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000
FXUS65 KRIW 230528
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1128 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

A DRY STABLE CONFLUENT FLOW HAS ENSUED OVER THE AREA AS TUESDAYS
TROUGH EXITS THE AREA AND A FLATTENING RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST. THE TREND THROUGH THU WILL BE FOR INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW
AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE FLATTENING RIDGE AND THE CLOSED
LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA CHURNS OUT ANOTHER CLOSED LOW EAST
ACROSS CANADA AND SLINGS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TOWARD THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...AND AT THE SAME TIME A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASING WEST WINDS WILL RESPOND TO
THIS SET UP... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST SLOPE OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN WIND CORRIDOR. IN ADDITION...WEST
WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE AREA NORTH OF CODY
BY LATE THU AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY AROUND CLARK AS A POTENTIAL MTN
WAVE...ALBEIT RELATIVELY WEAK...DEVELOPS. A FROUDE NUMBER OF 1 BY
00Z FRI IN THAT AREA AS WELL AS A PROGGED CRITICAL LAYER ABOVE THE
ABSAROKA MTNS REFLECTS THIS NOTION. IN ADDITION...THE WEST
SOUTHWEST DIFLUENT FLOW WILL RESULT IN ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE FAR NW MTNS LATE THU. SOUTHWEST WEST WINDS HAVE ALREADY KICKED
IN ALONG THE SOUTHERN WIND CORRIDOR FROM THE GREEN MTNS TO KCPR.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THU. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER EVERYWHERE THU AS THE COOL AIR BEHIND
WEDNESDAYS TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

POTENTIAL MOUNTAIN WAVE EVENT TO START THIS PERIOD IN THE CODY
FOOTHILLS AS POTENTIALLY FAVORABLE MOUNTAIN TOP CONDITIONS COMBINE
WITH APPROACHING RIGHT FRONT QUAD OF 150KT+ UPPER JET AND MODERATE
GAP FLOW SIGNATURE. NAM12 IS PICKING UP A PERIOD OF UPSTREAM
MOUNTAIN TOP INVERSION AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE WRF
CROSS SECTION IS SHOWING A PERIOD IN THE EVENING THURSDAY OF
POTENTIAL FLOW REVERSAL OR AT LEAST POTENTIAL FOR WAVE INDUCED
CRITICAL LAYER. FROUDE CALCULATIONS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT ARE PRETTY
CONSISTENT IN THE 1 RANGE. WRF BOUNDARY LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE ON THE FLATS BUT GET OVER 50KTS NEAR THE STEEP TERRAIN.
POTENTIAL IS GREAT ENOUGH TO AT LEAST GET THE WATCH OUT AS THERE ARE
ENOUGH FEATURES THAT COULD CAUSE THIS TO BE A DECENT EVENT. THE LOW
END WOULD PROBABLY PRODUCE NEAR OR AT HIGH WINDS FOR THE GAPS AND
WEST SIDE OF CLARK WHILE THE HIGH END WOULD RESULT IN A WAVE
BREAKING MOUNTAIN WAVE EVENT WITH WINDS WELL OVER 60 MPH WITH
POTENTIAL FOR 80 MPH PLUS. MOIST PLUME APPROACHES ABOUT THE SAME
TIME WITH OUR APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL PROBABLY CLIP
THE NWRN CORNER WITH A LITTLE LIGHT PCPN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE RIDGING PUSHES IT NORTH INTO MT. SHALLOW FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL EXPECTED TO SIT ACROSS THE NORTH FRIDAY FOR A SLIGHT
TEMPERING OF TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO AREAS JUST TO THE SOUTH.
SATURDAY LOOKS WARM AND DRY WITH INCREASING SW WIND.

ERN PACIFIC TROUGH THEN OPENS UP AND MOVES INLAND ACROSS US SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY WITH MODELS VARYING ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SECONDARY
BACK SIDE SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT/MON MRNG. AIRMASS STILL LOOKS COLD
ENOUGH FOR POTENTIAL LIGHT SNOW IN CENTRAL WYO LATER SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING WHERE PCPN FALLS. DECENT SHOT OF RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH A COUPLE TO SEVERAL
INCHES QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. BRIEF RIDGING WITH
TEMPERATURES RECOVERING SOME TUESDAY BEFORE POTENTIAL SEWD MOVING
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS
STRUGGLING WITH THE PATTERN CHANGE AND MOVEMENT OF SEVERAL KEY UPPER
LOWS OVER ASIA BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES COULD BE
IN THE OFFING JUST BEYOND THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. HOW IT ALL
EVOLVES AND THE EXACT TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN...MOST LIKELY
BETWEEN HALLOWEEN AND THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF NOVEMBER. NOTHING
CERTAIN YET.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD WILL BE CONSIDERABLE
MOUNTAIN TURBULENCE...AS WELL AS LLWS ESPECIALLY ON THE LEE SIDE OF
THE ABSAROKA AND WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS INCLUDING COD AND LND
TERMINALS AT TIMES. VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT AREA
TERMINALS WITH ONLY MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERSPREADING THE AREA
THROUGH 12Z AND THEN REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THERE COULD BE SOME CONVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT NW OF A KJAC-KCOD
LINE...BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND REMAIN AWAY
FROM THE TERMINALS.

PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON
TURBULENCE FORECASTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

TEMPERATURES REBOUND A BIT ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE SOUTH BUT IT WILL BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IN SPOTS WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH COMMON BETWEEN ROCK SPRINGS AND
CASPER AND OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ON THURSDAY NIGHT WEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE AREA AROUND CLARK NORTH OF
CODY.SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS ON FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS REMAINING. THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS OVER 25 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON BETWEEN RAWLINS AND SOUTHERN CASPER DISPATCH BUT MOST
AREAS WILL HAVE RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
WYZ003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON










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000
FXUS63 KUNR 230422
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1022 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER TROF AXIS PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH WEAK RIDGING MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. CLOUDY SKIES
HAVE SHIFTED EAST WITH SUNNY SKIES TAKING OVER. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT 2 PM ARE IN THE 50S AND
60S...AND THE WINDS ARE OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST.

UPPER RIDGE RETURNS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S TONIGHT...AND WARMING INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S ON
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHORTWAVE AHEAD
OF THE MAIN TROF AND COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
THROUGH MONDAY. THE MAIN UPPER TROF EXITS THE AREA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...PUSHING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK RIDGING THEN RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1022 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...JC






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000
FXUS65 KCYS 230243
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
843 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 838 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WITH
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS FROM CENTRAL MT THROUGH EASTERN ID. UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE WAS STREAMING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS WY AND WESTERN
NE. FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY BASED
ON SATELLITE TRENDS. FIRST PERIOD WINDS AND TEMPERATURES ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. RADAR
CURRENTLY SHOWING SOME ECHOS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. VERY LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND. MAINLY
VIRGA WITH A FEW SPRINKLES HERE AND THERE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIE
OFF BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOST OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING TONIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...ALONG WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
JET. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE
UPPER DYNAMICS TOMORROW BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO
AFFECT VIEWING THE OF SOLAR ECLIPSE IN THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE
WINDY IN THE WEST AND BREEZY IN THE EAST FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BUT NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY. IF ANYTHING CLOUD COVER MAY
SOMEWHAT INHIBIT STRONGER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THAT WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE AREA. GFS AND
EC HAVE THE SAME GENERAL IDEA ALTHOUGH THE EC IS SLIGHTLY FASTER
BRINGING IN COOLER AIR. THIS WILL BE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR TO
REACH THE FORECAST AREA IN SEVERAL WEEK BUT STILL ONLY LOOKING
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF
OCTOBER. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL.
CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL MAINLY BE FOUND OVER THE MOUNTAINS. 3 TO 6
INCHES MIGHT BE A GOOD BET FOR THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES
AT THIS TIME BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY MEASURABLE SNOW OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS.

THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THE TROUGH PUSHES EAST OF
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. EC IS MUCH MORE OPTIMIST WITH ANOTHER
LARGE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE ROCKIES. THE GFS SUGGEST ZONAL FLOW
WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS.
THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER
INTO MID NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WILL WATCH
THE MODEL TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW RUNS TO GET A BETTER IDEA FOR
NEXT WEEKS WEATHER PATTERN SET UP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 520 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE PERIOD...WITH SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT WILL BECOME BREEZY FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER THURSDAY MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN NE...WITH
GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 153 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND. DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE TODAY AND
THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA...BUT WINDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES ARE
EXPECTED BY LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAMSKI
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...JAMSKI
FIRE WEATHER...TJT








000
FXUS65 KCYS 222323
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
523 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. RADAR
CURRENTLY SHOWING SOME ECHOS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. VERY LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND. MAINLY
VIRGA WITH A FEW SPRINKLES HERE AND THERE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIE
OFF BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOST OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING TONIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...ALONG WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
JET. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE
UPPER DYNAMICS TOMORROW BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO
AFFECT VIEWING THE OF SOLAR ECLIPSE IN THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE
WINDY IN THE WEST AND BREEZY IN THE EAST FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BUT NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY. IF ANYTHING CLOUD COVER MAY
SOMEWHAT INHIBIT STRONGER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THAT WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE AREA. GFS AND
EC HAVE THE SAME GENERAL IDEA ALTHOUGH THE EC IS SLIGHTLY FASTER
BRINGING IN COOLER AIR. THIS WILL BE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR TO
REACH THE FORECAST AREA IN SEVERAL WEEK BUT STILL ONLY LOOKING
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF
OCTOBER. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL.
CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL MAINLY BE FOUND OVER THE MOUNTAINS. 3 TO 6
INCHES MIGHT BE A GOOD BET FOR THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES
AT THIS TIME BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY MEASURABLE SNOW OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS.

THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THE TROUGH PUSHES EAST OF
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. EC IS MUCH MORE OPTIMIST WITH ANOTHER
LARGE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE ROCKIES. THE GFS SUGGEST ZONAL FLOW
WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS.
THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER
INTO MID NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WILL WATCH
THE MODEL TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW RUNS TO GET A BETTER IDEA FOR
NEXT WEEKS WEATHER PATTERN SET UP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 520 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE PERIOD...WITH SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT WILL BECOME BREEZY FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER THURSDAY MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN NE...WITH
GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 153 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND. DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE TODAY AND
THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA...BUT WINDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES ARE
EXPECTED BY LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...JAMSKI
FIRE WEATHER...TJT






000
FXUS63 KUNR 222315
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
515 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER TROF AXIS PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH WEAK RIDGING MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. CLOUDY SKIES
HAVE SHIFTED EAST WITH SUNNY SKIES TAKING OVER. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT 2 PM ARE IN THE 50S AND
60S...AND THE WINDS ARE OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST.

UPPER RIDGE RETURNS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S TONIGHT...AND WARMING INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S ON
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST.


&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHORTWAVE AHEAD
OF THE MAIN TROF AND COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
THROUGH MONDAY. THE MAIN UPPER TROF EXITS THE AREA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...PUSHING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK RIDGING THEN RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 513 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...JC







000
FXUS63 KUNR 222315
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
515 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER TROF AXIS PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH WEAK RIDGING MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. CLOUDY SKIES
HAVE SHIFTED EAST WITH SUNNY SKIES TAKING OVER. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT 2 PM ARE IN THE 50S AND
60S...AND THE WINDS ARE OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST.

UPPER RIDGE RETURNS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S TONIGHT...AND WARMING INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S ON
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST.


&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHORTWAVE AHEAD
OF THE MAIN TROF AND COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
THROUGH MONDAY. THE MAIN UPPER TROF EXITS THE AREA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...PUSHING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK RIDGING THEN RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 513 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...JC







000
FXUS65 KCYS 222153
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
353 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. RADAR
CURRENTLY SHOWING SOME ECHOS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. VERY LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND. MAINLY
VIRGA WITH A FEW SPRINKLES HERE AND THERE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIE
OFF BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOST OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING TONIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...ALONG WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
JET. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE
UPPER DYNAMICS TOMORROW BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO
AFFECT VIEWING THE OF SOLAR ECLIPSE IN THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE
WINDY IN THE WEST AND BREEZY IN THE EAST FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BUT NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY. IF ANYTHING CLOUD COVER MAY
SOMEWHAT INHIBIT STRONGER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THAT WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE AREA. GFS AND
EC HAVE THE SAME GENERAL IDEA ALTHOUGH THE EC IS SLIGHTLY FASTER
BRINGING IN COOLER AIR. THIS WILL BE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR TO
REACH THE FORECAST AREA IN SEVERAL WEEK BUT STILL ONLY LOOKING
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF
OCTOBER. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL.
CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL MAINLY BE FOUND OVER THE MOUNTAINS. 3 TO 6
INCHES MIGHT BE A GOOD BET FOR THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES
AT THIS TIME BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY MEASURABLE SNOW OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS.

THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THE TROUGH PUSHES EAST OF
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. EC IS MUCH MORE OPTIMIST WITH ANOTHER
LARGE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE ROCKIES. THE GFS SUGGEST ZONAL FLOW
WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS.
THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER
INTO MID NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WILL WATCH
THE MODLES TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW RUNS TO GET A BETTER IDEA FOR
NEXT WEEKS WEATHER PATTERN SET UP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

NO BIG AVIATION CONCERNS TONIGHT OR THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...SML







000
FXUS65 KRIW 222058
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
258 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

A DRY STABLE CONFLUENT FLOW HAS ENSUED OVER THE AREA AS TUESDAYS
TROUGH EXITS THE AREA AND A FLATTENING RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST. THE TREND THROUGH THU WILL BE FOR INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW
AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE FLATTENING RIDGE AND THE CLOSED
LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA CHURNS OUT ANOTHER CLOSED LOW EAST
ACROSS CANADA AND SLINGS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TOWARD THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...AND AT THE SAME TIME A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASING WEST WINDS WILL RESPOND TO
THIS SET UP... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST SLOPE OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN WIND CORRIDOR. IN ADDITION...WEST
WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE AREA NORTH OF CODY
BY LATE THU AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY AROUND CLARK AS A POTENTIAL MTN
WAVE...ALBEIT RELATIVELY WEAK...DEVELOPS. A FROUDE NUMBER OF 1 BY
00Z FRI IN THAT AREA AS WELL AS A PROGGED CRITICAL LAYER ABOVE THE
ABSAROKA MTNS REFLECTS THIS NOTION. IN ADDITION...THE WEST
SOUTHWEST DIFLUENT FLOW WILL RESULT IN ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE FAR NW MTNS LATE THU. SOUTHWEST WEST WINDS HAVE ALREADY KICKED
IN ALONG THE SOUTHERN WIND CORRIDOR FROM THE GREEN MTNS TO KCPR.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THU. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER EVERYWHERE THU AS THE COOL AIR BEHIND
WEDNESDAYS TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

POTENTIAL MOUNTAIN WAVE EVENT TO START THIS PERIOD IN THE CODY
FOOTHILLS AS POTENTIALLY FAVORABLE MOUNTAIN TOP CONDITIONS COMBINE
WITH APPROACHING RIGHT FRONT QUAD OF 150KT+ UPPER JET AND MODERATE
GAP FLOW SIGNATURE. NAM12 IS PICKING UP A PERIOD OF UPSTREAM
MOUNTAIN TOP INVERSION AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE WRF
CROSS SECTION IS SHOWING A PERIOD IN THE EVENING THURSDAY OF
POTENTIAL FLOW REVERSAL OR AT LEAST POTENTIAL FOR WAVE INDUCED
CRITICAL LAYER. FROUDE CALCULATIONS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT ARE PRETTY
CONSISTENT IN THE 1 RANGE. WRF BOUNDARY LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE ON THE FLATS BUT GET OVER 50KTS NEAR THE STEEP TERRAIN.
POTENTIAL IS GREAT ENOUGH TO AT LEAST GET THE WATCH OUT AS THERE ARE
ENOUGH FEATURES THAT COULD CAUSE THIS TO BE A DECENT EVENT. THE LOW
END WOULD PROBABLY PRODUCE NEAR OR AT HIGH WINDS FOR THE GAPS AND
WEST SIDE OF CLARK WHILE THE HIGH END WOULD RESULT IN A WAVE
BREAKING MOUNTAIN WAVE EVENT WITH WINDS WELL OVER 60 MPH WITH
POTENTIAL FOR 80 MPH PLUS. MOIST PLUME APPROACHES ABOUT THE SAME
TIME WITH OUR APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL PROBABLY CLIP
THE NWRN CORNER WITH A LITTLE LIGHT PCPN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE RIDGING PUSHES IT NORTH INTO MT. SHALLOW FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL EXPECTED TO SIT ACROSS THE NORTH FRIDAY FOR A SLIGHT
TEMPERING OF TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO AREAS JUST TO THE SOUTH.
SATURDAY LOOKS WARM AND DRY WITH INCREASING SW WIND.

ERN PACIFIC TROUGH THEN OPENS UP AND MOVES INLAND ACROSS US SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY WITH MODELS VARYING ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SECONDARY
BACK SIDE SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT/MON MRNG. AIRMASS STILL LOOKS COLD
ENOUGH FOR POTENTIAL LIGHT SNOW IN CENTRAL WYO LATER SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING WHERE PCPN FALLS. DECENT SHOT OF RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH A COUPLE TO SEVERAL
INCHES QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. BRIEF RIDGING WITH
TEMPERATURES RECOVERING SOME TUESDAY BEFORE POTENTIAL SEWD MOVING
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS
STRUGGLING WITH THE PATTERN CHANGE AND MOVEMENT OF SEVERAL KEY UPPER
LOWS OVER ASIA BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES COULD BE
IN THE OFFING JUST BEYOND THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. HOW IT ALL
EVOLVES AND THE EXACT TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN...MOST LIKELY
BETWEEN HALLOWEEN AND THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF NOVEMBER. NOTHING
CERTAIN YET.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH MAINLY SKC SKIES. EXPECT
INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND STRENGTHENING MOUNTAIN
TOP WINDS WITH POSSIBLY SOME LLWS ON THE LEE SIDE OF MOUNTAIN
RANGES ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. HOWEVER
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE OR MAGNITUDE TO INCLUDE AT KCOD OR KLND AT
THIS TIME. WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM KRKS TO KCPR BY
18Z THURSDAY. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM KCOD NORTH TO CLARK BY
00Z FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TEMPERATURES REBOUND A BIT ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE SOUTH BUT IT WILL BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IN SPOTS WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH COMMON BETWEEN ROCK SPRINGS AND
CASPER AND OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ON THURSDAY NIGHT WEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE AREA AROUND CLARK NORTH
OF CODY.SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS ON FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS REMAINING. THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS OVER 25 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON BETWEEN RAWLINS AND SOUTHERN CASPER DISPATCH BUT
MOST AREAS WILL HAVE RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
WYZ003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...LIPSON
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON








000
FXUS63 KUNR 221959
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
159 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER TROF AXIS PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH WEAK RIDGING MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. CLOUDY SKIES
HAVE SHIFTED EAST WITH SUNNY SKIES TAKING OVER. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT 2 PM ARE IN THE 50S AND
60S...AND THE WINDS ARE OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST.

UPPER RIDGE RETURNS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S TONIGHT...AND WARMING INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S ON
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHORTWAVE AHEAD
OF THE MAIN TROF AND COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
THROUGH MONDAY. THE MAIN UPPER TROF EXITS THE AREA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...PUSHING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK RIDGING THEN RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...26







000
FXUS65 KRIW 221830
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1230 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

A COOLER AIRMASS HANGING AROUND TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT
PASSED THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH SOME MODERATION ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. AFTER A RELATIVELY CALM DAY TODAY...THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO
BE ANOTHER WINDY DAY AS A TUG OF WAR ENSUES BETWEEN THE COLD BUT
DYNAMIC TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST AND THE RIDGE POKING IN FROM THE
SOUTH. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE
STRENGTHENING JET TO OUR NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY...WHICH COULD
INTRODUCE STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIGHT EXIT REGION
OF THE JET INTRUDES THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS WILL
KICK UP THE MOUNTAIN WAVE POTENTIAL OVER THE ABSAROKAS...MAINTAINING
CONSISTENCY WITH THE DAY SHIFT FORECAST FOR SOME WIND GUSTS IN THE
WESTERN CODY FOOTHILLS AT 50 MPH FOR LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO BUMPED UP POPS A LITTLE FOR THE NORTHWEST
ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A WAVE MOVES THROUGH. MOST OF THE
ACTION WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS
AROUND YELLOWSTONE AND THE TETONS. OTHERWISE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
WYOMING WILL BE DRY AND BREEZY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SYNOPSIS...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ON SATURDAY WITH RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
SPREADING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA INTO MONDAY. A WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONABLE MILD CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

DISCUSSION...COMPLEX VORTEX OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA THIS MORNING
WILL WOBBLE SE TO THE WEST COAST SATURDAY MORNING. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE INDIVIDUAL VORTICES WITHIN THIS
COMPLEX DIFFERENTLY...BUT AGREE THAT A VERY WARM SW FLOW WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE AREA SATURDAY BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND STRONG
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. RECORD HIGH TERRITORY FOR THE
25TH IS GENERALLY 72-74F RANGE ACROSS CENTRAL WY FOR THE 25TH...A
BIT WARMER AT WRL AT 79F. FORECAST HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR OR
EXCEEDING THESE RECORDS.

ON THE 22/00Z GFS AND ECMWF RUNS...GFS CONTINUES TO EJECT LEAD
SHORTWAVE OUT OF BASE OF THE TROUGH NE INTO WESTERN MONTANA
SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A MORE SPLIT
SYSTEM...SWINGING THIS SHORTWAVE FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN SATURDAY NIGHT. GFS VERSION WOULD KEEP MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE WEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH
WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH. ECMWF
DEPICTION WOULD RESULT IN MUCH COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY. EC AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS FAVOR SLOWER
PROGRESSION...MORE RESPECT FOR STRONG PLAINS RIDGE.
HOWEVER...EITHER WAY MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SNOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO BE
BETWEEN 5-6KFT BY MONDAY MORNING. THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA
STANDS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME ACCUMULATION MONDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ON VEGETATION WITH WET ROADS BELOW 6KFT. COOL AND
UNSETTLED NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH
LATTER IN THE DAY MONDAY WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
EXPECTED OVER THE NE HALF OF THE CWA. ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP
BEHIND THIS TROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING IN MILDER
PACIFIC AIRMASS ALONG WITH SOME OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION IN THE
WEST.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY WITH MAINLY SKC SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. AFTER 00Z...EXPECT INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
STRENGTHENING MOUNTAIN TOP WINDS WITH POSSIBLY SOME LLWS ON THE LEE
SIDE OF MOUNTAIN RANGES ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE DEVELOPING
AFTER 06Z. HOWEVER NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE OR MAGNITUDE TO INCLUDE AT
KCOD OR KLND AT THIS TIME. WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM
KRKS TO KCPR BY 18Z THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

THE WIND AND THE RAIN WILL CLEAR OUT TODAY WITH COOL TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BEHIND THE FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH YESTERDAY.
TEMPERATURES REBOUND A BIT ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE SOUTH BUT IT WILL BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IN SPOTS WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH COMMON BETWEEN ROCK SPRINGS AND
CASPER AND OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS ON
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS REMAINING. THERE COULD BE A
FEW GUSTS OVER 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON BETWEEN RAWLINS AND SOUTHERN
CASPER DISPATCH BUT MOST AREAS WILL HAVE RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ALLEN
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...WM/LIPSON
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN













000
FXUS63 KUNR 221727
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1127 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 249 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER WAVE PUSHING OVER THE ROCKIES. AHEAD OF
THE WAVE THERE ARE CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS...SOME OF WHICH ARE
OVER WESTERN SD. SURFACE TROUGH/COOL FRONT ARE MOVING THROUGH THE
CWA. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ARE KEEPING CENTRAL SD IN
THE 60S...WHILE TEMPS ARE COOLING INTO THE 40S AND 50S BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.

UPPER WAVE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY...PUSHING RAIN SHOWERS INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN SD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY REBUILD...AND
SKIES WILL CLEAR. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST SD...ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ACTUALLY
DECREASE DURING THE DAY SO WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH 50S IN THE BLACK
HILLS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S.

WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE RETURNS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
THURSDAY...A WEAK WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING...AND THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE NO MORE THAN SOME BREEZY
WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...AND
TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. IF WESTERLY WINDS DON/T GET TOO CALM
OVERNIGHT...DOWNSLOPING FLOW MAY KEEP THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS A BIT
WARMER.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 249 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10-15F ABOVE NORMAL. UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST
SUNDAY ALLOWING NEXT TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. IT WILL
BRING A COLD FRONT AND A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

SHOWERS ARE EXITING SOUTH CENTRAL SD NOW...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...26







000
FXUS63 KUNR 221727
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1127 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 249 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER WAVE PUSHING OVER THE ROCKIES. AHEAD OF
THE WAVE THERE ARE CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS...SOME OF WHICH ARE
OVER WESTERN SD. SURFACE TROUGH/COOL FRONT ARE MOVING THROUGH THE
CWA. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ARE KEEPING CENTRAL SD IN
THE 60S...WHILE TEMPS ARE COOLING INTO THE 40S AND 50S BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.

UPPER WAVE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY...PUSHING RAIN SHOWERS INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN SD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY REBUILD...AND
SKIES WILL CLEAR. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST SD...ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ACTUALLY
DECREASE DURING THE DAY SO WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH 50S IN THE BLACK
HILLS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S.

WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE RETURNS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
THURSDAY...A WEAK WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING...AND THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE NO MORE THAN SOME BREEZY
WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...AND
TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. IF WESTERLY WINDS DON/T GET TOO CALM
OVERNIGHT...DOWNSLOPING FLOW MAY KEEP THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS A BIT
WARMER.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 249 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10-15F ABOVE NORMAL. UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST
SUNDAY ALLOWING NEXT TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. IT WILL
BRING A COLD FRONT AND A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

SHOWERS ARE EXITING SOUTH CENTRAL SD NOW...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...26







000
FXUS65 KCYS 221529
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
929 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 852 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

FORECAST IS WELL ON TRACK FOR TODAY. ANOTHER NICE DAY IN STORE
ALBEIT SLIGHTLY COOLER FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LAST
NIGHT. SUNNY SKIES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS A VAST MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. SOME MID CLOUDS WILL BE FOUND CLOSER TOWARD
THE COLORADO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A FEW AFTERNOON
SPRINKLES ALONG THE BORDER THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE NO
PRECIPITATION TODAY OR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FOR THAT MATTER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S WEST WITH 60S INTO THE PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

CURRENT IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN WYOMING EARLY THIS MORNING WITH RADAR
SHOWING RAIN SHOWERS PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.
DRIER AIR HAS ALREADY PUSHED INTO CASPER AT THIS HOUR...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WYOMING AND THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE TODAY. THIS DRIER AIR IS ALSO BEHIND THE MAIN COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS RATHER WEAK THIS MORNING BUT GENERALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN CARBON COUNTY EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS CONVERSE AND
NIOBRARA COUNTIES. THIS COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ON
TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT WILL STILL BE SEASONABLE FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR AND GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. KEPT POP
BELOW 15 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE I80
CORRIDOR NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES DUE TO LLVL INSTABILITY AND THE
FRONT STALLING ACROSS THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS. THIS MAY PROVIDE
JUST ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO TRIGGER A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS...BUT
KEPT POP BELOW 15 PERCENT ALONG I80 FOR NOW DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THURSDAY AS A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO EXTEND NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER
70S ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK...WITH A FEW LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS BELOW 4500 FEET REACHING 80 DEGREES BY FRIDAY. POP WILL
BE NEAR ZERO BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH INTERVALS OF DENSE HIGH
CLOUDS POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A BIG CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED.

STARTING OFF FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...CWFA UNDER AN UPPER
RIDGE. RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVER THE CWFA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
700MB WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE WEST TO 30-35KTS. SATURDAY
SHOULD BE A BREEZY DAY. DOWNSLOPING OFF THE LARAMIE RANGE SHOULD
GIVE US SOME PRETTY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH MID TO UPPER 70S OUT IN
THE PANHANDLE AND LOW 70S OUT WEST.

STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR SUNDAY. ECMWF
SHOWS THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FURTHER SOUTH...TRACKING ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH. GFS HAS THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS WESTERN
MONTANA. BASED FORECAST OFF THE ECMWF AND HAVE SHOWERS DEVELOPING
OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES AS EARLY AS SUNDAY MORNING. SHOULD THE GFS
SOLUTION COME TRUE...WE WILL BE WINDY AND DRY.

MODELS ALSO DIFFER ON 700MB TEMPERATURES. WITH THE MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK...THE GFS IS FORECASTING 700MB TEMPERATURES OF +4 TO +10C
OVER THE CWFA FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF SHOWING -2C TO +4C OVER
THE AREA. SO WE COULD SEE A PRETTY BIG CHANCE FOR A TEMPERATURE
BUST ON FORECAST HIGHS SUNDAY.

COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AS BOTH MODELS SHOW 700MB
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -4 TO -8C OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING. SPLIT
FLOW WITH ENERGY FROM THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING INTO CENTRAL
COLORADO. BOTH MODELS SHOWING THIS FOR MONDAY. SINCE THIS IS QUITE
DIFFERENT FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...DECIDED TO KEEP LOW END
CHANCE POPS IN FOR ANOTHER FORECAST CYCLE BEFORE CHANGING THE
WEATHER DRASTICALLY. SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MOST PRECIP TO FALL
AS SNOW FOR MOST OF MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 554 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWERS COMING TO AN END OUT OVER THE
PANHANDLE. SHOULD SEE DRY CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
SCATTERING CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 153 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND. DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE TODAY AND
THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA...BUT WINDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND NOT MUCH OF A FACTOR. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
HIGHER HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED BY LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...TJT







000
FXUS65 KCYS 221156
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
556 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

CURRENT IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN WYOMING EARLY THIS MORNING WITH RADAR
SHOWING RAIN SHOWERS PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.
DRIER AIR HAS ALREADY PUSHED INTO CASPER AT THIS HOUR...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WYOMING AND THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE TODAY. THIS DRIER AIR IS ALSO BEHIND THE MAIN COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS RATHER WEAK THIS MORNING BUT GENERALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN CARBON COUNTY EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS CONVERSE AND
NIOBRARA COUNTIES. THIS COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ON
TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT WILL STILL BE SEASONABLE FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR AND GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. KEPT POP
BELOW 15 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE I80
CORRIDOR NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES DUE TO LLVL INSTABILITY AND THE
FRONT STALLING ACROSS THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS. THIS MAY PROVIDE
JUST ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO TRIGGER A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS...BUT
KEPT POP BELOW 15 PERCENT ALONG I80 FOR NOW DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THURSDAY AS A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO EXTEND NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER
70S ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK...WITH A FEW LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS BELOW 4500 FEET REACHING 80 DEGREES BY FRIDAY. POP WILL
BE NEAR ZERO BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH INTERVALS OF DENSE HIGH
CLOUDS POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A BIG CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED.

STARTING OFF FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...CWFA UNDER AN UPPER
RIDGE. RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVER THE CWFA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
700MB WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE WEST TO 30-35KTS. SATURDAY
SHOULD BE A BREEZY DAY. DOWNSLOPING OFF THE LARAMIE RANGE SHOULD
GIVE US SOME PRETTY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH MID TO UPPER 70S OUT IN
THE PANHANDLE AND LOW 70S OUT WEST.

STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR SUNDAY. ECMWF
SHOWS THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FURTHER SOUTH...TRACKING ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH. GFS HAS THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS WESTERN
MONTANA. BASED FORECAST OFF THE ECMWF AND HAVE SHOWERS DEVELOPING
OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES AS EARLY AS SUNDAY MORNING. SHOULD THE GFS
SOLUTION COME TRUE...WE WILL BE WINDY AND DRY.

MODELS ALSO DIFFER ON 700MB TEMPERATURES. WITH THE MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK...THE GFS IS FORECASTING 700MB TEMPERATURES OF +4 TO +10C
OVER THE CWFA FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF SHOWING -2C TO +4C OVER
THE AREA. SO WE COULD SEE A PRETTY BIG CHANCE FOR A TEMPERATURE
BUST ON FORECAST HIGHS SUNDAY.

COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AS BOTH MODELS SHOW 700MB
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -4 TO -8C OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING. SPLIT
FLOW WITH ENERGY FROM THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING INTO CENTRAL
COLORADO. BOTH MODELS SHOWING THIS FOR MONDAY. SINCE THIS IS QUITE
DIFFERENT FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...DECIDED TO KEEP LOW END
CHANCE POPS IN FOR ANOTHER FORECAST CYCLE BEFORE CHANGING THE
WEATHER DRASTICALLY. SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MOST PRECIP TO FALL
AS SNOW FOR MOST OF MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 554 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWERS COMING TO AN END OUT OVER THE
PANHANDLE. SHOULD SEE DRY CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
SCATTERING CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 153 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND. DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE TODAY AND
THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA...BUT WINDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND NOT MUCH OF A FACTOR. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
HIGHER HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED BY LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...TJT







000
FXUS63 KUNR 221045
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
445 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 249 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER WAVE PUSHING OVER THE ROCKIES. AHEAD OF
THE WAVE THERE ARE CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS...SOME OF WHICH ARE
OVER WESTERN SD. SURFACE TROUGH/COOL FRONT ARE MOVING THROUGH THE
CWA. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ARE KEEPING CENTRAL SD IN
THE 60S...WHILE TEMPS ARE COOLING INTO THE 40S AND 50S BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.

UPPER WAVE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY...PUSHING RAIN SHOWERS INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN SD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY REBUILD...AND
SKIES WILL CLEAR. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST SD...ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ACTUALLY
DECREASE DURING THE DAY SO WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH 50S IN THE BLACK
HILLS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S.

WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE RETURNS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
THURSDAY...A WEAK WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING...AND THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE NO MORE THAN SOME BREEZY
WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...AND
TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. IF WESTERLY WINDS DON/T GET TOO CALM
OVERNIGHT...DOWNSLOPING FLOW MAY KEEP THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS A BIT
WARMER.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 249 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10-15F ABOVE NORMAL. UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST
SUNDAY ALLOWING NEXT TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. IT WILL
BRING A COLD FRONT AND A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 444 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING SOME SHRA TO AREAS ALONG/EAST OF A
LINE FROM KIEN TO KD07. ACTIVITY WILL ACCELERATE EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON EXITING THE CWA. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON THE SD PLAINS TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...HELGESON





000
FXUS65 KRIW 220937
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
337 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

A COOLER AIRMASS HANGING AROUND TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT
PASSED THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH SOME MODERATION ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. AFTER A RELATIVELY CALM DAY TODAY...THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO
BE ANOTHER WINDY DAY AS A TUG OF WAR ENSUES BETWEEN THE COLD BUT
DYNAMIC TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST AND THE RIDGE POKING IN FROM THE
SOUTH. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE
STRENGTHENING JET TO OUR NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY...WHICH COULD
INTRODUCE STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIGHT EXIT REGION
OF THE JET INTRUDES THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS WILL
KICK UP THE MOUNTAIN WAVE POTENTIAL OVER THE ABSAROKAS...MAINTAINING
CONSISTENCY WITH THE DAY SHIFT FORECAST FOR SOME WIND GUSTS IN THE
WESTERN CODY FOOTHILLS AT 50 MPH FOR LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO BUMPED UP POPS A LITTLE FOR THE NORTHWEST
ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A WAVE MOVES THROUGH. MOST OF THE
ACTION WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS
AROUND YELLOWSTONE AND THE TETONS. OTHERWISE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
WYOMING WILL BE DRY AND BREEZY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SYNOPSIS...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ON SATURDAY WITH RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
SPREADING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA INTO MONDAY. A WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONABLE MILD CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

DISCUSSION...COMPLEX VORTEX OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA THIS MORNING
WILL WOBBLE SE TO THE WEST COAST SATURDAY MORNING. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE INDIVIDUAL VORTICES WITHIN THIS
COMPLEX DIFFERENTLY...BUT AGREE THAT A VERY WARM SW FLOW WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE AREA SATURDAY BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND STRONG
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. RECORD HIGH TERRITORY FOR THE
25TH IS GENERALLY 72-74F RANGE ACROSS CENTRAL WY FOR THE 25TH...A
BIT WARMER AT WRL AT 79F. FORECAST HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR OR
EXCEEDING THESE RECORDS.

ON THE 22/00Z GFS AND ECMWF RUNS...GFS CONTINUES TO EJECT LEAD
SHORTWAVE OUT OF BASE OF THE TROUGH NE INTO WESTERN MONTANA
SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A MORE SPLIT
SYSTEM...SWINGING THIS SHORTWAVE FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN SATURDAY NIGHT. GFS VERSION WOULD KEEP MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE WEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH
WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH. ECMWF
DEPICTION WOULD RESULT IN MUCH COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY. EC AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS FAVOR SLOWER
PROGRESSION...MORE RESPECT FOR STRONG PLAINS RIDGE.
HOWEVER...EITHER WAY MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SNOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO BE
BETWEEN 5-6KFT BY MONDAY MORNING. THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA
STANDS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME ACCUMULATION MONDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ON VEGETATION WITH WET ROADS BELOW 6KFT. COOL AND
UNSETTLED NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH
LATTER IN THE DAY MONDAY WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
EXPECTED OVER THE NE HALF OF THE CWA. ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP
BEHIND THIS TROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING IN MILDER
PACIFIC AIRMASS ALONG WITH SOME OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION IN THE
WEST.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

LOW CLOUDS /020-050 KFT AGL/ AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS
NORTHWEST WYOMING /NW OF A KAFO-KPNA-30W KCOD LINE/ THIS MORNING
WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION HAZARD FOR THIS SET OF TAFS. THIS WOULD
PRIMARILY IMPACT THE KJAC TERMINAL...WITH CEILINGS AT KJAC PROBABLY
HIGH MVFR TO LOW VFR. FOG CHANCES AT KJAC WILL BE SLIM DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRATCU DECK. THIS FOG/LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TO ERODE BY AROUND 18Z. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY WITH MAINLY SKC SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
AFTER 00Z...EXPECT INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
STRENGTHENING MOUNTAIN TOP WINDS WITH POSSIBLY SOME LLWS ON THE LEE
SIDE OF MOUNTAIN RANGES ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE DEVELOPING
AFTER 06Z. HOWEVER NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE OR MAGNITUDE TO INCLUDE AT
KCOD OR KLND AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

THE WIND AND THE RAIN WILL CLEAR OUT TODAY WITH COOL TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BEHIND THE FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH YESTERDAY.
TEMPERATURES REBOUND A BIT ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE SOUTH BUT IT WILL BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IN SPOTS WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH COMMON BETWEEN ROCK SPRINGS AND
CASPER AND OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS ON
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS REMAINING. THERE COULD BE A
FEW GUSTS OVER 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON BETWEEN RAWLINS AND SOUTHERN
CASPER DISPATCH BUT MOST AREAS WILL HAVE RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ALLEN
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN










000
FXUS65 KRIW 220937
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
337 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

A COOLER AIRMASS HANGING AROUND TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT
PASSED THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH SOME MODERATION ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. AFTER A RELATIVELY CALM DAY TODAY...THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO
BE ANOTHER WINDY DAY AS A TUG OF WAR ENSUES BETWEEN THE COLD BUT
DYNAMIC TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST AND THE RIDGE POKING IN FROM THE
SOUTH. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE
STRENGTHENING JET TO OUR NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY...WHICH COULD
INTRODUCE STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIGHT EXIT REGION
OF THE JET INTRUDES THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS WILL
KICK UP THE MOUNTAIN WAVE POTENTIAL OVER THE ABSAROKAS...MAINTAINING
CONSISTENCY WITH THE DAY SHIFT FORECAST FOR SOME WIND GUSTS IN THE
WESTERN CODY FOOTHILLS AT 50 MPH FOR LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO BUMPED UP POPS A LITTLE FOR THE NORTHWEST
ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A WAVE MOVES THROUGH. MOST OF THE
ACTION WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS
AROUND YELLOWSTONE AND THE TETONS. OTHERWISE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
WYOMING WILL BE DRY AND BREEZY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SYNOPSIS...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ON SATURDAY WITH RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
SPREADING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA INTO MONDAY. A WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONABLE MILD CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

DISCUSSION...COMPLEX VORTEX OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA THIS MORNING
WILL WOBBLE SE TO THE WEST COAST SATURDAY MORNING. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE INDIVIDUAL VORTICES WITHIN THIS
COMPLEX DIFFERENTLY...BUT AGREE THAT A VERY WARM SW FLOW WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE AREA SATURDAY BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND STRONG
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. RECORD HIGH TERRITORY FOR THE
25TH IS GENERALLY 72-74F RANGE ACROSS CENTRAL WY FOR THE 25TH...A
BIT WARMER AT WRL AT 79F. FORECAST HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR OR
EXCEEDING THESE RECORDS.

ON THE 22/00Z GFS AND ECMWF RUNS...GFS CONTINUES TO EJECT LEAD
SHORTWAVE OUT OF BASE OF THE TROUGH NE INTO WESTERN MONTANA
SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A MORE SPLIT
SYSTEM...SWINGING THIS SHORTWAVE FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN SATURDAY NIGHT. GFS VERSION WOULD KEEP MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE WEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH
WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH. ECMWF
DEPICTION WOULD RESULT IN MUCH COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY. EC AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS FAVOR SLOWER
PROGRESSION...MORE RESPECT FOR STRONG PLAINS RIDGE.
HOWEVER...EITHER WAY MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SNOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO BE
BETWEEN 5-6KFT BY MONDAY MORNING. THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA
STANDS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME ACCUMULATION MONDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ON VEGETATION WITH WET ROADS BELOW 6KFT. COOL AND
UNSETTLED NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH
LATTER IN THE DAY MONDAY WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
EXPECTED OVER THE NE HALF OF THE CWA. ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP
BEHIND THIS TROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING IN MILDER
PACIFIC AIRMASS ALONG WITH SOME OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION IN THE
WEST.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

LOW CLOUDS /020-050 KFT AGL/ AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS
NORTHWEST WYOMING /NW OF A KAFO-KPNA-30W KCOD LINE/ THIS MORNING
WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION HAZARD FOR THIS SET OF TAFS. THIS WOULD
PRIMARILY IMPACT THE KJAC TERMINAL...WITH CEILINGS AT KJAC PROBABLY
HIGH MVFR TO LOW VFR. FOG CHANCES AT KJAC WILL BE SLIM DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRATCU DECK. THIS FOG/LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TO ERODE BY AROUND 18Z. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY WITH MAINLY SKC SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
AFTER 00Z...EXPECT INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
STRENGTHENING MOUNTAIN TOP WINDS WITH POSSIBLY SOME LLWS ON THE LEE
SIDE OF MOUNTAIN RANGES ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE DEVELOPING
AFTER 06Z. HOWEVER NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE OR MAGNITUDE TO INCLUDE AT
KCOD OR KLND AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

THE WIND AND THE RAIN WILL CLEAR OUT TODAY WITH COOL TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BEHIND THE FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH YESTERDAY.
TEMPERATURES REBOUND A BIT ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE SOUTH BUT IT WILL BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IN SPOTS WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH COMMON BETWEEN ROCK SPRINGS AND
CASPER AND OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS ON
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS REMAINING. THERE COULD BE A
FEW GUSTS OVER 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON BETWEEN RAWLINS AND SOUTHERN
CASPER DISPATCH BUT MOST AREAS WILL HAVE RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ALLEN
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN










000
FXUS65 KCYS 220859
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
259 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

CURRENT IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN WYOMING EARLY THIS MORNING WITH RADAR
SHOWING RAIN SHOWERS PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.
DRIER AIR HAS ALREADY PUSHED INTO CASPER AT THIS HOUR...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WYOMING AND THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE TODAY. THIS DRIER AIR IS ALSO BEHIND THE MAIN COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS RATHER WEAK THIS MORNING BUT GENERALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN CARBON COUNTY EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS CONVERSE AND
NIOBRARA COUNTIES. THIS COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ON
TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT WILL STILL BE SEASONABLE FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR AND GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. KEPT POP
BELOW 15 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE I80
CORRIDOR NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES DUE TO LLVL INSTABILITY AND THE
FRONT STALLING ACROSS THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS. THIS MAY PROVIDE
JUST ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO TRIGGER A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS...BUT
KEPT POP BELOW 15 PERCENT ALONG I80 FOR NOW DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THURSDAY AS A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO EXTEND NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER
70S ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK...WITH A FEW LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS BELOW 4500 FEET REACHING 80 DEGREES BY FRIDAY. POP WILL
BE NEAR ZERO BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH INTERVALS OF DENSE HIGH
CLOUDS POSSIBLE.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A BIG CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED.

STARTING OFF FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...CWFA UNDER AN UPPER
RIDGE. RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVER THE CWFA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
700MB WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE WEST TO 30-35KTS. SATURDAY
SHOULD BE A BREEZY DAY. DOWNSLOPING OFF THE LARAMIE RANGE SHOULD
GIVE US SOME PRETTY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH MID TO UPPER 70S OUT IN
THE PANHANDLE AND LOW 70S OUT WEST.

STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR SUNDAY. ECMWF
SHOWS THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FURTHER SOUTH...TRACKING ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH. GFS HAS THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS WESTERN
MONTANA. BASED FORECAST OFF THE ECMWF AND HAVE SHOWERS DEVELOPING
OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES AS EARLY AS SUNDAY MORNING. SHOULD THE GFS
SOLUTION COME TRUE...WE WILL BE WINDY AND DRY.

MODELS ALSO DIFFER ON 700MB TEMPERATURES. WITH THE MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK...THE GFS IS FORECASTING 700MB TEMPERATURES OF +4 TO +10C
OVER THE CWFA FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF SHOWING -2C TO +4C OVER
THE AREA. SO WE COULD SEE A PRETTY BIG CHANCE FOR A TEMPERATURE
BUST ON FORECAST HIGHS SUNDAY.

COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AS BOTH MODELS SHOW 700MB
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -4 TO -8C OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING. SPLIT
FLOW WITH ENERGY FROM THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING INTO CENTRAL
COLORADO. BOTH MODELS SHOWING THIS FOR MONDAY. SINCE THIS IS QUITE
DIFFERENT FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...DECIDED TO KEEP LOW END
CHANCE POPS IN FOR ANOTHER FORECAST CYCLE BEFORE CHANGING THE
WEATHER DRASTICALLY. SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MOST PRECIP TO FALL
AS SNOW FOR MOST OF MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...ALONG WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS... THE REST OF THE NIGHT PRODUCING LOCALIZED
MVFR...THOUGH VFR PREVAILS. PACIFIC ORIGIN COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE TERMINALS WITH WINDS BECOMING WEST AND NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

DECREASING CLOUDINESS AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY WITH ALL LOCATIONS
REPORTING VFR ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE
8000 FEET AGL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 153 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND. DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE TODAY AND
THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA...BUT WINDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND NOT MUCH OF A FACTOR. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
HIGHER HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED BY LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...TJT










000
FXUS63 KUNR 220854
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
254 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 249 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER WAVE PUSHING OVER THE ROCKIES.
AHEAD OF THE WAVE THERE ARE CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS...SOME OF WHICH
ARE OVER WESTERN SD. SURFACE TROUGH/COOL FRONT ARE MOVING THROUGH
THE CWA. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ARE KEEPING CENTRAL SD
IN THE 60S...WHILE TEMPS ARE COOLING INTO THE 40S AND 50S BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.

UPPER WAVE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY...PUSHING RAIN SHOWERS INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN SD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY REBUILD...AND
SKIES WILL CLEAR. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST SD...ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ACTUALLY
DECREASE DURING THE DAY SO WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH 50S IN THE BLACK
HILLS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S.

WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE RETURNS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
THURSDAY...A WEAK WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING...AND THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE NO MORE THAN SOME BREEZY
WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...AND
TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. IF WESTERLY WINDS DON/T GET TOO CALM
OVERNIGHT...DOWNSLOPING FLOW MAY KEEP THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS A BIT
WARMER.


&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 249 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10-15F ABOVE NORMAL. UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST
SUNDAY ALLOWING NEXT TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. IT WILL
BRING A COLD FRONT AND A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 249 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING SOME SHRA TO AREAS
ALONG/EAST OF A LINE FROM KCDR TO KMBG. ACTIVITY WILL ACCELERATE
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON EXITING THE CWA. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON THE SD PLAINS TODAY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...HELGESON







000
FXUS65 KRIW 220500
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1100 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A COUPLE OF CONVECTIVE BANDS ASCT WITH A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT/VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PLOWED EAST ACROSS WESTERN WY
THIS MORNING EACH WITH ISOLD LTG STRIKES AND SOME BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL IN SOME AREAS. A SKIFF OF SNOW ON THE GROUND WAS NOTED AT
WIND RIVER LAKE. THE SHOWERS WERE DRYING OUT AS THEY CROSS THE
DIVIDE. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS WITH 50 MPH WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE WIND RIVER BASIN AND EXTEND DOWN INTO SWEETWATER COUNTY
AS INSTABILITY HAS TRUMPED THE DOWNSLOPE DRYING EFFECT. A WELL
DEVELOPED CIRCULATION IS SEEN OVER CENTRAL IDAHO. LONG AFTER THE
DRY SLOT BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION PUNCHES INTO WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WY...WRAP AROUND FROM THE CIRCULATION NOW IN
IDAHO WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS IN NW WY AS
THE SNOW LEVEL DROPS TO 6500 FEET THIS EVENING WITH THESE SHOWERS
DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MOST OF THE QG FORCING WITH
THIS WX SYSTEM WILL REMAIN UP IN MONTANA SO EXPECTING MAINLY LIGHT
PRECIP AMOUNTS TONIGHT IN NW WY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
BEHIND TODAYS COLD FRONT WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME OUT WEST WHERE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS HAVE KEPT THOSE AREAS ON THE COOL SIDE
TODAY...BUT WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER EAST OF THE
DIVIDE. EXPECT SOME WESTERLY BREEZES FROM KRKS TO KCPR AND AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

BRIEF RIDGING OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING SW
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS AS SEVERAL RIPPLES IN
THE FLOW MOVE TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. A STRONG UPPER JET THEN PUSHES
JUST TO THE NORTH LEAVING OUR NRN ZONES IN THE RIGHT EXIT REGION.
CROSS SECTIONS SHOW SOME DECENT 30-40KT MTN TOP FLOW ALONG THE
ABSAROKAS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A WAVE INDUCED CRITICAL LAYER. NOT
SEEING ANY SUSTAINED MOUNTAIN TOP INVERSION BUT AT LEAST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT BASED ON THE SOUNDINGS AND
CROSS SECTIONS. RIGHT NOW...JUST LEANING TOWARDS INCREASED WINDS IN
THE FORECAST THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SPECIFIC
WORDING IN THE HWO FOR WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH OR MORE ALONG THE CODY
FOOTHILLS MAINLY LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK
RIPPLE MAY ACTUALLY PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE NORTH ON
FRIDAY TEMPERING THE HIGHS SOME.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE TEXAS AREA FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WITH DECENT RIDGING UP INTO OUR AREA BEFORE SHIFTING
OFF TO THE EAST SOME AS OUR GULF OF ALASKA UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND
MOVES INLAND. MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THIS EVOLUTION...
ESPECIALLY IN REGARDS TO HOW MUCH SPLITTING THERE WOULD BE. GFS AND
ECMWF ARE MORE IN STEP WITH LESS SPLITTING WITH THIS WEEKEND SYSTEM
ON THEIR 12Z RUNS. MODELS TO A VARYING DEGREE ARE ALSO TRENDING
TOWARD A SECONDARY COLD SHORTWAVE FOLLOWING QUICKLY BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE GEM WHICH IS SLOWER AND HOLDS OFF
UNTIL MONDAY. COULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW IN CENTRAL WYO SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY...ESPECIALLY WHERE
IT PRECIPITATES. WILL WATCH THIS CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
AFTER THAT...FLAT RIDGE REBUILDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY FOR
REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.


&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

AN AREA OF ISOLATED -SHRA ONGOING...ALONG AND SE OF A KRKS-KCPR
LINE...WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY 09Z. EXCEPT FOR VERY
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA ACTIVITY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL IN THIS AREA. ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST WYOMING LOW CLOUDS AND
SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO ONLY SOME
FLURRIES BY 12Z. BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOW
CLOUDS /020-050 KFT AGL/ AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS
NORTHWEST WYOMING /NW OF A KAFO-KPNA-30W KCOD LINE/. THIS WOULD
PRIMARILY IMPACT THE KJAC TERMINAL...WITH CEILINGS AT KJAC PROBABLY
HIGH MVFR TO LOW VFR. FOG CHANCES AT KJAC WILL BE SLIM DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRATCU DECK. THIS FOG/LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TO ERODE BY AROUND 18Z. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT WITH SKC CONDITIONS
AND BREEZY WINDS BECOMING LIGHTER AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES WITH
MAINLY LIGHT WIND DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.  AFTER 00Z...EXPECT
INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND STRENGTHENING MOUNTAIN TOP
WINDS WITH POSSIBLY SOME LLWS ON THE LEE SIDE OF MOUNTAIN RANGES
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL LIMIT CHANCES FOR WETTING
RAIN EAST...WHILE MORE FAVORABLE FLOW WILL MAXIMIZE POTENTIAL
ALONG WEST FACING SLOPES ALONG AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY
NORTHWEST WYOMING THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
TONIGHT...CHANGING THE WIND DIRECTION TO MORE WESTERLY EVERYWHERE.
THE WIND AND THE RAIN WILL CLEAR OUT ON WEDNESDAY WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES REMAINING. TEMPERATURES REBOUND A BIT ON THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH BUT IT WILL BE ANOTHER BREEZY
DAY IN SPOTS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH COMMON BETWEEN
ROCK SPRINGS AND CASPER AND OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON









000
FXUS65 KRIW 220500
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1100 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A COUPLE OF CONVECTIVE BANDS ASCT WITH A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT/VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PLOWED EAST ACROSS WESTERN WY
THIS MORNING EACH WITH ISOLD LTG STRIKES AND SOME BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL IN SOME AREAS. A SKIFF OF SNOW ON THE GROUND WAS NOTED AT
WIND RIVER LAKE. THE SHOWERS WERE DRYING OUT AS THEY CROSS THE
DIVIDE. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS WITH 50 MPH WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE WIND RIVER BASIN AND EXTEND DOWN INTO SWEETWATER COUNTY
AS INSTABILITY HAS TRUMPED THE DOWNSLOPE DRYING EFFECT. A WELL
DEVELOPED CIRCULATION IS SEEN OVER CENTRAL IDAHO. LONG AFTER THE
DRY SLOT BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION PUNCHES INTO WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WY...WRAP AROUND FROM THE CIRCULATION NOW IN
IDAHO WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS IN NW WY AS
THE SNOW LEVEL DROPS TO 6500 FEET THIS EVENING WITH THESE SHOWERS
DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MOST OF THE QG FORCING WITH
THIS WX SYSTEM WILL REMAIN UP IN MONTANA SO EXPECTING MAINLY LIGHT
PRECIP AMOUNTS TONIGHT IN NW WY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
BEHIND TODAYS COLD FRONT WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME OUT WEST WHERE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS HAVE KEPT THOSE AREAS ON THE COOL SIDE
TODAY...BUT WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER EAST OF THE
DIVIDE. EXPECT SOME WESTERLY BREEZES FROM KRKS TO KCPR AND AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

BRIEF RIDGING OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING SW
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS AS SEVERAL RIPPLES IN
THE FLOW MOVE TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. A STRONG UPPER JET THEN PUSHES
JUST TO THE NORTH LEAVING OUR NRN ZONES IN THE RIGHT EXIT REGION.
CROSS SECTIONS SHOW SOME DECENT 30-40KT MTN TOP FLOW ALONG THE
ABSAROKAS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A WAVE INDUCED CRITICAL LAYER. NOT
SEEING ANY SUSTAINED MOUNTAIN TOP INVERSION BUT AT LEAST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT BASED ON THE SOUNDINGS AND
CROSS SECTIONS. RIGHT NOW...JUST LEANING TOWARDS INCREASED WINDS IN
THE FORECAST THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SPECIFIC
WORDING IN THE HWO FOR WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH OR MORE ALONG THE CODY
FOOTHILLS MAINLY LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK
RIPPLE MAY ACTUALLY PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE NORTH ON
FRIDAY TEMPERING THE HIGHS SOME.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE TEXAS AREA FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WITH DECENT RIDGING UP INTO OUR AREA BEFORE SHIFTING
OFF TO THE EAST SOME AS OUR GULF OF ALASKA UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND
MOVES INLAND. MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THIS EVOLUTION...
ESPECIALLY IN REGARDS TO HOW MUCH SPLITTING THERE WOULD BE. GFS AND
ECMWF ARE MORE IN STEP WITH LESS SPLITTING WITH THIS WEEKEND SYSTEM
ON THEIR 12Z RUNS. MODELS TO A VARYING DEGREE ARE ALSO TRENDING
TOWARD A SECONDARY COLD SHORTWAVE FOLLOWING QUICKLY BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE GEM WHICH IS SLOWER AND HOLDS OFF
UNTIL MONDAY. COULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW IN CENTRAL WYO SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY...ESPECIALLY WHERE
IT PRECIPITATES. WILL WATCH THIS CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
AFTER THAT...FLAT RIDGE REBUILDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY FOR
REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.


&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

AN AREA OF ISOLATED -SHRA ONGOING...ALONG AND SE OF A KRKS-KCPR
LINE...WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY 09Z. EXCEPT FOR VERY
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA ACTIVITY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL IN THIS AREA. ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST WYOMING LOW CLOUDS AND
SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO ONLY SOME
FLURRIES BY 12Z. BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOW
CLOUDS /020-050 KFT AGL/ AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS
NORTHWEST WYOMING /NW OF A KAFO-KPNA-30W KCOD LINE/. THIS WOULD
PRIMARILY IMPACT THE KJAC TERMINAL...WITH CEILINGS AT KJAC PROBABLY
HIGH MVFR TO LOW VFR. FOG CHANCES AT KJAC WILL BE SLIM DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRATCU DECK. THIS FOG/LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TO ERODE BY AROUND 18Z. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT WITH SKC CONDITIONS
AND BREEZY WINDS BECOMING LIGHTER AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES WITH
MAINLY LIGHT WIND DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.  AFTER 00Z...EXPECT
INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND STRENGTHENING MOUNTAIN TOP
WINDS WITH POSSIBLY SOME LLWS ON THE LEE SIDE OF MOUNTAIN RANGES
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL LIMIT CHANCES FOR WETTING
RAIN EAST...WHILE MORE FAVORABLE FLOW WILL MAXIMIZE POTENTIAL
ALONG WEST FACING SLOPES ALONG AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY
NORTHWEST WYOMING THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
TONIGHT...CHANGING THE WIND DIRECTION TO MORE WESTERLY EVERYWHERE.
THE WIND AND THE RAIN WILL CLEAR OUT ON WEDNESDAY WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES REMAINING. TEMPERATURES REBOUND A BIT ON THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH BUT IT WILL BE ANOTHER BREEZY
DAY IN SPOTS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH COMMON BETWEEN
ROCK SPRINGS AND CASPER AND OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON









000
FXUS63 KUNR 220456
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1056 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPPER RIDGING HAS PUSHED EWD WITH THE MAIN AXIS NOW CENTERED ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST. A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES IS
SLIDING EAST WITH STRONG SWRLY FLOW OVER THE CWA. SURFACE LOW HAS
DEVELOPED OVER ERN MT WITH BREEZY SRLY WINDS OVER THE CNTRL SD
PLAINS...AND SWRLY WINDS OVER NE WY TO FAR WRN SD.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES. A
COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA
OVERNIGHT. ISLD SHRA WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...BUT LACK OF
MOISTURE WILL WARRANT KEEPING POPS LOW.

LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PUSH EWD INTO CNTRL SD WED
MORNING...CLEARING THE CWA BY EARLY AFTN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE DEPARTING WAVE WILL BRING A RETURN OF SUNNY SKIES TO THE
AREA...AND CLEAR SKIES WED NIGHT. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE
COOLER...MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH BREEZY NW WINDS OVER NW TO CNTRL SD.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WED NIGHT...HAVE DROPPED MIN TEMPS
SLIGHTLY...INTO THE LOWER 30S IN SOME SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL MT INTO
EASTERN CO. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE ABOVE AVERAGE AGAIN WITH
READINGS 10 TO 20F ABOVE AVERAGE. UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING TROUGH TO MOVE OVER THE CWA. RESULT
WILL BE A COOL DOWN SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT...SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHRA. NO FLT RESTRICTIONS
ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO AROUND 25KTS ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC







000
FXUS63 KUNR 220456
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1056 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPPER RIDGING HAS PUSHED EWD WITH THE MAIN AXIS NOW CENTERED ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST. A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES IS
SLIDING EAST WITH STRONG SWRLY FLOW OVER THE CWA. SURFACE LOW HAS
DEVELOPED OVER ERN MT WITH BREEZY SRLY WINDS OVER THE CNTRL SD
PLAINS...AND SWRLY WINDS OVER NE WY TO FAR WRN SD.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES. A
COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA
OVERNIGHT. ISLD SHRA WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...BUT LACK OF
MOISTURE WILL WARRANT KEEPING POPS LOW.

LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PUSH EWD INTO CNTRL SD WED
MORNING...CLEARING THE CWA BY EARLY AFTN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE DEPARTING WAVE WILL BRING A RETURN OF SUNNY SKIES TO THE
AREA...AND CLEAR SKIES WED NIGHT. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE
COOLER...MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH BREEZY NW WINDS OVER NW TO CNTRL SD.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WED NIGHT...HAVE DROPPED MIN TEMPS
SLIGHTLY...INTO THE LOWER 30S IN SOME SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL MT INTO
EASTERN CO. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE ABOVE AVERAGE AGAIN WITH
READINGS 10 TO 20F ABOVE AVERAGE. UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING TROUGH TO MOVE OVER THE CWA. RESULT
WILL BE A COOL DOWN SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT...SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHRA. NO FLT RESTRICTIONS
ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO AROUND 25KTS ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC







000
FXUS65 KCYS 220445
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1045 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 826 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ONGOING ACROSS OUR COUNTIES
AS OF MID EVENING...FROM CHEYENNE TO CHADRON...AND ALSO ALONG THE
COLD FRONT FROM SARATOGA TO DOUGLAS. FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ALSO
NOTED ACROSS EASTERN CARBON COUNTY.

AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES TO EASTERN
MONTANA BY DAWN...WE WILL SEE A PACIFIC ORIGIN COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS OUR COUNTIES...WITH THE 22/00Z NAM SHOWING SLIGHTLY
MORE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS...THUS HAVE BUMPED UP POPS SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT TO MATCH TRENDS AND NAM MODEL PROGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VORTMAX NOW OVER EASTERN IDAHO WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT INTO WEDS
MORNING WITH THE BULK OF THE ENERGY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
MONTANA. RADAR SHOWING SOME LIGHT ACTIVITY OVER THE NRN COLORADO
MTNS AND ALONG THE WY/NEB BORDER GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE
BUT FAIRLY LIGHT IN INTENSITY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO
THIS EVENING AS THE CWA GETS CLIPPED WITH SOME OF THE ENERGY FROM
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER WITH ANY STRONGER ACTIVITY INTO THIS EVENING WITH SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY AROUND. SHOWERS WILL THEN MOVE OUT OF THE CWA
LATER TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF ONE UPPER IMPULSE AND A SFC COOL
FRONT. NOT A LOT OF COOLING BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR WEDS AS THE AIR
MASS IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN. DRY WEDS THROUGH THURSDAY UNDER A
GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW. WARMER AGAIN THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS A BIT OVER THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AFTER A MILD COOL-DOWN IN THE SHORT TERM...WE EXPECT TO SEE
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP BY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND AS UPPER
RIDGING ALOFT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA. TEMPS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
BY SATURDAY WILL AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 70S IN MANY AREAS...WITH
60S ABOVE 7000 FT MSL AND 50S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GFS AND ECMWF
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT BRINGING THE NEXT CHANGE TO THE REGION LATE
IN THE WEEKEND WITH AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO SWING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW THIS NEXT SYSTEM TO BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.  ON THE 12Z
UPDATES...THE ECMWF STILL APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER WITH
THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS...BUT THE GFS HAS TRENDED COLDER IN
THE MIDLEVELS AND IS NOW CLOSER TO THE ECMWF WITH THE 700 MB
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. QPF AMOUNTS IN
LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW A LITTLE LESS ACCUMULATION WHERE SNOW
PERSISTS AS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS CYCLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...
THE REST OF THE NIGHT PRODUCING LOCALIZED MVFR...THOUGH VFR
PREVAILS. PACIFIC ORIGIN COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS
WITH WINDS BECOMING WEST AND NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

DECREASING CLOUDINESS AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY WITH ALL LOCATIONS
REPORTING VFR ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE
8000 FEET AGL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CONCERNS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS
WEATHER CONDITIONS GENERALLY NON-CRITICAL.  LOWEST AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES WILL GET TO AROUND 20 PERCENT THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BUT WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH OF A FACTOR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RUBIN
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...GARMON
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...RE







000
FXUS65 KCYS 220445
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1045 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 826 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ONGOING ACROSS OUR COUNTIES
AS OF MID EVENING...FROM CHEYENNE TO CHADRON...AND ALSO ALONG THE
COLD FRONT FROM SARATOGA TO DOUGLAS. FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ALSO
NOTED ACROSS EASTERN CARBON COUNTY.

AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES TO EASTERN
MONTANA BY DAWN...WE WILL SEE A PACIFIC ORIGIN COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS OUR COUNTIES...WITH THE 22/00Z NAM SHOWING SLIGHTLY
MORE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS...THUS HAVE BUMPED UP POPS SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT TO MATCH TRENDS AND NAM MODEL PROGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VORTMAX NOW OVER EASTERN IDAHO WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT INTO WEDS
MORNING WITH THE BULK OF THE ENERGY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
MONTANA. RADAR SHOWING SOME LIGHT ACTIVITY OVER THE NRN COLORADO
MTNS AND ALONG THE WY/NEB BORDER GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE
BUT FAIRLY LIGHT IN INTENSITY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO
THIS EVENING AS THE CWA GETS CLIPPED WITH SOME OF THE ENERGY FROM
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER WITH ANY STRONGER ACTIVITY INTO THIS EVENING WITH SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY AROUND. SHOWERS WILL THEN MOVE OUT OF THE CWA
LATER TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF ONE UPPER IMPULSE AND A SFC COOL
FRONT. NOT A LOT OF COOLING BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR WEDS AS THE AIR
MASS IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN. DRY WEDS THROUGH THURSDAY UNDER A
GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW. WARMER AGAIN THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS A BIT OVER THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AFTER A MILD COOL-DOWN IN THE SHORT TERM...WE EXPECT TO SEE
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP BY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND AS UPPER
RIDGING ALOFT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA. TEMPS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
BY SATURDAY WILL AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 70S IN MANY AREAS...WITH
60S ABOVE 7000 FT MSL AND 50S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GFS AND ECMWF
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT BRINGING THE NEXT CHANGE TO THE REGION LATE
IN THE WEEKEND WITH AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO SWING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW THIS NEXT SYSTEM TO BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.  ON THE 12Z
UPDATES...THE ECMWF STILL APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER WITH
THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS...BUT THE GFS HAS TRENDED COLDER IN
THE MIDLEVELS AND IS NOW CLOSER TO THE ECMWF WITH THE 700 MB
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. QPF AMOUNTS IN
LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW A LITTLE LESS ACCUMULATION WHERE SNOW
PERSISTS AS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS CYCLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...
THE REST OF THE NIGHT PRODUCING LOCALIZED MVFR...THOUGH VFR
PREVAILS. PACIFIC ORIGIN COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS
WITH WINDS BECOMING WEST AND NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

DECREASING CLOUDINESS AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY WITH ALL LOCATIONS
REPORTING VFR ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE
8000 FEET AGL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CONCERNS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS
WEATHER CONDITIONS GENERALLY NON-CRITICAL.  LOWEST AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES WILL GET TO AROUND 20 PERCENT THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BUT WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH OF A FACTOR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RUBIN
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...GARMON
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...RE







000
FXUS65 KCYS 220232
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
832 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 826 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ONGOING ACROSS OUR COUNTIES
AS OF MID EVENING...FROM CHEYENNE TO CHADRON...AND ALSO ALONG THE
COLD FRONT FROM SARATOGA TO DOUGLAS. FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ALSO
NOTED ACROSS EASTERN CARBON COUNTY.

AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES TO EASTERN
MONTANA BY DAWN...WE WILL SEE A PACIFIC ORIGIN COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS OUR COUNTIES...WITH THE 22/00Z NAM SHOWING SLIGHTLY
MORE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS...THUS HAVE BUMPED UP POPS SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT TO MATCH TRENDS AND NAM MODEL PROGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VORTMAX NOW OVER EASTERN IDAHO WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT INTO WEDS
MORNING WITH THE BULK OF THE ENERGY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
MONTANA. RADAR SHOWING SOME LIGHT ACTIVITY OVER THE NRN COLORADO
MTNS AND ALONG THE WY/NEB BORDER GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE
BUT FAIRLY LIGHT IN INTENSITY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO
THIS EVENING AS THE CWA GETS CLIPPED WITH SOME OF THE ENERGY FROM
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER WITH ANY STRONGER ACTIVITY INTO THIS EVENING WITH SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY AROUND. SHOWERS WILL THEN MOVE OUT OF THE CWA
LATER TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF ONE UPPER IMPULSE AND A SFC COOL
FRONT. NOT A LOT OF COOLING BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR WEDS AS THE AIR
MASS IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN. DRY WEDS THROUGH THURSDAY UNDER A
GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW. WARMER AGAIN THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS A BIT OVER THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AFTER A MILD COOL-DOWN IN THE SHORT TERM...WE EXPECT TO SEE
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP BY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND AS UPPER
RIDGING ALOFT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA. TEMPS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
BY SATURDAY WILL AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 70S IN MANY AREAS...WITH
60S ABOVE 7000 FT MSL AND 50S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GFS AND ECMWF
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT BRINGING THE NEXT CHANGE TO THE REGION LATE
IN THE WEEKEND WITH AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO SWING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW THIS NEXT SYSTEM TO BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.  ON THE 12Z
UPDATES...THE ECMWF STILL APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER WITH
THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS...BUT THE GFS HAS TRENDED COLDER IN
THE MIDLEVELS AND IS NOW CLOSER TO THE ECMWF WITH THE 700 MB
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. QPF AMOUNTS IN
LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW A LITTLE LESS ACCUMULATION WHERE SNOW
PERSISTS AS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS CYCLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 535 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING PRODUCING LOCALIZED
MVFR...OTHERWISE VFR PREVAILS. GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING LATE MORNING
WEDNESDAY AND AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CONCERNS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS
WEATHER CONDITIONS GENERALLY NON-CRITICAL.  LOWEST AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES WILL GET TO AROUND 20 PERCENT THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BUT WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH OF A FACTOR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RUBIN
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...GARMON
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...RE







000
FXUS65 KCYS 220232
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
832 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 826 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ONGOING ACROSS OUR COUNTIES
AS OF MID EVENING...FROM CHEYENNE TO CHADRON...AND ALSO ALONG THE
COLD FRONT FROM SARATOGA TO DOUGLAS. FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ALSO
NOTED ACROSS EASTERN CARBON COUNTY.

AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES TO EASTERN
MONTANA BY DAWN...WE WILL SEE A PACIFIC ORIGIN COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS OUR COUNTIES...WITH THE 22/00Z NAM SHOWING SLIGHTLY
MORE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS...THUS HAVE BUMPED UP POPS SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT TO MATCH TRENDS AND NAM MODEL PROGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VORTMAX NOW OVER EASTERN IDAHO WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT INTO WEDS
MORNING WITH THE BULK OF THE ENERGY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
MONTANA. RADAR SHOWING SOME LIGHT ACTIVITY OVER THE NRN COLORADO
MTNS AND ALONG THE WY/NEB BORDER GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE
BUT FAIRLY LIGHT IN INTENSITY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO
THIS EVENING AS THE CWA GETS CLIPPED WITH SOME OF THE ENERGY FROM
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER WITH ANY STRONGER ACTIVITY INTO THIS EVENING WITH SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY AROUND. SHOWERS WILL THEN MOVE OUT OF THE CWA
LATER TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF ONE UPPER IMPULSE AND A SFC COOL
FRONT. NOT A LOT OF COOLING BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR WEDS AS THE AIR
MASS IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN. DRY WEDS THROUGH THURSDAY UNDER A
GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW. WARMER AGAIN THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS A BIT OVER THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AFTER A MILD COOL-DOWN IN THE SHORT TERM...WE EXPECT TO SEE
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP BY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND AS UPPER
RIDGING ALOFT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA. TEMPS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
BY SATURDAY WILL AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 70S IN MANY AREAS...WITH
60S ABOVE 7000 FT MSL AND 50S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GFS AND ECMWF
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT BRINGING THE NEXT CHANGE TO THE REGION LATE
IN THE WEEKEND WITH AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO SWING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW THIS NEXT SYSTEM TO BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.  ON THE 12Z
UPDATES...THE ECMWF STILL APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER WITH
THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS...BUT THE GFS HAS TRENDED COLDER IN
THE MIDLEVELS AND IS NOW CLOSER TO THE ECMWF WITH THE 700 MB
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. QPF AMOUNTS IN
LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW A LITTLE LESS ACCUMULATION WHERE SNOW
PERSISTS AS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS CYCLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 535 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING PRODUCING LOCALIZED
MVFR...OTHERWISE VFR PREVAILS. GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING LATE MORNING
WEDNESDAY AND AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CONCERNS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS
WEATHER CONDITIONS GENERALLY NON-CRITICAL.  LOWEST AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES WILL GET TO AROUND 20 PERCENT THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BUT WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH OF A FACTOR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RUBIN
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...GARMON
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...RE







000
FXUS65 KCYS 212337
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
537 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VORTMAX NOW OVER EASTERN IDAHO WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT INTO WEDS
MORNING WITH THE BULK OF THE ENERGY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
MONTANA. RADAR SHOWING SOME LIGHT ACTIVITY OVER THE NRN COLORADO
MTNS AND ALONG THE WY/NEB BORDER GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE
BUT FAIRLY LIGHT IN INTENSITY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO
THIS EVENING AS THE CWA GETS CLIPPED WITH SOME OF THE ENERGY FROM
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER WITH ANY STRONGER ACTIVITY INTO THIS EVENING WITH SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY AROUND. SHOWERS WILL THEN MOVE OUT OF THE CWA
LATER TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF ONE UPPER IMPULSE AND A SFC COOL
FRONT. NOT A LOT OF COOLING BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR WEDS AS THE AIR
MASS IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN. DRY WEDS THROUGH THURSDAY UNDER A
GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW. WARMER AGAIN THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS A BIT OVER THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AFTER A MILD COOL-DOWN IN THE SHORT TERM...WE EXPECT TO SEE
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP BY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND AS UPPER
RIDGING ALOFT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA. TEMPS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
BY SATURDAY WILL AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 70S IN MANY AREAS...WITH
60S ABOVE 7000 FT MSL AND 50S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GFS AND ECMWF
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT BRINGING THE NEXT CHANGE TO THE REGION LATE
IN THE WEEKEND WITH AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO SWING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW THIS NEXT SYSTEM TO BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.  ON THE 12Z
UPDATES...THE ECMWF STILL APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER WITH
THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS...BUT THE GFS HAS TRENDED COLDER IN
THE MIDLEVELS AND IS NOW CLOSER TO THE ECMWF WITH THE 700 MB
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. QPF AMOUNTS IN
LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW A LITTLE LESS ACCUMULATION WHERE SNOW
PERSISTS AS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS CYCLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 535 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING PRODUCING LOCALIZED
MVFR...OTHERWISE VFR PREVAILS. GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING LATE MORNING
WEDNESDAY AND AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CONCERNS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS
WEATHER CONDITIONS GENERALLY NON-CRITICAL.  LOWEST AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES WILL GET TO AROUND 20 PERCENT THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BUT WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH OF A FACTOR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...GARMON
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...RE







000
FXUS63 KUNR 212330
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
530 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPPER RIDGING HAS PUSHED EWD WITH THE MAIN AXIS NOW CENTERED ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST. A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES IS
SLIDING EAST WITH STRONG SWRLY FLOW OVER THE CWA. SURFACE LOW HAS
DEVELOPED OVER ERN MT WITH BREEZY SRLY WINDS OVER THE CNTRL SD
PLAINS...AND SWRLY WINDS OVER NE WY TO FAR WRN SD.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES. A
COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA
OVERNIGHT. ISLD SHRA WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...BUT LACK OF
MOISTURE WILL WARRANT KEEPING POPS LOW.

LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PUSH EWD INTO CNTRL SD WED
MORNING...CLEARING THE CWA BY EARLY AFTN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE DEPARTING WAVE WILL BRING A RETURN OF SUNNY SKIES TO THE
AREA...AND CLEAR SKIES WED NIGHT. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE
COOLER...MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH BREEZY NW WINDS OVER NW TO CNTRL SD.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WED NIGHT...HAVE DROPPED MIN TEMPS
SLIGHTLY...INTO THE LOWER 30S IN SOME SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL MT INTO
EASTERN CO. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE ABOVE AVERAGE AGAIN WITH
READINGS 10 TO 20F ABOVE AVERAGE. UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING TROUGH TO MOVE OVER THE CWA. RESULT
WILL BE A COOL DOWN SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 518 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT...SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHRA/TS. NO FLT RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO AROUND 25KTS ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC







000
FXUS65 KRIW 212050
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
250 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
A COUPLE OF CONVECTIVE BANDS ASCT WITH A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT/VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PLOWED EAST ACROSS WESTERN WY
THIS MORNING EACH WITH ISOLD LTG STRIKES AND SOME BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL IN SOME AREAS. A SKIFF OF SNOW ON THE GROUND WAS NOTED AT
WIND RIVER LAKE. THE SHOWERS WERE DRYING OUT AS THEY CROSS THE
DIVIDE. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS WITH 50 MPH WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE WIND RIVER BASIN AND EXTEND DOWN INTO SWEETWATER COUNTY
AS INSTABILITY HAS TRUMPED THE DOWNSLOPE DRYING EFFECT. A WELL
DEVELOPED CIRCULATION IS SEEN OVER CENTRAL IDAHO. LONG AFTER THE
DRY SLOT BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION PUNCHES INTO WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WY...WRAP AROUND FROM THE CIRCULATION NOW IN
IDAHO WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS IN NW WY AS
THE SNOW LEVEL DROPS TO 6500 FEET THIS EVENING WITH THESE SHOWERS
DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MOST OF THE QG FORCING WITH
THIS WX SYSTEM WILL REMAIN UP IN MONTANA SO EXPECTING MAINLY LIGHT
PRECIP AMOUNTS TONIGHT IN NW WY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
BEHIND TODAYS COLD FRONT WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME OUT WEST WHERE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS HAVE KEPT THOSE AREAS ON THE COOL SIDE
TODAY...BUT WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER EAST OF THE
DIVIDE. EXPECT SOME WESTERLY BREEZES FROM KRKS TO KCPR AND AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

BRIEF RIDGING OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING SW
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS AS SEVERAL RIPPLES IN
THE FLOW MOVE TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. A STRONG UPPER JET THEN PUSHES
JUST TO THE NORTH LEAVING OUR NRN ZONES IN THE RIGHT EXIT REGION.
CROSS SECTIONS SHOW SOME DECENT 30-40KT MTN TOP FLOW ALONG THE
ABSAROKAS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A WAVE INDUCED CRITICAL LAYER. NOT
SEEING ANY SUSTAINED MOUNTAIN TOP INVERSION BUT AT LEAST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT BASED ON THE SOUNDINGS AND
CROSS SECTIONS. RIGHT NOW...JUST LEANING TOWARDS INCREASED WINDS IN
THE FORECAST THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SPECIFIC
WORDING IN THE HWO FOR WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH OR MORE ALONG THE CODY
FOOTHILLS MAINLY LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK
RIPPLE MAY ACTUALLY PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE NORTH ON
FRIDAY TEMPERING THE HIGHS SOME.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE TEXAS AREA FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WITH DECENT RIDGING UP INTO OUR AREA BEFORE SHIFTING
OFF TO THE EAST SOME AS OUR GULF OF ALASKA UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND
MOVES INLAND. MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THIS EVOLUTION...
ESPECIALLY IN REGARDS TO HOW MUCH SPLITTING THERE WOULD BE. GFS AND
ECMWF ARE MORE IN STEP WITH LESS SPLITTING WITH THIS WEEKEND SYSTEM
ON THEIR 12Z RUNS. MODELS TO A VARYING DEGREE ARE ALSO TRENDING
TOWARD A SECONDARY COLD SHORTWAVE FOLLOWING QUICKLY BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE GEM WHICH IS SLOWER AND HOLDS OFF
UNTIL MONDAY. COULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW IN CENTRAL WYO SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY...ESPECIALLY WHERE
IT PRECIPITATES. WILL WATCH THIS CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
AFTER THAT...FLAT RIDGE REBUILDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY FOR
REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.


&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING SOUTHWEST IDAHO WILL SWING ACROSS NORTHWEST
WYOMING TODAY. CLOUD COVER...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE ON THE DECREASE THROUGH 00Z TODAY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST WY INCLUDING KJAC AND KAFO AS BEST FORCING AND JET ENERGY
PUSH ACROSS WYOMING. HOWEVER...EAST OF THE DIVIDE...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS HOT SPRINGS AND FREMONT
COUNTIES ALONG WITH 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS...INCLUDING KRIW AND KLND
THROUGH 22Z. HOWEVER...MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHWEST WY INCLUDING YELLOWSTONE PARK AS SNOW LEVELS DROP TO
6500 FEET THROUGH THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE
CIRCULATION NOW OVER IDAHO THAT WILL TRACK TO MT. MOUNTAIN TOP
OBSCURATIONS WILL BE WIDESPREAD THROUGH ABOUT 21Z-23Z BEFORE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWING EAST OF KJAC BUT WILL
LINGER THROUGH 06Z AT YNP. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
AT KJAC WITH A HEAVIER RAIN SHOWER THROUGH 21Z TODAY.
OTHERWISE...KJAC WILL REMAIN VFR WITH RAPID CLEARING BETWEEN
23Z/TODAY AND 02Z/WED. OTHER TERMINALS WILL ALL BE VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECT ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO GENERATE
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING...AFFECTING THE KRKS TERMINAL
THROUGH 22Z OR SO. MUCH MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION ELSEWHERE.
LARGER ISSUE EAST OF THE DIVIDE WILL BE DOWNSLOPE WINDS NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AND GUSTY SOUTH TO WEST SURFACE WIND.
WINDS WILL BE 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS 25-35KTS. STRONGEST NON
THUNDERSTORM WINDS WILL BE THROUGH 23Z THIS AFTERNOON AT KCPR
WHERE 25G35KTS IS LIKELY. TROUGH PASSAGE BETWEEN 00Z- 06Z/WED WILL
VEER WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST WITH DECREASING SPEEDS AFTER SUNSET.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE KRIW WHERE FAVORABLE NORTHWEST WIND OF
15-25KTS IS LIKELY THROUGH ABOUT 06Z/WED. ALL TERMINALS WILL SEE
RAPID CLEARING FROM THE WEST BEGINNING AT 00Z/WED AND CONTINUING
THROUGH 06Z/WED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL LIMIT CHANCES FOR WETTING
RAIN EAST...WHILE MORE FAVORABLE FLOW WILL MAXIMIZE POTENTIAL
ALONG WEST FACING SLOPES ALONG AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY
NORTHWEST WYOMING THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH TONIGHT...CHANGING THE WIND DIRECTION TO MORE WESTERLY EVERYWHERE.
THE WIND AND THE RAIN WILL CLEAR OUT ON WEDNESDAY WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES REMAINING. TEMPERATURES REBOUND A BIT ON THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH BUT IT WILL BE ANOTHER
BREEZY DAY IN SPOTS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH COMMON
BETWEEN ROCK SPRINGS AND CASPER AND OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...LIPSON
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON






000
FXUS65 KCYS 212035
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
235 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VORTMAX NOW OVER EASTERN IDAHO WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT INTO WEDS
MORNING WITH THE BULK OF THE ENERGY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
MONTANA. RADAR SHOWING SOME LIGHT ACTIVITY OVER THE NRN COLORADO
MTNS AND ALONG THE WY/NEB BORDER GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE
BUT FAIRLY LIGHT IN INTENSITY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO
THIS EVENING AS THE CWA GETS CLIPPED WITH SOME OF THE ENERGY FROM
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER WITH ANY STRONGER ACTIVITY INTO THIS EVENING WITH SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY AROUND. SHOWERS WILL THEN MOVE OUT OF THE CWA
LATER TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF ONE UPPER IMPULSE AND A SFC COOL
FRONT. NOT A LOT OF COOLING BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR WEDS AS THE AIR
MASS IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN. DRY WEDS THROUGH THURSDAY UNDER A
GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW. WARMER AGAIN THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS A BIT OVER THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AFTER A MILD COOL-DOWN IN THE SHORT TERM...WE EXPECT TO SEE
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP BY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND AS UPPER
RIDGING ALOFT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA. TEMPS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
BY SATURDAY WILL AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 70S IN MANY AREAS...WITH
60S ABOVE 7000 FT MSL AND 50S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GFS AND ECMWF
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT BRINGING THE NEXT CHANGE TO THE REGION LATE
IN THE WEEKEND WITH AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO SWING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW THIS NEXT SYSTEM TO BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.  ON THE 12Z
UPDATES...THE ECMWF STILL APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER WITH
THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS...BUT THE GFS HAS TRENDED COLDER IN
THE MIDLEVELS AND IS NOW CLOSER TO THE ECMWF WITH THE 700 MB
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. QPF AMOUNTS IN
LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW A LITTLE LESS ACCUMULATION WHERE SNOW
PERSISTS AS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS CYCLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE RAWLINS AREA AROUND 6 PM THIS EVENING AND
PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE WESTERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THERE IS JUST
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO POP UP
STARTING MID AFTERNOON IN THE RAWLINS AND LARAMIE AREAS. LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH MODEL SUGGESTS MOSTLY SHOWERS WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESSING EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH MODEST UPPER LEVEL
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMUM.
NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OR STORMS TO WARRANT A PREVAILING
PERIOD OF LOWERED VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS IN THE FORECAST, SO WE
CARRIED VFR CATEGORY PREVAILING ALL PERIODS WITH A VICINITY
MENTION OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MID
EVENING FOR MOST SITES. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL WEAKEN AS WE GO INTO THE LATE EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CONCERNS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS
WEATHER CONDITIONS GENERALLY NON-CRITICAL.  LOWEST AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES WILL GET TO AROUND 20 PERCENT THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BUT WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH OF A FACTOR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...GARMON
AVIATION...GARMON
FIRE WEATHER...RE









000
FXUS63 KUNR 212033
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
233 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPPER RIDGING HAS PUSHED EWD WITH THE MAIN AXIS NOW CENTERED ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST. A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES IS
SLIDING EAST WITH STRONG SWRLY FLOW OVER THE CWA. SURFACE LOW HAS
DEVELOPED OVER ERN MT WITH BREEZY SRLY WINDS OVER THE CNTRL SD
PLAINS...AND SWRLY WINDS OVER NE WY TO FAR WRN SD.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES. A
COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA
OVERNIGHT. ISLD SHRA WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...BUT LACK OF
MOISTURE WILL WARRANT KEEPING POPS LOW.

LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PUSH EWD INTO CNTRL SD WED
MORNING...CLEARING THE CWA BY EARLY AFTN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE DEPARTING WAVE WILL BRING A RETURN OF SUNNY SKIES TO THE
AREA...AND CLEAR SKIES WED NIGHT. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE
COOLER...MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH BREEZY NW WINDS OVER NW TO CNTRL SD.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WED NIGHT...HAVE DROPPED MIN TEMPS
SLIGHTLY...INTO THE LOWER 30S IN SOME SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL MT INTO
EASTERN CO. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE ABOVE AVERAGE AGAIN WITH
READINGS 10 TO 20F ABOVE AVERAGE. UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING TROUGH TO MOVE OVER THE CWA. RESULT
WILL BE A COOL DOWN SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30KTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST
WY AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS TO AROUND 25KTS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY. A FEW HIGH BASED -SHRA ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS NOT EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON







000
FXUS65 KRIW 212026
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
225 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

SWIFT SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ELEVATED BUT BELOW WARNING
CRITERIA...MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO LIGHT TRAILERS AND HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES...ESPECIALLY IN SWEETWATER COUNTY...SOUTHEAST FREMONT AND
NATRONA COUNTIES. LATER ON THIS EVENING...THE STRONGER WINDS WILL BE
FOUND ALONG THE ABSAROKAS AND INTO THE CODY FOOTHILLS...AND UPPER
WIND RIVER BASIN AS THE FLOW TURNS A LITTLE MORE WESTERLY
...INCREASING THE BREAKING MOUNTAIN WAVE THREAT. FLOW WILL LIKELY BE
TOO QUICK AND SOUTHWESTERLY AT FIRST AND WILL SAIL RIGHT OVER THE
BARRIER BUT THERE COULD BE SOME BREAKING ACTION EARLY IN THE
EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN WEST CODY AND AROUND CLARK AS WINDS VEER
MORE WESTERLY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AS THE SUBSIDENCE LEFT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET SAILS BY EARLY IN THE EVENING FOLLOWED BY
SOME BROAD BUT WEAKER FORCING FOR DESCENT BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH.

WHILE THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST SOME RAIN AND SNOW...WITH ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
DIVIDE...INCLUDING SWEETWATER COUNTY. DOWNSLOPING EAST OF THE DIVIDE
SHOULD LIMIT ANY PRECIPITATION THERE. THERE WILL BE SOME JET
ENERGY..WEAK INSTABILITY AND SOME QG FORCING HELPING TO MAXIMIZE THE
POTENTIAL OF THIS WAVE SO THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS MAKE IT OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE TAKEN THE BULK OF THE ENERGY
FROM THIS WAVE A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT POPS
LARGELY LEFT ALONE...WITH SOME TRIMMING IN A FEW AREAS BUT OVERALL
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN BACKING OFF ON H7 TEMPERATURES ALONG AND
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SNOW LEVELS WILL NOW BE ONLY AS LOW AS 8KFT
ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS LOWERING TO 6.5KFT THIS EVENING BEFORE
THE SYSTEM EXITS...HIGHER AS YOU HEAD EAST. THE FRONT EVENTUALLY
MAKES IT ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT...WITH THE COOLER
AIRMASS HANGING AROUND INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MODERATION ON
THURSDAY. THURSDAY COULD ALSO BE A BREEZY DAY AS A TUG OF WAR
BETWEEN THE COLD BUT DYNAMIC TROUGH TO OUR NORTH AND THE RIDGE
POKING IN FROM THE SOUTH. OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE WILL WIN
OUT IN OUR AREA WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SYNOPSIS...UNSEASONABLY MILD AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WYOMING ALONG WITH BREEZY/WINDY AREAS.  A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
WYOMING ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.  A DRIER AND COOL AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW ON MONDAY.

DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW OVER SW ALASKA EARLY THIS MORNING IS FORECAST
TO WOBBLE SE ALONG THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH UPPER TROUGH
SHARPENING AND BECOMING MORE UPRIGHT OFF THE WEST COAST ON
FRIDAY...PUMPING UP RIDGE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.  MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT UP TO THIS POINT.  MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE
APPARENT AS THE TROUGH MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY WITH THE GFS SHEARING LEAD SHORTWAVE NE ACROSS
IDAHO/WESTERN MONTANA ON SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A SLOWER
MUCH MORE SPLIT TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY.  GFS
AND EC RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORT SLOWER OVERALL PROGRESSION
THAN GFS AND NOT AS MUCH SPLITTING AS ECMWF DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE.
FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE ENSEMBLE MEANS WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING
INTO THE WEST LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING POPS
ACROSS THE WEST AND SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.  GEFS MEAN KEEP THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION NORTH AND
WEST OF WYOMING WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW KEEPING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
LOW EAST OF THE DIVIDE.  ENSEMBLE MEANS ALSO SHOW HEIGHTS REBOUNDING
A BIT QUICKER MONDAY AS NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES THE NW COAST WITH
FLAT RIDGING OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY.  FORECAST KEEPS LOW POPS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE BASINS AND VALLEYS.  MILDER...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

SHORTWAVE APPROACHING SOUTHWEST IDAHO WILL SWING ACROSS NORTHWEST
WYOMING TODAY. CLOUD COVER...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE ON THE DECREASE THROUGH 00Z TODAY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST WY INCLUDING KJAC AND KAFO AS BEST FORCING AND JET ENERGY
PUSH ACROSS WYOMING. HOWEVER...EAST OF THE DIVIDE...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS HOT SPRINGS AND FREMONT
COUNTIES ALONG WITH 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS...INCLUDING KRIW AND KLND.
HOWEVER...MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHWEST WY
INCLUDING YELLOWSTONE PARK AS SNOW LEVELS DROP TO 6500 FEET THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE CIRCULATION NOW OVER IDAHO
THAT WILL TRACK TO MT. MOUNTAIN TOP OBSCURATIONS WILL BE WIDESPREAD
THROUGH ABOUT 21Z-23Z BEFORE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWING
EAST OF KJAC BUT WILL LINGER THROUGH 06Z AT YNP. CANNOT RULE OUT A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR AT KJAC WITH A HEAVIER RAIN SHOWER THROUGH 21Z
TODAY. OTHERWISE...KJAC WILL REMAIN VFR WITH RAPID CLEARING BETWEEN
23Z/TODAY AND 02Z/WED. OTHER TERMINALS WILL ALL BE VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECT ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO GENERATE
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING...MAINLY AFFECTING
KBPI...KPNA...AND KRKS TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. MUCH MORE
ISOLATED CONVECTION ELSEWHERE. LARGER ISSUE EAST OF THE DIVIDE WILL
BE DOWNSLOPE WINDS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AND GUSTY SOUTH
TO WEST SURFACE WIND. WINDS WILL BE 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS 25-35KTS.
STRONGEST WIND WILL BE THROUGH 23Z THIS AFTERNOON AT KCPR WHERE
25G35KTS IS LIKELY. TROUGH PASSAGE BETWEEN 00Z-06Z/WED WILL VEER
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST WITH DECREASING SPEEDS AFTER SUNSET. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE KRIW WHERE FAVORABLE NORTHWEST WIND OF 15-25KTS IS
LIKELY THROUGH ABOUT 06Z/WED. ALL TERMINALS WILL SEE RAPID CLEARING
FROM THE WEST BEGINNING AT 00Z/WED AND CONTINUING THROUGH 06Z/WED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM AND WINDY DAY EAST OF THE DIVIDE WHILE A
STORM MOVES INTO THE WEST. DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL LIMIT CHANCES FOR
WETTING RAIN EAST...WHILE MORE FAVORABLE FLOW WILL MAXIMIZE
POTENTIAL ALONG WEST FACING SLOPES ALONG AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE.
THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME WETTING RAINS IN RAWLINS DISPATCH AREA. A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH TONIGHT...CHANGING THE WIND DIRECTION TO
MORE WESTERLY. THE WIND AND THE RAIN WILL CLEAR OUT ON WEDNESDAY
WITH COOL TEMPERATURES REMAINING. TEMPERATURES REBOUND A BIT ON
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH BUT IT WILL BE
ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IN SPOTS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH
COMMON BETWEEN ROCK SPRINGS AND CASPER AND OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ALLEN
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...CNJ/LIPSON
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN
















000
FXUS65 KRIW 211905
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
104 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

SWIFT SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ELEVATED BUT BELOW WARNING
CRITERIA...MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO LIGHT TRAILERS AND HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES...ESPECIALLY IN SWEETWATER COUNTY...SOUTHEAST FREMONT AND
NATRONA COUNTIES. LATER ON THIS EVENING...THE STRONGER WINDS WILL BE
FOUND ALONG THE ABSAROKAS AND INTO THE CODY FOOTHILLS...AND UPPER
WIND RIVER BASIN AS THE FLOW TURNS A LITTLE MORE WESTERLY
...INCREASING THE BREAKING MOUNTAIN WAVE THREAT. FLOW WILL LIKELY BE
TOO QUICK AND SOUTHWESTERLY AT FIRST AND WILL SAIL RIGHT OVER THE
BARRIER BUT THERE COULD BE SOME BREAKING ACTION EARLY IN THE
EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN WEST CODY AND AROUND CLARK AS WINDS VEER
MORE WESTERLY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AS THE SUBSIDENCE LEFT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET SAILS BY EARLY IN THE EVENING FOLLOWED BY
SOME BROAD BUT WEAKER FORCING FOR DESCENT BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH.

WHILE THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST SOME RAIN AND SNOW...WITH ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
DIVIDE...INCLUDING SWEETWATER COUNTY. DOWNSLOPING EAST OF THE DIVIDE
SHOULD LIMIT ANY PRECIPITATION THERE. THERE WILL BE SOME JET
ENERGY..WEAK INSTABILITY AND SOME QG FORCING HELPING TO MAXIMIZE THE
POTENTIAL OF THIS WAVE SO THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS MAKE IT OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE TAKEN THE BULK OF THE ENERGY
FROM THIS WAVE A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT POPS
LARGELY LEFT ALONE...WITH SOME TRIMMING IN A FEW AREAS BUT OVERALL
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN BACKING OFF ON H7 TEMPERATURES ALONG AND
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SNOW LEVELS WILL NOW BE ONLY AS LOW AS 8KFT
ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS LOWERING TO 6.5KFT THIS EVENING BEFORE
THE SYSTEM EXITS...HIGHER AS YOU HEAD EAST. THE FRONT EVENTUALLY
MAKES IT ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT...WITH THE COOLER
AIRMASS HANGING AROUND INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MODERATION ON
THURSDAY. THURSDAY COULD ALSO BE A BREEZY DAY AS A TUG OF WAR
BETWEEN THE COLD BUT DYNAMIC TROUGH TO OUR NORTH AND THE RIDGE
POKING IN FROM THE SOUTH. OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE WILL WIN
OUT IN OUR AREA WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SYNOPSIS...UNSEASONABLY MILD AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WYOMING ALONG WITH BREEZY/WINDY AREAS.  A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
WYOMING ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.  A DRIER AND COOL AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW ON MONDAY.

DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW OVER SW ALASKA EARLY THIS MORNING IS FORECAST
TO WOBBLE SE ALONG THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH UPPER TROUGH
SHARPENING AND BECOMING MORE UPRIGHT OFF THE WEST COAST ON
FRIDAY...PUMPING UP RIDGE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.  MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT UP TO THIS POINT.  MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE
APPARENT AS THE TROUGH MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY WITH THE GFS SHEARING LEAD SHORTWAVE NE ACROSS
IDAHO/WESTERN MONTANA ON SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A SLOWER
MUCH MORE SPLIT TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY.  GFS
AND EC RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORT SLOWER OVERALL PROGRESSION
THAN GFS AND NOT AS MUCH SPLITTING AS ECMWF DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE.
FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE ENSEMBLE MEANS WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING
INTO THE WEST LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING POPS
ACROSS THE WEST AND SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.  GEFS MEAN KEEP THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION NORTH AND
WEST OF WYOMING WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW KEEPING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
LOW EAST OF THE DIVIDE.  ENSEMBLE MEANS ALSO SHOW HEIGHTS REBOUNDING
A BIT QUICKER MONDAY AS NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES THE NW COAST WITH
FLAT RIDGING OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY.  FORECAST KEEPS LOW POPS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE BASINS AND VALLEYS.  MILDER...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

SHORTWAVE APPROACHING SOUTHWEST IDAHO WILL SWING ACROSS NORTHWEST
WYOMING TODAY. CLOUD COVER...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE ON THE DECREASE THROUGH 00Z TODAY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST WY INCLUDING KJAC AND KAFO AS BEST FORCING AND JET ENERGY
PUSH ACROSS WYOMING. HOWEVER...MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS NORTHWEST WY INCLUDING YELLOWSTONE PARK AS SNOW LEVELS DROP
TO 6500 FEET THROUGH THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE
CIRCULATION NOW OVER IDAHO THAT WILL TRACK TO MT. MOUNTAIN TOP
OBSCURATIONS WILL BE WIDESPREAD THROUGH ABOUT 21Z-23Z BEFORE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWING EAST OF KJAC BUT WILL LINGER THROUGH
06Z AT YNP. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR AT KJAC WITH A
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWER THROUGH 21Z TODAY. OTHERWISE...KJAC WILL REMAIN
VFR WITH RAPID CLEARING BETWEEN 23Z/TODAY AND 02Z/WED. OTHER TERMINALS
WILL ALL BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE TO GENERATE CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING...MAINLY
AFFECTING KBPI...KPNA...AND KRKS TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
MUCH MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION ELSEWHERE. LARGER ISSUE EAST OF THE
DIVIDE WILL BE DOWNSLOPE WINDS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AND
GUSTY SOUTH TO WEST SURFACE WIND. WINDS WILL BE 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS
25-35KTS. STRONGEST WIND WILL BE THROUGH 23Z THIS AFTERNOON AT KCPR
WHERE 25G35KTS IS LIKELY. TROUGH PASSAGE BETWEEN 00Z-06Z/WED WILL
VEER WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST WITH DECREASING SPEEDS AFTER SUNSET. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE KRIW WHERE FAVORABLE NORTHWEST WIND OF 15-25KTS IS
LIKELY THROUGH ABOUT 06Z/WED. ALL TERMINALS WILL SEE RAPID CLEARING
FROM THE WEST BEGINNING AT 00Z/WED AND CONTINUING THROUGH 06Z/WED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM AND WINDY DAY EAST OF THE DIVIDE WHILE A
STORM MOVES INTO THE WEST. DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL LIMIT CHANCES FOR
WETTING RAIN EAST...WHILE MORE FAVORABLE FLOW WILL MAXIMIZE
POTENTIAL ALONG WEST FACING SLOPES ALONG AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE.
THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME WETTING RAINS IN RAWLINS DISPATCH AREA. A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH TONIGHT...CHANGING THE WIND DIRECTION TO
MORE WESTERLY. THE WIND AND THE RAIN WILL CLEAR OUT ON WEDNESDAY
WITH COOL TEMPERATURES REMAINING. TEMPERATURES REBOUND A BIT ON
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH BUT IT WILL BE
ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IN SPOTS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH
COMMON BETWEEN ROCK SPRINGS AND CASPER AND OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ALLEN
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...CNJ/LIPSON
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN













000
FXUS65 KCYS 211743 AAA
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1143 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CURRENT IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE
DEVELOPING AND PUSHING NORTHWARD OVER COLORADO. A VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN BEING
REPORTED ACROSS NAN NEVADA AND IDAHO. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY THIS MORNING ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS THIS
TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO WESTERN WYOMING BY THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST TODAY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
SOMETIME LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS NOT MUCH THAT IS
REALLY IMPRESSIVE ABOUT THIS SYSTEM AS IT EJECTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
WYOMING AND MONTANA THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL MODELS INDICATE A WEAKENING
JET ALOFT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN WEAK UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. THIS
WEAKENING APPEARS TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THERE IS SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY PRESENT AND SOME WEAK LARGE SCALE LIFT...SO
INCREASED POP BETWEEN 25 TO 35 PERCENT ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING.  CAN
NOT RULE OUT A FEW THUNDER SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
AS WELL AS LI/S LOWER BETWEEN ZERO AND -2. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
PRIMARILY BE RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME SNOW IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.
PRECIS WILL BE LIGHT WITH PF VALUES BELOW 0.25...AND MOST
LOCATIONS ONLY SEEING A TRACE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF LIQUID.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...AND BETWEEN 70 TO 80 DEGREES ALONG AND
EAST OF I25 INCLUDING WESTERN NEBRASKA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT...BUT WILL STILL BE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
AND GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S. KEPT POP BELOW 15
PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE I80 CORRIDOR
NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES DUE TO LLVL INSTABILITY AND SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO EXTEND NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CONTINUED DRY AND BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE LONG
TERM. BUT THERE ARE CHANGES COMING UP.

UPPER RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO PASS OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS
SHOWING 700MB WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 40KTS BY FRIDAY MORNING AS
THE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. GOING TO BE
PRETTY WARM WITH THESE STRONGER...DOWNSLOPING WINDS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HAVE HIGHS BOTH DAYS APPROACHING 80 IN THE PANHANDLE.
GFS 700MB TEMPERATURES ARE +8 TO +10C OVER THE CWFA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT.

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH CONTINUE TO SHOW A CHANGE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. ECMWF STRONGER ON THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE GFS AND HAS THE
SHORTWAVE TRACKING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. DID BUMP UP POPS FOR
THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES OF -4 TO -6C...A LOT OF
THIS PRECIP COULD FALL AS SNOW. SHOULD THE ECMWF SOLUTION HOLD
TRUE...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT WINTER HEADLINES AS TOTAL PF
FORECAST CLOSE TO .75 INCHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE RAWLINS AREA AROUND 6 PM THIS EVENING AND
PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE WESTERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THERE IS JUST
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO POP UP
STARTING MID AFTERNOON IN THE RAWLINS AND LARAMIE AREAS. LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH MODEL SUGGESTS MOSTLY SHOWERS WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESSING EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH MODEST UPPER LEVEL
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMUM.
NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OR STORMS TO WARRANT A PREVAILING
PERIOD OF LOWERED VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS IN THE FORECAST, SO WE
CARRIED VFR CATEGORY PREVAILING ALL PERIODS WITH A VICINITY
MENTION OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MID
EVENING FOR MOST SITES. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL WEAKEN AS WE GO INTO THE LATE EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 150 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK WITH DAYTIME HUMIDITIES
MAINLY BETWEEN 20 TO 35 PERCENT. BREEZY OR WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS WYOMING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG INTERSTATE 80 THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER
WEDNESDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...GARMON
FIRE WEATHER...TJT







000
FXUS63 KUNR 211707
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1107 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY COVERS THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH A
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WEST COAST. SURFACE HIGH IS TO THE EAST
AND SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST WEST OF THE AREA. BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE KEEPING TEMPS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

UNDER SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTHWEST DOWN-SLOPING FLOW...HIGHS WILL BE
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S. TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE INCOMING
TROUGH AND EXITING SURFACE HIGH WILL CREATE SOME GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD...WHERE WINDS COULD
APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. MOIST AIR WILL BE ADVECTED INTO
WESTERN SD...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.

TONIGHT THE UPPER WAVE WILL PUSH EASTWARD...AND A COOL FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE CWA. COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL SD...WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE.

NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY ON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SD PLAINS. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
PUTTING THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD ON
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE OUT OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY
IN THE 60S...WITH 50S IN THE HILLS.



&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL MT INTO
EASTERN CO. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN WITH
READINGS 10-15F ABOVE NORMAL. UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING TROUGH TO MOVE OVER THE CWA. RESULT WILL
BE COOL-DOWN ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT...MIGHT BE SOME
-SHSN OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1104 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30KTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST
WY AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS TO AROUND 25KTS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY. A FEW HIGH BASED -SHRA ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS NOT EXPECTED. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...JOHNSON







000
FXUS65 KCYS 211136
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
536 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CURRENT IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE
DEVELOPING AND PUSHING NORTHWARD OVER COLORADO. A VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN BEING
REPORTED ACROSS NAN NEVADA AND IDAHO. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY THIS MORNING ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS THIS
TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO WESTERN WYOMING BY THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST TODAY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
SOMETIME LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS NOT MUCH THAT IS
REALLY IMPRESSIVE ABOUT THIS SYSTEM AS IT EJECTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
WYOMING AND MONTANA THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL MODELS INDICATE A WEAKENING
JET ALOFT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN WEAK UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. THIS
WEAKENING APPEARS TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THERE IS SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY PRESENT AND SOME WEAK LARGE SCALE LIFT...SO
INCREASED POP BETWEEN 25 TO 35 PERCENT ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING.  CAN
NOT RULE OUT A FEW THUNDER SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
AS WELL AS LI/S LOWER BETWEEN ZERO AND -2. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
PRIMARILY BE RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME SNOW IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.
PRECIS WILL BE LIGHT WITH PF VALUES BELOW 0.25...AND MOST
LOCATIONS ONLY SEEING A TRACE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF LIQUID.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...AND BETWEEN 70 TO 80 DEGREES ALONG AND
EAST OF I25 INCLUDING WESTERN NEBRASKA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT...BUT WILL STILL BE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
AND GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S. KEPT POP BELOW 15
PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE I80 CORRIDOR
NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES DUE TO LLVL INSTABILITY AND SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO EXTEND NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CONTINUED DRY AND BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE LONG
TERM. BUT THERE ARE CHANGES COMING UP.

UPPER RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO PASS OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS
SHOWING 700MB WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 40KTS BY FRIDAY MORNING AS
THE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. GOING TO BE
PRETTY WARM WITH THESE STRONGER...DOWNSLOPING WINDS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HAVE HIGHS BOTH DAYS APPROACHING 80 IN THE PANHANDLE.
GFS 700MB TEMPERATURES ARE +8 TO +10C OVER THE CWFA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT.

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH CONTINUE TO SHOW A CHANGE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. ECMWF STRONGER ON THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE GFS AND HAS THE
SHORTWAVE TRACKING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. DID BUMP UP POPS FOR
THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES OF -4 TO -6C...A LOT OF
THIS PRECIP COULD FALL AS SNOW. SHOULD THE ECMWF SOLUTION HOLD
TRUE...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT WINTER HEADLINES AS TOTAL PF
FORECAST CLOSE TO .75 INCHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z FATS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY AND WILL BRING SOME
SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FOR LARK AND
KRWL. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER COLORADO THOUGH AND OUR PANHANDLE
AIRPORTS AS WELL AS KCYS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. VFR WITH GUSTY WEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 150 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK WITH DAYTIME HUMIDITIES
MAINLY BETWEEN 20 TO 35 PERCENT. BREEZY OR WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS WYOMING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG INTERSTATE 80 THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER
WEDNESDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...TJT







000
FXUS65 KCYS 211136
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
536 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CURRENT IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE
DEVELOPING AND PUSHING NORTHWARD OVER COLORADO. A VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN BEING
REPORTED ACROSS NAN NEVADA AND IDAHO. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY THIS MORNING ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS THIS
TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO WESTERN WYOMING BY THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST TODAY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
SOMETIME LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS NOT MUCH THAT IS
REALLY IMPRESSIVE ABOUT THIS SYSTEM AS IT EJECTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
WYOMING AND MONTANA THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL MODELS INDICATE A WEAKENING
JET ALOFT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN WEAK UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. THIS
WEAKENING APPEARS TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THERE IS SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY PRESENT AND SOME WEAK LARGE SCALE LIFT...SO
INCREASED POP BETWEEN 25 TO 35 PERCENT ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING.  CAN
NOT RULE OUT A FEW THUNDER SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
AS WELL AS LI/S LOWER BETWEEN ZERO AND -2. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
PRIMARILY BE RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME SNOW IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.
PRECIS WILL BE LIGHT WITH PF VALUES BELOW 0.25...AND MOST
LOCATIONS ONLY SEEING A TRACE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF LIQUID.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...AND BETWEEN 70 TO 80 DEGREES ALONG AND
EAST OF I25 INCLUDING WESTERN NEBRASKA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT...BUT WILL STILL BE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
AND GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S. KEPT POP BELOW 15
PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE I80 CORRIDOR
NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES DUE TO LLVL INSTABILITY AND SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO EXTEND NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CONTINUED DRY AND BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE LONG
TERM. BUT THERE ARE CHANGES COMING UP.

UPPER RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO PASS OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS
SHOWING 700MB WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 40KTS BY FRIDAY MORNING AS
THE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. GOING TO BE
PRETTY WARM WITH THESE STRONGER...DOWNSLOPING WINDS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HAVE HIGHS BOTH DAYS APPROACHING 80 IN THE PANHANDLE.
GFS 700MB TEMPERATURES ARE +8 TO +10C OVER THE CWFA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT.

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH CONTINUE TO SHOW A CHANGE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. ECMWF STRONGER ON THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE GFS AND HAS THE
SHORTWAVE TRACKING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. DID BUMP UP POPS FOR
THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES OF -4 TO -6C...A LOT OF
THIS PRECIP COULD FALL AS SNOW. SHOULD THE ECMWF SOLUTION HOLD
TRUE...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT WINTER HEADLINES AS TOTAL PF
FORECAST CLOSE TO .75 INCHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z FATS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY AND WILL BRING SOME
SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FOR LARK AND
KRWL. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER COLORADO THOUGH AND OUR PANHANDLE
AIRPORTS AS WELL AS KCYS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. VFR WITH GUSTY WEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 150 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK WITH DAYTIME HUMIDITIES
MAINLY BETWEEN 20 TO 35 PERCENT. BREEZY OR WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS WYOMING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG INTERSTATE 80 THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER
WEDNESDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...TJT






000
FXUS65 KCYS 211136
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
536 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CURRENT IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE
DEVELOPING AND PUSHING NORTHWARD OVER COLORADO. A VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN BEING
REPORTED ACROSS NAN NEVADA AND IDAHO. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY THIS MORNING ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS THIS
TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO WESTERN WYOMING BY THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST TODAY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
SOMETIME LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS NOT MUCH THAT IS
REALLY IMPRESSIVE ABOUT THIS SYSTEM AS IT EJECTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
WYOMING AND MONTANA THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL MODELS INDICATE A WEAKENING
JET ALOFT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN WEAK UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. THIS
WEAKENING APPEARS TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THERE IS SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY PRESENT AND SOME WEAK LARGE SCALE LIFT...SO
INCREASED POP BETWEEN 25 TO 35 PERCENT ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING.  CAN
NOT RULE OUT A FEW THUNDER SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
AS WELL AS LI/S LOWER BETWEEN ZERO AND -2. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
PRIMARILY BE RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME SNOW IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.
PRECIS WILL BE LIGHT WITH PF VALUES BELOW 0.25...AND MOST
LOCATIONS ONLY SEEING A TRACE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF LIQUID.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...AND BETWEEN 70 TO 80 DEGREES ALONG AND
EAST OF I25 INCLUDING WESTERN NEBRASKA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT...BUT WILL STILL BE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
AND GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S. KEPT POP BELOW 15
PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE I80 CORRIDOR
NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES DUE TO LLVL INSTABILITY AND SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO EXTEND NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CONTINUED DRY AND BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE LONG
TERM. BUT THERE ARE CHANGES COMING UP.

UPPER RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO PASS OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS
SHOWING 700MB WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 40KTS BY FRIDAY MORNING AS
THE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. GOING TO BE
PRETTY WARM WITH THESE STRONGER...DOWNSLOPING WINDS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HAVE HIGHS BOTH DAYS APPROACHING 80 IN THE PANHANDLE.
GFS 700MB TEMPERATURES ARE +8 TO +10C OVER THE CWFA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT.

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH CONTINUE TO SHOW A CHANGE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. ECMWF STRONGER ON THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE GFS AND HAS THE
SHORTWAVE TRACKING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. DID BUMP UP POPS FOR
THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES OF -4 TO -6C...A LOT OF
THIS PRECIP COULD FALL AS SNOW. SHOULD THE ECMWF SOLUTION HOLD
TRUE...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT WINTER HEADLINES AS TOTAL PF
FORECAST CLOSE TO .75 INCHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z FATS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY AND WILL BRING SOME
SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FOR LARK AND
KRWL. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER COLORADO THOUGH AND OUR PANHANDLE
AIRPORTS AS WELL AS KCYS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. VFR WITH GUSTY WEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 150 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK WITH DAYTIME HUMIDITIES
MAINLY BETWEEN 20 TO 35 PERCENT. BREEZY OR WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS WYOMING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG INTERSTATE 80 THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER
WEDNESDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...TJT






000
FXUS65 KCYS 211136
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
536 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CURRENT IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE
DEVELOPING AND PUSHING NORTHWARD OVER COLORADO. A VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN BEING
REPORTED ACROSS NAN NEVADA AND IDAHO. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY THIS MORNING ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS THIS
TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO WESTERN WYOMING BY THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST TODAY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
SOMETIME LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS NOT MUCH THAT IS
REALLY IMPRESSIVE ABOUT THIS SYSTEM AS IT EJECTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
WYOMING AND MONTANA THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL MODELS INDICATE A WEAKENING
JET ALOFT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN WEAK UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. THIS
WEAKENING APPEARS TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THERE IS SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY PRESENT AND SOME WEAK LARGE SCALE LIFT...SO
INCREASED POP BETWEEN 25 TO 35 PERCENT ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING.  CAN
NOT RULE OUT A FEW THUNDER SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
AS WELL AS LI/S LOWER BETWEEN ZERO AND -2. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
PRIMARILY BE RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME SNOW IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.
PRECIS WILL BE LIGHT WITH PF VALUES BELOW 0.25...AND MOST
LOCATIONS ONLY SEEING A TRACE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF LIQUID.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...AND BETWEEN 70 TO 80 DEGREES ALONG AND
EAST OF I25 INCLUDING WESTERN NEBRASKA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT...BUT WILL STILL BE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
AND GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S. KEPT POP BELOW 15
PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE I80 CORRIDOR
NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES DUE TO LLVL INSTABILITY AND SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO EXTEND NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CONTINUED DRY AND BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE LONG
TERM. BUT THERE ARE CHANGES COMING UP.

UPPER RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO PASS OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS
SHOWING 700MB WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 40KTS BY FRIDAY MORNING AS
THE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. GOING TO BE
PRETTY WARM WITH THESE STRONGER...DOWNSLOPING WINDS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HAVE HIGHS BOTH DAYS APPROACHING 80 IN THE PANHANDLE.
GFS 700MB TEMPERATURES ARE +8 TO +10C OVER THE CWFA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT.

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH CONTINUE TO SHOW A CHANGE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. ECMWF STRONGER ON THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE GFS AND HAS THE
SHORTWAVE TRACKING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. DID BUMP UP POPS FOR
THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES OF -4 TO -6C...A LOT OF
THIS PRECIP COULD FALL AS SNOW. SHOULD THE ECMWF SOLUTION HOLD
TRUE...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT WINTER HEADLINES AS TOTAL PF
FORECAST CLOSE TO .75 INCHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z FATS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY AND WILL BRING SOME
SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FOR LARK AND
KRWL. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER COLORADO THOUGH AND OUR PANHANDLE
AIRPORTS AS WELL AS KCYS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. VFR WITH GUSTY WEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 150 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK WITH DAYTIME HUMIDITIES
MAINLY BETWEEN 20 TO 35 PERCENT. BREEZY OR WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS WYOMING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG INTERSTATE 80 THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER
WEDNESDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...TJT







000
FXUS65 KRIW 210930
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
330 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

SWIFT SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ELEVATED BUT BELOW WARNING
CRITERIA...MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO LIGHT TRAILERS AND HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES...ESPECIALLY IN SWEETWATER COUNTY...SOUTHEAST FREMONT AND
NATRONA COUNTIES. LATER ON THIS EVENING...THE STRONGER WINDS WILL BE
FOUND ALONG THE ABSAROKAS AND INTO THE CODY FOOTHILLS...AND UPPER
WIND RIVER BASIN AS THE FLOW TURNS A LITTLE MORE WESTERLY
...INCREASING THE BREAKING MOUNTAIN WAVE THREAT. FLOW WILL LIKELY BE
TOO QUICK AND SOUTHWESTERLY AT FIRST AND WILL SAIL RIGHT OVER THE
BARRIER BUT THERE COULD BE SOME BREAKING ACTION EARLY IN THE
EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN WEST CODY AND AROUND CLARK AS WINDS VEER
MORE WESTERLY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AS THE SUBSIDENT LEFT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET SAILS BY EARLY IN THE EVENING FOLLOWED BY
SOME BROAD BUT WEAKER FORCING FOR DESCENT BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH.

WHILE THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST SOME RAIN AND SNOW...WITH ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
DIVIDE...INCLUDING SWEETWATER COUNTY. DOWNSLOPING EAST OF THE DIVIDE
SHOULD LIMIT ANY PRECIPITATION THERE. THERE WILL BE SOME JET
ENERGY..WEAK INSTABILITY AND SOME QG FORCING HELPING TO MAXIMIZE THE
POTENTIAL OF THIS WAVE SO THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS MAKE IT OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE TAKEN THE BULK OF THE ENERGY
FROM THIS WAVE A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT POPS
LARGELY LEFT ALONE...WITH SOME TRIMMING IN A FEW AREAS BUT OVERALL
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN BACKING OFF ON H7 TEMPERATURES ALONG AND
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SNOW LEVELS WILL NOW BE ONLY AS LOW AS 8KFT
ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS LOWERING TO 6.5KFT THIS EVENING BEFORE
THE SYSTEM EXITS...HIGHER AS YOU HEAD EAST. THE FRONT EVENTUALLY
MAKES IT ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT...WITH THE COOLER
AIRMASS HANGING AROUND INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MODERATION ON
THURSDAY. THURSDAY COULD ALSO BE A BREEZY DAY AS A TUG OF WAR
BETWEEN THE COLD BUT DYNAMIC TROUGH TO OUR NORTH AND THE RIDGE
POKING IN FROM THE SOUTH. OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE WILL WIN
OUT IN OUR AREA WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SYNOPSIS...UNSEASONABLY MILD AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WYOMING ALONG WITH BREEZY/WINDY AREAS.  A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
WYOMING ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.  A DRIER AND COOL AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW ON MONDAY.

DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW OVER SW ALASKA EARLY THIS MORNING IS FORECAST
TO WOBBLE SE ALONG THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH UPPER TROUGH
SHARPENING AND BECOMING MORE UPRIGHT OFF THE WEST COAST ON
FRIDAY...PUMPING UP RIDGE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.  MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT UP TO THIS POINT.  MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE
APPARENT AS THE TROUGH MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY WITH THE GFS SHEARING LEAD SHORTWAVE NE ACROSS
IDAHO/WESTERN MONTANA ON SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A SLOWER
MUCH MORE SPLIT TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY.  GFS
AND EC RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORT SLOWER OVERALL PROGRESSION
THAN GFS AND NOT AS MUCH SPLITTING AS ECMWF DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE.
FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE ENSEMBLE MEANS WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING
INTO THE WEST LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING POPS
ACROSS THE WEST AND SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.  GEFS MEAN KEEP THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION NORTH AND
WEST OF WYOMING WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW KEEPING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
LOW EAST OF THE DIVIDE.  ENSEMBLE MEANS ALSO SHOW HEIGHTS REBOUNDING
A BIT QUICKER MONDAY AS NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES THE NW COAST WITH
FLAT RIDGING OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY.  FORECAST KEEPS LOW POPS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE BASINS AND VALLEYS.  MILDER...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

SHORTWAVE APPROACHING SOUTHWEST IDAHO WILL SWING ACROSS NORTHWEST
WYOMING TODAY. CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THROUGH 18Z TODAY AS BEST FORCING AND JET ENERGY PUSH ACROSS
NORTHWEST WYOMING. MOUNTAIN TOP OBSCURATIONS WILL BE WIDESPREAD
THROUGH ABOUT 21Z-23Z BEFORE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWING
EAST OF KJAC. COULD STILL SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR AT KJAC WITH A
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWER BETWEEN 16Z-21Z TODAY. OTHERWISE...KJAC WILL
REMAIN VFR WITH RAPID CLEARING BETWEEN 23Z/TUE AND 02Z/WED. OTHER
TERMINALS WILL ALL BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO GENERATE CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WYOMING...MAINLY AFFECTING KBPI...KPNA...AND KRKS TERMINALS. MUCH
MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION ELSEWHERE. LARGER ISSUE EAST OF THE DIVIDE
WILL BE DOWNSLOPE WINDS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AND GUSTY
SOUTH TO WEST SURFACE WIND. WINDS WILL BE 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS
25-35KTS. STRONGEST WIND WILL BE DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS AT KCPR
WHERE 25G35KTS IS LIKELY. TROUGH PASSAGE BETWEEN 00Z-06Z/WED WILL
VEER WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST WITH DECREASING SPEEDS AFTER SUNSET. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE KRIW WHERE FAVORABLE NORTHWEST WIND OF 15-25KTS IS
LIKELY THROUGH ABOUT 06Z/WED. ALL TERMINALS WILL SEE RAPID CLEARING
FROM THE WEST BEGINNING AT 00Z/WED AND CONTINUING THROUGH 06Z/WED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM AND WINDY DAY EAST OF THE DIVIDE WHILE A
STORM MOVES INTO THE WEST. DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL LIMIT CHANCES FOR
WETTING RAIN EAST...WHILE MORE FAVORABLE FLOW WILL MAXIMIZE
POTENTIAL ALONG WEST FACING SLOPES ALONG AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE.
THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME WETTING RAINS IN RAWLINS DISPATCH AREA. A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH TONIGHT...CHANGING THE WIND DIRECTION TO
MORE WESTERLY. THE WIND AND THE RAIN WILL CLEAR OUT ON WEDNESDAY
WITH COOL TEMPERATURES REMAINING. TEMPERATURES REBOUND A BIT ON
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH BUT IT WILL BE
ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IN SPOTS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH
COMMON BETWEEN ROCK SPRINGS AND CASPER AND OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ALLEN
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...CNJ
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN









000
FXUS65 KRIW 210930
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
330 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

SWIFT SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ELEVATED BUT BELOW WARNING
CRITERIA...MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO LIGHT TRAILERS AND HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES...ESPECIALLY IN SWEETWATER COUNTY...SOUTHEAST FREMONT AND
NATRONA COUNTIES. LATER ON THIS EVENING...THE STRONGER WINDS WILL BE
FOUND ALONG THE ABSAROKAS AND INTO THE CODY FOOTHILLS...AND UPPER
WIND RIVER BASIN AS THE FLOW TURNS A LITTLE MORE WESTERLY
...INCREASING THE BREAKING MOUNTAIN WAVE THREAT. FLOW WILL LIKELY BE
TOO QUICK AND SOUTHWESTERLY AT FIRST AND WILL SAIL RIGHT OVER THE
BARRIER BUT THERE COULD BE SOME BREAKING ACTION EARLY IN THE
EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN WEST CODY AND AROUND CLARK AS WINDS VEER
MORE WESTERLY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AS THE SUBSIDENT LEFT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET SAILS BY EARLY IN THE EVENING FOLLOWED BY
SOME BROAD BUT WEAKER FORCING FOR DESCENT BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH.

WHILE THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST SOME RAIN AND SNOW...WITH ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
DIVIDE...INCLUDING SWEETWATER COUNTY. DOWNSLOPING EAST OF THE DIVIDE
SHOULD LIMIT ANY PRECIPITATION THERE. THERE WILL BE SOME JET
ENERGY..WEAK INSTABILITY AND SOME QG FORCING HELPING TO MAXIMIZE THE
POTENTIAL OF THIS WAVE SO THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS MAKE IT OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE TAKEN THE BULK OF THE ENERGY
FROM THIS WAVE A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT POPS
LARGELY LEFT ALONE...WITH SOME TRIMMING IN A FEW AREAS BUT OVERALL
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN BACKING OFF ON H7 TEMPERATURES ALONG AND
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SNOW LEVELS WILL NOW BE ONLY AS LOW AS 8KFT
ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS LOWERING TO 6.5KFT THIS EVENING BEFORE
THE SYSTEM EXITS...HIGHER AS YOU HEAD EAST. THE FRONT EVENTUALLY
MAKES IT ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT...WITH THE COOLER
AIRMASS HANGING AROUND INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MODERATION ON
THURSDAY. THURSDAY COULD ALSO BE A BREEZY DAY AS A TUG OF WAR
BETWEEN THE COLD BUT DYNAMIC TROUGH TO OUR NORTH AND THE RIDGE
POKING IN FROM THE SOUTH. OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE WILL WIN
OUT IN OUR AREA WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SYNOPSIS...UNSEASONABLY MILD AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WYOMING ALONG WITH BREEZY/WINDY AREAS.  A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
WYOMING ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.  A DRIER AND COOL AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW ON MONDAY.

DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW OVER SW ALASKA EARLY THIS MORNING IS FORECAST
TO WOBBLE SE ALONG THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH UPPER TROUGH
SHARPENING AND BECOMING MORE UPRIGHT OFF THE WEST COAST ON
FRIDAY...PUMPING UP RIDGE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.  MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT UP TO THIS POINT.  MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE
APPARENT AS THE TROUGH MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY WITH THE GFS SHEARING LEAD SHORTWAVE NE ACROSS
IDAHO/WESTERN MONTANA ON SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A SLOWER
MUCH MORE SPLIT TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY.  GFS
AND EC RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORT SLOWER OVERALL PROGRESSION
THAN GFS AND NOT AS MUCH SPLITTING AS ECMWF DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE.
FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE ENSEMBLE MEANS WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING
INTO THE WEST LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING POPS
ACROSS THE WEST AND SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.  GEFS MEAN KEEP THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION NORTH AND
WEST OF WYOMING WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW KEEPING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
LOW EAST OF THE DIVIDE.  ENSEMBLE MEANS ALSO SHOW HEIGHTS REBOUNDING
A BIT QUICKER MONDAY AS NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES THE NW COAST WITH
FLAT RIDGING OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY.  FORECAST KEEPS LOW POPS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE BASINS AND VALLEYS.  MILDER...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

SHORTWAVE APPROACHING SOUTHWEST IDAHO WILL SWING ACROSS NORTHWEST
WYOMING TODAY. CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THROUGH 18Z TODAY AS BEST FORCING AND JET ENERGY PUSH ACROSS
NORTHWEST WYOMING. MOUNTAIN TOP OBSCURATIONS WILL BE WIDESPREAD
THROUGH ABOUT 21Z-23Z BEFORE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWING
EAST OF KJAC. COULD STILL SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR AT KJAC WITH A
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWER BETWEEN 16Z-21Z TODAY. OTHERWISE...KJAC WILL
REMAIN VFR WITH RAPID CLEARING BETWEEN 23Z/TUE AND 02Z/WED. OTHER
TERMINALS WILL ALL BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO GENERATE CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WYOMING...MAINLY AFFECTING KBPI...KPNA...AND KRKS TERMINALS. MUCH
MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION ELSEWHERE. LARGER ISSUE EAST OF THE DIVIDE
WILL BE DOWNSLOPE WINDS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AND GUSTY
SOUTH TO WEST SURFACE WIND. WINDS WILL BE 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS
25-35KTS. STRONGEST WIND WILL BE DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS AT KCPR
WHERE 25G35KTS IS LIKELY. TROUGH PASSAGE BETWEEN 00Z-06Z/WED WILL
VEER WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST WITH DECREASING SPEEDS AFTER SUNSET. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE KRIW WHERE FAVORABLE NORTHWEST WIND OF 15-25KTS IS
LIKELY THROUGH ABOUT 06Z/WED. ALL TERMINALS WILL SEE RAPID CLEARING
FROM THE WEST BEGINNING AT 00Z/WED AND CONTINUING THROUGH 06Z/WED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM AND WINDY DAY EAST OF THE DIVIDE WHILE A
STORM MOVES INTO THE WEST. DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL LIMIT CHANCES FOR
WETTING RAIN EAST...WHILE MORE FAVORABLE FLOW WILL MAXIMIZE
POTENTIAL ALONG WEST FACING SLOPES ALONG AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE.
THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME WETTING RAINS IN RAWLINS DISPATCH AREA. A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH TONIGHT...CHANGING THE WIND DIRECTION TO
MORE WESTERLY. THE WIND AND THE RAIN WILL CLEAR OUT ON WEDNESDAY
WITH COOL TEMPERATURES REMAINING. TEMPERATURES REBOUND A BIT ON
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH BUT IT WILL BE
ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IN SPOTS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH
COMMON BETWEEN ROCK SPRINGS AND CASPER AND OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ALLEN
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...CNJ
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN










000
FXUS63 KUNR 210914
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
314 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY COVERS THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH A
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WEST COAST. SURFACE HIGH IS TO THE EAST
AND SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST WEST OF THE AREA. BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE KEEPING TEMPS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

UNDER SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTHWEST DOWN-SLOPING FLOW...HIGHS WILL BE
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S. TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE INCOMING
TROUGH AND EXITING SURFACE HIGH WILL CREATE SOME GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD...WHERE WINDS COULD
APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. MOIST AIR WILL BE ADVECTED INTO
WESTERN SD...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.

TONIGHT THE UPPER WAVE WILL PUSH EASTWARD...AND A COOL FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE CWA. COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL SD...WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE.

NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY ON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SD PLAINS. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
PUTTING THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD ON
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE OUT OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY
IN THE 60S...WITH 50S IN THE HILLS.


&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL MT INTO
EASTERN CO. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN WITH
READINGS 10-15F ABOVE NORMAL. UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING TROUGH TO MOVE OVER THE CWA. RESULT WILL
BE COOL-DOWN ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT...MIGHT BE SOME
-SHSN OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL SD TODAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD
FRONT LATE TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...HELGESON







000
FXUS63 KUNR 210914
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
314 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY COVERS THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH A
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WEST COAST. SURFACE HIGH IS TO THE EAST
AND SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST WEST OF THE AREA. BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE KEEPING TEMPS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

UNDER SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTHWEST DOWN-SLOPING FLOW...HIGHS WILL BE
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S. TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE INCOMING
TROUGH AND EXITING SURFACE HIGH WILL CREATE SOME GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD...WHERE WINDS COULD
APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. MOIST AIR WILL BE ADVECTED INTO
WESTERN SD...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.

TONIGHT THE UPPER WAVE WILL PUSH EASTWARD...AND A COOL FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE CWA. COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL SD...WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE.

NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY ON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SD PLAINS. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
PUTTING THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD ON
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE OUT OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY
IN THE 60S...WITH 50S IN THE HILLS.


&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL MT INTO
EASTERN CO. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN WITH
READINGS 10-15F ABOVE NORMAL. UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING TROUGH TO MOVE OVER THE CWA. RESULT WILL
BE COOL-DOWN ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT...MIGHT BE SOME
-SHSN OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL SD TODAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD
FRONT LATE TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...HELGESON







000
FXUS63 KUNR 210914
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
314 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY COVERS THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH A
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WEST COAST. SURFACE HIGH IS TO THE EAST
AND SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST WEST OF THE AREA. BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE KEEPING TEMPS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

UNDER SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTHWEST DOWN-SLOPING FLOW...HIGHS WILL BE
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S. TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE INCOMING
TROUGH AND EXITING SURFACE HIGH WILL CREATE SOME GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD...WHERE WINDS COULD
APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. MOIST AIR WILL BE ADVECTED INTO
WESTERN SD...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.

TONIGHT THE UPPER WAVE WILL PUSH EASTWARD...AND A COOL FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE CWA. COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL SD...WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE.

NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY ON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SD PLAINS. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
PUTTING THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD ON
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE OUT OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY
IN THE 60S...WITH 50S IN THE HILLS.


&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL MT INTO
EASTERN CO. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN WITH
READINGS 10-15F ABOVE NORMAL. UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING TROUGH TO MOVE OVER THE CWA. RESULT WILL
BE COOL-DOWN ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT...MIGHT BE SOME
-SHSN OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL SD TODAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD
FRONT LATE TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...HELGESON







000
FXUS63 KUNR 210914
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
314 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY COVERS THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH A
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WEST COAST. SURFACE HIGH IS TO THE EAST
AND SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST WEST OF THE AREA. BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE KEEPING TEMPS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

UNDER SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTHWEST DOWN-SLOPING FLOW...HIGHS WILL BE
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S. TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE INCOMING
TROUGH AND EXITING SURFACE HIGH WILL CREATE SOME GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD...WHERE WINDS COULD
APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. MOIST AIR WILL BE ADVECTED INTO
WESTERN SD...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.

TONIGHT THE UPPER WAVE WILL PUSH EASTWARD...AND A COOL FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE CWA. COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL SD...WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE.

NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY ON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SD PLAINS. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
PUTTING THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD ON
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE OUT OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY
IN THE 60S...WITH 50S IN THE HILLS.


&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL MT INTO
EASTERN CO. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN WITH
READINGS 10-15F ABOVE NORMAL. UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING TROUGH TO MOVE OVER THE CWA. RESULT WILL
BE COOL-DOWN ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT...MIGHT BE SOME
-SHSN OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL SD TODAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD
FRONT LATE TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...HELGESON







000
FXUS65 KCYS 210816
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
216 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CURRENT IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE
DEVELOPING AND PUSHING NORTHWARD OVER COLORADO. A VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN BEING
REPORTED ACROSS NRN NEVADA AND IDAHO. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY THIS MORNING ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS THIS
TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO WESTERN WYOMING BY THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST TODAY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
SOMETIME LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS NOT MUCH THAT IS
REALLY IMPRESSIVE ABOUT THIS SYSTEM AS IT EJECTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
WYOMING AND MONTANA THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL MODELS INDICATE A WEAKENING
JET ALOFT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN WEAK UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. THIS
WEAKENING APPEARS TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THERE IS SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY PRESENT AND SOME WEAK LARGE SCALE LIFT...SO
INCREASED POP BETWEEN 25 TO 35 PERCENT ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING.  CAN
NOT RULE OUT A FEW THUNDER SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
AS WELL AS LI/S LOWER BETWEEN ZERO AND -2C. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
PRIMARILY BE RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME SNOW IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.
PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT WITH QPF VALUES BELOW 0.25...AND MOST
LOCATIONS ONLY SEEING A TRACE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF LIQUID.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...AND BETWEEN 70 TO 80 DEGREES ALONG AND
EAST OF I25 INCLUDING WESTERN NEBRASKA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT...BUT WILL STILL BE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
AND GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S. KEPT POP BELOW 15
PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE I80 CORRIDOR
NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES DUE TO LLVL INSTABILITY AND SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO EXTEND NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CONTINUED DRY AND BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE LONG
TERM. BUT THERE ARE CHANGES COMING UP.

UPPER RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO PASS OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS
SHOWING 700MB WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 40KTS BY FRIDAY MORNING AS
THE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. GOING TO BE
PRETTY WARM WITH THESE STRONGER...DOWNSLOPING WINDS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HAVE HIGHS BOTH DAYS APPROACHING 80 IN THE PANHANDLE.
GFS 700MB TEMPERATURES ARE +8 TO +10C OVER THE CWFA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT.

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH CONTINUE TO SHOW A CHANGE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. ECMWF STRONGER ON THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE GFS AND HAS THE
SHORTWAVE TRACKING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. DID BUMP UP POPS FOR
THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES OF -4 TO -6C...A LOT OF
THIS PRECIP COULD FALL AS SNOW. SHOULD THE ECMWF SOLUTION HOLD
TRUE...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT WINTER HEADLINES AS TOTAL QPF
FORECAST CLOSE TO .75 INCHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING
SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FOR KLAR
AND KRWL. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER COLORADO THOUGH AND OUR
PANHANDLE AIRPORTS AS WELL AS KCYS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. VFR WITH
GUSTY WEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 150 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK WITH DAYTIME HUMIDITIES
MAINLY BETWEEN 20 TO 35 PERCENT. BREEZY OR WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS WYOMING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG INTERSTATE 80 THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER
WEDNESDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...TJT











000
FXUS65 KCYS 210816
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
216 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CURRENT IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE
DEVELOPING AND PUSHING NORTHWARD OVER COLORADO. A VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN BEING
REPORTED ACROSS NRN NEVADA AND IDAHO. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY THIS MORNING ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS THIS
TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO WESTERN WYOMING BY THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST TODAY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
SOMETIME LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS NOT MUCH THAT IS
REALLY IMPRESSIVE ABOUT THIS SYSTEM AS IT EJECTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
WYOMING AND MONTANA THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL MODELS INDICATE A WEAKENING
JET ALOFT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN WEAK UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. THIS
WEAKENING APPEARS TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THERE IS SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY PRESENT AND SOME WEAK LARGE SCALE LIFT...SO
INCREASED POP BETWEEN 25 TO 35 PERCENT ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING.  CAN
NOT RULE OUT A FEW THUNDER SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
AS WELL AS LI/S LOWER BETWEEN ZERO AND -2C. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
PRIMARILY BE RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME SNOW IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.
PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT WITH QPF VALUES BELOW 0.25...AND MOST
LOCATIONS ONLY SEEING A TRACE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF LIQUID.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...AND BETWEEN 70 TO 80 DEGREES ALONG AND
EAST OF I25 INCLUDING WESTERN NEBRASKA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT...BUT WILL STILL BE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
AND GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S. KEPT POP BELOW 15
PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE I80 CORRIDOR
NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES DUE TO LLVL INSTABILITY AND SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO EXTEND NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CONTINUED DRY AND BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE LONG
TERM. BUT THERE ARE CHANGES COMING UP.

UPPER RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO PASS OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS
SHOWING 700MB WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 40KTS BY FRIDAY MORNING AS
THE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. GOING TO BE
PRETTY WARM WITH THESE STRONGER...DOWNSLOPING WINDS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HAVE HIGHS BOTH DAYS APPROACHING 80 IN THE PANHANDLE.
GFS 700MB TEMPERATURES ARE +8 TO +10C OVER THE CWFA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT.

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH CONTINUE TO SHOW A CHANGE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. ECMWF STRONGER ON THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE GFS AND HAS THE
SHORTWAVE TRACKING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. DID BUMP UP POPS FOR
THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES OF -4 TO -6C...A LOT OF
THIS PRECIP COULD FALL AS SNOW. SHOULD THE ECMWF SOLUTION HOLD
TRUE...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT WINTER HEADLINES AS TOTAL QPF
FORECAST CLOSE TO .75 INCHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING
SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FOR KLAR
AND KRWL. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER COLORADO THOUGH AND OUR
PANHANDLE AIRPORTS AS WELL AS KCYS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. VFR WITH
GUSTY WEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 150 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK WITH DAYTIME HUMIDITIES
MAINLY BETWEEN 20 TO 35 PERCENT. BREEZY OR WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS WYOMING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG INTERSTATE 80 THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER
WEDNESDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...TJT











000
FXUS65 KCYS 210816
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
216 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CURRENT IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE
DEVELOPING AND PUSHING NORTHWARD OVER COLORADO. A VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN BEING
REPORTED ACROSS NRN NEVADA AND IDAHO. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY THIS MORNING ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS THIS
TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO WESTERN WYOMING BY THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST TODAY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
SOMETIME LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS NOT MUCH THAT IS
REALLY IMPRESSIVE ABOUT THIS SYSTEM AS IT EJECTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
WYOMING AND MONTANA THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL MODELS INDICATE A WEAKENING
JET ALOFT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN WEAK UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. THIS
WEAKENING APPEARS TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THERE IS SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY PRESENT AND SOME WEAK LARGE SCALE LIFT...SO
INCREASED POP BETWEEN 25 TO 35 PERCENT ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING.  CAN
NOT RULE OUT A FEW THUNDER SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
AS WELL AS LI/S LOWER BETWEEN ZERO AND -2C. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
PRIMARILY BE RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME SNOW IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.
PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT WITH QPF VALUES BELOW 0.25...AND MOST
LOCATIONS ONLY SEEING A TRACE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF LIQUID.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...AND BETWEEN 70 TO 80 DEGREES ALONG AND
EAST OF I25 INCLUDING WESTERN NEBRASKA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT...BUT WILL STILL BE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
AND GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S. KEPT POP BELOW 15
PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE I80 CORRIDOR
NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES DUE TO LLVL INSTABILITY AND SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO EXTEND NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CONTINUED DRY AND BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE LONG
TERM. BUT THERE ARE CHANGES COMING UP.

UPPER RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO PASS OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS
SHOWING 700MB WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 40KTS BY FRIDAY MORNING AS
THE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. GOING TO BE
PRETTY WARM WITH THESE STRONGER...DOWNSLOPING WINDS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HAVE HIGHS BOTH DAYS APPROACHING 80 IN THE PANHANDLE.
GFS 700MB TEMPERATURES ARE +8 TO +10C OVER THE CWFA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT.

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH CONTINUE TO SHOW A CHANGE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. ECMWF STRONGER ON THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE GFS AND HAS THE
SHORTWAVE TRACKING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. DID BUMP UP POPS FOR
THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES OF -4 TO -6C...A LOT OF
THIS PRECIP COULD FALL AS SNOW. SHOULD THE ECMWF SOLUTION HOLD
TRUE...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT WINTER HEADLINES AS TOTAL QPF
FORECAST CLOSE TO .75 INCHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING
SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FOR KLAR
AND KRWL. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER COLORADO THOUGH AND OUR
PANHANDLE AIRPORTS AS WELL AS KCYS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. VFR WITH
GUSTY WEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 150 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK WITH DAYTIME HUMIDITIES
MAINLY BETWEEN 20 TO 35 PERCENT. BREEZY OR WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS WYOMING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG INTERSTATE 80 THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER
WEDNESDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...TJT











000
FXUS65 KCYS 210816
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
216 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CURRENT IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE
DEVELOPING AND PUSHING NORTHWARD OVER COLORADO. A VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN BEING
REPORTED ACROSS NRN NEVADA AND IDAHO. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY THIS MORNING ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS THIS
TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO WESTERN WYOMING BY THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST TODAY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
SOMETIME LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS NOT MUCH THAT IS
REALLY IMPRESSIVE ABOUT THIS SYSTEM AS IT EJECTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
WYOMING AND MONTANA THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL MODELS INDICATE A WEAKENING
JET ALOFT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN WEAK UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. THIS
WEAKENING APPEARS TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THERE IS SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY PRESENT AND SOME WEAK LARGE SCALE LIFT...SO
INCREASED POP BETWEEN 25 TO 35 PERCENT ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING.  CAN
NOT RULE OUT A FEW THUNDER SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
AS WELL AS LI/S LOWER BETWEEN ZERO AND -2C. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
PRIMARILY BE RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME SNOW IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.
PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT WITH QPF VALUES BELOW 0.25...AND MOST
LOCATIONS ONLY SEEING A TRACE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF LIQUID.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...AND BETWEEN 70 TO 80 DEGREES ALONG AND
EAST OF I25 INCLUDING WESTERN NEBRASKA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT...BUT WILL STILL BE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
AND GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S. KEPT POP BELOW 15
PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE I80 CORRIDOR
NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES DUE TO LLVL INSTABILITY AND SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO EXTEND NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CONTINUED DRY AND BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE LONG
TERM. BUT THERE ARE CHANGES COMING UP.

UPPER RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO PASS OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS
SHOWING 700MB WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 40KTS BY FRIDAY MORNING AS
THE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. GOING TO BE
PRETTY WARM WITH THESE STRONGER...DOWNSLOPING WINDS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HAVE HIGHS BOTH DAYS APPROACHING 80 IN THE PANHANDLE.
GFS 700MB TEMPERATURES ARE +8 TO +10C OVER THE CWFA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT.

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH CONTINUE TO SHOW A CHANGE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. ECMWF STRONGER ON THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE GFS AND HAS THE
SHORTWAVE TRACKING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. DID BUMP UP POPS FOR
THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES OF -4 TO -6C...A LOT OF
THIS PRECIP COULD FALL AS SNOW. SHOULD THE ECMWF SOLUTION HOLD
TRUE...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT WINTER HEADLINES AS TOTAL QPF
FORECAST CLOSE TO .75 INCHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING
SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FOR KLAR
AND KRWL. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER COLORADO THOUGH AND OUR
PANHANDLE AIRPORTS AS WELL AS KCYS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. VFR WITH
GUSTY WEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 150 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK WITH DAYTIME HUMIDITIES
MAINLY BETWEEN 20 TO 35 PERCENT. BREEZY OR WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS WYOMING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG INTERSTATE 80 THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER
WEDNESDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...TJT











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