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000
FXUS61 KRLX 191019
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
519 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH SE STATES
SATURDAY MAY CLIP THE SOUTH AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RAGGED DECK OF STRATCU AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN WV...AND
PARTS OF SOUTHERN OH.  BUT THE CLOUD DECK IS THICKER OVER THE FAR
NORTH WHERE A WEAK S/W AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WERE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA AND THE EASTERN WV PANHANDLE.

SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND SOME DRYING OF
THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL ALLOW MORE WIDESPREAD BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS...AND ANY LINGERING FLURRIES IN KEKN AREA TO COME TO AN END.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TREND CONT WITH SUPPRESSION OF SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY. HAVE TIGHTENED
UP THE POP GRADIENT SIGNIFICANTLY...CONFINING POPS TO SW VA AND SE
WV...WHERE HIGH POPS WERE MAINTAINED ACROSS SW VA SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS STREAKING BAND OF WHAT SHOULD BE MAINLY -SN...WILL
QUICKLY SCOOT OFF TO THE E BY MIDDAY WITH JUST SOME FLURRIES OR
SPRINKLES ACROSS THOSE LOCATIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON. TOUGH TO
FIGURE OUT THE CLOUD COVER WITH VARYING HEIGHTS TO BASES
ANTICIPATED FOR THE REGION. SUSPECT QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS LINGERING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS S ZONES WITH BEST CHANCE OF AT LEAST BECOMING
BKN N OF I64 CORRIDOR. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FLOW BENEATH
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAY PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MIXING THE
STRATUS OUT THOUGH. INHERITED TEMPS CLOSE TO NEW GUIDANCE WITH
LITTLE TWEAKING.

S/W RIDGING WORKS IN ON SUNDAY AS WAA SLOWLY BEGINS TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO VEER AROUND TO SE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD HELP IN ERADICATING ANY LINGERING STRATUS
ALTHOUGH FLOW IS RATHER WEAK. WILL ALSO HAVE SOME WAA FROM THE S
TO HELP. UNFORTUNATELY...QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS WILL BE STREAKING
IN FROM THE W IN THE AFTERNOON...TO FILTER WHAT SUNSHINE WE MANAGE
TO GET. INHERITED TEMPS CLOSE TO NEW GUIDANCE WITH LITTLE
TWEAKING.

CIRRUS SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH STRATUS DEVELOPING ON E SLOPES
SHOULD HELP TO KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK. WILL BE WATCHING FOR UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE TO ROTATE OUT OF THE BASE OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF
OVER THE PLAINS. SUSPECT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ALONG SE
COAST AS THIS UPPER WAVE TRACKS THRU TN VALLEY INTO OUR NECK OF
THE WOODS. FEEL BULK OF HVY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL
REMAIN E OF THE CWA...CLIPPING MOUNTAIN ZONES MONDAY MORNING. THIS
IS WHERE HIGH POPS WERE CODED UP WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER MAXIMA OVER
SE OH. THINK STRENGTHENING DOWNSLOPING SE FLOW WILL KEEP PRECIP
CHANCES LOW ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. THERE WILL BE A CAD EVENT TO CONTEND
WITH AS THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER NEW
ENGLAND...ALBEIT WEAK. THIS CAD MAY BE STRENGTHENED INITIALLY AS
DRY LYR AROUND H85 MOISTENS UP MONDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT FELT
THE COOLER NAM WAS THE WAY TO GO ACROSS OUR CAD LOCATIONS...IE E
SLOPES AND GREENBRIER VALLEY. WETBULBING PROBABLY WOULD SUPPORT A
BRIEF BURST OF SN ON THE LEADING EDGE MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO FZRA AS WAA ALOFT OVERWHELMS THE AREA.
THERE COULD BE AN INCH OF SN BEFORE THIS TRANSITION WITH SOME
ICING TO WORRY ABOUT THEREAFTER...UNTIL MIDDAY. WILL INSERT A
MENTION IN HWO FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINES SHOULD CONFIDENCE INCREASE.
MOST OF THE PRECIP BECOMES CONFINED TO DEPARTING SURFACE LOW OFF
THE E COAST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH JUST A FEW -SHRA
EXPECTED...MAINLY ACROSS SE OH. TRIED TO CODE UP SOME WARMER TEMPS
E OF I79 CORRIDOR TO W SLOPES AIDED BY SOME DOWNSLOPING...WHERE
SOME MID 50S POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE GENERALLY UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE. CAD LOCATIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 30S HOWEVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
MONDAY...CREATING PRECIPITATION...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES...COULD BE A
PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS MOUNTAIN ZONES
AND NORTHERN WV. THIS LOW WILL EXIT OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY...TO
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN U.S TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY...AHEAD OF A LOW AND UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW...PW
VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND AN INCH WITH THE SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THIS TIMING...COULD SEE
FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY CHRISTMAS EVE...WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN A SNOWIER/MORE MIXED PRECIP FORECAST THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED. STILL LOOKING LIKE SOME SORT OF WINTER HEADLINES MAY BE
NECESSARY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WITH SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES
IN THE FORECAST...WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY AN MVFR CLOUD DECK IN PLACE THIS MORNING WITH CIGS
TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK SFC GRADIENTS
IN PLACE WITH ONLY A LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST PUFF. EXPECT SOME
RETURN TO MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS BL DECOUPLES AND MIXING
HEIGHTS DROP. DO NOT EXPECT CLOUD COVERAGE TO BE NEARLY AS
WIDESPREAD AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS...AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
HAVE SCOURED OUT SOME. LATE IN THE PERIOD...BRINGING IN MID LEVEL
DECK AS SOUTHERN STREAM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING TRANSITION TO VFR TODAY AND
REFORMATION OF MVFR CIGS TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EST 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT WINTRY MIX OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BEING IFR TO MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT MONDAY WITH A WINTRY MIX.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/30
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KMC









000
FXUS61 KRLX 191019
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
519 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH SE STATES
SATURDAY MAY CLIP THE SOUTH AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RAGGED DECK OF STRATCU AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN WV...AND
PARTS OF SOUTHERN OH.  BUT THE CLOUD DECK IS THICKER OVER THE FAR
NORTH WHERE A WEAK S/W AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WERE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA AND THE EASTERN WV PANHANDLE.

SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND SOME DRYING OF
THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL ALLOW MORE WIDESPREAD BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS...AND ANY LINGERING FLURRIES IN KEKN AREA TO COME TO AN END.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TREND CONT WITH SUPPRESSION OF SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY. HAVE TIGHTENED
UP THE POP GRADIENT SIGNIFICANTLY...CONFINING POPS TO SW VA AND SE
WV...WHERE HIGH POPS WERE MAINTAINED ACROSS SW VA SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS STREAKING BAND OF WHAT SHOULD BE MAINLY -SN...WILL
QUICKLY SCOOT OFF TO THE E BY MIDDAY WITH JUST SOME FLURRIES OR
SPRINKLES ACROSS THOSE LOCATIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON. TOUGH TO
FIGURE OUT THE CLOUD COVER WITH VARYING HEIGHTS TO BASES
ANTICIPATED FOR THE REGION. SUSPECT QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS LINGERING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS S ZONES WITH BEST CHANCE OF AT LEAST BECOMING
BKN N OF I64 CORRIDOR. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FLOW BENEATH
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAY PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MIXING THE
STRATUS OUT THOUGH. INHERITED TEMPS CLOSE TO NEW GUIDANCE WITH
LITTLE TWEAKING.

S/W RIDGING WORKS IN ON SUNDAY AS WAA SLOWLY BEGINS TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO VEER AROUND TO SE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD HELP IN ERADICATING ANY LINGERING STRATUS
ALTHOUGH FLOW IS RATHER WEAK. WILL ALSO HAVE SOME WAA FROM THE S
TO HELP. UNFORTUNATELY...QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS WILL BE STREAKING
IN FROM THE W IN THE AFTERNOON...TO FILTER WHAT SUNSHINE WE MANAGE
TO GET. INHERITED TEMPS CLOSE TO NEW GUIDANCE WITH LITTLE
TWEAKING.

CIRRUS SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH STRATUS DEVELOPING ON E SLOPES
SHOULD HELP TO KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK. WILL BE WATCHING FOR UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE TO ROTATE OUT OF THE BASE OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF
OVER THE PLAINS. SUSPECT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ALONG SE
COAST AS THIS UPPER WAVE TRACKS THRU TN VALLEY INTO OUR NECK OF
THE WOODS. FEEL BULK OF HVY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL
REMAIN E OF THE CWA...CLIPPING MOUNTAIN ZONES MONDAY MORNING. THIS
IS WHERE HIGH POPS WERE CODED UP WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER MAXIMA OVER
SE OH. THINK STRENGTHENING DOWNSLOPING SE FLOW WILL KEEP PRECIP
CHANCES LOW ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. THERE WILL BE A CAD EVENT TO CONTEND
WITH AS THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER NEW
ENGLAND...ALBEIT WEAK. THIS CAD MAY BE STRENGTHENED INITIALLY AS
DRY LYR AROUND H85 MOISTENS UP MONDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT FELT
THE COOLER NAM WAS THE WAY TO GO ACROSS OUR CAD LOCATIONS...IE E
SLOPES AND GREENBRIER VALLEY. WETBULBING PROBABLY WOULD SUPPORT A
BRIEF BURST OF SN ON THE LEADING EDGE MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO FZRA AS WAA ALOFT OVERWHELMS THE AREA.
THERE COULD BE AN INCH OF SN BEFORE THIS TRANSITION WITH SOME
ICING TO WORRY ABOUT THEREAFTER...UNTIL MIDDAY. WILL INSERT A
MENTION IN HWO FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINES SHOULD CONFIDENCE INCREASE.
MOST OF THE PRECIP BECOMES CONFINED TO DEPARTING SURFACE LOW OFF
THE E COAST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH JUST A FEW -SHRA
EXPECTED...MAINLY ACROSS SE OH. TRIED TO CODE UP SOME WARMER TEMPS
E OF I79 CORRIDOR TO W SLOPES AIDED BY SOME DOWNSLOPING...WHERE
SOME MID 50S POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE GENERALLY UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE. CAD LOCATIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 30S HOWEVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
MONDAY...CREATING PRECIPITATION...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES...COULD BE A
PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS MOUNTAIN ZONES
AND NORTHERN WV. THIS LOW WILL EXIT OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY...TO
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN U.S TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY...AHEAD OF A LOW AND UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW...PW
VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND AN INCH WITH THE SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THIS TIMING...COULD SEE
FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY CHRISTMAS EVE...WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN A SNOWIER/MORE MIXED PRECIP FORECAST THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED. STILL LOOKING LIKE SOME SORT OF WINTER HEADLINES MAY BE
NECESSARY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WITH SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES
IN THE FORECAST...WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY AN MVFR CLOUD DECK IN PLACE THIS MORNING WITH CIGS
TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK SFC GRADIENTS
IN PLACE WITH ONLY A LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST PUFF. EXPECT SOME
RETURN TO MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS BL DECOUPLES AND MIXING
HEIGHTS DROP. DO NOT EXPECT CLOUD COVERAGE TO BE NEARLY AS
WIDESPREAD AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS...AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
HAVE SCOURED OUT SOME. LATE IN THE PERIOD...BRINGING IN MID LEVEL
DECK AS SOUTHERN STREAM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING TRANSITION TO VFR TODAY AND
REFORMATION OF MVFR CIGS TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EST 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT WINTRY MIX OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BEING IFR TO MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT MONDAY WITH A WINTRY MIX.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/30
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KMC








000
FXUS61 KRLX 191019
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
519 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH SE STATES
SATURDAY MAY CLIP THE SOUTH AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RAGGED DECK OF STRATCU AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN WV...AND
PARTS OF SOUTHERN OH.  BUT THE CLOUD DECK IS THICKER OVER THE FAR
NORTH WHERE A WEAK S/W AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WERE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA AND THE EASTERN WV PANHANDLE.

SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND SOME DRYING OF
THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL ALLOW MORE WIDESPREAD BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS...AND ANY LINGERING FLURRIES IN KEKN AREA TO COME TO AN END.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TREND CONT WITH SUPPRESSION OF SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY. HAVE TIGHTENED
UP THE POP GRADIENT SIGNIFICANTLY...CONFINING POPS TO SW VA AND SE
WV...WHERE HIGH POPS WERE MAINTAINED ACROSS SW VA SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS STREAKING BAND OF WHAT SHOULD BE MAINLY -SN...WILL
QUICKLY SCOOT OFF TO THE E BY MIDDAY WITH JUST SOME FLURRIES OR
SPRINKLES ACROSS THOSE LOCATIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON. TOUGH TO
FIGURE OUT THE CLOUD COVER WITH VARYING HEIGHTS TO BASES
ANTICIPATED FOR THE REGION. SUSPECT QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS LINGERING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS S ZONES WITH BEST CHANCE OF AT LEAST BECOMING
BKN N OF I64 CORRIDOR. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FLOW BENEATH
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAY PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MIXING THE
STRATUS OUT THOUGH. INHERITED TEMPS CLOSE TO NEW GUIDANCE WITH
LITTLE TWEAKING.

S/W RIDGING WORKS IN ON SUNDAY AS WAA SLOWLY BEGINS TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO VEER AROUND TO SE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD HELP IN ERADICATING ANY LINGERING STRATUS
ALTHOUGH FLOW IS RATHER WEAK. WILL ALSO HAVE SOME WAA FROM THE S
TO HELP. UNFORTUNATELY...QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS WILL BE STREAKING
IN FROM THE W IN THE AFTERNOON...TO FILTER WHAT SUNSHINE WE MANAGE
TO GET. INHERITED TEMPS CLOSE TO NEW GUIDANCE WITH LITTLE
TWEAKING.

CIRRUS SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH STRATUS DEVELOPING ON E SLOPES
SHOULD HELP TO KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK. WILL BE WATCHING FOR UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE TO ROTATE OUT OF THE BASE OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF
OVER THE PLAINS. SUSPECT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ALONG SE
COAST AS THIS UPPER WAVE TRACKS THRU TN VALLEY INTO OUR NECK OF
THE WOODS. FEEL BULK OF HVY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL
REMAIN E OF THE CWA...CLIPPING MOUNTAIN ZONES MONDAY MORNING. THIS
IS WHERE HIGH POPS WERE CODED UP WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER MAXIMA OVER
SE OH. THINK STRENGTHENING DOWNSLOPING SE FLOW WILL KEEP PRECIP
CHANCES LOW ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. THERE WILL BE A CAD EVENT TO CONTEND
WITH AS THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER NEW
ENGLAND...ALBEIT WEAK. THIS CAD MAY BE STRENGTHENED INITIALLY AS
DRY LYR AROUND H85 MOISTENS UP MONDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT FELT
THE COOLER NAM WAS THE WAY TO GO ACROSS OUR CAD LOCATIONS...IE E
SLOPES AND GREENBRIER VALLEY. WETBULBING PROBABLY WOULD SUPPORT A
BRIEF BURST OF SN ON THE LEADING EDGE MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO FZRA AS WAA ALOFT OVERWHELMS THE AREA.
THERE COULD BE AN INCH OF SN BEFORE THIS TRANSITION WITH SOME
ICING TO WORRY ABOUT THEREAFTER...UNTIL MIDDAY. WILL INSERT A
MENTION IN HWO FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINES SHOULD CONFIDENCE INCREASE.
MOST OF THE PRECIP BECOMES CONFINED TO DEPARTING SURFACE LOW OFF
THE E COAST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH JUST A FEW -SHRA
EXPECTED...MAINLY ACROSS SE OH. TRIED TO CODE UP SOME WARMER TEMPS
E OF I79 CORRIDOR TO W SLOPES AIDED BY SOME DOWNSLOPING...WHERE
SOME MID 50S POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE GENERALLY UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE. CAD LOCATIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 30S HOWEVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
MONDAY...CREATING PRECIPITATION...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES...COULD BE A
PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS MOUNTAIN ZONES
AND NORTHERN WV. THIS LOW WILL EXIT OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY...TO
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN U.S TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY...AHEAD OF A LOW AND UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW...PW
VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND AN INCH WITH THE SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THIS TIMING...COULD SEE
FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY CHRISTMAS EVE...WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN A SNOWIER/MORE MIXED PRECIP FORECAST THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED. STILL LOOKING LIKE SOME SORT OF WINTER HEADLINES MAY BE
NECESSARY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WITH SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES
IN THE FORECAST...WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY AN MVFR CLOUD DECK IN PLACE THIS MORNING WITH CIGS
TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK SFC GRADIENTS
IN PLACE WITH ONLY A LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST PUFF. EXPECT SOME
RETURN TO MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS BL DECOUPLES AND MIXING
HEIGHTS DROP. DO NOT EXPECT CLOUD COVERAGE TO BE NEARLY AS
WIDESPREAD AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS...AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
HAVE SCOURED OUT SOME. LATE IN THE PERIOD...BRINGING IN MID LEVEL
DECK AS SOUTHERN STREAM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING TRANSITION TO VFR TODAY AND
REFORMATION OF MVFR CIGS TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EST 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT WINTRY MIX OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BEING IFR TO MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT MONDAY WITH A WINTRY MIX.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/30
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KMC









000
FXUS61 KRLX 191019
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
519 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH SE STATES
SATURDAY MAY CLIP THE SOUTH AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RAGGED DECK OF STRATCU AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN WV...AND
PARTS OF SOUTHERN OH.  BUT THE CLOUD DECK IS THICKER OVER THE FAR
NORTH WHERE A WEAK S/W AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WERE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA AND THE EASTERN WV PANHANDLE.

SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND SOME DRYING OF
THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL ALLOW MORE WIDESPREAD BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS...AND ANY LINGERING FLURRIES IN KEKN AREA TO COME TO AN END.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TREND CONT WITH SUPPRESSION OF SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY. HAVE TIGHTENED
UP THE POP GRADIENT SIGNIFICANTLY...CONFINING POPS TO SW VA AND SE
WV...WHERE HIGH POPS WERE MAINTAINED ACROSS SW VA SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS STREAKING BAND OF WHAT SHOULD BE MAINLY -SN...WILL
QUICKLY SCOOT OFF TO THE E BY MIDDAY WITH JUST SOME FLURRIES OR
SPRINKLES ACROSS THOSE LOCATIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON. TOUGH TO
FIGURE OUT THE CLOUD COVER WITH VARYING HEIGHTS TO BASES
ANTICIPATED FOR THE REGION. SUSPECT QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS LINGERING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS S ZONES WITH BEST CHANCE OF AT LEAST BECOMING
BKN N OF I64 CORRIDOR. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FLOW BENEATH
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAY PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MIXING THE
STRATUS OUT THOUGH. INHERITED TEMPS CLOSE TO NEW GUIDANCE WITH
LITTLE TWEAKING.

S/W RIDGING WORKS IN ON SUNDAY AS WAA SLOWLY BEGINS TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO VEER AROUND TO SE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD HELP IN ERADICATING ANY LINGERING STRATUS
ALTHOUGH FLOW IS RATHER WEAK. WILL ALSO HAVE SOME WAA FROM THE S
TO HELP. UNFORTUNATELY...QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS WILL BE STREAKING
IN FROM THE W IN THE AFTERNOON...TO FILTER WHAT SUNSHINE WE MANAGE
TO GET. INHERITED TEMPS CLOSE TO NEW GUIDANCE WITH LITTLE
TWEAKING.

CIRRUS SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH STRATUS DEVELOPING ON E SLOPES
SHOULD HELP TO KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK. WILL BE WATCHING FOR UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE TO ROTATE OUT OF THE BASE OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF
OVER THE PLAINS. SUSPECT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ALONG SE
COAST AS THIS UPPER WAVE TRACKS THRU TN VALLEY INTO OUR NECK OF
THE WOODS. FEEL BULK OF HVY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL
REMAIN E OF THE CWA...CLIPPING MOUNTAIN ZONES MONDAY MORNING. THIS
IS WHERE HIGH POPS WERE CODED UP WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER MAXIMA OVER
SE OH. THINK STRENGTHENING DOWNSLOPING SE FLOW WILL KEEP PRECIP
CHANCES LOW ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. THERE WILL BE A CAD EVENT TO CONTEND
WITH AS THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER NEW
ENGLAND...ALBEIT WEAK. THIS CAD MAY BE STRENGTHENED INITIALLY AS
DRY LYR AROUND H85 MOISTENS UP MONDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT FELT
THE COOLER NAM WAS THE WAY TO GO ACROSS OUR CAD LOCATIONS...IE E
SLOPES AND GREENBRIER VALLEY. WETBULBING PROBABLY WOULD SUPPORT A
BRIEF BURST OF SN ON THE LEADING EDGE MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO FZRA AS WAA ALOFT OVERWHELMS THE AREA.
THERE COULD BE AN INCH OF SN BEFORE THIS TRANSITION WITH SOME
ICING TO WORRY ABOUT THEREAFTER...UNTIL MIDDAY. WILL INSERT A
MENTION IN HWO FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINES SHOULD CONFIDENCE INCREASE.
MOST OF THE PRECIP BECOMES CONFINED TO DEPARTING SURFACE LOW OFF
THE E COAST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH JUST A FEW -SHRA
EXPECTED...MAINLY ACROSS SE OH. TRIED TO CODE UP SOME WARMER TEMPS
E OF I79 CORRIDOR TO W SLOPES AIDED BY SOME DOWNSLOPING...WHERE
SOME MID 50S POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE GENERALLY UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE. CAD LOCATIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 30S HOWEVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
MONDAY...CREATING PRECIPITATION...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES...COULD BE A
PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS MOUNTAIN ZONES
AND NORTHERN WV. THIS LOW WILL EXIT OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY...TO
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN U.S TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY...AHEAD OF A LOW AND UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW...PW
VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND AN INCH WITH THE SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THIS TIMING...COULD SEE
FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY CHRISTMAS EVE...WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN A SNOWIER/MORE MIXED PRECIP FORECAST THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED. STILL LOOKING LIKE SOME SORT OF WINTER HEADLINES MAY BE
NECESSARY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WITH SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES
IN THE FORECAST...WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY AN MVFR CLOUD DECK IN PLACE THIS MORNING WITH CIGS
TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK SFC GRADIENTS
IN PLACE WITH ONLY A LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST PUFF. EXPECT SOME
RETURN TO MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS BL DECOUPLES AND MIXING
HEIGHTS DROP. DO NOT EXPECT CLOUD COVERAGE TO BE NEARLY AS
WIDESPREAD AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS...AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
HAVE SCOURED OUT SOME. LATE IN THE PERIOD...BRINGING IN MID LEVEL
DECK AS SOUTHERN STREAM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING TRANSITION TO VFR TODAY AND
REFORMATION OF MVFR CIGS TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EST 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT WINTRY MIX OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BEING IFR TO MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT MONDAY WITH A WINTRY MIX.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/30
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KMC








000
FXUS61 KRLX 190854
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
354 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH SE STATES
SATURDAY MAY CLIP THE SOUTH AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RAGGED DECK OF STRATCU AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN WV...AND
PARTS OF SOUTHERN OH.  BUT THE CLOUD DECK IS THICKER OVER THE FAR
NORTH WHERE A WEAK S/W AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WERE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA AND THE EASTERN WV PANHANDLE.

SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND SOME DRYING OF
THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL ALLOW MORE WIDESPREAD BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS...AND ANY LINGERING FLURRIES IN KEKN AREA TO COME TO AN END.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TREND CONT WITH SUPPRESSION OF SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY. HAVE TIGHTENED
UP THE POP GRADIENT SIGNIFICANTLY...CONFINING POPS TO SW VA AND SE
WV...WHERE HIGH POPS WERE MAINTAINED ACROSS SW VA SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS STREAKING BAND OF WHAT SHOULD BE MAINLY -SN...WILL
QUICKLY SCOOT OFF TO THE E BY MIDDAY WITH JUST SOME FLURRIES OR
SPRINKLES ACROSS THOSE LOCATIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON. TOUGH TO
FIGURE OUT THE CLOUD COVER WITH VARYING HEIGHTS TO BASES
ANTICIPATED FOR THE REGION. SUSPECT QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS LINGERING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS S ZONES WITH BEST CHANCE OF AT LEAST BECOMING
BKN N OF I64 CORRIDOR. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FLOW BENEATH
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAY PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MIXING THE
STRATUS OUT THOUGH. INHERITED TEMPS CLOSE TO NEW GUIDANCE WITH
LITTLE TWEAKING.

S/W RIDGING WORKS IN ON SUNDAY AS WAA SLOWLY BEGINS TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO VEER AROUND TO SE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD HELP IN ERADICATING ANY LINGERING STRATUS
ALTHOUGH FLOW IS RATHER WEAK. WILL ALSO HAVE SOME WAA FROM THE S
TO HELP. UNFORTUNATELY...QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS WILL BE STREAKING
IN FROM THE W IN THE AFTERNOON...TO FILTER WHAT SUNSHINE WE MANAGE
TO GET. INHERITED TEMPS CLOSE TO NEW GUIDANCE WITH LITTLE
TWEAKING.

CIRRUS SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH STRATUS DEVELOPING ON E SLOPES
SHOULD HELP TO KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK. WILL BE WATCHING FOR UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE TO ROTATE OUT OF THE BASE OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF
OVER THE PLAINS. SUSPECT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ALONG SE
COAST AS THIS UPPER WAVE TRACKS THRU TN VALLEY INTO OUR NECK OF
THE WOODS. FEEL BULK OF HVY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL
REMAIN E OF THE CWA...CLIPPING MOUNTAIN ZONES MONDAY MORNING. THIS
IS WHERE HIGH POPS WERE CODED UP WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER MAXIMA OVER
SE OH. THINK STRENGTHENING DOWNSLOPING SE FLOW WILL KEEP PRECIP
CHANCES LOW ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. THERE WILL BE A CAD EVENT TO CONTEND
WITH AS THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER NEW
ENGLAND...ALBEIT WEAK. THIS CAD MAY BE STRENGTHENED INITIALLY AS
DRY LYR AROUND H85 MOISTENS UP MONDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT FELT
THE COOLER NAM WAS THE WAY TO GO ACROSS OUR CAD LOCATIONS...IE E
SLOPES AND GREENBRIER VALLEY. WETBULBING PROBABLY WOULD SUPPORT A
BRIEF BURST OF SN ON THE LEADING EDGE MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO FZRA AS WAA ALOFT OVERWHELMS THE AREA.
THERE COULD BE AN INCH OF SN BEFORE THIS TRANSITION WITH SOME
ICING TO WORRY ABOUT THEREAFTER...UNTIL MIDDAY. WILL INSERT A
MENTION IN HWO FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINES SHOULD CONFIDENCE INCREASE.
MOST OF THE PRECIP BECOMES CONFINED TO DEPARTING SURFACE LOW OFF
THE E COAST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH JUST A FEW -SHRA
EXPECTED...MAINLY ACROSS SE OH. TRIED TO CODE UP SOME WARMER TEMPS
E OF I79 CORRIDOR TO W SLOPES AIDED BY SOME DOWNSLOPING...WHERE
SOME MID 50S POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE GENERALLY UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE. CAD LOCATIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 30S HOWEVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
MONDAY...CREATING PRECIPITATION...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES...COULD BE A
PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS MOUNTAIN ZONES
AND NORTHERN WV. THIS LOW WILL EXIT OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY...TO
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN U.S TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY...AHEAD OF A LOW AND UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW...PW
VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND AN INCH WITH THE SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THIS TIMING...COULD SEE
FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY CHRISTMAS EVE...WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN A SNOWIER/MORE MIXED PRECIP FORECAST THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED. STILL LOOKING LIKE SOME SORT OF WINTER HEADLINES MAY BE
NECESSARY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WITH SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES
IN THE FORECAST...WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL SEEING SOME RADAR RETURNS WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...WITH MAINLY AN MVFR CLOUD DECK IN
PLACE. SOME VFR WAS NOTED ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EXPECT MVFR DECK TO
REFORM ACROSS THE SOUTH TONIGHT. HAVE CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT TO VFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. WEAK SFC GRADIENTS IN PLACE ONLY A
LIGHT SOUTHWEST PUFF.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RESURGENCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS
SOUTH MAY VARY...MAY ALSO HAVE SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
FARTHER SOUTH...AND EVEN A DROP INTO MVFR VIS IN SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SITES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         FRI 12/19/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT WINTRY MIX OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/30
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KMC









000
FXUS61 KRLX 190854
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
354 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH SE STATES
SATURDAY MAY CLIP THE SOUTH AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RAGGED DECK OF STRATCU AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN WV...AND
PARTS OF SOUTHERN OH.  BUT THE CLOUD DECK IS THICKER OVER THE FAR
NORTH WHERE A WEAK S/W AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WERE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA AND THE EASTERN WV PANHANDLE.

SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND SOME DRYING OF
THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL ALLOW MORE WIDESPREAD BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS...AND ANY LINGERING FLURRIES IN KEKN AREA TO COME TO AN END.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TREND CONT WITH SUPPRESSION OF SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY. HAVE TIGHTENED
UP THE POP GRADIENT SIGNIFICANTLY...CONFINING POPS TO SW VA AND SE
WV...WHERE HIGH POPS WERE MAINTAINED ACROSS SW VA SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS STREAKING BAND OF WHAT SHOULD BE MAINLY -SN...WILL
QUICKLY SCOOT OFF TO THE E BY MIDDAY WITH JUST SOME FLURRIES OR
SPRINKLES ACROSS THOSE LOCATIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON. TOUGH TO
FIGURE OUT THE CLOUD COVER WITH VARYING HEIGHTS TO BASES
ANTICIPATED FOR THE REGION. SUSPECT QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS LINGERING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS S ZONES WITH BEST CHANCE OF AT LEAST BECOMING
BKN N OF I64 CORRIDOR. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FLOW BENEATH
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAY PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MIXING THE
STRATUS OUT THOUGH. INHERITED TEMPS CLOSE TO NEW GUIDANCE WITH
LITTLE TWEAKING.

S/W RIDGING WORKS IN ON SUNDAY AS WAA SLOWLY BEGINS TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO VEER AROUND TO SE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD HELP IN ERADICATING ANY LINGERING STRATUS
ALTHOUGH FLOW IS RATHER WEAK. WILL ALSO HAVE SOME WAA FROM THE S
TO HELP. UNFORTUNATELY...QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS WILL BE STREAKING
IN FROM THE W IN THE AFTERNOON...TO FILTER WHAT SUNSHINE WE MANAGE
TO GET. INHERITED TEMPS CLOSE TO NEW GUIDANCE WITH LITTLE
TWEAKING.

CIRRUS SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH STRATUS DEVELOPING ON E SLOPES
SHOULD HELP TO KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK. WILL BE WATCHING FOR UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE TO ROTATE OUT OF THE BASE OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF
OVER THE PLAINS. SUSPECT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ALONG SE
COAST AS THIS UPPER WAVE TRACKS THRU TN VALLEY INTO OUR NECK OF
THE WOODS. FEEL BULK OF HVY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL
REMAIN E OF THE CWA...CLIPPING MOUNTAIN ZONES MONDAY MORNING. THIS
IS WHERE HIGH POPS WERE CODED UP WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER MAXIMA OVER
SE OH. THINK STRENGTHENING DOWNSLOPING SE FLOW WILL KEEP PRECIP
CHANCES LOW ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. THERE WILL BE A CAD EVENT TO CONTEND
WITH AS THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER NEW
ENGLAND...ALBEIT WEAK. THIS CAD MAY BE STRENGTHENED INITIALLY AS
DRY LYR AROUND H85 MOISTENS UP MONDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT FELT
THE COOLER NAM WAS THE WAY TO GO ACROSS OUR CAD LOCATIONS...IE E
SLOPES AND GREENBRIER VALLEY. WETBULBING PROBABLY WOULD SUPPORT A
BRIEF BURST OF SN ON THE LEADING EDGE MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO FZRA AS WAA ALOFT OVERWHELMS THE AREA.
THERE COULD BE AN INCH OF SN BEFORE THIS TRANSITION WITH SOME
ICING TO WORRY ABOUT THEREAFTER...UNTIL MIDDAY. WILL INSERT A
MENTION IN HWO FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINES SHOULD CONFIDENCE INCREASE.
MOST OF THE PRECIP BECOMES CONFINED TO DEPARTING SURFACE LOW OFF
THE E COAST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH JUST A FEW -SHRA
EXPECTED...MAINLY ACROSS SE OH. TRIED TO CODE UP SOME WARMER TEMPS
E OF I79 CORRIDOR TO W SLOPES AIDED BY SOME DOWNSLOPING...WHERE
SOME MID 50S POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE GENERALLY UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE. CAD LOCATIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 30S HOWEVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
MONDAY...CREATING PRECIPITATION...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES...COULD BE A
PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS MOUNTAIN ZONES
AND NORTHERN WV. THIS LOW WILL EXIT OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY...TO
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN U.S TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY...AHEAD OF A LOW AND UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW...PW
VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND AN INCH WITH THE SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THIS TIMING...COULD SEE
FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY CHRISTMAS EVE...WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN A SNOWIER/MORE MIXED PRECIP FORECAST THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED. STILL LOOKING LIKE SOME SORT OF WINTER HEADLINES MAY BE
NECESSARY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WITH SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES
IN THE FORECAST...WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL SEEING SOME RADAR RETURNS WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...WITH MAINLY AN MVFR CLOUD DECK IN
PLACE. SOME VFR WAS NOTED ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EXPECT MVFR DECK TO
REFORM ACROSS THE SOUTH TONIGHT. HAVE CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT TO VFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. WEAK SFC GRADIENTS IN PLACE ONLY A
LIGHT SOUTHWEST PUFF.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RESURGENCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS
SOUTH MAY VARY...MAY ALSO HAVE SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
FARTHER SOUTH...AND EVEN A DROP INTO MVFR VIS IN SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SITES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         FRI 12/19/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT WINTRY MIX OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/30
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KMC









000
FXUS61 KRLX 190854
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
354 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH SE STATES
SATURDAY MAY CLIP THE SOUTH AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RAGGED DECK OF STRATCU AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN WV...AND
PARTS OF SOUTHERN OH.  BUT THE CLOUD DECK IS THICKER OVER THE FAR
NORTH WHERE A WEAK S/W AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WERE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA AND THE EASTERN WV PANHANDLE.

SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND SOME DRYING OF
THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL ALLOW MORE WIDESPREAD BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS...AND ANY LINGERING FLURRIES IN KEKN AREA TO COME TO AN END.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TREND CONT WITH SUPPRESSION OF SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY. HAVE TIGHTENED
UP THE POP GRADIENT SIGNIFICANTLY...CONFINING POPS TO SW VA AND SE
WV...WHERE HIGH POPS WERE MAINTAINED ACROSS SW VA SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS STREAKING BAND OF WHAT SHOULD BE MAINLY -SN...WILL
QUICKLY SCOOT OFF TO THE E BY MIDDAY WITH JUST SOME FLURRIES OR
SPRINKLES ACROSS THOSE LOCATIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON. TOUGH TO
FIGURE OUT THE CLOUD COVER WITH VARYING HEIGHTS TO BASES
ANTICIPATED FOR THE REGION. SUSPECT QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS LINGERING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS S ZONES WITH BEST CHANCE OF AT LEAST BECOMING
BKN N OF I64 CORRIDOR. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FLOW BENEATH
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAY PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MIXING THE
STRATUS OUT THOUGH. INHERITED TEMPS CLOSE TO NEW GUIDANCE WITH
LITTLE TWEAKING.

S/W RIDGING WORKS IN ON SUNDAY AS WAA SLOWLY BEGINS TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO VEER AROUND TO SE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD HELP IN ERADICATING ANY LINGERING STRATUS
ALTHOUGH FLOW IS RATHER WEAK. WILL ALSO HAVE SOME WAA FROM THE S
TO HELP. UNFORTUNATELY...QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS WILL BE STREAKING
IN FROM THE W IN THE AFTERNOON...TO FILTER WHAT SUNSHINE WE MANAGE
TO GET. INHERITED TEMPS CLOSE TO NEW GUIDANCE WITH LITTLE
TWEAKING.

CIRRUS SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH STRATUS DEVELOPING ON E SLOPES
SHOULD HELP TO KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK. WILL BE WATCHING FOR UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE TO ROTATE OUT OF THE BASE OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF
OVER THE PLAINS. SUSPECT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ALONG SE
COAST AS THIS UPPER WAVE TRACKS THRU TN VALLEY INTO OUR NECK OF
THE WOODS. FEEL BULK OF HVY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL
REMAIN E OF THE CWA...CLIPPING MOUNTAIN ZONES MONDAY MORNING. THIS
IS WHERE HIGH POPS WERE CODED UP WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER MAXIMA OVER
SE OH. THINK STRENGTHENING DOWNSLOPING SE FLOW WILL KEEP PRECIP
CHANCES LOW ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. THERE WILL BE A CAD EVENT TO CONTEND
WITH AS THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER NEW
ENGLAND...ALBEIT WEAK. THIS CAD MAY BE STRENGTHENED INITIALLY AS
DRY LYR AROUND H85 MOISTENS UP MONDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT FELT
THE COOLER NAM WAS THE WAY TO GO ACROSS OUR CAD LOCATIONS...IE E
SLOPES AND GREENBRIER VALLEY. WETBULBING PROBABLY WOULD SUPPORT A
BRIEF BURST OF SN ON THE LEADING EDGE MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO FZRA AS WAA ALOFT OVERWHELMS THE AREA.
THERE COULD BE AN INCH OF SN BEFORE THIS TRANSITION WITH SOME
ICING TO WORRY ABOUT THEREAFTER...UNTIL MIDDAY. WILL INSERT A
MENTION IN HWO FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINES SHOULD CONFIDENCE INCREASE.
MOST OF THE PRECIP BECOMES CONFINED TO DEPARTING SURFACE LOW OFF
THE E COAST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH JUST A FEW -SHRA
EXPECTED...MAINLY ACROSS SE OH. TRIED TO CODE UP SOME WARMER TEMPS
E OF I79 CORRIDOR TO W SLOPES AIDED BY SOME DOWNSLOPING...WHERE
SOME MID 50S POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE GENERALLY UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE. CAD LOCATIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 30S HOWEVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
MONDAY...CREATING PRECIPITATION...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES...COULD BE A
PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS MOUNTAIN ZONES
AND NORTHERN WV. THIS LOW WILL EXIT OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY...TO
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN U.S TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY...AHEAD OF A LOW AND UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW...PW
VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND AN INCH WITH THE SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THIS TIMING...COULD SEE
FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY CHRISTMAS EVE...WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN A SNOWIER/MORE MIXED PRECIP FORECAST THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED. STILL LOOKING LIKE SOME SORT OF WINTER HEADLINES MAY BE
NECESSARY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WITH SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES
IN THE FORECAST...WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL SEEING SOME RADAR RETURNS WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...WITH MAINLY AN MVFR CLOUD DECK IN
PLACE. SOME VFR WAS NOTED ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EXPECT MVFR DECK TO
REFORM ACROSS THE SOUTH TONIGHT. HAVE CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT TO VFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. WEAK SFC GRADIENTS IN PLACE ONLY A
LIGHT SOUTHWEST PUFF.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RESURGENCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS
SOUTH MAY VARY...MAY ALSO HAVE SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
FARTHER SOUTH...AND EVEN A DROP INTO MVFR VIS IN SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SITES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         FRI 12/19/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT WINTRY MIX OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/30
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KMC









000
FXUS61 KRLX 190854
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
354 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH SE STATES
SATURDAY MAY CLIP THE SOUTH AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RAGGED DECK OF STRATCU AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN WV...AND
PARTS OF SOUTHERN OH.  BUT THE CLOUD DECK IS THICKER OVER THE FAR
NORTH WHERE A WEAK S/W AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WERE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA AND THE EASTERN WV PANHANDLE.

SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND SOME DRYING OF
THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL ALLOW MORE WIDESPREAD BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS...AND ANY LINGERING FLURRIES IN KEKN AREA TO COME TO AN END.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TREND CONT WITH SUPPRESSION OF SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY. HAVE TIGHTENED
UP THE POP GRADIENT SIGNIFICANTLY...CONFINING POPS TO SW VA AND SE
WV...WHERE HIGH POPS WERE MAINTAINED ACROSS SW VA SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS STREAKING BAND OF WHAT SHOULD BE MAINLY -SN...WILL
QUICKLY SCOOT OFF TO THE E BY MIDDAY WITH JUST SOME FLURRIES OR
SPRINKLES ACROSS THOSE LOCATIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON. TOUGH TO
FIGURE OUT THE CLOUD COVER WITH VARYING HEIGHTS TO BASES
ANTICIPATED FOR THE REGION. SUSPECT QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS LINGERING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS S ZONES WITH BEST CHANCE OF AT LEAST BECOMING
BKN N OF I64 CORRIDOR. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FLOW BENEATH
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAY PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MIXING THE
STRATUS OUT THOUGH. INHERITED TEMPS CLOSE TO NEW GUIDANCE WITH
LITTLE TWEAKING.

S/W RIDGING WORKS IN ON SUNDAY AS WAA SLOWLY BEGINS TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO VEER AROUND TO SE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD HELP IN ERADICATING ANY LINGERING STRATUS
ALTHOUGH FLOW IS RATHER WEAK. WILL ALSO HAVE SOME WAA FROM THE S
TO HELP. UNFORTUNATELY...QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS WILL BE STREAKING
IN FROM THE W IN THE AFTERNOON...TO FILTER WHAT SUNSHINE WE MANAGE
TO GET. INHERITED TEMPS CLOSE TO NEW GUIDANCE WITH LITTLE
TWEAKING.

CIRRUS SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH STRATUS DEVELOPING ON E SLOPES
SHOULD HELP TO KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK. WILL BE WATCHING FOR UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE TO ROTATE OUT OF THE BASE OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF
OVER THE PLAINS. SUSPECT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ALONG SE
COAST AS THIS UPPER WAVE TRACKS THRU TN VALLEY INTO OUR NECK OF
THE WOODS. FEEL BULK OF HVY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL
REMAIN E OF THE CWA...CLIPPING MOUNTAIN ZONES MONDAY MORNING. THIS
IS WHERE HIGH POPS WERE CODED UP WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER MAXIMA OVER
SE OH. THINK STRENGTHENING DOWNSLOPING SE FLOW WILL KEEP PRECIP
CHANCES LOW ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. THERE WILL BE A CAD EVENT TO CONTEND
WITH AS THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER NEW
ENGLAND...ALBEIT WEAK. THIS CAD MAY BE STRENGTHENED INITIALLY AS
DRY LYR AROUND H85 MOISTENS UP MONDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT FELT
THE COOLER NAM WAS THE WAY TO GO ACROSS OUR CAD LOCATIONS...IE E
SLOPES AND GREENBRIER VALLEY. WETBULBING PROBABLY WOULD SUPPORT A
BRIEF BURST OF SN ON THE LEADING EDGE MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO FZRA AS WAA ALOFT OVERWHELMS THE AREA.
THERE COULD BE AN INCH OF SN BEFORE THIS TRANSITION WITH SOME
ICING TO WORRY ABOUT THEREAFTER...UNTIL MIDDAY. WILL INSERT A
MENTION IN HWO FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINES SHOULD CONFIDENCE INCREASE.
MOST OF THE PRECIP BECOMES CONFINED TO DEPARTING SURFACE LOW OFF
THE E COAST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH JUST A FEW -SHRA
EXPECTED...MAINLY ACROSS SE OH. TRIED TO CODE UP SOME WARMER TEMPS
E OF I79 CORRIDOR TO W SLOPES AIDED BY SOME DOWNSLOPING...WHERE
SOME MID 50S POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE GENERALLY UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE. CAD LOCATIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 30S HOWEVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
MONDAY...CREATING PRECIPITATION...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES...COULD BE A
PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS MOUNTAIN ZONES
AND NORTHERN WV. THIS LOW WILL EXIT OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY...TO
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN U.S TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY...AHEAD OF A LOW AND UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW...PW
VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND AN INCH WITH THE SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THIS TIMING...COULD SEE
FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY CHRISTMAS EVE...WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN A SNOWIER/MORE MIXED PRECIP FORECAST THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED. STILL LOOKING LIKE SOME SORT OF WINTER HEADLINES MAY BE
NECESSARY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WITH SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES
IN THE FORECAST...WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL SEEING SOME RADAR RETURNS WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...WITH MAINLY AN MVFR CLOUD DECK IN
PLACE. SOME VFR WAS NOTED ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EXPECT MVFR DECK TO
REFORM ACROSS THE SOUTH TONIGHT. HAVE CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT TO VFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. WEAK SFC GRADIENTS IN PLACE ONLY A
LIGHT SOUTHWEST PUFF.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RESURGENCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS
SOUTH MAY VARY...MAY ALSO HAVE SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
FARTHER SOUTH...AND EVEN A DROP INTO MVFR VIS IN SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SITES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         FRI 12/19/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT WINTRY MIX OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/30
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KMC









000
FXUS61 KRLX 190526
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1226 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH SE STATES
SATURDAY MAY CLIP THE SOUTH AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
920 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STILL THINKING THE STRATUS UNDER THE TEMP
INVERSION WILL TRY TO THIN THIS AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER
NORTH...BUT INCREASING MID DECK AT 7 TO 10 THSD OVER TOP. SO THE
LACK OF DEC SUN SEEMS TO BE WINNING AGAIN HTS-CRW ON NORTH.
NEARING 18Z...THE LOW CLOUDS DID BREAK IN THE LOGAN TO BECKLEY TO
MARLINTON CORRIDOR WITH BRIGHTER CONDITIONS.

WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT 850 MB TEMPS A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THEIR WAKE.  WILL CONTINUE BE
RATHER LIBERAL ON THE FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASE
MEASURABLE POPS VCNTY EKN. WILL ALSO HOLD ONTO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES LONGER ON FRIDAY IN THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.

BUT OVERALL...STILL A TRANQUIL MID DECEMBER PATTERN. IN CONTRAST...
WE ISSUED A PNS ON THE 5 YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF THE TURNPIKE TRAPPER.

STILL FINE TUNING OUR MIN/MAX TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ALONG
WITH THE HOURLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ON THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING SOME QPF NORTH OF THE SFC LOW TO POSSIBLE
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH A
WINTRY MIX PCPN SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COULD BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN OVER THE LOWLANDS. CUT BACK SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER
EAST LEAVING THE WESTERN SECTIONS MAINLY DRY.

CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON EASTERN
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM LOOSES ITS
INFLUENCE TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WHEN DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL.

