Home > Products > State Listing > Wyoming Data
Latest:
 AFDCYS |  AFDRIW |  AFDUNR |
  [top]

000
FXUS65 KCYS 020658
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1258 AM MDT SAT JUL 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 230 PM MDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Early afternoon water vapor loop showed a shortwave trough moving
east toward the Four Corners. Subtropical fetch of moisture across
the central/southern Rockies and plains, unstable air mass and
mid/upper level forcing from wave will trigger showers and widely
scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening.
Precipitable water values from 1.0 to 1.5" indicate potential for
locally heavy rainfall from the slower showers and storms. Severe
potential low with limited 0-6km shear and CAPEs less than 1000
j/kg. Convection will decrease in areal coverage and intensity
later this evening.

Models have slowed eastward progression of the shortwave trough,
with the system exiting the CWA Saturday evening. Lingering
moisture and instability over the southern 2/3 of the CWA will
produce isolated to scattered afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms. Below normal temperatures will continue Saturday
with highs in the 70s to around 80, with 60s for the mountains.

Breezy, warmer and generally drier conditions return Sunday as
the upper ridge axis moves over the CWA. Isolated afternoon
thunderstorms will be possible over the southeast WY mountains
and adjacent foothills and plains. High temperatures Sunday
will rise into the 80s to near 90, with 60s and 70s for the
mountains and high valleys.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 230 PM MDT Fri Jul 1 2016

A warming and drying trend will occur by late this weekend into
early next week. 700 mb temps rise to around 14-16C by Mon/Tues
with west to southwesterly flow aloft. Highs will be back up into
the mid 80s to low 90s. Will have to watch for some critical fire
weather conditions by Tuesday/Wednesday as min RH values fall to
10-20 percent over southeast Wyoming and winds gust to 25-30 mph
for areas along and west of the Laramie Range. Coverage of
storms will be more limited by early next week as drier 700-500 mb
flow works into the region. The ECMWF differs from the GFS in
showing storm chances returning by Thurs as llvl moisture and
instability increase over the plains behind a front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1254 AM MDT Sat Jul 2 2016

Main aviation concerns initially will be lower cigs/vsbys thru
around 15z or so for terminals across the southeast WY plains and
western Nebraska Panhandle. MVFR conditions have already developed
at KAIA and KSNY and expect further expansion over the next few
hours. These lower cigs/vsbys are expected to lift around 15z.
Otherwise, another round of -TSRA expected at KRWL, KLAR and KCYS
after 18z. Convective coverage will be more isolated compared to
Friday, so VCTS mention suffices for now.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 230 PM MDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Minimal fire weather concerns through the weekend due to
widespread rainfall this afternoon and tonight...high relative
humidities...and light winds. Drier and warmer weather is expected
Tuesday through Thursday of next week with increasing fire weather
concerns expected...particularly along and west of the Laramie
Range.

&&

.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAJ
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...CAH
FIRE WEATHER...ZF



  [top]

000
FXUS65 KRIW 020503
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
1103 PM MDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Saturday

The high pressure ridge aloft that has dominated the weather the
past few days has begun to weaken and shift east into the Central
Plains as a short wave trough of low pressure moves into the
Pacific Northwest. The movement of the ridge will take the fetch
of subtropical moisture with it so showers and afternoon and
evening thunderstorms will begin to decrease on Saturday. While
decreasing clouds will help warm up temperatures...the Pacific
trough will bring a weak surface cold front so the amount of
warming will be counter balanced by the cooling from the cold
front. Main difference will be drying so relative humidity will
trend down.

.LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Friday

The high pressure ridge aloft that has dominated the weather the
past few days has begun to weaken and shift east into the Central
Plains as a short wave trough of low pressure moves into the
Pacific Northwest. The movement of the ridge will take the fetch
of subtropical moisture with it so showers and afternoon and
evening thunderstorms will begin to decrease on Saturday evening.
While decreasing clouds will help warm up temperatures...the
Pacific trough will bring a weak surface cold front so the amount
of warming will be counter balanced by the cooling from the cold
front. Main difference will be drying so relative humidity will
trend down. Early in the week the drying will be more noticeable
and west to southwest winds will become breezy to windy on tuesday
and probably on Wednesday. Through the extended a series of
pacific low pressure troughs moving east across Idaho and Montana
will brush northern Wyoming with weak cold fronts moving south
at night and eroding during the day. There will be some
convection...mainly weak with a few thunderstorms most numerous
over the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z Issuance/

VFR conditions expected at all terminals through the forecast
period. Drier air will gradually slide east into the state as
Saturday wears on. Driest air will be across KJAC and nudging east
toward KBPI and KPNA. Still enough lingering moisture to generate
scattered showers and thunderstorms, with the best chance in the
vicinity of KCOD and KPNA. Expect convection to fire over the
central mountains, too, and have left VCTS at KLND. West-northwest
wind 10-20kts will blow at KBPI, KPNA, KRKS, and eventually KRIW.
Diurnal convection will decrease in coverage and intensity between
01Z-03Z/Sunday. Drier air continues to push east after that time
with only high cirrus moving into the region from the west.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

The high pressure ridge aloft that has dominated the weather the
past few days has begun to weaken and shift east into the Central
Plains as a short wave trough of low pressure moves into the
Pacific Northwest. The movement of the ridge will take the fetch
of subtropical moisture with it so showers and afternoon and
evening thunderstorms will begin to decrease on Saturday. While
decreasing clouds will help warm up temperatures...the Pacific
trough will bring a weak surface cold front so the amount of
warming will be counter balanced by the cooling from the cold
front. Main difference will be drying so relative humidity will
trend down. Early in the week the drying will be more noticeable
and west to southwest winds will become breezy to windy on tuesday
and probably on Wednesday.

&&

.RIW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...C.Baker
LONG TERM...C.Baker
AVIATION...CNJ
FIRE WEATHER...C.Baker



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KUNR 020044
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
644 PM MDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 642 PM MDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Fairly concentrated area of shra with isolated tsra over scntrl SD
early this evening. This activity should persist through at least
midnight before decreasing and moving off to the se of the area.
Update to increase pops for that area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening Through Saturday Night)
Issued at 324 PM MDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southeast MT,
with frontal boundary stretching from northeast WY to western KS.
Upper level analysis shows flattened ridge over the western
states, with shortwave energy moving across much of the northern
and central high plains. Water vapor imagery shows abundant
monsoonal moisture across the intermountain west into the plains.
Skies are mostly cloudy across much of the cwa, with temps ranging
from the 60s over portions of southwest and west central SD to
near 80 over portions of Campbell Co WY. KUDX radar shows fairly
widespread coverage of showers from portions of southwest to west
central SD, with scattered showers and storms further west into
northeast WY. Some areas of southwest SD have received an inch or
more of rain since this morning, with localized amounts around 2
inches from Hot Springs into northern Oglala Lakota County.

After a cool day today, a warming trend will take place over the
holiday weekend, with a return to drier wx as well. Isolated storms
can be expected in spots, but most areas outside of the Black Hills
will likely remain dry over the weekend. For tonight, showers and
storms will taper off, with the main activity over eastern portions
of the cwa sliding south and dissipating this evening. A few showers
will likely linger over far southern SD overnight. Lows will be in
the 50s. Have added some patchy fog from portions of northeast WY
through a good portion of western SD for late tonight/early
Saturday.

With more sun and some warm advection on Saturday, temperatures will
begin to warm back up across the area. Highs will be in the 80s
across much of the plains, with some 70s over the Black Hills and
south central SD. A few showers could linger/redevelop over south
central SD in the morning. Otherwise, the main chances for showers
and a few storms will be over the Black Hills in the afternoon. The
threat for severe storms Saturday afternoon will be minimal, but
some small hail and heavy rain would be possible with any stronger
storms. A shower or storm is possible into the evening over far
northeast WY and the Black Hills, with lows overnight in the 50s and
lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Through Friday)
Issued at 324 PM MDT Fri Jul 1 2016

A flat upper level ridge sets up across the central
CONUS next week as trof moves into the pacific northwest. Weak
shortwaves embedded in southwest flow, along with increasing
instability, will result in a daily chance of thunderstorms. High
temperatures will be back into the 90s for much of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued At 324 PM MDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue across the area
this afternoon and evening. MVFR ceilings/local IFR visibility
with the precipitation. Precipitation will end this evening for
most locations. Patchy fog or low stratus possible overnight
across portions of northeast Wyoming into southwest South Dakota.


&&

.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

Update...Johnson
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7




000
FXUS65 KCYS 012252
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
452 PM MDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 230 PM MDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Early afternoon water vapor loop showed a shortwave trough moving
east toward the Four Corners. Subtropical fetch of moisture across
the central/southern Rockies and plains, unstable air mass and
mid/upper level forcing from wave will trigger showers and widely
scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening.
Precipitable water values from 1.0 to 1.5" indicate potential for
locally heavy rainfall from the slower showers and storms. Severe
potential low with limited 0-6km shear and CAPEs less than 1000
j/kg. Convection will decrease in areal coverage and intensity
later this evening.

Models have slowed eastward progression of the shortwave trough,
with the system exiting the CWA Saturday evening. Lingering
moisture and instability over the southern 2/3 of the CWA will
produce isolated to scattered afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms. Below normal temperatures will continue Saturday
with highs in the 70s to around 80, with 60s for the mountains.

Breezy, warmer and generally drier conditions return Sunday as
the upper ridge axis moves over the CWA. Isolated afternoon
thunderstorms will be possible over the southeast WY mountains
and adjacent foothills and plains. High temperatures Sunday
will rise into the 80s to near 90, with 60s and 70s for the
mountains and high valleys.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 230 PM MDT Fri Jul 1 2016

A warming and drying trend will occur by late this weekend into
early next week. 700 mb temps rise to around 14-16C by Mon/Tues
with west to southwesterly flow aloft. Highs will be back up into
the mid 80s to low 90s. Will have to watch for some critical fire
weather conditions by Tuesday/Wednesday as min RH values fall to
10-20 percent over southeast Wyoming and winds gust to 25-30 mph
for areas along and west of the Laramie Range. Coverage of
storms will be more limited by early next week as drier 700-500 mb
flow works into the region. The ECMWF differs from the GFS in
showing storm chances returning by Thurs as llvl moisture and
instability increase over the plains behind a front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 446 PM MDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the next
few hours. Brief heavy rain will be the main threat with the
thunderstorms. IFR/LIFR cigs will become more widespread across
the Nebraska Panhandle between 06-09Z. The low clouds and ifr
conditions will linger over the Panhandle through late morning.
Storm chances on Saturday afternoon will be mainly confined to
areas along and west of the Laramie Range.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 230 PM MDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Minimal fire weather concerns through the weekend due to
widespread rainfall this afternoon and tonight...high relative
humidities...and light winds. Drier and warmer weather is expected
Tuesday through Thursday of next week with increasing fire weather
concerns expected...particularly along and west of the Laramie
Range.

&&

.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAJ
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...ZF




000
FXUS63 KUNR 012124
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
324 PM MDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening Through Saturday Night)
Issued at 324 PM MDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southeast MT,
with frontal boundary stretching from northeast WY to western KS.
Upper level analysis shows flattened ridge over the western
states, with shortwave energy moving across much of the northern
and central high plains. Water vapor imagery shows abundant
monsoonal moisture across the intermountain west into the plains.
Skies are mostly cloudy across much of the cwa, with temps ranging
from the 60s over portions of southwest and west central SD to
near 80 over portions of Campbell Co WY. KUDX radar shows fairly
widespread coverage of showers from portions of southwest to west
central SD, with scattered showers and storms further west into
northeast WY. Some areas of southwest SD have received an inch or
more of rain since this morning, with localized amounts around 2
inches from Hot Springs into northern Oglala Lakota County.

After a cool day today, a warming trend will take place over the
holiday weekend, with a return to drier wx as well. Isolated storms
can be expected in spots, but most areas outside of the Black Hills
will likely remain dry over the weekend. For tonight, showers and
storms will taper off, with the main activity over eastern portions
of the cwa sliding south and dissipating this evening. A few showers
will likely linger over far southern SD overnight. Lows will be in
the 50s. Have added some patchy fog from portions of northeast WY
through a good portion of western SD for late tonight/early
Saturday.

With more sun and some warm advection on Saturday, temperatures will
begin to warm back up across the area. Highs will be in the 80s
across much of the plains, with some 70s over the Black Hills and
south central SD. A few showers could linger/redevelop over south
central SD in the morning. Otherwise, the main chances for showers
and a few storms will be over the Black Hills in the afternoon. The
threat for severe storms Saturday afternoon will be minimal, but
some small hail and heavy rain would be possible with any stronger
storms. A shower or storm is possible into the evening over far
northeast WY and the Black Hills, with lows overnight in the 50s and
lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Through Friday)
Issued at 324 PM MDT Fri Jul 1 2016

A flat upper level ridge sets up across the central
CONUS next week as trof moves into the pacific northwest. Weak
shortwaves embedded in southwest flow, along with increasing
instability, will result in a daily chance of thunderstorms. High
temperatures will be back into the 90s for much of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued At 324 PM MDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue across the area
this afternoon and evening. MVFR ceilings/local IFR visibility
with the precipitation. Precipitation will end this evening for
most locations. Patchy fog or low stratus possible overnight
across portions of northeast Wyoming into southwest South Dakota.

&&

.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7




000
FXUS63 KUNR 012124
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
324 PM MDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening Through Saturday Night)
Issued at 324 PM MDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southeast MT,
with frontal boundary stretching from northeast WY to western KS.
Upper level analysis shows flattened ridge over the western
states, with shortwave energy moving across much of the northern
and central high plains. Water vapor imagery shows abundant
monsoonal moisture across the intermountain west into the plains.
Skies are mostly cloudy across much of the cwa, with temps ranging
from the 60s over portions of southwest and west central SD to
near 80 over portions of Campbell Co WY. KUDX radar shows fairly
widespread coverage of showers from portions of southwest to west
central SD, with scattered showers and storms further west into
northeast WY. Some areas of southwest SD have received an inch or
more of rain since this morning, with localized amounts around 2
inches from Hot Springs into northern Oglala Lakota County.

After a cool day today, a warming trend will take place over the
holiday weekend, with a return to drier wx as well. Isolated storms
can be expected in spots, but most areas outside of the Black Hills
will likely remain dry over the weekend. For tonight, showers and
storms will taper off, with the main activity over eastern portions
of the cwa sliding south and dissipating this evening. A few showers
will likely linger over far southern SD overnight. Lows will be in
the 50s. Have added some patchy fog from portions of northeast WY
through a good portion of western SD for late tonight/early
Saturday.

With more sun and some warm advection on Saturday, temperatures will
begin to warm back up across the area. Highs will be in the 80s
across much of the plains, with some 70s over the Black Hills and
south central SD. A few showers could linger/redevelop over south
central SD in the morning. Otherwise, the main chances for showers
and a few storms will be over the Black Hills in the afternoon. The
threat for severe storms Saturday afternoon will be minimal, but
some small hail and heavy rain would be possible with any stronger
storms. A shower or storm is possible into the evening over far
northeast WY and the Black Hills, with lows overnight in the 50s and
lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Through Friday)
Issued at 324 PM MDT Fri Jul 1 2016

A flat upper level ridge sets up across the central
CONUS next week as trof moves into the pacific northwest. Weak
shortwaves embedded in southwest flow, along with increasing
instability, will result in a daily chance of thunderstorms. High
temperatures will be back into the 90s for much of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued At 324 PM MDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue across the area
this afternoon and evening. MVFR ceilings/local IFR visibility
with the precipitation. Precipitation will end this evening for
most locations. Patchy fog or low stratus possible overnight
across portions of northeast Wyoming into southwest South Dakota.

