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000
FXUS63 KUNR 090026
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
526 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

20Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND
RIDGE IN THE EASTERN AND WESTERN CONUS...RESPECTIVELY...WITH OUR
CWA IN STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS ARE
QUITE BREEZY ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS...WITH MANY AREAS
STILL SEEING 20 TO 30 MPH WINDS WITH 40 MPH GUSTS. SHOULD SEE
WINDS SUBSIDE SOME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES ACROSS THE CWA.

HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW APPROACHES THE REGION.
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE BLACK HILLS
REGION STARTING LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY...BUT LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS COME IN A BIT DRIER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT ITS GENERALLY UNDER FIVE THOUSAND FEET
IN DEPTH...AND THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LOOK DRY FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION TO FALL THROUGH. HAVE DECIDED TO DROP POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AND INSTEAD MENTION FLURRIES IN THE HILLS STARTING AFTER
06Z.

BY TUESDAY...A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTH
DAKOTA PLAINS. FORCING ALONG AND ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY
LOOK WEAK...BUT STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. P-TYPE COULD BE INTERESTING...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW SATURATED CONDITIONS BETWEEN 0 TO -10 C AND DRIER AIR IN THE
DGZ...WHICH WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR FZDZ/-FZRA. HOWEVER...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE
DAY TUESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP FORECAST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF
-RA/-SN FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT MIGHT NEED TO
INCLUDE THE MENTION OF FZDZ-/-FZRA IN FUTURE FORECASTS IF MODEL
GUIDANCE COMES IN WITH COOLER SURFACE TEMPS.

THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY GRADUALLY PUSHES EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY...AND NEARLY OUT OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH DRIER
AND WARMER AIR WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

AMPLIFIED ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL PERSIST IN THE PERIOD. WESTERN NOAM
POSITIVE MID LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALY WILL REMAIN CENTERED JUST WEST
OF THE REGION...WITH ACTIVE NW FLOW TO THE EAST. MID/LEVEL
IMPULSES PASSING TO THE EAST OF THE FA WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WEST IN THE REGION WITH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA COOLING
DOWN FRIDAY-SAT. A STRONGER WAVE WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE RIDGE
SUN- MON...SUPPORTING BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW OVER AREA...ESP
NE WY AND THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. HOWEVER...MILD NW FLOW LOOKS
TO PERSIST BEHIND THIS WAVE AS ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN BOTTLED TO
THE NORTH PER FLOW BLOCKING OVER CENTRAL CANADA. OVERALL...LOOK
FOR MILD CONDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WED-THUR...WITH COOLER TEMPS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF FRI-SAT BEFORE MILD WEATHER RETURNS ALL
AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. SOME MVFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER
TUESDAY...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR IN THE WEST.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...HELGESON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 090026
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
526 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

20Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND
RIDGE IN THE EASTERN AND WESTERN CONUS...RESPECTIVELY...WITH OUR
CWA IN STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS ARE
QUITE BREEZY ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS...WITH MANY AREAS
STILL SEEING 20 TO 30 MPH WINDS WITH 40 MPH GUSTS. SHOULD SEE
WINDS SUBSIDE SOME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES ACROSS THE CWA.

HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW APPROACHES THE REGION.
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE BLACK HILLS
REGION STARTING LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY...BUT LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS COME IN A BIT DRIER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT ITS GENERALLY UNDER FIVE THOUSAND FEET
IN DEPTH...AND THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LOOK DRY FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION TO FALL THROUGH. HAVE DECIDED TO DROP POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AND INSTEAD MENTION FLURRIES IN THE HILLS STARTING AFTER
06Z.

BY TUESDAY...A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTH
DAKOTA PLAINS. FORCING ALONG AND ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY
LOOK WEAK...BUT STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. P-TYPE COULD BE INTERESTING...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW SATURATED CONDITIONS BETWEEN 0 TO -10 C AND DRIER AIR IN THE
DGZ...WHICH WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR FZDZ/-FZRA. HOWEVER...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE
DAY TUESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP FORECAST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF
-RA/-SN FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT MIGHT NEED TO
INCLUDE THE MENTION OF FZDZ-/-FZRA IN FUTURE FORECASTS IF MODEL
GUIDANCE COMES IN WITH COOLER SURFACE TEMPS.

THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY GRADUALLY PUSHES EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY...AND NEARLY OUT OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH DRIER
AND WARMER AIR WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

AMPLIFIED ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL PERSIST IN THE PERIOD. WESTERN NOAM
POSITIVE MID LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALY WILL REMAIN CENTERED JUST WEST
OF THE REGION...WITH ACTIVE NW FLOW TO THE EAST. MID/LEVEL
IMPULSES PASSING TO THE EAST OF THE FA WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WEST IN THE REGION WITH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA COOLING
DOWN FRIDAY-SAT. A STRONGER WAVE WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE RIDGE
SUN- MON...SUPPORTING BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW OVER AREA...ESP
NE WY AND THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. HOWEVER...MILD NW FLOW LOOKS
TO PERSIST BEHIND THIS WAVE AS ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN BOTTLED TO
THE NORTH PER FLOW BLOCKING OVER CENTRAL CANADA. OVERALL...LOOK
FOR MILD CONDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WED-THUR...WITH COOLER TEMPS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF FRI-SAT BEFORE MILD WEATHER RETURNS ALL
AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. SOME MVFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER
TUESDAY...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR IN THE WEST.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...HELGESON



000
FXUS63 KUNR 090026
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
526 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

20Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND
RIDGE IN THE EASTERN AND WESTERN CONUS...RESPECTIVELY...WITH OUR
CWA IN STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS ARE
QUITE BREEZY ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS...WITH MANY AREAS
STILL SEEING 20 TO 30 MPH WINDS WITH 40 MPH GUSTS. SHOULD SEE
WINDS SUBSIDE SOME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES ACROSS THE CWA.

HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW APPROACHES THE REGION.
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE BLACK HILLS
REGION STARTING LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY...BUT LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS COME IN A BIT DRIER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT ITS GENERALLY UNDER FIVE THOUSAND FEET
IN DEPTH...AND THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LOOK DRY FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION TO FALL THROUGH. HAVE DECIDED TO DROP POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AND INSTEAD MENTION FLURRIES IN THE HILLS STARTING AFTER
06Z.

BY TUESDAY...A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTH
DAKOTA PLAINS. FORCING ALONG AND ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY
LOOK WEAK...BUT STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. P-TYPE COULD BE INTERESTING...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW SATURATED CONDITIONS BETWEEN 0 TO -10 C AND DRIER AIR IN THE
DGZ...WHICH WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR FZDZ/-FZRA. HOWEVER...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE
DAY TUESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP FORECAST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF
-RA/-SN FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT MIGHT NEED TO
INCLUDE THE MENTION OF FZDZ-/-FZRA IN FUTURE FORECASTS IF MODEL
GUIDANCE COMES IN WITH COOLER SURFACE TEMPS.

THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY GRADUALLY PUSHES EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY...AND NEARLY OUT OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH DRIER
AND WARMER AIR WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

AMPLIFIED ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL PERSIST IN THE PERIOD. WESTERN NOAM
POSITIVE MID LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALY WILL REMAIN CENTERED JUST WEST
OF THE REGION...WITH ACTIVE NW FLOW TO THE EAST. MID/LEVEL
IMPULSES PASSING TO THE EAST OF THE FA WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WEST IN THE REGION WITH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA COOLING
DOWN FRIDAY-SAT. A STRONGER WAVE WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE RIDGE
SUN- MON...SUPPORTING BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW OVER AREA...ESP
NE WY AND THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. HOWEVER...MILD NW FLOW LOOKS
TO PERSIST BEHIND THIS WAVE AS ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN BOTTLED TO
THE NORTH PER FLOW BLOCKING OVER CENTRAL CANADA. OVERALL...LOOK
FOR MILD CONDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WED-THUR...WITH COOLER TEMPS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF FRI-SAT BEFORE MILD WEATHER RETURNS ALL
AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. SOME MVFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER
TUESDAY...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR IN THE WEST.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...HELGESON



  [top]

000
FXUS65 KCYS 082326
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
426 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

PRETTY QUIET THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPS AND
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS.  THERE IS ENOUGH LLVL MIXING
COMBINED WITH WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC OF 30-40 KTS TO PRODUCE BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS AFTN.  THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE WITH VEDAUWOO
AND PUMPKIN VINE GUSTING TO AROUND 45 MPH.  NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO
GET MUCH STRONGER THAN THIS WITH WINDS ALOFT NOT CHANGING MUCH
THROUGH THE EVENING.  TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH WED WITH
700 MB TEMPS RISING FROM -4C THIS AFTN THROUGH 2C ON WED.  THIS
MEANS THAT HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S TO THE EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE.

500 MB RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN LOCATED NEAR THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE CWA. IT WILL BE BREEZY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE DAY.  700MB WIND DO DECREASE AROUND 10 KTS ON TUES AND
THEN FURTHER ON WED...MEANING WINDS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT WEAKER. NOT
EXPECTING ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AS THE 850 MB
CAG-CPR GRADIENT STAYS BELOW 50 METERS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER MUCH
OF THE WESTERN CONUS. NO MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS AS WE HEAD INTO THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE LIKELY PROMOTING A
CONTINUED STRETCH OF WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. BOTH THE GFS/ECM SHOW
A FAST-MOVING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWEEPING ACROSS THE CWA ON SAT OR
SUN...BUT THE MODELS DIFFER WITH TIMING WITH THE ECMWF SUGGESTING A
FROPA AROUND 06Z SUN AND THE GFS SUGGESTING CLOSER TO 00Z MON. THIS
WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE WITH TEMPERATURES AND WIND. DID NOT MAKE
MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...BUT WE MAY HAVE A MARGINAL HIGH WIND
EVENT IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE. LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW MAY ACCOMPANY THAT SYSTEM...BUT WILL LEAVE
THE FORECAST DRY GIVEN TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
FAIRLY WARM WITH 700 HPA TEMPS IN THE 0 TO +5 DEG C RANGE THRU MOST
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 424 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH GENERALLY
SCT TO BKN COVERAGE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD. GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY
TO RETURN TO PARTS OF THE AREA ON TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK DUE TO A
SURFACE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE AREA AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT. BREEZY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...ZF




000
FXUS65 KCYS 082326
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
426 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

PRETTY QUIET THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPS AND
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS.  THERE IS ENOUGH LLVL MIXING
COMBINED WITH WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC OF 30-40 KTS TO PRODUCE BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS AFTN.  THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE WITH VEDAUWOO
AND PUMPKIN VINE GUSTING TO AROUND 45 MPH.  NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO
GET MUCH STRONGER THAN THIS WITH WINDS ALOFT NOT CHANGING MUCH
THROUGH THE EVENING.  TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH WED WITH
700 MB TEMPS RISING FROM -4C THIS AFTN THROUGH 2C ON WED.  THIS
MEANS THAT HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S TO THE EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE.

500 MB RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN LOCATED NEAR THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE CWA. IT WILL BE BREEZY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE DAY.  700MB WIND DO DECREASE AROUND 10 KTS ON TUES AND
THEN FURTHER ON WED...MEANING WINDS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT WEAKER. NOT
EXPECTING ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AS THE 850 MB
CAG-CPR GRADIENT STAYS BELOW 50 METERS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER MUCH
OF THE WESTERN CONUS. NO MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS AS WE HEAD INTO THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE LIKELY PROMOTING A
CONTINUED STRETCH OF WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. BOTH THE GFS/ECM SHOW
A FAST-MOVING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWEEPING ACROSS THE CWA ON SAT OR
SUN...BUT THE MODELS DIFFER WITH TIMING WITH THE ECMWF SUGGESTING A
FROPA AROUND 06Z SUN AND THE GFS SUGGESTING CLOSER TO 00Z MON. THIS
WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE WITH TEMPERATURES AND WIND. DID NOT MAKE
MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...BUT WE MAY HAVE A MARGINAL HIGH WIND
EVENT IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE. LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW MAY ACCOMPANY THAT SYSTEM...BUT WILL LEAVE
THE FORECAST DRY GIVEN TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
FAIRLY WARM WITH 700 HPA TEMPS IN THE 0 TO +5 DEG C RANGE THRU MOST
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 424 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH GENERALLY
SCT TO BKN COVERAGE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD. GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY
TO RETURN TO PARTS OF THE AREA ON TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK DUE TO A
SURFACE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE AREA AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT. BREEZY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...ZF




000
FXUS65 KCYS 082215
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
315 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

PRETTY QUIET THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPS AND
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS.  THERE IS ENOUGH LLVL MIXING
COMBINED WITH WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC OF 30-40 KTS TO PRODUCE BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS AFTN.  THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE WITH VEDAUWOO
AND PUMPKIN VINE GUSTING TO AROUND 45 MPH.  NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO
GET MUCH STRONGER THAN THIS WITH WINDS ALOFT NOT CHANGING MUCH
THROUGH THE EVENING.  TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH WED WITH
700 MB TEMPS RISING FROM -4C THIS AFTN THROUGH 2C ON WED.  THIS
MEANS THAT HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S TO THE EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE.

500 MB RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN LOCATED NEAR THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE CWA. IT WILL BE BREEZY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE DAY.  700MB WIND DO DECREASE AROUND 10 KTS ON TUES AND
THEN FURTHER ON WED...MEANING WINDS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT WEAKER. NOT
EXPECTING ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AS THE 850 MB
CAG-CPR GRADIENT STAYS BELOW 50 METERS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER MUCH
OF THE WESTERN CONUS. NO MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS AS WE HEAD INTO THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE LIKELY PROMOTING A
CONTINUED STRETCH OF WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. BOTH THE GFS/ECM SHOW
A FAST-MOVING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWEEPING ACROSS THE CWA ON SAT OR
SUN...BUT THE MODELS DIFFER WITH TIMING WITH THE ECMWF SUGGESTING A
FROPA AROUND 06Z SUN AND THE GFS SUGGESTING CLOSER TO 00Z MON. THIS
WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE WITH TEMPERATURES AND WIND. DID NOT MAKE
MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...BUT WE MAY HAVE A MARGINAL HIGH WIND
EVENT IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE. LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW MAY ACCOMPANY THAT SYSTEM...BUT WILL LEAVE
THE FORECAST DRY GIVEN TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
FAIRLY WARM WITH 700 HPA TEMPS IN THE 0 TO +5 DEG C RANGE THRU MOST
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH GENERALLY
SCT TO BKN COVERAGE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST WYO
TERMINALS WHERE A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KTS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK DUE TO A
SURFACE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE AREA AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT. BREEZY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...ZF




000
FXUS65 KCYS 082215
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
315 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

PRETTY QUIET THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPS AND
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS.  THERE IS ENOUGH LLVL MIXING
COMBINED WITH WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC OF 30-40 KTS TO PRODUCE BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS AFTN.  THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE WITH VEDAUWOO
AND PUMPKIN VINE GUSTING TO AROUND 45 MPH.  NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO
GET MUCH STRONGER THAN THIS WITH WINDS ALOFT NOT CHANGING MUCH
THROUGH THE EVENING.  TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH WED WITH
700 MB TEMPS RISING FROM -4C THIS AFTN THROUGH 2C ON WED.  THIS
MEANS THAT HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S TO THE EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE.

500 MB RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN LOCATED NEAR THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE CWA. IT WILL BE BREEZY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE DAY.  700MB WIND DO DECREASE AROUND 10 KTS ON TUES AND
THEN FURTHER ON WED...MEANING WINDS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT WEAKER. NOT
EXPECTING ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AS THE 850 MB
CAG-CPR GRADIENT STAYS BELOW 50 METERS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER MUCH
OF THE WESTERN CONUS. NO MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS AS WE HEAD INTO THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE LIKELY PROMOTING A
CONTINUED STRETCH OF WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. BOTH THE GFS/ECM SHOW
A FAST-MOVING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWEEPING ACROSS THE CWA ON SAT OR
SUN...BUT THE MODELS DIFFER WITH TIMING WITH THE ECMWF SUGGESTING A
FROPA AROUND 06Z SUN AND THE GFS SUGGESTING CLOSER TO 00Z MON. THIS
WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE WITH TEMPERATURES AND WIND. DID NOT MAKE
MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...BUT WE MAY HAVE A MARGINAL HIGH WIND
EVENT IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE. LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW MAY ACCOMPANY THAT SYSTEM...BUT WILL LEAVE
THE FORECAST DRY GIVEN TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
FAIRLY WARM WITH 700 HPA TEMPS IN THE 0 TO +5 DEG C RANGE THRU MOST
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH GENERALLY
SCT TO BKN COVERAGE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST WYO
TERMINALS WHERE A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KTS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK DUE TO A
SURFACE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE AREA AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT. BREEZY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...ZF




000
FXUS65 KCYS 082215
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
315 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

PRETTY QUIET THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPS AND
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS.  THERE IS ENOUGH LLVL MIXING
COMBINED WITH WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC OF 30-40 KTS TO PRODUCE BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS AFTN.  THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE WITH VEDAUWOO
AND PUMPKIN VINE GUSTING TO AROUND 45 MPH.  NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO
GET MUCH STRONGER THAN THIS WITH WINDS ALOFT NOT CHANGING MUCH
THROUGH THE EVENING.  TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH WED WITH
700 MB TEMPS RISING FROM -4C THIS AFTN THROUGH 2C ON WED.  THIS
MEANS THAT HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S TO THE EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE.

500 MB RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN LOCATED NEAR THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE CWA. IT WILL BE BREEZY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE DAY.  700MB WIND DO DECREASE AROUND 10 KTS ON TUES AND
THEN FURTHER ON WED...MEANING WINDS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT WEAKER. NOT
EXPECTING ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AS THE 850 MB
CAG-CPR GRADIENT STAYS BELOW 50 METERS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER MUCH
OF THE WESTERN CONUS. NO MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS AS WE HEAD INTO THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE LIKELY PROMOTING A
CONTINUED STRETCH OF WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. BOTH THE GFS/ECM SHOW
A FAST-MOVING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWEEPING ACROSS THE CWA ON SAT OR
SUN...BUT THE MODELS DIFFER WITH TIMING WITH THE ECMWF SUGGESTING A
FROPA AROUND 06Z SUN AND THE GFS SUGGESTING CLOSER TO 00Z MON. THIS
WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE WITH TEMPERATURES AND WIND. DID NOT MAKE
MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...BUT WE MAY HAVE A MARGINAL HIGH WIND
EVENT IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE. LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW MAY ACCOMPANY THAT SYSTEM...BUT WILL LEAVE
THE FORECAST DRY GIVEN TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
FAIRLY WARM WITH 700 HPA TEMPS IN THE 0 TO +5 DEG C RANGE THRU MOST
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH GENERALLY
SCT TO BKN COVERAGE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST WYO
TERMINALS WHERE A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KTS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK DUE TO A
SURFACE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE AREA AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT. BREEZY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...ZF



000
FXUS63 KUNR 082130
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
230 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

20Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND
RIDGE IN THE EASTERN AND WESTERN CONUS...RESPECTIVELY...WITH OUR
CWA IN STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS ARE
QUITE BREEZY ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS...WITH MANY AREAS
STILL SEEING 20 TO 30 MPH WINDS WITH 40 MPH GUSTS. SHOULD SEE
WINDS SUBSIDE SOME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES ACROSS THE CWA.

HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW APPROACHES THE REGION.
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE BLACK HILLS
REGION STARTING LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY...BUT LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS COME IN A BIT DRIER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT ITS GENERALLY UNDER FIVE THOUSAND FEET
IN DEPTH...AND THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LOOK DRY FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION TO FALL THROUGH. HAVE DECIDED TO DROP POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AND INSTEAD MENTION FLURRIES IN THE HILLS STARTING AFTER
06Z.

BY TUESDAY...A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTH
DAKOTA PLAINS. FORCING ALONG AND ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY
LOOK WEAK...BUT STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. P-TYPE COULD BE INTERESTING...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW SATURATED CONDITIONS BETWEEN 0 TO -10 C AND DRIER AIR IN THE
DGZ...WHICH WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR FZDZ/-FZRA. HOWEVER...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE
DAY TUESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP FORECAST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF
-RA/-SN FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT MIGHT NEED TO
INCLUDE THE MENTION OF FZDZ-/-FZRA IN FUTURE FORECASTS IF MODEL
GUIDANCE COMES IN WITH COOLER SURFACE TEMPS.

THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY GRADUALLY PUSHES EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY...AND NEARLY OUT OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH DRIER
AND WARMER AIR WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

AMPLIFIED ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL PERSIST IN THE PERIOD. WESTERN NOAM
POSITIVE MID LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALY WILL REMAIN CENTERED JUST WEST
OF THE REGION...WITH ACTIVE NW FLOW TO THE EAST. MID/LEVEL
IMPULSES PASSING TO THE EAST OF THE FA WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WEST IN THE REGION WITH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA COOLING
DOWN FRIDAY-SAT. A STRONGER WAVE WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE RIDGE
SUN- MON...SUPPORTING BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW OVER AREA...ESP
NE WY AND THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. HOWEVER...MILD NW FLOW LOOKS
TO PERSIST BEHIND THIS WAVE AS ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN BOTTLED TO
THE NORTH PER FLOW BLOCKING OVER CENTRAL CANADA. OVERALL...LOOK
FOR MILD CONDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WED-THUR...WITH COOLER TEMPS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF FRI-SAT BEFORE MILD WEATHER RETURNS ALL
AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY NW WINDS UP TO
35KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...PRIMARILY ON THE SD PLAINS. SOME
WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED ON THE WY PLAINS THIS EVENING AS STRONG
FLOW REMAINS ABOVE THE SFC.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC



  [top]

000
FXUS65 KRIW 082106
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
206 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

IMAGERY SHOWS AMPLIFIED RIDGE/TROF PATTERN WEST TO E ACROSS THE
CONUS...WITH WY UNDER NW FLOW. SFC HAS HIGH P ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
INTO WRN WY WITH LOWERING P TO THE E SUPPORTING A MODEST P GRAD AND
SOME BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS OVR THE WIND CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE...ONLY
A FEW MID/UPR CLOUDS ACROSS THE FA.

RATHER STATIC PATTERN THRU THE SHORT TERM WITH MOSTLY DRY UPR LVL
RIDGING REMAINING IN CONTROL OF THE WRN CONUS AND THE FA REMAINING
UNDER STEEP NW FLOW. FEW TO SCATTERED AREAS OF MID/UPR CLOUD RING
THE OUTSIDE OF THE CWA WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUD OVR THE INTERIOR.
HOWEVER...EVEN THESE CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE THRU THE FCST
PERIOD. WITH DECENT DAYTIME WARMING MELTING SNOW...OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNINGS ACROSS THE SOME AREAS MAY ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG FORMATION IF
LOW UPR LVL FLOW QUIETS/LIFTS ENOUGH TO KEEP TURBULENCE ALOFT FROM
INFLUENCING THE SFC. BEST BESTS FOR PATCHY FOG WILL BE IN THE WRN
VALLEYS AND THE WIND RIVER BASIN...WITH SOMEWHAT LESSER CHANCES OVR
THE OTHER BASINS. BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...PORTIONS OF THE UPPER GREEN BASIN...AND THE
WIND CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...NO HIGHLIGHTS ARE EXPECTED AS CRITICAL
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS FOR HIGH WIND WILL NOT BE MET AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT WARMING SEASONAL HIGHS AND LOWS AND NO PRECIP.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY A WARM RIDGE
WITH BASIN AND VALLEY INVERSIONS HOLDING IN MOST AREAS BUT EVEN
GRADUAL WARMING IS EXPECTED IN THESE LOCATIONS. A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY BRINGING
CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE WEST AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE ONLY POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER WILL BE EARLY WEDNESDAY
WHEN GAP FLOW SETS UP ALONG THE ABSAROKAS...THERE COULD BE SOME 60
MPH WIND GUSTS NEAR CLARK AND WEST OF CODY...NOT SURE IT WILL BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A HIGH WIND WARNING BUT IT WILL BE WATCHED
CLOSELY NONETHELESS. AS A LEE TROUGH DIPS EAST OF THE DIVIDE...THE
WIND WILL ALSO PICK UP BETWEEN THE RED DESERT AND CASPER. WHILE IT
WILL BE WINDY...IT WILL ALSO BE WARMER...WITH MILD AIR POSSIBLY
MIXING DOWN FOR RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN THE 50S AND
POSSIBLY 60 NEAR CASPER...CODY...CROWHEART AND BUFFALO WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF SNOW ON THE GROUND AT CASPER
HOWEVER...THAT MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN AT OR BELOW 50 DEGREES.

A SHORTWAVE TOPPING THE RIDGE AND DIVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON THURSDAY WILL PROVIDE BETTER MIXING ACROSS THE LOWER CENTRAL
BASINS WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION IN THE
MID-LEVELS. IT WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION
HOWEVER IT COULD HAVE A POSITIVE AFFECT ON BASIN AND VALLEY
INVERSIONS...ALLOWING THEM TO ERODE A BIT...SO IT WILL TAKE A COLD
FRONT TO WARM UP THE VALLEYS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM OF NOTE MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THERE
IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SPLITTING
TROUGH BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT GIVEN ITS
CURRENT TRACK AND STRENGTH. IT WILL LIKELY JUST MUSTER SOME
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AND SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
GUSTY WIND EAST OF THE DIVIDE. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES QUICKLY
REBOUND ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN
CONCERN THIS EVENING WILL BE MARGINAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR NEAR
MOUNTAINS AND MOUNTAIN TURBULENCE DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
SOME PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY OVER
THE FAR WESTERN VALLEYS...AND PERHAPS OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN WIND
RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING. HAVE INSERTED VCFG INTO THE
KJAC AND KRIW TERMINAL SITES FOR LATE TONIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP IT OUT
OF THE UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN DUE TO THE EXPECTED CONTINUATION OF
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS IN THAT AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

FIRE DANGER REMAINS LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK...WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND SNOW COVERING MANY SURFACES.
WINDS...HOWEVER...WILL BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ACROSS THE USUAL WIND PRONE AREA OF CENTRAL WYOMING.
WEDNESDAY...AREAS IN AND ADJACENT TO THE ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS COULD
SEE NEAR HIGH WIND CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
OTHERWISE...MOST LATE MORNINGS AND AFTERNOONS ACROSS WYOMING SHOULD
SEE GOOD SMOKE DISPERSION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAUN
LONG TERM...ALLEN
AVIATION...BRAUN
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN




000
FXUS65 KCYS 081818
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1118 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER BREEZY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT AS THE 700 MB GRADIENT REMAINS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MTRS
WITH THE JET STREAM OVERHEAD. EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS TO BE
OVER THE NORTH SNOWY RANGE FOOTHILLS INCLUDING ARLINGTON/ELK
MOUNTAIN AND THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE WHERE 40 TO 50 MPH GUSTS
ARE LIKELY. GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH OR HIGHER ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE...
INCLUDING OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.

FOR TODAY...NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH CHANGE IN WINDS FROM CURRENT
CONDITIONS...WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THE UPWARD TREND AS A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST AND H7 TEMPS OVERHEAD
WARM TO BETWEEN -4 TO -6. THINK A FEW HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE PLAINS
WILL BREAK THE 40 DEGREE MARK...ALTHOUGH SNOW COVER WILL OBVIOUSLY
KEEP TEMPS FROM SPIKING TOO HIGH. OVERALL...WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER
30S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS PEAKING IN THE LOW 40S ARE A GOOD BET.

TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL INCREASE FURTHER AS READINGS AT
H7 RISE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO BY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LOW
TO MID 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY AS A RESULT. SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT PROGS THROUGH THIS TIME WILL REMAIN ROUGHLY IN
THE 30 MTR RANGE...THUS BREEZY WINDS WILL PERSIST AT LEAST IN THE
WIND PRONE AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE MOISTURE MOVING
OVERHEAD. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR STRATUS AND PERHAPS SOME
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FOG IN THE HIGH VALLEYS OUT WEST OVERNIGHT
THOUGH AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE PROGS ARE HIGH WHILE WINDS
WEAKEN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

THE PATTERN ACROSS THE COUNTRY WILL FEATURE A GENERAL LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGING OVER THE WEST. THE CWA
WILL RESIDE UNDER NWLY FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE A
SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH THE SHORTWAVE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND COULD BRING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY SO MAY EVENTUALLY
NEED SOME POPS FOR THAT TIME. OTHERWISE MILD TEMPS EXPECTED
OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. A
PRETTY GOOD SURGE OF COLD AIR LOOKS TO DROP OUT OF THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES FRIDAY BUT THE BULK OF THE COLDER AIR WILL PASS EAST OF
THE CWA...WITH JUST THE WESTERN PERIPHERY BACKING UP AGAINST THE
MTNS FRIDAY THEN RETREATING BACK EAST SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH GENERALLY
SCT TO BKN COVERAGE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST WYO
TERMINALS WHERE A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KTS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 250 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY IN THE
WEEK DUE TO A SURFACE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE AREA AND HIGH RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...BUT MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT. BREEZY
WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DISTRICT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...RJM



000
FXUS65 KCYS 081818
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1118 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER BREEZY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT AS THE 700 MB GRADIENT REMAINS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MTRS
WITH THE JET STREAM OVERHEAD. EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS TO BE
OVER THE NORTH SNOWY RANGE FOOTHILLS INCLUDING ARLINGTON/ELK
MOUNTAIN AND THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE WHERE 40 TO 50 MPH GUSTS
ARE LIKELY. GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH OR HIGHER ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE...
INCLUDING OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.

FOR TODAY...NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH CHANGE IN WINDS FROM CURRENT
CONDITIONS...WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THE UPWARD TREND AS A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST AND H7 TEMPS OVERHEAD
WARM TO BETWEEN -4 TO -6. THINK A FEW HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE PLAINS
WILL BREAK THE 40 DEGREE MARK...ALTHOUGH SNOW COVER WILL OBVIOUSLY
KEEP TEMPS FROM SPIKING TOO HIGH. OVERALL...WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER
30S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS PEAKING IN THE LOW 40S ARE A GOOD BET.

TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL INCREASE FURTHER AS READINGS AT
H7 RISE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO BY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LOW
TO MID 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY AS A RESULT. SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT PROGS THROUGH THIS TIME WILL REMAIN ROUGHLY IN
THE 30 MTR RANGE...THUS BREEZY WINDS WILL PERSIST AT LEAST IN THE
WIND PRONE AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE MOISTURE MOVING
OVERHEAD. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR STRATUS AND PERHAPS SOME
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FOG IN THE HIGH VALLEYS OUT WEST OVERNIGHT
THOUGH AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE PROGS ARE HIGH WHILE WINDS
WEAKEN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

THE PATTERN ACROSS THE COUNTRY WILL FEATURE A GENERAL LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGING OVER THE WEST. THE CWA
WILL RESIDE UNDER NWLY FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE A
SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH THE SHORTWAVE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND COULD BRING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY SO MAY EVENTUALLY
NEED SOME POPS FOR THAT TIME. OTHERWISE MILD TEMPS EXPECTED
OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. A
PRETTY GOOD SURGE OF COLD AIR LOOKS TO DROP OUT OF THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES FRIDAY BUT THE BULK OF THE COLDER AIR WILL PASS EAST OF
THE CWA...WITH JUST THE WESTERN PERIPHERY BACKING UP AGAINST THE
MTNS FRIDAY THEN RETREATING BACK EAST SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH GENERALLY
SCT TO BKN COVERAGE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST WYO
TERMINALS WHERE A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KTS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 250 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY IN THE
WEEK DUE TO A SURFACE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE AREA AND HIGH RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...BUT MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT. BREEZY
WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DISTRICT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...RJM




000
FXUS65 KCYS 081818
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1118 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER BREEZY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT AS THE 700 MB GRADIENT REMAINS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MTRS
WITH THE JET STREAM OVERHEAD. EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS TO BE
OVER THE NORTH SNOWY RANGE FOOTHILLS INCLUDING ARLINGTON/ELK
MOUNTAIN AND THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE WHERE 40 TO 50 MPH GUSTS
ARE LIKELY. GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH OR HIGHER ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE...
INCLUDING OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.

FOR TODAY...NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH CHANGE IN WINDS FROM CURRENT
CONDITIONS...WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THE UPWARD TREND AS A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST AND H7 TEMPS OVERHEAD
WARM TO BETWEEN -4 TO -6. THINK A FEW HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE PLAINS
WILL BREAK THE 40 DEGREE MARK...ALTHOUGH SNOW COVER WILL OBVIOUSLY
KEEP TEMPS FROM SPIKING TOO HIGH. OVERALL...WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER
30S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS PEAKING IN THE LOW 40S ARE A GOOD BET.

TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL INCREASE FURTHER AS READINGS AT
H7 RISE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO BY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LOW
TO MID 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY AS A RESULT. SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT PROGS THROUGH THIS TIME WILL REMAIN ROUGHLY IN
THE 30 MTR RANGE...THUS BREEZY WINDS WILL PERSIST AT LEAST IN THE
WIND PRONE AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE MOISTURE MOVING
OVERHEAD. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR STRATUS AND PERHAPS SOME
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FOG IN THE HIGH VALLEYS OUT WEST OVERNIGHT
THOUGH AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE PROGS ARE HIGH WHILE WINDS
WEAKEN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

THE PATTERN ACROSS THE COUNTRY WILL FEATURE A GENERAL LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGING OVER THE WEST. THE CWA
WILL RESIDE UNDER NWLY FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE A
SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH THE SHORTWAVE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND COULD BRING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY SO MAY EVENTUALLY
NEED SOME POPS FOR THAT TIME. OTHERWISE MILD TEMPS EXPECTED
OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. A
PRETTY GOOD SURGE OF COLD AIR LOOKS TO DROP OUT OF THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES FRIDAY BUT THE BULK OF THE COLDER AIR WILL PASS EAST OF
THE CWA...WITH JUST THE WESTERN PERIPHERY BACKING UP AGAINST THE
MTNS FRIDAY THEN RETREATING BACK EAST SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH GENERALLY
SCT TO BKN COVERAGE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST WYO
TERMINALS WHERE A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KTS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 250 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY IN THE
WEEK DUE TO A SURFACE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE AREA AND HIGH RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...BUT MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT. BREEZY
WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DISTRICT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...RJM




000
FXUS63 KUNR 081733
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1033 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 219 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

UPPER LOW SPINS OVER WISCONSIN...WITH STRONG RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE WEST COAST...AND FAST NORTHWEST FLOW IN BETWEEN. STILL A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA. WINDS HAVE
DECREASED BUT STILL REMAIN BREEZY AT 20-30 KTS. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...TEMPS ARE IN THE 20S.

REGION WILL STAY UNDER STRONG NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW EARLY THIS WEEK.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 KTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SD
PLAINS TODAY...STRONGEST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE LOW-END
ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE MET. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER
40S...UNDER INCREASINGLY CLOUDY SKIES.

ON TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TRANSITIONING EASTWARD...AND WARMER
AIR WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST. BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL SD...AND AS SOME MIDLEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK UPPER
ENERGY MOVE OVER THE REGION...MAY BE A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT.
MAY ALSO BE SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN HILLS.
OVERALL THESE AREAS MAY SEE AN INCH OF SNOW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD
TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 219 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

VERY MILD TEMPS EXPECTED ON WED AS THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO OUR WRN ZONES AND W/NW BL FLOW (DOWNSLOPE) PREVAILS. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE FAST NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CROSS THE
NRN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND PUSH A BACKDOOR CDFNT INTO THE CWFA. SOME
LIGHT PCPN POSSIBLE WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BUT NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT ANTICIPATED. THIS COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO A WIDE RANGE
OF TEMPS FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND DEPENDENT ON
HOW FAR WEST THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENDS UP. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL CROSS THE NRN PLAINS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND COULD BRING
SOME LIGHT PCPN TO OUR FAR WRN ZONES...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED. TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1032 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY NW
WINDS UP TO 35KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...PRIMARILY ON THE SD
PLAINS. SOME WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED ON THE WY PLAINS THIS EVENING
AS STRONG FLOW REMAINS ABOVE THE SFC.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC




000
FXUS65 KRIW 081700
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1000 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

NW WINDS HAVE BEEN BLOWING FAIRLY STEADILY ACROSS THE UPPER
WIND RIVER BASIN FROM CROWHEART TO DUBOIS AS WELL AS IN THE VCNTY
OF PINEDALE IN RESPONSE TO THE RELATIVELY TIGHT SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT PRODUCED BY THE SFC HIGH CONTINUING TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST. THE HEART OF THE WIND RIVER AND UPPER GREEN RIVER BASINS
ARE NO LONGER MIXED WITH LIGHT OR CALM WINDS. CURRENTLY IT IS 10
DEGREES 2 MILES SOUTH OF RIVERTON AND 37 IN CROWHEART AS
INVERSIONS REESTABLISH THEMSELVES AMONGST SNOW COVER. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL RETURN FROM RKS TO CPR TODAY AS A SFC LEE SIDE TROUGH
BEGINS TO DEVELOP. WITH TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS STRENGTHENING BY
12Z TUESDAY AND DRY AIR JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...BASINS AND
VALLEYS THAT STILL MAINTAIN SNOWCOVER WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHY FOG
LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS WELL AS LATE TUE NT AND WED
MORNING. TEMPS WILL WARM THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
BASINS AND VALLEYS LAGGING A DAY OR SO BEHIND AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND 60S ARE NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES FOR MIXED AREAS
LIKE CPR AND BYG RESPECTIVELY EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY WED AFTERNOON.
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RETURN FROM THE RED DESERT TO CPR
WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
OVER MOST OF THE AREA. INVERSIONS WILL LIKELY HOLD BUT WEAKEN OVER
COLDER FAR WEST VALLEYS. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE WEST
AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...ECMWF AND GFS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA.  DIFFERENCES ARISE WITH THE NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH SPLITTING ALONG THE WEST COAST ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

SHORTWAVE TOPPING THE RIDGE AND DIVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
THURSDAY WILL PROVIDE BETTER MIXING ACROSS THE LOWER CENTRAL BASINS
WITH INCREASING NW WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION IN THE MID-LEVELS.  ONLY
THE NORTHERN BIGHORN RANGE MAY RECEIVE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WITH THIS CLIPPER. TEMPERATURES IN THE FAR WEST VALLEYS THAT MAY
BE TRAPPED UNDER STEEP INVERSIONS IN THE SHORT-TERM COULD MODERATE
AS WELL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION LIKELY BRINGING
SOME BKN-OVC STRATUS DECKS INTO THE AREA.

BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A GREATER DEGREE OF SPLITTING WITH NEXT
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC FRIDAY.  ECMWF
CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE GFS DAMPENS OUT THE NORTHERN STREAM TO
A MUCH GREATER DEGREE.  GFS SOLUTION KEEP WYOMING DRY WITH A MUCH
WEAKER FRONTAL PASSAGE.  ECMWF HAS SHOWN BETTER RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY WITH ITS STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE.  NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
GOING FORECAST THAT IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF WITH INCREASING
CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST AND FAR NORTH WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. ONLY SLIGHT COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY WITH
BREEZY TO WINDY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN
CONCERN TODAY WILL BE MARGINAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR NEAR MOUNTAINS
AND MOUNTAIN TURBULENCE DUE TO THE STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW
ALOFT. SOME PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT REMAINS A POSSIBILITY
OVER THE FAR WESTERN VALLEYS...AND PERHAPS OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
WIND RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. WILL INSERT VCFG INTO THE KJAC AND KRIW
TERMINAL SITES FOR LATE TONIGHT...BUT KEEP IT OUT OF THE UPPER GREEN
RIVER BASIN DUE TO THE EXPECTED CONTINUATION OF BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS IN THAT AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE WEATHER STORY FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. SOME GUSTY WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOONS...WITH
OTHERWISE QUIET CONDITIONS. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH
THIS TIME RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD POOR SMOKE DISPERSION. THE
MAIN EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AT SOME FAVORED FOOTHILL LOCATIONS AS WELL
AS FROM ROCK SPRINGS TO CASPER WHICH MAY SEE PERIODS OF FAIR
SMOKE DISPERSAL WITH THE PRESENCE OF GUSTY WIND.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...JB
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON




000
FXUS65 KRIW 081700
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1000 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

NW WINDS HAVE BEEN BLOWING FAIRLY STEADILY ACROSS THE UPPER
WIND RIVER BASIN FROM CROWHEART TO DUBOIS AS WELL AS IN THE VCNTY
OF PINEDALE IN RESPONSE TO THE RELATIVELY TIGHT SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT PRODUCED BY THE SFC HIGH CONTINUING TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST. THE HEART OF THE WIND RIVER AND UPPER GREEN RIVER BASINS
ARE NO LONGER MIXED WITH LIGHT OR CALM WINDS. CURRENTLY IT IS 10
DEGREES 2 MILES SOUTH OF RIVERTON AND 37 IN CROWHEART AS
INVERSIONS REESTABLISH THEMSELVES AMONGST SNOW COVER. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL RETURN FROM RKS TO CPR TODAY AS A SFC LEE SIDE TROUGH
BEGINS TO DEVELOP. WITH TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS STRENGTHENING BY
12Z TUESDAY AND DRY AIR JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...BASINS AND
VALLEYS THAT STILL MAINTAIN SNOWCOVER WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHY FOG
LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS WELL AS LATE TUE NT AND WED
MORNING. TEMPS WILL WARM THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
BASINS AND VALLEYS LAGGING A DAY OR SO BEHIND AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND 60S ARE NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES FOR MIXED AREAS
LIKE CPR AND BYG RESPECTIVELY EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY WED AFTERNOON.
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RETURN FROM THE RED DESERT TO CPR
WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
OVER MOST OF THE AREA. INVERSIONS WILL LIKELY HOLD BUT WEAKEN OVER
COLDER FAR WEST VALLEYS. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE WEST
AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...ECMWF AND GFS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA.  DIFFERENCES ARISE WITH THE NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH SPLITTING ALONG THE WEST COAST ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

SHORTWAVE TOPPING THE RIDGE AND DIVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
THURSDAY WILL PROVIDE BETTER MIXING ACROSS THE LOWER CENTRAL BASINS
WITH INCREASING NW WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION IN THE MID-LEVELS.  ONLY
THE NORTHERN BIGHORN RANGE MAY RECEIVE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WITH THIS CLIPPER. TEMPERATURES IN THE FAR WEST VALLEYS THAT MAY
BE TRAPPED UNDER STEEP INVERSIONS IN THE SHORT-TERM COULD MODERATE
AS WELL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION LIKELY BRINGING
SOME BKN-OVC STRATUS DECKS INTO THE AREA.

BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A GREATER DEGREE OF SPLITTING WITH NEXT
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC FRIDAY.  ECMWF
CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE GFS DAMPENS OUT THE NORTHERN STREAM TO
A MUCH GREATER DEGREE.  GFS SOLUTION KEEP WYOMING DRY WITH A MUCH
WEAKER FRONTAL PASSAGE.  ECMWF HAS SHOWN BETTER RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY WITH ITS STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE.  NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
GOING FORECAST THAT IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF WITH INCREASING
CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST AND FAR NORTH WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. ONLY SLIGHT COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY WITH
BREEZY TO WINDY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN
CONCERN TODAY WILL BE MARGINAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR NEAR MOUNTAINS
AND MOUNTAIN TURBULENCE DUE TO THE STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW
ALOFT. SOME PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT REMAINS A POSSIBILITY
OVER THE FAR WESTERN VALLEYS...AND PERHAPS OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
WIND RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. WILL INSERT VCFG INTO THE KJAC AND KRIW
TERMINAL SITES FOR LATE TONIGHT...BUT KEEP IT OUT OF THE UPPER GREEN
RIVER BASIN DUE TO THE EXPECTED CONTINUATION OF BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS IN THAT AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE WEATHER STORY FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. SOME GUSTY WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOONS...WITH
OTHERWISE QUIET CONDITIONS. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH
THIS TIME RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD POOR SMOKE DISPERSION. THE
MAIN EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AT SOME FAVORED FOOTHILL LOCATIONS AS WELL
AS FROM ROCK SPRINGS TO CASPER WHICH MAY SEE PERIODS OF FAIR
SMOKE DISPERSAL WITH THE PRESENCE OF GUSTY WIND.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...JB
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON



000
FXUS65 KCYS 080950
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
250 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER BREEZY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT AS THE 700 MB GRADIENT REMAINS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MTRS
WITH THE JET STREAM OVERHEAD. EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS TO BE
OVER THE NORTH SNOWY RANGE FOOTHILLS INCLUDING ARLINGTON/ELK
MOUNTAIN AND THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE WHERE 40 TO 50 MPH GUSTS
ARE LIKELY. GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH OR HIGHER ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE...
INCLUDING OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.

FOR TODAY...NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH CHANGE IN WINDS FROM CURRENT
CONDITIONS...WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THE UPWARD TREND AS A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST AND H7 TEMPS OVERHEAD
WARM TO BETWEEN -4 TO -6. THINK A FEW HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE PLAINS
WILL BREAK THE 40 DEGREE MARK...ALTHOUGH SNOW COVER WILL OBVIOUSLY
KEEP TEMPS FROM SPIKING TOO HIGH. OVERALL...WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER
30S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS PEAKING IN THE LOW 40S ARE A GOOD BET.

TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL INCREASE FURTHER AS READINGS AT
H7 RISE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO BY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LOW
TO MID 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY AS A RESULT. SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT PROGS THROUGH THIS TIME WILL REMAIN ROUGHLY IN
THE 30 MTR RANGE...THUS BREEZY WINDS WILL PERSIST AT LEAST IN THE
WIND PRONE AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE MOISTURE MOVING
OVERHEAD. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR STRATUS AND PERHAPS SOME
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FOG IN THE HIGH VALLEYS OUT WEST OVERNIGHT
THOUGH AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE PROGS ARE HIGH WHILE WINDS
WEAKEN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

THE PATTERN ACROSS THE COUNTRY WILL FEATURE A GENERAL LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGING OVER THE WEST. THE CWA
WILL RESIDE UNDER NWLY FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE A
SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH THE SHORTWAVE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND COULD BRING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY SO MAY EVENTUALLY
NEED SOME POPS FOR THAT TIME. OTHERWISE MILD TEMPS EXPECTED
OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. A
PRETTY GOOD SURGE OF COLD AIR LOOKS TO DROP OUT OF THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES FRIDAY BUT THE BULK OF THE COLDER AIR WILL PASS EAST OF
THE CWA...WITH JUST THE WESTERN PERIPHERY BACKING UP AGAINST THE
MTNS FRIDAY THEN RETREATING BACK EAST SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH JUST SOME MID
LEVEL CIGS AFFECTING SOME OF THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING. SOME
GUSTY NW WINDS AFFECTING KRWL TO KCYS TODAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 250 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY IN THE
WEEK DUE TO A SURFACE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE AREA AND HIGH RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...BUT MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT. BREEZY
WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DISTRICT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...RJM




000
FXUS65 KRIW 080923
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
223 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

NW WINDS HAVE BEEN BLOWING FAIRLY STEADILY ACROSS THE UPPER
WIND RIVER BASIN FROM CROWHEART TO DUBOIS AS WELL AS IN THE VCNTY
OF PINEDALE IN RESPONSE TO THE RELATIVELY TIGHT SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT PRODUCED BY THE SFC HIGH CONTINUING TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST. THE HEART OF THE WIND RIVER AND UPPER GREEN RIVER BASINS
ARE NO LONGER MIXED WITH LIGHT OR CALM WINDS. CURRENTLY IT IS 10
DEGREES 2 MILES SOUTH OF RIVERTON AND 37 IN CROWHEART AS
INVERSIONS REESTABLISH THEMSELVES AMONGST SNOW COVER. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL RETURN FROM RKS TO CPR TODAY AS A SFC LEE SIDE TROUGH
BEGINS TO DEVELOP. WITH TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS STRENGTHENING BY
12Z TUESDAY AND DRY AIR JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...BASINS AND
VALLEYS THAT STILL MAINTAIN SNOWCOVER WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHY FOG
LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS WELL AS LATE TUE NT AND WED
MORNING. TEMPS WILL WARM THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
BASINS AND VALLEYS LAGGING A DAY OR SO BEHIND AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND 60S ARE NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES FOR MIXED AREAS
LIKE CPR AND BYG RESPECTIVELY EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY WED AFTERNOON.
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RETURN FROM THE RED DESERT TO CPR
WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
OVER MOST OF THE AREA. INVERSIONS WILL LIKELY HOLD BUT WEAKEN OVER
COLDER FAR WEST VALLEYS. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE WEST
AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...ECMWF AND GFS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA.  DIFFERENCES ARISE WITH THE NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH SPLITTING ALONG THE WEST COAST ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

SHORTWAVE TOPPING THE RIDGE AND DIVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
THURSDAY WILL PROVIDE BETTER MIXING ACROSS THE LOWER CENTRAL BASINS
WITH INCREASING NW WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION IN THE MID-LEVELS.  ONLY
THE NORTHERN BIGHORN RANGE MAY RECEIVE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WITH THIS CLIPPER. TEMPERATURES IN THE FAR WEST VALLEYS THAT MAY
BE TRAPPED UNDER STEEP INVERSIONS IN THE SHORT-TERM COULD MODERATE
AS WELL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION LIKELY BRINGING
SOME BKN-OVC STRATUS DECKS INTO THE AREA.

BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A GREATER DEGREE OF SPLITTING WITH NEXT
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC FRIDAY.  ECMWF
CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE GFS DAMPENS OUT THE NORTHERN STREAM TO
A MUCH GREATER DEGREE.  GFS SOLUTION KEEP WYOMING DRY WITH A MUCH
WEAKER FRONTAL PASSAGE.  ECMWF HAS SHOWN BETTER RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY WITH ITS STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE.  NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
GOING FORECAST THAT IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF WITH INCREASING
CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST AND FAR NORTH WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. ONLY SLIGHT COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY WITH
BREEZY TO WINDY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE MARGINAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR NEAR
MOUNTAINS AND MOUNTAIN TURBULENCE DUE TO THE STRONG NORTHWEST TO
NORTH FLOW ALOFT. SOME FOG/LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY OVER THE FAR WESTERN VALLEYS...BUT A TURBULENT FLOW JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE...AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY REMAINS SLIM IN WILL KEEP FOG/LOW CLOUDS OUT OF KJAC
TERMINAL FOR NOW. HAVING SAID THAT...THERE IS A NICE BANK OF LOW
CLOUDS/FOG WEST OF THE TETONS IN EASTERN IDAHO TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
OTHERWISE...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A BKN DECK OF MID CLOUDS
BETWEEN 070-120 KFT AGL THROUGH MID MORNING...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST
OF THE DIVIDE.  TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE A BETTER SHOT AT FOG AND LOW
CEILINGS...MAINLY OVER FAR WESTERN VALLEYS...BUT CANNOT RULE IT OUT
EVEN OVER CENTRAL BASINS. WILL INSERT VCFG INTO KJAC TERMINAL LATE
TONIGHT...BUT KEEP IT OUT OF THE UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN DUE TO THE
EXPECTED CONTINUATION OF BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS IN THAT AREA. WILL
ALSO KEEP VCFG MENTION OUT OF CENTRAL BASINS INCLUDING KRIW AND KWRL
TERMINALS AS NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT DEPTH OF SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE WEATHER STORY FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. SOME GUSTY WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOONS...WITH
OTHERWISE QUIET CONDITIONS. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH
THIS TIME RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD POOR SMOKE DISPERSION. THE
MAIN EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AT SOME FAVORED FOOTHILL LOCATIONS AS WELL
AS FROM ROCK SPRINGS TO CASPER WHICH MAY SEE PERIODS OF FAIR
SMOKE DISPERSAL WITH THE PRESENCE OF GUSTY WIND.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 080921
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
221 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 219 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

UPPER LOW SPINS OVER WISCONSIN...WITH STRONG RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE WEST COAST...AND FAST NORTHWEST FLOW IN BETWEEN. STILL A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA. WINDS HAVE
DECREASED BUT STILL REMAIN BREEZY AT 20-30 KTS. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...TEMPS ARE IN THE 20S.

REGION WILL STAY UNDER STRONG NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW EARLY THIS WEEK.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 KTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SD
PLAINS TODAY...STRONGEST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE LOW-END
ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE MET. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER
40S...UNDER INCREASINGLY CLOUDY SKIES.

ON TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TRANSITIONING EASTWARD...AND WARMER
AIR WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST. BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL SD...AND AS SOME MIDLEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK UPPER
ENERGY MOVE OVER THE REGION...MAY BE A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT.
MAY ALSO BE SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN HILLS.
OVERALL THESE AREAS MAY SEE AN INCH OF SNOW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD
TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 219 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

VERY MILD TEMPS EXPECTED ON WED AS THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO OUR WRN ZONES AND W/NW BL FLOW (DOWNSLOPE) PREVAILS. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE FAST NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CROSS THE
NRN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND PUSH A BACKDOOR CDFNT INTO THE CWFA. SOME
LIGHT PCPN POSSIBLE WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BUT NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT ANTICIPATED. THIS COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO A WIDE RANGE
OF TEMPS FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND DEPENDENT ON
HOW FAR WEST THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENDS UP. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL CROSS THE NRN PLAINS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND COULD BRING
SOME LIGHT PCPN TO OUR FAR WRN ZONES...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED. TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 219 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY NW
WINDS UP TO 35KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...PRIMARILY ON THE SD
PLAINS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 080921
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
221 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 219 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

UPPER LOW SPINS OVER WISCONSIN...WITH STRONG RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE WEST COAST...AND FAST NORTHWEST FLOW IN BETWEEN. STILL A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA. WINDS HAVE
DECREASED BUT STILL REMAIN BREEZY AT 20-30 KTS. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...TEMPS ARE IN THE 20S.

REGION WILL STAY UNDER STRONG NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW EARLY THIS WEEK.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 KTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SD
PLAINS TODAY...STRONGEST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE LOW-END
ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE MET. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER
40S...UNDER INCREASINGLY CLOUDY SKIES.

ON TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TRANSITIONING EASTWARD...AND WARMER
AIR WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST. BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL SD...AND AS SOME MIDLEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK UPPER
ENERGY MOVE OVER THE REGION...MAY BE A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT.
MAY ALSO BE SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN HILLS.
OVERALL THESE AREAS MAY SEE AN INCH OF SNOW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD
TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 219 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

VERY MILD TEMPS EXPECTED ON WED AS THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO OUR WRN ZONES AND W/NW BL FLOW (DOWNSLOPE) PREVAILS. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE FAST NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CROSS THE
NRN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND PUSH A BACKDOOR CDFNT INTO THE CWFA. SOME
LIGHT PCPN POSSIBLE WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BUT NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT ANTICIPATED. THIS COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO A WIDE RANGE
OF TEMPS FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND DEPENDENT ON
HOW FAR WEST THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENDS UP. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL CROSS THE NRN PLAINS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND COULD BRING
SOME LIGHT PCPN TO OUR FAR WRN ZONES...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED. TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 219 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY NW
WINDS UP TO 35KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...PRIMARILY ON THE SD
PLAINS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 080921
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
221 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 219 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

UPPER LOW SPINS OVER WISCONSIN...WITH STRONG RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE WEST COAST...AND FAST NORTHWEST FLOW IN BETWEEN. STILL A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA. WINDS HAVE
DECREASED BUT STILL REMAIN BREEZY AT 20-30 KTS. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...TEMPS ARE IN THE 20S.

REGION WILL STAY UNDER STRONG NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW EARLY THIS WEEK.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 KTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SD
PLAINS TODAY...STRONGEST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE LOW-END
ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE MET. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER
40S...UNDER INCREASINGLY CLOUDY SKIES.

ON TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TRANSITIONING EASTWARD...AND WARMER
AIR WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST. BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL SD...AND AS SOME MIDLEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK UPPER
ENERGY MOVE OVER THE REGION...MAY BE A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT.
MAY ALSO BE SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN HILLS.
OVERALL THESE AREAS MAY SEE AN INCH OF SNOW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD
TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 219 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

VERY MILD TEMPS EXPECTED ON WED AS THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO OUR WRN ZONES AND W/NW BL FLOW (DOWNSLOPE) PREVAILS. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE FAST NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CROSS THE
NRN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND PUSH A BACKDOOR CDFNT INTO THE CWFA. SOME
LIGHT PCPN POSSIBLE WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BUT NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT ANTICIPATED. THIS COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO A WIDE RANGE
OF TEMPS FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND DEPENDENT ON
HOW FAR WEST THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENDS UP. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL CROSS THE NRN PLAINS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND COULD BRING
SOME LIGHT PCPN TO OUR FAR WRN ZONES...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED. TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 219 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY NW
WINDS UP TO 35KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...PRIMARILY ON THE SD
PLAINS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON



000
FXUS65 KRIW 080554
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1054 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAVE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL WYOMING. WARMING TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME GUSTY WIND MAY RETURN TO THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS LIKE THE WIND
CORRIDOR BETWEEN ROCK SPRINGS AND CASPER.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

OVERALL...UNSEASONABLY WARM IN THE LONG TERM AS IT IS DOMINATED BY A
RIDGE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF DISTURBANCE
ZIPPING BY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER SMALL ONE
EARLY ON FRIDAY THAT WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT. THESE WEAK
WAVES WILL NOT CONTRIBUTE MUCH TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER OTHER THAN
COOLING TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES...BACK TOWARD SOMETHING
RESEMBLING NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE STRENGTH OF THE
INVERSIONS WILL BE THE FORECAST CHALLENGE...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL
BREEZY DAYS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CODY FOOTHILLS AND FROM SOUTH
PASS TO CASPER ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A LEE TROUGH SETS UP AT
THE SURFACE. THIS WILL ALSO ADD A FEW DEGREES TO THE TEMPERATURES IN
THE DOWNSLOPED AND BETTER MIXED AREAS.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON BRINGING A SYSTEM THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SO THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS INHERITED FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT WERE NOT
ALTERED MUCH...ASIDE FROM EXPANDING THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE
MARGINAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR NEAR MOUNTAINS AND MOUNTAIN TURBULENCE
DUE TO THE STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW ALOFT. SOME FOG/LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT REMAINS A POSSIBILITY OVER THE FAR WESTERN VALLEYS
MONDAY MORNING...BUT A TURBULENT FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...AND
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY REMAINS SLIM IN
WILL KEEP FOG/LOW CLOUDS OUT OF KJAC TERMINAL FOR NOW. HAVING SAID
THAT...THERE IS A NICE BANK OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG WEST OF THE TETONS IN
EASTERN IDAHO TO KEEP AN EYE ON. OTHERWISE...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING A BKN DECK OF MID CLOUDS BETWEEN 070-120 KFT AGL THROUGH MID
MORNING...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE DIVIDE. DURING MONDAY
NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A BETTER SHOT AT FOG AND LOW CEILINGS...MAINLY
OVER FAR WESTERN VALLEYS...BUT CANNOT RULE IT OUT EVEN OVER CENTRAL
BASINS. WILL INSERT VCFG INTO KJAC TERMINAL FOR LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT KEEP IT OUT OF THE UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN DUE TO THE
EXPECTED CONTINUATION OF BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS IN THAT AREA. WILL
ALSO KEEP VCFG MENTION OUT OF CENTRAL BASINS INCLUDING KRIW AND KWRL
TERMINALS AS NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT DEPTH OF SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE WEATHER STORY FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. SOME GUSTY WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOONS...WITH
OTHERWISE QUIET CONDITIONS. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH
THIS TIME RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD POOR SMOKE DISPERSION. THE
MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE AT SOME FAVORED FOOTHILL LOCATIONS WHICH
MAY SEE PERIODS OF FAIR SMOKE DISPERSAL WITH THE PRESENCE OF GUSTY
WIND.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRANHAM
LONG TERM...ALLEN
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...BRANHAM




000
FXUS65 KRIW 080554
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1054 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAVE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL WYOMING. WARMING TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME GUSTY WIND MAY RETURN TO THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS LIKE THE WIND
CORRIDOR BETWEEN ROCK SPRINGS AND CASPER.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

OVERALL...UNSEASONABLY WARM IN THE LONG TERM AS IT IS DOMINATED BY A
RIDGE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF DISTURBANCE
ZIPPING BY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER SMALL ONE
EARLY ON FRIDAY THAT WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT. THESE WEAK
WAVES WILL NOT CONTRIBUTE MUCH TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER OTHER THAN
COOLING TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES...BACK TOWARD SOMETHING
RESEMBLING NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE STRENGTH OF THE
INVERSIONS WILL BE THE FORECAST CHALLENGE...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL
BREEZY DAYS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CODY FOOTHILLS AND FROM SOUTH
PASS TO CASPER ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A LEE TROUGH SETS UP AT
THE SURFACE. THIS WILL ALSO ADD A FEW DEGREES TO THE TEMPERATURES IN
THE DOWNSLOPED AND BETTER MIXED AREAS.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON BRINGING A SYSTEM THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SO THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS INHERITED FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT WERE NOT
ALTERED MUCH...ASIDE FROM EXPANDING THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE
MARGINAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR NEAR MOUNTAINS AND MOUNTAIN TURBULENCE
DUE TO THE STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW ALOFT. SOME FOG/LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT REMAINS A POSSIBILITY OVER THE FAR WESTERN VALLEYS
MONDAY MORNING...BUT A TURBULENT FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...AND
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY REMAINS SLIM IN
WILL KEEP FOG/LOW CLOUDS OUT OF KJAC TERMINAL FOR NOW. HAVING SAID
THAT...THERE IS A NICE BANK OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG WEST OF THE TETONS IN
EASTERN IDAHO TO KEEP AN EYE ON. OTHERWISE...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING A BKN DECK OF MID CLOUDS BETWEEN 070-120 KFT AGL THROUGH MID
MORNING...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE DIVIDE. DURING MONDAY
NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A BETTER SHOT AT FOG AND LOW CEILINGS...MAINLY
OVER FAR WESTERN VALLEYS...BUT CANNOT RULE IT OUT EVEN OVER CENTRAL
BASINS. WILL INSERT VCFG INTO KJAC TERMINAL FOR LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT KEEP IT OUT OF THE UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN DUE TO THE
EXPECTED CONTINUATION OF BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS IN THAT AREA. WILL
ALSO KEEP VCFG MENTION OUT OF CENTRAL BASINS INCLUDING KRIW AND KWRL
TERMINALS AS NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT DEPTH OF SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE WEATHER STORY FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. SOME GUSTY WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOONS...WITH
OTHERWISE QUIET CONDITIONS. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH
THIS TIME RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD POOR SMOKE DISPERSION. THE
MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE AT SOME FAVORED FOOTHILL LOCATIONS WHICH
MAY SEE PERIODS OF FAIR SMOKE DISPERSAL WITH THE PRESENCE OF GUSTY
WIND.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRANHAM
LONG TERM...ALLEN
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...BRANHAM




000
FXUS65 KRIW 080554
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1054 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAVE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL WYOMING. WARMING TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME GUSTY WIND MAY RETURN TO THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS LIKE THE WIND
CORRIDOR BETWEEN ROCK SPRINGS AND CASPER.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

OVERALL...UNSEASONABLY WARM IN THE LONG TERM AS IT IS DOMINATED BY A
RIDGE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF DISTURBANCE
ZIPPING BY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER SMALL ONE
EARLY ON FRIDAY THAT WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT. THESE WEAK
WAVES WILL NOT CONTRIBUTE MUCH TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER OTHER THAN
COOLING TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES...BACK TOWARD SOMETHING
RESEMBLING NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE STRENGTH OF THE
INVERSIONS WILL BE THE FORECAST CHALLENGE...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL
BREEZY DAYS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CODY FOOTHILLS AND FROM SOUTH
PASS TO CASPER ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A LEE TROUGH SETS UP AT
THE SURFACE. THIS WILL ALSO ADD A FEW DEGREES TO THE TEMPERATURES IN
THE DOWNSLOPED AND BETTER MIXED AREAS.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON BRINGING A SYSTEM THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SO THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS INHERITED FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT WERE NOT
ALTERED MUCH...ASIDE FROM EXPANDING THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE
MARGINAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR NEAR MOUNTAINS AND MOUNTAIN TURBULENCE
DUE TO THE STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW ALOFT. SOME FOG/LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT REMAINS A POSSIBILITY OVER THE FAR WESTERN VALLEYS
MONDAY MORNING...BUT A TURBULENT FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...AND
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY REMAINS SLIM IN
WILL KEEP FOG/LOW CLOUDS OUT OF KJAC TERMINAL FOR NOW. HAVING SAID
THAT...THERE IS A NICE BANK OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG WEST OF THE TETONS IN
EASTERN IDAHO TO KEEP AN EYE ON. OTHERWISE...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING A BKN DECK OF MID CLOUDS BETWEEN 070-120 KFT AGL THROUGH MID
MORNING...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE DIVIDE. DURING MONDAY
NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A BETTER SHOT AT FOG AND LOW CEILINGS...MAINLY
OVER FAR WESTERN VALLEYS...BUT CANNOT RULE IT OUT EVEN OVER CENTRAL
BASINS. WILL INSERT VCFG INTO KJAC TERMINAL FOR LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT KEEP IT OUT OF THE UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN DUE TO THE
EXPECTED CONTINUATION OF BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS IN THAT AREA. WILL
ALSO KEEP VCFG MENTION OUT OF CENTRAL BASINS INCLUDING KRIW AND KWRL
TERMINALS AS NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT DEPTH OF SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE WEATHER STORY FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. SOME GUSTY WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOONS...WITH
OTHERWISE QUIET CONDITIONS. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH
THIS TIME RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD POOR SMOKE DISPERSION. THE
MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE AT SOME FAVORED FOOTHILL LOCATIONS WHICH
MAY SEE PERIODS OF FAIR SMOKE DISPERSAL WITH THE PRESENCE OF GUSTY
WIND.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRANHAM
LONG TERM...ALLEN
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...BRANHAM



000
FXUS65 KCYS 080544
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1044 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 447 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA. HOWEVER...
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS PREVENTING DECENT LLVL MIXING
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. MOST LOCATIONS ARE STRUGGLING TO REACH
HIGH WIND CRITERIA...ALTHOUGH A FEW SITES HAVE HIT OR COME VERY
CLOSE ACROSS NRN SIOUX AND DAWES COUNTIES. OTHER AREAS ARE GUSTING
BETWEEN 45 TO 50 MPH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 30 TO 35 MPH.
WILL KEEP THE WARNING GOING FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO CANCEL IT
EARLY. OTHERWISE...COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
I80 CORRIDOR BETWEEN LARAMIE AND RAWLINS WHICH MAY HAVE WESTERLY
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 55 MPH AT TIMES.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN A GOOD AGREEMENT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS...CURRENTLY ALONG THE PACIFIC
COASTLINE...DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA DUE TO NORTHERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S IN THE AFTERNOON ON
MONDAY...AND THEN INTO THE 40S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY WIND CONCERNS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT JUST OFF
THE SURFACE WILL BE WEAKER COMPARED TO THIS WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH
BREEZY OR WINDY CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS.
KEPT TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW MOS ACROSS MOST AREAS DUE TO
A LINGERING SNOWPACK. THIS SNOWPACK SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATER THIS
WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND BREEZY-TO-WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THURS NIGHT WITH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS THE CWA...THEN THE RIDGE SHIFTS
EASTWARD BY FRI/SAT. THE 850 MB CAG-CPR GRADIENT IS A MAXIMIZED AT
45-50 METERS ON WED AFTN AND THEN DECREASES TO 20-30 METERS THROUGH
SAT.  DO NOT ENVISION ANY WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS ACROSS THE
WIND PRONE AREAS.  WITH 700 MB TEMPS OF 0-3C...HIGHS TO THE EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S EACH DAY.  BY
THIS TIME NEXT WEEKEND MUCH OF THE SNOW COVER SHOULD BE GONE ACROSS
LOWER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1036 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

NO BIG AVIATION CONCERNS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW ALTHOUGH BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MAINLY VFR BUT
SOME LOW CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AREAS WEST OF THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE
RANGE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES WHERE
MOUNTAIN TOPS MAY BE OBSCURED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 225 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK DUE TO A SURFACE SNOWPACK
ACROSS THE AREA AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT NO CONCERNS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ABOVE 30 PERCENT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...TJT




000
FXUS63 KUNR 080530
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1030 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 801 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

GRADIENT RELAXING SOME COMBINED WITH PARTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLING RESULTING IN EXPECTED DECREASE IN WINDS THIS EVENING.
WILL LET HEADLINES EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

20Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS THE CWA "SQUEEZED" BETWEEN A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND RIDGE OVER MINNESOTA AND THE WESTERN
CONUS...RESPECTIVELY. THIS...ALONG WITH AN EXTREMELY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM A 997MB LOW IN MINNESOTA AND 1034 HIGH IN
WYOMING...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THE VERY
IMPRESSIVE AND POWERFUL WIND EVENT ONGOING IN THE CWA AT THIS
TIME. HAVE ALREADY HAD MULTIPLE HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS ACROSS
THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS...WITH THE HIGHEST OCCURRING IN WASTA AND
SCENIC AT 78MPH. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...BUT STILL EXPECT
BREEZY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 TO 30
MPH AND GUSTS APPROACHING 40MPH.

BY MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN BEGINS
TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE CWA. WINDS WILL STILL BE
BREEZY MONDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY...BUT SHOULD
DROP DOWN BY EVENING WHEN THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION SETS IN. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN NW THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH UPPER
RIDGE DOMINATING THE WRN CONUS. BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL PUSH INTO OUR
ERN HALF OF ZONES TUESDAY AS UPPER WAVE DROPS SEWD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. COULD BE SOME -SHRA/-SHSN WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THIS SHORTWAVE. WARMER AIR WILL
THEN PUSH BACK INTO THE ENTIRE CWFA ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE
EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW ANOTHER BACKDOOR CDFNT TO
SLIDE INTO OUR ERN ZONES LATE THURSDAY AND MAY PROVIDE ANOTHER
SMALL OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT PCPN. FOR NOW WILL KEEP WX TYPE SNOW
BUT THERMAL PROFILES DO SHOW SOME CHANCE FOR FREEZING DZ/-RA SO
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. WARMER/DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE NRN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1029 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE SD PLAINS AROUND 40KTS WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...HELGESON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 080530
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1030 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 801 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

GRADIENT RELAXING SOME COMBINED WITH PARTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLING RESULTING IN EXPECTED DECREASE IN WINDS THIS EVENING.
WILL LET HEADLINES EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

20Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS THE CWA "SQUEEZED" BETWEEN A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND RIDGE OVER MINNESOTA AND THE WESTERN
CONUS...RESPECTIVELY. THIS...ALONG WITH AN EXTREMELY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM A 997MB LOW IN MINNESOTA AND 1034 HIGH IN
WYOMING...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THE VERY
IMPRESSIVE AND POWERFUL WIND EVENT ONGOING IN THE CWA AT THIS
TIME. HAVE ALREADY HAD MULTIPLE HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS ACROSS
THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS...WITH THE HIGHEST OCCURRING IN WASTA AND
SCENIC AT 78MPH. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...BUT STILL EXPECT
BREEZY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 TO 30
MPH AND GUSTS APPROACHING 40MPH.

BY MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN BEGINS
TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE CWA. WINDS WILL STILL BE
BREEZY MONDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY...BUT SHOULD
DROP DOWN BY EVENING WHEN THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION SETS IN. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN NW THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH UPPER
RIDGE DOMINATING THE WRN CONUS. BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL PUSH INTO OUR
ERN HALF OF ZONES TUESDAY AS UPPER WAVE DROPS SEWD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. COULD BE SOME -SHRA/-SHSN WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THIS SHORTWAVE. WARMER AIR WILL
THEN PUSH BACK INTO THE ENTIRE CWFA ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE
EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW ANOTHER BACKDOOR CDFNT TO
SLIDE INTO OUR ERN ZONES LATE THURSDAY AND MAY PROVIDE ANOTHER
SMALL OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT PCPN. FOR NOW WILL KEEP WX TYPE SNOW
BUT THERMAL PROFILES DO SHOW SOME CHANCE FOR FREEZING DZ/-RA SO
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. WARMER/DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE NRN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1029 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE SD PLAINS AROUND 40KTS WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...HELGESON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 080303
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
803 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 801 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

GRADIENT RELAXING SOME COMBINED WITH PARTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLING RESULTING IN EXPECTED DECREASE IN WINDS THIS EVENING.
WILL LET HEADLINES EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

20Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS THE CWA "SQUEEZED" BETWEEN A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND RIDGE OVER MINNESOTA AND THE WESTERN
CONUS...RESPECTIVELY. THIS...ALONG WITH AN EXTREMELY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM A 997MB LOW IN MINNESOTA AND 1034 HIGH IN
WYOMING...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THE VERY
IMPRESSIVE AND POWERFUL WIND EVENT ONGOING IN THE CWA AT THIS
TIME. HAVE ALREADY HAD MULTIPLE HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS ACROSS
THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS...WITH THE HIGHEST OCCURRING IN WASTA AND
SCENIC AT 78MPH. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...BUT STILL EXPECT
BREEZY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 TO 30
MPH AND GUSTS APPROACHING 40MPH.

BY MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN BEGINS
TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE CWA. WINDS WILL STILL BE
BREEZY MONDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY...BUT SHOULD
DROP DOWN BY EVENING WHEN THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION SETS IN. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN NW THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH UPPER
RIDGE DOMINATING THE WRN CONUS. BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL PUSH INTO OUR
ERN HALF OF ZONES TUESDAY AS UPPER WAVE DROPS SEWD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. COULD BE SOME -SHRA/-SHSN WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THIS SHORTWAVE. WARMER AIR WILL
THEN PUSH BACK INTO THE ENTIRE CWFA ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE
EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW ANOTHER BACKDOOR CDFNT TO
SLIDE INTO OUR ERN ZONES LATE THURSDAY AND MAY PROVIDE ANOTHER
SMALL OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT PCPN. FOR NOW WILL KEEP WX TYPE SNOW
BUT THERMAL PROFILES DO SHOW SOME CHANCE FOR FREEZING DZ/-RA SO
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. WARMER/DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE NRN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 413 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 55KTS WILL SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING...BUT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY/WINDY THROUGH
MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...HELGESON




000
FXUS65 KCYS 072358
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
458 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 447 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA. HOWEVER...
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS PREVENTING DECENT LLVL MIXING
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. MOST LOCATIONS ARE STRUGGLING TO REACH
HIGH WIND CRITERIA...ALTHOUGH A FEW SITES HAVE HIT OR COME VERY
CLOSE ACROSS NRN SIOUX AND DAWES COUNTIES. OTHER AREAS ARE GUSTING
BETWEEN 45 TO 50 MPH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 30 TO 35 MPH.
WILL KEEP THE WARNING GOING FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO CANCEL IT
EARLY. OTHERWISE...COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
I80 CORRIDOR BETWEEN LARAMIE AND RAWLINS WHICH MAY HAVE WESTERLY
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 55 MPH AT TIMES.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN A GOOD AGREEMENT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS...CURRENTLY ALONG THE PACIFIC
COASTLINE...DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA DUE TO NORTHERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S IN THE AFTERNOON ON
MONDAY...AND THEN INTO THE 40S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY WIND CONCERNS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT JUST OFF
THE SURFACE WILL BE WEAKER COMPARED TO THIS WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH
BREEZY OR WINDY CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS.
KEPT TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW MOS ACROSS MOST AREAS DUE TO
A LINGERING SNOWPACK. THIS SNOWPACK SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATER THIS
WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND BREEZY-TO-WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THURS NIGHT WITH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS THE CWA...THEN THE RIDGE SHIFTS
EASTWARD BY FRI/SAT. THE 850 MB CAG-CPR GRADIENT IS A MAXIMIZED AT
45-50 METERS ON WED AFTN AND THEN DECREASES TO 20-30 METERS THROUGH
SAT.  DO NOT ENVISION ANY WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS ACROSS THE
WIND PRONE AREAS.  WITH 700 MB TEMPS OF 0-3C...HIGHS TO THE EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S EACH DAY.  BY
THIS TIME NEXT WEEKEND MUCH OF THE SNOW COVER SHOULD BE GONE ACROSS
LOWER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 428 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

MINIMAL AVIATION CONCERNS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MAINLY VFR BUT SOME LOW CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE AREAS WEST OF THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 225 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK DUE TO A SURFACE SNOWPACK
ACROSS THE AREA AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT NO CONCERNS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ABOVE 30 PERCENT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MINIMAL AVIATION CONCERNS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...TJT




000
FXUS65 KCYS 072358
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
458 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 447 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA. HOWEVER...
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS PREVENTING DECENT LLVL MIXING
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. MOST LOCATIONS ARE STRUGGLING TO REACH
HIGH WIND CRITERIA...ALTHOUGH A FEW SITES HAVE HIT OR COME VERY
CLOSE ACROSS NRN SIOUX AND DAWES COUNTIES. OTHER AREAS ARE GUSTING
BETWEEN 45 TO 50 MPH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 30 TO 35 MPH.
WILL KEEP THE WARNING GOING FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO CANCEL IT
EARLY. OTHERWISE...COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
I80 CORRIDOR BETWEEN LARAMIE AND RAWLINS WHICH MAY HAVE WESTERLY
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 55 MPH AT TIMES.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN A GOOD AGREEMENT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS...CURRENTLY ALONG THE PACIFIC
COASTLINE...DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA DUE TO NORTHERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S IN THE AFTERNOON ON
MONDAY...AND THEN INTO THE 40S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY WIND CONCERNS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT JUST OFF
THE SURFACE WILL BE WEAKER COMPARED TO THIS WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH
BREEZY OR WINDY CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS.
KEPT TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW MOS ACROSS MOST AREAS DUE TO
A LINGERING SNOWPACK. THIS SNOWPACK SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATER THIS
WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND BREEZY-TO-WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THURS NIGHT WITH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS THE CWA...THEN THE RIDGE SHIFTS
EASTWARD BY FRI/SAT. THE 850 MB CAG-CPR GRADIENT IS A MAXIMIZED AT
45-50 METERS ON WED AFTN AND THEN DECREASES TO 20-30 METERS THROUGH
SAT.  DO NOT ENVISION ANY WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS ACROSS THE
WIND PRONE AREAS.  WITH 700 MB TEMPS OF 0-3C...HIGHS TO THE EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S EACH DAY.  BY
THIS TIME NEXT WEEKEND MUCH OF THE SNOW COVER SHOULD BE GONE ACROSS
LOWER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 428 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

MINIMAL AVIATION CONCERNS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MAINLY VFR BUT SOME LOW CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE AREAS WEST OF THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 225 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK DUE TO A SURFACE SNOWPACK
ACROSS THE AREA AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT NO CONCERNS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ABOVE 30 PERCENT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MINIMAL AVIATION CONCERNS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...TJT




000
FXUS65 KCYS 072358
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
458 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 447 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA. HOWEVER...
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS PREVENTING DECENT LLVL MIXING
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. MOST LOCATIONS ARE STRUGGLING TO REACH
HIGH WIND CRITERIA...ALTHOUGH A FEW SITES HAVE HIT OR COME VERY
CLOSE ACROSS NRN SIOUX AND DAWES COUNTIES. OTHER AREAS ARE GUSTING
BETWEEN 45 TO 50 MPH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 30 TO 35 MPH.
WILL KEEP THE WARNING GOING FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO CANCEL IT
EARLY. OTHERWISE...COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
I80 CORRIDOR BETWEEN LARAMIE AND RAWLINS WHICH MAY HAVE WESTERLY
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 55 MPH AT TIMES.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN A GOOD AGREEMENT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS...CURRENTLY ALONG THE PACIFIC
COASTLINE...DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA DUE TO NORTHERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S IN THE AFTERNOON ON
MONDAY...AND THEN INTO THE 40S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY WIND CONCERNS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT JUST OFF
THE SURFACE WILL BE WEAKER COMPARED TO THIS WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH
BREEZY OR WINDY CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS.
KEPT TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW MOS ACROSS MOST AREAS DUE TO
A LINGERING SNOWPACK. THIS SNOWPACK SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATER THIS
WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND BREEZY-TO-WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THURS NIGHT WITH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS THE CWA...THEN THE RIDGE SHIFTS
EASTWARD BY FRI/SAT. THE 850 MB CAG-CPR GRADIENT IS A MAXIMIZED AT
45-50 METERS ON WED AFTN AND THEN DECREASES TO 20-30 METERS THROUGH
SAT.  DO NOT ENVISION ANY WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS ACROSS THE
WIND PRONE AREAS.  WITH 700 MB TEMPS OF 0-3C...HIGHS TO THE EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S EACH DAY.  BY
THIS TIME NEXT WEEKEND MUCH OF THE SNOW COVER SHOULD BE GONE ACROSS
LOWER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 428 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

MINIMAL AVIATION CONCERNS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MAINLY VFR BUT SOME LOW CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE AREAS WEST OF THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 225 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK DUE TO A SURFACE SNOWPACK
ACROSS THE AREA AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT NO CONCERNS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ABOVE 30 PERCENT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MINIMAL AVIATION CONCERNS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...TJT



000
FXUS65 KCYS 072335
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
435 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS PREVENTING DECENT LLVL MIXING
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. MOST LOCATIONS ARE STRUGGLING TO REACH
HIGH WIND CRITERIA...ALTHOUGH A FEW SITES HAVE HIT OR COME VERY
CLOSE ACROSS NRN SIOUX AND DAWES COUNTIES. OTHER AREAS ARE GUSTING
BETWEEN 45 TO 50 MPH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 30 TO 35 MPH.
WILL KEEP THE WARNING GOING FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO CANCEL IT
EARLY. OTHERWISE...COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
I80 CORRIDOR BETWEEN LARAMIE AND RAWLINS WHICH MAY HAVE WESTERLY
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 55 MPH AT TIMES.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN A GOOD AGREEMENT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS...CURRENTLY ALONG THE PACIFIC
COASTLINE...DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA DUE TO NORTHERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S IN THE AFTERNOON ON
MONDAY...AND THEN INTO THE 40S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY WIND CONCERNS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT JUST OFF
THE SURFACE WILL BE WEAKER COMPARED TO THIS WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH
BREEZY OR WINDY CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS.
KEPT TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW MOS ACROSS MOST AREAS DUE TO
A LINGERING SNOWPACK. THIS SNOWPACK SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATER THIS
WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND BREEZY-TO-WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THURS NIGHT WITH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS THE CWA...THEN THE RIDGE SHIFTS
EASTWARD BY FRI/SAT. THE 850 MB CAG-CPR GRADIENT IS A MAXIMIZED AT
45-50 METERS ON WED AFTN AND THEN DECREASES TO 20-30 METERS THROUGH
SAT.  DO NOT ENVISION ANY WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS ACROSS THE
WIND PRONE AREAS.  WITH 700 MB TEMPS OF 0-3C...HIGHS TO THE EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S EACH DAY.  BY
THIS TIME NEXT WEEKEND MUCH OF THE SNOW COVER SHOULD BE GONE ACROSS
LOWER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 428 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

MINIMAL AVIATION CONCERNS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MAINLY VFR BUT SOME LOW CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE AREAS WEST OF THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 225 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK DUE TO A SURFACE SNOWPACK
ACROSS THE AREA AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT NO CONCERNS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ABOVE 30 PERCENT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ002-003-
     019>021-054-055-095-096.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...TJT




000
FXUS65 KCYS 072335
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
435 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS PREVENTING DECENT LLVL MIXING
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. MOST LOCATIONS ARE STRUGGLING TO REACH
HIGH WIND CRITERIA...ALTHOUGH A FEW SITES HAVE HIT OR COME VERY
CLOSE ACROSS NRN SIOUX AND DAWES COUNTIES. OTHER AREAS ARE GUSTING
BETWEEN 45 TO 50 MPH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 30 TO 35 MPH.
WILL KEEP THE WARNING GOING FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO CANCEL IT
EARLY. OTHERWISE...COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
I80 CORRIDOR BETWEEN LARAMIE AND RAWLINS WHICH MAY HAVE WESTERLY
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 55 MPH AT TIMES.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN A GOOD AGREEMENT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS...CURRENTLY ALONG THE PACIFIC
COASTLINE...DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA DUE TO NORTHERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S IN THE AFTERNOON ON
MONDAY...AND THEN INTO THE 40S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY WIND CONCERNS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT JUST OFF
THE SURFACE WILL BE WEAKER COMPARED TO THIS WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH
BREEZY OR WINDY CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS.
KEPT TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW MOS ACROSS MOST AREAS DUE TO
A LINGERING SNOWPACK. THIS SNOWPACK SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATER THIS
WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND BREEZY-TO-WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THURS NIGHT WITH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS THE CWA...THEN THE RIDGE SHIFTS
EASTWARD BY FRI/SAT. THE 850 MB CAG-CPR GRADIENT IS A MAXIMIZED AT
45-50 METERS ON WED AFTN AND THEN DECREASES TO 20-30 METERS THROUGH
SAT.  DO NOT ENVISION ANY WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS ACROSS THE
WIND PRONE AREAS.  WITH 700 MB TEMPS OF 0-3C...HIGHS TO THE EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S EACH DAY.  BY
THIS TIME NEXT WEEKEND MUCH OF THE SNOW COVER SHOULD BE GONE ACROSS
LOWER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 428 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

MINIMAL AVIATION CONCERNS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MAINLY VFR BUT SOME LOW CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE AREAS WEST OF THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 225 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK DUE TO A SURFACE SNOWPACK
ACROSS THE AREA AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT NO CONCERNS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ABOVE 30 PERCENT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ002-003-
     019>021-054-055-095-096.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...TJT



000
FXUS65 KCYS 072335
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
435 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS PREVENTING DECENT LLVL MIXING
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. MOST LOCATIONS ARE STRUGGLING TO REACH
HIGH WIND CRITERIA...ALTHOUGH A FEW SITES HAVE HIT OR COME VERY
CLOSE ACROSS NRN SIOUX AND DAWES COUNTIES. OTHER AREAS ARE GUSTING
BETWEEN 45 TO 50 MPH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 30 TO 35 MPH.
WILL KEEP THE WARNING GOING FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO CANCEL IT
EARLY. OTHERWISE...COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
I80 CORRIDOR BETWEEN LARAMIE AND RAWLINS WHICH MAY HAVE WESTERLY
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 55 MPH AT TIMES.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN A GOOD AGREEMENT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS...CURRENTLY ALONG THE PACIFIC
COASTLINE...DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA DUE TO NORTHERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S IN THE AFTERNOON ON
MONDAY...AND THEN INTO THE 40S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY WIND CONCERNS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT JUST OFF
THE SURFACE WILL BE WEAKER COMPARED TO THIS WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH
BREEZY OR WINDY CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS.
KEPT TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW MOS ACROSS MOST AREAS DUE TO
A LINGERING SNOWPACK. THIS SNOWPACK SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATER THIS
WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND BREEZY-TO-WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THURS NIGHT WITH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS THE CWA...THEN THE RIDGE SHIFTS
EASTWARD BY FRI/SAT. THE 850 MB CAG-CPR GRADIENT IS A MAXIMIZED AT
45-50 METERS ON WED AFTN AND THEN DECREASES TO 20-30 METERS THROUGH
SAT.  DO NOT ENVISION ANY WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS ACROSS THE
WIND PRONE AREAS.  WITH 700 MB TEMPS OF 0-3C...HIGHS TO THE EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S EACH DAY.  BY
THIS TIME NEXT WEEKEND MUCH OF THE SNOW COVER SHOULD BE GONE ACROSS
LOWER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 428 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

MINIMAL AVIATION CONCERNS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MAINLY VFR BUT SOME LOW CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE AREAS WEST OF THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 225 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK DUE TO A SURFACE SNOWPACK
ACROSS THE AREA AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT NO CONCERNS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ABOVE 30 PERCENT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ002-003-
     019>021-054-055-095-096.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...TJT




000
FXUS63 KUNR 072314
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
414 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

20Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS THE CWA "SQUEEZED" BETWEEN A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND RIDGE OVER MINNESOTA AND THE WESTERN
CONUS...RESPECTIVELY. THIS...ALONG WITH AN EXTREMELY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM A 997MB LOW IN MINNESOTA AND 1034 HIGH IN
WYOMING...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THE VERY
IMPRESSIVE AND POWERFUL WIND EVENT ONGOING IN THE CWA AT THIS
TIME. HAVE ALREADY HAD MULTIPLE HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS ACROSS
THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS...WITH THE HIGHEST OCCURRING IN WASTA AND
SCENIC AT 78MPH. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...BUT STILL EXPECT
BREEZY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 TO 30
MPH AND GUSTS APPROACHING 40MPH.

BY MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN BEGINS
TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE CWA. WINDS WILL STILL BE
BREEZY MONDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY...BUT SHOULD
DROP DOWN BY EVENING WHEN THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION SETS IN. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN NW THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH UPPER
RIDGE DOMINATING THE WRN CONUS. BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL PUSH INTO OUR
ERN HALF OF ZONES TUESDAY AS UPPER WAVE DROPS SEWD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. COULD BE SOME -SHRA/-SHSN WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THIS SHORTWAVE. WARMER AIR WILL
THEN PUSH BACK INTO THE ENTIRE CWFA ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE
EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW ANOTHER BACKDOOR CDFNT TO
SLIDE INTO OUR ERN ZONES LATE THURSDAY AND MAY PROVIDE ANOTHER
SMALL OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT PCPN. FOR NOW WILL KEEP WX TYPE SNOW
BUT THERMAL PROFILES DO SHOW SOME CHANCE FOR FREEZING DZ/-RA SO
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. WARMER/DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE NRN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 413 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 55KTS WILL SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING...BUT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY/WINDY THROUGH
MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074.

WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR WYZ057-071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...HELGESON




000
FXUS65 KRIW 072148
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
248 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAVE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL WYOMING. WARMING TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME GUSTY WIND MAY RETURN TO THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS LIKE THE WIND
CORRIDOR BETWEEN ROCK SPRINGS AND CASPER.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

OVERALL...UNSEASONABLY WARM IN THE LONG TERM AS IT IS DOMINATED BY A
RIDGE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF DISTURBANCE
ZIPPING BY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER SMALL ONE
EARLY ON FRIDAY THAT WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT. THESE WEAK
WAVES WILL NOT CONTRIBUTE MUCH TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER OTHER THAN
COOLING TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES...BACK TOWARD SOMETHING
RESEMBLING NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE STRENGTH OF THE
INVERSIONS WILL BE THE FORECAST CHALLENGE...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL
BREEZY DAYS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CODY FOOTHILLS AND FROM SOUTH
PASS TO CASPER ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A LEE TROUGH SETS UP AT
THE SURFACE. THIS WILL ALSO ADD A FEW DEGREES TO THE TEMPERATURES IN
THE DOWNSLOPED AND BETTER MIXED AREAS.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON BRINGING A SYSTEM THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SO THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS INHERITED FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT WERE NOT
ALTERED MUCH...ASIDE FROM EXPANDING THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING. SOME GUSTY WIND MAY REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH BETWEEN 04Z AND 07Z THIS EVENING....WITH A LULL IN WIND
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. PERIODS OF GUSTY WIND MAY RETURN AFTER 18Z
MONDAY...MAINLY IMPACTING KCPR AND KRKS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE WEATHER STORY FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. SOME GUSTY WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOONS...WITH
OTHERWISE QUIET CONDITIONS. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH
THIS TIME RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD POOR SMOKE DISPERSION. THE
MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE AT SOME FAVORED FOOTHILL LOCATIONS WHICH
MAY SEE PERIODS OF FAIR SMOKE DISPERSAL WITH THE PRESENCE OF GUSTY
WIND.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRANHAM
LONG TERM...ALLEN
AVIATION...BRANHAM
FIRE WEATHER...BRANHAM




000
FXUS65 KCYS 072135
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
235 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS PREVENTING DECENT LLVL MIXING
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. MOST LOCATIONS ARE STRUGGLING TO REACH
HIGH WIND CRITERIA...ALTHOUGH A FEW SITES HAVE HIT OR COME VERY
CLOSE ACROSS NRN SIOUX AND DAWES COUNTIES. OTHER AREAS ARE GUSTING
BETWEEN 45 TO 50 MPH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 30 TO 35 MPH.
WILL KEEP THE WARNING GOING FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO CANCEL IT
EARLY. OTHERWISE...COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
I80 CORRIDOR BETWEEN LARAMIE AND RAWLINS WHICH MAY HAVE WESTERLY
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 55 MPH AT TIMES.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN A GOOD AGREEMENT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS...CURRENTLY ALONG THE PACIFIC
COASTLINE...DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA DUE TO NORTHERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S IN THE AFTERNOON ON
MONDAY...AND THEN INTO THE 40S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY WIND CONCERNS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT JUST OFF
THE SURFACE WILL BE WEAKER COMPARED TO THIS WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH
BREEZY OR WINDY CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS.
KEPT TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW MOS ACROSS MOST AREAS DUE TO
A LINGERING SNOWPACK. THIS SNOWPACK SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATER THIS
WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND BREEZY-TO-WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THURS NIGHT WITH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS THE CWA...THEN THE RIDGE SHIFTS
EASTWARD BY FRI/SAT. THE 850 MB CAG-CPR GRADIENT IS A MAXIMIZED AT
45-50 METERS ON WED AFTN AND THEN DECREASES TO 20-30 METERS THROUGH
SAT.  DO NOT ENVISION ANY WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS ACROSS THE
WIND PRONE AREAS.  WITH 700 MB TEMPS OF 0-3C...HIGHS TO THE EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S EACH DAY.  BY
THIS TIME NEXT WEEKEND MUCH OF THE SNOW COVER SHOULD BE GONE ACROSS
LOWER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1045 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

IT WILL BE QUITE WINDY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS TO THE
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. GOOD MIXING AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL
CAUSE NORTHWEST WINDS TO GUST TO 35-45 KTS. THE WINDS WILL
DECREASE SOME AFTER SUNSET BUT STILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. A SCT-TO-BKN LAYER OF CLOUDS WITH BASES 5-10 THOUSAND
FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 225 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK DUE TO A SURFACE SNOWPACK
ACROSS THE AREA AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT NO CONCERNS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ABOVE 30 PERCENT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WY...NONE.

NE...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ002-003-
     019>021-054-055-095-096.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...TJT




000
FXUS63 KUNR 072128
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
228 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

20Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS THE CWA "SQUEEZED" BETWEEN A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND RIDGE OVER MINNESOTA AND THE WESTERN
CONUS...RESPECTIVELY. THIS...ALONG WITH AN EXTREMELY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM A 997MB LOW IN MINNESOTA AND 1034 HIGH IN
WYOMING...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THE VERY
IMPRESSIVE AND POWERFUL WIND EVENT ONGOING IN THE CWA AT THIS
TIME. HAVE ALREADY HAD MULTIPLE HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS ACROSS
THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS...WITH THE HIGHEST OCCURRING IN WASTA AND
SCENIC AT 78MPH. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...BUT STILL EXPECT
BREEZY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 TO 30
MPH AND GUSTS APPROACHING 40MPH.

BY MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN BEGINS TO
DIG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE CWA. WINDS WILL STILL BE
BREEZY MONDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY...BUT SHOULD
DROP DOWN BY EVENING WHEN THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION SETS IN. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN NW THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH UPPER
RIDGE DOMINATING THE WRN CONUS. BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL PUSH INTO OUR
ERN HALF OF ZONES TUESDAY AS UPPER WAVE DROPS SEWD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. COULD BE SOME -SHRA/-SHSN WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THIS SHORTWAVE. WARMER AIR WILL
THEN PUSH BACK INTO THE ENTIRE CWFA ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE
EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW ANOTHER BACKDOOR CDFNT TO
SLIDE INTO OUR ERN ZONES LATE THURSDAY AND MAY PROVIDE ANOTHER
SMALL OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT PCPN. FOR NOW WILL KEEP WX TYPE SNOW
BUT THERMAL PROFILES DO SHOW SOME CHANCE FOR FREEZING DZ/-RA SO
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. WARMER/DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE NRN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

STRONG NW WINDS WILL CONT TODAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH
50-60KT GUSTS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY OVER WEST CENTRAL SD. THE WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074.

WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR WYZ057-071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15




000
FXUS63 KUNR 072128
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
228 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

20Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS THE CWA "SQUEEZED" BETWEEN A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND RIDGE OVER MINNESOTA AND THE WESTERN
CONUS...RESPECTIVELY. THIS...ALONG WITH AN EXTREMELY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM A 997MB LOW IN MINNESOTA AND 1034 HIGH IN
WYOMING...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THE VERY
IMPRESSIVE AND POWERFUL WIND EVENT ONGOING IN THE CWA AT THIS
TIME. HAVE ALREADY HAD MULTIPLE HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS ACROSS
THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS...WITH THE HIGHEST OCCURRING IN WASTA AND
SCENIC AT 78MPH. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...BUT STILL EXPECT
BREEZY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 TO 30
MPH AND GUSTS APPROACHING 40MPH.

BY MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN BEGINS TO
DIG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE CWA. WINDS WILL STILL BE
BREEZY MONDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY...BUT SHOULD
DROP DOWN BY EVENING WHEN THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION SETS IN. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN NW THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH UPPER
RIDGE DOMINATING THE WRN CONUS. BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL PUSH INTO OUR
ERN HALF OF ZONES TUESDAY AS UPPER WAVE DROPS SEWD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. COULD BE SOME -SHRA/-SHSN WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THIS SHORTWAVE. WARMER AIR WILL
THEN PUSH BACK INTO THE ENTIRE CWFA ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE
EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW ANOTHER BACKDOOR CDFNT TO
SLIDE INTO OUR ERN ZONES LATE THURSDAY AND MAY PROVIDE ANOTHER
SMALL OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT PCPN. FOR NOW WILL KEEP WX TYPE SNOW
BUT THERMAL PROFILES DO SHOW SOME CHANCE FOR FREEZING DZ/-RA SO
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. WARMER/DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE NRN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

STRONG NW WINDS WILL CONT TODAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH
50-60KT GUSTS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY OVER WEST CENTRAL SD. THE WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074.

WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR WYZ057-071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15



000
FXUS63 KUNR 071756
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1056 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1012 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

ADDED PARTS OF FALL RIVER COUNTY TO HIGH WIND WARNING AS LATEST
DATA INDICATES THEY WILL REACH THAT CRITERIA. OTHERWISE...REST OF
FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THE DAY. HAVE ALREADY HAD MULTIPLE HURRICANE
FORCE WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS...THE HIGHEST SO
FAR BEING WASTA AT 78MPH. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
GUSTS OVER 80MPH BEFORE THE DAY ENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 205 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

NORTHERN PLAINS REGION IS UNDER STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH
INITIAL UPPER WAVE NOW PUSHING INTO MN...AND NEXT WAVE OVER MT/ND.
SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN MN IS CREATING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE DAKOTAS AND SOME BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 20-30 KTS.
SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY...AND TEMPS ARE IN THE 30S.

NEXT UPPER WAVE WILL QUICKLY SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING THE
NEXT AND MORE WIDESPREAD ROUND OF VERY STRONG WINDS. COLD AIR WILL
CONTINUE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION...WITH BEST PRESSURE RISES AND
ISALLOBARIC WINDS AROUND MIDDAY...RESULTING IN WINDS OF 40-50 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 65-75 MPH. CONSIDERED THE POSSIBILITY OF EXPANDING
WARNINGS TO THE REST OF NORTHEASTERN WY...AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL OF 50KT+ WINDS MIXING DOWN. HOWEVER NAM/GFS/ECM IN
AGREEMENT THAT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT AS
IMPRESSIVE OVER NORTHEASTERN WY AS THEY ARE OVER THE DAKOTAS...AND
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW JUST 25-30KT WINDS FOR THAT AREA. WILL
LEAVE HEADLINES AS THEY ARE...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG
GUSTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS EVENING...STILL REMAINING
BREEZY OVERNIGHT. A FEW LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL SD THIS AFTERNOON AS WAVE CROSSES THE AREA. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MONDAY...WITH
CONTINUED FAST NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. SOMEWHAT TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS BREEZY ON MONDAY. UNDER PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 205 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN NW THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH
UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE WRN CONUS. BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL PUSH INTO
OUR ERN HALF OF ZONES TUESDAY AS UPPER WAVE DROPS SEWD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. COULD BE SOME -SN WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT SO HAVE ADDED SOME LOW POPS. WARMER AIR WILL
THEN PUSH BACK INTO THE ENTIRE CWFA ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE
EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW ANOTHER BACKDOOR CDFNT TO
SLIDE INTO OUR ERN ZONES LATE THURSDAY AND MAY PROVIDE ANOTHER SMALL
OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT PCPN. FOR NOW WILL KEEP WX TYPE SNOW BUT
THERMAL PROFILES DO SHOW SOME CHANCE FOR FREEZING PCPN SO WILL KEEP
AN EYE ON THIS. WARMER/DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY
AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE NRN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

STRONG NW WINDS WILL CONT TODAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH
50-60KT GUSTS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY OVER WEST CENTRAL SD. THE WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     SDZ001-002-012>014-024>026-028>032-041-043-044-046-047-049-
     072>074.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ027-042.

WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR WYZ057-071.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MCKEMY
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC




000
FXUS63 KUNR 071756
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1056 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1012 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

ADDED PARTS OF FALL RIVER COUNTY TO HIGH WIND WARNING AS LATEST
DATA INDICATES THEY WILL REACH THAT CRITERIA. OTHERWISE...REST OF
FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THE DAY. HAVE ALREADY HAD MULTIPLE HURRICANE
FORCE WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS...THE HIGHEST SO
FAR BEING WASTA AT 78MPH. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
GUSTS OVER 80MPH BEFORE THE DAY ENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 205 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

NORTHERN PLAINS REGION IS UNDER STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH
INITIAL UPPER WAVE NOW PUSHING INTO MN...AND NEXT WAVE OVER MT/ND.
SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN MN IS CREATING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE DAKOTAS AND SOME BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 20-30 KTS.
SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY...AND TEMPS ARE IN THE 30S.

NEXT UPPER WAVE WILL QUICKLY SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING THE
NEXT AND MORE WIDESPREAD ROUND OF VERY STRONG WINDS. COLD AIR WILL
CONTINUE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION...WITH BEST PRESSURE RISES AND
ISALLOBARIC WINDS AROUND MIDDAY...RESULTING IN WINDS OF 40-50 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 65-75 MPH. CONSIDERED THE POSSIBILITY OF EXPANDING
WARNINGS TO THE REST OF NORTHEASTERN WY...AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL OF 50KT+ WINDS MIXING DOWN. HOWEVER NAM/GFS/ECM IN
AGREEMENT THAT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT AS
IMPRESSIVE OVER NORTHEASTERN WY AS THEY ARE OVER THE DAKOTAS...AND
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW JUST 25-30KT WINDS FOR THAT AREA. WILL
LEAVE HEADLINES AS THEY ARE...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG
GUSTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS EVENING...STILL REMAINING
BREEZY OVERNIGHT. A FEW LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL SD THIS AFTERNOON AS WAVE CROSSES THE AREA. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MONDAY...WITH
CONTINUED FAST NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. SOMEWHAT TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS BREEZY ON MONDAY. UNDER PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 205 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN NW THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH
UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE WRN CONUS. BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL PUSH INTO
OUR ERN HALF OF ZONES TUESDAY AS UPPER WAVE DROPS SEWD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. COULD BE SOME -SN WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT SO HAVE ADDED SOME LOW POPS. WARMER AIR WILL
THEN PUSH BACK INTO THE ENTIRE CWFA ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE
EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW ANOTHER BACKDOOR CDFNT TO
SLIDE INTO OUR ERN ZONES LATE THURSDAY AND MAY PROVIDE ANOTHER SMALL
OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT PCPN. FOR NOW WILL KEEP WX TYPE SNOW BUT
THERMAL PROFILES DO SHOW SOME CHANCE FOR FREEZING PCPN SO WILL KEEP
AN EYE ON THIS. WARMER/DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY
AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE NRN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

STRONG NW WINDS WILL CONT TODAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH
50-60KT GUSTS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY OVER WEST CENTRAL SD. THE WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     SDZ001-002-012>014-024>026-028>032-041-043-044-046-047-049-
     072>074.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ027-042.

WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR WYZ057-071.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MCKEMY
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC




000
FXUS63 KUNR 071756
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1056 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1012 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

ADDED PARTS OF FALL RIVER COUNTY TO HIGH WIND WARNING AS LATEST
DATA INDICATES THEY WILL REACH THAT CRITERIA. OTHERWISE...REST OF
FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THE DAY. HAVE ALREADY HAD MULTIPLE HURRICANE
FORCE WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS...THE HIGHEST SO
FAR BEING WASTA AT 78MPH. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
GUSTS OVER 80MPH BEFORE THE DAY ENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 205 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

NORTHERN PLAINS REGION IS UNDER STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH
INITIAL UPPER WAVE NOW PUSHING INTO MN...AND NEXT WAVE OVER MT/ND.
SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN MN IS CREATING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE DAKOTAS AND SOME BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 20-30 KTS.
SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY...AND TEMPS ARE IN THE 30S.

NEXT UPPER WAVE WILL QUICKLY SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING THE
NEXT AND MORE WIDESPREAD ROUND OF VERY STRONG WINDS. COLD AIR WILL
CONTINUE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION...WITH BEST PRESSURE RISES AND
ISALLOBARIC WINDS AROUND MIDDAY...RESULTING IN WINDS OF 40-50 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 65-75 MPH. CONSIDERED THE POSSIBILITY OF EXPANDING
WARNINGS TO THE REST OF NORTHEASTERN WY...AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL OF 50KT+ WINDS MIXING DOWN. HOWEVER NAM/GFS/ECM IN
AGREEMENT THAT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT AS
IMPRESSIVE OVER NORTHEASTERN WY AS THEY ARE OVER THE DAKOTAS...AND
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW JUST 25-30KT WINDS FOR THAT AREA. WILL
LEAVE HEADLINES AS THEY ARE...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG
GUSTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS EVENING...STILL REMAINING
BREEZY OVERNIGHT. A FEW LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL SD THIS AFTERNOON AS WAVE CROSSES THE AREA. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MONDAY...WITH
CONTINUED FAST NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. SOMEWHAT TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS BREEZY ON MONDAY. UNDER PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 205 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN NW THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH
UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE WRN CONUS. BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL PUSH INTO
OUR ERN HALF OF ZONES TUESDAY AS UPPER WAVE DROPS SEWD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. COULD BE SOME -SN WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT SO HAVE ADDED SOME LOW POPS. WARMER AIR WILL
THEN PUSH BACK INTO THE ENTIRE CWFA ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE
EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW ANOTHER BACKDOOR CDFNT TO
SLIDE INTO OUR ERN ZONES LATE THURSDAY AND MAY PROVIDE ANOTHER SMALL
OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT PCPN. FOR NOW WILL KEEP WX TYPE SNOW BUT
THERMAL PROFILES DO SHOW SOME CHANCE FOR FREEZING PCPN SO WILL KEEP
AN EYE ON THIS. WARMER/DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY
AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE NRN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

STRONG NW WINDS WILL CONT TODAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH
50-60KT GUSTS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY OVER WEST CENTRAL SD. THE WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     SDZ001-002-012>014-024>026-028>032-041-043-044-046-047-049-
     072>074.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ027-042.

WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR WYZ057-071.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MCKEMY
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC



000
FXUS65 KCYS 071750
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1050 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPDATED FORECAST FOR THE TIMING OF THE WEAK BAND OF SNOW ENTERING
FAR EASTERN WYOMING THIS MORNING. THIS BAND HAS PRODUCED
VISIBILITIES AROUND 1 MILE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA...SO
DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AS IT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEAST
AND WEAKENS.

FOR WINDS TODAY...NEW MOS GUIDANCE IS A WHOLE 10 KNOTS LOWER
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. THIS IS PROBABLY BECAUSE OF
THE SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER OVER THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. WILL
KEEP THE HIGH WIND WARNING GOING FOR NOW SINCE RAPID CITY IS
CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING GUSTS OVER 60 MPH AND SKIES HAVE CLEAR
ACROSS DAWES AND NRN SIOUX COUNTIES...BUT IF WINDS DO NOT
INCREASE DRAMATICALLY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS MAY NEED TO DOWNGRADE
TO AN ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 153 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

TODAY...FORTUNATELY...WIND SPEEDS SLOWLY DECREASING ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AS GRADIENTS RELAX SOMEWHAT AND THUS WILL
LIKELY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE HIGH WIND WARNING THERE.

FLOW ALOFT VEERS TO NORTH NORTHWEST WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR EASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA...100
KNOTS AT 500 MB...AND 60 TO 70 KNOTS AT 700 MB. SOME DOWNWARD
VERTICAL MOTION NOTED AND HOPEFULLY THIS WILL BE ENOUGH...ALONG WITH
DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW...TO AID IN STRONGER WINDS MIXING DOWN TO
THE SURFACE...THUS THE INHERITED HIGH WIND WARNING FOR WESTERN
NEBRASKA LOOKS GOOD.

COMPROMISED FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS MOS
MAXIMUMS AS WE WILL SEE COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY...MAKING FOR TRICKY
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.

TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH FAST NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES...EXPECT SURFACE WINDS TO DECREASE AS THE LOW LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLE. DRY WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AND LACK OF LIFT.

MONDAY...WARMING TREND BEGINS AS HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES START TO
RISE...ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED BY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND AT LEAST SCATTERED MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATING AIRMASS CONTINUES...THUS NOT QUITE AS COLD
AS SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL DRY WITH LACK OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AND LIFT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL KEEP HOLD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
THROUGH TUESDAY...AND WILL FLATTEN A BIT ON WEDNESDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE FEATURE ROUNDS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. WINDS IN THIS
PATTERN WILL REMAIN ON THE BREEZY SIDE...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE ROUNDS
THE RIDGE AND DEEPENS THE LEESIDE PRESSURE TROUGH. HOWEVER...WINDS
IN THE 800-700MB LAYER ARE PROGGED TO ONLY INCREASE TO 35 TO 45
KTS SO HIGH WINDS LOOK UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH 40S/50S EAST AND 30S/40S WEST.
THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE WEST COAST ON THURSDAY AND WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT
WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1045 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

IT WILL BE QUITE WINDY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS TO THE
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. GOOD MIXING AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL
CAUSE NORTHWEST WINDS TO GUST TO 35-45 KTS. THE WINDS WILL
DECREASE SOME AFTER SUNSET BUT STILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. A SCT-TO-BKN LAYER OF CLOUDS WITH BASES 5-10 THOUSAND
FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 153 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

MINIMAL CONCERNS DUE TO RELATIVELY HIGH HUMIDITIES
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND SNOW COVER.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ002-003-
     019>021-054-055-095-096.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TJT
SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN




000
FXUS65 KCYS 071750
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1050 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPDATED FORECAST FOR THE TIMING OF THE WEAK BAND OF SNOW ENTERING
FAR EASTERN WYOMING THIS MORNING. THIS BAND HAS PRODUCED
VISIBILITIES AROUND 1 MILE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA...SO
DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AS IT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEAST
AND WEAKENS.

FOR WINDS TODAY...NEW MOS GUIDANCE IS A WHOLE 10 KNOTS LOWER
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. THIS IS PROBABLY BECAUSE OF
THE SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER OVER THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. WILL
KEEP THE HIGH WIND WARNING GOING FOR NOW SINCE RAPID CITY IS
CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING GUSTS OVER 60 MPH AND SKIES HAVE CLEAR
ACROSS DAWES AND NRN SIOUX COUNTIES...BUT IF WINDS DO NOT
INCREASE DRAMATICALLY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS MAY NEED TO DOWNGRADE
TO AN ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 153 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

TODAY...FORTUNATELY...WIND SPEEDS SLOWLY DECREASING ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AS GRADIENTS RELAX SOMEWHAT AND THUS WILL
LIKELY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE HIGH WIND WARNING THERE.

FLOW ALOFT VEERS TO NORTH NORTHWEST WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR EASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA...100
KNOTS AT 500 MB...AND 60 TO 70 KNOTS AT 700 MB. SOME DOWNWARD
VERTICAL MOTION NOTED AND HOPEFULLY THIS WILL BE ENOUGH...ALONG WITH
DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW...TO AID IN STRONGER WINDS MIXING DOWN TO
THE SURFACE...THUS THE INHERITED HIGH WIND WARNING FOR WESTERN
NEBRASKA LOOKS GOOD.

COMPROMISED FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS MOS
MAXIMUMS AS WE WILL SEE COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY...MAKING FOR TRICKY
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.

TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH FAST NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES...EXPECT SURFACE WINDS TO DECREASE AS THE LOW LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLE. DRY WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AND LACK OF LIFT.

MONDAY...WARMING TREND BEGINS AS HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES START TO
RISE...ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED BY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND AT LEAST SCATTERED MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATING AIRMASS CONTINUES...THUS NOT QUITE AS COLD
AS SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL DRY WITH LACK OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AND LIFT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL KEEP HOLD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
THROUGH TUESDAY...AND WILL FLATTEN A BIT ON WEDNESDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE FEATURE ROUNDS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. WINDS IN THIS
PATTERN WILL REMAIN ON THE BREEZY SIDE...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE ROUNDS
THE RIDGE AND DEEPENS THE LEESIDE PRESSURE TROUGH. HOWEVER...WINDS
IN THE 800-700MB LAYER ARE PROGGED TO ONLY INCREASE TO 35 TO 45
KTS SO HIGH WINDS LOOK UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH 40S/50S EAST AND 30S/40S WEST.
THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE WEST COAST ON THURSDAY AND WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT
WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1045 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

IT WILL BE QUITE WINDY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS TO THE
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. GOOD MIXING AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL
CAUSE NORTHWEST WINDS TO GUST TO 35-45 KTS. THE WINDS WILL
DECREASE SOME AFTER SUNSET BUT STILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. A SCT-TO-BKN LAYER OF CLOUDS WITH BASES 5-10 THOUSAND
FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 153 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

MINIMAL CONCERNS DUE TO RELATIVELY HIGH HUMIDITIES
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND SNOW COVER.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ002-003-
     019>021-054-055-095-096.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TJT
SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN




000
FXUS65 KRIW 071727
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1027 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

NOW THAT THE DRY PACIFIC COOL FRONT HAS SWEPT ACROSS THE AREA...THE
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN WIND CORRIDOR HAVE BEEN
REPLACED WITH STRONG WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS SWEETWATER
COUNTY AND THE WIND RIVER BASIN WHERE CROWHEART GUSTED TO 63 MPH
AND KRIW 42 MPH. THE BRUNT OF THE 700MB COLD FRONT TRACKED ACROSS
JOHNSON COUNTY WHERE NW WINDS HAVE ALSO INCREASED BUT NOT TO THE
SAME MAGNITUDE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY EASE OFF
THROUGH MONDAY AS A PROMINENT RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WNW
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BUT WILL INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WIND CORRIDOR BUT NOT AS
STRONG AS SATURDAY. SINCE THERE IS STILL QUITE A DEEP BLANKET OF
SNOW ACROSS THIS AREA...ESPECIALLY AROUND CPR...THERE WILL STILL
LIKELY BE SOME DRIFTING SNOW BUT THE VISIBILITY SHOULD NOT BE
AFFECTED AS MUCH BY ANY BLOWING SNOW. BYG/JOHNSON COUNTY SHOULD
SEE A RESURGENCE OF NW WIND LATER THIS MORNING BEHIND THE NEXT AND
LAST SHORTWAVE TO MAINLY AFFECT NORTHEAST WY THIS MORNING. BY
MONDAY...WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER. EXCEPT FOR A FEW ISOLATED
SNOW FLURRIES OR AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR WEST MTNS THIS
MORNING...THE SHORT TERM FCST WILL BE PRECIP FREE. BY TUESDAY
MORNING...ENOUGH WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL TAKE PLACE TO
STEEPEN THE POSITIVE LAPSE RATE FOR PATCHY FOG TO FORM IN THE SNOW
COVERED BASINS AND VALLEYS. TEMPS WILL BE WARMING UP THROUGH MID
WEEK WITH THE TRAPPED BASINS AND VALLEY FOLLOWING BEHIND.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY EXCEPT FOR SOME WESTERN
VALLEYS WHERE STEEP INVERSIONS SET UP.  NEXT WEEKEND...A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY THE WEST WITH
WINDY AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WYOMING.

DISCUSSION...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND DEAMPLIFY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE TEMPERATURES...WITH
JACKSON AND STAR VALLEYS THE MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN UNDER STEEP
INVERSIONS...WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND HIGHS REMAINING
MOSTLY BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THURSDAY. ON THE OTHER END...SNOW-
FREE AREAS IN THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS...BUFFALO AND CODY...WILL SEE
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S THROUGH SATURDAY. THE BIGGEST QUESTION
WILL BE THE SNOW COVERED AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTH INTO NATRONA AND
FREMONT COUNTIES. THESE AREAS WILL BE SLOWER TO WARM UP AS THE
SNOWPACK MELTS OFF. FORECAST CONTINUES TO KEEP THESE AREAS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE NUMBERS. ON THURSDAY...SOME STRENGTHENING
OF MID-LEVEL NW FLOW AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION ON THURSDAY MAY BE
ENOUGH MIX OUT THE LOWER BIGHORN AND WIND RIVER BASINS.

ECMWF AND GFS SHOW SOME SPREAD WITH THE DETAILS OF NEXT PACIFIC
TROUGH THAT WILL SPLIT THROUGH THE RIDGE NEXT WEEKEND...BUT TIMING
IS GOOD ENOUGH SHOW COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF SNOW IN THE WEST...WINDY AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL
WYOMING BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY TO FORECAST INCREASING CHANCES OF
SNOW INTO THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH FR CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY...WITH WINDY AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY MILD BEHIND
THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING. AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
AREA WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF GUSTY WIND. MOST GUSTY WIND WILL
RELAX BY 07Z THIS EVENING...WITH SOME CENTRAL AND WESTERN
LOCATIONS SEEING WIND RELAX BY 00Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

PERIODS OF STRONG WIND WILL REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWEETWATER
COUNTY...THE WIND RIVER BASIN AND NORTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY THROUGH
THIS MORNING. LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL ALSO REMAIN PRESENT OVER AREAS
OF WESTERN WYOMING...WITH SNOWFALL GENERALLY TAPERING OFF THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GAIN DOMINANCE OVER
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH A RETURN OF GUSTY WIND IS
POSSIBLE. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES FURTHER DURING THE WORK
WEEK...WIND WILL RELAX ACROSS THE AREA. MIXING HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...KEEPING SMOKE
DISPERSAL CATEGORIES ON THE LOWER SIDE.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...BRANHAM
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON




000
FXUS65 KRIW 071727
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1027 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

NOW THAT THE DRY PACIFIC COOL FRONT HAS SWEPT ACROSS THE AREA...THE
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN WIND CORRIDOR HAVE BEEN
REPLACED WITH STRONG WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS SWEETWATER
COUNTY AND THE WIND RIVER BASIN WHERE CROWHEART GUSTED TO 63 MPH
AND KRIW 42 MPH. THE BRUNT OF THE 700MB COLD FRONT TRACKED ACROSS
JOHNSON COUNTY WHERE NW WINDS HAVE ALSO INCREASED BUT NOT TO THE
SAME MAGNITUDE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY EASE OFF
THROUGH MONDAY AS A PROMINENT RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WNW
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BUT WILL INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WIND CORRIDOR BUT NOT AS
STRONG AS SATURDAY. SINCE THERE IS STILL QUITE A DEEP BLANKET OF
SNOW ACROSS THIS AREA...ESPECIALLY AROUND CPR...THERE WILL STILL
LIKELY BE SOME DRIFTING SNOW BUT THE VISIBILITY SHOULD NOT BE
AFFECTED AS MUCH BY ANY BLOWING SNOW. BYG/JOHNSON COUNTY SHOULD
SEE A RESURGENCE OF NW WIND LATER THIS MORNING BEHIND THE NEXT AND
LAST SHORTWAVE TO MAINLY AFFECT NORTHEAST WY THIS MORNING. BY
MONDAY...WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER. EXCEPT FOR A FEW ISOLATED
SNOW FLURRIES OR AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR WEST MTNS THIS
MORNING...THE SHORT TERM FCST WILL BE PRECIP FREE. BY TUESDAY
MORNING...ENOUGH WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL TAKE PLACE TO
STEEPEN THE POSITIVE LAPSE RATE FOR PATCHY FOG TO FORM IN THE SNOW
COVERED BASINS AND VALLEYS. TEMPS WILL BE WARMING UP THROUGH MID
WEEK WITH THE TRAPPED BASINS AND VALLEY FOLLOWING BEHIND.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY EXCEPT FOR SOME WESTERN
VALLEYS WHERE STEEP INVERSIONS SET UP.  NEXT WEEKEND...A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY THE WEST WITH
WINDY AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WYOMING.

DISCUSSION...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND DEAMPLIFY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE TEMPERATURES...WITH
JACKSON AND STAR VALLEYS THE MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN UNDER STEEP
INVERSIONS...WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND HIGHS REMAINING
MOSTLY BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THURSDAY. ON THE OTHER END...SNOW-
FREE AREAS IN THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS...BUFFALO AND CODY...WILL SEE
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S THROUGH SATURDAY. THE BIGGEST QUESTION
WILL BE THE SNOW COVERED AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTH INTO NATRONA AND
FREMONT COUNTIES. THESE AREAS WILL BE SLOWER TO WARM UP AS THE
SNOWPACK MELTS OFF. FORECAST CONTINUES TO KEEP THESE AREAS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE NUMBERS. ON THURSDAY...SOME STRENGTHENING
OF MID-LEVEL NW FLOW AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION ON THURSDAY MAY BE
ENOUGH MIX OUT THE LOWER BIGHORN AND WIND RIVER BASINS.

ECMWF AND GFS SHOW SOME SPREAD WITH THE DETAILS OF NEXT PACIFIC
TROUGH THAT WILL SPLIT THROUGH THE RIDGE NEXT WEEKEND...BUT TIMING
IS GOOD ENOUGH SHOW COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF SNOW IN THE WEST...WINDY AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL
WYOMING BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY TO FORECAST INCREASING CHANCES OF
SNOW INTO THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH FR CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY...WITH WINDY AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY MILD BEHIND
THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING. AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
AREA WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF GUSTY WIND. MOST GUSTY WIND WILL
RELAX BY 07Z THIS EVENING...WITH SOME CENTRAL AND WESTERN
LOCATIONS SEEING WIND RELAX BY 00Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

PERIODS OF STRONG WIND WILL REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWEETWATER
COUNTY...THE WIND RIVER BASIN AND NORTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY THROUGH
THIS MORNING. LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL ALSO REMAIN PRESENT OVER AREAS
OF WESTERN WYOMING...WITH SNOWFALL GENERALLY TAPERING OFF THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GAIN DOMINANCE OVER
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH A RETURN OF GUSTY WIND IS
POSSIBLE. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES FURTHER DURING THE WORK
WEEK...WIND WILL RELAX ACROSS THE AREA. MIXING HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...KEEPING SMOKE
DISPERSAL CATEGORIES ON THE LOWER SIDE.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...BRANHAM
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON




000
FXUS65 KRIW 071727
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1027 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

NOW THAT THE DRY PACIFIC COOL FRONT HAS SWEPT ACROSS THE AREA...THE
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN WIND CORRIDOR HAVE BEEN
REPLACED WITH STRONG WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS SWEETWATER
COUNTY AND THE WIND RIVER BASIN WHERE CROWHEART GUSTED TO 63 MPH
AND KRIW 42 MPH. THE BRUNT OF THE 700MB COLD FRONT TRACKED ACROSS
JOHNSON COUNTY WHERE NW WINDS HAVE ALSO INCREASED BUT NOT TO THE
SAME MAGNITUDE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY EASE OFF
THROUGH MONDAY AS A PROMINENT RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WNW
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BUT WILL INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WIND CORRIDOR BUT NOT AS
STRONG AS SATURDAY. SINCE THERE IS STILL QUITE A DEEP BLANKET OF
SNOW ACROSS THIS AREA...ESPECIALLY AROUND CPR...THERE WILL STILL
LIKELY BE SOME DRIFTING SNOW BUT THE VISIBILITY SHOULD NOT BE
AFFECTED AS MUCH BY ANY BLOWING SNOW. BYG/JOHNSON COUNTY SHOULD
SEE A RESURGENCE OF NW WIND LATER THIS MORNING BEHIND THE NEXT AND
LAST SHORTWAVE TO MAINLY AFFECT NORTHEAST WY THIS MORNING. BY
MONDAY...WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER. EXCEPT FOR A FEW ISOLATED
SNOW FLURRIES OR AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR WEST MTNS THIS
MORNING...THE SHORT TERM FCST WILL BE PRECIP FREE. BY TUESDAY
MORNING...ENOUGH WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL TAKE PLACE TO
STEEPEN THE POSITIVE LAPSE RATE FOR PATCHY FOG TO FORM IN THE SNOW
COVERED BASINS AND VALLEYS. TEMPS WILL BE WARMING UP THROUGH MID
WEEK WITH THE TRAPPED BASINS AND VALLEY FOLLOWING BEHIND.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY EXCEPT FOR SOME WESTERN
VALLEYS WHERE STEEP INVERSIONS SET UP.  NEXT WEEKEND...A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY THE WEST WITH
WINDY AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WYOMING.

DISCUSSION...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND DEAMPLIFY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE TEMPERATURES...WITH
JACKSON AND STAR VALLEYS THE MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN UNDER STEEP
INVERSIONS...WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND HIGHS REMAINING
MOSTLY BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THURSDAY. ON THE OTHER END...SNOW-
FREE AREAS IN THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS...BUFFALO AND CODY...WILL SEE
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S THROUGH SATURDAY. THE BIGGEST QUESTION
WILL BE THE SNOW COVERED AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTH INTO NATRONA AND
FREMONT COUNTIES. THESE AREAS WILL BE SLOWER TO WARM UP AS THE
SNOWPACK MELTS OFF. FORECAST CONTINUES TO KEEP THESE AREAS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE NUMBERS. ON THURSDAY...SOME STRENGTHENING
OF MID-LEVEL NW FLOW AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION ON THURSDAY MAY BE
ENOUGH MIX OUT THE LOWER BIGHORN AND WIND RIVER BASINS.

ECMWF AND GFS SHOW SOME SPREAD WITH THE DETAILS OF NEXT PACIFIC
TROUGH THAT WILL SPLIT THROUGH THE RIDGE NEXT WEEKEND...BUT TIMING
IS GOOD ENOUGH SHOW COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF SNOW IN THE WEST...WINDY AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL
WYOMING BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY TO FORECAST INCREASING CHANCES OF
SNOW INTO THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH FR CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY...WITH WINDY AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY MILD BEHIND
THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING. AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
AREA WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF GUSTY WIND. MOST GUSTY WIND WILL
RELAX BY 07Z THIS EVENING...WITH SOME CENTRAL AND WESTERN
LOCATIONS SEEING WIND RELAX BY 00Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

PERIODS OF STRONG WIND WILL REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWEETWATER
COUNTY...THE WIND RIVER BASIN AND NORTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY THROUGH
THIS MORNING. LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL ALSO REMAIN PRESENT OVER AREAS
OF WESTERN WYOMING...WITH SNOWFALL GENERALLY TAPERING OFF THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GAIN DOMINANCE OVER
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH A RETURN OF GUSTY WIND IS
POSSIBLE. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES FURTHER DURING THE WORK
WEEK...WIND WILL RELAX ACROSS THE AREA. MIXING HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...KEEPING SMOKE
DISPERSAL CATEGORIES ON THE LOWER SIDE.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...BRANHAM
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON



000
FXUS63 KUNR 071715
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1015 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1012 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

ADDED PARTS OF FALL RIVER COUNTY TO HIGH WIND WARNING AS LATEST
DATA INDICATES THEY WILL REACH THAT CRITERIA. OTHERWISE...REST OF
FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THE DAY. HAVE ALREADY HAD MULTIPLE HURRICANE
FORCE WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS...THE HIGHEST SO
FAR BEING WASTA AT 78MPH. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
GUSTS OVER 80MPH BEFORE THE DAY ENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 205 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

NORTHERN PLAINS REGION IS UNDER STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH
INITIAL UPPER WAVE NOW PUSHING INTO MN...AND NEXT WAVE OVER MT/ND.
SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN MN IS CREATING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE DAKOTAS AND SOME BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 20-30 KTS.
SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY...AND TEMPS ARE IN THE 30S.

NEXT UPPER WAVE WILL QUICKLY SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING THE
NEXT AND MORE WIDESPREAD ROUND OF VERY STRONG WINDS. COLD AIR WILL
CONTINUE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION...WITH BEST PRESSURE RISES AND
ISALLOBARIC WINDS AROUND MIDDAY...RESULTING IN WINDS OF 40-50 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 65-75 MPH. CONSIDERED THE POSSIBILITY OF EXPANDING
WARNINGS TO THE REST OF NORTHEASTERN WY...AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL OF 50KT+ WINDS MIXING DOWN. HOWEVER NAM/GFS/ECM IN
AGREEMENT THAT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT AS
IMPRESSIVE OVER NORTHEASTERN WY AS THEY ARE OVER THE DAKOTAS...AND
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW JUST 25-30KT WINDS FOR THAT AREA. WILL
LEAVE HEADLINES AS THEY ARE...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG
GUSTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS EVENING...STILL REMAINING
BREEZY OVERNIGHT. A FEW LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL SD THIS AFTERNOON AS WAVE CROSSES THE AREA. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MONDAY...WITH
CONTINUED FAST NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. SOMEWHAT TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS BREEZY ON MONDAY. UNDER PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 205 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN NW THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH
UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE WRN CONUS. BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL PUSH INTO
OUR ERN HALF OF ZONES TUESDAY AS UPPER WAVE DROPS SEWD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. COULD BE SOME -SN WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT SO HAVE ADDED SOME LOW POPS. WARMER AIR WILL
THEN PUSH BACK INTO THE ENTIRE CWFA ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE
EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW ANOTHER BACKDOOR CDFNT TO
SLIDE INTO OUR ERN ZONES LATE THURSDAY AND MAY PROVIDE ANOTHER SMALL
OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT PCPN. FOR NOW WILL KEEP WX TYPE SNOW BUT
THERMAL PROFILES DO SHOW SOME CHANCE FOR FREEZING PCPN SO WILL KEEP
AN EYE ON THIS. WARMER/DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY
AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE NRN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 205 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

AREAS OF MVFR CIGS PRIMARILY IN THE NRN BLKHLS WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE THIS MRNG. THE BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE THE STRONG NW
WINDS DEVELOPING TODAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH 50-60KT GUSTS
EXPECTED ESPECIALLY OVER NWRN SD. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TONIGHT.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     SDZ001-002-012>014-024>026-028>032-041-043-044-046-047-049-
     072>074.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ027-042.

WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR WYZ057-071.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MCKEMY
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON



000
FXUS63 KUNR 071715
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1015 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1012 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

ADDED PARTS OF FALL RIVER COUNTY TO HIGH WIND WARNING AS LATEST
DATA INDICATES THEY WILL REACH THAT CRITERIA. OTHERWISE...REST OF
FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THE DAY. HAVE ALREADY HAD MULTIPLE HURRICANE
FORCE WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS...THE HIGHEST SO
FAR BEING WASTA AT 78MPH. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
GUSTS OVER 80MPH BEFORE THE DAY ENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 205 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

NORTHERN PLAINS REGION IS UNDER STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH
INITIAL UPPER WAVE NOW PUSHING INTO MN...AND NEXT WAVE OVER MT/ND.
SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN MN IS CREATING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE DAKOTAS AND SOME BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 20-30 KTS.
SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY...AND TEMPS ARE IN THE 30S.

NEXT UPPER WAVE WILL QUICKLY SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING THE
NEXT AND MORE WIDESPREAD ROUND OF VERY STRONG WINDS. COLD AIR WILL
CONTINUE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION...WITH BEST PRESSURE RISES AND
ISALLOBARIC WINDS AROUND MIDDAY...RESULTING IN WINDS OF 40-50 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 65-75 MPH. CONSIDERED THE POSSIBILITY OF EXPANDING
WARNINGS TO THE REST OF NORTHEASTERN WY...AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL OF 50KT+ WINDS MIXING DOWN. HOWEVER NAM/GFS/ECM IN
AGREEMENT THAT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT AS
IMPRESSIVE OVER NORTHEASTERN WY AS THEY ARE OVER THE DAKOTAS...AND
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW JUST 25-30KT WINDS FOR THAT AREA. WILL
LEAVE HEADLINES AS THEY ARE...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG
GUSTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS EVENING...STILL REMAINING
BREEZY OVERNIGHT. A FEW LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL SD THIS AFTERNOON AS WAVE CROSSES THE AREA. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MONDAY...WITH
CONTINUED FAST NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. SOMEWHAT TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS BREEZY ON MONDAY. UNDER PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 205 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN NW THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH
UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE WRN CONUS. BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL PUSH INTO
OUR ERN HALF OF ZONES TUESDAY AS UPPER WAVE DROPS SEWD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. COULD BE SOME -SN WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT SO HAVE ADDED SOME LOW POPS. WARMER AIR WILL
THEN PUSH BACK INTO THE ENTIRE CWFA ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE
EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW ANOTHER BACKDOOR CDFNT TO
SLIDE INTO OUR ERN ZONES LATE THURSDAY AND MAY PROVIDE ANOTHER SMALL
OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT PCPN. FOR NOW WILL KEEP WX TYPE SNOW BUT
THERMAL PROFILES DO SHOW SOME CHANCE FOR FREEZING PCPN SO WILL KEEP
AN EYE ON THIS. WARMER/DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY
AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE NRN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 205 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

AREAS OF MVFR CIGS PRIMARILY IN THE NRN BLKHLS WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE THIS MRNG. THE BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE THE STRONG NW
WINDS DEVELOPING TODAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH 50-60KT GUSTS
EXPECTED ESPECIALLY OVER NWRN SD. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TONIGHT.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     SDZ001-002-012>014-024>026-028>032-041-043-044-046-047-049-
     072>074.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ027-042.

WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR WYZ057-071.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MCKEMY
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 071715
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1015 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1012 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

ADDED PARTS OF FALL RIVER COUNTY TO HIGH WIND WARNING AS LATEST
DATA INDICATES THEY WILL REACH THAT CRITERIA. OTHERWISE...REST OF
FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THE DAY. HAVE ALREADY HAD MULTIPLE HURRICANE
FORCE WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS...THE HIGHEST SO
FAR BEING WASTA AT 78MPH. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
GUSTS OVER 80MPH BEFORE THE DAY ENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 205 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

NORTHERN PLAINS REGION IS UNDER STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH
INITIAL UPPER WAVE NOW PUSHING INTO MN...AND NEXT WAVE OVER MT/ND.
SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN MN IS CREATING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE DAKOTAS AND SOME BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 20-30 KTS.
SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY...AND TEMPS ARE IN THE 30S.

NEXT UPPER WAVE WILL QUICKLY SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING THE
NEXT AND MORE WIDESPREAD ROUND OF VERY STRONG WINDS. COLD AIR WILL
CONTINUE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION...WITH BEST PRESSURE RISES AND
ISALLOBARIC WINDS AROUND MIDDAY...RESULTING IN WINDS OF 40-50 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 65-75 MPH. CONSIDERED THE POSSIBILITY OF EXPANDING
WARNINGS TO THE REST OF NORTHEASTERN WY...AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL OF 50KT+ WINDS MIXING DOWN. HOWEVER NAM/GFS/ECM IN
AGREEMENT THAT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT AS
IMPRESSIVE OVER NORTHEASTERN WY AS THEY ARE OVER THE DAKOTAS...AND
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW JUST 25-30KT WINDS FOR THAT AREA. WILL
LEAVE HEADLINES AS THEY ARE...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG
GUSTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS EVENING...STILL REMAINING
BREEZY OVERNIGHT. A FEW LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL SD THIS AFTERNOON AS WAVE CROSSES THE AREA. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MONDAY...WITH
CONTINUED FAST NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. SOMEWHAT TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS BREEZY ON MONDAY. UNDER PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 205 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN NW THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH
UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE WRN CONUS. BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL PUSH INTO
OUR ERN HALF OF ZONES TUESDAY AS UPPER WAVE DROPS SEWD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. COULD BE SOME -SN WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT SO HAVE ADDED SOME LOW POPS. WARMER AIR WILL
THEN PUSH BACK INTO THE ENTIRE CWFA ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE
EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW ANOTHER BACKDOOR CDFNT TO
SLIDE INTO OUR ERN ZONES LATE THURSDAY AND MAY PROVIDE ANOTHER SMALL
OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT PCPN. FOR NOW WILL KEEP WX TYPE SNOW BUT
THERMAL PROFILES DO SHOW SOME CHANCE FOR FREEZING PCPN SO WILL KEEP
AN EYE ON THIS. WARMER/DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY
AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE NRN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 205 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

AREAS OF MVFR CIGS PRIMARILY IN THE NRN BLKHLS WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE THIS MRNG. THE BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE THE STRONG NW
WINDS DEVELOPING TODAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH 50-60KT GUSTS
EXPECTED ESPECIALLY OVER NWRN SD. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TONIGHT.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     SDZ001-002-012>014-024>026-028>032-041-043-044-046-047-049-
     072>074.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ027-042.

WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR WYZ057-071.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MCKEMY
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON




000
FXUS65 KCYS 071633
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
933 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPDATED FORECAST FOR THE TIMING OF THE WEAK BAND OF SNOW ENTERING
FAR EASTERN WYOMING THIS MORNING. THIS BAND HAS PRODUCED
VISIBILITIES AROUND 1 MILE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA...SO
DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AS IT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEAST
AND WEAKENS.

FOR WINDS TODAY...NEW MOS GUIDANCE IS A WHOLE 10 KNOTS LOWER
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. THIS IS PROBABLY BECAUSE OF
THE SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER OVER THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. WILL
KEEP THE HIGH WIND WARNING GOING FOR NOW SINCE RAPID CITY IS
CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING GUSTS OVER 60 MPH AND SKIES HAVE CLEAR
ACROSS DAWES AND NRN SIOUX COUNTIES...BUT IF WINDS DO NOT
INCREASE DRAMATICALLY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS MAY NEED TO DOWNGRADE
TO AN ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 153 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

TODAY...FORTUNATELY...WIND SPEEDS SLOWLY DECREASING ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AS GRADIENTS RELAX SOMEWHAT AND THUS WILL
LIKELY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE HIGH WIND WARNING THERE.

FLOW ALOFT VEERS TO NORTH NORTHWEST WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR EASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA...100
KNOTS AT 500 MB...AND 60 TO 70 KNOTS AT 700 MB. SOME DOWNWARD
VERTICAL MOTION NOTED AND HOPEFULLY THIS WILL BE ENOUGH...ALONG WITH
DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW...TO AID IN STRONGER WINDS MIXING DOWN TO
THE SURFACE...THUS THE INHERITED HIGH WIND WARNING FOR WESTERN
NEBRASKA LOOKS GOOD.

COMPROMISED FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS MOS
MAXIMUMS AS WE WILL SEE COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY...MAKING FOR TRICKY
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.

TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH FAST NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES...EXPECT SURFACE WINDS TO DECREASE AS THE LOW LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLE. DRY WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AND LACK OF LIFT.

MONDAY...WARMING TREND BEGINS AS HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES START TO
RISE...ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED BY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND AT LEAST SCATTERED MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATING AIRMASS CONTINUES...THUS NOT QUITE AS COLD
AS SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL DRY WITH LACK OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AND LIFT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL KEEP HOLD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
THROUGH TUESDAY...AND WILL FLATTEN A BIT ON WEDNESDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE FEATURE ROUNDS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. WINDS IN THIS
PATTERN WILL REMAIN ON THE BREEZY SIDE...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE ROUNDS
THE RIDGE AND DEEPENS THE LEESIDE PRESSURE TROUGH. HOWEVER...WINDS
IN THE 800-700MB LAYER ARE PROGGED TO ONLY INCREASE TO 35 TO 45
KTS SO HIGH WINDS LOOK UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH 40S/50S EAST AND 30S/40S WEST.
THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE WEST COAST ON THURSDAY AND WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT
WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 503 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN TODAY WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS THE WIND PRONE
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING THIS MORNING...WITH STRONG WINDS
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS OF 35 TO 50 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. FLURRIES
REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THROUGH MID-MORNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
WYOMING AND INTO THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...BUT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. WINDS WILL
STEADILY EASE AFTER SUNSET.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 153 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

MINIMAL CONCERNS DUE TO RELATIVELY HIGH HUMIDITIES
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND SNOW COVER.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ002-003-
     019>021-054-055-095-096.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TJT
SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN




000
FXUS65 KCYS 071203
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
503 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 153 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

TODAY...FORTUNATELY...WIND SPEEDS SLOWLY DECREASING ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AS GRADIENTS RELAX SOMEWHAT AND THUS WILL
LIKELY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE HIGH WIND WARNING THERE.

FLOW ALOFT VEERS TO NORTH NORTHWEST WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR EASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA...100
KNOTS AT 500 MB...AND 60 TO 70 KNOTS AT 700 MB. SOME DOWNWARD
VERTICAL MOTION NOTED AND HOPEFULLY THIS WILL BE ENOUGH...ALONG WITH
DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW...TO AID IN STRONGER WINDS MIXING DOWN TO
THE SURFACE...THUS THE INHERITED HIGH WIND WARNING FOR WESTERN
NEBRASKA LOOKS GOOD.

COMPROMISED FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS MOS
MAXIMUMS AS WE WILL SEE COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY...MAKING FOR TRICKY
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.

TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH FAST NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES...EXPECT SURFACE WINDS TO DECREASE AS THE LOW LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLE. DRY WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AND LACK OF LIFT.

MONDAY...WARMING TREND BEGINS AS HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES START TO
RISE...ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED BY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND AT LEAST SCATTERED MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATING AIRMASS CONTINUES...THUS NOT QUITE AS COLD
AS SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL DRY WITH LACK OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AND LIFT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL KEEP HOLD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
THROUGH TUESDAY...AND WILL FLATTEN A BIT ON WEDNESDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE FEATURE ROUNDS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. WINDS IN THIS
PATTERN WILL REMAIN ON THE BREEZY SIDE...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE ROUNDS
THE RIDGE AND DEEPENS THE LEESIDE PRESSURE TROUGH. HOWEVER...WINDS
IN THE 800-700MB LAYER ARE PROGGED TO ONLY INCREASE TO 35 TO 45
KTS SO HIGH WINDS LOOK UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH 40S/50S EAST AND 30S/40S WEST.
THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE WEST COAST ON THURSDAY AND WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT
WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 503 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN TODAY WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS THE WIND PRONE
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING THIS MORNING...WITH STRONG WINDS
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS OF 35 TO 50 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. FLURRIES
REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THROUGH MID-MORNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
WYOMING AND INTO THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...BUT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. WINDS WILL
STEADILY EASE AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 153 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

MINIMAL CONCERNS DUE TO RELATIVELY HIGH HUMIDITIES
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND SNOW COVER.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MST THIS
     EVENING FOR NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN



000
FXUS65 KCYS 071203
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
503 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 153 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

TODAY...FORTUNATELY...WIND SPEEDS SLOWLY DECREASING ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AS GRADIENTS RELAX SOMEWHAT AND THUS WILL
LIKELY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE HIGH WIND WARNING THERE.

FLOW ALOFT VEERS TO NORTH NORTHWEST WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR EASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA...100
KNOTS AT 500 MB...AND 60 TO 70 KNOTS AT 700 MB. SOME DOWNWARD
VERTICAL MOTION NOTED AND HOPEFULLY THIS WILL BE ENOUGH...ALONG WITH
DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW...TO AID IN STRONGER WINDS MIXING DOWN TO
THE SURFACE...THUS THE INHERITED HIGH WIND WARNING FOR WESTERN
NEBRASKA LOOKS GOOD.

COMPROMISED FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS MOS
MAXIMUMS AS WE WILL SEE COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY...MAKING FOR TRICKY
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.

TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH FAST NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES...EXPECT SURFACE WINDS TO DECREASE AS THE LOW LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLE. DRY WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AND LACK OF LIFT.

MONDAY...WARMING TREND BEGINS AS HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES START TO
RISE...ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED BY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND AT LEAST SCATTERED MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATING AIRMASS CONTINUES...THUS NOT QUITE AS COLD
AS SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL DRY WITH LACK OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AND LIFT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL KEEP HOLD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
THROUGH TUESDAY...AND WILL FLATTEN A BIT ON WEDNESDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE FEATURE ROUNDS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. WINDS IN THIS
PATTERN WILL REMAIN ON THE BREEZY SIDE...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE ROUNDS
THE RIDGE AND DEEPENS THE LEESIDE PRESSURE TROUGH. HOWEVER...WINDS
IN THE 800-700MB LAYER ARE PROGGED TO ONLY INCREASE TO 35 TO 45
KTS SO HIGH WINDS LOOK UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH 40S/50S EAST AND 30S/40S WEST.
THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE WEST COAST ON THURSDAY AND WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT
WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 503 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN TODAY WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS THE WIND PRONE
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING THIS MORNING...WITH STRONG WINDS
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS OF 35 TO 50 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. FLURRIES
REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THROUGH MID-MORNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
WYOMING AND INTO THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...BUT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. WINDS WILL
STEADILY EASE AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 153 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

MINIMAL CONCERNS DUE TO RELATIVELY HIGH HUMIDITIES
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND SNOW COVER.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MST THIS
     EVENING FOR NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN




000
FXUS65 KRIW 070940
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
240 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

NOW THAT THE DRY PACIFIC COOL FRONT HAS SWEPT ACROSS THE AREA...THE
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN WIND CORRIDOR HAVE BEEN
REPLACED WITH STRONG WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS SWEETWATER
COUNTY AND THE WIND RIVER BASIN WHERE CROWHEART GUSTED TO 63 MPH
AND KRIW 42 MPH. THE BRUNT OF THE 700MB COLD FRONT TRACKED ACROSS
JOHNSON COUNTY WHERE NW WINDS HAVE ALSO INCREASED BUT NOT TO THE
SAME MAGNITUDE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY EASE OFF
THROUGH MONDAY AS A PROMINENT RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WNW
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BUT WILL INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WIND CORRIDOR BUT NOT AS
STRONG AS SATURDAY. SINCE THERE IS STILL QUITE A DEEP BLANKET OF
SNOW ACROSS THIS AREA...ESPECIALLY AROUND CPR...THERE WILL STILL
LIKELY BE SOME DRIFTING SNOW BUT THE VISIBILITY SHOULD NOT BE
AFFECTED AS MUCH BY ANY BLOWING SNOW. BYG/JOHNSON COUNTY SHOULD
SEE A RESURGENCE OF NW WIND LATER THIS MORNING BEHIND THE NEXT AND
LAST SHORTWAVE TO MAINLY AFFECT NORTHEAST WY THIS MORNING. BY
MONDAY...WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER. EXCEPT FOR A FEW ISOLATED
SNOW FLURRIES OR AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR WEST MTNS THIS
MORNING...THE SHORT TERM FCST WILL BE PRECIP FREE. BY TUESDAY
MORNING...ENOUGH WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL TAKE PLACE TO
STEEPEN THE POSITIVE LAPSE RATE FOR PATCHY FOG TO FORM IN THE SNOW
COVERED BASINS AND VALLEYS. TEMPS WILL BE WARMING UP THROUGH MID
WEEK WITH THE TRAPPED BASINS AND VALLEY FOLLOWING BEHIND.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY EXCEPT FOR SOME WESTERN
VALLEYS WHERE STEEP INVERSIONS SET UP.  NEXT WEEKEND...A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY THE WEST WITH
WINDY AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WYOMING.

DISCUSSION...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND DEAMPLIFY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE TEMPERATURES...WITH
JACKSON AND STAR VALLEYS THE MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN UNDER STEEP
INVERSIONS...WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND HIGHS REMAINING
MOSTLY BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THURSDAY. ON THE OTHER END...SNOW-
FREE AREAS IN THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS...BUFFALO AND CODY...WILL SEE
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S THROUGH SATURDAY. THE BIGGEST QUESTION
WILL BE THE SNOW COVERED AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTH INTO NATRONA AND
FREMONT COUNTIES. THESE AREAS WILL BE SLOWER TO WARM UP AS THE
SNOWPACK MELTS OFF. FORECAST CONTINUES TO KEEP THESE AREAS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE NUMBERS. ON THURSDAY...SOME STRENGTHENING
OF MID-LEVEL NW FLOW AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION ON THURSDAY MAY BE
ENOUGH MIX OUT THE LOWER BIGHORN AND WIND RIVER BASINS.

ECMWF AND GFS SHOW SOME SPREAD WITH THE DETAILS OF NEXT PACIFIC
TROUGH THAT WILL SPLIT THROUGH THE RIDGE NEXT WEEKEND...BUT TIMING
IS GOOD ENOUGH SHOW COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF SNOW IN THE WEST...WINDY AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL
WYOMING BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY TO FORECAST INCREASING CHANCES OF
SNOW INTO THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH FR CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY...WITH WINDY AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY MILD BEHIND
THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

ANY MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END BY AROUND 15Z...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS. KCPR COULD SEE SOME
CEILINGS BETWEEN 040-080 KFT AGL THIS MORNING...BUT THIS AREA OF
LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY MIDDAY...WITH ONLY
FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE...BREEZY TO
WINDY WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS NORTHERN
JOHNSON...UPPER WIND RIVER BASIN...AND SWEETWATER COUNTY...BUT NOT
AS WINDY AS WHAT OCCURRED SATURDAY OR SATURDAY EVENING.
TONIGHT...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WARM AIR ADVECTION LOW CLOUDS
DEVELOPING OVER FAR WESTERN WYOMING...WHICH COULD IMPACT KJAC
TERMINAL. THESE CLOUDS COULD BE MVFR...BUT WILL KEEP THEM IN LOW VFR
RANGE FOR NOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

PERIODS OF STRONG WIND WILL REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWEETWATER
COUNTY...THE WIND RIVER BASIN AND NORTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY THROUGH
THIS MORNING. LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL ALSO REMAIN PRESENT OVER AREAS
OF WESTERN WYOMING...WITH SNOWFALL GENERALLY TAPERING OFF THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GAIN DOMINANCE OVER
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH A RETURN OF GUSTY WIND IS
POSSIBLE. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES FURTHER DURING THE WORK
WEEK...WIND WILL RELAX ACROSS THE AREA. MIXING HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...KEEPING SMOKE
DISPERSAL CATEGORIES ON THE LOWER SIDE.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 070908
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
208 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 205 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

NORTHERN PLAINS REGION IS UNDER STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH
INITIAL UPPER WAVE NOW PUSHING INTO MN...AND NEXT WAVE OVER MT/ND.
SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN MN IS CREATING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE DAKOTAS AND SOME BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 20-30 KTS.
SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY...AND TEMPS ARE IN THE 30S.

NEXT UPPER WAVE WILL QUICKLY SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING THE
NEXT AND MORE WIDESPREAD ROUND OF VERY STRONG WINDS. COLD AIR WILL
CONTINUE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION...WITH BEST PRESSURE RISES AND
ISALLOBARIC WINDS AROUND MIDDAY...RESULTING IN WINDS OF 40-50 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 65-75 MPH. CONSIDERED THE POSSIBILITY OF EXPANDING
WARNINGS TO THE REST OF NORTHEASTERN WY...AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL OF 50KT+ WINDS MIXING DOWN. HOWEVER NAM/GFS/ECM IN
AGREEMENT THAT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT AS
IMPRESSIVE OVER NORTHEASTERN WY AS THEY ARE OVER THE DAKOTAS...AND
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW JUST 25-30KT WINDS FOR THAT AREA. WILL
LEAVE HEADLINES AS THEY ARE...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG
GUSTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS EVENING...STILL REMAINING
BREEZY OVERNIGHT. A FEW LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL SD THIS AFTERNOON AS WAVE CROSSES THE AREA. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MONDAY...WITH
CONTINUED FAST NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. SOMEWHAT TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS BREEZY ON MONDAY. UNDER PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 205 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN NW THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH
UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE WRN CONUS. BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL PUSH INTO
OUR ERN HALF OF ZONES TUESDAY AS UPPER WAVE DROPS SEWD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. COULD BE SOME -SN WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT SO HAVE ADDED SOME LOW POPS. WARMER AIR WILL
THEN PUSH BACK INTO THE ENTIRE CWFA ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE
EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW ANOTHER BACKDOOR CDFNT TO
SLIDE INTO OUR ERN ZONES LATE THURSDAY AND MAY PROVIDE ANOTHER SMALL
OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT PCPN. FOR NOW WILL KEEP WX TYPE SNOW BUT
THERMAL PROFILES DO SHOW SOME CHANCE FOR FREEZING PCPN SO WILL KEEP
AN EYE ON THIS. WARMER/DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY
AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE NRN PLAINS.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 205 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

AREAS OF MVFR CIGS PRIMARILY IN THE NRN BLKHLS WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE THIS MRNG. THE BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE THE STRONG NW
WINDS DEVELOPING TODAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH 50-60KT GUSTS
EXPECTED ESPECIALLY OVER NWRN SD. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     SDZ001-002-012>014-024>026-028>032-043-044-046-047-049-
     072>074.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ027-041-042.

WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR WYZ057-071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 070908
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
208 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 205 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

NORTHERN PLAINS REGION IS UNDER STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH
INITIAL UPPER WAVE NOW PUSHING INTO MN...AND NEXT WAVE OVER MT/ND.
SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN MN IS CREATING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE DAKOTAS AND SOME BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 20-30 KTS.
SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY...AND TEMPS ARE IN THE 30S.

NEXT UPPER WAVE WILL QUICKLY SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING THE
NEXT AND MORE WIDESPREAD ROUND OF VERY STRONG WINDS. COLD AIR WILL
CONTINUE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION...WITH BEST PRESSURE RISES AND
ISALLOBARIC WINDS AROUND MIDDAY...RESULTING IN WINDS OF 40-50 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 65-75 MPH. CONSIDERED THE POSSIBILITY OF EXPANDING
WARNINGS TO THE REST OF NORTHEASTERN WY...AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL OF 50KT+ WINDS MIXING DOWN. HOWEVER NAM/GFS/ECM IN
AGREEMENT THAT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT AS
IMPRESSIVE OVER NORTHEASTERN WY AS THEY ARE OVER THE DAKOTAS...AND
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW JUST 25-30KT WINDS FOR THAT AREA. WILL
LEAVE HEADLINES AS THEY ARE...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG
GUSTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS EVENING...STILL REMAINING
BREEZY OVERNIGHT. A FEW LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL SD THIS AFTERNOON AS WAVE CROSSES THE AREA. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MONDAY...WITH
CONTINUED FAST NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. SOMEWHAT TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS BREEZY ON MONDAY. UNDER PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 205 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN NW THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH
UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE WRN CONUS. BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL PUSH INTO
OUR ERN HALF OF ZONES TUESDAY AS UPPER WAVE DROPS SEWD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. COULD BE SOME -SN WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT SO HAVE ADDED SOME LOW POPS. WARMER AIR WILL
THEN PUSH BACK INTO THE ENTIRE CWFA ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE
EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW ANOTHER BACKDOOR CDFNT TO
SLIDE INTO OUR ERN ZONES LATE THURSDAY AND MAY PROVIDE ANOTHER SMALL
OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT PCPN. FOR NOW WILL KEEP WX TYPE SNOW BUT
THERMAL PROFILES DO SHOW SOME CHANCE FOR FREEZING PCPN SO WILL KEEP
AN EYE ON THIS. WARMER/DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY
AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE NRN PLAINS.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 205 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

AREAS OF MVFR CIGS PRIMARILY IN THE NRN BLKHLS WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE THIS MRNG. THE BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE THE STRONG NW
WINDS DEVELOPING TODAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH 50-60KT GUSTS
EXPECTED ESPECIALLY OVER NWRN SD. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     SDZ001-002-012>014-024>026-028>032-043-044-046-047-049-
     072>074.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ027-041-042.

WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR WYZ057-071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 070908
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
208 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 205 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

NORTHERN PLAINS REGION IS UNDER STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH
INITIAL UPPER WAVE NOW PUSHING INTO MN...AND NEXT WAVE OVER MT/ND.
SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN MN IS CREATING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE DAKOTAS AND SOME BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 20-30 KTS.
SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY...AND TEMPS ARE IN THE 30S.

NEXT UPPER WAVE WILL QUICKLY SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING THE
NEXT AND MORE WIDESPREAD ROUND OF VERY STRONG WINDS. COLD AIR WILL
CONTINUE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION...WITH BEST PRESSURE RISES AND
ISALLOBARIC WINDS AROUND MIDDAY...RESULTING IN WINDS OF 40-50 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 65-75 MPH. CONSIDERED THE POSSIBILITY OF EXPANDING
WARNINGS TO THE REST OF NORTHEASTERN WY...AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL OF 50KT+ WINDS MIXING DOWN. HOWEVER NAM/GFS/ECM IN
AGREEMENT THAT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT AS
IMPRESSIVE OVER NORTHEASTERN WY AS THEY ARE OVER THE DAKOTAS...AND
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW JUST 25-30KT WINDS FOR THAT AREA. WILL
LEAVE HEADLINES AS THEY ARE...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG
GUSTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS EVENING...STILL REMAINING
BREEZY OVERNIGHT. A FEW LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL SD THIS AFTERNOON AS WAVE CROSSES THE AREA. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MONDAY...WITH
CONTINUED FAST NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. SOMEWHAT TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS BREEZY ON MONDAY. UNDER PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 205 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN NW THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH
UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE WRN CONUS. BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL PUSH INTO
OUR ERN HALF OF ZONES TUESDAY AS UPPER WAVE DROPS SEWD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. COULD BE SOME -SN WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT SO HAVE ADDED SOME LOW POPS. WARMER AIR WILL
THEN PUSH BACK INTO THE ENTIRE CWFA ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE
EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW ANOTHER BACKDOOR CDFNT TO
SLIDE INTO OUR ERN ZONES LATE THURSDAY AND MAY PROVIDE ANOTHER SMALL
OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT PCPN. FOR NOW WILL KEEP WX TYPE SNOW BUT
THERMAL PROFILES DO SHOW SOME CHANCE FOR FREEZING PCPN SO WILL KEEP
AN EYE ON THIS. WARMER/DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY
AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE NRN PLAINS.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 205 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

AREAS OF MVFR CIGS PRIMARILY IN THE NRN BLKHLS WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE THIS MRNG. THE BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE THE STRONG NW
WINDS DEVELOPING TODAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH 50-60KT GUSTS
EXPECTED ESPECIALLY OVER NWRN SD. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     SDZ001-002-012>014-024>026-028>032-043-044-046-047-049-
     072>074.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ027-041-042.

WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR WYZ057-071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 070908
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
208 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 205 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

NORTHERN PLAINS REGION IS UNDER STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH
INITIAL UPPER WAVE NOW PUSHING INTO MN...AND NEXT WAVE OVER MT/ND.
SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN MN IS CREATING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE DAKOTAS AND SOME BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 20-30 KTS.
SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY...AND TEMPS ARE IN THE 30S.

NEXT UPPER WAVE WILL QUICKLY SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING THE
NEXT AND MORE WIDESPREAD ROUND OF VERY STRONG WINDS. COLD AIR WILL
CONTINUE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION...WITH BEST PRESSURE RISES AND
ISALLOBARIC WINDS AROUND MIDDAY...RESULTING IN WINDS OF 40-50 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 65-75 MPH. CONSIDERED THE POSSIBILITY OF EXPANDING
WARNINGS TO THE REST OF NORTHEASTERN WY...AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL OF 50KT+ WINDS MIXING DOWN. HOWEVER NAM/GFS/ECM IN
AGREEMENT THAT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT AS
IMPRESSIVE OVER NORTHEASTERN WY AS THEY ARE OVER THE DAKOTAS...AND
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW JUST 25-30KT WINDS FOR THAT AREA. WILL
LEAVE HEADLINES AS THEY ARE...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG
GUSTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS EVENING...STILL REMAINING
BREEZY OVERNIGHT. A FEW LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL SD THIS AFTERNOON AS WAVE CROSSES THE AREA. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MONDAY...WITH
CONTINUED FAST NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. SOMEWHAT TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS BREEZY ON MONDAY. UNDER PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 205 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN NW THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH
UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE WRN CONUS. BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL PUSH INTO
OUR ERN HALF OF ZONES TUESDAY AS UPPER WAVE DROPS SEWD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. COULD BE SOME -SN WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT SO HAVE ADDED SOME LOW POPS. WARMER AIR WILL
THEN PUSH BACK INTO THE ENTIRE CWFA ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE
EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW ANOTHER BACKDOOR CDFNT TO
SLIDE INTO OUR ERN ZONES LATE THURSDAY AND MAY PROVIDE ANOTHER SMALL
OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT PCPN. FOR NOW WILL KEEP WX TYPE SNOW BUT
THERMAL PROFILES DO SHOW SOME CHANCE FOR FREEZING PCPN SO WILL KEEP
AN EYE ON THIS. WARMER/DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY
AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE NRN PLAINS.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 205 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

AREAS OF MVFR CIGS PRIMARILY IN THE NRN BLKHLS WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE THIS MRNG. THE BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE THE STRONG NW
WINDS DEVELOPING TODAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH 50-60KT GUSTS
EXPECTED ESPECIALLY OVER NWRN SD. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     SDZ001-002-012>014-024>026-028>032-043-044-046-047-049-
     072>074.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ027-041-042.

WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR WYZ057-071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 070908
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
208 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 205 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

NORTHERN PLAINS REGION IS UNDER STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH
INITIAL UPPER WAVE NOW PUSHING INTO MN...AND NEXT WAVE OVER MT/ND.
SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN MN IS CREATING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE DAKOTAS AND SOME BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 20-30 KTS.
SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY...AND TEMPS ARE IN THE 30S.

NEXT UPPER WAVE WILL QUICKLY SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING THE
NEXT AND MORE WIDESPREAD ROUND OF VERY STRONG WINDS. COLD AIR WILL
CONTINUE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION...WITH BEST PRESSURE RISES AND
ISALLOBARIC WINDS AROUND MIDDAY...RESULTING IN WINDS OF 40-50 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 65-75 MPH. CONSIDERED THE POSSIBILITY OF EXPANDING
WARNINGS TO THE REST OF NORTHEASTERN WY...AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL OF 50KT+ WINDS MIXING DOWN. HOWEVER NAM/GFS/ECM IN
AGREEMENT THAT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT AS
IMPRESSIVE OVER NORTHEASTERN WY AS THEY ARE OVER THE DAKOTAS...AND
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW JUST 25-30KT WINDS FOR THAT AREA. WILL
LEAVE HEADLINES AS THEY ARE...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG
GUSTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS EVENING...STILL REMAINING
BREEZY OVERNIGHT. A FEW LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL SD THIS AFTERNOON AS WAVE CROSSES THE AREA. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MONDAY...WITH
CONTINUED FAST NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. SOMEWHAT TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS BREEZY ON MONDAY. UNDER PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 205 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN NW THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH
UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE WRN CONUS. BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL PUSH INTO
OUR ERN HALF OF ZONES TUESDAY AS UPPER WAVE DROPS SEWD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. COULD BE SOME -SN WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT SO HAVE ADDED SOME LOW POPS. WARMER AIR WILL
THEN PUSH BACK INTO THE ENTIRE CWFA ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE
EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW ANOTHER BACKDOOR CDFNT TO
SLIDE INTO OUR ERN ZONES LATE THURSDAY AND MAY PROVIDE ANOTHER SMALL
OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT PCPN. FOR NOW WILL KEEP WX TYPE SNOW BUT
THERMAL PROFILES DO SHOW SOME CHANCE FOR FREEZING PCPN SO WILL KEEP
AN EYE ON THIS. WARMER/DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY
AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE NRN PLAINS.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 205 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

AREAS OF MVFR CIGS PRIMARILY IN THE NRN BLKHLS WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE THIS MRNG. THE BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE THE STRONG NW
WINDS DEVELOPING TODAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH 50-60KT GUSTS
EXPECTED ESPECIALLY OVER NWRN SD. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     SDZ001-002-012>014-024>026-028>032-043-044-046-047-049-
     072>074.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ027-041-042.

WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR WYZ057-071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON




000
FXUS65 KCYS 070853
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
153 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 153 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

TODAY...FORTUNATELY...WIND SPEEDS SLOWLY DECREASING ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AS GRADIENTS RELAX SOMEWHAT AND THUS WILL
LIKELY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE HIGH WIND WARNING THERE.

FLOW ALOFT VEERS TO NORTH NORTHWEST WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR EASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA...100
KNOTS AT 500 MB...AND 60 TO 70 KNOTS AT 700 MB. SOME DOWNWARD
VERTICAL MOTION NOTED AND HOPEFULLY THIS WILL BE ENOUGH...ALONG WITH
DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW...TO AID IN STRONGER WINDS MIXING DOWN TO
THE SURFACE...THUS THE INHERITED HIGH WIND WARNING FOR WESTERN
NEBRASKA LOOKS GOOD.

COMPROMISED FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS MOS
MAXIMUMS AS WE WILL SEE COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY...MAKING FOR TRICKY
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.

TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH FAST NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES...EXPECT SURFACE WINDS TO DECREASE AS THE LOW LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLE. DRY WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AND LACK OF LIFT.

MONDAY...WARMING TREND BEGINS AS HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES START TO
RISE...ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED BY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND AT LEAST SCATTERED MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATING AIRMASS CONTINUES...THUS NOT QUITE AS COLD
AS SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL DRY WITH LACK OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AND LIFT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL KEEP HOLD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
THROUGH TUESDAY...AND WILL FLATTEN A BIT ON WEDNESDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE FEATURE ROUNDS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. WINDS IN THIS
PATTERN WILL REMAIN ON THE BREEZY SIDE...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE ROUNDS
THE RIDGE AND DEEPENS THE LEESIDE PRESSURE TROUGH. HOWEVER...WINDS
IN THE 800-700MB LAYER ARE PROGGED TO ONLY INCREASE TO 35 TO 45
KTS SO HIGH WINDS LOOK UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH 40S/50S EAST AND 30S/40S WEST.
THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE WEST COAST ON THURSDAY AND WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT
WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE THE STRONG
WINDS. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY ACROSS THE WIND PRONE
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE LATE TONIGHT BUT THE STRONG WINDS
WILL SHIFT INTO THE PLAINS. GUSTS OF 35 TO 50 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS THE PLAINS BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
WYOMING AND INTO THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...BUT GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 153 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

MINIMAL CONCERNS DUE TO RELATIVELY HIGH HUMIDITIES
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND SNOW COVER.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MST THIS
     EVENING FOR NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN




000
FXUS65 KCYS 070853
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
153 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 153 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

TODAY...FORTUNATELY...WIND SPEEDS SLOWLY DECREASING ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AS GRADIENTS RELAX SOMEWHAT AND THUS WILL
LIKELY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE HIGH WIND WARNING THERE.

FLOW ALOFT VEERS TO NORTH NORTHWEST WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR EASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA...100
KNOTS AT 500 MB...AND 60 TO 70 KNOTS AT 700 MB. SOME DOWNWARD
VERTICAL MOTION NOTED AND HOPEFULLY THIS WILL BE ENOUGH...ALONG WITH
DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW...TO AID IN STRONGER WINDS MIXING DOWN TO
THE SURFACE...THUS THE INHERITED HIGH WIND WARNING FOR WESTERN
NEBRASKA LOOKS GOOD.

COMPROMISED FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS MOS
MAXIMUMS AS WE WILL SEE COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY...MAKING FOR TRICKY
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.

TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH FAST NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES...EXPECT SURFACE WINDS TO DECREASE AS THE LOW LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLE. DRY WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AND LACK OF LIFT.

MONDAY...WARMING TREND BEGINS AS HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES START TO
RISE...ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED BY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND AT LEAST SCATTERED MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATING AIRMASS CONTINUES...THUS NOT QUITE AS COLD
AS SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL DRY WITH LACK OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AND LIFT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL KEEP HOLD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
THROUGH TUESDAY...AND WILL FLATTEN A BIT ON WEDNESDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE FEATURE ROUNDS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. WINDS IN THIS
PATTERN WILL REMAIN ON THE BREEZY SIDE...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE ROUNDS
THE RIDGE AND DEEPENS THE LEESIDE PRESSURE TROUGH. HOWEVER...WINDS
IN THE 800-700MB LAYER ARE PROGGED TO ONLY INCREASE TO 35 TO 45
KTS SO HIGH WINDS LOOK UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH 40S/50S EAST AND 30S/40S WEST.
THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE WEST COAST ON THURSDAY AND WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT
WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE THE STRONG
WINDS. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY ACROSS THE WIND PRONE
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE LATE TONIGHT BUT THE STRONG WINDS
WILL SHIFT INTO THE PLAINS. GUSTS OF 35 TO 50 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS THE PLAINS BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
WYOMING AND INTO THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...BUT GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 153 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

MINIMAL CONCERNS DUE TO RELATIVELY HIGH HUMIDITIES
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND SNOW COVER.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MST THIS
     EVENING FOR NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN



000
FXUS65 KCYS 070853
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
153 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 153 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

TODAY...FORTUNATELY...WIND SPEEDS SLOWLY DECREASING ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AS GRADIENTS RELAX SOMEWHAT AND THUS WILL
LIKELY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE HIGH WIND WARNING THERE.

FLOW ALOFT VEERS TO NORTH NORTHWEST WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR EASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA...100
KNOTS AT 500 MB...AND 60 TO 70 KNOTS AT 700 MB. SOME DOWNWARD
VERTICAL MOTION NOTED AND HOPEFULLY THIS WILL BE ENOUGH...ALONG WITH
DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW...TO AID IN STRONGER WINDS MIXING DOWN TO
THE SURFACE...THUS THE INHERITED HIGH WIND WARNING FOR WESTERN
NEBRASKA LOOKS GOOD.

COMPROMISED FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS MOS
MAXIMUMS AS WE WILL SEE COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY...MAKING FOR TRICKY
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.

TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH FAST NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES...EXPECT SURFACE WINDS TO DECREASE AS THE LOW LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLE. DRY WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AND LACK OF LIFT.

MONDAY...WARMING TREND BEGINS AS HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES START TO
RISE...ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED BY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND AT LEAST SCATTERED MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATING AIRMASS CONTINUES...THUS NOT QUITE AS COLD
AS SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL DRY WITH LACK OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AND LIFT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL KEEP HOLD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
THROUGH TUESDAY...AND WILL FLATTEN A BIT ON WEDNESDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE FEATURE ROUNDS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. WINDS IN THIS
PATTERN WILL REMAIN ON THE BREEZY SIDE...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE ROUNDS
THE RIDGE AND DEEPENS THE LEESIDE PRESSURE TROUGH. HOWEVER...WINDS
IN THE 800-700MB LAYER ARE PROGGED TO ONLY INCREASE TO 35 TO 45
KTS SO HIGH WINDS LOOK UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH 40S/50S EAST AND 30S/40S WEST.
THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE WEST COAST ON THURSDAY AND WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT
WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE THE STRONG
WINDS. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY ACROSS THE WIND PRONE
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE LATE TONIGHT BUT THE STRONG WINDS
WILL SHIFT INTO THE PLAINS. GUSTS OF 35 TO 50 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS THE PLAINS BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
WYOMING AND INTO THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...BUT GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 153 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

MINIMAL CONCERNS DUE TO RELATIVELY HIGH HUMIDITIES
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND SNOW COVER.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MST THIS
     EVENING FOR NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN




000
FXUS65 KCYS 070616
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1116 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 824 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

ONLY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT WAS TO EXTEND THE
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT...AND TO EXPAND THE HIGH WIND WARNING INTO THE SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE SUNDAY. WHILE WINDS MAY BE MARGINAL FOR HIGH
WIND WARNING AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE...THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING WINDS HOLDING UP A BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS. CURRENTLY SEVERAL WYDOT SITES AREA SUSTAINED IN THE 40 TO 50
MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS 55 TO 70 MPH. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BUT THE MAIN DECREASES WILL NOT
OCCUR UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THIS WEEKEND WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE BELOW 15 PERCENT.
FOR TODAY...HIGH WIND WARNINGS ACROSS OUR PRIMARY WIND PRONE
CORRIDORS LOOK ON TRACK WITH OBSERVED GUSTS OVER 70 MPH. THIS WIND
HAS PRODUCED DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ALL DAY ALONG INTERSTATE
25 BETWEEN CHEYENNE AND WHEATLAND DUE TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
ON THE ROADS. BLOWING SNOW IS ALSO BEING REPORTED WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE...BUT THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MORE PATCHY DUE TO A
DIMINISHING SNOW PACK IN THOSE AREAS.

WINDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING
THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT IT WILL STILL REMAIN RATHER WINDY WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 40 TO 50 MPH EVEN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
WHICH IS CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS
FRONT WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...BUT WILL
HELP WITH SLIGHTLY LOWERING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WIND
PRONE LOCATIONS. THIS WILL NOT BE THE CASE FOR WESTERN
NEBRASKA...WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE WITH STRONG WINDS GUSTING OVER 55 MPH AT TIMES.
AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...DECIDED TO UPGRADE
THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING ACROSS DAWES...BOX BUTTE...AND
NRN SIOUX COUNTY BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE WATCH GOING FOR THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...BUT EXPECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TO BE
UPGRADED AS WELL DUE TO LOW TO MIDLEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND 850MB WINDS
BETWEEN 45 TO 55 KNOTS AND GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. TIMING OF
THE STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE SLIGHTLY LATER COMPARED TO THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE. IT WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN A GOOD AGREEMENT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT
BASIN REGION. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA DUE TO NORTHERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
MODIFY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 IN THE
AFTERNOON. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIND CONCERNS ON MONDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL BE WEAKER COMPARED TO
THIS WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH BREEZY OR WINDY CONDITIONS ARE STILL
EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

MILD TEMPS AND BREEZY-TO-WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE GREAT BASIN FROM TUES THROUGH FRI WITH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS THE CWA.  THE LLVL GRADIENT WILL BE
HIGH ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN A CONSTANT BREEZINESS ACROSS THE AREA AND
ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST WYOMING.  HOWEVER...WITH THE 850 MB CAG-CPR
GRADIENT OF 35-50 METERS...DO NOT ENVISION ANY WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND
HIGHLIGHTS ACROSS THE WIND PRONE AREAS.  UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND 700 MB TEMPS OF 0-3C...HIGHS TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S EACH DAY.  THIS WILL BE A NICE
BREAK FROM THE COLD START TO THE MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE THE STRONG
WINDS. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY ACROSS THE WIND PRONE
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE LATE TONIGHT BUT THE STRONG WINDS
WILL SHIFT INTO THE PLAINS. GUSTS OF 35 TO 50 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS THE PLAINS BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
WYOMING AND INTO THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...BUT GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1246 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT WEEK DUE TO A WIDESPREAD
SNOWPACK ACROSS THE AREA AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. A WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT NO CONCERNS
ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ABOVE 30
PERCENT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR WYZ116-117.

NE...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM MST SUNDAY FOR NEZ002-003-
     019>021-054-055-095-096.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...TJT




000
FXUS65 KCYS 070616
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1116 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 824 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

ONLY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT WAS TO EXTEND THE
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT...AND TO EXPAND THE HIGH WIND WARNING INTO THE SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE SUNDAY. WHILE WINDS MAY BE MARGINAL FOR HIGH
WIND WARNING AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE...THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING WINDS HOLDING UP A BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS. CURRENTLY SEVERAL WYDOT SITES AREA SUSTAINED IN THE 40 TO 50
MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS 55 TO 70 MPH. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BUT THE MAIN DECREASES WILL NOT
OCCUR UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THIS WEEKEND WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE BELOW 15 PERCENT.
FOR TODAY...HIGH WIND WARNINGS ACROSS OUR PRIMARY WIND PRONE
CORRIDORS LOOK ON TRACK WITH OBSERVED GUSTS OVER 70 MPH. THIS WIND
HAS PRODUCED DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ALL DAY ALONG INTERSTATE
25 BETWEEN CHEYENNE AND WHEATLAND DUE TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
ON THE ROADS. BLOWING SNOW IS ALSO BEING REPORTED WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE...BUT THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MORE PATCHY DUE TO A
DIMINISHING SNOW PACK IN THOSE AREAS.

WINDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING
THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT IT WILL STILL REMAIN RATHER WINDY WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 40 TO 50 MPH EVEN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
WHICH IS CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS
FRONT WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...BUT WILL
HELP WITH SLIGHTLY LOWERING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WIND
PRONE LOCATIONS. THIS WILL NOT BE THE CASE FOR WESTERN
NEBRASKA...WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE WITH STRONG WINDS GUSTING OVER 55 MPH AT TIMES.
AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...DECIDED TO UPGRADE
THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING ACROSS DAWES...BOX BUTTE...AND
NRN SIOUX COUNTY BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE WATCH GOING FOR THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...BUT EXPECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TO BE
UPGRADED AS WELL DUE TO LOW TO MIDLEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND 850MB WINDS
BETWEEN 45 TO 55 KNOTS AND GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. TIMING OF
THE STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE SLIGHTLY LATER COMPARED TO THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE. IT WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN A GOOD AGREEMENT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT
BASIN REGION. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA DUE TO NORTHERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
MODIFY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 IN THE
AFTERNOON. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIND CONCERNS ON MONDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL BE WEAKER COMPARED TO
THIS WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH BREEZY OR WINDY CONDITIONS ARE STILL
EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

MILD TEMPS AND BREEZY-TO-WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE GREAT BASIN FROM TUES THROUGH FRI WITH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS THE CWA.  THE LLVL GRADIENT WILL BE
HIGH ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN A CONSTANT BREEZINESS ACROSS THE AREA AND
ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST WYOMING.  HOWEVER...WITH THE 850 MB CAG-CPR
GRADIENT OF 35-50 METERS...DO NOT ENVISION ANY WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND
HIGHLIGHTS ACROSS THE WIND PRONE AREAS.  UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND 700 MB TEMPS OF 0-3C...HIGHS TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S EACH DAY.  THIS WILL BE A NICE
BREAK FROM THE COLD START TO THE MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE THE STRONG
WINDS. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY ACROSS THE WIND PRONE
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE LATE TONIGHT BUT THE STRONG WINDS
WILL SHIFT INTO THE PLAINS. GUSTS OF 35 TO 50 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS THE PLAINS BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
WYOMING AND INTO THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...BUT GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1246 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT WEEK DUE TO A WIDESPREAD
SNOWPACK ACROSS THE AREA AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. A WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT NO CONCERNS
ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ABOVE 30
PERCENT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR WYZ116-117.

NE...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM MST SUNDAY FOR NEZ002-003-
     019>021-054-055-095-096.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...TJT




000
FXUS65 KCYS 070616
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1116 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 824 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

ONLY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT WAS TO EXTEND THE
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT...AND TO EXPAND THE HIGH WIND WARNING INTO THE SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE SUNDAY. WHILE WINDS MAY BE MARGINAL FOR HIGH
WIND WARNING AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE...THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING WINDS HOLDING UP A BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS. CURRENTLY SEVERAL WYDOT SITES AREA SUSTAINED IN THE 40 TO 50
MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS 55 TO 70 MPH. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BUT THE MAIN DECREASES WILL NOT
OCCUR UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THIS WEEKEND WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE BELOW 15 PERCENT.
FOR TODAY...HIGH WIND WARNINGS ACROSS OUR PRIMARY WIND PRONE
CORRIDORS LOOK ON TRACK WITH OBSERVED GUSTS OVER 70 MPH. THIS WIND
HAS PRODUCED DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ALL DAY ALONG INTERSTATE
25 BETWEEN CHEYENNE AND WHEATLAND DUE TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
ON THE ROADS. BLOWING SNOW IS ALSO BEING REPORTED WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE...BUT THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MORE PATCHY DUE TO A
DIMINISHING SNOW PACK IN THOSE AREAS.

WINDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING
THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT IT WILL STILL REMAIN RATHER WINDY WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 40 TO 50 MPH EVEN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
WHICH IS CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS
FRONT WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...BUT WILL
HELP WITH SLIGHTLY LOWERING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WIND
PRONE LOCATIONS. THIS WILL NOT BE THE CASE FOR WESTERN
NEBRASKA...WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE WITH STRONG WINDS GUSTING OVER 55 MPH AT TIMES.
AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...DECIDED TO UPGRADE
THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING ACROSS DAWES...BOX BUTTE...AND
NRN SIOUX COUNTY BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE WATCH GOING FOR THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...BUT EXPECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TO BE
UPGRADED AS WELL DUE TO LOW TO MIDLEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND 850MB WINDS
BETWEEN 45 TO 55 KNOTS AND GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. TIMING OF
THE STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE SLIGHTLY LATER COMPARED TO THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE. IT WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN A GOOD AGREEMENT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT
BASIN REGION. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA DUE TO NORTHERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
MODIFY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 IN THE
AFTERNOON. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIND CONCERNS ON MONDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL BE WEAKER COMPARED TO
THIS WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH BREEZY OR WINDY CONDITIONS ARE STILL
EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

MILD TEMPS AND BREEZY-TO-WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE GREAT BASIN FROM TUES THROUGH FRI WITH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS THE CWA.  THE LLVL GRADIENT WILL BE
HIGH ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN A CONSTANT BREEZINESS ACROSS THE AREA AND
ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST WYOMING.  HOWEVER...WITH THE 850 MB CAG-CPR
GRADIENT OF 35-50 METERS...DO NOT ENVISION ANY WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND
HIGHLIGHTS ACROSS THE WIND PRONE AREAS.  UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND 700 MB TEMPS OF 0-3C...HIGHS TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S EACH DAY.  THIS WILL BE A NICE
BREAK FROM THE COLD START TO THE MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE THE STRONG
WINDS. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY ACROSS THE WIND PRONE
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE LATE TONIGHT BUT THE STRONG WINDS
WILL SHIFT INTO THE PLAINS. GUSTS OF 35 TO 50 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS THE PLAINS BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
WYOMING AND INTO THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...BUT GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1246 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT WEEK DUE TO A WIDESPREAD
SNOWPACK ACROSS THE AREA AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. A WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT NO CONCERNS
ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ABOVE 30
PERCENT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR WYZ116-117.

NE...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM MST SUNDAY FOR NEZ002-003-
     019>021-054-055-095-096.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...TJT



000
FXUS65 KRIW 070531
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1031 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN WYOMING WITH
INSIGNIFICANT ANTICIPATED NEW ACCUMULATIONS. SNOWFALL WILL WORK TO
TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE GAINS STRENGTH OVER THE AREA.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BIGGER STORY FOR TODAY REMAINS WIND ACROSS THE AREA. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER NATRONA AND SOUTHEASTERN
FREMONT COUNTIES. A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AREA...WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. WIND SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

PERIODS OF GUSTY WIND WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH
WIND IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE SAME MAGNITUDE AS THIS
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

A LONG WAVE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WEST OF
WYOMING WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING
THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  SOME CLOUDS MAY
SPILLOVER THE RIDGE AND SOME LEE ENHANCED CLOUDS MAY ALSO FORM BUT
OVERALL THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRY WITH FEW CLOUDS OVERALL.  WINDS
SHOULD PICK UP SOME WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  TEMPERATURES WILL WARM IN THE WINDY
AREAS AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST. A PACIFIC TROUGH MAY WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE
RIDGE LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH BROKEN CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS.  ACROSS THE SOUTH
AND ALONG AND NEAR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS INCREASED
DOWNSLOPE WINDS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ARE EXPECTED WITH
INCREASED WARMING.  THE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY REBUILD FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH WORKS ITS WAY EAST INTO
WESTERN WYOMING SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH MORE ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH ABOUT
14Z...MAINLY OUT WEST AS A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...BREEZY TO WINDY WESTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR IN MANY
LOCATIONS...BUT WINDS WILL BE WEAKER AND NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS WHAT
OCCURRED SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

PERIODS OF STRONG WIND WILL REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN WYOMING THROUGH THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL WILL ALSO REMAIN
PRESENT OVER AREAS OF WESTERN WYOMING...WITH SNOWFALL GENERALLY
TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GAIN
DOMINANCE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH A RETURN OF
GUSTY WIND IS POSSIBLE. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES FURTHER DURING
THE WORK WEEK...WIND WILL RELAX ACROSS THE AREA. MIXING HEIGHTS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...KEEPING
SMOKE DISPERSAL CATEGORIES ON THE LOWER SIDE.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRANHAM
LONG TERM...C.BAKER
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...BRANHAM




000
FXUS65 KRIW 070531
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1031 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN WYOMING WITH
INSIGNIFICANT ANTICIPATED NEW ACCUMULATIONS. SNOWFALL WILL WORK TO
TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE GAINS STRENGTH OVER THE AREA.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BIGGER STORY FOR TODAY REMAINS WIND ACROSS THE AREA. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER NATRONA AND SOUTHEASTERN
FREMONT COUNTIES. A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AREA...WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. WIND SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

PERIODS OF GUSTY WIND WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH
WIND IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE SAME MAGNITUDE AS THIS
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

A LONG WAVE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WEST OF
WYOMING WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING
THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  SOME CLOUDS MAY
SPILLOVER THE RIDGE AND SOME LEE ENHANCED CLOUDS MAY ALSO FORM BUT
OVERALL THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRY WITH FEW CLOUDS OVERALL.  WINDS
SHOULD PICK UP SOME WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  TEMPERATURES WILL WARM IN THE WINDY
AREAS AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST. A PACIFIC TROUGH MAY WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE
RIDGE LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH BROKEN CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS.  ACROSS THE SOUTH
AND ALONG AND NEAR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS INCREASED
DOWNSLOPE WINDS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ARE EXPECTED WITH
INCREASED WARMING.  THE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY REBUILD FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH WORKS ITS WAY EAST INTO
WESTERN WYOMING SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH MORE ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH ABOUT
14Z...MAINLY OUT WEST AS A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...BREEZY TO WINDY WESTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR IN MANY
LOCATIONS...BUT WINDS WILL BE WEAKER AND NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS WHAT
OCCURRED SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

PERIODS OF STRONG WIND WILL REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN WYOMING THROUGH THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL WILL ALSO REMAIN
PRESENT OVER AREAS OF WESTERN WYOMING...WITH SNOWFALL GENERALLY
TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GAIN
DOMINANCE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH A RETURN OF
GUSTY WIND IS POSSIBLE. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES FURTHER DURING
THE WORK WEEK...WIND WILL RELAX ACROSS THE AREA. MIXING HEIGHTS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...KEEPING
SMOKE DISPERSAL CATEGORIES ON THE LOWER SIDE.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRANHAM
LONG TERM...C.BAKER
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...BRANHAM



000
FXUS65 KRIW 070531
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1031 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN WYOMING WITH
INSIGNIFICANT ANTICIPATED NEW ACCUMULATIONS. SNOWFALL WILL WORK TO
TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE GAINS STRENGTH OVER THE AREA.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BIGGER STORY FOR TODAY REMAINS WIND ACROSS THE AREA. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER NATRONA AND SOUTHEASTERN
FREMONT COUNTIES. A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AREA...WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. WIND SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

PERIODS OF GUSTY WIND WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH
WIND IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE SAME MAGNITUDE AS THIS
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

A LONG WAVE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WEST OF
WYOMING WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING
THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  SOME CLOUDS MAY
SPILLOVER THE RIDGE AND SOME LEE ENHANCED CLOUDS MAY ALSO FORM BUT
OVERALL THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRY WITH FEW CLOUDS OVERALL.  WINDS
SHOULD PICK UP SOME WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  TEMPERATURES WILL WARM IN THE WINDY
AREAS AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST. A PACIFIC TROUGH MAY WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE
RIDGE LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH BROKEN CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS.  ACROSS THE SOUTH
AND ALONG AND NEAR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS INCREASED
DOWNSLOPE WINDS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ARE EXPECTED WITH
INCREASED WARMING.  THE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY REBUILD FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH WORKS ITS WAY EAST INTO
WESTERN WYOMING SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH MORE ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH ABOUT
14Z...MAINLY OUT WEST AS A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...BREEZY TO WINDY WESTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR IN MANY
LOCATIONS...BUT WINDS WILL BE WEAKER AND NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS WHAT
OCCURRED SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

PERIODS OF STRONG WIND WILL REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN WYOMING THROUGH THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL WILL ALSO REMAIN
PRESENT OVER AREAS OF WESTERN WYOMING...WITH SNOWFALL GENERALLY
TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GAIN
DOMINANCE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH A RETURN OF
GUSTY WIND IS POSSIBLE. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES FURTHER DURING
THE WORK WEEK...WIND WILL RELAX ACROSS THE AREA. MIXING HEIGHTS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...KEEPING
SMOKE DISPERSAL CATEGORIES ON THE LOWER SIDE.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRANHAM
LONG TERM...C.BAKER
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...BRANHAM




000
FXUS63 KUNR 070510
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1010 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 722 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

00Z KUNR SOUNDING MIXED TO ABOUT 500MB SAVE FOR A MODEST FRONTAL
INVERSION AROUND 750MB. INITIAL ISALLOBARIC FORCING BEHIND COLD
FRONT QUITE VIGOROUS WITH MANY REPORTS OF HIGH WINDS. WATER VAPOUR
LOOP SHOWED WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE ZIPPING ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS WITH EXCELLENT SUBSIDENCE/DRYING BEHIND IT. SURFACE LOW
WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN MB AT 02Z...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN TIGHT
GRADIENT OVER THE CWA THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT PARTIAL DECOUPLING WILL
OCCUR REST OF THE NIGHT UNTIL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN
AB/SK STIRS THINGS UP AGAIN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGH WINDS LIKELY OVER
MOST OF WESTERN SD.

CURRENT HEADLINES IN GOOD SHAPE...BUT WILL TWEAK FORECAST FOR
LATEST WIND/CLOUD COVER TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 132 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

VERY POTENT BUT COMPACT SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A SFC COLD FRONT QUICKLY ADVECTING SE TOWARD
THE FA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING VERY STRONG WINDS TO THE REGION FOR
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME /TONIGHT INTO SUN EVENING/. INITIAL
ROUND OF PRESSURE RISES AND CAA WILL ENSUE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS. DIURNAL
BL COOLING WILL SUBDUE WINDS MOST PLACES OUTSIDE OF TERRAIN
ENHANCED AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT. A SECONDARY BACKSIDE IMPULSE WILL
DIRECT RE-NEWED PRESSURE RISES ACROSS THE REGION SUN
MORNING,...WITH DIURNAL HEATING ALLOWING MIXING OF STRONGER
MOMENTUM TO THE SFC. BUFR PROFILES SUGGEST VERY STRONG WINDS WITH
MIXING POTENTIALS SUPPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH
GUSTS IN THE 70S/S MPH. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE WINDS GUSTS
OVER 80 MPH IN FAR NW SD AND IN THE LEE OF THE BH GIVEN FLOW
ENHANCEMENT AROUND THE HILLS. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
LATE SUNDAY MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON PERIOD. LEFT ALL HEADLINES AS
IS.

AS FOR PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM...VERY DRY PROFILES PER RAOB
ANALYSIS CONFIRMS DISMAL QPF OUTPUT FROM MODELS. RETAIN A LOW
CHANCE MENTION IN THE HILLS WHERE UPSLOPE FORCING MAY SQUEEZE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...A FEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS IN THE
SYSTEM COLD POOL MAY CLIP FAR EASTERN SCENTRAL SD SUN AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 132 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE STRONG WINDS FROM SUNDAY WILL BEGIN TO DIE DOWN DURING THE
DAY MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
DRY AS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND RIDGE SET UP IN THE EAST AND
WEST CONUS...RESPECTIVELY. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE FOR THE CENTRAL CONUS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM UP CONSIDERABLY BY MID WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS NWP GUIDANCE FORECASTS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO CLIP NORTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AROUND THIS SAME TIME...AN ARCTIC FRONT
WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN AS THE LOWEST SEVERAL
THOUSAND FEET REMAIN SATURATED AND BELOW FREEZING...BUT THE
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE IS DRY. ECMWF SOUNDINGS ARE A BIT MORE
SATURATED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND WOULD SUGGEST SNOW AS THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST MAINLY DRY FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD...BUT WILL MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW/ICE IN THE COMING
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1008 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS FROM
20-35KTS. STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS FROM
40-65KTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR LOCAL MVFR CIGS FROM K2WX TO KICR SUNDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ SUNDAY FOR SDZ024-
     028-029-043-044-046-047-049.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR SDZ027-041-042.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012>014-
     025-026-030>032-072>074.

WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR WYZ057.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR WYZ071.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MCKEMY
AVIATION...HELGESON




000
FXUS65 KCYS 070334
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
834 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 824 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

ONLY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT WAS TO EXTEND THE
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT...AND TO EXPAND THE HIGH WIND WARNING INTO THE SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE SUNDAY. WHILE WINDS MAY BE MARGINAL FOR HIGH
WIND WARNING AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE...THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING WINDS HOLDING UP A BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS. CURRENTLY SEVERAL WYDOT SITES AREA SUSTAINED IN THE 40 TO 50
MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS 55 TO 70 MPH. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BUT THE MAIN DECREASES WILL NOT
OCCUR UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THIS WEEKEND WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE BELOW 15 PERCENT.
FOR TODAY...HIGH WIND WARNINGS ACROSS OUR PRIMARY WIND PRONE
CORRIDORS LOOK ON TRACK WITH OBSERVED GUSTS OVER 70 MPH. THIS WIND
HAS PRODUCED DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ALL DAY ALONG INTERSTATE
25 BETWEEN CHEYENNE AND WHEATLAND DUE TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
ON THE ROADS. BLOWING SNOW IS ALSO BEING REPORTED WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE...BUT THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MORE PATCHY DUE TO A
DIMINISHING SNOW PACK IN THOSE AREAS.

WINDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING
THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT IT WILL STILL REMAIN RATHER WINDY WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 40 TO 50 MPH EVEN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
WHICH IS CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS
FRONT WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...BUT WILL
HELP WITH SLIGHTLY LOWERING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WIND
PRONE LOCATIONS. THIS WILL NOT BE THE CASE FOR WESTERN
NEBRASKA...WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE WITH STRONG WINDS GUSTING OVER 55 MPH AT TIMES.
AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...DECIDED TO UPGRADE
THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING ACROSS DAWES...BOX BUTTE...AND
NRN SIOUX COUNTY BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE WATCH GOING FOR THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...BUT EXPECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TO BE
UPGRADED AS WELL DUE TO LOW TO MIDLEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND 850MB WINDS
BETWEEN 45 TO 55 KNOTS AND GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. TIMING OF
THE STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE SLIGHTLY LATER COMPARED TO THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE. IT WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN A GOOD AGREEMENT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT
BASIN REGION. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA DUE TO NORTHERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
MODIFY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 IN THE
AFTERNOON. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIND CONCERNS ON MONDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL BE WEAKER COMPARED TO
THIS WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH BREEZY OR WINDY CONDITIONS ARE STILL
EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

MILD TEMPS AND BREEZY-TO-WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE GREAT BASIN FROM TUES THROUGH FRI WITH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS THE CWA.  THE LLVL GRADIENT WILL BE
HIGH ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN A CONSTANT BREEZINESS ACROSS THE AREA AND
ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST WYOMING.  HOWEVER...WITH THE 850 MB CAG-CPR
GRADIENT OF 35-50 METERS...DO NOT ENVISION ANY WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND
HIGHLIGHTS ACROSS THE WIND PRONE AREAS.  UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND 700 MB TEMPS OF 0-3C...HIGHS TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S EACH DAY.  THIS WILL BE A NICE
BREAK FROM THE COLD START TO THE MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 427 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN ELEVATED OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
GUSTS TO 30-35 KTS. THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL SEE WINDS DROP OFF
AFTER AROUND 02Z. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE AREA BY LATE
TONIGHT WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO NORTHWEST. IT WILL BECOME QUITE
WINDY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 35-40
KTS. CLOUD COVER WILL MAINLY BE LIMITED TO MID TO HIGH LEVEL.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1246 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT WEEK DUE TO A WIDESPREAD
SNOWPACK ACROSS THE AREA AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. A WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT NO CONCERNS
ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ABOVE 30
PERCENT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR WYZ116-117.

NE...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM MST SUNDAY FOR NEZ002-003-
     019>021-054-055-095-096.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...TJT



000
FXUS65 KCYS 070334
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
834 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 824 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

ONLY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT WAS TO EXTEND THE
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT...AND TO EXPAND THE HIGH WIND WARNING INTO THE SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE SUNDAY. WHILE WINDS MAY BE MARGINAL FOR HIGH
WIND WARNING AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE...THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING WINDS HOLDING UP A BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS. CURRENTLY SEVERAL WYDOT SITES AREA SUSTAINED IN THE 40 TO 50
MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS 55 TO 70 MPH. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BUT THE MAIN DECREASES WILL NOT
OCCUR UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THIS WEEKEND WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE BELOW 15 PERCENT.
FOR TODAY...HIGH WIND WARNINGS ACROSS OUR PRIMARY WIND PRONE
CORRIDORS LOOK ON TRACK WITH OBSERVED GUSTS OVER 70 MPH. THIS WIND
HAS PRODUCED DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ALL DAY ALONG INTERSTATE
25 BETWEEN CHEYENNE AND WHEATLAND DUE TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
ON THE ROADS. BLOWING SNOW IS ALSO BEING REPORTED WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE...BUT THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MORE PATCHY DUE TO A
DIMINISHING SNOW PACK IN THOSE AREAS.

WINDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING
THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT IT WILL STILL REMAIN RATHER WINDY WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 40 TO 50 MPH EVEN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
WHICH IS CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS
FRONT WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...BUT WILL
HELP WITH SLIGHTLY LOWERING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WIND
PRONE LOCATIONS. THIS WILL NOT BE THE CASE FOR WESTERN
NEBRASKA...WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE WITH STRONG WINDS GUSTING OVER 55 MPH AT TIMES.
AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...DECIDED TO UPGRADE
THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING ACROSS DAWES...BOX BUTTE...AND
NRN SIOUX COUNTY BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE WATCH GOING FOR THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...BUT EXPECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TO BE
UPGRADED AS WELL DUE TO LOW TO MIDLEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND 850MB WINDS
BETWEEN 45 TO 55 KNOTS AND GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. TIMING OF
THE STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE SLIGHTLY LATER COMPARED TO THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE. IT WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN A GOOD AGREEMENT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT
BASIN REGION. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA DUE TO NORTHERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
MODIFY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 IN THE
AFTERNOON. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIND CONCERNS ON MONDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL BE WEAKER COMPARED TO
THIS WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH BREEZY OR WINDY CONDITIONS ARE STILL
EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

MILD TEMPS AND BREEZY-TO-WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE GREAT BASIN FROM TUES THROUGH FRI WITH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS THE CWA.  THE LLVL GRADIENT WILL BE
HIGH ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN A CONSTANT BREEZINESS ACROSS THE AREA AND
ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST WYOMING.  HOWEVER...WITH THE 850 MB CAG-CPR
GRADIENT OF 35-50 METERS...DO NOT ENVISION ANY WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND
HIGHLIGHTS ACROSS THE WIND PRONE AREAS.  UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND 700 MB TEMPS OF 0-3C...HIGHS TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S EACH DAY.  THIS WILL BE A NICE
BREAK FROM THE COLD START TO THE MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 427 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN ELEVATED OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
GUSTS TO 30-35 KTS. THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL SEE WINDS DROP OFF
AFTER AROUND 02Z. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE AREA BY LATE
TONIGHT WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO NORTHWEST. IT WILL BECOME QUITE
WINDY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 35-40
KTS. CLOUD COVER WILL MAINLY BE LIMITED TO MID TO HIGH LEVEL.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1246 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT WEEK DUE TO A WIDESPREAD
SNOWPACK ACROSS THE AREA AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. A WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT NO CONCERNS
ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ABOVE 30
PERCENT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR WYZ116-117.

NE...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM MST SUNDAY FOR NEZ002-003-
     019>021-054-055-095-096.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...TJT



000
FXUS65 KCYS 070334
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
834 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 824 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

ONLY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT WAS TO EXTEND THE
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT...AND TO EXPAND THE HIGH WIND WARNING INTO THE SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE SUNDAY. WHILE WINDS MAY BE MARGINAL FOR HIGH
WIND WARNING AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE...THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING WINDS HOLDING UP A BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS. CURRENTLY SEVERAL WYDOT SITES AREA SUSTAINED IN THE 40 TO 50
MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS 55 TO 70 MPH. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BUT THE MAIN DECREASES WILL NOT
OCCUR UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THIS WEEKEND WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE BELOW 15 PERCENT.
FOR TODAY...HIGH WIND WARNINGS ACROSS OUR PRIMARY WIND PRONE
CORRIDORS LOOK ON TRACK WITH OBSERVED GUSTS OVER 70 MPH. THIS WIND
HAS PRODUCED DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ALL DAY ALONG INTERSTATE
25 BETWEEN CHEYENNE AND WHEATLAND DUE TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
ON THE ROADS. BLOWING SNOW IS ALSO BEING REPORTED WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE...BUT THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MORE PATCHY DUE TO A
DIMINISHING SNOW PACK IN THOSE AREAS.

WINDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING
THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT IT WILL STILL REMAIN RATHER WINDY WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 40 TO 50 MPH EVEN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
WHICH IS CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS
FRONT WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...BUT WILL
HELP WITH SLIGHTLY LOWERING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WIND
PRONE LOCATIONS. THIS WILL NOT BE THE CASE FOR WESTERN
NEBRASKA...WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE WITH STRONG WINDS GUSTING OVER 55 MPH AT TIMES.
AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...DECIDED TO UPGRADE
THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING ACROSS DAWES...BOX BUTTE...AND
NRN SIOUX COUNTY BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE WATCH GOING FOR THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...BUT EXPECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TO BE
UPGRADED AS WELL DUE TO LOW TO MIDLEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND 850MB WINDS
BETWEEN 45 TO 55 KNOTS AND GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. TIMING OF
THE STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE SLIGHTLY LATER COMPARED TO THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE. IT WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN A GOOD AGREEMENT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT
BASIN REGION. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA DUE TO NORTHERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
MODIFY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 IN THE
AFTERNOON. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIND CONCERNS ON MONDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL BE WEAKER COMPARED TO
THIS WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH BREEZY OR WINDY CONDITIONS ARE STILL
EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

MILD TEMPS AND BREEZY-TO-WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE GREAT BASIN FROM TUES THROUGH FRI WITH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS THE CWA.  THE LLVL GRADIENT WILL BE
HIGH ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN A CONSTANT BREEZINESS ACROSS THE AREA AND
ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST WYOMING.  HOWEVER...WITH THE 850 MB CAG-CPR
GRADIENT OF 35-50 METERS...DO NOT ENVISION ANY WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND
HIGHLIGHTS ACROSS THE WIND PRONE AREAS.  UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND 700 MB TEMPS OF 0-3C...HIGHS TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S EACH DAY.  THIS WILL BE A NICE
BREAK FROM THE COLD START TO THE MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 427 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN ELEVATED OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
GUSTS TO 30-35 KTS. THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL SEE WINDS DROP OFF
AFTER AROUND 02Z. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE AREA BY LATE
TONIGHT WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO NORTHWEST. IT WILL BECOME QUITE
WINDY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 35-40
KTS. CLOUD COVER WILL MAINLY BE LIMITED TO MID TO HIGH LEVEL.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1246 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT WEEK DUE TO A WIDESPREAD
SNOWPACK ACROSS THE AREA AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. A WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT NO CONCERNS
ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ABOVE 30
PERCENT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR WYZ116-117.

NE...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM MST SUNDAY FOR NEZ002-003-
     019>021-054-055-095-096.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...TJT



000
FXUS65 KCYS 070334
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
834 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 824 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

ONLY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT WAS TO EXTEND THE
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT...AND TO EXPAND THE HIGH WIND WARNING INTO THE SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE SUNDAY. WHILE WINDS MAY BE MARGINAL FOR HIGH
WIND WARNING AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE...THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING WINDS HOLDING UP A BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS. CURRENTLY SEVERAL WYDOT SITES AREA SUSTAINED IN THE 40 TO 50
MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS 55 TO 70 MPH. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BUT THE MAIN DECREASES WILL NOT
OCCUR UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THIS WEEKEND WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE BELOW 15 PERCENT.
FOR TODAY...HIGH WIND WARNINGS ACROSS OUR PRIMARY WIND PRONE
CORRIDORS LOOK ON TRACK WITH OBSERVED GUSTS OVER 70 MPH. THIS WIND
HAS PRODUCED DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ALL DAY ALONG INTERSTATE
25 BETWEEN CHEYENNE AND WHEATLAND DUE TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
ON THE ROADS. BLOWING SNOW IS ALSO BEING REPORTED WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE...BUT THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MORE PATCHY DUE TO A
DIMINISHING SNOW PACK IN THOSE AREAS.

WINDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING
THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT IT WILL STILL REMAIN RATHER WINDY WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 40 TO 50 MPH EVEN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
WHICH IS CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS
FRONT WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...BUT WILL
HELP WITH SLIGHTLY LOWERING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WIND
PRONE LOCATIONS. THIS WILL NOT BE THE CASE FOR WESTERN
NEBRASKA...WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE WITH STRONG WINDS GUSTING OVER 55 MPH AT TIMES.
AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...DECIDED TO UPGRADE
THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING ACROSS DAWES...BOX BUTTE...AND
NRN SIOUX COUNTY BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE WATCH GOING FOR THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...BUT EXPECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TO BE
UPGRADED AS WELL DUE TO LOW TO MIDLEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND 850MB WINDS
BETWEEN 45 TO 55 KNOTS AND GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. TIMING OF
THE STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE SLIGHTLY LATER COMPARED TO THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE. IT WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN A GOOD AGREEMENT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT
BASIN REGION. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA DUE TO NORTHERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
MODIFY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 IN THE
AFTERNOON. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIND CONCERNS ON MONDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL BE WEAKER COMPARED TO
THIS WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH BREEZY OR WINDY CONDITIONS ARE STILL
EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

MILD TEMPS AND BREEZY-TO-WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE GREAT BASIN FROM TUES THROUGH FRI WITH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS THE CWA.  THE LLVL GRADIENT WILL BE
HIGH ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN A CONSTANT BREEZINESS ACROSS THE AREA AND
ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST WYOMING.  HOWEVER...WITH THE 850 MB CAG-CPR
GRADIENT OF 35-50 METERS...DO NOT ENVISION ANY WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND
HIGHLIGHTS ACROSS THE WIND PRONE AREAS.  UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND 700 MB TEMPS OF 0-3C...HIGHS TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S EACH DAY.  THIS WILL BE A NICE
BREAK FROM THE COLD START TO THE MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 427 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN ELEVATED OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
GUSTS TO 30-35 KTS. THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL SEE WINDS DROP OFF
AFTER AROUND 02Z. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE AREA BY LATE
TONIGHT WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO NORTHWEST. IT WILL BECOME QUITE
WINDY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 35-40
KTS. CLOUD COVER WILL MAINLY BE LIMITED TO MID TO HIGH LEVEL.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1246 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT WEEK DUE TO A WIDESPREAD
SNOWPACK ACROSS THE AREA AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. A WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT NO CONCERNS
ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ABOVE 30
PERCENT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR WYZ116-117.

NE...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM MST SUNDAY FOR NEZ002-003-
     019>021-054-055-095-096.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...TJT



000
FXUS65 KCYS 070334
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
834 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 824 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

ONLY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT WAS TO EXTEND THE
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT...AND TO EXPAND THE HIGH WIND WARNING INTO THE SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE SUNDAY. WHILE WINDS MAY BE MARGINAL FOR HIGH
WIND WARNING AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE...THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING WINDS HOLDING UP A BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS. CURRENTLY SEVERAL WYDOT SITES AREA SUSTAINED IN THE 40 TO 50
MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS 55 TO 70 MPH. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BUT THE MAIN DECREASES WILL NOT
OCCUR UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THIS WEEKEND WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE BELOW 15 PERCENT.
FOR TODAY...HIGH WIND WARNINGS ACROSS OUR PRIMARY WIND PRONE
CORRIDORS LOOK ON TRACK WITH OBSERVED GUSTS OVER 70 MPH. THIS WIND
HAS PRODUCED DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ALL DAY ALONG INTERSTATE
25 BETWEEN CHEYENNE AND WHEATLAND DUE TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
ON THE ROADS. BLOWING SNOW IS ALSO BEING REPORTED WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE...BUT THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MORE PATCHY DUE TO A
DIMINISHING SNOW PACK IN THOSE AREAS.

WINDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING
THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT IT WILL STILL REMAIN RATHER WINDY WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 40 TO 50 MPH EVEN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
WHICH IS CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS
FRONT WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...BUT WILL
HELP WITH SLIGHTLY LOWERING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WIND
PRONE LOCATIONS. THIS WILL NOT BE THE CASE FOR WESTERN
NEBRASKA...WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE WITH STRONG WINDS GUSTING OVER 55 MPH AT TIMES.
AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...DECIDED TO UPGRADE
THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING ACROSS DAWES...BOX BUTTE...AND
NRN SIOUX COUNTY BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE WATCH GOING FOR THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...BUT EXPECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TO BE
UPGRADED AS WELL DUE TO LOW TO MIDLEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND 850MB WINDS
BETWEEN 45 TO 55 KNOTS AND GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. TIMING OF
THE STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE SLIGHTLY LATER COMPARED TO THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE. IT WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN A GOOD AGREEMENT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT
BASIN REGION. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA DUE TO NORTHERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
MODIFY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 IN THE
AFTERNOON. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIND CONCERNS ON MONDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL BE WEAKER COMPARED TO
THIS WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH BREEZY OR WINDY CONDITIONS ARE STILL
EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

MILD TEMPS AND BREEZY-TO-WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE GREAT BASIN FROM TUES THROUGH FRI WITH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS THE CWA.  THE LLVL GRADIENT WILL BE
HIGH ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN A CONSTANT BREEZINESS ACROSS THE AREA AND
ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST WYOMING.  HOWEVER...WITH THE 850 MB CAG-CPR
GRADIENT OF 35-50 METERS...DO NOT ENVISION ANY WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND
HIGHLIGHTS ACROSS THE WIND PRONE AREAS.  UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND 700 MB TEMPS OF 0-3C...HIGHS TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S EACH DAY.  THIS WILL BE A NICE
BREAK FROM THE COLD START TO THE MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 427 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN ELEVATED OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
GUSTS TO 30-35 KTS. THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL SEE WINDS DROP OFF
AFTER AROUND 02Z. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE AREA BY LATE
TONIGHT WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO NORTHWEST. IT WILL BECOME QUITE
WINDY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 35-40
KTS. CLOUD COVER WILL MAINLY BE LIMITED TO MID TO HIGH LEVEL.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1246 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT WEEK DUE TO A WIDESPREAD
SNOWPACK ACROSS THE AREA AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. A WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT NO CONCERNS
ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ABOVE 30
PERCENT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR WYZ116-117.

NE...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM MST SUNDAY FOR NEZ002-003-
     019>021-054-055-095-096.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...TJT




000
FXUS63 KUNR 070228
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
728 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 722 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

00Z KUNR SOUNDING MIXED TO ABOUT 500MB SAVE FOR A MODEST FRONTAL
INVERSION AROUND 750MB. INITIAL ISALLOBARIC FORCING BEHIND COLD
FRONT QUITE VIGOROUS WITH MANY REPORTS OF HIGH WINDS. WATER VAPOUR
LOOP SHOWED WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE ZIPPING ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS WITH EXCELLENT SUBSIDENCE/DRYING BEHIND IT. SURFACE LOW
WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN MB AT 02Z...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN TIGHT
GRADIENT OVER THE CWA THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT PARTIAL DECOUPLING WILL
OCCUR REST OF THE NIGHT UNTIL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN
AB/SK STIRS THINGS UP AGAIN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGH WINDS LIKELY OVER
MOST OF WESTERN SD.

CURRENT HEADLINES IN GOOD SHAPE...BUT WILL TWEAK FORECAST FOR
LATEST WIND/CLOUD COVER TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 132 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

VERY POTENT BUT COMPACT SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A SFC COLD FRONT QUICKLY ADVECTING SE TOWARD
THE FA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING VERY STRONG WINDS TO THE REGION FOR
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME /TONIGHT INTO SUN EVENING/. INITIAL
ROUND OF PRESSURE RISES AND CAA WILL ENSUE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS. DIURNAL
BL COOLING WILL SUBDUE WINDS MOST PLACES OUTSIDE OF TERRAIN
ENHANCED AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT. A SECONDARY BACKSIDE IMPULSE WILL
DIRECT RE-NEWED PRESSURE RISES ACROSS THE REGION SUN
MORNING,...WITH DIURNAL HEATING ALLOWING MIXING OF STRONGER
MOMENTUM TO THE SFC. BUFR PROFILES SUGGEST VERY STRONG WINDS WITH
MIXING POTENTIALS SUPPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH
GUSTS IN THE 70S/S MPH. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE WINDS GUSTS
OVER 80 MPH IN FAR NW SD AND IN THE LEE OF THE BH GIVEN FLOW
ENHANCEMENT AROUND THE HILLS. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
LATE SUNDAY MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON PERIOD. LEFT ALL HEADLINES AS
IS.

AS FOR PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM...VERY DRY PROFILES PER RAOB
ANALYSIS CONFIRMS DISMAL QPF OUTPUT FROM MODELS. RETAIN A LOW
CHANCE MENTION IN THE HILLS WHERE UPSLOPE FORCING MAY SQUEEZE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...A FEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS IN THE
SYSTEM COLD POOL MAY CLIP FAR EASTERN SCENTRAL SD SUN AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 132 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE STRONG WINDS FROM SUNDAY WILL BEGIN TO DIE DOWN
DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS TO BE
MAINLY DRY AS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND RIDGE SET UP IN THE EAST
AND WEST CONUS...RESPECTIVELY. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE FOR THE CENTRAL CONUS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM UP CONSIDERABLY BY MID WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS NWP GUIDANCE FORECASTS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO CLIP NORTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AROUND THIS SAME TIME...AN ARCTIC FRONT
WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN AS THE LOWEST SEVERAL
THOUSAND FEET REMAIN SATURATED AND BELOW FREEZING...BUT THE
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE IS DRY. ECMWF SOUNDINGS ARE A BIT MORE
SATURATED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND WOULD SUGGEST SNOW AS THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST MAINLY DRY FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD...BUT WILL MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW/ICE IN THE COMING
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 425 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

INITIAL COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WESTERN SD EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS FROM 35-50KTS WITH ISALLOBARIC
SURGE/MIXING. WINDS WILL SLACKEN OVERNIGHT. STRONG WINDS WILL
DEVELOP SUNDAY WITH 25-40G65KTS AT TIMES GIVEN GRADIENT/COLD AIR
ADVECTION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM MST /MIDNIGHT CST/ THIS EVENING TO
     8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ SUNDAY FOR SDZ024-028-029-043-044-046-
     047-049.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR
     SDZ027-041-042.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012>014-
     025-026-030>032-072>074.

WY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR
     WYZ057.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR WYZ071.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MCKEMY
AVIATION...HELGESON



000
FXUS63 KUNR 070228
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
728 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 722 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

00Z KUNR SOUNDING MIXED TO ABOUT 500MB SAVE FOR A MODEST FRONTAL
INVERSION AROUND 750MB. INITIAL ISALLOBARIC FORCING BEHIND COLD
FRONT QUITE VIGOROUS WITH MANY REPORTS OF HIGH WINDS. WATER VAPOUR
LOOP SHOWED WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE ZIPPING ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS WITH EXCELLENT SUBSIDENCE/DRYING BEHIND IT. SURFACE LOW
WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN MB AT 02Z...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN TIGHT
GRADIENT OVER THE CWA THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT PARTIAL DECOUPLING WILL
OCCUR REST OF THE NIGHT UNTIL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN
AB/SK STIRS THINGS UP AGAIN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGH WINDS LIKELY OVER
MOST OF WESTERN SD.

CURRENT HEADLINES IN GOOD SHAPE...BUT WILL TWEAK FORECAST FOR
LATEST WIND/CLOUD COVER TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 132 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

VERY POTENT BUT COMPACT SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A SFC COLD FRONT QUICKLY ADVECTING SE TOWARD
THE FA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING VERY STRONG WINDS TO THE REGION FOR
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME /TONIGHT INTO SUN EVENING/. INITIAL
ROUND OF PRESSURE RISES AND CAA WILL ENSUE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS. DIURNAL
BL COOLING WILL SUBDUE WINDS MOST PLACES OUTSIDE OF TERRAIN
ENHANCED AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT. A SECONDARY BACKSIDE IMPULSE WILL
DIRECT RE-NEWED PRESSURE RISES ACROSS THE REGION SUN
MORNING,...WITH DIURNAL HEATING ALLOWING MIXING OF STRONGER
MOMENTUM TO THE SFC. BUFR PROFILES SUGGEST VERY STRONG WINDS WITH
MIXING POTENTIALS SUPPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH
GUSTS IN THE 70S/S MPH. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE WINDS GUSTS
OVER 80 MPH IN FAR NW SD AND IN THE LEE OF THE BH GIVEN FLOW
ENHANCEMENT AROUND THE HILLS. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
LATE SUNDAY MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON PERIOD. LEFT ALL HEADLINES AS
IS.

AS FOR PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM...VERY DRY PROFILES PER RAOB
ANALYSIS CONFIRMS DISMAL QPF OUTPUT FROM MODELS. RETAIN A LOW
CHANCE MENTION IN THE HILLS WHERE UPSLOPE FORCING MAY SQUEEZE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...A FEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS IN THE
SYSTEM COLD POOL MAY CLIP FAR EASTERN SCENTRAL SD SUN AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 132 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE STRONG WINDS FROM SUNDAY WILL BEGIN TO DIE DOWN
DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS TO BE
MAINLY DRY AS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND RIDGE SET UP IN THE EAST
AND WEST CONUS...RESPECTIVELY. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE FOR THE CENTRAL CONUS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM UP CONSIDERABLY BY MID WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS NWP GUIDANCE FORECASTS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO CLIP NORTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AROUND THIS SAME TIME...AN ARCTIC FRONT
WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN AS THE LOWEST SEVERAL
THOUSAND FEET REMAIN SATURATED AND BELOW FREEZING...BUT THE
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE IS DRY. ECMWF SOUNDINGS ARE A BIT MORE
SATURATED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND WOULD SUGGEST SNOW AS THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST MAINLY DRY FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD...BUT WILL MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW/ICE IN THE COMING
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 425 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

INITIAL COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WESTERN SD EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS FROM 35-50KTS WITH ISALLOBARIC
SURGE/MIXING. WINDS WILL SLACKEN OVERNIGHT. STRONG WINDS WILL
DEVELOP SUNDAY WITH 25-40G65KTS AT TIMES GIVEN GRADIENT/COLD AIR
ADVECTION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM MST /MIDNIGHT CST/ THIS EVENING TO
     8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ SUNDAY FOR SDZ024-028-029-043-044-046-
     047-049.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR
     SDZ027-041-042.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012>014-
     025-026-030>032-072>074.

WY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR
     WYZ057.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR WYZ071.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MCKEMY
AVIATION...HELGESON




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