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000
FXUS65 KCYS 162258
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
457 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 457 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

WARM AND DRY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE THEME THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER INFLUENCE OVER
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. CURRENT SATELLITE IS
SHOWING SOME CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER THE WEST...BUT THERE IS VERY
LITTLE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE A SPRINKLE OR TWO REACHING THE GROUND HERE OR THERE...BUT
THE CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN IS NEAR ZERO. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR A FEW
ECHOS ON RADAR AS THE WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...BUT WITH SUCH
DRY LOW LEVELS IT WILL BE TOUGH FOR MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES
THROUGH TONIGHT.

VIRTUALLY NO CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THURSDAY
WHICH WILL ALSO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE BE
WELL INTO THE 80S OVER THE PLAINS AND EVEN INTO THE MID 90S FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

ANOTHER WARM DAY FRIDAY BUT A COOL FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS DURING
THE DAY WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT. MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SFC HIGH MOVES
DOWN THE HIGH PLAINS THEN SHIFTS EAST SLOWLY DURING THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK. A COMPLICATING FEATURE WILL BE A CUTOFF LOW THAT
WILL INITIALLY BE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SATURDAY. LATEST EC HAS
CHANGED IN THAT IT NOW LIFTS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THUS SPREADS SOME QPF ACROSS THE CWA FROM LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. GFS KEEPS PCPN TO THE SOUTH FOR THE MOST
PART. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN A MAINLY DRY FCST BUT MAY VERY WELL
HAVE TO BRING IN SOME PCPN IF MODELS BECOME MORE CONSISTENT WITH
THIS MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER WNW FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE WARM AND DRY WEATHER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
FRIDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY BUT
OVERALL CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS ARE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
COOLER FRIDAY AND GENERALLY REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT  STILL NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DRY THIS
WEEKEND WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. DRY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE NEXT WEEK WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
RETURNING.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...SML









000
FXUS65 KCYS 162258
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
457 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 457 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

WARM AND DRY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE THEME THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER INFLUENCE OVER
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. CURRENT SATELLITE IS
SHOWING SOME CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER THE WEST...BUT THERE IS VERY
LITTLE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE A SPRINKLE OR TWO REACHING THE GROUND HERE OR THERE...BUT
THE CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN IS NEAR ZERO. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR A FEW
ECHOS ON RADAR AS THE WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...BUT WITH SUCH
DRY LOW LEVELS IT WILL BE TOUGH FOR MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES
THROUGH TONIGHT.

VIRTUALLY NO CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THURSDAY
WHICH WILL ALSO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE BE
WELL INTO THE 80S OVER THE PLAINS AND EVEN INTO THE MID 90S FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

ANOTHER WARM DAY FRIDAY BUT A COOL FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS DURING
THE DAY WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT. MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SFC HIGH MOVES
DOWN THE HIGH PLAINS THEN SHIFTS EAST SLOWLY DURING THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK. A COMPLICATING FEATURE WILL BE A CUTOFF LOW THAT
WILL INITIALLY BE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SATURDAY. LATEST EC HAS
CHANGED IN THAT IT NOW LIFTS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THUS SPREADS SOME QPF ACROSS THE CWA FROM LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. GFS KEEPS PCPN TO THE SOUTH FOR THE MOST
PART. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN A MAINLY DRY FCST BUT MAY VERY WELL
HAVE TO BRING IN SOME PCPN IF MODELS BECOME MORE CONSISTENT WITH
THIS MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER WNW FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE WARM AND DRY WEATHER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
FRIDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY BUT
OVERALL CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS ARE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
COOLER FRIDAY AND GENERALLY REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT  STILL NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DRY THIS
WEEKEND WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. DRY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE NEXT WEEK WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
RETURNING.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...SML









000
FXUS65 KCYS 162258
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
457 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 457 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

WARM AND DRY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE THEME THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER INFLUENCE OVER
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. CURRENT SATELLITE IS
SHOWING SOME CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER THE WEST...BUT THERE IS VERY
LITTLE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE A SPRINKLE OR TWO REACHING THE GROUND HERE OR THERE...BUT
THE CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN IS NEAR ZERO. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR A FEW
ECHOS ON RADAR AS THE WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...BUT WITH SUCH
DRY LOW LEVELS IT WILL BE TOUGH FOR MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES
THROUGH TONIGHT.

VIRTUALLY NO CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THURSDAY
WHICH WILL ALSO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE BE
WELL INTO THE 80S OVER THE PLAINS AND EVEN INTO THE MID 90S FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

ANOTHER WARM DAY FRIDAY BUT A COOL FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS DURING
THE DAY WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT. MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SFC HIGH MOVES
DOWN THE HIGH PLAINS THEN SHIFTS EAST SLOWLY DURING THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK. A COMPLICATING FEATURE WILL BE A CUTOFF LOW THAT
WILL INITIALLY BE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SATURDAY. LATEST EC HAS
CHANGED IN THAT IT NOW LIFTS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THUS SPREADS SOME QPF ACROSS THE CWA FROM LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. GFS KEEPS PCPN TO THE SOUTH FOR THE MOST
PART. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN A MAINLY DRY FCST BUT MAY VERY WELL
HAVE TO BRING IN SOME PCPN IF MODELS BECOME MORE CONSISTENT WITH
THIS MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER WNW FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE WARM AND DRY WEATHER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
FRIDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY BUT
OVERALL CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS ARE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
COOLER FRIDAY AND GENERALLY REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT  STILL NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DRY THIS
WEEKEND WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. DRY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE NEXT WEEK WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
RETURNING.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...SML









000
FXUS65 KCYS 162258
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
457 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 457 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

WARM AND DRY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE THEME THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER INFLUENCE OVER
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. CURRENT SATELLITE IS
SHOWING SOME CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER THE WEST...BUT THERE IS VERY
LITTLE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE A SPRINKLE OR TWO REACHING THE GROUND HERE OR THERE...BUT
THE CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN IS NEAR ZERO. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR A FEW
ECHOS ON RADAR AS THE WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...BUT WITH SUCH
DRY LOW LEVELS IT WILL BE TOUGH FOR MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES
THROUGH TONIGHT.

VIRTUALLY NO CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THURSDAY
WHICH WILL ALSO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE BE
WELL INTO THE 80S OVER THE PLAINS AND EVEN INTO THE MID 90S FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

ANOTHER WARM DAY FRIDAY BUT A COOL FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS DURING
THE DAY WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT. MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SFC HIGH MOVES
DOWN THE HIGH PLAINS THEN SHIFTS EAST SLOWLY DURING THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK. A COMPLICATING FEATURE WILL BE A CUTOFF LOW THAT
WILL INITIALLY BE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SATURDAY. LATEST EC HAS
CHANGED IN THAT IT NOW LIFTS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THUS SPREADS SOME QPF ACROSS THE CWA FROM LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. GFS KEEPS PCPN TO THE SOUTH FOR THE MOST
PART. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN A MAINLY DRY FCST BUT MAY VERY WELL
HAVE TO BRING IN SOME PCPN IF MODELS BECOME MORE CONSISTENT WITH
THIS MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER WNW FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE WARM AND DRY WEATHER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
FRIDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY BUT
OVERALL CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS ARE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
COOLER FRIDAY AND GENERALLY REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT  STILL NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DRY THIS
WEEKEND WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. DRY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE NEXT WEEK WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
RETURNING.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...SML









000
FXUS65 KCYS 162257
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
457 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

WARM AND DRY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE THEME THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER INFLUENCE OVER
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. CURRENT SATELLITE IS
SHOWING SOME CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER THE WEST...BUT THERE IS VERY
LITTLE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE A SPRINKLE OR TWO REACHING THE GROUND HERE OR THERE...BUT
THE CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN IS NEAR ZERO. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR A FEW
ECHOS ON RADAR AS THE WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...BUT WITH SUCH
DRY LOW LEVELS IT WILL BE TOUGH FOR MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES
THROUGH TONIGHT.

VIRTUALLY NO CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THURSDAY
WHICH WILL ALSO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE BE
WELL INTO THE 80S OVER THE PLAINS AND EVEN INTO THE MID 90S FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

ANOTHER WARM DAY FRIDAY BUT A COOL FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS DURING
THE DAY WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT. MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SFC HIGH MOVES
DOWN THE HIGH PLAINS THEN SHIFTS EAST SLOWLY DURING THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK. A COMPLICATING FEATURE WILL BE A CUTOFF LOW THAT
WILL INITIALLY BE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SATURDAY. LATEST EC HAS
CHANGED IN THAT IT NOW LIFTS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THUS SPREADS SOME QPF ACROSS THE CWA FROM LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. GFS KEEPS PCPN TO THE SOUTH FOR THE MOST
PART. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN A MAINLY DRY FCST BUT MAY VERY WELL
HAVE TO BRING IN SOME PCPN IF MODELS BECOME MORE CONSISTENT WITH
THIS MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER WNW FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014



&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...SML






  [top]

000
FXUS63 KUNR 162212
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
412 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE UPPER RIDGE
CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE WILL
BRING ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN AVERAGE...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS
CLOSEST TO THE THERMAL AXIS OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND FAR
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. LOWS AT NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER PLAINS THURSDAY...FOR OUR WARMEST DAY
OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S ON THE PLAINS. RIDGE
FLATTENS FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROF APPROACHES THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S.
WHILE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE LOW...SO THUNDER NOT LIKELY DURING THE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING...BUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE WARMER AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
IN QUICKLY AND CLEARS SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY. MODELS DIFFER
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE TROF...WITH THE GFS SHOWING DEEPER TROF AND
STRONGER UPPER RIDGE REBOUNDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S...GIVING A MORE
CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW OVER FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...WHICH WOULD BE
COOLER THAN ECMWF ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL...BUT STILL PLEASANT. ECMWF POSITION OF THE CLOSED LOW
OVER GREAT BASIN NEXT WEEK COULD RESULT IN SOME PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 411 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MLS
LONG TERM...55
AVIATION...JOHNSON






000
FXUS63 KUNR 162212
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
412 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE UPPER RIDGE
CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE WILL
BRING ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN AVERAGE...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS
CLOSEST TO THE THERMAL AXIS OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND FAR
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. LOWS AT NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER PLAINS THURSDAY...FOR OUR WARMEST DAY
OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S ON THE PLAINS. RIDGE
FLATTENS FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROF APPROACHES THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S.
WHILE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE LOW...SO THUNDER NOT LIKELY DURING THE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING...BUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE WARMER AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
IN QUICKLY AND CLEARS SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY. MODELS DIFFER
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE TROF...WITH THE GFS SHOWING DEEPER TROF AND
STRONGER UPPER RIDGE REBOUNDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S...GIVING A MORE
CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW OVER FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...WHICH WOULD BE
COOLER THAN ECMWF ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL...BUT STILL PLEASANT. ECMWF POSITION OF THE CLOSED LOW
OVER GREAT BASIN NEXT WEEK COULD RESULT IN SOME PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 411 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MLS
LONG TERM...55
AVIATION...JOHNSON






  [top]

000
FXUS65 KRIW 162046
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
246 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AN WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT MOVED ACROSS IDAHO THIS MORNING
AND BROUGHT SOME SHOWERS WILL CROSS WESTERN WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING AND BRING A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT
WITH DECENT TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTY
WINDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. MEANWHILE...EAST OF THE DIVIDE EXPECT
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXCEPT FOR THE BIG HORN RANGE. GUSTY BREEZES THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA SHOULD
SUBSIDE TONIGHT. SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO WANE TONIGHT BUT NOT END ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

AS FOR WEDNESDAY THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY DRIER AS TODAY`S
SHORTWAVE SHIFTS TO THE EAST. THE MOISTURE FROM OLIDE WILL STILL BE
TO THE SOUTH. THE GFS HAS TRENDED VERY DRY AND THE EUROPEAN IS
FAIRLY DRY AS WELL. THE NAM REMAINS A BIT MORE ACTIVE BUT HOLDS ANY
CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AS A RESULT WE REDUCED
POPS A BIT FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONFINED THEM MAINLY TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...LOOK FOR ANOTHER WARM
DAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE WITH HIGHS RISING WELL INTO THE
80S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WITH LARGELY BENIGN SENSIBLE WEATHER. THERE COULD BE A WEAK
SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD
INTERACTING WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS EARLY...OTHERWISE FAIRLY CALM AND MILD CONDITIONS WED NIGHT.

THE WARM UP CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS NEAR 90 IN THE
BIG HORN BASIN BUT INCREASING CLOUDS WILL LIKELY COUNTERACT ANY
WARMING...ESPECIALLY WITH THE LOWERING SUN ANGLE OF MID SEPTEMBER.
THE BROAD SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING TROUGH TO OUR
WEST WILL ENCOURAGE A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THURSDAY THAT
WILL LIKELY LAST WELL INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
SOMEWHAT BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT ALOFT AS A LEE
SIDE TROUGH DIGS AT THE SURFACE.

A SPLITTING TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY KEEPING SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE WHERE SOME
MORE MOISTURE WILL ENCOURAGE SOME MORE ROBUST CAPE VALUES. A
REINFORCING SHORTWAVE MAY ALSO AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND
COVERAGE DEPENDING ON WHEN IT ARRIVES. OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE A DRY
SATURDAY WITH A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY AS WE GO INTO SUNDAY.
PREVIOUS RUNS HAVE HAD SOLUTIONS THAT WERE COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE
WITH ONE ANOTHER BUT THE LATEST 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF IS BEGINNING TO
COME INTO LINE WITH THE GFS...THAT BRINGS A CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT
FORMS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THAT SPLITTING TROUGH WE ARE EXPECTING
TO GET THE NORTHERN PIECE OF THIS FRIDAY...RIGHT INTO EASTERN GREAT
BASIN. IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST FROM NV/UT
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO BY TUESDAY MORNING. IT COULD
BE PEELING OFF SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE BAJA REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME DECENT RAINFALL POTENTIAL BUT
GIVEN THE RECENT UNCERTAINTY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS LATELY...WENT VERY
CONSERVATIVE WITH POPS BUT AT IS STANDS NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF A WETTING RAIN.
&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN WYOMING UNTIL ABOUT 04Z
WED. GUSTY OUTFLOW WIND TO 35 KNOTS IS LIKELY NEAR STORMS. THE
TERMINAL SITES WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MAY BE IMPACTED BY
SHOWERS OR STORMS. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY AFTER 19Z BUT MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND WEST OF THE
DIVIDE.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER INTO
WEDNESDAY AND BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO MOST OF THE AREA EAST
OF THE DIVIDE. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN
WYOMING AND BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A BREEZE WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS.
&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...ALLEN
AVIATION...HATTINGS
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS






000
FXUS65 KRIW 162046
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
246 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AN WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT MOVED ACROSS IDAHO THIS MORNING
AND BROUGHT SOME SHOWERS WILL CROSS WESTERN WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING AND BRING A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT
WITH DECENT TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTY
WINDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. MEANWHILE...EAST OF THE DIVIDE EXPECT
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXCEPT FOR THE BIG HORN RANGE. GUSTY BREEZES THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA SHOULD
SUBSIDE TONIGHT. SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO WANE TONIGHT BUT NOT END ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

AS FOR WEDNESDAY THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY DRIER AS TODAY`S
SHORTWAVE SHIFTS TO THE EAST. THE MOISTURE FROM OLIDE WILL STILL BE
TO THE SOUTH. THE GFS HAS TRENDED VERY DRY AND THE EUROPEAN IS
FAIRLY DRY AS WELL. THE NAM REMAINS A BIT MORE ACTIVE BUT HOLDS ANY
CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AS A RESULT WE REDUCED
POPS A BIT FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONFINED THEM MAINLY TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...LOOK FOR ANOTHER WARM
DAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE WITH HIGHS RISING WELL INTO THE
80S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WITH LARGELY BENIGN SENSIBLE WEATHER. THERE COULD BE A WEAK
SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD
INTERACTING WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS EARLY...OTHERWISE FAIRLY CALM AND MILD CONDITIONS WED NIGHT.

THE WARM UP CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS NEAR 90 IN THE
BIG HORN BASIN BUT INCREASING CLOUDS WILL LIKELY COUNTERACT ANY
WARMING...ESPECIALLY WITH THE LOWERING SUN ANGLE OF MID SEPTEMBER.
THE BROAD SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING TROUGH TO OUR
WEST WILL ENCOURAGE A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THURSDAY THAT
WILL LIKELY LAST WELL INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
SOMEWHAT BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT ALOFT AS A LEE
SIDE TROUGH DIGS AT THE SURFACE.

A SPLITTING TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY KEEPING SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE WHERE SOME
MORE MOISTURE WILL ENCOURAGE SOME MORE ROBUST CAPE VALUES. A
REINFORCING SHORTWAVE MAY ALSO AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND
COVERAGE DEPENDING ON WHEN IT ARRIVES. OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE A DRY
SATURDAY WITH A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY AS WE GO INTO SUNDAY.
PREVIOUS RUNS HAVE HAD SOLUTIONS THAT WERE COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE
WITH ONE ANOTHER BUT THE LATEST 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF IS BEGINNING TO
COME INTO LINE WITH THE GFS...THAT BRINGS A CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT
FORMS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THAT SPLITTING TROUGH WE ARE EXPECTING
TO GET THE NORTHERN PIECE OF THIS FRIDAY...RIGHT INTO EASTERN GREAT
BASIN. IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST FROM NV/UT
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO BY TUESDAY MORNING. IT COULD
BE PEELING OFF SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE BAJA REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME DECENT RAINFALL POTENTIAL BUT
GIVEN THE RECENT UNCERTAINTY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS LATELY...WENT VERY
CONSERVATIVE WITH POPS BUT AT IS STANDS NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF A WETTING RAIN.
&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN WYOMING UNTIL ABOUT 04Z
WED. GUSTY OUTFLOW WIND TO 35 KNOTS IS LIKELY NEAR STORMS. THE
TERMINAL SITES WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MAY BE IMPACTED BY
SHOWERS OR STORMS. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY AFTER 19Z BUT MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND WEST OF THE
DIVIDE.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER INTO
WEDNESDAY AND BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO MOST OF THE AREA EAST
OF THE DIVIDE. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN
WYOMING AND BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A BREEZE WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS.
&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...ALLEN
AVIATION...HATTINGS
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS






000
FXUS65 KRIW 162046
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
246 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AN WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT MOVED ACROSS IDAHO THIS MORNING
AND BROUGHT SOME SHOWERS WILL CROSS WESTERN WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING AND BRING A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT
WITH DECENT TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTY
WINDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. MEANWHILE...EAST OF THE DIVIDE EXPECT
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXCEPT FOR THE BIG HORN RANGE. GUSTY BREEZES THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA SHOULD
SUBSIDE TONIGHT. SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO WANE TONIGHT BUT NOT END ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

AS FOR WEDNESDAY THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY DRIER AS TODAY`S
SHORTWAVE SHIFTS TO THE EAST. THE MOISTURE FROM OLIDE WILL STILL BE
TO THE SOUTH. THE GFS HAS TRENDED VERY DRY AND THE EUROPEAN IS
FAIRLY DRY AS WELL. THE NAM REMAINS A BIT MORE ACTIVE BUT HOLDS ANY
CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AS A RESULT WE REDUCED
POPS A BIT FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONFINED THEM MAINLY TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...LOOK FOR ANOTHER WARM
DAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE WITH HIGHS RISING WELL INTO THE
80S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WITH LARGELY BENIGN SENSIBLE WEATHER. THERE COULD BE A WEAK
SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD
INTERACTING WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS EARLY...OTHERWISE FAIRLY CALM AND MILD CONDITIONS WED NIGHT.

THE WARM UP CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS NEAR 90 IN THE
BIG HORN BASIN BUT INCREASING CLOUDS WILL LIKELY COUNTERACT ANY
WARMING...ESPECIALLY WITH THE LOWERING SUN ANGLE OF MID SEPTEMBER.
THE BROAD SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING TROUGH TO OUR
WEST WILL ENCOURAGE A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THURSDAY THAT
WILL LIKELY LAST WELL INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
SOMEWHAT BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT ALOFT AS A LEE
SIDE TROUGH DIGS AT THE SURFACE.

A SPLITTING TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY KEEPING SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE WHERE SOME
MORE MOISTURE WILL ENCOURAGE SOME MORE ROBUST CAPE VALUES. A
REINFORCING SHORTWAVE MAY ALSO AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND
COVERAGE DEPENDING ON WHEN IT ARRIVES. OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE A DRY
SATURDAY WITH A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY AS WE GO INTO SUNDAY.
PREVIOUS RUNS HAVE HAD SOLUTIONS THAT WERE COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE
WITH ONE ANOTHER BUT THE LATEST 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF IS BEGINNING TO
COME INTO LINE WITH THE GFS...THAT BRINGS A CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT
FORMS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THAT SPLITTING TROUGH WE ARE EXPECTING
TO GET THE NORTHERN PIECE OF THIS FRIDAY...RIGHT INTO EASTERN GREAT
BASIN. IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST FROM NV/UT
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO BY TUESDAY MORNING. IT COULD
BE PEELING OFF SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE BAJA REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME DECENT RAINFALL POTENTIAL BUT
GIVEN THE RECENT UNCERTAINTY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS LATELY...WENT VERY
CONSERVATIVE WITH POPS BUT AT IS STANDS NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF A WETTING RAIN.
&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN WYOMING UNTIL ABOUT 04Z
WED. GUSTY OUTFLOW WIND TO 35 KNOTS IS LIKELY NEAR STORMS. THE
TERMINAL SITES WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MAY BE IMPACTED BY
SHOWERS OR STORMS. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY AFTER 19Z BUT MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND WEST OF THE
DIVIDE.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER INTO
WEDNESDAY AND BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO MOST OF THE AREA EAST
OF THE DIVIDE. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN
WYOMING AND BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A BREEZE WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS.
&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...ALLEN
AVIATION...HATTINGS
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS






000
FXUS65 KRIW 162046
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
246 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AN WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT MOVED ACROSS IDAHO THIS MORNING
AND BROUGHT SOME SHOWERS WILL CROSS WESTERN WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING AND BRING A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT
WITH DECENT TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTY
WINDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. MEANWHILE...EAST OF THE DIVIDE EXPECT
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXCEPT FOR THE BIG HORN RANGE. GUSTY BREEZES THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA SHOULD
SUBSIDE TONIGHT. SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO WANE TONIGHT BUT NOT END ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

AS FOR WEDNESDAY THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY DRIER AS TODAY`S
SHORTWAVE SHIFTS TO THE EAST. THE MOISTURE FROM OLIDE WILL STILL BE
TO THE SOUTH. THE GFS HAS TRENDED VERY DRY AND THE EUROPEAN IS
FAIRLY DRY AS WELL. THE NAM REMAINS A BIT MORE ACTIVE BUT HOLDS ANY
CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AS A RESULT WE REDUCED
POPS A BIT FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONFINED THEM MAINLY TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...LOOK FOR ANOTHER WARM
DAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE WITH HIGHS RISING WELL INTO THE
80S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WITH LARGELY BENIGN SENSIBLE WEATHER. THERE COULD BE A WEAK
SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD
INTERACTING WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS EARLY...OTHERWISE FAIRLY CALM AND MILD CONDITIONS WED NIGHT.

THE WARM UP CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS NEAR 90 IN THE
BIG HORN BASIN BUT INCREASING CLOUDS WILL LIKELY COUNTERACT ANY
WARMING...ESPECIALLY WITH THE LOWERING SUN ANGLE OF MID SEPTEMBER.
THE BROAD SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING TROUGH TO OUR
WEST WILL ENCOURAGE A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THURSDAY THAT
WILL LIKELY LAST WELL INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
SOMEWHAT BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT ALOFT AS A LEE
SIDE TROUGH DIGS AT THE SURFACE.

A SPLITTING TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY KEEPING SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE WHERE SOME
MORE MOISTURE WILL ENCOURAGE SOME MORE ROBUST CAPE VALUES. A
REINFORCING SHORTWAVE MAY ALSO AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND
COVERAGE DEPENDING ON WHEN IT ARRIVES. OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE A DRY
SATURDAY WITH A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY AS WE GO INTO SUNDAY.
PREVIOUS RUNS HAVE HAD SOLUTIONS THAT WERE COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE
WITH ONE ANOTHER BUT THE LATEST 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF IS BEGINNING TO
COME INTO LINE WITH THE GFS...THAT BRINGS A CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT
FORMS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THAT SPLITTING TROUGH WE ARE EXPECTING
TO GET THE NORTHERN PIECE OF THIS FRIDAY...RIGHT INTO EASTERN GREAT
BASIN. IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST FROM NV/UT
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO BY TUESDAY MORNING. IT COULD
BE PEELING OFF SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE BAJA REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME DECENT RAINFALL POTENTIAL BUT
GIVEN THE RECENT UNCERTAINTY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS LATELY...WENT VERY
CONSERVATIVE WITH POPS BUT AT IS STANDS NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF A WETTING RAIN.
&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN WYOMING UNTIL ABOUT 04Z
WED. GUSTY OUTFLOW WIND TO 35 KNOTS IS LIKELY NEAR STORMS. THE
TERMINAL SITES WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MAY BE IMPACTED BY
SHOWERS OR STORMS. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY AFTER 19Z BUT MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND WEST OF THE
DIVIDE.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER INTO
WEDNESDAY AND BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO MOST OF THE AREA EAST
OF THE DIVIDE. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN
WYOMING AND BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A BREEZE WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS.
&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...ALLEN
AVIATION...HATTINGS
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS






000
FXUS63 KUNR 162044
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
244 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE UPPER RIDGE
CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE WILL
BRING ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN AVERAGE...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS
CLOSEST TO THE THERMAL AXIS OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND FAR
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. LOWS AT NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER PLAINS THURSDAY...FOR OUR WARMEST DAY
OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S ON THE PLAINS. RIDGE
FLATTENS FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROF APPROACHES THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S.
WHILE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE LOW...SO THUNDER NOT LIKELY DURING THE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING...BUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE WARMER AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
IN QUICKLY AND CLEARS SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY. MODELS DIFFER
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE TROF...WITH THE GFS SHOWING DEEPER TROF AND
STRONGER UPPER RIDGE REBOUNDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S...GIVING A MORE
CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW OVER FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...WHICH WOULD BE
COOLER THAN ECMWF ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL...BUT STILL PLEASANT. ECMWF POSITION OF THE CLOSED LOW
OVER GREAT BASIN NEXT WEEK COULD RESULT IN SOME PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES TONITE AND WED. SFC WNDS
WL BE LGT AS A WEAK LEE TROF REMAINS OVER ERN MT-WRN SD-WRN NE.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MLS
LONG TERM...55
AVIATION...55






000
FXUS63 KUNR 162044
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
244 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE UPPER RIDGE
CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE WILL
BRING ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN AVERAGE...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS
CLOSEST TO THE THERMAL AXIS OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND FAR
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. LOWS AT NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER PLAINS THURSDAY...FOR OUR WARMEST DAY
OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S ON THE PLAINS. RIDGE
FLATTENS FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROF APPROACHES THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S.
WHILE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE LOW...SO THUNDER NOT LIKELY DURING THE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING...BUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE WARMER AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
IN QUICKLY AND CLEARS SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY. MODELS DIFFER
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE TROF...WITH THE GFS SHOWING DEEPER TROF AND
STRONGER UPPER RIDGE REBOUNDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S...GIVING A MORE
CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW OVER FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...WHICH WOULD BE
COOLER THAN ECMWF ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL...BUT STILL PLEASANT. ECMWF POSITION OF THE CLOSED LOW
OVER GREAT BASIN NEXT WEEK COULD RESULT IN SOME PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES TONITE AND WED. SFC WNDS
WL BE LGT AS A WEAK LEE TROF REMAINS OVER ERN MT-WRN SD-WRN NE.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MLS
LONG TERM...55
AVIATION...55






000
FXUS63 KUNR 162044
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
244 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE UPPER RIDGE
CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE WILL
BRING ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN AVERAGE...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS
CLOSEST TO THE THERMAL AXIS OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND FAR
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. LOWS AT NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER PLAINS THURSDAY...FOR OUR WARMEST DAY
OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S ON THE PLAINS. RIDGE
FLATTENS FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROF APPROACHES THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S.
WHILE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE LOW...SO THUNDER NOT LIKELY DURING THE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING...BUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE WARMER AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
IN QUICKLY AND CLEARS SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY. MODELS DIFFER
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE TROF...WITH THE GFS SHOWING DEEPER TROF AND
STRONGER UPPER RIDGE REBOUNDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S...GIVING A MORE
CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW OVER FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...WHICH WOULD BE
COOLER THAN ECMWF ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL...BUT STILL PLEASANT. ECMWF POSITION OF THE CLOSED LOW
OVER GREAT BASIN NEXT WEEK COULD RESULT IN SOME PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES TONITE AND WED. SFC WNDS
WL BE LGT AS A WEAK LEE TROF REMAINS OVER ERN MT-WRN SD-WRN NE.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MLS
LONG TERM...55
AVIATION...55






000
FXUS63 KUNR 162044
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
244 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE UPPER RIDGE
CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE WILL
BRING ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN AVERAGE...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS
CLOSEST TO THE THERMAL AXIS OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND FAR
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. LOWS AT NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER PLAINS THURSDAY...FOR OUR WARMEST DAY
OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S ON THE PLAINS. RIDGE
FLATTENS FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROF APPROACHES THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S.
WHILE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE LOW...SO THUNDER NOT LIKELY DURING THE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING...BUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE WARMER AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
IN QUICKLY AND CLEARS SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY. MODELS DIFFER
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE TROF...WITH THE GFS SHOWING DEEPER TROF AND
STRONGER UPPER RIDGE REBOUNDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S...GIVING A MORE
CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW OVER FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...WHICH WOULD BE
COOLER THAN ECMWF ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL...BUT STILL PLEASANT. ECMWF POSITION OF THE CLOSED LOW
OVER GREAT BASIN NEXT WEEK COULD RESULT IN SOME PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES TONITE AND WED. SFC WNDS
WL BE LGT AS A WEAK LEE TROF REMAINS OVER ERN MT-WRN SD-WRN NE.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MLS
LONG TERM...55
AVIATION...55






000
FXUS65 KCYS 161717
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1114 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. AMPLE
SUNSHINE WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH NOT MUCH MORE THAN
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE TODAY AS
A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FRONT SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. TEMPERATURES PRETTY WELL ON TRACK FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S WITH MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

PRETTY BENIGN PATTERN THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE SHORT TERM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER WESTERN WYOMING
THIS MORNING...WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHEAST WINDS EAST. 11-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING THE LOW CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WELL SOUTH OF THE
CWFA OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THIS STRATUS
WILL MAKE ITS WAY UP INTO OUR AREA THIS MORNING. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
HURRICANE ODILE MOVING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW
MEXICO. NOTHING REAL CLOSE TO WYOMING FOR US TO WORRY ABOUT THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

LOOKS MAINLY CLEAR AND DRY AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MOVES EAST TOWARDS WYOMING. SOME PERIODS
OF GUSTY WINDS AS GFS 700MB WINDS INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BUT THEN EASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SO WE SHOULD BE
OK FOR FIRE WEATHER ISSUES EACH DAY. WINDIEST DAY MAY BE THURSDAY
WHERE WE COULD MIX DOWN 25KT WINDS FROM ROUGHLY 550MBS.

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...700MB TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO +14C OVER
CARBON COUNTY AND +12C OVER THE PANHANDLE. WARM DAYTIME HIGHS EACH
DAY...WITH WARMEST DAY THURSDAY. LOOKING AT LOW TO MID 90S IN THE
PANHANDLE WITH LOW 80S WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

UPPER SHORTWAVE STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO WESTERN WYOMING
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON
MOVEMENT AND TIMING. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT MOVING INTO CARBON
COUNTY...EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA LATER
FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
TIME FRAME WILL FEATURE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MIDLVL HIGH THAT IS CENTERED OVER COLORADO ON THURS
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRI IN RESPONSE TO A
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. 700-500MB MOISTURE
INCREASES ON FRI AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.
DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL NOT
IMPACT THE REGION (IT MOVES OVER NEW MEXICO). THE COMBINATION OF
WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS AND SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE CWA THROUGH FRI
EVENING. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ENSUES BY LATE FRI NIGHT WITH THE
FRONT SURGING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. TEMPS ON FRI WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS AND THEN WILL COOL 10-15 DEGREES FOR
SAT. THE WEEKEND LOOKS VERY NICE WITH WEAK WINDS AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. THE ECMWF IS STILL FASTER AT
INCREASING HEIGHTS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY SUN INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. STILL NO GOOD CHANCES OF PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED OTHER
THAN ON FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER WNW FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN WYOMING WILL CREATE WARM TEMPERATURES
AND AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO CREATE ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY. FORTUNATELY...FUELS IN MOST FIRE WEATHER ZONES
ARE REPORTED NON-CRITICAL...SO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD BE
MINIMIZED. NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE
FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST WYOMING FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH WINDS SWITCHING NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB









000
FXUS65 KCYS 161717
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1114 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. AMPLE
SUNSHINE WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH NOT MUCH MORE THAN
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE TODAY AS
A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FRONT SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. TEMPERATURES PRETTY WELL ON TRACK FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S WITH MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

PRETTY BENIGN PATTERN THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE SHORT TERM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER WESTERN WYOMING
THIS MORNING...WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHEAST WINDS EAST. 11-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING THE LOW CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WELL SOUTH OF THE
CWFA OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THIS STRATUS
WILL MAKE ITS WAY UP INTO OUR AREA THIS MORNING. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
HURRICANE ODILE MOVING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW
MEXICO. NOTHING REAL CLOSE TO WYOMING FOR US TO WORRY ABOUT THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

LOOKS MAINLY CLEAR AND DRY AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MOVES EAST TOWARDS WYOMING. SOME PERIODS
OF GUSTY WINDS AS GFS 700MB WINDS INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BUT THEN EASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SO WE SHOULD BE
OK FOR FIRE WEATHER ISSUES EACH DAY. WINDIEST DAY MAY BE THURSDAY
WHERE WE COULD MIX DOWN 25KT WINDS FROM ROUGHLY 550MBS.

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...700MB TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO +14C OVER
CARBON COUNTY AND +12C OVER THE PANHANDLE. WARM DAYTIME HIGHS EACH
DAY...WITH WARMEST DAY THURSDAY. LOOKING AT LOW TO MID 90S IN THE
PANHANDLE WITH LOW 80S WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

UPPER SHORTWAVE STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO WESTERN WYOMING
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON
MOVEMENT AND TIMING. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT MOVING INTO CARBON
COUNTY...EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA LATER
FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
TIME FRAME WILL FEATURE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MIDLVL HIGH THAT IS CENTERED OVER COLORADO ON THURS
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRI IN RESPONSE TO A
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. 700-500MB MOISTURE
INCREASES ON FRI AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.
DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL NOT
IMPACT THE REGION (IT MOVES OVER NEW MEXICO). THE COMBINATION OF
WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS AND SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE CWA THROUGH FRI
EVENING. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ENSUES BY LATE FRI NIGHT WITH THE
FRONT SURGING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. TEMPS ON FRI WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS AND THEN WILL COOL 10-15 DEGREES FOR
SAT. THE WEEKEND LOOKS VERY NICE WITH WEAK WINDS AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. THE ECMWF IS STILL FASTER AT
INCREASING HEIGHTS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY SUN INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. STILL NO GOOD CHANCES OF PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED OTHER
THAN ON FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER WNW FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN WYOMING WILL CREATE WARM TEMPERATURES
AND AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO CREATE ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY. FORTUNATELY...FUELS IN MOST FIRE WEATHER ZONES
ARE REPORTED NON-CRITICAL...SO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD BE
MINIMIZED. NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE
FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST WYOMING FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH WINDS SWITCHING NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB








000
FXUS65 KCYS 161715
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1114 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATED NEEDED AT THIS TIME. AMPLE
SUNSHINE WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH NOT MUCH MORE
THAN A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE
TODAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FRONT SIDE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. TEMPERATURES PRETTY WELL ON TRACK FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S WITH MID TO UPPER 70S IN
THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

PRETTY BENIGN PATTERN THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE SHORT TERM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER WESTERN WYOMING
THIS MORNING...WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHEAST WINDS EAST. 11-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING THE LOW CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WELL SOUTH OF THE
CWFA OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THIS STRATUS
WILL MAKE ITS WAY UP INTO OUR AREA THIS MORNING. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
HURRICANE ODILE MOVING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW
MEXICO. NOTHING REAL CLOSE TO WYOMING FOR US TO WORRY ABOUT THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

LOOKS MAINLY CLEAR AND DRY AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MOVES EAST TOWARDS WYOMING. SOME PERIODS
OF GUSTY WINDS AS GFS 700MB WINDS INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BUT THEN EASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SO WE SHOULD BE
OK FOR FIRE WEATHER ISSUES EACH DAY. WINDIEST DAY MAY BE THURSDAY
WHERE WE COULD MIX DOWN 25KT WINDS FROM ROUGHLY 550MBS.

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...700MB TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO +14C OVER
CARBON COUNTY AND +12C OVER THE PANHANDLE. WARM DAYTIME HIGHS EACH
DAY...WITH WARMEST DAY THURSDAY. LOOKING AT LOW TO MID 90S IN THE
PANHANDLE WITH LOW 80S WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

UPPER SHORTWAVE STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO WESTERN WYOMING
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON
MOVEMENT AND TIMING. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT MOVING INTO CARBON
COUNTY...EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA LATER
FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
TIME FRAME WILL FEATURE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MIDLVL HIGH THAT IS CENTERED OVER COLORADO ON THURS
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRI IN RESPONSE TO A
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. 700-500MB MOISTURE
INCREASES ON FRI AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.
DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL NOT
IMPACT THE REGION (IT MOVES OVER NEW MEXICO). THE COMBINATION OF
WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS AND SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE CWA THROUGH FRI
EVENING. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ENSUES BY LATE FRI NIGHT WITH THE
FRONT SURGING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. TEMPS ON FRI WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS AND THEN WILL COOL 10-15 DEGREES FOR
SAT. THE WEEKEND LOOKS VERY NICE WITH WEAK WINDS AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. THE ECMWF IS STILL FASTER AT
INCREASING HEIGHTS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY SUN INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. STILL NO GOOD CHANCES OF PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED OTHER
THAN ON FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER WNW FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN WYOMING WILL CREATE WARM TEMPERATURES
AND AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO CREATE ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY. FORTUNATELY...FUELS IN MOST FIRE WEATHER ZONES
ARE REPORTED NON-CRITICAL...SO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD BE
MINIMIZED. NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE
FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST WYOMING FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH WINDS SWITCHING NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB





000
FXUS65 KCYS 161715
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1114 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATED NEEDED AT THIS TIME. AMPLE
SUNSHINE WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH NOT MUCH MORE
THAN A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE
TODAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FRONT SIDE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. TEMPERATURES PRETTY WELL ON TRACK FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S WITH MID TO UPPER 70S IN
THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

PRETTY BENIGN PATTERN THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE SHORT TERM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER WESTERN WYOMING
THIS MORNING...WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHEAST WINDS EAST. 11-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING THE LOW CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WELL SOUTH OF THE
CWFA OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THIS STRATUS
WILL MAKE ITS WAY UP INTO OUR AREA THIS MORNING. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
HURRICANE ODILE MOVING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW
MEXICO. NOTHING REAL CLOSE TO WYOMING FOR US TO WORRY ABOUT THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

LOOKS MAINLY CLEAR AND DRY AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MOVES EAST TOWARDS WYOMING. SOME PERIODS
OF GUSTY WINDS AS GFS 700MB WINDS INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BUT THEN EASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SO WE SHOULD BE
OK FOR FIRE WEATHER ISSUES EACH DAY. WINDIEST DAY MAY BE THURSDAY
WHERE WE COULD MIX DOWN 25KT WINDS FROM ROUGHLY 550MBS.

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...700MB TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO +14C OVER
CARBON COUNTY AND +12C OVER THE PANHANDLE. WARM DAYTIME HIGHS EACH
DAY...WITH WARMEST DAY THURSDAY. LOOKING AT LOW TO MID 90S IN THE
PANHANDLE WITH LOW 80S WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

UPPER SHORTWAVE STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO WESTERN WYOMING
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON
MOVEMENT AND TIMING. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT MOVING INTO CARBON
COUNTY...EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA LATER
FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
TIME FRAME WILL FEATURE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MIDLVL HIGH THAT IS CENTERED OVER COLORADO ON THURS
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRI IN RESPONSE TO A
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. 700-500MB MOISTURE
INCREASES ON FRI AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.
DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL NOT
IMPACT THE REGION (IT MOVES OVER NEW MEXICO). THE COMBINATION OF
WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS AND SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE CWA THROUGH FRI
EVENING. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ENSUES BY LATE FRI NIGHT WITH THE
FRONT SURGING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. TEMPS ON FRI WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS AND THEN WILL COOL 10-15 DEGREES FOR
SAT. THE WEEKEND LOOKS VERY NICE WITH WEAK WINDS AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. THE ECMWF IS STILL FASTER AT
INCREASING HEIGHTS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY SUN INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. STILL NO GOOD CHANCES OF PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED OTHER
THAN ON FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER WNW FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN WYOMING WILL CREATE WARM TEMPERATURES
AND AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO CREATE ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY. FORTUNATELY...FUELS IN MOST FIRE WEATHER ZONES
ARE REPORTED NON-CRITICAL...SO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD BE
MINIMIZED. NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE
FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST WYOMING FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH WINDS SWITCHING NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB






000
FXUS63 KUNR 161711
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1111 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1001 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

A WEAK LEE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA
THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TODAY. SKIES
WILL REMAIN SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK...THUS NO CHANGES THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE UPPER
RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOWNSTREAM OF THE
RIDGE WILL BRING ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM
TIME TO TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE
WARMER THAN AVERAGE...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS OVER NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS
TOWARD CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON THURSDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN LATE ON
THURSDAY....AS A WEAK UPPER TROF AND COOL FRONT SLIDE THROUGH THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THE WESTERN RIDGE THEN REFORMS AND BUILDS AGAIN ON
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS FOR THE FORECAST AREA
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 1107 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AFTER CLR SKIES TDA...MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS
A WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE UPPER RIDGE OVR THE ROCKIES TONITE
AND WED. SFC WNDS WL BE LGT AS A WEAK LEE TROF REMAINS OVR ERN MT-
WRN SD-WRN NE.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLS
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...55







000
FXUS63 KUNR 161711
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1111 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1001 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

A WEAK LEE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA
THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TODAY. SKIES
WILL REMAIN SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK...THUS NO CHANGES THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE UPPER
RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOWNSTREAM OF THE
RIDGE WILL BRING ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM
TIME TO TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE
WARMER THAN AVERAGE...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS OVER NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS
TOWARD CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON THURSDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN LATE ON
THURSDAY....AS A WEAK UPPER TROF AND COOL FRONT SLIDE THROUGH THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THE WESTERN RIDGE THEN REFORMS AND BUILDS AGAIN ON
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS FOR THE FORECAST AREA
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 1107 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AFTER CLR SKIES TDA...MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS
A WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE UPPER RIDGE OVR THE ROCKIES TONITE
AND WED. SFC WNDS WL BE LGT AS A WEAK LEE TROF REMAINS OVR ERN MT-
WRN SD-WRN NE.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLS
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...55








000
FXUS65 KRIW 161710
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1109 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
IF WEAK CONVECTION CAN FORM ON A DAY WITH WEATHER FEATURES AS
BENIGN LIKE MONDAY...GIVEN THE WEAK CONVECTION THAT FORMED OVER
EASTERN SWEETWATER AND SOUTHERN NATRONA COUNTIES...THAN SOME
CONVECTION SHOULD FORM ACROSS NW WY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIMITED
HIGH AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE RIDING UP AND OVER THE RIDGE OVER THE
FAR WESTERN UNITED STATES COMBINED WITH NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES
WILL RESULT IN ISOLD AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
COVERAGE IN THE MTNS TODAY. ALSO...THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH OFF
THE PACIFIC COAST NOW OUT AT 140W HAS EJECTED A SHORTWAVE THAT
WILL DELIVER THIS MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MORE MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL
PACIFIC...NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES AND FAIRLY HIGH CAPES FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED LATE DAY
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY WESTERN WYOMING. THEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH NOW AT 140W WILL APPROACH THE ROCKIES THURSDAY AND WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCES OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
WEST WITH POPS BETWEEN 50 AND 60 IN THE WESTERN MTNS AND ISOLD
EAST. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WILL ORIGINATE FROM ODILE. THE RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND WEDNESDAY ALONG
WITH CONTINUED WARMING TEMPS. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
LOW 80S AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND 75 TO 80
WEST. BY WEDNESDAY...HIGHS IN THE MID 80S EAST AND AROUND 80 WEST.
THE MODELS WANT TO CONTINUE TO WARM US UP THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS
NEAR 90 IN THE BIG HORN BASIN BUT INCREASING CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
COUNTERACT ANY WARMING...ESPECIALLY WITH THE LOWERING SUN ANGLE OF
MID SEPTEMBER. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LAST WELL INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WEST WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SPLITTING TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. SOUTHERN PIECE
IMPACTS THE FAR SOUTH WITH SOME INCREASED MOISTURE AND SUPPORT AS
FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
OF .75 TO .90 ARE FORECAST BY THE GFS IN THE FAR NORTH AND EAST. THE
COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND BACKS UP NEAR THE DIVIDE
ON FRIDAY WITH SOME MODEST CAPES POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER PW AIR.
SEWD MOVING SHORTWAVE MAY ALSO AID IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT.
OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE A DRY MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WITH RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE WEST. WYOMING REMAINS IN A SOMEWHAT COOLER/MILD
AND DRY NW FLOW. LOOKS LIKE A SPECTACULAR START TO FALL EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD IN THE 70S
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATION WITH 50S AND 60S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.
ABOUT THE ONLY THING TO WATCH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE WHERE THE
SRN PIECE OF OUR REMNANT LOW WILL BE. THE ECMWF IS MUCH FURTHER
SOUTH TONIGHT WHILE THE GFS IS ACROSS SRN UT WITH MOISTURE PUSHING
NWD TO NEAR THE SRN WYO BORDER ON MONDAY. GOING DRY RIGHT NOW BUT
IT`S WORTH WATCHING TO SEE IF ANY MOISTURE CAN MAKE IT INTO AT
LEAST SWEETWATER COUNTY WITH TIME. OTHERWISE...DRY WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WINDS AND OVERALL PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ONCE WE GET BY
OUR FRIDAY SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL FORM OVER WESTERN WY AFTER 18Z AND CONTINUE UNTIL
ABOUT 04Z WED. GUSTY OUTFLOW WIND TO 35 KNOTS IS LIKELY NEAR STORMS.
THE TERMINAL SITES WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MAY BE IMPACTED BY
SHOWERS OR STORMS. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY BUT THE VAST MAJORITY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A BUILDING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. A BIT OF BREEZE MAY
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN WIND CORRIDOR BUT
SHOULD MAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS. THE CHANCES OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH
APPROACHES. WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY AS WELL.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...HATTINGS
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON












000
FXUS65 KRIW 161710
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1109 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
IF WEAK CONVECTION CAN FORM ON A DAY WITH WEATHER FEATURES AS
BENIGN LIKE MONDAY...GIVEN THE WEAK CONVECTION THAT FORMED OVER
EASTERN SWEETWATER AND SOUTHERN NATRONA COUNTIES...THAN SOME
CONVECTION SHOULD FORM ACROSS NW WY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIMITED
HIGH AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE RIDING UP AND OVER THE RIDGE OVER THE
FAR WESTERN UNITED STATES COMBINED WITH NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES
WILL RESULT IN ISOLD AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
COVERAGE IN THE MTNS TODAY. ALSO...THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH OFF
THE PACIFIC COAST NOW OUT AT 140W HAS EJECTED A SHORTWAVE THAT
WILL DELIVER THIS MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MORE MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL
PACIFIC...NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES AND FAIRLY HIGH CAPES FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED LATE DAY
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY WESTERN WYOMING. THEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH NOW AT 140W WILL APPROACH THE ROCKIES THURSDAY AND WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCES OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
WEST WITH POPS BETWEEN 50 AND 60 IN THE WESTERN MTNS AND ISOLD
EAST. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WILL ORIGINATE FROM ODILE. THE RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND WEDNESDAY ALONG
WITH CONTINUED WARMING TEMPS. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
LOW 80S AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND 75 TO 80
WEST. BY WEDNESDAY...HIGHS IN THE MID 80S EAST AND AROUND 80 WEST.
THE MODELS WANT TO CONTINUE TO WARM US UP THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS
NEAR 90 IN THE BIG HORN BASIN BUT INCREASING CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
COUNTERACT ANY WARMING...ESPECIALLY WITH THE LOWERING SUN ANGLE OF
MID SEPTEMBER. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LAST WELL INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WEST WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SPLITTING TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. SOUTHERN PIECE
IMPACTS THE FAR SOUTH WITH SOME INCREASED MOISTURE AND SUPPORT AS
FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
OF .75 TO .90 ARE FORECAST BY THE GFS IN THE FAR NORTH AND EAST. THE
COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND BACKS UP NEAR THE DIVIDE
ON FRIDAY WITH SOME MODEST CAPES POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER PW AIR.
SEWD MOVING SHORTWAVE MAY ALSO AID IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT.
OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE A DRY MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WITH RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE WEST. WYOMING REMAINS IN A SOMEWHAT COOLER/MILD
AND DRY NW FLOW. LOOKS LIKE A SPECTACULAR START TO FALL EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD IN THE 70S
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATION WITH 50S AND 60S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.
ABOUT THE ONLY THING TO WATCH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE WHERE THE
SRN PIECE OF OUR REMNANT LOW WILL BE. THE ECMWF IS MUCH FURTHER
SOUTH TONIGHT WHILE THE GFS IS ACROSS SRN UT WITH MOISTURE PUSHING
NWD TO NEAR THE SRN WYO BORDER ON MONDAY. GOING DRY RIGHT NOW BUT
IT`S WORTH WATCHING TO SEE IF ANY MOISTURE CAN MAKE IT INTO AT
LEAST SWEETWATER COUNTY WITH TIME. OTHERWISE...DRY WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WINDS AND OVERALL PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ONCE WE GET BY
OUR FRIDAY SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL FORM OVER WESTERN WY AFTER 18Z AND CONTINUE UNTIL
ABOUT 04Z WED. GUSTY OUTFLOW WIND TO 35 KNOTS IS LIKELY NEAR STORMS.
THE TERMINAL SITES WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MAY BE IMPACTED BY
SHOWERS OR STORMS. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY BUT THE VAST MAJORITY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A BUILDING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. A BIT OF BREEZE MAY
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN WIND CORRIDOR BUT
SHOULD MAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS. THE CHANCES OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH
APPROACHES. WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY AS WELL.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...HATTINGS
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON













000
FXUS63 KUNR 161608
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1008 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1001 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

A WEAK LEE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA
THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TODAY. SKIES
WILL REMAIN SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK...THUS NO CHANGES THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE UPPER
RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOWNSTREAM OF THE
RIDGE WILL BRING ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM
TIME TO TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE
WARMER THAN AVERAGE...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS OVER NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS
TOWARD CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON THURSDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN LATE ON
THURSDAY....AS A WEAK UPPER TROF AND COOL FRONT SLIDE THROUGH THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THE WESTERN RIDGE THEN REFORMS AND BUILDS AGAIN ON
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS FOR THE FORECAST AREA
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 526 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLS
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15






000
FXUS63 KUNR 161608
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1008 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1001 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

A WEAK LEE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA
THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TODAY. SKIES
WILL REMAIN SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK...THUS NO CHANGES THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE UPPER
RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOWNSTREAM OF THE
RIDGE WILL BRING ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM
TIME TO TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE
WARMER THAN AVERAGE...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS OVER NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS
TOWARD CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON THURSDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN LATE ON
THURSDAY....AS A WEAK UPPER TROF AND COOL FRONT SLIDE THROUGH THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THE WESTERN RIDGE THEN REFORMS AND BUILDS AGAIN ON
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS FOR THE FORECAST AREA
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 526 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLS
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15






000
FXUS63 KUNR 161608
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1008 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1001 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

A WEAK LEE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA
THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TODAY. SKIES
WILL REMAIN SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK...THUS NO CHANGES THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE UPPER
RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOWNSTREAM OF THE
RIDGE WILL BRING ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM
TIME TO TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE
WARMER THAN AVERAGE...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS OVER NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS
TOWARD CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON THURSDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN LATE ON
THURSDAY....AS A WEAK UPPER TROF AND COOL FRONT SLIDE THROUGH THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THE WESTERN RIDGE THEN REFORMS AND BUILDS AGAIN ON
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS FOR THE FORECAST AREA
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 526 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLS
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15






000
FXUS63 KUNR 161608
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1008 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1001 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

A WEAK LEE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA
THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TODAY. SKIES
WILL REMAIN SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK...THUS NO CHANGES THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE UPPER
RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOWNSTREAM OF THE
RIDGE WILL BRING ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM
TIME TO TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE
WARMER THAN AVERAGE...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS OVER NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS
TOWARD CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON THURSDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN LATE ON
THURSDAY....AS A WEAK UPPER TROF AND COOL FRONT SLIDE THROUGH THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THE WESTERN RIDGE THEN REFORMS AND BUILDS AGAIN ON
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS FOR THE FORECAST AREA
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 526 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLS
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15






000
FXUS65 KCYS 161603
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1003 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATED NEEDED AT THIS TIME. AMPLE
SUNSHINE WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH NOT MUCH MORE
THAN A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE
TODAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FRONT SIDE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. TEMPERATURES PRETTY WELL ON TRACK FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S WITH MID TO UPPER 70S IN
THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

PRETTY BENIGN PATTERN THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE SHORT TERM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER WESTERN WYOMING
THIS MORNING...WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHEAST WINDS EAST. 11-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING THE LOW CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WELL SOUTH OF THE
CWFA OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THIS STRATUS
WILL MAKE ITS WAY UP INTO OUR AREA THIS MORNING. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
HURRICANE ODILE MOVING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW
MEXICO. NOTHING REAL CLOSE TO WYOMING FOR US TO WORRY ABOUT THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

LOOKS MAINLY CLEAR AND DRY AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MOVES EAST TOWARDS WYOMING. SOME PERIODS
OF GUSTY WINDS AS GFS 700MB WINDS INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BUT THEN EASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SO WE SHOULD BE
OK FOR FIRE WEATHER ISSUES EACH DAY. WINDIEST DAY MAY BE THURSDAY
WHERE WE COULD MIX DOWN 25KT WINDS FROM ROUGHLY 550MBS.

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...700MB TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO +14C OVER
CARBON COUNTY AND +12C OVER THE PANHANDLE. WARM DAYTIME HIGHS EACH
DAY...WITH WARMEST DAY THURSDAY. LOOKING AT LOW TO MID 90S IN THE
PANHANDLE WITH LOW 80S WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

UPPER SHORTWAVE STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO WESTERN WYOMING
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON
MOVEMENT AND TIMING. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT MOVING INTO CARBON
COUNTY...EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA LATER
FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
TIME FRAME WILL FEATURE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MIDLVL HIGH THAT IS CENTERED OVER COLORADO ON THURS
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRI IN RESPONSE TO A
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. 700-500MB MOISTURE
INCREASES ON FRI AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.
DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL NOT
IMPACT THE REGION (IT MOVES OVER NEW MEXICO). THE COMBINATION OF
WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS AND SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE CWA THROUGH FRI
EVENING. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ENSUES BY LATE FRI NIGHT WITH THE
FRONT SURGING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. TEMPS ON FRI WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS AND THEN WILL COOL 10-15 DEGREES FOR
SAT. THE WEEKEND LOOKS VERY NICE WITH WEAK WINDS AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. THE ECMWF IS STILL FASTER AT
INCREASING HEIGHTS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY SUN INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. STILL NO GOOD CHANCES OF PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED OTHER
THAN ON FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 542 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE COULD BE BRIEF
PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AT SNY AND AIA THROUGH AROUND 14Z...HOWEVER
PERSISTENT IFR CIGS ARE NOT EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE BY MID MORNING OVER SOUTHEAST WY AND OCCASIONALLY GUST TO
15-25 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN WYOMING WILL CREATE WARM TEMPERATURES
AND AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO CREATE ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY. FORTUNATELY...FUELS IN MOST FIRE WEATHER ZONES
ARE REPORTED NON-CRITICAL...SO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD BE
MINIMIZED. NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE
FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST WYOMING FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH WINDS SWITCHING NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB







000
FXUS65 KCYS 161603
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1003 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATED NEEDED AT THIS TIME. AMPLE
SUNSHINE WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH NOT MUCH MORE
THAN A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE
TODAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FRONT SIDE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. TEMPERATURES PRETTY WELL ON TRACK FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S WITH MID TO UPPER 70S IN
THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

PRETTY BENIGN PATTERN THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE SHORT TERM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER WESTERN WYOMING
THIS MORNING...WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHEAST WINDS EAST. 11-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING THE LOW CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WELL SOUTH OF THE
CWFA OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THIS STRATUS
WILL MAKE ITS WAY UP INTO OUR AREA THIS MORNING. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
HURRICANE ODILE MOVING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW
MEXICO. NOTHING REAL CLOSE TO WYOMING FOR US TO WORRY ABOUT THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

LOOKS MAINLY CLEAR AND DRY AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MOVES EAST TOWARDS WYOMING. SOME PERIODS
OF GUSTY WINDS AS GFS 700MB WINDS INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BUT THEN EASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SO WE SHOULD BE
OK FOR FIRE WEATHER ISSUES EACH DAY. WINDIEST DAY MAY BE THURSDAY
WHERE WE COULD MIX DOWN 25KT WINDS FROM ROUGHLY 550MBS.

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...700MB TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO +14C OVER
CARBON COUNTY AND +12C OVER THE PANHANDLE. WARM DAYTIME HIGHS EACH
DAY...WITH WARMEST DAY THURSDAY. LOOKING AT LOW TO MID 90S IN THE
PANHANDLE WITH LOW 80S WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

UPPER SHORTWAVE STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO WESTERN WYOMING
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON
MOVEMENT AND TIMING. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT MOVING INTO CARBON
COUNTY...EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA LATER
FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
TIME FRAME WILL FEATURE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MIDLVL HIGH THAT IS CENTERED OVER COLORADO ON THURS
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRI IN RESPONSE TO A
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. 700-500MB MOISTURE
INCREASES ON FRI AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.
DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL NOT
IMPACT THE REGION (IT MOVES OVER NEW MEXICO). THE COMBINATION OF
WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS AND SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE CWA THROUGH FRI
EVENING. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ENSUES BY LATE FRI NIGHT WITH THE
FRONT SURGING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. TEMPS ON FRI WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS AND THEN WILL COOL 10-15 DEGREES FOR
SAT. THE WEEKEND LOOKS VERY NICE WITH WEAK WINDS AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. THE ECMWF IS STILL FASTER AT
INCREASING HEIGHTS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY SUN INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. STILL NO GOOD CHANCES OF PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED OTHER
THAN ON FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 542 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE COULD BE BRIEF
PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AT SNY AND AIA THROUGH AROUND 14Z...HOWEVER
PERSISTENT IFR CIGS ARE NOT EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE BY MID MORNING OVER SOUTHEAST WY AND OCCASIONALLY GUST TO
15-25 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN WYOMING WILL CREATE WARM TEMPERATURES
AND AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO CREATE ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY. FORTUNATELY...FUELS IN MOST FIRE WEATHER ZONES
ARE REPORTED NON-CRITICAL...SO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD BE
MINIMIZED. NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE
FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST WYOMING FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH WINDS SWITCHING NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB







000
FXUS65 KCYS 161603
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1003 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATED NEEDED AT THIS TIME. AMPLE
SUNSHINE WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH NOT MUCH MORE
THAN A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE
TODAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FRONT SIDE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. TEMPERATURES PRETTY WELL ON TRACK FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S WITH MID TO UPPER 70S IN
THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

PRETTY BENIGN PATTERN THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE SHORT TERM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER WESTERN WYOMING
THIS MORNING...WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHEAST WINDS EAST. 11-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING THE LOW CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WELL SOUTH OF THE
CWFA OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THIS STRATUS
WILL MAKE ITS WAY UP INTO OUR AREA THIS MORNING. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
HURRICANE ODILE MOVING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW
MEXICO. NOTHING REAL CLOSE TO WYOMING FOR US TO WORRY ABOUT THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

LOOKS MAINLY CLEAR AND DRY AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MOVES EAST TOWARDS WYOMING. SOME PERIODS
OF GUSTY WINDS AS GFS 700MB WINDS INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BUT THEN EASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SO WE SHOULD BE
OK FOR FIRE WEATHER ISSUES EACH DAY. WINDIEST DAY MAY BE THURSDAY
WHERE WE COULD MIX DOWN 25KT WINDS FROM ROUGHLY 550MBS.

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...700MB TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO +14C OVER
CARBON COUNTY AND +12C OVER THE PANHANDLE. WARM DAYTIME HIGHS EACH
DAY...WITH WARMEST DAY THURSDAY. LOOKING AT LOW TO MID 90S IN THE
PANHANDLE WITH LOW 80S WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

UPPER SHORTWAVE STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO WESTERN WYOMING
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON
MOVEMENT AND TIMING. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT MOVING INTO CARBON
COUNTY...EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA LATER
FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
TIME FRAME WILL FEATURE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MIDLVL HIGH THAT IS CENTERED OVER COLORADO ON THURS
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRI IN RESPONSE TO A
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. 700-500MB MOISTURE
INCREASES ON FRI AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.
DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL NOT
IMPACT THE REGION (IT MOVES OVER NEW MEXICO). THE COMBINATION OF
WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS AND SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE CWA THROUGH FRI
EVENING. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ENSUES BY LATE FRI NIGHT WITH THE
FRONT SURGING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. TEMPS ON FRI WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS AND THEN WILL COOL 10-15 DEGREES FOR
SAT. THE WEEKEND LOOKS VERY NICE WITH WEAK WINDS AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. THE ECMWF IS STILL FASTER AT
INCREASING HEIGHTS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY SUN INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. STILL NO GOOD CHANCES OF PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED OTHER
THAN ON FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 542 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE COULD BE BRIEF
PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AT SNY AND AIA THROUGH AROUND 14Z...HOWEVER
PERSISTENT IFR CIGS ARE NOT EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE BY MID MORNING OVER SOUTHEAST WY AND OCCASIONALLY GUST TO
15-25 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN WYOMING WILL CREATE WARM TEMPERATURES
AND AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO CREATE ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY. FORTUNATELY...FUELS IN MOST FIRE WEATHER ZONES
ARE REPORTED NON-CRITICAL...SO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD BE
MINIMIZED. NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE
FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST WYOMING FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH WINDS SWITCHING NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB







000
FXUS65 KCYS 161603
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1003 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATED NEEDED AT THIS TIME. AMPLE
SUNSHINE WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH NOT MUCH MORE
THAN A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE
TODAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FRONT SIDE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. TEMPERATURES PRETTY WELL ON TRACK FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S WITH MID TO UPPER 70S IN
THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

PRETTY BENIGN PATTERN THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE SHORT TERM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER WESTERN WYOMING
THIS MORNING...WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHEAST WINDS EAST. 11-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING THE LOW CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WELL SOUTH OF THE
CWFA OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THIS STRATUS
WILL MAKE ITS WAY UP INTO OUR AREA THIS MORNING. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
HURRICANE ODILE MOVING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW
MEXICO. NOTHING REAL CLOSE TO WYOMING FOR US TO WORRY ABOUT THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

LOOKS MAINLY CLEAR AND DRY AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MOVES EAST TOWARDS WYOMING. SOME PERIODS
OF GUSTY WINDS AS GFS 700MB WINDS INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BUT THEN EASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SO WE SHOULD BE
OK FOR FIRE WEATHER ISSUES EACH DAY. WINDIEST DAY MAY BE THURSDAY
WHERE WE COULD MIX DOWN 25KT WINDS FROM ROUGHLY 550MBS.

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...700MB TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO +14C OVER
CARBON COUNTY AND +12C OVER THE PANHANDLE. WARM DAYTIME HIGHS EACH
DAY...WITH WARMEST DAY THURSDAY. LOOKING AT LOW TO MID 90S IN THE
PANHANDLE WITH LOW 80S WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

UPPER SHORTWAVE STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO WESTERN WYOMING
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON
MOVEMENT AND TIMING. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT MOVING INTO CARBON
COUNTY...EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA LATER
FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
TIME FRAME WILL FEATURE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MIDLVL HIGH THAT IS CENTERED OVER COLORADO ON THURS
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRI IN RESPONSE TO A
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. 700-500MB MOISTURE
INCREASES ON FRI AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.
DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL NOT
IMPACT THE REGION (IT MOVES OVER NEW MEXICO). THE COMBINATION OF
WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS AND SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE CWA THROUGH FRI
EVENING. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ENSUES BY LATE FRI NIGHT WITH THE
FRONT SURGING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. TEMPS ON FRI WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS AND THEN WILL COOL 10-15 DEGREES FOR
SAT. THE WEEKEND LOOKS VERY NICE WITH WEAK WINDS AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. THE ECMWF IS STILL FASTER AT
INCREASING HEIGHTS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY SUN INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. STILL NO GOOD CHANCES OF PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED OTHER
THAN ON FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 542 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE COULD BE BRIEF
PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AT SNY AND AIA THROUGH AROUND 14Z...HOWEVER
PERSISTENT IFR CIGS ARE NOT EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE BY MID MORNING OVER SOUTHEAST WY AND OCCASIONALLY GUST TO
15-25 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN WYOMING WILL CREATE WARM TEMPERATURES
AND AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO CREATE ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY. FORTUNATELY...FUELS IN MOST FIRE WEATHER ZONES
ARE REPORTED NON-CRITICAL...SO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD BE
MINIMIZED. NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE
FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST WYOMING FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH WINDS SWITCHING NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB







000
FXUS65 KCYS 161151
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
551 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

PRETTY BENIGN PATTERN THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE SHORT TERM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER WESTERN WYOMING
THIS MORNING...WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHEAST WINDS EAST. 11-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING THE LOW CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WELL SOUTH OF THE
CWFA OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THIS STRATUS
WILL MAKE ITS WAY UP INTO OUR AREA THIS MORNING. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
HURRICANE ODILE MOVING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW
MEXICO. NOTHING REAL CLOSE TO WYOMING FOR US TO WORRY ABOUT THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

LOOKS MAINLY CLEAR AND DRY AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MOVES EAST TOWARDS WYOMING. SOME PERIODS
OF GUSTY WINDS AS GFS 700MB WINDS INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BUT THEN EASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SO WE SHOULD BE
OK FOR FIRE WEATHER ISSUES EACH DAY. WINDIEST DAY MAY BE THURSDAY
WHERE WE COULD MIX DOWN 25KT WINDS FROM ROUGHLY 550MBS.

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...700MB TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO +14C OVER
CARBON COUNTY AND +12C OVER THE PANHANDLE. WARM DAYTIME HIGHS EACH
DAY...WITH WARMEST DAY THURSDAY. LOOKING AT LOW TO MID 90S IN THE
PANHANDLE WITH LOW 80S WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

UPPER SHORTWAVE STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO WESTERN WYOMING
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON
MOVEMENT AND TIMING. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT MOVING INTO CARBON
COUNTY...EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA LATER
FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
TIME FRAME WILL FEATURE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MIDLVL HIGH THAT IS CENTERED OVER COLORADO ON THURS
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRI IN RESPONSE TO A
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. 700-500MB MOISTURE
INCREASES ON FRI AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.
DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL NOT
IMPACT THE REGION (IT MOVES OVER NEW MEXICO). THE COMBINATION OF
WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS AND SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE CWA THROUGH FRI
EVENING. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ENSUES BY LATE FRI NIGHT WITH THE
FRONT SURGING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. TEMPS ON FRI WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS AND THEN WILL COOL 10-15 DEGREES FOR
SAT. THE WEEKEND LOOKS VERY NICE WITH WEAK WINDS AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. THE ECMWF IS STILL FASTER AT
INCREASING HEIGHTS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY SUN INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. STILL NO GOOD CHANCES OF PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED OTHER
THAN ON FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 542 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE COULD BE BRIEF
PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AT SNY AND AIA THROUGH AROUND 14Z...HOWEVER
PERSISTENT IFR CIGS ARE NOT EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE BY MID MORNING OVER SOUTHEAST WY AND OCCASIONALLY GUST TO
15-25 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN WYOMING WILL CREATE WARM TEMPERATURES
AND AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO CREATE ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY. FORTUNATELY...FUELS IN MOST FIRE WEATHER ZONES
ARE REPORTED NON-CRITICAL...SO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD BE
MINIMIZED. NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE
FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST WYOMING FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH WINDS SWITCHING NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB






000
FXUS65 KCYS 161151
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
551 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

PRETTY BENIGN PATTERN THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE SHORT TERM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER WESTERN WYOMING
THIS MORNING...WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHEAST WINDS EAST. 11-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING THE LOW CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WELL SOUTH OF THE
CWFA OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THIS STRATUS
WILL MAKE ITS WAY UP INTO OUR AREA THIS MORNING. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
HURRICANE ODILE MOVING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW
MEXICO. NOTHING REAL CLOSE TO WYOMING FOR US TO WORRY ABOUT THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

LOOKS MAINLY CLEAR AND DRY AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MOVES EAST TOWARDS WYOMING. SOME PERIODS
OF GUSTY WINDS AS GFS 700MB WINDS INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BUT THEN EASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SO WE SHOULD BE
OK FOR FIRE WEATHER ISSUES EACH DAY. WINDIEST DAY MAY BE THURSDAY
WHERE WE COULD MIX DOWN 25KT WINDS FROM ROUGHLY 550MBS.

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...700MB TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO +14C OVER
CARBON COUNTY AND +12C OVER THE PANHANDLE. WARM DAYTIME HIGHS EACH
DAY...WITH WARMEST DAY THURSDAY. LOOKING AT LOW TO MID 90S IN THE
PANHANDLE WITH LOW 80S WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

UPPER SHORTWAVE STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO WESTERN WYOMING
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON
MOVEMENT AND TIMING. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT MOVING INTO CARBON
COUNTY...EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA LATER
FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
TIME FRAME WILL FEATURE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MIDLVL HIGH THAT IS CENTERED OVER COLORADO ON THURS
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRI IN RESPONSE TO A
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. 700-500MB MOISTURE
INCREASES ON FRI AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.
DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL NOT
IMPACT THE REGION (IT MOVES OVER NEW MEXICO). THE COMBINATION OF
WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS AND SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE CWA THROUGH FRI
EVENING. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ENSUES BY LATE FRI NIGHT WITH THE
FRONT SURGING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. TEMPS ON FRI WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS AND THEN WILL COOL 10-15 DEGREES FOR
SAT. THE WEEKEND LOOKS VERY NICE WITH WEAK WINDS AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. THE ECMWF IS STILL FASTER AT
INCREASING HEIGHTS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY SUN INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. STILL NO GOOD CHANCES OF PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED OTHER
THAN ON FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 542 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE COULD BE BRIEF
PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AT SNY AND AIA THROUGH AROUND 14Z...HOWEVER
PERSISTENT IFR CIGS ARE NOT EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE BY MID MORNING OVER SOUTHEAST WY AND OCCASIONALLY GUST TO
15-25 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN WYOMING WILL CREATE WARM TEMPERATURES
AND AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO CREATE ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY. FORTUNATELY...FUELS IN MOST FIRE WEATHER ZONES
ARE REPORTED NON-CRITICAL...SO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD BE
MINIMIZED. NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE
FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST WYOMING FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH WINDS SWITCHING NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB






000
FXUS65 KCYS 161151
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
551 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

PRETTY BENIGN PATTERN THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE SHORT TERM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER WESTERN WYOMING
THIS MORNING...WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHEAST WINDS EAST. 11-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING THE LOW CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WELL SOUTH OF THE
CWFA OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THIS STRATUS
WILL MAKE ITS WAY UP INTO OUR AREA THIS MORNING. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
HURRICANE ODILE MOVING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW
MEXICO. NOTHING REAL CLOSE TO WYOMING FOR US TO WORRY ABOUT THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

LOOKS MAINLY CLEAR AND DRY AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MOVES EAST TOWARDS WYOMING. SOME PERIODS
OF GUSTY WINDS AS GFS 700MB WINDS INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BUT THEN EASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SO WE SHOULD BE
OK FOR FIRE WEATHER ISSUES EACH DAY. WINDIEST DAY MAY BE THURSDAY
WHERE WE COULD MIX DOWN 25KT WINDS FROM ROUGHLY 550MBS.

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...700MB TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO +14C OVER
CARBON COUNTY AND +12C OVER THE PANHANDLE. WARM DAYTIME HIGHS EACH
DAY...WITH WARMEST DAY THURSDAY. LOOKING AT LOW TO MID 90S IN THE
PANHANDLE WITH LOW 80S WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

UPPER SHORTWAVE STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO WESTERN WYOMING
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON
MOVEMENT AND TIMING. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT MOVING INTO CARBON
COUNTY...EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA LATER
FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
TIME FRAME WILL FEATURE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MIDLVL HIGH THAT IS CENTERED OVER COLORADO ON THURS
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRI IN RESPONSE TO A
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. 700-500MB MOISTURE
INCREASES ON FRI AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.
DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL NOT
IMPACT THE REGION (IT MOVES OVER NEW MEXICO). THE COMBINATION OF
WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS AND SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE CWA THROUGH FRI
EVENING. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ENSUES BY LATE FRI NIGHT WITH THE
FRONT SURGING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. TEMPS ON FRI WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS AND THEN WILL COOL 10-15 DEGREES FOR
SAT. THE WEEKEND LOOKS VERY NICE WITH WEAK WINDS AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. THE ECMWF IS STILL FASTER AT
INCREASING HEIGHTS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY SUN INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. STILL NO GOOD CHANCES OF PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED OTHER
THAN ON FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 542 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE COULD BE BRIEF
PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AT SNY AND AIA THROUGH AROUND 14Z...HOWEVER
PERSISTENT IFR CIGS ARE NOT EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE BY MID MORNING OVER SOUTHEAST WY AND OCCASIONALLY GUST TO
15-25 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN WYOMING WILL CREATE WARM TEMPERATURES
AND AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO CREATE ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY. FORTUNATELY...FUELS IN MOST FIRE WEATHER ZONES
ARE REPORTED NON-CRITICAL...SO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD BE
MINIMIZED. NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE
FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST WYOMING FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH WINDS SWITCHING NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB






000
FXUS65 KCYS 161151
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
551 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

PRETTY BENIGN PATTERN THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE SHORT TERM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER WESTERN WYOMING
THIS MORNING...WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHEAST WINDS EAST. 11-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING THE LOW CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WELL SOUTH OF THE
CWFA OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THIS STRATUS
WILL MAKE ITS WAY UP INTO OUR AREA THIS MORNING. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
HURRICANE ODILE MOVING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW
MEXICO. NOTHING REAL CLOSE TO WYOMING FOR US TO WORRY ABOUT THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

LOOKS MAINLY CLEAR AND DRY AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MOVES EAST TOWARDS WYOMING. SOME PERIODS
OF GUSTY WINDS AS GFS 700MB WINDS INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BUT THEN EASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SO WE SHOULD BE
OK FOR FIRE WEATHER ISSUES EACH DAY. WINDIEST DAY MAY BE THURSDAY
WHERE WE COULD MIX DOWN 25KT WINDS FROM ROUGHLY 550MBS.

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...700MB TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO +14C OVER
CARBON COUNTY AND +12C OVER THE PANHANDLE. WARM DAYTIME HIGHS EACH
DAY...WITH WARMEST DAY THURSDAY. LOOKING AT LOW TO MID 90S IN THE
PANHANDLE WITH LOW 80S WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

UPPER SHORTWAVE STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO WESTERN WYOMING
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON
MOVEMENT AND TIMING. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT MOVING INTO CARBON
COUNTY...EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA LATER
FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
TIME FRAME WILL FEATURE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MIDLVL HIGH THAT IS CENTERED OVER COLORADO ON THURS
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRI IN RESPONSE TO A
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. 700-500MB MOISTURE
INCREASES ON FRI AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.
DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL NOT
IMPACT THE REGION (IT MOVES OVER NEW MEXICO). THE COMBINATION OF
WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS AND SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE CWA THROUGH FRI
EVENING. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ENSUES BY LATE FRI NIGHT WITH THE
FRONT SURGING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. TEMPS ON FRI WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS AND THEN WILL COOL 10-15 DEGREES FOR
SAT. THE WEEKEND LOOKS VERY NICE WITH WEAK WINDS AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. THE ECMWF IS STILL FASTER AT
INCREASING HEIGHTS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY SUN INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. STILL NO GOOD CHANCES OF PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED OTHER
THAN ON FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 542 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE COULD BE BRIEF
PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AT SNY AND AIA THROUGH AROUND 14Z...HOWEVER
PERSISTENT IFR CIGS ARE NOT EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE BY MID MORNING OVER SOUTHEAST WY AND OCCASIONALLY GUST TO
15-25 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN WYOMING WILL CREATE WARM TEMPERATURES
AND AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO CREATE ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY. FORTUNATELY...FUELS IN MOST FIRE WEATHER ZONES
ARE REPORTED NON-CRITICAL...SO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD BE
MINIMIZED. NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE
FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST WYOMING FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH WINDS SWITCHING NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB






000
FXUS63 KUNR 161126
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
526 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE UPPER
RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOWNSTREAM OF THE
RIDGE WILL BRING ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM
TIME TO TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE
WARMER THAN AVERAGE...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS OVER NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS
TOWARD CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON THURSDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN LATE ON
THURSDAY....AS A WEAK UPPER TROF AND COOL FRONT SLIDE THROUGH THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THE WESTERN RIDGE THEN REFORMS AND BUILDS AGAIN ON
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS FOR THE FORECAST AREA
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 526 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15







000
FXUS63 KUNR 161126
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
526 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE UPPER
RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOWNSTREAM OF THE
RIDGE WILL BRING ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM
TIME TO TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE
WARMER THAN AVERAGE...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS OVER NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS
TOWARD CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON THURSDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN LATE ON
THURSDAY....AS A WEAK UPPER TROF AND COOL FRONT SLIDE THROUGH THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THE WESTERN RIDGE THEN REFORMS AND BUILDS AGAIN ON
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS FOR THE FORECAST AREA
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 526 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15







000
FXUS63 KUNR 161126
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
526 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE UPPER
RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOWNSTREAM OF THE
RIDGE WILL BRING ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM
TIME TO TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE
WARMER THAN AVERAGE...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS OVER NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS
TOWARD CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON THURSDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN LATE ON
THURSDAY....AS A WEAK UPPER TROF AND COOL FRONT SLIDE THROUGH THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THE WESTERN RIDGE THEN REFORMS AND BUILDS AGAIN ON
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS FOR THE FORECAST AREA
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 526 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15







000
FXUS63 KUNR 161126
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
526 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE UPPER
RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOWNSTREAM OF THE
RIDGE WILL BRING ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM
TIME TO TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE
WARMER THAN AVERAGE...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS OVER NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS
TOWARD CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON THURSDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN LATE ON
THURSDAY....AS A WEAK UPPER TROF AND COOL FRONT SLIDE THROUGH THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THE WESTERN RIDGE THEN REFORMS AND BUILDS AGAIN ON
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS FOR THE FORECAST AREA
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 526 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15







000
FXUS65 KRIW 160916
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
316 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
IF WEAK CONVECTION CAN FORM ON A DAY WITH WEATHER FEATURES AS
BENIGN LIKE MONDAY...GIVEN THE WEAK CONVECTION THAT FORMED OVER
EASTERN SWEETWATER AND SOUTHERN NATRONA COUNTIES...THAN SOME
CONVECTION SHOULD FORM ACROSS NW WY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIMITED
HIGH AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE RIDING UP AND OVER THE RIDGE OVER THE
FAR WESTERN UNITED STATES COMBINED WITH NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES
WILL RESULT IN ISOLD AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WITH WDLY SCATTERED
COVERAGE IN THE MTNS TODAY. ALSO...THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH OFF
THE PACIFIC COAST NOW OUT AT 140W HAS EJECTED A SHORTWAVE THAT
WILL DELIVER THIS MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MORE MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL
PACIFIC...NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES AND FAIRLY HIGH CAPES FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED LATE DAY
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY WESTERN WYOMING. THEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH NOW AT 140W WILL APPROACH THE ROCKIES THURSDAY AND WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCES OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
WEST WITH POPS BETWEEN 50 AND 60 IN THE WESTERN MTNS AND ISOLD
EAST. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WILL ORIGINATE FROM ODILE. THE RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND WEDNESDAY ALONG
WITH CONTINUED WARMING TEMPS. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
LOW 80S AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND 75 TO 80
WEST. BY WEDNESDAY...HIGHS IN THE MID 80S EAST AND AROUND 80 WEST.
THE MODELS WANT TO CONTINUE TO WARM US UP THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS
NEAR 90 IN THE BIG HORN BASIN BUT INCREASING CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
COUNTERACT ANY WARMING...ESPECIALLY WITH THE LOWERING SUN ANGLE OF
MID SEPTEMBER. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LAST WELL INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WEST WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SPLITTING TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. SOUTHERN PIECE
IMPACTS THE FAR SOUTH WITH SOME INCREASED MOISTURE AND SUPPORT AS
FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
OF .75 TO .90 ARE FORECAST BY THE GFS IN THE FAR NORTH AND EAST. THE
COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND BACKS UP NEAR THE DIVIDE
ON FRIDAY WITH SOME MODEST CAPES POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER PW AIR.
SEWD MOVING SHORTWAVE MAY ALSO AID IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT.
OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE A DRY MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WITH RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE WEST. WYOMING REMAINS IN A SOMEWHAT COOLER/MILD
AND DRY NW FLOW. LOOKS LIKE A SPECTACULAR START TO FALL EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD IN THE 70S
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATION WITH 50S AND 60S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.
ABOUT THE ONLY THING TO WATCH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE WHERE THE
SRN PIECE OF OUR REMNANT LOW WILL BE. THE ECMWF IS MUCH FURTHER
SOUTH TONIGHT WHILE THE GFS IS ACROSS SRN UT WITH MOISTURE PUSHING
NWD TO NEAR THE SRN WYO BORDER ON MONDAY. GOING DRY RIGHT NOW BUT
IT`S WORTH WATCHING TO SEE IF ANY MOISTURE CAN MAKE IT INTO AT
LEAST SWEETWATER COUNTY WITH TIME. OTHERWISE...DRY WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WINDS AND OVERALL PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ONCE WE GET BY
OUR FRIDAY SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL FORM OVER WESTERN WY AFTER 19Z AND CONTINUE UNTIL
ABOUT 04Z WED. GUSTY OUTFLOW WIND TO 35 KNOTS IS LIKELY NEAR STORMS.
THE TERMINAL SITES WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MAY BE IMPACTED BY
SHOWERS OR STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A BUILDING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. A BIT OF BREEZE MAY
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN WIND CORRIDOR BUT
SHOULD MAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS. THE CHANCES OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH
APPROACHES. WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY AS WELL.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON










000
FXUS65 KRIW 160916
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
316 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
IF WEAK CONVECTION CAN FORM ON A DAY WITH WEATHER FEATURES AS
BENIGN LIKE MONDAY...GIVEN THE WEAK CONVECTION THAT FORMED OVER
EASTERN SWEETWATER AND SOUTHERN NATRONA COUNTIES...THAN SOME
CONVECTION SHOULD FORM ACROSS NW WY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIMITED
HIGH AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE RIDING UP AND OVER THE RIDGE OVER THE
FAR WESTERN UNITED STATES COMBINED WITH NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES
WILL RESULT IN ISOLD AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WITH WDLY SCATTERED
COVERAGE IN THE MTNS TODAY. ALSO...THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH OFF
THE PACIFIC COAST NOW OUT AT 140W HAS EJECTED A SHORTWAVE THAT
WILL DELIVER THIS MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MORE MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL
PACIFIC...NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES AND FAIRLY HIGH CAPES FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED LATE DAY
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY WESTERN WYOMING. THEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH NOW AT 140W WILL APPROACH THE ROCKIES THURSDAY AND WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCES OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
WEST WITH POPS BETWEEN 50 AND 60 IN THE WESTERN MTNS AND ISOLD
EAST. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WILL ORIGINATE FROM ODILE. THE RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND WEDNESDAY ALONG
WITH CONTINUED WARMING TEMPS. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
LOW 80S AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND 75 TO 80
WEST. BY WEDNESDAY...HIGHS IN THE MID 80S EAST AND AROUND 80 WEST.
THE MODELS WANT TO CONTINUE TO WARM US UP THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS
NEAR 90 IN THE BIG HORN BASIN BUT INCREASING CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
COUNTERACT ANY WARMING...ESPECIALLY WITH THE LOWERING SUN ANGLE OF
MID SEPTEMBER. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LAST WELL INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WEST WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SPLITTING TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. SOUTHERN PIECE
IMPACTS THE FAR SOUTH WITH SOME INCREASED MOISTURE AND SUPPORT AS
FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
OF .75 TO .90 ARE FORECAST BY THE GFS IN THE FAR NORTH AND EAST. THE
COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND BACKS UP NEAR THE DIVIDE
ON FRIDAY WITH SOME MODEST CAPES POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER PW AIR.
SEWD MOVING SHORTWAVE MAY ALSO AID IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT.
OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE A DRY MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WITH RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE WEST. WYOMING REMAINS IN A SOMEWHAT COOLER/MILD
AND DRY NW FLOW. LOOKS LIKE A SPECTACULAR START TO FALL EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD IN THE 70S
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATION WITH 50S AND 60S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.
ABOUT THE ONLY THING TO WATCH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE WHERE THE
SRN PIECE OF OUR REMNANT LOW WILL BE. THE ECMWF IS MUCH FURTHER
SOUTH TONIGHT WHILE THE GFS IS ACROSS SRN UT WITH MOISTURE PUSHING
NWD TO NEAR THE SRN WYO BORDER ON MONDAY. GOING DRY RIGHT NOW BUT
IT`S WORTH WATCHING TO SEE IF ANY MOISTURE CAN MAKE IT INTO AT
LEAST SWEETWATER COUNTY WITH TIME. OTHERWISE...DRY WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WINDS AND OVERALL PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ONCE WE GET BY
OUR FRIDAY SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL FORM OVER WESTERN WY AFTER 19Z AND CONTINUE UNTIL
ABOUT 04Z WED. GUSTY OUTFLOW WIND TO 35 KNOTS IS LIKELY NEAR STORMS.
THE TERMINAL SITES WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MAY BE IMPACTED BY
SHOWERS OR STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A BUILDING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. A BIT OF BREEZE MAY
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN WIND CORRIDOR BUT
SHOULD MAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS. THE CHANCES OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH
APPROACHES. WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY AS WELL.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON









000
FXUS65 KCYS 160843
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
243 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

PRETTY BENIGN PATTERN THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE SHORT TERM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER WESTERN WYOMING
THIS MORNING...WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHEAST WINDS EAST. 11-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING THE LOW CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WELL SOUTH OF THE
CWFA OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THIS STRATUS
WILL MAKE ITS WAY UP INTO OUR AREA THIS MORNING. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
HURRICANE ODILE MOVING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW
MEXICO. NOTHING REAL CLOSE TO WYOMING FOR US TO WORRY ABOUT THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

LOOKS MAINLY CLEAR AND DRY AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MOVES EAST TOWARDS WYOMING. SOME PERIODS
OF GUSTY WINDS AS GFS 700MB WINDS INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BUT THEN EASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SO WE SHOULD BE
OK FOR FIRE WEATHER ISSUES EACH DAY. WINDIEST DAY MAY BE THURSDAY
WHERE WE COULD MIX DOWN 25KT WINDS FROM ROUGHLY 550MBS.

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...700MB TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO +14C OVER
CARBON COUNTY AND +12C OVER THE PANHANDLE. WARM DAYTIME HIGHS EACH
DAY...WITH WARMEST DAY THURSDAY. LOOKING AT LOW TO MID 90S IN THE
PANHANDLE WITH LOW 80S WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

UPPER SHORTWAVE STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO WESTERN WYOMING
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON
MOVEMENT AND TIMING. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT MOVING INTO CARBON
COUNTY...EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA LATER
FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
TIME FRAME WILL FEATURE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MIDLVL HIGH THAT IS CENTERED OVER COLORADO ON THURS
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRI IN RESPONSE TO A
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. 700-500MB MOISTURE
INCREASES ON FRI AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.
DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL NOT
IMPACT THE REGION (IT MOVES OVER NEW MEXICO). THE COMBINATION OF
WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS AND SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE CWA THROUGH FRI
EVENING. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ENSUES BY LATE FRI NIGHT WITH THE
FRONT SURGING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. TEMPS ON FRI WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS AND THEN WILL COOL 10-15 DEGREES FOR
SAT. THE WEEKEND LOOKS VERY NICE WITH WEAK WINDS AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. THE ECMWF IS STILL FASTER AT
INCREASING HEIGHTS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY SUN INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. STILL NO GOOD CHANCES OF PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED OTHER
THAN ON FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

A FAIRLY BENIGN PERIOD UPCOMING...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. THE ONE QUESTION MARK WILL BE AT KAIA...WHERE THERE IS
SOME INDICATION OF A LOWER CLOUD DECK PUSHING IN BETWEEN 11-13Z.
AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH OF THIS OCCURRING...SO HAVE JUST HINTED
WITH A SCT025 CLOUD DECK. THIS MAY BACK NORTHWEST ALONG THE NORTH
PLATTE RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS WELL...BUT DONT EXPECT IT
TO MAKE IT TO KBFF...BUT IT MAY BE CLOSE. OTHER THAN THAT SHOULD
BE A MOSTLY SKC DAY ON TUESDAY...WITH A CHUNK OF MID-LEVEL
SCT200-250 MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE AREA AFTER 23Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN WYOMING WILL CREATE WARM TEMPERATURES
AND AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO CREATE ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY. FORTUNATELY...FUELS IN MOST FIRE WEATHER ZONES
ARE REPORTED NON-CRITICAL...SO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD BE
MINIMIZED. NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE
FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST WYOMING FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH WINDS SWITCHING NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB




000
FXUS65 KCYS 160843
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
243 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

PRETTY BENIGN PATTERN THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE SHORT TERM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER WESTERN WYOMING
THIS MORNING...WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHEAST WINDS EAST. 11-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING THE LOW CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WELL SOUTH OF THE
CWFA OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THIS STRATUS
WILL MAKE ITS WAY UP INTO OUR AREA THIS MORNING. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
HURRICANE ODILE MOVING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW
MEXICO. NOTHING REAL CLOSE TO WYOMING FOR US TO WORRY ABOUT THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

LOOKS MAINLY CLEAR AND DRY AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MOVES EAST TOWARDS WYOMING. SOME PERIODS
OF GUSTY WINDS AS GFS 700MB WINDS INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BUT THEN EASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SO WE SHOULD BE
OK FOR FIRE WEATHER ISSUES EACH DAY. WINDIEST DAY MAY BE THURSDAY
WHERE WE COULD MIX DOWN 25KT WINDS FROM ROUGHLY 550MBS.

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...700MB TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO +14C OVER
CARBON COUNTY AND +12C OVER THE PANHANDLE. WARM DAYTIME HIGHS EACH
DAY...WITH WARMEST DAY THURSDAY. LOOKING AT LOW TO MID 90S IN THE
PANHANDLE WITH LOW 80S WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

UPPER SHORTWAVE STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO WESTERN WYOMING
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON
MOVEMENT AND TIMING. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT MOVING INTO CARBON
COUNTY...EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA LATER
FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
TIME FRAME WILL FEATURE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MIDLVL HIGH THAT IS CENTERED OVER COLORADO ON THURS
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRI IN RESPONSE TO A
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. 700-500MB MOISTURE
INCREASES ON FRI AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.
DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL NOT
IMPACT THE REGION (IT MOVES OVER NEW MEXICO). THE COMBINATION OF
WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS AND SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE CWA THROUGH FRI
EVENING. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ENSUES BY LATE FRI NIGHT WITH THE
FRONT SURGING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. TEMPS ON FRI WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS AND THEN WILL COOL 10-15 DEGREES FOR
SAT. THE WEEKEND LOOKS VERY NICE WITH WEAK WINDS AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. THE ECMWF IS STILL FASTER AT
INCREASING HEIGHTS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY SUN INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. STILL NO GOOD CHANCES OF PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED OTHER
THAN ON FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

A FAIRLY BENIGN PERIOD UPCOMING...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. THE ONE QUESTION MARK WILL BE AT KAIA...WHERE THERE IS
SOME INDICATION OF A LOWER CLOUD DECK PUSHING IN BETWEEN 11-13Z.
AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH OF THIS OCCURRING...SO HAVE JUST HINTED
WITH A SCT025 CLOUD DECK. THIS MAY BACK NORTHWEST ALONG THE NORTH
PLATTE RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS WELL...BUT DONT EXPECT IT
TO MAKE IT TO KBFF...BUT IT MAY BE CLOSE. OTHER THAN THAT SHOULD
BE A MOSTLY SKC DAY ON TUESDAY...WITH A CHUNK OF MID-LEVEL
SCT200-250 MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE AREA AFTER 23Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN WYOMING WILL CREATE WARM TEMPERATURES
AND AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO CREATE ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY. FORTUNATELY...FUELS IN MOST FIRE WEATHER ZONES
ARE REPORTED NON-CRITICAL...SO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD BE
MINIMIZED. NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE
FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST WYOMING FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH WINDS SWITCHING NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB





000
FXUS63 KUNR 160818
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
218 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE UPPER
RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOWNSTREAM OF THE
RIDGE WILL BRING ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM
TIME TO TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE
WARMER THAN AVERAGE...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS OVER NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS
TOWARD CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON THURSDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN LATE ON
THURSDAY....AS A WEAK UPPER TROF AND COOL FRONT SLIDE THROUGH THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THE WESTERN RIDGE THEN REFORMS AND BUILDS AGAIN ON
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS FOR THE FORECAST AREA
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15






000
FXUS63 KUNR 160818
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
218 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE UPPER
RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOWNSTREAM OF THE
RIDGE WILL BRING ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM
TIME TO TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE
WARMER THAN AVERAGE...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS OVER NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS
TOWARD CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON THURSDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN LATE ON
THURSDAY....AS A WEAK UPPER TROF AND COOL FRONT SLIDE THROUGH THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THE WESTERN RIDGE THEN REFORMS AND BUILDS AGAIN ON
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS FOR THE FORECAST AREA
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15







000
FXUS65 KRIW 160515
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1115 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY (ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT)

MOST OF THE STATE IS EXPERIENCING A NICE SEPTEMBER DAY WITH PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS. THERE IS A BIT OF HAZE
AROUND IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME SMOKE MOVING IN FROM THE FIRES IN
CALIFORNIA. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A BIT OF CONVECTION NOTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF UTAH AND COLORADO WHERE SOME DEEPER MOISTURE IS FOUND.
AT THIS POINT...WE HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WE MAY HAVE TO ADD SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN SWEETWATER COUNTY IF ANYTHING SNEAKS
NORTHWARD. THIS WILL BE A GAMETIME DECISION THOUGH. ANY CONVECTION
SHOULD END THIS EVENING WITH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING LOOKING DRY
WITH MAINLY LIGHT WINDS.

WE DID MAKE A BIT OF CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THOUGH. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. A
COUPLE OF MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM BUT ALSO THE EUROPEAN TRY TO
FIRE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA. MEANWHILE...THE GFS LOOKS DRY. FOR NOW...WE
COMPROMISED FOR HAVING ISOLATED CONVECTION AND HAVING IT REMAIN
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE DIVIDE. AS FOR EAST OF
THE DIVIDE...EXPECT ANOTHER MAINLY DRY AND WARM DAY WITH A BIT MORE
OF A BREEZE IN THE FAVORED AREAS BUT NOTHING UNUSUAL FOR WYOMING.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

CURRENT AMPLIFIED/DIRTYING RIDGE WRN CONUS WITH DECENT TROF WEST OF
THE RIDGE OVR EPAC AND WITH SEVERAL RATHER WEAK SW IMPULSES DUE TO
MOVE THRU THE RIDGE OVR TIME. BROAD TROF ACROSS ERN CONUS.

BEGINNING OF THE FCST PERIOD...CURRENT WEAK SW MOVING UP RIDGE AND
JUST NOW CUTTING INTO NRN CALIFORNIA WILL AFFECT OUR WRN FA TO A
MINOR EXTENT...WITH INCREASED MID/UPR MOISTURE BUT ONLY WEAK
DYNAMICAL FORCING. WILL NEED TO ALSO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE MOUNTAIN
TERRAIN IN ORDER TO SQUEEZE OUT MORE THAN SPRINKLES AND ACTUALLY
MEASURE...BUT IT`S POSSIBLE. WED...THE NEXT WEAK RIDGE
RIDING/TOPPING SW MOVES ACROSS THE PEAK OF THE RIDGE. GOOD STRONG
LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM ON A RELATIVELY WARM DAY...BUT
AGAIN LITTLE MOISTURE WILL NOT MUCH MORE THAN A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT
SHOWERS WITH LOW QPF THRU THE EVENING PERIOD OVR THE WRN MOUNTAINS.
THEN BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH APPROACH OF WRN TROF HELPING TO PUSH
RIDGE ACROSS THE FA...THE WRN CWA WILL OPEN UP TO SW FLOW AND
LEADING LIFT AND UPR DIFLUENCE...ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER/DEEPER
MOISTURE...ALBEIT MOSTLY MID/UPR LVL AT FIRST. MOISTURE FEED FROM
SWRN CONUS AND THEN EX-HURRICANE ODILE WILL HELP EVER SO SLIGHTLY IN
INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SWRN/SRN
ZONES...AS ZONES ACROSS THE CNTRL...ERN AND NRN ZONES WILL HAVE TO
DO SOME WORK AT MOISTENING UP TO OVERCOME THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS
WORTH OF DRY AIR. OTHERWISE...SPLITTING TROF...W SRN PORTION LOSING
WRN UPR LVL ATTACHMENT AND BECOMING CUT OFF...WILL MOSTLY CLEAR THE
REGION OVERNIGHT FRIDAY...WITH DRYING ENSUING SAT.

BEYOND SAT...MOSTLY DRY/DRYING WEEKEND IN STORE ACROSS THE REGION W/
ONLY THE SLIGHTEST OF PRECIP POSSIBILITIES SHOWING UP ACROSS THE
EXTREME SRN FA UNDER THE STEERING GUIDANCE OF BUILDING UPR LVL SRN
CONUS/MEX HIGH. LR MDLS DIVERGE ON HOW TO HANDLE THE COL WITH THE
GFS KICKING IT OUT UNDER THE INFLUENCE A THE FIRST UPSTREAM SW TROF
APPROACHING THE PAC NW SUNDAY...MODELED WELL SPATIALLY AND
TEMPORALLY BY BOTH THE GFS AND EURO BY THE WAY...WHILE THE EURO IS NOT
AFFECTED BY THIS FIRST WAVE IN THE SAME WAY AND WAITS FOR THE SECOND
WAVE TO KICK IT OUT BY TUE MORNING. HOWEVER...BOTH RESULT IN SIMILAR
SOLUTIONS THRU THIS FCST PERIOD REGARDLESS...REALLY ONLY AFFECTING
EXTENDED WX POSSIBILITIES BEYOND THIS EXTEND FCST.
&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL FORM OVER WESTERN WY AFTER 19Z AND CONTINUE UNTIL
ABOUT 04Z WED. GUSTY OUTFLOW WIND TO 35 KNOTS IS LIKELY NEAR STORMS.
THE TERMINAL SITES WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MAY BE IMPACTED BY
SHOWERS OR STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A BUILDING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS PRESENT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A BIT
OF BREEZE MAY DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
WIND CORRIDOR BUT SHOULD MAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS.  THE CHANCES OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM
TROUGH APPROACHES. WINDS WILL INCREASE BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY
AS WELL.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...BRAUN
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS









000
FXUS65 KRIW 160515
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1115 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY (ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT)

MOST OF THE STATE IS EXPERIENCING A NICE SEPTEMBER DAY WITH PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS. THERE IS A BIT OF HAZE
AROUND IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME SMOKE MOVING IN FROM THE FIRES IN
CALIFORNIA. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A BIT OF CONVECTION NOTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF UTAH AND COLORADO WHERE SOME DEEPER MOISTURE IS FOUND.
AT THIS POINT...WE HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WE MAY HAVE TO ADD SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN SWEETWATER COUNTY IF ANYTHING SNEAKS
NORTHWARD. THIS WILL BE A GAMETIME DECISION THOUGH. ANY CONVECTION
SHOULD END THIS EVENING WITH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING LOOKING DRY
WITH MAINLY LIGHT WINDS.

WE DID MAKE A BIT OF CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THOUGH. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. A
COUPLE OF MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM BUT ALSO THE EUROPEAN TRY TO
FIRE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA. MEANWHILE...THE GFS LOOKS DRY. FOR NOW...WE
COMPROMISED FOR HAVING ISOLATED CONVECTION AND HAVING IT REMAIN
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE DIVIDE. AS FOR EAST OF
THE DIVIDE...EXPECT ANOTHER MAINLY DRY AND WARM DAY WITH A BIT MORE
OF A BREEZE IN THE FAVORED AREAS BUT NOTHING UNUSUAL FOR WYOMING.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

CURRENT AMPLIFIED/DIRTYING RIDGE WRN CONUS WITH DECENT TROF WEST OF
THE RIDGE OVR EPAC AND WITH SEVERAL RATHER WEAK SW IMPULSES DUE TO
MOVE THRU THE RIDGE OVR TIME. BROAD TROF ACROSS ERN CONUS.

BEGINNING OF THE FCST PERIOD...CURRENT WEAK SW MOVING UP RIDGE AND
JUST NOW CUTTING INTO NRN CALIFORNIA WILL AFFECT OUR WRN FA TO A
MINOR EXTENT...WITH INCREASED MID/UPR MOISTURE BUT ONLY WEAK
DYNAMICAL FORCING. WILL NEED TO ALSO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE MOUNTAIN
TERRAIN IN ORDER TO SQUEEZE OUT MORE THAN SPRINKLES AND ACTUALLY
MEASURE...BUT IT`S POSSIBLE. WED...THE NEXT WEAK RIDGE
RIDING/TOPPING SW MOVES ACROSS THE PEAK OF THE RIDGE. GOOD STRONG
LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM ON A RELATIVELY WARM DAY...BUT
AGAIN LITTLE MOISTURE WILL NOT MUCH MORE THAN A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT
SHOWERS WITH LOW QPF THRU THE EVENING PERIOD OVR THE WRN MOUNTAINS.
THEN BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH APPROACH OF WRN TROF HELPING TO PUSH
RIDGE ACROSS THE FA...THE WRN CWA WILL OPEN UP TO SW FLOW AND
LEADING LIFT AND UPR DIFLUENCE...ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER/DEEPER
MOISTURE...ALBEIT MOSTLY MID/UPR LVL AT FIRST. MOISTURE FEED FROM
SWRN CONUS AND THEN EX-HURRICANE ODILE WILL HELP EVER SO SLIGHTLY IN
INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SWRN/SRN
ZONES...AS ZONES ACROSS THE CNTRL...ERN AND NRN ZONES WILL HAVE TO
DO SOME WORK AT MOISTENING UP TO OVERCOME THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS
WORTH OF DRY AIR. OTHERWISE...SPLITTING TROF...W SRN PORTION LOSING
WRN UPR LVL ATTACHMENT AND BECOMING CUT OFF...WILL MOSTLY CLEAR THE
REGION OVERNIGHT FRIDAY...WITH DRYING ENSUING SAT.

BEYOND SAT...MOSTLY DRY/DRYING WEEKEND IN STORE ACROSS THE REGION W/
ONLY THE SLIGHTEST OF PRECIP POSSIBILITIES SHOWING UP ACROSS THE
EXTREME SRN FA UNDER THE STEERING GUIDANCE OF BUILDING UPR LVL SRN
CONUS/MEX HIGH. LR MDLS DIVERGE ON HOW TO HANDLE THE COL WITH THE
GFS KICKING IT OUT UNDER THE INFLUENCE A THE FIRST UPSTREAM SW TROF
APPROACHING THE PAC NW SUNDAY...MODELED WELL SPATIALLY AND
TEMPORALLY BY BOTH THE GFS AND EURO BY THE WAY...WHILE THE EURO IS NOT
AFFECTED BY THIS FIRST WAVE IN THE SAME WAY AND WAITS FOR THE SECOND
WAVE TO KICK IT OUT BY TUE MORNING. HOWEVER...BOTH RESULT IN SIMILAR
SOLUTIONS THRU THIS FCST PERIOD REGARDLESS...REALLY ONLY AFFECTING
EXTENDED WX POSSIBILITIES BEYOND THIS EXTEND FCST.
&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL FORM OVER WESTERN WY AFTER 19Z AND CONTINUE UNTIL
ABOUT 04Z WED. GUSTY OUTFLOW WIND TO 35 KNOTS IS LIKELY NEAR STORMS.
THE TERMINAL SITES WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MAY BE IMPACTED BY
SHOWERS OR STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A BUILDING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS PRESENT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A BIT
OF BREEZE MAY DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
WIND CORRIDOR BUT SHOULD MAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS.  THE CHANCES OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM
TROUGH APPROACHES. WINDS WILL INCREASE BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY
AS WELL.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...BRAUN
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS








000
FXUS65 KCYS 160508
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1108 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

COULD STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS POP OVER THE SOUTHERN MTNS NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON BUT BY FAR MOST SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE TO
THE WEST OF THE CWA EDGES SLOWLY EASTWARD. WARM TEMPERATURES BOTH
AFTERNOONS WITH MAXS WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...EVEN
AROUND 90 OVER PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE WEDS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
MAINLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR WEAK STORMS
POP OVER THE MTNS LATE WEDS AS SOME INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
SEEPS OVER THE AREA BUT WARMING MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL HINDER IT
SOME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
WILL BE RUNNING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS
AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY LOW UNDER SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT AND DRY MIDLEVELS.

AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE IS SCHEDULED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS
WAVE WILL BRING COOLER AIR TO THE REGION ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON
THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY BUT THE TREND HAS BEEN
SLIGHTLY SLOWER. ALSO THERE IS A HURRICANE OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA
WHICH WILL BE IN THE PICTURE FRIDAY. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW BIG
DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE. ECMWF
PUSHES THE REMNANTS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WHILE THE 12Z GFS
KEEPS THE SYSTEM WELL SOUTH. NOT CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SOLUTION
AT THIS TIME.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER FOR MOVE OF THE AREA AS COOL
AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE
PLAINS. EVEN WITH A COOL DOWN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE
NORM FOR THE LATER HALF OF SEPTEMBER. GOING OUT FURTHER INTO THE
EXTENDED IT APPEARS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

A FAIRLY BENIGN PERIOD UPCOMING...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. THE ONE QUESTION MARK WILL BE AT KAIA...WHERE THERE IS
SOME INDICATION OF A LOWER CLOUD DECK PUSHING IN BETWEEN 11-13Z.
AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH OF THIS OCCURRING...SO HAVE JUST HINTED
WITH A SCT025 CLOUD DECK. THIS MAY BACK NORTHWEST ALONG THE NORTH
PLATTE RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS WELL...BUT DONT EXPECT IT
TO MAKE IT TO KBFF...BUT IT MAY BE CLOSE. OTHER THAN THAT SHOULD
BE A MOSTLY SKC DAY ON TUESDAY...WITH A CHUNK OF MID-LEVEL
SCT200-250 MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE AREA AFTER 23Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE NON-CRITICAL OVERALL. MIN
AFTERNOON RHS WILL GET RATHER LOW IN THE AFTERNOONS OVER WESTERN
AREAS BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MODEST.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...HAHN
FIRE WEATHER...RE






000
FXUS65 KCYS 160508
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1108 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

COULD STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS POP OVER THE SOUTHERN MTNS NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON BUT BY FAR MOST SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE TO
THE WEST OF THE CWA EDGES SLOWLY EASTWARD. WARM TEMPERATURES BOTH
AFTERNOONS WITH MAXS WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...EVEN
AROUND 90 OVER PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE WEDS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
MAINLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR WEAK STORMS
POP OVER THE MTNS LATE WEDS AS SOME INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
SEEPS OVER THE AREA BUT WARMING MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL HINDER IT
SOME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
WILL BE RUNNING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS
AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY LOW UNDER SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT AND DRY MIDLEVELS.

AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE IS SCHEDULED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS
WAVE WILL BRING COOLER AIR TO THE REGION ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON
THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY BUT THE TREND HAS BEEN
SLIGHTLY SLOWER. ALSO THERE IS A HURRICANE OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA
WHICH WILL BE IN THE PICTURE FRIDAY. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW BIG
DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE. ECMWF
PUSHES THE REMNANTS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WHILE THE 12Z GFS
KEEPS THE SYSTEM WELL SOUTH. NOT CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SOLUTION
AT THIS TIME.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER FOR MOVE OF THE AREA AS COOL
AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE
PLAINS. EVEN WITH A COOL DOWN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE
NORM FOR THE LATER HALF OF SEPTEMBER. GOING OUT FURTHER INTO THE
EXTENDED IT APPEARS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

A FAIRLY BENIGN PERIOD UPCOMING...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. THE ONE QUESTION MARK WILL BE AT KAIA...WHERE THERE IS
SOME INDICATION OF A LOWER CLOUD DECK PUSHING IN BETWEEN 11-13Z.
AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH OF THIS OCCURRING...SO HAVE JUST HINTED
WITH A SCT025 CLOUD DECK. THIS MAY BACK NORTHWEST ALONG THE NORTH
PLATTE RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS WELL...BUT DONT EXPECT IT
TO MAKE IT TO KBFF...BUT IT MAY BE CLOSE. OTHER THAN THAT SHOULD
BE A MOSTLY SKC DAY ON TUESDAY...WITH A CHUNK OF MID-LEVEL
SCT200-250 MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE AREA AFTER 23Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE NON-CRITICAL OVERALL. MIN
AFTERNOON RHS WILL GET RATHER LOW IN THE AFTERNOONS OVER WESTERN
AREAS BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MODEST.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...HAHN
FIRE WEATHER...RE







000
FXUS63 KUNR 160448
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1048 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 138 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE
LATEST WATER VAPOR AND 500-MB HEIGHTS SHOW A RATHER SHARP RIDGE
OVER THE WRN CONUS...WITH A BROAD/LARGE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS.
THIS PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE RIDGE
TRANSLATES VERY SLOWLY EWD. NORTHWEST FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE
WILL BRING ONLY SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE
EXCEPTION COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG OVER FAR SRN AREAS OF THE CWA
LATE TNGT/ERLY TUE MRNG WHERE FOG WAS PRESENT THIS MRNG.
HOWEVER...EXPECT THE WINDS TO BE BIT STRONGER TNGT WITH MORE BLYR
MIXING AS THE SFC HIGH PRES MOVES SOUTHEAST. WARM ADVECTION ALSO
WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND TUE...WITH TEMPS ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
HIGHER THAN TODAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z
WED.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 138 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR
TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS THE
CWA AND BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY. WITH THERMAL RIDGE OVER
THE AREA...WILL SEE THE WARMEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK. A WEAK UPPER
TROF AND COOL FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THE WESTERN RIDGE THEN REFORMS AND BUILDS AGAIN ON
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE FORECAST AREA INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...JOHNSON






000
FXUS63 KUNR 160448
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1048 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 138 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE
LATEST WATER VAPOR AND 500-MB HEIGHTS SHOW A RATHER SHARP RIDGE
OVER THE WRN CONUS...WITH A BROAD/LARGE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS.
THIS PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE RIDGE
TRANSLATES VERY SLOWLY EWD. NORTHWEST FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE
WILL BRING ONLY SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE
EXCEPTION COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG OVER FAR SRN AREAS OF THE CWA
LATE TNGT/ERLY TUE MRNG WHERE FOG WAS PRESENT THIS MRNG.
HOWEVER...EXPECT THE WINDS TO BE BIT STRONGER TNGT WITH MORE BLYR
MIXING AS THE SFC HIGH PRES MOVES SOUTHEAST. WARM ADVECTION ALSO
WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND TUE...WITH TEMPS ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
HIGHER THAN TODAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z
WED.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 138 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR
TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS THE
CWA AND BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY. WITH THERMAL RIDGE OVER
THE AREA...WILL SEE THE WARMEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK. A WEAK UPPER
TROF AND COOL FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THE WESTERN RIDGE THEN REFORMS AND BUILDS AGAIN ON
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE FORECAST AREA INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...JOHNSON







000
FXUS65 KCYS 152339
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
539 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

COULD STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS POP OVER THE SOUTHERN MTNS NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON BUT BY FAR MOST SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE TO
THE WEST OF THE CWA EDGES SLOWLY EASTWARD. WARM TEMPERATURES BOTH
AFTERNOONS WITH MAXS WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...EVEN
AROUND 90 OVER PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE WEDS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
MAINLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR WEAK STORMS
POP OVER THE MTNS LATE WEDS AS SOME INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
SEEPS OVER THE AREA BUT WARMING MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL HINDER IT
SOME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
WILL BE RUNNING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS
AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY LOW UNDER SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT AND DRY MIDLEVELS.

AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE IS SCHEDULED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS
WAVE WILL BRING COOLER AIR TO THE REGION ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON
THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY BUT THE TREND HAS BEEN
SLIGHTLY SLOWER. ALSO THERE IS A HURRICANE OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA
WHICH WILL BE IN THE PICTURE FRIDAY. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW BIG
DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE. ECMWF
PUSHES THE REMNANTS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WHILE THE 12Z GFS
KEEPS THE SYSTEM WELL SOUTH. NOT CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SOLUTION
AT THIS TIME.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER FOR MOVE OF THE AREA AS COOL
AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE
PLAINS. EVEN WITH A COOL DOWN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE
NORM FOR THE LATER HALF OF SEPTEMBER. GOING OUT FURTHER INTO THE
EXTENDED IT APPEARS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 532 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS OR WEAK TSTMS ARE EXPECTED WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE THROUGH 03Z TUE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC SURFACE WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN HAZARD FROM THIS ACTIVITY. CLEARING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
WITH NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
POSSIBLE THIN CIRRUS DEVELOPING LATE. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY
AGAIN BY TUE AFTN OVER THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING TERMINALS. NO SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ATTM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE NON-CRITICAL OVERALL. MIN
AFTERNOON RHS WILL GET RATHER LOW IN THE AFTERNOONS OVER WESTERN
AREAS BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MODEST.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...HAMMER
FIRE WEATHER...RE






000
FXUS65 KCYS 152339
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
539 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

COULD STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS POP OVER THE SOUTHERN MTNS NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON BUT BY FAR MOST SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE TO
THE WEST OF THE CWA EDGES SLOWLY EASTWARD. WARM TEMPERATURES BOTH
AFTERNOONS WITH MAXS WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...EVEN
AROUND 90 OVER PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE WEDS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
MAINLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR WEAK STORMS
POP OVER THE MTNS LATE WEDS AS SOME INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
SEEPS OVER THE AREA BUT WARMING MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL HINDER IT
SOME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
WILL BE RUNNING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS
AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY LOW UNDER SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT AND DRY MIDLEVELS.

AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE IS SCHEDULED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS
WAVE WILL BRING COOLER AIR TO THE REGION ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON
THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY BUT THE TREND HAS BEEN
SLIGHTLY SLOWER. ALSO THERE IS A HURRICANE OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA
WHICH WILL BE IN THE PICTURE FRIDAY. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW BIG
DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE. ECMWF
PUSHES THE REMNANTS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WHILE THE 12Z GFS
KEEPS THE SYSTEM WELL SOUTH. NOT CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SOLUTION
AT THIS TIME.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER FOR MOVE OF THE AREA AS COOL
AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE
PLAINS. EVEN WITH A COOL DOWN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE
NORM FOR THE LATER HALF OF SEPTEMBER. GOING OUT FURTHER INTO THE
EXTENDED IT APPEARS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 532 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS OR WEAK TSTMS ARE EXPECTED WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE THROUGH 03Z TUE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC SURFACE WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN HAZARD FROM THIS ACTIVITY. CLEARING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
WITH NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
POSSIBLE THIN CIRRUS DEVELOPING LATE. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY
AGAIN BY TUE AFTN OVER THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING TERMINALS. NO SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ATTM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE NON-CRITICAL OVERALL. MIN
AFTERNOON RHS WILL GET RATHER LOW IN THE AFTERNOONS OVER WESTERN
AREAS BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MODEST.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...HAMMER
FIRE WEATHER...RE






000
FXUS65 KCYS 152339
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
539 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

COULD STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS POP OVER THE SOUTHERN MTNS NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON BUT BY FAR MOST SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE TO
THE WEST OF THE CWA EDGES SLOWLY EASTWARD. WARM TEMPERATURES BOTH
AFTERNOONS WITH MAXS WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...EVEN
AROUND 90 OVER PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE WEDS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
MAINLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR WEAK STORMS
POP OVER THE MTNS LATE WEDS AS SOME INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
SEEPS OVER THE AREA BUT WARMING MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL HINDER IT
SOME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
WILL BE RUNNING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS
AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY LOW UNDER SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT AND DRY MIDLEVELS.

AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE IS SCHEDULED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS
WAVE WILL BRING COOLER AIR TO THE REGION ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON
THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY BUT THE TREND HAS BEEN
SLIGHTLY SLOWER. ALSO THERE IS A HURRICANE OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA
WHICH WILL BE IN THE PICTURE FRIDAY. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW BIG
DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE. ECMWF
PUSHES THE REMNANTS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WHILE THE 12Z GFS
KEEPS THE SYSTEM WELL SOUTH. NOT CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SOLUTION
AT THIS TIME.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER FOR MOVE OF THE AREA AS COOL
AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE
PLAINS. EVEN WITH A COOL DOWN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE
NORM FOR THE LATER HALF OF SEPTEMBER. GOING OUT FURTHER INTO THE
EXTENDED IT APPEARS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 532 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS OR WEAK TSTMS ARE EXPECTED WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE THROUGH 03Z TUE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC SURFACE WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN HAZARD FROM THIS ACTIVITY. CLEARING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
WITH NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
POSSIBLE THIN CIRRUS DEVELOPING LATE. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY
AGAIN BY TUE AFTN OVER THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING TERMINALS. NO SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ATTM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE NON-CRITICAL OVERALL. MIN
AFTERNOON RHS WILL GET RATHER LOW IN THE AFTERNOONS OVER WESTERN
AREAS BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MODEST.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...HAMMER
FIRE WEATHER...RE






000
FXUS65 KCYS 152339
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
539 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

COULD STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS POP OVER THE SOUTHERN MTNS NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON BUT BY FAR MOST SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE TO
THE WEST OF THE CWA EDGES SLOWLY EASTWARD. WARM TEMPERATURES BOTH
AFTERNOONS WITH MAXS WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...EVEN
AROUND 90 OVER PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE WEDS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
MAINLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR WEAK STORMS
POP OVER THE MTNS LATE WEDS AS SOME INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
SEEPS OVER THE AREA BUT WARMING MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL HINDER IT
SOME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
WILL BE RUNNING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS
AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY LOW UNDER SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT AND DRY MIDLEVELS.

AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE IS SCHEDULED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS
WAVE WILL BRING COOLER AIR TO THE REGION ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON
THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY BUT THE TREND HAS BEEN
SLIGHTLY SLOWER. ALSO THERE IS A HURRICANE OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA
WHICH WILL BE IN THE PICTURE FRIDAY. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW BIG
DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE. ECMWF
PUSHES THE REMNANTS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WHILE THE 12Z GFS
KEEPS THE SYSTEM WELL SOUTH. NOT CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SOLUTION
AT THIS TIME.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER FOR MOVE OF THE AREA AS COOL
AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE
PLAINS. EVEN WITH A COOL DOWN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE
NORM FOR THE LATER HALF OF SEPTEMBER. GOING OUT FURTHER INTO THE
EXTENDED IT APPEARS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 532 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS OR WEAK TSTMS ARE EXPECTED WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE THROUGH 03Z TUE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC SURFACE WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN HAZARD FROM THIS ACTIVITY. CLEARING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
WITH NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
POSSIBLE THIN CIRRUS DEVELOPING LATE. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY
AGAIN BY TUE AFTN OVER THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING TERMINALS. NO SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ATTM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE NON-CRITICAL OVERALL. MIN
AFTERNOON RHS WILL GET RATHER LOW IN THE AFTERNOONS OVER WESTERN
AREAS BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MODEST.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...HAMMER
FIRE WEATHER...RE






000
FXUS63 KUNR 152300
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
500 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 138 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE
LATEST WATER VAPOR AND 500-MB HEIGHTS SHOW A RATHER SHARP RIDGE
OVER THE WRN CONUS...WITH A BROAD/LARGE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS.
THIS PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE RIDGE
TRANSLATES VERY SLOWLY EWD. NORTHWEST FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE
WILL BRING ONLY SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE
EXCEPTION COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG OVER FAR SRN AREAS OF THE CWA
LATE TNGT/ERLY TUE MRNG WHERE FOG WAS PRESENT THIS MRNG.
HOWEVER...EXPECT THE WINDS TO BE BIT STRONGER TNGT WITH MORE BLYR
MIXING AS THE SFC HIGH PRES MOVES SOUTHEAST. WARM ADVECTION ALSO
WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND TUE...WITH TEMPS ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
HIGHER THAN TODAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z
WED.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 138 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR
TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS THE
CWA AND BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY. WITH THERMAL RIDGE OVER
THE AREA...WILL SEE THE WARMEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK. A WEAK UPPER
TROF AND COOL FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THE WESTERN RIDGE THEN REFORMS AND BUILDS AGAIN ON
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE FORECAST AREA INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 459 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...JOHNSON







000
FXUS63 KUNR 152300
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
500 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 138 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE
LATEST WATER VAPOR AND 500-MB HEIGHTS SHOW A RATHER SHARP RIDGE
OVER THE WRN CONUS...WITH A BROAD/LARGE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS.
THIS PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE RIDGE
TRANSLATES VERY SLOWLY EWD. NORTHWEST FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE
WILL BRING ONLY SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE
EXCEPTION COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG OVER FAR SRN AREAS OF THE CWA
LATE TNGT/ERLY TUE MRNG WHERE FOG WAS PRESENT THIS MRNG.
HOWEVER...EXPECT THE WINDS TO BE BIT STRONGER TNGT WITH MORE BLYR
MIXING AS THE SFC HIGH PRES MOVES SOUTHEAST. WARM ADVECTION ALSO
WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND TUE...WITH TEMPS ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
HIGHER THAN TODAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z
WED.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 138 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR
TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS THE
CWA AND BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY. WITH THERMAL RIDGE OVER
THE AREA...WILL SEE THE WARMEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK. A WEAK UPPER
TROF AND COOL FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THE WESTERN RIDGE THEN REFORMS AND BUILDS AGAIN ON
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE FORECAST AREA INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 459 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...JOHNSON








000
FXUS65 KCYS 152152
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
352 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

COULD STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS POP OVER THE SOUTHERN MTNS NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON BUT BY FAR MOST SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE TO
THE WEST OF THE CWA EDGES SLOWLY EASTWARD. WARM TEMPERATURES BOTH
AFTERNOONS WITH MAXS WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...EVEN
AROUND 90 OVER PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE WEDS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
MAINLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR WEAK STORMS
POP OVER THE MTNS LATE WEDS AS SOME INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
SEEPS OVER THE AREA BUT WARMING MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL HINDER IT
SOME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
WILL BE RUNNING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS
AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY LOW UNDER SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT AND DRY MIDLEVELS.

AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE IS SCHEDULED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS
WAVE WILL BRING COOLER AIR TO THE REGION ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON
THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY BUT THE TREND HAS BEEN
SLIGHTLY SLOWER. ALSO THERE IS A HURRICANE OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA
WHICH WILL BE IN THE PICTURE FRIDAY. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW BIG
DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE. ECMWF
PUSHES THE REMNANTS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WHILE THE 12Z GFS
KEEPS THE SYSTEM WELL SOUTH. NOT CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SOLUTION
AT THIS TIME.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER FOR MOVE OF THE AREA AS COOL
AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE
PLAINS. EVEN WITH A COOL DOWN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE
NORM FOR THE LATER HALF OF SEPTEMBER. GOING OUT FURTHER INTO THE
EXTENDED IT APPEARS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL MAKE FOR LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES ACROSS A MAJORITY OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TODAY. A FEW ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT MIGHT
DEVELOP BUT OVERALL AVIATION CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL AS THE COVERAGE
WILL BE VERY SPARSE. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
VFR IN PLACE. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT COULD ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY THIN
FOG INTO LOW LYING AREAS BUT ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY ERODE AFTER
SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE NON-CRITICAL OVERALL. MIN
AFTERNOON RHS WILL GET RATHER LOW IN THE AFTERNOONS OVER WESTERN
AREAS BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MODEST.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...RE







000
FXUS65 KCYS 152152
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
352 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

COULD STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS POP OVER THE SOUTHERN MTNS NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON BUT BY FAR MOST SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE TO
THE WEST OF THE CWA EDGES SLOWLY EASTWARD. WARM TEMPERATURES BOTH
AFTERNOONS WITH MAXS WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...EVEN
AROUND 90 OVER PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE WEDS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
MAINLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR WEAK STORMS
POP OVER THE MTNS LATE WEDS AS SOME INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
SEEPS OVER THE AREA BUT WARMING MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL HINDER IT
SOME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
WILL BE RUNNING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS
AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY LOW UNDER SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT AND DRY MIDLEVELS.

AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE IS SCHEDULED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS
WAVE WILL BRING COOLER AIR TO THE REGION ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON
THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY BUT THE TREND HAS BEEN
SLIGHTLY SLOWER. ALSO THERE IS A HURRICANE OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA
WHICH WILL BE IN THE PICTURE FRIDAY. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW BIG
DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE. ECMWF
PUSHES THE REMNANTS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WHILE THE 12Z GFS
KEEPS THE SYSTEM WELL SOUTH. NOT CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SOLUTION
AT THIS TIME.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER FOR MOVE OF THE AREA AS COOL
AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE
PLAINS. EVEN WITH A COOL DOWN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE
NORM FOR THE LATER HALF OF SEPTEMBER. GOING OUT FURTHER INTO THE
EXTENDED IT APPEARS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL MAKE FOR LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES ACROSS A MAJORITY OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TODAY. A FEW ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT MIGHT
DEVELOP BUT OVERALL AVIATION CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL AS THE COVERAGE
WILL BE VERY SPARSE. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
VFR IN PLACE. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT COULD ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY THIN
FOG INTO LOW LYING AREAS BUT ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY ERODE AFTER
SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE NON-CRITICAL OVERALL. MIN
AFTERNOON RHS WILL GET RATHER LOW IN THE AFTERNOONS OVER WESTERN
AREAS BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MODEST.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...RE







000
FXUS65 KCYS 152152
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
352 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

COULD STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS POP OVER THE SOUTHERN MTNS NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON BUT BY FAR MOST SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE TO
THE WEST OF THE CWA EDGES SLOWLY EASTWARD. WARM TEMPERATURES BOTH
AFTERNOONS WITH MAXS WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...EVEN
AROUND 90 OVER PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE WEDS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
MAINLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR WEAK STORMS
POP OVER THE MTNS LATE WEDS AS SOME INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
SEEPS OVER THE AREA BUT WARMING MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL HINDER IT
SOME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
WILL BE RUNNING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS
AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY LOW UNDER SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT AND DRY MIDLEVELS.

AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE IS SCHEDULED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS
WAVE WILL BRING COOLER AIR TO THE REGION ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON
THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY BUT THE TREND HAS BEEN
SLIGHTLY SLOWER. ALSO THERE IS A HURRICANE OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA
WHICH WILL BE IN THE PICTURE FRIDAY. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW BIG
DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE. ECMWF
PUSHES THE REMNANTS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WHILE THE 12Z GFS
KEEPS THE SYSTEM WELL SOUTH. NOT CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SOLUTION
AT THIS TIME.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER FOR MOVE OF THE AREA AS COOL
AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE
PLAINS. EVEN WITH A COOL DOWN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE
NORM FOR THE LATER HALF OF SEPTEMBER. GOING OUT FURTHER INTO THE
EXTENDED IT APPEARS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL MAKE FOR LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES ACROSS A MAJORITY OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TODAY. A FEW ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT MIGHT
DEVELOP BUT OVERALL AVIATION CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL AS THE COVERAGE
WILL BE VERY SPARSE. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
VFR IN PLACE. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT COULD ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY THIN
FOG INTO LOW LYING AREAS BUT ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY ERODE AFTER
SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE NON-CRITICAL OVERALL. MIN
AFTERNOON RHS WILL GET RATHER LOW IN THE AFTERNOONS OVER WESTERN
AREAS BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MODEST.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...RE







000
FXUS65 KCYS 152152
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
352 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

COULD STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS POP OVER THE SOUTHERN MTNS NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON BUT BY FAR MOST SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE TO
THE WEST OF THE CWA EDGES SLOWLY EASTWARD. WARM TEMPERATURES BOTH
AFTERNOONS WITH MAXS WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...EVEN
AROUND 90 OVER PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE WEDS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
MAINLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR WEAK STORMS
POP OVER THE MTNS LATE WEDS AS SOME INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
SEEPS OVER THE AREA BUT WARMING MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL HINDER IT
SOME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
WILL BE RUNNING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS
AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY LOW UNDER SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT AND DRY MIDLEVELS.

AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE IS SCHEDULED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS
WAVE WILL BRING COOLER AIR TO THE REGION ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON
THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY BUT THE TREND HAS BEEN
SLIGHTLY SLOWER. ALSO THERE IS A HURRICANE OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA
WHICH WILL BE IN THE PICTURE FRIDAY. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW BIG
DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE. ECMWF
PUSHES THE REMNANTS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WHILE THE 12Z GFS
KEEPS THE SYSTEM WELL SOUTH. NOT CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SOLUTION
AT THIS TIME.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER FOR MOVE OF THE AREA AS COOL
AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE
PLAINS. EVEN WITH A COOL DOWN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE
NORM FOR THE LATER HALF OF SEPTEMBER. GOING OUT FURTHER INTO THE
EXTENDED IT APPEARS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL MAKE FOR LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES ACROSS A MAJORITY OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TODAY. A FEW ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT MIGHT
DEVELOP BUT OVERALL AVIATION CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL AS THE COVERAGE
WILL BE VERY SPARSE. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
VFR IN PLACE. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT COULD ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY THIN
FOG INTO LOW LYING AREAS BUT ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY ERODE AFTER
SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE NON-CRITICAL OVERALL. MIN
AFTERNOON RHS WILL GET RATHER LOW IN THE AFTERNOONS OVER WESTERN
AREAS BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MODEST.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...RE







000
FXUS65 KRIW 152036
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
236 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

MOST OF THE STATE IS EXPERIENCING A NICE SEPTEMBER DAY WITH PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS. THERE IS A BIT OF HAZE
AROUND IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME SMOKE MOVING IN FROM THE FIRES IN
CALIFORNIA. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A BIT OF CONVECTION NOTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF UTAH AND COLORADO WHERE SOME DEEPER MOISTURE IS FOUND.
AT THIS POINT...WE HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WE MAY HAVE TO ADD SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN SWEETWATER COUNTY IF ANYTHING SNEAKS
NORTHWARD. THIS WILL BE A GAMETIME DECISION THOUGH. ANY CONVECTION
SHOULD END THIS EVENING WITH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING LOOKING DRY
WITH MAINLY LIGHT WINDS.

WE DID MAKE A BIT OF CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THOUGH. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. A
COUPLE OF MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM BUT ALSO THE EUROPEAN TRY TO
FIRE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA. MEANWHILE...THE GFS LOOKS DRY. FOR NOW...WE
COMPROMISED FOR HAVING ISOLATED CONVECTION AND HAVING IT REMAIN
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE DIVIDE. AS FOR EAST OF
THE DIVIDE...EXPECT ANOTHER MAINLY DRY AND WARM DAY WITH A BIT MORE
OF A BREEZE IN THE FAVORED AREAS BUT NOTHING UNUSUAL FOR WYOMING.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

CURRENT AMPLIFIED/DIRTYING RIDGE WRN CONUS WITH DECENT TROF WEST OF
THE RIDGE OVR EPAC AND WITH SEVERAL RATHER WEAK SW IMPULSES DUE TO
MOVE THRU THE RIDGE OVR TIME. BROAD TROF ACROSS ERN CONUS.

BEGINNING OF THE FCST PERIOD...CURRENT WEAK SW MOVING UP RIDGE AND
JUST NOW CUTTING INTO NRN CALIFORNIA WILL AFFECT OUR WRN FA TO A
MINOR EXTENT...WITH INCREASED MID/UPR MOISTURE BUT ONLY WEAK
DYNAMICAL FORCING. WILL NEED TO ALSO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE MOUNTAIN
TERRAIN IN ORDER TO SQUEEZE OUT MORE THAN SPRINKLES AND ACTUALLY
MEASURE...BUT IT`S POSSIBLE. WED...THE NEXT WEAK RIDGE
RIDING/TOPPING SW MOVES ACROSS THE PEAK OF THE RIDGE. GOOD STRONG
LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM ON A RELATIVELY WARM DAY...BUT
AGAIN LITTLE MOISTURE WILL NOT MUCH MORE THAN A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT
SHOWERS WITH LOW QPF THRU THE EVENING PERIOD OVR THE WRN MOUNTAINS.
THEN BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH APPROACH OF WRN TROF HELPING TO PUSH
RIDGE ACROSS THE FA...THE WRN CWA WILL OPEN UP TO SW FLOW AND
LEADING LIFT AND UPR DIFLUENCE...ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER/DEEPER
MOISTURE...ALBEIT MOSTLY MID/UPR LVL AT FIRST. MOISTURE FEED FROM
SWRN CONUS AND THEN EX-HURRICANE ODILE WILL HELP EVER SO SLIGHTLY IN
INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SWRN/SRN
ZONES...AS ZONES ACROSS THE CNTRL...ERN AND NRN ZONES WILL HAVE TO
DO SOME WORK AT MOISTENING UP TO OVERCOME THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS
WORTH OF DRY AIR. OTHERWISE...SPLITTING TROF...W SRN PORTION LOSING
WRN UPR LVL ATTACHMENT AND BECOMING CUT OFF...WILL MOSTLY CLEAR THE
REGION OVERNIGHT FRIDAY...WITH DRYING ENSUING SAT.

BEYOND SAT...MOSTLY DRY/DRYING WEEKEND IN STORE ACROSS THE REGION W/
ONLY THE SLIGHTEST OF PRECIP POSSIBILITIES SHOWING UP ACROSS THE
EXTREME SRN FA UNDER THE STEERING GUIDANCE OF BUILDING UPR LVL SRN
CONUS/MEX HIGH. LR MDLS DIVERGE ON HOW TO HANDLE THE COL WITH THE
GFS KICKING IT OUT UNDER THE INFLUENCE A THE FIRST UPSTREAM SW TROF
APPROACHING THE PAC NW SUNDAY...MODELED WELL SPATIALLY AND
TEMPORALLY BY BOTH THE GFS AND EURO BY THE WAY...WHILE THE EURO IS NOT
AFFECTED BY THIS FIRST WAVE IN THE SAME WAY AND WAITS FOR THE SECOND
WAVE TO KICK IT OUT BY TUE MORNING. HOWEVER...BOTH RESULT IN SIMILAR
SOLUTIONS THRU THIS FCST PERIOD REGARDLESS...REALLY ONLY AFFECTING
EXTENDED WX POSSIBILITIES BEYOND THIS EXTEND FCST.
&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
STORMS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE FAR SOUTHERN WYOMING BORDER UNTIL 02Z
TUE. THE ACTIVITY WILL SHOULD SOUTH OF THE KRKS AIRPORT. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEST OF THE DIVIDE AFTER 21Z TUESDAY BUT THESE MOST OF THESE SHOULD
REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A BUILDING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS PRESENT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A BIT
OF BREEZE MAY DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
WIND CORRIDOR BUT SHOULD MAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS.  THE CHANCES OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM
TROUGH APPROACHES. WINDS WILL INCREASE BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY
AS WELL.
&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...BRAUN
AVIATION...HATTINGS
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS





000
FXUS65 KRIW 152036
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
236 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

MOST OF THE STATE IS EXPERIENCING A NICE SEPTEMBER DAY WITH PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS. THERE IS A BIT OF HAZE
AROUND IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME SMOKE MOVING IN FROM THE FIRES IN
CALIFORNIA. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A BIT OF CONVECTION NOTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF UTAH AND COLORADO WHERE SOME DEEPER MOISTURE IS FOUND.
AT THIS POINT...WE HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WE MAY HAVE TO ADD SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN SWEETWATER COUNTY IF ANYTHING SNEAKS
NORTHWARD. THIS WILL BE A GAMETIME DECISION THOUGH. ANY CONVECTION
SHOULD END THIS EVENING WITH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING LOOKING DRY
WITH MAINLY LIGHT WINDS.

WE DID MAKE A BIT OF CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THOUGH. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. A
COUPLE OF MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM BUT ALSO THE EUROPEAN TRY TO
FIRE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA. MEANWHILE...THE GFS LOOKS DRY. FOR NOW...WE
COMPROMISED FOR HAVING ISOLATED CONVECTION AND HAVING IT REMAIN
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE DIVIDE. AS FOR EAST OF
THE DIVIDE...EXPECT ANOTHER MAINLY DRY AND WARM DAY WITH A BIT MORE
OF A BREEZE IN THE FAVORED AREAS BUT NOTHING UNUSUAL FOR WYOMING.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

CURRENT AMPLIFIED/DIRTYING RIDGE WRN CONUS WITH DECENT TROF WEST OF
THE RIDGE OVR EPAC AND WITH SEVERAL RATHER WEAK SW IMPULSES DUE TO
MOVE THRU THE RIDGE OVR TIME. BROAD TROF ACROSS ERN CONUS.

BEGINNING OF THE FCST PERIOD...CURRENT WEAK SW MOVING UP RIDGE AND
JUST NOW CUTTING INTO NRN CALIFORNIA WILL AFFECT OUR WRN FA TO A
MINOR EXTENT...WITH INCREASED MID/UPR MOISTURE BUT ONLY WEAK
DYNAMICAL FORCING. WILL NEED TO ALSO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE MOUNTAIN
TERRAIN IN ORDER TO SQUEEZE OUT MORE THAN SPRINKLES AND ACTUALLY
MEASURE...BUT IT`S POSSIBLE. WED...THE NEXT WEAK RIDGE
RIDING/TOPPING SW MOVES ACROSS THE PEAK OF THE RIDGE. GOOD STRONG
LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM ON A RELATIVELY WARM DAY...BUT
AGAIN LITTLE MOISTURE WILL NOT MUCH MORE THAN A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT
SHOWERS WITH LOW QPF THRU THE EVENING PERIOD OVR THE WRN MOUNTAINS.
THEN BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH APPROACH OF WRN TROF HELPING TO PUSH
RIDGE ACROSS THE FA...THE WRN CWA WILL OPEN UP TO SW FLOW AND
LEADING LIFT AND UPR DIFLUENCE...ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER/DEEPER
MOISTURE...ALBEIT MOSTLY MID/UPR LVL AT FIRST. MOISTURE FEED FROM
SWRN CONUS AND THEN EX-HURRICANE ODILE WILL HELP EVER SO SLIGHTLY IN
INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SWRN/SRN
ZONES...AS ZONES ACROSS THE CNTRL...ERN AND NRN ZONES WILL HAVE TO
DO SOME WORK AT MOISTENING UP TO OVERCOME THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS
WORTH OF DRY AIR. OTHERWISE...SPLITTING TROF...W SRN PORTION LOSING
WRN UPR LVL ATTACHMENT AND BECOMING CUT OFF...WILL MOSTLY CLEAR THE
REGION OVERNIGHT FRIDAY...WITH DRYING ENSUING SAT.

BEYOND SAT...MOSTLY DRY/DRYING WEEKEND IN STORE ACROSS THE REGION W/
ONLY THE SLIGHTEST OF PRECIP POSSIBILITIES SHOWING UP ACROSS THE
EXTREME SRN FA UNDER THE STEERING GUIDANCE OF BUILDING UPR LVL SRN
CONUS/MEX HIGH. LR MDLS DIVERGE ON HOW TO HANDLE THE COL WITH THE
GFS KICKING IT OUT UNDER THE INFLUENCE A THE FIRST UPSTREAM SW TROF
APPROACHING THE PAC NW SUNDAY...MODELED WELL SPATIALLY AND
TEMPORALLY BY BOTH THE GFS AND EURO BY THE WAY...WHILE THE EURO IS NOT
AFFECTED BY THIS FIRST WAVE IN THE SAME WAY AND WAITS FOR THE SECOND
WAVE TO KICK IT OUT BY TUE MORNING. HOWEVER...BOTH RESULT IN SIMILAR
SOLUTIONS THRU THIS FCST PERIOD REGARDLESS...REALLY ONLY AFFECTING
EXTENDED WX POSSIBILITIES BEYOND THIS EXTEND FCST.
&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
STORMS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE FAR SOUTHERN WYOMING BORDER UNTIL 02Z
TUE. THE ACTIVITY WILL SHOULD SOUTH OF THE KRKS AIRPORT. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEST OF THE DIVIDE AFTER 21Z TUESDAY BUT THESE MOST OF THESE SHOULD
REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A BUILDING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS PRESENT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A BIT
OF BREEZE MAY DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
WIND CORRIDOR BUT SHOULD MAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS.  THE CHANCES OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM
TROUGH APPROACHES. WINDS WILL INCREASE BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY
AS WELL.
&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...BRAUN
AVIATION...HATTINGS
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS





000
FXUS65 KRIW 152036
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
236 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

MOST OF THE STATE IS EXPERIENCING A NICE SEPTEMBER DAY WITH PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS. THERE IS A BIT OF HAZE
AROUND IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME SMOKE MOVING IN FROM THE FIRES IN
CALIFORNIA. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A BIT OF CONVECTION NOTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF UTAH AND COLORADO WHERE SOME DEEPER MOISTURE IS FOUND.
AT THIS POINT...WE HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WE MAY HAVE TO ADD SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN SWEETWATER COUNTY IF ANYTHING SNEAKS
NORTHWARD. THIS WILL BE A GAMETIME DECISION THOUGH. ANY CONVECTION
SHOULD END THIS EVENING WITH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING LOOKING DRY
WITH MAINLY LIGHT WINDS.

WE DID MAKE A BIT OF CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THOUGH. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. A
COUPLE OF MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM BUT ALSO THE EUROPEAN TRY TO
FIRE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA. MEANWHILE...THE GFS LOOKS DRY. FOR NOW...WE
COMPROMISED FOR HAVING ISOLATED CONVECTION AND HAVING IT REMAIN
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE DIVIDE. AS FOR EAST OF
THE DIVIDE...EXPECT ANOTHER MAINLY DRY AND WARM DAY WITH A BIT MORE
OF A BREEZE IN THE FAVORED AREAS BUT NOTHING UNUSUAL FOR WYOMING.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

CURRENT AMPLIFIED/DIRTYING RIDGE WRN CONUS WITH DECENT TROF WEST OF
THE RIDGE OVR EPAC AND WITH SEVERAL RATHER WEAK SW IMPULSES DUE TO
MOVE THRU THE RIDGE OVR TIME. BROAD TROF ACROSS ERN CONUS.

BEGINNING OF THE FCST PERIOD...CURRENT WEAK SW MOVING UP RIDGE AND
JUST NOW CUTTING INTO NRN CALIFORNIA WILL AFFECT OUR WRN FA TO A
MINOR EXTENT...WITH INCREASED MID/UPR MOISTURE BUT ONLY WEAK
DYNAMICAL FORCING. WILL NEED TO ALSO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE MOUNTAIN
TERRAIN IN ORDER TO SQUEEZE OUT MORE THAN SPRINKLES AND ACTUALLY
MEASURE...BUT IT`S POSSIBLE. WED...THE NEXT WEAK RIDGE
RIDING/TOPPING SW MOVES ACROSS THE PEAK OF THE RIDGE. GOOD STRONG
LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM ON A RELATIVELY WARM DAY...BUT
AGAIN LITTLE MOISTURE WILL NOT MUCH MORE THAN A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT
SHOWERS WITH LOW QPF THRU THE EVENING PERIOD OVR THE WRN MOUNTAINS.
THEN BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH APPROACH OF WRN TROF HELPING TO PUSH
RIDGE ACROSS THE FA...THE WRN CWA WILL OPEN UP TO SW FLOW AND
LEADING LIFT AND UPR DIFLUENCE...ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER/DEEPER
MOISTURE...ALBEIT MOSTLY MID/UPR LVL AT FIRST. MOISTURE FEED FROM
SWRN CONUS AND THEN EX-HURRICANE ODILE WILL HELP EVER SO SLIGHTLY IN
INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SWRN/SRN
ZONES...AS ZONES ACROSS THE CNTRL...ERN AND NRN ZONES WILL HAVE TO
DO SOME WORK AT MOISTENING UP TO OVERCOME THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS
WORTH OF DRY AIR. OTHERWISE...SPLITTING TROF...W SRN PORTION LOSING
WRN UPR LVL ATTACHMENT AND BECOMING CUT OFF...WILL MOSTLY CLEAR THE
REGION OVERNIGHT FRIDAY...WITH DRYING ENSUING SAT.

BEYOND SAT...MOSTLY DRY/DRYING WEEKEND IN STORE ACROSS THE REGION W/
ONLY THE SLIGHTEST OF PRECIP POSSIBILITIES SHOWING UP ACROSS THE
EXTREME SRN FA UNDER THE STEERING GUIDANCE OF BUILDING UPR LVL SRN
CONUS/MEX HIGH. LR MDLS DIVERGE ON HOW TO HANDLE THE COL WITH THE
GFS KICKING IT OUT UNDER THE INFLUENCE A THE FIRST UPSTREAM SW TROF
APPROACHING THE PAC NW SUNDAY...MODELED WELL SPATIALLY AND
TEMPORALLY BY BOTH THE GFS AND EURO BY THE WAY...WHILE THE EURO IS NOT
AFFECTED BY THIS FIRST WAVE IN THE SAME WAY AND WAITS FOR THE SECOND
WAVE TO KICK IT OUT BY TUE MORNING. HOWEVER...BOTH RESULT IN SIMILAR
SOLUTIONS THRU THIS FCST PERIOD REGARDLESS...REALLY ONLY AFFECTING
EXTENDED WX POSSIBILITIES BEYOND THIS EXTEND FCST.
&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
STORMS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE FAR SOUTHERN WYOMING BORDER UNTIL 02Z
TUE. THE ACTIVITY WILL SHOULD SOUTH OF THE KRKS AIRPORT. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEST OF THE DIVIDE AFTER 21Z TUESDAY BUT THESE MOST OF THESE SHOULD
REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A BUILDING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS PRESENT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A BIT
OF BREEZE MAY DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
WIND CORRIDOR BUT SHOULD MAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS.  THE CHANCES OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM
TROUGH APPROACHES. WINDS WILL INCREASE BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY
AS WELL.
&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...BRAUN
AVIATION...HATTINGS
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS





000
FXUS65 KRIW 152036
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
236 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

MOST OF THE STATE IS EXPERIENCING A NICE SEPTEMBER DAY WITH PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS. THERE IS A BIT OF HAZE
AROUND IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME SMOKE MOVING IN FROM THE FIRES IN
CALIFORNIA. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A BIT OF CONVECTION NOTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF UTAH AND COLORADO WHERE SOME DEEPER MOISTURE IS FOUND.
AT THIS POINT...WE HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WE MAY HAVE TO ADD SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN SWEETWATER COUNTY IF ANYTHING SNEAKS
NORTHWARD. THIS WILL BE A GAMETIME DECISION THOUGH. ANY CONVECTION
SHOULD END THIS EVENING WITH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING LOOKING DRY
WITH MAINLY LIGHT WINDS.

WE DID MAKE A BIT OF CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THOUGH. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. A
COUPLE OF MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM BUT ALSO THE EUROPEAN TRY TO
FIRE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA. MEANWHILE...THE GFS LOOKS DRY. FOR NOW...WE
COMPROMISED FOR HAVING ISOLATED CONVECTION AND HAVING IT REMAIN
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE DIVIDE. AS FOR EAST OF
THE DIVIDE...EXPECT ANOTHER MAINLY DRY AND WARM DAY WITH A BIT MORE
OF A BREEZE IN THE FAVORED AREAS BUT NOTHING UNUSUAL FOR WYOMING.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

CURRENT AMPLIFIED/DIRTYING RIDGE WRN CONUS WITH DECENT TROF WEST OF
THE RIDGE OVR EPAC AND WITH SEVERAL RATHER WEAK SW IMPULSES DUE TO
MOVE THRU THE RIDGE OVR TIME. BROAD TROF ACROSS ERN CONUS.

BEGINNING OF THE FCST PERIOD...CURRENT WEAK SW MOVING UP RIDGE AND
JUST NOW CUTTING INTO NRN CALIFORNIA WILL AFFECT OUR WRN FA TO A
MINOR EXTENT...WITH INCREASED MID/UPR MOISTURE BUT ONLY WEAK
DYNAMICAL FORCING. WILL NEED TO ALSO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE MOUNTAIN
TERRAIN IN ORDER TO SQUEEZE OUT MORE THAN SPRINKLES AND ACTUALLY
MEASURE...BUT IT`S POSSIBLE. WED...THE NEXT WEAK RIDGE
RIDING/TOPPING SW MOVES ACROSS THE PEAK OF THE RIDGE. GOOD STRONG
LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM ON A RELATIVELY WARM DAY...BUT
AGAIN LITTLE MOISTURE WILL NOT MUCH MORE THAN A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT
SHOWERS WITH LOW QPF THRU THE EVENING PERIOD OVR THE WRN MOUNTAINS.
THEN BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH APPROACH OF WRN TROF HELPING TO PUSH
RIDGE ACROSS THE FA...THE WRN CWA WILL OPEN UP TO SW FLOW AND
LEADING LIFT AND UPR DIFLUENCE...ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER/DEEPER
MOISTURE...ALBEIT MOSTLY MID/UPR LVL AT FIRST. MOISTURE FEED FROM
SWRN CONUS AND THEN EX-HURRICANE ODILE WILL HELP EVER SO SLIGHTLY IN
INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SWRN/SRN
ZONES...AS ZONES ACROSS THE CNTRL...ERN AND NRN ZONES WILL HAVE TO
DO SOME WORK AT MOISTENING UP TO OVERCOME THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS
WORTH OF DRY AIR. OTHERWISE...SPLITTING TROF...W SRN PORTION LOSING
WRN UPR LVL ATTACHMENT AND BECOMING CUT OFF...WILL MOSTLY CLEAR THE
REGION OVERNIGHT FRIDAY...WITH DRYING ENSUING SAT.

BEYOND SAT...MOSTLY DRY/DRYING WEEKEND IN STORE ACROSS THE REGION W/
ONLY THE SLIGHTEST OF PRECIP POSSIBILITIES SHOWING UP ACROSS THE
EXTREME SRN FA UNDER THE STEERING GUIDANCE OF BUILDING UPR LVL SRN
CONUS/MEX HIGH. LR MDLS DIVERGE ON HOW TO HANDLE THE COL WITH THE
GFS KICKING IT OUT UNDER THE INFLUENCE A THE FIRST UPSTREAM SW TROF
APPROACHING THE PAC NW SUNDAY...MODELED WELL SPATIALLY AND
TEMPORALLY BY BOTH THE GFS AND EURO BY THE WAY...WHILE THE EURO IS NOT
AFFECTED BY THIS FIRST WAVE IN THE SAME WAY AND WAITS FOR THE SECOND
WAVE TO KICK IT OUT BY TUE MORNING. HOWEVER...BOTH RESULT IN SIMILAR
SOLUTIONS THRU THIS FCST PERIOD REGARDLESS...REALLY ONLY AFFECTING
EXTENDED WX POSSIBILITIES BEYOND THIS EXTEND FCST.
&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
STORMS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE FAR SOUTHERN WYOMING BORDER UNTIL 02Z
TUE. THE ACTIVITY WILL SHOULD SOUTH OF THE KRKS AIRPORT. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEST OF THE DIVIDE AFTER 21Z TUESDAY BUT THESE MOST OF THESE SHOULD
REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A BUILDING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS PRESENT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A BIT
OF BREEZE MAY DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
WIND CORRIDOR BUT SHOULD MAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS.  THE CHANCES OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM
TROUGH APPROACHES. WINDS WILL INCREASE BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY
AS WELL.
&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...BRAUN
AVIATION...HATTINGS
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS





000
FXUS63 KUNR 151940
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
140 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 138 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE
LATEST WATER VAPOR AND 500-MB HEIGHTS SHOW A RATHER SHARP RIDGE
OVER THE WRN CONUS...WITH A BROAD/LARGE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS.
THIS PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE RIDGE
TRANSLATES VERY SLOWLY EWD. NORTHWEST FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE
WILL BRING ONLY SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE
EXCEPTION COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG OVER FAR SRN AREAS OF THE CWA
LATE TNGT/ERLY TUE MRNG WHERE FOG WAS PRESENT THIS MRNG.
HOWEVER...EXPECT THE WINDS TO BE BIT STRONGER TNGT WITH MORE BLYR
MIXING AS THE SFC HIGH PRES MOVES SOUTHEAST. WARM ADVECTION ALSO
WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND TUE...WITH TEMPS ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
HIGHER THAN TODAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z
WED.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 138 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR
TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS THE
CWA AND BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY. WITH THERMAL RIDGE OVER
THE AREA...WILL SEE THE WARMEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK. A WEAK UPPER
TROF AND COOL FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THE WESTERN RIDGE THEN REFORMS AND BUILDS AGAIN ON
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE FORECAST AREA INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON
ISSUED AT 138 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...MLS






000
FXUS63 KUNR 151940
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
140 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 138 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE
LATEST WATER VAPOR AND 500-MB HEIGHTS SHOW A RATHER SHARP RIDGE
OVER THE WRN CONUS...WITH A BROAD/LARGE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS.
THIS PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE RIDGE
TRANSLATES VERY SLOWLY EWD. NORTHWEST FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE
WILL BRING ONLY SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE
EXCEPTION COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG OVER FAR SRN AREAS OF THE CWA
LATE TNGT/ERLY TUE MRNG WHERE FOG WAS PRESENT THIS MRNG.
HOWEVER...EXPECT THE WINDS TO BE BIT STRONGER TNGT WITH MORE BLYR
MIXING AS THE SFC HIGH PRES MOVES SOUTHEAST. WARM ADVECTION ALSO
WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND TUE...WITH TEMPS ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
HIGHER THAN TODAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z
WED.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 138 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR
TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS THE
CWA AND BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY. WITH THERMAL RIDGE OVER
THE AREA...WILL SEE THE WARMEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK. A WEAK UPPER
TROF AND COOL FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THE WESTERN RIDGE THEN REFORMS AND BUILDS AGAIN ON
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE FORECAST AREA INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON
ISSUED AT 138 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...MLS





000
FXUS65 KCYS 151723
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1123 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM. CHALLENGES DEAL WITH
STRATUS/FOG POSSIBILITIES THIS MORNING AND TUESDAY MORNING.

CURRENTLY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYS OVER THE CWFA THIS
MORNING...BASICALLY FROM JUST WEST OF CHEYENNE OUT TO RAWLINS AND
THEN NORTHWEST INTO EASTERN IDAHO EARLY THIS MORNING. EAST OF THIS
FRONT WE ARE SEEING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND POOLING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. THIS MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN THIS MORNING ON THE 11-3.9U
SATELLITE IMAGERY...MAINLY FROM NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH
ALLIANCE TO AROUND KIMBALL. CEILINGS ARE DROPPING AT BOTH ALLIANCE
AND SIDNEY THIS MORNING AND COULD STAY IN FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING.
THIS COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES OUT THERE.
REST OF THE CWFA UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW 40S.

KEPT FOG AND STRATUS GOING FOR AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
THROUGH MID MORNING TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE COOLER ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS CHEYENNE IN
THIS NORTHEAST UPSLOPE WIND FLOW. GENERALLY LOOKING AT MID TO UPPER
60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND HERE AT CHEYENNE WITH LOW TO
MID 70S ELSEWHERE. GOING TO BE A DRY DAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SNOWY AND SIERRA
MADRE RANGES.

COULD SEE A REPEAT TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS LOW
LEVEL SURFACE WINDS TURN SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THIS AREA. SURFACE
HIGH MOVES FROM NORTHWEST NEBRASKA TO SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA OVER
THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRATUS LAYER
DEVELOPING OVER SIDNEY ON THE SOUNDINGS. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED SOME
PATCHY FOG OUT THAT WAY FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE OVERHEAD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
ADVERTISED IN GUIDANCE. SHOULD SEE SOME REALLY COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO
AROUND +10 TO +12C. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY AS THE
GFS ADVERTISES +14C OVER CARBON COUNTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SHOULD
BE SEEING LOW 80S WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH UPPER 80S AND
POSSIBLY SOME LOW 90S IN THE PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE TRANQUIL WEATHER WITH
GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...ESPECIALLY ON THURS AND FRI. THE
MIDLVL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVERHEAD ON THURS WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL CAUSE HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE MID-TO-
UPPER 80S TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS
OFF THE WEST COAST ON THURS IS PROGGED TO SPLIT WITH MUCH OF THE
ENERGY GOING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER CALIFORNIA. THIS LEAVES A
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM THAT MOVES ACROSS MONTANA ON FRI.
WHILE THE BEST MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
CWA...MIDLVL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH SFC FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ON FRI AFTN THROUGH
THE EVENING. NONE OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A PARTICULARLY
WIDESPREAD OR HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT. TEMPS WILL THEN TURN COOLER ON
SAT AND SUN BEHIND THE FRI FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER
WITH RISING HEIGHTS ON THE WEEKEND AND FEATURES A DRIER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE GFS WOULD CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER SOUTHEAST WY AS A WEAK MIDLVL DISTURBANCE MOVES UP FROM
THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL MAKE FOR LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES ACROSS A MAJORITY OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TODAY. A FEW ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT MIGHT
DEVELOP BUT OVERALL AVIATION CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL AS THE COVERAGE
WILL BE VERY SPARSE. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
VFR IN PLACE. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT COULD ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY THIN
FOG INTO LOW LYING AREAS BUT ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY ERODE AFTER
SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

WARMING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEK WITH AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S EACH
AFTERNOON. WINDS LOOK TO BE LIGHT...THOUGH WE COULD SEE SOME
AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS TO 20 MPH AT TIMES. WITH FUELS REPORTED AS
GREEN OUT WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD
BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB







000
FXUS65 KCYS 151723
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1123 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM. CHALLENGES DEAL WITH
STRATUS/FOG POSSIBILITIES THIS MORNING AND TUESDAY MORNING.

CURRENTLY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYS OVER THE CWFA THIS
MORNING...BASICALLY FROM JUST WEST OF CHEYENNE OUT TO RAWLINS AND
THEN NORTHWEST INTO EASTERN IDAHO EARLY THIS MORNING. EAST OF THIS
FRONT WE ARE SEEING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND POOLING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. THIS MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN THIS MORNING ON THE 11-3.9U
SATELLITE IMAGERY...MAINLY FROM NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH
ALLIANCE TO AROUND KIMBALL. CEILINGS ARE DROPPING AT BOTH ALLIANCE
AND SIDNEY THIS MORNING AND COULD STAY IN FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING.
THIS COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES OUT THERE.
REST OF THE CWFA UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW 40S.

KEPT FOG AND STRATUS GOING FOR AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
THROUGH MID MORNING TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE COOLER ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS CHEYENNE IN
THIS NORTHEAST UPSLOPE WIND FLOW. GENERALLY LOOKING AT MID TO UPPER
60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND HERE AT CHEYENNE WITH LOW TO
MID 70S ELSEWHERE. GOING TO BE A DRY DAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SNOWY AND SIERRA
MADRE RANGES.

COULD SEE A REPEAT TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS LOW
LEVEL SURFACE WINDS TURN SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THIS AREA. SURFACE
HIGH MOVES FROM NORTHWEST NEBRASKA TO SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA OVER
THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRATUS LAYER
DEVELOPING OVER SIDNEY ON THE SOUNDINGS. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED SOME
PATCHY FOG OUT THAT WAY FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE OVERHEAD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
ADVERTISED IN GUIDANCE. SHOULD SEE SOME REALLY COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO
AROUND +10 TO +12C. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY AS THE
GFS ADVERTISES +14C OVER CARBON COUNTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SHOULD
BE SEEING LOW 80S WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH UPPER 80S AND
POSSIBLY SOME LOW 90S IN THE PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE TRANQUIL WEATHER WITH
GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...ESPECIALLY ON THURS AND FRI. THE
MIDLVL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVERHEAD ON THURS WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL CAUSE HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE MID-TO-
UPPER 80S TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS
OFF THE WEST COAST ON THURS IS PROGGED TO SPLIT WITH MUCH OF THE
ENERGY GOING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER CALIFORNIA. THIS LEAVES A
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM THAT MOVES ACROSS MONTANA ON FRI.
WHILE THE BEST MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
CWA...MIDLVL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH SFC FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ON FRI AFTN THROUGH
THE EVENING. NONE OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A PARTICULARLY
WIDESPREAD OR HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT. TEMPS WILL THEN TURN COOLER ON
SAT AND SUN BEHIND THE FRI FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER
WITH RISING HEIGHTS ON THE WEEKEND AND FEATURES A DRIER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE GFS WOULD CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER SOUTHEAST WY AS A WEAK MIDLVL DISTURBANCE MOVES UP FROM
THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL MAKE FOR LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES ACROSS A MAJORITY OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TODAY. A FEW ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT MIGHT
DEVELOP BUT OVERALL AVIATION CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL AS THE COVERAGE
WILL BE VERY SPARSE. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
VFR IN PLACE. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT COULD ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY THIN
FOG INTO LOW LYING AREAS BUT ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY ERODE AFTER
SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

WARMING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEK WITH AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S EACH
AFTERNOON. WINDS LOOK TO BE LIGHT...THOUGH WE COULD SEE SOME
AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS TO 20 MPH AT TIMES. WITH FUELS REPORTED AS
GREEN OUT WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD
BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB







000
FXUS65 KCYS 151723
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1123 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM. CHALLENGES DEAL WITH
STRATUS/FOG POSSIBILITIES THIS MORNING AND TUESDAY MORNING.