&&

.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7




000
FXUS65 KRIW 012119
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
319 PM MDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Saturday

The high pressure ridge aloft that has dominated the weather the
past few days has begun to weaken and shift east into the Central
Plains as a short wave trough of low pressure moves into the
Pacific Northwest. The movement of the ridge will take the fetch
of subtropical moisture with it so showers and afternoon and
evening thunderstorms will begin to decrease on Saturday. While
decreasing clouds will help warm up temperatures...the Pacific
trough will bring a weak surface cold front so the amount of
warming will be counter balanced by the cooling from the cold
front. Main difference will be drying so relative humidity will
trend down.

.LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Friday

The high pressure ridge aloft that has dominated the weather the
past few days has begun to weaken and shift east into the Central
Plains as a short wave trough of low pressure moves into the
Pacific Northwest. The movement of the ridge will take the fetch
of subtropical moisture with it so showers and afternoon and
evening thunderstorms will begin to decrease on Saturday evening.
While decreasing clouds will help warm up temperatures...the
Pacific trough will bring a weak surface cold front so the amount
of warming will be counter balanced by the cooling from the cold
front. Main difference will be drying so relative humidity will
trend down. Early in the week the drying will be more noticeable
and west to southwest winds will become breezy to windy on tuesday
and probably on Wednesday. Through the extended a series of
pacific low pressure troughs moving east across Idaho and Montana
will brush northern Wyoming with weak cold fronts moving south
at night and eroding during the day. There will be some
convection...mainly weak with a few thunderstorms most numerous
over the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Showers and
thunderstorms will continue this evening as a weak upper level
disturbance slowly passes overhead. Best coverage will occur over
the mountains and far southern Wyoming near a low pressure
boundary/trough. This activity will decrease rapidly after 02-03z
with just a few lingering showers after 06z mainly over the
southwestern mountains. Local MVFR conditions may occur due to lower
visibilities and/or ceilings in areas of heavy rain associated with
stronger showers/storms. Wind gusts to 35 knots may also occur
near/ahead of storms. After 18z, Isolated to widely scattered
showers and storms will once again become evident near a low
pressure trough bisecting Wyoming from north to south. Best chances
for showers and thunder will occur over the mountains of central and
northern Wyoming with lesser chances across the adjacent basins of
the area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

The high pressure ridge aloft that has dominated the weather the
past few days has begun to weaken and shift east into the Central
Plains as a short wave trough of low pressure moves into the
Pacific Northwest. The movement of the ridge will take the fetch
of subtropical moisture with it so showers and afternoon and
evening thunderstorms will begin to decrease on Saturday. While
decreasing clouds will help warm up temperatures...the Pacific
trough will bring a weak surface cold front so the amount of
warming will be counter balanced by the cooling from the cold
front. Main difference will be drying so relative humidity will
trend down. Early in the week the drying will be more noticeable
and west to southwest winds will become breezy to windy on tuesday
and probably on Wednesday.

&&

.RIW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...C.Baker
LONG TERM...C.Baker
AVIATION...Braun
FIRE WEATHER...C.Baker




000
FXUS65 KCYS 012052
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
252 PM MDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 230 PM MDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Early afternoon water vapor loop showed a shortwave trough moving
east toward the Four Corners. Subtropical fetch of moisture across
the central/southern Rockies and plains, unstable air mass and
mid/upper level forcing from wave will trigger showers and widely
scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening.
Precipitable water values from 1.0 to 1.5" indicate potential for
locally heavy rainfall from the slower showers and storms. Severe
potential low with limited 0-6km shear and CAPEs less than 1000
j/kg. Convection will decrease in areal coverage and intensity
later this evening.

Models have slowed eastward progression of the shortwave trough,
with the system exiting the CWA Saturday evening. Lingering
moisture and instability over the southern 2/3 of the CWA will
produce isolated to scattered afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms. Below normal temperatures will continue Saturday
with highs in the 70s to around 80, with 60s for the mountains.

Breezy, warmer and generally drier conditions return Sunday as
the upper ridge axis moves over the CWA. Isolated afternoon
thunderstorms will be possible over the southeast WY mountains
and adjacent foothills and plains. High temperatures Sunday
will rise into the 80s to near 90, with 60s and 70s for the
mountains and high valleys.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 230 PM MDT Fri Jul 1 2016

A warming and drying trend will occur by late this weekend into
early next week. 700 mb temps rise to around 14-16C by Mon/Tues
with west to southwesterly flow aloft. Highs will be back up into
the mid 80s to low 90s. Will have to watch for some critical fire
weather conditions by Tuesday/Wednesday as min RH values fall to
10-20 percent over southeast Wyoming and winds gust to 25-30 mph
for areas along and west of the Laramie Range. Coverage of
storms will be more limited by early next week as drier 700-500 mb
flow works into the region. The ECMWF differs from the GFS in
showing storm chances returning by Thurs as llvl moisture and
instability increase over the plains behind a front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1148 AM MDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
through the afternoon at most of the sites. Brief heavy rain will
be the main threat with these storms. Mvfr cigs are expected at
sny and aia through 00z. Widespread ifr cigs will develop around
06z over the Nebraska Panhandle.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 230 PM MDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Minimal fire weather concerns through the weekend due to
widespread rainfall this afternoon and tonight...high relative
humidities...and light winds. Drier and warmer weather is expected
Tuesday through Thursday of next week with increasing fire weather
concerns expected...particularly along and west of the Laramie
Range.

&&

.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAJ
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...ZF




000
FXUS65 KCYS 012052
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
252 PM MDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 230 PM MDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Early afternoon water vapor loop showed a shortwave trough moving
east toward the Four Corners. Subtropical fetch of moisture across
the central/southern Rockies and plains, unstable air mass and
mid/upper level forcing from wave will trigger showers and widely
scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening.
Precipitable water values from 1.0 to 1.5" indicate potential for
locally heavy rainfall from the slower showers and storms. Severe
potential low with limited 0-6km shear and CAPEs less than 1000
j/kg. Convection will decrease in areal coverage and intensity
later this evening.

Models have slowed eastward progression of the shortwave trough,
with the system exiting the CWA Saturday evening. Lingering
moisture and instability over the southern 2/3 of the CWA will
produce isolated to scattered afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms. Below normal temperatures will continue Saturday
with highs in the 70s to around 80, with 60s for the mountains.

Breezy, warmer and generally drier conditions return Sunday as
the upper ridge axis moves over the CWA. Isolated afternoon
thunderstorms will be possible over the southeast WY mountains
and adjacent foothills and plains. High temperatures Sunday
will rise into the 80s to near 90, with 60s and 70s for the
mountains and high valleys.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 230 PM MDT Fri Jul 1 2016

A warming and drying trend will occur by late this weekend into
early next week. 700 mb temps rise to around 14-16C by Mon/Tues
with west to southwesterly flow aloft. Highs will be back up into
the mid 80s to low 90s. Will have to watch for some critical fire
weather conditions by Tuesday/Wednesday as min RH values fall to
10-20 percent over southeast Wyoming and winds gust to 25-30 mph
for areas along and west of the Laramie Range. Coverage of
storms will be more limited by early next week as drier 700-500 mb
flow works into the region. The ECMWF differs from the GFS in
showing storm chances returning by Thurs as llvl moisture and
instability increase over the plains behind a front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1148 AM MDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
through the afternoon at most of the sites. Brief heavy rain will
be the main threat with these storms. Mvfr cigs are expected at
sny and aia through 00z. Widespread ifr cigs will develop around
06z over the Nebraska Panhandle.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 230 PM MDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Minimal fire weather concerns through the weekend due to
widespread rainfall this afternoon and tonight...high relative
humidities...and light winds. Drier and warmer weather is expected
Tuesday through Thursday of next week with increasing fire weather
concerns expected...particularly along and west of the Laramie
Range.

&&

.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAJ
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...ZF




000
FXUS65 KCYS 011752
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1152 AM MDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 435 AM MDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Surface observations across southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska
show low clouds and even some patchy fog near the I25 corridor and
I80 summit early this morning. Radar loop has been relatively
quiet over the last 6 hours with only isolated rain showers moving
from southwest to northeast across the area. Activity has picked
up a bit north of the Platte River Valley from Douglas to Chadron
Nebraska as a remnant shortwave disturbance aloft moves across the
area. Another area of precipitation is further south in
Colorado...associated with jet dynamics aloft and well ahead of
another shortwave currently over Utah and Arizona. Pretty
confident that most places will see some rainfall today given
upslope flow and dynamic forcing in place. However...confidence is
low on precip amounts and intensity at this time since yesterday
did not quite pan out as anticipated. Most models and short range
ensembles are not initializing well this morning. The current HRRR
is now initializing reasonably well at this hour...so will base
POP and weather forecast over the next 18 hours on the 06-08Z
runs. Expect slow moving showers with embedded thunder to continue
moving east into the Nebraska panhandle through sunrise...then
expect a brief break between 9 AM to 1 PM before showers and
thunderstorms redevelop further west across southeast Wyoming.
Most other models support the HRRR solutions in the afternoon...so
fairly confident that scattered thunderstorms will develop across
the high plains along and east of I25 due to persistent upslope
flow and convergence along the Laramie Range. Cooler temperatures
and cloud cover will result in lower instability...so do not
expect strong or severe thunderstorms today. Expect some heavy
rainfall across the area...but chances for flash flooding will be
pretty very low. High temperatures will struggle to reach 70
degrees across most locations today due to low clouds.

Saturday will be a slight improvement as the upper level
disturbance will push over the area and eventually east. Models
have been trending slightly faster with the exit of the
disturbance...so expect some drier air aloft to move into the
northern and western zones from Carbon County to Converse County
through the afternoon. There will still be plenty of moisture and
instability south of the North Platte River valley...so expect
another round of showers and thunderstorms along and south of the
I80 corridor Saturday afternoon and early evening. As a ridge axis
aloft builds into Wyoming Saturday night...expect any activity to
dissipate quickly after 9 PM.

Warmer and drier conditions are expected on Sunday with all
models showing the ridge axis moving over the area. Still can not
completely rule out an isolated thunderstorm over the mountains
and potentially the High Plains. Model soundings east of I25 show
CAPE values over 1500 J/KG as well as LI`s between -4c to
-6c...which suggests a decent chance of afternoon thunderstorms.
However...dry air aloft will keep the coverage of thunderstorms
isolated at best. Daytime temperatures will rebound back into the
80`s to near 90...warmest below 4500 feet.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Friday)
Issued at 315 AM MDT Fri Jul 1 2016

West/southwest flow will prevail through the period as weak ridge of
high pressure exists across the S-Central CONUS. Latest medium range
models have trended lower with mid-level height progs, especially
early in the period. What will this mean for the 4th of July
holiday? Well, mother nature may provide some isolated fireworks of
her own, especially if the 00z ECMWF should verify. Have added a
slight chance of thunderstorms across much of the area mainly during
the afternoon hours Monday. Expect this activity should dissipate by
early evening, so anticipate no thunderstorm impacts to late evening
fireworks festivities Monday. Tuesday and Wednesday look to be the
hottest days of the week, with highs in the 90s across most of the
eastern plains. These may need to be trended upward should triple
digit progs verify per the latest MOS. Llvl thermal ridge will
suppress/minimize afternoon/evening convective threat Tue-Wed. The
pattern flattens Thu-Fri as shortwave energy moves towards the
northern Rockies. Along with some slight cooling, should see a
return to mention worth afternoon/evening thunderstorm chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1148 AM MDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
through the afternoon at most of the sites. Brief heavy rain will
be the main threat with these storms. Mvfr cigs are expected at
sny and aia through 00z. Widespread ifr cigs will develop around
06z over the Nebraska Panhandle.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 304 AM MDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Minimal Fire Weather concerns through the weekend due to
widespread rainfall today and tonight...high relative
humidities...and light winds. Drier and warmer weather is expected
Tuesday through Thursday of next week with increasing fire weather
concerns.

&&

.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...TJT




000
FXUS63 KUNR 011734
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1134 AM MDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 915 AM MDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southeast MT,
with frontal boundary stretching from northeast WY to western KS.
Upper level analysis shows flattened ridge over the western
states, with shortwave energy moving across much of the northern
and central high plains. Water vapor imagery shows abundant
monsoonal moisture across the intermountain west into the plains.
Skies are mostly cloudy across much of the cwa, with temps in the
60s. KUDX radar shows scattered to numerous showers across much of
western SD, especially southwest SD, tracking northeastward. Beneficial
rains can be expected in some areas, especially from the southern
Black Hills to portions of west central SD, a half inch or more
in spots.

Have updated to raise pops in southwest SD this morning based on
current trends. Made some minor adjustments to cloud cover, temps,
and wind as well for the rest of the day. Cool temps across the
area today, with highs in the upper 60s and 70s. Will make
adjustments to pcpn chances as needed into the afternoon. Still
looks like most of the activity will begin to taper off in the
late afternoon and evening as energy shifts south and east of the
cwa.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today Through Saturday Night)
Issued at 221 AM MDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Northwesterly upper flow will occur over the region today. Water
vapor images show a plume of moisture over the Rockies...spilling
over the northern and central plains. At the surface...high
pressure is located over the eastern Dakotas/Nebraska with low
pressure over Montana/Wyoming.

Unsettled and cooler weather can be expected across the area today
with southerly winds aiding the transport of low level moisture
into the region. A shortwave trough will cross the region today.
Although instability is relatively weak there is ample deep layer
moisture for a chance of showers and thunderstorms today. The
chances of severe storms will remain low. Much of the activity
may end up being in the form of showers, especially on the plains to
the east of the Black Hills. Highs today will mainly be in the
upper 60s to upper 70s. 60s are expected across the Black Hills
with showers likely. Showers and storms should taper off and push
south of the area overnight. An upper ridge will begin to build to
the west of the forecast area on Saturday with high temperatures
expected to reach the upper 70s to upper 80s. Isolated
thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday...with the best chance
being located in the Black Hills area on Saturday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Through Thursday)
Issued at 221 AM MDT Fri Jul 1 2016

A flat upper level ridge is expected to continue across the
region through the first half of next week. Upper flow will become
more SW through heading toward mid week as the ridge axis slides
over the Great Lakes region. This pattern will bring slight
chances of storms daily. A more active pattern could develop
through the second half of the week as a series of waves cross the
region within the SW flow. Temperatures will be near to above
average.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Saturday)
Issued At 1125 AM MDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue from Black Hills
area into south central South Dakota this afternoon and evening.
Area of MVFR ceilings associated with the precipitation, with
local IFR ceilings possible around the Black Hills. Precipitation
will end this evening for most locations. Patchy fog or low
stratus possible overnight across portions of northeast Wyoming
into southwest South Dakota.

&&

.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

Update...26
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...7




000
FXUS65 KRIW 011700
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
1100 AM MDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...Friday through Sunday night

The plume of deepest monsoonal moisture is slowly exiting the county
warning area stage east. There are still some showers in Natrona
County and the western Mountains but these are slowly weakening. The
models still indicate some showers in the east in the morning but
the NAM is wetter than the GFS. For now, we will go with isolated
POPS in the morning. In addition, with the low temperature/dew
point and rain spreads we did add patchy fog to some areas the
models do indicate somewhat drier air spreading across the area
today with precipitable water about 0.40 inches less than
yesterday, generally in the 0.50 to 0.90 inch range. This will
still be enough for isolated to widely scattered convection this
afternoon and evening, but coverage should be less than on
Thursday. Locally heavy rain is still possible though as steering
flow remains weak and an storm that forms will be slow to move.
Temperatures should be a couple of degrees warmer but still fairly
comfortable for this time of year.

Convection looks to reach a minimum on Saturday as heights rise
across the state with ridging building a bit.Some very dry air will
move in west of the divide so we removed POPS in that area. Most
convection on this day should remain over the mountains and some of
the adjacent foothills as steering winds will remain weak. With
more sunshine and fewer clouds temperatures should rise once again,
but likely only back to near normal levels.

Coverage could increase again for Sunday however. The models are
showing some deeper moisture moving into the state. In addition, a
shortwave will be moving by to the north of Wyoming, helping to
increase instability a bit. At this point, the threat of
thunderstorms would be restricted to the west most of the day. As
the shortwave passes east of the divide the best chance would be
across northern areas. As a result, we did add some slight chances
across the Big Horn Basin for Sunday evening. High temperatures
should be fairly similar to Saturday, near to slightly above average
for the first part of July.

.LONG TERM...Monday Through Friday

Still quite a few differences in the models from midweek onward.
Big picture still has mean upper ridge redeveloping ewd over the
Southern High Plains but exactly how the energy between 180w and
the Gulf of Alaska comes into play varies widely in location and
timing. The GFS is almost back to where it was two nights ago with
a fairly significant upper low lifting newd from Eastern Oregon
into Wrn MT between 00z and 12z Thu. This is currently the system
on the west end of the Aleutian chain. The Euro has this same
system in Ern OR around 00z Thu but it weakens it more and pushes
it ewd across Srn MT and Nrn WY on Thu. The GEM is further north
than both moving the system from Ern WA into Wrn MT during about
the same time. The change in the upper high position as we`ve been
saying for four nights still opens the door for one of these
systems to impact at least our wrn or nrn sections and we`ve made
sure that at least some pops cover this region later Wednesday
into Thursday. The GFS also has a secondary shot of energy coming
down from the nw on Friday that the other models do not. Have some
isold mtn pops in now but certainly nothing the the GFS would
indicate since confidence is just too low this far out.
Backtracking to the beginning of this period, the current Gulf of
Alaska low opens up and moves east well north of our area with
just the nrn part of our area open to potential moisture/forcing
and front in the area. If the midweek system does setup right,
there will still be the potential for some stronger storms in the
west and north as trough dynamics/jet streak and front potentially all
come into play. Timing may hinder this if it`s more towards Wed
ngt but we`ll just have to wait and see since it`s still 5 days
out. Generally very warm to hot ahead of this midweek system with
most areas dry but still a few ripples in the w-sw flow to act on
what moisture we do have around to produce isold storms in and
near the mountains. Dying ex-Gulf of Alaska system may also push a
front near the nrn border for early in the week to potentially be
a focus.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Showers and
thunderstorms will form this afternoon as a weak upper level
disturbance slowly passes overhead. Best coverage will occur over
the mountains and far southern Wyoming near a low pressure
boundary/trough. This activity will decrease rapidly after 02-03z
Saturday with just a few lingering showers after 06z Saturday mainly
over the southwestern mountains. Local MVFR conditions may occur due
to lower visibilities and/or ceilings in areas of heavy rain
associated with stronger showers/storms. Wind gusts to 35 knots may
also occur near/ahead of storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fire danger should remain fairly low today. Relative humidity will
remain below critical levels with winds generally light to moderate
outside of any thunderstorms. A few showers may linger this morning
in the mountains and in Johnson and Natrona Counties but most
showers and thunderstorms will be during the afternoon and evening
hours. Smoke dispersal and mixing will be generally fair to good for
most areas in the afternoon.
&&

.RIW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hattings
LONG TERM...Skrbac
AVIATION...Braun
FIRE WEATHER...Hattings




000
FXUS63 KUNR 011515
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
915 AM MDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 915 AM MDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southeast MT,
with frontal boundary stretching from northeast WY to western KS.
Upper level analysis shows flattened ridge over the western
states, with shortwave energy moving across much of the northern
and central high plains. Water vapor imagery shows abundant
monsoonal moisture across the intermountain west into the plains.
Skies are mostly cloudy across much of the cwa, with temps in the
60s. KUDX radar shows scattered to numerous showers across much of
western SD, especially southwest SD, tracking northeastward. Beneficial
rains can be expected in some areas, especially from the southern
Black Hills to portions of west central SD, a half inch or more
in spots.

Have updated to raise pops in southwest SD this morning based on
current trends. Made some minor adjustments to cloud cover, temps,
and wind as well for the rest of the day. Cool temps across the
area today, with highs in the upper 60s and 70s. Will make
adjustments to pcpn chances as needed into the afternoon. Still
looks like most of the activity will begin to taper off in the
late afternoon and evening as energy shifts south and east of the
cwa.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today Through Saturday Night)
Issued at 221 AM MDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Northwesterly upper flow will occur over the region today. Water
vapor images show a plume of moisture over the Rockies...spilling
over the northern and central plains. At the surface...high
pressure is located over the eastern Dakotas/Nebraska with low
pressure over Montana/Wyoming.

Unsettled and cooler weather can be expected across the area today
with southerly winds aiding the transport of low level moisture
into the region. A shortwave trough will cross the region today.
Although instability is relatively weak there is ample deep layer
moisture for a chance of showers and thunderstorms today. The
chances of severe storms will remain low. Much of the activity
may end up being in the form of showers, especially on the plains to
the east of the Black Hills. Highs today will mainly be in the
upper 60s to upper 70s. 60s are expected across the Black Hills
with showers likely. Showers and storms should taper off and push
south of the area overnight. An upper ridge will begin to build to
the west of the forecast area on Saturday with high temperatures
expected to reach the upper 70s to upper 80s. Isolated
thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday...with the best chance
being located in the Black Hills area on Saturday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Through Thursday)
Issued at 221 AM MDT Fri Jul 1 2016

A flat upper level ridge is expected to continue across the
region through the first half of next week. Upper flow will become
more SW through heading toward mid week as the ridge axis slides
over the Great Lakes region. This pattern will bring slight
chances of storms daily. A more active pattern could develop
through the second half of the week as a series of waves cross the
region within the SW flow. Temperatures will be near to above
average.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued At 221 AM MDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Showers and thunderstorms are expected over parts of northeast
Wyoming, the Black Hills, and far western South Dakota today into
the evening. MVFR conditions will be possible near any
precip...and IFR conditions are possible across the Black Hills
area.


&&

.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

Update...26
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13




000
FXUS65 KCYS 011149
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
549 AM MDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 435 AM MDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Surface observations across southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska
show low clouds and even some patchy fog near the I25 corridor and
I80 summit early this morning. Radar loop has been relatively
quiet over the last 6 hours with only isolated rain showers moving
from southwest to northeast across the area. Activity has picked
up a bit north of the Platte River Valley from Douglas to Chadron
Nebraska as a remnant shortwave disturbance aloft moves across the
area. Another area of precipitation is further south in
Colorado...associated with jet dynamics aloft and well ahead of
another shortwave currently over Utah and Arizona. Pretty
confident that most places will see some rainfall today given
upslope flow and dynamic forcing in place. However...confidence is
low on precip amounts and intensity at this time since yesterday
did not quite pan out as anticipated. Most models and short range
ensembles are not initializing well this morning. The current HRRR
is now initializing reasonably well at this hour...so will base
POP and weather forecast over the next 18 hours on the 06-08Z
runs. Expect slow moving showers with embedded thunder to continue
moving east into the Nebraska panhandle through sunrise...then
expect a brief break between 9 AM to 1 PM before showers and
thunderstorms redevelop further west across southeast Wyoming.
Most other models support the HRRR solutions in the afternoon...so
fairly confident that scattered thunderstorms will develop across
the high plains along and east of I25 due to persistent upslope
flow and convergence along the Laramie Range. Cooler temperatures
and cloud cover will result in lower instability...so do not
expect strong or severe thunderstorms today. Expect some heavy
rainfall across the area...but chances for flash flooding will be
pretty very low. High temperatures will struggle to reach 70
degrees across most locations today due to low clouds.

Saturday will be a slight improvement as the upper level
disturbance will push over the area and eventually east. Models
have been trending slightly faster with the exit of the
disturbance...so expect some drier air aloft to move into the
northern and western zones from Carbon County to Converse County
through the afternoon. There will still be plenty of moisture and
instability south of the North Platte River valley...so expect
another round of showers and thunderstorms along and south of the
I80 corridor Saturday afternoon and early evening. As a ridge axis
aloft builds into Wyoming Saturday night...expect any activity to
dissipate quickly after 9 PM.

Warmer and drier conditions are expected on Sunday with all
models showing the ridge axis moving over the area. Still can not
completely rule out an isolated thunderstorm over the mountains
and potentially the High Plains. Model soundings east of I25 show
CAPE values over 1500 J/KG as well as LI`s between -4c to
-6c...which suggests a decent chance of afternoon thunderstorms.
However...dry air aloft will keep the coverage of thunderstorms
isolated at best. Daytime temperatures will rebound back into the
80`s to near 90...warmest below 4500 feet.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Friday)
Issued at 315 AM MDT Fri Jul 1 2016

West/southwest flow will prevail through the period as weak ridge of
high pressure exists across the S-Central CONUS. Latest medium range
models have trended lower with mid-level height progs, especially
early in the period. What will this mean for the 4th of July
holiday? Well, mother nature may provide some isolated fireworks of
her own, especially if the 00z ECMWF should verify. Have added a
slight chance of thunderstorms across much of the area mainly during
the afternoon hours Monday. Expect this activity should dissipate by
early evening, so anticipate no thunderstorm impacts to late evening
fireworks festivities Monday. Tuesday and Wednesday look to be the
hottest days of the week, with highs in the 90s across most of the
eastern plains. These may need to be trended upward should triple
digit progs verify per the latest MOS. Llvl thermal ridge will
suppress/minimize afternoon/evening convective threat Tue-Wed. The
pattern flattens Thu-Fri as shortwave energy moves towards the
northern Rockies. Along with some slight cooling, should see a
return to mention worth afternoon/evening thunderstorm chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 545 AM MDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Just a few showers detected on KCYS radar early this morning.
MVFR CIGS being observed at KSNY/KBFF...with IFR at KCYS. VFR
conditions are prevailing elsewhere. Latest forecast information
continues to point to stratus/fog continuing across these
terminals this morning. The big question mark will be
precipitation coverage later today. For now, confidence remains
too low in any one area to include more than VCSH and VCTS
through the period. Of course, will need to continue to monitor
radar trends through the period and AMD as necessary. Should see
CIGS/Vsby improve somewhat today as well, but may see re-
development of stratus at most terminals 02-06z tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 304 AM MDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Minimal Fire Weather concerns through the weekend due to
widespread rainfall today and tonight...high relative
humidities...and light winds. Drier and warmer weather is expected
Tuesday through Thursday of next week with increasing fire weather
concerns.

&&

.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...CAH
FIRE WEATHER...TJT




000
FXUS65 KCYS 011032
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
432 AM MDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 435 AM MDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Surface observations across southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska
show low clouds and even some patchy fog near the I25 corridor and
I80 summit early this morning. Radar loop has been relatively
quiet over the last 6 hours with only isolated rain showers moving
from southwest to northeast across the area. Activity has picked
up a bit north of the Platte River Valley from Douglas to Chadron
Nebraska as a remnant shortwave disturbance aloft moves across the
area. Another area of precipitation is further south in
Colorado...associated with jet dynamics aloft and well ahead of
another shortwave currently over Utah and Arizona. Pretty
confident that most places will see some rainfall today given
upslope flow and dynamic forcing in place. However...confidence is
low on precip amounts and intensity at this time since yesterday
did not quite pan out as anticipated. Most models and short range
ensembles are not initializing well this morning. The current HRRR
is now initializing reasonably well at this hour...so will base
POP and weather forecast over the next 18 hours on the 06-08Z
runs. Expect slow moving showers with embedded thunder to continue
moving east into the Nebraska panhandle through sunrise...then
expect a brief break between 9 AM to 1 PM before showers and
thunderstorms redevelop further west across southeast Wyoming.
Most other models support the HRRR solutions in the afternoon...so
fairly confident that scattered thunderstorms will develop across
the high plains along and east of I25 due to persistent upslope
flow and convergence along the Laramie Range. Cooler temperatures
and cloud cover will result in lower instability...so do not
expect strong or severe thunderstorms today. Expect some heavy
rainfall across the area...but chances for flash flooding will be
pretty very low. High temperatures will struggle to reach 70
degrees across most locations today due to low clouds.

Saturday will be a slight improvement as the upper level
disturbance will push over the area and eventually east. Models
have been trending slightly faster with the exit of the
disturbance...so expect some drier air aloft to move into the
northern and western zones from Carbon County to Converse County
through the afternoon. There will still be plenty of moisture and
instability south of the North Platte River valley...so expect
another round of showers and thunderstorms along and south of the
I80 corridor Saturday afternoon and early evening. As a ridge axis
aloft builds into Wyoming Saturday night...expect any activity to
dissipate quickly after 9 PM.

Warmer and drier conditions are expected on Sunday with all
models showing the ridge axis moving over the area. Still can not
completely rule out an isolated thunderstorm over the mountains
and potentially the High Plains. Model soundings east of I25 show
CAPE values over 1500 J/KG as well as LI`s between -4c to
-6c...which suggests a decent chance of afternoon thunderstorms.
However...dry air aloft will keep the coverage of thunderstorms
isolated at best. Daytime temperatures will rebound back into the
80`s to near 90...warmest below 4500 feet.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Friday)
Issued at 315 AM MDT Fri Jul 1 2016

West/southwest flow will prevail through the period as weak ridge of
high pressure exists across the S-Central CONUS. Latest medium range
models have trended lower with mid-level height progs, especially
early in the period. What will this mean for the 4th of July
holiday? Well, mother nature may provide some isolated fireworks of
her own, especially if the 00z ECMWF should verify. Have added a
slight chance of thunderstorms across much of the area mainly during
the afternoon hours Monday. Expect this activity should dissipate by
early evening, so anticipate no thunderstorm impacts to late evening
fireworks festivities Monday. Tuesday and Wednesday look to be the
hottest days of the week, with highs in the 90s across most of the
eastern plains. These may need to be trended upward should triple
digit progs verify per the latest MOS. Llvl thermal ridge will
suppress/minimize afternoon/evening convective threat Tue-Wed. The
pattern flattens Thu-Fri as shortwave energy moves towards the
northern Rockies. Along with some slight cooling, should see a
return to mention worth afternoon/evening thunderstorm chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1241 AM MDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Regional radar struggling to develop anything thus far tonight, with
the exception of at KCYS where a -RA has began falling beneath a
stratus deck since around midnight. Otherwise, VFR conditions
prevailing. Latest forecast information continues to point to
widespread stratus/fog developing across the area which will reduce
cigs/vsbys to IFR or even LIFR at KCYS/KLAR. The big question mark
will be precipitation coverage through the overnight hours and again
on Friday. For now, am not confident in any one area to add more
than VCSH and VCTS through the period. Of course, will need to
continue to monitor radar trends through the period and AMD as
necessary. Should see conditions improve somewhat today as well, but
may see re-development of stratus especially at KLAR and KCYS again
after 02Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 304 AM MDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Minimal Fire Weather concerns through the weekend due to
widespread rainfall today and tonight...high relative
humidities...and light winds. Drier and warmer weather is expected
Tuesday through Thursday of next week with increasing fire weather
concerns.

&&

.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...CAH
FIRE WEATHER...TJT




000
FXUS63 KUNR 010838
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
238 AM MDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today Through Saturday Night)
Issued at 221 AM MDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Northwesterly upper flow will occur over the region today. Water
vapor images show a plume of moisture over the Rockies...spilling
over the northern and central plains. At the surface...high
pressure is located over the eastern Dakotas/Nebraska with low
pressure over Montana/Wyoming.

Unsettled and cooler weather can be expected across the area today
with southerly winds aiding the transport of low level moisture
into the region. A shortwave trough will cross the region today.
Although instability is relatively weak there is ample deep layer
moisture for a chance of showers and thunderstorms today. The
chances of severe storms will remain low. Much of the activity
may end up being in the form of showers, especially on the plains to
the east of the Black Hills. Highs today will mainly be in the
upper 60s to upper 70s. 60s are expected across the Black Hills
with showers likely. Showers and storms should taper off and push
south of the area overnight. An upper ridge will begin to build to
the west of the forecast area on Saturday with high temperatures
expected to reach the upper 70s to upper 80s. Isolated
thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday...with the best chance
being located in the Black Hills area on Saturday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Through Thursday)
Issued at 221 AM MDT Fri Jul 1 2016

A flat upper level ridge is expected to continue across the
region through the first half of next week. Upper flow will become
more SW through heading toward mid week as the ridge axis slides
over the Great Lakes region. This pattern will bring slight
chances of storms daily. A more active pattern could develop
through the second half of the week as a series of waves cross the
region within the SW flow. Temperatures will be near to above
average.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued At 221 AM MDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Showers and thunderstorms are expected over parts of northeast
Wyoming, the Black Hills, and far western South Dakota today into
the evening. MVFR conditions will be possible near any
precip...and IFR conditions are possible across the Black Hills
area.

&&

.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13




000
FXUS63 KUNR 010838
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
238 AM MDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today Through Saturday Night)
Issued at 221 AM MDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Northwesterly upper flow will occur over the region today. Water
vapor images show a plume of moisture over the Rockies...spilling
over the northern and central plains. At the surface...high
pressure is located over the eastern Dakotas/Nebraska with low
pressure over Montana/Wyoming.

Unsettled and cooler weather can be expected across the area today
with southerly winds aiding the transport of low level moisture
into the region. A shortwave trough will cross the region today.
Although instability is relatively weak there is ample deep layer
moisture for a chance of showers and thunderstorms today. The
chances of severe storms will remain low. Much of the activity
may end up being in the form of showers, especially on the plains to
the east of the Black Hills. Highs today will mainly be in the
upper 60s to upper 70s. 60s are expected across the Black Hills
with showers likely. Showers and storms should taper off and push
south of the area overnight. An upper ridge will begin to build to
the west of the forecast area on Saturday with high temperatures
expected to reach the upper 70s to upper 80s. Isolated
thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday...with the best chance
being located in the Black Hills area on Saturday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Through Thursday)
Issued at 221 AM MDT Fri Jul 1 2016

A flat upper level ridge is expected to continue across the
region through the first half of next week. Upper flow will become
more SW through heading toward mid week as the ridge axis slides
over the Great Lakes region. This pattern will bring slight
chances of storms daily. A more active pattern could develop
through the second half of the week as a series of waves cross the
region within the SW flow. Temperatures will be near to above
average.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued At 221 AM MDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Showers and thunderstorms are expected over parts of northeast
Wyoming, the Black Hills, and far western South Dakota today into
the evening. MVFR conditions will be possible near any
precip...and IFR conditions are possible across the Black Hills
area.

&&

.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13




000
FXUS65 KRIW 010835
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
235 AM MDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...Friday through Sunday night

The plume of deepest monsoonal moisture is slowly exiting the county
warning area stage east. There are still some showers in Natrona
County and the western Mountains but these are slowly weakening. The
models still indicate some showers in the east in the morning but
the NAM is wetter than the GFS. For now, we will go with isolated
POPS in the morning. In addition, with the low temperature/dew
point and rain spreads we did add patchy fog to some areas the
models do indicate somewhat drier air spreading across the area
today with precipitable water about 0.40 inches less than
yesterday, generally in the 0.50 to 0.90 inch range. This will
still be enough for isolated to widely scattered convection this
afternoon and evening, but coverage should be less than on
Thursday. Locally heavy rain is still possible though as steering
flow remains weak and an storm that forms will be slow to move.
Temperatures should be a couple of degrees warmer but still fairly
comfortable for this time of year.

Convection looks to reach a minimum on Saturday as heights rise
across the state with ridging building a bit.Some very dry air will
move in west of the divide so we removed POPS in that area. Most
convection on this day should remain over the mountains and some of
the adjacent foothills as steering winds will remain weak. With
more sunshine and fewer clouds temperatures should rise once again,
but likely only back to near normal levels.

Coverage could increase again for Sunday however. The models are
showing some deeper moisture moving into the state. In addition, a
shortwave will be moving by to the north of Wyoming, helping to
increase instability a bit. At this point, the threat of
thunderstorms would be restricted to the west most of the day. As
the shortwave passes east of the divide the best chance would be
across northern areas. As a result, we did add some slight chances
across the Big Horn Basin for Sunday evening. High temperatures
should be fairly similar to Saturday, near to slightly above average
for the first part of July.

.LONG TERM...Monday Through Friday

Still quite a few differences in the models from midweek onward.
Big picture still has mean upper ridge redeveloping ewd over the
Southern High Plains but exactly how the energy between 180w and
the Gulf of Alaska comes into play varies widely in location and
timing. The GFS is almost back to where it was two nights ago with
a fairly significant upper low lifting newd from Eastern Oregon
into Wrn MT between 00z and 12z Thu. This is currently the system
on the west end of the Aleutian chain. The Euro has this same
system in Ern OR around 00z Thu but it weakens it more and pushes
it ewd across Srn MT and Nrn WY on Thu. The GEM is further north
than both moving the system from Ern WA into Wrn MT during about
the same time. The change in the upper high position as we`ve been
saying for four nights still opens the door for one of these
systems to impact at least our wrn or nrn sections and we`ve made
sure that at least some pops cover this region later Wednesday
into Thursday. The GFS also has a secondary shot of energy coming
down from the nw on Friday that the other models do not. Have some
isold mtn pops in now but certainly nothing the the GFS would
indicate since confidence is just too low this far out.
Backtracking to the beginning of this period, the current Gulf of
Alaska low opens up and moves east well north of our area with
just the nrn part of our area open to potential moisture/forcing
and front in the area. If the midweek system does setup right,
there will still be the potential for some stronger storms in the
west and north as trough dynamics/jet streak and front potentially all
come into play. Timing may hinder this if it`s more towards Wed
ngt but we`ll just have to wait and see since it`s still 5 days
out. Generally very warm to hot ahead of this midweek system with
most areas dry but still a few ripples in the w-sw flow to act on
what moisture we do have around to produce isold storms in and
near the mountains. Dying ex-Gulf of Alaska system may also push a
front near the nrn border for early in the week to potentially be
a focus.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

VFR conditions will prevail through tonight. Isolated showers and
storms this morning. Then new showers and storms will form after 18z
across the region. This activity will decrease after 02z with
lingering showers or storms after 06z Saturday. Local MVFR
conditions will occur due to lower visibilities and ceilings in
areas of heavy rain. Wind gusts to 35 knots may also occur near
storms.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fire danger should remain fairly low today. Relative humidity will
remain below critical levels with winds generally light to moderate
outside of any thunderstorms. A few showers may linger this morning
in the mountains and in Johnson and Natrona Counties but most
showers and thunderstorms will be during the afternoon and evening
hours. Smoke dispersal and mixing will be generally fair to good for
most areas in the afternoon.
&&

.RIW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hattings
LONG TERM...Skrbac
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...Hattings




000
FXUS65 KCYS 010645
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1245 AM MDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 845 PM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Looking at latest radar trends...went ahead and lowered PoPs for
the rest of the evening as coverage is on the sparse side at this
time. Guidance does continue to show an increase in precip
coverage though after midnight...so did keep fairly high PoPs at
that time. Updates have been sent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

.Short term...

Tonight...At mid afternoon, we currently have isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms across our counties. Precipitable water
values this morning ranged from 120 to 170 percent of normal.

NAM depicts a slow moving shortwave moving east across southern
Wyoming overnight with deep moist low and mid level upslope
southeast winds advecting deep moisture into southeast Wyoming and
western Nebraska. Meanwhile, looking at the mid levels around 700
mb, we are seeing moderate to strong warm air advection looking at
the winds blowing perpendicular to the impressive 700 mb theta-e
ridge axis. With this in mind, expect scattered to numerous showers
to develop overnight, with best areal coverage over southern Albany
and Laramie counties of Wyoming and over the southern Nebraska
panhandle. Based on slow movement of storms, some storms may produce
locally heavy rain and possible flooding. Also, please see Mesoscale
Precipitation Discussion 399 issued at 158 pm MDT from the Weather
Prediction Center discussing the possibility of flash flooding.
Where rain is less prevalent, patchy areas of fog will form.

Thank you to NWS Denver/Boulder for their coordination on
expected rainfall event tonight and Friday.

Since we have not yet had widespread heavy rain the past few days,
have decided to hold off for now on a flash flood watch, and have
briefed our evening shift team who can see if and where showers and
thunderstorms develop to assess the best location for a possible
flash flood watch.

Friday...Slow moving shortwave moves east across eastern Wyoming,
and with a nearly saturated airmass in place over our eastern
counties, expect numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms
producing locally heavy rain due to slow movement of storms. Lesser
POPS further west where the atmosphere is less moist and lift will
be less prevalent. Lowered maximum temperatures from Laramie to
Cheyenne to Kimball and Sidney, under guidance, where low clouds and
rain will hamper warming significantly.

Friday night...With the shortwave moving further east of our
counties, lift will gradually wane with decreasing low and mid level
moisture, thus most rain chances ending from west to east.

Saturday...Shortwave ridging develops over western Wyoming. With a
more stable airmass in place, much of our eastern counties should be
shower and thunderstorm free in the afternoon. However, looks like
enough low and mid level moisture along a theta-e ridge over our
western counties for a chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

A warmer and drier weather pattern expected to set up over the CWA
this period as the upper high over the southern Rocky Mtns weakens
and drifts a little southeast. The stronger westerlies currently
along the US/Canadian border will sink a bit to the south turning
the flow over the CWA more westerly. This will shunt the monsoonal
moisture south of the CWA by early next week while the surface
flow becomes more westerly as well. This will bring warmer weather
for next week and keep convection more isolated in nature...and
primarily early in the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1241 AM MDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Regional radar struggling to develop anything thus far tonight,
with the exception of at KCYS where a -RA has began falling
beneath a stratus deck since around midnight. Otherwise, VFR
conditions prevailing. Latest forecast information continues to
point to widespread stratus/fog developing across the area which
will reduce cigs/vsbys to IFR or even LIFR at KCYS/KLAR. The big
question mark will be precipitation coverage through the overnight
hours and again on Friday. For now, am not confident in any one
area to add more than VCSH and VCTS through the period. Of course,
will need to continue to monitor radar trends through the period
and AMD as necessary. Should see conditions improve somewhat today
as well, but may see re-development of stratus especially at KLAR
and KCYS again after 02Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Minimal concerns through the weekend due to expected
widespread rain, relatively high humidities and light winds.
Concerns increasing again for the July 4th through Thursday period
as temperatures warm, humidities fall and winds increase somewhat.

&&

.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...CAH
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN




000
FXUS65 KRIW 010447
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
1047 PM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Friday (Issued at 312 PM MDT)

A high pressure ridge aloft extending from the Desert Southwest
north across the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies will pump
subtropical moisture north...then east across western and central
Wyoming. The air mass will be unstable due to afternoon heating
supporting the development of afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms most numerous over the mountains. Temperatures will
remain very warm to hot. The strongest winds will be outflow winds
from convection. Relative humidity will be favorable in the
mountains but low in the valleys.

.LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Thursday

The high pressure ridge will slowly shift east and will be pushed
south by a series of pacific low pressure troughs moving across
the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies. Showers and
thunderstorms will decrease in coverage through the weekend and
then become mostly dry...hot and windy by Tuesday. a cold front
will pass south bringing a better chance of showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday and more likely on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

VFR conditions will prevail through Friday night. Isolated showers
and storms overnight into Friday morning. Then new showers and
storms will form after 18z across the region. This activity will
decrease after 02z Saturday. Local MVFR conditions will occur due to
lower vsbys and cigs in areas of heavy rain. Wind gusts to 35 knots
may also occur near storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A high pressure ridge aloft extending from the Desert Southwest
north across the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies will pump
subtropical moisture north...then east across western and
central Wyoming. The air mass will be unstable due to afternoon
heating supporting the development of afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms most numerous over the mountains.
Temperatures will remain very warm to hot. The strongest winds
will be outflow winds from convection. Relative humidity will be
favorable in the mountains but low in the valleys. Mixing heights
will be high with moderate transport winds combining for
excellent smoke dispersal in the afternoons. This will continue
into the weekend. Drying with increased wind is expected Monday
and especially on Tuesday.

&&

.RIW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...C.Baker
LONG TERM...C.Baker
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...C.Baker




000
FXUS63 KUNR 010440
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1040 PM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening Through Friday Night)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Current surface analysis shows cold front from northeast WY to
far northern NE, slowly sliding southward. Upper level analysis
shows ridge still in place over the Northern Rockies, with
northwest flow over the Northern Plains. Regional radars show
scattered showers and a few storms from eastern WY and the Black
Hills to western NE. Skies are partly to mostly cloudy with temps
in the 70s and lower 80s.

Unsettled and cooler weather can be expected across the area through
Friday as cool front settles south and west of the area. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected across northeast
WY, the Black Hills, and southwest SD late today and tonight. A more
widespread chance for showers and thunderstorms can be expected
Friday as a stronger disturbance crosses the area. With the front
south of the area, available instability is rather weak, especially
to the east of the Black Hills. Will get some return of moisture
across northeast WY and far western SD on Friday, but chances for
severe storms look minimal at this point. Much of the activity may
end up being in the form of showers, especially to the east of the
Black Hills. Highs on Friday will be in the 70s to around 80
degrees, warmest over northeast WY in closer vicinity to the stalled
out boundary to the west. Some 60s across the Black Hills with
showers likely. Showers and storms should taper off and push south
of the area by late Friday night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Through Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

flat upper level ridge remains over the northern plains
this weekend, with flow becoming more southwesterly next week.
marginal instability and weak ripples in the flow may result in some
isolated shower/thunderstorm activity through the holiday weekend
into the middle of next week. Temperatures will be near average
Saturday with above average temperatures next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued At 1037 PM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm will spread east
overnight...generally near and south of I90. MVFR to local IFR
conditions in heavier showers. Otherwise...VFR conditions expected
through Friday morning. Additional thunderstorms may redevelop
during the afternoon.

&&

.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...Johnson




000
FXUS65 KCYS 010246
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
846 PM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 845 PM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Looking at latest radar trends...went ahead and lowered PoPs for
the rest of the evening as coverage is on the sparse side at this
time. Guidance does continue to show an increase in precip
coverage though after midnight...so did keep fairly high PoPs at
that time. Updates have been sent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

.Short term...

Tonight...At mid afternoon, we currently have isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms across our counties. Precipitable water
values this morning ranged from 120 to 170 percent of normal.

NAM depicts a slow moving shortwave moving east across southern
Wyoming overnight with deep moist low and mid level upslope
southeast winds advecting deep moisture into southeast Wyoming and
western Nebraska. Meanwhile, looking at the mid levels around 700
mb, we are seeing moderate to strong warm air advection looking at
the winds blowing perpendicular to the impressive 700 mb theta-e
ridge axis. With this in mind, expect scattered to numerous showers
to develop overnight, with best areal coverage over southern Albany
and Laramie counties of Wyoming and over the southern Nebraska
panhandle. Based on slow movement of storms, some storms may produce
locally heavy rain and possible flooding. Also, please see Mesoscale
Precipitation Discussion 399 issued at 158 pm MDT from the Weather
Prediction Center discussing the possibility of flash flooding.
Where rain is less prevalent, patchy areas of fog will form.

Thank you to NWS Denver/Boulder for their coordination on
expected rainfall event tonight and Friday.

Since we have not yet had widespread heavy rain the past few days,
have decided to hold off for now on a flash flood watch, and have
briefed our evening shift team who can see if and where showers and
thunderstorms develop to assess the best location for a possible
flash flood watch.

Friday...Slow moving shortwave moves east across eastern Wyoming,
and with a nearly saturated airmass in place over our eastern
counties, expect numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms
producing locally heavy rain due to slow movement of storms. Lesser
POPS further west where the atmosphere is less moist and lift will
be less prevalent. Lowered maximum temperatures from Laramie to
Cheyenne to Kimball and Sidney, under guidance, where low clouds and
rain will hamper warming significantly.

Friday night...With the shortwave moving further east of our
counties, lift will gradually wane with decreasing low and mid level
moisture, thus most rain chances ending from west to east.

Saturday...Shortwave ridging develops over western Wyoming. With a
more stable airmass in place, much of our eastern counties should be
shower and thunderstorm free in the afternoon. However, looks like
enough low and mid level moisture along a theta-e ridge over our
western counties for a chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

A warmer and drier weather pattern expected to set up over the CWA
this period as the upper high over the southern Rocky Mtns weakens
and drifts a little southeast. The stronger westerlies currently
along the US/Canadian border will sink a bit to the south turning
the flow over the CWA more westerly. This will shunt the monsoonal
moisture south of the CWA by early next week while the surface
flow becomes more westerly as well. This will bring warmer weather
for next week and keep convection more isolated in nature...and
primarily early in the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 546 PM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are likely through
the TAF period. Heavier showers could yield periods of MVFR or IFR
ceilings/visibilities. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions during the
early evening with ceilings lowering. IFR conditions may occur for
KCYS after 06z, with spotty MVFR conditions elsewhere.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Minimal concerns through the weekend due to expected
widespread rain, relatively high humidities and light winds.
Concerns increasing again for the July 4th through Thursday period
as temperatures warm, humidities fall and winds increase somewhat.

&&

.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN




000
FXUS65 KCYS 010246
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
846 PM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 845 PM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Looking at latest radar trends...went ahead and lowered PoPs for
the rest of the evening as coverage is on the sparse side at this
time. Guidance does continue to show an increase in precip
coverage though after midnight...so did keep fairly high PoPs at
that time. Updates have been sent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

.Short term...

Tonight...At mid afternoon, we currently have isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms across our counties. Precipitable water
values this morning ranged from 120 to 170 percent of normal.

NAM depicts a slow moving shortwave moving east across southern
Wyoming overnight with deep moist low and mid level upslope
southeast winds advecting deep moisture into southeast Wyoming and
western Nebraska. Meanwhile, looking at the mid levels around 700
mb, we are seeing moderate to strong warm air advection looking at
the winds blowing perpendicular to the impressive 700 mb theta-e
ridge axis. With this in mind, expect scattered to numerous showers
to develop overnight, with best areal coverage over southern Albany
and Laramie counties of Wyoming and over the southern Nebraska
panhandle. Based on slow movement of storms, some storms may produce
locally heavy rain and possible flooding. Also, please see Mesoscale
Precipitation Discussion 399 issued at 158 pm MDT from the Weather
Prediction Center discussing the possibility of flash flooding.
Where rain is less prevalent, patchy areas of fog will form.

Thank you to NWS Denver/Boulder for their coordination on
expected rainfall event tonight and Friday.

Since we have not yet had widespread heavy rain the past few days,
have decided to hold off for now on a flash flood watch, and have
briefed our evening shift team who can see if and where showers and
thunderstorms develop to assess the best location for a possible
flash flood watch.

Friday...Slow moving shortwave moves east across eastern Wyoming,
and with a nearly saturated airmass in place over our eastern
counties, expect numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms
producing locally heavy rain due to slow movement of storms. Lesser
POPS further west where the atmosphere is less moist and lift will
be less prevalent. Lowered maximum temperatures from Laramie to
Cheyenne to Kimball and Sidney, under guidance, where low clouds and
rain will hamper warming significantly.

Friday night...With the shortwave moving further east of our
counties, lift will gradually wane with decreasing low and mid level
moisture, thus most rain chances ending from west to east.

Saturday...Shortwave ridging develops over western Wyoming. With a
more stable airmass in place, much of our eastern counties should be
shower and thunderstorm free in the afternoon. However, looks like
enough low and mid level moisture along a theta-e ridge over our
western counties for a chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

A warmer and drier weather pattern expected to set up over the CWA
this period as the upper high over the southern Rocky Mtns weakens
and drifts a little southeast. The stronger westerlies currently
along the US/Canadian border will sink a bit to the south turning
the flow over the CWA more westerly. This will shunt the monsoonal
moisture south of the CWA by early next week while the surface
flow becomes more westerly as well. This will bring warmer weather
for next week and keep convection more isolated in nature...and
primarily early in the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 546 PM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are likely through
the TAF period. Heavier showers could yield periods of MVFR or IFR
ceilings/visibilities. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions during the
early evening with ceilings lowering. IFR conditions may occur for
KCYS after 06z, with spotty MVFR conditions elsewhere.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Minimal concerns through the weekend due to expected
widespread rain, relatively high humidities and light winds.
Concerns increasing again for the July 4th through Thursday period
as temperatures warm, humidities fall and winds increase somewhat.

&&

.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN




000
FXUS65 KCYS 302349
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
549 PM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

.Short term...

Tonight...At mid afternoon, we currently have isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms across our counties. Precipitable water
values this morning ranged from 120 to 170 percent of normal.

NAM depicts a slow moving shortwave moving east across southern
Wyoming overnight with deep moist low and mid level upslope
southeast winds advecting deep moisture into southeast Wyoming and
western Nebraska. Meanwhile, looking at the mid levels around 700
mb, we are seeing moderate to strong warm air advection looking at
the winds blowing perpendicular to the impressive 700 mb theta-e
ridge axis. With this in mind, expect scattered to numerous showers
to develop overnight, with best areal coverage over southern Albany
and Laramie counties of Wyoming and over the southern Nebraska
panhandle. Based on slow movement of storms, some storms may produce
locally heavy rain and possible flooding. Also, please see Mesoscale
Precipitation Discussion 399 issued at 158 pm MDT from the Weather
Prediction Center discussing the possibility of flash flooding.
Where rain is less prevalent, patchy areas of fog will form.

Thank you to NWS Denver/Boulder for their coordination on
expected rainfall event tonight and Friday.

Since we have not yet had widespread heavy rain the past few days,
have decided to hold off for now on a flash flood watch, and have
briefed our evening shift team who can see if and where showers and
thunderstorms develop to assess the best location for a possible
flash flood watch.

Friday...Slow moving shortwave moves east across eastern Wyoming,
and with a nearly saturated airmass in place over our eastern
counties, expect numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms
producing locally heavy rain due to slow movement of storms. Lesser
POPS further west where the atmosphere is less moist and lift will
be less prevalent. Lowered maximum temperatures from Laramie to
Cheyenne to Kimball and Sidney, under guidance, where low clouds and
rain will hamper warming significantly.

Friday night...With the shortwave moving further east of our
counties, lift will gradually wane with decreasing low and mid level
moisture, thus most rain chances ending from west to east.

Saturday...Shortwave ridging develops over western Wyoming. With a
more stable airmass in place, much of our eastern counties should be
shower and thunderstorm free in the afternoon. However, looks like
enough low and mid level moisture along a theta-e ridge over our
western counties for a chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

A warmer and drier weather pattern expected to set up over the CWA
this period as the upper high over the southern Rocky Mtns weakens
and drifts a little southeast. The stronger westerlies currently
along the US/Canadian border will sink a bit to the south turning
the flow over the CWA more westerly. This will shunt the monsoonal
moisture south of the CWA by early next week while the surface
flow becomes more westerly as well. This will bring warmer weather
for next week and keep convection more isolated in nature...and
primarily early in the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 546 PM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are likely through
the TAF period. Heavier showers could yield periods of MVFR or IFR
ceilings/visibilities. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions during the
early evening with ceilings lowering. IFR conditions may occur for
KCYS after 06z, with spotty MVFR conditions elsewhere.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Minimal concerns through the weekend due to expected
widespread rain, relatively high humidities and light winds.
Concerns increasing again for the July 4th through Thursday period
as temperatures warm, humidities fall and winds increase somewhat.

&&

.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN




000
FXUS65 KCYS 302349
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
549 PM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

.Short term...

Tonight...At mid afternoon, we currently have isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms across our counties. Precipitable water
values this morning ranged from 120 to 170 percent of normal.

NAM depicts a slow moving shortwave moving east across southern
Wyoming overnight with deep moist low and mid level upslope
southeast winds advecting deep moisture into southeast Wyoming and
western Nebraska. Meanwhile, looking at the mid levels around 700
mb, we are seeing moderate to strong warm air advection looking at
the winds blowing perpendicular to the impressive 700 mb theta-e
ridge axis. With this in mind, expect scattered to numerous showers
to develop overnight, with best areal coverage over southern Albany
and Laramie counties of Wyoming and over the southern Nebraska
panhandle. Based on slow movement of storms, some storms may produce
locally heavy rain and possible flooding. Also, please see Mesoscale
Precipitation Discussion 399 issued at 158 pm MDT from the Weather
Prediction Center discussing the possibility of flash flooding.
Where rain is less prevalent, patchy areas of fog will form.

Thank you to NWS Denver/Boulder for their coordination on
expected rainfall event tonight and Friday.

Since we have not yet had widespread heavy rain the past few days,
have decided to hold off for now on a flash flood watch, and have
briefed our evening shift team who can see if and where showers and
thunderstorms develop to assess the best location for a possible
flash flood watch.

Friday...Slow moving shortwave moves east across eastern Wyoming,
and with a nearly saturated airmass in place over our eastern
counties, expect numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms
producing locally heavy rain due to slow movement of storms. Lesser
POPS further west where the atmosphere is less moist and lift will
be less prevalent. Lowered maximum temperatures from Laramie to
Cheyenne to Kimball and Sidney, under guidance, where low clouds and
rain will hamper warming significantly.

Friday night...With the shortwave moving further east of our
counties, lift will gradually wane with decreasing low and mid level
moisture, thus most rain chances ending from west to east.

Saturday...Shortwave ridging develops over western Wyoming. With a
more stable airmass in place, much of our eastern counties should be
shower and thunderstorm free in the afternoon. However, looks like
enough low and mid level moisture along a theta-e ridge over our
western counties for a chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

A warmer and drier weather pattern expected to set up over the CWA
this period as the upper high over the southern Rocky Mtns weakens
and drifts a little southeast. The stronger westerlies currently
along the US/Canadian border will sink a bit to the south turning
the flow over the CWA more westerly. This will shunt the monsoonal
moisture south of the CWA by early next week while the surface
flow becomes more westerly as well. This will bring warmer weather
for next week and keep convection more isolated in nature...and
primarily early in the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 546 PM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are likely through
the TAF period. Heavier showers could yield periods of MVFR or IFR
ceilings/visibilities. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions during the
early evening with ceilings lowering. IFR conditions may occur for
KCYS after 06z, with spotty MVFR conditions elsewhere.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Minimal concerns through the weekend due to expected
widespread rain, relatively high humidities and light winds.
Concerns increasing again for the July 4th through Thursday period
as temperatures warm, humidities fall and winds increase somewhat.

&&

.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN




000
FXUS65 KCYS 302118
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
318 PM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

.Short term...

Tonight...At mid afternoon, we currently have isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms across our counties. Precipitable water
values this morning ranged from 120 to 170 percent of normal.

NAM depicts a slow moving shortwave moving east across southern
Wyoming overnight with deep moist low and mid level upslope
southeast winds advecting deep moisture into southeast Wyoming and
western Nebraska. Meanwhile, looking at the mid levels around 700
mb, we are seeing moderate to strong warm air advection looking at
the winds blowing perpendicular to the impressive 700 mb theta-e
ridge axis. With this in mind, expect scattered to numerous showers
to develop overnight, with best areal coverage over southern Albany
and Laramie counties of Wyoming and over the southern Nebraska
panhandle. Based on slow movement of storms, some storms may produce
locally heavy rain and possible flooding. Also, please see Mesoscale
Precipitation Discussion 399 issued at 158 pm MDT from the Weather
Prediction Center discussing the possibility of flash flooding.
Where rain is less prevalent, patchy areas of fog will form.

Thank you to NWS Denver/Boulder for their coordination on
expected rainfall event tonight and Friday.

Since we have not yet had widespread heavy rain the past few days,
have decided to hold off for now on a flash flood watch, and have
briefed our evening shift team who can see if and where showers and
thunderstorms develop to assess the best location for a possible
flash flood watch.

Friday...Slow moving shortwave moves east across eastern Wyoming,
and with a nearly saturated airmass in place over our eastern
counties, expect numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms
producing locally heavy rain due to slow movement of storms. Lesser
POPS further west where the atmosphere is less moist and lift will
be less prevalent. Lowered maximum temperatures from Laramie to
Cheyenne to Kimball and Sidney, under guidance, where low clouds and
rain will hamper warming significantly.

Friday night...With the shortwave moving further east of our
counties, lift will gradually wane with decreasing low and mid level
moisture, thus most rain chances ending from west to east.

Saturday...Shortwave ridging develops over western Wyoming. With a
more stable airmass in place, much of our eastern counties should be
shower and thunderstorm free in the afternoon. However, looks like
enough low and mid level moisture along a theta-e ridge over our
western counties for a chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

A warmer and drier weather pattern expected to set up over the CWA
this period as the upper high over the southern Rocky Mtns weakens
and drifts a little southeast. The stronger westerlies currently
along the US/Canadian border will sink a bit to the south turning
the flow over the CWA more westerly. This will shunt the monsoonal
moisture south of the CWA by early next week while the surface
flow becomes more westerly as well. This will bring warmer weather
for next week and keep convection more isolated in nature...and
primarily early in the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday morning)
Issued at 1125 AM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

VFR over all terminals through the early part of this evening
outside of sctd tstms which will bring periods of MVFR vsbys.  More
widespread MVFR/IFR cigs with areas of fog later this evening and
overnight as moist upslope flow occurs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Minimal concerns through the weekend due to expected
widespread rain, relatively high humidities and light winds.
Concerns increasing again for the July 4th through Thursday period
as temperatures warm, humidities fall and winds increase somewhat.

&&

.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN




000
FXUS63 KUNR 302115
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
315 PM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening Through Friday Night)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Current surface analysis shows cold front from northeast WY to
far northern NE, slowly sliding southward. Upper level analysis
shows ridge still in place over the Northern Rockies, with
northwest flow over the Northern Plains. Regional radars show
scattered showers and a few storms from eastern WY and the Black
Hills to western NE. Skies are partly to mostly cloudy with temps
in the 70s and lower 80s.

Unsettled and cooler weather can be expected across the area through
Friday as cool front settles south and west of the area. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected across northeast
WY, the Black Hills, and southwest SD late today and tonight. A more
widespread chance for showers and thunderstorms can be expected
Friday as a stronger disturbance crosses the area. With the front
south of the area, available instability is rather weak, especially
to the east of the Black Hills. Will get some return of moisture
across northeast WY and far western SD on Friday, but chances for
severe storms look minimal at this point. Much of the activity may
end up being in the form of showers, especially to the east of the
Black Hills. Highs on Friday will be in the 70s to around 80
degrees, warmest over northeast WY in closer vicinity to the stalled
out boundary to the west. Some 60s across the Black Hills with
showers likely. Showers and storms should taper off and push south
of the area by late Friday night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Through Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

flat upper level ridge remains over the northern plains
this weekend, with flow becoming more southwesterly next week.
marginal instability and weak ripples in the flow may result in some
isolated shower/thunderstorm activity through the holiday weekend
into the middle of next week. Temperatures will be near average
Saturday with above average temperatures next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued At 315 PM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over
parts of northeast Wyoming, the Black Hills, and southwest South
Dakota late this afternoon and tonight. Local mvfr cigs/ifr
visibility with the stronger storms. otherwise vfr conditions
expected through Friday morning.

&&

.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7




000
FXUS65 KRIW 302112
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
312 PM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Friday

A high pressure ridge aloft extending from the Desert Southwest
north across the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies will pump
subtropical moisture north...then east across western and central
Wyoming. The air mass will be unstable due to afternoon heating
supporting the development of afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms most numerous over the mountains. Temperatures will
remain very warm to hot. The strongest winds will be outflow winds
from convection. Relative humidity will be favorable in the
mountains but low in the valleys.

.LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Thursday

The high pressure ridge will slowly shift east and will be pushed
south by a series of pacific low pressure troughs moving across
the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies. Showers and
thunderstorms will decrease in coverage through the weekend and
then become mostly dry...hot and windy by Tuesday. a cold front
will pass south bringing a better chance of showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday and more likely on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

VFR conditions to prevail through forecast period. Scattered to
numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms will occur over most of
the region into this evening....especially west of the
divide...ending generally from northwest to southeast. Some of the
stronger storms will produce heavy rain, small hail, frequent
lightning and wind gusts 15 to 30 kts. Local MVFR conditions will be
possible as heavy rain showers that may reduce visibility for a
short period. Showers and storms will decrease in coverage by 06z
with isolated lingering activity through 12z. Shower and
thunderstorm coverage will be more isolated to widely scattered
in nature and more confined to the mountains than on Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A high pressure ridge aloft extending from the Desert Southwest
north across the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies will pump
subtropical moisture north...then east across western and
central Wyoming. The air mass will be unstable due to afternoon
heating supporting the development of afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms most numerous over the mountains.
Temperatures will remain very warm to hot. The strongest winds
will be outflow winds from convection. Relative humidity will be
favorable in the mountains but low in the valleys. Mixing heights
will be high with moderate transport winds combining for
excellent smoke dispersal in the afternoons. This will continue
into the weekend. Drying with increased wind is expected Monday
and especially on Tuesday.

&&

.RIW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...C.Baker
LONG TERM...C.Baker
AVIATION...Braun
FIRE WEATHER...C.Baker




000
FXUS65 KRIW 302112
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
312 PM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Friday

A high pressure ridge aloft extending from the Desert Southwest
north across the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies will pump
subtropical moisture north...then east across western and central
Wyoming. The air mass will be unstable due to afternoon heating
supporting the development of afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms most numerous over the mountains. Temperatures will
remain very warm to hot. The strongest winds will be outflow winds
from convection. Relative humidity will be favorable in the
mountains but low in the valleys.

.LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Thursday

The high pressure ridge will slowly shift east and will be pushed
south by a series of pacific low pressure troughs moving across
the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies. Showers and
thunderstorms will decrease in coverage through the weekend and
then become mostly dry...hot and windy by Tuesday. a cold front
will pass south bringing a better chance of showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday and more likely on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

VFR conditions to prevail through forecast period. Scattered to
numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms will occur over most of
the region into this evening....especially west of the
divide...ending generally from northwest to southeast. Some of the
stronger storms will produce heavy rain, small hail, frequent
lightning and wind gusts 15 to 30 kts. Local MVFR conditions will be
possible as heavy rain showers that may reduce visibility for a
short period. Showers and storms will decrease in coverage by 06z
with isolated lingering activity through 12z. Shower and
thunderstorm coverage will be more isolated to widely scattered
in nature and more confined to the mountains than on Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A high pressure ridge aloft extending from the Desert Southwest
north across the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies will pump
subtropical moisture north...then east across western and
central Wyoming. The air mass will be unstable due to afternoon
heating supporting the development of afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms most numerous over the mountains.
Temperatures will remain very warm to hot. The strongest winds
will be outflow winds from convection. Relative humidity will be
favorable in the mountains but low in the valleys. Mixing heights
will be high with moderate transport winds combining for
excellent smoke dispersal in the afternoons. This will continue
into the weekend. Drying with increased wind is expected Monday
and especially on Tuesday.

&&

.RIW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...C.Baker
LONG TERM...C.Baker
AVIATION...Braun
FIRE WEATHER...C.Baker




000
FXUS65 KCYS 301744
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1144 AM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1122 AM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Inherited gridded forecasts in decent shape with some minor
modifications based on trends and the 12Z model guidance. We
currently have scattered showers producing light to moderate
rain in a 50 mile wide swath from the Snowy Range to Chadron.

By late afternoon...two shortwaves...one over Northwest Colorado
and the other over eastern Colorado will aid in vertical lift
and also induce deepening east and southeast low and mid level
winds to moisten the airmass sufficiently for scattered to
numerous showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms to
develop with the best areal coverage as the NAM depicts from
Rawlins to Laramie to Cheyenne...where the POPS have been
adjusted accordingly higher. Weak steering winds will lead to
some storms producing locally heavy rain due to the slow movement
of the storms.

Agree with the Storm Prediction Center marginal risk today over
southeast Wyoming and the southern Nebraska panhandle where
late morning surface based CAPES range from 1000 to 1500 J/kg
and wind shear is under 30 knots...so thinking now is that a
few storms could produce small hail and wind gusts to 50 mph
this afternoon and evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 400 AM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Main forecast concerns late this week and into the weekend will be
the potential for heavy rainfall through Friday night and strong
to marginally severe thunderstorms today. Had a cold front move
across the High Plains last night. This cold front has stalled
near the Laramie Range early this morning and seems to be located
just east of the city of Laramie at this hour. Believe the
position of this initial front will not change much today as a
backdoor front will move south and west across the area and stall
near the Nebraska/Wyoming border this evening. This will provide
very good LLVL convergence with high moisture content east of the
Laramie Range. Meanwhile...models show a weak disturbance aloft
slowly moving east across the area while PW`s remain between 1.00
to 1.50 inches. These features will combine to produce a fairly
widespread moderate to heavy rain event today through Friday. The
best chance of strong to severe thunderstorms will be today since
more sunshine is expected resulting in more LLVL instability. The
primary hazards will be hail and strong winds...but heavy rainfall
and flash flooding is starting to become more of a
concern...especially near the Colorado border this afternoon and
this evening. It will be cooler today with highs in the 70`s to
low 80`s. Showers and isolated thunderstorms may continue through
midnight tonight. If the rainfall ends with clearing skies towards
sunrise Friday morning...may see some patchy fog before showers
and thunderstorms quickly redevelop on Friday.

Similar conditions are expected Friday afternoon with high
temperatures struggling to reach 70 degrees across most of the
forecast area...although some locations along and near the Pine
Ridge and Cheyenne Ridge may struggle to reach 65 during the day
due to persistent low clouds and fog. Given the time of the
year...decided not to lower temperatures any further since even a
few peaks of sunshine will push temperatures into the 70`s.
Although it will be cooler...PW`s will be even higher on Friday
with plenty of instability as a stronger upper level disturbance
slowly moves over the area. May see some moderate to heavy
rainfall amounts out of these two events through Friday night...so
will have to closely monitor the potential for flash flooding.
Increased POP between 50 to 65 percent across most of the area
with the exception of the lower elevations across Albany and
Carbon county.

Saturday will be a slight improvement as the upper level
disturbance will push over the area and eventually east. Some
drier air aloft will move into the area but there will still be
plenty of moisture and instability south of the North Platte River
valley. Expect another round of scattered showers and
thunderstorms along and south of the I80 corridor.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 AM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Hot and dry conditions return to the region for the end of the
holiday weekend and into the middle of next week. Weak
west/southwest flow aloft will prevail as main belt of westerlies
is shunted north of the area. Medium range models are consistent
with diurnally driven convective chances in and around the
southeast Wyoming mountains both Sunday and Monday. Do not expect
much coverage given weak progd instability parameters, but should
at a minimum see afternoon build-ups each day. Otherwise, heights
will be on the rise early next week as four corners high becomes
re- established amplifying the llvl thermal ridge amplifies. These
warmer mid-level temps should keep a lid on convective chances ovr
the plains. H7 temperature progs soar to 16-18C by the middle of
next week. This will easily yield mid/upper 90s ovr lower
elevations of SE Wyoming and the western Nebraska Panhandle. Would
not be at all surprised to see triple digit heat ovr parts of the
western Nebraska Panhandle and North Platte River Valley Tue-Wed.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 538 AM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

An active upcoming period at most southeast Wyoming and western
Nebraska terminals as thunderstorms develop 16-20z. Thunderstorm
coverage will be greater compared to recent days so felt confident
in adding -TSRA as the predominating condition for a time this
afternoon. The exception will be at KRWL, where coverage will
likely be a bit less, thus greater uncertainty exists. Although a
few storms may become strong, do not anticipate widespread severe
activity. Very heavy rain is anticipated with these thunderstorms
especially at KLAR, KCYS, KBFF and KSNY. Convection will gradually
dissipate this evening, with the potential of fog developing. So,
VFR conditions initially will give way to MVFR in thunderstorms.
May see some localized IFR in fog later tonight.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 301 AM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Fire weather concerns will be minimal through early next week as
a wet and cool weather pattern will prevail through this weekend.
There is a good chance for widespread wetting rainfall today
through Friday night across the area. Drier and warmer weather
is expected by early next week and possibly as early as Sunday as
an upper level ridge builds over the central Rockys.

&&

.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RUBIN
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...CAH
FIRE WEATHER...TJT




000
FXUS65 KCYS 301725
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1125 AM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 400 AM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Main forecast concerns late this week and into the weekend will be
the potential for heavy rainfall through Friday night and strong
to marginally severe thunderstorms today. Had a cold front move
across the High Plains last night. This cold front has stalled
near the Laramie Range early this morning and seems to be located
just east of the city of Laramie at this hour. Believe the
position of this initial front will not change much today as a
backdoor front will move south and west across the area and stall
near the Nebraska/Wyoming border this evening. This will provide
very good LLVL convergence with high moisture content east of the
Laramie Range. Meanwhile...models show a weak disturbance aloft
slowly moving east across the area while PW`s remain between 1.00
to 1.50 inches. These features will combine to produce a fairly
widespread moderate to heavy rain event today through Friday. The
best chance of strong to severe thunderstorms will be today since
more sunshine is expected resulting in more LLVL instability. The
primary hazards will be hail and strong winds...but heavy rainfall
and flash flooding is starting to become more of a
concern...especially near the Colorado border this afternoon and
this evening. It will be cooler today with highs in the 70`s to
low 80`s. Showers and isolated thunderstorms may continue through
midnight tonight. If the rainfall ends with clearing skies towards
sunrise Friday morning...may see some patchy fog before showers
and thunderstorms quickly redevelop on Friday.

Similar conditions are expected Friday afternoon with high
temperatures struggling to reach 70 degrees across most of the
forecast area...although some locations along and near the Pine
Ridge and Cheyenne Ridge may struggle to reach 65 during the day
due to persistent low clouds and fog. Given the time of the
year...decided not to lower temperatures any further since even a
few peaks of sunshine will push temperatures into the 70`s.
Although it will be cooler...PW`s will be even higher on Friday
with plenty of instability as a stronger upper level disturbance
slowly moves over the area. May see some moderate to heavy
rainfall amounts out of these two events through Friday night...so
will have to closely monitor the potential for flash flooding.
Increased POP between 50 to 65 percent across most of the area
with the exception of the lower elevations across Albany and
Carbon county.

Saturday will be a slight improvement as the upper level
disturbance will push over the area and eventually east. Some
drier air aloft will move into the area but there will still be
plenty of moisture and instability south of the North Platte River
valley. Expect another round of scattered showers and
thunderstorms along and south of the I80 corridor.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 AM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Hot and dry conditions return to the region for the end of the
holiday weekend and into the middle of next week. Weak
west/southwest flow aloft will prevail as main belt of westerlies
is shunted north of the area. Medium range models are consistent
with diurnally driven convective chances in and around the
southeast Wyoming mountains both Sunday and Monday. Do not expect
much coverage given weak progd instability params, but should at a
minimum see afternoon build-ups each day. Otherwise, heights will
be on the rise early next week as four corners high becomes re-
established amplifying the llvl thermal ridge amplifies. These
warmer mid-level temps should keep a lid on convective chances
over the plains. H7 temperature progs soar to 16-18C by the middle
of next week. This will easily yield mid/upper 90s over lower
elevations of SE Wyoming and the western Nebraska Panhandle. Would
not be at all surprised to see triple digit heat over parts of the
western Nebraska Panhandle and North Platte River Valley Tue-Wed.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday morning)
Issued at 1125 AM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

VFR over all terminals through the early part of this evening
outside of sctd tstms which will bring periods of MVFR vsbys.  More
widespread MVFR/IFR cigs with areas of fog later this evening and
overnight as moist upslope flow occurs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 301 AM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Fire weather concerns will be minimal through early next week as
a wet and cool weather pattern will prevail through this weekend.
There is a good chance for widespread wetting rainfall today
through Friday night across the area. Drier and warmer weather
is expected by early next week and possibly as early as Sunday as
an upper level ridge builds over the central Rockys.

&&

.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...TJT




000
FXUS65 KRIW 301711
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
1110 AM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...Thursday through Saturday night

Monsoonal moisture is now spreading across the area. Some showers
and isolated thunderstorms continue early this morning across much
of the area although most are of the garden variety and not very
strong. This should be the story for today. With the monsoonal
moisture over the area, there will be a fair amount of mid to high
level clouds around along with the chance of showers at anytime.
This will help to keep temperatures cooler with the lowest high
temperatures we have seen in a while. This will also help limit the
strength of any thunderstorms that develop with the area only under
a general risk of thunder. The models show precipitable water values
climbing to over an inch in many areas so there will be plenty of
moisture to work with so locally heavy rain would be the main threat
from any thunderstorm. By later tonight the deepest moisture should
be pushed to the south and east so there should be a decrease in
activity after midnight tonight.

Starting on Friday there should be a slow decrease in thunderstorm
activity. Precipitable water levels will lower somewhat Friday but
still be in the 0.75 to 1.00 inch range for most areas, enough to
produce more isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms.
With ridging beginning to build back and heights rising,
temperatures will be warmer and any thunderstorms may form later in
the day than on Thursday. Models are zeroing in on the western
mountains and eastern portions of the county warning area with a rip
off zone in the middle. Both the NAM and GFS show this so this
looked reasonable to us. With weak steering winds, showers and
thunderstorms could be slow movers.

Higher heights and even drier air will move into the state for
Saturday, especially in west of the divide where precipitable water
values may develop as low as 0.25 inches. Any thunderstorms on this
day should be confined to the mountains and adjacent foothills with
light steering winds continuing. Temperatures will also continue to
climb, but back to levels near to slightly above normal. So for the
start of the holiday weekend, it looks warm but not hot as isolated showers
and storms through 18z. After 18z new
firecracker.

.LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday

Mean ridge axis moves from the western U.S. to the Southern High
Plains which will allow the Gulf of Alaska upper low to move into
Swrn Canada and the nrn part of the PacNW. Models have generally
trended a little further north with this trough since last night.
Wly flow with embedded weak disturbances starts this period out on
Sunday with threat of at least isold showers and tstms peaking
during the afternoon and evening hours. Flow begins to turn more
sw early next week with a slow drying trend in the atmosphere
leading to less and less storms around. Still can`t rule out isold
storms in and near the mountains but overall most areas will be
dry. The late afternoons and evenings will likely be breezy to
locally windy at times as a few disturbances comes out from our
swrn Canada/PacNW upper low with a couple fronts hanging around MT
and possibly Nrn Wyoming at times. Overall though it just looks
very warm to hot through the period. There could still be one
stronger/further south disturbance impacting the area around
Wednesday night or Thursday but confidence is low tonight based on
the fluctuating model solutions. ECMWF is stronger with this idea
on Thursday with a rather strong front pushing s and sewd across
the area with much cooler air for at least the north. The GFS is
weaker tonight. Forecast is still fairly warm to end the medium
range period and we`ll just look at the trends once again tonight
because it does still look like the mean upper ridge will shift
well ewd into at least the wrn part of the Srn High Plains which
would at least open the door for the current Gulf of Alaska upper
low to move ewd and leave our nwrn/nrn zones open to stronger
shortwaves.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

VFR conditions to prevail through forecast period. Scattered to
numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms will occur over most of
the region this afternoon and evening....especially west of the
divide. Some of the stronger storms will produce heavy rain, small
hail, and wind gusts 15 to 30 kts. Local MVFR conditions will be
possible as heavy rain showers that may reduce visibility for a
brief period. Showers and storms will decrease in coverage by 06z
Fri with lingering activity through 12z Fri.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fire danger concerns should decrease today. A plume of monsoonal
moisture moving across the state should result in more cloud cover,
cooler temperatures and relative humidity remaining above critical
thresholds. Wind should be light to moderate outside of any
thunderstorm where erratic winds are possible. Smoke dispersal and
mixing will be generally fair to good.
&&

.RIW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hattings
LONG TERM...PS
AVIATION...Braun
FIRE WEATHER...Hattings




000
FXUS65 KRIW 301711
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
1110 AM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...Thursday through Saturday night

Monsoonal moisture is now spreading across the area. Some showers
and isolated thunderstorms continue early this morning across much
of the area although most are of the garden variety and not very
strong. This should be the story for today. With the monsoonal
moisture over the area, there will be a fair amount of mid to high
level clouds around along with the chance of showers at anytime.
This will help to keep temperatures cooler with the lowest high
temperatures we have seen in a while. This will also help limit the
strength of any thunderstorms that develop with the area only under
a general risk of thunder. The models show precipitable water values
climbing to over an inch in many areas so there will be plenty of
moisture to work with so locally heavy rain would be the main threat
from any thunderstorm. By later tonight the deepest moisture should
be pushed to the south and east so there should be a decrease in
activity after midnight tonight.

Starting on Friday there should be a slow decrease in thunderstorm
activity. Precipitable water levels will lower somewhat Friday but
still be in the 0.75 to 1.00 inch range for most areas, enough to
produce more isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms.
With ridging beginning to build back and heights rising,
temperatures will be warmer and any thunderstorms may form later in
the day than on Thursday. Models are zeroing in on the western
mountains and eastern portions of the county warning area with a rip
off zone in the middle. Both the NAM and GFS show this so this
looked reasonable to us. With weak steering winds, showers and
thunderstorms could be slow movers.

Higher heights and even drier air will move into the state for
Saturday, especially in west of the divide where precipitable water
values may develop as low as 0.25 inches. Any thunderstorms on this
day should be confined to the mountains and adjacent foothills with
light steering winds continuing. Temperatures will also continue to
climb, but back to levels near to slightly above normal. So for the
start of the holiday weekend, it looks warm but not hot as isolated showers
and storms through 18z. After 18z new
firecracker.

.LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday

Mean ridge axis moves from the western U.S. to the Southern High
Plains which will allow the Gulf of Alaska upper low to move into
Swrn Canada and the nrn part of the PacNW. Models have generally
trended a little further north with this trough since last night.
Wly flow with embedded weak disturbances starts this period out on
Sunday with threat of at least isold showers and tstms peaking
during the afternoon and evening hours. Flow begins to turn more
sw early next week with a slow drying trend in the atmosphere
leading to less and less storms around. Still can`t rule out isold
storms in and near the mountains but overall most areas will be
dry. The late afternoons and evenings will likely be breezy to
locally windy at times as a few disturbances comes out from our
swrn Canada/PacNW upper low with a couple fronts hanging around MT
and possibly Nrn Wyoming at times. Overall though it just looks
very warm to hot through the period. There could still be one
stronger/further south disturbance impacting the area around
Wednesday night or Thursday but confidence is low tonight based on
the fluctuating model solutions. ECMWF is stronger with this idea
on Thursday with a rather strong front pushing s and sewd across
the area with much cooler air for at least the north. The GFS is
weaker tonight. Forecast is still fairly warm to end the medium
range period and we`ll just look at the trends once again tonight
because it does still look like the mean upper ridge will shift
well ewd into at least the wrn part of the Srn High Plains which
would at least open the door for the current Gulf of Alaska upper
low to move ewd and leave our nwrn/nrn zones open to stronger
shortwaves.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

VFR conditions to prevail through forecast period. Scattered to
numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms will occur over most of
the region this afternoon and evening....especially west of the
divide. Some of the stronger storms will produce heavy rain, small
hail, and wind gusts 15 to 30 kts. Local MVFR conditions will be
possible as heavy rain showers that may reduce visibility for a
brief period. Showers and storms will decrease in coverage by 06z
Fri with lingering activity through 12z Fri.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fire danger concerns should decrease today. A plume of monsoonal
moisture moving across the state should result in more cloud cover,
cooler temperatures and relative humidity remaining above critical
thresholds. Wind should be light to moderate outside of any
thunderstorm where erratic winds are possible. Smoke dispersal and
mixing will be generally fair to good.
&&

.RIW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hattings
LONG TERM...PS
AVIATION...Braun
FIRE WEATHER...Hattings




000
FXUS63 KUNR 301706
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1106 AM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 952 AM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Current surface analysis shows cold front from southeast MT to
central SD, slowly sliding south across the area. Upper level
analysis shows ridge still in place over the Northern Rockies,
with northwest flow over the Northern Plains. Regional radars
show light showers from southern portions of northeast WY and
east-central WY into far southwest SD and the far western NE
panhandle. Skies are partly to mostly cloudy with temps mostly in
the mid 60s to mid 70s.

Have updated to remove fog and adjust pops and cloud cover for the
late morning and early afternoon hours. Main chances for showers
and afternoon thunderstorms will be from northeast WY into
southwest SD. Bulk of available instability for stronger storms
has pushed south of the area, so the threat for severe storms is
minimal at best for later today. As front sags further south this
afternoon, high temps will range from the upper 70s over northwest
SD to near 85 over far southwest SD, with 70s across the Black
Hills.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today Through Friday Night)
Issued at 204 AM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Northwest upper flow continues over the region, with a ridge over
the Rockies and a trough over the eastern states. Most of the storm
activity associated with a weak upper wave has moved out of the
CWA, but there are There are some showers over parts of
northeastern WY, and newly developed showers over the southern
Hills. Cold front is beginning to move into SD from the north.
Winds are light and variable, and temperatures are in the 50s to
lower 60s.

Light northeasterly winds may result in some fog/low clouds across
northwestern SD this morning, which several models are hinting at.
Brought mention southward to the northeastern foothills for any
upsloping that might occur.

Cool high pressure will slide into the northern plains today, as
cold front stalls across northeastern WY. Pressure gradient will
tighten a bit across the area, and northeasterly winds will become
breezy across the western SD plains. Southeasterly return flow will
develop across southwestern SD into northeastern WY, where some weak
instability will develop. Showers and thunderstorms are expected
across northeastern WY, the Black Hills, and southwestern SD today.
These will be enhanced by another shortwave passing through in the
evening, but the threat for severe weather should stay south of the
CWA where instability is better. Highs will be around 80s, with 70s
in the Black Hills.

Showers/storms may continue across the same areas overnight along
the baroclinic zone, with some weak instability available. Lows will
be generally in the 50s.

Surface high shifts southeastward Friday, and breezy return flow
develops across the CWA. Forecast soundings show fairly moist
profiles and weak instability. Under continued active flow, expect
scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday, gradually decreasing
Friday night. Cool airmass and easterly low-level flow will result
in 70s for highs Friday, with 60s in the Black Hills.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Through Wednesday)
Issued at 204 AM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Upper ridging over northern plains will give way to more of a
zonal flow pattern late in the weekend, then becoming
southwesterly flow aloft early next week as an upper trough moves
into the Pacific Northwest. A shortwave trough will pass to the
south of the area Sat & Sun, with some storms possible, mainly
over southern SD although there might be enough instability in to
produce isolated thunderstorms in a narrow N-S band on either side
of the WY/SD border. As the upper flow transitions to
southwesterly early next week, will continue to see isolated to
scattered thunderstorms as southerly low level flow continues to
advect moisture into the region. Temperatures will be near average
on Saturday, with highs climbing to 10-15 degrees warmer than
average early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Friday)
Issued At 1104 AM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over parts of
northeast Wyoming, the Black Hills, and southwest South Dakota
this afternoon and tonight. Local mvfr cigs/ifr visibility with
the stronger storms. otherwise vfr conditions expected through
Friday morning.

&&

.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

Update...26
SHORT TERM...Pojorlie
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...7




000
FXUS63 KUNR 301706
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1106 AM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 952 AM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Current surface analysis shows cold front from southeast MT to
central SD, slowly sliding south across the area. Upper level
analysis shows ridge still in place over the Northern Rockies,
with northwest flow over the Northern Plains. Regional radars
show light showers from southern portions of northeast WY and
east-central WY into far southwest SD and the far western NE
panhandle. Skies are partly to mostly cloudy with temps mostly in
the mid 60s to mid 70s.

Have updated to remove fog and adjust pops and cloud cover for the
late morning and early afternoon hours. Main chances for showers
and afternoon thunderstorms will be from northeast WY into
southwest SD. Bulk of available instability for stronger storms
has pushed south of the area, so the threat for severe storms is
minimal at best for later today. As front sags further south this
afternoon, high temps will range from the upper 70s over northwest
SD to near 85 over far southwest SD, with 70s across the Black
Hills.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today Through Friday Night)
Issued at 204 AM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Northwest upper flow continues over the region, with a ridge over
the Rockies and a trough over the eastern states. Most of the storm
activity associated with a weak upper wave has moved out of the
CWA, but there are There are some showers over parts of
northeastern WY, and newly developed showers over the southern
Hills. Cold front is beginning to move into SD from the north.
Winds are light and variable, and temperatures are in the 50s to
lower 60s.

Light northeasterly winds may result in some fog/low clouds across
northwestern SD this morning, which several models are hinting at.
Brought mention southward to the northeastern foothills for any
upsloping that might occur.

Cool high pressure will slide into the northern plains today, as
cold front stalls across northeastern WY. Pressure gradient will
tighten a bit across the area, and northeasterly winds will become
breezy across the western SD plains. Southeasterly return flow will
develop across southwestern SD into northeastern WY, where some weak
instability will develop. Showers and thunderstorms are expected
across northeastern WY, the Black Hills, and southwestern SD today.
These will be enhanced by another shortwave passing through in the
evening, but the threat for severe weather should stay south of the
CWA where instability is better. Highs will be around 80s, with 70s
in the Black Hills.

Showers/storms may continue across the same areas overnight along
the baroclinic zone, with some weak instability available. Lows will
be generally in the 50s.

Surface high shifts southeastward Friday, and breezy return flow
develops across the CWA. Forecast soundings show fairly moist
profiles and weak instability. Under continued active flow, expect
scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday, gradually decreasing
Friday night. Cool airmass and easterly low-level flow will result
in 70s for highs Friday, with 60s in the Black Hills.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Through Wednesday)
Issued at 204 AM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Upper ridging over northern plains will give way to more of a
zonal flow pattern late in the weekend, then becoming
southwesterly flow aloft early next week as an upper trough moves
into the Pacific Northwest. A shortwave trough will pass to the
south of the area Sat & Sun, with some storms possible, mainly
over southern SD although there might be enough instability in to
produce isolated thunderstorms in a narrow N-S band on either side
of the WY/SD border. As the upper flow transitions to
southwesterly early next week, will continue to see isolated to
scattered thunderstorms as southerly low level flow continues to
advect moisture into the region. Temperatures will be near average
on Saturday, with highs climbing to 10-15 degrees warmer than
average early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Friday)
Issued At 1104 AM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over parts of
northeast Wyoming, the Black Hills, and southwest South Dakota
this afternoon and tonight. Local mvfr cigs/ifr visibility with
the stronger storms. otherwise vfr conditions expected through
Friday morning.

&&

.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

Update...26
SHORT TERM...Pojorlie
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...7




000
FXUS63 KUNR 301552
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
952 AM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 952 AM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Current surface analysis shows cold front from southeast MT to
central SD, slowly sliding south across the area. Upper level
analysis shows ridge still in place over the Northern Rockies,
with northwest flow over the Northern Plains. Regional radars
show light showers from southern portions of northeast WY and
east-central WY into far southwest SD and the far western NE
panhandle. Skies are partly to mostly cloudy with temps mostly in
the mid 60s to mid 70s.

Have updated to remove fog and adjust pops and cloud cover for the
late morning and early afternoon hours. Main chances for showers
and afternoon thunderstorms will be from northeast WY into
southwest SD. Bulk of available instability for stronger storms
has pushed south of the area, so the threat for severe storms is
minimal at best for later today. As front sags further south this
afternoon, high temps will range from the upper 70s over northwest
SD to near 85 over far southwest SD, with 70s across the Black
Hills.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today Through Friday Night)
Issued at 204 AM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Northwest upper flow continues over the region, with a ridge over
the Rockies and a trough over the eastern states. Most of the storm
activity associated with a weak upper wave has moved out of the
CWA, but there are There are some showers over parts of
northeastern WY, and newly developed showers over the southern
Hills. Cold front is beginning to move into SD from the north.
Winds are light and variable, and temperatures are in the 50s to
lower 60s.

Light northeasterly winds may result in some fog/low clouds across
northwestern SD this morning, which several models are hinting at.
Brought mention southward to the northeastern foothills for any
upsloping that might occur.

Cool high pressure will slide into the northern plains today, as
cold front stalls across northeastern WY. Pressure gradient will
tighten a bit across the area, and northeasterly winds will become
breezy across the western SD plains. Southeasterly return flow will
develop across southwestern SD into northeastern WY, where some weak
instability will develop. Showers and thunderstorms are expected
across northeastern WY, the Black Hills, and southwestern SD today.
These will be enhanced by another shortwave passing through in the
evening, but the threat for severe weather should stay south of the
CWA where instability is better. Highs will be around 80s, with 70s
in the Black Hills.

Showers/storms may continue across the same areas overnight along
the baroclinic zone, with some weak instability available. Lows will
be generally in the 50s.

Surface high shifts southeastward Friday, and breezy return flow
develops across the CWA. Forecast soundings show fairly moist
profiles and weak instability. Under continued active flow, expect
scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday, gradually decreasing
Friday night. Cool airmass and easterly low-level flow will result
in 70s for highs Friday, with 60s in the Black Hills.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Through Wednesday)
Issued at 204 AM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Upper ridging over northern plains will give way to more of a
zonal flow pattern late in the weekend, then becoming
southwesterly flow aloft early next week as an upper trough moves
into the Pacific Northwest. A shortwave trough will pass to the
south of the area Sat & Sun, with some storms possible, mainly
over southern SD although there might be enough instability in to
produce isolated thunderstorms in a narrow N-S band on either side
of the WY/SD border. As the upper flow transitions to
southwesterly early next week, will continue to see isolated to
scattered thunderstorms as southerly low level flow continues to
advect moisture into the region. Temperatures will be near average
on Saturday, with highs climbing to 10-15 degrees warmer than
average early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued At 204 AM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Lcl IFR conditions in patchy fog are possible over
northwestern South Dakota and along the Spearfish-Sturgis foothills
generally from 10Z-15Z this morning, otherwise VFR conditions will
prevail. Isold-Sct showers and thunderstorms are expected over parts
of northeastern Wyoming, the Black Hills area and southwestern South
Dakota this morning with better chances for thunderstorms over those
same areas this afternoon and tonight.


&&

.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

Update...26
SHORT TERM...Pojorlie
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...10




000
FXUS65 KCYS 301145
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
545 AM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 400 AM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Main forecast concerns late this week and into the weekend will be
the potential for heavy rainfall through Friday night and strong
to marginally severe thunderstorms today. Had a cold front move
across the High Plains last night. This cold front has stalled
near the Laramie Range early this morning and seems to be located
just east of the city of Laramie at this hour. Believe the
position of this initial front will not change much today as a
backdoor front will move south and west across the area and stall
near the Nebraska/Wyoming border this evening. This will provide
very good LLVL convergence with high moisture content east of the
Laramie Range. Meanwhile...models show a weak disturbance aloft
slowly moving east across the area while PW`s remain between 1.00
to 1.50 inches. These features will combine to produce a fairly
widespread moderate to heavy rain event today through Friday. The
best chance of strong to severe thunderstorms will be today since
more sunshine is expected resulting in more LLVL instability. The
primary hazards will be hail and strong winds...but heavy rainfall
and flash flooding is starting to become more of a
concern...especially near the Colorado border this afternoon and
this evening. It will be cooler today with highs in the 70`s to
low 80`s. Showers and isolated thunderstorms may continue through
midnight tonight. If the rainfall ends with clearing skies towards
sunrise Friday morning...may see some patchy fog before showers
and thunderstorms quickly redevelop on Friday.

Similar conditions are expected Friday afternoon with high
temperatures struggling to reach 70 degrees across most of the
forecast area...although some locations along and near the Pine
Ridge and Cheyenne Ridge may struggle to reach 65 during the day
due to persistent low clouds and fog. Given the time of the
year...decided not to lower temperatures any further since even a
few peaks of sunshine will push temperatures into the 70`s.
Although it will be cooler...PW`s will be even higher on Friday
with plenty of instability as a stronger upper level disturbance
slowly moves over the area. May see some moderate to heavy
rainfall amounts out of these two events through Friday night...so
will have to closely monitor the potential for flash flooding.
Increased POP between 50 to 65 percent across most of the area
with the exception of the lower elevations across Albany and
Carbon county.

Saturday will be a slight improvement as the upper level
disturbance will push over the area and eventually east. Some
drier air aloft will move into the area but there will still be
plenty of moisture and instability south of the North Platte River
valley. Expect another round of scattered showers and
thunderstorms along and south of the I80 corridor.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 AM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Hot and dry conditions return to the region for the end of the
holiday weekend and into the middle of next week. Weak
west/southwest flow aloft will prevail as main belt of westerlies
is shunted north of the area. Medium range models are consistent
with diurnally driven convective chances in and around the
southeast Wyoming mountains both Sunday and Monday. Do not expect
much coverage given weak progd instability params, but should at a
minimum see afternoon build-ups each day. Otherwise, heights will
be on the rise early next week as four corners high becomes re-
established amplifying the llvl thermal ridge amplifies. These
warmer mid-level temps should keep a lid on convective chances
ovr the plains. H7 temperature progs soar to 16-18C by the middle
of next week. This will easily yield mid/upper 90s ovr lower
elevations of SE Wyoming and the western Nebraska Panhandle. Would
not be at all surprised to see triple digit heat ovr parts of the
western Nebraska Panhandle and North Platte River Valley Tue-Wed.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 538 AM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

An active upcoming period at most southeast Wyoming and western
Nebraska terminals as thunderstorms develop 16-20z. Thunderstorm
coverage will be greater compared to recent days so felt confident
in adding -TSRA as the predominating condition for a time this
afternoon. The exception will be at KRWL, where coverage will
likely be a bit less, thus greater uncertainty exists. Although a
few storms may become strong, do not anticipate widepsread severe
activity. Very heavy rain is anticipated with these thunderstorms
especially at KLAR, KCYS, KBFF and KSNY. Convection will gradually
dissipate this evening, with the potential of fog developing. So,
VFR conditions initially will give way to MVFR in thunderstorms.
May see some localized IFR in fog later tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 301 AM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Fire weather concerns will be minimal through early next week as
a wet and cool weather pattern will prevail through this weekend.
There is a good chance for widespread wetting rainfall today
through Friday night across the area. Drier and warmer weather
is expected by early next week and possibly as early as Sunday as
an upper level ridge builds over the central Rockys.

&&

.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...CAH
FIRE WEATHER...TJT




000
FXUS65 KCYS 301003
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
403 AM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 400 AM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Main forecast concerns late this week and into the weekend will be
the potential for heavy rainfall through Friday night and strong
to marginally severe thunderstorms today. Had a cold front move
across the High Plains last night. This cold front has stalled
near the Laramie Range early this morning and seems to be located
just east of the city of Laramie at this hour. Believe the
position of this initial front will not change much today as a
backdoor front will move south and west across the area and stall
near the Nebraska/Wyoming border this evening. This will provide
very good LLVL convergence with high moisture content east of the
Laramie Range. Meanwhile...models show a weak disturbance aloft
slowly moving east across the area while PW`s remain between 1.00
to 1.50 inches. These features will combine to produce a fairly
widespread moderate to heavy rain event today through Friday. The
best chance of strong to severe thunderstorms will be today since
more sunshine is expected resulting in more LLVL instability. The
primary hazards will be hail and strong winds...but heavy rainfall
and flash flooding is starting to become more of a
concern...especially near the Colorado border this afternoon and
this evening. It will be cooler today with highs in the 70`s to
low 80`s. Showers and isolated thunderstorms may continue through
midnight tonight. If the rainfall ends with clearing skies towards
sunrise Friday morning...may see some patchy fog before showers
and thunderstorms quickly redevelop on Friday.

Similar conditions are expected Friday afternoon with high
temperatures struggling to reach 70 degrees across most of the
forecast area...although some locations along and near the Pine
Ridge and Cheyenne Ridge may struggle to reach 65 during the day
due to persistent low clouds and fog. Given the time of the
year...decided not to lower temperatures any further since even a
few peaks of sunshine will push temperatures into the 70`s.
Although it will be cooler...PW`s will be even higher on Friday
with plenty of instability as a stronger upper level disturbance
slowly moves over the area. May see some moderate to heavy
rainfall amounts out of these two events through Friday night...so
will have to closely monitor the potential for flash flooding.
Increased POP between 50 to 65 percent across most of the area
with the exception of the lower elevations across Albany and
Carbon county.

Saturday will be a slight improvement as the upper level
disturbance will push over the area and eventually east. Some
drier air aloft will move into the area but there will still be
plenty of moisture and instability south of the North Platte River
valley. Expect another round of scattered showers and
thunderstorms along and south of the I80 corridor.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 AM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Hot and dry conditions return to the region for the end of the
holiday weekend and into the middle of next week. Weak
west/southwest flow aloft will prevail as main belt of westerlies
is shunted north of the area. Medium range models are consistent
with diurnally driven convective chances in and around the
southeast Wyoming mountains both Sunday and Monday. Do not expect
much coverage given weak progd instability params, but should at a
minimum see afternoon build-ups each day. Otherwise, heights will
be on the rise early next week as four corners high becomes re-
established amplifying the llvl thermal ridge amplifies. These
warmer mid-level temps should keep a lid on convective chances
ovr the plains. H7 temperature progs soar to 16-18C by the middle
of next week. This will easily yield mid/upper 90s ovr lower
elevations of SE Wyoming and the western Nebraska Panhandle. Would
not be at all surprised to see triple digit heat ovr parts of the
western Nebraska Panhandle and North Platte River Valley Tue-Wed.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1244 AM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Area of convection will continue to push southeast out of the
western Nebraska Panhandle thru 08z. Expect conditions to remain
VFR thru much of the morning hours. Aviation conditions will
deteriorate by afternoon as virtually all of the area terminals
will likely see a period of at least MVFR conditions in -TSRA.
Coverage will peak 20-02z and gradually dissipate thereafter.
Expect severe threat to be less than recent days, however can`t
rule out an isolated strong cell. More of a concern will be the
potential for very heavy rain. Of course, this would lower
visibilities in thunderstorms this afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 301 AM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Fire weather concerns will be minimal through early next week as
a wet and cool weather pattern will prevail through this weekend.
There is a good chance for widespread wetting rainfall today
through Friday night across the area. Drier and warmer weather
is expected by early next week and possibly as early as Sunday as
an upper level ridge builds over the central Rockys.

&&

.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...CAH
FIRE WEATHER...TJT




000
FXUS65 KRIW 300821
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
221 AM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...Thursday through Saturday night

Monsoonal moisture is now spreading across the area. Some showers
and isolated thunderstorms continue early this morning across much
of the area although most are of the garden variety and not very
strong. This should be the story for today. With the monsoonal
moisture over the area, there will be a fair amount of mid to high
level clouds around along with the chance of showers at anytime.
This will help to keep temperatures cooler with the lowest high
temperatures we have seen in a while. This will also help limit the
strength of any thunderstorms that develop with the area only under
a general risk of thunder. The models show precipitable water values
climbing to over an inch in many areas so there will be plenty of
moisture to work with so locally heavy rain would be the main threat
from any thunderstorm. By later tonight the deepest moisture should
be pushed to the south and east so there should be a decrease in
activity after midnight tonight.

Starting on Friday there should be a slow decrease in thunderstorm
activity. Precipitable water levels will lower somewhat Friday but
still be in the 0.75 to 1.00 inch range for most areas, enough to
produce more isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms.
With ridging beginning to build back and heights rising,
temperatures will be warmer and any thunderstorms may form later in
the day than on Thursday. Models are zeroing in on the western
mountains and eastern portions of the county warning area with a rip
off zone in the middle. Both the NAM and GFS show this so this
looked reasonable to us. With weak steering winds, showers and
thunderstorms could be slow movers.

Higher heights and even drier air will move into the state for
Saturday, especially in west of the divide where precipitable water
values may develop as low as 0.25 inches. Any thunderstorms on this
day should be confined to the mountains and adjacent foothills with
light steering winds continuing. Temperatures will also continue to
climb, but back to levels near to slightly above normal. So for the
start of the holiday weekend, it looks warm but not hot as a
firecracker.

.LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday

Mean ridge axis moves from the western U.S. to the Southern High
Plains which will allow the Gulf of Alaska upper low to move into
Swrn Canada and the nrn part of the PacNW. Models have generally
trended a little further north with this trough since last night.
Wly flow with embedded weak disturbances starts this period out on
Sunday with threat of at least isold showers and tstms peaking
during the afternoon and evening hours. Flow begins to turn more
sw early next week with a slow drying trend in the atmosphere
leading to less and less storms around. Still can`t rule out isold
storms in and near the mountains but overall most areas will be
dry. The late afternoons and evenings will likely be breezy to
locally windy at times as a few disturbances comes out from our
swrn Canada/PacNW upper low with a couple fronts hanging around MT
and possibly Nrn Wyoming at times. Overall though it just looks
very warm to hot through the period. There could still be one
stronger/further south disturbance impacting the area around
Wednesday night or Thursday but confidence is low tonight based on
the fluctuating model solutions. ECMWF is stronger with this idea
on Thursday with a rather strong front pushing s and sewd across
the area with much cooler air for at least the north. The GFS is
weaker tonight. Forecast is still fairly warm to end the medium
range period and we`ll just look at the trends once again tonight
because it does still look like the mean upper ridge will shift
well ewd into at least the wrn part of the Srn High Plains which
would at least open the door for the current Gulf of Alaska upper
low to move ewd and leave our nwrn/nrn zones open to stronger
shortwaves.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

VFR conditions to prevail through tonight. Isolated showers and
storms through 18z. After 18z new shower and thunderstorm
development will occur over most of the region. Some of the stronger
storms will produce heavy rain, small hail, and wind gusts to 30
kts. Local MVFR conditions will be possible as heavy rain will
reduce visibility. Showers and storms will decrease in coverage by
06z Fri with lingering activity through 12z Fri.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fire danger concerns should decrease today. A plume of monsoonal
moisture moving across the state should result in more cloud cover,
cooler temperatures and relative humidity remaining above critical
thresholds. Wind should be light to moderate outside of any
thunderstorm where erratic winds are possible. Smoke dispersal and
mixing will be generally fair to good.
&&

.RIW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hattings
LONG TERM...PS
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...Hattings




000
FXUS63 KUNR 300810
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
210 AM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today Through Friday Night)
Issued at 204 AM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Northwest upper flow continues over the region, with a ridge over
the Rockies and a trough over the eastern states. Most of the storm
activity associated with a weak upper wave has moved out of the
CWA, but there are There are some showers over parts of
northeastern WY, and newly developed showers over the southern
Hills. Cold front is beginning to move into SD from the north.
Winds are light and variable, and temperatures are in the 50s to
lower 60s.

Light northeasterly winds may result in some fog/low clouds across
northwestern SD this morning, which several models are hinting at.
Brought mention southward to the northeastern foothills for any
upsloping that might occur.

Cool high pressure will slide into the northern plains today, as
cold front stalls across northeastern WY. Pressure gradient will
tighten a bit across the area, and northeasterly winds will become
breezy across the western SD plains. Southeasterly return flow will
develop across southwestern SD into northeastern WY, where some weak
instability will develop. Showers and thunderstorms are expected
across northeastern WY, the Black Hills, and southwestern SD today.
These will be enhanced by another shortwave passing through in the
evening, but the threat for severe weather should stay south of the
CWA where instability is better. Highs will be around 80s, with 70s
in the Black Hills.

Showers/storms may continue across the same areas overnight along
the baroclinic zone, with some weak instability available. Lows will
be generally in the 50s.

Surface high shifts southeastward Friday, and breezy return flow
develops across the CWA. Forecast soundings show fairly moist
profiles and weak instability. Under continued active flow, expect
scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday, gradually decreasing
Friday night. Cool airmass and easterly low-level flow will result
in 70s for highs Friday, with 60s in the Black Hills.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Through Wednesday)
Issued at 204 AM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Upper ridging over northern plains will give way to more of a
zonal flow pattern late in the weekend, then becoming
southwesterly flow aloft early next week as an upper trough moves
into the Pacific Northwest. A shortwave trough will pass to the
south of the area Sat & Sun, with some storms possible, mainly
over southern SD although there might be enough instability in to
produce isolated thunderstorms in a narrow N-S band on either side
of the WY/SD border. As the upper flow transitions to
southwesterly early next week, will continue to see isolated to
scattered thunderstorms as southerly low level flow continues to
advect moisture into the region. Temperatures will be near average
on Saturday, with highs climbing to 10-15 degrees warmer than
average early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued At 204 AM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Lcl IFR conditions in patchy fog are possible over
northwestern South Dakota and along the Spearfish-Sturgis foothills
generally from 10Z-15Z this morning, otherwise VFR conditions will
prevail. Isold-Sct showers and thunderstorms are expected over parts
of northeastern Wyoming, the Black Hills area and southwestern South
Dakota this morning with better chances for thunderstorms over those
same areas this afternoon and tonight.

&&

.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Pojorlie
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...10




000
FXUS63 KUNR 300810
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
210 AM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today Through Friday Night)
Issued at 204 AM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Northwest upper flow continues over the region, with a ridge over
the Rockies and a trough over the eastern states. Most of the storm
activity associated with a weak upper wave has moved out of the
CWA, but there are There are some showers over parts of
northeastern WY, and newly developed showers over the southern
Hills. Cold front is beginning to move into SD from the north.
Winds are light and variable, and temperatures are in the 50s to
lower 60s.

Light northeasterly winds may result in some fog/low clouds across
northwestern SD this morning, which several models are hinting at.
Brought mention southward to the northeastern foothills for any
upsloping that might occur.

Cool high pressure will slide into the northern plains today, as
cold front stalls across northeastern WY. Pressure gradient will
tighten a bit across the area, and northeasterly winds will become
breezy across the western SD plains. Southeasterly return flow will
develop across southwestern SD into northeastern WY, where some weak
instability will develop. Showers and thunderstorms are expected
across northeastern WY, the Black Hills, and southwestern SD today.
These will be enhanced by another shortwave passing through in the
evening, but the threat for severe weather should stay south of the
CWA where instability is better. Highs will be around 80s, with 70s
in the Black Hills.

Showers/storms may continue across the same areas overnight along
the baroclinic zone, with some weak instability available. Lows will
be generally in the 50s.

Surface high shifts southeastward Friday, and breezy return flow
develops across the CWA. Forecast soundings show fairly moist
profiles and weak instability. Under continued active flow, expect
scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday, gradually decreasing
Friday night. Cool airmass and easterly low-level flow will result
in 70s for highs Friday, with 60s in the Black Hills.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Through Wednesday)
Issued at 204 AM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Upper ridging over northern plains will give way to more of a
zonal flow pattern late in the weekend, then becoming
southwesterly flow aloft early next week as an upper trough moves
into the Pacific Northwest. A shortwave trough will pass to the
south of the area Sat & Sun, with some storms possible, mainly
over southern SD although there might be enough instability in to
produce isolated thunderstorms in a narrow N-S band on either side
of the WY/SD border. As the upper flow transitions to
southwesterly early next week, will continue to see isolated to
scattered thunderstorms as southerly low level flow continues to
advect moisture into the region. Temperatures will be near average
on Saturday, with highs climbing to 10-15 degrees warmer than
average early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued At 204 AM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Lcl IFR conditions in patchy fog are possible over
northwestern South Dakota and along the Spearfish-Sturgis foothills
generally from 10Z-15Z this morning, otherwise VFR conditions will
prevail. Isold-Sct showers and thunderstorms are expected over parts
of northeastern Wyoming, the Black Hills area and southwestern South
Dakota this morning with better chances for thunderstorms over those
same areas this afternoon and tonight.

&&

.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Pojorlie
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...10




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities