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000
FXUS65 KCYS 020556
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1156 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

TRANQUIL WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM. FORECAST CHALLENGE DEALS WITH
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY THAT COULD BRING
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR EASTERN CWFA.

CURRENTLY...1030MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN MONTANA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH TO A 1028MB
SURFACE HIGH NEAR CHEYENNE. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT US
THE SNOW YESTERDAY HAS NOW MOVED INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. STILL
SEEING A COLD NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND OVER OUR CWFA. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE PANHANDLE.

PRETTY QUIET TONIGHT WITH WESTERLY WINDS RETURNING. SHOULD SEE
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY WEATHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS
QUITE COLD WITH TEENS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND LOW TO MID
20S EAST.

GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA...DIGGING SOUTHWEST INTO OUR EASTERN CWFA MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
POPS TO THE FORECAST FOR THE PANHANDLE AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
WYOMING COUNTIES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING. GFS HAS SHOWERS CONTINUING UNTIL ABOUT NOON TIME TUESDAY
BEFORE ENDING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THU...GIVEN LIMITED
MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. 700 HPA TEMPERATURES TO +10 C
SHOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 70S ON THU/FRI. WE MAY EVEN
SEE A FEW 80S IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THE MODELS ARE NOW COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY W/
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF A SIGNIFICANT CLOSED
LOW ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE WESTERN US. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE
FOR A STORMY WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 50 F AND COOLING ALOFT MAY SUPPORT
CAPES BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 J/KG PER THE GFS ALONG WITH INCREASING
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON
FRI AND/OR SAT AFTERNOONS. THE GFS STILL SUGGESTS H7 TEMPS FALLING
TO BETWEEN -2 AND -4 DEG C ON SUNDAY...SO THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL
FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION ON MOTHERS DAY. THIS IS STILL A BIT OF AN
OUTLIER...SO ONLY MADE A SLIGHT NUDGE TOWARD COOLER TEMPS LATER IN
THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CIGS WITH BASES AROUND
5000 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT SNY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS
WILL MOSTLY BE BELOW 15 KTS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT AIA BY THE EARLY EVENING ON
MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THOUGH
WE DO BEGIN TO WARM THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES SHOULD STAY WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS...FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20 PERCENT RANGE EACH
AFTERNOON. WINDS STAY FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE THEY
BEGIN TO INCREASE THURSDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO WESTERN WYOMING.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...GCC



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000
FXUS65 KRIW 020510
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1110 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY (ISSUED AT 120 PM MDT)

GENERAL BROAD LW TROF ACROSS THE CONUS WITH A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED
TROF/CLOSED LOWS STIRRING THE POT WITHIN. THE LOW MOST SIGNIFICANT
FOR THE FA IS QUITE BROAD AND LOCATIONS OVR THE SRN GREAT BASIN AND
MOJAVE DESERT REGION. OVR/NEAR WY...UPR RIDGE IS ACTUALLY FOLDING
INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE STATE...DRYING THE MID AND UPR ATMOSPHERE
AND PUTTING THE KABASH ON MOST PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. FROM CNTRL
WY SWD...A FEW LINGER AREAS OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ALL THAT
REMAIN OF THE STORM SYSTEM OF THE PAST FEW DAYS. SFC SHOWS HIGH P
BUILDING INTO THE ERN 2/3RDS OF WY...WITH LOW P OVR THE GREAT
BASIN...AND BRISK ERLY WINDS BLOWING ACROSS THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE.

TODAY WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY THE FOLDING RIDGE AND DRYING ACROSS THE
FA FROM N TO S THROUGH THE DAY...WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING MORNING
SHOWERS GIVING WAY TO A SPURIOUS INSTABILITY SHOWER OR TWO...MAINLY
IN THE BIGHORN...LARAMIE...OR MEDICINE BOW MOUNTAINS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...A WARM UP BEGINS...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO
THE 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TODAY...WITH 30S AND
40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. MONDAY...UPR LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SW GETS
ABSORBED INTO THE FLOW...WHILE AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE
WRN CONUS...FURTHER PUSHING MOISTURE OUT OF THE REGION. IT WILL WARM
INTO THE 50S AND 60S WHILE REMAINING 99 PERCENT DRY MONDAY...EXCEPT
FOR A VERY SLIGHT POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVR THE BIGHORN
OR CASPER MOUNTAINS...OR NEAR THE EXTREME SRN PORTION OF WY WHICH
WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE REMAINING BUT DWINDLING MOISTURE POOL.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

DRYING OCCURS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS A DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AREA MOVES SOUTH FROM ALBERTA ON MONDAY NIGHT.  AS AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WEST...SIGNIFICANT DRYING AND
WARMING OCCURS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 6
TO10DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS.  WHEN THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO
EASTERN WYOMING...SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVES INTO WESTERN WYOMING
WITH SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY OVER THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. THE SPREAD BETWEEN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS BECOMES
QUITE LARGE...BUT WITH A GENERAL LONG WAVE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...THE
MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE AREA WHERE LONG
WAVE TROUGHS BRACKET THE RIDGE. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HIGHS WARM
NICELY INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES IN
THE BIGHORN BASIN.  SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BECOME SCATTERED OVER THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO HEATING. SHOULD
HAVE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE ON THE GROUND TO EVAPORATE AND PROVIDE
NEEDED MOISTURE FOR CONVECTION...AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
GREAT BASIN ON FRIDAY. YET ANOTHER CUT OFF LOW...WITH UPLSOPE FLOW
EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE AREA WITH COOLING
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIFT SUPPORTING A RETURN TO
AREAS OF SNOW AND RAIN MOVING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO COOL SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY AS SHOWERS BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AND EAST TO NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW DEEPENS AND MOISTENS.
SNOW LEVEL SHOULD START OUT AROUND 9000 FEET WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX
DOWN TO 7500 FEET.  SUNDAY SHOULD SEE DECREASING PRECIPITATION WITH
COLD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE DIVERGENT
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH SIGNIFICANTLY
DECREASES THE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE DECREASE IN
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...KJAC/KRKS/KPNA/KBPI AIRPORTS

VFR CONDITIONS TO OCCUR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...KCPR/KCOD/KRIW/KWRL/KLND AIRPORTS

VFR CONDITIONS TO OCCUR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

TODAY...LOW FIRE DANGER FOR ALL LOCATIONS CONTINUES WITH HIGH
MINIMUM RH VALUES ONLY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S TO MID 60S (PERCENT)
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. ISOLATED LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE ACROSS WYOMING TODAY.  WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF WYOMING TODAY. MONDAY GREEN UP WILL BEGIN IN
EARNEST UNDER WARMING AND DRYING CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE. MINIMUM RH
VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 20S TO PERHAPS THE UPPER TEENS (PERCENT)
FOR MANY LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND AT ALL
LOCATIONS...FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN LOW.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAUN
LONG TERM...C.BAKER
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN



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000
FXUS63 KUNR 020436
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1036 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

UPPER RIDGING REMAINS ACROSS THE PAC NW INTO THE CNDN ROCKIES...WITH
AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SW SETTING UP A REX BLOCKING PATTERN.
1028MB SURFACE HIGH SITS ACROSS THE NRN TO CNTRL PLAINS...WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS HAVE REACHED THE 50S TO
LOW 60S. QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS IN THE 30S. COMPACT UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO
DROP SOUTH ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE MONDAY...THROUGH THE SRN
CNDN PLAINS INTO THE DAKOTAS. THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE CWA BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND LOW TOPPED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTN/EVNG. PRECIP SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA BY
MIDNIGHT. WITH THIS WAVE...LOOKS LIKE N/NW WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY
DURING THE DAY. DID ALSO DROP HIGHS SLIGHTLY WITH HIGHER CLOUD
COVER...HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN
PLAINS AND DOMINATE OUR WX FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE RESULT WILL
BE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY. GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW
A LARGE DESERT SW LOW FOR THE TAIL END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE LOW
SLOWLY MIGRATING NEWD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PCPN INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST PLACES. A SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SCT-
ISOLD SHRA/TS OVER THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCAL
MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC




000
FXUS65 KCYS 012338
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
538 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

TRANQUIL WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM. FORECAST CHALLENGE DEALS WITH
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY THAT COULD BRING
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR EASTERN CWFA.

CURRENTLY...1030MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN MONTANA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH TO A 1028MB
SURFACE HIGH NEAR CHEYENNE. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT US
THE SNOW YESTERDAY HAS NOW MOVED INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. STILL
SEEING A COLD NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND OVER OUR CWFA. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE PANHANDLE.

PRETTY QUIET TONIGHT WITH WESTERLY WINDS RETURNING. SHOULD SEE
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY WEATHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS
QUITE COLD WITH TEENS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND LOW TO MID
20S EAST.

GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA...DIGGING SOUTHWEST INTO OUR EASTERN CWFA MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
POPS TO THE FORECAST FOR THE PANHANDLE AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
WYOMING COUNTIES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING. GFS HAS SHOWERS CONTINUING UNTIL ABOUT NOON TIME TUESDAY
BEFORE ENDING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THU...GIVEN LIMITED
MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. 700 HPA TEMPERATURES TO +10 C
SHOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 70S ON THU/FRI. WE MAY EVEN
SEE A FEW 80S IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THE MODELS ARE NOW COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY W/
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF A SIGNIFICANT CLOSED
LOW ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE WESTERN US. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE
FOR A STORMY WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 50 F AND COOLING ALOFT MAY SUPPORT
CAPES BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 J/KG PER THE GFS ALONG WITH INCREASING
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON
FRI AND/OR SAT AFTERNOONS. THE GFS STILL SUGGESTS H7 TEMPS FALLING
TO BETWEEN -2 AND -4 DEG C ON SUNDAY...SO THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL
FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION ON MOTHERS DAY. THIS IS STILL A BIT OF AN
OUTLIER...SO ONLY MADE A SLIGHT NUDGE TOWARD COOLER TEMPS LATER IN
THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 528 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

NOT MANY CONCERNS THIS EVENING. LATEST SATELLITE LOOP WAS SHOWING
THE CUMULUS FIELD GRADUALLY DISSIPATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE STATE. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FURTHER SOUTH AS THE
EVENING WEARS ON DUE TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN NORTH DAKOTA IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AND
MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE CDR/AIA TAF SITES LATE IN THE
DAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THOUGH
WE DO BEGIN TO WARM THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES SHOULD STAY WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS...FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20 PERCENT RANGE EACH
AFTERNOON. WINDS STAY FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE THEY
BEGIN TO INCREASE THURSDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO WESTERN WYOMING.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...REC
FIRE WEATHER...GCC




000
FXUS63 KUNR 012328
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
528 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

UPPER RIDGING REMAINS ACROSS THE PAC NW INTO THE CNDN ROCKIES...WITH
AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SW SETTING UP A REX BLOCKING PATTERN.
1028MB SURFACE HIGH SITS ACROSS THE NRN TO CNTRL PLAINS...WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS HAVE REACHED THE 50S TO
LOW 60S. QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS IN THE 30S. COMPACT UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO
DROP SOUTH ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE MONDAY...THROUGH THE SRN
CNDN PLAINS INTO THE DAKOTAS. THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE CWA BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND LOW TOPPED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTN/EVNG. PRECIP SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA BY
MIDNIGHT. WITH THIS WAVE...LOOKS LIKE N/NW WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY
DURING THE DAY. DID ALSO DROP HIGHS SLIGHTLY WITH HIGHER CLOUD
COVER...HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN
PLAINS AND DOMINATE OUR WX FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE RESULT WILL
BE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY. GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW
A LARGE DESERT SW LOW FOR THE TAIL END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE LOW
SLOWLY MIGRATING NEWD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PCPN INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 526 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING SCT-ISOLD SHRA/TS OVER THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY TS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC




000
FXUS63 KUNR 012051
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
251 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

UPPER RIDGING REMAINS ACROSS THE PAC NW INTO THE CNDN ROCKIES...WITH
AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SW SETTING UP A REX BLOCKING PATTERN.
1028MB SURFACE HIGH SITS ACROSS THE NRN TO CNTRL PLAINS...WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS HAVE REACHED THE 50S TO
LOW 60S. QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS IN THE 30S. COMPACT UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO
DROP SOUTH ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE MONDAY...THROUGH THE SRN
CNDN PLAINS INTO THE DAKOTAS. THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE CWA BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND LOW TOPPED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTN/EVNG. PRECIP SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA BY
MIDNIGHT. WITH THIS WAVE...LOOKS LIKE N/NW WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY
DURING THE DAY. DID ALSO DROP HIGHS SLIGHTLY WITH HIGHER CLOUD
COVER...HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN
PLAINS AND DOMINATE OUR WX FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE RESULT WILL
BE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY. GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW
A LARGE DESERT SW LOW FOR THE TAIL END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE LOW
SLOWLY MIGRATING NEWD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PCPN INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 012051
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
251 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

UPPER RIDGING REMAINS ACROSS THE PAC NW INTO THE CNDN ROCKIES...WITH
AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SW SETTING UP A REX BLOCKING PATTERN.
1028MB SURFACE HIGH SITS ACROSS THE NRN TO CNTRL PLAINS...WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS HAVE REACHED THE 50S TO
LOW 60S. QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS IN THE 30S. COMPACT UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO
DROP SOUTH ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE MONDAY...THROUGH THE SRN
CNDN PLAINS INTO THE DAKOTAS. THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE CWA BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND LOW TOPPED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTN/EVNG. PRECIP SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA BY
MIDNIGHT. WITH THIS WAVE...LOOKS LIKE N/NW WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY
DURING THE DAY. DID ALSO DROP HIGHS SLIGHTLY WITH HIGHER CLOUD
COVER...HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN
PLAINS AND DOMINATE OUR WX FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE RESULT WILL
BE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY. GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW
A LARGE DESERT SW LOW FOR THE TAIL END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE LOW
SLOWLY MIGRATING NEWD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PCPN INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 012051
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
251 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

UPPER RIDGING REMAINS ACROSS THE PAC NW INTO THE CNDN ROCKIES...WITH
AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SW SETTING UP A REX BLOCKING PATTERN.
1028MB SURFACE HIGH SITS ACROSS THE NRN TO CNTRL PLAINS...WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS HAVE REACHED THE 50S TO
LOW 60S. QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS IN THE 30S. COMPACT UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO
DROP SOUTH ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE MONDAY...THROUGH THE SRN
CNDN PLAINS INTO THE DAKOTAS. THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE CWA BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND LOW TOPPED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTN/EVNG. PRECIP SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA BY
MIDNIGHT. WITH THIS WAVE...LOOKS LIKE N/NW WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY
DURING THE DAY. DID ALSO DROP HIGHS SLIGHTLY WITH HIGHER CLOUD
COVER...HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN
PLAINS AND DOMINATE OUR WX FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE RESULT WILL
BE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY. GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW
A LARGE DESERT SW LOW FOR THE TAIL END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE LOW
SLOWLY MIGRATING NEWD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PCPN INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 012051
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
251 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

UPPER RIDGING REMAINS ACROSS THE PAC NW INTO THE CNDN ROCKIES...WITH
AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SW SETTING UP A REX BLOCKING PATTERN.
1028MB SURFACE HIGH SITS ACROSS THE NRN TO CNTRL PLAINS...WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS HAVE REACHED THE 50S TO
LOW 60S. QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS IN THE 30S. COMPACT UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO
DROP SOUTH ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE MONDAY...THROUGH THE SRN
CNDN PLAINS INTO THE DAKOTAS. THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE CWA BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND LOW TOPPED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTN/EVNG. PRECIP SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA BY
MIDNIGHT. WITH THIS WAVE...LOOKS LIKE N/NW WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY
DURING THE DAY. DID ALSO DROP HIGHS SLIGHTLY WITH HIGHER CLOUD
COVER...HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN
PLAINS AND DOMINATE OUR WX FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE RESULT WILL
BE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY. GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW
A LARGE DESERT SW LOW FOR THE TAIL END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE LOW
SLOWLY MIGRATING NEWD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PCPN INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON




000
FXUS65 KCYS 012024
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
224 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

TRANQUIL WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM. FORECAST CHALLENGE DEALS WITH
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY THAT COULD BRING
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR EASTERN CWFA.

CURRENTLY...1030MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN MONTANA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH TO A 1028MB
SURFACE HIGH NEAR CHEYENNE. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT US
THE SNOW YESTERDAY HAS NOW MOVED INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. STILL
SEEING A COLD NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND OVER OUR CWFA. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE PANHANDLE.

PRETTY QUIET TONIGHT WITH WESTERLY WINDS RETURNING. SHOULD SEE
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY WEATHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS
QUITE COLD WITH TEENS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND LOW TO MID
20S EAST.

GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA...DIGGING SOUTHWEST INTO OUR EASTERN CWFA MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
POPS TO THE FORECAST FOR THE PANHANDLE AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
WYOMING COUNTIES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING. GFS HAS SHOWERS CONTINUING UNTIL ABOUT NOON TIME TUESDAY
BEFORE ENDING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THU...GIVEN LIMITED
MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. 700 HPA TEMPERATURES TO +10 C
SHOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 70S ON THU/FRI. WE MAY EVEN
SEE A FEW 80S IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THE MODELS ARE NOW COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY W/
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF A SIGNIFICANT CLOSED
LOW ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE WESTERN US. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE
FOR A STORMY WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 50 F AND COOLING ALOFT MAY SUPPORT
CAPES BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 J/KG PER THE GFS ALONG WITH INCREASING
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON
FRI AND/OR SAT AFTERNOONS. THE GFS STILL SUGGESTS H7 TEMPS FALLING
TO BETWEEN -2 AND -4 DEG C ON SUNDAY...SO THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL
FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION ON MOTHERS DAY. THIS IS STILL A BIT OF AN
OUTLIER...SO ONLY MADE A SLIGHT NUDGE TOWARD COOLER TEMPS LATER IN
THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THOUGH
WE DO BEGIN TO WARM THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES SHOULD STAY WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS...FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20 PERCENT RANGE EACH
AFTERNOON. WINDS STAY FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE THEY
BEGIN TO INCREASE THURSDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO WESTERN WYOMING.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...GCC




000
FXUS65 KRIW 011920
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
120 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

GENERAL BROAD LW TROF ACROSS THE CONUS WITH A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED
TROF/CLOSED LOWS STIRRING THE POT WITHIN. THE LOW MOST SIGNIFICANT
FOR THE FA IS QUITE BROAD AND LOCATIONS OVR THE SRN GREAT BASIN AND
MOJAVE DESERT REGION. OVR/NEAR WY...UPR RIDGE IS ACTUALLY FOLDING
INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE STATE...DRYING THE MID AND UPR ATMOSPHERE
AND PUTTING THE KABASH ON MOST PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. FROM CNTRL
WY SWD...A FEW LINGER AREAS OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ALL THAT
REMAIN OF THE STORM SYSTEM OF THE PAST FEW DAYS. SFC SHOWS HIGH P
BUILDING INTO THE ERN 2/3RDS OF WY...WITH LOW P OVR THE GREAT
BASIN...AND BRISK ERLY WINDS BLOWING ACROSS THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE.

TODAY WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY THE FOLDING RIDGE AND DRYING ACROSS THE
FA FROM N TO S THROUGH THE DAY...WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING MORNING
SHOWERS GIVING WAY TO A SPURIOUS INSTABILITY SHOWER OR TWO...MAINLY
IN THE BIGHORN...LARAMIE...OR MEDICINE BOW MOUNTAINS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...A WARM UP BEGINS...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO
THE 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TODAY...WITH 30S AND
40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. MONDAY...UPR LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SW GETS
ABSORBED INTO THE FLOW...WHILE AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE
WRN CONUS...FURTHER PUSHING MOISTURE OUT OF THE REGION. IT WILL WARM
INTO THE 50S AND 60S WHILE REMAINING 99 PERCENT DRY MONDAY...EXCEPT
FOR A VERY SLIGHT POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVR THE BIGHORN
OR CASPER MOUNTAINS...OR NEAR THE EXTREME SRN PORTION OF WY WHICH
WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE REMAINING BUT DWINDLING MOISTURE POOL.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

DRYING OCCURS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS A DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AREA MOVES SOUTH FROM ALBERTA ON MONDAY NIGHT.  AS AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WEST...SIGNIFICANT DRYING AND
WARMING OCCURS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 6
TO10DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS.  WHEN THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO
EASTERN WYOMING...SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVES INTO WESTERN WYOMING
WITH SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY OVER THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. THE SPREAD BETWEEN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS BECOMES
QUITE LARGE...BUT WITH A GENERAL LONG WAVE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...THE
MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE AREA WHERE LONG
WAVE TROUGHS BRACKET THE RIDGE. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HIGHS WARM
NICELY INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES IN
THE BIGHORN BASIN.  SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BECOME SCATTERED OVER THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO HEATING. SHOULD
HAVE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE ON THE GROUND TO EVAPORATE AND PROVIDE
NEEDED MOISTURE FOR CONVECTION...AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
GREAT BASIN ON FRIDAY. YET ANOTHER CUT OFF LOW...WITH UPLSOPE FLOW
EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE AREA WITH COOLING
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIFT SUPPORTING A RETURN TO
AREAS OF SNOW AND RAIN MOVING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO COOL SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY AS SHOWERS BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AND EAST TO NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW DEEPENS AND MOISTENS.
SNOW LEVEL SHOULD START OUT AROUND 9000 FEET WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX
DOWN TO 7500 FEET.  SUNDAY SHOULD SEE DECREASING PRECIPITATION WITH
COLD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE DIVERGENT
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH SIGNIFICANTLY
DECREASES THE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE DECREASE IN
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION.../XXZ ISSUANCE/

WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...KJAC/KRKS/KPNA/KBPI AIRPORTS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY EAST TO
NORTHEAST WIND TO CONTINUE NEAR AND WEST OF KRKS INTO THIS
EVENING...DECREASING OVERNIGHT.

EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...KCPR/KCOD/KRIW/KWRL/KLND AIRPORTS

SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACES WITH MVFR CONDITIONS UNTIL
NEAR 03Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

TODAY...LOW FIRE DANGER FOR ALL LOCATIONS CONTINUES WITH HIGH
MINIMUM RH VALUES ONLY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S TO MID 60S (PERCENT)
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. ISOLATED LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE ACROSS WYOMING TODAY.  WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF WYOMING TODAY. MONDAY GREEN UP WILL BEGIN IN
EARNEST UNDER WARMING AND DRYING CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE. MINIMUM RH
VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 20S TO PERHAPS THE UPPER TEENS (PERCENT)
FOR MANY LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND AT ALL
LOCATIONS...FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN LOW.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAUN
LONG TERM...C.BAKER
AVIATION...BRAUN
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN




000
FXUS65 KCYS 011753
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1153 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL EXIT THE AREA TODAY. A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER THIS MORNING BUT BY
THIS AFTERNOON CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE NEAR
ZERO. SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM THE NORTH AND THE WEST THROUGH
THE DAY...SUCH THAT BY THIS EVENING THAT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL SEE SUNSHINE AFTER SEVERAL CLOUDY DAYS.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS ALONG WITH A
WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STILL STRUGGLE TO WARM WITH
HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF MAY. FOR MONDAY
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES OF NORMAL WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MUCH WARMER AND NICER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WED AND THURS. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE OVER WYOMING/COLORADO BY WED WITH
700 MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 6C.  EVEN WARMER TEMPS WILL OCCUR BY
THURS...WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS.  WITH
RIDGING ALOFT AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...NOT EXPECTING MUCH
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON WED AND THURS AFTNS.  THE MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT AT SHOWING A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA ON FRI THAT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD UTAH ON SAT.
WILL SEE HOW QUICKLY THE CLOSED LOW PUSHES EASTWARD...HOWEVER IT
APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE SATURDAY. THERE
COULD EVEN BE SOME STRONG STORMS ON THAT AFTN/EVENING AS FLOW
ALOFT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE LIGHT AT 5 TO 10
KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

DRIER AND WARMER THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY THIS WEEK. CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS UNLIKELY THOUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...SML




000
FXUS65 KRIW 011700
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1100 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

FINALLY SOME IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AND A RETURN OF
SOME SUNSHINE FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED DRYING OUT. THERE ARE STILL A FEW
SHOWERS ON THE RADAR THIS MORNING BUT THESE SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THEN FEATURE...SHOCKING...INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH AS
HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM MONTANA. TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT WARMER THAN RECENT DAYS AND WITH THE
SUNSHINE IT WILL FEEL MUCH BETTER THAN RECENT DAYS. THE MAIN CONCERN
THIS MORNING WILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG WHERE CLEARING MAY TAKE PLACE.
CONTINUITY HAD THAT COVERED FAIRLY WELL SO WE LEFT IT. IN
ADDITION...THERE WILL STILL BE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN
WYOMING. HOWEVER...NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY HIGH WIND
HIGHLIGHTS. TONIGHT LOOKS MAINLY DRY AND COOL. THERE COULD BE SOME
FOG IN PLACES...SO WE ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR LATE TONIGHT IN AREAS THAT
HAD SUBSTANTIAL RAIN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH NARROW TEMPERATURE-
DEW POINT SPREADS EXPECTED.

THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR MONDAY HOWEVER AS A FLY HAS
ENTERED THE SOUP FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. THAT FLY IS SHORTWAVE THAT
WILL MOVE RAPIDLY DOWN FROM CANADA AND INTO THE STATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NAM RETROGRADES THE WAVE INTO WYOMING AND
BRINGS SOME CONVECTION TO PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THE GFS IS WELL
EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE WAVE. THE EUROPEAN IS IN THE MIDDLE BUT
STILL KEEPS IT EAST OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...AS A COMPROMISE WE
INTRODUCED SOME ISOLATED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST OF THE
DIVIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE UPWARD
SWING...FINALLY APPROACHING SEASONAL NORMALS.

THERE IS THE SAME DILEMMA FOR TUESDAY. THE NAM HAS CONVECTION OVER
SOUTHERN WYOMING WITH THE LOW STALLED OVER THE AREA. MEANWHILE...THE
GFS AND EUROPEAN ARE DRY WITH A RIDGE FIRMLY IN CONTROL. AGAIN...WE
ADDED SOME SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY
MOST OF THE TIME. THERE WILL FINALLY BE SOME SPRING LIKE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST TIME IN OVER A WEEK. MANY LOWER
ELEVATIONS SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING DRY AND MILD WEATHER ACROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY.  ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PUSH INTO THE WEST THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM...WHILE CENTRAL WYOMING WILL SEE UNSEASONABLY MILD AND MAINLY
DRY WEATHER.  THE PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT
BASIN FRIDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH A COOLING
TREND.

DISCUSSION...GFS SHOWS BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY THAN ECMWF WITH
THE GFS DEVELOPING A REX BLOCK OVER THE ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN NEXT
WEEKEND.  THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN WIDELY VARYING INTERACTIONS WITH SW
LOW AND NORTHERN STREAM OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS.  GFS/GEFS MEAN WAS
USED FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

OMEGA BLOCK BEGINS THIS PERIOD WITH UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES
FLANKED BY LOWS OFF THE WEST COAST AND ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AS
WESTERN UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE LAS VEGAS AREA BY 0Z
SATURDAY.  GFS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER OVER LAST FEW RUNS WITH
H7 TEMPS NEAR 10C ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING ON THURSDAY...SO FORECAST
CONTINUES TO TEND TEMPERATURES WARMER WITH SOME HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S ACROSS THE LOWER CENTRAL BASINS ON THURSDAY.  MOISTURE AND
SLIGHT INSTABILITY IN SOUTHERLY DIFLUENT FLOW WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE THURSDAY.
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING BETTER MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR INTO CENTRAL AREAS ON FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
EVENT IS SETTING UP FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE
GREAT BASIN WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW EAST OF THE DIVIDE.  AT THIS
POINT...SNOW LEVELS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN >=9KFT SO IMPACTS ON
TRAVEL SHOULD BE MINIMAL.  HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ON
MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK MAY ELEVATE FLOODING CONCERNS.


&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...KJAC/KRKS/KPNA/KBPI AIRPORTS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY EAST TO
NORTHEAST WIND TO CONTINUE NEAR AND WEST OF KRKS INTO THIS EVENING.

EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...KCPR/KCOD/KRIW/KWRL/KLND AIRPORTS

LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN CENTRAL WY WILL CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE THROUGH 20Z. SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACES WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS UNTIL 02Z MONDAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

FIRE DANGER SHOULD REMAIN LOW TODAY. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD END THIS
MORNING WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY. A GUSTY
EASTERLY WIND WILL BLOW FROM THE RATTLESNAKE RANGE ACROSS SOUTHERN
WYOMING. HOWEVER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS. EXPECT WARMING AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH AROUND
WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM MAY FIRE. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT WINDS FROM
MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...BRAUN
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS




000
FXUS65 KRIW 011700
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1100 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

FINALLY SOME IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AND A RETURN OF
SOME SUNSHINE FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED DRYING OUT. THERE ARE STILL A FEW
SHOWERS ON THE RADAR THIS MORNING BUT THESE SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THEN FEATURE...SHOCKING...INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH AS
HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM MONTANA. TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT WARMER THAN RECENT DAYS AND WITH THE
SUNSHINE IT WILL FEEL MUCH BETTER THAN RECENT DAYS. THE MAIN CONCERN
THIS MORNING WILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG WHERE CLEARING MAY TAKE PLACE.
CONTINUITY HAD THAT COVERED FAIRLY WELL SO WE LEFT IT. IN
ADDITION...THERE WILL STILL BE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN
WYOMING. HOWEVER...NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY HIGH WIND
HIGHLIGHTS. TONIGHT LOOKS MAINLY DRY AND COOL. THERE COULD BE SOME
FOG IN PLACES...SO WE ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR LATE TONIGHT IN AREAS THAT
HAD SUBSTANTIAL RAIN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH NARROW TEMPERATURE-
DEW POINT SPREADS EXPECTED.

THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR MONDAY HOWEVER AS A FLY HAS
ENTERED THE SOUP FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. THAT FLY IS SHORTWAVE THAT
WILL MOVE RAPIDLY DOWN FROM CANADA AND INTO THE STATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NAM RETROGRADES THE WAVE INTO WYOMING AND
BRINGS SOME CONVECTION TO PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THE GFS IS WELL
EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE WAVE. THE EUROPEAN IS IN THE MIDDLE BUT
STILL KEEPS IT EAST OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...AS A COMPROMISE WE
INTRODUCED SOME ISOLATED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST OF THE
DIVIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE UPWARD
SWING...FINALLY APPROACHING SEASONAL NORMALS.

THERE IS THE SAME DILEMMA FOR TUESDAY. THE NAM HAS CONVECTION OVER
SOUTHERN WYOMING WITH THE LOW STALLED OVER THE AREA. MEANWHILE...THE
GFS AND EUROPEAN ARE DRY WITH A RIDGE FIRMLY IN CONTROL. AGAIN...WE
ADDED SOME SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY
MOST OF THE TIME. THERE WILL FINALLY BE SOME SPRING LIKE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST TIME IN OVER A WEEK. MANY LOWER
ELEVATIONS SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING DRY AND MILD WEATHER ACROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY.  ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PUSH INTO THE WEST THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM...WHILE CENTRAL WYOMING WILL SEE UNSEASONABLY MILD AND MAINLY
DRY WEATHER.  THE PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT
BASIN FRIDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH A COOLING
TREND.

DISCUSSION...GFS SHOWS BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY THAN ECMWF WITH
THE GFS DEVELOPING A REX BLOCK OVER THE ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN NEXT
WEEKEND.  THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN WIDELY VARYING INTERACTIONS WITH SW
LOW AND NORTHERN STREAM OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS.  GFS/GEFS MEAN WAS
USED FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

OMEGA BLOCK BEGINS THIS PERIOD WITH UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES
FLANKED BY LOWS OFF THE WEST COAST AND ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AS
WESTERN UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE LAS VEGAS AREA BY 0Z
SATURDAY.  GFS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER OVER LAST FEW RUNS WITH
H7 TEMPS NEAR 10C ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING ON THURSDAY...SO FORECAST
CONTINUES TO TEND TEMPERATURES WARMER WITH SOME HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S ACROSS THE LOWER CENTRAL BASINS ON THURSDAY.  MOISTURE AND
SLIGHT INSTABILITY IN SOUTHERLY DIFLUENT FLOW WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE THURSDAY.
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING BETTER MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR INTO CENTRAL AREAS ON FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
EVENT IS SETTING UP FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE
GREAT BASIN WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW EAST OF THE DIVIDE.  AT THIS
POINT...SNOW LEVELS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN >=9KFT SO IMPACTS ON
TRAVEL SHOULD BE MINIMAL.  HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ON
MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK MAY ELEVATE FLOODING CONCERNS.


&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...KJAC/KRKS/KPNA/KBPI AIRPORTS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY EAST TO
NORTHEAST WIND TO CONTINUE NEAR AND WEST OF KRKS INTO THIS EVENING.

EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...KCPR/KCOD/KRIW/KWRL/KLND AIRPORTS

LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN CENTRAL WY WILL CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE THROUGH 20Z. SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACES WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS UNTIL 02Z MONDAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

FIRE DANGER SHOULD REMAIN LOW TODAY. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD END THIS
MORNING WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY. A GUSTY
EASTERLY WIND WILL BLOW FROM THE RATTLESNAKE RANGE ACROSS SOUTHERN
WYOMING. HOWEVER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS. EXPECT WARMING AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH AROUND
WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM MAY FIRE. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT WINDS FROM
MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...BRAUN
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS




000
FXUS63 KUNR 011651
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1051 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS LOW ACROSS MISSOURI...WITH 1027MB HIGH
ACROSS MONTANA. REGIONAL RADAR HAS SOME LIGHT RAIN STILL FALLING
ALONG THE NEBRASKA BORDER IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH
RAIN SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD. HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

ON MONDAY...SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. MODELS
HAVE BEEN COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS SHORTWAVE OVER
THE PAST TWO DAY. WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY...A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND OVER THE BLACK HILLS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

WEATHER WILL BE WARM AND MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND HIGHS IN
THE 70S. WEAK INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
HILLS ON WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY...OMEGA-BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS AS
A LARGE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER SOUTHERN CA. GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW
LOW SHIFTING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND UPPER ENERGY ROTATING
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY...BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIP. MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW THIS LOW OVERTAKING THE RIDGE...WITH
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1050 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...JOHNSON




000
FXUS65 KCYS 011141
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
541 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL EXIT THE AREA TODAY. A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER THIS MORNING BUT BY
THIS AFTERNOON CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE NEAR
ZERO. SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM THE NORTH AND THE WEST THROUGH
THE DAY...SUCH THAT BY THIS EVENING THAT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL SEE SUNSHINE AFTER SEVERAL CLOUDY DAYS.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS ALONG WITH A
WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STILL STRUGGLE TO WARM WITH
HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF MAY. FOR MONDAY
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES OF NORMAL WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MUCH WARMER AND NICER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WED AND THURS. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE OVER WYOMING/COLORADO BY WED WITH
700 MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 6C.  EVEN WARMER TEMPS WILL OCCUR BY
THURS...WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS.  WITH
RIDGING ALOFT AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...NOT EXPECTING MUCH
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON WED AND THURS AFTNS.  THE MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT AT SHOWING A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA ON FRI THAT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD UTAH ON SAT.
WILL SEE HOW QUICKLY THE CLOSED LOW PUSHES EASTWARD...HOWEVER IT
APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE SATURDAY. THERE
COULD EVEN BE SOME STRONG STORMS ON THAT AFTN/EVENING AS FLOW
ALOFT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 536 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED IN AREAS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER
THROUGH 16-18Z. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO BREAK UP BY
THE AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25 KTS THROUGH MID
MORNING AT CYS AND SNY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

DRIER AND WARMER THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY THIS WEEK. CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS UNLIKELY THOUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...SML




000
FXUS65 KCYS 011141
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
541 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL EXIT THE AREA TODAY. A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER THIS MORNING BUT BY
THIS AFTERNOON CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE NEAR
ZERO. SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM THE NORTH AND THE WEST THROUGH
THE DAY...SUCH THAT BY THIS EVENING THAT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL SEE SUNSHINE AFTER SEVERAL CLOUDY DAYS.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS ALONG WITH A
WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STILL STRUGGLE TO WARM WITH
HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF MAY. FOR MONDAY
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES OF NORMAL WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MUCH WARMER AND NICER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WED AND THURS. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE OVER WYOMING/COLORADO BY WED WITH
700 MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 6C.  EVEN WARMER TEMPS WILL OCCUR BY
THURS...WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS.  WITH
RIDGING ALOFT AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...NOT EXPECTING MUCH
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON WED AND THURS AFTNS.  THE MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT AT SHOWING A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA ON FRI THAT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD UTAH ON SAT.
WILL SEE HOW QUICKLY THE CLOSED LOW PUSHES EASTWARD...HOWEVER IT
APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE SATURDAY. THERE
COULD EVEN BE SOME STRONG STORMS ON THAT AFTN/EVENING AS FLOW
ALOFT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 536 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED IN AREAS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER
THROUGH 16-18Z. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO BREAK UP BY
THE AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25 KTS THROUGH MID
MORNING AT CYS AND SNY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

DRIER AND WARMER THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY THIS WEEK. CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS UNLIKELY THOUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...SML




000
FXUS63 KUNR 011106
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
506 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS LOW ACROSS MISSOURI...WITH 1027MB HIGH
ACROSS MONTANA. REGIONAL RADAR HAS SOME LIGHT RAIN STILL FALLING
ALONG THE NEBRASKA BORDER IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH
RAIN SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD. HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

ON MONDAY...SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. MODELS
HAVE BEEN COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS SHORTWAVE OVER
THE PAST TWO DAY. WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY...A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND OVER THE BLACK HILLS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

WEATHER WILL BE WARM AND MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND HIGHS IN
THE 70S. WEAK INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
HILLS ON WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY...OMEGA-BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS AS
A LARGE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER SOUTHERN CA. GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW
LOW SHIFTING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND UPPER ENERGY ROTATING
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY...BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIP. MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW THIS LOW OVERTAKING THE RIDGE...WITH
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 506 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE




000
FXUS63 KUNR 011106
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
506 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS LOW ACROSS MISSOURI...WITH 1027MB HIGH
ACROSS MONTANA. REGIONAL RADAR HAS SOME LIGHT RAIN STILL FALLING
ALONG THE NEBRASKA BORDER IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH
RAIN SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD. HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

ON MONDAY...SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. MODELS
HAVE BEEN COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS SHORTWAVE OVER
THE PAST TWO DAY. WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY...A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND OVER THE BLACK HILLS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

WEATHER WILL BE WARM AND MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND HIGHS IN
THE 70S. WEAK INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
HILLS ON WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY...OMEGA-BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS AS
A LARGE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER SOUTHERN CA. GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW
LOW SHIFTING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND UPPER ENERGY ROTATING
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY...BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIP. MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW THIS LOW OVERTAKING THE RIDGE...WITH
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 506 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE




000
FXUS65 KCYS 011006
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
406 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL EXIT THE AREA TODAY. A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER THIS MORNING BUT BY
THIS AFTERNOON CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE NEAR
ZERO. SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM THE NORTH AND THE WEST THROUGH
THE DAY...SUCH THAT BY THIS EVENING THAT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL SEE SUNSHINE AFTER SEVERAL CLOUDY DAYS.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS ALONG WITH A
WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STILL STRUGGLE TO WARM WITH
HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF MAY. FOR MONDAY
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES OF NORMAL WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MUCH WARMER AND NICER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WED AND THURS. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE OVER WYOMING/COLORADO BY WED WITH
700 MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 6C.  EVEN WARMER TEMPS WILL OCCUR BY
THURS...WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS.  WITH
RIDGING ALOFT AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...NOT EXPECTING MUCH
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON WED AND THURS AFTNS.  THE MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT AT SHOWING A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA ON FRI THAT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD UTAH ON SAT.  IT
APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE SATURDAY.  THERE
COULD EVEN BE SOME STRONG STORMS ON THAT AFTN/EVENING AS FLOW ALOFT
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
SUNRISE FOR AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...HOWEVER VIS
REDUCTIONS FROM THE SNOW WILL BE MINIMAL. IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH MID MORNING SUNDAY. THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO BREAK UP BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

DRIER AND WARMER THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY THIS WET. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS UNLIKELY THOUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...SML




000
FXUS65 KRIW 010840
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
240 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

FINALLY SOME IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AND A RETURN OF
SOME SUNSHINE FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED DRYING OUT. THERE ARE STILL A FEW
SHOWERS ON THE RADAR THIS MORNING BUT THESE SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THEN FEATURE...SHOCKING...INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH AS
HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM MONTANA. TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT WARMER THAN RECENT DAYS AND WITH THE
SUNSHINE IT WILL FEEL MUCH BETTER THAN RECENT DAYS. THE MAIN CONCERN
THIS MORNING WILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG WHERE CLEARING MAY TAKE PLACE.
CONTINUITY HAD THAT COVERED FAIRLY WELL SO WE LEFT IT. IN
ADDITION...THERE WILL STILL BE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN
WYOMING. HOWEVER...NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY HIGH WIND
HIGHLIGHTS. TONIGHT LOOKS MAINLY DRY AND COOL. THERE COULD BE SOME
FOG IN PLACES...SO WE ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR LATE TONIGHT IN AREAS THAT
HAD SUBSTANTIAL RAIN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH NARROW TEMPERATURE-
DEW POINT SPREADS EXPECTED.

THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR MONDAY HOWEVER AS A FLY HAS
ENTERED THE SOUP FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. THAT FLY IS SHORTWAVE THAT
WILL MOVE RAPIDLY DOWN FROM CANADA AND INTO THE STATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NAM RETROGRADES THE WAVE INTO WYOMING AND
BRINGS SOME CONVECTION TO PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THE GFS IS WELL
EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE WAVE. THE EUROPEAN IS IN THE MIDDLE BUT
STILL KEEPS IT EAST OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...AS A COMPROMISE WE
INTRODUCED SOME ISOLATED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST OF THE
DIVIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE UPWARD
SWING...FINALLY APPROACHING SEASONAL NORMALS.

THERE IS THE SAME DILEMMA FOR TUESDAY. THE NAM HAS CONVECTION OVER
SOUTHERN WYOMING WITH THE LOW STALLED OVER THE AREA. MEANWHILE...THE
GFS AND EUROPEAN ARE DRY WITH A RIDGE FIRMLY IN CONTROL. AGAIN...WE
ADDED SOME SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY
MOST OF THE TIME. THERE WILL FINALLY BE SOME SPRING LIKE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST TIME IN OVER A WEEK. MANY LOWER
ELEVATIONS SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING DRY AND MILD WEATHER ACROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY.  ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PUSH INTO THE WEST THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM...WHILE CENTRAL WYOMING WILL SEE UNSEASONABLY MILD AND MAINLY
DRY WEATHER.  THE PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT
BASIN FRIDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH A COOLING
TREND.

DISCUSSION...GFS SHOWS BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY THAN ECMWF WITH
THE GFS DEVELOPING A REX BLOCK OVER THE ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN NEXT
WEEKEND.  THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN WIDELY VARYING INTERACTIONS WITH SW
LOW AND NORTHERN STREAM OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS.  GFS/GEFS MEAN WAS
USED FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

OMEGA BLOCK BEGINS THIS PERIOD WITH UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES
FLANKED BY LOWS OFF THE WEST COAST AND ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AS
WESTERN UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE LAS VEGAS AREA BY 0Z
SATURDAY.  GFS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER OVER LAST FEW RUNS WITH
H7 TEMPS NEAR 10C ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING ON THURSDAY...SO FORECAST
CONTINUES TO TEND TEMPERATURES WARMER WITH SOME HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S ACROSS THE LOWER CENTRAL BASINS ON THURSDAY.  MOISTURE AND
SLIGHT INSTABILITY IN SOUTHERLY DIFLUENT FLOW WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE THURSDAY.
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING BETTER MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR INTO CENTRAL AREAS ON FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
EVENT IS SETTING UP FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE
GREAT BASIN WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW EAST OF THE DIVIDE.  AT THIS
POINT...SNOW LEVELS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN >=9KFT SO IMPACTS ON
TRAVEL SHOULD BE MINIMAL.  HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ON
MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK MAY ELEVATE FLOODING CONCERNS.


&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...KJAC/KRKS/KPNA/KBPI AIRPORTS

SOME LOW CLOUDS OR FOG WILL FORM IN PLACES WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
UNTIL 17Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...KCPR/KCOD/KRIW/KWRL/KLND AIRPORTS

LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN CENTRAL WY WILL END BY 15Z. SOME
LOW CLOUDS OR FOG WILL FORM IN PLACES WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS UNTIL
17Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

FIRE DANGER SHOULD REMAIN LOW TODAY. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD END THIS
MORNING WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY. A GUSTY
EASTERLY WIND WILL BLOW FROM THE RATTLESNAKE RANGE ACROSS SOUTHERN
WYOMING. HOWEVER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS. EXPECT WARMING AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH AROUND
WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM MAY FIRE. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT WINDS FROM
MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS




000
FXUS65 KRIW 010840
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
240 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

FINALLY SOME IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AND A RETURN OF
SOME SUNSHINE FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED DRYING OUT. THERE ARE STILL A FEW
SHOWERS ON THE RADAR THIS MORNING BUT THESE SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THEN FEATURE...SHOCKING...INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH AS
HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM MONTANA. TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT WARMER THAN RECENT DAYS AND WITH THE
SUNSHINE IT WILL FEEL MUCH BETTER THAN RECENT DAYS. THE MAIN CONCERN
THIS MORNING WILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG WHERE CLEARING MAY TAKE PLACE.
CONTINUITY HAD THAT COVERED FAIRLY WELL SO WE LEFT IT. IN
ADDITION...THERE WILL STILL BE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN
WYOMING. HOWEVER...NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY HIGH WIND
HIGHLIGHTS. TONIGHT LOOKS MAINLY DRY AND COOL. THERE COULD BE SOME
FOG IN PLACES...SO WE ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR LATE TONIGHT IN AREAS THAT
HAD SUBSTANTIAL RAIN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH NARROW TEMPERATURE-
DEW POINT SPREADS EXPECTED.

THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR MONDAY HOWEVER AS A FLY HAS
ENTERED THE SOUP FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. THAT FLY IS SHORTWAVE THAT
WILL MOVE RAPIDLY DOWN FROM CANADA AND INTO THE STATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NAM RETROGRADES THE WAVE INTO WYOMING AND
BRINGS SOME CONVECTION TO PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THE GFS IS WELL
EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE WAVE. THE EUROPEAN IS IN THE MIDDLE BUT
STILL KEEPS IT EAST OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...AS A COMPROMISE WE
INTRODUCED SOME ISOLATED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST OF THE
DIVIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE UPWARD
SWING...FINALLY APPROACHING SEASONAL NORMALS.

THERE IS THE SAME DILEMMA FOR TUESDAY. THE NAM HAS CONVECTION OVER
SOUTHERN WYOMING WITH THE LOW STALLED OVER THE AREA. MEANWHILE...THE
GFS AND EUROPEAN ARE DRY WITH A RIDGE FIRMLY IN CONTROL. AGAIN...WE
ADDED SOME SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY
MOST OF THE TIME. THERE WILL FINALLY BE SOME SPRING LIKE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST TIME IN OVER A WEEK. MANY LOWER
ELEVATIONS SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING DRY AND MILD WEATHER ACROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY.  ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PUSH INTO THE WEST THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM...WHILE CENTRAL WYOMING WILL SEE UNSEASONABLY MILD AND MAINLY
DRY WEATHER.  THE PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT
BASIN FRIDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH A COOLING
TREND.

DISCUSSION...GFS SHOWS BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY THAN ECMWF WITH
THE GFS DEVELOPING A REX BLOCK OVER THE ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN NEXT
WEEKEND.  THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN WIDELY VARYING INTERACTIONS WITH SW
LOW AND NORTHERN STREAM OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS.  GFS/GEFS MEAN WAS
USED FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

OMEGA BLOCK BEGINS THIS PERIOD WITH UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES
FLANKED BY LOWS OFF THE WEST COAST AND ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AS
WESTERN UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE LAS VEGAS AREA BY 0Z
SATURDAY.  GFS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER OVER LAST FEW RUNS WITH
H7 TEMPS NEAR 10C ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING ON THURSDAY...SO FORECAST
CONTINUES TO TEND TEMPERATURES WARMER WITH SOME HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S ACROSS THE LOWER CENTRAL BASINS ON THURSDAY.  MOISTURE AND
SLIGHT INSTABILITY IN SOUTHERLY DIFLUENT FLOW WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE THURSDAY.
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING BETTER MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR INTO CENTRAL AREAS ON FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
EVENT IS SETTING UP FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE
GREAT BASIN WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW EAST OF THE DIVIDE.  AT THIS
POINT...SNOW LEVELS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN >=9KFT SO IMPACTS ON
TRAVEL SHOULD BE MINIMAL.  HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ON
MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK MAY ELEVATE FLOODING CONCERNS.


&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...KJAC/KRKS/KPNA/KBPI AIRPORTS

SOME LOW CLOUDS OR FOG WILL FORM IN PLACES WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
UNTIL 17Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...KCPR/KCOD/KRIW/KWRL/KLND AIRPORTS

LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN CENTRAL WY WILL END BY 15Z. SOME
LOW CLOUDS OR FOG WILL FORM IN PLACES WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS UNTIL
17Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

FIRE DANGER SHOULD REMAIN LOW TODAY. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD END THIS
MORNING WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY. A GUSTY
EASTERLY WIND WILL BLOW FROM THE RATTLESNAKE RANGE ACROSS SOUTHERN
WYOMING. HOWEVER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS. EXPECT WARMING AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH AROUND
WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM MAY FIRE. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT WINDS FROM
MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS




000
FXUS63 KUNR 010823
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
223 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS LOW ACROSS MISSOURI...WITH 1027MB HIGH
ACROSS MONTANA. REGIONAL RADAR HAS SOME LIGHT RAIN STILL FALLING
ALONG THE NEBRASKA BORDER IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH
RAIN SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD. HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

ON MONDAY...SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. MODELS
HAVE BEEN COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS SHORTWAVE OVER
THE PAST TWO DAY. WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY...A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND OVER THE BLACK HILLS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

WEATHER WILL BE WARM AND MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND HIGHS IN
THE 70S. WEAK INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
HILLS ON WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY...OMEGA-BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS AS
A LARGE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER SOUTHERN CA. GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW
LOW SHIFTING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND UPPER ENERGY ROTATING
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY...BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIP. MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW THIS LOW OVERTAKING THE RIDGE...WITH
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

SCT MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL SD WILL TREND VFR
AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. VFR
CONDS EXPECTED ALL PLACES THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE




000
FXUS65 KCYS 010545
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1145 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 704 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA SHOWS THE LAST BAND
OF MODERATE SNOW/RAIN PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND
INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST WYOMING...WITH SNOW CHANGING BACK TO RAIN
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. WILL LIKELY CANCEL
THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS THIS LAST BAND
DISSIPATES AS IT MOVES SOUTHWEST. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE LESS THAN ONE INCH TONIGHT...BUT THE SNOW WILL BE LIGHT
ENOUGH TO NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON AREA ROADWAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH ENDING TIMES FOR HEADLINES AND SNOW
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER
THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF NORTH PLATTE. MOSAIC
RADAR SHOWING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO SCOTTSBLUFF AND EVENTUALLY HERE TO
CHEYENNE. NOT GETTING A WHOLE LOT OF ACCUMULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AS TEMPERATURES FROM AREA METARS ARE ABOVE FREEZING. INTERESTING
NOTE...CHADRON NEVER DID TURN OVER TO SNOW THROUGH THIS WHOLE
EVENT...WHILE IT SNOWED ALL DAY AT ALLIANCE. THERE IS AN ELEVATION
DIFFERENCE OF 600 FEET BETWEEN THESE TWO LOCATIONS. LATEST WYDOT
ROAD TEMPERATURES STILL WELL ABOVE FREEZING THIS
AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM AROUND 59 AT ELK MOUNTAIN ON I-80 TO 40
UP ON THE SUMMIT.

DECIDED TO CANCEL THE WINTER HEADLINES FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING WITH
THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE
TROWAL FEATURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. DID KEEP THE
PANHANDLE IN CURRENT HEADLINES AND WILL LET THE EVENING SHIFT TAKE
ANOTHER LOOK AT THINGS WHEN WE APPROACH SUNSET TO SEE IF SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS RETURN.

NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW TO CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY AS WE STAY IN
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA. KEPT INHERITED
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE
LARAMIE RANGE. ALL MODELS SHOWING VERY LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY...SO THE LOW POP FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY GOOD.

WE DRY OUT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS WESTERLY WINDS RETURN IN
THE MID LEVELS. 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AROUND FREEZING
MONDAY...SO WE SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S
AND LOW 50S BY THEN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THU...GIVEN LIMITED
MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. H7 TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 6 AND
9 DEG C WILL BE COMMON BY MIDWEEK...LIKELY SUPPORTING DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER
THURSDAY WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT...AND POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER SYSTEM. THE ECMWF KEEPS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING INTACT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...WHILE THE GFS IS ABOUT 12-24 HOURS EARLIER WITH
THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE. REGARDLESS...CONSENSUS IS FOR A STORMY
WEATHER PATTERN TO RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A VIGOROUS...CLOSED
UPPER LOW ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS. THE GFS SUGGESTS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE HIGH PLAINS
ON FRI OR SAT AFTERNOON WITH CAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG AND DECENT 0-
6 KM BULK SHEAR APPROACHING 30 KTS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AS
EARLY AS SUN MORNING AS THERMAL PROFILES BEGIN TO COOL...BUT IT IS
MUCH TOO EARLY TO START TALKING ABOUT POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS. YET
AGAIN THOUGH...FOR THE THIRD YEAR IN A ROW...WE COULD VERY WELL BE
LOOKING AT A WINTRY MOTHERS DAY. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
SUNRISE FOR AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...HOWEVER VIS
REDUCTIONS FROM THE SNOW WILL BE MINIMAL. IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH MID MORNING SUNDAY. THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO BREAK UP BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AS THE AREA HAS SEEN WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS AND
ACCUMULATING SNOW. SNOW WILL COME TO AN END SUNDAY WITH A DRIER
PATTERN MOVING INTO THE AREA. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH SLOWLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK. STILL NO FIRE CONCERNS AS
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20
TO LOW 30 PERCENT RANGE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TJT
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...GCC




000
FXUS63 KUNR 010516
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1116 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

VIS/WV IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG STACKED LOW SLOWLY SLIDING EASTWARD
ACROSS NEBRASKA. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS EXTENSIVE WRAPAROUND
PRECIP AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF SD INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE AND
SE WY. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED MAINLY ACROSS THE
ERN BLKHLS INTO THE SURROUNDING FOOTHILLS. PRECIP ACROSS SW/SCNTRL
SD HAS STAYED AS RAIN....AS THE RAIN/SNOW LINE HAS NOW DRIFTED
SOUTHWARD INTO CNTRL NEB NEAR KLBF. LOW PRES WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO
ERN NEB TO THE IA/MO BORDER TONIGHT WITH PRECIP MOVING OUT OF THE
CWA BY LATE THIS EVNG OR THE OVNGHT HOURS. 1030MB SURFACE HIGH WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH WITH SKIES CLEAR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUN
MRNG. A QUIET DAY EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SKIES CONTINUING TO CLEAR
THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS WILL REACH THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. WINDS WILL
BE N/NE AT GENERALLY 10 KT. TEMPS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 30S SUN
NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

BOTH THE ECMWF/NAM SUGGEST A WAVE DROPPING SWD FROM CANADA ON
MONDAY ALONG WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR PCPN...BUT THE MAJORITY OF
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS DRY. WILL SIDE WITH THE DRY SOLUTION
FOR NOW WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. THE RIDGE
SHOULD PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE WEEK PROVIDING DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS. GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW A LARGE DESERT SW LOW FOR
THE TAIL END OF THE WEEK...WITH UPPER ENERGY ROTATING NEWD INTO
THE NRN PLAINS BY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF
PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1114 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

SCT MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE SE 1/4 WILL TREND VFR TONIGHT AS DRIER
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. VFR CONDS
EXPECTED ALL PLACES THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC




000
FXUS65 KRIW 010502
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1102 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY (ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT)

BROAD LOW WITH A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED CLOSED LOWS ACROSS THE WRN
2/3RDS OF THE CONUS. DEEPER CLOSED SYSTEM NOW CENTERED ACROSS THE
CNTRL PLAINS WITH THE SFC PORTION OF THE LOW NOW OVR MO. LONG
TRAJECTORY FEED OF MOISTURE FEEDS UP ACROSS THE MS VALLEY...THEN WWD
ACROSS SD/NE...TAILING OFF INTO ERN AND SRN WY/NRN CO. MOST PRECIP
WITHIN THE FA IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVR CNTRL/SRN WY...FALLING OFF
QUICKLY TO THE NORTH.

TODAY THRU THIS EVENING...THE UPR LOW STALLS OUT...ONLY MAKING IT
AS FAR E AS THE MO VALLEY BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH THE SFC PORTION
OF THE SYSTEM TRACKING TO IL. GENERALLY...THIS SLOW PROGRESSION EWD
WILL ALSO SLOWLY TAKE THE MOISTURE WITH IT...WITH THE MORE
STRATIFORM PRECIP E OF THE DIVIDE FALLING OFF IN PARALLEL. COLD AIR
ALOFT W OF THE DIVIDE...HOWEVER...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME -SHRA/ISO -
TSRA THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WITH THE WRN/SRN MOUNTAINS
REAPING THE BENEFITS FROM THIS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRECIP.

HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE ADVISORIES FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT ZONE 15
(ERN WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS)...AS THE BETTER PRECIP/SNOW CAME THROUGH
MID MORNING...BEFORE MIXING WITH OR TURNING TO ALL RAIN BELOW 5500
FEET BY LATE MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...QPF TRENDS ARE FAVORING THE THE
TERRAIN FORCED AREAS WITH A NE ASPECT. ALSO ACCUMULATING SNOW SEEMS
TO BE MOSTLY RELEGATED TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000 TO 6200 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON. SO...EVEN AS SNOW ELEVATIONS FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING...SO WILL THE PRECIP WITH MUCH LESS CHANCE TO
ACCUMULATE. OTHERWISE...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL GENERALLY
LIE BETWEEN 3 AND 9 INCHES ACROSS THE ERN WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS...2
TO 7 INCHES OVER/CLOSE TO CASPER MOUNTAIN...2 TO 6 INCHES IN THE SRN
ABSAROKAS...AND PERHAPS AN INCH TO 2 INCHES OVR PORTIONS OF NATRONA
AND FREMONT COUNTIES.

SUNDAY WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY A FOLDING RIDGE AND DRYING ACROSS THE
FA FROM N TO S THROUGH THE DAY...WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING MORNING
SHOWERS GIVING WAY TO A SPURIOUS SHOWER OR TWO...MAINLY IN THE
BIGHORN...LARAMIE...OR MEDICINE BOW MOUNTAINS. WARM UP
BEGINS...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH 30S AND 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

MOISTURE AND NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL TAPER OFF ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA SPLITS WITH THE NORTHEASTERN
PART OF THE LOW EXITING TO THE EAST WHILE A LARGE CLOSED LOW
CIRCULATION REFORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND DESERT
SOUTHWEST WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. DRYING OCCURS FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH AS A DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES SOUTH FROM ALBERTA
ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE WEAKENING OF THE SOUTHWEST LOW MAY
BE TOO FAST AND THE MODELS START TO DIFFER WITH THE DEMISE OF THE
LOW AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WEST. THIS
LEADS TO SIGNIFICANT DRYING AND WARMING TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
WHEN THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO EASTERN WYOMING...SOUTH SOUTHWEST
FLOW MOVES INTO WESTERN WYOMING WITH SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. THE SPREAD
BETWEEN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS BECOMES QUITE LARGE...BUT WITH A GENERAL
LONG WAVE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE TO THE WEST
AND EAST OF THE AREA WHERE LONG WAVE TROUGHS BRACKET THE RIDGE.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HIGHS WARM NICELY INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S
WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES IN THE BIGHORN BASIN.  SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO BECOME SCATTERED OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO HEATING.  SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE ON THE GROUND TO EVAPORATE AND PROVIDE NEEDED MOISTURE FOR
CONVECTION. AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
FRIDAY AND FORMS YET ANOTHER CUT OFF LOW...UPLSOPE EAST TO NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE AREA WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED
MOISTURE AND LIFT SUPPORTING A RETURN TO AREAS OF SNOW AND RAIN
MOVING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO COOL
SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY AS SHOWERS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND
EAST TO NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW DEEPENS AND MOISTENS.  SNOW LEVEL
SHOULD START OUT AROUND 9000 FEET WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX DOWN TO 7500
FEET.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...KJAC/KRKS/KPNA/KBPI AIRPORTS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL END BY 12Z. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS OR FOG WILL FORM IN
PLACES OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS UNTIL 17Z.

EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...KCPR/KCOD/KRIW/KWRL/KLND AIRPORTS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME LOW CLOUDS OR
FOG WILL FORM IN PLACES OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS UNTIL 17Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

TODAY...LOW FIRE DANGER FOR ALL LOCATIONS CONTINUES WITH HIGH
MINIMUM RH VALUES ONLY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 80S
(PERCENT) ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WY THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH BETTER
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND OR SNOW WILL OCCUR EAST OF THE DIVIDE...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING TODAY  THROUGH THIS EVENING.
PRECIPITATION ENDS ACROSS WYOMING SUNDAY...HOWEVER FIRE DANGER WILL
REMAIN LOW FOR THE MOST PART AS LOTS OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE REMAINS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE AND GREEN UP BEGINS. WINDS...HOWEVER...WILL
BE QUITE GUSTY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF WYOMING.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR WYZ015.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAUN
LONG TERM...C.BAKER
AVIATION...BRAUN
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN




000
FXUS65 KCYS 010108
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
708 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 704 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA SHOWS THE LAST BAND
OF MODERATE SNOW/RAIN PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND
INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST WYOMING...WITH SNOW CHANGING BACK TO RAIN
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. WILL LIKELY CANCEL
THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS THIS LAST BAND
DISSIPATES AS IT MOVES SOUTHWEST. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE LESS THAN ONE INCH TONIGHT...BUT THE SNOW WILL BE LIGHT
ENOUGH TO NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON AREA ROADWAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH ENDING TIMES FOR HEADLINES AND SNOW
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER
THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF NORTH PLATTE. MOSAIC
RADAR SHOWING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO SCOTTSBLUFF AND EVENTUALLY HERE TO
CHEYENNE. NOT GETTING A WHOLE LOT OF ACCUMULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AS TEMPERATURES FROM AREA METARS ARE ABOVE FREEZING. INTERESTING
NOTE...CHADRON NEVER DID TURN OVER TO SNOW THROUGH THIS WHOLE
EVENT...WHILE IT SNOWED ALL DAY AT ALLIANCE. THERE IS AN ELEVATION
DIFFERENCE OF 600 FEET BETWEEN THESE TWO LOCATIONS. LATEST WYDOT
ROAD TEMPERATURES STILL WELL ABOVE FREEZING THIS
AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM AROUND 59 AT ELK MOUNTAIN ON I-80 TO 40
UP ON THE SUMMIT.

DECIDED TO CANCEL THE WINTER HEADLINES FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING WITH
THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE
TROWAL FEATURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. DID KEEP THE
PANHANDLE IN CURRENT HEADLINES AND WILL LET THE EVENING SHIFT TAKE
ANOTHER LOOK AT THINGS WHEN WE APPROACH SUNSET TO SEE IF SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS RETURN.

NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW TO CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY AS WE STAY IN
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA. KEPT INHERITED
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE
LARAMIE RANGE. ALL MODELS SHOWING VERY LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY...SO THE LOW POP FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY GOOD.

WE DRY OUT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS WESTERLY WINDS RETURN IN
THE MID LEVELS. 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AROUND FREEZING
MONDAY...SO WE SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S
AND LOW 50S BY THEN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THU...GIVEN LIMITED
MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. H7 TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 6 AND
9 DEG C WILL BE COMMON BY MIDWEEK...LIKELY SUPPORTING DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER
THURSDAY WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT...AND POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER SYSTEM. THE ECMWF KEEPS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING INTACT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...WHILE THE GFS IS ABOUT 12-24 HOURS EARLIER WITH
THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE. REGARDLESS...CONSENSUS IS FOR A STORMY
WEATHER PATTERN TO RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A VIGOROUS...CLOSED
UPPER LOW ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS. THE GFS SUGGESTS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE HIGH PLAINS
ON FRI OR SAT AFTERNOON WITH CAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG AND DECENT 0-
6 KM BULK SHEAR APPROACHING 30 KTS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AS
EARLY AS SUN MORNING AS THERMAL PROFILES BEGIN TO COOL...BUT IT IS
MUCH TOO EARLY TO START TALKING ABOUT POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS. YET
AGAIN THOUGH...FOR THE THIRD YEAR IN A ROW...WE COULD VERY WELL BE
LOOKING AT A WINTRY MOTHERS DAY. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)

IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO
PERSIST AT KRWL TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...WITH A SLOW
IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS AFTER 12Z-18Z SUN.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AS THE AREA HAS SEEN WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS AND
ACCUMULATING SNOW. SNOW WILL COME TO AN END SUNDAY WITH A DRIER
PATTERN MOVING INTO THE AREA. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH SLOWLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK. STILL NO FIRE CONCERNS AS
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20
TO LOW 30 PERCENT RANGE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TJT
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...GCC




000
FXUS65 KCYS 302345
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
545 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH ENDING TIMES FOR HEADLINES AND SNOW
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER
THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF NORTH PLATTE. MOSAIC
RADAR SHOWING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO SCOTTSBLUFF AND EVENTUALLY HERE TO
CHEYENNE. NOT GETTING A WHOLE LOT OF ACCUMULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AS TEMPERATURES FROM AREA METARS ARE ABOVE FREEZING. INTERESTING
NOTE...CHADRON NEVER DID TURN OVER TO SNOW THROUGH THIS WHOLE
EVENT...WHILE IT SNOWED ALL DAY AT ALLIANCE. THERE IS AN ELEVATION
DIFFERENCE OF 600 FEET BETWEEN THESE TWO LOCATIONS. LATEST WYDOT
ROAD TEMPERATURES STILL WELL ABOVE FREEZING THIS
AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM AROUND 59 AT ELK MOUNTAIN ON I-80 TO 40
UP ON THE SUMMIT.

