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000
FXUS65 KRIW 251010
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
310 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

NW FLOW CONTINUES OVR WY WITH RIDGE WEST AND TROF EAST. SMALL SW OVR
WRN MT AND ANOTHER FURTHER UPSTREAM ACROSS SRN BC...BOTH HEADED THIS
WAY. N/S JET ACROSS ERN WY...NOSING INTO THE FRONT RANGE OF CO.
AND...AS ADVERTISED FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...A NEARLY COL OVR THE
EPAC WEST OF BAJA...WHICH STILL LOOKS TO HAVE CONSEQUENCES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WY BY MID WEEK. SFC SHOWS HI P WEST WITH A DECENT
LOWERING P GRAD TO THE EAST...PROVIDING SOME MIXED AREAS WITH GUSTY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SRN FCST ZONES.

BEGINNING OF FCST HAS SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG IN THE USUAL SPOTS.
SOME MODEST MOISTURE STILL HANGING AROUND THE NRN/NWRN CWA WILL
TRANSLATE S AND EAST TODAY. THIS TOGETHER WITH THE DISTURBANCES
MENTIONED ABOVE WILL KEEP SOME LOW END POPS AROUND THE WRN AND NRN
ZONES THRU AT LEAST MID-DAY...WITHOUT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SUBSTANCE.

MONDAY...SKIES CLEAR...INVERSIONS SET BACK IN FOR ANOTHER MORNING
STARTING WITH PATCHY FOG...BUT CLEARING/SUNNY SKIES OTHERWISE...
UNDER AN INCREASING INFLUENCE OF THE WRN RIDGE OF HI P. THIS WILL
VIRTUALLY ELIMINATE NW FLOW BY MON NIGHT. TUE WILL BE ANOTHER SUNNY
DAY ACROSS MOST OF THE FA EXCEPT FOR THE SWRN ZONES WHICH WILL HAVE
INCREASING CLOUDS THRU THE DAY AS THE BAJA COL IS KICKED THIS
DIRECTION. ADDITIONALLY...THRU THE DAY ON TUE...SFC P FIELD WILL
BECOME BETTER SUITED FOR PRODUCING GUSTY SW WIND...WITH ADDITIONAL
HELP IN THIS CASE FROM ALOFT AS UPR RIDGE ORIENTS ITSELF FAR ENOUGH
E TO TO ALLOW NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SW FLOW THRU MID LVLS. THIS
TOGETHER WITH WARMING LL TEMPS...WILL ALLOW MODERATELY STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT TO INCREASE THE SFC WINDS ADIABATICALLY.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...AS THE COL FROM BAJA HEADS THIS
DIRECTION...IT WILL QUICKLY BECOME AN OPEN WAVE BUT STILL BE ABLE TO
BRING SOME MOISTURE WITH IT...BRUSHING THE WRN TO NWRN FCST AREA
THRU THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. AS THIS HAS BEEN FCST FOR SOME TIME
NOW...AND ASSUMING THE UPSTREAM KICKER ARRIVES WITHIN THE CRITICAL
DISTANCE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...POP CHANCES WILL RISE ACCORDINGLY
THRU THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TUE. HOWEVER...THE FLEETING NATURE OF THIS
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LOOKS TO PRECLUDE TOO MUCH QPF OR SNOWFALL
THRU THE END OF THIS FCST PERIOD...REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
FOR THE MOST PART.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
SYNOPSIS...COOLER CONDITIONS WITH SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD EAST OF THE DIVIDE WEDNESDAY.  GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY
MILD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST AREAS THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.  THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
PUSHING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN WYOMING ON FRIDAY BEFORE BEING
SUPPRESSED FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND.


DISCUSSION...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF
BAJA UPPER LOW...PUSHING EAST OUT OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS 12Z-18Z WED...WITH CLIPPER IN NORTHERN STREAM
DIVING SE INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  THE NORTHERN STREAM
CLIPPER WILL DRIVE A CANADIAN COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.  GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW FETCH OF
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE LINGERING OVER AREA BEHIND SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO INTERACT WITH CANADIAN COLD FRONT THROUGH THE DAY.
OVERALL....RAIN AND SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD BE SPOTTY OVER THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE DAY BUT WE COULD SEE MORE ORGANIZED
BANDING ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING IN UNSTABLE NW FLOW...ESPECIALLY
DOWNWIND OF THE OWL CREEK MTNS AND SOUTHERN BIGHORN RANGE.

GFS KEEPS BROAD TROUGH FROM BAJA REGION INTO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...CONTINUING TO FEED SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING.  ECMWF SHOWS SHARPER
DEFORMATION AREA KEEPING THIS MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AS BROAD RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS WYOMING.
FORECAST IS WEIGHTED TOWARD ECMWF`S DRIER SCENARIO.

BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW OVERALL AGREEMENT BRINGING SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME INTO SOUTHERN WYOMING ON FRIDAY WITH BROAD TROUGH
OVER THE SW U.S.  THIS MAY BRING SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS UP TO
AROUND INTERSTATE 80 ON FRIDAY BEFORE UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER BAJA
CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY WITH MOISTURE PLUME GETTING SUPPRESSED
FURTHER SOUTH OF WYOMING OVER THE WEEKEND.    OVERALL MODEL TREND
WITH NORTHERN STREAM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND HAS BEEN TOWARD
BROADER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...THUS KEEPING ARCTIC
INTRUSIONS FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
REGION.  SEASONABLY MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
AREA OVER SUPERBOWL WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE TODAY. SOME SNOW
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS UNTIL 18Z WITH LOCAL
MVFR CONDITIONS. IN THE FAR WEST FROM YELLOWSTONE PARK TO KEMMERER
AREAS OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR UNTIL 19Z. THEN VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE FAR WEST AFTER 19Z. GUSTY WIND WILL
OCCUR AT KRKS AND KCPR AIRPORTS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WITH THE
WIND DECREASING AT KRKS BY 02Z WHILE CONTINUING TO BE WINDY AT KCPR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

FIRE DANGER REMAINS LOW FOR MOST AREAS...WITH RH VALUES REMAINING
ABOVE 50 PERCENT FOR LOCATIONS BELOW 7000 FEET...TO 25 PERCENT OR
LOWER ABOVE TIMBERLINE WHERE ROCKS AND SNOW ABOUND. MIXING/INVERSION
HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE...1000 TO 1500 FEET AT MOST...
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS SOUTH OF A ROCK SPRINGS
TO CASPER LINE. POOR SMOKE DISPERSION IS ALSO FORECAST THROUGH THE SAME
PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED ANYWHERE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN INCREASED MOISTURE FOLLOWING
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE HEADS INTO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAUN
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN









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000
FXUS63 KUNR 250933
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
233 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 227 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL IA WITH HIGH
BUILDING INTO THE CWA FROM MT INTO WY. GRADIENT SLOWLY RELAXING
WITH WINDS EBBING. WATER VAPOUR SHOWED UPPER RIDGE OVER WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA. EVOLUTION OF THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL DRIVE SHORT TERM
WEATHER.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. THERMAL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW
ENHANCES DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL MT INTO CENTRAL NE.
RESULT WILL BE PLEASANT TEMPERATURES TODAY AND DOWNRIGHT WARM
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY. RECORD HIGHS IN JEOPARDY MONDAY GIVEN
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. WEATHER WILL BE DRY EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR A FEW
SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST WY/HIGHER TERRAIN AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH OUT OF MT.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 227 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPS AGAIN ON TUESDAY. THE RIDGE MOVES EAST AND WEAKENS ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A GRADUAL COOL DOWN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK...BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIVERGE SOME TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. THE GFS SHOWS A
MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN THAN THE ECMWF...BUT BOTH HAVE BEEN
TRENDING DRIER. WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. TEMPS SHOULD BE BACK TO MORE SEASONABLE
LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 227 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS CAN GENERALLY BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL SD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS63 KUNR 250933
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
233 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 227 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL IA WITH HIGH
BUILDING INTO THE CWA FROM MT INTO WY. GRADIENT SLOWLY RELAXING
WITH WINDS EBBING. WATER VAPOUR SHOWED UPPER RIDGE OVER WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA. EVOLUTION OF THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL DRIVE SHORT TERM
WEATHER.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. THERMAL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW
ENHANCES DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL MT INTO CENTRAL NE.
RESULT WILL BE PLEASANT TEMPERATURES TODAY AND DOWNRIGHT WARM
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY. RECORD HIGHS IN JEOPARDY MONDAY GIVEN
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. WEATHER WILL BE DRY EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR A FEW
SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST WY/HIGHER TERRAIN AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH OUT OF MT.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 227 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPS AGAIN ON TUESDAY. THE RIDGE MOVES EAST AND WEAKENS ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A GRADUAL COOL DOWN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK...BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIVERGE SOME TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. THE GFS SHOWS A
MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN THAN THE ECMWF...BUT BOTH HAVE BEEN
TRENDING DRIER. WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. TEMPS SHOULD BE BACK TO MORE SEASONABLE
LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 227 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS CAN GENERALLY BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL SD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS63 KUNR 250933
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
233 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 227 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL IA WITH HIGH
BUILDING INTO THE CWA FROM MT INTO WY. GRADIENT SLOWLY RELAXING
WITH WINDS EBBING. WATER VAPOUR SHOWED UPPER RIDGE OVER WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA. EVOLUTION OF THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL DRIVE SHORT TERM
WEATHER.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. THERMAL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW
ENHANCES DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL MT INTO CENTRAL NE.
RESULT WILL BE PLEASANT TEMPERATURES TODAY AND DOWNRIGHT WARM
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY. RECORD HIGHS IN JEOPARDY MONDAY GIVEN
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. WEATHER WILL BE DRY EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR A FEW
SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST WY/HIGHER TERRAIN AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH OUT OF MT.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 227 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPS AGAIN ON TUESDAY. THE RIDGE MOVES EAST AND WEAKENS ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A GRADUAL COOL DOWN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK...BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIVERGE SOME TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. THE GFS SHOWS A
MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN THAN THE ECMWF...BUT BOTH HAVE BEEN
TRENDING DRIER. WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. TEMPS SHOULD BE BACK TO MORE SEASONABLE
LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 227 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS CAN GENERALLY BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL SD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS63 KUNR 250933
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
233 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 227 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL IA WITH HIGH
BUILDING INTO THE CWA FROM MT INTO WY. GRADIENT SLOWLY RELAXING
WITH WINDS EBBING. WATER VAPOUR SHOWED UPPER RIDGE OVER WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA. EVOLUTION OF THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL DRIVE SHORT TERM
WEATHER.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. THERMAL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW
ENHANCES DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL MT INTO CENTRAL NE.
RESULT WILL BE PLEASANT TEMPERATURES TODAY AND DOWNRIGHT WARM
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY. RECORD HIGHS IN JEOPARDY MONDAY GIVEN
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. WEATHER WILL BE DRY EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR A FEW
SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST WY/HIGHER TERRAIN AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH OUT OF MT.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 227 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPS AGAIN ON TUESDAY. THE RIDGE MOVES EAST AND WEAKENS ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A GRADUAL COOL DOWN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK...BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIVERGE SOME TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. THE GFS SHOWS A
MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN THAN THE ECMWF...BUT BOTH HAVE BEEN
TRENDING DRIER. WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. TEMPS SHOULD BE BACK TO MORE SEASONABLE
LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 227 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS CAN GENERALLY BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL SD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26



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000
FXUS65 KCYS 250927 CCA
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
218 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 1257 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

A WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DIVE QUICKLY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WAS RESPONSIBLE
FOR SCATTERED RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WY
AND THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE LAST EVENING. HOWEVER...LATEST TRENDS
IN RADAR/SAT IMAGERY INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED
IN COVERAGE AS OF 08Z OWING TO INCREASING SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING WAVE. WE ARE STILL SEEING A FEW WEAK ECHOS FROM KCYS
ALONG THE WY/NE STATE LINE NEAR SCOTTSBLUFF...BUT POTENTIAL FOR ANY
MEASURABLE PCPN IS UNLIKELY WITH DRYING LOW LEVELS AND LARGER SCALE
SINKING MOTION OVERSPREADING THE AREA. LLVL GRADIENTS STAY ELEVATED
TODAY WITH AROUND 50 METERS BETWEEN CAG-CPR AT H85. FAST NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS WITH A 130 KT H25 JET OVER EASTERN MT/WY...SO
THE WIND PRONE AREAS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE QUITE WINDY. A FEW WYDOT
SENSORS NEAR ARLINGTON HAVE RECORDED WINDS NEAR 50 MPH IN THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT DO NOT EXPECT WARNING CRITERIA GUSTS AS THE
MODELS SUGGEST WEAKENING FLOW ALOFT WITH TIME. A PRETTY UNEVENTFUL
SHORT TERM PERIOD ASIDE FROM BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY. GFS/NAM/ECM
ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BECOMING
ESTABLISHED ON MON/TUE. H7 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND 5-7 DEG C
AT 00Z TUE. NO REAL CONCERNS ABOUT CIRRUS EITHER WITH FAIRLY DRY RH
PROGS BETWEEN H2-H3 PER THE GFS. ADIABATIC WARMING IS LIKELY WITH
GOOD SUBSIDENCE AND WESTERLY LLVL DOWNSLOPE...SO TEND TO FAVOR THE
WARMER MOS WITH HIGHS AROUND 65 F OVER THE PLAINS. COULD SEE A FEW
RECORDS THREATENED EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. PCPN CHANCES WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST ON TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG
SHORTWAVE LIFTING ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

UPPER RIDGE THAT GAVE US THE WARM TEMPERATURES STILL FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH WYOMING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR A RETURN OF COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...GFS 700MB
TEMPERATURES FALL TO -6C...DOWN FROM +4C TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

GOING TO BE WINDY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. GFS 700MB WINDS 45 TO 50KTS...SO LIKELY TO SEE WIND
HEADLINES FOR THE WIND PRONE AREAS. ABOUT .3 TO .4 INCHES QPF FOR
THE MOUNTAINS OUT WEST WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO COULD SEE ADVISORY
LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES.

ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY THAT WILL BRING SOME MORE LIGHT
SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE MOUNTAINS. MOST EVERYWHERE ELSE SHOULD STAY
DRY WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 948 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR PREVAILS...EXCEPT FOR MVFR AT TIMES AT RAWLINS FROM 09Z TO
15Z. GUSTY WINDS THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1257 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOCALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALL PARAMETERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...CLH



000
FXUS65 KCYS 250918
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
218 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 1257 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

A WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DIVE QUICKLY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WAS RESPONSIBLE
FOR SCATTERED RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WY
AND THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE LAST EVENING. HOWEVER...LATEST TRENDS
IN RADAR/SAT IMAGERY INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED
IN COVERAGE AS OF 08Z OWING TO INCREASING SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING WAVE. WE ARE STILL SEEING A FEW WEAK ECHOS FROM KCYS
ALONG THE WY/NE STATE LINE NEAR SCOTTSBLUFF...BUT POTENTIAL FOR ANY
MEASURABLE PCPN IS UNLIKELY WITH DRYING LOW LEVELS AND LARGER SCALE
SINKING MOTION OVERSPREADING THE AREA. LLVL GRADIENTS STAY ELEVATED
TODAY WITH AROUND 50 METERS BETWEEN CAG-CPR AT H85. FAST NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS WITH A 130 KT H25 JET OVER EASTERN MT/WY...SO
THE WIND PRONE AREAS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE QUITE WINDY. A FEW WYDOT
SENSORS NEAR ARLINGTON HAVE RECORDED WINDS NEAR 50 MPH IN THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT DO NOT EXPECT WARNING CRITERIA GUSTS AS THE
MODELS SUGGEST WEAKENING FLOW ALOFT WITH TIME. A PRETTY UNEVENTFUL
SHORT TERM PERIOD ASIDE FROM BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY. GFS/NAM/ECM
ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BECOMING
ESTABLISHED ON MON/TUE. H7 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND 5-7 DEG C
AT 00Z TUE. NO REAL CONCERNS ABOUT CIRRUS EITHER WITH FAIRLY DRY RH
PROGS BETWEEN H2-H3 PER THE GFS. ADIABATIC WARMING IS LIKELY WITH
GOOD SUBSIDENCE AND WESTERLY LLVL DOWNSLOPE...SO TREND TO FAVOR THE
WARMER MOS WITH HIGHS AROUND 65 F OVER THE PLAINS. COULD SEE A FEW
RECORDS THREATENED EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. PCPN CHANCES WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST ON TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG
SHORTWAVE LIFTING ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

UPPER RIDGE THAT GAVE US THE WARM TEMPERATURES STILL FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH WYOMING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR A RETURN OF COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...GFS 700MB
TEMPERATURES FALL TO -6C...DOWN FROM +4C TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

GOING TO BE WINDY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. GFS 700MB WINDS 45 TO 50KTS...SO LIKELY TO SEE WIND
HEADLINES FOR THE WIND PRONE AREAS. ABOUT .3 TO .4 INCHES QPF FOR
THE MOUNTAINS OUT WEST WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO COULD SEE ADVISORY
LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES.

ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY THAT WILL BRING SOME MORE LIGHT
SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE MOUNTAINS. MOST EVERYWHERE ELSE SHOULD STAY
DRY WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 948 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR PREVAILS...EXCEPT FOR MVFR AT TIMES AT RAWLINS FROM 09Z TO
15Z. GUSTY WINDS THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1257 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOCALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALL PARAMETERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...CLH



000
FXUS65 KCYS 250918
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
218 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 1257 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

A WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DIVE QUICKLY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WAS RESPONSIBLE
FOR SCATTERED RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WY
AND THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE LAST EVENING. HOWEVER...LATEST TRENDS
IN RADAR/SAT IMAGERY INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED
IN COVERAGE AS OF 08Z OWING TO INCREASING SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING WAVE. WE ARE STILL SEEING A FEW WEAK ECHOS FROM KCYS
ALONG THE WY/NE STATE LINE NEAR SCOTTSBLUFF...BUT POTENTIAL FOR ANY
MEASURABLE PCPN IS UNLIKELY WITH DRYING LOW LEVELS AND LARGER SCALE
SINKING MOTION OVERSPREADING THE AREA. LLVL GRADIENTS STAY ELEVATED
TODAY WITH AROUND 50 METERS BETWEEN CAG-CPR AT H85. FAST NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS WITH A 130 KT H25 JET OVER EASTERN MT/WY...SO
THE WIND PRONE AREAS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE QUITE WINDY. A FEW WYDOT
SENSORS NEAR ARLINGTON HAVE RECORDED WINDS NEAR 50 MPH IN THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT DO NOT EXPECT WARNING CRITERIA GUSTS AS THE
MODELS SUGGEST WEAKENING FLOW ALOFT WITH TIME. A PRETTY UNEVENTFUL
SHORT TERM PERIOD ASIDE FROM BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY. GFS/NAM/ECM
ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BECOMING
ESTABLISHED ON MON/TUE. H7 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND 5-7 DEG C
AT 00Z TUE. NO REAL CONCERNS ABOUT CIRRUS EITHER WITH FAIRLY DRY RH
PROGS BETWEEN H2-H3 PER THE GFS. ADIABATIC WARMING IS LIKELY WITH
GOOD SUBSIDENCE AND WESTERLY LLVL DOWNSLOPE...SO TREND TO FAVOR THE
WARMER MOS WITH HIGHS AROUND 65 F OVER THE PLAINS. COULD SEE A FEW
RECORDS THREATENED EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. PCPN CHANCES WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST ON TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG
SHORTWAVE LIFTING ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

UPPER RIDGE THAT GAVE US THE WARM TEMPERATURES STILL FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH WYOMING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR A RETURN OF COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...GFS 700MB
TEMPERATURES FALL TO -6C...DOWN FROM +4C TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

GOING TO BE WINDY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. GFS 700MB WINDS 45 TO 50KTS...SO LIKELY TO SEE WIND
HEADLINES FOR THE WIND PRONE AREAS. ABOUT .3 TO .4 INCHES QPF FOR
THE MOUNTAINS OUT WEST WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO COULD SEE ADVISORY
LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES.

ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY THAT WILL BRING SOME MORE LIGHT
SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE MOUNTAINS. MOST EVERYWHERE ELSE SHOULD STAY
DRY WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 948 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR PREVAILS...EXCEPT FOR MVFR AT TIMES AT RAWLINS FROM 09Z TO
15Z. GUSTY WINDS THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1257 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOCALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALL PARAMETERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...CLH



000
FXUS65 KCYS 250918
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
218 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 1257 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

A WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DIVE QUICKLY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WAS RESPONSIBLE
FOR SCATTERED RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WY
AND THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE LAST EVENING. HOWEVER...LATEST TRENDS
IN RADAR/SAT IMAGERY INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED
IN COVERAGE AS OF 08Z OWING TO INCREASING SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING WAVE. WE ARE STILL SEEING A FEW WEAK ECHOS FROM KCYS
ALONG THE WY/NE STATE LINE NEAR SCOTTSBLUFF...BUT POTENTIAL FOR ANY
MEASURABLE PCPN IS UNLIKELY WITH DRYING LOW LEVELS AND LARGER SCALE
SINKING MOTION OVERSPREADING THE AREA. LLVL GRADIENTS STAY ELEVATED
TODAY WITH AROUND 50 METERS BETWEEN CAG-CPR AT H85. FAST NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS WITH A 130 KT H25 JET OVER EASTERN MT/WY...SO
THE WIND PRONE AREAS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE QUITE WINDY. A FEW WYDOT
SENSORS NEAR ARLINGTON HAVE RECORDED WINDS NEAR 50 MPH IN THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT DO NOT EXPECT WARNING CRITERIA GUSTS AS THE
MODELS SUGGEST WEAKENING FLOW ALOFT WITH TIME. A PRETTY UNEVENTFUL
SHORT TERM PERIOD ASIDE FROM BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY. GFS/NAM/ECM
ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BECOMING
ESTABLISHED ON MON/TUE. H7 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND 5-7 DEG C
AT 00Z TUE. NO REAL CONCERNS ABOUT CIRRUS EITHER WITH FAIRLY DRY RH
PROGS BETWEEN H2-H3 PER THE GFS. ADIABATIC WARMING IS LIKELY WITH
GOOD SUBSIDENCE AND WESTERLY LLVL DOWNSLOPE...SO TREND TO FAVOR THE
WARMER MOS WITH HIGHS AROUND 65 F OVER THE PLAINS. COULD SEE A FEW
RECORDS THREATENED EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. PCPN CHANCES WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST ON TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG
SHORTWAVE LIFTING ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

UPPER RIDGE THAT GAVE US THE WARM TEMPERATURES STILL FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH WYOMING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR A RETURN OF COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...GFS 700MB
TEMPERATURES FALL TO -6C...DOWN FROM +4C TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

GOING TO BE WINDY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. GFS 700MB WINDS 45 TO 50KTS...SO LIKELY TO SEE WIND
HEADLINES FOR THE WIND PRONE AREAS. ABOUT .3 TO .4 INCHES QPF FOR
THE MOUNTAINS OUT WEST WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO COULD SEE ADVISORY
LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES.

ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY THAT WILL BRING SOME MORE LIGHT
SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE MOUNTAINS. MOST EVERYWHERE ELSE SHOULD STAY
DRY WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 948 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR PREVAILS...EXCEPT FOR MVFR AT TIMES AT RAWLINS FROM 09Z TO
15Z. GUSTY WINDS THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1257 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOCALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALL PARAMETERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...CLH



000
FXUS65 KCYS 250918
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
218 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 1257 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

A WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DIVE QUICKLY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WAS RESPONSIBLE
FOR SCATTERED RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WY
AND THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE LAST EVENING. HOWEVER...LATEST TRENDS
IN RADAR/SAT IMAGERY INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED
IN COVERAGE AS OF 08Z OWING TO INCREASING SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING WAVE. WE ARE STILL SEEING A FEW WEAK ECHOS FROM KCYS
ALONG THE WY/NE STATE LINE NEAR SCOTTSBLUFF...BUT POTENTIAL FOR ANY
MEASURABLE PCPN IS UNLIKELY WITH DRYING LOW LEVELS AND LARGER SCALE
SINKING MOTION OVERSPREADING THE AREA. LLVL GRADIENTS STAY ELEVATED
TODAY WITH AROUND 50 METERS BETWEEN CAG-CPR AT H85. FAST NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS WITH A 130 KT H25 JET OVER EASTERN MT/WY...SO
THE WIND PRONE AREAS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE QUITE WINDY. A FEW WYDOT
SENSORS NEAR ARLINGTON HAVE RECORDED WINDS NEAR 50 MPH IN THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT DO NOT EXPECT WARNING CRITERIA GUSTS AS THE
MODELS SUGGEST WEAKENING FLOW ALOFT WITH TIME. A PRETTY UNEVENTFUL
SHORT TERM PERIOD ASIDE FROM BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY. GFS/NAM/ECM
ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BECOMING
ESTABLISHED ON MON/TUE. H7 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND 5-7 DEG C
AT 00Z TUE. NO REAL CONCERNS ABOUT CIRRUS EITHER WITH FAIRLY DRY RH
PROGS BETWEEN H2-H3 PER THE GFS. ADIABATIC WARMING IS LIKELY WITH
GOOD SUBSIDENCE AND WESTERLY LLVL DOWNSLOPE...SO TREND TO FAVOR THE
WARMER MOS WITH HIGHS AROUND 65 F OVER THE PLAINS. COULD SEE A FEW
RECORDS THREATENED EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. PCPN CHANCES WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST ON TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG
SHORTWAVE LIFTING ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

UPPER RIDGE THAT GAVE US THE WARM TEMPERATURES STILL FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH WYOMING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR A RETURN OF COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...GFS 700MB
TEMPERATURES FALL TO -6C...DOWN FROM +4C TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

GOING TO BE WINDY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. GFS 700MB WINDS 45 TO 50KTS...SO LIKELY TO SEE WIND
HEADLINES FOR THE WIND PRONE AREAS. ABOUT .3 TO .4 INCHES QPF FOR
THE MOUNTAINS OUT WEST WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO COULD SEE ADVISORY
LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES.

ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY THAT WILL BRING SOME MORE LIGHT
SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE MOUNTAINS. MOST EVERYWHERE ELSE SHOULD STAY
DRY WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 948 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR PREVAILS...EXCEPT FOR MVFR AT TIMES AT RAWLINS FROM 09Z TO
15Z. GUSTY WINDS THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1257 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOCALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALL PARAMETERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...CLH



000
FXUS65 KRIW 250528
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1028 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY (ISSUED AT 147 PM MST)

ACTIVE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SWRN ND ATTM WITH CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS BUILDING AS FAR WEST AS NERN JOHNSON COUNTY. LIGHT WARM
ADVECTION PCPN IF FURTHER WEST FROM ABOUT THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS
WWD TO THE TETONS. POWDER RIVER PASS HAS SEEN SOME PRETTY DECENT
SNOW AT TIMES TODAY AS HAS HIGHWAY 14. THE POWDER RIVER SNOTEL
REPORTED A 4 INCH SNOW DEPTH INCREASE THIS MORNING. LIGHTER SNOWS
HAVE FALLEN FURTHER WEST. LIGHT MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS HAVE FALLEN
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH...MAINLY IN JOHNSON COUNTY A
COUPLE TIMES TODAY. PROBABLY THE MOST INTERESTING WEATHER TODAY IN
CENTRAL WYOMING HAS BEEN WATCHING THE STRONG NW WIND SLOWLY EDGING
TOWARDS THE CENTER OF THE WIND RIVER BASIN TODAY. WINDS HAVE GUSTED
OVER 35 MPH AT OUR OFFICE AND AROUND 30 MPH SO FAR AT THE KRIW
AIRPORT. TEMPS POPPED UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S ONCE THE WINDS
HIT. INVERSION WAS DECENT THIS MORNING BUT IT DIDN`T MATTER TODAY.
SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS
WITH A FEW LIGHT MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES EAST OF THE DIVIDE
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. CLOUD COVER IS A LITTLE TRICKY WITH ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE INTO THE NIGHT WITH THICKER CLOUDS POTENTIALLY THINNING THIS
EVENING. CENTRAL AND PARTS OF THE SWRN SECTIONS MAY HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING THIS EVENING WITH A LITTLE MORE
SPILLOVER TRYING TO WORK SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING. LOOKS THINNER RIGHT
NOW THAN TODAY`S ACTION. AFTER A LITTLE COLD AIR ADVECTION
TODAY...WE`LL RETURN TO WARMING IN THE MID LEVELS ON SUNDAY. SOME
LEE TROUGHING REDEVELOPING AFTER A LITTLE LULL THIS WILL KEEP WINDS
GOING THROUGH SUNDAY IN ABOUT THE SAME AREAS. THE CLARK HIGHWAY 120
SENSOR HIT 60 MPH+ A COUPLE TIMES THIS MORNING PEAKING OUT AT 68
MPH. EVEN THE SHERIFF`S OFFICE IN CODY HIT 46 MPH THIS MORNING.
BASINS AND VALLEYS WILL REMAIN AT LEAST PARTIALLY TRAPPED
TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM IS FAIRLY QUIET. ANY SHOWERS FROM
THE LAST OF THE SHORTWAVES SHOULD BE ENDING BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND WITH
RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA EXPECT MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS. THE
MAIN CONCERN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR INVERSIONS TO THROW A MONKEY WRENCH
INTO THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR THE BASINS AND VALLEYS. THE
CONDITIONS FOR FOG LOOK TO BE DECENT WITH A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT
WINDS. IT MAY NOT BE A THICK AS SOME OF THE FOG EARLIER THIS
MONTH...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE SINCE SNOW COVER IS MUCH LESS
WITH A LOT OF BARE SPOTS APPEARING. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE SOME
AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD IT HANDLED WELL SO WE MADE FEW
CHANGES. AS FOR INVERSIONS...THERE ARE THE SAME CONCERNS. WITH GOOD
SNOWPACK WEST OF THE DIVIDE...INVERSIONS SEEM FAIRLY LIKELY THERE.
EAST OF THE DIVIDE...MAYBE NOT QUITE AS CERTAIN SINCE THE
AFOREMENTIONED LACK OF FRESH SNOW COULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND ALBEDO A BIT. FOR NOW...WE KEPT THE TEMPERATURES COOLER WITH THE
THINKING THAT IF IT GETS WARMER...MOST PEOPLE WILL BE HAPPY. THE
AREAS THAT DO MIX WELL...AKA CODY...CASPER...BUFFALO...COULD GET
QUITE WARM. THE NAM MOS HIGH FOR BUFFALO ON MONDAY IS 73!  THIS IS
PROBABLY OVERDONE BUT WE DID PUT SOME 60S IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE WEST LATER ON
TUESDAY...THIS ONE COMING UP FROM THE BAJA AND FROM THE SOUTH. THE
MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES ON TIMING WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST. THE
NEW EUROPEAN HAS TRENDED A BIT SLOWER AND FURTHER WEST. FOR NOW...WE
HAVE COMPROMISED. WE REMOVED POPS FOR THE MORNING AND HAVE ONLY
SLIGHT POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHWEST. AND EVEN HERE...THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION...AND WE SAID PRECIPITATION NOT SNOW...WOULD BE
TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WEST. AT THIS POINT...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
A MAJOR STORM. THE SOUTHERN ORIGIN KEEPS THE SYSTEM FROM HAVING A
LOT OF MOISTURE. IN ADDITION...WARMER AIR WOULD KEEP SNOW LEVELS
HIGHER. THE EUROPEAN HAS MORE PRECIPITATION THAN THE GFS AT THIS
POINT. STILL...MORE TIME TO WATCH IT. THE SYSTEM THEN SHIFTS EAST
ACROSS THE STATE. THIS DIRECTION IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR A LOT OF
PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE DIVIDE. FOR NOW...WE HAVE SLIGHT POPS IN
FOR MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH MORE
CLOUD COVER BUT STILL WARM FOR JANUARY. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
MAINLY RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AS WELL. BY THURSDAY...THE
SYSTEM WILL BE GONE AND REPLACED WITH DRY...NORTHWEST FLOW FOR
THURSDAY.

THE MODELS THEN BECOME DIAMETRICALLY OPPOSED FOR FRIDAY. THE GFS AND
EUROPEAN HAVE A SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE OTHER INGREDIENT IS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER DROPPING
SOUTHWARD. THE GFS HAS SHIFTED FURTHER WEST OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
AND ACTUALLY HAS A DECENT SWATH OF PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE
STATE FOR FRIDAY WITH AN ARCTIC AIR MAS DROPPING EAST OF THE
ROCKIES. MEANWHILE...THE EUROPEAN KEEPS THE CLIPPER FURTHER EAST
WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE EUROPEAN
HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT SO FOR NOW WE WILL ADD SOME SLIGHT POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH ONLY.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
UNTIL 17Z. IN THE FAR WEST FROM YELLOWSTONE PARK TO KEMMERER AREAS
OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR UNTIL 19Z. THEN VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE FAR WEST AFTER 19Z. GUSTY WIND WILL OCCUR AT
KRKS AND KCPR AIRPORTS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH PRESSURE LOOMS TO THE WEST WHILE ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM RIPPLES
AROUND THE HIGH TODAY. IT WILL HAVE MINOR IMPACT ON THE AREA WITH
SOME INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME BREEZES IN MOST AREAS...WITH STRONG
WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE BUFFALO AREA. THE MOUNTAINS MAY SEE SOME SNOW
WITH A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN THE LOW
ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN CODY DISPATCH AND CASPER DISPATCH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND
EXPECTED TO LAST INTO NEXT WEEK. WE STILL CAN NOT GET MIXING HEIGHTS
UP TOO MUCH...ESPECIALLY IN LESS WIND PRONE AREAS. HOWEVER THERE
WILL BE SOME HIGH END POOR TO FAIR SMOKE DISPERSAL POSSIBLE
TODAY...EVEN IN THE LESS WINDY AREAS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PS
LONG TERM...HATTINGS
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...PS







000
FXUS65 KRIW 250528
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1028 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY (ISSUED AT 147 PM MST)

ACTIVE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SWRN ND ATTM WITH CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS BUILDING AS FAR WEST AS NERN JOHNSON COUNTY. LIGHT WARM
ADVECTION PCPN IF FURTHER WEST FROM ABOUT THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS
WWD TO THE TETONS. POWDER RIVER PASS HAS SEEN SOME PRETTY DECENT
SNOW AT TIMES TODAY AS HAS HIGHWAY 14. THE POWDER RIVER SNOTEL
REPORTED A 4 INCH SNOW DEPTH INCREASE THIS MORNING. LIGHTER SNOWS
HAVE FALLEN FURTHER WEST. LIGHT MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS HAVE FALLEN
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH...MAINLY IN JOHNSON COUNTY A
COUPLE TIMES TODAY. PROBABLY THE MOST INTERESTING WEATHER TODAY IN
CENTRAL WYOMING HAS BEEN WATCHING THE STRONG NW WIND SLOWLY EDGING
TOWARDS THE CENTER OF THE WIND RIVER BASIN TODAY. WINDS HAVE GUSTED
OVER 35 MPH AT OUR OFFICE AND AROUND 30 MPH SO FAR AT THE KRIW
AIRPORT. TEMPS POPPED UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S ONCE THE WINDS
HIT. INVERSION WAS DECENT THIS MORNING BUT IT DIDN`T MATTER TODAY.
SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS
WITH A FEW LIGHT MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES EAST OF THE DIVIDE
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. CLOUD COVER IS A LITTLE TRICKY WITH ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE INTO THE NIGHT WITH THICKER CLOUDS POTENTIALLY THINNING THIS
EVENING. CENTRAL AND PARTS OF THE SWRN SECTIONS MAY HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING THIS EVENING WITH A LITTLE MORE
SPILLOVER TRYING TO WORK SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING. LOOKS THINNER RIGHT
NOW THAN TODAY`S ACTION. AFTER A LITTLE COLD AIR ADVECTION
TODAY...WE`LL RETURN TO WARMING IN THE MID LEVELS ON SUNDAY. SOME
LEE TROUGHING REDEVELOPING AFTER A LITTLE LULL THIS WILL KEEP WINDS
GOING THROUGH SUNDAY IN ABOUT THE SAME AREAS. THE CLARK HIGHWAY 120
SENSOR HIT 60 MPH+ A COUPLE TIMES THIS MORNING PEAKING OUT AT 68
MPH. EVEN THE SHERIFF`S OFFICE IN CODY HIT 46 MPH THIS MORNING.
BASINS AND VALLEYS WILL REMAIN AT LEAST PARTIALLY TRAPPED
TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM IS FAIRLY QUIET. ANY SHOWERS FROM
THE LAST OF THE SHORTWAVES SHOULD BE ENDING BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND WITH
RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA EXPECT MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS. THE
MAIN CONCERN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR INVERSIONS TO THROW A MONKEY WRENCH
INTO THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR THE BASINS AND VALLEYS. THE
CONDITIONS FOR FOG LOOK TO BE DECENT WITH A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT
WINDS. IT MAY NOT BE A THICK AS SOME OF THE FOG EARLIER THIS
MONTH...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE SINCE SNOW COVER IS MUCH LESS
WITH A LOT OF BARE SPOTS APPEARING. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE SOME
AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD IT HANDLED WELL SO WE MADE FEW
CHANGES. AS FOR INVERSIONS...THERE ARE THE SAME CONCERNS. WITH GOOD
SNOWPACK WEST OF THE DIVIDE...INVERSIONS SEEM FAIRLY LIKELY THERE.
EAST OF THE DIVIDE...MAYBE NOT QUITE AS CERTAIN SINCE THE
AFOREMENTIONED LACK OF FRESH SNOW COULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND ALBEDO A BIT. FOR NOW...WE KEPT THE TEMPERATURES COOLER WITH THE
THINKING THAT IF IT GETS WARMER...MOST PEOPLE WILL BE HAPPY. THE
AREAS THAT DO MIX WELL...AKA CODY...CASPER...BUFFALO...COULD GET
QUITE WARM. THE NAM MOS HIGH FOR BUFFALO ON MONDAY IS 73!  THIS IS
PROBABLY OVERDONE BUT WE DID PUT SOME 60S IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE WEST LATER ON
TUESDAY...THIS ONE COMING UP FROM THE BAJA AND FROM THE SOUTH. THE
MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES ON TIMING WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST. THE
NEW EUROPEAN HAS TRENDED A BIT SLOWER AND FURTHER WEST. FOR NOW...WE
HAVE COMPROMISED. WE REMOVED POPS FOR THE MORNING AND HAVE ONLY
SLIGHT POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHWEST. AND EVEN HERE...THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION...AND WE SAID PRECIPITATION NOT SNOW...WOULD BE
TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WEST. AT THIS POINT...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
A MAJOR STORM. THE SOUTHERN ORIGIN KEEPS THE SYSTEM FROM HAVING A
LOT OF MOISTURE. IN ADDITION...WARMER AIR WOULD KEEP SNOW LEVELS
HIGHER. THE EUROPEAN HAS MORE PRECIPITATION THAN THE GFS AT THIS
POINT. STILL...MORE TIME TO WATCH IT. THE SYSTEM THEN SHIFTS EAST
ACROSS THE STATE. THIS DIRECTION IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR A LOT OF
PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE DIVIDE. FOR NOW...WE HAVE SLIGHT POPS IN
FOR MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH MORE
CLOUD COVER BUT STILL WARM FOR JANUARY. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
MAINLY RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AS WELL. BY THURSDAY...THE
SYSTEM WILL BE GONE AND REPLACED WITH DRY...NORTHWEST FLOW FOR
THURSDAY.

THE MODELS THEN BECOME DIAMETRICALLY OPPOSED FOR FRIDAY. THE GFS AND
EUROPEAN HAVE A SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE OTHER INGREDIENT IS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER DROPPING
SOUTHWARD. THE GFS HAS SHIFTED FURTHER WEST OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
AND ACTUALLY HAS A DECENT SWATH OF PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE
STATE FOR FRIDAY WITH AN ARCTIC AIR MAS DROPPING EAST OF THE
ROCKIES. MEANWHILE...THE EUROPEAN KEEPS THE CLIPPER FURTHER EAST
WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE EUROPEAN
HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT SO FOR NOW WE WILL ADD SOME SLIGHT POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH ONLY.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
UNTIL 17Z. IN THE FAR WEST FROM YELLOWSTONE PARK TO KEMMERER AREAS
OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR UNTIL 19Z. THEN VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE FAR WEST AFTER 19Z. GUSTY WIND WILL OCCUR AT
KRKS AND KCPR AIRPORTS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH PRESSURE LOOMS TO THE WEST WHILE ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM RIPPLES
AROUND THE HIGH TODAY. IT WILL HAVE MINOR IMPACT ON THE AREA WITH
SOME INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME BREEZES IN MOST AREAS...WITH STRONG
WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE BUFFALO AREA. THE MOUNTAINS MAY SEE SOME SNOW
WITH A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN THE LOW
ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN CODY DISPATCH AND CASPER DISPATCH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND
EXPECTED TO LAST INTO NEXT WEEK. WE STILL CAN NOT GET MIXING HEIGHTS
UP TOO MUCH...ESPECIALLY IN LESS WIND PRONE AREAS. HOWEVER THERE
WILL BE SOME HIGH END POOR TO FAIR SMOKE DISPERSAL POSSIBLE
TODAY...EVEN IN THE LESS WINDY AREAS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PS
LONG TERM...HATTINGS
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...PS







000
FXUS65 KRIW 250528
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1028 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY (ISSUED AT 147 PM MST)

ACTIVE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SWRN ND ATTM WITH CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS BUILDING AS FAR WEST AS NERN JOHNSON COUNTY. LIGHT WARM
ADVECTION PCPN IF FURTHER WEST FROM ABOUT THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS
WWD TO THE TETONS. POWDER RIVER PASS HAS SEEN SOME PRETTY DECENT
SNOW AT TIMES TODAY AS HAS HIGHWAY 14. THE POWDER RIVER SNOTEL
REPORTED A 4 INCH SNOW DEPTH INCREASE THIS MORNING. LIGHTER SNOWS
HAVE FALLEN FURTHER WEST. LIGHT MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS HAVE FALLEN
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH...MAINLY IN JOHNSON COUNTY A
COUPLE TIMES TODAY. PROBABLY THE MOST INTERESTING WEATHER TODAY IN
CENTRAL WYOMING HAS BEEN WATCHING THE STRONG NW WIND SLOWLY EDGING
TOWARDS THE CENTER OF THE WIND RIVER BASIN TODAY. WINDS HAVE GUSTED
OVER 35 MPH AT OUR OFFICE AND AROUND 30 MPH SO FAR AT THE KRIW
AIRPORT. TEMPS POPPED UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S ONCE THE WINDS
HIT. INVERSION WAS DECENT THIS MORNING BUT IT DIDN`T MATTER TODAY.
SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS
WITH A FEW LIGHT MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES EAST OF THE DIVIDE
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. CLOUD COVER IS A LITTLE TRICKY WITH ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE INTO THE NIGHT WITH THICKER CLOUDS POTENTIALLY THINNING THIS
EVENING. CENTRAL AND PARTS OF THE SWRN SECTIONS MAY HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING THIS EVENING WITH A LITTLE MORE
SPILLOVER TRYING TO WORK SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING. LOOKS THINNER RIGHT
NOW THAN TODAY`S ACTION. AFTER A LITTLE COLD AIR ADVECTION
TODAY...WE`LL RETURN TO WARMING IN THE MID LEVELS ON SUNDAY. SOME
LEE TROUGHING REDEVELOPING AFTER A LITTLE LULL THIS WILL KEEP WINDS
GOING THROUGH SUNDAY IN ABOUT THE SAME AREAS. THE CLARK HIGHWAY 120
SENSOR HIT 60 MPH+ A COUPLE TIMES THIS MORNING PEAKING OUT AT 68
MPH. EVEN THE SHERIFF`S OFFICE IN CODY HIT 46 MPH THIS MORNING.
BASINS AND VALLEYS WILL REMAIN AT LEAST PARTIALLY TRAPPED
TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM IS FAIRLY QUIET. ANY SHOWERS FROM
THE LAST OF THE SHORTWAVES SHOULD BE ENDING BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND WITH
RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA EXPECT MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS. THE
MAIN CONCERN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR INVERSIONS TO THROW A MONKEY WRENCH
INTO THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR THE BASINS AND VALLEYS. THE
CONDITIONS FOR FOG LOOK TO BE DECENT WITH A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT
WINDS. IT MAY NOT BE A THICK AS SOME OF THE FOG EARLIER THIS
MONTH...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE SINCE SNOW COVER IS MUCH LESS
WITH A LOT OF BARE SPOTS APPEARING. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE SOME
AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD IT HANDLED WELL SO WE MADE FEW
CHANGES. AS FOR INVERSIONS...THERE ARE THE SAME CONCERNS. WITH GOOD
SNOWPACK WEST OF THE DIVIDE...INVERSIONS SEEM FAIRLY LIKELY THERE.
EAST OF THE DIVIDE...MAYBE NOT QUITE AS CERTAIN SINCE THE
AFOREMENTIONED LACK OF FRESH SNOW COULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND ALBEDO A BIT. FOR NOW...WE KEPT THE TEMPERATURES COOLER WITH THE
THINKING THAT IF IT GETS WARMER...MOST PEOPLE WILL BE HAPPY. THE
AREAS THAT DO MIX WELL...AKA CODY...CASPER...BUFFALO...COULD GET
QUITE WARM. THE NAM MOS HIGH FOR BUFFALO ON MONDAY IS 73!  THIS IS
PROBABLY OVERDONE BUT WE DID PUT SOME 60S IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE WEST LATER ON
TUESDAY...THIS ONE COMING UP FROM THE BAJA AND FROM THE SOUTH. THE
MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES ON TIMING WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST. THE
NEW EUROPEAN HAS TRENDED A BIT SLOWER AND FURTHER WEST. FOR NOW...WE
HAVE COMPROMISED. WE REMOVED POPS FOR THE MORNING AND HAVE ONLY
SLIGHT POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHWEST. AND EVEN HERE...THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION...AND WE SAID PRECIPITATION NOT SNOW...WOULD BE
TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WEST. AT THIS POINT...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
A MAJOR STORM. THE SOUTHERN ORIGIN KEEPS THE SYSTEM FROM HAVING A
LOT OF MOISTURE. IN ADDITION...WARMER AIR WOULD KEEP SNOW LEVELS
HIGHER. THE EUROPEAN HAS MORE PRECIPITATION THAN THE GFS AT THIS
POINT. STILL...MORE TIME TO WATCH IT. THE SYSTEM THEN SHIFTS EAST
ACROSS THE STATE. THIS DIRECTION IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR A LOT OF
PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE DIVIDE. FOR NOW...WE HAVE SLIGHT POPS IN
FOR MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH MORE
CLOUD COVER BUT STILL WARM FOR JANUARY. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
MAINLY RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AS WELL. BY THURSDAY...THE
SYSTEM WILL BE GONE AND REPLACED WITH DRY...NORTHWEST FLOW FOR
THURSDAY.

THE MODELS THEN BECOME DIAMETRICALLY OPPOSED FOR FRIDAY. THE GFS AND
EUROPEAN HAVE A SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE OTHER INGREDIENT IS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER DROPPING
SOUTHWARD. THE GFS HAS SHIFTED FURTHER WEST OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
AND ACTUALLY HAS A DECENT SWATH OF PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE
STATE FOR FRIDAY WITH AN ARCTIC AIR MAS DROPPING EAST OF THE
ROCKIES. MEANWHILE...THE EUROPEAN KEEPS THE CLIPPER FURTHER EAST
WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE EUROPEAN
HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT SO FOR NOW WE WILL ADD SOME SLIGHT POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH ONLY.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
UNTIL 17Z. IN THE FAR WEST FROM YELLOWSTONE PARK TO KEMMERER AREAS
OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR UNTIL 19Z. THEN VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE FAR WEST AFTER 19Z. GUSTY WIND WILL OCCUR AT
KRKS AND KCPR AIRPORTS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH PRESSURE LOOMS TO THE WEST WHILE ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM RIPPLES
AROUND THE HIGH TODAY. IT WILL HAVE MINOR IMPACT ON THE AREA WITH
SOME INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME BREEZES IN MOST AREAS...WITH STRONG
WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE BUFFALO AREA. THE MOUNTAINS MAY SEE SOME SNOW
WITH A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN THE LOW
ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN CODY DISPATCH AND CASPER DISPATCH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND
EXPECTED TO LAST INTO NEXT WEEK. WE STILL CAN NOT GET MIXING HEIGHTS
UP TOO MUCH...ESPECIALLY IN LESS WIND PRONE AREAS. HOWEVER THERE
WILL BE SOME HIGH END POOR TO FAIR SMOKE DISPERSAL POSSIBLE
TODAY...EVEN IN THE LESS WINDY AREAS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PS
LONG TERM...HATTINGS
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...PS







000
FXUS65 KRIW 250528
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1028 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY (ISSUED AT 147 PM MST)

ACTIVE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SWRN ND ATTM WITH CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS BUILDING AS FAR WEST AS NERN JOHNSON COUNTY. LIGHT WARM
ADVECTION PCPN IF FURTHER WEST FROM ABOUT THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS
WWD TO THE TETONS. POWDER RIVER PASS HAS SEEN SOME PRETTY DECENT
SNOW AT TIMES TODAY AS HAS HIGHWAY 14. THE POWDER RIVER SNOTEL
REPORTED A 4 INCH SNOW DEPTH INCREASE THIS MORNING. LIGHTER SNOWS
HAVE FALLEN FURTHER WEST. LIGHT MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS HAVE FALLEN
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH...MAINLY IN JOHNSON COUNTY A
COUPLE TIMES TODAY. PROBABLY THE MOST INTERESTING WEATHER TODAY IN
CENTRAL WYOMING HAS BEEN WATCHING THE STRONG NW WIND SLOWLY EDGING
TOWARDS THE CENTER OF THE WIND RIVER BASIN TODAY. WINDS HAVE GUSTED
OVER 35 MPH AT OUR OFFICE AND AROUND 30 MPH SO FAR AT THE KRIW
AIRPORT. TEMPS POPPED UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S ONCE THE WINDS
HIT. INVERSION WAS DECENT THIS MORNING BUT IT DIDN`T MATTER TODAY.
SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS
WITH A FEW LIGHT MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES EAST OF THE DIVIDE
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. CLOUD COVER IS A LITTLE TRICKY WITH ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE INTO THE NIGHT WITH THICKER CLOUDS POTENTIALLY THINNING THIS
EVENING. CENTRAL AND PARTS OF THE SWRN SECTIONS MAY HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING THIS EVENING WITH A LITTLE MORE
SPILLOVER TRYING TO WORK SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING. LOOKS THINNER RIGHT
NOW THAN TODAY`S ACTION. AFTER A LITTLE COLD AIR ADVECTION
TODAY...WE`LL RETURN TO WARMING IN THE MID LEVELS ON SUNDAY. SOME
LEE TROUGHING REDEVELOPING AFTER A LITTLE LULL THIS WILL KEEP WINDS
GOING THROUGH SUNDAY IN ABOUT THE SAME AREAS. THE CLARK HIGHWAY 120
SENSOR HIT 60 MPH+ A COUPLE TIMES THIS MORNING PEAKING OUT AT 68
MPH. EVEN THE SHERIFF`S OFFICE IN CODY HIT 46 MPH THIS MORNING.
BASINS AND VALLEYS WILL REMAIN AT LEAST PARTIALLY TRAPPED
TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM IS FAIRLY QUIET. ANY SHOWERS FROM
THE LAST OF THE SHORTWAVES SHOULD BE ENDING BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND WITH
RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA EXPECT MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS. THE
MAIN CONCERN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR INVERSIONS TO THROW A MONKEY WRENCH
INTO THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR THE BASINS AND VALLEYS. THE
CONDITIONS FOR FOG LOOK TO BE DECENT WITH A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT
WINDS. IT MAY NOT BE A THICK AS SOME OF THE FOG EARLIER THIS
MONTH...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE SINCE SNOW COVER IS MUCH LESS
WITH A LOT OF BARE SPOTS APPEARING. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE SOME
AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD IT HANDLED WELL SO WE MADE FEW
CHANGES. AS FOR INVERSIONS...THERE ARE THE SAME CONCERNS. WITH GOOD
SNOWPACK WEST OF THE DIVIDE...INVERSIONS SEEM FAIRLY LIKELY THERE.
EAST OF THE DIVIDE...MAYBE NOT QUITE AS CERTAIN SINCE THE
AFOREMENTIONED LACK OF FRESH SNOW COULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND ALBEDO A BIT. FOR NOW...WE KEPT THE TEMPERATURES COOLER WITH THE
THINKING THAT IF IT GETS WARMER...MOST PEOPLE WILL BE HAPPY. THE
AREAS THAT DO MIX WELL...AKA CODY...CASPER...BUFFALO...COULD GET
QUITE WARM. THE NAM MOS HIGH FOR BUFFALO ON MONDAY IS 73!  THIS IS
PROBABLY OVERDONE BUT WE DID PUT SOME 60S IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE WEST LATER ON
TUESDAY...THIS ONE COMING UP FROM THE BAJA AND FROM THE SOUTH. THE
MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES ON TIMING WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST. THE
NEW EUROPEAN HAS TRENDED A BIT SLOWER AND FURTHER WEST. FOR NOW...WE
HAVE COMPROMISED. WE REMOVED POPS FOR THE MORNING AND HAVE ONLY
SLIGHT POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHWEST. AND EVEN HERE...THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION...AND WE SAID PRECIPITATION NOT SNOW...WOULD BE
TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WEST. AT THIS POINT...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
A MAJOR STORM. THE SOUTHERN ORIGIN KEEPS THE SYSTEM FROM HAVING A
LOT OF MOISTURE. IN ADDITION...WARMER AIR WOULD KEEP SNOW LEVELS
HIGHER. THE EUROPEAN HAS MORE PRECIPITATION THAN THE GFS AT THIS
POINT. STILL...MORE TIME TO WATCH IT. THE SYSTEM THEN SHIFTS EAST
ACROSS THE STATE. THIS DIRECTION IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR A LOT OF
PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE DIVIDE. FOR NOW...WE HAVE SLIGHT POPS IN
FOR MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH MORE
CLOUD COVER BUT STILL WARM FOR JANUARY. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
MAINLY RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AS WELL. BY THURSDAY...THE
SYSTEM WILL BE GONE AND REPLACED WITH DRY...NORTHWEST FLOW FOR
THURSDAY.

THE MODELS THEN BECOME DIAMETRICALLY OPPOSED FOR FRIDAY. THE GFS AND
EUROPEAN HAVE A SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE OTHER INGREDIENT IS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER DROPPING
SOUTHWARD. THE GFS HAS SHIFTED FURTHER WEST OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
AND ACTUALLY HAS A DECENT SWATH OF PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE
STATE FOR FRIDAY WITH AN ARCTIC AIR MAS DROPPING EAST OF THE
ROCKIES. MEANWHILE...THE EUROPEAN KEEPS THE CLIPPER FURTHER EAST
WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE EUROPEAN
HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT SO FOR NOW WE WILL ADD SOME SLIGHT POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH ONLY.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
UNTIL 17Z. IN THE FAR WEST FROM YELLOWSTONE PARK TO KEMMERER AREAS
OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR UNTIL 19Z. THEN VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE FAR WEST AFTER 19Z. GUSTY WIND WILL OCCUR AT
KRKS AND KCPR AIRPORTS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH PRESSURE LOOMS TO THE WEST WHILE ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM RIPPLES
AROUND THE HIGH TODAY. IT WILL HAVE MINOR IMPACT ON THE AREA WITH
SOME INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME BREEZES IN MOST AREAS...WITH STRONG
WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE BUFFALO AREA. THE MOUNTAINS MAY SEE SOME SNOW
WITH A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN THE LOW
ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN CODY DISPATCH AND CASPER DISPATCH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND
EXPECTED TO LAST INTO NEXT WEEK. WE STILL CAN NOT GET MIXING HEIGHTS
UP TOO MUCH...ESPECIALLY IN LESS WIND PRONE AREAS. HOWEVER THERE
WILL BE SOME HIGH END POOR TO FAIR SMOKE DISPERSAL POSSIBLE
TODAY...EVEN IN THE LESS WINDY AREAS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PS
LONG TERM...HATTINGS
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...PS







000
FXUS63 KUNR 250505
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1005 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 704 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH STRONGEST WINDS
CURRENTLY ALONG EAST SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS. HAVE LET WIND
HEADLINES EXPIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 241 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS IS RESULTING IN A TIGHT
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH WEAK CAA TO AID MIXING HAS
CREATED STRONG WINDS OVER NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND ON THE
PLAINS EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS
THE REST OF THE AREA. ANOTHER SFC TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ROTATING
AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE SFC LOW...MOVING FROM SERN MT INTO
NERN WY AND NWRN SD AND TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT AGAIN. THEREFORE
WILL KEEP THE CURRENT WIND HEADLINES IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTH
DAKOTA SIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH MID
LEVEL COOLING AND THE UPPER SHORTWAVE IS PRODUCING A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...AND POSSIBLY IN THE WEAK
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER NERN WY. THE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
SLIGHTLY EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...ALTHOUGH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO THE MID 30S.

ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPS FROM 40 TO 50 DEGREES AND
WESTERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 241 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL IN AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
FLATTENING OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS MIDWEEK. VERY MILD AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWER
60S...WARMEST OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS. AS THE
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN DURING MIDWEEK...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PUSH
THROUGH...BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. MODELS DIVERGE SOME TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH GFS SHOWING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WOULD BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW AND
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1003 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM KHEI-KPHP-KVTN. VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...7
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...7






000
FXUS63 KUNR 250505
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1005 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 704 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH STRONGEST WINDS
CURRENTLY ALONG EAST SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS. HAVE LET WIND
HEADLINES EXPIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 241 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS IS RESULTING IN A TIGHT
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH WEAK CAA TO AID MIXING HAS
CREATED STRONG WINDS OVER NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND ON THE
PLAINS EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS
THE REST OF THE AREA. ANOTHER SFC TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ROTATING
AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE SFC LOW...MOVING FROM SERN MT INTO
NERN WY AND NWRN SD AND TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT AGAIN. THEREFORE
WILL KEEP THE CURRENT WIND HEADLINES IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTH
DAKOTA SIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH MID
LEVEL COOLING AND THE UPPER SHORTWAVE IS PRODUCING A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...AND POSSIBLY IN THE WEAK
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER NERN WY. THE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
SLIGHTLY EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...ALTHOUGH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO THE MID 30S.

ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPS FROM 40 TO 50 DEGREES AND
WESTERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 241 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL IN AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
FLATTENING OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS MIDWEEK. VERY MILD AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWER
60S...WARMEST OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS. AS THE
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN DURING MIDWEEK...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PUSH
THROUGH...BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. MODELS DIVERGE SOME TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH GFS SHOWING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WOULD BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW AND
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1003 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM KHEI-KPHP-KVTN. VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...7
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...7







000
FXUS65 KCYS 250449
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
949 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

MSAS PRESSURE TENDENCY TRENDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS INDICATE
PRESSURE FALLS ARE STEADILY INCREASING OVER THE HIGH
COUNTRY...WHILE THE LEESIDE TROUGH IS WEAKENING. AS A RESULT...THE
GRADIENT IS ON THE SLOW BUT STEADY WEAKENING TREND WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN THE TREND THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CANCELLED THE HIGH WIND WARNING EARLY AS THE THREAT FOR STRONG
WINDS IS PRETTY MUCH OVER DUE TO THE RELAXING GRADIENT.
HOWEVER...COULD SEE BURSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WIND GUSTS IN WIND
PRONE AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-25 THROUGH THIS EVENING IN THE
WAKE OF THE MIDLVL WAVE DEPARTING TO THE SOUTHEAST. SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS...MOSTLY OF THE RAIN VARIETY...ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST THRU
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL SEE THIS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS THE MIDLVL SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD.

A 110 KT UPPER LEVEL JET OVER WYOMING NOW WILL MOVE OVER THE
PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT WITH LLVL WINDS STRENGTHENING. BASED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS THO...A RATHER STARK INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE
AROUND 875 MB AND WILL KEEP THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT. WITH THAT
SAID...IT WILL BE GUSTY TONIGHT FOR MANY PANHANDLE LOCATIONS WITH
GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH ESPECIALLY ALONG EXPOSED RIDGETOPS BUT
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA.

OTHER THAN GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE NEAR TERM...NO MAJOR
WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY OR MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH THIS TIME WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE CWA AND MINIMIZING ANY CHANCE FOR
PRECIP. STRONG WAA ALOFT AND A PERSISTENT BUT MARGINAL SW-NE
GRADIENT WILL KEEP THE WIND PRONE AREAS IN A ZONE OF HIGHER GAP
WINDS THROUGH MONDAY. THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE WITHIN
THE FLOW KEEPS THE GRADIENT FROM BECOMING STRONG...SO NO HIGH
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. H7 TEMPS WILL JUMP TO BETWEEN
4-6C ON MONDAY WITHIN THE WAA PATTERN AND UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WITHIN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. SFC TEMPS LOOK TO PEAK NEAR RECORD
VALUES IN THE 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS AS A RESULT. SHOULD BE A VERY
NICE DAY WITH ONLY BREEZY WINDS IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

QUITE MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS PASSES ACROSS WITH TROFFING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
ALLOWING FOR DOWNSLOPE FLOW. ON WEDNESDAY A WEAKENING UPPER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH SCTD RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. A PACIFIC COOL FRONT
WILL ALSO PASS ACROSS KNOCKING OFF ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES FOR MAXS
FROM TUESDAY. THURSDAY LOOKING GENERALLY DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPS
AS ANOTHER SHORT RIDGE TRANSLATES ACROSS. MODELS THEN DIVERGE FOR
SOLUTIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE GFS DIGGING A SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND BREAKS OUT PCPN
ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY WHILE THE EC MOVES A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE FARTHER EAST AND KEEPS THE CWA DRY. WILL FAVOR
THE EC AS IT HAS BETTER OVERALL SUPPORT BUT SHADE IN SOME LOW POPS
ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOR NOW. OTHERWISE A
COLDER PUSH OF CANADIAN AIR SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA TO CLOSE OUT
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 948 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR PREVAILS...EXCEPT FOR MVFR AT TIMES AT RAWLINS FROM 09Z TO
15Z. GUSTY WINDS THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 411 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...BUT ALL OTHER PARAMETERS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NON-CRITICAL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...RJM



000
FXUS65 KCYS 250449
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
949 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

MSAS PRESSURE TENDENCY TRENDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS INDICATE
PRESSURE FALLS ARE STEADILY INCREASING OVER THE HIGH
COUNTRY...WHILE THE LEESIDE TROUGH IS WEAKENING. AS A RESULT...THE
GRADIENT IS ON THE SLOW BUT STEADY WEAKENING TREND WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN THE TREND THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CANCELLED THE HIGH WIND WARNING EARLY AS THE THREAT FOR STRONG
WINDS IS PRETTY MUCH OVER DUE TO THE RELAXING GRADIENT.
HOWEVER...COULD SEE BURSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WIND GUSTS IN WIND
PRONE AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-25 THROUGH THIS EVENING IN THE
WAKE OF THE MIDLVL WAVE DEPARTING TO THE SOUTHEAST. SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS...MOSTLY OF THE RAIN VARIETY...ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST THRU
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL SEE THIS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS THE MIDLVL SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD.

A 110 KT UPPER LEVEL JET OVER WYOMING NOW WILL MOVE OVER THE
PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT WITH LLVL WINDS STRENGTHENING. BASED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS THO...A RATHER STARK INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE
AROUND 875 MB AND WILL KEEP THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT. WITH THAT
SAID...IT WILL BE GUSTY TONIGHT FOR MANY PANHANDLE LOCATIONS WITH
GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH ESPECIALLY ALONG EXPOSED RIDGETOPS BUT
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA.

OTHER THAN GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE NEAR TERM...NO MAJOR
WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY OR MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH THIS TIME WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE CWA AND MINIMIZING ANY CHANCE FOR
PRECIP. STRONG WAA ALOFT AND A PERSISTENT BUT MARGINAL SW-NE
GRADIENT WILL KEEP THE WIND PRONE AREAS IN A ZONE OF HIGHER GAP
WINDS THROUGH MONDAY. THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE WITHIN
THE FLOW KEEPS THE GRADIENT FROM BECOMING STRONG...SO NO HIGH
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. H7 TEMPS WILL JUMP TO BETWEEN
4-6C ON MONDAY WITHIN THE WAA PATTERN AND UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WITHIN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. SFC TEMPS LOOK TO PEAK NEAR RECORD
VALUES IN THE 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS AS A RESULT. SHOULD BE A VERY
NICE DAY WITH ONLY BREEZY WINDS IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

QUITE MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS PASSES ACROSS WITH TROFFING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
ALLOWING FOR DOWNSLOPE FLOW. ON WEDNESDAY A WEAKENING UPPER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH SCTD RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. A PACIFIC COOL FRONT
WILL ALSO PASS ACROSS KNOCKING OFF ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES FOR MAXS
FROM TUESDAY. THURSDAY LOOKING GENERALLY DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPS
AS ANOTHER SHORT RIDGE TRANSLATES ACROSS. MODELS THEN DIVERGE FOR
SOLUTIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE GFS DIGGING A SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND BREAKS OUT PCPN
ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY WHILE THE EC MOVES A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE FARTHER EAST AND KEEPS THE CWA DRY. WILL FAVOR
THE EC AS IT HAS BETTER OVERALL SUPPORT BUT SHADE IN SOME LOW POPS
ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOR NOW. OTHERWISE A
COLDER PUSH OF CANADIAN AIR SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA TO CLOSE OUT
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 948 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR PREVAILS...EXCEPT FOR MVFR AT TIMES AT RAWLINS FROM 09Z TO
15Z. GUSTY WINDS THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 411 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...BUT ALL OTHER PARAMETERS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NON-CRITICAL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...RJM



000
FXUS65 KCYS 250449
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
949 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

MSAS PRESSURE TENDENCY TRENDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS INDICATE
PRESSURE FALLS ARE STEADILY INCREASING OVER THE HIGH
COUNTRY...WHILE THE LEESIDE TROUGH IS WEAKENING. AS A RESULT...THE
GRADIENT IS ON THE SLOW BUT STEADY WEAKENING TREND WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN THE TREND THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CANCELLED THE HIGH WIND WARNING EARLY AS THE THREAT FOR STRONG
WINDS IS PRETTY MUCH OVER DUE TO THE RELAXING GRADIENT.
HOWEVER...COULD SEE BURSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WIND GUSTS IN WIND
PRONE AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-25 THROUGH THIS EVENING IN THE
WAKE OF THE MIDLVL WAVE DEPARTING TO THE SOUTHEAST. SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS...MOSTLY OF THE RAIN VARIETY...ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST THRU
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL SEE THIS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS THE MIDLVL SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD.

A 110 KT UPPER LEVEL JET OVER WYOMING NOW WILL MOVE OVER THE
PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT WITH LLVL WINDS STRENGTHENING. BASED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS THO...A RATHER STARK INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE
AROUND 875 MB AND WILL KEEP THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT. WITH THAT
SAID...IT WILL BE GUSTY TONIGHT FOR MANY PANHANDLE LOCATIONS WITH
GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH ESPECIALLY ALONG EXPOSED RIDGETOPS BUT
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA.

OTHER THAN GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE NEAR TERM...NO MAJOR
WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY OR MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH THIS TIME WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE CWA AND MINIMIZING ANY CHANCE FOR
PRECIP. STRONG WAA ALOFT AND A PERSISTENT BUT MARGINAL SW-NE
GRADIENT WILL KEEP THE WIND PRONE AREAS IN A ZONE OF HIGHER GAP
WINDS THROUGH MONDAY. THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE WITHIN
THE FLOW KEEPS THE GRADIENT FROM BECOMING STRONG...SO NO HIGH
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. H7 TEMPS WILL JUMP TO BETWEEN
4-6C ON MONDAY WITHIN THE WAA PATTERN AND UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WITHIN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. SFC TEMPS LOOK TO PEAK NEAR RECORD
VALUES IN THE 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS AS A RESULT. SHOULD BE A VERY
NICE DAY WITH ONLY BREEZY WINDS IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

QUITE MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS PASSES ACROSS WITH TROFFING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
ALLOWING FOR DOWNSLOPE FLOW. ON WEDNESDAY A WEAKENING UPPER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH SCTD RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. A PACIFIC COOL FRONT
WILL ALSO PASS ACROSS KNOCKING OFF ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES FOR MAXS
FROM TUESDAY. THURSDAY LOOKING GENERALLY DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPS
AS ANOTHER SHORT RIDGE TRANSLATES ACROSS. MODELS THEN DIVERGE FOR
SOLUTIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE GFS DIGGING A SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND BREAKS OUT PCPN
ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY WHILE THE EC MOVES A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE FARTHER EAST AND KEEPS THE CWA DRY. WILL FAVOR
THE EC AS IT HAS BETTER OVERALL SUPPORT BUT SHADE IN SOME LOW POPS
ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOR NOW. OTHERWISE A
COLDER PUSH OF CANADIAN AIR SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA TO CLOSE OUT
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 948 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR PREVAILS...EXCEPT FOR MVFR AT TIMES AT RAWLINS FROM 09Z TO
15Z. GUSTY WINDS THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 411 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...BUT ALL OTHER PARAMETERS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NON-CRITICAL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...RJM



000
FXUS65 KCYS 250449
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
949 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

MSAS PRESSURE TENDENCY TRENDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS INDICATE
PRESSURE FALLS ARE STEADILY INCREASING OVER THE HIGH
COUNTRY...WHILE THE LEESIDE TROUGH IS WEAKENING. AS A RESULT...THE
GRADIENT IS ON THE SLOW BUT STEADY WEAKENING TREND WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN THE TREND THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CANCELLED THE HIGH WIND WARNING EARLY AS THE THREAT FOR STRONG
WINDS IS PRETTY MUCH OVER DUE TO THE RELAXING GRADIENT.
HOWEVER...COULD SEE BURSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WIND GUSTS IN WIND
PRONE AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-25 THROUGH THIS EVENING IN THE
WAKE OF THE MIDLVL WAVE DEPARTING TO THE SOUTHEAST. SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS...MOSTLY OF THE RAIN VARIETY...ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST THRU
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL SEE THIS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS THE MIDLVL SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD.

A 110 KT UPPER LEVEL JET OVER WYOMING NOW WILL MOVE OVER THE
PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT WITH LLVL WINDS STRENGTHENING. BASED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS THO...A RATHER STARK INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE
AROUND 875 MB AND WILL KEEP THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT. WITH THAT
SAID...IT WILL BE GUSTY TONIGHT FOR MANY PANHANDLE LOCATIONS WITH
GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH ESPECIALLY ALONG EXPOSED RIDGETOPS BUT
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA.

OTHER THAN GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE NEAR TERM...NO MAJOR
WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY OR MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH THIS TIME WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE CWA AND MINIMIZING ANY CHANCE FOR
PRECIP. STRONG WAA ALOFT AND A PERSISTENT BUT MARGINAL SW-NE
GRADIENT WILL KEEP THE WIND PRONE AREAS IN A ZONE OF HIGHER GAP
WINDS THROUGH MONDAY. THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE WITHIN
THE FLOW KEEPS THE GRADIENT FROM BECOMING STRONG...SO NO HIGH
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. H7 TEMPS WILL JUMP TO BETWEEN
4-6C ON MONDAY WITHIN THE WAA PATTERN AND UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WITHIN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. SFC TEMPS LOOK TO PEAK NEAR RECORD
VALUES IN THE 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS AS A RESULT. SHOULD BE A VERY
NICE DAY WITH ONLY BREEZY WINDS IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

QUITE MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS PASSES ACROSS WITH TROFFING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
ALLOWING FOR DOWNSLOPE FLOW. ON WEDNESDAY A WEAKENING UPPER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH SCTD RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. A PACIFIC COOL FRONT
WILL ALSO PASS ACROSS KNOCKING OFF ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES FOR MAXS
FROM TUESDAY. THURSDAY LOOKING GENERALLY DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPS
AS ANOTHER SHORT RIDGE TRANSLATES ACROSS. MODELS THEN DIVERGE FOR
SOLUTIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE GFS DIGGING A SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND BREAKS OUT PCPN
ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY WHILE THE EC MOVES A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE FARTHER EAST AND KEEPS THE CWA DRY. WILL FAVOR
THE EC AS IT HAS BETTER OVERALL SUPPORT BUT SHADE IN SOME LOW POPS
ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOR NOW. OTHERWISE A
COLDER PUSH OF CANADIAN AIR SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA TO CLOSE OUT
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 948 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR PREVAILS...EXCEPT FOR MVFR AT TIMES AT RAWLINS FROM 09Z TO
15Z. GUSTY WINDS THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 411 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...BUT ALL OTHER PARAMETERS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NON-CRITICAL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...RJM



000
FXUS63 KUNR 250205
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
705 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 704 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH STONGEST WINDS
CURRENTLY ALONG EAST SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS. HAVE LET WIND
HEADLINES EXPIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 241 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS IS RESULTING IN A TIGHT
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH WEAK CAA TO AID MIXING HAS
CREATED STRONG WINDS OVER NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND ON THE
PLAINS EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS
THE REST OF THE AREA. ANOTHER SFC TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ROTATING
AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE SFC LOW...MOVING FROM SERN MT INTO
NERN WY AND NWRN SD AND TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT AGAIN. THEREFORE
WILL KEEP THE CURRENT WIND HEADLINES IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTH
DAKOTA SIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH MID
LEVEL COOLING AND THE UPPER SHORTWAVE IS PRODUCING A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...AND POSSIBLY IN THE WEAK
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER NERN WY. THE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
SLIGHTLY EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...ALTHOUGH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO THE MID 30S.

ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPS FROM 40 TO 50 DEGREES AND
WESTERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 241 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL IN AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
FLATTENING OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS MIDWEEK. VERY MILD AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWER
60S...WARMEST OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS. AS THE
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN DURING MIDWEEK...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PUSH
THROUGH...BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. MODELS DIVERGE SOME TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH GFS SHOWING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WOULD BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW AND
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 241 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

VERY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
SD PLAINS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE FROM K2WX TO KRAP...WHERE SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 50 KT ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...7
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15






000
FXUS63 KUNR 250205
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
705 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 704 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH STONGEST WINDS
CURRENTLY ALONG EAST SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS. HAVE LET WIND
HEADLINES EXPIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 241 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS IS RESULTING IN A TIGHT
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH WEAK CAA TO AID MIXING HAS
CREATED STRONG WINDS OVER NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND ON THE
PLAINS EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS
THE REST OF THE AREA. ANOTHER SFC TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ROTATING
AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE SFC LOW...MOVING FROM SERN MT INTO
NERN WY AND NWRN SD AND TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT AGAIN. THEREFORE
WILL KEEP THE CURRENT WIND HEADLINES IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTH
DAKOTA SIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH MID
LEVEL COOLING AND THE UPPER SHORTWAVE IS PRODUCING A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...AND POSSIBLY IN THE WEAK
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER NERN WY. THE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
SLIGHTLY EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...ALTHOUGH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO THE MID 30S.

ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPS FROM 40 TO 50 DEGREES AND
WESTERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 241 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL IN AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
FLATTENING OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS MIDWEEK. VERY MILD AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWER
60S...WARMEST OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS. AS THE
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN DURING MIDWEEK...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PUSH
THROUGH...BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. MODELS DIVERGE SOME TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH GFS SHOWING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WOULD BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW AND
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 241 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

VERY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
SD PLAINS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE FROM K2WX TO KRAP...WHERE SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 50 KT ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...7
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15







000
FXUS63 KUNR 250205
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
705 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 704 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH STONGEST WINDS
CURRENTLY ALONG EAST SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS. HAVE LET WIND
HEADLINES EXPIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 241 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS IS RESULTING IN A TIGHT
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH WEAK CAA TO AID MIXING HAS
CREATED STRONG WINDS OVER NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND ON THE
PLAINS EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS
THE REST OF THE AREA. ANOTHER SFC TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ROTATING
AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE SFC LOW...MOVING FROM SERN MT INTO
NERN WY AND NWRN SD AND TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT AGAIN. THEREFORE
WILL KEEP THE CURRENT WIND HEADLINES IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTH
DAKOTA SIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH MID
LEVEL COOLING AND THE UPPER SHORTWAVE IS PRODUCING A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...AND POSSIBLY IN THE WEAK
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER NERN WY. THE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
SLIGHTLY EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...ALTHOUGH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO THE MID 30S.

ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPS FROM 40 TO 50 DEGREES AND
WESTERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 241 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL IN AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
FLATTENING OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS MIDWEEK. VERY MILD AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWER
60S...WARMEST OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS. AS THE
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN DURING MIDWEEK...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PUSH
THROUGH...BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. MODELS DIVERGE SOME TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH GFS SHOWING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WOULD BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW AND
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 241 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

VERY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
SD PLAINS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE FROM K2WX TO KRAP...WHERE SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 50 KT ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...7
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15







000
FXUS63 KUNR 250205
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
705 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 704 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH STONGEST WINDS
CURRENTLY ALONG EAST SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS. HAVE LET WIND
HEADLINES EXPIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 241 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS IS RESULTING IN A TIGHT
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH WEAK CAA TO AID MIXING HAS
CREATED STRONG WINDS OVER NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND ON THE
PLAINS EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS
THE REST OF THE AREA. ANOTHER SFC TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ROTATING
AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE SFC LOW...MOVING FROM SERN MT INTO
NERN WY AND NWRN SD AND TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT AGAIN. THEREFORE
WILL KEEP THE CURRENT WIND HEADLINES IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTH
DAKOTA SIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH MID
LEVEL COOLING AND THE UPPER SHORTWAVE IS PRODUCING A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...AND POSSIBLY IN THE WEAK
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER NERN WY. THE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
SLIGHTLY EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...ALTHOUGH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO THE MID 30S.

ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPS FROM 40 TO 50 DEGREES AND
WESTERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 241 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL IN AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
FLATTENING OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS MIDWEEK. VERY MILD AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWER
60S...WARMEST OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS. AS THE
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN DURING MIDWEEK...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PUSH
THROUGH...BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. MODELS DIVERGE SOME TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH GFS SHOWING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WOULD BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW AND
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 241 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

VERY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
SD PLAINS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE FROM K2WX TO KRAP...WHERE SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 50 KT ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...7
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15






000
FXUS65 KCYS 242311
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
411 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

MSAS PRESSURE TENDENCY TRENDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS INDICATE
PRESSURE FALLS ARE STEADILY INCREASING OVER THE HIGH
COUNTRY...WHILE THE LEESIDE TROUGH IS WEAKENING. AS A RESULT...THE
GRADIENT IS ON THE SLOW BUT STEADY WEAKENING TREND WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN THE TREND THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CANCELLED THE HIGH WIND WARNING EARLY AS THE THREAT FOR STRONG
WINDS IS PRETTY MUCH OVER DUE TO THE RELAXING GRADIENT.
HOWEVER...COULD SEE BURSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WIND GUSTS IN WIND
PRONE AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-25 THROUGH THIS EVENING IN THE
WAKE OF THE MIDLVL WAVE DEPARTING TO THE SOUTHEAST. SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS...MOSTLY OF THE RAIN VARIETY...ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST THRU
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL SEE THIS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS THE MIDLVL SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD.

A 110 KT UPPER LEVEL JET OVER WYOMING NOW WILL MOVE OVER THE
PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT WITH LLVL WINDS STRENGTHENING. BASED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS THO...A RATHER STARK INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE
AROUND 875 MB AND WILL KEEP THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT. WITH THAT
SAID...IT WILL BE GUSTY TONIGHT FOR MANY PANHANDLE LOCATIONS WITH
GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH ESPECIALLY ALONG EXPOSED RIDGETOPS BUT
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA.

OTHER THAN GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE NEAR TERM...NO MAJOR
WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY OR MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH THIS TIME WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE CWA AND MINIMIZING ANY CHANCE FOR
PRECIP. STRONG WAA ALOFT AND A PERSISTENT BUT MARGINAL SW-NE
GRADIENT WILL KEEP THE WIND PRONE AREAS IN A ZONE OF HIGHER GAP
WINDS THROUGH MONDAY. THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE WITHIN
THE FLOW KEEPS THE GRADIENT FROM BECOMING STRONG...SO NO HIGH
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. H7 TEMPS WILL JUMP TO BETWEEN
4-6C ON MONDAY WITHIN THE WAA PATTERN AND UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WITHIN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. SFC TEMPS LOOK TO PEAK NEAR RECORD
VALUES IN THE 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS AS A RESULT. SHOULD BE A VERY
NICE DAY WITH ONLY BREEZY WINDS IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

QUITE MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS PASSES ACROSS WITH TROFFING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
ALLOWING FOR DOWNSLOPE FLOW. ON WEDNESDAY A WEAKENING UPPER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH SCTD RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. A PACIFIC COOL FRONT
WILL ALSO PASS ACROSS KNOCKING OFF ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES FOR MAXS
FROM TUESDAY. THURSDAY LOOKING GENERALLY DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPS
AS ANOTHER SHORT RIDGE TRANSLATES ACROSS. MODELS THEN DIVERGE FOR
SOLUTIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE GFS DIGGING A SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND BREAKS OUT PCPN
ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY WHILE THE EC MOVES A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE FARTHER EAST AND KEEPS THE CWA DRY. WILL FAVOR
THE EC AS IT HAS BETTER OVERALL SUPPORT BUT SHADE IN SOME LOW POPS
ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOR NOW. OTHERWISE A
COLDER PUSH OF CANADIAN AIR SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA TO CLOSE OUT
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 411 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL OVER ALL TERMINALS THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE
WILL BE SOME WIDELY SCTD SHOWERS MAINLY THIS EVENING AND A PERIOD
OF MVFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE IN THEIR VCTY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 411 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...BUT ALL OTHER PARAMETERS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NON-CRITICAL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...RJM



000
FXUS65 KCYS 242311
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
411 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

MSAS PRESSURE TENDENCY TRENDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS INDICATE
PRESSURE FALLS ARE STEADILY INCREASING OVER THE HIGH
COUNTRY...WHILE THE LEESIDE TROUGH IS WEAKENING. AS A RESULT...THE
GRADIENT IS ON THE SLOW BUT STEADY WEAKENING TREND WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN THE TREND THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CANCELLED THE HIGH WIND WARNING EARLY AS THE THREAT FOR STRONG
WINDS IS PRETTY MUCH OVER DUE TO THE RELAXING GRADIENT.
HOWEVER...COULD SEE BURSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WIND GUSTS IN WIND
PRONE AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-25 THROUGH THIS EVENING IN THE
WAKE OF THE MIDLVL WAVE DEPARTING TO THE SOUTHEAST. SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS...MOSTLY OF THE RAIN VARIETY...ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST THRU
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL SEE THIS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS THE MIDLVL SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD.

A 110 KT UPPER LEVEL JET OVER WYOMING NOW WILL MOVE OVER THE
PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT WITH LLVL WINDS STRENGTHENING. BASED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS THO...A RATHER STARK INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE
AROUND 875 MB AND WILL KEEP THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT. WITH THAT
SAID...IT WILL BE GUSTY TONIGHT FOR MANY PANHANDLE LOCATIONS WITH
GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH ESPECIALLY ALONG EXPOSED RIDGETOPS BUT
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA.

OTHER THAN GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE NEAR TERM...NO MAJOR
WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY OR MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH THIS TIME WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE CWA AND MINIMIZING ANY CHANCE FOR
PRECIP. STRONG WAA ALOFT AND A PERSISTENT BUT MARGINAL SW-NE
GRADIENT WILL KEEP THE WIND PRONE AREAS IN A ZONE OF HIGHER GAP
WINDS THROUGH MONDAY. THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE WITHIN
THE FLOW KEEPS THE GRADIENT FROM BECOMING STRONG...SO NO HIGH
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. H7 TEMPS WILL JUMP TO BETWEEN
4-6C ON MONDAY WITHIN THE WAA PATTERN AND UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WITHIN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. SFC TEMPS LOOK TO PEAK NEAR RECORD
VALUES IN THE 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS AS A RESULT. SHOULD BE A VERY
NICE DAY WITH ONLY BREEZY WINDS IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

QUITE MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS PASSES ACROSS WITH TROFFING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
ALLOWING FOR DOWNSLOPE FLOW. ON WEDNESDAY A WEAKENING UPPER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH SCTD RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. A PACIFIC COOL FRONT
WILL ALSO PASS ACROSS KNOCKING OFF ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES FOR MAXS
FROM TUESDAY. THURSDAY LOOKING GENERALLY DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPS
AS ANOTHER SHORT RIDGE TRANSLATES ACROSS. MODELS THEN DIVERGE FOR
SOLUTIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE GFS DIGGING A SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND BREAKS OUT PCPN
ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY WHILE THE EC MOVES A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE FARTHER EAST AND KEEPS THE CWA DRY. WILL FAVOR
THE EC AS IT HAS BETTER OVERALL SUPPORT BUT SHADE IN SOME LOW POPS
ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOR NOW. OTHERWISE A
COLDER PUSH OF CANADIAN AIR SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA TO CLOSE OUT
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 411 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL OVER ALL TERMINALS THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE
WILL BE SOME WIDELY SCTD SHOWERS MAINLY THIS EVENING AND A PERIOD
OF MVFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE IN THEIR VCTY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 411 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...BUT ALL OTHER PARAMETERS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NON-CRITICAL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...RJM




000
FXUS63 KUNR 242157
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
257 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 241 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS IS RESULTING IN A TIGHT
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH WEAK CAA TO AID MIXING HAS
CREATED STRONG WINDS OVER NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND ON THE
PLAINS EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS
THE REST OF THE AREA. ANOTHER SFC TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ROTATING
AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE SFC LOW...MOVING FROM SERN MT INTO
NERN WY AND NWRN SD AND TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT AGAIN. THEREFORE
WILL KEEP THE CURRENT WIND HEADLINES IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTH
DAKOTA SIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH MID
LEVEL COOLING AND THE UPPER SHORTWAVE IS PRODUCING A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...AND POSSIBLY IN THE WEAK
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER NERN WY. THE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
SLIGHTLY EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...ALTHOUGH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO THE MID 30S.

ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPS FROM 40 TO 50 DEGREES AND
WESTERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 241 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL IN AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
FLATTENING OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS MIDWEEK. VERY MILD AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWER
60S...WARMEST OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS. AS THE
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN DURING MIDWEEK...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PUSH
THROUGH...BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. MODELS DIVERGE SOME TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH GFS SHOWING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WOULD BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW AND
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 241 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

VERY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
SD PLAINS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE FROM K2WX TO KRAP...WHERE SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 50 KT ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MST /8 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ014-
     025-030-032-042>044-046-047-074.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012-
     013-026-031-072-073.

WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR WYZ071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15







000
FXUS63 KUNR 242157
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
257 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 241 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS IS RESULTING IN A TIGHT
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH WEAK CAA TO AID MIXING HAS
CREATED STRONG WINDS OVER NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND ON THE
PLAINS EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS
THE REST OF THE AREA. ANOTHER SFC TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ROTATING
AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE SFC LOW...MOVING FROM SERN MT INTO
NERN WY AND NWRN SD AND TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT AGAIN. THEREFORE
WILL KEEP THE CURRENT WIND HEADLINES IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTH
DAKOTA SIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH MID
LEVEL COOLING AND THE UPPER SHORTWAVE IS PRODUCING A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...AND POSSIBLY IN THE WEAK
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER NERN WY. THE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
SLIGHTLY EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...ALTHOUGH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO THE MID 30S.

ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPS FROM 40 TO 50 DEGREES AND
WESTERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 241 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL IN AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
FLATTENING OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS MIDWEEK. VERY MILD AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWER
60S...WARMEST OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS. AS THE
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN DURING MIDWEEK...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PUSH
THROUGH...BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. MODELS DIVERGE SOME TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH GFS SHOWING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WOULD BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW AND
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 241 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

VERY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
SD PLAINS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE FROM K2WX TO KRAP...WHERE SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 50 KT ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MST /8 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ014-
     025-030-032-042>044-046-047-074.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012-
     013-026-031-072-073.

WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR WYZ071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15






000
FXUS65 KRIW 242047
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
147 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

ACTIVE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SWRN ND ATTM WITH CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS BUILDING AS FAR WEST AS NERN JOHNSON COUNTY. LIGHT WARM
ADVECTION PCPN IF FURTHER WEST FROM ABOUT THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS
WWD TO THE TETONS. POWDER RIVER PASS HAS SEEN SOME PRETTY DECENT
SNOW AT TIMES TODAY AS HAS HIGHWAY 14. THE POWDER RIVER SNOTEL
REPORTED A 4 INCH SNOW DEPTH INCREASE THIS MORNING. LIGHTER SNOWS HAVE
FALLEN FURTHER WEST. LIGHT MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS HAVE FALLEN ACROSS
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH...MAINLY IN JOHNSON COUNTY A
COUPLE TIMES TODAY. PROBABLY THE MOST INTERESTING WEATHER TODAY IN
CENTRAL WYOMING HAS BEEN WATCHING THE STRONG NW WIND SLOWLY EDGING
TOWARDS THE CENTER OF THE WIND RIVER BASIN TODAY. WINDS HAVE
GUSTED OVER 35 MPH AT OUR OFFICE AND AROUND 30 MPH SO FAR AT THE
KRIW AIRPORT. TEMPS POPPED UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S ONCE THE
WINDS HIT. INVERSION WAS DECENT THIS MORNING BUT IT DIDN`T MATTER
TODAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT ACROSS THE NRN
MOUNTAINS WITH A FEW LIGHT MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES EAST OF
THE DIVIDE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. CLOUD COVER IS A LITTLE TRICKY
WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INTO THE NIGHT WITH THICKER CLOUDS
POTENTIALLY THINNING THIS EVENING. CENTRAL AND PARTS OF THE SWRN
SECTIONS MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING
THIS EVENING WITH A LITTLE MORE SPILLOVER TRYING TO WORK SOUTH
SUNDAY MORNING. LOOKS THINNER RIGHT NOW THAN TODAY`S ACTION. AFTER
A LITTLE COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY...WE`LL RETURN TO WARMING IN THE
MID LEVELS ON SUNDAY. SOME LEE TROUGHING REDEVELOPING AFTER A
LITTLE LULL THIS WILL KEEP WINDS GOING THROUGH SUNDAY IN ABOUT THE
SAME AREAS. THE CLARK HIGHWAY 120 SENSOR HIT 60 MPH+ A COUPLE
TIMES THIS MORNING PEAKING OUT AT 68 MPH. EVEN THE SHERIFF`S
OFFICE IN CODY HIT 46 MPH THIS MORNING. BASINS AND VALLEYS WILL
REMAIN AT LEAST PARTIALLY TRAPPED TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY IN THE
WEST.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM IS FAIRLY QUIET. ANY SHOWERS FROM
THE LAST OF THE SHORTWAVES SHOULD BE ENDING BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND WITH
RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA EXPECT MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS. THE
MAIN CONCERN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR INVERSIONS TO THROW A MONKEY WRENCH
INTO THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR THE BASINS AND VALLEYS. THE
CONDITIONS FOR FOG LOOK TO BE DECENT WITH A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT
WINDS. IT MAY NOT BE A THICK AS SOME OF THE FOG EARLIER THIS
MONTH...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE SINCE SNOW COVER IS MUCH LESS
WITH A LOT OF BARE SPOTS APPEARING. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE SOME
AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD IT HANDLED WELL SO WE MADE FEW
CHANGES. AS FOR INVERSIONS...THERE ARE THE SAME CONCERNS. WITH GOOD
SNOWPACK WEST OF THE DIVIDE...INVERSIONS SEEM FAIRLY LIKELY THERE.
EAST OF THE DIVIDE...MAYBE NOT QUITE AS CERTAIN SINCE THE
AFOREMENTIONED LACK OF FRESH SNOW COULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND ALBEDO A BIT. FOR NOW...WE KEPT THE TEMPERATURES COOLER WITH THE
THINKING THAT IF IT GETS WARMER...MOST PEOPLE WILL BE HAPPY. THE
AREAS THAT DO MIX WELL...AKA CODY...CASPER...BUFFALO...COULD GET
QUITE WARM. THE NAM MOS HIGH FOR BUFFALO ON MONDAY IS 73!  THIS IS
PROBABLY OVERDONE BUT WE DID PUT SOME 60S IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE WEST LATER ON
TUESDAY...THIS ONE COMING UP FROM THE BAJA AND FROM THE SOUTH. THE
MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES ON TIMING WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST. THE
NEW EUROPEAN HAS TRENDED A BIT SLOWER AND FURTHER WEST. FOR NOW...WE
HAVE COMPROMISED. WE REMOVED POPS FOR THE MORNING AND HAVE ONLY
SLIGHT POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHWEST. AND EVEN HERE...THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION...AND WE SAID PRECIPITATION NOT SNOW...WOULD BE
TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WEST. AT THIS POINT...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
A MAJOR STORM. THE SOUTHERN ORIGIN KEEPS THE SYSTEM FROM HAVING A
LOT OF MOISTURE. IN ADDITION...WARMER AIR WOULD KEEP SNOW LEVELS
HIGHER. THE EUROPEAN HAS MORE PRECIPITATION THAN THE GFS AT THIS
POINT. STILL...MORE TIME TO WATCH IT. THE SYSTEM THEN SHIFTS EAST
ACROSS THE STATE. THIS DIRECTION IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR A LOT OF
PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE DIVIDE. FOR NOW...WE HAVE SLIGHT POPS IN
FOR MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH MORE
CLOUD COVER BUT STILL WARM FOR JANUARY. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
MAINLY RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AS WELL. BY THURSDAY...THE
SYSTEM WILL BE GONE AND REPLACED WITH DRY...NORTHWEST FLOW FOR
THURSDAY.

THE MODELS THEN BECOME DIAMETRICALLY OPPOSED FOR FRIDAY. THE GFS AND
EUROPEAN HAVE A SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE OTHER INGREDIENT IS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER DROPPING
SOUTHWARD. THE GFS HAS SHIFTED FURTHER WEST OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
AND ACTUALLY HAS A DECENT SWATH OF PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE
STATE FOR FRIDAY WITH AN ARCTIC AIR MAS DROPPING EAST OF THE
ROCKIES. MEANWHILE...THE EUROPEAN KEEPS THE CLIPPER FURTHER EAST
WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE EUROPEAN
HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT SO FOR NOW WE WILL ADD SOME SLIGHT POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH ONLY.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.
SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN WY WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT RAIN
MAY GET CLOSE TO THE CASPER AIRPORT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS AT KCPR AIRPORT TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A GUSTY WIND WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY
AFTER 17Z AND THIS WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE KBYG
AIRPORT WILL LIKELY SEE WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KNOTS.

AT THE KJAC AIRPORT LIGHT SNOW WILL FALL AT TIMES THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY
WITH VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH PRESSURE LOOMS TO THE WEST WHILE ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM RIPPLES
AROUND THE HIGH TODAY. IT WILL HAVE MINOR IMPACT ON THE AREA WITH
SOME INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME BREEZES IN MOST AREAS...WITH STRONG
WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE BUFFALO AREA. THE MOUNTAINS MAY SEE SOME SNOW
WITH A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN THE LOW
ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN CODY DISPATCH AND CASPER DISPATCH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND
EXPECTED TO LAST INTO NEXT WEEK. WE STILL CAN NOT GET MIXING HEIGHTS
UP TOO MUCH...ESPECIALLY IN LESS WIND PRONE AREAS. HOWEVER THERE
WILL BE SOME HIGH END POOR TO FAIR SMOKE DISPERSAL POSSIBLE
TODAY...EVEN IN THE LESS WINDY AREAS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PS
LONG TERM...HATTINGS
AVIATION...PS
FIRE WEATHER...PS









000
FXUS65 KRIW 242047
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
147 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

ACTIVE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SWRN ND ATTM WITH CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS BUILDING AS FAR WEST AS NERN JOHNSON COUNTY. LIGHT WARM
ADVECTION PCPN IF FURTHER WEST FROM ABOUT THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS
WWD TO THE TETONS. POWDER RIVER PASS HAS SEEN SOME PRETTY DECENT
SNOW AT TIMES TODAY AS HAS HIGHWAY 14. THE POWDER RIVER SNOTEL
REPORTED A 4 INCH SNOW DEPTH INCREASE THIS MORNING. LIGHTER SNOWS HAVE
FALLEN FURTHER WEST. LIGHT MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS HAVE FALLEN ACROSS
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH...MAINLY IN JOHNSON COUNTY A
COUPLE TIMES TODAY. PROBABLY THE MOST INTERESTING WEATHER TODAY IN
CENTRAL WYOMING HAS BEEN WATCHING THE STRONG NW WIND SLOWLY EDGING
TOWARDS THE CENTER OF THE WIND RIVER BASIN TODAY. WINDS HAVE
GUSTED OVER 35 MPH AT OUR OFFICE AND AROUND 30 MPH SO FAR AT THE
KRIW AIRPORT. TEMPS POPPED UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S ONCE THE
WINDS HIT. INVERSION WAS DECENT THIS MORNING BUT IT DIDN`T MATTER
TODAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT ACROSS THE NRN
MOUNTAINS WITH A FEW LIGHT MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES EAST OF
THE DIVIDE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. CLOUD COVER IS A LITTLE TRICKY
WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INTO THE NIGHT WITH THICKER CLOUDS
POTENTIALLY THINNING THIS EVENING. CENTRAL AND PARTS OF THE SWRN
SECTIONS MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING
THIS EVENING WITH A LITTLE MORE SPILLOVER TRYING TO WORK SOUTH
SUNDAY MORNING. LOOKS THINNER RIGHT NOW THAN TODAY`S ACTION. AFTER
A LITTLE COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY...WE`LL RETURN TO WARMING IN THE
MID LEVELS ON SUNDAY. SOME LEE TROUGHING REDEVELOPING AFTER A
LITTLE LULL THIS WILL KEEP WINDS GOING THROUGH SUNDAY IN ABOUT THE
SAME AREAS. THE CLARK HIGHWAY 120 SENSOR HIT 60 MPH+ A COUPLE
TIMES THIS MORNING PEAKING OUT AT 68 MPH. EVEN THE SHERIFF`S
OFFICE IN CODY HIT 46 MPH THIS MORNING. BASINS AND VALLEYS WILL
REMAIN AT LEAST PARTIALLY TRAPPED TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY IN THE
WEST.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM IS FAIRLY QUIET. ANY SHOWERS FROM
THE LAST OF THE SHORTWAVES SHOULD BE ENDING BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND WITH
RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA EXPECT MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS. THE
MAIN CONCERN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR INVERSIONS TO THROW A MONKEY WRENCH
INTO THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR THE BASINS AND VALLEYS. THE
CONDITIONS FOR FOG LOOK TO BE DECENT WITH A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT
WINDS. IT MAY NOT BE A THICK AS SOME OF THE FOG EARLIER THIS
MONTH...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE SINCE SNOW COVER IS MUCH LESS
WITH A LOT OF BARE SPOTS APPEARING. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE SOME
AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD IT HANDLED WELL SO WE MADE FEW
CHANGES. AS FOR INVERSIONS...THERE ARE THE SAME CONCERNS. WITH GOOD
SNOWPACK WEST OF THE DIVIDE...INVERSIONS SEEM FAIRLY LIKELY THERE.
EAST OF THE DIVIDE...MAYBE NOT QUITE AS CERTAIN SINCE THE
AFOREMENTIONED LACK OF FRESH SNOW COULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND ALBEDO A BIT. FOR NOW...WE KEPT THE TEMPERATURES COOLER WITH THE
THINKING THAT IF IT GETS WARMER...MOST PEOPLE WILL BE HAPPY. THE
AREAS THAT DO MIX WELL...AKA CODY...CASPER...BUFFALO...COULD GET
QUITE WARM. THE NAM MOS HIGH FOR BUFFALO ON MONDAY IS 73!  THIS IS
PROBABLY OVERDONE BUT WE DID PUT SOME 60S IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE WEST LATER ON
TUESDAY...THIS ONE COMING UP FROM THE BAJA AND FROM THE SOUTH. THE
MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES ON TIMING WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST. THE
NEW EUROPEAN HAS TRENDED A BIT SLOWER AND FURTHER WEST. FOR NOW...WE
HAVE COMPROMISED. WE REMOVED POPS FOR THE MORNING AND HAVE ONLY
SLIGHT POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHWEST. AND EVEN HERE...THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION...AND WE SAID PRECIPITATION NOT SNOW...WOULD BE
TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WEST. AT THIS POINT...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
A MAJOR STORM. THE SOUTHERN ORIGIN KEEPS THE SYSTEM FROM HAVING A
LOT OF MOISTURE. IN ADDITION...WARMER AIR WOULD KEEP SNOW LEVELS
HIGHER. THE EUROPEAN HAS MORE PRECIPITATION THAN THE GFS AT THIS
POINT. STILL...MORE TIME TO WATCH IT. THE SYSTEM THEN SHIFTS EAST
ACROSS THE STATE. THIS DIRECTION IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR A LOT OF
PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE DIVIDE. FOR NOW...WE HAVE SLIGHT POPS IN
FOR MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH MORE
CLOUD COVER BUT STILL WARM FOR JANUARY. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
MAINLY RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AS WELL. BY THURSDAY...THE
SYSTEM WILL BE GONE AND REPLACED WITH DRY...NORTHWEST FLOW FOR
THURSDAY.

THE MODELS THEN BECOME DIAMETRICALLY OPPOSED FOR FRIDAY. THE GFS AND
EUROPEAN HAVE A SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE OTHER INGREDIENT IS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER DROPPING
SOUTHWARD. THE GFS HAS SHIFTED FURTHER WEST OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
AND ACTUALLY HAS A DECENT SWATH OF PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE
STATE FOR FRIDAY WITH AN ARCTIC AIR MAS DROPPING EAST OF THE
ROCKIES. MEANWHILE...THE EUROPEAN KEEPS THE CLIPPER FURTHER EAST
WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE EUROPEAN
HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT SO FOR NOW WE WILL ADD SOME SLIGHT POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH ONLY.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.
SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN WY WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT RAIN
MAY GET CLOSE TO THE CASPER AIRPORT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS AT KCPR AIRPORT TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A GUSTY WIND WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY
AFTER 17Z AND THIS WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE KBYG
AIRPORT WILL LIKELY SEE WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KNOTS.

AT THE KJAC AIRPORT LIGHT SNOW WILL FALL AT TIMES THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY
WITH VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH PRESSURE LOOMS TO THE WEST WHILE ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM RIPPLES
AROUND THE HIGH TODAY. IT WILL HAVE MINOR IMPACT ON THE AREA WITH
SOME INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME BREEZES IN MOST AREAS...WITH STRONG
WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE BUFFALO AREA. THE MOUNTAINS MAY SEE SOME SNOW
WITH A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN THE LOW
ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN CODY DISPATCH AND CASPER DISPATCH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND
EXPECTED TO LAST INTO NEXT WEEK. WE STILL CAN NOT GET MIXING HEIGHTS
UP TOO MUCH...ESPECIALLY IN LESS WIND PRONE AREAS. HOWEVER THERE
WILL BE SOME HIGH END POOR TO FAIR SMOKE DISPERSAL POSSIBLE
TODAY...EVEN IN THE LESS WINDY AREAS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PS
LONG TERM...HATTINGS
AVIATION...PS
FIRE WEATHER...PS








000
FXUS65 KRIW 241820
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1120 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

A SWATH OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE ASSOCIATED
WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THERE ARE ALSO
SOME RETURNS ON THE BILLINGS RADAR BEGINNING TO SHOW AT THIS EARLY
HOUR THOUGH IT APPEARS AS THOUGH NOT MUCH IS REACHING THE SURFACE AS
DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE TEENS AND 20S. THIS AREA OF CLOUD COVER
IS ACTUALLY SEVERAL HOURS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE...SO WAS GENEROUS WITH
THE COVERAGE OF POPS THIS MORNING EVEN THOUGH NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED OUT OF THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY THIS FAR AHEAD OF THE
JET SUPPORT. OVERALL...FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR WEST AND TROUGHING TO OUR EAST. THERE
WILL BE A SHOT AT SOME MORE PRECIPITATION TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND IN THE NORTHERN BIGHORN BASIN AND JOHNSON
COUNTY. THERE IS SOME MODEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A JET OVERHEAD IN
ADDITION TO SOME ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...THOUGH THE SIGNATURE IS NOT
LOOKING AS PRONOUNCED IN RECENT MODEL RUNS...KEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH AS THAT SHOULD COVER THE EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS WAVE.

THERE IS SOME CONCERN OF A BRIEF WIND EVENT AROUND BUFFALO AND
PINEY CREEK AS FLOW ALIGNS TO THAT SWEET SPOT FOR THIS AREA...A FEW
WIND GUSTS COULD EXCEED 55MPH TODAY...700MB FLOW REMAINS STRONGER TO
THE NORTH AND EAST AND THE AREA OF CONCERN REMAINS IN A LESS FAVORED
POSITION FOR THE DOWNWARD FORCING NEEDED FOR A DAMAGING WIND
EVENT...NONETHELESS IT WILL BE A VERY WINDY DAY AROUND NORTHERN
JOHNSON COUNTY AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR ANY LAST MINUTE
PATTERN CHANGES THAT WOULD REQUIRE A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE
BUFFALO AREA. OTHERWISE...LEE SIDE TROUGHING HOLDS AT THE SURFACE WITH
DECENT MIXING OF MILD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
TODAY. MANY LOCATIONS EAST OF THE DIVIDE WILL BE VERY MILD WITH MANY
AREAS TOPPING OUT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

HEIGHTS WILL STEADILY RISE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED TO OUR WEST MIGRATES EAST. AS A RESULT...THINGS BEGIN TO
CLEAR OUT ON SUNDAY AND A WARMING TREND BEGINS. IT WILL BRING IN
SOME VERY MILD AIR FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...RISING TO AROUND +7C AT
H7 BY MONDAY...WHICH IS NEAR RECORD TERRITORY FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AT THE SURFACE THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S DURING THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT NO LONGER HAVE A SNOW PACK AND IN
AREAS WHERE THERE WILL BE AN AFTERNOON BREEZE.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD AND DRY DAY WILL PREVAIL EAST
OF THE DIVIDE ON TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN WILL SPREAD SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL TURN EAST ACROSS
WYOMING TUESDAY NIGHT SPREADING CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS MOST AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A DRIER NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
ALONG WITH COOLER...BUT STILL NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.


DISCUSSION...ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SLOWER THAN GFS KICKING
BAJA UPPER LOW NE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...E ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THAT IS UNTIL THE LATEST RUNS WHERE
ECMWF NOW IS FASTER AND LESS FRAGMENTED SWINGING REMNANTS OF SYSTEM
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE GFS IS NOW THE MORE FRAGMENTED
AND SLOWER MODEL...LAGGING MAIN COLD CORE BACK NEAR RENO 12Z
WEDNESDAY AND SHEARING OUT THIS SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  ECMWF SHOWS THE MOST OVERALL CONSISTENCY AND LESS
RADICAL CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.  FORECAST
SPEEDS UP A TAD THE SPREADING OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THIS SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT MOVES INTO STRONG DOWNSTREAM RIDGE...SO
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND COVERAGE SPOTTY WITH SNOW
LEVELS INITIALLY AROUND 8KFT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE WEST ON
TUESDAY...LOWERING TO 5-6KFT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

ECMWF HAS THIS SYSTEM MOVING OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY 00Z
THURSDAY WITH CLIPPER IN NORTHERN STREAM RACING SE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  THIS WILL PUT WYOMING IN NW CONFLUENT FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  24 HOURS
AGO...GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DROPPING A SECOND
CLIPPER INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE FRIDAY.  LATEST GFS SHOWS A
SHARPER UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST AND DRIVES AN ARCTIC BLAST
DOWN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.  ECMWF
CONTINUES TO KEEP THIS SYSTEM AND THE BULK OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS TO
OUR EAST OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.  CONFIDENCE IN AN ARCTIC
INTRUSION IS LOW AT THIS TIME WITH GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS
SIDING WITH A BROADER RIDGE OVER THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.
SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN WY WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT RAIN
MAY GET CLOSE TO THE CASPER AIRPORT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS AT KCPR AIRPORT TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A GUSTY WIND WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY
AFTER 17Z AND THIS WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE KBYG
AIRPORT WILL LIKELY SEE WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KNOTS.

AT THE KJAC AIRPORT LIGHT SNOW WILL FALL AT TIMES THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY
WITH VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH PRESSURE LOOMS TO THE WEST WHILE ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM RIPPLES
AROUND THE HIGH TODAY. IT WILL HAVE MINOR IMPACT ON THE AREA WITH
SOME INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME BREEZES IN MOST AREAS...WITH STRONG
WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE BUFFALO AREA. THE MOUNTAINS MAY SEE SOME SNOW
WITH A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN THE LOW
ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN CODY DISPATCH AND CASPER DISPATCH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND
EXPECTED TO LAST INTO NEXT WEEK. WE STILL CAN NOT GET MIXING HEIGHTS
UP TOO MUCH...ESPECIALLY IN LESS WIND PRONE AREAS. HOWEVER THERE
WILL BE SOME HIGH END POOR TO FAIR SMOKE DISPERSAL POSSIBLE
TODAY...EVEN IN THE LESS WINDY AREAS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ALLEN
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...PS
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN








000
FXUS65 KRIW 241820
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1120 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

A SWATH OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE ASSOCIATED
WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THERE ARE ALSO
SOME RETURNS ON THE BILLINGS RADAR BEGINNING TO SHOW AT THIS EARLY
HOUR THOUGH IT APPEARS AS THOUGH NOT MUCH IS REACHING THE SURFACE AS
DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE TEENS AND 20S. THIS AREA OF CLOUD COVER
IS ACTUALLY SEVERAL HOURS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE...SO WAS GENEROUS WITH
THE COVERAGE OF POPS THIS MORNING EVEN THOUGH NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED OUT OF THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY THIS FAR AHEAD OF THE
JET SUPPORT. OVERALL...FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR WEST AND TROUGHING TO OUR EAST. THERE
WILL BE A SHOT AT SOME MORE PRECIPITATION TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND IN THE NORTHERN BIGHORN BASIN AND JOHNSON
COUNTY. THERE IS SOME MODEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A JET OVERHEAD IN
ADDITION TO SOME ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...THOUGH THE SIGNATURE IS NOT
LOOKING AS PRONOUNCED IN RECENT MODEL RUNS...KEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH AS THAT SHOULD COVER THE EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS WAVE.

THERE IS SOME CONCERN OF A BRIEF WIND EVENT AROUND BUFFALO AND
PINEY CREEK AS FLOW ALIGNS TO THAT SWEET SPOT FOR THIS AREA...A FEW
WIND GUSTS COULD EXCEED 55MPH TODAY...700MB FLOW REMAINS STRONGER TO
THE NORTH AND EAST AND THE AREA OF CONCERN REMAINS IN A LESS FAVORED
POSITION FOR THE DOWNWARD FORCING NEEDED FOR A DAMAGING WIND
EVENT...NONETHELESS IT WILL BE A VERY WINDY DAY AROUND NORTHERN
JOHNSON COUNTY AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR ANY LAST MINUTE
PATTERN CHANGES THAT WOULD REQUIRE A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE
BUFFALO AREA. OTHERWISE...LEE SIDE TROUGHING HOLDS AT THE SURFACE WITH
DECENT MIXING OF MILD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
TODAY. MANY LOCATIONS EAST OF THE DIVIDE WILL BE VERY MILD WITH MANY
AREAS TOPPING OUT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

HEIGHTS WILL STEADILY RISE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED TO OUR WEST MIGRATES EAST. AS A RESULT...THINGS BEGIN TO
CLEAR OUT ON SUNDAY AND A WARMING TREND BEGINS. IT WILL BRING IN
SOME VERY MILD AIR FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...RISING TO AROUND +7C AT
H7 BY MONDAY...WHICH IS NEAR RECORD TERRITORY FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AT THE SURFACE THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S DURING THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT NO LONGER HAVE A SNOW PACK AND IN
AREAS WHERE THERE WILL BE AN AFTERNOON BREEZE.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD AND DRY DAY WILL PREVAIL EAST
OF THE DIVIDE ON TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN WILL SPREAD SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL TURN EAST ACROSS
WYOMING TUESDAY NIGHT SPREADING CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS MOST AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A DRIER NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
ALONG WITH COOLER...BUT STILL NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.


DISCUSSION...ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SLOWER THAN GFS KICKING
BAJA UPPER LOW NE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...E ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THAT IS UNTIL THE LATEST RUNS WHERE
ECMWF NOW IS FASTER AND LESS FRAGMENTED SWINGING REMNANTS OF SYSTEM
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE GFS IS NOW THE MORE FRAGMENTED
AND SLOWER MODEL...LAGGING MAIN COLD CORE BACK NEAR RENO 12Z
WEDNESDAY AND SHEARING OUT THIS SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  ECMWF SHOWS THE MOST OVERALL CONSISTENCY AND LESS
RADICAL CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.  FORECAST
SPEEDS UP A TAD THE SPREADING OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THIS SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT MOVES INTO STRONG DOWNSTREAM RIDGE...SO
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND COVERAGE SPOTTY WITH SNOW
LEVELS INITIALLY AROUND 8KFT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE WEST ON
TUESDAY...LOWERING TO 5-6KFT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

ECMWF HAS THIS SYSTEM MOVING OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY 00Z
THURSDAY WITH CLIPPER IN NORTHERN STREAM RACING SE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  THIS WILL PUT WYOMING IN NW CONFLUENT FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  24 HOURS
AGO...GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DROPPING A SECOND
CLIPPER INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE FRIDAY.  LATEST GFS SHOWS A
SHARPER UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST AND DRIVES AN ARCTIC BLAST
DOWN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.  ECMWF
CONTINUES TO KEEP THIS SYSTEM AND THE BULK OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS TO
OUR EAST OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.  CONFIDENCE IN AN ARCTIC
INTRUSION IS LOW AT THIS TIME WITH GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS
SIDING WITH A BROADER RIDGE OVER THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.
SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN WY WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT RAIN
MAY GET CLOSE TO THE CASPER AIRPORT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS AT KCPR AIRPORT TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A GUSTY WIND WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY
AFTER 17Z AND THIS WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE KBYG
AIRPORT WILL LIKELY SEE WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KNOTS.

AT THE KJAC AIRPORT LIGHT SNOW WILL FALL AT TIMES THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY
WITH VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH PRESSURE LOOMS TO THE WEST WHILE ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM RIPPLES
AROUND THE HIGH TODAY. IT WILL HAVE MINOR IMPACT ON THE AREA WITH
SOME INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME BREEZES IN MOST AREAS...WITH STRONG
WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE BUFFALO AREA. THE MOUNTAINS MAY SEE SOME SNOW
WITH A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN THE LOW
ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN CODY DISPATCH AND CASPER DISPATCH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND
EXPECTED TO LAST INTO NEXT WEEK. WE STILL CAN NOT GET MIXING HEIGHTS
UP TOO MUCH...ESPECIALLY IN LESS WIND PRONE AREAS. HOWEVER THERE
WILL BE SOME HIGH END POOR TO FAIR SMOKE DISPERSAL POSSIBLE
TODAY...EVEN IN THE LESS WINDY AREAS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ALLEN
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...PS
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN








000
FXUS65 KRIW 241820
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1120 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

A SWATH OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE ASSOCIATED
WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THERE ARE ALSO
SOME RETURNS ON THE BILLINGS RADAR BEGINNING TO SHOW AT THIS EARLY
HOUR THOUGH IT APPEARS AS THOUGH NOT MUCH IS REACHING THE SURFACE AS
DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE TEENS AND 20S. THIS AREA OF CLOUD COVER
IS ACTUALLY SEVERAL HOURS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE...SO WAS GENEROUS WITH
THE COVERAGE OF POPS THIS MORNING EVEN THOUGH NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED OUT OF THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY THIS FAR AHEAD OF THE
JET SUPPORT. OVERALL...FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR WEST AND TROUGHING TO OUR EAST. THERE
WILL BE A SHOT AT SOME MORE PRECIPITATION TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND IN THE NORTHERN BIGHORN BASIN AND JOHNSON
COUNTY. THERE IS SOME MODEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A JET OVERHEAD IN
ADDITION TO SOME ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...THOUGH THE SIGNATURE IS NOT
LOOKING AS PRONOUNCED IN RECENT MODEL RUNS...KEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH AS THAT SHOULD COVER THE EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS WAVE.

THERE IS SOME CONCERN OF A BRIEF WIND EVENT AROUND BUFFALO AND
PINEY CREEK AS FLOW ALIGNS TO THAT SWEET SPOT FOR THIS AREA...A FEW
WIND GUSTS COULD EXCEED 55MPH TODAY...700MB FLOW REMAINS STRONGER TO
THE NORTH AND EAST AND THE AREA OF CONCERN REMAINS IN A LESS FAVORED
POSITION FOR THE DOWNWARD FORCING NEEDED FOR A DAMAGING WIND
EVENT...NONETHELESS IT WILL BE A VERY WINDY DAY AROUND NORTHERN
JOHNSON COUNTY AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR ANY LAST MINUTE
PATTERN CHANGES THAT WOULD REQUIRE A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE
BUFFALO AREA. OTHERWISE...LEE SIDE TROUGHING HOLDS AT THE SURFACE WITH
DECENT MIXING OF MILD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
TODAY. MANY LOCATIONS EAST OF THE DIVIDE WILL BE VERY MILD WITH MANY
AREAS TOPPING OUT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

HEIGHTS WILL STEADILY RISE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED TO OUR WEST MIGRATES EAST. AS A RESULT...THINGS BEGIN TO
CLEAR OUT ON SUNDAY AND A WARMING TREND BEGINS. IT WILL BRING IN
SOME VERY MILD AIR FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...RISING TO AROUND +7C AT
H7 BY MONDAY...WHICH IS NEAR RECORD TERRITORY FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AT THE SURFACE THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S DURING THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT NO LONGER HAVE A SNOW PACK AND IN
AREAS WHERE THERE WILL BE AN AFTERNOON BREEZE.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD AND DRY DAY WILL PREVAIL EAST
OF THE DIVIDE ON TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN WILL SPREAD SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL TURN EAST ACROSS
WYOMING TUESDAY NIGHT SPREADING CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS MOST AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A DRIER NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
ALONG WITH COOLER...BUT STILL NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.


DISCUSSION...ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SLOWER THAN GFS KICKING
BAJA UPPER LOW NE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...E ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THAT IS UNTIL THE LATEST RUNS WHERE
ECMWF NOW IS FASTER AND LESS FRAGMENTED SWINGING REMNANTS OF SYSTEM
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE GFS IS NOW THE MORE FRAGMENTED
AND SLOWER MODEL...LAGGING MAIN COLD CORE BACK NEAR RENO 12Z
WEDNESDAY AND SHEARING OUT THIS SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  ECMWF SHOWS THE MOST OVERALL CONSISTENCY AND LESS
RADICAL CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.  FORECAST
SPEEDS UP A TAD THE SPREADING OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THIS SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT MOVES INTO STRONG DOWNSTREAM RIDGE...SO
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND COVERAGE SPOTTY WITH SNOW
LEVELS INITIALLY AROUND 8KFT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE WEST ON
TUESDAY...LOWERING TO 5-6KFT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

ECMWF HAS THIS SYSTEM MOVING OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY 00Z
THURSDAY WITH CLIPPER IN NORTHERN STREAM RACING SE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  THIS WILL PUT WYOMING IN NW CONFLUENT FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  24 HOURS
AGO...GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DROPPING A SECOND
CLIPPER INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE FRIDAY.  LATEST GFS SHOWS A
SHARPER UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST AND DRIVES AN ARCTIC BLAST
DOWN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.  ECMWF
CONTINUES TO KEEP THIS SYSTEM AND THE BULK OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS TO
OUR EAST OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.  CONFIDENCE IN AN ARCTIC
INTRUSION IS LOW AT THIS TIME WITH GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS
SIDING WITH A BROADER RIDGE OVER THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.
SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN WY WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT RAIN
MAY GET CLOSE TO THE CASPER AIRPORT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS AT KCPR AIRPORT TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A GUSTY WIND WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY
AFTER 17Z AND THIS WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE KBYG
AIRPORT WILL LIKELY SEE WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KNOTS.

AT THE KJAC AIRPORT LIGHT SNOW WILL FALL AT TIMES THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY
WITH VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH PRESSURE LOOMS TO THE WEST WHILE ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM RIPPLES
AROUND THE HIGH TODAY. IT WILL HAVE MINOR IMPACT ON THE AREA WITH
SOME INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME BREEZES IN MOST AREAS...WITH STRONG
WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE BUFFALO AREA. THE MOUNTAINS MAY SEE SOME SNOW
WITH A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN THE LOW
ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN CODY DISPATCH AND CASPER DISPATCH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND
EXPECTED TO LAST INTO NEXT WEEK. WE STILL CAN NOT GET MIXING HEIGHTS
UP TOO MUCH...ESPECIALLY IN LESS WIND PRONE AREAS. HOWEVER THERE
WILL BE SOME HIGH END POOR TO FAIR SMOKE DISPERSAL POSSIBLE
TODAY...EVEN IN THE LESS WINDY AREAS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ALLEN
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...PS
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN








000
FXUS65 KRIW 241820
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1120 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

A SWATH OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE ASSOCIATED
WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THERE ARE ALSO
SOME RETURNS ON THE BILLINGS RADAR BEGINNING TO SHOW AT THIS EARLY
HOUR THOUGH IT APPEARS AS THOUGH NOT MUCH IS REACHING THE SURFACE AS
DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE TEENS AND 20S. THIS AREA OF CLOUD COVER
IS ACTUALLY SEVERAL HOURS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE...SO WAS GENEROUS WITH
THE COVERAGE OF POPS THIS MORNING EVEN THOUGH NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED OUT OF THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY THIS FAR AHEAD OF THE
JET SUPPORT. OVERALL...FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR WEST AND TROUGHING TO OUR EAST. THERE
WILL BE A SHOT AT SOME MORE PRECIPITATION TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND IN THE NORTHERN BIGHORN BASIN AND JOHNSON
COUNTY. THERE IS SOME MODEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A JET OVERHEAD IN
ADDITION TO SOME ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...THOUGH THE SIGNATURE IS NOT
LOOKING AS PRONOUNCED IN RECENT MODEL RUNS...KEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH AS THAT SHOULD COVER THE EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS WAVE.

THERE IS SOME CONCERN OF A BRIEF WIND EVENT AROUND BUFFALO AND
PINEY CREEK AS FLOW ALIGNS TO THAT SWEET SPOT FOR THIS AREA...A FEW
WIND GUSTS COULD EXCEED 55MPH TODAY...700MB FLOW REMAINS STRONGER TO
THE NORTH AND EAST AND THE AREA OF CONCERN REMAINS IN A LESS FAVORED
POSITION FOR THE DOWNWARD FORCING NEEDED FOR A DAMAGING WIND
EVENT...NONETHELESS IT WILL BE A VERY WINDY DAY AROUND NORTHERN
JOHNSON COUNTY AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR ANY LAST MINUTE
PATTERN CHANGES THAT WOULD REQUIRE A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE
BUFFALO AREA. OTHERWISE...LEE SIDE TROUGHING HOLDS AT THE SURFACE WITH
DECENT MIXING OF MILD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
TODAY. MANY LOCATIONS EAST OF THE DIVIDE WILL BE VERY MILD WITH MANY
AREAS TOPPING OUT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

HEIGHTS WILL STEADILY RISE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED TO OUR WEST MIGRATES EAST. AS A RESULT...THINGS BEGIN TO
CLEAR OUT ON SUNDAY AND A WARMING TREND BEGINS. IT WILL BRING IN
SOME VERY MILD AIR FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...RISING TO AROUND +7C AT
H7 BY MONDAY...WHICH IS NEAR RECORD TERRITORY FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AT THE SURFACE THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S DURING THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT NO LONGER HAVE A SNOW PACK AND IN
AREAS WHERE THERE WILL BE AN AFTERNOON BREEZE.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD AND DRY DAY WILL PREVAIL EAST
OF THE DIVIDE ON TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN WILL SPREAD SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL TURN EAST ACROSS
WYOMING TUESDAY NIGHT SPREADING CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS MOST AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A DRIER NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
ALONG WITH COOLER...BUT STILL NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.


DISCUSSION...ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SLOWER THAN GFS KICKING
BAJA UPPER LOW NE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...E ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THAT IS UNTIL THE LATEST RUNS WHERE
ECMWF NOW IS FASTER AND LESS FRAGMENTED SWINGING REMNANTS OF SYSTEM
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE GFS IS NOW THE MORE FRAGMENTED
AND SLOWER MODEL...LAGGING MAIN COLD CORE BACK NEAR RENO 12Z
WEDNESDAY AND SHEARING OUT THIS SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  ECMWF SHOWS THE MOST OVERALL CONSISTENCY AND LESS
RADICAL CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.  FORECAST
SPEEDS UP A TAD THE SPREADING OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THIS SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT MOVES INTO STRONG DOWNSTREAM RIDGE...SO
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND COVERAGE SPOTTY WITH SNOW
LEVELS INITIALLY AROUND 8KFT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE WEST ON
TUESDAY...LOWERING TO 5-6KFT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

ECMWF HAS THIS SYSTEM MOVING OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY 00Z
THURSDAY WITH CLIPPER IN NORTHERN STREAM RACING SE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  THIS WILL PUT WYOMING IN NW CONFLUENT FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  24 HOURS
AGO...GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DROPPING A SECOND
CLIPPER INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE FRIDAY.  LATEST GFS SHOWS A
SHARPER UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST AND DRIVES AN ARCTIC BLAST
DOWN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.  ECMWF
CONTINUES TO KEEP THIS SYSTEM AND THE BULK OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS TO
OUR EAST OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.  CONFIDENCE IN AN ARCTIC
INTRUSION IS LOW AT THIS TIME WITH GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS
SIDING WITH A BROADER RIDGE OVER THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.
SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN WY WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT RAIN
MAY GET CLOSE TO THE CASPER AIRPORT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS AT KCPR AIRPORT TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A GUSTY WIND WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY
AFTER 17Z AND THIS WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE KBYG
AIRPORT WILL LIKELY SEE WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KNOTS.

AT THE KJAC AIRPORT LIGHT SNOW WILL FALL AT TIMES THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY
WITH VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH PRESSURE LOOMS TO THE WEST WHILE ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM RIPPLES
AROUND THE HIGH TODAY. IT WILL HAVE MINOR IMPACT ON THE AREA WITH
SOME INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME BREEZES IN MOST AREAS...WITH STRONG
WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE BUFFALO AREA. THE MOUNTAINS MAY SEE SOME SNOW
WITH A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN THE LOW
ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN CODY DISPATCH AND CASPER DISPATCH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND
EXPECTED TO LAST INTO NEXT WEEK. WE STILL CAN NOT GET MIXING HEIGHTS
UP TOO MUCH...ESPECIALLY IN LESS WIND PRONE AREAS. HOWEVER THERE
WILL BE SOME HIGH END POOR TO FAIR SMOKE DISPERSAL POSSIBLE
TODAY...EVEN IN THE LESS WINDY AREAS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ALLEN
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...PS
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN








000
FXUS63 KUNR 241737
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1037 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 229 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AB WITH TROUGH
INTO EASTERN WY AND COOL FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
NOTED ON WATER VAPOR OVER CENTRAL BC...MOVING SWIFTLY SOUTHEAST
ON 130KT JET STREAK CRASHING ONSHORE OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA. THIS
WAVE WILL BLAST INTO EASTERN SD THIS EVENING WITH THE SURFACE LOW
DROPPING INTO EASTERN ND. SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE WILL
TAP INTO LIMITED MOISTURE AND PRODUCE A BAND OF -SHRASN THIS
MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHWEST
SD. ACTIVITY WILL WANE THIS AFTERNOON ON THE PLAINS AS SUBSIDENCE
KICKS IN BEHIND SHORTWAVE/COOL FRONT. EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS WHERE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT MAY OCCUR. SNOW
AMOUNTS TOUGH GIVEN RATHER WARM BOUNDARY LAYER. MAIN STORY WILL BE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. 850MB WINDS
REACH 50KTS FROM K2WX TO KRAP WITH WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER THIS
AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ADVECTION/ISALLOBARIC FORCING NOT THAT
GREAT...BUT THINK SUBSIDENCE/MIXING WILL OVERCOME TO RESULT IN A
HIGH WIND WARNING WINDS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED CORRIDOR. WILL ALSO
EXPAND CURRENT WIND ADVISORY TO COVER ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF THE
SD PLAINS PER LATEST GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL MILD FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

TONIGHT/SUNDAY...SUBSIDENCE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER EXCEPT OVER
THE FAR WEST WHERE WEAK FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE-800MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
5-10F ABOVE NORMAL ON AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 229 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL IN AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK AND FLATTENING OUT
ACROSS THE PLAINS MIDWEEK. VERY MILD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S...WARMEST
OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS. AS THE RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN DURING MIDWEEK...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PUSH THROUGH...BRINGING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
MODELS DIVERGE SOME TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
GFS SHOWING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WOULD BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW AND ANOTHER SHOT OF
COLDER AIR FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SD PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COOL FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM K2WX TO KRAP...WHERE SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 50
KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS WILL SHIFT SOUTH BY MID AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MST /8 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ030-
     042>044-046-047-074.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012-
     013-026-031-072-073.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ014-025-032.

WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR WYZ071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...15






000
FXUS63 KUNR 241737
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1037 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 229 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AB WITH TROUGH
INTO EASTERN WY AND COOL FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
NOTED ON WATER VAPOR OVER CENTRAL BC...MOVING SWIFTLY SOUTHEAST
ON 130KT JET STREAK CRASHING ONSHORE OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA. THIS
WAVE WILL BLAST INTO EASTERN SD THIS EVENING WITH THE SURFACE LOW
DROPPING INTO EASTERN ND. SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE WILL
TAP INTO LIMITED MOISTURE AND PRODUCE A BAND OF -SHRASN THIS
MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHWEST
SD. ACTIVITY WILL WANE THIS AFTERNOON ON THE PLAINS AS SUBSIDENCE
KICKS IN BEHIND SHORTWAVE/COOL FRONT. EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS WHERE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT MAY OCCUR. SNOW
AMOUNTS TOUGH GIVEN RATHER WARM BOUNDARY LAYER. MAIN STORY WILL BE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. 850MB WINDS
REACH 50KTS FROM K2WX TO KRAP WITH WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER THIS
AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ADVECTION/ISALLOBARIC FORCING NOT THAT
GREAT...BUT THINK SUBSIDENCE/MIXING WILL OVERCOME TO RESULT IN A
HIGH WIND WARNING WINDS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED CORRIDOR. WILL ALSO
EXPAND CURRENT WIND ADVISORY TO COVER ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF THE
SD PLAINS PER LATEST GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL MILD FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

TONIGHT/SUNDAY...SUBSIDENCE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER EXCEPT OVER
THE FAR WEST WHERE WEAK FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE-800MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
5-10F ABOVE NORMAL ON AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 229 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL IN AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK AND FLATTENING OUT
ACROSS THE PLAINS MIDWEEK. VERY MILD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S...WARMEST
OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS. AS THE RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN DURING MIDWEEK...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PUSH THROUGH...BRINGING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
MODELS DIVERGE SOME TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
GFS SHOWING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WOULD BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW AND ANOTHER SHOT OF
COLDER AIR FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SD PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COOL FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM K2WX TO KRAP...WHERE SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 50
KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS WILL SHIFT SOUTH BY MID AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MST /8 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ030-
     042>044-046-047-074.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012-
     013-026-031-072-073.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ014-025-032.

WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR WYZ071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...15







000
FXUS65 KCYS 241726
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1020 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

WINDS SEEM TO BE HOLDING STEADY WITH GUSTS IN THE MID 50S NEAR
ARLINGTON AND IN THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS...SO WILL
MAINTAIN SPS HEADLINES FOR THESE LOCATIONS FOR NOW. WILL KEEP A
CLOSE EYE OUT FOR ANY SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS IN THE THICK CIRRUS DECK
AS THAT SITUATION COULD PROMOTE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO BRING
STRONGER GUSTS TO THE SURFACE...AND THUS A NEED FOR A SHORT FUSED
HIGH WIND WARNING. THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR BORDEAUX AREA
REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...TRENDS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THRU THE AFTERNOON AS THE WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH WINDS EASING AS A
RESULT. BUMPED UP POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE EASTERN
PLAINS...IN PARTICULAR THE PINE RIDGE AND LOCALES DOWNSTREAM OF
THE NORTH LARAMIE RANGE...BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND CURRENT OBS
DEPICTING LIGHT SHOWERS IN NORTHERN WY MOVING SOUTHEAST. PRECIP
TYPE SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT RAIN AS TEMPS WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE MID
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

WEST WINDS HAVE REALLY STARTED TO RAMP UP IN THE BORDEAUX AREA THIS
MORNING. RECENT HIGHWAY OBSERVATIONS HAVE ALREADY SHOWN A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 55 MPH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS HOVERING AROUND 40 MPH. THIS
IS A BIT EARLIER THAN EXPECTED AS GRADIENTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PEAK
UNTIL LATER THIS AM. THE NAM H85 CAG-CPR GRADIENT CONTINUES TO CLIMB
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH A MAX OF 64 METERS AROUND 12Z. WEST-TO-EAST
ORIENTED LLVL GRADIENTS MORE FAVORABLE FOR BORDEAUX REACH THEIR PEAK
AROUND 18Z. EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTN
IN THE RFQ OF A 130 KT H25 JET SHIFTING INTO WESTERN NE. STILL SOME
QUESTIONS AS MODELED DOWNWARD H85-H5 OMEGA NEVER SPREADS FAR ENOUGH
EAST TO ENCOMPASS BORDEAUX...BUT BELIEVE CURRENT WINDS WOULD BE LESS
IF THIS WAS A MAJOR INHIBITING FACTOR. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A HIGH
WIND WARNING FOR BORDEAUX AS 50-55 KT FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO STAY
INTACT ALONG WITH GRADIENTS ONLY GETTING STRONGER. OTHER WIND PRONE
AREAS WILL BE WINDY AS WELL...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT GUSTS TO BE A BIT
LESS WITH AN UNFAVORABLE ORIENTATION OF HEIGHT/MSLP GRADIENTS. WILL
NEED TO WATCH THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AS MIXING COULD
TAP INTO STRONGER FLOW ALOFT BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE. MAV GUIDANCE AS
WELL AS GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE A BIT CONCERNING FOR THE INTERSTATE
80 CORRIDOR OVER THE PLAINS AS WELL WITH 40 TO 50 KT FLOW AT THE TOP
OF THE MIXED LAYER AROUND MID AFTN. INCREASED WINDS...BUT DID NOT GO
AS STRONG AS THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST AS CLOUDS COULD AFFECT LLVL LAPSE
RATES.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP WAS INDICATIVE OF A STRONG MIDLVL
SHORTWAVE OVER ALBERTA/BRITISH COLUMBIA AT 09Z. GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE DEEPENING CONSIDERABLY AS IT DIVES
INTO NORTHERN NE BY 00Z SUN. THIS WILL ALSO DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE THIS AFTN. STILL A
FEW QUESTIONS WITH JUST HOW STRONG THIS FRONT WILL BE...AND WHETHER
IT WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. 00Z NAM SHOWS
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF...WHILE THE THE GFS AND ECMWF PAINT A
BAND OF VERY LIGHT QPF WITH GOOD FRONTOGENESIS. WILL SIDE TOWARD THE
GFS AS PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS EVIDENT UPSTREAM ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO BUMP UP POPS FOR ALL AREAS
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. IN EITHER CASE...THIS WILL
BE LOW IMPACT AS PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RAIN WITH THE WARM THERMAL
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE OVER THE CWA. THE MODELS SUGGEST HIGH-AMPLITUDE
RIDGING ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS ON SUN AND MON. LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGESTS A RECORD
HIGHS COULD BE THREATENED ON MON. H7 TEMPS COULD APPROACH 5-6 DEG C
AND MOST MOS GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID 60S
OVER THE PLAINS...SO EXPECT A VERY WARM AND PLEASANT DAY. A POSSIBLE
LIMITING FACTOR FOR TEMPS WILL BE ANY HIGH CLOUDS THAT MAY ACCOMPANY
THE RIDGE AXIS...BUT GFS H25 RH PROGS DO NOT SUGGEST THICKER CIRRUS
UNTIL WELL BEYOND PEAK HEATING. CONTINUED TO TREND WARMER FOR HIGHS
ON MON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

PRETTY NICE DAY TUESDAY WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
700MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM...GFS SHOWING +6 TO +7C...ECMWF A
LITTLE COOLER WITH +5C. REGARDLESS...TUESDAY SHOULD BE WARM AND
DRY WITH WIDESPREAD 60S EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND LOW TO MID
50S WEST. DID GO A LITTLE HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES.
GOING TO BE WINDY WEST WITH 700MB WINDS 40 TO 45KTS...SO
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE LARAMIE RANGE SHOULD HELP WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

HAVE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THAT
SHOULD BEGIN TO COOL THINGS OFF. GFS 700MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO -2
TO -4C WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GFS DRY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH WHILE THE ECMWF HAS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD QPF OFF TO
THE WEST IN CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES. DID INCREASE POPS OUT WEST
AND IN THE MOUNTAINS.

SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR...THE GFS HITTING US PRETTY HARD FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. QUICK MOVING THOUGH WITH PRECIP ENDING BY SATURDAY
MORNING. ECMWF HAS THIS SHORTWAVE PASSING OFF TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF OUR CWFA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH SUNDAY
THOUGH A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN WDLY SCTD
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 139 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...BUT ALL OTHER PARAMETERS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NON-CRITICAL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WYZ106.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJM
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...CLH




000
FXUS65 KCYS 241726
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1020 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

WINDS SEEM TO BE HOLDING STEADY WITH GUSTS IN THE MID 50S NEAR
ARLINGTON AND IN THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS...SO WILL
MAINTAIN SPS HEADLINES FOR THESE LOCATIONS FOR NOW. WILL KEEP A
CLOSE EYE OUT FOR ANY SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS IN THE THICK CIRRUS DECK
AS THAT SITUATION COULD PROMOTE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO BRING
STRONGER GUSTS TO THE SURFACE...AND THUS A NEED FOR A SHORT FUSED
HIGH WIND WARNING. THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR BORDEAUX AREA
REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...TRENDS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THRU THE AFTERNOON AS THE WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH WINDS EASING AS A
RESULT. BUMPED UP POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE EASTERN
PLAINS...IN PARTICULAR THE PINE RIDGE AND LOCALES DOWNSTREAM OF
THE NORTH LARAMIE RANGE...BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND CURRENT OBS
DEPICTING LIGHT SHOWERS IN NORTHERN WY MOVING SOUTHEAST. PRECIP
TYPE SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT RAIN AS TEMPS WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE MID
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

WEST WINDS HAVE REALLY STARTED TO RAMP UP IN THE BORDEAUX AREA THIS
MORNING. RECENT HIGHWAY OBSERVATIONS HAVE ALREADY SHOWN A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 55 MPH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS HOVERING AROUND 40 MPH. THIS
IS A BIT EARLIER THAN EXPECTED AS GRADIENTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PEAK
UNTIL LATER THIS AM. THE NAM H85 CAG-CPR GRADIENT CONTINUES TO CLIMB
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH A MAX OF 64 METERS AROUND 12Z. WEST-TO-EAST
ORIENTED LLVL GRADIENTS MORE FAVORABLE FOR BORDEAUX REACH THEIR PEAK
AROUND 18Z. EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTN
IN THE RFQ OF A 130 KT H25 JET SHIFTING INTO WESTERN NE. STILL SOME
QUESTIONS AS MODELED DOWNWARD H85-H5 OMEGA NEVER SPREADS FAR ENOUGH
EAST TO ENCOMPASS BORDEAUX...BUT BELIEVE CURRENT WINDS WOULD BE LESS
IF THIS WAS A MAJOR INHIBITING FACTOR. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A HIGH
WIND WARNING FOR BORDEAUX AS 50-55 KT FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO STAY
INTACT ALONG WITH GRADIENTS ONLY GETTING STRONGER. OTHER WIND PRONE
AREAS WILL BE WINDY AS WELL...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT GUSTS TO BE A BIT
LESS WITH AN UNFAVORABLE ORIENTATION OF HEIGHT/MSLP GRADIENTS. WILL
NEED TO WATCH THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AS MIXING COULD
TAP INTO STRONGER FLOW ALOFT BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE. MAV GUIDANCE AS
WELL AS GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE A BIT CONCERNING FOR THE INTERSTATE
80 CORRIDOR OVER THE PLAINS AS WELL WITH 40 TO 50 KT FLOW AT THE TOP
OF THE MIXED LAYER AROUND MID AFTN. INCREASED WINDS...BUT DID NOT GO
AS STRONG AS THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST AS CLOUDS COULD AFFECT LLVL LAPSE
RATES.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP WAS INDICATIVE OF A STRONG MIDLVL
SHORTWAVE OVER ALBERTA/BRITISH COLUMBIA AT 09Z. GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE DEEPENING CONSIDERABLY AS IT DIVES
INTO NORTHERN NE BY 00Z SUN. THIS WILL ALSO DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE THIS AFTN. STILL A
FEW QUESTIONS WITH JUST HOW STRONG THIS FRONT WILL BE...AND WHETHER
IT WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. 00Z NAM SHOWS
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF...WHILE THE THE GFS AND ECMWF PAINT A
BAND OF VERY LIGHT QPF WITH GOOD FRONTOGENESIS. WILL SIDE TOWARD THE
GFS AS PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS EVIDENT UPSTREAM ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO BUMP UP POPS FOR ALL AREAS
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. IN EITHER CASE...THIS WILL
BE LOW IMPACT AS PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RAIN WITH THE WARM THERMAL
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE OVER THE CWA. THE MODELS SUGGEST HIGH-AMPLITUDE
RIDGING ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS ON SUN AND MON. LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGESTS A RECORD
HIGHS COULD BE THREATENED ON MON. H7 TEMPS COULD APPROACH 5-6 DEG C
AND MOST MOS GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID 60S
OVER THE PLAINS...SO EXPECT A VERY WARM AND PLEASANT DAY. A POSSIBLE
LIMITING FACTOR FOR TEMPS WILL BE ANY HIGH CLOUDS THAT MAY ACCOMPANY
THE RIDGE AXIS...BUT GFS H25 RH PROGS DO NOT SUGGEST THICKER CIRRUS
UNTIL WELL BEYOND PEAK HEATING. CONTINUED TO TREND WARMER FOR HIGHS
ON MON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

PRETTY NICE DAY TUESDAY WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
700MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM...GFS SHOWING +6 TO +7C...ECMWF A
LITTLE COOLER WITH +5C. REGARDLESS...TUESDAY SHOULD BE WARM AND
DRY WITH WIDESPREAD 60S EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND LOW TO MID
50S WEST. DID GO A LITTLE HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES.
GOING TO BE WINDY WEST WITH 700MB WINDS 40 TO 45KTS...SO
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE LARAMIE RANGE SHOULD HELP WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

HAVE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THAT
SHOULD BEGIN TO COOL THINGS OFF. GFS 700MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO -2
TO -4C WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GFS DRY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH WHILE THE ECMWF HAS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD QPF OFF TO
THE WEST IN CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES. DID INCREASE POPS OUT WEST
AND IN THE MOUNTAINS.

SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR...THE GFS HITTING US PRETTY HARD FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. QUICK MOVING THOUGH WITH PRECIP ENDING BY SATURDAY
MORNING. ECMWF HAS THIS SHORTWAVE PASSING OFF TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF OUR CWFA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH SUNDAY
THOUGH A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN WDLY SCTD
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 139 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...BUT ALL OTHER PARAMETERS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NON-CRITICAL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WYZ106.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJM
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...CLH




000
FXUS65 KCYS 241726
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1020 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

WINDS SEEM TO BE HOLDING STEADY WITH GUSTS IN THE MID 50S NEAR
ARLINGTON AND IN THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS...SO WILL
MAINTAIN SPS HEADLINES FOR THESE LOCATIONS FOR NOW. WILL KEEP A
CLOSE EYE OUT FOR ANY SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS IN THE THICK CIRRUS DECK
AS THAT SITUATION COULD PROMOTE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO BRING
STRONGER GUSTS TO THE SURFACE...AND THUS A NEED FOR A SHORT FUSED
HIGH WIND WARNING. THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR BORDEAUX AREA
REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...TRENDS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THRU THE AFTERNOON AS THE WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH WINDS EASING AS A
RESULT. BUMPED UP POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE EASTERN
PLAINS...IN PARTICULAR THE PINE RIDGE AND LOCALES DOWNSTREAM OF
THE NORTH LARAMIE RANGE...BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND CURRENT OBS
DEPICTING LIGHT SHOWERS IN NORTHERN WY MOVING SOUTHEAST. PRECIP
TYPE SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT RAIN AS TEMPS WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE MID
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

WEST WINDS HAVE REALLY STARTED TO RAMP UP IN THE BORDEAUX AREA THIS
MORNING. RECENT HIGHWAY OBSERVATIONS HAVE ALREADY SHOWN A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 55 MPH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS HOVERING AROUND 40 MPH. THIS
IS A BIT EARLIER THAN EXPECTED AS GRADIENTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PEAK
UNTIL LATER THIS AM. THE NAM H85 CAG-CPR GRADIENT CONTINUES TO CLIMB
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH A MAX OF 64 METERS AROUND 12Z. WEST-TO-EAST
ORIENTED LLVL GRADIENTS MORE FAVORABLE FOR BORDEAUX REACH THEIR PEAK
AROUND 18Z. EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTN
IN THE RFQ OF A 130 KT H25 JET SHIFTING INTO WESTERN NE. STILL SOME
QUESTIONS AS MODELED DOWNWARD H85-H5 OMEGA NEVER SPREADS FAR ENOUGH
EAST TO ENCOMPASS BORDEAUX...BUT BELIEVE CURRENT WINDS WOULD BE LESS
IF THIS WAS A MAJOR INHIBITING FACTOR. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A HIGH
WIND WARNING FOR BORDEAUX AS 50-55 KT FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO STAY
INTACT ALONG WITH GRADIENTS ONLY GETTING STRONGER. OTHER WIND PRONE
AREAS WILL BE WINDY AS WELL...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT GUSTS TO BE A BIT
LESS WITH AN UNFAVORABLE ORIENTATION OF HEIGHT/MSLP GRADIENTS. WILL
NEED TO WATCH THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AS MIXING COULD
TAP INTO STRONGER FLOW ALOFT BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE. MAV GUIDANCE AS
WELL AS GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE A BIT CONCERNING FOR THE INTERSTATE
80 CORRIDOR OVER THE PLAINS AS WELL WITH 40 TO 50 KT FLOW AT THE TOP
OF THE MIXED LAYER AROUND MID AFTN. INCREASED WINDS...BUT DID NOT GO
AS STRONG AS THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST AS CLOUDS COULD AFFECT LLVL LAPSE
RATES.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP WAS INDICATIVE OF A STRONG MIDLVL
SHORTWAVE OVER ALBERTA/BRITISH COLUMBIA AT 09Z. GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE DEEPENING CONSIDERABLY AS IT DIVES
INTO NORTHERN NE BY 00Z SUN. THIS WILL ALSO DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE THIS AFTN. STILL A
FEW QUESTIONS WITH JUST HOW STRONG THIS FRONT WILL BE...AND WHETHER
IT WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. 00Z NAM SHOWS
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF...WHILE THE THE GFS AND ECMWF PAINT A
BAND OF VERY LIGHT QPF WITH GOOD FRONTOGENESIS. WILL SIDE TOWARD THE
GFS AS PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS EVIDENT UPSTREAM ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO BUMP UP POPS FOR ALL AREAS
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. IN EITHER CASE...THIS WILL
BE LOW IMPACT AS PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RAIN WITH THE WARM THERMAL
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE OVER THE CWA. THE MODELS SUGGEST HIGH-AMPLITUDE
RIDGING ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS ON SUN AND MON. LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGESTS A RECORD
HIGHS COULD BE THREATENED ON MON. H7 TEMPS COULD APPROACH 5-6 DEG C
AND MOST MOS GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID 60S
OVER THE PLAINS...SO EXPECT A VERY WARM AND PLEASANT DAY. A POSSIBLE
LIMITING FACTOR FOR TEMPS WILL BE ANY HIGH CLOUDS THAT MAY ACCOMPANY
THE RIDGE AXIS...BUT GFS H25 RH PROGS DO NOT SUGGEST THICKER CIRRUS
UNTIL WELL BEYOND PEAK HEATING. CONTINUED TO TREND WARMER FOR HIGHS
ON MON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

PRETTY NICE DAY TUESDAY WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
700MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM...GFS SHOWING +6 TO +7C...ECMWF A
LITTLE COOLER WITH +5C. REGARDLESS...TUESDAY SHOULD BE WARM AND
DRY WITH WIDESPREAD 60S EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND LOW TO MID
50S WEST. DID GO A LITTLE HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES.
GOING TO BE WINDY WEST WITH 700MB WINDS 40 TO 45KTS...SO
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE LARAMIE RANGE SHOULD HELP WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

HAVE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THAT
SHOULD BEGIN TO COOL THINGS OFF. GFS 700MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO -2
TO -4C WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GFS DRY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH WHILE THE ECMWF HAS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD QPF OFF TO
THE WEST IN CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES. DID INCREASE POPS OUT WEST
AND IN THE MOUNTAINS.

SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR...THE GFS HITTING US PRETTY HARD FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. QUICK MOVING THOUGH WITH PRECIP ENDING BY SATURDAY
MORNING. ECMWF HAS THIS SHORTWAVE PASSING OFF TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF OUR CWFA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH SUNDAY
THOUGH A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN WDLY SCTD
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 139 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...BUT ALL OTHER PARAMETERS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NON-CRITICAL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WYZ106.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJM
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...CLH




000
FXUS65 KCYS 241726
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1020 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

WINDS SEEM TO BE HOLDING STEADY WITH GUSTS IN THE MID 50S NEAR
ARLINGTON AND IN THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS...SO WILL
MAINTAIN SPS HEADLINES FOR THESE LOCATIONS FOR NOW. WILL KEEP A
CLOSE EYE OUT FOR ANY SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS IN THE THICK CIRRUS DECK
AS THAT SITUATION COULD PROMOTE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO BRING
STRONGER GUSTS TO THE SURFACE...AND THUS A NEED FOR A SHORT FUSED
HIGH WIND WARNING. THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR BORDEAUX AREA
REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...TRENDS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THRU THE AFTERNOON AS THE WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH WINDS EASING AS A
RESULT. BUMPED UP POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE EASTERN
PLAINS...IN PARTICULAR THE PINE RIDGE AND LOCALES DOWNSTREAM OF
THE NORTH LARAMIE RANGE...BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND CURRENT OBS
DEPICTING LIGHT SHOWERS IN NORTHERN WY MOVING SOUTHEAST. PRECIP
TYPE SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT RAIN AS TEMPS WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE MID
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

WEST WINDS HAVE REALLY STARTED TO RAMP UP IN THE BORDEAUX AREA THIS
MORNING. RECENT HIGHWAY OBSERVATIONS HAVE ALREADY SHOWN A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 55 MPH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS HOVERING AROUND 40 MPH. THIS
IS A BIT EARLIER THAN EXPECTED AS GRADIENTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PEAK
UNTIL LATER THIS AM. THE NAM H85 CAG-CPR GRADIENT CONTINUES TO CLIMB
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH A MAX OF 64 METERS AROUND 12Z. WEST-TO-EAST
ORIENTED LLVL GRADIENTS MORE FAVORABLE FOR BORDEAUX REACH THEIR PEAK
AROUND 18Z. EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTN
IN THE RFQ OF A 130 KT H25 JET SHIFTING INTO WESTERN NE. STILL SOME
QUESTIONS AS MODELED DOWNWARD H85-H5 OMEGA NEVER SPREADS FAR ENOUGH
EAST TO ENCOMPASS BORDEAUX...BUT BELIEVE CURRENT WINDS WOULD BE LESS
IF THIS WAS A MAJOR INHIBITING FACTOR. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A HIGH
WIND WARNING FOR BORDEAUX AS 50-55 KT FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO STAY
INTACT ALONG WITH GRADIENTS ONLY GETTING STRONGER. OTHER WIND PRONE
AREAS WILL BE WINDY AS WELL...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT GUSTS TO BE A BIT
LESS WITH AN UNFAVORABLE ORIENTATION OF HEIGHT/MSLP GRADIENTS. WILL
NEED TO WATCH THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AS MIXING COULD
TAP INTO STRONGER FLOW ALOFT BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE. MAV GUIDANCE AS
WELL AS GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE A BIT CONCERNING FOR THE INTERSTATE
80 CORRIDOR OVER THE PLAINS AS WELL WITH 40 TO 50 KT FLOW AT THE TOP
OF THE MIXED LAYER AROUND MID AFTN. INCREASED WINDS...BUT DID NOT GO
AS STRONG AS THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST AS CLOUDS COULD AFFECT LLVL LAPSE
RATES.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP WAS INDICATIVE OF A STRONG MIDLVL
SHORTWAVE OVER ALBERTA/BRITISH COLUMBIA AT 09Z. GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE DEEPENING CONSIDERABLY AS IT DIVES
INTO NORTHERN NE BY 00Z SUN. THIS WILL ALSO DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE THIS AFTN. STILL A
FEW QUESTIONS WITH JUST HOW STRONG THIS FRONT WILL BE...AND WHETHER
IT WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. 00Z NAM SHOWS
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF...WHILE THE THE GFS AND ECMWF PAINT A
BAND OF VERY LIGHT QPF WITH GOOD FRONTOGENESIS. WILL SIDE TOWARD THE
GFS AS PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS EVIDENT UPSTREAM ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO BUMP UP POPS FOR ALL AREAS
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. IN EITHER CASE...THIS WILL
BE LOW IMPACT AS PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RAIN WITH THE WARM THERMAL
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE OVER THE CWA. THE MODELS SUGGEST HIGH-AMPLITUDE
RIDGING ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS ON SUN AND MON. LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGESTS A RECORD
HIGHS COULD BE THREATENED ON MON. H7 TEMPS COULD APPROACH 5-6 DEG C
AND MOST MOS GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID 60S
OVER THE PLAINS...SO EXPECT A VERY WARM AND PLEASANT DAY. A POSSIBLE
LIMITING FACTOR FOR TEMPS WILL BE ANY HIGH CLOUDS THAT MAY ACCOMPANY
THE RIDGE AXIS...BUT GFS H25 RH PROGS DO NOT SUGGEST THICKER CIRRUS
UNTIL WELL BEYOND PEAK HEATING. CONTINUED TO TREND WARMER FOR HIGHS
ON MON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

PRETTY NICE DAY TUESDAY WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
700MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM...GFS SHOWING +6 TO +7C...ECMWF A
LITTLE COOLER WITH +5C. REGARDLESS...TUESDAY SHOULD BE WARM AND
DRY WITH WIDESPREAD 60S EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND LOW TO MID
50S WEST. DID GO A LITTLE HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES.
GOING TO BE WINDY WEST WITH 700MB WINDS 40 TO 45KTS...SO
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE LARAMIE RANGE SHOULD HELP WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

HAVE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THAT
SHOULD BEGIN TO COOL THINGS OFF. GFS 700MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO -2
TO -4C WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GFS DRY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH WHILE THE ECMWF HAS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD QPF OFF TO
THE WEST IN CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES. DID INCREASE POPS OUT WEST
AND IN THE MOUNTAINS.

SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR...THE GFS HITTING US PRETTY HARD FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. QUICK MOVING THOUGH WITH PRECIP ENDING BY SATURDAY
MORNING. ECMWF HAS THIS SHORTWAVE PASSING OFF TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF OUR CWFA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH SUNDAY
THOUGH A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN WDLY SCTD
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 139 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...BUT ALL OTHER PARAMETERS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NON-CRITICAL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WYZ106.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJM
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...CLH




000
FXUS65 KCYS 241720
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1020 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

WINDS SEEM TO BE HOLDING STEADY WITH GUSTS IN THE MID 50S NEAR
ARLINGTON AND IN THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS...SO WILL
MAINTAIN SPS HEADLINES FOR THESE LOCATIONS FOR NOW. WILL KEEP A
CLOSE EYE OUT FOR ANY SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS IN THE THICK CIRRUS DECK
AS THAT SITUATION COULD PROMOTE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO BRING
STRONGER GUSTS TO THE SURFACE...AND THUS A NEED FOR A SHORT FUSED
HIGH WIND WARNING. THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR BORDEAUX AREA
REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...TRENDS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THRU THE AFTERNOON AS THE WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH WINDS EASING AS A
RESULT. BUMPED UP POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE EASTERN
PLAINS...IN PARTICULAR THE PINE RIDGE AND LOCALES DOWNSTREAM OF
THE NORTH LARAMIE RANGE...BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND CURRENT OBS
DEPICTING LIGHT SHOWERS IN NORTHERN WY MOVING SOUTHEAST. PRECIP
TYPE SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT RAIN AS TEMPS WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE MID
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

WEST WINDS HAVE REALLY STARTED TO RAMP UP IN THE BORDEAUX AREA THIS
MORNING. RECENT HIGHWAY OBSERVATIONS HAVE ALREADY SHOWN A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 55 MPH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS HOVERING AROUND 40 MPH. THIS
IS A BIT EARLIER THAN EXPECTED AS GRADIENTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PEAK
UNTIL LATER THIS AM. THE NAM H85 CAG-CPR GRADIENT CONTINUES TO CLIMB
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH A MAX OF 64 METERS AROUND 12Z. WEST-TO-EAST
ORIENTED LLVL GRADIENTS MORE FAVORABLE FOR BORDEAUX REACH THEIR PEAK
AROUND 18Z. EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTN
IN THE RFQ OF A 130 KT H25 JET SHIFTING INTO WESTERN NE. STILL SOME
QUESTIONS AS MODELED DOWNWARD H85-H5 OMEGA NEVER SPREADS FAR ENOUGH
EAST TO ENCOMPASS BORDEAUX...BUT BELIEVE CURRENT WINDS WOULD BE LESS
IF THIS WAS A MAJOR INHIBITING FACTOR. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A HIGH
WIND WARNING FOR BORDEAUX AS 50-55 KT FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO STAY
INTACT ALONG WITH GRADIENTS ONLY GETTING STRONGER. OTHER WIND PRONE
AREAS WILL BE WINDY AS WELL...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT GUSTS TO BE A BIT
LESS WITH AN UNFAVORABLE ORIENTATION OF HEIGHT/MSLP GRADIENTS. WILL
NEED TO WATCH THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AS MIXING COULD
TAP INTO STRONGER FLOW ALOFT BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE. MAV GUIDANCE AS
WELL AS GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE A BIT CONCERNING FOR THE INTERSTATE
80 CORRIDOR OVER THE PLAINS AS WELL WITH 40 TO 50 KT FLOW AT THE TOP
OF THE MIXED LAYER AROUND MID AFTN. INCREASED WINDS...BUT DID NOT GO
AS STRONG AS THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST AS CLOUDS COULD AFFECT LLVL LAPSE
RATES.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP WAS INDICATIVE OF A STRONG MIDLVL
SHORTWAVE OVER ALBERTA/BRITISH COLUMBIA AT 09Z. GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE DEEPENING CONSIDERABLY AS IT DIVES
INTO NORTHERN NE BY 00Z SUN. THIS WILL ALSO DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE THIS AFTN. STILL A
FEW QUESTIONS WITH JUST HOW STRONG THIS FRONT WILL BE...AND WHETHER
IT WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. 00Z NAM SHOWS
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF...WHILE THE THE GFS AND ECMWF PAINT A
BAND OF VERY LIGHT QPF WITH GOOD FRONTOGENESIS. WILL SIDE TOWARD THE
GFS AS PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS EVIDENT UPSTREAM ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO BUMP UP POPS FOR ALL AREAS
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. IN EITHER CASE...THIS WILL
BE LOW IMPACT AS PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RAIN WITH THE WARM THERMAL
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE OVER THE CWA. THE MODELS SUGGEST HIGH-AMPLITUDE
RIDGING ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS ON SUN AND MON. LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGESTS A RECORD
HIGHS COULD BE THREATENED ON MON. H7 TEMPS COULD APPROACH 5-6 DEG C
AND MOST MOS GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID 60S
OVER THE PLAINS...SO EXPECT A VERY WARM AND PLEASANT DAY. A POSSIBLE
LIMITING FACTOR FOR TEMPS WILL BE ANY HIGH CLOUDS THAT MAY ACCOMPANY
THE RIDGE AXIS...BUT GFS H25 RH PROGS DO NOT SUGGEST THICKER CIRRUS
UNTIL WELL BEYOND PEAK HEATING. CONTINUED TO TREND WARMER FOR HIGHS
ON MON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

PRETTY NICE DAY TUESDAY WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
700MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM...GFS SHOWING +6 TO +7C...ECMWF A
LITTLE COOLER WITH +5C. REGARDLESS...TUESDAY SHOULD BE WARM AND
DRY WITH WIDESPREAD 60S EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND LOW TO MID
50S WEST. DID GO A LITTLE HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES.
GOING TO BE WINDY WEST WITH 700MB WINDS 40 TO 45KTS...SO
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE LARAMIE RANGE SHOULD HELP WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

HAVE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THAT
SHOULD BEGIN TO COOL THINGS OFF. GFS 700MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO -2
TO -4C WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GFS DRY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH WHILE THE ECMWF HAS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD QPF OFF TO
THE WEST IN CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES. DID INCREASE POPS OUT WEST
AND IN THE MOUNTAINS.

SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR...THE GFS HITTING US PRETTY HARD FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. QUICK MOVING THOUGH WITH PRECIP ENDING BY SATURDAY
MORNING. ECMWF HAS THIS SHORTWAVE PASSING OFF TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF OUR CWFA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. COULD SEE
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. REALLY HIT/MISS...SO CONTINUED VCSH WORDING IN TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 139 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...BUT ALL OTHER PARAMETERS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NON-CRITICAL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WYZ106.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJM
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...CLH




000
FXUS65 KCYS 241720
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1020 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

WINDS SEEM TO BE HOLDING STEADY WITH GUSTS IN THE MID 50S NEAR
ARLINGTON AND IN THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS...SO WILL
MAINTAIN SPS HEADLINES FOR THESE LOCATIONS FOR NOW. WILL KEEP A
CLOSE EYE OUT FOR ANY SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS IN THE THICK CIRRUS DECK
AS THAT SITUATION COULD PROMOTE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO BRING
STRONGER GUSTS TO THE SURFACE...AND THUS A NEED FOR A SHORT FUSED
HIGH WIND WARNING. THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR BORDEAUX AREA
REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...TRENDS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THRU THE AFTERNOON AS THE WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH WINDS EASING AS A
RESULT. BUMPED UP POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE EASTERN
PLAINS...IN PARTICULAR THE PINE RIDGE AND LOCALES DOWNSTREAM OF
THE NORTH LARAMIE RANGE...BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND CURRENT OBS
DEPICTING LIGHT SHOWERS IN NORTHERN WY MOVING SOUTHEAST. PRECIP
TYPE SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT RAIN AS TEMPS WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE MID
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

WEST WINDS HAVE REALLY STARTED TO RAMP UP IN THE BORDEAUX AREA THIS
MORNING. RECENT HIGHWAY OBSERVATIONS HAVE ALREADY SHOWN A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 55 MPH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS HOVERING AROUND 40 MPH. THIS
IS A BIT EARLIER THAN EXPECTED AS GRADIENTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PEAK
UNTIL LATER THIS AM. THE NAM H85 CAG-CPR GRADIENT CONTINUES TO CLIMB
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH A MAX OF 64 METERS AROUND 12Z. WEST-TO-EAST
ORIENTED LLVL GRADIENTS MORE FAVORABLE FOR BORDEAUX REACH THEIR PEAK
AROUND 18Z. EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTN
IN THE RFQ OF A 130 KT H25 JET SHIFTING INTO WESTERN NE. STILL SOME
QUESTIONS AS MODELED DOWNWARD H85-H5 OMEGA NEVER SPREADS FAR ENOUGH
EAST TO ENCOMPASS BORDEAUX...BUT BELIEVE CURRENT WINDS WOULD BE LESS
IF THIS WAS A MAJOR INHIBITING FACTOR. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A HIGH
WIND WARNING FOR BORDEAUX AS 50-55 KT FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO STAY
INTACT ALONG WITH GRADIENTS ONLY GETTING STRONGER. OTHER WIND PRONE
AREAS WILL BE WINDY AS WELL...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT GUSTS TO BE A BIT
LESS WITH AN UNFAVORABLE ORIENTATION OF HEIGHT/MSLP GRADIENTS. WILL
NEED TO WATCH THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AS MIXING COULD
TAP INTO STRONGER FLOW ALOFT BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE. MAV GUIDANCE AS
WELL AS GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE A BIT CONCERNING FOR THE INTERSTATE
80 CORRIDOR OVER THE PLAINS AS WELL WITH 40 TO 50 KT FLOW AT THE TOP
OF THE MIXED LAYER AROUND MID AFTN. INCREASED WINDS...BUT DID NOT GO
AS STRONG AS THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST AS CLOUDS COULD AFFECT LLVL LAPSE
RATES.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP WAS INDICATIVE OF A STRONG MIDLVL
SHORTWAVE OVER ALBERTA/BRITISH COLUMBIA AT 09Z. GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE DEEPENING CONSIDERABLY AS IT DIVES
INTO NORTHERN NE BY 00Z SUN. THIS WILL ALSO DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE THIS AFTN. STILL A
FEW QUESTIONS WITH JUST HOW STRONG THIS FRONT WILL BE...AND WHETHER
IT WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. 00Z NAM SHOWS
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF...WHILE THE THE GFS AND ECMWF PAINT A
BAND OF VERY LIGHT QPF WITH GOOD FRONTOGENESIS. WILL SIDE TOWARD THE
GFS AS PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS EVIDENT UPSTREAM ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO BUMP UP POPS FOR ALL AREAS
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. IN EITHER CASE...THIS WILL
BE LOW IMPACT AS PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RAIN WITH THE WARM THERMAL
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE OVER THE CWA. THE MODELS SUGGEST HIGH-AMPLITUDE
RIDGING ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS ON SUN AND MON. LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGESTS A RECORD
HIGHS COULD BE THREATENED ON MON. H7 TEMPS COULD APPROACH 5-6 DEG C
AND MOST MOS GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID 60S
OVER THE PLAINS...SO EXPECT A VERY WARM AND PLEASANT DAY. A POSSIBLE
LIMITING FACTOR FOR TEMPS WILL BE ANY HIGH CLOUDS THAT MAY ACCOMPANY
THE RIDGE AXIS...BUT GFS H25 RH PROGS DO NOT SUGGEST THICKER CIRRUS
UNTIL WELL BEYOND PEAK HEATING. CONTINUED TO TREND WARMER FOR HIGHS
ON MON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

PRETTY NICE DAY TUESDAY WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
700MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM...GFS SHOWING +6 TO +7C...ECMWF A
LITTLE COOLER WITH +5C. REGARDLESS...TUESDAY SHOULD BE WARM AND
DRY WITH WIDESPREAD 60S EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND LOW TO MID
50S WEST. DID GO A LITTLE HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES.
GOING TO BE WINDY WEST WITH 700MB WINDS 40 TO 45KTS...SO
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE LARAMIE RANGE SHOULD HELP WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

HAVE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THAT
SHOULD BEGIN TO COOL THINGS OFF. GFS 700MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO -2
TO -4C WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GFS DRY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH WHILE THE ECMWF HAS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD QPF OFF TO
THE WEST IN CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES. DID INCREASE POPS OUT WEST
AND IN THE MOUNTAINS.

SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR...THE GFS HITTING US PRETTY HARD FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. QUICK MOVING THOUGH WITH PRECIP ENDING BY SATURDAY
MORNING. ECMWF HAS THIS SHORTWAVE PASSING OFF TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF OUR CWFA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. COULD SEE
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. REALLY HIT/MISS...SO CONTINUED VCSH WORDING IN TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 139 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...BUT ALL OTHER PARAMETERS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NON-CRITICAL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WYZ106.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJM
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...CLH




000
FXUS65 KCYS 241720
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1020 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

WINDS SEEM TO BE HOLDING STEADY WITH GUSTS IN THE MID 50S NEAR
ARLINGTON AND IN THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS...SO WILL
MAINTAIN SPS HEADLINES FOR THESE LOCATIONS FOR NOW. WILL KEEP A
CLOSE EYE OUT FOR ANY SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS IN THE THICK CIRRUS DECK
AS THAT SITUATION COULD PROMOTE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO BRING
STRONGER GUSTS TO THE SURFACE...AND THUS A NEED FOR A SHORT FUSED
HIGH WIND WARNING. THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR BORDEAUX AREA
REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...TRENDS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THRU THE AFTERNOON AS THE WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH WINDS EASING AS A
RESULT. BUMPED UP POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE EASTERN
PLAINS...IN PARTICULAR THE PINE RIDGE AND LOCALES DOWNSTREAM OF
THE NORTH LARAMIE RANGE...BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND CURRENT OBS
DEPICTING LIGHT SHOWERS IN NORTHERN WY MOVING SOUTHEAST. PRECIP
TYPE SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT RAIN AS TEMPS WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE MID
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

WEST WINDS HAVE REALLY STARTED TO RAMP UP IN THE BORDEAUX AREA THIS
MORNING. RECENT HIGHWAY OBSERVATIONS HAVE ALREADY SHOWN A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 55 MPH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS HOVERING AROUND 40 MPH. THIS
IS A BIT EARLIER THAN EXPECTED AS GRADIENTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PEAK
UNTIL LATER THIS AM. THE NAM H85 CAG-CPR GRADIENT CONTINUES TO CLIMB
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH A MAX OF 64 METERS AROUND 12Z. WEST-TO-EAST
ORIENTED LLVL GRADIENTS MORE FAVORABLE FOR BORDEAUX REACH THEIR PEAK
AROUND 18Z. EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTN
IN THE RFQ OF A 130 KT H25 JET SHIFTING INTO WESTERN NE. STILL SOME
QUESTIONS AS MODELED DOWNWARD H85-H5 OMEGA NEVER SPREADS FAR ENOUGH
EAST TO ENCOMPASS BORDEAUX...BUT BELIEVE CURRENT WINDS WOULD BE LESS
IF THIS WAS A MAJOR INHIBITING FACTOR. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A HIGH
WIND WARNING FOR BORDEAUX AS 50-55 KT FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO STAY
INTACT ALONG WITH GRADIENTS ONLY GETTING STRONGER. OTHER WIND PRONE
AREAS WILL BE WINDY AS WELL...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT GUSTS TO BE A BIT
LESS WITH AN UNFAVORABLE ORIENTATION OF HEIGHT/MSLP GRADIENTS. WILL
NEED TO WATCH THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AS MIXING COULD
TAP INTO STRONGER FLOW ALOFT BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE. MAV GUIDANCE AS
WELL AS GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE A BIT CONCERNING FOR THE INTERSTATE
80 CORRIDOR OVER THE PLAINS AS WELL WITH 40 TO 50 KT FLOW AT THE TOP
OF THE MIXED LAYER AROUND MID AFTN. INCREASED WINDS...BUT DID NOT GO
AS STRONG AS THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST AS CLOUDS COULD AFFECT LLVL LAPSE
RATES.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP WAS INDICATIVE OF A STRONG MIDLVL
SHORTWAVE OVER ALBERTA/BRITISH COLUMBIA AT 09Z. GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE DEEPENING CONSIDERABLY AS IT DIVES
INTO NORTHERN NE BY 00Z SUN. THIS WILL ALSO DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE THIS AFTN. STILL A
FEW QUESTIONS WITH JUST HOW STRONG THIS FRONT WILL BE...AND WHETHER
IT WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. 00Z NAM SHOWS
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF...WHILE THE THE GFS AND ECMWF PAINT A
BAND OF VERY LIGHT QPF WITH GOOD FRONTOGENESIS. WILL SIDE TOWARD THE
GFS AS PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS EVIDENT UPSTREAM ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO BUMP UP POPS FOR ALL AREAS
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. IN EITHER CASE...THIS WILL
BE LOW IMPACT AS PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RAIN WITH THE WARM THERMAL
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE OVER THE CWA. THE MODELS SUGGEST HIGH-AMPLITUDE
RIDGING ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS ON SUN AND MON. LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGESTS A RECORD
HIGHS COULD BE THREATENED ON MON. H7 TEMPS COULD APPROACH 5-6 DEG C
AND MOST MOS GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID 60S
OVER THE PLAINS...SO EXPECT A VERY WARM AND PLEASANT DAY. A POSSIBLE
LIMITING FACTOR FOR TEMPS WILL BE ANY HIGH CLOUDS THAT MAY ACCOMPANY
THE RIDGE AXIS...BUT GFS H25 RH PROGS DO NOT SUGGEST THICKER CIRRUS
UNTIL WELL BEYOND PEAK HEATING. CONTINUED TO TREND WARMER FOR HIGHS
ON MON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

PRETTY NICE DAY TUESDAY WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
700MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM...GFS SHOWING +6 TO +7C...ECMWF A
LITTLE COOLER WITH +5C. REGARDLESS...TUESDAY SHOULD BE WARM AND
DRY WITH WIDESPREAD 60S EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND LOW TO MID
50S WEST. DID GO A LITTLE HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES.
GOING TO BE WINDY WEST WITH 700MB WINDS 40 TO 45KTS...SO
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE LARAMIE RANGE SHOULD HELP WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

HAVE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THAT
SHOULD BEGIN TO COOL THINGS OFF. GFS 700MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO -2
TO -4C WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GFS DRY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH WHILE THE ECMWF HAS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD QPF OFF TO
THE WEST IN CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES. DID INCREASE POPS OUT WEST
AND IN THE MOUNTAINS.

SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR...THE GFS HITTING US PRETTY HARD FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. QUICK MOVING THOUGH WITH PRECIP ENDING BY SATURDAY
MORNING. ECMWF HAS THIS SHORTWAVE PASSING OFF TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF OUR CWFA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. COULD SEE
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. REALLY HIT/MISS...SO CONTINUED VCSH WORDING IN TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 139 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...BUT ALL OTHER PARAMETERS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NON-CRITICAL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WYZ106.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJM
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...CLH




000
FXUS65 KCYS 241720
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1020 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

WINDS SEEM TO BE HOLDING STEADY WITH GUSTS IN THE MID 50S NEAR
ARLINGTON AND IN THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS...SO WILL
MAINTAIN SPS HEADLINES FOR THESE LOCATIONS FOR NOW. WILL KEEP A
CLOSE EYE OUT FOR ANY SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS IN THE THICK CIRRUS DECK
AS THAT SITUATION COULD PROMOTE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO BRING
STRONGER GUSTS TO THE SURFACE...AND THUS A NEED FOR A SHORT FUSED
HIGH WIND WARNING. THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR BORDEAUX AREA
REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...TRENDS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THRU THE AFTERNOON AS THE WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH WINDS EASING AS A
RESULT. BUMPED UP POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE EASTERN
PLAINS...IN PARTICULAR THE PINE RIDGE AND LOCALES DOWNSTREAM OF
THE NORTH LARAMIE RANGE...BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND CURRENT OBS
DEPICTING LIGHT SHOWERS IN NORTHERN WY MOVING SOUTHEAST. PRECIP
TYPE SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT RAIN AS TEMPS WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE MID
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

WEST WINDS HAVE REALLY STARTED TO RAMP UP IN THE BORDEAUX AREA THIS
MORNING. RECENT HIGHWAY OBSERVATIONS HAVE ALREADY SHOWN A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 55 MPH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS HOVERING AROUND 40 MPH. THIS
IS A BIT EARLIER THAN EXPECTED AS GRADIENTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PEAK
UNTIL LATER THIS AM. THE NAM H85 CAG-CPR GRADIENT CONTINUES TO CLIMB
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH A MAX OF 64 METERS AROUND 12Z. WEST-TO-EAST
ORIENTED LLVL GRADIENTS MORE FAVORABLE FOR BORDEAUX REACH THEIR PEAK
AROUND 18Z. EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTN
IN THE RFQ OF A 130 KT H25 JET SHIFTING INTO WESTERN NE. STILL SOME
QUESTIONS AS MODELED DOWNWARD H85-H5 OMEGA NEVER SPREADS FAR ENOUGH
EAST TO ENCOMPASS BORDEAUX...BUT BELIEVE CURRENT WINDS WOULD BE LESS
IF THIS WAS A MAJOR INHIBITING FACTOR. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A HIGH
WIND WARNING FOR BORDEAUX AS 50-55 KT FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO STAY
INTACT ALONG WITH GRADIENTS ONLY GETTING STRONGER. OTHER WIND PRONE
AREAS WILL BE WINDY AS WELL...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT GUSTS TO BE A BIT
LESS WITH AN UNFAVORABLE ORIENTATION OF HEIGHT/MSLP GRADIENTS. WILL
NEED TO WATCH THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AS MIXING COULD
TAP INTO STRONGER FLOW ALOFT BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE. MAV GUIDANCE AS
WELL AS GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE A BIT CONCERNING FOR THE INTERSTATE
80 CORRIDOR OVER THE PLAINS AS WELL WITH 40 TO 50 KT FLOW AT THE TOP
OF THE MIXED LAYER AROUND MID AFTN. INCREASED WINDS...BUT DID NOT GO
AS STRONG AS THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST AS CLOUDS COULD AFFECT LLVL LAPSE
RATES.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP WAS INDICATIVE OF A STRONG MIDLVL
SHORTWAVE OVER ALBERTA/BRITISH COLUMBIA AT 09Z. GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE DEEPENING CONSIDERABLY AS IT DIVES
INTO NORTHERN NE BY 00Z SUN. THIS WILL ALSO DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE THIS AFTN. STILL A
FEW QUESTIONS WITH JUST HOW STRONG THIS FRONT WILL BE...AND WHETHER
IT WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. 00Z NAM SHOWS
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF...WHILE THE THE GFS AND ECMWF PAINT A
BAND OF VERY LIGHT QPF WITH GOOD FRONTOGENESIS. WILL SIDE TOWARD THE
GFS AS PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS EVIDENT UPSTREAM ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO BUMP UP POPS FOR ALL AREAS
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. IN EITHER CASE...THIS WILL
BE LOW IMPACT AS PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RAIN WITH THE WARM THERMAL
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE OVER THE CWA. THE MODELS SUGGEST HIGH-AMPLITUDE
RIDGING ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS ON SUN AND MON. LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGESTS A RECORD
HIGHS COULD BE THREATENED ON MON. H7 TEMPS COULD APPROACH 5-6 DEG C
AND MOST MOS GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID 60S
OVER THE PLAINS...SO EXPECT A VERY WARM AND PLEASANT DAY. A POSSIBLE
LIMITING FACTOR FOR TEMPS WILL BE ANY HIGH CLOUDS THAT MAY ACCOMPANY
THE RIDGE AXIS...BUT GFS H25 RH PROGS DO NOT SUGGEST THICKER CIRRUS
UNTIL WELL BEYOND PEAK HEATING. CONTINUED TO TREND WARMER FOR HIGHS
ON MON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

PRETTY NICE DAY TUESDAY WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
700MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM...GFS SHOWING +6 TO +7C...ECMWF A
LITTLE COOLER WITH +5C. REGARDLESS...TUESDAY SHOULD BE WARM AND
DRY WITH WIDESPREAD 60S EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND LOW TO MID
50S WEST. DID GO A LITTLE HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES.
GOING TO BE WINDY WEST WITH 700MB WINDS 40 TO 45KTS...SO
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE LARAMIE RANGE SHOULD HELP WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

HAVE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THAT
SHOULD BEGIN TO COOL THINGS OFF. GFS 700MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO -2
TO -4C WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GFS DRY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH WHILE THE ECMWF HAS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD QPF OFF TO
THE WEST IN CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES. DID INCREASE POPS OUT WEST
AND IN THE MOUNTAINS.

SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR...THE GFS HITTING US PRETTY HARD FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. QUICK MOVING THOUGH WITH PRECIP ENDING BY SATURDAY
MORNING. ECMWF HAS THIS SHORTWAVE PASSING OFF TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF OUR CWFA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. COULD SEE
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. REALLY HIT/MISS...SO CONTINUED VCSH WORDING IN TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 139 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...BUT ALL OTHER PARAMETERS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NON-CRITICAL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WYZ106.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJM
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...CLH




000
FXUS65 KCYS 241149
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
449 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

WEST WINDS HAVE REALLY STARTED TO RAMP UP IN THE BORDEAUX AREA THIS
MORNING. RECENT HIGHWAY OBSERVATIONS HAVE ALREADY SHOWN A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 55 MPH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS HOVERING AROUND 40 MPH. THIS
IS A BIT EARLIER THAN EXPECTED AS GRADIENTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PEAK
UNTIL LATER THIS AM. THE NAM H85 CAG-CPR GRADIENT CONTINUES TO CLIMB
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH A MAX OF 64 METERS AROUND 12Z. WEST-TO-EAST
ORIENTED LLVL GRADIENTS MORE FAVORABLE FOR BORDEAUX REACH THEIR PEAK
AROUND 18Z. EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTN
IN THE RFQ OF A 130 KT H25 JET SHIFTING INTO WESTERN NE. STILL SOME
QUESTIONS AS MODELED DOWNWARD H85-H5 OMEGA NEVER SPREADS FAR ENOUGH
EAST TO ENCOMPASS BORDEAUX...BUT BELIEVE CURRENT WINDS WOULD BE LESS
IF THIS WAS A MAJOR INHIBITING FACTOR. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A HIGH
WIND WARNING FOR BORDEAUX AS 50-55 KT FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO STAY
INTACT ALONG WITH GRADIENTS ONLY GETTING STRONGER. OTHER WIND PRONE
AREAS WILL BE WINDY AS WELL...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT GUSTS TO BE A BIT
LESS WITH AN UNFAVORABLE ORIENTATION OF HEIGHT/MSLP GRADIENTS. WILL
NEED TO WATCH THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AS MIXING COULD
TAP INTO STRONGER FLOW ALOFT BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE. MAV GUIDANCE AS
WELL AS GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE A BIT CONCERNING FOR THE INTERSTATE
80 CORRIDOR OVER THE PLAINS AS WELL WITH 40 TO 50 KT FLOW AT THE TOP
OF THE MIXED LAYER AROUND MID AFTN. INCREASED WINDS...BUT DID NOT GO
AS STRONG AS THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST AS CLOUDS COULD AFFECT LLVL LAPSE
RATES.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP WAS INDICATIVE OF A STRONG MIDLVL
SHORTWAVE OVER ALBERTA/BRITISH COLUMBIA AT 09Z. GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE DEEPENING CONSIDERABLY AS IT DIVES
INTO NORTHERN NE BY 00Z SUN. THIS WILL ALSO DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE THIS AFTN. STILL A
FEW QUESTIONS WITH JUST HOW STRONG THIS FRONT WILL BE...AND WHETHER
IT WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. 00Z NAM SHOWS
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF...WHILE THE THE GFS AND ECMWF PAINT A
BAND OF VERY LIGHT QPF WITH GOOD FRONTOGENESIS. WILL SIDE TOWARD THE
GFS AS PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS EVIDENT UPSTREAM ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO BUMP UP POPS FOR ALL AREAS
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. IN EITHER CASE...THIS WILL
BE LOW IMPACT AS PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RAIN WITH THE WARM THERMAL
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE OVER THE CWA. THE MODELS SUGGEST HIGH-AMPLITUDE
RIDGING ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS ON SUN AND MON. LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGESTS A RECORD
HIGHS COULD BE THREATENED ON MON. H7 TEMPS COULD APPROACH 5-6 DEG C
AND MOST MOS GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID 60S
OVER THE PLAINS...SO EXPECT A VERY WARM AND PLEASANT DAY. A POSSIBLE
LIMITING FACTOR FOR TEMPS WILL BE ANY HIGH CLOUDS THAT MAY ACCOMPANY
THE RIDGE AXIS...BUT GFS H25 RH PROGS DO NOT SUGGEST THICKER CIRRUS
UNTIL WELL BEYOND PEAK HEATING. CONTINUED TO TREND WARMER FOR HIGHS
ON MON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

PRETTY NICE DAY TUESDAY WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
700MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM...GFS SHOWING +6 TO +7C...ECMWF A
LITTLE COOLER WITH +5C. REGARDLESS...TUESDAY SHOULD BE WARM AND
DRY WITH WIDESPREAD 60S EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND LOW TO MID
50S WEST. DID GO A LITTLE HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES.
GOING TO BE WINDY WEST WITH 700MB WINDS 40 TO 45KTS...SO
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE LARAMIE RANGE SHOULD HELP WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

HAVE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THAT
SHOULD BEGIN TO COOL THINGS OFF. GFS 700MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO -2
TO -4C WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GFS DRY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH WHILE THE ECMWF HAS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD QPF OFF TO
THE WEST IN CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES. DID INCREASE POPS OUT WEST
AND IN THE MOUNTAINS.

SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR...THE GFS HITTING US PRETTY HARD FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. QUICK MOVING THOUGH WITH PRECIP ENDING BY SATURDAY
MORNING. ECMWF HAS THIS SHORTWAVE PASSING OFF TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF OUR CWFA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. COULD SEE
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. REALLY HIT/MISS...SO CONTINUED VCSH WORDING IN TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 139 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...BUT ALL OTHER PARAMETERS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NON-CRITICAL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WYZ106.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...CLH



000
FXUS65 KCYS 241149
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
449 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

WEST WINDS HAVE REALLY STARTED TO RAMP UP IN THE BORDEAUX AREA THIS
MORNING. RECENT HIGHWAY OBSERVATIONS HAVE ALREADY SHOWN A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 55 MPH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS HOVERING AROUND 40 MPH. THIS
IS A BIT EARLIER THAN EXPECTED AS GRADIENTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PEAK
UNTIL LATER THIS AM. THE NAM H85 CAG-CPR GRADIENT CONTINUES TO CLIMB
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH A MAX OF 64 METERS AROUND 12Z. WEST-TO-EAST
ORIENTED LLVL GRADIENTS MORE FAVORABLE FOR BORDEAUX REACH THEIR PEAK
AROUND 18Z. EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTN
IN THE RFQ OF A 130 KT H25 JET SHIFTING INTO WESTERN NE. STILL SOME
QUESTIONS AS MODELED DOWNWARD H85-H5 OMEGA NEVER SPREADS FAR ENOUGH
EAST TO ENCOMPASS BORDEAUX...BUT BELIEVE CURRENT WINDS WOULD BE LESS
IF THIS WAS A MAJOR INHIBITING FACTOR. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A HIGH
WIND WARNING FOR BORDEAUX AS 50-55 KT FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO STAY
INTACT ALONG WITH GRADIENTS ONLY GETTING STRONGER. OTHER WIND PRONE
AREAS WILL BE WINDY AS WELL...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT GUSTS TO BE A BIT
LESS WITH AN UNFAVORABLE ORIENTATION OF HEIGHT/MSLP GRADIENTS. WILL
NEED TO WATCH THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AS MIXING COULD
TAP INTO STRONGER FLOW ALOFT BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE. MAV GUIDANCE AS
WELL AS GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE A BIT CONCERNING FOR THE INTERSTATE
80 CORRIDOR OVER THE PLAINS AS WELL WITH 40 TO 50 KT FLOW AT THE TOP
OF THE MIXED LAYER AROUND MID AFTN. INCREASED WINDS...BUT DID NOT GO
AS STRONG AS THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST AS CLOUDS COULD AFFECT LLVL LAPSE
RATES.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP WAS INDICATIVE OF A STRONG MIDLVL
SHORTWAVE OVER ALBERTA/BRITISH COLUMBIA AT 09Z. GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE DEEPENING CONSIDERABLY AS IT DIVES
INTO NORTHERN NE BY 00Z SUN. THIS WILL ALSO DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE THIS AFTN. STILL A
FEW QUESTIONS WITH JUST HOW STRONG THIS FRONT WILL BE...AND WHETHER
IT WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. 00Z NAM SHOWS
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF...WHILE THE THE GFS AND ECMWF PAINT A
BAND OF VERY LIGHT QPF WITH GOOD FRONTOGENESIS. WILL SIDE TOWARD THE
GFS AS PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS EVIDENT UPSTREAM ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO BUMP UP POPS FOR ALL AREAS
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. IN EITHER CASE...THIS WILL
BE LOW IMPACT AS PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RAIN WITH THE WARM THERMAL
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE OVER THE CWA. THE MODELS SUGGEST HIGH-AMPLITUDE
RIDGING ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS ON SUN AND MON. LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGESTS A RECORD
HIGHS COULD BE THREATENED ON MON. H7 TEMPS COULD APPROACH 5-6 DEG C
AND MOST MOS GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID 60S
OVER THE PLAINS...SO EXPECT A VERY WARM AND PLEASANT DAY. A POSSIBLE
LIMITING FACTOR FOR TEMPS WILL BE ANY HIGH CLOUDS THAT MAY ACCOMPANY
THE RIDGE AXIS...BUT GFS H25 RH PROGS DO NOT SUGGEST THICKER CIRRUS
UNTIL WELL BEYOND PEAK HEATING. CONTINUED TO TREND WARMER FOR HIGHS
ON MON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

PRETTY NICE DAY TUESDAY WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
700MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM...GFS SHOWING +6 TO +7C...ECMWF A
LITTLE COOLER WITH +5C. REGARDLESS...TUESDAY SHOULD BE WARM AND
DRY WITH WIDESPREAD 60S EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND LOW TO MID
50S WEST. DID GO A LITTLE HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES.
GOING TO BE WINDY WEST WITH 700MB WINDS 40 TO 45KTS...SO
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE LARAMIE RANGE SHOULD HELP WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

HAVE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THAT
SHOULD BEGIN TO COOL THINGS OFF. GFS 700MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO -2
TO -4C WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GFS DRY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH WHILE THE ECMWF HAS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD QPF OFF TO
THE WEST IN CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES. DID INCREASE POPS OUT WEST
AND IN THE MOUNTAINS.

SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR...THE GFS HITTING US PRETTY HARD FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. QUICK MOVING THOUGH WITH PRECIP ENDING BY SATURDAY
MORNING. ECMWF HAS THIS SHORTWAVE PASSING OFF TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF OUR CWFA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. COULD SEE
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. REALLY HIT/MISS...SO CONTINUED VCSH WORDING IN TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 139 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...BUT ALL OTHER PARAMETERS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NON-CRITICAL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WYZ106.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...CLH




000
FXUS63 KUNR 241130
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
430 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 229 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AB WITH TROUGH
INTO EASTERN WY AND COOL FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
NOTED ON WATER VAPOUR OVER CENTRAL BC...MOVING SWIFTLY SOUTHEAST
ON 130KT JET STREAK CRASHING ONSHORE OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA. THIS
WAVE WILL BLAST INTO EASTERN SD THIS EVENING WITH THE SURFACE LOW
DROPPING INTO EASTERN ND. SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE WILL
TAP INTO LIMITED MOISTURE AND PRODUCE A BAND OF -SHRASN THIS
MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHWEST
SD. ACTIVITY WILL WANE THIS AFTERNOON ON THE PLAINS AS SUBSIDENCE
KICKS IN BEHIND SHORTWAVE/COOL FRONT. EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS WHERE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT MAY OCCUR. SNOW
AMOUNTS TOUGH GIVEN RATHER WARM BOUNDARY LAYER. MAIN STORY WILL BE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. 850MB WINDS
REACH 50KTS FROM K2WX TO KRAP WITH WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER THIS
AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ADVECTION/ISALLOBARIC FORCING NOT THAT
GREAT...BUT THINK SUBSIDENCE/MIXING WILL OVERCOME TO RESULT IN A
HIGH WIND WARNING WINDS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED CORRIDOR. WILL ALSO
EXPAND CURRENT WIND ADVISORY TO COVER ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF THE
SD PLAINS PER LATEST GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL MILD FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

TONIGHT/SUNDAY...SUBSIDENCE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER EXCEPT OVER
THE FAR WEST WHERE WEAK FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE-800MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
5-10F ABOVE NORMAL ON AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 229 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL IN AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK AND FLATTENING OUT
ACROSS THE PLAINS MIDWEEK. VERY MILD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S...WARMEST
OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS. AS THE RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN DURING MIDWEEK...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PUSH THROUGH...BRINGING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
MODELS DIVERGE SOME TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
GFS SHOWING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WOULD BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW AND ANOTHER SHOT OF
COLDER AIR FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 430 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SD PLAINS THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS A COOL FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM K2WX TO KRAP...WHERE SOME
GUSTS TO NEAR 50 KT ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED TODAY. AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND NORTHWEST SD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON MST /1 PM CST/ TODAY TO 7 PM MST /8 PM
     CST/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ030-042>044-046-047-074.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS
     EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012-013-026-031-072-073.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS EVENING
     FOR SDZ014-025-032.

WY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS
     EVENING FOR WYZ071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26






000
FXUS63 KUNR 241130
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
430 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 229 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AB WITH TROUGH
INTO EASTERN WY AND COOL FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
NOTED ON WATER VAPOUR OVER CENTRAL BC...MOVING SWIFTLY SOUTHEAST
ON 130KT JET STREAK CRASHING ONSHORE OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA. THIS
WAVE WILL BLAST INTO EASTERN SD THIS EVENING WITH THE SURFACE LOW
DROPPING INTO EASTERN ND. SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE WILL
TAP INTO LIMITED MOISTURE AND PRODUCE A BAND OF -SHRASN THIS
MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHWEST
SD. ACTIVITY WILL WANE THIS AFTERNOON ON THE PLAINS AS SUBSIDENCE
KICKS IN BEHIND SHORTWAVE/COOL FRONT. EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS WHERE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT MAY OCCUR. SNOW
AMOUNTS TOUGH GIVEN RATHER WARM BOUNDARY LAYER. MAIN STORY WILL BE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. 850MB WINDS
REACH 50KTS FROM K2WX TO KRAP WITH WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER THIS
AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ADVECTION/ISALLOBARIC FORCING NOT THAT
GREAT...BUT THINK SUBSIDENCE/MIXING WILL OVERCOME TO RESULT IN A
HIGH WIND WARNING WINDS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED CORRIDOR. WILL ALSO
EXPAND CURRENT WIND ADVISORY TO COVER ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF THE
SD PLAINS PER LATEST GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL MILD FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

TONIGHT/SUNDAY...SUBSIDENCE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER EXCEPT OVER
THE FAR WEST WHERE WEAK FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE-800MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
5-10F ABOVE NORMAL ON AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 229 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL IN AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK AND FLATTENING OUT
ACROSS THE PLAINS MIDWEEK. VERY MILD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S...WARMEST
OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS. AS THE RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN DURING MIDWEEK...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PUSH THROUGH...BRINGING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
MODELS DIVERGE SOME TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
GFS SHOWING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WOULD BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW AND ANOTHER SHOT OF
COLDER AIR FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 430 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SD PLAINS THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS A COOL FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM K2WX TO KRAP...WHERE SOME
GUSTS TO NEAR 50 KT ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED TODAY. AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND NORTHWEST SD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON MST /1 PM CST/ TODAY TO 7 PM MST /8 PM
     CST/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ030-042>044-046-047-074.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS
     EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012-013-026-031-072-073.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS EVENING
     FOR SDZ014-025-032.

WY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS
     EVENING FOR WYZ071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26







000
FXUS65 KRIW 240949
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
249 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

A SWATH OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE ASSOCIATED
WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THERE ARE ALSO
SOME RETURNS ON THE BILLINGS RADAR BEGINNING TO SHOW AT THIS EARLY
HOUR THOUGH IT APPEARS AS THOUGH NOT MUCH IS REACHING THE SURFACE AS
DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE TEENS AND 20S. THIS AREA OF CLOUD COVER
IS ACTUALLY SEVERAL HOURS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE...SO WAS GENEROUS WITH
THE COVERAGE OF POPS THIS MORNING EVEN THOUGH NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED OUT OF THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY THIS FAR AHEAD OF THE
JET SUPPORT. OVERALL...FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR WEST AND TROUGHING TO OUR EAST. THERE
WILL BE A SHOT AT SOME MORE PRECIPITATION TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND IN THE NORTHERN BIGHORN BASIN AND JOHNSON
COUNTY. THERE IS SOME MODEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A JET OVERHEAD IN
ADDITION TO SOME ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...THOUGH THE SIGNATURE IS NOT
LOOKING AS PRONOUNCED IN RECENT MODEL RUNS...KEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH AS THAT SHOULD COVER THE EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS WAVE.

THERE IS SOME CONCERN OF A BRIEF WIND EVENT AROUND BUFFALO AND
PINEY CREEK AS FLOW ALIGNS TO THAT SWEET SPOT FOR THIS AREA...A FEW
WIND GUSTS COULD EXCEED 55MPH TODAY...700MB FLOW REMAINS STRONGER TO
THE NORTH AND EAST AND THE AREA OF CONCERN REMAINS IN A LESS FAVORED
POSITION FOR THE DOWNWARD FORCING NEEDED FOR A DAMAGING WIND
EVENT...NONETHELESS IT WILL BE A VERY WINDY DAY AROUND NORTHERN
JOHNSON COUNTY AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR ANY LAST MINUTE
PATTERN CHANGES THAT WOULD REQUIRE A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE
BUFFALO AREA. OTHERWISE...LEE SIDE TROUGHING HOLDS AT THE SURFACE WITH
DECENT MIXING OF MILD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
TODAY. MANY LOCATIONS EAST OF THE DIVIDE WILL BE VERY MILD WITH MANY
AREAS TOPPING OUT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

HEIGHTS WILL STEADILY RISE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED TO OUR WEST MIGRATES EAST. AS A RESULT...THINGS BEGIN TO
CLEAR OUT ON SUNDAY AND A WARMING TREND BEGINS. IT WILL BRING IN
SOME VERY MILD AIR FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...RISING TO AROUND +7C AT
H7 BY MONDAY...WHICH IS NEAR RECORD TERRITORY FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AT THE SURFACE THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S DURING THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT NO LONGER HAVE A SNOW PACK AND IN
AREAS WHERE THERE WILL BE AN AFTERNOON BREEZE.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD AND DRY DAY WILL PREVAIL EAST
OF THE DIVIDE ON TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN WILL SPREAD SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL TURN EAST ACROSS
WYOMING TUESDAY NIGHT SPREADING CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS MOST AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A DRIER NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
ALONG WITH COOLER...BUT STILL NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.


DISCUSSION...ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SLOWER THAN GFS KICKING
BAJA UPPER LOW NE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...E ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THAT IS UNTIL THE LATEST RUNS WHERE
ECMWF NOW IS FASTER AND LESS FRAGMENTED SWINGING REMNANTS OF SYSTEM
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE GFS IS NOW THE MORE FRAGMENTED
AND SLOWER MODEL...LAGGING MAIN COLD CORE BACK NEAR RENO 12Z
WEDNESDAY AND SHEARING OUT THIS SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  ECMWF SHOWS THE MOST OVERALL CONSISTENCY AND LESS
RADICAL CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.  FORECAST
SPEEDS UP A TAD THE SPREADING OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THIS SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT MOVES INTO STRONG DOWNSTREAM RIDGE...SO
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND COVERAGE SPOTTY WITH SNOW
LEVELS INITIALLY AROUND 8KFT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE WEST ON
TUESDAY...LOWERING TO 5-6KFT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

ECMWF HAS THIS SYSTEM MOVING OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY 00Z
THURSDAY WITH CLIPPER IN NORTHERN STREAM RACING SE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  THIS WILL PUT WYOMING IN NW CONFLUENT FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  24 HOURS
AGO...GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DROPPING A SECOND
CLIPPER INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE FRIDAY.  LATEST GFS SHOWS A
SHARPER UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST AND DRIVES AN ARCTIC BLAST
DOWN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.  ECMWF
CONTINUES TO KEEP THIS SYSTEM AND THE BULK OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS TO
OUR EAST OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.  CONFIDENCE IN AN ARCTIC
INTRUSION IS LOW AT THIS TIME WITH GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS
SIDING WITH A BROADER RIDGE OVER THE WEST.



&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

PATCHY FOG IN THE BASINS AND VALLEYS UNTIL AROUND 16Z. EXPECT LOCAL
IFR CONDITIONS IMPACTING KJAC...KBPI...KPNA...KRIW AND KWRL.

A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS. SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN WY WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. SNOW MAY
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN AFTER 19Z AS WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THOSE
AREAS. LIGHT RAIN MAY GET CLOSE TO THE CASPER AIRPORT IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS AT KCPR
AIRPORT TODAY AND TONIGHT. A GUSTY WIND WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN
JOHNSON COUNTY AFTER 17Z AND THIS WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE KBYG AIRPORT WILL LIKELY SEE WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KNOTS.

AT THE KJAC AIRPORT LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP AROUND 16Z AND CONTINUE
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY WITH VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH PRESSURE LOOMS TO THE WEST WHILE ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM RIPPLES
AROUND THE HIGH TODAY. IT WILL HAVE MINOR IMPACT ON THE AREA WITH
SOME INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME BREEZES IN MOST AREAS...WITH STRONG
WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE BUFFALO AREA. THE MOUNTAINS MAY SEE SOME SNOW
WITH A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN THE LOW
ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN CODY DISPATCH AND CASPER DISPATCH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND
EXPECTED TO LAST INTO NEXT WEEK. WE STILL CAN NOT GET MIXING HEIGHTS
UP TOO MUCH...ESPECIALLY IN LESS WIND PRONE AREAS. HOWEVER THERE
WILL BE SOME HIGH END POOR TO FAIR SMOKE DISPERSAL POSSIBLE
TODAY...EVEN IN THE LESS WINDY AREAS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ALLEN
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN








000
FXUS65 KRIW 240949
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
249 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

A SWATH OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE ASSOCIATED
WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THERE ARE ALSO
SOME RETURNS ON THE BILLINGS RADAR BEGINNING TO SHOW AT THIS EARLY
HOUR THOUGH IT APPEARS AS THOUGH NOT MUCH IS REACHING THE SURFACE AS
DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE TEENS AND 20S. THIS AREA OF CLOUD COVER
IS ACTUALLY SEVERAL HOURS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE...SO WAS GENEROUS WITH
THE COVERAGE OF POPS THIS MORNING EVEN THOUGH NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED OUT OF THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY THIS FAR AHEAD OF THE
JET SUPPORT. OVERALL...FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR WEST AND TROUGHING TO OUR EAST. THERE
WILL BE A SHOT AT SOME MORE PRECIPITATION TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND IN THE NORTHERN BIGHORN BASIN AND JOHNSON
COUNTY. THERE IS SOME MODEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A JET OVERHEAD IN
ADDITION TO SOME ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...THOUGH THE SIGNATURE IS NOT
LOOKING AS PRONOUNCED IN RECENT MODEL RUNS...KEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH AS THAT SHOULD COVER THE EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS WAVE.

THERE IS SOME CONCERN OF A BRIEF WIND EVENT AROUND BUFFALO AND
PINEY CREEK AS FLOW ALIGNS TO THAT SWEET SPOT FOR THIS AREA...A FEW
WIND GUSTS COULD EXCEED 55MPH TODAY...700MB FLOW REMAINS STRONGER TO
THE NORTH AND EAST AND THE AREA OF CONCERN REMAINS IN A LESS FAVORED
POSITION FOR THE DOWNWARD FORCING NEEDED FOR A DAMAGING WIND
EVENT...NONETHELESS IT WILL BE A VERY WINDY DAY AROUND NORTHERN
JOHNSON COUNTY AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR ANY LAST MINUTE
PATTERN CHANGES THAT WOULD REQUIRE A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE
BUFFALO AREA. OTHERWISE...LEE SIDE TROUGHING HOLDS AT THE SURFACE WITH
DECENT MIXING OF MILD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
TODAY. MANY LOCATIONS EAST OF THE DIVIDE WILL BE VERY MILD WITH MANY
AREAS TOPPING OUT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

HEIGHTS WILL STEADILY RISE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED TO OUR WEST MIGRATES EAST. AS A RESULT...THINGS BEGIN TO
CLEAR OUT ON SUNDAY AND A WARMING TREND BEGINS. IT WILL BRING IN
SOME VERY MILD AIR FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...RISING TO AROUND +7C AT
H7 BY MONDAY...WHICH IS NEAR RECORD TERRITORY FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AT THE SURFACE THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S DURING THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT NO LONGER HAVE A SNOW PACK AND IN
AREAS WHERE THERE WILL BE AN AFTERNOON BREEZE.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD AND DRY DAY WILL PREVAIL EAST
OF THE DIVIDE ON TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN WILL SPREAD SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL TURN EAST ACROSS
WYOMING TUESDAY NIGHT SPREADING CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS MOST AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A DRIER NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
ALONG WITH COOLER...BUT STILL NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.


DISCUSSION...ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SLOWER THAN GFS KICKING
BAJA UPPER LOW NE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...E ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THAT IS UNTIL THE LATEST RUNS WHERE
ECMWF NOW IS FASTER AND LESS FRAGMENTED SWINGING REMNANTS OF SYSTEM
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE GFS IS NOW THE MORE FRAGMENTED
AND SLOWER MODEL...LAGGING MAIN COLD CORE BACK NEAR RENO 12Z
WEDNESDAY AND SHEARING OUT THIS SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  ECMWF SHOWS THE MOST OVERALL CONSISTENCY AND LESS
RADICAL CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.  FORECAST
SPEEDS UP A TAD THE SPREADING OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THIS SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT MOVES INTO STRONG DOWNSTREAM RIDGE...SO
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND COVERAGE SPOTTY WITH SNOW
LEVELS INITIALLY AROUND 8KFT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE WEST ON
TUESDAY...LOWERING TO 5-6KFT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

ECMWF HAS THIS SYSTEM MOVING OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY 00Z
THURSDAY WITH CLIPPER IN NORTHERN STREAM RACING SE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  THIS WILL PUT WYOMING IN NW CONFLUENT FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  24 HOURS
AGO...GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DROPPING A SECOND
CLIPPER INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE FRIDAY.  LATEST GFS SHOWS A
SHARPER UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST AND DRIVES AN ARCTIC BLAST
DOWN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.  ECMWF
CONTINUES TO KEEP THIS SYSTEM AND THE BULK OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS TO
OUR EAST OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.  CONFIDENCE IN AN ARCTIC
INTRUSION IS LOW AT THIS TIME WITH GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS
SIDING WITH A BROADER RIDGE OVER THE WEST.



&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

PATCHY FOG IN THE BASINS AND VALLEYS UNTIL AROUND 16Z. EXPECT LOCAL
IFR CONDITIONS IMPACTING KJAC...KBPI...KPNA...KRIW AND KWRL.

A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS. SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN WY WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. SNOW MAY
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN AFTER 19Z AS WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THOSE
AREAS. LIGHT RAIN MAY GET CLOSE TO THE CASPER AIRPORT IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS AT KCPR
AIRPORT TODAY AND TONIGHT. A GUSTY WIND WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN
JOHNSON COUNTY AFTER 17Z AND THIS WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE KBYG AIRPORT WILL LIKELY SEE WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KNOTS.

AT THE KJAC AIRPORT LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP AROUND 16Z AND CONTINUE
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY WITH VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH PRESSURE LOOMS TO THE WEST WHILE ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM RIPPLES
AROUND THE HIGH TODAY. IT WILL HAVE MINOR IMPACT ON THE AREA WITH
SOME INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME BREEZES IN MOST AREAS...WITH STRONG
WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE BUFFALO AREA. THE MOUNTAINS MAY SEE SOME SNOW
WITH A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN THE LOW
ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN CODY DISPATCH AND CASPER DISPATCH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND
EXPECTED TO LAST INTO NEXT WEEK. WE STILL CAN NOT GET MIXING HEIGHTS
UP TOO MUCH...ESPECIALLY IN LESS WIND PRONE AREAS. HOWEVER THERE
WILL BE SOME HIGH END POOR TO FAIR SMOKE DISPERSAL POSSIBLE
TODAY...EVEN IN THE LESS WINDY AREAS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ALLEN
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN









000
FXUS63 KUNR 240945
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
245 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 229 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AB WITH TROUGH
INTO EASTERN WY AND COOL FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
NOTED ON WATER VAPOUR OVER CENTRAL BC...MOVING SWIFTLY SOUTHEAST
ON 130KT JET STREAK CRASHING ONSHORE OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA. THIS
WAVE WILL BLAST INTO EASTERN SD THIS EVENING WITH THE SURFACE LOW
DROPPING INTO EASTERN ND. SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE WILL
TAP INTO LIMITED MOISTURE AND PRODUCE A BAND OF -SHRASN THIS
MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHWEST
SD. ACTIVITY WILL WANE THIS AFTERNOON ON THE PLAINS AS SUBSIDENCE
KICKS IN BEHIND SHORTWAVE/COOL FRONT. EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS WHERE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT MAY OCCUR. SNOW
AMOUNTS TOUGH GIVEN RATHER WARM BOUNDARY LAYER. MAIN STORY WILL BE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. 850MB WINDS
REACH 50KTS FROM K2WX TO KRAP WITH WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER THIS
AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ADVECTION/ISALLOBARIC FORCING NOT THAT
GREAT...BUT THINK SUBSIDENCE/MIXING WILL OVERCOME TO RESULT IN A
HIGH WIND WARNING WINDS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED CORRIDOR. WILL ALSO
EXPAND CURRENT WIND ADVISORY TO COVER ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF THE
SD PLAINS PER LATEST GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL MILD FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

TONIGHT/SUNDAY...SUBSIDENCE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER EXCEPT OVER
THE FAR WEST WHERE WEAK FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE-800MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
5-10F ABOVE NORMAL ON AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 229 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL IN AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK AND FLATTENING OUT
ACROSS THE PLAINS MIDWEEK. VERY MILD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S...WARMEST
OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS. AS THE RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN DURING MIDWEEK...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PUSH THROUGH...BRINGING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
MODELS DIVERGE SOME TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
GFS SHOWING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WOULD BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW AND ANOTHER SHOT OF
COLDER AIR FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 229 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SD PLAINS LATE
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS A COOL FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM K2WX TO KRAP...WHERE SOME
GUSTS TO NEAR 50 KT ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND
NORTHWEST SD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON MST /1 PM CST/ TODAY TO 7 PM MST /8 PM
     CST/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ030-042>044-046-047-074.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS
     EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012-013-026-031-072-073.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS EVENING
     FOR SDZ014-025-032.

WY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS
     EVENING FOR WYZ071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26





000
FXUS63 KUNR 240945
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
245 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 229 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AB WITH TROUGH
INTO EASTERN WY AND COOL FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
NOTED ON WATER VAPOUR OVER CENTRAL BC...MOVING SWIFTLY SOUTHEAST
ON 130KT JET STREAK CRASHING ONSHORE OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA. THIS
WAVE WILL BLAST INTO EASTERN SD THIS EVENING WITH THE SURFACE LOW
DROPPING INTO EASTERN ND. SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE WILL
TAP INTO LIMITED MOISTURE AND PRODUCE A BAND OF -SHRASN THIS
MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHWEST
SD. ACTIVITY WILL WANE THIS AFTERNOON ON THE PLAINS AS SUBSIDENCE
KICKS IN BEHIND SHORTWAVE/COOL FRONT. EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS WHERE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT MAY OCCUR. SNOW
AMOUNTS TOUGH GIVEN RATHER WARM BOUNDARY LAYER. MAIN STORY WILL BE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. 850MB WINDS
REACH 50KTS FROM K2WX TO KRAP WITH WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER THIS
AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ADVECTION/ISALLOBARIC FORCING NOT THAT
GREAT...BUT THINK SUBSIDENCE/MIXING WILL OVERCOME TO RESULT IN A
HIGH WIND WARNING WINDS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED CORRIDOR. WILL ALSO
EXPAND CURRENT WIND ADVISORY TO COVER ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF THE
SD PLAINS PER LATEST GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL MILD FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

TONIGHT/SUNDAY...SUBSIDENCE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER EXCEPT OVER
THE FAR WEST WHERE WEAK FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE-800MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
5-10F ABOVE NORMAL ON AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 229 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL IN AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK AND FLATTENING OUT
ACROSS THE PLAINS MIDWEEK. VERY MILD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S...WARMEST
OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS. AS THE RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN DURING MIDWEEK...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PUSH THROUGH...BRINGING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
MODELS DIVERGE SOME TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
GFS SHOWING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WOULD BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW AND ANOTHER SHOT OF
COLDER AIR FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 229 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SD PLAINS LATE
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS A COOL FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM K2WX TO KRAP...WHERE SOME
GUSTS TO NEAR 50 KT ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND
NORTHWEST SD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON MST /1 PM CST/ TODAY TO 7 PM MST /8 PM
     CST/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ030-042>044-046-047-074.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS
     EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012-013-026-031-072-073.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS EVENING
     FOR SDZ014-025-032.

WY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS
     EVENING FOR WYZ071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26





000
FXUS63 KUNR 240945
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
245 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 229 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AB WITH TROUGH
INTO EASTERN WY AND COOL FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
NOTED ON WATER VAPOUR OVER CENTRAL BC...MOVING SWIFTLY SOUTHEAST
ON 130KT JET STREAK CRASHING ONSHORE OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA. THIS
WAVE WILL BLAST INTO EASTERN SD THIS EVENING WITH THE SURFACE LOW
DROPPING INTO EASTERN ND. SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE WILL
TAP INTO LIMITED MOISTURE AND PRODUCE A BAND OF -SHRASN THIS
MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHWEST
SD. ACTIVITY WILL WANE THIS AFTERNOON ON THE PLAINS AS SUBSIDENCE
KICKS IN BEHIND SHORTWAVE/COOL FRONT. EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS WHERE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT MAY OCCUR. SNOW
AMOUNTS TOUGH GIVEN RATHER WARM BOUNDARY LAYER. MAIN STORY WILL BE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. 850MB WINDS
REACH 50KTS FROM K2WX TO KRAP WITH WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER THIS
AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ADVECTION/ISALLOBARIC FORCING NOT THAT
GREAT...BUT THINK SUBSIDENCE/MIXING WILL OVERCOME TO RESULT IN A
HIGH WIND WARNING WINDS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED CORRIDOR. WILL ALSO
EXPAND CURRENT WIND ADVISORY TO COVER ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF THE
SD PLAINS PER LATEST GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL MILD FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

TONIGHT/SUNDAY...SUBSIDENCE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER EXCEPT OVER
THE FAR WEST WHERE WEAK FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE-800MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
5-10F ABOVE NORMAL ON AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 229 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL IN AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK AND FLATTENING OUT
ACROSS THE PLAINS MIDWEEK. VERY MILD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S...WARMEST
OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS. AS THE RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN DURING MIDWEEK...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PUSH THROUGH...BRINGING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
MODELS DIVERGE SOME TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
GFS SHOWING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WOULD BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW AND ANOTHER SHOT OF
COLDER AIR FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 229 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SD PLAINS LATE
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS A COOL FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM K2WX TO KRAP...WHERE SOME
GUSTS TO NEAR 50 KT ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND
NORTHWEST SD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON MST /1 PM CST/ TODAY TO 7 PM MST /8 PM
     CST/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ030-042>044-046-047-074.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS
     EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012-013-026-031-072-073.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS EVENING
     FOR SDZ014-025-032.

WY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS
     EVENING FOR WYZ071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26





000
FXUS63 KUNR 240945
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
245 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 229 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AB WITH TROUGH
INTO EASTERN WY AND COOL FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
NOTED ON WATER VAPOUR OVER CENTRAL BC...MOVING SWIFTLY SOUTHEAST
ON 130KT JET STREAK CRASHING ONSHORE OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA. THIS
WAVE WILL BLAST INTO EASTERN SD THIS EVENING WITH THE SURFACE LOW
DROPPING INTO EASTERN ND. SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE WILL
TAP INTO LIMITED MOISTURE AND PRODUCE A BAND OF -SHRASN THIS
MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHWEST
SD. ACTIVITY WILL WANE THIS AFTERNOON ON THE PLAINS AS SUBSIDENCE
KICKS IN BEHIND SHORTWAVE/COOL FRONT. EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS WHERE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT MAY OCCUR. SNOW
AMOUNTS TOUGH GIVEN RATHER WARM BOUNDARY LAYER. MAIN STORY WILL BE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. 850MB WINDS
REACH 50KTS FROM K2WX TO KRAP WITH WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER THIS
AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ADVECTION/ISALLOBARIC FORCING NOT THAT
GREAT...BUT THINK SUBSIDENCE/MIXING WILL OVERCOME TO RESULT IN A
HIGH WIND WARNING WINDS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED CORRIDOR. WILL ALSO
EXPAND CURRENT WIND ADVISORY TO COVER ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF THE
SD PLAINS PER LATEST GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL MILD FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

TONIGHT/SUNDAY...SUBSIDENCE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER EXCEPT OVER
THE FAR WEST WHERE WEAK FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE-800MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
5-10F ABOVE NORMAL ON AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 229 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL IN AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK AND FLATTENING OUT
ACROSS THE PLAINS MIDWEEK. VERY MILD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S...WARMEST
OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS. AS THE RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN DURING MIDWEEK...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PUSH THROUGH...BRINGING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
MODELS DIVERGE SOME TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
GFS SHOWING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WOULD BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW AND ANOTHER SHOT OF
COLDER AIR FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 229 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SD PLAINS LATE
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS A COOL FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM K2WX TO KRAP...WHERE SOME
GUSTS TO NEAR 50 KT ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND
NORTHWEST SD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON MST /1 PM CST/ TODAY TO 7 PM MST /8 PM
     CST/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ030-042>044-046-047-074.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS
     EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012-013-026-031-072-073.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS EVENING
     FOR SDZ014-025-032.

WY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS
     EVENING FOR WYZ071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26





000
FXUS63 KUNR 240945
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
245 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 229 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AB WITH TROUGH
INTO EASTERN WY AND COOL FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
NOTED ON WATER VAPOUR OVER CENTRAL BC...MOVING SWIFTLY SOUTHEAST
ON 130KT JET STREAK CRASHING ONSHORE OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA. THIS
WAVE WILL BLAST INTO EASTERN SD THIS EVENING WITH THE SURFACE LOW
DROPPING INTO EASTERN ND. SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE WILL
TAP INTO LIMITED MOISTURE AND PRODUCE A BAND OF -SHRASN THIS
MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHWEST
SD. ACTIVITY WILL WANE THIS AFTERNOON ON THE PLAINS AS SUBSIDENCE
KICKS IN BEHIND SHORTWAVE/COOL FRONT. EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS WHERE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT MAY OCCUR. SNOW
AMOUNTS TOUGH GIVEN RATHER WARM BOUNDARY LAYER. MAIN STORY WILL BE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. 850MB WINDS
REACH 50KTS FROM K2WX TO KRAP WITH WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER THIS
AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ADVECTION/ISALLOBARIC FORCING NOT THAT
GREAT...BUT THINK SUBSIDENCE/MIXING WILL OVERCOME TO RESULT IN A
HIGH WIND WARNING WINDS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED CORRIDOR. WILL ALSO
EXPAND CURRENT WIND ADVISORY TO COVER ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF THE
SD PLAINS PER LATEST GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL MILD FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

TONIGHT/SUNDAY...SUBSIDENCE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER EXCEPT OVER
THE FAR WEST WHERE WEAK FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE-800MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
5-10F ABOVE NORMAL ON AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 229 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL IN AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK AND FLATTENING OUT
ACROSS THE PLAINS MIDWEEK. VERY MILD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S...WARMEST
OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS. AS THE RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN DURING MIDWEEK...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PUSH THROUGH...BRINGING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
MODELS DIVERGE SOME TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
GFS SHOWING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WOULD BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW AND ANOTHER SHOT OF
COLDER AIR FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 229 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SD PLAINS LATE
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS A COOL FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM K2WX TO KRAP...WHERE SOME
GUSTS TO NEAR 50 KT ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND
NORTHWEST SD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON MST /1 PM CST/ TODAY TO 7 PM MST /8 PM
     CST/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ030-042>044-046-047-074.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS
     EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012-013-026-031-072-073.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS EVENING
     FOR SDZ014-025-032.

WY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS
     EVENING FOR WYZ071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS63 KUNR 240945
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
245 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 229 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AB WITH TROUGH
INTO EASTERN WY AND COOL FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
NOTED ON WATER VAPOUR OVER CENTRAL BC...MOVING SWIFTLY SOUTHEAST
ON 130KT JET STREAK CRASHING ONSHORE OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA. THIS
WAVE WILL BLAST INTO EASTERN SD THIS EVENING WITH THE SURFACE LOW
DROPPING INTO EASTERN ND. SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE WILL
TAP INTO LIMITED MOISTURE AND PRODUCE A BAND OF -SHRASN THIS
MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHWEST
SD. ACTIVITY WILL WANE THIS AFTERNOON ON THE PLAINS AS SUBSIDENCE
KICKS IN BEHIND SHORTWAVE/COOL FRONT. EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS WHERE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT MAY OCCUR. SNOW
AMOUNTS TOUGH GIVEN RATHER WARM BOUNDARY LAYER. MAIN STORY WILL BE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. 850MB WINDS
REACH 50KTS FROM K2WX TO KRAP WITH WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER THIS
AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ADVECTION/ISALLOBARIC FORCING NOT THAT
GREAT...BUT THINK SUBSIDENCE/MIXING WILL OVERCOME TO RESULT IN A
HIGH WIND WARNING WINDS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED CORRIDOR. WILL ALSO
EXPAND CURRENT WIND ADVISORY TO COVER ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF THE
SD PLAINS PER LATEST GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL MILD FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

TONIGHT/SUNDAY...SUBSIDENCE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER EXCEPT OVER
THE FAR WEST WHERE WEAK FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE-800MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
5-10F ABOVE NORMAL ON AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 229 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL IN AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK AND FLATTENING OUT
ACROSS THE PLAINS MIDWEEK. VERY MILD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S...WARMEST
OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS. AS THE RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN DURING MIDWEEK...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PUSH THROUGH...BRINGING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
MODELS DIVERGE SOME TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
GFS SHOWING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WOULD BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW AND ANOTHER SHOT OF
COLDER AIR FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 229 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SD PLAINS LATE
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS A COOL FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM K2WX TO KRAP...WHERE SOME
GUSTS TO NEAR 50 KT ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND
NORTHWEST SD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON MST /1 PM CST/ TODAY TO 7 PM MST /8 PM
     CST/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ030-042>044-046-047-074.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS
     EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012-013-026-031-072-073.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS EVENING
     FOR SDZ014-025-032.

WY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS
     EVENING FOR WYZ071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26





000
FXUS65 KCYS 240939
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
239 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

WEST WINDS HAVE REALLY STARTED TO RAMP UP IN THE BORDEAUX AREA THIS
MORNING. RECENT HIGHWAY OBSERVATIONS HAVE ALREADY SHOWN A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 55 MPH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS HOVERING AROUND 40 MPH. THIS
IS A BIT EARLIER THAN EXPECTED AS GRADIENTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PEAK
UNTIL LATER THIS AM. THE NAM H85 CAG-CPR GRADIENT CONTINUES TO CLIMB
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH A MAX OF 64 METERS AROUND 12Z. WEST-TO-EAST
ORIENTED LLVL GRADIENTS MORE FAVORABLE FOR BORDEAUX REACH THEIR PEAK
AROUND 18Z. EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTN
IN THE RFQ OF A 130 KT H25 JET SHIFTING INTO WESTERN NE. STILL SOME
QUESTIONS AS MODELED DOWNWARD H85-H5 OMEGA NEVER SPREADS FAR ENOUGH
EAST TO ENCOMPASS BORDEAUX...BUT BELIEVE CURRENT WINDS WOULD BE LESS
IF THIS WAS A MAJOR INHIBITING FACTOR. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A HIGH
WIND WARNING FOR BORDEAUX AS 50-55 KT FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO STAY
INTACT ALONG WITH GRADIENTS ONLY GETTING STRONGER. OTHER WIND PRONE
AREAS WILL BE WINDY AS WELL...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT GUSTS TO BE A BIT
LESS WITH AN UNFAVORABLE ORIENTATION OF HEIGHT/MSLP GRADIENTS. WILL
NEED TO WATCH THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AS MIXING COULD
TAP INTO STRONGER FLOW ALOFT BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE. MAV GUIDANCE AS
WELL AS GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE A BIT CONCERNING FOR THE INTERSTATE
80 CORRIDOR OVER THE PLAINS AS WELL WITH 40 TO 50 KT FLOW AT THE TOP
OF THE MIXED LAYER AROUND MID AFTN. INCREASED WINDS...BUT DID NOT GO
AS STRONG AS THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST AS CLOUDS COULD AFFECT LLVL LAPSE
RATES.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP WAS INDICATIVE OF A STRONG MIDLVL
SHORTWAVE OVER ALBERTA/BRITISH COLUMBIA AT 09Z. GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE DEEPENING CONSIDERABLY AS IT DIVES
INTO NORTHERN NE BY 00Z SUN. THIS WILL ALSO DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE THIS AFTN. STILL A
FEW QUESTIONS WITH JUST HOW STRONG THIS FRONT WILL BE...AND WHETHER
IT WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. 00Z NAM SHOWS
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF...WHILE THE THE GFS AND ECMWF PAINT A
BAND OF VERY LIGHT QPF WITH GOOD FRONTOGENESIS. WILL SIDE TOWARD THE
GFS AS PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS EVIDENT UPSTREAM ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO BUMP UP POPS FOR ALL AREAS
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. IN EITHER CASE...THIS WILL
BE LOW IMPACT AS PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RAIN WITH THE WARM THERMAL
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE OVER THE CWA. THE MODELS SUGGEST HIGH-AMPLITUDE
RIDGING ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS ON SUN AND MON. LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGESTS A RECORD
HIGHS COULD BE THREATENED ON MON. H7 TEMPS COULD APPROACH 5-6 DEG C
AND MOST MOS GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID 60S
OVER THE PLAINS...SO EXPECT A VERY WARM AND PLEASANT DAY. A POSSIBLE
LIMITING FACTOR FOR TEMPS WILL BE ANY HIGH CLOUDS THAT MAY ACCOMPANY
THE RIDGE AXIS...BUT GFS H25 RH PROGS DO NOT SUGGEST THICKER CIRRUS
UNTIL WELL BEYOND PEAK HEATING. CONTINUED TO TREND WARMER FOR HIGHS
ON MON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

PRETTY NICE DAY TUESDAY WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
700MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM...GFS SHOWING +6 TO +7C...ECMWF A
LITTLE COOLER WITH +5C. REGARDLESS...TUESDAY SHOULD BE WARM AND
DRY WITH WIDESPREAD 60S EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND LOW TO MID
50S WEST. DID GO A LITTLE HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES.
GOING TO BE WINDY WEST WITH 700MB WINDS 40 TO 45KTS...SO
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE LARAMIE RANGE SHOULD HELP WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

HAVE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THAT
SHOULD BEGIN TO COOL THINGS OFF. GFS 700MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO -2
TO -4C WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GFS DRY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH WHILE THE ECMWF HAS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD QPF OFF TO
THE WEST IN CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES. DID INCREASE POPS OUT WEST
AND IN THE MOUNTAINS.

SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR...THE GFS HITTING US PRETTY HARD FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. QUICK MOVING THOUGH WITH PRECIP ENDING BY SATURDAY
MORNING. ECMWF HAS THIS SHORTWAVE PASSING OFF TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF OUR CWFA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT AREA TERMINALS THRU THE PERIOD. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KRWL WHERE MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AFTER
22Z. EXPECT A MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH JUST SOME THIN
CIRRUS CLOUDS PASSING THRU. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY
AGAIN AFTER 14Z ON SATURDAY WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KNOTS EXPECTED.
THERE WILL BE A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON KBFF...KCDR AND KAIA. TOO ISOLATED TO GET SPECIFIC WITH
TIMING OR LOCATION NOW...SO HAVE TRENDED TAFS INTO VCSH.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 139 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...BUT ALL OTHER PARAMETERS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NON-CRITICAL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WYZ106.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...CLH




000
FXUS65 KCYS 240939
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
239 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

WEST WINDS HAVE REALLY STARTED TO RAMP UP IN THE BORDEAUX AREA THIS
MORNING. RECENT HIGHWAY OBSERVATIONS HAVE ALREADY SHOWN A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 55 MPH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS HOVERING AROUND 40 MPH. THIS
IS A BIT EARLIER THAN EXPECTED AS GRADIENTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PEAK
UNTIL LATER THIS AM. THE NAM H85 CAG-CPR GRADIENT CONTINUES TO CLIMB
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH A MAX OF 64 METERS AROUND 12Z. WEST-TO-EAST
ORIENTED LLVL GRADIENTS MORE FAVORABLE FOR BORDEAUX REACH THEIR PEAK
AROUND 18Z. EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTN
IN THE RFQ OF A 130 KT H25 JET SHIFTING INTO WESTERN NE. STILL SOME
QUESTIONS AS MODELED DOWNWARD H85-H5 OMEGA NEVER SPREADS FAR ENOUGH
EAST TO ENCOMPASS BORDEAUX...BUT BELIEVE CURRENT WINDS WOULD BE LESS
IF THIS WAS A MAJOR INHIBITING FACTOR. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A HIGH
WIND WARNING FOR BORDEAUX AS 50-55 KT FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO STAY
INTACT ALONG WITH GRADIENTS ONLY GETTING STRONGER. OTHER WIND PRONE
AREAS WILL BE WINDY AS WELL...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT GUSTS TO BE A BIT
LESS WITH AN UNFAVORABLE ORIENTATION OF HEIGHT/MSLP GRADIENTS. WILL
NEED TO WATCH THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AS MIXING COULD
TAP INTO STRONGER FLOW ALOFT BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE. MAV GUIDANCE AS
WELL AS GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE A BIT CONCERNING FOR THE INTERSTATE
80 CORRIDOR OVER THE PLAINS AS WELL WITH 40 TO 50 KT FLOW AT THE TOP
OF THE MIXED LAYER AROUND MID AFTN. INCREASED WINDS...BUT DID NOT GO
AS STRONG AS THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST AS CLOUDS COULD AFFECT LLVL LAPSE
RATES.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP WAS INDICATIVE OF A STRONG MIDLVL
SHORTWAVE OVER ALBERTA/BRITISH COLUMBIA AT 09Z. GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE DEEPENING CONSIDERABLY AS IT DIVES
INTO NORTHERN NE BY 00Z SUN. THIS WILL ALSO DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE THIS AFTN. STILL A
FEW QUESTIONS WITH JUST HOW STRONG THIS FRONT WILL BE...AND WHETHER
IT WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. 00Z NAM SHOWS
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF...WHILE THE THE GFS AND ECMWF PAINT A
BAND OF VERY LIGHT QPF WITH GOOD FRONTOGENESIS. WILL SIDE TOWARD THE
GFS AS PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS EVIDENT UPSTREAM ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO BUMP UP POPS FOR ALL AREAS
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. IN EITHER CASE...THIS WILL
BE LOW IMPACT AS PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RAIN WITH THE WARM THERMAL
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE OVER THE CWA. THE MODELS SUGGEST HIGH-AMPLITUDE
RIDGING ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS ON SUN AND MON. LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGESTS A RECORD
HIGHS COULD BE THREATENED ON MON. H7 TEMPS COULD APPROACH 5-6 DEG C
AND MOST MOS GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID 60S
OVER THE PLAINS...SO EXPECT A VERY WARM AND PLEASANT DAY. A POSSIBLE
LIMITING FACTOR FOR TEMPS WILL BE ANY HIGH CLOUDS THAT MAY ACCOMPANY
THE RIDGE AXIS...BUT GFS H25 RH PROGS DO NOT SUGGEST THICKER CIRRUS
UNTIL WELL BEYOND PEAK HEATING. CONTINUED TO TREND WARMER FOR HIGHS
ON MON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

PRETTY NICE DAY TUESDAY WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
700MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM...GFS SHOWING +6 TO +7C...ECMWF A
LITTLE COOLER WITH +5C. REGARDLESS...TUESDAY SHOULD BE WARM AND
DRY WITH WIDESPREAD 60S EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND LOW TO MID
50S WEST. DID GO A LITTLE HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES.
GOING TO BE WINDY WEST WITH 700MB WINDS 40 TO 45KTS...SO
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE LARAMIE RANGE SHOULD HELP WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

HAVE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THAT
SHOULD BEGIN TO COOL THINGS OFF. GFS 700MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO -2
TO -4C WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GFS DRY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH WHILE THE ECMWF HAS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD QPF OFF TO
THE WEST IN CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES. DID INCREASE POPS OUT WEST
AND IN THE MOUNTAINS.

SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR...THE GFS HITTING US PRETTY HARD FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. QUICK MOVING THOUGH WITH PRECIP ENDING BY SATURDAY
MORNING. ECMWF HAS THIS SHORTWAVE PASSING OFF TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF OUR CWFA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT AREA TERMINALS THRU THE PERIOD. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KRWL WHERE MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AFTER
22Z. EXPECT A MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH JUST SOME THIN
CIRRUS CLOUDS PASSING THRU. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY
AGAIN AFTER 14Z ON SATURDAY WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KNOTS EXPECTED.
THERE WILL BE A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON KBFF...KCDR AND KAIA. TOO ISOLATED TO GET SPECIFIC WITH
TIMING OR LOCATION NOW...SO HAVE TRENDED TAFS INTO VCSH.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 139 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...BUT ALL OTHER PARAMETERS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NON-CRITICAL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WYZ106.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...CLH



000
FXUS65 KCYS 240556
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1056 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 912 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

OVERNIGHT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AS SKIES HAVE BECOME
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS HAVE BEEN BEHAVING AS
WELL...WITH ARLINGTON/BORDEAUX THE ONLY AREAS OBSERVING WIND GUSTS
OF 25-30 MPH AT THIS HOUR. H85 KCAG-KCPR LLVL HEIGHT GRADIENT
FLARES UP TO AROUND 64 METERS AT 12Z SATURDAY...WHILE THE H7
GRADIENT REMAINS IN THE 40S. THIS SHOULD FAVOR AREAS SOUTHWEST OF
WHEATLAND ALONG HIGHWAY 34. AM NOT CONFIDENT THAT THESE STRONGER
WINDS WILL EVEN MAKE IT AS FAR EAST AS BORDEAUX...BUT DID BOOST
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH THERE DURING THE MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

BATCH OF CLOUD COVER CONTINUING TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY PCPN BEING PRODUCED.
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE WITH SKIES CLEARING ACROSS THE CWA THIS
EVENING WITH MINS ON THE CHILLY SIDE.

A RATHER QUIET WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED TO HOLD OVER THE AREA WITH
NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES OR SO BOTH DAYS WITH MILD
HIGHS OVER THE PLAINS...IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. THERE WILL BE
SOME GUSTY WINDS AS DECENT MID-LEVEL WINDS MIX DOWN BUT NOTHING
TOO STRONG. NEXT IMPULSE IN THE FLOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE CWA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

MONDAY WILL START OFF VERY WARM AND DRY AS A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE ROCKIES. THE INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH
BREEZY WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN PLACE TO NUDGE TEMPS INTO THE 50S
TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 40S OUT WEST. TUESDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER READINGS AS THE RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD...PERHAPS NEAR RECORD LEVELS IN A FEW LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST
AS A WEAK WAVE RIDES A TOP THE RIDGE AND ACROSS NORTHERN
WYOMING...WITH CLOUDS INCREASING ALSO FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN
THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THIS COULD SHAVE A
FEW DEGREES OFF THE TOP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN
AS IT APPROACHES THE CWA ON TUESDAY...BUT FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SFC
STRENGTHENING AND ADDING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO OVERALL FORCING
IN THE MOUNTAINS. THUS...EXPECT TO SEE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
SHOWERS SPREADING EAST ONTO THE PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REMAIN MILD ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND IN THE HIGH VALLEYS ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO LIKELY BE RAIN OR
RAIN-SNOW MIX. IN ADDITION...THE LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
STRENGTHEN TUES NIGHT- WED AHEAD OF THE WAVE WITH H7 WINDS AROUND
50KTS PROGGED BY THE GFS AT 12Z. SO COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
HIGH WINDS IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS AND PERHAPS IMMEDIATE LEE OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE WED MORNING WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS SPREADING
EAST INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT AREA TERMINALS THRU THE PERIOD. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KRWL WHERE MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AFTER
22Z. EXPECT A MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH JUST SOME THIN
CIRRUS CLOUDS PASSING THRU. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY
AGAIN AFTER 14Z ON SATURDAY WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KNOTS EXPECTED.
THERE WILL BE A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON KBFF...KCDR AND KAIA. TOO ISOLATED TO GET SPECIFIC WITH
TIMING OR LOCATION NOW...SO HAVE TRENDED TAFS INTO VCSH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

NO CONCERNS ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK OTHER THAN SOME
PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS.  REMAINING FACTORS NON-CRITICAL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CAH
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...CAH
FIRE WEATHER...RE




000
FXUS63 KUNR 240522
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1022 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 204 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES WITH A NE-SW TROUGH OVER MINNESOTA IOWA AND NEBRASKA. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FA THIS AFTN. THE UPPER ANALYSIS INDICATES RIDGING OVER THE
WEST COAST WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS...RESULTING IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WEST COAST.
A SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WHILE A SURFACE LOW WILL DROP FROM SRN SASKATCHEWAN IN THE
MORNING...INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY EARLY EVENING. THE
RESULTING TIGHTENING OF THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH LOW
LEVEL CAA OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL LEAD TO VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND ON THE
PLAINS EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS FROM LATE SAT MORNING INTO EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING. THEREFORE WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS.
THE BEST MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED ALONG AND NORTHEAST
OF THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...BUT A PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC
LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS SUGGESTS SOME -SHRASN MAY OCCUR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE NRN BLACK
HILLS...WHERE SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE AND CONTINUED WARMER THAN AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 204 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY...WITH SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW RAIN OR
MORNING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK
HILLS...AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST SD. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL IN
AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVING
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING EVEN
WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE 50S. SOME LOW 60S CERTAINLY LOOK POSSIBLE IN A FEW AREAS.
MODELS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...SOME PRECIP MAY HAVE
TO BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST...BUT WILL KEEP DRY FOR NOW. ZONAL FLOW
TAKES OVER AFTER THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH...ALLOWING FOR MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK. COOLER TEMPS AND CHANCES FOR
PCPN WILL LIKELY RETURN BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1021 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A STRONG
IMPULSE WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FA...WITH POTENTIAL
SCT MVFR CONDS OVER NE WY AND THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ESP ON THE
SD PLAINS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MST SATURDAY FOR SDZ001-002-
     012>014-025-026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...JC







000
FXUS65 KRIW 240500
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1000 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY (ISSUED AT 158 PM MST)

MID LEVEL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
HAS BEEN PUSHING SOUTH FROM THE UPPER GREEN INTO THE THE SW
CORNER. ANOTHER AREA OVER CENTRAL WYO BROUGHT SOME FLURRIES FROM
RIW TO WEST OF CPR EARLIER AND WHAT`S LEFT OF THAT AREA IS PUSHING
THROUGH FROM NEAR SOUTH PASS EAST TO PATHFINDER. CLOUDS STILL
LINGERING FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND THIS AREAS OF PCPN. LOOKS LIKE
A LOT OF THE AREA WILL CLEAR OFF EARLY THIS EVENING AND THAT
COMBINED WITH SIGNIFICANT WARMING ALOFT MAY SET THE STAGE FOR SOME
BRIEF FOG OR LOW CLOUDS IN THE BASINS AND VALLEYS. THE BEST CHANCE
WILL PROBABLY BE IN THE WIND RIVER BASIN WITH A SECONDARY AREA OR
TWO IN THE UPPER GREEN AND WRL SWD. FURTHER NORTH...THE CLOUDS
START EDGING IN TOWARDS MORNING WHICH WILL LIMIT OR NOT ALLOW THE
FOG TO FORM. ONLY ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THOSE AREAS. LEADING EDGE OF
THE SHORTWAVE EDGES INTO THE NW BEFORE 12Z AND THEN ACROSS MOST OF
THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING. MODEST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVERALL
BUT ENOUGH FOR SOME HIGH COUNTY SNOW AND PROBABLY A COUPLE INCHES
FOR SOME OF THE FAR NRN MOUNTAINS FROM THE ABSAROKAS OVER TO THE
BIGHORNS. ALSO LOOKS LIKE A SHOT IN THE MT BORDER AREAS OF THE
BIGHORN BASIN AND ESPECIALLY IN JOHNSON COUNTY SATURDAY MORNING...
POSSIBLY MAKING IT DOWN TO CASPER AND CASPER MTN. ADDED IN SOME
SLIGHT CHANCES THERE FROM MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. WARM
ENOUGH THAT IT MAY BECOME SPRINKLES. ALSO LOOKS QUITE WINDY IN THE
BYG AREA AS THE DAY WEARS ON SO PREVIOUS FCST OF 50-55 MPH WINDS
STILL LOOKS GOOD. A FEW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THE EDGE OF
THIS SYSTEM A LITTLE FURTHER WEST. OTHERWISE...QUITE A BIT OF
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA LIKE TODAY. ANOTHER WEATHER INTEREST IS
SOME DECENT GAP FLOW AT TIMES IN THE CODY FOOTHILLS THROUGH
SATURDAY. NOTHING WARRANTING A HIGHLIGHT BUT WINDY NONETHELESS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

THE LAST IN THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. AGAIN...THE SYSTEM
IS MOISTURE STARVED SO ANY ACCUMULATIONS ONCE AGAIN WILL BE LIGHT.
ONE CONCERN IS SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE FAVORED AREAS LIKE CLARK AND
EVEN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN BIG HORN BASIN AND NEAR BUFFALO THAT
ARE FAVORED IN NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THIS POINT...700 MILLIBAR WINDS DO
NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ANY HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS BUT WE
WILL WATCH IT.

THEN STARTING ON SUNDAY...ANY SNOW SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AS THE WAVE
MOVES AWAY AND HEIGHTS START TO RISE . BY SUNDAY NIGHT...SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD END AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
FROM MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN HERE IS FOR POSSIBLE
INVERSIONS WITH THE WEAK FLOW. AT THIS POINT...THE WESTERN VALLEYS
WITH DEEPER SNOWPACK LOOK LIKE A BETTER BET FOR THAT. EAST OF THE
DIVIDE...EVEN IN THE BASINS MANY OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS HAVE LOST
SNOWPACK AND THE SNOW THAT IS LEFT IS OLDER...HENCE LIMITING ALBEDO.
THEREFORE...IT LOOKS UNSEASONABLE MILD. SOME MODELS ARE HINTING AT
SOME AREAS MAKING A RUN AT HIGHS OF 60 MONDAY OR TUESDAY...MAINLY
EAST OF THE BIGHORN RANGE.  NOT READY TO BITE ON THAT YET...BUT IT
CERTAINLY WILL NOT FEEL LIKE JANUARY. THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR
SOME LATE NIGHT FOG IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS AND BASIN AREAS WITH THE
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WITH ORIGINS IN THE BAJA WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...WE LIKE THE GFS BETTER SINCE IT HAS
BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH TIMING THAN THE EUROPEAN WHICH HAS JUMPED
AROUND THE PAST FEW RUNS. AT THIS POINT...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
MAJOR STORM WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY OUT WEST. THE SMALLEST CHANCES WOULD BE NEAR CASPER
WERE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COULD PREVENT PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING
THE GROUND. WE ALSO AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY WARM WITH
MANY EASTERN VALLEY AND BASINS LOCATIONS POSSIBLY SEEING MOSTLY RAIN
WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 6000 FEET OR SO. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT
EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK...OR AT LEAST THE
WORKWEEK FOR PEOPLE WHO DO NOT DO SHIFT WORK...WE WILL RETURN TO A
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW. BOTH THE EUROPEAN AND GFS SHOW AN ALBERTA CLIPPER DROPPING
DOWN FOR FRIDAY. THE BEST ENERGY REMAINS WELL TO THE EAST OF
WYOMING...ALTHOUGH IT COULD GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRUSH THE AREA WITH
A FEW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT EXCEPT FOR PATCHY FOG IN THE BASINS
AND VALLEYS. LCL IFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE AFFECTING KJAC...KBPI...
KPNA...KRIW AND KWRL. THE FOG WILL END AROUND 16Z.

A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD CLOUDS...AND VERY LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WHICH WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL BLOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN
JOHNSON COUNTY. AT THE KJAC AIRPORT LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP AROUND
16Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY WITH VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN BIGHORN
BASIN AND JOHNSON COUNTY COULD BECOME A MIXTURE OF RAIN OR SNOW IN
THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING AROUND 00Z SUNDAY. WIND GUSTS OVER
50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AT THE KBYG AIRPORT SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH PRESSURE LOOMS TO THE WEST WHILE A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS RIPPLE
AROUND THE HIGH AGAIN ON SATURDAY. THEY WILL HAVE MINOR IMPACT ON
THE AREA WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME BREEZES IN MOST
AREAS. THE MOUNTAINS MAY SEE SOME SNOW WITH A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF
A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN THE LOW ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN CODY
DISPATCH AND CASPER DISPATCH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED TO LAST INTO NEXT WEEK.
WE STILL CAN NOT GET MIXING HEIGHTS UP TOO MUCH...ESPECIALLY IN
LESS WIND PRONE AREAS. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH END POOR TO
FAIR SMOKE DISPERSAL POSSIBLE WITH EACH WAVE...EVEN IN THE LESS
WINDY AREAS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PS
LONG TERM...HATTINGS
AVIATION...PS/AR
FIRE WEATHER...PS








000
FXUS65 KRIW 240500
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1000 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY (ISSUED AT 158 PM MST)

MID LEVEL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
HAS BEEN PUSHING SOUTH FROM THE UPPER GREEN INTO THE THE SW
CORNER. ANOTHER AREA OVER CENTRAL WYO BROUGHT SOME FLURRIES FROM
RIW TO WEST OF CPR EARLIER AND WHAT`S LEFT OF THAT AREA IS PUSHING
THROUGH FROM NEAR SOUTH PASS EAST TO PATHFINDER. CLOUDS STILL
LINGERING FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND THIS AREAS OF PCPN. LOOKS LIKE
A LOT OF THE AREA WILL CLEAR OFF EARLY THIS EVENING AND THAT
COMBINED WITH SIGNIFICANT WARMING ALOFT MAY SET THE STAGE FOR SOME
BRIEF FOG OR LOW CLOUDS IN THE BASINS AND VALLEYS. THE BEST CHANCE
WILL PROBABLY BE IN THE WIND RIVER BASIN WITH A SECONDARY AREA OR
TWO IN THE UPPER GREEN AND WRL SWD. FURTHER NORTH...THE CLOUDS
START EDGING IN TOWARDS MORNING WHICH WILL LIMIT OR NOT ALLOW THE
FOG TO FORM. ONLY ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THOSE AREAS. LEADING EDGE OF
THE SHORTWAVE EDGES INTO THE NW BEFORE 12Z AND THEN ACROSS MOST OF
THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING. MODEST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVERALL
BUT ENOUGH FOR SOME HIGH COUNTY SNOW AND PROBABLY A COUPLE INCHES
FOR SOME OF THE FAR NRN MOUNTAINS FROM THE ABSAROKAS OVER TO THE
BIGHORNS. ALSO LOOKS LIKE A SHOT IN THE MT BORDER AREAS OF THE
BIGHORN BASIN AND ESPECIALLY IN JOHNSON COUNTY SATURDAY MORNING...
POSSIBLY MAKING IT DOWN TO CASPER AND CASPER MTN. ADDED IN SOME
SLIGHT CHANCES THERE FROM MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. WARM
ENOUGH THAT IT MAY BECOME SPRINKLES. ALSO LOOKS QUITE WINDY IN THE
BYG AREA AS THE DAY WEARS ON SO PREVIOUS FCST OF 50-55 MPH WINDS
STILL LOOKS GOOD. A FEW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THE EDGE OF
THIS SYSTEM A LITTLE FURTHER WEST. OTHERWISE...QUITE A BIT OF
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA LIKE TODAY. ANOTHER WEATHER INTEREST IS
SOME DECENT GAP FLOW AT TIMES IN THE CODY FOOTHILLS THROUGH
SATURDAY. NOTHING WARRANTING A HIGHLIGHT BUT WINDY NONETHELESS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

THE LAST IN THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. AGAIN...THE SYSTEM
IS MOISTURE STARVED SO ANY ACCUMULATIONS ONCE AGAIN WILL BE LIGHT.
ONE CONCERN IS SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE FAVORED AREAS LIKE CLARK AND
EVEN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN BIG HORN BASIN AND NEAR BUFFALO THAT
ARE FAVORED IN NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THIS POINT...700 MILLIBAR WINDS DO
NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ANY HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS BUT WE
WILL WATCH IT.

THEN STARTING ON SUNDAY...ANY SNOW SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AS THE WAVE
MOVES AWAY AND HEIGHTS START TO RISE . BY SUNDAY NIGHT...SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD END AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
FROM MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN HERE IS FOR POSSIBLE
INVERSIONS WITH THE WEAK FLOW. AT THIS POINT...THE WESTERN VALLEYS
WITH DEEPER SNOWPACK LOOK LIKE A BETTER BET FOR THAT. EAST OF THE
DIVIDE...EVEN IN THE BASINS MANY OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS HAVE LOST
SNOWPACK AND THE SNOW THAT IS LEFT IS OLDER...HENCE LIMITING ALBEDO.
THEREFORE...IT LOOKS UNSEASONABLE MILD. SOME MODELS ARE HINTING AT
SOME AREAS MAKING A RUN AT HIGHS OF 60 MONDAY OR TUESDAY...MAINLY
EAST OF THE BIGHORN RANGE.  NOT READY TO BITE ON THAT YET...BUT IT
CERTAINLY WILL NOT FEEL LIKE JANUARY. THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR
SOME LATE NIGHT FOG IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS AND BASIN AREAS WITH THE
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WITH ORIGINS IN THE BAJA WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...WE LIKE THE GFS BETTER SINCE IT HAS
BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH TIMING THAN THE EUROPEAN WHICH HAS JUMPED
AROUND THE PAST FEW RUNS. AT THIS POINT...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
MAJOR STORM WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY OUT WEST. THE SMALLEST CHANCES WOULD BE NEAR CASPER
WERE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COULD PREVENT PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING
THE GROUND. WE ALSO AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY WARM WITH
MANY EASTERN VALLEY AND BASINS LOCATIONS POSSIBLY SEEING MOSTLY RAIN
WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 6000 FEET OR SO. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT
EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK...OR AT LEAST THE
WORKWEEK FOR PEOPLE WHO DO NOT DO SHIFT WORK...WE WILL RETURN TO A
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW. BOTH THE EUROPEAN AND GFS SHOW AN ALBERTA CLIPPER DROPPING
DOWN FOR FRIDAY. THE BEST ENERGY REMAINS WELL TO THE EAST OF
WYOMING...ALTHOUGH IT COULD GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRUSH THE AREA WITH
A FEW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT EXCEPT FOR PATCHY FOG IN THE BASINS
AND VALLEYS. LCL IFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE AFFECTING KJAC...KBPI...
KPNA...KRIW AND KWRL. THE FOG WILL END AROUND 16Z.

A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD CLOUDS...AND VERY LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WHICH WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL BLOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN
JOHNSON COUNTY. AT THE KJAC AIRPORT LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP AROUND
16Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY WITH VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN BIGHORN
BASIN AND JOHNSON COUNTY COULD BECOME A MIXTURE OF RAIN OR SNOW IN
THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING AROUND 00Z SUNDAY. WIND GUSTS OVER
50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AT THE KBYG AIRPORT SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH PRESSURE LOOMS TO THE WEST WHILE A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS RIPPLE
AROUND THE HIGH AGAIN ON SATURDAY. THEY WILL HAVE MINOR IMPACT ON
THE AREA WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME BREEZES IN MOST
AREAS. THE MOUNTAINS MAY SEE SOME SNOW WITH A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF
A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN THE LOW ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN CODY
DISPATCH AND CASPER DISPATCH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED TO LAST INTO NEXT WEEK.
WE STILL CAN NOT GET MIXING HEIGHTS UP TOO MUCH...ESPECIALLY IN
LESS WIND PRONE AREAS. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH END POOR TO
FAIR SMOKE DISPERSAL POSSIBLE WITH EACH WAVE...EVEN IN THE LESS
WINDY AREAS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PS
LONG TERM...HATTINGS
AVIATION...PS/AR
FIRE WEATHER...PS








000
FXUS65 KRIW 240500
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1000 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY (ISSUED AT 158 PM MST)

MID LEVEL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
HAS BEEN PUSHING SOUTH FROM THE UPPER GREEN INTO THE THE SW
CORNER. ANOTHER AREA OVER CENTRAL WYO BROUGHT SOME FLURRIES FROM
RIW TO WEST OF CPR EARLIER AND WHAT`S LEFT OF THAT AREA IS PUSHING
THROUGH FROM NEAR SOUTH PASS EAST TO PATHFINDER. CLOUDS STILL
LINGERING FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND THIS AREAS OF PCPN. LOOKS LIKE
A LOT OF THE AREA WILL CLEAR OFF EARLY THIS EVENING AND THAT
COMBINED WITH SIGNIFICANT WARMING ALOFT MAY SET THE STAGE FOR SOME
BRIEF FOG OR LOW CLOUDS IN THE BASINS AND VALLEYS. THE BEST CHANCE
WILL PROBABLY BE IN THE WIND RIVER BASIN WITH A SECONDARY AREA OR
TWO IN THE UPPER GREEN AND WRL SWD. FURTHER NORTH...THE CLOUDS
START EDGING IN TOWARDS MORNING WHICH WILL LIMIT OR NOT ALLOW THE
FOG TO FORM. ONLY ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THOSE AREAS. LEADING EDGE OF
THE SHORTWAVE EDGES INTO THE NW BEFORE 12Z AND THEN ACROSS MOST OF
THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING. MODEST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVERALL
BUT ENOUGH FOR SOME HIGH COUNTY SNOW AND PROBABLY A COUPLE INCHES
FOR SOME OF THE FAR NRN MOUNTAINS FROM THE ABSAROKAS OVER TO THE
BIGHORNS. ALSO LOOKS LIKE A SHOT IN THE MT BORDER AREAS OF THE
BIGHORN BASIN AND ESPECIALLY IN JOHNSON COUNTY SATURDAY MORNING...
POSSIBLY MAKING IT DOWN TO CASPER AND CASPER MTN. ADDED IN SOME
SLIGHT CHANCES THERE FROM MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. WARM
ENOUGH THAT IT MAY BECOME SPRINKLES. ALSO LOOKS QUITE WINDY IN THE
BYG AREA AS THE DAY WEARS ON SO PREVIOUS FCST OF 50-55 MPH WINDS
STILL LOOKS GOOD. A FEW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THE EDGE OF
THIS SYSTEM A LITTLE FURTHER WEST. OTHERWISE...QUITE A BIT OF
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA LIKE TODAY. ANOTHER WEATHER INTEREST IS
SOME DECENT GAP FLOW AT TIMES IN THE CODY FOOTHILLS THROUGH
SATURDAY. NOTHING WARRANTING A HIGHLIGHT BUT WINDY NONETHELESS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

THE LAST IN THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. AGAIN...THE SYSTEM
IS MOISTURE STARVED SO ANY ACCUMULATIONS ONCE AGAIN WILL BE LIGHT.
ONE CONCERN IS SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE FAVORED AREAS LIKE CLARK AND
EVEN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN BIG HORN BASIN AND NEAR BUFFALO THAT
ARE FAVORED IN NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THIS POINT...700 MILLIBAR WINDS DO
NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ANY HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS BUT WE
WILL WATCH IT.

THEN STARTING ON SUNDAY...ANY SNOW SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AS THE WAVE
MOVES AWAY AND HEIGHTS START TO RISE . BY SUNDAY NIGHT...SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD END AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
FROM MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN HERE IS FOR POSSIBLE
INVERSIONS WITH THE WEAK FLOW. AT THIS POINT...THE WESTERN VALLEYS
WITH DEEPER SNOWPACK LOOK LIKE A BETTER BET FOR THAT. EAST OF THE
DIVIDE...EVEN IN THE BASINS MANY OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS HAVE LOST
SNOWPACK AND THE SNOW THAT IS LEFT IS OLDER...HENCE LIMITING ALBEDO.
THEREFORE...IT LOOKS UNSEASONABLE MILD. SOME MODELS ARE HINTING AT
SOME AREAS MAKING A RUN AT HIGHS OF 60 MONDAY OR TUESDAY...MAINLY
EAST OF THE BIGHORN RANGE.  NOT READY TO BITE ON THAT YET...BUT IT
CERTAINLY WILL NOT FEEL LIKE JANUARY. THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR
SOME LATE NIGHT FOG IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS AND BASIN AREAS WITH THE
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WITH ORIGINS IN THE BAJA WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...WE LIKE THE GFS BETTER SINCE IT HAS
BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH TIMING THAN THE EUROPEAN WHICH HAS JUMPED
AROUND THE PAST FEW RUNS. AT THIS POINT...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
MAJOR STORM WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY OUT WEST. THE SMALLEST CHANCES WOULD BE NEAR CASPER
WERE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COULD PREVENT PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING
THE GROUND. WE ALSO AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY WARM WITH
MANY EASTERN VALLEY AND BASINS LOCATIONS POSSIBLY SEEING MOSTLY RAIN
WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 6000 FEET OR SO. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT
EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK...OR AT LEAST THE
WORKWEEK FOR PEOPLE WHO DO NOT DO SHIFT WORK...WE WILL RETURN TO A
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW. BOTH THE EUROPEAN AND GFS SHOW AN ALBERTA CLIPPER DROPPING
DOWN FOR FRIDAY. THE BEST ENERGY REMAINS WELL TO THE EAST OF
WYOMING...ALTHOUGH IT COULD GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRUSH THE AREA WITH
A FEW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT EXCEPT FOR PATCHY FOG IN THE BASINS
AND VALLEYS. LCL IFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE AFFECTING KJAC...KBPI...
KPNA...KRIW AND KWRL. THE FOG WILL END AROUND 16Z.

A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD CLOUDS...AND VERY LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WHICH WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL BLOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN
JOHNSON COUNTY. AT THE KJAC AIRPORT LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP AROUND
16Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY WITH VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN BIGHORN
BASIN AND JOHNSON COUNTY COULD BECOME A MIXTURE OF RAIN OR SNOW IN
THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING AROUND 00Z SUNDAY. WIND GUSTS OVER
50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AT THE KBYG AIRPORT SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH PRESSURE LOOMS TO THE WEST WHILE A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS RIPPLE
AROUND THE HIGH AGAIN ON SATURDAY. THEY WILL HAVE MINOR IMPACT ON
THE AREA WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME BREEZES IN MOST
AREAS. THE MOUNTAINS MAY SEE SOME SNOW WITH A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF
A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN THE LOW ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN CODY
DISPATCH AND CASPER DISPATCH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED TO LAST INTO NEXT WEEK.
WE STILL CAN NOT GET MIXING HEIGHTS UP TOO MUCH...ESPECIALLY IN
LESS WIND PRONE AREAS. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH END POOR TO
FAIR SMOKE DISPERSAL POSSIBLE WITH EACH WAVE...EVEN IN THE LESS
WINDY AREAS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PS
LONG TERM...HATTINGS
AVIATION...PS/AR
FIRE WEATHER...PS








000
FXUS65 KRIW 240500
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1000 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY (ISSUED AT 158 PM MST)

MID LEVEL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
HAS BEEN PUSHING SOUTH FROM THE UPPER GREEN INTO THE THE SW
CORNER. ANOTHER AREA OVER CENTRAL WYO BROUGHT SOME FLURRIES FROM
RIW TO WEST OF CPR EARLIER AND WHAT`S LEFT OF THAT AREA IS PUSHING
THROUGH FROM NEAR SOUTH PASS EAST TO PATHFINDER. CLOUDS STILL
LINGERING FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND THIS AREAS OF PCPN. LOOKS LIKE
A LOT OF THE AREA WILL CLEAR OFF EARLY THIS EVENING AND THAT
COMBINED WITH SIGNIFICANT WARMING ALOFT MAY SET THE STAGE FOR SOME
BRIEF FOG OR LOW CLOUDS IN THE BASINS AND VALLEYS. THE BEST CHANCE
WILL PROBABLY BE IN THE WIND RIVER BASIN WITH A SECONDARY AREA OR
TWO IN THE UPPER GREEN AND WRL SWD. FURTHER NORTH...THE CLOUDS
START EDGING IN TOWARDS MORNING WHICH WILL LIMIT OR NOT ALLOW THE
FOG TO FORM. ONLY ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THOSE AREAS. LEADING EDGE OF
THE SHORTWAVE EDGES INTO THE NW BEFORE 12Z AND THEN ACROSS MOST OF
THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING. MODEST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVERALL
BUT ENOUGH FOR SOME HIGH COUNTY SNOW AND PROBABLY A COUPLE INCHES
FOR SOME OF THE FAR NRN MOUNTAINS FROM THE ABSAROKAS OVER TO THE
BIGHORNS. ALSO LOOKS LIKE A SHOT IN THE MT BORDER AREAS OF THE
BIGHORN BASIN AND ESPECIALLY IN JOHNSON COUNTY SATURDAY MORNING...
POSSIBLY MAKING IT DOWN TO CASPER AND CASPER MTN. ADDED IN SOME
SLIGHT CHANCES THERE FROM MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. WARM
ENOUGH THAT IT MAY BECOME SPRINKLES. ALSO LOOKS QUITE WINDY IN THE
BYG AREA AS THE DAY WEARS ON SO PREVIOUS FCST OF 50-55 MPH WINDS
STILL LOOKS GOOD. A FEW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THE EDGE OF
THIS SYSTEM A LITTLE FURTHER WEST. OTHERWISE...QUITE A BIT OF
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA LIKE TODAY. ANOTHER WEATHER INTEREST IS
SOME DECENT GAP FLOW AT TIMES IN THE CODY FOOTHILLS THROUGH
SATURDAY. NOTHING WARRANTING A HIGHLIGHT BUT WINDY NONETHELESS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

THE LAST IN THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. AGAIN...THE SYSTEM
IS MOISTURE STARVED SO ANY ACCUMULATIONS ONCE AGAIN WILL BE LIGHT.
ONE CONCERN IS SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE FAVORED AREAS LIKE CLARK AND
EVEN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN BIG HORN BASIN AND NEAR BUFFALO THAT
ARE FAVORED IN NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THIS POINT...700 MILLIBAR WINDS DO
NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ANY HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS BUT WE
WILL WATCH IT.

THEN STARTING ON SUNDAY...ANY SNOW SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AS THE WAVE
MOVES AWAY AND HEIGHTS START TO RISE . BY SUNDAY NIGHT...SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD END AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
FROM MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN HERE IS FOR POSSIBLE
INVERSIONS WITH THE WEAK FLOW. AT THIS POINT...THE WESTERN VALLEYS
WITH DEEPER SNOWPACK LOOK LIKE A BETTER BET FOR THAT. EAST OF THE
DIVIDE...EVEN IN THE BASINS MANY OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS HAVE LOST
SNOWPACK AND THE SNOW THAT IS LEFT IS OLDER...HENCE LIMITING ALBEDO.
THEREFORE...IT LOOKS UNSEASONABLE MILD. SOME MODELS ARE HINTING AT
SOME AREAS MAKING A RUN AT HIGHS OF 60 MONDAY OR TUESDAY...MAINLY
EAST OF THE BIGHORN RANGE.  NOT READY TO BITE ON THAT YET...BUT IT
CERTAINLY WILL NOT FEEL LIKE JANUARY. THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR
SOME LATE NIGHT FOG IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS AND BASIN AREAS WITH THE
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WITH ORIGINS IN THE BAJA WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...WE LIKE THE GFS BETTER SINCE IT HAS
BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH TIMING THAN THE EUROPEAN WHICH HAS JUMPED
AROUND THE PAST FEW RUNS. AT THIS POINT...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
MAJOR STORM WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY OUT WEST. THE SMALLEST CHANCES WOULD BE NEAR CASPER
WERE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COULD PREVENT PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING
THE GROUND. WE ALSO AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY WARM WITH
MANY EASTERN VALLEY AND BASINS LOCATIONS POSSIBLY SEEING MOSTLY RAIN
WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 6000 FEET OR SO. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT
EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK...OR AT LEAST THE
WORKWEEK FOR PEOPLE WHO DO NOT DO SHIFT WORK...WE WILL RETURN TO A
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW. BOTH THE EUROPEAN AND GFS SHOW AN ALBERTA CLIPPER DROPPING
DOWN FOR FRIDAY. THE BEST ENERGY REMAINS WELL TO THE EAST OF
WYOMING...ALTHOUGH IT COULD GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRUSH THE AREA WITH
A FEW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT EXCEPT FOR PATCHY FOG IN THE BASINS
AND VALLEYS. LCL IFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE AFFECTING KJAC...KBPI...
KPNA...KRIW AND KWRL. THE FOG WILL END AROUND 16Z.

A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD CLOUDS...AND VERY LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WHICH WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL BLOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN
JOHNSON COUNTY. AT THE KJAC AIRPORT LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP AROUND
16Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY WITH VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN BIGHORN
BASIN AND JOHNSON COUNTY COULD BECOME A MIXTURE OF RAIN OR SNOW IN
THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING AROUND 00Z SUNDAY. WIND GUSTS OVER
50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AT THE KBYG AIRPORT SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH PRESSURE LOOMS TO THE WEST WHILE A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS RIPPLE
AROUND THE HIGH AGAIN ON SATURDAY. THEY WILL HAVE MINOR IMPACT ON
THE AREA WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME BREEZES IN MOST
AREAS. THE MOUNTAINS MAY SEE SOME SNOW WITH A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF
A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN THE LOW ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN CODY
DISPATCH AND CASPER DISPATCH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED TO LAST INTO NEXT WEEK.
WE STILL CAN NOT GET MIXING HEIGHTS UP TOO MUCH...ESPECIALLY IN
LESS WIND PRONE AREAS. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH END POOR TO
FAIR SMOKE DISPERSAL POSSIBLE WITH EACH WAVE...EVEN IN THE LESS
WINDY AREAS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PS
LONG TERM...HATTINGS
AVIATION...PS/AR
FIRE WEATHER...PS








000
FXUS65 KCYS 240412
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
912 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 912 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

OVERNIGHT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AS SKIES HAVE BECOME
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS HAVE BEEN BEHAVING AS
WELL...WITH ARLINGTON/BORDEAUX THE ONLY AREAS OBSERVING WIND GUSTS
OF 25-30 MPH AT THIS HOUR. H85 KCAG-KCPR LLVL HEIGHT GRADIENT
FLARES UP TO AROUND 64 METERS AT 12Z SATURDAY...WHILE THE H7
GRADIENT REMAINS IN THE 40S. THIS SHOULD FAVOR AREAS SOUTHWEST OF
WHEATLAND ALONG HIGHWAY 34. AM NOT CONFIDENT THAT THESE STRONGER
WINDS WILL EVEN MAKE IT AS FAR EAST AS BORDEAUX...BUT DID BOOST
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH THERE DURING THE MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

BATCH OF CLOUD COVER CONTINUING TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY PCPN BEING PRODUCED.
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE WITH SKIES CLEARING ACROSS THE CWA THIS
EVENING WITH MINS ON THE CHILLY SIDE.

A RATHER QUIET WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED TO HOLD OVER THE AREA WITH
NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES OR SO BOTH DAYS WITH MILD
HIGHS OVER THE PLAINS...IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. THERE WILL BE
SOME GUSTY WINDS AS DECENT MID-LEVEL WINDS MIX DOWN BUT NOTHING
TOO STRONG. NEXT IMPULSE IN THE FLOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE CWA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

MONDAY WILL START OFF VERY WARM AND DRY AS A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE ROCKIES. THE INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH
BREEZY WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN PLACE TO NUDGE TEMPS INTO THE 50S
TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 40S OUT WEST. TUESDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER READINGS AS THE RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD...PERHAPS NEAR RECORD LEVELS IN A FEW LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST
AS A WEAK WAVE RIDES A TOP THE RIDGE AND ACROSS NORTHERN
WYOMING...WITH CLOUDS INCREASING ALSO FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN
THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THIS COULD SHAVE A
FEW DEGREES OFF THE TOP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN
AS IT APPROACHES THE CWA ON TUESDAY...BUT FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SFC
STRENGTHENING AND ADDING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO OVERALL FORCING
IN THE MOUNTAINS. THUS...EXPECT TO SEE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
SHOWERS SPREADING EAST ONTO THE PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REMAIN MILD ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND IN THE HIGH VALLEYS ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO LIKELY BE RAIN OR
RAIN-SNOW MIX. IN ADDITION...THE LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
STRENGTHEN TUES NIGHT- WED AHEAD OF THE WAVE WITH H7 WINDS AROUND
50KTS PROGGED BY THE GFS AT 12Z. SO COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
HIGH WINDS IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS AND PERHAPS IMMEDIATE LEE OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE WED MORNING WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS SPREADING
EAST INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 517 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT AREA TERMINALS THRU THE PERIOD.
BKN040-060 CLOUD DECK EXPECT AT KRWL-KLAR-KCYS THRU 02Z.
OTHERWISE...WILL SEE CLOUDS DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AGAIN AFTER 14Z ON SATURDAY
WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KNOTS EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A FEW ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON KBFF...KCDR AND
KAIA. TOO SPOTTY TO GET CUTE WITH TIMING OR LOCATION NOW...SO HAVE
TRENDED TAFS INTO VCSH.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

NO CONCERNS ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK OTHER THAN SOME
PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS.  REMAINING FACTORS NON-CRITICAL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CAH
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...CAH
FIRE WEATHER...RE



000
FXUS65 KCYS 240022
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
522 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

BATCH OF CLOUD COVER CONTINUING TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY PCPN BEING PRODUCED.
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE WITH SKIES CLEARING ACROSS THE CWA THIS
EVENING WITH MINS ON THE CHILLY SIDE.

A RATHER QUIET WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED TO HOLD OVER THE AREA WITH
NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES OR SO BOTH DAYS WITH MILD
HIGHS OVER THE PLAINS...IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. THERE WILL BE
SOME GUSTY WINDS AS DECENT MID-LEVEL WINDS MIX DOWN BUT NOTHING
TOO STRONG. NEXT IMPULSE IN THE FLOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE CWA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

MONDAY WILL START OFF VERY WARM AND DRY AS A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE ROCKIES. THE INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH
BREEZY WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN PLACE TO NUDGE TEMPS INTO THE 50S
TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 40S OUT WEST. TUESDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER READINGS AS THE RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD...PERHAPS NEAR RECORD LEVELS IN A FEW LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST
AS A WEAK WAVE RIDES A TOP THE RIDGE AND ACROSS NORTHERN
WYOMING...WITH CLOUDS INCREASING ALSO FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN
THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THIS COULD SHAVE A
FEW DEGREES OFF THE TOP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN
AS IT APPROACHES THE CWA ON TUESDAY...BUT FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SFC
STRENGTHENING AND ADDING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO OVERALL FORCING
IN THE MOUNTAINS. THUS...EXPECT TO SEE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
SHOWERS SPREADING EAST ONTO THE PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REMAIN MILD ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND IN THE HIGH VALLEYS ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO LIKELY BE RAIN OR
RAIN-SNOW MIX. IN ADDITION...THE LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
STRENGTHEN TUES NIGHT- WED AHEAD OF THE WAVE WITH H7 WINDS AROUND
50KTS PROGGED BY THE GFS AT 12Z. SO COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
HIGH WINDS IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS AND PERHAPS IMMEDIATE LEE OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE WED MORNING WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS SPREADING
EAST INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 517 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT AREA TERMINALS THRU THE PERIOD.
BKN040-060 CLOUD DECK EXPECT AT KRWL-KLAR-KCYS THRU 02Z.
OTHERWISE...WILL SEE CLOUDS DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AGAIN AFTER 14Z ON SATURDAY
WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KNOTS EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A FEW ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON KBFF...KCDR AND
KAIA. TOO SPOTTY TO GET CUTE WITH TIMING OR LOCATION NOW...SO HAVE
TRENDED TAFS INTO VCSH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

NO CONCERNS ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK OTHER THAN SOME
PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS.  REMAINING FACTORS NON-CRITICAL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...CAH
FIRE WEATHER...RE




000
FXUS65 KCYS 240022
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
522 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

BATCH OF CLOUD COVER CONTINUING TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY PCPN BEING PRODUCED.
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE WITH SKIES CLEARING ACROSS THE CWA THIS
EVENING WITH MINS ON THE CHILLY SIDE.

A RATHER QUIET WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED TO HOLD OVER THE AREA WITH
NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES OR SO BOTH DAYS WITH MILD
HIGHS OVER THE PLAINS...IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. THERE WILL BE
SOME GUSTY WINDS AS DECENT MID-LEVEL WINDS MIX DOWN BUT NOTHING
TOO STRONG. NEXT IMPULSE IN THE FLOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE CWA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

MONDAY WILL START OFF VERY WARM AND DRY AS A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE ROCKIES. THE INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH
BREEZY WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN PLACE TO NUDGE TEMPS INTO THE 50S
TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 40S OUT WEST. TUESDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER READINGS AS THE RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD...PERHAPS NEAR RECORD LEVELS IN A FEW LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST
AS A WEAK WAVE RIDES A TOP THE RIDGE AND ACROSS NORTHERN
WYOMING...WITH CLOUDS INCREASING ALSO FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN
THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THIS COULD SHAVE A
FEW DEGREES OFF THE TOP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN
AS IT APPROACHES THE CWA ON TUESDAY...BUT FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SFC
STRENGTHENING AND ADDING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO OVERALL FORCING
IN THE MOUNTAINS. THUS...EXPECT TO SEE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
SHOWERS SPREADING EAST ONTO THE PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REMAIN MILD ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND IN THE HIGH VALLEYS ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO LIKELY BE RAIN OR
RAIN-SNOW MIX. IN ADDITION...THE LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
STRENGTHEN TUES NIGHT- WED AHEAD OF THE WAVE WITH H7 WINDS AROUND
50KTS PROGGED BY THE GFS AT 12Z. SO COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
HIGH WINDS IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS AND PERHAPS IMMEDIATE LEE OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE WED MORNING WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS SPREADING
EAST INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 517 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT AREA TERMINALS THRU THE PERIOD.
BKN040-060 CLOUD DECK EXPECT AT KRWL-KLAR-KCYS THRU 02Z.
OTHERWISE...WILL SEE CLOUDS DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AGAIN AFTER 14Z ON SATURDAY
WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KNOTS EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A FEW ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON KBFF...KCDR AND
KAIA. TOO SPOTTY TO GET CUTE WITH TIMING OR LOCATION NOW...SO HAVE
TRENDED TAFS INTO VCSH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

NO CONCERNS ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK OTHER THAN SOME
PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS.  REMAINING FACTORS NON-CRITICAL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...CAH
FIRE WEATHER...RE



000
FXUS63 KUNR 232318
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
418 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 204 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES WITH A NE-SW TROUGH OVER MINNESOTA IOWA AND NEBRASKA. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FA THIS AFTN. THE UPPER ANALYSIS INDICATES RIDGING OVER THE
WEST COAST WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS...RESULTING IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WEST COAST.
A SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WHILE A SURFACE LOW WILL DROP FROM SRN SASKATCHEWAN IN THE
MORNING...INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY EARLY EVENING. THE
RESULTING TIGHTENING OF THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH LOW
LEVEL CAA OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL LEAD TO VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND ON THE
PLAINS EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS FROM LATE SAT MORNING INTO EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING. THEREFORE WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS.
THE BEST MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED ALONG AND NORTHEAST
OF THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...BUT A PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC
LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS SUGGESTS SOME -SHRASN MAY OCCUR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE NRN BLACK
HILLS...WHERE SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE AND CONTINUED WARMER THAN AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 204 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY...WITH SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW RAIN OR
MORNING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK
HILLS...AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST SD. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL IN
AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVING
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING EVEN
WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE 50S. SOME LOW 60S CERTAINLY LOOK POSSIBLE IN A FEW AREAS.
MODELS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...SOME PRECIP MAY HAVE
TO BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST...BUT WILL KEEP DRY FOR NOW. ZONAL FLOW
TAKES OVER AFTER THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH...ALLOWING FOR MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK. COOLER TEMPS AND CHANCES FOR
PCPN WILL LIKELY RETURN BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 416 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A STRONG
IMPULSE WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FA...WITH POTENTIAL
SCT MVFR CONDS OVER NE WY AND THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ESP ON THE
SD PLAINS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MST SATURDAY FOR SDZ001-002-
     012>014-025-026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...JC







000
FXUS63 KUNR 232318
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
418 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 204 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES WITH A NE-SW TROUGH OVER MINNESOTA IOWA AND NEBRASKA. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FA THIS AFTN. THE UPPER ANALYSIS INDICATES RIDGING OVER THE
WEST COAST WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS...RESULTING IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WEST COAST.
A SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WHILE A SURFACE LOW WILL DROP FROM SRN SASKATCHEWAN IN THE
MORNING...INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY EARLY EVENING. THE
RESULTING TIGHTENING OF THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH LOW
LEVEL CAA OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL LEAD TO VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND ON THE
PLAINS EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS FROM LATE SAT MORNING INTO EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING. THEREFORE WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS.
THE BEST MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED ALONG AND NORTHEAST
OF THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...BUT A PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC
LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS SUGGESTS SOME -SHRASN MAY OCCUR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE NRN BLACK
HILLS...WHERE SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE AND CONTINUED WARMER THAN AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 204 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY...WITH SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW RAIN OR
MORNING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK
HILLS...AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST SD. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL IN
AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVING
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING EVEN
WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE 50S. SOME LOW 60S CERTAINLY LOOK POSSIBLE IN A FEW AREAS.
MODELS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...SOME PRECIP MAY HAVE
TO BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST...BUT WILL KEEP DRY FOR NOW. ZONAL FLOW
TAKES OVER AFTER THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH...ALLOWING FOR MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK. COOLER TEMPS AND CHANCES FOR
PCPN WILL LIKELY RETURN BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 416 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A STRONG
IMPULSE WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FA...WITH POTENTIAL
SCT MVFR CONDS OVER NE WY AND THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ESP ON THE
SD PLAINS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MST SATURDAY FOR SDZ001-002-
     012>014-025-026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...JC







000
FXUS63 KUNR 232318
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
418 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 204 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES WITH A NE-SW TROUGH OVER MINNESOTA IOWA AND NEBRASKA. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FA THIS AFTN. THE UPPER ANALYSIS INDICATES RIDGING OVER THE
WEST COAST WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS...RESULTING IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WEST COAST.
A SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WHILE A SURFACE LOW WILL DROP FROM SRN SASKATCHEWAN IN THE
MORNING...INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY EARLY EVENING. THE
RESULTING TIGHTENING OF THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH LOW
LEVEL CAA OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL LEAD TO VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND ON THE
PLAINS EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS FROM LATE SAT MORNING INTO EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING. THEREFORE WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS.
THE BEST MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED ALONG AND NORTHEAST
OF THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...BUT A PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC
LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS SUGGESTS SOME -SHRASN MAY OCCUR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE NRN BLACK
HILLS...WHERE SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE AND CONTINUED WARMER THAN AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 204 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY...WITH SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW RAIN OR
MORNING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK
HILLS...AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST SD. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL IN
AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVING
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING EVEN
WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE 50S. SOME LOW 60S CERTAINLY LOOK POSSIBLE IN A FEW AREAS.
MODELS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...SOME PRECIP MAY HAVE
TO BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST...BUT WILL KEEP DRY FOR NOW. ZONAL FLOW
TAKES OVER AFTER THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH...ALLOWING FOR MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK. COOLER TEMPS AND CHANCES FOR
PCPN WILL LIKELY RETURN BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 416 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A STRONG
IMPULSE WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FA...WITH POTENTIAL
SCT MVFR CONDS OVER NE WY AND THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ESP ON THE
SD PLAINS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MST SATURDAY FOR SDZ001-002-
     012>014-025-026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...JC







000
FXUS63 KUNR 232318
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
418 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 204 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES WITH A NE-SW TROUGH OVER MINNESOTA IOWA AND NEBRASKA. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FA THIS AFTN. THE UPPER ANALYSIS INDICATES RIDGING OVER THE
WEST COAST WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS...RESULTING IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WEST COAST.
A SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WHILE A SURFACE LOW WILL DROP FROM SRN SASKATCHEWAN IN THE
MORNING...INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY EARLY EVENING. THE
RESULTING TIGHTENING OF THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH LOW
LEVEL CAA OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL LEAD TO VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND ON THE
PLAINS EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS FROM LATE SAT MORNING INTO EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING. THEREFORE WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS.
THE BEST MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED ALONG AND NORTHEAST
OF THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...BUT A PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC
LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS SUGGESTS SOME -SHRASN MAY OCCUR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE NRN BLACK
HILLS...WHERE SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE AND CONTINUED WARMER THAN AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 204 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY...WITH SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW RAIN OR
MORNING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK
HILLS...AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST SD. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL IN
AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVING
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING EVEN
WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE 50S. SOME LOW 60S CERTAINLY LOOK POSSIBLE IN A FEW AREAS.
MODELS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...SOME PRECIP MAY HAVE
TO BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST...BUT WILL KEEP DRY FOR NOW. ZONAL FLOW
TAKES OVER AFTER THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH...ALLOWING FOR MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK. COOLER TEMPS AND CHANCES FOR
PCPN WILL LIKELY RETURN BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 416 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A STRONG
IMPULSE WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FA...WITH POTENTIAL
SCT MVFR CONDS OVER NE WY AND THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ESP ON THE
SD PLAINS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MST SATURDAY FOR SDZ001-002-
     012>014-025-026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...JC







000
FXUS65 KCYS 232205
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
305 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

BATCH OF CLOUD COVER CONTINUING TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY PCPN BEING PRODUCED.
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE WITH SKIES CLEARING ACROSS THE CWA THIS
EVENING WITH MINS ON THE CHILLY SIDE.

A RATHER QUIET WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED TO HOLD OVER THE AREA WITH
NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES OR SO BOTH DAYS WITH MILD
HIGHS OVER THE PLAINS...IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. THERE WILL BE
SOME GUSTY WINDS AS DECENT MID-LEVEL WINDS MIX DOWN BUT NOTHING
TOO STRONG. NEXT IMPULSE IN THE FLOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE CWA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

MONDAY WILL START OFF VERY WARM AND DRY AS A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE ROCKIES. THE INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH
BREEZY WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN PLACE TO NUDGE TEMPS INTO THE 50S
TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 40S OUT WEST. TUESDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER READINGS AS THE RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD...PERHAPS NEAR RECORD LEVELS IN A FEW LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST
AS A WEAK WAVE RIDES A TOP THE RIDGE AND ACROSS NORTHERN
WYOMING...WITH CLOUDS INCREASING ALSO FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN
THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THIS COULD SHAVE A
FEW DEGREES OFF THE TOP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN
AS IT APPROACHES THE CWA ON TUESDAY...BUT FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SFC
STRENGTHENING AND ADDING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO OVERALL FORCING
IN THE MOUNTAINS. THUS...EXPECT TO SEE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
SHOWERS SPREADING EAST ONTO THE PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REMAIN MILD ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND IN THE HIGH VALLEYS ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO LIKELY BE RAIN OR
RAIN-SNOW MIX. IN ADDITION...THE LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
STRENGTHEN TUES NIGHT- WED AHEAD OF THE WAVE WITH H7 WINDS AROUND
50KTS PROGGED BY THE GFS AT 12Z. SO COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
HIGH WINDS IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS AND PERHAPS IMMEDIATE LEE OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE WED MORNING WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS SPREADING
EAST INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1104 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. SHORT-TERM MODELS KEEP CHANCES FOR SNOW NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KRWL.
KRWL COULD ALSO SEE MORE PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON
WITHIN A PLUME OF HIGHER LLVL MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE
MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS
ARE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THRU AROUND 00Z BEFORE DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

NO CONCERNS ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK OTHER THAN SOME
PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS.  REMAINING FACTORS NON-CRITICAL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...RE



000
FXUS65 KCYS 232205
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
305 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

BATCH OF CLOUD COVER CONTINUING TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY PCPN BEING PRODUCED.
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE WITH SKIES CLEARING ACROSS THE CWA THIS
EVENING WITH MINS ON THE CHILLY SIDE.

A RATHER QUIET WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED TO HOLD OVER THE AREA WITH
NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES OR SO BOTH DAYS WITH MILD
HIGHS OVER THE PLAINS...IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. THERE WILL BE
SOME GUSTY WINDS AS DECENT MID-LEVEL WINDS MIX DOWN BUT NOTHING
TOO STRONG. NEXT IMPULSE IN THE FLOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE CWA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

MONDAY WILL START OFF VERY WARM AND DRY AS A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE ROCKIES. THE INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH
BREEZY WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN PLACE TO NUDGE TEMPS INTO THE 50S
TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 40S OUT WEST. TUESDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER READINGS AS THE RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD...PERHAPS NEAR RECORD LEVELS IN A FEW LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST
AS A WEAK WAVE RIDES A TOP THE RIDGE AND ACROSS NORTHERN
WYOMING...WITH CLOUDS INCREASING ALSO FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN
THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THIS COULD SHAVE A
FEW DEGREES OFF THE TOP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN
AS IT APPROACHES THE CWA ON TUESDAY...BUT FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SFC
STRENGTHENING AND ADDING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO OVERALL FORCING
IN THE MOUNTAINS. THUS...EXPECT TO SEE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
SHOWERS SPREADING EAST ONTO THE PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REMAIN MILD ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND IN THE HIGH VALLEYS ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO LIKELY BE RAIN OR
RAIN-SNOW MIX. IN ADDITION...THE LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
STRENGTHEN TUES NIGHT- WED AHEAD OF THE WAVE WITH H7 WINDS AROUND
50KTS PROGGED BY THE GFS AT 12Z. SO COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
HIGH WINDS IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS AND PERHAPS IMMEDIATE LEE OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE WED MORNING WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS SPREADING
EAST INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1104 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. SHORT-TERM MODELS KEEP CHANCES FOR SNOW NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KRWL.
KRWL COULD ALSO SEE MORE PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON
WITHIN A PLUME OF HIGHER LLVL MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE
MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS
ARE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THRU AROUND 00Z BEFORE DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

NO CONCERNS ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK OTHER THAN SOME
PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS.  REMAINING FACTORS NON-CRITICAL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...RE



000
FXUS65 KCYS 232205
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
305 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

BATCH OF CLOUD COVER CONTINUING TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY PCPN BEING PRODUCED.
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE WITH SKIES CLEARING ACROSS THE CWA THIS
EVENING WITH MINS ON THE CHILLY SIDE.

A RATHER QUIET WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED TO HOLD OVER THE AREA WITH
NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES OR SO BOTH DAYS WITH MILD
HIGHS OVER THE PLAINS...IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. THERE WILL BE
SOME GUSTY WINDS AS DECENT MID-LEVEL WINDS MIX DOWN BUT NOTHING
TOO STRONG. NEXT IMPULSE IN THE FLOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE CWA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

MONDAY WILL START OFF VERY WARM AND DRY AS A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE ROCKIES. THE INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH
BREEZY WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN PLACE TO NUDGE TEMPS INTO THE 50S
TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 40S OUT WEST. TUESDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER READINGS AS THE RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD...PERHAPS NEAR RECORD LEVELS IN A FEW LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST
AS A WEAK WAVE RIDES A TOP THE RIDGE AND ACROSS NORTHERN
WYOMING...WITH CLOUDS INCREASING ALSO FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN
THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THIS COULD SHAVE A
FEW DEGREES OFF THE TOP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN
AS IT APPROACHES THE CWA ON TUESDAY...BUT FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SFC
STRENGTHENING AND ADDING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO OVERALL FORCING
IN THE MOUNTAINS. THUS...EXPECT TO SEE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
SHOWERS SPREADING EAST ONTO THE PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REMAIN MILD ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND IN THE HIGH VALLEYS ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO LIKELY BE RAIN OR
RAIN-SNOW MIX. IN ADDITION...THE LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
STRENGTHEN TUES NIGHT- WED AHEAD OF THE WAVE WITH H7 WINDS AROUND
50KTS PROGGED BY THE GFS AT 12Z. SO COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
HIGH WINDS IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS AND PERHAPS IMMEDIATE LEE OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE WED MORNING WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS SPREADING
EAST INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1104 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. SHORT-TERM MODELS KEEP CHANCES FOR SNOW NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KRWL.
KRWL COULD ALSO SEE MORE PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON
WITHIN A PLUME OF HIGHER LLVL MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE
MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS
ARE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THRU AROUND 00Z BEFORE DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

NO CONCERNS ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK OTHER THAN SOME
PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS.  REMAINING FACTORS NON-CRITICAL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...RE



000
FXUS65 KCYS 232205
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
305 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

BATCH OF CLOUD COVER CONTINUING TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY PCPN BEING PRODUCED.
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE WITH SKIES CLEARING ACROSS THE CWA THIS
EVENING WITH MINS ON THE CHILLY SIDE.

A RATHER QUIET WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED TO HOLD OVER THE AREA WITH
NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES OR SO BOTH DAYS WITH MILD
HIGHS OVER THE PLAINS...IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. THERE WILL BE
SOME GUSTY WINDS AS DECENT MID-LEVEL WINDS MIX DOWN BUT NOTHING
TOO STRONG. NEXT IMPULSE IN THE FLOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE CWA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

MONDAY WILL START OFF VERY WARM AND DRY AS A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE ROCKIES. THE INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH
BREEZY WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN PLACE TO NUDGE TEMPS INTO THE 50S
TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 40S OUT WEST. TUESDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER READINGS AS THE RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD...PERHAPS NEAR RECORD LEVELS IN A FEW LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST
AS A WEAK WAVE RIDES A TOP THE RIDGE AND ACROSS NORTHERN
WYOMING...WITH CLOUDS INCREASING ALSO FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN
THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THIS COULD SHAVE A
FEW DEGREES OFF THE TOP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN
AS IT APPROACHES THE CWA ON TUESDAY...BUT FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SFC
STRENGTHENING AND ADDING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO OVERALL FORCING
IN THE MOUNTAINS. THUS...EXPECT TO SEE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
SHOWERS SPREADING EAST ONTO THE PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REMAIN MILD ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND IN THE HIGH VALLEYS ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO LIKELY BE RAIN OR
RAIN-SNOW MIX. IN ADDITION...THE LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
STRENGTHEN TUES NIGHT- WED AHEAD OF THE WAVE WITH H7 WINDS AROUND
50KTS PROGGED BY THE GFS AT 12Z. SO COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
HIGH WINDS IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS AND PERHAPS IMMEDIATE LEE OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE WED MORNING WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS SPREADING
EAST INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1104 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. SHORT-TERM MODELS KEEP CHANCES FOR SNOW NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KRWL.
KRWL COULD ALSO SEE MORE PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON
WITHIN A PLUME OF HIGHER LLVL MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE
MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS
ARE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THRU AROUND 00Z BEFORE DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

NO CONCERNS ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK OTHER THAN SOME
PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS.  REMAINING FACTORS NON-CRITICAL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...RE



000
FXUS65 KCYS 232205
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
305 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

BATCH OF CLOUD COVER CONTINUING TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY PCPN BEING PRODUCED.
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE WITH SKIES CLEARING ACROSS THE CWA THIS
EVENING WITH MINS ON THE CHILLY SIDE.

A RATHER QUIET WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED TO HOLD OVER THE AREA WITH
NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES OR SO BOTH DAYS WITH MILD
HIGHS OVER THE PLAINS...IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. THERE WILL BE
SOME GUSTY WINDS AS DECENT MID-LEVEL WINDS MIX DOWN BUT NOTHING
TOO STRONG. NEXT IMPULSE IN THE FLOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE CWA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

MONDAY WILL START OFF VERY WARM AND DRY AS A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE ROCKIES. THE INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH
BREEZY WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN PLACE TO NUDGE TEMPS INTO THE 50S
TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 40S OUT WEST. TUESDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER READINGS AS THE RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD...PERHAPS NEAR RECORD LEVELS IN A FEW LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST
AS A WEAK WAVE RIDES A TOP THE RIDGE AND ACROSS NORTHERN
WYOMING...WITH CLOUDS INCREASING ALSO FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN
THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THIS COULD SHAVE A
FEW DEGREES OFF THE TOP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN
AS IT APPROACHES THE CWA ON TUESDAY...BUT FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SFC
STRENGTHENING AND ADDING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO OVERALL FORCING
IN THE MOUNTAINS. THUS...EXPECT TO SEE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
SHOWERS SPREADING EAST ONTO THE PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REMAIN MILD ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND IN THE HIGH VALLEYS ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO LIKELY BE RAIN OR
RAIN-SNOW MIX. IN ADDITION...THE LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
STRENGTHEN TUES NIGHT- WED AHEAD OF THE WAVE WITH H7 WINDS AROUND
50KTS PROGGED BY THE GFS AT 12Z. SO COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
HIGH WINDS IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS AND PERHAPS IMMEDIATE LEE OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE WED MORNING WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS SPREADING
EAST INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1104 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. SHORT-TERM MODELS KEEP CHANCES FOR SNOW NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KRWL.
KRWL COULD ALSO SEE MORE PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON
WITHIN A PLUME OF HIGHER LLVL MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE
MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS
ARE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THRU AROUND 00Z BEFORE DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

NO CONCERNS ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK OTHER THAN SOME
PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS.  REMAINING FACTORS NON-CRITICAL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...RE



000
FXUS63 KUNR 232125
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
225 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 204 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES WITH A NE-SW TROUGH OVER MINNESOTA IOWA AND NEBRASKA. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING BEEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FA THIS AFTN. THE UPPER ANALYSIS INDICATES RIDGING OVER THE
WEST COAST WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS...RESULTING IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WEST COAST.
A SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WHILE A SURFACE LOW WILL DROP FROM SRN SASKATCHEWAN IN THE
MORNING...INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY EARLY EVENING. THE
RESULTING TIGHTENING OF THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH LOW
LEVEL CAA OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL LEAD TO VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND ON THE
PLAINS EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS FROM LATE SAT MORNING INTO EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING. THEREFORE WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS.
THE BEST MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED ALONG AND NORTHEAST
OF THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...BUT A PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC
LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS SUGGESTS SOME -SHRASN MAY OCCUR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE NRN BLACK
HILLS...WHERE SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE AND CONTINUED WARMER THAN AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 204 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY...WITH SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW RAIN OR
MORNING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK
HILLS...AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST SD. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL IN
AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVING
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING EVEN
WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE 50S. SOME LOW 60S CERTAINLY LOOK POSSIBLE IN A FEW AREAS.
MODELS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...SOME PRECIP MAY HAVE
TO BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST...BUT WILL KEEP DRY FOR NOW. ZONAL FLOW
TAKES OVER AFTER THE SHORWAVE MOVES THROUGH...ALLOWING FOR MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK. COOLER TEMPS AND CHANCES FOR
PCPN WILL LIKELY RETURN BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 204 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MST SATURDAY FOR SDZ001-002-
     012>014-025-026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15







000
FXUS65 KRIW 232058
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
158 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
HAS BEEN PUSHING SOUTH FROM THE UPPER GREEN INTO THE THE SW
CORNER. ANOTHER AREA OVER CENTRAL WYO BROUGHT SOME FLURRIES FROM
RIW TO WEST OF CPR EARLIER AND WHAT`S LEFT OF THAT AREA IS PUSHING
THROUGH FROM NEAR SOUTH PASS EAST TO PATHFINDER. CLOUDS STILL
LINGERING FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND THIS AREAS OF PCPN. LOOKS LIKE
A LOT OF THE AREA WILL CLEAR OFF EARLY THIS EVENING AND THAT
COMBINED WITH SIGNIFICANT WARMING ALOFT MAY SET THE STAGE FOR SOME
BRIEF FOG OR LOW CLOUDS IN THE BASINS AND VALLEYS. THE BEST CHANCE
WILL PROBABLY BE IN THE WIND RIVER BASIN WITH A SECONDARY AREA OR
TWO IN THE UPPER GREEN AND WRL SWD. FURTHER NORTH...THE CLOUDS
START EDGING IN TOWARDS MORNING WHICH WILL LIMIT OR NOT ALLOW THE
FOG TO FORM. ONLY ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THOSE AREAS. LEADING EDGE OF
THE SHORTWAVE EDGES INTO THE NW BEFORE 12Z AND THEN ACROSS MOST OF
THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING. MODEST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVERALL
BUT ENOUGH FOR SOME HIGH COUNTY SNOW AND PROBABLY A COUPLE INCHES
FOR SOME OF THE FAR NRN MOUNTAINS FROM THE ABSAROKAS OVER TO THE
BIGHORNS. ALSO LOOKS LIKE A SHOT IN THE MT BORDER AREAS OF THE
BIGHORN BASIN AND ESPECIALLY IN JOHNSON COUNTY SATURDAY MORNING...
POSSIBLY MAKING IT DOWN TO CASPER AND CASPER MTN. ADDED IN SOME
SLIGHT CHANCES THERE FROM MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. WARM
ENOUGH THAT IT MAY BECOME SPRINKLES. ALSO LOOKS QUITE WINDY IN THE
BYG AREA AS THE DAY WEARS ON SO PREVIOUS FCST OF 50-55 MPH WINDS
STILL LOOKS GOOD. A FEW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THE EDGE OF
THIS SYSTEM A LITTLE FURTHER WEST. OTHERWISE...QUITE A BIT OF
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA LIKE TODAY. ANOTHER WEATHER INTEREST IS
SOME DECENT GAP FLOW AT TIMES IN THE CODY FOOTHILLS THROUGH
SATURDAY. NOTHING WARRANTING A HIGHLIGHT BUT WINDY NONETHELESS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

THE LAST IN THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. AGAIN...THE SYSTEM
IS MOISTURE STARVED SO ANY ACCUMULATIONS ONCE AGAIN WILL BE LIGHT.
ONE CONCERN IS SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE FAVORED AREAS LIKE CLARK AND
EVEN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN BIG HORN BASIN AND NEAR BUFFALO THAT
ARE FAVORED IN NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THIS POINT...700 MILLIBAR WINDS DO
NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ANY HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS BUT WE
WILL WATCH IT.

THEN STARTING ON SUNDAY...ANY SNOW SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AS THE WAVE
MOVES AWAY AND HEIGHTS START TO RISE . BY SUNDAY NIGHT...SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD END AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
FROM MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN HERE IS FOR POSSIBLE
INVERSIONS WITH THE WEAK FLOW. AT THIS POINT...THE WESTERN VALLEYS
WITH DEEPER SNOWPACK LOOK LIKE A BETTER BET FOR THAT. EAST OF THE
DIVIDE...EVEN IN THE BASINS MANY OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS HAVE LOST
SNOWPACK AND THE SNOW THAT IS LEFT IS OLDER...HENCE LIMITING ALBEDO.
THEREFORE...IT LOOKS UNSEASONABLE MILD. SOME MODELS ARE HINTING AT
SOME AREAS MAKING A RUN AT HIGHS OF 60 MONDAY OR TUESDAY...MAINLY
EAST OF THE BIGHORN RANGE.  NOT READY TO BITE ON THAT YET...BUT IT
CERTAINLY WILL NOT FEEL LIKE JANUARY. THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR
SOME LATE NIGHT FOG IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS AND BASIN AREAS WITH THE
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WITH ORIGINS IN THE BAJA WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...WE LIKE THE GFS BETTER SINCE IT HAS
BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH TIMING THAN THE EUROPEAN WHICH HAS JUMPED
AROUND THE PAST FEW RUNS. AT THIS POINT...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
MAJOR STORM WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY OUT WEST. THE SMALLEST CHANCES WOULD BE NEAR CASPER
WERE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COULD PREVENT PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING
THE GROUND. WE ALSO AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY WARM WITH
MANY EASTERN VALLEY AND BASINS LOCATIONS POSSIBLY SEEING MOSTLY RAIN
WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 6000 FEET OR SO. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT
EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK...OR AT LEAST THE
WORKWEEK FOR PEOPLE WHO DO NOT DO SHIFT WORK...WE WILL RETURN TO A
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW. BOTH THE EUROPEAN AND GFS SHOW AN ALBERTA CLIPPER DROPPING
DOWN FOR FRIDAY. THE BEST ENERGY REMAINS WELL TO THE EAST OF
WYOMING...ALTHOUGH IT COULD GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRUSH THE AREA WITH
A FEW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT EXCEPT FOR PATCHY FOG IN THE
BASINS AND VALLEYS OVERNIGHT WITH LCL IFR CONDS POSSIBLY AFFECTING
KJAC...KBPI...KPNA ...KRIW AND KWRL. IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY IN FROM THE NW WITH MORE
CLOUDS...AND VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF
THE AREA SATURDAY. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES
SATURDAY. STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL BLOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN BIGHORN BASIN AND JOHNSON COUNTY
COULD BECOME A MIXTURE OF RAIN OR SNOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
ENDING LATE IN THE DAY. WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AROUND
KBYG SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE LOOMS TO THE WEST WHILE A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS RIPPLE
AROUND THE HIGH AGAIN ON SATURDAY. THEY WILL HAVE MINOR IMPACT ON
THE AREA WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME BREEZES IN MOST
AREAS. THE MOUNTAINS MAY SEE SOME SNOW WITH A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF
A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN THE LOW ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN CODY
DISPATCH AND CASPER DISPATCH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED TO LAST INTO NEXT WEEK.
WE STILL CAN NOT GET MIXING HEIGHTS UP TOO MUCH...ESPECIALLY IN
LESS WIND PRONE AREAS. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH END POOR TO
FAIR SMOKE DISPERSAL POSSIBLE WITH EACH WAVE...EVEN IN THE LESS
WINDY AREAS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PS
LONG TERM...HATTINGS
AVIATION...PS
FIRE WEATHER...PS










000
FXUS65 KRIW 232058
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
158 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
HAS BEEN PUSHING SOUTH FROM THE UPPER GREEN INTO THE THE SW
CORNER. ANOTHER AREA OVER CENTRAL WYO BROUGHT SOME FLURRIES FROM
RIW TO WEST OF CPR EARLIER AND WHAT`S LEFT OF THAT AREA IS PUSHING
THROUGH FROM NEAR SOUTH PASS EAST TO PATHFINDER. CLOUDS STILL
LINGERING FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND THIS AREAS OF PCPN. LOOKS LIKE
A LOT OF THE AREA WILL CLEAR OFF EARLY THIS EVENING AND THAT
COMBINED WITH SIGNIFICANT WARMING ALOFT MAY SET THE STAGE FOR SOME
BRIEF FOG OR LOW CLOUDS IN THE BASINS AND VALLEYS. THE BEST CHANCE
WILL PROBABLY BE IN THE WIND RIVER BASIN WITH A SECONDARY AREA OR
TWO IN THE UPPER GREEN AND WRL SWD. FURTHER NORTH...THE CLOUDS
START EDGING IN TOWARDS MORNING WHICH WILL LIMIT OR NOT ALLOW THE
FOG TO FORM. ONLY ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THOSE AREAS. LEADING EDGE OF
THE SHORTWAVE EDGES INTO THE NW BEFORE 12Z AND THEN ACROSS MOST OF
THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING. MODEST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVERALL
BUT ENOUGH FOR SOME HIGH COUNTY SNOW AND PROBABLY A COUPLE INCHES
FOR SOME OF THE FAR NRN MOUNTAINS FROM THE ABSAROKAS OVER TO THE
BIGHORNS. ALSO LOOKS LIKE A SHOT IN THE MT BORDER AREAS OF THE
BIGHORN BASIN AND ESPECIALLY IN JOHNSON COUNTY SATURDAY MORNING...
POSSIBLY MAKING IT DOWN TO CASPER AND CASPER MTN. ADDED IN SOME
SLIGHT CHANCES THERE FROM MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. WARM
ENOUGH THAT IT MAY BECOME SPRINKLES. ALSO LOOKS QUITE WINDY IN THE
BYG AREA AS THE DAY WEARS ON SO PREVIOUS FCST OF 50-55 MPH WINDS
STILL LOOKS GOOD. A FEW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THE EDGE OF
THIS SYSTEM A LITTLE FURTHER WEST. OTHERWISE...QUITE A BIT OF
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA LIKE TODAY. ANOTHER WEATHER INTEREST IS
SOME DECENT GAP FLOW AT TIMES IN THE CODY FOOTHILLS THROUGH
SATURDAY. NOTHING WARRANTING A HIGHLIGHT BUT WINDY NONETHELESS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

THE LAST IN THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. AGAIN...THE SYSTEM
IS MOISTURE STARVED SO ANY ACCUMULATIONS ONCE AGAIN WILL BE LIGHT.
ONE CONCERN IS SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE FAVORED AREAS LIKE CLARK AND
EVEN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN BIG HORN BASIN AND NEAR BUFFALO THAT
ARE FAVORED IN NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THIS POINT...700 MILLIBAR WINDS DO
NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ANY HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS BUT WE
WILL WATCH IT.

THEN STARTING ON SUNDAY...ANY SNOW SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AS THE WAVE
MOVES AWAY AND HEIGHTS START TO RISE . BY SUNDAY NIGHT...SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD END AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
FROM MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN HERE IS FOR POSSIBLE
INVERSIONS WITH THE WEAK FLOW. AT THIS POINT...THE WESTERN VALLEYS
WITH DEEPER SNOWPACK LOOK LIKE A BETTER BET FOR THAT. EAST OF THE
DIVIDE...EVEN IN THE BASINS MANY OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS HAVE LOST
SNOWPACK AND THE SNOW THAT IS LEFT IS OLDER...HENCE LIMITING ALBEDO.
THEREFORE...IT LOOKS UNSEASONABLE MILD. SOME MODELS ARE HINTING AT
SOME AREAS MAKING A RUN AT HIGHS OF 60 MONDAY OR TUESDAY...MAINLY
EAST OF THE BIGHORN RANGE.  NOT READY TO BITE ON THAT YET...BUT IT
CERTAINLY WILL NOT FEEL LIKE JANUARY. THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR
SOME LATE NIGHT FOG IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS AND BASIN AREAS WITH THE
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WITH ORIGINS IN THE BAJA WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...WE LIKE THE GFS BETTER SINCE IT HAS
BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH TIMING THAN THE EUROPEAN WHICH HAS JUMPED
AROUND THE PAST FEW RUNS. AT THIS POINT...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
MAJOR STORM WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY OUT WEST. THE SMALLEST CHANCES WOULD BE NEAR CASPER
WERE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COULD PREVENT PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING
THE GROUND. WE ALSO AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY WARM WITH
MANY EASTERN VALLEY AND BASINS LOCATIONS POSSIBLY SEEING MOSTLY RAIN
WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 6000 FEET OR SO. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT
EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK...OR AT LEAST THE
WORKWEEK FOR PEOPLE WHO DO NOT DO SHIFT WORK...WE WILL RETURN TO A
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW. BOTH THE EUROPEAN AND GFS SHOW AN ALBERTA CLIPPER DROPPING
DOWN FOR FRIDAY. THE BEST ENERGY REMAINS WELL TO THE EAST OF
WYOMING...ALTHOUGH IT COULD GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRUSH THE AREA WITH
A FEW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT EXCEPT FOR PATCHY FOG IN THE
BASINS AND VALLEYS OVERNIGHT WITH LCL IFR CONDS POSSIBLY AFFECTING
KJAC...KBPI...KPNA ...KRIW AND KWRL. IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY IN FROM THE NW WITH MORE
CLOUDS...AND VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF
THE AREA SATURDAY. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES
SATURDAY. STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL BLOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN BIGHORN BASIN AND JOHNSON COUNTY
COULD BECOME A MIXTURE OF RAIN OR SNOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
ENDING LATE IN THE DAY. WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AROUND
KBYG SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE LOOMS TO THE WEST WHILE A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS RIPPLE
AROUND THE HIGH AGAIN ON SATURDAY. THEY WILL HAVE MINOR IMPACT ON
THE AREA WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME BREEZES IN MOST
AREAS. THE MOUNTAINS MAY SEE SOME SNOW WITH A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF
A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN THE LOW ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN CODY
DISPATCH AND CASPER DISPATCH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED TO LAST INTO NEXT WEEK.
WE STILL CAN NOT GET MIXING HEIGHTS UP TOO MUCH...ESPECIALLY IN
LESS WIND PRONE AREAS. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH END POOR TO
FAIR SMOKE DISPERSAL POSSIBLE WITH EACH WAVE...EVEN IN THE LESS
WINDY AREAS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PS
LONG TERM...HATTINGS
AVIATION...PS
FIRE WEATHER...PS









000
FXUS65 KCYS 231805
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1105 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

TWO WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN SHORT
SUCCESSION TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. NUMERICAL
MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO HAVING MORE MOISTURE SUCH THAT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING TODAY. SHOULD NOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING OF SNOW
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED INTO THE
PLAINS. LOWER ELEVATIONS INTO NEBRASKA MUCH LESS LIKELY TO SEE ANY
PRECIPITATION TODAY...BUT IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
TO SEE AN ISOLATED FLURRY OR SPRINKLE.

SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ONLY TO BE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUD COVER SATURDAY
AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. 12Z NAM
AND GFS SOLUTIONS MUCH DIFFERENT IN PLACEMENT OF THE MAIN ENERGY
WITH THE NAM FARTHER WEST. PLACEMENT WILL ONLY MAKE A MINOR
DIFFERENCE IN WHERE LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.
REGARDLESS OF WHICH SOLUTION IS CORRECT CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION ARE LOW AT BEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

A VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS COULD
CARRY OVER INTO MON MORNING AS THE GFS SUGGESTS A FAIRLY STRONG H85
HEIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE PLAINS AT 12Z. THE EASTERN WIND PRONE AREAS
OF BORDEAUX AND THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE WOULD HAVE THE BEST SHOT
AT HITTING CRITERIA AT THAT TIME...BUT THE STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT IS
PROGGED TO BE WELL TO THE EAST BY THEN. DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING VERY
WIDESPREAD OUT OF THIS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
UTAH AND SOUTHERN IDAHO. OUR CWA WILL BE ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF
THIS FEATURE...GIVING WAY TO EXCELLENT LOW-LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. H7 TEMP PROGS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
4-5 DEG C AT 00Z TUE. MEX GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A HIGH OF 65 AT CHEYENNE
ON MON...AND THAT IS VERY POSSIBLE UNLESS WE GET SOME CIRRUS ON THE
EDGE OF THE RIDGE. TRENDED A BIT WARMER THERE.

STAYING WARM THROUGH MIDWEEK EVEN THOUGH UPPER RIDGING WILL START TO
BREAK DOWN. MODELS BRING AN ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. SHOULD BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND OROGRAPHICS FOR ACCUMULATING MOUNTAIN SNOWS. BUMPED UP
POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE SNOWIES AND SIERRA MADRES
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. WARM AND WINDY AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE. GRADIENTS STRENGTHEN
MARKEDLY OVER THE PLAINS WITH AROUND 50 KTS OF H75 FLOW AFTER 12Z
WED. GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND PLAN VIEW CHARTS SHOW NEAR ADIABATIC
PROFILES UP TO 1-2 KM WITH 50 KTS AVAILABLE TO MIX OVER CYS. THIS
FAVORS A HIGH WIND EVENT...PRIMARILY OVER BORDEAUX AND THE SOUTHERN
LARAMIE RANGE WITH POTENTIAL FOR WINDS MOVING ONTO THE PLAINS WITH A
DEVELOPING BORA BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT. WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO
WATCH THIS AS WE GET CLOSER. THURSDAY WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS WARM AS
THERMAL PROFILES COOL CONSIDERABLY POST-FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1104 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. SHORT-TERM MODELS KEEP CHANCES FOR SNOW NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KRWL.
KRWL COULD ALSO SEE MORE PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON
WITHIN A PLUME OF HIGHER LLVL MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE
MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS
ARE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THRU AROUND 00Z BEFORE DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 247 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING TODAY
WITH VERY MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS IF ANY. DRY WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...SML




000
FXUS65 KCYS 231805
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1105 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

TWO WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN SHORT
SUCCESSION TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. NUMERICAL
MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO HAVING MORE MOISTURE SUCH THAT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING TODAY. SHOULD NOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING OF SNOW
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED INTO THE
PLAINS. LOWER ELEVATIONS INTO NEBRASKA MUCH LESS LIKELY TO SEE ANY
PRECIPITATION TODAY...BUT IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
TO SEE AN ISOLATED FLURRY OR SPRINKLE.

SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ONLY TO BE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUD COVER SATURDAY
AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. 12Z NAM
AND GFS SOLUTIONS MUCH DIFFERENT IN PLACEMENT OF THE MAIN ENERGY
WITH THE NAM FARTHER WEST. PLACEMENT WILL ONLY MAKE A MINOR
DIFFERENCE IN WHERE LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.
REGARDLESS OF WHICH SOLUTION IS CORRECT CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION ARE LOW AT BEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

A VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS COULD
CARRY OVER INTO MON MORNING AS THE GFS SUGGESTS A FAIRLY STRONG H85
HEIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE PLAINS AT 12Z. THE EASTERN WIND PRONE AREAS
OF BORDEAUX AND THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE WOULD HAVE THE BEST SHOT
AT HITTING CRITERIA AT THAT TIME...BUT THE STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT IS
PROGGED TO BE WELL TO THE EAST BY THEN. DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING VERY
WIDESPREAD OUT OF THIS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
UTAH AND SOUTHERN IDAHO. OUR CWA WILL BE ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF
THIS FEATURE...GIVING WAY TO EXCELLENT LOW-LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. H7 TEMP PROGS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
4-5 DEG C AT 00Z TUE. MEX GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A HIGH OF 65 AT CHEYENNE
ON MON...AND THAT IS VERY POSSIBLE UNLESS WE GET SOME CIRRUS ON THE
EDGE OF THE RIDGE. TRENDED A BIT WARMER THERE.

STAYING WARM THROUGH MIDWEEK EVEN THOUGH UPPER RIDGING WILL START TO
BREAK DOWN. MODELS BRING AN ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. SHOULD BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND OROGRAPHICS FOR ACCUMULATING MOUNTAIN SNOWS. BUMPED UP
POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE SNOWIES AND SIERRA MADRES
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. WARM AND WINDY AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE. GRADIENTS STRENGTHEN
MARKEDLY OVER THE PLAINS WITH AROUND 50 KTS OF H75 FLOW AFTER 12Z
WED. GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND PLAN VIEW CHARTS SHOW NEAR ADIABATIC
PROFILES UP TO 1-2 KM WITH 50 KTS AVAILABLE TO MIX OVER CYS. THIS
FAVORS A HIGH WIND EVENT...PRIMARILY OVER BORDEAUX AND THE SOUTHERN
LARAMIE RANGE WITH POTENTIAL FOR WINDS MOVING ONTO THE PLAINS WITH A
DEVELOPING BORA BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT. WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO
WATCH THIS AS WE GET CLOSER. THURSDAY WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS WARM AS
THERMAL PROFILES COOL CONSIDERABLY POST-FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1104 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. SHORT-TERM MODELS KEEP CHANCES FOR SNOW NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KRWL.
KRWL COULD ALSO SEE MORE PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON
WITHIN A PLUME OF HIGHER LLVL MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE
MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS
ARE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THRU AROUND 00Z BEFORE DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 247 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING TODAY
WITH VERY MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS IF ANY. DRY WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...SML



000
FXUS63 KUNR 231742
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1042 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

CLOUD COVER IS DECREASING FROM N-S AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY
FROM THE AREA. UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE WIND SPEEDS ON THE SD
PLAINS AND REDUCE CLOUD COVER FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST MN INTO
CENTRAL WY. WATER VAPOR SHOWED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US
WITH A SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN ID...MOVING SOUTHEAST. THIS WAVE IS
FURTHER WEST THAN EXPECTED. RESULT WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHEAST WY/BLACK HILLS THIS MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. CONSIDERED DROPPING POPS
ALTOGETHER...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK QG-FORCING
COULD STILL SUPPORT WEAK -SHRASN. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL AVERAGE
5-10F ABOVE NORMAL. BREEZY SPOTS EXPECTED GIVEN 850MB WIND SPEEDS
OF 20-30KTS AND SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO BRING SOME OF
THAT TO THE GROUND.

TONIGHT/SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM
CENTRAL AB INTO THE MIDWEST. LOW PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THIS TRACK.
BEST MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG/NORTHEAST OF TRACK...BUT PERIOD
OF SYNOPTIC LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS SUGGESTS SOME PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE CWA. SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK
HILLS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE AND CONTINUED PLEASANT.
BREEZY SPOTS EXPECTED AGAIN DURING PEAK DIURNAL CYCLE SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CROSS THE
AREA ON SUNDAY...WITH CLOUDS AND A FEW RAIN OR MORNING SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER FAR NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST SD. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK...FLATTENING OUT AS IT REACHES THE
PLAINS MIDWEEK. THIS WILL BRING EVEN WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA FOR
THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
50S. SOME 60S CERTAINLY LOOK POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN SD. THE FLATTENING RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR MORE
UNSETTLED WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW LATE IN THE WEEK. MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPS AND CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL LIKELY RETURN BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1017 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS...WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...15







000
FXUS63 KUNR 231742
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1042 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

CLOUD COVER IS DECREASING FROM N-S AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY
FROM THE AREA. UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE WIND SPEEDS ON THE SD
PLAINS AND REDUCE CLOUD COVER FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST MN INTO
CENTRAL WY. WATER VAPOR SHOWED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US
WITH A SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN ID...MOVING SOUTHEAST. THIS WAVE IS
FURTHER WEST THAN EXPECTED. RESULT WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHEAST WY/BLACK HILLS THIS MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. CONSIDERED DROPPING POPS
ALTOGETHER...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK QG-FORCING
COULD STILL SUPPORT WEAK -SHRASN. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL AVERAGE
5-10F ABOVE NORMAL. BREEZY SPOTS EXPECTED GIVEN 850MB WIND SPEEDS
OF 20-30KTS AND SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO BRING SOME OF
THAT TO THE GROUND.

TONIGHT/SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM
CENTRAL AB INTO THE MIDWEST. LOW PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THIS TRACK.
BEST MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG/NORTHEAST OF TRACK...BUT PERIOD
OF SYNOPTIC LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS SUGGESTS SOME PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE CWA. SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK
HILLS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE AND CONTINUED PLEASANT.
BREEZY SPOTS EXPECTED AGAIN DURING PEAK DIURNAL CYCLE SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CROSS THE
AREA ON SUNDAY...WITH CLOUDS AND A FEW RAIN OR MORNING SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER FAR NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST SD. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK...FLATTENING OUT AS IT REACHES THE
PLAINS MIDWEEK. THIS WILL BRING EVEN WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA FOR
THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
50S. SOME 60S CERTAINLY LOOK POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN SD. THE FLATTENING RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR MORE
UNSETTLED WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW LATE IN THE WEEK. MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPS AND CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL LIKELY RETURN BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1017 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS...WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...15







000
FXUS63 KUNR 231742
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1042 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

CLOUD COVER IS DECREASING FROM N-S AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY
FROM THE AREA. UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE WIND SPEEDS ON THE SD
PLAINS AND REDUCE CLOUD COVER FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST MN INTO
CENTRAL WY. WATER VAPOR SHOWED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US
WITH A SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN ID...MOVING SOUTHEAST. THIS WAVE IS
FURTHER WEST THAN EXPECTED. RESULT WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHEAST WY/BLACK HILLS THIS MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. CONSIDERED DROPPING POPS
ALTOGETHER...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK QG-FORCING
COULD STILL SUPPORT WEAK -SHRASN. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL AVERAGE
5-10F ABOVE NORMAL. BREEZY SPOTS EXPECTED GIVEN 850MB WIND SPEEDS
OF 20-30KTS AND SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO BRING SOME OF
THAT TO THE GROUND.