WENT MAINLY WITH THE CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
MONDAY...CREATING PRECIPITATION...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES...COULD BE A
PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS MOUNTAIN ZONES
AND NORTHERN WV. THIS LOW WILL EXIT OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY...TO
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN U.S TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY...AHEAD OF A LOW AND UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW...PW
VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND AN INCH WITH THE SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THIS TIMING...COULD SEE
FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY CHRISTMAS EVE...WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN A SNOWIER/MORE MIXED PRECIP FORECAST THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED. STILL LOOKING LIKE SOME SORT OF WINTER HEADLINES MAY BE
NECESSARY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WITH SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES
IN THE FORECAST...WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL SEEING SOME RADAR RETURNS WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...WITH MAINLY AN MVFR CLOUD DECK IN
PLACE. SOME VFR WAS NOTED ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EXPECT MVFR DECK TO
REFORM ACROSS THE SOUTH TONIGHT. HAVE CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT TO VFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. WEAK SFC GRADIENTS IN PLACE ONLY A
LIGHT SOUTHWEST PUFF.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RESURGENCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS
SOUTH MAY VARY...MAY ALSO HAVE SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
FARTHER SOUTH...AND EVEN A DROP INTO MVFR VIS IN SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SITES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   FRI 12/19/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT WINTRY MIX OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB/MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KMC/MZ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 190526
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1226 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH SE STATES
SATURDAY MAY CLIP THE SOUTH AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
920 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STILL THINKING THE STRATUS UNDER THE TEMP
INVERSION WILL TRY TO THIN THIS AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER
NORTH...BUT INCREASING MID DECK AT 7 TO 10 THSD OVER TOP. SO THE
LACK OF DEC SUN SEEMS TO BE WINNING AGAIN HTS-CRW ON NORTH.
NEARING 18Z...THE LOW CLOUDS DID BREAK IN THE LOGAN TO BECKLEY TO
MARLINTON CORRIDOR WITH BRIGHTER CONDITIONS.

WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT 850 MB TEMPS A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THEIR WAKE.  WILL CONTINUE BE
RATHER LIBERAL ON THE FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASE
MEASURABLE POPS VCNTY EKN. WILL ALSO HOLD ONTO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES LONGER ON FRIDAY IN THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.

BUT OVERALL...STILL A TRANQUIL MID DECEMBER PATTERN. IN CONTRAST...
WE ISSUED A PNS ON THE 5 YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF THE TURNPIKE TRAPPER.

STILL FINE TUNING OUR MIN/MAX TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ALONG
WITH THE HOURLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ON THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING SOME QPF NORTH OF THE SFC LOW TO POSSIBLE
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH A
WINTRY MIX PCPN SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COULD BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN OVER THE LOWLANDS. CUT BACK SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER
EAST LEAVING THE WESTERN SECTIONS MAINLY DRY.

CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON EASTERN
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM LOOSES ITS
INFLUENCE TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WHEN DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL.

WENT MAINLY WITH THE CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
MONDAY...CREATING PRECIPITATION...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES...COULD BE A
PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS MOUNTAIN ZONES
AND NORTHERN WV. THIS LOW WILL EXIT OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY...TO
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN U.S TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY...AHEAD OF A LOW AND UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW...PW
VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND AN INCH WITH THE SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THIS TIMING...COULD SEE
FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY CHRISTMAS EVE...WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN A SNOWIER/MORE MIXED PRECIP FORECAST THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED. STILL LOOKING LIKE SOME SORT OF WINTER HEADLINES MAY BE
NECESSARY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WITH SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES
IN THE FORECAST...WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL SEEING SOME RADAR RETURNS WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...WITH MAINLY AN MVFR CLOUD DECK IN
PLACE. SOME VFR WAS NOTED ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EXPECT MVFR DECK TO
REFORM ACROSS THE SOUTH TONIGHT. HAVE CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT TO VFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. WEAK SFC GRADIENTS IN PLACE ONLY A
LIGHT SOUTHWEST PUFF.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RESURGENCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS
SOUTH MAY VARY...MAY ALSO HAVE SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
FARTHER SOUTH...AND EVEN A DROP INTO MVFR VIS IN SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SITES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   FRI 12/19/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT WINTRY MIX OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB/MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KMC/MZ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 190526
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1226 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH SE STATES
SATURDAY MAY CLIP THE SOUTH AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
920 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STILL THINKING THE STRATUS UNDER THE TEMP
INVERSION WILL TRY TO THIN THIS AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER
NORTH...BUT INCREASING MID DECK AT 7 TO 10 THSD OVER TOP. SO THE
LACK OF DEC SUN SEEMS TO BE WINNING AGAIN HTS-CRW ON NORTH.
NEARING 18Z...THE LOW CLOUDS DID BREAK IN THE LOGAN TO BECKLEY TO
MARLINTON CORRIDOR WITH BRIGHTER CONDITIONS.

WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT 850 MB TEMPS A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THEIR WAKE.  WILL CONTINUE BE
RATHER LIBERAL ON THE FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASE
MEASURABLE POPS VCNTY EKN. WILL ALSO HOLD ONTO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES LONGER ON FRIDAY IN THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.

BUT OVERALL...STILL A TRANQUIL MID DECEMBER PATTERN. IN CONTRAST...
WE ISSUED A PNS ON THE 5 YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF THE TURNPIKE TRAPPER.

STILL FINE TUNING OUR MIN/MAX TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ALONG
WITH THE HOURLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ON THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING SOME QPF NORTH OF THE SFC LOW TO POSSIBLE
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH A
WINTRY MIX PCPN SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COULD BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN OVER THE LOWLANDS. CUT BACK SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER
EAST LEAVING THE WESTERN SECTIONS MAINLY DRY.

CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON EASTERN
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM LOOSES ITS
INFLUENCE TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WHEN DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL.

WENT MAINLY WITH THE CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
MONDAY...CREATING PRECIPITATION...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES...COULD BE A
PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS MOUNTAIN ZONES
AND NORTHERN WV. THIS LOW WILL EXIT OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY...TO
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN U.S TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY...AHEAD OF A LOW AND UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW...PW
VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND AN INCH WITH THE SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THIS TIMING...COULD SEE
FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY CHRISTMAS EVE...WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN A SNOWIER/MORE MIXED PRECIP FORECAST THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED. STILL LOOKING LIKE SOME SORT OF WINTER HEADLINES MAY BE
NECESSARY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WITH SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES
IN THE FORECAST...WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL SEEING SOME RADAR RETURNS WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...WITH MAINLY AN MVFR CLOUD DECK IN
PLACE. SOME VFR WAS NOTED ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EXPECT MVFR DECK TO
REFORM ACROSS THE SOUTH TONIGHT. HAVE CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT TO VFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. WEAK SFC GRADIENTS IN PLACE ONLY A
LIGHT SOUTHWEST PUFF.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RESURGENCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS
SOUTH MAY VARY...MAY ALSO HAVE SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
FARTHER SOUTH...AND EVEN A DROP INTO MVFR VIS IN SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SITES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   FRI 12/19/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT WINTRY MIX OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB/MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KMC/MZ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 190526
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1226 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH SE STATES
SATURDAY MAY CLIP THE SOUTH AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
920 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STILL THINKING THE STRATUS UNDER THE TEMP
INVERSION WILL TRY TO THIN THIS AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER
NORTH...BUT INCREASING MID DECK AT 7 TO 10 THSD OVER TOP. SO THE
LACK OF DEC SUN SEEMS TO BE WINNING AGAIN HTS-CRW ON NORTH.
NEARING 18Z...THE LOW CLOUDS DID BREAK IN THE LOGAN TO BECKLEY TO
MARLINTON CORRIDOR WITH BRIGHTER CONDITIONS.

WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT 850 MB TEMPS A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THEIR WAKE.  WILL CONTINUE BE
RATHER LIBERAL ON THE FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASE
MEASURABLE POPS VCNTY EKN. WILL ALSO HOLD ONTO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES LONGER ON FRIDAY IN THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.

BUT OVERALL...STILL A TRANQUIL MID DECEMBER PATTERN. IN CONTRAST...
WE ISSUED A PNS ON THE 5 YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF THE TURNPIKE TRAPPER.

STILL FINE TUNING OUR MIN/MAX TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ALONG
WITH THE HOURLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ON THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING SOME QPF NORTH OF THE SFC LOW TO POSSIBLE
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH A
WINTRY MIX PCPN SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COULD BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN OVER THE LOWLANDS. CUT BACK SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER
EAST LEAVING THE WESTERN SECTIONS MAINLY DRY.

CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON EASTERN
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM LOOSES ITS
INFLUENCE TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WHEN DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL.

WENT MAINLY WITH THE CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
MONDAY...CREATING PRECIPITATION...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES...COULD BE A
PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS MOUNTAIN ZONES
AND NORTHERN WV. THIS LOW WILL EXIT OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY...TO
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN U.S TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY...AHEAD OF A LOW AND UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW...PW
VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND AN INCH WITH THE SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THIS TIMING...COULD SEE
FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY CHRISTMAS EVE...WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN A SNOWIER/MORE MIXED PRECIP FORECAST THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED. STILL LOOKING LIKE SOME SORT OF WINTER HEADLINES MAY BE
NECESSARY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WITH SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES
IN THE FORECAST...WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL SEEING SOME RADAR RETURNS WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...WITH MAINLY AN MVFR CLOUD DECK IN
PLACE. SOME VFR WAS NOTED ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EXPECT MVFR DECK TO
REFORM ACROSS THE SOUTH TONIGHT. HAVE CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT TO VFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. WEAK SFC GRADIENTS IN PLACE ONLY A
LIGHT SOUTHWEST PUFF.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RESURGENCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS
SOUTH MAY VARY...MAY ALSO HAVE SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
FARTHER SOUTH...AND EVEN A DROP INTO MVFR VIS IN SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SITES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   FRI 12/19/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT WINTRY MIX OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB/MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KMC/MZ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 190221
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
921 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH SE
STATES SATURDAY MAY CLIP THE SOUTH AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
920 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STILL THINKING THE STRATUS UNDER THE TEMP
INVERSION WILL TRY TO THIN THIS AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER
NORTH...BUT INCREASING MID DECK AT 7 TO 10 THSD OVER TOP. SO THE
LACK OF DEC SUN SEEMS TO BE WINNING AGAIN HTS-CRW ON NORTH.
NEARING 18Z...THE LOW CLOUDS DID BREAK IN THE LOGAN TO BECKLEY TO
MARLINTON CORRIDOR WITH BRIGHTER CONDITIONS.

WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT 850 MB TEMPS A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THEIR WAKE.  WILL CONTINUE BE
RATHER LIBERAL ON THE FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASE
MEASURABLE POPS VCNTY EKN. WILL ALSO HOLD ONTO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES LONGER ON FRIDAY IN THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.

BUT OVERALL...STILL A TRANQUIL MID DECEMBER PATTERN. IN CONTRAST...
WE ISSUED A PNS ON THE 5 YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF THE TURNPIKE TRAPPER.

STILL FINE TUNING OUR MIN/MAX TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ALONG
WITH THE HOURLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ON THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING SOME QPF NORTH OF THE SFC LOW TO POSSIBLE
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH A
WINTRY MIX PCPN SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COULD BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN OVER THE LOWLANDS. CUT BACK SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER
EAST LEAVING THE WESTERN SECTIONS MAINLY DRY.

CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON EASTERN
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM LOOSES ITS
INFLUENCE TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WHEN DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL.

WENT MAINLY WITH THE CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
MONDAY...CREATING PRECIPITATION...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES...COULD BE A
PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS MOUNTAIN ZONES
AND NORTHERN WV. THIS LOW WILL EXIT OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY...TO
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN U.S TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY...AHEAD OF A LOW AND UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW...PW
VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND AN INCH WITH THE SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THIS TIMING...COULD SEE
FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY CHRISTMAS EVE...WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN A SNOWIER/MORE MIXED PRECIP FORECAST THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED. STILL LOOKING LIKE SOME SORT OF WINTER HEADLINES MAY BE
NECESSARY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WITH SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES
IN THE FORECAST...WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADAR SHOWING BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS DRIFTING NE...BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS...SOME OF THESE ARE MAKING IT TO THE GROUND WHILE
OTHERS APPEAR TO NOT BE. NORTHERN HALF OF CWA HAS BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING A SNOW SHOWER...AND ALSO IS STUCK IN THE MVFR CLOUD DECK.
WHILE VFR MID DECK CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH. DO EXPECT
MVFR DECK TO REFORM ACROSS THE SOUTH TONIGHT...AND COULD EVEN GET
SOME FLURRIES DOWN TO HTS-CRW...BUT LEFT OUT OF TAF FOR NOW.
CLOUDS SCATTER OUT TO VFR LATER TOMORROW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RESURGENCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS
SOUTH MAY VARY...MAY ALSO HAVE SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
FARTHER SOUTH...AND EVEN A DROP INTO MVFR VIS IN SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SITES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                       FRI 12/19/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EST 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    H    M    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT WINTRY MIX OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB/MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...MZ








000
FXUS61 KRLX 190221
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
921 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH SE
STATES SATURDAY MAY CLIP THE SOUTH AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
920 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STILL THINKING THE STRATUS UNDER THE TEMP
INVERSION WILL TRY TO THIN THIS AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER
NORTH...BUT INCREASING MID DECK AT 7 TO 10 THSD OVER TOP. SO THE
LACK OF DEC SUN SEEMS TO BE WINNING AGAIN HTS-CRW ON NORTH.
NEARING 18Z...THE LOW CLOUDS DID BREAK IN THE LOGAN TO BECKLEY TO
MARLINTON CORRIDOR WITH BRIGHTER CONDITIONS.

WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT 850 MB TEMPS A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THEIR WAKE.  WILL CONTINUE BE
RATHER LIBERAL ON THE FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASE
MEASURABLE POPS VCNTY EKN. WILL ALSO HOLD ONTO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES LONGER ON FRIDAY IN THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.

BUT OVERALL...STILL A TRANQUIL MID DECEMBER PATTERN. IN CONTRAST...
WE ISSUED A PNS ON THE 5 YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF THE TURNPIKE TRAPPER.

STILL FINE TUNING OUR MIN/MAX TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ALONG
WITH THE HOURLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ON THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING SOME QPF NORTH OF THE SFC LOW TO POSSIBLE
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH A
WINTRY MIX PCPN SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COULD BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN OVER THE LOWLANDS. CUT BACK SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER
EAST LEAVING THE WESTERN SECTIONS MAINLY DRY.

CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON EASTERN
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM LOOSES ITS
INFLUENCE TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WHEN DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL.

WENT MAINLY WITH THE CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
MONDAY...CREATING PRECIPITATION...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES...COULD BE A
PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS MOUNTAIN ZONES
AND NORTHERN WV. THIS LOW WILL EXIT OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY...TO
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN U.S TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY...AHEAD OF A LOW AND UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW...PW
VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND AN INCH WITH THE SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THIS TIMING...COULD SEE
FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY CHRISTMAS EVE...WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN A SNOWIER/MORE MIXED PRECIP FORECAST THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED. STILL LOOKING LIKE SOME SORT OF WINTER HEADLINES MAY BE
NECESSARY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WITH SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES
IN THE FORECAST...WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADAR SHOWING BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS DRIFTING NE...BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS...SOME OF THESE ARE MAKING IT TO THE GROUND WHILE
OTHERS APPEAR TO NOT BE. NORTHERN HALF OF CWA HAS BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING A SNOW SHOWER...AND ALSO IS STUCK IN THE MVFR CLOUD DECK.
WHILE VFR MID DECK CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH. DO EXPECT
MVFR DECK TO REFORM ACROSS THE SOUTH TONIGHT...AND COULD EVEN GET
SOME FLURRIES DOWN TO HTS-CRW...BUT LEFT OUT OF TAF FOR NOW.
CLOUDS SCATTER OUT TO VFR LATER TOMORROW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RESURGENCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS
SOUTH MAY VARY...MAY ALSO HAVE SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
FARTHER SOUTH...AND EVEN A DROP INTO MVFR VIS IN SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SITES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                       FRI 12/19/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EST 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    H    M    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT WINTRY MIX OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB/MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...MZ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 182321
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
621 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH SE
STATES SATURDAY MAY CLIP THE SOUTH AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
620 PM UPDATE...RADAR SHOWS SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN
HALF OF CWA. BASED ON OBS...SOME OF THESE ARE HITTING THE GROUND
WHILE OTHERS LIKELY ARE NOT. FEEL THIS IS HANDLED WELL IN CURRENT
FORECAST...SO ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STILL THINKING THE STRATUS UNDER THE TEMP
INVERSION WILL TRY TO THIN THIS AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER
NORTH...BUT INCREASING MID DECK AT 7 TO 10 THSD OVER TOP. SO THE
LACK OF DEC SUN SEEMS TO BE WINNING AGAIN HTS-CRW ON NORTH.
NEARING 18Z...THE LOW CLOUDS DID BREAK IN THE LOGAN TO BECKLEY TO
MARLINTON CORRIDOR WITH BRIGHTER CONDITIONS.

WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT 850 MB TEMPS A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THEIR WAKE.  WILL CONTINUE BE
RATHER LIBERAL ON THE FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASE
MEASURABLE POPS VCNTY EKN. WILL ALSO HOLD ONTO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES LONGER ON FRIDAY IN THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.

BUT OVERALL...STILL A TRANQUIL MID DECEMBER PATTERN. IN CONTRAST...
WE ISSUED A PNS ON THE 5 YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF THE TURNPIKE TRAPPER.

STILL FINE TUNING OUR MIN/MAX TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ALONG
WITH THE HOURLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ON THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING SOME QPF NORTH OF THE SFC LOW TO POSSIBLE
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH A
WINTRY MIX PCPN SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COULD BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN OVER THE LOWLANDS. CUT BACK SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER
EAST LEAVING THE WESTERN SECTIONS MAINLY DRY.

CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON EASTERN
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM LOOSES ITS
INFLUENCE TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WHEN DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL.

WENT MAINLY WITH THE CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
MONDAY...CREATING PRECIPITATION...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES...COULD BE A
PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS MOUNTAIN ZONES
AND NORTHERN WV. THIS LOW WILL EXIT OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY...TO
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN U.S TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY...AHEAD OF A LOW AND UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW...PW
VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND AN INCH WITH THE SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THIS TIMING...COULD SEE
FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY CHRISTMAS EVE...WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN A SNOWIER/MORE MIXED PRECIP FORECAST THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED. STILL LOOKING LIKE SOME SORT OF WINTER HEADLINES MAY BE
NECESSARY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WITH SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES
IN THE FORECAST...WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADAR SHOWING BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS DRIFTING NE...BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS...SOME OF THESE ARE MAKING IT TO THE GROUND WHILE
OTHERS APPEAR TO NOT BE. NORTHERN HALF OF CWA HAS BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING A SNOW SHOWER...AND ALSO IS STUCK IN THE MVFR CLOUD DECK.
WHILE VFR MID DECK CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH. DO EXPECT
MVFR DECK TO REFORM ACROSS THE SOUTH TONIGHT...AND COULD EVEN GET
SOME FLURRIES DOWN TO HTS-CRW...BUT LEFT OUT OF TAF FOR NOW.
CLOUDS SCATTER OUT TO VFR LATER TOMORROW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RESURGENCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS
SOUTH MAY VARY...MAY ALSO HAVE SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
FARTHER SOUTH...AND EVEN A DROP INTO MVFR VIS IN SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SITES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT WINTRY MIX OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB/MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...MZ








000
FXUS61 KRLX 182321
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
621 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH SE
STATES SATURDAY MAY CLIP THE SOUTH AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
620 PM UPDATE...RADAR SHOWS SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN
HALF OF CWA. BASED ON OBS...SOME OF THESE ARE HITTING THE GROUND
WHILE OTHERS LIKELY ARE NOT. FEEL THIS IS HANDLED WELL IN CURRENT
FORECAST...SO ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STILL THINKING THE STRATUS UNDER THE TEMP
INVERSION WILL TRY TO THIN THIS AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER
NORTH...BUT INCREASING MID DECK AT 7 TO 10 THSD OVER TOP. SO THE
LACK OF DEC SUN SEEMS TO BE WINNING AGAIN HTS-CRW ON NORTH.
NEARING 18Z...THE LOW CLOUDS DID BREAK IN THE LOGAN TO BECKLEY TO
MARLINTON CORRIDOR WITH BRIGHTER CONDITIONS.

WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT 850 MB TEMPS A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THEIR WAKE.  WILL CONTINUE BE
RATHER LIBERAL ON THE FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASE
MEASURABLE POPS VCNTY EKN. WILL ALSO HOLD ONTO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES LONGER ON FRIDAY IN THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.

BUT OVERALL...STILL A TRANQUIL MID DECEMBER PATTERN. IN CONTRAST...
WE ISSUED A PNS ON THE 5 YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF THE TURNPIKE TRAPPER.

STILL FINE TUNING OUR MIN/MAX TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ALONG
WITH THE HOURLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ON THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING SOME QPF NORTH OF THE SFC LOW TO POSSIBLE
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH A
WINTRY MIX PCPN SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COULD BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN OVER THE LOWLANDS. CUT BACK SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER
EAST LEAVING THE WESTERN SECTIONS MAINLY DRY.

CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON EASTERN
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM LOOSES ITS
INFLUENCE TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WHEN DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL.

WENT MAINLY WITH THE CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
MONDAY...CREATING PRECIPITATION...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES...COULD BE A
PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS MOUNTAIN ZONES
AND NORTHERN WV. THIS LOW WILL EXIT OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY...TO
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN U.S TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY...AHEAD OF A LOW AND UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW...PW
VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND AN INCH WITH THE SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THIS TIMING...COULD SEE
FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY CHRISTMAS EVE...WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN A SNOWIER/MORE MIXED PRECIP FORECAST THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED. STILL LOOKING LIKE SOME SORT OF WINTER HEADLINES MAY BE
NECESSARY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WITH SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES
IN THE FORECAST...WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADAR SHOWING BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS DRIFTING NE...BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS...SOME OF THESE ARE MAKING IT TO THE GROUND WHILE
OTHERS APPEAR TO NOT BE. NORTHERN HALF OF CWA HAS BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING A SNOW SHOWER...AND ALSO IS STUCK IN THE MVFR CLOUD DECK.
WHILE VFR MID DECK CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH. DO EXPECT
MVFR DECK TO REFORM ACROSS THE SOUTH TONIGHT...AND COULD EVEN GET
SOME FLURRIES DOWN TO HTS-CRW...BUT LEFT OUT OF TAF FOR NOW.
CLOUDS SCATTER OUT TO VFR LATER TOMORROW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RESURGENCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS
SOUTH MAY VARY...MAY ALSO HAVE SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
FARTHER SOUTH...AND EVEN A DROP INTO MVFR VIS IN SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SITES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT WINTRY MIX OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB/MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...MZ








000
FXUS61 KRLX 182321
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
621 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH SE
STATES SATURDAY MAY CLIP THE SOUTH AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
620 PM UPDATE...RADAR SHOWS SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN
HALF OF CWA. BASED ON OBS...SOME OF THESE ARE HITTING THE GROUND
WHILE OTHERS LIKELY ARE NOT. FEEL THIS IS HANDLED WELL IN CURRENT
FORECAST...SO ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STILL THINKING THE STRATUS UNDER THE TEMP
INVERSION WILL TRY TO THIN THIS AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER
NORTH...BUT INCREASING MID DECK AT 7 TO 10 THSD OVER TOP. SO THE
LACK OF DEC SUN SEEMS TO BE WINNING AGAIN HTS-CRW ON NORTH.
NEARING 18Z...THE LOW CLOUDS DID BREAK IN THE LOGAN TO BECKLEY TO
MARLINTON CORRIDOR WITH BRIGHTER CONDITIONS.

WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT 850 MB TEMPS A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THEIR WAKE.  WILL CONTINUE BE
RATHER LIBERAL ON THE FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASE
MEASURABLE POPS VCNTY EKN. WILL ALSO HOLD ONTO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES LONGER ON FRIDAY IN THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.

BUT OVERALL...STILL A TRANQUIL MID DECEMBER PATTERN. IN CONTRAST...
WE ISSUED A PNS ON THE 5 YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF THE TURNPIKE TRAPPER.

STILL FINE TUNING OUR MIN/MAX TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ALONG
WITH THE HOURLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ON THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING SOME QPF NORTH OF THE SFC LOW TO POSSIBLE
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH A
WINTRY MIX PCPN SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COULD BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN OVER THE LOWLANDS. CUT BACK SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER
EAST LEAVING THE WESTERN SECTIONS MAINLY DRY.

CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON EASTERN
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM LOOSES ITS
INFLUENCE TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WHEN DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL.

WENT MAINLY WITH THE CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
MONDAY...CREATING PRECIPITATION...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES...COULD BE A
PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS MOUNTAIN ZONES
AND NORTHERN WV. THIS LOW WILL EXIT OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY...TO
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN U.S TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY...AHEAD OF A LOW AND UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW...PW
VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND AN INCH WITH THE SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THIS TIMING...COULD SEE
FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY CHRISTMAS EVE...WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN A SNOWIER/MORE MIXED PRECIP FORECAST THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED. STILL LOOKING LIKE SOME SORT OF WINTER HEADLINES MAY BE
NECESSARY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WITH SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES
IN THE FORECAST...WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADAR SHOWING BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS DRIFTING NE...BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS...SOME OF THESE ARE MAKING IT TO THE GROUND WHILE
OTHERS APPEAR TO NOT BE. NORTHERN HALF OF CWA HAS BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING A SNOW SHOWER...AND ALSO IS STUCK IN THE MVFR CLOUD DECK.
WHILE VFR MID DECK CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH. DO EXPECT
MVFR DECK TO REFORM ACROSS THE SOUTH TONIGHT...AND COULD EVEN GET
SOME FLURRIES DOWN TO HTS-CRW...BUT LEFT OUT OF TAF FOR NOW.
CLOUDS SCATTER OUT TO VFR LATER TOMORROW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RESURGENCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS
SOUTH MAY VARY...MAY ALSO HAVE SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
FARTHER SOUTH...AND EVEN A DROP INTO MVFR VIS IN SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SITES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT WINTRY MIX OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB/MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...MZ








000
FXUS61 KRLX 182321
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
621 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH SE
STATES SATURDAY MAY CLIP THE SOUTH AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
620 PM UPDATE...RADAR SHOWS SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN
HALF OF CWA. BASED ON OBS...SOME OF THESE ARE HITTING THE GROUND
WHILE OTHERS LIKELY ARE NOT. FEEL THIS IS HANDLED WELL IN CURRENT
FORECAST...SO ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STILL THINKING THE STRATUS UNDER THE TEMP
INVERSION WILL TRY TO THIN THIS AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER
NORTH...BUT INCREASING MID DECK AT 7 TO 10 THSD OVER TOP. SO THE
LACK OF DEC SUN SEEMS TO BE WINNING AGAIN HTS-CRW ON NORTH.
NEARING 18Z...THE LOW CLOUDS DID BREAK IN THE LOGAN TO BECKLEY TO
MARLINTON CORRIDOR WITH BRIGHTER CONDITIONS.

WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT 850 MB TEMPS A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THEIR WAKE.  WILL CONTINUE BE
RATHER LIBERAL ON THE FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASE
MEASURABLE POPS VCNTY EKN. WILL ALSO HOLD ONTO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES LONGER ON FRIDAY IN THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.

BUT OVERALL...STILL A TRANQUIL MID DECEMBER PATTERN. IN CONTRAST...
WE ISSUED A PNS ON THE 5 YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF THE TURNPIKE TRAPPER.

STILL FINE TUNING OUR MIN/MAX TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ALONG
WITH THE HOURLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ON THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING SOME QPF NORTH OF THE SFC LOW TO POSSIBLE
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH A
WINTRY MIX PCPN SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COULD BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN OVER THE LOWLANDS. CUT BACK SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER
EAST LEAVING THE WESTERN SECTIONS MAINLY DRY.

CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON EASTERN
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM LOOSES ITS
INFLUENCE TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WHEN DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL.

WENT MAINLY WITH THE CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
MONDAY...CREATING PRECIPITATION...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES...COULD BE A
PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS MOUNTAIN ZONES
AND NORTHERN WV. THIS LOW WILL EXIT OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY...TO
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN U.S TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY...AHEAD OF A LOW AND UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW...PW
VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND AN INCH WITH THE SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THIS TIMING...COULD SEE
FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY CHRISTMAS EVE...WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN A SNOWIER/MORE MIXED PRECIP FORECAST THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED. STILL LOOKING LIKE SOME SORT OF WINTER HEADLINES MAY BE
NECESSARY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WITH SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES
IN THE FORECAST...WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADAR SHOWING BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS DRIFTING NE...BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS...SOME OF THESE ARE MAKING IT TO THE GROUND WHILE
OTHERS APPEAR TO NOT BE. NORTHERN HALF OF CWA HAS BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING A SNOW SHOWER...AND ALSO IS STUCK IN THE MVFR CLOUD DECK.
WHILE VFR MID DECK CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH. DO EXPECT
MVFR DECK TO REFORM ACROSS THE SOUTH TONIGHT...AND COULD EVEN GET
SOME FLURRIES DOWN TO HTS-CRW...BUT LEFT OUT OF TAF FOR NOW.
CLOUDS SCATTER OUT TO VFR LATER TOMORROW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RESURGENCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS
SOUTH MAY VARY...MAY ALSO HAVE SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
FARTHER SOUTH...AND EVEN A DROP INTO MVFR VIS IN SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SITES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT WINTRY MIX OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB/MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...MZ








000
FXUS61 KRLX 182052
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
353 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH SE
STATES SATURDAY MAY CLIP THE SOUTH AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL THINKING THE STRATUS UNDER THE TEMP INVERSION WILL TRY TO THIN
THIS AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER NORTH...BUT INCREASING MID DECK AT 7 TO
10 THSD OVER TOP.  SO THE LACK OF DEC SUN SEEMS TO BE WINNING AGAIN
HTS-CRW ON NORTH. NEARING 18Z...THE LOW CLOUDS DID BREAK IN THE
LOGAN TO BECKLEY TO MARLINTON CORRIDOR WITH BRIGHTER CONDITIONS.

WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT 850 MB TEMPS A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THEIR WAKE.  WILL CONTINUE BE
RATHER LIBERAL ON THE FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASE
MEASURABLE POPS VCNTY EKN. WILL ALSO HOLD ONTO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES LONGER ON FRIDAY IN THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.

BUT OVERALL...STILL A TRANQUIL MID DECEMBER PATTERN. IN CONTRAST...
WE ISSUED A PNS ON THE 5 YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF THE TURNPIKE TRAPPER.

STILL FINE TUNING OUR MIN/MAX TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ALONG
WITH THE HOURLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ON THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING SOME QPF NORTH OF THE SFC LOW TO POSSIBLE
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH A
WINTRY MIX PCPN SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COULD BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN OVER THE LOWLANDS. CUT BACK SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER
EAST LEAVING THE WESTERN SECTIONS MAINLY DRY.

CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON EASTERN
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM LOOSES ITS
INFLUENCE TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WHEN DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL.

WENT MAINLY WITH THE CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
MONDAY...CREATING PRECIPITATION...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES...COULD BE A
PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS MOUNTAIN ZONES
AND NORTHERN WV. THIS LOW WILL EXIT OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY...TO
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN U.S TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY...AHEAD OF A LOW AND UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW...PW
VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND AN INCH WITH THE SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THIS TIMING...COULD SEE
FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY CHRISTMAS EVE...WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN A SNOWIER/MORE MIXED PRECIP FORECAST THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED. STILL LOOKING LIKE SOME SORT OF WINTER HEADLINES MAY BE
NECESSARY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WITH SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES
IN THE FORECAST...WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD CEILINGS 15 HND TO 25 HND FT MAINLY HTS-CRW ON NORTH WITH
MID DECK LAYERS AT 7 TO 10 THSD FT AGL.  VCNTY BKW...LOWER CLOUDS
SCATTERED INTO TONIGHT...BUT MAY BECOME A CEILINGS AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO BEFORE DARK...THEN SPREAD ALONG THE PKB-CKB-EKN CORRIDOR 00Z TO
06Z...THEN CREEPING FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD HTS-CRW-BKW 06Z TO 12Z
FRIDAY. VSBY MAY BRIEFLY GO INTO 3 TO 5 MILES CKB-EKN CORRIDOR 04Z
TO 15Z FRIDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF THE CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR IN THE
HTS-CRW-EKN CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON COULD VARY...AND LIKEWISE THE
FORMATION AND SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THESE CEILINGS AGAIN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

COVERAGE OF FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING COULD VARY.  VSBY MAY BRIEFLY GO LOWER THAN FORECAST IN THE
CKB-EKN CORRIDOR.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT WINTRY MIX OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KTB











000
FXUS61 KRLX 182052
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
353 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH SE
STATES SATURDAY MAY CLIP THE SOUTH AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL THINKING THE STRATUS UNDER THE TEMP INVERSION WILL TRY TO THIN
THIS AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER NORTH...BUT INCREASING MID DECK AT 7 TO
10 THSD OVER TOP.  SO THE LACK OF DEC SUN SEEMS TO BE WINNING AGAIN
HTS-CRW ON NORTH. NEARING 18Z...THE LOW CLOUDS DID BREAK IN THE
LOGAN TO BECKLEY TO MARLINTON CORRIDOR WITH BRIGHTER CONDITIONS.

WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT 850 MB TEMPS A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THEIR WAKE.  WILL CONTINUE BE
RATHER LIBERAL ON THE FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASE
MEASURABLE POPS VCNTY EKN. WILL ALSO HOLD ONTO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES LONGER ON FRIDAY IN THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.

BUT OVERALL...STILL A TRANQUIL MID DECEMBER PATTERN. IN CONTRAST...
WE ISSUED A PNS ON THE 5 YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF THE TURNPIKE TRAPPER.

STILL FINE TUNING OUR MIN/MAX TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ALONG
WITH THE HOURLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ON THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING SOME QPF NORTH OF THE SFC LOW TO POSSIBLE
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH A
WINTRY MIX PCPN SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COULD BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN OVER THE LOWLANDS. CUT BACK SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER
EAST LEAVING THE WESTERN SECTIONS MAINLY DRY.

CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON EASTERN
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM LOOSES ITS
INFLUENCE TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WHEN DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL.

WENT MAINLY WITH THE CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
MONDAY...CREATING PRECIPITATION...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES...COULD BE A
PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS MOUNTAIN ZONES
AND NORTHERN WV. THIS LOW WILL EXIT OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY...TO
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN U.S TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY...AHEAD OF A LOW AND UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW...PW
VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND AN INCH WITH THE SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THIS TIMING...COULD SEE
FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY CHRISTMAS EVE...WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN A SNOWIER/MORE MIXED PRECIP FORECAST THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED. STILL LOOKING LIKE SOME SORT OF WINTER HEADLINES MAY BE
NECESSARY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WITH SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES
IN THE FORECAST...WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD CEILINGS 15 HND TO 25 HND FT MAINLY HTS-CRW ON NORTH WITH
MID DECK LAYERS AT 7 TO 10 THSD FT AGL.  VCNTY BKW...LOWER CLOUDS
SCATTERED INTO TONIGHT...BUT MAY BECOME A CEILINGS AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO BEFORE DARK...THEN SPREAD ALONG THE PKB-CKB-EKN CORRIDOR 00Z TO
06Z...THEN CREEPING FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD HTS-CRW-BKW 06Z TO 12Z
FRIDAY. VSBY MAY BRIEFLY GO INTO 3 TO 5 MILES CKB-EKN CORRIDOR 04Z
TO 15Z FRIDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF THE CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR IN THE
HTS-CRW-EKN CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON COULD VARY...AND LIKEWISE THE
FORMATION AND SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THESE CEILINGS AGAIN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

COVERAGE OF FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING COULD VARY.  VSBY MAY BRIEFLY GO LOWER THAN FORECAST IN THE
CKB-EKN CORRIDOR.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT WINTRY MIX OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KTB











000
FXUS61 KRLX 182052
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
353 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH SE
STATES SATURDAY MAY CLIP THE SOUTH AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL THINKING THE STRATUS UNDER THE TEMP INVERSION WILL TRY TO THIN
THIS AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER NORTH...BUT INCREASING MID DECK AT 7 TO
10 THSD OVER TOP.  SO THE LACK OF DEC SUN SEEMS TO BE WINNING AGAIN
HTS-CRW ON NORTH. NEARING 18Z...THE LOW CLOUDS DID BREAK IN THE
LOGAN TO BECKLEY TO MARLINTON CORRIDOR WITH BRIGHTER CONDITIONS.

WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT 850 MB TEMPS A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THEIR WAKE.  WILL CONTINUE BE
RATHER LIBERAL ON THE FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASE
MEASURABLE POPS VCNTY EKN. WILL ALSO HOLD ONTO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES LONGER ON FRIDAY IN THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.

BUT OVERALL...STILL A TRANQUIL MID DECEMBER PATTERN. IN CONTRAST...
WE ISSUED A PNS ON THE 5 YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF THE TURNPIKE TRAPPER.

STILL FINE TUNING OUR MIN/MAX TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ALONG
WITH THE HOURLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ON THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING SOME QPF NORTH OF THE SFC LOW TO POSSIBLE
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH A
WINTRY MIX PCPN SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COULD BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN OVER THE LOWLANDS. CUT BACK SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER
EAST LEAVING THE WESTERN SECTIONS MAINLY DRY.

CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON EASTERN
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM LOOSES ITS
INFLUENCE TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WHEN DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL.

WENT MAINLY WITH THE CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
MONDAY...CREATING PRECIPITATION...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES...COULD BE A
PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS MOUNTAIN ZONES
AND NORTHERN WV. THIS LOW WILL EXIT OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY...TO
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN U.S TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY...AHEAD OF A LOW AND UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW...PW
VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND AN INCH WITH THE SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THIS TIMING...COULD SEE
FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY CHRISTMAS EVE...WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN A SNOWIER/MORE MIXED PRECIP FORECAST THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED. STILL LOOKING LIKE SOME SORT OF WINTER HEADLINES MAY BE
NECESSARY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WITH SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES
IN THE FORECAST...WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD CEILINGS 15 HND TO 25 HND FT MAINLY HTS-CRW ON NORTH WITH
MID DECK LAYERS AT 7 TO 10 THSD FT AGL.  VCNTY BKW...LOWER CLOUDS
SCATTERED INTO TONIGHT...BUT MAY BECOME A CEILINGS AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO BEFORE DARK...THEN SPREAD ALONG THE PKB-CKB-EKN CORRIDOR 00Z TO
06Z...THEN CREEPING FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD HTS-CRW-BKW 06Z TO 12Z
FRIDAY. VSBY MAY BRIEFLY GO INTO 3 TO 5 MILES CKB-EKN CORRIDOR 04Z
TO 15Z FRIDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF THE CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR IN THE
HTS-CRW-EKN CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON COULD VARY...AND LIKEWISE THE
FORMATION AND SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THESE CEILINGS AGAIN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

COVERAGE OF FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING COULD VARY.  VSBY MAY BRIEFLY GO LOWER THAN FORECAST IN THE
CKB-EKN CORRIDOR.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT WINTRY MIX OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KTB











000
FXUS61 KRLX 182052
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
353 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH SE
STATES SATURDAY MAY CLIP THE SOUTH AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL THINKING THE STRATUS UNDER THE TEMP INVERSION WILL TRY TO THIN
THIS AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER NORTH...BUT INCREASING MID DECK AT 7 TO
10 THSD OVER TOP.  SO THE LACK OF DEC SUN SEEMS TO BE WINNING AGAIN
HTS-CRW ON NORTH. NEARING 18Z...THE LOW CLOUDS DID BREAK IN THE
LOGAN TO BECKLEY TO MARLINTON CORRIDOR WITH BRIGHTER CONDITIONS.

WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT 850 MB TEMPS A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THEIR WAKE.  WILL CONTINUE BE
RATHER LIBERAL ON THE FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASE
MEASURABLE POPS VCNTY EKN. WILL ALSO HOLD ONTO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES LONGER ON FRIDAY IN THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.

BUT OVERALL...STILL A TRANQUIL MID DECEMBER PATTERN. IN CONTRAST...
WE ISSUED A PNS ON THE 5 YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF THE TURNPIKE TRAPPER.

STILL FINE TUNING OUR MIN/MAX TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ALONG
WITH THE HOURLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ON THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING SOME QPF NORTH OF THE SFC LOW TO POSSIBLE
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH A
WINTRY MIX PCPN SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COULD BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN OVER THE LOWLANDS. CUT BACK SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER
EAST LEAVING THE WESTERN SECTIONS MAINLY DRY.

CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON EASTERN
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM LOOSES ITS
INFLUENCE TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WHEN DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL.

WENT MAINLY WITH THE CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
MONDAY...CREATING PRECIPITATION...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES...COULD BE A
PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS MOUNTAIN ZONES
AND NORTHERN WV. THIS LOW WILL EXIT OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY...TO
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN U.S TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY...AHEAD OF A LOW AND UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW...PW
VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND AN INCH WITH THE SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THIS TIMING...COULD SEE
FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY CHRISTMAS EVE...WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN A SNOWIER/MORE MIXED PRECIP FORECAST THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED. STILL LOOKING LIKE SOME SORT OF WINTER HEADLINES MAY BE
NECESSARY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WITH SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES
IN THE FORECAST...WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD CEILINGS 15 HND TO 25 HND FT MAINLY HTS-CRW ON NORTH WITH
MID DECK LAYERS AT 7 TO 10 THSD FT AGL.  VCNTY BKW...LOWER CLOUDS
SCATTERED INTO TONIGHT...BUT MAY BECOME A CEILINGS AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO BEFORE DARK...THEN SPREAD ALONG THE PKB-CKB-EKN CORRIDOR 00Z TO
06Z...THEN CREEPING FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD HTS-CRW-BKW 06Z TO 12Z
FRIDAY. VSBY MAY BRIEFLY GO INTO 3 TO 5 MILES CKB-EKN CORRIDOR 04Z
TO 15Z FRIDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF THE CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR IN THE
HTS-CRW-EKN CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON COULD VARY...AND LIKEWISE THE
FORMATION AND SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THESE CEILINGS AGAIN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

COVERAGE OF FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING COULD VARY.  VSBY MAY BRIEFLY GO LOWER THAN FORECAST IN THE
CKB-EKN CORRIDOR.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT WINTRY MIX OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KTB











000
FXUS61 KRLX 181940
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
240 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH SE
STATES SATURDAY MAY CLIP THE SOUTH AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL THINKING THE STRATUS UNDER THE TEMP INVERSION WILL TRY TO THIN
THIS AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER NORTH...BUT INCREASING MID DECK AT 7 TO
10 THSD OVER TOP.  SO THE LACK OF DEC SUN SEEMS TO BE WINNING AGAIN
HTS-CRW ON NORTH. NEARING 18Z...THE LOW CLOUDS DID BREAK IN THE
LOGAN TO BECKLEY TO MARLINTON CORRIDOR WITH BRIGHTER CONDITIONS.

WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT 850 MB TEMPS A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THEIR WAKE.  WILL CONTINUE BE
RATHER LIBERAL ON THE FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASE
MEASURABLE POPS VCNTY EKN. WILL ALSO HOLD ONTO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES LONGER ON FRIDAY IN THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.

BUT OVERALL...STILL A TRANQUIL MID DECEMBER PATTERN. IN CONTRAST...
WE ISSUED A PNS ON THE 5 YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF THE TURNPIKE TRAPPER.

STILL FINE TUNING OUR MIN/MAX TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ALONG
WITH THE HOURLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ON THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING SOME QPF NORTH OF THE SFC LOW TO POSSIBLE
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH A
WINTRY MIX PCPN SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COULD BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN OVER THE LOWLANDS. CUT BACK SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER
EAST LEAVING THE WESTERN SECTIONS MAINLY DRY.

CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON EASTERN
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM LOOSES ITS
INFLUENCE TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WHEN DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL.

WENT MAINLY WITH THE CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
MONDAY...CREATING PRECIPITATION...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES...COULD BE A
PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS MOUNTAIN ZONES
AND NORTHERN WV. THIS LOW WILL EXIT OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY...TO
BE FOLLOWED BY STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST...AND ASSOCIATED DEEP UPPER TROUGH. WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY
FLOW...PW VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND AN INCH WITH THE SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THIS TIMING...COULD SEE FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY CHRISTMAS EVE...WHICH WOULD RESULT
IN A SNOWIER/MORE MIXED PRECIP FORECAST THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED.
STILL LOOKING LIKE SOME SORT OF WINTER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WITH SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES IN THE
FORECAST...WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD CEILINGS 15 HND TO 25 HND FT MAINLY HTS-CRW ON NORTH WITH
MID DECK LAYERS AT 7 TO 10 THSD FT AGL.  VCNTY BKW...LOWER CLOUDS
SCATTERED INTO TONIGHT...BUT MAY BECOME A CEILINGS AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO BEFORE DARK...THEN SPREAD ALONG THE PKB-CKB-EKN CORRIDOR 00Z TO
06Z...THEN CREEPING FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD HTS-CRW-BKW 06Z TO 12Z
FRIDAY. VSBY MAY BRIEFLY GO INTO 3 TO 5 MILES CKB-EKN CORRIDOR 04Z
TO 15Z FRIDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF THE CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR IN THE
HTS-CRW-EKN CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON COULD VARY...AND LIKEWISE THE
FORMATION AND SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THESE CEILINGS AGAIN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

COVERAGE OF FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING COULD VARY.  VSBY MAY BRIEFLY GO LOWER THAN FORECAST IN THE
CKB-EKN CORRIDOR.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT WINTRY MIX OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KTB









000
FXUS61 KRLX 181940
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
240 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH SE
STATES SATURDAY MAY CLIP THE SOUTH AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL THINKING THE STRATUS UNDER THE TEMP INVERSION WILL TRY TO THIN
THIS AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER NORTH...BUT INCREASING MID DECK AT 7 TO
10 THSD OVER TOP.  SO THE LACK OF DEC SUN SEEMS TO BE WINNING AGAIN
HTS-CRW ON NORTH. NEARING 18Z...THE LOW CLOUDS DID BREAK IN THE
LOGAN TO BECKLEY TO MARLINTON CORRIDOR WITH BRIGHTER CONDITIONS.

WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT 850 MB TEMPS A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THEIR WAKE.  WILL CONTINUE BE
RATHER LIBERAL ON THE FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASE
MEASURABLE POPS VCNTY EKN. WILL ALSO HOLD ONTO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES LONGER ON FRIDAY IN THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.

BUT OVERALL...STILL A TRANQUIL MID DECEMBER PATTERN. IN CONTRAST...
WE ISSUED A PNS ON THE 5 YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF THE TURNPIKE TRAPPER.

STILL FINE TUNING OUR MIN/MAX TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ALONG
WITH THE HOURLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ON THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING SOME QPF NORTH OF THE SFC LOW TO POSSIBLE
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH A
WINTRY MIX PCPN SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COULD BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN OVER THE LOWLANDS. CUT BACK SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER
EAST LEAVING THE WESTERN SECTIONS MAINLY DRY.

CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON EASTERN
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM LOOSES ITS
INFLUENCE TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WHEN DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL.

WENT MAINLY WITH THE CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
MONDAY...CREATING PRECIPITATION...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES...COULD BE A
PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS MOUNTAIN ZONES
AND NORTHERN WV. THIS LOW WILL EXIT OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY...TO
BE FOLLOWED BY STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST...AND ASSOCIATED DEEP UPPER TROUGH. WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY
FLOW...PW VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND AN INCH WITH THE SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THIS TIMING...COULD SEE FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY CHRISTMAS EVE...WHICH WOULD RESULT
IN A SNOWIER/MORE MIXED PRECIP FORECAST THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED.
STILL LOOKING LIKE SOME SORT OF WINTER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WITH SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES IN THE
FORECAST...WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD CEILINGS 15 HND TO 25 HND FT MAINLY HTS-CRW ON NORTH WITH
MID DECK LAYERS AT 7 TO 10 THSD FT AGL.  VCNTY BKW...LOWER CLOUDS
SCATTERED INTO TONIGHT...BUT MAY BECOME A CEILINGS AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO BEFORE DARK...THEN SPREAD ALONG THE PKB-CKB-EKN CORRIDOR 00Z TO
06Z...THEN CREEPING FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD HTS-CRW-BKW 06Z TO 12Z
FRIDAY. VSBY MAY BRIEFLY GO INTO 3 TO 5 MILES CKB-EKN CORRIDOR 04Z
TO 15Z FRIDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF THE CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR IN THE
HTS-CRW-EKN CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON COULD VARY...AND LIKEWISE THE
FORMATION AND SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THESE CEILINGS AGAIN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

COVERAGE OF FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING COULD VARY.  VSBY MAY BRIEFLY GO LOWER THAN FORECAST IN THE
CKB-EKN CORRIDOR.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT WINTRY MIX OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KTB









000
FXUS61 KRLX 181940
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
240 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH SE
STATES SATURDAY MAY CLIP THE SOUTH AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL THINKING THE STRATUS UNDER THE TEMP INVERSION WILL TRY TO THIN
THIS AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER NORTH...BUT INCREASING MID DECK AT 7 TO
10 THSD OVER TOP.  SO THE LACK OF DEC SUN SEEMS TO BE WINNING AGAIN
HTS-CRW ON NORTH. NEARING 18Z...THE LOW CLOUDS DID BREAK IN THE
LOGAN TO BECKLEY TO MARLINTON CORRIDOR WITH BRIGHTER CONDITIONS.

WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT 850 MB TEMPS A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THEIR WAKE.  WILL CONTINUE BE
RATHER LIBERAL ON THE FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASE
MEASURABLE POPS VCNTY EKN. WILL ALSO HOLD ONTO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES LONGER ON FRIDAY IN THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.

BUT OVERALL...STILL A TRANQUIL MID DECEMBER PATTERN. IN CONTRAST...
WE ISSUED A PNS ON THE 5 YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF THE TURNPIKE TRAPPER.

STILL FINE TUNING OUR MIN/MAX TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ALONG
WITH THE HOURLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ON THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING SOME QPF NORTH OF THE SFC LOW TO POSSIBLE
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH A
WINTRY MIX PCPN SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COULD BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN OVER THE LOWLANDS. CUT BACK SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER
EAST LEAVING THE WESTERN SECTIONS MAINLY DRY.

CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON EASTERN
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM LOOSES ITS
INFLUENCE TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WHEN DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL.

WENT MAINLY WITH THE CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
MONDAY...CREATING PRECIPITATION...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES...COULD BE A
PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS MOUNTAIN ZONES
AND NORTHERN WV. THIS LOW WILL EXIT OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY...TO
BE FOLLOWED BY STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST...AND ASSOCIATED DEEP UPPER TROUGH. WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY
FLOW...PW VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND AN INCH WITH THE SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THIS TIMING...COULD SEE FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY CHRISTMAS EVE...WHICH WOULD RESULT
IN A SNOWIER/MORE MIXED PRECIP FORECAST THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED.
STILL LOOKING LIKE SOME SORT OF WINTER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WITH SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES IN THE
FORECAST...WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD CEILINGS 15 HND TO 25 HND FT MAINLY HTS-CRW ON NORTH WITH
MID DECK LAYERS AT 7 TO 10 THSD FT AGL.  VCNTY BKW...LOWER CLOUDS
SCATTERED INTO TONIGHT...BUT MAY BECOME A CEILINGS AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO BEFORE DARK...THEN SPREAD ALONG THE PKB-CKB-EKN CORRIDOR 00Z TO
06Z...THEN CREEPING FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD HTS-CRW-BKW 06Z TO 12Z
FRIDAY. VSBY MAY BRIEFLY GO INTO 3 TO 5 MILES CKB-EKN CORRIDOR 04Z
TO 15Z FRIDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF THE CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR IN THE
HTS-CRW-EKN CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON COULD VARY...AND LIKEWISE THE
FORMATION AND SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THESE CEILINGS AGAIN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

COVERAGE OF FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING COULD VARY.  VSBY MAY BRIEFLY GO LOWER THAN FORECAST IN THE
CKB-EKN CORRIDOR.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT WINTRY MIX OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KTB









000
FXUS61 KRLX 181940
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
240 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH SE
STATES SATURDAY MAY CLIP THE SOUTH AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL THINKING THE STRATUS UNDER THE TEMP INVERSION WILL TRY TO THIN
THIS AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER NORTH...BUT INCREASING MID DECK AT 7 TO
10 THSD OVER TOP.  SO THE LACK OF DEC SUN SEEMS TO BE WINNING AGAIN
HTS-CRW ON NORTH. NEARING 18Z...THE LOW CLOUDS DID BREAK IN THE
LOGAN TO BECKLEY TO MARLINTON CORRIDOR WITH BRIGHTER CONDITIONS.

WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT 850 MB TEMPS A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THEIR WAKE.  WILL CONTINUE BE
RATHER LIBERAL ON THE FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASE
MEASURABLE POPS VCNTY EKN. WILL ALSO HOLD ONTO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES LONGER ON FRIDAY IN THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.

BUT OVERALL...STILL A TRANQUIL MID DECEMBER PATTERN. IN CONTRAST...
WE ISSUED A PNS ON THE 5 YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF THE TURNPIKE TRAPPER.

STILL FINE TUNING OUR MIN/MAX TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ALONG
WITH THE HOURLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ON THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING SOME QPF NORTH OF THE SFC LOW TO POSSIBLE
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH A
WINTRY MIX PCPN SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COULD BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN OVER THE LOWLANDS. CUT BACK SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER
EAST LEAVING THE WESTERN SECTIONS MAINLY DRY.

CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON EASTERN
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM LOOSES ITS
INFLUENCE TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WHEN DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL.

WENT MAINLY WITH THE CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
MONDAY...CREATING PRECIPITATION...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES...COULD BE A
PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS MOUNTAIN ZONES
AND NORTHERN WV. THIS LOW WILL EXIT OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY...TO
BE FOLLOWED BY STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST...AND ASSOCIATED DEEP UPPER TROUGH. WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY
FLOW...PW VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND AN INCH WITH THE SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THIS TIMING...COULD SEE FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY CHRISTMAS EVE...WHICH WOULD RESULT
IN A SNOWIER/MORE MIXED PRECIP FORECAST THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED.
STILL LOOKING LIKE SOME SORT OF WINTER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WITH SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES IN THE
FORECAST...WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD CEILINGS 15 HND TO 25 HND FT MAINLY HTS-CRW ON NORTH WITH
MID DECK LAYERS AT 7 TO 10 THSD FT AGL.  VCNTY BKW...LOWER CLOUDS
SCATTERED INTO TONIGHT...BUT MAY BECOME A CEILINGS AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO BEFORE DARK...THEN SPREAD ALONG THE PKB-CKB-EKN CORRIDOR 00Z TO
06Z...THEN CREEPING FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD HTS-CRW-BKW 06Z TO 12Z
FRIDAY. VSBY MAY BRIEFLY GO INTO 3 TO 5 MILES CKB-EKN CORRIDOR 04Z
TO 15Z FRIDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF THE CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR IN THE
HTS-CRW-EKN CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON COULD VARY...AND LIKEWISE THE
FORMATION AND SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THESE CEILINGS AGAIN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

COVERAGE OF FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING COULD VARY.  VSBY MAY BRIEFLY GO LOWER THAN FORECAST IN THE
CKB-EKN CORRIDOR.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT WINTRY MIX OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KTB









000
FXUS61 KRLX 181938
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
238 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH SE
STATES SATURDAY MAY CLIP THE SOUTH AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL THINKING THE STRATUS UNDER THE TEMP INVERSION WILL TRY TO THIN
THIS AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER NORTH...BUT INCREASING MID DECK AT 7 TO
10 THSD OVER TOP.  SO THE LACK OF DEC SUN SEEMS TO BE WINNING AGAIN
HTS-CRW ON NORTH. NEARING 18Z...THE LOW CLOUDS DID BREAK IN THE
LOGAN TO BECKLEY TO MARLINTON CORRIDOR WITH BRIGHTER CONDITIONS.

WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT 850 MB TEMPS A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THEIR WAKE.  WILL CONTINUE BE
RATHER LIBERAL ON THE FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASE
MEASURABLE POPS VCNTY EKN. WILL ALSO HOLD ONTO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES LONGER ON FRIDAY IN THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.

BUT OVERALL...STILL A TRANQUIL MID DECEMBER PATTERN. IN CONTRAST...
WE ISSUED A PNS ON THE 5 YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF THE TURNPIKE TRAPPER.

STILL FINE TUNING OUR MIN/MAX TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ALONG
WITH THE HOURLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ON THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING SOME QPF NORTH OF THE SFC LOW TO POSSIBLE
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH A
WINTRY MIX PCPN SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COULD BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN OVER THE LOWLANDS. CUT BACK SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER
EAST LEAVING THE WESTERN SECTIONS MAINLY DRY.

CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON EASTERN
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM LOOSES ITS
INFLUENCE TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WHEN DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL.

WENT MAINLY WITH THE CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GRADUAL DRYING TREND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER WEATHER WILL THEN
TAKE HOLD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MONDAY...COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS TAKE COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT PATHS WITH THIS LOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE ANY
MAJOR EFFECTS WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MID
WEST...THAT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND A COLD FRONT BACK INTO
THE AREA LONG ABOUT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LAST INTO AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WHEN THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS MOSTLY RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ON TUESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD CEILINGS 15 HND TO 25 HND FT MAINLY HTS-CRW ON NORTH WITH
MID DECK LAYERS AT 7 TO 10 THSD FT AGL.  VCNTY BKW...LOWER CLOUDS
SCATTERED INTO TONIGHT...BUT MAY BECOME A CEILINGS AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO BEFORE DARK...THEN SPREAD ALONG THE PKB-CKB-EKN CORRIDOR 00Z TO
06Z...THEN CREEPING FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD HTS-CRW-BKW 06Z TO 12Z
FRIDAY. VSBY MAY BRIEFLY GO INTO 3 TO 5 MILES CKB-EKN CORRIDOR 04Z
TO 15Z FRIDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF THE CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR IN THE
HTS-CRW-EKN CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON COULD VARY...AND LIKEWISE THE
FORMATION AND SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THESE CEILINGS AGAIN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

COVERAGE OF FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING COULD VARY.  VSBY MAY BRIEFLY GO LOWER THAN FORECAST IN THE
CKB-EKN CORRIDOR.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT WINTRY MIX OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KTB








000
FXUS61 KRLX 181938
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
238 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH SE
STATES SATURDAY MAY CLIP THE SOUTH AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL THINKING THE STRATUS UNDER THE TEMP INVERSION WILL TRY TO THIN
THIS AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER NORTH...BUT INCREASING MID DECK AT 7 TO
10 THSD OVER TOP.  SO THE LACK OF DEC SUN SEEMS TO BE WINNING AGAIN
HTS-CRW ON NORTH. NEARING 18Z...THE LOW CLOUDS DID BREAK IN THE
LOGAN TO BECKLEY TO MARLINTON CORRIDOR WITH BRIGHTER CONDITIONS.

WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT 850 MB TEMPS A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THEIR WAKE.  WILL CONTINUE BE
RATHER LIBERAL ON THE FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASE
MEASURABLE POPS VCNTY EKN. WILL ALSO HOLD ONTO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES LONGER ON FRIDAY IN THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.

BUT OVERALL...STILL A TRANQUIL MID DECEMBER PATTERN. IN CONTRAST...
WE ISSUED A PNS ON THE 5 YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF THE TURNPIKE TRAPPER.

STILL FINE TUNING OUR MIN/MAX TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ALONG
WITH THE HOURLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ON THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING SOME QPF NORTH OF THE SFC LOW TO POSSIBLE
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH A
WINTRY MIX PCPN SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COULD BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN OVER THE LOWLANDS. CUT BACK SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER
EAST LEAVING THE WESTERN SECTIONS MAINLY DRY.

CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON EASTERN
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM LOOSES ITS
INFLUENCE TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WHEN DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL.

WENT MAINLY WITH THE CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GRADUAL DRYING TREND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER WEATHER WILL THEN
TAKE HOLD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MONDAY...COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS TAKE COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT PATHS WITH THIS LOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE ANY
MAJOR EFFECTS WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MID
WEST...THAT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND A COLD FRONT BACK INTO
THE AREA LONG ABOUT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LAST INTO AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WHEN THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS MOSTLY RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ON TUESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD CEILINGS 15 HND TO 25 HND FT MAINLY HTS-CRW ON NORTH WITH
MID DECK LAYERS AT 7 TO 10 THSD FT AGL.  VCNTY BKW...LOWER CLOUDS
SCATTERED INTO TONIGHT...BUT MAY BECOME A CEILINGS AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO BEFORE DARK...THEN SPREAD ALONG THE PKB-CKB-EKN CORRIDOR 00Z TO
06Z...THEN CREEPING FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD HTS-CRW-BKW 06Z TO 12Z
FRIDAY. VSBY MAY BRIEFLY GO INTO 3 TO 5 MILES CKB-EKN CORRIDOR 04Z
TO 15Z FRIDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF THE CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR IN THE
HTS-CRW-EKN CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON COULD VARY...AND LIKEWISE THE
FORMATION AND SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THESE CEILINGS AGAIN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

COVERAGE OF FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING COULD VARY.  VSBY MAY BRIEFLY GO LOWER THAN FORECAST IN THE
CKB-EKN CORRIDOR.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT WINTRY MIX OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KTB









000
FXUS61 KRLX 181801
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1255 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH SE
STATES SATURDAY MAY CLIP THE SOUTH AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL THINKING THE STRATUS UNDER THE TEMP INVERSION WILL TRY TO THIN
THIS AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER NORTH...BUT INCREASING MID DECK AT 7 TO
10 THSD OVER TOP.  SO THE LACK OF DEC SUN SEEMS TO BE WINNING AGAIN
HTS-CRW ON NORTH. NEARING 18Z...THE LOW CLOUDS DID BREAK IN THE
LOGAN TO BECKLEY TO MARLINTON CORRIDOR WITH BRIGHTER CONDITIONS.

WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT 850 MB TEMPS A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THEIR WAKE.  WILL CONTINUE BE
RATHER LIBERAL ON THE FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASE
MEASURABLE POPS VCNTY EKN. WILL ALSO HOLD ONTO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES LONGER ON FRIDAY IN THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.

BUT OVERALL...STILL A TRANQUIL MID DECEMBER PATTERN. IN CONTRAST...
WE ISSUED A PNS ON THE 5 YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF THE TURNPIKE TRAPPER.

STILL FINE TUNING OUR MIN/MAX TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ALONG
WITH THE HOURLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN OPEN WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS TN-KY-NC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATEST 00Z
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WITH
TRACK OF MAIN DYNAMICS OF THE WAVE...WITH NAM12 BACKING OFF THE
MOST.

FOR POPS...FOLLOWED LATEST SREF TRENDS WITH AN ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE
GFS AND ECMWF. MODELS HAVE TRENDED BEST FORCING MECHANISMS AND
MOISTURE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...KEPT BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP FURTHER
SOUTH OF KCRW...AND OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. BACKED OFF A LITTLE
FOR THE ONSET OF PRECIP FRI NIGHT AND SAT. OVERALL THIS LEADS TO
CUTTING POPS ACROSS CENTRAL WV...AND KEEPING BEST CHANCES ALONG THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA.

WENT WITH BC BLEND FOR TEMPS WITH A NOD TOWARD INHERITED VALUES
RESULTING IN SLIGHT CHANGES IN MAX MIN TEMPS.  PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A
MIXED BAG AT NIGHT BASED ON SOUNDING PROFILES...WITH MAINLY RAIN
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUAL DRYING TREND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER WEATHER WILL THEN
TAKE HOLD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MONDAY...COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS TAKE COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT PATHS WITH THIS LOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE ANY
MAJOR EFFECTS WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MID
WEST...THAT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND A COLD FRONT BACK INTO
THE AREA LONG ABOUT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LAST INTO AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WHEN THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS MOSTLY RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ON TUESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD CEILINGS 15 HND TO 25 HND FT MAINLY HTS-CRW ON NORTH WITH
MID DECK LAYERS AT 7 TO 10 THSD FT AGL.  VCNTY BKW...LOWER CLOUDS
SCATTERED INTO TONIGHT...BUT MAY BECOME A CEILINGS AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO BEFORE DARK...THEN SPREAD ALONG THE PKB-CKB-EKN CORRIDOR 00Z TO
06Z...THEN CREEPING FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD HTS-CRW-BKW 06Z TO 12Z
FRIDAY. VSBY MAY BRIEFLY GO INTO 3 TO 5 MILES CKB-EKN CORRIDOR 04Z
TO 15Z FRIDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF THE CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR IN THE
HTS-CRW-EKN CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON COULD VARY...AND LIKEWISE THE
FORMATION AND SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THESE CEILINGS AGAIN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

COVERAGE OF FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING COULD VARY.  VSBY MAY BRIEFLY GO LOWER THAN FORECAST IN THE
CKB-EKN CORRIDOR.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT WINTRY MIX OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KTB










000
FXUS61 KRLX 181801
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1255 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH SE
STATES SATURDAY MAY CLIP THE SOUTH AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL THINKING THE STRATUS UNDER THE TEMP INVERSION WILL TRY TO THIN
THIS AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER NORTH...BUT INCREASING MID DECK AT 7 TO
10 THSD OVER TOP.  SO THE LACK OF DEC SUN SEEMS TO BE WINNING AGAIN
HTS-CRW ON NORTH. NEARING 18Z...THE LOW CLOUDS DID BREAK IN THE
LOGAN TO BECKLEY TO MARLINTON CORRIDOR WITH BRIGHTER CONDITIONS.

WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT 850 MB TEMPS A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THEIR WAKE.  WILL CONTINUE BE
RATHER LIBERAL ON THE FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASE
MEASURABLE POPS VCNTY EKN. WILL ALSO HOLD ONTO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES LONGER ON FRIDAY IN THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.

BUT OVERALL...STILL A TRANQUIL MID DECEMBER PATTERN. IN CONTRAST...
WE ISSUED A PNS ON THE 5 YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF THE TURNPIKE TRAPPER.

STILL FINE TUNING OUR MIN/MAX TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ALONG
WITH THE HOURLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN OPEN WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS TN-KY-NC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATEST 00Z
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WITH
TRACK OF MAIN DYNAMICS OF THE WAVE...WITH NAM12 BACKING OFF THE
MOST.

FOR POPS...FOLLOWED LATEST SREF TRENDS WITH AN ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE
GFS AND ECMWF. MODELS HAVE TRENDED BEST FORCING MECHANISMS AND
MOISTURE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...KEPT BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP FURTHER
SOUTH OF KCRW...AND OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. BACKED OFF A LITTLE
FOR THE ONSET OF PRECIP FRI NIGHT AND SAT. OVERALL THIS LEADS TO
CUTTING POPS ACROSS CENTRAL WV...AND KEEPING BEST CHANCES ALONG THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA.

WENT WITH BC BLEND FOR TEMPS WITH A NOD TOWARD INHERITED VALUES
RESULTING IN SLIGHT CHANGES IN MAX MIN TEMPS.  PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A
MIXED BAG AT NIGHT BASED ON SOUNDING PROFILES...WITH MAINLY RAIN
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUAL DRYING TREND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER WEATHER WILL THEN
TAKE HOLD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MONDAY...COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS TAKE COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT PATHS WITH THIS LOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE ANY
MAJOR EFFECTS WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MID
WEST...THAT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND A COLD FRONT BACK INTO
THE AREA LONG ABOUT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LAST INTO AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WHEN THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS MOSTLY RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ON TUESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD CEILINGS 15 HND TO 25 HND FT MAINLY HTS-CRW ON NORTH WITH
MID DECK LAYERS AT 7 TO 10 THSD FT AGL.  VCNTY BKW...LOWER CLOUDS
SCATTERED INTO TONIGHT...BUT MAY BECOME A CEILINGS AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO BEFORE DARK...THEN SPREAD ALONG THE PKB-CKB-EKN CORRIDOR 00Z TO
06Z...THEN CREEPING FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD HTS-CRW-BKW 06Z TO 12Z
FRIDAY. VSBY MAY BRIEFLY GO INTO 3 TO 5 MILES CKB-EKN CORRIDOR 04Z
TO 15Z FRIDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF THE CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR IN THE
HTS-CRW-EKN CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON COULD VARY...AND LIKEWISE THE
FORMATION AND SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THESE CEILINGS AGAIN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

COVERAGE OF FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING COULD VARY.  VSBY MAY BRIEFLY GO LOWER THAN FORECAST IN THE
CKB-EKN CORRIDOR.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT WINTRY MIX OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KTB











000
FXUS61 KRLX 181412
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
904 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE
WEEKEND CLIPS THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS UNDER INVERSION CONTINUE FROM BKW ON N-W AT 14Z.
STILL THINKING THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL THIN...YIELDING THE MID
CLOUDS ABOVE.  SO STILL HOPING FOR SOME BREAKS OF SUN OR AT LEAST A
BIT BRIGHTER SKY IN THE SOUTH. IR IMAGERY INDICATED THE MID CLOUDS
WARMED AS THEY CROSSED SRN WV THIS MORNING.  NEXT IMPULSE SHOULD
INCREASE MID CLOUDS OVER THE LOW DECK ACROSS OHIO THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO NRN WV TONIGHT.  WILL BE A BIT MORE LIBERAL WITH THE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES INTO FRIDAY MORNING.  BUT OVERALL STILL A
TRANQUIL MID DECEMBER PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN OPEN WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS TN-KY-NC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATEST 00Z
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WITH
TRACK OF MAIN DYNAMICS OF THE WAVE...WITH NAM12 BACKING OFF THE
MOST.

FOR POPS...FOLLOWED LATEST SREF TRENDS WITH AN ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE
GFS AND ECMWF. MODELS HAVE TRENDED BEST FORCING MECHANISMS AND
MOISTURE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...KEPT BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP FURTHER
SOUTH OF KCRW...AND OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. BACKED OFF A LITTLE
FOR THE ONSET OF PRECIP FRI NIGHT AND SAT. OVERALL THIS LEADS TO
CUTTING POPS ACROSS CENTRAL WV...AND KEEPING BEST CHANCES ALONG THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA.

WENT WITH BC BLEND FOR TEMPS WITH A NOD TOWARD INHERITED VALUES
RESULTING IN SLIGHT CHANGES IN MAX MIN TEMPS.  PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A
MIXED BAG AT NIGHT BASED ON SOUNDING PROFILES...WITH MAINLY RAIN
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUAL DRYING TREND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER WEATHER WILL THEN
TAKE HOLD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MONDAY...COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS TAKE COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT PATHS WITH THIS LOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE ANY
MAJOR EFFECTS WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MID
WEST...THAT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND A COLD FRONT BACK INTO
THE AREA LONG ABOUT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LAST INTO AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WHEN THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS MOSTLY RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ON TUESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MIXING AFTER DAWN TODAY FINALLY BRINGS TERMINALS OUT OF THE MVFR
CEILINGS...AND SHOULD HAVE THE BULK OF THE DAY VFR AFTER 16Z. HAVE
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BRINGING CEILINGS ABOVE 7KFT AFTER
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DISSIPATES FROM THE SHEARING SYSTEM TO THE
WEST.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER INVERSION TRAPPING MOISTURE AGAIN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS LATER TONIGHT AFTER 06Z FRIDAY. THE
START TIME FOR THIS IN THE TAFS HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK A FEW HOURS
FROM THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE. THE GUIDANCE IS NOT CLEAR ON THIS
FORMATION AND LARGELY USED THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN
IDENTIFICATION OF THIS MOIST LAYER.

VISIBILITIES VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS
ASPECT OF THE FORECAST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR IN THE
MIXING HOURS TODAY COULD VARY. MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT MAY NOT
MATERIALIZE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/26
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...26










000
FXUS61 KRLX 181046
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
546 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DESPITE CLOUD COVER. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR
THE WEEKEND CLIPS THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR A DEFORMATION ZONE TRAVERSING
THE NORTHERN ZONES AFTER 21Z THIS EVENING BASED ON THE HRRR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYSTEM TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY SHEAR OUT PRIOR TO
ENTERING THE OHIO VALLEY...HOWEVER CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
THE FORECAST TODAY. AS WE FINALLY MIX OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER...MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. ALLOWED FOR A FEW
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY BY NOT PEGGING THE GRIDS
AT 100 PERCENT COVERAGE...BUT IT BKN-OVC.

NAM BRINGS IN NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS FROM THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES IN OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT.
THERMAL TROUGH IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...BUT OUTPUT FROM THE SREF
PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURING PRECIPITATION AND THE AFOREMENTIONED NAM
WARRANTS LOW END POPS COMING BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.

WILL NOT SEE MUCH OF REBOUND IN THE TEMPERATURES FROM THE MORNING
LOW TODAY. USED A BLEND OF THE CONSENSUS MOS AND MET MOS NUMBERS
TODAY WHICH WERE GENERALLY THE COLDER SOLUTIONS. DROPPING BELOW
FREEZING CWA WIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN OPEN WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS TN-KY-NC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATEST 00Z
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WITH
TRACK OF MAIN DYNAMICS OF THE WAVE...WITH NAM12 BACKING OFF THE
MOST.

FOR POPS...FOLLOWED LATEST SREF TRENDS WITH AN ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE
GFS AND ECMWF. MODELS HAVE TRENDED BEST FORCING MECHANISMS AND
MOISTURE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...KEPT BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP FURTHER
SOUTH OF KCRW...AND OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. BACKED OFF A LITTLE
FOR THE ONSET OF PRECIP FRI NIGHT AND SAT. OVERALL THIS LEADS TO
CUTTING POPS ACROSS CENTRAL WV...AND KEEPING BEST CHANCES ALONG THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA.

WENT WITH BC BLEND FOR TEMPS WITH A NOD TOWARD INHERITED VALUES
RESULTING IN SLIGHT CHANGES IN MAX MIN TEMPS.  PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A
MIXED BAG AT NIGHT BASED ON SOUNDING PROFILES...WITH MAINLY RAIN
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUAL DRYING TREND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER WEATHER WILL THEN
TAKE HOLD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MONDAY...COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS TAKE COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT PATHS WITH THIS LOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE ANY
MAJOR EFFECTS WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MID
WEST...THAT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND A COLD FRONT BACK INTO
THE AREA LONG ABOUT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LAST INTO AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WHEN THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS MOSTLY RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ON TUESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MIXING AFTER DAWN TODAY FINALLY BRINGS TERMINALS OUT OF THE MVFR
CEILINGS...AND SHOULD HAVE THE BULK OF THE DAY VFR AFTER 16Z. HAVE
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BRINGING CEILINGS ABOVE 7KFT AFTER
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DISSIPATES FROM THE SHEARING SYSTEM TO THE
WEST.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER INVERSION TRAPPING MOISTURE AGAIN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS LATER TONIGHT AFTER 06Z FRIDAY. THE
START TIME FOR THIS IN THE TAFS HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK A FEW HOURS
FROM THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE. THE GUIDANCE IS NOT CLEAR ON THIS
FORMATION AND LARGELY USED THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN
IDENTIFICATION OF THIS MOIST LAYER.

VISIBILITIES VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS
ASPECT OF THE FORECAST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR IN THE
MIXING HOURS TODAY COULD VARY. MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT MAY NOT
MATERIALIZE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EST 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS61 KRLX 181046
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
546 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DESPITE CLOUD COVER. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR
THE WEEKEND CLIPS THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR A DEFORMATION ZONE TRAVERSING
THE NORTHERN ZONES AFTER 21Z THIS EVENING BASED ON THE HRRR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYSTEM TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY SHEAR OUT PRIOR TO
ENTERING THE OHIO VALLEY...HOWEVER CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
THE FORECAST TODAY. AS WE FINALLY MIX OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER...MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. ALLOWED FOR A FEW
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY BY NOT PEGGING THE GRIDS
AT 100 PERCENT COVERAGE...BUT IT BKN-OVC.

NAM BRINGS IN NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS FROM THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES IN OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT.
THERMAL TROUGH IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...BUT OUTPUT FROM THE SREF
PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURING PRECIPITATION AND THE AFOREMENTIONED NAM
WARRANTS LOW END POPS COMING BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.

WILL NOT SEE MUCH OF REBOUND IN THE TEMPERATURES FROM THE MORNING
LOW TODAY. USED A BLEND OF THE CONSENSUS MOS AND MET MOS NUMBERS
TODAY WHICH WERE GENERALLY THE COLDER SOLUTIONS. DROPPING BELOW
FREEZING CWA WIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN OPEN WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS TN-KY-NC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATEST 00Z
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WITH
TRACK OF MAIN DYNAMICS OF THE WAVE...WITH NAM12 BACKING OFF THE
MOST.

FOR POPS...FOLLOWED LATEST SREF TRENDS WITH AN ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE
GFS AND ECMWF. MODELS HAVE TRENDED BEST FORCING MECHANISMS AND
MOISTURE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...KEPT BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP FURTHER
SOUTH OF KCRW...AND OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. BACKED OFF A LITTLE
FOR THE ONSET OF PRECIP FRI NIGHT AND SAT. OVERALL THIS LEADS TO
CUTTING POPS ACROSS CENTRAL WV...AND KEEPING BEST CHANCES ALONG THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA.

WENT WITH BC BLEND FOR TEMPS WITH A NOD TOWARD INHERITED VALUES
RESULTING IN SLIGHT CHANGES IN MAX MIN TEMPS.  PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A
MIXED BAG AT NIGHT BASED ON SOUNDING PROFILES...WITH MAINLY RAIN
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUAL DRYING TREND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER WEATHER WILL THEN
TAKE HOLD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MONDAY...COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS TAKE COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT PATHS WITH THIS LOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE ANY
MAJOR EFFECTS WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MID
WEST...THAT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND A COLD FRONT BACK INTO
THE AREA LONG ABOUT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LAST INTO AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WHEN THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS MOSTLY RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ON TUESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MIXING AFTER DAWN TODAY FINALLY BRINGS TERMINALS OUT OF THE MVFR
CEILINGS...AND SHOULD HAVE THE BULK OF THE DAY VFR AFTER 16Z. HAVE
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BRINGING CEILINGS ABOVE 7KFT AFTER
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DISSIPATES FROM THE SHEARING SYSTEM TO THE
WEST.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER INVERSION TRAPPING MOISTURE AGAIN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS LATER TONIGHT AFTER 06Z FRIDAY. THE
START TIME FOR THIS IN THE TAFS HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK A FEW HOURS
FROM THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE. THE GUIDANCE IS NOT CLEAR ON THIS
FORMATION AND LARGELY USED THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN
IDENTIFICATION OF THIS MOIST LAYER.

VISIBILITIES VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS
ASPECT OF THE FORECAST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR IN THE
MIXING HOURS TODAY COULD VARY. MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT MAY NOT
MATERIALIZE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EST 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...26










000
FXUS61 KRLX 180857
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
357 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DESPITE CLOUD COVER. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR
THE WEEKEND CLIPS THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SYSTEM TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY SHEAR OUT PRIOR TO
ENTERING THE OHIO VALLEY...HOWEVER CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
THE FORECAST TODAY. AS WE FINALLY MIX OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER...MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. ALLOWED FOR A FEW
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY BY NOT PEGGING THE GRIDS
AT 100 PERCENT COVERAGE...BUT IT BKN-OVC.

NAM BRINGS IN NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS FROM THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES IN OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT.
THERMAL TROUGH IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...BUT OUTPUT FROM THE SREF
PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURING PRECIPITATION AND THE AFOREMENTIONED NAM
WARRANTS LOW END POPS COMING BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.

WILL NOT SEE MUCH OF REBOUND IN THE TEMPERATURES FROM THE MORNING
LOW TODAY. USED A BLEND OF THE CONSENSUS MOS AND MET MOS NUMBERS
TODAY WHICH WERE GENERALLY THE COLDER SOLUTIONS. DROPPING BELOW
FREEZING CWA WIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN OPEN WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS TN-KY-NC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATEST 00Z
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WITH
TRACK OF MAIN DYNAMICS OF THE WAVE...WITH NAM12 BACKING OFF THE
MOST.

FOR POPS...FOLLOWED LATEST SREF TRENDS WITH AN ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE
GFS AND ECMWF. MODELS HAVE TRENDED BEST FORCING MECHANISMS AND
MOISTURE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...KEPT BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP FURTHER
SOUTH OF KCRW...AND OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. BACKED OFF A LITTLE
FOR THE ONSET OF PRECIP FRI NIGHT AND SAT. OVERALL THIS LEADS TO
CUTTING POPS ACROSS CENTRAL WV...AND KEEPING BEST CHANCES ALONG THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA.

WENT WITH BC BLEND FOR TEMPS WITH A NOD TOWARD INHERITED VALUES
RESULTING IN SLIGHT CHANGES IN MAX MIN TEMPS.  PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A
MIXED BAG AT NIGHT BASED ON SOUNDING PROFILES...WITH MAINLY RAIN
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUAL DRYING TREND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER WEATHER WILL THEN
TAKE HOLD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MONDAY...COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS TAKE COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT PATHS WITH THIS LOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE ANY
MAJOR EFFECTS WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MID
WEST...THAT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND A COLD FRONT BACK INTO
THE AREA LONG ABOUT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LAST INTO AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WHEN THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS MOSTLY RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ON TUESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MIXING AFTER DAWN TODAY FINALLY BRINGS TERMINALS OUT OF THE MVFR
CEILINGS...AND SHOULD HAVE THE BULK OF THE DAY VFR. MID AND UPPER
CLOUDS FROM A SHEARING SYSTEM TO THE WEST KEEPS THE SKY BKN-OVC
ABOVE 7KFT...AND HAVE MVFR CEILINGS RETURNING AGAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. THIS IS THANKS TO A RE EMERGENCE OF LOW LEVEL
FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION SETTING UP ONCE
AGAIN.

LARGELY RELIED ON THE MET GUIDANCE AGAIN FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CLEARING TONIGHT COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
SOUTH. TIMING OF CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR IN THE MIXING HOURS
TODAY COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         THU 12/18/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS61 KRLX 180857
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
357 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DESPITE CLOUD COVER. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR
THE WEEKEND CLIPS THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SYSTEM TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY SHEAR OUT PRIOR TO
ENTERING THE OHIO VALLEY...HOWEVER CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
THE FORECAST TODAY. AS WE FINALLY MIX OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER...MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. ALLOWED FOR A FEW
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY BY NOT PEGGING THE GRIDS
AT 100 PERCENT COVERAGE...BUT IT BKN-OVC.

NAM BRINGS IN NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS FROM THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES IN OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT.
THERMAL TROUGH IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...BUT OUTPUT FROM THE SREF
PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURING PRECIPITATION AND THE AFOREMENTIONED NAM
WARRANTS LOW END POPS COMING BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.

WILL NOT SEE MUCH OF REBOUND IN THE TEMPERATURES FROM THE MORNING
LOW TODAY. USED A BLEND OF THE CONSENSUS MOS AND MET MOS NUMBERS
TODAY WHICH WERE GENERALLY THE COLDER SOLUTIONS. DROPPING BELOW
FREEZING CWA WIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN OPEN WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS TN-KY-NC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATEST 00Z
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WITH
TRACK OF MAIN DYNAMICS OF THE WAVE...WITH NAM12 BACKING OFF THE
MOST.

FOR POPS...FOLLOWED LATEST SREF TRENDS WITH AN ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE
GFS AND ECMWF. MODELS HAVE TRENDED BEST FORCING MECHANISMS AND
MOISTURE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...KEPT BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP FURTHER
SOUTH OF KCRW...AND OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. BACKED OFF A LITTLE
FOR THE ONSET OF PRECIP FRI NIGHT AND SAT. OVERALL THIS LEADS TO
CUTTING POPS ACROSS CENTRAL WV...AND KEEPING BEST CHANCES ALONG THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA.

WENT WITH BC BLEND FOR TEMPS WITH A NOD TOWARD INHERITED VALUES
RESULTING IN SLIGHT CHANGES IN MAX MIN TEMPS.  PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A
MIXED BAG AT NIGHT BASED ON SOUNDING PROFILES...WITH MAINLY RAIN
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUAL DRYING TREND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER WEATHER WILL THEN
TAKE HOLD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MONDAY...COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS TAKE COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT PATHS WITH THIS LOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE ANY
MAJOR EFFECTS WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MID
WEST...THAT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND A COLD FRONT BACK INTO
THE AREA LONG ABOUT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LAST INTO AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WHEN THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS MOSTLY RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ON TUESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MIXING AFTER DAWN TODAY FINALLY BRINGS TERMINALS OUT OF THE MVFR
CEILINGS...AND SHOULD HAVE THE BULK OF THE DAY VFR. MID AND UPPER
CLOUDS FROM A SHEARING SYSTEM TO THE WEST KEEPS THE SKY BKN-OVC
ABOVE 7KFT...AND HAVE MVFR CEILINGS RETURNING AGAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. THIS IS THANKS TO A RE EMERGENCE OF LOW LEVEL
FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION SETTING UP ONCE
AGAIN.

LARGELY RELIED ON THE MET GUIDANCE AGAIN FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CLEARING TONIGHT COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
SOUTH. TIMING OF CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR IN THE MIXING HOURS
TODAY COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         THU 12/18/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...26








000
FXUS61 KRLX 180857
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
357 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DESPITE CLOUD COVER. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR
THE WEEKEND CLIPS THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SYSTEM TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY SHEAR OUT PRIOR TO
ENTERING THE OHIO VALLEY...HOWEVER CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
THE FORECAST TODAY. AS WE FINALLY MIX OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER...MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. ALLOWED FOR A FEW
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY BY NOT PEGGING THE GRIDS
AT 100 PERCENT COVERAGE...BUT IT BKN-OVC.

NAM BRINGS IN NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS FROM THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES IN OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT.
THERMAL TROUGH IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...BUT OUTPUT FROM THE SREF
PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURING PRECIPITATION AND THE AFOREMENTIONED NAM
WARRANTS LOW END POPS COMING BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.

WILL NOT SEE MUCH OF REBOUND IN THE TEMPERATURES FROM THE MORNING
LOW TODAY. USED A BLEND OF THE CONSENSUS MOS AND MET MOS NUMBERS
TODAY WHICH WERE GENERALLY THE COLDER SOLUTIONS. DROPPING BELOW
FREEZING CWA WIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN OPEN WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS TN-KY-NC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATEST 00Z
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WITH
TRACK OF MAIN DYNAMICS OF THE WAVE...WITH NAM12 BACKING OFF THE
MOST.

FOR POPS...FOLLOWED LATEST SREF TRENDS WITH AN ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE
GFS AND ECMWF. MODELS HAVE TRENDED BEST FORCING MECHANISMS AND
MOISTURE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...KEPT BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP FURTHER
SOUTH OF KCRW...AND OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. BACKED OFF A LITTLE
FOR THE ONSET OF PRECIP FRI NIGHT AND SAT. OVERALL THIS LEADS TO
CUTTING POPS ACROSS CENTRAL WV...AND KEEPING BEST CHANCES ALONG THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA.

WENT WITH BC BLEND FOR TEMPS WITH A NOD TOWARD INHERITED VALUES
RESULTING IN SLIGHT CHANGES IN MAX MIN TEMPS.  PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A
MIXED BAG AT NIGHT BASED ON SOUNDING PROFILES...WITH MAINLY RAIN
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUAL DRYING TREND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER WEATHER WILL THEN
TAKE HOLD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MONDAY...COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS TAKE COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT PATHS WITH THIS LOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE ANY
MAJOR EFFECTS WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MID
WEST...THAT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND A COLD FRONT BACK INTO
THE AREA LONG ABOUT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LAST INTO AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WHEN THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS MOSTLY RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ON TUESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MIXING AFTER DAWN TODAY FINALLY BRINGS TERMINALS OUT OF THE MVFR
CEILINGS...AND SHOULD HAVE THE BULK OF THE DAY VFR. MID AND UPPER
CLOUDS FROM A SHEARING SYSTEM TO THE WEST KEEPS THE SKY BKN-OVC
ABOVE 7KFT...AND HAVE MVFR CEILINGS RETURNING AGAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. THIS IS THANKS TO A RE EMERGENCE OF LOW LEVEL
FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION SETTING UP ONCE
AGAIN.

LARGELY RELIED ON THE MET GUIDANCE AGAIN FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CLEARING TONIGHT COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
SOUTH. TIMING OF CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR IN THE MIXING HOURS
TODAY COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         THU 12/18/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS61 KRLX 180857
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
357 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DESPITE CLOUD COVER. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR
THE WEEKEND CLIPS THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SYSTEM TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY SHEAR OUT PRIOR TO
ENTERING THE OHIO VALLEY...HOWEVER CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
THE FORECAST TODAY. AS WE FINALLY MIX OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER...MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. ALLOWED FOR A FEW
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY BY NOT PEGGING THE GRIDS
AT 100 PERCENT COVERAGE...BUT IT BKN-OVC.

NAM BRINGS IN NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS FROM THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES IN OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT.
THERMAL TROUGH IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...BUT OUTPUT FROM THE SREF
PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURING PRECIPITATION AND THE AFOREMENTIONED NAM
WARRANTS LOW END POPS COMING BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.

WILL NOT SEE MUCH OF REBOUND IN THE TEMPERATURES FROM THE MORNING
LOW TODAY. USED A BLEND OF THE CONSENSUS MOS AND MET MOS NUMBERS
TODAY WHICH WERE GENERALLY THE COLDER SOLUTIONS. DROPPING BELOW
FREEZING CWA WIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN OPEN WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS TN-KY-NC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATEST 00Z
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WITH
TRACK OF MAIN DYNAMICS OF THE WAVE...WITH NAM12 BACKING OFF THE
MOST.

FOR POPS...FOLLOWED LATEST SREF TRENDS WITH AN ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE
GFS AND ECMWF. MODELS HAVE TRENDED BEST FORCING MECHANISMS AND
MOISTURE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...KEPT BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP FURTHER
SOUTH OF KCRW...AND OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. BACKED OFF A LITTLE
FOR THE ONSET OF PRECIP FRI NIGHT AND SAT. OVERALL THIS LEADS TO
CUTTING POPS ACROSS CENTRAL WV...AND KEEPING BEST CHANCES ALONG THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA.

WENT WITH BC BLEND FOR TEMPS WITH A NOD TOWARD INHERITED VALUES
RESULTING IN SLIGHT CHANGES IN MAX MIN TEMPS.  PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A
MIXED BAG AT NIGHT BASED ON SOUNDING PROFILES...WITH MAINLY RAIN
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUAL DRYING TREND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER WEATHER WILL THEN
TAKE HOLD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MONDAY...COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS TAKE COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT PATHS WITH THIS LOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE ANY
MAJOR EFFECTS WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MID
WEST...THAT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND A COLD FRONT BACK INTO
THE AREA LONG ABOUT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LAST INTO AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WHEN THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS MOSTLY RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ON TUESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MIXING AFTER DAWN TODAY FINALLY BRINGS TERMINALS OUT OF THE MVFR
CEILINGS...AND SHOULD HAVE THE BULK OF THE DAY VFR. MID AND UPPER
CLOUDS FROM A SHEARING SYSTEM TO THE WEST KEEPS THE SKY BKN-OVC
ABOVE 7KFT...AND HAVE MVFR CEILINGS RETURNING AGAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. THIS IS THANKS TO A RE EMERGENCE OF LOW LEVEL
FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION SETTING UP ONCE
AGAIN.

LARGELY RELIED ON THE MET GUIDANCE AGAIN FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CLEARING TONIGHT COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
SOUTH. TIMING OF CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR IN THE MIXING HOURS
TODAY COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         THU 12/18/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...26








000
FXUS61 KRLX 180544
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1244 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THINS INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
920 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT GET COLDER...A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

THERE ARE "NEVER ANY ALWAYS" IN THIS BUSINESS.  DESPITE A PATTERN
SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION...CONCERNED CLOUDS MAY BREAK UP SOONER...ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE THINNING LOW CLOUDS ON
SATELLITE IMAGE S OF CRW THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS LEADS TO
MANY DIFFICULTIES FOR TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND THUS TEMPERATURES ARE A
MAJOR ISSUE...BUT FOR THE GENERAL PUBLIC IT IS NOT A MEMORABLE
SUBJECT. WILL LIKELY GO WITH MORE PARTIAL CLEARING IN SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND A BIT COLDER TONIGHT IN OUR AFTERNOON UPDATE. OF
COURSE...EAST OF MOUNTAIN CRESTS...THE USUAL CLEARING IN POCAHONTAS
COUNTY TOO.

WILL KEEP IT DRY THURSDAY. THOUGH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS
INCREASING...COULD BE DETECTED BY RADAR.  MID LEVEL TROF AXIS
APPROACHES OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES BY 00Z FRIDAY.

AS A SIDE NOTE...MADE A FACEBOOK POST TODAY ABOUT THE 25TH
ANNIVERSARY OF THE PRE CHRISTMAS COLD WAVE OF DECEMBER 1989.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES ON SATURDAY. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...MODELS BRING
CONSIDERABLE FORCING IN FORM OF A OPEN WAVE AT H500 AND ASSOCIATED
VORTICITY MAXIMA PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS TN...KY AND
VA. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT WV SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WINTRY MIX PRECIPITATION. FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET...RAIN AND/OR SNOW COULD BE POSSIBLE.

THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WHILE THE GFS...CMC...AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM BRING
PERIODS OF PCPN IN THEIR QPF FIELDS OVER THE WV AND VA. DECIDED TO
KEEP LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM PER PERSISTENCE
AMONG THE MODEL CONSENSUS. CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW...AND
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST MIGHT BE POSSIBLE DURING THE UPCOMING
DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUAL DRYING TREND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER WEATHER WILL THEN
TAKE HOLD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MONDAY...COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS TAKE COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT PATHS WITH THIS LOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE ANY
MAJOR EFFECTS WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MID
WEST...THAT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND A COLD FRONT BACK INTO
THE AREA LONG ABOUT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LAST INTO AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WHEN THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS MOSTLY RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ON TUESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MIXING AFTER DAWN TODAY FINALLY BRINGS TERMINALS OUT OF THE MVFR
CEILINGS...AND SHOULD HAVE THE BULK OF THE DAY VFR. MID AND UPPER
CLOUDS FROM A SHEARING SYSTEM TO THE WEST KEEPS THE SKY BKN-OVC
ABOVE 7KFT...AND HAVE MVFR CEILINGS RETURNING AGAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. THIS IS THANKS TO A RE EMERGENCE OF LOW LEVEL
FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION SETTING UP ONCE
AGAIN.

LARGELY RELIED ON THE MET GUIDANCE AGAIN FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CLEARING TONIGHT COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
SOUTH. TIMING OF CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR IN THE MIXING HOURS
TODAY COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   THU 12/18/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    M    M

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB/MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS61 KRLX 180544
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1244 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THINS INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
920 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT GET COLDER...A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

THERE ARE "NEVER ANY ALWAYS" IN THIS BUSINESS.  DESPITE A PATTERN
SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION...CONCERNED CLOUDS MAY BREAK UP SOONER...ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE THINNING LOW CLOUDS ON
SATELLITE IMAGE S OF CRW THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS LEADS TO
MANY DIFFICULTIES FOR TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND THUS TEMPERATURES ARE A
MAJOR ISSUE...BUT FOR THE GENERAL PUBLIC IT IS NOT A MEMORABLE
SUBJECT. WILL LIKELY GO WITH MORE PARTIAL CLEARING IN SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND A BIT COLDER TONIGHT IN OUR AFTERNOON UPDATE. OF
COURSE...EAST OF MOUNTAIN CRESTS...THE USUAL CLEARING IN POCAHONTAS
COUNTY TOO.

WILL KEEP IT DRY THURSDAY. THOUGH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS
INCREASING...COULD BE DETECTED BY RADAR.  MID LEVEL TROF AXIS
APPROACHES OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES BY 00Z FRIDAY.

AS A SIDE NOTE...MADE A FACEBOOK POST TODAY ABOUT THE 25TH
ANNIVERSARY OF THE PRE CHRISTMAS COLD WAVE OF DECEMBER 1989.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES ON SATURDAY. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...MODELS BRING
CONSIDERABLE FORCING IN FORM OF A OPEN WAVE AT H500 AND ASSOCIATED
VORTICITY MAXIMA PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS TN...KY AND
VA. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT WV SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WINTRY MIX PRECIPITATION. FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET...RAIN AND/OR SNOW COULD BE POSSIBLE.

THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WHILE THE GFS...CMC...AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM BRING
PERIODS OF PCPN IN THEIR QPF FIELDS OVER THE WV AND VA. DECIDED TO
KEEP LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM PER PERSISTENCE
AMONG THE MODEL CONSENSUS. CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW...AND
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST MIGHT BE POSSIBLE DURING THE UPCOMING
DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUAL DRYING TREND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER WEATHER WILL THEN
TAKE HOLD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MONDAY...COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS TAKE COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT PATHS WITH THIS LOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE ANY
MAJOR EFFECTS WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MID
WEST...THAT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND A COLD FRONT BACK INTO
THE AREA LONG ABOUT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LAST INTO AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WHEN THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS MOSTLY RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ON TUESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MIXING AFTER DAWN TODAY FINALLY BRINGS TERMINALS OUT OF THE MVFR
CEILINGS...AND SHOULD HAVE THE BULK OF THE DAY VFR. MID AND UPPER
CLOUDS FROM A SHEARING SYSTEM TO THE WEST KEEPS THE SKY BKN-OVC
ABOVE 7KFT...AND HAVE MVFR CEILINGS RETURNING AGAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. THIS IS THANKS TO A RE EMERGENCE OF LOW LEVEL
FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION SETTING UP ONCE
AGAIN.

LARGELY RELIED ON THE MET GUIDANCE AGAIN FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CLEARING TONIGHT COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
SOUTH. TIMING OF CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR IN THE MIXING HOURS
TODAY COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   THU 12/18/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    M    M

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB/MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS61 KRLX 180544
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1244 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THINS INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
920 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT GET COLDER...A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

THERE ARE "NEVER ANY ALWAYS" IN THIS BUSINESS.  DESPITE A PATTERN
SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION...CONCERNED CLOUDS MAY BREAK UP SOONER...ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE THINNING LOW CLOUDS ON
SATELLITE IMAGE S OF CRW THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS LEADS TO
MANY DIFFICULTIES FOR TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND THUS TEMPERATURES ARE A
MAJOR ISSUE...BUT FOR THE GENERAL PUBLIC IT IS NOT A MEMORABLE
SUBJECT. WILL LIKELY GO WITH MORE PARTIAL CLEARING IN SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND A BIT COLDER TONIGHT IN OUR AFTERNOON UPDATE. OF
COURSE...EAST OF MOUNTAIN CRESTS...THE USUAL CLEARING IN POCAHONTAS
COUNTY TOO.

WILL KEEP IT DRY THURSDAY. THOUGH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS
INCREASING...COULD BE DETECTED BY RADAR.  MID LEVEL TROF AXIS
APPROACHES OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES BY 00Z FRIDAY.

AS A SIDE NOTE...MADE A FACEBOOK POST TODAY ABOUT THE 25TH
ANNIVERSARY OF THE PRE CHRISTMAS COLD WAVE OF DECEMBER 1989.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES ON SATURDAY. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...MODELS BRING
CONSIDERABLE FORCING IN FORM OF A OPEN WAVE AT H500 AND ASSOCIATED
VORTICITY MAXIMA PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS TN...KY AND
VA. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT WV SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WINTRY MIX PRECIPITATION. FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET...RAIN AND/OR SNOW COULD BE POSSIBLE.

THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WHILE THE GFS...CMC...AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM BRING
PERIODS OF PCPN IN THEIR QPF FIELDS OVER THE WV AND VA. DECIDED TO
KEEP LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM PER PERSISTENCE
AMONG THE MODEL CONSENSUS. CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW...AND
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST MIGHT BE POSSIBLE DURING THE UPCOMING
DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUAL DRYING TREND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER WEATHER WILL THEN
TAKE HOLD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MONDAY...COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS TAKE COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT PATHS WITH THIS LOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE ANY
MAJOR EFFECTS WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MID
WEST...THAT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND A COLD FRONT BACK INTO
THE AREA LONG ABOUT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LAST INTO AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WHEN THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS MOSTLY RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ON TUESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MIXING AFTER DAWN TODAY FINALLY BRINGS TERMINALS OUT OF THE MVFR
CEILINGS...AND SHOULD HAVE THE BULK OF THE DAY VFR. MID AND UPPER
CLOUDS FROM A SHEARING SYSTEM TO THE WEST KEEPS THE SKY BKN-OVC
ABOVE 7KFT...AND HAVE MVFR CEILINGS RETURNING AGAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. THIS IS THANKS TO A RE EMERGENCE OF LOW LEVEL
FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION SETTING UP ONCE
AGAIN.

LARGELY RELIED ON THE MET GUIDANCE AGAIN FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CLEARING TONIGHT COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
SOUTH. TIMING OF CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR IN THE MIXING HOURS
TODAY COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   THU 12/18/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    M    M

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB/MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS61 KRLX 180544
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1244 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THINS INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
920 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT GET COLDER...A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

THERE ARE "NEVER ANY ALWAYS" IN THIS BUSINESS.  DESPITE A PATTERN
SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION...CONCERNED CLOUDS MAY BREAK UP SOONER...ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE THINNING LOW CLOUDS ON
SATELLITE IMAGE S OF CRW THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS LEADS TO
MANY DIFFICULTIES FOR TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND THUS TEMPERATURES ARE A
MAJOR ISSUE...BUT FOR THE GENERAL PUBLIC IT IS NOT A MEMORABLE
SUBJECT. WILL LIKELY GO WITH MORE PARTIAL CLEARING IN SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND A BIT COLDER TONIGHT IN OUR AFTERNOON UPDATE. OF
COURSE...EAST OF MOUNTAIN CRESTS...THE USUAL CLEARING IN POCAHONTAS
COUNTY TOO.

WILL KEEP IT DRY THURSDAY. THOUGH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS
INCREASING...COULD BE DETECTED BY RADAR.  MID LEVEL TROF AXIS
APPROACHES OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES BY 00Z FRIDAY.

AS A SIDE NOTE...MADE A FACEBOOK POST TODAY ABOUT THE 25TH
ANNIVERSARY OF THE PRE CHRISTMAS COLD WAVE OF DECEMBER 1989.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES ON SATURDAY. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...MODELS BRING
CONSIDERABLE FORCING IN FORM OF A OPEN WAVE AT H500 AND ASSOCIATED
VORTICITY MAXIMA PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS TN...KY AND
VA. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT WV SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WINTRY MIX PRECIPITATION. FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET...RAIN AND/OR SNOW COULD BE POSSIBLE.

THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WHILE THE GFS...CMC...AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM BRING
PERIODS OF PCPN IN THEIR QPF FIELDS OVER THE WV AND VA. DECIDED TO
KEEP LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM PER PERSISTENCE
AMONG THE MODEL CONSENSUS. CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW...AND
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST MIGHT BE POSSIBLE DURING THE UPCOMING
DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUAL DRYING TREND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER WEATHER WILL THEN
TAKE HOLD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MONDAY...COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS TAKE COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT PATHS WITH THIS LOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE ANY
MAJOR EFFECTS WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MID
WEST...THAT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND A COLD FRONT BACK INTO
THE AREA LONG ABOUT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LAST INTO AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WHEN THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS MOSTLY RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ON TUESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MIXING AFTER DAWN TODAY FINALLY BRINGS TERMINALS OUT OF THE MVFR
CEILINGS...AND SHOULD HAVE THE BULK OF THE DAY VFR. MID AND UPPER
CLOUDS FROM A SHEARING SYSTEM TO THE WEST KEEPS THE SKY BKN-OVC
ABOVE 7KFT...AND HAVE MVFR CEILINGS RETURNING AGAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. THIS IS THANKS TO A RE EMERGENCE OF LOW LEVEL
FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION SETTING UP ONCE
AGAIN.

LARGELY RELIED ON THE MET GUIDANCE AGAIN FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CLEARING TONIGHT COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
SOUTH. TIMING OF CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR IN THE MIXING HOURS
TODAY COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   THU 12/18/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    M    M

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB/MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS61 KRLX 180221
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
921 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THINS INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
920 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT GET COLDER...A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

THERE ARE "NEVER ANY ALWAYS" IN THIS BUSINESS.  DESPITE A PATTERN
SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION...CONCERNED CLOUDS MAY BREAK UP SOONER...ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE THINNING LOW CLOUDS ON
SATELLITE IMAGE S OF CRW THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS LEADS TO
MANY DIFFICULTIES FOR TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND THUS TEMPERATURES ARE A
MAJOR ISSUE...BUT FOR THE GENERAL PUBLIC IT IS NOT A MEMORABLE
SUBJECT. WILL LIKELY GO WITH MORE PARTIAL CLEARING IN SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND A BIT COLDER TONIGHT IN OUR AFTERNOON UPDATE. OF
COURSE...EAST OF MOUNTAIN CRESTS...THE USUAL CLEARING IN POCAHONTAS
COUNTY TOO.

WILL KEEP IT DRY THURSDAY. THOUGH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS
INCREASING...COULD BE DETECTED BY RADAR.  MID LEVEL TROF AXIS
APPROACHES OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES BY 00Z FRIDAY.

AS A SIDE NOTE...MADE A FACEBOOK POST TODAY ABOUT THE 25TH
ANNIVERSARY OF THE PRE CHRISTMAS COLD WAVE OF DECEMBER 1989.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES ON SATURDAY. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...MODELS BRING
CONSIDERABLE FORCING IN FORM OF A OPEN WAVE AT H500 AND ASSOCIATED
VORTICITY MAXIMA PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS TN...KY AND
VA. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT WV SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WINTRY MIX PRECIPITATION. FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET...RAIN AND/OR SNOW COULD BE POSSIBLE.

THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WHILE THE GFS...CMC...AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM BRING
PERIODS OF PCPN IN THEIR QPF FIELDS OVER THE WV AND VA. DECIDED TO
KEEP LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM PER PERSISTENCE
AMONG THE MODEL CONSENSUS. CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW...AND
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST MIGHT BE POSSIBLE DURING THE UPCOMING
DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUAL DRYING TREND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER WEATHER WILL THEN
TAKE HOLD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MONDAY...COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS TAKE COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT PATHS WITH THIS LOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE ANY
MAJOR EFFECTS WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MID
WEST...THAT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND A COLD FRONT BACK INTO
THE AREA LONG ABOUT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LAST INTO AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WHEN THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS MOSTLY RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ON TUESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ERODING ACROSS THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE
NOSES IN. SOME QUESTION ON JUST HOW FAR NORTH THIS DRIER AIR WILL
MAKE IT...SO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN WE MAY BREAK OUT OF MVFR AT
SITES SUCH AS HTS AND CRW. MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING
TOUGH AT HTS AND CRW...BUT THEY SEEM TO BE TOO PESSIMISTIC BASED
ON WHATS HAPPENING IN EASTERN KY. NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS...SO MAY
ALSO FILL BACK IN AT BKW OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT MVFR TO
REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH...AND MUCH OF TOMORROW
AT CKB AND EKN. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT OUT OF
THE W AND NW THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MORE CLEARING COULD OCCUR THAN EXPECTED TONIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                       THU 12/18/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EST 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB/MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...MZ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 180221
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
921 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THINS INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
920 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT GET COLDER...A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

THERE ARE "NEVER ANY ALWAYS" IN THIS BUSINESS.  DESPITE A PATTERN
SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION...CONCERNED CLOUDS MAY BREAK UP SOONER...ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE THINNING LOW CLOUDS ON
SATELLITE IMAGE S OF CRW THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS LEADS TO
MANY DIFFICULTIES FOR TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND THUS TEMPERATURES ARE A
MAJOR ISSUE...BUT FOR THE GENERAL PUBLIC IT IS NOT A MEMORABLE
SUBJECT. WILL LIKELY GO WITH MORE PARTIAL CLEARING IN SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND A BIT COLDER TONIGHT IN OUR AFTERNOON UPDATE. OF
COURSE...EAST OF MOUNTAIN CRESTS...THE USUAL CLEARING IN POCAHONTAS
COUNTY TOO.

WILL KEEP IT DRY THURSDAY. THOUGH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS
INCREASING...COULD BE DETECTED BY RADAR.  MID LEVEL TROF AXIS
APPROACHES OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES BY 00Z FRIDAY.

AS A SIDE NOTE...MADE A FACEBOOK POST TODAY ABOUT THE 25TH
ANNIVERSARY OF THE PRE CHRISTMAS COLD WAVE OF DECEMBER 1989.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES ON SATURDAY. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...MODELS BRING
CONSIDERABLE FORCING IN FORM OF A OPEN WAVE AT H500 AND ASSOCIATED
VORTICITY MAXIMA PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS TN...KY AND
VA. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT WV SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WINTRY MIX PRECIPITATION. FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET...RAIN AND/OR SNOW COULD BE POSSIBLE.

THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WHILE THE GFS...CMC...AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM BRING
PERIODS OF PCPN IN THEIR QPF FIELDS OVER THE WV AND VA. DECIDED TO
KEEP LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM PER PERSISTENCE
AMONG THE MODEL CONSENSUS. CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW...AND
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST MIGHT BE POSSIBLE DURING THE UPCOMING
DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUAL DRYING TREND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER WEATHER WILL THEN
TAKE HOLD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MONDAY...COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS TAKE COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT PATHS WITH THIS LOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE ANY
MAJOR EFFECTS WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MID
WEST...THAT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND A COLD FRONT BACK INTO
THE AREA LONG ABOUT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LAST INTO AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WHEN THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS MOSTLY RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ON TUESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ERODING ACROSS THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE
NOSES IN. SOME QUESTION ON JUST HOW FAR NORTH THIS DRIER AIR WILL
MAKE IT...SO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN WE MAY BREAK OUT OF MVFR AT
SITES SUCH AS HTS AND CRW. MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING
TOUGH AT HTS AND CRW...BUT THEY SEEM TO BE TOO PESSIMISTIC BASED
ON WHATS HAPPENING IN EASTERN KY. NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS...SO MAY
ALSO FILL BACK IN AT BKW OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT MVFR TO
REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH...AND MUCH OF TOMORROW
AT CKB AND EKN. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT OUT OF
THE W AND NW THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MORE CLEARING COULD OCCUR THAN EXPECTED TONIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                       THU 12/18/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EST 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB/MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...MZ








000
FXUS61 KRLX 172320
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
620 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THINS INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT GET COLDER...A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

THERE ARE "NEVER ANY ALWAYS" IN THIS BUSINESS.  DESPITE A PATTERN
SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION...CONCERNED CLOUDS MAY BREAK UP SOONER...ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE THINNING LOW CLOUDS ON
SATELLITE IMAGE S OF CRW THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS LEADS TO
MANY DIFFICULTIES FOR TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND THUS TEMPERATURES ARE A
MAJOR ISSUE...BUT FOR THE GENERAL PUBLIC IT IS NOT A MEMORABLE
SUBJECT. WILL LIKELY GO WITH MORE PARTIAL CLEARING IN SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND A BIT COLDER TONIGHT IN OUR AFTERNOON UPDATE. OF
COURSE...EAST OF MOUNTAIN CRESTS...THE USUAL CLEARING IN POCAHONTAS
COUNTY TOO.

WILL KEEP IT DRY THURSDAY. THOUGH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS
INCREASING...COULD BE DETECTED BY RADAR.  MID LEVEL TROF AXIS
APPROACHES OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES BY 00Z FRIDAY.

AS A SIDE NOTE...MADE A FACEBOOK POST TODAY ABOUT THE 25TH
ANNIVERSARY OF THE PRE CHRISTMAS COLD WAVE OF DECEMBER 1989.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES ON SATURDAY. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...MODELS BRING
CONSIDERABLE FORCING IN FORM OF A OPEN WAVE AT H500 AND ASSOCIATED
VORTICITY MAXIMA PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS TN...KY AND
VA. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT WV SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WINTRY MIX PRECIPITATION. FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET...RAIN AND/OR SNOW COULD BE POSSIBLE.

THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WHILE THE GFS...CMC...AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM BRING
PERIODS OF PCPN IN THEIR QPF FIELDS OVER THE WV AND VA. DECIDED TO
KEEP LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM PER PERSISTENCE
AMONG THE MODEL CONSENSUS. CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW...AND
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST MIGHT BE POSSIBLE DURING THE UPCOMING
DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUAL DRYING TREND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER WEATHER WILL THEN
TAKE HOLD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MONDAY...COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS TAKE COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT PATHS WITH THIS LOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE ANY
MAJOR EFFECTS WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MID
WEST...THAT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND A COLD FRONT BACK INTO
THE AREA LONG ABOUT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LAST INTO AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WHEN THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS MOSTLY RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ON TUESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ERODING ACROSS THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE
NOSES IN. SOME QUESTION ON JUST HOW FAR NORTH THIS DRIER AIR WILL
MAKE IT...SO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN WE MAY BREAK OUT OF MVFR AT
SITES SUCH AS HTS AND CRW. MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING
TOUGH AT HTS AND CRW...BUT THEY SEEM TO BE TOO PESSIMISTIC BASED
ON WHATS HAPPENING IN EASTERN KY. NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS...SO MAY
ALSO FILL BACK IN AT BKW OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT MVFR TO
REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH...AND MUCH OF TOMORROW
AT CKB AND EKN. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT OUT OF
THE W AND NW THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MORE CLEARING COULD OCCUR THAN EXPECTED TONIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB/MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...MZ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 172320
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
620 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THINS INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT GET COLDER...A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

THERE ARE "NEVER ANY ALWAYS" IN THIS BUSINESS.  DESPITE A PATTERN
SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION...CONCERNED CLOUDS MAY BREAK UP SOONER...ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE THINNING LOW CLOUDS ON
SATELLITE IMAGE S OF CRW THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS LEADS TO
MANY DIFFICULTIES FOR TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND THUS TEMPERATURES ARE A
MAJOR ISSUE...BUT FOR THE GENERAL PUBLIC IT IS NOT A MEMORABLE
SUBJECT. WILL LIKELY GO WITH MORE PARTIAL CLEARING IN SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND A BIT COLDER TONIGHT IN OUR AFTERNOON UPDATE. OF
COURSE...EAST OF MOUNTAIN CRESTS...THE USUAL CLEARING IN POCAHONTAS
COUNTY TOO.

WILL KEEP IT DRY THURSDAY. THOUGH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS
INCREASING...COULD BE DETECTED BY RADAR.  MID LEVEL TROF AXIS
APPROACHES OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES BY 00Z FRIDAY.

AS A SIDE NOTE...MADE A FACEBOOK POST TODAY ABOUT THE 25TH
ANNIVERSARY OF THE PRE CHRISTMAS COLD WAVE OF DECEMBER 1989.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES ON SATURDAY. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...MODELS BRING
CONSIDERABLE FORCING IN FORM OF A OPEN WAVE AT H500 AND ASSOCIATED
VORTICITY MAXIMA PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS TN...KY AND
VA. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT WV SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WINTRY MIX PRECIPITATION. FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET...RAIN AND/OR SNOW COULD BE POSSIBLE.

THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WHILE THE GFS...CMC...AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM BRING
PERIODS OF PCPN IN THEIR QPF FIELDS OVER THE WV AND VA. DECIDED TO
KEEP LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM PER PERSISTENCE
AMONG THE MODEL CONSENSUS. CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW...AND
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST MIGHT BE POSSIBLE DURING THE UPCOMING
DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUAL DRYING TREND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER WEATHER WILL THEN
TAKE HOLD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MONDAY...COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS TAKE COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT PATHS WITH THIS LOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE ANY
MAJOR EFFECTS WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MID
WEST...THAT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND A COLD FRONT BACK INTO
THE AREA LONG ABOUT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LAST INTO AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WHEN THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS MOSTLY RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ON TUESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ERODING ACROSS THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE
NOSES IN. SOME QUESTION ON JUST HOW FAR NORTH THIS DRIER AIR WILL
MAKE IT...SO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN WE MAY BREAK OUT OF MVFR AT
SITES SUCH AS HTS AND CRW. MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING
TOUGH AT HTS AND CRW...BUT THEY SEEM TO BE TOO PESSIMISTIC BASED
ON WHATS HAPPENING IN EASTERN KY. NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS...SO MAY
ALSO FILL BACK IN AT BKW OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT MVFR TO
REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH...AND MUCH OF TOMORROW
AT CKB AND EKN. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT OUT OF
THE W AND NW THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MORE CLEARING COULD OCCUR THAN EXPECTED TONIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB/MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...MZ








000
FXUS61 KRLX 172143
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
443 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THINS INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT GET COLDER...A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

THERE ARE "NEVER ANY ALWAYS" IN THIS BUSINESS.  DESPITE A PATTERN
SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION...CONCERNED CLOUDS MAY BREAK UP SOONER...ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE THINNING LOW CLOUDS ON
SATELLITE IMAGE S OF CRW THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS LEADS TO
MANY DIFFICULTIES FOR TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND THUS TEMPERATURES ARE A
MAJOR ISSUE...BUT FOR THE GENERAL PUBLIC IT IS NOT A MEMORABLE
SUBJECT. WILL LIKELY GO WITH MORE PARTIAL CLEARING IN SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND A BIT COLDER TONIGHT IN OUR AFTERNOON UPDATE. OF
COURSE...EAST OF MOUNTAIN CRESTS...THE USUAL CLEARING IN POCAHONTAS
COUNTY TOO.

WILL KEEP IT DRY THURSDAY. THOUGH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS
INCREASING...COULD BE DETECTED BY RADAR.  MID LEVEL TROF AXIS
APPROACHES OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES BY 00Z FRIDAY.

AS A SIDE NOTE...MADE A FACEBOOK POST TODAY ABOUT THE 25TH
ANNIVERSARY OF THE PRE CHRISTMAS COLD WAVE OF DECEMBER 1989.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES ON SATURDAY. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...MODELS BRING
CONSIDERABLE FORCING IN FORM OF A OPEN WAVE AT H500 AND ASSOCIATED
VORTICITY MAXIMA PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS TN...KY AND
VA. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT WV SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WINTRY MIX PRECIPITATION. FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET...RAIN AND/OR SNOW COULD BE POSSIBLE.

THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WHILE THE GFS...CMC...AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM BRING
PERIODS OF PCPN IN THEIR QPF FIELDS OVER THE WV AND VA. DECIDED TO
KEEP LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM PER PERSISTENCE
AMONG THE MODEL CONSENSUS. CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW...AND
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST MIGHT BE POSSIBLE DURING THE UPCOMING
DAYS.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUAL DRYING TREND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER WEATHER WILL THEN
TAKE HOLD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MONDAY...COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS TAKE COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT PATHS WITH THIS LOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE ANY
MAJOR EFFECTS WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MID
WEST...THAT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND A COLD FRONT BACK INTO
THE AREA LONG ABOUT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LAST INTO AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WHEN THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS MOSTLY RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ON TUESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE THINNING OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SE-S OF CRW THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS MAKES CEILING FORECAST
DIFFICULT OVERNIGHT WITH THE WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT STILL
IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROF THROUGH 15Z THURSDAY. IT MAY TURN OUT
TO BE MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN FORECAST FOR PLACES LIKE CRW AND BKW.
COULD NOT EVEN RULE OUT SOME MVFR IN FOG IN THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS...IF THOSE THINNING LOW CLOUDS BECOME SCATTERED OVERNIGHT.

WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO DRY UP ON THURSDAY...MID
DECK CLOUDS AT 8 TO 10 THSD FT PSBL.  MAY BE SOME RADAR RETURNS
FROM THE MID DECK BY 18Z BUT DO NOT THINK ANY PCPN REACHES THE
GROUND.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MORE CLEARING COULD OCCUR THAN EXPECTED TONIGHT
IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KTB









000
FXUS61 KRLX 172143
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
443 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THINS INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT GET COLDER...A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

THERE ARE "NEVER ANY ALWAYS" IN THIS BUSINESS.  DESPITE A PATTERN
SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION...CONCERNED CLOUDS MAY BREAK UP SOONER...ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE THINNING LOW CLOUDS ON
SATELLITE IMAGE S OF CRW THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS LEADS TO
MANY DIFFICULTIES FOR TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND THUS TEMPERATURES ARE A
MAJOR ISSUE...BUT FOR THE GENERAL PUBLIC IT IS NOT A MEMORABLE
SUBJECT. WILL LIKELY GO WITH MORE PARTIAL CLEARING IN SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND A BIT COLDER TONIGHT IN OUR AFTERNOON UPDATE. OF
COURSE...EAST OF MOUNTAIN CRESTS...THE USUAL CLEARING IN POCAHONTAS
COUNTY TOO.

WILL KEEP IT DRY THURSDAY. THOUGH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS
INCREASING...COULD BE DETECTED BY RADAR.  MID LEVEL TROF AXIS
APPROACHES OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES BY 00Z FRIDAY.

AS A SIDE NOTE...MADE A FACEBOOK POST TODAY ABOUT THE 25TH
ANNIVERSARY OF THE PRE CHRISTMAS COLD WAVE OF DECEMBER 1989.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES ON SATURDAY. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...MODELS BRING
CONSIDERABLE FORCING IN FORM OF A OPEN WAVE AT H500 AND ASSOCIATED
VORTICITY MAXIMA PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS TN...KY AND
VA. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT WV SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WINTRY MIX PRECIPITATION. FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET...RAIN AND/OR SNOW COULD BE POSSIBLE.

THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WHILE THE GFS...CMC...AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM BRING
PERIODS OF PCPN IN THEIR QPF FIELDS OVER THE WV AND VA. DECIDED TO
KEEP LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM PER PERSISTENCE
AMONG THE MODEL CONSENSUS. CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW...AND
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST MIGHT BE POSSIBLE DURING THE UPCOMING
DAYS.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUAL DRYING TREND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER WEATHER WILL THEN
TAKE HOLD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MONDAY...COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS TAKE COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT PATHS WITH THIS LOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE ANY
MAJOR EFFECTS WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MID
WEST...THAT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND A COLD FRONT BACK INTO
THE AREA LONG ABOUT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LAST INTO AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WHEN THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS MOSTLY RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ON TUESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE THINNING OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SE-S OF CRW THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS MAKES CEILING FORECAST
DIFFICULT OVERNIGHT WITH THE WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT STILL
IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROF THROUGH 15Z THURSDAY. IT MAY TURN OUT
TO BE MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN FORECAST FOR PLACES LIKE CRW AND BKW.
COULD NOT EVEN RULE OUT SOME MVFR IN FOG IN THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS...IF THOSE THINNING LOW CLOUDS BECOME SCATTERED OVERNIGHT.

WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO DRY UP ON THURSDAY...MID
DECK CLOUDS AT 8 TO 10 THSD FT PSBL.  MAY BE SOME RADAR RETURNS
FROM THE MID DECK BY 18Z BUT DO NOT THINK ANY PCPN REACHES THE
GROUND.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MORE CLEARING COULD OCCUR THAN EXPECTED TONIGHT
IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KTB









000
FXUS61 KRLX 172143
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
443 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THINS INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT GET COLDER...A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

THERE ARE "NEVER ANY ALWAYS" IN THIS BUSINESS.  DESPITE A PATTERN
SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION...CONCERNED CLOUDS MAY BREAK UP SOONER...ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE THINNING LOW CLOUDS ON
SATELLITE IMAGE S OF CRW THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS LEADS TO
MANY DIFFICULTIES FOR TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND THUS TEMPERATURES ARE A
MAJOR ISSUE...BUT FOR THE GENERAL PUBLIC IT IS NOT A MEMORABLE
SUBJECT. WILL LIKELY GO WITH MORE PARTIAL CLEARING IN SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND A BIT COLDER TONIGHT IN OUR AFTERNOON UPDATE. OF
COURSE...EAST OF MOUNTAIN CRESTS...THE USUAL CLEARING IN POCAHONTAS
COUNTY TOO.

WILL KEEP IT DRY THURSDAY. THOUGH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS
INCREASING...COULD BE DETECTED BY RADAR.  MID LEVEL TROF AXIS
APPROACHES OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES BY 00Z FRIDAY.

AS A SIDE NOTE...MADE A FACEBOOK POST TODAY ABOUT THE 25TH
ANNIVERSARY OF THE PRE CHRISTMAS COLD WAVE OF DECEMBER 1989.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES ON SATURDAY. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...MODELS BRING
CONSIDERABLE FORCING IN FORM OF A OPEN WAVE AT H500 AND ASSOCIATED
VORTICITY MAXIMA PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS TN...KY AND
VA. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT WV SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WINTRY MIX PRECIPITATION. FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET...RAIN AND/OR SNOW COULD BE POSSIBLE.

THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WHILE THE GFS...CMC...AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM BRING
PERIODS OF PCPN IN THEIR QPF FIELDS OVER THE WV AND VA. DECIDED TO
KEEP LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM PER PERSISTENCE
AMONG THE MODEL CONSENSUS. CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW...AND
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST MIGHT BE POSSIBLE DURING THE UPCOMING
DAYS.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUAL DRYING TREND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER WEATHER WILL THEN
TAKE HOLD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MONDAY...COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS TAKE COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT PATHS WITH THIS LOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE ANY
MAJOR EFFECTS WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MID
WEST...THAT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND A COLD FRONT BACK INTO
THE AREA LONG ABOUT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LAST INTO AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WHEN THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS MOSTLY RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ON TUESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE THINNING OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SE-S OF CRW THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS MAKES CEILING FORECAST
DIFFICULT OVERNIGHT WITH THE WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT STILL
IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROF THROUGH 15Z THURSDAY. IT MAY TURN OUT
TO BE MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN FORECAST FOR PLACES LIKE CRW AND BKW.
COULD NOT EVEN RULE OUT SOME MVFR IN FOG IN THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS...IF THOSE THINNING LOW CLOUDS BECOME SCATTERED OVERNIGHT.

WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO DRY UP ON THURSDAY...MID
DECK CLOUDS AT 8 TO 10 THSD FT PSBL.  MAY BE SOME RADAR RETURNS
FROM THE MID DECK BY 18Z BUT DO NOT THINK ANY PCPN REACHES THE
GROUND.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MORE CLEARING COULD OCCUR THAN EXPECTED TONIGHT
IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KTB









000
FXUS61 KRLX 172143
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
443 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THINS INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT GET COLDER...A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

THERE ARE "NEVER ANY ALWAYS" IN THIS BUSINESS.  DESPITE A PATTERN
SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION...CONCERNED CLOUDS MAY BREAK UP SOONER...ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE THINNING LOW CLOUDS ON
SATELLITE IMAGE S OF CRW THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS LEADS TO
MANY DIFFICULTIES FOR TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND THUS TEMPERATURES ARE A
MAJOR ISSUE...BUT FOR THE GENERAL PUBLIC IT IS NOT A MEMORABLE
SUBJECT. WILL LIKELY GO WITH MORE PARTIAL CLEARING IN SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND A BIT COLDER TONIGHT IN OUR AFTERNOON UPDATE. OF
COURSE...EAST OF MOUNTAIN CRESTS...THE USUAL CLEARING IN POCAHONTAS
COUNTY TOO.

WILL KEEP IT DRY THURSDAY. THOUGH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS
INCREASING...COULD BE DETECTED BY RADAR.  MID LEVEL TROF AXIS
APPROACHES OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES BY 00Z FRIDAY.

AS A SIDE NOTE...MADE A FACEBOOK POST TODAY ABOUT THE 25TH
ANNIVERSARY OF THE PRE CHRISTMAS COLD WAVE OF DECEMBER 1989.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES ON SATURDAY. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...MODELS BRING
CONSIDERABLE FORCING IN FORM OF A OPEN WAVE AT H500 AND ASSOCIATED
VORTICITY MAXIMA PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS TN...KY AND
VA. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT WV SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WINTRY MIX PRECIPITATION. FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET...RAIN AND/OR SNOW COULD BE POSSIBLE.

THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WHILE THE GFS...CMC...AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM BRING
PERIODS OF PCPN IN THEIR QPF FIELDS OVER THE WV AND VA. DECIDED TO
KEEP LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM PER PERSISTENCE
AMONG THE MODEL CONSENSUS. CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW...AND
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST MIGHT BE POSSIBLE DURING THE UPCOMING
DAYS.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUAL DRYING TREND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER WEATHER WILL THEN
TAKE HOLD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MONDAY...COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS TAKE COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT PATHS WITH THIS LOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE ANY
MAJOR EFFECTS WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MID
WEST...THAT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND A COLD FRONT BACK INTO
THE AREA LONG ABOUT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LAST INTO AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WHEN THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS MOSTLY RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ON TUESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE THINNING OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SE-S OF CRW THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS MAKES CEILING FORECAST
DIFFICULT OVERNIGHT WITH THE WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT STILL
IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROF THROUGH 15Z THURSDAY. IT MAY TURN OUT
TO BE MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN FORECAST FOR PLACES LIKE CRW AND BKW.
COULD NOT EVEN RULE OUT SOME MVFR IN FOG IN THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS...IF THOSE THINNING LOW CLOUDS BECOME SCATTERED OVERNIGHT.

WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO DRY UP ON THURSDAY...MID
DECK CLOUDS AT 8 TO 10 THSD FT PSBL.  MAY BE SOME RADAR RETURNS
FROM THE MID DECK BY 18Z BUT DO NOT THINK ANY PCPN REACHES THE
GROUND.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MORE CLEARING COULD OCCUR THAN EXPECTED TONIGHT
IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KTB









000
FXUS61 KRLX 171831
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
131 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THINS INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT GET COLDER...A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

THERE ARE "NEVER ANY ALWAYS" IN THIS BUSINESS.  DESPITE A PATTERN
SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION...CONCERNED CLOUDS MAY BREAK UP SOONER...ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE THINNING LOW CLOUDS ON
SATELLITE IMAGE S OF CRW THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS LEADS TO
MANY DIFFICULTIES FOR TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND THUS TEMPERATURES ARE A
MAJOR ISSUE...BUT FOR THE GENERAL PUBLIC IT IS NOT A MEMORABLE
SUBJECT. WILL LIKELY GO WITH MORE PARTIAL CLEARING IN SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND A BIT COLDER TONIGHT IN OUR AFTERNOON UPDATE. OF
COURSE...EAST OF MOUNTAIN CRESTS...THE USUAL CLEARING IN POCAHONTAS
COUNTY TOO.

WILL KEEP IT DRY THURSDAY. THOUGH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS
INCREASING...COULD BE DETECTED BY RADAR.  MID LEVEL TROF AXIS
APPROACHES OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES BY 00Z FRIDAY.

AS A SIDE NOTE...MADE A FACEBOOK POST TODAY ABOUT THE 25TH
ANNIVERSARY OF THE PRE CHRISTMAS COLD WAVE OF DECEMBER 1989.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BEFORE THE ADVERTISED STORM SYSTEM FOR THIS WEEKEND...OF WHICH
LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THAT FORECAST...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL BE
ZONAL WITH A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE WILL KEEP CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT NO PRECIP ADDED AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND THE
DISTURBANCES WILL BE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE ACROSS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GRADUAL DRYING TREND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER WEATHER WILL THEN
TAKE HOLD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MONDAY...COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS TAKE COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT PATHS WITH THIS LOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE ANY
MAJOR EFFECTS WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MID
WEST...THAT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND A COLD FRONT BACK INTO
THE AREA LONG ABOUT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LAST INTO AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WHEN THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS MOSTLY RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ON TUESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE THINNING OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SE-S OF CRW THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS MAKES CEILING FORECAST
DIFFICULT OVERNIGHT WITH THE WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT STILL
IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROF THROUGH 15Z THURSDAY. IT MAY TURN OUT
TO BE MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN FORECAST FOR PLACES LIKE CRW AND BKW.
COULD NOT EVEN RULE OUT SOME MVFR IN FOG IN THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS...IF THOSE THINNING LOW CLOUDS BECOME SCATTERED OVERNIGHT.

WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO DRY UP ON THURSDAY...MID
DECK CLOUDS AT 8 TO 10 THSD FT PSBL.  MAY BE SOME RADAR RETURNS
FROM THE MID DECK BY 18Z BUT DO NOT THINK ANY PCPN REACHES THE
GROUND.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MORE CLEARING COULD OCCUR THAN EXPECTED TONIGHT
IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KTB








000
FXUS61 KRLX 171831
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
131 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THINS INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT GET COLDER...A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

THERE ARE "NEVER ANY ALWAYS" IN THIS BUSINESS.  DESPITE A PATTERN
SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION...CONCERNED CLOUDS MAY BREAK UP SOONER...ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE THINNING LOW CLOUDS ON
SATELLITE IMAGE S OF CRW THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS LEADS TO
MANY DIFFICULTIES FOR TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND THUS TEMPERATURES ARE A
MAJOR ISSUE...BUT FOR THE GENERAL PUBLIC IT IS NOT A MEMORABLE
SUBJECT. WILL LIKELY GO WITH MORE PARTIAL CLEARING IN SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND A BIT COLDER TONIGHT IN OUR AFTERNOON UPDATE. OF
COURSE...EAST OF MOUNTAIN CRESTS...THE USUAL CLEARING IN POCAHONTAS
COUNTY TOO.

WILL KEEP IT DRY THURSDAY. THOUGH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS
INCREASING...COULD BE DETECTED BY RADAR.  MID LEVEL TROF AXIS
APPROACHES OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES BY 00Z FRIDAY.

AS A SIDE NOTE...MADE A FACEBOOK POST TODAY ABOUT THE 25TH
ANNIVERSARY OF THE PRE CHRISTMAS COLD WAVE OF DECEMBER 1989.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BEFORE THE ADVERTISED STORM SYSTEM FOR THIS WEEKEND...OF WHICH
LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THAT FORECAST...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL BE
ZONAL WITH A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE WILL KEEP CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT NO PRECIP ADDED AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND THE
DISTURBANCES WILL BE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE ACROSS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GRADUAL DRYING TREND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER WEATHER WILL THEN
TAKE HOLD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MONDAY...COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS TAKE COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT PATHS WITH THIS LOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE ANY
MAJOR EFFECTS WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MID
WEST...THAT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND A COLD FRONT BACK INTO
THE AREA LONG ABOUT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LAST INTO AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WHEN THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS MOSTLY RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ON TUESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE THINNING OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SE-S OF CRW THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS MAKES CEILING FORECAST
DIFFICULT OVERNIGHT WITH THE WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT STILL
IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROF THROUGH 15Z THURSDAY. IT MAY TURN OUT
TO BE MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN FORECAST FOR PLACES LIKE CRW AND BKW.
COULD NOT EVEN RULE OUT SOME MVFR IN FOG IN THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS...IF THOSE THINNING LOW CLOUDS BECOME SCATTERED OVERNIGHT.

WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO DRY UP ON THURSDAY...MID
DECK CLOUDS AT 8 TO 10 THSD FT PSBL.  MAY BE SOME RADAR RETURNS
FROM THE MID DECK BY 18Z BUT DO NOT THINK ANY PCPN REACHES THE
GROUND.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MORE CLEARING COULD OCCUR THAN EXPECTED TONIGHT
IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KTB









000
FXUS61 KRLX 171828
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
125 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THINS INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT GET COLDER...A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

THERE ARE "NEVER ANY ALWAYS" IN THIS BUSINESS.  DESPITE A PATTERN
SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION...CONCERNED CLOUDS MAY BREAK UP SOONER...ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE THINNING LOW CLOUDS ON
SATELLITE IMAGE S OF CRW THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS LEADS TO
MANY DIFFICULTIES FOR TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND THUS TEMPERATURES ARE A
MAJOR ISSUE...BUT FOR THE GENERAL PUBLIC IT IS NOT A MEMORABLE
SUBJECT. WILL LIKELY GO WITH MORE PARTIAL CLEARING IN SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND A BIT COLDER TONIGHT IN OUR AFTERNOON UPDATE. OF
COURSE...EAST OF MOUNTAIN CRESTS...THE USUAL CLEARING IN POCAHONTAS
COUNTY TOO.

WILL KEEP IT DRY THURSDAY. THOUGH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS
INCREASING...COULD BE DETECTED BY RADAR.  MID LEVEL TROF AXIS
APPROACHES OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES BY 00Z FRIDAY.

AS A SIDE NOTE...MADE A FACEBOOK POST TODAY ABOUT THE 25TH
ANNIVERSARY OF THE PRE CHRISTMAS COLD WAVE OF DECEMBER 1989.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEFORE THE ADVERTISED STORM SYSTEM FOR THIS WEEKEND...OF WHICH
LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THAT FORECAST...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL BE
ZONAL WITH A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE WILL KEEP CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT NO PRECIP ADDED AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND THE
DISTURBANCES WILL BE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE ACROSS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A
SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S...WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. MODELS ARE STARTING TO
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT ECMWF IS
DEEPER...AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...THUS
RESULTING IN A COLDER SOLUTION. DEPENDING ON WHICH SOLUN PANS
OUT...COULD SEE MORE OF A WINTRY MIX...AS WITH THE GFS SOLUN...OR A
MAINLY SNOW...WITH POSSIBLY BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
LOWLANDS...WITH THE ECMWF SOLUN. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARDS
HPC...WHICH TENDS TO FAVOR WARMER SOLUN. THUS...EXPECTING A WINTRY
MIX TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE LOWLANDS SATURDAY...THEN
BACK TO SNOW OR A MIX SATURDAY NIGHT. ITS POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FOR A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION...BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES IN TOWARDS MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE THINNING OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SE-S OF CRW THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS MAKES CEILING FORECAST
DIFFICULT OVERNIGHT WITH THE WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT STILL
IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROF THROUGH 15Z THURSDAY. IT MAY TURN OUT
TO BE MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN FORECAST FOR PLACES LIKE CRW AND BKW.
COULD NOT EVEN RULE OUT SOME MVFR IN FOG IN THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS...IF THOSE THINNING LOW CLOUDS BECOME SCATTERED OVERNIGHT.

WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO DRY UP ON THURSDAY...MID
DECK CLOUDS AT 8 TO 10 THSD FT PSBL.  MAY BE SOME RADAR RETURNS
FROM THE MID DECK BY 18Z BUT DO NOT THINK ANY PCPN REACHES THE
GROUND.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MORE CLEARING COULD OCCUR THAN EXPECTED TONIGHT
IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KTB










000
FXUS61 KRLX 171828
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
125 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THINS INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT GET COLDER...A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

THERE ARE "NEVER ANY ALWAYS" IN THIS BUSINESS.  DESPITE A PATTERN
SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION...CONCERNED CLOUDS MAY BREAK UP SOONER...ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE THINNING LOW CLOUDS ON
SATELLITE IMAGE S OF CRW THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS LEADS TO
MANY DIFFICULTIES FOR TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND THUS TEMPERATURES ARE A
MAJOR ISSUE...BUT FOR THE GENERAL PUBLIC IT IS NOT A MEMORABLE
SUBJECT. WILL LIKELY GO WITH MORE PARTIAL CLEARING IN SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND A BIT COLDER TONIGHT IN OUR AFTERNOON UPDATE. OF
COURSE...EAST OF MOUNTAIN CRESTS...THE USUAL CLEARING IN POCAHONTAS
COUNTY TOO.

WILL KEEP IT DRY THURSDAY. THOUGH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS
INCREASING...COULD BE DETECTED BY RADAR.  MID LEVEL TROF AXIS
APPROACHES OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES BY 00Z FRIDAY.

AS A SIDE NOTE...MADE A FACEBOOK POST TODAY ABOUT THE 25TH
ANNIVERSARY OF THE PRE CHRISTMAS COLD WAVE OF DECEMBER 1989.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEFORE THE ADVERTISED STORM SYSTEM FOR THIS WEEKEND...OF WHICH
LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THAT FORECAST...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL BE
ZONAL WITH A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE WILL KEEP CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT NO PRECIP ADDED AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND THE
DISTURBANCES WILL BE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE ACROSS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A
SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S...WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. MODELS ARE STARTING TO
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT ECMWF IS
DEEPER...AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...THUS
RESULTING IN A COLDER SOLUTION. DEPENDING ON WHICH SOLUN PANS
OUT...COULD SEE MORE OF A WINTRY MIX...AS WITH THE GFS SOLUN...OR A
MAINLY SNOW...WITH POSSIBLY BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
LOWLANDS...WITH THE ECMWF SOLUN. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARDS
HPC...WHICH TENDS TO FAVOR WARMER SOLUN. THUS...EXPECTING A WINTRY
MIX TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE LOWLANDS SATURDAY...THEN
BACK TO SNOW OR A MIX SATURDAY NIGHT. ITS POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FOR A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION...BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES IN TOWARDS MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE THINNING OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SE-S OF CRW THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS MAKES CEILING FORECAST
DIFFICULT OVERNIGHT WITH THE WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT STILL
IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROF THROUGH 15Z THURSDAY. IT MAY TURN OUT
TO BE MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN FORECAST FOR PLACES LIKE CRW AND BKW.
COULD NOT EVEN RULE OUT SOME MVFR IN FOG IN THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS...IF THOSE THINNING LOW CLOUDS BECOME SCATTERED OVERNIGHT.

WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO DRY UP ON THURSDAY...MID
DECK CLOUDS AT 8 TO 10 THSD FT PSBL.  MAY BE SOME RADAR RETURNS
FROM THE MID DECK BY 18Z BUT DO NOT THINK ANY PCPN REACHES THE
GROUND.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MORE CLEARING COULD OCCUR THAN EXPECTED TONIGHT
IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KTB











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