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000
FXUS65 KCYS 271743
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1140 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1058 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER DOWN SOMEWHAT AS SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT OVER
ALL BUT THE EASTERN ROWS OF THE CWA COUNTIES. WINDS ARE STARTING
TO INCREASE AND WILL BECOME GUSTY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN THE WIND IT WILL BE A NICE MILD DAY WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. 09Z OBJECTIVE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALED A
110 KT UPPER JET EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS INTO NEB. WE ARE
STILL SEEING SOME ENHANCEMENT ON INFRARED SAT IMAGERY AND WEAK RADAR
ECHOS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE JET. BELIEVE MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
NOT EVEN REACHING THE GROUND...BUT A FEW SFC OBS HAVE REPORTED LIGHT
RAIN FROM TIME TO TIME. WILL KEEP LOWER END POPS GOING THROUGH THE
PRE DAWN HOURS...BUT EXPECT PCPN CHANCES TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS EAST. NOT
MUCH ELSE TO SPEAK OF IN THE NEAR TERM. WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
TODAY AS HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGING BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY WITH GOOD WEST-TO-EAST PRESSURE
GRADIENTS IN PLACE AND 30 KT FLOW AT H75.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR SAT. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD WITH THERMAL PROFILES WARMING QUITE RAPIDLY
INTO THE AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE TRENDED EVEN WARMER WITH H7 TEMPS AT
00Z SUN...WITH THE GFS/NAM/ECM ALL SHOWING 6+ DEG C. THIS COMBINED
WITH DEEP SUBSIDENCE AND STRONG LLVL DOWNSLOPE SUGGESTS NEAR RECORD
HIGHS OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. DEFINITELY KEEPING FORECAST HIGHS A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE IN THIS PATTERN. ALSO CONTINUED TO TREND
LOWER FOR DEW POINTS ON SAT AFTERNOON AS GUIDANCE IS ALMOST ALWAYS
TOO MOIST IN THESE SCENARIOS. THE H85 CAG-CPR GRADIENT IS PROGGED AT
AROUND 45 METERS WITH A BROAD SWATH OF 30 TO 40 KT H7-H8 FLOW LIKELY
OVER THE CWA AT PEAK HEATING. GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY
DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER...SO EXPECT WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS. WILL ISSUE A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SATURDAY AFTN FOR THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN
WY AND THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE.

THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH AN
ENERGETIC...BUT FAST-MOVING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK
COLD FROPA ON SAT NIGHT. STILL NOT ENTIRELY SOLD ON PCPN CHANCES AS
NEITHER MODEL SHOWS MUCH FOR QPF. OVERALL 700-300 MILLIBAR MOISTURE
FIELDS ARE LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE AS WELL...SO ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED. EXPECT HIGHS WILL BE SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN SAT. STILL A FAIRLY MILD DAY THOUGH AS THE COLUMN SHOULD
WARM QUICKLY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AS PREVIOUS DAYS AS LLVL GRADIENTS WEAKEN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A GENERALLY A DRY PERIOD. THERE
ARE EARLY INDICATIONS FOR A FAST-MOVING STORM SYSTEM TO BRING A
ROUND OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BEFORE
THAT HAPPENS THOUGH...LLVL THERMAL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVR THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH 60S AND EVEN SOME
LOW 70S EXPECTED OVR LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE WRN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. WILL NO DOUBT HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AS THE DRY/BREEZY PRE-FRONTAL AIR
MASS SUGGESTS AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF FIRE SPREAD. BOTH THE
ECMWF/GFS ACCELERATE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS NRN WYOMING/SRN
MONTANA LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEMS PASSAGE TO THE
NORTH OF THE CWFA POINT TO PRIMARILY A WIND PRODUCER WITH LIKELY A
BORA WIND EVENT. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT
A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH
POST-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES THAT WILL RETURN TO THE 50S AND LOW 60S.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL DROP THRU THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVES TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE THURSDAY THRU
FRIDAY AS THE COLDER AIR MASS FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. IF
CURRENT TEMPERATURE PROGS HOLD...THE INITIAL PRECIP WOULD BE
RAIN...WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BACK TO MORE NORMAL VALUES ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE PERIOD AS A BROKEN CLOUD DECK
AROUND 10K FEET EARLY GRADUALLY LIFTS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN GUSTY THROUGH 00Z TODAY WITH
GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS LIKELY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST TODAY WITH WARMER TEMPS
AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. RAPID FIRE GROWTH COULD
OCCUR IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...BUT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HUMIDITIES
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PERCENT
WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THOSE AREAS. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD LIMIT LINGERING
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR WYZ301-310.

NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NEZ311>313.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...CLH



000
FXUS65 KCYS 271743
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1140 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1058 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER DOWN SOMEWHAT AS SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT OVER
ALL BUT THE EASTERN ROWS OF THE CWA COUNTIES. WINDS ARE STARTING
TO INCREASE AND WILL BECOME GUSTY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN THE WIND IT WILL BE A NICE MILD DAY WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. 09Z OBJECTIVE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALED A
110 KT UPPER JET EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS INTO NEB. WE ARE
STILL SEEING SOME ENHANCEMENT ON INFRARED SAT IMAGERY AND WEAK RADAR
ECHOS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE JET. BELIEVE MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
NOT EVEN REACHING THE GROUND...BUT A FEW SFC OBS HAVE REPORTED LIGHT
RAIN FROM TIME TO TIME. WILL KEEP LOWER END POPS GOING THROUGH THE
PRE DAWN HOURS...BUT EXPECT PCPN CHANCES TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS EAST. NOT
MUCH ELSE TO SPEAK OF IN THE NEAR TERM. WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
TODAY AS HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGING BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY WITH GOOD WEST-TO-EAST PRESSURE
GRADIENTS IN PLACE AND 30 KT FLOW AT H75.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR SAT. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD WITH THERMAL PROFILES WARMING QUITE RAPIDLY
INTO THE AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE TRENDED EVEN WARMER WITH H7 TEMPS AT
00Z SUN...WITH THE GFS/NAM/ECM ALL SHOWING 6+ DEG C. THIS COMBINED
WITH DEEP SUBSIDENCE AND STRONG LLVL DOWNSLOPE SUGGESTS NEAR RECORD
HIGHS OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. DEFINITELY KEEPING FORECAST HIGHS A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE IN THIS PATTERN. ALSO CONTINUED TO TREND
LOWER FOR DEW POINTS ON SAT AFTERNOON AS GUIDANCE IS ALMOST ALWAYS
TOO MOIST IN THESE SCENARIOS. THE H85 CAG-CPR GRADIENT IS PROGGED AT
AROUND 45 METERS WITH A BROAD SWATH OF 30 TO 40 KT H7-H8 FLOW LIKELY
OVER THE CWA AT PEAK HEATING. GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY
DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER...SO EXPECT WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS. WILL ISSUE A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SATURDAY AFTN FOR THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN
WY AND THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE.

THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH AN
ENERGETIC...BUT FAST-MOVING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK
COLD FROPA ON SAT NIGHT. STILL NOT ENTIRELY SOLD ON PCPN CHANCES AS
NEITHER MODEL SHOWS MUCH FOR QPF. OVERALL 700-300 MILLIBAR MOISTURE
FIELDS ARE LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE AS WELL...SO ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED. EXPECT HIGHS WILL BE SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN SAT. STILL A FAIRLY MILD DAY THOUGH AS THE COLUMN SHOULD
WARM QUICKLY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AS PREVIOUS DAYS AS LLVL GRADIENTS WEAKEN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A GENERALLY A DRY PERIOD. THERE
ARE EARLY INDICATIONS FOR A FAST-MOVING STORM SYSTEM TO BRING A
ROUND OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BEFORE
THAT HAPPENS THOUGH...LLVL THERMAL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVR THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH 60S AND EVEN SOME
LOW 70S EXPECTED OVR LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE WRN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. WILL NO DOUBT HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AS THE DRY/BREEZY PRE-FRONTAL AIR
MASS SUGGESTS AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF FIRE SPREAD. BOTH THE
ECMWF/GFS ACCELERATE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS NRN WYOMING/SRN
MONTANA LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEMS PASSAGE TO THE
NORTH OF THE CWFA POINT TO PRIMARILY A WIND PRODUCER WITH LIKELY A
BORA WIND EVENT. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT
A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH
POST-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES THAT WILL RETURN TO THE 50S AND LOW 60S.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL DROP THRU THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVES TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE THURSDAY THRU
FRIDAY AS THE COLDER AIR MASS FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. IF
CURRENT TEMPERATURE PROGS HOLD...THE INITIAL PRECIP WOULD BE
RAIN...WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BACK TO MORE NORMAL VALUES ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE PERIOD AS A BROKEN CLOUD DECK
AROUND 10K FEET EARLY GRADUALLY LIFTS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN GUSTY THROUGH 00Z TODAY WITH
GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS LIKELY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST TODAY WITH WARMER TEMPS
AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. RAPID FIRE GROWTH COULD
OCCUR IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...BUT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HUMIDITIES
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PERCENT
WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THOSE AREAS. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD LIMIT LINGERING
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR WYZ301-310.

NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NEZ311>313.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...CLH



000
FXUS65 KCYS 271743
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1140 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1058 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER DOWN SOMEWHAT AS SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT OVER
ALL BUT THE EASTERN ROWS OF THE CWA COUNTIES. WINDS ARE STARTING
TO INCREASE AND WILL BECOME GUSTY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN THE WIND IT WILL BE A NICE MILD DAY WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. 09Z OBJECTIVE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALED A
110 KT UPPER JET EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS INTO NEB. WE ARE
STILL SEEING SOME ENHANCEMENT ON INFRARED SAT IMAGERY AND WEAK RADAR
ECHOS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE JET. BELIEVE MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
NOT EVEN REACHING THE GROUND...BUT A FEW SFC OBS HAVE REPORTED LIGHT
RAIN FROM TIME TO TIME. WILL KEEP LOWER END POPS GOING THROUGH THE
PRE DAWN HOURS...BUT EXPECT PCPN CHANCES TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS EAST. NOT
MUCH ELSE TO SPEAK OF IN THE NEAR TERM. WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
TODAY AS HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGING BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY WITH GOOD WEST-TO-EAST PRESSURE
GRADIENTS IN PLACE AND 30 KT FLOW AT H75.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR SAT. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD WITH THERMAL PROFILES WARMING QUITE RAPIDLY
INTO THE AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE TRENDED EVEN WARMER WITH H7 TEMPS AT
00Z SUN...WITH THE GFS/NAM/ECM ALL SHOWING 6+ DEG C. THIS COMBINED
WITH DEEP SUBSIDENCE AND STRONG LLVL DOWNSLOPE SUGGESTS NEAR RECORD
HIGHS OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. DEFINITELY KEEPING FORECAST HIGHS A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE IN THIS PATTERN. ALSO CONTINUED TO TREND
LOWER FOR DEW POINTS ON SAT AFTERNOON AS GUIDANCE IS ALMOST ALWAYS
TOO MOIST IN THESE SCENARIOS. THE H85 CAG-CPR GRADIENT IS PROGGED AT
AROUND 45 METERS WITH A BROAD SWATH OF 30 TO 40 KT H7-H8 FLOW LIKELY
OVER THE CWA AT PEAK HEATING. GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY
DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER...SO EXPECT WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS. WILL ISSUE A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SATURDAY AFTN FOR THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN
WY AND THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE.

THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH AN
ENERGETIC...BUT FAST-MOVING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK
COLD FROPA ON SAT NIGHT. STILL NOT ENTIRELY SOLD ON PCPN CHANCES AS
NEITHER MODEL SHOWS MUCH FOR QPF. OVERALL 700-300 MILLIBAR MOISTURE
FIELDS ARE LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE AS WELL...SO ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED. EXPECT HIGHS WILL BE SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN SAT. STILL A FAIRLY MILD DAY THOUGH AS THE COLUMN SHOULD
WARM QUICKLY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AS PREVIOUS DAYS AS LLVL GRADIENTS WEAKEN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A GENERALLY A DRY PERIOD. THERE
ARE EARLY INDICATIONS FOR A FAST-MOVING STORM SYSTEM TO BRING A
ROUND OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BEFORE
THAT HAPPENS THOUGH...LLVL THERMAL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVR THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH 60S AND EVEN SOME
LOW 70S EXPECTED OVR LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE WRN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. WILL NO DOUBT HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AS THE DRY/BREEZY PRE-FRONTAL AIR
MASS SUGGESTS AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF FIRE SPREAD. BOTH THE
ECMWF/GFS ACCELERATE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS NRN WYOMING/SRN
MONTANA LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEMS PASSAGE TO THE
NORTH OF THE CWFA POINT TO PRIMARILY A WIND PRODUCER WITH LIKELY A
BORA WIND EVENT. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT
A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH
POST-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES THAT WILL RETURN TO THE 50S AND LOW 60S.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL DROP THRU THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVES TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE THURSDAY THRU
FRIDAY AS THE COLDER AIR MASS FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. IF
CURRENT TEMPERATURE PROGS HOLD...THE INITIAL PRECIP WOULD BE
RAIN...WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BACK TO MORE NORMAL VALUES ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE PERIOD AS A BROKEN CLOUD DECK
AROUND 10K FEET EARLY GRADUALLY LIFTS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN GUSTY THROUGH 00Z TODAY WITH
GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS LIKELY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST TODAY WITH WARMER TEMPS
AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. RAPID FIRE GROWTH COULD
OCCUR IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...BUT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HUMIDITIES
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PERCENT
WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THOSE AREAS. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD LIMIT LINGERING
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR WYZ301-310.

NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NEZ311>313.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...CLH



000
FXUS65 KCYS 271743
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1140 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1058 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER DOWN SOMEWHAT AS SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT OVER
ALL BUT THE EASTERN ROWS OF THE CWA COUNTIES. WINDS ARE STARTING
TO INCREASE AND WILL BECOME GUSTY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN THE WIND IT WILL BE A NICE MILD DAY WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. 09Z OBJECTIVE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALED A
110 KT UPPER JET EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS INTO NEB. WE ARE
STILL SEEING SOME ENHANCEMENT ON INFRARED SAT IMAGERY AND WEAK RADAR
ECHOS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE JET. BELIEVE MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
NOT EVEN REACHING THE GROUND...BUT A FEW SFC OBS HAVE REPORTED LIGHT
RAIN FROM TIME TO TIME. WILL KEEP LOWER END POPS GOING THROUGH THE
PRE DAWN HOURS...BUT EXPECT PCPN CHANCES TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS EAST. NOT
MUCH ELSE TO SPEAK OF IN THE NEAR TERM. WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
TODAY AS HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGING BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY WITH GOOD WEST-TO-EAST PRESSURE
GRADIENTS IN PLACE AND 30 KT FLOW AT H75.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR SAT. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD WITH THERMAL PROFILES WARMING QUITE RAPIDLY
INTO THE AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE TRENDED EVEN WARMER WITH H7 TEMPS AT
00Z SUN...WITH THE GFS/NAM/ECM ALL SHOWING 6+ DEG C. THIS COMBINED
WITH DEEP SUBSIDENCE AND STRONG LLVL DOWNSLOPE SUGGESTS NEAR RECORD
HIGHS OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. DEFINITELY KEEPING FORECAST HIGHS A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE IN THIS PATTERN. ALSO CONTINUED TO TREND
LOWER FOR DEW POINTS ON SAT AFTERNOON AS GUIDANCE IS ALMOST ALWAYS
TOO MOIST IN THESE SCENARIOS. THE H85 CAG-CPR GRADIENT IS PROGGED AT
AROUND 45 METERS WITH A BROAD SWATH OF 30 TO 40 KT H7-H8 FLOW LIKELY
OVER THE CWA AT PEAK HEATING. GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY
DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER...SO EXPECT WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS. WILL ISSUE A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SATURDAY AFTN FOR THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN
WY AND THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE.

THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH AN
ENERGETIC...BUT FAST-MOVING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK
COLD FROPA ON SAT NIGHT. STILL NOT ENTIRELY SOLD ON PCPN CHANCES AS
NEITHER MODEL SHOWS MUCH FOR QPF. OVERALL 700-300 MILLIBAR MOISTURE
FIELDS ARE LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE AS WELL...SO ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED. EXPECT HIGHS WILL BE SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN SAT. STILL A FAIRLY MILD DAY THOUGH AS THE COLUMN SHOULD
WARM QUICKLY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AS PREVIOUS DAYS AS LLVL GRADIENTS WEAKEN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A GENERALLY A DRY PERIOD. THERE
ARE EARLY INDICATIONS FOR A FAST-MOVING STORM SYSTEM TO BRING A
ROUND OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BEFORE
THAT HAPPENS THOUGH...LLVL THERMAL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVR THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH 60S AND EVEN SOME
LOW 70S EXPECTED OVR LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE WRN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. WILL NO DOUBT HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AS THE DRY/BREEZY PRE-FRONTAL AIR
MASS SUGGESTS AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF FIRE SPREAD. BOTH THE
ECMWF/GFS ACCELERATE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS NRN WYOMING/SRN
MONTANA LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEMS PASSAGE TO THE
NORTH OF THE CWFA POINT TO PRIMARILY A WIND PRODUCER WITH LIKELY A
BORA WIND EVENT. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT
A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH
POST-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES THAT WILL RETURN TO THE 50S AND LOW 60S.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL DROP THRU THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVES TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE THURSDAY THRU
FRIDAY AS THE COLDER AIR MASS FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. IF
CURRENT TEMPERATURE PROGS HOLD...THE INITIAL PRECIP WOULD BE
RAIN...WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BACK TO MORE NORMAL VALUES ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE PERIOD AS A BROKEN CLOUD DECK
AROUND 10K FEET EARLY GRADUALLY LIFTS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN GUSTY THROUGH 00Z TODAY WITH
GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS LIKELY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST TODAY WITH WARMER TEMPS
AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. RAPID FIRE GROWTH COULD
OCCUR IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...BUT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HUMIDITIES
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PERCENT
WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THOSE AREAS. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD LIMIT LINGERING
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR WYZ301-310.

NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NEZ311>313.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...CLH



000
FXUS65 KCYS 271743
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1140 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1058 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER DOWN SOMEWHAT AS SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT OVER
ALL BUT THE EASTERN ROWS OF THE CWA COUNTIES. WINDS ARE STARTING
TO INCREASE AND WILL BECOME GUSTY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN THE WIND IT WILL BE A NICE MILD DAY WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. 09Z OBJECTIVE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALED A
110 KT UPPER JET EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS INTO NEB. WE ARE
STILL SEEING SOME ENHANCEMENT ON INFRARED SAT IMAGERY AND WEAK RADAR
ECHOS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE JET. BELIEVE MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
NOT EVEN REACHING THE GROUND...BUT A FEW SFC OBS HAVE REPORTED LIGHT
RAIN FROM TIME TO TIME. WILL KEEP LOWER END POPS GOING THROUGH THE
PRE DAWN HOURS...BUT EXPECT PCPN CHANCES TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS EAST. NOT
MUCH ELSE TO SPEAK OF IN THE NEAR TERM. WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
TODAY AS HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGING BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY WITH GOOD WEST-TO-EAST PRESSURE
GRADIENTS IN PLACE AND 30 KT FLOW AT H75.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR SAT. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD WITH THERMAL PROFILES WARMING QUITE RAPIDLY
INTO THE AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE TRENDED EVEN WARMER WITH H7 TEMPS AT
00Z SUN...WITH THE GFS/NAM/ECM ALL SHOWING 6+ DEG C. THIS COMBINED
WITH DEEP SUBSIDENCE AND STRONG LLVL DOWNSLOPE SUGGESTS NEAR RECORD
HIGHS OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. DEFINITELY KEEPING FORECAST HIGHS A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE IN THIS PATTERN. ALSO CONTINUED TO TREND
LOWER FOR DEW POINTS ON SAT AFTERNOON AS GUIDANCE IS ALMOST ALWAYS
TOO MOIST IN THESE SCENARIOS. THE H85 CAG-CPR GRADIENT IS PROGGED AT
AROUND 45 METERS WITH A BROAD SWATH OF 30 TO 40 KT H7-H8 FLOW LIKELY
OVER THE CWA AT PEAK HEATING. GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY
DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER...SO EXPECT WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS. WILL ISSUE A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SATURDAY AFTN FOR THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN
WY AND THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE.

THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH AN
ENERGETIC...BUT FAST-MOVING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK
COLD FROPA ON SAT NIGHT. STILL NOT ENTIRELY SOLD ON PCPN CHANCES AS
NEITHER MODEL SHOWS MUCH FOR QPF. OVERALL 700-300 MILLIBAR MOISTURE
FIELDS ARE LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE AS WELL...SO ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED. EXPECT HIGHS WILL BE SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN SAT. STILL A FAIRLY MILD DAY THOUGH AS THE COLUMN SHOULD
WARM QUICKLY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AS PREVIOUS DAYS AS LLVL GRADIENTS WEAKEN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A GENERALLY A DRY PERIOD. THERE
ARE EARLY INDICATIONS FOR A FAST-MOVING STORM SYSTEM TO BRING A
ROUND OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BEFORE
THAT HAPPENS THOUGH...LLVL THERMAL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVR THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH 60S AND EVEN SOME
LOW 70S EXPECTED OVR LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE WRN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. WILL NO DOUBT HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AS THE DRY/BREEZY PRE-FRONTAL AIR
MASS SUGGESTS AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF FIRE SPREAD. BOTH THE
ECMWF/GFS ACCELERATE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS NRN WYOMING/SRN
MONTANA LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEMS PASSAGE TO THE
NORTH OF THE CWFA POINT TO PRIMARILY A WIND PRODUCER WITH LIKELY A
BORA WIND EVENT. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT
A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH
POST-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES THAT WILL RETURN TO THE 50S AND LOW 60S.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL DROP THRU THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVES TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE THURSDAY THRU
FRIDAY AS THE COLDER AIR MASS FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. IF
CURRENT TEMPERATURE PROGS HOLD...THE INITIAL PRECIP WOULD BE
RAIN...WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BACK TO MORE NORMAL VALUES ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE PERIOD AS A BROKEN CLOUD DECK
AROUND 10K FEET EARLY GRADUALLY LIFTS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN GUSTY THROUGH 00Z TODAY WITH
GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS LIKELY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST TODAY WITH WARMER TEMPS
AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. RAPID FIRE GROWTH COULD
OCCUR IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...BUT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HUMIDITIES
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PERCENT
WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THOSE AREAS. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD LIMIT LINGERING
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR WYZ301-310.

NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NEZ311>313.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...CLH




000
FXUS65 KCYS 271743
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1140 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1058 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER DOWN SOMEWHAT AS SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT OVER
ALL BUT THE EASTERN ROWS OF THE CWA COUNTIES. WINDS ARE STARTING
TO INCREASE AND WILL BECOME GUSTY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN THE WIND IT WILL BE A NICE MILD DAY WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. 09Z OBJECTIVE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALED A
110 KT UPPER JET EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS INTO NEB. WE ARE
STILL SEEING SOME ENHANCEMENT ON INFRARED SAT IMAGERY AND WEAK RADAR
ECHOS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE JET. BELIEVE MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
NOT EVEN REACHING THE GROUND...BUT A FEW SFC OBS HAVE REPORTED LIGHT
RAIN FROM TIME TO TIME. WILL KEEP LOWER END POPS GOING THROUGH THE
PRE DAWN HOURS...BUT EXPECT PCPN CHANCES TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS EAST. NOT
MUCH ELSE TO SPEAK OF IN THE NEAR TERM. WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
TODAY AS HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGING BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY WITH GOOD WEST-TO-EAST PRESSURE
GRADIENTS IN PLACE AND 30 KT FLOW AT H75.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR SAT. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD WITH THERMAL PROFILES WARMING QUITE RAPIDLY
INTO THE AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE TRENDED EVEN WARMER WITH H7 TEMPS AT
00Z SUN...WITH THE GFS/NAM/ECM ALL SHOWING 6+ DEG C. THIS COMBINED
WITH DEEP SUBSIDENCE AND STRONG LLVL DOWNSLOPE SUGGESTS NEAR RECORD
HIGHS OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. DEFINITELY KEEPING FORECAST HIGHS A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE IN THIS PATTERN. ALSO CONTINUED TO TREND
LOWER FOR DEW POINTS ON SAT AFTERNOON AS GUIDANCE IS ALMOST ALWAYS
TOO MOIST IN THESE SCENARIOS. THE H85 CAG-CPR GRADIENT IS PROGGED AT
AROUND 45 METERS WITH A BROAD SWATH OF 30 TO 40 KT H7-H8 FLOW LIKELY
OVER THE CWA AT PEAK HEATING. GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY
DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER...SO EXPECT WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS. WILL ISSUE A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SATURDAY AFTN FOR THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN
WY AND THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE.

THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH AN
ENERGETIC...BUT FAST-MOVING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK
COLD FROPA ON SAT NIGHT. STILL NOT ENTIRELY SOLD ON PCPN CHANCES AS
NEITHER MODEL SHOWS MUCH FOR QPF. OVERALL 700-300 MILLIBAR MOISTURE
FIELDS ARE LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE AS WELL...SO ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED. EXPECT HIGHS WILL BE SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN SAT. STILL A FAIRLY MILD DAY THOUGH AS THE COLUMN SHOULD
WARM QUICKLY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AS PREVIOUS DAYS AS LLVL GRADIENTS WEAKEN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A GENERALLY A DRY PERIOD. THERE
ARE EARLY INDICATIONS FOR A FAST-MOVING STORM SYSTEM TO BRING A
ROUND OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BEFORE
THAT HAPPENS THOUGH...LLVL THERMAL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVR THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH 60S AND EVEN SOME
LOW 70S EXPECTED OVR LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE WRN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. WILL NO DOUBT HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AS THE DRY/BREEZY PRE-FRONTAL AIR
MASS SUGGESTS AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF FIRE SPREAD. BOTH THE
ECMWF/GFS ACCELERATE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS NRN WYOMING/SRN
MONTANA LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEMS PASSAGE TO THE
NORTH OF THE CWFA POINT TO PRIMARILY A WIND PRODUCER WITH LIKELY A
BORA WIND EVENT. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT
A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH
POST-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES THAT WILL RETURN TO THE 50S AND LOW 60S.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL DROP THRU THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVES TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE THURSDAY THRU
FRIDAY AS THE COLDER AIR MASS FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. IF
CURRENT TEMPERATURE PROGS HOLD...THE INITIAL PRECIP WOULD BE
RAIN...WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BACK TO MORE NORMAL VALUES ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE PERIOD AS A BROKEN CLOUD DECK
AROUND 10K FEET EARLY GRADUALLY LIFTS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN GUSTY THROUGH 00Z TODAY WITH
GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS LIKELY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST TODAY WITH WARMER TEMPS
AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. RAPID FIRE GROWTH COULD
OCCUR IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...BUT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HUMIDITIES
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PERCENT
WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THOSE AREAS. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD LIMIT LINGERING
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR WYZ301-310.

NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NEZ311>313.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...CLH


  [top]

000
FXUS65 KRIW 271724
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1125 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT HAS
BEEN BRINGING SOME GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THESE SHOULD
DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE A MAINLY QUIET WEATHER DAY
WITH SOME PASSING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
QUITE WARM WITH SOME LOCATIONS RISING INTO THE 70S.

THINGS GET A BIT MORE ACTIVE FOR SATURDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT WILL NOT
BE IN THE FORM OF MOISTURE. MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL
MOVE BY TO THE NORTH OVER MONTANA. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT THIS WOULD BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE
RULE. IT WILL BE IN FORM OF WIND. THE MODELS SHOW A 90 KNOT JET
STREAK APPROACHING THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE. THIS PUTS
MUCH OF THE STATE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUAD AND THEREFORE SOME
INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND DOWNWARD MOMENTUM.  700
MILLIBAR WINDS INCREASE TO 50 TO 60 KNOTS ACROSS THE FAVORED AREAS
OF THE ABSAROKAS AND CODY FOOTHILLS. IT IS BORDERLINE FOR HIGH WIND
THERE ON SATURDAY SO WE WILL LET THE DAY CREW MAKE THE CALL. ANOTHER
AREA OF CONCERN IS NORTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY WHICH IS FAVORED IN
NORTHWEST FLOW AFTER COLD FRONT PASSAGES. OF MORE CONCERN IN THE
RISK FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER. WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH CRITICAL FUELS...WE WILL HOIST A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ZONES WITH CRITICAL FUELS.
IT WILL BE QUITE WARM AS WELL WITH MANY LOWER ELEVATIONS AGAIN
SEEING HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S.

CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN CALM FOR SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY
AND RIDGING MOVES BACK ACROSS THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
SOMEWHAT BEHIND THE FRONT...AROUND 10 DEGREES FOR MANY AREAS BUT
THIS STILL PUTS MOST AREAS ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY UNDER A FLAT UPPER
RIDGE. A COMPACT...BUT STOUT UPPER LOW WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
EXTREME NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY...WITH THE ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD
FRONT SWEEPING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME CONVECTION ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHWEST...THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE EXTREME FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHERE FUELS ARE
CONSIDERED CRITICAL.

A COOLER AND MAINLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF THE
PACIFIC COLD FRONT. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...AS WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY...BUT COOLER CONDITIONS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER RH.

GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THURSDAY...THEN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT THEN EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY. THE CURRENT
PROJECTED TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WOULD GIVE THE AREA A BETTER CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION THAN EITHER SYSTEM ON SATURDAY OR TUESDAY. BOTH THE
00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS SHOW SOME UPSLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPING THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL BROAD BRUSH SLIGHT
VALLEY/CHANCE MOUNTAIN POPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR NOW...AS TIMING
AND CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL
OF BELOW AVERAGE ON THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WIND CORRIDOR...VICINITY 50SM NE
KRKS-KCPR...AND ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE DIVIDE AFTER 06Z
SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  THE COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE
ACROSS JOHNSON CO SATURDAY EVENING INCLUDING KBYG.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

EXPECT ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY TODAY. HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY SO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
ON SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY MAY BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TO LOWER ELEVATION ZONES
WITH CRITICAL FUELS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FOR SUNDAY WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LESS WIND.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING WYZ280-281-283.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...AEM/LIPSON
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS











000
FXUS65 KRIW 271724
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1125 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT HAS
BEEN BRINGING SOME GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THESE SHOULD
DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE A MAINLY QUIET WEATHER DAY
WITH SOME PASSING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
QUITE WARM WITH SOME LOCATIONS RISING INTO THE 70S.

THINGS GET A BIT MORE ACTIVE FOR SATURDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT WILL NOT
BE IN THE FORM OF MOISTURE. MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL
MOVE BY TO THE NORTH OVER MONTANA. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT THIS WOULD BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE
RULE. IT WILL BE IN FORM OF WIND. THE MODELS SHOW A 90 KNOT JET
STREAK APPROACHING THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE. THIS PUTS
MUCH OF THE STATE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUAD AND THEREFORE SOME
INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND DOWNWARD MOMENTUM.  700
MILLIBAR WINDS INCREASE TO 50 TO 60 KNOTS ACROSS THE FAVORED AREAS
OF THE ABSAROKAS AND CODY FOOTHILLS. IT IS BORDERLINE FOR HIGH WIND
THERE ON SATURDAY SO WE WILL LET THE DAY CREW MAKE THE CALL. ANOTHER
AREA OF CONCERN IS NORTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY WHICH IS FAVORED IN
NORTHWEST FLOW AFTER COLD FRONT PASSAGES. OF MORE CONCERN IN THE
RISK FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER. WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH CRITICAL FUELS...WE WILL HOIST A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ZONES WITH CRITICAL FUELS.
IT WILL BE QUITE WARM AS WELL WITH MANY LOWER ELEVATIONS AGAIN
SEEING HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S.

CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN CALM FOR SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY
AND RIDGING MOVES BACK ACROSS THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
SOMEWHAT BEHIND THE FRONT...AROUND 10 DEGREES FOR MANY AREAS BUT
THIS STILL PUTS MOST AREAS ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY UNDER A FLAT UPPER
RIDGE. A COMPACT...BUT STOUT UPPER LOW WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
EXTREME NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY...WITH THE ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD
FRONT SWEEPING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME CONVECTION ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHWEST...THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE EXTREME FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHERE FUELS ARE
CONSIDERED CRITICAL.

A COOLER AND MAINLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF THE
PACIFIC COLD FRONT. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...AS WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY...BUT COOLER CONDITIONS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER RH.

GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THURSDAY...THEN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT THEN EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY. THE CURRENT
PROJECTED TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WOULD GIVE THE AREA A BETTER CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION THAN EITHER SYSTEM ON SATURDAY OR TUESDAY. BOTH THE
00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS SHOW SOME UPSLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPING THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL BROAD BRUSH SLIGHT
VALLEY/CHANCE MOUNTAIN POPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR NOW...AS TIMING
AND CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL
OF BELOW AVERAGE ON THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WIND CORRIDOR...VICINITY 50SM NE
KRKS-KCPR...AND ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE DIVIDE AFTER 06Z
SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  THE COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE
ACROSS JOHNSON CO SATURDAY EVENING INCLUDING KBYG.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

EXPECT ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY TODAY. HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY SO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
ON SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY MAY BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TO LOWER ELEVATION ZONES
WITH CRITICAL FUELS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FOR SUNDAY WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LESS WIND.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING WYZ280-281-283.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...AEM/LIPSON
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS










000
FXUS65 KRIW 271724
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1125 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT HAS
BEEN BRINGING SOME GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THESE SHOULD
DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE A MAINLY QUIET WEATHER DAY
WITH SOME PASSING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
QUITE WARM WITH SOME LOCATIONS RISING INTO THE 70S.

THINGS GET A BIT MORE ACTIVE FOR SATURDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT WILL NOT
BE IN THE FORM OF MOISTURE. MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL
MOVE BY TO THE NORTH OVER MONTANA. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT THIS WOULD BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE
RULE. IT WILL BE IN FORM OF WIND. THE MODELS SHOW A 90 KNOT JET
STREAK APPROACHING THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE. THIS PUTS
MUCH OF THE STATE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUAD AND THEREFORE SOME
INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND DOWNWARD MOMENTUM.  700
MILLIBAR WINDS INCREASE TO 50 TO 60 KNOTS ACROSS THE FAVORED AREAS
OF THE ABSAROKAS AND CODY FOOTHILLS. IT IS BORDERLINE FOR HIGH WIND
THERE ON SATURDAY SO WE WILL LET THE DAY CREW MAKE THE CALL. ANOTHER
AREA OF CONCERN IS NORTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY WHICH IS FAVORED IN
NORTHWEST FLOW AFTER COLD FRONT PASSAGES. OF MORE CONCERN IN THE
RISK FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER. WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH CRITICAL FUELS...WE WILL HOIST A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ZONES WITH CRITICAL FUELS.
IT WILL BE QUITE WARM AS WELL WITH MANY LOWER ELEVATIONS AGAIN
SEEING HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S.

CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN CALM FOR SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY
AND RIDGING MOVES BACK ACROSS THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
SOMEWHAT BEHIND THE FRONT...AROUND 10 DEGREES FOR MANY AREAS BUT
THIS STILL PUTS MOST AREAS ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY UNDER A FLAT UPPER
RIDGE. A COMPACT...BUT STOUT UPPER LOW WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
EXTREME NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY...WITH THE ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD
FRONT SWEEPING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME CONVECTION ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHWEST...THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE EXTREME FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHERE FUELS ARE
CONSIDERED CRITICAL.

A COOLER AND MAINLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF THE
PACIFIC COLD FRONT. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...AS WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY...BUT COOLER CONDITIONS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER RH.

GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THURSDAY...THEN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT THEN EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY. THE CURRENT
PROJECTED TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WOULD GIVE THE AREA A BETTER CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION THAN EITHER SYSTEM ON SATURDAY OR TUESDAY. BOTH THE
00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS SHOW SOME UPSLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPING THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL BROAD BRUSH SLIGHT
VALLEY/CHANCE MOUNTAIN POPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR NOW...AS TIMING
AND CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL
OF BELOW AVERAGE ON THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WIND CORRIDOR...VICINITY 50SM NE
KRKS-KCPR...AND ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE DIVIDE AFTER 06Z
SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  THE COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE
ACROSS JOHNSON CO SATURDAY EVENING INCLUDING KBYG.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

EXPECT ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY TODAY. HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY SO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
ON SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY MAY BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TO LOWER ELEVATION ZONES
WITH CRITICAL FUELS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FOR SUNDAY WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LESS WIND.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING WYZ280-281-283.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...AEM/LIPSON
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS









  [top]

000
FXUS63 KUNR 271705
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1105 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST IN THE PERIOD
SUPPORTING MUCH WARMER WEATHER OVER THE REGION. LL BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND ASSOCIATED PASSING IMPULSES AND ENSUING LIGHT PRECIP...WILL
SHIFT EAST AND WANE THIS MORNING...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY. COMPACT BUT STRONG PAC UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SHIFT QUICKLY EAST TONIGHT THROUGH SAT...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION SAT NIGHT...SUPPORTING VERY WINDY
CONDS AND CHANCES FOR SHRA.

TODAY...LL FGEN AND ASSOCIATED FORCING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN FA THIS MORNING. WEAK FORCING AND DRY LL PROFILES WILL
SUPPORT ONLY LIGHT PRECIP...MAINLY FLURRIES. SFC WARM FRONT WILL
SHIFT EAST WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
PASSING UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE/LINGERING PAC MOISTURE/AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW INSTABILITY SHRA ACROSS THE BH
AND SE. HAVE INCLUDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDS EXPECTED MOST PLACES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 60S.

SAT...SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED THERMAL RIDGE WILL PASS OVER
THE FA...WITH INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY
WARM DAY WITH 70S MOST AREAS AND A FEW 80S IN THE LEE OF THE BH/S.
UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION SAT
EVENING. LIMITED...BUT SUFFICIENT LL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW
SCT-ISOLD SHRA WITH POSSIBLY A TS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH CLOSER TO THE
BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT EARLY EVENING. BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHRA/ISOLD TS WILL DEVELOP LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE MAIN LOBE OF
LSA WILL ADV ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE UPPER WAVE...WHICH WILL
TAKE MOST OF IT/S ASSOCIATED LSA/UVM ACROSS ND. LIMITED POPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE FA GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE/FORCING. THE BIGGEST
IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WINDS. STRONG PRESSURE RISE COUPLET
COUPLED WITH CAA/STEEP LL LAPSE RATES/AND POTENTIAL SHOWER OUTFLOW
WILL SUPPORT VERY STRONG GUSTY NW WINDS ALONG THE SFC FRONT. WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH LOOK POSSIBLE...ESP ACROSS NW SD AND IN
THE LEE OF THE BH/S. HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS UP.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF WILL SLIDE
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROF CLIPPING
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS UPPER
DISTURBANCE...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOMING VERY
BREEZY. UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO NORTHWEST FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH MODELS SHOWING A FEW MORE WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AFTER THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 1104 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A
WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN SD THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

WARM TEMPERATURES WITH DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT
POTENTIAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
NE WY AND SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF
15 TO 20 PERCENT WITH WESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN LOWER RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL SUPPORT EVEN STRONGER WINDS SATURDAY EVENING...ALONG WITH A
WIND SHIFT. WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 60 MPH WITH THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST WYOMING SATURDAY EVENING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH RESPECT TO THE DEGREE OF WIND SPEEDS AS WELL AS MINIMUM RH.
GIVEN THESE CONCERNS...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR SDZ262>264.

WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR WYZ259-297-298.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...POJORLIE
FIRE WEATHER...JC






000
FXUS63 KUNR 271705
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1105 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST IN THE PERIOD
SUPPORTING MUCH WARMER WEATHER OVER THE REGION. LL BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND ASSOCIATED PASSING IMPULSES AND ENSUING LIGHT PRECIP...WILL
SHIFT EAST AND WANE THIS MORNING...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY. COMPACT BUT STRONG PAC UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SHIFT QUICKLY EAST TONIGHT THROUGH SAT...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION SAT NIGHT...SUPPORTING VERY WINDY
CONDS AND CHANCES FOR SHRA.

TODAY...LL FGEN AND ASSOCIATED FORCING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN FA THIS MORNING. WEAK FORCING AND DRY LL PROFILES WILL
SUPPORT ONLY LIGHT PRECIP...MAINLY FLURRIES. SFC WARM FRONT WILL
SHIFT EAST WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
PASSING UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE/LINGERING PAC MOISTURE/AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW INSTABILITY SHRA ACROSS THE BH
AND SE. HAVE INCLUDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDS EXPECTED MOST PLACES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 60S.

SAT...SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED THERMAL RIDGE WILL PASS OVER
THE FA...WITH INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY
WARM DAY WITH 70S MOST AREAS AND A FEW 80S IN THE LEE OF THE BH/S.
UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION SAT
EVENING. LIMITED...BUT SUFFICIENT LL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW
SCT-ISOLD SHRA WITH POSSIBLY A TS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH CLOSER TO THE
BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT EARLY EVENING. BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHRA/ISOLD TS WILL DEVELOP LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE MAIN LOBE OF
LSA WILL ADV ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE UPPER WAVE...WHICH WILL
TAKE MOST OF IT/S ASSOCIATED LSA/UVM ACROSS ND. LIMITED POPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE FA GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE/FORCING. THE BIGGEST
IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WINDS. STRONG PRESSURE RISE COUPLET
COUPLED WITH CAA/STEEP LL LAPSE RATES/AND POTENTIAL SHOWER OUTFLOW
WILL SUPPORT VERY STRONG GUSTY NW WINDS ALONG THE SFC FRONT. WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH LOOK POSSIBLE...ESP ACROSS NW SD AND IN
THE LEE OF THE BH/S. HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS UP.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF WILL SLIDE
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROF CLIPPING
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS UPPER
DISTURBANCE...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOMING VERY
BREEZY. UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO NORTHWEST FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH MODELS SHOWING A FEW MORE WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AFTER THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 1104 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A
WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN SD THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

WARM TEMPERATURES WITH DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT
POTENTIAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
NE WY AND SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF
15 TO 20 PERCENT WITH WESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN LOWER RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL SUPPORT EVEN STRONGER WINDS SATURDAY EVENING...ALONG WITH A
WIND SHIFT. WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 60 MPH WITH THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST WYOMING SATURDAY EVENING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH RESPECT TO THE DEGREE OF WIND SPEEDS AS WELL AS MINIMUM RH.
GIVEN THESE CONCERNS...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR SDZ262>264.

WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR WYZ259-297-298.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...POJORLIE
FIRE WEATHER...JC







000
FXUS63 KUNR 271705
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1105 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST IN THE PERIOD
SUPPORTING MUCH WARMER WEATHER OVER THE REGION. LL BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND ASSOCIATED PASSING IMPULSES AND ENSUING LIGHT PRECIP...WILL
SHIFT EAST AND WANE THIS MORNING...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY. COMPACT BUT STRONG PAC UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SHIFT QUICKLY EAST TONIGHT THROUGH SAT...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION SAT NIGHT...SUPPORTING VERY WINDY
CONDS AND CHANCES FOR SHRA.

TODAY...LL FGEN AND ASSOCIATED FORCING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN FA THIS MORNING. WEAK FORCING AND DRY LL PROFILES WILL
SUPPORT ONLY LIGHT PRECIP...MAINLY FLURRIES. SFC WARM FRONT WILL
SHIFT EAST WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
PASSING UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE/LINGERING PAC MOISTURE/AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW INSTABILITY SHRA ACROSS THE BH
AND SE. HAVE INCLUDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDS EXPECTED MOST PLACES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 60S.

SAT...SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED THERMAL RIDGE WILL PASS OVER
THE FA...WITH INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY
WARM DAY WITH 70S MOST AREAS AND A FEW 80S IN THE LEE OF THE BH/S.
UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION SAT
EVENING. LIMITED...BUT SUFFICIENT LL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW
SCT-ISOLD SHRA WITH POSSIBLY A TS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH CLOSER TO THE
BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT EARLY EVENING. BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHRA/ISOLD TS WILL DEVELOP LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE MAIN LOBE OF
LSA WILL ADV ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE UPPER WAVE...WHICH WILL
TAKE MOST OF IT/S ASSOCIATED LSA/UVM ACROSS ND. LIMITED POPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE FA GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE/FORCING. THE BIGGEST
IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WINDS. STRONG PRESSURE RISE COUPLET
COUPLED WITH CAA/STEEP LL LAPSE RATES/AND POTENTIAL SHOWER OUTFLOW
WILL SUPPORT VERY STRONG GUSTY NW WINDS ALONG THE SFC FRONT. WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH LOOK POSSIBLE...ESP ACROSS NW SD AND IN
THE LEE OF THE BH/S. HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS UP.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF WILL SLIDE
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROF CLIPPING
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS UPPER
DISTURBANCE...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOMING VERY
BREEZY. UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO NORTHWEST FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH MODELS SHOWING A FEW MORE WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AFTER THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 1104 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A
WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN SD THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

WARM TEMPERATURES WITH DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT
POTENTIAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
NE WY AND SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF
15 TO 20 PERCENT WITH WESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN LOWER RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL SUPPORT EVEN STRONGER WINDS SATURDAY EVENING...ALONG WITH A
WIND SHIFT. WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 60 MPH WITH THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST WYOMING SATURDAY EVENING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH RESPECT TO THE DEGREE OF WIND SPEEDS AS WELL AS MINIMUM RH.
GIVEN THESE CONCERNS...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR SDZ262>264.

WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR WYZ259-297-298.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...POJORLIE
FIRE WEATHER...JC







000
FXUS63 KUNR 271705
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1105 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST IN THE PERIOD
SUPPORTING MUCH WARMER WEATHER OVER THE REGION. LL BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND ASSOCIATED PASSING IMPULSES AND ENSUING LIGHT PRECIP...WILL
SHIFT EAST AND WANE THIS MORNING...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY. COMPACT BUT STRONG PAC UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SHIFT QUICKLY EAST TONIGHT THROUGH SAT...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION SAT NIGHT...SUPPORTING VERY WINDY
CONDS AND CHANCES FOR SHRA.

TODAY...LL FGEN AND ASSOCIATED FORCING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN FA THIS MORNING. WEAK FORCING AND DRY LL PROFILES WILL
SUPPORT ONLY LIGHT PRECIP...MAINLY FLURRIES. SFC WARM FRONT WILL
SHIFT EAST WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
PASSING UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE/LINGERING PAC MOISTURE/AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW INSTABILITY SHRA ACROSS THE BH
AND SE. HAVE INCLUDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDS EXPECTED MOST PLACES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 60S.

SAT...SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED THERMAL RIDGE WILL PASS OVER
THE FA...WITH INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY
WARM DAY WITH 70S MOST AREAS AND A FEW 80S IN THE LEE OF THE BH/S.
UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION SAT
EVENING. LIMITED...BUT SUFFICIENT LL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW
SCT-ISOLD SHRA WITH POSSIBLY A TS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH CLOSER TO THE
BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT EARLY EVENING. BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHRA/ISOLD TS WILL DEVELOP LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE MAIN LOBE OF
LSA WILL ADV ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE UPPER WAVE...WHICH WILL
TAKE MOST OF IT/S ASSOCIATED LSA/UVM ACROSS ND. LIMITED POPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE FA GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE/FORCING. THE BIGGEST
IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WINDS. STRONG PRESSURE RISE COUPLET
COUPLED WITH CAA/STEEP LL LAPSE RATES/AND POTENTIAL SHOWER OUTFLOW
WILL SUPPORT VERY STRONG GUSTY NW WINDS ALONG THE SFC FRONT. WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH LOOK POSSIBLE...ESP ACROSS NW SD AND IN
THE LEE OF THE BH/S. HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS UP.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF WILL SLIDE
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROF CLIPPING
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS UPPER
DISTURBANCE...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOMING VERY
BREEZY. UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO NORTHWEST FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH MODELS SHOWING A FEW MORE WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AFTER THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 1104 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A
WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN SD THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

WARM TEMPERATURES WITH DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT
POTENTIAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
NE WY AND SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF
15 TO 20 PERCENT WITH WESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN LOWER RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL SUPPORT EVEN STRONGER WINDS SATURDAY EVENING...ALONG WITH A
WIND SHIFT. WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 60 MPH WITH THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST WYOMING SATURDAY EVENING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH RESPECT TO THE DEGREE OF WIND SPEEDS AS WELL AS MINIMUM RH.
GIVEN THESE CONCERNS...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR SDZ262>264.

WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR WYZ259-297-298.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...POJORLIE
FIRE WEATHER...JC







000
FXUS63 KUNR 271705
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1105 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST IN THE PERIOD
SUPPORTING MUCH WARMER WEATHER OVER THE REGION. LL BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND ASSOCIATED PASSING IMPULSES AND ENSUING LIGHT PRECIP...WILL
SHIFT EAST AND WANE THIS MORNING...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY. COMPACT BUT STRONG PAC UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SHIFT QUICKLY EAST TONIGHT THROUGH SAT...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION SAT NIGHT...SUPPORTING VERY WINDY
CONDS AND CHANCES FOR SHRA.

TODAY...LL FGEN AND ASSOCIATED FORCING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN FA THIS MORNING. WEAK FORCING AND DRY LL PROFILES WILL
SUPPORT ONLY LIGHT PRECIP...MAINLY FLURRIES. SFC WARM FRONT WILL
SHIFT EAST WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
PASSING UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE/LINGERING PAC MOISTURE/AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW INSTABILITY SHRA ACROSS THE BH
AND SE. HAVE INCLUDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDS EXPECTED MOST PLACES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 60S.

SAT...SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED THERMAL RIDGE WILL PASS OVER
THE FA...WITH INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY
WARM DAY WITH 70S MOST AREAS AND A FEW 80S IN THE LEE OF THE BH/S.
UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION SAT
EVENING. LIMITED...BUT SUFFICIENT LL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW
SCT-ISOLD SHRA WITH POSSIBLY A TS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH CLOSER TO THE
BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT EARLY EVENING. BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHRA/ISOLD TS WILL DEVELOP LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE MAIN LOBE OF
LSA WILL ADV ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE UPPER WAVE...WHICH WILL
TAKE MOST OF IT/S ASSOCIATED LSA/UVM ACROSS ND. LIMITED POPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE FA GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE/FORCING. THE BIGGEST
IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WINDS. STRONG PRESSURE RISE COUPLET
COUPLED WITH CAA/STEEP LL LAPSE RATES/AND POTENTIAL SHOWER OUTFLOW
WILL SUPPORT VERY STRONG GUSTY NW WINDS ALONG THE SFC FRONT. WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH LOOK POSSIBLE...ESP ACROSS NW SD AND IN
THE LEE OF THE BH/S. HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS UP.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF WILL SLIDE
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROF CLIPPING
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS UPPER
DISTURBANCE...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOMING VERY
BREEZY. UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO NORTHWEST FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH MODELS SHOWING A FEW MORE WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AFTER THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 1104 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A
WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN SD THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

WARM TEMPERATURES WITH DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT
POTENTIAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
NE WY AND SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF
15 TO 20 PERCENT WITH WESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN LOWER RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL SUPPORT EVEN STRONGER WINDS SATURDAY EVENING...ALONG WITH A
WIND SHIFT. WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 60 MPH WITH THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST WYOMING SATURDAY EVENING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH RESPECT TO THE DEGREE OF WIND SPEEDS AS WELL AS MINIMUM RH.
GIVEN THESE CONCERNS...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR SDZ262>264.

WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR WYZ259-297-298.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...POJORLIE
FIRE WEATHER...JC







000
FXUS63 KUNR 271705
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1105 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST IN THE PERIOD
SUPPORTING MUCH WARMER WEATHER OVER THE REGION. LL BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND ASSOCIATED PASSING IMPULSES AND ENSUING LIGHT PRECIP...WILL
SHIFT EAST AND WANE THIS MORNING...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY. COMPACT BUT STRONG PAC UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SHIFT QUICKLY EAST TONIGHT THROUGH SAT...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION SAT NIGHT...SUPPORTING VERY WINDY
CONDS AND CHANCES FOR SHRA.

TODAY...LL FGEN AND ASSOCIATED FORCING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN FA THIS MORNING. WEAK FORCING AND DRY LL PROFILES WILL
SUPPORT ONLY LIGHT PRECIP...MAINLY FLURRIES. SFC WARM FRONT WILL
SHIFT EAST WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
PASSING UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE/LINGERING PAC MOISTURE/AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW INSTABILITY SHRA ACROSS THE BH
AND SE. HAVE INCLUDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDS EXPECTED MOST PLACES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 60S.

SAT...SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED THERMAL RIDGE WILL PASS OVER
THE FA...WITH INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY
WARM DAY WITH 70S MOST AREAS AND A FEW 80S IN THE LEE OF THE BH/S.
UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION SAT
EVENING. LIMITED...BUT SUFFICIENT LL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW
SCT-ISOLD SHRA WITH POSSIBLY A TS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH CLOSER TO THE
BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT EARLY EVENING. BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHRA/ISOLD TS WILL DEVELOP LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE MAIN LOBE OF
LSA WILL ADV ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE UPPER WAVE...WHICH WILL
TAKE MOST OF IT/S ASSOCIATED LSA/UVM ACROSS ND. LIMITED POPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE FA GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE/FORCING. THE BIGGEST
IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WINDS. STRONG PRESSURE RISE COUPLET
COUPLED WITH CAA/STEEP LL LAPSE RATES/AND POTENTIAL SHOWER OUTFLOW
WILL SUPPORT VERY STRONG GUSTY NW WINDS ALONG THE SFC FRONT. WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH LOOK POSSIBLE...ESP ACROSS NW SD AND IN
THE LEE OF THE BH/S. HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS UP.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF WILL SLIDE
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROF CLIPPING
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS UPPER
DISTURBANCE...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOMING VERY
BREEZY. UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO NORTHWEST FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH MODELS SHOWING A FEW MORE WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AFTER THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 1104 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A
WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN SD THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

WARM TEMPERATURES WITH DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT
POTENTIAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
NE WY AND SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF
15 TO 20 PERCENT WITH WESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN LOWER RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL SUPPORT EVEN STRONGER WINDS SATURDAY EVENING...ALONG WITH A
WIND SHIFT. WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 60 MPH WITH THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST WYOMING SATURDAY EVENING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH RESPECT TO THE DEGREE OF WIND SPEEDS AS WELL AS MINIMUM RH.
GIVEN THESE CONCERNS...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR SDZ262>264.

WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR WYZ259-297-298.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...POJORLIE
FIRE WEATHER...JC







000
FXUS65 KCYS 271702
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1102 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1058 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER DOWN SOMEWHAT AS SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT OVER
ALL BUT THE EASTERN ROWS OF THE CWA COUNTIES. WINDS ARE STARTING
TO INCREASE AND WILL BECOME GUSTY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN THE WIND IT WILL BE A NICE MILD DAY WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. 09Z OBJECTIVE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALED A
110 KT UPPER JET EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS INTO NEB. WE ARE
STILL SEEING SOME ENHANCEMENT ON INFRARED SAT IMAGERY AND WEAK RADAR
ECHOS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE JET. BELIEVE MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
NOT EVEN REACHING THE GROUND...BUT A FEW SFC OBS HAVE REPORTED LIGHT
RAIN FROM TIME TO TIME. WILL KEEP LOWER END POPS GOING THROUGH THE
PRE DAWN HOURS...BUT EXPECT PCPN CHANCES TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS EAST. NOT
MUCH ELSE TO SPEAK OF IN THE NEAR TERM. WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
TODAY AS HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGING BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY WITH GOOD WEST-TO-EAST PRESSURE
GRADIENTS IN PLACE AND 30 KT FLOW AT H75.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR SAT. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD WITH THERMAL PROFILES WARMING QUITE RAPIDLY
INTO THE AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE TRENDED EVEN WARMER WITH H7 TEMPS AT
00Z SUN...WITH THE GFS/NAM/ECM ALL SHOWING 6+ DEG C. THIS COMBINED
WITH DEEP SUBSIDENCE AND STRONG LLVL DOWNSLOPE SUGGESTS NEAR RECORD
HIGHS OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. DEFINITELY KEEPING FORECAST HIGHS A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE IN THIS PATTERN. ALSO CONTINUED TO TREND
LOWER FOR DEW POINTS ON SAT AFTERNOON AS GUIDANCE IS ALMOST ALWAYS
TOO MOIST IN THESE SCENARIOS. THE H85 CAG-CPR GRADIENT IS PROGGED AT
AROUND 45 METERS WITH A BROAD SWATH OF 30 TO 40 KT H7-H8 FLOW LIKELY
OVER THE CWA AT PEAK HEATING. GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY
DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER...SO EXPECT WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS. WILL ISSUE A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SATURDAY AFTN FOR THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN
WY AND THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE.

THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH AN
ENERGETIC...BUT FAST-MOVING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK
COLD FROPA ON SAT NIGHT. STILL NOT ENTIRELY SOLD ON PCPN CHANCES AS
NEITHER MODEL SHOWS MUCH FOR QPF. OVERALL 700-300 MILLIBAR MOISTURE
FIELDS ARE LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE AS WELL...SO ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED. EXPECT HIGHS WILL BE SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN SAT. STILL A FAIRLY MILD DAY THOUGH AS THE COLUMN SHOULD
WARM QUICKLY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AS PREVIOUS DAYS AS LLVL GRADIENTS WEAKEN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A GENERALLY A DRY PERIOD. THERE
ARE EARLY INDICATIONS FOR A FAST-MOVING STORM SYSTEM TO BRING A
ROUND OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BEFORE
THAT HAPPENS THOUGH...LLVL THERMAL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVR THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH 60S AND EVEN SOME
LOW 70S EXPECTED OVR LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE WRN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. WILL NO DOUBT HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AS THE DRY/BREEZY PRE-FRONTAL AIR
MASS SUGGESTS AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF FIRE SPREAD. BOTH THE
ECMWF/GFS ACCELERATE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS NRN WYOMING/SRN
MONTANA LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEMS PASSAGE TO THE
NORTH OF THE CWFA POINT TO PRIMARILY A WIND PRODUCER WITH LIKELY A
BORA WIND EVENT. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT
A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH
POST-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES THAT WILL RETURN TO THE 50S AND LOW 60S.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL DROP THRU THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVES TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE THURSDAY THRU
FRIDAY AS THE COLDER AIR MASS FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. IF
CURRENT TEMPERATURE PROGS HOLD...THE INITIAL PRECIP WOULD BE
RAIN...WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BACK TO MORE NORMAL VALUES ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE PERIOD AS BKN050-100 CLOUD
DECK EARLY GRADUALLY LIFTING TO CIRRUS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN GUSTY 16-02Z TODAY WITH GUSTS
OF 25-30 KNOTS LIKELY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST TODAY WITH WARMER TEMPS
AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. RAPID FIRE GROWTH COULD
OCCUR IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...BUT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HUMIDITIES
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PERCENT
WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THOSE AREAS. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD LIMIT LINGERING
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR WYZ301-310.

NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NEZ311>313.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...CAH
FIRE WEATHER...CLH




000
FXUS65 KCYS 271702
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1102 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1058 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER DOWN SOMEWHAT AS SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT OVER
ALL BUT THE EASTERN ROWS OF THE CWA COUNTIES. WINDS ARE STARTING
TO INCREASE AND WILL BECOME GUSTY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN THE WIND IT WILL BE A NICE MILD DAY WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. 09Z OBJECTIVE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALED A
110 KT UPPER JET EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS INTO NEB. WE ARE
STILL SEEING SOME ENHANCEMENT ON INFRARED SAT IMAGERY AND WEAK RADAR
ECHOS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE JET. BELIEVE MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
NOT EVEN REACHING THE GROUND...BUT A FEW SFC OBS HAVE REPORTED LIGHT
RAIN FROM TIME TO TIME. WILL KEEP LOWER END POPS GOING THROUGH THE
PRE DAWN HOURS...BUT EXPECT PCPN CHANCES TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS EAST. NOT
MUCH ELSE TO SPEAK OF IN THE NEAR TERM. WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
TODAY AS HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGING BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY WITH GOOD WEST-TO-EAST PRESSURE
GRADIENTS IN PLACE AND 30 KT FLOW AT H75.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR SAT. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD WITH THERMAL PROFILES WARMING QUITE RAPIDLY
INTO THE AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE TRENDED EVEN WARMER WITH H7 TEMPS AT
00Z SUN...WITH THE GFS/NAM/ECM ALL SHOWING 6+ DEG C. THIS COMBINED
WITH DEEP SUBSIDENCE AND STRONG LLVL DOWNSLOPE SUGGESTS NEAR RECORD
HIGHS OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. DEFINITELY KEEPING FORECAST HIGHS A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE IN THIS PATTERN. ALSO CONTINUED TO TREND
LOWER FOR DEW POINTS ON SAT AFTERNOON AS GUIDANCE IS ALMOST ALWAYS
TOO MOIST IN THESE SCENARIOS. THE H85 CAG-CPR GRADIENT IS PROGGED AT
AROUND 45 METERS WITH A BROAD SWATH OF 30 TO 40 KT H7-H8 FLOW LIKELY
OVER THE CWA AT PEAK HEATING. GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY
DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER...SO EXPECT WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS. WILL ISSUE A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SATURDAY AFTN FOR THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN
WY AND THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE.

THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH AN
ENERGETIC...BUT FAST-MOVING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK
COLD FROPA ON SAT NIGHT. STILL NOT ENTIRELY SOLD ON PCPN CHANCES AS
NEITHER MODEL SHOWS MUCH FOR QPF. OVERALL 700-300 MILLIBAR MOISTURE
FIELDS ARE LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE AS WELL...SO ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED. EXPECT HIGHS WILL BE SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN SAT. STILL A FAIRLY MILD DAY THOUGH AS THE COLUMN SHOULD
WARM QUICKLY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AS PREVIOUS DAYS AS LLVL GRADIENTS WEAKEN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A GENERALLY A DRY PERIOD. THERE
ARE EARLY INDICATIONS FOR A FAST-MOVING STORM SYSTEM TO BRING A
ROUND OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BEFORE
THAT HAPPENS THOUGH...LLVL THERMAL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVR THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH 60S AND EVEN SOME
LOW 70S EXPECTED OVR LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE WRN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. WILL NO DOUBT HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AS THE DRY/BREEZY PRE-FRONTAL AIR
MASS SUGGESTS AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF FIRE SPREAD. BOTH THE
ECMWF/GFS ACCELERATE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS NRN WYOMING/SRN
MONTANA LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEMS PASSAGE TO THE
NORTH OF THE CWFA POINT TO PRIMARILY A WIND PRODUCER WITH LIKELY A
BORA WIND EVENT. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT
A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH
POST-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES THAT WILL RETURN TO THE 50S AND LOW 60S.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL DROP THRU THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVES TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE THURSDAY THRU
FRIDAY AS THE COLDER AIR MASS FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. IF
CURRENT TEMPERATURE PROGS HOLD...THE INITIAL PRECIP WOULD BE
RAIN...WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BACK TO MORE NORMAL VALUES ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE PERIOD AS BKN050-100 CLOUD
DECK EARLY GRADUALLY LIFTING TO CIRRUS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN GUSTY 16-02Z TODAY WITH GUSTS
OF 25-30 KNOTS LIKELY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST TODAY WITH WARMER TEMPS
AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. RAPID FIRE GROWTH COULD
OCCUR IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...BUT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HUMIDITIES
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PERCENT
WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THOSE AREAS. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD LIMIT LINGERING
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR WYZ301-310.

NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NEZ311>313.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...CAH
FIRE WEATHER...CLH




000
FXUS65 KCYS 271702
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1102 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1058 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER DOWN SOMEWHAT AS SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT OVER
ALL BUT THE EASTERN ROWS OF THE CWA COUNTIES. WINDS ARE STARTING
TO INCREASE AND WILL BECOME GUSTY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN THE WIND IT WILL BE A NICE MILD DAY WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. 09Z OBJECTIVE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALED A
110 KT UPPER JET EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS INTO NEB. WE ARE
STILL SEEING SOME ENHANCEMENT ON INFRARED SAT IMAGERY AND WEAK RADAR
ECHOS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE JET. BELIEVE MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
NOT EVEN REACHING THE GROUND...BUT A FEW SFC OBS HAVE REPORTED LIGHT
RAIN FROM TIME TO TIME. WILL KEEP LOWER END POPS GOING THROUGH THE
PRE DAWN HOURS...BUT EXPECT PCPN CHANCES TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS EAST. NOT
MUCH ELSE TO SPEAK OF IN THE NEAR TERM. WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
TODAY AS HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGING BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY WITH GOOD WEST-TO-EAST PRESSURE
GRADIENTS IN PLACE AND 30 KT FLOW AT H75.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR SAT. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD WITH THERMAL PROFILES WARMING QUITE RAPIDLY
INTO THE AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE TRENDED EVEN WARMER WITH H7 TEMPS AT
00Z SUN...WITH THE GFS/NAM/ECM ALL SHOWING 6+ DEG C. THIS COMBINED
WITH DEEP SUBSIDENCE AND STRONG LLVL DOWNSLOPE SUGGESTS NEAR RECORD
HIGHS OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. DEFINITELY KEEPING FORECAST HIGHS A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE IN THIS PATTERN. ALSO CONTINUED TO TREND
LOWER FOR DEW POINTS ON SAT AFTERNOON AS GUIDANCE IS ALMOST ALWAYS
TOO MOIST IN THESE SCENARIOS. THE H85 CAG-CPR GRADIENT IS PROGGED AT
AROUND 45 METERS WITH A BROAD SWATH OF 30 TO 40 KT H7-H8 FLOW LIKELY
OVER THE CWA AT PEAK HEATING. GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY
DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER...SO EXPECT WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS. WILL ISSUE A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SATURDAY AFTN FOR THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN
WY AND THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE.

THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH AN
ENERGETIC...BUT FAST-MOVING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK
COLD FROPA ON SAT NIGHT. STILL NOT ENTIRELY SOLD ON PCPN CHANCES AS
NEITHER MODEL SHOWS MUCH FOR QPF. OVERALL 700-300 MILLIBAR MOISTURE
FIELDS ARE LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE AS WELL...SO ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED. EXPECT HIGHS WILL BE SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN SAT. STILL A FAIRLY MILD DAY THOUGH AS THE COLUMN SHOULD
WARM QUICKLY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AS PREVIOUS DAYS AS LLVL GRADIENTS WEAKEN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A GENERALLY A DRY PERIOD. THERE
ARE EARLY INDICATIONS FOR A FAST-MOVING STORM SYSTEM TO BRING A
ROUND OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BEFORE
THAT HAPPENS THOUGH...LLVL THERMAL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVR THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH 60S AND EVEN SOME
LOW 70S EXPECTED OVR LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE WRN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. WILL NO DOUBT HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AS THE DRY/BREEZY PRE-FRONTAL AIR
MASS SUGGESTS AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF FIRE SPREAD. BOTH THE
ECMWF/GFS ACCELERATE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS NRN WYOMING/SRN
MONTANA LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEMS PASSAGE TO THE
NORTH OF THE CWFA POINT TO PRIMARILY A WIND PRODUCER WITH LIKELY A
BORA WIND EVENT. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT
A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH
POST-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES THAT WILL RETURN TO THE 50S AND LOW 60S.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL DROP THRU THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVES TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE THURSDAY THRU
FRIDAY AS THE COLDER AIR MASS FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. IF
CURRENT TEMPERATURE PROGS HOLD...THE INITIAL PRECIP WOULD BE
RAIN...WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BACK TO MORE NORMAL VALUES ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE PERIOD AS BKN050-100 CLOUD
DECK EARLY GRADUALLY LIFTING TO CIRRUS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN GUSTY 16-02Z TODAY WITH GUSTS
OF 25-30 KNOTS LIKELY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST TODAY WITH WARMER TEMPS
AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. RAPID FIRE GROWTH COULD
OCCUR IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...BUT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HUMIDITIES
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PERCENT
WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THOSE AREAS. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD LIMIT LINGERING
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR WYZ301-310.

NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NEZ311>313.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...CAH
FIRE WEATHER...CLH




000
FXUS65 KCYS 271702
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1102 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1058 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER DOWN SOMEWHAT AS SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT OVER
ALL BUT THE EASTERN ROWS OF THE CWA COUNTIES. WINDS ARE STARTING
TO INCREASE AND WILL BECOME GUSTY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN THE WIND IT WILL BE A NICE MILD DAY WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. 09Z OBJECTIVE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALED A
110 KT UPPER JET EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS INTO NEB. WE ARE
STILL SEEING SOME ENHANCEMENT ON INFRARED SAT IMAGERY AND WEAK RADAR
ECHOS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE JET. BELIEVE MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
NOT EVEN REACHING THE GROUND...BUT A FEW SFC OBS HAVE REPORTED LIGHT
RAIN FROM TIME TO TIME. WILL KEEP LOWER END POPS GOING THROUGH THE
PRE DAWN HOURS...BUT EXPECT PCPN CHANCES TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS EAST. NOT
MUCH ELSE TO SPEAK OF IN THE NEAR TERM. WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
TODAY AS HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGING BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY WITH GOOD WEST-TO-EAST PRESSURE
GRADIENTS IN PLACE AND 30 KT FLOW AT H75.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR SAT. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD WITH THERMAL PROFILES WARMING QUITE RAPIDLY
INTO THE AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE TRENDED EVEN WARMER WITH H7 TEMPS AT
00Z SUN...WITH THE GFS/NAM/ECM ALL SHOWING 6+ DEG C. THIS COMBINED
WITH DEEP SUBSIDENCE AND STRONG LLVL DOWNSLOPE SUGGESTS NEAR RECORD
HIGHS OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. DEFINITELY KEEPING FORECAST HIGHS A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE IN THIS PATTERN. ALSO CONTINUED TO TREND
LOWER FOR DEW POINTS ON SAT AFTERNOON AS GUIDANCE IS ALMOST ALWAYS
TOO MOIST IN THESE SCENARIOS. THE H85 CAG-CPR GRADIENT IS PROGGED AT
AROUND 45 METERS WITH A BROAD SWATH OF 30 TO 40 KT H7-H8 FLOW LIKELY
OVER THE CWA AT PEAK HEATING. GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY
DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER...SO EXPECT WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS. WILL ISSUE A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SATURDAY AFTN FOR THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN
WY AND THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE.

THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH AN
ENERGETIC...BUT FAST-MOVING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK
COLD FROPA ON SAT NIGHT. STILL NOT ENTIRELY SOLD ON PCPN CHANCES AS
NEITHER MODEL SHOWS MUCH FOR QPF. OVERALL 700-300 MILLIBAR MOISTURE
FIELDS ARE LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE AS WELL...SO ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED. EXPECT HIGHS WILL BE SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN SAT. STILL A FAIRLY MILD DAY THOUGH AS THE COLUMN SHOULD
WARM QUICKLY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AS PREVIOUS DAYS AS LLVL GRADIENTS WEAKEN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A GENERALLY A DRY PERIOD. THERE
ARE EARLY INDICATIONS FOR A FAST-MOVING STORM SYSTEM TO BRING A
ROUND OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BEFORE
THAT HAPPENS THOUGH...LLVL THERMAL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVR THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH 60S AND EVEN SOME
LOW 70S EXPECTED OVR LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE WRN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. WILL NO DOUBT HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AS THE DRY/BREEZY PRE-FRONTAL AIR
MASS SUGGESTS AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF FIRE SPREAD. BOTH THE
ECMWF/GFS ACCELERATE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS NRN WYOMING/SRN
MONTANA LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEMS PASSAGE TO THE
NORTH OF THE CWFA POINT TO PRIMARILY A WIND PRODUCER WITH LIKELY A
BORA WIND EVENT. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT
A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH
POST-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES THAT WILL RETURN TO THE 50S AND LOW 60S.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL DROP THRU THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVES TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE THURSDAY THRU
FRIDAY AS THE COLDER AIR MASS FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. IF
CURRENT TEMPERATURE PROGS HOLD...THE INITIAL PRECIP WOULD BE
RAIN...WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BACK TO MORE NORMAL VALUES ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE PERIOD AS BKN050-100 CLOUD
DECK EARLY GRADUALLY LIFTING TO CIRRUS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN GUSTY 16-02Z TODAY WITH GUSTS
OF 25-30 KNOTS LIKELY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST TODAY WITH WARMER TEMPS
AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. RAPID FIRE GROWTH COULD
OCCUR IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...BUT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HUMIDITIES
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PERCENT
WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THOSE AREAS. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD LIMIT LINGERING
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR WYZ301-310.

NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NEZ311>313.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...CAH
FIRE WEATHER...CLH




000
FXUS65 KCYS 271702
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1102 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1058 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER DOWN SOMEWHAT AS SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT OVER
ALL BUT THE EASTERN ROWS OF THE CWA COUNTIES. WINDS ARE STARTING
TO INCREASE AND WILL BECOME GUSTY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN THE WIND IT WILL BE A NICE MILD DAY WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. 09Z OBJECTIVE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALED A
110 KT UPPER JET EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS INTO NEB. WE ARE
STILL SEEING SOME ENHANCEMENT ON INFRARED SAT IMAGERY AND WEAK RADAR
ECHOS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE JET. BELIEVE MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
NOT EVEN REACHING THE GROUND...BUT A FEW SFC OBS HAVE REPORTED LIGHT
RAIN FROM TIME TO TIME. WILL KEEP LOWER END POPS GOING THROUGH THE
PRE DAWN HOURS...BUT EXPECT PCPN CHANCES TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS EAST. NOT
MUCH ELSE TO SPEAK OF IN THE NEAR TERM. WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
TODAY AS HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGING BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY WITH GOOD WEST-TO-EAST PRESSURE
GRADIENTS IN PLACE AND 30 KT FLOW AT H75.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR SAT. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD WITH THERMAL PROFILES WARMING QUITE RAPIDLY
INTO THE AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE TRENDED EVEN WARMER WITH H7 TEMPS AT
00Z SUN...WITH THE GFS/NAM/ECM ALL SHOWING 6+ DEG C. THIS COMBINED
WITH DEEP SUBSIDENCE AND STRONG LLVL DOWNSLOPE SUGGESTS NEAR RECORD
HIGHS OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. DEFINITELY KEEPING FORECAST HIGHS A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE IN THIS PATTERN. ALSO CONTINUED TO TREND
LOWER FOR DEW POINTS ON SAT AFTERNOON AS GUIDANCE IS ALMOST ALWAYS
TOO MOIST IN THESE SCENARIOS. THE H85 CAG-CPR GRADIENT IS PROGGED AT
AROUND 45 METERS WITH A BROAD SWATH OF 30 TO 40 KT H7-H8 FLOW LIKELY
OVER THE CWA AT PEAK HEATING. GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY
DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER...SO EXPECT WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS. WILL ISSUE A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SATURDAY AFTN FOR THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN
WY AND THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE.

THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH AN
ENERGETIC...BUT FAST-MOVING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK
COLD FROPA ON SAT NIGHT. STILL NOT ENTIRELY SOLD ON PCPN CHANCES AS
NEITHER MODEL SHOWS MUCH FOR QPF. OVERALL 700-300 MILLIBAR MOISTURE
FIELDS ARE LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE AS WELL...SO ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED. EXPECT HIGHS WILL BE SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN SAT. STILL A FAIRLY MILD DAY THOUGH AS THE COLUMN SHOULD
WARM QUICKLY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AS PREVIOUS DAYS AS LLVL GRADIENTS WEAKEN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A GENERALLY A DRY PERIOD. THERE
ARE EARLY INDICATIONS FOR A FAST-MOVING STORM SYSTEM TO BRING A
ROUND OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BEFORE
THAT HAPPENS THOUGH...LLVL THERMAL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVR THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH 60S AND EVEN SOME
LOW 70S EXPECTED OVR LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE WRN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. WILL NO DOUBT HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AS THE DRY/BREEZY PRE-FRONTAL AIR
MASS SUGGESTS AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF FIRE SPREAD. BOTH THE
ECMWF/GFS ACCELERATE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS NRN WYOMING/SRN
MONTANA LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEMS PASSAGE TO THE
NORTH OF THE CWFA POINT TO PRIMARILY A WIND PRODUCER WITH LIKELY A
BORA WIND EVENT. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT
A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH
POST-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES THAT WILL RETURN TO THE 50S AND LOW 60S.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL DROP THRU THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVES TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE THURSDAY THRU
FRIDAY AS THE COLDER AIR MASS FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. IF
CURRENT TEMPERATURE PROGS HOLD...THE INITIAL PRECIP WOULD BE
RAIN...WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BACK TO MORE NORMAL VALUES ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE PERIOD AS BKN050-100 CLOUD
DECK EARLY GRADUALLY LIFTING TO CIRRUS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN GUSTY 16-02Z TODAY WITH GUSTS
OF 25-30 KNOTS LIKELY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST TODAY WITH WARMER TEMPS
AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. RAPID FIRE GROWTH COULD
OCCUR IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...BUT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HUMIDITIES
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PERCENT
WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THOSE AREAS. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD LIMIT LINGERING
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR WYZ301-310.

NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NEZ311>313.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...CAH
FIRE WEATHER...CLH



000
FXUS65 KCYS 270937
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
337 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. 09Z OBJECTIVE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALED A
110 KT UPPER JET EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS INTO NEB. WE ARE
STILL SEEING SOME ENHANCEMENT ON INFRARED SAT IMAGERY AND WEAK RADAR
ECHOS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE JET. BELIEVE MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
NOT EVEN REACHING THE GROUND...BUT A FEW SFC OBS HAVE REPORTED LIGHT
RAIN FROM TIME TO TIME. WILL KEEP LOWER END POPS GOING THROUGH THE
PRE DAWN HOURS...BUT EXPECT PCPN CHANCES TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS EAST. NOT
MUCH ELSE TO SPEAK OF IN THE NEAR TERM. WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
TODAY AS HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGING BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY WITH GOOD WEST-TO-EAST PRESSURE
GRADIENTS IN PLACE AND 30 KT FLOW AT H75.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR SAT. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD WITH THERMAL PROFILES WARMING QUITE RAPIDLY
INTO THE AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE TRENDED EVEN WARMER WITH H7 TEMPS AT
00Z SUN...WITH THE GFS/NAM/ECM ALL SHOWING 6+ DEG C. THIS COMBINED
WITH DEEP SUBSIDENCE AND STRONG LLVL DOWNSLOPE SUGGESTS NEAR RECORD
HIGHS OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. DEFINITELY KEEPING FORECAST HIGHS A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE IN THIS PATTERN. ALSO CONTINUED TO TREND
LOWER FOR DEW POINTS ON SAT AFTERNOON AS GUIDANCE IS ALMOST ALWAYS
TOO MOIST IN THESE SCENARIOS. THE H85 CAG-CPR GRADIENT IS PROGGED AT
AROUND 45 METERS WITH A BROAD SWATH OF 30 TO 40 KT H7-H8 FLOW LIKELY
OVER THE CWA AT PEAK HEATING. GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY
DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER...SO EXPECT WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS. WILL ISSUE A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SATURDAY AFTN FOR THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN
WY AND THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE.

THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH AN
ENERGETIC...BUT FAST-MOVING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK
COLD FROPA ON SAT NIGHT. STILL NOT ENTIRELY SOLD ON PCPN CHANCES AS
NEITHER MODEL SHOWS MUCH FOR QPF. OVERALL 700-300 MILLIBAR MOISTURE
FIELDS ARE LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE AS WELL...SO ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED. EXPECT HIGHS WILL BE SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN SAT. STILL A FAIRLY MILD DAY THOUGH AS THE COLUMN SHOULD
WARM QUICKLY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AS PREVIOUS DAYS AS LLVL GRADIENTS WEAKEN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A GENERALLY A DRY PERIOD. THERE
ARE EARLY INDICATIONS FOR A FAST-MOVING STORM SYSTEM TO BRING A
ROUND OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BEFORE
THAT HAPPENS THOUGH...LLVL THERMAL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVR THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH 60S AND EVEN SOME
LOW 70S EXPECTED OVR LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE WRN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. WILL NO DOUBT HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AS THE DRY/BREEZY PRE-FRONTAL AIR
MASS SUGGESTS AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF FIRE SPREAD. BOTH THE
ECMWF/GFS ACCELERATE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS NRN WYOMING/SRN
MONTANA LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEMS PASSAGE TO THE
NORTH OF THE CWFA POINT TO PRIMARILY A WIND PRODUCER WITH LIKELY A
BORA WIND EVENT. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT
A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH
POST-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES THAT WILL RETURN TO THE 50S AND LOW 60S.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL DROP THRU THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVES TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE THURSDAY THRU
FRIDAY AS THE COLDER AIR MASS FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. IF
CURRENT TEMPERATURE PROGS HOLD...THE INITIAL PRECIP WOULD BE
RAIN...WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BACK TO MORE NORMAL VALUES ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE PERIOD AS BKN050-100 CLOUD
DECK EARLY GRADUALLY LIFTING TO CIRRUS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN GUSTY 16-02Z TODAY WITH GUSTS
OF 25-30 KNOTS LIKELY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST TODAY WITH WARMER TEMPS
AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. RAPID FIRE GROWTH COULD
OCCUR IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...BUT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HUMIDITIES
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PERCENT
WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THOSE AREAS. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD LIMIT LINGERING
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR WYZ301-310.

NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NEZ311>313.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...CAH
FIRE WEATHER...CLH




000
FXUS65 KCYS 270937
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
337 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. 09Z OBJECTIVE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALED A
110 KT UPPER JET EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS INTO NEB. WE ARE
STILL SEEING SOME ENHANCEMENT ON INFRARED SAT IMAGERY AND WEAK RADAR
ECHOS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE JET. BELIEVE MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
NOT EVEN REACHING THE GROUND...BUT A FEW SFC OBS HAVE REPORTED LIGHT
RAIN FROM TIME TO TIME. WILL KEEP LOWER END POPS GOING THROUGH THE
PRE DAWN HOURS...BUT EXPECT PCPN CHANCES TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS EAST. NOT
MUCH ELSE TO SPEAK OF IN THE NEAR TERM. WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
TODAY AS HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGING BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY WITH GOOD WEST-TO-EAST PRESSURE
GRADIENTS IN PLACE AND 30 KT FLOW AT H75.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR SAT. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD WITH THERMAL PROFILES WARMING QUITE RAPIDLY
INTO THE AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE TRENDED EVEN WARMER WITH H7 TEMPS AT
00Z SUN...WITH THE GFS/NAM/ECM ALL SHOWING 6+ DEG C. THIS COMBINED
WITH DEEP SUBSIDENCE AND STRONG LLVL DOWNSLOPE SUGGESTS NEAR RECORD
HIGHS OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. DEFINITELY KEEPING FORECAST HIGHS A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE IN THIS PATTERN. ALSO CONTINUED TO TREND
LOWER FOR DEW POINTS ON SAT AFTERNOON AS GUIDANCE IS ALMOST ALWAYS
TOO MOIST IN THESE SCENARIOS. THE H85 CAG-CPR GRADIENT IS PROGGED AT
AROUND 45 METERS WITH A BROAD SWATH OF 30 TO 40 KT H7-H8 FLOW LIKELY
OVER THE CWA AT PEAK HEATING. GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY
DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER...SO EXPECT WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS. WILL ISSUE A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SATURDAY AFTN FOR THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN
WY AND THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE.

THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH AN
ENERGETIC...BUT FAST-MOVING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK
COLD FROPA ON SAT NIGHT. STILL NOT ENTIRELY SOLD ON PCPN CHANCES AS
NEITHER MODEL SHOWS MUCH FOR QPF. OVERALL 700-300 MILLIBAR MOISTURE
FIELDS ARE LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE AS WELL...SO ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED. EXPECT HIGHS WILL BE SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN SAT. STILL A FAIRLY MILD DAY THOUGH AS THE COLUMN SHOULD
WARM QUICKLY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AS PREVIOUS DAYS AS LLVL GRADIENTS WEAKEN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A GENERALLY A DRY PERIOD. THERE
ARE EARLY INDICATIONS FOR A FAST-MOVING STORM SYSTEM TO BRING A
ROUND OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BEFORE
THAT HAPPENS THOUGH...LLVL THERMAL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVR THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH 60S AND EVEN SOME
LOW 70S EXPECTED OVR LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE WRN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. WILL NO DOUBT HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AS THE DRY/BREEZY PRE-FRONTAL AIR
MASS SUGGESTS AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF FIRE SPREAD. BOTH THE
ECMWF/GFS ACCELERATE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS NRN WYOMING/SRN
MONTANA LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEMS PASSAGE TO THE
NORTH OF THE CWFA POINT TO PRIMARILY A WIND PRODUCER WITH LIKELY A
BORA WIND EVENT. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT
A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH
POST-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES THAT WILL RETURN TO THE 50S AND LOW 60S.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL DROP THRU THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVES TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE THURSDAY THRU
FRIDAY AS THE COLDER AIR MASS FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. IF
CURRENT TEMPERATURE PROGS HOLD...THE INITIAL PRECIP WOULD BE
RAIN...WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BACK TO MORE NORMAL VALUES ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE PERIOD AS BKN050-100 CLOUD
DECK EARLY GRADUALLY LIFTING TO CIRRUS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN GUSTY 16-02Z TODAY WITH GUSTS
OF 25-30 KNOTS LIKELY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST TODAY WITH WARMER TEMPS
AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. RAPID FIRE GROWTH COULD
OCCUR IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...BUT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HUMIDITIES
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PERCENT
WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THOSE AREAS. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD LIMIT LINGERING
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR WYZ301-310.

NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NEZ311>313.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...CAH
FIRE WEATHER...CLH



000
FXUS65 KRIW 270911
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
311 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT HAS
BEEN BRINGING SOME GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THESE SHOULD
DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE A MAINLY QUIET WEATHER DAY
WITH SOME PASSING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
QUITE WARM WITH SOME LOCATIONS RISING INTO THE 70S.

THINGS GET A BIT MORE ACTIVE FOR SATURDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT WILL NOT
BE IN THE FORM OF MOISTURE. MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL
MOVE BY TO THE NORTH OVER MONTANA. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT THIS WOULD BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE
RULE. IT WILL BE IN FORM OF WIND. THE MODELS SHOW A 90 KNOT JET
STREAK APPROACHING THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE. THIS PUTS
MUCH OF THE STATE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUAD AND THEREFORE SOME
INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND DOWNWARD MOMENTUM.  700
MILLIBAR WINDS INCREASE TO 50 TO 60 KNOTS ACROSS THE FAVORED AREAS
OF THE ABSAROKAS AND CODY FOOTHILLS. IT IS BORDERLINE FOR HIGH WIND
THERE ON SATURDAY SO WE WILL LET THE DAY CREW MAKE THE CALL. ANOTHER
AREA OF CONCERN IS NORTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY WHICH IS FAVORED IN
NORTHWEST FLOW AFTER COLD FRONT PASSAGES. OF MORE CONCERN IN THE
RISK FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER. WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH CRITICAL FUELS...WE WILL HOIST A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ZONES WITH CRITICAL FUELS.
IT WILL BE QUITE WARM AS WELL WITH MANY LOWER ELEVATIONS AGAIN
SEEING HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S.

CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN CALM FOR SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY
AND RIDGING MOVES BACK ACROSS THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
SOMEWHAT BEHIND THE FRONT...AROUND 10 DEGREES FOR MANY AREAS BUT
THIS STILL PUTS MOST AREAS ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY UNDER A FLAT UPPER
RIDGE. A COMPACT...BUT STOUT UPPER LOW WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
EXTREME NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY...WITH THE ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD
FRONT SWEEPING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME CONVECTION ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHWEST...THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE EXTREME FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHERE FUELS ARE
CONSIDERED CRITICAL.

A COOLER AND MAINLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF THE
PACIFIC COLD FRONT. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...AS WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY...BUT COOLER CONDITIONS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER RH.

GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THURSDAY...THEN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT THEN EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY. THE CURRENT
PROJECTED TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WOULD GIVE THE AREA A BETTER CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION THAN EITHER SYSTEM ON SATURDAY OR TUESDAY. BOTH THE
00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS SHOW SOME UPSLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPING THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL BROAD BRUSH SLIGHT
VALLEY/CHANCE MOUNTAIN POPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR NOW...AS TIMING
AND CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL
OF BELOW AVERAGE ON THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.
GUSTY W-NW WINDS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE DIVIDE...VICINITY
KCOD-KDUB-KRIW...WILL MOSTLY DIMINISH BY 15Z.

WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WIND CORRIDOR...VICINITY 50SM NE
KRKS-KCPR...AND ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE DIVIDE AFTER 06Z
SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  THE COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

EXPECT ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY TODAY. HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY SO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
ON SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY MAY BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TO LOWER ELEVATION ZONES
WITH CRITICAL FUELS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FOR SUNDAY WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LESS WIND.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING WYZ280-281-283.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...AEM
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS







000
FXUS65 KRIW 270911
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
311 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT HAS
BEEN BRINGING SOME GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THESE SHOULD
DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE A MAINLY QUIET WEATHER DAY
WITH SOME PASSING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
QUITE WARM WITH SOME LOCATIONS RISING INTO THE 70S.

THINGS GET A BIT MORE ACTIVE FOR SATURDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT WILL NOT
BE IN THE FORM OF MOISTURE. MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL
MOVE BY TO THE NORTH OVER MONTANA. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT THIS WOULD BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE
RULE. IT WILL BE IN FORM OF WIND. THE MODELS SHOW A 90 KNOT JET
STREAK APPROACHING THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE. THIS PUTS
MUCH OF THE STATE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUAD AND THEREFORE SOME
INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND DOWNWARD MOMENTUM.  700
MILLIBAR WINDS INCREASE TO 50 TO 60 KNOTS ACROSS THE FAVORED AREAS
OF THE ABSAROKAS AND CODY FOOTHILLS. IT IS BORDERLINE FOR HIGH WIND
THERE ON SATURDAY SO WE WILL LET THE DAY CREW MAKE THE CALL. ANOTHER
AREA OF CONCERN IS NORTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY WHICH IS FAVORED IN
NORTHWEST FLOW AFTER COLD FRONT PASSAGES. OF MORE CONCERN IN THE
RISK FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER. WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH CRITICAL FUELS...WE WILL HOIST A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ZONES WITH CRITICAL FUELS.
IT WILL BE QUITE WARM AS WELL WITH MANY LOWER ELEVATIONS AGAIN
SEEING HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S.

CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN CALM FOR SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY
AND RIDGING MOVES BACK ACROSS THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
SOMEWHAT BEHIND THE FRONT...AROUND 10 DEGREES FOR MANY AREAS BUT
THIS STILL PUTS MOST AREAS ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY UNDER A FLAT UPPER
RIDGE. A COMPACT...BUT STOUT UPPER LOW WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
EXTREME NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY...WITH THE ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD
FRONT SWEEPING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME CONVECTION ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHWEST...THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE EXTREME FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHERE FUELS ARE
CONSIDERED CRITICAL.

A COOLER AND MAINLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF THE
PACIFIC COLD FRONT. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...AS WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY...BUT COOLER CONDITIONS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER RH.

GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THURSDAY...THEN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT THEN EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY. THE CURRENT
PROJECTED TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WOULD GIVE THE AREA A BETTER CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION THAN EITHER SYSTEM ON SATURDAY OR TUESDAY. BOTH THE
00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS SHOW SOME UPSLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPING THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL BROAD BRUSH SLIGHT
VALLEY/CHANCE MOUNTAIN POPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR NOW...AS TIMING
AND CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL
OF BELOW AVERAGE ON THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.
GUSTY W-NW WINDS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE DIVIDE...VICINITY
KCOD-KDUB-KRIW...WILL MOSTLY DIMINISH BY 15Z.

WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WIND CORRIDOR...VICINITY 50SM NE
KRKS-KCPR...AND ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE DIVIDE AFTER 06Z
SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  THE COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

EXPECT ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY TODAY. HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY SO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
ON SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY MAY BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TO LOWER ELEVATION ZONES
WITH CRITICAL FUELS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FOR SUNDAY WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LESS WIND.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING WYZ280-281-283.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...AEM
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS








000
FXUS63 KUNR 270850
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
250 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST IN THE PERIOD
SUPPORTING MUCH WARMER WEATHER OVER THE REGION. LL BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND ASSOCIATED PASSING IMPULSES AND ENSUING LIGHT PRECIP...WILL
SHIFT EAST AND WANE THIS MORNING...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY. COMPACT BUT STRONG PAC UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SHIFT QUICKLY EAST TONIGHT THROUGH SAT...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION SAT NIGHT...SUPPORTING VERY WINDY
CONDS AND CHANCES FOR SHRA.

TODAY...LL FGEN AND ASSOCIATED FORCING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN FA THIS MORNING. WEAK FORCING AND DRY LL PROFILES WILL
SUPPORT ONLY LIGHT PRECIP...MAINLY FLURRIES. SFC WARM FRONT WILL
SHIFT EAST WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
PASSING UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE/LINGERING PAC MOISTURE/AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW INSTABILITY SHRA ACROSS THE BH
AND SE. HAVE INCLUDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDS EXPECTED MOST PLACES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 60S.

SAT...SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED THERMAL RIDGE WILL PASS OVER
THE FA...WITH INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY
WARM DAY WITH 70S MOST AREAS AND A FEW 80S IN THE LEE OF THE BH/S.
UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION SAT
EVENING. LIMITED...BUT SUFFICIENT LL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW
SCT-ISOLD SHRA WITH POSSIBLY A TS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH CLOSER TO THE
BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT EARLY EVENING. BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHRA/ISOLD TS WILL DEVELOP LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE MAIN LOBE OF
LSA WILL ADV ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE UPPER WAVE...WHICH WILL
TAKE MOST OF IT/S ASSOCIATED LSA/UVM ACROSS ND. LIMITED POPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE FA GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE/FORCING. THE BIGGEST
IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WINDS. STRONG PRESSURE RISE COUPLET
COUPLED WITH CAA/STEEP LL LAPSE RATES/AND POTENTIAL SHOWER OUTFLOW
WILL SUPPORT VERY STRONG GUSTY NW WINDS ALONG THE SFC FRONT. WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH LOOK POSSIBLE...ESP ACROSS NW SD AND IN
THE LEE OF THE BH/S. HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS UP.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF WILL SLIDE
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROF CLIPPING
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS UPPER
DISTURBANCE...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOMING VERY
BREEZY. UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO NORTHWEST FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH MODELS SHOWING A FEW MORE WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AFTER THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TODAY WITH A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES MOVING THROUGH THE BLACK HILLS AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

WARM TEMPERATURES WITH DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT
POTENTIAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
NE WY AND SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF
15 TO 20 PERCENT WITH WESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN LOWER RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL SUPPORT EVEN STRONGER WINDS SATURDAY EVENING...ALONG WITH A
WIND SHIFT. WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 60 MPH WITH THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST WYOMING SATURDAY EVENING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH RESPECT TO THE DEGREE OF WIND SPEEDS AS WELL AS MINIMUM RH.
GIVEN THESE CONCERNS...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR SDZ262>264.

WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR WYZ259-297-298.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15
FIRE WEATHER...JC







000
FXUS63 KUNR 270850
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
250 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST IN THE PERIOD
SUPPORTING MUCH WARMER WEATHER OVER THE REGION. LL BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND ASSOCIATED PASSING IMPULSES AND ENSUING LIGHT PRECIP...WILL
SHIFT EAST AND WANE THIS MORNING...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY. COMPACT BUT STRONG PAC UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SHIFT QUICKLY EAST TONIGHT THROUGH SAT...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION SAT NIGHT...SUPPORTING VERY WINDY
CONDS AND CHANCES FOR SHRA.

TODAY...LL FGEN AND ASSOCIATED FORCING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN FA THIS MORNING. WEAK FORCING AND DRY LL PROFILES WILL
SUPPORT ONLY LIGHT PRECIP...MAINLY FLURRIES. SFC WARM FRONT WILL
SHIFT EAST WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
PASSING UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE/LINGERING PAC MOISTURE/AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW INSTABILITY SHRA ACROSS THE BH
AND SE. HAVE INCLUDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDS EXPECTED MOST PLACES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 60S.

SAT...SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED THERMAL RIDGE WILL PASS OVER
THE FA...WITH INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY
WARM DAY WITH 70S MOST AREAS AND A FEW 80S IN THE LEE OF THE BH/S.
UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION SAT
EVENING. LIMITED...BUT SUFFICIENT LL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW
SCT-ISOLD SHRA WITH POSSIBLY A TS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH CLOSER TO THE
BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT EARLY EVENING. BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHRA/ISOLD TS WILL DEVELOP LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE MAIN LOBE OF
LSA WILL ADV ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE UPPER WAVE...WHICH WILL
TAKE MOST OF IT/S ASSOCIATED LSA/UVM ACROSS ND. LIMITED POPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE FA GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE/FORCING. THE BIGGEST
IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WINDS. STRONG PRESSURE RISE COUPLET
COUPLED WITH CAA/STEEP LL LAPSE RATES/AND POTENTIAL SHOWER OUTFLOW
WILL SUPPORT VERY STRONG GUSTY NW WINDS ALONG THE SFC FRONT. WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH LOOK POSSIBLE...ESP ACROSS NW SD AND IN
THE LEE OF THE BH/S. HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS UP.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF WILL SLIDE
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROF CLIPPING
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS UPPER
DISTURBANCE...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOMING VERY
BREEZY. UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO NORTHWEST FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH MODELS SHOWING A FEW MORE WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AFTER THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TODAY WITH A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES MOVING THROUGH THE BLACK HILLS AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

WARM TEMPERATURES WITH DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT
POTENTIAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
NE WY AND SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF
15 TO 20 PERCENT WITH WESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN LOWER RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL SUPPORT EVEN STRONGER WINDS SATURDAY EVENING...ALONG WITH A
WIND SHIFT. WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 60 MPH WITH THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST WYOMING SATURDAY EVENING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH RESPECT TO THE DEGREE OF WIND SPEEDS AS WELL AS MINIMUM RH.
GIVEN THESE CONCERNS...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR SDZ262>264.

WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR WYZ259-297-298.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15
FIRE WEATHER...JC






000
FXUS63 KUNR 270522
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1122 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
CENTRAL MT INTO CENTRAL NE. LEFTOVER SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS AND DOWNSTREAM CONVERGENCE AREA NEAR THE
PINE RIDGE. THIS IS IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING SOUTHEAST
INTO THE MIDWEST. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOTED OVER CENTRAL
BC/SK...WHICH WILL SWIFTLY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT
BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF -SHRASN TO THE CWA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS WHERE
SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE BETWEEN 06Z-15Z FRIDAY AND THEN
OVER NORTHWEST SD WHERE BEST FORCING OCCUR ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE TONIGHT.

FRIDAY...LEFTOVER MORNING SHOWERS WILL END AS THE FRONT SHIFTS EAST
AS A WARM FRONT WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED AT TIMES BY AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXES OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE...EXCEPT PERHAPS
SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THE FAR EAST NEAREST PRECIPITATION THAT FELL
TODAY. QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

A VERY WARM START TO THE WEEKEND AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE PASSES OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHWEST SD IF
WINDS INCREASE ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH WILL
BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. MODELS ARE STILL
RESOLVING TIMING ISSUES WITH THE WAVE CROSSING THE NRN PLAINS.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 1120 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AREA
WHERE LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES ALONG WITH SNOW ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW AND MVFR CONDITIONS. GUSTY
NW WINDS WILL RETURN FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...10






000
FXUS63 KUNR 270522
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1122 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
CENTRAL MT INTO CENTRAL NE. LEFTOVER SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS AND DOWNSTREAM CONVERGENCE AREA NEAR THE
PINE RIDGE. THIS IS IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING SOUTHEAST
INTO THE MIDWEST. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOTED OVER CENTRAL
BC/SK...WHICH WILL SWIFTLY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT
BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF -SHRASN TO THE CWA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS WHERE
SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE BETWEEN 06Z-15Z FRIDAY AND THEN
OVER NORTHWEST SD WHERE BEST FORCING OCCUR ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE TONIGHT.

FRIDAY...LEFTOVER MORNING SHOWERS WILL END AS THE FRONT SHIFTS EAST
AS A WARM FRONT WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED AT TIMES BY AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXES OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE...EXCEPT PERHAPS
SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THE FAR EAST NEAREST PRECIPITATION THAT FELL
TODAY. QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

A VERY WARM START TO THE WEEKEND AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE PASSES OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHWEST SD IF
WINDS INCREASE ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH WILL
BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. MODELS ARE STILL
RESOLVING TIMING ISSUES WITH THE WAVE CROSSING THE NRN PLAINS.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 1120 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AREA
WHERE LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES ALONG WITH SNOW ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW AND MVFR CONDITIONS. GUSTY
NW WINDS WILL RETURN FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...10







000
FXUS63 KUNR 270522
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1122 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
CENTRAL MT INTO CENTRAL NE. LEFTOVER SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS AND DOWNSTREAM CONVERGENCE AREA NEAR THE
PINE RIDGE. THIS IS IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING SOUTHEAST
INTO THE MIDWEST. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOTED OVER CENTRAL
BC/SK...WHICH WILL SWIFTLY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT
BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF -SHRASN TO THE CWA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS WHERE
SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE BETWEEN 06Z-15Z FRIDAY AND THEN
OVER NORTHWEST SD WHERE BEST FORCING OCCUR ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE TONIGHT.

FRIDAY...LEFTOVER MORNING SHOWERS WILL END AS THE FRONT SHIFTS EAST
AS A WARM FRONT WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED AT TIMES BY AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXES OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE...EXCEPT PERHAPS
SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THE FAR EAST NEAREST PRECIPITATION THAT FELL
TODAY. QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

A VERY WARM START TO THE WEEKEND AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE PASSES OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHWEST SD IF
WINDS INCREASE ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH WILL
BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. MODELS ARE STILL
RESOLVING TIMING ISSUES WITH THE WAVE CROSSING THE NRN PLAINS.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 1120 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AREA
WHERE LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES ALONG WITH SNOW ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW AND MVFR CONDITIONS. GUSTY
NW WINDS WILL RETURN FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...10







000
FXUS63 KUNR 270522
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1122 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
CENTRAL MT INTO CENTRAL NE. LEFTOVER SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS AND DOWNSTREAM CONVERGENCE AREA NEAR THE
PINE RIDGE. THIS IS IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING SOUTHEAST
INTO THE MIDWEST. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOTED OVER CENTRAL
BC/SK...WHICH WILL SWIFTLY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT
BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF -SHRASN TO THE CWA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS WHERE
SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE BETWEEN 06Z-15Z FRIDAY AND THEN
OVER NORTHWEST SD WHERE BEST FORCING OCCUR ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE TONIGHT.

FRIDAY...LEFTOVER MORNING SHOWERS WILL END AS THE FRONT SHIFTS EAST
AS A WARM FRONT WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED AT TIMES BY AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXES OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE...EXCEPT PERHAPS
SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THE FAR EAST NEAREST PRECIPITATION THAT FELL
TODAY. QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

A VERY WARM START TO THE WEEKEND AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE PASSES OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHWEST SD IF
WINDS INCREASE ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH WILL
BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. MODELS ARE STILL
RESOLVING TIMING ISSUES WITH THE WAVE CROSSING THE NRN PLAINS.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 1120 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AREA
WHERE LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES ALONG WITH SNOW ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW AND MVFR CONDITIONS. GUSTY
NW WINDS WILL RETURN FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...10







000
FXUS63 KUNR 270522
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1122 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
CENTRAL MT INTO CENTRAL NE. LEFTOVER SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS AND DOWNSTREAM CONVERGENCE AREA NEAR THE
PINE RIDGE. THIS IS IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING SOUTHEAST
INTO THE MIDWEST. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOTED OVER CENTRAL
BC/SK...WHICH WILL SWIFTLY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT
BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF -SHRASN TO THE CWA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS WHERE
SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE BETWEEN 06Z-15Z FRIDAY AND THEN
OVER NORTHWEST SD WHERE BEST FORCING OCCUR ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE TONIGHT.

FRIDAY...LEFTOVER MORNING SHOWERS WILL END AS THE FRONT SHIFTS EAST
AS A WARM FRONT WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED AT TIMES BY AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXES OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE...EXCEPT PERHAPS
SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THE FAR EAST NEAREST PRECIPITATION THAT FELL
TODAY. QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

A VERY WARM START TO THE WEEKEND AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE PASSES OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHWEST SD IF
WINDS INCREASE ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH WILL
BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. MODELS ARE STILL
RESOLVING TIMING ISSUES WITH THE WAVE CROSSING THE NRN PLAINS.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 1120 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AREA
WHERE LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES ALONG WITH SNOW ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW AND MVFR CONDITIONS. GUSTY
NW WINDS WILL RETURN FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...10







000
FXUS63 KUNR 270522
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1122 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
CENTRAL MT INTO CENTRAL NE. LEFTOVER SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS AND DOWNSTREAM CONVERGENCE AREA NEAR THE
PINE RIDGE. THIS IS IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING SOUTHEAST
INTO THE MIDWEST. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOTED OVER CENTRAL
BC/SK...WHICH WILL SWIFTLY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT
BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF -SHRASN TO THE CWA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS WHERE
SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE BETWEEN 06Z-15Z FRIDAY AND THEN
OVER NORTHWEST SD WHERE BEST FORCING OCCUR ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE TONIGHT.

FRIDAY...LEFTOVER MORNING SHOWERS WILL END AS THE FRONT SHIFTS EAST
AS A WARM FRONT WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED AT TIMES BY AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXES OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE...EXCEPT PERHAPS
SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THE FAR EAST NEAREST PRECIPITATION THAT FELL
TODAY. QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

A VERY WARM START TO THE WEEKEND AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE PASSES OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHWEST SD IF
WINDS INCREASE ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH WILL
BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. MODELS ARE STILL
RESOLVING TIMING ISSUES WITH THE WAVE CROSSING THE NRN PLAINS.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 1120 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AREA
WHERE LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES ALONG WITH SNOW ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW AND MVFR CONDITIONS. GUSTY
NW WINDS WILL RETURN FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...10







000
FXUS63 KUNR 270522
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1122 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
CENTRAL MT INTO CENTRAL NE. LEFTOVER SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS AND DOWNSTREAM CONVERGENCE AREA NEAR THE
PINE RIDGE. THIS IS IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING SOUTHEAST
INTO THE MIDWEST. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOTED OVER CENTRAL
BC/SK...WHICH WILL SWIFTLY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT
BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF -SHRASN TO THE CWA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS WHERE
SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE BETWEEN 06Z-15Z FRIDAY AND THEN
OVER NORTHWEST SD WHERE BEST FORCING OCCUR ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE TONIGHT.

FRIDAY...LEFTOVER MORNING SHOWERS WILL END AS THE FRONT SHIFTS EAST
AS A WARM FRONT WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED AT TIMES BY AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXES OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE...EXCEPT PERHAPS
SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THE FAR EAST NEAREST PRECIPITATION THAT FELL
TODAY. QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

A VERY WARM START TO THE WEEKEND AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE PASSES OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHWEST SD IF
WINDS INCREASE ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH WILL
BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. MODELS ARE STILL
RESOLVING TIMING ISSUES WITH THE WAVE CROSSING THE NRN PLAINS.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 1120 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AREA
WHERE LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES ALONG WITH SNOW ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW AND MVFR CONDITIONS. GUSTY
NW WINDS WILL RETURN FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...10







000
FXUS63 KUNR 270522
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1122 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
CENTRAL MT INTO CENTRAL NE. LEFTOVER SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS AND DOWNSTREAM CONVERGENCE AREA NEAR THE
PINE RIDGE. THIS IS IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING SOUTHEAST
INTO THE MIDWEST. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOTED OVER CENTRAL
BC/SK...WHICH WILL SWIFTLY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT
BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF -SHRASN TO THE CWA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS WHERE
SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE BETWEEN 06Z-15Z FRIDAY AND THEN
OVER NORTHWEST SD WHERE BEST FORCING OCCUR ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE TONIGHT.

FRIDAY...LEFTOVER MORNING SHOWERS WILL END AS THE FRONT SHIFTS EAST
AS A WARM FRONT WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED AT TIMES BY AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXES OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE...EXCEPT PERHAPS
SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THE FAR EAST NEAREST PRECIPITATION THAT FELL
TODAY. QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

A VERY WARM START TO THE WEEKEND AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE PASSES OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHWEST SD IF
WINDS INCREASE ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH WILL
BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. MODELS ARE STILL
RESOLVING TIMING ISSUES WITH THE WAVE CROSSING THE NRN PLAINS.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 1120 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AREA
WHERE LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES ALONG WITH SNOW ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW AND MVFR CONDITIONS. GUSTY
NW WINDS WILL RETURN FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...10







000
FXUS63 KUNR 270522
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1122 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
CENTRAL MT INTO CENTRAL NE. LEFTOVER SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS AND DOWNSTREAM CONVERGENCE AREA NEAR THE
PINE RIDGE. THIS IS IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING SOUTHEAST
INTO THE MIDWEST. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOTED OVER CENTRAL
BC/SK...WHICH WILL SWIFTLY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT
BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF -SHRASN TO THE CWA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS WHERE
SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE BETWEEN 06Z-15Z FRIDAY AND THEN
OVER NORTHWEST SD WHERE BEST FORCING OCCUR ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE TONIGHT.

FRIDAY...LEFTOVER MORNING SHOWERS WILL END AS THE FRONT SHIFTS EAST
AS A WARM FRONT WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED AT TIMES BY AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXES OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE...EXCEPT PERHAPS
SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THE FAR EAST NEAREST PRECIPITATION THAT FELL
TODAY. QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

A VERY WARM START TO THE WEEKEND AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE PASSES OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHWEST SD IF
WINDS INCREASE ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH WILL
BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. MODELS ARE STILL
RESOLVING TIMING ISSUES WITH THE WAVE CROSSING THE NRN PLAINS.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 1120 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AREA
WHERE LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES ALONG WITH SNOW ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW AND MVFR CONDITIONS. GUSTY
NW WINDS WILL RETURN FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...10







000
FXUS63 KUNR 270522
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1122 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
CENTRAL MT INTO CENTRAL NE. LEFTOVER SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS AND DOWNSTREAM CONVERGENCE AREA NEAR THE
PINE RIDGE. THIS IS IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING SOUTHEAST
INTO THE MIDWEST. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOTED OVER CENTRAL
BC/SK...WHICH WILL SWIFTLY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT
BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF -SHRASN TO THE CWA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS WHERE
SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE BETWEEN 06Z-15Z FRIDAY AND THEN
OVER NORTHWEST SD WHERE BEST FORCING OCCUR ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE TONIGHT.

FRIDAY...LEFTOVER MORNING SHOWERS WILL END AS THE FRONT SHIFTS EAST
AS A WARM FRONT WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED AT TIMES BY AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXES OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE...EXCEPT PERHAPS
SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THE FAR EAST NEAREST PRECIPITATION THAT FELL
TODAY. QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

A VERY WARM START TO THE WEEKEND AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE PASSES OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHWEST SD IF
WINDS INCREASE ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH WILL
BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. MODELS ARE STILL
RESOLVING TIMING ISSUES WITH THE WAVE CROSSING THE NRN PLAINS.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 1120 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AREA
WHERE LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES ALONG WITH SNOW ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW AND MVFR CONDITIONS. GUSTY
NW WINDS WILL RETURN FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...10







000
FXUS65 KRIW 270520
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1120 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

UPDATE...ADDED 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY (ISSUED AT 352 PM MDT)

RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
CLOUDINESS GRADUALLY DECREASING TONIGHT LEAVING ALL BUT THE NE
CORNER SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY ON FRIDAY. A FEW FLURRIES WERE NOTED
OVER THE HIGHER NRN MTNS THIS MORNING BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. FRIDAY
WILL BE ANOTHER 8-10 DEGREES WARMER FOR MANY AREAS. BREEZY TO WINDY
NW WIND AREAS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE DECREASING.
THE CODY FOOTHILLS ARE SHOWING A LITTLE MTN WAVE ACTION AND MODEST
GAP FLOW POTENTIAL SO BEEFED UP THE WINDS IN THE FAVORED AREAS
TONIGHT BUT DOES NOT LOOK MORE THAN WINDY IN THE NORMAL AREAS.
SOME BREEZES RETURN FRIDAY IN THE W-NW FAVORED FLOW AREAS BUT LESS
THAN TODAY. OTHERWISE...JUST WARMER...DRIER WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND
OVERALL LESS WIND.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

A DRY AND MILD WEST NORTHWEST FLOW DURING THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE
DEFINING FEATURE OF THE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST
WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OFF THE PACIFIC AT 145W WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AS A DRY WINDY TROUGH. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THIS EVENT CLOSELY AS THE LAST TROUGH THAT RESEMBLED THIS
ONE FIRST APPEARED IN THE MODELS AS IF THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WOULD
REMAIN ABOVE 15 PERCENT WHERE THE FUELS ARE ALREADY CRITICAL BIT
WOUND UP APPROACHING 10 PERCENT WHEN THE DAY OF CONCERNED ACTUALLY
ARRIVED ONE WEEK PRIOR TO THIS EVENT. MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE WINDS WILL CERTAINLY BE WITHIN CRITERIA FROM RKS TO CPR AND EVEN
AT RIW ON SATURDAY. EVEN AFTER THE ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COOL FRONT
TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...NW WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS MOST AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE GIVEN THE 3 HOURLY
10MB POST FRONTAL SFC PRESSURE RISES BUT THE RH SHOULD INCREASE
WITH THESE WINDS. AS FAR AS ANY PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE IS
CONCERNED...ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS OF A ROUGE T SHOWER COULD OCCUR
OVER THE NW MTNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH MEAGER MOISTURE AND
NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES. THEN THE WEST NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES
WITH THE NEXT WEAK RIPPLE IN THE FLOW EXPECTED SUNDAY AND AGAIN
MONDAY WITHOUT MUCH FANFARE. THE NEXT TROUGH OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE
WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY IN THE FORM OF MORE DRY WINDY WEATHER.
HOWEVER...THE NW MTNS COULD AGAIN SEE ISOLD SHOWERS FROM NEGATIVE
LIFTED INDICES AND SUFFICIENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. THEN
THURSDAY IS THE DAY THAT THE GFS AND THE EURO DIVERGE WITH THE GFS
INDICATING ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS WY ALONG WITH
A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION FORMING RIGHT OVER THE CENTER
OF WY ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD OF WY. THE
EURO SHOWS NOTHING...JUST A STRAIGHT WEST NORTHWEST FLOW. KEPT
POPS AS IS FOR NOW. DID NOT WANT TO RAISE THU POPS BECAUSE OF
REMAINING MODEL UNCERTAINTY AND NONE OF OUR NEIGHBORS HAVE
INCREASED THEIR POPS EITHER.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.
BKN CIGS FL120-130 VCNTY AND EAST OF A KSHR-KCPR LINE SHOULD BE EAST
OF THE AREA BY 12Z...LEAVING SKC-SCT250 ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD.  GUSTY W-NW WINDS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
DIVIDE...VCNTY KCOD-KDUB-KRIW...WILL MOSTLY DIMINISH BY 15Z.

WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WIND CORRIDOR...VCNTY 50SM NE
KRKS-KCPR...AND ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE DIVIDE AFTER 06Z
SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  THE COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.




&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST WITH DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS. FRIDAY WILL BE ABOUT
8-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. WITH MIN RH`S EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND
IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...LOWERING INTO THE 20S WITH LOCAL MIN
RH`S IN THE UPPER TEENS. THE NORTHWEST WILL BE MORE MOIST WITH MIN
RH`S IN THE 30S AND 40S. GUSTY W-NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
EAST SLOPE OF MOST OF THE MOUNTAIN RANGES THROUGH FRIDAY. THE CODY
FOOTHILLS WILL ALSO SEE SOME GUSTY TO BRIEF STRONG WEST WINDS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN FROM KBPI AND KPNA TO
KRKS WILL ALSO SEE GUSTY W-NW WIND THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
DECREASING SOME. MORE WIND WILL RETURN FRIDAY BUT NOT AS STRONG AS
TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

A MORE ELEVATED FIRE RISK WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY EAST OF THE DIVIDE
DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES...MIN RH`S IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
AND INCREASING WEST WIND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PS
LONG TERM...LIPSON
AVIATION...AEM
FIRE WEATHER...PS











000
FXUS65 KRIW 270520
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1120 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

UPDATE...ADDED 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY (ISSUED AT 352 PM MDT)

RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
CLOUDINESS GRADUALLY DECREASING TONIGHT LEAVING ALL BUT THE NE
CORNER SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY ON FRIDAY. A FEW FLURRIES WERE NOTED
OVER THE HIGHER NRN MTNS THIS MORNING BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. FRIDAY
WILL BE ANOTHER 8-10 DEGREES WARMER FOR MANY AREAS. BREEZY TO WINDY
NW WIND AREAS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE DECREASING.
THE CODY FOOTHILLS ARE SHOWING A LITTLE MTN WAVE ACTION AND MODEST
GAP FLOW POTENTIAL SO BEEFED UP THE WINDS IN THE FAVORED AREAS
TONIGHT BUT DOES NOT LOOK MORE THAN WINDY IN THE NORMAL AREAS.
SOME BREEZES RETURN FRIDAY IN THE W-NW FAVORED FLOW AREAS BUT LESS
THAN TODAY. OTHERWISE...JUST WARMER...DRIER WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND
OVERALL LESS WIND.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

A DRY AND MILD WEST NORTHWEST FLOW DURING THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE
DEFINING FEATURE OF THE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST
WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OFF THE PACIFIC AT 145W WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AS A DRY WINDY TROUGH. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THIS EVENT CLOSELY AS THE LAST TROUGH THAT RESEMBLED THIS
ONE FIRST APPEARED IN THE MODELS AS IF THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WOULD
REMAIN ABOVE 15 PERCENT WHERE THE FUELS ARE ALREADY CRITICAL BIT
WOUND UP APPROACHING 10 PERCENT WHEN THE DAY OF CONCERNED ACTUALLY
ARRIVED ONE WEEK PRIOR TO THIS EVENT. MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE WINDS WILL CERTAINLY BE WITHIN CRITERIA FROM RKS TO CPR AND EVEN
AT RIW ON SATURDAY. EVEN AFTER THE ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COOL FRONT
TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...NW WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS MOST AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE GIVEN THE 3 HOURLY
10MB POST FRONTAL SFC PRESSURE RISES BUT THE RH SHOULD INCREASE
WITH THESE WINDS. AS FAR AS ANY PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE IS
CONCERNED...ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS OF A ROUGE T SHOWER COULD OCCUR
OVER THE NW MTNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH MEAGER MOISTURE AND
NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES. THEN THE WEST NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES
WITH THE NEXT WEAK RIPPLE IN THE FLOW EXPECTED SUNDAY AND AGAIN
MONDAY WITHOUT MUCH FANFARE. THE NEXT TROUGH OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE
WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY IN THE FORM OF MORE DRY WINDY WEATHER.
HOWEVER...THE NW MTNS COULD AGAIN SEE ISOLD SHOWERS FROM NEGATIVE
LIFTED INDICES AND SUFFICIENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. THEN
THURSDAY IS THE DAY THAT THE GFS AND THE EURO DIVERGE WITH THE GFS
INDICATING ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS WY ALONG WITH
A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION FORMING RIGHT OVER THE CENTER
OF WY ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD OF WY. THE
EURO SHOWS NOTHING...JUST A STRAIGHT WEST NORTHWEST FLOW. KEPT
POPS AS IS FOR NOW. DID NOT WANT TO RAISE THU POPS BECAUSE OF
REMAINING MODEL UNCERTAINTY AND NONE OF OUR NEIGHBORS HAVE
INCREASED THEIR POPS EITHER.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.
BKN CIGS FL120-130 VCNTY AND EAST OF A KSHR-KCPR LINE SHOULD BE EAST
OF THE AREA BY 12Z...LEAVING SKC-SCT250 ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD.  GUSTY W-NW WINDS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
DIVIDE...VCNTY KCOD-KDUB-KRIW...WILL MOSTLY DIMINISH BY 15Z.

WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WIND CORRIDOR...VCNTY 50SM NE
KRKS-KCPR...AND ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE DIVIDE AFTER 06Z
SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  THE COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.




&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST WITH DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS. FRIDAY WILL BE ABOUT
8-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. WITH MIN RH`S EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND
IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...LOWERING INTO THE 20S WITH LOCAL MIN
RH`S IN THE UPPER TEENS. THE NORTHWEST WILL BE MORE MOIST WITH MIN
RH`S IN THE 30S AND 40S. GUSTY W-NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
EAST SLOPE OF MOST OF THE MOUNTAIN RANGES THROUGH FRIDAY. THE CODY
FOOTHILLS WILL ALSO SEE SOME GUSTY TO BRIEF STRONG WEST WINDS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN FROM KBPI AND KPNA TO
KRKS WILL ALSO SEE GUSTY W-NW WIND THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
DECREASING SOME. MORE WIND WILL RETURN FRIDAY BUT NOT AS STRONG AS
TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

A MORE ELEVATED FIRE RISK WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY EAST OF THE DIVIDE
DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES...MIN RH`S IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
AND INCREASING WEST WIND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PS
LONG TERM...LIPSON
AVIATION...AEM
FIRE WEATHER...PS










000
FXUS65 KRIW 270520
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1120 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

UPDATE...ADDED 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY (ISSUED AT 352 PM MDT)

RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
CLOUDINESS GRADUALLY DECREASING TONIGHT LEAVING ALL BUT THE NE
CORNER SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY ON FRIDAY. A FEW FLURRIES WERE NOTED
OVER THE HIGHER NRN MTNS THIS MORNING BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. FRIDAY
WILL BE ANOTHER 8-10 DEGREES WARMER FOR MANY AREAS. BREEZY TO WINDY
NW WIND AREAS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE DECREASING.
THE CODY FOOTHILLS ARE SHOWING A LITTLE MTN WAVE ACTION AND MODEST
GAP FLOW POTENTIAL SO BEEFED UP THE WINDS IN THE FAVORED AREAS
TONIGHT BUT DOES NOT LOOK MORE THAN WINDY IN THE NORMAL AREAS.
SOME BREEZES RETURN FRIDAY IN THE W-NW FAVORED FLOW AREAS BUT LESS
THAN TODAY. OTHERWISE...JUST WARMER...DRIER WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND
OVERALL LESS WIND.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

A DRY AND MILD WEST NORTHWEST FLOW DURING THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE
DEFINING FEATURE OF THE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST
WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OFF THE PACIFIC AT 145W WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AS A DRY WINDY TROUGH. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THIS EVENT CLOSELY AS THE LAST TROUGH THAT RESEMBLED THIS
ONE FIRST APPEARED IN THE MODELS AS IF THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WOULD
REMAIN ABOVE 15 PERCENT WHERE THE FUELS ARE ALREADY CRITICAL BIT
WOUND UP APPROACHING 10 PERCENT WHEN THE DAY OF CONCERNED ACTUALLY
ARRIVED ONE WEEK PRIOR TO THIS EVENT. MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE WINDS WILL CERTAINLY BE WITHIN CRITERIA FROM RKS TO CPR AND EVEN
AT RIW ON SATURDAY. EVEN AFTER THE ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COOL FRONT
TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...NW WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS MOST AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE GIVEN THE 3 HOURLY
10MB POST FRONTAL SFC PRESSURE RISES BUT THE RH SHOULD INCREASE
WITH THESE WINDS. AS FAR AS ANY PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE IS
CONCERNED...ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS OF A ROUGE T SHOWER COULD OCCUR
OVER THE NW MTNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH MEAGER MOISTURE AND
NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES. THEN THE WEST NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES
WITH THE NEXT WEAK RIPPLE IN THE FLOW EXPECTED SUNDAY AND AGAIN
MONDAY WITHOUT MUCH FANFARE. THE NEXT TROUGH OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE
WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY IN THE FORM OF MORE DRY WINDY WEATHER.
HOWEVER...THE NW MTNS COULD AGAIN SEE ISOLD SHOWERS FROM NEGATIVE
LIFTED INDICES AND SUFFICIENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. THEN
THURSDAY IS THE DAY THAT THE GFS AND THE EURO DIVERGE WITH THE GFS
INDICATING ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS WY ALONG WITH
A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION FORMING RIGHT OVER THE CENTER
OF WY ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD OF WY. THE
EURO SHOWS NOTHING...JUST A STRAIGHT WEST NORTHWEST FLOW. KEPT
POPS AS IS FOR NOW. DID NOT WANT TO RAISE THU POPS BECAUSE OF
REMAINING MODEL UNCERTAINTY AND NONE OF OUR NEIGHBORS HAVE
INCREASED THEIR POPS EITHER.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.
BKN CIGS FL120-130 VCNTY AND EAST OF A KSHR-KCPR LINE SHOULD BE EAST
OF THE AREA BY 12Z...LEAVING SKC-SCT250 ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD.  GUSTY W-NW WINDS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
DIVIDE...VCNTY KCOD-KDUB-KRIW...WILL MOSTLY DIMINISH BY 15Z.

WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WIND CORRIDOR...VCNTY 50SM NE
KRKS-KCPR...AND ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE DIVIDE AFTER 06Z
SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  THE COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.




&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST WITH DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS. FRIDAY WILL BE ABOUT
8-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. WITH MIN RH`S EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND
IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...LOWERING INTO THE 20S WITH LOCAL MIN
RH`S IN THE UPPER TEENS. THE NORTHWEST WILL BE MORE MOIST WITH MIN
RH`S IN THE 30S AND 40S. GUSTY W-NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
EAST SLOPE OF MOST OF THE MOUNTAIN RANGES THROUGH FRIDAY. THE CODY
FOOTHILLS WILL ALSO SEE SOME GUSTY TO BRIEF STRONG WEST WINDS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN FROM KBPI AND KPNA TO
KRKS WILL ALSO SEE GUSTY W-NW WIND THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
DECREASING SOME. MORE WIND WILL RETURN FRIDAY BUT NOT AS STRONG AS
TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

A MORE ELEVATED FIRE RISK WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY EAST OF THE DIVIDE
DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES...MIN RH`S IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
AND INCREASING WEST WIND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PS
LONG TERM...LIPSON
AVIATION...AEM
FIRE WEATHER...PS










000
FXUS65 KRIW 270520
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1120 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

UPDATE...ADDED 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY (ISSUED AT 352 PM MDT)

RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
CLOUDINESS GRADUALLY DECREASING TONIGHT LEAVING ALL BUT THE NE
CORNER SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY ON FRIDAY. A FEW FLURRIES WERE NOTED
OVER THE HIGHER NRN MTNS THIS MORNING BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. FRIDAY
WILL BE ANOTHER 8-10 DEGREES WARMER FOR MANY AREAS. BREEZY TO WINDY
NW WIND AREAS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE DECREASING.
THE CODY FOOTHILLS ARE SHOWING A LITTLE MTN WAVE ACTION AND MODEST
GAP FLOW POTENTIAL SO BEEFED UP THE WINDS IN THE FAVORED AREAS
TONIGHT BUT DOES NOT LOOK MORE THAN WINDY IN THE NORMAL AREAS.
SOME BREEZES RETURN FRIDAY IN THE W-NW FAVORED FLOW AREAS BUT LESS
THAN TODAY. OTHERWISE...JUST WARMER...DRIER WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND
OVERALL LESS WIND.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

A DRY AND MILD WEST NORTHWEST FLOW DURING THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE
DEFINING FEATURE OF THE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST
WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OFF THE PACIFIC AT 145W WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AS A DRY WINDY TROUGH. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THIS EVENT CLOSELY AS THE LAST TROUGH THAT RESEMBLED THIS
ONE FIRST APPEARED IN THE MODELS AS IF THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WOULD
REMAIN ABOVE 15 PERCENT WHERE THE FUELS ARE ALREADY CRITICAL BIT
WOUND UP APPROACHING 10 PERCENT WHEN THE DAY OF CONCERNED ACTUALLY
ARRIVED ONE WEEK PRIOR TO THIS EVENT. MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE WINDS WILL CERTAINLY BE WITHIN CRITERIA FROM RKS TO CPR AND EVEN
AT RIW ON SATURDAY. EVEN AFTER THE ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COOL FRONT
TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...NW WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS MOST AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE GIVEN THE 3 HOURLY
10MB POST FRONTAL SFC PRESSURE RISES BUT THE RH SHOULD INCREASE
WITH THESE WINDS. AS FAR AS ANY PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE IS
CONCERNED...ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS OF A ROUGE T SHOWER COULD OCCUR
OVER THE NW MTNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH MEAGER MOISTURE AND
NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES. THEN THE WEST NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES
WITH THE NEXT WEAK RIPPLE IN THE FLOW EXPECTED SUNDAY AND AGAIN
MONDAY WITHOUT MUCH FANFARE. THE NEXT TROUGH OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE
WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY IN THE FORM OF MORE DRY WINDY WEATHER.
HOWEVER...THE NW MTNS COULD AGAIN SEE ISOLD SHOWERS FROM NEGATIVE
LIFTED INDICES AND SUFFICIENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. THEN
THURSDAY IS THE DAY THAT THE GFS AND THE EURO DIVERGE WITH THE GFS
INDICATING ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS WY ALONG WITH
A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION FORMING RIGHT OVER THE CENTER
OF WY ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD OF WY. THE
EURO SHOWS NOTHING...JUST A STRAIGHT WEST NORTHWEST FLOW. KEPT
POPS AS IS FOR NOW. DID NOT WANT TO RAISE THU POPS BECAUSE OF
REMAINING MODEL UNCERTAINTY AND NONE OF OUR NEIGHBORS HAVE
INCREASED THEIR POPS EITHER.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.
BKN CIGS FL120-130 VCNTY AND EAST OF A KSHR-KCPR LINE SHOULD BE EAST
OF THE AREA BY 12Z...LEAVING SKC-SCT250 ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD.  GUSTY W-NW WINDS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
DIVIDE...VCNTY KCOD-KDUB-KRIW...WILL MOSTLY DIMINISH BY 15Z.

WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WIND CORRIDOR...VCNTY 50SM NE
KRKS-KCPR...AND ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE DIVIDE AFTER 06Z
SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  THE COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.




&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST WITH DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS. FRIDAY WILL BE ABOUT
8-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. WITH MIN RH`S EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND
IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...LOWERING INTO THE 20S WITH LOCAL MIN
RH`S IN THE UPPER TEENS. THE NORTHWEST WILL BE MORE MOIST WITH MIN
RH`S IN THE 30S AND 40S. GUSTY W-NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
EAST SLOPE OF MOST OF THE MOUNTAIN RANGES THROUGH FRIDAY. THE CODY
FOOTHILLS WILL ALSO SEE SOME GUSTY TO BRIEF STRONG WEST WINDS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN FROM KBPI AND KPNA TO
KRKS WILL ALSO SEE GUSTY W-NW WIND THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
DECREASING SOME. MORE WIND WILL RETURN FRIDAY BUT NOT AS STRONG AS
TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

A MORE ELEVATED FIRE RISK WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY EAST OF THE DIVIDE
DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES...MIN RH`S IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
AND INCREASING WEST WIND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PS
LONG TERM...LIPSON
AVIATION...AEM
FIRE WEATHER...PS











000
FXUS65 KCYS 270019
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
619 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE AROUND WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BUT WINDS WILL QUICKLY
DROP OFF THIS EVENING.

A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER EAST CENTRAL WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING BUT MEASURABLE AMOUNTS WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. AS THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT THE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL WANE.

SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH
CLEAR SKIES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S EAST WITH 50S WEST. WESTERLY WINDS
WILL AGAIN INCREASE FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES SATURDAY BRINGING
MUCH WARMER AIR TO THE REGION. WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND SUNNY
SKIES WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 80S IN THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH 60S AND 70S OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CERTAINLY APPROACH RECORD TERRITORY SATURDAY.
DEEP MIXING WILL MAKE FOR WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST STARTS BREAKING DOWN SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND EAST INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. STUCK WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TREND OF KEEPING MOST OF ANY PRECIPITATION NORTH OF OUR AREA ON
SUNDAY IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z GFS AND NOT THE WETTER
ECMWF THAT DRIVES THE SHORTWAVE FARTHER SOUTH. THE LATEST GFS AND
ECMWF ARE IN SOME AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST PUSHING THE TRAIN OF STRONGER SHORTWAVES IN THE
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FARTHER NORTH ACROSS MONTANA AND THE
DAKOTAS THROUGH MIDWEEK...THEN THE GFS BRINGS A STRONG SHORTWAVE
SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHERN IDAHO LATE THURSDAY AND DEEPENS A
SURFACE LOW REFLECTION OVER NORTHERN COLORADO. KEPT PREVIOUS
FORECAST TREND OF BRINGING POPS UP A BIT FOR SCATTERED SNOW/RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS ON DAY 7...JUST DELAYED IT INTO
THURSDAY ON THIS PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 619 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
ALONG WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
AROUND 02Z THIS EVENING...WITH VARIABLE DIRECTIONS RANGING FROM
WESTERLY NEAR KRWL...TO NNW OVER MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WY/NE
PLAINS...WITH EVEN NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG I-25 AND NEAR KCDR.
WINDS WILL EASE AND RETURN TO A MORE WNW COMPONENT OVERNIGHT...BUT
LOOK TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT
OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PANHANDLE SITES...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THESE SHOWERS. SHOWER ACTIVITY ONGOING VCTY
KCYS AT 00Z WILL DISSIPATE BY 02Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT
RANGE FOR AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH WIND GUSTS 25 TO
30 MPH. ALTHOUGH RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
FRIDAY...BUT GIVEN DRY FUELS CONDITIONS THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR QUICK FIRE SPREAD.

THE MAIN CONCERN IS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
DROP INTO THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE AND WINDS WILL GUST 25 TO 35
MPH WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING. IT IS LOOKING
MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES WILL EVENTUALLY
BE NEEDED.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...SML




000
FXUS65 KCYS 270019
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
619 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE AROUND WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BUT WINDS WILL QUICKLY
DROP OFF THIS EVENING.

A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER EAST CENTRAL WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING BUT MEASURABLE AMOUNTS WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. AS THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT THE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL WANE.

SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH
CLEAR SKIES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S EAST WITH 50S WEST. WESTERLY WINDS
WILL AGAIN INCREASE FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES SATURDAY BRINGING
MUCH WARMER AIR TO THE REGION. WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND SUNNY
SKIES WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 80S IN THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH 60S AND 70S OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CERTAINLY APPROACH RECORD TERRITORY SATURDAY.
DEEP MIXING WILL MAKE FOR WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST STARTS BREAKING DOWN SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND EAST INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. STUCK WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TREND OF KEEPING MOST OF ANY PRECIPITATION NORTH OF OUR AREA ON
SUNDAY IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z GFS AND NOT THE WETTER
ECMWF THAT DRIVES THE SHORTWAVE FARTHER SOUTH. THE LATEST GFS AND
ECMWF ARE IN SOME AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST PUSHING THE TRAIN OF STRONGER SHORTWAVES IN THE
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FARTHER NORTH ACROSS MONTANA AND THE
DAKOTAS THROUGH MIDWEEK...THEN THE GFS BRINGS A STRONG SHORTWAVE
SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHERN IDAHO LATE THURSDAY AND DEEPENS A
SURFACE LOW REFLECTION OVER NORTHERN COLORADO. KEPT PREVIOUS
FORECAST TREND OF BRINGING POPS UP A BIT FOR SCATTERED SNOW/RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS ON DAY 7...JUST DELAYED IT INTO
THURSDAY ON THIS PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 619 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
ALONG WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
AROUND 02Z THIS EVENING...WITH VARIABLE DIRECTIONS RANGING FROM
WESTERLY NEAR KRWL...TO NNW OVER MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WY/NE
PLAINS...WITH EVEN NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG I-25 AND NEAR KCDR.
WINDS WILL EASE AND RETURN TO A MORE WNW COMPONENT OVERNIGHT...BUT
LOOK TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT
OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PANHANDLE SITES...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THESE SHOWERS. SHOWER ACTIVITY ONGOING VCTY
KCYS AT 00Z WILL DISSIPATE BY 02Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT
RANGE FOR AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH WIND GUSTS 25 TO
30 MPH. ALTHOUGH RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
FRIDAY...BUT GIVEN DRY FUELS CONDITIONS THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR QUICK FIRE SPREAD.

THE MAIN CONCERN IS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
DROP INTO THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE AND WINDS WILL GUST 25 TO 35
MPH WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING. IT IS LOOKING
MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES WILL EVENTUALLY
BE NEEDED.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...SML



000
FXUS65 KCYS 270019
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
619 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE AROUND WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BUT WINDS WILL QUICKLY
DROP OFF THIS EVENING.

A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER EAST CENTRAL WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING BUT MEASURABLE AMOUNTS WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. AS THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT THE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL WANE.

SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH
CLEAR SKIES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S EAST WITH 50S WEST. WESTERLY WINDS
WILL AGAIN INCREASE FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES SATURDAY BRINGING
MUCH WARMER AIR TO THE REGION. WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND SUNNY
SKIES WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 80S IN THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH 60S AND 70S OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CERTAINLY APPROACH RECORD TERRITORY SATURDAY.
DEEP MIXING WILL MAKE FOR WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST STARTS BREAKING DOWN SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND EAST INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. STUCK WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TREND OF KEEPING MOST OF ANY PRECIPITATION NORTH OF OUR AREA ON
SUNDAY IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z GFS AND NOT THE WETTER
ECMWF THAT DRIVES THE SHORTWAVE FARTHER SOUTH. THE LATEST GFS AND
ECMWF ARE IN SOME AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST PUSHING THE TRAIN OF STRONGER SHORTWAVES IN THE
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FARTHER NORTH ACROSS MONTANA AND THE
DAKOTAS THROUGH MIDWEEK...THEN THE GFS BRINGS A STRONG SHORTWAVE
SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHERN IDAHO LATE THURSDAY AND DEEPENS A
SURFACE LOW REFLECTION OVER NORTHERN COLORADO. KEPT PREVIOUS
FORECAST TREND OF BRINGING POPS UP A BIT FOR SCATTERED SNOW/RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS ON DAY 7...JUST DELAYED IT INTO
THURSDAY ON THIS PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 619 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
ALONG WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
AROUND 02Z THIS EVENING...WITH VARIABLE DIRECTIONS RANGING FROM
WESTERLY NEAR KRWL...TO NNW OVER MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WY/NE
PLAINS...WITH EVEN NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG I-25 AND NEAR KCDR.
WINDS WILL EASE AND RETURN TO A MORE WNW COMPONENT OVERNIGHT...BUT
LOOK TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT
OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PANHANDLE SITES...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THESE SHOWERS. SHOWER ACTIVITY ONGOING VCTY
KCYS AT 00Z WILL DISSIPATE BY 02Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT
RANGE FOR AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH WIND GUSTS 25 TO
30 MPH. ALTHOUGH RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
FRIDAY...BUT GIVEN DRY FUELS CONDITIONS THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR QUICK FIRE SPREAD.

THE MAIN CONCERN IS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
DROP INTO THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE AND WINDS WILL GUST 25 TO 35
MPH WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING. IT IS LOOKING
MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES WILL EVENTUALLY
BE NEEDED.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...SML



000
FXUS65 KCYS 270019
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
619 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE AROUND WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BUT WINDS WILL QUICKLY
DROP OFF THIS EVENING.

A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER EAST CENTRAL WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING BUT MEASURABLE AMOUNTS WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. AS THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT THE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL WANE.

SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH
CLEAR SKIES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S EAST WITH 50S WEST. WESTERLY WINDS
WILL AGAIN INCREASE FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES SATURDAY BRINGING
MUCH WARMER AIR TO THE REGION. WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND SUNNY
SKIES WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 80S IN THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH 60S AND 70S OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CERTAINLY APPROACH RECORD TERRITORY SATURDAY.
DEEP MIXING WILL MAKE FOR WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST STARTS BREAKING DOWN SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND EAST INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. STUCK WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TREND OF KEEPING MOST OF ANY PRECIPITATION NORTH OF OUR AREA ON
SUNDAY IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z GFS AND NOT THE WETTER
ECMWF THAT DRIVES THE SHORTWAVE FARTHER SOUTH. THE LATEST GFS AND
ECMWF ARE IN SOME AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST PUSHING THE TRAIN OF STRONGER SHORTWAVES IN THE
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FARTHER NORTH ACROSS MONTANA AND THE
DAKOTAS THROUGH MIDWEEK...THEN THE GFS BRINGS A STRONG SHORTWAVE
SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHERN IDAHO LATE THURSDAY AND DEEPENS A
SURFACE LOW REFLECTION OVER NORTHERN COLORADO. KEPT PREVIOUS
FORECAST TREND OF BRINGING POPS UP A BIT FOR SCATTERED SNOW/RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS ON DAY 7...JUST DELAYED IT INTO
THURSDAY ON THIS PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 619 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
ALONG WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
AROUND 02Z THIS EVENING...WITH VARIABLE DIRECTIONS RANGING FROM
WESTERLY NEAR KRWL...TO NNW OVER MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WY/NE
PLAINS...WITH EVEN NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG I-25 AND NEAR KCDR.
WINDS WILL EASE AND RETURN TO A MORE WNW COMPONENT OVERNIGHT...BUT
LOOK TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT
OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PANHANDLE SITES...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THESE SHOWERS. SHOWER ACTIVITY ONGOING VCTY
KCYS AT 00Z WILL DISSIPATE BY 02Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT
RANGE FOR AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH WIND GUSTS 25 TO
30 MPH. ALTHOUGH RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
FRIDAY...BUT GIVEN DRY FUELS CONDITIONS THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR QUICK FIRE SPREAD.

THE MAIN CONCERN IS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
DROP INTO THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE AND WINDS WILL GUST 25 TO 35
MPH WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING. IT IS LOOKING
MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES WILL EVENTUALLY
BE NEEDED.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...SML




000
FXUS63 KUNR 262308
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
506 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
CENTRAL MT INTO CENTRAL NE. LEFTOVER SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS AND DOWNSTREAM CONVERGENCE AREA NEAR THE
PINE RIDGE. THIS IS IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING SOUTHEAST
INTO THE MIDWEST. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOTED OVER CENTRAL
BC/SK...WHICH WILL SWIFTLY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT
BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF -SHRASN TO THE CWA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS WHERE
SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE BETWEEN 06Z-15Z FRIDAY AND THEN
OVER NORTHWEST SD WHERE BEST FORCING OCCUR ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE TONIGHT.

FRIDAY...LEFTOVER MORNING SHOWERS WILL END AS THE FRONT SHIFTS EAST
AS A WARM FRONT WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED AT TIMES BY AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXES OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE...EXCEPT PERHAPS
SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THE FAR EAST NEAREST PRECIPITATION THAT FELL
TODAY. QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

A VERY WARM START TO THE WEEKEND AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE PASSES OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHWEST SD IF
WINDS INCREASE ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH WILL
BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. MODELS ARE STILL
RESOLVING TIMING ISSUES WITH THE WAVE CROSSING THE NRN PLAINS.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 506 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS
EARLY TINS EVENING. THE EXCEPTION IS MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AREA WHERE LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES ALONG WITH SNOW
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW AND MVFR
CONDITIONS. IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE BLACK HILLS. GUSTY NW
WINDS WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT WILL RETURN FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...10








000
FXUS65 KRIW 262152
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
352 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
CLOUDINESS GRADUALLY DECREASING TONIGHT LEAVING ALL BUT THE NE
CORNER SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY ON FRIDAY. A FEW FLURRIES WERE NOTED
OVER THE HIGHER NRN MTNS THIS MORNING BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. FRIDAY
WILL BE ANOTHER 8-10 DEGREES WARMER FOR MANY AREAS. BREEZY TO WINDY
NW WIND AREAS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE DECREASING.
THE CODY FOOTHILLS ARE SHOWING A LITTLE MTN WAVE ACTION AND MODEST
GAP FLOW POTENTIAL SO BEEFED UP THE WINDS IN THE FAVORED AREAS
TONIGHT BUT DOES NOT LOOK MORE THAN WINDY IN THE NORMAL AREAS.
SOME BREEZES RETURN FRIDAY IN THE W-NW FAVORED FLOW AREAS BUT LESS
THAN TODAY. OTHERWISE...JUST WARMER...DRIER WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND
OVERALL LESS WIND.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

A DRY AND MILD WEST NORTHWEST FLOW DURING THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE
DEFINING FEATURE OF THE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST
WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OFF THE PACIFIC AT 145W WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AS A DRY WINDY TROUGH. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THIS EVENT CLOSELY AS THE LAST TROUGH THAT RESEMBLED THIS
ONE FIRST APPEARED IN THE MODELS AS IF THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WOULD
REMAIN ABOVE 15 PERCENT WHERE THE FUELS ARE ALREADY CRITICAL BIT
WOUND UP APPROACHING 10 PERCENT WHEN THE DAY OF CONCERNED ACTUALLY
ARRIVED ONE WEEK PRIOR TO THIS EVENT. MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE WINDS WILL CERTAINLY BE WITHIN CRITERIA FROM RKS TO CPR AND EVEN
AT RIW ON SATURDAY. EVEN AFTER THE ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COOL FRONT
TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...NW WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS MOST AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE GIVEN THE 3 HOURLY
10MB POST FRONTAL SFC PRESSURE RISES BUT THE RH SHOULD INCREASE
WITH THESE WINDS. AS FAR AS ANY PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE IS
CONCERNED...ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS OF A ROUGE T SHOWER COULD OCCUR
OVER THE NW MTNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH MEAGER MOISTURE AND
NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES. THEN THE WEST NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES
WITH THE NEXT WEAK RIPPLE IN THE FLOW EXPECTED SUNDAY AND AGAIN
MONDAY WITHOUT MUCH FANFARE. THE NEXT TROUGH OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE
WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY IN THE FORM OF MORE DRY WINDY WEATHER.
HOWEVER...THE NW MTNS COULD AGAIN SEE ISOLD SHOWERS FROM NEGATIVE
LIFTED INDICES AND SUFFICIENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. THEN
THURSDAY IS THE DAY THAT THE GFS AND THE EURO DIVERGE WITH THE GFS
INDICATING ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS WY ALONG WITH
A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION FORMING RIGHT OVER THE CENTER
OF WY ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD OF WY. THE
EURO SHOWS NOTHING...JUST A STRAIGHT WEST NORTHWEST FLOW. KEPT
POPS AS IS FOR NOW. DID NOT WANT TO RAISE THU POPS BECAUSE OF
REMAINING MODEL UNCERTAINTY AND NONE OF OUR NEIGHBORS HAVE
INCREASED THEIR POPS EITHER.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. GUSTY
W-NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS IN
THE UPPER GREEN...RED DESERT/I80 CORRIDOR WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND
THEN INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY BUT THEY WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS TODAY.
THE CODY FOOTHILLS INCLUDING THE KCOD TERMINAL MAY SEE SOME STRONG
WEST WIND AT TIMES TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST WITH DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS. FRIDAY WILL BE ABOUT
8-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. WITH MIN RH`S EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND
IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...LOWERING INTO THE 20S WITH LOCAL MIN
RH`S IN THE UPPER TEENS. THE NORTHWEST WILL BE MORE MOIST WITH MIN
RH`S IN THE 30S AND 40S. GUSTY W-NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
EAST SLOPE OF MOST OF THE MOUNTAIN RANGES THROUGH FRIDAY. THE CODY
FOOTHILLS WILL ALSO SEE SOME GUSTY TO BRIEF STRONG WEST WINDS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN FROM KBPI AND KPNA TO
KRKS WILL ALSO SEE GUSTY W-NW WIND THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
DECREASING SOME. MORE WIND WILL RETURN FRIDAY BUT NOT AS STRONG AS
TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

A MORE ELEVATED FIRE RISK WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY EAST OF THE DIVIDE
DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES...MIN RH`S IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
AND INCREASING WEST WIND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PS
LONG TERM...LIPSON
AVIATION...PS
FIRE WEATHER...PS








000
FXUS65 KRIW 262152
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
352 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
CLOUDINESS GRADUALLY DECREASING TONIGHT LEAVING ALL BUT THE NE
CORNER SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY ON FRIDAY. A FEW FLURRIES WERE NOTED
OVER THE HIGHER NRN MTNS THIS MORNING BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. FRIDAY
WILL BE ANOTHER 8-10 DEGREES WARMER FOR MANY AREAS. BREEZY TO WINDY
NW WIND AREAS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE DECREASING.
THE CODY FOOTHILLS ARE SHOWING A LITTLE MTN WAVE ACTION AND MODEST
GAP FLOW POTENTIAL SO BEEFED UP THE WINDS IN THE FAVORED AREAS
TONIGHT BUT DOES NOT LOOK MORE THAN WINDY IN THE NORMAL AREAS.
SOME BREEZES RETURN FRIDAY IN THE W-NW FAVORED FLOW AREAS BUT LESS
THAN TODAY. OTHERWISE...JUST WARMER...DRIER WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND
OVERALL LESS WIND.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

A DRY AND MILD WEST NORTHWEST FLOW DURING THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE
DEFINING FEATURE OF THE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST
WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OFF THE PACIFIC AT 145W WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AS A DRY WINDY TROUGH. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THIS EVENT CLOSELY AS THE LAST TROUGH THAT RESEMBLED THIS
ONE FIRST APPEARED IN THE MODELS AS IF THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WOULD
REMAIN ABOVE 15 PERCENT WHERE THE FUELS ARE ALREADY CRITICAL BIT
WOUND UP APPROACHING 10 PERCENT WHEN THE DAY OF CONCERNED ACTUALLY
ARRIVED ONE WEEK PRIOR TO THIS EVENT. MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE WINDS WILL CERTAINLY BE WITHIN CRITERIA FROM RKS TO CPR AND EVEN
AT RIW ON SATURDAY. EVEN AFTER THE ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COOL FRONT
TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...NW WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS MOST AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE GIVEN THE 3 HOURLY
10MB POST FRONTAL SFC PRESSURE RISES BUT THE RH SHOULD INCREASE
WITH THESE WINDS. AS FAR AS ANY PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE IS
CONCERNED...ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS OF A ROUGE T SHOWER COULD OCCUR
OVER THE NW MTNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH MEAGER MOISTURE AND
NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES. THEN THE WEST NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES
WITH THE NEXT WEAK RIPPLE IN THE FLOW EXPECTED SUNDAY AND AGAIN
MONDAY WITHOUT MUCH FANFARE. THE NEXT TROUGH OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE
WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY IN THE FORM OF MORE DRY WINDY WEATHER.
HOWEVER...THE NW MTNS COULD AGAIN SEE ISOLD SHOWERS FROM NEGATIVE
LIFTED INDICES AND SUFFICIENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. THEN
THURSDAY IS THE DAY THAT THE GFS AND THE EURO DIVERGE WITH THE GFS
INDICATING ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS WY ALONG WITH
A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION FORMING RIGHT OVER THE CENTER
OF WY ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD OF WY. THE
EURO SHOWS NOTHING...JUST A STRAIGHT WEST NORTHWEST FLOW. KEPT
POPS AS IS FOR NOW. DID NOT WANT TO RAISE THU POPS BECAUSE OF
REMAINING MODEL UNCERTAINTY AND NONE OF OUR NEIGHBORS HAVE
INCREASED THEIR POPS EITHER.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. GUSTY
W-NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS IN
THE UPPER GREEN...RED DESERT/I80 CORRIDOR WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND
THEN INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY BUT THEY WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS TODAY.
THE CODY FOOTHILLS INCLUDING THE KCOD TERMINAL MAY SEE SOME STRONG
WEST WIND AT TIMES TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST WITH DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS. FRIDAY WILL BE ABOUT
8-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. WITH MIN RH`S EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND
IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...LOWERING INTO THE 20S WITH LOCAL MIN
RH`S IN THE UPPER TEENS. THE NORTHWEST WILL BE MORE MOIST WITH MIN
RH`S IN THE 30S AND 40S. GUSTY W-NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
EAST SLOPE OF MOST OF THE MOUNTAIN RANGES THROUGH FRIDAY. THE CODY
FOOTHILLS WILL ALSO SEE SOME GUSTY TO BRIEF STRONG WEST WINDS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN FROM KBPI AND KPNA TO
KRKS WILL ALSO SEE GUSTY W-NW WIND THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
DECREASING SOME. MORE WIND WILL RETURN FRIDAY BUT NOT AS STRONG AS
TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

A MORE ELEVATED FIRE RISK WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY EAST OF THE DIVIDE
DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES...MIN RH`S IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
AND INCREASING WEST WIND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PS
LONG TERM...LIPSON
AVIATION...PS
FIRE WEATHER...PS








000
FXUS65 KRIW 262152
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
352 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
CLOUDINESS GRADUALLY DECREASING TONIGHT LEAVING ALL BUT THE NE
CORNER SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY ON FRIDAY. A FEW FLURRIES WERE NOTED
OVER THE HIGHER NRN MTNS THIS MORNING BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. FRIDAY
WILL BE ANOTHER 8-10 DEGREES WARMER FOR MANY AREAS. BREEZY TO WINDY
NW WIND AREAS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE DECREASING.
THE CODY FOOTHILLS ARE SHOWING A LITTLE MTN WAVE ACTION AND MODEST
GAP FLOW POTENTIAL SO BEEFED UP THE WINDS IN THE FAVORED AREAS
TONIGHT BUT DOES NOT LOOK MORE THAN WINDY IN THE NORMAL AREAS.
SOME BREEZES RETURN FRIDAY IN THE W-NW FAVORED FLOW AREAS BUT LESS
THAN TODAY. OTHERWISE...JUST WARMER...DRIER WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND
OVERALL LESS WIND.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

A DRY AND MILD WEST NORTHWEST FLOW DURING THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE
DEFINING FEATURE OF THE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST
WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OFF THE PACIFIC AT 145W WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AS A DRY WINDY TROUGH. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THIS EVENT CLOSELY AS THE LAST TROUGH THAT RESEMBLED THIS
ONE FIRST APPEARED IN THE MODELS AS IF THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WOULD
REMAIN ABOVE 15 PERCENT WHERE THE FUELS ARE ALREADY CRITICAL BIT
WOUND UP APPROACHING 10 PERCENT WHEN THE DAY OF CONCERNED ACTUALLY
ARRIVED ONE WEEK PRIOR TO THIS EVENT. MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE WINDS WILL CERTAINLY BE WITHIN CRITERIA FROM RKS TO CPR AND EVEN
AT RIW ON SATURDAY. EVEN AFTER THE ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COOL FRONT
TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...NW WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS MOST AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE GIVEN THE 3 HOURLY
10MB POST FRONTAL SFC PRESSURE RISES BUT THE RH SHOULD INCREASE
WITH THESE WINDS. AS FAR AS ANY PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE IS
CONCERNED...ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS OF A ROUGE T SHOWER COULD OCCUR
OVER THE NW MTNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH MEAGER MOISTURE AND
NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES. THEN THE WEST NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES
WITH THE NEXT WEAK RIPPLE IN THE FLOW EXPECTED SUNDAY AND AGAIN
MONDAY WITHOUT MUCH FANFARE. THE NEXT TROUGH OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE
WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY IN THE FORM OF MORE DRY WINDY WEATHER.
HOWEVER...THE NW MTNS COULD AGAIN SEE ISOLD SHOWERS FROM NEGATIVE
LIFTED INDICES AND SUFFICIENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. THEN
THURSDAY IS THE DAY THAT THE GFS AND THE EURO DIVERGE WITH THE GFS
INDICATING ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS WY ALONG WITH
A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION FORMING RIGHT OVER THE CENTER
OF WY ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD OF WY. THE
EURO SHOWS NOTHING...JUST A STRAIGHT WEST NORTHWEST FLOW. KEPT
POPS AS IS FOR NOW. DID NOT WANT TO RAISE THU POPS BECAUSE OF
REMAINING MODEL UNCERTAINTY AND NONE OF OUR NEIGHBORS HAVE
INCREASED THEIR POPS EITHER.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. GUSTY
W-NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS IN
THE UPPER GREEN...RED DESERT/I80 CORRIDOR WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND
THEN INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY BUT THEY WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS TODAY.
THE CODY FOOTHILLS INCLUDING THE KCOD TERMINAL MAY SEE SOME STRONG
WEST WIND AT TIMES TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST WITH DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS. FRIDAY WILL BE ABOUT
8-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. WITH MIN RH`S EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND
IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...LOWERING INTO THE 20S WITH LOCAL MIN
RH`S IN THE UPPER TEENS. THE NORTHWEST WILL BE MORE MOIST WITH MIN
RH`S IN THE 30S AND 40S. GUSTY W-NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
EAST SLOPE OF MOST OF THE MOUNTAIN RANGES THROUGH FRIDAY. THE CODY
FOOTHILLS WILL ALSO SEE SOME GUSTY TO BRIEF STRONG WEST WINDS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN FROM KBPI AND KPNA TO
KRKS WILL ALSO SEE GUSTY W-NW WIND THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
DECREASING SOME. MORE WIND WILL RETURN FRIDAY BUT NOT AS STRONG AS
TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

A MORE ELEVATED FIRE RISK WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY EAST OF THE DIVIDE
DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES...MIN RH`S IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
AND INCREASING WEST WIND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PS
LONG TERM...LIPSON
AVIATION...PS
FIRE WEATHER...PS







000
FXUS65 KCYS 262051
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
251 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE AROUND WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
NEBRAKSA PANHANDLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BUT WINDS WILL QUICKLY
DROP OFF THIS EVENING.

A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER EAST CENTRAL WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING BUT MEASURABLE AMOUNTS WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. AS THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT THE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL WANE.

SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH
CLEAR SKIES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S EAST WITH 50S WEST. WESTERLY WINDS
WILL AGAIN INCREASE FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES SATURDAY BRINGING
MUCH WARMER AIR TO THE REGION. WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND SUNNY
SKIES WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 80S IN THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH 60S AND 70S OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CERTAINLY APPROACH RECORD TERRITORY SATURDAY.
DEEP MIXING WILL MAKE FOR WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST STARTS BREAKING DOWN SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND EAST INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. STUCK WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TREND OF KEEPING MOST OF ANY PRECIPITATION NORTH OF OUR AREA ON
SUNDAY IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z GFS AND NOT THE WETTER
ECMWF THAT DRIVES THE SHORTWAVE FARTHER SOUTH. THE LATEST GFS AND
ECMWF ARE IN SOME AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST PUSHING THE TRAIN OF STRONGER SHORTWAVES IN THE
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FARTHER NORTH ACROSS MONTANA AND THE
DAKOTAS THROUGH MIDWEEK...THEN THE GFS BRINGS A STRONG SHORTWAVE
SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHERN IDAHO LATE THURSDAY AND DEEPENS A
SURFACE LOW REFLECTION OVER NORTHERN COLORADO. KEPT PREVIOUS
FORECAST TREND OF BRINGING POPS UP A BIT FOR SCATTERED SNOW/RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS ON DAY 7...JUST DELAYED IT INTO
THURSDAY ON THIS PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE WAS MADE FROM THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE HERE AT
MID-DAY. MAINLY A WIND FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS MIXING DOWN THROUGH SUNSET...A SLIGHT
LULL IN GUSTIER WINDS OVERNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES A
BIT...THEN A RETURN OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TOMORROW AT 20G30KTS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE MID-DECK OF CLOUDS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...BUT VFR CATEGORY WILL
PREVAIL AT ALL AIRPORTS THROUGH LATE TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT
RANGE FOR AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH WIND GUSTS 25 TO
30 MPH. ALTHOUGH RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
FRIDAY...BUT GIVEN DRY FUELS CONDITIONS THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR QUICK FIRE SPREAD.

THE MAIN CONCERN IS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
DROP INTO THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE AND WINDS WILL GUST 25 TO 35
MPH WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING. IT IS LOOKING
MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES WILL EVENTUALLY
BE NEEDED.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...SML



000
FXUS65 KCYS 262051
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
251 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE AROUND WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
NEBRAKSA PANHANDLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BUT WINDS WILL QUICKLY
DROP OFF THIS EVENING.

A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER EAST CENTRAL WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING BUT MEASURABLE AMOUNTS WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. AS THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT THE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL WANE.

SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH
CLEAR SKIES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S EAST WITH 50S WEST. WESTERLY WINDS
WILL AGAIN INCREASE FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES SATURDAY BRINGING
MUCH WARMER AIR TO THE REGION. WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND SUNNY
SKIES WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 80S IN THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH 60S AND 70S OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CERTAINLY APPROACH RECORD TERRITORY SATURDAY.
DEEP MIXING WILL MAKE FOR WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST STARTS BREAKING DOWN SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND EAST INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. STUCK WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TREND OF KEEPING MOST OF ANY PRECIPITATION NORTH OF OUR AREA ON
SUNDAY IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z GFS AND NOT THE WETTER
ECMWF THAT DRIVES THE SHORTWAVE FARTHER SOUTH. THE LATEST GFS AND
ECMWF ARE IN SOME AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST PUSHING THE TRAIN OF STRONGER SHORTWAVES IN THE
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FARTHER NORTH ACROSS MONTANA AND THE
DAKOTAS THROUGH MIDWEEK...THEN THE GFS BRINGS A STRONG SHORTWAVE
SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHERN IDAHO LATE THURSDAY AND DEEPENS A
SURFACE LOW REFLECTION OVER NORTHERN COLORADO. KEPT PREVIOUS
FORECAST TREND OF BRINGING POPS UP A BIT FOR SCATTERED SNOW/RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS ON DAY 7...JUST DELAYED IT INTO
THURSDAY ON THIS PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE WAS MADE FROM THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE HERE AT
MID-DAY. MAINLY A WIND FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS MIXING DOWN THROUGH SUNSET...A SLIGHT
LULL IN GUSTIER WINDS OVERNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES A
BIT...THEN A RETURN OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TOMORROW AT 20G30KTS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE MID-DECK OF CLOUDS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...BUT VFR CATEGORY WILL
PREVAIL AT ALL AIRPORTS THROUGH LATE TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT
RANGE FOR AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH WIND GUSTS 25 TO
30 MPH. ALTHOUGH RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
FRIDAY...BUT GIVEN DRY FUELS CONDITIONS THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR QUICK FIRE SPREAD.

THE MAIN CONCERN IS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
DROP INTO THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE AND WINDS WILL GUST 25 TO 35
MPH WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING. IT IS LOOKING
MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES WILL EVENTUALLY
BE NEEDED.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...SML



000
FXUS65 KCYS 262051
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
251 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE AROUND WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
NEBRAKSA PANHANDLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BUT WINDS WILL QUICKLY
DROP OFF THIS EVENING.

A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER EAST CENTRAL WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING BUT MEASURABLE AMOUNTS WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. AS THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT THE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL WANE.

SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH
CLEAR SKIES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S EAST WITH 50S WEST. WESTERLY WINDS
WILL AGAIN INCREASE FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES SATURDAY BRINGING
MUCH WARMER AIR TO THE REGION. WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND SUNNY
SKIES WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 80S IN THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH 60S AND 70S OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CERTAINLY APPROACH RECORD TERRITORY SATURDAY.
DEEP MIXING WILL MAKE FOR WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST STARTS BREAKING DOWN SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND EAST INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. STUCK WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TREND OF KEEPING MOST OF ANY PRECIPITATION NORTH OF OUR AREA ON
SUNDAY IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z GFS AND NOT THE WETTER
ECMWF THAT DRIVES THE SHORTWAVE FARTHER SOUTH. THE LATEST GFS AND
ECMWF ARE IN SOME AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST PUSHING THE TRAIN OF STRONGER SHORTWAVES IN THE
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FARTHER NORTH ACROSS MONTANA AND THE
DAKOTAS THROUGH MIDWEEK...THEN THE GFS BRINGS A STRONG SHORTWAVE
SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHERN IDAHO LATE THURSDAY AND DEEPENS A
SURFACE LOW REFLECTION OVER NORTHERN COLORADO. KEPT PREVIOUS
FORECAST TREND OF BRINGING POPS UP A BIT FOR SCATTERED SNOW/RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS ON DAY 7...JUST DELAYED IT INTO
THURSDAY ON THIS PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE WAS MADE FROM THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE HERE AT
MID-DAY. MAINLY A WIND FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS MIXING DOWN THROUGH SUNSET...A SLIGHT
LULL IN GUSTIER WINDS OVERNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES A
BIT...THEN A RETURN OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TOMORROW AT 20G30KTS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE MID-DECK OF CLOUDS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...BUT VFR CATEGORY WILL
PREVAIL AT ALL AIRPORTS THROUGH LATE TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT
RANGE FOR AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH WIND GUSTS 25 TO
30 MPH. ALTHOUGH RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
FRIDAY...BUT GIVEN DRY FUELS CONDITIONS THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR QUICK FIRE SPREAD.

THE MAIN CONCERN IS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
DROP INTO THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE AND WINDS WILL GUST 25 TO 35
MPH WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING. IT IS LOOKING
MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES WILL EVENTUALLY
BE NEEDED.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...SML



000
FXUS65 KCYS 262051
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
251 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE AROUND WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
NEBRAKSA PANHANDLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BUT WINDS WILL QUICKLY
DROP OFF THIS EVENING.

A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER EAST CENTRAL WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING BUT MEASURABLE AMOUNTS WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. AS THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT THE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL WANE.

SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH
CLEAR SKIES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S EAST WITH 50S WEST. WESTERLY WINDS
WILL AGAIN INCREASE FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES SATURDAY BRINGING
MUCH WARMER AIR TO THE REGION. WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND SUNNY
SKIES WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 80S IN THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH 60S AND 70S OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CERTAINLY APPROACH RECORD TERRITORY SATURDAY.
DEEP MIXING WILL MAKE FOR WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST STARTS BREAKING DOWN SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND EAST INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. STUCK WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TREND OF KEEPING MOST OF ANY PRECIPITATION NORTH OF OUR AREA ON
SUNDAY IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z GFS AND NOT THE WETTER
ECMWF THAT DRIVES THE SHORTWAVE FARTHER SOUTH. THE LATEST GFS AND
ECMWF ARE IN SOME AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST PUSHING THE TRAIN OF STRONGER SHORTWAVES IN THE
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FARTHER NORTH ACROSS MONTANA AND THE
DAKOTAS THROUGH MIDWEEK...THEN THE GFS BRINGS A STRONG SHORTWAVE
SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHERN IDAHO LATE THURSDAY AND DEEPENS A
SURFACE LOW REFLECTION OVER NORTHERN COLORADO. KEPT PREVIOUS
FORECAST TREND OF BRINGING POPS UP A BIT FOR SCATTERED SNOW/RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS ON DAY 7...JUST DELAYED IT INTO
THURSDAY ON THIS PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE WAS MADE FROM THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE HERE AT
MID-DAY. MAINLY A WIND FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS MIXING DOWN THROUGH SUNSET...A SLIGHT
LULL IN GUSTIER WINDS OVERNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES A
BIT...THEN A RETURN OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TOMORROW AT 20G30KTS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE MID-DECK OF CLOUDS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...BUT VFR CATEGORY WILL
PREVAIL AT ALL AIRPORTS THROUGH LATE TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT
RANGE FOR AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH WIND GUSTS 25 TO
30 MPH. ALTHOUGH RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
FRIDAY...BUT GIVEN DRY FUELS CONDITIONS THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR QUICK FIRE SPREAD.

THE MAIN CONCERN IS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
DROP INTO THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE AND WINDS WILL GUST 25 TO 35
MPH WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING. IT IS LOOKING
MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES WILL EVENTUALLY
BE NEEDED.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...SML



000
FXUS63 KUNR 262036
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
236 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
CENTRAL MT INTO CENTRAL NE. LEFTOVER SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS AND DOWNSTREAM CONVERGENCE AREA NEAR THE
PINE RIDGE. THIS IS IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING SOUTHEAST
INTO THE MIDWEST. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOTED OVER CENTRAL
BC/SK...WHICH WILL SWIFTLY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT
BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF -SHRASN TO THE CWA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS WHERE
SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE BETWEEN 06Z-15Z FRIDAY AND THEN
OVER NORTHWEST SD WHERE BEST FORCING OCCUR ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE TONIGHT.

FRIDAY...LEFTOVER MORNING SHOWERS WILL END AS THE FRONT SHIFTS EAST
AS A WARM FRONT WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED AT TIMES BY AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXES OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE...EXCEPT PERHAPS
SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THE FAR EAST NEAREST PRECIPITATION THAT FELL
TODAY. QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

A VERY WARM START TO THE WEEKEND AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE PASSES OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHWEST SD IF
WINDS INCREASE ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH WILL
BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. MODELS ARE STILL
RESOLVING TIMING ISSUES WITH THE WAVE CROSSING THE NRN PLAINS.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
THE EXCEPTION IS MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS
AREA WHERE LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES ALONG WITH SNOW ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW AND MVFR CONDITIONS. IFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE BLACK HILLS. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL END
THIS EVENING...BUT RETURN FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS63 KUNR 262036
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
236 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
CENTRAL MT INTO CENTRAL NE. LEFTOVER SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS AND DOWNSTREAM CONVERGENCE AREA NEAR THE
PINE RIDGE. THIS IS IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING SOUTHEAST
INTO THE MIDWEST. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOTED OVER CENTRAL
BC/SK...WHICH WILL SWIFTLY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT
BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF -SHRASN TO THE CWA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS WHERE
SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE BETWEEN 06Z-15Z FRIDAY AND THEN
OVER NORTHWEST SD WHERE BEST FORCING OCCUR ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE TONIGHT.

FRIDAY...LEFTOVER MORNING SHOWERS WILL END AS THE FRONT SHIFTS EAST
AS A WARM FRONT WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED AT TIMES BY AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXES OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE...EXCEPT PERHAPS
SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THE FAR EAST NEAREST PRECIPITATION THAT FELL
TODAY. QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

A VERY WARM START TO THE WEEKEND AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE PASSES OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHWEST SD IF
WINDS INCREASE ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH WILL
BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. MODELS ARE STILL
RESOLVING TIMING ISSUES WITH THE WAVE CROSSING THE NRN PLAINS.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
THE EXCEPTION IS MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS
AREA WHERE LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES ALONG WITH SNOW ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW AND MVFR CONDITIONS. IFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE BLACK HILLS. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL END
THIS EVENING...BUT RETURN FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26





000
FXUS65 KRIW 261935
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
135 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
CLOUDINESS GRADUALLY DECREASING TONIGHT LEAVING ALL BUT THE NE
CORNER SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY ON FRIDAY. A FEW FLURRIES WERE NOTED
OVER THE HIGHER NRN MTNS THIS MORNING BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. FRIDAY
WILL BE ANOTHER 8-10 DEGREES WARMER FOR MANY AREAS. BREEZY TO WINDY
NW WIND AREAS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE DECREASING.
THE CODY FOOTHILLS ARE SHOWING A LITTLE MTN WAVE ACTION AND MODEST
GAP FLOW POTENTIAL SO BEEFED UP THE WINDS IN THE FAVORED AREAS
TONIGHT BUT DOESN`T LOOK MORE THAN WINDY IN THE NORMAL AREAS. SOME
BREEZES RETURN FRIDAY IN THE W-NW FAVORED FLOW AREAS BUT LESS THAN
TODAY. OTHERWISE...JUST WARMER...DRIER WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND
OVERALL LESS WIND.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

A DRY AND MILD WEST NORTHWEST FLOW DURING THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE
DEFINING FEATURE OF THE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST
WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OFF THE PACIFIC AT 145W WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AS A DRY WINDY TROUGH. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THIS EVENT CLOSELY AS THE LAST TROUGH THAT RESEMBLED THIS
ONE FIRST APPEARED IN THE MODELS AS IF THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WOULD
REMAIN ABOVE 15 PERCENT WHERE THE FUELS ARE ALREADY CRITICAL BIT
WOUND UP APPROACHING 10 PERCENT WHEN THE DAY OF CONCERNED ACTUALLY
ARRIVED ONE WEEK PRIOR TO THIS EVENT. MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE WINDS WILL CERTAINLY BE WITHIN CRITERIA FROM RKS TO CPR AND EVEN
AT RIW ON SATURDAY. AS FAR AS ANY PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE IS
CONCERNED...ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS OF A ROUGE T SHOWER COULD OCCUR
OVER THE NW MTNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH MEAGER MOISTURE AND
NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES. THEN THE WEST NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES WITH THE
NEXT WEAK RIPPLE IN THE FLOW EXPECTED SUNDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY
WITHOUT MUCH FANFARE. THE NEXT TROUGH OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE WILL
ARRIVE TUESDAY IN THE FORM OF MORE DRY WINDY WEATHER. HOWEVER...THE
NW MTNS COULD AGAIN SEE ISOLD SHOWERS FROM NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES
AND SUFFICIENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. THEN THURSDAY IS THE
DAY THAT THE GFS AND THE EURO DIVERGE WITH THE GFS INDICATING
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS WY ALONG WITH A WELL
DEFINED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION FORMING RIGHT OVER THE CENTER OF WY
ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD OF WY. THE EURO
SHOWS NOTHING...JUST A STRAIGHT WEST NORTHWEST FLOW. KEPT POPS AS IS
FOR NOW. DID NOT WANT TO RAISE THU POPS BECAUSE OF REMAINING MODEL
UNCERTAINTY AND NONE OF OUR NEIGHBORS HAVE INCREASED THEIR POPS
EITHER.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. GUSTY
W-NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS IN
THE UPPER GREEN...RED DESERT/I80 CORRIDOR WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND
THEN INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY BUT THEY WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS TODAY.
THE CODY FOOTHILLS INCLUDING THE KCOD TERMINAL MAY SEE SOME STRONG
WEST WIND AT TIMES TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST WITH DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS. FRIDAY WILL BE ABOUT
8-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. WITH MIN RH`S EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND
IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...LOWERING INTO THE 20S WITH LOCAL MIN
RH`S IN THE UPPER TEENS. THE NORTHWEST WILL BE MORE MOIST WITH MIN
RH`S IN THE 30S AND 40S. GUSTY W-NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
EAST SLOPE OF MOST OF THE MOUNTAIN RANGES THROUGH FRIDAY. THE CODY
FOOTHILLS WILL ALSO SEE SOME GUSTY TO BRIEF STRONG WEST WINDS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN FROM KBPI AND KPNA TO
KRKS WILL ALSO SEE GUSTY W-NW WIND THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
DECREASING SOME. MORE WIND WILL RETURN FRIDAY BUT NOT AS STRONG AS
TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

A MORE ELEVATED FIRE RISK WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY EAST OF THE DIVIDE
DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES...MIN RH`S IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
AND INCREASING WEST WIND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PS
LONG TERM...LIPSON
AVIATION...PS
FIRE WEATHER...PS






000
FXUS65 KRIW 261935
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
135 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
CLOUDINESS GRADUALLY DECREASING TONIGHT LEAVING ALL BUT THE NE
CORNER SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY ON FRIDAY. A FEW FLURRIES WERE NOTED
OVER THE HIGHER NRN MTNS THIS MORNING BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. FRIDAY
WILL BE ANOTHER 8-10 DEGREES WARMER FOR MANY AREAS. BREEZY TO WINDY
NW WIND AREAS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE DECREASING.
THE CODY FOOTHILLS ARE SHOWING A LITTLE MTN WAVE ACTION AND MODEST
GAP FLOW POTENTIAL SO BEEFED UP THE WINDS IN THE FAVORED AREAS
TONIGHT BUT DOESN`T LOOK MORE THAN WINDY IN THE NORMAL AREAS. SOME
BREEZES RETURN FRIDAY IN THE W-NW FAVORED FLOW AREAS BUT LESS THAN
TODAY. OTHERWISE...JUST WARMER...DRIER WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND
OVERALL LESS WIND.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

A DRY AND MILD WEST NORTHWEST FLOW DURING THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE
DEFINING FEATURE OF THE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST
WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OFF THE PACIFIC AT 145W WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AS A DRY WINDY TROUGH. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THIS EVENT CLOSELY AS THE LAST TROUGH THAT RESEMBLED THIS
ONE FIRST APPEARED IN THE MODELS AS IF THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WOULD
REMAIN ABOVE 15 PERCENT WHERE THE FUELS ARE ALREADY CRITICAL BIT
WOUND UP APPROACHING 10 PERCENT WHEN THE DAY OF CONCERNED ACTUALLY
ARRIVED ONE WEEK PRIOR TO THIS EVENT. MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE WINDS WILL CERTAINLY BE WITHIN CRITERIA FROM RKS TO CPR AND EVEN
AT RIW ON SATURDAY. AS FAR AS ANY PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE IS
CONCERNED...ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS OF A ROUGE T SHOWER COULD OCCUR
OVER THE NW MTNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH MEAGER MOISTURE AND
NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES. THEN THE WEST NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES WITH THE
NEXT WEAK RIPPLE IN THE FLOW EXPECTED SUNDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY
WITHOUT MUCH FANFARE. THE NEXT TROUGH OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE WILL
ARRIVE TUESDAY IN THE FORM OF MORE DRY WINDY WEATHER. HOWEVER...THE
NW MTNS COULD AGAIN SEE ISOLD SHOWERS FROM NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES
AND SUFFICIENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. THEN THURSDAY IS THE
DAY THAT THE GFS AND THE EURO DIVERGE WITH THE GFS INDICATING
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS WY ALONG WITH A WELL
DEFINED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION FORMING RIGHT OVER THE CENTER OF WY
ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD OF WY. THE EURO
SHOWS NOTHING...JUST A STRAIGHT WEST NORTHWEST FLOW. KEPT POPS AS IS
FOR NOW. DID NOT WANT TO RAISE THU POPS BECAUSE OF REMAINING MODEL
UNCERTAINTY AND NONE OF OUR NEIGHBORS HAVE INCREASED THEIR POPS
EITHER.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. GUSTY
W-NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS IN
THE UPPER GREEN...RED DESERT/I80 CORRIDOR WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND
THEN INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY BUT THEY WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS TODAY.
THE CODY FOOTHILLS INCLUDING THE KCOD TERMINAL MAY SEE SOME STRONG
WEST WIND AT TIMES TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST WITH DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS. FRIDAY WILL BE ABOUT
8-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. WITH MIN RH`S EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND
IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...LOWERING INTO THE 20S WITH LOCAL MIN
RH`S IN THE UPPER TEENS. THE NORTHWEST WILL BE MORE MOIST WITH MIN
RH`S IN THE 30S AND 40S. GUSTY W-NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
EAST SLOPE OF MOST OF THE MOUNTAIN RANGES THROUGH FRIDAY. THE CODY
FOOTHILLS WILL ALSO SEE SOME GUSTY TO BRIEF STRONG WEST WINDS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN FROM KBPI AND KPNA TO
KRKS WILL ALSO SEE GUSTY W-NW WIND THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
DECREASING SOME. MORE WIND WILL RETURN FRIDAY BUT NOT AS STRONG AS
TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

A MORE ELEVATED FIRE RISK WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY EAST OF THE DIVIDE
DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES...MIN RH`S IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
AND INCREASING WEST WIND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PS
LONG TERM...LIPSON
AVIATION...PS
FIRE WEATHER...PS







000
FXUS65 KRIW 261935
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
135 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
CLOUDINESS GRADUALLY DECREASING TONIGHT LEAVING ALL BUT THE NE
CORNER SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY ON FRIDAY. A FEW FLURRIES WERE NOTED
OVER THE HIGHER NRN MTNS THIS MORNING BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. FRIDAY
WILL BE ANOTHER 8-10 DEGREES WARMER FOR MANY AREAS. BREEZY TO WINDY
NW WIND AREAS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE DECREASING.
THE CODY FOOTHILLS ARE SHOWING A LITTLE MTN WAVE ACTION AND MODEST
GAP FLOW POTENTIAL SO BEEFED UP THE WINDS IN THE FAVORED AREAS
TONIGHT BUT DOESN`T LOOK MORE THAN WINDY IN THE NORMAL AREAS. SOME
BREEZES RETURN FRIDAY IN THE W-NW FAVORED FLOW AREAS BUT LESS THAN
TODAY. OTHERWISE...JUST WARMER...DRIER WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND
OVERALL LESS WIND.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

A DRY AND MILD WEST NORTHWEST FLOW DURING THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE
DEFINING FEATURE OF THE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST
WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OFF THE PACIFIC AT 145W WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AS A DRY WINDY TROUGH. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THIS EVENT CLOSELY AS THE LAST TROUGH THAT RESEMBLED THIS
ONE FIRST APPEARED IN THE MODELS AS IF THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WOULD
REMAIN ABOVE 15 PERCENT WHERE THE FUELS ARE ALREADY CRITICAL BIT
WOUND UP APPROACHING 10 PERCENT WHEN THE DAY OF CONCERNED ACTUALLY
ARRIVED ONE WEEK PRIOR TO THIS EVENT. MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE WINDS WILL CERTAINLY BE WITHIN CRITERIA FROM RKS TO CPR AND EVEN
AT RIW ON SATURDAY. AS FAR AS ANY PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE IS
CONCERNED...ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS OF A ROUGE T SHOWER COULD OCCUR
OVER THE NW MTNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH MEAGER MOISTURE AND
NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES. THEN THE WEST NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES WITH THE
NEXT WEAK RIPPLE IN THE FLOW EXPECTED SUNDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY
WITHOUT MUCH FANFARE. THE NEXT TROUGH OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE WILL
ARRIVE TUESDAY IN THE FORM OF MORE DRY WINDY WEATHER. HOWEVER...THE
NW MTNS COULD AGAIN SEE ISOLD SHOWERS FROM NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES
AND SUFFICIENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. THEN THURSDAY IS THE
DAY THAT THE GFS AND THE EURO DIVERGE WITH THE GFS INDICATING
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS WY ALONG WITH A WELL
DEFINED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION FORMING RIGHT OVER THE CENTER OF WY
ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD OF WY. THE EURO
SHOWS NOTHING...JUST A STRAIGHT WEST NORTHWEST FLOW. KEPT POPS AS IS
FOR NOW. DID NOT WANT TO RAISE THU POPS BECAUSE OF REMAINING MODEL
UNCERTAINTY AND NONE OF OUR NEIGHBORS HAVE INCREASED THEIR POPS
EITHER.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. GUSTY
W-NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS IN
THE UPPER GREEN...RED DESERT/I80 CORRIDOR WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND
THEN INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY BUT THEY WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS TODAY.
THE CODY FOOTHILLS INCLUDING THE KCOD TERMINAL MAY SEE SOME STRONG
WEST WIND AT TIMES TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST WITH DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS. FRIDAY WILL BE ABOUT
8-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. WITH MIN RH`S EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND
IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...LOWERING INTO THE 20S WITH LOCAL MIN
RH`S IN THE UPPER TEENS. THE NORTHWEST WILL BE MORE MOIST WITH MIN
RH`S IN THE 30S AND 40S. GUSTY W-NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
EAST SLOPE OF MOST OF THE MOUNTAIN RANGES THROUGH FRIDAY. THE CODY
FOOTHILLS WILL ALSO SEE SOME GUSTY TO BRIEF STRONG WEST WINDS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN FROM KBPI AND KPNA TO
KRKS WILL ALSO SEE GUSTY W-NW WIND THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
DECREASING SOME. MORE WIND WILL RETURN FRIDAY BUT NOT AS STRONG AS
TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

A MORE ELEVATED FIRE RISK WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY EAST OF THE DIVIDE
DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES...MIN RH`S IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
AND INCREASING WEST WIND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PS
LONG TERM...LIPSON
AVIATION...PS
FIRE WEATHER...PS






000
FXUS65 KRIW 261743
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1143 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
SATELLITE DEMONSTRATES SOME OF THE LAST MOISTURE TO BE ARRIVING
ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING THIS MORNING. THIS PUSH OF MOISTURE MAY
GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SHOWERS WILL
TAPER OFF THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE PREVAILING WEATHER PATTERN FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. AN APPROACHING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY SATURDAY...AND MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA...IT
WILL GENERATE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING...MAINLY
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. MODELS DO HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH
TIMING REGARDING THIS LATE PERIOD SYSTEM...RESULTING IN LOWERED
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN THE FORECAST. REGARDLESS TO
TIMING...MODELS DO INDICATE SOME DECENT INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WEAK RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A
SHORTWAVE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN RIDGE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IMPACT
FROM THIS SHORTWAVE MAINLY TO BE FELT OVER THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF WYOMING. THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS DUE TO LIFT ALONE LATER ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT COULD BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS TO BOTH
THE BIGHORN AND ABSAROKA RANGES. STRONG WESTERLY FLOW TO RESULT IN
BREEZY TO STRONG SURFACE WIND OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER
ELEVATIONS EAST OF THE DIVIDE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD MONDAY AND CONTINUED WARM ON
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE THEN MOVES ACROSS FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY. MOST OF
WEST CENTRAL WYOMING GENERALLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY WESTERLY
FLOW ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. GUSTY
W-NW WINDS ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE DIVIDE...VCNTY
KCOD-KRIW...WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES. THE WIND IN THESE AREAS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
WIDESPREAD DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEING WARMING AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. DURING THIS TIME...DAYTIME RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL DECREASE...WITH SOME TEENS ANTICIPATED BY SATURDAY.
THESE LOWERED HUMIDITIES WILL BE FOUND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE...WHICH SHOULD REACH INTO THE STATE BY SATURDAY
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...POTENTIALLY BRINGING SOME
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WIND.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRANHAM
LONG TERM...KPL
AVIATION...PS
FIRE WEATHER...BRANHAM







000
FXUS65 KRIW 261743
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1143 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
SATELLITE DEMONSTRATES SOME OF THE LAST MOISTURE TO BE ARRIVING
ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING THIS MORNING. THIS PUSH OF MOISTURE MAY
GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SHOWERS WILL
TAPER OFF THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE PREVAILING WEATHER PATTERN FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. AN APPROACHING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY SATURDAY...AND MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA...IT
WILL GENERATE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING...MAINLY
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. MODELS DO HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH
TIMING REGARDING THIS LATE PERIOD SYSTEM...RESULTING IN LOWERED
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN THE FORECAST. REGARDLESS TO
TIMING...MODELS DO INDICATE SOME DECENT INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WEAK RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A
SHORTWAVE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN RIDGE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IMPACT
FROM THIS SHORTWAVE MAINLY TO BE FELT OVER THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF WYOMING. THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS DUE TO LIFT ALONE LATER ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT COULD BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS TO BOTH
THE BIGHORN AND ABSAROKA RANGES. STRONG WESTERLY FLOW TO RESULT IN
BREEZY TO STRONG SURFACE WIND OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER
ELEVATIONS EAST OF THE DIVIDE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD MONDAY AND CONTINUED WARM ON
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE THEN MOVES ACROSS FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY. MOST OF
WEST CENTRAL WYOMING GENERALLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY WESTERLY
FLOW ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. GUSTY
W-NW WINDS ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE DIVIDE...VCNTY
KCOD-KRIW...WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES. THE WIND IN THESE AREAS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
WIDESPREAD DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEING WARMING AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. DURING THIS TIME...DAYTIME RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL DECREASE...WITH SOME TEENS ANTICIPATED BY SATURDAY.
THESE LOWERED HUMIDITIES WILL BE FOUND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE...WHICH SHOULD REACH INTO THE STATE BY SATURDAY
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...POTENTIALLY BRINGING SOME
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WIND.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRANHAM
LONG TERM...KPL
AVIATION...PS
FIRE WEATHER...BRANHAM








000
FXUS65 KCYS 261735 AAB
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1135 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 948 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST RIGHT ON TRACK FOR TODAY SO NO UPDATES EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION GOING TODAY AND THIS
EVENING AS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES INTO THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA BUT MAINLY LOOKING
AT VIRGA. IT WILL BE WINDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. STILL
LOOKS MARGINAL FOR ADVISORY TYPE WIND SPEEDS INTO THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. CONSIDERING CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN ON
THE THINKER SIDE...DEEPER MIXING AND THUS STRONGER WIND GUSTS ARE
LESS LIKELY. SO MOST LIKELY WILL NOT BE ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY
TODAY BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

NO MAJOR WEATHER IMPACTS IN THE NEAR TERM. FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES EARLY THIS AM ON THE EAST SIDE OF A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. 09Z WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS A PLUME OF MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL MT ALONG THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE. SHOULD SEE THIS SPREAD INTO
THE CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LARGER SCALE LIFT IMPROVES WITHIN
THE EXIT REGION OF A 100 KT H25 JET. BEST LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF OUR
AREA...BUT STILL EXPECT ENOUGH SUPPORT WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SHOWERS. KEPT ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED POPS GOING NORTHEAST. GFS LIFTED INDICES REMAIN POSITIVE
THROUGH THE DAY...SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY THUNDER. STRONG SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ORIENTED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS PRESSURE
FALLS SPREAD INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL NE. WITH A BROAD SWATH OF 30 TO 35
KT H7 FLOW ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...IT WILL NOT TAKE
LONG AFTER SUNRISE TO CRANK UP THE WINDS. NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
BOTH SUGGEST A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLE
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTN. WE MAY GET VERY CLOSE TO ADVISORY
LEVELS...BUT OBSERVED CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM ON IR SATELLITE SUGGESTS
MODELS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO EFFICIENT WITH LLVL MIXING. BEST CHANCE
FOR 40 MPH GUSTS WOULD BE OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR FRI AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD
INTO THE ROCKIES. IT WILL BE WARMER WITH GFS H7 TEMPS CLIMBING BACK
ABOVE 0 DEG C. WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO SAT WITH MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON H7 TEMPS EXCEEDING +5 DEG C BY 00Z SUN. LLVL DOWNSLOPE
LOOKS MUCH BETTER THAN FRI...SO EXPECT A VERY WARM DAY WITH RECORD
HIGHS POSSIBLE. WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE WARMEST GUIDANCE...BUT
EVEN THAT COULD BE CONSERVATIVE. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DEEP MIXING WITH
AMPLE SUNSHINE BENEATH THE RIDGE. WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN TO AROUND
40 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...SO FIRE WEATHER STILL LOOKS
TO BE AN ISSUE ON SAT AFTN. MOST LIKELY WILL NEED RED FLAG PRODUCTS
AS WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER. OTHERWISE...NOT A WHOLE LOT TO SPEAK OF
IN THE SHORT TERM. WARM AND BREEZY WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

A PROGRESSIVE AND INCREASINGLY ZONAL PATTERN WILL PRODUCE A
GENERALLY DRY PERIOD WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
PROBLEMS EMERGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD THOUGH...AS 00Z MODELS
STRUGGLE RESOLVING THE STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THRU
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED
DEEPER WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...WHILE THE 00Z GFS PASSES THE BULK OF
THE ENERGY NORTH OF THE CWFA THRU THE NRN PLAINS. THE DIFFERENCES
WOULD BE NOTICEABLE WITH THE ECMWF MUCH WETTER ACROSS NRN AND ERN
ZONES WITH A STRONGER FROPA...WHILE THE GFS WOULD KEEP THE FROPA
DRY. FOR NOW...HAVE SIDED WITH THE LESS AMPLIFIED GFS GIVEN ITS
BETTER RUN-TO- RUN CONSISTENCY. ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS
CLOSELY OVR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SUNDAY WILL BE BREEZIER/COOLER
BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FROPA... WITH HIGHS HOLDING GENERALLY IN
THE 60S MOST LOCATIONS. NW FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BECOME MORE
WESTERLY AS THE WEEK WEARS ON. PROGD LIFTED INDICES FALL BELOW
ZERO IN THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY. NW STEERING FLOW
ALOFT WOULD TAKE ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY SOUTH INTO COLORADO PRETTY
QUICKLY...SO DONT ENVISION ANY IMPACTS OVR ADJACENT LOWER
ELEVATIONS. OTHERWISE...THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S WITH PERHAPS SOME LOW 70S
OVR LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE WAS MADE FROM THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE HERE AT
MID-DAY. MAINLY A WIND FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS MIXING DOWN THROUGH SUNSET...A SLIGHT
LULL IN GUSTIER WINDS OVERNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES A
BIT...THEN A RETURN OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TOMORROW AT 20G30KTS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE MID-DECK OF CLOUDS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...BUT VFR CATEGORY WILL
PREVAIL AT ALL AIRPORTS THROUGH LATE TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRI. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON SAT. NEAR RECORD HIGHS WILL COMBINE WITH A
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS TO PRODUCE VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...CLH




000
FXUS65 KCYS 261735 AAB
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1135 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 948 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST RIGHT ON TRACK FOR TODAY SO NO UPDATES EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION GOING TODAY AND THIS
EVENING AS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES INTO THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA BUT MAINLY LOOKING
AT VIRGA. IT WILL BE WINDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. STILL
LOOKS MARGINAL FOR ADVISORY TYPE WIND SPEEDS INTO THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. CONSIDERING CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN ON
THE THINKER SIDE...DEEPER MIXING AND THUS STRONGER WIND GUSTS ARE
LESS LIKELY. SO MOST LIKELY WILL NOT BE ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY
TODAY BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

NO MAJOR WEATHER IMPACTS IN THE NEAR TERM. FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES EARLY THIS AM ON THE EAST SIDE OF A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. 09Z WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS A PLUME OF MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL MT ALONG THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE. SHOULD SEE THIS SPREAD INTO
THE CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LARGER SCALE LIFT IMPROVES WITHIN
THE EXIT REGION OF A 100 KT H25 JET. BEST LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF OUR
AREA...BUT STILL EXPECT ENOUGH SUPPORT WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SHOWERS. KEPT ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED POPS GOING NORTHEAST. GFS LIFTED INDICES REMAIN POSITIVE
THROUGH THE DAY...SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY THUNDER. STRONG SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ORIENTED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS PRESSURE
FALLS SPREAD INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL NE. WITH A BROAD SWATH OF 30 TO 35
KT H7 FLOW ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...IT WILL NOT TAKE
LONG AFTER SUNRISE TO CRANK UP THE WINDS. NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
BOTH SUGGEST A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLE
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTN. WE MAY GET VERY CLOSE TO ADVISORY
LEVELS...BUT OBSERVED CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM ON IR SATELLITE SUGGESTS
MODELS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO EFFICIENT WITH LLVL MIXING. BEST CHANCE
FOR 40 MPH GUSTS WOULD BE OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR FRI AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD
INTO THE ROCKIES. IT WILL BE WARMER WITH GFS H7 TEMPS CLIMBING BACK
ABOVE 0 DEG C. WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO SAT WITH MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON H7 TEMPS EXCEEDING +5 DEG C BY 00Z SUN. LLVL DOWNSLOPE
LOOKS MUCH BETTER THAN FRI...SO EXPECT A VERY WARM DAY WITH RECORD
HIGHS POSSIBLE. WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE WARMEST GUIDANCE...BUT
EVEN THAT COULD BE CONSERVATIVE. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DEEP MIXING WITH
AMPLE SUNSHINE BENEATH THE RIDGE. WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN TO AROUND
40 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...SO FIRE WEATHER STILL LOOKS
TO BE AN ISSUE ON SAT AFTN. MOST LIKELY WILL NEED RED FLAG PRODUCTS
AS WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER. OTHERWISE...NOT A WHOLE LOT TO SPEAK OF
IN THE SHORT TERM. WARM AND BREEZY WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

A PROGRESSIVE AND INCREASINGLY ZONAL PATTERN WILL PRODUCE A
GENERALLY DRY PERIOD WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
PROBLEMS EMERGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD THOUGH...AS 00Z MODELS
STRUGGLE RESOLVING THE STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THRU
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED
DEEPER WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...WHILE THE 00Z GFS PASSES THE BULK OF
THE ENERGY NORTH OF THE CWFA THRU THE NRN PLAINS. THE DIFFERENCES
WOULD BE NOTICEABLE WITH THE ECMWF MUCH WETTER ACROSS NRN AND ERN
ZONES WITH A STRONGER FROPA...WHILE THE GFS WOULD KEEP THE FROPA
DRY. FOR NOW...HAVE SIDED WITH THE LESS AMPLIFIED GFS GIVEN ITS
BETTER RUN-TO- RUN CONSISTENCY. ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS
CLOSELY OVR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SUNDAY WILL BE BREEZIER/COOLER
BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FROPA... WITH HIGHS HOLDING GENERALLY IN
THE 60S MOST LOCATIONS. NW FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BECOME MORE
WESTERLY AS THE WEEK WEARS ON. PROGD LIFTED INDICES FALL BELOW
ZERO IN THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY. NW STEERING FLOW
ALOFT WOULD TAKE ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY SOUTH INTO COLORADO PRETTY
QUICKLY...SO DONT ENVISION ANY IMPACTS OVR ADJACENT LOWER
ELEVATIONS. OTHERWISE...THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S WITH PERHAPS SOME LOW 70S
OVR LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE WAS MADE FROM THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE HERE AT
MID-DAY. MAINLY A WIND FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS MIXING DOWN THROUGH SUNSET...A SLIGHT
LULL IN GUSTIER WINDS OVERNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES A
BIT...THEN A RETURN OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TOMORROW AT 20G30KTS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE MID-DECK OF CLOUDS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...BUT VFR CATEGORY WILL
PREVAIL AT ALL AIRPORTS THROUGH LATE TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRI. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON SAT. NEAR RECORD HIGHS WILL COMBINE WITH A
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS TO PRODUCE VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...CLH



000
FXUS65 KCYS 261735 AAB
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1135 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 948 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST RIGHT ON TRACK FOR TODAY SO NO UPDATES EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION GOING TODAY AND THIS
EVENING AS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES INTO THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA BUT MAINLY LOOKING
AT VIRGA. IT WILL BE WINDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. STILL
LOOKS MARGINAL FOR ADVISORY TYPE WIND SPEEDS INTO THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. CONSIDERING CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN ON
THE THINKER SIDE...DEEPER MIXING AND THUS STRONGER WIND GUSTS ARE
LESS LIKELY. SO MOST LIKELY WILL NOT BE ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY
TODAY BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

NO MAJOR WEATHER IMPACTS IN THE NEAR TERM. FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES EARLY THIS AM ON THE EAST SIDE OF A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. 09Z WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS A PLUME OF MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL MT ALONG THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE. SHOULD SEE THIS SPREAD INTO
THE CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LARGER SCALE LIFT IMPROVES WITHIN
THE EXIT REGION OF A 100 KT H25 JET. BEST LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF OUR
AREA...BUT STILL EXPECT ENOUGH SUPPORT WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SHOWERS. KEPT ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED POPS GOING NORTHEAST. GFS LIFTED INDICES REMAIN POSITIVE
THROUGH THE DAY...SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY THUNDER. STRONG SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ORIENTED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS PRESSURE
FALLS SPREAD INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL NE. WITH A BROAD SWATH OF 30 TO 35
KT H7 FLOW ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...IT WILL NOT TAKE
LONG AFTER SUNRISE TO CRANK UP THE WINDS. NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
BOTH SUGGEST A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLE
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTN. WE MAY GET VERY CLOSE TO ADVISORY
LEVELS...BUT OBSERVED CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM ON IR SATELLITE SUGGESTS
MODELS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO EFFICIENT WITH LLVL MIXING. BEST CHANCE
FOR 40 MPH GUSTS WOULD BE OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR FRI AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD
INTO THE ROCKIES. IT WILL BE WARMER WITH GFS H7 TEMPS CLIMBING BACK
ABOVE 0 DEG C. WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO SAT WITH MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON H7 TEMPS EXCEEDING +5 DEG C BY 00Z SUN. LLVL DOWNSLOPE
LOOKS MUCH BETTER THAN FRI...SO EXPECT A VERY WARM DAY WITH RECORD
HIGHS POSSIBLE. WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE WARMEST GUIDANCE...BUT
EVEN THAT COULD BE CONSERVATIVE. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DEEP MIXING WITH
AMPLE SUNSHINE BENEATH THE RIDGE. WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN TO AROUND
40 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...SO FIRE WEATHER STILL LOOKS
TO BE AN ISSUE ON SAT AFTN. MOST LIKELY WILL NEED RED FLAG PRODUCTS
AS WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER. OTHERWISE...NOT A WHOLE LOT TO SPEAK OF
IN THE SHORT TERM. WARM AND BREEZY WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

A PROGRESSIVE AND INCREASINGLY ZONAL PATTERN WILL PRODUCE A
GENERALLY DRY PERIOD WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
PROBLEMS EMERGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD THOUGH...AS 00Z MODELS
STRUGGLE RESOLVING THE STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THRU
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED
DEEPER WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...WHILE THE 00Z GFS PASSES THE BULK OF
THE ENERGY NORTH OF THE CWFA THRU THE NRN PLAINS. THE DIFFERENCES
WOULD BE NOTICEABLE WITH THE ECMWF MUCH WETTER ACROSS NRN AND ERN
ZONES WITH A STRONGER FROPA...WHILE THE GFS WOULD KEEP THE FROPA
DRY. FOR NOW...HAVE SIDED WITH THE LESS AMPLIFIED GFS GIVEN ITS
BETTER RUN-TO- RUN CONSISTENCY. ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS
CLOSELY OVR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SUNDAY WILL BE BREEZIER/COOLER
BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FROPA... WITH HIGHS HOLDING GENERALLY IN
THE 60S MOST LOCATIONS. NW FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BECOME MORE
WESTERLY AS THE WEEK WEARS ON. PROGD LIFTED INDICES FALL BELOW
ZERO IN THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY. NW STEERING FLOW
ALOFT WOULD TAKE ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY SOUTH INTO COLORADO PRETTY
QUICKLY...SO DONT ENVISION ANY IMPACTS OVR ADJACENT LOWER
ELEVATIONS. OTHERWISE...THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S WITH PERHAPS SOME LOW 70S
OVR LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE WAS MADE FROM THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE HERE AT
MID-DAY. MAINLY A WIND FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS MIXING DOWN THROUGH SUNSET...A SLIGHT
LULL IN GUSTIER WINDS OVERNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES A
BIT...THEN A RETURN OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TOMORROW AT 20G30KTS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE MID-DECK OF CLOUDS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...BUT VFR CATEGORY WILL
PREVAIL AT ALL AIRPORTS THROUGH LATE TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRI. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON SAT. NEAR RECORD HIGHS WILL COMBINE WITH A
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS TO PRODUCE VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...CLH



000
FXUS65 KCYS 261735 AAB
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1135 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 948 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST RIGHT ON TRACK FOR TODAY SO NO UPDATES EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION GOING TODAY AND THIS
EVENING AS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES INTO THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA BUT MAINLY LOOKING
AT VIRGA. IT WILL BE WINDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. STILL
LOOKS MARGINAL FOR ADVISORY TYPE WIND SPEEDS INTO THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. CONSIDERING CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN ON
THE THINKER SIDE...DEEPER MIXING AND THUS STRONGER WIND GUSTS ARE
LESS LIKELY. SO MOST LIKELY WILL NOT BE ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY
TODAY BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

NO MAJOR WEATHER IMPACTS IN THE NEAR TERM. FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES EARLY THIS AM ON THE EAST SIDE OF A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. 09Z WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS A PLUME OF MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL MT ALONG THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE. SHOULD SEE THIS SPREAD INTO
THE CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LARGER SCALE LIFT IMPROVES WITHIN
THE EXIT REGION OF A 100 KT H25 JET. BEST LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF OUR
AREA...BUT STILL EXPECT ENOUGH SUPPORT WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SHOWERS. KEPT ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED POPS GOING NORTHEAST. GFS LIFTED INDICES REMAIN POSITIVE
THROUGH THE DAY...SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY THUNDER. STRONG SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ORIENTED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS PRESSURE
FALLS SPREAD INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL NE. WITH A BROAD SWATH OF 30 TO 35
KT H7 FLOW ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...IT WILL NOT TAKE
LONG AFTER SUNRISE TO CRANK UP THE WINDS. NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
BOTH SUGGEST A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLE
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTN. WE MAY GET VERY CLOSE TO ADVISORY
LEVELS...BUT OBSERVED CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM ON IR SATELLITE SUGGESTS
MODELS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO EFFICIENT WITH LLVL MIXING. BEST CHANCE
FOR 40 MPH GUSTS WOULD BE OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR FRI AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD
INTO THE ROCKIES. IT WILL BE WARMER WITH GFS H7 TEMPS CLIMBING BACK
ABOVE 0 DEG C. WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO SAT WITH MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON H7 TEMPS EXCEEDING +5 DEG C BY 00Z SUN. LLVL DOWNSLOPE
LOOKS MUCH BETTER THAN FRI...SO EXPECT A VERY WARM DAY WITH RECORD
HIGHS POSSIBLE. WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE WARMEST GUIDANCE...BUT
EVEN THAT COULD BE CONSERVATIVE. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DEEP MIXING WITH
AMPLE SUNSHINE BENEATH THE RIDGE. WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN TO AROUND
40 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...SO FIRE WEATHER STILL LOOKS
TO BE AN ISSUE ON SAT AFTN. MOST LIKELY WILL NEED RED FLAG PRODUCTS
AS WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER. OTHERWISE...NOT A WHOLE LOT TO SPEAK OF
IN THE SHORT TERM. WARM AND BREEZY WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

A PROGRESSIVE AND INCREASINGLY ZONAL PATTERN WILL PRODUCE A
GENERALLY DRY PERIOD WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
PROBLEMS EMERGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD THOUGH...AS 00Z MODELS
STRUGGLE RESOLVING THE STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THRU
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED
DEEPER WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...WHILE THE 00Z GFS PASSES THE BULK OF
THE ENERGY NORTH OF THE CWFA THRU THE NRN PLAINS. THE DIFFERENCES
WOULD BE NOTICEABLE WITH THE ECMWF MUCH WETTER ACROSS NRN AND ERN
ZONES WITH A STRONGER FROPA...WHILE THE GFS WOULD KEEP THE FROPA
DRY. FOR NOW...HAVE SIDED WITH THE LESS AMPLIFIED GFS GIVEN ITS
BETTER RUN-TO- RUN CONSISTENCY. ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS
CLOSELY OVR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SUNDAY WILL BE BREEZIER/COOLER
BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FROPA... WITH HIGHS HOLDING GENERALLY IN
THE 60S MOST LOCATIONS. NW FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BECOME MORE
WESTERLY AS THE WEEK WEARS ON. PROGD LIFTED INDICES FALL BELOW
ZERO IN THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY. NW STEERING FLOW
ALOFT WOULD TAKE ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY SOUTH INTO COLORADO PRETTY
QUICKLY...SO DONT ENVISION ANY IMPACTS OVR ADJACENT LOWER
ELEVATIONS. OTHERWISE...THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S WITH PERHAPS SOME LOW 70S
OVR LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE WAS MADE FROM THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE HERE AT
MID-DAY. MAINLY A WIND FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS MIXING DOWN THROUGH SUNSET...A SLIGHT
LULL IN GUSTIER WINDS OVERNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES A
BIT...THEN A RETURN OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TOMORROW AT 20G30KTS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE MID-DECK OF CLOUDS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...BUT VFR CATEGORY WILL
PREVAIL AT ALL AIRPORTS THROUGH LATE TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRI. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON SAT. NEAR RECORD HIGHS WILL COMBINE WITH A
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS TO PRODUCE VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...CLH




000
FXUS63 KUNR 261734
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1134 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW NEAR KSPF...WHICH IS ALONG WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NORTH CENTRAL MT TO CENTRAL NE. BAND OF
-SHRASN AHEAD OF WARM FRONT UNDER LEFT EXIT REGION OF 140KT JET
STREAK STARTING TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN
ND/NORTHERN MN TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST. BEHIND IT....DECENT LAPSE
RATES WILL SUPPORT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AS WELL AS DIURNAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY -SHRA...EXCEPT OVER THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS.

FORECAST UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 255 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
PERTURBED NW FLOW ALOFT...SUPPORTING UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE FIRST OF TWO MID LEVEL IMPULSES IS IN THE PROCESS OF
ADVECTING SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK IS SUPPORTING INCREASING COVERAGE
OF PRECIP ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE FA. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MORNING. STEEP LL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH PAC MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT INSTABILITY SHRA OVER MOST OF THE FA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
SECONDARY IMPULSE SUPPORTING ANOTHER UPGLIDE PUSH TONIGHT...WITH
RESULTING CHANCES FOR MAINLY RAIN SHRA GIVEN WARM BL CONDS PER
ONGOING WAA. MUCH WARMER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AS THE LL
FRONTAL ZONE SHIFTS EAST...WITH WARM NW PAC FLOW SPREADING OVER
THE FA.

TODAY...FGEN SNOWS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MORNING ACROSS MAINLY THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FA. BEST FORCING WILL BE ALONG A NARROW BAND
ACROSS NW SD WHERE A QUICK INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...GIVEN
INCREASING CONVECTIVE NATURE PER STEEP MID AND LL LAPSE
RATES...DISRUPTION OF BETTER BANDING WILL LIKELY OCCUR LIMITING
SNOW AMOUNTS TO A DEGREE. MAIN LOBE OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL
SHIFT SE OUT OF THE REGION WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND STEEP LL LAPSE
RATES SUPPORTING MORE SHOWERY ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. ESP ACROSS NE
WY/THE BH/AND FAR WESTERN SD. WAA WILL SUPPORT MORE RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES...ESP OUTSIDE THE BH. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY WITH 40S AND LOWER 50S FOR HIGHS.

TONIGHT...SCT CONVECTIVE SHRA WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING...WITH
RENEWED CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE NEXT MID LEVEL
IMPULSE ARRIVES. WARM PROFILES PER ONGOING WAA WILL SUPPORT MAINLY
RAIN SHOWER CHANCES...SAVE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BH AND
PERHAPS NW SD WHERE COOLER BL CONDS WILL BE IN PLACE. ANY SNOWFALL
WILL BE MINIMAL GIVEN WARM CONDS. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 30S.

FRIDAY...LL FRONTAL ZONE WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST WITH ASSOCIATED
PRECIP CHANCES ENDING. DIURNAL INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH DEEP MIXING
AND MOIST NW FLOW COULD SUPPORT A FEW ISOLD HIGH BASED SHRA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ON THE SD PLAINS. HOWEVER...GIVEN SUBSIDENT FLOW
ALOFT...LEFT ANY WX MENTION OUT ATTM. MUCH WARMER CONDS EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 255 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

A VERY WARM START TO THE WEEKEND AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE PASSES OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHWEST SD IF
WINDS INCREASE ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS BEHIND IT.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ACROSS CNTRL SD AS THE BAND
OF SNOW PUSHES EAST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS MOST LOCATION. THE EXCEPTION IS MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVER
THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AREA WHERE LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES ALONG
WITH SNOW ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW AND
MVFR CONDITIONS. IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE BLACK HILLS. GUSTY
NW WINDS WILL END THIS EVENING...BUT RETURN FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...13







000
FXUS63 KUNR 261734
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1134 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW NEAR KSPF...WHICH IS ALONG WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NORTH CENTRAL MT TO CENTRAL NE. BAND OF
-SHRASN AHEAD OF WARM FRONT UNDER LEFT EXIT REGION OF 140KT JET
STREAK STARTING TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN
ND/NORTHERN MN TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST. BEHIND IT....DECENT LAPSE
RATES WILL SUPPORT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AS WELL AS DIURNAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY -SHRA...EXCEPT OVER THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS.

FORECAST UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 255 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
PERTURBED NW FLOW ALOFT...SUPPORTING UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE FIRST OF TWO MID LEVEL IMPULSES IS IN THE PROCESS OF
ADVECTING SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK IS SUPPORTING INCREASING COVERAGE
OF PRECIP ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE FA. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MORNING. STEEP LL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH PAC MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT INSTABILITY SHRA OVER MOST OF THE FA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
SECONDARY IMPULSE SUPPORTING ANOTHER UPGLIDE PUSH TONIGHT...WITH
RESULTING CHANCES FOR MAINLY RAIN SHRA GIVEN WARM BL CONDS PER
ONGOING WAA. MUCH WARMER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AS THE LL
FRONTAL ZONE SHIFTS EAST...WITH WARM NW PAC FLOW SPREADING OVER
THE FA.

TODAY...FGEN SNOWS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MORNING ACROSS MAINLY THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FA. BEST FORCING WILL BE ALONG A NARROW BAND
ACROSS NW SD WHERE A QUICK INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...GIVEN
INCREASING CONVECTIVE NATURE PER STEEP MID AND LL LAPSE
RATES...DISRUPTION OF BETTER BANDING WILL LIKELY OCCUR LIMITING
SNOW AMOUNTS TO A DEGREE. MAIN LOBE OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL
SHIFT SE OUT OF THE REGION WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND STEEP LL LAPSE
RATES SUPPORTING MORE SHOWERY ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. ESP ACROSS NE
WY/THE BH/AND FAR WESTERN SD. WAA WILL SUPPORT MORE RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES...ESP OUTSIDE THE BH. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY WITH 40S AND LOWER 50S FOR HIGHS.

TONIGHT...SCT CONVECTIVE SHRA WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING...WITH
RENEWED CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE NEXT MID LEVEL
IMPULSE ARRIVES. WARM PROFILES PER ONGOING WAA WILL SUPPORT MAINLY
RAIN SHOWER CHANCES...SAVE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BH AND
PERHAPS NW SD WHERE COOLER BL CONDS WILL BE IN PLACE. ANY SNOWFALL
WILL BE MINIMAL GIVEN WARM CONDS. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 30S.

FRIDAY...LL FRONTAL ZONE WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST WITH ASSOCIATED
PRECIP CHANCES ENDING. DIURNAL INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH DEEP MIXING
AND MOIST NW FLOW COULD SUPPORT A FEW ISOLD HIGH BASED SHRA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ON THE SD PLAINS. HOWEVER...GIVEN SUBSIDENT FLOW
ALOFT...LEFT ANY WX MENTION OUT ATTM. MUCH WARMER CONDS EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 255 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

A VERY WARM START TO THE WEEKEND AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE PASSES OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHWEST SD IF
WINDS INCREASE ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS BEHIND IT.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ACROSS CNTRL SD AS THE BAND
OF SNOW PUSHES EAST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS MOST LOCATION. THE EXCEPTION IS MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVER
THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AREA WHERE LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES ALONG
WITH SNOW ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW AND
MVFR CONDITIONS. IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE BLACK HILLS. GUSTY
NW WINDS WILL END THIS EVENING...BUT RETURN FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...13








000
FXUS63 KUNR 261606
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1006 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW NEAR KSPF...WHICH IS ALONG WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NORTH CENTRAL MT TO CENTRAL NE. BAND OF
-SHRASN AHEAD OF WARM FRONT UNDER LEFT EXIT REGION OF 140KT JET
STREAK STARTING TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN
ND/NORTHERN MN TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST. BEHIND IT....DECENT LAPSE
RATES WILL SUPPORT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AS WELL AS DIURNAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY -SHRA...EXCEPT OVER THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS.

FORECAST UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 255 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
PERTURBED NW FLOW ALOFT...SUPPORTING UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE FIRST OF TWO MID LEVEL IMPULSES IS IN THE PROCESS OF
ADVECTING SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK IS SUPPORTING INCREASING COVERAGE
OF PRECIP ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE FA. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MORNING. STEEP LL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH PAC MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT INSTABILITY SHRA OVER MOST OF THE FA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
SECONDARY IMPULSE SUPPORTING ANOTHER UPGLIDE PUSH TONIGHT...WITH
RESULTING CHANCES FOR MAINLY RAIN SHRA GIVEN WARM BL CONDS PER
ONGOING WAA. MUCH WARMER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AS THE LL
FRONTAL ZONE SHIFTS EAST...WITH WARM NW PAC FLOW SPREADING OVER
THE FA.

TODAY...FGEN SNOWS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MORNING ACROSS MAINLY THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FA. BEST FORCING WILL BE ALONG A NARROW BAND
ACROSS NW SD WHERE A QUICK INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...GIVEN
INCREASING CONVECTIVE NATURE PER STEEP MID AND LL LAPSE
RATES...DISRUPTION OF BETTER BANDING WILL LIKELY OCCUR LIMITING
SNOW AMOUNTS TO A DEGREE. MAIN LOBE OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL
SHIFT SE OUT OF THE REGION WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND STEEP LL LAPSE
RATES SUPPORTING MORE SHOWERY ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. ESP ACROSS NE
WY/THE BH/AND FAR WESTERN SD. WAA WILL SUPPORT MORE RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES...ESP OUTSIDE THE BH. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY WITH 40S AND LOWER 50S FOR HIGHS.

TONIGHT...SCT CONVECTIVE SHRA WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING...WITH
RENEWED CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE NEXT MID LEVEL
IMPULSE ARRIVES. WARM PROFILES PER ONGOING WAA WILL SUPPORT MAINLY
RAIN SHOWER CHANCES...SAVE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BH AND
PERHAPS NW SD WHERE COOLER BL CONDS WILL BE IN PLACE. ANY SNOWFALL
WILL BE MINIMAL GIVEN WARM CONDS. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 30S.

FRIDAY...LL FRONTAL ZONE WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST WITH ASSOCIATED
PRECIP CHANCES ENDING. DIURNAL INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH DEEP MIXING
AND MOIST NW FLOW COULD SUPPORT A FEW ISOLD HIGH BASED SHRA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ON THE SD PLAINS. HOWEVER...GIVEN SUBSIDENT FLOW
ALOFT...LEFT ANY WX MENTION OUT ATTM. MUCH WARMER CONDS EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 255 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

A VERY WARM START TO THE WEEKEND AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE PASSES OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHWEST SD IF
WINDS INCREASE ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS BEHIND IT.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 542 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS MOSTLY FAR NORTHEAST WY AND WESTERN SD THIS MORNING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE QUICKLY SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE IN MOST AREAS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON...
EXCEPT OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AREA. ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW AND MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS65 KCYS 261558
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
958 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 948 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST RIGHT ON TRACK FOR TODAY SO NO UPDATES EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION GOING TODAY AND THIS
EVENING AS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES INTO THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA BUT MAINLY LOOKING
AT VIRGA. IT WILL BE WINDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. STILL
LOOKS MARGINAL FOR ADVISORY TYPE WIND SPEEDS INTO THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. CONSIDERING CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN ON
THE THINKER SIDE...DEEPER MIXING AND THUS STRONGER WIND GUSTS ARE
LESS LIKELY. SO MOST LIKELY WILL NOT BE ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY
TODAY BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

NO MAJOR WEATHER IMPACTS IN THE NEAR TERM. FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES EARLY THIS AM ON THE EAST SIDE OF A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. 09Z WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS A PLUME OF MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL MT ALONG THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE. SHOULD SEE THIS SPREAD INTO
THE CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LARGER SCALE LIFT IMPROVES WITHIN
THE EXIT REGION OF A 100 KT H25 JET. BEST LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF OUR
AREA...BUT STILL EXPECT ENOUGH SUPPORT WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SHOWERS. KEPT ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED POPS GOING NORTHEAST. GFS LIFTED INDICES REMAIN POSITIVE
THROUGH THE DAY...SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY THUNDER. STRONG SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ORIENTED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS PRESSURE
FALLS SPREAD INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL NE. WITH A BROAD SWATH OF 30 TO 35
KT H7 FLOW ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...IT WILL NOT TAKE
LONG AFTER SUNRISE TO CRANK UP THE WINDS. NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
BOTH SUGGEST A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLE
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTN. WE MAY GET VERY CLOSE TO ADVISORY
LEVELS...BUT OBSERVED CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM ON IR SATELLITE SUGGESTS
MODELS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO EFFICIENT WITH LLVL MIXING. BEST CHANCE
FOR 40 MPH GUSTS WOULD BE OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR FRI AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD
INTO THE ROCKIES. IT WILL BE WARMER WITH GFS H7 TEMPS CLIMBING BACK
ABOVE 0 DEG C. WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO SAT WITH MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON H7 TEMPS EXCEEDING +5 DEG C BY 00Z SUN. LLVL DOWNSLOPE
LOOKS MUCH BETTER THAN FRI...SO EXPECT A VERY WARM DAY WITH RECORD
HIGHS POSSIBLE. WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE WARMEST GUIDANCE...BUT
EVEN THAT COULD BE CONSERVATIVE. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DEEP MIXING WITH
AMPLE SUNSHINE BENEATH THE RIDGE. WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN TO AROUND
40 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...SO FIRE WEATHER STILL LOOKS
TO BE AN ISSUE ON SAT AFTN. MOST LIKELY WILL NEED RED FLAG PRODUCTS
AS WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER. OTHERWISE...NOT A WHOLE LOT TO SPEAK OF
IN THE SHORT TERM. WARM AND BREEZY WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

A PROGRESSIVE AND INCREASINGLY ZONAL PATTERN WILL PRODUCE A
GENERALLY DRY PERIOD WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
PROBLEMS EMERGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD THOUGH...AS 00Z MODELS
STRUGGLE RESOLVING THE STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THRU
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED
DEEPER WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...WHILE THE 00Z GFS PASSES THE BULK OF
THE ENERGY NORTH OF THE CWFA THRU THE NRN PLAINS. THE DIFFERENCES
WOULD BE NOTICEABLE WITH THE ECMWF MUCH WETTER ACROSS NRN AND ERN
ZONES WITH A STRONGER FROPA...WHILE THE GFS WOULD KEEP THE FROPA
DRY. FOR NOW...HAVE SIDED WITH THE LESS AMPLIFIED GFS GIVEN ITS
BETTER RUN-TO- RUN CONSISTENCY. ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS
CLOSELY OVR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SUNDAY WILL BE BREEZIER/COOLER
BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FROPA... WITH HIGHS HOLDING GENERALLY IN
THE 60S MOST LOCATIONS. NW FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BECOME MORE
WESTERLY AS THE WEEK WEARS ON. PROGD LIFTED INDICES FALL BELOW
ZERO IN THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY. NW STEERING FLOW
ALOFT WOULD TAKE ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY SOUTH INTO COLORADO PRETTY
QUICKLY...SO DONT ENVISION ANY IMPACTS OVR ADJACENT LOWER
ELEVATIONS. OTHERWISE...THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S WITH PERHAPS SOME LOW 70S
OVR LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 537 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL
BE THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS COMMON ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING THRU THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRI. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON SAT. NEAR RECORD HIGHS WILL COMBINE WITH A
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS TO PRODUCE VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...CAH
FIRE WEATHER...CLH



000
FXUS65 KCYS 261558
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
958 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 948 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST RIGHT ON TRACK FOR TODAY SO NO UPDATES EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION GOING TODAY AND THIS
EVENING AS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES INTO THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA BUT MAINLY LOOKING
AT VIRGA. IT WILL BE WINDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. STILL
LOOKS MARGINAL FOR ADVISORY TYPE WIND SPEEDS INTO THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. CONSIDERING CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN ON
THE THINKER SIDE...DEEPER MIXING AND THUS STRONGER WIND GUSTS ARE
LESS LIKELY. SO MOST LIKELY WILL NOT BE ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY
TODAY BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

NO MAJOR WEATHER IMPACTS IN THE NEAR TERM. FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES EARLY THIS AM ON THE EAST SIDE OF A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. 09Z WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS A PLUME OF MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL MT ALONG THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE. SHOULD SEE THIS SPREAD INTO
THE CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LARGER SCALE LIFT IMPROVES WITHIN
THE EXIT REGION OF A 100 KT H25 JET. BEST LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF OUR
AREA...BUT STILL EXPECT ENOUGH SUPPORT WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SHOWERS. KEPT ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED POPS GOING NORTHEAST. GFS LIFTED INDICES REMAIN POSITIVE
THROUGH THE DAY...SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY THUNDER. STRONG SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ORIENTED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS PRESSURE
FALLS SPREAD INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL NE. WITH A BROAD SWATH OF 30 TO 35
KT H7 FLOW ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...IT WILL NOT TAKE
LONG AFTER SUNRISE TO CRANK UP THE WINDS. NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
BOTH SUGGEST A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLE
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTN. WE MAY GET VERY CLOSE TO ADVISORY
LEVELS...BUT OBSERVED CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM ON IR SATELLITE SUGGESTS
MODELS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO EFFICIENT WITH LLVL MIXING. BEST CHANCE
FOR 40 MPH GUSTS WOULD BE OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR FRI AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD
INTO THE ROCKIES. IT WILL BE WARMER WITH GFS H7 TEMPS CLIMBING BACK
ABOVE 0 DEG C. WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO SAT WITH MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON H7 TEMPS EXCEEDING +5 DEG C BY 00Z SUN. LLVL DOWNSLOPE
LOOKS MUCH BETTER THAN FRI...SO EXPECT A VERY WARM DAY WITH RECORD
HIGHS POSSIBLE. WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE WARMEST GUIDANCE...BUT
EVEN THAT COULD BE CONSERVATIVE. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DEEP MIXING WITH
AMPLE SUNSHINE BENEATH THE RIDGE. WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN TO AROUND
40 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...SO FIRE WEATHER STILL LOOKS
TO BE AN ISSUE ON SAT AFTN. MOST LIKELY WILL NEED RED FLAG PRODUCTS
AS WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER. OTHERWISE...NOT A WHOLE LOT TO SPEAK OF
IN THE SHORT TERM. WARM AND BREEZY WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

A PROGRESSIVE AND INCREASINGLY ZONAL PATTERN WILL PRODUCE A
GENERALLY DRY PERIOD WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
PROBLEMS EMERGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD THOUGH...AS 00Z MODELS
STRUGGLE RESOLVING THE STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THRU
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED
DEEPER WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...WHILE THE 00Z GFS PASSES THE BULK OF
THE ENERGY NORTH OF THE CWFA THRU THE NRN PLAINS. THE DIFFERENCES
WOULD BE NOTICEABLE WITH THE ECMWF MUCH WETTER ACROSS NRN AND ERN
ZONES WITH A STRONGER FROPA...WHILE THE GFS WOULD KEEP THE FROPA
DRY. FOR NOW...HAVE SIDED WITH THE LESS AMPLIFIED GFS GIVEN ITS
BETTER RUN-TO- RUN CONSISTENCY. ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS
CLOSELY OVR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SUNDAY WILL BE BREEZIER/COOLER
BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FROPA... WITH HIGHS HOLDING GENERALLY IN
THE 60S MOST LOCATIONS. NW FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BECOME MORE
WESTERLY AS THE WEEK WEARS ON. PROGD LIFTED INDICES FALL BELOW
ZERO IN THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY. NW STEERING FLOW
ALOFT WOULD TAKE ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY SOUTH INTO COLORADO PRETTY
QUICKLY...SO DONT ENVISION ANY IMPACTS OVR ADJACENT LOWER
ELEVATIONS. OTHERWISE...THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S WITH PERHAPS SOME LOW 70S
OVR LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 537 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL
BE THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS COMMON ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING THRU THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRI. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON SAT. NEAR RECORD HIGHS WILL COMBINE WITH A
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS TO PRODUCE VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...CAH
FIRE WEATHER...CLH



000
FXUS65 KCYS 261558
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
958 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 948 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST RIGHT ON TRACK FOR TODAY SO NO UPDATES EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION GOING TODAY AND THIS
EVENING AS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES INTO THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA BUT MAINLY LOOKING
AT VIRGA. IT WILL BE WINDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. STILL
LOOKS MARGINAL FOR ADVISORY TYPE WIND SPEEDS INTO THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. CONSIDERING CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN ON
THE THINKER SIDE...DEEPER MIXING AND THUS STRONGER WIND GUSTS ARE
LESS LIKELY. SO MOST LIKELY WILL NOT BE ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY
TODAY BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

NO MAJOR WEATHER IMPACTS IN THE NEAR TERM. FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES EARLY THIS AM ON THE EAST SIDE OF A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. 09Z WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS A PLUME OF MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL MT ALONG THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE. SHOULD SEE THIS SPREAD INTO
THE CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LARGER SCALE LIFT IMPROVES WITHIN
THE EXIT REGION OF A 100 KT H25 JET. BEST LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF OUR
AREA...BUT STILL EXPECT ENOUGH SUPPORT WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SHOWERS. KEPT ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED POPS GOING NORTHEAST. GFS LIFTED INDICES REMAIN POSITIVE
THROUGH THE DAY...SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY THUNDER. STRONG SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ORIENTED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS PRESSURE
FALLS SPREAD INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL NE. WITH A BROAD SWATH OF 30 TO 35
KT H7 FLOW ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...IT WILL NOT TAKE
LONG AFTER SUNRISE TO CRANK UP THE WINDS. NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
BOTH SUGGEST A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLE
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTN. WE MAY GET VERY CLOSE TO ADVISORY
LEVELS...BUT OBSERVED CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM ON IR SATELLITE SUGGESTS
MODELS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO EFFICIENT WITH LLVL MIXING. BEST CHANCE
FOR 40 MPH GUSTS WOULD BE OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR FRI AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD
INTO THE ROCKIES. IT WILL BE WARMER WITH GFS H7 TEMPS CLIMBING BACK
ABOVE 0 DEG C. WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO SAT WITH MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON H7 TEMPS EXCEEDING +5 DEG C BY 00Z SUN. LLVL DOWNSLOPE
LOOKS MUCH BETTER THAN FRI...SO EXPECT A VERY WARM DAY WITH RECORD
HIGHS POSSIBLE. WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE WARMEST GUIDANCE...BUT
EVEN THAT COULD BE CONSERVATIVE. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DEEP MIXING WITH
AMPLE SUNSHINE BENEATH THE RIDGE. WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN TO AROUND
40 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...SO FIRE WEATHER STILL LOOKS
TO BE AN ISSUE ON SAT AFTN. MOST LIKELY WILL NEED RED FLAG PRODUCTS
AS WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER. OTHERWISE...NOT A WHOLE LOT TO SPEAK OF
IN THE SHORT TERM. WARM AND BREEZY WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

A PROGRESSIVE AND INCREASINGLY ZONAL PATTERN WILL PRODUCE A
GENERALLY DRY PERIOD WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
PROBLEMS EMERGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD THOUGH...AS 00Z MODELS
STRUGGLE RESOLVING THE STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THRU
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED
DEEPER WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...WHILE THE 00Z GFS PASSES THE BULK OF
THE ENERGY NORTH OF THE CWFA THRU THE NRN PLAINS. THE DIFFERENCES
WOULD BE NOTICEABLE WITH THE ECMWF MUCH WETTER ACROSS NRN AND ERN
ZONES WITH A STRONGER FROPA...WHILE THE GFS WOULD KEEP THE FROPA
DRY. FOR NOW...HAVE SIDED WITH THE LESS AMPLIFIED GFS GIVEN ITS
BETTER RUN-TO- RUN CONSISTENCY. ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS
CLOSELY OVR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SUNDAY WILL BE BREEZIER/COOLER
BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FROPA... WITH HIGHS HOLDING GENERALLY IN
THE 60S MOST LOCATIONS. NW FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BECOME MORE
WESTERLY AS THE WEEK WEARS ON. PROGD LIFTED INDICES FALL BELOW
ZERO IN THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY. NW STEERING FLOW
ALOFT WOULD TAKE ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY SOUTH INTO COLORADO PRETTY
QUICKLY...SO DONT ENVISION ANY IMPACTS OVR ADJACENT LOWER
ELEVATIONS. OTHERWISE...THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S WITH PERHAPS SOME LOW 70S
OVR LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 537 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL
BE THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS COMMON ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING THRU THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRI. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON SAT. NEAR RECORD HIGHS WILL COMBINE WITH A
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS TO PRODUCE VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...CAH
FIRE WEATHER...CLH



000
FXUS65 KCYS 261558
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
958 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 948 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST RIGHT ON TRACK FOR TODAY SO NO UPDATES EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION GOING TODAY AND THIS
EVENING AS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES INTO THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA BUT MAINLY LOOKING
AT VIRGA. IT WILL BE WINDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. STILL
LOOKS MARGINAL FOR ADVISORY TYPE WIND SPEEDS INTO THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. CONSIDERING CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN ON
THE THINKER SIDE...DEEPER MIXING AND THUS STRONGER WIND GUSTS ARE
LESS LIKELY. SO MOST LIKELY WILL NOT BE ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY
TODAY BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

NO MAJOR WEATHER IMPACTS IN THE NEAR TERM. FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES EARLY THIS AM ON THE EAST SIDE OF A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. 09Z WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS A PLUME OF MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL MT ALONG THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE. SHOULD SEE THIS SPREAD INTO
THE CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LARGER SCALE LIFT IMPROVES WITHIN
THE EXIT REGION OF A 100 KT H25 JET. BEST LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF OUR
AREA...BUT STILL EXPECT ENOUGH SUPPORT WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SHOWERS. KEPT ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED POPS GOING NORTHEAST. GFS LIFTED INDICES REMAIN POSITIVE
THROUGH THE DAY...SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY THUNDER. STRONG SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ORIENTED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS PRESSURE
FALLS SPREAD INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL NE. WITH A BROAD SWATH OF 30 TO 35
KT H7 FLOW ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...IT WILL NOT TAKE
LONG AFTER SUNRISE TO CRANK UP THE WINDS. NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
BOTH SUGGEST A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLE
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTN. WE MAY GET VERY CLOSE TO ADVISORY
LEVELS...BUT OBSERVED CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM ON IR SATELLITE SUGGESTS
MODELS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO EFFICIENT WITH LLVL MIXING. BEST CHANCE
FOR 40 MPH GUSTS WOULD BE OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR FRI AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD
INTO THE ROCKIES. IT WILL BE WARMER WITH GFS H7 TEMPS CLIMBING BACK
ABOVE 0 DEG C. WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO SAT WITH MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON H7 TEMPS EXCEEDING +5 DEG C BY 00Z SUN. LLVL DOWNSLOPE
LOOKS MUCH BETTER THAN FRI...SO EXPECT A VERY WARM DAY WITH RECORD
HIGHS POSSIBLE. WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE WARMEST GUIDANCE...BUT
EVEN THAT COULD BE CONSERVATIVE. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DEEP MIXING WITH
AMPLE SUNSHINE BENEATH THE RIDGE. WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN TO AROUND
40 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...SO FIRE WEATHER STILL LOOKS
TO BE AN ISSUE ON SAT AFTN. MOST LIKELY WILL NEED RED FLAG PRODUCTS
AS WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER. OTHERWISE...NOT A WHOLE LOT TO SPEAK OF
IN THE SHORT TERM. WARM AND BREEZY WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

A PROGRESSIVE AND INCREASINGLY ZONAL PATTERN WILL PRODUCE A
GENERALLY DRY PERIOD WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
PROBLEMS EMERGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD THOUGH...AS 00Z MODELS
STRUGGLE RESOLVING THE STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THRU
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED
DEEPER WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...WHILE THE 00Z GFS PASSES THE BULK OF
THE ENERGY NORTH OF THE CWFA THRU THE NRN PLAINS. THE DIFFERENCES
WOULD BE NOTICEABLE WITH THE ECMWF MUCH WETTER ACROSS NRN AND ERN
ZONES WITH A STRONGER FROPA...WHILE THE GFS WOULD KEEP THE FROPA
DRY. FOR NOW...HAVE SIDED WITH THE LESS AMPLIFIED GFS GIVEN ITS
BETTER RUN-TO- RUN CONSISTENCY. ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS
CLOSELY OVR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SUNDAY WILL BE BREEZIER/COOLER
BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FROPA... WITH HIGHS HOLDING GENERALLY IN
THE 60S MOST LOCATIONS. NW FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BECOME MORE
WESTERLY AS THE WEEK WEARS ON. PROGD LIFTED INDICES FALL BELOW
ZERO IN THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY. NW STEERING FLOW
ALOFT WOULD TAKE ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY SOUTH INTO COLORADO PRETTY
QUICKLY...SO DONT ENVISION ANY IMPACTS OVR ADJACENT LOWER
ELEVATIONS. OTHERWISE...THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S WITH PERHAPS SOME LOW 70S
OVR LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 537 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL
BE THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS COMMON ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING THRU THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRI. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON SAT. NEAR RECORD HIGHS WILL COMBINE WITH A
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS TO PRODUCE VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...CAH
FIRE WEATHER...CLH



000
FXUS63 KUNR 261143
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
543 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 255 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
PERTURBED NW FLOW ALOFT...SUPPORTING UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE FIRST OF TWO MID LEVEL IMPULSES IS IN THE PROCESS OF
ADVECTING SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK IS SUPPORTING INCREASING COVERAGE
OF PRECIP ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE FA. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MORNING. STEEP LL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH PAC MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT INSTABILITY SHRA OVER MOST OF THE FA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
SECONDARY IMPULSE SUPPORTING ANOTHER UPGLIDE PUSH TONIGHT...WITH
RESULTING CHANCES FOR MAINLY RAIN SHRA GIVEN WARM BL CONDS PER
ONGOING WAA. MUCH WARMER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AS THE LL
FRONTAL ZONE SHIFTS EAST...WITH WARM NW PAC FLOW SPREADING OVER
THE FA.

TODAY...FGEN SNOWS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MORNING ACROSS MAINLY THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FA. BEST FORCING WILL BE ALONG A NARROW BAND
ACROSS NW SD WHERE A QUICK INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...GIVEN
INCREASING CONVECTIVE NATURE PER STEEP MID AND LL LAPSE
RATES...DISRUPTION OF BETTER BANDING WILL LIKELY OCCUR LIMITING
SNOW AMOUNTS TO A DEGREE. MAIN LOBE OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL
SHIFT SE OUT OF THE REGION WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND STEEP LL LAPSE
RATES SUPPORTING MORE SHOWERY ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. ESP ACROSS NE
WY/THE BH/AND FAR WESTERN SD. WAA WILL SUPPORT MORE RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES...ESP OUTSIDE THE BH. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY WITH 40S AND LOWER 50S FOR HIGHS.

TONIGHT...SCT CONVECTIVE SHRA WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING...WITH
RENEWED CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE NEXT MID LEVEL
IMPULSE ARRIVES. WARM PROFILES PER ONGOING WAA WILL SUPPORT MAINLY
RAIN SHOWER CHANCES...SAVE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BH AND
PERHAPS NW SD WHERE COOLER BL CONDS WILL BE IN PLACE. ANY SNOWFALL
WILL BE MINIMAL GIVEN WARM CONDS. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 30S.

FRIDAY...LL FRONTAL ZONE WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST WITH ASSOCIATED
PRECIP CHANCES ENDING. DIURNAL INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH DEEP MIXING
AND MOIST NW FLOW COULD SUPPORT A FEW ISOLD HIGH BASED SHRA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ON THE SD PLAINS. HOWEVER...GIVEN SUBSIDENT FLOW
ALOFT...LEFT ANY WX MENTION OUT ATTM. MUCH WARMER CONDS EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 255 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

A VERY WARM START TO THE WEEKEND AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE PASSES OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHWEST SD IF
WINDS INCREASE ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS BEHIND IT.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 542 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS MOSTLY FAR NORTHEAST WY AND WESTERN SD THIS MORNING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE QUICKLY SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE IN MOST AREAS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON...
EXCEPT OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AREA. ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW AND MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26






000
FXUS63 KUNR 261143
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
543 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 255 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
PERTURBED NW FLOW ALOFT...SUPPORTING UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE FIRST OF TWO MID LEVEL IMPULSES IS IN THE PROCESS OF
ADVECTING SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK IS SUPPORTING INCREASING COVERAGE
OF PRECIP ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE FA. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MORNING. STEEP LL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH PAC MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT INSTABILITY SHRA OVER MOST OF THE FA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
SECONDARY IMPULSE SUPPORTING ANOTHER UPGLIDE PUSH TONIGHT...WITH
RESULTING CHANCES FOR MAINLY RAIN SHRA GIVEN WARM BL CONDS PER
ONGOING WAA. MUCH WARMER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AS THE LL
FRONTAL ZONE SHIFTS EAST...WITH WARM NW PAC FLOW SPREADING OVER
THE FA.

TODAY...FGEN SNOWS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MORNING ACROSS MAINLY THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FA. BEST FORCING WILL BE ALONG A NARROW BAND
ACROSS NW SD WHERE A QUICK INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...GIVEN
INCREASING CONVECTIVE NATURE PER STEEP MID AND LL LAPSE
RATES...DISRUPTION OF BETTER BANDING WILL LIKELY OCCUR LIMITING
SNOW AMOUNTS TO A DEGREE. MAIN LOBE OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL
SHIFT SE OUT OF THE REGION WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND STEEP LL LAPSE
RATES SUPPORTING MORE SHOWERY ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. ESP ACROSS NE
WY/THE BH/AND FAR WESTERN SD. WAA WILL SUPPORT MORE RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES...ESP OUTSIDE THE BH. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY WITH 40S AND LOWER 50S FOR HIGHS.

TONIGHT...SCT CONVECTIVE SHRA WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING...WITH
RENEWED CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE NEXT MID LEVEL
IMPULSE ARRIVES. WARM PROFILES PER ONGOING WAA WILL SUPPORT MAINLY
RAIN SHOWER CHANCES...SAVE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BH AND
PERHAPS NW SD WHERE COOLER BL CONDS WILL BE IN PLACE. ANY SNOWFALL
WILL BE MINIMAL GIVEN WARM CONDS. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 30S.

FRIDAY...LL FRONTAL ZONE WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST WITH ASSOCIATED
PRECIP CHANCES ENDING. DIURNAL INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH DEEP MIXING
AND MOIST NW FLOW COULD SUPPORT A FEW ISOLD HIGH BASED SHRA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ON THE SD PLAINS. HOWEVER...GIVEN SUBSIDENT FLOW
ALOFT...LEFT ANY WX MENTION OUT ATTM. MUCH WARMER CONDS EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 255 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

A VERY WARM START TO THE WEEKEND AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE PASSES OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHWEST SD IF
WINDS INCREASE ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS BEHIND IT.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 542 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS MOSTLY FAR NORTHEAST WY AND WESTERN SD THIS MORNING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE QUICKLY SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE IN MOST AREAS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON...
EXCEPT OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AREA. ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW AND MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26






000
FXUS63 KUNR 261143
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
543 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 255 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
PERTURBED NW FLOW ALOFT...SUPPORTING UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE FIRST OF TWO MID LEVEL IMPULSES IS IN THE PROCESS OF
ADVECTING SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK IS SUPPORTING INCREASING COVERAGE
OF PRECIP ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE FA. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MORNING. STEEP LL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH PAC MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT INSTABILITY SHRA OVER MOST OF THE FA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
SECONDARY IMPULSE SUPPORTING ANOTHER UPGLIDE PUSH TONIGHT...WITH
RESULTING CHANCES FOR MAINLY RAIN SHRA GIVEN WARM BL CONDS PER
ONGOING WAA. MUCH WARMER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AS THE LL
FRONTAL ZONE SHIFTS EAST...WITH WARM NW PAC FLOW SPREADING OVER
THE FA.

TODAY...FGEN SNOWS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MORNING ACROSS MAINLY THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FA. BEST FORCING WILL BE ALONG A NARROW BAND
ACROSS NW SD WHERE A QUICK INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...GIVEN
INCREASING CONVECTIVE NATURE PER STEEP MID AND LL LAPSE
RATES...DISRUPTION OF BETTER BANDING WILL LIKELY OCCUR LIMITING
SNOW AMOUNTS TO A DEGREE. MAIN LOBE OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL
SHIFT SE OUT OF THE REGION WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND STEEP LL LAPSE
RATES SUPPORTING MORE SHOWERY ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. ESP ACROSS NE
WY/THE BH/AND FAR WESTERN SD. WAA WILL SUPPORT MORE RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES...ESP OUTSIDE THE BH. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY WITH 40S AND LOWER 50S FOR HIGHS.

TONIGHT...SCT CONVECTIVE SHRA WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING...WITH
RENEWED CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE NEXT MID LEVEL
IMPULSE ARRIVES. WARM PROFILES PER ONGOING WAA WILL SUPPORT MAINLY
RAIN SHOWER CHANCES...SAVE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BH AND
PERHAPS NW SD WHERE COOLER BL CONDS WILL BE IN PLACE. ANY SNOWFALL
WILL BE MINIMAL GIVEN WARM CONDS. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 30S.

FRIDAY...LL FRONTAL ZONE WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST WITH ASSOCIATED
PRECIP CHANCES ENDING. DIURNAL INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH DEEP MIXING
AND MOIST NW FLOW COULD SUPPORT A FEW ISOLD HIGH BASED SHRA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ON THE SD PLAINS. HOWEVER...GIVEN SUBSIDENT FLOW
ALOFT...LEFT ANY WX MENTION OUT ATTM. MUCH WARMER CONDS EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 255 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

A VERY WARM START TO THE WEEKEND AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE PASSES OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHWEST SD IF
WINDS INCREASE ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS BEHIND IT.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 542 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS MOSTLY FAR NORTHEAST WY AND WESTERN SD THIS MORNING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE QUICKLY SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE IN MOST AREAS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON...
EXCEPT OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AREA. ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW AND MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26






000
FXUS63 KUNR 261143
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
543 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 255 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
PERTURBED NW FLOW ALOFT...SUPPORTING UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE FIRST OF TWO MID LEVEL IMPULSES IS IN THE PROCESS OF
ADVECTING SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK IS SUPPORTING INCREASING COVERAGE
OF PRECIP ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE FA. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MORNING. STEEP LL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH PAC MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT INSTABILITY SHRA OVER MOST OF THE FA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
SECONDARY IMPULSE SUPPORTING ANOTHER UPGLIDE PUSH TONIGHT...WITH
RESULTING CHANCES FOR MAINLY RAIN SHRA GIVEN WARM BL CONDS PER
ONGOING WAA. MUCH WARMER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AS THE LL
FRONTAL ZONE SHIFTS EAST...WITH WARM NW PAC FLOW SPREADING OVER
THE FA.

TODAY...FGEN SNOWS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MORNING ACROSS MAINLY THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FA. BEST FORCING WILL BE ALONG A NARROW BAND
ACROSS NW SD WHERE A QUICK INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...GIVEN
INCREASING CONVECTIVE NATURE PER STEEP MID AND LL LAPSE
RATES...DISRUPTION OF BETTER BANDING WILL LIKELY OCCUR LIMITING
SNOW AMOUNTS TO A DEGREE. MAIN LOBE OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL
SHIFT SE OUT OF THE REGION WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND STEEP LL LAPSE
RATES SUPPORTING MORE SHOWERY ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. ESP ACROSS NE
WY/THE BH/AND FAR WESTERN SD. WAA WILL SUPPORT MORE RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES...ESP OUTSIDE THE BH. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY WITH 40S AND LOWER 50S FOR HIGHS.

TONIGHT...SCT CONVECTIVE SHRA WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING...WITH
RENEWED CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE NEXT MID LEVEL
IMPULSE ARRIVES. WARM PROFILES PER ONGOING WAA WILL SUPPORT MAINLY
RAIN SHOWER CHANCES...SAVE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BH AND
PERHAPS NW SD WHERE COOLER BL CONDS WILL BE IN PLACE. ANY SNOWFALL
WILL BE MINIMAL GIVEN WARM CONDS. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 30S.

FRIDAY...LL FRONTAL ZONE WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST WITH ASSOCIATED
PRECIP CHANCES ENDING. DIURNAL INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH DEEP MIXING
AND MOIST NW FLOW COULD SUPPORT A FEW ISOLD HIGH BASED SHRA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ON THE SD PLAINS. HOWEVER...GIVEN SUBSIDENT FLOW
ALOFT...LEFT ANY WX MENTION OUT ATTM. MUCH WARMER CONDS EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 255 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

A VERY WARM START TO THE WEEKEND AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE PASSES OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHWEST SD IF
WINDS INCREASE ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS BEHIND IT.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 542 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS MOSTLY FAR NORTHEAST WY AND WESTERN SD THIS MORNING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE QUICKLY SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE IN MOST AREAS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON...
EXCEPT OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AREA. ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW AND MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26






000
FXUS63 KUNR 261143
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
543 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 255 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
PERTURBED NW FLOW ALOFT...SUPPORTING UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE FIRST OF TWO MID LEVEL IMPULSES IS IN THE PROCESS OF
ADVECTING SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK IS SUPPORTING INCREASING COVERAGE
OF PRECIP ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE FA. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MORNING. STEEP LL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH PAC MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT INSTABILITY SHRA OVER MOST OF THE FA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
SECONDARY IMPULSE SUPPORTING ANOTHER UPGLIDE PUSH TONIGHT...WITH
RESULTING CHANCES FOR MAINLY RAIN SHRA GIVEN WARM BL CONDS PER
ONGOING WAA. MUCH WARMER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AS THE LL
FRONTAL ZONE SHIFTS EAST...WITH WARM NW PAC FLOW SPREADING OVER
THE FA.

TODAY...FGEN SNOWS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MORNING ACROSS MAINLY THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FA. BEST FORCING WILL BE ALONG A NARROW BAND
ACROSS NW SD WHERE A QUICK INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...GIVEN
INCREASING CONVECTIVE NATURE PER STEEP MID AND LL LAPSE
RATES...DISRUPTION OF BETTER BANDING WILL LIKELY OCCUR LIMITING
SNOW AMOUNTS TO A DEGREE. MAIN LOBE OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL
SHIFT SE OUT OF THE REGION WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND STEEP LL LAPSE
RATES SUPPORTING MORE SHOWERY ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. ESP ACROSS NE
WY/THE BH/AND FAR WESTERN SD. WAA WILL SUPPORT MORE RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES...ESP OUTSIDE THE BH. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY WITH 40S AND LOWER 50S FOR HIGHS.

TONIGHT...SCT CONVECTIVE SHRA WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING...WITH
RENEWED CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE NEXT MID LEVEL
IMPULSE ARRIVES. WARM PROFILES PER ONGOING WAA WILL SUPPORT MAINLY
RAIN SHOWER CHANCES...SAVE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BH AND
PERHAPS NW SD WHERE COOLER BL CONDS WILL BE IN PLACE. ANY SNOWFALL
WILL BE MINIMAL GIVEN WARM CONDS. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 30S.

FRIDAY...LL FRONTAL ZONE WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST WITH ASSOCIATED
PRECIP CHANCES ENDING. DIURNAL INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH DEEP MIXING
AND MOIST NW FLOW COULD SUPPORT A FEW ISOLD HIGH BASED SHRA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ON THE SD PLAINS. HOWEVER...GIVEN SUBSIDENT FLOW
ALOFT...LEFT ANY WX MENTION OUT ATTM. MUCH WARMER CONDS EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 255 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

A VERY WARM START TO THE WEEKEND AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE PASSES OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHWEST SD IF
WINDS INCREASE ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS BEHIND IT.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 542 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS MOSTLY FAR NORTHEAST WY AND WESTERN SD THIS MORNING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE QUICKLY SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE IN MOST AREAS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON...
EXCEPT OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AREA. ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW AND MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26







000
FXUS63 KUNR 261143
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
543 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 255 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
PERTURBED NW FLOW ALOFT...SUPPORTING UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE FIRST OF TWO MID LEVEL IMPULSES IS IN THE PROCESS OF
ADVECTING SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK IS SUPPORTING INCREASING COVERAGE
OF PRECIP ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE FA. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MORNING. STEEP LL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH PAC MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT INSTABILITY SHRA OVER MOST OF THE FA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
SECONDARY IMPULSE SUPPORTING ANOTHER UPGLIDE PUSH TONIGHT...WITH
RESULTING CHANCES FOR MAINLY RAIN SHRA GIVEN WARM BL CONDS PER
ONGOING WAA. MUCH WARMER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AS THE LL
FRONTAL ZONE SHIFTS EAST...WITH WARM NW PAC FLOW SPREADING OVER
THE FA.

TODAY...FGEN SNOWS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MORNING ACROSS MAINLY THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FA. BEST FORCING WILL BE ALONG A NARROW BAND
ACROSS NW SD WHERE A QUICK INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...GIVEN
INCREASING CONVECTIVE NATURE PER STEEP MID AND LL LAPSE
RATES...DISRUPTION OF BETTER BANDING WILL LIKELY OCCUR LIMITING
SNOW AMOUNTS TO A DEGREE. MAIN LOBE OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL
SHIFT SE OUT OF THE REGION WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND STEEP LL LAPSE
RATES SUPPORTING MORE SHOWERY ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. ESP ACROSS NE
WY/THE BH/AND FAR WESTERN SD. WAA WILL SUPPORT MORE RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES...ESP OUTSIDE THE BH. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY WITH 40S AND LOWER 50S FOR HIGHS.

TONIGHT...SCT CONVECTIVE SHRA WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING...WITH
RENEWED CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE NEXT MID LEVEL
IMPULSE ARRIVES. WARM PROFILES PER ONGOING WAA WILL SUPPORT MAINLY
RAIN SHOWER CHANCES...SAVE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BH AND
PERHAPS NW SD WHERE COOLER BL CONDS WILL BE IN PLACE. ANY SNOWFALL
WILL BE MINIMAL GIVEN WARM CONDS. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 30S.

FRIDAY...LL FRONTAL ZONE WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST WITH ASSOCIATED
PRECIP CHANCES ENDING. DIURNAL INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH DEEP MIXING
AND MOIST NW FLOW COULD SUPPORT A FEW ISOLD HIGH BASED SHRA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ON THE SD PLAINS. HOWEVER...GIVEN SUBSIDENT FLOW
ALOFT...LEFT ANY WX MENTION OUT ATTM. MUCH WARMER CONDS EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 255 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

A VERY WARM START TO THE WEEKEND AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE PASSES OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHWEST SD IF
WINDS INCREASE ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS BEHIND IT.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 542 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS MOSTLY FAR NORTHEAST WY AND WESTERN SD THIS MORNING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE QUICKLY SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE IN MOST AREAS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON...
EXCEPT OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AREA. ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW AND MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26






000
FXUS65 KCYS 261138
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
538 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

NO MAJOR WEATHER IMPACTS IN THE NEAR TERM. FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES EARLY THIS AM ON THE EAST SIDE OF A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. 09Z WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS A PLUME OF MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL MT ALONG THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE. SHOULD SEE THIS SPREAD INTO
THE CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LARGER SCALE LIFT IMPROVES WITHIN
THE EXIT REGION OF A 100 KT H25 JET. BEST LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF OUR
AREA...BUT STILL EXPECT ENOUGH SUPPORT WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SHOWERS. KEPT ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED POPS GOING NORTHEAST. GFS LIFTED INDICES REMAIN POSITIVE
THROUGH THE DAY...SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY THUNDER. STRONG SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ORIENTED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS PRESSURE
FALLS SPREAD INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL NE. WITH A BROAD SWATH OF 30 TO 35
KT H7 FLOW ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...IT WILL NOT TAKE
LONG AFTER SUNRISE TO CRANK UP THE WINDS. NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
BOTH SUGGEST A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLE
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTN. WE MAY GET VERY CLOSE TO ADVISORY
LEVELS...BUT OBSERVED CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM ON IR SATELLITE SUGGESTS
MODELS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO EFFICIENT WITH LLVL MIXING. BEST CHANCE
FOR 40 MPH GUSTS WOULD BE OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR FRI AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD
INTO THE ROCKIES. IT WILL BE WARMER WITH GFS H7 TEMPS CLIMBING BACK
ABOVE 0 DEG C. WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO SAT WITH MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON H7 TEMPS EXCEEDING +5 DEG C BY 00Z SUN. LLVL DOWNSLOPE
LOOKS MUCH BETTER THAN FRI...SO EXPECT A VERY WARM DAY WITH RECORD
HIGHS POSSIBLE. WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE WARMEST GUIDANCE...BUT
EVEN THAT COULD BE CONSERVATIVE. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DEEP MIXING WITH
AMPLE SUNSHINE BENEATH THE RIDGE. WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN TO AROUND
40 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...SO FIRE WEATHER STILL LOOKS
TO BE AN ISSUE ON SAT AFTN. MOST LIKELY WILL NEED RED FLAG PRODUCTS
AS WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER. OTHERWISE...NOT A WHOLE LOT TO SPEAK OF
IN THE SHORT TERM. WARM AND BREEZY WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

A PROGRESSIVE AND INCREASINGLY ZONAL PATTERN WILL PRODUCE A
GENERALLY DRY PERIOD WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
PROBLEMS EMERGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD THOUGH...AS 00Z MODELS
STRUGGLE RESOLVING THE STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THRU
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED
DEEPER WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...WHILE THE 00Z GFS PASSES THE BULK OF
THE ENERGY NORTH OF THE CWFA THRU THE NRN PLAINS. THE DIFFERENCES
WOULD BE NOTICEABLE WITH THE ECMWF MUCH WETTER ACROSS NRN AND ERN
ZONES WITH A STRONGER FROPA...WHILE THE GFS WOULD KEEP THE FROPA
DRY. FOR NOW...HAVE SIDED WITH THE LESS AMPLIFIED GFS GIVEN ITS
BETTER RUN-TO- RUN CONSISTENCY. ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS
CLOSELY OVR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SUNDAY WILL BE BREEZIER/COOLER
BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FROPA... WITH HIGHS HOLDING GENERALLY IN
THE 60S MOST LOCATIONS. NW FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BECOME MORE
WESTERLY AS THE WEEK WEARS ON. PROGD LIFTED INDICES FALL BELOW
ZERO IN THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY. NW STEERING FLOW
ALOFT WOULD TAKE ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY SOUTH INTO COLORADO PRETTY
QUICKLY...SO DONT ENVISION ANY IMPACTS OVR ADJACENT LOWER
ELEVATIONS. OTHERWISE...THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S WITH PERHAPS SOME LOW 70S
OVR LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 537 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL
BE THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS COMMON ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING THRU THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRI. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON SAT. NEAR RECORD HIGHS WILL COMBINE WITH A
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS TO PRODUCE VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...CAH
FIRE WEATHER...CLH



000
FXUS65 KCYS 261138
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
538 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

NO MAJOR WEATHER IMPACTS IN THE NEAR TERM. FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES EARLY THIS AM ON THE EAST SIDE OF A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. 09Z WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS A PLUME OF MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL MT ALONG THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE. SHOULD SEE THIS SPREAD INTO
THE CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LARGER SCALE LIFT IMPROVES WITHIN
THE EXIT REGION OF A 100 KT H25 JET. BEST LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF OUR
AREA...BUT STILL EXPECT ENOUGH SUPPORT WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SHOWERS. KEPT ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED POPS GOING NORTHEAST. GFS LIFTED INDICES REMAIN POSITIVE
THROUGH THE DAY...SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY THUNDER. STRONG SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ORIENTED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS PRESSURE
FALLS SPREAD INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL NE. WITH A BROAD SWATH OF 30 TO 35
KT H7 FLOW ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...IT WILL NOT TAKE
LONG AFTER SUNRISE TO CRANK UP THE WINDS. NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
BOTH SUGGEST A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLE
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTN. WE MAY GET VERY CLOSE TO ADVISORY
LEVELS...BUT OBSERVED CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM ON IR SATELLITE SUGGESTS
MODELS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO EFFICIENT WITH LLVL MIXING. BEST CHANCE
FOR 40 MPH GUSTS WOULD BE OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR FRI AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD
INTO THE ROCKIES. IT WILL BE WARMER WITH GFS H7 TEMPS CLIMBING BACK
ABOVE 0 DEG C. WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO SAT WITH MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON H7 TEMPS EXCEEDING +5 DEG C BY 00Z SUN. LLVL DOWNSLOPE
LOOKS MUCH BETTER THAN FRI...SO EXPECT A VERY WARM DAY WITH RECORD
HIGHS POSSIBLE. WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE WARMEST GUIDANCE...BUT
EVEN THAT COULD BE CONSERVATIVE. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DEEP MIXING WITH
AMPLE SUNSHINE BENEATH THE RIDGE. WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN TO AROUND
40 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...SO FIRE WEATHER STILL LOOKS
TO BE AN ISSUE ON SAT AFTN. MOST LIKELY WILL NEED RED FLAG PRODUCTS
AS WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER. OTHERWISE...NOT A WHOLE LOT TO SPEAK OF
IN THE SHORT TERM. WARM AND BREEZY WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

A PROGRESSIVE AND INCREASINGLY ZONAL PATTERN WILL PRODUCE A
GENERALLY DRY PERIOD WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
PROBLEMS EMERGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD THOUGH...AS 00Z MODELS
STRUGGLE RESOLVING THE STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THRU
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED
DEEPER WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...WHILE THE 00Z GFS PASSES THE BULK OF
THE ENERGY NORTH OF THE CWFA THRU THE NRN PLAINS. THE DIFFERENCES
WOULD BE NOTICEABLE WITH THE ECMWF MUCH WETTER ACROSS NRN AND ERN
ZONES WITH A STRONGER FROPA...WHILE THE GFS WOULD KEEP THE FROPA
DRY. FOR NOW...HAVE SIDED WITH THE LESS AMPLIFIED GFS GIVEN ITS
BETTER RUN-TO- RUN CONSISTENCY. ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS
CLOSELY OVR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SUNDAY WILL BE BREEZIER/COOLER
BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FROPA... WITH HIGHS HOLDING GENERALLY IN
THE 60S MOST LOCATIONS. NW FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BECOME MORE
WESTERLY AS THE WEEK WEARS ON. PROGD LIFTED INDICES FALL BELOW
ZERO IN THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY. NW STEERING FLOW
ALOFT WOULD TAKE ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY SOUTH INTO COLORADO PRETTY
QUICKLY...SO DONT ENVISION ANY IMPACTS OVR ADJACENT LOWER
ELEVATIONS. OTHERWISE...THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S WITH PERHAPS SOME LOW 70S
OVR LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 537 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL
BE THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS COMMON ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING THRU THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRI. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON SAT. NEAR RECORD HIGHS WILL COMBINE WITH A
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS TO PRODUCE VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...CAH
FIRE WEATHER...CLH




000
FXUS65 KCYS 261138
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
538 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

NO MAJOR WEATHER IMPACTS IN THE NEAR TERM. FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES EARLY THIS AM ON THE EAST SIDE OF A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. 09Z WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS A PLUME OF MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL MT ALONG THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE. SHOULD SEE THIS SPREAD INTO
THE CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LARGER SCALE LIFT IMPROVES WITHIN
THE EXIT REGION OF A 100 KT H25 JET. BEST LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF OUR
AREA...BUT STILL EXPECT ENOUGH SUPPORT WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SHOWERS. KEPT ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED POPS GOING NORTHEAST. GFS LIFTED INDICES REMAIN POSITIVE
THROUGH THE DAY...SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY THUNDER. STRONG SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ORIENTED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS PRESSURE
FALLS SPREAD INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL NE. WITH A BROAD SWATH OF 30 TO 35
KT H7 FLOW ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...IT WILL NOT TAKE
LONG AFTER SUNRISE TO CRANK UP THE WINDS. NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
BOTH SUGGEST A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLE
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTN. WE MAY GET VERY CLOSE TO ADVISORY
LEVELS...BUT OBSERVED CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM ON IR SATELLITE SUGGESTS
MODELS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO EFFICIENT WITH LLVL MIXING. BEST CHANCE
FOR 40 MPH GUSTS WOULD BE OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR FRI AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD
INTO THE ROCKIES. IT WILL BE WARMER WITH GFS H7 TEMPS CLIMBING BACK
ABOVE 0 DEG C. WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO SAT WITH MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON H7 TEMPS EXCEEDING +5 DEG C BY 00Z SUN. LLVL DOWNSLOPE
LOOKS MUCH BETTER THAN FRI...SO EXPECT A VERY WARM DAY WITH RECORD
HIGHS POSSIBLE. WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE WARMEST GUIDANCE...BUT
EVEN THAT COULD BE CONSERVATIVE. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DEEP MIXING WITH
AMPLE SUNSHINE BENEATH THE RIDGE. WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN TO AROUND
40 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...SO FIRE WEATHER STILL LOOKS
TO BE AN ISSUE ON SAT AFTN. MOST LIKELY WILL NEED RED FLAG PRODUCTS
AS WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER. OTHERWISE...NOT A WHOLE LOT TO SPEAK OF
IN THE SHORT TERM. WARM AND BREEZY WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

A PROGRESSIVE AND INCREASINGLY ZONAL PATTERN WILL PRODUCE A
GENERALLY DRY PERIOD WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
PROBLEMS EMERGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD THOUGH...AS 00Z MODELS
STRUGGLE RESOLVING THE STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THRU
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED
DEEPER WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...WHILE THE 00Z GFS PASSES THE BULK OF
THE ENERGY NORTH OF THE CWFA THRU THE NRN PLAINS. THE DIFFERENCES
WOULD BE NOTICEABLE WITH THE ECMWF MUCH WETTER ACROSS NRN AND ERN
ZONES WITH A STRONGER FROPA...WHILE THE GFS WOULD KEEP THE FROPA
DRY. FOR NOW...HAVE SIDED WITH THE LESS AMPLIFIED GFS GIVEN ITS
BETTER RUN-TO- RUN CONSISTENCY. ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS
CLOSELY OVR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SUNDAY WILL BE BREEZIER/COOLER
BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FROPA... WITH HIGHS HOLDING GENERALLY IN
THE 60S MOST LOCATIONS. NW FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BECOME MORE
WESTERLY AS THE WEEK WEARS ON. PROGD LIFTED INDICES FALL BELOW
ZERO IN THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY. NW STEERING FLOW
ALOFT WOULD TAKE ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY SOUTH INTO COLORADO PRETTY
QUICKLY...SO DONT ENVISION ANY IMPACTS OVR ADJACENT LOWER
ELEVATIONS. OTHERWISE...THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S WITH PERHAPS SOME LOW 70S
OVR LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 537 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL
BE THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS COMMON ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING THRU THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRI. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON SAT. NEAR RECORD HIGHS WILL COMBINE WITH A
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS TO PRODUCE VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...CAH
FIRE WEATHER...CLH




000
FXUS65 KCYS 261138
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
538 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

NO MAJOR WEATHER IMPACTS IN THE NEAR TERM. FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES EARLY THIS AM ON THE EAST SIDE OF A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. 09Z WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS A PLUME OF MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL MT ALONG THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE. SHOULD SEE THIS SPREAD INTO
THE CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LARGER SCALE LIFT IMPROVES WITHIN
THE EXIT REGION OF A 100 KT H25 JET. BEST LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF OUR
AREA...BUT STILL EXPECT ENOUGH SUPPORT WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SHOWERS. KEPT ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED POPS GOING NORTHEAST. GFS LIFTED INDICES REMAIN POSITIVE
THROUGH THE DAY...SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY THUNDER. STRONG SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ORIENTED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS PRESSURE
FALLS SPREAD INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL NE. WITH A BROAD SWATH OF 30 TO 35
KT H7 FLOW ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...IT WILL NOT TAKE
LONG AFTER SUNRISE TO CRANK UP THE WINDS. NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
BOTH SUGGEST A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLE
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTN. WE MAY GET VERY CLOSE TO ADVISORY
LEVELS...BUT OBSERVED CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM ON IR SATELLITE SUGGESTS
MODELS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO EFFICIENT WITH LLVL MIXING. BEST CHANCE
FOR 40 MPH GUSTS WOULD BE OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR FRI AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD
INTO THE ROCKIES. IT WILL BE WARMER WITH GFS H7 TEMPS CLIMBING BACK
ABOVE 0 DEG C. WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO SAT WITH MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON H7 TEMPS EXCEEDING +5 DEG C BY 00Z SUN. LLVL DOWNSLOPE
LOOKS MUCH BETTER THAN FRI...SO EXPECT A VERY WARM DAY WITH RECORD
HIGHS POSSIBLE. WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE WARMEST GUIDANCE...BUT
EVEN THAT COULD BE CONSERVATIVE. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DEEP MIXING WITH
AMPLE SUNSHINE BENEATH THE RIDGE. WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN TO AROUND
40 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...SO FIRE WEATHER STILL LOOKS
TO BE AN ISSUE ON SAT AFTN. MOST LIKELY WILL NEED RED FLAG PRODUCTS
AS WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER. OTHERWISE...NOT A WHOLE LOT TO SPEAK OF
IN THE SHORT TERM. WARM AND BREEZY WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

A PROGRESSIVE AND INCREASINGLY ZONAL PATTERN WILL PRODUCE A
GENERALLY DRY PERIOD WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
PROBLEMS EMERGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD THOUGH...AS 00Z MODELS
STRUGGLE RESOLVING THE STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THRU
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED
DEEPER WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...WHILE THE 00Z GFS PASSES THE BULK OF
THE ENERGY NORTH OF THE CWFA THRU THE NRN PLAINS. THE DIFFERENCES
WOULD BE NOTICEABLE WITH THE ECMWF MUCH WETTER ACROSS NRN AND ERN
ZONES WITH A STRONGER FROPA...WHILE THE GFS WOULD KEEP THE FROPA
DRY. FOR NOW...HAVE SIDED WITH THE LESS AMPLIFIED GFS GIVEN ITS
BETTER RUN-TO- RUN CONSISTENCY. ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS
CLOSELY OVR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SUNDAY WILL BE BREEZIER/COOLER
BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FROPA... WITH HIGHS HOLDING GENERALLY IN
THE 60S MOST LOCATIONS. NW FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BECOME MORE
WESTERLY AS THE WEEK WEARS ON. PROGD LIFTED INDICES FALL BELOW
ZERO IN THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY. NW STEERING FLOW
ALOFT WOULD TAKE ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY SOUTH INTO COLORADO PRETTY
QUICKLY...SO DONT ENVISION ANY IMPACTS OVR ADJACENT LOWER
ELEVATIONS. OTHERWISE...THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S WITH PERHAPS SOME LOW 70S
OVR LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 537 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL
BE THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS COMMON ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING THRU THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRI. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON SAT. NEAR RECORD HIGHS WILL COMBINE WITH A
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS TO PRODUCE VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...CAH
FIRE WEATHER...CLH



000
FXUS65 KCYS 261033
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
433 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

NO MAJOR WEATHER IMPACTS IN THE NEAR TERM. FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES EARLY THIS AM ON THE EAST SIDE OF A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. 09Z WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS A PLUME OF MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL MT ALONG THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE. SHOULD SEE THIS SPREAD INTO
THE CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LARGER SCALE LIFT IMPROVES WITHIN
THE EXIT REGION OF A 100 KT H25 JET. BEST LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF OUR
AREA...BUT STILL EXPECT ENOUGH SUPPORT WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SHOWERS. KEPT ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED POPS GOING NORTHEAST. GFS LIFTED INDICES REMAIN POSITIVE
THROUGH THE DAY...SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY THUNDER. STRONG SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ORIENTED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS PRESSURE
FALLS SPREAD INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL NE. WITH A BROAD SWATH OF 30 TO 35
KT H7 FLOW ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...IT WILL NOT TAKE
LONG AFTER SUNRISE TO CRANK UP THE WINDS. NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
BOTH SUGGEST A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLE
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTN. WE MAY GET VERY CLOSE TO ADVISORY
LEVELS...BUT OBSERVED CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM ON IR SATELLITE SUGGESTS
MODELS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO EFFICIENT WITH LLVL MIXING. BEST CHANCE
FOR 40 MPH GUSTS WOULD BE OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR FRI AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD
INTO THE ROCKIES. IT WILL BE WARMER WITH GFS H7 TEMPS CLIMBING BACK
ABOVE 0 DEG C. WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO SAT WITH MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON H7 TEMPS EXCEEDING +5 DEG C BY 00Z SUN. LLVL DOWNSLOPE
LOOKS MUCH BETTER THAN FRI...SO EXPECT A VERY WARM DAY WITH RECORD
HIGHS POSSIBLE. WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE WARMEST GUIDANCE...BUT
EVEN THAT COULD BE CONSERVATIVE. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DEEP MIXING WITH
AMPLE SUNSHINE BENEATH THE RIDGE. WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN TO AROUND
40 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...SO FIRE WEATHER STILL LOOKS
TO BE AN ISSUE ON SAT AFTN. MOST LIKELY WILL NEED RED FLAG PRODUCTS
AS WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER. OTHERWISE...NOT A WHOLE LOT TO SPEAK OF
IN THE SHORT TERM. WARM AND BREEZY WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

A PROGRESSIVE AND INCREASINGLY ZONAL PATTERN WILL PRODUCE A
GENERALLY DRY PERIOD WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
PROBLEMS EMERGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD THOUGH...AS 00Z MODELS
STRUGGLE RESOLVING THE STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THRU
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED
DEEPER WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...WHILE THE 00Z GFS PASSES THE BULK OF
THE ENERGY NORTH OF THE CWFA THRU THE NRN PLAINS. THE DIFFERENCES
WOULD BE NOTICEABLE WITH THE ECMWF MUCH WETTER ACROSS NRN AND ERN
ZONES WITH A STRONGER FROPA...WHILE THE GFS WOULD KEEP THE FROPA
DRY. FOR NOW...HAVE SIDED WITH THE LESS AMPLIFIED GFS GIVEN ITS
BETTER RUN-TO- RUN CONSISTENCY. ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS
CLOSELY OVR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SUNDAY WILL BE BREEZIER/COOLER
BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FROPA... WITH HIGHS HOLDING GENERALLY IN
THE 60S MOST LOCATIONS. NW FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BECOME MORE
WESTERLY AS THE WEEK WEARS ON. PROGD LIFTED INDICES FALL BELOW
ZERO IN THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY. NW STEERING FLOW
ALOFT WOULD TAKE ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY SOUTH INTO COLORADO PRETTY
QUICKLY...SO DONT ENVISION ANY IMPACTS OVR ADJACENT LOWER
ELEVATIONS. OTHERWISE...THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S WITH PERHAPS SOME LOW 70S
OVR LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH PERHAPS
FEW-SCT IFR STRATUS AT TIMES AT KCYS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO
BEFORE WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AND DISSIPATE THIS AREA OF
CLOUD HANGING ONTO THE LARAMIE RANGE. OTHERWISE...GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THRU THURSDAY WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS
COMMON ACROSS THE AREA LATE MORNING THRU THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRI. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON SAT. NEAR RECORD HIGHS WILL COMBINE WITH A
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS TO PRODUCE VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...CLH



000
FXUS65 KCYS 261033
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
433 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

NO MAJOR WEATHER IMPACTS IN THE NEAR TERM. FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES EARLY THIS AM ON THE EAST SIDE OF A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. 09Z WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS A PLUME OF MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL MT ALONG THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE. SHOULD SEE THIS SPREAD INTO
THE CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LARGER SCALE LIFT IMPROVES WITHIN
THE EXIT REGION OF A 100 KT H25 JET. BEST LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF OUR
AREA...BUT STILL EXPECT ENOUGH SUPPORT WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SHOWERS. KEPT ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED POPS GOING NORTHEAST. GFS LIFTED INDICES REMAIN POSITIVE
THROUGH THE DAY...SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY THUNDER. STRONG SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ORIENTED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS PRESSURE
FALLS SPREAD INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL NE. WITH A BROAD SWATH OF 30 TO 35
KT H7 FLOW ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...IT WILL NOT TAKE
LONG AFTER SUNRISE TO CRANK UP THE WINDS. NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
BOTH SUGGEST A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLE
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTN. WE MAY GET VERY CLOSE TO ADVISORY
LEVELS...BUT OBSERVED CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM ON IR SATELLITE SUGGESTS
MODELS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO EFFICIENT WITH LLVL MIXING. BEST CHANCE
FOR 40 MPH GUSTS WOULD BE OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR FRI AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD
INTO THE ROCKIES. IT WILL BE WARMER WITH GFS H7 TEMPS CLIMBING BACK
ABOVE 0 DEG C. WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO SAT WITH MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON H7 TEMPS EXCEEDING +5 DEG C BY 00Z SUN. LLVL DOWNSLOPE
LOOKS MUCH BETTER THAN FRI...SO EXPECT A VERY WARM DAY WITH RECORD
HIGHS POSSIBLE. WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE WARMEST GUIDANCE...BUT
EVEN THAT COULD BE CONSERVATIVE. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DEEP MIXING WITH
AMPLE SUNSHINE BENEATH THE RIDGE. WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN TO AROUND
40 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...SO FIRE WEATHER STILL LOOKS
TO BE AN ISSUE ON SAT AFTN. MOST LIKELY WILL NEED RED FLAG PRODUCTS
AS WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER. OTHERWISE...NOT A WHOLE LOT TO SPEAK OF
IN THE SHORT TERM. WARM AND BREEZY WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

A PROGRESSIVE AND INCREASINGLY ZONAL PATTERN WILL PRODUCE A
GENERALLY DRY PERIOD WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
PROBLEMS EMERGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD THOUGH...AS 00Z MODELS
STRUGGLE RESOLVING THE STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THRU
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED
DEEPER WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...WHILE THE 00Z GFS PASSES THE BULK OF
THE ENERGY NORTH OF THE CWFA THRU THE NRN PLAINS. THE DIFFERENCES
WOULD BE NOTICEABLE WITH THE ECMWF MUCH WETTER ACROSS NRN AND ERN
ZONES WITH A STRONGER FROPA...WHILE THE GFS WOULD KEEP THE FROPA
DRY. FOR NOW...HAVE SIDED WITH THE LESS AMPLIFIED GFS GIVEN ITS
BETTER RUN-TO- RUN CONSISTENCY. ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS
CLOSELY OVR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SUNDAY WILL BE BREEZIER/COOLER
BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FROPA... WITH HIGHS HOLDING GENERALLY IN
THE 60S MOST LOCATIONS. NW FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BECOME MORE
WESTERLY AS THE WEEK WEARS ON. PROGD LIFTED INDICES FALL BELOW
ZERO IN THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY. NW STEERING FLOW
ALOFT WOULD TAKE ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY SOUTH INTO COLORADO PRETTY
QUICKLY...SO DONT ENVISION ANY IMPACTS OVR ADJACENT LOWER
ELEVATIONS. OTHERWISE...THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S WITH PERHAPS SOME LOW 70S
OVR LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH PERHAPS
FEW-SCT IFR STRATUS AT TIMES AT KCYS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO
BEFORE WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AND DISSIPATE THIS AREA OF
CLOUD HANGING ONTO THE LARAMIE RANGE. OTHERWISE...GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THRU THURSDAY WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS
COMMON ACROSS THE AREA LATE MORNING THRU THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRI. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON SAT. NEAR RECORD HIGHS WILL COMBINE WITH A
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS TO PRODUCE VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...CLH




000
FXUS65 KRIW 260954
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
354 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
SATELLITE DEMONSTRATES SOME OF THE LAST MOISTURE TO BE ARRIVING
ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING THIS MORNING. THIS PUSH OF MOISTURE MAY
GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SHOWERS WILL
TAPER OFF THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE PREVAILING WEATHER PATTERN FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. AN APPROACHING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY SATURDAY...AND MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA...IT
WILL GENERATE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING...MAINLY
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. MODELS DO HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH
TIMING REGARDING THIS LATE PERIOD SYSTEM...RESULTING IN LOWERED
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN THE FORECAST. REGARDLESS TO
TIMING...MODELS DO INDICATE SOME DECENT INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WEAK RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A
SHORTWAVE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN RIDGE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IMPACT
FROM THIS SHORTWAVE MAINLY TO BE FELT OVER THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF WYOMING. THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS DUE TO LIFT ALONE LATER ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT COULD BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS TO BOTH
THE BIGHORN AND ABSAROKA RANGES. STRONG WESTERLY FLOW TO RESULT IN
BREEZY TO STRONG SURFACE WIND OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER
ELEVATIONS EAST OF THE DIVIDE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD MONDAY AND CONTINUED WARM ON
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE THEN MOVES ACROSS FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY. MOST OF
WEST CENTRAL WYOMING GENERALLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY WESTERLY
FLOW ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.
GUSTY W-NW WINDS ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE DIVIDE...VCNTY
KCOD-KRIW...WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES. THE WIND IN THESE AREAS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE...THE SKY SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
WIDESPREAD DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEING WARMING AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. DURING THIS TIME...DAYTIME RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL DECREASE...WITH SOME TEENS ANTICIPATED BY SATURDAY.
THESE LOWERED HUMIDITIES WILL BE FOUND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE...WHICH SHOULD REACH INTO THE STATE BY SATURDAY
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...POTENTIALLY BRINGING SOME
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WIND.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRANHAM
LONG TERM...KPL
AVIATION...KPL
FIRE WEATHER...BRANHAM





000
FXUS63 KUNR 260855
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
255 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 255 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH PERTURBED NW FLOW ALOFT...SUPPORTING UNSETTLED
WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FIRST OF TWO MID LEVEL IMPULSES IS
IN THE PROCESS OF ADVECTING SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
FEATURE COUPLED WITH A POTENT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK IS SUPPORTING
INCREASING COVERAGE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE FA. THIS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MORNING. STEEP LL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH
PAC MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT INSTABILITY SHRA OVER MOST OF THE FA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SECONDARY IMPULSE SUPPORTING ANOTHER UPGLIDE
PUSH TONIGHT...WITH RESULTING CHANCES FOR MAINLY RAIN SHRA GIVEN
WARM BL CONDS PER ONGOING WAA. MUCH WARMER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE
FRIDAY AS THE LL FRONTAL ZONE SHIFTS EAST...WITH WARM NW PAC FLOW
SPREADING OVER THE FA.

TODAY...FGEN SNOWS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MORNING ACROSS MAINLY THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FA. BEST FORCING WILL BE ALONG A NARROW BAND
ACROSS NW SD WHERE A QUICK INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...GIVEN
INCREASING CONVECTIVE NATURE PER STEEP MID AND LL LAPSE
RATES...DISRUPTION OF BETTER BANDING WILL LIKELY OCCUR LIMITING
SNOW AMOUNTS TO A DEGREE. MAIN LOBE OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL
SHIFT SE OUT OF THE REGION WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND STEEP LL LAPSE
RATES SUPPORTING MORE SHOWERY ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. ESP ACROSS NE
WY/THE BH/AND FAR WESTERN SD. WAA WILL SUPPORT MORE RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES...ESP OUTSIDE THE BH. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY WITH 40S AND LOWER 50S FOR HIGHS.

TONIGHT...SCT CONVECTIVE SHRA WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING...WITH
RENEWED CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE NEXT MID LEVEL
IMPULSE ARRIVES. WARM PROFILES PER ONGOING WAA WILL SUPPORT MAINLY
RAIN SHOWER CHANCES...SAVE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BH AND
PERHAPS NW SD WHERE COOLER BL CONDS WILL BE IN PLACE. ANY SNOWFALL
WILL BE MINIMAL GIVEN WARM CONDS. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 30S.

FRIDAY...LL FRONTAL ZONE WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST WITH ASSOCIATED
PRECIP CHANCES ENDING. DIURNAL INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH DEEP MIXING
AND MOIST NW FLOW COULD SUPPORT A FEW ISOLD HIGH BASED SHRA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ON THE SD PLAINS. HOWEVER...GIVEN SUBSIDENT FLOW
ALOFT...LEFT ANY WX MENTION OUT ATTM. MUCH WARMER CONDS EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 255 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

A VERY WARM START TO THE WEEKEND AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
PASSES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE
70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHWEST SD
IF WINDS INCREASE ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS BEHIND IT.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 255 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS MOSTLY FAR NORTHEAST WY AND WESTERN SD THIS MORNING
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE QUICKLY SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE IN MOST AREAS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON...
EXCEPT OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AREA. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW
AND MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26






000
FXUS63 KUNR 260855
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
255 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 255 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH PERTURBED NW FLOW ALOFT...SUPPORTING UNSETTLED
WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FIRST OF TWO MID LEVEL IMPULSES IS
IN THE PROCESS OF ADVECTING SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
FEATURE COUPLED WITH A POTENT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK IS SUPPORTING
INCREASING COVERAGE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE FA. THIS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MORNING. STEEP LL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH
PAC MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT INSTABILITY SHRA OVER MOST OF THE FA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SECONDARY IMPULSE SUPPORTING ANOTHER UPGLIDE
PUSH TONIGHT...WITH RESULTING CHANCES FOR MAINLY RAIN SHRA GIVEN
WARM BL CONDS PER ONGOING WAA. MUCH WARMER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE
FRIDAY AS THE LL FRONTAL ZONE SHIFTS EAST...WITH WARM NW PAC FLOW
SPREADING OVER THE FA.

TODAY...FGEN SNOWS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MORNING ACROSS MAINLY THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FA. BEST FORCING WILL BE ALONG A NARROW BAND
ACROSS NW SD WHERE A QUICK INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...GIVEN
INCREASING CONVECTIVE NATURE PER STEEP MID AND LL LAPSE
RATES...DISRUPTION OF BETTER BANDING WILL LIKELY OCCUR LIMITING
SNOW AMOUNTS TO A DEGREE. MAIN LOBE OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL
SHIFT SE OUT OF THE REGION WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND STEEP LL LAPSE
RATES SUPPORTING MORE SHOWERY ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. ESP ACROSS NE
WY/THE BH/AND FAR WESTERN SD. WAA WILL SUPPORT MORE RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES...ESP OUTSIDE THE BH. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY WITH 40S AND LOWER 50S FOR HIGHS.

TONIGHT...SCT CONVECTIVE SHRA WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING...WITH
RENEWED CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE NEXT MID LEVEL
IMPULSE ARRIVES. WARM PROFILES PER ONGOING WAA WILL SUPPORT MAINLY
RAIN SHOWER CHANCES...SAVE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BH AND
PERHAPS NW SD WHERE COOLER BL CONDS WILL BE IN PLACE. ANY SNOWFALL
WILL BE MINIMAL GIVEN WARM CONDS. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 30S.

FRIDAY...LL FRONTAL ZONE WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST WITH ASSOCIATED
PRECIP CHANCES ENDING. DIURNAL INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH DEEP MIXING
AND MOIST NW FLOW COULD SUPPORT A FEW ISOLD HIGH BASED SHRA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ON THE SD PLAINS. HOWEVER...GIVEN SUBSIDENT FLOW
ALOFT...LEFT ANY WX MENTION OUT ATTM. MUCH WARMER CONDS EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 255 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

A VERY WARM START TO THE WEEKEND AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
PASSES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE
70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHWEST SD
IF WINDS INCREASE ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS BEHIND IT.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 255 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS MOSTLY FAR NORTHEAST WY AND WESTERN SD THIS MORNING
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE QUICKLY SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE IN MOST AREAS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON...
EXCEPT OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AREA. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW
AND MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26







000
FXUS63 KUNR 260855
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
255 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 255 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH PERTURBED NW FLOW ALOFT...SUPPORTING UNSETTLED
WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FIRST OF TWO MID LEVEL IMPULSES IS
IN THE PROCESS OF ADVECTING SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
FEATURE COUPLED WITH A POTENT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK IS SUPPORTING
INCREASING COVERAGE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE FA. THIS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MORNING. STEEP LL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH
PAC MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT INSTABILITY SHRA OVER MOST OF THE FA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SECONDARY IMPULSE SUPPORTING ANOTHER UPGLIDE
PUSH TONIGHT...WITH RESULTING CHANCES FOR MAINLY RAIN SHRA GIVEN
WARM BL CONDS PER ONGOING WAA. MUCH WARMER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE
FRIDAY AS THE LL FRONTAL ZONE SHIFTS EAST...WITH WARM NW PAC FLOW
SPREADING OVER THE FA.

TODAY...FGEN SNOWS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MORNING ACROSS MAINLY THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FA. BEST FORCING WILL BE ALONG A NARROW BAND
ACROSS NW SD WHERE A QUICK INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...GIVEN
INCREASING CONVECTIVE NATURE PER STEEP MID AND LL LAPSE
RATES...DISRUPTION OF BETTER BANDING WILL LIKELY OCCUR LIMITING
SNOW AMOUNTS TO A DEGREE. MAIN LOBE OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL
SHIFT SE OUT OF THE REGION WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND STEEP LL LAPSE
RATES SUPPORTING MORE SHOWERY ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. ESP ACROSS NE
WY/THE BH/AND FAR WESTERN SD. WAA WILL SUPPORT MORE RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES...ESP OUTSIDE THE BH. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY WITH 40S AND LOWER 50S FOR HIGHS.

TONIGHT...SCT CONVECTIVE SHRA WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING...WITH
RENEWED CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE NEXT MID LEVEL
IMPULSE ARRIVES. WARM PROFILES PER ONGOING WAA WILL SUPPORT MAINLY
RAIN SHOWER CHANCES...SAVE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BH AND
PERHAPS NW SD WHERE COOLER BL CONDS WILL BE IN PLACE. ANY SNOWFALL
WILL BE MINIMAL GIVEN WARM CONDS. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 30S.

FRIDAY...LL FRONTAL ZONE WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST WITH ASSOCIATED
PRECIP CHANCES ENDING. DIURNAL INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH DEEP MIXING
AND MOIST NW FLOW COULD SUPPORT A FEW ISOLD HIGH BASED SHRA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ON THE SD PLAINS. HOWEVER...GIVEN SUBSIDENT FLOW
ALOFT...LEFT ANY WX MENTION OUT ATTM. MUCH WARMER CONDS EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 255 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

A VERY WARM START TO THE WEEKEND AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
PASSES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE
70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHWEST SD
IF WINDS INCREASE ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS BEHIND IT.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 255 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS MOSTLY FAR NORTHEAST WY AND WESTERN SD THIS MORNING
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE QUICKLY SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE IN MOST AREAS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON...
EXCEPT OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AREA. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW
AND MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26






000
FXUS63 KUNR 260855
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
255 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 255 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH PERTURBED NW FLOW ALOFT...SUPPORTING UNSETTLED
WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FIRST OF TWO MID LEVEL IMPULSES IS
IN THE PROCESS OF ADVECTING SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
FEATURE COUPLED WITH A POTENT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK IS SUPPORTING
INCREASING COVERAGE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE FA. THIS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MORNING. STEEP LL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH
PAC MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT INSTABILITY SHRA OVER MOST OF THE FA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SECONDARY IMPULSE SUPPORTING ANOTHER UPGLIDE
PUSH TONIGHT...WITH RESULTING CHANCES FOR MAINLY RAIN SHRA GIVEN
WARM BL CONDS PER ONGOING WAA. MUCH WARMER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE
FRIDAY AS THE LL FRONTAL ZONE SHIFTS EAST...WITH WARM NW PAC FLOW
SPREADING OVER THE FA.

TODAY...FGEN SNOWS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MORNING ACROSS MAINLY THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FA. BEST FORCING WILL BE ALONG A NARROW BAND
ACROSS NW SD WHERE A QUICK INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...GIVEN
INCREASING CONVECTIVE NATURE PER STEEP MID AND LL LAPSE
RATES...DISRUPTION OF BETTER BANDING WILL LIKELY OCCUR LIMITING
SNOW AMOUNTS TO A DEGREE. MAIN LOBE OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL
SHIFT SE OUT OF THE REGION WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND STEEP LL LAPSE
RATES SUPPORTING MORE SHOWERY ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. ESP ACROSS NE
WY/THE BH/AND FAR WESTERN SD. WAA WILL SUPPORT MORE RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES...ESP OUTSIDE THE BH. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY WITH 40S AND LOWER 50S FOR HIGHS.

TONIGHT...SCT CONVECTIVE SHRA WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING...WITH
RENEWED CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE NEXT MID LEVEL
IMPULSE ARRIVES. WARM PROFILES PER ONGOING WAA WILL SUPPORT MAINLY
RAIN SHOWER CHANCES...SAVE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BH AND
PERHAPS NW SD WHERE COOLER BL CONDS WILL BE IN PLACE. ANY SNOWFALL
WILL BE MINIMAL GIVEN WARM CONDS. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 30S.

FRIDAY...LL FRONTAL ZONE WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST WITH ASSOCIATED
PRECIP CHANCES ENDING. DIURNAL INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH DEEP MIXING
AND MOIST NW FLOW COULD SUPPORT A FEW ISOLD HIGH BASED SHRA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ON THE SD PLAINS. HOWEVER...GIVEN SUBSIDENT FLOW
ALOFT...LEFT ANY WX MENTION OUT ATTM. MUCH WARMER CONDS EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 255 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

A VERY WARM START TO THE WEEKEND AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
PASSES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE
70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHWEST SD
IF WINDS INCREASE ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS BEHIND IT.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 255 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS MOSTLY FAR NORTHEAST WY AND WESTERN SD THIS MORNING
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE QUICKLY SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE IN MOST AREAS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON...
EXCEPT OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AREA. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW
AND MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26







000
FXUS65 KRIW 260527
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1125 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

UPDATE...ADDED 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY (ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT)

INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR ERN ZONES IS AIDING IN SOME WEAK SHOWERS AND
LOWER CIGS WHILE WARM ADVECTION SPILLOVER CLOUDS ARE ALREADY MOVING
INTO THE WEST. WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS IN THE ERN ZONES THROUGH 00Z
BEFORE RETREATING THEM INTO THE MOUNTAINS. STORM SYSTEM CAME THROUGH
ABOUT AS EXPECTED LAST NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING EXCEPT THE MAIN
BAND WAS NOT AS INTENSE IN NATRONA COUNTY WHERE AMOUNTS WHERE
GENERALLY ONLY A SKIFF TO 2 INCHES. THE REST OF THE AREA WORKED
OUT WELL. AS THE RIDGE MOVES/BUILDS IN THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
INCREASES ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH THE ATMOSPHERE
MOISTENING ENOUGH OVER THE NRN MOUNTAINS TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE SOME
VERY LIGHT SNOW OF FLURRIES AT TIMES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES WARMER ON THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA AND DRY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

BEGINNING OF FCST...UPR RIDGE ACROSS WRN CONUS...SW AND SFC FRONT
THRU ERN WY AND OFF INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS WITH LARGE TROF OVR
THE ERN 2/3S OF THE CONUS. SFC WILL HAVE HI P BEGINNING TO TAKE
HOLD...BUILDING IN FROM THE SW.

FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE LR MDLS THRU SUN MORNING BEFORE SIG
DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO ARISE. BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...RIDGING AND
WARMING THRU SAT MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT WX SYSTEM. CYCLOGENESIS
ACROSS THE NWRN CONUS WILL OCCUR FRI NIGHT...MATURING AND RACING
EWD...BUSTING INTO THE RIDGE AND ARRIVING W/ FRONT NEAR THE WRN FA
BY MID-DAY SAT. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM DYNAMICALLY WILL BE DECENT
ENOUGH...ESPECIALLY WHEN ASSOCIATED 100 KT JET IS COMBINED WITH THE
LL FRONT...GOOD CONVECTIVE NATURE...AND TERRAIN FEATURES...THE SPEED
OF MOVEMENT AND GENERAL LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP PRECIP TOTALS ON
THE LOW SIDE AT LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH UNDER THE BEST
CIRCUMSTANCES. HOWEVER...THAT SAID...THE IMPACT OF THE DAY THAT WILL
RESULT FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL INCLUDE A RAPID INCREASE IN SFC WINDS
OUT OF THE WEST...BOTH JUST AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT... AS  THE
LOWER LVLS WARM...UPPER LEVEL WINDS INCREASE...AND THE SFC P GRAD
TIGHTENS VERY QUICKLY. AS A MATTER OF FACT...MOST OF THE FA CAN
EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME WRLY 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS RANGING FROM 40
TO 50 MPH. THIS COMBINED WITH DECLINING RH VALUES BY AFTERNOON WILL
PUT SOME OF THE CWA UNDER NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY FIRE
WX ZONES 279 280 AND 289. WILL MONITOR OVR THE NEXT 24 HRS FOR
POSSIBLE FWW. ADDITIONALLY...A FEW OF THE HIGH BASED SHOWERS MAY
PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED LIGHTNING SAT AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NRN FA WHERE MID LVL CONVECTIVE DYNAMICS WILL BE
STRONGER...BUT AGAIN OVR MOISTURE DEPRIVED LOWER LEVELS.

INTO THE BEYOND...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE. AS MENTIONED
BEFORE...MDLS BEGIN TO DIVERGE...PARTICULARLY W/ REGARD TO TIMING
DIFFERENCES THIS TIME AROUND. THIS WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE ARRIVAL
OF THE DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE REGION TUE...THE EURO BEING THE
FIRST TO ARRIVE AND LEAVE...OTHERS FOLLOWING. SPATIAL TRENDS BETWEEN
THE MDLS...HOWEVER...DO KEEP THE BETTER WX PARAMETERS MAINLY ACROSS
THE NRN THIRD OF THE CWA...SO REALLY JUST A MATTER OF STRETCHING CHC
POPS ENOUGH TO FIT WITHIN THE UNCERTAINTY OF ALL THE MDLS. TEMPORAL
DIFFERENCES DECREASE AFTER WED...WITH THE CONSENSUS OF ARRIVAL OF
THE NEXT WX MAKER TO BE MID-DAY THU IN THE WEST...PERHAPS
INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE FA...AND CONTINUING THRU AT LEAST FRI
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.
GUSTY W-NW WINDS ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE DIVIDE...VCNTY
KCOD-KRIW...WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER 15Z
THUR.  WINDS IN THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY PICK UP AGAIN AROUND SUNSET
THURSDAY EVENING.  OTHERWISE...OCNL CIGS FL130-150 WILL BE
ENCOUNTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF WYOMING THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SNOW SHOWERS WILL RETREAT TO THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND DECREASE TO
FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE DRY AND
ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER ON THURSDAY WITH BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
AREAS. MIN RH`S WILL BE ABOUT 25 TO 40 PERCENT. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
WARMUP WILL OCCUR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY...HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S EAST OF THE DIVIDE WITH MIN RH`S IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S ALONG WITH INCREASING WIND AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ON SATURDAY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PS
LONG TERM...BRAUN
AVIATION...AEM
FIRE WEATHER...PS












000
FXUS65 KRIW 260527
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1125 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

UPDATE...ADDED 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY (ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT)

INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR ERN ZONES IS AIDING IN SOME WEAK SHOWERS AND
LOWER CIGS WHILE WARM ADVECTION SPILLOVER CLOUDS ARE ALREADY MOVING
INTO THE WEST. WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS IN THE ERN ZONES THROUGH 00Z
BEFORE RETREATING THEM INTO THE MOUNTAINS. STORM SYSTEM CAME THROUGH
ABOUT AS EXPECTED LAST NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING EXCEPT THE MAIN
BAND WAS NOT AS INTENSE IN NATRONA COUNTY WHERE AMOUNTS WHERE
GENERALLY ONLY A SKIFF TO 2 INCHES. THE REST OF THE AREA WORKED
OUT WELL. AS THE RIDGE MOVES/BUILDS IN THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
INCREASES ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH THE ATMOSPHERE
MOISTENING ENOUGH OVER THE NRN MOUNTAINS TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE SOME
VERY LIGHT SNOW OF FLURRIES AT TIMES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES WARMER ON THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA AND DRY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

BEGINNING OF FCST...UPR RIDGE ACROSS WRN CONUS...SW AND SFC FRONT
THRU ERN WY AND OFF INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS WITH LARGE TROF OVR
THE ERN 2/3S OF THE CONUS. SFC WILL HAVE HI P BEGINNING TO TAKE
HOLD...BUILDING IN FROM THE SW.

FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE LR MDLS THRU SUN MORNING BEFORE SIG
DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO ARISE. BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...RIDGING AND
WARMING THRU SAT MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT WX SYSTEM. CYCLOGENESIS
ACROSS THE NWRN CONUS WILL OCCUR FRI NIGHT...MATURING AND RACING
EWD...BUSTING INTO THE RIDGE AND ARRIVING W/ FRONT NEAR THE WRN FA
BY MID-DAY SAT. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM DYNAMICALLY WILL BE DECENT
ENOUGH...ESPECIALLY WHEN ASSOCIATED 100 KT JET IS COMBINED WITH THE
LL FRONT...GOOD CONVECTIVE NATURE...AND TERRAIN FEATURES...THE SPEED
OF MOVEMENT AND GENERAL LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP PRECIP TOTALS ON
THE LOW SIDE AT LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH UNDER THE BEST
CIRCUMSTANCES. HOWEVER...THAT SAID...THE IMPACT OF THE DAY THAT WILL
RESULT FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL INCLUDE A RAPID INCREASE IN SFC WINDS
OUT OF THE WEST...BOTH JUST AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT... AS  THE
LOWER LVLS WARM...UPPER LEVEL WINDS INCREASE...AND THE SFC P GRAD
TIGHTENS VERY QUICKLY. AS A MATTER OF FACT...MOST OF THE FA CAN
EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME WRLY 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS RANGING FROM 40
TO 50 MPH. THIS COMBINED WITH DECLINING RH VALUES BY AFTERNOON WILL
PUT SOME OF THE CWA UNDER NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY FIRE
WX ZONES 279 280 AND 289. WILL MONITOR OVR THE NEXT 24 HRS FOR
POSSIBLE FWW. ADDITIONALLY...A FEW OF THE HIGH BASED SHOWERS MAY
PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED LIGHTNING SAT AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NRN FA WHERE MID LVL CONVECTIVE DYNAMICS WILL BE
STRONGER...BUT AGAIN OVR MOISTURE DEPRIVED LOWER LEVELS.

INTO THE BEYOND...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE. AS MENTIONED
BEFORE...MDLS BEGIN TO DIVERGE...PARTICULARLY W/ REGARD TO TIMING
DIFFERENCES THIS TIME AROUND. THIS WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE ARRIVAL
OF THE DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE REGION TUE...THE EURO BEING THE
FIRST TO ARRIVE AND LEAVE...OTHERS FOLLOWING. SPATIAL TRENDS BETWEEN
THE MDLS...HOWEVER...DO KEEP THE BETTER WX PARAMETERS MAINLY ACROSS
THE NRN THIRD OF THE CWA...SO REALLY JUST A MATTER OF STRETCHING CHC
POPS ENOUGH TO FIT WITHIN THE UNCERTAINTY OF ALL THE MDLS. TEMPORAL
DIFFERENCES DECREASE AFTER WED...WITH THE CONSENSUS OF ARRIVAL OF
THE NEXT WX MAKER TO BE MID-DAY THU IN THE WEST...PERHAPS
INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE FA...AND CONTINUING THRU AT LEAST FRI
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.
GUSTY W-NW WINDS ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE DIVIDE...VCNTY
KCOD-KRIW...WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER 15Z
THUR.  WINDS IN THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY PICK UP AGAIN AROUND SUNSET
THURSDAY EVENING.  OTHERWISE...OCNL CIGS FL130-150 WILL BE
ENCOUNTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF WYOMING THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SNOW SHOWERS WILL RETREAT TO THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND DECREASE TO
FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE DRY AND
ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER ON THURSDAY WITH BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
AREAS. MIN RH`S WILL BE ABOUT 25 TO 40 PERCENT. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
WARMUP WILL OCCUR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY...HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S EAST OF THE DIVIDE WITH MIN RH`S IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S ALONG WITH INCREASING WIND AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ON SATURDAY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PS
LONG TERM...BRAUN
AVIATION...AEM
FIRE WEATHER...PS











000
FXUS65 KCYS 260524
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1124 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

CURRENT KCYS RADAR LOOP SHOWS A FEW BANDS OF SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHEAST OFF OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO SOME LLVL INSTABILITY. THESE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN BRIEF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS I80...
BETWEEN LARAMIE AND PINE BLUFFS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE ACTIVITY
TO DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE
HEATING.

MODELS INDICATE NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY AS A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES SLOWLY
SLIDES EASTWARD INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION FOR LATE THIS WEEK
AND INTO THIS WEEKEND. THURSDAY WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY
COOL...BUT DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL AND GENERALLY IN THE 50S ACROSS THIS AREA. MODELS SHOW
A WEAK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT PUSHING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS ALONG WITH SOME
JET ENERGY BRUSHING THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF A DOUGLAS
TO ALLIANCE LINE. KEPT POP BETWEEN 20 TO 30 PERCENT IN THIS AREA
FOR WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...WHICH MAY MIX WITH SNOW AT
TIMES. THURSDAY WILL BE WINDY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
ESPECIALLY WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 20 TO 30
MPH AND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. HELD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE FOR NOW...BUT WINDS MAY BE CLOSE TO
CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON
THURSDAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY COMPARED
TO THURSDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES FURTHER EAST INTO
WYOMING AND COLORADO. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPERS
60S ARE EXPECTED...WARMEST OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH A FEW
AREAS REACHING 70 DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE RATHER BREEZY
DURING THE DAY...BUT STILL EXPECTED LESS WIND COMPARED TO THURSDAY
AS THE LOW TO MIDLEVEL GRADIENT RELAXES A BIT. KEPT POP BELOW 5
PERCENT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 323 PM MDT
WED MAR 25 2015

THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE WARM
AND DRY. WILL START OFF THE WEEKEND WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WIDESPREAD 70S WILL BE FOUND EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE AND INTO THE PLAINS WITH LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH RECORDS AS
SUNNY SKIES AND DRY DOWNSLOPE WEST WINDS ADD TO THE WARMING
POTENTIAL.

A QUICK MOVING NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS
MONTANA LATE SATURDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD
SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DO
NOT FORESEE ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SATURDAY OR SUNDAY...BUT
A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE WITH FROPA.

SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL MAKE A PUSH INTO COLORADO MONDAY AND
MAY HAVE SOME INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
SHOULD THE ENERGY SHIFT FARTHER NORTH. DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION
OF THIS DISTURBANCE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR BUT EVEN AT THAT MEASURABLE AMOUNTS WOULD
BE MINIMAL. ANOTHER FAST MOVING NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE
EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTH MID WEEK AND AGAIN VERY LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION LIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH PERHAPS
FEW-SCT IFR STRATUS AT TIMES AT KCYS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO
BEFORE WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AND DISSIPATE THIS AREA OF
CLOUD HANGING ONTO THE LARAMIE RANGE. OTHERWISE...GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THRU THURSDAY WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS
COMMON ACROSS THE AREA LATE MORNING THRU THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ELEVATED
CONCERNS EXPECTED BY THIS WEEKEND. A COOL AND DRY PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE ON THURSDAY BEFORE WARMER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURN
THE THE REGION BY SATURDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...TJT




000
FXUS65 KCYS 260524
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1124 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

CURRENT KCYS RADAR LOOP SHOWS A FEW BANDS OF SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHEAST OFF OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO SOME LLVL INSTABILITY. THESE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN BRIEF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS I80...
BETWEEN LARAMIE AND PINE BLUFFS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE ACTIVITY
TO DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE
HEATING.

MODELS INDICATE NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY AS A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES SLOWLY
SLIDES EASTWARD INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION FOR LATE THIS WEEK
AND INTO THIS WEEKEND. THURSDAY WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY
COOL...BUT DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL AND GENERALLY IN THE 50S ACROSS THIS AREA. MODELS SHOW
A WEAK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT PUSHING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS ALONG WITH SOME
JET ENERGY BRUSHING THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF A DOUGLAS
TO ALLIANCE LINE. KEPT POP BETWEEN 20 TO 30 PERCENT IN THIS AREA
FOR WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...WHICH MAY MIX WITH SNOW AT
TIMES. THURSDAY WILL BE WINDY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
ESPECIALLY WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 20 TO 30
MPH AND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. HELD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE FOR NOW...BUT WINDS MAY BE CLOSE TO
CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON
THURSDAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY COMPARED
TO THURSDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES FURTHER EAST INTO
WYOMING AND COLORADO. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPERS
60S ARE EXPECTED...WARMEST OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH A FEW
AREAS REACHING 70 DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE RATHER BREEZY
DURING THE DAY...BUT STILL EXPECTED LESS WIND COMPARED TO THURSDAY
AS THE LOW TO MIDLEVEL GRADIENT RELAXES A BIT. KEPT POP BELOW 5
PERCENT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 323 PM MDT
WED MAR 25 2015

THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE WARM
AND DRY. WILL START OFF THE WEEKEND WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WIDESPREAD 70S WILL BE FOUND EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE AND INTO THE PLAINS WITH LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH RECORDS AS
SUNNY SKIES AND DRY DOWNSLOPE WEST WINDS ADD TO THE WARMING
POTENTIAL.

A QUICK MOVING NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS
MONTANA LATE SATURDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD
SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DO
NOT FORESEE ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SATURDAY OR SUNDAY...BUT
A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE WITH FROPA.

SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL MAKE A PUSH INTO COLORADO MONDAY AND
MAY HAVE SOME INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
SHOULD THE ENERGY SHIFT FARTHER NORTH. DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION
OF THIS DISTURBANCE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR BUT EVEN AT THAT MEASURABLE AMOUNTS WOULD
BE MINIMAL. ANOTHER FAST MOVING NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE
EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTH MID WEEK AND AGAIN VERY LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION LIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH PERHAPS
FEW-SCT IFR STRATUS AT TIMES AT KCYS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO
BEFORE WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AND DISSIPATE THIS AREA OF
CLOUD HANGING ONTO THE LARAMIE RANGE. OTHERWISE...GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THRU THURSDAY WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS
COMMON ACROSS THE AREA LATE MORNING THRU THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ELEVATED
CONCERNS EXPECTED BY THIS WEEKEND. A COOL AND DRY PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE ON THURSDAY BEFORE WARMER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURN
THE THE REGION BY SATURDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...TJT



000
FXUS65 KCYS 260524
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1124 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

CURRENT KCYS RADAR LOOP SHOWS A FEW BANDS OF SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHEAST OFF OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO SOME LLVL INSTABILITY. THESE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN BRIEF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS I80...
BETWEEN LARAMIE AND PINE BLUFFS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE ACTIVITY
TO DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE
HEATING.

MODELS INDICATE NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY AS A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES SLOWLY
SLIDES EASTWARD INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION FOR LATE THIS WEEK
AND INTO THIS WEEKEND. THURSDAY WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY
COOL...BUT DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL AND GENERALLY IN THE 50S ACROSS THIS AREA. MODELS SHOW
A WEAK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT PUSHING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS ALONG WITH SOME
JET ENERGY BRUSHING THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF A DOUGLAS
TO ALLIANCE LINE. KEPT POP BETWEEN 20 TO 30 PERCENT IN THIS AREA
FOR WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...WHICH MAY MIX WITH SNOW AT
TIMES. THURSDAY WILL BE WINDY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
ESPECIALLY WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 20 TO 30
MPH AND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. HELD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE FOR NOW...BUT WINDS MAY BE CLOSE TO
CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON
THURSDAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY COMPARED
TO THURSDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES FURTHER EAST INTO
WYOMING AND COLORADO. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPERS
60S ARE EXPECTED...WARMEST OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH A FEW
AREAS REACHING 70 DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE RATHER BREEZY
DURING THE DAY...BUT STILL EXPECTED LESS WIND COMPARED TO THURSDAY
AS THE LOW TO MIDLEVEL GRADIENT RELAXES A BIT. KEPT POP BELOW 5
PERCENT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 323 PM MDT
WED MAR 25 2015

THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE WARM
AND DRY. WILL START OFF THE WEEKEND WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WIDESPREAD 70S WILL BE FOUND EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE AND INTO THE PLAINS WITH LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH RECORDS AS
SUNNY SKIES AND DRY DOWNSLOPE WEST WINDS ADD TO THE WARMING
POTENTIAL.

A QUICK MOVING NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS
MONTANA LATE SATURDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD
SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DO
NOT FORESEE ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SATURDAY OR SUNDAY...BUT
A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE WITH FROPA.

SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL MAKE A PUSH INTO COLORADO MONDAY AND
MAY HAVE SOME INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
SHOULD THE ENERGY SHIFT FARTHER NORTH. DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION
OF THIS DISTURBANCE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR BUT EVEN AT THAT MEASURABLE AMOUNTS WOULD
BE MINIMAL. ANOTHER FAST MOVING NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE
EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTH MID WEEK AND AGAIN VERY LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION LIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH PERHAPS
FEW-SCT IFR STRATUS AT TIMES AT KCYS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO
BEFORE WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AND DISSIPATE THIS AREA OF
CLOUD HANGING ONTO THE LARAMIE RANGE. OTHERWISE...GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THRU THURSDAY WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS
COMMON ACROSS THE AREA LATE MORNING THRU THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ELEVATED
CONCERNS EXPECTED BY THIS WEEKEND. A COOL AND DRY PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE ON THURSDAY BEFORE WARMER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURN
THE THE REGION BY SATURDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...TJT




000
FXUS63 KUNR 260446
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1046 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AB WITH WARM
FRONT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CO. BREEZY/WINDY SPOTS ACROSS THE CWA AS
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR PULLS AWAY AND LEAVES BEHIND
MODEST GRADIENT. ST/SC SLOWLY ERODING AS SOLAR INSOLATION PEAKS
AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING IS ENHANCED.

TONIGHT/THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US WILL BUILD
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS. SK SURFACE LOW WILL RACE SOUTHEAST AS WARM FRONT PUSHES
EAST. LEFT EXIT REGION OF 145KT JET STREAK WILL PROVIDE LIFT ALONG
WARM FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION LATER TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. INITIAL LIFT MAY BE WASTED ON SATURATION...BUT ONCE
RADARS LIGHT UP...SHOULD SEE A FAST MOVING BAND OF PRECIPITATION
AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE CWA.
1-2 INCHES SNOW POSSIBLE BEFORE DIURNAL EFFECTS TURN OFF
ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IF A
SUSTAINED BAND CAN DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF WARM FRONT. FURTHER WEST
LIFT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR LOWER POPS...BUT SOME WEAK ENHANCEMENT
POSSIBLE OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND THUS HIGHER POPS THERE.
BREEZY/WINDY SPOTS BEHIND SURFACE LOW AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER BEHIND WARM FRONT
FOR HIGHS THURSDAY AND NEAR GUIDANCE TONIGHT.

THURSDAY NIGHT...LEFTOVER LIFT/MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SOME -RASN
CHANGING TO -SN...BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINOR GIVEN LACK OF
STRONG FORCING/ORGANIZATION OF LOW LEVEL FEATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...MUCH WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGE CROSSES THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
EVENING...WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE. COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY...BUT WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. COLDER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW THURSDAY MORNING MAINLY TO WRN
SD...THEN CHANGING TO RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH THE SNOW...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE KRAP
TERMINAL...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE NRN BLKHLS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...JOHNSON








000
FXUS63 KUNR 260446
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1046 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AB WITH WARM
FRONT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CO. BREEZY/WINDY SPOTS ACROSS THE CWA AS
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR PULLS AWAY AND LEAVES BEHIND
MODEST GRADIENT. ST/SC SLOWLY ERODING AS SOLAR INSOLATION PEAKS
AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING IS ENHANCED.

TONIGHT/THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US WILL BUILD
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS. SK SURFACE LOW WILL RACE SOUTHEAST AS WARM FRONT PUSHES
EAST. LEFT EXIT REGION OF 145KT JET STREAK WILL PROVIDE LIFT ALONG
WARM FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION LATER TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. INITIAL LIFT MAY BE WASTED ON SATURATION...BUT ONCE
RADARS LIGHT UP...SHOULD SEE A FAST MOVING BAND OF PRECIPITATION
AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE CWA.
1-2 INCHES SNOW POSSIBLE BEFORE DIURNAL EFFECTS TURN OFF
ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IF A
SUSTAINED BAND CAN DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF WARM FRONT. FURTHER WEST
LIFT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR LOWER POPS...BUT SOME WEAK ENHANCEMENT
POSSIBLE OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND THUS HIGHER POPS THERE.
BREEZY/WINDY SPOTS BEHIND SURFACE LOW AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER BEHIND WARM FRONT
FOR HIGHS THURSDAY AND NEAR GUIDANCE TONIGHT.

THURSDAY NIGHT...LEFTOVER LIFT/MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SOME -RASN
CHANGING TO -SN...BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINOR GIVEN LACK OF
STRONG FORCING/ORGANIZATION OF LOW LEVEL FEATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...MUCH WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGE CROSSES THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
EVENING...WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE. COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY...BUT WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. COLDER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW THURSDAY MORNING MAINLY TO WRN
SD...THEN CHANGING TO RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH THE SNOW...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE KRAP
TERMINAL...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE NRN BLKHLS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...JOHNSON







000
FXUS63 KUNR 260446
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1046 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AB WITH WARM
FRONT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CO. BREEZY/WINDY SPOTS ACROSS THE CWA AS
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR PULLS AWAY AND LEAVES BEHIND
MODEST GRADIENT. ST/SC SLOWLY ERODING AS SOLAR INSOLATION PEAKS
AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING IS ENHANCED.

TONIGHT/THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US WILL BUILD
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS. SK SURFACE LOW WILL RACE SOUTHEAST AS WARM FRONT PUSHES
EAST. LEFT EXIT REGION OF 145KT JET STREAK WILL PROVIDE LIFT ALONG
WARM FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION LATER TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. INITIAL LIFT MAY BE WASTED ON SATURATION...BUT ONCE
RADARS LIGHT UP...SHOULD SEE A FAST MOVING BAND OF PRECIPITATION
AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE CWA.
1-2 INCHES SNOW POSSIBLE BEFORE DIURNAL EFFECTS TURN OFF
ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IF A
SUSTAINED BAND CAN DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF WARM FRONT. FURTHER WEST
LIFT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR LOWER POPS...BUT SOME WEAK ENHANCEMENT
POSSIBLE OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND THUS HIGHER POPS THERE.
BREEZY/WINDY SPOTS BEHIND SURFACE LOW AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER BEHIND WARM FRONT
FOR HIGHS THURSDAY AND NEAR GUIDANCE TONIGHT.

THURSDAY NIGHT...LEFTOVER LIFT/MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SOME -RASN
CHANGING TO -SN...BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINOR GIVEN LACK OF
STRONG FORCING/ORGANIZATION OF LOW LEVEL FEATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...MUCH WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGE CROSSES THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
EVENING...WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE. COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY...BUT WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. COLDER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW THURSDAY MORNING MAINLY TO WRN
SD...THEN CHANGING TO RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH THE SNOW...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE KRAP
TERMINAL...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE NRN BLKHLS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...JOHNSON








000
FXUS63 KUNR 252313
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
513 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AB WITH WARM
FRONT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CO. BREEZY/WINDY SPOTS ACROSS THE CWA AS
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR PULLS AWAY AND LEAVES BEHIND
MODEST GRADIENT. ST/SC SLOWLY ERODING AS SOLAR INSOLATION PEAKS
AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING IS ENHANCED.

TONIGHT/THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US WILL BUILD
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS. SK SURFACE LOW WILL RACE SOUTHEAST AS WARM FRONT PUSHES
EAST. LEFT EXIT REGION OF 145KT JET STREAK WILL PROVIDE LIFT ALONG
WARM FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION LATER TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. INITIAL LIFT MAY BE WASTED ON SATURATION...BUT ONCE
RADARS LIGHT UP...SHOULD SEE A FAST MOVING BAND OF PRECIPITATION
AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE CWA.
1-2 INCHES SNOW POSSIBLE BEFORE DIURNAL EFFECTS TURN OFF
ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IF A
SUSTAINED BAND CAN DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF WARM FRONT. FURTHER WEST
LIFT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR LOWER POPS...BUT SOME WEAK ENHANCEMENT
POSSIBLE OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND THUS HIGHER POPS THERE.
BREEZY/WINDY SPOTS BEHIND SURFACE LOW AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER BEHIND WARM FRONT
FOR HIGHS THURSDAY AND NEAR GUIDANCE TONIGHT.

THURSDAY NIGHT...LEFTOVER LIFT/MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SOME -RASN
CHANGING TO -SN...BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINOR GIVEN LACK OF
STRONG FORCING/ORGANIZATION OF LOW LEVEL FEATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...MUCH WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGE CROSSES THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
EVENING...WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE. COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY...BUT WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. COLDER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 510 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
MAINLY TO WRN SD...THEN CHANGING TO RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE SNOW...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE
KRAP TERMINAL...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE NRN BLKHLS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...JOHNSON







000
FXUS63 KUNR 252313
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
513 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AB WITH WARM
FRONT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CO. BREEZY/WINDY SPOTS ACROSS THE CWA AS
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR PULLS AWAY AND LEAVES BEHIND
MODEST GRADIENT. ST/SC SLOWLY ERODING AS SOLAR INSOLATION PEAKS
AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING IS ENHANCED.

TONIGHT/THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US WILL BUILD
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS. SK SURFACE LOW WILL RACE SOUTHEAST AS WARM FRONT PUSHES
EAST. LEFT EXIT REGION OF 145KT JET STREAK WILL PROVIDE LIFT ALONG
WARM FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION LATER TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. INITIAL LIFT MAY BE WASTED ON SATURATION...BUT ONCE
RADARS LIGHT UP...SHOULD SEE A FAST MOVING BAND OF PRECIPITATION
AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE CWA.
1-2 INCHES SNOW POSSIBLE BEFORE DIURNAL EFFECTS TURN OFF
ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IF A
SUSTAINED BAND CAN DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF WARM FRONT. FURTHER WEST
LIFT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR LOWER POPS...BUT SOME WEAK ENHANCEMENT
POSSIBLE OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND THUS HIGHER POPS THERE.
BREEZY/WINDY SPOTS BEHIND SURFACE LOW AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER BEHIND WARM FRONT
FOR HIGHS THURSDAY AND NEAR GUIDANCE TONIGHT.

THURSDAY NIGHT...LEFTOVER LIFT/MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SOME -RASN
CHANGING TO -SN...BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINOR GIVEN LACK OF
STRONG FORCING/ORGANIZATION OF LOW LEVEL FEATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...MUCH WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGE CROSSES THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
EVENING...WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE. COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY...BUT WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. COLDER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 510 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
MAINLY TO WRN SD...THEN CHANGING TO RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE SNOW...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE
KRAP TERMINAL...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE NRN BLKHLS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...JOHNSON






000
FXUS65 KCYS 252124
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
324 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

CURRENT KCYS RADAR LOOP SHOWS A FEW BANDS OF SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHEAST OFF OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO SOME LLVL INSTABILITY. THESE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN BRIEF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS I80...
BETWEEN LARAMIE AND PINE BLUFFS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE ACTIVITY
TO DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE
HEATING.

MODELS INDICATE NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY AS A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES SLOWLY
SLIDES EASTWARD INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION FOR LATE THIS WEEK
AND INTO THIS WEEKEND. THURSDAY WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY
COOL...BUT DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL AND GENERALLY IN THE 50S ACROSS THIS AREA. MODELS SHOW
A WEAK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT PUSHING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS ALONG WITH SOME
JET ENERGY BRUSHING THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF A DOUGLAS
TO ALLIANCE LINE. KEPT POP BETWEEN 20 TO 30 PERCENT IN THIS AREA
FOR WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...WHICH MAY MIX WITH SNOW AT
TIMES. THURSDAY WILL BE WINDY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
ESPECIALLY WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 20 TO 30
MPH AND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. HELD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE FOR NOW...BUT WINDS MAY BE CLOSE TO
CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON
THURSDAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY COMPARED
TO THURSDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES FURTHER EAST INTO
WYOMING AND COLORADO. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPERS
60S ARE EXPECTED...WARMEST OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH A FEW
AREAS REACHING 70 DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE RATHER BREEZY
DURING THE DAY...BUT STILL EXPECTED LESS WIND COMPARED TO THURSDAY
AS THE LOW TO MIDLEVEL GRADIENT RELAXES A BIT. KEPT POP BELOW 5
PERCENT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 323 PM MDT
WED MAR 25 2015

THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE WARM
AND DRY. WILL START OFF THE WEEKEND WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WIDESPREAD 70S WILL BE FOUND EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE AND INTO THE PLAINS WITH LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH RECORDS AS
SUNNY SKIES AND DRY DOWNSLOPE WEST WINDS ADD TO THE WARMING
POTENTIAL.

A QUICK MOVING NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS
MONTANTA LATE SATURDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD
SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DO
NOT FORESEE ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SATURDAY OR SUNDAY...BUT
A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE WITH FROPA.

SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL MAKE A PUSH INTO COLORADO MONDAY AND
MAY HAVE SOME INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
SHOULD THE ENERGY SHIFT FARTHER NORTH. DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION
OF THIS DISTURBANCE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR BUT EVEN AT THAT MEASURABLE AMOUNTS WOULD
BE MINIMAL. ANOTHER FAST MOVING NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE
EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTH MID WEEK AND AGAIN VERY LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION LIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 323 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

SCATTERED CONVECTIVE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND OVER MUCH
OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT THEN WILL
QUICKLY DIE OFF THIS EVENING. LOCAL MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE WITH A
FEW STRONGER SNOW SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ELEVATED
CONCERNS EXPECTED BY THIS WEEKEND. A COOL AND DRY PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE ON THURSDAY BEFORE WARMER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURN
THE THE REGION BY SATURDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...TJT




000
FXUS65 KCYS 252124
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
324 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

CURRENT KCYS RADAR LOOP SHOWS A FEW BANDS OF SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHEAST OFF OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO SOME LLVL INSTABILITY. THESE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN BRIEF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS I80...
BETWEEN LARAMIE AND PINE BLUFFS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE ACTIVITY
TO DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE
HEATING.

MODELS INDICATE NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY AS A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES SLOWLY
SLIDES EASTWARD INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION FOR LATE THIS WEEK
AND INTO THIS WEEKEND. THURSDAY WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY
COOL...BUT DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL AND GENERALLY IN THE 50S ACROSS THIS AREA. MODELS SHOW
A WEAK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT PUSHING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS ALONG WITH SOME
JET ENERGY BRUSHING THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF A DOUGLAS
TO ALLIANCE LINE. KEPT POP BETWEEN 20 TO 30 PERCENT IN THIS AREA
FOR WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...WHICH MAY MIX WITH SNOW AT
TIMES. THURSDAY WILL BE WINDY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
ESPECIALLY WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 20 TO 30
MPH AND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. HELD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE FOR NOW...BUT WINDS MAY BE CLOSE TO
CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON
THURSDAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY COMPARED
TO THURSDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES FURTHER EAST INTO
WYOMING AND COLORADO. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPERS
60S ARE EXPECTED...WARMEST OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH A FEW
AREAS REACHING 70 DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE RATHER BREEZY
DURING THE DAY...BUT STILL EXPECTED LESS WIND COMPARED TO THURSDAY
AS THE LOW TO MIDLEVEL GRADIENT RELAXES A BIT. KEPT POP BELOW 5
PERCENT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 323 PM MDT
WED MAR 25 2015

THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE WARM
AND DRY. WILL START OFF THE WEEKEND WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WIDESPREAD 70S WILL BE FOUND EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE AND INTO THE PLAINS WITH LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH RECORDS AS
SUNNY SKIES AND DRY DOWNSLOPE WEST WINDS ADD TO THE WARMING
POTENTIAL.

A QUICK MOVING NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS
MONTANTA LATE SATURDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD
SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DO
NOT FORESEE ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SATURDAY OR SUNDAY...BUT
A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE WITH FROPA.

SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL MAKE A PUSH INTO COLORADO MONDAY AND
MAY HAVE SOME INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
SHOULD THE ENERGY SHIFT FARTHER NORTH. DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION
OF THIS DISTURBANCE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR BUT EVEN AT THAT MEASURABLE AMOUNTS WOULD
BE MINIMAL. ANOTHER FAST MOVING NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE
EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTH MID WEEK AND AGAIN VERY LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION LIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 323 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

SCATTERED CONVECTIVE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND OVER MUCH
OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT THEN WILL
QUICKLY DIE OFF THIS EVENING. LOCAL MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE WITH A
FEW STRONGER SNOW SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ELEVATED
CONCERNS EXPECTED BY THIS WEEKEND. A COOL AND DRY PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE ON THURSDAY BEFORE WARMER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURN
THE THE REGION BY SATURDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...TJT



000
FXUS63 KUNR 252028
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
228 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AB WITH WARM
FRONT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CO. BREEZY/WINDY SPOTS ACROSS THE CWA AS
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR PULLS AWAY AND LEAVES BEHIND
MODEST GRADIENT. ST/SC SLOWLY ERODING AS SOLAR INSOLATION PEAKS
AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING IS ENHANCED.

TONIGHT/THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US WILL BUILD
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS. SK SURFACE LOW WILL RACE SOUTHEAST AS WARM FRONT PUSHES
EAST. LEFT EXIT REGION OF 145KT JET STREAK WILL PROVIDE LIFT ALONG
WARM FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION LATER TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. INITIAL LIFT MAY BE WASTED ON SATURATION...BUT ONCE
RADARS LIGHT UP...SHOULD SEE A FAST MOVING BAND OF PRECIPITATION
AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE CWA.
1-2 INCHES SNOW POSSIBLE BEFORE DIURNAL EFFECTS TURN OFF
ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IF A
SUSTAINED BAND CAN DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF WARM FRONT. FURTHER WEST
LIFT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR LOWER POPS...BUT SOME WEAK ENHANCEMENT
POSSIBLE OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND THUS HIGHER POPS THERE.
BREEZY/WINDY SPOTS BEHIND SURFACE LOW AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER BEHIND WARM FRONT
FOR HIGHS THURSDAY AND NEAR GUIDANCE TONIGHT.

THURSDAY NIGHT...LEFTOVER LIFT/MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SOME -RASN
CHANGING TO -SN...BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINOR GIVEN LACK OF
STRONG FORCING/ORGANIZATION OF LOW LEVEL FEATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...MUCH WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGE CROSSES THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
EVENING...WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE. COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY...BUT WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. COLDER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NE WY AND WRN SD. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING MAINLY TO WRN SD...THEN CHANGING TO RAIN THROUGH THE DAY.
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO PORTIONS OF WRN SD...AND
ACROSS THE BLKHLS AREA.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13





000
FXUS63 KUNR 252028
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
228 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AB WITH WARM
FRONT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CO. BREEZY/WINDY SPOTS ACROSS THE CWA AS
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR PULLS AWAY AND LEAVES BEHIND
MODEST GRADIENT. ST/SC SLOWLY ERODING AS SOLAR INSOLATION PEAKS
AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING IS ENHANCED.

TONIGHT/THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US WILL BUILD
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS. SK SURFACE LOW WILL RACE SOUTHEAST AS WARM FRONT PUSHES
EAST. LEFT EXIT REGION OF 145KT JET STREAK WILL PROVIDE LIFT ALONG
WARM FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION LATER TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. INITIAL LIFT MAY BE WASTED ON SATURATION...BUT ONCE
RADARS LIGHT UP...SHOULD SEE A FAST MOVING BAND OF PRECIPITATION
AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE CWA.
1-2 INCHES SNOW POSSIBLE BEFORE DIURNAL EFFECTS TURN OFF
ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IF A
SUSTAINED BAND CAN DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF WARM FRONT. FURTHER WEST
LIFT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR LOWER POPS...BUT SOME WEAK ENHANCEMENT
POSSIBLE OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND THUS HIGHER POPS THERE.
BREEZY/WINDY SPOTS BEHIND SURFACE LOW AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER BEHIND WARM FRONT
FOR HIGHS THURSDAY AND NEAR GUIDANCE TONIGHT.

THURSDAY NIGHT...LEFTOVER LIFT/MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SOME -RASN
CHANGING TO -SN...BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINOR GIVEN LACK OF
STRONG FORCING/ORGANIZATION OF LOW LEVEL FEATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...MUCH WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGE CROSSES THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
EVENING...WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE. COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY...BUT WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. COLDER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NE WY AND WRN SD. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING MAINLY TO WRN SD...THEN CHANGING TO RAIN THROUGH THE DAY.
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO PORTIONS OF WRN SD...AND
ACROSS THE BLKHLS AREA.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13




000
FXUS65 KRIW 251945
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
145 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR ERN ZONES IS AIDING IN SOME WEAK SHOWERS AND
LOWER CIGS WHILE WARM ADVECTION SPILLOVER CLOUDS ARE ALREADY MOVING
INTO THE WEST. WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS IN THE ERN ZONES THROUGH 00Z
BEFORE RETREATING THEM INTO THE MOUNTAINS. STORM SYSTEM CAME THROUGH
ABOUT AS EXPECTED LAST NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING EXCEPT THE MAIN
BAND WAS NOT AS INTENSE IN NATRONA COUNTY WHERE AMOUNTS WHERE
GENERALLY ONLY A SKIFF TO 2 INCHES. THE REST OF THE AREA WORKED
OUT WELL. AS THE RIDGE MOVES/BUILDS IN THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
INCREASES ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH THE ATMOSPHERE
MOISTENING ENOUGH OVER THE NRN MOUNTAINS TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE SOME
VERY LIGHT SNOW OF FLURRIES AT TIMES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES WARMER ON THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA AND DRY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

BEGINNING OF FCST...UPR RIDGE ACROSS WRN CONUS...SW AND SFC FRONT
THRU ERN WY AND OFF INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS WITH LARGE TROF OVR
THE ERN 2/3S OF THE CONUS. SFC WILL HAVE HI P BEGINNING TO TAKE
HOLD...BUILDING IN FROM THE SW.

FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE LR MDLS THRU SUN MORNING BEFORE SIG
DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO ARISE. BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...RIDGING AND
WARMING THRU SAT MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT WX SYSTEM. CYCLOGENESIS
ACROSS THE NWRN CONUS WILL OCCUR FRI NIGHT...MATURING AND RACING
EWD...BUSTING INTO THE RIDGE AND ARRIVING W/ FRONT NEAR THE WRN FA
BY MID-DAY SAT. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM DYNAMICALLY WILL BE DECENT
ENOUGH...ESPECIALLY WHEN ASSOCIATED 100 KT JET IS COMBINED WITH THE
LL FRONT...GOOD CONVECTIVE NATURE...AND TERRAIN FEATURES...THE SPEED
OF MOVEMENT AND GENERAL LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP PRECIP TOTALS ON
THE LOW SIDE AT LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH UNDER THE BEST
CIRCUMSTANCES. HOWEVER...THAT SAID...THE IMPACT OF THE DAY THAT WILL
RESULT FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL INCLUDE A RAPID INCREASE IN SFC WINDS
OUT OF THE WEST...BOTH JUST AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT... AS  THE
LOWER LVLS WARM...UPPER LEVEL WINDS INCREASE...AND THE SFC P GRAD
TIGHTENS VERY QUICKLY. AS A MATTER OF FACT...MOST OF THE FA CAN
EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME WRLY 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS RANGING FROM 40
TO 50 MPH. THIS COMBINED WITH DECLINING RH VALUES BY AFTERNOON WILL
PUT SOME OF THE CWA UNDER NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY FIRE
WX ZONES 279 280 AND 289. WILL MONITOR OVR THE NEXT 24 HRS FOR
POSSIBLE FWW. ADDITIONALLY...A FEW OF THE HIGH BASED SHOWERS MAY
PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED LIGHTNING SAT AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NRN FA WHERE MID LVL CONVECTIVE DYNAMICS WILL BE
STRONGER...BUT AGAIN OVR MOISTURE DEPRIVED LOWER LEVELS.

INTO THE BEYOND...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE. AS MENTIONED
BEFORE...MDLS BEGIN TO DIVERGE...PARTICULARLY W/ REGARD TO TIMING
DIFFERENCES THIS TIME AROUND. THIS WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE ARRIVAL
OF THE DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE REGION TUE...THE EURO BEING THE
FIRST TO ARRIVE AND LEAVE...OTHERS FOLLOWING. SPATIAL TRENDS BETWEEN
THE MDLS...HOWEVER...DO KEEP THE BETTER WX PARAMETERS MAINLY ACROSS
THE NRN THIRD OF THE CWA...SO REALLY JUST A MATTER OF STRETCHING CHC
POPS ENOUGH TO FIT WITHIN THE UNCERTAINTY OF ALL THE MDLS. TEMPORAL
DIFFERENCES DECREASE AFTER WED...WITH THE CONSENSUS OF ARRIVAL OF
THE NEXT WX MAKER TO BE MID-DAY THU IN THE WEST...PERHAPS
INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE FA...AND CONTINUING THRU AT LEAST FRI
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
THIS EVENING WITH THOSE CONDS CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. VFR
CONDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS BUT THERE WILL BE SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AT TIMES
DUE TO THE OCCASIONAL FLURRIES OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF MAINLY
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SNOW SHOWERS WILL RETREAT TO THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND DECREASE TO
FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE DRY AND
ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER ON THURSDAY WITH BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
AREAS. MIN RH`S WILL BE ABOUT 25 TO 40 PERCENT. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
WARMUP WILL OCCUR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY...HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S EAST OF THE DIVIDE WITH MIN RH`S IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S ALONG WITH INCREASING WIND AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ON SATURDAY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PS
LONG TERM...BRAUN
AVIATION...PS
FIRE WEATHER...PS








000
FXUS65 KRIW 251945
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
145 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR ERN ZONES IS AIDING IN SOME WEAK SHOWERS AND
LOWER CIGS WHILE WARM ADVECTION SPILLOVER CLOUDS ARE ALREADY MOVING
INTO THE WEST. WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS IN THE ERN ZONES THROUGH 00Z
BEFORE RETREATING THEM INTO THE MOUNTAINS. STORM SYSTEM CAME THROUGH
ABOUT AS EXPECTED LAST NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING EXCEPT THE MAIN
BAND WAS NOT AS INTENSE IN NATRONA COUNTY WHERE AMOUNTS WHERE
GENERALLY ONLY A SKIFF TO 2 INCHES. THE REST OF THE AREA WORKED
OUT WELL. AS THE RIDGE MOVES/BUILDS IN THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
INCREASES ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH THE ATMOSPHERE
MOISTENING ENOUGH OVER THE NRN MOUNTAINS TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE SOME
VERY LIGHT SNOW OF FLURRIES AT TIMES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES WARMER ON THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA AND DRY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

BEGINNING OF FCST...UPR RIDGE ACROSS WRN CONUS...SW AND SFC FRONT
THRU ERN WY AND OFF INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS WITH LARGE TROF OVR
THE ERN 2/3S OF THE CONUS. SFC WILL HAVE HI P BEGINNING TO TAKE
HOLD...BUILDING IN FROM THE SW.

FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE LR MDLS THRU SUN MORNING BEFORE SIG
DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO ARISE. BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...RIDGING AND
WARMING THRU SAT MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT WX SYSTEM. CYCLOGENESIS
ACROSS THE NWRN CONUS WILL OCCUR FRI NIGHT...MATURING AND RACING
EWD...BUSTING INTO THE RIDGE AND ARRIVING W/ FRONT NEAR THE WRN FA
BY MID-DAY SAT. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM DYNAMICALLY WILL BE DECENT
ENOUGH...ESPECIALLY WHEN ASSOCIATED 100 KT JET IS COMBINED WITH THE
LL FRONT...GOOD CONVECTIVE NATURE...AND TERRAIN FEATURES...THE SPEED
OF MOVEMENT AND GENERAL LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP PRECIP TOTALS ON
THE LOW SIDE AT LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH UNDER THE BEST
CIRCUMSTANCES. HOWEVER...THAT SAID...THE IMPACT OF THE DAY THAT WILL
RESULT FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL INCLUDE A RAPID INCREASE IN SFC WINDS
OUT OF THE WEST...BOTH JUST AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT... AS  THE
LOWER LVLS WARM...UPPER LEVEL WINDS INCREASE...AND THE SFC P GRAD
TIGHTENS VERY QUICKLY. AS A MATTER OF FACT...MOST OF THE FA CAN
EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME WRLY 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS RANGING FROM 40
TO 50 MPH. THIS COMBINED WITH DECLINING RH VALUES BY AFTERNOON WILL
PUT SOME OF THE CWA UNDER NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY FIRE
WX ZONES 279 280 AND 289. WILL MONITOR OVR THE NEXT 24 HRS FOR
POSSIBLE FWW. ADDITIONALLY...A FEW OF THE HIGH BASED SHOWERS MAY
PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED LIGHTNING SAT AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NRN FA WHERE MID LVL CONVECTIVE DYNAMICS WILL BE
STRONGER...BUT AGAIN OVR MOISTURE DEPRIVED LOWER LEVELS.

INTO THE BEYOND...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE. AS MENTIONED
BEFORE...MDLS BEGIN TO DIVERGE...PARTICULARLY W/ REGARD TO TIMING
DIFFERENCES THIS TIME AROUND. THIS WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE ARRIVAL
OF THE DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE REGION TUE...THE EURO BEING THE
FIRST TO ARRIVE AND LEAVE...OTHERS FOLLOWING. SPATIAL TRENDS BETWEEN
THE MDLS...HOWEVER...DO KEEP THE BETTER WX PARAMETERS MAINLY ACROSS
THE NRN THIRD OF THE CWA...SO REALLY JUST A MATTER OF STRETCHING CHC
POPS ENOUGH TO FIT WITHIN THE UNCERTAINTY OF ALL THE MDLS. TEMPORAL
DIFFERENCES DECREASE AFTER WED...WITH THE CONSENSUS OF ARRIVAL OF
THE NEXT WX MAKER TO BE MID-DAY THU IN THE WEST...PERHAPS
INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE FA...AND CONTINUING THRU AT LEAST FRI
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
THIS EVENING WITH THOSE CONDS CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. VFR
CONDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS BUT THERE WILL BE SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AT TIMES
DUE TO THE OCCASIONAL FLURRIES OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF MAINLY
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SNOW SHOWERS WILL RETREAT TO THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND DECREASE TO
FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE DRY AND
ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER ON THURSDAY WITH BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
AREAS. MIN RH`S WILL BE ABOUT 25 TO 40 PERCENT. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
WARMUP WILL OCCUR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY...HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S EAST OF THE DIVIDE WITH MIN RH`S IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S ALONG WITH INCREASING WIND AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ON SATURDAY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PS
LONG TERM...BRAUN
AVIATION...PS
FIRE WEATHER...PS









000
FXUS65 KRIW 251945
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
145 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR ERN ZONES IS AIDING IN SOME WEAK SHOWERS AND
LOWER CIGS WHILE WARM ADVECTION SPILLOVER CLOUDS ARE ALREADY MOVING
INTO THE WEST. WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS IN THE ERN ZONES THROUGH 00Z
BEFORE RETREATING THEM INTO THE MOUNTAINS. STORM SYSTEM CAME THROUGH
ABOUT AS EXPECTED LAST NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING EXCEPT THE MAIN
BAND WAS NOT AS INTENSE IN NATRONA COUNTY WHERE AMOUNTS WHERE
GENERALLY ONLY A SKIFF TO 2 INCHES. THE REST OF THE AREA WORKED
OUT WELL. AS THE RIDGE MOVES/BUILDS IN THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
INCREASES ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH THE ATMOSPHERE
MOISTENING ENOUGH OVER THE NRN MOUNTAINS TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE SOME
VERY LIGHT SNOW OF FLURRIES AT TIMES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES WARMER ON THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA AND DRY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

BEGINNING OF FCST...UPR RIDGE ACROSS WRN CONUS...SW AND SFC FRONT
THRU ERN WY AND OFF INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS WITH LARGE TROF OVR
THE ERN 2/3S OF THE CONUS. SFC WILL HAVE HI P BEGINNING TO TAKE
HOLD...BUILDING IN FROM THE SW.

FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE LR MDLS THRU SUN MORNING BEFORE SIG
DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO ARISE. BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...RIDGING AND
WARMING THRU SAT MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT WX SYSTEM. CYCLOGENESIS
ACROSS THE NWRN CONUS WILL OCCUR FRI NIGHT...MATURING AND RACING
EWD...BUSTING INTO THE RIDGE AND ARRIVING W/ FRONT NEAR THE WRN FA
BY MID-DAY SAT. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM DYNAMICALLY WILL BE DECENT
ENOUGH...ESPECIALLY WHEN ASSOCIATED 100 KT JET IS COMBINED WITH THE
LL FRONT...GOOD CONVECTIVE NATURE...AND TERRAIN FEATURES...THE SPEED
OF MOVEMENT AND GENERAL LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP PRECIP TOTALS ON
THE LOW SIDE AT LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH UNDER THE BEST
CIRCUMSTANCES. HOWEVER...THAT SAID...THE IMPACT OF THE DAY THAT WILL
RESULT FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL INCLUDE A RAPID INCREASE IN SFC WINDS
OUT OF THE WEST...BOTH JUST AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT... AS  THE
LOWER LVLS WARM...UPPER LEVEL WINDS INCREASE...AND THE SFC P GRAD
TIGHTENS VERY QUICKLY. AS A MATTER OF FACT...MOST OF THE FA CAN
EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME WRLY 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS RANGING FROM 40
TO 50 MPH. THIS COMBINED WITH DECLINING RH VALUES BY AFTERNOON WILL
PUT SOME OF THE CWA UNDER NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY FIRE
WX ZONES 279 280 AND 289. WILL MONITOR OVR THE NEXT 24 HRS FOR
POSSIBLE FWW. ADDITIONALLY...A FEW OF THE HIGH BASED SHOWERS MAY
PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED LIGHTNING SAT AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NRN FA WHERE MID LVL CONVECTIVE DYNAMICS WILL BE
STRONGER...BUT AGAIN OVR MOISTURE DEPRIVED LOWER LEVELS.

INTO THE BEYOND...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE. AS MENTIONED
BEFORE...MDLS BEGIN TO DIVERGE...PARTICULARLY W/ REGARD TO TIMING
DIFFERENCES THIS TIME AROUND. THIS WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE ARRIVAL
OF THE DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE REGION TUE...THE EURO BEING THE
FIRST TO ARRIVE AND LEAVE...OTHERS FOLLOWING. SPATIAL TRENDS BETWEEN
THE MDLS...HOWEVER...DO KEEP THE BETTER WX PARAMETERS MAINLY ACROSS
THE NRN THIRD OF THE CWA...SO REALLY JUST A MATTER OF STRETCHING CHC
POPS ENOUGH TO FIT WITHIN THE UNCERTAINTY OF ALL THE MDLS. TEMPORAL
DIFFERENCES DECREASE AFTER WED...WITH THE CONSENSUS OF ARRIVAL OF
THE NEXT WX MAKER TO BE MID-DAY THU IN THE WEST...PERHAPS
INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE FA...AND CONTINUING THRU AT LEAST FRI
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
THIS EVENING WITH THOSE CONDS CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. VFR
CONDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS BUT THERE WILL BE SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AT TIMES
DUE TO THE OCCASIONAL FLURRIES OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF MAINLY
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SNOW SHOWERS WILL RETREAT TO THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND DECREASE TO
FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE DRY AND
ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER ON THURSDAY WITH BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
AREAS. MIN RH`S WILL BE ABOUT 25 TO 40 PERCENT. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
WARMUP WILL OCCUR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY...HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S EAST OF THE DIVIDE WITH MIN RH`S IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S ALONG WITH INCREASING WIND AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ON SATURDAY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PS
LONG TERM...BRAUN
AVIATION...PS
FIRE WEATHER...PS








000
FXUS65 KRIW 251945
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
145 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR ERN ZONES IS AIDING IN SOME WEAK SHOWERS AND
LOWER CIGS WHILE WARM ADVECTION SPILLOVER CLOUDS ARE ALREADY MOVING
INTO THE WEST. WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS IN THE ERN ZONES THROUGH 00Z
BEFORE RETREATING THEM INTO THE MOUNTAINS. STORM SYSTEM CAME THROUGH
ABOUT AS EXPECTED LAST NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING EXCEPT THE MAIN
BAND WAS NOT AS INTENSE IN NATRONA COUNTY WHERE AMOUNTS WHERE
GENERALLY ONLY A SKIFF TO 2 INCHES. THE REST OF THE AREA WORKED
OUT WELL. AS THE RIDGE MOVES/BUILDS IN THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
INCREASES ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH THE ATMOSPHERE
MOISTENING ENOUGH OVER THE NRN MOUNTAINS TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE SOME
VERY LIGHT SNOW OF FLURRIES AT TIMES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES WARMER ON THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA AND DRY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

BEGINNING OF FCST...UPR RIDGE ACROSS WRN CONUS...SW AND SFC FRONT
THRU ERN WY AND OFF INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS WITH LARGE TROF OVR
THE ERN 2/3S OF THE CONUS. SFC WILL HAVE HI P BEGINNING TO TAKE
HOLD...BUILDING IN FROM THE SW.

FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE LR MDLS THRU SUN MORNING BEFORE SIG
DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO ARISE. BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...RIDGING AND
WARMING THRU SAT MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT WX SYSTEM. CYCLOGENESIS
ACROSS THE NWRN CONUS WILL OCCUR FRI NIGHT...MATURING AND RACING
EWD...BUSTING INTO THE RIDGE AND ARRIVING W/ FRONT NEAR THE WRN FA
BY MID-DAY SAT. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM DYNAMICALLY WILL BE DECENT
ENOUGH...ESPECIALLY WHEN ASSOCIATED 100 KT JET IS COMBINED WITH THE
LL FRONT...GOOD CONVECTIVE NATURE...AND TERRAIN FEATURES...THE SPEED
OF MOVEMENT AND GENERAL LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP PRECIP TOTALS ON
THE LOW SIDE AT LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH UNDER THE BEST
CIRCUMSTANCES. HOWEVER...THAT SAID...THE IMPACT OF THE DAY THAT WILL
RESULT FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL INCLUDE A RAPID INCREASE IN SFC WINDS
OUT OF THE WEST...BOTH JUST AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT... AS  THE
LOWER LVLS WARM...UPPER LEVEL WINDS INCREASE...AND THE SFC P GRAD
TIGHTENS VERY QUICKLY. AS A MATTER OF FACT...MOST OF THE FA CAN
EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME WRLY 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS RANGING FROM 40
TO 50 MPH. THIS COMBINED WITH DECLINING RH VALUES BY AFTERNOON WILL
PUT SOME OF THE CWA UNDER NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY FIRE
WX ZONES 279 280 AND 289. WILL MONITOR OVR THE NEXT 24 HRS FOR
POSSIBLE FWW. ADDITIONALLY...A FEW OF THE HIGH BASED SHOWERS MAY
PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED LIGHTNING SAT AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NRN FA WHERE MID LVL CONVECTIVE DYNAMICS WILL BE
STRONGER...BUT AGAIN OVR MOISTURE DEPRIVED LOWER LEVELS.

INTO THE BEYOND...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE. AS MENTIONED
BEFORE...MDLS BEGIN TO DIVERGE...PARTICULARLY W/ REGARD TO TIMING
DIFFERENCES THIS TIME AROUND. THIS WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE ARRIVAL
OF THE DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE REGION TUE...THE EURO BEING THE
FIRST TO ARRIVE AND LEAVE...OTHERS FOLLOWING. SPATIAL TRENDS BETWEEN
THE MDLS...HOWEVER...DO KEEP THE BETTER WX PARAMETERS MAINLY ACROSS
THE NRN THIRD OF THE CWA...SO REALLY JUST A MATTER OF STRETCHING CHC
POPS ENOUGH TO FIT WITHIN THE UNCERTAINTY OF ALL THE MDLS. TEMPORAL
DIFFERENCES DECREASE AFTER WED...WITH THE CONSENSUS OF ARRIVAL OF
THE NEXT WX MAKER TO BE MID-DAY THU IN THE WEST...PERHAPS
INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE FA...AND CONTINUING THRU AT LEAST FRI
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
THIS EVENING WITH THOSE CONDS CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. VFR
CONDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS BUT THERE WILL BE SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AT TIMES
DUE TO THE OCCASIONAL FLURRIES OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF MAINLY
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SNOW SHOWERS WILL RETREAT TO THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND DECREASE TO
FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE DRY AND
ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER ON THURSDAY WITH BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
AREAS. MIN RH`S WILL BE ABOUT 25 TO 40 PERCENT. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
WARMUP WILL OCCUR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY...HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S EAST OF THE DIVIDE WITH MIN RH`S IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S ALONG WITH INCREASING WIND AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ON SATURDAY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PS
LONG TERM...BRAUN
AVIATION...PS
FIRE WEATHER...PS









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