CURRENTLY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYS OVER THE CWFA THIS
MORNING...BASICALLY FROM JUST WEST OF CHEYENNE OUT TO RAWLINS AND
THEN NORTHWEST INTO EASTERN IDAHO EARLY THIS MORNING. EAST OF THIS
FRONT WE ARE SEEING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND POOLING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. THIS MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN THIS MORNING ON THE 11-3.9U
SATELLITE IMAGERY...MAINLY FROM NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH
ALLIANCE TO AROUND KIMBALL. CEILINGS ARE DROPPING AT BOTH ALLIANCE
AND SIDNEY THIS MORNING AND COULD STAY IN FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING.
THIS COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES OUT THERE.
REST OF THE CWFA UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW 40S.

KEPT FOG AND STRATUS GOING FOR AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
THROUGH MID MORNING TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE COOLER ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS CHEYENNE IN
THIS NORTHEAST UPSLOPE WIND FLOW. GENERALLY LOOKING AT MID TO UPPER
60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND HERE AT CHEYENNE WITH LOW TO
MID 70S ELSEWHERE. GOING TO BE A DRY DAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SNOWY AND SIERRA
MADRE RANGES.

COULD SEE A REPEAT TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS LOW
LEVEL SURFACE WINDS TURN SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THIS AREA. SURFACE
HIGH MOVES FROM NORTHWEST NEBRASKA TO SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA OVER
THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRATUS LAYER
DEVELOPING OVER SIDNEY ON THE SOUNDINGS. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED SOME
PATCHY FOG OUT THAT WAY FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE OVERHEAD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
ADVERTISED IN GUIDANCE. SHOULD SEE SOME REALLY COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO
AROUND +10 TO +12C. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY AS THE
GFS ADVERTISES +14C OVER CARBON COUNTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SHOULD
BE SEEING LOW 80S WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH UPPER 80S AND
POSSIBLY SOME LOW 90S IN THE PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE TRANQUIL WEATHER WITH
GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...ESPECIALLY ON THURS AND FRI. THE
MIDLVL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVERHEAD ON THURS WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL CAUSE HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE MID-TO-
UPPER 80S TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS
OFF THE WEST COAST ON THURS IS PROGGED TO SPLIT WITH MUCH OF THE
ENERGY GOING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER CALIFORNIA. THIS LEAVES A
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM THAT MOVES ACROSS MONTANA ON FRI.
WHILE THE BEST MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
CWA...MIDLVL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH SFC FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ON FRI AFTN THROUGH
THE EVENING. NONE OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A PARTICULARLY
WIDESPREAD OR HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT. TEMPS WILL THEN TURN COOLER ON
SAT AND SUN BEHIND THE FRI FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER
WITH RISING HEIGHTS ON THE WEEKEND AND FEATURES A DRIER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE GFS WOULD CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER SOUTHEAST WY AS A WEAK MIDLVL DISTURBANCE MOVES UP FROM
THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL MAKE FOR LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES ACROSS A MAJORITY OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TODAY. A FEW ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT MIGHT
DEVELOP BUT OVERALL AVIATION CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL AS THE COVERAGE
WILL BE VERY SPARSE. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
VFR IN PLACE. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT COULD ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY THIN
FOG INTO LOW LYING AREAS BUT ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY ERODE AFTER
SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

WARMING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEK WITH AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S EACH
AFTERNOON. WINDS LOOK TO BE LIGHT...THOUGH WE COULD SEE SOME
AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS TO 20 MPH AT TIMES. WITH FUELS REPORTED AS
GREEN OUT WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD
BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB







000
FXUS65 KCYS 151723
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1123 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM. CHALLENGES DEAL WITH
STRATUS/FOG POSSIBILITIES THIS MORNING AND TUESDAY MORNING.

CURRENTLY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYS OVER THE CWFA THIS
MORNING...BASICALLY FROM JUST WEST OF CHEYENNE OUT TO RAWLINS AND
THEN NORTHWEST INTO EASTERN IDAHO EARLY THIS MORNING. EAST OF THIS
FRONT WE ARE SEEING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND POOLING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. THIS MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN THIS MORNING ON THE 11-3.9U
SATELLITE IMAGERY...MAINLY FROM NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH
ALLIANCE TO AROUND KIMBALL. CEILINGS ARE DROPPING AT BOTH ALLIANCE
AND SIDNEY THIS MORNING AND COULD STAY IN FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING.
THIS COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES OUT THERE.
REST OF THE CWFA UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW 40S.

KEPT FOG AND STRATUS GOING FOR AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
THROUGH MID MORNING TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE COOLER ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS CHEYENNE IN
THIS NORTHEAST UPSLOPE WIND FLOW. GENERALLY LOOKING AT MID TO UPPER
60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND HERE AT CHEYENNE WITH LOW TO
MID 70S ELSEWHERE. GOING TO BE A DRY DAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SNOWY AND SIERRA
MADRE RANGES.

COULD SEE A REPEAT TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS LOW
LEVEL SURFACE WINDS TURN SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THIS AREA. SURFACE
HIGH MOVES FROM NORTHWEST NEBRASKA TO SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA OVER
THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRATUS LAYER
DEVELOPING OVER SIDNEY ON THE SOUNDINGS. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED SOME
PATCHY FOG OUT THAT WAY FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE OVERHEAD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
ADVERTISED IN GUIDANCE. SHOULD SEE SOME REALLY COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO
AROUND +10 TO +12C. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY AS THE
GFS ADVERTISES +14C OVER CARBON COUNTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SHOULD
BE SEEING LOW 80S WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH UPPER 80S AND
POSSIBLY SOME LOW 90S IN THE PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE TRANQUIL WEATHER WITH
GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...ESPECIALLY ON THURS AND FRI. THE
MIDLVL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVERHEAD ON THURS WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL CAUSE HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE MID-TO-
UPPER 80S TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS
OFF THE WEST COAST ON THURS IS PROGGED TO SPLIT WITH MUCH OF THE
ENERGY GOING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER CALIFORNIA. THIS LEAVES A
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM THAT MOVES ACROSS MONTANA ON FRI.
WHILE THE BEST MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
CWA...MIDLVL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH SFC FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ON FRI AFTN THROUGH
THE EVENING. NONE OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A PARTICULARLY
WIDESPREAD OR HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT. TEMPS WILL THEN TURN COOLER ON
SAT AND SUN BEHIND THE FRI FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER
WITH RISING HEIGHTS ON THE WEEKEND AND FEATURES A DRIER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE GFS WOULD CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER SOUTHEAST WY AS A WEAK MIDLVL DISTURBANCE MOVES UP FROM
THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL MAKE FOR LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES ACROSS A MAJORITY OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TODAY. A FEW ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT MIGHT
DEVELOP BUT OVERALL AVIATION CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL AS THE COVERAGE
WILL BE VERY SPARSE. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
VFR IN PLACE. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT COULD ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY THIN
FOG INTO LOW LYING AREAS BUT ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY ERODE AFTER
SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

WARMING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEK WITH AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S EACH
AFTERNOON. WINDS LOOK TO BE LIGHT...THOUGH WE COULD SEE SOME
AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS TO 20 MPH AT TIMES. WITH FUELS REPORTED AS
GREEN OUT WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD
BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB







000
FXUS63 KUNR 151722
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1122 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 716 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

SFC OBS AND WEBCAMS SHOW SOME PATCHY FOG FROM THE BLKHLS INTO SWRN
SD...SO HAVE INCLUDED THAT IN THE FCST THRU 15Z. GIVEN SUNNY SKIES
AND SHALLOW MOISTURE THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THAT TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO THE WEST WILL COMBINE WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO PRODUCE SUNNY SKIES OVER THE AREA TODAY. SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...DOWNSLOPING
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK NOCTURNAL LLJ WILL KEEP
LOW TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS.
TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S AS THE THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE INCREASES AND THE
RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS FOR MID WEEK...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS THE CWA
ON THURSDAY. WITH THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE AREA...WILL SEE THE
WARMEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY THURSDAY EVENING OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS.
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST AND BREAK DOWN AS AN UPPER
TROF SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
WITH INCREASING PACIFIC MOISTURE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
WESTERN RIDGE THEN REFORMS AND BUILDS AGAIN ON SUNDAY...RESULTING
IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 1122 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BUNKERS
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...MLS







000
FXUS63 KUNR 151722
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1122 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 716 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

SFC OBS AND WEBCAMS SHOW SOME PATCHY FOG FROM THE BLKHLS INTO SWRN
SD...SO HAVE INCLUDED THAT IN THE FCST THRU 15Z. GIVEN SUNNY SKIES
AND SHALLOW MOISTURE THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THAT TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO THE WEST WILL COMBINE WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO PRODUCE SUNNY SKIES OVER THE AREA TODAY. SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...DOWNSLOPING
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK NOCTURNAL LLJ WILL KEEP
LOW TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS.
TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S AS THE THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE INCREASES AND THE
RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS FOR MID WEEK...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS THE CWA
ON THURSDAY. WITH THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE AREA...WILL SEE THE
WARMEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY THURSDAY EVENING OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS.
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST AND BREAK DOWN AS AN UPPER
TROF SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
WITH INCREASING PACIFIC MOISTURE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
WESTERN RIDGE THEN REFORMS AND BUILDS AGAIN ON SUNDAY...RESULTING
IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 1122 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BUNKERS
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...MLS







000
FXUS63 KUNR 151722
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1122 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 716 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

SFC OBS AND WEBCAMS SHOW SOME PATCHY FOG FROM THE BLKHLS INTO SWRN
SD...SO HAVE INCLUDED THAT IN THE FCST THRU 15Z. GIVEN SUNNY SKIES
AND SHALLOW MOISTURE THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THAT TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO THE WEST WILL COMBINE WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO PRODUCE SUNNY SKIES OVER THE AREA TODAY. SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...DOWNSLOPING
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK NOCTURNAL LLJ WILL KEEP
LOW TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS.
TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S AS THE THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE INCREASES AND THE
RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS FOR MID WEEK...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS THE CWA
ON THURSDAY. WITH THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE AREA...WILL SEE THE
WARMEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY THURSDAY EVENING OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS.
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST AND BREAK DOWN AS AN UPPER
TROF SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
WITH INCREASING PACIFIC MOISTURE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
WESTERN RIDGE THEN REFORMS AND BUILDS AGAIN ON SUNDAY...RESULTING
IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 1122 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BUNKERS
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...MLS







000
FXUS63 KUNR 151722
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1122 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 716 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

SFC OBS AND WEBCAMS SHOW SOME PATCHY FOG FROM THE BLKHLS INTO SWRN
SD...SO HAVE INCLUDED THAT IN THE FCST THRU 15Z. GIVEN SUNNY SKIES
AND SHALLOW MOISTURE THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THAT TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO THE WEST WILL COMBINE WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO PRODUCE SUNNY SKIES OVER THE AREA TODAY. SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...DOWNSLOPING
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK NOCTURNAL LLJ WILL KEEP
LOW TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS.
TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S AS THE THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE INCREASES AND THE
RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS FOR MID WEEK...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS THE CWA
ON THURSDAY. WITH THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE AREA...WILL SEE THE
WARMEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY THURSDAY EVENING OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS.
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST AND BREAK DOWN AS AN UPPER
TROF SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
WITH INCREASING PACIFIC MOISTURE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
WESTERN RIDGE THEN REFORMS AND BUILDS AGAIN ON SUNDAY...RESULTING
IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 1122 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BUNKERS
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...MLS







000
FXUS65 KRIW 151708
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1108 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THE LAST IN A SERIES OF GLANCES FROM DRY SHORTWAVES DIVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
EXITING MAIN TROUGH AND ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE APPROACHING HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE NOW ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST IS TAKING PLACE. EAST
WINDS BEHIND THE ASCT BACKDOOR DRY COOL FRONT HAVE ALREADY
DIMINISHED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY AS FAR
SOUTHWEST AS FARSON AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING. TODAY AND TUESDAY
WILL FEATURE RATHER BENIGN PLEASANT FALL WEATHER AS THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MAKES ITS WAY TO THE ROCKIES. AFTER ALL...WE
CANNOT COMPLETELY DISMISS FALL BEFORE WINTER ARRIVES. TEMPS WILL
STEADILY RISE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS WAY UP IN THE MID 80S
AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY THEN AND WELL UP
INTO THE 70S WEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A RESULTING SURFACE LEE SIDE TROUGH
AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH APPROACHES AND THE RIDGE FLATTENS
RESULTING IN INCREASED WINDS. SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL MOVE IN WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WEDNESDAY ALONG
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY...JUST ENOUGH FOR SOME WEAK SPOTTY
CONVECTION OUT WEST.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
EVEN MORE SPLITTING IN THE UPCOMING TROUGH SHOWING UP IN THE
MODELS TONIGHT. SO MUCH SO...THAT IT`S QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH
MOISTURE AND FORCING WE ACTUALLY GET ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH
FROM THIS SYSTEM. WE`LL PROBABLY GET THE BEST SUPPORT IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH WITH SOME SUPPORT IN THE FAR WEST AND
NORTH FROM THE DEFORMATION AND FRONTAL ZONE AS IT MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WE END UP WITH THE A
LITTLE SUPPORT IN THE SOUTHWEST FROM THE NRN END OF THE SPLITTING
TROUGH TO OUR SW AND A LITTLE ACROSS THE NORTH FROM THE NORTHERN
PIECE OF THE TROUGH...OR WHAT`S LEFT OF IT. STILL MAY BE ENOUGH
DAYTIME HEATING AND FRONTAL FORCING FOR SOME LATE DAY
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST WITH THIS TROUGH BUT HARD TO GET TOO
EXCITED ANYMORE WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SURGE NWD. MINIMAL
ODILE MOISTURE WILL LIKELY GET ENTRAINED. MOST OF IT WILL STAY TO
THE SOUTH. OTHERWISE...RIDGE MOVES BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND ALBEIT
WITH SURFACE HIGH NEARBY TO KEEP US FROM FULLY MIXING AND LIKELY
NOT REACHING OUR MAX POTENTIAL BASED ON H7 TEMPS. HUGE DISCREPANCIES
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE ECMWF TAKES THE SRN PIECE OF OUR
SPLITTING TROUGH AND LIFTS IT NE ACROSS US LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT WELL SOUTH WITH A WARM RIDGE OVERHEAD. A
FEW GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORT THE OP ECMWF BUT MOST DO NOT. THE
12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORTED THE OP GFS RIDGE. NEIGHBORS
TO THE WEST AND SOUTH HAVE SOME POPS TO HEDGE TOWARDS THE REMNANT
UPPER GETTING CLOSE SO WILL HAVE JUST SOME ISOLATED POPS IN THE
FAR SOUTH LATE SUNDAY AND IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS OF THE FAR
WEST AND SOUTH MONDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS
OR STORMS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE FAR SOUTHERN WYOMING BORDER FROM 21Z
MON UNTIL 02Z TUE. THE ACTIVITY WILL SHOULD SOUTH OF THE KRKS
AIRPORT. ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY OCCUR NEAR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS ON
TUESDAY BUT WILL OCCUR AFTER 18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A BUILDING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS PRESENT WITH LITTLE WIND EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THE CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH APPROACHES.
WINDS WILL INCREASE BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY AS WELL.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...HATTINGS
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON












000
FXUS63 KUNR 151317
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
717 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 716 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

SFC OBS AND WEBCAMS SHOW SOME PATCHY FOG FROM THE BLKHLS INTO SWRN
SD...SO HAVE INCLUDED THAT IN THE FCST THRU 15Z. GIVEN SUNNY SKIES
AND SHALLOW MOISTURE THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THAT TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO THE WEST WILL COMBINE WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO PRODUCE SUNNY SKIES OVER THE AREA TODAY. SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...DOWNSLOPING
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK NOCTURNAL LLJ WILL KEEP
LOW TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS.
TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S AS THE THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE INCREASES AND THE
RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS FOR MID WEEK...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS THE CWA
ON THURSDAY. WITH THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE AREA...WILL SEE THE
WARMEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY THURSDAY EVENING OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS.
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST AND BREAK DOWN AS AN UPPER
TROF SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
WITH INCREASING PACIFIC MOISTURE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
WESTERN RIDGE THEN REFORMS AND BUILDS AGAIN ON SUNDAY...RESULTING
IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 716 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE BLKHLS INTO SWRN SD EARLY THIS
MRNG...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BUNKERS
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...BUNKERS




000
FXUS65 KCYS 151159
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
559 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM. CHALLENGES DEAL WITH
STRATUS/FOG POSSIBILITIES THIS MORNING AND TUESDAY MORNING.

CURRENTLY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYS OVER THE CWFA THIS
MORNING...BASICALLY FROM JUST WEST OF CHEYENNE OUT TO RAWLINS AND
THEN NORTHWEST INTO EASTERN IDAHO EARLY THIS MORNING. EAST OF THIS
FRONT WE ARE SEEING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND POOLING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. THIS MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN THIS MORNING ON THE 11-3.9U
SATELLITE IMAGERY...MAINLY FROM NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH
ALLIANCE TO AROUND KIMBALL. CEILINGS ARE DROPPING AT BOTH ALLIANCE
AND SIDNEY THIS MORNING AND COULD STAY IN FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING.
THIS COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES OUT THERE.
REST OF THE CWFA UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW 40S.

KEPT FOG AND STRATUS GOING FOR AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
THROUGH MID MORNING TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE COOLER ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS CHEYENNE IN
THIS NORTHEAST UPSLOPE WIND FLOW. GENERALLY LOOKING AT MID TO UPPER
60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND HERE AT CHEYENNE WITH LOW TO
MID 70S ELSEWHERE. GOING TO BE A DRY DAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SNOWY AND SIERRA
MADRE RANGES.

COULD SEE A REPEAT TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS LOW
LEVEL SURFACE WINDS TURN SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THIS AREA. SURFACE
HIGH MOVES FROM NORTHWEST NEBRASKA TO SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA OVER
THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRATUS LAYER
DEVELOPING OVER SIDNEY ON THE SOUNDINGS. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED SOME
PATCHY FOG OUT THAT WAY FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE OVERHEAD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
ADVERTISED IN GUIDANCE. SHOULD SEE SOME REALLY COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO
AROUND +10 TO +12C. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY AS THE
GFS ADVERTISES +14C OVER CARBON COUNTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SHOULD
BE SEEING LOW 80S WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH UPPER 80S AND
POSSIBLY SOME LOW 90S IN THE PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE TRANQUIL WEATHER WITH
GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...ESPECIALLY ON THURS AND FRI. THE
MIDLVL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVERHEAD ON THURS WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL CAUSE HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE MID-TO-
UPPER 80S TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS
OFF THE WEST COAST ON THURS IS PROGGED TO SPLIT WITH MUCH OF THE
ENERGY GOING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER CALIFORNIA. THIS LEAVES A
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM THAT MOVES ACROSS MONTANA ON FRI.
WHILE THE BEST MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
CWA...MIDLVL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH SFC FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ON FRI AFTN THROUGH
THE EVENING. NONE OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A PARTICULARLY
WIDESPREAD OR HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT. TEMPS WILL THEN TURN COOLER ON
SAT AND SUN BEHIND THE FRI FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER
WITH RISING HEIGHTS ON THE WEEKEND AND FEATURES A DRIER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE GFS WOULD CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER SOUTHEAST WY AS A WEAK MIDLVL DISTURBANCE MOVES UP FROM
THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 536 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
THROUGH MID-MORNING. WHILE MVFR CIGS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED AT
SNY...ALSO INCLUDED TEMPO IFR CIGS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH LOW CLOUDS
SPREADING WESTWARD TOWARD CYS...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME BELIEVE THEY
WILL STAY FURTHER EAST ALONG THE WY-NE BORDER. ALL LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 18Z. WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL
GENERALLY BE BELOW 15 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

WARMING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEK WITH AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S EACH
AFTERNOON. WINDS LOOK TO BE LIGHT...THOUGH WE COULD SEE SOME
AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS TO 20 MPH AT TIMES. WITH FUELS REPORTED AS
GREEN OUT WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD
BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB







000
FXUS65 KCYS 151159
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
559 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM. CHALLENGES DEAL WITH
STRATUS/FOG POSSIBILITIES THIS MORNING AND TUESDAY MORNING.

CURRENTLY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYS OVER THE CWFA THIS
MORNING...BASICALLY FROM JUST WEST OF CHEYENNE OUT TO RAWLINS AND
THEN NORTHWEST INTO EASTERN IDAHO EARLY THIS MORNING. EAST OF THIS
FRONT WE ARE SEEING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND POOLING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. THIS MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN THIS MORNING ON THE 11-3.9U
SATELLITE IMAGERY...MAINLY FROM NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH
ALLIANCE TO AROUND KIMBALL. CEILINGS ARE DROPPING AT BOTH ALLIANCE
AND SIDNEY THIS MORNING AND COULD STAY IN FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING.
THIS COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES OUT THERE.
REST OF THE CWFA UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW 40S.

KEPT FOG AND STRATUS GOING FOR AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
THROUGH MID MORNING TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE COOLER ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS CHEYENNE IN
THIS NORTHEAST UPSLOPE WIND FLOW. GENERALLY LOOKING AT MID TO UPPER
60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND HERE AT CHEYENNE WITH LOW TO
MID 70S ELSEWHERE. GOING TO BE A DRY DAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SNOWY AND SIERRA
MADRE RANGES.

COULD SEE A REPEAT TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS LOW
LEVEL SURFACE WINDS TURN SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THIS AREA. SURFACE
HIGH MOVES FROM NORTHWEST NEBRASKA TO SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA OVER
THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRATUS LAYER
DEVELOPING OVER SIDNEY ON THE SOUNDINGS. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED SOME
PATCHY FOG OUT THAT WAY FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE OVERHEAD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
ADVERTISED IN GUIDANCE. SHOULD SEE SOME REALLY COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO
AROUND +10 TO +12C. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY AS THE
GFS ADVERTISES +14C OVER CARBON COUNTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SHOULD
BE SEEING LOW 80S WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH UPPER 80S AND
POSSIBLY SOME LOW 90S IN THE PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE TRANQUIL WEATHER WITH
GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...ESPECIALLY ON THURS AND FRI. THE
MIDLVL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVERHEAD ON THURS WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL CAUSE HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE MID-TO-
UPPER 80S TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS
OFF THE WEST COAST ON THURS IS PROGGED TO SPLIT WITH MUCH OF THE
ENERGY GOING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER CALIFORNIA. THIS LEAVES A
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM THAT MOVES ACROSS MONTANA ON FRI.
WHILE THE BEST MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
CWA...MIDLVL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH SFC FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ON FRI AFTN THROUGH
THE EVENING. NONE OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A PARTICULARLY
WIDESPREAD OR HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT. TEMPS WILL THEN TURN COOLER ON
SAT AND SUN BEHIND THE FRI FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER
WITH RISING HEIGHTS ON THE WEEKEND AND FEATURES A DRIER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE GFS WOULD CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER SOUTHEAST WY AS A WEAK MIDLVL DISTURBANCE MOVES UP FROM
THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 536 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
THROUGH MID-MORNING. WHILE MVFR CIGS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED AT
SNY...ALSO INCLUDED TEMPO IFR CIGS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH LOW CLOUDS
SPREADING WESTWARD TOWARD CYS...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME BELIEVE THEY
WILL STAY FURTHER EAST ALONG THE WY-NE BORDER. ALL LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 18Z. WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL
GENERALLY BE BELOW 15 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

WARMING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEK WITH AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S EACH
AFTERNOON. WINDS LOOK TO BE LIGHT...THOUGH WE COULD SEE SOME
AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS TO 20 MPH AT TIMES. WITH FUELS REPORTED AS
GREEN OUT WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD
BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB






000
FXUS63 KUNR 151117
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
517 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO THE WEST WILL COMBINE WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO PRODUCE SUNNY SKIES OVER THE AREA TODAY. SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...DOWNSLOPING
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK NOCTURNAL LLJ WILL KEEP
LOW TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS.
TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S AS THE THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE INCREASES AND THE RIDGE SHIFTS
EASTWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS FOR MID WEEK...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS THE CWA
ON THURSDAY. WITH THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE AREA...WILL SEE THE WARMEST
TEMPS OF THE WEEK. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY
EVENING OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS. UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST AND BREAK DOWN AS AN UPPER TROF SWINGS
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH INCREASING
PACIFIC MOISTURE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. WESTERN RIDGE THEN
REFORMS AND BUILDS AGAIN ON SUNDAY...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 516 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15






000
FXUS65 KCYS 150937
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
337 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM. CHALLENGES DEAL WITH
STRATUS/FOG POSSIBILITIES THIS MORNING AND TUESDAY MORNING.

CURRENTLY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYS OVER THE CWFA THIS
MORNING...BASICALLY FROM JUST WEST OF CHEYENNE OUT TO RAWLINS AND
THEN NORTHWEST INTO EASTERN IDAHO EARLY THIS MORNING. EAST OF THIS
FRONT WE ARE SEEING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND POOLING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. THIS MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN THIS MORNING ON THE 11-3.9U
SATELLITE IMAGERY...MAINLY FROM NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH
ALLIANCE TO AROUND KIMBALL. CEILINGS ARE DROPPING AT BOTH ALLIANCE
AND SIDNEY THIS MORNING AND COULD STAY IN FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING.
THIS COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES OUT THERE.
REST OF THE CWFA UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW 40S.

KEPT FOG AND STRATUS GOING FOR AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
THROUGH MID MORNING TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE COOLER ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS CHEYENNE IN
THIS NORTHEAST UPSLOPE WIND FLOW. GENERALLY LOOKING AT MID TO UPPER
60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND HERE AT CHEYENNE WITH LOW TO
MID 70S ELSEWHERE. GOING TO BE A DRY DAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SNOWY AND SIERRA
MADRE RANGES.

COULD SEE A REPEAT TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS LOW
LEVEL SURFACE WINDS TURN SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THIS AREA. SURFACE
HIGH MOVES FROM NORTHWEST NEBRASKA TO SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA OVER
THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRATUS LAYER
DEVELOPING OVER SIDNEY ON THE SOUNDINGS. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED SOME
PATCHY FOG OUT THAT WAY FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE OVERHEAD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
ADVERTISED IN GUIDANCE. SHOULD SEE SOME REALLY COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO
AROUND +10 TO +12C. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY AS THE
GFS ADVERTISES +14C OVER CARBON COUNTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SHOULD
BE SEEING LOW 80S WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH UPPER 80S AND
POSSIBLY SOME LOW 90S IN THE PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE TRANQUIL WEATHER WITH
GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...ESPECIALLY ON THURS AND FRI. THE
MIDLVL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVERHEAD ON THURS WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL CAUSE HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE MID-TO-
UPPER 80S TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS
OFF THE WEST COAST ON THURS IS PROGGED TO SPLIT WITH MUCH OF THE
ENERGY GOING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER CALIFORNIA. THIS LEAVES A
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM THAT MOVES ACROSS MONTANA ON FRI.
WHILE THE BEST MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
CWA...MIDLVL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH SFC FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ON FRI AFTN THROUGH
THE EVENING. NONE OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A PARTICULARLY
WIDESPREAD OR HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT. TEMPS WILL THEN TURN COOLER ON
SAT AND SUN BEHIND THE FRI FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER
WITH RISING HEIGHTS ON THE WEEKEND AND FEATURES A DRIER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE GFS WOULD CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER SOUTHEAST WY AS A WEAK MIDLVL DISTURBANCE MOVES UP FROM
THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE WILL
FAVOR LOW CLOUD AND PATCHY FOG FORMATION EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. HRRR/SREF/NAM MODEL GUIDANCE DEVELOPS
MVFR TO LIFR CIGS AFTER 06Z...WITH MVFR VSBYS AT BFF AND CYS AND
IFR AT SNY. SNY MAY MAINTAIN THE LOW CIGS/VSBYS UNTIL 20Z...WITH
CYS...BFF AND AIA IMPROVING TO VFR FROM 16Z TO 18Z MONDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AT LAR AND RWL
WHERE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

WARMING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEK WITH AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S EACH
AFTERNOON. WINDS LOOK TO BE LIGHT...THOUGH WE COULD SEE SOME
AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS TO 20 MPH AT TIMES. WITH FUELS REPORTED AS
GREEN OUT WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD
BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB





000
FXUS65 KCYS 150937
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
337 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM. CHALLENGES DEAL WITH
STRATUS/FOG POSSIBILITIES THIS MORNING AND TUESDAY MORNING.

CURRENTLY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYS OVER THE CWFA THIS
MORNING...BASICALLY FROM JUST WEST OF CHEYENNE OUT TO RAWLINS AND
THEN NORTHWEST INTO EASTERN IDAHO EARLY THIS MORNING. EAST OF THIS
FRONT WE ARE SEEING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND POOLING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. THIS MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN THIS MORNING ON THE 11-3.9U
SATELLITE IMAGERY...MAINLY FROM NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH
ALLIANCE TO AROUND KIMBALL. CEILINGS ARE DROPPING AT BOTH ALLIANCE
AND SIDNEY THIS MORNING AND COULD STAY IN FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING.
THIS COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES OUT THERE.
REST OF THE CWFA UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW 40S.

KEPT FOG AND STRATUS GOING FOR AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
THROUGH MID MORNING TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE COOLER ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS CHEYENNE IN
THIS NORTHEAST UPSLOPE WIND FLOW. GENERALLY LOOKING AT MID TO UPPER
60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND HERE AT CHEYENNE WITH LOW TO
MID 70S ELSEWHERE. GOING TO BE A DRY DAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SNOWY AND SIERRA
MADRE RANGES.

