000
FXAK67 PAJK 152353
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
353 PM AKDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK BUT VERY WELL DEFINED LOW CAME ASHORE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF SITKA. CLOUD PATTERNS IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY AS WELL AS MODEL DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A
VERY COLD LOW LEVEL AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW. HAVE HAD
NUMEROUS REPORTS OF SNOW MIXED IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY, AND LAST NIGHT BOTH HOONAH AND YAKUTAT RECORDED STRAIGHT
SNOW. RADAR DATA CONTINUES TO PAINT DENSE SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW TRACKS FURTHER INLAND, SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD EASE UP THIS AFTERNOON, SO HAVE LIMITED POPS TO LIKELY OR
LESS FROM THIS LOW TONIGHT. FARTHER NORTH, A SHORT WAVE WILL DROP
SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING, KEEPING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS GOING BEHIND THE LOW BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COLD LOW LEVEL AIR WILL SUPPORT MIXED PRECIP
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, SO HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF THIS FOR
MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE INLAND FROM THE OUTER COAST. NO
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED ANYWHERE EXCEPT ALONG THE HAINES AND
KLONDIKE HIGHWAYS, WHERE UP TO AN INCH MAY FALL.

 APART FROM SHOWER ACTIVITY DEPARTING TO THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW,
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF AND GENERATE WESTERLY
SMALL CRAFT WINDS FOR THE OUTER COAST SOUTH OF CAPE FAIRWEATHER.
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 8 TO 10 FOOT RANGE. SMALL CRAFT WINDS
MAKING IT TO THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN ENTRANCES OF CHATHAM STRAIT,
SUMNER STRAIT, AND CLARENCE STRAIT BY LATE MORNING. THE BUILDING
RIDGE AND WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD ALSO PRODUCE SOME CLEARING
TOMORROW FOR ZONE 17 AS WELL AS THE EASTERN GULF, BUT PUBLIC
ZONES AND INNER CHANNELS SOUTH OF CAPE FAIRWEATHER ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUD TO OVERCAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST PERIOD.

 USED NAM FOR UPDATES TO PRESSURE AND WIND. ADJUSTED TEMPS WITH
BIAS CORRECTED GFS AND SREF. USED A SUPER-BLEND FOR POP AND QPF.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE.


.LONG TERM...MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER WILL BE IN-STORE FOR THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEK WITH MOSTLY DRY WITH SOME SUNNY
BREAKS AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. NORTH UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
KEEP THE OFFSHORE FLOW DOMINATE WITH A UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NE BC
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. THIS ALONG WITH NO MUCH OF A SURFACE
FEATURE WILL KEEP THE PANHANDLE OF THE DRY WITH JUST SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF THURSDAY AND WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KT. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY GET TO BE
AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR GETTING INTO THE MID 50S AND
IN THE MID 40S AT NIGHT.

FOR THE WEEKEND THERE IS SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BUT IT MAINLY IN
THE DETAILS AS THE GENERAL FLOW IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT. UPPER LEVEL
TROF WILL LIFT OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF
LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY MORNING AND INCREASE THE THREAT OF THE PRECIP
AS THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND WEATHER FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA.
THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCES AS THE GFS IS MUCH SLOWER THAN THE EC SO
CONFIDENCE IN ON THE LOWER SIDE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF/NORTH PACIFIC WILL LIFT WEAKENING WEATHER SYSTEMS
INTO THE GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK TO KEEP RAIN ON THE LIKELY SIDE.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ033-035-036-041>043-051-052.

&&

$$

FRITSCH/ABJ

000
FXAK68 PAFC 152200
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND FORECAST TRENDS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM ARE SIMILAR ON THE MAIN FEATURES.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
.500 MB...A BLOCKING PATTERN SETS UP OVER ALASKA WED. THE COLD UPPER
LOW MOVED ACROSS THE GULF TO OVER SE ALASKA AND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA WED. A BUILDING RIDGE MOVES OVER THE MAINLAND
WED AND HOLDS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH
PACIFIC INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS THU MORNING.

.SURFACE...A WEAK TROUGH BUILDS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AND HOLDS
THROUGH FRI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE MAINLAND AND GULF OF
ALASKA THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT WARMING TEMPERATURES TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE MAINLAND WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE.

A LOW OVER THE EAST CENTRAL BERING SEA MOVES TO NEAR THE GULF OF
ANADYR AND WEAKENS ON WED. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WEAKENS AS IT MOVES
TOWARD THE SW COAST TONIGHT THEN LIFTS NORTH WED. A LOW CENTER SOUTH
OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WEAKENS AND BREAKS UP INTO A COUPLE OF
CENTERS NEAR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN BERING SEA ON THU.
THE FRONT ELONGATES SE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC THU.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
A WEATHER DISTRUBANCE WHICH BROUGHT SNOW TO THE EASTERN COPPER RIVER
BASIN OVERNIGHT HAS MOVED INTO WESTERN CANADA. THE BUILDING RIDGE
WILL BRING WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED...THOUGH
THERE MAY SOME LOCALLY BRISK SEA BREEZES. INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
PRODUCE BRISK AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COPPER RIVER AND OUT OF THE
KNIK VALLEY. GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH DRY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE
FIRE DANGER.

.SW ALASKA
WARMING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A WEAK
WEATHER FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING CLOUDS
AND INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN TONIGHT AND WED...MAINLY ALONG THE
CAOSTS. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. BRISK SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AK PEN OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SERIES OF
WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FAIRLY DRY
INTO THE WEEKEND. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL SET UP ALONG THE AK RANGE AND
SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATE
IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD WARNING AND WATCH ZONE 155.
MARINE...GALES 150 155 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC MAY 12

000
FXAK69 PAFG 152014
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1214 PM AKDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.DISCUSSION...

WEAK UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF AKZ222 WILL MOVE TO ABOUT 50
MILES WEST OF EAGLE BY WED AFTERNOON...AND TO ABOUT 50 MILES
SOUTH OF NORTHWAY BY THU AFTERNOON. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST
COAST WILL BUILD INTO AN EXPANSIVE HIGH CENTERED NEAR HUSLIA
BY THU AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR
WILL BE GRADUALLY SUPPRESSED AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE ALASKA
MAINLAND. BY THU AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN PARTS OF AKZ224 AND AKZ226.

AREAS OF NIGHTTIME STRATUS AND FOG LIKELY ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST
TONIGHT...BUT ANY STRATUS FOG WHICH DEVELOPS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE
EARLY IN THE DAY WED WITH A LITTLE DAYTIME WARMING...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL ASSIST FROM OFFSHORE WIND FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PARTS OF THE ARCTIC COAST.

OVER THE BERING SEA...998 MB LOW ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
ST MATTHEW ISLAND MOVING TO 250 MILES WEST OF GAMBELL
BY EARLY WED MORNING FILLING TO 1003 MB. PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS SYSTEM SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE BERING STRAIT AND
WESTERN PARTS OF THE WEST COAST ZONES TONIGHT AND WED.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED...
TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING...ISOLD TSTMS AKZ218-AKZ220-ERN AKZ221-
 AKZ223-AKZ224-ERN AKZ225-AKZ226.
WED AFTERNOON/EVENING...ISOLD TSTMS RN AKZ218-ERN AKZ220-EXTREME
 ERN AKZ223-AKZ224-ERN AKZ226.
FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING...ISOLD TSTMS SERN AKZ224-ERN AKZ226.

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST...WEAK UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BE
THE PREDOMINANT PATTERN OVER MOST OF NORTHERN ALASKA IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...THERE
LITTLE CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE
MEANS ON THE HANDLING OF THE SMALLER FEATURES. HPC MEDIUM
RANGE FORECAST INCORPORATES A BLEND OF SEVERAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS...WITH YESTERDAYS 00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF RUN
BEING GIVEN A LITTLE MORE WEIGHT FOR DAY 4.

&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FROM FORT YUKON TO EAGLE TO BEAVER
CREEK WILL REMAIN STATIONARY WEAKENING SLOWLY THROUGH WED. THIS
TROUGH WILL PROVIDE GENERAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT BUILDS AND EXPANDS OVER NORTHERN ALASKA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO PROBLEM AREAS AT THIS TIME. THE ICE JAM WHICH WAS UPSTREAM
FROM KALTAG RELEASED MON AFTERNOON.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220.

&&

$$

RF MAY 12

000
FXAK67 PAJK 151312
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
512 AM AKDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.SHORT TERM...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE LOOP REVEALS A WEAKENING LOW
IN THE NORTHEAST GULF SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHEAST WITH A SERIES OF
TROUGHS WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW CENTER. SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS
MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH THE LOW TRACK ACROSS THE OUTSIDE COASTAL
WATERS. A WEAKENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE DRIFTS INTO CANADA AND MAINTAINS SOUTH WIND UP TO 20
KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. WEAK SNOW BANDS OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF COAST HAVE MOVED INLAND AWAY FROM YAKUTAT
AREA...LEAVING AREAS OF FOG FORMED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS. TWO TENTH OF AN INCH SNOW FELL OVERNIGHT AT YAKUTAT AIRPORT.

MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT AND SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
WEAKENING LOW IN THE NORTHEAST GULF SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE EASTERN GULF THIS MORNING...THEN DISSIPATES OVER THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. REFRESHED THE INHERITED
FORECAST PACKAGE WITH THE GFS AND NAM FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AS THE LOW DISSIPATES OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE...WINDS WILL
BECOME GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE FORECAST
DOMAIN...EXCEPT THE SOUTHERN OUTSIDE WATERS WHERE SMALL FETCH AREA
REMAINS ACTIVE AND GENERATE SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH
TONIGHT. BEHIND THE DISSIPATING LOW...THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST
WILL SEE DECREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING...LEADING QUITE COLD
OVERNIGHT MERCURY READINGS DOWN TO THE UPPER 20S. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BEHIND THE DISSIPATING LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
CENTRAL GULF THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPAND EAST INTO THE EASTERN GULF
TONIGHT.


&&

.LONG TERM.../ WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY / THE PROMISED BLOCKING
RIDGE FINALLY MANAGES TO GET ESTABLISHED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE LINGERING SHOWER ESSENTIALLY TAPERING
OFF BY THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE GULF. THE RIDGE WILL BE TEMPORARY
AND VERY LARGE BUT A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SUPPRESSED BY THE INCOMING SYSTEM
ACROSS THE GULF THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

OVERALL THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE HAVING A FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THE RIDGE AND INCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM TO EARLY FRIDAY. THE
BEGIN TO HAVE DIFFERENCES ON A DEVELOPING FEATURE ON THE FRONT. AS
A RESULT THEY ARE LEADING TO A DIFFERENT RAIN FOOTPRINT AND WIND
FIELD FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. I TRIED NOT TO PICK ONE
OVER THE OTHERS BUT USED SOME OF THE HPC GUIDANCE FOR THAT TIME
FRAME. OVERALL THE WINDS FOR THE WEDNESDAY TO THE FRIDAY TIME
FRAME SHOULD BE PRIMARILY UNDER SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AND THE
STRONGEST OF THOSE WILL BE OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS...THOUGH
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL MAY SEE SOME OF THE 20 KT WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THURSDAY AND SLIDING
TO BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES BY MONDAY.


.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-022-041>043-051-052.

&&

$$

AHN/BEZENEK

000
FXAK69 PAFG 151256
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
456 AM AKDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
RIDGING OVER WESTERN ALASKA WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR
TODAY AND OVER MOST OF THE CWA BY THURSDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR WILL MOVE NEAR THE ALCAN BORDER BY
WEDNESDAY AND BE THE FOCAL POINT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

THE ARCTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LOW STRATUS CEILINGS,
SCATTERED FLURRIES AND AREAS OF FOG. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

THE INTERIOR WILL HAVE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SHIFTING FURTHER EAST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SOME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.

WESTERN ALASKA WILL ALSO SEE WARMING TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSTLY DRY TODAY WITH RAIN AND SNOW
MOVING INTO THE WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ST LAWRENCE
ISLAND WILL SEE PERIODS OF MIXED RAIN AND SNOW. AREAS OF FOG
AROUND KOTZEBUE TODAY AND TONIGHT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CONTINUED VERY DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS. MIN RH VALUES
IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE INTERIOR TODAY...MOSTLY IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR ON WEDNESDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE YUKON RIVER AT NULATO IS
CANCELLED.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.
&&

$$

RL MAY 12

000
FXAK68 PAFC 151256
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE EASTERN BERING AND MUCH OF
MAINLAND AK THIS MORNING...WITH CUT-OFF LOWS OVER THE BERING NEAR THE
DATELINE...AND OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF AK. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS ARE APPROACHING SE AK AND JUST NORTH OF ADAK...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MAINLAND AK AND THE EASTERN BERING.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT. THE LOW IN THE BERING WILL MOVE TO
EASTERN RUSSIA ON WED...AND A SECOND LOW WILL MOVE TO THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS WED. THIS LOW WILL PINWHEEL EAST ALONG THE CHAIN THROUGH
FRI...WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONT ALSO ENTERING THE WESTERN GULF ON FRI.
WHILE THIS IS HAPPENING THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLAND AK BUT
OVER THE GULF THE RIDGE WILL PINCH UP AGAINST THE NORTHEAST GULF
COAST. THE FORECAST UTILIZES THE GFS AND EC IN THE SHORT TERM AND
WHEN THESE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DEVIATE IN THE EXTENDED
PERIODS...HPC GUIDANCE IS USED.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

IN THE WEST...WIND AND RAIN WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE SECOND LOW MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA ON FRI.

SW OF THE AK RANGE...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ON WED...WIND AND RAIN WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE COAST AND CONTINUE
THROUGH FRI AS INTERIOR AREAS REMAIN GENERALLY DRY.

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK RANGE...SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE
WRANGELLS TODAY...OTHERWISE...EXCEPT FOR A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS TODAY AND WED MAINLY ALONG THE AK RANGE...THE AREA WILL BE
DRY AND WARM THROUGH FRI.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FAIRLY DRY
INTO THE WEEKEND. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL SET UP ALONG THE AK RANGE AND
SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATE
IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 155
FIRE WEATHER...NONE
HYDRO...FLOOD WATCH AND FLOOD WARNING ZONE 155

DS MAY 12

000
FXAK67 PAJK 142354
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
354 PM AKDT MON MAY 14 2012

.SHORT TERM...1012 MB LOW 120 NM S OF PAMD SHOWS A OCFNT OF AT
LEAST TWO WRAPS THAT WILL REACH ITS GREATEST DEPTH OF ABOUT
1010 MB OVERNIGHT WHILE TRACKING ESE TOWARD PASI. THE NEAR-CORE
CONDITIONS INCLUDE ENOUGH BAROCLINICITY TO PERMIT THE ADDITIONAL
DEEPENING AS WELL AS GIVING GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT BEFORE THE CYCLONE EVOLUTION INCLUDES WEAKENING. THE COLD
AMS NEAR THE CORE ALSO HAS THICKNESSES AND 850 MB TEMPS LOW ENOUGH
TO HAVE SNOW MIXED INTO THE PRECIP TO SEA LEVEL FOR MOST LOCATIONS
NW OF A PASI-PAJN LN TONIGHT.

MOST IMPORTANT CHANGES TO SHORT-RANCE FORECASTS: FIRST IS FOR
WINDS 5-10 KT HIGHER INC SCA ADDED TO MOST MARINE ZONES IN INNER
CHANNELS FOR TUE. SECOND IS THE SNOW AT LEAST MIXED IN FOR SEVERAL
ZONES, ALBEIT THE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ONE INCH OR LESS NEAR SEA
LEVEL.

WARM BIAS 1000-975 MB WAS SHOWN ON GFS AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS
WHEN COMPARED TO THE ACTUAL RAOB. (NO MDCARS SINCE 02Z LAST
EVENING). INITIALIZATIONS OF SEVERAL FIELDS FAVORED THE EC.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE WEAKENED BY TUESDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STILL AFFECT WEATHER LOCALLY. A VORT MAX WILL
WRAP AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CAUSING SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...TRACKING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
AS THE LOW MOVES EAST THROUGH B.C. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL BE
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED AND DIMINISHING BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A
DRYER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GULF. THIS RIDGE WILL
HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A NWLY FLOW AT 850MB...HOWEVER A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH DAYTIME CONVECTION
AND ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSING ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY SEES A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GULF FROM THE
WEST. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW THIS LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE GULF...HOWEVER
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE RAIN WITH THE ASSOC FRONTAL SYSTEM
EVENTUALLY REACHING THE PANHANDLE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS SPLITS THE
LOW INTO TWO CENTERS AND GIVES MORE ENERGY TO THE NEW LOW WHICH IS
FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS WOULD DELAY RAIN MOVING
INLAND UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD BRING RAIN
TO THE COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF WAS FAVORED SLIGHTLY
MORE TODAY FOR ITS RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...HOWEVER MODEL DIFFERENCES
BRING FORECASTER CONFIDENCE DOWN A BIT. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE COASTAL AREAS ON SATURDAY THEN BRING LIKELY
RAIN INTO THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SUNSHINE ARE IN THE FORECAST MID WEEK WITH
THE RIDGE IN THE GULF. AS A RESULT HAVE TEMPERATURES INCREASING
SLIGHTLY EACH DAY AND GETTING BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F BY
THE WEEKEND. PARTLY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DURING OVERNIGHT PERIODS
HOWEVER WILL KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S. WINDS DURING THIS
TIME ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT...SO THERE COULD BE SOME
FOG/FROST ISSUES DURING EARLY MORNING HOURS IN THE COOLER NORTHERN
VALLEYS.

OVERALL CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST WERE MINOR AS THINGS LOOKED ON
TRACK. MADE SOME SLIGHT TWEAKS IN WIND DIRECTIONS TO MATCH UP WITH
PRESSURE GRADIENTS...HOWEVER THESE COULD EASILY FLIP IN THE OTHER
DIRECTION AS WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
WILL ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN WIND SHIFTS ON THE DAYS WITH MORE
SUNSHINE.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-022-032>035-042-043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041.

&&

$$

JBT/HANNON

000
FXAK68 PAFC 142200
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKDT MON MAY 14 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE ADEQUATELY HANDLING THE COLD UPPER LOW
AND SURFACE FEATURE OVER THE GULF AND THE BUILDING RIDGE THAT FOLLOWS
THROUGH THE WEEK. MODEL CONSISTENCY IS MORE PROBLEMATIC IN THE WEST.
THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SIMILAR FORECAST TRENDS ON THE 12Z RUN...BUT
ARE STILL EXPERIENCING RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY PROBLEMS WITH THE
HANDLING OF THE LOW COMPLEX IMPACTING THE ALEUTIANS TUE AND WED.

.500MB...OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS ALASKA OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE COLD UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA MOVES TO
OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE TUE MORNING THEN INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA
TUE NIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA
AMPLIFIES AS IT MOVES TO OVER THE AK PEN/WESTERN ALASKA WED MORNING.
THIS RIDGE SHOWS VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT THROUGH THU AFTERNOON. FURTHER
WEST...COLD AIR AND DIGGING TROUGH MOVING OUT OF RUSSIA COMES IN
PHASE WITH A WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC AND SETS UP A
FAIRLY INTENSE LOW CENTER OVER THE EAST ALEUTIANS WED AFTERNOON. THE
RIDGE OVER THE MAINLAND SHOWS SIGNS OF WEAKENING LATER IN THE WEEK.

.SURFACE...THE LOW CENTER OVER THE GULF MOVES EAST AND WEAKENS. A
WEAK INVERTED THROUGH HOWEVER LINGERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF. TEMPS WARM ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO AROUND 00C BY THU.
CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH A CAPPING HIGH AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVING ACROSS THE
MAINLAND.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH
TONIGHT. A DEFORMATION AXIS SETTING UP OVER THE EASTERN COPPER RIVER
BASIN SHOULD PRODUCE MEASURABLE SNOWFALL TONIGHT...THEN SHOULD TAPER
OFF TUE. WARMER AND DRIER AIR MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S...SOME 60S INLAND. AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION ARE STILL POSSIBLE TUE AND WED...MAINLY ALONG THE
ALASKA RANGE AND COPPER RIVER BASIN. WINDS IN GENERAL SHOULD BE LIGHT
EXCEPT FOR LOCALLY BRISK SEA BREEZES.

