Home > Products > State Listing > Wyoming Data
Latest:
 AFDCYS |  AFDRIW |  AFDUNR |
  [top]

000
FXUS65 KRIW 010524
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1124 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY (ISSUED AT 211 PM MDT)

WV IMAGERY SHOWING UPR RIDGE JUST TO THE W WITH N/S AXIS STRETCHING
FROM THE NRN ROCKIES THRU THE GREAT BASIN...AND LARGE TROF/CLOSED
SYSTEM ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. WY IS STUCK UNDER WEAK NW
FLOW...WITH A WEAK UPR DISTURBANCE HEADED INTO THE STATE FROM THE
W/SW WITH ITS AXIS LOCATED FROM CNTRL ID TO SWRN WY. AT THE
SFC...RATHER DIFFUSE 1020ISH HIGH PRESS IS PRESENT OVER MOST OF THE
STATE...WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO THE N IN ERN MT.

TODAY/TONIGHT...WITHOUT SFC BOUNDARIES/FORCING AROUND FOR THE
MOST PART...THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION AND ACTION...WITH LITTLE CONVECTIVE ELSEWHERE OR VERY FAR
AWAY FROM THE MOUNTAINS. WITH WEAK UPR LVL FLOW...STORM MOTION WILL
BE VARIABLE OR TERRAIN TIED...WITH STORMS THAT TRY TO MOVE
PERPENDICULAR TO THE RIDGE LINE NOT REALLY GOING ANYWHERE. THOSE IN
THE WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS MAY SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE RANGE
AS UPR FLOW IN MORE ORIENTED FROM NW TO SE. THE BROAD NATURE OF THIS
LITTLE DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA OVR THE CNTRL
AND ERN MOUNTAINS WELL INTO THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT...BUT
WILL LIKELY END THIS EVENING OVR THE WRN MOUNTAINS.

FRI...WEAK UPR LVLS CONTINUE WITH A WEAK RIDGE TOPPING SW...NOW
LOCATED JUST N OF THE NW MT BORDER AREA...MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE
NRN CWA THRU THE MORNING...PUSHING THE ERN MT SFC LOW AND FRONT WITH
IT TO THE S/SE. MONSOONAL MOISTURE NOT REALLY A FACTOR FRI...AS IT
WILL BECOME AGAIN THRU THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...WHILE THE MOUNTAINS WILL
SEE THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION THIS DAY...THE ADDITION OF THE
WEAK LOW/FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA WILL ALSO PROVIDE FOR A LITTLE
LLVL FORCING ELSEWHERE....MAINLY FROM NATRONA TO THE SW AND THROUGH
SWEETWATER COUNTIES BY FRI AFTERNOON...AND PRIMARILY OVR NEAR HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THOSE AREAS...SUCH AS CASPER MOUNTAIN...THE GREEN AND
RATTLESNAKE MOUNTAINS...ETC. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THIS AREA SHOULD GIVE AT LEAST LOW END CHCS FOR LIGHT
PRECIP TO FALL ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OF FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA. AGAIN...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS ALTHOUGH A FEW MAY DRIFT INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

BY FRIDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE MODELS
ARE SPLIT ON COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WITH THE NAM AND EUROPEAN
LOOKING A BIT WETTER WHILE THE GFS IS DRIER FOR NOW. WE BLENDED
CONTINUITY AND THE NEW RUNS WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER POPS. HOWEVER...IT
STILL APPEARS THAT A VAST MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE HIGH ELEVATION HEAT SOURCE.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM BUT ONLY BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS.

AS FOR THE WEEKEND...BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK LIKE MORE OF THE
SAME AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE SAME WEAK HIGH PRESSURE/DIRT RIDGE
SITUATION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES
WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION AROUND EACH
DAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN. HOWEVER...EVEN THERE IT LOOKS AS THOUGH A MAJORITY OF EACH
DAY LOOKS TO BE RAIN FREE.

THIS PATTERN THEN LOOKS TO SHIFT THOUGH AS WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT IN BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF
DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST.
THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO THE EXACT TIMING OF THE
ARRIVAL OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE. CONTINUITY LOOKED TO HAVE A FAIRLY
GOOD HANDLE ON IT AND AS A RESULT WE MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION. AT THIS POINT...IT COULD BE MORE OF A
SITUATION LIKE LAST TUESDAY WITH A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND ALONG WITH
MORE SHOWERS THAN THUNDERSTORMS. SO WE WENT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST AREAS. THE OTHER CONCERN IS
TEMPERATURES ON THOSE DAYS AS CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING.
IT IS TOO FAR OUT RIGHT NOW TO SAY HIGHS MAY STAY IN THE 60S IN SOME
AREAS. WE DID...HOWEVER...KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW THE MOS
GUIDANCE. THERE ARE ALSO DIFFERENCES AS TO HOW QUICK THE MOISTURE
MOVES OUT ON WEDNESDAY. ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE DIFFERENCES WE HAVE
MADE FEW CHANGES WITH CONTINUITY. BY THURSDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND THE
EUROPEAN MODELS SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE MOVING SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA. AS A RESULT...WE SHOULD RETURN TO THE DIRTY RIDGE PATTERN
OF MAINLY DIURNAL HIGH ELEVATION HEAT SOURCE CONVECTION WITH NEAR
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...KCPR/KRIW/KLND/KWRL/KCOD

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL FORM OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 19Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH
02Z. A FEW OF THE STORMS AND SHOWERS WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. MOST
TERMINAL SITES WILL NOT BE IMPACTED DIRECTLY BY THIS ACTIVITY. SEE
INDIVIDUAL TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILS.

WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...KJAC/KBPI/KPNA/KRKS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL FORM OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 18Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH
03Z. A FEW OF THE STORMS AND SHOWERS WILL DRIFT EAST OR SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. TERMINAL SITES MAY BE IMPACTED BY THIS ACTIVITY...SEE
INDIVIDUAL TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL BRING ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND A FEW
ADJACENT VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH EVENING. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONABLE BUT ON THE COOL SIDE WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES RANGE
FROM 20 TO 40 PERCENT FOR MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE BIG HORN BASIN
WHICH COULD SEE RH VALUES AS LOW A 15 PERCENT IN PLACES. LITTLE WIND
IS EXPECTED HOWEVER. FRIDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
PARKED OVER THE ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO
PUSH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ONCE AGAIN OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
REGION...WITH SMALLER CHANCES OVER AND NEAR THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD
LAY FROM NATRONA TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THROUGH SWEETWATER COUNTY BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES OVER
THOSE OF TODAY...HOWEVER MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOUT THE
SAME AND WIND WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
START A RETURN...BRINGING LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY...THEN ALL MOUNTAINS AND A FEW LOWER
ELEVATIONS ON SUNDAY. MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BOTH COOL OFF AND
INCREASE MOISTURE WITH MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WINDS MAY PICK UP A BIT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAUN
LONG TERM...HATTINGS
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN









000
FXUS65 KRIW 010524
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1124 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY (ISSUED AT 211 PM MDT)

WV IMAGERY SHOWING UPR RIDGE JUST TO THE W WITH N/S AXIS STRETCHING
FROM THE NRN ROCKIES THRU THE GREAT BASIN...AND LARGE TROF/CLOSED
SYSTEM ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. WY IS STUCK UNDER WEAK NW
FLOW...WITH A WEAK UPR DISTURBANCE HEADED INTO THE STATE FROM THE
W/SW WITH ITS AXIS LOCATED FROM CNTRL ID TO SWRN WY. AT THE
SFC...RATHER DIFFUSE 1020ISH HIGH PRESS IS PRESENT OVER MOST OF THE
STATE...WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO THE N IN ERN MT.

TODAY/TONIGHT...WITHOUT SFC BOUNDARIES/FORCING AROUND FOR THE
MOST PART...THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION AND ACTION...WITH LITTLE CONVECTIVE ELSEWHERE OR VERY FAR
AWAY FROM THE MOUNTAINS. WITH WEAK UPR LVL FLOW...STORM MOTION WILL
BE VARIABLE OR TERRAIN TIED...WITH STORMS THAT TRY TO MOVE
PERPENDICULAR TO THE RIDGE LINE NOT REALLY GOING ANYWHERE. THOSE IN
THE WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS MAY SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE RANGE
AS UPR FLOW IN MORE ORIENTED FROM NW TO SE. THE BROAD NATURE OF THIS
LITTLE DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA OVR THE CNTRL
AND ERN MOUNTAINS WELL INTO THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT...BUT
WILL LIKELY END THIS EVENING OVR THE WRN MOUNTAINS.

FRI...WEAK UPR LVLS CONTINUE WITH A WEAK RIDGE TOPPING SW...NOW
LOCATED JUST N OF THE NW MT BORDER AREA...MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE
NRN CWA THRU THE MORNING...PUSHING THE ERN MT SFC LOW AND FRONT WITH
IT TO THE S/SE. MONSOONAL MOISTURE NOT REALLY A FACTOR FRI...AS IT
WILL BECOME AGAIN THRU THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...WHILE THE MOUNTAINS WILL
SEE THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION THIS DAY...THE ADDITION OF THE
WEAK LOW/FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA WILL ALSO PROVIDE FOR A LITTLE
LLVL FORCING ELSEWHERE....MAINLY FROM NATRONA TO THE SW AND THROUGH
SWEETWATER COUNTIES BY FRI AFTERNOON...AND PRIMARILY OVR NEAR HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THOSE AREAS...SUCH AS CASPER MOUNTAIN...THE GREEN AND
RATTLESNAKE MOUNTAINS...ETC. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THIS AREA SHOULD GIVE AT LEAST LOW END CHCS FOR LIGHT
PRECIP TO FALL ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OF FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA. AGAIN...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS ALTHOUGH A FEW MAY DRIFT INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

BY FRIDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE MODELS
ARE SPLIT ON COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WITH THE NAM AND EUROPEAN
LOOKING A BIT WETTER WHILE THE GFS IS DRIER FOR NOW. WE BLENDED
CONTINUITY AND THE NEW RUNS WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER POPS. HOWEVER...IT
STILL APPEARS THAT A VAST MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE HIGH ELEVATION HEAT SOURCE.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM BUT ONLY BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS.

AS FOR THE WEEKEND...BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK LIKE MORE OF THE
SAME AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE SAME WEAK HIGH PRESSURE/DIRT RIDGE
SITUATION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES
WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION AROUND EACH
DAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN. HOWEVER...EVEN THERE IT LOOKS AS THOUGH A MAJORITY OF EACH
DAY LOOKS TO BE RAIN FREE.

THIS PATTERN THEN LOOKS TO SHIFT THOUGH AS WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT IN BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF
DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST.
THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO THE EXACT TIMING OF THE
ARRIVAL OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE. CONTINUITY LOOKED TO HAVE A FAIRLY
GOOD HANDLE ON IT AND AS A RESULT WE MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION. AT THIS POINT...IT COULD BE MORE OF A
SITUATION LIKE LAST TUESDAY WITH A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND ALONG WITH
MORE SHOWERS THAN THUNDERSTORMS. SO WE WENT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST AREAS. THE OTHER CONCERN IS
TEMPERATURES ON THOSE DAYS AS CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING.
IT IS TOO FAR OUT RIGHT NOW TO SAY HIGHS MAY STAY IN THE 60S IN SOME
AREAS. WE DID...HOWEVER...KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW THE MOS
GUIDANCE. THERE ARE ALSO DIFFERENCES AS TO HOW QUICK THE MOISTURE
MOVES OUT ON WEDNESDAY. ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE DIFFERENCES WE HAVE
MADE FEW CHANGES WITH CONTINUITY. BY THURSDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND THE
EUROPEAN MODELS SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE MOVING SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA. AS A RESULT...WE SHOULD RETURN TO THE DIRTY RIDGE PATTERN
OF MAINLY DIURNAL HIGH ELEVATION HEAT SOURCE CONVECTION WITH NEAR
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...KCPR/KRIW/KLND/KWRL/KCOD

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL FORM OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 19Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH
02Z. A FEW OF THE STORMS AND SHOWERS WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. MOST
TERMINAL SITES WILL NOT BE IMPACTED DIRECTLY BY THIS ACTIVITY. SEE
INDIVIDUAL TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILS.

WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...KJAC/KBPI/KPNA/KRKS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL FORM OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 18Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH
03Z. A FEW OF THE STORMS AND SHOWERS WILL DRIFT EAST OR SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. TERMINAL SITES MAY BE IMPACTED BY THIS ACTIVITY...SEE
INDIVIDUAL TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL BRING ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND A FEW
ADJACENT VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH EVENING. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONABLE BUT ON THE COOL SIDE WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES RANGE
FROM 20 TO 40 PERCENT FOR MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE BIG HORN BASIN
WHICH COULD SEE RH VALUES AS LOW A 15 PERCENT IN PLACES. LITTLE WIND
IS EXPECTED HOWEVER. FRIDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
PARKED OVER THE ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO
PUSH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ONCE AGAIN OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
REGION...WITH SMALLER CHANCES OVER AND NEAR THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD
LAY FROM NATRONA TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THROUGH SWEETWATER COUNTY BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES OVER
THOSE OF TODAY...HOWEVER MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOUT THE
SAME AND WIND WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
START A RETURN...BRINGING LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY...THEN ALL MOUNTAINS AND A FEW LOWER
ELEVATIONS ON SUNDAY. MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BOTH COOL OFF AND
INCREASE MOISTURE WITH MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WINDS MAY PICK UP A BIT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAUN
LONG TERM...HATTINGS
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN









000
FXUS65 KRIW 010524
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1124 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY (ISSUED AT 211 PM MDT)

WV IMAGERY SHOWING UPR RIDGE JUST TO THE W WITH N/S AXIS STRETCHING
FROM THE NRN ROCKIES THRU THE GREAT BASIN...AND LARGE TROF/CLOSED
SYSTEM ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. WY IS STUCK UNDER WEAK NW
FLOW...WITH A WEAK UPR DISTURBANCE HEADED INTO THE STATE FROM THE
W/SW WITH ITS AXIS LOCATED FROM CNTRL ID TO SWRN WY. AT THE
SFC...RATHER DIFFUSE 1020ISH HIGH PRESS IS PRESENT OVER MOST OF THE
STATE...WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO THE N IN ERN MT.

TODAY/TONIGHT...WITHOUT SFC BOUNDARIES/FORCING AROUND FOR THE
MOST PART...THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION AND ACTION...WITH LITTLE CONVECTIVE ELSEWHERE OR VERY FAR
AWAY FROM THE MOUNTAINS. WITH WEAK UPR LVL FLOW...STORM MOTION WILL
BE VARIABLE OR TERRAIN TIED...WITH STORMS THAT TRY TO MOVE
PERPENDICULAR TO THE RIDGE LINE NOT REALLY GOING ANYWHERE. THOSE IN
THE WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS MAY SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE RANGE
AS UPR FLOW IN MORE ORIENTED FROM NW TO SE. THE BROAD NATURE OF THIS
LITTLE DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA OVR THE CNTRL
AND ERN MOUNTAINS WELL INTO THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT...BUT
WILL LIKELY END THIS EVENING OVR THE WRN MOUNTAINS.

FRI...WEAK UPR LVLS CONTINUE WITH A WEAK RIDGE TOPPING SW...NOW
LOCATED JUST N OF THE NW MT BORDER AREA...MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE
NRN CWA THRU THE MORNING...PUSHING THE ERN MT SFC LOW AND FRONT WITH
IT TO THE S/SE. MONSOONAL MOISTURE NOT REALLY A FACTOR FRI...AS IT
WILL BECOME AGAIN THRU THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...WHILE THE MOUNTAINS WILL
SEE THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION THIS DAY...THE ADDITION OF THE
WEAK LOW/FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA WILL ALSO PROVIDE FOR A LITTLE
LLVL FORCING ELSEWHERE....MAINLY FROM NATRONA TO THE SW AND THROUGH
SWEETWATER COUNTIES BY FRI AFTERNOON...AND PRIMARILY OVR NEAR HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THOSE AREAS...SUCH AS CASPER MOUNTAIN...THE GREEN AND
RATTLESNAKE MOUNTAINS...ETC. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THIS AREA SHOULD GIVE AT LEAST LOW END CHCS FOR LIGHT
PRECIP TO FALL ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OF FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA. AGAIN...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS ALTHOUGH A FEW MAY DRIFT INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

BY FRIDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE MODELS
ARE SPLIT ON COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WITH THE NAM AND EUROPEAN
LOOKING A BIT WETTER WHILE THE GFS IS DRIER FOR NOW. WE BLENDED
CONTINUITY AND THE NEW RUNS WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER POPS. HOWEVER...IT
STILL APPEARS THAT A VAST MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE HIGH ELEVATION HEAT SOURCE.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM BUT ONLY BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS.

AS FOR THE WEEKEND...BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK LIKE MORE OF THE
SAME AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE SAME WEAK HIGH PRESSURE/DIRT RIDGE
SITUATION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES
WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION AROUND EACH
DAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN. HOWEVER...EVEN THERE IT LOOKS AS THOUGH A MAJORITY OF EACH
DAY LOOKS TO BE RAIN FREE.

THIS PATTERN THEN LOOKS TO SHIFT THOUGH AS WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT IN BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF
DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST.
THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO THE EXACT TIMING OF THE
ARRIVAL OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE. CONTINUITY LOOKED TO HAVE A FAIRLY
GOOD HANDLE ON IT AND AS A RESULT WE MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION. AT THIS POINT...IT COULD BE MORE OF A
SITUATION LIKE LAST TUESDAY WITH A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND ALONG WITH
MORE SHOWERS THAN THUNDERSTORMS. SO WE WENT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST AREAS. THE OTHER CONCERN IS
TEMPERATURES ON THOSE DAYS AS CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING.
IT IS TOO FAR OUT RIGHT NOW TO SAY HIGHS MAY STAY IN THE 60S IN SOME
AREAS. WE DID...HOWEVER...KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW THE MOS
GUIDANCE. THERE ARE ALSO DIFFERENCES AS TO HOW QUICK THE MOISTURE
MOVES OUT ON WEDNESDAY. ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE DIFFERENCES WE HAVE
MADE FEW CHANGES WITH CONTINUITY. BY THURSDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND THE
EUROPEAN MODELS SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE MOVING SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA. AS A RESULT...WE SHOULD RETURN TO THE DIRTY RIDGE PATTERN
OF MAINLY DIURNAL HIGH ELEVATION HEAT SOURCE CONVECTION WITH NEAR
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...KCPR/KRIW/KLND/KWRL/KCOD

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL FORM OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 19Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH
02Z. A FEW OF THE STORMS AND SHOWERS WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. MOST
TERMINAL SITES WILL NOT BE IMPACTED DIRECTLY BY THIS ACTIVITY. SEE
INDIVIDUAL TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILS.

WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...KJAC/KBPI/KPNA/KRKS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL FORM OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 18Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH
03Z. A FEW OF THE STORMS AND SHOWERS WILL DRIFT EAST OR SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. TERMINAL SITES MAY BE IMPACTED BY THIS ACTIVITY...SEE
INDIVIDUAL TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL BRING ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND A FEW
ADJACENT VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH EVENING. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONABLE BUT ON THE COOL SIDE WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES RANGE
FROM 20 TO 40 PERCENT FOR MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE BIG HORN BASIN
WHICH COULD SEE RH VALUES AS LOW A 15 PERCENT IN PLACES. LITTLE WIND
IS EXPECTED HOWEVER. FRIDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
PARKED OVER THE ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO
PUSH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ONCE AGAIN OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
REGION...WITH SMALLER CHANCES OVER AND NEAR THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD
LAY FROM NATRONA TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THROUGH SWEETWATER COUNTY BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES OVER
THOSE OF TODAY...HOWEVER MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOUT THE
SAME AND WIND WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
START A RETURN...BRINGING LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY...THEN ALL MOUNTAINS AND A FEW LOWER
ELEVATIONS ON SUNDAY. MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BOTH COOL OFF AND
INCREASE MOISTURE WITH MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WINDS MAY PICK UP A BIT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAUN
LONG TERM...HATTINGS
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN









000
FXUS65 KRIW 010524
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1124 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY (ISSUED AT 211 PM MDT)

WV IMAGERY SHOWING UPR RIDGE JUST TO THE W WITH N/S AXIS STRETCHING
FROM THE NRN ROCKIES THRU THE GREAT BASIN...AND LARGE TROF/CLOSED
SYSTEM ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. WY IS STUCK UNDER WEAK NW
FLOW...WITH A WEAK UPR DISTURBANCE HEADED INTO THE STATE FROM THE
W/SW WITH ITS AXIS LOCATED FROM CNTRL ID TO SWRN WY. AT THE
SFC...RATHER DIFFUSE 1020ISH HIGH PRESS IS PRESENT OVER MOST OF THE
STATE...WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO THE N IN ERN MT.

TODAY/TONIGHT...WITHOUT SFC BOUNDARIES/FORCING AROUND FOR THE
MOST PART...THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION AND ACTION...WITH LITTLE CONVECTIVE ELSEWHERE OR VERY FAR
AWAY FROM THE MOUNTAINS. WITH WEAK UPR LVL FLOW...STORM MOTION WILL
BE VARIABLE OR TERRAIN TIED...WITH STORMS THAT TRY TO MOVE
PERPENDICULAR TO THE RIDGE LINE NOT REALLY GOING ANYWHERE. THOSE IN
THE WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS MAY SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE RANGE
AS UPR FLOW IN MORE ORIENTED FROM NW TO SE. THE BROAD NATURE OF THIS
LITTLE DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA OVR THE CNTRL
AND ERN MOUNTAINS WELL INTO THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT...BUT
WILL LIKELY END THIS EVENING OVR THE WRN MOUNTAINS.

FRI...WEAK UPR LVLS CONTINUE WITH A WEAK RIDGE TOPPING SW...NOW
LOCATED JUST N OF THE NW MT BORDER AREA...MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE
NRN CWA THRU THE MORNING...PUSHING THE ERN MT SFC LOW AND FRONT WITH
IT TO THE S/SE. MONSOONAL MOISTURE NOT REALLY A FACTOR FRI...AS IT
WILL BECOME AGAIN THRU THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...WHILE THE MOUNTAINS WILL
SEE THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION THIS DAY...THE ADDITION OF THE
WEAK LOW/FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA WILL ALSO PROVIDE FOR A LITTLE
LLVL FORCING ELSEWHERE....MAINLY FROM NATRONA TO THE SW AND THROUGH
SWEETWATER COUNTIES BY FRI AFTERNOON...AND PRIMARILY OVR NEAR HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THOSE AREAS...SUCH AS CASPER MOUNTAIN...THE GREEN AND
RATTLESNAKE MOUNTAINS...ETC. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THIS AREA SHOULD GIVE AT LEAST LOW END CHCS FOR LIGHT
PRECIP TO FALL ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OF FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA. AGAIN...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS ALTHOUGH A FEW MAY DRIFT INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

BY FRIDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE MODELS
ARE SPLIT ON COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WITH THE NAM AND EUROPEAN
LOOKING A BIT WETTER WHILE THE GFS IS DRIER FOR NOW. WE BLENDED
CONTINUITY AND THE NEW RUNS WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER POPS. HOWEVER...IT
STILL APPEARS THAT A VAST MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE HIGH ELEVATION HEAT SOURCE.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM BUT ONLY BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS.

AS FOR THE WEEKEND...BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK LIKE MORE OF THE
SAME AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE SAME WEAK HIGH PRESSURE/DIRT RIDGE
SITUATION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES
WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION AROUND EACH
DAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN. HOWEVER...EVEN THERE IT LOOKS AS THOUGH A MAJORITY OF EACH
DAY LOOKS TO BE RAIN FREE.

THIS PATTERN THEN LOOKS TO SHIFT THOUGH AS WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT IN BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF
DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST.
THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO THE EXACT TIMING OF THE
ARRIVAL OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE. CONTINUITY LOOKED TO HAVE A FAIRLY
GOOD HANDLE ON IT AND AS A RESULT WE MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION. AT THIS POINT...IT COULD BE MORE OF A
SITUATION LIKE LAST TUESDAY WITH A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND ALONG WITH
MORE SHOWERS THAN THUNDERSTORMS. SO WE WENT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST AREAS. THE OTHER CONCERN IS
TEMPERATURES ON THOSE DAYS AS CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING.
IT IS TOO FAR OUT RIGHT NOW TO SAY HIGHS MAY STAY IN THE 60S IN SOME
AREAS. WE DID...HOWEVER...KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW THE MOS
GUIDANCE. THERE ARE ALSO DIFFERENCES AS TO HOW QUICK THE MOISTURE
MOVES OUT ON WEDNESDAY. ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE DIFFERENCES WE HAVE
MADE FEW CHANGES WITH CONTINUITY. BY THURSDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND THE
EUROPEAN MODELS SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE MOVING SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA. AS A RESULT...WE SHOULD RETURN TO THE DIRTY RIDGE PATTERN
OF MAINLY DIURNAL HIGH ELEVATION HEAT SOURCE CONVECTION WITH NEAR
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...KCPR/KRIW/KLND/KWRL/KCOD

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL FORM OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 19Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH
02Z. A FEW OF THE STORMS AND SHOWERS WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. MOST
TERMINAL SITES WILL NOT BE IMPACTED DIRECTLY BY THIS ACTIVITY. SEE
INDIVIDUAL TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILS.

WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...KJAC/KBPI/KPNA/KRKS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL FORM OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 18Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH
03Z. A FEW OF THE STORMS AND SHOWERS WILL DRIFT EAST OR SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. TERMINAL SITES MAY BE IMPACTED BY THIS ACTIVITY...SEE
INDIVIDUAL TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL BRING ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND A FEW
ADJACENT VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH EVENING. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONABLE BUT ON THE COOL SIDE WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES RANGE
FROM 20 TO 40 PERCENT FOR MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE BIG HORN BASIN
WHICH COULD SEE RH VALUES AS LOW A 15 PERCENT IN PLACES. LITTLE WIND
IS EXPECTED HOWEVER. FRIDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
PARKED OVER THE ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO
PUSH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ONCE AGAIN OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
REGION...WITH SMALLER CHANCES OVER AND NEAR THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD
LAY FROM NATRONA TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THROUGH SWEETWATER COUNTY BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES OVER
THOSE OF TODAY...HOWEVER MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOUT THE
SAME AND WIND WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
START A RETURN...BRINGING LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY...THEN ALL MOUNTAINS AND A FEW LOWER
ELEVATIONS ON SUNDAY. MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BOTH COOL OFF AND
INCREASE MOISTURE WITH MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WINDS MAY PICK UP A BIT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAUN
LONG TERM...HATTINGS
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN








  [top]

000
FXUS65 KCYS 010513
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1113 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 912 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

LIGHT WINDS...MILD TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR
TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. FORECAST
RIGHT ON TRACK SO NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW. DRIER AIR HAS PUSHED INTO
THE AREA AS A RESULT WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE FROM EARLIER THIS
WEEK DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO. THERE IS STILL
A SLIGHT CHANCE AT A THUNDER SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT HAVE NOT SEEN TOO MUCH ACTIVITY NORTH OF STEAMBOAT
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON SO THE PROBABILITY FOR THESE THUNDER
SHOWERS APPEAR RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. MAY BE A FEW
READINGS BETWEEN 35 TO 40 DEGREES ACROSS THE LARAMIE VALLEY BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

VERY LITTLE WILL CHANGE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING OVER THE AREA. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO
THE SOUTHEAST WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES ON MODEL
SOUNDINGS. WITH JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY EXPECTED...MAY SEE SOME
LIGHT THUNDER SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHERN
NEBRASKA...BUT THEY SHOULD BE PRETTY ISOLATED OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS. NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH A BIT LESS MOISTURE COMPARED TO
FRIDAY AND INCREASED WARMING/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. KEPT HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL OVER MOST LOCATIONS AND
A FEW DEGREES BELOW MOS...MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS. GUIDANCE TENDS TO HAVE A NOTICEABLE WARM BIAS IN THESE
CASES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MORE EXPOSED RIDGES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY WITH
A SHORTWAVE BEGINNING TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN. EXPECT VERY WARM TEMPS FOR THE
CWA ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE...WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE INITIAL PUSH OF
DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE WILL IMPACT THE CWA ON MONDAY...AND THE GFS SHOWS AN
INITIAL PIECE OF ENERGY SOMEWHAT STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF OR GEM
MODELS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
CWA FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT FOR THIS SCENARIO. IN GENERAL...THE
ECMWF MAINTAINS A MORE COHERENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS SHEARS IT OUT INTO MORE A
STREAM OF MIDLEVEL ENERGY THROUGH THIS TIME. REGARDLESS THE
SOLUTION...PLENTIFUL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
CWA THROUGH THIS TIME WITH PWATS PROGGED TO RANGE FROM THREE-
QUARTERS AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF FROM WEST TO EAST. AS A
RESULT...LOOKING AT A GOOD CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUES-WED. WITH FAIRLY WARM TEMPS PROGGED AS
WELL...LI`S WILL AVERAGE AROUND MINUS 2 OR LESS...WHICH SUGGESTS
THAT CONVECTION COULD BECOME QUITE VIGOROUS AT TIMES. IN
ADDITION...RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS WILL OCCUR AT JET LEVEL...SO
LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN OUT OF THIS ACTIVITY.
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY AND WILL
BRING OVERALL DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE CWA. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUES-THURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR EXPECTED OVER ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING MTNS
NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  COVERAGE WILL BE VERY
LIMITED IF ANY OCCUR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...TJT









000
FXUS65 KCYS 010513
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1113 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 912 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

LIGHT WINDS...MILD TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR
TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. FORECAST
RIGHT ON TRACK SO NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW. DRIER AIR HAS PUSHED INTO
THE AREA AS A RESULT WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE FROM EARLIER THIS
WEEK DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO. THERE IS STILL
A SLIGHT CHANCE AT A THUNDER SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT HAVE NOT SEEN TOO MUCH ACTIVITY NORTH OF STEAMBOAT
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON SO THE PROBABILITY FOR THESE THUNDER
SHOWERS APPEAR RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. MAY BE A FEW
READINGS BETWEEN 35 TO 40 DEGREES ACROSS THE LARAMIE VALLEY BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

VERY LITTLE WILL CHANGE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING OVER THE AREA. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO
THE SOUTHEAST WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES ON MODEL
SOUNDINGS. WITH JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY EXPECTED...MAY SEE SOME
LIGHT THUNDER SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHERN
NEBRASKA...BUT THEY SHOULD BE PRETTY ISOLATED OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS. NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH A BIT LESS MOISTURE COMPARED TO
FRIDAY AND INCREASED WARMING/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. KEPT HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL OVER MOST LOCATIONS AND
A FEW DEGREES BELOW MOS...MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS. GUIDANCE TENDS TO HAVE A NOTICEABLE WARM BIAS IN THESE
CASES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MORE EXPOSED RIDGES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY WITH
A SHORTWAVE BEGINNING TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN. EXPECT VERY WARM TEMPS FOR THE
CWA ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE...WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE INITIAL PUSH OF
DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE WILL IMPACT THE CWA ON MONDAY...AND THE GFS SHOWS AN
INITIAL PIECE OF ENERGY SOMEWHAT STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF OR GEM
MODELS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
CWA FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT FOR THIS SCENARIO. IN GENERAL...THE
ECMWF MAINTAINS A MORE COHERENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS SHEARS IT OUT INTO MORE A
STREAM OF MIDLEVEL ENERGY THROUGH THIS TIME. REGARDLESS THE
SOLUTION...PLENTIFUL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
CWA THROUGH THIS TIME WITH PWATS PROGGED TO RANGE FROM THREE-
QUARTERS AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF FROM WEST TO EAST. AS A
RESULT...LOOKING AT A GOOD CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUES-WED. WITH FAIRLY WARM TEMPS PROGGED AS
WELL...LI`S WILL AVERAGE AROUND MINUS 2 OR LESS...WHICH SUGGESTS
THAT CONVECTION COULD BECOME QUITE VIGOROUS AT TIMES. IN
ADDITION...RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS WILL OCCUR AT JET LEVEL...SO
LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN OUT OF THIS ACTIVITY.
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY AND WILL
BRING OVERALL DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE CWA. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUES-THURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR EXPECTED OVER ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING MTNS
NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  COVERAGE WILL BE VERY
LIMITED IF ANY OCCUR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...TJT









  [top]

000
FXUS63 KUNR 010334
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
934 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

A SMALL CLUSTER OF TSTMS JUST EAST OF RAPID CITY CONTINUES TO PUSH
SEWD...WITH RADAR TRENDS SUGGESTING A DECREASE IN THIS ACTIVITY.
ONLY CHANGE TO FCST WAS TO ADD SMALL POPS INTO PARTS OF SWRN SD TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

A RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK
SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS/SUBTLE DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS
RIDGE AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FORCING FOR
UPWARD/DOWNWARD MOTION WILL BE WEAK...AND MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL. THICKNESSES WILL BE STEADY TO SLOWLY RISING
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AS A RESULT...ONLY SMALL CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...MLCAPE OF NEAR 500 J/KG AND LIMITED
FORCING FOR UPWARD MOTION WILL BRING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
BLACK HILLS AND PARTS OF WESTERN SD. ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP
SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY IN THE EVENING...AND WEAK CAPE/SHEAR
INDICATES SEVERE WEATHER WILL NOT OCCUR.

LATER TONIGHT..A SUBTLE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE CWA WITH
WEAK Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE BY 12Z OVER THE WRN CWA. LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL BE FOCUSED OVER NWRN SD AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES TO
NEAR FAR NWRN SD. WITH MUCAPE AROUND 250 J/KG...MAY SEE DEVELOPMENT
OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CWA.

ON FRIDAY...WEAK Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS PROGGED AS THE SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH PROGRESSES ACROSS THE CWA. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE RELATIVE TO TODAY...AND THUS THERE WILL BE A SOMEWHAT
BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN
THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CAPE AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO
BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND THUS DO NOT EXPECT ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE
CWA...BUT THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY
IN PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE A SURFACE LOW WILL BE
PRESENT. OTHERWISE...CLEARING SKIES WILL WORK INTO NORTHWESTERN
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WITH LACK OF FORCING...MINIMAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
EXPECTED SATURDAY/SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR
THE WEEKEND. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH RIDGE BREAKING DOWN
MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME AND EMBEDDED
TROF/WEAK CLOSED LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 931 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ISOLATED -TSRA ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...WITH LOCAL MVFR VSBY. A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF -TSRA EXPECTED FRI AFTN...WITH LOCAL
MVFR VSBY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...JOHNSON







000
FXUS63 KUNR 010334
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
934 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

A SMALL CLUSTER OF TSTMS JUST EAST OF RAPID CITY CONTINUES TO PUSH
SEWD...WITH RADAR TRENDS SUGGESTING A DECREASE IN THIS ACTIVITY.
ONLY CHANGE TO FCST WAS TO ADD SMALL POPS INTO PARTS OF SWRN SD TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

A RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK
SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS/SUBTLE DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS
RIDGE AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FORCING FOR
UPWARD/DOWNWARD MOTION WILL BE WEAK...AND MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL. THICKNESSES WILL BE STEADY TO SLOWLY RISING
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AS A RESULT...ONLY SMALL CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...MLCAPE OF NEAR 500 J/KG AND LIMITED
FORCING FOR UPWARD MOTION WILL BRING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
BLACK HILLS AND PARTS OF WESTERN SD. ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP
SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY IN THE EVENING...AND WEAK CAPE/SHEAR
INDICATES SEVERE WEATHER WILL NOT OCCUR.

LATER TONIGHT..A SUBTLE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE CWA WITH
WEAK Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE BY 12Z OVER THE WRN CWA. LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL BE FOCUSED OVER NWRN SD AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES TO
NEAR FAR NWRN SD. WITH MUCAPE AROUND 250 J/KG...MAY SEE DEVELOPMENT
OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CWA.

ON FRIDAY...WEAK Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS PROGGED AS THE SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH PROGRESSES ACROSS THE CWA. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE RELATIVE TO TODAY...AND THUS THERE WILL BE A SOMEWHAT
BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN
THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CAPE AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO
BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND THUS DO NOT EXPECT ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE
CWA...BUT THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY
IN PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE A SURFACE LOW WILL BE
PRESENT. OTHERWISE...CLEARING SKIES WILL WORK INTO NORTHWESTERN
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WITH LACK OF FORCING...MINIMAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
EXPECTED SATURDAY/SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR
THE WEEKEND. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH RIDGE BREAKING DOWN
MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME AND EMBEDDED
TROF/WEAK CLOSED LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 931 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ISOLATED -TSRA ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...WITH LOCAL MVFR VSBY. A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF -TSRA EXPECTED FRI AFTN...WITH LOCAL
MVFR VSBY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...JOHNSON







000
FXUS63 KUNR 010334
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
934 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

A SMALL CLUSTER OF TSTMS JUST EAST OF RAPID CITY CONTINUES TO PUSH
SEWD...WITH RADAR TRENDS SUGGESTING A DECREASE IN THIS ACTIVITY.
ONLY CHANGE TO FCST WAS TO ADD SMALL POPS INTO PARTS OF SWRN SD TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

A RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK
SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS/SUBTLE DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS
RIDGE AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FORCING FOR
UPWARD/DOWNWARD MOTION WILL BE WEAK...AND MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL. THICKNESSES WILL BE STEADY TO SLOWLY RISING
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AS A RESULT...ONLY SMALL CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...MLCAPE OF NEAR 500 J/KG AND LIMITED
FORCING FOR UPWARD MOTION WILL BRING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
BLACK HILLS AND PARTS OF WESTERN SD. ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP
SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY IN THE EVENING...AND WEAK CAPE/SHEAR
INDICATES SEVERE WEATHER WILL NOT OCCUR.

LATER TONIGHT..A SUBTLE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE CWA WITH
WEAK Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE BY 12Z OVER THE WRN CWA. LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL BE FOCUSED OVER NWRN SD AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES TO
NEAR FAR NWRN SD. WITH MUCAPE AROUND 250 J/KG...MAY SEE DEVELOPMENT
OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CWA.

ON FRIDAY...WEAK Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS PROGGED AS THE SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH PROGRESSES ACROSS THE CWA. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE RELATIVE TO TODAY...AND THUS THERE WILL BE A SOMEWHAT
BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN
THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CAPE AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO
BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND THUS DO NOT EXPECT ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE
CWA...BUT THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY
IN PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE A SURFACE LOW WILL BE
PRESENT. OTHERWISE...CLEARING SKIES WILL WORK INTO NORTHWESTERN
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WITH LACK OF FORCING...MINIMAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
EXPECTED SATURDAY/SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR
THE WEEKEND. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH RIDGE BREAKING DOWN
MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME AND EMBEDDED
TROF/WEAK CLOSED LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 931 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ISOLATED -TSRA ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...WITH LOCAL MVFR VSBY. A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF -TSRA EXPECTED FRI AFTN...WITH LOCAL
MVFR VSBY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...JOHNSON







000
FXUS63 KUNR 010334
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
934 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

A SMALL CLUSTER OF TSTMS JUST EAST OF RAPID CITY CONTINUES TO PUSH
SEWD...WITH RADAR TRENDS SUGGESTING A DECREASE IN THIS ACTIVITY.
ONLY CHANGE TO FCST WAS TO ADD SMALL POPS INTO PARTS OF SWRN SD TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

A RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK
SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS/SUBTLE DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS
RIDGE AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FORCING FOR
UPWARD/DOWNWARD MOTION WILL BE WEAK...AND MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL. THICKNESSES WILL BE STEADY TO SLOWLY RISING
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AS A RESULT...ONLY SMALL CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...MLCAPE OF NEAR 500 J/KG AND LIMITED
FORCING FOR UPWARD MOTION WILL BRING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
BLACK HILLS AND PARTS OF WESTERN SD. ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP
SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY IN THE EVENING...AND WEAK CAPE/SHEAR
INDICATES SEVERE WEATHER WILL NOT OCCUR.

LATER TONIGHT..A SUBTLE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE CWA WITH
WEAK Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE BY 12Z OVER THE WRN CWA. LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL BE FOCUSED OVER NWRN SD AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES TO
NEAR FAR NWRN SD. WITH MUCAPE AROUND 250 J/KG...MAY SEE DEVELOPMENT
OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CWA.

ON FRIDAY...WEAK Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS PROGGED AS THE SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH PROGRESSES ACROSS THE CWA. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE RELATIVE TO TODAY...AND THUS THERE WILL BE A SOMEWHAT
BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN
THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CAPE AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO
BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND THUS DO NOT EXPECT ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE
CWA...BUT THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY
IN PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE A SURFACE LOW WILL BE
PRESENT. OTHERWISE...CLEARING SKIES WILL WORK INTO NORTHWESTERN
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WITH LACK OF FORCING...MINIMAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
EXPECTED SATURDAY/SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR
THE WEEKEND. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH RIDGE BREAKING DOWN
MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME AND EMBEDDED
TROF/WEAK CLOSED LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 931 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ISOLATED -TSRA ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...WITH LOCAL MVFR VSBY. A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF -TSRA EXPECTED FRI AFTN...WITH LOCAL
MVFR VSBY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...JOHNSON







000
FXUS65 KCYS 010316
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
916 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 912 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

LIGHT WINDS...MILD TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR
TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. FORECAST
RIGHT ON TRACK SO NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW. DRIER AIR HAS PUSHED INTO
THE AREA AS A RESULT WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE FROM EARLIER THIS
WEEK DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO. THERE IS STILL
A SLIGHT CHANCE AT A THUNDER SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT HAVE NOT SEEN TOO MUCH ACTIVITY NORTH OF STEAMBOAT
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON SO THE PROBABILITY FOR THESE THUNDER
SHOWERS APPEAR RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. MAY BE A FEW
READINGS BETWEEN 35 TO 40 DEGREES ACROSS THE LARAMIE VALLEY BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

VERY LITTLE WILL CHANGE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING OVER THE AREA. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO
THE SOUTHEAST WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES ON MODEL
SOUNDINGS. WITH JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY EXPECTED...MAY SEE SOME
LIGHT THUNDER SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHERN
NEBRASKA...BUT THEY SHOULD BE PRETTY ISOLATED OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS. NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH A BIT LESS MOISTURE COMPARED TO
FRIDAY AND INCREASED WARMING/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. KEPT HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL OVER MOST LOCATIONS AND
A FEW DEGREES BELOW MOS...MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS. GUIDANCE TENDS TO HAVE A NOTICEABLE WARM BIAS IN THESE
CASES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MORE EXPOSED RIDGES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY WITH
A SHORTWAVE BEGINNING TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN. EXPECT VERY WARM TEMPS FOR THE
CWA ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE...WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE INITIAL PUSH OF
DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE WILL IMPACT THE CWA ON MONDAY...AND THE GFS SHOWS AN
INITIAL PIECE OF ENERGY SOMEWHAT STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF OR GEM
MODELS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
CWA FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT FOR THIS SCENARIO. IN GENERAL...THE
ECMWF MAINTAINS A MORE COHERENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS SHEARS IT OUT INTO MORE A
STREAM OF MIDLEVEL ENERGY THROUGH THIS TIME. REGARDLESS THE
SOLUTION...PLENTIFUL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
CWA THROUGH THIS TIME WITH PWATS PROGGED TO RANGE FROM THREE-
QUARTERS AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF FROM WEST TO EAST. AS A
RESULT...LOOKING AT A GOOD CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUES-WED. WITH FAIRLY WARM TEMPS PROGGED AS
WELL...LI`S WILL AVERAGE AROUND MINUS 2 OR LESS...WHICH SUGGESTS
THAT CONVECTION COULD BECOME QUITE VIGOROUS AT TIMES. IN
ADDITION...RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS WILL OCCUR AT JET LEVEL...SO
LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN OUT OF THIS ACTIVITY.
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY AND WILL
BRING OVERALL DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE CWA. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUES-THURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 539 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND VFR UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING TUESDAY. COVERAGE WILL BE VERY LIMITED SO AVIATION THREATS
ARE MINIMAL. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...TJT






000
FXUS65 KCYS 010316
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
916 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 912 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

LIGHT WINDS...MILD TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR
TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. FORECAST
RIGHT ON TRACK SO NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW. DRIER AIR HAS PUSHED INTO
THE AREA AS A RESULT WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE FROM EARLIER THIS
WEEK DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO. THERE IS STILL
A SLIGHT CHANCE AT A THUNDER SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT HAVE NOT SEEN TOO MUCH ACTIVITY NORTH OF STEAMBOAT
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON SO THE PROBABILITY FOR THESE THUNDER
SHOWERS APPEAR RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. MAY BE A FEW
READINGS BETWEEN 35 TO 40 DEGREES ACROSS THE LARAMIE VALLEY BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

VERY LITTLE WILL CHANGE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING OVER THE AREA. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO
THE SOUTHEAST WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES ON MODEL
SOUNDINGS. WITH JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY EXPECTED...MAY SEE SOME
LIGHT THUNDER SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHERN
NEBRASKA...BUT THEY SHOULD BE PRETTY ISOLATED OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS. NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH A BIT LESS MOISTURE COMPARED TO
FRIDAY AND INCREASED WARMING/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. KEPT HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL OVER MOST LOCATIONS AND
A FEW DEGREES BELOW MOS...MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS. GUIDANCE TENDS TO HAVE A NOTICEABLE WARM BIAS IN THESE
CASES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MORE EXPOSED RIDGES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY WITH
A SHORTWAVE BEGINNING TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN. EXPECT VERY WARM TEMPS FOR THE
CWA ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE...WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE INITIAL PUSH OF
DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE WILL IMPACT THE CWA ON MONDAY...AND THE GFS SHOWS AN
INITIAL PIECE OF ENERGY SOMEWHAT STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF OR GEM
MODELS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
CWA FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT FOR THIS SCENARIO. IN GENERAL...THE
ECMWF MAINTAINS A MORE COHERENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS SHEARS IT OUT INTO MORE A
STREAM OF MIDLEVEL ENERGY THROUGH THIS TIME. REGARDLESS THE
SOLUTION...PLENTIFUL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
CWA THROUGH THIS TIME WITH PWATS PROGGED TO RANGE FROM THREE-
QUARTERS AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF FROM WEST TO EAST. AS A
RESULT...LOOKING AT A GOOD CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUES-WED. WITH FAIRLY WARM TEMPS PROGGED AS
WELL...LI`S WILL AVERAGE AROUND MINUS 2 OR LESS...WHICH SUGGESTS
THAT CONVECTION COULD BECOME QUITE VIGOROUS AT TIMES. IN
ADDITION...RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS WILL OCCUR AT JET LEVEL...SO
LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN OUT OF THIS ACTIVITY.
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY AND WILL
BRING OVERALL DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE CWA. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUES-THURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 539 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND VFR UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING TUESDAY. COVERAGE WILL BE VERY LIMITED SO AVIATION THREATS
ARE MINIMAL. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...TJT






000
FXUS65 KCYS 010316
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
916 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 912 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

LIGHT WINDS...MILD TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR
TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. FORECAST
RIGHT ON TRACK SO NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW. DRIER AIR HAS PUSHED INTO
THE AREA AS A RESULT WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE FROM EARLIER THIS
WEEK DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO. THERE IS STILL
A SLIGHT CHANCE AT A THUNDER SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT HAVE NOT SEEN TOO MUCH ACTIVITY NORTH OF STEAMBOAT
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON SO THE PROBABILITY FOR THESE THUNDER
SHOWERS APPEAR RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. MAY BE A FEW
READINGS BETWEEN 35 TO 40 DEGREES ACROSS THE LARAMIE VALLEY BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

VERY LITTLE WILL CHANGE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING OVER THE AREA. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO
THE SOUTHEAST WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES ON MODEL
SOUNDINGS. WITH JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY EXPECTED...MAY SEE SOME
LIGHT THUNDER SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHERN
NEBRASKA...BUT THEY SHOULD BE PRETTY ISOLATED OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS. NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH A BIT LESS MOISTURE COMPARED TO
FRIDAY AND INCREASED WARMING/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. KEPT HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL OVER MOST LOCATIONS AND
A FEW DEGREES BELOW MOS...MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS. GUIDANCE TENDS TO HAVE A NOTICEABLE WARM BIAS IN THESE
CASES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MORE EXPOSED RIDGES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY WITH
A SHORTWAVE BEGINNING TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN. EXPECT VERY WARM TEMPS FOR THE
CWA ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE...WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE INITIAL PUSH OF
DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE WILL IMPACT THE CWA ON MONDAY...AND THE GFS SHOWS AN
INITIAL PIECE OF ENERGY SOMEWHAT STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF OR GEM
MODELS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
CWA FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT FOR THIS SCENARIO. IN GENERAL...THE
ECMWF MAINTAINS A MORE COHERENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS SHEARS IT OUT INTO MORE A
STREAM OF MIDLEVEL ENERGY THROUGH THIS TIME. REGARDLESS THE
SOLUTION...PLENTIFUL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
CWA THROUGH THIS TIME WITH PWATS PROGGED TO RANGE FROM THREE-
QUARTERS AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF FROM WEST TO EAST. AS A
RESULT...LOOKING AT A GOOD CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUES-WED. WITH FAIRLY WARM TEMPS PROGGED AS
WELL...LI`S WILL AVERAGE AROUND MINUS 2 OR LESS...WHICH SUGGESTS
THAT CONVECTION COULD BECOME QUITE VIGOROUS AT TIMES. IN
ADDITION...RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS WILL OCCUR AT JET LEVEL...SO
LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN OUT OF THIS ACTIVITY.
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY AND WILL
BRING OVERALL DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE CWA. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUES-THURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 539 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND VFR UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING TUESDAY. COVERAGE WILL BE VERY LIMITED SO AVIATION THREATS
ARE MINIMAL. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...TJT






000
FXUS65 KCYS 010316
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
916 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 912 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

LIGHT WINDS...MILD TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR
TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. FORECAST
RIGHT ON TRACK SO NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW. DRIER AIR HAS PUSHED INTO
THE AREA AS A RESULT WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE FROM EARLIER THIS
WEEK DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO. THERE IS STILL
A SLIGHT CHANCE AT A THUNDER SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT HAVE NOT SEEN TOO MUCH ACTIVITY NORTH OF STEAMBOAT
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON SO THE PROBABILITY FOR THESE THUNDER
SHOWERS APPEAR RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. MAY BE A FEW
READINGS BETWEEN 35 TO 40 DEGREES ACROSS THE LARAMIE VALLEY BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

VERY LITTLE WILL CHANGE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING OVER THE AREA. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO
THE SOUTHEAST WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES ON MODEL
SOUNDINGS. WITH JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY EXPECTED...MAY SEE SOME
LIGHT THUNDER SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHERN
NEBRASKA...BUT THEY SHOULD BE PRETTY ISOLATED OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS. NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH A BIT LESS MOISTURE COMPARED TO
FRIDAY AND INCREASED WARMING/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. KEPT HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL OVER MOST LOCATIONS AND
A FEW DEGREES BELOW MOS...MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS. GUIDANCE TENDS TO HAVE A NOTICEABLE WARM BIAS IN THESE
CASES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MORE EXPOSED RIDGES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY WITH
A SHORTWAVE BEGINNING TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN. EXPECT VERY WARM TEMPS FOR THE
CWA ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE...WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE INITIAL PUSH OF
DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE WILL IMPACT THE CWA ON MONDAY...AND THE GFS SHOWS AN
INITIAL PIECE OF ENERGY SOMEWHAT STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF OR GEM
MODELS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
CWA FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT FOR THIS SCENARIO. IN GENERAL...THE
ECMWF MAINTAINS A MORE COHERENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS SHEARS IT OUT INTO MORE A
STREAM OF MIDLEVEL ENERGY THROUGH THIS TIME. REGARDLESS THE
SOLUTION...PLENTIFUL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
CWA THROUGH THIS TIME WITH PWATS PROGGED TO RANGE FROM THREE-
QUARTERS AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF FROM WEST TO EAST. AS A
RESULT...LOOKING AT A GOOD CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUES-WED. WITH FAIRLY WARM TEMPS PROGGED AS
WELL...LI`S WILL AVERAGE AROUND MINUS 2 OR LESS...WHICH SUGGESTS
THAT CONVECTION COULD BECOME QUITE VIGOROUS AT TIMES. IN
ADDITION...RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS WILL OCCUR AT JET LEVEL...SO
LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN OUT OF THIS ACTIVITY.
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY AND WILL
BRING OVERALL DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE CWA. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUES-THURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 539 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND VFR UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING TUESDAY. COVERAGE WILL BE VERY LIMITED SO AVIATION THREATS
ARE MINIMAL. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...TJT






000
FXUS65 KCYS 312353
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
553 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW. DRIER AIR HAS PUSHED INTO
THE AREA AS A RESULT WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE FROM EARLIER THIS
WEEK DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO. THERE IS STILL
A SLIGHT CHANCE AT A THUNDER SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT HAVE NOT SEEN TOO MUCH ACTIVITY NORTH OF STEAMBOAT
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON SO THE PROBABILITY FOR THESE THUNDER
SHOWERS APPEAR RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. MAY BE A FEW
READINGS BETWEEN 35 TO 40 DEGREES ACROSS THE LARAMIE VALLEY BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

VERY LITTLE WILL CHANGE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING OVER THE AREA. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO
THE SOUTHEAST WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES ON MODEL
SOUNDINGS. WITH JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY EXPECTED...MAY SEE SOME
LIGHT THUNDER SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHERN
NEBRASKA...BUT THEY SHOULD BE PRETTY ISOLATED OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS. NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH A BIT LESS MOISTURE COMPARED TO
FRIDAY AND INCREASED WARMING/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. KEPT HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL OVER MOST LOCATIONS AND
A FEW DEGREES BELOW MOS...MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS. GUIDANCE TENDS TO HAVE A NOTICEABLE WARM BIAS IN THESE
CASES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MORE EXPOSED RIDGES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY WITH
A SHORTWAVE BEGINNING TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN. EXPECT VERY WARM TEMPS FOR THE
CWA ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE...WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE INITIAL PUSH OF
DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE WILL IMPACT THE CWA ON MONDAY...AND THE GFS SHOWS AN
INITIAL PIECE OF ENERGY SOMEWHAT STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF OR GEM
MODELS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
CWA FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT FOR THIS SCENARIO. IN GENERAL...THE
ECMWF MAINTAINS A MORE COHERENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS SHEARS IT OUT INTO MORE A
STREAM OF MIDLEVEL ENERGY THROUGH THIS TIME. REGARDLESS THE
SOLUTION...PLENTIFUL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
CWA THROUGH THIS TIME WITH PWATS PROGGED TO RANGE FROM THREE-
QUARTERS AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF FROM WEST TO EAST. AS A
RESULT...LOOKING AT A GOOD CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUES-WED. WITH FAIRLY WARM TEMPS PROGGED AS
WELL...LI`S WILL AVERAGE AROUND MINUS 2 OR LESS...WHICH SUGGESTS
THAT CONVECTION COULD BECOME QUITE VIGOROUS AT TIMES. IN
ADDITION...RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS WILL OCCUR AT JET LEVEL...SO
LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN OUT OF THIS ACTIVITY.
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY AND WILL
BRING OVERALL DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE CWA. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUES-THURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 539 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND VFR UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING TUESDAY. COVERAGE WILL BE VERY LIMITED SO AVIATION THREATS
ARE MINIMAL. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...TJT






000
FXUS65 KCYS 312353
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
553 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW. DRIER AIR HAS PUSHED INTO
THE AREA AS A RESULT WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE FROM EARLIER THIS
WEEK DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO. THERE IS STILL
A SLIGHT CHANCE AT A THUNDER SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT HAVE NOT SEEN TOO MUCH ACTIVITY NORTH OF STEAMBOAT
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON SO THE PROBABILITY FOR THESE THUNDER
SHOWERS APPEAR RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. MAY BE A FEW
READINGS BETWEEN 35 TO 40 DEGREES ACROSS THE LARAMIE VALLEY BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

VERY LITTLE WILL CHANGE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING OVER THE AREA. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO
THE SOUTHEAST WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES ON MODEL
SOUNDINGS. WITH JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY EXPECTED...MAY SEE SOME
LIGHT THUNDER SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHERN
NEBRASKA...BUT THEY SHOULD BE PRETTY ISOLATED OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS. NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH A BIT LESS MOISTURE COMPARED TO
FRIDAY AND INCREASED WARMING/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. KEPT HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL OVER MOST LOCATIONS AND
A FEW DEGREES BELOW MOS...MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS. GUIDANCE TENDS TO HAVE A NOTICEABLE WARM BIAS IN THESE
CASES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MORE EXPOSED RIDGES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY WITH
A SHORTWAVE BEGINNING TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN. EXPECT VERY WARM TEMPS FOR THE
CWA ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE...WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE INITIAL PUSH OF
DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE WILL IMPACT THE CWA ON MONDAY...AND THE GFS SHOWS AN
INITIAL PIECE OF ENERGY SOMEWHAT STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF OR GEM
MODELS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
CWA FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT FOR THIS SCENARIO. IN GENERAL...THE
ECMWF MAINTAINS A MORE COHERENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS SHEARS IT OUT INTO MORE A
STREAM OF MIDLEVEL ENERGY THROUGH THIS TIME. REGARDLESS THE
SOLUTION...PLENTIFUL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
CWA THROUGH THIS TIME WITH PWATS PROGGED TO RANGE FROM THREE-
QUARTERS AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF FROM WEST TO EAST. AS A
RESULT...LOOKING AT A GOOD CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUES-WED. WITH FAIRLY WARM TEMPS PROGGED AS
WELL...LI`S WILL AVERAGE AROUND MINUS 2 OR LESS...WHICH SUGGESTS
THAT CONVECTION COULD BECOME QUITE VIGOROUS AT TIMES. IN
ADDITION...RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS WILL OCCUR AT JET LEVEL...SO
LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN OUT OF THIS ACTIVITY.
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY AND WILL
BRING OVERALL DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE CWA. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUES-THURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 539 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND VFR UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING TUESDAY. COVERAGE WILL BE VERY LIMITED SO AVIATION THREATS
ARE MINIMAL. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...TJT







000
FXUS63 KUNR 312251
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
451 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

A RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK
SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS/SUBTLE DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS
RIDGE AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FORCING FOR
UPWARD/DOWNWARD MOTION WILL BE WEAK...AND MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL. THICKNESSES WILL BE STEADY TO SLOWLY RISING
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AS A RESULT...ONLY SMALL CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...MLCAPE OF NEAR 500 J/KG AND LIMITED
FORCING FOR UPWARD MOTION WILL BRING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
BLACK HILLS AND PARTS OF WESTERN SD. ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP
SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY IN THE EVENING...AND WEAK CAPE/SHEAR
INDICATES SEVERE WEATHER WILL NOT OCCUR.

LATER TONIGHT..A SUBTLE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE CWA WITH
WEAK Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE BY 12Z OVER THE WRN CWA. LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL BE FOCUSED OVER NWRN SD AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES TO
NEAR FAR NWRN SD. WITH MUCAPE AROUND 250 J/KG...MAY SEE DEVELOPMENT
OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CWA.

ON FRIDAY...WEAK Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS PROGGED AS THE SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH PROGRESSES ACROSS THE CWA. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE RELATIVE TO TODAY...AND THUS THERE WILL BE A SOMEWHAT
BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN
THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CAPE AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO
BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND THUS DO NOT EXPECT ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE
CWA...BUT THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY
IN PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE A SURFACE LOW WILL BE
PRESENT. OTHERWISE...CLEARING SKIES WILL WORK INTO NORTHWESTERN
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WITH LACK OF FORCING...MINIMAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
EXPECTED SATURDAY/SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR
THE WEEKEND. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH RIDGE BREAKING DOWN
MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME AND EMBEDDED
TROF/WEAK CLOSED LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 449 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ISOLATED -TSRA ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...WITH LOCAL MVFR VSBY. A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF -TSRA EXPECTED FRI AFTN...WITH LOCAL
MVFR VSBY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...JOHNSON








000
FXUS65 KCYS 312136
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
336 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW. DRIER AIR HAS PUSHED INTO
THE AREA AS A RESULT WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE FROM EARLIER THIS
WEEK DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO. THERE IS STILL
A SLIGHT CHANCE AT A THUNDER SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT HAVE NOT SEEN TOO MUCH ACTIVITY NORTH OF STEAMBOAT
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON SO THE PROBABILITY FOR THESE THUNDER
SHOWERS APPEAR RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. MAY BE A FEW
READINGS BETWEEN 35 TO 40 DEGREES ACROSS THE LARAMIE VALLEY BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

VERY LITTLE WILL CHANGE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING OVER THE AREA. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO
THE SOUTHEAST WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES ON MODEL
SOUNDINGS. WITH JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY EXPECTED...MAY SEE SOME
LIGHT THUNDER SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHERN
NEBRASKA...BUT THEY SHOULD BE PRETTY ISOLATED OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS. NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH A BIT LESS MOISTURE COMPARED TO
FRIDAY AND INCREASED WARMING/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. KEPT HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL OVER MOST LOCATIONS AND
A FEW DEGREES BELOW MOS...MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS. GUIDANCE TENDS TO HAVE A NOTICEABLE WARM BIAS IN THESE
CASES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MORE EXPOSED RIDGES.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY WITH
A SHORTWAVE BEGINNING TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN. EXPECT VERY WARM TEMPS FOR THE
CWA ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE...WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE INITIAL PUSH OF
DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE WILL IMPACT THE CWA ON MONDAY...AND THE GFS SHOWS AN
INITIAL PIECE OF ENERGY SOMEWHAT STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF OR GEM
MODELS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
CWA FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT FOR THIS SCENARIO. IN GENERAL...THE
ECMWF MAINTAINS A MORE COHERENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS SHEARS IT OUT INTO MORE A
STREAM OF MIDLEVEL ENERGY THROUGH THIS TIME. REGARDLESS THE
SOLUTION...PLENTIFUL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
CWA THROUGH THIS TIME WITH PWATS PROGGED TO RANGE FROM THREE-
QUARTERS AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF FROM WEST TO EAST. AS A
RESULT...LOOKING AT A GOOD CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUES-WED. WITH FAIRLY WARM TEMPS PROGGED AS
WELL...LI`S WILL AVERAGE AROUND MINUS 2 OR LESS...WHICH SUGGESTS
THAT CONVECTION COULD BECOME QUITE VIGOROUS AT TIMES. IN
ADDITION...RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS WILL OCCUR AT JET LEVEL...SO
LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN OUT OF THIS ACTIVITY.
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY AND WILL
BRING OVERALL DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE CWA. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUES-THURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER RELATIVELY DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF CARBON COUNTY WHERE GUSTS TO 20 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...TJT








000
FXUS65 KCYS 312136
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
336 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW. DRIER AIR HAS PUSHED INTO
THE AREA AS A RESULT WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE FROM EARLIER THIS
WEEK DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO. THERE IS STILL
A SLIGHT CHANCE AT A THUNDER SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT HAVE NOT SEEN TOO MUCH ACTIVITY NORTH OF STEAMBOAT
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON SO THE PROBABILITY FOR THESE THUNDER
SHOWERS APPEAR RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. MAY BE A FEW
READINGS BETWEEN 35 TO 40 DEGREES ACROSS THE LARAMIE VALLEY BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

VERY LITTLE WILL CHANGE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING OVER THE AREA. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO
THE SOUTHEAST WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES ON MODEL
SOUNDINGS. WITH JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY EXPECTED...MAY SEE SOME
LIGHT THUNDER SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHERN
NEBRASKA...BUT THEY SHOULD BE PRETTY ISOLATED OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS. NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH A BIT LESS MOISTURE COMPARED TO
FRIDAY AND INCREASED WARMING/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. KEPT HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL OVER MOST LOCATIONS AND
A FEW DEGREES BELOW MOS...MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS. GUIDANCE TENDS TO HAVE A NOTICEABLE WARM BIAS IN THESE
CASES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MORE EXPOSED RIDGES.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY WITH
A SHORTWAVE BEGINNING TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN. EXPECT VERY WARM TEMPS FOR THE
CWA ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE...WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE INITIAL PUSH OF
DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE WILL IMPACT THE CWA ON MONDAY...AND THE GFS SHOWS AN
INITIAL PIECE OF ENERGY SOMEWHAT STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF OR GEM
MODELS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
CWA FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT FOR THIS SCENARIO. IN GENERAL...THE
ECMWF MAINTAINS A MORE COHERENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS SHEARS IT OUT INTO MORE A
STREAM OF MIDLEVEL ENERGY THROUGH THIS TIME. REGARDLESS THE
SOLUTION...PLENTIFUL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
CWA THROUGH THIS TIME WITH PWATS PROGGED TO RANGE FROM THREE-
QUARTERS AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF FROM WEST TO EAST. AS A
RESULT...LOOKING AT A GOOD CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUES-WED. WITH FAIRLY WARM TEMPS PROGGED AS
WELL...LI`S WILL AVERAGE AROUND MINUS 2 OR LESS...WHICH SUGGESTS
THAT CONVECTION COULD BECOME QUITE VIGOROUS AT TIMES. IN
ADDITION...RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS WILL OCCUR AT JET LEVEL...SO
LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN OUT OF THIS ACTIVITY.
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY AND WILL
BRING OVERALL DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE CWA. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUES-THURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER RELATIVELY DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF CARBON COUNTY WHERE GUSTS TO 20 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...TJT









000
FXUS63 KUNR 312018
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
218 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

A RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK
SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS/SUBTLE DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS
RIDGE AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FORCING FOR
UPWARD/DOWNWARD MOTION WILL BE WEAK...AND MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL. THICKNESSES WILL BE STEADY TO SLOWLY RISING
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AS A RESULT...ONLY SMALL CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...MLCAPE OF NEAR 500 J/KG AND LIMITED
FORCING FOR UPWARD MOTION WILL BRING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
BLACK HILLS AND PARTS OF WESTERN SD. ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP
SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY IN THE EVENING...AND WEAK CAPE/SHEAR
INDICATES SEVERE WEATHER WILL NOT OCCUR.

LATER TONIGHT..A SUBTLE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE CWA WITH
WEAK Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE BY 12Z OVER THE WRN CWA. LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL BE FOCUSED OVER NWRN SD AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES TO
NEAR FAR NWRN SD. WITH MUCAPE AROUND 250 J/KG...MAY SEE DEVELOPMENT
OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CWA.

ON FRIDAY...WEAK Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS PROGGED AS THE SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH PROGRESSES ACROSS THE CWA. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE RELATIVE TO TODAY...AND THUS THERE WILL BE A SOMEWHAT
BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN
THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CAPE AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO
BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND THUS DO NOT EXPECT ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE
CWA...BUT THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY
IN PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE A SURFACE LOW WILL BE
PRESENT. OTHERWISE...CLEARING SKIES WILL WORK INTO NORTHWESTERN
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WITH LACK OF FORCING...MINIMAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
EXPECTED SATURDAY/SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR
THE WEEKEND. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH RIDGE BREAKING DOWN
MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME AND EMBEDDED
TROF/WEAK CLOSED LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
-TSRA ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN SD...WITH
LOCAL MVFR VSBY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7





000
FXUS63 KUNR 312018
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
218 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

A RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK
SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS/SUBTLE DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS
RIDGE AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FORCING FOR
UPWARD/DOWNWARD MOTION WILL BE WEAK...AND MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL. THICKNESSES WILL BE STEADY TO SLOWLY RISING
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AS A RESULT...ONLY SMALL CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...MLCAPE OF NEAR 500 J/KG AND LIMITED
FORCING FOR UPWARD MOTION WILL BRING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
BLACK HILLS AND PARTS OF WESTERN SD. ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP
SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY IN THE EVENING...AND WEAK CAPE/SHEAR
INDICATES SEVERE WEATHER WILL NOT OCCUR.

LATER TONIGHT..A SUBTLE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE CWA WITH
WEAK Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE BY 12Z OVER THE WRN CWA. LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL BE FOCUSED OVER NWRN SD AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES TO
NEAR FAR NWRN SD. WITH MUCAPE AROUND 250 J/KG...MAY SEE DEVELOPMENT
OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CWA.

ON FRIDAY...WEAK Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS PROGGED AS THE SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH PROGRESSES ACROSS THE CWA. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE RELATIVE TO TODAY...AND THUS THERE WILL BE A SOMEWHAT
BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN
THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CAPE AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO
BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND THUS DO NOT EXPECT ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE
CWA...BUT THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY
IN PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE A SURFACE LOW WILL BE
PRESENT. OTHERWISE...CLEARING SKIES WILL WORK INTO NORTHWESTERN
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WITH LACK OF FORCING...MINIMAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
EXPECTED SATURDAY/SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR
THE WEEKEND. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH RIDGE BREAKING DOWN
MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME AND EMBEDDED
TROF/WEAK CLOSED LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
-TSRA ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN SD...WITH
LOCAL MVFR VSBY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7




000
FXUS65 KRIW 312011
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
211 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

WV IMAGERY SHOWING UPR RIDGE JUST TO THE W WITH N/S AXIS STRETCHING
FROM THE NRN ROCKIES THRU THE GREAT BASIN...AND LARGE TROF/CLOSED
SYSTEM ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. WY IS STUCK UNDER WEAK NW
FLOW...WITH A WEAK UPR DISTURBANCE HEADED INTO THE STATE FROM THE
W/SW WITH ITS AXIS LOCATED FROM CNTRL ID TO SWRN WY. AT THE
SFC...RATHER DIFFUSE 1020ISH HIGH PRESS IS PRESENT OVER MOST OF THE
STATE...WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO THE N IN ERN MT.

TODAY/TONIGHT...WITHOUT SFC BOUNDARIES/FORCING AROUND FOR THE
MOST PART...THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION AND ACTION...WITH LITTLE CONVECTIVE ELSEWHERE OR VERY FAR
AWAY FROM THE MOUNTAINS. WITH WEAK UPR LVL FLOW...STORM MOTION WILL
BE VARIABLE OR TERRAIN TIED...WITH STORMS THAT TRY TO MOVE
PERPENDICULAR TO THE RIDGE LINE NOT REALLY GOING ANYWHERE. THOSE IN
THE WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS MAY SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE RANGE
AS UPR FLOW IN MORE ORIENTED FROM NW TO SE. THE BROAD NATURE OF THIS
LITTLE DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA OVR THE CNTRL
AND ERN MOUNTAINS WELL INTO THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT...BUT
WILL LIKELY END THIS EVENING OVR THE WRN MOUNTAINS.

FRI...WEAK UPR LVLS CONTINUE WITH A WEAK RIDGE TOPPING SW...NOW
LOCATED JUST N OF THE NW MT BORDER AREA...MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE
NRN CWA THRU THE MORNING...PUSHING THE ERN MT SFC LOW AND FRONT WITH
IT TO THE S/SE. MONSOONAL MOISTURE NOT REALLY A FACTOR FRI...AS IT
WILL BECOME AGAIN THRU THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...WHILE THE MOUNTAINS WILL
SEE THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION THIS DAY...THE ADDITION OF THE
WEAK LOW/FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA WILL ALSO PROVIDE FOR A LITTLE
LLVL FORCING ELSEWHERE....MAINLY FROM NATRONA TO THE SW AND THROUGH
SWEETWATER COUNTIES BY FRI AFTERNOON...AND PRIMARILY OVR NEAR HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THOSE AREAS...SUCH AS CASPER MOUNTAIN...THE GREEN AND
RATTLESNAKE MOUNTAINS...ETC. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THIS AREA SHOULD GIVE AT LEAST LOW END CHCS FOR LIGHT
PRECIP TO FALL ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OF FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA. AGAIN...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS ALTHOUGH A FEW MAY DRIFT INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

BY FRIDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE MODELS
ARE SPLIT ON COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WITH THE NAM AND EUROPEAN
LOOKING A BIT WETTER WHILE THE GFS IS DRIER FOR NOW. WE BLENDED
CONTINUITY AND THE NEW RUNS WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER POPS. HOWEVER...IT
STILL APPEARS THAT A VAST MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE HIGH ELEVATION HEAT SOURCE.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM BUT ONLY BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS.

AS FOR THE WEEKEND...BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK LIKE MORE OF THE
SAME AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE SAME WEAK HIGH PRESSURE/DIRT RIDGE
SITUATION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES
WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION AROUND EACH
DAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN. HOWEVER...EVEN THERE IT LOOKS AS THOUGH A MAJORITY OF EACH
DAY LOOKS TO BE RAIN FREE.

THIS PATTERN THEN LOOKS TO SHIFT THOUGH AS WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT IN BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF
DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST.
THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO THE EXACT TIMING OF THE
ARRIVAL OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE. CONTINUITY LOOKED TO HAVE A FAIRLY
GOOD HANDLE ON IT AND AS A RESULT WE MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION. AT THIS POINT...IT COULD BE MORE OF A
SITUATION LIKE LAST TUESDAY WITH A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND ALONG WITH
MORE SHOWERS THAN THUNDERSTORMS. SO WE WENT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST AREAS. THE OTHER CONCERN IS
TEMPERATURES ON THOSE DAYS AS CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING.
IT IS TOO FAR OUT RIGHT NOW TO SAY HIGHS MAY STAY IN THE 60S IN SOME
AREAS. WE DID...HOWEVER...KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW THE MOS
GUIDANCE. THERE ARE ALSO DIFFERENCES AS TO HOW QUICK THE MOISTURE
MOVES OUT ON WEDNESDAY. ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE DIFFERENCES WE HAVE
MADE FEW CHANGES WITH CONTINUITY. BY THURSDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND THE
EUROPEAN MODELS SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE MOVING SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA. AS A RESULT...WE SHOULD RETURN TO THE DIRTY RIDGE PATTERN
OF MAINLY DIURNAL HIGH ELEVATION HEAT SOURCE CONVECTION WITH NEAR
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...KCPR/KRIW/KLND/KWRL/KCOD

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR FROM UNTIL 04Z TONIGHT IN THE
ABSAROKA...WIND RIVER AND BIG HORN MOUNTAINS. LITTLE IF ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DIRECTLY EFFECT THE  LOWER ELEVATIONS OR TERMINAL
SITES...HOWEVER KCOD WILL CARRY VCTS UNTIL 03Z. A FEW SHOWERS WILL
LINGER OVER THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS TILL 08Z FRIDAY. BY 18Z
FRIDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN OVER THE AREAS MOUNTAINS AND ALSO ALONG/NEAR A SURFACE
BOUNDARY. KCPR WILL CARRY VCTS FROM 19Z THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST.

WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...KJAC/KBPI/KPNA/KRKS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR UNTIL 04Z TONIGHT IN THE
MOUNTAINS. LITTLE IF ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIRECTLY EFFECT THE
TERMINAL SITES OR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS EXCEPT AN ISOLATED VALLEY OR
TWO. WILL CARRY VCTS/SH FOR KJAC AND KPNA UNTIL 05/03Z RESPECTIVELY.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL 05Z FRIDAY. BY
20Z FRIDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN OVER THE AREAS MOUNTAINS AND ALSO ALONG/NEAR A
SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE PRESENT IN SWEETWATER COUNTY. ALL
TERMINALS WILL CARRY VCTS/SH FROM 21Z THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL BRING ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND A FEW
ADJACENT VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH EVENING. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONABLE BUT ON THE COOL SIDE WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES RANGE
FROM 20 TO 40 PERCENT FOR MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE BIG HORN BASIN
WHICH COULD SEE RH VALUES AS LOW A 15 PERCENT IN PLACES. LITTLE WIND
IS EXPECTED HOWEVER. FRIDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
PARKED OVER THE ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO
PUSH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ONCE AGAIN OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
REGION...WITH SMALLER CHANCES OVER AND NEAR THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD
LAY FROM NATRONA TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THROUGH SWEETWATER COUNTY BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES OVER
THOSE OF TODAY...HOWEVER MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOUT THE
SAME AND WIND WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
START A RETURN...BRINGING LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY...THEN ALL MOUNTAINS AND A FEW LOWER
ELEVATIONS ON SUNDAY. MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BOTH COOL OFF AND
INCREASE MOISTURE WITH MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WINDS MAY PICK UP A BIT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAUN
LONG TERM...HATTINGS
AVIATION...BRAUN
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN






000
FXUS65 KCYS 311821
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1221 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

CURRENT SATELLITE PIX SHOW BACK END OF CLOUD CANOPY NEARING THE
WY/NE STATELINE AT 09Z. AT ITS CURRENT PACE IT WILL BE EAST OF THE
CWA BY SUNRISE...RESULTING IN A MOSTLY SUNNY START TO THE DAY FOR
MOST PLACES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS HOVER BETWEEN
1-3F AND WINDS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT. ANY FOG THAT IS ABLE TO
DEVELOP THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF BY MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT A DRY DAY AHEAD AS THE BEST MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME HAS
BEEN SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT THERE MAY
BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH
AT THIS POINT. ANY CONVECTION THAT MIGHT DEVELOP WILL BE WEAK AND
PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO COLORADO SHORTLY AFTER DEVELOPMENT.

LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS AGAIN FOR FRIDAY. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR FRIDAY AS PROGD PWATS CLIMB A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. TO VARYING DEGREES...00Z MODEL DATA TRACKS
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE NAM EVEN DROPS A WEAK ATTENDANT SFC BOUNDARY INTO NRN AND WRN
ZONES. SO DID KEEP SMALL CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND ALONG THE
PINE RIDGE FOR FRIDAY. SBCAPES ARE STILL ONLY 200-500 J/KG WHICH
WILL HOLD CONVECTION STRENGTH DOWN.

RIDGE AXIS BUILDS NORTH TOWARDS THE CWFA FOR SATURDAY. PWATS ARE
PROGD TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS ON SATURDAY AND WITH WARMING MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
AGAIN. DID MAINTAIN SOME SMALL CHANCES GOING FOR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...WHICH SHOULD BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME.

A WARMING TEMPERATURE TREND WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD AS THE
RIDGE AXIS AND ASSOCIATED LLVL THERMAL RIDGE AMPLIFIES. TODAY WILL
BE THE COOLEST DAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 70S FOR LOCATIONS
ABOVE 4500 FEET AND 80S BELOW. THE 80 DEGREE ISOTHERM CLIMBS TO
AROUND 5000 FEET FOR FRIDAY AND 5500 FEET FOR SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY AS MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. MOISTURE
WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AS A WEAK UPPER
LOW/TROF LIFTS OUT OF THE DESERT SW AND PHASES WITH A WEAK UPPER
TROF OVER THE PACIFIC NW. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA
TUESDAY INTO WEDS BRINGING AT LEAST SCTD SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS
TO MUCH OF THE CWA. DRIER WEATHER TO RETURN THURSDAY BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WITH TEMPS REMAINING CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER RELATIVELY DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF CARBON COUNTY WHERE GUSTS TO 20 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SEEN AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS.
THERE WILL BE SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER/
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY IN PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT ALONG
AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE 80 DEGREE TEMPERATURE LINE REACHING
AROUND 6000 FEET FOR THE WEEKEND. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES SHOULD FALL
INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND FURTHER
MITIGATING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION RETURNS TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAHN
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...HAHN






000
FXUS65 KCYS 311821
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1221 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

CURRENT SATELLITE PIX SHOW BACK END OF CLOUD CANOPY NEARING THE
WY/NE STATELINE AT 09Z. AT ITS CURRENT PACE IT WILL BE EAST OF THE
CWA BY SUNRISE...RESULTING IN A MOSTLY SUNNY START TO THE DAY FOR
MOST PLACES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS HOVER BETWEEN
1-3F AND WINDS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT. ANY FOG THAT IS ABLE TO
DEVELOP THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF BY MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT A DRY DAY AHEAD AS THE BEST MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME HAS
BEEN SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT THERE MAY
BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH
AT THIS POINT. ANY CONVECTION THAT MIGHT DEVELOP WILL BE WEAK AND
PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO COLORADO SHORTLY AFTER DEVELOPMENT.

LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS AGAIN FOR FRIDAY. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR FRIDAY AS PROGD PWATS CLIMB A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. TO VARYING DEGREES...00Z MODEL DATA TRACKS
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE NAM EVEN DROPS A WEAK ATTENDANT SFC BOUNDARY INTO NRN AND WRN
ZONES. SO DID KEEP SMALL CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND ALONG THE
PINE RIDGE FOR FRIDAY. SBCAPES ARE STILL ONLY 200-500 J/KG WHICH
WILL HOLD CONVECTION STRENGTH DOWN.

RIDGE AXIS BUILDS NORTH TOWARDS THE CWFA FOR SATURDAY. PWATS ARE
PROGD TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS ON SATURDAY AND WITH WARMING MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
AGAIN. DID MAINTAIN SOME SMALL CHANCES GOING FOR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...WHICH SHOULD BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME.

A WARMING TEMPERATURE TREND WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD AS THE
RIDGE AXIS AND ASSOCIATED LLVL THERMAL RIDGE AMPLIFIES. TODAY WILL
BE THE COOLEST DAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 70S FOR LOCATIONS
ABOVE 4500 FEET AND 80S BELOW. THE 80 DEGREE ISOTHERM CLIMBS TO
AROUND 5000 FEET FOR FRIDAY AND 5500 FEET FOR SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY AS MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. MOISTURE
WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AS A WEAK UPPER
LOW/TROF LIFTS OUT OF THE DESERT SW AND PHASES WITH A WEAK UPPER
TROF OVER THE PACIFIC NW. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA
TUESDAY INTO WEDS BRINGING AT LEAST SCTD SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS
TO MUCH OF THE CWA. DRIER WEATHER TO RETURN THURSDAY BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WITH TEMPS REMAINING CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER RELATIVELY DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF CARBON COUNTY WHERE GUSTS TO 20 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SEEN AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS.
THERE WILL BE SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER/
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY IN PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT ALONG
AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE 80 DEGREE TEMPERATURE LINE REACHING
AROUND 6000 FEET FOR THE WEEKEND. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES SHOULD FALL
INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND FURTHER
MITIGATING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION RETURNS TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAHN
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...HAHN







000
FXUS63 KUNR 311713
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1113 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD WITH GRADUALLY WARMING SFC
TEMPERATURES. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE RIDGE
WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND WEAK MID/UPPER CAA TO
DECREASE STABILITY AND PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AND OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY AFTN/EVE. DUE TO RELATIVELY LOW
CAPE VALUES AND WEAK SHEAR PROFILES SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN
BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE SUNDAY...AND BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
STORMS INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES OVERALL
WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH MONDAY...THEN COOLER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIP THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1112 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
-TSRA ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER WESTERN SD...MAINLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH LOCAL MVFR VSBY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...CARPENTER
AVIATION...7







000
FXUS63 KUNR 311713
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1113 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD WITH GRADUALLY WARMING SFC
TEMPERATURES. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE RIDGE
WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND WEAK MID/UPPER CAA TO
DECREASE STABILITY AND PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AND OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY AFTN/EVE. DUE TO RELATIVELY LOW
CAPE VALUES AND WEAK SHEAR PROFILES SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN
BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE SUNDAY...AND BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
STORMS INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES OVERALL
WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH MONDAY...THEN COOLER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIP THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1112 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
-TSRA ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER WESTERN SD...MAINLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH LOCAL MVFR VSBY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...CARPENTER
AVIATION...7






000
FXUS65 KRIW 311710
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1110 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

KEPT FOG IN THIS MORNINGS FORECAST IN SOUTHERN WY WHERE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL OF UP TO AN INCH FELL IN PORTIONS OF LINCOLN COUNTY IN
SOUTHWEST WY WED. SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL OCCUR IN
WESTERN WY AND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY
AS TEMPERATURES RECOVER CLOSER TO NORMAL THANKS TO MORE AMPLE
SUNSHINE WITH LESS HIGH AND MIDDLE CLOUDINESS AROUND. ON FRIDAY
EXPECT EVEN BETTER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE RIDING UP AND OVER THE PARKED RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS
FEATURE WILL SPIN A WEAK CLOSED OFF LOW OVER IDAHO AND THAT WILL
PROPAGATE EAST TO CENTRAL WY BY FRIDAY NIGHT ACDG TO THE GFS. THE H7
CIRCULATION WILL TRACK JUST TO OUR SOUTH OVER CO. SATURDAY WILL ALSO
FEATURE ANOTHER DECENT ROUND OF MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
MOISTURE STREAM ASCT WITH THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL EASTERLY
WAVE...WHICH WILL THEN BE OVER NEVADA WITH A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING
EAST FROM IT INTO WYOMING...BISECTS A SFC LEE SIDE TROUGH.  HIGH
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE AN UPWARD CLIMB THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN THE HEAT AROUND THE WEST SIDE
OF THE RIDGE.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

RIDGE AXIS IS STILL EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST OF US EARLY
NEXT WEEK OPENING THE DOOR TO A SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTH. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH THAT ORIGINATE AS ELY WAVES UNDERNEATH
OUR 4-CORNERS HIGH. THE ECMWF AND GEM KEEP THE LARGER OF THE
DISTURBANCES SOUTH OF US MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHILE THE GFS TAKES
THE MAIN DISTURBANCE/CIRCULATION ACROSS US LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. EITHER WAY THEY ALL SHOW A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH POTENTIAL
DISTURBANCES/CIRCULATIONS. THE FORECAST WEAK FLOW AND PW`S OVER AN
INCH IN MANY AREAS WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN
MONDAY AND OR TUESDAY SIMILAR TO OUR EPISODE THIS WEEK. A DRIER NW
FLOW DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. NORMALLY THIS COULD BE A
FAVORABLE THUNDERSTORM PATTERN BUT WITH OUT A SURFACE HIGH TO THE
N OR NE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY SUSTAINED MOIST ELY FLOW EAST OF
THE DIVIDE. WILL KEEP MOST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING POPS TO
MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS. THE GFS DOES HAVE SOME ENERGY IN THE NW FLOW
WEDNESDAY YET SO WILL KEEP OUR ISOLD LOWER ELEVATION POPS FOR NOW.
MAINLY MOUNTAIN CHANCES BY THURSDAY. SUNDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
HOTTEST DAY WITH H7 TEMPERATURES PUSHING 15C MEANING UPPER 80S TO
SOME 90S EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WEST WITH
65 TO NEAR 80 MOUNTAINS. COOLER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH RAIN
POTENTIAL...HIGHER DEW POINTS AND CLOUD COVER. WARMING AGAIN
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...KCPR/KRIW/KLND/KWRL/KCOD

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR FROM 18Z UNTIL 04Z FRIDAY
IN THE ABSAROKA...WIND RIVER AND BIG HORN MOUNTAINS. LITTLE IF ANY
OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIRECTLY EFFECT THE  LOWER ELEVATIONS OR
TERMINAL SITES...HOWEVER KCOD WILL CARRY VCTS TIL 03Z AS IT
WILL BE CLOSE. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS
TILL 08Z FRIDAY.

WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...KJAC/KBPI/KPNA/KRKS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR FROM 18Z UNTIL 04Z FRIDAY IN
THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. LITTLE IF ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIRECTLY
EFFECT THE TERMINAL SITES OR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS EXCEPT AN
ISOLATED VALLEY OR TWO. WILL CARRY VCTS/SH FOR KJAC AND KPNA TIL
05/03Z RESPECTIVELY AS IT WILL BE CLOSE. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER
OVER THE MOUNTAINS TILL 05Z FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL BRING ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A MORE PROMINENT UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE UP AND OVER THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
PARKED OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY WITH THE MOST NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED
OVER WESTERN WY AS FAR EAST AS THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE CENTRAL
BASINS. ANOTHER SLUG OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL...AGAIN...BRING
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RECOVER DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK BUT WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...JB
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON














000
FXUS65 KRIW 311710
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1110 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

KEPT FOG IN THIS MORNINGS FORECAST IN SOUTHERN WY WHERE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL OF UP TO AN INCH FELL IN PORTIONS OF LINCOLN COUNTY IN
SOUTHWEST WY WED. SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL OCCUR IN
WESTERN WY AND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY
AS TEMPERATURES RECOVER CLOSER TO NORMAL THANKS TO MORE AMPLE
SUNSHINE WITH LESS HIGH AND MIDDLE CLOUDINESS AROUND. ON FRIDAY
EXPECT EVEN BETTER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE RIDING UP AND OVER THE PARKED RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS
FEATURE WILL SPIN A WEAK CLOSED OFF LOW OVER IDAHO AND THAT WILL
PROPAGATE EAST TO CENTRAL WY BY FRIDAY NIGHT ACDG TO THE GFS. THE H7
CIRCULATION WILL TRACK JUST TO OUR SOUTH OVER CO. SATURDAY WILL ALSO
FEATURE ANOTHER DECENT ROUND OF MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
MOISTURE STREAM ASCT WITH THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL EASTERLY
WAVE...WHICH WILL THEN BE OVER NEVADA WITH A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING
EAST FROM IT INTO WYOMING...BISECTS A SFC LEE SIDE TROUGH.  HIGH
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE AN UPWARD CLIMB THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN THE HEAT AROUND THE WEST SIDE
OF THE RIDGE.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

RIDGE AXIS IS STILL EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST OF US EARLY
NEXT WEEK OPENING THE DOOR TO A SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTH. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH THAT ORIGINATE AS ELY WAVES UNDERNEATH
OUR 4-CORNERS HIGH. THE ECMWF AND GEM KEEP THE LARGER OF THE
DISTURBANCES SOUTH OF US MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHILE THE GFS TAKES
THE MAIN DISTURBANCE/CIRCULATION ACROSS US LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. EITHER WAY THEY ALL SHOW A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH POTENTIAL
DISTURBANCES/CIRCULATIONS. THE FORECAST WEAK FLOW AND PW`S OVER AN
INCH IN MANY AREAS WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN
MONDAY AND OR TUESDAY SIMILAR TO OUR EPISODE THIS WEEK. A DRIER NW
FLOW DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. NORMALLY THIS COULD BE A
FAVORABLE THUNDERSTORM PATTERN BUT WITH OUT A SURFACE HIGH TO THE
N OR NE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY SUSTAINED MOIST ELY FLOW EAST OF
THE DIVIDE. WILL KEEP MOST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING POPS TO
MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS. THE GFS DOES HAVE SOME ENERGY IN THE NW FLOW
WEDNESDAY YET SO WILL KEEP OUR ISOLD LOWER ELEVATION POPS FOR NOW.
MAINLY MOUNTAIN CHANCES BY THURSDAY. SUNDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
HOTTEST DAY WITH H7 TEMPERATURES PUSHING 15C MEANING UPPER 80S TO
SOME 90S EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WEST WITH
65 TO NEAR 80 MOUNTAINS. COOLER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH RAIN
POTENTIAL...HIGHER DEW POINTS AND CLOUD COVER. WARMING AGAIN
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...KCPR/KRIW/KLND/KWRL/KCOD

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR FROM 18Z UNTIL 04Z FRIDAY
IN THE ABSAROKA...WIND RIVER AND BIG HORN MOUNTAINS. LITTLE IF ANY
OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIRECTLY EFFECT THE  LOWER ELEVATIONS OR
TERMINAL SITES...HOWEVER KCOD WILL CARRY VCTS TIL 03Z AS IT
WILL BE CLOSE. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS
TILL 08Z FRIDAY.

WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...KJAC/KBPI/KPNA/KRKS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR FROM 18Z UNTIL 04Z FRIDAY IN
THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. LITTLE IF ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIRECTLY
EFFECT THE TERMINAL SITES OR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS EXCEPT AN
ISOLATED VALLEY OR TWO. WILL CARRY VCTS/SH FOR KJAC AND KPNA TIL
05/03Z RESPECTIVELY AS IT WILL BE CLOSE. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER
OVER THE MOUNTAINS TILL 05Z FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL BRING ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A MORE PROMINENT UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE UP AND OVER THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
PARKED OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY WITH THE MOST NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED
OVER WESTERN WY AS FAR EAST AS THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE CENTRAL
BASINS. ANOTHER SLUG OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL...AGAIN...BRING
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RECOVER DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK BUT WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...JB
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON















000
FXUS63 KUNR 311117
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
517 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD WITH GRADUALLY WARMING SFC
TEMPERATURES. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE RIDGE
WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND WEAK MID/UPPER CAA TO
DECREASE STABILITY AND PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AND OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY AFTN/EVE. DUE TO RELATIVELY LOW
CAPE VALUES AND WEAK SHEAR PROFILES SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN
BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE SUNDAY...AND BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
STORMS INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES OVERALL
WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH MONDAY...THEN COOLER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIP THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 516 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
-TSRA ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER WESTERN SD...MAINLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS UNDER THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...CARPENTER
AVIATION...CARPENTER






000
FXUS63 KUNR 311117
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
517 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD WITH GRADUALLY WARMING SFC
TEMPERATURES. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE RIDGE
WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND WEAK MID/UPPER CAA TO
DECREASE STABILITY AND PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AND OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY AFTN/EVE. DUE TO RELATIVELY LOW
CAPE VALUES AND WEAK SHEAR PROFILES SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN
BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE SUNDAY...AND BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
STORMS INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES OVERALL
WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH MONDAY...THEN COOLER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIP THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 516 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
-TSRA ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER WESTERN SD...MAINLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS UNDER THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...CARPENTER
AVIATION...CARPENTER







000
FXUS65 KCYS 310945
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
345 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

CURRENT SATELLITE PIX SHOW BACK END OF CLOUD CANOPY NEARING THE
WY/NE STATELINE AT 09Z. AT ITS CURRENT PACE IT WILL BE EAST OF THE
CWA BY SUNRISE...RESULTING IN A MOSTLY SUNNY START TO THE DAY FOR
MOST PLACES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS HOVER BETWEEN
1-3F AND WINDS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT. ANY FOG THAT IS ABLE TO
DEVELOP THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF BY MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT A DRY DAY AHEAD AS THE BEST MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME HAS
BEEN SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT THERE MAY
BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH
AT THIS POINT. ANY CONVECTION THAT MIGHT DEVELOP WILL BE WEAK AND
PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO COLORADO SHORTLY AFTER DEVELOPMENT.

LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS AGAIN FOR FRIDAY. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR FRIDAY AS PROGD PWATS CLIMB A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. TO VARYING DEGREES...00Z MODEL DATA TRACKS
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE NAM EVEN DROPS A WEAK ATTENDANT SFC BOUNDARY INTO NRN AND WRN
ZONES. SO DID KEEP SMALL CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND ALONG THE
PINE RIDGE FOR FRIDAY. SBCAPES ARE STILL ONLY 200-500 J/KG WHICH
WILL HOLD CONVECTION STRENGTH DOWN.

RIDGE AXIS BUILDS NORTH TOWARDS THE CWFA FOR SATURDAY. PWATS ARE
PROGD TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS ON SATURDAY AND WITH WARMING MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
AGAIN. DID MAINTAIN SOME SMALL CHANCES GOING FOR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...WHICH SHOULD BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME.

A WARMING TEMPERATURE TREND WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD AS THE
RIDGE AXIS AND ASSOCIATED LLVL THERMAL RIDGE AMPLIFIES. TODAY WILL
BE THE COOLEST DAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 70S FOR LOCATIONS
ABOVE 4500 FEET AND 80S BELOW. THE 80 DEGREE ISOTHERM CLIMBS TO
AROUND 5000 FEET FOR FRIDAY AND 5500 FEET FOR SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY AS MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. MOISTURE
WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AS A WEAK UPPER
LOW/TROF LIFTS OUT OF THE DESERT SW AND PHASES WITH A WEAK UPPER
TROF OVER THE PACIFIC NW. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA
TUESDAY INTO WEDS BRINGING AT LEAST SCTD SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS
TO MUCH OF THE CWA. DRIER WEATHER TO RETURN THURSDAY BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WITH TEMPS REMAINING CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR EXPECTED OVER ALL AERODROMES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NWLY FLOW
ALOFT. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTORM POSSIBLE OVER THE MTNS NEAR
THE COLORADO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SEEN AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS.
THERE WILL BE SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER/
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY IN PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT ALONG
AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE 80 DEGREE TEMPERATURE LINE REACHING
AROUND 6000 FEET FOR THE WEEKEND. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES SHOULD FALL
INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND FURTHER
MITIGATING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION RETURNS TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAHN
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...HAHN






000
FXUS65 KCYS 310945
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
345 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

CURRENT SATELLITE PIX SHOW BACK END OF CLOUD CANOPY NEARING THE
WY/NE STATELINE AT 09Z. AT ITS CURRENT PACE IT WILL BE EAST OF THE
CWA BY SUNRISE...RESULTING IN A MOSTLY SUNNY START TO THE DAY FOR
MOST PLACES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS HOVER BETWEEN
1-3F AND WINDS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT. ANY FOG THAT IS ABLE TO
DEVELOP THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF BY MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT A DRY DAY AHEAD AS THE BEST MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME HAS
BEEN SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT THERE MAY
BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH
AT THIS POINT. ANY CONVECTION THAT MIGHT DEVELOP WILL BE WEAK AND
PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO COLORADO SHORTLY AFTER DEVELOPMENT.

LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS AGAIN FOR FRIDAY. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR FRIDAY AS PROGD PWATS CLIMB A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. TO VARYING DEGREES...00Z MODEL DATA TRACKS
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE NAM EVEN DROPS A WEAK ATTENDANT SFC BOUNDARY INTO NRN AND WRN
ZONES. SO DID KEEP SMALL CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND ALONG THE
PINE RIDGE FOR FRIDAY. SBCAPES ARE STILL ONLY 200-500 J/KG WHICH
WILL HOLD CONVECTION STRENGTH DOWN.

RIDGE AXIS BUILDS NORTH TOWARDS THE CWFA FOR SATURDAY. PWATS ARE
PROGD TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS ON SATURDAY AND WITH WARMING MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
AGAIN. DID MAINTAIN SOME SMALL CHANCES GOING FOR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...WHICH SHOULD BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME.

A WARMING TEMPERATURE TREND WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD AS THE
RIDGE AXIS AND ASSOCIATED LLVL THERMAL RIDGE AMPLIFIES. TODAY WILL
BE THE COOLEST DAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 70S FOR LOCATIONS
ABOVE 4500 FEET AND 80S BELOW. THE 80 DEGREE ISOTHERM CLIMBS TO
AROUND 5000 FEET FOR FRIDAY AND 5500 FEET FOR SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY AS MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. MOISTURE
WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AS A WEAK UPPER
LOW/TROF LIFTS OUT OF THE DESERT SW AND PHASES WITH A WEAK UPPER
TROF OVER THE PACIFIC NW. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA
TUESDAY INTO WEDS BRINGING AT LEAST SCTD SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS
TO MUCH OF THE CWA. DRIER WEATHER TO RETURN THURSDAY BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WITH TEMPS REMAINING CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR EXPECTED OVER ALL AERODROMES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NWLY FLOW
ALOFT. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTORM POSSIBLE OVER THE MTNS NEAR
THE COLORADO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SEEN AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS.
THERE WILL BE SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER/
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY IN PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT ALONG
AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE 80 DEGREE TEMPERATURE LINE REACHING
AROUND 6000 FEET FOR THE WEEKEND. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES SHOULD FALL
INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND FURTHER
MITIGATING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION RETURNS TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAHN
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...HAHN






000
FXUS65 KCYS 310945
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
345 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

CURRENT SATELLITE PIX SHOW BACK END OF CLOUD CANOPY NEARING THE
WY/NE STATELINE AT 09Z. AT ITS CURRENT PACE IT WILL BE EAST OF THE
CWA BY SUNRISE...RESULTING IN A MOSTLY SUNNY START TO THE DAY FOR
MOST PLACES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS HOVER BETWEEN
1-3F AND WINDS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT. ANY FOG THAT IS ABLE TO
DEVELOP THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF BY MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT A DRY DAY AHEAD AS THE BEST MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME HAS
BEEN SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT THERE MAY
BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH
AT THIS POINT. ANY CONVECTION THAT MIGHT DEVELOP WILL BE WEAK AND
PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO COLORADO SHORTLY AFTER DEVELOPMENT.

LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS AGAIN FOR FRIDAY. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR FRIDAY AS PROGD PWATS CLIMB A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. TO VARYING DEGREES...00Z MODEL DATA TRACKS
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE NAM EVEN DROPS A WEAK ATTENDANT SFC BOUNDARY INTO NRN AND WRN
ZONES. SO DID KEEP SMALL CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND ALONG THE
PINE RIDGE FOR FRIDAY. SBCAPES ARE STILL ONLY 200-500 J/KG WHICH
WILL HOLD CONVECTION STRENGTH DOWN.

RIDGE AXIS BUILDS NORTH TOWARDS THE CWFA FOR SATURDAY. PWATS ARE
PROGD TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS ON SATURDAY AND WITH WARMING MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
AGAIN. DID MAINTAIN SOME SMALL CHANCES GOING FOR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...WHICH SHOULD BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME.

A WARMING TEMPERATURE TREND WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD AS THE
RIDGE AXIS AND ASSOCIATED LLVL THERMAL RIDGE AMPLIFIES. TODAY WILL
BE THE COOLEST DAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 70S FOR LOCATIONS
ABOVE 4500 FEET AND 80S BELOW. THE 80 DEGREE ISOTHERM CLIMBS TO
AROUND 5000 FEET FOR FRIDAY AND 5500 FEET FOR SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY AS MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. MOISTURE
WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AS A WEAK UPPER
LOW/TROF LIFTS OUT OF THE DESERT SW AND PHASES WITH A WEAK UPPER
TROF OVER THE PACIFIC NW. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA
TUESDAY INTO WEDS BRINGING AT LEAST SCTD SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS
TO MUCH OF THE CWA. DRIER WEATHER TO RETURN THURSDAY BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WITH TEMPS REMAINING CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR EXPECTED OVER ALL AERODROMES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NWLY FLOW
ALOFT. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTORM POSSIBLE OVER THE MTNS NEAR
THE COLORADO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SEEN AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS.
THERE WILL BE SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER/
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY IN PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT ALONG
AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE 80 DEGREE TEMPERATURE LINE REACHING
AROUND 6000 FEET FOR THE WEEKEND. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES SHOULD FALL
INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND FURTHER
MITIGATING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION RETURNS TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAHN
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...HAHN






000
FXUS65 KCYS 310945
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
345 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

CURRENT SATELLITE PIX SHOW BACK END OF CLOUD CANOPY NEARING THE
WY/NE STATELINE AT 09Z. AT ITS CURRENT PACE IT WILL BE EAST OF THE
CWA BY SUNRISE...RESULTING IN A MOSTLY SUNNY START TO THE DAY FOR
MOST PLACES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS HOVER BETWEEN
1-3F AND WINDS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT. ANY FOG THAT IS ABLE TO
DEVELOP THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF BY MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT A DRY DAY AHEAD AS THE BEST MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME HAS
BEEN SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT THERE MAY
BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH
AT THIS POINT. ANY CONVECTION THAT MIGHT DEVELOP WILL BE WEAK AND
PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO COLORADO SHORTLY AFTER DEVELOPMENT.

LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS AGAIN FOR FRIDAY. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR FRIDAY AS PROGD PWATS CLIMB A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. TO VARYING DEGREES...00Z MODEL DATA TRACKS
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE NAM EVEN DROPS A WEAK ATTENDANT SFC BOUNDARY INTO NRN AND WRN
ZONES. SO DID KEEP SMALL CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND ALONG THE
PINE RIDGE FOR FRIDAY. SBCAPES ARE STILL ONLY 200-500 J/KG WHICH
WILL HOLD CONVECTION STRENGTH DOWN.

RIDGE AXIS BUILDS NORTH TOWARDS THE CWFA FOR SATURDAY. PWATS ARE
PROGD TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS ON SATURDAY AND WITH WARMING MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
AGAIN. DID MAINTAIN SOME SMALL CHANCES GOING FOR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...WHICH SHOULD BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME.

A WARMING TEMPERATURE TREND WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD AS THE
RIDGE AXIS AND ASSOCIATED LLVL THERMAL RIDGE AMPLIFIES. TODAY WILL
BE THE COOLEST DAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 70S FOR LOCATIONS
ABOVE 4500 FEET AND 80S BELOW. THE 80 DEGREE ISOTHERM CLIMBS TO
AROUND 5000 FEET FOR FRIDAY AND 5500 FEET FOR SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY AS MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. MOISTURE
WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AS A WEAK UPPER
LOW/TROF LIFTS OUT OF THE DESERT SW AND PHASES WITH A WEAK UPPER
TROF OVER THE PACIFIC NW. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA
TUESDAY INTO WEDS BRINGING AT LEAST SCTD SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS
TO MUCH OF THE CWA. DRIER WEATHER TO RETURN THURSDAY BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WITH TEMPS REMAINING CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR EXPECTED OVER ALL AERODROMES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NWLY FLOW
ALOFT. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTORM POSSIBLE OVER THE MTNS NEAR
THE COLORADO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SEEN AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS.
THERE WILL BE SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER/
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY IN PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT ALONG
AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE 80 DEGREE TEMPERATURE LINE REACHING
AROUND 6000 FEET FOR THE WEEKEND. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES SHOULD FALL
INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND FURTHER
MITIGATING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION RETURNS TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAHN
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...HAHN






000
FXUS63 KUNR 310903
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
303 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD WITH GRADUALLY WARMING SFC
TEMPERATURES. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE RIDGE
WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND WEAK MID/UPPER CAA TO
DECREASE STABILITY AND PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AND OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY AFTN/EVE. DUE TO RELATIVELY LOW
CAPE VALUES AND WEAK SHEAR PROFILES SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN
BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE SUNDAY...AND BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
STORMS INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES OVERALL
WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH MONDAY...THEN COOLER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIP THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
-TSRA ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER WESTERN SD...MAINLY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS UNDER THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...CARPENTER
AVIATION...CARPENTER







000
FXUS63 KUNR 310903
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
303 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD WITH GRADUALLY WARMING SFC
TEMPERATURES. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE RIDGE
WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND WEAK MID/UPPER CAA TO
DECREASE STABILITY AND PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AND OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY AFTN/EVE. DUE TO RELATIVELY LOW
CAPE VALUES AND WEAK SHEAR PROFILES SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN
BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE SUNDAY...AND BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
STORMS INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES OVERALL
WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH MONDAY...THEN COOLER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIP THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
-TSRA ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER WESTERN SD...MAINLY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS UNDER THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...CARPENTER
AVIATION...CARPENTER






000
FXUS65 KRIW 310854
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
254 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

KEPT FOG IN THIS MORNINGS FORECAST IN SOUTHERN WY WHERE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL OF UP TO AN INCH FELL IN PORTIONS OF LINCOLN COUNTY IN
SOUTHWEST WY WED. SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL OCCUR IN
WESTERN WY AND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY
AS TEMPERATURES RECOVER CLOSER TO NORMAL THANKS TO MORE AMPLE
SUNSHINE WITH LESS HIGH AND MIDDLE CLOUDINESS AROUND. ON FRIDAY
EXPECT EVEN BETTER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE RIDING UP AND OVER THE PARKED RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS
FEATURE WILL SPIN A WEAK CLOSED OFF LOW OVER IDAHO AND THAT WILL
PROPAGATE EAST TO CENTRAL WY BY FRIDAY NIGHT ACDG TO THE GFS. THE H7
CIRCULATION WILL TRACK JUST TO OUR SOUTH OVER CO. SATURDAY WILL ALSO
FEATURE ANOTHER DECENT ROUND OF MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
MOISTURE STREAM ASCT WITH THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL EASTERLY
WAVE...WHICH WILL THEN BE OVER NEVADA WITH A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING
EAST FROM IT INTO WYOMING...BISECTS A SFC LEE SIDE TROUGH.  HIGH
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE AN UPWARD CLIMB THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN THE HEAT AROUND THE WEST SIDE
OF THE RIDGE.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

RIDGE AXIS IS STILL EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST OF US EARLY
NEXT WEEK OPENING THE DOOR TO A SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTH. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH THAT ORIGINATE AS ELY WAVES UNDERNEATH
OUR 4-CORNERS HIGH. THE ECMWF AND GEM KEEP THE LARGER OF THE
DISTURBANCES SOUTH OF US MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHILE THE GFS TAKES
THE MAIN DISTURBANCE/CIRCULATION ACROSS US LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. EITHER WAY THEY ALL SHOW A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH POTENTIAL
DISTURBANCES/CIRCULATIONS. THE FORECAST WEAK FLOW AND PW`S OVER AN
INCH IN MANY AREAS WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN
MONDAY AND OR TUESDAY SIMILAR TO OUR EPISODE THIS WEEK. A DRIER NW
FLOW DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. NORMALLY THIS COULD BE A
FAVORABLE THUNDERSTORM PATTERN BUT WITH OUT A SURFACE HIGH TO THE
N OR NE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY SUSTAINED MOIST ELY FLOW EAST OF
THE DIVIDE. WILL KEEP MOST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING POPS TO
MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS. THE GFS DOES HAVE SOME ENERGY IN THE NW FLOW
WEDNESDAY YET SO WILL KEEP OUR ISOLD LOWER ELEVATION POPS FOR NOW.
MAINLY MOUNTAIN CHANCES BY THURSDAY. SUNDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
HOTTEST DAY WITH H7 TEMPERATURES PUSHING 15C MEANING UPPER 80S TO
SOME 90S EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WEST WITH
65 TO NEAR 80 MOUNTAINS. COOLER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH RAIN
POTENTIAL...HIGHER DEW POINTS AND CLOUD COVER. WARMING AGAIN
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL OCCUR
IN SOUTHWEST WY UNTIL 15Z WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FORM OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 19Z
AND CONTINUE THROUGH 02Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL LINGER UNTIL 06Z
FRIDAY. MOST TERMINAL SITES WILL NOT SEE STORMS OR SHOWERS TODAY AND
THIS EVENING. PLEASE SEE INDIVIDUAL TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR DETAILS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL BRING ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A MORE PROMINENT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE UP AND OVER THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
PARKED OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY WITH THE MOST NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY
EXPECTED OVER WESTERN WY AS FAR EAST AS THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE
CENTRAL BASINS. ANOTHER SLUG OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL...AGAIN...BRING
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RECOVER DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK BUT WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON











000
FXUS65 KRIW 310520
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1120 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY (ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT)

CERTAINLY MUCH QUIETER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY WAS AT THIS TIME.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE MUCH LOWER THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE IS
STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND AND COMBINED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH FOR SOME SHOWERS TO LINGER...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE WIND
RIVER RANGE AND ALSO ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. AND LIKE
YESTERDAY...WHERE MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS IT IS STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY
SO TEMPERATURES AND INSTABILITY ARE RELATIVELY LIMITED. AS A
RESULT...FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTH. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AREAS WHERE
MORE SUNSHINE WILL BRING MORE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THERE IS NOT A
LOT OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT EVEN TO VAST MAJORITY OF STORMS WOULD BE
OF THE RUN OF THE MILL VARIETY.

ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REALLY WANE AFTER THE EVENING HOURS AS
DRIER AIR CONTINUES PRESS TOWARD THE SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE. WITH
THE RAIN THERE COULD BE SOME FOG IN THE SOUTH SO WE WILL ADD SOME TO
THOSE AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED RAIN TODAY.

AS FOR TOMORROW...MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL NOT BE A LOT OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.  HOWEVER...WITH YET ANOTHER IN THE STRING OF
NEVER ENDING SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WE WILL
LIKELY HAVE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE HIGH ELEVATION HEAT SOURCE. WITH MORE
SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE UPWARD TREND MORE SUNSHINE
AND INCREASING THICKNESSES BUT REMAIN NEAR TO SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

OVERALL THU NIGHT THROUGH THE WEAKEN...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST
AS UPR LVL RIDGE DOES NOT VARY MUCH IN POSITION THRU SAT...EXCEPT TO
SLIGHTLY MIGRATE EWD A FEW MILES...REMOVING THE FA FROM NW FLOW BY
SAT....THEN BROADENING AND FLATTENING SUN. AT LOWER LVLS...HEAT LOW
OVR THE DESERT SW REMAIN AND WILL KEEP PUMPING MONSOONAL MOISTURE
INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN PERIODICALLY. WHILE IT WILL NOT BE A CONSTANT
STREAM OF MOISTURE OR KEEP PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA THE ENTIRE
PERIOD...THE WRN MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH THE SRN MOST FA WILL BE
AFFECTED MOST THRU THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONALLY...AS THE RIDGE WANDER
WWD...HEIGHTS WILL RECOVER AND TEMPS WILL WILL BEGIN A SLOW RISE
BACK TO SEASONABLY WARM. CONVECTIVE FORCING THRU THE WEEKEND WILL
BEST COME FROM THE MOUNTAINS FIRST AND MINOR UPR LVL DISTURBANCES
SECOND.

MON THRU WED...BEST CHCS IN THE EXTENDED FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR IN
THE MON/TUE TIMEFRAME...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO WED OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL OCCUR FOR SEVERAL REASONS...INCLUDING THE MOVEMENT OF
STRONG PVA THAT WILL GENERATE HIGH OVER THE SONORA DESERT THIS
WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO A SMALL DISTURBANCE THAT SHOWS WEAKLY IN THE
WV IMAGERY OVR THE SRN BAJA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN INCREASED POSITIVE VORT AS IT MOVES OVR THE HEAT LOW AND UNDER
THE UPR HIGH...NWD MOVEMENT...AND POSSIBLY THE FORMATION OF A WEAK
UPR LOW BY SUN. THIS WILL THEN BE DRAWN UP INTO THE GREAT BASIN
THRU SUN WITH THE OF THE EASIER TO FCST UPSTREAM TROF KICKING OUT OF
AND AHEAD OF THE LARGE GULF OF AK  LOW. THESE CONDITIONS WILL THEN
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CWA BY MONDAY WITH A LARGE INCREASE IN DEEP
MOISTURE PHASING WITH A LITTLE BETTER UPR DYNAMICS IN ADDITION TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE LOW LVL BOUNDARIES LIKE A LEE LOW AND
POSSIBLE MID LVL FRONTOGENESIS. ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO FCST WAS
TO RAISE LOW TEMPS MON NIGHT AND TO LOWER HIGH TEMPS FOR TUE WITH
SIGNIFICANT INCREASES IN CLOUDINESS AFFECTING BOTH.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. PATCHY FOG
WILL OCCUR IN SOUTHWEST WY UNTIL 15Z WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FORM OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
AFTER 19Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 02Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL LINGER
UNTIL 06Z FRIDAY. MOST TERMINAL SITES WILL NOT SEE STORMS OR SHOWERS
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. PLEASE SEE INDIVIDUAL TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING SHOULD END WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL BRING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS
AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE UP AND
OVER THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY WITH THE MOST
NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED OVER WESTERN WY AS FAR EAST AS THE
WESTERN EDGES OF THE CENTRAL BASINS. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
RECOVER DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK BUT WILL REMAIN AT OR
BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...BRAUN
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS






000
FXUS63 KUNR 310516
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1116 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
ABUNDANT TCU FROM THE BLACK HILLS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
STRONGER SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY OVER SASKATCHEWAN...MOVES THROUGH
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT/THURSDAY WITH ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA.
GIVEN LOW CAPE/WEAK SHEAR...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH END
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A SERIES OF WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE FLOW SLOWLY...BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE...AND BRINGING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH MONDAY...THEN COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
ACCOMPANY THE HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIP THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1114 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
-TSRA ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY OVER WESTERN SD...MAINLY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS UNDER THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...HELGESON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 310516
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1116 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
ABUNDANT TCU FROM THE BLACK HILLS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
STRONGER SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY OVER SASKATCHEWAN...MOVES THROUGH
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT/THURSDAY WITH ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA.
GIVEN LOW CAPE/WEAK SHEAR...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH END
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A SERIES OF WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE FLOW SLOWLY...BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE...AND BRINGING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH MONDAY...THEN COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
ACCOMPANY THE HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIP THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1114 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
-TSRA ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY OVER WESTERN SD...MAINLY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS UNDER THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...HELGESON





000
FXUS65 KCYS 310428
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1028 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

CURRENT IR SATELLITE LOOP AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE STUBBORN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WYOMING. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THIS FEATURE WEAKENING AND
DISSIPATING NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER TONIGHT...INSTEAD OF MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS THE REASON WHY CONDITIONS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO IMPROVE TODAY ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR. EXPECT OFF AND ON RAIN
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES...SO KEPT
TSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL WILL LIKELY
END BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA WITH JUST CLOUDY
AND VERY COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
A FEW OF THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS LOCATIONS SEE LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE ONLY OTHER
MINOR CONCERN TONIGHT IS FOG...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE.

MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...LIMITING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE AND
GENERALLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IT WILL BE PLEASANT DURING
THE DAY HOWEVER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...WARMEST
OVER EAST CENTRAL WYOMING TO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. IT WILL REMAIN
COOL AT NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S OR POSSIBLY UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE HIGH VALLEYS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. KEPT A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. FURTHER EAST..THIS DRY AIR WILL MAINLY
BE ALOFT WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 40S AND 50S EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. THIS DRY AIR ALONG WITH A TEMPERATURE INVERSION
ABOVE 600MB WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP ACROSS THE
PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE MAINTAIN A
STRONG HOLD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THRU THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MOSTLY DRY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THIS TIME WITH PERHAPS ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR A
FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK TO MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR BY SUNDAY AS H7 TEMPS INCREASE TO BETWEEN 11 AND
17C. ANOTHER PUSH OF SUBTROPICAL ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL RIDE UP
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. WITH WARMER TEMPS AND PWATS FORECAST TO EXCEED ONE
INCH...LOOKING AT A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS TIME. STEERING FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WEAK SO THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL INCREASE AS WELL. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPSLOPE REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWING SURFACE WINDS STAYING WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.
SO WENT AHEAD AND PULLED THE IFR FOG/STRATUS OUT OF KCYS AND KLAR.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BEYOND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND DUE TO THE RECENT
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS...HIGH HUMIDITIES...AND LOWER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIGHT AS WELL ACROSS THE AREA.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...TJT






000
FXUS65 KCYS 310428
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1028 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

CURRENT IR SATELLITE LOOP AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE STUBBORN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WYOMING. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THIS FEATURE WEAKENING AND
DISSIPATING NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER TONIGHT...INSTEAD OF MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS THE REASON WHY CONDITIONS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO IMPROVE TODAY ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR. EXPECT OFF AND ON RAIN
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES...SO KEPT
TSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL WILL LIKELY
END BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA WITH JUST CLOUDY
AND VERY COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
A FEW OF THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS LOCATIONS SEE LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE ONLY OTHER
MINOR CONCERN TONIGHT IS FOG...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE.

MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...LIMITING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE AND
GENERALLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IT WILL BE PLEASANT DURING
THE DAY HOWEVER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...WARMEST
OVER EAST CENTRAL WYOMING TO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. IT WILL REMAIN
COOL AT NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S OR POSSIBLY UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE HIGH VALLEYS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. KEPT A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. FURTHER EAST..THIS DRY AIR WILL MAINLY
BE ALOFT WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 40S AND 50S EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. THIS DRY AIR ALONG WITH A TEMPERATURE INVERSION
ABOVE 600MB WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP ACROSS THE
PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE MAINTAIN A
STRONG HOLD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THRU THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MOSTLY DRY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THIS TIME WITH PERHAPS ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR A
FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK TO MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR BY SUNDAY AS H7 TEMPS INCREASE TO BETWEEN 11 AND
17C. ANOTHER PUSH OF SUBTROPICAL ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL RIDE UP
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. WITH WARMER TEMPS AND PWATS FORECAST TO EXCEED ONE
INCH...LOOKING AT A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS TIME. STEERING FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WEAK SO THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL INCREASE AS WELL. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPSLOPE REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWING SURFACE WINDS STAYING WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.
SO WENT AHEAD AND PULLED THE IFR FOG/STRATUS OUT OF KCYS AND KLAR.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BEYOND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND DUE TO THE RECENT
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS...HIGH HUMIDITIES...AND LOWER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIGHT AS WELL ACROSS THE AREA.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...TJT







000
FXUS63 KUNR 302326
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
526 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
ABUNDANT TCU FROM THE BLACK HILLS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
STRONGER SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY OVER SASKATCHEWAN...MOVES THROUGH
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT/THURSDAY WITH ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA.
GIVEN LOW CAPE/WEAK SHEAR...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH END
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A SERIES OF WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE FLOW SLOWLY...BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE...AND BRINGING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH MONDAY...THEN COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
ACCOMPANY THE HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIP THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
-TSRA ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING OVER CENTRAL SD AND
THE BLACK HILLS AREA WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS IN THE HEAVIEST PRECIP.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...HELGESON





000
FXUS63 KUNR 302326
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
526 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
ABUNDANT TCU FROM THE BLACK HILLS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
STRONGER SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY OVER SASKATCHEWAN...MOVES THROUGH
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT/THURSDAY WITH ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA.
GIVEN LOW CAPE/WEAK SHEAR...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH END
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A SERIES OF WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE FLOW SLOWLY...BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE...AND BRINGING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH MONDAY...THEN COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
ACCOMPANY THE HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIP THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
-TSRA ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING OVER CENTRAL SD AND
THE BLACK HILLS AREA WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS IN THE HEAVIEST PRECIP.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...HELGESON




000
FXUS65 KCYS 302316
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
516 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

CURRENT IR SATELLITE LOOP AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE STUBBORN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WYOMING. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THIS FEATURE WEAKENING AND
DISSIPATING NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER TONIGHT...INSTEAD OF MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS THE REASON WHY CONDITIONS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO IMPROVE TODAY ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR. EXPECT OFF AND ON RAIN
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES...SO KEPT
TSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL WILL LIKELY
END BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA WITH JUST CLOUDY
AND VERY COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
A FEW OF THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS LOCATIONS SEE LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE ONLY OTHER
MINOR CONCERN TONIGHT IS FOG...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE.

MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...LIMITING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE AND
GENERALLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IT WILL BE PLEASANT DURING
THE DAY HOWEVER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...WARMEST
OVER EAST CENTRAL WYOMING TO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. IT WILL REMAIN
COOL AT NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S OR POSSIBLY UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE HIGH VALLEYS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. KEPT A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. FURTHER EAST..THIS DRY AIR WILL MAINLY
BE ALOFT WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 40S AND 50S EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. THIS DRY AIR ALONG WITH A TEMPERATURE INVERSION
ABOVE 600MB WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP ACROSS THE
PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE MAINTAIN A
STRONG HOLD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THRU THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MOSTLY DRY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THIS TIME WITH PERHAPS ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR A
FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK TO MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR BY SUNDAY AS H7 TEMPS INCREASE TO BETWEEN 11 AND
17C. ANOTHER PUSH OF SUBTROPICAL ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL RIDE UP
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. WITH WARMER TEMPS AND PWATS FORECAST TO EXCEED ONE
INCH...LOOKING AT A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS TIME. STEERING FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WEAK SO THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL INCREASE AS WELL. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPSLOPE REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 512 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE. COULD
SEE SOME IFR FOG AND/OR STRATUS HERE AT KCYS AND KLAR. SREF AND
LATEST HRRR FORECAST HINTING AT THIS FOR BOTH AIRPORTS. WENT AHEAD
AND BROUGHT MVFR CONDITIONS IN AT 04Z AND THEN IFR AROUND 07Z.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON THE TIMING OF THE MVFR/IFR. OUTSIDE THE
SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND DUE TO THE RECENT
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS...HIGH HUMIDITIES...AND LOWER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIGHT AS WELL ACROSS THE AREA.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...TJT






000
FXUS65 KCYS 302316
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
516 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

CURRENT IR SATELLITE LOOP AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE STUBBORN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WYOMING. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THIS FEATURE WEAKENING AND
DISSIPATING NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER TONIGHT...INSTEAD OF MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS THE REASON WHY CONDITIONS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO IMPROVE TODAY ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR. EXPECT OFF AND ON RAIN
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES...SO KEPT
TSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL WILL LIKELY
END BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA WITH JUST CLOUDY
AND VERY COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
A FEW OF THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS LOCATIONS SEE LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE ONLY OTHER
MINOR CONCERN TONIGHT IS FOG...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE.

MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...LIMITING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE AND
GENERALLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IT WILL BE PLEASANT DURING
THE DAY HOWEVER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...WARMEST
OVER EAST CENTRAL WYOMING TO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. IT WILL REMAIN
COOL AT NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S OR POSSIBLY UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE HIGH VALLEYS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. KEPT A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. FURTHER EAST..THIS DRY AIR WILL MAINLY
BE ALOFT WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 40S AND 50S EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. THIS DRY AIR ALONG WITH A TEMPERATURE INVERSION
ABOVE 600MB WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP ACROSS THE
PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE MAINTAIN A
STRONG HOLD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THRU THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MOSTLY DRY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THIS TIME WITH PERHAPS ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR A
FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK TO MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR BY SUNDAY AS H7 TEMPS INCREASE TO BETWEEN 11 AND
17C. ANOTHER PUSH OF SUBTROPICAL ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL RIDE UP
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. WITH WARMER TEMPS AND PWATS FORECAST TO EXCEED ONE
INCH...LOOKING AT A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS TIME. STEERING FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WEAK SO THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL INCREASE AS WELL. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPSLOPE REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 512 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE. COULD
SEE SOME IFR FOG AND/OR STRATUS HERE AT KCYS AND KLAR. SREF AND
LATEST HRRR FORECAST HINTING AT THIS FOR BOTH AIRPORTS. WENT AHEAD
AND BROUGHT MVFR CONDITIONS IN AT 04Z AND THEN IFR AROUND 07Z.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON THE TIMING OF THE MVFR/IFR. OUTSIDE THE
SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND DUE TO THE RECENT
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS...HIGH HUMIDITIES...AND LOWER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIGHT AS WELL ACROSS THE AREA.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...TJT







000
FXUS65 KCYS 302140
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
340 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

CURRENT IR SATELLITE LOOP AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE STUBBORN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WYOMING. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THIS FEATURE WEAKENING AND
DISSIPATING NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER TONIGHT...INSTEAD OF MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS THE REASON WHY CONDITIONS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO IMPROVE TODAY ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR. EXPECT OFF AND ON RAIN
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES...SO KEPT
TSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL WILL LIKELY
END BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA WITH JUST CLOUDY
AND VERY COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
A FEW OF THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS LOCATIONS SEE LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE ONLY OTHER
MINOR CONCERN TONIGHT IS FOG...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE.

MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...LIMITING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE AND
GENERALLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IT WILL BE PLEASANT DURING
THE DAY HOWEVER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...WARMEST
OVER EAST CENTRAL WYOMING TO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. IT WILL REMAIN
COOL AT NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S OR POSSIBLY UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE HIGH VALLEYS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. KEPT A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. FURTHER EAST..THIS DRY AIR WILL MAINLY
BE ALOFT WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 40S AND 50S EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. THIS DRY AIR ALONG WITH A TEMPERATURE INVERSION
ABOVE 600MB WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP ACROSS THE
PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE MAINTAIN A
STRONG HOLD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THRU THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MOSTLY DRY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THIS TIME WITH PERHAPS ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR A
FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK TO MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR BY SUNDAY AS H7 TEMPS INCREASE TO BETWEEN 11 AND
17C. ANOTHER PUSH OF SUBTROPICAL ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL RIDE UP
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. WITH WARMER TEMPS AND PWATS FORECAST TO EXCEED ONE
INCH...LOOKING AT A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS TIME. STEERING FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WEAK SO THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL INCREASE AS WELL. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPSLOPE REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IN RAIN
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND INTO SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA AS WELL. THIS INCLUDES KRWL...KLAR...KCYS...AND KSNY.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FOR THESE LOCATIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A RETURN TO VFR ANTICIPATED BY THIS EVENING. THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING WILL REMAIN OBSCURED THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH
WILL KEEP VFR CIGS IN PLACE. WINDS OVERALL WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING MUCH OF CARBON COUNTY WHERE GUSTS
OF 20 TO 25 KTS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND DUE TO THE RECENT
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS...HIGH HUMIDITIES...AND LOWER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIGHT AS WELL ACROSS THE AREA.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...TJT






000
FXUS65 KCYS 302140
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
340 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

CURRENT IR SATELLITE LOOP AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE STUBBORN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WYOMING. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THIS FEATURE WEAKENING AND
DISSIPATING NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER TONIGHT...INSTEAD OF MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS THE REASON WHY CONDITIONS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO IMPROVE TODAY ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR. EXPECT OFF AND ON RAIN
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES...SO KEPT
TSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL WILL LIKELY
END BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA WITH JUST CLOUDY
AND VERY COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
A FEW OF THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS LOCATIONS SEE LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE ONLY OTHER
MINOR CONCERN TONIGHT IS FOG...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE.

MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...LIMITING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE AND
GENERALLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IT WILL BE PLEASANT DURING
THE DAY HOWEVER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...WARMEST
OVER EAST CENTRAL WYOMING TO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. IT WILL REMAIN
COOL AT NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S OR POSSIBLY UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE HIGH VALLEYS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. KEPT A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. FURTHER EAST..THIS DRY AIR WILL MAINLY
BE ALOFT WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 40S AND 50S EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. THIS DRY AIR ALONG WITH A TEMPERATURE INVERSION
ABOVE 600MB WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP ACROSS THE
PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE MAINTAIN A
STRONG HOLD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THRU THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MOSTLY DRY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THIS TIME WITH PERHAPS ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR A
FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK TO MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR BY SUNDAY AS H7 TEMPS INCREASE TO BETWEEN 11 AND
17C. ANOTHER PUSH OF SUBTROPICAL ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL RIDE UP
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. WITH WARMER TEMPS AND PWATS FORECAST TO EXCEED ONE
INCH...LOOKING AT A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS TIME. STEERING FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WEAK SO THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL INCREASE AS WELL. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPSLOPE REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IN RAIN
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND INTO SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA AS WELL. THIS INCLUDES KRWL...KLAR...KCYS...AND KSNY.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FOR THESE LOCATIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A RETURN TO VFR ANTICIPATED BY THIS EVENING. THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING WILL REMAIN OBSCURED THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH
WILL KEEP VFR CIGS IN PLACE. WINDS OVERALL WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING MUCH OF CARBON COUNTY WHERE GUSTS
OF 20 TO 25 KTS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND DUE TO THE RECENT
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS...HIGH HUMIDITIES...AND LOWER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIGHT AS WELL ACROSS THE AREA.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...TJT







000
FXUS65 KRIW 302100
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
300 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

CERTAINLY MUCH QUIETER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY WAS AT THIS TIME.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE MUCH LOWER THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE IS
STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND AND COMBINED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH FOR SOME SHOWERS TO LINGER...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE WIND
RIVER RANGE AND ALSO ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. AND LIKE
YESTERDAY...WHERE MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS IT IS STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY
SO TEMPERATURES AND INSTABILITY ARE RELATIVELY LIMITED. AS A
RESULT...FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTH. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AREAS WHERE
MORE SUNSHINE WILL BRING MORE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THERE IS NOT A
LOT OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT EVEN TO VAST MAJORITY OF STORMS WOULD BE
OF THE RUN OF THE MILL VARIETY.

ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REALLY WANE AFTER THE EVENING HOURS AS
DRIER AIR CONTINUES PRESS TOWARD THE SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE. WITH
THE RAIN THERE COULD BE SOME FOG IN THE SOUTH SO WE WILL ADD SOME TO
THOSE AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED RAIN TODAY.

AS FOR TOMORROW...MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL NOT BE A LOT OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.  HOWEVER...WITH YET ANOTHER IN THE STRING OF
NEVER ENDING SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WE WILL
LIKELY HAVE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE HIGH ELEVATION HEAT SOURCE. WITH MORE
SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE UPWARD TREND MORE SUNSHINE
AND INCREASING THICKNESSES BUT REMAIN NEAR TO SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

OVERALL THU NIGHT THROUGH THE WEAKEN...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST AS UPR
LVL RIDGE DOES NOT VARY MUCH IN POSITION THRU SAT...EXCEPT TO SLIGHTLY
MIGRATE EWD A FEW MILES...REMOVING THE FA FROM NW FLOW BY
SAT....THEN BROADENING AND FLATTENING SUN. AT LOWER LVLS...HEAT LOW
OVR THE DESERT SW REMAIN AND WILL KEEP PUMPING MONSOONAL MOISTURE
INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN PERIODICALLY. WHILE IT WILL NOT BE A CONSTANT
STREAM OF MOISTURE OR KEEP PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA THE ENTIRE
PERIOD...THE WRN MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH THE SRN MOST FA WILL BE
AFFECTED MOST THRU THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONALLY...AS THE RIDGE WANDER
WWD...HEIGHTS WILL RECOVER AND TEMPS WILL WILL BEGIN A SLOW RISE
BACK TO SEASONABLY WARM. CONVECTIVE FORCING THRU THE WEEKEND WILL
BEST COME FROM THE MOUNTAINS FIRST AND MINOR UPR LVL DISTURBANCES
SECOND.

MON THRU WED...BEST CHCS IN THE EXTENDED FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR IN
THE MON/TUE TIMEFRAME...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO WED OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL OCCUR FOR SEVERAL REASONS...INCLUDING THE MOVEMENT OF
STRONG PVA THAT WILL GENERATE HIGH OVER THE SONORA DESERT THIS
WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO A SMALL DISTURBANCE THAT SHOWS WEAKLY IN THE
WV IMAGERY OVR THE SRN BAJA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN INCREASED POSITIVE VORT AS IT MOVES OVR THE HEAT LOW AND UNDER
THE UPR HIGH...NWD MOVEMENT...AND POSSIBLY THE FORMATION OF A WEAK
UPR LOW BY SUN. THIS WILL THEN BE DRAWN UP INTO THE GREAT BASIN
THRU SUN WITH THE OF THE EASIER TO FCST UPSTREAM TROF KICKING OUT OF
AND AHEAD OF THE LARGE GULF OF AK  LOW. THESE CONDITIONS WILL THEN
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CWA BY MONDAY WITH A LARGE INCREASE IN DEEP
MOISTURE PHASING WITH A LITTLE BETTER UPR DYNAMICS IN ADDITION TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MORE LOW LVL BOUNDARIES LIKE A LEE LOW AND POSSIBLE
MID LVL FRONTOGENESIS. ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO FCST WAS TO RAISE
LOW TEMPS MON NIGHT AND TO LOWER HIGH TEMPS FOR TUE WITH SIGNIFICANT
INCREASES IN CLOUDINESS AFFECTING BOTH.
&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

MOST CONVECTION SHOULD END AT THE TAF SITES WEST OF THE DIVIDE BY
AROUND 3Z WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A FEW SPOTS COULD SEE PATCHY
FOG...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF KJAC...KPNA...KBPI AND KRKS BUT NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREDOMINATE MOST OF TOMORROW WITH ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
RESTRICTED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND IN VICINITY OF KJAC.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING SHOULD END WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL BRING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS
AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE UP AND
OVER THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY WITH THE MOST
NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED OVER WESTERN WY AS FAR EAST AS THE
WESTERN EDGES OF THE CENTRAL BASINS. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
RECOVER DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK BUT WILL REMAIN AT OR
BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGH TEMPS.
&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...BRAUN
AVIATION...HATTINGS
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS






000
FXUS65 KRIW 302100
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
300 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

CERTAINLY MUCH QUIETER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY WAS AT THIS TIME.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE MUCH LOWER THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE IS
STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND AND COMBINED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH FOR SOME SHOWERS TO LINGER...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE WIND
RIVER RANGE AND ALSO ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. AND LIKE
YESTERDAY...WHERE MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS IT IS STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY
SO TEMPERATURES AND INSTABILITY ARE RELATIVELY LIMITED. AS A
RESULT...FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTH. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AREAS WHERE
MORE SUNSHINE WILL BRING MORE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THERE IS NOT A
LOT OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT EVEN TO VAST MAJORITY OF STORMS WOULD BE
OF THE RUN OF THE MILL VARIETY.

ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REALLY WANE AFTER THE EVENING HOURS AS
DRIER AIR CONTINUES PRESS TOWARD THE SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE. WITH
THE RAIN THERE COULD BE SOME FOG IN THE SOUTH SO WE WILL ADD SOME TO
THOSE AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED RAIN TODAY.

AS FOR TOMORROW...MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL NOT BE A LOT OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.  HOWEVER...WITH YET ANOTHER IN THE STRING OF
NEVER ENDING SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WE WILL
LIKELY HAVE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE HIGH ELEVATION HEAT SOURCE. WITH MORE
SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE UPWARD TREND MORE SUNSHINE
AND INCREASING THICKNESSES BUT REMAIN NEAR TO SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

OVERALL THU NIGHT THROUGH THE WEAKEN...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST AS UPR
LVL RIDGE DOES NOT VARY MUCH IN POSITION THRU SAT...EXCEPT TO SLIGHTLY
MIGRATE EWD A FEW MILES...REMOVING THE FA FROM NW FLOW BY
SAT....THEN BROADENING AND FLATTENING SUN. AT LOWER LVLS...HEAT LOW
OVR THE DESERT SW REMAIN AND WILL KEEP PUMPING MONSOONAL MOISTURE
INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN PERIODICALLY. WHILE IT WILL NOT BE A CONSTANT
STREAM OF MOISTURE OR KEEP PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA THE ENTIRE
PERIOD...THE WRN MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH THE SRN MOST FA WILL BE
AFFECTED MOST THRU THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONALLY...AS THE RIDGE WANDER
WWD...HEIGHTS WILL RECOVER AND TEMPS WILL WILL BEGIN A SLOW RISE
BACK TO SEASONABLY WARM. CONVECTIVE FORCING THRU THE WEEKEND WILL
BEST COME FROM THE MOUNTAINS FIRST AND MINOR UPR LVL DISTURBANCES
SECOND.

MON THRU WED...BEST CHCS IN THE EXTENDED FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR IN
THE MON/TUE TIMEFRAME...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO WED OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL OCCUR FOR SEVERAL REASONS...INCLUDING THE MOVEMENT OF
STRONG PVA THAT WILL GENERATE HIGH OVER THE SONORA DESERT THIS
WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO A SMALL DISTURBANCE THAT SHOWS WEAKLY IN THE
WV IMAGERY OVR THE SRN BAJA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN INCREASED POSITIVE VORT AS IT MOVES OVR THE HEAT LOW AND UNDER
THE UPR HIGH...NWD MOVEMENT...AND POSSIBLY THE FORMATION OF A WEAK
UPR LOW BY SUN. THIS WILL THEN BE DRAWN UP INTO THE GREAT BASIN
THRU SUN WITH THE OF THE EASIER TO FCST UPSTREAM TROF KICKING OUT OF
AND AHEAD OF THE LARGE GULF OF AK  LOW. THESE CONDITIONS WILL THEN
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CWA BY MONDAY WITH A LARGE INCREASE IN DEEP
MOISTURE PHASING WITH A LITTLE BETTER UPR DYNAMICS IN ADDITION TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MORE LOW LVL BOUNDARIES LIKE A LEE LOW AND POSSIBLE
MID LVL FRONTOGENESIS. ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO FCST WAS TO RAISE
LOW TEMPS MON NIGHT AND TO LOWER HIGH TEMPS FOR TUE WITH SIGNIFICANT
INCREASES IN CLOUDINESS AFFECTING BOTH.
&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

MOST CONVECTION SHOULD END AT THE TAF SITES WEST OF THE DIVIDE BY
AROUND 3Z WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A FEW SPOTS COULD SEE PATCHY
FOG...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF KJAC...KPNA...KBPI AND KRKS BUT NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREDOMINATE MOST OF TOMORROW WITH ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
RESTRICTED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND IN VICINITY OF KJAC.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING SHOULD END WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL BRING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS
AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE UP AND
OVER THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY WITH THE MOST
NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED OVER WESTERN WY AS FAR EAST AS THE
WESTERN EDGES OF THE CENTRAL BASINS. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
RECOVER DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK BUT WILL REMAIN AT OR
BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGH TEMPS.
&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...BRAUN
AVIATION...HATTINGS
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS





000
FXUS63 KUNR 302034
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
234 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
ABUNDANT TCU FROM THE BLACK HILLS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
STRONGER SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY OVER SASKATCHEWAN...MOVES THROUGH
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT/THURSDAY WITH ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA.
GIVEN LOW CAPE/WEAK SHEAR...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH END
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A SERIES OF WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE FLOW SLOWLY...BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE...AND BRINGING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH MONDAY...THEN COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
ACCOMPANY THE HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIP THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
-TSRA ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL SD AND THE BLACK
HILLS AREA WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS IN THE HEAVIEST PRECIP.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13







000
FXUS63 KUNR 302034
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
234 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
ABUNDANT TCU FROM THE BLACK HILLS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
STRONGER SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY OVER SASKATCHEWAN...MOVES THROUGH
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT/THURSDAY WITH ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA.
GIVEN LOW CAPE/WEAK SHEAR...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH END
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A SERIES OF WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE FLOW SLOWLY...BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE...AND BRINGING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH MONDAY...THEN COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
ACCOMPANY THE HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIP THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
-TSRA ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL SD AND THE BLACK
HILLS AREA WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS IN THE HEAVIEST PRECIP.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13







000
FXUS63 KUNR 302034
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
234 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
ABUNDANT TCU FROM THE BLACK HILLS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
STRONGER SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY OVER SASKATCHEWAN...MOVES THROUGH
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT/THURSDAY WITH ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA.
GIVEN LOW CAPE/WEAK SHEAR...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH END
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A SERIES OF WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE FLOW SLOWLY...BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE...AND BRINGING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH MONDAY...THEN COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
ACCOMPANY THE HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIP THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
-TSRA ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL SD AND THE BLACK
HILLS AREA WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS IN THE HEAVIEST PRECIP.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13







000
FXUS63 KUNR 302034
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
234 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
ABUNDANT TCU FROM THE BLACK HILLS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
STRONGER SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY OVER SASKATCHEWAN...MOVES THROUGH
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT/THURSDAY WITH ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA.
GIVEN LOW CAPE/WEAK SHEAR...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH END
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A SERIES OF WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE FLOW SLOWLY...BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE...AND BRINGING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH MONDAY...THEN COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
ACCOMPANY THE HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIP THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
-TSRA ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL SD AND THE BLACK
HILLS AREA WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS IN THE HEAVIEST PRECIP.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13







000
FXUS65 KCYS 301751
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1151 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL MAINLY ALONG THE I80
CORRIDOR FROM RAWLINS EASTWARD TO PINE BLUFFS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN BETWEEN ONE TENTH TO ONE HALF INCH NEAR
THE COLORADO BORDER...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ADDED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON SINCE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AS
THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY STILL BE OVER
CENTRAL WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY COME
TO AN END THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

A LARGE AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
THIS AM WITH GOOD LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW MOVING TOWARD
THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM NORTHEAST CO...WITH ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE FROM SOUTHEAST WY INTO PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THIS SHOULD KEEP LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN GOING
FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. RAINFALL RATES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HAVE
BEEN BETWEEN ONE AND TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR...SO HAVE NOT
BEEN SEEING ANYTHING PARTICULARLY HEAVY. MODELED SOUNDINGS FOR CYS
HAVE SHOWN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN HEAVY RAIN PARAMETERS WITH PWAT
VALUES CLOSER TO 1 INCH AND THE K-INDEX UNDER 30 AS OF 08Z. MOST
IMPORTANTLY...AIR MASS IS NOW MUCH MORE STABLE THAN IT WAS ON TUE
AFTN AND EVE. THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED...SO
WILL DROP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH PRIOR TO ITS SCHEDULED EXPIRATION
AT 12Z THIS AM. UPSLOPE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY AFTN AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE LOST AS FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS SHIFT ACROSS
THE MIDWEST STATES AND MIDLVL PVA SPREADS INTO CO. SHOULD SEE THE
MAIN AREA OF PCPN GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE DAY. REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE GRIDS AS BOTH
THE GFS AND NAM SHOW VIRTUALLY NO CAPE THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT WILL
BE QUITE COOL TODAY...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND JUST E OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE WITH PERSISTENT UPSLOPE KEEPING IT CLOUDY AND WET THROUGH AT
LEAST PEAK HEATING. HIGHS AROUND 60 FOR CYS WOULD PUT US CLOSE TO
A RECORD LOW MAXIMUM OF 59 F FOR THIS DATE.

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. H7 TEMPS INCREASE ANOTHER 5
TO 8 DEG C THROUGH FRI AFTN PER BOTH THE GFS AND NAM...AND MODEST
MOISTURE ABOVE 700 MILLIBARS SHOULD YIELD PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON
THU AND FRI WITH UPPER 80S RETURNING TO THE PANHANDLE. NO FURTHER
SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED AS THE OVERALL PATTERN WOULD FAVOR ANY
ACTIVITY TO BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW A BIT
OF MIDLVL MOISTURE SPREADING ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE
ON FRI AFTN...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THAT. BELIEVE IT WILL REMAIN ISOLATED THOUGH GIVEN THE LACK
OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL FORCING MECHANISM...SO WENT AHEAD AND BROUGHT
POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LOCATED ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
AMPLIFY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BEFORE BEING FLATTENED AS THE
PATTERN TURNS MORE ACTIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER WITH THE AVAILABLE MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVR
THE WEEKEND. AS SUCH...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM
FROM LOWER ELEVATIONS...INSTEAD CONFINING ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ABOVE 7000 FEET OVR THE SNOWY/SIERRA
MADRE/SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGES. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
SUMMERTIME NORMS OVR THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE AXIS AND REFLECTED
THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE CWA. H7 TEMPERATURE PROGS CLIMB TO
AROUND 12C ON SATURDAY...AND TO AROUND 14C FOR SUNDAY. HIGHER VALUES
WILL BE FOUND OVR THE WRN CWA...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES EAST.
THE RESULT WILL BE FOR HIGH TEMPS TO REACH THE 70S AND 80S SATURDAY
AND 80S AND 90S FOR SUNDAY.

THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO NR THE FRONT RANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE CWFA FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS. MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
FTR WITH THE ECMWF QUICKER AND STRONGER COMPARED TO THE GFS. HAVE
BOOSTED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS A RESULT MONDAY AFTERNOON
THRU TUESDAY NIGHT. PWAT VALUES RETURN TO VALUES SIMILAR THOSE SEEN
YESTERDAY. IF THIS PATTERN MATERIALIZES...THE COMBINATION OF THE
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AND SLOW STEERING FLOW WILL AGAIN HEIGHTEN AT
LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING LATE MONDAY THRU TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOMEWHAT AS THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN.
SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS DRY TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IN RAIN
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND INTO SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA AS WELL. THIS INCLUDES KRWL...KLAR...KCYS...AND KSNY.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FOR THESE LOCATIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A RETURN TO VFR ANTICIPATED BY THIS EVENING. THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING WILL REMAIN OBSCURED THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH
WILL KEEP VFR CIGS IN PLACE. WINDS OVERALL WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING MUCH OF CARBON COUNTY WHERE GUSTS
OF 20 TO 25 KTS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND THE WESTERN
NE PANHANDLE. ANOTHER HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. VERY COOL TODAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S AT CHEYENNE AND RAWLINS. COOLER CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH NEW MOISTURE WILL MITIGATE ANY NOTABLE FIRE WEATHER
HAZARDS. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...BUT AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TJT
SHORT TERM...HAMMER
LONG TERM...HAHN
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...HAMMER






000
FXUS65 KCYS 301751
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1151 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL MAINLY ALONG THE I80
CORRIDOR FROM RAWLINS EASTWARD TO PINE BLUFFS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN BETWEEN ONE TENTH TO ONE HALF INCH NEAR
THE COLORADO BORDER...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ADDED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON SINCE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AS
THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY STILL BE OVER
CENTRAL WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY COME
TO AN END THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

A LARGE AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
THIS AM WITH GOOD LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW MOVING TOWARD
THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM NORTHEAST CO...WITH ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE FROM SOUTHEAST WY INTO PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THIS SHOULD KEEP LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN GOING
FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. RAINFALL RATES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HAVE
BEEN BETWEEN ONE AND TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR...SO HAVE NOT
BEEN SEEING ANYTHING PARTICULARLY HEAVY. MODELED SOUNDINGS FOR CYS
HAVE SHOWN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN HEAVY RAIN PARAMETERS WITH PWAT
VALUES CLOSER TO 1 INCH AND THE K-INDEX UNDER 30 AS OF 08Z. MOST
IMPORTANTLY...AIR MASS IS NOW MUCH MORE STABLE THAN IT WAS ON TUE
AFTN AND EVE. THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED...SO
WILL DROP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH PRIOR TO ITS SCHEDULED EXPIRATION
AT 12Z THIS AM. UPSLOPE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY AFTN AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE LOST AS FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS SHIFT ACROSS
THE MIDWEST STATES AND MIDLVL PVA SPREADS INTO CO. SHOULD SEE THE
MAIN AREA OF PCPN GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE DAY. REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE GRIDS AS BOTH
THE GFS AND NAM SHOW VIRTUALLY NO CAPE THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT WILL
BE QUITE COOL TODAY...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND JUST E OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE WITH PERSISTENT UPSLOPE KEEPING IT CLOUDY AND WET THROUGH AT
LEAST PEAK HEATING. HIGHS AROUND 60 FOR CYS WOULD PUT US CLOSE TO
A RECORD LOW MAXIMUM OF 59 F FOR THIS DATE.

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. H7 TEMPS INCREASE ANOTHER 5
TO 8 DEG C THROUGH FRI AFTN PER BOTH THE GFS AND NAM...AND MODEST
MOISTURE ABOVE 700 MILLIBARS SHOULD YIELD PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON
THU AND FRI WITH UPPER 80S RETURNING TO THE PANHANDLE. NO FURTHER
SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED AS THE OVERALL PATTERN WOULD FAVOR ANY
ACTIVITY TO BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW A BIT
OF MIDLVL MOISTURE SPREADING ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE
ON FRI AFTN...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THAT. BELIEVE IT WILL REMAIN ISOLATED THOUGH GIVEN THE LACK
OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL FORCING MECHANISM...SO WENT AHEAD AND BROUGHT
POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LOCATED ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
AMPLIFY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BEFORE BEING FLATTENED AS THE
PATTERN TURNS MORE ACTIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER WITH THE AVAILABLE MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVR
THE WEEKEND. AS SUCH...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM
FROM LOWER ELEVATIONS...INSTEAD CONFINING ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ABOVE 7000 FEET OVR THE SNOWY/SIERRA
MADRE/SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGES. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
SUMMERTIME NORMS OVR THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE AXIS AND REFLECTED
THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE CWA. H7 TEMPERATURE PROGS CLIMB TO
AROUND 12C ON SATURDAY...AND TO AROUND 14C FOR SUNDAY. HIGHER VALUES
WILL BE FOUND OVR THE WRN CWA...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES EAST.
THE RESULT WILL BE FOR HIGH TEMPS TO REACH THE 70S AND 80S SATURDAY
AND 80S AND 90S FOR SUNDAY.

THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO NR THE FRONT RANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE CWFA FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS. MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
FTR WITH THE ECMWF QUICKER AND STRONGER COMPARED TO THE GFS. HAVE
BOOSTED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS A RESULT MONDAY AFTERNOON
THRU TUESDAY NIGHT. PWAT VALUES RETURN TO VALUES SIMILAR THOSE SEEN
YESTERDAY. IF THIS PATTERN MATERIALIZES...THE COMBINATION OF THE
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AND SLOW STEERING FLOW WILL AGAIN HEIGHTEN AT
LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING LATE MONDAY THRU TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOMEWHAT AS THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN.
SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS DRY TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IN RAIN
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND INTO SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA AS WELL. THIS INCLUDES KRWL...KLAR...KCYS...AND KSNY.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FOR THESE LOCATIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A RETURN TO VFR ANTICIPATED BY THIS EVENING. THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING WILL REMAIN OBSCURED THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH
WILL KEEP VFR CIGS IN PLACE. WINDS OVERALL WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING MUCH OF CARBON COUNTY WHERE GUSTS
OF 20 TO 25 KTS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND THE WESTERN
NE PANHANDLE. ANOTHER HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. VERY COOL TODAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S AT CHEYENNE AND RAWLINS. COOLER CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH NEW MOISTURE WILL MITIGATE ANY NOTABLE FIRE WEATHER
HAZARDS. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...BUT AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TJT
SHORT TERM...HAMMER
LONG TERM...HAHN
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...HAMMER







000
FXUS63 KUNR 301708
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1108 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE
RIDGE WILL INTERACT WITH MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME.

HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THIS MORNING
FOR A FEW SHOWERS CURRENTLY WORKING SOUTHWARD OVER CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY...HOWEVER A WEAK
SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL
SURFACE HEATING AND WEAK COOLING ALOFT TO CREATE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE SRN BLACK HILLS AND
THE ADJACENT AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND ALSO CLOSER TO
THE WAVE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CREATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA OVER
FAR NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE CHANCES
SPREADING SOUTHWARD OVER THE REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA DURING THE DAY AS DIURNAL HEATING AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER CAA
ALOFT COMBINE TO INCREASE THE INSTABILITY. DRY AIR WILL BE FOUND
OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING WITH THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
EXPECT TO FALL INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE THERE ON THURSDAY
AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

A PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD.
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...BUT MODELS
ARE INDICATING A GRADUAL BREAKDOWN AND SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVES
PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES THIS WEEKEND WITH A BETTER CHANCE DEVELOPING
BY MIDWEEK WHEN A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES BEFORE COOLING A FEW
DEGREES MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED -TSRA
MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL SD AND THE BLACK HILLS
AREA WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS IN THE HEAVIEST PRECIP.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...CARPENTER
AVIATION...13







000
FXUS65 KRIW 301708
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1108 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

UPPER CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE OVER THE IDAHO/WY BORDER ACDG TO
SATELLITE LOOP WITH THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER LINCOLN CO SW WY
ACDG TO RADAR. THESE CIRCULATIONS WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE
REMAINING STRATIFORM PRECIP BECOMES MORE FOCUSED PRIMARILY OVER
SWEETWATER AND SOUTHEAST NATRONA COUNTIES. THE UPPER CIRCULATION
WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO THE RED DESERT TODAY WITH THE MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION DRIFTING FROM NE UTAH TO NW CO. THE ASCT RAINFALL WILL
EXIT SOUTHERN WY AROUND MID DAY JUST AS FRESH CONVECTION FORMS OVER
NORTHWEST WY THIS AFTERNOON. THE PREVAILING SURFACE WIND WILL BE
FROM THE EAST NORTH OF THE LOW...ESPECIALLY OVER SWEETWATER COUNTY
KEEPING US UNDER A RELATIVELY MILD AND MOIST AIRMASS BUT WARMER THAN
TUESDAY. ON THURSDAY...MORE CONVECTION WILL FORM MAINLY IN NORTHWEST
WY WHERE THE BEST LIFTED INDICES/CAPES WILL BE. THEN ON FRIDAY
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LOW WILL RIDE UP AND OVER THE STATIONARY RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES AND IS PROGGED TO BE OVER NW WY BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE CWA FRIDAY AFT/EVE. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RECOVER DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK BUT WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR
HIGH TEMPS.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WEEKEND LOOKS TO START WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEARLY OVERHEAD WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FORECAST TO BE IN THE WESTERN AND
ESPECIALLY NWRN MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DRIFT ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTH. GFS DRIES OUT THE AIRMASS
SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY FOR MAINLY WRN MTN STORMS. EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS
QUITE INTERESTING AGAIN WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF DECENT RAINFALL AS
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST OF US OPENING THE DOOR FOR
INCREASING MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES. THE GFS HAS THE
MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE WEST MONDAY WITH SOME INCREASE EAST OF THE
DIVIDE BY EVENING. THE ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE HIGHER PW AIR OVER
THE ENTIRE CWFA MONDAY. THE GEM IS CLOSER IN TIMING TO THE GFS. ALL
THE MODELS SEEM TO BRING UP THE REMNANTS OF AN ELY WAVE ORIGINATING
ON THE BOTTOM OF THE 4-CORNERS HIGH FOR LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN BUT EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY MOIST AND UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF MORE
RAIN FOR A LARGE PART OF THE AREA. ECMWF IS SHOWING RAPID DRYING
TUESDAY IN A NW FLOW AS THE RIDGE REDEVELOPS TO OUR WEST. THE GFS IS
SLOWER TO DEVELOP THE NW FLOW...MORE WNW YET TUESDAY...WITH THE
REMNANT WAVE STILL HANGING OVER THE ERN PART OF THE AREA. STICKING
WITH SCT POPS YET TUESDAY BEFORE SOME DRYING OCCURS WEDNESDAY WITH
SCT POPS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND GENERALLY ISOLATED ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. DEPENDING ON EXACT TIMING THE WARMEST DAYS LOOK TO
BE SUNDAY AND POTENTIALLY MONDAY IF THE SLOWER MONSOONAL GFS TIMING
OCCURS. COOLER WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PCPN THEN TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY REBOUND SOME WEDNESDAY BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/
IN THE AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
MAINLY OCCUR OVER THE WEST AND SOUTH. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE
OVER THE FAR WEST AND WILL HAVE VCTS ONLY AT JAC TERMINAL FOR
NOW...WITH VCSH OVER THE REST OF THE TERMINALS WEST OF THE DIVIDE.
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION EAST OF THE
DIVIDE...COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH VCTS. DURING THE
EVENING...CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY WANE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT EASTERLY IN MOST AREAS TODAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BREEZY
EAST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS SWEETWATER COUNTY IMPACTING KRKS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL EXIT SWEETWATER COUNTY
TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING. SOON AFTERWARD...WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT EAST WINDS 15 TO 30 MPH TODAY ACROSS ZONE 279. THURSDAY
WILL BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN WYOMING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
RIDE UP AND OVER THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE
ROCKIES FRIDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY WITH THE MOST NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED OVER
WESTERN WY AS FAR EAST AS THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE CENTRAL BASINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RECOVER DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK BUT WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...HATTINGS
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON












000
FXUS63 KUNR 301708
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1108 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE
RIDGE WILL INTERACT WITH MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME.

HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THIS MORNING
FOR A FEW SHOWERS CURRENTLY WORKING SOUTHWARD OVER CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY...HOWEVER A WEAK
SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL
SURFACE HEATING AND WEAK COOLING ALOFT TO CREATE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE SRN BLACK HILLS AND
THE ADJACENT AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND ALSO CLOSER TO
THE WAVE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CREATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA OVER
FAR NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE CHANCES
SPREADING SOUTHWARD OVER THE REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA DURING THE DAY AS DIURNAL HEATING AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER CAA
ALOFT COMBINE TO INCREASE THE INSTABILITY. DRY AIR WILL BE FOUND
OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING WITH THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
EXPECT TO FALL INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE THERE ON THURSDAY
AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

A PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD.
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...BUT MODELS
ARE INDICATING A GRADUAL BREAKDOWN AND SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVES
PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES THIS WEEKEND WITH A BETTER CHANCE DEVELOPING
BY MIDWEEK WHEN A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES BEFORE COOLING A FEW
DEGREES MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED -TSRA
MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL SD AND THE BLACK HILLS
AREA WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS IN THE HEAVIEST PRECIP.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...CARPENTER
AVIATION...13






000
FXUS65 KRIW 301708
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1108 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

UPPER CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE OVER THE IDAHO/WY BORDER ACDG TO
SATELLITE LOOP WITH THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER LINCOLN CO SW WY
ACDG TO RADAR. THESE CIRCULATIONS WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE
REMAINING STRATIFORM PRECIP BECOMES MORE FOCUSED PRIMARILY OVER
SWEETWATER AND SOUTHEAST NATRONA COUNTIES. THE UPPER CIRCULATION
WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO THE RED DESERT TODAY WITH THE MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION DRIFTING FROM NE UTAH TO NW CO. THE ASCT RAINFALL WILL
EXIT SOUTHERN WY AROUND MID DAY JUST AS FRESH CONVECTION FORMS OVER
NORTHWEST WY THIS AFTERNOON. THE PREVAILING SURFACE WIND WILL BE
FROM THE EAST NORTH OF THE LOW...ESPECIALLY OVER SWEETWATER COUNTY
KEEPING US UNDER A RELATIVELY MILD AND MOIST AIRMASS BUT WARMER THAN
TUESDAY. ON THURSDAY...MORE CONVECTION WILL FORM MAINLY IN NORTHWEST
WY WHERE THE BEST LIFTED INDICES/CAPES WILL BE. THEN ON FRIDAY
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LOW WILL RIDE UP AND OVER THE STATIONARY RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES AND IS PROGGED TO BE OVER NW WY BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE CWA FRIDAY AFT/EVE. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RECOVER DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK BUT WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR
HIGH TEMPS.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WEEKEND LOOKS TO START WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEARLY OVERHEAD WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FORECAST TO BE IN THE WESTERN AND
ESPECIALLY NWRN MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DRIFT ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTH. GFS DRIES OUT THE AIRMASS
SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY FOR MAINLY WRN MTN STORMS. EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS
QUITE INTERESTING AGAIN WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF DECENT RAINFALL AS
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST OF US OPENING THE DOOR FOR
INCREASING MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES. THE GFS HAS THE
MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE WEST MONDAY WITH SOME INCREASE EAST OF THE
DIVIDE BY EVENING. THE ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE HIGHER PW AIR OVER
THE ENTIRE CWFA MONDAY. THE GEM IS CLOSER IN TIMING TO THE GFS. ALL
THE MODELS SEEM TO BRING UP THE REMNANTS OF AN ELY WAVE ORIGINATING
ON THE BOTTOM OF THE 4-CORNERS HIGH FOR LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN BUT EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY MOIST AND UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF MORE
RAIN FOR A LARGE PART OF THE AREA. ECMWF IS SHOWING RAPID DRYING
TUESDAY IN A NW FLOW AS THE RIDGE REDEVELOPS TO OUR WEST. THE GFS IS
SLOWER TO DEVELOP THE NW FLOW...MORE WNW YET TUESDAY...WITH THE
REMNANT WAVE STILL HANGING OVER THE ERN PART OF THE AREA. STICKING
WITH SCT POPS YET TUESDAY BEFORE SOME DRYING OCCURS WEDNESDAY WITH
SCT POPS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND GENERALLY ISOLATED ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. DEPENDING ON EXACT TIMING THE WARMEST DAYS LOOK TO
BE SUNDAY AND POTENTIALLY MONDAY IF THE SLOWER MONSOONAL GFS TIMING
OCCURS. COOLER WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PCPN THEN TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY REBOUND SOME WEDNESDAY BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/
IN THE AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
MAINLY OCCUR OVER THE WEST AND SOUTH. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE
OVER THE FAR WEST AND WILL HAVE VCTS ONLY AT JAC TERMINAL FOR
NOW...WITH VCSH OVER THE REST OF THE TERMINALS WEST OF THE DIVIDE.
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION EAST OF THE
DIVIDE...COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH VCTS. DURING THE
EVENING...CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY WANE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT EASTERLY IN MOST AREAS TODAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BREEZY
EAST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS SWEETWATER COUNTY IMPACTING KRKS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL EXIT SWEETWATER COUNTY
TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING. SOON AFTERWARD...WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT EAST WINDS 15 TO 30 MPH TODAY ACROSS ZONE 279. THURSDAY
WILL BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN WYOMING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
RIDE UP AND OVER THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE
ROCKIES FRIDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY WITH THE MOST NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED OVER
WESTERN WY AS FAR EAST AS THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE CENTRAL BASINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RECOVER DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK BUT WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...HATTINGS
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON













000
FXUS65 KCYS 301546
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
946 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL MAINLY ALONG THE I80
CORRIDOR FROM RAWLINS EASTWARD TO PINE BLUFFS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN BETWEEN ONE TENTH TO ONE HALF INCH NEAR
THE COLORADO BORDER...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ADDED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON SINCE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AS
THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY STILL BE OVER
CENTRAL WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY COME
TO AN END THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

A LARGE AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
THIS AM WITH GOOD LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW MOVING TOWARD
THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM NORTHEAST CO...WITH ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE FROM SOUTHEAST WY INTO PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THIS SHOULD KEEP LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN GOING
FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. RAINFALL RATES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HAVE
BEEN BETWEEN ONE AND TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR...SO HAVE NOT
BEEN SEEING ANYTHING PARTICULARLY HEAVY. MODELED SOUNDINGS FOR CYS
HAVE SHOWN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN HEAVY RAIN PARAMETERS WITH PWAT
VALUES CLOSER TO 1 INCH AND THE K-INDEX UNDER 30 AS OF 08Z. MOST
IMPORTANTLY...AIR MASS IS NOW MUCH MORE STABLE THAN IT WAS ON TUE
AFTN AND EVE. THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED...SO
WILL DROP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH PRIOR TO ITS SCHEDULED EXPIRATION
AT 12Z THIS AM. UPSLOPE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY AFTN AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE LOST AS FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS SHIFT ACROSS
THE MIDWEST STATES AND MIDLVL PVA SPREADS INTO CO. SHOULD SEE THE
MAIN AREA OF PCPN GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE DAY. REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE GRIDS AS BOTH
THE GFS AND NAM SHOW VIRTUALLY NO CAPE THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT WILL
BE QUITE COOL TODAY...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND JUST E OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE WITH PERSISTENT UPSLOPE KEEPING IT CLOUDY AND WET THROUGH AT
LEAST PEAK HEATING. HIGHS AROUND 60 FOR CYS WOULD PUT US CLOSE TO
A RECORD LOW MAXIMUM OF 59 F FOR THIS DATE.

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. H7 TEMPS INCREASE ANOTHER 5
TO 8 DEG C THROUGH FRI AFTN PER BOTH THE GFS AND NAM...AND MODEST
MOISTURE ABOVE 700 MILLIBARS SHOULD YIELD PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON
THU AND FRI WITH UPPER 80S RETURNING TO THE PANHANDLE. NO FURTHER
SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED AS THE OVERALL PATTERN WOULD FAVOR ANY
ACTIVITY TO BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW A BIT
OF MIDLVL MOISTURE SPREADING ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE
ON FRI AFTN...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THAT. BELIEVE IT WILL REMAIN ISOLATED THOUGH GIVEN THE LACK
OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL FORCING MECHANISM...SO WENT AHEAD AND BROUGHT
POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LOCATED ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
AMPLIFY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BEFORE BEING FLATTENED AS THE
PATTERN TURNS MORE ACTIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER WITH THE AVAILABLE MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVR
THE WEEKEND. AS SUCH...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM
FROM LOWER ELEVATIONS...INSTEAD CONFINING ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ABOVE 7000 FEET OVR THE SNOWY/SIERRA
MADRE/SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGES. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
SUMMERTIME NORMS OVR THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE AXIS AND REFLECTED
THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE CWA. H7 TEMPERATURE PROGS CLIMB TO
AROUND 12C ON SATURDAY...AND TO AROUND 14C FOR SUNDAY. HIGHER VALUES
WILL BE FOUND OVR THE WRN CWA...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES EAST.
THE RESULT WILL BE FOR HIGH TEMPS TO REACH THE 70S AND 80S SATURDAY
AND 80S AND 90S FOR SUNDAY.

THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO NR THE FRONT RANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE CWFA FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS. MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
FTR WITH THE ECMWF QUICKER AND STRONGER COMPARED TO THE GFS. HAVE
BOOSTED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS A RESULT MONDAY AFTERNOON
THRU TUESDAY NIGHT. PWAT VALUES RETURN TO VALUES SIMILAR THOSE SEEN
YESTERDAY. IF THIS PATTERN MATERIALIZES...THE COMBINATION OF THE
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AND SLOW STEERING FLOW WILL AGAIN HEIGHTEN AT
LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING LATE MONDAY THRU TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOMEWHAT AS THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN.
SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS DRY TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 322 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING FOR MOST
TERMINALS AS LOW STRATUS AND -RA CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE OVR THE WRN NEBRASKA LOCATIONS WHERE RAINS HAVE
BEEN MORE SPOTTY AND LIGHTER. ALTHOUGH LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING...EXPECT SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT BY
AROUND MIDDAY...THOUGH MVFR CIGS ARE STILL EXPECTED. THIS LOW
STRATUS WILL OBSCURE SOUTHEAST WYOMING MOUNTAINS TODAY. CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH A
RETURN TO VFR ANTICIPATED BY THIS EVENING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND THE WESTERN
NE PANHANDLE. ANOTHER HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. VERY COOL TODAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S AT CHEYENNE AND RAWLINS. COOLER CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH NEW MOISTURE WILL MITIGATE ANY NOTABLE FIRE WEATHER
HAZARDS. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...BUT AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TJT
SHORT TERM...HAMMER
LONG TERM...HAHN
AVIATION...HAHN
FIRE WEATHER...HAMMER










000
FXUS65 KCYS 301546
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
946 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL MAINLY ALONG THE I80
CORRIDOR FROM RAWLINS EASTWARD TO PINE BLUFFS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN BETWEEN ONE TENTH TO ONE HALF INCH NEAR
THE COLORADO BORDER...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ADDED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON SINCE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AS
THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY STILL BE OVER
CENTRAL WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY COME
TO AN END THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

A LARGE AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
THIS AM WITH GOOD LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW MOVING TOWARD
THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM NORTHEAST CO...WITH ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE FROM SOUTHEAST WY INTO PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THIS SHOULD KEEP LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN GOING
FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. RAINFALL RATES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HAVE
BEEN BETWEEN ONE AND TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR...SO HAVE NOT
BEEN SEEING ANYTHING PARTICULARLY HEAVY. MODELED SOUNDINGS FOR CYS
HAVE SHOWN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN HEAVY RAIN PARAMETERS WITH PWAT
VALUES CLOSER TO 1 INCH AND THE K-INDEX UNDER 30 AS OF 08Z. MOST
IMPORTANTLY...AIR MASS IS NOW MUCH MORE STABLE THAN IT WAS ON TUE
AFTN AND EVE. THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED...SO
WILL DROP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH PRIOR TO ITS SCHEDULED EXPIRATION
AT 12Z THIS AM. UPSLOPE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY AFTN AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE LOST AS FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS SHIFT ACROSS
THE MIDWEST STATES AND MIDLVL PVA SPREADS INTO CO. SHOULD SEE THE
MAIN AREA OF PCPN GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE DAY. REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE GRIDS AS BOTH
THE GFS AND NAM SHOW VIRTUALLY NO CAPE THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT WILL
BE QUITE COOL TODAY...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND JUST E OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE WITH PERSISTENT UPSLOPE KEEPING IT CLOUDY AND WET THROUGH AT
LEAST PEAK HEATING. HIGHS AROUND 60 FOR CYS WOULD PUT US CLOSE TO
A RECORD LOW MAXIMUM OF 59 F FOR THIS DATE.

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. H7 TEMPS INCREASE ANOTHER 5
TO 8 DEG C THROUGH FRI AFTN PER BOTH THE GFS AND NAM...AND MODEST
MOISTURE ABOVE 700 MILLIBARS SHOULD YIELD PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON
THU AND FRI WITH UPPER 80S RETURNING TO THE PANHANDLE. NO FURTHER
SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED AS THE OVERALL PATTERN WOULD FAVOR ANY
ACTIVITY TO BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW A BIT
OF MIDLVL MOISTURE SPREADING ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE
ON FRI AFTN...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THAT. BELIEVE IT WILL REMAIN ISOLATED THOUGH GIVEN THE LACK
OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL FORCING MECHANISM...SO WENT AHEAD AND BROUGHT
POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LOCATED ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
AMPLIFY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BEFORE BEING FLATTENED AS THE
PATTERN TURNS MORE ACTIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER WITH THE AVAILABLE MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVR
THE WEEKEND. AS SUCH...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM
FROM LOWER ELEVATIONS...INSTEAD CONFINING ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ABOVE 7000 FEET OVR THE SNOWY/SIERRA
MADRE/SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGES. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
SUMMERTIME NORMS OVR THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE AXIS AND REFLECTED
THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE CWA. H7 TEMPERATURE PROGS CLIMB TO
AROUND 12C ON SATURDAY...AND TO AROUND 14C FOR SUNDAY. HIGHER VALUES
WILL BE FOUND OVR THE WRN CWA...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES EAST.
THE RESULT WILL BE FOR HIGH TEMPS TO REACH THE 70S AND 80S SATURDAY
AND 80S AND 90S FOR SUNDAY.

THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO NR THE FRONT RANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE CWFA FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS. MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
FTR WITH THE ECMWF QUICKER AND STRONGER COMPARED TO THE GFS. HAVE
BOOSTED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS A RESULT MONDAY AFTERNOON
THRU TUESDAY NIGHT. PWAT VALUES RETURN TO VALUES SIMILAR THOSE SEEN
YESTERDAY. IF THIS PATTERN MATERIALIZES...THE COMBINATION OF THE
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AND SLOW STEERING FLOW WILL AGAIN HEIGHTEN AT
LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING LATE MONDAY THRU TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOMEWHAT AS THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN.
SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS DRY TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 322 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING FOR MOST
TERMINALS AS LOW STRATUS AND -RA CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE OVR THE WRN NEBRASKA LOCATIONS WHERE RAINS HAVE
BEEN MORE SPOTTY AND LIGHTER. ALTHOUGH LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING...EXPECT SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT BY
AROUND MIDDAY...THOUGH MVFR CIGS ARE STILL EXPECTED. THIS LOW
STRATUS WILL OBSCURE SOUTHEAST WYOMING MOUNTAINS TODAY. CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH A
RETURN TO VFR ANTICIPATED BY THIS EVENING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND THE WESTERN
NE PANHANDLE. ANOTHER HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. VERY COOL TODAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S AT CHEYENNE AND RAWLINS. COOLER CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH NEW MOISTURE WILL MITIGATE ANY NOTABLE FIRE WEATHER
HAZARDS. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...BUT AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TJT
SHORT TERM...HAMMER
LONG TERM...HAHN
AVIATION...HAHN
FIRE WEATHER...HAMMER










000
FXUS65 KCYS 301546
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
946 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL MAINLY ALONG THE I80
CORRIDOR FROM RAWLINS EASTWARD TO PINE BLUFFS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN BETWEEN ONE TENTH TO ONE HALF INCH NEAR
THE COLORADO BORDER...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ADDED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON SINCE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AS
THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY STILL BE OVER
CENTRAL WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY COME
TO AN END THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

A LARGE AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
THIS AM WITH GOOD LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW MOVING TOWARD
THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM NORTHEAST CO...WITH ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE FROM SOUTHEAST WY INTO PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THIS SHOULD KEEP LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN GOING
FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. RAINFALL RATES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HAVE
BEEN BETWEEN ONE AND TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR...SO HAVE NOT
BEEN SEEING ANYTHING PARTICULARLY HEAVY. MODELED SOUNDINGS FOR CYS
HAVE SHOWN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN HEAVY RAIN PARAMETERS WITH PWAT
VALUES CLOSER TO 1 INCH AND THE K-INDEX UNDER 30 AS OF 08Z. MOST
IMPORTANTLY...AIR MASS IS NOW MUCH MORE STABLE THAN IT WAS ON TUE
AFTN AND EVE. THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED...SO
WILL DROP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH PRIOR TO ITS SCHEDULED EXPIRATION
AT 12Z THIS AM. UPSLOPE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY AFTN AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE LOST AS FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS SHIFT ACROSS
THE MIDWEST STATES AND MIDLVL PVA SPREADS INTO CO. SHOULD SEE THE
MAIN AREA OF PCPN GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE DAY. REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE GRIDS AS BOTH
THE GFS AND NAM SHOW VIRTUALLY NO CAPE THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT WILL
BE QUITE COOL TODAY...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND JUST E OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE WITH PERSISTENT UPSLOPE KEEPING IT CLOUDY AND WET THROUGH AT
LEAST PEAK HEATING. HIGHS AROUND 60 FOR CYS WOULD PUT US CLOSE TO
A RECORD LOW MAXIMUM OF 59 F FOR THIS DATE.

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. H7 TEMPS INCREASE ANOTHER 5
TO 8 DEG C THROUGH FRI AFTN PER BOTH THE GFS AND NAM...AND MODEST
MOISTURE ABOVE 700 MILLIBARS SHOULD YIELD PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON
THU AND FRI WITH UPPER 80S RETURNING TO THE PANHANDLE. NO FURTHER
SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED AS THE OVERALL PATTERN WOULD FAVOR ANY
ACTIVITY TO BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW A BIT
OF MIDLVL MOISTURE SPREADING ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE
ON FRI AFTN...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THAT. BELIEVE IT WILL REMAIN ISOLATED THOUGH GIVEN THE LACK
OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL FORCING MECHANISM...SO WENT AHEAD AND BROUGHT
POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LOCATED ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
AMPLIFY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BEFORE BEING FLATTENED AS THE
PATTERN TURNS MORE ACTIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER WITH THE AVAILABLE MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVR
THE WEEKEND. AS SUCH...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM
FROM LOWER ELEVATIONS...INSTEAD CONFINING ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ABOVE 7000 FEET OVR THE SNOWY/SIERRA
MADRE/SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGES. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
SUMMERTIME NORMS OVR THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE AXIS AND REFLECTED
THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE CWA. H7 TEMPERATURE PROGS CLIMB TO
AROUND 12C ON SATURDAY...AND TO AROUND 14C FOR SUNDAY. HIGHER VALUES
WILL BE FOUND OVR THE WRN CWA...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES EAST.
THE RESULT WILL BE FOR HIGH TEMPS TO REACH THE 70S AND 80S SATURDAY
AND 80S AND 90S FOR SUNDAY.

THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO NR THE FRONT RANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE CWFA FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS. MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
FTR WITH THE ECMWF QUICKER AND STRONGER COMPARED TO THE GFS. HAVE
BOOSTED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS A RESULT MONDAY AFTERNOON
THRU TUESDAY NIGHT. PWAT VALUES RETURN TO VALUES SIMILAR THOSE SEEN
YESTERDAY. IF THIS PATTERN MATERIALIZES...THE COMBINATION OF THE
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AND SLOW STEERING FLOW WILL AGAIN HEIGHTEN AT
LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING LATE MONDAY THRU TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOMEWHAT AS THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN.
SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS DRY TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 322 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING FOR MOST
TERMINALS AS LOW STRATUS AND -RA CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE OVR THE WRN NEBRASKA LOCATIONS WHERE RAINS HAVE
BEEN MORE SPOTTY AND LIGHTER. ALTHOUGH LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING...EXPECT SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT BY
AROUND MIDDAY...THOUGH MVFR CIGS ARE STILL EXPECTED. THIS LOW
STRATUS WILL OBSCURE SOUTHEAST WYOMING MOUNTAINS TODAY. CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH A
RETURN TO VFR ANTICIPATED BY THIS EVENING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND THE WESTERN
NE PANHANDLE. ANOTHER HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. VERY COOL TODAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S AT CHEYENNE AND RAWLINS. COOLER CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH NEW MOISTURE WILL MITIGATE ANY NOTABLE FIRE WEATHER
HAZARDS. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...BUT AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TJT
SHORT TERM...HAMMER
LONG TERM...HAHN
AVIATION...HAHN
FIRE WEATHER...HAMMER










000
FXUS65 KCYS 301546
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
946 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL MAINLY ALONG THE I80
CORRIDOR FROM RAWLINS EASTWARD TO PINE BLUFFS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN BETWEEN ONE TENTH TO ONE HALF INCH NEAR
THE COLORADO BORDER...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ADDED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON SINCE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AS
THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY STILL BE OVER
CENTRAL WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY COME
TO AN END THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

A LARGE AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
THIS AM WITH GOOD LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW MOVING TOWARD
THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM NORTHEAST CO...WITH ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE FROM SOUTHEAST WY INTO PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THIS SHOULD KEEP LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN GOING
FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. RAINFALL RATES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HAVE
BEEN BETWEEN ONE AND TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR...SO HAVE NOT
BEEN SEEING ANYTHING PARTICULARLY HEAVY. MODELED SOUNDINGS FOR CYS
HAVE SHOWN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN HEAVY RAIN PARAMETERS WITH PWAT
VALUES CLOSER TO 1 INCH AND THE K-INDEX UNDER 30 AS OF 08Z. MOST
IMPORTANTLY...AIR MASS IS NOW MUCH MORE STABLE THAN IT WAS ON TUE
AFTN AND EVE. THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED...SO
WILL DROP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH PRIOR TO ITS SCHEDULED EXPIRATION
AT 12Z THIS AM. UPSLOPE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY AFTN AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE LOST AS FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS SHIFT ACROSS
THE MIDWEST STATES AND MIDLVL PVA SPREADS INTO CO. SHOULD SEE THE
MAIN AREA OF PCPN GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE DAY. REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE GRIDS AS BOTH
THE GFS AND NAM SHOW VIRTUALLY NO CAPE THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT WILL
BE QUITE COOL TODAY...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND JUST E OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE WITH PERSISTENT UPSLOPE KEEPING IT CLOUDY AND WET THROUGH AT
LEAST PEAK HEATING. HIGHS AROUND 60 FOR CYS WOULD PUT US CLOSE TO
A RECORD LOW MAXIMUM OF 59 F FOR THIS DATE.

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. H7 TEMPS INCREASE ANOTHER 5
TO 8 DEG C THROUGH FRI AFTN PER BOTH THE GFS AND NAM...AND MODEST
MOISTURE ABOVE 700 MILLIBARS SHOULD YIELD PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON
THU AND FRI WITH UPPER 80S RETURNING TO THE PANHANDLE. NO FURTHER
SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED AS THE OVERALL PATTERN WOULD FAVOR ANY
ACTIVITY TO BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW A BIT
OF MIDLVL MOISTURE SPREADING ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE
ON FRI AFTN...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THAT. BELIEVE IT WILL REMAIN ISOLATED THOUGH GIVEN THE LACK
OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL FORCING MECHANISM...SO WENT AHEAD AND BROUGHT
POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LOCATED ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
AMPLIFY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BEFORE BEING FLATTENED AS THE
PATTERN TURNS MORE ACTIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER WITH THE AVAILABLE MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVR
THE WEEKEND. AS SUCH...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM
FROM LOWER ELEVATIONS...INSTEAD CONFINING ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ABOVE 7000 FEET OVR THE SNOWY/SIERRA
MADRE/SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGES. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
SUMMERTIME NORMS OVR THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE AXIS AND REFLECTED
THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE CWA. H7 TEMPERATURE PROGS CLIMB TO
AROUND 12C ON SATURDAY...AND TO AROUND 14C FOR SUNDAY. HIGHER VALUES
WILL BE FOUND OVR THE WRN CWA...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES EAST.
THE RESULT WILL BE FOR HIGH TEMPS TO REACH THE 70S AND 80S SATURDAY
AND 80S AND 90S FOR SUNDAY.

THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO NR THE FRONT RANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE CWFA FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS. MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
FTR WITH THE ECMWF QUICKER AND STRONGER COMPARED TO THE GFS. HAVE
BOOSTED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS A RESULT MONDAY AFTERNOON
THRU TUESDAY NIGHT. PWAT VALUES RETURN TO VALUES SIMILAR THOSE SEEN
YESTERDAY. IF THIS PATTERN MATERIALIZES...THE COMBINATION OF THE
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AND SLOW STEERING FLOW WILL AGAIN HEIGHTEN AT
LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING LATE MONDAY THRU TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOMEWHAT AS THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN.
SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS DRY TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 322 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING FOR MOST
TERMINALS AS LOW STRATUS AND -RA CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE OVR THE WRN NEBRASKA LOCATIONS WHERE RAINS HAVE
BEEN MORE SPOTTY AND LIGHTER. ALTHOUGH LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING...EXPECT SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT BY
AROUND MIDDAY...THOUGH MVFR CIGS ARE STILL EXPECTED. THIS LOW
STRATUS WILL OBSCURE SOUTHEAST WYOMING MOUNTAINS TODAY. CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH A
RETURN TO VFR ANTICIPATED BY THIS EVENING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND THE WESTERN
NE PANHANDLE. ANOTHER HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. VERY COOL TODAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S AT CHEYENNE AND RAWLINS. COOLER CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH NEW MOISTURE WILL MITIGATE ANY NOTABLE FIRE WEATHER
HAZARDS. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...BUT AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TJT
SHORT TERM...HAMMER
LONG TERM...HAHN
AVIATION...HAHN
FIRE WEATHER...HAMMER










000
FXUS63 KUNR 301158
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
558 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE
RIDGE WILL INTERACT WITH MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME.

HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THIS MORNING
FOR A FEW SHOWERS CURRENTLY WORKING SOUTHWARD OVER CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY...HOWEVER A WEAK
SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL
SURFACE HEATING AND WEAK COOLING ALOFT TO CREATE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE SRN BLACK HILLS AND
THE ADJACENT AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND ALSO CLOSER TO
THE WAVE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CREATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA OVER
FAR NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE CHANCES
SPREADING SOUTHWARD OVER THE REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA DURING THE DAY AS DIURNAL HEATING AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER CAA
ALOFT COMBINE TO INCREASE THE INSTABILITY. DRY AIR WILL BE FOUND
OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING WITH THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
EXPECT TO FALL INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE THERE ON THURSDAY
AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

A PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD.
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...BUT MODELS
ARE INDICATING A GRADUAL BREAKDOWN AND SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVES
PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES THIS WEEKEND WITH A BETTER CHANCE DEVELOPING
BY MIDWEEK WHEN A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES BEFORE COOLING A FEW
DEGREES MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 556 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED -TSRA
MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD WITH LOCAL MVFR
CIGS IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...CARPENTER
AVIATION...CARPENTER







000
FXUS63 KUNR 301158
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
558 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE
RIDGE WILL INTERACT WITH MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME.

HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THIS MORNING
FOR A FEW SHOWERS CURRENTLY WORKING SOUTHWARD OVER CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY...HOWEVER A WEAK
SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL
SURFACE HEATING AND WEAK COOLING ALOFT TO CREATE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE SRN BLACK HILLS AND
THE ADJACENT AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND ALSO CLOSER TO
THE WAVE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CREATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA OVER
FAR NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE CHANCES
SPREADING SOUTHWARD OVER THE REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA DURING THE DAY AS DIURNAL HEATING AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER CAA
ALOFT COMBINE TO INCREASE THE INSTABILITY. DRY AIR WILL BE FOUND
OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING WITH THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
EXPECT TO FALL INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE THERE ON THURSDAY
AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

A PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD.
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...BUT MODELS
ARE INDICATING A GRADUAL BREAKDOWN AND SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVES
PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES THIS WEEKEND WITH A BETTER CHANCE DEVELOPING
BY MIDWEEK WHEN A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES BEFORE COOLING A FEW
DEGREES MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 556 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED -TSRA
MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD WITH LOCAL MVFR
CIGS IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...CARPENTER
AVIATION...CARPENTER







000
FXUS63 KUNR 301158
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
558 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE
RIDGE WILL INTERACT WITH MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME.

HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THIS MORNING
FOR A FEW SHOWERS CURRENTLY WORKING SOUTHWARD OVER CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY...HOWEVER A WEAK
SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL
SURFACE HEATING AND WEAK COOLING ALOFT TO CREATE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE SRN BLACK HILLS AND
THE ADJACENT AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND ALSO CLOSER TO
THE WAVE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CREATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA OVER
FAR NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE CHANCES
SPREADING SOUTHWARD OVER THE REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA DURING THE DAY AS DIURNAL HEATING AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER CAA
ALOFT COMBINE TO INCREASE THE INSTABILITY. DRY AIR WILL BE FOUND
OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING WITH THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
EXPECT TO FALL INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE THERE ON THURSDAY
AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

A PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD.
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...BUT MODELS
ARE INDICATING A GRADUAL BREAKDOWN AND SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVES
PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES THIS WEEKEND WITH A BETTER CHANCE DEVELOPING
BY MIDWEEK WHEN A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES BEFORE COOLING A FEW
DEGREES MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 556 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED -TSRA
MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD WITH LOCAL MVFR
CIGS IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...CARPENTER
AVIATION...CARPENTER







000
FXUS63 KUNR 301158
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
558 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE
RIDGE WILL INTERACT WITH MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME.

HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THIS MORNING
FOR A FEW SHOWERS CURRENTLY WORKING SOUTHWARD OVER CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY...HOWEVER A WEAK
SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL
SURFACE HEATING AND WEAK COOLING ALOFT TO CREATE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE SRN BLACK HILLS AND
THE ADJACENT AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND ALSO CLOSER TO
THE WAVE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CREATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA OVER
FAR NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE CHANCES
SPREADING SOUTHWARD OVER THE REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA DURING THE DAY AS DIURNAL HEATING AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER CAA
ALOFT COMBINE TO INCREASE THE INSTABILITY. DRY AIR WILL BE FOUND
OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING WITH THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
EXPECT TO FALL INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE THERE ON THURSDAY
AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

A PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD.
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...BUT MODELS
ARE INDICATING A GRADUAL BREAKDOWN AND SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVES
PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES THIS WEEKEND WITH A BETTER CHANCE DEVELOPING
BY MIDWEEK WHEN A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES BEFORE COOLING A FEW
DEGREES MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 556 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED -TSRA
MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD WITH LOCAL MVFR
CIGS IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...CARPENTER
AVIATION...CARPENTER







000
FXUS65 KCYS 300924
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
324 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

A LARGE AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
THIS AM WITH GOOD LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW MOVING TOWARD
THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM NORTHEAST CO...WITH ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE FROM SOUTHEAST WY INTO PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THIS SHOULD KEEP LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN GOING
FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. RAINFALL RATES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HAVE
BEEN BETWEEN ONE AND TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR...SO HAVE NOT
BEEN SEEING ANYTHING PARTICULARLY HEAVY. MODELED SOUNDINGS FOR CYS
HAVE SHOWN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN HEAVY RAIN PARAMETERS WITH PWAT
VALUES CLOSER TO 1 INCH AND THE K-INDEX UNDER 30 AS OF 08Z. MOST
IMPORTANTLY...AIR MASS IS NOW MUCH MORE STABLE THAN IT WAS ON TUE
AFTN AND EVE. THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED...SO
WILL DROP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH PRIOR TO ITS SCHEDULED EXPIRATION
AT 12Z THIS AM. UPSLOPE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY AFTN AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE LOST AS FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS SHIFT ACROSS
THE MIDWEST STATES AND MIDLVL PVA SPREADS INTO CO. SHOULD SEE THE
MAIN AREA OF PCPN GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE DAY. REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE GRIDS AS BOTH
THE GFS AND NAM SHOW VIRTUALLY NO CAPE THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT WILL
BE QUITE COOL TODAY...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND JUST E OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE WITH PERSISTENT UPSLOPE KEEPING IT CLOUDY AND WET THROUGH AT
LEAST PEAK HEATING. HIGHS AROUND 60 FOR CYS WOULD PUT US CLOSE TO
A RECORD LOW MAXIMUM OF 59 F FOR THIS DATE.

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. H7 TEMPS INCREASE ANOTHER 5
TO 8 DEG C THROUGH FRI AFTN PER BOTH THE GFS AND NAM...AND MODEST
MOISTURE ABOVE 700 MILLIBARS SHOULD YIELD PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON
THU AND FRI WITH UPPER 80S RETURNING TO THE PANHANDLE. NO FURTHER
SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED AS THE OVERALL PATTERN WOULD FAVOR ANY
ACTIVITY TO BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW A BIT
OF MIDLVL MOISTURE SPREADING ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE
ON FRI AFTN...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THAT. BELIEVE IT WILL REMAIN ISOLATED THOUGH GIVEN THE LACK
OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL FORCING MECHANISM...SO WENT AHEAD AND BROUGHT
POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LOCATED ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
AMPLIFY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BEFORE BEING FLATTENED AS THE
PATTERN TURNS MORE ACTIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER WITH THE AVAILABLE MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVR
THE WEEKEND. AS SUCH...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM
FROM LOWER ELEVATIONS...INSTEAD CONFINING ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ABOVE 7000 FEET OVR THE SNOWY/SIERRA
MADRE/SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGES. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
SUMMERTIME NORMS OVR THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE AXIS AND REFLECTED
THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE CWA. H7 TEMPERATURE PROGS CLIMB TO
AROUND 12C ON SATURDAY...AND TO AROUND 14C FOR SUNDAY. HIGHER VALUES
WILL BE FOUND OVR THE WRN CWA...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES EAST.
THE RESULT WILL BE FOR HIGH TEMPS TO REACH THE 70S AND 80S SATURDAY
AND 80S AND 90S FOR SUNDAY.

THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO NR THE FRONT RANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE CWFA FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS. MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
FTR WITH THE ECMWF QUICKER AND STRONGER COMPARED TO THE GFS. HAVE
BOOSTED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS A RESULT MONDAY AFTERNOON
THRU TUESDAY NIGHT. PWAT VALUES RETURN TO VALUES SIMILAR THOSE SEEN
YESTERDAY. IF THIS PATTERN MATERIALIZES...THE COMBINATION OF THE
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AND SLOW STEERING FLOW WILL AGAIN HEIGHTEN AT
LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING LATE MONDAY THRU TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOMEWHAT AS THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN.
SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS DRY TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 322 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING FOR MOST
TERMINALS AS LOW STRATUS AND -RA CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE OVR THE WRN NEBRASKA LOCATIONS WHERE RAINS HAVE
BEEN MORE SPOTTY AND LIGHTER. ALTHOUGH LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING...EXPECT SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT BY
AROUND MIDDAY...THOUGH MVFR CIGS ARE STILL EXPECTED. THIS LOW
STRATUS WILL OBSCURE SOUTHEAST WYOMING MOUNTAINS TODAY. CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH A
RETURN TO VFR ANTICIPATED BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND THE WESTERN
NE PANHANDLE. ANOTHER HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. VERY COOL TODAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S AT CHEYENNE AND RAWLINS. COOLER CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH NEW MOISTURE WILL MITIGATE ANY NOTABLE FIRE WEATHER
HAZARDS. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...BUT AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAMMER
LONG TERM...HAHN
AVIATION...HAHN
FIRE WEATHER...HAMMER




000
FXUS65 KCYS 300924
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
324 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

A LARGE AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
THIS AM WITH GOOD LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW MOVING TOWARD
THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM NORTHEAST CO...WITH ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE FROM SOUTHEAST WY INTO PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THIS SHOULD KEEP LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN GOING
FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. RAINFALL RATES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HAVE
BEEN BETWEEN ONE AND TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR...SO HAVE NOT
BEEN SEEING ANYTHING PARTICULARLY HEAVY. MODELED SOUNDINGS FOR CYS
HAVE SHOWN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN HEAVY RAIN PARAMETERS WITH PWAT
VALUES CLOSER TO 1 INCH AND THE K-INDEX UNDER 30 AS OF 08Z. MOST
IMPORTANTLY...AIR MASS IS NOW MUCH MORE STABLE THAN IT WAS ON TUE
AFTN AND EVE. THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED...SO
WILL DROP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH PRIOR TO ITS SCHEDULED EXPIRATION
AT 12Z THIS AM. UPSLOPE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY AFTN AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE LOST AS FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS SHIFT ACROSS
THE MIDWEST STATES AND MIDLVL PVA SPREADS INTO CO. SHOULD SEE THE
MAIN AREA OF PCPN GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE DAY. REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE GRIDS AS BOTH
THE GFS AND NAM SHOW VIRTUALLY NO CAPE THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT WILL
BE QUITE COOL TODAY...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND JUST E OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE WITH PERSISTENT UPSLOPE KEEPING IT CLOUDY AND WET THROUGH AT
LEAST PEAK HEATING. HIGHS AROUND 60 FOR CYS WOULD PUT US CLOSE TO
A RECORD LOW MAXIMUM OF 59 F FOR THIS DATE.

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. H7 TEMPS INCREASE ANOTHER 5
TO 8 DEG C THROUGH FRI AFTN PER BOTH THE GFS AND NAM...AND MODEST
MOISTURE ABOVE 700 MILLIBARS SHOULD YIELD PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON
THU AND FRI WITH UPPER 80S RETURNING TO THE PANHANDLE. NO FURTHER
SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED AS THE OVERALL PATTERN WOULD FAVOR ANY
ACTIVITY TO BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW A BIT
OF MIDLVL MOISTURE SPREADING ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE
ON FRI AFTN...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THAT. BELIEVE IT WILL REMAIN ISOLATED THOUGH GIVEN THE LACK
OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL FORCING MECHANISM...SO WENT AHEAD AND BROUGHT
POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LOCATED ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
AMPLIFY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BEFORE BEING FLATTENED AS THE
PATTERN TURNS MORE ACTIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER WITH THE AVAILABLE MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVR
THE WEEKEND. AS SUCH...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM
FROM LOWER ELEVATIONS...INSTEAD CONFINING ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ABOVE 7000 FEET OVR THE SNOWY/SIERRA
MADRE/SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGES. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
SUMMERTIME NORMS OVR THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE AXIS AND REFLECTED
THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE CWA. H7 TEMPERATURE PROGS CLIMB TO
AROUND 12C ON SATURDAY...AND TO AROUND 14C FOR SUNDAY. HIGHER VALUES
WILL BE FOUND OVR THE WRN CWA...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES EAST.
THE RESULT WILL BE FOR HIGH TEMPS TO REACH THE 70S AND 80S SATURDAY
AND 80S AND 90S FOR SUNDAY.

THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO NR THE FRONT RANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE CWFA FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS. MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
FTR WITH THE ECMWF QUICKER AND STRONGER COMPARED TO THE GFS. HAVE
BOOSTED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS A RESULT MONDAY AFTERNOON
THRU TUESDAY NIGHT. PWAT VALUES RETURN TO VALUES SIMILAR THOSE SEEN
YESTERDAY. IF THIS PATTERN MATERIALIZES...THE COMBINATION OF THE
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AND SLOW STEERING FLOW WILL AGAIN HEIGHTEN AT
LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING LATE MONDAY THRU TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOMEWHAT AS THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN.
SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS DRY TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 322 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING FOR MOST
TERMINALS AS LOW STRATUS AND -RA CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE OVR THE WRN NEBRASKA LOCATIONS WHERE RAINS HAVE
BEEN MORE SPOTTY AND LIGHTER. ALTHOUGH LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING...EXPECT SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT BY
AROUND MIDDAY...THOUGH MVFR CIGS ARE STILL EXPECTED. THIS LOW
STRATUS WILL OBSCURE SOUTHEAST WYOMING MOUNTAINS TODAY. CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH A
RETURN TO VFR ANTICIPATED BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND THE WESTERN
NE PANHANDLE. ANOTHER HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. VERY COOL TODAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S AT CHEYENNE AND RAWLINS. COOLER CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH NEW MOISTURE WILL MITIGATE ANY NOTABLE FIRE WEATHER
HAZARDS. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...BUT AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAMMER
LONG TERM...HAHN
AVIATION...HAHN
FIRE WEATHER...HAMMER





000
FXUS65 KRIW 300902
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
302 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

UPPER CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE OVER THE IDAHO/WY BORDER ACDG TO
SATL LOOP WITH THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER LINCOLN CO SW WY ACDG
TO RADAR. THESE CIRCULATIONS WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE
REMAINING STRATIFORM PRECIP BECOMES MORE FOCUSED PRIMARILY OVER
SWEETWATER AND SOUTHEAST NATRONA COUNTIES. THE UPPER CIRCULATION WILL
MAKE ITS WAY TO THE RED DESERT TODAY WITH THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
DRIFTING FROM NE UTAH TO NW CO. THE ASCT RAINFALL WILL EXIT SOUTHERN
WY AROUND MID DAY JUST AS FRESH CONVECTION FORMS OVER NORTHWEST WY
THIS AFTERNOON. THE PREVAILING SURFACE WIND WILL BE FROM THE EAST
NORTH OF THE LOW...ESPECIALLY OVER SWEETWATER COUNTY KEEPING US UNDER A
RELATIVELY MILD AND MOIST AIRMASS BUT WARMER THAN TUESDAY.
ON THURSDAY...MORE CONVECTION WILL FORM MAINLY IN NORTHWEST WY WHERE
THE BEST LIFTED INDICES/CAPES WILL BE. THEN ON FRIDAY ANOTHER WEAK UPPER
LOW WILL RIDE UP AND OVER THE STATIONARY RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND
IS PROGGED TO BE OVER NW WY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY AFT/EVE. TEMPS
WILL SLOWLY RECOVER DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK BUT WILL
REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGH TEMPS.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WEEKEND LOOKS TO START WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEARLY OVERHEAD WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FORECAST TO BE IN THE WESTERN AND
ESPECIALLY NWRN MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DRIFT ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTH. GFS DRIES OUT THE AIRMASS
SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY FOR MAINLY WRN MTN STORMS. EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS
QUITE INTERESTING AGAIN WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF DECENT RAINFALL AS
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST OF US OPENING THE DOOR FOR
INCREASING MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES. THE GFS HAS THE
MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE WEST MONDAY WITH SOME INCREASE EAST OF THE
DIVIDE BY EVENING. THE ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE HIGHER PW AIR OVER
THE ENTIRE CWFA MONDAY. THE GEM IS CLOSER IN TIMING TO THE GFS. ALL
THE MODELS SEEM TO BRING UP THE REMNANTS OF AN ELY WAVE ORIGINATING
ON THE BOTTOM OF THE 4-CORNERS HIGH FOR LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN BUT EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY MOIST AND UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF MORE
RAIN FOR A LARGE PART OF THE AREA. ECMWF IS SHOWING RAPID DRYING
TUESDAY IN A NW FLOW AS THE RIDGE REDEVELOPS TO OUR WEST. THE GFS IS
SLOWER TO DEVELOP THE NW FLOW...MORE WNW YET TUESDAY...WITH THE
REMNANT WAVE STILL HANGING OVER THE ERN PART OF THE AREA. STICKING
WITH SCT POPS YET TUESDAY BEFORE SOME DRYING OCCURS WEDNESDAY WITH
SCT POPS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND GENERALLY ISOLATED ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. DEPENDING ON EXACT TIMING THE WARMEST DAYS LOOK TO
BE SUNDAY AND POTENTIALLY MONDAY IF THE SLOWER MONSOONAL GFS TIMING
OCCURS. COOLER WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PCPN THEN TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY REBOUND SOME WEDNESDAY BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY ONGOING THIS MORNING...MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN LINCOLN AND SWEETWATER COUNTIES...WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
TO ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY BY AROUND 15/16Z. BEFORE THEN...WIDESPREAD
MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THIS AREA IMPACTING
KRKS. FARTHER NORTH...THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE PATCHY FOG
IMPACTING TERMINALS WHERE RAIN FELL YESTERDAY. ANY FOG IS EXPECTED
TO LIFT/DISSIPATE BY AROUND 15/16Z. IN THE AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TO
LOCALLY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL MAINLY OCCUR OVER THE WEST AND
SOUTH. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE FAR WEST AND WILL HAVE
VCTS ONLY AT JAC TERMINAL FOR NOW...WITH VCSH OVER THE REST OF THE
TERMINALS WEST OF THE DIVIDE. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION EAST OF THE DIVIDE...COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO HAVE EVEN VCSH. DURING THE EVENING...CONVECTION SHOULD
QUICKLY WANE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT EASTERLY IN MOST AREAS
TODAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BREEZY EAST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS
SWEETWATER COUNTY IMPACTING KRKS. ONE SIDE NOTE...FOG IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OVER WYOMING THIS MORNING WITH SMALL
DP/TEMP SPREADS AS A RESULT OF THE WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
TUE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL EXIT SWEETWATER COUNTY
TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING. SOON AFTERWARD...WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT EAST WINDS 15 TO 30 MPH TODAY ACROSS ZONE 279. THURSDAY
WILL BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN WYOMING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
RIDE UP AND OVER THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE
ROCKIES FRIDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY WITH THE MOST NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED OVER
WESTERN WY AS FAR EAST AS THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE CENTRAL BASINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RECOVER DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK BUT WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON










000
FXUS65 KRIW 300902
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
302 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

UPPER CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE OVER THE IDAHO/WY BORDER ACDG TO
SATL LOOP WITH THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER LINCOLN CO SW WY ACDG
TO RADAR. THESE CIRCULATIONS WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE
REMAINING STRATIFORM PRECIP BECOMES MORE FOCUSED PRIMARILY OVER
SWEETWATER AND SOUTHEAST NATRONA COUNTIES. THE UPPER CIRCULATION WILL
MAKE ITS WAY TO THE RED DESERT TODAY WITH THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
DRIFTING FROM NE UTAH TO NW CO. THE ASCT RAINFALL WILL EXIT SOUTHERN
WY AROUND MID DAY JUST AS FRESH CONVECTION FORMS OVER NORTHWEST WY
THIS AFTERNOON. THE PREVAILING SURFACE WIND WILL BE FROM THE EAST
NORTH OF THE LOW...ESPECIALLY OVER SWEETWATER COUNTY KEEPING US UNDER A
RELATIVELY MILD AND MOIST AIRMASS BUT WARMER THAN TUESDAY.
ON THURSDAY...MORE CONVECTION WILL FORM MAINLY IN NORTHWEST WY WHERE
THE BEST LIFTED INDICES/CAPES WILL BE. THEN ON FRIDAY ANOTHER WEAK UPPER
LOW WILL RIDE UP AND OVER THE STATIONARY RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND
IS PROGGED TO BE OVER NW WY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY AFT/EVE. TEMPS
WILL SLOWLY RECOVER DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK BUT WILL
REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGH TEMPS.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WEEKEND LOOKS TO START WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEARLY OVERHEAD WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FORECAST TO BE IN THE WESTERN AND
ESPECIALLY NWRN MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DRIFT ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTH. GFS DRIES OUT THE AIRMASS
SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY FOR MAINLY WRN MTN STORMS. EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS
QUITE INTERESTING AGAIN WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF DECENT RAINFALL AS
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST OF US OPENING THE DOOR FOR
INCREASING MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES. THE GFS HAS THE
MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE WEST MONDAY WITH SOME INCREASE EAST OF THE
DIVIDE BY EVENING. THE ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE HIGHER PW AIR OVER
THE ENTIRE CWFA MONDAY. THE GEM IS CLOSER IN TIMING TO THE GFS. ALL
THE MODELS SEEM TO BRING UP THE REMNANTS OF AN ELY WAVE ORIGINATING
ON THE BOTTOM OF THE 4-CORNERS HIGH FOR LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN BUT EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY MOIST AND UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF MORE
RAIN FOR A LARGE PART OF THE AREA. ECMWF IS SHOWING RAPID DRYING
TUESDAY IN A NW FLOW AS THE RIDGE REDEVELOPS TO OUR WEST. THE GFS IS
SLOWER TO DEVELOP THE NW FLOW...MORE WNW YET TUESDAY...WITH THE
REMNANT WAVE STILL HANGING OVER THE ERN PART OF THE AREA. STICKING
WITH SCT POPS YET TUESDAY BEFORE SOME DRYING OCCURS WEDNESDAY WITH
SCT POPS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND GENERALLY ISOLATED ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. DEPENDING ON EXACT TIMING THE WARMEST DAYS LOOK TO
BE SUNDAY AND POTENTIALLY MONDAY IF THE SLOWER MONSOONAL GFS TIMING
OCCURS. COOLER WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PCPN THEN TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY REBOUND SOME WEDNESDAY BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY ONGOING THIS MORNING...MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN LINCOLN AND SWEETWATER COUNTIES...WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
TO ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY BY AROUND 15/16Z. BEFORE THEN...WIDESPREAD
MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THIS AREA IMPACTING
KRKS. FARTHER NORTH...THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE PATCHY FOG
IMPACTING TERMINALS WHERE RAIN FELL YESTERDAY. ANY FOG IS EXPECTED
TO LIFT/DISSIPATE BY AROUND 15/16Z. IN THE AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TO
LOCALLY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL MAINLY OCCUR OVER THE WEST AND
SOUTH. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE FAR WEST AND WILL HAVE
VCTS ONLY AT JAC TERMINAL FOR NOW...WITH VCSH OVER THE REST OF THE
TERMINALS WEST OF THE DIVIDE. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION EAST OF THE DIVIDE...COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO HAVE EVEN VCSH. DURING THE EVENING...CONVECTION SHOULD
QUICKLY WANE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT EASTERLY IN MOST AREAS
TODAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BREEZY EAST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS
SWEETWATER COUNTY IMPACTING KRKS. ONE SIDE NOTE...FOG IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OVER WYOMING THIS MORNING WITH SMALL
DP/TEMP SPREADS AS A RESULT OF THE WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
TUE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL EXIT SWEETWATER COUNTY
TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING. SOON AFTERWARD...WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT EAST WINDS 15 TO 30 MPH TODAY ACROSS ZONE 279. THURSDAY
WILL BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN WYOMING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
RIDE UP AND OVER THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE
ROCKIES FRIDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY WITH THE MOST NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED OVER
WESTERN WY AS FAR EAST AS THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE CENTRAL BASINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RECOVER DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK BUT WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON










000
FXUS65 KRIW 300902
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
302 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

UPPER CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE OVER THE IDAHO/WY BORDER ACDG TO
SATL LOOP WITH THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER LINCOLN CO SW WY ACDG
TO RADAR. THESE CIRCULATIONS WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE
REMAINING STRATIFORM PRECIP BECOMES MORE FOCUSED PRIMARILY OVER
SWEETWATER AND SOUTHEAST NATRONA COUNTIES. THE UPPER CIRCULATION WILL
MAKE ITS WAY TO THE RED DESERT TODAY WITH THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
DRIFTING FROM NE UTAH TO NW CO. THE ASCT RAINFALL WILL EXIT SOUTHERN
WY AROUND MID DAY JUST AS FRESH CONVECTION FORMS OVER NORTHWEST WY
THIS AFTERNOON. THE PREVAILING SURFACE WIND WILL BE FROM THE EAST
NORTH OF THE LOW...ESPECIALLY OVER SWEETWATER COUNTY KEEPING US UNDER A
RELATIVELY MILD AND MOIST AIRMASS BUT WARMER THAN TUESDAY.
ON THURSDAY...MORE CONVECTION WILL FORM MAINLY IN NORTHWEST WY WHERE
THE BEST LIFTED INDICES/CAPES WILL BE. THEN ON FRIDAY ANOTHER WEAK UPPER
LOW WILL RIDE UP AND OVER THE STATIONARY RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND
IS PROGGED TO BE OVER NW WY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY AFT/EVE. TEMPS
WILL SLOWLY RECOVER DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK BUT WILL
REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGH TEMPS.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WEEKEND LOOKS TO START WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEARLY OVERHEAD WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FORECAST TO BE IN THE WESTERN AND
ESPECIALLY NWRN MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DRIFT ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTH. GFS DRIES OUT THE AIRMASS
SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY FOR MAINLY WRN MTN STORMS. EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS
QUITE INTERESTING AGAIN WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF DECENT RAINFALL AS
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST OF US OPENING THE DOOR FOR
INCREASING MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES. THE GFS HAS THE
MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE WEST MONDAY WITH SOME INCREASE EAST OF THE
DIVIDE BY EVENING. THE ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE HIGHER PW AIR OVER
THE ENTIRE CWFA MONDAY. THE GEM IS CLOSER IN TIMING TO THE GFS. ALL
THE MODELS SEEM TO BRING UP THE REMNANTS OF AN ELY WAVE ORIGINATING
ON THE BOTTOM OF THE 4-CORNERS HIGH FOR LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN BUT EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY MOIST AND UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF MORE
RAIN FOR A LARGE PART OF THE AREA. ECMWF IS SHOWING RAPID DRYING
TUESDAY IN A NW FLOW AS THE RIDGE REDEVELOPS TO OUR WEST. THE GFS IS
SLOWER TO DEVELOP THE NW FLOW...MORE WNW YET TUESDAY...WITH THE
REMNANT WAVE STILL HANGING OVER THE ERN PART OF THE AREA. STICKING
WITH SCT POPS YET TUESDAY BEFORE SOME DRYING OCCURS WEDNESDAY WITH
SCT POPS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND GENERALLY ISOLATED ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. DEPENDING ON EXACT TIMING THE WARMEST DAYS LOOK TO
BE SUNDAY AND POTENTIALLY MONDAY IF THE SLOWER MONSOONAL GFS TIMING
OCCURS. COOLER WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PCPN THEN TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY REBOUND SOME WEDNESDAY BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY ONGOING THIS MORNING...MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN LINCOLN AND SWEETWATER COUNTIES...WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
TO ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY BY AROUND 15/16Z. BEFORE THEN...WIDESPREAD
MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THIS AREA IMPACTING
KRKS. FARTHER NORTH...THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE PATCHY FOG
IMPACTING TERMINALS WHERE RAIN FELL YESTERDAY. ANY FOG IS EXPECTED
TO LIFT/DISSIPATE BY AROUND 15/16Z. IN THE AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TO
LOCALLY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL MAINLY OCCUR OVER THE WEST AND
SOUTH. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE FAR WEST AND WILL HAVE
VCTS ONLY AT JAC TERMINAL FOR NOW...WITH VCSH OVER THE REST OF THE
TERMINALS WEST OF THE DIVIDE. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION EAST OF THE DIVIDE...COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO HAVE EVEN VCSH. DURING THE EVENING...CONVECTION SHOULD
QUICKLY WANE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT EASTERLY IN MOST AREAS
TODAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BREEZY EAST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS
SWEETWATER COUNTY IMPACTING KRKS. ONE SIDE NOTE...FOG IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OVER WYOMING THIS MORNING WITH SMALL
DP/TEMP SPREADS AS A RESULT OF THE WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
TUE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL EXIT SWEETWATER COUNTY
TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING. SOON AFTERWARD...WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT EAST WINDS 15 TO 30 MPH TODAY ACROSS ZONE 279. THURSDAY
WILL BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN WYOMING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
RIDE UP AND OVER THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE
ROCKIES FRIDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY WITH THE MOST NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED OVER
WESTERN WY AS FAR EAST AS THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE CENTRAL BASINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RECOVER DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK BUT WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON










000
FXUS65 KRIW 300902
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
302 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

UPPER CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE OVER THE IDAHO/WY BORDER ACDG TO
SATL LOOP WITH THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER LINCOLN CO SW WY ACDG
TO RADAR. THESE CIRCULATIONS WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE
REMAINING STRATIFORM PRECIP BECOMES MORE FOCUSED PRIMARILY OVER
SWEETWATER AND SOUTHEAST NATRONA COUNTIES. THE UPPER CIRCULATION WILL
MAKE ITS WAY TO THE RED DESERT TODAY WITH THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
DRIFTING FROM NE UTAH TO NW CO. THE ASCT RAINFALL WILL EXIT SOUTHERN
WY AROUND MID DAY JUST AS FRESH CONVECTION FORMS OVER NORTHWEST WY
THIS AFTERNOON. THE PREVAILING SURFACE WIND WILL BE FROM THE EAST
NORTH OF THE LOW...ESPECIALLY OVER SWEETWATER COUNTY KEEPING US UNDER A
RELATIVELY MILD AND MOIST AIRMASS BUT WARMER THAN TUESDAY.
ON THURSDAY...MORE CONVECTION WILL FORM MAINLY IN NORTHWEST WY WHERE
THE BEST LIFTED INDICES/CAPES WILL BE. THEN ON FRIDAY ANOTHER WEAK UPPER
LOW WILL RIDE UP AND OVER THE STATIONARY RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND
IS PROGGED TO BE OVER NW WY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY AFT/EVE. TEMPS
WILL SLOWLY RECOVER DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK BUT WILL
REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGH TEMPS.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WEEKEND LOOKS TO START WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEARLY OVERHEAD WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FORECAST TO BE IN THE WESTERN AND
ESPECIALLY NWRN MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DRIFT ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTH. GFS DRIES OUT THE AIRMASS
SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY FOR MAINLY WRN MTN STORMS. EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS
QUITE INTERESTING AGAIN WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF DECENT RAINFALL AS
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST OF US OPENING THE DOOR FOR
INCREASING MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES. THE GFS HAS THE
MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE WEST MONDAY WITH SOME INCREASE EAST OF THE
DIVIDE BY EVENING. THE ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE HIGHER PW AIR OVER
THE ENTIRE CWFA MONDAY. THE GEM IS CLOSER IN TIMING TO THE GFS. ALL
THE MODELS SEEM TO BRING UP THE REMNANTS OF AN ELY WAVE ORIGINATING
ON THE BOTTOM OF THE 4-CORNERS HIGH FOR LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN BUT EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY MOIST AND UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF MORE
RAIN FOR A LARGE PART OF THE AREA. ECMWF IS SHOWING RAPID DRYING
TUESDAY IN A NW FLOW AS THE RIDGE REDEVELOPS TO OUR WEST. THE GFS IS
SLOWER TO DEVELOP THE NW FLOW...MORE WNW YET TUESDAY...WITH THE
REMNANT WAVE STILL HANGING OVER THE ERN PART OF THE AREA. STICKING
WITH SCT POPS YET TUESDAY BEFORE SOME DRYING OCCURS WEDNESDAY WITH
SCT POPS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND GENERALLY ISOLATED ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. DEPENDING ON EXACT TIMING THE WARMEST DAYS LOOK TO
BE SUNDAY AND POTENTIALLY MONDAY IF THE SLOWER MONSOONAL GFS TIMING
OCCURS. COOLER WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PCPN THEN TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY REBOUND SOME WEDNESDAY BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY ONGOING THIS MORNING...MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN LINCOLN AND SWEETWATER COUNTIES...WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
TO ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY BY AROUND 15/16Z. BEFORE THEN...WIDESPREAD
MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THIS AREA IMPACTING
KRKS. FARTHER NORTH...THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE PATCHY FOG
IMPACTING TERMINALS WHERE RAIN FELL YESTERDAY. ANY FOG IS EXPECTED
TO LIFT/DISSIPATE BY AROUND 15/16Z. IN THE AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TO
LOCALLY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL MAINLY OCCUR OVER THE WEST AND
SOUTH. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE FAR WEST AND WILL HAVE
VCTS ONLY AT JAC TERMINAL FOR NOW...WITH VCSH OVER THE REST OF THE
TERMINALS WEST OF THE DIVIDE. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION EAST OF THE DIVIDE...COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO HAVE EVEN VCSH. DURING THE EVENING...CONVECTION SHOULD
QUICKLY WANE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT EASTERLY IN MOST AREAS
TODAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BREEZY EAST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS
SWEETWATER COUNTY IMPACTING KRKS. ONE SIDE NOTE...FOG IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OVER WYOMING THIS MORNING WITH SMALL
DP/TEMP SPREADS AS A RESULT OF THE WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
TUE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL EXIT SWEETWATER COUNTY
TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING. SOON AFTERWARD...WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT EAST WINDS 15 TO 30 MPH TODAY ACROSS ZONE 279. THURSDAY
WILL BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN WYOMING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
RIDE UP AND OVER THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE
ROCKIES FRIDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY WITH THE MOST NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED OVER
WESTERN WY AS FAR EAST AS THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE CENTRAL BASINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RECOVER DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK BUT WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON










000
FXUS63 KUNR 300822
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
222 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE
RIDGE WILL INTERACT WITH MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME.

HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THIS MORNING
FOR A FEW SHOWERS CURRENTLY WORKING SOUTHWARD OVER CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY...HOWEVER A WEAK
SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL
SURFACE HEATING AND WEAK COOLING ALOFT TO CREATE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE SRN BLACK HILLS AND
THE ADJACENT AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND ALSO CLOSER TO
THE WAVE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CREATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA OVER
FAR NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE CHANCES
SPREADING SOUTHWARD OVER THE REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA DURING THE DAY AS DIURNAL HEATING AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER CAA
ALOFT COMBINE TO INCREASE THE INSTABILITY. DRY AIR WILL BE FOUND
OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING WITH THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
EXPECT TO FALL INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE THERE ON THURSDAY
AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

A PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD.
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...BUT MODELS
ARE INDICATING A GRADUAL BREAKDOWN AND SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVES
PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES THIS WEEKEND WITH A BETTER CHANCE DEVELOPING
BY MIDWEEK WHEN A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES BEFORE COOLING A FEW
DEGREES MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014


VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS
PASS OVERHEAD. ISOLATED -TSRA MAY DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL SD WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...CARPENTER
AVIATION...CARPENTER






    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities