Home > Products > State Listing > Wyoming Data
Latest:
 AFDCYS |  AFDRIW |  AFDUNR |
  [top]

000
FXUS65 KRIW 251747
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1150 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

IMAGERY SHOWS FLAT RIDGING CONTINUING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
WITH TROFFING WELL OFF TO THE WEST AND EAST. STRONG JET SURROUNDS
THE WRN AND NRN PORTIONS OF WY. AT THE SFC...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING
FROM THE NW FA...ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE ABSAROKAS AND OFF TO THE
ESE THRU NATRONA COUNTY AND POINTS FURTHER EAST.

OVERALL A BIT SLOWER AND DRIER EVENT SHAPING UP TODAY THRU MONDAY
WHEN COMPARED TO WHAT IT LOOKED LIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS. STRONG FLOW
ALOFT...WARM LL TEMPS WITH GOOD LAPSE RATES UP THRU 600 MB WILL
ALLOW FOR INCREASED WIND TODAY AND SUNDAY. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL COME
UP ACROSS THE SRN/SERN WIND CORRIDOR...WHILE NOCTURNAL WINDS
INCREASE DRAMATICALLY OVER/NEAR THE LEE PORTIONS OF THE MAJOR
MOUNTAIN RANGES...WITH PERHAPS SOME OCCASIONAL SPILL INTO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. TONIGHT... OVER/NEAR THE NORTHERN ABSAROKAS AND ADJACENT
CODY FOOTHILLS...INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR MOUNTAIN WAVE
PRODUCTION WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT...LASTING THRU SUNDAY MORNING. A
HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH THIS IN MIND...WITH WARNING
CONDITIONS OCCURRING BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND LASTING UNTIL AROUND
NOON ON SUNDAY. EXTENDED WARNING BY 3 HRS. GOOD LOW TO MID LVL
THERMAL AND OMEGA GRADS TONIGHT INDICATE MAX MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTION
BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY...THE UPR LVLS TRANSITION
INTO A MORE SOUTHWEST UPR FLOW PATTERN TODAY THRU SUNDAY WITH THE
WRN TROF RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE REGION.  OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...MOISTURE WILL START TO FEED INTO THE WRN FA ALONG WITH
INCREASING VORTICITY AND LIFT. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THRU
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING SHRA/SHSN TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WRN FA THRU THE REST OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY....THEN THE
NORTHERN ZONES MONDAY. ATTM...LIMITED MOISTURE AND DEEP RELATIVELY
WARM TEMPS WILL KEEP THE SNOW ON THE WET AND ON THE LOWER END OF THE
ACCUMULATION SCALE...MAXING OUT AT LESS THAN 6 INCHES OVER THE
HIGHEST PEAKS FOR THE MOST PART OVR A 30 HR PERIOD THRU MON MORNING.
DOWNSLOPE WIND ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL KEEP MOST
PRECIP AWAY DURING THE SAME PERIOD OF TIME. FAIRLY NICE DAY ACROSS
MOST OF THE SRN 3/4S OF THE CWA MONDAY...WITH SKIES CLEARING QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

TUESDAY WILL BE DRY WITH A NW FLOW ALOFT. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL IMPACT NW WY LATE TUE NIGHT AND THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY INTO WED EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THE
MODELS DIFFER NEXT SATURDAY WITH TIMING OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.
THE GFS MODEL BRINGS IN A CHANCE OF PRECIP TO THE WEST AND A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. CENTRAL AND EAST WOULD BE DRY...BREEZY AND MILD.
THE ECMWF MODEL KEEPS IT DRY ALL AREAS NEXT SATURDAY WITH BREEZY
AREAS. I WILL SIDE WITH THE ECMWF AND KEEP IT DRY NEXT SATURDAY. AS
FOR TEMPS...SEASONABLY MILD TUE THROUGH THURS...THEN ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS NEXT FRI AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS UNDER SKC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z. BREEZY
TO WINDY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND IN TYPICAL AREAS...WITH AN APPROACH
OF A STORM SYSTEM. AFTER 00Z...AREAS WEST OF THE DIVIDE WILL SEE
QUICKLY INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE AFTER 03Z. MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL BECOME OBSCURED OVER THE FAR
WEST BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR IN OR
NEAR THIS CONVECTION.  HOWEVER OF MORE CONCERN...WILL BE
CONSIDERABLE MOUNTAIN TURBULENCE TONIGHT...AS WELL AS LLWS ON THE
LEE SIDE OF MOUNTAIN RANGES...ESPECIALLY AT COD AND LND.

PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON
TURBULENCE FORECASTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

FIRE DANGER WILL BE ELEVATED TODAY...MAINLY IN THE LEE OF THE
MOUNTAIN RANGES OVER THE BASINS EAST OF THE DIVIDE AS MINIMUM RH VALUES
ACROSS THESE AREAS FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS WHILE WINDS
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO
TO 50 MPH AT TIMES. SUNDAY...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST AND
NORTH...LOWERING FIRE DANGER ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
WYZ002-003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAUN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN










  [top]

000
FXUS65 KCYS 251722
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1122 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1110 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

LATE MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED A DEEP LAYER RIDGE AXIS
FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS.
A DRY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DOMINATED THE CWA WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS
FROM THE NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH NORTHEAST WY. TEMPERATURES
WERE WARMING QUICKLY UNDER FULL INSOLATION. MODIFIED 12Z AREA
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S THIS AFTERNOON. SOME DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS TO BE
BROKEN TODAY INCLUDE:

CHEYENNE 76 (2007)
LARAMIE 69 (2007)
RAWLINS 68 (1999)
ALLIANCE 79 (1959)
SCOTTSBLUFF 83 (1927)
SIDNEY 81 (2007)

ZONES WERE UPDATED FOR MINOR FIRST PERIOD WIND ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

CLEAR...DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES BEING OBSERVED OVER THE AREA THIS
MORNING...IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO WARM UP
SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY...WE SHOULD BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WHEN WE
HAD A CIRRUS SHIELD OVER THE AREA. IN FACT...700MB TEMPERATURES
2-3 DEGREES C WARMER TODAY OVER YESTERDAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
OF 20-22C. MOST AREAS ARE GOING TO SEE TEMPERATURES TODAY 20 TO 25
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT WEST TODAY AS 700MB
WINDS OFF THE GFS INCREASE TO 35 TO 40KTS ACROSS CARBON COUNTY.

STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY...DAY SHIFT MAY WANT TO CONSIDER A
HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE ARLINGTON AREA...POSSIBLY VEDAUWOO AND
BORDEAUX. GFS 700MB WINDS INCREASE TO 50KTS FOR CARBON AND ALBANY
COUNTIES...MORE THAN ENOUGH FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 58 MPH AT THESE LOCATIONS. ONLY THING THAT HELD ME BACK
FROM ISSUING THE WATCH THIS MORNING WAS THAT THE 700MB CRAIG TO
CASPER GRADIENT FORECAST AT 45-50MTRS SUNDAY MORNING...DECREASING
THROUGH THE DAY.

WE START TO SEE SOME INCREASING MOISTURE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OUT
WEST...PARTICULARLY THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...SPREADING
ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING AND THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.. FOLLOWED ECMWF GUIDANCE ON
POPS...SO INCREASED CHANCES FOR AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTH BASED ON
THIS FORECAST. GFS ALSO SHOWING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD QPF FOR THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS WELL MONDAY MORNING...SO CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING FOR AT LEAST LOW END CHANCE POPS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

MONDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES SLOWLY EAST OF OUR
COUNTIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH OUR GRADIENTS RELAXING
OVERNIGHT AND CLOUD COVER DECREASING.

TUESDAY...BREEZY TO WINDY DAY WITH PROGGED SURFACE THROUGH 700 MB
GRADIENTS AND RATHER BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

WEDNESDAY...PROGRESSIVELY FAST MOVING POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD...THOUGH WITH MINIMAL LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK MEAGER. LITTLE
WARMER DAY PER PROGGED THICKNESSES.

THURSDAY...RIDGING ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD...THOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR
MOST LOCALES WITH COOLER NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
THE DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

FRIDAY...RELATIVELY MILD DAY FOR OUTDOOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACTIVITIES...INCLUDING TRICK OR TREATERS...AS RIDGING ALOFT HOLDS
FIRM WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S AND 60S...AND WITH
RELATIVELY LIMITED WINDS DUE TO PROGGED SURFACE THROUGH 700 MB
GRADIENTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH
ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVERHEAD. ONLY AVIATION HAZARD WILL BE
ELEVATED WIND GUSTS AT THE WYOMING TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. WINDS MAY GUST BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KT THIS
AFTERNOON AT KLAR/KRWL/KCYS. WINDS WILL RELAX AFTER 02Z BUT SHOULD
INCREASE AGAIN BY 15Z SUN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VERY DRY AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES FOR AREAS ALONG AND DIRECTLY EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY. LOOKING AT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES FALLING
TO AROUND 10 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON FOR FWZ 301...309 AND 310 AS
AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S.
FORTUNATELY...STRONGER WINDS STAY WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY
WHERE FUELS ARE NOT REPORTED READY. STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST.
COOL DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE HUMIDITIES AND GIVE SOME
AREAS CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAMSKI
SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...HAMMER



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KUNR 251721
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1121 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 334 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE SRN GREAT PLAINS WITH THE
MAIN AXIS EXTENDING TOWARD THE NRN ROCKIES...AHEAD OF A TROUGH
APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOW OVER THE NRN
PLAINS WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. RETURN FLOW
SETS UP TODAY WITH WARMER AIR MOVING BACK INTO NE WY INTO SW
SD...WHERE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA.

UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE NRN ROCKIES SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE
SLIDING INTO THE NRN PLAINS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL PUSH IN FROM
THE WEST DURING THE DAY WHILE THE THERMAL RIDGE PUSHES EWD. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WRN/CNTRL SD PLAINS...WHILE NE WY WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT AS THE STRONG TROUGH
CROSSES THE NRN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS TO
THE CWA SUN NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NE WY...THE NRN BLKHLS...AND NW
SD. OVERALL LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.


&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 334 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SOME LINGERING -SHRA EXPECTED ON
MONDAY IN WAKE OF THE CDFNT. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN REBUILD
THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND PERSIST THE REST OF THE WEEK...BRINGING
DRY WX AND TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...10







000
FXUS63 KUNR 251721
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1121 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 334 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE SRN GREAT PLAINS WITH THE
MAIN AXIS EXTENDING TOWARD THE NRN ROCKIES...AHEAD OF A TROUGH
APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOW OVER THE NRN
PLAINS WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. RETURN FLOW
SETS UP TODAY WITH WARMER AIR MOVING BACK INTO NE WY INTO SW
SD...WHERE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA.

UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE NRN ROCKIES SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE
SLIDING INTO THE NRN PLAINS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL PUSH IN FROM
THE WEST DURING THE DAY WHILE THE THERMAL RIDGE PUSHES EWD. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WRN/CNTRL SD PLAINS...WHILE NE WY WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT AS THE STRONG TROUGH
CROSSES THE NRN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS TO
THE CWA SUN NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NE WY...THE NRN BLKHLS...AND NW
SD. OVERALL LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.


&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 334 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SOME LINGERING -SHRA EXPECTED ON
MONDAY IN WAKE OF THE CDFNT. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN REBUILD
THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND PERSIST THE REST OF THE WEEK...BRINGING
DRY WX AND TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...10







000
FXUS65 KCYS 251720
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1120 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1110 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

LATE MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED A DEEP LAYER RIDGE AXIS
FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS.
A DRY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DOMINATED THE CWA WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS
FROM THE NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH NORTHEAST WY. TEMPERATURES
WERE WARMING QUICKLY UNDER FULL INSOLATION. MODIFIED 12Z AREA
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S THIS AFTERNOON. SOME DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS TO BE
BROKEN TODAY INCLUDE:

CHEYENNE 76 (2007)
LARAMIE 69 (2007)
RAWLINS 68 (1999)
ALLIANCE 79 (1959)
SCOTTSBLUFF 83 (1927)
SIDNEY 81 (2007)

ZONES WERE UPDATED FOR MINOR FIRST PERIOD WIND ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

CLEAR...DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES BEING OBSERVED OVER THE AREA THIS
MORNING...IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO WARM UP
SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY...WE SHOULD BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WHEN WE
HAD A CIRRUS SHIELD OVER THE AREA. IN FACT...700MB TEMPERATURES
2-3 DEGREES C WARMER TODAY OVER YESTERDAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
OF 20-22C. MOST AREAS ARE GOING TO SEE TEMPERATURES TODAY 20 TO 25
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT WEST TODAY AS 700MB
WINDS OFF THE GFS INCREASE TO 35 TO 40KTS ACROSS CARBON COUNTY.

STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY...DAY SHIFT MAY WANT TO CONSIDER A
HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE ARLINGTON AREA...POSSIBLY VEDAUWOO AND
BORDEAUX. GFS 700MB WINDS INCREASE TO 50KTS FOR CARBON AND ALBANY
COUNTIES...MORE THAN ENOUGH FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 58 MPH AT THESE LOCATIONS. ONLY THING THAT HELD ME BACK
FROM ISSUING THE WATCH THIS MORNING WAS THAT THE 700MB CRAIG TO
CASPER GRADIENT FORECAST AT 45-50MTRS SUNDAY MORNING...DECREASING
THROUGH THE DAY.

WE START TO SEE SOME INCREASING MOISTURE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OUT
WEST...PARTICULARLY THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...SPREADING
ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING AND THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.. FOLLOWED ECMWF GUIDANCE ON
POPS...SO INCREASED CHANCES FOR AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTH BASED ON
THIS FORECAST. GFS ALSO SHOWING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD QPF FOR THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS WELL MONDAY MORNING...SO CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING FOR AT LEAST LOW END CHANCE POPS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

MONDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES SLOWLY EAST OF OUR
COUNTIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH OUR GRADIENTS RELAXING
OVERNIGHT AND CLOUD COVER DECREASING.

TUESDAY...BREEZY TO WINDY DAY WITH PROGGED SURFACE THROUGH 700 MB
GRADIENTS AND RATHER BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

WEDNESDAY...PROGRESSIVELY FAST MOVING POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD...THOUGH WITH MINIMAL LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK MEAGER. LITTLE
WARMER DAY PER PROGGED THICKNESSES.

THURSDAY...RIDGING ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD...THOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR
MOST LOCALES WITH COOLER NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
THE DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

FRIDAY...RELATIVELY MILD DAY FOR OUTDOOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACTIVITIES...INCLUDING TRICK OR TREATERS...AS RIDGING ALOFT HOLDS
FIRM WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S AND 60S...AND WITH
RELATIVELY LIMITED WINDS DUE TO PROGGED SURFACE THROUGH 700 MB
GRADIENTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR. AT WYOMING AERODROMES...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTING
23 TO 32 KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WIND
DECREASING THIS EVENING. MINIMAL WIND GUSTS OVER THE NEBRASKA
AERODROMES.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VERY DRY AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES FOR AREAS ALONG AND DIRECTLY EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY. LOOKING AT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES FALLING
TO AROUND 10 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON FOR FWZ 301...309 AND 310 AS
AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S.
FORTUNATELY...STRONGER WINDS STAY WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY
WHERE FUELS ARE NOT REPORTED READY. STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST.
COOL DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE HUMIDITIES AND GIVE SOME
AREAS CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAMSKI
SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM/AVIATION...RUBIN




000
FXUS65 KCYS 251720
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1120 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1110 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

LATE MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED A DEEP LAYER RIDGE AXIS
FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS.
A DRY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DOMINATED THE CWA WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS
FROM THE NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH NORTHEAST WY. TEMPERATURES
WERE WARMING QUICKLY UNDER FULL INSOLATION. MODIFIED 12Z AREA
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S THIS AFTERNOON. SOME DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS TO BE
BROKEN TODAY INCLUDE:

CHEYENNE 76 (2007)
LARAMIE 69 (2007)
RAWLINS 68 (1999)
ALLIANCE 79 (1959)
SCOTTSBLUFF 83 (1927)
SIDNEY 81 (2007)

ZONES WERE UPDATED FOR MINOR FIRST PERIOD WIND ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

CLEAR...DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES BEING OBSERVED OVER THE AREA THIS
MORNING...IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO WARM UP
SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY...WE SHOULD BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WHEN WE
HAD A CIRRUS SHIELD OVER THE AREA. IN FACT...700MB TEMPERATURES
2-3 DEGREES C WARMER TODAY OVER YESTERDAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
OF 20-22C. MOST AREAS ARE GOING TO SEE TEMPERATURES TODAY 20 TO 25
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT WEST TODAY AS 700MB
WINDS OFF THE GFS INCREASE TO 35 TO 40KTS ACROSS CARBON COUNTY.

STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY...DAY SHIFT MAY WANT TO CONSIDER A
HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE ARLINGTON AREA...POSSIBLY VEDAUWOO AND
BORDEAUX. GFS 700MB WINDS INCREASE TO 50KTS FOR CARBON AND ALBANY
COUNTIES...MORE THAN ENOUGH FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 58 MPH AT THESE LOCATIONS. ONLY THING THAT HELD ME BACK
FROM ISSUING THE WATCH THIS MORNING WAS THAT THE 700MB CRAIG TO
CASPER GRADIENT FORECAST AT 45-50MTRS SUNDAY MORNING...DECREASING
THROUGH THE DAY.

WE START TO SEE SOME INCREASING MOISTURE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OUT
WEST...PARTICULARLY THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...SPREADING
ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING AND THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.. FOLLOWED ECMWF GUIDANCE ON
POPS...SO INCREASED CHANCES FOR AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTH BASED ON
THIS FORECAST. GFS ALSO SHOWING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD QPF FOR THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS WELL MONDAY MORNING...SO CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING FOR AT LEAST LOW END CHANCE POPS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

MONDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES SLOWLY EAST OF OUR
COUNTIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH OUR GRADIENTS RELAXING
OVERNIGHT AND CLOUD COVER DECREASING.

TUESDAY...BREEZY TO WINDY DAY WITH PROGGED SURFACE THROUGH 700 MB
GRADIENTS AND RATHER BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

WEDNESDAY...PROGRESSIVELY FAST MOVING POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD...THOUGH WITH MINIMAL LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK MEAGER. LITTLE
WARMER DAY PER PROGGED THICKNESSES.

THURSDAY...RIDGING ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD...THOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR
MOST LOCALES WITH COOLER NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
THE DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

FRIDAY...RELATIVELY MILD DAY FOR OUTDOOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACTIVITIES...INCLUDING TRICK OR TREATERS...AS RIDGING ALOFT HOLDS
FIRM WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S AND 60S...AND WITH
RELATIVELY LIMITED WINDS DUE TO PROGGED SURFACE THROUGH 700 MB
GRADIENTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR. AT WYOMING AERODROMES...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTING
23 TO 32 KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WIND
DECREASING THIS EVENING. MINIMAL WIND GUSTS OVER THE NEBRASKA
AERODROMES.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VERY DRY AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES FOR AREAS ALONG AND DIRECTLY EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY. LOOKING AT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES FALLING
TO AROUND 10 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON FOR FWZ 301...309 AND 310 AS
AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S.
FORTUNATELY...STRONGER WINDS STAY WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY
WHERE FUELS ARE NOT REPORTED READY. STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST.
COOL DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE HUMIDITIES AND GIVE SOME
AREAS CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAMSKI
SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM/AVIATION...RUBIN




000
FXUS65 KCYS 251156 CCA
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
553 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

CLEAR...DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES BEING OBSERVED OVER THE AREA THIS
MORNING...IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO WARM UP
SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY...WE SHOULD BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WHEN WE
HAD A CIRRUS SHIELD OVER THE AREA. IN FACT...700MB TEMPERATURES
2-3 DEGREES C WARMER TODAY OVER YESTERDAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
OF 20-22C. MOST AREAS ARE GOING TO SEE TEMPERATURES TODAY 20 TO 25
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT WEST TODAY AS 700MB
WINDS OFF THE GFS INCREASE TO 35 TO 40KTS ACROSS CARBON COUNTY.

STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY...DAY SHIFT MAY WANT TO CONSIDER A
HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE ARLINGTON AREA...POSSIBLY VEDAUWOO AND
BORDEAUX. GFS 700MB WINDS INCREASE TO 50KTS FOR CARBON AND ALBANY
COUNTIES...MORE THAN ENOUGH FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 58 MPH AT THESE LOCATIONS. ONLY THING THAT HELD ME BACK
FROM ISSUING THE WATCH THIS MORNING WAS THAT THE 700MB CRAIG TO
CASPER GRADIENT FORECAST AT 45-50MTRS SUNDAY MORNING...DECREASING
THROUGH THE DAY.

WE START TO SEE SOME INCREASING MOISTURE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OUT
WEST...PARTICULARLY THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...SPREADING
ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING AND THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.. FOLLOWED ECMWF GUIDANCE ON
POPS...SO INCREASED CHANCES FOR AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTH BASED ON
THIS FORECAST. GFS ALSO SHOWING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD QPF FOR THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS WELL MONDAY MORNING...SO CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING FOR AT LEAST LOW END CHANCE POPS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

MONDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES SLOWLY EAST OF OUR
COUNTIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH OUR GRADIENTS RELAXING
OVERNIGHT AND CLOUD COVER DECREASING.

TUESDAY...BREEZY TO WINDY DAY WITH PROGGED SURFACE THROUGH 700 MB
GRADIENTS AND RATHER BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

WEDNESDAY...PROGRESSIVELY FAST MOVING POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD...THOUGH WITH MINIMAL LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK MEAGER. LITTLE
WARMER DAY PER PROGGED THICKNESSES.

THURSDAY...RIDGING ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD...THOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR
MOST LOCALES WITH COOLER NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
THE DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

FRIDAY...RELATIVELY MILD DAY FOR OUTDOOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACTIVITIES...INCLUDING TRICK OR TREATERS...AS RIDGING ALOFT HOLDS
FIRM WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S AND 60S...AND WITH
RELATIVELY LIMITED WINDS DUE TO PROGGED SURFACE THROUGH 700 MB
GRADIENTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR. AT WYOMING AERODROMES...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTING
23 TO 32 KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WIND
DECREASING THIS EVENING. MINIMAL WIND GUSTS OVER THE NEBRASKA
AERODROMES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VERY DRY AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES FOR AREAS ALONG AND DIRECTLY EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY. LOOKING AT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES FALLING
TO AROUND 10 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON FOR FWZ 301...309 AND 310 AS
AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S.
FORTUNATELY...STRONGER WINDS STAY WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY
WHERE FUELS ARE NOT REPORTED READY. STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST.
COOL DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE HUMIDITIES AND GIVE SOME
AREAS CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM/AVIATION...RUBIN




000
FXUS65 KCYS 251156 CCA
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
553 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

CLEAR...DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES BEING OBSERVED OVER THE AREA THIS
MORNING...IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO WARM UP
SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY...WE SHOULD BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WHEN WE
HAD A CIRRUS SHIELD OVER THE AREA. IN FACT...700MB TEMPERATURES
2-3 DEGREES C WARMER TODAY OVER YESTERDAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
OF 20-22C. MOST AREAS ARE GOING TO SEE TEMPERATURES TODAY 20 TO 25
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT WEST TODAY AS 700MB
WINDS OFF THE GFS INCREASE TO 35 TO 40KTS ACROSS CARBON COUNTY.

STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY...DAY SHIFT MAY WANT TO CONSIDER A
HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE ARLINGTON AREA...POSSIBLY VEDAUWOO AND
BORDEAUX. GFS 700MB WINDS INCREASE TO 50KTS FOR CARBON AND ALBANY
COUNTIES...MORE THAN ENOUGH FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 58 MPH AT THESE LOCATIONS. ONLY THING THAT HELD ME BACK
FROM ISSUING THE WATCH THIS MORNING WAS THAT THE 700MB CRAIG TO
CASPER GRADIENT FORECAST AT 45-50MTRS SUNDAY MORNING...DECREASING
THROUGH THE DAY.

WE START TO SEE SOME INCREASING MOISTURE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OUT
WEST...PARTICULARLY THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...SPREADING
ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING AND THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.. FOLLOWED ECMWF GUIDANCE ON
POPS...SO INCREASED CHANCES FOR AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTH BASED ON
THIS FORECAST. GFS ALSO SHOWING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD QPF FOR THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS WELL MONDAY MORNING...SO CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING FOR AT LEAST LOW END CHANCE POPS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

MONDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES SLOWLY EAST OF OUR
COUNTIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH OUR GRADIENTS RELAXING
OVERNIGHT AND CLOUD COVER DECREASING.

TUESDAY...BREEZY TO WINDY DAY WITH PROGGED SURFACE THROUGH 700 MB
GRADIENTS AND RATHER BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

WEDNESDAY...PROGRESSIVELY FAST MOVING POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD...THOUGH WITH MINIMAL LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK MEAGER. LITTLE
WARMER DAY PER PROGGED THICKNESSES.

THURSDAY...RIDGING ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD...THOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR
MOST LOCALES WITH COOLER NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
THE DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

FRIDAY...RELATIVELY MILD DAY FOR OUTDOOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACTIVITIES...INCLUDING TRICK OR TREATERS...AS RIDGING ALOFT HOLDS
FIRM WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S AND 60S...AND WITH
RELATIVELY LIMITED WINDS DUE TO PROGGED SURFACE THROUGH 700 MB
GRADIENTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR. AT WYOMING AERODROMES...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTING
23 TO 32 KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WIND
DECREASING THIS EVENING. MINIMAL WIND GUSTS OVER THE NEBRASKA
AERODROMES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VERY DRY AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES FOR AREAS ALONG AND DIRECTLY EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY. LOOKING AT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES FALLING
TO AROUND 10 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON FOR FWZ 301...309 AND 310 AS
AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S.
FORTUNATELY...STRONGER WINDS STAY WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY
WHERE FUELS ARE NOT REPORTED READY. STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST.
COOL DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE HUMIDITIES AND GIVE SOME
AREAS CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM/AVIATION...RUBIN




000
FXUS65 KCYS 251153
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
553 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

CLEAR...DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES BEING OBSERVED OVER THE AREA THIS
MORNING...IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO WARM UP
SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY...WE SHOULD BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WHEN WE
HAD A CIRRUS SHIELD OVER THE AREA. IN FACT...700MB TEMPERATURES
2-3 DEGREES C WARMER TODAY OVER YESTERDAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
OF 20-22C. MOST AREAS ARE GOING TO SEE TEMPERATURES TODAY 20 TO 25
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT WEST TODAY AS 700MB
WINDS OFF THE GFS INCREASE TO 35 TO 40KTS ACROSS CARBON COUNTY.

STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY...DAY SHIFT MAY WANT TO CONSIDER A
HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE ARLINGTON AREA...POSSIBLY VEDAUWOO AND
BORDEAUX. GFS 700MB WINDS INCREASE TO 50KTS FOR CARBON AND ALBANY
COUNTIES...MORE THAN ENOUGH FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 58 MPH AT THESE LOCATIONS. ONLY THING THAT HELD ME BACK
FROM ISSUING THE WATCH THIS MORNING WAS THAT THE 700MB CRAIG TO
CASPER GRADIENT FORECAST AT 45-50MTRS SUNDAY MORNING...DECREASING
THROUGH THE DAY.

WE START TO SEE SOME INCREASING MOISTURE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OUT
WEST...PARTICULARLY THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...SPREADING
ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING AND THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.. FOLLOWED ECMWF GUIDANCE ON
POPS...SO INCREASED CHANCES FOR AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTH BASED ON
THIS FORECAST. GFS ALSO SHOWING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD QPF FOR THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS WELL MONDAY MORNING...SO CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING FOR AT LEAST LOW END CHANCE POPS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

MONDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES SLOWLY EAST OF OUR
COUNTIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH OUR GRADIENTS RELAXING
OVERNIGHT AND CLOUD COVER DECREASING.

TUESDAY...BREEZY TO WINDY DAY WITH PROGGED SURFACE THROUGH 700 MB
GRADIENTS AND RATHER BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

WEDNESDAY...PROGRESSIVELY FAST MOVING POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD...THOUGH WITH MINIMAL LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK MEAGER. LITTLE
WARMER DAY PER PROGGED THICKNESSES.

THURSDAY...RIDGING ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD...THOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR
MOST LOCALES WITH COOLER NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
THE DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

FRIDAY...RELATIVELY MILD DAY FOR OUTDOOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACTIVITIES...INCLUDING TRICK OR TREATERS...AS RIDGING ALOFT HOLDS
FIRM WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S AND 60S...AND WITH
RELATIVELY LIMITED WINDS DUE TO PROGGED SURFACE THROUGH 700 MB
GRADIENTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR. AT WYOMING AERODROMES...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTING
23 TO 32 KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WIND
DECREASING THIS EVENING. MINIMAL WIND GUSTS OVER THE NEBRASKA
AERODROMES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VERY DRY AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES FOR AREAS ALONG AND DIRECTLY EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY. LOOKING AT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES FALLING
TO AROUND 10 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON FOR FWZ 301...309 AND 310 AS
AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S.
FORTUNATELY...STRONGER WINDS STAY WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY
WHERE FUELS ARE NOT REPORTED READY. STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST.
COOL DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE HUMIDITIES AND GIVE SOME
AREAS CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...SAR




000
FXUS65 KCYS 251153
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
553 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

CLEAR...DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES BEING OBSERVED OVER THE AREA THIS
MORNING...IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO WARM UP
SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY...WE SHOULD BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WHEN WE
HAD A CIRRUS SHIELD OVER THE AREA. IN FACT...700MB TEMPERATURES
2-3 DEGREES C WARMER TODAY OVER YESTERDAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
OF 20-22C. MOST AREAS ARE GOING TO SEE TEMPERATURES TODAY 20 TO 25
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT WEST TODAY AS 700MB
WINDS OFF THE GFS INCREASE TO 35 TO 40KTS ACROSS CARBON COUNTY.

STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY...DAY SHIFT MAY WANT TO CONSIDER A
HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE ARLINGTON AREA...POSSIBLY VEDAUWOO AND
BORDEAUX. GFS 700MB WINDS INCREASE TO 50KTS FOR CARBON AND ALBANY
COUNTIES...MORE THAN ENOUGH FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 58 MPH AT THESE LOCATIONS. ONLY THING THAT HELD ME BACK
FROM ISSUING THE WATCH THIS MORNING WAS THAT THE 700MB CRAIG TO
CASPER GRADIENT FORECAST AT 45-50MTRS SUNDAY MORNING...DECREASING
THROUGH THE DAY.

WE START TO SEE SOME INCREASING MOISTURE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OUT
WEST...PARTICULARLY THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...SPREADING
ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING AND THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.. FOLLOWED ECMWF GUIDANCE ON
POPS...SO INCREASED CHANCES FOR AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTH BASED ON
THIS FORECAST. GFS ALSO SHOWING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD QPF FOR THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS WELL MONDAY MORNING...SO CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING FOR AT LEAST LOW END CHANCE POPS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

MONDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES SLOWLY EAST OF OUR
COUNTIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH OUR GRADIENTS RELAXING
OVERNIGHT AND CLOUD COVER DECREASING.

TUESDAY...BREEZY TO WINDY DAY WITH PROGGED SURFACE THROUGH 700 MB
GRADIENTS AND RATHER BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

WEDNESDAY...PROGRESSIVELY FAST MOVING POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD...THOUGH WITH MINIMAL LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK MEAGER. LITTLE
WARMER DAY PER PROGGED THICKNESSES.

THURSDAY...RIDGING ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD...THOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR
MOST LOCALES WITH COOLER NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
THE DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

FRIDAY...RELATIVELY MILD DAY FOR OUTDOOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACTIVITIES...INCLUDING TRICK OR TREATERS...AS RIDGING ALOFT HOLDS
FIRM WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S AND 60S...AND WITH
RELATIVELY LIMITED WINDS DUE TO PROGGED SURFACE THROUGH 700 MB
GRADIENTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR. AT WYOMING AERODROMES...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTING
23 TO 32 KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WIND
DECREASING THIS EVENING. MINIMAL WIND GUSTS OVER THE NEBRASKA
AERODROMES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VERY DRY AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES FOR AREAS ALONG AND DIRECTLY EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY. LOOKING AT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES FALLING
TO AROUND 10 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON FOR FWZ 301...309 AND 310 AS
AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S.
FORTUNATELY...STRONGER WINDS STAY WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY
WHERE FUELS ARE NOT REPORTED READY. STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST.
COOL DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE HUMIDITIES AND GIVE SOME
AREAS CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...SAR




000
FXUS63 KUNR 250937
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
337 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 334 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE SRN GREAT PLAINS WITH THE
MAIN AXIS EXTENDING TOWARD THE NRN ROCKIES...AHEAD OF A TROUGH
APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOW OVER THE NRN
PLAINS WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. RETURN FLOW
SETS UP TODAY WITH WARMER AIR MOVING BACK INTO NE WY INTO SW
SD...WHERE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA.

UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE NRN ROCKIES SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE
SLIDING INTO THE NRN PLAINS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL PUSH IN FROM
THE WEST DURING THE DAY WHILE THE THERMAL RIDGE PUSHES EWD. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WRN/CNTRL SD PLAINS...WHILE NE WY WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT AS THE STRONG TROUGH
CROSSES THE NRN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS TO
THE CWA SUN NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NE WY...THE NRN BLKHLS...AND NW
SD. OVERALL LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 334 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SOME LINGERING -SHRA EXPECTED ON
MONDAY IN WAKE OF THE CDFNT. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN REBUILD
THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND PERSIST THE REST OF THE WEEK...BRINGING
DRY WX AND TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 334 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON







000
FXUS65 KRIW 250924
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
324 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

IMAGERY SHOWS FLAT RIDGING CONTINUING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
WITH TROFFING WELL OFF TO THE WEST AND EAST. STRONG JET SURROUNDS
THE WRN AND NRN PORTIONS OF WY. AT THE SFC...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING
FROM THE NW FA...ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE ABSAROKAS AND OFF TO THE
ESE THRU NATRONA COUNTY AND POINTS FURTHER EAST.

OVERALL A BIT SLOWER AND DRIER EVENT SHAPING UP TODAY THRU MONDAY
WHEN COMPARED TO WHAT IT LOOKED LIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS. STRONG FLOW
ALOFT...WARM LL TEMPS WITH GOOD LAPSE RATES UP THRU 600 MB WILL
ALLOW FOR INCREASED WIND TODAY AND SUNDAY. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL COME
UP ACROSS THE SRN/SERN WIND CORRIDOR...WHILE NOCTURNAL WINDS
INCREASE DRAMATICALLY OVER/NEAR THE LEE PORTIONS OF THE MAJOR
MOUNTAIN RANGES...WITH PERHAPS SOME OCCASIONAL SPILL INTO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. TONIGHT... OVER/NEAR THE NORTHERN ABSAROKAS AND ADJACENT
CODY FOOTHILLS...INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR MOUNTAIN WAVE
PRODUCTION WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT...LASTING THRU SUNDAY MORNING. A
HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH THIS IN MIND...WITH WARNING
CONDITIONS OCCURRING BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND LASTING UNTIL AROUND
NOON ON SUNDAY. EXTENDED WARNING BY 3 HRS. GOOD LOW TO MID LVL
THERMAL AND OMEGA GRADS TONIGHT INDICATE MAX MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTION
BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY...THE UPR LVLS TRANSITION
INTO A MORE SOUTHWEST UPR FLOW PATTERN TODAY THRU SUNDAY WITH THE
WRN TROF RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE REGION.  OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...MOISTURE WILL START TO FEED INTO THE WRN FA ALONG WITH
INCREASING VORTICITY AND LIFT. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THRU
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING SHRA/SHSN TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WRN FA THRU THE REST OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY....THEN THE
NORTHERN ZONES MONDAY. ATTM...LIMITED MOISTURE AND DEEP RELATIVELY
WARM TEMPS WILL KEEP THE SNOW ON THE WET AND ON THE LOWER END OF THE
ACCUMULATION SCALE...MAXING OUT AT LESS THAN 6 INCHES OVER THE
HIGHEST PEAKS FOR THE MOST PART OVR A 30 HR PERIOD THRU MON MORNING.
DOWNSLOPE WIND ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL KEEP MOST
PRECIP AWAY DURING THE SAME PERIOD OF TIME. FAIRLY NICE DAY ACROSS
MOST OF THE SRN 3/4S OF THE CWA MONDAY...WITH SKIES CLEARING QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

TUESDAY WILL BE DRY WITH A NW FLOW ALOFT. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL IMPACT NW WY LATE TUE NIGHT AND THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY INTO WED EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THE
MODELS DIFFER NEXT SATURDAY WITH TIMING OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.
THE GFS MODEL BRINGS IN A CHANCE OF PRECIP TO THE WEST AND A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. CENTRAL AND EAST WOULD BE DRY...BREEZY AND MILD.
THE ECMWF MODEL KEEPS IT DRY ALL AREAS NEXT SATURDAY WITH BREEZY
AREAS. I WILL SIDE WITH THE ECMWF AND KEEP IT DRY NEXT SATURDAY. AS
FOR TEMPS...SEASONABLY MILD TUE THROUGH THURS...THEN ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS NEXT FRI AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS UNDER SKC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z. BREEZY
TO WINDY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND IN TYPICAL AREAS...WITH AN APPROACH
OF A STORM SYSTEM. AFTER 00Z...AREAS WEST OF THE DIVIDE WILL SEE
QUICKLY INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE AFTER 03Z. MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL BECOME OBSCURED OVER THE FAR
WEST BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR IN OR
NEAR THIS CONVECTION.  HOWEVER OF MORE CONCERN...WILL BE
CONSIDERABLE MOUNTAIN TURBULENCE TONIGHT...AS WELL AS LLWS ON THE
LEE SIDE OF MOUNTAIN RANGES...ESPECIALLY AT COD AND LND.

PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON
TURBULENCE FORECASTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

FIRE DANGER WILL BE ELEVATED TODAY...MAINLY IN THE LEE OF THE
MOUNTAIN RANGES OVER THE BASINS EAST OF THE DIVIDE AS MINIMUM RH VALUES
ACROSS THESE AREAS FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS WHILE WINDS
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO
TO 50 MPH AT TIMES. SUNDAY...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST AND
NORTH...LOWERING FIRE DANGER ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
WYZ002-003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAUN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN








000
FXUS65 KCYS 250854
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
254 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

CLEAR...DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES BEING OBSERVED OVER THE AREA THIS
MORNING...IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO WARM UP
SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY...WE SHOULD BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WHEN WE
HAD A CIRRUS SHIELD OVER THE AREA. IN FACT...700MB TEMPERATURES
2-3 DEGREES C WARMER TODAY OVER YESTERDAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
OF 20-22C. MOST AREAS ARE GOING TO SEE TEMPERATURES TODAY 20 TO 25
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT WEST TODAY AS 700MB
WINDS OFF THE GFS INCREASE TO 35 TO 40KTS ACROSS CARBON COUNTY.

STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY...DAY SHIFT MAY WANT TO CONSIDER A
HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE ARLINGTON AREA...POSSIBLY VEDAUWOO AND
BORDEAUX. GFS 700MB WINDS INCREASE TO 50KTS FOR CARBON AND ALBANY
COUNTIES...MORE THAN ENOUGH FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 58 MPH AT THESE LOCATIONS. ONLY THING THAT HELD ME BACK
FROM ISSUING THE WATCH THIS MORNING WAS THAT THE 700MB CRAIG TO
CASPER GRADIENT FORECAST AT 45-50MTRS SUNDAY MORNING...DECREASING
THROUGH THE DAY.

WE START TO SEE SOME INCREASING MOISTURE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OUT
WEST...PARTICULARLY THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...SPREADING
ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING AND THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.. FOLLOWED ECMWF GUIDANCE ON
POPS...SO INCREASED CHANCES FOR AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTH BASED ON
THIS FORECAST. GFS ALSO SHOWING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD QPF FOR THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS WELL MONDAY MORNING...SO CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING FOR AT LEAST LOW END CHANCE POPS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

MONDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES SLOWLY EAST OF OUR
COUNTIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH OUR GRADIENTS RELAXING
OVERNIGHT AND CLOUD COVER DECREASING.

TUESDAY...BREEZY TO WINDY DAY WITH PROGGED SURFACE THROUGH 700 MB
GRADIENTS AND RATHER BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

WEDNESDAY...PROGRESSIVELY FAST MOVING POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD...THOUGH WITH MINIMAL LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK MEAGER. LITTLE
WARMER DAY PER PROGGED THICKNESSES.

THURSDAY...RIDGING ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD...THOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR
MOST LOCALES WITH COOLER NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
THE DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

FRIDAY...RELATIVELY MILD DAY FOR OUTDOOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACTIVITIES...INCLUDING TRICK OR TREATERS...AS RIDGING ALOFT HOLDS
FIRM WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S AND 60S...AND WITH
RELATIVELY LIMITED WINDS DUE TO PROGGED SURFACE THROUGH 700 MB
GRADIENTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR. RIDGE ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD THIS MORNING...THEN INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY SATURDAY EVENING. WEAK SURFACE GRADIENTS PREVAIL
EXCEPT FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 22 TO 28 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
AT RAWLINS AND LARAMIE AERODROMES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VERY DRY AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES FOR AREAS ALONG AND DIRECTLY EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY. LOOKING AT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES FALLING
TO AROUND 10 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON FOR FWZ 301...309 AND 310 AS
AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S.
FORTUNATELY...STRONGER WINDS STAY WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY
WHERE FUELS ARE NOT REPORTED READY. STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST.
COOL DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE HUMIDITIES AND GIVE SOME
AREAS CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM/AVIATION...RUBIN




000
FXUS65 KCYS 250637
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1237 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY:

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUING TO DOMINATE THE REGION. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. TEMPERATURES WERE NEAR OR ABOVE
RECORDS IN MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO GOOD
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND VERY ABNORMAL STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES AT 700MB.
WE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SEE THIS TREND TOMORROW...BUT IT
APPEARS LIKE THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL NOT BE AS DOMINATE AS IT WAS
TODAY. THE MAIN REASON IS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN THE LEE SIDE TROF SOMEWHAT
WHICH WILL CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST. AS A
RESULT...WE KEPT TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT:
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA WHICH WILL
CAUSE THE WINDS TO TURN TO THE WEST AND FAVOR SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WHICH MAY TEND TO OFFSET THE COOLING SOMEWHAT. NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

NO BIG CHANCES TO THE EXTENDED FROM LAST NIGHTS FORECAST PACKAGE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE SYSTEM WHICH IS CURRENTLY OFF THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COST MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUBTLE DIFFERENCE AS TO WHERE
THE MAIN PIECES OF ENERGY WILL TRACK. THE ECMWF INDICATES A
LARGELY SHEARED APART SYSTEM WITH ONLY FRAGMENTS OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. GFS SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED
WAVE BUT KEEP THE MAIN FORECAST ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND NORTHWARD. EITHER WAY NO BIG CONCERNS WITH THIS
SYSTEM. GENERALLY KEPT POPS ON THE LOWER END...ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE
OF THE MOUNTAINS. MILD ENOUGH THAT THE ONLY REAL CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE SNOW WILL BE INTO THE MOUNTAINS...MAINLY THE SNOWY AND
SIERRA MADRE RANGES.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS WEEKENDS WAVE
AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. COULD SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE
MOUNTAINS WITH PASSING SHORTWAVES...BUT NOTHING MORE THAN VIRGA OR
SPRINKLES INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. BY LATE IN THE WEEK THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL AGAIN BUILD NORTHWARD WHILE SLIDING EAST. LOOKS
LIKE DRY MILD WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR. RIDGE ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD THIS MORNING...THEN INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY SATURDAY EVENING. WEAK SURFACE GRADIENTS PREVAIL
EXCEPT FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 22 TO 28 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
AT RAWLINS AND LARAMIE AERODROMES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014
GUSTY WEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH COMBINED WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES CREATED VERY LOW HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON. FUELS ARE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO LARGE FIRES IN THE PANHANDLE...BUT IT APPEARS LIKE
THE CRITERIA WILL FALL JUST SHORT FOR RED FLAG CRITERIA THIS
AFTERNOON. TOMORROW COULD BE ANOTHER DAY WORTH WATCHING WITH
REGARDS TO RED FLAG CRITERIA. ALTHOUGH...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE A
BIT LIGHTER IN RESPONSE TO THE LEE SIDE TROF DEVELOPING. ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIP. THIS WILL LEAD TO COOLER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY
WHICH WILL FAVOR HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REC
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...REC




000
FXUS65 KRIW 250523
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1123 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE NORTH OF OUR CWA TONIGHT. TRAPPED MTN
WAVES ARE EVIDENT ON SATL WITHIN THOSE CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN WY.
WINDS AT CHIEF JOSEPH HAVE BEEN GUSTING TO OVER 50 MPH BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE FAST WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY BREEZY WEST SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ...MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RUN ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES WITHIN THE BACKING STEERING WINDS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

ANOTHER WIND EVENT IS POSSIBLE IN THE ABSAROKAS AND CODY FOOTHILLS
SATURDAY NIGHT AS INCREASING H7 FLOW TO 35-45KTS POTENTIALLY COMBINE
WITH AN ENCROACHING JET...JUST ABOVE MTN TOP INVERSION AND
EVEN SOME MODERATE GAP FLOW SIGNATURE TO AT LEAST WARRANT A WATCH.
THE WRF IS SHOWING 35KT AT H7 UPSTREAM OF THE ABSAROKA PLATEAU WITH
80KTS ON THE EAST SLOPE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH 35-40KT BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS SURFACING ON HIGHWAY 120 WITH 60-70KTS ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS. WRF CROSS SECTION IS NOT SHOWING ANY CRITICAL LAYER BUT
ENOUGH PARAMETERS PRESENT TO AT LEAST PUT UP THE WATCH AND ALLOW
LATER SHIFTS TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...QUITE A BIT OF
WIND IN MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS ERN PACIFIC/
GULF OF ALASKA LOW MOVES INLAND. SRN UPPER LOW LIFTS NE FIRST
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH FIRST SHOT OF LIGHT PCPN IN THE FAR WEST BEFORE
THE COLDER TROUGH TO THE NW MOVES IN. MAIN CHANGE TODAY IS LESS
SUPPORT FROM THE NRN PART OF THIS TROUGH ON MONDAY. MORE SHEARING
AND FURTHER NORTH TRACK BEING SHOWN WITH LESS SUPPORT IN WYO FOR
PCPN ON MONDAY. STILL LOOKING AT SNOW IN THE WRN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN EAST OF THE DIVIDE...MAINLY
NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAIN COULD MIX WITH OR BRIEFLY
CHANGE TO SNOW LATER SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY BUT LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. EVEN LESS OF A CHANCE OF PCPN FURTHER WEST
IN THE WIND RIVER BASIN. STILL A MILD DAY EAST OF THE DIVIDE BEFORE
COLD FRONT MOVES EAST AND SE ACROSS THE AREA. MUCH COOLER MONDAY.

BRIEF RIDGING WITH TEMPS RECOVERING TUESDAY BUT THEN A FAST MOVING
SYSTEM HITS THE FAR WEST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME MOIST...ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE. THE SHORTWAVE THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH
A DECENT CHANCE OF HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW AND LOWER ELEVATIONS RAIN
IN THE WEST AND FAR NORTH. FURTHER SOUTH...THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE
CLOUDS AND STRONG TO HIGH WINDS. SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH A RIDGE MOVING BACK IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GFS HAS COME IN
LINE WITH THE ECMWF TODAY WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT RIDGE HOLDING
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY AT LEAST. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
RISE TO BETWEEN +6 AND +8 ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
RIDGE AXIS NEARLY OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY MAY HAMPER FULL MIXING BUT
STILL A MILD END TO A ABNORMALLY WARM OCTOBER.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS UNDER SKC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.
BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND IN TYPICAL AREAS DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY...WITH AN APPROACH OF A STORM SYSTEM. AFTER 00Z...AREAS
WEST OF THE DIVIDE WILL SEE QUICKLY INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE AFTER 03Z. MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL
BECOME OBSCURED OVER THE FAR WEST BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z. SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR IN OR NEAR THIS CONVECTION.  HOWEVER OF MORE
CONCERN...WILL BE CONSIDERABLE MOUNTAIN TURBULENCE SATURDAY NIGHT AS
WELL AS...LLWS ON THE LEE SIDE OF MOUNTAIN RANGES...ESPECIALLY AT
COD AND LND.

PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON
TURBULENCE FORECASTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

FIRE DANGER WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT ENHANCED THROUGH
SATURDAY...PRIMARILY ACROSS BASINS AND VALLEYS EAST OF THE DIVIDE ON
SATURDAY AS WELL AS ACROSS NATRONA COUNTY. MINIMUM RH VALUES ACROSS
THESE AREAS WILL FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS WHILE WINDS
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT
TIMES. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN SOME OF THE ZONES
SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WEST...LOWERING FIRE DANGER ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
WYZ002-003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON









000
FXUS63 KUNR 250508
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1108 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 255 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM
NORTHEASTERN ND TO FAR NORTHWESTERN SD AND SOUTHERN MT. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES REGION... WITH
STRONG UPPER JET AROUND THE RIDGE FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. SKIES ARE MAINLY SUNNY
ACROSS THE AREA WITH MILD TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. WINDS
HAVE BECOME A BIT BREEZY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SD AS THE FRONT HANGS
OVER THE AREA.