COULD SEE A REPEAT TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS LOW
LEVEL SURFACE WINDS TURN SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THIS AREA. SURFACE
HIGH MOVES FROM NORTHWEST NEBRASKA TO SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA OVER
THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRATUS LAYER
DEVELOPING OVER SIDNEY ON THE SOUNDINGS. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED SOME
PATCHY FOG OUT THAT WAY FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE OVERHEAD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
ADVERTISED IN GUIDANCE. SHOULD SEE SOME REALLY COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO
AROUND +10 TO +12C. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY AS THE
GFS ADVERTISES +14C OVER CARBON COUNTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SHOULD
BE SEEING LOW 80S WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH UPPER 80S AND
POSSIBLY SOME LOW 90S IN THE PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE TRANQUIL WEATHER WITH
GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...ESPECIALLY ON THURS AND FRI. THE
MIDLVL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVERHEAD ON THURS WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL CAUSE HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE MID-TO-
UPPER 80S TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS
OFF THE WEST COAST ON THURS IS PROGGED TO SPLIT WITH MUCH OF THE
ENERGY GOING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER CALIFORNIA. THIS LEAVES A
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM THAT MOVES ACROSS MONTANA ON FRI.
WHILE THE BEST MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
CWA...MIDLVL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH SFC FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ON FRI AFTN THROUGH
THE EVENING. NONE OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A PARTICULARLY
WIDESPREAD OR HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT. TEMPS WILL THEN TURN COOLER ON
SAT AND SUN BEHIND THE FRI FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER
WITH RISING HEIGHTS ON THE WEEKEND AND FEATURES A DRIER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE GFS WOULD CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER SOUTHEAST WY AS A WEAK MIDLVL DISTURBANCE MOVES UP FROM
THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE WILL
FAVOR LOW CLOUD AND PATCHY FOG FORMATION EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. HRRR/SREF/NAM MODEL GUIDANCE DEVELOPS
MVFR TO LIFR CIGS AFTER 06Z...WITH MVFR VSBYS AT BFF AND CYS AND
IFR AT SNY. SNY MAY MAINTAIN THE LOW CIGS/VSBYS UNTIL 20Z...WITH
CYS...BFF AND AIA IMPROVING TO VFR FROM 16Z TO 18Z MONDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AT LAR AND RWL
WHERE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

WARMING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEK WITH AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S EACH
AFTERNOON. WINDS LOOK TO BE LIGHT...THOUGH WE COULD SEE SOME
AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS TO 20 MPH AT TIMES. WITH FUELS REPORTED AS
GREEN OUT WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD
BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB




000
FXUS63 KUNR 150842
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
242 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO THE WEST WILL COMBINE WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO PRODUCE SUNNY SKIES OVER THE AREA TODAY. SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...DOWNSLOPING
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK NOCTURNAL LLJ WILL KEEP
LOW TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS.
TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S AS THE THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE INCREASES AND THE RIDGE SHIFTS
EASTWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS FOR MID WEEK...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS THE CWA
ON THURSDAY. WITH THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE AREA...WILL SEE THE WARMEST
TEMPS OF THE WEEK. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY
EVENING OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS. UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST AND BREAK DOWN AS AN UPPER TROF SWINGS
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH INCREASING
PACIFIC MOISTURE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. WESTERN RIDGE THEN
REFORMS AND BUILDS AGAIN ON SUNDAY...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15







000
FXUS63 KUNR 150842
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
242 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO THE WEST WILL COMBINE WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO PRODUCE SUNNY SKIES OVER THE AREA TODAY. SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...DOWNSLOPING
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK NOCTURNAL LLJ WILL KEEP
LOW TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS.
TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S AS THE THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE INCREASES AND THE RIDGE SHIFTS
EASTWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS FOR MID WEEK...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS THE CWA
ON THURSDAY. WITH THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE AREA...WILL SEE THE WARMEST
TEMPS OF THE WEEK. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY
EVENING OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS. UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST AND BREAK DOWN AS AN UPPER TROF SWINGS
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH INCREASING
PACIFIC MOISTURE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. WESTERN RIDGE THEN
REFORMS AND BUILDS AGAIN ON SUNDAY...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15







000
FXUS63 KUNR 150842
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
242 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO THE WEST WILL COMBINE WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO PRODUCE SUNNY SKIES OVER THE AREA TODAY. SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...DOWNSLOPING
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK NOCTURNAL LLJ WILL KEEP
LOW TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS.
TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S AS THE THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE INCREASES AND THE RIDGE SHIFTS
EASTWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS FOR MID WEEK...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS THE CWA
ON THURSDAY. WITH THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE AREA...WILL SEE THE WARMEST
TEMPS OF THE WEEK. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY
EVENING OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS. UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST AND BREAK DOWN AS AN UPPER TROF SWINGS
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH INCREASING
PACIFIC MOISTURE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. WESTERN RIDGE THEN
REFORMS AND BUILDS AGAIN ON SUNDAY...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15







000
FXUS63 KUNR 150842
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
242 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO THE WEST WILL COMBINE WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO PRODUCE SUNNY SKIES OVER THE AREA TODAY. SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...DOWNSLOPING
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK NOCTURNAL LLJ WILL KEEP
LOW TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS.
TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S AS THE THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE INCREASES AND THE RIDGE SHIFTS
EASTWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS FOR MID WEEK...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS THE CWA
ON THURSDAY. WITH THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE AREA...WILL SEE THE WARMEST
TEMPS OF THE WEEK. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY
EVENING OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS. UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST AND BREAK DOWN AS AN UPPER TROF SWINGS
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH INCREASING
PACIFIC MOISTURE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. WESTERN RIDGE THEN
REFORMS AND BUILDS AGAIN ON SUNDAY...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15







000
FXUS65 KRIW 150820
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
220 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THE LAST IN A SERIES OF GLANCES FROM DRY SHORTWAVES DIVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
EXITING MAIN TROUGH AND ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE APPROACHING HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE NOW ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST IS TAKING PLACE. EAST
WINDS BEHIND THE ASCT BACKDOOR DRY COOL FRONT HAVE ALREADY
DIMINISHED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY AS FAR
SOUTHWEST AS FARSON AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING. TODAY AND TUESDAY
WILL FEATURE RATHER BENIGN PLEASANT FALL WEATHER AS THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MAKES ITS WAY TO THE ROCKIES. AFTER ALL...WE
CANNOT COMPLETELY DISMISS FALL BEFORE WINTER ARRIVES. TEMPS WILL
STEADILY RISE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS WAY UP IN THE MID 80S
AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY THEN AND WELL UP
INTO THE 70S WEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A RESULTING SURFACE LEE SIDE TROUGH
AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH APPROACHES AND THE RIDGE FLATTENS
RESULTING IN INCREASED WINDS. SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL MOVE IN WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WEDNESDAY ALONG
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY...JUST ENOUGH FOR SOME WEAK SPOTTY
CONVECTION OUT WEST.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
EVEN MORE SPLITTING IN THE UPCOMING TROUGH SHOWING UP IN THE
MODELS TONIGHT. SO MUCH SO...THAT IT`S QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH
MOISTURE AND FORCING WE ACTUALLY GET ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH
FROM THIS SYSTEM. WE`LL PROBABLY GET THE BEST SUPPORT IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH WITH SOME SUPPORT IN THE FAR WEST AND
NORTH FROM THE DEFORMATION AND FRONTAL ZONE AS IT MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WE END UP WITH THE A
LITTLE SUPPORT IN THE SOUTHWEST FROM THE NRN END OF THE SPLITTING
TROUGH TO OUR SW AND A LITTLE ACROSS THE NORTH FROM THE NORTHERN
PIECE OF THE TROUGH...OR WHAT`S LEFT OF IT. STILL MAY BE ENOUGH
DAYTIME HEATING AND FRONTAL FORCING FOR SOME LATE DAY
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST WITH THIS TROUGH BUT HARD TO GET TOO
EXCITED ANYMORE WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SURGE NWD. MINIMAL
ODILE MOISTURE WILL LIKELY GET ENTRAINED. MOST OF IT WILL STAY TO
THE SOUTH. OTHERWISE...RIDGE MOVES BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND ALBEIT
WITH SURFACE HIGH NEARBY TO KEEP US FROM FULLY MIXING AND LIKELY
NOT REACHING OUR MAX POTENTIAL BASED ON H7 TEMPS. HUGE DISCREPANCIES
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE ECMWF TAKES THE SRN PIECE OF OUR
SPLITTING TROUGH AND LIFTS IT NE ACROSS US LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT WELL SOUTH WITH A WARM RIDGE OVERHEAD. A
FEW GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORT THE OP ECMWF BUT MOST DO NOT. THE
12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORTED THE OP GFS RIDGE. NEIGHBORS
TO THE WEST AND SOUTH HAVE SOME POPS TO HEDGE TOWARDS THE REMNANT
UPPER GETTING CLOSE SO WILL HAVE JUST SOME ISOLATED POPS IN THE
FAR SOUTH LATE SUNDAY AND IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS OF THE FAR
WEST AND SOUTH MONDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS
OR STORMS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE FAR SOUTHERN WYOMING BORDER FROM 21Z
MON UNTIL 02Z TUE. THE ACTIVITY WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE KRKS AIRPORT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A BUILDING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS PRESENT WITH LITTLE WIND EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THE CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH APPROACHES.
WINDS WILL INCREASE BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY AS WELL.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON










000
FXUS65 KRIW 150820
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
220 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THE LAST IN A SERIES OF GLANCES FROM DRY SHORTWAVES DIVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
EXITING MAIN TROUGH AND ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE APPROACHING HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE NOW ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST IS TAKING PLACE. EAST
WINDS BEHIND THE ASCT BACKDOOR DRY COOL FRONT HAVE ALREADY
DIMINISHED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY AS FAR
SOUTHWEST AS FARSON AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING. TODAY AND TUESDAY
WILL FEATURE RATHER BENIGN PLEASANT FALL WEATHER AS THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MAKES ITS WAY TO THE ROCKIES. AFTER ALL...WE
CANNOT COMPLETELY DISMISS FALL BEFORE WINTER ARRIVES. TEMPS WILL
STEADILY RISE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS WAY UP IN THE MID 80S
AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY THEN AND WELL UP
INTO THE 70S WEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A RESULTING SURFACE LEE SIDE TROUGH
AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH APPROACHES AND THE RIDGE FLATTENS
RESULTING IN INCREASED WINDS. SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL MOVE IN WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WEDNESDAY ALONG
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY...JUST ENOUGH FOR SOME WEAK SPOTTY
CONVECTION OUT WEST.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
EVEN MORE SPLITTING IN THE UPCOMING TROUGH SHOWING UP IN THE
MODELS TONIGHT. SO MUCH SO...THAT IT`S QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH
MOISTURE AND FORCING WE ACTUALLY GET ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH
FROM THIS SYSTEM. WE`LL PROBABLY GET THE BEST SUPPORT IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH WITH SOME SUPPORT IN THE FAR WEST AND
NORTH FROM THE DEFORMATION AND FRONTAL ZONE AS IT MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WE END UP WITH THE A
LITTLE SUPPORT IN THE SOUTHWEST FROM THE NRN END OF THE SPLITTING
TROUGH TO OUR SW AND A LITTLE ACROSS THE NORTH FROM THE NORTHERN
PIECE OF THE TROUGH...OR WHAT`S LEFT OF IT. STILL MAY BE ENOUGH
DAYTIME HEATING AND FRONTAL FORCING FOR SOME LATE DAY
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST WITH THIS TROUGH BUT HARD TO GET TOO
EXCITED ANYMORE WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SURGE NWD. MINIMAL
ODILE MOISTURE WILL LIKELY GET ENTRAINED. MOST OF IT WILL STAY TO
THE SOUTH. OTHERWISE...RIDGE MOVES BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND ALBEIT
WITH SURFACE HIGH NEARBY TO KEEP US FROM FULLY MIXING AND LIKELY
NOT REACHING OUR MAX POTENTIAL BASED ON H7 TEMPS. HUGE DISCREPANCIES
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE ECMWF TAKES THE SRN PIECE OF OUR
SPLITTING TROUGH AND LIFTS IT NE ACROSS US LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT WELL SOUTH WITH A WARM RIDGE OVERHEAD. A
FEW GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORT THE OP ECMWF BUT MOST DO NOT. THE
12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORTED THE OP GFS RIDGE. NEIGHBORS
TO THE WEST AND SOUTH HAVE SOME POPS TO HEDGE TOWARDS THE REMNANT
UPPER GETTING CLOSE SO WILL HAVE JUST SOME ISOLATED POPS IN THE
FAR SOUTH LATE SUNDAY AND IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS OF THE FAR
WEST AND SOUTH MONDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS
OR STORMS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE FAR SOUTHERN WYOMING BORDER FROM 21Z
MON UNTIL 02Z TUE. THE ACTIVITY WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE KRKS AIRPORT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A BUILDING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS PRESENT WITH LITTLE WIND EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THE CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH APPROACHES.
WINDS WILL INCREASE BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY AS WELL.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON










000
FXUS65 KRIW 150820
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
220 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THE LAST IN A SERIES OF GLANCES FROM DRY SHORTWAVES DIVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
EXITING MAIN TROUGH AND ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE APPROACHING HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE NOW ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST IS TAKING PLACE. EAST
WINDS BEHIND THE ASCT BACKDOOR DRY COOL FRONT HAVE ALREADY
DIMINISHED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY AS FAR
SOUTHWEST AS FARSON AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING. TODAY AND TUESDAY
WILL FEATURE RATHER BENIGN PLEASANT FALL WEATHER AS THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MAKES ITS WAY TO THE ROCKIES. AFTER ALL...WE
CANNOT COMPLETELY DISMISS FALL BEFORE WINTER ARRIVES. TEMPS WILL
STEADILY RISE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS WAY UP IN THE MID 80S
AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY THEN AND WELL UP
INTO THE 70S WEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A RESULTING SURFACE LEE SIDE TROUGH
AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH APPROACHES AND THE RIDGE FLATTENS
RESULTING IN INCREASED WINDS. SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL MOVE IN WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WEDNESDAY ALONG
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY...JUST ENOUGH FOR SOME WEAK SPOTTY
CONVECTION OUT WEST.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
EVEN MORE SPLITTING IN THE UPCOMING TROUGH SHOWING UP IN THE
MODELS TONIGHT. SO MUCH SO...THAT IT`S QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH
MOISTURE AND FORCING WE ACTUALLY GET ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH
FROM THIS SYSTEM. WE`LL PROBABLY GET THE BEST SUPPORT IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH WITH SOME SUPPORT IN THE FAR WEST AND
NORTH FROM THE DEFORMATION AND FRONTAL ZONE AS IT MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WE END UP WITH THE A
LITTLE SUPPORT IN THE SOUTHWEST FROM THE NRN END OF THE SPLITTING
TROUGH TO OUR SW AND A LITTLE ACROSS THE NORTH FROM THE NORTHERN
PIECE OF THE TROUGH...OR WHAT`S LEFT OF IT. STILL MAY BE ENOUGH
DAYTIME HEATING AND FRONTAL FORCING FOR SOME LATE DAY
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST WITH THIS TROUGH BUT HARD TO GET TOO
EXCITED ANYMORE WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SURGE NWD. MINIMAL
ODILE MOISTURE WILL LIKELY GET ENTRAINED. MOST OF IT WILL STAY TO
THE SOUTH. OTHERWISE...RIDGE MOVES BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND ALBEIT
WITH SURFACE HIGH NEARBY TO KEEP US FROM FULLY MIXING AND LIKELY
NOT REACHING OUR MAX POTENTIAL BASED ON H7 TEMPS. HUGE DISCREPANCIES
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE ECMWF TAKES THE SRN PIECE OF OUR
SPLITTING TROUGH AND LIFTS IT NE ACROSS US LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT WELL SOUTH WITH A WARM RIDGE OVERHEAD. A
FEW GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORT THE OP ECMWF BUT MOST DO NOT. THE
12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORTED THE OP GFS RIDGE. NEIGHBORS
TO THE WEST AND SOUTH HAVE SOME POPS TO HEDGE TOWARDS THE REMNANT
UPPER GETTING CLOSE SO WILL HAVE JUST SOME ISOLATED POPS IN THE
FAR SOUTH LATE SUNDAY AND IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS OF THE FAR
WEST AND SOUTH MONDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS
OR STORMS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE FAR SOUTHERN WYOMING BORDER FROM 21Z
MON UNTIL 02Z TUE. THE ACTIVITY WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE KRKS AIRPORT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A BUILDING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS PRESENT WITH LITTLE WIND EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THE CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH APPROACHES.
WINDS WILL INCREASE BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY AS WELL.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON










000
FXUS65 KRIW 150820
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
220 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THE LAST IN A SERIES OF GLANCES FROM DRY SHORTWAVES DIVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
EXITING MAIN TROUGH AND ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE APPROACHING HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE NOW ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST IS TAKING PLACE. EAST
WINDS BEHIND THE ASCT BACKDOOR DRY COOL FRONT HAVE ALREADY
DIMINISHED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY AS FAR
SOUTHWEST AS FARSON AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING. TODAY AND TUESDAY
WILL FEATURE RATHER BENIGN PLEASANT FALL WEATHER AS THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MAKES ITS WAY TO THE ROCKIES. AFTER ALL...WE
CANNOT COMPLETELY DISMISS FALL BEFORE WINTER ARRIVES. TEMPS WILL
STEADILY RISE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS WAY UP IN THE MID 80S
AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY THEN AND WELL UP
INTO THE 70S WEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A RESULTING SURFACE LEE SIDE TROUGH
AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH APPROACHES AND THE RIDGE FLATTENS
RESULTING IN INCREASED WINDS. SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL MOVE IN WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WEDNESDAY ALONG
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY...JUST ENOUGH FOR SOME WEAK SPOTTY
CONVECTION OUT WEST.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
EVEN MORE SPLITTING IN THE UPCOMING TROUGH SHOWING UP IN THE
MODELS TONIGHT. SO MUCH SO...THAT IT`S QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH
MOISTURE AND FORCING WE ACTUALLY GET ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH
FROM THIS SYSTEM. WE`LL PROBABLY GET THE BEST SUPPORT IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH WITH SOME SUPPORT IN THE FAR WEST AND
NORTH FROM THE DEFORMATION AND FRONTAL ZONE AS IT MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WE END UP WITH THE A
LITTLE SUPPORT IN THE SOUTHWEST FROM THE NRN END OF THE SPLITTING
TROUGH TO OUR SW AND A LITTLE ACROSS THE NORTH FROM THE NORTHERN
PIECE OF THE TROUGH...OR WHAT`S LEFT OF IT. STILL MAY BE ENOUGH
DAYTIME HEATING AND FRONTAL FORCING FOR SOME LATE DAY
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST WITH THIS TROUGH BUT HARD TO GET TOO
EXCITED ANYMORE WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SURGE NWD. MINIMAL
ODILE MOISTURE WILL LIKELY GET ENTRAINED. MOST OF IT WILL STAY TO
THE SOUTH. OTHERWISE...RIDGE MOVES BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND ALBEIT
WITH SURFACE HIGH NEARBY TO KEEP US FROM FULLY MIXING AND LIKELY
NOT REACHING OUR MAX POTENTIAL BASED ON H7 TEMPS. HUGE DISCREPANCIES
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE ECMWF TAKES THE SRN PIECE OF OUR
SPLITTING TROUGH AND LIFTS IT NE ACROSS US LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT WELL SOUTH WITH A WARM RIDGE OVERHEAD. A
FEW GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORT THE OP ECMWF BUT MOST DO NOT. THE
12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORTED THE OP GFS RIDGE. NEIGHBORS
TO THE WEST AND SOUTH HAVE SOME POPS TO HEDGE TOWARDS THE REMNANT
UPPER GETTING CLOSE SO WILL HAVE JUST SOME ISOLATED POPS IN THE
FAR SOUTH LATE SUNDAY AND IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS OF THE FAR
WEST AND SOUTH MONDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS
OR STORMS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE FAR SOUTHERN WYOMING BORDER FROM 21Z
MON UNTIL 02Z TUE. THE ACTIVITY WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE KRKS AIRPORT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A BUILDING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS PRESENT WITH LITTLE WIND EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THE CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH APPROACHES.
WINDS WILL INCREASE BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY AS WELL.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON










000
FXUS65 KCYS 150520
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1120 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

EVENING REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT
HAD PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. DEW
POINTS ROSE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES AND WINDS SHIFTED TO NORTHEASTERLY
IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA. MOST OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AMPLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. IN A RECENT FORECAST UPDATE...EXPANDED THE LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FURTHER WEST TOWARD THE LARAMIE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

A FEW SHOWERS ALONG WITH A WEAK TSTM OR TWO MOVING EAST NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EVENING
WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF A MINOR DISTURBANCE.

MAIN DIFFICULTY WILL BE HOW MUCH LOW CLOUDINESS REDEVELOPS OVER
THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL SAG
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
BUT SOME FOG SHOULD OCCUR LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. 850MB
RHS BECOME VERY HIGH AND SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY EXPANSIVE AREA OF LOW
CLOUDS MAINLY OVER THE PANHANDLE BY LATE TONIGHT.

A MILD DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE
PLAINS WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE. DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD
GRADUALLY ACROSS THE CWA LATER MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
SO EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THEN. WARMER AS WELL TUESDAY AS THE
COOL SFC AIRMASS CONTINUES RETREATING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE
STILL LOOKS TO BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE MIDWEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE WARMEST GUIDANCE AND LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW GUIDANCE CONSENSUS AS A DRY ATMOSPHERE AND LIGHT WINDS
ALLOW FOR LARGER DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES. MAIN CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TODAY`S MODEL
SOLUTION TREND IS DRIER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE MODELS SHOWED
YESTERDAY...WHICH IS THE CASE FOR BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS.
TYPICALLY THE MODELS OVERDO THE STRENGTH OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
CRASHING INTO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE MODELS BACK OFF ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER IN THE NEXT
SEVERAL RUNS FOR LATE THIS WEEK. EITHER WAY EXPECTING SOME
COOLING FROM A COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK...THE QUESTION IS HOW
MUCH COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE WILL
FAVOR LOW CLOUD AND PATCHY FOG FORMATION EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. HRRR/SREF/NAM MODEL GUIDANCE DEVELOPS
MVFR TO LIFR CIGS AFTER 06Z...WITH MVFR VSBYS AT BFF AND CYS AND
IFR AT SNY. SNY MAY MAINTAIN THE LOW CIGS/VSBYS UNTIL 20Z...WITH
CYS...BFF AND AIA IMPROVING TO VFR FROM 16Z TO 18Z MONDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AT LAR AND RWL
WHERE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

NO CONCERNS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. A MINOR
PUSH OF COOLER AIR WILL ALLOW FOR A MILD DAY OVER THE PLAINS
MONDAY THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN TUESDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAMSKI
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...LIEBL
AVIATION...JAMSKI
FIRE WEATHER...RE








000
FXUS65 KCYS 150520
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1120 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

EVENING REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT
HAD PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. DEW
POINTS ROSE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES AND WINDS SHIFTED TO NORTHEASTERLY
IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA. MOST OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AMPLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. IN A RECENT FORECAST UPDATE...EXPANDED THE LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FURTHER WEST TOWARD THE LARAMIE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

A FEW SHOWERS ALONG WITH A WEAK TSTM OR TWO MOVING EAST NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EVENING
WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF A MINOR DISTURBANCE.

MAIN DIFFICULTY WILL BE HOW MUCH LOW CLOUDINESS REDEVELOPS OVER
THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL SAG
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
BUT SOME FOG SHOULD OCCUR LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. 850MB
RHS BECOME VERY HIGH AND SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY EXPANSIVE AREA OF LOW
CLOUDS MAINLY OVER THE PANHANDLE BY LATE TONIGHT.

A MILD DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE
PLAINS WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE. DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD
GRADUALLY ACROSS THE CWA LATER MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
SO EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THEN. WARMER AS WELL TUESDAY AS THE
COOL SFC AIRMASS CONTINUES RETREATING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE
STILL LOOKS TO BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE MIDWEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE WARMEST GUIDANCE AND LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW GUIDANCE CONSENSUS AS A DRY ATMOSPHERE AND LIGHT WINDS
ALLOW FOR LARGER DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES. MAIN CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TODAY`S MODEL
SOLUTION TREND IS DRIER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE MODELS SHOWED
YESTERDAY...WHICH IS THE CASE FOR BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS.
TYPICALLY THE MODELS OVERDO THE STRENGTH OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
CRASHING INTO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE MODELS BACK OFF ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER IN THE NEXT
SEVERAL RUNS FOR LATE THIS WEEK. EITHER WAY EXPECTING SOME
COOLING FROM A COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK...THE QUESTION IS HOW
MUCH COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE WILL
FAVOR LOW CLOUD AND PATCHY FOG FORMATION EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. HRRR/SREF/NAM MODEL GUIDANCE DEVELOPS
MVFR TO LIFR CIGS AFTER 06Z...WITH MVFR VSBYS AT BFF AND CYS AND
IFR AT SNY. SNY MAY MAINTAIN THE LOW CIGS/VSBYS UNTIL 20Z...WITH
CYS...BFF AND AIA IMPROVING TO VFR FROM 16Z TO 18Z MONDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AT LAR AND RWL
WHERE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

NO CONCERNS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. A MINOR
PUSH OF COOLER AIR WILL ALLOW FOR A MILD DAY OVER THE PLAINS
MONDAY THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN TUESDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAMSKI
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...LIEBL
AVIATION...JAMSKI
FIRE WEATHER...RE








000
FXUS65 KCYS 150520
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1120 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

EVENING REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT
HAD PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. DEW
POINTS ROSE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES AND WINDS SHIFTED TO NORTHEASTERLY
IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA. MOST OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AMPLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. IN A RECENT FORECAST UPDATE...EXPANDED THE LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FURTHER WEST TOWARD THE LARAMIE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

A FEW SHOWERS ALONG WITH A WEAK TSTM OR TWO MOVING EAST NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EVENING
WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF A MINOR DISTURBANCE.

MAIN DIFFICULTY WILL BE HOW MUCH LOW CLOUDINESS REDEVELOPS OVER
THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL SAG
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
BUT SOME FOG SHOULD OCCUR LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. 850MB
RHS BECOME VERY HIGH AND SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY EXPANSIVE AREA OF LOW
CLOUDS MAINLY OVER THE PANHANDLE BY LATE TONIGHT.

A MILD DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE
PLAINS WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE. DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD
GRADUALLY ACROSS THE CWA LATER MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
SO EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THEN. WARMER AS WELL TUESDAY AS THE
COOL SFC AIRMASS CONTINUES RETREATING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE
STILL LOOKS TO BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE MIDWEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE WARMEST GUIDANCE AND LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW GUIDANCE CONSENSUS AS A DRY ATMOSPHERE AND LIGHT WINDS
ALLOW FOR LARGER DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES. MAIN CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TODAY`S MODEL
SOLUTION TREND IS DRIER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE MODELS SHOWED
YESTERDAY...WHICH IS THE CASE FOR BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS.
TYPICALLY THE MODELS OVERDO THE STRENGTH OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
CRASHING INTO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE MODELS BACK OFF ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER IN THE NEXT
SEVERAL RUNS FOR LATE THIS WEEK. EITHER WAY EXPECTING SOME
COOLING FROM A COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK...THE QUESTION IS HOW
MUCH COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE WILL
FAVOR LOW CLOUD AND PATCHY FOG FORMATION EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. HRRR/SREF/NAM MODEL GUIDANCE DEVELOPS
MVFR TO LIFR CIGS AFTER 06Z...WITH MVFR VSBYS AT BFF AND CYS AND
IFR AT SNY. SNY MAY MAINTAIN THE LOW CIGS/VSBYS UNTIL 20Z...WITH
CYS...BFF AND AIA IMPROVING TO VFR FROM 16Z TO 18Z MONDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AT LAR AND RWL
WHERE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

NO CONCERNS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. A MINOR
PUSH OF COOLER AIR WILL ALLOW FOR A MILD DAY OVER THE PLAINS
MONDAY THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN TUESDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAMSKI
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...LIEBL
AVIATION...JAMSKI
FIRE WEATHER...RE








000
FXUS65 KCYS 150520
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1120 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

EVENING REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT
HAD PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. DEW
POINTS ROSE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES AND WINDS SHIFTED TO NORTHEASTERLY
IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA. MOST OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AMPLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. IN A RECENT FORECAST UPDATE...EXPANDED THE LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FURTHER WEST TOWARD THE LARAMIE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

A FEW SHOWERS ALONG WITH A WEAK TSTM OR TWO MOVING EAST NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EVENING
WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF A MINOR DISTURBANCE.

MAIN DIFFICULTY WILL BE HOW MUCH LOW CLOUDINESS REDEVELOPS OVER
THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL SAG
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
BUT SOME FOG SHOULD OCCUR LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. 850MB
RHS BECOME VERY HIGH AND SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY EXPANSIVE AREA OF LOW
CLOUDS MAINLY OVER THE PANHANDLE BY LATE TONIGHT.

A MILD DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE
PLAINS WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE. DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD
GRADUALLY ACROSS THE CWA LATER MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
SO EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THEN. WARMER AS WELL TUESDAY AS THE
COOL SFC AIRMASS CONTINUES RETREATING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE
STILL LOOKS TO BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE MIDWEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE WARMEST GUIDANCE AND LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW GUIDANCE CONSENSUS AS A DRY ATMOSPHERE AND LIGHT WINDS
ALLOW FOR LARGER DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES. MAIN CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TODAY`S MODEL
SOLUTION TREND IS DRIER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE MODELS SHOWED
YESTERDAY...WHICH IS THE CASE FOR BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS.
TYPICALLY THE MODELS OVERDO THE STRENGTH OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
CRASHING INTO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE MODELS BACK OFF ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER IN THE NEXT
SEVERAL RUNS FOR LATE THIS WEEK. EITHER WAY EXPECTING SOME
COOLING FROM A COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK...THE QUESTION IS HOW
MUCH COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE WILL
FAVOR LOW CLOUD AND PATCHY FOG FORMATION EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. HRRR/SREF/NAM MODEL GUIDANCE DEVELOPS
MVFR TO LIFR CIGS AFTER 06Z...WITH MVFR VSBYS AT BFF AND CYS AND
IFR AT SNY. SNY MAY MAINTAIN THE LOW CIGS/VSBYS UNTIL 20Z...WITH
CYS...BFF AND AIA IMPROVING TO VFR FROM 16Z TO 18Z MONDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AT LAR AND RWL
WHERE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

NO CONCERNS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. A MINOR
PUSH OF COOLER AIR WILL ALLOW FOR A MILD DAY OVER THE PLAINS
MONDAY THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN TUESDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAMSKI
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...LIEBL
AVIATION...JAMSKI
FIRE WEATHER...RE








000
FXUS65 KRIW 150515
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1115 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY (ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT)

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS.  CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
DRY WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

AT MANY ISSUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER AND BRING LARGELY WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB
INTO THE 80S FOR THE BASIN LOCATIONS EAST OF THE DIVIDE FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE A BIT FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT A BIT FURTHER TO THE EAST AND A
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WITH A BIT MORE MOISTURE
ARRIVING THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE DIVIDE. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE FAIRLY
SPARSE AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
MEANWHILE...EXPECT THE DRY AND WARM WEATHER TO CONTINUE EAST OF THE
DIVIDE.

A COMBINATION OF THE RIDGE SHIFTING FURTHER EAST AND FLATTENING AND
INCREASING MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM HURRICANE ODILE MAY
INCREASE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON SPREADING THE MOISTURE FURTHER EASTWARD BUT MOISTURE
FROM TROPICAL SYSTEMS CAN BE REALLY FICKLE SO WE MADE FEW CHANGES
FOR THURSDAY. WITH A FRONT AND TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY SHOULD HAVE THE BEST COVERAGE OF POSSIBLE
CONVECTION. CONTINUITY LOOKED REASONABLE SO AGAIN WE MADE FEW
CHANGES AT THIS POINT. WITH MORE CLOUD COVER...EXPECT A COOLING
TREND FOR FRIDAY AS WELL. AS FOR NEXT WEEKEND...THERE CONTINUES TO
BE A LOT OF DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS SO FOR NOW ONCE AGAIN...FEW
CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS
OR STORMS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE FAR SOUTHERN WYOMING BORDER FROM 21Z
MON UNTIL 02Z TUE. THE ACTIVITY WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE KRKS AIRPORT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A BUILDING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BRINGING INCREASED
RELATIVE HUMIDITY. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS PRESENT WITH LITTLE WIND EXPECTED.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...C.BAKER
LONG TERM...HATTINGS
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...C.BAKER/LIPSON

















000
FXUS65 KRIW 150515
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1115 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY (ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT)

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS.  CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
DRY WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

AT MANY ISSUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER AND BRING LARGELY WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB
INTO THE 80S FOR THE BASIN LOCATIONS EAST OF THE DIVIDE FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE A BIT FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT A BIT FURTHER TO THE EAST AND A
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WITH A BIT MORE MOISTURE
ARRIVING THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE DIVIDE. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE FAIRLY
SPARSE AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
MEANWHILE...EXPECT THE DRY AND WARM WEATHER TO CONTINUE EAST OF THE
DIVIDE.

A COMBINATION OF THE RIDGE SHIFTING FURTHER EAST AND FLATTENING AND
INCREASING MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM HURRICANE ODILE MAY
INCREASE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON SPREADING THE MOISTURE FURTHER EASTWARD BUT MOISTURE
FROM TROPICAL SYSTEMS CAN BE REALLY FICKLE SO WE MADE FEW CHANGES
FOR THURSDAY. WITH A FRONT AND TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY SHOULD HAVE THE BEST COVERAGE OF POSSIBLE
CONVECTION. CONTINUITY LOOKED REASONABLE SO AGAIN WE MADE FEW
CHANGES AT THIS POINT. WITH MORE CLOUD COVER...EXPECT A COOLING
TREND FOR FRIDAY AS WELL. AS FOR NEXT WEEKEND...THERE CONTINUES TO
BE A LOT OF DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS SO FOR NOW ONCE AGAIN...FEW
CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS
OR STORMS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE FAR SOUTHERN WYOMING BORDER FROM 21Z
MON UNTIL 02Z TUE. THE ACTIVITY WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE KRKS AIRPORT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A BUILDING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BRINGING INCREASED
RELATIVE HUMIDITY. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS PRESENT WITH LITTLE WIND EXPECTED.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...C.BAKER
LONG TERM...HATTINGS
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...C.BAKER/LIPSON


















000
FXUS63 KUNR 150506
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1106 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 142 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

CENTRAL CANADIAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST
IN THE PERIOD...WITH THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. ONE LAST ASSOCIATED SOUTHERN PERIPHERY UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY
SUPPORTING A SHRA ACROSS THE FAR SE. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
IN THE PERIOD...WITH MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON TAP FOR MONDAY.

TONIGHT...CLOUD DECK FROM WEAK POS THETA-E ADV UNDER A REMNANT
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...WILL CLEAR WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AS THE
UPPER TROUGH SHIFT EAST. WEAK SFC TROUGH ADVECTING THROUGH THE
REGION MAY SUPPORT A SHOWER AROUND TRIPP COUNTY THIS EVENING. NOT
TOO EXCITED ABOUT RAIN CHANCES GIVEN DISMAL MOISTURE PROFILES AND
GENERAL WEAK FORCING. OPTED FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. CLEARING WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND WEAK SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT WITH FROST POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN WESTERN HALF.

MONDAY...SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT SE OF THE AREA WITH LEE SIDE
TROUGHING SUPPORTING INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. WARMER
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S...WARMEST
OVER NE WY. WARMER NIGHT ON TRACK MONDAY. ONGOING LL PRESSURE FALLS
WILL SUPPORT A WEAK NOCTURNAL LLJ WITH TERRAIN INDUCED DOWNSLOPING
EXPECTED IN USUAL AREAS AT TIMES IN ADDITION TO NE WY. THIS SHOULD
HOLD TEMPS UP AT MANY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 142 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH MID WEEK...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND
NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. UPPER RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE
CWA ON THURSDAY /WITH THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE AREA/ WILL SEE THE
WARMEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK ON THURSDAY. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ON THURSDAY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE BLACK
HILLS...GIVEN WESTERN RIDGE POSITION. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO
SLIDE EAST AND BREAK DOWN AS AN UPPER TROF SWINGS THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH INCREASING PACIFIC
MOISTURE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. WESTERN RIDGE THEN REFORMS AND
BUILDS AGAIN ON SUNDAY...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...CARPENTER






000
FXUS63 KUNR 150506
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1106 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 142 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

CENTRAL CANADIAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST
IN THE PERIOD...WITH THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. ONE LAST ASSOCIATED SOUTHERN PERIPHERY UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY
SUPPORTING A SHRA ACROSS THE FAR SE. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
IN THE PERIOD...WITH MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON TAP FOR MONDAY.

TONIGHT...CLOUD DECK FROM WEAK POS THETA-E ADV UNDER A REMNANT
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...WILL CLEAR WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AS THE
UPPER TROUGH SHIFT EAST. WEAK SFC TROUGH ADVECTING THROUGH THE
REGION MAY SUPPORT A SHOWER AROUND TRIPP COUNTY THIS EVENING. NOT
TOO EXCITED ABOUT RAIN CHANCES GIVEN DISMAL MOISTURE PROFILES AND
GENERAL WEAK FORCING. OPTED FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. CLEARING WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND WEAK SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT WITH FROST POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN WESTERN HALF.

MONDAY...SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT SE OF THE AREA WITH LEE SIDE
TROUGHING SUPPORTING INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. WARMER
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S...WARMEST
OVER NE WY. WARMER NIGHT ON TRACK MONDAY. ONGOING LL PRESSURE FALLS
WILL SUPPORT A WEAK NOCTURNAL LLJ WITH TERRAIN INDUCED DOWNSLOPING
EXPECTED IN USUAL AREAS AT TIMES IN ADDITION TO NE WY. THIS SHOULD
HOLD TEMPS UP AT MANY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 142 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH MID WEEK...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND
NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. UPPER RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE
CWA ON THURSDAY /WITH THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE AREA/ WILL SEE THE
WARMEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK ON THURSDAY. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ON THURSDAY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE BLACK
HILLS...GIVEN WESTERN RIDGE POSITION. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO
SLIDE EAST AND BREAK DOWN AS AN UPPER TROF SWINGS THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH INCREASING PACIFIC
MOISTURE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. WESTERN RIDGE THEN REFORMS AND
BUILDS AGAIN ON SUNDAY...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...CARPENTER







000
FXUS65 KRIW 150403
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
10 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS.  CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
DRY WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

AT MANY ISSUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER AND BRING LARGELY WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB
INTO THE 80S FOR THE BASIN LOCATIONS EAST OF THE DIVIDE FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE A BIT FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT A BIT FURTHER TO THE EAST AND A
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WITH A BIT MORE MOISTURE
ARRIVING THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE DIVIDE. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE FAIRLY
SPARSE AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
MEANWHILE...EXPECT THE DRY AND WARM WEATHER TO CONTINUE EAST OF THE
DIVIDE.

A COMBINATION OF THE RIDGE SHIFTING FURTHER EAST AND FLATTENING AND
INCREASING MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM HURRICANE ODILE MAY
INCREASE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON SPREADING THE MOISTURE FURTHER EASTWARD BUT MOISTURE
FROM TROPICAL SYSTEMS CAN BE REALLY FICKLE SO WE MADE FEW CHANGES
FOR THURSDAY. WITH A FRONT AND TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY SHOULD HAVE THE BEST COVERAGE OF POSSIBLE
CONVECTION. CONTINUITY LOOKED REASONABLE SO AGAIN WE MADE FEW
CHANGES AT THIS POINT. WITH MORE CLOUD COVER...EXPECT A COOLING
TREND FOR FRIDAY AS WELL. AS FOR NEXT WEEKEND...THERE CONTINUES TO
BE A LOT OF DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS SO FOR NOW ONCE AGAIN...FEW
CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. A GUSTY WEST WIND
WILL OCCUR AGAIN IN SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING UNTIL 02Z
MONDAY. THIS WOULD INCLUDE KRKS...KBPI...AND KPNA TERMINAL SITES.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH WITH NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
SPREADING THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A BUILDING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BRINGING INCREASED
RELATIVE HUMIDITY. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS PRESENT WITH LITTLE WIND EXPECTED.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...C.BAKER
LONG TERM...HATTINGS
AVIATION...C.BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...C.BAKER/LIPSON














000
FXUS65 KRIW 150403
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
10 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS.  CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
DRY WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

AT MANY ISSUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER AND BRING LARGELY WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB
INTO THE 80S FOR THE BASIN LOCATIONS EAST OF THE DIVIDE FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE A BIT FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT A BIT FURTHER TO THE EAST AND A
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WITH A BIT MORE MOISTURE
ARRIVING THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE DIVIDE. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE FAIRLY
SPARSE AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
MEANWHILE...EXPECT THE DRY AND WARM WEATHER TO CONTINUE EAST OF THE
DIVIDE.

A COMBINATION OF THE RIDGE SHIFTING FURTHER EAST AND FLATTENING AND
INCREASING MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM HURRICANE ODILE MAY
INCREASE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON SPREADING THE MOISTURE FURTHER EASTWARD BUT MOISTURE
FROM TROPICAL SYSTEMS CAN BE REALLY FICKLE SO WE MADE FEW CHANGES
FOR THURSDAY. WITH A FRONT AND TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY SHOULD HAVE THE BEST COVERAGE OF POSSIBLE
CONVECTION. CONTINUITY LOOKED REASONABLE SO AGAIN WE MADE FEW
CHANGES AT THIS POINT. WITH MORE CLOUD COVER...EXPECT A COOLING
TREND FOR FRIDAY AS WELL. AS FOR NEXT WEEKEND...THERE CONTINUES TO
BE A LOT OF DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS SO FOR NOW ONCE AGAIN...FEW
CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. A GUSTY WEST WIND
WILL OCCUR AGAIN IN SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING UNTIL 02Z
MONDAY. THIS WOULD INCLUDE KRKS...KBPI...AND KPNA TERMINAL SITES.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH WITH NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
SPREADING THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A BUILDING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BRINGING INCREASED
RELATIVE HUMIDITY. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS PRESENT WITH LITTLE WIND EXPECTED.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...C.BAKER
LONG TERM...HATTINGS
AVIATION...C.BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...C.BAKER/LIPSON















000
FXUS65 KCYS 150236 CCA
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
836 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

EVENING REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT
HAD PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. DEW
POINTS ROSE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES AND WINDS SHIFTED TO NORTHEASTERLY
IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA. MOST OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AMPLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. IN A RECENT FORECAST UPDATE...EXPANDED THE LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FURTHER WEST TOWARD THE LARAMIE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

A FEW SHOWERS ALONG WITH A WEAK TSTM OR TWO MOVING EAST NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EVENING
WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF A MINOR DISTURBANCE.

MAIN DIFFICULTY WILL BE HOW MUCH LOW CLOUDINESS REDEVELOPS OVER
THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL SAG
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
BUT SOME FOG SHOULD OCCUR LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. 850MB
RHS BECOME VERY HIGH AND SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY EXPANSIVE AREA OF LOW
CLOUDS MAINLY OVER THE PANHANDLE BY LATE TONIGHT.

A MILD DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE
PLAINS WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE. DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD
GRADUALLY ACROSS THE CWA LATER MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
SO EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THEN. WARMER AS WELL TUESDAY AS THE
COOL SFC AIRMASS CONTINUES RETREATING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE
STILL LOOKS TO BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE MIDWEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE WARMEST GUIDANCE AND LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW GUIDANCE CONSENSUS AS A DRY ATMOSPHERE AND LIGHT WINDS
ALLOW FOR LARGER DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES. MAIN CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TODAY`S MODEL
SOLUTION TREND IS DRIER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE MODELS SHOWED
YESTERDAY...WHICH IS THE CASE FOR BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS.
TYPICALLY THE MODELS OVERDO THE STRENGTH OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
CRASHING INTO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE MODELS BACK OFF ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER IN THE NEXT
SEVERAL RUNS FOR LATE THIS WEEK. EITHER WAY EXPECTING SOME
COOLING FROM A COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK...THE QUESTION IS HOW
MUCH COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 535 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

ISOLATED GUSTY -SHRA FROM LAR TO CYS WILL END BY 02Z. COLD FRONT
PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL STALL ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE
LATER THIS EVENING...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
EXPECT LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS FORECAST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BEGINNING AFTER 06Z
AND LASTING THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

NO CONCERNS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. A MINOR
PUSH OF COOLER AIR WILL ALLOW FOR A MILD DAY OVER THE PLAINS
MONDAY THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN TUESDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAMSKI
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...LIEBL
AVIATION...JAMSKI
FIRE WEATHER...RE










000
FXUS65 KCYS 150236 CCA
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
836 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

EVENING REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT
HAD PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. DEW
POINTS ROSE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES AND WINDS SHIFTED TO NORTHEASTERLY
IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA. MOST OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AMPLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. IN A RECENT FORECAST UPDATE...EXPANDED THE LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FURTHER WEST TOWARD THE LARAMIE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

A FEW SHOWERS ALONG WITH A WEAK TSTM OR TWO MOVING EAST NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EVENING
WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF A MINOR DISTURBANCE.

MAIN DIFFICULTY WILL BE HOW MUCH LOW CLOUDINESS REDEVELOPS OVER
THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL SAG
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
BUT SOME FOG SHOULD OCCUR LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. 850MB
RHS BECOME VERY HIGH AND SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY EXPANSIVE AREA OF LOW
CLOUDS MAINLY OVER THE PANHANDLE BY LATE TONIGHT.

A MILD DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE
PLAINS WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE. DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD
GRADUALLY ACROSS THE CWA LATER MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
SO EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THEN. WARMER AS WELL TUESDAY AS THE
COOL SFC AIRMASS CONTINUES RETREATING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE
STILL LOOKS TO BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE MIDWEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE WARMEST GUIDANCE AND LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW GUIDANCE CONSENSUS AS A DRY ATMOSPHERE AND LIGHT WINDS
ALLOW FOR LARGER DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES. MAIN CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TODAY`S MODEL
SOLUTION TREND IS DRIER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE MODELS SHOWED
YESTERDAY...WHICH IS THE CASE FOR BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS.
TYPICALLY THE MODELS OVERDO THE STRENGTH OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
CRASHING INTO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE MODELS BACK OFF ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER IN THE NEXT
SEVERAL RUNS FOR LATE THIS WEEK. EITHER WAY EXPECTING SOME
COOLING FROM A COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK...THE QUESTION IS HOW
MUCH COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 535 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

ISOLATED GUSTY -SHRA FROM LAR TO CYS WILL END BY 02Z. COLD FRONT
PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL STALL ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE
LATER THIS EVENING...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
EXPECT LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS FORECAST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BEGINNING AFTER 06Z
AND LASTING THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

NO CONCERNS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. A MINOR
PUSH OF COOLER AIR WILL ALLOW FOR A MILD DAY OVER THE PLAINS
MONDAY THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN TUESDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAMSKI
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...LIEBL
AVIATION...JAMSKI
FIRE WEATHER...RE










000
FXUS65 KCYS 150236 CCA
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
836 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

EVENING REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT
HAD PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. DEW
POINTS ROSE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES AND WINDS SHIFTED TO NORTHEASTERLY
IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA. MOST OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AMPLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. IN A RECENT FORECAST UPDATE...EXPANDED THE LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FURTHER WEST TOWARD THE LARAMIE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

A FEW SHOWERS ALONG WITH A WEAK TSTM OR TWO MOVING EAST NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EVENING
WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF A MINOR DISTURBANCE.

MAIN DIFFICULTY WILL BE HOW MUCH LOW CLOUDINESS REDEVELOPS OVER
THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL SAG
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
BUT SOME FOG SHOULD OCCUR LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. 850MB
RHS BECOME VERY HIGH AND SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY EXPANSIVE AREA OF LOW
CLOUDS MAINLY OVER THE PANHANDLE BY LATE TONIGHT.

A MILD DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE
PLAINS WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE. DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD
GRADUALLY ACROSS THE CWA LATER MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
SO EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THEN. WARMER AS WELL TUESDAY AS THE
COOL SFC AIRMASS CONTINUES RETREATING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE
STILL LOOKS TO BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE MIDWEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE WARMEST GUIDANCE AND LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW GUIDANCE CONSENSUS AS A DRY ATMOSPHERE AND LIGHT WINDS
ALLOW FOR LARGER DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES. MAIN CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TODAY`S MODEL
SOLUTION TREND IS DRIER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE MODELS SHOWED
YESTERDAY...WHICH IS THE CASE FOR BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS.
TYPICALLY THE MODELS OVERDO THE STRENGTH OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
CRASHING INTO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE MODELS BACK OFF ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER IN THE NEXT
SEVERAL RUNS FOR LATE THIS WEEK. EITHER WAY EXPECTING SOME
COOLING FROM A COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK...THE QUESTION IS HOW
MUCH COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 535 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

ISOLATED GUSTY -SHRA FROM LAR TO CYS WILL END BY 02Z. COLD FRONT
PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL STALL ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE
LATER THIS EVENING...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
EXPECT LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS FORECAST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BEGINNING AFTER 06Z
AND LASTING THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

NO CONCERNS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. A MINOR
PUSH OF COOLER AIR WILL ALLOW FOR A MILD DAY OVER THE PLAINS
MONDAY THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN TUESDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAMSKI
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...LIEBL
AVIATION...JAMSKI
FIRE WEATHER...RE










000
FXUS65 KCYS 150236 CCA
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
836 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

EVENING REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT
HAD PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. DEW
POINTS ROSE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES AND WINDS SHIFTED TO NORTHEASTERLY
IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA. MOST OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AMPLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. IN A RECENT FORECAST UPDATE...EXPANDED THE LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FURTHER WEST TOWARD THE LARAMIE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

A FEW SHOWERS ALONG WITH A WEAK TSTM OR TWO MOVING EAST NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EVENING
WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF A MINOR DISTURBANCE.

MAIN DIFFICULTY WILL BE HOW MUCH LOW CLOUDINESS REDEVELOPS OVER
THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL SAG
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
BUT SOME FOG SHOULD OCCUR LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. 850MB
RHS BECOME VERY HIGH AND SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY EXPANSIVE AREA OF LOW
CLOUDS MAINLY OVER THE PANHANDLE BY LATE TONIGHT.

A MILD DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE
PLAINS WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE. DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD
GRADUALLY ACROSS THE CWA LATER MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
SO EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THEN. WARMER AS WELL TUESDAY AS THE
COOL SFC AIRMASS CONTINUES RETREATING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE
STILL LOOKS TO BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE MIDWEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE WARMEST GUIDANCE AND LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW GUIDANCE CONSENSUS AS A DRY ATMOSPHERE AND LIGHT WINDS
ALLOW FOR LARGER DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES. MAIN CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TODAY`S MODEL
SOLUTION TREND IS DRIER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE MODELS SHOWED
YESTERDAY...WHICH IS THE CASE FOR BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS.
TYPICALLY THE MODELS OVERDO THE STRENGTH OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
CRASHING INTO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE MODELS BACK OFF ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER IN THE NEXT
SEVERAL RUNS FOR LATE THIS WEEK. EITHER WAY EXPECTING SOME
COOLING FROM A COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK...THE QUESTION IS HOW
MUCH COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 535 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

ISOLATED GUSTY -SHRA FROM LAR TO CYS WILL END BY 02Z. COLD FRONT
PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL STALL ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE
LATER THIS EVENING...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
EXPECT LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS FORECAST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BEGINNING AFTER 06Z
AND LASTING THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

NO CONCERNS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. A MINOR
PUSH OF COOLER AIR WILL ALLOW FOR A MILD DAY OVER THE PLAINS
MONDAY THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN TUESDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAMSKI
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...LIEBL
AVIATION...JAMSKI
FIRE WEATHER...RE










000
FXUS65 KCYS 150234
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
834 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

EVENING REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT
HAD PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. DEW
POINTS ROSE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES AND WINDS SHIFTED TO NORTHEASTERLY
IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA. MOST OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AMPLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. IN A RECENT FORECAST UPDATE...EXPANDED THE LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FURTHER WEST TOWARD THE I-25 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

A FEW SHOWERS ALONG WITH A WEAK TSTM OR TWO MOVING EAST NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EVENING
WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF A MINOR DISTURBANCE.

MAIN DIFFICULTY WILL BE HOW MUCH LOW CLOUDINESS REDEVELOPS OVER
THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL SAG
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
BUT SOME FOG SHOULD OCCUR LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. 850MB
RHS BECOME VERY HIGH AND SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY EXPANSIVE AREA OF LOW
CLOUDS MAINLY OVER THE PANHANDLE BY LATE TONIGHT.

A MILD DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE
PLAINS WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE. DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD
GRADUALLY ACROSS THE CWA LATER MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
SO EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THEN. WARMER AS WELL TUESDAY AS THE
COOL SFC AIRMASS CONTINUES RETREATING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE
STILL LOOKS TO BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE MIDWEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE WARMEST GUIDANCE AND LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW GUIDANCE CONSENSUS AS A DRY ATMOSPHERE AND LIGHT WINDS
ALLOW FOR LARGER DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES. MAIN CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TODAY`S MODEL
SOLUTION TREND IS DRIER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE MODELS SHOWED
YESTERDAY...WHICH IS THE CASE FOR BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS.
TYPICALLY THE MODELS OVERDO THE STRENGTH OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
CRASHING INTO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE MODELS BACK OFF ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER IN THE NEXT
SEVERAL RUNS FOR LATE THIS WEEK. EITHER WAY EXPECTING SOME
COOLING FROM A COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK...THE QUESTION IS HOW
MUCH COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 535 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

ISOLATED GUSTY -SHRA FROM LAR TO CYS WILL END BY 02Z. COLD FRONT
PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL STALL ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE
LATER THIS EVENING...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
EXPECT LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS FORECAST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BEGINNING AFTER 06Z
AND LASTING THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

NO CONCERNS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. A MINOR
PUSH OF COOLER AIR WILL ALLOW FOR A MILD DAY OVER THE PLAINS
MONDAY THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN TUESDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAMSKI
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...LIEBL
AVIATION...JAMSKI
FIRE WEATHER...RE








000
FXUS65 KCYS 150234
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
834 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

EVENING REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT
HAD PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. DEW
POINTS ROSE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES AND WINDS SHIFTED TO NORTHEASTERLY
IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA. MOST OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AMPLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. IN A RECENT FORECAST UPDATE...EXPANDED THE LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FURTHER WEST TOWARD THE I-25 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

A FEW SHOWERS ALONG WITH A WEAK TSTM OR TWO MOVING EAST NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EVENING
WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF A MINOR DISTURBANCE.

MAIN DIFFICULTY WILL BE HOW MUCH LOW CLOUDINESS REDEVELOPS OVER
THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL SAG
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
BUT SOME FOG SHOULD OCCUR LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. 850MB
RHS BECOME VERY HIGH AND SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY EXPANSIVE AREA OF LOW
CLOUDS MAINLY OVER THE PANHANDLE BY LATE TONIGHT.

A MILD DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE
PLAINS WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE. DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD
GRADUALLY ACROSS THE CWA LATER MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
SO EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THEN. WARMER AS WELL TUESDAY AS THE
COOL SFC AIRMASS CONTINUES RETREATING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE
STILL LOOKS TO BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE MIDWEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE WARMEST GUIDANCE AND LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW GUIDANCE CONSENSUS AS A DRY ATMOSPHERE AND LIGHT WINDS
ALLOW FOR LARGER DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES. MAIN CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TODAY`S MODEL
SOLUTION TREND IS DRIER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE MODELS SHOWED
YESTERDAY...WHICH IS THE CASE FOR BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS.
TYPICALLY THE MODELS OVERDO THE STRENGTH OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
CRASHING INTO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE MODELS BACK OFF ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER IN THE NEXT
SEVERAL RUNS FOR LATE THIS WEEK. EITHER WAY EXPECTING SOME
COOLING FROM A COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK...THE QUESTION IS HOW
MUCH COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 535 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

ISOLATED GUSTY -SHRA FROM LAR TO CYS WILL END BY 02Z. COLD FRONT
PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL STALL ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE
LATER THIS EVENING...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
EXPECT LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS FORECAST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BEGINNING AFTER 06Z
AND LASTING THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

NO CONCERNS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. A MINOR
PUSH OF COOLER AIR WILL ALLOW FOR A MILD DAY OVER THE PLAINS
MONDAY THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN TUESDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAMSKI
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...LIEBL
AVIATION...JAMSKI
FIRE WEATHER...RE







000
FXUS65 KRIW 150150 AAA
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
228 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.UPDATE...A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING FOR LOW RH...WARM TEMPS...AND GUSTY WIND TO 25
KNOTS IN SOUTHWEST WYOMING. SEE CYSRFWRIW FOR MORE DETAILS.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS.  CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
DRY WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

AT MANY ISSUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER AND BRING LARGELY WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB
INTO THE 80S FOR THE BASIN LOCATIONS EAST OF THE DIVIDE FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE A BIT FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT A BIT FURTHER TO THE EAST AND A
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WITH A BIT MORE MOISTURE
ARRIVING THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE DIVIDE. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE FAIRLY
SPARSE AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
MEANWHILE...EXPECT THE DRY AND WARM WEATHER TO CONTINUE EAST OF THE
DIVIDE.

A COMBINATION OF THE RIDGE SHIFTING FURTHER EAST AND FLATTENING AND
INCREASING MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM HURRICANE ODILE MAY
INCREASE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON SPREADING THE MOISTURE FURTHER EASTWARD BUT MOISTURE
FROM TROPICAL SYSTEMS CAN BE REALLY FICKLE SO WE MADE FEW CHANGES
FOR THURSDAY. WITH A FRONT AND TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY SHOULD HAVE THE BEST COVERAGE OF POSSIBLE
CONVECTION. CONTINUITY LOOKED REASONABLE SO AGAIN WE MADE FEW
CHANGES AT THIS POINT. WITH MORE CLOUD COVER...EXPECT A COOLING
TREND FOR FRIDAY AS WELL. AS FOR NEXT WEEKEND...THERE CONTINUES TO
BE A LOT OF DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS SO FOR NOW ONCE AGAIN...FEW
CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. A GUSTY WEST WIND
WILL OCCUR AGAIN IN SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING UNTIL 02Z
MONDAY. THIS WOULD INCLUDE KRKS...KBPI...AND KPNA TERMINAL SITES.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH WITH NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
SPREADING THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A BUILDING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BRINGING INCREASED
RELATIVE HUMIDITY. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS PRESENT WITH LITTLE WIND EXPECTED.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...C.BAKER
LONG TERM...HATTINGS
AVIATION...C.BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...C.BAKER/LIPSON











000
FXUS65 KRIW 150150 AAA
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
228 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.UPDATE...A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING FOR LOW RH...WARM TEMPS...AND GUSTY WIND TO 25
KNOTS IN SOUTHWEST WYOMING. SEE CYSRFWRIW FOR MORE DETAILS.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS.  CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
DRY WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

AT MANY ISSUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER AND BRING LARGELY WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB
INTO THE 80S FOR THE BASIN LOCATIONS EAST OF THE DIVIDE FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE A BIT FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT A BIT FURTHER TO THE EAST AND A
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WITH A BIT MORE MOISTURE
ARRIVING THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE DIVIDE. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE FAIRLY
SPARSE AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
MEANWHILE...EXPECT THE DRY AND WARM WEATHER TO CONTINUE EAST OF THE
DIVIDE.

A COMBINATION OF THE RIDGE SHIFTING FURTHER EAST AND FLATTENING AND
INCREASING MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM HURRICANE ODILE MAY
INCREASE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON SPREADING THE MOISTURE FURTHER EASTWARD BUT MOISTURE
FROM TROPICAL SYSTEMS CAN BE REALLY FICKLE SO WE MADE FEW CHANGES
FOR THURSDAY. WITH A FRONT AND TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY SHOULD HAVE THE BEST COVERAGE OF POSSIBLE
CONVECTION. CONTINUITY LOOKED REASONABLE SO AGAIN WE MADE FEW
CHANGES AT THIS POINT. WITH MORE CLOUD COVER...EXPECT A COOLING
TREND FOR FRIDAY AS WELL. AS FOR NEXT WEEKEND...THERE CONTINUES TO
BE A LOT OF DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS SO FOR NOW ONCE AGAIN...FEW
CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. A GUSTY WEST WIND
WILL OCCUR AGAIN IN SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING UNTIL 02Z
MONDAY. THIS WOULD INCLUDE KRKS...KBPI...AND KPNA TERMINAL SITES.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH WITH NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
SPREADING THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A BUILDING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BRINGING INCREASED
RELATIVE HUMIDITY. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS PRESENT WITH LITTLE WIND EXPECTED.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...C.BAKER
LONG TERM...HATTINGS
AVIATION...C.BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...C.BAKER/LIPSON











000
FXUS65 KRIW 150150 AAA
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
228 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.UPDATE...A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING FOR LOW RH...WARM TEMPS...AND GUSTY WIND TO 25
KNOTS IN SOUTHWEST WYOMING. SEE CYSRFWRIW FOR MORE DETAILS.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS.  CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
DRY WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

AT MANY ISSUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER AND BRING LARGELY WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB
INTO THE 80S FOR THE BASIN LOCATIONS EAST OF THE DIVIDE FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE A BIT FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT A BIT FURTHER TO THE EAST AND A
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WITH A BIT MORE MOISTURE
ARRIVING THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE DIVIDE. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE FAIRLY
SPARSE AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
MEANWHILE...EXPECT THE DRY AND WARM WEATHER TO CONTINUE EAST OF THE
DIVIDE.

A COMBINATION OF THE RIDGE SHIFTING FURTHER EAST AND FLATTENING AND
INCREASING MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM HURRICANE ODILE MAY
INCREASE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON SPREADING THE MOISTURE FURTHER EASTWARD BUT MOISTURE
FROM TROPICAL SYSTEMS CAN BE REALLY FICKLE SO WE MADE FEW CHANGES
FOR THURSDAY. WITH A FRONT AND TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY SHOULD HAVE THE BEST COVERAGE OF POSSIBLE
CONVECTION. CONTINUITY LOOKED REASONABLE SO AGAIN WE MADE FEW
CHANGES AT THIS POINT. WITH MORE CLOUD COVER...EXPECT A COOLING
TREND FOR FRIDAY AS WELL. AS FOR NEXT WEEKEND...THERE CONTINUES TO
BE A LOT OF DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS SO FOR NOW ONCE AGAIN...FEW
CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. A GUSTY WEST WIND
WILL OCCUR AGAIN IN SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING UNTIL 02Z
MONDAY. THIS WOULD INCLUDE KRKS...KBPI...AND KPNA TERMINAL SITES.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH WITH NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
SPREADING THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A BUILDING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BRINGING INCREASED
RELATIVE HUMIDITY. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS PRESENT WITH LITTLE WIND EXPECTED.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...C.BAKER
LONG TERM...HATTINGS
AVIATION...C.BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...C.BAKER/LIPSON











000
FXUS65 KRIW 150150 AAA
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
228 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.UPDATE...A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING FOR LOW RH...WARM TEMPS...AND GUSTY WIND TO 25
KNOTS IN SOUTHWEST WYOMING. SEE CYSRFWRIW FOR MORE DETAILS.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS.  CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
DRY WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

AT MANY ISSUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER AND BRING LARGELY WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB
INTO THE 80S FOR THE BASIN LOCATIONS EAST OF THE DIVIDE FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE A BIT FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT A BIT FURTHER TO THE EAST AND A
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WITH A BIT MORE MOISTURE
ARRIVING THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE DIVIDE. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE FAIRLY
SPARSE AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
MEANWHILE...EXPECT THE DRY AND WARM WEATHER TO CONTINUE EAST OF THE
DIVIDE.

A COMBINATION OF THE RIDGE SHIFTING FURTHER EAST AND FLATTENING AND
INCREASING MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM HURRICANE ODILE MAY
INCREASE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON SPREADING THE MOISTURE FURTHER EASTWARD BUT MOISTURE
FROM TROPICAL SYSTEMS CAN BE REALLY FICKLE SO WE MADE FEW CHANGES
FOR THURSDAY. WITH A FRONT AND TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY SHOULD HAVE THE BEST COVERAGE OF POSSIBLE
CONVECTION. CONTINUITY LOOKED REASONABLE SO AGAIN WE MADE FEW
CHANGES AT THIS POINT. WITH MORE CLOUD COVER...EXPECT A COOLING
TREND FOR FRIDAY AS WELL. AS FOR NEXT WEEKEND...THERE CONTINUES TO
BE A LOT OF DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS SO FOR NOW ONCE AGAIN...FEW
CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. A GUSTY WEST WIND
WILL OCCUR AGAIN IN SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING UNTIL 02Z
MONDAY. THIS WOULD INCLUDE KRKS...KBPI...AND KPNA TERMINAL SITES.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH WITH NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
SPREADING THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A BUILDING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BRINGING INCREASED
RELATIVE HUMIDITY. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS PRESENT WITH LITTLE WIND EXPECTED.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...C.BAKER
LONG TERM...HATTINGS
AVIATION...C.BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...C.BAKER/LIPSON











000
FXUS65 KCYS 142343 AAA
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
543 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

A FEW SHOWERS ALONG WITH A WEAK TSTM OR TWO MOVING EAST NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EVENING
WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF A MINOR DISTURBANCE.

MAIN DIFFICULTY WILL BE HOW MUCH LOW CLOUDINESS REDEVELOPS OVER
THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL SAG
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
BUT SOME FOG SHOULD OCCUR LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. 850MB
RHS BECOME VERY HIGH AND SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY EXPANSIVE AREA OF LOW
CLOUDS MAINLY OVER THE PANHANDLE BY LATE TONIGHT.

A MILD DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE
PLAINS WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE. DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD
GRADUALLY ACROSS THE CWA LATER MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
SO EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THEN. WARMER AS WELL TUESDAY AS THE
COOL SFC AIRMASS CONTINUES RETREATING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE
STILL LOOKS TO BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE MIDWEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE WARMEST GUIDANCE AND LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW GUIDANCE CONSENSUS AS A DRY ATMOSPHERE AND LIGHT WINDS
ALLOW FOR LARGER DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES. MAIN CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TODAY`S MODEL
SOLUTION TREND IS DRIER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE MODELS SHOWED
YESTERDAY...WHICH IS THE CASE FOR BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS.
TYPICALLY THE MODELS OVERDO THE STRENGTH OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
CRASHING INTO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE MODELS BACK OFF ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER IN THE NEXT
SEVERAL RUNS FOR LATE THIS WEEK. EITHER WAY EXPECTING SOME
COOLING FROM A COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK...THE QUESTION IS HOW
MUCH COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 535 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

ISOLATED GUSTY -SHRA FROM LAR TO CYS WILL END BY 02Z. COLD FRONT
PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL STALL ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE
LATER THIS EVENING...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
EXPECT LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS FORECAST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BEGINNING AFTER 06Z
AND LASTING THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

NO CONCERNS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. A MINOR
PUSH OF COOLER AIR WILL ALLOW FOR A MILD DAY OVER THE PLAINS
MONDAY THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN TUESDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...LIEBL
AVIATION...JAMSKI
FIRE WEATHER...RE







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