DECIDED TO CANCEL THE WINTER HEADLINES FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING WITH
THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE
TROWAL FEATURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. DID KEEP THE
PANHANDLE IN CURRENT HEADLINES AND WILL LET THE EVENING SHIFT TAKE
ANOTHER LOOK AT THINGS WHEN WE APPROACH SUNSET TO SEE IF SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS RETURN.

NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW TO CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY AS WE STAY IN
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA. KEPT INHERITED
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE
LARAMIE RANGE. ALL MODELS SHOWING VERY LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY...SO THE LOW POP FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY GOOD.

WE DRY OUT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS WESTERLY WINDS RETURN IN
THE MID LEVELS. 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AROUND FREEZING
MONDAY...SO WE SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S
AND LOW 50S BY THEN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THU...GIVEN LIMITED
MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. H7 TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 6 AND
9 DEG C WILL BE COMMON BY MIDWEEK...LIKELY SUPPORTING DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER
THURSDAY WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT...AND POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER SYSTEM. THE ECMWF KEEPS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING INTACT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...WHILE THE GFS IS ABOUT 12-24 HOURS EARLIER WITH
THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE. REGARDLESS...CONSENSUS IS FOR A STORMY
WEATHER PATTERN TO RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A VIGOROUS...CLOSED
UPPER LOW ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS. THE GFS SUGGESTS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE HIGH PLAINS
ON FRI OR SAT AFTERNOON WITH CAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG AND DECENT 0-
6 KM BULK SHEAR APPROACHING 30 KTS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AS
EARLY AS SUN MORNING AS THERMAL PROFILES BEGIN TO COOL...BUT IT IS
MUCH TOO EARLY TO START TALKING ABOUT POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS. YET
AGAIN THOUGH...FOR THE THIRD YEAR IN A ROW...WE COULD VERY WELL BE
LOOKING AT A WINTRY MOTHERS DAY. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)

IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO
PERSIST AT KRWL TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...WITH A SLOW
IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS AFTER 12Z-18Z SUN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AS THE AREA HAS SEEN WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS AND
ACCUMULATING SNOW. SNOW WILL COME TO AN END SUNDAY WITH A DRIER
PATTERN MOVING INTO THE AREA. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH SLOWLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK. STILL NO FIRE CONCERNS AS
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20
TO LOW 30 PERCENT RANGE.


&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WY...NONE.

NE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ002-003-
     095-096.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ019>021-054-055.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...GCC




000
FXUS63 KUNR 302307
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
507 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

VIS/WV IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG STACKED LOW SLOWLY SLIDING EASTWARD
ACROSS NEBRASKA. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS EXTENSIVE WRAPAROUND
PRECIP AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF SD INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE AND
SE WY. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED MAINLY ACROSS THE
ERN BLKHLS INTO THE SURROUNDING FOOTHILLS. PRECIP ACROSS SW/SCNTRL
SD HAS STAYED AS RAIN....AS THE RAIN/SNOW LINE HAS NOW DRIFTED
SOUTHWARD INTO CNTRL NEB NEAR KLBF. LOW PRES WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO
ERN NEB TO THE IA/MO BORDER TONIGHT WITH PRECIP MOVING OUT OF THE
CWA BY LATE THIS EVNG OR THE OVNGHT HOURS. 1030MB SURFACE HIGH WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH WITH SKIES CLEAR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUN
MRNG. A QUIET DAY EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SKIES CONTINUING TO CLEAR
THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS WILL REACH THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. WINDS WILL
BE N/NE AT GENERALLY 10 KT. TEMPS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 30S SUN
NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

BOTH THE ECMWF/NAM SUGGEST A WAVE DROPPING SWD FROM CANADA ON
MONDAY ALONG WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR PCPN...BUT THE MAJORITY OF
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS DRY. WILL SIDE WITH THE DRY SOLUTION
FOR NOW WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. THE RIDGE
SHOULD PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE WEEK PROVIDING DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS. GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW A LARGE DESERT SW LOW FOR
THE TAIL END OF THE WEEK...WITH UPPER ENERGY ROTATING NEWD INTO
THE NRN PLAINS BY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF
PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 505 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

SCT MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE SE 1/4 WILL TREND VFR TONIGHT AS DRIER
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. VFR CONDS
EXPECTED ALL PLACES THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC




000
FXUS65 KCYS 302115
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
315 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH ENDING TIMES FOR HEADLINES AND SNOW
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER
THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF NORTH PLATTE. MOSAIC
RADAR SHOWING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO SCOTTSBLUFF AND EVENTUALLY HERE TO
CHEYENNE. NOT GETTING A WHOLE LOT OF ACCUMULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AS TEMPERATURES FROM AREA METARS ARE ABOVE FREEZING. INTERESTING
NOTE...CHADRON NEVER DID TURN OVER TO SNOW THROUGH THIS WHOLE
EVENT...WHILE IT SNOWED ALL DAY AT ALLIANCE. THERE IS AN ELEVATION
DIFFERENCE OF 600 FEET BETWEEN THESE TWO LOCATIONS. LATEST WYDOT
ROAD TEMPERATURES STILL WELL ABOVE FREEZING THIS
AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM AROUND 59 AT ELK MOUNTAIN ON I-80 TO 40
UP ON THE SUMMIT.

DECIDED TO CANCEL THE WINTER HEADLINES FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING WITH
THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE
TROWAL FEATURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. DID KEEP THE
PANHANDLE IN CURRENT HEADLINES AND WILL LET THE EVENING SHIFT TAKE
ANOTHER LOOK AT THINGS WHEN WE APPROACH SUNSET TO SEE IF SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS RETURN.

NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW TO CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY AS WE STAY IN
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA. KEPT INHERITED
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE
LARAMIE RANGE. ALL MODELS SHOWING VERY LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY...SO THE LOW POP FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY GOOD.

WE DRY OUT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS WESTERLY WINDS RETURN IN
THE MID LEVELS. 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AROUND FREEZING
MONDAY...SO WE SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S
AND LOW 50S BY THEN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THU...GIVEN LIMITED
MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. H7 TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 6 AND
9 DEG C WILL BE COMMON BY MIDWEEK...LIKELY SUPPORTING DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER
THURSDAY WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT...AND POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER SYSTEM. THE ECMWF KEEPS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING INTACT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...WHILE THE GFS IS ABOUT 12-24 HOURS EARLIER WITH
THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE. REGARDLESS...CONSENSUS IS FOR A STORMY
WEATHER PATTERN TO RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A VIGOROUS...CLOSED
UPPER LOW ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS. THE GFS SUGGESTS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE HIGH PLAINS
ON FRI OR SAT AFTERNOON WITH CAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG AND DECENT 0-
6 KM BULK SHEAR APPROACHING 30 KTS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AS
EARLY AS SUN MORNING AS THERMAL PROFILES BEGIN TO COOL...BUT IT IS
MUCH TOO EARLY TO START TALKING ABOUT POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS. YET
AGAIN THOUGH...FOR THE THIRD YEAR IN A ROW...WE COULD VERY WELL BE
LOOKING AT A WINTRY MOTHERS DAY. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND/OR SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...WITH A SLOW IMPROVEMENT
IN FLYING CONDITIONS AFTER 12Z SUN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AS THE AREA HAS SEEN WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS AND
ACCUMULATING SNOW. SNOW WILL COME TO AN END SUNDAY WITH A DRIER
PATTERN MOVING INTO THE AREA. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH SLOWLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK. STILL NO FIRE CONCERNS AS
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20
TO LOW 30 PERCENT RANGE.


&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ002-003-
     095-096.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ019>021-054-055.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...GCC




000
FXUS63 KUNR 302052
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
252 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

VIS/WV IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG STACKED LOW SLOWLY SLIDING EASTWARD
ACROSS NEBRASKA. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS EXTENSIVE WRAPAROUND
PRECIP AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF SD INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE AND
SE WY. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED MAINLY ACROSS THE
ERN BLKHLS INTO THE SURROUNDING FOOTHILLS. PRECIP ACROSS SW/SCNTRL
SD HAS STAYED AS RAIN....AS THE RAIN/SNOW LINE HAS NOW DRIFTED
SOUTHWARD INTO CNTRL NEB NEAR KLBF. LOW PRES WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO
ERN NEB TO THE IA/MO BORDER TONIGHT WITH PRECIP MOVING OUT OF THE
CWA BY LATE THIS EVNG OR THE OVNGHT HOURS. 1030MB SURFACE HIGH WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH WITH SKIES CLEAR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUN
MRNG. A QUIET DAY EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SKIES CONTINUING TO CLEAR
THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS WILL REACH THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. WINDS WILL
BE N/NE AT GENERALLY 10 KT. TEMPS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 30S SUN
NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

BOTH THE ECMWF/NAM SUGGEST A WAVE DROPPING SWD FROM CANADA ON
MONDAY ALONG WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR PCPN...BUT THE MAJORITY OF
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS DRY. WILL SIDE WITH THE DRY SOLUTION
FOR NOW WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. THE RIDGE
SHOULD PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE WEEK PROVIDING DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS. GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW A LARGE DESERT SW LOW FOR
THE TAIL END OF THE WEEK...WITH UPPER ENERGY ROTATING NEWD INTO
THE NRN PLAINS BY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF
PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF NERN WY AND
WRN SD...WITH IFR CIGS FROM THE SRN BLKHLS THROUGH FAR SRN SD IN
RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS FAR NWRN SD. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON




000
FXUS65 KRIW 301951
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
151 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

BROAD LOW WITH A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED CLOSED LOWS ACROSS THE WRN
2/3RDS OF THE CONUS. DEEPER CLOSED SYSTEM NOW CENTERED ACROSS THE
CNTRL PLAINS WITH THE SFC PORTION OF THE LOW NOW OVR MO. LONG
TRAJECTORY FEED OF MOISTURE FEEDS UP ACROSS THE MS VALLEY...THEN WWD
ACROSS SD/NE...TAILING OFF INTO ERN AND SRN WY/NRN CO. MOST PRECIP
WITHIN THE FA IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVR CNTRL/SRN WY...FALLING OFF
QUICKLY TO THE NORTH.

TODAY THRU THIS EVENING...THE UPR LOW STALLS OUT...ONLY MAKING IT
AS FAR E AS THE MO VALLEY BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH THE SFC PORTION
OF THE SYSTEM TRACKING TO IL. GENERALLY...THIS SLOW PROGRESSION EWD
WILL ALSO SLOWLY TAKE THE MOISTURE WITH IT...WITH THE MORE
STRATIFORM PRECIP E OF THE DIVIDE FALLING OFF IN PARALLEL. COLD AIR
ALOFT W OF THE DIVIDE...HOWEVER...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME -SHRA/ISO -
TSRA THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WITH THE WRN/SRN MOUNTAINS
REAPING THE BENEFITS FROM THIS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRECIP.

HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE ADVISORIES FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT ZONE 15
(ERN WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS)...AS THE BETTER PRECIP/SNOW CAME THROUGH
MID MORNING...BEFORE MIXING WITH OR TURNING TO ALL RAIN BELOW 5500
FEET BY LATE MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...QPF TRENDS ARE FAVORING THE THE
TERRAIN FORCED AREAS WITH A NE ASPECT. ALSO ACCUMULATING SNOW SEEMS
TO BE MOSTLY RELEGATED TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000 TO 6200 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON. SO...EVEN AS SNOW ELEVATIONS FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING...SO WILL THE PRECIP WITH MUCH LESS CHANCE TO
ACCUMULATE. OTHERWISE...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL GENERALLY
LIE BETWEEN 3 AND 9 INCHES ACROSS THE ERN WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS...2
TO 7 INCHES OVER/CLOSE TO CASPER MOUNTAIN...2 TO 6 INCHES IN THE SRN
ABSAROKAS...AND PERHAPS AN INCH TO 2 INCHES OVR PORTIONS OF NATRONA
AND FREMONT COUNTIES.

SUNDAY WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY A FOLDING RIDGE AND DRYING ACROSS THE
FA FROM N TO S THROUGH THE DAY...WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING MORNING
SHOWERS GIVING WAY TO A SPURIOUS SHOWER OR TWO...MAINLY IN THE
BIGHORN...LARAMIE...OR MEDICINE BOW MOUNTAINS. WARM UP
BEGINS...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH 30S AND 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

MOISTURE AND NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL TAPER OFF ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA SPLITS WITH THE NORTHEASTERN
PART OF THE LOW EXITING TO THE EAST WHILE A LARGE CLOSED LOW
CIRCULATION REFORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND DESERT
SOUTHWEST WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. DRYING OCCURS FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH AS A DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES SOUTH FROM ALBERTA
ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE WEAKENING OF THE SOUTHWEST LOW MAY
BE TOO FAST AND THE MODELS START TO DIFFER WITH THE DEMISE OF THE
LOW AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WEST. THIS
LEADS TO SIGNIFICANT DRYING AND WARMING TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
WHEN THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO EASTERN WYOMING...SOUTH SOUTHWEST
FLOW MOVES INTO WESTERN WYOMING WITH SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. THE SPREAD
BETWEEN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS BECOMES QUITE LARGE...BUT WITH A GENERAL
LONG WAVE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE TO THE WEST
AND EAST OF THE AREA WHERE LONG WAVE TROUGHS BRACKET THE RIDGE.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HIGHS WARM NICELY INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S
WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES IN THE BIGHORN BASIN.  SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO BECOME SCATTERED OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO HEATING.  SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE ON THE GROUND TO EVAPORATE AND PROVIDE NEEDED MOISTURE FOR
CONVECTION. AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
FRIDAY AND FORMS YET ANOTHER CUT OFF LOW...UPLSOPE EAST TO NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE AREA WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED
MOISTURE AND LIFT SUPPORTING A RETURN TO AREAS OF SNOW AND RAIN
MOVING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO COOL
SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY AS SHOWERS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND
EAST TO NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW DEEPENS AND MOISTENS.  SNOW LEVEL
SHOULD START OUT AROUND 9000 FEET WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX DOWN TO 7500
FEET.


&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...KJAC/KRKS/KPNA/KBPI AIRPORTS

VFR/OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF WESTERN WY THROUGH THE
EVENING. KRKS WILL PERSIST MVFR OVER THE SAME PERIOD. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE INTO THE
EVENING PERIOD WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
ACCOMPANYING...DECREASING OR ENDING BY AROUND 06Z. AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS AND OR VCFG THEN RETURN AND BE AROUND THROUGH 15Z SUNDAY.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL ALSO BE PERSISTENT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH SKIES FINALLY BREAKING ACROSS THE FAR WEST BY
AFTERNOON.

EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...KCPR/KCOD/KRIW/KWRL/KLND AIRPORTS

PERIODS OF RAIN AND OR SNOW THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. FAR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF WY WILL SEE MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION...WITH
SKIES EVEN VFR...AT/NEAR KCOD FOR EXAMPLE. GENERALLY...THE RAIN AND
SNOW WILL DECREASE AFTER 03Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN LOW CIGS TO PERSIST OVER MOST OF CENTRAL WYOMING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...ENDING AROUND 15Z. MOUNTAINS WILL BE
FREQUENTLY OBSCURED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

TODAY...LOW FIRE DANGER FOR ALL LOCATIONS CONTINUES WITH HIGH
MINIMUM RH VALUES ONLY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 80S
(PERCENT) ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WY THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH BETTER
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND OR SNOW WILL OCCUR EAST OF THE DIVIDE...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING TODAY  THROUGH THIS EVENING.
PRECIPITATION ENDS ACROSS WYOMING SUNDAY...HOWEVER FIRE DANGER WILL
REMAIN LOW FOR THE MOST PART AS LOTS OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE REMAINS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE AND GREEN UP BEGINS. WINDS...HOWEVER...WILL
BE QUITE GUSTY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF WYOMING.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR WYZ015.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAUN
LONG TERM...C.BAKER
AVIATION...BRAUN
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN




000
FXUS65 KCYS 301747
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1147 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 808 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

GETTING REPORTS OF HEAVY SNOW AT SUCH PLACES AS ALLIANCE AND
HEMINGFORD OUT IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. GOING TO
GET MORE SNOW THIS MORNING BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ENOUGH TO GET
A MIXTURE. WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE ADVISORY TO A WARNING FOR
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. TOUGH CALL AS IT IS STILL RAINING IN
CHADRON...SO THE RAIN/SNOW LINE IS VERY IMPORTANT OUT THERE.
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWING SEVERAL MORE INCHES CONTINUING THIS
MORNING. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE TODAY PERIOD AS SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
ACROSS THE AREA. THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION TREND IS DECREASING
BASED ON RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. GENERALLY EXPECTING THIS
TREND TO CONTINUE WITH LIGHT SNOW OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SNOW ENDING ACROSS THE WEST AND
NORTH THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY HIGHER SNOW
RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE MORNING MAINLY OVER
THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. OF COURSE CHADRON IS STILL
REPORTING RAIN...SO AS EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BE LARGELY
ELEVATION DRIVEN AND THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH TODAY. IN
FACT SNOW WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER TO RAIN ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY THIS
AFTERNOON.

BASED ON ASOS OBSERVATIONS...THE NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE IN LAGER
PART BEEN PRODUCING TOO MUCH PRECIPITATION WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM.
THE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH TODAY. THEREFORE
LOWERED TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST FROM THIS
STORM SYSTEM. MAY SEE SOME ACCUMULATIONS OVER 6 INCHES ACROSS THE
PINE RIDGE AND OTHER RIDGE TOPS. EVEN SHOULD SOME LOCALIZED PLACES
COME IN WITH HIGHER SNOW TOTALS...THE OVERALL IMPACTS WILL BE
MINIMAL. AT THIS TIME MOST ROADS ACROSS THE AREA ARE SLUSHY TO
SNOW COVERED. BY MID MORNING THE LATE APRIL SUN WILL WARM THE
ROADS ENOUGH TO MELT MOST ALL SNOW OFF OF THE ROADS. THEREFORE THE
MAIN TRAVEL CONCERNS WILL BE THROUGH MID TO LATE THIS MORNING.
MOST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TODAY WILL BE ON GRASSY AND OTHER
ELEVATED SURFACES. WINDS WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR TODAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 OVER MUCH OF THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TODAY BUT CONSIDERING THE SNOW WILL BE WET AND
STICKY...BLOWING SNOW WILL NOT OCCUR.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

A FEW DAYS RESPITE FROM THE COOL AND WET WEATHER IN THE TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY TIME PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGING LOOKS TO BE OVER THE
CWA IN AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN FEATURING UPPER LOWS OFF THE WEST
COAST AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL BRING WARMER
TEMPS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH MAX TEMPS GETTING CLOSE TO OR
EXCEEDING 70 OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS WEDS THROUGH THURSDAY. CHANGES
BEGIN ON FRIDAY AS THE OVERALL PATTERN SHIFTS EAST AND THE WESTERN
UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE EXTREME SW CONUS. MOISTURE SHOULD
INCREASE OVER THE CWA FRIDAY WITH A DECENT DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW
OVER THE AREA SO SHOULD SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR PCPN AT THAT
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND/OR SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...WITH A SLOW IMPROVEMENT
IN FLYING CONDITIONS AFTER 12Z SUN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

A COLD SPRING STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY WITH SOME RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS INTO THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEK AHEAD ALONG WITH
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ116-117.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ101-
     102-106>108-118-119.

NE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ002-003-
     095-096.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ019>021-054-055.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...SML




000
FXUS63 KUNR 301712
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1112 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 837 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

WEBCAMS/SURFACE OBS SHOW PRECIPITATION CONTINUING TO FALL AS RAIN
ACROSS SW/SCNTRL SD. THE RAIN/SNOW LINE HAS STAYED WELL SOUTH OF
THE NEB BORDER...NEAR KANW. SO HAVE CANCELLED ALL WINTER
HEADLINES. ALSO MADE MANY ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO REFLECT THE MORE
SOUTHERN POSITIONING OF THE PRECIP. HRRR SHOWS SOME SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE BLKHLS AREA INTO PARTS OF NE WY THROUGH THE
AFTN...SO HAVE LEFT IN SOME MINIMAL POPS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MOVE INTO SOUTHERN SD...STILL
IN THE FORM OF RAIN ATTM. PRECIPITATION HAS NOT DEVELOPED OVER THE
HILLS AS EXPECTED...AND SO CANCELED THE ADVISORY THERE. IF SNOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE HILLS THIS MORNING...ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL. TECHNICALLY HAVE LESS THAN ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL IN
GRIDS FOR SOUTHERN SD...ONLY 1 TO 2 INCHES. HI-RES MODELS INDICATE
MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS THERE AS WELL. HOWEVER...BEING ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGHER AMOUNTS IN NEBRASKA...WILL CONTINUE
ADVISORY FOR POSSIBLE FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL THIS MORNING.
NOTED IN WSW THAT HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 213 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH COVERS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
CONUS...WITH UPPER LOW OVER THE CO/KS BORDER. LOW CLOUDS BLANKET
THE CWA. RADAR SHOWS PRECIP BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO SOUTHERN
SD...AND CURRENT OBS ALONG THE NE/SD BORDER INDICATE RAIN. TEMPS
ARE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S...AND WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
NORTHEASTERLY.

UPPER LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH RAIN/SNOW NORTHWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL
KEEP PRECIP FROM SPREADING TOO MUCH PAST THE I-90 CORRIDOR. MEDIUM-
RANGE MODELS ARE OVERESTIMATING POTENTIAL SNOWFALL THIS
MORNING...AS ECM/GFS/NAM/SREF HAVE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW BY NOW IN
THE AREAS THAT ARE CURRENTLY DRY OR RECEIVING RAIN. LATEST HRRR
RUN SHOWS HARDLY ANY SNOW FOR SOUTHWESTERN SD...WITH ABOUT AN INCH
IN THE HILLS. EVEN THE NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ALL
PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN...WITH LOW-LEVEL TEMPS TOO WARM TO SUPPORT
SNOW. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DYNAMIC COOLING AND WET-
BULB EFFECTS TO OVERCOME THE WARM SURFACE WITH A QUICK FEW INCHES
OF SNOW THIS MORNING...SO WILL LET ADVISORY CONTINUE FOR NOW.
BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
SD THIS AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW TO THE SOUTH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH AND THE BLACK HILLS TO THE LOWER
50S FARTHER NORTH.

PRECIP MOVES OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SINKS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FOR
SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S...STARTING A WARMING TREND FOR NEXT
WEEK.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 213 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE COMING WEEK. THIS WILL
BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS. NEXT UPPER LOW SHIFTS INTO
WESTERN CONUS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN TRACKS INTO THE
PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND. COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING CHANCES
OF RAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF NERN WY AND
WRN SD...WITH IFR CIGS FROM THE SRN BLKHLS THROUGH FAR SRN SD IN
RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS FAR NWRN SD. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...JOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 301712
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1112 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 837 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

WEBCAMS/SURFACE OBS SHOW PRECIPITATION CONTINUING TO FALL AS RAIN
ACROSS SW/SCNTRL SD. THE RAIN/SNOW LINE HAS STAYED WELL SOUTH OF
THE NEB BORDER...NEAR KANW. SO HAVE CANCELLED ALL WINTER
HEADLINES. ALSO MADE MANY ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO REFLECT THE MORE
SOUTHERN POSITIONING OF THE PRECIP. HRRR SHOWS SOME SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE BLKHLS AREA INTO PARTS OF NE WY THROUGH THE
AFTN...SO HAVE LEFT IN SOME MINIMAL POPS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MOVE INTO SOUTHERN SD...STILL
IN THE FORM OF RAIN ATTM. PRECIPITATION HAS NOT DEVELOPED OVER THE
HILLS AS EXPECTED...AND SO CANCELED THE ADVISORY THERE. IF SNOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE HILLS THIS MORNING...ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL. TECHNICALLY HAVE LESS THAN ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL IN
GRIDS FOR SOUTHERN SD...ONLY 1 TO 2 INCHES. HI-RES MODELS INDICATE
MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS THERE AS WELL. HOWEVER...BEING ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGHER AMOUNTS IN NEBRASKA...WILL CONTINUE
ADVISORY FOR POSSIBLE FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL THIS MORNING.
NOTED IN WSW THAT HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 213 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH COVERS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
CONUS...WITH UPPER LOW OVER THE CO/KS BORDER. LOW CLOUDS BLANKET
THE CWA. RADAR SHOWS PRECIP BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO SOUTHERN
SD...AND CURRENT OBS ALONG THE NE/SD BORDER INDICATE RAIN. TEMPS
ARE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S...AND WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
NORTHEASTERLY.

UPPER LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH RAIN/SNOW NORTHWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL
KEEP PRECIP FROM SPREADING TOO MUCH PAST THE I-90 CORRIDOR. MEDIUM-
RANGE MODELS ARE OVERESTIMATING POTENTIAL SNOWFALL THIS
MORNING...AS ECM/GFS/NAM/SREF HAVE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW BY NOW IN
THE AREAS THAT ARE CURRENTLY DRY OR RECEIVING RAIN. LATEST HRRR
RUN SHOWS HARDLY ANY SNOW FOR SOUTHWESTERN SD...WITH ABOUT AN INCH
IN THE HILLS. EVEN THE NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ALL
PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN...WITH LOW-LEVEL TEMPS TOO WARM TO SUPPORT
SNOW. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DYNAMIC COOLING AND WET-
BULB EFFECTS TO OVERCOME THE WARM SURFACE WITH A QUICK FEW INCHES
OF SNOW THIS MORNING...SO WILL LET ADVISORY CONTINUE FOR NOW.
BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
SD THIS AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW TO THE SOUTH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH AND THE BLACK HILLS TO THE LOWER
50S FARTHER NORTH.

PRECIP MOVES OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SINKS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FOR
SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S...STARTING A WARMING TREND FOR NEXT
WEEK.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 213 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE COMING WEEK. THIS WILL
BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS. NEXT UPPER LOW SHIFTS INTO
WESTERN CONUS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN TRACKS INTO THE
PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND. COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING CHANCES
OF RAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF NERN WY AND
WRN SD...WITH IFR CIGS FROM THE SRN BLKHLS THROUGH FAR SRN SD IN
RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS FAR NWRN SD. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...JOHNSON




000
FXUS65 KRIW 301655
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1055 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

FINALLY SOME HOPE FOR SOME DRIER AND MORE SPRINGLIKE WEATHER IS ON
THE WAY. HOWEVER...WE HAVE TO GET THROUGH ONE TO ONE AND A HALF MORE
DAYS OF SOUP BEFORE WE GET THERE.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW SPINNING OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL CONTINUE
TO WRAP MOISTURE BACK INTO CENTRAL WYOMING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
MORE OF THE SAME WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. WITH THE SOUTHEAST FLOW...THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL FALL
ALONG THE EAST TO NORTHEAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS AND
PLACES LIKE THE UPPER WIND RIVER BASIN. AS FOR THE ADVISORIES...WE
WILL LEAVE THEM UP. ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WOULD REACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA...IMPACTS MAY BE MINIMAL FOR THE FOLLOWING REASONS. THE AIR
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT TERRIBLY COLD WITH MOST OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE FREEZING. THIS COMBINED
WITH THE STRONG LATE APRIL SUN WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR SNOW TO
ACCUMULATE AT TIMES UNLESS THE RATE IS HEAVY...ESPECIALLY ON ROADS
AND OTHER PAVED SURFACES. THIS COULD BE A SITUATION WHERE THERE
COULD BE 3 TO 5 INCHES ON THE GRASS AND CAR TOPS WHILE THE ROADS ARE
ONLY WET TO SLUSHY IN SPOTS. IN ADDITION...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE TIME IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...THE SNOW
WILL LIKELY MIX WITH RAIN AND SNOW AT TIMES. THE BIGGEST TIMES OF
CONCERN WOULD BE UNTIL AROUND 9 AM THIS MORNING AND AFTER 8 PM
TONIGHT AFTER THE SUN GOES DOWN. THE MODELS HAVE COME IN BETTER
AGREEMENT IN ENDING THE STEADY PRECIPITATION BY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH ONLY A SMALL
CHANCE OF SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS. AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTH...EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR A RETURN APPEARANCE OF THAT YELLOW ORB
IN THE SKY...WHAT IS THAT THING CALLED?  OH...THE SUN. MANY AREAS
HAVE NOT SEEN IT IN SO LONG I FORGOT WHAT IT WAS CALLED. SINCE IT
HAS TAKEN LONGER TO CLEAR THAT THE MODELS HAVE INDICATED...WE KEPT
THINGS CLOUDIER WITH THE REASONING THAT IF IT GETS SUNNIER AND
WARMER...MOST PEOPLE WILL BE HAPPY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN
THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS HOWEVER.

MONDAY AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THE NICER DAYS THAT WE HAVE
HAD IN A WHILE. AT THIS POINT...THE ONLY PLACE WITH THE CHANCE OF A
FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE OVER THE FAR SOUTH WITH SOME
MOISTURE GETTING THROWN NORTHWARD FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. BUT EVEN HERE...THEY LOOK FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE AS WELL WITH MORE SUNSHINE.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE WEST
THURSDAY AND INTO CENTRAL WYOMING FRIDAY.  CLOUDY AND COOLER WEATHER
WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

DISCUSSION...BLOCKY PATTERN WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE ROCKIES...PACIFIC TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST BEGIN THIS PERIOD
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  SOME MOISTURE AND SLIGHT INSTABILITY OVER
THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS...OTHERWISE
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND
BASINS IN THE 60S AND 70S WILL BE THE RULE.

UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.  WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF A KEMMERER-
DUBOIS-POWELL LINE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.  WARM SOUTH WIND WILL
BRING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE DIVIDE WITH A FEW
NEAR 80F READINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER BASINS.

ECMWF IS INITIALLY SLOWER THAN GFS BRINGING SW LOW INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT ECMWF THEN ACCELERATES
UPPER LOW INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY 00Z SUNDAY WHILE GFS SHOWS
MORE OF A REX BLOCK SETTING UP OVER THE ROCKIES WITH UPPER LOW
REMAINING IN THE FOUR CORNERS AREA.  THE SLOWER SOLUTION...GFS IN
THIS CASE...USUALLY WINS OUT WITH A SW LOW AND STRONG DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING.


&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...KJAC/KRKS/KPNA/KBPI AIRPORTS

VFR/OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF WESTERN WY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. KRKS WILL PERSIST MVFR OVER THE SAME PERIOD. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
ACCOMPANYING. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL ALSO BE PERSISTENT THROUGH
THE EVENING PERIOD. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TO ISOLATED ACTIVITY
BEFORE 06Z SUNDAY. HOWEVER AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND OR VCFG WILL
BE AROUND THROUGH 15Z SUNDAY.

EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...KCPR/KCOD/KRIW/KWRL/KLND AIRPORTS

PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. FAR NORTHERN WY
WILL SEE LESS PRECIPITATION TODAY. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
OVER MOST OF THE REGION...WITH MVFR TO VFR UP NORTH. MOUNTAINS WILL
BE FREQUENTLY OBSCURED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE RAIN AND SNOW
WILL DECREASE AFTER 03Z. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND OR VCFG WILL
BE AROUND OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH 15Z SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

FIRE DANGER SHOULD REMAIN LOW INTO THE WEEKEND AS EASTERLY FLOW
KEEPS TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY ON THE
HIGH SIDE. MANY AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN WYOMING WILL HAVE A
GOOD CHANCE OF A WETTING RAIN TODAY WITH PERIODS OF MIXED RAIN AND
SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL BEGIN A DRYING
TREND SUNDAY AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT MDT
TONIGHT FOR WYZ002-011-015>020-022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...BRAUN
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS




000
FXUS65 KRIW 301655
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1055 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

FINALLY SOME HOPE FOR SOME DRIER AND MORE SPRINGLIKE WEATHER IS ON
THE WAY. HOWEVER...WE HAVE TO GET THROUGH ONE TO ONE AND A HALF MORE
DAYS OF SOUP BEFORE WE GET THERE.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW SPINNING OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL CONTINUE
TO WRAP MOISTURE BACK INTO CENTRAL WYOMING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
MORE OF THE SAME WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. WITH THE SOUTHEAST FLOW...THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL FALL
ALONG THE EAST TO NORTHEAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS AND
PLACES LIKE THE UPPER WIND RIVER BASIN. AS FOR THE ADVISORIES...WE
WILL LEAVE THEM UP. ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WOULD REACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA...IMPACTS MAY BE MINIMAL FOR THE FOLLOWING REASONS. THE AIR
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT TERRIBLY COLD WITH MOST OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE FREEZING. THIS COMBINED
WITH THE STRONG LATE APRIL SUN WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR SNOW TO
ACCUMULATE AT TIMES UNLESS THE RATE IS HEAVY...ESPECIALLY ON ROADS
AND OTHER PAVED SURFACES. THIS COULD BE A SITUATION WHERE THERE
COULD BE 3 TO 5 INCHES ON THE GRASS AND CAR TOPS WHILE THE ROADS ARE
ONLY WET TO SLUSHY IN SPOTS. IN ADDITION...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE TIME IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...THE SNOW
WILL LIKELY MIX WITH RAIN AND SNOW AT TIMES. THE BIGGEST TIMES OF
CONCERN WOULD BE UNTIL AROUND 9 AM THIS MORNING AND AFTER 8 PM
TONIGHT AFTER THE SUN GOES DOWN. THE MODELS HAVE COME IN BETTER
AGREEMENT IN ENDING THE STEADY PRECIPITATION BY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH ONLY A SMALL
CHANCE OF SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS. AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTH...EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR A RETURN APPEARANCE OF THAT YELLOW ORB
IN THE SKY...WHAT IS THAT THING CALLED?  OH...THE SUN. MANY AREAS
HAVE NOT SEEN IT IN SO LONG I FORGOT WHAT IT WAS CALLED. SINCE IT
HAS TAKEN LONGER TO CLEAR THAT THE MODELS HAVE INDICATED...WE KEPT
THINGS CLOUDIER WITH THE REASONING THAT IF IT GETS SUNNIER AND
WARMER...MOST PEOPLE WILL BE HAPPY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN
THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS HOWEVER.

