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000
FXUS65 KCYS 062346
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
550 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS IS MAINTAINING THE STRATUS DECK
ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE CLOUDS
HAVE LIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY FURTHER WEST INTO CARBON COUNTY WITH
INCREASING SUNSHINE OVER THIS AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER IN THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS WHERE
SBCAPES HAVE INCREASED TO BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG. EXPECT T-STORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING MOUNTAINS AS WELL OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE ATMOSPHERE FURTHER DESTABILIZES HERE. ACROSS
THE EAST...MUCH COOLER TEMPS UNDER THE STRATUS DECK WILL KEEP T-
STORM CHANCES MINIMAL. THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE FOR A STRAY STORM
OR TWO JUST TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
DEPENDING ON WHETHER ANY STORMS FIRE OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE.
OTHERWISE...SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS UNDER
STABLE CONDITIONS AND DECREASING LIFT FROM ABOVE. NORTHERLY WINDS
BEHIND YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT OPENED THE DOOR FOR WILDFIRE SMOKE TO
FILTER INTO OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
PLAINS ARE SEEING VISIBILITIES OF 2 TO 5SM...SO NOT A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT BUT ENOUGH TO BE A NUISANCE. WINDS WILL STEADILY SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY PUSH THE
SMOKE BACK NORTH FOR TONIGHT. FOR TONIGHT...MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL STEADILY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW INCREASING ALONG THE EASTERN PLAINS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY
FOG AND DRIZZLE ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE OVERNIGHT ALONG
WITH SOME FOG POSSIBLY SPILLING INTO THE LARAMIE VALLEY WESTWARD
ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR AS LLVL FLOW STRENGTHENS.

A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY OVER
PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. A BROADER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS
THE WAVE MOVES OVERHEAD AND TEMPS WARM. FURTHER EAST...EXPECT STORMS
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE AND MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST...HOWEVER COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DEPEND ON
WHEN THE STRATUS DECK BREAKS UP. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING LIKELY TIED TO
OROGRAPHICS. HOWEVER...SOME ACTIVITY LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...BUT COVERAGE IN GENERAL LOOKS MORE ISOLATED HERE.
TRENDED POPS TOWARDS THIS THINKING. COULD SEE SOME HEAVY RAIN AND
SMALL HAIL ONCE AGAIN IN A FEW STRONGER STORMS THAT ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY WITH THE ADDITION OF A COLD
FRONT WHICH LOOKS TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING. SO
PERHAPS WILL HAVE A BETTER OVERALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
THROUGH THE DAY. STRONGER STORMS MAY OCCUR FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS AS WELL WITH BETTER INSTABILITY AND SFC FORCING OVER THIS
AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

WITH MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY MIDLVL FLOW IN PLACE ON THURS...WILL
LIKELY SEE A SCATTERED COVERGE OF STORMS BEFORE THINGS DRY
SUBSTANTIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND. PW VALUES ARE AROUND 1 INCH ON
THURS AFTN TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THE GFS DOES SHOW
GOOD INSTABILITY (CAPE VALUES OF 1250-1500) TO THE EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE...SO WOULD BE CONCERNED WITH A STRONG STORM OR TWO.
LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS BY FRI AS A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER
WYOMING. THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHED EAST INTO NEBRASKA WITH
PW VALUES DROPPING BELOW 0.5 INCHES OVER SOUTHEAST WY. HAVE LOWER
POPS ON FRI WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE STILL SHOWING VERY LITTLE STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER COLORADO WITH
SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ON THURS...BEFORE WARMING 10-15 DEGREES INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)

MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF LOW CLOUDS AND HAZE. CIGS WILL LIFT
SLOWLY TONIGHT FOR MOST OF WESTERN NEBRASKA...ALTHOUGH LOW VIS DUE
TO HAZE WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. VIS HAS TRENDED HIGHER THIS
EVENING...SO EXPECT MOST OF THE HAZE TO DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. SOME
PATCHY FOG IS THEN POSSIBLE BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY AROUND
KCYS WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK
WHILE THE WET PATTERN CONTINUES. THEREFORE...NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR TERM. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
DRY AND WARM THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCED SOME FLASH FLOODING INTO MORRILL
COUNTY NEBRASKA SUNDAY EVENING. WHILE THE WATERS HAVE RECEDED...
SOME STANDING WATER MAY REMAIN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
FORTUNATELY...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO. IN ADDITION...CROW CREEK IN CHEYENNE HAS RISEN ABOUT A
FOOT TODAY FROM HEAVY RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED NORTHWEST OF CHEYENNE
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT TO SEE WATER LEVELS CREST THIS
EVENING...WHICH WILL BE WELL BELOW ACTION STAGE. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WHILE THE WET
WEATHER PATTERN IS LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEEKEND IS STARTING
TO LOOK PROMISING WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...TJT/KC
FIRE WEATHER...RJM



000
FXUS65 KCYS 062346
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
550 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS IS MAINTAINING THE STRATUS DECK
ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE CLOUDS
HAVE LIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY FURTHER WEST INTO CARBON COUNTY WITH
INCREASING SUNSHINE OVER THIS AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER IN THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS WHERE
SBCAPES HAVE INCREASED TO BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG. EXPECT T-STORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING MOUNTAINS AS WELL OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE ATMOSPHERE FURTHER DESTABILIZES HERE. ACROSS
THE EAST...MUCH COOLER TEMPS UNDER THE STRATUS DECK WILL KEEP T-
STORM CHANCES MINIMAL. THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE FOR A STRAY STORM
OR TWO JUST TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
DEPENDING ON WHETHER ANY STORMS FIRE OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE.
OTHERWISE...SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS UNDER
STABLE CONDITIONS AND DECREASING LIFT FROM ABOVE. NORTHERLY WINDS
BEHIND YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT OPENED THE DOOR FOR WILDFIRE SMOKE TO
FILTER INTO OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
PLAINS ARE SEEING VISIBILITIES OF 2 TO 5SM...SO NOT A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT BUT ENOUGH TO BE A NUISANCE. WINDS WILL STEADILY SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY PUSH THE
SMOKE BACK NORTH FOR TONIGHT. FOR TONIGHT...MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL STEADILY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW INCREASING ALONG THE EASTERN PLAINS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY
FOG AND DRIZZLE ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE OVERNIGHT ALONG
WITH SOME FOG POSSIBLY SPILLING INTO THE LARAMIE VALLEY WESTWARD
ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR AS LLVL FLOW STRENGTHENS.

A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY OVER
PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. A BROADER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS
THE WAVE MOVES OVERHEAD AND TEMPS WARM. FURTHER EAST...EXPECT STORMS
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE AND MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST...HOWEVER COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DEPEND ON
WHEN THE STRATUS DECK BREAKS UP. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING LIKELY TIED TO
OROGRAPHICS. HOWEVER...SOME ACTIVITY LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...BUT COVERAGE IN GENERAL LOOKS MORE ISOLATED HERE.
TRENDED POPS TOWARDS THIS THINKING. COULD SEE SOME HEAVY RAIN AND
SMALL HAIL ONCE AGAIN IN A FEW STRONGER STORMS THAT ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY WITH THE ADDITION OF A COLD
FRONT WHICH LOOKS TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING. SO
PERHAPS WILL HAVE A BETTER OVERALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
THROUGH THE DAY. STRONGER STORMS MAY OCCUR FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS AS WELL WITH BETTER INSTABILITY AND SFC FORCING OVER THIS
AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

WITH MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY MIDLVL FLOW IN PLACE ON THURS...WILL
LIKELY SEE A SCATTERED COVERGE OF STORMS BEFORE THINGS DRY
SUBSTANTIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND. PW VALUES ARE AROUND 1 INCH ON
THURS AFTN TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THE GFS DOES SHOW
GOOD INSTABILITY (CAPE VALUES OF 1250-1500) TO THE EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE...SO WOULD BE CONCERNED WITH A STRONG STORM OR TWO.
LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS BY FRI AS A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER
WYOMING. THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHED EAST INTO NEBRASKA WITH
PW VALUES DROPPING BELOW 0.5 INCHES OVER SOUTHEAST WY. HAVE LOWER
POPS ON FRI WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE STILL SHOWING VERY LITTLE STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER COLORADO WITH
SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ON THURS...BEFORE WARMING 10-15 DEGREES INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)

MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF LOW CLOUDS AND HAZE. CIGS WILL LIFT
SLOWLY TONIGHT FOR MOST OF WESTERN NEBRASKA...ALTHOUGH LOW VIS DUE
TO HAZE WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. VIS HAS TRENDED HIGHER THIS
EVENING...SO EXPECT MOST OF THE HAZE TO DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. SOME
PATCHY FOG IS THEN POSSIBLE BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY AROUND
KCYS WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK
WHILE THE WET PATTERN CONTINUES. THEREFORE...NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR TERM. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
DRY AND WARM THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCED SOME FLASH FLOODING INTO MORRILL
COUNTY NEBRASKA SUNDAY EVENING. WHILE THE WATERS HAVE RECEDED...
SOME STANDING WATER MAY REMAIN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
FORTUNATELY...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO. IN ADDITION...CROW CREEK IN CHEYENNE HAS RISEN ABOUT A
FOOT TODAY FROM HEAVY RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED NORTHWEST OF CHEYENNE
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT TO SEE WATER LEVELS CREST THIS
EVENING...WHICH WILL BE WELL BELOW ACTION STAGE. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WHILE THE WET
WEATHER PATTERN IS LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEEKEND IS STARTING
TO LOOK PROMISING WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...TJT/KC
FIRE WEATHER...RJM



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KUNR 062316
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
516 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTN
WITH ZONAL FLOW CHANGING TO SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT. SYNOPTIC SCALE
SUBSIDENCE COMBINED WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN EXPECTED
TEMPERATURES IS KEEPING CONVECTIVE SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY EXIST JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER
THE BLACK HILLS FOR AN ISOLATED -TSRA TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AREAS OF SMOKE MAY DECREASE
VISIBILITY IN SOME AREAS AGAIN TONIGHT.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER ERN WY. A WEAK THETA-E RIDGE WILL
DEVELOP MODEST INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON SO WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE POPS. A LOW LEVEL JET AND 850/700MB THETA-E ADVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA SUGGEST THAT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS
UPPER LOW CROSSES CENTRAL CANADA AND SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIP CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY UNDER DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND ANOTHER COUPLE
PASSING WAVES. ECM/GFS BOTH SHOWING A LOW CLOSING OFF OVER MT AND
PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA...WITH THE ECM A BIT STRONGER. THIS
WOULD BRING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA
SATURDAY...BUT THEN BOTH MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING
STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE RESULT IS A DRIER
SOLUTION FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW TO NEAR
AVERAGE WED/THU...WITH TEMPS RISING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 513 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

LCL MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST AROUND THE BLACK HILLS THROUGH
TONIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR CIGS ELSEWHERE. WITH AREA OF SMOKE ACROSS
THE REGION...LCL MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE FROM THE SMOKE.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...7



000
FXUS63 KUNR 062316
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
516 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTN
WITH ZONAL FLOW CHANGING TO SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT. SYNOPTIC SCALE
SUBSIDENCE COMBINED WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN EXPECTED
TEMPERATURES IS KEEPING CONVECTIVE SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY EXIST JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER
THE BLACK HILLS FOR AN ISOLATED -TSRA TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AREAS OF SMOKE MAY DECREASE
VISIBILITY IN SOME AREAS AGAIN TONIGHT.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER ERN WY. A WEAK THETA-E RIDGE WILL
DEVELOP MODEST INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON SO WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE POPS. A LOW LEVEL JET AND 850/700MB THETA-E ADVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA SUGGEST THAT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS
UPPER LOW CROSSES CENTRAL CANADA AND SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIP CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY UNDER DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND ANOTHER COUPLE
PASSING WAVES. ECM/GFS BOTH SHOWING A LOW CLOSING OFF OVER MT AND
PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA...WITH THE ECM A BIT STRONGER. THIS
WOULD BRING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA
SATURDAY...BUT THEN BOTH MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING
STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE RESULT IS A DRIER
SOLUTION FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW TO NEAR
AVERAGE WED/THU...WITH TEMPS RISING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 513 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

LCL MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST AROUND THE BLACK HILLS THROUGH
TONIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR CIGS ELSEWHERE. WITH AREA OF SMOKE ACROSS
THE REGION...LCL MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE FROM THE SMOKE.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...7




000
FXUS65 KCYS 062147
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
347 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS IS MAINTAINING THE STRATUS DECK
ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE CLOUDS
HAVE LIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY FURTHER WEST INTO CARBON COUNTY WITH
INCREASING SUNSHINE OVER THIS AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER IN THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS WHERE
SBCAPES HAVE INCREASED TO BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG. EXPECT T-STORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING MOUNTAINS AS WELL OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE ATMOSPHERE FURTHER DESTABILIZES HERE. ACROSS
THE EAST...MUCH COOLER TEMPS UNDER THE STRATUS DECK WILL KEEP T-
STORM CHANCES MINIMAL. THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE FOR A STRAY STORM
OR TWO JUST TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
DEPENDING ON WHETHER ANY STORMS FIRE OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE.
OTHERWISE...SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS UNDER
STABLE CONDITIONS AND DECREASING LIFT FROM ABOVE. NORTHERLY WINDS
BEHIND YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT OPENED THE DOOR FOR WILDFIRE SMOKE TO
FILTER INTO OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
PLAINS ARE SEEING VISIBILITIES OF 2 TO 5SM...SO NOT A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT BUT ENOUGH TO BE A NUISANCE. WINDS WILL STEADILY SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY PUSH THE
SMOKE BACK NORTH FOR TONIGHT. FOR TONIGHT...MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL STEADILY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW INCREASING ALONG THE EASTERN PLAINS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY
FOG AND DRIZZLE ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE OVERNIGHT ALONG
WITH SOME FOG POSSIBLY SPILLING INTO THE LARAMIE VALLEY WESTWARD
ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR AS LLVL FLOW STRENGTHENS.

A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY OVER
PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. A BROADER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS
THE WAVE MOVES OVERHEAD AND TEMPS WARM. FURTHER EAST...EXPECT STORMS
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE AND MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST...HOWEVER COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DEPEND ON
WHEN THE STRATUS DECK BREAKS UP. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING LIKELY TIED TO
OROGRAPHICS. HOWEVER...SOME ACTIVITY LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...BUT COVERAGE IN GENERAL LOOKS MORE ISOLATED HERE.
TRENDED POPS TOWARDS THIS THINKING. COULD SEE SOME HEAVY RAIN AND
SMALL HAIL ONCE AGAIN IN A FEW STRONGER STORMS THAT ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY WITH THE ADDITION OF A COLD
FRONT WHICH LOOKS TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING. SO
PERHAPS WILL HAVE A BETTER OVERALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
THROUGH THE DAY. STRONGER STORMS MAY OCCUR FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS AS WELL WITH BETTER INSTABILITY AND SFC FORCING OVER THIS
AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

WITH MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY MIDLVL FLOW IN PLACE ON THURS...WILL
LIKELY SEE A SCATTERED COVERGE OF STORMS BEFORE THINGS DRY
SUBSTANTIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND. PW VALUES ARE AROUND 1 INCH ON
THURS AFTN TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THE GFS DOES SHOW
GOOD INSTABILITY (CAPE VALUES OF 1250-1500) TO THE EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE...SO WOULD BE CONCERNED WITH A STRONG STORM OR TWO.
LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS BY FRI AS A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER
WYOMING. THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHED EAST INTO NEBRASKA WITH
PW VALUES DROPPING BELOW 0.5 INCHES OVER SOUTHEAST WY. HAVE LOWER
POPS ON FRI WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE STILL SHOWING VERY LITTLE STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER COLORADO WITH
SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ON THURS...BEFORE WARMING 10-15 DEGREES INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF LOW CLOUDS AND HAZE/SMOKE. THE LOWEST
CIGS WILL BE AT CYS WHERE CLOUD BASES WILL BE 300-700 FT AGL.
CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO RISE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE SMOKE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MVFR VIS.
WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE WEAK AND GENERALLY LESS THAN
15 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK
WHILE THE WET PATTERN CONTINUES. THEREFORE...NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR TERM. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
DRY AND WARM THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCED SOME FLASH FLOODING INTO MORRILL
COUNTY NEBRASKA SUNDAY EVENING. WHILE THE WATERS HAVE RECEDED...
SOME STANDING WATER MAY REMAIN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
FORTUNATELY...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO. IN ADDITION...CROW CREEK IN CHEYENNE HAS RISEN ABOUT A
FOOT TODAY FROM HEAVY RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED NORTHWEST OF CHEYENNE
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT TO SEE WATER LEVELS CREST THIS
EVENING...WHICH WILL BE WELL BELOW ACTION STAGE. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WHILE THE WET
WEATHER PATTERN IS LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEEKEND IS STARTING
TO LOOK PROMISING WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...RJM



000
FXUS65 KCYS 062147
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
347 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS IS MAINTAINING THE STRATUS DECK
ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE CLOUDS
HAVE LIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY FURTHER WEST INTO CARBON COUNTY WITH
INCREASING SUNSHINE OVER THIS AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER IN THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS WHERE
SBCAPES HAVE INCREASED TO BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG. EXPECT T-STORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING MOUNTAINS AS WELL OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE ATMOSPHERE FURTHER DESTABILIZES HERE. ACROSS
THE EAST...MUCH COOLER TEMPS UNDER THE STRATUS DECK WILL KEEP T-
STORM CHANCES MINIMAL. THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE FOR A STRAY STORM
OR TWO JUST TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
DEPENDING ON WHETHER ANY STORMS FIRE OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE.
OTHERWISE...SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS UNDER
STABLE CONDITIONS AND DECREASING LIFT FROM ABOVE. NORTHERLY WINDS
BEHIND YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT OPENED THE DOOR FOR WILDFIRE SMOKE TO
FILTER INTO OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
PLAINS ARE SEEING VISIBILITIES OF 2 TO 5SM...SO NOT A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT BUT ENOUGH TO BE A NUISANCE. WINDS WILL STEADILY SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY PUSH THE
SMOKE BACK NORTH FOR TONIGHT. FOR TONIGHT...MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL STEADILY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW INCREASING ALONG THE EASTERN PLAINS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY
FOG AND DRIZZLE ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE OVERNIGHT ALONG
WITH SOME FOG POSSIBLY SPILLING INTO THE LARAMIE VALLEY WESTWARD
ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR AS LLVL FLOW STRENGTHENS.

A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY OVER
PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. A BROADER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS
THE WAVE MOVES OVERHEAD AND TEMPS WARM. FURTHER EAST...EXPECT STORMS
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE AND MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST...HOWEVER COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DEPEND ON
WHEN THE STRATUS DECK BREAKS UP. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING LIKELY TIED TO
OROGRAPHICS. HOWEVER...SOME ACTIVITY LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...BUT COVERAGE IN GENERAL LOOKS MORE ISOLATED HERE.
TRENDED POPS TOWARDS THIS THINKING. COULD SEE SOME HEAVY RAIN AND
SMALL HAIL ONCE AGAIN IN A FEW STRONGER STORMS THAT ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY WITH THE ADDITION OF A COLD
FRONT WHICH LOOKS TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING. SO
PERHAPS WILL HAVE A BETTER OVERALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
THROUGH THE DAY. STRONGER STORMS MAY OCCUR FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS AS WELL WITH BETTER INSTABILITY AND SFC FORCING OVER THIS
AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

WITH MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY MIDLVL FLOW IN PLACE ON THURS...WILL
LIKELY SEE A SCATTERED COVERGE OF STORMS BEFORE THINGS DRY
SUBSTANTIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND. PW VALUES ARE AROUND 1 INCH ON
THURS AFTN TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THE GFS DOES SHOW
GOOD INSTABILITY (CAPE VALUES OF 1250-1500) TO THE EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE...SO WOULD BE CONCERNED WITH A STRONG STORM OR TWO.
LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS BY FRI AS A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER
WYOMING. THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHED EAST INTO NEBRASKA WITH
PW VALUES DROPPING BELOW 0.5 INCHES OVER SOUTHEAST WY. HAVE LOWER
POPS ON FRI WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE STILL SHOWING VERY LITTLE STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER COLORADO WITH
SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ON THURS...BEFORE WARMING 10-15 DEGREES INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF LOW CLOUDS AND HAZE/SMOKE. THE LOWEST
CIGS WILL BE AT CYS WHERE CLOUD BASES WILL BE 300-700 FT AGL.
CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO RISE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE SMOKE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MVFR VIS.
WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE WEAK AND GENERALLY LESS THAN
15 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK
WHILE THE WET PATTERN CONTINUES. THEREFORE...NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR TERM. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
DRY AND WARM THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCED SOME FLASH FLOODING INTO MORRILL
COUNTY NEBRASKA SUNDAY EVENING. WHILE THE WATERS HAVE RECEDED...
SOME STANDING WATER MAY REMAIN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
FORTUNATELY...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO. IN ADDITION...CROW CREEK IN CHEYENNE HAS RISEN ABOUT A
FOOT TODAY FROM HEAVY RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED NORTHWEST OF CHEYENNE
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT TO SEE WATER LEVELS CREST THIS
EVENING...WHICH WILL BE WELL BELOW ACTION STAGE. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WHILE THE WET
WEATHER PATTERN IS LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEEKEND IS STARTING
TO LOOK PROMISING WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...RJM




000
FXUS65 KCYS 062147
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
347 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS IS MAINTAINING THE STRATUS DECK
ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE CLOUDS
HAVE LIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY FURTHER WEST INTO CARBON COUNTY WITH
INCREASING SUNSHINE OVER THIS AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER IN THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS WHERE
SBCAPES HAVE INCREASED TO BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG. EXPECT T-STORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING MOUNTAINS AS WELL OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE ATMOSPHERE FURTHER DESTABILIZES HERE. ACROSS
THE EAST...MUCH COOLER TEMPS UNDER THE STRATUS DECK WILL KEEP T-
STORM CHANCES MINIMAL. THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE FOR A STRAY STORM
OR TWO JUST TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
DEPENDING ON WHETHER ANY STORMS FIRE OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE.
OTHERWISE...SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS UNDER
STABLE CONDITIONS AND DECREASING LIFT FROM ABOVE. NORTHERLY WINDS
BEHIND YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT OPENED THE DOOR FOR WILDFIRE SMOKE TO
FILTER INTO OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
PLAINS ARE SEEING VISIBILITIES OF 2 TO 5SM...SO NOT A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT BUT ENOUGH TO BE A NUISANCE. WINDS WILL STEADILY SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY PUSH THE
SMOKE BACK NORTH FOR TONIGHT. FOR TONIGHT...MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL STEADILY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW INCREASING ALONG THE EASTERN PLAINS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY
FOG AND DRIZZLE ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE OVERNIGHT ALONG
WITH SOME FOG POSSIBLY SPILLING INTO THE LARAMIE VALLEY WESTWARD
ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR AS LLVL FLOW STRENGTHENS.

A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY OVER
PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. A BROADER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS
THE WAVE MOVES OVERHEAD AND TEMPS WARM. FURTHER EAST...EXPECT STORMS
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE AND MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST...HOWEVER COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DEPEND ON
WHEN THE STRATUS DECK BREAKS UP. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING LIKELY TIED TO
OROGRAPHICS. HOWEVER...SOME ACTIVITY LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...BUT COVERAGE IN GENERAL LOOKS MORE ISOLATED HERE.
TRENDED POPS TOWARDS THIS THINKING. COULD SEE SOME HEAVY RAIN AND
SMALL HAIL ONCE AGAIN IN A FEW STRONGER STORMS THAT ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY WITH THE ADDITION OF A COLD
FRONT WHICH LOOKS TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING. SO
PERHAPS WILL HAVE A BETTER OVERALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
THROUGH THE DAY. STRONGER STORMS MAY OCCUR FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS AS WELL WITH BETTER INSTABILITY AND SFC FORCING OVER THIS
AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

WITH MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY MIDLVL FLOW IN PLACE ON THURS...WILL
LIKELY SEE A SCATTERED COVERGE OF STORMS BEFORE THINGS DRY
SUBSTANTIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND. PW VALUES ARE AROUND 1 INCH ON
THURS AFTN TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THE GFS DOES SHOW
GOOD INSTABILITY (CAPE VALUES OF 1250-1500) TO THE EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE...SO WOULD BE CONCERNED WITH A STRONG STORM OR TWO.
LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS BY FRI AS A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER
WYOMING. THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHED EAST INTO NEBRASKA WITH
PW VALUES DROPPING BELOW 0.5 INCHES OVER SOUTHEAST WY. HAVE LOWER
POPS ON FRI WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE STILL SHOWING VERY LITTLE STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER COLORADO WITH
SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ON THURS...BEFORE WARMING 10-15 DEGREES INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF LOW CLOUDS AND HAZE/SMOKE. THE LOWEST
CIGS WILL BE AT CYS WHERE CLOUD BASES WILL BE 300-700 FT AGL.
CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO RISE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE SMOKE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MVFR VIS.
WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE WEAK AND GENERALLY LESS THAN
15 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK
WHILE THE WET PATTERN CONTINUES. THEREFORE...NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR TERM. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
DRY AND WARM THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCED SOME FLASH FLOODING INTO MORRILL
COUNTY NEBRASKA SUNDAY EVENING. WHILE THE WATERS HAVE RECEDED...
SOME STANDING WATER MAY REMAIN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
FORTUNATELY...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO. IN ADDITION...CROW CREEK IN CHEYENNE HAS RISEN ABOUT A
FOOT TODAY FROM HEAVY RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED NORTHWEST OF CHEYENNE
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT TO SEE WATER LEVELS CREST THIS
EVENING...WHICH WILL BE WELL BELOW ACTION STAGE. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WHILE THE WET
WEATHER PATTERN IS LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEEKEND IS STARTING
TO LOOK PROMISING WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...RJM



000
FXUS63 KUNR 062056
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
256 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTN
WITH ZONAL FLOW CHANGING TO SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT. SYNOPTIC SCALE
SUBSIDENCE COMBINED WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN EXPECTED
TEMPERATURES IS KEEPING CONVECTIVE SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY EXIST JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER
THE BLACK HILLS FOR AN ISOLATED -TSRA TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AREAS OF SMOKE MAY DECREASE
VISIBILILTY IN SOME AREAS AGAIN TONIGHT.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER ERN WY. A WEAK THETA-E RIDGE WILL
DEVELOP MODEST INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON SO WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE POPS. A LOW LEVEL JET AND 850/700MB THETA-E ADVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA SUGGEST THAT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS
UPPER LOW CROSSES CENTRAL CANADA AND SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIP CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY UNDER DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND ANOTHER COUPLE
PASSING WAVES. ECM/GFS BOTH SHOWING A LOW CLOSING OFF OVER MT AND
PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA...WITH THE ECM A BIT STRONGER. THIS
WOULD BRING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA
SATURDAY...BUT THEN BOTH MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING
STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE RESULT IS A DRIER
SOLUTION FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW TO NEAR
AVERAGE WED/THU...WITH TEMPS RISING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA. SOME MVFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE FROM SMOKE. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE REGION
LATER TODAY...WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE




000
FXUS63 KUNR 062056
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
256 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTN
WITH ZONAL FLOW CHANGING TO SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT. SYNOPTIC SCALE
SUBSIDENCE COMBINED WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN EXPECTED
TEMPERATURES IS KEEPING CONVECTIVE SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY EXIST JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER
THE BLACK HILLS FOR AN ISOLATED -TSRA TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AREAS OF SMOKE MAY DECREASE
VISIBILILTY IN SOME AREAS AGAIN TONIGHT.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER ERN WY. A WEAK THETA-E RIDGE WILL
DEVELOP MODEST INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON SO WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE POPS. A LOW LEVEL JET AND 850/700MB THETA-E ADVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA SUGGEST THAT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS
UPPER LOW CROSSES CENTRAL CANADA AND SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIP CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY UNDER DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND ANOTHER COUPLE
PASSING WAVES. ECM/GFS BOTH SHOWING A LOW CLOSING OFF OVER MT AND
PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA...WITH THE ECM A BIT STRONGER. THIS
WOULD BRING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA
SATURDAY...BUT THEN BOTH MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING
STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE RESULT IS A DRIER
SOLUTION FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW TO NEAR
AVERAGE WED/THU...WITH TEMPS RISING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA. SOME MVFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE FROM SMOKE. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE REGION
LATER TODAY...WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE


  [top]

000
FXUS65 KRIW 062015
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
215 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

SMALL BREAK IN THE WEATHER TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS
FORECAST AREA. A FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE FAR WEST.
OTHERWISE...GENERALLY DRY AND A LITTLE HUMID TONIGHT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO PATCHY LOW CLOUDS OR FOG...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE.
THIS SHOULD NOT BE HIGH IMPACT AND DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

FOR TUESDAY...WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH ESTABLISHES OR MOVES OVER
WYOMING. WITH LIFT AND MOISTURE AVAILABLE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS CURRENTLY
INDICATING MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
EITHER WAY...INSTABILITY OVER WEST CENTRAL WYOMING ON TUESDAY
LEADING TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER GOING INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

CONTINUED COOLER AND UNSETTLED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT RAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS
WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES COULD EASILY FALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
FAIRLY HIGH PW AIR OVER THE WEST AND SOUTH WILL INTERACT WITH OUR
COLD FRONT AND A COUPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING IN FROM THE WEST TO
PRODUCE QUITE A BIT OF SHOWER AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS THAT BEGIN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CARRY OVER INTO MY PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IN THE
WEST AND SOUTH. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN FROM THE NORTH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND BE A FOCUS FOR MORE CONVECTION
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MORE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK
MOVING ACROSS MONTANA. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH IT...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL
AND WRN SECTIONS. ON THURSDAY...THE UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST WILL
MOVE ONSHORE WITH AN APPROACHING JET STREAK AND SHORTWAVE MOVING
TOWARDS SWRN WYO BY THURSDAY EVENING WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT AREA LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
THE ODDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALSO INCREASING FURTHER NWD THURSDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE ALONG THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT OPENS UP AND PASSES
ACROSS WRN WYO OR ERN IDAHO ON FRIDAY. THE NW WILL LIKELY SEE THE
HIGHEST PCPN CHANCES THEN. THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER...IF NOT HOT...AND GENERALLY DRY AS
HEIGHTS REBUILD AS THE MONSOONAL HIGH NUDGES TOWARDS THE 4-CORNERS.
SOME DIFFERENCES ON HOW FAST AND HOW FAR NORTH THIS UPPER HIGH WILL
BUILD WITH THE GFS KEEPING IT TO THE SOUTH WITH SOME MONSOONAL
MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD ALREADY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF
BUILDS THE HIGH MORE OVER THE STATE FOR A DRY AND HOT MONDAY. WILL
LIKELY KEEP SOME ISOLD POPS IN YET...ESPECIALLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SURFACE WIND TO PREVAIL THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS BEING SAID...CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER MOST
OF THE AREA TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG OR LOW CLOUDS ARE EVEN POSSIBLE
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AT LOCATIONS FROM KCPR TO KLND.
OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING WITH MORE SUNSHINE ON
TUESDAY. WITH THIS AFTERNOON HEATING...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WITH HIGH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WYOMING. OVERALL...THE AIRMASS WILL BE
STABLE WITH LIGHT SURFACE WIND. THIS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY
POOR SMOKE DISPERSAL THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES OVER
WEST CENTRAL WYOMING BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY SURFACE WIND IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING INTO TUESDAY EVENING. EVEN A
BETTER CHANCE FOR WETTING RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS LATER WEDNESDAY
BOTH EAST AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE...AS THE COOL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER CONTINUES.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KPL
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...KPL
FIRE WEATHER...KPL




000
FXUS65 KRIW 062015
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
215 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

SMALL BREAK IN THE WEATHER TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS
FORECAST AREA. A FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE FAR WEST.
OTHERWISE...GENERALLY DRY AND A LITTLE HUMID TONIGHT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO PATCHY LOW CLOUDS OR FOG...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE.
THIS SHOULD NOT BE HIGH IMPACT AND DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

FOR TUESDAY...WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH ESTABLISHES OR MOVES OVER
WYOMING. WITH LIFT AND MOISTURE AVAILABLE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS CURRENTLY
INDICATING MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
EITHER WAY...INSTABILITY OVER WEST CENTRAL WYOMING ON TUESDAY
LEADING TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER GOING INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

CONTINUED COOLER AND UNSETTLED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT RAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS
WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES COULD EASILY FALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
FAIRLY HIGH PW AIR OVER THE WEST AND SOUTH WILL INTERACT WITH OUR
COLD FRONT AND A COUPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING IN FROM THE WEST TO
PRODUCE QUITE A BIT OF SHOWER AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS THAT BEGIN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CARRY OVER INTO MY PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IN THE
WEST AND SOUTH. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN FROM THE NORTH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND BE A FOCUS FOR MORE CONVECTION
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MORE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK
MOVING ACROSS MONTANA. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH IT...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL
AND WRN SECTIONS. ON THURSDAY...THE UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST WILL
MOVE ONSHORE WITH AN APPROACHING JET STREAK AND SHORTWAVE MOVING
TOWARDS SWRN WYO BY THURSDAY EVENING WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT AREA LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
THE ODDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALSO INCREASING FURTHER NWD THURSDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE ALONG THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT OPENS UP AND PASSES
ACROSS WRN WYO OR ERN IDAHO ON FRIDAY. THE NW WILL LIKELY SEE THE
HIGHEST PCPN CHANCES THEN. THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER...IF NOT HOT...AND GENERALLY DRY AS
HEIGHTS REBUILD AS THE MONSOONAL HIGH NUDGES TOWARDS THE 4-CORNERS.
SOME DIFFERENCES ON HOW FAST AND HOW FAR NORTH THIS UPPER HIGH WILL
BUILD WITH THE GFS KEEPING IT TO THE SOUTH WITH SOME MONSOONAL
MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD ALREADY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF
BUILDS THE HIGH MORE OVER THE STATE FOR A DRY AND HOT MONDAY. WILL
LIKELY KEEP SOME ISOLD POPS IN YET...ESPECIALLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SURFACE WIND TO PREVAIL THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS BEING SAID...CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER MOST
OF THE AREA TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG OR LOW CLOUDS ARE EVEN POSSIBLE
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AT LOCATIONS FROM KCPR TO KLND.
OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING WITH MORE SUNSHINE ON
TUESDAY. WITH THIS AFTERNOON HEATING...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WITH HIGH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WYOMING. OVERALL...THE AIRMASS WILL BE
STABLE WITH LIGHT SURFACE WIND. THIS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY
POOR SMOKE DISPERSAL THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES OVER
WEST CENTRAL WYOMING BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY SURFACE WIND IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING INTO TUESDAY EVENING. EVEN A
BETTER CHANCE FOR WETTING RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS LATER WEDNESDAY
BOTH EAST AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE...AS THE COOL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER CONTINUES.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KPL
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...KPL
FIRE WEATHER...KPL




000
FXUS65 KRIW 062015
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
215 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

SMALL BREAK IN THE WEATHER TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS
FORECAST AREA. A FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE FAR WEST.
OTHERWISE...GENERALLY DRY AND A LITTLE HUMID TONIGHT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO PATCHY LOW CLOUDS OR FOG...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE.
THIS SHOULD NOT BE HIGH IMPACT AND DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

FOR TUESDAY...WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH ESTABLISHES OR MOVES OVER
WYOMING. WITH LIFT AND MOISTURE AVAILABLE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS CURRENTLY
INDICATING MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
EITHER WAY...INSTABILITY OVER WEST CENTRAL WYOMING ON TUESDAY
LEADING TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER GOING INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

CONTINUED COOLER AND UNSETTLED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT RAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS
WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES COULD EASILY FALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
FAIRLY HIGH PW AIR OVER THE WEST AND SOUTH WILL INTERACT WITH OUR
COLD FRONT AND A COUPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING IN FROM THE WEST TO
PRODUCE QUITE A BIT OF SHOWER AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS THAT BEGIN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CARRY OVER INTO MY PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IN THE
WEST AND SOUTH. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN FROM THE NORTH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND BE A FOCUS FOR MORE CONVECTION
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MORE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK
MOVING ACROSS MONTANA. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH IT...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL
AND WRN SECTIONS. ON THURSDAY...THE UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST WILL
MOVE ONSHORE WITH AN APPROACHING JET STREAK AND SHORTWAVE MOVING
TOWARDS SWRN WYO BY THURSDAY EVENING WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT AREA LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
THE ODDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALSO INCREASING FURTHER NWD THURSDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE ALONG THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT OPENS UP AND PASSES
ACROSS WRN WYO OR ERN IDAHO ON FRIDAY. THE NW WILL LIKELY SEE THE
HIGHEST PCPN CHANCES THEN. THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER...IF NOT HOT...AND GENERALLY DRY AS
HEIGHTS REBUILD AS THE MONSOONAL HIGH NUDGES TOWARDS THE 4-CORNERS.
SOME DIFFERENCES ON HOW FAST AND HOW FAR NORTH THIS UPPER HIGH WILL
BUILD WITH THE GFS KEEPING IT TO THE SOUTH WITH SOME MONSOONAL
MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD ALREADY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF
BUILDS THE HIGH MORE OVER THE STATE FOR A DRY AND HOT MONDAY. WILL
LIKELY KEEP SOME ISOLD POPS IN YET...ESPECIALLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SURFACE WIND TO PREVAIL THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS BEING SAID...CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER MOST
OF THE AREA TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG OR LOW CLOUDS ARE EVEN POSSIBLE
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AT LOCATIONS FROM KCPR TO KLND.
OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING WITH MORE SUNSHINE ON
TUESDAY. WITH THIS AFTERNOON HEATING...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WITH HIGH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WYOMING. OVERALL...THE AIRMASS WILL BE
STABLE WITH LIGHT SURFACE WIND. THIS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY
POOR SMOKE DISPERSAL THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES OVER
WEST CENTRAL WYOMING BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY SURFACE WIND IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING INTO TUESDAY EVENING. EVEN A
BETTER CHANCE FOR WETTING RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS LATER WEDNESDAY
BOTH EAST AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE...AS THE COOL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER CONTINUES.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KPL
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...KPL
FIRE WEATHER...KPL




000
FXUS65 KRIW 062015
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
215 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

SMALL BREAK IN THE WEATHER TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS
FORECAST AREA. A FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE FAR WEST.
OTHERWISE...GENERALLY DRY AND A LITTLE HUMID TONIGHT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO PATCHY LOW CLOUDS OR FOG...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE.
THIS SHOULD NOT BE HIGH IMPACT AND DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

FOR TUESDAY...WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH ESTABLISHES OR MOVES OVER
WYOMING. WITH LIFT AND MOISTURE AVAILABLE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS CURRENTLY
INDICATING MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
EITHER WAY...INSTABILITY OVER WEST CENTRAL WYOMING ON TUESDAY
LEADING TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER GOING INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

CONTINUED COOLER AND UNSETTLED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT RAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS
WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES COULD EASILY FALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
FAIRLY HIGH PW AIR OVER THE WEST AND SOUTH WILL INTERACT WITH OUR
COLD FRONT AND A COUPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING IN FROM THE WEST TO
PRODUCE QUITE A BIT OF SHOWER AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS THAT BEGIN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CARRY OVER INTO MY PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IN THE
WEST AND SOUTH. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN FROM THE NORTH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND BE A FOCUS FOR MORE CONVECTION
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MORE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK
MOVING ACROSS MONTANA. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH IT...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL
AND WRN SECTIONS. ON THURSDAY...THE UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST WILL
MOVE ONSHORE WITH AN APPROACHING JET STREAK AND SHORTWAVE MOVING
TOWARDS SWRN WYO BY THURSDAY EVENING WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT AREA LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
THE ODDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALSO INCREASING FURTHER NWD THURSDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE ALONG THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT OPENS UP AND PASSES
ACROSS WRN WYO OR ERN IDAHO ON FRIDAY. THE NW WILL LIKELY SEE THE
HIGHEST PCPN CHANCES THEN. THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER...IF NOT HOT...AND GENERALLY DRY AS
HEIGHTS REBUILD AS THE MONSOONAL HIGH NUDGES TOWARDS THE 4-CORNERS.
SOME DIFFERENCES ON HOW FAST AND HOW FAR NORTH THIS UPPER HIGH WILL
BUILD WITH THE GFS KEEPING IT TO THE SOUTH WITH SOME MONSOONAL
MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD ALREADY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF
BUILDS THE HIGH MORE OVER THE STATE FOR A DRY AND HOT MONDAY. WILL
LIKELY KEEP SOME ISOLD POPS IN YET...ESPECIALLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SURFACE WIND TO PREVAIL THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS BEING SAID...CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER MOST
OF THE AREA TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG OR LOW CLOUDS ARE EVEN POSSIBLE
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AT LOCATIONS FROM KCPR TO KLND.
OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING WITH MORE SUNSHINE ON
TUESDAY. WITH THIS AFTERNOON HEATING...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WITH HIGH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WYOMING. OVERALL...THE AIRMASS WILL BE
STABLE WITH LIGHT SURFACE WIND. THIS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY
POOR SMOKE DISPERSAL THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES OVER
WEST CENTRAL WYOMING BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY SURFACE WIND IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING INTO TUESDAY EVENING. EVEN A
BETTER CHANCE FOR WETTING RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS LATER WEDNESDAY
BOTH EAST AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE...AS THE COOL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER CONTINUES.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KPL
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...KPL
FIRE WEATHER...KPL




000
FXUS65 KRIW 062015
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
215 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

SMALL BREAK IN THE WEATHER TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS
FORECAST AREA. A FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE FAR WEST.
OTHERWISE...GENERALLY DRY AND A LITTLE HUMID TONIGHT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO PATCHY LOW CLOUDS OR FOG...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE.
THIS SHOULD NOT BE HIGH IMPACT AND DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

FOR TUESDAY...WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH ESTABLISHES OR MOVES OVER
WYOMING. WITH LIFT AND MOISTURE AVAILABLE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS CURRENTLY
INDICATING MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
EITHER WAY...INSTABILITY OVER WEST CENTRAL WYOMING ON TUESDAY
LEADING TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER GOING INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

CONTINUED COOLER AND UNSETTLED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT RAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS
WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES COULD EASILY FALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
FAIRLY HIGH PW AIR OVER THE WEST AND SOUTH WILL INTERACT WITH OUR
COLD FRONT AND A COUPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING IN FROM THE WEST TO
PRODUCE QUITE A BIT OF SHOWER AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS THAT BEGIN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CARRY OVER INTO MY PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IN THE
WEST AND SOUTH. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN FROM THE NORTH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND BE A FOCUS FOR MORE CONVECTION
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MORE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK
MOVING ACROSS MONTANA. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH IT...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL
AND WRN SECTIONS. ON THURSDAY...THE UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST WILL
MOVE ONSHORE WITH AN APPROACHING JET STREAK AND SHORTWAVE MOVING
TOWARDS SWRN WYO BY THURSDAY EVENING WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT AREA LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
THE ODDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALSO INCREASING FURTHER NWD THURSDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE ALONG THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT OPENS UP AND PASSES
ACROSS WRN WYO OR ERN IDAHO ON FRIDAY. THE NW WILL LIKELY SEE THE
HIGHEST PCPN CHANCES THEN. THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER...IF NOT HOT...AND GENERALLY DRY AS
HEIGHTS REBUILD AS THE MONSOONAL HIGH NUDGES TOWARDS THE 4-CORNERS.
SOME DIFFERENCES ON HOW FAST AND HOW FAR NORTH THIS UPPER HIGH WILL
BUILD WITH THE GFS KEEPING IT TO THE SOUTH WITH SOME MONSOONAL
MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD ALREADY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF
BUILDS THE HIGH MORE OVER THE STATE FOR A DRY AND HOT MONDAY. WILL
LIKELY KEEP SOME ISOLD POPS IN YET...ESPECIALLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SURFACE WIND TO PREVAIL THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS BEING SAID...CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER MOST
OF THE AREA TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG OR LOW CLOUDS ARE EVEN POSSIBLE
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AT LOCATIONS FROM KCPR TO KLND.
OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING WITH MORE SUNSHINE ON
TUESDAY. WITH THIS AFTERNOON HEATING...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WITH HIGH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WYOMING. OVERALL...THE AIRMASS WILL BE
STABLE WITH LIGHT SURFACE WIND. THIS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY
POOR SMOKE DISPERSAL THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES OVER
WEST CENTRAL WYOMING BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY SURFACE WIND IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING INTO TUESDAY EVENING. EVEN A
BETTER CHANCE FOR WETTING RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS LATER WEDNESDAY
BOTH EAST AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE...AS THE COOL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER CONTINUES.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KPL
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...KPL
FIRE WEATHER...KPL



000
FXUS65 KCYS 061757
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1157 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 554 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

MADE A QUICK UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THEN
EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

RIGHT REAR OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. ALSO SEEING SOME POCKETS OF FOG AND
DRIZZLE DUE TO A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER AND UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL
FLOW ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL GENERALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID MORNING AS
THE MAIN DYNAMICS MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. FOG AND DRIZZLE
POTENTIAL WILL ALSO WANE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CLOUD COVER
AND COOL BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT A MINIMUM EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY. TO THE
WEST A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER
CARBON COUNTY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY BUT SMALL HAIL
AND HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOSTLY DIE OFF THIS EVENING BUT A
FEW MAY LINGER ACROSS THE WEST AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHERN WYOMING. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN NEARLY CONTINUOUS STREAM OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVES THROUGH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HOLD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
DOWN...MAKING FOR RELATIVELY COOL HIGHS AS COMPARED TO NORMAL FOR
EARLY JULY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

ACTIVE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ELEVATED THROUGH THURSDAY. AS WE HEAD
INTO THE WEEKEND...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A DRY PATTERN
FOR SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS
THEY RETROGRADE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES...PUSHING THE ACTIVE PORTION OF THE MID/UPPER FLOW
TO OUR NORTH. SO...WE KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING ON THURSDAY THEN
TAPER DOWN TO VERY LOW POPS BY SATURDAY. BY THE WEEKEND...WE WILL
BE BACK TO PUSHING LOWER 90S IN THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
WITH MID/UPPER 80S IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING EXCEPT 60S TO LOWER 70S IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF LOW CLOUDS AND HAZE/SMOKE. THE LOWEST
CIGS WILL BE AT CYS WHERE CLOUD BASES WILL BE 300-700 FT AGL.
CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO RISE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE SMOKE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MVFR VIS.
WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE WEAK AND GENERALLY LESS THAN
15 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS WEEK AS A WET
WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCED SOME FLASH FLOODING INTO MORRILL
COUNTY NEBRASKA SUNDAY EVENING. WHILE THE WATERS HAVE RECEDED...
SOME STANDING WATER MAY REMAIN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
FORTUNATELY ONCE SHOWERS END THIS MORNING DRYER CONDITIONS WILL
BE IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WHILE THE WET WEATHER PATTERN
IS LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEEKEND IS STARTING TO LOOK
PROMISING WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...SML
HYDROLOGY...SML




000
FXUS65 KCYS 061757
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1157 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 554 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

MADE A QUICK UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THEN
EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

RIGHT REAR OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. ALSO SEEING SOME POCKETS OF FOG AND
DRIZZLE DUE TO A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER AND UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL
FLOW ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL GENERALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID MORNING AS
THE MAIN DYNAMICS MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. FOG AND DRIZZLE
POTENTIAL WILL ALSO WANE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CLOUD COVER
AND COOL BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT A MINIMUM EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY. TO THE
WEST A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER
CARBON COUNTY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY BUT SMALL HAIL
AND HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOSTLY DIE OFF THIS EVENING BUT A
FEW MAY LINGER ACROSS THE WEST AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHERN WYOMING. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN NEARLY CONTINUOUS STREAM OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVES THROUGH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HOLD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
DOWN...MAKING FOR RELATIVELY COOL HIGHS AS COMPARED TO NORMAL FOR
EARLY JULY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

ACTIVE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ELEVATED THROUGH THURSDAY. AS WE HEAD
INTO THE WEEKEND...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A DRY PATTERN
FOR SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS
THEY RETROGRADE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES...PUSHING THE ACTIVE PORTION OF THE MID/UPPER FLOW
TO OUR NORTH. SO...WE KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING ON THURSDAY THEN
TAPER DOWN TO VERY LOW POPS BY SATURDAY. BY THE WEEKEND...WE WILL
BE BACK TO PUSHING LOWER 90S IN THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
WITH MID/UPPER 80S IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING EXCEPT 60S TO LOWER 70S IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF LOW CLOUDS AND HAZE/SMOKE. THE LOWEST
CIGS WILL BE AT CYS WHERE CLOUD BASES WILL BE 300-700 FT AGL.
CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO RISE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE SMOKE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MVFR VIS.
WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE WEAK AND GENERALLY LESS THAN
15 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS WEEK AS A WET
WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCED SOME FLASH FLOODING INTO MORRILL
COUNTY NEBRASKA SUNDAY EVENING. WHILE THE WATERS HAVE RECEDED...
SOME STANDING WATER MAY REMAIN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
FORTUNATELY ONCE SHOWERS END THIS MORNING DRYER CONDITIONS WILL
BE IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WHILE THE WET WEATHER PATTERN
IS LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEEKEND IS STARTING TO LOOK
PROMISING WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...SML
HYDROLOGY...SML




000
FXUS65 KCYS 061757
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1157 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 554 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

MADE A QUICK UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THEN
EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

RIGHT REAR OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. ALSO SEEING SOME POCKETS OF FOG AND
DRIZZLE DUE TO A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER AND UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL
FLOW ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL GENERALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID MORNING AS
THE MAIN DYNAMICS MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. FOG AND DRIZZLE
POTENTIAL WILL ALSO WANE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CLOUD COVER
AND COOL BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT A MINIMUM EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY. TO THE
WEST A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER
CARBON COUNTY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY BUT SMALL HAIL
AND HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOSTLY DIE OFF THIS EVENING BUT A
FEW MAY LINGER ACROSS THE WEST AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHERN WYOMING. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN NEARLY CONTINUOUS STREAM OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVES THROUGH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HOLD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
DOWN...MAKING FOR RELATIVELY COOL HIGHS AS COMPARED TO NORMAL FOR
EARLY JULY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

ACTIVE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ELEVATED THROUGH THURSDAY. AS WE HEAD
INTO THE WEEKEND...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A DRY PATTERN
FOR SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS
THEY RETROGRADE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES...PUSHING THE ACTIVE PORTION OF THE MID/UPPER FLOW
TO OUR NORTH. SO...WE KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING ON THURSDAY THEN
TAPER DOWN TO VERY LOW POPS BY SATURDAY. BY THE WEEKEND...WE WILL
BE BACK TO PUSHING LOWER 90S IN THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
WITH MID/UPPER 80S IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING EXCEPT 60S TO LOWER 70S IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF LOW CLOUDS AND HAZE/SMOKE. THE LOWEST
CIGS WILL BE AT CYS WHERE CLOUD BASES WILL BE 300-700 FT AGL.
CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO RISE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE SMOKE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MVFR VIS.
WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE WEAK AND GENERALLY LESS THAN
15 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS WEEK AS A WET
WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCED SOME FLASH FLOODING INTO MORRILL
COUNTY NEBRASKA SUNDAY EVENING. WHILE THE WATERS HAVE RECEDED...
SOME STANDING WATER MAY REMAIN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
FORTUNATELY ONCE SHOWERS END THIS MORNING DRYER CONDITIONS WILL
BE IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WHILE THE WET WEATHER PATTERN
IS LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEEKEND IS STARTING TO LOOK
PROMISING WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...SML
HYDROLOGY...SML




000
FXUS65 KCYS 061757
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1157 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 554 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

MADE A QUICK UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THEN
EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

RIGHT REAR OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. ALSO SEEING SOME POCKETS OF FOG AND
DRIZZLE DUE TO A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER AND UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL
FLOW ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL GENERALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID MORNING AS
THE MAIN DYNAMICS MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. FOG AND DRIZZLE
POTENTIAL WILL ALSO WANE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CLOUD COVER
AND COOL BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT A MINIMUM EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY. TO THE
WEST A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER
CARBON COUNTY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY BUT SMALL HAIL
AND HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOSTLY DIE OFF THIS EVENING BUT A
FEW MAY LINGER ACROSS THE WEST AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHERN WYOMING. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN NEARLY CONTINUOUS STREAM OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVES THROUGH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HOLD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
DOWN...MAKING FOR RELATIVELY COOL HIGHS AS COMPARED TO NORMAL FOR
EARLY JULY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

ACTIVE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ELEVATED THROUGH THURSDAY. AS WE HEAD
INTO THE WEEKEND...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A DRY PATTERN
FOR SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS
THEY RETROGRADE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES...PUSHING THE ACTIVE PORTION OF THE MID/UPPER FLOW
TO OUR NORTH. SO...WE KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING ON THURSDAY THEN
TAPER DOWN TO VERY LOW POPS BY SATURDAY. BY THE WEEKEND...WE WILL
BE BACK TO PUSHING LOWER 90S IN THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
WITH MID/UPPER 80S IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING EXCEPT 60S TO LOWER 70S IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF LOW CLOUDS AND HAZE/SMOKE. THE LOWEST
CIGS WILL BE AT CYS WHERE CLOUD BASES WILL BE 300-700 FT AGL.
CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO RISE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE SMOKE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MVFR VIS.
WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE WEAK AND GENERALLY LESS THAN
15 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS WEEK AS A WET
WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCED SOME FLASH FLOODING INTO MORRILL
COUNTY NEBRASKA SUNDAY EVENING. WHILE THE WATERS HAVE RECEDED...
SOME STANDING WATER MAY REMAIN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
FORTUNATELY ONCE SHOWERS END THIS MORNING DRYER CONDITIONS WILL
BE IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WHILE THE WET WEATHER PATTERN
IS LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEEKEND IS STARTING TO LOOK
PROMISING WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...SML
HYDROLOGY...SML




000
FXUS65 KCYS 061757
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1157 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 554 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

MADE A QUICK UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THEN
EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

RIGHT REAR OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. ALSO SEEING SOME POCKETS OF FOG AND
DRIZZLE DUE TO A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER AND UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL
FLOW ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL GENERALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID MORNING AS
THE MAIN DYNAMICS MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. FOG AND DRIZZLE
POTENTIAL WILL ALSO WANE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CLOUD COVER
AND COOL BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT A MINIMUM EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY. TO THE
WEST A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER
CARBON COUNTY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY BUT SMALL HAIL
AND HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOSTLY DIE OFF THIS EVENING BUT A
FEW MAY LINGER ACROSS THE WEST AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHERN WYOMING. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN NEARLY CONTINUOUS STREAM OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVES THROUGH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HOLD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
DOWN...MAKING FOR RELATIVELY COOL HIGHS AS COMPARED TO NORMAL FOR
EARLY JULY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

ACTIVE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ELEVATED THROUGH THURSDAY. AS WE HEAD
INTO THE WEEKEND...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A DRY PATTERN
FOR SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS
THEY RETROGRADE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES...PUSHING THE ACTIVE PORTION OF THE MID/UPPER FLOW
TO OUR NORTH. SO...WE KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING ON THURSDAY THEN
TAPER DOWN TO VERY LOW POPS BY SATURDAY. BY THE WEEKEND...WE WILL
BE BACK TO PUSHING LOWER 90S IN THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
WITH MID/UPPER 80S IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING EXCEPT 60S TO LOWER 70S IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF LOW CLOUDS AND HAZE/SMOKE. THE LOWEST
CIGS WILL BE AT CYS WHERE CLOUD BASES WILL BE 300-700 FT AGL.
CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO RISE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE SMOKE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MVFR VIS.
WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE WEAK AND GENERALLY LESS THAN
15 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS WEEK AS A WET
WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCED SOME FLASH FLOODING INTO MORRILL
COUNTY NEBRASKA SUNDAY EVENING. WHILE THE WATERS HAVE RECEDED...
SOME STANDING WATER MAY REMAIN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
FORTUNATELY ONCE SHOWERS END THIS MORNING DRYER CONDITIONS WILL
BE IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WHILE THE WET WEATHER PATTERN
IS LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEEKEND IS STARTING TO LOOK
PROMISING WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...SML
HYDROLOGY...SML



000
FXUS65 KCYS 061757
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1157 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 554 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

MADE A QUICK UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THEN
EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

RIGHT REAR OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. ALSO SEEING SOME POCKETS OF FOG AND
DRIZZLE DUE TO A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER AND UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL
FLOW ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL GENERALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID MORNING AS
THE MAIN DYNAMICS MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. FOG AND DRIZZLE
POTENTIAL WILL ALSO WANE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CLOUD COVER
AND COOL BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT A MINIMUM EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY. TO THE
WEST A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER
CARBON COUNTY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY BUT SMALL HAIL
AND HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOSTLY DIE OFF THIS EVENING BUT A
FEW MAY LINGER ACROSS THE WEST AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHERN WYOMING. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN NEARLY CONTINUOUS STREAM OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVES THROUGH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HOLD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
DOWN...MAKING FOR RELATIVELY COOL HIGHS AS COMPARED TO NORMAL FOR
EARLY JULY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

ACTIVE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ELEVATED THROUGH THURSDAY. AS WE HEAD
INTO THE WEEKEND...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A DRY PATTERN
FOR SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS
THEY RETROGRADE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES...PUSHING THE ACTIVE PORTION OF THE MID/UPPER FLOW
TO OUR NORTH. SO...WE KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING ON THURSDAY THEN
TAPER DOWN TO VERY LOW POPS BY SATURDAY. BY THE WEEKEND...WE WILL
BE BACK TO PUSHING LOWER 90S IN THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
WITH MID/UPPER 80S IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING EXCEPT 60S TO LOWER 70S IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF LOW CLOUDS AND HAZE/SMOKE. THE LOWEST
CIGS WILL BE AT CYS WHERE CLOUD BASES WILL BE 300-700 FT AGL.
CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO RISE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE SMOKE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MVFR VIS.
WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE WEAK AND GENERALLY LESS THAN
15 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS WEEK AS A WET
WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCED SOME FLASH FLOODING INTO MORRILL
COUNTY NEBRASKA SUNDAY EVENING. WHILE THE WATERS HAVE RECEDED...
SOME STANDING WATER MAY REMAIN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
FORTUNATELY ONCE SHOWERS END THIS MORNING DRYER CONDITIONS WILL
BE IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WHILE THE WET WEATHER PATTERN
IS LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEEKEND IS STARTING TO LOOK
PROMISING WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...SML
HYDROLOGY...SML




000
FXUS65 KRIW 061752
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1152 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES ACROSS THE COWBOY STATE. IT FEELS A
LOT MORE LIKE APRIL THAN JULY THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD 50S
ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH CLOUDS. AREAS OF RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...MAINLY OF THE LIGHT TO MODERATE VARIETY BUT WITH
SOME POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN. AND YES...THERE COULD BE SOME OF THE
WHITE STUFF IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT REMAINING ABOVE PASS
LEVEL AND PROBABLY ABOVE 11000 FEET. THE RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. AFTER THAT...THERE SHOULD BE A
DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AS SOME DRIER AIR WORKS ITS
WAY IN FROM THE NORTH COURTESY OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL
DROP IN FROM MONTANA. THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING
IN LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATERS THROUGH THE DAY FROM THE NORTH TO THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT THE THE SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME MORE SPARSE THAT
WAY AS WELL EAST OF THE DIVIDE.AS FOR THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...THE BEST CHANCE WOULD BE WEST OF THE DIVIDE WHERE
THE BEST INSTABILITY IS STILL FOUND. WE LEFT IT IN EVERYWHERE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT SEE ONCE SINCE
INSTABILITY IS LACKING WITH THE CLOUD COVER. THE NEXT QUESTION IS
TEMPERATURES. IF THIS WAS JANUARY...WE COULD BE TALKING ABOUT
FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY. BUT THIS IS JULY...SO THAT WILL
NOT HAPPEN. A LOT DEPENDS ON IF THERE IS ANY CLEARING. THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WOULD BE IN THE BIG HORN BASIN WHERE THE CLEARING WILL
BE EARLIER. FOR NOW...WE LEFT CONTINUITY ALONE SINCE IT SEEMED LIKE
A REASONABLE COMPROMISE. SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE WEST TONIGHT
WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE EAST.

BY TUESDAY...IT LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE ONCE AGAIN AS A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH AND A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL AGAIN INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...THESE LOOK LIKE MORE
OF THE GARDEN VARIETY OF THUNDERSTORMS AS MODELS HAVE AS INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE.
WITH MORE SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THERE
SHOULD TAPER OFF AGAIN AS WE HEAD INTO THE NIGHT HOURS BUT A FEW
WILL LINGER EVEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY IT LOOKS LIKE MORE OF THE SAME WITH
EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA WITH
A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. THERE A BETTER CHANCE FOR A FEW
STRONGER STORMS ON THIS DAY AS THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH. IN ADDITION...NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL BE SEE
SOME BETTER UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE COURTESY OF THE RIGHT REAR QUAD
OF A JET STREAK. AS A RESULT...THE BEST CHANCE OF A STRONGER STORM
WOULD BE IN THE BIG HORN BASIN AND JOHNSON COUNTY. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM AS WELL AS THE AIR MASS BECOMES MORE MODIFIED.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING THE UPPER LOW INLAND
INTO CALIFORNIA THURSDAY WITH A SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
WY. UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENT FLOW WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. STORM COVERAGE LOOKS BETTER OVER THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST THURS AFTERNOON. THURS EVENING SHOULD SEE COVERAGE
INCREASE EAST OF THE DIVIDE. THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP THURSDAY NIGHT
AS IT MOVES INTO NEVADA. THEN THE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO IDAHO FRIDAY
AND MOVES THROUGH WESTERN WY FRI NIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
FRIDAY WITH BEST STORM CHANCES IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST PART OF
WY WITH MAINLY ISOLATED COVERAGE ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY LOOKS DRIER
FOR MOST PLACES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THE NORTHWEST.
ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND FAR NORTHERN WY SATURDAY.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
PUSHES NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. 700MB TEMPS WARM UP AND SUMMERTIME HEAT RETURNS TO THE
AREA BOTH DAYS. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST AND MAINLY
OVER OR NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

ALL ROUTES...VFR TO PREVAIL REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. PATCHY
AREAS OF FOG COULD DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT BOTH SIDES OF THE DIVIDE.
OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL...CUMULUS...CEILINGS TO REMAIN ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE DIVIDE. ONLY ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE UNTIL 03Z TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

UNSEASONABLY COOL TODAY WITH A CONTINUING CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DRIER
AIR MAY WORK INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE ABOVE 10500 FEET BUT ACCUMULATION
WILL BE SMALL GIVEN RECENT WARM WEATHER AND GROUND TEMPERATURES.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS WITH WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...HATTINGS
AVIATION...KPL
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS



000
FXUS65 KRIW 061752
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1152 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES ACROSS THE COWBOY STATE. IT FEELS A
LOT MORE LIKE APRIL THAN JULY THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD 50S
ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH CLOUDS. AREAS OF RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...MAINLY OF THE LIGHT TO MODERATE VARIETY BUT WITH
SOME POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN. AND YES...THERE COULD BE SOME OF THE
WHITE STUFF IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT REMAINING ABOVE PASS
LEVEL AND PROBABLY ABOVE 11000 FEET. THE RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. AFTER THAT...THERE SHOULD BE A
DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AS SOME DRIER AIR WORKS ITS
WAY IN FROM THE NORTH COURTESY OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL
DROP IN FROM MONTANA. THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING
IN LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATERS THROUGH THE DAY FROM THE NORTH TO THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT THE THE SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME MORE SPARSE THAT
WAY AS WELL EAST OF THE DIVIDE.AS FOR THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...THE BEST CHANCE WOULD BE WEST OF THE DIVIDE WHERE
THE BEST INSTABILITY IS STILL FOUND. WE LEFT IT IN EVERYWHERE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT SEE ONCE SINCE
INSTABILITY IS LACKING WITH THE CLOUD COVER. THE NEXT QUESTION IS
TEMPERATURES. IF THIS WAS JANUARY...WE COULD BE TALKING ABOUT
FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY. BUT THIS IS JULY...SO THAT WILL
NOT HAPPEN. A LOT DEPENDS ON IF THERE IS ANY CLEARING. THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WOULD BE IN THE BIG HORN BASIN WHERE THE CLEARING WILL
BE EARLIER. FOR NOW...WE LEFT CONTINUITY ALONE SINCE IT SEEMED LIKE
A REASONABLE COMPROMISE. SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE WEST TONIGHT
WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE EAST.

BY TUESDAY...IT LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE ONCE AGAIN AS A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH AND A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL AGAIN INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...THESE LOOK LIKE MORE
OF THE GARDEN VARIETY OF THUNDERSTORMS AS MODELS HAVE AS INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE.
WITH MORE SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THERE
SHOULD TAPER OFF AGAIN AS WE HEAD INTO THE NIGHT HOURS BUT A FEW
WILL LINGER EVEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY IT LOOKS LIKE MORE OF THE SAME WITH
EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA WITH
A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. THERE A BETTER CHANCE FOR A FEW
STRONGER STORMS ON THIS DAY AS THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH. IN ADDITION...NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL BE SEE
SOME BETTER UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE COURTESY OF THE RIGHT REAR QUAD
OF A JET STREAK. AS A RESULT...THE BEST CHANCE OF A STRONGER STORM
WOULD BE IN THE BIG HORN BASIN AND JOHNSON COUNTY. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM AS WELL AS THE AIR MASS BECOMES MORE MODIFIED.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING THE UPPER LOW INLAND
INTO CALIFORNIA THURSDAY WITH A SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
WY. UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENT FLOW WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. STORM COVERAGE LOOKS BETTER OVER THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST THURS AFTERNOON. THURS EVENING SHOULD SEE COVERAGE
INCREASE EAST OF THE DIVIDE. THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP THURSDAY NIGHT
AS IT MOVES INTO NEVADA. THEN THE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO IDAHO FRIDAY
AND MOVES THROUGH WESTERN WY FRI NIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
FRIDAY WITH BEST STORM CHANCES IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST PART OF
WY WITH MAINLY ISOLATED COVERAGE ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY LOOKS DRIER
FOR MOST PLACES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THE NORTHWEST.
ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND FAR NORTHERN WY SATURDAY.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
PUSHES NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. 700MB TEMPS WARM UP AND SUMMERTIME HEAT RETURNS TO THE
AREA BOTH DAYS. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST AND MAINLY
OVER OR NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

ALL ROUTES...VFR TO PREVAIL REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. PATCHY
AREAS OF FOG COULD DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT BOTH SIDES OF THE DIVIDE.
OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL...CUMULUS...CEILINGS TO REMAIN ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE DIVIDE. ONLY ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE UNTIL 03Z TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

UNSEASONABLY COOL TODAY WITH A CONTINUING CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DRIER
AIR MAY WORK INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE ABOVE 10500 FEET BUT ACCUMULATION
WILL BE SMALL GIVEN RECENT WARM WEATHER AND GROUND TEMPERATURES.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS WITH WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...HATTINGS
AVIATION...KPL
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS



000
FXUS65 KRIW 061752
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1152 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES ACROSS THE COWBOY STATE. IT FEELS A
LOT MORE LIKE APRIL THAN JULY THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD 50S
ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH CLOUDS. AREAS OF RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...MAINLY OF THE LIGHT TO MODERATE VARIETY BUT WITH
SOME POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN. AND YES...THERE COULD BE SOME OF THE
WHITE STUFF IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT REMAINING ABOVE PASS
LEVEL AND PROBABLY ABOVE 11000 FEET. THE RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. AFTER THAT...THERE SHOULD BE A
DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AS SOME DRIER AIR WORKS ITS
WAY IN FROM THE NORTH COURTESY OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL
DROP IN FROM MONTANA. THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING
IN LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATERS THROUGH THE DAY FROM THE NORTH TO THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT THE THE SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME MORE SPARSE THAT
WAY AS WELL EAST OF THE DIVIDE.AS FOR THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...THE BEST CHANCE WOULD BE WEST OF THE DIVIDE WHERE
THE BEST INSTABILITY IS STILL FOUND. WE LEFT IT IN EVERYWHERE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT SEE ONCE SINCE
INSTABILITY IS LACKING WITH THE CLOUD COVER. THE NEXT QUESTION IS
TEMPERATURES. IF THIS WAS JANUARY...WE COULD BE TALKING ABOUT
FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY. BUT THIS IS JULY...SO THAT WILL
NOT HAPPEN. A LOT DEPENDS ON IF THERE IS ANY CLEARING. THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WOULD BE IN THE BIG HORN BASIN WHERE THE CLEARING WILL
BE EARLIER. FOR NOW...WE LEFT CONTINUITY ALONE SINCE IT SEEMED LIKE
A REASONABLE COMPROMISE. SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE WEST TONIGHT
WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE EAST.

BY TUESDAY...IT LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE ONCE AGAIN AS A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH AND A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL AGAIN INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...THESE LOOK LIKE MORE
OF THE GARDEN VARIETY OF THUNDERSTORMS AS MODELS HAVE AS INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE.
WITH MORE SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THERE
SHOULD TAPER OFF AGAIN AS WE HEAD INTO THE NIGHT HOURS BUT A FEW
WILL LINGER EVEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY IT LOOKS LIKE MORE OF THE SAME WITH
EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA WITH
A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. THERE A BETTER CHANCE FOR A FEW
STRONGER STORMS ON THIS DAY AS THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH. IN ADDITION...NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL BE SEE
SOME BETTER UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE COURTESY OF THE RIGHT REAR QUAD
OF A JET STREAK. AS A RESULT...THE BEST CHANCE OF A STRONGER STORM
WOULD BE IN THE BIG HORN BASIN AND JOHNSON COUNTY. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM AS WELL AS THE AIR MASS BECOMES MORE MODIFIED.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING THE UPPER LOW INLAND
INTO CALIFORNIA THURSDAY WITH A SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
WY. UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENT FLOW WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. STORM COVERAGE LOOKS BETTER OVER THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST THURS AFTERNOON. THURS EVENING SHOULD SEE COVERAGE
INCREASE EAST OF THE DIVIDE. THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP THURSDAY NIGHT
AS IT MOVES INTO NEVADA. THEN THE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO IDAHO FRIDAY
AND MOVES THROUGH WESTERN WY FRI NIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
FRIDAY WITH BEST STORM CHANCES IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST PART OF
WY WITH MAINLY ISOLATED COVERAGE ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY LOOKS DRIER
FOR MOST PLACES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THE NORTHWEST.
ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND FAR NORTHERN WY SATURDAY.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
PUSHES NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. 700MB TEMPS WARM UP AND SUMMERTIME HEAT RETURNS TO THE
AREA BOTH DAYS. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST AND MAINLY
OVER OR NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

ALL ROUTES...VFR TO PREVAIL REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. PATCHY
AREAS OF FOG COULD DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT BOTH SIDES OF THE DIVIDE.
OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL...CUMULUS...CEILINGS TO REMAIN ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE DIVIDE. ONLY ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE UNTIL 03Z TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

UNSEASONABLY COOL TODAY WITH A CONTINUING CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DRIER
AIR MAY WORK INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE ABOVE 10500 FEET BUT ACCUMULATION
WILL BE SMALL GIVEN RECENT WARM WEATHER AND GROUND TEMPERATURES.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS WITH WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...HATTINGS
AVIATION...KPL
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS




000
FXUS65 KRIW 061752
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1152 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES ACROSS THE COWBOY STATE. IT FEELS A
LOT MORE LIKE APRIL THAN JULY THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD 50S
ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH CLOUDS. AREAS OF RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...MAINLY OF THE LIGHT TO MODERATE VARIETY BUT WITH
SOME POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN. AND YES...THERE COULD BE SOME OF THE
WHITE STUFF IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT REMAINING ABOVE PASS
LEVEL AND PROBABLY ABOVE 11000 FEET. THE RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. AFTER THAT...THERE SHOULD BE A
DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AS SOME DRIER AIR WORKS ITS
WAY IN FROM THE NORTH COURTESY OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL
DROP IN FROM MONTANA. THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING
IN LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATERS THROUGH THE DAY FROM THE NORTH TO THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT THE THE SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME MORE SPARSE THAT
WAY AS WELL EAST OF THE DIVIDE.AS FOR THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...THE BEST CHANCE WOULD BE WEST OF THE DIVIDE WHERE
THE BEST INSTABILITY IS STILL FOUND. WE LEFT IT IN EVERYWHERE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT SEE ONCE SINCE
INSTABILITY IS LACKING WITH THE CLOUD COVER. THE NEXT QUESTION IS
TEMPERATURES. IF THIS WAS JANUARY...WE COULD BE TALKING ABOUT
FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY. BUT THIS IS JULY...SO THAT WILL
NOT HAPPEN. A LOT DEPENDS ON IF THERE IS ANY CLEARING. THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WOULD BE IN THE BIG HORN BASIN WHERE THE CLEARING WILL
BE EARLIER. FOR NOW...WE LEFT CONTINUITY ALONE SINCE IT SEEMED LIKE
A REASONABLE COMPROMISE. SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE WEST TONIGHT
WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE EAST.

BY TUESDAY...IT LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE ONCE AGAIN AS A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH AND A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL AGAIN INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...THESE LOOK LIKE MORE
OF THE GARDEN VARIETY OF THUNDERSTORMS AS MODELS HAVE AS INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE.
WITH MORE SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THERE
SHOULD TAPER OFF AGAIN AS WE HEAD INTO THE NIGHT HOURS BUT A FEW
WILL LINGER EVEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY IT LOOKS LIKE MORE OF THE SAME WITH
EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA WITH
A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. THERE A BETTER CHANCE FOR A FEW
STRONGER STORMS ON THIS DAY AS THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH. IN ADDITION...NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL BE SEE
SOME BETTER UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE COURTESY OF THE RIGHT REAR QUAD
OF A JET STREAK. AS A RESULT...THE BEST CHANCE OF A STRONGER STORM
WOULD BE IN THE BIG HORN BASIN AND JOHNSON COUNTY. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM AS WELL AS THE AIR MASS BECOMES MORE MODIFIED.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING THE UPPER LOW INLAND
INTO CALIFORNIA THURSDAY WITH A SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
WY. UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENT FLOW WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. STORM COVERAGE LOOKS BETTER OVER THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST THURS AFTERNOON. THURS EVENING SHOULD SEE COVERAGE
INCREASE EAST OF THE DIVIDE. THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP THURSDAY NIGHT
AS IT MOVES INTO NEVADA. THEN THE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO IDAHO FRIDAY
AND MOVES THROUGH WESTERN WY FRI NIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
FRIDAY WITH BEST STORM CHANCES IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST PART OF
WY WITH MAINLY ISOLATED COVERAGE ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY LOOKS DRIER
FOR MOST PLACES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THE NORTHWEST.
ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND FAR NORTHERN WY SATURDAY.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
PUSHES NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. 700MB TEMPS WARM UP AND SUMMERTIME HEAT RETURNS TO THE
AREA BOTH DAYS. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST AND MAINLY
OVER OR NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

ALL ROUTES...VFR TO PREVAIL REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. PATCHY
AREAS OF FOG COULD DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT BOTH SIDES OF THE DIVIDE.
OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL...CUMULUS...CEILINGS TO REMAIN ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE DIVIDE. ONLY ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE UNTIL 03Z TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

UNSEASONABLY COOL TODAY WITH A CONTINUING CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DRIER
AIR MAY WORK INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE ABOVE 10500 FEET BUT ACCUMULATION
WILL BE SMALL GIVEN RECENT WARM WEATHER AND GROUND TEMPERATURES.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS WITH WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...HATTINGS
AVIATION...KPL
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS




000
FXUS63 KUNR 061652
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1052 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER MT PUSHING COLD FRONT
DEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO MT/WY PUSHING EASTWARD EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 100KT JET STREAK SUPPORTING
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE CWA. MAIN MCS NOW INTO THE
MIDWEST. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST THIS MORNING WITH A
FEW SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT CONTINUING...SO NOW HAVE POPS FOR MUCH OF
THE MORNING. CONDITIONS DRY OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH
MOVES IN AND IMPLIED SUBSIDENCE BEHIND UPPER FEATURES AFFECT THE
CWA. LEFTOVER 500J/KG SBCAPE NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK
HILLS MAY SUPPORT -TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. SC/SMOKE WILL AFFECT MUCH
OF THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH TOO WARM IF
SC/SMOKE IS THICK ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...QUIET NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND SOME FU.

TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST WITH RETURN FLOW OVER NORTHEAST
WY. THETA-E RIDGE/MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPS...WHICH WARRANTS POPS
DURING DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET/850-700MB THETA-E
ADVECTION SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AS AN UPPER
TROUGH CROSSES CNTRL CANADA...ALONG WITH AN UPPER LOW ACROSS CNTRL
PAC COAST. AS UPPER WAVES CROSS THE PLAINS...STORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA WED/THU. ECM/GFS NOW IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW PHASING BACK IN VIA THE NRN
ROCKIES...WHICH BRINGS STRONGER UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CNTRL
CONUS. THE RESULT IS A DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL STILL BE OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR ISOLATED
STORMS...BUT WILL BE PRIMARILY LIMITED TO FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW TO NEAR AVERAGE WED/THU...THEN AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS IN...TEMPS WILL RISE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 1051 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
FOR NORTHEAST WY INTO THE BLACK HILLS AREA. SOME MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE
FROM SMOKE. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE REGION LATER
TODAY...WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...POJORLIE



000
FXUS63 KUNR 061652
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1052 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER MT PUSHING COLD FRONT
DEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO MT/WY PUSHING EASTWARD EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 100KT JET STREAK SUPPORTING
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE CWA. MAIN MCS NOW INTO THE
MIDWEST. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST THIS MORNING WITH A
FEW SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT CONTINUING...SO NOW HAVE POPS FOR MUCH OF
THE MORNING. CONDITIONS DRY OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH
MOVES IN AND IMPLIED SUBSIDENCE BEHIND UPPER FEATURES AFFECT THE
CWA. LEFTOVER 500J/KG SBCAPE NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK
HILLS MAY SUPPORT -TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. SC/SMOKE WILL AFFECT MUCH
OF THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH TOO WARM IF
SC/SMOKE IS THICK ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...QUIET NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND SOME FU.

TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST WITH RETURN FLOW OVER NORTHEAST
WY. THETA-E RIDGE/MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPS...WHICH WARRANTS POPS
DURING DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET/850-700MB THETA-E
ADVECTION SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AS AN UPPER
TROUGH CROSSES CNTRL CANADA...ALONG WITH AN UPPER LOW ACROSS CNTRL
PAC COAST. AS UPPER WAVES CROSS THE PLAINS...STORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA WED/THU. ECM/GFS NOW IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW PHASING BACK IN VIA THE NRN
ROCKIES...WHICH BRINGS STRONGER UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CNTRL
CONUS. THE RESULT IS A DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL STILL BE OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR ISOLATED
STORMS...BUT WILL BE PRIMARILY LIMITED TO FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW TO NEAR AVERAGE WED/THU...THEN AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS IN...TEMPS WILL RISE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 1051 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
FOR NORTHEAST WY INTO THE BLACK HILLS AREA. SOME MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE
FROM SMOKE. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE REGION LATER
TODAY...WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...POJORLIE




000
FXUS65 KCYS 061200
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
600 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 554 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

MADE A QUICK UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THEN
EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

RIGHT REAR OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. ALSO SEEING SOME POCKETS OF FOG AND
DRIZZLE DUE TO A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER AND UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL
FLOW ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL GENERALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID MORNING AS
THE MAIN DYNAMICS MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. FOG AND DRIZZLE
POTENTIAL WILL ALSO WANE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CLOUD COVER
AND COOL BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT A MINIMUM EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY. TO THE
WEST A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER
CARBON COUNTY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY BUT SMALL HAIL
AND HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOSTLY DIE OFF THIS EVENING BUT A
FEW MAY LINGER ACROSS THE WEST AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHERN WYOMING. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN NEARLY CONTINUOUS STREAM OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVES THROUGH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HOLD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
DOWN...MAKING FOR RELATIVELY COOL HIGHS AS COMPARED TO NORMAL FOR
EARLY JULY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

ACTIVE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ELEVATED THROUGH THURSDAY. AS WE HEAD
INTO THE WEEKEND...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A DRY PATTERN
FOR SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS
THEY RETROGRADE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES...PUSHING THE ACTIVE PORTION OF THE MID/UPPER FLOW
TO OUR NORTH. SO...WE KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING ON THURSDAY THEN
TAPER DOWN TO VERY LOW POPS BY SATURDAY. BY THE WEEKEND...WE WILL
BE BACK TO PUSHING LOWER 90S IN THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
WITH MID/UPPER 80S IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING EXCEPT 60S TO LOWER 70S IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

WE STILL HAVE SCATTERED RAINS PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE...FOG AND
IFR CEILINGS IN FOR SOME LOCATIONS FROM CHEYENNE EAST INTO THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. WE EXPECT LOW CEILINGS AND PATCHY PRECIPITATION
TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE ANY IMPROVEMENT UP TO MVFR
OR IFR.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS WEEK AS A WET
WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCED SOME FLASH FLOODING INTO MORRILL
COUNTY NEBRASKA SUNDAY EVENING. WHILE THE WATERS HAVE RECEDED...
SOME STANDING WATER MAY REMAIN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
FORTUNATELY ONCE SHOWERS END THIS MORNING DRYER CONDITIONS WILL
BE IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WHILE THE WET WEATHER PATTERN
IS LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEEKEND IS STARTING TO LOOK
PROMISING WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...SML
HYDROLOGY...SML




000
FXUS65 KCYS 061200
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
600 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 554 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

MADE A QUICK UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THEN
EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

RIGHT REAR OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. ALSO SEEING SOME POCKETS OF FOG AND
DRIZZLE DUE TO A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER AND UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL
FLOW ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL GENERALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID MORNING AS
THE MAIN DYNAMICS MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. FOG AND DRIZZLE
POTENTIAL WILL ALSO WANE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CLOUD COVER
AND COOL BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT A MINIMUM EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY. TO THE
WEST A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER
CARBON COUNTY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY BUT SMALL HAIL
AND HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOSTLY DIE OFF THIS EVENING BUT A
FEW MAY LINGER ACROSS THE WEST AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHERN WYOMING. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN NEARLY CONTINUOUS STREAM OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVES THROUGH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HOLD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
DOWN...MAKING FOR RELATIVELY COOL HIGHS AS COMPARED TO NORMAL FOR
EARLY JULY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

ACTIVE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ELEVATED THROUGH THURSDAY. AS WE HEAD
INTO THE WEEKEND...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A DRY PATTERN
FOR SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS
THEY RETROGRADE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES...PUSHING THE ACTIVE PORTION OF THE MID/UPPER FLOW
TO OUR NORTH. SO...WE KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING ON THURSDAY THEN
TAPER DOWN TO VERY LOW POPS BY SATURDAY. BY THE WEEKEND...WE WILL
BE BACK TO PUSHING LOWER 90S IN THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
WITH MID/UPPER 80S IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING EXCEPT 60S TO LOWER 70S IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

WE STILL HAVE SCATTERED RAINS PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE...FOG AND
IFR CEILINGS IN FOR SOME LOCATIONS FROM CHEYENNE EAST INTO THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. WE EXPECT LOW CEILINGS AND PATCHY PRECIPITATION
TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE ANY IMPROVEMENT UP TO MVFR
OR IFR.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS WEEK AS A WET
WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCED SOME FLASH FLOODING INTO MORRILL
COUNTY NEBRASKA SUNDAY EVENING. WHILE THE WATERS HAVE RECEDED...
SOME STANDING WATER MAY REMAIN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
FORTUNATELY ONCE SHOWERS END THIS MORNING DRYER CONDITIONS WILL
BE IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WHILE THE WET WEATHER PATTERN
IS LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEEKEND IS STARTING TO LOOK
PROMISING WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...SML
HYDROLOGY...SML




000
FXUS65 KCYS 061200
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
600 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 554 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

MADE A QUICK UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THEN
EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

RIGHT REAR OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. ALSO SEEING SOME POCKETS OF FOG AND
DRIZZLE DUE TO A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER AND UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL
FLOW ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL GENERALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID MORNING AS
THE MAIN DYNAMICS MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. FOG AND DRIZZLE
POTENTIAL WILL ALSO WANE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CLOUD COVER
AND COOL BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT A MINIMUM EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY. TO THE
WEST A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER
CARBON COUNTY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY BUT SMALL HAIL
AND HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOSTLY DIE OFF THIS EVENING BUT A
FEW MAY LINGER ACROSS THE WEST AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHERN WYOMING. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN NEARLY CONTINUOUS STREAM OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVES THROUGH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HOLD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
DOWN...MAKING FOR RELATIVELY COOL HIGHS AS COMPARED TO NORMAL FOR
EARLY JULY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

ACTIVE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ELEVATED THROUGH THURSDAY. AS WE HEAD
INTO THE WEEKEND...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A DRY PATTERN
FOR SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS
THEY RETROGRADE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES...PUSHING THE ACTIVE PORTION OF THE MID/UPPER FLOW
TO OUR NORTH. SO...WE KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING ON THURSDAY THEN
TAPER DOWN TO VERY LOW POPS BY SATURDAY. BY THE WEEKEND...WE WILL
BE BACK TO PUSHING LOWER 90S IN THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
WITH MID/UPPER 80S IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING EXCEPT 60S TO LOWER 70S IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

WE STILL HAVE SCATTERED RAINS PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE...FOG AND
IFR CEILINGS IN FOR SOME LOCATIONS FROM CHEYENNE EAST INTO THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. WE EXPECT LOW CEILINGS AND PATCHY PRECIPITATION
TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE ANY IMPROVEMENT UP TO MVFR
OR IFR.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS WEEK AS A WET
WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCED SOME FLASH FLOODING INTO MORRILL
COUNTY NEBRASKA SUNDAY EVENING. WHILE THE WATERS HAVE RECEDED...
SOME STANDING WATER MAY REMAIN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
FORTUNATELY ONCE SHOWERS END THIS MORNING DRYER CONDITIONS WILL
BE IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WHILE THE WET WEATHER PATTERN
IS LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEEKEND IS STARTING TO LOOK
PROMISING WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...SML
HYDROLOGY...SML



000
FXUS65 KCYS 061200
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
600 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 554 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

MADE A QUICK UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THEN
EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

RIGHT REAR OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. ALSO SEEING SOME POCKETS OF FOG AND
DRIZZLE DUE TO A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER AND UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL
FLOW ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL GENERALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID MORNING AS
THE MAIN DYNAMICS MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. FOG AND DRIZZLE
POTENTIAL WILL ALSO WANE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CLOUD COVER
AND COOL BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT A MINIMUM EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY. TO THE
WEST A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER
CARBON COUNTY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY BUT SMALL HAIL
AND HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOSTLY DIE OFF THIS EVENING BUT A
FEW MAY LINGER ACROSS THE WEST AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHERN WYOMING. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN NEARLY CONTINUOUS STREAM OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVES THROUGH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HOLD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
DOWN...MAKING FOR RELATIVELY COOL HIGHS AS COMPARED TO NORMAL FOR
EARLY JULY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

ACTIVE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ELEVATED THROUGH THURSDAY. AS WE HEAD
INTO THE WEEKEND...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A DRY PATTERN
FOR SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS
THEY RETROGRADE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES...PUSHING THE ACTIVE PORTION OF THE MID/UPPER FLOW
TO OUR NORTH. SO...WE KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING ON THURSDAY THEN
TAPER DOWN TO VERY LOW POPS BY SATURDAY. BY THE WEEKEND...WE WILL
BE BACK TO PUSHING LOWER 90S IN THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
WITH MID/UPPER 80S IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING EXCEPT 60S TO LOWER 70S IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

WE STILL HAVE SCATTERED RAINS PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE...FOG AND
IFR CEILINGS IN FOR SOME LOCATIONS FROM CHEYENNE EAST INTO THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. WE EXPECT LOW CEILINGS AND PATCHY PRECIPITATION
TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE ANY IMPROVEMENT UP TO MVFR
OR IFR.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS WEEK AS A WET
WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCED SOME FLASH FLOODING INTO MORRILL
COUNTY NEBRASKA SUNDAY EVENING. WHILE THE WATERS HAVE RECEDED...
SOME STANDING WATER MAY REMAIN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
FORTUNATELY ONCE SHOWERS END THIS MORNING DRYER CONDITIONS WILL
BE IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WHILE THE WET WEATHER PATTERN
IS LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEEKEND IS STARTING TO LOOK
PROMISING WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...SML
HYDROLOGY...SML



000
FXUS63 KUNR 061123
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
523 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER MT PUSHING COLD FRONT
DEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO MT/WY PUSHING EASTWARD EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 100KT JET STREAK SUPPORTING
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE CWA. MAIN MCS NOW INTO THE
MIDWEST. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST THIS MORNING WITH A
FEW SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT CONTINUING...SO NOW HAVE POPS FOR MUCH OF
THE MORNING. CONDITIONS DRY OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH
MOVES IN AND IMPLIED SUBSIDENCE BEHIND UPPER FEATURES AFFECT THE
CWA. LEFTOVER 500J/KG SBCAPE NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK
HILLS MAY SUPPORT -TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. SC/SMOKE WILL AFFECT MUCH
OF THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH TOO WARM IF
SC/SMOKE IS THICK ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...QUIET NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND SOME FU.

TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST WITH RETURN FLOW OVER NORTHEAST
WY. THETA-E RIDGE/MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPS...WHICH WARRANTS POPS
DURING DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET/850-700MB THETA-E
ADVECTION SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AS AN UPPER
TROUGH CROSSES CNTRL CANADA...ALONG WITH AN UPPER LOW ACROSS CNTRL
PAC COAST. AS UPPER WAVES CROSS THE PLAINS...STORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA WED/THU. ECM/GFS NOW IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW PHASING BACK IN VIA THE NRN
ROCKIES...WHICH BRINGS STRONGER UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CNTRL
CONUS. THE RESULT IS A DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL STILL BE OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR ISOLATED
STORMS...BUT WILL BE PRIMARILY LIMITED TO FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW TO NEAR AVERAGE WED/THU...THEN AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS IN...TEMPS WILL RISE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NE
WY AND WESTERN SD THROUGH MUCH OF THIS MORNING AS LINGERING -SHRA
CROSS THE CWA. SOME MVFR VSBY WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO SMOKE. DRIER
AIR WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTN...WITH CONDS TRENDING VFR ALL PLACES NORTH TO
SOUTH.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13



000
FXUS63 KUNR 061123
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
523 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER MT PUSHING COLD FRONT
DEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO MT/WY PUSHING EASTWARD EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 100KT JET STREAK SUPPORTING
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE CWA. MAIN MCS NOW INTO THE
MIDWEST. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST THIS MORNING WITH A
FEW SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT CONTINUING...SO NOW HAVE POPS FOR MUCH OF
THE MORNING. CONDITIONS DRY OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH
MOVES IN AND IMPLIED SUBSIDENCE BEHIND UPPER FEATURES AFFECT THE
CWA. LEFTOVER 500J/KG SBCAPE NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK
HILLS MAY SUPPORT -TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. SC/SMOKE WILL AFFECT MUCH
OF THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH TOO WARM IF
SC/SMOKE IS THICK ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...QUIET NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND SOME FU.

TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST WITH RETURN FLOW OVER NORTHEAST
WY. THETA-E RIDGE/MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPS...WHICH WARRANTS POPS
DURING DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET/850-700MB THETA-E
ADVECTION SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AS AN UPPER
TROUGH CROSSES CNTRL CANADA...ALONG WITH AN UPPER LOW ACROSS CNTRL
PAC COAST. AS UPPER WAVES CROSS THE PLAINS...STORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA WED/THU. ECM/GFS NOW IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW PHASING BACK IN VIA THE NRN
ROCKIES...WHICH BRINGS STRONGER UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CNTRL
CONUS. THE RESULT IS A DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL STILL BE OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR ISOLATED
STORMS...BUT WILL BE PRIMARILY LIMITED TO FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW TO NEAR AVERAGE WED/THU...THEN AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS IN...TEMPS WILL RISE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NE
WY AND WESTERN SD THROUGH MUCH OF THIS MORNING AS LINGERING -SHRA
CROSS THE CWA. SOME MVFR VSBY WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO SMOKE. DRIER
AIR WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTN...WITH CONDS TRENDING VFR ALL PLACES NORTH TO
SOUTH.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13



000
FXUS63 KUNR 061123
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
523 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER MT PUSHING COLD FRONT
DEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO MT/WY PUSHING EASTWARD EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 100KT JET STREAK SUPPORTING
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE CWA. MAIN MCS NOW INTO THE
MIDWEST. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST THIS MORNING WITH A
FEW SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT CONTINUING...SO NOW HAVE POPS FOR MUCH OF
THE MORNING. CONDITIONS DRY OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH
MOVES IN AND IMPLIED SUBSIDENCE BEHIND UPPER FEATURES AFFECT THE
CWA. LEFTOVER 500J/KG SBCAPE NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK
HILLS MAY SUPPORT -TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. SC/SMOKE WILL AFFECT MUCH
OF THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH TOO WARM IF
SC/SMOKE IS THICK ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...QUIET NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND SOME FU.

TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST WITH RETURN FLOW OVER NORTHEAST
WY. THETA-E RIDGE/MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPS...WHICH WARRANTS POPS
DURING DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET/850-700MB THETA-E
ADVECTION SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AS AN UPPER
TROUGH CROSSES CNTRL CANADA...ALONG WITH AN UPPER LOW ACROSS CNTRL
PAC COAST. AS UPPER WAVES CROSS THE PLAINS...STORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA WED/THU. ECM/GFS NOW IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW PHASING BACK IN VIA THE NRN
ROCKIES...WHICH BRINGS STRONGER UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CNTRL
CONUS. THE RESULT IS A DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL STILL BE OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR ISOLATED
STORMS...BUT WILL BE PRIMARILY LIMITED TO FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW TO NEAR AVERAGE WED/THU...THEN AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS IN...TEMPS WILL RISE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NE
WY AND WESTERN SD THROUGH MUCH OF THIS MORNING AS LINGERING -SHRA
CROSS THE CWA. SOME MVFR VSBY WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO SMOKE. DRIER
AIR WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTN...WITH CONDS TRENDING VFR ALL PLACES NORTH TO
SOUTH.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13



000
FXUS63 KUNR 061123
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
523 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER MT PUSHING COLD FRONT
DEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO MT/WY PUSHING EASTWARD EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 100KT JET STREAK SUPPORTING
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE CWA. MAIN MCS NOW INTO THE
MIDWEST. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST THIS MORNING WITH A
FEW SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT CONTINUING...SO NOW HAVE POPS FOR MUCH OF
THE MORNING. CONDITIONS DRY OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH
MOVES IN AND IMPLIED SUBSIDENCE BEHIND UPPER FEATURES AFFECT THE
CWA. LEFTOVER 500J/KG SBCAPE NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK
HILLS MAY SUPPORT -TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. SC/SMOKE WILL AFFECT MUCH
OF THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH TOO WARM IF
SC/SMOKE IS THICK ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...QUIET NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND SOME FU.

TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST WITH RETURN FLOW OVER NORTHEAST
WY. THETA-E RIDGE/MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPS...WHICH WARRANTS POPS
DURING DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET/850-700MB THETA-E
ADVECTION SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AS AN UPPER
TROUGH CROSSES CNTRL CANADA...ALONG WITH AN UPPER LOW ACROSS CNTRL
PAC COAST. AS UPPER WAVES CROSS THE PLAINS...STORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA WED/THU. ECM/GFS NOW IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW PHASING BACK IN VIA THE NRN
ROCKIES...WHICH BRINGS STRONGER UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CNTRL
CONUS. THE RESULT IS A DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL STILL BE OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR ISOLATED
STORMS...BUT WILL BE PRIMARILY LIMITED TO FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW TO NEAR AVERAGE WED/THU...THEN AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS IN...TEMPS WILL RISE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NE
WY AND WESTERN SD THROUGH MUCH OF THIS MORNING AS LINGERING -SHRA
CROSS THE CWA. SOME MVFR VSBY WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO SMOKE. DRIER
AIR WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTN...WITH CONDS TRENDING VFR ALL PLACES NORTH TO
SOUTH.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13



000
FXUS63 KUNR 061123
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
523 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER MT PUSHING COLD FRONT
DEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO MT/WY PUSHING EASTWARD EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 100KT JET STREAK SUPPORTING
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE CWA. MAIN MCS NOW INTO THE
MIDWEST. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST THIS MORNING WITH A
FEW SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT CONTINUING...SO NOW HAVE POPS FOR MUCH OF
THE MORNING. CONDITIONS DRY OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH
MOVES IN AND IMPLIED SUBSIDENCE BEHIND UPPER FEATURES AFFECT THE
CWA. LEFTOVER 500J/KG SBCAPE NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK
HILLS MAY SUPPORT -TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. SC/SMOKE WILL AFFECT MUCH
OF THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH TOO WARM IF
SC/SMOKE IS THICK ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...QUIET NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND SOME FU.

TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST WITH RETURN FLOW OVER NORTHEAST
WY. THETA-E RIDGE/MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPS...WHICH WARRANTS POPS
DURING DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET/850-700MB THETA-E
ADVECTION SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AS AN UPPER
TROUGH CROSSES CNTRL CANADA...ALONG WITH AN UPPER LOW ACROSS CNTRL
PAC COAST. AS UPPER WAVES CROSS THE PLAINS...STORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA WED/THU. ECM/GFS NOW IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW PHASING BACK IN VIA THE NRN
ROCKIES...WHICH BRINGS STRONGER UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CNTRL
CONUS. THE RESULT IS A DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL STILL BE OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR ISOLATED
STORMS...BUT WILL BE PRIMARILY LIMITED TO FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW TO NEAR AVERAGE WED/THU...THEN AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS IN...TEMPS WILL RISE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NE
WY AND WESTERN SD THROUGH MUCH OF THIS MORNING AS LINGERING -SHRA
CROSS THE CWA. SOME MVFR VSBY WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO SMOKE. DRIER
AIR WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTN...WITH CONDS TRENDING VFR ALL PLACES NORTH TO
SOUTH.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13



000
FXUS65 KRIW 061001
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
401 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES ACROSS THE COWBOY STATE. IT FEELS A
LOT MORE LIKE APRIL THAN JULY THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD 50S
ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH CLOUDS. AREAS OF RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...MAINLY OF THE LIGHT TO MODERATE VARIETY BUT WITH
SOME POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN. AND YES...THERE COULD BE SOME OF THE
WHITE STUFF IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT REMAINING ABOVE PASS
LEVEL AND PROBABLY ABOVE 11000 FEET. THE RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. AFTER THAT...THERE SHOULD BE A
DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AS SOME DRIER AIR WORKS ITS
WAY IN FROM THE NORTH COURTESY OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL
DROP IN FROM MONTANA. THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING
IN LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATERS THROUGH THE DAY FROM THE NORTH TO THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT THE THE SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME MORE SPARSE THAT
WAY AS WELL EAST OF THE DIVIDE.AS FOR THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...THE BEST CHANCE WOULD BE WEST OF THE DIVIDE WHERE
THE BEST INSTABILITY IS STILL FOUND. WE LEFT IT IN EVERYWHERE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT SEE ONCE SINCE
INSTABILITY IS LACKING WITH THE CLOUD COVER. THE NEXT QUESTION IS
TEMPERATURES. IF THIS WAS JANUARY...WE COULD BE TALKING ABOUT
FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY. BUT THIS IS JULY...SO THAT WILL
NOT HAPPEN. A LOT DEPENDS ON IF THERE IS ANY CLEARING. THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WOULD BE IN THE BIG HORN BASIN WHERE THE CLEARING WILL
BE EARLIER. FOR NOW...WE LEFT CONTINUITY ALONE SINCE IT SEEMED LIKE
A REASONABLE COMPROMISE. SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE WEST TONIGHT
WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE EAST.

BY TUESDAY...IT LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE ONCE AGAIN AS A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH AND A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL AGAIN INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...THESE LOOK LIKE MORE
OF THE GARDEN VARIETY OF THUNDERSTORMS AS MODELS HAVE AS INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE.
WITH MORE SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THERE
SHOULD TAPER OFF AGAIN AS WE HEAD INTO THE NIGHT HOURS BUT A FEW
WILL LINGER EVEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY IT LOOKS LIKE MORE OF THE SAME WITH
EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA WITH
A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. THERE A BETTER CHANCE FOR A FEW
STRONGER STORMS ON THIS DAY AS THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH. IN ADDITION...NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL BE SEE
SOME BETTER UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE COURTESY OF THE RIGHT REAR QUAD
OF A JET STREAK. AS A RESULT...THE BEST CHANCE OF A STRONGER STORM
WOULD BE IN THE BIG HORN BASIN AND JOHNSON COUNTY. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM AS WELL AS THE AIR MASS BECOMES MORE MODIFIED.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING THE UPPER LOW INLAND
INTO CALIFORNIA THURSDAY WITH A SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
WY. UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENT FLOW WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. STORM COVERAGE LOOKS BETTER OVER THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST THURS AFTERNOON. THURS EVENING SHOULD SEE COVERAGE
INCREASE EAST OF THE DIVIDE. THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP THURSDAY NIGHT
AS IT MOVES INTO NEVADA. THEN THE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO IDAHO FRIDAY
AND MOVES THROUGH WESTERN WY FRI NIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
FRIDAY WITH BEST STORM CHANCES IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST PART OF
WY WITH MAINLY ISOLATED COVERAGE ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY LOOKS DRIER
FOR MOST PLACES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THE NORTHWEST.
ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND FAR NORTHERN WY SATURDAY.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
PUSHES NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. 700MB TEMPS WARM UP AND SUMMERTIME HEAT RETURNS TO THE
AREA BOTH DAYS. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST AND MAINLY
OVER OR NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES

WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT FOG ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL MORNING. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO
LOW VFR AND VSBY IMPROVING TO P6SM IN MOST LOCATIONS BETWEEN 17Z AND
20Z. AREAS OF RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN
COVERAGE QUICKLY THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH THE
EVENING...MAINLY AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE DIVIDE. LATE
TONIGHT...SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN. MOUNTAINS
WILL BE OBSCURED MUCH OF THE TIME.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES

AREAS WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG ARE EXPECTED...BUT
NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS WHAT OCCURS EAST OF THE DIVIDE. THERE WILL BE
ISOLATED SHRA ACTIVITY THIS MORNING...BUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BREAK OUT AND WILL
HAVE VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
CONVECTION COULD LINGER WELL INTO THE NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

UNSEASONABLY COOL TODAY WITH A CONTINUING CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DRIER
AIR MAY WORK INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE ABOVE 10500 FEET BUT ACCUMULATION
WILL BE SMALL GIVEN RECENT WARM WEATHER AND GROUND TEMPERATURES.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS WITH WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. &&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS



000
FXUS65 KRIW 061001
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
401 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES ACROSS THE COWBOY STATE. IT FEELS A
LOT MORE LIKE APRIL THAN JULY THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD 50S
ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH CLOUDS. AREAS OF RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...MAINLY OF THE LIGHT TO MODERATE VARIETY BUT WITH
SOME POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN. AND YES...THERE COULD BE SOME OF THE
WHITE STUFF IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT REMAINING ABOVE PASS
LEVEL AND PROBABLY ABOVE 11000 FEET. THE RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. AFTER THAT...THERE SHOULD BE A
DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AS SOME DRIER AIR WORKS ITS
WAY IN FROM THE NORTH COURTESY OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL
DROP IN FROM MONTANA. THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING
IN LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATERS THROUGH THE DAY FROM THE NORTH TO THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT THE THE SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME MORE SPARSE THAT
WAY AS WELL EAST OF THE DIVIDE.AS FOR THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...THE BEST CHANCE WOULD BE WEST OF THE DIVIDE WHERE
THE BEST INSTABILITY IS STILL FOUND. WE LEFT IT IN EVERYWHERE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT SEE ONCE SINCE
INSTABILITY IS LACKING WITH THE CLOUD COVER. THE NEXT QUESTION IS
TEMPERATURES. IF THIS WAS JANUARY...WE COULD BE TALKING ABOUT
FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY. BUT THIS IS JULY...SO THAT WILL
NOT HAPPEN. A LOT DEPENDS ON IF THERE IS ANY CLEARING. THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WOULD BE IN THE BIG HORN BASIN WHERE THE CLEARING WILL
BE EARLIER. FOR NOW...WE LEFT CONTINUITY ALONE SINCE IT SEEMED LIKE
A REASONABLE COMPROMISE. SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE WEST TONIGHT
WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE EAST.

BY TUESDAY...IT LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE ONCE AGAIN AS A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH AND A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL AGAIN INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...THESE LOOK LIKE MORE
OF THE GARDEN VARIETY OF THUNDERSTORMS AS MODELS HAVE AS INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE.
WITH MORE SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THERE
SHOULD TAPER OFF AGAIN AS WE HEAD INTO THE NIGHT HOURS BUT A FEW
WILL LINGER EVEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY IT LOOKS LIKE MORE OF THE SAME WITH
EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA WITH
A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. THERE A BETTER CHANCE FOR A FEW
STRONGER STORMS ON THIS DAY AS THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH. IN ADDITION...NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL BE SEE
SOME BETTER UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE COURTESY OF THE RIGHT REAR QUAD
OF A JET STREAK. AS A RESULT...THE BEST CHANCE OF A STRONGER STORM
WOULD BE IN THE BIG HORN BASIN AND JOHNSON COUNTY. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM AS WELL AS THE AIR MASS BECOMES MORE MODIFIED.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING THE UPPER LOW INLAND
INTO CALIFORNIA THURSDAY WITH A SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
WY. UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENT FLOW WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. STORM COVERAGE LOOKS BETTER OVER THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST THURS AFTERNOON. THURS EVENING SHOULD SEE COVERAGE
INCREASE EAST OF THE DIVIDE. THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP THURSDAY NIGHT
AS IT MOVES INTO NEVADA. THEN THE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO IDAHO FRIDAY
AND MOVES THROUGH WESTERN WY FRI NIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
FRIDAY WITH BEST STORM CHANCES IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST PART OF
WY WITH MAINLY ISOLATED COVERAGE ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY LOOKS DRIER
FOR MOST PLACES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THE NORTHWEST.
ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND FAR NORTHERN WY SATURDAY.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
PUSHES NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. 700MB TEMPS WARM UP AND SUMMERTIME HEAT RETURNS TO THE
AREA BOTH DAYS. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST AND MAINLY
OVER OR NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES

WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT FOG ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL MORNING. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO
LOW VFR AND VSBY IMPROVING TO P6SM IN MOST LOCATIONS BETWEEN 17Z AND
20Z. AREAS OF RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN
COVERAGE QUICKLY THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH THE
EVENING...MAINLY AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE DIVIDE. LATE
TONIGHT...SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN. MOUNTAINS
WILL BE OBSCURED MUCH OF THE TIME.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES

AREAS WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG ARE EXPECTED...BUT
NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS WHAT OCCURS EAST OF THE DIVIDE. THERE WILL BE
ISOLATED SHRA ACTIVITY THIS MORNING...BUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BREAK OUT AND WILL
HAVE VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
CONVECTION COULD LINGER WELL INTO THE NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

UNSEASONABLY COOL TODAY WITH A CONTINUING CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DRIER
AIR MAY WORK INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE ABOVE 10500 FEET BUT ACCUMULATION
WILL BE SMALL GIVEN RECENT WARM WEATHER AND GROUND TEMPERATURES.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS WITH WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. &&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS




000
FXUS65 KRIW 061001
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
401 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES ACROSS THE COWBOY STATE. IT FEELS A
LOT MORE LIKE APRIL THAN JULY THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD 50S
ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH CLOUDS. AREAS OF RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...MAINLY OF THE LIGHT TO MODERATE VARIETY BUT WITH
SOME POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN. AND YES...THERE COULD BE SOME OF THE
WHITE STUFF IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT REMAINING ABOVE PASS
LEVEL AND PROBABLY ABOVE 11000 FEET. THE RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. AFTER THAT...THERE SHOULD BE A
DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AS SOME DRIER AIR WORKS ITS
WAY IN FROM THE NORTH COURTESY OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL
DROP IN FROM MONTANA. THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING
IN LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATERS THROUGH THE DAY FROM THE NORTH TO THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT THE THE SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME MORE SPARSE THAT
WAY AS WELL EAST OF THE DIVIDE.AS FOR THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...THE BEST CHANCE WOULD BE WEST OF THE DIVIDE WHERE
THE BEST INSTABILITY IS STILL FOUND. WE LEFT IT IN EVERYWHERE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT SEE ONCE SINCE
INSTABILITY IS LACKING WITH THE CLOUD COVER. THE NEXT QUESTION IS
TEMPERATURES. IF THIS WAS JANUARY...WE COULD BE TALKING ABOUT
FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY. BUT THIS IS JULY...SO THAT WILL
NOT HAPPEN. A LOT DEPENDS ON IF THERE IS ANY CLEARING. THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WOULD BE IN THE BIG HORN BASIN WHERE THE CLEARING WILL
BE EARLIER. FOR NOW...WE LEFT CONTINUITY ALONE SINCE IT SEEMED LIKE
A REASONABLE COMPROMISE. SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE WEST TONIGHT
WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE EAST.

BY TUESDAY...IT LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE ONCE AGAIN AS A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH AND A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL AGAIN INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...THESE LOOK LIKE MORE
OF THE GARDEN VARIETY OF THUNDERSTORMS AS MODELS HAVE AS INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE.
WITH MORE SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THERE
SHOULD TAPER OFF AGAIN AS WE HEAD INTO THE NIGHT HOURS BUT A FEW
WILL LINGER EVEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY IT LOOKS LIKE MORE OF THE SAME WITH
EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA WITH
A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. THERE A BETTER CHANCE FOR A FEW
STRONGER STORMS ON THIS DAY AS THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH. IN ADDITION...NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL BE SEE
SOME BETTER UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE COURTESY OF THE RIGHT REAR QUAD
OF A JET STREAK. AS A RESULT...THE BEST CHANCE OF A STRONGER STORM
WOULD BE IN THE BIG HORN BASIN AND JOHNSON COUNTY. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM AS WELL AS THE AIR MASS BECOMES MORE MODIFIED.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING THE UPPER LOW INLAND
INTO CALIFORNIA THURSDAY WITH A SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
WY. UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENT FLOW WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. STORM COVERAGE LOOKS BETTER OVER THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST THURS AFTERNOON. THURS EVENING SHOULD SEE COVERAGE
INCREASE EAST OF THE DIVIDE. THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP THURSDAY NIGHT
AS IT MOVES INTO NEVADA. THEN THE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO IDAHO FRIDAY
AND MOVES THROUGH WESTERN WY FRI NIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
FRIDAY WITH BEST STORM CHANCES IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST PART OF
WY WITH MAINLY ISOLATED COVERAGE ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY LOOKS DRIER
FOR MOST PLACES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THE NORTHWEST.
ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND FAR NORTHERN WY SATURDAY.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
PUSHES NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. 700MB TEMPS WARM UP AND SUMMERTIME HEAT RETURNS TO THE
AREA BOTH DAYS. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST AND MAINLY
OVER OR NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES

WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT FOG ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL MORNING. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO
LOW VFR AND VSBY IMPROVING TO P6SM IN MOST LOCATIONS BETWEEN 17Z AND
20Z. AREAS OF RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN
COVERAGE QUICKLY THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH THE
EVENING...MAINLY AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE DIVIDE. LATE
TONIGHT...SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN. MOUNTAINS
WILL BE OBSCURED MUCH OF THE TIME.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES

AREAS WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG ARE EXPECTED...BUT
NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS WHAT OCCURS EAST OF THE DIVIDE. THERE WILL BE
ISOLATED SHRA ACTIVITY THIS MORNING...BUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BREAK OUT AND WILL
HAVE VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
CONVECTION COULD LINGER WELL INTO THE NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

UNSEASONABLY COOL TODAY WITH A CONTINUING CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DRIER
AIR MAY WORK INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE ABOVE 10500 FEET BUT ACCUMULATION
WILL BE SMALL GIVEN RECENT WARM WEATHER AND GROUND TEMPERATURES.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS WITH WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. &&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS




000
FXUS65 KCYS 060957
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
357 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

RIGHT REAR OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. ALSO SEEING SOME POCKETS OF FOG AND
DRIZZLE DUE TO A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER AND UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL
FLOW ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL GENERALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID MORNING AS
THE MAIN DYNAMICS MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. FOG AND DRIZZLE
POTENTIAL WILL ALSO WANE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CLOUD COVER
AND COOL BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT A MINIMUM EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY. TO THE
WEST A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER
CARBON COUNTY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY BUT SMALL HAIL
AND HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOSTLY DIE OFF THIS EVENING BUT A
FEW MAY LINGER ACROSS THE WEST AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHERN WYOMING. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN NEARLY CONTINUOUS STREAM OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVES THROUGH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HOLD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
DOWN...MAKING FOR RELATIVELY COOL HIGHS AS COMPARED TO NORMAL FOR
EARLY JULY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

ACTIVE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ELEVATED THROUGH THURSDAY. AS WE HEAD
INTO THE WEEKEND...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A DRY PATTERN
FOR SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS
THEY RETROGRADE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES...PUSHING THE ACTIVE PORTION OF THE MID/UPPER FLOW
TO OUR NORTH. SO...WE KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING ON THURSDAY THEN
TAPER DOWN TO VERY LOW POPS BY SATURDAY. BY THE WEEKEND...WE WILL
BE BACK TO PUSHING LOWER 90S IN THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
WITH MID/UPPER 80S IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING EXCEPT 60S TO LOWER 70S IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

WE STILL HAVE SCATTERED RAINS PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE...FOG AND
IFR CEILINGS IN FOR SOME LOCATIONS FROM CHEYENNE EAST INTO THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. WE EXPECT LOW CEILINGS AND PATCHY PRECIPITATION
TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE ANY IMPROVEMENT UP TO MVFR
OR IFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS WEEK AS A WET
WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCED SOME FLASH FLOODING INTO MORRILL
COUNTY NEBRASKA SUNDAY EVENING. WHILE THE WATERS HAVE RECEDED...
SOME STANDING WATER MAY REMAIN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
FORTUNATELY ONCE SHOWERS END THIS MORNING DRYER CONDITIONS WILL
BE IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WHILE THE WET WEATHER PATTERN
IS LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEEKEND IS STARTING TO LOOK
PROMISING WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...SML
HYDROLOGY...SML




000
FXUS65 KCYS 060957
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
357 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

RIGHT REAR OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. ALSO SEEING SOME POCKETS OF FOG AND
DRIZZLE DUE TO A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER AND UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL
FLOW ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL GENERALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID MORNING AS
THE MAIN DYNAMICS MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. FOG AND DRIZZLE
POTENTIAL WILL ALSO WANE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CLOUD COVER
AND COOL BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT A MINIMUM EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY. TO THE
WEST A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER
CARBON COUNTY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY BUT SMALL HAIL
AND HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOSTLY DIE OFF THIS EVENING BUT A
FEW MAY LINGER ACROSS THE WEST AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHERN WYOMING. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN NEARLY CONTINUOUS STREAM OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVES THROUGH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HOLD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
DOWN...MAKING FOR RELATIVELY COOL HIGHS AS COMPARED TO NORMAL FOR
EARLY JULY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

ACTIVE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ELEVATED THROUGH THURSDAY. AS WE HEAD
INTO THE WEEKEND...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A DRY PATTERN
FOR SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS
THEY RETROGRADE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES...PUSHING THE ACTIVE PORTION OF THE MID/UPPER FLOW
TO OUR NORTH. SO...WE KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING ON THURSDAY THEN
TAPER DOWN TO VERY LOW POPS BY SATURDAY. BY THE WEEKEND...WE WILL
BE BACK TO PUSHING LOWER 90S IN THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
WITH MID/UPPER 80S IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING EXCEPT 60S TO LOWER 70S IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

WE STILL HAVE SCATTERED RAINS PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE...FOG AND
IFR CEILINGS IN FOR SOME LOCATIONS FROM CHEYENNE EAST INTO THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. WE EXPECT LOW CEILINGS AND PATCHY PRECIPITATION
TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE ANY IMPROVEMENT UP TO MVFR
OR IFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS WEEK AS A WET
WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCED SOME FLASH FLOODING INTO MORRILL
COUNTY NEBRASKA SUNDAY EVENING. WHILE THE WATERS HAVE RECEDED...
SOME STANDING WATER MAY REMAIN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
FORTUNATELY ONCE SHOWERS END THIS MORNING DRYER CONDITIONS WILL
BE IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WHILE THE WET WEATHER PATTERN
IS LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEEKEND IS STARTING TO LOOK
PROMISING WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...SML
HYDROLOGY...SML




000
FXUS65 KCYS 060957
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
357 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

RIGHT REAR OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. ALSO SEEING SOME POCKETS OF FOG AND
DRIZZLE DUE TO A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER AND UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL
FLOW ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL GENERALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID MORNING AS
THE MAIN DYNAMICS MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. FOG AND DRIZZLE
POTENTIAL WILL ALSO WANE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CLOUD COVER
AND COOL BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT A MINIMUM EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY. TO THE
WEST A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER
CARBON COUNTY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY BUT SMALL HAIL
AND HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOSTLY DIE OFF THIS EVENING BUT A
FEW MAY LINGER ACROSS THE WEST AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHERN WYOMING. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN NEARLY CONTINUOUS STREAM OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVES THROUGH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HOLD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
DOWN...MAKING FOR RELATIVELY COOL HIGHS AS COMPARED TO NORMAL FOR
EARLY JULY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

ACTIVE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ELEVATED THROUGH THURSDAY. AS WE HEAD
INTO THE WEEKEND...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A DRY PATTERN
FOR SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS
THEY RETROGRADE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES...PUSHING THE ACTIVE PORTION OF THE MID/UPPER FLOW
TO OUR NORTH. SO...WE KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING ON THURSDAY THEN
TAPER DOWN TO VERY LOW POPS BY SATURDAY. BY THE WEEKEND...WE WILL
BE BACK TO PUSHING LOWER 90S IN THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
WITH MID/UPPER 80S IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING EXCEPT 60S TO LOWER 70S IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

WE STILL HAVE SCATTERED RAINS PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE...FOG AND
IFR CEILINGS IN FOR SOME LOCATIONS FROM CHEYENNE EAST INTO THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. WE EXPECT LOW CEILINGS AND PATCHY PRECIPITATION
TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE ANY IMPROVEMENT UP TO MVFR
OR IFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS WEEK AS A WET
WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCED SOME FLASH FLOODING INTO MORRILL
COUNTY NEBRASKA SUNDAY EVENING. WHILE THE WATERS HAVE RECEDED...
SOME STANDING WATER MAY REMAIN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
FORTUNATELY ONCE SHOWERS END THIS MORNING DRYER CONDITIONS WILL
BE IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WHILE THE WET WEATHER PATTERN
IS LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEEKEND IS STARTING TO LOOK
PROMISING WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...SML
HYDROLOGY...SML




000
FXUS65 KCYS 060957
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
357 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

RIGHT REAR OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. ALSO SEEING SOME POCKETS OF FOG AND
DRIZZLE DUE TO A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER AND UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL
FLOW ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL GENERALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID MORNING AS
THE MAIN DYNAMICS MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. FOG AND DRIZZLE
POTENTIAL WILL ALSO WANE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CLOUD COVER
AND COOL BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT A MINIMUM EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY. TO THE
WEST A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER
CARBON COUNTY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY BUT SMALL HAIL
AND HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOSTLY DIE OFF THIS EVENING BUT A
FEW MAY LINGER ACROSS THE WEST AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHERN WYOMING. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN NEARLY CONTINUOUS STREAM OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVES THROUGH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HOLD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
DOWN...MAKING FOR RELATIVELY COOL HIGHS AS COMPARED TO NORMAL FOR
EARLY JULY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

ACTIVE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ELEVATED THROUGH THURSDAY. AS WE HEAD
INTO THE WEEKEND...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A DRY PATTERN
FOR SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS
THEY RETROGRADE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES...PUSHING THE ACTIVE PORTION OF THE MID/UPPER FLOW
TO OUR NORTH. SO...WE KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING ON THURSDAY THEN
TAPER DOWN TO VERY LOW POPS BY SATURDAY. BY THE WEEKEND...WE WILL
BE BACK TO PUSHING LOWER 90S IN THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
WITH MID/UPPER 80S IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING EXCEPT 60S TO LOWER 70S IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

WE STILL HAVE SCATTERED RAINS PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE...FOG AND
IFR CEILINGS IN FOR SOME LOCATIONS FROM CHEYENNE EAST INTO THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. WE EXPECT LOW CEILINGS AND PATCHY PRECIPITATION
TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE ANY IMPROVEMENT UP TO MVFR
OR IFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS WEEK AS A WET
WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCED SOME FLASH FLOODING INTO MORRILL
COUNTY NEBRASKA SUNDAY EVENING. WHILE THE WATERS HAVE RECEDED...
SOME STANDING WATER MAY REMAIN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
FORTUNATELY ONCE SHOWERS END THIS MORNING DRYER CONDITIONS WILL
BE IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WHILE THE WET WEATHER PATTERN
IS LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEEKEND IS STARTING TO LOOK
PROMISING WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...SML
HYDROLOGY...SML




000
FXUS63 KUNR 060843
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
243 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER MT PUSHING COLD FRONT
DEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO MT/WY PUSHING EASTWARD EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 100KT JET STREAK SUPPORTING
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE CWA. MAIN MCS NOW INTO THE
MIDWEST. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST THIS MORNING WITH A
FEW SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT CONTINUING...SO NOW HAVE POPS FOR MUCH OF
THE MORNING. CONDITIONS DRY OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH
MOVES IN AND IMPLIED SUBSIDENCE BEHIND UPPER FEATURES AFFECT THE
CWA. LEFTOVER 500J/KG SBCAPE NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK
HILLS MAY SUPPORT -TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. SC/SMOKE WILL AFFECT MUCH
OF THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH TOO WARM IF
SC/SMOKE IS THICK ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...QUIET NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND SOME FU.

TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST WITH RETURN FLOW OVER NORTHEAST
WY. THETA-E RIDGE/MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPS...WHICH WARRANTS POPS
DURING DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET/850-700MB THETA-E
ADVECTION SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AS AN UPPER
TROUGH CROSSES CNTRL CANADA...ALONG WITH AN UPPER LOW ACROSS CNTRL
PAC COAST. AS UPPER WAVES CROSS THE PLAINS...STORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA WED/THU. ECM/GFS NOW IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW PHASING BACK IN VIA THE NRN
ROCKIES...WHICH BRINGS STRONGER UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CNTRL
CONUS. THE RESULT IS A DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL STILL BE OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR ISOLATED
STORMS...BUT WILL BE PRIMARILY LIMITED TO FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW TO NEAR AVERAGE WED/THU...THEN AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS IN...TEMPS WILL RISE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NE WY AND
WESTERN SD THROUGH MUCH OF THIS MORNING AS LINGERING -SHRA CROSS
THE CWA. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE REGION LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTN...WITH CONDS TRENDING VFR ALL PLACES
NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13



000
FXUS63 KUNR 060843
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
243 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER MT PUSHING COLD FRONT
DEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO MT/WY PUSHING EASTWARD EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 100KT JET STREAK SUPPORTING
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE CWA. MAIN MCS NOW INTO THE
MIDWEST. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST THIS MORNING WITH A
FEW SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT CONTINUING...SO NOW HAVE POPS FOR MUCH OF
THE MORNING. CONDITIONS DRY OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH
MOVES IN AND IMPLIED SUBSIDENCE BEHIND UPPER FEATURES AFFECT THE
CWA. LEFTOVER 500J/KG SBCAPE NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK
HILLS MAY SUPPORT -TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. SC/SMOKE WILL AFFECT MUCH
OF THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH TOO WARM IF
SC/SMOKE IS THICK ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...QUIET NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND SOME FU.

TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST WITH RETURN FLOW OVER NORTHEAST
WY. THETA-E RIDGE/MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPS...WHICH WARRANTS POPS
DURING DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET/850-700MB THETA-E
ADVECTION SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AS AN UPPER
TROUGH CROSSES CNTRL CANADA...ALONG WITH AN UPPER LOW ACROSS CNTRL
PAC COAST. AS UPPER WAVES CROSS THE PLAINS...STORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA WED/THU. ECM/GFS NOW IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW PHASING BACK IN VIA THE NRN
ROCKIES...WHICH BRINGS STRONGER UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CNTRL
CONUS. THE RESULT IS A DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL STILL BE OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR ISOLATED
STORMS...BUT WILL BE PRIMARILY LIMITED TO FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW TO NEAR AVERAGE WED/THU...THEN AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS IN...TEMPS WILL RISE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NE WY AND
WESTERN SD THROUGH MUCH OF THIS MORNING AS LINGERING -SHRA CROSS
THE CWA. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE REGION LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTN...WITH CONDS TRENDING VFR ALL PLACES
NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13



000
FXUS63 KUNR 060843
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
243 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER MT PUSHING COLD FRONT
DEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO MT/WY PUSHING EASTWARD EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 100KT JET STREAK SUPPORTING
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE CWA. MAIN MCS NOW INTO THE
MIDWEST. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST THIS MORNING WITH A
FEW SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT CONTINUING...SO NOW HAVE POPS FOR MUCH OF
THE MORNING. CONDITIONS DRY OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH
MOVES IN AND IMPLIED SUBSIDENCE BEHIND UPPER FEATURES AFFECT THE
CWA. LEFTOVER 500J/KG SBCAPE NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK
HILLS MAY SUPPORT -TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. SC/SMOKE WILL AFFECT MUCH
OF THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH TOO WARM IF
SC/SMOKE IS THICK ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...QUIET NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND SOME FU.

TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST WITH RETURN FLOW OVER NORTHEAST
WY. THETA-E RIDGE/MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPS...WHICH WARRANTS POPS
DURING DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET/850-700MB THETA-E
ADVECTION SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AS AN UPPER
TROUGH CROSSES CNTRL CANADA...ALONG WITH AN UPPER LOW ACROSS CNTRL
PAC COAST. AS UPPER WAVES CROSS THE PLAINS...STORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA WED/THU. ECM/GFS NOW IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW PHASING BACK IN VIA THE NRN
ROCKIES...WHICH BRINGS STRONGER UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CNTRL
CONUS. THE RESULT IS A DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL STILL BE OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR ISOLATED
STORMS...BUT WILL BE PRIMARILY LIMITED TO FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW TO NEAR AVERAGE WED/THU...THEN AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS IN...TEMPS WILL RISE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NE WY AND
WESTERN SD THROUGH MUCH OF THIS MORNING AS LINGERING -SHRA CROSS
THE CWA. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE REGION LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTN...WITH CONDS TRENDING VFR ALL PLACES
NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13



000
FXUS63 KUNR 060843
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
243 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER MT PUSHING COLD FRONT
DEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO MT/WY PUSHING EASTWARD EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 100KT JET STREAK SUPPORTING
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE CWA. MAIN MCS NOW INTO THE
MIDWEST. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST THIS MORNING WITH A
FEW SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT CONTINUING...SO NOW HAVE POPS FOR MUCH OF
THE MORNING. CONDITIONS DRY OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH
MOVES IN AND IMPLIED SUBSIDENCE BEHIND UPPER FEATURES AFFECT THE
CWA. LEFTOVER 500J/KG SBCAPE NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK
HILLS MAY SUPPORT -TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. SC/SMOKE WILL AFFECT MUCH
OF THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH TOO WARM IF
SC/SMOKE IS THICK ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...QUIET NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND SOME FU.

TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST WITH RETURN FLOW OVER NORTHEAST
WY. THETA-E RIDGE/MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPS...WHICH WARRANTS POPS
DURING DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET/850-700MB THETA-E
ADVECTION SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AS AN UPPER
TROUGH CROSSES CNTRL CANADA...ALONG WITH AN UPPER LOW ACROSS CNTRL
PAC COAST. AS UPPER WAVES CROSS THE PLAINS...STORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA WED/THU. ECM/GFS NOW IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW PHASING BACK IN VIA THE NRN
ROCKIES...WHICH BRINGS STRONGER UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CNTRL
CONUS. THE RESULT IS A DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL STILL BE OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR ISOLATED
STORMS...BUT WILL BE PRIMARILY LIMITED TO FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW TO NEAR AVERAGE WED/THU...THEN AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS IN...TEMPS WILL RISE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NE WY AND
WESTERN SD THROUGH MUCH OF THIS MORNING AS LINGERING -SHRA CROSS
THE CWA. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE REGION LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTN...WITH CONDS TRENDING VFR ALL PLACES
NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13



000
FXUS65 KCYS 060529
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1129 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 832 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND STRONGER DEEP
LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. PRECIP
HAS BECOME MOSTLY STRATIFORM OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE...AND
LINGERING CONVECTIVE CELLS OVER CHEYENNE COUNTY HAVE NOT SHOWN
MANY SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING OVER THE LAST HOUR. PER COORDINATION
WITH SPC...WE WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED SEVERE TSTM WATCH 391 AS
ANY REMAINING THREAT SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED. FLOODING RAINS WERE
OUR MAIN PROBLEM THROUGH THE LATE AFTN/EVE WITH A TROPICAL TYPE
AIR MASS IN PLACE...AND TALL/SKINNY CAPES CONTRIBUTING TO RATHER
EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES. 3-6 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN PARTS OF
LARAMIE AND SCOTTS BLUFF COUNTIES...RESULTING IN SEVERAL WASHED
OUT ROADS. FLASH FLOOD STATEMENTS ARE ONGOING ATTM.

NOT MANY CHANGES REQUIRED TO THE INHERITED FCST. WE TRANSITIONED
TO MODERATE STRATIFORM RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER FOR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE THROUGH 06Z...AND INCREASED POPS INTO
THE 90-100 PERCENT RANGE. WE ENDED ALL MENTION OF TSTMS AFTER 06Z
AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LITTLE CAPE. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYO. TRENDED TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES AS
WELL GIVEN THE MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME FOG
LATER ON...BUT THINK WINDS WILL STAY STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
LLVLS MIXED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONVECTION HAS REALLY INCREASED THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN OVER
ALBANY/LARAMIE COUNTIES AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
THIS DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOCATED
OVER WESTERN COLORADO/WYOMING.  THE STORMS OVER LARAMIE COUNTY HAVE
BEEN HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS WITH A FEW LOCATIONS SHOWING RADAR DERIVED
AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES.  PLENTIFUL MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CWA WITH PW VALUES ABOVE 1.25 INCHES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.  IT APPEARS THAT THE RAIN IS BECOMING MORE
STRATIFORM THOUGH OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH
SHOULD REDUCE THE HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.  THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG TO SVR
STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER MAINLY THE FAR PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD INSTABILITY (MLCAPES OF 2000-
2500 J/KG) IN NORTHERN SIOUX AND DAWES COUNTIES WITH BULK SHEAR OF
30 KTS.  THERE IS LESS INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH ALONG INTERSTATE 80.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM FOR ZONES ALONG
THE EASTERN CWA BORDER IN THE PANHANDLE.  SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY LATER TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT
PASSING OVER THE ENTIRE CWA.  WILL KEEP 50-70 PERCENT POPS GOING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT AGAIN THE RAIN SHOULD BE MORE
STRATIFORM IN NATURE.

MUCH COOLER ON MONDAY IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY BEFORE
TAPERING OFF.  INSTABILITY WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE.  CONVECTION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN ON
TUES ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING.  CAPE DOES INCREASE TO
AROUND 1000 J/KG ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE BY THE AFTN BUT DROPS OFF
QUICKLY ACROSS THE PLAINS. GET SOME WARMING ON TUES...HOWEVER TEMPS
WILL STILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UNSETTLED AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM THE 60S AND 70S ON WEDNESDAY BACK INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 90S FROM WEST TO EAST BY FRIDAY. A FEW PIECES
OF ENERGY WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY...AND WITH PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN COMBINING WILL
DECENT LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW...SHOULD SEE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR CONTINUES TO
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SO WILL KEEP MENTION FOR THAT POSSIBILITY IN THE
FORECAST. THURSDAY WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR...HOWEVER INCREASING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL DIMINISH COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS A BIT WITH THE BEST CHANCE EXPECTED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. CHANCES FOR STRONG STORMS WILL BE LESS AS WELL. MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING THE UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA
BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTER SOLUTION VS THE ECMWF ON
FRIDAY...BUT BOTH MODELS SHOW AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
THE MOUNTAINS. THE WETTER GFS CARRIES THE CONVECTION EAST IN THE
EVENING WHILE THE DRIER ECMWF KEEPS THE EASTERN ZONES DRY. WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRIDAY EVENING UNTIL MODELS BECOME
MORE CONSISTENT. FOR SATURDAY...BOTH MODELS BUILD A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE
ECMWF BUILDING THAT RIDGE UP INTO THE ROCKIES AS WELL. THE GFS IS
STARTING TO TREND THAT WAY...BUT STILL SWEEPS A BIT MORE MIDLEVEL
ENERGY ACROSS OUR AREA IN THE EVENING. MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR T-STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL
DIFFERENCES...BUT LEFT REMAINING AREAS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WYOMING TAFS...IFR DEVELOPING THE REST OF THE NIGHT IN FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS WITH MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. BECOMING VFR IN THE MORNING
WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS PRODUCING LOCALIZED MVFR...THEN
IFR DEVELOPING MONDAY EVENING IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS.

NEBRASKA TAFS...WIDESPREAD IFR DEVELOPING THE REST OF THE NIGHT
IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...THEN BECOMING VFR WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS PRODUCING LOCALIZED MVFR...AND VFR MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION.  A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
 MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE 40
PERCENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CLH
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...ZF



000
FXUS65 KCYS 060529
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1129 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 832 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND STRONGER DEEP
LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. PRECIP
HAS BECOME MOSTLY STRATIFORM OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE...AND
LINGERING CONVECTIVE CELLS OVER CHEYENNE COUNTY HAVE NOT SHOWN
MANY SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING OVER THE LAST HOUR. PER COORDINATION
WITH SPC...WE WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED SEVERE TSTM WATCH 391 AS
ANY REMAINING THREAT SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED. FLOODING RAINS WERE
OUR MAIN PROBLEM THROUGH THE LATE AFTN/EVE WITH A TROPICAL TYPE
AIR MASS IN PLACE...AND TALL/SKINNY CAPES CONTRIBUTING TO RATHER
EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES. 3-6 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN PARTS OF
LARAMIE AND SCOTTS BLUFF COUNTIES...RESULTING IN SEVERAL WASHED
OUT ROADS. FLASH FLOOD STATEMENTS ARE ONGOING ATTM.

NOT MANY CHANGES REQUIRED TO THE INHERITED FCST. WE TRANSITIONED
TO MODERATE STRATIFORM RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER FOR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE THROUGH 06Z...AND INCREASED POPS INTO
THE 90-100 PERCENT RANGE. WE ENDED ALL MENTION OF TSTMS AFTER 06Z
AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LITTLE CAPE. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYO. TRENDED TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES AS
WELL GIVEN THE MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME FOG
LATER ON...BUT THINK WINDS WILL STAY STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
LLVLS MIXED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONVECTION HAS REALLY INCREASED THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN OVER
ALBANY/LARAMIE COUNTIES AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
THIS DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOCATED
OVER WESTERN COLORADO/WYOMING.  THE STORMS OVER LARAMIE COUNTY HAVE
BEEN HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS WITH A FEW LOCATIONS SHOWING RADAR DERIVED
AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES.  PLENTIFUL MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CWA WITH PW VALUES ABOVE 1.25 INCHES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.  IT APPEARS THAT THE RAIN IS BECOMING MORE
STRATIFORM THOUGH OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH
SHOULD REDUCE THE HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.  THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG TO SVR
STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER MAINLY THE FAR PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD INSTABILITY (MLCAPES OF 2000-
2500 J/KG) IN NORTHERN SIOUX AND DAWES COUNTIES WITH BULK SHEAR OF
30 KTS.  THERE IS LESS INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH ALONG INTERSTATE 80.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM FOR ZONES ALONG
THE EASTERN CWA BORDER IN THE PANHANDLE.  SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY LATER TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT
PASSING OVER THE ENTIRE CWA.  WILL KEEP 50-70 PERCENT POPS GOING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT AGAIN THE RAIN SHOULD BE MORE
STRATIFORM IN NATURE.

MUCH COOLER ON MONDAY IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY BEFORE
TAPERING OFF.  INSTABILITY WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE.  CONVECTION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN ON
TUES ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING.  CAPE DOES INCREASE TO
AROUND 1000 J/KG ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE BY THE AFTN BUT DROPS OFF
QUICKLY ACROSS THE PLAINS. GET SOME WARMING ON TUES...HOWEVER TEMPS
WILL STILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UNSETTLED AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM THE 60S AND 70S ON WEDNESDAY BACK INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 90S FROM WEST TO EAST BY FRIDAY. A FEW PIECES
OF ENERGY WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY...AND WITH PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN COMBINING WILL
DECENT LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW...SHOULD SEE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR CONTINUES TO
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SO WILL KEEP MENTION FOR THAT POSSIBILITY IN THE
FORECAST. THURSDAY WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR...HOWEVER INCREASING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL DIMINISH COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS A BIT WITH THE BEST CHANCE EXPECTED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. CHANCES FOR STRONG STORMS WILL BE LESS AS WELL. MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING THE UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA
BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTER SOLUTION VS THE ECMWF ON
FRIDAY...BUT BOTH MODELS SHOW AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
THE MOUNTAINS. THE WETTER GFS CARRIES THE CONVECTION EAST IN THE
EVENING WHILE THE DRIER ECMWF KEEPS THE EASTERN ZONES DRY. WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRIDAY EVENING UNTIL MODELS BECOME
MORE CONSISTENT. FOR SATURDAY...BOTH MODELS BUILD A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE
ECMWF BUILDING THAT RIDGE UP INTO THE ROCKIES AS WELL. THE GFS IS
STARTING TO TREND THAT WAY...BUT STILL SWEEPS A BIT MORE MIDLEVEL
ENERGY ACROSS OUR AREA IN THE EVENING. MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR T-STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL
DIFFERENCES...BUT LEFT REMAINING AREAS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WYOMING TAFS...IFR DEVELOPING THE REST OF THE NIGHT IN FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS WITH MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. BECOMING VFR IN THE MORNING
WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS PRODUCING LOCALIZED MVFR...THEN
IFR DEVELOPING MONDAY EVENING IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS.

NEBRASKA TAFS...WIDESPREAD IFR DEVELOPING THE REST OF THE NIGHT
IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...THEN BECOMING VFR WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS PRODUCING LOCALIZED MVFR...AND VFR MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION.  A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
 MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE 40
PERCENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CLH
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...ZF




000
FXUS65 KCYS 060529
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1129 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 832 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND STRONGER DEEP
LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. PRECIP
HAS BECOME MOSTLY STRATIFORM OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE...AND
LINGERING CONVECTIVE CELLS OVER CHEYENNE COUNTY HAVE NOT SHOWN
MANY SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING OVER THE LAST HOUR. PER COORDINATION
WITH SPC...WE WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED SEVERE TSTM WATCH 391 AS
ANY REMAINING THREAT SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED. FLOODING RAINS WERE
OUR MAIN PROBLEM THROUGH THE LATE AFTN/EVE WITH A TROPICAL TYPE
AIR MASS IN PLACE...AND TALL/SKINNY CAPES CONTRIBUTING TO RATHER
EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES. 3-6 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN PARTS OF
LARAMIE AND SCOTTS BLUFF COUNTIES...RESULTING IN SEVERAL WASHED
OUT ROADS. FLASH FLOOD STATEMENTS ARE ONGOING ATTM.

NOT MANY CHANGES REQUIRED TO THE INHERITED FCST. WE TRANSITIONED
TO MODERATE STRATIFORM RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER FOR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE THROUGH 06Z...AND INCREASED POPS INTO
THE 90-100 PERCENT RANGE. WE ENDED ALL MENTION OF TSTMS AFTER 06Z
AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LITTLE CAPE. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYO. TRENDED TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES AS
WELL GIVEN THE MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME FOG
LATER ON...BUT THINK WINDS WILL STAY STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
LLVLS MIXED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONVECTION HAS REALLY INCREASED THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN OVER
ALBANY/LARAMIE COUNTIES AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
THIS DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOCATED
OVER WESTERN COLORADO/WYOMING.  THE STORMS OVER LARAMIE COUNTY HAVE
BEEN HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS WITH A FEW LOCATIONS SHOWING RADAR DERIVED
AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES.  PLENTIFUL MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CWA WITH PW VALUES ABOVE 1.25 INCHES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.  IT APPEARS THAT THE RAIN IS BECOMING MORE
STRATIFORM THOUGH OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH
SHOULD REDUCE THE HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.  THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG TO SVR
STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER MAINLY THE FAR PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD INSTABILITY (MLCAPES OF 2000-
2500 J/KG) IN NORTHERN SIOUX AND DAWES COUNTIES WITH BULK SHEAR OF
30 KTS.  THERE IS LESS INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH ALONG INTERSTATE 80.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM FOR ZONES ALONG
THE EASTERN CWA BORDER IN THE PANHANDLE.  SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY LATER TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT
PASSING OVER THE ENTIRE CWA.  WILL KEEP 50-70 PERCENT POPS GOING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT AGAIN THE RAIN SHOULD BE MORE
STRATIFORM IN NATURE.

MUCH COOLER ON MONDAY IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY BEFORE
TAPERING OFF.  INSTABILITY WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE.  CONVECTION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN ON
TUES ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING.  CAPE DOES INCREASE TO
AROUND 1000 J/KG ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE BY THE AFTN BUT DROPS OFF
QUICKLY ACROSS THE PLAINS. GET SOME WARMING ON TUES...HOWEVER TEMPS
WILL STILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UNSETTLED AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM THE 60S AND 70S ON WEDNESDAY BACK INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 90S FROM WEST TO EAST BY FRIDAY. A FEW PIECES
OF ENERGY WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY...AND WITH PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN COMBINING WILL
DECENT LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW...SHOULD SEE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR CONTINUES TO
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SO WILL KEEP MENTION FOR THAT POSSIBILITY IN THE
FORECAST. THURSDAY WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR...HOWEVER INCREASING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL DIMINISH COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS A BIT WITH THE BEST CHANCE EXPECTED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. CHANCES FOR STRONG STORMS WILL BE LESS AS WELL. MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING THE UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA
BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTER SOLUTION VS THE ECMWF ON
FRIDAY...BUT BOTH MODELS SHOW AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
THE MOUNTAINS. THE WETTER GFS CARRIES THE CONVECTION EAST IN THE
EVENING WHILE THE DRIER ECMWF KEEPS THE EASTERN ZONES DRY. WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRIDAY EVENING UNTIL MODELS BECOME
MORE CONSISTENT. FOR SATURDAY...BOTH MODELS BUILD A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE
ECMWF BUILDING THAT RIDGE UP INTO THE ROCKIES AS WELL. THE GFS IS
STARTING TO TREND THAT WAY...BUT STILL SWEEPS A BIT MORE MIDLEVEL
ENERGY ACROSS OUR AREA IN THE EVENING. MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR T-STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL
DIFFERENCES...BUT LEFT REMAINING AREAS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WYOMING TAFS...IFR DEVELOPING THE REST OF THE NIGHT IN FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS WITH MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. BECOMING VFR IN THE MORNING
WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS PRODUCING LOCALIZED MVFR...THEN
IFR DEVELOPING MONDAY EVENING IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS.

NEBRASKA TAFS...WIDESPREAD IFR DEVELOPING THE REST OF THE NIGHT
IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...THEN BECOMING VFR WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS PRODUCING LOCALIZED MVFR...AND VFR MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION.  A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
 MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE 40
PERCENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CLH
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...ZF



000
FXUS65 KRIW 060528
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1127 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

A WINTER LIKE STORM WILL INTENSIFY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
WYOMING THIS EVENING. HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTH WERE 30 TO 35 DEGREES
COLDER TODAY FROM YESTERDAY. THIS COOLING WILL CONTINUE. SHOWERS
HAVE BECOME WIDESPREAD WITH MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE
SOUTH BUT SOME HAVE ALSO OCCURRED IN THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS.
A MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
MUDDY GAP AREA AND THIS WILL CAUSE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF
PRECIPITATION RATES. FREEZING LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 9500 TO 9000
FEET AND SNOWFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER WILL
OCCUR ABOVE 9500 FEET TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY AS
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM LITTLE AND IN SOME AREAS WILL CONTINUE
TO FALL OR AT BEST REMAIN STEADY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
SOME AREAS AROUND THE WIND RIVER...ABSAROKA AND BIGHORN MOUNTAINS
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN...THIS ALSO
INCLUDES CASPER MOUNTAIN. THE NAM12 PUTS 3.5 INCHES OVER THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS. THANKFULLY RIVER
LEVELS HAVE FALLEN AS THE SNOW MELT RUNOFF IS ALL BUT OVER...BUT
SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

SIMILAR SOLUTIONS AGAIN OFFERED BY MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST MODELS
REGARDING OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN THIS
COMING WEEK AND WEEKEND. GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS BOTH DEPICT MID-
LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHWEST/SOUTHCENTRAL WYOMING EARLY TUESDAY.
SUSPECT THAT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND PRIOR TO ONSET OF
DEEPER CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE AT LEAST TRIED TO TREND IN
THAT DIRECTION WITH PRECIP FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING FROM 12Z-
18Z/TUESDAY. THIS CIRCULATION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ROCK SPRINGS TO CASPER.
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS LOOK BETTER FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...BUT WIND PROFILES REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN TYPICAL SUMMER THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK SHORTWAVE TO
OUR NORTH WILL NUDGE A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ZONES WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY COULD BE THE FOCUS
FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE BIG HORN BASIN
AND JOHNSON. BEST DYNAMICS WILL ALSO BE ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLAY. SPEED SHEAR PROFILES
WILL STILL REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE...BUT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE WITH NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW. OVERALL...
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY IN WYOMING WITH
CONVECTION BEING SCATTERED AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN. AN UPPER LOW WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE ONSHORE IN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY CAUSING THE UPPER FLOW
TO BACK MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST. THUS...IT LOOKS TO BE DRIER AND
WARMER FOR THURSDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
ACROSS THE WEST BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL
DRY ACROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING FRIDAY AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. FRIDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. WARMER MID-
LEVEL TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WIND AND DRYING
ATMOSPHERE COULD LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST. SATURDAY WILL BE JUST A BIT COOLER WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST WYOMING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS
THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS OFFERED
TODAY ARE QUICKER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS UPPER LOW.
THEREFORE...SATURDAY NOW APPEARS COOLER THAN WHAT IT DID WITH THE
MODEL RUNS FROM YESTERDAY. POTENTIALLY NEXT SUNDAY COULD BE A
PLEASANT DAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES

WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT FOG WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO LOW VFR AND VSBY IMPROVING TO P6SM IN
MOST LOCATIONS BETWEEN 17Z AND 20Z. AREAS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE IN COVERAGE QUICKLY AFTER 12Z. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND LAST
THROUGH THE EVENING...MAINLY AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE DIVIDE. LATE
MONDAY NIGHT...SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN.
MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED MUCH OF THE TIME.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES

AREAS WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG ARE EXPECTED...BUT
NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS WHAT OCCURS EAST OF THE DIVIDE MONDAY MORNING.
THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SHRA ACTIVITY MONDAY MORNING...BUT WITH
DAYTIME HEATING EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BREAK
OUT AND WILL HAVE VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE CONVECTION COULD LINGER WELL INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...AND SOME
SNOW ABOVE 9000 FEET IS IN STORE FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ABOVE
9500 FEET SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE.
VERY HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY WITH LOW MIXING HEIGHTS AND POOR
TO FAIR SMOKE DISPERSAL IS EXPECTED.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...C.BAKER
LONG TERM...CNJ
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...C.BAKER




000
FXUS65 KRIW 060528
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1127 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

A WINTER LIKE STORM WILL INTENSIFY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
WYOMING THIS EVENING. HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTH WERE 30 TO 35 DEGREES
COLDER TODAY FROM YESTERDAY. THIS COOLING WILL CONTINUE. SHOWERS
HAVE BECOME WIDESPREAD WITH MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE
SOUTH BUT SOME HAVE ALSO OCCURRED IN THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS.
A MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
MUDDY GAP AREA AND THIS WILL CAUSE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF
PRECIPITATION RATES. FREEZING LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 9500 TO 9000
FEET AND SNOWFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER WILL
OCCUR ABOVE 9500 FEET TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY AS
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM LITTLE AND IN SOME AREAS WILL CONTINUE
TO FALL OR AT BEST REMAIN STEADY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
SOME AREAS AROUND THE WIND RIVER...ABSAROKA AND BIGHORN MOUNTAINS
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN...THIS ALSO
INCLUDES CASPER MOUNTAIN. THE NAM12 PUTS 3.5 INCHES OVER THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS. THANKFULLY RIVER
LEVELS HAVE FALLEN AS THE SNOW MELT RUNOFF IS ALL BUT OVER...BUT
SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

SIMILAR SOLUTIONS AGAIN OFFERED BY MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST MODELS
REGARDING OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN THIS
COMING WEEK AND WEEKEND. GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS BOTH DEPICT MID-
LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHWEST/SOUTHCENTRAL WYOMING EARLY TUESDAY.
SUSPECT THAT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND PRIOR TO ONSET OF
DEEPER CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE AT LEAST TRIED TO TREND IN
THAT DIRECTION WITH PRECIP FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING FROM 12Z-
18Z/TUESDAY. THIS CIRCULATION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ROCK SPRINGS TO CASPER.
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS LOOK BETTER FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...BUT WIND PROFILES REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN TYPICAL SUMMER THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK SHORTWAVE TO
OUR NORTH WILL NUDGE A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ZONES WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY COULD BE THE FOCUS
FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE BIG HORN BASIN
AND JOHNSON. BEST DYNAMICS WILL ALSO BE ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLAY. SPEED SHEAR PROFILES
WILL STILL REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE...BUT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE WITH NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW. OVERALL...
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY IN WYOMING WITH
CONVECTION BEING SCATTERED AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN. AN UPPER LOW WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE ONSHORE IN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY CAUSING THE UPPER FLOW
TO BACK MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST. THUS...IT LOOKS TO BE DRIER AND
WARMER FOR THURSDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
ACROSS THE WEST BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL
DRY ACROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING FRIDAY AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. FRIDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. WARMER MID-
LEVEL TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WIND AND DRYING
ATMOSPHERE COULD LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST. SATURDAY WILL BE JUST A BIT COOLER WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST WYOMING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS
THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS OFFERED
TODAY ARE QUICKER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS UPPER LOW.
THEREFORE...SATURDAY NOW APPEARS COOLER THAN WHAT IT DID WITH THE
MODEL RUNS FROM YESTERDAY. POTENTIALLY NEXT SUNDAY COULD BE A
PLEASANT DAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES

WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT FOG WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO LOW VFR AND VSBY IMPROVING TO P6SM IN
MOST LOCATIONS BETWEEN 17Z AND 20Z. AREAS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE IN COVERAGE QUICKLY AFTER 12Z. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND LAST
THROUGH THE EVENING...MAINLY AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE DIVIDE. LATE
MONDAY NIGHT...SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN.
MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED MUCH OF THE TIME.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES

AREAS WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG ARE EXPECTED...BUT
NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS WHAT OCCURS EAST OF THE DIVIDE MONDAY MORNING.
THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SHRA ACTIVITY MONDAY MORNING...BUT WITH
DAYTIME HEATING EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BREAK
OUT AND WILL HAVE VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE CONVECTION COULD LINGER WELL INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...AND SOME
SNOW ABOVE 9000 FEET IS IN STORE FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ABOVE
9500 FEET SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE.
VERY HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY WITH LOW MIXING HEIGHTS AND POOR
TO FAIR SMOKE DISPERSAL IS EXPECTED.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...C.BAKER
LONG TERM...CNJ
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...C.BAKER



000
FXUS65 KRIW 060528
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1127 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

A WINTER LIKE STORM WILL INTENSIFY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
WYOMING THIS EVENING. HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTH WERE 30 TO 35 DEGREES
COLDER TODAY FROM YESTERDAY. THIS COOLING WILL CONTINUE. SHOWERS
HAVE BECOME WIDESPREAD WITH MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE
SOUTH BUT SOME HAVE ALSO OCCURRED IN THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS.
A MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
MUDDY GAP AREA AND THIS WILL CAUSE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF
PRECIPITATION RATES. FREEZING LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 9500 TO 9000
FEET AND SNOWFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER WILL
OCCUR ABOVE 9500 FEET TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY AS
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM LITTLE AND IN SOME AREAS WILL CONTINUE
TO FALL OR AT BEST REMAIN STEADY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
SOME AREAS AROUND THE WIND RIVER...ABSAROKA AND BIGHORN MOUNTAINS
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN...THIS ALSO
INCLUDES CASPER MOUNTAIN. THE NAM12 PUTS 3.5 INCHES OVER THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS. THANKFULLY RIVER
LEVELS HAVE FALLEN AS THE SNOW MELT RUNOFF IS ALL BUT OVER...BUT
SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

SIMILAR SOLUTIONS AGAIN OFFERED BY MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST MODELS
REGARDING OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN THIS
COMING WEEK AND WEEKEND. GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS BOTH DEPICT MID-
LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHWEST/SOUTHCENTRAL WYOMING EARLY TUESDAY.
SUSPECT THAT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND PRIOR TO ONSET OF
DEEPER CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE AT LEAST TRIED TO TREND IN
THAT DIRECTION WITH PRECIP FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING FROM 12Z-
18Z/TUESDAY. THIS CIRCULATION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ROCK SPRINGS TO CASPER.
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS LOOK BETTER FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...BUT WIND PROFILES REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN TYPICAL SUMMER THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK SHORTWAVE TO
OUR NORTH WILL NUDGE A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ZONES WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY COULD BE THE FOCUS
FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE BIG HORN BASIN
AND JOHNSON. BEST DYNAMICS WILL ALSO BE ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLAY. SPEED SHEAR PROFILES
WILL STILL REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE...BUT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE WITH NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW. OVERALL...
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY IN WYOMING WITH
CONVECTION BEING SCATTERED AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN. AN UPPER LOW WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE ONSHORE IN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY CAUSING THE UPPER FLOW
TO BACK MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST. THUS...IT LOOKS TO BE DRIER AND
WARMER FOR THURSDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
ACROSS THE WEST BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL
DRY ACROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING FRIDAY AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. FRIDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. WARMER MID-
LEVEL TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WIND AND DRYING
ATMOSPHERE COULD LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST. SATURDAY WILL BE JUST A BIT COOLER WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST WYOMING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS
THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS OFFERED
TODAY ARE QUICKER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS UPPER LOW.
THEREFORE...SATURDAY NOW APPEARS COOLER THAN WHAT IT DID WITH THE
MODEL RUNS FROM YESTERDAY. POTENTIALLY NEXT SUNDAY COULD BE A
PLEASANT DAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES

WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT FOG WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO LOW VFR AND VSBY IMPROVING TO P6SM IN
MOST LOCATIONS BETWEEN 17Z AND 20Z. AREAS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE IN COVERAGE QUICKLY AFTER 12Z. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND LAST
THROUGH THE EVENING...MAINLY AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE DIVIDE. LATE
MONDAY NIGHT...SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN.
MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED MUCH OF THE TIME.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES

AREAS WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG ARE EXPECTED...BUT
NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS WHAT OCCURS EAST OF THE DIVIDE MONDAY MORNING.
THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SHRA ACTIVITY MONDAY MORNING...BUT WITH
DAYTIME HEATING EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BREAK
OUT AND WILL HAVE VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE CONVECTION COULD LINGER WELL INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...AND SOME
SNOW ABOVE 9000 FEET IS IN STORE FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ABOVE
9500 FEET SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE.
VERY HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY WITH LOW MIXING HEIGHTS AND POOR
TO FAIR SMOKE DISPERSAL IS EXPECTED.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...C.BAKER
LONG TERM...CNJ
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...C.BAKER



000
FXUS63 KUNR 060520
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1120 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT HAS MOVED JUST SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE CWA NOW. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD AS SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. BOW ECHO OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD EARLIER THIS
EVENING HAS MOVED EAST OF THE CWA WITH WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM FAR SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL SD...BUT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS HAS DIMINISHED OVER
THE WATCH AREA.

WILL UPDATE TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT AND TO
CANCEL THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM NORTHEAST ND
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST SD...AND INTO CENTRAL WY. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT IS LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL SD.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA...WITH
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ONE SHORTWAVE HAS EXITED
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...WHILE THE NEXT WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS
EASTERN WY INTO WESTERN SD NOW. KUDX RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER EASTERN WY INTO FAR
WESTERN SD...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FURTHER EAST TOWARD
NORTH CENTRAL SD. SKIES RANGE FROM MOSTLY SUNNY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
SD TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD. A FAIRLY
WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA RIGHT NOW...RANGING FROM 60S
OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY TO THE LOWER 90S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
WINDS ARE BREEZY FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS AT LEAST EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. CLOUDS AND
SOMEWHAT FASTER MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN SD TODAY
HAS KEPT ATMOSPHERE MORE STABLE AND CAPPED OVER THIS AREA. SOME
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT ON HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WX WILL BE ACROSS THE CWA...BUT AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF THE
FRONT... ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD...SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST
RISK INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH STRONG SHEAR NEAR AND JUST BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...WITH A LINE OF STORMS POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS EVENING...LIKELY TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...POSSIBLY TURNING INTO MORE OF A WIND THREAT LATER
IN THE EVENING. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE
FRONT OVER SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD LATE TODAY. HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD BE AN ISSUE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
SD...AS ROTATING STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SLOWER MOVERS NEAR THE
FRONT AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE 1.5 TO 2 INCHES THERE.

FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...INSTABILITY LOWERS...ESPECIALLY INTO
NORTHEAST WY...WHERE CLOUDS AND COOLER AIRMASS HAVE KEPT TEMPS DOWN.
THE SEVERE RISK OVER THE BLACK HILLS AREA AND MUCH OF FAR WESTERN SD
WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS...WITH THE FRONT HAVING PASSED BY.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY EARLY EVENING. OVERALL...
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND ON THE COOLER SIDE...WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSHOWER OVER THE BLACK HILLS IN THE AFTERNOON..
OTHERWISE...DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. RETURN FLOW ACROSS
NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD WILL BRING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TUE AFTN/NIGHT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION WED AND THU WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE. MODELS ARE STILL
DIVERGING GREATLY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HOW AN UPPER LOW
OVER CALIFORNIA WILL PHASE BACK INTO THE MAIN FLOW. THE WETTER
SOLUTION IS THE GFS WHICH HAS MOST OF THE ENERGY PUSHING WITHIN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF KEEPS
STRONG UPPER RIDGING CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHICH
KEEPS THE REMNANT LOW PUSHING NORTHEAST THRU THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY DRY UNDER THE RIDGE. AT
THIS TIME...KEPT THE CURRENT FORECAST GOING WITH A CHANCE FOR
STORMS THRU THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES AROUND AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR LOCAL IFR CIGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NE WY AND
WESTERN SD THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY MORNING WITH SCT SHRA. DRIER
AIR WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE REGION LATER MONDAY...WITH CONDS
TRENDING VFR ALL PLACES NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...JC




000
FXUS63 KUNR 060520
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1120 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT HAS MOVED JUST SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE CWA NOW. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD AS SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. BOW ECHO OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD EARLIER THIS
EVENING HAS MOVED EAST OF THE CWA WITH WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM FAR SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL SD...BUT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS HAS DIMINISHED OVER
THE WATCH AREA.

WILL UPDATE TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT AND TO
CANCEL THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM NORTHEAST ND
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST SD...AND INTO CENTRAL WY. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT IS LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL SD.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA...WITH
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ONE SHORTWAVE HAS EXITED
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...WHILE THE NEXT WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS
EASTERN WY INTO WESTERN SD NOW. KUDX RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER EASTERN WY INTO FAR
WESTERN SD...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FURTHER EAST TOWARD
NORTH CENTRAL SD. SKIES RANGE FROM MOSTLY SUNNY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
SD TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD. A FAIRLY
WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA RIGHT NOW...RANGING FROM 60S
OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY TO THE LOWER 90S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
WINDS ARE BREEZY FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS AT LEAST EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. CLOUDS AND
SOMEWHAT FASTER MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN SD TODAY
HAS KEPT ATMOSPHERE MORE STABLE AND CAPPED OVER THIS AREA. SOME
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT ON HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WX WILL BE ACROSS THE CWA...BUT AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF THE
FRONT... ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD...SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST
RISK INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH STRONG SHEAR NEAR AND JUST BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...WITH A LINE OF STORMS POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS EVENING...LIKELY TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...POSSIBLY TURNING INTO MORE OF A WIND THREAT LATER
IN THE EVENING. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE
FRONT OVER SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD LATE TODAY. HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD BE AN ISSUE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
SD...AS ROTATING STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SLOWER MOVERS NEAR THE
FRONT AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE 1.5 TO 2 INCHES THERE.

FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...INSTABILITY LOWERS...ESPECIALLY INTO
NORTHEAST WY...WHERE CLOUDS AND COOLER AIRMASS HAVE KEPT TEMPS DOWN.
THE SEVERE RISK OVER THE BLACK HILLS AREA AND MUCH OF FAR WESTERN SD
WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS...WITH THE FRONT HAVING PASSED BY.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY EARLY EVENING. OVERALL...
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND ON THE COOLER SIDE...WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSHOWER OVER THE BLACK HILLS IN THE AFTERNOON..
OTHERWISE...DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. RETURN FLOW ACROSS
NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD WILL BRING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TUE AFTN/NIGHT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION WED AND THU WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE. MODELS ARE STILL
DIVERGING GREATLY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HOW AN UPPER LOW
OVER CALIFORNIA WILL PHASE BACK INTO THE MAIN FLOW. THE WETTER
SOLUTION IS THE GFS WHICH HAS MOST OF THE ENERGY PUSHING WITHIN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF KEEPS
STRONG UPPER RIDGING CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHICH
KEEPS THE REMNANT LOW PUSHING NORTHEAST THRU THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY DRY UNDER THE RIDGE. AT
THIS TIME...KEPT THE CURRENT FORECAST GOING WITH A CHANCE FOR
STORMS THRU THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES AROUND AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR LOCAL IFR CIGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NE WY AND
WESTERN SD THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY MORNING WITH SCT SHRA. DRIER
AIR WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE REGION LATER MONDAY...WITH CONDS
TRENDING VFR ALL PLACES NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...JC



000
FXUS63 KUNR 060330
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
930 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT HAS MOVED JUST SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE CWA NOW. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD AS SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. BOW ECHO OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD EARLIER THIS
EVENING HAS MOVED EAST OF THE CWA WITH WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM FAR SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL SD...BUT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS HAS DIMINISHED OVER
THE WATCH AREA.

WILL UPDATE TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT AND TO
CANCEL THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM NORTHEAST ND
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST SD...AND INTO CENTRAL WY. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT IS LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL SD.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA...WITH
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ONE SHORTWAVE HAS EXITED
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...WHILE THE NEXT WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS
EASTERN WY INTO WESTERN SD NOW. KUDX RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER EASTERN WY INTO FAR
WESTERN SD...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FURTHER EAST TOWARD
NORTH CENTRAL SD. SKIES RANGE FROM MOSTLY SUNNY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
SD TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD. A FAIRLY
WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA RIGHT NOW...RANGING FROM 60S
OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY TO THE LOWER 90S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
WINDS ARE BREEZY FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS AT LEAST EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. CLOUDS AND
SOMEWHAT FASTER MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN SD TODAY
HAS KEPT ATMOSPHERE MORE STABLE AND CAPPED OVER THIS AREA. SOME
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT ON HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WX WILL BE ACROSS THE CWA...BUT AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF THE
FRONT... ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD...SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST
RISK INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH STRONG SHEAR NEAR AND JUST BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...WITH A LINE OF STORMS POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS EVENING...LIKELY TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...POSSIBLY TURNING INTO MORE OF A WIND TRHEAT LATER IN
THE EVENING. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE FRONT
OVER SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD LATE TODAY. HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD BE AN ISSUE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD...AS
ROTATING STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SLOWER MOVERS NEAR THE FRONT AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE 1.5 TO 2 INCHES THERE.

FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...INSTABILITY LOWERS...ESPECIALLY INTO
NORTHEAST WY...WHERE CLOUDS AND COOLER AIRMASS HAVE KEPT TEMPS DOWN.
THE SEVERE RISK OVER THE BLACK HILLS AREA AND MUCH OF FAR WESTERN SD
WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS...WITH THE FRONT HAVING PASSED BY.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY EARLY EVENING. OVERALL...
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND ON THE COOLER SIDE...WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSHOWER OVER THE BLACK HILLS IN THE AFTERNOON..
OTHERWISE...DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. RETURN FLOW ACROSS
NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD WILL BRING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TUE AFTN/NIGHT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION WED AND THU WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE. MODELS ARE STILL
DIVERGING GREATLY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HOW AN UPPER LOW
OVER CALIFORNIA WILL PHASE BACK INTO THE MAIN FLOW. THE WETTER
SOLUTION IS THE GFS WHICH HAS MOST OF THE ENERGY PUSHING WITHIN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF KEEPS
STRONG UPPER RIDGING CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHICH
KEEPS THE REMNANT LOW PUSHING NORTHEAST THRU THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY DRY UNDER THE RIDGE. AT
THIS TIME...KEPT THE CURRENT FORECAST GOING WITH A CHANCE FOR
STORMS THRU THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES AROUND AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 531 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NUMEROUS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
WY AND WESTERN SD THIS EVENING AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD
THIS EVENING...WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG IT. A FEW OF
THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. AREAS OF
MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH RAINFALL. MVFR/IFR
CIGS WILL BUILD INTO MUCH OF NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND
NORTHWEST SD OVERNIGHT AND LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...26



000
FXUS65 KCYS 060258
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
858 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 832 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND STRONGER DEEP
LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. PRECIP
HAS BECOME MOSTLY STRATIFORM OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE...AND
LINGERING CONVECTIVE CELLS OVER CHEYENNE COUNTY HAVE NOT SHOWN
MANY SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING OVER THE LAST HOUR. PER COORDINATION
WITH SPC...WE WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED SEVERE TSTM WATCH 391 AS
ANY REMAINING THREAT SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED. FLOODING RAINS WERE
OUR MAIN PROBLEM THROUGH THE LATE AFTN/EVE WITH A TROPICAL TYPE
AIR MASS IN PLACE...AND TALL/SKINNY CAPES CONTRIBUTING TO RATHER
EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES. 3-6 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN PARTS OF
LARAMIE AND SCOTTS BLUFF COUNTIES...RESULTING IN SEVERAL WASHED
OUT ROADS. FLASH FLOOD STATEMENTS ARE ONGOING ATTM.

NOT MANY CHANGES REQUIRED TO THE INHERITED FCST. WE TRANSITIONED
TO MODERATE STRATIFORM RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER FOR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE THROUGH 06Z...AND INCREASED POPS INTO
THE 90-100 PERCENT RANGE. WE ENDED ALL MENTION OF TSTMS AFTER 06Z
AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LITTLE CAPE. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYO. TRENDED TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES AS
WELL GIVEN THE MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME FOG
LATER ON...BUT THINK WINDS WILL STAY STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
LLVLS MIXED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONVECTION HAS REALLY INCREASED THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN OVER
ALBANY/LARAMIE COUNTIES AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
THIS DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOCATED
OVER WESTERN COLORADO/WYOMING.  THE STORMS OVER LARAMIE COUNTY HAVE
BEEN HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS WITH A FEW LOCATIONS SHOWING RADAR DERIVED
AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES.  PLENTIFUL MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CWA WITH PW VALUES ABOVE 1.25 INCHES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.  IT APPEARS THAT THE RAIN IS BECOMING MORE
STRATIFORM THOUGH OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH
SHOULD REDUCE THE HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.  THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG TO SVR
STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER MAINLY THE FAR PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD INSTABILITY (MLCAPES OF 2000-
2500 J/KG) IN NORTHERN SIOUX AND DAWES COUNTIES WITH BULK SHEAR OF
30 KTS.  THERE IS LESS INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH ALONG INTERSTATE 80.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM FOR ZONES ALONG
THE EASTERN CWA BORDER IN THE PANHANDLE.  SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY LATER TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT
PASSING OVER THE ENTIRE CWA.  WILL KEEP 50-70 PERCENT POPS GOING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT AGAIN THE RAIN SHOULD BE MORE
STRATIFORM IN NATURE.

MUCH COOLER ON MONDAY IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY BEFORE
TAPERING OFF.  INSTABILITY WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE.  CONVECTION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN ON
TUES ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING.  CAPE DOES INCREASE TO
AROUND 1000 J/KG ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE BY THE AFTN BUT DROPS OFF
QUICKLY ACROSS THE PLAINS. GET SOME WARMING ON TUES...HOWEVER TEMPS
WILL STILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UNSETTLED AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM THE 60S AND 70S ON WEDNESDAY BACK INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 90S FROM WEST TO EAST BY FRIDAY. A FEW PIECES
OF ENERGY WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY...AND WITH PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN COMBINING WILL
DECENT LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW...SHOULD SEE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR CONTINUES TO
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SO WILL KEEP MENTION FOR THAT POSSIBILITY IN THE
FORECAST. THURSDAY WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR...HOWEVER INCREASING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL DIMINISH COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS A BIT WITH THE BEST CHANCE EXPECTED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. CHANCES FOR STRONG STORMS WILL BE LESS AS WELL. MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING THE UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA
BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTER SOLUTION VS THE ECMWF ON
FRIDAY...BUT BOTH MODELS SHOW AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
THE MOUNTAINS. THE WETTER GFS CARRIES THE CONVECTION EAST IN THE
EVENING WHILE THE DRIER ECMWF KEEPS THE EASTERN ZONES DRY. WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRIDAY EVENING UNTIL MODELS BECOME
MORE CONSISTENT. FOR SATURDAY...BOTH MODELS BUILD A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE
ECMWF BUILDING THAT RIDGE UP INTO THE ROCKIES AS WELL. THE GFS IS
STARTING TO TREND THAT WAY...BUT STILL SWEEPS A BIT MORE MIDLEVEL
ENERGY ACROSS OUR AREA IN THE EVENING. MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR T-STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL
DIFFERENCES...BUT LEFT REMAINING AREAS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 602 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS AND IS
WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH THE HIGH COUNTRY AT 00Z...WITH
GUSTY NORTH WINDS OCCURRING IN ITS WAKE. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY. STILL
THINK THAT RAIN AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT WITH STRATUS DEVELOPING AS WELL OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
MAINLY AFTER 04Z. IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CONFINED ALONG THE
CHEYENNE RIDGE WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD
ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE MID MONDAY MORNING BUT
NOT CONFIDENT CIGS WILL BECOME VFR...EXCEPT FOR KAIA AND KCDR.
LIKELY WILL SEE SCT-BKN MVFR CIGS PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND T-STORMS RETURNING MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION.  A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
 MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE 40
PERCENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CLH
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...ZF



000
FXUS65 KCYS 060258
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
858 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 832 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND STRONGER DEEP
LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. PRECIP
HAS BECOME MOSTLY STRATIFORM OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE...AND
LINGERING CONVECTIVE CELLS OVER CHEYENNE COUNTY HAVE NOT SHOWN
MANY SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING OVER THE LAST HOUR. PER COORDINATION
WITH SPC...WE WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED SEVERE TSTM WATCH 391 AS
ANY REMAINING THREAT SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED. FLOODING RAINS WERE
OUR MAIN PROBLEM THROUGH THE LATE AFTN/EVE WITH A TROPICAL TYPE
AIR MASS IN PLACE...AND TALL/SKINNY CAPES CONTRIBUTING TO RATHER
EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES. 3-6 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN PARTS OF
LARAMIE AND SCOTTS BLUFF COUNTIES...RESULTING IN SEVERAL WASHED
OUT ROADS. FLASH FLOOD STATEMENTS ARE ONGOING ATTM.

NOT MANY CHANGES REQUIRED TO THE INHERITED FCST. WE TRANSITIONED
TO MODERATE STRATIFORM RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER FOR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE THROUGH 06Z...AND INCREASED POPS INTO
THE 90-100 PERCENT RANGE. WE ENDED ALL MENTION OF TSTMS AFTER 06Z
AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LITTLE CAPE. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYO. TRENDED TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES AS
WELL GIVEN THE MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME FOG
LATER ON...BUT THINK WINDS WILL STAY STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
LLVLS MIXED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONVECTION HAS REALLY INCREASED THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN OVER
ALBANY/LARAMIE COUNTIES AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
THIS DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOCATED
OVER WESTERN COLORADO/WYOMING.  THE STORMS OVER LARAMIE COUNTY HAVE
BEEN HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS WITH A FEW LOCATIONS SHOWING RADAR DERIVED
AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES.  PLENTIFUL MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CWA WITH PW VALUES ABOVE 1.25 INCHES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.  IT APPEARS THAT THE RAIN IS BECOMING MORE
STRATIFORM THOUGH OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH
SHOULD REDUCE THE HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.  THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG TO SVR
STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER MAINLY THE FAR PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD INSTABILITY (MLCAPES OF 2000-
2500 J/KG) IN NORTHERN SIOUX AND DAWES COUNTIES WITH BULK SHEAR OF
30 KTS.  THERE IS LESS INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH ALONG INTERSTATE 80.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM FOR ZONES ALONG
THE EASTERN CWA BORDER IN THE PANHANDLE.  SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY LATER TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT
PASSING OVER THE ENTIRE CWA.  WILL KEEP 50-70 PERCENT POPS GOING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT AGAIN THE RAIN SHOULD BE MORE
STRATIFORM IN NATURE.

MUCH COOLER ON MONDAY IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY BEFORE
TAPERING OFF.  INSTABILITY WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE.  CONVECTION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN ON
TUES ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING.  CAPE DOES INCREASE TO
AROUND 1000 J/KG ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE BY THE AFTN BUT DROPS OFF
QUICKLY ACROSS THE PLAINS. GET SOME WARMING ON TUES...HOWEVER TEMPS
WILL STILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UNSETTLED AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM THE 60S AND 70S ON WEDNESDAY BACK INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 90S FROM WEST TO EAST BY FRIDAY. A FEW PIECES
OF ENERGY WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY...AND WITH PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN COMBINING WILL
DECENT LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW...SHOULD SEE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR CONTINUES TO
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SO WILL KEEP MENTION FOR THAT POSSIBILITY IN THE
FORECAST. THURSDAY WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR...HOWEVER INCREASING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL DIMINISH COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS A BIT WITH THE BEST CHANCE EXPECTED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. CHANCES FOR STRONG STORMS WILL BE LESS AS WELL. MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING THE UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA
BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTER SOLUTION VS THE ECMWF ON
FRIDAY...BUT BOTH MODELS SHOW AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
THE MOUNTAINS. THE WETTER GFS CARRIES THE CONVECTION EAST IN THE
EVENING WHILE THE DRIER ECMWF KEEPS THE EASTERN ZONES DRY. WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRIDAY EVENING UNTIL MODELS BECOME
MORE CONSISTENT. FOR SATURDAY...BOTH MODELS BUILD A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE
ECMWF BUILDING THAT RIDGE UP INTO THE ROCKIES AS WELL. THE GFS IS
STARTING TO TREND THAT WAY...BUT STILL SWEEPS A BIT MORE MIDLEVEL
ENERGY ACROSS OUR AREA IN THE EVENING. MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR T-STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL
DIFFERENCES...BUT LEFT REMAINING AREAS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 602 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS AND IS
WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH THE HIGH COUNTRY AT 00Z...WITH
GUSTY NORTH WINDS OCCURRING IN ITS WAKE. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY. STILL
THINK THAT RAIN AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT WITH STRATUS DEVELOPING AS WELL OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
MAINLY AFTER 04Z. IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CONFINED ALONG THE
CHEYENNE RIDGE WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD
ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE MID MONDAY MORNING BUT
NOT CONFIDENT CIGS WILL BECOME VFR...EXCEPT FOR KAIA AND KCDR.
LIKELY WILL SEE SCT-BKN MVFR CIGS PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND T-STORMS RETURNING MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION.  A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
 MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE 40
PERCENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CLH
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...ZF



000
FXUS65 KCYS 060258
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
858 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 832 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND STRONGER DEEP
LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. PRECIP
HAS BECOME MOSTLY STRATIFORM OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE...AND
LINGERING CONVECTIVE CELLS OVER CHEYENNE COUNTY HAVE NOT SHOWN
MANY SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING OVER THE LAST HOUR. PER COORDINATION
WITH SPC...WE WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED SEVERE TSTM WATCH 391 AS
ANY REMAINING THREAT SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED. FLOODING RAINS WERE
OUR MAIN PROBLEM THROUGH THE LATE AFTN/EVE WITH A TROPICAL TYPE
AIR MASS IN PLACE...AND TALL/SKINNY CAPES CONTRIBUTING TO RATHER
EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES. 3-6 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN PARTS OF
LARAMIE AND SCOTTS BLUFF COUNTIES...RESULTING IN SEVERAL WASHED
OUT ROADS. FLASH FLOOD STATEMENTS ARE ONGOING ATTM.

NOT MANY CHANGES REQUIRED TO THE INHERITED FCST. WE TRANSITIONED
TO MODERATE STRATIFORM RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER FOR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE THROUGH 06Z...AND INCREASED POPS INTO
THE 90-100 PERCENT RANGE. WE ENDED ALL MENTION OF TSTMS AFTER 06Z
AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LITTLE CAPE. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYO. TRENDED TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES AS
WELL GIVEN THE MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME FOG
LATER ON...BUT THINK WINDS WILL STAY STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
LLVLS MIXED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONVECTION HAS REALLY INCREASED THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN OVER
ALBANY/LARAMIE COUNTIES AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
THIS DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOCATED
OVER WESTERN COLORADO/WYOMING.  THE STORMS OVER LARAMIE COUNTY HAVE
BEEN HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS WITH A FEW LOCATIONS SHOWING RADAR DERIVED
AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES.  PLENTIFUL MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CWA WITH PW VALUES ABOVE 1.25 INCHES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.  IT APPEARS THAT THE RAIN IS BECOMING MORE
STRATIFORM THOUGH OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH
SHOULD REDUCE THE HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.  THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG TO SVR
STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER MAINLY THE FAR PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD INSTABILITY (MLCAPES OF 2000-
2500 J/KG) IN NORTHERN SIOUX AND DAWES COUNTIES WITH BULK SHEAR OF
30 KTS.  THERE IS LESS INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH ALONG INTERSTATE 80.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM FOR ZONES ALONG
THE EASTERN CWA BORDER IN THE PANHANDLE.  SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY LATER TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT
PASSING OVER THE ENTIRE CWA.  WILL KEEP 50-70 PERCENT POPS GOING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT AGAIN THE RAIN SHOULD BE MORE
STRATIFORM IN NATURE.

MUCH COOLER ON MONDAY IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY BEFORE
TAPERING OFF.  INSTABILITY WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE.  CONVECTION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN ON
TUES ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING.  CAPE DOES INCREASE TO
AROUND 1000 J/KG ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE BY THE AFTN BUT DROPS OFF
QUICKLY ACROSS THE PLAINS. GET SOME WARMING ON TUES...HOWEVER TEMPS
WILL STILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UNSETTLED AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM THE 60S AND 70S ON WEDNESDAY BACK INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 90S FROM WEST TO EAST BY FRIDAY. A FEW PIECES
OF ENERGY WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY...AND WITH PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN COMBINING WILL
DECENT LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW...SHOULD SEE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR CONTINUES TO
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SO WILL KEEP MENTION FOR THAT POSSIBILITY IN THE
FORECAST. THURSDAY WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR...HOWEVER INCREASING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL DIMINISH COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS A BIT WITH THE BEST CHANCE EXPECTED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. CHANCES FOR STRONG STORMS WILL BE LESS AS WELL. MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING THE UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA
BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTER SOLUTION VS THE ECMWF ON
FRIDAY...BUT BOTH MODELS SHOW AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
THE MOUNTAINS. THE WETTER GFS CARRIES THE CONVECTION EAST IN THE
EVENING WHILE THE DRIER ECMWF KEEPS THE EASTERN ZONES DRY. WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRIDAY EVENING UNTIL MODELS BECOME
MORE CONSISTENT. FOR SATURDAY...BOTH MODELS BUILD A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE
ECMWF BUILDING THAT RIDGE UP INTO THE ROCKIES AS WELL. THE GFS IS
STARTING TO TREND THAT WAY...BUT STILL SWEEPS A BIT MORE MIDLEVEL
ENERGY ACROSS OUR AREA IN THE EVENING. MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR T-STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL
DIFFERENCES...BUT LEFT REMAINING AREAS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 602 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS AND IS
WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH THE HIGH COUNTRY AT 00Z...WITH
GUSTY NORTH WINDS OCCURRING IN ITS WAKE. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY. STILL
THINK THAT RAIN AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT WITH STRATUS DEVELOPING AS WELL OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
MAINLY AFTER 04Z. IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CONFINED ALONG THE
CHEYENNE RIDGE WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD
ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE MID MONDAY MORNING BUT
NOT CONFIDENT CIGS WILL BECOME VFR...EXCEPT FOR KAIA AND KCDR.
LIKELY WILL SEE SCT-BKN MVFR CIGS PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND T-STORMS RETURNING MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION.  A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
 MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE 40
PERCENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CLH
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...ZF



000
FXUS65 KCYS 060258
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
858 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 832 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND STRONGER DEEP
LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. PRECIP
HAS BECOME MOSTLY STRATIFORM OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE...AND
LINGERING CONVECTIVE CELLS OVER CHEYENNE COUNTY HAVE NOT SHOWN
MANY SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING OVER THE LAST HOUR. PER COORDINATION
WITH SPC...WE WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED SEVERE TSTM WATCH 391 AS
ANY REMAINING THREAT SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED. FLOODING RAINS WERE
OUR MAIN PROBLEM THROUGH THE LATE AFTN/EVE WITH A TROPICAL TYPE
AIR MASS IN PLACE...AND TALL/SKINNY CAPES CONTRIBUTING TO RATHER
EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES. 3-6 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN PARTS OF
LARAMIE AND SCOTTS BLUFF COUNTIES...RESULTING IN SEVERAL WASHED
OUT ROADS. FLASH FLOOD STATEMENTS ARE ONGOING ATTM.

NOT MANY CHANGES REQUIRED TO THE INHERITED FCST. WE TRANSITIONED
TO MODERATE STRATIFORM RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER FOR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE THROUGH 06Z...AND INCREASED POPS INTO
THE 90-100 PERCENT RANGE. WE ENDED ALL MENTION OF TSTMS AFTER 06Z
AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LITTLE CAPE. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYO. TRENDED TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES AS
WELL GIVEN THE MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME FOG
LATER ON...BUT THINK WINDS WILL STAY STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
LLVLS MIXED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONVECTION HAS REALLY INCREASED THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN OVER
ALBANY/LARAMIE COUNTIES AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
THIS DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOCATED
OVER WESTERN COLORADO/WYOMING.  THE STORMS OVER LARAMIE COUNTY HAVE
BEEN HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS WITH A FEW LOCATIONS SHOWING RADAR DERIVED
AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES.  PLENTIFUL MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CWA WITH PW VALUES ABOVE 1.25 INCHES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.  IT APPEARS THAT THE RAIN IS BECOMING MORE
STRATIFORM THOUGH OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH
SHOULD REDUCE THE HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.  THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG TO SVR
STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER MAINLY THE FAR PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD INSTABILITY (MLCAPES OF 2000-
2500 J/KG) IN NORTHERN SIOUX AND DAWES COUNTIES WITH BULK SHEAR OF
30 KTS.  THERE IS LESS INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH ALONG INTERSTATE 80.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM FOR ZONES ALONG
THE EASTERN CWA BORDER IN THE PANHANDLE.  SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY LATER TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT
PASSING OVER THE ENTIRE CWA.  WILL KEEP 50-70 PERCENT POPS GOING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT AGAIN THE RAIN SHOULD BE MORE
STRATIFORM IN NATURE.

MUCH COOLER ON MONDAY IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY BEFORE
TAPERING OFF.  INSTABILITY WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE.  CONVECTION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN ON
TUES ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING.  CAPE DOES INCREASE TO
AROUND 1000 J/KG ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE BY THE AFTN BUT DROPS OFF
QUICKLY ACROSS THE PLAINS. GET SOME WARMING ON TUES...HOWEVER TEMPS
WILL STILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UNSETTLED AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM THE 60S AND 70S ON WEDNESDAY BACK INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 90S FROM WEST TO EAST BY FRIDAY. A FEW PIECES
OF ENERGY WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY...AND WITH PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN COMBINING WILL
DECENT LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW...SHOULD SEE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR CONTINUES TO
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SO WILL KEEP MENTION FOR THAT POSSIBILITY IN THE
FORECAST. THURSDAY WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR...HOWEVER INCREASING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL DIMINISH COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS A BIT WITH THE BEST CHANCE EXPECTED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. CHANCES FOR STRONG STORMS WILL BE LESS AS WELL. MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING THE UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA
BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTER SOLUTION VS THE ECMWF ON
FRIDAY...BUT BOTH MODELS SHOW AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
THE MOUNTAINS. THE WETTER GFS CARRIES THE CONVECTION EAST IN THE
EVENING WHILE THE DRIER ECMWF KEEPS THE EASTERN ZONES DRY. WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRIDAY EVENING UNTIL MODELS BECOME
MORE CONSISTENT. FOR SATURDAY...BOTH MODELS BUILD A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE
ECMWF BUILDING THAT RIDGE UP INTO THE ROCKIES AS WELL. THE GFS IS
STARTING TO TREND THAT WAY...BUT STILL SWEEPS A BIT MORE MIDLEVEL
ENERGY ACROSS OUR AREA IN THE EVENING. MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR T-STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL
DIFFERENCES...BUT LEFT REMAINING AREAS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 602 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS AND IS
WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH THE HIGH COUNTRY AT 00Z...WITH
GUSTY NORTH WINDS OCCURRING IN ITS WAKE. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY. STILL
THINK THAT RAIN AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT WITH STRATUS DEVELOPING AS WELL OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
MAINLY AFTER 04Z. IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CONFINED ALONG THE
CHEYENNE RIDGE WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD
ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE MID MONDAY MORNING BUT
NOT CONFIDENT CIGS WILL BECOME VFR...EXCEPT FOR KAIA AND KCDR.
LIKELY WILL SEE SCT-BKN MVFR CIGS PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND T-STORMS RETURNING MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION.  A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
 MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE 40
PERCENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CLH
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...ZF



000
FXUS65 KCYS 060002
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
602 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONVECTION HAS REALLY INCREASED THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN OVER
ALBANY/LARAMIE COUNTIES AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
THIS DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOCATED
OVER WESTERN COLORADO/WYOMING.  THE STORMS OVER LARAMIE COUNTY HAVE
BEEN HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS WITH A FEW LOCATIONS SHOWING RADAR DERIVED
AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES.  PLENTIFUL MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CWA WITH PW VALUES ABOVE 1.25 INCHES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.  IT APPEARS THAT THE RAIN IS BECOMING MORE
STRATIFORM THOUGH OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH
SHOULD REDUCE THE HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.  THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG TO SVR
STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER MAINLY THE FAR PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD INSTABILITY (MLCAPES OF 2000-
2500 J/KG) IN NORTHERN SIOUX AND DAWES COUNTIES WITH BULK SHEAR OF
30 KTS.  THERE IS LESS INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH ALONG INTERSTATE 80.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM FOR ZONES ALONG
THE EASTERN CWA BORDER IN THE PANHANDLE.  SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY LATER TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT
PASSING OVER THE ENTIRE CWA.  WILL KEEP 50-70 PERCENT POPS GOING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT AGAIN THE RAIN SHOULD BE MORE
STRATIFORM IN NATURE.

MUCH COOLER ON MONDAY IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY BEFORE
TAPERING OFF.  INSTABILITY WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE.  CONVECTION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN ON
TUES ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING.  CAPE DOES INCREASE TO
AROUND 1000 J/KG ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE BY THE AFTN BUT DROPS OFF
QUICKLY ACROSS THE PLAINS. GET SOME WARMING ON TUES...HOWEVER TEMPS
WILL STILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UNSETTLED AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM THE 60S AND 70S ON WEDNESDAY BACK INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 90S FROM WEST TO EAST BY FRIDAY. A FEW PIECES
OF ENERGY WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY...AND WITH PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN COMBINING WILL
DECENT LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW...SHOULD SEE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR CONTINUES TO
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SO WILL KEEP MENTION FOR THAT POSSIBILITY IN THE
FORECAST. THURSDAY WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR...HOWEVER INCREASING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL DIMINISH COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS A BIT WITH THE BEST CHANCE EXPECTED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. CHANCES FOR STRONG STORMS WILL BE LESS AS WELL. MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING THE UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA
BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTER SOLUTION VS THE ECMWF ON
FRIDAY...BUT BOTH MODELS SHOW AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
THE MOUNTAINS. THE WETTER GFS CARRIES THE CONVECTION EAST IN THE
EVENING WHILE THE DRIER ECMWF KEEPS THE EASTERN ZONES DRY. WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRIDAY EVENING UNTIL MODELS BECOME
MORE CONSISTENT. FOR SATURDAY...BOTH MODELS BUILD A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE
ECMWF BUILDING THAT RIDGE UP INTO THE ROCKIES AS WELL. THE GFS IS
STARTING TO TREND THAT WAY...BUT STILL SWEEPS A BIT MORE MIDLEVEL
ENERGY ACROSS OUR AREA IN THE EVENING. MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR T-STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL
DIFFERENCES...BUT LEFT REMAINING AREAS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 602 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS AND IS
WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH THE HIGH COUNTRY AT 00Z...WITH
GUSTY NORTH WINDS OCCURRING IN ITS WAKE. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY. STILL
THINK THAT RAIN AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT WITH STRATUS DEVELOPING AS WELL OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
MAINLY AFTER 04Z. IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CONFINED ALONG THE
CHEYENNE RIDGE WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD
ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE MID MONDAY MORNING BUT
NOT CONFIDENT CIGS WILL BECOME VFR...EXCEPT FOR KAIA AND KCDR.
LIKELY WILL SEE SCT-BKN MVFR CIGS PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND T-STORMS RETURNING MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION.  A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
 MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE 40
PERCENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...ZF




000
FXUS65 KCYS 060002
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
602 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONVECTION HAS REALLY INCREASED THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN OVER
ALBANY/LARAMIE COUNTIES AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
THIS DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOCATED
OVER WESTERN COLORADO/WYOMING.  THE STORMS OVER LARAMIE COUNTY HAVE
BEEN HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS WITH A FEW LOCATIONS SHOWING RADAR DERIVED
AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES.  PLENTIFUL MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CWA WITH PW VALUES ABOVE 1.25 INCHES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.  IT APPEARS THAT THE RAIN IS BECOMING MORE
STRATIFORM THOUGH OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH
SHOULD REDUCE THE HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.  THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG TO SVR
STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER MAINLY THE FAR PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD INSTABILITY (MLCAPES OF 2000-
2500 J/KG) IN NORTHERN SIOUX AND DAWES COUNTIES WITH BULK SHEAR OF
30 KTS.  THERE IS LESS INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH ALONG INTERSTATE 80.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM FOR ZONES ALONG
THE EASTERN CWA BORDER IN THE PANHANDLE.  SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY LATER TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT
PASSING OVER THE ENTIRE CWA.  WILL KEEP 50-70 PERCENT POPS GOING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT AGAIN THE RAIN SHOULD BE MORE
STRATIFORM IN NATURE.

MUCH COOLER ON MONDAY IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY BEFORE
TAPERING OFF.  INSTABILITY WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE.  CONVECTION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN ON
TUES ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING.  CAPE DOES INCREASE TO
AROUND 1000 J/KG ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE BY THE AFTN BUT DROPS OFF
QUICKLY ACROSS THE PLAINS. GET SOME WARMING ON TUES...HOWEVER TEMPS
WILL STILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UNSETTLED AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM THE 60S AND 70S ON WEDNESDAY BACK INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 90S FROM WEST TO EAST BY FRIDAY. A FEW PIECES
OF ENERGY WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY...AND WITH PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN COMBINING WILL
DECENT LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW...SHOULD SEE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR CONTINUES TO
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SO WILL KEEP MENTION FOR THAT POSSIBILITY IN THE
FORECAST. THURSDAY WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR...HOWEVER INCREASING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL DIMINISH COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS A BIT WITH THE BEST CHANCE EXPECTED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. CHANCES FOR STRONG STORMS WILL BE LESS AS WELL. MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING THE UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA
BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTER SOLUTION VS THE ECMWF ON
FRIDAY...BUT BOTH MODELS SHOW AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
THE MOUNTAINS. THE WETTER GFS CARRIES THE CONVECTION EAST IN THE
EVENING WHILE THE DRIER ECMWF KEEPS THE EASTERN ZONES DRY. WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRIDAY EVENING UNTIL MODELS BECOME
MORE CONSISTENT. FOR SATURDAY...BOTH MODELS BUILD A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE
ECMWF BUILDING THAT RIDGE UP INTO THE ROCKIES AS WELL. THE GFS IS
STARTING TO TREND THAT WAY...BUT STILL SWEEPS A BIT MORE MIDLEVEL
ENERGY ACROSS OUR AREA IN THE EVENING. MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR T-STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL
DIFFERENCES...BUT LEFT REMAINING AREAS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 602 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS AND IS
WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH THE HIGH COUNTRY AT 00Z...WITH
GUSTY NORTH WINDS OCCURRING IN ITS WAKE. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY. STILL
THINK THAT RAIN AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT WITH STRATUS DEVELOPING AS WELL OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
MAINLY AFTER 04Z. IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CONFINED ALONG THE
CHEYENNE RIDGE WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD
ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE MID MONDAY MORNING BUT
NOT CONFIDENT CIGS WILL BECOME VFR...EXCEPT FOR KAIA AND KCDR.
LIKELY WILL SEE SCT-BKN MVFR CIGS PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND T-STORMS RETURNING MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION.  A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
 MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE 40
PERCENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...ZF



000
FXUS65 KCYS 060002
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
602 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONVECTION HAS REALLY INCREASED THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN OVER
ALBANY/LARAMIE COUNTIES AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
THIS DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOCATED
OVER WESTERN COLORADO/WYOMING.  THE STORMS OVER LARAMIE COUNTY HAVE
BEEN HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS WITH A FEW LOCATIONS SHOWING RADAR DERIVED
AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES.  PLENTIFUL MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CWA WITH PW VALUES ABOVE 1.25 INCHES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.  IT APPEARS THAT THE RAIN IS BECOMING MORE
STRATIFORM THOUGH OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH
SHOULD REDUCE THE HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.  THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG TO SVR
STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER MAINLY THE FAR PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD INSTABILITY (MLCAPES OF 2000-
2500 J/KG) IN NORTHERN SIOUX AND DAWES COUNTIES WITH BULK SHEAR OF
30 KTS.  THERE IS LESS INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH ALONG INTERSTATE 80.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM FOR ZONES ALONG
THE EASTERN CWA BORDER IN THE PANHANDLE.  SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY LATER TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT
PASSING OVER THE ENTIRE CWA.  WILL KEEP 50-70 PERCENT POPS GOING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT AGAIN THE RAIN SHOULD BE MORE
STRATIFORM IN NATURE.

MUCH COOLER ON MONDAY IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY BEFORE
TAPERING OFF.  INSTABILITY WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE.  CONVECTION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN ON
TUES ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING.  CAPE DOES INCREASE TO
AROUND 1000 J/KG ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE BY THE AFTN BUT DROPS OFF
QUICKLY ACROSS THE PLAINS. GET SOME WARMING ON TUES...HOWEVER TEMPS
WILL STILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UNSETTLED AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM THE 60S AND 70S ON WEDNESDAY BACK INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 90S FROM WEST TO EAST BY FRIDAY. A FEW PIECES
OF ENERGY WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY...AND WITH PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN COMBINING WILL
DECENT LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW...SHOULD SEE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR CONTINUES TO
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SO WILL KEEP MENTION FOR THAT POSSIBILITY IN THE
FORECAST. THURSDAY WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR...HOWEVER INCREASING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL DIMINISH COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS A BIT WITH THE BEST CHANCE EXPECTED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. CHANCES FOR STRONG STORMS WILL BE LESS AS WELL. MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING THE UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA
BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTER SOLUTION VS THE ECMWF ON
FRIDAY...BUT BOTH MODELS SHOW AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
THE MOUNTAINS. THE WETTER GFS CARRIES THE CONVECTION EAST IN THE
EVENING WHILE THE DRIER ECMWF KEEPS THE EASTERN ZONES DRY. WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRIDAY EVENING UNTIL MODELS BECOME
MORE CONSISTENT. FOR SATURDAY...BOTH MODELS BUILD A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE
ECMWF BUILDING THAT RIDGE UP INTO THE ROCKIES AS WELL. THE GFS IS
STARTING TO TREND THAT WAY...BUT STILL SWEEPS A BIT MORE MIDLEVEL
ENERGY ACROSS OUR AREA IN THE EVENING. MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR T-STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL
DIFFERENCES...BUT LEFT REMAINING AREAS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 602 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS AND IS
WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH THE HIGH COUNTRY AT 00Z...WITH
GUSTY NORTH WINDS OCCURRING IN ITS WAKE. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY. STILL
THINK THAT RAIN AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT WITH STRATUS DEVELOPING AS WELL OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
MAINLY AFTER 04Z. IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CONFINED ALONG THE
CHEYENNE RIDGE WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD
ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE MID MONDAY MORNING BUT
NOT CONFIDENT CIGS WILL BECOME VFR...EXCEPT FOR KAIA AND KCDR.
LIKELY WILL SEE SCT-BKN MVFR CIGS PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND T-STORMS RETURNING MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION.  A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
 MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE 40
PERCENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...ZF




000
FXUS63 KUNR 052331
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
531 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM NORTHEAST ND
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST SD...AND INTO CENTRAL WY. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT IS LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL SD.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA...WITH
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ONE SHORTWAVE HAS EXITED
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...WHILE THE NEXT WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS
EASTERN WY INTO WESTERN SD NOW. KUDX RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER EASTERN WY INTO FAR
WESTERN SD...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FURTHER EAST TOWARD
NORTH CENTRAL SD. SKIES RANGE FROM MOSTLY SUNNY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
SD TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD. A FAIRLY
WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA RIGHT NOW...RANGING FROM 60S
OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY TO THE LOWER 90S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
WINDS ARE BREEZY FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS AT LEAST EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. CLOUDS AND
SOMEWHAT FASTER MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN SD TODAY
HAS KEPT ATMOSPHERE MORE STABLE AND CAPPED OVER THIS AREA. SOME
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT ON HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WX WILL BE ACROSS THE CWA...BUT AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF THE
FRONT... ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD...SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST
RISK INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH STRONG SHEAR NEAR AND JUST BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...WITH A LINE OF STORMS POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS EVENING...LIKELY TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...POSSIBLY TURNING INTO MORE OF A WIND TRHEAT LATER IN
THE EVENING. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE FRONT
OVER SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD LATE TODAY. HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD BE AN ISSUE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD...AS
ROTATING STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SLOWER MOVERS NEAR THE FRONT AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE 1.5 TO 2 INCHES THERE.

FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...INSTABILITY LOWERS...ESPECIALLY INTO
NORTHEAST WY...WHERE CLOUDS AND COOLER AIRMASS HAVE KEPT TEMPS DOWN.
THE SEVERE RISK OVER THE BLACK HILLS AREA AND MUCH OF FAR WESTERN SD
WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS...WITH THE FRONT HAVING PASSED BY.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY EARLY EVENING. OVERALL...
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND ON THE COOLER SIDE...WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSHOWER OVER THE BLACK HILLS IN THE AFTERNOON..
OTHERWISE...DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. RETURN FLOW ACROSS
NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD WILL BRING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TUE AFTN/NIGHT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION WED AND THU WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE. MODELS ARE STILL
DIVERGING GREATLY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HOW AN UPPER LOW
OVER CALIFORNIA WILL PHASE BACK INTO THE MAIN FLOW. THE WETTER
SOLUTION IS THE GFS WHICH HAS MOST OF THE ENERGY PUSHING WITHIN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF KEEPS
STRONG UPPER RIDGING CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHICH
KEEPS THE REMNANT LOW PUSHING NORTHEAST THRU THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY DRY UNDER THE RIDGE. AT
THIS TIME...KEPT THE CURRENT FORECAST GOING WITH A CHANCE FOR
STORMS THRU THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES AROUND AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 531 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NUMEROUS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
WY AND WESTERN SD THIS EVENING AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD
THIS EVENING...WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG IT. A FEW OF
THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. AREAS OF
MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH RAINFALL. MVFR/IFR
CIGS WILL BUILD INTO MUCH OF NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND
NORTHWEST SD OVERNIGHT AND LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS63 KUNR 052331
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
531 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM NORTHEAST ND
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST SD...AND INTO CENTRAL WY. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT IS LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL SD.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA...WITH
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ONE SHORTWAVE HAS EXITED
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...WHILE THE NEXT WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS
EASTERN WY INTO WESTERN SD NOW. KUDX RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER EASTERN WY INTO FAR
WESTERN SD...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FURTHER EAST TOWARD
NORTH CENTRAL SD. SKIES RANGE FROM MOSTLY SUNNY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
SD TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD. A FAIRLY
WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA RIGHT NOW...RANGING FROM 60S
OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY TO THE LOWER 90S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
WINDS ARE BREEZY FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS AT LEAST EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. CLOUDS AND
SOMEWHAT FASTER MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN SD TODAY
HAS KEPT ATMOSPHERE MORE STABLE AND CAPPED OVER THIS AREA. SOME
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT ON HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WX WILL BE ACROSS THE CWA...BUT AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF THE
FRONT... ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD...SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST
RISK INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH STRONG SHEAR NEAR AND JUST BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...WITH A LINE OF STORMS POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS EVENING...LIKELY TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...POSSIBLY TURNING INTO MORE OF A WIND TRHEAT LATER IN
THE EVENING. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE FRONT
OVER SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD LATE TODAY. HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD BE AN ISSUE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD...AS
ROTATING STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SLOWER MOVERS NEAR THE FRONT AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE 1.5 TO 2 INCHES THERE.

FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...INSTABILITY LOWERS...ESPECIALLY INTO
NORTHEAST WY...WHERE CLOUDS AND COOLER AIRMASS HAVE KEPT TEMPS DOWN.
THE SEVERE RISK OVER THE BLACK HILLS AREA AND MUCH OF FAR WESTERN SD
WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS...WITH THE FRONT HAVING PASSED BY.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY EARLY EVENING. OVERALL...
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND ON THE COOLER SIDE...WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSHOWER OVER THE BLACK HILLS IN THE AFTERNOON..
OTHERWISE...DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. RETURN FLOW ACROSS
NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD WILL BRING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TUE AFTN/NIGHT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION WED AND THU WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE. MODELS ARE STILL
DIVERGING GREATLY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HOW AN UPPER LOW
OVER CALIFORNIA WILL PHASE BACK INTO THE MAIN FLOW. THE WETTER
SOLUTION IS THE GFS WHICH HAS MOST OF THE ENERGY PUSHING WITHIN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF KEEPS
STRONG UPPER RIDGING CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHICH
KEEPS THE REMNANT LOW PUSHING NORTHEAST THRU THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY DRY UNDER THE RIDGE. AT
THIS TIME...KEPT THE CURRENT FORECAST GOING WITH A CHANCE FOR
STORMS THRU THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES AROUND AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 531 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NUMEROUS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
WY AND WESTERN SD THIS EVENING AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD
THIS EVENING...WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG IT. A FEW OF
THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. AREAS OF
MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH RAINFALL. MVFR/IFR
CIGS WILL BUILD INTO MUCH OF NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND
NORTHWEST SD OVERNIGHT AND LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...26



000
FXUS63 KUNR 052331
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
531 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM NORTHEAST ND
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST SD...AND INTO CENTRAL WY. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT IS LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL SD.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA...WITH
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ONE SHORTWAVE HAS EXITED
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...WHILE THE NEXT WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS
EASTERN WY INTO WESTERN SD NOW. KUDX RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER EASTERN WY INTO FAR
WESTERN SD...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FURTHER EAST TOWARD
NORTH CENTRAL SD. SKIES RANGE FROM MOSTLY SUNNY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
SD TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD. A FAIRLY
WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA RIGHT NOW...RANGING FROM 60S
OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY TO THE LOWER 90S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
WINDS ARE BREEZY FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS AT LEAST EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. CLOUDS AND
SOMEWHAT FASTER MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN SD TODAY
HAS KEPT ATMOSPHERE MORE STABLE AND CAPPED OVER THIS AREA. SOME
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT ON HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WX WILL BE ACROSS THE CWA...BUT AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF THE
FRONT... ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD...SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST
RISK INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH STRONG SHEAR NEAR AND JUST BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...WITH A LINE OF STORMS POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS EVENING...LIKELY TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...POSSIBLY TURNING INTO MORE OF A WIND TRHEAT LATER IN
THE EVENING. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE FRONT
OVER SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD LATE TODAY. HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD BE AN ISSUE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD...AS
ROTATING STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SLOWER MOVERS NEAR THE FRONT AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE 1.5 TO 2 INCHES THERE.

FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...INSTABILITY LOWERS...ESPECIALLY INTO
NORTHEAST WY...WHERE CLOUDS AND COOLER AIRMASS HAVE KEPT TEMPS DOWN.
THE SEVERE RISK OVER THE BLACK HILLS AREA AND MUCH OF FAR WESTERN SD
WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS...WITH THE FRONT HAVING PASSED BY.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY EARLY EVENING. OVERALL...
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND ON THE COOLER SIDE...WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSHOWER OVER THE BLACK HILLS IN THE AFTERNOON..
OTHERWISE...DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. RETURN FLOW ACROSS
NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD WILL BRING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TUE AFTN/NIGHT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION WED AND THU WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE. MODELS ARE STILL
DIVERGING GREATLY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HOW AN UPPER LOW
OVER CALIFORNIA WILL PHASE BACK INTO THE MAIN FLOW. THE WETTER
SOLUTION IS THE GFS WHICH HAS MOST OF THE ENERGY PUSHING WITHIN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF KEEPS
STRONG UPPER RIDGING CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHICH
KEEPS THE REMNANT LOW PUSHING NORTHEAST THRU THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY DRY UNDER THE RIDGE. AT
THIS TIME...KEPT THE CURRENT FORECAST GOING WITH A CHANCE FOR
STORMS THRU THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES AROUND AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 531 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NUMEROUS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
WY AND WESTERN SD THIS EVENING AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD
THIS EVENING...WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG IT. A FEW OF
THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. AREAS OF
MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH RAINFALL. MVFR/IFR
CIGS WILL BUILD INTO MUCH OF NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND
NORTHWEST SD OVERNIGHT AND LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...26



000
FXUS63 KUNR 052331
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
531 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM NORTHEAST ND
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST SD...AND INTO CENTRAL WY. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT IS LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL SD.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA...WITH
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ONE SHORTWAVE HAS EXITED
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...WHILE THE NEXT WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS
EASTERN WY INTO WESTERN SD NOW. KUDX RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER EASTERN WY INTO FAR
WESTERN SD...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FURTHER EAST TOWARD
NORTH CENTRAL SD. SKIES RANGE FROM MOSTLY SUNNY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
SD TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD. A FAIRLY
WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA RIGHT NOW...RANGING FROM 60S
OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY TO THE LOWER 90S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
WINDS ARE BREEZY FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS AT LEAST EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. CLOUDS AND
SOMEWHAT FASTER MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN SD TODAY
HAS KEPT ATMOSPHERE MORE STABLE AND CAPPED OVER THIS AREA. SOME
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT ON HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WX WILL BE ACROSS THE CWA...BUT AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF THE
FRONT... ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD...SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST
RISK INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH STRONG SHEAR NEAR AND JUST BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...WITH A LINE OF STORMS POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS EVENING...LIKELY TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...POSSIBLY TURNING INTO MORE OF A WIND TRHEAT LATER IN
THE EVENING. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE FRONT
OVER SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD LATE TODAY. HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD BE AN ISSUE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD...AS
ROTATING STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SLOWER MOVERS NEAR THE FRONT AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE 1.5 TO 2 INCHES THERE.

FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...INSTABILITY LOWERS...ESPECIALLY INTO
NORTHEAST WY...WHERE CLOUDS AND COOLER AIRMASS HAVE KEPT TEMPS DOWN.
THE SEVERE RISK OVER THE BLACK HILLS AREA AND MUCH OF FAR WESTERN SD
WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS...WITH THE FRONT HAVING PASSED BY.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY EARLY EVENING. OVERALL...
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND ON THE COOLER SIDE...WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSHOWER OVER THE BLACK HILLS IN THE AFTERNOON..
OTHERWISE...DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. RETURN FLOW ACROSS
NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD WILL BRING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TUE AFTN/NIGHT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION WED AND THU WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE. MODELS ARE STILL
DIVERGING GREATLY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HOW AN UPPER LOW
OVER CALIFORNIA WILL PHASE BACK INTO THE MAIN FLOW. THE WETTER
SOLUTION IS THE GFS WHICH HAS MOST OF THE ENERGY PUSHING WITHIN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF KEEPS
STRONG UPPER RIDGING CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHICH
KEEPS THE REMNANT LOW PUSHING NORTHEAST THRU THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY DRY UNDER THE RIDGE. AT
THIS TIME...KEPT THE CURRENT FORECAST GOING WITH A CHANCE FOR
STORMS THRU THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES AROUND AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 531 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NUMEROUS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
WY AND WESTERN SD THIS EVENING AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD
THIS EVENING...WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG IT. A FEW OF
THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. AREAS OF
MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH RAINFALL. MVFR/IFR
CIGS WILL BUILD INTO MUCH OF NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND
NORTHWEST SD OVERNIGHT AND LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS65 KCYS 052236
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONVECTION HAS REALLY INCREASED THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN OVER
ALBANY/LARAMIE COUNTIES AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
THIS DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOCATED
OVER WESTERN COLORADO/WYOMING.  THE STORMS OVER LARAMIE COUNTY HAVE
BEEN HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS WITH A FEW LOCATIONS SHOWING RADAR DERIVED
AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES.  PLENTIFUL MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CWA WITH PW VALUES ABOVE 1.25 INCHES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.  IT APPEARS THAT THE RAIN IS BECOMING MORE
STRATIFORM THOUGH OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH
SHOULD REDUCE THE HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.  THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG TO SVR
STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER MAINLY THE FAR PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD INSTABILITY (MLCAPES OF 2000-
2500 J/KG) IN NORTHERN SIOUX AND DAWES COUNTIES WITH BULK SHEAR OF
30 KTS.  THERE IS LESS INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH ALONG INTERSTATE 80.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM FOR ZONES ALONG
THE EASTERN CWA BORDER IN THE PANHANDLE.  SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY LATER TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT
PASSING OVER THE ENTIRE CWA.  WILL KEEP 50-70 PERCENT POPS GOING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT AGAIN THE RAIN SHOULD BE MORE
STRATIFORM IN NATURE.

MUCH COOLER ON MONDAY IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY BEFORE
TAPERING OFF.  INSTABILITY WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE.  CONVECTION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN ON
TUES ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING.  CAPE DOES INCREASE TO
AROUND 1000 J/KG ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE BY THE AFTN BUT DROPS OFF
QUICKLY ACROSS THE PLAINS. GET SOME WARMING ON TUES...HOWEVER TEMPS
WILL STILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UNSETTLED AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM THE 60S AND 70S ON WEDNESDAY BACK INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 90S FROM WEST TO EAST BY FRIDAY. A FEW PIECES
OF ENERGY WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY...AND WITH PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN COMBINING WILL
DECENT LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW...SHOULD SEE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR CONTINUES TO
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SO WILL KEEP MENTION FOR THAT POSSIBILITY IN THE
FORECAST. THURSDAY WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR...HOWEVER INCREASING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL DIMINISH COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS A BIT WITH THE BEST CHANCE EXPECTED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. CHANCES FOR STRONG STORMS WILL BE LESS AS WELL. MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING THE UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA
BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTER SOLUTION VS THE ECMWF ON
FRIDAY...BUT BOTH MODELS SHOW AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
THE MOUNTAINS. THE WETTER GFS CARRIES THE CONVECTION EAST IN THE
EVENING WHILE THE DRIER ECMWF KEEPS THE EASTERN ZONES DRY. WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRIDAY EVENING UNTIL MODELS BECOME
MORE CONSISTENT. FOR SATURDAY...BOTH MODELS BUILD A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE
ECMWF BUILDING THAT RIDGE UP INTO THE ROCKIES AS WELL. THE GFS IS
STARTING TO TREND THAT WAY...BUT STILL SWEEPS A BIT MORE MIDLEVEL
ENERGY ACROSS OUR AREA IN THE EVENING. MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR T-STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL
DIFFERENCES...BUT LEFT REMAINING AREAS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE CO/WY BORDER AT
18Z AND WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
COLD FRONT IS STEADILY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING AND
SOUTH DAKOTA...AND WILL INITIATE SHOWERS AND STORMS AS IT MOVES
SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE HEAVIER STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH STRATUS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT BRINGING THE
POSSIBILITY OF IFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES
OVERHEAD. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MID MORNING MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION.  A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
 MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE 40
PERCENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...ZF




000
FXUS65 KCYS 052236
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONVECTION HAS REALLY INCREASED THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN OVER
ALBANY/LARAMIE COUNTIES AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
THIS DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOCATED
OVER WESTERN COLORADO/WYOMING.  THE STORMS OVER LARAMIE COUNTY HAVE
BEEN HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS WITH A FEW LOCATIONS SHOWING RADAR DERIVED
AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES.  PLENTIFUL MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CWA WITH PW VALUES ABOVE 1.25 INCHES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.  IT APPEARS THAT THE RAIN IS BECOMING MORE
STRATIFORM THOUGH OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH
SHOULD REDUCE THE HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.  THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG TO SVR
STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER MAINLY THE FAR PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD INSTABILITY (MLCAPES OF 2000-
2500 J/KG) IN NORTHERN SIOUX AND DAWES COUNTIES WITH BULK SHEAR OF
30 KTS.  THERE IS LESS INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH ALONG INTERSTATE 80.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM FOR ZONES ALONG
THE EASTERN CWA BORDER IN THE PANHANDLE.  SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY LATER TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT
PASSING OVER THE ENTIRE CWA.  WILL KEEP 50-70 PERCENT POPS GOING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT AGAIN THE RAIN SHOULD BE MORE
STRATIFORM IN NATURE.

MUCH COOLER ON MONDAY IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY BEFORE
TAPERING OFF.  INSTABILITY WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE.  CONVECTION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN ON
TUES ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING.  CAPE DOES INCREASE TO
AROUND 1000 J/KG ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE BY THE AFTN BUT DROPS OFF
QUICKLY ACROSS THE PLAINS. GET SOME WARMING ON TUES...HOWEVER TEMPS
WILL STILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UNSETTLED AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM THE 60S AND 70S ON WEDNESDAY BACK INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 90S FROM WEST TO EAST BY FRIDAY. A FEW PIECES
OF ENERGY WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY...AND WITH PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN COMBINING WILL
DECENT LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW...SHOULD SEE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR CONTINUES TO
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SO WILL KEEP MENTION FOR THAT POSSIBILITY IN THE
FORECAST. THURSDAY WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR...HOWEVER INCREASING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL DIMINISH COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS A BIT WITH THE BEST CHANCE EXPECTED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. CHANCES FOR STRONG STORMS WILL BE LESS AS WELL. MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING THE UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA
BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTER SOLUTION VS THE ECMWF ON
FRIDAY...BUT BOTH MODELS SHOW AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
THE MOUNTAINS. THE WETTER GFS CARRIES THE CONVECTION EAST IN THE
EVENING WHILE THE DRIER ECMWF KEEPS THE EASTERN ZONES DRY. WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRIDAY EVENING UNTIL MODELS BECOME
MORE CONSISTENT. FOR SATURDAY...BOTH MODELS BUILD A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE
ECMWF BUILDING THAT RIDGE UP INTO THE ROCKIES AS WELL. THE GFS IS
STARTING TO TREND THAT WAY...BUT STILL SWEEPS A BIT MORE MIDLEVEL
ENERGY ACROSS OUR AREA IN THE EVENING. MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR T-STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL
DIFFERENCES...BUT LEFT REMAINING AREAS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE CO/WY BORDER AT
18Z AND WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
COLD FRONT IS STEADILY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING AND
SOUTH DAKOTA...AND WILL INITIATE SHOWERS AND STORMS AS IT MOVES
SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE HEAVIER STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH STRATUS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT BRINGING THE
POSSIBILITY OF IFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES
OVERHEAD. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MID MORNING MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION.  A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
 MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE 40
PERCENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...ZF



000
FXUS65 KCYS 052236
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONVECTION HAS REALLY INCREASED THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN OVER
ALBANY/LARAMIE COUNTIES AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
THIS DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOCATED
OVER WESTERN COLORADO/WYOMING.  THE STORMS OVER LARAMIE COUNTY HAVE
BEEN HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS WITH A FEW LOCATIONS SHOWING RADAR DERIVED
AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES.  PLENTIFUL MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CWA WITH PW VALUES ABOVE 1.25 INCHES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.  IT APPEARS THAT THE RAIN IS BECOMING MORE
STRATIFORM THOUGH OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH
SHOULD REDUCE THE HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.  THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG TO SVR
STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER MAINLY THE FAR PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD INSTABILITY (MLCAPES OF 2000-
2500 J/KG) IN NORTHERN SIOUX AND DAWES COUNTIES WITH BULK SHEAR OF
30 KTS.  THERE IS LESS INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH ALONG INTERSTATE 80.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM FOR ZONES ALONG
THE EASTERN CWA BORDER IN THE PANHANDLE.  SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY LATER TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT
PASSING OVER THE ENTIRE CWA.  WILL KEEP 50-70 PERCENT POPS GOING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT AGAIN THE RAIN SHOULD BE MORE
STRATIFORM IN NATURE.

MUCH COOLER ON MONDAY IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY BEFORE
TAPERING OFF.  INSTABILITY WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE.  CONVECTION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN ON
TUES ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING.  CAPE DOES INCREASE TO
AROUND 1000 J/KG ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE BY THE AFTN BUT DROPS OFF
QUICKLY ACROSS THE PLAINS. GET SOME WARMING ON TUES...HOWEVER TEMPS
WILL STILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UNSETTLED AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM THE 60S AND 70S ON WEDNESDAY BACK INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 90S FROM WEST TO EAST BY FRIDAY. A FEW PIECES
OF ENERGY WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY...AND WITH PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN COMBINING WILL
DECENT LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW...SHOULD SEE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR CONTINUES TO
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SO WILL KEEP MENTION FOR THAT POSSIBILITY IN THE
FORECAST. THURSDAY WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR...HOWEVER INCREASING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL DIMINISH COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS A BIT WITH THE BEST CHANCE EXPECTED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. CHANCES FOR STRONG STORMS WILL BE LESS AS WELL. MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING THE UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA
BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTER SOLUTION VS THE ECMWF ON
FRIDAY...BUT BOTH MODELS SHOW AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
THE MOUNTAINS. THE WETTER GFS CARRIES THE CONVECTION EAST IN THE
EVENING WHILE THE DRIER ECMWF KEEPS THE EASTERN ZONES DRY. WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRIDAY EVENING UNTIL MODELS BECOME
MORE CONSISTENT. FOR SATURDAY...BOTH MODELS BUILD A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE
ECMWF BUILDING THAT RIDGE UP INTO THE ROCKIES AS WELL. THE GFS IS
STARTING TO TREND THAT WAY...BUT STILL SWEEPS A BIT MORE MIDLEVEL
ENERGY ACROSS OUR AREA IN THE EVENING. MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR T-STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL
DIFFERENCES...BUT LEFT REMAINING AREAS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE CO/WY BORDER AT
18Z AND WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
COLD FRONT IS STEADILY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING AND
SOUTH DAKOTA...AND WILL INITIATE SHOWERS AND STORMS AS IT MOVES
SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE HEAVIER STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH STRATUS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT BRINGING THE
POSSIBILITY OF IFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES
OVERHEAD. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MID MORNING MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION.  A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
 MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE 40
PERCENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...ZF




000
FXUS65 KCYS 052236
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONVECTION HAS REALLY INCREASED THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN OVER
ALBANY/LARAMIE COUNTIES AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
THIS DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOCATED
OVER WESTERN COLORADO/WYOMING.  THE STORMS OVER LARAMIE COUNTY HAVE
BEEN HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS WITH A FEW LOCATIONS SHOWING RADAR DERIVED
AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES.  PLENTIFUL MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CWA WITH PW VALUES ABOVE 1.25 INCHES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.  IT APPEARS THAT THE RAIN IS BECOMING MORE
STRATIFORM THOUGH OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH
SHOULD REDUCE THE HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.  THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG TO SVR
STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER MAINLY THE FAR PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD INSTABILITY (MLCAPES OF 2000-
2500 J/KG) IN NORTHERN SIOUX AND DAWES COUNTIES WITH BULK SHEAR OF
30 KTS.  THERE IS LESS INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH ALONG INTERSTATE 80.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM FOR ZONES ALONG
THE EASTERN CWA BORDER IN THE PANHANDLE.  SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY LATER TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT
PASSING OVER THE ENTIRE CWA.  WILL KEEP 50-70 PERCENT POPS GOING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT AGAIN THE RAIN SHOULD BE MORE
STRATIFORM IN NATURE.

MUCH COOLER ON MONDAY IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY BEFORE
TAPERING OFF.  INSTABILITY WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE.  CONVECTION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN ON
TUES ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING.  CAPE DOES INCREASE TO
AROUND 1000 J/KG ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE BY THE AFTN BUT DROPS OFF
QUICKLY ACROSS THE PLAINS. GET SOME WARMING ON TUES...HOWEVER TEMPS
WILL STILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UNSETTLED AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM THE 60S AND 70S ON WEDNESDAY BACK INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 90S FROM WEST TO EAST BY FRIDAY. A FEW PIECES
OF ENERGY WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY...AND WITH PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN COMBINING WILL
DECENT LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW...SHOULD SEE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR CONTINUES TO
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SO WILL KEEP MENTION FOR THAT POSSIBILITY IN THE
FORECAST. THURSDAY WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR...HOWEVER INCREASING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL DIMINISH COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS A BIT WITH THE BEST CHANCE EXPECTED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. CHANCES FOR STRONG STORMS WILL BE LESS AS WELL. MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING THE UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA
BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTER SOLUTION VS THE ECMWF ON
FRIDAY...BUT BOTH MODELS SHOW AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
THE MOUNTAINS. THE WETTER GFS CARRIES THE CONVECTION EAST IN THE
EVENING WHILE THE DRIER ECMWF KEEPS THE EASTERN ZONES DRY. WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRIDAY EVENING UNTIL MODELS BECOME
MORE CONSISTENT. FOR SATURDAY...BOTH MODELS BUILD A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE
ECMWF BUILDING THAT RIDGE UP INTO THE ROCKIES AS WELL. THE GFS IS
STARTING TO TREND THAT WAY...BUT STILL SWEEPS A BIT MORE MIDLEVEL
ENERGY ACROSS OUR AREA IN THE EVENING. MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR T-STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL
DIFFERENCES...BUT LEFT REMAINING AREAS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE CO/WY BORDER AT
18Z AND WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
COLD FRONT IS STEADILY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING AND
SOUTH DAKOTA...AND WILL INITIATE SHOWERS AND STORMS AS IT MOVES
SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE HEAVIER STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH STRATUS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT BRINGING THE
POSSIBILITY OF IFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES
OVERHEAD. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MID MORNING MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION.  A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
 MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE 40
PERCENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...ZF



000
FXUS63 KUNR 052107
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
307 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM NORTHEAST ND
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST SD...AND INTO CENTRAL WY. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT IS LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL SD.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA...WITH
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ONE SHORTWAVE HAS EXITED
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...WHILE THE NEXT WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS
EASTERN WY INTO WESTERN SD NOW. KUDX RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER EASTERN WY INTO FAR
WESTERN SD...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FURTHER EAST TOWARD
NORTH CENTRAL SD. SKIES RANGE FROM MOSTLY SUNNY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
SD TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD. A FAIRLY
WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA RIGHT NOW...RANGING FROM 60S
OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY TO THE LOWER 90S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
WINDS ARE BREEZY FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS AT LEAST EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. CLOUDS AND
SOMEWHAT FASTER MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN SD TODAY
HAS KEPT ATMOSPHERE MORE STABLE AND CAPPED OVER THIS AREA. SOME
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT ON HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WX WILL BE ACROSS THE CWA...BUT AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF THE
FRONT... ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD...SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST
RISK INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH STRONG SHEAR NEAR AND JUST BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...WITH A LINE OF STORMS POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS EVENING...LIKELY TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...POSSIBLY TURNING INTO MORE OF A WIND TRHEAT LATER IN
THE EVENING. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE FRONT
OVER SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD LATE TODAY. HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD BE AN ISSUE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD...AS
ROTATING STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SLOWER MOVERS NEAR THE FRONT AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE 1.5 TO 2 INCHES THERE.

FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...INSTABILITY LOWERS...ESPECIALLY INTO
NORTHEAST WY...WHERE CLOUDS AND COOLER AIRMASS HAVE KEPT TEMPS DOWN.
THE SEVERE RISK OVER THE BLACK HILLS AREA AND MUCH OF FAR WESTERN SD
WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS...WITH THE FRONT HAVING PASSED BY.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY EARLY EVENING. OVERALL...
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND ON THE COOLER SIDE...WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSHOWER OVER THE BLACK HILLS IN THE AFTERNOON..
OTHERWISE...DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. RETURN FLOW ACROSS
NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD WILL BRING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TUE AFTN/NIGHT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION WED AND THU WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE. MODELS ARE STILL
DIVERGING GREATLY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HOW AN UPPER LOW
OVER CALIFORNIA WILL PHASE BACK INTO THE MAIN FLOW. THE WETTER
SOLUTION IS THE GFS WHICH HAS MOST OF THE ENERGY PUSHING WITHIN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF KEEPS
STRONG UPPER RIDGING CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHICH
KEEPS THE REMNANT LOW PUSHING NORTHEAST THRU THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY DRY UNDER THE RIDGE. AT
THIS TIME...KEPT THE CURRENT FORECAST GOING WITH A CHANCE FOR
STORMS THRU THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES AROUND AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE AREA TODAY. WITH
THIS FRONT...NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP AND SOME STORMS WILL
BE SEVERE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONG STORMS
AS WELL AS STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS. STORM ACTIVITY WILL END
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NW...LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...MLS



000
FXUS63 KUNR 052107
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
307 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM NORTHEAST ND
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST SD...AND INTO CENTRAL WY. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT IS LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL SD.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA...WITH
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ONE SHORTWAVE HAS EXITED
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...WHILE THE NEXT WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS
EASTERN WY INTO WESTERN SD NOW. KUDX RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER EASTERN WY INTO FAR
WESTERN SD...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FURTHER EAST TOWARD
NORTH CENTRAL SD. SKIES RANGE FROM MOSTLY SUNNY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
SD TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD. A FAIRLY
WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA RIGHT NOW...RANGING FROM 60S
OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY TO THE LOWER 90S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
WINDS ARE BREEZY FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS AT LEAST EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. CLOUDS AND
SOMEWHAT FASTER MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN SD TODAY
HAS KEPT ATMOSPHERE MORE STABLE AND CAPPED OVER THIS AREA. SOME
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT ON HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WX WILL BE ACROSS THE CWA...BUT AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF THE
FRONT... ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD...SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST
RISK INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH STRONG SHEAR NEAR AND JUST BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...WITH A LINE OF STORMS POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS EVENING...LIKELY TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...POSSIBLY TURNING INTO MORE OF A WIND TRHEAT LATER IN
THE EVENING. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE FRONT
OVER SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD LATE TODAY. HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD BE AN ISSUE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD...AS
ROTATING STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SLOWER MOVERS NEAR THE FRONT AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE 1.5 TO 2 INCHES THERE.

FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...INSTABILITY LOWERS...ESPECIALLY INTO
NORTHEAST WY...WHERE CLOUDS AND COOLER AIRMASS HAVE KEPT TEMPS DOWN.
THE SEVERE RISK OVER THE BLACK HILLS AREA AND MUCH OF FAR WESTERN SD
WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS...WITH THE FRONT HAVING PASSED BY.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY EARLY EVENING. OVERALL...
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND ON THE COOLER SIDE...WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSHOWER OVER THE BLACK HILLS IN THE AFTERNOON..
OTHERWISE...DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. RETURN FLOW ACROSS
NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD WILL BRING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TUE AFTN/NIGHT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION WED AND THU WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE. MODELS ARE STILL
DIVERGING GREATLY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HOW AN UPPER LOW
OVER CALIFORNIA WILL PHASE BACK INTO THE MAIN FLOW. THE WETTER
SOLUTION IS THE GFS WHICH HAS MOST OF THE ENERGY PUSHING WITHIN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF KEEPS
STRONG UPPER RIDGING CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHICH
KEEPS THE REMNANT LOW PUSHING NORTHEAST THRU THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY DRY UNDER THE RIDGE. AT
THIS TIME...KEPT THE CURRENT FORECAST GOING WITH A CHANCE FOR
STORMS THRU THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES AROUND AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE AREA TODAY. WITH
THIS FRONT...NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP AND SOME STORMS WILL
BE SEVERE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONG STORMS
AS WELL AS STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS. STORM ACTIVITY WILL END
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NW...LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...MLS




000
FXUS65 KRIW 052052
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
252 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

A WINTER LIKE STORM WILL INTENSIFY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
WYOMING THIS EVENING. HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTH WERE 30 TO 35 DEGREES
COLDER TODAY FROM YESTERDAY. THIS COOLING WILL CONTINUE. SHOWERS
HAVE BECOME WIDESPREAD WITH MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE
SOUTH BUT SOME HAVE ALSO OCCURRED IN THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS.
A MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
MUDDY GAP AREA AND THIS WILL CAUSE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF
PRECIPITATION RATES. FREEZING LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 9500 TO 9000
FEET AND SNOWFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER WILL
OCCUR ABOVE 9500 FEET TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY AS
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM LITTLE AND IN SOME AREAS WILL CONTINUE
TO FALL OR AT BEST REMAIN STEADY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
SOME AREAS AROUND THE WIND RIVER...ABSAROKA AND BIGHORN MOUNTAINS
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN...THIS ALSO
INCLUDES CASPER MOUNTAIN. THE NAM12 PUTS 3.5 INCHES OVER THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS. THANKFULLY RIVER
LEVELS HAVE FALLEN AS THE SNOW MELT RUNOFF IS ALL BUT OVER...BUT
SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

SIMILAR SOLUTIONS AGAIN OFFERED BY MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST MODELS
REGARDING OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN THIS
COMING WEEK AND WEEKEND. GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS BOTH DEPICT MID-
LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHWEST/SOUTHCENTRAL WYOMING EARLY TUESDAY.
SUSPECT THAT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND PRIOR TO ONSET OF
DEEPER CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE AT LEAST TRIED TO TREND IN
THAT DIRECTION WITH PRECIP FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING FROM 12Z-
18Z/TUESDAY. THIS CIRCULATION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ROCK SPRINGS TO CASPER.
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS LOOK BETTER FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...BUT WIND PROFILES REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN TYPICAL SUMMER THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK SHORTWAVE TO
OUR NORTH WILL NUDGE A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ZONES WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY COULD BE THE FOCUS
FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE BIG HORN BASIN
AND JOHNSON. BEST DYNAMICS WILL ALSO BE ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLAY. SPEED SHEAR PROFILES
WILL STILL REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE...BUT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE WITH NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW. OVERALL...
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY IN WYOMING WITH
CONVECTION BEING SCATTERED AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN. AN UPPER LOW WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE ONSHORE IN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY CAUSING THE UPPER FLOW
TO BACK MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST. THUS...IT LOOKS TO BE DRIER AND
WARMER FOR THURSDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
ACROSS THE WEST BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL
DRY ACROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING FRIDAY AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. FRIDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. WARMER MID-
LEVEL TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WIND AND DRYING
ATMOSPHERE COULD LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST. SATURDAY WILL BE JUST A BIT COOLER WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST WYOMING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS
THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS OFFERED
TODAY ARE QUICKER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS UPPER LOW.
THEREFORE...SATURDAY NOW APPEARS COOLER THAN WHAT IT DID WITH THE
MODEL RUNS FROM YESTERDAY. POTENTIALLY NEXT SUNDAY COULD BE A
PLEASANT DAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

PREVAILING MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY REDUCED IN RAIN
MIXED WITH SNOW ABOVE 9000 FEET...AND MIST WILL OBSCURE THE
MOUNTAINS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
WILL SEE AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS INCREASE IN COVERAGE BECOMING
PREVAILING BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z WITH RAIN AND MIST INCREASINGLY
REDUCING VISIBILITIES. ALL AIRPORTS SHOULD EXPERIENCE MVFR
CEILINGS WITH TEMPORARY IFR CEILINGS FROM 06Z TO 15Z. ABOVE 9000
FEET SNOW WILL LIKELY MIX WITH THE RAIN. THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY WITH STRONG OUTFLOW
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. OVERALL NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BLOW 15 TO 25
MPH ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER
02Z. THE BRISK WINDS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR...ESPECIALLY IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...AND SOME
SNOW ABOVE 9000 FEET IS IN STORE FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ABOVE
9500 FEET SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE.
VERY HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY WITH LOW MIXING HEIGHTS AND POOR
TO FAIR SMOKE DISPERSAL IS EXPECTED.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...C.BAKER
LONG TERM...CNJ
AVIATION...C.BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...C.BAKER



000
FXUS65 KRIW 052052
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
252 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

A WINTER LIKE STORM WILL INTENSIFY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
WYOMING THIS EVENING. HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTH WERE 30 TO 35 DEGREES
COLDER TODAY FROM YESTERDAY. THIS COOLING WILL CONTINUE. SHOWERS
HAVE BECOME WIDESPREAD WITH MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE
SOUTH BUT SOME HAVE ALSO OCCURRED IN THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS.
A MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
MUDDY GAP AREA AND THIS WILL CAUSE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF
PRECIPITATION RATES. FREEZING LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 9500 TO 9000
FEET AND SNOWFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER WILL
OCCUR ABOVE 9500 FEET TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY AS
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM LITTLE AND IN SOME AREAS WILL CONTINUE
TO FALL OR AT BEST REMAIN STEADY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
SOME AREAS AROUND THE WIND RIVER...ABSAROKA AND BIGHORN MOUNTAINS
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN...THIS ALSO
INCLUDES CASPER MOUNTAIN. THE NAM12 PUTS 3.5 INCHES OVER THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS. THANKFULLY RIVER
LEVELS HAVE FALLEN AS THE SNOW MELT RUNOFF IS ALL BUT OVER...BUT
SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

SIMILAR SOLUTIONS AGAIN OFFERED BY MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST MODELS
REGARDING OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN THIS
COMING WEEK AND WEEKEND. GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS BOTH DEPICT MID-
LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHWEST/SOUTHCENTRAL WYOMING EARLY TUESDAY.
SUSPECT THAT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND PRIOR TO ONSET OF
DEEPER CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE AT LEAST TRIED TO TREND IN
THAT DIRECTION WITH PRECIP FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING FROM 12Z-
18Z/TUESDAY. THIS CIRCULATION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ROCK SPRINGS TO CASPER.
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS LOOK BETTER FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...BUT WIND PROFILES REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN TYPICAL SUMMER THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK SHORTWAVE TO
OUR NORTH WILL NUDGE A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ZONES WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY COULD BE THE FOCUS
FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE BIG HORN BASIN
AND JOHNSON. BEST DYNAMICS WILL ALSO BE ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLAY. SPEED SHEAR PROFILES
WILL STILL REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE...BUT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE WITH NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW. OVERALL...
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY IN WYOMING WITH
CONVECTION BEING SCATTERED AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN. AN UPPER LOW WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE ONSHORE IN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY CAUSING THE UPPER FLOW
TO BACK MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST. THUS...IT LOOKS TO BE DRIER AND
WARMER FOR THURSDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
ACROSS THE WEST BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL
DRY ACROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING FRIDAY AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. FRIDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. WARMER MID-
LEVEL TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WIND AND DRYING
ATMOSPHERE COULD LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST. SATURDAY WILL BE JUST A BIT COOLER WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST WYOMING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS
THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS OFFERED
TODAY ARE QUICKER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS UPPER LOW.
THEREFORE...SATURDAY NOW APPEARS COOLER THAN WHAT IT DID WITH THE
MODEL RUNS FROM YESTERDAY. POTENTIALLY NEXT SUNDAY COULD BE A
PLEASANT DAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

PREVAILING MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY REDUCED IN RAIN
MIXED WITH SNOW ABOVE 9000 FEET...AND MIST WILL OBSCURE THE
MOUNTAINS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
WILL SEE AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS INCREASE IN COVERAGE BECOMING
PREVAILING BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z WITH RAIN AND MIST INCREASINGLY
REDUCING VISIBILITIES. ALL AIRPORTS SHOULD EXPERIENCE MVFR
CEILINGS WITH TEMPORARY IFR CEILINGS FROM 06Z TO 15Z. ABOVE 9000
FEET SNOW WILL LIKELY MIX WITH THE RAIN. THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY WITH STRONG OUTFLOW
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. OVERALL NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BLOW 15 TO 25
MPH ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER
02Z. THE BRISK WINDS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR...ESPECIALLY IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...AND SOME
SNOW ABOVE 9000 FEET IS IN STORE FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ABOVE
9500 FEET SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE.
VERY HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY WITH LOW MIXING HEIGHTS AND POOR
TO FAIR SMOKE DISPERSAL IS EXPECTED.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...C.BAKER
LONG TERM...CNJ
AVIATION...C.BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...C.BAKER



000
FXUS65 KRIW 052052
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
252 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

A WINTER LIKE STORM WILL INTENSIFY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
WYOMING THIS EVENING. HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTH WERE 30 TO 35 DEGREES
COLDER TODAY FROM YESTERDAY. THIS COOLING WILL CONTINUE. SHOWERS
HAVE BECOME WIDESPREAD WITH MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE
SOUTH BUT SOME HAVE ALSO OCCURRED IN THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS.
A MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
MUDDY GAP AREA AND THIS WILL CAUSE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF
PRECIPITATION RATES. FREEZING LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 9500 TO 9000
FEET AND SNOWFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER WILL
OCCUR ABOVE 9500 FEET TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY AS
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM LITTLE AND IN SOME AREAS WILL CONTINUE
TO FALL OR AT BEST REMAIN STEADY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
SOME AREAS AROUND THE WIND RIVER...ABSAROKA AND BIGHORN MOUNTAINS
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN...THIS ALSO
INCLUDES CASPER MOUNTAIN. THE NAM12 PUTS 3.5 INCHES OVER THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS. THANKFULLY RIVER
LEVELS HAVE FALLEN AS THE SNOW MELT RUNOFF IS ALL BUT OVER...BUT
SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

SIMILAR SOLUTIONS AGAIN OFFERED BY MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST MODELS
REGARDING OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN THIS
COMING WEEK AND WEEKEND. GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS BOTH DEPICT MID-
LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHWEST/SOUTHCENTRAL WYOMING EARLY TUESDAY.
SUSPECT THAT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND PRIOR TO ONSET OF
DEEPER CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE AT LEAST TRIED TO TREND IN
THAT DIRECTION WITH PRECIP FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING FROM 12Z-
18Z/TUESDAY. THIS CIRCULATION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ROCK SPRINGS TO CASPER.
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS LOOK BETTER FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...BUT WIND PROFILES REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN TYPICAL SUMMER THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK SHORTWAVE TO
OUR NORTH WILL NUDGE A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ZONES WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY COULD BE THE FOCUS
FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE BIG HORN BASIN
AND JOHNSON. BEST DYNAMICS WILL ALSO BE ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLAY. SPEED SHEAR PROFILES
WILL STILL REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE...BUT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE WITH NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW. OVERALL...
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY IN WYOMING WITH
CONVECTION BEING SCATTERED AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN. AN UPPER LOW WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE ONSHORE IN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY CAUSING THE UPPER FLOW
TO BACK MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST. THUS...IT LOOKS TO BE DRIER AND
WARMER FOR THURSDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
ACROSS THE WEST BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL
DRY ACROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING FRIDAY AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. FRIDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. WARMER MID-
LEVEL TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WIND AND DRYING
ATMOSPHERE COULD LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST. SATURDAY WILL BE JUST A BIT COOLER WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST WYOMING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS
THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS OFFERED
TODAY ARE QUICKER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS UPPER LOW.
THEREFORE...SATURDAY NOW APPEARS COOLER THAN WHAT IT DID WITH THE
MODEL RUNS FROM YESTERDAY. POTENTIALLY NEXT SUNDAY COULD BE A
PLEASANT DAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

PREVAILING MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY REDUCED IN RAIN
MIXED WITH SNOW ABOVE 9000 FEET...AND MIST WILL OBSCURE THE
MOUNTAINS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
WILL SEE AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS INCREASE IN COVERAGE BECOMING
PREVAILING BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z WITH RAIN AND MIST INCREASINGLY
REDUCING VISIBILITIES. ALL AIRPORTS SHOULD EXPERIENCE MVFR
CEILINGS WITH TEMPORARY IFR CEILINGS FROM 06Z TO 15Z. ABOVE 9000
FEET SNOW WILL LIKELY MIX WITH THE RAIN. THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY WITH STRONG OUTFLOW
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. OVERALL NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BLOW 15 TO 25
MPH ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER
02Z. THE BRISK WINDS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR...ESPECIALLY IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...AND SOME
SNOW ABOVE 9000 FEET IS IN STORE FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ABOVE
9500 FEET SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE.
VERY HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY WITH LOW MIXING HEIGHTS AND POOR
TO FAIR SMOKE DISPERSAL IS EXPECTED.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...C.BAKER
LONG TERM...CNJ
AVIATION...C.BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...C.BAKER



000
FXUS65 KRIW 052052
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
252 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

A WINTER LIKE STORM WILL INTENSIFY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
WYOMING THIS EVENING. HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTH WERE 30 TO 35 DEGREES
COLDER TODAY FROM YESTERDAY. THIS COOLING WILL CONTINUE. SHOWERS
HAVE BECOME WIDESPREAD WITH MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE
SOUTH BUT SOME HAVE ALSO OCCURRED IN THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS.
A MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
MUDDY GAP AREA AND THIS WILL CAUSE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF
PRECIPITATION RATES. FREEZING LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 9500 TO 9000
FEET AND SNOWFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER WILL
OCCUR ABOVE 9500 FEET TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY AS
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM LITTLE AND IN SOME AREAS WILL CONTINUE
TO FALL OR AT BEST REMAIN STEADY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
SOME AREAS AROUND THE WIND RIVER...ABSAROKA AND BIGHORN MOUNTAINS
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN...THIS ALSO
INCLUDES CASPER MOUNTAIN. THE NAM12 PUTS 3.5 INCHES OVER THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS. THANKFULLY RIVER
LEVELS HAVE FALLEN AS THE SNOW MELT RUNOFF IS ALL BUT OVER...BUT
SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

SIMILAR SOLUTIONS AGAIN OFFERED BY MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST MODELS
REGARDING OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN THIS
COMING WEEK AND WEEKEND. GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS BOTH DEPICT MID-
LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHWEST/SOUTHCENTRAL WYOMING EARLY TUESDAY.
SUSPECT THAT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND PRIOR TO ONSET OF
DEEPER CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE AT LEAST TRIED TO TREND IN
THAT DIRECTION WITH PRECIP FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING FROM 12Z-
18Z/TUESDAY. THIS CIRCULATION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ROCK SPRINGS TO CASPER.
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS LOOK BETTER FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...BUT WIND PROFILES REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN TYPICAL SUMMER THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK SHORTWAVE TO
OUR NORTH WILL NUDGE A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ZONES WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY COULD BE THE FOCUS
FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE BIG HORN BASIN
AND JOHNSON. BEST DYNAMICS WILL ALSO BE ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLAY. SPEED SHEAR PROFILES
WILL STILL REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE...BUT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE WITH NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW. OVERALL...
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY IN WYOMING WITH
CONVECTION BEING SCATTERED AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN. AN UPPER LOW WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE ONSHORE IN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY CAUSING THE UPPER FLOW
TO BACK MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST. THUS...IT LOOKS TO BE DRIER AND
WARMER FOR THURSDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
ACROSS THE WEST BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL
DRY ACROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING FRIDAY AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. FRIDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. WARMER MID-
LEVEL TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WIND AND DRYING
ATMOSPHERE COULD LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST. SATURDAY WILL BE JUST A BIT COOLER WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST WYOMING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS
THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS OFFERED
TODAY ARE QUICKER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS UPPER LOW.
THEREFORE...SATURDAY NOW APPEARS COOLER THAN WHAT IT DID WITH THE
MODEL RUNS FROM YESTERDAY. POTENTIALLY NEXT SUNDAY COULD BE A
PLEASANT DAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

PREVAILING MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY REDUCED IN RAIN
MIXED WITH SNOW ABOVE 9000 FEET...AND MIST WILL OBSCURE THE
MOUNTAINS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
WILL SEE AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS INCREASE IN COVERAGE BECOMING
PREVAILING BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z WITH RAIN AND MIST INCREASINGLY
REDUCING VISIBILITIES. ALL AIRPORTS SHOULD EXPERIENCE MVFR
CEILINGS WITH TEMPORARY IFR CEILINGS FROM 06Z TO 15Z. ABOVE 9000
FEET SNOW WILL LIKELY MIX WITH THE RAIN. THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY WITH STRONG OUTFLOW
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. OVERALL NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BLOW 15 TO 25
MPH ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER
02Z. THE BRISK WINDS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR...ESPECIALLY IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...AND SOME
SNOW ABOVE 9000 FEET IS IN STORE FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ABOVE
9500 FEET SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE.
VERY HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY WITH LOW MIXING HEIGHTS AND POOR
TO FAIR SMOKE DISPERSAL IS EXPECTED.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...C.BAKER
LONG TERM...CNJ
AVIATION...C.BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...C.BAKER



000
FXUS65 KCYS 051820
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1220 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ONE MORE VERY WARM DAY FOR FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND MUCH OF THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...BUT IT WILL BE COOLER INTO FAR NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN. BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND COLD
FRONT WILL BEING TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND SHOULD REACH THE COLORADO BORDER BY THIS EVENING.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHAT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. BASED ON THE LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ROBUST
CAPE PROFILES THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY FIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT STABILIZES THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. AT THE SAME TIME INCREASING PACIFIC MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SERVE TO SATURATE THE MID LEVELS...FURTHER
DECREASING THE OVERALL INSTABILITY. THEREFORE THINKING THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE LOW TODAY...ESPECIALLY WITH VERY
LITTLE SHEAR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW MARGINAL
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH SOME
STORMS BUT STORMS SHOULD MOVE FAST ENOUGH SUCH THAT THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL IN RELATIVE TERMS.

MONDAY WILL BE CLOUDY AND COOL WITH MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. A RAIN COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL REMAIN FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT PRECIPITATION.
DEPENDING AN HOW MUCH COOL AIR REMAINS...FORECAST TEMPERATURES MAY
BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC MONDAY. ONE CHANGE IN THE MODELS MONDAY NIGHT
IS THEY ARE HINTING AT A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING MONDAY NIGHT. DID NOT ADD POPS INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT BUT MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL LATE TUESDAY BUT COULD BRING THE NEXT SHOT OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW A CONTINUATION OF THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND ARE NOW
SHOWING THIS WET UNSETTLED PATTERN PERSISTING INTO LATE IN THE
WEEK AS WELL...DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH. THE
GFS AND GEM WERE INDICATING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS 24 HOURS AGO...BUT NOW SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW AROUND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND EVENTUALLY TOWARDS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL OF CONDITIONS TO DRY A BIT BY LATE THIS WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND...BUT GIVEN RECENT MODEL TRENDS OF UNDER ESTIMATING
BL MOISTURE...NOT VERY CONFIDENT WITH THIS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.
CURRENTLY...THE ECMWF IS CLOSEST TO A "DRIER" SOLUTION...BUT EVEN
THE ECMWF SHOWS SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD
ACROSS COLORADO AND WYOMING ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

MODELS SHOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD AND STALLING
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF COOL AIR ALOFT PUSHING INTO
THE AREA...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...AND FAVORABLE 0-6KM SHEAR
PROFILES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. KEPT POP BETWEEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
MODERATE TO HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY ALTHOUGH
IT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK.

GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AS MODELS ARE SHOWING COMPLETELY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. PREVIOUSLY...ALL MODELS WERE SHOWING AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SIMILAR TO
WHAT THE CURRENT 00Z ECMWF RUN IS DOING THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THE GFS AND MOST ENSEMBLE RUNS SHOW THE PACIFIC UPPER
LEVEL LOW STALLING ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING AS MORE UPPER LEVEL
JET ENERGY PUSHES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE GFS SHOWS THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...CENTERED ALONG THE MEXICO
BORDER. KEPT POP BETWEEN 10 TO 20 PERCENT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE CO/WY BORDER AT
18Z AND WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
COLD FRONT IS STEADILY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING AND
SOUTH DAKOTA...AND WILL INITIATE SHOWERS AND STORMS AS IT MOVES
SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE HEAVIER STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH STRATUS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT BRINGING THE
POSSIBILITY OF IFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES
OVERHEAD. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MID MORNING MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ONE MORE WARM DAY ACROSS THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A BIT COOLER INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING
AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES ALONG WITH DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MUCH COOLER FOR MONDAY
WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
WYOMING AND DRY ACROSS THE PLAINS.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EVERY DAY AND LIKELY INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS MANY NIGHTS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...SML




000
FXUS65 KCYS 051820
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1220 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ONE MORE VERY WARM DAY FOR FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND MUCH OF THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...BUT IT WILL BE COOLER INTO FAR NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN. BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND COLD
FRONT WILL BEING TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND SHOULD REACH THE COLORADO BORDER BY THIS EVENING.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHAT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. BASED ON THE LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ROBUST
CAPE PROFILES THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY FIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT STABILIZES THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. AT THE SAME TIME INCREASING PACIFIC MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SERVE TO SATURATE THE MID LEVELS...FURTHER
DECREASING THE OVERALL INSTABILITY. THEREFORE THINKING THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE LOW TODAY...ESPECIALLY WITH VERY
LITTLE SHEAR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW MARGINAL
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH SOME
STORMS BUT STORMS SHOULD MOVE FAST ENOUGH SUCH THAT THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL IN RELATIVE TERMS.

MONDAY WILL BE CLOUDY AND COOL WITH MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. A RAIN COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL REMAIN FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT PRECIPITATION.
DEPENDING AN HOW MUCH COOL AIR REMAINS...FORECAST TEMPERATURES MAY
BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC MONDAY. ONE CHANGE IN THE MODELS MONDAY NIGHT
IS THEY ARE HINTING AT A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING MONDAY NIGHT. DID NOT ADD POPS INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT BUT MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL LATE TUESDAY BUT COULD BRING THE NEXT SHOT OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW A CONTINUATION OF THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND ARE NOW
SHOWING THIS WET UNSETTLED PATTERN PERSISTING INTO LATE IN THE
WEEK AS WELL...DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH. THE
GFS AND GEM WERE INDICATING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS 24 HOURS AGO...BUT NOW SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW AROUND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND EVENTUALLY TOWARDS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL OF CONDITIONS TO DRY A BIT BY LATE THIS WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND...BUT GIVEN RECENT MODEL TRENDS OF UNDER ESTIMATING
BL MOISTURE...NOT VERY CONFIDENT WITH THIS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.
CURRENTLY...THE ECMWF IS CLOSEST TO A "DRIER" SOLUTION...BUT EVEN
THE ECMWF SHOWS SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD
ACROSS COLORADO AND WYOMING ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

MODELS SHOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD AND STALLING
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF COOL AIR ALOFT PUSHING INTO
THE AREA...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...AND FAVORABLE 0-6KM SHEAR
PROFILES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. KEPT POP BETWEEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
MODERATE TO HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY ALTHOUGH
IT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK.

GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AS MODELS ARE SHOWING COMPLETELY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. PREVIOUSLY...ALL MODELS WERE SHOWING AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SIMILAR TO
WHAT THE CURRENT 00Z ECMWF RUN IS DOING THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THE GFS AND MOST ENSEMBLE RUNS SHOW THE PACIFIC UPPER
LEVEL LOW STALLING ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING AS MORE UPPER LEVEL
JET ENERGY PUSHES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE GFS SHOWS THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...CENTERED ALONG THE MEXICO
BORDER. KEPT POP BETWEEN 10 TO 20 PERCENT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE CO/WY BORDER AT
18Z AND WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
COLD FRONT IS STEADILY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING AND
SOUTH DAKOTA...AND WILL INITIATE SHOWERS AND STORMS AS IT MOVES
SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE HEAVIER STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH STRATUS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT BRINGING THE
POSSIBILITY OF IFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES
OVERHEAD. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MID MORNING MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ONE MORE WARM DAY ACROSS THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A BIT COOLER INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING
AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES ALONG WITH DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MUCH COOLER FOR MONDAY
WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
WYOMING AND DRY ACROSS THE PLAINS.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EVERY DAY AND LIKELY INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS MANY NIGHTS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...SML




000
FXUS65 KCYS 051820
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1220 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ONE MORE VERY WARM DAY FOR FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND MUCH OF THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...BUT IT WILL BE COOLER INTO FAR NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN. BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND COLD
FRONT WILL BEING TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND SHOULD REACH THE COLORADO BORDER BY THIS EVENING.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHAT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. BASED ON THE LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ROBUST
CAPE PROFILES THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY FIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT STABILIZES THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. AT THE SAME TIME INCREASING PACIFIC MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SERVE TO SATURATE THE MID LEVELS...FURTHER
DECREASING THE OVERALL INSTABILITY. THEREFORE THINKING THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE LOW TODAY...ESPECIALLY WITH VERY
LITTLE SHEAR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW MARGINAL
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH SOME
STORMS BUT STORMS SHOULD MOVE FAST ENOUGH SUCH THAT THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL IN RELATIVE TERMS.

MONDAY WILL BE CLOUDY AND COOL WITH MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. A RAIN COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL REMAIN FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT PRECIPITATION.
DEPENDING AN HOW MUCH COOL AIR REMAINS...FORECAST TEMPERATURES MAY
BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC MONDAY. ONE CHANGE IN THE MODELS MONDAY NIGHT
IS THEY ARE HINTING AT A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING MONDAY NIGHT. DID NOT ADD POPS INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT BUT MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL LATE TUESDAY BUT COULD BRING THE NEXT SHOT OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW A CONTINUATION OF THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND ARE NOW
SHOWING THIS WET UNSETTLED PATTERN PERSISTING INTO LATE IN THE
WEEK AS WELL...DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH. THE
GFS AND GEM WERE INDICATING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS 24 HOURS AGO...BUT NOW SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW AROUND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND EVENTUALLY TOWARDS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL OF CONDITIONS TO DRY A BIT BY LATE THIS WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND...BUT GIVEN RECENT MODEL TRENDS OF UNDER ESTIMATING
BL MOISTURE...NOT VERY CONFIDENT WITH THIS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.
CURRENTLY...THE ECMWF IS CLOSEST TO A "DRIER" SOLUTION...BUT EVEN
THE ECMWF SHOWS SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD
ACROSS COLORADO AND WYOMING ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

MODELS SHOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD AND STALLING
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF COOL AIR ALOFT PUSHING INTO
THE AREA...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...AND FAVORABLE 0-6KM SHEAR
PROFILES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. KEPT POP BETWEEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
MODERATE TO HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY ALTHOUGH
IT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK.

GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AS MODELS ARE SHOWING COMPLETELY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. PREVIOUSLY...ALL MODELS WERE SHOWING AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SIMILAR TO
WHAT THE CURRENT 00Z ECMWF RUN IS DOING THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THE GFS AND MOST ENSEMBLE RUNS SHOW THE PACIFIC UPPER
LEVEL LOW STALLING ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING AS MORE UPPER LEVEL
JET ENERGY PUSHES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE GFS SHOWS THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...CENTERED ALONG THE MEXICO
BORDER. KEPT POP BETWEEN 10 TO 20 PERCENT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE CO/WY BORDER AT
18Z AND WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
COLD FRONT IS STEADILY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING AND
SOUTH DAKOTA...AND WILL INITIATE SHOWERS AND STORMS AS IT MOVES
SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE HEAVIER STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH STRATUS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT BRINGING THE
POSSIBILITY OF IFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES
OVERHEAD. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MID MORNING MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ONE MORE WARM DAY ACROSS THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A BIT COOLER INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING
AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES ALONG WITH DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MUCH COOLER FOR MONDAY
WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
WYOMING AND DRY ACROSS THE PLAINS.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EVERY DAY AND LIKELY INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS MANY NIGHTS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...SML




000
FXUS65 KCYS 051820
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1220 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ONE MORE VERY WARM DAY FOR FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND MUCH OF THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...BUT IT WILL BE COOLER INTO FAR NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN. BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND COLD
FRONT WILL BEING TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND SHOULD REACH THE COLORADO BORDER BY THIS EVENING.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHAT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. BASED ON THE LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ROBUST
CAPE PROFILES THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY FIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT STABILIZES THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. AT THE SAME TIME INCREASING PACIFIC MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SERVE TO SATURATE THE MID LEVELS...FURTHER
DECREASING THE OVERALL INSTABILITY. THEREFORE THINKING THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE LOW TODAY...ESPECIALLY WITH VERY
LITTLE SHEAR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW MARGINAL
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH SOME
STORMS BUT STORMS SHOULD MOVE FAST ENOUGH SUCH THAT THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL IN RELATIVE TERMS.

MONDAY WILL BE CLOUDY AND COOL WITH MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. A RAIN COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL REMAIN FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT PRECIPITATION.
DEPENDING AN HOW MUCH COOL AIR REMAINS...FORECAST TEMPERATURES MAY
BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC MONDAY. ONE CHANGE IN THE MODELS MONDAY NIGHT
IS THEY ARE HINTING AT A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING MONDAY NIGHT. DID NOT ADD POPS INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT BUT MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL LATE TUESDAY BUT COULD BRING THE NEXT SHOT OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW A CONTINUATION OF THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND ARE NOW
SHOWING THIS WET UNSETTLED PATTERN PERSISTING INTO LATE IN THE
WEEK AS WELL...DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH. THE
GFS AND GEM WERE INDICATING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS 24 HOURS AGO...BUT NOW SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW AROUND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND EVENTUALLY TOWARDS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL OF CONDITIONS TO DRY A BIT BY LATE THIS WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND...BUT GIVEN RECENT MODEL TRENDS OF UNDER ESTIMATING
BL MOISTURE...NOT VERY CONFIDENT WITH THIS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.
CURRENTLY...THE ECMWF IS CLOSEST TO A "DRIER" SOLUTION...BUT EVEN
THE ECMWF SHOWS SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD
ACROSS COLORADO AND WYOMING ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

MODELS SHOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD AND STALLING
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF COOL AIR ALOFT PUSHING INTO
THE AREA...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...AND FAVORABLE 0-6KM SHEAR
PROFILES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. KEPT POP BETWEEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
MODERATE TO HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY ALTHOUGH
IT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK.

GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AS MODELS ARE SHOWING COMPLETELY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. PREVIOUSLY...ALL MODELS WERE SHOWING AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SIMILAR TO
WHAT THE CURRENT 00Z ECMWF RUN IS DOING THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THE GFS AND MOST ENSEMBLE RUNS SHOW THE PACIFIC UPPER
LEVEL LOW STALLING ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING AS MORE UPPER LEVEL
JET ENERGY PUSHES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE GFS SHOWS THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...CENTERED ALONG THE MEXICO
BORDER. KEPT POP BETWEEN 10 TO 20 PERCENT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE CO/WY BORDER AT
18Z AND WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
COLD FRONT IS STEADILY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING AND
SOUTH DAKOTA...AND WILL INITIATE SHOWERS AND STORMS AS IT MOVES
SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE HEAVIER STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH STRATUS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT BRINGING THE
POSSIBILITY OF IFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES
OVERHEAD. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MID MORNING MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ONE MORE WARM DAY ACROSS THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A BIT COOLER INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING
AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES ALONG WITH DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MUCH COOLER FOR MONDAY
WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
WYOMING AND DRY ACROSS THE PLAINS.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EVERY DAY AND LIKELY INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS MANY NIGHTS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...SML




000
FXUS65 KRIW 051743
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1143 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

AFTER A VERY HOT STRETCH OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO...WE WILL FINALLY
BE SEEING SOME RELIEF. AND HOW DO YOU SPELL RELIEF? NO...NOT R-O-L-A-
I-D-E-S TO QUOTE THE OLD 1970S COMMERCIAL...BUT C-O-L-D F-R-O-N-T.
THE COLD FRONT IS NOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH MONTANA AND WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE COWBOY STATE TODAY...DROPPING HIGH TEMPERATURES BY
10 TO 20 DEGREES. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE FAVORED
AREAS WITH A NORTH TO SOUTH MOVING FRONT...LIKE POWELL AND
GREYBULL. IN WINTER...WE MAY BE TALKING ABOUT HIGH WINDS.
HOWEVER...IT IS JULY SO ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE SOME GUSTS TO 40 TO 45
MPH IN THE NORTHERN BIG HORN BASIN...HIGH WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
THE FRONT WILL ALSO TOUCH OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
QUESTION THE STORMS GET? THE SPC DOES HAVE EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA
IN A MARGINAL RISK. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME FACTORS AGAINST IT. ONE
IS THAT THE BEST JET DYNAMICS IN THE FORM OF THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF
A JET STREAK WILL REMAIN ACROSS MONTANA. THE BEST DYNAMICS WOULD BE
ACROSS JOHNSON AND NATRONA COUNTIES. IN ADDITION...CLOUDS SHOULD
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AND LIMIT INSTABILITY. THE MODELS ARE NOT
VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH THE INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AS WELL. SO FOR
NOW...WE WENT WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH SHOWERS. WE KEPT
THE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WIND WORDING HOWEVER. THE BIG THREAT
LOOKS TO BE HEAVY RAIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAY RISE AS HIGH
AS 1.50 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
WITH VALUES OF AN INCH OR HIGHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WE
THOUGHT ABOUT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH...BUT GIVEN THE RECENT DRY
PATTERN EXCEPT FOR THE SPOTTY AFTERNOON CONVECTION THE SOIL SHOULD
BE ABLE TO ABSORB A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE. THE HEAVIEST
CONVECTION WILL BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE WAS SHOVED
TO THE SOUTH.

WE WILL FLIP THE PATTERN FOR MONDAY. THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE FOUND. ON THIS DAY THE MOISTURE WILL SPED NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE LEAST COVERAGE ACROSS THE NATRONA AND
JOHNSON COUNTIES WHERE A MAINLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH LEAST
IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PROFILES. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK. HOW COOL DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER
THERE WILL BE. SOME MOS NUMBERS EVEN IN PLACES LIKE RIVERTON ARE IN
THE 60S. HOWEVER...WITH THE STRONG JULY SUN WE LEFT MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

CONVECTION THEN LOOKS TO BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD FOR TUESDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA. ONE AGAIN...WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL WE MAY BE LACKING SURFACE
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN THE
FORM OF THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A JET STREAK. SO WE WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS THAT DAY AS WELL. WE
ALSO AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF THE
FEISTY STORMS WOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE
ECMWF MODEL IS COLDER AND WETTER WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE GFS ON
THE 00Z RUNS. WILL KEEP FORECAST ABOUT THE SAME WITH THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. WILL TREND A LITTLE COOLER FOR WED
HIGHS BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE ECMWF MODEL WOULD SUGGEST. THURSDAY
LOOKS WARMER WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH A LITTLE MORE
COVERAGE IN THE WEST. MODELS DIFFER TONIGHT ON THE WEATHER FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE GFS TRACKS AN UPPER LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST INTO NEVADA THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN WEAKENS IT AS
IT PUSHES INTO UTAH FRIDAY...THEN INTO WY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THIS WOULD IMPLY SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE WEST AND
NORTH WITH LESS CHANCE CENTRAL AND SOUTH. THE SYSTEM EXITS WY
SATURDAY NIGHT LEAVING SUNDAY DRY. THE ECMWF MODEL CONTINUES TO
TAKE THE UPPER LOW WEST OF WY LEAVING MOST OF THE REGION DRY
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND VERY WARM TO HOT. THE GEM MODEL LEANS
TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION. NORMALLY IN SUMMER IF THE RIDGE BUILDS
ANY APPROACHING WEATHER WILL RIDE OVER THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE
AND NOT BARREL IN AND PUSH THE RIDGE OUT. SO WILL TREND THE
FORECAST THIS WAY...MOSTLY DRY EAST OF THE DIVIDE FRI THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH VERY ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY. ISOLATED STORMS OR
SHOWERS WEST OF THE DIVIDE FRI THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPS VERY
WARM TO HOT EAST OF THE DIVIDE. IN THE WEST...WARM FRI...TAD
COOLER SATURDAY...THEN WARMER NEXT SUNDAY.

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

PREVAILING MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY REDUCED IN RAIN
AND MIST WILL OBSCURE THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
WYOMING. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS
INCREASE IN COVERAGE BECOMING PREVAILING BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z
WITH RAIN AND MIST INCREASINGLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES.  ALL
AIRPORTS SHOULD EXPERIENCE MVFR CEILINGS WITH TEMPORARY IFR
CEILINGS FROM 06Z TO 12Z. ABOVE 9500 FEET SNOW WILL LIKELY MIX
WITH THE RAIN. THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
OVERALL NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BLOW 15 TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE NORTH
AND EAST SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 00Z. THE BRISK WINDS
WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...ESPECIALLY  IN AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.

.FIRE WEATHER...

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE TODAY AND USHER IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES...HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND A BETTER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH
AND EAST FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS...HAVE A
DECENT CHANCE OF SEEING A WETTING RAIN TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON SATURDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WELL.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...C.BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS




000
FXUS65 KRIW 051743
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1143 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

AFTER A VERY HOT STRETCH OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO...WE WILL FINALLY
BE SEEING SOME RELIEF. AND HOW DO YOU SPELL RELIEF? NO...NOT R-O-L-A-
I-D-E-S TO QUOTE THE OLD 1970S COMMERCIAL...BUT C-O-L-D F-R-O-N-T.
THE COLD FRONT IS NOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH MONTANA AND WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE COWBOY STATE TODAY...DROPPING HIGH TEMPERATURES BY
10 TO 20 DEGREES. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE FAVORED
AREAS WITH A NORTH TO SOUTH MOVING FRONT...LIKE POWELL AND
GREYBULL. IN WINTER...WE MAY BE TALKING ABOUT HIGH WINDS.
HOWEVER...IT IS JULY SO ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE SOME GUSTS TO 40 TO 45
MPH IN THE NORTHERN BIG HORN BASIN...HIGH WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
THE FRONT WILL ALSO TOUCH OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
QUESTION THE STORMS GET? THE SPC DOES HAVE EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA
IN A MARGINAL RISK. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME FACTORS AGAINST IT. ONE
IS THAT THE BEST JET DYNAMICS IN THE FORM OF THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF
A JET STREAK WILL REMAIN ACROSS MONTANA. THE BEST DYNAMICS WOULD BE
ACROSS JOHNSON AND NATRONA COUNTIES. IN ADDITION...CLOUDS SHOULD
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AND LIMIT INSTABILITY. THE MODELS ARE NOT
VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH THE INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AS WELL. SO FOR
NOW...WE WENT WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH SHOWERS. WE KEPT
THE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WIND WORDING HOWEVER. THE BIG THREAT
LOOKS TO BE HEAVY RAIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAY RISE AS HIGH
AS 1.50 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
WITH VALUES OF AN INCH OR HIGHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WE
THOUGHT ABOUT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH...BUT GIVEN THE RECENT DRY
PATTERN EXCEPT FOR THE SPOTTY AFTERNOON CONVECTION THE SOIL SHOULD
BE ABLE TO ABSORB A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE. THE HEAVIEST
CONVECTION WILL BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE WAS SHOVED
TO THE SOUTH.

WE WILL FLIP THE PATTERN FOR MONDAY. THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE FOUND. ON THIS DAY THE MOISTURE WILL SPED NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE LEAST COVERAGE ACROSS THE NATRONA AND
JOHNSON COUNTIES WHERE A MAINLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH LEAST
IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PROFILES. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK. HOW COOL DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER
THERE WILL BE. SOME MOS NUMBERS EVEN IN PLACES LIKE RIVERTON ARE IN
THE 60S. HOWEVER...WITH THE STRONG JULY SUN WE LEFT MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

CONVECTION THEN LOOKS TO BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD FOR TUESDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA. ONE AGAIN...WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL WE MAY BE LACKING SURFACE
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN THE
FORM OF THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A JET STREAK. SO WE WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS THAT DAY AS WELL. WE
ALSO AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF THE
FEISTY STORMS WOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE
ECMWF MODEL IS COLDER AND WETTER WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE GFS ON
THE 00Z RUNS. WILL KEEP FORECAST ABOUT THE SAME WITH THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. WILL TREND A LITTLE COOLER FOR WED
HIGHS BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE ECMWF MODEL WOULD SUGGEST. THURSDAY
LOOKS WARMER WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH A LITTLE MORE
COVERAGE IN THE WEST. MODELS DIFFER TONIGHT ON THE WEATHER FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE GFS TRACKS AN UPPER LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST INTO NEVADA THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN WEAKENS IT AS
IT PUSHES INTO UTAH FRIDAY...THEN INTO WY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THIS WOULD IMPLY SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE WEST AND
NORTH WITH LESS CHANCE CENTRAL AND SOUTH. THE SYSTEM EXITS WY
SATURDAY NIGHT LEAVING SUNDAY DRY. THE ECMWF MODEL CONTINUES TO
TAKE THE UPPER LOW WEST OF WY LEAVING MOST OF THE REGION DRY
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND VERY WARM TO HOT. THE GEM MODEL LEANS
TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION. NORMALLY IN SUMMER IF THE RIDGE BUILDS
ANY APPROACHING WEATHER WILL RIDE OVER THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE
AND NOT BARREL IN AND PUSH THE RIDGE OUT. SO WILL TREND THE
FORECAST THIS WAY...MOSTLY DRY EAST OF THE DIVIDE FRI THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH VERY ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY. ISOLATED STORMS OR
SHOWERS WEST OF THE DIVIDE FRI THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPS VERY
WARM TO HOT EAST OF THE DIVIDE. IN THE WEST...WARM FRI...TAD
COOLER SATURDAY...THEN WARMER NEXT SUNDAY.

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

PREVAILING MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY REDUCED IN RAIN
AND MIST WILL OBSCURE THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
WYOMING. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS
INCREASE IN COVERAGE BECOMING PREVAILING BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z
WITH RAIN AND MIST INCREASINGLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES.  ALL
AIRPORTS SHOULD EXPERIENCE MVFR CEILINGS WITH TEMPORARY IFR
CEILINGS FROM 06Z TO 12Z. ABOVE 9500 FEET SNOW WILL LIKELY MIX
WITH THE RAIN. THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
OVERALL NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BLOW 15 TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE NORTH
AND EAST SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 00Z. THE BRISK WINDS
WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...ESPECIALLY  IN AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.

.FIRE WEATHER...

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE TODAY AND USHER IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES...HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND A BETTER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH
AND EAST FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS...HAVE A
DECENT CHANCE OF SEEING A WETTING RAIN TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON SATURDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WELL.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...C.BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS




000
FXUS65 KRIW 051743
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1143 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

AFTER A VERY HOT STRETCH OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO...WE WILL FINALLY
BE SEEING SOME RELIEF. AND HOW DO YOU SPELL RELIEF? NO...NOT R-O-L-A-
I-D-E-S TO QUOTE THE OLD 1970S COMMERCIAL...BUT C-O-L-D F-R-O-N-T.
THE COLD FRONT IS NOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH MONTANA AND WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE COWBOY STATE TODAY...DROPPING HIGH TEMPERATURES BY
10 TO 20 DEGREES. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE FAVORED
AREAS WITH A NORTH TO SOUTH MOVING FRONT...LIKE POWELL AND
GREYBULL. IN WINTER...WE MAY BE TALKING ABOUT HIGH WINDS.
HOWEVER...IT IS JULY SO ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE SOME GUSTS TO 40 TO 45
MPH IN THE NORTHERN BIG HORN BASIN...HIGH WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
THE FRONT WILL ALSO TOUCH OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
QUESTION THE STORMS GET? THE SPC DOES HAVE EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA
IN A MARGINAL RISK. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME FACTORS AGAINST IT. ONE
IS THAT THE BEST JET DYNAMICS IN THE FORM OF THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF
A JET STREAK WILL REMAIN ACROSS MONTANA. THE BEST DYNAMICS WOULD BE
ACROSS JOHNSON AND NATRONA COUNTIES. IN ADDITION...CLOUDS SHOULD
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AND LIMIT INSTABILITY. THE MODELS ARE NOT
VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH THE INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AS WELL. SO FOR
NOW...WE WENT WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH SHOWERS. WE KEPT
THE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WIND WORDING HOWEVER. THE BIG THREAT
LOOKS TO BE HEAVY RAIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAY RISE AS HIGH
AS 1.50 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
WITH VALUES OF AN INCH OR HIGHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WE
THOUGHT ABOUT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH...BUT GIVEN THE RECENT DRY
PATTERN EXCEPT FOR THE SPOTTY AFTERNOON CONVECTION THE SOIL SHOULD
BE ABLE TO ABSORB A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE. THE HEAVIEST
CONVECTION WILL BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE WAS SHOVED
TO THE SOUTH.

WE WILL FLIP THE PATTERN FOR MONDAY. THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE FOUND. ON THIS DAY THE MOISTURE WILL SPED NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE LEAST COVERAGE ACROSS THE NATRONA AND
JOHNSON COUNTIES WHERE A MAINLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH LEAST
IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PROFILES. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK. HOW COOL DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER
THERE WILL BE. SOME MOS NUMBERS EVEN IN PLACES LIKE RIVERTON ARE IN
THE 60S. HOWEVER...WITH THE STRONG JULY SUN WE LEFT MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

CONVECTION THEN LOOKS TO BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD FOR TUESDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA. ONE AGAIN...WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL WE MAY BE LACKING SURFACE
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN THE
FORM OF THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A JET STREAK. SO WE WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS THAT DAY AS WELL. WE
ALSO AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF THE
FEISTY STORMS WOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE
ECMWF MODEL IS COLDER AND WETTER WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE GFS ON
THE 00Z RUNS. WILL KEEP FORECAST ABOUT THE SAME WITH THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. WILL TREND A LITTLE COOLER FOR WED
HIGHS BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE ECMWF MODEL WOULD SUGGEST. THURSDAY
LOOKS WARMER WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH A LITTLE MORE
COVERAGE IN THE WEST. MODELS DIFFER TONIGHT ON THE WEATHER FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE GFS TRACKS AN UPPER LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST INTO NEVADA THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN WEAKENS IT AS
IT PUSHES INTO UTAH FRIDAY...THEN INTO WY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THIS WOULD IMPLY SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE WEST AND
NORTH WITH LESS CHANCE CENTRAL AND SOUTH. THE SYSTEM EXITS WY
SATURDAY NIGHT LEAVING SUNDAY DRY. THE ECMWF MODEL CONTINUES TO
TAKE THE UPPER LOW WEST OF WY LEAVING MOST OF THE REGION DRY
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND VERY WARM TO HOT. THE GEM MODEL LEANS
TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION. NORMALLY IN SUMMER IF THE RIDGE BUILDS
ANY APPROACHING WEATHER WILL RIDE OVER THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE
AND NOT BARREL IN AND PUSH THE RIDGE OUT. SO WILL TREND THE
FORECAST THIS WAY...MOSTLY DRY EAST OF THE DIVIDE FRI THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH VERY ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY. ISOLATED STORMS OR
SHOWERS WEST OF THE DIVIDE FRI THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPS VERY
WARM TO HOT EAST OF THE DIVIDE. IN THE WEST...WARM FRI...TAD
COOLER SATURDAY...THEN WARMER NEXT SUNDAY.

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

PREVAILING MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY REDUCED IN RAIN
AND MIST WILL OBSCURE THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
WYOMING. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS
INCREASE IN COVERAGE BECOMING PREVAILING BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z
WITH RAIN AND MIST INCREASINGLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES.  ALL
AIRPORTS SHOULD EXPERIENCE MVFR CEILINGS WITH TEMPORARY IFR
CEILINGS FROM 06Z TO 12Z. ABOVE 9500 FEET SNOW WILL LIKELY MIX
WITH THE RAIN. THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
OVERALL NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BLOW 15 TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE NORTH
AND EAST SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 00Z. THE BRISK WINDS
WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...ESPECIALLY  IN AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.

.FIRE WEATHER...

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE TODAY AND USHER IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES...HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND A BETTER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH
AND EAST FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS...HAVE A
DECENT CHANCE OF SEEING A WETTING RAIN TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON SATURDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WELL.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...C.BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS




000
FXUS65 KRIW 051743
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1143 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

AFTER A VERY HOT STRETCH OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO...WE WILL FINALLY
BE SEEING SOME RELIEF. AND HOW DO YOU SPELL RELIEF? NO...NOT R-O-L-A-
I-D-E-S TO QUOTE THE OLD 1970S COMMERCIAL...BUT C-O-L-D F-R-O-N-T.
THE COLD FRONT IS NOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH MONTANA AND WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE COWBOY STATE TODAY...DROPPING HIGH TEMPERATURES BY
10 TO 20 DEGREES. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE FAVORED
AREAS WITH A NORTH TO SOUTH MOVING FRONT...LIKE POWELL AND
GREYBULL. IN WINTER...WE MAY BE TALKING ABOUT HIGH WINDS.
HOWEVER...IT IS JULY SO ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE SOME GUSTS TO 40 TO 45
MPH IN THE NORTHERN BIG HORN BASIN...HIGH WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
THE FRONT WILL ALSO TOUCH OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
QUESTION THE STORMS GET? THE SPC DOES HAVE EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA
IN A MARGINAL RISK. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME FACTORS AGAINST IT. ONE
IS THAT THE BEST JET DYNAMICS IN THE FORM OF THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF
A JET STREAK WILL REMAIN ACROSS MONTANA. THE BEST DYNAMICS WOULD BE
ACROSS JOHNSON AND NATRONA COUNTIES. IN ADDITION...CLOUDS SHOULD
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AND LIMIT INSTABILITY. THE MODELS ARE NOT
VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH THE INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AS WELL. SO FOR
NOW...WE WENT WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH SHOWERS. WE KEPT
THE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WIND WORDING HOWEVER. THE BIG THREAT
LOOKS TO BE HEAVY RAIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAY RISE AS HIGH
AS 1.50 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
WITH VALUES OF AN INCH OR HIGHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WE
THOUGHT ABOUT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH...BUT GIVEN THE RECENT DRY
PATTERN EXCEPT FOR THE SPOTTY AFTERNOON CONVECTION THE SOIL SHOULD
BE ABLE TO ABSORB A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE. THE HEAVIEST
CONVECTION WILL BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE WAS SHOVED
TO THE SOUTH.

WE WILL FLIP THE PATTERN FOR MONDAY. THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE FOUND. ON THIS DAY THE MOISTURE WILL SPED NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE LEAST COVERAGE ACROSS THE NATRONA AND
JOHNSON COUNTIES WHERE A MAINLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH LEAST
IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PROFILES. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK. HOW COOL DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER
THERE WILL BE. SOME MOS NUMBERS EVEN IN PLACES LIKE RIVERTON ARE IN
THE 60S. HOWEVER...WITH THE STRONG JULY SUN WE LEFT MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

CONVECTION THEN LOOKS TO BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD FOR TUESDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA. ONE AGAIN...WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL WE MAY BE LACKING SURFACE
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN THE
FORM OF THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A JET STREAK. SO WE WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS THAT DAY AS WELL. WE
ALSO AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF THE
FEISTY STORMS WOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE
ECMWF MODEL IS COLDER AND WETTER WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE GFS ON
THE 00Z RUNS. WILL KEEP FORECAST ABOUT THE SAME WITH THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. WILL TREND A LITTLE COOLER FOR WED
HIGHS BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE ECMWF MODEL WOULD SUGGEST. THURSDAY
LOOKS WARMER WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH A LITTLE MORE
COVERAGE IN THE WEST. MODELS DIFFER TONIGHT ON THE WEATHER FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE GFS TRACKS AN UPPER LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST INTO NEVADA THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN WEAKENS IT AS
IT PUSHES INTO UTAH FRIDAY...THEN INTO WY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THIS WOULD IMPLY SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE WEST AND
NORTH WITH LESS CHANCE CENTRAL AND SOUTH. THE SYSTEM EXITS WY
SATURDAY NIGHT LEAVING SUNDAY DRY. THE ECMWF MODEL CONTINUES TO
TAKE THE UPPER LOW WEST OF WY LEAVING MOST OF THE REGION DRY
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND VERY WARM TO HOT. THE GEM MODEL LEANS
TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION. NORMALLY IN SUMMER IF THE RIDGE BUILDS
ANY APPROACHING WEATHER WILL RIDE OVER THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE
AND NOT BARREL IN AND PUSH THE RIDGE OUT. SO WILL TREND THE
FORECAST THIS WAY...MOSTLY DRY EAST OF THE DIVIDE FRI THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH VERY ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY. ISOLATED STORMS OR
SHOWERS WEST OF THE DIVIDE FRI THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPS VERY
WARM TO HOT EAST OF THE DIVIDE. IN THE WEST...WARM FRI...TAD
COOLER SATURDAY...THEN WARMER NEXT SUNDAY.

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

PREVAILING MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY REDUCED IN RAIN
AND MIST WILL OBSCURE THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
WYOMING. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS
INCREASE IN COVERAGE BECOMING PREVAILING BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z
WITH RAIN AND MIST INCREASINGLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES.  ALL
AIRPORTS SHOULD EXPERIENCE MVFR CEILINGS WITH TEMPORARY IFR
CEILINGS FROM 06Z TO 12Z. ABOVE 9500 FEET SNOW WILL LIKELY MIX
WITH THE RAIN. THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
OVERALL NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BLOW 15 TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE NORTH
AND EAST SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 00Z. THE BRISK WINDS
WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...ESPECIALLY  IN AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.

.FIRE WEATHER...

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE TODAY AND USHER IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES...HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND A BETTER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH
AND EAST FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS...HAVE A
DECENT CHANCE OF SEEING A WETTING RAIN TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON SATURDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WELL.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...C.BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS




000
FXUS63 KUNR 051718
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1118 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN SD...WITH
COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL ND...THROUGH THE BLACK HILLS
AREA...AND INTO NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA...WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ONE SHORTWAVE IS MOVING ACROSS ND AND
NORTHERN SD THIS MORNING...WHILE THE NEXT WAVE OVER WY WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. KUDX RADAR SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST SD...WITH SOME
ACTIVITY STARTING TO DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST NEAR THE COLD
FRONT OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND NORTHEAST WY. SKIES RANGE FROM
MAINLY SUNNY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER FAR
NORTHEAST WY AND NORTHWEST SD. WITH THE FRONT AND VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPS RIGHT NOW RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S ACROSS NORTHWEST SD TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN SD.
WINDS ARE BREEZY FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

MINOR UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...
WIND,,,AND CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY AS IT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH AND
EAST...GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE 70S OVER MOST OF NORTHEAST WY
AND NORTHWEST SD TO THE LOWER 90S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. THE RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS WILL STILL BE GREATEST NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...GENERALLY FROM THE BLACK HILLS SOUTH AND EASTWARD...THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD COLD FRONT FROM NORTHEAST ND INTO
SOUTHWEST MT WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MT
NEAR THE FRONT AND TROUGH FROM THE LOW INTO CENTRAL NE. NOCTURNAL
LOW LEVEL JET PUSHING EAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MAIN THETA-E
ADVECTION OVER EASTERN SD/CENTRAL NE ALLOWING TSRA TO END OVER THE
CWA. STILL MIGHT BE AN ELEVATED STORM THROUGH 12Z OVER CENTRAL SD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...ATTENTION TURNS TO COLD FRONT/LOW. LATEST WATER
VAPOUR LOOP HAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA
AND THEN ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDERS OF MT/ND. LIFT UNDER RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF 120KT JET SUPPORTING ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS
NORTHEAST MT AT 0830Z...WHICH WILL HEAD INTO WESTERN ND THIS
MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CWA. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PUT OUT AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL PUSH COLD FRONT INTO NORTHWEST REACHES
OF CWA THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF JET WILL ENHANCE SURFACE LOW ALONG COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
SLIP TO I-90 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW NEAR KRAP. VERY
WARM/MOIST AIR AHEAD OF LOW WILL POOL ALONG BOUNDARY WITH 2-4KJ/KG
MLCAPE AND 25-50J/KG MLCIN. EFFECTIVE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 20M/S
EXPECTED ALONG BOUNDARY. AS CAP BREAKS ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...EXPECT
SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN STRENGTH OF
INSTABILITY...VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. TORNADO THREAT IS THERE
GIVEN NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BEHIND COLD FRONT...ELONGATING
HODOGRAPHS IF SUPERCELLS ARE POST FRONTAL...WHICH IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY GIVEN SETUP...BUT MLLCL/S FAIRLY HIGH EXCEPT FOR
FAVORED AREA JUST EAST/NORTHEAST OF SURFACE LOW. ACTIVITY WILL
SLOWLY GROW UPSCALE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AND
MORPH INTO A POTENTIALLY STRONG FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS OVER
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN SD WITH ENHANCED WIND THREAT. GIVEN
PARAMETERS...ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS ON TARGET EAST
OF RAPID CITY. COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF CWA TONIGHT WITH A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND IT THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN
FRONTAL POSITION.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CWA WITH DRIER CONDITIONS ON
TAP.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. RETURN FLOW ACROSS NE
WY AND FAR WRN SD WILL BRING BACK SOME CHANCES OF STORMS TUE
AFTN/NGHT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION WED AND THU WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR STORMS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE. MODELS ARE DIVERGING GREATLY FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH HOW AN UPPER LOW OVER CA WILL PHASE BACK INTO THE
MAIN FLOW. THE WETTER SOLUTION IS THE GFS WHICH HAS MOST OF THE
ENERGY PUSHING WITHIN THE SW FLOW INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THE ECMWF
KEEP STRONG UPPER RIDGING CENTERED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WHICH
KEEPS THE REMNANT LOW PUSHING NE THRU THE NRN ROCKIES...ALONG WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
ISSUED AT 1116 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE AREA TODAY. WITH
THIS FRONT...NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP WITH SOME SEVERE
STORMS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONG STORMS AS
WELL AS STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS. STORM ACTIVITY WILL END
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NW...LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...MLS



000
FXUS63 KUNR 051718
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1118 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN SD...WITH
COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL ND...THROUGH THE BLACK HILLS
AREA...AND INTO NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA...WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ONE SHORTWAVE IS MOVING ACROSS ND AND
NORTHERN SD THIS MORNING...WHILE THE NEXT WAVE OVER WY WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. KUDX RADAR SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST SD...WITH SOME
ACTIVITY STARTING TO DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST NEAR THE COLD
FRONT OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND NORTHEAST WY. SKIES RANGE FROM
MAINLY SUNNY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER FAR
NORTHEAST WY AND NORTHWEST SD. WITH THE FRONT AND VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPS RIGHT NOW RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S ACROSS NORTHWEST SD TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN SD.
WINDS ARE BREEZY FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

MINOR UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...
WIND,,,AND CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY AS IT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH AND
EAST...GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE 70S OVER MOST OF NORTHEAST WY
AND NORTHWEST SD TO THE LOWER 90S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. THE RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS WILL STILL BE GREATEST NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...GENERALLY FROM THE BLACK HILLS SOUTH AND EASTWARD...THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD COLD FRONT FROM NORTHEAST ND INTO
SOUTHWEST MT WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MT
NEAR THE FRONT AND TROUGH FROM THE LOW INTO CENTRAL NE. NOCTURNAL
LOW LEVEL JET PUSHING EAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MAIN THETA-E
ADVECTION OVER EASTERN SD/CENTRAL NE ALLOWING TSRA TO END OVER THE
CWA. STILL MIGHT BE AN ELEVATED STORM THROUGH 12Z OVER CENTRAL SD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...ATTENTION TURNS TO COLD FRONT/LOW. LATEST WATER
VAPOUR LOOP HAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA
AND THEN ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDERS OF MT/ND. LIFT UNDER RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF 120KT JET SUPPORTING ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS
NORTHEAST MT AT 0830Z...WHICH WILL HEAD INTO WESTERN ND THIS
MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CWA. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PUT OUT AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL PUSH COLD FRONT INTO NORTHWEST REACHES
OF CWA THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF JET WILL ENHANCE SURFACE LOW ALONG COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
SLIP TO I-90 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW NEAR KRAP. VERY
WARM/MOIST AIR AHEAD OF LOW WILL POOL ALONG BOUNDARY WITH 2-4KJ/KG
MLCAPE AND 25-50J/KG MLCIN. EFFECTIVE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 20M/S
EXPECTED ALONG BOUNDARY. AS CAP BREAKS ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...EXPECT
SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN STRENGTH OF
INSTABILITY...VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. TORNADO THREAT IS THERE
GIVEN NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BEHIND COLD FRONT...ELONGATING
HODOGRAPHS IF SUPERCELLS ARE POST FRONTAL...WHICH IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY GIVEN SETUP...BUT MLLCL/S FAIRLY HIGH EXCEPT FOR
FAVORED AREA JUST EAST/NORTHEAST OF SURFACE LOW. ACTIVITY WILL
SLOWLY GROW UPSCALE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AND
MORPH INTO A POTENTIALLY STRONG FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS OVER
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN SD WITH ENHANCED WIND THREAT. GIVEN
PARAMETERS...ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS ON TARGET EAST
OF RAPID CITY. COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF CWA TONIGHT WITH A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND IT THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN
FRONTAL POSITION.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CWA WITH DRIER CONDITIONS ON
TAP.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. RETURN FLOW ACROSS NE
WY AND FAR WRN SD WILL BRING BACK SOME CHANCES OF STORMS TUE
AFTN/NGHT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION WED AND THU WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR STORMS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE. MODELS ARE DIVERGING GREATLY FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH HOW AN UPPER LOW OVER CA WILL PHASE BACK INTO THE
MAIN FLOW. THE WETTER SOLUTION IS THE GFS WHICH HAS MOST OF THE
ENERGY PUSHING WITHIN THE SW FLOW INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THE ECMWF
KEEP STRONG UPPER RIDGING CENTERED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WHICH
KEEPS THE REMNANT LOW PUSHING NE THRU THE NRN ROCKIES...ALONG WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
ISSUED AT 1116 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE AREA TODAY. WITH
THIS FRONT...NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP WITH SOME SEVERE
STORMS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONG STORMS AS
WELL AS STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS. STORM ACTIVITY WILL END
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NW...LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...MLS