TONIGHT/SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM
CENTRAL AB INTO THE MIDWEST. LOW PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THIS TRACK.
BEST MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG/NORTHEAST OF TRACK...BUT PERIOD
OF SYNOPTIC LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS SUGGESTS SOME PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE CWA. SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK
HILLS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE AND CONTINUED PLEASANT.
BREEZY SPOTS EXPECTED AGAIN DURING PEAK DIURNAL CYCLE SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CROSS THE
AREA ON SUNDAY...WITH CLOUDS AND A FEW RAIN OR MORNING SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER FAR NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST SD. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK...FLATTENING OUT AS IT REACHES THE
PLAINS MIDWEEK. THIS WILL BRING EVEN WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA FOR
THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
50S. SOME 60S CERTAINLY LOOK POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN SD. THE FLATTENING RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR MORE
UNSETTLED WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW LATE IN THE WEEK. MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPS AND CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL LIKELY RETURN BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1017 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS...WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...15







000
FXUS63 KUNR 231742
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1042 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

CLOUD COVER IS DECREASING FROM N-S AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY
FROM THE AREA. UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE WIND SPEEDS ON THE SD
PLAINS AND REDUCE CLOUD COVER FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST MN INTO
CENTRAL WY. WATER VAPOR SHOWED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US
WITH A SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN ID...MOVING SOUTHEAST. THIS WAVE IS
FURTHER WEST THAN EXPECTED. RESULT WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHEAST WY/BLACK HILLS THIS MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. CONSIDERED DROPPING POPS
ALTOGETHER...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK QG-FORCING
COULD STILL SUPPORT WEAK -SHRASN. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL AVERAGE
5-10F ABOVE NORMAL. BREEZY SPOTS EXPECTED GIVEN 850MB WIND SPEEDS
OF 20-30KTS AND SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO BRING SOME OF
THAT TO THE GROUND.

TONIGHT/SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM
CENTRAL AB INTO THE MIDWEST. LOW PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THIS TRACK.
BEST MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG/NORTHEAST OF TRACK...BUT PERIOD
OF SYNOPTIC LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS SUGGESTS SOME PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE CWA. SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK
HILLS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE AND CONTINUED PLEASANT.
BREEZY SPOTS EXPECTED AGAIN DURING PEAK DIURNAL CYCLE SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CROSS THE
AREA ON SUNDAY...WITH CLOUDS AND A FEW RAIN OR MORNING SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER FAR NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST SD. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK...FLATTENING OUT AS IT REACHES THE
PLAINS MIDWEEK. THIS WILL BRING EVEN WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA FOR
THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
50S. SOME 60S CERTAINLY LOOK POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN SD. THE FLATTENING RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR MORE
UNSETTLED WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW LATE IN THE WEEK. MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPS AND CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL LIKELY RETURN BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1017 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS...WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...15







000
FXUS65 KRIW 231732
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1032 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD KEEPS A DIRTY RIDGE TO
OUR WEST WITH WYOMING IN THE PATH OF SEVERAL WEAK WAVES RIDING THE
PERIPHERY.

THE FIRST SHORT WAVE IS ALREADY MOVING INTO FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. TYPICAL ISENTROPIC SIGNATURES ARE NOT TOO STRONG WITH THIS
FIRST WAVE...SPECIFIC HUMIDITY IS HIGH BUT THE UPGLIDE PATTERN IS
NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG AS THE FLOW IS MORE PARALLEL TO THE
ISENTROPES THIS MORNING. THERE IS HOWEVER SOME QG FORCING AT THE
FRONT OF THE WAVE THAT COULD STIR SOMETHING UP. LOOKING UPSTREAM
THERE IS NOT A LOT SHOWING UP ON THE MONTANA OR IDAHO RADARS. WENT
AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS A BIT ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING AS THERE COULD
BE SOMETHING THAT MAKES IT TO THE GROUND...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME HIGHER POPS IN JOHNSON COUNTY WHERE THERE
ACTUALLY IS A WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SIGNATURE THIS MORNING. THIS
IS PROBABLY PRETTY GENEROUS GIVEN HOW LITTLE THIS WAVE HAS GOING FOR
IT. OVERALL THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE MORE THAN SOME
OVERCAST SKIES FOR MOST. THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING BEHIND THE WAVE
WITH ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR AND MOSTLY NIGHT EXPECTED TONIGHT...ALONG
WITH WAA AND POTENTIALLY MORE BASIN FOG FOR SATURDAY MORNING. KEPT
THE FOG OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP THINGS FROM GETTING TOO STAGNANT BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME RIVER VALLEYS FOG IN BRIEFLY.

THE NEXT WAVE IS ON THE DOORSTEP FOR SATURDAY WITH FLOW SHIFTING
NORTHWEST. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A COLD POOL...NO QG FORCING TO
SPEAK OF WITH THIS ONE EITHER. HOWEVER THERE IS A MUCH BETTER
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SIGNATURE WITH THIS ONE IN ADDITION TO A LITTLE
HELP FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET. THERE COULD BE A FEW
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A HIGH
IMPACT SYSTEM IN MOST AREAS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN OF A BRIEF WIND
EVENT AROUND BUFFALO AND PINEY CREEK AS FLOW ALIGNS TO THAT SWEET
SPOT FOR THIS AREA...A FEW WIND GUSTS COULD EXCEED 55MPH ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...700MB FLOW IS DEFINITELY STRONGER TO THE NORTH AND
EAST BUT WITH THE JET MOVING OVERHEAD THIS SITUATION WILL BE WATCHED
TO SEE IF THAT STRONGER FLOW TRIES TO MIGRATE WEST OR IF THE WRONG
SIDE OF THE JET MOVES INTO POSITION AND BEGINS TO ENACT MORE
DOWNWARD FORCING. OTHERWISE...LEE SIDE TROUGHING HOLDS AT THE
SURFACE WITH DECENT MIXING OF MILD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. MANY LOCATIONS EAST OF THE DIVIDE WILL
BE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH MANY AREAS TOPPING
OUT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

THINGS BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR WEST
BEGINS TO MIGRATE EASTWARD. IT WILL BRING IN SOME VERY MILD AIR FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...AROUND +4C AT H7 INTO THE WEST BY SUNDAY
EVENING...WHICH IS IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A DECENT GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THE DAY AT THE SURFACE AS THE HIGH TRIES TO MOVE EAST...THIS
WILL KEEP THINGS MIXED IN THE MORE WIND PRONE AREAS AND WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO A RATHER PLEASANT AND MILD DAY WITH SOME OF THE BREEZIER
SPOTS SOARING INTO THE LOW 50S. HOWEVER AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER
OVERNIGHT...THE WINDS WILL CALM A BIT AND THAT COMBINED WITH THE WAA
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME OVERNIGHT VALLEY AND BASIN FOG LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

SYNOPSIS...UNSEASONABLE MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS UNDER A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE AREA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...THOUGH STEEP INVERSIONS WILL KEEP COLD AIR TRAPPED IN
WESTERN VALLEYS.  A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH.  AN UNSETTLED AND COOLER
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM ON THURSDAY WITH SOME
LINGERING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

DISCUSSION...NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NW INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON MONDAY WITH
5-6C H7 THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS WYOMING AND LIGHT WIND.  THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE WITH THIS VERTICAL PROFILE WILL BE THE STEEPNESS
OF SHALLOW INVERSIONS OVER THE CENTRAL BASINS AND FAR WEST VALLEYS.
FULL MIXING OF THIS COLUMN WOULD PUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL INTO
THE 60S AT 5KFT WITH NORTHEAST JOHNSON COUNTY AND THE CODY FOOTHILLS
SET AT ONLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW FULL MIXING.  SNOW COVER WILL BE THE
BIGGEST FACTOR ON HOW WARM LOWER CENTRAL BASINS GET IN THIS PATTERN
WITH BETTER MIXING OVER THE WEEKEND LIKELY TO FURTHER ELIMINATE MUCH
OF THE OLD SNOW.  SETTING HIGHS IN THESE AREAS AROUND 20 DEGREES
BELOW FULL MIXING POTENTIAL (MOSTLY 40S FOR HIGHS) SEEMS
REASONABLE.  THE WESTERN VALLEYS WILL SEE THE STEEPEST INVERSIONS
AND THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG FORMATION MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

BAJA UPPER LOW WILL GET KICKED INTO BACKSIDE OF RIDGE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN BEFORE TURNING EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.  GFS CONTINUES TO BE ON
THE FAST AND STRONGER END OF GUIDANCE WITH SYSTEM IMPACTING WYOMING
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.  ECMWF KEEPS THE MAIN TROUGH
BACK OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...SHEARING IT OUT
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY.  SLOWER SOLUTION ALMOST ALWAYS WINS
OUT IN A SW LOW KICKER/KICKEE SCENARIO.  THIS SYSTEM...GIVEN ITS
ORIGINS...WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM (SNOW LEVELS AROUND 6KFT) AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT.

UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY PUTTING WYOMING IN NW FLOW.  SOME WEAK
RIPPLES IN THIS FLOW WILL KEEP A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND NORTH.  BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A STRONGER CLIPPER PUSHING
ACROSS NE WYOMING JUST OUTSIDE THIS PERIOD ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE COWBOY STATE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM SUBLETTE
COUNTY OVER TO NATRONA COUNTY MAINLY. CIGS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
030 TO 060 WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDS DURING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED OFF AND ON DURING THE DAY.
CONDS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FROM ABOUT 21Z
THROUGH 03Z. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP IN THE BASINS AND VALLEYS
OVERNIGHT WITH LCL IFR CONDS POSSIBLY AFFECTING KJAC...KBPI...KPNA
...KRIW AND KWRL. IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
MOVE QUICKLY IN FROM THE NW WITH MORE CLOUDS...AND VERY LIGHT SNOW
OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH PRESSURE LOOMS TO THE WEST WHILE A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS RIPPLE
AROUND THE HIGH TODAY AND SATURDAY. THEY WILL HAVE MINOR IMPACT ON
THE AREA WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME BREEZES IN MOST AREAS.
THE MOUNTAINS MAY SEE SOME SNOW WITH A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWER IN THE LOW ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN CODY DISPATCH AND
CASPER DISPATCH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
WARMING TREND EXPECTED TO LAST INTO NEXT WEEK. WE STILL CAN NOT GET
MIXING HEIGHTS UP TOO MUCH...ESPECIALLY IN LESS WIND PRONE AREAS.
HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH END POOR TO FAIR SMOKE DISPERSAL
POSSIBLE WITH EACH WAVE...EVEN IN THE LESS WINDY AREAS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ALLEN
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...PS
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN








000
FXUS65 KRIW 231732
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1032 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD KEEPS A DIRTY RIDGE TO
OUR WEST WITH WYOMING IN THE PATH OF SEVERAL WEAK WAVES RIDING THE
PERIPHERY.

THE FIRST SHORT WAVE IS ALREADY MOVING INTO FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. TYPICAL ISENTROPIC SIGNATURES ARE NOT TOO STRONG WITH THIS
FIRST WAVE...SPECIFIC HUMIDITY IS HIGH BUT THE UPGLIDE PATTERN IS
NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG AS THE FLOW IS MORE PARALLEL TO THE
ISENTROPES THIS MORNING. THERE IS HOWEVER SOME QG FORCING AT THE
FRONT OF THE WAVE THAT COULD STIR SOMETHING UP. LOOKING UPSTREAM
THERE IS NOT A LOT SHOWING UP ON THE MONTANA OR IDAHO RADARS. WENT
AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS A BIT ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING AS THERE COULD
BE SOMETHING THAT MAKES IT TO THE GROUND...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME HIGHER POPS IN JOHNSON COUNTY WHERE THERE
ACTUALLY IS A WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SIGNATURE THIS MORNING. THIS
IS PROBABLY PRETTY GENEROUS GIVEN HOW LITTLE THIS WAVE HAS GOING FOR
IT. OVERALL THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE MORE THAN SOME
OVERCAST SKIES FOR MOST. THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING BEHIND THE WAVE
WITH ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR AND MOSTLY NIGHT EXPECTED TONIGHT...ALONG
WITH WAA AND POTENTIALLY MORE BASIN FOG FOR SATURDAY MORNING. KEPT
THE FOG OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP THINGS FROM GETTING TOO STAGNANT BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME RIVER VALLEYS FOG IN BRIEFLY.

THE NEXT WAVE IS ON THE DOORSTEP FOR SATURDAY WITH FLOW SHIFTING
NORTHWEST. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A COLD POOL...NO QG FORCING TO
SPEAK OF WITH THIS ONE EITHER. HOWEVER THERE IS A MUCH BETTER
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SIGNATURE WITH THIS ONE IN ADDITION TO A LITTLE
HELP FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET. THERE COULD BE A FEW
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A HIGH
IMPACT SYSTEM IN MOST AREAS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN OF A BRIEF WIND
EVENT AROUND BUFFALO AND PINEY CREEK AS FLOW ALIGNS TO THAT SWEET
SPOT FOR THIS AREA...A FEW WIND GUSTS COULD EXCEED 55MPH ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...700MB FLOW IS DEFINITELY STRONGER TO THE NORTH AND
EAST BUT WITH THE JET MOVING OVERHEAD THIS SITUATION WILL BE WATCHED
TO SEE IF THAT STRONGER FLOW TRIES TO MIGRATE WEST OR IF THE WRONG
SIDE OF THE JET MOVES INTO POSITION AND BEGINS TO ENACT MORE
DOWNWARD FORCING. OTHERWISE...LEE SIDE TROUGHING HOLDS AT THE
SURFACE WITH DECENT MIXING OF MILD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. MANY LOCATIONS EAST OF THE DIVIDE WILL
BE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH MANY AREAS TOPPING
OUT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

THINGS BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR WEST
BEGINS TO MIGRATE EASTWARD. IT WILL BRING IN SOME VERY MILD AIR FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...AROUND +4C AT H7 INTO THE WEST BY SUNDAY
EVENING...WHICH IS IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A DECENT GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THE DAY AT THE SURFACE AS THE HIGH TRIES TO MOVE EAST...THIS
WILL KEEP THINGS MIXED IN THE MORE WIND PRONE AREAS AND WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO A RATHER PLEASANT AND MILD DAY WITH SOME OF THE BREEZIER
SPOTS SOARING INTO THE LOW 50S. HOWEVER AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER
OVERNIGHT...THE WINDS WILL CALM A BIT AND THAT COMBINED WITH THE WAA
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME OVERNIGHT VALLEY AND BASIN FOG LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

SYNOPSIS...UNSEASONABLE MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS UNDER A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE AREA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...THOUGH STEEP INVERSIONS WILL KEEP COLD AIR TRAPPED IN
WESTERN VALLEYS.  A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH.  AN UNSETTLED AND COOLER
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM ON THURSDAY WITH SOME
LINGERING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

DISCUSSION...NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NW INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON MONDAY WITH
5-6C H7 THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS WYOMING AND LIGHT WIND.  THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE WITH THIS VERTICAL PROFILE WILL BE THE STEEPNESS
OF SHALLOW INVERSIONS OVER THE CENTRAL BASINS AND FAR WEST VALLEYS.
FULL MIXING OF THIS COLUMN WOULD PUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL INTO
THE 60S AT 5KFT WITH NORTHEAST JOHNSON COUNTY AND THE CODY FOOTHILLS
SET AT ONLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW FULL MIXING.  SNOW COVER WILL BE THE
BIGGEST FACTOR ON HOW WARM LOWER CENTRAL BASINS GET IN THIS PATTERN
WITH BETTER MIXING OVER THE WEEKEND LIKELY TO FURTHER ELIMINATE MUCH
OF THE OLD SNOW.  SETTING HIGHS IN THESE AREAS AROUND 20 DEGREES
BELOW FULL MIXING POTENTIAL (MOSTLY 40S FOR HIGHS) SEEMS
REASONABLE.  THE WESTERN VALLEYS WILL SEE THE STEEPEST INVERSIONS
AND THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG FORMATION MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

BAJA UPPER LOW WILL GET KICKED INTO BACKSIDE OF RIDGE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN BEFORE TURNING EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.  GFS CONTINUES TO BE ON
THE FAST AND STRONGER END OF GUIDANCE WITH SYSTEM IMPACTING WYOMING
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.  ECMWF KEEPS THE MAIN TROUGH
BACK OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...SHEARING IT OUT
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY.  SLOWER SOLUTION ALMOST ALWAYS WINS
OUT IN A SW LOW KICKER/KICKEE SCENARIO.  THIS SYSTEM...GIVEN ITS
ORIGINS...WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM (SNOW LEVELS AROUND 6KFT) AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT.

UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY PUTTING WYOMING IN NW FLOW.  SOME WEAK
RIPPLES IN THIS FLOW WILL KEEP A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND NORTH.  BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A STRONGER CLIPPER PUSHING
ACROSS NE WYOMING JUST OUTSIDE THIS PERIOD ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE COWBOY STATE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM SUBLETTE
COUNTY OVER TO NATRONA COUNTY MAINLY. CIGS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
030 TO 060 WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDS DURING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED OFF AND ON DURING THE DAY.
CONDS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FROM ABOUT 21Z
THROUGH 03Z. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP IN THE BASINS AND VALLEYS
OVERNIGHT WITH LCL IFR CONDS POSSIBLY AFFECTING KJAC...KBPI...KPNA
...KRIW AND KWRL. IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
MOVE QUICKLY IN FROM THE NW WITH MORE CLOUDS...AND VERY LIGHT SNOW
OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH PRESSURE LOOMS TO THE WEST WHILE A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS RIPPLE
AROUND THE HIGH TODAY AND SATURDAY. THEY WILL HAVE MINOR IMPACT ON
THE AREA WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME BREEZES IN MOST AREAS.
THE MOUNTAINS MAY SEE SOME SNOW WITH A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWER IN THE LOW ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN CODY DISPATCH AND
CASPER DISPATCH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
WARMING TREND EXPECTED TO LAST INTO NEXT WEEK. WE STILL CAN NOT GET
MIXING HEIGHTS UP TOO MUCH...ESPECIALLY IN LESS WIND PRONE AREAS.
HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH END POOR TO FAIR SMOKE DISPERSAL
POSSIBLE WITH EACH WAVE...EVEN IN THE LESS WINDY AREAS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ALLEN
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...PS
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN









000
FXUS63 KUNR 231720
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1020 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST MN INTO
CENTRAL WY. WATER VAPOR SHOWED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US
WITH A SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN ID...MOVING SOUTHEAST. THIS WAVE IS
FURTHER WEST THAN EXPECTED. RESULT WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHEAST WY/BLACK HILLS THIS MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. CONSIDERED DROPPING POPS
ALTOGETHER...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK QG-FORCING
COULD STILL SUPPORT WEAK -SHRASN. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL AVERAGE
5-10F ABOVE NORMAL. BREEZY SPOTS EXPECTED GIVEN 850MB WIND SPEEDS
OF 20-30KTS AND SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO BRING SOME OF
THAT TO THE GROUND.

TONIGHT/SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM
CENTRAL AB INTO THE MIDWEST. LOW PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THIS TRACK.
BEST MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG/NORTHEAST OF TRACK...BUT PERIOD
OF SYNOPTIC LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS SUGGESTS SOME PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE CWA. SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK
HILLS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE AND CONTINUED PLEASANT.
BREEZY SPOTS EXPECTED AGAIN DURING PEAK DIURNAL CYCLE SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CROSS THE
AREA ON SUNDAY...WITH CLOUDS AND A FEW RAIN OR MORNING SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER FAR NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST SD. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK...FLATTENING OUT AS IT REACHES THE
PLAINS MIDWEEK. THIS WILL BRING EVEN WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA FOR
THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
50S. SOME 60S CERTAINLY LOOK POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN SD. THE FLATTENING RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR MORE
UNSETTLED WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW LATE IN THE WEEK. MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPS AND CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL LIKELY RETURN BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1017 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS...WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...15







000
FXUS63 KUNR 231720
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1020 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST MN INTO
CENTRAL WY. WATER VAPOR SHOWED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US
WITH A SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN ID...MOVING SOUTHEAST. THIS WAVE IS
FURTHER WEST THAN EXPECTED. RESULT WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHEAST WY/BLACK HILLS THIS MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. CONSIDERED DROPPING POPS
ALTOGETHER...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK QG-FORCING
COULD STILL SUPPORT WEAK -SHRASN. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL AVERAGE
5-10F ABOVE NORMAL. BREEZY SPOTS EXPECTED GIVEN 850MB WIND SPEEDS
OF 20-30KTS AND SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO BRING SOME OF
THAT TO THE GROUND.

TONIGHT/SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM
CENTRAL AB INTO THE MIDWEST. LOW PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THIS TRACK.
BEST MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG/NORTHEAST OF TRACK...BUT PERIOD
OF SYNOPTIC LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS SUGGESTS SOME PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE CWA. SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK
HILLS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE AND CONTINUED PLEASANT.
BREEZY SPOTS EXPECTED AGAIN DURING PEAK DIURNAL CYCLE SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CROSS THE
AREA ON SUNDAY...WITH CLOUDS AND A FEW RAIN OR MORNING SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER FAR NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST SD. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK...FLATTENING OUT AS IT REACHES THE
PLAINS MIDWEEK. THIS WILL BRING EVEN WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA FOR
THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
50S. SOME 60S CERTAINLY LOOK POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN SD. THE FLATTENING RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR MORE
UNSETTLED WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW LATE IN THE WEEK. MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPS AND CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL LIKELY RETURN BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1017 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS...WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...15






000
FXUS65 KCYS 231136
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
436 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

TWO WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN SHORT
SUCCESSION TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. NUMERICAL
MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO HAVING MORE MOISTURE SUCH THAT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING TODAY. SHOULD NOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING OF SNOW
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED INTO THE
PLAINS. LOWER ELEVATIONS INTO NEBRASKA MUCH LESS LIKELY TO SEE ANY
PRECIPITATION TODAY...BUT IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
TO SEE AN ISOLATED FLURRY OR SPRINKLE.

SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ONLY TO BE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUD COVER SATURDAY
AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. 12Z NAM
AND GFS SOLUTIONS MUCH DIFFERENT IN PLACEMENT OF THE MAIN ENERGY
WITH THE NAM FARTHER WEST. PLACEMENT WILL ONLY MAKE A MINOR
DIFFERENCE IN WHERE LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.
REGARDLESS OF WHICH SOLUTION IS CORRECT CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION ARE LOW AT BEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

A VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS COULD
CARRY OVER INTO MON MORNING AS THE GFS SUGGESTS A FAIRLY STRONG H85
HEIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE PLAINS AT 12Z. THE EASTERN WIND PRONE AREAS
OF BORDEAUX AND THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE WOULD HAVE THE BEST SHOT
AT HITTING CRITERIA AT THAT TIME...BUT THE STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT IS
PROGGED TO BE WELL TO THE EAST BY THEN. DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING VERY
WIDESPREAD OUT OF THIS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
UTAH AND SOUTHERN IDAHO. OUR CWA WILL BE ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF
THIS FEATURE...GIVING WAY TO EXCELLENT LOW-LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. H7 TEMP PROGS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
4-5 DEG C AT 00Z TUE. MEX GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A HIGH OF 65 AT CHEYENNE
ON MON...AND THAT IS VERY POSSIBLE UNLESS WE GET SOME CIRRUS ON THE
EDGE OF THE RIDGE. TRENDED A BIT WARMER THERE.

STAYING WARM THROUGH MIDWEEK EVEN THOUGH UPPER RIDGING WILL START TO
BREAK DOWN. MODELS BRING AN ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. SHOULD BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND OROGRAPHICS FOR ACCUMULATING MOUNTAIN SNOWS. BUMPED UP
POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE SNOWIES AND SIERRA MADRES
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. WARM AND WINDY AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE. GRADIENTS STRENGTHEN
MARKEDLY OVER THE PLAINS WITH AROUND 50 KTS OF H75 FLOW AFTER 12Z
WED. GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND PLAN VIEW CHARTS SHOW NEAR ADIABATIC
PROFILES UP TO 1-2 KM WITH 50 KTS AVAILABLE TO MIX OVER CYS. THIS
FAVORS A HIGH WIND EVENT...PRIMARILY OVER BORDEAUX AND THE SOUTHERN
LARAMIE RANGE WITH POTENTIAL FOR WINDS MOVING ONTO THE PLAINS WITH A
DEVELOPING BORA BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT. WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO
WATCH THIS AS WE GET CLOSER. THURSDAY WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS WARM AS
THERMAL PROFILES COOL CONSIDERABLY POST-FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 432 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. LOOK
FOR BKN-TO-OVC CIGS TO LOWER TO AROUND 5K FEET AGL THIS MORNING
WITH OCCASIONAL FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS OR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL UNDER ANY SNOW
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 247 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING TODAY
WITH VERY MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS IF ANY. DRY WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...SML




000
FXUS65 KCYS 231136
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
436 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

TWO WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN SHORT
SUCCESSION TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. NUMERICAL
MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO HAVING MORE MOISTURE SUCH THAT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING TODAY. SHOULD NOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING OF SNOW
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED INTO THE
PLAINS. LOWER ELEVATIONS INTO NEBRASKA MUCH LESS LIKELY TO SEE ANY
PRECIPITATION TODAY...BUT IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
TO SEE AN ISOLATED FLURRY OR SPRINKLE.

SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ONLY TO BE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUD COVER SATURDAY
AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. 12Z NAM
AND GFS SOLUTIONS MUCH DIFFERENT IN PLACEMENT OF THE MAIN ENERGY
WITH THE NAM FARTHER WEST. PLACEMENT WILL ONLY MAKE A MINOR
DIFFERENCE IN WHERE LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.
REGARDLESS OF WHICH SOLUTION IS CORRECT CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION ARE LOW AT BEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

A VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS COULD
CARRY OVER INTO MON MORNING AS THE GFS SUGGESTS A FAIRLY STRONG H85
HEIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE PLAINS AT 12Z. THE EASTERN WIND PRONE AREAS
OF BORDEAUX AND THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE WOULD HAVE THE BEST SHOT
AT HITTING CRITERIA AT THAT TIME...BUT THE STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT IS
PROGGED TO BE WELL TO THE EAST BY THEN. DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING VERY
WIDESPREAD OUT OF THIS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
UTAH AND SOUTHERN IDAHO. OUR CWA WILL BE ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF
THIS FEATURE...GIVING WAY TO EXCELLENT LOW-LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. H7 TEMP PROGS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
4-5 DEG C AT 00Z TUE. MEX GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A HIGH OF 65 AT CHEYENNE
ON MON...AND THAT IS VERY POSSIBLE UNLESS WE GET SOME CIRRUS ON THE
EDGE OF THE RIDGE. TRENDED A BIT WARMER THERE.

STAYING WARM THROUGH MIDWEEK EVEN THOUGH UPPER RIDGING WILL START TO
BREAK DOWN. MODELS BRING AN ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. SHOULD BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND OROGRAPHICS FOR ACCUMULATING MOUNTAIN SNOWS. BUMPED UP
POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE SNOWIES AND SIERRA MADRES
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. WARM AND WINDY AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE. GRADIENTS STRENGTHEN
MARKEDLY OVER THE PLAINS WITH AROUND 50 KTS OF H75 FLOW AFTER 12Z
WED. GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND PLAN VIEW CHARTS SHOW NEAR ADIABATIC
PROFILES UP TO 1-2 KM WITH 50 KTS AVAILABLE TO MIX OVER CYS. THIS
FAVORS A HIGH WIND EVENT...PRIMARILY OVER BORDEAUX AND THE SOUTHERN
LARAMIE RANGE WITH POTENTIAL FOR WINDS MOVING ONTO THE PLAINS WITH A
DEVELOPING BORA BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT. WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO
WATCH THIS AS WE GET CLOSER. THURSDAY WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS WARM AS
THERMAL PROFILES COOL CONSIDERABLY POST-FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 432 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. LOOK
FOR BKN-TO-OVC CIGS TO LOWER TO AROUND 5K FEET AGL THIS MORNING
WITH OCCASIONAL FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS OR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL UNDER ANY SNOW
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 247 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING TODAY
WITH VERY MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS IF ANY. DRY WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...SML



000
FXUS63 KUNR 231134
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
434 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST MN INTO
CENTRAL WY. WATER VAPOUR SHOWED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US
WITH A SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN ID...MOVING SOUTHEAST. THIS WAVE IS
FURTHER WEST THAN EXPECTED. RESULT WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHEAST WY/BLACK HILLS THIS MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. CONSIDERED DROPPING POPS
ALTOGETHER...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK QG-FORCING
COULD STILL SUPPORT WEAK -SHRASN. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL AVERAGE
5-10F ABOVE NORMAL. BREEZY SPOTS EXPECTED GIVEN 850MB WIND SPEEDS
OF 20-30KTS AND SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO BRING SOME OF
THAT TO THE GROUND.

TONIGHT/SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM
CENTRAL AB INTO THE MIDWEST. LOW PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THIS TRACK.
BEST MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG/NORTHEAST OF TRACK...BUT PERIOD
OF SYNOPTIC LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS SUGGESTS SOME PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE CWA. SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK
HILLS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE AND CONTINUED PLEASANT.
BREEZY SPOTS EXPECTED AGAIN DURING PEAK DIURNAL CYCLE SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CROSS THE
AREA ON SUNDAY...WITH CLOUDS AND A FEW RAIN OR MORNING SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER FAR NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST SD. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK...FLATTENING OUT AS IT REACHES THE
PLAINS MIDWEEK. THIS WILL BRING EVEN WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA FOR
THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
50S. SOME 60S CERTAINLY LOOK POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN SD. THE FLATTENING RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR MORE
UNSETTLED WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW LATE IN THE WEEK. MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPS AND CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL LIKELY RETURN BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 433 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MOSTLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS THIS MORNING.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS...GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS...WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26







000
FXUS63 KUNR 231134
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
434 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST MN INTO
CENTRAL WY. WATER VAPOUR SHOWED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US
WITH A SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN ID...MOVING SOUTHEAST. THIS WAVE IS
FURTHER WEST THAN EXPECTED. RESULT WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHEAST WY/BLACK HILLS THIS MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. CONSIDERED DROPPING POPS
ALTOGETHER...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK QG-FORCING
COULD STILL SUPPORT WEAK -SHRASN. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL AVERAGE
5-10F ABOVE NORMAL. BREEZY SPOTS EXPECTED GIVEN 850MB WIND SPEEDS
OF 20-30KTS AND SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO BRING SOME OF
THAT TO THE GROUND.

TONIGHT/SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM
CENTRAL AB INTO THE MIDWEST. LOW PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THIS TRACK.
BEST MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG/NORTHEAST OF TRACK...BUT PERIOD
OF SYNOPTIC LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS SUGGESTS SOME PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE CWA. SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK
HILLS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE AND CONTINUED PLEASANT.
BREEZY SPOTS EXPECTED AGAIN DURING PEAK DIURNAL CYCLE SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CROSS THE
AREA ON SUNDAY...WITH CLOUDS AND A FEW RAIN OR MORNING SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER FAR NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST SD. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK...FLATTENING OUT AS IT REACHES THE
PLAINS MIDWEEK. THIS WILL BRING EVEN WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA FOR
THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
50S. SOME 60S CERTAINLY LOOK POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN SD. THE FLATTENING RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR MORE
UNSETTLED WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW LATE IN THE WEEK. MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPS AND CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL LIKELY RETURN BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 433 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MOSTLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS THIS MORNING.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS...GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS...WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26






000
FXUS65 KCYS 231023
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
323 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

TWO WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN SHORT
SUCCESSION TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. NUMERICAL
MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO HAVING MORE MOISTURE SUCH THAT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING TODAY. SHOULD NOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING OF SNOW
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED INTO THE
PLAINS. LOWER ELEVATIONS INTO NEBRASKA MUCH LESS LIKELY TO SEE ANY
PRECIPITATION TODAY...BUT IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
TO SEE AN ISOLATED FLURRY OR SPRINKLE.

SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ONLY TO BE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUD COVER SATURDAY
AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. 12Z NAM
AND GFS SOLUTIONS MUCH DIFFERENT IN PLACEMENT OF THE MAIN ENERGY
WITH THE NAM FARTHER WEST. PLACEMENT WILL ONLY MAKE A MINOR
DIFFERENCE IN WHERE LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.
REGARDLESS OF WHICH SOLUTION IS CORRECT CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION ARE LOW AT BEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

A VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS COULD
CARRY OVER INTO MON MORNING AS THE GFS SUGGESTS A FAIRLY STRONG H85
HEIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE PLAINS AT 12Z. THE EASTERN WIND PRONE AREAS
OF BORDEAUX AND THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE WOULD HAVE THE BEST SHOT
AT HITTING CRITERIA AT THAT TIME...BUT THE STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT IS
PROGGED TO BE WELL TO THE EAST BY THEN. DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING VERY
WIDESPREAD OUT OF THIS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
UTAH AND SOUTHERN IDAHO. OUR CWA WILL BE ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF
THIS FEATURE...GIVING WAY TO EXCELLENT LOW-LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. H7 TEMP PROGS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
4-5 DEG C AT 00Z TUE. MEX GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A HIGH OF 65 AT CHEYENNE
ON MON...AND THAT IS VERY POSSIBLE UNLESS WE GET SOME CIRRUS ON THE
EDGE OF THE RIDGE. TRENDED A BIT WARMER THERE.

STAYING WARM THROUGH MIDWEEK EVEN THOUGH UPPER RIDGING WILL START TO
BREAK DOWN. MODELS BRING AN ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. SHOULD BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND OROGRAPHICS FOR ACCUMULATING MOUNTAIN SNOWS. BUMPED UP
POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE SNOWIES AND SIERRA MADRES
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. WARM AND WINDY AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE. GRADIENTS STRENGTHEN
MARKEDLY OVER THE PLAINS WITH AROUND 50 KTS OF H75 FLOW AFTER 12Z
WED. GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND PLAN VIEW CHARTS SHOW NEAR ADIABATIC
PROFILES UP TO 1-2 KM WITH 50 KTS AVAILABLE TO MIX OVER CYS. THIS
FAVORS A HIGH WIND EVENT...PRIMARILY OVER BORDEAUX AND THE SOUTHERN
LARAMIE RANGE WITH POTENTIAL FOR WINDS MOVING ONTO THE PLAINS WITH A
DEVELOPING BORA BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT. WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO
WATCH THIS AS WE GET CLOSER. THURSDAY WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS WARM AS
THERMAL PROFILES COOL CONSIDERABLY POST-FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1017 PM MST THU JAN 22 2015

SCATTERED CLOUDS...VFR...WILL INCREASE THE REST OF THE NIGHT...
THEN CEILINGS WILL BECOME BROKEN AFTER DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY WITH
LOW END VFR CEILINGS...AND OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCUREMENT WEST
OF INTERSTATE 25. MAY SEE OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES IN SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CEILINGS RISING
FRIDAY EVENING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 247 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING TODAY
WITH VERY MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS IF ANY. DRY WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...SML




000
FXUS65 KCYS 231023
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
323 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

TWO WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN SHORT
SUCCESSION TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. NUMERICAL
MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO HAVING MORE MOISTURE SUCH THAT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING TODAY. SHOULD NOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING OF SNOW
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED INTO THE
PLAINS. LOWER ELEVATIONS INTO NEBRASKA MUCH LESS LIKELY TO SEE ANY
PRECIPITATION TODAY...BUT IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
TO SEE AN ISOLATED FLURRY OR SPRINKLE.

SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ONLY TO BE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUD COVER SATURDAY
AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. 12Z NAM
AND GFS SOLUTIONS MUCH DIFFERENT IN PLACEMENT OF THE MAIN ENERGY
WITH THE NAM FARTHER WEST. PLACEMENT WILL ONLY MAKE A MINOR
DIFFERENCE IN WHERE LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.
REGARDLESS OF WHICH SOLUTION IS CORRECT CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION ARE LOW AT BEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

A VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS COULD
CARRY OVER INTO MON MORNING AS THE GFS SUGGESTS A FAIRLY STRONG H85
HEIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE PLAINS AT 12Z. THE EASTERN WIND PRONE AREAS
OF BORDEAUX AND THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE WOULD HAVE THE BEST SHOT
AT HITTING CRITERIA AT THAT TIME...BUT THE STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT IS
PROGGED TO BE WELL TO THE EAST BY THEN. DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING VERY
WIDESPREAD OUT OF THIS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
UTAH AND SOUTHERN IDAHO. OUR CWA WILL BE ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF
THIS FEATURE...GIVING WAY TO EXCELLENT LOW-LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. H7 TEMP PROGS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
4-5 DEG C AT 00Z TUE. MEX GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A HIGH OF 65 AT CHEYENNE
ON MON...AND THAT IS VERY POSSIBLE UNLESS WE GET SOME CIRRUS ON THE
EDGE OF THE RIDGE. TRENDED A BIT WARMER THERE.

STAYING WARM THROUGH MIDWEEK EVEN THOUGH UPPER RIDGING WILL START TO
BREAK DOWN. MODELS BRING AN ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. SHOULD BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND OROGRAPHICS FOR ACCUMULATING MOUNTAIN SNOWS. BUMPED UP
POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE SNOWIES AND SIERRA MADRES
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. WARM AND WINDY AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE. GRADIENTS STRENGTHEN
MARKEDLY OVER THE PLAINS WITH AROUND 50 KTS OF H75 FLOW AFTER 12Z
WED. GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND PLAN VIEW CHARTS SHOW NEAR ADIABATIC
PROFILES UP TO 1-2 KM WITH 50 KTS AVAILABLE TO MIX OVER CYS. THIS
FAVORS A HIGH WIND EVENT...PRIMARILY OVER BORDEAUX AND THE SOUTHERN
LARAMIE RANGE WITH POTENTIAL FOR WINDS MOVING ONTO THE PLAINS WITH A
DEVELOPING BORA BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT. WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO
WATCH THIS AS WE GET CLOSER. THURSDAY WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS WARM AS
THERMAL PROFILES COOL CONSIDERABLY POST-FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1017 PM MST THU JAN 22 2015

SCATTERED CLOUDS...VFR...WILL INCREASE THE REST OF THE NIGHT...
THEN CEILINGS WILL BECOME BROKEN AFTER DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY WITH
LOW END VFR CEILINGS...AND OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCUREMENT WEST
OF INTERSTATE 25. MAY SEE OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES IN SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CEILINGS RISING
FRIDAY EVENING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 247 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING TODAY
WITH VERY MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS IF ANY. DRY WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...SML




000
FXUS65 KCYS 231023
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
323 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

TWO WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN SHORT
SUCCESSION TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. NUMERICAL
MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO HAVING MORE MOISTURE SUCH THAT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING TODAY. SHOULD NOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING OF SNOW
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED INTO THE
PLAINS. LOWER ELEVATIONS INTO NEBRASKA MUCH LESS LIKELY TO SEE ANY
PRECIPITATION TODAY...BUT IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
TO SEE AN ISOLATED FLURRY OR SPRINKLE.

SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ONLY TO BE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUD COVER SATURDAY
AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. 12Z NAM
AND GFS SOLUTIONS MUCH DIFFERENT IN PLACEMENT OF THE MAIN ENERGY
WITH THE NAM FARTHER WEST. PLACEMENT WILL ONLY MAKE A MINOR
DIFFERENCE IN WHERE LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.
REGARDLESS OF WHICH SOLUTION IS CORRECT CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION ARE LOW AT BEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

A VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS COULD
CARRY OVER INTO MON MORNING AS THE GFS SUGGESTS A FAIRLY STRONG H85
HEIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE PLAINS AT 12Z. THE EASTERN WIND PRONE AREAS
OF BORDEAUX AND THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE WOULD HAVE THE BEST SHOT
AT HITTING CRITERIA AT THAT TIME...BUT THE STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT IS
PROGGED TO BE WELL TO THE EAST BY THEN. DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING VERY
WIDESPREAD OUT OF THIS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
UTAH AND SOUTHERN IDAHO. OUR CWA WILL BE ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF
THIS FEATURE...GIVING WAY TO EXCELLENT LOW-LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. H7 TEMP PROGS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
4-5 DEG C AT 00Z TUE. MEX GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A HIGH OF 65 AT CHEYENNE
ON MON...AND THAT IS VERY POSSIBLE UNLESS WE GET SOME CIRRUS ON THE
EDGE OF THE RIDGE. TRENDED A BIT WARMER THERE.

STAYING WARM THROUGH MIDWEEK EVEN THOUGH UPPER RIDGING WILL START TO
BREAK DOWN. MODELS BRING AN ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. SHOULD BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND OROGRAPHICS FOR ACCUMULATING MOUNTAIN SNOWS. BUMPED UP
POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE SNOWIES AND SIERRA MADRES
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. WARM AND WINDY AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE. GRADIENTS STRENGTHEN
MARKEDLY OVER THE PLAINS WITH AROUND 50 KTS OF H75 FLOW AFTER 12Z
WED. GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND PLAN VIEW CHARTS SHOW NEAR ADIABATIC
PROFILES UP TO 1-2 KM WITH 50 KTS AVAILABLE TO MIX OVER CYS. THIS
FAVORS A HIGH WIND EVENT...PRIMARILY OVER BORDEAUX AND THE SOUTHERN
LARAMIE RANGE WITH POTENTIAL FOR WINDS MOVING ONTO THE PLAINS WITH A
DEVELOPING BORA BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT. WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO
WATCH THIS AS WE GET CLOSER. THURSDAY WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS WARM AS
THERMAL PROFILES COOL CONSIDERABLY POST-FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1017 PM MST THU JAN 22 2015

SCATTERED CLOUDS...VFR...WILL INCREASE THE REST OF THE NIGHT...
THEN CEILINGS WILL BECOME BROKEN AFTER DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY WITH
LOW END VFR CEILINGS...AND OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCUREMENT WEST
OF INTERSTATE 25. MAY SEE OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES IN SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CEILINGS RISING
FRIDAY EVENING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 247 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING TODAY
WITH VERY MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS IF ANY. DRY WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...SML




000
FXUS65 KCYS 231023
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
323 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

TWO WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN SHORT
SUCCESSION TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. NUMERICAL
MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO HAVING MORE MOISTURE SUCH THAT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING TODAY. SHOULD NOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING OF SNOW
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED INTO THE
PLAINS. LOWER ELEVATIONS INTO NEBRASKA MUCH LESS LIKELY TO SEE ANY
PRECIPITATION TODAY...BUT IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
TO SEE AN ISOLATED FLURRY OR SPRINKLE.

SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ONLY TO BE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUD COVER SATURDAY
AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. 12Z NAM
AND GFS SOLUTIONS MUCH DIFFERENT IN PLACEMENT OF THE MAIN ENERGY
WITH THE NAM FARTHER WEST. PLACEMENT WILL ONLY MAKE A MINOR
DIFFERENCE IN WHERE LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.
REGARDLESS OF WHICH SOLUTION IS CORRECT CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION ARE LOW AT BEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

A VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS COULD
CARRY OVER INTO MON MORNING AS THE GFS SUGGESTS A FAIRLY STRONG H85
HEIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE PLAINS AT 12Z. THE EASTERN WIND PRONE AREAS
OF BORDEAUX AND THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE WOULD HAVE THE BEST SHOT
AT HITTING CRITERIA AT THAT TIME...BUT THE STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT IS
PROGGED TO BE WELL TO THE EAST BY THEN. DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING VERY
WIDESPREAD OUT OF THIS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
UTAH AND SOUTHERN IDAHO. OUR CWA WILL BE ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF
THIS FEATURE...GIVING WAY TO EXCELLENT LOW-LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. H7 TEMP PROGS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
4-5 DEG C AT 00Z TUE. MEX GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A HIGH OF 65 AT CHEYENNE
ON MON...AND THAT IS VERY POSSIBLE UNLESS WE GET SOME CIRRUS ON THE
EDGE OF THE RIDGE. TRENDED A BIT WARMER THERE.

STAYING WARM THROUGH MIDWEEK EVEN THOUGH UPPER RIDGING WILL START TO
BREAK DOWN. MODELS BRING AN ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. SHOULD BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND OROGRAPHICS FOR ACCUMULATING MOUNTAIN SNOWS. BUMPED UP
POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE SNOWIES AND SIERRA MADRES
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. WARM AND WINDY AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE. GRADIENTS STRENGTHEN
MARKEDLY OVER THE PLAINS WITH AROUND 50 KTS OF H75 FLOW AFTER 12Z
WED. GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND PLAN VIEW CHARTS SHOW NEAR ADIABATIC
PROFILES UP TO 1-2 KM WITH 50 KTS AVAILABLE TO MIX OVER CYS. THIS
FAVORS A HIGH WIND EVENT...PRIMARILY OVER BORDEAUX AND THE SOUTHERN
LARAMIE RANGE WITH POTENTIAL FOR WINDS MOVING ONTO THE PLAINS WITH A
DEVELOPING BORA BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT. WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO
WATCH THIS AS WE GET CLOSER. THURSDAY WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS WARM AS
THERMAL PROFILES COOL CONSIDERABLY POST-FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1017 PM MST THU JAN 22 2015

SCATTERED CLOUDS...VFR...WILL INCREASE THE REST OF THE NIGHT...
THEN CEILINGS WILL BECOME BROKEN AFTER DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY WITH
LOW END VFR CEILINGS...AND OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCUREMENT WEST
OF INTERSTATE 25. MAY SEE OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES IN SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CEILINGS RISING
FRIDAY EVENING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 247 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING TODAY
WITH VERY MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS IF ANY. DRY WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...SML




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