MONDAY AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THE NICER DAYS THAT WE HAVE
HAD IN A WHILE. AT THIS POINT...THE ONLY PLACE WITH THE CHANCE OF A
FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE OVER THE FAR SOUTH WITH SOME
MOISTURE GETTING THROWN NORTHWARD FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. BUT EVEN HERE...THEY LOOK FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE AS WELL WITH MORE SUNSHINE.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE WEST
THURSDAY AND INTO CENTRAL WYOMING FRIDAY.  CLOUDY AND COOLER WEATHER
WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

DISCUSSION...BLOCKY PATTERN WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE ROCKIES...PACIFIC TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST BEGIN THIS PERIOD
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  SOME MOISTURE AND SLIGHT INSTABILITY OVER
THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS...OTHERWISE
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND
BASINS IN THE 60S AND 70S WILL BE THE RULE.

UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.  WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF A KEMMERER-
DUBOIS-POWELL LINE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.  WARM SOUTH WIND WILL
BRING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE DIVIDE WITH A FEW
NEAR 80F READINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER BASINS.

ECMWF IS INITIALLY SLOWER THAN GFS BRINGING SW LOW INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT ECMWF THEN ACCELERATES
UPPER LOW INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY 00Z SUNDAY WHILE GFS SHOWS
MORE OF A REX BLOCK SETTING UP OVER THE ROCKIES WITH UPPER LOW
REMAINING IN THE FOUR CORNERS AREA.  THE SLOWER SOLUTION...GFS IN
THIS CASE...USUALLY WINS OUT WITH A SW LOW AND STRONG DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING.


&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...KJAC/KRKS/KPNA/KBPI AIRPORTS

VFR/OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF WESTERN WY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. KRKS WILL PERSIST MVFR OVER THE SAME PERIOD. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
ACCOMPANYING. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL ALSO BE PERSISTENT THROUGH
THE EVENING PERIOD. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TO ISOLATED ACTIVITY
BEFORE 06Z SUNDAY. HOWEVER AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND OR VCFG WILL
BE AROUND THROUGH 15Z SUNDAY.

EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...KCPR/KCOD/KRIW/KWRL/KLND AIRPORTS

PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. FAR NORTHERN WY
WILL SEE LESS PRECIPITATION TODAY. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
OVER MOST OF THE REGION...WITH MVFR TO VFR UP NORTH. MOUNTAINS WILL
BE FREQUENTLY OBSCURED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE RAIN AND SNOW
WILL DECREASE AFTER 03Z. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND OR VCFG WILL
BE AROUND OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH 15Z SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

FIRE DANGER SHOULD REMAIN LOW INTO THE WEEKEND AS EASTERLY FLOW
KEEPS TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY ON THE
HIGH SIDE. MANY AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN WYOMING WILL HAVE A
GOOD CHANCE OF A WETTING RAIN TODAY WITH PERIODS OF MIXED RAIN AND
SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL BEGIN A DRYING
TREND SUNDAY AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT MDT
TONIGHT FOR WYZ002-011-015>020-022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...BRAUN
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS




000
FXUS63 KUNR 301440
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
840 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 837 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

WEBCAMS/SURFACE OBS SHOW PRECIPITATION CONTINUING TO FALL AS RAIN
ACROSS SW/SCNTRL SD. THE RAIN/SNOW LINE HAS STAYED WELL SOUTH OF
THE NEB BORDER...NEAR KANW. SO HAVE CANCELLED ALL WINTER
HEADLINES. ALSO MADE MANY ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO REFLECT THE MORE
SOUTHERN POSITIONING OF THE PRECIP. HRRR SHOWS SOME SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE BLKHLS AREA INTO PARTS OF NE WY THROUGH THE
AFTN...SO HAVE LEFT IN SOME MINIMAL POPS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MOVE INTO SOUTHERN SD...STILL
IN THE FORM OF RAIN ATTM. PRECIPITATION HAS NOT DEVELOPED OVER THE
HILLS AS EXPECTED...AND SO CANCELED THE ADVISORY THERE. IF SNOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE HILLS THIS MORNING...ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL. TECHNICALLY HAVE LESS THAN ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL IN
GRIDS FOR SOUTHERN SD...ONLY 1 TO 2 INCHES. HI-RES MODELS INDICATE
MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS THERE AS WELL. HOWEVER...BEING ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGHER AMOUNTS IN NEBRASKA...WILL CONTINUE
ADVISORY FOR POSSIBLE FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL THIS MORNING.
NOTED IN WSW THAT HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 213 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH COVERS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
CONUS...WITH UPPER LOW OVER THE CO/KS BORDER. LOW CLOUDS BLANKET
THE CWA. RADAR SHOWS PRECIP BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO SOUTHERN
SD...AND CURRENT OBS ALONG THE NE/SD BORDER INDICATE RAIN. TEMPS
ARE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S...AND WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
NORTHEASTERLY.

UPPER LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH RAIN/SNOW NORTHWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL
KEEP PRECIP FROM SPREADING TOO MUCH PAST THE I-90 CORRIDOR. MEDIUM-
RANGE MODELS ARE OVERESTIMATING POTENTIAL SNOWFALL THIS
MORNING...AS ECM/GFS/NAM/SREF HAVE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW BY NOW IN
THE AREAS THAT ARE CURRENTLY DRY OR RECEIVING RAIN. LATEST HRRR
RUN SHOWS HARDLY ANY SNOW FOR SOUTHWESTERN SD...WITH ABOUT AN INCH
IN THE HILLS. EVEN THE NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ALL
PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN...WITH LOW-LEVEL TEMPS TOO WARM TO SUPPORT
SNOW. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DYNAMIC COOLING AND WET-
BULB EFFECTS TO OVERCOME THE WARM SURFACE WITH A QUICK FEW INCHES
OF SNOW THIS MORNING...SO WILL LET ADVISORY CONTINUE FOR NOW.
BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
SD THIS AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW TO THE SOUTH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH AND THE BLACK HILLS TO THE LOWER
50S FARTHER NORTH.

PRECIP MOVES OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SINKS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FOR
SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S...STARTING A WARMING TREND FOR NEXT
WEEK.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 213 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE COMING WEEK. THIS WILL
BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS. NEXT UPPER LOW SHIFTS INTO
WESTERN CONUS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN TRACKS INTO THE
PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND. COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING CHANCES
OF RAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 213 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

MVFR/LCL IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY. RAIN/SNOW WILL
SPREAD INTO THE AREA TODAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SOME
MVFR/IFR VSBY WITH THE PRECIPITATION. CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...13
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7




000
FXUS63 KUNR 301440
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
840 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 837 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

WEBCAMS/SURFACE OBS SHOW PRECIPITATION CONTINUING TO FALL AS RAIN
ACROSS SW/SCNTRL SD. THE RAIN/SNOW LINE HAS STAYED WELL SOUTH OF
THE NEB BORDER...NEAR KANW. SO HAVE CANCELLED ALL WINTER
HEADLINES. ALSO MADE MANY ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO REFLECT THE MORE
SOUTHERN POSITIONING OF THE PRECIP. HRRR SHOWS SOME SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE BLKHLS AREA INTO PARTS OF NE WY THROUGH THE
AFTN...SO HAVE LEFT IN SOME MINIMAL POPS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MOVE INTO SOUTHERN SD...STILL
IN THE FORM OF RAIN ATTM. PRECIPITATION HAS NOT DEVELOPED OVER THE
HILLS AS EXPECTED...AND SO CANCELED THE ADVISORY THERE. IF SNOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE HILLS THIS MORNING...ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL. TECHNICALLY HAVE LESS THAN ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL IN
GRIDS FOR SOUTHERN SD...ONLY 1 TO 2 INCHES. HI-RES MODELS INDICATE
MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS THERE AS WELL. HOWEVER...BEING ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGHER AMOUNTS IN NEBRASKA...WILL CONTINUE
ADVISORY FOR POSSIBLE FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL THIS MORNING.
NOTED IN WSW THAT HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 213 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH COVERS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
CONUS...WITH UPPER LOW OVER THE CO/KS BORDER. LOW CLOUDS BLANKET
THE CWA. RADAR SHOWS PRECIP BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO SOUTHERN
SD...AND CURRENT OBS ALONG THE NE/SD BORDER INDICATE RAIN. TEMPS
ARE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S...AND WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
NORTHEASTERLY.

UPPER LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH RAIN/SNOW NORTHWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL
KEEP PRECIP FROM SPREADING TOO MUCH PAST THE I-90 CORRIDOR. MEDIUM-
RANGE MODELS ARE OVERESTIMATING POTENTIAL SNOWFALL THIS
MORNING...AS ECM/GFS/NAM/SREF HAVE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW BY NOW IN
THE AREAS THAT ARE CURRENTLY DRY OR RECEIVING RAIN. LATEST HRRR
RUN SHOWS HARDLY ANY SNOW FOR SOUTHWESTERN SD...WITH ABOUT AN INCH
IN THE HILLS. EVEN THE NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ALL
PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN...WITH LOW-LEVEL TEMPS TOO WARM TO SUPPORT
SNOW. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DYNAMIC COOLING AND WET-
BULB EFFECTS TO OVERCOME THE WARM SURFACE WITH A QUICK FEW INCHES
OF SNOW THIS MORNING...SO WILL LET ADVISORY CONTINUE FOR NOW.
BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
SD THIS AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW TO THE SOUTH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH AND THE BLACK HILLS TO THE LOWER
50S FARTHER NORTH.

PRECIP MOVES OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SINKS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FOR
SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S...STARTING A WARMING TREND FOR NEXT
WEEK.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 213 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE COMING WEEK. THIS WILL
BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS. NEXT UPPER LOW SHIFTS INTO
WESTERN CONUS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN TRACKS INTO THE
PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND. COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING CHANCES
OF RAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 213 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

MVFR/LCL IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY. RAIN/SNOW WILL
SPREAD INTO THE AREA TODAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SOME
MVFR/IFR VSBY WITH THE PRECIPITATION. CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...13
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7




000
FXUS65 KCYS 301427
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
827 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 808 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

GETTING REPORTS OF HEAVY SNOW AT SUCH PLACES AS ALLIANCE AND
HEMINGFORD OUT IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. GOING TO
GET MORE SNOW THIS MORNING BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ENOUGH TO GET
A MIXTURE. WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE ADVISORY TO A WARNING FOR
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. TOUGH CALL AS IT IS STILL RAINING IN
CHADRON...SO THE RAIN/SNOW LINE IS VERY IMPORTANT OUT THERE.
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWING SEVERAL MORE INCHES CONTINUING THIS
MORNING. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE TODAY PERIOD AS SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
ACROSS THE AREA. THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION TREND IS DECREASING
BASED ON RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. GENERALLY EXPECTING THIS
TREND TO CONTINUE WITH LIGHT SNOW OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SNOW ENDING ACROSS THE WEST AND
NORTH THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY HIGHER SNOW
RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE MORNING MAINLY OVER
THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. OF COURSE CHADRON IS STILL
REPORTING RAIN...SO AS EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BE LARGELY
ELEVATION DRIVEN AND THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH TODAY. IN
FACT SNOW WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER TO RAIN ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRAKSA PANHANDLE BY THIS
AFTERNOON.

BASED ON ASOS OBSERVATIONS...THE NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE IN LAGER
PART BEEN PRODUCING TOO MUCH PRECIPITATION WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM.
THE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH TODAY. THEREFORE
LOWERED TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST FROM THIS
STORM SYSTEM. MAY SEE SOME ACCUMULATIONS OVER 6 INCHES ACROSS THE
PINE RIDGE AND OTHER RIDGE TOPS. EVEN SHOULD SOME LOCALIZED PLACES
COME IN WITH HIGHER SNOW TOTALS...THE OVERALL IMPACTS WILL BE
MINIMAL. AT THIS TIME MOST ROADS ACROSS THE AREA ARE SLUSHY TO
SNOW COVERED. BY MID MORNING THE LATE APRIL SUN WILL WARM THE
ROADS ENOUGH TO MELT MOST ALL SNOW OFF OF THE ROADS. THEREFORE THE
MAIN TRAVEL CONCERNS WILL BE THROUGH MID TO LATE THIS MORNING.
MOST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TODAY WILL BE ON GRASSY AND OTHER
ELEVATED SURFACES. WINDS WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR TODAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 OVER MUCH OF THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TODAY BUT CONSIDERING THE SNOW WILL BE WET AND
STICKY...BLOWING SNOW WILL NOT OCCUR.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

A FEW DAYS RESPITE FROM THE COOL AND WET WEATHER IN THE TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY TIME PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGING LOOKS TO BE OVER THE
CWA IN AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN FEATURING UPPER LOWS OFF THE WEST
COAST AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL BRING WARMER
TEMPS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH MAX TEMPS GETTING CLOSE TO OR
EXCEEDING 70 OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS WEDS THROUGH THURSDAY. CHANGES
BEGIN ON FRIDAY AS THE OVERALL PATTERN SHIFTS EAST AND THE WESTERN
UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE EXTREME SW CONUS. MOISTURE SHOULD
INCREASE OVER THE CWA FRIDAY WITH A DECENT DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW
OVER THE AREA SO SHOULD SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR PCPN AT THAT
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED. WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW.  SLOW IMPROVEMENT
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY BUT STILL LIKELY TO BE MAINLY MVFR CIGS
THROUGH THE DAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

A COLD SPRING STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY WITH SOME RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS INTO THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEK AHEAD ALONG WITH
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ116-117.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ101-
     102-106>108-118-119.

NE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ002-003-
     095-096.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ019>021-054-055.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...SML




000
FXUS63 KUNR 301138
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
538 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MOVE INTO SOUTHERN SD...STILL
IN THE FORM OF RAIN ATTM. PRECIPITATION HAS NOT DEVELOPED OVER THE
HILLS AS EXPECTED...AND SO CANCELED THE ADVISORY THERE. IF SNOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE HILLS THIS MORNING...ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL. TECHNICALLY HAVE LESS THAN ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL IN
GRIDS FOR SOUTHERN SD...ONLY 1 TO 2 INCHES. HI-RES MODELS INDICATE
MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS THERE AS WELL. HOWEVER...BEING ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGHER AMOUNTS IN NEBRASKA...WILL CONTINUE
ADVISORY FOR POSSIBLE FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL THIS MORNING.
NOTED IN WSW THAT HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 213 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH COVERS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
CONUS...WITH UPPER LOW OVER THE CO/KS BORDER. LOW CLOUDS BLANKET
THE CWA. RADAR SHOWS PRECIP BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO SOUTHERN
SD...AND CURRENT OBS ALONG THE NE/SD BORDER INDICATE RAIN. TEMPS
ARE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S...AND WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
NORTHEASTERLY.

UPPER LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH RAIN/SNOW NORTHWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL
KEEP PRECIP FROM SPREADING TOO MUCH PAST THE I-90 CORRIDOR. MEDIUM-
RANGE MODELS ARE OVERESTIMATING POTENTIAL SNOWFALL THIS
MORNING...AS ECM/GFS/NAM/SREF HAVE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW BY NOW IN
THE AREAS THAT ARE CURRENTLY DRY OR RECEIVING RAIN. LATEST HRRR
RUN SHOWS HARDLY ANY SNOW FOR SOUTHWESTERN SD...WITH ABOUT AN INCH
IN THE HILLS. EVEN THE NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ALL
PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN...WITH LOW-LEVEL TEMPS TOO WARM TO SUPPORT
SNOW. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DYNAMIC COOLING AND WET-
BULB EFFECTS TO OVERCOME THE WARM SURFACE WITH A QUICK FEW INCHES
OF SNOW THIS MORNING...SO WILL LET ADVISORY CONTINUE FOR NOW.
BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
SD THIS AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW TO THE SOUTH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH AND THE BLACK HILLS TO THE LOWER
50S FARTHER NORTH.

PRECIP MOVES OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SINKS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FOR
SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S...STARTING A WARMING TREND FOR NEXT
WEEK.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 213 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE COMING WEEK. THIS WILL
BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS. NEXT UPPER LOW SHIFTS INTO
WESTERN CONUS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN TRACKS INTO THE
PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND. COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING CHANCES
OF RAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 213 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

MVFR/LCL IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY. RAIN/SNOW WILL
SPREAD INTO THE AREA TODAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SOME
MVFR/IFR VSBY WITH THE PRECIPITATION. CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY FOR
     SDZ041-042-044-047.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POJORLIE
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7




000
FXUS65 KCYS 301011
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
411 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE TODAY PERIOD AS SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
ACROSS THE AREA. THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION TREND IS DECREASING
BASED ON RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. GENERALLY EXPECTING THIS
TREND TO CONTINUE WITH LIGHT SNOW OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SNOW ENDING ACROSS THE WEST AND
NORTH THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY HIGHER SNOW
RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE MORNING MAINLY OVER
THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. OF COURSE CHADRON IS STILL
REPORTING RAIN...SO AS EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BE LARGELY
ELEVATION DRIVEN AND THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH TODAY. IN
FACT SNOW WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER TO RAIN ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRAKSA PANHANDLE BY THIS
AFTERNOON.

BASED ON ASOS OBSERVATIONS...THE NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE IN LAGER
PART BEEN PRODUCING TOO MUCH PRECIPITATION WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM.
THE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH TODAY. THEREFORE
LOWERED TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST FROM THIS
STORM SYSTEM. MAY SEE SOME ACCUMULATIONS OVER 6 INCHES ACROSS THE
PINE RIDGE AND OTHER RIDGE TOPS. EVEN SHOULD SOME LOCALIZED PLACES
COME IN WITH HIGHER SNOW TOTALS...THE OVERALL IMPACTS WILL BE
MINIMAL. AT THIS TIME MOST ROADS ACROSS THE AREA ARE SLUSHY TO
SNOW COVERED. BY MID MORNING THE LATE APRIL SUN WILL WARM THE
ROADS ENOUGH TO MELT MOST ALL SNOW OFF OF THE ROADS. THEREFORE THE
MAIN TRAVEL CONCERNS WILL BE THROUGH MID TO LATE THIS MORNING.
MOST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TODAY WILL BE ON GRASSY AND OTHER
ELEVATED SURFACES. WINDS WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR TODAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 OVER MUCH OF THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TODAY BUT CONSIDERING THE SNOW WILL BE WET AND
STICKY...BLOWING SNOW WILL NOT OCCUR.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

A FEW DAYS RESPITE FROM THE COOL AND WET WEATHER IN THE TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY TIME PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGING LOOKS TO BE OVER THE
CWA IN AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN FEATURING UPPER LOWS OFF THE WEST
COAST AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL BRING WARMER
TEMPS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH MAX TEMPS GETTING CLOSE TO OR
EXCEEDING 70 OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS WEDS THROUGH THURSDAY. CHANGES
BEGIN ON FRIDAY AS THE OVERALL PATTERN SHIFTS EAST AND THE WESTERN
UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE EXTREME SW CONUS. MOISTURE SHOULD
INCREASE OVER THE CWA FRIDAY WITH A DECENT DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW
OVER THE AREA SO SHOULD SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR PCPN AT THAT
TIME.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED. WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW.  SLOW IMPROVEMENT
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY BUT STILL LIKELY TO BE MAINLY MVFR CIGS
THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

A COLD SPRING STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY WITH SOME RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS INTO THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEK AHEAD ALONG WITH
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ101-
     102-106>108-118-119.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ116-117.

NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ002-
     003-019>021-054-055-095-096.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...SML




000
FXUS65 KRIW 300909
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
309 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

FINALLY SOME HOPE FOR SOME DRIER AND MORE SPRINGLIKE WEATHER IS ON
THE WAY. HOWEVER...WE HAVE TO GET THROUGH ONE TO ONE AND A HALF MORE
DAYS OF SOUP BEFORE WE GET THERE.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW SPINNING OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL CONTINUE
TO WRAP MOISTURE BACK INTO CENTRAL WYOMING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
MORE OF THE SAME WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. WITH THE SOUTHEAST FLOW...THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL FALL
ALONG THE EAST TO NORTHEAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS AND
PLACES LIKE THE UPPER WIND RIVER BASIN. AS FOR THE ADVISORIES...WE
WILL LEAVE THEM UP. ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WOULD REACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA...IMPACTS MAY BE MINIMAL FOR THE FOLLOWING REASONS. THE AIR
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT TERRIBLY COLD WITH MOST OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE FREEZING. THIS COMBINED
WITH THE STRONG LATE APRIL SUN WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR SNOW TO
ACCUMULATE AT TIMES UNLESS THE RATE IS HEAVY...ESPECIALLY ON ROADS
AND OTHER PAVED SURFACES. THIS COULD BE A SITUATION WHERE THERE
COULD BE 3 TO 5 INCHES ON THE GRASS AND CAR TOPS WHILE THE ROADS ARE
ONLY WET TO SLUSHY IN SPOTS. IN ADDITION...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE TIME IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...THE SNOW
WILL LIKELY MIX WITH RAIN AND SNOW AT TIMES. THE BIGGEST TIMES OF
CONCERN WOULD BE UNTIL AROUND 9 AM THIS MORNING AND AFTER 8 PM
TONIGHT AFTER THE SUN GOES DOWN. THE MODELS HAVE COME IN BETTER
AGREEMENT IN ENDING THE STEADY PRECIPITATION BY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH ONLY A SMALL
CHANCE OF SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS. AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTH...EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR A RETURN APPEARANCE OF THAT YELLOW ORB
IN THE SKY...WHAT IS THAT THING CALLED?  OH...THE SUN. MANY AREAS
HAVE NOT SEEN IT IN SO LONG I FORGOT WHAT IT WAS CALLED. SINCE IT
HAS TAKEN LONGER TO CLEAR THAT THE MODELS HAVE INDICATED...WE KEPT
THINGS CLOUDIER WITH THE REASONING THAT IF IT GETS SUNNIER AND
WARMER...MOST PEOPLE WILL BE HAPPY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN
THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS HOWEVER.

MONDAY AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THE NICER DAYS THAT WE HAVE
HAD IN A WHILE. AT THIS POINT...THE ONLY PLACE WITH THE CHANCE OF A
FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE OVER THE FAR SOUTH WITH SOME
MOISTURE GETTING THROWN NORTHWARD FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. BUT EVEN HERE...THEY LOOK FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE AS WELL WITH MORE SUNSHINE.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE WEST
THURSDAY AND INTO CENTRAL WYOMING FRIDAY.  CLOUDY AND COOLER WEATHER
WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

DISCUSSION...BLOCKY PATTERN WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE ROCKIES...PACIFIC TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST BEGIN THIS PERIOD
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  SOME MOISTURE AND SLIGHT INSTABILITY OVER
THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS...OTHERWISE
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND
BASINS IN THE 60S AND 70S WILL BE THE RULE.

UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.  WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF A KEMMERER-
DUBOIS-POWELL LINE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.  WARM SOUTH WIND WILL
BRING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE DIVIDE WITH A FEW
NEAR 80F READINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER BASINS.

ECMWF IS INITIALLY SLOWER THAN GFS BRINGING SW LOW INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT ECMWF THEN ACCELERATES
UPPER LOW INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY 00Z SUNDAY WHILE GFS SHOWS
MORE OF A REX BLOCK SETTING UP OVER THE ROCKIES WITH UPPER LOW
REMAINING IN THE FOUR CORNERS AREA.  THE SLOWER SOLUTION...GFS IN
THIS CASE...USUALLY WINS OUT WITH A SW LOW AND STRONG DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING.


&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...KJAC/KRKS/KPNA/KBPI AIRPORTS

ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WEST UNTIL 15Z WITH SOME
MVFR CIGS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN WY THROUGH THE
MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. AREAS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ALONG WITH PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION.
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TO ISOLATED ACTIVITY BY 06Z SUNDAY. HOWEVER
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.

EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...KCPR/KCOD/KRIW/KWRL/KLND AIRPORTS

PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. FAR NORTHERN
WY WILL SEE LESS RAIN COVERAGE TODAY. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
OVER MOST OF THE REGION. MOUNTAINS WILL BE FREQUENTLY OBSCURED.
THE RAIN AND SNOW WILL DECREASE AFTER 00Z. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS
WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

FIRE DANGER SHOULD REMAIN LOW INTO THE WEEKEND AS EASTERLY FLOW
KEEPS TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY ON THE
HIGH SIDE. MANY AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN WYOMING WILL HAVE A
GOOD CHANCE OF A WETTING RAIN TODAY WITH PERIODS OF MIXED RAIN AND
SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL BEGIN A DRYING
TREND SUNDAY AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT MDT
TONIGHT FOR WYZ002-011-015>020-022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS




000
FXUS65 KRIW 300909
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
309 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

FINALLY SOME HOPE FOR SOME DRIER AND MORE SPRINGLIKE WEATHER IS ON
THE WAY. HOWEVER...WE HAVE TO GET THROUGH ONE TO ONE AND A HALF MORE
DAYS OF SOUP BEFORE WE GET THERE.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW SPINNING OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL CONTINUE
TO WRAP MOISTURE BACK INTO CENTRAL WYOMING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
MORE OF THE SAME WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. WITH THE SOUTHEAST FLOW...THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL FALL
ALONG THE EAST TO NORTHEAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS AND
PLACES LIKE THE UPPER WIND RIVER BASIN. AS FOR THE ADVISORIES...WE
WILL LEAVE THEM UP. ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WOULD REACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA...IMPACTS MAY BE MINIMAL FOR THE FOLLOWING REASONS. THE AIR
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT TERRIBLY COLD WITH MOST OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE FREEZING. THIS COMBINED
WITH THE STRONG LATE APRIL SUN WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR SNOW TO
ACCUMULATE AT TIMES UNLESS THE RATE IS HEAVY...ESPECIALLY ON ROADS
AND OTHER PAVED SURFACES. THIS COULD BE A SITUATION WHERE THERE
COULD BE 3 TO 5 INCHES ON THE GRASS AND CAR TOPS WHILE THE ROADS ARE
ONLY WET TO SLUSHY IN SPOTS. IN ADDITION...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE TIME IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...THE SNOW
WILL LIKELY MIX WITH RAIN AND SNOW AT TIMES. THE BIGGEST TIMES OF
CONCERN WOULD BE UNTIL AROUND 9 AM THIS MORNING AND AFTER 8 PM
TONIGHT AFTER THE SUN GOES DOWN. THE MODELS HAVE COME IN BETTER
AGREEMENT IN ENDING THE STEADY PRECIPITATION BY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH ONLY A SMALL
CHANCE OF SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS. AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTH...EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR A RETURN APPEARANCE OF THAT YELLOW ORB
IN THE SKY...WHAT IS THAT THING CALLED?  OH...THE SUN. MANY AREAS
HAVE NOT SEEN IT IN SO LONG I FORGOT WHAT IT WAS CALLED. SINCE IT
HAS TAKEN LONGER TO CLEAR THAT THE MODELS HAVE INDICATED...WE KEPT
THINGS CLOUDIER WITH THE REASONING THAT IF IT GETS SUNNIER AND
WARMER...MOST PEOPLE WILL BE HAPPY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN
THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS HOWEVER.

MONDAY AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THE NICER DAYS THAT WE HAVE
HAD IN A WHILE. AT THIS POINT...THE ONLY PLACE WITH THE CHANCE OF A
FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE OVER THE FAR SOUTH WITH SOME
MOISTURE GETTING THROWN NORTHWARD FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. BUT EVEN HERE...THEY LOOK FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE AS WELL WITH MORE SUNSHINE.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE WEST
THURSDAY AND INTO CENTRAL WYOMING FRIDAY.  CLOUDY AND COOLER WEATHER
WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

DISCUSSION...BLOCKY PATTERN WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE ROCKIES...PACIFIC TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST BEGIN THIS PERIOD
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  SOME MOISTURE AND SLIGHT INSTABILITY OVER
THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS...OTHERWISE
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND
BASINS IN THE 60S AND 70S WILL BE THE RULE.

UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.  WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF A KEMMERER-
DUBOIS-POWELL LINE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.  WARM SOUTH WIND WILL
BRING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE DIVIDE WITH A FEW
NEAR 80F READINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER BASINS.

ECMWF IS INITIALLY SLOWER THAN GFS BRINGING SW LOW INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT ECMWF THEN ACCELERATES
UPPER LOW INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY 00Z SUNDAY WHILE GFS SHOWS
MORE OF A REX BLOCK SETTING UP OVER THE ROCKIES WITH UPPER LOW
REMAINING IN THE FOUR CORNERS AREA.  THE SLOWER SOLUTION...GFS IN
THIS CASE...USUALLY WINS OUT WITH A SW LOW AND STRONG DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING.


&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...KJAC/KRKS/KPNA/KBPI AIRPORTS

ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WEST UNTIL 15Z WITH SOME
MVFR CIGS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN WY THROUGH THE
MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. AREAS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ALONG WITH PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION.
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TO ISOLATED ACTIVITY BY 06Z SUNDAY. HOWEVER
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.

EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...KCPR/KCOD/KRIW/KWRL/KLND AIRPORTS

PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. FAR NORTHERN
WY WILL SEE LESS RAIN COVERAGE TODAY. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
OVER MOST OF THE REGION. MOUNTAINS WILL BE FREQUENTLY OBSCURED.
THE RAIN AND SNOW WILL DECREASE AFTER 00Z. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS
WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

FIRE DANGER SHOULD REMAIN LOW INTO THE WEEKEND AS EASTERLY FLOW
KEEPS TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY ON THE
HIGH SIDE. MANY AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN WYOMING WILL HAVE A
GOOD CHANCE OF A WETTING RAIN TODAY WITH PERIODS OF MIXED RAIN AND
SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL BEGIN A DRYING
TREND SUNDAY AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT MDT
TONIGHT FOR WYZ002-011-015>020-022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS




000
FXUS63 KUNR 300816
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
216 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 213 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH COVERS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
CONUS...WITH UPPER LOW OVER THE CO/KS BORDER. LOW CLOUDS BLANKET
THE CWA. RADAR SHOWS PRECIP BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO SOUTHERN
SD...AND CURRENT OBS ALONG THE NE/SD BORDER INDICATE RAIN. TEMPS
ARE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S...AND WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
NORTHEASTERLY.

UPPER LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH RAIN/SNOW NORTHWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL
KEEP PRECIP FROM SPREADING TOO MUCH PAST THE I-90 CORRIDOR. MEDIUM-
RANGE MODELS ARE OVERESTIMATING POTENTIAL SNOWFALL THIS
MORNING...AS ECM/GFS/NAM/SREF HAVE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW BY NOW IN
THE AREAS THAT ARE CURRENTLY DRY OR RECEIVING RAIN. LATEST HRRR
RUN SHOWS HARDLY ANY SNOW FOR SOUTHWESTERN SD...WITH ABOUT AN INCH
IN THE HILLS. EVEN THE NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ALL
PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN...WITH LOW-LEVEL TEMPS TOO WARM TO SUPPORT
SNOW. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DYNAMIC COOLING AND WET-
BULB EFFECTS TO OVERCOME THE WARM SURFACE WITH A QUICK FEW INCHES
OF SNOW THIS MORNING...SO WILL LET ADVISORY CONTINUE FOR NOW.
BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
SD THIS AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW TO THE SOUTH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH AND THE BLACK HILLS TO THE LOWER
50S FARTHER NORTH.

PRECIP MOVES OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SINKS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FOR
SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S...STARTING A WARMING TREND FOR NEXT
WEEK.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 213 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE COMING WEEK. THIS WILL
BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS. NEXT UPPER LOW SHIFTS INTO
WESTERN CONUS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN TRACKS INTO THE
PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND. COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING CHANCES
OF RAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 213 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

MVFR/LCL IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY. RAIN/SNOW WILL
SPREAD INTO THE AREA TODAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SOME
MVFR/IFR VSBY WITH THE PRECIPITATION. CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY FOR
     SDZ024-027>029-041-042-044-047.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7




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