000
FXUS63 KUNR 051537
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
937 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN SD...WITH
COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL ND...THROUGH THE BLACK HILLS
AREA...AND INTO NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA...WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ONE SHORTWAVE IS MOVING ACROSS ND AND
NORTHERN SD THIS MORNING...WHILE THE NEXT WAVE OVER WY WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. KUDX RADAR SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST SD...WITH SOME
ACTIVITY STARTING TO DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST NEAR THE COLD
FRONT OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND NORTHEAST WY. SKIES RANGE FROM
MAINLY SUNNY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER FAR
NORTHEAST WY AND NORTHWEST SD. WITH THE FRONT AND VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPS RIGHT NOW RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S ACROSS NORTHWEST SD TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN SD.
WINDS ARE BREEZY FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

MINOR UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...
WIND,,,AND CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY AS IT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH AND
EAST...GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE 70S OVER MOST OF NORTHEAST WY
AND NORTHWEST SD TO THE LOWER 90S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. THE RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS WILL STILL BE GREATEST NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...GENERALLY FROM THE BLACK HILLS SOUTH AND EASTWARD...THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD COLD FRONT FROM NORTHEAST ND INTO
SOUTHWEST MT WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MT
NEAR THE FRONT AND TROUGH FROM THE LOW INTO CENTRAL NE. NOCTURNAL
LOW LEVEL JET PUSHING EAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MAIN THETA-E
ADVECTION OVER EASTERN SD/CENTRAL NE ALLOWING TSRA TO END OVER THE
CWA. STILL MIGHT BE AN ELEVATED STORM THROUGH 12Z OVER CENTRAL SD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...ATTENTION TURNS TO COLD FRONT/LOW. LATEST WATER
VAPOUR LOOP HAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA
AND THEN ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDERS OF MT/ND. LIFT UNDER RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF 120KT JET SUPPORTING ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS
NORTHEAST MT AT 0830Z...WHICH WILL HEAD INTO WESTERN ND THIS
MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CWA. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PUT OUT AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL PUSH COLD FRONT INTO NORTHWEST REACHES
OF CWA THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF JET WILL ENHANCE SURFACE LOW ALONG COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
SLIP TO I-90 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW NEAR KRAP. VERY
WARM/MOIST AIR AHEAD OF LOW WILL POOL ALONG BOUNDARY WITH 2-4KJ/KG
MLCAPE AND 25-50J/KG MLCIN. EFFECTIVE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 20M/S
EXPECTED ALONG BOUNDARY. AS CAP BREAKS ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...EXPECT
SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN STRENGTH OF
INSTABILITY...VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. TORNADO THREAT IS THERE
GIVEN NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BEHIND COLD FRONT...ELONGATING
HODOGRAPHS IF SUPERCELLS ARE POST FRONTAL...WHICH IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY GIVEN SETUP...BUT MLLCL/S FAIRLY HIGH EXCEPT FOR
FAVORED AREA JUST EAST/NORTHEAST OF SURFACE LOW. ACTIVITY WILL
SLOWLY GROW UPSCALE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AND
MORPH INTO A POTENTIALLY STRONG FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS OVER
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN SD WITH ENHANCED WIND THREAT. GIVEN
PARAMETERS...ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS ON TARGET EAST
OF RAPID CITY. COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF CWA TONIGHT WITH A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND IT THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN
FRONTAL POSITION.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CWA WITH DRIER CONDITIONS ON
TAP.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. RETURN FLOW ACROSS NE
WY AND FAR WRN SD WILL BRING BACK SOME CHANCES OF STORMS TUE
AFTN/NGHT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION WED AND THU WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR STORMS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE. MODELS ARE DIVERGING GREATLY FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH HOW AN UPPER LOW OVER CA WILL PHASE BACK INTO THE
MAIN FLOW. THE WETTER SOLUTION IS THE GFS WHICH HAS MOST OF THE
ENERGY PUSHING WITHIN THE SW FLOW INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THE ECMWF
KEEP STRONG UPPER RIDGING CENTERED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WHICH
KEEPS THE REMNANT LOW PUSHING NE THRU THE NRN ROCKIES...ALONG WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. WITH THIS
FRONT...NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SOME STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONG STORMS. STORM ACTIVITY WILL END THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NW...LEADING TO
VFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13




000
FXUS63 KUNR 051537
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
937 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN SD...WITH
COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL ND...THROUGH THE BLACK HILLS
AREA...AND INTO NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA...WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ONE SHORTWAVE IS MOVING ACROSS ND AND
NORTHERN SD THIS MORNING...WHILE THE NEXT WAVE OVER WY WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. KUDX RADAR SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST SD...WITH SOME
ACTIVITY STARTING TO DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST NEAR THE COLD
FRONT OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND NORTHEAST WY. SKIES RANGE FROM
MAINLY SUNNY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER FAR
NORTHEAST WY AND NORTHWEST SD. WITH THE FRONT AND VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPS RIGHT NOW RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S ACROSS NORTHWEST SD TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN SD.
WINDS ARE BREEZY FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

MINOR UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...
WIND,,,AND CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY AS IT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH AND
EAST...GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE 70S OVER MOST OF NORTHEAST WY
AND NORTHWEST SD TO THE LOWER 90S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. THE RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS WILL STILL BE GREATEST NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...GENERALLY FROM THE BLACK HILLS SOUTH AND EASTWARD...THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD COLD FRONT FROM NORTHEAST ND INTO
SOUTHWEST MT WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MT
NEAR THE FRONT AND TROUGH FROM THE LOW INTO CENTRAL NE. NOCTURNAL
LOW LEVEL JET PUSHING EAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MAIN THETA-E
ADVECTION OVER EASTERN SD/CENTRAL NE ALLOWING TSRA TO END OVER THE
CWA. STILL MIGHT BE AN ELEVATED STORM THROUGH 12Z OVER CENTRAL SD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...ATTENTION TURNS TO COLD FRONT/LOW. LATEST WATER
VAPOUR LOOP HAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA
AND THEN ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDERS OF MT/ND. LIFT UNDER RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF 120KT JET SUPPORTING ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS
NORTHEAST MT AT 0830Z...WHICH WILL HEAD INTO WESTERN ND THIS
MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CWA. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PUT OUT AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL PUSH COLD FRONT INTO NORTHWEST REACHES
OF CWA THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF JET WILL ENHANCE SURFACE LOW ALONG COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
SLIP TO I-90 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW NEAR KRAP. VERY
WARM/MOIST AIR AHEAD OF LOW WILL POOL ALONG BOUNDARY WITH 2-4KJ/KG
MLCAPE AND 25-50J/KG MLCIN. EFFECTIVE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 20M/S
EXPECTED ALONG BOUNDARY. AS CAP BREAKS ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...EXPECT
SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN STRENGTH OF
INSTABILITY...VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. TORNADO THREAT IS THERE
GIVEN NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BEHIND COLD FRONT...ELONGATING
HODOGRAPHS IF SUPERCELLS ARE POST FRONTAL...WHICH IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY GIVEN SETUP...BUT MLLCL/S FAIRLY HIGH EXCEPT FOR
FAVORED AREA JUST EAST/NORTHEAST OF SURFACE LOW. ACTIVITY WILL
SLOWLY GROW UPSCALE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AND
MORPH INTO A POTENTIALLY STRONG FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS OVER
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN SD WITH ENHANCED WIND THREAT. GIVEN
PARAMETERS...ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS ON TARGET EAST
OF RAPID CITY. COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF CWA TONIGHT WITH A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND IT THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN
FRONTAL POSITION.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CWA WITH DRIER CONDITIONS ON
TAP.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. RETURN FLOW ACROSS NE
WY AND FAR WRN SD WILL BRING BACK SOME CHANCES OF STORMS TUE
AFTN/NGHT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION WED AND THU WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR STORMS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE. MODELS ARE DIVERGING GREATLY FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH HOW AN UPPER LOW OVER CA WILL PHASE BACK INTO THE
MAIN FLOW. THE WETTER SOLUTION IS THE GFS WHICH HAS MOST OF THE
ENERGY PUSHING WITHIN THE SW FLOW INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THE ECMWF
KEEP STRONG UPPER RIDGING CENTERED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WHICH
KEEPS THE REMNANT LOW PUSHING NE THRU THE NRN ROCKIES...ALONG WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. WITH THIS
FRONT...NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SOME STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONG STORMS. STORM ACTIVITY WILL END THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NW...LEADING TO
VFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13




000
FXUS63 KUNR 051537
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
937 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN SD...WITH
COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL ND...THROUGH THE BLACK HILLS
AREA...AND INTO NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA...WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ONE SHORTWAVE IS MOVING ACROSS ND AND
NORTHERN SD THIS MORNING...WHILE THE NEXT WAVE OVER WY WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. KUDX RADAR SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST SD...WITH SOME
ACTIVITY STARTING TO DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST NEAR THE COLD
FRONT OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND NORTHEAST WY. SKIES RANGE FROM
MAINLY SUNNY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER FAR
NORTHEAST WY AND NORTHWEST SD. WITH THE FRONT AND VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPS RIGHT NOW RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S ACROSS NORTHWEST SD TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN SD.
WINDS ARE BREEZY FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

MINOR UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...
WIND,,,AND CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY AS IT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH AND
EAST...GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE 70S OVER MOST OF NORTHEAST WY
AND NORTHWEST SD TO THE LOWER 90S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. THE RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS WILL STILL BE GREATEST NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...GENERALLY FROM THE BLACK HILLS SOUTH AND EASTWARD...THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD COLD FRONT FROM NORTHEAST ND INTO
SOUTHWEST MT WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MT
NEAR THE FRONT AND TROUGH FROM THE LOW INTO CENTRAL NE. NOCTURNAL
LOW LEVEL JET PUSHING EAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MAIN THETA-E
ADVECTION OVER EASTERN SD/CENTRAL NE ALLOWING TSRA TO END OVER THE
CWA. STILL MIGHT BE AN ELEVATED STORM THROUGH 12Z OVER CENTRAL SD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...ATTENTION TURNS TO COLD FRONT/LOW. LATEST WATER
VAPOUR LOOP HAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA
AND THEN ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDERS OF MT/ND. LIFT UNDER RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF 120KT JET SUPPORTING ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS
NORTHEAST MT AT 0830Z...WHICH WILL HEAD INTO WESTERN ND THIS
MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CWA. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PUT OUT AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL PUSH COLD FRONT INTO NORTHWEST REACHES
OF CWA THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF JET WILL ENHANCE SURFACE LOW ALONG COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
SLIP TO I-90 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW NEAR KRAP. VERY
WARM/MOIST AIR AHEAD OF LOW WILL POOL ALONG BOUNDARY WITH 2-4KJ/KG
MLCAPE AND 25-50J/KG MLCIN. EFFECTIVE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 20M/S
EXPECTED ALONG BOUNDARY. AS CAP BREAKS ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...EXPECT
SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN STRENGTH OF
INSTABILITY...VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. TORNADO THREAT IS THERE
GIVEN NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BEHIND COLD FRONT...ELONGATING
HODOGRAPHS IF SUPERCELLS ARE POST FRONTAL...WHICH IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY GIVEN SETUP...BUT MLLCL/S FAIRLY HIGH EXCEPT FOR
FAVORED AREA JUST EAST/NORTHEAST OF SURFACE LOW. ACTIVITY WILL
SLOWLY GROW UPSCALE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AND
MORPH INTO A POTENTIALLY STRONG FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS OVER
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN SD WITH ENHANCED WIND THREAT. GIVEN
PARAMETERS...ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS ON TARGET EAST
OF RAPID CITY. COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF CWA TONIGHT WITH A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND IT THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN
FRONTAL POSITION.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CWA WITH DRIER CONDITIONS ON
TAP.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. RETURN FLOW ACROSS NE
WY AND FAR WRN SD WILL BRING BACK SOME CHANCES OF STORMS TUE
AFTN/NGHT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION WED AND THU WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR STORMS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE. MODELS ARE DIVERGING GREATLY FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH HOW AN UPPER LOW OVER CA WILL PHASE BACK INTO THE
MAIN FLOW. THE WETTER SOLUTION IS THE GFS WHICH HAS MOST OF THE
ENERGY PUSHING WITHIN THE SW FLOW INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THE ECMWF
KEEP STRONG UPPER RIDGING CENTERED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WHICH
KEEPS THE REMNANT LOW PUSHING NE THRU THE NRN ROCKIES...ALONG WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. WITH THIS
FRONT...NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SOME STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONG STORMS. STORM ACTIVITY WILL END THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NW...LEADING TO
VFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13




000
FXUS63 KUNR 051537
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
937 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN SD...WITH
COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL ND...THROUGH THE BLACK HILLS
AREA...AND INTO NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA...WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ONE SHORTWAVE IS MOVING ACROSS ND AND
NORTHERN SD THIS MORNING...WHILE THE NEXT WAVE OVER WY WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. KUDX RADAR SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST SD...WITH SOME
ACTIVITY STARTING TO DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST NEAR THE COLD
FRONT OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND NORTHEAST WY. SKIES RANGE FROM
MAINLY SUNNY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER FAR
NORTHEAST WY AND NORTHWEST SD. WITH THE FRONT AND VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPS RIGHT NOW RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S ACROSS NORTHWEST SD TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN SD.
WINDS ARE BREEZY FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

MINOR UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...
WIND,,,AND CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY AS IT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH AND
EAST...GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE 70S OVER MOST OF NORTHEAST WY
AND NORTHWEST SD TO THE LOWER 90S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. THE RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS WILL STILL BE GREATEST NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...GENERALLY FROM THE BLACK HILLS SOUTH AND EASTWARD...THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD COLD FRONT FROM NORTHEAST ND INTO
SOUTHWEST MT WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MT
NEAR THE FRONT AND TROUGH FROM THE LOW INTO CENTRAL NE. NOCTURNAL
LOW LEVEL JET PUSHING EAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MAIN THETA-E
ADVECTION OVER EASTERN SD/CENTRAL NE ALLOWING TSRA TO END OVER THE
CWA. STILL MIGHT BE AN ELEVATED STORM THROUGH 12Z OVER CENTRAL SD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...ATTENTION TURNS TO COLD FRONT/LOW. LATEST WATER
VAPOUR LOOP HAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA
AND THEN ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDERS OF MT/ND. LIFT UNDER RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF 120KT JET SUPPORTING ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS
NORTHEAST MT AT 0830Z...WHICH WILL HEAD INTO WESTERN ND THIS
MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CWA. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PUT OUT AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL PUSH COLD FRONT INTO NORTHWEST REACHES
OF CWA THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF JET WILL ENHANCE SURFACE LOW ALONG COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
SLIP TO I-90 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW NEAR KRAP. VERY
WARM/MOIST AIR AHEAD OF LOW WILL POOL ALONG BOUNDARY WITH 2-4KJ/KG
MLCAPE AND 25-50J/KG MLCIN. EFFECTIVE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 20M/S
EXPECTED ALONG BOUNDARY. AS CAP BREAKS ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...EXPECT
SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN STRENGTH OF
INSTABILITY...VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. TORNADO THREAT IS THERE
GIVEN NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BEHIND COLD FRONT...ELONGATING
HODOGRAPHS IF SUPERCELLS ARE POST FRONTAL...WHICH IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY GIVEN SETUP...BUT MLLCL/S FAIRLY HIGH EXCEPT FOR
FAVORED AREA JUST EAST/NORTHEAST OF SURFACE LOW. ACTIVITY WILL
SLOWLY GROW UPSCALE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AND
MORPH INTO A POTENTIALLY STRONG FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS OVER
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN SD WITH ENHANCED WIND THREAT. GIVEN
PARAMETERS...ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS ON TARGET EAST
OF RAPID CITY. COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF CWA TONIGHT WITH A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND IT THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN
FRONTAL POSITION.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CWA WITH DRIER CONDITIONS ON
TAP.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. RETURN FLOW ACROSS NE
WY AND FAR WRN SD WILL BRING BACK SOME CHANCES OF STORMS TUE
AFTN/NGHT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION WED AND THU WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR STORMS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE. MODELS ARE DIVERGING GREATLY FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH HOW AN UPPER LOW OVER CA WILL PHASE BACK INTO THE
MAIN FLOW. THE WETTER SOLUTION IS THE GFS WHICH HAS MOST OF THE
ENERGY PUSHING WITHIN THE SW FLOW INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THE ECMWF
KEEP STRONG UPPER RIDGING CENTERED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WHICH
KEEPS THE REMNANT LOW PUSHING NE THRU THE NRN ROCKIES...ALONG WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. WITH THIS
FRONT...NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SOME STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONG STORMS. STORM ACTIVITY WILL END THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NW...LEADING TO
VFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13




000
FXUS63 KUNR 051122
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
522 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD COLD FRONT FROM NORTHEAST ND INTO
SOUTHWEST MT WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MT
NEAR THE FRONT AND TROUGH FROM THE LOW INTO CENTRAL NE. NOCTURNAL
LOW LEVEL JET PUSHING EAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MAIN THETA-E
ADVECTION OVER EASTERN SD/CENTRAL NE ALLOWING TSRA TO END OVER THE
CWA. STILL MIGHT BE AN ELEVATED STORM THROUGH 12Z OVER CENTRAL SD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...ATTENTION TURNS TO COLD FRONT/LOW. LATEST WATER
VAPOUR LOOP HAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA
AND THEN ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDERS OF MT/ND. LIFT UNDER RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF 120KT JET SUPPORTING ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS
NORTHEAST MT AT 0830Z...WHICH WILL HEAD INTO WESTERN ND THIS
MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CWA. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PUT OUT AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL PUSH COLD FRONT INTO NORTHWEST REACHES
OF CWA THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF JET WILL ENHANCE SURFACE LOW ALONG COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
SLIP TO I-90 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW NEAR KRAP. VERY
WARM/MOIST AIR AHEAD OF LOW WILL POOL ALONG BOUNDARY WITH 2-4KJ/KG
MLCAPE AND 25-50J/KG MLCIN. EFFECTIVE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 20M/S
EXPECTED ALONG BOUNDARY. AS CAP BREAKS ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...EXPECT
SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN STRENGTH OF
INSTABILITY...VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. TORNADO THREAT IS THERE
GIVEN NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BEHIND COLD FRONT...ELONGATING
HODOGRAPHS IF SUPERCELLS ARE POST FRONTAL...WHICH IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY GIVEN SETUP...BUT MLLCL/S FAIRLY HIGH EXCEPT FOR
FAVORED AREA JUST EAST/NORTHEAST OF SURFACE LOW. ACTIVITY WILL
SLOWLY GROW UPSCALE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AND
MORPH INTO A POTENTIALLY STRONG FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS OVER
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN SD WITH ENHANCED WIND THREAT. GIVEN
PARAMETERS...ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS ON TARGET EAST
OF RAPID CITY. COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF CWA TONIGHT WITH A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND IT THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN
FRONTAL POSITION.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CWA WITH DRIER CONDITIONS ON
TAP.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. RETURN FLOW ACROSS NE
WY AND FAR WRN SD WILL BRING BACK SOME CHANCES OF STORMS TUE
AFTN/NGHT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION WED AND THU WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR STORMS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE. MODELS ARE DIVERGING GREATLY FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH HOW AN UPPER LOW OVER CA WILL PHASE BACK INTO THE
MAIN FLOW. THE WETTER SOLUTION IS THE GFS WHICH HAS MOST OF THE
ENERGY PUSHING WITHIN THE SW FLOW INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THE ECMWF
KEEP STRONG UPPER RIDGING CENTERED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WHICH
KEEPS THE REMNANT LOW PUSHING NE THRU THE NRN ROCKIES...ALONG WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. WITH THIS
FRONT...NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SOME STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONG STORMS. STORM ACTIVITY WILL END THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NW...LEADING TO
VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13



000
FXUS65 KCYS 051003
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
403 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ONE MORE VERY WARM DAY FOR FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND MUCH OF THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...BUT IT WILL BE COOLER INTO FAR NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN. BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND COLD
FRONT WILL BEING TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND SHOULD REACH THE COLORADO BORDER BY THIS EVENING.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHAT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. BASED ON THE LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ROBUST
CAPE PROFILES THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY FIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT STABILIZES THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. AT THE SAME TIME INCREASING PACIFIC MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SERVE TO SATURATE THE MID LEVELS...FURTHER
DECREASING THE OVERALL INSTABILITY. THEREFORE THINKING THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE LOW TODAY...ESPECIALLY WITH VERY
LITTLE SHEAR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW MARGINAL
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH SOME
STORMS BUT STORMS SHOULD MOVE FAST ENOUGH SUCH THAT THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL IN RELATIVE TERMS.

MONDAY WILL BE CLOUDY AND COOL WITH MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. A RAIN COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL REMAIN FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT PRECIPITATION.
DEPENDING AN HOW MUCH COOL AIR REMAINS...FORECAST TEMPERATURES MAY
BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC MONDAY. ONE CHANGE IN THE MODELS MONDAY NIGHT
IS THEY ARE HINTING AT A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING MONDAY NIGHT. DID NOT ADD POPS INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT BUT MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL LATE TUESDAY BUT COULD BRING THE NEXT SHOT OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW A CONTINUATION OF THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND ARE NOW
SHOWING THIS WET UNSETTLED PATTERN PERSISTING INTO LATE IN THE
WEEK AS WELL...DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH. THE
GFS AND GEM WERE INDICATING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS 24 HOURS AGO...BUT NOW SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW AROUND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND EVENTUALLY TOWARDS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL OF CONDITIONS TO DRY A BIT BY LATE THIS WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND...BUT GIVEN RECENT MODEL TRENDS OF UNDER ESTIMATING
BL MOISTURE...NOT VERY CONFIDENT WITH THIS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.
CURRENTLY...THE ECMWF IS CLOSEST TO A "DRIER" SOLUTION...BUT EVEN
THE ECMWF SHOWS SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD
ACROSS COLORADO AND WYOMING ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

MODELS SHOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD AND STALLING
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF COOL AIR ALOFT PUSHING INTO
THE AREA...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...AND FAVORABLE 0-6KM SHEAR
PROFILES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. KEPT POP BETWEEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
MODERATE TO HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY ALTHOUGH
IT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK.

GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AS MODELS ARE SHOWING COMPLETELY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. PREVIOUSLY...ALL MODELS WERE SHOWING AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SIMILAR TO
WHAT THE CURRENT 00Z ECMWF RUN IS DOING THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THE GFS AND MOST ENSEMBLE RUNS SHOW THE PACIFIC UPPER
LEVEL LOW STALLING ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING AS MORE UPPER LEVEL
JET ENERGY PUSHES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE GFS SHOWS THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...CENTERED ALONG THE MEXICO
BORDER. KEPT POP BETWEEN 10 TO 20 PERCENT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER POSSIBLE NEAR KLAR AND KAIA.
OTHERWISE...A BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FROM 11Z TO
18Z TODAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD ACROSS WYOMING AND NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING
IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS BY 20Z...AND EVENTUALLY WESTERN NEBRASKA BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. MVFR VIS ARE EXPECTED FROM KRWL TO KCYS IN THE HEAVIER
RAIN SHOWERS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH MVFR TO NEAR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ONE MORE WARM DAY ACROSS THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A BIT COOLER INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING
AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES ALONG WITH DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MUCH COOLER FOR MONDAY
WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
WYOMING AND DRY ACROSS THE PLAINS.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EVERY DAY AND LIKELY INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS MANY NIGHTS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...SML



000
FXUS65 KCYS 051003
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
403 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ONE MORE VERY WARM DAY FOR FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND MUCH OF THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...BUT IT WILL BE COOLER INTO FAR NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN. BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND COLD
FRONT WILL BEING TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND SHOULD REACH THE COLORADO BORDER BY THIS EVENING.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHAT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. BASED ON THE LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ROBUST
CAPE PROFILES THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY FIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT STABILIZES THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. AT THE SAME TIME INCREASING PACIFIC MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SERVE TO SATURATE THE MID LEVELS...FURTHER
DECREASING THE OVERALL INSTABILITY. THEREFORE THINKING THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE LOW TODAY...ESPECIALLY WITH VERY
LITTLE SHEAR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW MARGINAL
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH SOME
STORMS BUT STORMS SHOULD MOVE FAST ENOUGH SUCH THAT THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL IN RELATIVE TERMS.

MONDAY WILL BE CLOUDY AND COOL WITH MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. A RAIN COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL REMAIN FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT PRECIPITATION.
DEPENDING AN HOW MUCH COOL AIR REMAINS...FORECAST TEMPERATURES MAY
BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC MONDAY. ONE CHANGE IN THE MODELS MONDAY NIGHT
IS THEY ARE HINTING AT A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING MONDAY NIGHT. DID NOT ADD POPS INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT BUT MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL LATE TUESDAY BUT COULD BRING THE NEXT SHOT OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW A CONTINUATION OF THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND ARE NOW
SHOWING THIS WET UNSETTLED PATTERN PERSISTING INTO LATE IN THE
WEEK AS WELL...DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH. THE
GFS AND GEM WERE INDICATING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS 24 HOURS AGO...BUT NOW SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW AROUND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND EVENTUALLY TOWARDS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL OF CONDITIONS TO DRY A BIT BY LATE THIS WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND...BUT GIVEN RECENT MODEL TRENDS OF UNDER ESTIMATING
BL MOISTURE...NOT VERY CONFIDENT WITH THIS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.
CURRENTLY...THE ECMWF IS CLOSEST TO A "DRIER" SOLUTION...BUT EVEN
THE ECMWF SHOWS SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD
ACROSS COLORADO AND WYOMING ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

MODELS SHOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD AND STALLING
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF COOL AIR ALOFT PUSHING INTO
THE AREA...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...AND FAVORABLE 0-6KM SHEAR
PROFILES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. KEPT POP BETWEEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
MODERATE TO HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY ALTHOUGH
IT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK.

GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AS MODELS ARE SHOWING COMPLETELY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. PREVIOUSLY...ALL MODELS WERE SHOWING AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SIMILAR TO
WHAT THE CURRENT 00Z ECMWF RUN IS DOING THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THE GFS AND MOST ENSEMBLE RUNS SHOW THE PACIFIC UPPER
LEVEL LOW STALLING ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING AS MORE UPPER LEVEL
JET ENERGY PUSHES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE GFS SHOWS THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...CENTERED ALONG THE MEXICO
BORDER. KEPT POP BETWEEN 10 TO 20 PERCENT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER POSSIBLE NEAR KLAR AND KAIA.
OTHERWISE...A BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FROM 11Z TO
18Z TODAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD ACROSS WYOMING AND NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING
IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS BY 20Z...AND EVENTUALLY WESTERN NEBRASKA BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. MVFR VIS ARE EXPECTED FROM KRWL TO KCYS IN THE HEAVIER
RAIN SHOWERS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH MVFR TO NEAR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ONE MORE WARM DAY ACROSS THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A BIT COOLER INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING
AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES ALONG WITH DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MUCH COOLER FOR MONDAY
WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
WYOMING AND DRY ACROSS THE PLAINS.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EVERY DAY AND LIKELY INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS MANY NIGHTS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...SML




000
FXUS65 KCYS 051003
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
403 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ONE MORE VERY WARM DAY FOR FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND MUCH OF THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...BUT IT WILL BE COOLER INTO FAR NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN. BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND COLD
FRONT WILL BEING TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND SHOULD REACH THE COLORADO BORDER BY THIS EVENING.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHAT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. BASED ON THE LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ROBUST
CAPE PROFILES THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY FIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT STABILIZES THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. AT THE SAME TIME INCREASING PACIFIC MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SERVE TO SATURATE THE MID LEVELS...FURTHER
DECREASING THE OVERALL INSTABILITY. THEREFORE THINKING THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE LOW TODAY...ESPECIALLY WITH VERY
LITTLE SHEAR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW MARGINAL
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH SOME
STORMS BUT STORMS SHOULD MOVE FAST ENOUGH SUCH THAT THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL IN RELATIVE TERMS.

MONDAY WILL BE CLOUDY AND COOL WITH MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. A RAIN COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL REMAIN FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT PRECIPITATION.
DEPENDING AN HOW MUCH COOL AIR REMAINS...FORECAST TEMPERATURES MAY
BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC MONDAY. ONE CHANGE IN THE MODELS MONDAY NIGHT
IS THEY ARE HINTING AT A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING MONDAY NIGHT. DID NOT ADD POPS INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT BUT MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL LATE TUESDAY BUT COULD BRING THE NEXT SHOT OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW A CONTINUATION OF THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND ARE NOW
SHOWING THIS WET UNSETTLED PATTERN PERSISTING INTO LATE IN THE
WEEK AS WELL...DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH. THE
GFS AND GEM WERE INDICATING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS 24 HOURS AGO...BUT NOW SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW AROUND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND EVENTUALLY TOWARDS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL OF CONDITIONS TO DRY A BIT BY LATE THIS WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND...BUT GIVEN RECENT MODEL TRENDS OF UNDER ESTIMATING
BL MOISTURE...NOT VERY CONFIDENT WITH THIS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.
CURRENTLY...THE ECMWF IS CLOSEST TO A "DRIER" SOLUTION...BUT EVEN
THE ECMWF SHOWS SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD
ACROSS COLORADO AND WYOMING ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

MODELS SHOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD AND STALLING
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF COOL AIR ALOFT PUSHING INTO
THE AREA...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...AND FAVORABLE 0-6KM SHEAR
PROFILES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. KEPT POP BETWEEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
MODERATE TO HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY ALTHOUGH
IT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK.

GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AS MODELS ARE SHOWING COMPLETELY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. PREVIOUSLY...ALL MODELS WERE SHOWING AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SIMILAR TO
WHAT THE CURRENT 00Z ECMWF RUN IS DOING THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THE GFS AND MOST ENSEMBLE RUNS SHOW THE PACIFIC UPPER
LEVEL LOW STALLING ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING AS MORE UPPER LEVEL
JET ENERGY PUSHES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE GFS SHOWS THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...CENTERED ALONG THE MEXICO
BORDER. KEPT POP BETWEEN 10 TO 20 PERCENT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER POSSIBLE NEAR KLAR AND KAIA.
OTHERWISE...A BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FROM 11Z TO
18Z TODAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD ACROSS WYOMING AND NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING
IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS BY 20Z...AND EVENTUALLY WESTERN NEBRASKA BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. MVFR VIS ARE EXPECTED FROM KRWL TO KCYS IN THE HEAVIER
RAIN SHOWERS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH MVFR TO NEAR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ONE MORE WARM DAY ACROSS THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A BIT COOLER INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING
AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES ALONG WITH DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MUCH COOLER FOR MONDAY
WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
WYOMING AND DRY ACROSS THE PLAINS.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EVERY DAY AND LIKELY INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS MANY NIGHTS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...SML




000
FXUS65 KCYS 051003
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
403 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ONE MORE VERY WARM DAY FOR FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND MUCH OF THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...BUT IT WILL BE COOLER INTO FAR NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN. BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND COLD
FRONT WILL BEING TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND SHOULD REACH THE COLORADO BORDER BY THIS EVENING.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHAT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. BASED ON THE LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ROBUST
CAPE PROFILES THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY FIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT STABILIZES THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. AT THE SAME TIME INCREASING PACIFIC MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SERVE TO SATURATE THE MID LEVELS...FURTHER
DECREASING THE OVERALL INSTABILITY. THEREFORE THINKING THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE LOW TODAY...ESPECIALLY WITH VERY
LITTLE SHEAR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW MARGINAL
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH SOME
STORMS BUT STORMS SHOULD MOVE FAST ENOUGH SUCH THAT THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL IN RELATIVE TERMS.

MONDAY WILL BE CLOUDY AND COOL WITH MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. A RAIN COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL REMAIN FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT PRECIPITATION.
DEPENDING AN HOW MUCH COOL AIR REMAINS...FORECAST TEMPERATURES MAY
BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC MONDAY. ONE CHANGE IN THE MODELS MONDAY NIGHT
IS THEY ARE HINTING AT A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING MONDAY NIGHT. DID NOT ADD POPS INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT BUT MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL LATE TUESDAY BUT COULD BRING THE NEXT SHOT OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW A CONTINUATION OF THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND ARE NOW
SHOWING THIS WET UNSETTLED PATTERN PERSISTING INTO LATE IN THE
WEEK AS WELL...DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH. THE
GFS AND GEM WERE INDICATING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS 24 HOURS AGO...BUT NOW SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW AROUND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND EVENTUALLY TOWARDS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL OF CONDITIONS TO DRY A BIT BY LATE THIS WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND...BUT GIVEN RECENT MODEL TRENDS OF UNDER ESTIMATING
BL MOISTURE...NOT VERY CONFIDENT WITH THIS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.
CURRENTLY...THE ECMWF IS CLOSEST TO A "DRIER" SOLUTION...BUT EVEN
THE ECMWF SHOWS SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD
ACROSS COLORADO AND WYOMING ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

MODELS SHOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD AND STALLING
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF COOL AIR ALOFT PUSHING INTO
THE AREA...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...AND FAVORABLE 0-6KM SHEAR
PROFILES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. KEPT POP BETWEEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
MODERATE TO HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY ALTHOUGH
IT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK.

GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AS MODELS ARE SHOWING COMPLETELY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. PREVIOUSLY...ALL MODELS WERE SHOWING AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SIMILAR TO
WHAT THE CURRENT 00Z ECMWF RUN IS DOING THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THE GFS AND MOST ENSEMBLE RUNS SHOW THE PACIFIC UPPER
LEVEL LOW STALLING ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING AS MORE UPPER LEVEL
JET ENERGY PUSHES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE GFS SHOWS THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...CENTERED ALONG THE MEXICO
BORDER. KEPT POP BETWEEN 10 TO 20 PERCENT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER POSSIBLE NEAR KLAR AND KAIA.
OTHERWISE...A BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FROM 11Z TO
18Z TODAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD ACROSS WYOMING AND NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING
IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS BY 20Z...AND EVENTUALLY WESTERN NEBRASKA BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. MVFR VIS ARE EXPECTED FROM KRWL TO KCYS IN THE HEAVIER
RAIN SHOWERS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH MVFR TO NEAR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ONE MORE WARM DAY ACROSS THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A BIT COOLER INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING
AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES ALONG WITH DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MUCH COOLER FOR MONDAY
WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
WYOMING AND DRY ACROSS THE PLAINS.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EVERY DAY AND LIKELY INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS MANY NIGHTS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...SML



000
FXUS65 KRIW 050948
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
348 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

AFTER A VERY HOT STRETCH OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO...WE WILL FINALLY
BE SEEING SOME RELIEF. AND HOW DO YOU SPELL RELIEF? NO...NOT R-O-L-A-
I-D-E-S TO QUOTE THE OLD 1970S COMMERCIAL...BUT C-O-L-D F-R-O-N-T.
THE COLD FRONT IS NOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH MONTANA AND WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE COWBOY STATE TODAY...DROPPING HIGH TEMPERATURES BY
10 TO 20 DEGREES. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE FAVORED
AREAS WITH A NORTH TO SOUTH MOVING FRONT...LIKE POWELL AND
GREYBULL. IN WINTER...WE MAY BE TALKING ABOUT HIGH WINDS.
HOWEVER...IT IS JULY SO ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE SOME GUSTS TO 40 TO 45
MPH IN THE NORTHERN BIG HORN BASIN...HIGH WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
THE FRONT WILL ALSO TOUCH OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
QUESTION THE STORMS GET? THE SPC DOES HAVE EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA
IN A MARGINAL RISK. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME FACTORS AGAINST IT. ONE
IS THAT THE BEST JET DYNAMICS IN THE FORM OF THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF
A JET STREAK WILL REMAIN ACROSS MONTANA. THE BEST DYNAMICS WOULD BE
ACROSS JOHNSON AND NATRONA COUNTIES. IN ADDITION...CLOUDS SHOULD
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AND LIMIT INSTABILITY. THE MODELS ARE NOT
VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH THE INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AS WELL. SO FOR
NOW...WE WENT WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH SHOWERS. WE KEPT
THE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WIND WORDING HOWEVER. THE BIG THREAT
LOOKS TO BE HEAVY RAIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAY RISE AS HIGH
AS 1.50 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
WITH VALUES OF AN INCH OR HIGHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WE
THOUGHT ABOUT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH...BUT GIVEN THE RECENT DRY
PATTERN EXCEPT FOR THE SPOTTY AFTERNOON CONVECTION THE SOIL SHOULD
BE ABLE TO ABSORB A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE. THE HEAVIEST
CONVECTION WILL BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE WAS SHOVED
TO THE SOUTH.

WE WILL FLIP THE PATTERN FOR MONDAY. THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE FOUND. ON THIS DAY THE MOISTURE WILL SPED NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE LEAST COVERAGE ACROSS THE NATRONA AND
JOHNSON COUNTIES WHERE A MAINLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH LEAST
IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PROFILES. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK. HOW COOL DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER
THERE WILL BE. SOME MOS NUMBERS EVEN IN PLACES LIKE RIVERTON ARE IN
THE 60S. HOWEVER...WITH THE STRONG JULY SUN WE LEFT MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

CONVECTION THEN LOOKS TO BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD FOR TUESDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA. ONE AGAIN...WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL WE MAY BE LACKING SURFACE
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN THE
FORM OF THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A JET STREAK. SO WE WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS THAT DAY AS WELL. WE
ALSO AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF THE
FEISTY STORMS WOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE
ECMWF MODEL IS COLDER AND WETTER WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE GFS ON
THE 00Z RUNS. WILL KEEP FORECAST ABOUT THE SAME WITH THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. WILL TREND A LITTLE COOLER FOR WED
HIGHS BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE ECMWF MODEL WOULD SUGGEST. THURSDAY
LOOKS WARMER WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH A LITTLE MORE
COVERAGE IN THE WEST. MODELS DIFFER TONIGHT ON THE WEATHER FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE GFS TRACKS AN UPPER LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST INTO NEVADA THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN WEAKENS IT AS
IT PUSHES INTO UTAH FRIDAY...THEN INTO WY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THIS WOULD IMPLY SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE WEST AND
NORTH WITH LESS CHANCE CENTRAL AND SOUTH. THE SYSTEM EXITS WY
SATURDAY NIGHT LEAVING SUNDAY DRY. THE ECMWF MODEL CONTINUES TO
TAKE THE UPPER LOW WEST OF WY LEAVING MOST OF THE REGION DRY
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND VERY WARM TO HOT. THE GEM MODEL LEANS
TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION. NORMALLY IN SUMMER IF THE RIDGE BUILDS
ANY APPROACHING WEATHER WILL RIDE OVER THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE
AND NOT BARREL IN AND PUSH THE RIDGE OUT. SO WILL TREND THE
FORECAST THIS WAY...MOSTLY DRY EAST OF THE DIVIDE FRI THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH VERY ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY. ISOLATED STORMS OR
SHOWERS WEST OF THE DIVIDE FRI THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPS VERY
WARM TO HOT EAST OF THE DIVIDE. IN THE WEST...WARM FRI...TAD
COOLER SATURDAY...THEN WARMER NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO NORTHERN WYOMING.  THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN BORDER BTWN 12Z-15Z AND TO NEAR A VCNTY KRIW-KCPR LINE
BY 18Z.  SCT-NMRS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SW THROUGH THE MORNING ALONG WITH LCL MVFR CONDITIONS AND
HIGHER MTN OBSCURATIONS.  THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WY WHERE THE FRONT WILL MEET THE MOISTURE
SURGING IN FROM THE SW.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG ACROSS
NATRONA (VCNTY KCPR) AND SOUTHERN JOHNSON COUNTIES WITH HEAVY RAIN
AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ALONG WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
MORE STABLE CONDITIONS AND AREAS OF MVFR/LCL IFR CIGS WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...EAST OF THE DIVIDE SUNDAY
AFTN/EVE...INTO KCOD-KBYG AROUND 20Z AND VCNTY KLND-KRIW-KCPR AROUND
2Z MONDAY.  THESE LOWER CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO SW WYOMING
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE TODAY AND USHER IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES...HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND A BETTER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH
AND EAST FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS...HAVE A
DECENT CHANCE OF SEEING A WETTING RAIN TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON SATURDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WELL.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...AEM
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS



000
FXUS65 KRIW 050948
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
348 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

AFTER A VERY HOT STRETCH OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO...WE WILL FINALLY
BE SEEING SOME RELIEF. AND HOW DO YOU SPELL RELIEF? NO...NOT R-O-L-A-
I-D-E-S TO QUOTE THE OLD 1970S COMMERCIAL...BUT C-O-L-D F-R-O-N-T.
THE COLD FRONT IS NOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH MONTANA AND WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE COWBOY STATE TODAY...DROPPING HIGH TEMPERATURES BY
10 TO 20 DEGREES. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE FAVORED
AREAS WITH A NORTH TO SOUTH MOVING FRONT...LIKE POWELL AND
GREYBULL. IN WINTER...WE MAY BE TALKING ABOUT HIGH WINDS.
HOWEVER...IT IS JULY SO ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE SOME GUSTS TO 40 TO 45
MPH IN THE NORTHERN BIG HORN BASIN...HIGH WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
THE FRONT WILL ALSO TOUCH OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
QUESTION THE STORMS GET? THE SPC DOES HAVE EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA
IN A MARGINAL RISK. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME FACTORS AGAINST IT. ONE
IS THAT THE BEST JET DYNAMICS IN THE FORM OF THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF
A JET STREAK WILL REMAIN ACROSS MONTANA. THE BEST DYNAMICS WOULD BE
ACROSS JOHNSON AND NATRONA COUNTIES. IN ADDITION...CLOUDS SHOULD
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AND LIMIT INSTABILITY. THE MODELS ARE NOT
VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH THE INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AS WELL. SO FOR
NOW...WE WENT WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH SHOWERS. WE KEPT
THE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WIND WORDING HOWEVER. THE BIG THREAT
LOOKS TO BE HEAVY RAIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAY RISE AS HIGH
AS 1.50 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
WITH VALUES OF AN INCH OR HIGHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WE
THOUGHT ABOUT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH...BUT GIVEN THE RECENT DRY
PATTERN EXCEPT FOR THE SPOTTY AFTERNOON CONVECTION THE SOIL SHOULD
BE ABLE TO ABSORB A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE. THE HEAVIEST
CONVECTION WILL BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE WAS SHOVED
TO THE SOUTH.

WE WILL FLIP THE PATTERN FOR MONDAY. THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE FOUND. ON THIS DAY THE MOISTURE WILL SPED NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE LEAST COVERAGE ACROSS THE NATRONA AND
JOHNSON COUNTIES WHERE A MAINLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH LEAST
IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PROFILES. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK. HOW COOL DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER
THERE WILL BE. SOME MOS NUMBERS EVEN IN PLACES LIKE RIVERTON ARE IN
THE 60S. HOWEVER...WITH THE STRONG JULY SUN WE LEFT MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

CONVECTION THEN LOOKS TO BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD FOR TUESDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA. ONE AGAIN...WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL WE MAY BE LACKING SURFACE
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN THE
FORM OF THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A JET STREAK. SO WE WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS THAT DAY AS WELL. WE
ALSO AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF THE
FEISTY STORMS WOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE
ECMWF MODEL IS COLDER AND WETTER WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE GFS ON
THE 00Z RUNS. WILL KEEP FORECAST ABOUT THE SAME WITH THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. WILL TREND A LITTLE COOLER FOR WED
HIGHS BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE ECMWF MODEL WOULD SUGGEST. THURSDAY
LOOKS WARMER WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH A LITTLE MORE
COVERAGE IN THE WEST. MODELS DIFFER TONIGHT ON THE WEATHER FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE GFS TRACKS AN UPPER LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST INTO NEVADA THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN WEAKENS IT AS
IT PUSHES INTO UTAH FRIDAY...THEN INTO WY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THIS WOULD IMPLY SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE WEST AND
NORTH WITH LESS CHANCE CENTRAL AND SOUTH. THE SYSTEM EXITS WY
SATURDAY NIGHT LEAVING SUNDAY DRY. THE ECMWF MODEL CONTINUES TO
TAKE THE UPPER LOW WEST OF WY LEAVING MOST OF THE REGION DRY
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND VERY WARM TO HOT. THE GEM MODEL LEANS
TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION. NORMALLY IN SUMMER IF THE RIDGE BUILDS
ANY APPROACHING WEATHER WILL RIDE OVER THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE
AND NOT BARREL IN AND PUSH THE RIDGE OUT. SO WILL TREND THE
FORECAST THIS WAY...MOSTLY DRY EAST OF THE DIVIDE FRI THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH VERY ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY. ISOLATED STORMS OR
SHOWERS WEST OF THE DIVIDE FRI THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPS VERY
WARM TO HOT EAST OF THE DIVIDE. IN THE WEST...WARM FRI...TAD
COOLER SATURDAY...THEN WARMER NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO NORTHERN WYOMING.  THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN BORDER BTWN 12Z-15Z AND TO NEAR A VCNTY KRIW-KCPR LINE
BY 18Z.  SCT-NMRS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SW THROUGH THE MORNING ALONG WITH LCL MVFR CONDITIONS AND
HIGHER MTN OBSCURATIONS.  THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WY WHERE THE FRONT WILL MEET THE MOISTURE
SURGING IN FROM THE SW.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG ACROSS
NATRONA (VCNTY KCPR) AND SOUTHERN JOHNSON COUNTIES WITH HEAVY RAIN
AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ALONG WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
MORE STABLE CONDITIONS AND AREAS OF MVFR/LCL IFR CIGS WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...EAST OF THE DIVIDE SUNDAY
AFTN/EVE...INTO KCOD-KBYG AROUND 20Z AND VCNTY KLND-KRIW-KCPR AROUND
2Z MONDAY.  THESE LOWER CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO SW WYOMING
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE TODAY AND USHER IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES...HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND A BETTER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH
AND EAST FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS...HAVE A
DECENT CHANCE OF SEEING A WETTING RAIN TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON SATURDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WELL.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...AEM
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS




000
FXUS65 KRIW 050948
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
348 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

AFTER A VERY HOT STRETCH OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO...WE WILL FINALLY
BE SEEING SOME RELIEF. AND HOW DO YOU SPELL RELIEF? NO...NOT R-O-L-A-
I-D-E-S TO QUOTE THE OLD 1970S COMMERCIAL...BUT C-O-L-D F-R-O-N-T.
THE COLD FRONT IS NOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH MONTANA AND WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE COWBOY STATE TODAY...DROPPING HIGH TEMPERATURES BY
10 TO 20 DEGREES. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE FAVORED
AREAS WITH A NORTH TO SOUTH MOVING FRONT...LIKE POWELL AND
GREYBULL. IN WINTER...WE MAY BE TALKING ABOUT HIGH WINDS.
HOWEVER...IT IS JULY SO ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE SOME GUSTS TO 40 TO 45
MPH IN THE NORTHERN BIG HORN BASIN...HIGH WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
THE FRONT WILL ALSO TOUCH OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
QUESTION THE STORMS GET? THE SPC DOES HAVE EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA
IN A MARGINAL RISK. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME FACTORS AGAINST IT. ONE
IS THAT THE BEST JET DYNAMICS IN THE FORM OF THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF
A JET STREAK WILL REMAIN ACROSS MONTANA. THE BEST DYNAMICS WOULD BE
ACROSS JOHNSON AND NATRONA COUNTIES. IN ADDITION...CLOUDS SHOULD
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AND LIMIT INSTABILITY. THE MODELS ARE NOT
VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH THE INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AS WELL. SO FOR
NOW...WE WENT WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH SHOWERS. WE KEPT
THE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WIND WORDING HOWEVER. THE BIG THREAT
LOOKS TO BE HEAVY RAIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAY RISE AS HIGH
AS 1.50 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
WITH VALUES OF AN INCH OR HIGHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WE
THOUGHT ABOUT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH...BUT GIVEN THE RECENT DRY
PATTERN EXCEPT FOR THE SPOTTY AFTERNOON CONVECTION THE SOIL SHOULD
BE ABLE TO ABSORB A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE. THE HEAVIEST
CONVECTION WILL BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE WAS SHOVED
TO THE SOUTH.

WE WILL FLIP THE PATTERN FOR MONDAY. THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE FOUND. ON THIS DAY THE MOISTURE WILL SPED NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE LEAST COVERAGE ACROSS THE NATRONA AND
JOHNSON COUNTIES WHERE A MAINLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH LEAST
IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PROFILES. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK. HOW COOL DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER
THERE WILL BE. SOME MOS NUMBERS EVEN IN PLACES LIKE RIVERTON ARE IN
THE 60S. HOWEVER...WITH THE STRONG JULY SUN WE LEFT MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

CONVECTION THEN LOOKS TO BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD FOR TUESDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA. ONE AGAIN...WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL WE MAY BE LACKING SURFACE
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN THE
FORM OF THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A JET STREAK. SO WE WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS THAT DAY AS WELL. WE
ALSO AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF THE
FEISTY STORMS WOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE
ECMWF MODEL IS COLDER AND WETTER WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE GFS ON
THE 00Z RUNS. WILL KEEP FORECAST ABOUT THE SAME WITH THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. WILL TREND A LITTLE COOLER FOR WED
HIGHS BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE ECMWF MODEL WOULD SUGGEST. THURSDAY
LOOKS WARMER WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH A LITTLE MORE
COVERAGE IN THE WEST. MODELS DIFFER TONIGHT ON THE WEATHER FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE GFS TRACKS AN UPPER LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST INTO NEVADA THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN WEAKENS IT AS
IT PUSHES INTO UTAH FRIDAY...THEN INTO WY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THIS WOULD IMPLY SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE WEST AND
NORTH WITH LESS CHANCE CENTRAL AND SOUTH. THE SYSTEM EXITS WY
SATURDAY NIGHT LEAVING SUNDAY DRY. THE ECMWF MODEL CONTINUES TO
TAKE THE UPPER LOW WEST OF WY LEAVING MOST OF THE REGION DRY
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND VERY WARM TO HOT. THE GEM MODEL LEANS
TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION. NORMALLY IN SUMMER IF THE RIDGE BUILDS
ANY APPROACHING WEATHER WILL RIDE OVER THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE
AND NOT BARREL IN AND PUSH THE RIDGE OUT. SO WILL TREND THE
FORECAST THIS WAY...MOSTLY DRY EAST OF THE DIVIDE FRI THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH VERY ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY. ISOLATED STORMS OR
SHOWERS WEST OF THE DIVIDE FRI THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPS VERY
WARM TO HOT EAST OF THE DIVIDE. IN THE WEST...WARM FRI...TAD
COOLER SATURDAY...THEN WARMER NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO NORTHERN WYOMING.  THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN BORDER BTWN 12Z-15Z AND TO NEAR A VCNTY KRIW-KCPR LINE
BY 18Z.  SCT-NMRS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SW THROUGH THE MORNING ALONG WITH LCL MVFR CONDITIONS AND
HIGHER MTN OBSCURATIONS.  THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WY WHERE THE FRONT WILL MEET THE MOISTURE
SURGING IN FROM THE SW.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG ACROSS
NATRONA (VCNTY KCPR) AND SOUTHERN JOHNSON COUNTIES WITH HEAVY RAIN
AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ALONG WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
MORE STABLE CONDITIONS AND AREAS OF MVFR/LCL IFR CIGS WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...EAST OF THE DIVIDE SUNDAY
AFTN/EVE...INTO KCOD-KBYG AROUND 20Z AND VCNTY KLND-KRIW-KCPR AROUND
2Z MONDAY.  THESE LOWER CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO SW WYOMING
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE TODAY AND USHER IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES...HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND A BETTER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH
AND EAST FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS...HAVE A
DECENT CHANCE OF SEEING A WETTING RAIN TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON SATURDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WELL.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...AEM
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS




000
FXUS65 KRIW 050948
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
348 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

AFTER A VERY HOT STRETCH OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO...WE WILL FINALLY
BE SEEING SOME RELIEF. AND HOW DO YOU SPELL RELIEF? NO...NOT R-O-L-A-
I-D-E-S TO QUOTE THE OLD 1970S COMMERCIAL...BUT C-O-L-D F-R-O-N-T.
THE COLD FRONT IS NOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH MONTANA AND WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE COWBOY STATE TODAY...DROPPING HIGH TEMPERATURES BY
10 TO 20 DEGREES. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE FAVORED
AREAS WITH A NORTH TO SOUTH MOVING FRONT...LIKE POWELL AND
GREYBULL. IN WINTER...WE MAY BE TALKING ABOUT HIGH WINDS.
HOWEVER...IT IS JULY SO ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE SOME GUSTS TO 40 TO 45
MPH IN THE NORTHERN BIG HORN BASIN...HIGH WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
THE FRONT WILL ALSO TOUCH OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
QUESTION THE STORMS GET? THE SPC DOES HAVE EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA
IN A MARGINAL RISK. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME FACTORS AGAINST IT. ONE
IS THAT THE BEST JET DYNAMICS IN THE FORM OF THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF
A JET STREAK WILL REMAIN ACROSS MONTANA. THE BEST DYNAMICS WOULD BE
ACROSS JOHNSON AND NATRONA COUNTIES. IN ADDITION...CLOUDS SHOULD
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AND LIMIT INSTABILITY. THE MODELS ARE NOT
VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH THE INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AS WELL. SO FOR
NOW...WE WENT WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH SHOWERS. WE KEPT
THE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WIND WORDING HOWEVER. THE BIG THREAT
LOOKS TO BE HEAVY RAIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAY RISE AS HIGH
AS 1.50 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
WITH VALUES OF AN INCH OR HIGHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WE
THOUGHT ABOUT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH...BUT GIVEN THE RECENT DRY
PATTERN EXCEPT FOR THE SPOTTY AFTERNOON CONVECTION THE SOIL SHOULD
BE ABLE TO ABSORB A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE. THE HEAVIEST
CONVECTION WILL BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE WAS SHOVED
TO THE SOUTH.

WE WILL FLIP THE PATTERN FOR MONDAY. THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE FOUND. ON THIS DAY THE MOISTURE WILL SPED NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE LEAST COVERAGE ACROSS THE NATRONA AND
JOHNSON COUNTIES WHERE A MAINLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH LEAST
IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PROFILES. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK. HOW COOL DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER
THERE WILL BE. SOME MOS NUMBERS EVEN IN PLACES LIKE RIVERTON ARE IN
THE 60S. HOWEVER...WITH THE STRONG JULY SUN WE LEFT MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

CONVECTION THEN LOOKS TO BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD FOR TUESDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA. ONE AGAIN...WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL WE MAY BE LACKING SURFACE
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN THE
FORM OF THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A JET STREAK. SO WE WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS THAT DAY AS WELL. WE
ALSO AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF THE
FEISTY STORMS WOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE
ECMWF MODEL IS COLDER AND WETTER WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE GFS ON
THE 00Z RUNS. WILL KEEP FORECAST ABOUT THE SAME WITH THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. WILL TREND A LITTLE COOLER FOR WED
HIGHS BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE ECMWF MODEL WOULD SUGGEST. THURSDAY
LOOKS WARMER WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH A LITTLE MORE
COVERAGE IN THE WEST. MODELS DIFFER TONIGHT ON THE WEATHER FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE GFS TRACKS AN UPPER LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST INTO NEVADA THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN WEAKENS IT AS
IT PUSHES INTO UTAH FRIDAY...THEN INTO WY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THIS WOULD IMPLY SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE WEST AND
NORTH WITH LESS CHANCE CENTRAL AND SOUTH. THE SYSTEM EXITS WY
SATURDAY NIGHT LEAVING SUNDAY DRY. THE ECMWF MODEL CONTINUES TO
TAKE THE UPPER LOW WEST OF WY LEAVING MOST OF THE REGION DRY
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND VERY WARM TO HOT. THE GEM MODEL LEANS
TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION. NORMALLY IN SUMMER IF THE RIDGE BUILDS
ANY APPROACHING WEATHER WILL RIDE OVER THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE
AND NOT BARREL IN AND PUSH THE RIDGE OUT. SO WILL TREND THE
FORECAST THIS WAY...MOSTLY DRY EAST OF THE DIVIDE FRI THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH VERY ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY. ISOLATED STORMS OR
SHOWERS WEST OF THE DIVIDE FRI THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPS VERY
WARM TO HOT EAST OF THE DIVIDE. IN THE WEST...WARM FRI...TAD
COOLER SATURDAY...THEN WARMER NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO NORTHERN WYOMING.  THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN BORDER BTWN 12Z-15Z AND TO NEAR A VCNTY KRIW-KCPR LINE
BY 18Z.  SCT-NMRS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SW THROUGH THE MORNING ALONG WITH LCL MVFR CONDITIONS AND
HIGHER MTN OBSCURATIONS.  THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WY WHERE THE FRONT WILL MEET THE MOISTURE
SURGING IN FROM THE SW.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG ACROSS
NATRONA (VCNTY KCPR) AND SOUTHERN JOHNSON COUNTIES WITH HEAVY RAIN
AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ALONG WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
MORE STABLE CONDITIONS AND AREAS OF MVFR/LCL IFR CIGS WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...EAST OF THE DIVIDE SUNDAY
AFTN/EVE...INTO KCOD-KBYG AROUND 20Z AND VCNTY KLND-KRIW-KCPR AROUND
2Z MONDAY.  THESE LOWER CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO SW WYOMING
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE TODAY AND USHER IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES...HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND A BETTER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH
AND EAST FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS...HAVE A
DECENT CHANCE OF SEEING A WETTING RAIN TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON SATURDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WELL.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...AEM
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS




000
FXUS65 KRIW 050948
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
348 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

AFTER A VERY HOT STRETCH OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO...WE WILL FINALLY
BE SEEING SOME RELIEF. AND HOW DO YOU SPELL RELIEF? NO...NOT R-O-L-A-
I-D-E-S TO QUOTE THE OLD 1970S COMMERCIAL...BUT C-O-L-D F-R-O-N-T.
THE COLD FRONT IS NOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH MONTANA AND WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE COWBOY STATE TODAY...DROPPING HIGH TEMPERATURES BY
10 TO 20 DEGREES. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE FAVORED
AREAS WITH A NORTH TO SOUTH MOVING FRONT...LIKE POWELL AND
GREYBULL. IN WINTER...WE MAY BE TALKING ABOUT HIGH WINDS.
HOWEVER...IT IS JULY SO ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE SOME GUSTS TO 40 TO 45
MPH IN THE NORTHERN BIG HORN BASIN...HIGH WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
THE FRONT WILL ALSO TOUCH OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
QUESTION THE STORMS GET? THE SPC DOES HAVE EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA
IN A MARGINAL RISK. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME FACTORS AGAINST IT. ONE
IS THAT THE BEST JET DYNAMICS IN THE FORM OF THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF
A JET STREAK WILL REMAIN ACROSS MONTANA. THE BEST DYNAMICS WOULD BE
ACROSS JOHNSON AND NATRONA COUNTIES. IN ADDITION...CLOUDS SHOULD
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AND LIMIT INSTABILITY. THE MODELS ARE NOT
VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH THE INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AS WELL. SO FOR
NOW...WE WENT WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH SHOWERS. WE KEPT
THE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WIND WORDING HOWEVER. THE BIG THREAT
LOOKS TO BE HEAVY RAIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAY RISE AS HIGH
AS 1.50 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
WITH VALUES OF AN INCH OR HIGHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WE
THOUGHT ABOUT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH...BUT GIVEN THE RECENT DRY
PATTERN EXCEPT FOR THE SPOTTY AFTERNOON CONVECTION THE SOIL SHOULD
BE ABLE TO ABSORB A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE. THE HEAVIEST
CONVECTION WILL BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE WAS SHOVED
TO THE SOUTH.

WE WILL FLIP THE PATTERN FOR MONDAY. THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE FOUND. ON THIS DAY THE MOISTURE WILL SPED NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE LEAST COVERAGE ACROSS THE NATRONA AND
JOHNSON COUNTIES WHERE A MAINLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH LEAST
IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PROFILES. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK. HOW COOL DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER
THERE WILL BE. SOME MOS NUMBERS EVEN IN PLACES LIKE RIVERTON ARE IN
THE 60S. HOWEVER...WITH THE STRONG JULY SUN WE LEFT MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

CONVECTION THEN LOOKS TO BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD FOR TUESDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA. ONE AGAIN...WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL WE MAY BE LACKING SURFACE
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN THE
FORM OF THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A JET STREAK. SO WE WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS THAT DAY AS WELL. WE
ALSO AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF THE
FEISTY STORMS WOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE
ECMWF MODEL IS COLDER AND WETTER WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE GFS ON
THE 00Z RUNS. WILL KEEP FORECAST ABOUT THE SAME WITH THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. WILL TREND A LITTLE COOLER FOR WED
HIGHS BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE ECMWF MODEL WOULD SUGGEST. THURSDAY
LOOKS WARMER WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH A LITTLE MORE
COVERAGE IN THE WEST. MODELS DIFFER TONIGHT ON THE WEATHER FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE GFS TRACKS AN UPPER LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST INTO NEVADA THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN WEAKENS IT AS
IT PUSHES INTO UTAH FRIDAY...THEN INTO WY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THIS WOULD IMPLY SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE WEST AND
NORTH WITH LESS CHANCE CENTRAL AND SOUTH. THE SYSTEM EXITS WY
SATURDAY NIGHT LEAVING SUNDAY DRY. THE ECMWF MODEL CONTINUES TO
TAKE THE UPPER LOW WEST OF WY LEAVING MOST OF THE REGION DRY
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND VERY WARM TO HOT. THE GEM MODEL LEANS
TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION. NORMALLY IN SUMMER IF THE RIDGE BUILDS
ANY APPROACHING WEATHER WILL RIDE OVER THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE
AND NOT BARREL IN AND PUSH THE RIDGE OUT. SO WILL TREND THE
FORECAST THIS WAY...MOSTLY DRY EAST OF THE DIVIDE FRI THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH VERY ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY. ISOLATED STORMS OR
SHOWERS WEST OF THE DIVIDE FRI THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPS VERY
WARM TO HOT EAST OF THE DIVIDE. IN THE WEST...WARM FRI...TAD
COOLER SATURDAY...THEN WARMER NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO NORTHERN WYOMING.  THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN BORDER BTWN 12Z-15Z AND TO NEAR A VCNTY KRIW-KCPR LINE
BY 18Z.  SCT-NMRS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SW THROUGH THE MORNING ALONG WITH LCL MVFR CONDITIONS AND
HIGHER MTN OBSCURATIONS.  THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WY WHERE THE FRONT WILL MEET THE MOISTURE
SURGING IN FROM THE SW.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG ACROSS
NATRONA (VCNTY KCPR) AND SOUTHERN JOHNSON COUNTIES WITH HEAVY RAIN
AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ALONG WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
MORE STABLE CONDITIONS AND AREAS OF MVFR/LCL IFR CIGS WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...EAST OF THE DIVIDE SUNDAY
AFTN/EVE...INTO KCOD-KBYG AROUND 20Z AND VCNTY KLND-KRIW-KCPR AROUND
2Z MONDAY.  THESE LOWER CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO SW WYOMING
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE TODAY AND USHER IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES...HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND A BETTER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH
AND EAST FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS...HAVE A
DECENT CHANCE OF SEEING A WETTING RAIN TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON SATURDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WELL.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...AEM
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS




000
FXUS63 KUNR 050847
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
247 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD COLD FRONT FROM NORTHEAST ND INTO
SOUTHWEST MT WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MT
NEAR THE FRONT AND TROUGH FROM THE LOW INTO CENTRAL NE. NOCTURNAL
LOW LEVEL JET PUSHING EAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MAIN THETA-E
ADVECTION OVER EASTERN SD/CENTRAL NE ALLOWING TSRA TO END OVER THE
CWA. STILL MIGHT BE AN ELEVATED STORM THROUGH 12Z OVER CENTRAL SD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...ATTENTION TURNS TO COLD FRONT/LOW. LATEST WATER
VAPOUR LOOP HAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA
AND THEN ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDERS OF MT/ND. LIFT UNDER RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF 120KT JET SUPPORTING ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS
NORTHEAST MT AT 0830Z...WHICH WILL HEAD INTO WESTERN ND THIS
MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CWA. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PUT OUT AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL PUSH COLD FRONT INTO NORTHWEST REACHES
OF CWA THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF JET WILL ENHANCE SURFACE LOW ALONG COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
SLIP TO I-90 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW NEAR KRAP. VERY
WARM/MOIST AIR AHEAD OF LOW WILL POOL ALONG BOUNDARY WITH 2-4KJ/KG
MLCAPE AND 25-50J/KG MLCIN. EFFECTIVE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 20M/S
EXPECTED ALONG BOUNDARY. AS CAP BREAKS ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...EXPECT
SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN STRENGTH OF
INSTABILITY...VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. TORNADO THREAT IS THERE
GIVEN NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BEHIND COLD FRONT...ELONGATING
HODOGRAPHS IF SUPERCELLS ARE POST FRONTAL...WHICH IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY GIVEN SETUP...BUT MLLCL/S FAIRLY HIGH EXCEPT FOR
FAVORED AREA JUST EAST/NORTHEAST OF SURFACE LOW. ACTIVITY WILL
SLOWLY GROW UPSCALE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AND
MORPH INTO A POTENTIALLY STRONG FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS OVER
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN SD WITH ENHANCED WIND THREAT. GIVEN
PARAMETERS...ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS ON TARGET EAST
OF RAPID CITY. COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF CWA TONIGHT WITH A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND IT THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN
FRONTAL POSITION.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CWA WITH DRIER CONDITIONS ON
TAP.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. RETURN FLOW ACROSS NE
WY AND FAR WRN SD WILL BRING BACK SOME CHANCES OF STORMS TUE
AFTN/NGHT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION WED AND THU WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR STORMS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE. MODELS ARE DIVERGING GREATLY FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH HOW AN UPPER LOW OVER CA WILL PHASE BACK INTO THE
MAIN FLOW. THE WETTER SOLUTION IS THE GFS WHICH HAS MOST OF THE
ENERGY PUSHING WITHIN THE SW FLOW INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THE ECMWF
KEEP STRONG UPPER RIDGING CENTERED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WHICH
KEEPS THE REMNANT LOW PUSHING NE THRU THE NRN ROCKIES...ALONG WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. WITH THIS
FRONT...NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SOME STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONG STORMS. STORM ACTIVITY
WILL END THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM
THE NW...LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13



000
FXUS63 KUNR 050847
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
247 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD COLD FRONT FROM NORTHEAST ND INTO
SOUTHWEST MT WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MT
NEAR THE FRONT AND TROUGH FROM THE LOW INTO CENTRAL NE. NOCTURNAL
LOW LEVEL JET PUSHING EAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MAIN THETA-E
ADVECTION OVER EASTERN SD/CENTRAL NE ALLOWING TSRA TO END OVER THE
CWA. STILL MIGHT BE AN ELEVATED STORM THROUGH 12Z OVER CENTRAL SD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...ATTENTION TURNS TO COLD FRONT/LOW. LATEST WATER
VAPOUR LOOP HAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA
AND THEN ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDERS OF MT/ND. LIFT UNDER RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF 120KT JET SUPPORTING ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS
NORTHEAST MT AT 0830Z...WHICH WILL HEAD INTO WESTERN ND THIS
MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CWA. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PUT OUT AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL PUSH COLD FRONT INTO NORTHWEST REACHES
OF CWA THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF JET WILL ENHANCE SURFACE LOW ALONG COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
SLIP TO I-90 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW NEAR KRAP. VERY
WARM/MOIST AIR AHEAD OF LOW WILL POOL ALONG BOUNDARY WITH 2-4KJ/KG
MLCAPE AND 25-50J/KG MLCIN. EFFECTIVE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 20M/S
EXPECTED ALONG BOUNDARY. AS CAP BREAKS ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...EXPECT
SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN STRENGTH OF
INSTABILITY...VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. TORNADO THREAT IS THERE
GIVEN NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BEHIND COLD FRONT...ELONGATING
HODOGRAPHS IF SUPERCELLS ARE POST FRONTAL...WHICH IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY GIVEN SETUP...BUT MLLCL/S FAIRLY HIGH EXCEPT FOR
FAVORED AREA JUST EAST/NORTHEAST OF SURFACE LOW. ACTIVITY WILL
SLOWLY GROW UPSCALE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AND
MORPH INTO A POTENTIALLY STRONG FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS OVER
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN SD WITH ENHANCED WIND THREAT. GIVEN
PARAMETERS...ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS ON TARGET EAST
OF RAPID CITY. COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF CWA TONIGHT WITH A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND IT THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN
FRONTAL POSITION.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CWA WITH DRIER CONDITIONS ON
TAP.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. RETURN FLOW ACROSS NE
WY AND FAR WRN SD WILL BRING BACK SOME CHANCES OF STORMS TUE
AFTN/NGHT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION WED AND THU WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR STORMS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE. MODELS ARE DIVERGING GREATLY FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH HOW AN UPPER LOW OVER CA WILL PHASE BACK INTO THE
MAIN FLOW. THE WETTER SOLUTION IS THE GFS WHICH HAS MOST OF THE
ENERGY PUSHING WITHIN THE SW FLOW INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THE ECMWF
KEEP STRONG UPPER RIDGING CENTERED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WHICH
KEEPS THE REMNANT LOW PUSHING NE THRU THE NRN ROCKIES...ALONG WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. WITH THIS
FRONT...NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SOME STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONG STORMS. STORM ACTIVITY
WILL END THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM
THE NW...LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13




000
FXUS65 KRIW 050548
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1151 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

UPDATE...ADDED 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY (ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT)

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF WYOMING THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...THE NORTH WILL BE GENERALLY DRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
WARMER...BEFORE A COMBINATION OF A CANADIAN COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL WYOMING...AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT BASIN...WILL COMBINE FOR
RATHER WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD COVER...COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION WILL
COOL TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE CENTERED AROUND THE BIGHORN
MOUNTAINS...WHILE MOST OF THE MOUNTAIN AREAS CAN EXPECT RAINFALL
OF A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.
MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL RECEIVE LESS RAINFALL. AREAS
ALONG THE FOOTHILLS...SUCH AS BUFFALO...CASPER... LANDER...CODY
AND DUBOIS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF RECEIVING RAINFALL OF A HALF
INCH OR MORE.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
AS MOISTURE SAGS TOO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE AND DRIER AIR
BEGINS TO FILTER INTO NORTHWEST WYOMING. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
ON MONDAY WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING WHERE MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN MORE PLENTIFUL AND INSTABILITY MORE FAVORABLE. EXPECT THIS
AREA TO PUSH FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST DURING MONDAY EVENING.
LIFTED INDICES AND LAPSE RATES INDICATE THAT CONVECTION WILL BE
LIMITED OR NON-EXISTENT IN JOHNSON AND NATRONA COUNTIES. CONVECTION
LOOKS TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE IN THE AFTERNOON WOULD INTENSIFY CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTH-HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL
SLIDE SOUTH EARLY WEDNESDAY SLOWING THE WARMING TREND THAT HAD BEGUN
THE PREVIOUS DAY. OVERALL...WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A TYPICAL SUMMER
DAY IN WYOMING...ALBEIT COOLER THAN NORMAL...WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION THAT BEGINS MIDDAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ONE CAVEAT
HERE WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE JUICY AIR AND FAVORABLE SHEAR
PROFILE IN JOHNSON AND NATRONA COUNTIES BEHIND THE WEAK BOUNDARY.
LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE ANOTHER WEAK SURGE OF COOL AIR EARLY
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO BACK TO
THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY THE SOUTHWEST WITH WARMER AIR SURGING INTO
THE STATE. THIS WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LOW SET TO REACH THE
CALIFORNIA COAST THURSDAY/FRIDAY. AS THIS LOW MOVES INLAND...
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO OR BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH WARMER
SOUTHWEST FLOW ENVELOPING WYOMING. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. FOR NOW...BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A DRY SLOT ACROSS WYOMING SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW
APPROACHES. COULD BE WARM...WINDY...AND DRY FRIDAY AND MORE SO
SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THIS COULD
BE SOMETHING TO FOLLOW FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IF FUELS WERE TO
BECOME CRITICAL.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO NORTHERN WYOMING.  THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN BORDER BTWN 12Z-15Z AND TO NEAR A VCNTY KRIW-KCPR LINE
BY 18Z.  SCT-NMRS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SW THROUGH THE MORNING ALONG WITH LCL MVFR CONDITIONS AND
HIGHER MTN OBSCURATIONS.  THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WY WHERE THE FRONT WILL MEET THE MOISTURE
SURGING IN FROM THE SW.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG ACROSS
NATRONA (VCNTY KCPR) AND SOUTHERN JOHNSON COUNTIES WITH HEAVY RAIN
AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ALONG WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
MORE STABLE CONDITIONS AND AREAS OF MVFR/LCL IFR CIGS WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...EAST OF THE DIVIDE SUNDAY
AFTN/EVE...INTO KCOD-KBYG AROUND 20Z AND VCNTY KLND-KRIW-KCPR AROUND
2Z MONDAY.  THESE LOWER CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO SW WYOMING
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF WYOMING THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...THE NORTH WILL BE GENERALLY DRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
WARMER...BEFORE A COMBINATION OF A CANADIAN COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL WYOMING...AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT BASIN...WILL COMBINE FOR
RATHER WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD COVER...COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION WILL
COOL TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE CENTERED AROUND THE BIGHORN
MOUNTAINS...WHILE MOST OF THE MOUNTAIN AREAS CAN EXPECT RAINFALL
OF A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.
MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL RECEIVE LESS RAINFALL. AREAS
ALONG THE FOOTHILLS...SUCH AS BUFFALO...CASPER... LANDER...CODY
AND DUBOIS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF RECEIVING RAINFALL OF A HALF
INCH OR MORE.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...C.BAKER
LONG TERM...CNJ
AVIATION...AEM
FIRE WEATHER...C.BAKER




000
FXUS65 KRIW 050548
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1151 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

UPDATE...ADDED 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY (ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT)

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF WYOMING THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...THE NORTH WILL BE GENERALLY DRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
WARMER...BEFORE A COMBINATION OF A CANADIAN COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL WYOMING...AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT BASIN...WILL COMBINE FOR
RATHER WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD COVER...COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION WILL
COOL TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE CENTERED AROUND THE BIGHORN
MOUNTAINS...WHILE MOST OF THE MOUNTAIN AREAS CAN EXPECT RAINFALL
OF A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.
MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL RECEIVE LESS RAINFALL. AREAS
ALONG THE FOOTHILLS...SUCH AS BUFFALO...CASPER... LANDER...CODY
AND DUBOIS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF RECEIVING RAINFALL OF A HALF
INCH OR MORE.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
AS MOISTURE SAGS TOO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE AND DRIER AIR
BEGINS TO FILTER INTO NORTHWEST WYOMING. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
ON MONDAY WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING WHERE MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN MORE PLENTIFUL AND INSTABILITY MORE FAVORABLE. EXPECT THIS
AREA TO PUSH FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST DURING MONDAY EVENING.
LIFTED INDICES AND LAPSE RATES INDICATE THAT CONVECTION WILL BE
LIMITED OR NON-EXISTENT IN JOHNSON AND NATRONA COUNTIES. CONVECTION
LOOKS TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE IN THE AFTERNOON WOULD INTENSIFY CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTH-HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL
SLIDE SOUTH EARLY WEDNESDAY SLOWING THE WARMING TREND THAT HAD BEGUN
THE PREVIOUS DAY. OVERALL...WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A TYPICAL SUMMER
DAY IN WYOMING...ALBEIT COOLER THAN NORMAL...WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION THAT BEGINS MIDDAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ONE CAVEAT
HERE WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE JUICY AIR AND FAVORABLE SHEAR
PROFILE IN JOHNSON AND NATRONA COUNTIES BEHIND THE WEAK BOUNDARY.
LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE ANOTHER WEAK SURGE OF COOL AIR EARLY
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO BACK TO
THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY THE SOUTHWEST WITH WARMER AIR SURGING INTO
THE STATE. THIS WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LOW SET TO REACH THE
CALIFORNIA COAST THURSDAY/FRIDAY. AS THIS LOW MOVES INLAND...
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO OR BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH WARMER
SOUTHWEST FLOW ENVELOPING WYOMING. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. FOR NOW...BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A DRY SLOT ACROSS WYOMING SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW
APPROACHES. COULD BE WARM...WINDY...AND DRY FRIDAY AND MORE SO
SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THIS COULD
BE SOMETHING TO FOLLOW FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IF FUELS WERE TO
BECOME CRITICAL.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO NORTHERN WYOMING.  THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN BORDER BTWN 12Z-15Z AND TO NEAR A VCNTY KRIW-KCPR LINE
BY 18Z.  SCT-NMRS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SW THROUGH THE MORNING ALONG WITH LCL MVFR CONDITIONS AND
HIGHER MTN OBSCURATIONS.  THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WY WHERE THE FRONT WILL MEET THE MOISTURE
SURGING IN FROM THE SW.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG ACROSS
NATRONA (VCNTY KCPR) AND SOUTHERN JOHNSON COUNTIES WITH HEAVY RAIN
AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ALONG WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
MORE STABLE CONDITIONS AND AREAS OF MVFR/LCL IFR CIGS WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...EAST OF THE DIVIDE SUNDAY
AFTN/EVE...INTO KCOD-KBYG AROUND 20Z AND VCNTY KLND-KRIW-KCPR AROUND
2Z MONDAY.  THESE LOWER CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO SW WYOMING
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF WYOMING THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...THE NORTH WILL BE GENERALLY DRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
WARMER...BEFORE A COMBINATION OF A CANADIAN COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL WYOMING...AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT BASIN...WILL COMBINE FOR
RATHER WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD COVER...COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION WILL
COOL TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE CENTERED AROUND THE BIGHORN
MOUNTAINS...WHILE MOST OF THE MOUNTAIN AREAS CAN EXPECT RAINFALL
OF A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.
MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL RECEIVE LESS RAINFALL. AREAS
ALONG THE FOOTHILLS...SUCH AS BUFFALO...CASPER... LANDER...CODY
AND DUBOIS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF RECEIVING RAINFALL OF A HALF
INCH OR MORE.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...C.BAKER
LONG TERM...CNJ
AVIATION...AEM
FIRE WEATHER...C.BAKER



000
FXUS63 KUNR 050510
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1110 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A 1003MB SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN
MONTANA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
AND CENTRAL MONTANA...LEAVING US IN THE WARM SECTOR. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE UNR
CWA...WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 2500-3500J/KG AND NO CIN. DESPITE THE
LACK OF CIN OVER THE REGION...SATELLITE REVEALS MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...WITH ONLY AN AGITATED CU FIELD OVER THE BLACK HILLS WHERE
STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO FIRE OFF SO FAR.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD FIRE OFF
THE BLACK HILLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS FIRING OFF THE SURFACE TROUGH IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. THE CAPE AND SHEAR PARAMETERS
SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA...SO ANYTHING THAT DOES FIRE
OFF DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. STORMS SHOULD DIE
DOWN THIS EVENING AFTER THE SUN SETS JUST IN TIME FOR THE
FIREWORKS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF STORMS THAT FIRE OFF IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE THE LLJ WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH AND KEEP
STORMS GOING MOST OF THE NIGHT.

BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT IN MONTANA SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LATEST NWP GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN
THE COLD FRONT A BIT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MORE STORMIER
SOLUTION FOR THE CWA AS THE FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH DURING
PEAK HEATING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL EXIT THE AREA BY MON
MORNING...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY
TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. LOOKING TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...A TROF IS STILL FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST
COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW COULD BRING AT LEAST
LOW POPS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE EARLY IN THE WEEK...RISING TO
ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH SUN
MORNING...EXPECTED FOR POCKETS OF SMOKE FROM FIREWORKS. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...WITH SCT
SHRA AND TS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER WESTERN SD. SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVER NE
WY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR CONDS LIKELY THERE. STRONG NW
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT SUN AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC



000
FXUS63 KUNR 050510
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1110 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A 1003MB SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN
MONTANA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
AND CENTRAL MONTANA...LEAVING US IN THE WARM SECTOR. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE UNR
CWA...WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 2500-3500J/KG AND NO CIN. DESPITE THE
LACK OF CIN OVER THE REGION...SATELLITE REVEALS MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...WITH ONLY AN AGITATED CU FIELD OVER THE BLACK HILLS WHERE
STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO FIRE OFF SO FAR.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD FIRE OFF
THE BLACK HILLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS FIRING OFF THE SURFACE TROUGH IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. THE CAPE AND SHEAR PARAMETERS
SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA...SO ANYTHING THAT DOES FIRE
OFF DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. STORMS SHOULD DIE
DOWN THIS EVENING AFTER THE SUN SETS JUST IN TIME FOR THE
FIREWORKS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF STORMS THAT FIRE OFF IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE THE LLJ WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH AND KEEP
STORMS GOING MOST OF THE NIGHT.

BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT IN MONTANA SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LATEST NWP GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN
THE COLD FRONT A BIT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MORE STORMIER
SOLUTION FOR THE CWA AS THE FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH DURING
PEAK HEATING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL EXIT THE AREA BY MON
MORNING...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY
TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. LOOKING TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...A TROF IS STILL FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST
COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW COULD BRING AT LEAST
LOW POPS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE EARLY IN THE WEEK...RISING TO
ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH SUN
MORNING...EXPECTED FOR POCKETS OF SMOKE FROM FIREWORKS. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...WITH SCT
SHRA AND TS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER WESTERN SD. SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVER NE
WY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR CONDS LIKELY THERE. STRONG NW
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT SUN AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC



000
FXUS63 KUNR 050510
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1110 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A 1003MB SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN
MONTANA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
AND CENTRAL MONTANA...LEAVING US IN THE WARM SECTOR. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE UNR
CWA...WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 2500-3500J/KG AND NO CIN. DESPITE THE
LACK OF CIN OVER THE REGION...SATELLITE REVEALS MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...WITH ONLY AN AGITATED CU FIELD OVER THE BLACK HILLS WHERE
STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO FIRE OFF SO FAR.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD FIRE OFF
THE BLACK HILLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS FIRING OFF THE SURFACE TROUGH IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. THE CAPE AND SHEAR PARAMETERS
SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA...SO ANYTHING THAT DOES FIRE
OFF DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. STORMS SHOULD DIE
DOWN THIS EVENING AFTER THE SUN SETS JUST IN TIME FOR THE
FIREWORKS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF STORMS THAT FIRE OFF IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE THE LLJ WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH AND KEEP
STORMS GOING MOST OF THE NIGHT.

BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT IN MONTANA SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LATEST NWP GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN
THE COLD FRONT A BIT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MORE STORMIER
SOLUTION FOR THE CWA AS THE FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH DURING
PEAK HEATING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL EXIT THE AREA BY MON
MORNING...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY
TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. LOOKING TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...A TROF IS STILL FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST
COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW COULD BRING AT LEAST
LOW POPS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE EARLY IN THE WEEK...RISING TO
ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH SUN
MORNING...EXPECTED FOR POCKETS OF SMOKE FROM FIREWORKS. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...WITH SCT
SHRA AND TS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER WESTERN SD. SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVER NE
WY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR CONDS LIKELY THERE. STRONG NW
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT SUN AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC



000
FXUS63 KUNR 050510
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1110 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A 1003MB SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN
MONTANA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
AND CENTRAL MONTANA...LEAVING US IN THE WARM SECTOR. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE UNR
CWA...WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 2500-3500J/KG AND NO CIN. DESPITE THE
LACK OF CIN OVER THE REGION...SATELLITE REVEALS MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...WITH ONLY AN AGITATED CU FIELD OVER THE BLACK HILLS WHERE
STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO FIRE OFF SO FAR.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD FIRE OFF
THE BLACK HILLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS FIRING OFF THE SURFACE TROUGH IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. THE CAPE AND SHEAR PARAMETERS
SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA...SO ANYTHING THAT DOES FIRE
OFF DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. STORMS SHOULD DIE
DOWN THIS EVENING AFTER THE SUN SETS JUST IN TIME FOR THE
FIREWORKS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF STORMS THAT FIRE OFF IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE THE LLJ WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH AND KEEP
STORMS GOING MOST OF THE NIGHT.

BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT IN MONTANA SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LATEST NWP GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN
THE COLD FRONT A BIT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MORE STORMIER
SOLUTION FOR THE CWA AS THE FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH DURING
PEAK HEATING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL EXIT THE AREA BY MON
MORNING...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY
TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. LOOKING TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...A TROF IS STILL FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST
COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW COULD BRING AT LEAST
LOW POPS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE EARLY IN THE WEEK...RISING TO
ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH SUN
MORNING...EXPECTED FOR POCKETS OF SMOKE FROM FIREWORKS. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...WITH SCT
SHRA AND TS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER WESTERN SD. SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVER NE
WY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR CONDS LIKELY THERE. STRONG NW
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT SUN AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC



000
FXUS63 KUNR 050510
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1110 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A 1003MB SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN
MONTANA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
AND CENTRAL MONTANA...LEAVING US IN THE WARM SECTOR. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE UNR
CWA...WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 2500-3500J/KG AND NO CIN. DESPITE THE
LACK OF CIN OVER THE REGION...SATELLITE REVEALS MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...WITH ONLY AN AGITATED CU FIELD OVER THE BLACK HILLS WHERE
STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO FIRE OFF SO FAR.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD FIRE OFF
THE BLACK HILLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS FIRING OFF THE SURFACE TROUGH IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. THE CAPE AND SHEAR PARAMETERS
SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA...SO ANYTHING THAT DOES FIRE
OFF DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. STORMS SHOULD DIE
DOWN THIS EVENING AFTER THE SUN SETS JUST IN TIME FOR THE
FIREWORKS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF STORMS THAT FIRE OFF IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE THE LLJ WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH AND KEEP
STORMS GOING MOST OF THE NIGHT.

BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT IN MONTANA SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LATEST NWP GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN
THE COLD FRONT A BIT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MORE STORMIER
SOLUTION FOR THE CWA AS THE FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH DURING
PEAK HEATING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL EXIT THE AREA BY MON
MORNING...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY
TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. LOOKING TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...A TROF IS STILL FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST
COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW COULD BRING AT LEAST
LOW POPS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE EARLY IN THE WEEK...RISING TO
ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH SUN
MORNING...EXPECTED FOR POCKETS OF SMOKE FROM FIREWORKS. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...WITH SCT
SHRA AND TS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER WESTERN SD. SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVER NE
WY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR CONDS LIKELY THERE. STRONG NW
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT SUN AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC



000
FXUS63 KUNR 050510
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1110 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A 1003MB SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN
MONTANA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
AND CENTRAL MONTANA...LEAVING US IN THE WARM SECTOR. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE UNR
CWA...WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 2500-3500J/KG AND NO CIN. DESPITE THE
LACK OF CIN OVER THE REGION...SATELLITE REVEALS MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...WITH ONLY AN AGITATED CU FIELD OVER THE BLACK HILLS WHERE
STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO FIRE OFF SO FAR.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD FIRE OFF
THE BLACK HILLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS FIRING OFF THE SURFACE TROUGH IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. THE CAPE AND SHEAR PARAMETERS
SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA...SO ANYTHING THAT DOES FIRE
OFF DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. STORMS SHOULD DIE
DOWN THIS EVENING AFTER THE SUN SETS JUST IN TIME FOR THE
FIREWORKS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF STORMS THAT FIRE OFF IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE THE LLJ WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH AND KEEP
STORMS GOING MOST OF THE NIGHT.

BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT IN MONTANA SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LATEST NWP GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN
THE COLD FRONT A BIT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MORE STORMIER
SOLUTION FOR THE CWA AS THE FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH DURING
PEAK HEATING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL EXIT THE AREA BY MON
MORNING...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY
TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. LOOKING TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...A TROF IS STILL FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST
COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW COULD BRING AT LEAST
LOW POPS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE EARLY IN THE WEEK...RISING TO
ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH SUN
MORNING...EXPECTED FOR POCKETS OF SMOKE FROM FIREWORKS. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...WITH SCT
SHRA AND TS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER WESTERN SD. SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVER NE
WY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR CONDS LIKELY THERE. STRONG NW
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT SUN AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC



000
FXUS63 KUNR 050510
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1110 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A 1003MB SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN
MONTANA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
AND CENTRAL MONTANA...LEAVING US IN THE WARM SECTOR. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE UNR
CWA...WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 2500-3500J/KG AND NO CIN. DESPITE THE
LACK OF CIN OVER THE REGION...SATELLITE REVEALS MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...WITH ONLY AN AGITATED CU FIELD OVER THE BLACK HILLS WHERE
STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO FIRE OFF SO FAR.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD FIRE OFF
THE BLACK HILLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS FIRING OFF THE SURFACE TROUGH IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. THE CAPE AND SHEAR PARAMETERS
SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA...SO ANYTHING THAT DOES FIRE
OFF DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. STORMS SHOULD DIE
DOWN THIS EVENING AFTER THE SUN SETS JUST IN TIME FOR THE
FIREWORKS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF STORMS THAT FIRE OFF IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE THE LLJ WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH AND KEEP
STORMS GOING MOST OF THE NIGHT.

BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT IN MONTANA SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LATEST NWP GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN
THE COLD FRONT A BIT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MORE STORMIER
SOLUTION FOR THE CWA AS THE FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH DURING
PEAK HEATING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL EXIT THE AREA BY MON
MORNING...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY
TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. LOOKING TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...A TROF IS STILL FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST
COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW COULD BRING AT LEAST
LOW POPS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE EARLY IN THE WEEK...RISING TO
ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH SUN
MORNING...EXPECTED FOR POCKETS OF SMOKE FROM FIREWORKS. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...WITH SCT
SHRA AND TS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER WESTERN SD. SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVER NE
WY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR CONDS LIKELY THERE. STRONG NW
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT SUN AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC



000
FXUS63 KUNR 050510
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1110 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A 1003MB SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN
MONTANA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
AND CENTRAL MONTANA...LEAVING US IN THE WARM SECTOR. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE UNR
CWA...WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 2500-3500J/KG AND NO CIN. DESPITE THE
LACK OF CIN OVER THE REGION...SATELLITE REVEALS MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...WITH ONLY AN AGITATED CU FIELD OVER THE BLACK HILLS WHERE
STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO FIRE OFF SO FAR.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD FIRE OFF
THE BLACK HILLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS FIRING OFF THE SURFACE TROUGH IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. THE CAPE AND SHEAR PARAMETERS
SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA...SO ANYTHING THAT DOES FIRE
OFF DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. STORMS SHOULD DIE
DOWN THIS EVENING AFTER THE SUN SETS JUST IN TIME FOR THE
FIREWORKS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF STORMS THAT FIRE OFF IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE THE LLJ WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH AND KEEP
STORMS GOING MOST OF THE NIGHT.

BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT IN MONTANA SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LATEST NWP GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN
THE COLD FRONT A BIT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MORE STORMIER
SOLUTION FOR THE CWA AS THE FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH DURING
PEAK HEATING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL EXIT THE AREA BY MON
MORNING...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY
TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. LOOKING TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...A TROF IS STILL FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST
COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW COULD BRING AT LEAST
LOW POPS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE EARLY IN THE WEEK...RISING TO
ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH SUN
MORNING...EXPECTED FOR POCKETS OF SMOKE FROM FIREWORKS. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...WITH SCT
SHRA AND TS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER WESTERN SD. SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVER NE
WY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR CONDS LIKELY THERE. STRONG NW
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT SUN AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC



000
FXUS63 KUNR 050510
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1110 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A 1003MB SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN
MONTANA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
AND CENTRAL MONTANA...LEAVING US IN THE WARM SECTOR. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE UNR
CWA...WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 2500-3500J/KG AND NO CIN. DESPITE THE
LACK OF CIN OVER THE REGION...SATELLITE REVEALS MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...WITH ONLY AN AGITATED CU FIELD OVER THE BLACK HILLS WHERE
STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO FIRE OFF SO FAR.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD FIRE OFF
THE BLACK HILLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS FIRING OFF THE SURFACE TROUGH IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. THE CAPE AND SHEAR PARAMETERS
SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA...SO ANYTHING THAT DOES FIRE
OFF DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. STORMS SHOULD DIE
DOWN THIS EVENING AFTER THE SUN SETS JUST IN TIME FOR THE
FIREWORKS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF STORMS THAT FIRE OFF IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE THE LLJ WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH AND KEEP
STORMS GOING MOST OF THE NIGHT.

BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT IN MONTANA SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LATEST NWP GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN
THE COLD FRONT A BIT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MORE STORMIER
SOLUTION FOR THE CWA AS THE FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH DURING
PEAK HEATING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL EXIT THE AREA BY MON
MORNING...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY
TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. LOOKING TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...A TROF IS STILL FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST
COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW COULD BRING AT LEAST
LOW POPS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE EARLY IN THE WEEK...RISING TO
ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH SUN
MORNING...EXPECTED FOR POCKETS OF SMOKE FROM FIREWORKS. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...WITH SCT
SHRA AND TS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER WESTERN SD. SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVER NE
WY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR CONDS LIKELY THERE. STRONG NW
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT SUN AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC



000
FXUS63 KUNR 050510
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1110 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A 1003MB SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN
MONTANA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
AND CENTRAL MONTANA...LEAVING US IN THE WARM SECTOR. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE UNR
CWA...WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 2500-3500J/KG AND NO CIN. DESPITE THE
LACK OF CIN OVER THE REGION...SATELLITE REVEALS MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...WITH ONLY AN AGITATED CU FIELD OVER THE BLACK HILLS WHERE
STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO FIRE OFF SO FAR.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD FIRE OFF
THE BLACK HILLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS FIRING OFF THE SURFACE TROUGH IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. THE CAPE AND SHEAR PARAMETERS
SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA...SO ANYTHING THAT DOES FIRE
OFF DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. STORMS SHOULD DIE
DOWN THIS EVENING AFTER THE SUN SETS JUST IN TIME FOR THE
FIREWORKS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF STORMS THAT FIRE OFF IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE THE LLJ WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH AND KEEP
STORMS GOING MOST OF THE NIGHT.

BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT IN MONTANA SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LATEST NWP GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN
THE COLD FRONT A BIT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MORE STORMIER
SOLUTION FOR THE CWA AS THE FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH DURING
PEAK HEATING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL EXIT THE AREA BY MON
MORNING...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY
TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. LOOKING TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...A TROF IS STILL FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST
COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW COULD BRING AT LEAST
LOW POPS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE EARLY IN THE WEEK...RISING TO
ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH SUN
MORNING...EXPECTED FOR POCKETS OF SMOKE FROM FIREWORKS. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...WITH SCT
SHRA AND TS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER WESTERN SD. SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVER NE
WY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR CONDS LIKELY THERE. STRONG NW
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT SUN AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC



000
FXUS65 KCYS 050411
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
543 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP FOR MAINLY AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.  A STORM TRIED TO INTENSIFY A
FEW HOURS AGO AS IT MOVED OFF THE NORTH LARAMIE RANGE TOWARD
WHEATLAND...HOWEVER IT WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY.  DO NOT BELIEVE THAT
THE STORMS WILL BE AS STRONG TODAY ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH A
DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE.  HOWEVER CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTY WINDS
WITH A VERY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE.  THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN
FOR STRONG TO SVR STORMS WILL BE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THE SFC
TROUGH ALONG THE WY-NE BORDER WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG TO THE
EAST OVER THE PANHANDLE.  BULK SHEAR IS AROUND 35 KTS...SO THERE IS
DEFINITELY SOME SVR POTENTIAL FOR STORMS INITIATING ACROSS NEBRASKA.
 THE HRRR DOES SHOW A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE PINE RIDGE AND
DAWES COUNTY BY 22Z THAT QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH
PLATTES CWA.  HAVE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE FCST FOR THE
FAR EASTERN ZONES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.  OVERALL IT SHOULD BE A
NICE EVENING OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION.

IT IS STILL LOOKING LIKE CHANCES OF RAIN WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE (CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA)
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OVER WYOMING.  THERE IS GOOD MONSOONAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND PW VALUES INCREASE TO 1.25-1.50
INCHES ACROSS THE PLAINS BY THE AFTN...WITH AROUND 1 INCH TO THE
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.  COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE AFTN.  SOUNDINGS AND INSTABILITY SUGGEST
THAT THERE COULD BE A STRONG STORM WITH SMALL HAIL...HOWEVER A BIT
MORE CONCERNED ABOUT HEAVY RAIN WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE.
STORM MOTIONS OF 20-25 KTS WILL LIKELY BE FAST ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT LOW...HOWEVER IT IS SOMETHING WE WILL HAVE TO
WATCH.  A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT
AS THE MIDLVL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
STABLE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.  TEMPS WILL BE A GOOD 15-20
DEGREES COOLER.  KEPT LOW STORM CHANCES MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE A NUMBER OF DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE FIRST WAVE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THIS WAVE
ON TUESDAY AND WILL ADVECT DEW POINTS OF LOW TO MID 50S INTO EASTERN
PLAINS. STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE SHOULD INITIATE
CONVECTION IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN THIS AREA...WITH A FEW STORMS
LOOKING TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL. BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST  TO BE IN THE
30 TO 40 KT RANGE SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STORMS
BECOME STRONG. ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH JET DIFFLUENCE INCREASING OVER WYOMING AS THE UPPER JET
STRENGTHENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHER
CHANCES OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PLAINS. WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS
QUITE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY BUT WITH THE FOCUS FOR STRONGER STORMS
LOOKING TO BE MORE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WHERE DEW POINTS
COULD SPIKE UP INTO THE UPPER 50S. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITHIN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING
ACROSS CALIFORNIA. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO WIDESPREAD 80S WITH A FEW
90S EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. SHOULD STILL SEE A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON
THURSDAY...BUT WARMER AND DRIER AIR MOVING OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY COULD
LIMIT CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 539 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR OVERNIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY...VFR PREVAILS...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING OCCASIONAL TURBULENCE AND MVFR...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE AFTER SUPPER TIME WITH STORM
STRENGTH DECREASING...AND LOCALIZED MVFR IN THE EVENING IN STRONGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 406 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  IT WILL BE
WARM ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE AREA
DURING THE EVENING AND COOLS THINGS DOWN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THERE
WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE
AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...ZF




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