINUE TO EXPECT EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS DECK TO FORM THIS
EVENING AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD. LOW STRATUS
SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY MAKE VISIBILITIES TO COME DOWN AS WELL
WITH THE RECENT RAIN. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER AREAS
THAT RECEIVED RAIN.

A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR
STORMS EXPECTED.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTEND OF POST RAIN AND SUBSIDENCE OF LOW
STRATUS COULD VARY FROM SITE TO SITE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR IN DENSE EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK. IFR IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...ARJ








000
FXUS61 KRLX 311826
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
226 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROVIDE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. WEAK FRONT CROSSES
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AMPLE MOISTURE EVIDENT IN SATURATED BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...IN
COMBINATION WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEPICTED BY MODELS AS A
SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMAS AT H5...WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AREAS
OF STRATIFORM RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
WITH NO FRONTAL PASSAGE...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN
JUICY...ALLOWING FOR LOW LEVEL STRATUS TO FORM AND PERHAPS LOWER
TO THE SFC AT SOME PLACES DUE TO SUBSIDENCE.

AREAS OF RAIN MAY CONTAIN ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWER MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL WV THIS EVENING. RAIN MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL FORCING.

HAVE NO THUNDER IN THE FORECAST EXCEPT OVER SOUTHEAST OH
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH CHANCES ARE LOW.

SOME CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE BY MID MORNING MONDAY INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIURNAL CU DECK FORMS ACROSS THE AREA FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AT THE SFC...DUE TO RECENT
RAINFALL...EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
PERIODS OF SUNSHINE MONDAY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON COULD BRING HIGHS
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. ADJUSTED PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES
ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY BY THE OUTSET OF THE PERIOD 00Z
TUE...HOWEVER WILL LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS JUST A BIT LONGER
ACROSS THE NORTHERN QUARTER OR SO OF THE CWA WHERE JUST A BIT BETTER
LLVL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO RESIDE ALONG WITH A HINT OF SFC
CONVERGENCE PER LATEST NAM12 RUN. WEAKLY AMPLIFIED SW FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT WILL BACK JUST A
BIT DURING THE DAY TUE WITH THE APPROACH OF A S/W TROUGH WHICH WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AROUND 18Z TUE AND ESSENTIALLY OVERHEAD
BY 00Z WED. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA OUT OF
THE WEST AND BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL IN BY 18Z TUE AND ACROSS NW
OHIO BY 00Z WED. STILL APPEARS THAT A PRE-FRONTAL TYPE BAND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RACE OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...ENTERING INTO THE NW ZONES AROUND 15Z-18Z...NEAR AND/OR
CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER AROUND 19Z-21Z...AND ALONG/EAST OF A CKB-CRW
LINE BY 00Z WED. STRONGER STORMS AND HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD
COME ACROSS THE NW ZONES WHERE MORE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING ECHOES
EXISTS PRIOR TO THE 700MB TROUGH AXIS PASSING...AFTER WHICH STORM
MOTION WILL VEER MORE STRAIGHT EASTERLY WITH THE LINE SPEEDING UP IN
ITS FORWARD PROGRESSION SOME. AN OUTSIDE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
EXISTS WITH GOOD SHEAR IN PLACE AND HIGHER INSTABILITY...AGAIN
MAINLY OVER THE SE OHIO ZONES...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD
HOWEVER. THE BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR SVR STORMS WILL REMAIN WEST AND
NORTH OF THE AREA.

TUE NIGHT AND WED...UPPER TROUGH S/W AXIS CONTINUES EAST OF THE AREA
AFTER 00Z WED WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. MAIN BATCH OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS ENDING AROUND THE 03Z TIME FRAME...AND THEN HAVE ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS BY ABOUT 06Z WED. ALSO
TRAILED A SECONDARY AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST ZONES WITH THE FRONT ITSELF AS IT ENTERS INTO THAT PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND WASHES OUT. WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD
ON WED WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE ALSO IN PLACE...CENTERED JUST TO OUR
NORTH BY 00Z THU. AS A RESULT...ONCE EARLY MORNING LOW STRATUS BURNS
OFF MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PERHAPS SOME PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BY THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON HOURS. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
POP-UP SHOWER/STORM ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE SLIGHTLY
BETTER LLVL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH MOSTLY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE
USUAL TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH
DAY...PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP FRIDAY VERSUS
THURSDAY WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE. BY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...LONG TERM OP MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA...WITH ONLY A DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF ROUGHLY SIX OR SO HOURS.
INCREASED POPS TO MID/HIGH CHANCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS SUCH.
BEYOND THAT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE EC AND OP GFS THEN DIVERGE ON
THE HANDLING OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A CLEAN SWEEP
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE EURO HANGING THE FRONT UP NEAR OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES UNDER W/SW FLOW ALOFT. DID ALLOW FOR THE COOLER AIRMASS TO
MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINS DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR
THE LOWLANDS BUT ALSO CONTINUED SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS PER LATEST EC
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST SITES THROUGH 22Z. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE MVFR UNDER LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE AT HTS...TO MOVE
OVER CRW BY 18-20Z. CONVECTION WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY ACROSS
CENTRAL WV THIS AFTERNOON.

REMOVED TSRA AND VCTS FROM TAFS AS RADAR SHOWS AREA OF PCPN TO BE
MORE STRATIFORM THAN CONVECTIVE.

CONTINUE TO EXPECT EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS DECK TO FORM THIS
EVENING AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD. LOW STRATUS
SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY MAKE VISIBILITIES TO COME DOWN AS WELL
WITH THE RECENT RAIN. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER AREAS
THAT RECEIVED RAIN.

A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR
STORMS EXPECTED.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTEND OF POST RAIN AND SUBSIDENCE OF LOW
STRATUS COULD VARY FROM SITE TO SITE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR IN DENSE EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK. IFR IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...ARJ








000
FXUS61 KRLX 311826
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
226 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROVIDE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. WEAK FRONT CROSSES
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AMPLE MOISTURE EVIDENT IN SATURATED BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...IN
COMBINATION WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEPICTED BY MODELS AS A
SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMAS AT H5...WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AREAS
OF STRATIFORM RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
WITH NO FRONTAL PASSAGE...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN
JUICY...ALLOWING FOR LOW LEVEL STRATUS TO FORM AND PERHAPS LOWER
TO THE SFC AT SOME PLACES DUE TO SUBSIDENCE.

AREAS OF RAIN MAY CONTAIN ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWER MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL WV THIS EVENING. RAIN MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL FORCING.

HAVE NO THUNDER IN THE FORECAST EXCEPT OVER SOUTHEAST OH
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH CHANCES ARE LOW.

SOME CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE BY MID MORNING MONDAY INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIURNAL CU DECK FORMS ACROSS THE AREA FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AT THE SFC...DUE TO RECENT
RAINFALL...EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
PERIODS OF SUNSHINE MONDAY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON COULD BRING HIGHS
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. ADJUSTED PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES
ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY BY THE OUTSET OF THE PERIOD 00Z
TUE...HOWEVER WILL LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS JUST A BIT LONGER
ACROSS THE NORTHERN QUARTER OR SO OF THE CWA WHERE JUST A BIT BETTER
LLVL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO RESIDE ALONG WITH A HINT OF SFC
CONVERGENCE PER LATEST NAM12 RUN. WEAKLY AMPLIFIED SW FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT WILL BACK JUST A
BIT DURING THE DAY TUE WITH THE APPROACH OF A S/W TROUGH WHICH WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AROUND 18Z TUE AND ESSENTIALLY OVERHEAD
BY 00Z WED. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA OUT OF
THE WEST AND BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL IN BY 18Z TUE AND ACROSS NW
OHIO BY 00Z WED. STILL APPEARS THAT A PRE-FRONTAL TYPE BAND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RACE OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...ENTERING INTO THE NW ZONES AROUND 15Z-18Z...NEAR AND/OR
CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER AROUND 19Z-21Z...AND ALONG/EAST OF A CKB-CRW
LINE BY 00Z WED. STRONGER STORMS AND HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD
COME ACROSS THE NW ZONES WHERE MORE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING ECHOES
EXISTS PRIOR TO THE 700MB TROUGH AXIS PASSING...AFTER WHICH STORM
MOTION WILL VEER MORE STRAIGHT EASTERLY WITH THE LINE SPEEDING UP IN
ITS FORWARD PROGRESSION SOME. AN OUTSIDE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
EXISTS WITH GOOD SHEAR IN PLACE AND HIGHER INSTABILITY...AGAIN
MAINLY OVER THE SE OHIO ZONES...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD
HOWEVER. THE BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR SVR STORMS WILL REMAIN WEST AND
NORTH OF THE AREA.

TUE NIGHT AND WED...UPPER TROUGH S/W AXIS CONTINUES EAST OF THE AREA
AFTER 00Z WED WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. MAIN BATCH OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS ENDING AROUND THE 03Z TIME FRAME...AND THEN HAVE ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS BY ABOUT 06Z WED. ALSO
TRAILED A SECONDARY AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST ZONES WITH THE FRONT ITSELF AS IT ENTERS INTO THAT PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND WASHES OUT. WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD
ON WED WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE ALSO IN PLACE...CENTERED JUST TO OUR
NORTH BY 00Z THU. AS A RESULT...ONCE EARLY MORNING LOW STRATUS BURNS
OFF MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PERHAPS SOME PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BY THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON HOURS. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
POP-UP SHOWER/STORM ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE SLIGHTLY
BETTER LLVL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH MOSTLY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE
USUAL TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH
DAY...PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP FRIDAY VERSUS
THURSDAY WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE. BY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...LONG TERM OP MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA...WITH ONLY A DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF ROUGHLY SIX OR SO HOURS.
INCREASED POPS TO MID/HIGH CHANCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS SUCH.
BEYOND THAT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE EC AND OP GFS THEN DIVERGE ON
THE HANDLING OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A CLEAN SWEEP
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE EURO HANGING THE FRONT UP NEAR OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES UNDER W/SW FLOW ALOFT. DID ALLOW FOR THE COOLER AIRMASS TO
MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINS DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR
THE LOWLANDS BUT ALSO CONTINUED SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS PER LATEST EC
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST SITES THROUGH 22Z. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE MVFR UNDER LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE AT HTS...TO MOVE
OVER CRW BY 18-20Z. CONVECTION WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY ACROSS
CENTRAL WV THIS AFTERNOON.

REMOVED TSRA AND VCTS FROM TAFS AS RADAR SHOWS AREA OF PCPN TO BE
MORE STRATIFORM THAN CONVECTIVE.

CONTINUE TO EXPECT EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS DECK TO FORM THIS
EVENING AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD. LOW STRATUS
SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY MAKE VISIBILITIES TO COME DOWN AS WELL
WITH THE RECENT RAIN. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER AREAS
THAT RECEIVED RAIN.

A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR
STORMS EXPECTED.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTEND OF POST RAIN AND SUBSIDENCE OF LOW
STRATUS COULD VARY FROM SITE TO SITE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR IN DENSE EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK. IFR IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...ARJ








000
FXUS61 KRLX 311746
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
146 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROVIDE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. WEAK FRONT CROSSES
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AMPLE MOISTURE EVIDENT IN SATURATED BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...IN
COMBINATION WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEPICTED BY MODELS AS A
SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMAS AT H5...WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AREAS
OF STRATIFORM RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
WITH NO FRONTAL PASSAGE...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN
JUICY...ALLOWING FOR LOW LEVEL STRATUS TO FORM AND PERHAPS LOWER
TO THE SFC AT SOME PLACES DUE TO SUBSIDENCE.

AREAS OF RAIN MAY CONTAIN ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWER MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL WV THIS EVENING. RAIN MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL FORCING.

HAVE NO THUNDER IN THE FORECAST EXCEPT OVER SOUTHEAST OH
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH CHANCES ARE LOW.

SOME CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE BY MID MORNING MONDAY INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIURNAL CU DECK FORMS ACROSS THE AREA FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AT THE SFC...DUE TO RECENT
RAINFALL...EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
PERIODS OF SUNSHINE MONDAY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON COULD BRING HIGHS
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. ADJUSTED PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES
ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS AGREE OUR AREA WILL BE BETWEEN TWO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS ON
MONDAY. WHILE DYNAMICS WILL BE AT A MINIMUM...A WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE FOR A THREAT OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS
MONDAY...AND MORE SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S. WITH LOSS OF HEATING...ANY CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE
QUICKLY EARLY MONDAY EVENING. IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY PRECIP FREE
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THE FORM OF ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT AFFECT US TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE THE
UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SO HIGH POPS
PROGRESSING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT ARE IN ORDER. WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
COOL FRONT WILL LOSE DEFINITION AS IT CROSSES THE AREA...AND
GRADUALLY BE REPLACED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. HEIGHTS RISE MODESTLY BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH...BUT
MODELS STILL INDICATE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE FAR
SOUTH FOR A SHOWER OR TWO TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO STAY IN THE 80S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH
SOME DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CAN GENERALLY BE CHARACTERIZED BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH A FEW TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NO HEAT
WAVES OR ABNORMALLY COOL SPELLS IN SIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS TUE NIGHT WITH ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING SAT NIGHT...WITH
SUBSEQUENT HIGHER POPS DURING THOSE PERIODS. IN BETWEEN...THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY TO PERHAPS PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST SITES THROUGH 22Z. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE MVFR UNDER LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE AT HTS...TO MOVE
OVER CRW BY 18-20Z. CONVECTION WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY ACROSS
CENTRAL WV THIS AFTERNOON.

REMOVED TSRA AND VCTS FROM TAFS AS RADAR SHOWS AREA OF PCPN TO BE
MORE STRATIFORM THAN CONVECTIVE.

CONTINUE TO EXPECT EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS DECK TO FORM THIS
EVENING AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD. LOW STRATUS
SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY MAKE VISIBILITIES TO COME DOWN AS WELL
WITH THE RECENT RAIN. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER AREAS
THAT RECEIVED RAIN.

A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR
STORMS EXPECTED.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTEND OF POST RAIN AND SUBSIDENCE OF LOW
STRATUS COULD VARY FROM SITE TO SITE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR IN DENSE EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK. IFR IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...ARJ








000
FXUS61 KRLX 311746
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
146 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROVIDE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. WEAK FRONT CROSSES
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AMPLE MOISTURE EVIDENT IN SATURATED BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...IN
COMBINATION WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEPICTED BY MODELS AS A
SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMAS AT H5...WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AREAS
OF STRATIFORM RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
WITH NO FRONTAL PASSAGE...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN
JUICY...ALLOWING FOR LOW LEVEL STRATUS TO FORM AND PERHAPS LOWER
TO THE SFC AT SOME PLACES DUE TO SUBSIDENCE.

AREAS OF RAIN MAY CONTAIN ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWER MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL WV THIS EVENING. RAIN MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL FORCING.

HAVE NO THUNDER IN THE FORECAST EXCEPT OVER SOUTHEAST OH
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH CHANCES ARE LOW.

SOME CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE BY MID MORNING MONDAY INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIURNAL CU DECK FORMS ACROSS THE AREA FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AT THE SFC...DUE TO RECENT
RAINFALL...EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
PERIODS OF SUNSHINE MONDAY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON COULD BRING HIGHS
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. ADJUSTED PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES
ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS AGREE OUR AREA WILL BE BETWEEN TWO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS ON
MONDAY. WHILE DYNAMICS WILL BE AT A MINIMUM...A WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE FOR A THREAT OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS
MONDAY...AND MORE SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S. WITH LOSS OF HEATING...ANY CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE
QUICKLY EARLY MONDAY EVENING. IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY PRECIP FREE
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THE FORM OF ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT AFFECT US TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE THE
UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SO HIGH POPS
PROGRESSING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT ARE IN ORDER. WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
COOL FRONT WILL LOSE DEFINITION AS IT CROSSES THE AREA...AND
GRADUALLY BE REPLACED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. HEIGHTS RISE MODESTLY BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH...BUT
MODELS STILL INDICATE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE FAR
SOUTH FOR A SHOWER OR TWO TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO STAY IN THE 80S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH
SOME DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CAN GENERALLY BE CHARACTERIZED BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH A FEW TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NO HEAT
WAVES OR ABNORMALLY COOL SPELLS IN SIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS TUE NIGHT WITH ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING SAT NIGHT...WITH
SUBSEQUENT HIGHER POPS DURING THOSE PERIODS. IN BETWEEN...THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY TO PERHAPS PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST SITES THROUGH 22Z. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE MVFR UNDER LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE AT HTS...TO MOVE
OVER CRW BY 18-20Z. CONVECTION WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY ACROSS
CENTRAL WV THIS AFTERNOON.

REMOVED TSRA AND VCTS FROM TAFS AS RADAR SHOWS AREA OF PCPN TO BE
MORE STRATIFORM THAN CONVECTIVE.

CONTINUE TO EXPECT EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS DECK TO FORM THIS
EVENING AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD. LOW STRATUS
SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY MAKE VISIBILITIES TO COME DOWN AS WELL
WITH THE RECENT RAIN. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER AREAS
THAT RECEIVED RAIN.

A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR
STORMS EXPECTED.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTEND OF POST RAIN AND SUBSIDENCE OF LOW
STRATUS COULD VARY FROM SITE TO SITE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR IN DENSE EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK. IFR IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...ARJ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 311516
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1116 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROVIDE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. WEAK FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS
AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS ACCORDING WITH LATEST DOPPLER
RADAR AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. REMOVED THUNDER AT LEAST THROUGH
18Z AS THERE IS NO SIGN OF LIGHTNING UNDER AREAS OF STRATIFORM
RAIN. EMBEDDED SHOWERS COULD BECOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS CENTRAL WV. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL COULD REACH 0.5 INCHES
PER HOURS. WILL KEEP MONITORING THE RAINFALL RATES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
UPDATE...
NOW HAVE EVIDENCE OF THE STRATUS DECK SHOWING UP OVER SOUTHEAST
OHIO AND THE TRI STATE AREA WITH FEW/SCT SHOWING UP IN THE OBS
BELOW 2500FT. REWORKED THE POPS GIVEN THE RADAR TRENDS...AND
CONTINUE WITH THE QUIETER PERIOD BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OVER THE LAST 3 HOURS ARE IN THE 0.2 TO 0.3 INCH RANGE IN
THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON/18Z TIME FRAME TODAY...LEANED HEAVILY ON
THE HRRR MODEL GIVEN THAT IT HAD INITIALIZED VERY WELL. TYPICALLY
LIKE THE OUTPUT OF THIS MODEL WHEN THAT HAPPENS. ALSO...SINCE THE
NAM MATCHED UP FAIRLY WELL...DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENESIS PROGS
PROVED VALUABLE IN THE PATTERN OF THE POP CONSTRUCTION THIS MORNING.
THIS HELPED TO ADD SOME DEFINITION TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...PARTICULARLY OVER THE LOWLANDS SOUTH/EAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER.

AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE DEPARTS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH MAY STILL BE
HANGING ON IN THE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY FOR TODAY IN THE PERIODIC RAIN.
MAY NOT COME OUT OF THE 70S OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO. SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA COULD END UP WARMER THAN
THE OHIO RIVER SITES. THE MAV GUIDANCE HAS BEEN HANDS DOWN BETTER
THAN THE OTHERS AND LEANED ON THIS...BUT ALWAYS A LITTLE HESITANT
IN A DIFFERENT ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS AGREE OUR AREA WILL BE BETWEEN TWO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS ON
MONDAY. WHILE DYNAMICS WILL BE AT A MINIMUM...A WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE FOR A THREAT OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS
MONDAY...AND MORE SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S. WITH LOSS OF HEATING...ANY CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE
QUICKLY EARLY MONDAY EVENING. IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY PRECIP FREE
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THE FORM OF ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT AFFECT US TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE THE
UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SO HIGH POPS
PROGRESSING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT ARE IN ORDER. WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
COOL FRONT WILL LOSE DEFINITION AS IT CROSSES THE AREA...AND
GRADUALLY BE REPLACED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. HEIGHTS RISE MODESTLY BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH...BUT
MODELS STILL INDICATE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE FAR
SOUTH FOR A SHOWER OR TWO TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO STAY IN THE 80S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH
SOME DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CAN GENERALLY BE CHARACTERIZED BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH A FEW TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NO HEAT
WAVES OR ABNORMALLY COOL SPELLS IN SIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS TUE NIGHT WITH ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING SAT NIGHT...WITH
SUBSEQUENT HIGHER POPS DURING THOSE PERIODS. IN BETWEEN...THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY TO PERHAPS PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST SITES THROUGH 18Z. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE MVFR UNDER LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE AT HTS...TO MOVE
OVER CRW BY 18-20Z. CONVECTION WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY ACROSS
CENTRAL WV THIS AFTERNOON.


INCLUDED TSRA FOR CRW...CKB...AND BKW...AND VCTS/CB FOR THE REST
OF SITES AFTER 18Z.

EXPECT AND EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS DECK TO SET UP THIS EVENING AS
THE DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD. AS THOSE CEILINGS COME
DOWN...FEEL THE VISIBILITIES CAN COME DOWN AS WELL WITH THE RECENT
RAIN. NO LIFR FOG DUE TO LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF TSRA THIS AFTERNOON MAY
VARY. EXTEND OF POST RAIN AND SUBSIDENCE OF LOW STRATUS COULD VARY
FROM SITE TO SITE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR IN DENSE EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK. IFR IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...ARJ/26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...26








000
FXUS61 KRLX 311516
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1116 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROVIDE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. WEAK FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS
AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS ACCORDING WITH LATEST DOPPLER
RADAR AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. REMOVED THUNDER AT LEAST THROUGH
18Z AS THERE IS NO SIGN OF LIGHTNING UNDER AREAS OF STRATIFORM
RAIN. EMBEDDED SHOWERS COULD BECOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS CENTRAL WV. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL COULD REACH 0.5 INCHES
PER HOURS. WILL KEEP MONITORING THE RAINFALL RATES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
UPDATE...
NOW HAVE EVIDENCE OF THE STRATUS DECK SHOWING UP OVER SOUTHEAST
OHIO AND THE TRI STATE AREA WITH FEW/SCT SHOWING UP IN THE OBS
BELOW 2500FT. REWORKED THE POPS GIVEN THE RADAR TRENDS...AND
CONTINUE WITH THE QUIETER PERIOD BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OVER THE LAST 3 HOURS ARE IN THE 0.2 TO 0.3 INCH RANGE IN
THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON/18Z TIME FRAME TODAY...LEANED HEAVILY ON
THE HRRR MODEL GIVEN THAT IT HAD INITIALIZED VERY WELL. TYPICALLY
LIKE THE OUTPUT OF THIS MODEL WHEN THAT HAPPENS. ALSO...SINCE THE
NAM MATCHED UP FAIRLY WELL...DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENESIS PROGS
PROVED VALUABLE IN THE PATTERN OF THE POP CONSTRUCTION THIS MORNING.
THIS HELPED TO ADD SOME DEFINITION TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...PARTICULARLY OVER THE LOWLANDS SOUTH/EAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER.

AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE DEPARTS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH MAY STILL BE
HANGING ON IN THE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY FOR TODAY IN THE PERIODIC RAIN.
MAY NOT COME OUT OF THE 70S OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO. SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA COULD END UP WARMER THAN
THE OHIO RIVER SITES. THE MAV GUIDANCE HAS BEEN HANDS DOWN BETTER
THAN THE OTHERS AND LEANED ON THIS...BUT ALWAYS A LITTLE HESITANT
IN A DIFFERENT ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS AGREE OUR AREA WILL BE BETWEEN TWO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS ON
MONDAY. WHILE DYNAMICS WILL BE AT A MINIMUM...A WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE FOR A THREAT OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS
MONDAY...AND MORE SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S. WITH LOSS OF HEATING...ANY CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE
QUICKLY EARLY MONDAY EVENING. IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY PRECIP FREE
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THE FORM OF ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT AFFECT US TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE THE
UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SO HIGH POPS
PROGRESSING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT ARE IN ORDER. WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
COOL FRONT WILL LOSE DEFINITION AS IT CROSSES THE AREA...AND
GRADUALLY BE REPLACED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. HEIGHTS RISE MODESTLY BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH...BUT
MODELS STILL INDICATE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE FAR
SOUTH FOR A SHOWER OR TWO TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO STAY IN THE 80S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH
SOME DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CAN GENERALLY BE CHARACTERIZED BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH A FEW TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NO HEAT
WAVES OR ABNORMALLY COOL SPELLS IN SIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS TUE NIGHT WITH ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING SAT NIGHT...WITH
SUBSEQUENT HIGHER POPS DURING THOSE PERIODS. IN BETWEEN...THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY TO PERHAPS PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST SITES THROUGH 18Z. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE MVFR UNDER LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE AT HTS...TO MOVE
OVER CRW BY 18-20Z. CONVECTION WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY ACROSS
CENTRAL WV THIS AFTERNOON.


INCLUDED TSRA FOR CRW...CKB...AND BKW...AND VCTS/CB FOR THE REST
OF SITES AFTER 18Z.

EXPECT AND EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS DECK TO SET UP THIS EVENING AS
THE DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD. AS THOSE CEILINGS COME
DOWN...FEEL THE VISIBILITIES CAN COME DOWN AS WELL WITH THE RECENT
RAIN. NO LIFR FOG DUE TO LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF TSRA THIS AFTERNOON MAY
VARY. EXTEND OF POST RAIN AND SUBSIDENCE OF LOW STRATUS COULD VARY
FROM SITE TO SITE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR IN DENSE EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK. IFR IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...ARJ/26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...26









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