.SW ALASKA...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AREAS THIS EVENING WITH
STATUS AND FOG DOMINATING THE WEATHER ALONG THE COASTS. A WEAKENING
FRONTAL THROUGH APPROACHING THE SW COAST MAY BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
AND SNOW TO THE DELTA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT GENERALLY DRIER AND WARMER
AIR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH A SERIES OF LOWS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WILL CONTINUE. TEMPS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM OVER MUCH OF THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS
WITH BRISK SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH WED...THROUGH THE FAR WEST
ALEUTIANS WILL COOL OFF TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH THE ONSET OF NORTHERLY
WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION.


.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD WATCH AND FLOOD WARNING ZONE 155.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC MAY 12

000
FXAK69 PAFG 142012
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1212 PM AKDT MON MAY 14 2012

.DISCUSSION...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WITH WEAK FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER MOST OF
NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY GIVING
WAY TO RIDGING BUILDING INITIALLY OVER THE WEST COAST AND
EXPANDING OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THU. A WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR WILL MOVE TO
THE EASTERN INTERIOR TUE AND TO NEAR THE ALCAN BORDER
IN THE NORTHEASTERN INTERIOR WED.

SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CHANDALAR LAKE
AREA TO NEAR CHICKEN AND SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE YUKON
TERRITORY THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD TUE...WEAKENING AND BECOMING POORLY DEFINED BY
WED AFTERNOON.

THE WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT AND THE SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IN A DRY BUT MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR WILL BE DRY.

MAINLY ISOLATED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AND OVER MOST THE EASTERN INTERIOR TUE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. FOR WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ISOLATED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN INTERIOR.

A WEAK FLOW PATTERN DOMINATED BY WEAK UPPER RIDGING APPEARS
TO BE THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT
PREDICTABILITY IS NOT HIGH AS THERE IS CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY
BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS IN THE
FORECAST OF SMALLER SCALE FEATURES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RH WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW 30 PERCENT AT MANY LOCATIONS IN
THE INTERIOR...WITH A FEW SITES GOING BELOW 20 PERCENT. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SO NO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR WILL BE DRY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 4 PM TODAY FOR THE
YUKON RIVER FROM UPRIVER OF KALTAG TO KOYUKUK.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ216.

&&

$$

RF MAY 12

000
FXAK67 PAJK 141326
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
526 AM AKDT MON MAY 14 2012

.SHORT TERM...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE LOOP REVEALS A NEARLY
STATIONARY LOW...ABOUT 1009 MB...IN THE NORTHERN GULF WITH AN
OCCLUDED FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF...SLOWLY APPROACHING TO THE NORTHEAST GULF.
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL PASSAGE...MODERATE RAIN
SHOWERS...BRIEFLY MIXING WITH SNOW...MOVES OVER YAKUTAT AREA. A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PATCHY FOG. MODERATE
SOUTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS MAINTAINED UP TO 20 KNOT SOUTH WIND
OVER THE NORTHERN MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. ROUGH SEAS UP TO 10 FEET PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTHERN
OUTSIDE WATERS.

MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
QUASI STATIONARY LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF WEAKENS AND SLOWLY
DRIFTS EASTWARD TO THE NORTHEAST GULF THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
REFRESHED THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE WITH THE GFS AND NAM FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED OCCLUSION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING. BEHIND THE
TRAILING EDGE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD OVER THE GULF.

ALONG WITH THE LOW TRACK INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF...SMALL CRAFT
WINDS AND SEAS WILL WRAP AROUND THE LOW CENTER AND SPREAD
SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN OUTSIDE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY COLD TONIGHT FOR THE NORTHEAST GULF
COAST WITH MOSTLY CONVECTIVE CELLS MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE. SNOW LEVEL WILL DECREASE TO AS LOW AS 40 FEET OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT AND CHANCE OF SNOW MIXING WITH
RAIN SHOWERS FOR YAKUTAT AREA CANNOT BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY.


&&

.LONG TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF AND INTO NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA EARLY TUESDAY
WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL
PANHANDLE BEFORE TAPERING OFF. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL LEAD TO A
RESPITE OF THE SEMI CONTINUOUS BANDS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS FOR THE
PANHANDLE FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. COASTAL WATERS SHOULD SEE A WEST
TO NORTHWEST WIND ALONG THE COAST THAT WILL GENERALLY BE TRYING TO
DRY OUT THE PANHANDLE. NOT SURE HOW MUCH CLEARING OF SKIES WE
OCCURRING WITH THE RIDGE AND NORTHWEST FLOW...THOUGH THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE PANHANDLE SHOULD SEE THE BETTER CHANCE OF THAT.

BY THURSDAY A SHORT WAVE WILL DROPPING SOUTH FROM ALONG THE ALCAN
BORDER AND THIS MAY TRY AND SPIN UP A SMALL LOW IN THE NORTHEAST
GULF BY FRIDAY AND SPARK SOME SHOWER ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE...BUT AT PRESENT MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE NEGLIGIBLE ON
THIS. EXPECT A WASHING OUT FRONT TO SHEER OUT OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF FRIDAY WHILE ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVES AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF
THE LARGE LOW ALONG THE ALEUTIANS TO PUSH ANOTHER FRONT INTO THE
SOUTHEAST GULF OVER THE LATER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE TO ABOUT FRIDAY AND IT LOWERS
TO AVERAGE OR LESS BY THE START OF NEXT DUE TRYING TO PIN DOWN
SPECIFIC WAVE LEADING THE FRONTAL BANDS AT THAT TIME RANGE.


.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ042-043-051-052.

&&

$$

AHN/BEZENEK

000
FXAK68 PAFC 141300
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT MON MAY 14 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA THIS
MORNING WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS TO NEAR THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. RIDGING ALSO
PERSISTS OVER WESTERN CANADA. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW IS BENEATH THE
GULF UPPER LOW. ANOTHER LOW IS SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS...WITH
A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST OF AK AND THE AKPEN. HIGH PRESSURE IS
ALSO OVER SE AK.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHERN BERING TUE NIGHT AND
DISSIPATE. A SECOND LOW WILL MOVE TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TUE
EVENING...PINWHEEL FOR A DAY AND THEN TAKE AN EASTWARD TRAJECTORY
ALONG 50 N...REACHING THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF ON SAT.

THE GULF LOW WILL MOVE INLAND OVER SE AK TUE MORNING. IN ITS WAKE THE
RIDGE OVER WESTERN AK WILL SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE STATE AND GULF BY
TUE AFTERNOON...AND PERSIST INTO FRI.

THE FORECAST UTILIZES THE GFS WITH SOME EC UNTIL BLENDING WITH HPC
GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

IN THE WEST...RAIN AND WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS
TODAY...AND THEN A SECOND ROUND ARRIVES WITH THE SECOND LOW AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTS TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI.

FOR SW AK...SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS...AND A POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY...ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A DRYING
TREND THEN LASTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK OVER THE INTERIOR...BUT
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT COASTAL SECTIONS DURING THE SAME
PERIOD.

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK RANGE...AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH WED...WITH SOME THUNDER POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN AK
RANGE TODAY. A GENERAL DRYING TREND WILL THEN AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

WIND AND RAIN WILL DIMINISH BY THE WEEKEND FOR THE WEST. FOR SW AK
THE REESTABLISHMENT OF A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE AK RANGE WILL SERVE
AS A CONVECTIVE FOCUS NEXT WEEKEND. SE OF THE AK RANGE WILL BE
GENERALLY DRY UNTIL THE THERMAL TROUGH FORMS A CONVECTIVE FOCUS NEXT
WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 172
FIRE WEATHER...NONE
HYDRO...FLOOD WATCH AND FLOOD WARNING 155

DS MAY 12

000
FXAK69 PAFG 141249
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
449 AM AKDT MON MAY 14 2012

.DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AN UPPER LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE EAST AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA AND INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE SURFACE FEATURES A LOW IN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR WHICH WILL
MOVE NORTH OF BARROW THIS AFTERNOON. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE EAST TO THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA
ALSO THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER MOST THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOG WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES AND AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL
PERSIST OVER THE ARCTIC COAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S. WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH
TODAY WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

THE NORTHWEST COAST WILL HAVE AREAS OF FOG THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLOWLY THROUGH
THE WEEK. INCREASING WINDS AND A CHANCE OF SNOW OVER ST LAWRENCE
ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT SPREADING TO THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MIN RH VALUES RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S TO THE MID 30S
BUT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE YUKON RIVER FROM
UPRIVER OF KALTAG TO KOYUKUK. A FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR NULATO
ALSO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ216.
&&

$$

RL MAY 12