ANOTHER MILD WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY
MOVES EAST OVER THE REGION AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT TURNING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
ON SATURDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND DRY AIR IN PLACE
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP QUICKLY THIS EVENING...WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S AT MOST LOCATIONS. SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS
WILL LIKELY DROP TO NEAR FREEZING. SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS THE THERMAL RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE
AREA. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS TODAY IN
MOST AREAS WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY IN MOST AREAS...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S
OVER THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS AND FAR NORTHWESTERN SD TO THE MID AND
UPPER 70S OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY AND FAR SOUTHERN SD.


&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND COOLER AIR FLOWING INTO THE REGION WILL
PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WET BULB
ZERO PROFILES SUGGEST SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. DRY WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE HIGH
TEMPERATURES...MAINLY IN THE 50S ON THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...7







000
FXUS65 KCYS 242331
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
531 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY:

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUING TO DOMINATE THE REGION. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. TEMPERATURES WERE NEAR OR ABOVE
RECORDS IN MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO GOOD
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND VERY ABNORMAL STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES AT 700MB.
WE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SEE THIS TREND TOMORROW...BUT IT
APPEARS LIKE THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL NOT BE AS DOMINATE AS IT WAS
TODAY. THE MAIN REASON IS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN THE LEE SIDE TROF SOMEWHAT
WHICH WILL CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST. AS A
RESULT...WE KEPT TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT:
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA WHICH WILL
CAUSE THE WINDS TO TURN TO THE WEST AND FAVOR SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WHICH MAY TEND TO OFFSET THE COOLING SOMEWHAT. NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

NO BIG CHANCES TO THE EXTENDED FROM LAST NIGHTS FORECAST PACKAGE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE SYSTEM WHICH IS CURRENTLY OFF THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COST MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUBTLE DIFFERENCE AS TO WHERE
THE MAIN PIECES OF ENERGY WILL TRACK. THE ECMWF INDICATES A
LARGELY SHEARED APART SYSTEM WITH ONLY FRAGMENTS OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. GFS SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED
WAVE BUT KEEP THE MAIN FORECAST ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND NORTHWARD. EITHER WAY NO BIG CONCERNS WITH THIS
SYSTEM. GENERALLY KEPT POPS ON THE LOWER END...ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE
OF THE MOUNTAINS. MILD ENOUGH THAT THE ONLY REAL CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE SNOW WILL BE INTO THE MOUNTAINS...MAINLY THE SNOWY AND
SIERRA MADRE RANGES.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS WEEKENDS WAVE
AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. COULD SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE
MOUNTAINS WITH PASSING SHORTWAVES...BUT NOTHING MORE THAN VIRGA OR
SPRINKLES INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. BY LATE IN THE WEEK THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL AGAIN BUILD NORTHWARD WHILE SLIDING EAST. LOOKS
LIKE DRY MILD WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 531 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

ANOTHER QUIET PERIOD SHAPING UP FOR AREA TERMINALS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING BENEATH CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
TURN LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...WITH SITES EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS TURNING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE KRWL
AND KLAR REMAIN SOUTHWEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014
GUSTY WEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH COMBINED WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES CREATED VERY LOW HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON. FUELS ARE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO LARGE FIRES IN THE PANHANDLE...BUT IT APPEARS LIKE
THE CRITERIA WILL FALL JUST SHORT FOR RED FLAG CRITERIA THIS
AFTERNOON. TOMORROW COULD BE ANOTHER DAY WORTH WATCHING WITH
REGARDS TO RED FLAG CRITERIA. ALTHOUGH...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE A
BIT LIGHTER IN RESPONSE TO THE LEE SIDE TROF DEVELOPING. ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIP. THIS WILL LEAD TO COOLER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY
WHICH WILL FAVOR HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REC
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...CAH
FIRE WEATHER...REC




000
FXUS63 KUNR 242256
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
456 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 255 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM
NORTHEASTERN ND TO FAR NORTHWESTERN SD AND SOUTHERN MT. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES REGION... WITH
STRONG UPPER JET AROUND THE RIDGE FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. SKIES ARE MAINLY SUNNY
ACROSS THE AREA WITH MILD TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. WINDS
HAVE BECOME A BIT BREEZY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SD AS THE FRONT HANGS
OVER THE AREA.

ANOTHER MILD WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY
MOVES EAST OVER THE REGION AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT TURNING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
ON SATURDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND DRY AIR IN PLACE
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP QUICKLY THIS EVENING...WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S AT MOST LOCATIONS. SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS
WILL LIKELY DROP TO NEAR FREEZING. SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS THE THERMAL RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE
AREA. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS TODAY IN
MOST AREAS WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY IN MOST AREAS...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S
OVER THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS AND FAR NORTHWESTERN SD TO THE MID AND
UPPER 70S OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY AND FAR SOUTHERN SD.


&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND COOLER AIR FLOWING INTO THE REGION WILL
PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WET BULB
ZERO PROFILES SUGGEST SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. DRY WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE HIGH
TEMPERATURES...MAINLY IN THE 50S ON THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 455 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...77







000
FXUS65 KCYS 242205
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
405 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY:

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUING TO DOMINATE THE REGION. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. TEMPERATURES WERE NEAR OR ABOVE
RECORDS IN MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO GOOD
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND VERY ABNORMAL STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES AT 700MB.
WE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SEE THIS TREND TOMORROW...BUT IT
APPEARS LIKE THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL NOT BE AS DOMINATE AS IT WAS
TODAY. THE MAIN REASON IS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN THE LEE SIDE TROF SOMEWHAT
WHICH WILL CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST. AS A
RESULT...WE KEPT TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT:
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA WHICH WILL
CAUSE THE WINDS TO TURN TO THE WEST AND FAVOR SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WHICH MAY TEND TO OFFSET THE COOLING SOMEWHAT. NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

NO BIG CHANCES TO THE EXTENDED FROM LAST NIGHTS FORECAST PACKAGE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE SYSTEM WHICH IS CURRENTLY OFF THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COST MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUBTLE DIFFERENCE AS TO WHERE
THE MAIN PIECES OF ENERGY WILL TRACK. THE ECMWF INDICATES A
LARGELY SHEARED APART SYSTEM WITH ONLY FRAGMENTS OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. GFS SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED
WAVE BUT KEEP THE MAIN FORECAST ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND NORTHWARD. EITHER WAY NO BIG CONCERNS WITH THIS
SYSTEM. GENERALLY KEPT POPS ON THE LOWER END...ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE
OF THE MOUNTAINS. MILD ENOUGH THAT THE ONLY REAL CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE SNOW WILL BE INTO THE MOUNTAINS...MAINLY THE SNOWY AND
SIERRA MADRE RANGES.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS WEEKENDS WAVE
AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. COULD SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE
MOUNTAINS WITH PASSING SHORTWAVES...BUT NOTHING MORE THAN VIRGA OR
SPRINKLES INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. BY LATE IN THE WEEK THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL AGAIN BUILD NORTHWARD WHILE SLIDING EAST. LOOKS
LIKE DRY MILD WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE HOW STRONG
WINDS WILL BE AT RWL THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING MOST OF THE CLOUDS EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. THIS HAS LIMITED THE MIXING POTENTIAL AT CYS THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THINGS HAVE BEEN MIXING FAIRLY WELL OUT
TOWARDS RWL WHERE WIND SPEEDS ARE GUSTING BETWEEN 20 AND 25KTS.
THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH THE
NEXT 24HRS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR WIND SPEEDS TO LIGHTEN OVERNIGHT
AS THE INVERSION SETS IN.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014
GUSTY WEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH COMBINED WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES CREATED VERY LOW HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON. FUELS ARE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO LARGE FIRES IN THE PANHANDLE...BUT IT APPEARS LIKE
THE CRITERIA WILL FALL JUST SHORT FOR RED FLAG CRITERIA THIS
AFTERNOON. TOMORROW COULD BE ANOTHER DAY WORTH WATCHING WITH
REGARDS TO RED FLAG CRITERIA. ALTHOUGH...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE A
BIT LIGHTER IN RESPONSE TO THE LEE SIDE TROF DEVELOPING. ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIP. THIS WILL LEAD TO COOLER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY
WHICH WILL FAVOR HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REC
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...REC
FIRE WEATHER...REC




000
FXUS63 KUNR 242057
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
257 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 255 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM
NORTHEASTERN ND TO FAR NORTHWESTERN SD AND SOUTHERN MT. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES REGION... WITH
STRONG UPPER JET AROUND THE RIDGE FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. SKIES ARE MAINLY SUNNY
ACROSS THE AREA WITH MILD TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. WINDS
HAVE BECOME A BIT BREEZY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SD AS THE FRONT HANGS
OVER THE AREA.

ANOTHER MILD WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY
MOVES EAST OVER THE REGION AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT TURNING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
ON SATURDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND DRY AIR IN PLACE
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP QUICKLY THIS EVENING...WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S AT MOST LOCATIONS. SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS
WILL LIKELY DROP TO NEAR FREEZING. SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS THE THERMAL RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE
AREA. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS TODAY IN
MOST AREAS WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY IN MOST AREAS...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S
OVER THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS AND FAR NORTHWESTERN SD TO THE MID AND
UPPER 70S OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY AND FAR SOUTHERN SD.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND COOLER AIR FLOWING INTO THE REGION WILL
PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WET BULB
ZERO PROFILES SUGGEST SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. DRY WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE HIGH
TEMPERATURES...MAINLY IN THE 50S ON THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
STREAM OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...10







000
FXUS65 KRIW 242032
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
232 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE NORTH OF OUR CWA TONIGHT. TRAPPED MTN
WAVES ARE EVIDENT ON SATL WITHIN THOSE CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN WY.
WINDS AT CHIEF JOSEPH HAVE BEEN GUSTING TO OVER 50 MPH BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE FAST WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY BREEZY WEST SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ...MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RUN ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES WITHIN THE BACKING STEERING WINDS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ANOTHER WIND EVENT IS POSSIBLE IN THE ABSAROKAS AND CODY FOOTHILLS
SATURDAY NIGHT AS INCREASING H7 FLOW TO 35-45KTS POTENTIALLY COMBINE
WITH AN ENCROACHING JET...JUST ABOVE MTN TOP INVERSION AND
EVEN SOME MODERATE GAP FLOW SIGNATURE TO AT LEAST WARRANT A WATCH.
THE WRF IS SHOWING 35KT AT H7 UPSTREAM OF THE ABSAROKA PLATEAU WITH
80KTS ON THE EAST SLOPE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH 35-40KT BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS SURFACING ON HIGHWAY 120 WITH 60-70KTS ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS. WRF CROSS SECTION IS NOT SHOWING ANY CRITICAL LAYER BUT
ENOUGH PARAMETERS PRESENT TO AT LEAST PUT UP THE WATCH AND ALLOW
LATER SHIFTS TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...QUITE A BIT OF
WIND IN MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS ERN PACIFIC/
GULF OF ALASKA LOW MOVES INLAND. SRN UPPER LOW LIFTS NE FIRST
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH FIRST SHOT OF LIGHT PCPN IN THE FAR WEST BEFORE
THE COLDER TROUGH TO THE NW MOVES IN. MAIN CHANGE TODAY IS LESS
SUPPORT FROM THE NRN PART OF THIS TROUGH ON MONDAY. MORE SHEARING
AND FURTHER NORTH TRACK BEING SHOWN WITH LESS SUPPORT IN WYO FOR
PCPN ON MONDAY. STILL LOOKING AT SNOW IN THE WRN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN EAST OF THE DIVIDE...MAINLY
NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAIN COULD MIX WITH OR BRIEFLY
CHANGE TO SNOW LATER SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY BUT LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. EVEN LESS OF A CHANCE OF PCPN FURTHER WEST
IN THE WIND RIVER BASIN. STILL A MILD DAY EAST OF THE DIVIDE BEFORE
COLD FRONT MOVES EAST AND SE ACROSS THE AREA. MUCH COOLER MONDAY.

BRIEF RIDGING WITH TEMPS RECOVERING TUESDAY BUT THEN A FAST MOVING
SYSTEM HITS THE FAR WEST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME MOIST...ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE. THE SHORTWAVE THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH
A DECENT CHANCE OF HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW AND LOWER ELEVATIONS RAIN
IN THE WEST AND FAR NORTH. FURTHER SOUTH...THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE
CLOUDS AND STRONG TO HIGH WINDS. SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH A RIDGE MOVING BACK IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GFS HAS COME IN
LINE WITH THE ECMWF TODAY WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT RIDGE HOLDING
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY AT LEAST. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
RISE TO BETWEEN +6 AND +8 ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
RIDGE AXIS NEARLY OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY MAY HAMPER FULL MIXING BUT
STILL A MILD END TO A ABNORMALLY WARM OCTOBER.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/
CONSIDERABLE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
MAINLY SKC BY 00Z IN NORTHERN WY. OTHERWISE...VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
AT AREA TERMINALS THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE DANGER WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT ENHANCED THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY
ACROSS BASINS AND VALLEYS EAST OF THE DIVIDE ON SATURDAY AS WELL
AS ACROSS NATRONA COUNTY. MINIMUM RH VALUES ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL
FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS WHILE WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES. VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN SOME OF THE ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WITH A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST...LOWERING
FIRE DANGER ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
WYZ002-003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...LIPSON
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON






000
FXUS65 KCYS 241755
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1155 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

DENSE CIRRUS OVERHEAD THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA. THIS
DENSER CIRRUS HAS HELPED KEEP EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES FAIRLY
WARM...WITH 2AM READINGS IN THE 50S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
MID 40S OUT IN THE PANHANDLE. RADAR MOSAIC PPINE FOR THE MOST
PART. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A VERY SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT...NEARLY STATIONARY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MONTANA TO
SOUTHEAST IDAHO INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING.

LOOKS LIKE THE CIRRUS SHOULD STAY WITH US THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH THE GFS NSHARP SOUNDINGS SHOWING A THINNING OUT THIS
AFTERNOON. COULD HOLD OUR TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME TODAY...BUT WE
SHOULD STILL SEE A WARM DAY WITH UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE AND LOW 70S WEST.

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS 700MB
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE +8 TO +10C RANGE. FRONT TO OUR WEST
VERY SLOW TO MOVE EAST...SO DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WE COULD START
SEEING SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING OUT WEST IN CARBON COUNTY. DID CUT
BACK ON POPS OUT THERE AS GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY SLOWER ON PRECIP
ONSET.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE
ACROSS OUR COUNTIES FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS OVER
THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES AND SOME DYNAMIC SHOWERS OVER OUR
FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES.

MONDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT PASSAGE...MOIST
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE FAVORED NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE.

TUESDAY...SLOW WARMING TREND ON TAP AS THE AIRMASS BEGINS TO
MODERATE AND SURFACE LEE TROUGHING BECOMES WEAKLY ESTABLISHED DUE TO
WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

WEDNESDAY...CONTINUED WARMING TREND AS HEIGHTS ALOFT AND THICKNESSES
RISE. STILL LOOKS RELATIVELY DRY DUE TO LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IN STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

THURSDAY...RIDGE AXIS ALOFT MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER OUR COUNTIES. MINIMAL LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...THUS STAYING DRY.

FRIDAY...HALLOWEEN DAY LOOKS DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD WITH STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...DECENT SURFACE LEE TROUGHING...AND LIMITED
LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE HOW STRONG
WINDS WILL BE AT RWL THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING MOST OF THE CLOUDS EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. THIS HAS LIMITED THE MIXING POTENTIAL AT CYS THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THINGS HAVE BEEN MIXING FAIRLY WELL OUT
TOWARDS RWL WHERE WIND SPEEDS ARE GUSTING BETWEEN 20 AND 25KTS.
THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH THE
NEXT 24HRS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR WIND SPEEDS TO LIGHTEN OVERNIGHT
AS THE INVERSION SETS IN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 148 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WARM...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY COULD BE CLOSE TO
CRITICAL...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE IN FWZS 301...309 AND 310. FORTUNATELY THOUGH...WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FOR THESE AREAS DURING THIS TIME. BY
SUNDAY...WE DO SEE A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA THAT WILL
BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES TO THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...WFOCYS
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB




000
FXUS65 KRIW 241716
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1115 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

IMAGERY SHOWS FLAT RIDGING WITH BROAD TROUGHING TO BOTH THE WEST AND
EAST. VERY STRONG JET OFF TO THE N AND ACROSS THE BORDER REGION OF
THE NW CONUS AND CA. AT THE SFC...WEAK TROF ACROSS NRN ROCKIES AND
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS W/ A WEAK FRONT SPLITTING MT THEN SWD THRU ERN
ID AND EVENTUALLY INTO NV.

STRONG WINDS AND SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTION PINNED AND BREAKING JUST
EAST OF THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF THE NRN ABSAROKAS TONIGHT. THESE WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...STRONG FLOW
ALOFT...WARM LL TEMPS WITH GOOD LAPSE RATES UP THRU 600 MB WILL
CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR VARIOUS WIND SCENARIOS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL COME UP ACROSS THE SRN/SERN WIND
CORRIDOR...WHILE NOCTURNAL WINDS INCREASE OVER/NEAR THE LEE PORTIONS
OF THE MAJOR MOUNTAIN RANGES...WITH PERHAPS SOME OCCASIONAL SPILL
INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...PARTICULARLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS
CONDITIONS BECOME MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR MOUNTAIN WAVE PRODUCTION.
THE UPR LVLS TRANSITION INTO A MORE SOUTHWEST UPR FLOW PATTERN BY
SATURDAY WITH THE APPROACHING TROF AXIS...AND MOISTURE WILL START
TO FEED INTO THE WRN FA ALONG WITH INCREASING VORTICITY AND LIFT.
THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THRU AND ALLOW BOTH RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP SAT NIGHT AND SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE WRN FA
THRU THE REST OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ATTM...DEEP RELATIVELY WARM
TEMPS WILL KEEP THE SNOW ON THE WET AND ON THE LOWER END OF THE
ACCUMULATION SCALE...MAXING OUT AT 6 INCHES OVER THE HIGHEST
PEAKS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MONDAY WILL SEE THE WEATHER SYSTEM PASS THROUGH WY PRODUCING
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH SNOW FOR MOST MOUNTAINS. BRISK WIND IN
PLACES AND COOL HIGH TEMPS. THE SHOWERS END MONDAY EVENING. TUESDAY
LOOKS DRY FOR MOST AREAS...ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NW
WY MOUNTAINS LATE TUE PM WITH INCREASING SHOWERS IN THE NW WY
MOUNTAINS TUE NIGHT. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE WEST WITH SNOW
IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. EAST OF THE DIVIDE...ISOLATED SHOWERS AT
BEST WITH SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS. THE
PRECIP ENDS WED NIGHT. AS FOR NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE ECMWF
MODEL IS DRY WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION. THE GFS HAS THURSDAY
DRY BUT THEN HAS SOME PRECIP IN THE WEST ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM. THIS MAY BE TOO FAST AND WILL NOT ADD ANY PRECIP TO
THE WEST AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPS TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE TUESDAY
WITH ONLY SLIGHT WARMING ON WED. NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE
MILDER.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

CONSIDERABLE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
MAINLY SKC BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z. VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT
AREA TERMINALS THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY.

PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON
TURBULENCE FORECASTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

FIRE DANGER WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT ENHANCED TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NATRONA COUNTY TODAY...THEN OVER
MOST BASINS AND VALLEYS EAST OF THE DIVIDE ON SATURDAY. MINIMUM RH
VALUES ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS
WHILE WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES. SUNDAY...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WEST...LOWERING FIRE DANGER ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAUN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...WM/LIPSON
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN









000
FXUS63 KUNR 241711
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1111 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

STRONG UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE SCNTRL CONUS...WITH THE
MAIN UPPER FLOW CROSSING THE PACIFIC NW TO THE NRN PLAINS. UPPER
FLOW BRINGING IN PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN SINCE YESTERDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S TODAY.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL SLIDE NORTH TODAY WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON. UPPER RIDGING WILL EXTEND NRD SAT INTO THE NRN
ROCKIES/PLAINS...IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC
NW. SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED SAT WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 60S
TO UPPER 70S. WARMEST TEMPS TODAY WILL BE IN SCNTRL SD...BUT WARMEST
TEMPS SAT WILL SWITCH TO NE WY AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP W/ SE WINDS.


&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STICK AROUND A BIT
LONGER SUNDAY RESULTING IN CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY PUSHING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA. ENOUGH FORCING PRESENT TO OVERCOME DRY
AIR AND THUS WILL CONTINUE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WET BULB
ZERO PROFILES SUGGEST SOME SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
LATE AT NIGHT. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH SEASONAL FALL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 1109 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD WITH PERIODS OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...10







000
FXUS65 KCYS 241142
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
542 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

DENSE CIRRUS OVERHEAD THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA. THIS
DENSER CIRRUS HAS HELPED KEEP EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES FAIRLY
WARM...WITH 2AM READINGS IN THE 50S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
MID 40S OUT IN THE PANHANDLE. RADAR MOSAIC PPINE FOR THE MOST
PART. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A VERY SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT...NEARLY STATIONARY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MONTANA TO
SOUTHEAST IDAHO INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING.

LOOKS LIKE THE CIRRUS SHOULD STAY WITH US THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH THE GFS NSHARP SOUNDINGS SHOWING A THINNING OUT THIS
AFTERNOON. COULD HOLD OUR TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME TODAY...BUT WE
SHOULD STILL SEE A WARM DAY WITH UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE AND LOW 70S WEST.

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS 700MB
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE +8 TO +10C RANGE. FRONT TO OUR WEST
VERY SLOW TO MOVE EAST...SO DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WE COULD START
SEEING SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING OUT WEST IN CARBON COUNTY. DID CUT
BACK ON POPS OUT THERE AS GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY SLOWER ON PRECIP
ONSET.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE
ACROSS OUR COUNTIES FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS OVER
THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES AND SOME DYNAMIC SHOWERS OVER OUR
FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES.

MONDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT PASSAGE...MOIST
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE FAVORED NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE.

TUESDAY...SLOW WARMING TREND ON TAP AS THE AIRMASS BEGINS TO
MODERATE AND SURFACE LEE TROUGHING BECOMES WEAKLY ESTABLISHED DUE TO
WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

WEDNESDAY...CONTINUED WARMING TREND AS HEIGHTS ALOFT AND THICKNESSES
RISE. STILL LOOKS RELATIVELY DRY DUE TO LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IN STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

THURSDAY...RIDGE AXIS ALOFT MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER OUR COUNTIES. MINIMAL LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...THUS STAYING DRY.

FRIDAY...HALLOWEEN DAY LOOKS DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD WITH STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...DECENT SURFACE LEE TROUGHING...AND LIMITED
LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 539 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 12000 FEET AGL.
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 32 KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN WINDS DECREASING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 148 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WARM...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY COULD BE CLOSE TO
CRITICAL...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE IN FWZS 301...309 AND 310. FORTUNATELY THOUGH...WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FOR THESE AREAS DURING THIS TIME. BY
SUNDAY...WE DO SEE A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA THAT WILL
BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES TO THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB




000
FXUS65 KRIW 240933
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
333 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

IMAGERY SHOWS FLAT RIDGING WITH BROAD TROFFING TO BOTH THE WEST AND
EAST. VERY STRONG JET OFF TO THE N AND ACROSS THE BORDER REGION OF
THE NW CONUS AND CA. AT THE SFC...WEAK TROF ACROSS NRN ROCKIES AND
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS W/ A WEAK FRONT SPLITTING MT THEN SWD THRU ERN
ID AND EVENTUALLY INTO NV.

STRONG WINDS AND SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTION PINNED AND BREAKING JUST
EAST OF THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF THE NRN ABSAROKAS TONIGHT. THESE WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...STRONG FLOW
ALOFT...WARM LL TEMPS WITH GOOD LAPSE RATES UP THRU 600 MB WILL
CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR VARIOUS WIND SCENARIOS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL COME UP ACROSS THE SRN/SERN WIND
CORRIDOR...WHILE NOCTURNAL WINDS INCREASE OVER/NEAR THE LEE PORTIONS
OF THE MAJOR MOUNTAIN RANGES...WITH PERHAPS SOME OCCASIONAL SPILL
INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...PARTICULARLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS
CONDITIONS BECOME MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR MOUNTAIN WAVE PRODUCTION.
THE UPR LVLS TRANSITION INTO A MORE SOUTHWEST UPR FLOW PATTERN BY
SATURDAY WITH THE APPROACHING TROF AXIS...AND MOISTURE WILL START
TO FEED INTO THE WRN FA ALONG WITH INCREASING VORTICITY AND LIFT.
THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THRU AND ALLOW BOTH RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP SAT NIGHT AND SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE WRN FA
THRU THE REST OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ATTM...DEEP RELATIVELY WARM
TEMPS WILL KEEP THE SNOW ON THE WET AND ON THE LOWER END OF THE
ACCUMULATION SCALE...MAXING OUT AT 6 INCHES OVER THE HIGHEST
PEAKS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MONDAY WILL SEE THE WEATHER SYSTEM PASS THROUGH WY PRODUCING
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH SNOW FOR MOST MOUNTAINS. BRISK WIND IN
PLACES AND COOL HIGH TEMPS. THE SHOWERS END MONDAY EVENING. TUESDAY
LOOKS DRY FOR MOST AREAS...ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NW
WY MOUNTAINS LATE TUE PM WITH INCREASING SHOWERS IN THE NW WY
MOUNTAINS TUE NIGHT. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE WEST WITH SNOW
IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. EAST OF THE DIVIDE...ISOLATED SHOWERS AT
BEST WITH SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS. THE
PRECIP ENDS WED NIGHT. AS FOR NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE ECMWF
MODEL IS DRY WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION. THE GFS HAS THURSDAY
DRY BUT THEN HAS SOME PRECIP IN THE WEST ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM. THIS MAY BE TOO FAST AND WILL NOT ADD ANY PRECIP TO
THE WEST AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPS TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE TUESDAY
WITH ONLY SLIGHT WARMING ON WED. NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE
MILDER.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

CONCERN TODAY AGAIN WILL BE CONSIDERABLE MOUNTAIN TURBULENCE WITH
STRONG MOUNTAIN TOP WINDS...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. LLWS ON THE LEE
SIDE OF MOUNTAIN RANGES IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AT COD AND
LND...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
CONSIDERABLE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED
TO WILL BECOME MAINLY SKC BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z. THERE COULD BE
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER EXTREME NW WYOMING THIS MORNING...BUT
SHOULD NOT IMPACT COD OR JAC. THUS VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
AT AREA TERMINALS THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY.

PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON
TURBULENCE FORECASTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

FIRE DANGER WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT ENHANCED TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NATRONA COUNTY TODAY...THEN OVER
MOST BASINS AND VALLEYS EAST OF THE DIVIDE ON SATURDAY. MINIMUM RH
VALUES ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS
WHILE WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES. SUNDAY...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WEST...LOWERING FIRE DANGER ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAUN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN






000
FXUS63 KUNR 240921
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
321 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

STRONG UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE SCNTRL CONUS...WITH THE
MAIN UPPER FLOW CROSSING THE PACIFIC NW TO THE NRN PLAINS. UPPER
FLOW BRINGING IN PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN SINCE YESTERDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S TODAY.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL SLIDE NORTH TODAY WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON. UPPER RIDGING WILL EXTEND NRD SAT INTO THE NRN
ROCKIES/PLAINS...IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC
NW. SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED SAT WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 60S
TO UPPER 70S. WARMEST TEMPS TODAY WILL BE IN SCNTRL SD...BUT WARMEST
TEMPS SAT WILL SWITCH TO NE WY AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP W/ SE WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STICK AROUND A BIT
LONGER SUNDAY RESULTING IN CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY PUSHING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA. ENOUGH FORCING PRESENT TO OVERCOME DRY
AIR AND THUS WILL CONTINUE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WET BULB
ZERO PROFILES SUGGEST SOME SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
LATE AT NIGHT. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH SEASONAL FALL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD WITH A STREAM
OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...HELGESON








000
FXUS65 KCYS 240842
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
242 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

DENSE CIRRUS OVERHEAD THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA. THIS
DENSER CIRRUS HAS HELPED KEEP EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES FAIRLY
WARM...WITH 2AM READINGS IN THE 50S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
MID 40S OUT IN THE PANHANDLE. RADAR MOSAIC PPINE FOR THE MOST
PART. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A VERY SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT...NEARLY STATIONARY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MONTANA TO
SOUTHEAST IDAHO INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING.

LOOKS LIKE THE CIRRUS SHOULD STAY WITH US THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH THE GFS NSHARP SOUNDINGS SHOWING A THINNING OUT THIS
AFTERNOON. COULD HOLD OUR TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME TODAY...BUT WE
SHOULD STILL SEE A WARM DAY WITH UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE AND LOW 70S WEST.

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS 700MB
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE +8 TO +10C RANGE. FRONT TO OUR WEST
VERY SLOW TO MOVE EAST...SO DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WE COULD START
SEEING SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING OUT WEST IN CARBON COUNTY. DID CUT
BACK ON POPS OUT THERE AS GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY SLOWER ON PRECIP
ONSET.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE
ACROSS OUR COUNTIES FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS OVER
THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES AND SOME DYNAMIC SHOWERS OVER OUR
FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES.

MONDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT PASSAGE...MOIST
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE FAVORED NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE.

TUESDAY...SLOW WARMING TREND ON TAP AS THE AIRMASS BEGINS TO
MODERATE AND SURFACE LEE TROUGHING BECOMES WEAKLY ESTABLISHED DUE TO
WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

WEDNESDAY...CONTINUED WARMING TREND AS HEIGHTS ALOFT AND THICKNESSES
RISE. STILL LOOKS RELATIVELY DRY DUE TO LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IN STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

THURSDAY...RIDGE AXIS ALOFT MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER OUR COUNTIES. MINIMAL LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...THUS STAYING DRY.

FRIDAY...HALLOWEEN DAY LOOKS DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD WITH STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...DECENT SURFACE LEE TROUGHING...AND LIMITED
LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE UPCOMING PERIOD WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THERE WILL BE A SCT-BKN200 CLOUD LAYER
MOVING OVERHEAD TONIGHT...BUT THIS TOO SHOULD LESSEN BY MIDDAY
FRIDAY. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AIRFIELDS 15-16Z ON FRIDAY WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KNOTS EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL RELAX AROUND SUNSET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 148 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WARM...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY COULD BE CLOSE TO
CRITICAL...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE IN FWZS 301...309 AND 310. FORTUNATELY THOUGH...WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FOR THESE AREAS DURING THIS TIME. BY
SUNDAY...WE DO SEE A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA THAT WILL
BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES TO THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB




000
FXUS65 KRIW 240550
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1150 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

THE RIGHT FRONT QUAD OF A STRONG 160KT UPPER JET WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA INTO FRIDAY MORNING KEEPING VERY STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS ON THE LEE SIDE OF MOUNTAIN RANGES. CHIEF JOSEPH
MEASURED A 71 MPH AT 9 PM THIS EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR THROUGH 12Z OVER THE ABSAROKA MTS...WITH THE
BULK OF THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAINING ABOVE THE CODY FOOTHILLS.
SPS STILL LOOKS GOOD IN THOSE AREAS. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A FEW SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST WYOMING...MAINLY YELLOWSTONE
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY...WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND WINDS
NOT BEING AS STRONG IN MANY AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

WARM RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SRN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS LEADING TO A
VERY MILD SATURDAY WITH H7 TEMPERATURES BETWEEN +6C AND +9C. A FEW
TEMPERATURES RECORDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL WYO
WHERE READINGS WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS. THEN WE START A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE AS THE ERN PACIFIC UPPER LOW MOVES IN. THE SRN
PART OF THIS TROUGH MOVES IN FIRST ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
THE NRN PIECE FOLLOWING QUICKLY BEHIND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
STILL A LOT OF DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS BUT ENOUGH COLD AIR WITH
THIS SYSTEM FOR SNOW OUT WEST SUNDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOW LINE
LOWERING TO THE VALLEY FLOOR. EAST OF THE DIVIDE...THE COLD AIR
FILTERS IN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW
ACROSS THE NORTH AND THEN SPREADING INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL WYO LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. NOT A REAL ORGANIZED OR CLOSED OFF
SYSTEM BUT ENOUGH FORCING...OROGRAPHICS OUT WEST AND SOME
FORCING...UPSLOPE EAST TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME ACCUMULATION IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS EAST OF THE DIVIDE ALSO. WILL CONTINUE TREND OF
INCREASING POPS IN THE WEST SUNDAY AND THEN KEEP HIGH POPS IN THE
WEST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE INCREASING THEM IN THE NORTH AND THEN
WORKING SOUTH INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST
AND SOUTH. BRIEF RIDGING TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IN THE NW
FLOW MOVES IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. GFS HAS ANOTHER SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS THURSDAY WITH A FRONT DROPPING SOUTH
ACROSS OUR NRN AND ERN ZONES. THE ECMWF HAS A RIDGE AHEAD OF A
POTENTIAL SYSTEM BEYOND THE MEDIUM RANGE. STILL A LOT OF AT THE END
OF THE PERIOD AS TO THE EVOLUTION/MOVEMENT OF OUR SYSTEMS OVER
SIBERIA AND MOVING EWD. OP ECMWF AND GFS SHOW MORE SPLITTING WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND THUS MUCH MORE ENERGY/UPPER LOW FORMING OVER THE ERN
PACIFIC LATE NEXT WEEK. THE GFS HAS A LITTLE MORE ENERGY RIDING OVER
THE AK RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THUS A STRONGER SYSTEM DIVING INTO
THE NRN HIGH PLAINS ON THURSDAY WITH MAINLY DRY FRONTAL SYSTEM
IMPACTING OUR AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE. CONFIDENCE STILL LOW ON THE
LAST COUPLE DAYS OF THIS PERIOD AND BEYOND WITH MORE ACTIVE
HEMISPHERIC 5 WAVE DEVELOPING.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

CONCERN FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL BE CONSIDERABLE
MOUNTAIN TURBULENCE WITH STRONG MOUNTAIN TOP WINDS...ESPECIALLY
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. LLWS ON THE LEE SIDE OF MOUNTAIN RANGES IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING AT COD AND LND...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CONSIDERABLE HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO WILL BECOME MAINLY SKC
BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z. THERE COULD BE ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
EXTREME NW WYOMING THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD NOT IMPACT COD OR
JAC. THUS VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT AREA TERMINALS
THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS BEING
THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY.

PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON
TURBULENCE FORECASTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BE
THE STRONG WINDS OCCURRING THE MOUNTAINS AND IN THE TYPICAL WIND
CORRIDORS. OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NATRONA COUNTY /FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 280/ THERE BE A COMBINATION OF LOW RH BETWEEN 15 AND
20 PERCENT AND BREEZY WINDS TO CREATE ELEVATED FIRE BEHAVIOR.
THERE COULD BE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER EXTREME NORTHWEST WYOMING
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THEY WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND NO
WETTING RAIN WILL OCCUR.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TEAM RIVERTON
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...TEAM RIVERTON






000
FXUS63 KUNR 240502
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1102 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS BROAD RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGE CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SKIES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ARE PARTLY SUNNY WITH MAINLY THIN CIRRUS CROSSING
THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE WITH LEE
TROF DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ARE IN THE 60S AND 70S...WITH LIGHT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY WITH DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT WINDS PERSISTING. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN ON FRIDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S...WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
CONTINUING.


&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER AND WARMER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MUCH OF
SUNDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND A DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. COOLER AIR FLOWING INTO THE
REGION WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A BIT
OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL END
ON MONDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S IS THEN EXPECTED FOR
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...7







000
FXUS63 KUNR 240502
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1102 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS BROAD RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGE CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SKIES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ARE PARTLY SUNNY WITH MAINLY THIN CIRRUS CROSSING
THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE WITH LEE
TROF DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ARE IN THE 60S AND 70S...WITH LIGHT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY WITH DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT WINDS PERSISTING. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN ON FRIDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S...WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
CONTINUING.


&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER AND WARMER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MUCH OF
SUNDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND A DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. COOLER AIR FLOWING INTO THE
REGION WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A BIT
OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL END
ON MONDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S IS THEN EXPECTED FOR
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...7







000
FXUS65 KCYS 240459
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1059 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST ALL OF THE
SHORT TERM (TNGT THRU SAT MRNG). THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO
SLOWLY BUILDING HEIGHTS AND A DOMINANT LARGE-SCALE RIDGE ACROSS
THE CNTRL CONUS. THE MAIN ITEMS OF INTEREST WILL BE GUSTY
SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS AND RELATIVELY WARM WEATHER.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND RAP MODEL ANALYSES INDICATED A
150-KT 300-MB JET CROSSING OVER THE PACIFIC NW WITH CONSIDERABLE
MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE NWRN CONUS. ALTHOUGH A
THICK PATCH OF CIRRUS MOVED ACROSS THE CWA EARLIER TODAY...THE WATER
VAPOR TRAJECTORY SUGGESTS THE BULK OF THE CIRRUS WILL REMAIN NW OF
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY LATE TNGT AND FRI AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS.
UNTIL THEN...EXPECT SOME PERIODIC DENSE CIRRUS PATCHES AS THE JET
INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAINS. BUFKIT TIME-SECTIONS FOR KCYS SUPPORT
THIS AS WELL.

GUSTY SOUTHWEST-WINDS WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY NEAR RIDGE TOPS TNGT AS
700-MB FLOW IS 30-45 KT FROM THE WEST WITH WEAK COLD-ADVECTION THAT
WILL PROMOTE MIXING. LOOKS TO BE JUST BELOW HIGH WIND WRNG CRITERIA
BUT IT DOES BEAR WATCHING. ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY THEY SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT MUTED AS 700-MB WIND SPEEDS DECREASE
BY 5-10 KT AND THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS.

GIVEN THE UPPER RIDGE AND 700-MB TEMPS OF 7-10C ACROSS THE CWA THE
TEMPS WILL BE 15-20F ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM...AND
APPROACHING RECORD LEVELS ON FRIDAY. THE RH ALSO WILL DROP TO NEAR
15 PERCENT ACROSS THE SERN WY PLAINS ON FRI AFTN. FRI NGT WILL AGAIN
BE QUITE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS
RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY. HIGHS WILL
BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA DURING THE DAY.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS FURTHER EAST...ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...WITH CHANCES SPREADING OVER THE REST OF THE CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS COLDER AIR PUSHES IN SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY OVER AT
LEAST THE SOUTH CENTRAL WY MOUNTAINS.

SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A WARMUP POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE UPCOMING PERIOD WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THERE WILL BE A SCT-BKN200 CLOUD LAYER
MOVING OVERHEAD TONIGHT...BUT THIS TOO SHOULD LESSEN BY MIDDAY
FRIDAY. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AIRFIELDS 15-16Z ON FRIDAY WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KNOTS EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL RELAX AROUND SUNSET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

CONTINUED WARM AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS. EXPECT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TO FALL
INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS EACH AFTERNOON. FORTUNATELY...FUELS
ARE REPORTED AS GREEN FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING WHERE THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. SO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
SHOULD BE MINIMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN CONSIDERABLY FROM
LATE SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
TRACKS THROUGH THE ROCKIES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BUNKERS/WFOUNR
LONG TERM...WFOUNR
AVIATION...CAH
FIRE WEATHER...WFOUNR




000
FXUS65 KCYS 240459
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1059 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST ALL OF THE
SHORT TERM (TNGT THRU SAT MRNG). THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO
SLOWLY BUILDING HEIGHTS AND A DOMINANT LARGE-SCALE RIDGE ACROSS
THE CNTRL CONUS. THE MAIN ITEMS OF INTEREST WILL BE GUSTY
SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS AND RELATIVELY WARM WEATHER.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND RAP MODEL ANALYSES INDICATED A
150-KT 300-MB JET CROSSING OVER THE PACIFIC NW WITH CONSIDERABLE
MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE NWRN CONUS. ALTHOUGH A
THICK PATCH OF CIRRUS MOVED ACROSS THE CWA EARLIER TODAY...THE WATER
VAPOR TRAJECTORY SUGGESTS THE BULK OF THE CIRRUS WILL REMAIN NW OF
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY LATE TNGT AND FRI AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS.
UNTIL THEN...EXPECT SOME PERIODIC DENSE CIRRUS PATCHES AS THE JET
INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAINS. BUFKIT TIME-SECTIONS FOR KCYS SUPPORT
THIS AS WELL.

GUSTY SOUTHWEST-WINDS WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY NEAR RIDGE TOPS TNGT AS
700-MB FLOW IS 30-45 KT FROM THE WEST WITH WEAK COLD-ADVECTION THAT
WILL PROMOTE MIXING. LOOKS TO BE JUST BELOW HIGH WIND WRNG CRITERIA
BUT IT DOES BEAR WATCHING. ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY THEY SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT MUTED AS 700-MB WIND SPEEDS DECREASE
BY 5-10 KT AND THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS.

GIVEN THE UPPER RIDGE AND 700-MB TEMPS OF 7-10C ACROSS THE CWA THE
TEMPS WILL BE 15-20F ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM...AND
APPROACHING RECORD LEVELS ON FRIDAY. THE RH ALSO WILL DROP TO NEAR
15 PERCENT ACROSS THE SERN WY PLAINS ON FRI AFTN. FRI NGT WILL AGAIN
BE QUITE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS
RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY. HIGHS WILL
BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA DURING THE DAY.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS FURTHER EAST...ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...WITH CHANCES SPREADING OVER THE REST OF THE CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS COLDER AIR PUSHES IN SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY OVER AT
LEAST THE SOUTH CENTRAL WY MOUNTAINS.

SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A WARMUP POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE UPCOMING PERIOD WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THERE WILL BE A SCT-BKN200 CLOUD LAYER
MOVING OVERHEAD TONIGHT...BUT THIS TOO SHOULD LESSEN BY MIDDAY
FRIDAY. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AIRFIELDS 15-16Z ON FRIDAY WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KNOTS EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL RELAX AROUND SUNSET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

CONTINUED WARM AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS. EXPECT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TO FALL
INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS EACH AFTERNOON. FORTUNATELY...FUELS
ARE REPORTED AS GREEN FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING WHERE THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. SO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
SHOULD BE MINIMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN CONSIDERABLY FROM
LATE SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
TRACKS THROUGH THE ROCKIES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BUNKERS/WFOUNR
LONG TERM...WFOUNR
AVIATION...CAH
FIRE WEATHER...WFOUNR




000
FXUS65 KCYS 240015
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
615 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST ALL OF THE
SHORT TERM (TNGT THRU SAT MRNG). THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO
SLOWLY BUILDING HEIGHTS AND A DOMINANT LARGE-SCALE RIDGE ACROSS
THE CNTRL CONUS. THE MAIN ITEMS OF INTEREST WILL BE GUSTY
SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS AND RELATIVELY WARM WEATHER.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND RAP MODEL ANALYSES INDICATED A
150-KT 300-MB JET CROSSING OVER THE PACIFIC NW WITH CONSIDERABLE
MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE NWRN CONUS. ALTHOUGH A
THICK PATCH OF CIRRUS MOVED ACROSS THE CWA EARLIER TODAY...THE WATER
VAPOR TRAJECTORY SUGGESTS THE BULK OF THE CIRRUS WILL REMAIN NW OF
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY LATE TNGT AND FRI AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS.
UNTIL THEN...EXPECT SOME PERIODIC DENSE CIRRUS PATCHES AS THE JET
INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAINS. BUFKIT TIME-SECTIONS FOR KCYS SUPPORT
THIS AS WELL.

GUSTY SOUTHWEST-WINDS WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY NEAR RIDGE TOPS TNGT AS
700-MB FLOW IS 30-45 KT FROM THE WEST WITH WEAK COLD-ADVECTION THAT
WILL PROMOTE MIXING. LOOKS TO BE JUST BELOW HIGH WIND WRNG CRITERIA
BUT IT DOES BEAR WATCHING. ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY THEY SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT MUTED AS 700-MB WIND SPEEDS DECREASE
BY 5-10 KT AND THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS.

GIVEN THE UPPER RIDGE AND 700-MB TEMPS OF 7-10C ACROSS THE CWA THE
TEMPS WILL BE 15-20F ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM...AND
APPROACHING RECORD LEVELS ON FRIDAY. THE RH ALSO WILL DROP TO NEAR
15 PERCENT ACROSS THE SERN WY PLAINS ON FRI AFTN. FRI NGT WILL AGAIN
BE QUITE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS
RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY. HIGHS WILL
BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA DURING THE DAY.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS FURTHER EAST...ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...WITH CHANCES SPREADING OVER THE REST OF THE CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS COLDER AIR PUSHES IN SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY OVER AT
LEAST THE SOUTH CENTRAL WY MOUNTAINS.

SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A WARMUP POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 614 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE UPCOMING PERIOD WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THERE WILL BE A SCT-BKN200 CLOUD LAYER MOVING
OVERHEAD TONIGHT...BUT THESE TOO SHOULD LESSEN BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.
WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AIRFIELDS 15-16Z
ON FRIDAY WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KNOTS EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

CONTINUED WARM AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS. EXPECT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TO FALL
INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS EACH AFTERNOON. FORTUNATELY...FUELS
ARE REPORTED AS GREEN FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING WHERE THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. SO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
SHOULD BE MINIMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN CONSIDERABLY FROM
LATE SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
TRACKS THROUGH THE ROCKIES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BUNKERS/WFOUNR
LONG TERM...WFOUNR
AVIATION...CAH
FIRE WEATHER...WFOUNR




000
FXUS65 KCYS 232050
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
250 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST ALL OF THE
SHORT TERM (TNGT THRU SAT MRNG). THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO
SLOWLY BUILDING HEIGHTS AND A DOMINANT LARGE-SCALE RIDGE ACROSS
THE CNTRL CONUS. THE MAIN ITEMS OF INTEREST WILL BE GUSTY
SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS AND RELATIVELY WARM WEATHER.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND RAP MODEL ANALYSES INDICATED A
150-KT 300-MB JET CROSSING OVER THE PACIFIC NW WITH CONSIDERABLE
MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE NWRN CONUS. ALTHOUGH A
THICK PATCH OF CIRRUS MOVED ACROSS THE CWA EARLIER TODAY...THE WATER
VAPOR TRAJECTORY SUGGESTS THE BULK OF THE CIRRUS WILL REMAIN NW OF
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY LATE TNGT AND FRI AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS.
UNTIL THEN...EXPECT SOME PERIODIC DENSE CIRRUS PATCHES AS THE JET
INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAINS. BUFKIT TIME-SECTIONS FOR KCYS SUPPORT
THIS AS WELL.

GUSTY SOUTHWEST-WINDS WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY NEAR RIDGE TOPS TNGT AS
700-MB FLOW IS 30-45 KT FROM THE WEST WITH WEAK COLD-ADVECTION THAT
WILL PROMOTE MIXING. LOOKS TO BE JUST BELOW HIGH WIND WRNG CRITERIA
BUT IT DOES BEAR WATCHING. ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY THEY SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT MUTED AS 700-MB WIND SPEEDS DECREASE
BY 5-10 KT AND THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS.

GIVEN THE UPPER RIDGE AND 700-MB TEMPS OF 7-10C ACROSS THE CWA THE
TEMPS WILL BE 15-20F ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM...AND
APPROACHING RECORD LEVELS ON FRIDAY. THE RH ALSO WILL DROP TO NEAR
15 PERCENT ACROSS THE SERN WY PLAINS ON FRI AFTN. FRI NGT WILL AGAIN
BE QUITE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS
RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY. HIGHS WILL
BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA DURING THE DAY.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS FURTHER EAST...ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...WITH CHANCES SPREADING OVER THE REST OF THE CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS COLDER AIR PUSHES IN SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY OVER AT
LEAST THE SOUTH CENTRAL WY MOUNTAINS.

SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A WARMUP POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON OVER
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WY...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 KNOTS
EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

CONTINUED WARM AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS. EXPECT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TO FALL
INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS EACH AFTERNOON. FORTUNATELY...FUELS
ARE REPORTED AS GREEN FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING WHERE THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. SO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
SHOULD BE MINIMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN CONSIDERABLY FROM
LATE SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
TRACKS THROUGH THE ROCKIES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BUNKERS/WFOUNR
LONG TERM...WFOUNR
AVIATION...WFOUNR
FIRE WEATHER...WFOUNR





000
FXUS63 KUNR 232046
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
246 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS BROAD RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGE CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SKIES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ARE PARTLY SUNNY WITH MAINLY THIN CIRRUS CROSSING
THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE WITH LEE
TROF DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ARE IN THE 60S AND 70S...WITH LIGHT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY WITH DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT WINDS PERSISTING. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN ON FRIDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S...WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
CONTINUING.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER AND WARMER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MUCH OF
SUNDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND A DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. COOLER AIR FLOWING INTO THE
REGION WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A BIT
OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL END
ON MONDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S IS THEN EXPECTED FOR
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...10







    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities